ATM - A2 Milk Corporation Limited

[sb9]

Well, clear all decks for tomorrow's announcement from company.

Guess most of numbers are given, its more around the commentary from Jayne re geographical breakdown (China, US, UK, SEA and Korea), future strategic direction, any capital management news (unlikely) and something totally left field that no one is anticipating.

[Muppett]

Well, clear all decks for tomorrow's announcement from company.

Guess most of numbers are given, its more around the commentary from Jayne re geographical breakdown (China, US, UK, SEA and Korea), future strategic direction, any capital management news (unlikely) and something totally left field that no one is anticipating.

One sentence will either drive the SP up or down.

[whatsup]

Well, clear all decks for tomorrow's announcement from company.

Guess most of numbers are given, its more around the commentary from Jayne re geographical breakdown (China, US, UK, SEA and Korea), future strategic direction, any capital management news (unlikely) and something totally left field that no one is anticipating.

If ATM declares a dividend watch for a sharp upward spike !

[Ggcc]

If ATM declares a dividend watch for a sharp upward spike !
All analysts expect a dividend in this announcement of at least 10 cents. So I guess the share will spike aye 😉

[Muppett]

All analysts expect a dividend in this announcement of at least 10 cents. So I guess the share will spike aye 

Which analysts?
And what happens after the spike?

If there was an expectation wouldn't the SP be doing a bit better?

[BlackPeter]

All analysts expect a dividend in this announcement of at least 10 cents. So I guess the share will spike aye ��

Do they? Analyst consensus on 4-traders is 5 cent:

https://www.marketscreener.com/A2-MILK-COMPANY-LTD-11384022/financials/

[minimoke]

Do they? Analyst consensus on 4-traders is 5 cent:

https://www.marketscreener.com/A2-MILK-COMPANY-LTD-11384022/financials/5 cents is nothign to get excited about - other than it is a first dividnce. I wouldn't be too worried if they stashed the cash and invested it some where they can do better than my paltry 5 cents. Its the dividend in 5 years I am after.

[Muppett]

5 cents is nothign to get excited about - other than it is a first dividnce. I wouldn't be too worried if they stashed the cash and invested it some where they can do better than my paltry 5 cents. Its the dividend in 5 years I am after.

What a dividend assist in abating or stopping the wild volatility in the SP?

[Ggcc]

Do they? Analyst consensus on 4-traders is 5 cent:

https://www.marketscreener.com/A2-MILK-COMPANY-LTD-11384022/financials/
I was looking at 2019 not 2018 so I stand corrected. I do agree with minimoke that anything 5 cents or less they should keep to expand operations. I don’t need the dividend that gets taxed, give me capital gains that does not get taxed

[minimoke]

What a dividend assist in abating or stopping the wild volatility in the SP?
I wouldn't think so. Too many people having fun. Even today low = $10.93, high = $11.21. Whats five cents?

[sb9]

5 cents is nothign to get excited about - other than it is a first dividnce. I wouldn't be too worried if they stashed the cash and invested it some where they can do better than my paltry 5 cents. Its the dividend in 5 years I am after.

Okay, let's do the maths.

Cash on Hand at 30/06/2017 (FY 2017) - $121mln

Cash on Hand at 31/12/2017 (FH 2018) - $240mln

They have effectively doubled their cash reserves (or 119mln) within 6 months. And assuming similar growth rate you think they'll be holding close to $330mln ($240+$90) at the least as at 30/06/2018 (FY 2018).

Out of $330mln available, they've spent $162mln to take further stake in SML. That leaves them with $168mln on hand.

A 5c divvy would see an outgoing of $36mln and 10c would be around $72mln.

Say, if they go with 10c divvy they would still have further $96mln ($168-$72) to spend on other things plus ongoing addition to cash reserves as they sell more.

In summary 10c is feasible and very affordable for company, should they decide to pay a divvy. Guess it depends on what Board sees best value for shareholder funds.

Not long to go to know that, another 16 hours or so.

PS: Hope my numbers make sense and are correct. Happy to be pulled up though.

[winner69]

Well, clear all decks for tomorrow's announcement from company.

Guess most of numbers are given, its more around the commentary from Jayne re geographical breakdown (China, US, UK, SEA and Korea), future strategic direction, any capital management news (unlikely) and something totally left field that no one is anticipating.

Jayne will dazzle her audience tomorrow — she will be a star — and we’ll all be happy as

[Muppett]

Jayne will dazzle her audience tomorrow — she will be a star — and we’ll all be happy as

Is it Jayne or the numbers who will dazzle?

[minimoke]

Jayne will dazzle her audience tomorrow — she will be a star — and we’ll all be happy as
The only question I want answered is "When can we expect $14.62 again?"

[Beagle]

The only question I want answered is "When can we expect $14.62 again?"

Its been a pretty long six months hasn't it !

[Muppett]

The only question I want answered is "When can we expect $14.62 again?"

When Jayne dazzles us with a whopper of an announcement.

[winner69]

The only question I want answered is "When can we expect $14.62 again?"

Jayne pretty smart but she can’t answer that question

Maybe $14.62 by end of week .....not really that far away for such a volatile stock

[Muppett]

Jayne pretty smart but she can’t answer that question

Maybe $14.62 by end of week .....not really that far away for such a volatile stock

What good news are you expecting for a 32% increase in the SP?

[777]

What good news are you expecting for a 32% increase in the SP?

You don't need good news, just an irrational market.

[couta1]

You don't need good news, just an irrational market. I wouldn't have the foggiest where the SP is heading tomorrow, it could go up a $1 or down the same amount, good news(Whatever that means with most things known already)doesn't mean it's necessarily going up, this thing is Schizophrenic and is the Game of Thrones. PS-My good sized floating parcel has been dispatched today due to a great adversity to being skunked.

[winner69]

What good news are you expecting for a 32% increase in the SP?

Maybe a bit excited ...but Jayne might be a magician

Forgot a 23% needs a 32% gain to get back to square one

Been a dog of a stock lately eh

[RupertBear]

I wouldn't have the foggiest where the SP is heading tomorrow, it could go up a $1 or down the same amount, good news(Whatever that means with most things known already)doesn't mean it's necessarily going up, this thing is Schizophrenic and is the Game of Thrones. PS-My good sized floating parcel has been dispatched today due to a great adversity to being skunked.

Ya sold :eek2: ya gona buy some more HLG? :p

[couta1]

Ya sold :eek2: ya gona buy some more HLG? :p Just the floaters sold, still holding my core holding bought at $8 albeit reduced in size from a few months back. Always feels nice to have a cash war chest young bear, you never know when some random bear could turn up and spoil the picnic. PS-Actually have OCA lined up once the Elephant has gone bush.

[Muppett]

Maybe a bit excited ...but Jayne might be a magician

Forgot a 23% needs a 32% gain to get back to square one

Been a dog of a stock lately eh

I am going to pray tonight.

[couta1]

I am going to pray tonight. As good a strategy as any with this stock.

[Ggcc]

I wouldn't have the foggiest where the SP is heading tomorrow, it could go up a $1 or down the same amount, good news(Whatever that means with most things known already)doesn't mean it's necessarily going up, this thing is Schizophrenic and is the Game of Thrones. PS-My good sized floating parcel has been dispatched today due to a great adversity to being skunked.
I have seen moments I thought the news was fantastic and days I thought the news was bad and I saw the market react in the opposite way to what I thought. So all in all I am holding on tight to my shares in A2 regardless to how I feel in the short term.

[Raz]

As good a strategy as any with this stock.



Its been high maintenance share..has to delivery a return for that time and energy.

[Baa_Baa]

Its been high maintenance share..has to delivery a return for that time and energy.

Backing out to a weekly (log scale) chart view, set the MA43 (200DMA equivalent) and EMA17 (50DEMA equivalent) takes a lots of noise and stress out of the situation for the long hold parcel. Try also the 10/14EMA's SP crossover for indicator/trigger trades, of a smaller trading parcel. ATM bounced nicely off the long term MA three weeks ago and is testing short term MA's on the weekly chart now with a slight downtrend-line resistance overhead at present. Then stop reading every post on this thread and especially A2M on HC, which will see ones anxiety levels reduce to nothing.

[minimoke]

I see austrlaia closed and NZD$11.13. I'm assuming the shorters are out of the market at the moment - not prepared to take a punt on something that could surge tomorrow.

[Beagle]

Its been high maintenance share..has to delivery a return for that time and energy.

Its been a long time between drinks that's for sure !

[couta1]

I see austrlaia closed and NZD$11.13. I'm assuming the shorters are out of the market at the moment - not prepared to take a punt on something that could surge tomorrow. No the shorts are very much in the market at the moment, 75% of total volume was shorters yesterday They may all be running around with their rear ends on fire tomorrow or creating havoc, toss a coin to decide which it will be.

[Beagle]

Average analyst forecast on 4 traders is $191m after tax. We know their sales are $922m That profit figure is the figure to watch for, (under or over) and then put any tea leaves offered in respect of commentary around prospects for FY19 under a high powered microscope. According to 4 traders forecasts for FY19 at this stage they're looking at sales of $1.25b and net profit after tax of $275m. That puts the stock on a forward PE of 29 which seems pretty fair and reasonable given their growth rate.

[Baa_Baa]

Average analyst forecast on 4 traders is $191m after tax. We know their sales are $922m That profit figure is the figure to watch for, (under or over) and then put any tea leaves offered in respect of commentary around prospects for FY19 under a high powered microscope. According to 4 traders forecasts for FY19 at this stage they're looking at sales of $1.25b and net profit after tax of $275m. That puts the stock on a forward PE of 29 which seems pretty fair and reasonable given their growth rate.

You quote 4traders fairly often, does this mean that you rate them worthy of consideration? I rate your opinions highly.

Do you know who the analysts actually are? Personally I reckon they're bumpkins not worthy of a click of my mouse. I have no idea of their provenance and no interest to find out, let alone quote them. Looks to me like just another investor website luring the uneducated into a subscription fee.

Interested in your reply, whether it's self affirming cognitive bias, or a legit source of worthy info.

[Beagle]

Very kind of you to say Baa Baa. Its just a site that endeavors to make money by providing a business news platform that also collates analyst opinions and forecasts.
Thompson Rueters is another one. Its useful for getting a handle on what the average analyst view is, (no, they don't tell you who has the highest or lowest valuation on any particular stock).

