ATM - A2 Milk Corporation Limited

[couta1]

bit of tongue and cheek


10041 Kinda sums up the situation perfectly, a picture speaks a thousand words.

[gbogo]

my view... CEO actions don't look great, but the market's reaction indicated that the market was ready for a fall. If there had been plenty of fresh buyers, they would have bought. But I suspect all the passive funds were in, all the trend-followers were in, all the quick-buck punters were in or gone.. Personally, I've had a terrible time with ATM this year, but i don't blame the market for that. I'm surprised at the way the share price keeps coming off, but that's telling us something. Buying in the low $10 area should make sense, but there's a horrible chart pattern that says it $10.00 goes then it's $7.50 next stop..

[couta1]

my view... CEO actions don't look great, but the market's reaction indicated that the market was ready for a fall. If there had been plenty of fresh buyers, they would have bought. But I suspect all the passive funds were in, all the trend-followers were in, all the quick-buck punters were in or gone.. Personally, I've had a terrible time with ATM this year, but i don't blame the market for that. I'm surprised at the way the share price keeps coming off, but that's telling us something. Buying in the low $10 area should make sense, but there's a horrible chart pattern that says it $10.00 goes then it's $7.50 next stop.. $7.50 would mean there's something seriously wrong with the fundamentals and basically no growth going forward which seems highly unlikely.

[James108]

$7.5 would equate to a trailing p/e of around 25, still implying very high growth is priced in.

[777]

Talking it down won't do it any good either.

[steveb]

well nobody seems to want to sell this am.Just 18k shares sold price $10.60 with the next seller at $10.80.Can't be waiting on aussie again!!

[gbogo]

$7.50 would mean there's something seriously wrong with the fundamentals and basically no growth going forward which seems highly unlikely.

agreed, it does seem unlikely. however, I try to go through what-if scenarios and try to figure out what their impact might be.. eg what if US markets took a big fall (like they can do in October..) and spooked markets here? what if some more bad news came out of China re: daigou? what if ATM exited an index for next re-balance and some of the passives had to reverse and sell..?

[couta1]

agreed, it does seem unlikely. however, I try to go through what-if scenarios and try to figure out what their impact might be.. eg what if US markets took a big fall (like they can do in October..) and spooked markets here? what if some more bad news came out of China re: daigou? what if ATM exited an index for next re-balance and some of the passives had to reverse and sell..? Yes I agree re all those scenarios and that's why I put in a former post that only those holding under $7 have any real safety net.

[nzsharetrade]

never had any good thing after joining index, we see what happens when ATM exits the index.

[Muppett]

That $9.50 gap is not too far away.
Fundamentals .... yeah right.

[Baa_Baa]

agreed, it does seem unlikely. however, I try to go through what-if scenarios and try to figure out what their impact might be.. eg what if US markets took a big fall (like they can do in October..) and spooked markets here? what if some more bad news came out of China re: daigou? what if ATM exited an index for next re-balance and some of the passives had to reverse and sell..?

A reminder of how it can all go horribly wrong (https://www.news.com.au/finance/business/manufacturing/former-bellamys-chief-executive-laura-mcbains-fall-from-glory/news-story/afc05dd7ea62d04a715ae96581c75c3d), starting with the CEO selling a bunch of shares, then failing to communicate with shareholders over market circumstances and then not meeting lofty sales targets.