Everyone has a bias on every stock they watch or hold, myself included. Over the years I've learned that confirmation bias is something to really try and guard against, hence the value of robust debate on forums like this as a useful check on others opinions. The value of this 4 traders site is that by looking at the average analyst view you smooth out individual analyst bias and it provides a useful benchmark for what the average view of the analyst community is. It can also be a good site to measure up one's own opinion against to double check one is not too far out on a limb with their own bias :)

If for example ATM report NPAT of say $205m tomorrow morning then you know that on average analysts will be upgrading their valuations (assuming a reasonable outlook guidance from the company, if any). In theory that should lead to the shares going up a bit.

I suspect it'll be a while before we see $14.62 again. That was quite an adrenalin rush that day ! Back in February I had twice as many as I do now. This is another stock that I've reverted to selling half and a free carry+ on because I'm not entirely sure where too from here. I'd like to think its up but I do think Geoffery Babbage leaving was quite a loss for the company. Who knows how Ms Hrdlicker will go. Don't like this succession risk much.

[minimoke]

No coincidence there is some click bait on stuff today: https://www.stuff.co.nz/life-style/food-wine/food-news/106033470/is-a2-milk-worth-the-extra-cost

"When A2 milk arrives at a supermarket near you - and it's coming - should you buy it?
The answer depends on whether you feel that drinking milk causes tummy problems and whether you can afford it.

If money is no object - just get it.

It has all the great nutrition benefits of ordinary milk and there's no downside. If it comes from a farm where the farmer takes extra care around his cows as part of making a niche product, you might even end up with a higher quality milk. It's all good."

[777]

https://thea2milkcompany.com/wp-content/uploads/A2M-Annual-Report-FY18.pdf

[winner69]

‘The Company anticipates further growth in revenue particularly in respect of nutritional products in ANZ and China, and liquid milk in the United States. The focus on growth initiatives in targeted emerging markets and new product development will continue.’

Anticipates growth

IS THAT ALL WE GET.?

[bull....]

in line with forecasts , no sales forecasts to 2019 only higher costs forecast. still think there marketing spend is to low. reversion to the mean is still my pick over time if not today

[whatsup]

Pretty good ann with no surprises to down ramp imo.

[Beagle]

^^^^ Tough crowd to please. I think it was a very solid result and NPAT is higher than average analyst forecasts. http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/ATM/322526/284975.pdf
Happy with that.

[couta1]

Marketing and Overhead costs will be higher in FY19, EBITDA to sales ratio broadly consistent with FY18, hopefully the market doesn't focus on these points aye.

[Ggcc]

^^^^ Tough crowd to please. I think it was a very solid result and NPAT is higher than average analyst forecasts. http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/ATM/322526/284975.pdf
Happy with that.
I agree with what you say. However very vague with future growth...... I guess the management never get too enthusiastic

[winner69]

‘The Company anticipates further growth in revenue particularly in respect of nutritional products in ANZ and China, and liquid milk in the United States. The focus on growth initiatives in targeted emerging markets and new product development will continue.’

Anticipates growth

IS THAT ALL WE GET.?

Suppose that’s under promising and over delivering

[Beagle]

I don't see what the issue is. Marketing and overhead are going up in line with sales so the EBITDA ratio stays about the same and that's a problem because ?????????
That's how companies grow, it doesn't happen by accident.

[bull....]

i think its the right strategy spend lots more on marketing , dont worry about profits short term.

i see some of this years profit was from currency movements so did they actually best estimates? looks like a miss to me

[couta1]

I don't see what the issue is. Marketing and overhead are going up in line with sales so the EBITDA ratio stays about the same and that's a problem because ?????????
That's how companies grow, it doesn't happen by accident. No problem unless your a Schizo market which this one is, not enough flashing lights to medicate the sufferers in this report.Lol.

[Sideshow Bob]

I'll digest this over a flat white later in the day, but on the face of it seems a solid result. Good margins, growth continues - just no mention of the D word.....which they certainly could afford.

I'm comfortable with the increased investment in marketing - however always a difficult one, as never easy to quantify spend and effectiveness and if the marketing department are allowed, then they will use every colouring in pencil at their disposal. Brand is key to A2 and have to become the Coke of the sector.

[Nasi Goreng]

I like the flashing lights, even if they were already known. Doubling of NPAT, revenue growth in China, 163%... Synlait building new dairy plant to keep up with demand, EBIT margin to be consistent.

Some other good comments in the report about competition, awareness of A1 free milk and their unique offering. If the market grows, so will they. Looks good.

[hogie]

No divvy :( I guess we will continue to be on the rollercoaster for at least another half year ...

[Dust]

Thank god theres no divvy. When a high growth company decides one day it doesnt know what to do with its free cash thats when it becomes a POS! Topping up today

[Muppett]

All the numbers are as expected.
Even Net Profit of $195.7m was in the $190-$206 range.
No dividend, weak commentary on 2019.
This was as exciting as it gets:

The first signs of competition from a major international company in the A1 protein free category appeared in
March 2018. There has been no apparent impact on our sales momentum as a consequence of this launch.


Jayne did not dazzle.

So no share price spike today.
SP may even head South.

Hope I am wrong.

[Beagle]

I like the flashing lights, even if they were already known. Doubling of NPAT, revenue growth in China, 163%... Synlait building new dairy plant to keep up with demand, EBIT margin to be consistent.

Some other good comments in the report about competition, awareness of A1 free milk and their unique offering. If the market grows, so will they. Looks good.

Yeap, should be enough in there to keep the schizophrenics happy including this hound.

[Ggcc]

All the numbers are as expected.
Even Net Profit of $195.7m was in the $190-$206 range.
No dividend, weak commentary on 2019.
This was as exciting as it gets:


Jayne did not dazzle.

So no spike today. SP may even head South.
I think it will head down south to about $!0.30-10.50 this week only for the short term. Happy to be proven wrong and will continue to hold either way..

[silu]

When the only thing not met was my own undisclosed expectations.

[Muppett]

I think it will head down south to about $!0.30-10.50 this week only for the short term. Happy to be proven wrong and will continue to hold either way..

How long is short term?

It will be ages before it gets up again.
I'll be on Viagra by then.

[Ggcc]

How long is short term?

It will be ages before it gets up again.
I'll be on Viagra by then.

For me three to four months is what I am thinking. Until we get a better idea of what the half year turnover is going to be and a rough guidance for the full year.

[Sideshow Bob]

For me three to four months is what I am thinking. Until we get a better idea of what the half year turnover is going to be and a rough guidance for the full year.

We are already almost 2 months into the 19FY, so should have some sort of idea - continuous disclosure.....

[Nasi Goreng]

I think its good the company hasn't published its growth expectations.

Why would you signal to your competitors that you plan to grow revenue by 40, 70, 120% in the next 12 months? If you were a competitor and you knew this figure, would it be to your advantage or A2's?

[Muppett]

I think its good the company hasn't published its growth expectations.

Why would you signal to your competitors that you plan to grow revenue by 40, 70, 120% in the next 12 months? If you were a competitor and you knew this figure, would it be to your advantage or A2's?

It would be to your advantage.
The other company would be forced to ratchet up its sales, make hasty and poor strategic decisions.
The All Blacks sometimes win games before the match has even started.

[winner69]

I’m beginning to think the investing (gambling) world would be a much better place if companies only had to report once every few years.

All this regular reporting etc etc etc just confirms we are all traders / gamblers / punters who are driven crazy without a form guide to study.

None of us are real investors ...OK one in a thousand might be

Kiwi fruit (gold) was nice for breakfast ....and plain cheap milk on the porridge

[Sideshow Bob]

It would be to your advantage.
The other company would be forced to ratchet up its sales, make hasty and poor strategic decisions.
The All Blacks sometimes win games before the match has even started.

Can look at it both ways - glass half full, or glass half empty (of A2 milk)

Needless to say, time to ratchet up supply, IF production, China listings etc - not a tap you can just turn on

[sb9]

Pretty solid result. broadly in line in with their earlier trading update.

Nice to see NPAT came ahead of expectations.

Expecting sideways movement in the short term until singles day (11/11) and ASM, unless Synlait results next months show something else.

[Nasi Goreng]

It would be to your advantage.
The other company would be forced to ratchet up its sales, make hasty and poor strategic decisions.
The All Blacks sometimes win games before the match has even started.

Apple are pretty good at this... they provide a forecast for the current quarter and nothing further out (their guidance is pretty much 2 months in advance). For new products such as Apple Watch, they don't even share how many units they sell...

[Muppett]

I’m beginning to think the investing (gambling) world would be a much better place if companies only had to report once every few years.

All this regular reporting etc etc etc just confirms we are all traders / gamblers / punters who are driven crazy without a form guide to study.

None of us are real investors ...OK one in a thousand might be

Kiwi fruit (gold) was nice for breakfast ....and plain cheap milk on the porridge

The more time yo spend on researching, investigating, re-weighting your portfolios etc... the more likely you are a trader, even if your original intention was to hold and not sell. That's proven in the courts.

Set and forget with this stock is long gone.

[Muppett]

Pretty solid result. broadly in line in with their earlier trading update.

Nice to see NPAT came ahead of expectations.

Expecting sideways movement in the short term until singles day (11/11) and ASM, unless Synlait results next months show something else.

I had NPAT in the $190-$206 range. Not sure $195.7m is ahead of expectations.
Maybe the NZ opening SP and Aussie open will tell us.

[Sideshow Bob]

PE at the opening price of $11.13 = 41.62 (based on using after tax profit)

[minimoke]

We are already almost 2 months into the 19FY, so should have some sort of idea - continuous disclosure.....Gives us time to digest 2018 results. Rest a moment and then look forward to first half guidance. Time to roll out the Cheddar Cheese advert.

(I like the $340m war chest. Handy to have on hand to help see off competitors or buy a new opportunity or grow yoru markets. Quite content to sit and wait - and in the meantime strapped in tight for the roller coaster.)

[silu]

Milking it: Is A2 milk worth the extra cost?
https://www.stuff.co.nz/life-style/food-wine/food-news/106033470/is-a2-milk-worth-the-extra-cost

You could say the same about the share price.