Reflect on the unfolding parallels with ATM. And look at what it did to the share price (https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BAL.AX/chart?p=BAL.AX#eyJpbnRlcnZhbCI6IndlZWsiLCJwZXJpb2R pY2l0eSI6MSwiY2FuZGxlV2lkdGgiOj****E2NTU2MjkxMzkwN zI5LCJ2b2x1bWVVbmRlcmxheSI6dHJ1ZSwiYWRqIjp0cnVlLCJ jcm9zc2hhaXIiOnRydWUsImNoYXJ0VHlwZSI6ImNhbmRsZSIsI mV4dGVuZGVkIjpmYWxzZSwibWFya2V0U2Vzc2lvbnMiOnt9LCJ hZ2dyZWdhdGlvblR5cGUiOiJvaGxjIiwiY2hhcnRTY2FsZSI6I mxvZyIsInBhbmVscyI6eyJjaGFydCI6eyJwZXJjZW50IjowLjY 0LCJkaXNwbGF5IjoiQkFMLkFYIiwiY2hhcnROYW1lIjoiY2hhc nQiLCJ0b3AiOjB9LCLigIxyc2nigIwgKDE0KSI6eyJwZXJjZW5 0IjowLjE2LCJkaXNwbGF5Ijoi4oCMcnNp4oCMICgxNCkiLCJja GFydE5hbWUiOiJjaGFydCIsInRvcCI6MjkzLjEyfSwi4oCMbWF jZOKAjCAoMTIsMjYsOSkiOnsicGVyY2VudCI6MC4xOTk5OTk5O Tk5OTk5OTk5NiwiZGlzcGxheSI6IuKAjG1hY2TigIwgKDEyLDI 2LDkpIiwiY2hhcnROYW1lIjoiY2hhcnQiLCJ0b3AiOjM2Ni40f X0sInNldFNwYW4iOm51bGwsImxpbmVXaWR0aCI6Miwic3RyaXB lZEJhY2tncm91ZCI6dHJ1ZSwiZXZlbnRzIjp0cnVlLCJjb2xvc iI6IiMwMDgxZjIiLCJldmVudE1hcCI6eyJjb3Jwb3JhdGUiOns iZGl2cyI6dHJ1ZSwic3BsaXRzIjp0cnVlfSwidGVjaG5pY2FsI jp7fSwic2lnRGV2Ijp7fX0sImN1c3RvbVJhbmdlIjpudWxsLCJ zeW1ib2xzIjpbeyJzeW1ib2wiOiJCQUwuQVgiLCJzeW1ib2xPY mplY3QiOnsic3ltYm9sIjoiQkFMLkFYIn0sInBlcmlvZGljaXR 5IjoxLCJpbnRlcnZhbCI6IndlZWsiLCJzZXRTcGFuIjpudWxsf V0sInJhbmdlIjpudWxsLCJzdHVkaWVzIjp7InZvbCB1bmRyIjp 7InR5cGUiOiJ2b2wgdW5kciIsImlucHV0cyI6eyJpZCI6InZvb CB1bmRyIiwiZGlzcGxheSI6InZvbCB1bmRyIn0sIm91dHB1dHM iOnsiVXAgVm9sdW1lIjoiIzAwYjA2MSIsIkRvd24gVm9sdW1lI joiI0ZGMzMzQSJ9LCJwYW5lbCI6ImNoYXJ0IiwicGFyYW1ldGV ycyI6eyJ3aWR0aEZhY3RvciI6MC40NSwiY2hhcnROYW1lIjoiY 2hhcnQifX0sIuKAjG1h4oCMICgyMDAsQyxtYSwwKSI6eyJ0eXB lIjoibWEiLCJpbnB1dHMiOnsiUGVyaW9kIjoiMjAwIiwiRmllb GQiOiJDbG9zZSIsIlR5cGUiOiJzaW1wbGUiLCJPZmZzZXQiOjA sImlkIjoi4oCMbWHigIwgKDIwMCxDLG1hLDApIiwiZGlzcGxhe SI6IuKAjG1h4oCMICgyMDAsQyxtYSwwKSJ9LCJvdXRwdXRzIjp 7Ik1BIjoiI2FkNmVmZiJ9LCJwYW5lbCI6ImNoYXJ0IiwicGFyY W1ldGVycyI6eyJjaGFydE5hbWUiOiJjaGFydCJ9fSwi4oCMbWH igIwgKDUwLEMsZW1hLDApIjp7InR5cGUiOiJtYSIsImlucHV0c yI6eyJQZXJpb2QiOjUwLCJGaWVsZCI6IkNsb3NlIiwiVHlwZSI 6ImV4cG9uZW50aWFsIiwiT2Zmc2V0IjowLCJpZCI6IuKAjG1h4 oCMICg1MCxDLGVtYSwwKSIsImRpc3BsYXkiOiLigIxtYeKAjCA oNTAsQyxlbWEsMCkifSwib3V0cHV0cyI6eyJNQSI6IiMwMDljN TYifSwicGFuZWwiOiJjaGFydCIsInBhcmFtZXRlcnMiOnsiY2h hcnROYW1lIjoiY2hhcnQifX0sIuKAjHJzaeKAjCAoMTQpIjp7I nR5cGUiOiJyc2kiLCJpbnB1dHMiOnsiUGVyaW9kIjoxNCwiaWQ iOiLigIxyc2nigIwgKDE0KSIsImRpc3BsYXkiOiLigIxyc2nig IwgKDE0KSJ9LCJvdXRwdXRzIjp7IlJTSSI6IiNhZDZlZmYifSw icGFuZWwiOiLigIxyc2nigIwgKDE0KSIsInBhcmFtZXRlcnMiO nsic3R1ZHlPdmVyWm9uZXNFbmFibGVkIjp0cnVlLCJzdHVkeU9 2ZXJCb3VnaHRWYWx1ZSI6ODAsInN0dWR5T3ZlckJvdWdodENvb G9yIjoiIzc5ZjRiZCIsInN0dWR5T3ZlclNvbGRWYWx1ZSI6MjA sInN0dWR5T3ZlclNvbGRDb2xvciI6IiNmZjgwODQiLCJjaGFyd E5hbWUiOiJjaGFydCJ9fSwi4oCMbWFjZOKAjCAoMTIsMjYsOSk iOnsidHlwZSI6Im1hY2QiLCJpbnB1dHMiOnsiRmFzdCBNQSBQZ XJpb2QiOjEyLCJTbG93IE1BIFBlcmlvZCI6MjYsIlNpZ25hbCB QZXJpb2QiOjksImlkIjoi4oCMbWFjZOKAjCAoMTIsMjYsOSkiL CJkaXNwbGF5Ijoi4oCMbWFjZOKAjCAoMTIsMjYsOSkifSwib3V 0cHV0cyI6eyJNQUNEIjoiI2FkNmVmZiIsIlNpZ25hbCI6IiNmZ mEzM2YiLCJJbmNyZWFzaW5nIEJhciI6IiM3OWY0YmQiLCJEZWN yZWFzaW5nIEJhciI6IiNmZjgwODQifSwicGFuZWwiOiLigIxtY WNk4oCMICgxMiwyNiw5KSIsInBhcmFtZXRlcnMiOnsiY2hhcnR OYW1lIjoiY2hhcnQifX0sIuKAjG1h4oCMICgyMDAsQyxlbWEsM CkiOnsidHlwZSI6Im1hIiwiaW5wdXRzIjp7IlBlcmlvZCI6IjI wMCIsIkZpZWxkIjoiQ2xvc2UiLCJUeXBlIjoiZXhwb25lbnRpY WwiLCJPZmZzZXQiOjAsImlkIjoi4oCMbWHigIwgKDIwMCxDLGV tYSwwKSIsImRpc3BsYXkiOiLigIxtYeKAjCAoMjAwLEMsZW1hL DApIn0sIm91dHB1dHMiOnsiTUEiOiIjYzczYjBhIn0sInBhbmV sIjoiY2hhcnQiLCJwYXJhbWV0ZXJzIjp7ImNoYXJ0TmFtZSI6I mNoYXJ0In19fX0%3D).

[couta1]

That $9.50 gap is not too far away.
Fundamentals .... yeah right. Anyone buying over the last six months has had their table wiped clean, it is a very ugly stock to own for all those people.

[couta1]

A reminder of how it can all go horribly wrong (https://www.news.com.au/finance/business/manufacturing/former-bellamys-chief-executive-laura-mcbains-fall-from-glory/news-story/afc05dd7ea62d04a715ae96581c75c3d), starting with the CEO selling a bunch of shares, then failing to communicate with shareholders over market circumstances and then not meeting lofty sales targets.

Reflect on the unfolding parallels with ATM. And look at what it did to the share price (https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BAL.AX/chart?p=BAL.AX#eyJpbnRlcnZhbCI6IndlZWsiLCJwZXJpb2R pY2l0eSI6MSwiY2FuZGxlV2lkdGgiOj****E2NTU2MjkxMzkwN zI5LCJ2b2x1bWVVbmRlcmxheSI6dHJ1ZSwiYWRqIjp0cnVlLCJ jcm9zc2hhaXIiOnRydWUsImNoYXJ0VHlwZSI6ImNhbmRsZSIsI mV4dGVuZGVkIjpmYWxzZSwibWFya2V0U2Vzc2lvbnMiOnt9LCJ hZ2dyZWdhdGlvblR5cGUiOiJvaGxjIiwiY2hhcnRTY2FsZSI6I mxvZyIsInBhbmVscyI6eyJjaGFydCI6eyJwZXJjZW50IjowLjY 0LCJkaXNwbGF5IjoiQkFMLkFYIiwiY2hhcnROYW1lIjoiY2hhc nQiLCJ0b3AiOjB9LCLigIxyc2nigIwgKDE0KSI6eyJwZXJjZW5 0IjowLjE2LCJkaXNwbGF5Ijoi4oCMcnNp4oCMICgxNCkiLCJja GFydE5hbWUiOiJjaGFydCIsInRvcCI6MjkzLjEyfSwi4oCMbWF jZOKAjCAoMTIsMjYsOSkiOnsicGVyY2VudCI6MC4xOTk5OTk5O Tk5OTk5OTk5NiwiZGlzcGxheSI6IuKAjG1hY2TigIwgKDEyLDI 2LDkpIiwiY2hhcnROYW1lIjoiY2hhcnQiLCJ0b3AiOjM2Ni40f X0sInNldFNwYW4iOm51bGwsImxpbmVXaWR0aCI6Miwic3RyaXB lZEJhY2tncm91ZCI6dHJ1ZSwiZXZlbnRzIjp0cnVlLCJjb2xvc iI6IiMwMDgxZjIiLCJldmVudE1hcCI6eyJjb3Jwb3JhdGUiOns iZGl2cyI6dHJ1ZSwic3BsaXRzIjp0cnVlfSwidGVjaG5pY2FsI jp7fSwic2lnRGV2Ijp7fX0sImN1c3RvbVJhbmdlIjpudWxsLCJ zeW1ib2xzIjpbeyJzeW1ib2wiOiJCQUwuQVgiLCJzeW1ib2xPY mplY3QiOnsic3ltYm9sIjoiQkFMLkFYIn0sInBlcmlvZGljaXR 5IjoxLCJpbnRlcnZhbCI6IndlZWsiLCJzZXRTcGFuIjpudWxsf V0sInJhbmdlIjpudWxsLCJzdHVkaWVzIjp7InZvbCB1bmRyIjp 7InR5cGUiOiJ2b2wgdW5kciIsImlucHV0cyI6eyJpZCI6InZvb CB1bmRyIiwiZGlzcGxheSI6InZvbCB1bmRyIn0sIm91dHB1dHM iOnsiVXAgVm9sdW1lIjoiIzAwYjA2MSIsIkRvd24gVm9sdW1lI joiI0ZGMzMzQSJ9LCJwYW5lbCI6ImNoYXJ0IiwicGFyYW1ldGV ycyI6eyJ3aWR0aEZhY3RvciI6MC40NSwiY2hhcnROYW1lIjoiY 2hhcnQifX0sIuKAjG1h4oCMICgyMDAsQyxtYSwwKSI6eyJ0eXB lIjoibWEiLCJpbnB1dHMiOnsiUGVyaW9kIjoiMjAwIiwiRmllb GQiOiJDbG9zZSIsIlR5cGUiOiJzaW1wbGUiLCJPZmZzZXQiOjA sImlkIjoi4oCMbWHigIwgKDIwMCxDLG1hLDApIiwiZGlzcGxhe SI6IuKAjG1h4oCMICgyMDAsQyxtYSwwKSJ9LCJvdXRwdXRzIjp 7Ik1BIjoiI2FkNmVmZiJ9LCJwYW5lbCI6ImNoYXJ0IiwicGFyY W1ldGVycyI6eyJjaGFydE5hbWUiOiJjaGFydCJ9fSwi4oCMbWH igIwgKDUwLEMsZW1hLDApIjp7InR5cGUiOiJtYSIsImlucHV0c yI6eyJQZXJpb2QiOjUwLCJGaWVsZCI6IkNsb3NlIiwiVHlwZSI 6ImV4cG9uZW50aWFsIiwiT2Zmc2V0IjowLCJpZCI6IuKAjG1h4 oCMICg1MCxDLGVtYSwwKSIsImRpc3BsYXkiOiLigIxtYeKAjCA oNTAsQyxlbWEsMCkifSwib3V0cHV0cyI6eyJNQSI6IiMwMDljN TYifSwicGFuZWwiOiJjaGFydCIsInBhcmFtZXRlcnMiOnsiY2h hcnROYW1lIjoiY2hhcnQifX0sIuKAjHJzaeKAjCAoMTQpIjp7I nR5cGUiOiJyc2kiLCJpbnB1dHMiOnsiUGVyaW9kIjoxNCwiaWQ iOiLigIxyc2nigIwgKDE0KSIsImRpc3BsYXkiOiLigIxyc2nig IwgKDE0KSJ9LCJvdXRwdXRzIjp7IlJTSSI6IiNhZDZlZmYifSw icGFuZWwiOiLigIxyc2nigIwgKDE0KSIsInBhcmFtZXRlcnMiO nsic3R1ZHlPdmVyWm9uZXNFbmFibGVkIjp0cnVlLCJzdHVkeU9 2ZXJCb3VnaHRWYWx1ZSI6ODAsInN0dWR5T3ZlckJvdWdodENvb G9yIjoiIzc5ZjRiZCIsInN0dWR5T3ZlclNvbGRWYWx1ZSI6MjA sInN0dWR5T3ZlclNvbGRDb2xvciI6IiNmZjgwODQiLCJjaGFyd E5hbWUiOiJjaGFydCJ9fSwi4oCMbWFjZOKAjCAoMTIsMjYsOSk iOnsidHlwZSI6Im1hY2QiLCJpbnB1dHMiOnsiRmFzdCBNQSBQZ XJpb2QiOjEyLCJTbG93IE1BIFBlcmlvZCI6MjYsIlNpZ25hbCB QZXJpb2QiOjksImlkIjoi4oCMbWFjZOKAjCAoMTIsMjYsOSkiL CJkaXNwbGF5Ijoi4oCMbWFjZOKAjCAoMTIsMjYsOSkifSwib3V 0cHV0cyI6eyJNQUNEIjoiI2FkNmVmZiIsIlNpZ25hbCI6IiNmZ mEzM2YiLCJJbmNyZWFzaW5nIEJhciI6IiM3OWY0YmQiLCJEZWN yZWFzaW5nIEJhciI6IiNmZjgwODQifSwicGFuZWwiOiLigIxtY WNk4oCMICgxMiwyNiw5KSIsInBhcmFtZXRlcnMiOnsiY2hhcnR OYW1lIjoiY2hhcnQifX0sIuKAjG1h4oCMICgyMDAsQyxlbWEsM CkiOnsidHlwZSI6Im1hIiwiaW5wdXRzIjp7IlBlcmlvZCI6IjI wMCIsIkZpZWxkIjoiQ2xvc2UiLCJUeXBlIjoiZXhwb25lbnRpY WwiLCJPZmZzZXQiOjAsImlkIjoi4oCMbWHigIwgKDIwMCxDLGV tYSwwKSIsImRpc3BsYXkiOiLigIxtYeKAjCAoMjAwLEMsZW1hL DApIn0sIm91dHB1dHMiOnsiTUEiOiIjYzczYjBhIn0sInBhbmV sIjoiY2hhcnQiLCJwYXJhbWV0ZXJzIjp7ImNoYXJ0TmFtZSI6I mNoYXJ0In19fX0%3D). True but after that the SP went back to an all time high of $23 even without Chinese registration like A2 has.