[Beagle]

PE at the opening price of $11.13 = 41.62 (based on using after tax profit)

Market is forward looking and we're already well into the FY19 year. Average analyst forecast has ATM on a FY19 PE of 29.

I agree mm...just hold, strap yourself in and let growth do its thing.

[couta1]

The more time yo spend on researching, investigating, re-weighting your portfolios etc... the more likely you are a trader, even if your original intention was to hold and not sell. That's proven in the courts.

Set and forget with this stock is long gone. Funny how 4 traders only give this a one star trader rating, how far wrong could they be.Lol.

[Muppett]

Funny how 4 traders only give this a one star trader rating, how far wrong could they be.Lol.

I don't know much about 4 traders website.
Who do they give a 4-5 star rating to?

[Dust]

Analysts say business as usual, gross and ebitda margins ahead of their consensus by a teeny tiny amount reflecting increased mix of infant formula as % of total sales

[couta1]

I don't know much about 4 traders website.
Who do they give a 4-5 star rating to? The likes of Air NZ gets a 4.5 star rating.

[Muppett]

The likes of Air NZ gets a 4.5 star rating.

That's proof enough it's a crap website.

[Beagle]

That's proof enough it's a crap website.

My limited understanding of that rating is its a trading rating related with liquidity and depth. Helps that AIR is tradeable in half cent increments.

Anyway...back to ATM, market seems happy with the results...is there a dial in conference call or am I too late ?

[sb9]

Anyway...back to ATM, market seems happy with the results...is there a dial in conference call or am I too late ?

I doubt if there's is conf call scheduled, haven't see any announcement to that affect.

[sb9]

Okay, let's do the maths.

Cash on Hand at 30/06/2017 (FY 2017) - $121mln

Cash on Hand at 31/12/2017 (FH 2018) - $240mln

They have effectively doubled their cash reserves (or 119mln) within 6 months. And assuming similar growth rate you think they'll be holding close to $330mln ($240+$90) at the least as at 30/06/2018 (FY 2018).


Not a bad prediction re COH from y'day. My estimate was $330mln and from results released today, actual COH is $340mln.

[Ggcc]

I think it will head down south to about $!0.30-10.50 this week only for the short term. Happy to be proven wrong and will continue to hold either way..
I love being wrong in this case.

[Sideshow Bob]

I love being wrong in this case.

The real price action starts at 12pm when ASX opens.....

[minimoke]

I love being wrong in this case.
You may not be. Gotta wait for the Ozzies to wake up.

Edit: Snap

[minimoke]

The real price action starts at 12pm when ASX opens.....Fingers crossed they are picking up a few cheap ones on the NZX before the gates open.

Edit. ASX took off with a roar at AUD$10.62 but settling into a $10.55 range. Nice to see a bounce on opening after a company update.

[Ggcc]

The real price action starts at 12pm when ASX opens.....
Can I now say I am wrong hehehe

[minimoke]

Can I now say I am wrong hehehe
NZ market up 5.6% to $11.75 at the moment. Cant complain.

[Muppett]

NZ market up 5.6% to $11.75 at the moment. Cant complain.

Not yet.
Wait till the close on Friday.

[sb9]

NZ market up 5.6% to $11.75 at the moment. Cant complain.

The famous "short squeeze" is on show over at ASX.

[minimoke]

Not yet.
Wait till the close on Friday.
Happy to. SML also getting a bit of a tickle along so time to check the fridge.

[silu]

I only have 3 stocks where a +5% day does make for some nice reading in my portfolio. ATM is one of them. Cheers to the liquid white gold!

[Sideshow Bob]

I was thinking before about the lack of dividend.

But I guess it was after this time that they bought Mitsui's share in SML - so that would be about that would have been about $160m - almost half of the $340m warchest.

The greater good - dividend hounds will get some cash soon enough.....

[Jeff]

Where do we see the SP at in a couple of days once the smoke has settled? Do we think that it will hover around that mark for the next few months until the half year results?

[see weed]

Looks like $12 just around the corner. Funny, last couple months they drop 20c every time I bought some. Very funny, now sell some and they go up 20c. Not going to sell any more today and see what happens.:mellow: You got to be careful, this stock could send you to the funny farm:eek2:.

[Jeff]

That's is a similar situation to me seeweed, now at a point where I could sell now with enough of a gain to justify the hair loss, but leaning towards holding for the mid term (and not checking the SP too often)

[minimoke]

That's is a similar situation to me seeweed, now at a point where I could sell now with enough of a gain to justify the hair loss, but leaning towards holding for the mid term (and not checking the SP too often)
We all say "must not check share price so often". Trouble is ATM comes with automatic sirens call.

[see weed]

That's is a similar situation to me seeweed, now at a point where I could sell now with enough of a gain to justify the hair loss, but leaning towards holding for the mid term (and not checking the SP too often)
Not to worry, the good results will be all over the news tonight and tomorrows papers, and you never know, we might squeeze another $1 or $2 before Friday;).

[Blendy]

Not to worry, the good results will be all over the news tonight and tomorrows papers, and you never know, we might squeeze another $1 or $2 before Friday;).

Bets are on: See weed thinks $13 or $14 by Friday!

[winner69]

Bets are on: See weed thinks $13 or $14 by Friday!

14 bucks for sure

[see weed]

Bets are on: See weed thinks $13 or $14 by Friday!
I am not betting $13 or $14, but just saying, you never know your luck in a big city:). I am happy with $12 at this stage. But if it wants to go to $14 then lets all crack a bottle. I'll be cracking one tonight what ever the close:t_up:.

[Raz]

I am not betting $13 or $14, but just saying, you never know your luck in a big city:). I am happy with $12 at this stage. But if it wants to go to $14 then lets all crack a bottle. I'll be cracking one tonight what ever the close:t_up:.

Some people are desperate for easy money around here :-)

[see weed]

Some people are desperate for easy money around here :-)
Nothing wrong with easy money, have had plenty of uneasy money in my time:).

[Dust]

Mods ban me if this is not A$20 by mid 2019. Dont ask me how I know.

[Beagle]

Looks like $12 just around the corner. Funny, last couple months they drop 20c every time I bought some. Very funny, now sell some and they go up 20c. Not going to sell any more today and see what happens.:mellow: You got to be careful, this stock could send you to the funny farm:eek2:.


Happy to. SML also getting a bit of a tickle along so time to check the fridge.

Which is why I think its important to celebrate a win when you get one...probably get taken off you before long lol

Anyway...I let a few go at $11.90...I think at least some of today's price action is desperate short covering. NPAT was 2% higher than average analyst forecast, not 5-6% as suggested by the SP. Probably get egg on face like I have with HLG but I tell myself nobody ever went broke taking a profit and it certainly pays for a few of my favorite beverages :t_up:

[bull....]

topped out right around the $12 lol be interesting if stays in the range

[minimoke]

Which is why I think its important to celebrate a win when you get one...probably get taken off you before long lolI'm trying to avoid drinking during the week - so hopefully the gains last to Friday.

[Baa_Baa]

topped out right around the $12 lol be interesting if stays in the range

Bet you had a fun day 😀 Intraday double top = first and second chance to scalp the decent swing. Behaving nicely on TA isn't it. Might have another shot at breaking out tomorrow, a bounty for day traders albeit a pricey head share gives little margin for missing a move.

[Joshuatree]

Good day for the A stocks , my ATM up 6.1%, 68c, fab
My APX up 12% ,$1.38, thunderbirds are go.

[bull....]

Bet you had a fun day  Intraday double top = first and second chance to scalp the decent swing. Behaving nicely on TA isn't it. Might have another shot at breaking out tomorrow, a bounty for day traders albeit a pricey head share gives little margin for missing a move.

my read bottomed around that 10.40 same area as in late may. lets see what happens now resistance was around 11.80 - 12 currently consolidating in 11.70 - 12 on the 5 and 15 , see which way it goes. good reward to risk trading around the edges of the range otherwise its to much chop and risk anything in the middle. ranges make for good reward / risk , longs and shorts intraday.

[MikeE]

https://www.nbr.co.nz/story/a2-milk-pushes-back-us-break-even-grow-faster

"A2 Milk has pushed out its break-even point in the United States by a year because distribution growth has been much faster than expected.

Managing director Jayne Hrdlicka says that means the company is seizing the opportunity to build a larger business which means spending more in the short-term.
“The distribution growth is now much faster than we had expected and the opportunity is there right now,” Ms Hrdlicka says.
“What happens when you accelerate distribution growth is you’re investing a lot in building up those points of distribution which then means that it takes a bit longer to get the rate of sales up across all distribution points to deliver the profit momentum that’s inherent in a more established position,” she says."

[bull....]

https://www.nbr.co.nz/story/a2-milk-pushes-back-us-break-even-grow-faster

"A2 Milk has pushed out its break-even point in the United States by a year because distribution growth has been much faster than expected.

Managing director Jayne Hrdlicka says that means the company is seizing the opportunity to build a larger business which means spending more in the short-term.
“The distribution growth is now much faster than we had expected and the opportunity is there right now,” Ms Hrdlicka says.
“What happens when you accelerate distribution growth is you’re investing a lot in building up those points of distribution which then means that it takes a bit longer to get the rate of sales up across all distribution points to deliver the profit momentum that’s inherent in a more established position,” she says."

that be good , dont worry about short term profit and invest for long term growth

[biker]

https://www.nbr.co.nz/story/a2-milk-pushes-back-us-break-even-grow-faster

"A2 Milk has pushed out its break-even point in the United States by a year because distribution growth has been much faster than expected.

Managing director Jayne Hrdlicka says that means the company is seizing the opportunity to build a larger business which means spending more in the short-term.
“The distribution growth is now much faster than we had expected and the opportunity is there right now,” Ms Hrdlicka says.
“What happens when you accelerate distribution growth is you’re investing a lot in building up those points of distribution which then means that it takes a bit longer to get the rate of sales up across all distribution points to deliver the profit momentum that’s inherent in a more established position,” she says."

Also from the NBR

"A2 Milk’s results suggest it has lost some momentum in the key China market for infant formula......."

[biker]

https://www.nbr.co.nz/story/a2-milk-pushes-back-us-break-even-grow-faster

"A2 Milk has pushed out its break-even point in the United States by a year because distribution growth has been much faster than expected.

Managing director Jayne Hrdlicka says that means the company is seizing the opportunity to build a larger business which means spending more in the short-term.
“The distribution growth is now much faster than we had expected and the opportunity is there right now,” Ms Hrdlicka says.
“What happens when you accelerate distribution growth is you’re investing a lot in building up those points of distribution which then means that it takes a bit longer to get the rate of sales up across all distribution points to deliver the profit momentum that’s inherent in a more established position,” she says."

Could this be negative news skilfully, beautifully and deceptively spun?

[winner69]

Could this be negative news skilfully, beautifully and deceptively spun?

Could be Jayne at her dazzling best

[Ggcc]

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/ATM/322651/285117.pdf

They are increasing their stake

[Muppett]

Could be Jayne at her dazzling best

It could be.

[Muppett]

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/ATM/322651/285117.pdf

They are increasing their stake

Have increased their stake.
Hopefully they don't sell off too soon, as they inevitably will.

[minimoke]

We all say "must not check share price so often". Trouble is ATM comes with automatic sirens call.Damn. up $0.05 on opening.

[longy]

News on Walmart is now selling A2 milk over in States.

https://www.thedailytimes.com/business/the-a-milk-company-launches-into-walmart/article_d59a7e83-fec5-5fb1-9630-f52cfc210c4a.html

[MauroNZ]

Which is why I think its important to celebrate a win when you get one...probably get taken off you before long lol

Anyway...I let a few go at $11.90...I think at least some of today's price action is desperate short covering. NPAT was 2% higher than average analyst forecast, not 5-6% as suggested by the SP. Probably get egg on face like I have with HLG but I tell myself nobody ever went broke taking a profit and it certainly pays for a few of my favorite beverages :t_up:

Beagle, something that keep me thinking on this share is the high P/E, given the earnings reported now and before do you think is still justified that P/E or is not that important for ATM?.

[minimoke]

News on Walmart is now selling A2 milk over in States.

https://www.thedailytimes.com/business/the-a-milk-company-launches-into-walmart/article_d59a7e83-fec5-5fb1-9630-f52cfc210c4a.htmlI'm not sure distribution channels is the constraint. It would be supply of product.

[Beagle]

Beagle, something that keep me thinking on this share is the high P/E, given the earnings reported now and before do you think is still justified that P/E or is not that important for ATM?.

Hi MauroNZ. The market is always a forward looking beast. Average analyst forecast shows a forward PE of about 30 at the current price which I think is pretty reasonable for such a high growth company. You need to look at the EBITDA loss of (nearly $30m from memory) on U.S. operations to understand that the PE could be lower if they were not investing heavily for future growth.

Honestly I think this is a bit of a lottery where to from here in the very short term. Once we have more data in terms of first half sales for FY19 we'll be in a far better position to understand how their growth is currently tracking. Long term they are probably a good hold but could range trade in the ~ 10.50 - $12 range for a while.

[limmy]

Does the supply of fresh milk to the US come from AUS and/or NZ ?

I'm not sure distribution channels is the constraint. It would be supply of product.

[tipsy]

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/ATM/322651/285117.pdf

They are increasing their stake

As others have been.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bullish-a2-milk-company-limited-003452713.html

[Muppett]

Didn't take long before the Aussie robots kicked in.

[see weed]

Looks like $12 just around the corner. Funny, last couple months they drop 20c every time I bought some. Very funny, now sell some and they go up 20c. Not going to sell any more today and see what happens.:mellow: You got to be careful, this stock could send you to the funny farm:eek2:.
Just tried an experiment at 11.55am and bought 2000 at 11.70, and it worked, sp dropped 30sec later:mellow:. Has anyone got a spare straight jacket I can wear between 11.45 and 12.05 every day:scared:.

[Timesurfer]

Just tried an experiment at 11.55am and bought 2000 at 11.70, and it worked, sp dropped 30sec later:mellow:. Has anyone got a spare straight jacket I can wear between 11.45 and 12.05 every day:scared:.

Can you let me know when you are going to sell some next time? ;)

[Ggcc]

Xero is catching up to the total value of this company. They just passed $50 Australian dollars per share valuing them just over $7 billion, while A2 is $7.8 billion...... all quoted in aussie dollars. Crazy times we live in

[see weed]

Can you let me know when you are going to sell some next time? ;)
If I told you every time I bought and sold, we would both need a straight jacket:). I do have a car for sale if that's any help..2017 Toyota Corolla GLX, going to trade it in for an SUV.

[Leftfield]

Does the supply of fresh milk to the US come from AUS and/or NZ ?

US and Uk each have unique non NZ supply arrangements.

[Ggcc]

Not yet.
Wait till the close on Friday.
Can I say I am wrong now!!! It certainly looks like $12 on the cards tomorrow if they go north. I am happy with same or slightly lower, but I guess that won’t happen.

[longy]

Can I say I am wrong now!!! It certainly looks like $12 on the cards tomorrow if they go north. I am happy with same or slightly lower, but I guess that won’t happen.

You will get your 'wrong' eventually. It is certain that what SP would do either up or down. :)

It is a long term hold for me and its future of A2 looking bright still.

BTW that has so much talk on radio talk show and on the net about prices of milk and different tastes of milk... I love this country! It seems likes a lot of interest and debate over milk.

[minimoke]

BTW that has so much talk on radio talk show and on the net about prices of milk and different tastes of milk... I love this country! It seems likes a lot of interest and debate over milk.Dont be fooled into thinking that is coincidental. NZ media incapable of original thought. Someone will be drip feeding it all to the media.

[longy]

Dont be fooled into thinking that is coincidental. NZ media incapable of original thought. Someone will be drip feeding it all to the media.

Well aware of that thanks... I always have my other eye open when any comes from Media... BTW my last sentence re interest and talk about milk was with "sarcasm"

[minimoke]

BTW my last sentence re interest and talk about milk was with "sarcasm"I'm not bright enough to get sarcasm

[minimoke]

15 minutes of bargains to go. Australia about to wake up and hopefully get us over $12 today. (they are in a bit of a political frother lather at the moment so should get into SML as well)

Edit. Cant say we weren't told. AUD$11.03 before we knew it

[Beagle]

15 minutes of bargains to go. Australia about to wake up and hopefully get us over $12 today. (they are in a bit of a political frother lather at the moment so should get into SML as well)

Edit. Cant say we weren't told. AUD$11.03 before we knew it

$12 when I looked just a couple of minutes ago. Starting to enjoy this free ride now. Makes a nice change from the usual "whores drawers" SP performance.
Looking forward to SML reporting next month :)

[JoeGrogan]

Off topic but is anyone else having issues with anz securities at the mo?

[couta1]

Off topic but is anyone else having issues with anz securities at the mo? Systems down currently.

[minimoke]

Systems down currently.
Phew, thought it was just me. (ANZ Securities down for me)
Gremlins have got in. Back on line and SP at $11.80. That cant be right!

[JoeGrogan]

Systems down currently.

Dang, cheers for the reply. Been having frequent issues with them recently, gonna have to move to something else me thinks.

Wonder what it means for the orders i have in place at the moment.

[minimoke]

Wonder what it means for the orders i have in place at the moment.I think it is the website thats broken - not the trading

[bull....]

12 holds again

[bull....]

nice triple top in aus too see if we can smash it below 10.60

[bull....]

bottomed out perfectly at 10.58

[minimoke]

bottomed out perfectly at 10.58
You are giving me conniptions quoting AUD on the NZX threads.

[bull....]

You are giving me conniptions quoting AUD on the NZX threads.

sorry bro , someone wanted an example and aus is the only way to trade up and down. just ignore my ramblings sometimes

[bull....]

consolidating at the 50% retracement of the days range currently after that move peaked at the 61%

[gbogo]

Back in California after 6 months and now they stock it at WholeFoods in Palo Alto..

[Sideshow Bob]

9875

I'm following A2 USA on their facebook page, and the numbers of likes has increased substantially.

Reviews interesting as well.

[silu]

9875

I'm following A2 USA on their facebook page, and the numbers of likes has increased substantially.

Reviews interesting as well.

Doesn't matter what any scientific reports says. It's the customer's opinion that counts. Even if they may go against every fact presented. It's a sad state of affairs in general but for A2 Milk and other 21st Century snake oils it's great.

discl. happy holder

[winner69]

9875

I'm following A2 USA on their facebook page, and the numbers of likes has increased substantially.

Reviews interesting as well.

Does Kim Kardashian drink A2 milk?

Assuming you follow Kim on Facebook and Instagram ..don’t you Bob

[minimoke]

Does Kim Kardashian drink A2 milk?

Assuming you follow Kim on Facebook and Instagram ..don’t you BobGwyneth Paltrow is said to bath in it. Keeps her lady bits healthy.

[couta1]

Gwyneth Paltrow is said to bath in it. Keeps her lady bits healthy. Not acid enough, you need white vinegar for those bits.

[King1212]

Gwyneth Paltrow is said to bath in it. Keeps her lady bits healthy.

Oh...euh.....I like her with the bits on it:D

[Sideshow Bob]

Does Kim Kardashian drink A2 milk?

Assuming you follow Kim on Facebook and Instagram ..don’t you Bob

You've learnt my secret Winner...…

[allfromacell]

12 holds again

But will it hold again...

"Trading on a PEG of 0.9x in FY19 and FY20, we maintain our Add recommendation and have increased our share price target."

https://www.morgans.com.au/Blog/2018/August/The-A2-Milk-Company-Strong-performance-across-all-metrics

[winner69]

But will it hold again...

"Trading on a PEG of 0.9x in FY19 and FY20, we maintain our Add recommendation and have increased our share price target."

https://www.morgans.com.au/Blog/2018/August/The-A2-Milk-Company-Strong-performance-across-all-metrics

WOW ....nice one

target was pretty high anyway ...so increasing it is good

Though PEG ratios are a dangerous thing to go on.

[BlackPeter]

...

Though PEG ratios are a dangerous thing to on.

Well ... less dangerous if the growth has a long history and looks sustainable ;);

[bull....]

But will it hold again...