[Muppett]

Anyone buying over the last six months has had their table wiped clean, it is a very ugly stock to own for all those people.

Apparently now there so much buying opportunity, how can anybody not buy as we all have deep pockets.
After all there is a buyer for every seller, so some think these price falls are attractive buying opportunities, all-be-it on small volume.
See weed will be happy if it continues to go down.

[see weed]

If it doesn't go below 10.12c, then I would say we are in a very very very slow uptrend from here. last 5 months lows...24/5/18=9.99c, 2/8/18=10.12c...and today....10.15c;)ps funny on both of those days the sp finished up 42c on 24/5/18 and up 11c on2/8/18.

[Baa_Baa]

True but after that the SP went back to an all time high of $23 even without Chinese registration like A2 has. Indeed and where is the price now relative to the grossly over-valued over-bought all time high of $23? Anyway, didn't mean to go off topic, just drawing parallels. Pity JH didn't take note of the fallout from BAL's CEO selling, or fudging confidence in the market, let alone whether forecasts prove to be too optimistic.

[bull....]

wow look at the short sales on the 4th must been ubs?

https://www.shortman.com.au/stock?q=A2M

[Muppett]

If it doesn't go below 10.12c, then I would say we are in a very very very slow uptrend from here. last 5 months lows...24/5/18=9.99c, 2/8/18=10.12c...and today....10.15c;)

And if it does go below $10.12?

[bull....]

nz / aus all at critical levels now , if it breaks ..... timber gap fill time

[see weed]

And if it does go below $10.12?

Don't know. The directors and CEO better do something positive before the next AGM or we might vote them out of a job. I nominate Beagle for next CEO and Muppett, bull and Baa Baa as Directors:D. ps Better add couta and winner to those positions also.

[steveb]

Don't know. The directors and CEO better do something positive before the next AGM or we might vote them out of a job. I nominate Beagle for next CEO and Muppett, bull and Baa Baa as Directors:D. ps Better add couta and winner to those positions also.
Can't be beagle he did a jayne and sold out last week!

[Muppett]

Can't be beagle he did a jayne and sold out last week!

If I was on the Board I would initiate a coup and get rid of David Hearn.

[see weed]

Can't be beagle he did a jayne and sold out last week!
I think he might still have a few, anyway we could offer him some performance shares.

[minimoke]

I'm now wondering if I should sell and buy me some cryptocurrencies - they are looking more stable and reliable.

[steveb]

gold would be the way to go especially with the exchange rate.I must admit I do have some NTL shares!

[bull....]

I'm now wondering if I should sell and buy me some cryptocurrencies - they are looking more stable and reliable.

bitcoin is way less volitile now than a2 .. maybe they all moved into a2 those crazed traders who love volitilty lol

[Muppett]

Can the incompetent Jacinda Ardern help?
See wants to interfere with petrol at the pump price, maybe she can sort out the ridiculous price a2 milk is.

[couta1]

Can the incompetent Jacinda Ardern help?
See wants to interfere with petrol at the pump price, maybe she can sort out the ridiculous price a2 milk is. On a horrid day like this don't get me started on Taxcinda, she raves on about how the price is hurting the public and sets up another enquiry group, if she really wants to help people immediately just remove some of that Troughing excise tax, it ain't rocket science dear.

[gbogo]

On a horrid day like this don't get me started on Taxcinda, she raves on about how the price is hurting the public and sets up another enquiry group, if she really wants to help people immediately just remove some of that Troughing excise tax, it ain't rocket science dear.

so a few more people can live in cars?? she's right - the oil and petrol companies are the ones that are troughing.. and excise tax should be 3x what it currently is for fossil fuels. (sorry to divert the conversation, but you started it..) and don't make it worse by patronising her either. It's 2018 dear boy.

Meanwhile, A2M falls off the cliff.

[couta1]

so a few more people can live in cars?? she's right - the oil and petrol companies are the ones that are troughing.. and excise tax should be 3x what it currently is for fossil fuels. (sorry to divert the conversation, but you started it..) and don't make it worse by patronising her either. It's 2018 dear boy.

Meanwhile, A2M falls off the cliff. We will agree to disagree and this is a Nation of free speech by the way and i hate all the PC crap. PS-The market is falling off a cliff not just A2.

[Muppett]

On a horrid day like this don't get me started on Taxcinda, she raves on about how the price is hurting the public and sets up another enquiry group, if she really wants to help people immediately just remove some of that Troughing excise tax, it ain't rocket science dear.

How stupid of me, I should have mentioned Richie McCaw.
I forgot all about him.
He can surely sort out JA and JH. He was once a hero, now is the time to stand up once more.
He can helicopter in a2 milk to kids throughout NZ under the Fonterra milk for schools programme.

[Muppett]

so a few more people can live in cars?? she's right - the oil and petrol companies are the ones that are troughing.. and excise tax should be 3x what it currently is for fossil fuels. (sorry to divert the conversation, but you started it..) and don't make it worse by patronising her either. It's 2018 dear boy.

Meanwhile, A2M falls off the cliff.

Are you a shorter, trader or investor?

[percy]

On a horrid day like this don't get me started on Taxcinda, she raves on about how the price is hurting the public and sets up another enquiry group, if she really wants to help people immediately just remove some of that Troughing excise tax, it ain't rocket science dear.

Her sounding off reminds me of Rob Muldoon..!
A lot of noise.

[couta1]

Are you a shorter, trader or investor? He/Her stated in their previous post that they had had a terrible year with A2 so could be any one of those three.Lol

[IAK]

A2 Millk hits out at reaction to share sales, new rules. http://nzh.tw/12139641

[Baa_Baa]

Almost perfect Triple bottom held, significant for today. It's all about tomorrow. For the meantime anyway.

[flyer]

At least they have released a statement - maybe was enough to share price back up tomorrow.

[dobby41]

At least they have released a statement - maybe was enough to share price back up tomorrow.

Seems to me that they may have been having a nap.
They should have been all over this with announcements ages ago - hopefully they have learnt a lesson.

[minimoke]

Seems to me that they may have been having a nap.
They should have been all over this with announcements ages ago - hopefully they have learnt a lesson.Not a hard lesson. Synlait did a good job with M Bovis and their building evacuation. Just little things like that help the market feel like it is being informed. What do they say "markets abhor a vacuum" if no information the market will make up its own

[Bjauck]

On a horrid day like this don't get me started on Taxcinda, she raves on about how the price is hurting the public and sets up another enquiry group, if she really wants to help people immediately just remove some of that Troughing excise tax, it ain't rocket science dear.
She should keep and boost fuel excise as well as introduce tax free breaks for low income earners and remove GST from foods - that would help struggling families afford a2 milk as well as other foods.

[777]

Removing GST from foods will never happen. Once exemptions start then it destroys the the simpleness of the tax.

Struggling families already have tax concessions to cover this.

[Bjauck]

Removing GST from foods will never happen. Once exemptions start then it destroys the the simpleness of the tax.