"Trading on a PEG of 0.9x in FY19 and FY20, we maintain our Add recommendation and have increased our share price target."

https://www.morgans.com.au/Blog/2018/August/The-A2-Milk-Company-Strong-performance-across-all-metrics

guess we will know in a day or 2 , the risk trade was long at 12 with a stop underneath , see if it holds

[Muppett]

Have increased their stake.
Hopefully they don't sell off too soon, as they inevitably will.

Didn't take long for GS to sell off.
Hopefully SP wont be impacted too much.

[Dust]

Are we forgetting that GS is a brokering business? Them reducing their stake = strong bids buying off them. It's when a broker becomes a substantial holder that's when nobody's buying.

[Muppett]

Are we forgetting that GS is a brokering business? Them reducing their stake = strong bids buying off them. It's when a broker becomes a substantial holder that's when nobody's buying.

We are.
I didn't really appreciate that, so thanks for the advice.

[MauroNZ]

Hi MauroNZ. The market is always a forward looking beast. Average analyst forecast shows a forward PE of about 30 at the current price which I think is pretty reasonable for such a high growth company. You need to look at the EBITDA loss of (nearly $30m from memory) on U.S. operations to understand that the PE could be lower if they were not investing heavily for future growth.

Honestly I think this is a bit of a lottery where to from here in the very short term. Once we have more data in terms of first half sales for FY19 we'll be in a far better position to understand how their growth is currently tracking. Long term they are probably a good hold but could range trade in the ~ 10.50 - $12 range for a while.

Thanks a lot mate, that helps to learn and understand.

[Beagle]

Thanks a lot mate, that helps to learn and understand.

You're most welcome. I see on 4traders there's been some major broker revisions to forecast and now rated outperform with an average price target of $12.91. https://www.marketscreener.com/A2-MILK-COMPANY-LTD-11384022/consensus/

[MauroNZ]

But will it hold again...

"Trading on a PEG of 0.9x in FY19 and FY20, we maintain our Add recommendation and have increased our share price target."

https://www.morgans.com.au/Blog/2018/August/The-A2-Milk-Company-Strong-performance-across-all-metrics

Thanks for that link as I wasn't aware of it.

[couta1]

As an aside, NZX market in enquiry state due to problem with X-Stream.

[bull....]

As an aside, NZX market in enquiry state due to problem with X-Stream.

setting up a working group and are looking into it

[Beagle]

As an aside, NZX market in enquiry state due to problem with X-Stream.

Save everything to the cloud they tell us. Its safe there and you can access it at any time. Little birdie tells me vast numbers of doctors and healthcare providers systems were inoperable yesterday and caused chaos across medical practices throughout the country. Blame the Russian hackers I suppose....

[bucko]

https://news.sky.com/story/china-may-scrap-controversial-two-child-limit-11483634

Some more beautiful news :t_up:

[BlackPeter]

https://news.sky.com/story/china-may-scrap-controversial-two-child-limit-11483634

Some more beautiful news :t_up:

Not really news and not necessarily a guarantee for an increasing number of children. China's problem is that more than one generation grew now up as single child without siblings - being part of a large family is not anymore the cultural standard. As well - the number of women in child bearing age in China is rapidly declining.

Maybe ATM should export to Africa - plenty of young people in need of milk (any, as long as it is clean) over there;)

[couta1]

Not really news and not necessarily a guarantee for an increasing number of children. China's problem is that more than one generation grew now up as single child without siblings - being part of a large family is not anymore the cultural standard. As well - the number of women in child bearing age in China is rapidly declining.

Maybe ATM should export to Africa - plenty of young people in need of milk (any, as long as it is clean) over there;) There's no money in Africa, even the Jewel in it's crown(South Africa) is quickly heading toward becoming another Zimbabwe courtesy of the ruling ANC.

[minimoke]

There's no money in Africa, .India might be worth a shot though

[Ggcc]

Nice to see the share price continue upward on the ASX. Tomorrow looks like another bright start to the day. Of course I could be singing a different tune tomorrow night. I am still happy and holding

[Muppett]

There's no money in Africa, even the Jewel in it's crown(South Africa) is quickly heading toward becoming another Zimbabwe courtesy of the ruling ANC.

Why then is TM in Africa as I post this, in fact:
"Theresa May has announced plans to boost Britain's investment in Africa after Brexit, during her first trip to the continent as prime minister" (BBC 28/8/2018)

[minimoke]

Why then is TM in Africa as I post this, in fact:
"Theresa May has announced plans to boost Britain's investment in Africa after Brexit, during her first trip to the continent as prime minister" (BBC 28/8/2018)
Britain is going to have money to invest after Brexit? Maybe she is looking at her future.

[couta1]

Why then is TM in Africa as I post this, in fact:
"Theresa May has announced plans to boost Britain's investment in Africa after Brexit, during her first trip to the continent as prime minister" (BBC 28/8/2018) She may have plans to put a bit in meanwhile other countries are pulling funds out especially in South Africa, so more is coming out than going in.

[Muppett]

Britain is going to have money to invest after Brexit? Maybe she is looking at her future.

Does Britain still suffer from mad cow disease?
If so, A2 milk could be a solution.

[Dorkus]

Hi guys,

I've been following this thread (along with the others that are relevant to my portfolio) for a long time now but I don't post because I feel like an idiot, so please be nice. I'm interested in people's opinions on where ATM is headed in the short term, although I guess the definition of "short term" depends on your trading horizon but I need to pick an exit in the next little while. I am an investor with a modest holding of ATM, which because of its recent success makes up nearly half my portfolio. I got in early (53c) and got a few more at $2.10 so have done really nicely and would love to hold on tight and continue to ride it north, however I am building a house and want to knock as much off the mortgage as I can (I know in the long run I will make more out of ATM than I will pay in interest but really need to keep the mortgage small in order to service it). So long story short - I will be selling down my entire portfolio over the next six months, herein lies the question. Am I going to be better off holding on as long as I can and hope that on the day/week/month I need the money the price is better than it is today, or do I pick a good number (and I don't know what a good number looks like at the moment) and jump ship when that happens?

I understand the basics of how fundamental and technical analysis works and seem to be doing okay despite the fact I am not an expert in either and don't use either to their potential.

What are your thoughts?

Cheers,
Adam

[bull....]

seems to be tracking nicely from the breakout , see balamy result is out now for reading

[RGR367]

Hi guys,

Am I going to be better off holding on as long as I can and hope that on the day/week/month I need the money the price is better than it is today, or do I pick a good number (and I don't know what a good number looks like at the moment) and jump ship when that happens?

I understand the basics of how fundamental and technical analysis works and seem to be doing okay despite the fact I am not an expert in either and don't use either to their potential.

What are your thoughts?

Cheers,
Adam

Sell it at the price you wanted no matter how outrageous it is, but that price is yours to decide :p

[bull....]

mtge free house and then shares was always my thinking , now i borrow against the house to buy shares lol

[gbogo]

Hi guys,

I've been following this thread (along with the others that are relevant to my portfolio) for a long time now but I don't post because I feel like an idiot, so please be nice. I'm interested in people's opinions on where ATM is headed in the short term, although I guess the definition of "short term" depends on your trading horizon but I need to pick an exit in the next little while. I am an investor with a modest holding of ATM, which because of its recent success makes up nearly half my portfolio. I got in early (53c) and got a few more at $2.10 so have done really nicely and would love to hold on tight and continue to ride it north, however I am building a house and want to knock as much off the mortgage as I can (I know in the long run I will make more out of ATM than I will pay in interest but really need to keep the mortgage small in order to service it). So long story short - I will be selling down my entire portfolio over the next six months, herein lies the question. Am I going to be better off holding on as long as I can and hope that on the day/week/month I need the money the price is better than it is today, or do I pick a good number (and I don't know what a good number looks like at the moment) and jump ship when that happens?

I understand the basics of how fundamental and technical analysis works and seem to be doing okay despite the fact I am not an expert in either and don't use either to their potential.

What are your thoughts?

Cheers,
Adam

Congrats on an excellent hold. My high-level approach would be to sell sooner, rather than later as you have a specific need for the money. It's been on a good run since the profit announcement and may continue as people re-rate the stock. There is also likely to be more passive fund buying as ATM enters a FTSE mid-cap index over the next month. At a more detail level, my TA says it should meet resistance around $14.00. Ideally, you run a Trailing Stop Loss so that you benefit from continued moves up (if any) but protect the downside. The challenge is setting the stop level so that you don't get stopped out on one of the wild intra-day swings we regularly see. It is always easier to sell in a rising market than a downdraft, so leave a few cents for the next guy. Another approach could be to aim to sell say 20% each month for next 5 months, with a stop-loss around each tranche. That way you will likely get a good average, no matter which way the market goes.

[couta1]

mtge free house and then shares was always my thinking , now i borrow against the house to buy shares lol Same but I now see the wisdom of using the equity in your house in the market, especially in a low interest rate environment.

[dameofdiv]

mtge free house and then shares was always my thinking , now i borrow against the house to buy shares lol

Hi Bull,

1st ever post, I've been reading for awhile now.

Is it wise to borrow against house to buy shares? I'm new to shares too.

Appreciate your thoughts.

[Timesurfer]

mtge free house and then shares was always my thinking , now i borrow against the house to buy shares lol

Same boat. I only started this year because the ASB started charging me for make extra mortgage payments so I though I'd stick my spare cash on the stock market. Next thing I was emptying the revolving credit account. So far this year I am up about 2 months pay (which sounds impressive except I don't get much pay!). So what began as cursing the bank turned into a why didn't they do that 2 years earlier!

Adam - I would work out how much you want and work backwards to the share price that will give you that exit strategy.

[bull....]

Hi Bull,

1st ever post, I've been reading for awhile now.

Is it wise to borrow against house to buy shares? I'm new to shares too.

Appreciate your thoughts.

im no investment advisor , but my thinking for me was i had all this equity in the house which wasnt earning anything so as long as a wasnt silly in how much i borrowed at 5% (cheaper than a margin loan) and i invested in good div shares they would pay off my loan over time and i might make some growth as well. i started doing this in 2008 by the way i wouldnt do it now as the market has run a long way since then. i might do it again after the next crash though.

[Dorkus]

by the way i wouldnt do it now as the market has run a long way since then. i might do it again after the next crash though.

I agree entirely... I have built my portfolio over the last 10yrs and am not prepared to risk it with where I see global markets heading in the medium term. There will still be money to be made when this bull cycle turns bear but you will have to be a lot more careful than over the last few years, especially if you have bet the house on it. My 2C.

[dameofdiv]

i started doing this in 2008 by the way i wouldnt do it now as the market has run a long way since then. i might do it again after the next crash though.

Very wise and agree. I guess I will be fearful now and be greedy afterwards.

[Timesurfer]

There will still be money to be made when this bull cycle turns bear but you will have to be a lot more careful than over the last few years, especially if you have bet the house on it. My 2C.

I wouldn't bet the house - but the spare room ... ;)

[RTM]

Hi guys,

I've been following this thread (along with the others that are relevant to my portfolio) for a long time now but I don't post because I feel like an idiot, so please be nice. I'm interested in people's opinions on where ATM is headed in the short term, although I guess the definition of "short term" depends on your trading horizon but I need to pick an exit in the next little while. I am an investor with a modest holding of ATM, which because of its recent success makes up nearly half my portfolio. I got in early (53c) and got a few more at $2.10 so have done really nicely and would love to hold on tight and continue to ride it north, however I am building a house and want to knock as much off the mortgage as I can (I know in the long run I will make more out of ATM than I will pay in interest but really need to keep the mortgage small in order to service it). So long story short - I will be selling down my entire portfolio over the next six months, herein lies the question. Am I going to be better off holding on as long as I can and hope that on the day/week/month I need the money the price is better than it is today, or do I pick a good number (and I don't know what a good number looks like at the moment) and jump ship when that happens?

I understand the basics of how fundamental and technical analysis works and seem to be doing okay despite the fact I am not an expert in either and don't use either to their potential.

What are your thoughts?

Cheers,
Adam

Who knows ? The world is a very uncertain place. Anything from China getting upset with Winston to a biological issue with our dairy herd could affect them.

If it was me....I would put in a sell price...say 12.99 ...and sit back and see what happens. If they didn't sell in say 3/4 weeks...I would ease it back a bit. Getting mortgage free / or under control is important, especially if interest rates start to go up. If they sold I would be very happy with myself even if they continue to increase a bit. You have done really well with them. Congratulations/
Once your mortgage is where you want it....you can always make another decision then with respect to investing in the market.

Well done.
Good luck.
RTM

[Beagle]

My advice to my clients is you should aim to be mortgage free no later than 55. Getting too long in the tooth to take risks with one's home after that and that includes using one's home equity to borrow on other rental properties. With only 10-15 years to go till retirement one is best to avoid leverage altogether after 55 in my opinion. Obviously people don't pay off mortgages overnight so its best to have a goal of being debt free by 55 and work towards it.

Debt is a good tool to build wealth with in your 20's, 30's and 40's in my opinion but like all things, in moderation. (my 2 cents)
Oh. Borrowing to buy a fancy boat is not smart debt...take a word from the wise who has been there and done that in their 30's.

[couta1]

Very wise and agree. I guess I will be fearful now and be greedy afterwards. Depends on how much your borrowings are as a percentage of your total portfolio, mine are about 15 %. Borrowing at 5% or under is fine in the current market, by the time you claim the interest as an expense your still going to do well by placing the money in solid high divvy yielding companies.

[dameofdiv]

Depends on how much your borrowings are as a percentage of your total portfolio, mine are about 15 %. Borrowing at 5% or under is fine in the current market, by the time you claim the interest as an expense your still going to do well by placing the money in solid high divvy yielding companies.

Currently none of my portfolio is from borrowing. Taken note of your percentage, interesting. Yes at the end of the day, if the returns can cover the cost of borrowing, I guess its still making money. High divvy stocks recently at their highs though, am I right?

[kiora]

im no investment advisor , but my thinking for me was i had all this equity in the house which wasnt earning anything so as long as a wasnt silly in how much i borrowed at 5% (cheaper than a margin loan) and i invested in good div shares they would pay off my loan over time and i might make some growth as well. i started doing this in 2008 by the way i wouldnt do it now as the market has run a long way since then. i might do it again after the next crash though.

Like Bull I wouldn't be worried about borrowing against the house as long as the cash flow of all the investments can be easily managed.My view is an investor learns most about investing by just doing it & I wouldn't be worried about the next crash.By investing in the here & now,you can learn the smarts to be better positioned with 'knowledge' for the next bull market.Is Buffet worried about the next crash?NO.Why?He invests in good companies and doesn't get concerned about the daily noise of share price movements.

[gbogo]

Adam is asking about selling ATM though.. paying down a mortgage or investing is not the question.. he's already made that choice and now he has to move the invested money back to the mortgage. so anyone else got advice on how to sell ATM? picking a number you like doesn't seem that helpful - I could pick $150.. i love that number - but there's very little chance ATM gets there in the next 6 months, I think!

[sb9]

On the back strong reporting from Bellamy's across the ditch , I'm picking ATM could surge past $13 mark today if shorts are in a hurry to cover.

[minimoke]

Hi guys,

I've been following this thread (along with the others that are relevant to my portfolio) for a long time now but I don't post because I feel like an idiot, so please be nice. Dont worry about that. I am content taking that role - frees everyone else up to post and learn what ever they like


I'm interested in people's opinions on where ATM is headed in the short term, although I guess the definition of "short term" depends on your trading horizon but I need to pick an exit in the next little while. Following ATM is like being on a roller coaster. If you are a trader then money to be made short term. I'm not - I'm taking a long term view. That is five years. Happy with the ride . But I would be very nervous if I know I had to exit by a certain date. I'd sooner exit on my own terms.


I am an investor with a modest holding of ATM, which because of its recent success makes up nearly half my portfolio. I got in early (53c) and got a few more at $2.10 so have done really nicely and would love to hold on tight and continue to ride it north, however I am building a house and want to knock as much off the mortgage as I can (I know in the long run I will make more out of ATM than I will pay in interest but really need to keep the mortgage small in order to service it).
I'd be inclined to keep riding the highs on the way up. Come up with a number off this high and that's when you sell. Be content with your gain but don't get greedy.

So long story short - I will be selling down my entire portfolio over the next six months, herein lies the question. Am I going to be better off holding on as long as I can and hope that on the day/week/month I need the money the price is better than it is today, or do I pick a good number (and I don't know what a good number looks like at the moment) and jump ship when that happens?

I understand the basics of how fundamental and technical analysis works and seem to be doing okay despite the fact I am not an expert in either and don't use either to their potential.

What are your thoughts?

Cheers,
Adam Long term I see ATM doing better than 5% per annum (or the prevailing mortgage interest rate. Especially when dividend kicks in. So the question is how best to utilise your capital

[RGR367]

Adam is asking about selling ATM though.. paying down a mortgage or investing is not the question.. he's already made that choice and now he has to move the invested money back to the mortgage. so anyone else got advice on how to sell ATM? picking a number you like doesn't seem that helpful - I could pick $150.. i love that number - but there's very little chance ATM gets there in the next 6 months, I think!

If your ATM price is $150 within 6 months then you're not selling it but daydreaming about it and the Market will not act in your play :p

[Dust]

Alternative to reverse mortgage borrowing would just be getting a broker that offers margin lending or consider CFD derivatives. You can leverage up as much as 8 times with the cost of borrowing smaller than the mortgage rates probably..

[couta1]

If I was you Adam in your situation I would be selling a third of your holding now, wait a week and sell another third, if the price starts dropping then sell the rest.

[bull....]

Adam is asking about selling ATM though.. paying down a mortgage or investing is not the question.. he's already made that choice and now he has to move the invested money back to the mortgage. so anyone else got advice on how to sell ATM? picking a number you like doesn't seem that helpful - I could pick $150.. i love that number - but there's very little chance ATM gets there in the next 6 months, I think!

adam has to decide himself when to sell and live with it for the better or the worse. dont think anyone even including financial advisors could pinpoint the exact time to sell

[Jay]

Yes has to decide for himself.
How about picking a number based somewhere around a recent low - sell if it drops to that price before the funds are needed, if not sell when required.

[Ggcc]

If I was you Adam in your situation I would be selling a third of your holding now, wait a week and sell another third, if the price starts dropping then sell the rest.
I would follow in similar steps. Whether it goes up or down you need to be content with your profits.

Many times you hear “had I just waited”, or “damn I should have acted sooner”. I can tell you I never get it right when it comes to selling. It always does the opposite to what I want haha

[minimoke]

I would follow in similar steps. Whether it goes up or down you need to be content with your profits.

Many times you hear “had I just waited”, or “damn I should have acted sooner”. I can tell you I never get it right when it comes to selling. It always does the opposite to what I want hahaExactly. I have yet to meet a person who can accurately pick a top or a bottom. I don't thing such a person exists.

[RTM]

If I was you Adam in your situation I would be selling a third of your holding now, wait a week and sell another third, if the price starts dropping then sell the rest.

That’s a great approach. I tend to be all or nothing, but I like this idea.

[hardt]

COO and CFO added to their holdings

Asia CEO and ex CEO reduced holdings quite a bit

Usually the market has a hissy fit when Geoff sells 9 odd mill nzd of A2.

[winner69]

The world’s so happy at the moment we could see $13.50 at least today

One thing when the world’s so happy fundamentals means didly squat ...that’s a bonus

[Dorkus]

Thanks for all the opinions, I'm glad I could generate some discussion. From here I will be looking to take some off the table this week and see where it goes next week (fingers crossed for $14). I got out of THL yesterday and will also be trying to get a good off-ramp for FPH and SUM in the next couple of months. That will leave me with two penny dreadfuls in the bottom drawer because it is not worth selling them at a loss.

[minimoke]

Thanks for all the opinions, I'm glad I could generate some discussion. From here I will be looking to take some off the table this week and see where it goes next week (fingers crossed for $14). .
No need to cross your fingers. ATM will get to $14. They only question is when. Dont sweat it. When it hits $14 we'll be after $20.

[silu]

No need to cross your fingers. ATM will get to $14. They only question is when. Dont sweat it. When it hits $14 we'll be after $20.

China scrapping its cap on children and strong market penetration in the US and everything is possible for ATM. But then it could go all sour as well. Sorry for the pun.