Struggling families already have tax concessions to cover this. Simple but a blunt instrument? Sufficient concessions? However some poverty actions groups agree that removing gst from fresh foods will help the wealthier rather than the poor as with or without gst they still could not afford much fruit and veggies. Welcome to C21st NZ.

[davflaws]

Welcome to C21st NZ.

I think that looking for evidence of a "well developed social conscience" on a sharetrader forum is a tad overoptimistic.

[Redmack]

Not a hard lesson. Synlait did a good job with M Bovis and their building evacuation. Just little things like that help the market feel like it is being informed. What do they say "markets abhor a vacuum" if no information the market will make up its own

Well said Minimoke
A2 has shown an arrogance or naivety that surprises. The Herald on page B5 today has CE Peter Nathan hitting out at shareholders having a significant over-reaction to Jayne's share sale. With that statement, the shareholders reaction is the right one. Peter cannot expect shareholders to accept all actions by the management to be beyond reproof. The people/shareholders hold the power ultimately.

Here is the link for the Herald article:
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12139641

[nzsharetrade]

is there any reason why ATM needs to list on OZ market? it seems SP will go up without them.

[44wishlists]

is there any reason why ATM needs to list on OZ market? it seems SP will go up without them.

The company would never be at its size without the capital from the Aussie market

[Balance]

The company would never be at its size without the capital from the Aussie market

Soon ATM will decamp to ASX, as Xero, Lion Nathan, Nuplex, Nufarm etc have done.

[nzsharetrade]

The company would never be at its size without the capital from the Aussie market

sure. I mean you dont need to list there to be able to get their capital, isn't? just like kiwi still trade XRO.

[Redmack]

sure. I mean you dont need to list there to be able to get their capital, isn't? just like kiwi still trade XRO.

One factor maybe that people prefer to trade on their own exhange in the first instance and avoid the exchange rate issues. As a percentage game for punters wanting to play in their own market Aust has the bigger % and therefore capital.

[moka]

We will agree to disagree and this is a Nation of free speech by the way and i hate all the PC crap. PS-The market is falling off a cliff not just A2.

Free speech comes with responsibilities. New Zealand is third in the world for cyberbullying which is nothing to be proud of.
Just this week I heard of two schoolgirls in my community who committed suicide this year because of cyberbullying. In one case the bullies were blocked but they made the effort to set up a false account to continue the bullying which had tragic consequences for the girl.
It is hard for schools and parents to convince children that cyberbullying is not okay when there are adults who see nothing wrong with making repeated targeted personal insults online. Children copy what they see. Cyberbullies lack empathy. Most kids who cyberbully believe it isn’t a big deal. Because they do not see the pain that they cause, they feel little to no remorse for their actions.

http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/CU1808/S00287/cyberbullying-in-nz-third-highest-in-world.htm
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12139665
The cost of cyberbulling in New Zealand is costing individuals, communities and support organisations $444 million a year, a new report reveals. But it's friends and families who are bearing the brunt of the cost - $366 million in fact - to support loved ones who have been bullied online.

[steveb]

Free speech comes with responsibilities. New Zealand is third in the world for cyberbullying which is nothing to be proud of.
Just this week I heard of two schoolgirls in my community who committed suicide this year because of cyberbullying. In one case the bullies were blocked but they made the effort to set up a false account to continue the bullying which had tragic consequences for the girl.
It is hard for schools and parents to convince children that cyberbullying is not okay when there are adults who see nothing wrong with making repeated targeted personal insults online. Children copy what they see. Cyberbullies lack empathy. Most kids who cyberbully believe it isn’t a big deal. Because they do not see the pain that they cause, they feel little to no remorse for their actions.

http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/CU1808/S00287/cyberbullying-in-nz-third-highest-in-world.htm
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12139665
The cost of cyberbulling in New Zealand is costing individuals, communities and support organisations $444 million a year, a new report reveals. But it's friends and families who are bearing the brunt of the cost - $366 million in fact - to support loved ones who have been bullied online.

What on earth has this got to do with ATM!!!!!

[davflaws]

What on earth has this got to do with ATM!!!!!

Not much specifically, but when people see a sea of red and are hurting (and ATM is a prime example), "Free Speech" on a forum like this tends to get personalised and things get posted that IMO are not conducive to having the sort of society that I want to live in. That has happened on this thread and I would rather it didn't.

[Bjauck]

Soon ATM will decamp to ASX, as Xero, Lion Nathan, Nuplex, Nufarm etc have done.You may be right - that route is a well trod path.

Michael Hill too...their stated reason was to access capital. Kiwis with money have made so much by borrowing and leveraging profits by investing in residential land - nowt much left over to provide capital to keep the companies in NZ?

[bull....]

gap fill day today?

[bull....]

10051


thats what they told me , anyway shorts hit a new high yesterday

https://www.shortman.com.au/stock?q=A2M

[nzsharetrade]

Dow is down 800 points. hang on!

[Muppett]

gap fill day today?

Why is that?

[ohpark0119]

Dow is down 800 points. hang on!

Good time to catch some falling knives??

[minimoke]

Dow is down 800 points. hang on!We are in for another very ugly day. Now its a matter of picking up some bargains.

[Bjauck]

I think that looking for evidence of a "well developed social conscience" on a sharetrader forum is a tad overoptimistic.
I disagree. I think many here apply their moral and ethical compass to greater or lesser extents to their invesments. For example, some posters have expressed opposition against investing in SKC for moral reasons.

From a2 milk’s point of view their could be an argument that tax cuts for the already “wealthy” could actually boost its sales (If A2 milk is more likely to be bought by middle class consumers.)