[iceman]

Thanks for all the opinions, I'm glad I could generate some discussion. From here I will be looking to take some off the table this week and see where it goes next week (fingers crossed for $14). I got out of THL yesterday and will also be trying to get a good off-ramp for FPH and SUM in the next couple of months. That will leave me with two penny dreadfuls in the bottom drawer because it is not worth selling them at a loss.

Have you considered pulling the losers from the bottom drawer and getting rid of them and keeping a little of your winners instead ? That would certainly be my preference !

[BlackPeter]

Have you considered pulling the losers from the bottom drawer and getting rid of them and keeping a little of your winners instead ? That would certainly be my preference !

Sage advice ...

[kiora]

Thanks for all the opinions, I'm glad I could generate some discussion. From here I will be looking to take some off the table this week and see where it goes next week (fingers crossed for $14). I got out of THL yesterday and will also be trying to get a good off-ramp for FPH and SUM in the next couple of months. That will leave me with two penny dreadfuls in the bottom drawer because it is not worth selling them at a loss.

I concur with BP & Iceman
Dorkus
Check this out
https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NZX-BLT/technicals/
https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/ASX-BSR/technicals/

[Dorkus]

Have you considered pulling the losers from the bottom drawer and getting rid of them and keeping a little of your winners instead ? That would certainly be my preference !

The problem is I have 500K shares in losers that total value is about $9k...
$9k doesn't buy much ATM and I think one day they will/might be worth something. For the money, it is worth holding on to them (for me anyway) in the hope that they one day take off. If it was the difference between being able to pay the mortgage or not then I'd definitely be cashing them up, but at ~3% of my portfolio it's not really worth it.

[iceman]

The problem is I have 500K shares in losers that total value is about $9k...
$9k doesn't buy much ATM and I think one day they will/might be worth something. For the money, it is worth holding on to them (for me anyway) in the hope that they one day take off. If it was the difference between being able to pay the mortgage or not then I'd definitely be cashing them up, but at ~3% of my portfolio it's not really worth it.

Fair enough. I’d point out though that $9k of losers will buy you $9k of ATM or other winners. The market certainly appears to be favouring quality growth stocks and in my view ATM,FPH,SML,SUM,HBL,MFT and THL (more risky) fit that criteria.

But only you know your personal situation so ignore us and stick to your own well considered conviction.
You’ve obviously done well so good on you

[minimoke]

The problem is I have 500K shares in losers that total value is about $9k...
$9k doesn't buy much ATM and I think one day they will/might be worth something. For the money, it is worth holding on to them (for me anyway) in the hope that they one day take off. .Hope isnt a great investment strategy. I've hadmy losers. Held onto them in hope. Hope got me nowhere - other than them becoming worth evn less.

Think of it this way. When your loosers do (if!) start to turn how much do you expect them to increase in value. 10%. 20%, 50%? and in what sort of timeframe. 1 year. 2 years, 5 years?

Howabout cashing up and putting them into something that gives you confidence will increase. Eg I have every confidence, based on available information, that ATM will be worth $20 within my 5 year window. I sold PPH (after loosing confidence) and put the money into ATM. In 20 days they have gone up $2.52 or 24%. In the meantime PPH has gone up 7%. Why would I want PPH in my bottom drawer?

[minimoke]

Looks like we've had our moment of wealth. With profit takers now pillaging our new found gains.

[ziggy415]

The problem is I have 500K shares in losers that total value is about $9k...
$9k doesn't buy much ATM and I think one day they will/might be worth something. For the money, it is worth holding on to them (for me anyway) in the hope that they one day take off. If it was the difference between being able to pay the mortgage or not then I'd definitely be cashing them up, but at ~3% of my portfolio it's not really worth it.
I once bought some some shares and they dropped in price so i bought some more and then they dropped so i bought some more and so on till i had 160,000 for $80,000 but they kept dropping but the hole was getting deeper so I stopped digging, but dreams can come true and the price started to climb so when they got to around 85 cents I decided to sell and was ready to put guru along side my name...only trouble was this company became a big seller of some odd milk powder to China...aussie sales took off and now there starting in America...you may have heard of them...why didn't I sell half and keep half....so if your valueless shares do take off,don't rush to sell...did I learn..hell no,had 1500 xero shares for 75 cents each and sold when they doubled in price...some guru eh....still sun still comes up every morning

[Beagle]

Looks like we've had our moment of wealth. With profit takers now pillaging our new found gains.

Been out all morning helping Mrs Beagle and came back fully expecting a reasonable pullback as after 3 straight days of meteoric gains it simply doesn't seem plausible we'll get another one. Stocks seldom go up steeply in a straight line. Pleasantly surprised things tracking along so nicely which augers well for the future as this stock has a history of being like a whores drawers.

[minimoke]

Pleasantly surprised things tracking along so nicely which augers well for the future as this stock has a history of being like a whores drawers.I dont mind - as long as each time she pulls them up higher and tighter and stops them going lower thanlast time

[iceman]

I once bought some some shares and they dropped in price so i bought some more and then they dropped so i bought some more and so on till i had 160,000 for $80,000 but they kept dropping but the hole was getting deeper so I stopped digging, but dreams can come true and the price started to climb so when they got to around 85 cents I decided to sell and was ready to put guru along side my name...only trouble was this company became a big seller of some odd milk powder to China...aussie sales took off and now there starting in America...you may have heard of them...why didn't I sell half and keep half....so if your valueless shares do take off,don't rush to sell...did I learn..hell no,had 1500 xero shares for 75 cents each and sold when they doubled in price...some guru eh....still sun still comes up every morning

I know the feeling. Like you, I now know never to sell ALL my shares of a winner. Yes get your money back and some profit, but dont dump them. When I look back over my 25 odd years of sharemarket investing, I'm pleased with most of my well considered purchases. Not as pleased with some of my emotionally charged sales. We live and learn

[davflaws]

Hope isnt a great investment strategy. I've hadmy losers. Held onto them in hope. Hope got me nowhere - other than them becoming worth evn less.

Think of it this way. When your loosers do (if!) start to turn how much do you expect them to increase in value. 10%. 20%, 50%? and in what sort of timeframe. 1 year. 2 years, 5 years?

Howabout cashing up and putting them into something that gives you confidence will increase. Eg I have every confidence, based on available information, that ATM will be worth $20 within my 5 year window. I sold PPH (after loosing confidence) and put the money into ATM. In 20 days they have gone up $2.52 or 24%. In the meantime PPH has gone up 7%. Why would I want PPH in my bottom drawer?

You wouldn't - in hindsight. But a long time ago, I put a small proportion of my portfolio into PEB, PLX, BLT, and ATM. I was punting on a small loss against a big win. I got lucky, or something. Now I look at the red for the first three and console myself with the massive gain on ATM. I have put the first three "punt"s in the bottom drawer because the brokerage on getting out at this stage is a significant proportion of the value that remains, and any one of them could go ballistic at some stage in the future. I would acknowledge that this is gambling rather than investing, but ATM dealt me a royal flush. .

[minimoke]

I know the feeling. Like you, I now know never to sell ALL my shares of a winner. Theres more good advice. A few years back had to fund the build of a house. Shares went on the block. But not all of them. Kept a few back. This is my Portfolio One. All (except oneshare) have returned over 300% over time since then. The other, RYM has remained on a stella trajectory

[minimoke]

Its a bit grubby when you get sell down notices released to market at 4:58pm
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/ATM/323098/285821.pdf

[BlackPeter]

Its a bit grubby when you get sell down notices released to market at 4:58pm
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/ATM/323098/285821.pdf

Wow - that's nearly a million shares sold ... but than ... no worries.

She probably just wants to increase liquidity, build a new deck and buy a small private jet; All honky-dory :D;

[winner69]

Its a bit grubby when you get sell down notices released to market at 4:58pm
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/ATM/323098/285821.pdf


That Susan done well with her bonuses over the last few years hasn’t she

And plenty more to come

Nothing sinister here ...just cashing in some of her bonuses.

[winner69]

Wow - that's nearly a million shares sold ... but than ... no worries.

She probably just wants to increase liquidity, build a new deck and buy a small private jet; All honky-dory :D;

She had to pay $126,000 to convert the options

Give her some due — she probably one of the key driving forces behind A2, maybe even more so than Babich

She deserves every cent of that indecent bonus ....though probably didn’t seem much when she got it

[BlackPeter]

She had to pay $126,000 to convert the options

Give her some due — she probably one of the key driving forces behind A2, maybe even more so than Babich

She deserves every cent of that indecent bonus ....though probably didn’t seem much when she got it

Payed $126k and cashed in 12 million (give or take). Not bad, and I am sure is worth every single dollar. It is just that people in her elevated seats tend to see peaks earlier than us mere mortals, but I am sure she just wanted the money (s. above) - and of course is she entitled to it.

[Ggcc]

She had to pay $126,000 to convert the options

Give her some due — she probably one of the key driving forces behind A2, maybe even more so than Babich

She deserves every cent of that indecent bonus ....though probably didn’t seem much when she got it

I feel two ways about where if you work hard you should be paid well and then I have another thought how much is paid well? How do we morally judge someone as to how much they are getting paid? $16.50 minimum wage and directors of companies or workers that do really well they get paid a hell of a lot more............... I am happy with all directors, but even they might think they are overpaid at some stage or lucky to be working with such a great team.

[winner69]

I feel two ways about where if you work hard you should be paid well and then I have another thought how much is paid well? How do we morally judge someone as to how much they are getting paid? $16.50 minimum wage and directors of companies that do really well they get paid a hell of a lot more............... I am happy with all directors, but even they might think they are overpaid at some stage or lucky to be working with such a great team.

It’s not her fault the share price is where it is.

Maybe she even thought that 63 cents for the options was a big hurdle in days bygone,

[Baa_Baa]

It’s not her fault the share price is where it is.

Maybe she even thought that 63 cents for the options was a big hurdle in days bygone,

It's not that she's not entitled as a shareholder to realise the payday, it is just that these circumstances always raise the (unanswerable) question of the timing of the sell when privy to inside knowledge.

[Ggcc]

It’s not her fault the share price is where it is.

Maybe she even thought that 63 cents for the options was a big hurdle in days bygone,

I agree, but I am sure they all still feel a little guilty with that sort of money, that is human behaviour.