I happen to believe that a boost to the welfare state is also good for business if it means that welfare is spent on consumer items as opposed to tax cuts ending up being channelled into inflating the price of land (to simplify.) However some fundamentalists may think an over-generous welfare state may engender sloth (one of the seven deadly sins.)

[Muppett]

Good time to catch some falling knives??

How many are you going to buy and at what price?

[ohpark0119]

How many are you going to buy and at what price?

Too poor to buy and won’t buy if i had money 😭

[Muppett]

Too poor to buy and won’t buy if i had money 

If you wouldn't buy if you had the money, why then say its a: "Good time to catch some falling knives"?

[nzsharetrade]

We are in for another very ugly day. Now its a matter of picking up some bargains.

why i feel this just started. we all should thank for the new CEO's heads up.

[Muppett]

why i feel this just started. we all should thank for the new CEO's heads up.

I hate to admit it but G.I. Jayne must have known something was remiss.
Wish I had followed her and sold when she did.

[minimoke]

I hate to admit it but G.I. Jayne must have known something was remiss.
Wish I had followed her and sold when she did.
Aye, shes a clever one is that Jayne.

[winner69]

Aye, shes a clever one is that Jayne.

Does Jayne watch CNBC then

[Muppett]

Aye, shes a clever one is that Jayne.

I think so. She knew.
She and the Directors know whats really going on.
A couple of days ago I thought Peter Nathan's comments were a bit lightweight. But I was hoping to be proven wrong.
It hasn't helped one bit.

[nzsharetrade]

I hate to admit it but G.I. Jayne must have known something was remiss.
Wish I had followed her and sold when she did.

No No, you should follow Beagle (https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/member.php?9831-Beagle) :D

[Muppett]

No No, you should follow Beagle (https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/member.php?9831-Beagle):D

Please remind me, what is Beagle doing?

[Beagle]

I sold down at $12.67 some time back, again at $11.90 more recently and cleaned all the rest out last week for $10.40.
I topped up last week in Synlait at $10.24 and am busy licking my wounds from that.

[minimoke]

All I can say is Stop Losses. I had a plan and failed to implement. Any losses solely on my shoulders now. (still have head above water at the moment!)

[see weed]

I sold down at $12.67 some time back, again at $11.90 more recently and cleaned all the rest out last week for $10.40.
I topped up last week in Synlait at $10.24 and am busy licking my wounds from that.
I am the other way, just bought some at 9.71

[Muppett]

SP currently $9.70.
That guy who said the gap needs to be filled at $9.50 not too silly after all???

This stock should be about $8.75, maybe less?
That's the SP just before the "creeping up" before the Feb announcement and the Fonterra effect.

[Beagle]

Started the year at $8.07...maybe with herdlicker and all the uncertainty over ecommerce channels and the loss of well respected Geoff Babbage it deserves to go back to where it was ?

[Muppett]

Started the year at $8.07...maybe with herdlicker and all the uncertainty over ecommerce channels and the loss of well respected Geoff Babbage it deserves to go back to where it was ?

It is a bad day all round, every stock in my watch list is a red arrow, except the warehouse! Odd considering their colour.

Might be best if ATM lists on the ASX and gets a realistic SP.

[see weed]

SP currently $9.70.
That guy who said the gap needs to be filled at $9.50 not too silly after all???

This stock should be about $8.75, maybe less?
That's the SP just before the "creeping up" before the Feb announcement and the Fonterra effect.
I got an order for 9.66, see how it goes.

[RupertBear]

I am the other way, just bought some at 9.71

Just did the same...;)

[Muppett]

I am the other way, just bought some at 9.71

Why did you buy at $9.71 and $9.66?
Is there upside?

[whatsup]

Margin calls in Aussie will be coming thick and fast ATM, until all of these are out of the market Im staying clear, 15 minutes before the Aussie opening will tell all !

[Muppett]

9.66 hasn't gone yet , there is always upside with a2. So here kitty kitty come and get me, or is it cowy cowy:).

Its had a low of $9.65, you must be close, maybe you'll get it when the robots and the ASX open.

Someone on here said if it breaks down past the $10.12 it will be a very, very slow climb back up to future highs.
I'm still predicting a RIMM share price graph.

[Raz]

Margin calls in Aussie will be coming thick and fast ATM, until all of these are out of the market Im staying clear, 15 minutes before the Aussie opening will tell all !

Well said, see where it goes there first before acting....

[Southern_Belle]

Well said, see where it goes there first before acting....Holder & sitting tight. I was Xero holder during the big slide & sold,it slid some more & I felt justified. BUT I had cash sitting in the bank and spent a chunk (I learned a lot about my financial personality type). Now look at Xero share price on the ASX. Lesson learned.

[whatsup]

Holder & sitting tight. I was Xero holder during the big slide & sold,it slid some more & I felt justified. BUT I had cash sitting in the bank and spent a chunk (I learned a lot about my financial personality type). Now look at Xero share price on the ASX. Lesson learned.

XRO may also be hit today, nothing is immune in this market, margin calls destroy many pricing levels .

[RupertBear]

XRO may also be hit today, nothing is immune in this market, margin calls destroy many pricing levels .

I am quietly hoping XRO will be hit as I would like a few more ;)

[Southern_Belle]

XRO may also be hit today, nothing is immune in this market, margin calls destroy many pricing levels .(Un) Fortunately I never did buy back into Xero. Thinking of all of you during the volatility, whatever your positions and choices, you can learn a lot.