[777]

There will be rules as to when they can sell them and I am sure she will have complied with them.

[minimoke]

It's not that she's not entitled as a shareholder to realise the payday, it is just that these circumstances always raise the (unanswerable) question of the timing of the sell when privy to inside knowledge.
Thats my issue - I have no problem with her selling, But c'mon. How about letting the NZ market know during normal trading hours.

[bull....]

probably fall on the news , such a big insider sale from such a key person.

[minimoke]

probably fall on the news , such a big insider sale from such a key person.Australia closed a little later at AUD$11.65 or $12.76. So may not be too bad. She must have a bloody big deck to build

[Beagle]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12116434

Embrace the volatility and buy on the dips.

[minimoke]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12116434

.
I missed thsi bit of news "In the "news flow" this week was a2 Milk's inclusion on the FTSE Global Equity Index Series — Asia Pacific ex Japan — for mid cap companies.

[minimoke]

Mate, when I order my latte I want yummy scrummy A2 in it. None of your wowsery bean curd tofu goo or whatever plant excretion you want to stick in it. A2 - guaranteed to keep you in business!

https://www.stuff.co.nz/life-style/food-wine/food-news/106717422/cafe-operator-closed-down-for-going-dairyfree

[t.rexjr]

Mate, when I order my latte I want yummy scrummy A2 in it. None of your wowsery bean curd tofu goo or whatever plant excretion you want to stick in it. A2 - guaranteed to keep you in business!

https://www.stuff.co.nz/life-style/food-wine/food-news/106717422/cafe-operator-closed-down-for-going-dairyfree

The right to choose is not his choice

[Beagle]

What an idiot. Some people in business deserve to go broke especially the arrogant ones that think they have "the answer" rather than letting the ones paying for the coffee have the choice. Retail 101 the customer is always right ! What part of the whole facilities thing being owned by a Trust for the community's benefit does he fail to understand for goodness sake...

[Ggcc]

Sounds like a complete idiot. I had a business which was successful for giving customers the option for what they wanted. I get so annoyed with people pushing their way onto me. If I am the customer, I get to consume what I want.

[dobby41]

The right to choose is not his choice

Actually it is.
As a business owner he has the right to run it how he wants. Free enterprise.
If that doesn't suit the target (or potential) customers then they have the right to not buy from him.
In this case the committee had the right to terminate his contract.

Right business - wrong place really.

[dobby41]

Sounds like a complete idiot. I had a business which was successful for giving customers the option for what they wanted. I get so annoyed with people pushing their way onto me. If I am the customer, I get to consume what I want.

Why get annoyed? Vote with your feet.
There are lots of business' (particularly restaurants) that I won't frequent because I don't like what they offer.
Their choice to offer what they do, mine to not take part.

[Beagle]

1. Open a cafe with a landlord that offers free rent, free water, free electricity.
2. Decide that my ideology has such merit that I can fly in the face of conformity, and convince my customers and landlord that there is HUGE demand for coffee without milk.
3. Get shut down by the provider of my free rent, water, and electricity because their patrons aren't ideologues with my idiotic agenda and realise that common sense must prevail.
4. Back on the dole.

I like this comment in the comments section. Sums it up perfectly. This guy is a waste of space, let's get back to discussing ATM

[Patient Panda]

Have been doing a decent bit of research on ATM last fews days. We all know its a great company with a bright future, the question for me is what price is good value for this future growth? Would love to hear how you think its growth prospects stack up at current PE.

I’m sure for the next 1-3 years they will continue at their frenzied pace of growth but at what point will the growth curve become less steep and how quickly?

[Snow Leopard]

Have been doing a decent bit of research on ATM last fews days. We all know its a great company with a bright future, the question for me is what price is good value for this future growth? Would love to hear how you think its growth prospects stack up at current PE.

I’m sure for the next 1-3 years they will continue at their frenzied pace of growth but at what point will the growth curve become less steep and how quickly?

Given that you know its a great company with a bright future and you are sure of the frenzied pace then you have a greater degree of certainty than me.

Perhaps you should come up with some numbers for us, if you are not too busy
9890

[Ggcc]

If I look at what I think this is worth I look into other companies worth. Looking into Xero and their growth and A2 and their growth. I then look at turnover and profits and then I look into their share price and see that A2 should be priced well over $20 given they make a generous profit....................... DYOR please.

[Beagle]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12117246&utm_source=ST&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=ShareTrader+AM+Update+for+Saturday+1+ September+2018
http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/299d9dea/market-close-nz-shares-fall-today-led-lower-by-sky-tv-and-tourism-holdings-but-gain-4-4-percent-in-august.html?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=MARKET%20CLOSE%20NZ%20shares%20fall%2 0today%20led%20lower%20by%20Sky%20TV%20and%20Touri sm%20Holdings%20but%20gain%2044%20percent%20in%20A ugust&utm_content=MARKET%20CLOSE%20NZ%20shares%20fall%20 today%20led%20lower%20by%20Sky%20TV%20and%20Touris m%20Holdings%20but%20gain%2044%20percent%20in%20Au gust+CID_53e37ff29df1751164b8b6ce55efb72c&utm_source=Email%20marketing%20software&utm_term=httpwwwsharechatconzarticle299d9deamarket-close-nz-shares-fall-today-led-lower-by-sky-tv-and-tourism-holdings-but-gain-4-4-percent-in-augusthtml

August was an interesting month, up 4.4%.
I noted the following interesting movements, (I am sure there are others, these are simply the interesting ones I noted)
HLG $5.10 to $6.29 up 23.3% (my goodness that Aussie fund really likes this company a LOT !)
SML $10.75 to $12.80 up 19.1% (ATM likes it and the market seems to be rerating it to)
ATM $10.40 to $12.62 up 21.3% (Market liked the result and brokers upgraded significantly)
THL $6.10 to $5.60 down 8.2% (Company needs to better articulate how their investment in TH2 will pay dividends in my opinion)
TRA $3.10 to $2.96 down 4.5% (On no news that's a very disappointing SP performance relative to the index for the month)
OCA $1.13 to $1.14 up just 0.9% (Sector has been strong this month lead by RYM, the elephant in the room is suppressing the SP)

I suspect after such a good month September could prove to be more challenging.
I might be tempted to have a crack at one or two of the underperformers above once they settle a bit more as its hard to see the outperformers kicking on much further in the short term, (with the possible exception of Synlait which reports on 19th Sept and could deliver a great result and news regarding a stronger than expected outlook)

[winner69]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12117246&utm_source=ST&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=ShareTrader+AM+Update+for+Saturday+1+ September+2018
http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/299d9dea/market-close-nz-shares-fall-today-led-lower-by-sky-tv-and-tourism-holdings-but-gain-4-4-percent-in-august.html?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=MARKET%20CLOSE%20NZ%20shares%20fall%2 0today%20led%20lower%20by%20Sky%20TV%20and%20Touri sm%20Holdings%20but%20gain%2044%20percent%20in%20A ugust&utm_content=MARKET%20CLOSE%20NZ%20shares%20fall%20 today%20led%20lower%20by%20Sky%20TV%20and%20Touris m%20Holdings%20but%20gain%2044%20percent%20in%20Au gust+CID_53e37ff29df1751164b8b6ce55efb72c&utm_source=Email%20marketing%20software&utm_term=httpwwwsharechatconzarticle299d9deamarket-close-nz-shares-fall-today-led-lower-by-sky-tv-and-tourism-holdings-but-gain-4-4-percent-in-augusthtml

August was an interesting month, up 4.4%.
I noted the following interesting movements, (I am sure there are others, these are simply the interesting ones I noted)
HLG $5.10 to $6.29 up 23.3% (my goodness that Aussie fund really likes this company a LOT !)
SML $10.75 to $12.80 up 19.1% (ATM likes it and the market seems to be rerating it to)
ATM $10.40 to $12.62 up 21.3% (Market liked the result and brokers upgraded significantly)
THL $6.10 to $5.60 down 8.2% (Company needs to better articulate how their investment in TH2 will pay dividends in my opinion)
TRA $3.10 to $2.96 down 4.5% (On no news that's a very disappointing SP performance relative to the index for the month)
OCA $1.13 to $1.14 up just 0.9% (Sector has been strong this month lead by RYM, the elephant in the room is suppressing the SP)

I suspect after such a good month September could prove to be more challenging.
I might be tempted to have a crack at one or two of the underperformers above once they settle a bit more as its hard to see the outperformers kicking on much further in the short term, (with the possible exception of Synlait which reports on 19th Sept and could deliver a great result and news regarding a stronger than expected outlook)

Interesting ...but you left SUM out (DOWN a fraction in what you say was a strong sector..hmmm)

So TRA, OCA and SUM a bit of a disappointment while HLG, ATM, SML and RYM good

It seems to be that the laggards don't have a very good 'narrative' and as such don't turn most punters (believers excepted) on compared to the others mentioned who have a good story to tell which excites a lot of punters.

THL - as you say their 'narrative' has become a bit confused and the market is confused (maybe) and don't like it

That's how I see it ..... 'narratives' have become more important than fundamentals such as ratios etc

[Beagle]

Got SUM in my July 31 Spreadsheet at $7.60, closed August at $7.68 after shedding a 6 cent divvy so effectively up 14 cents for the month, 1.8%, underperforming the index and that despite Julian being quite clear with his narrative accompanying the half year result. I would say the market was slightly underwhelmed with the result and needs to see more sales on the board.
I'm expecting good things from SUM in the next 6 months and topped up this month. Sometimes after the market has run hot its better to chase the underperformers than what's flavor of the month...

[Patient Panda]

That's how I see it ..... 'narratives' have become more important than fundamentals such as ratios etc

Yep seems this is bang on the money over the short to medium term. Another product of a continuing low interest rate environment eh Winner.

[Beagle]

Turners have been all over the country telling their story in a pretty convincing way but their narrative which has been clearly and thoroughly articulated has done nothing to help their share price !
ATM had very, very little to say about the outlook for FY19 and yet their SP has had one of the strongest months of any stock on the NZX in August.
SUM had a fair bit to say about a positive looking second half coming but their narrative didn't help them.
RYM have been as quiet as a church mouse this month but SP up nearly 16%