[see weed]

Well said, see where it goes there first before acting....
a2 on ASX is too fast for me, by the time you put an order in it has moved 5 or 10c.

[whatsup]

Margin calls in Aussie will be coming thick and fast ATM, until all of these are out of the market Im staying clear, 15 minutes before the Aussie opening will tell all !

There you go Aussie market makers calling the shots now back down below the current level.

[Sideshow Bob]

This is the answer to my email to A2 milk re CEO sale of shares:



Thank you for your email and interest in The a2 Milk Company, your comments have been noted.

Although we cannot comment specifically on Jayne’s personal financial situation, we would take this opportunity to provide you with the following information with respect to Jayne’s remuneration package and recent share sale:



Jayne’s remuneration package included one-off transitional entitlements compensating her for entitlements from her previous employer that were forfeited when she agreed to join The a2 Milk Company. These one-off transitional entitlements included a mix of cash and equity interests in The a2 Milk Company.
The transition entitlements (in The a2 Milk Company) were structured to replace the entitlements (in her previous employer) that Jayne forfeited when she agreed to join The a2 Milk Company. The equity entitlements in The a2 Milk Company that have vested replaced the equity entitlements in her former employer that would have vested at the same time had Jayne not left that business to join The a2 Milk Company
Jayne sold the shares that she received on vesting to fund tax obligations relating to the automatic exercise of her equity entitlements in The a2 Milk Company and other commitments that she entered into before agreeing to join the company. We can confirm that Jayne entered into the relevant commitments well in advance of her agreeing to join The a2 Milk Company and in the knowledge that she had a future entitlement to receive the benefit of equity interests from her previous employer (that she subsequently forfeited when she joined The a2 Milk Company)
Jayne’s ongoing remuneration package (specifically her LTI component) has been structured to ensure Jayne will continue to hold a significant equity interest in the Company moving forward


We wish to confirm that the Company has heard the concerns raised by shareholders and that these concerns have been shared directly with Jayne and the rest of the Board.

The Company understands and takes seriously its continuous disclosure obligations.

We are grateful for shareholders’ support of and interest in the Company.

Kind Regards

[peat]

...
We wish to confirm that the Company has heard the concerns raised by shareholders and that these concerns have been shared directly with Jayne and the rest of the Board.


Yadda yadda.
The company really is in a hole over this. They cant chastise her publicly because they agreed to it all happening beforehand so they are just as culpable.
The bottom line is she doesnt think her company is that good an investment
Cant blame her as a person for maximising her wealth, but can blame her as CEO A2.

[bull....]

her timing was impeccable

[Sideshow Bob]

Very much a copy & paste response - and no signing of any name at the end of the email, which I find poor.

[minimoke]

Very much a copy & paste response - and no signing of any name at the end of the email, which I find poor.I got the name, and phone number when I enquired of Synlait. Seems ATM has a bit of learning ahead.

[see weed]

So a2 paid for Jet stars remuneration package to JH. Why didn't a2 wait until she had finished her time with JS, then take her on as CEO after her remuneration package?:t_down:.

[couta1]

So a2 paid for Jet stars remuneration package to JH. Why didn't a2 wait until she had finished her time with JS, then take her on as CEO after her remuneration package?:t_down:. The 4 million dollar question is why on earth did they appoint her to the role full stop, as I've said before square peg versus round hole.

[Ted2]

This is the answer to my email to A2 milk re CEO sale of shares:



Thank you for your email and interest in The a2 Milk Company, your comments have been noted.

Although we cannot comment specifically on Jayne’s personal financial situation, we would take this opportunity to provide you with the following information with respect to Jayne’s remuneration package and recent share sale:



Jayne’s remuneration package included one-off transitional entitlements compensating her for entitlements from her previous employer that were forfeited when she agreed to join The a2 Milk Company. These one-off transitional entitlements included a mix of cash and equity interests in The a2 Milk Company.
The transition entitlements (in The a2 Milk Company) were structured to replace the entitlements (in her previous employer) that Jayne forfeited when she agreed to join The a2 Milk Company. The equity entitlements in The a2 Milk Company that have vested replaced the equity entitlements in her former employer that would have vested at the same time had Jayne not left that business to join The a2 Milk Company
Jayne sold the shares that she received on vesting to fund tax obligations relating to the automatic exercise of her equity entitlements in The a2 Milk Company and other commitments that she entered into before agreeing to join the company. We can confirm that Jayne entered into the relevant commitments well in advance of her agreeing to join The a2 Milk Company and in the knowledge that she had a future entitlement to receive the benefit of equity interests from her previous employer (that she subsequently forfeited when she joined The a2 Milk Company)
Jayne’s ongoing remuneration package (specifically her LTI component) has been structured to ensure Jayne will continue to hold a significant equity interest in the Company moving forward


We wish to confirm that the Company has heard the concerns raised by shareholders and that these concerns have been shared directly with Jayne and the rest of the Board.

The Company understands and takes seriously its continuous disclosure obligations.

We are grateful for shareholders’ support of and interest in the Company.

Kind Regards


Dear Kind Regards

Did anyone on the board that offered this lady the job stop to think that a brand new CEO selling ALL of her shares within months of joining A2 would not be a good look? If not then why not? And if not, have any board members thought of resigning because of this lack of insight?

Did anyone on same board that offered this person the job not think that paying her in cash would have been a wiser decision? If not then why not? And if not, have any board members thought of resigning due to this lack of foresight decision?

Does everyone on the board think that the statement - 'Jayne...... holding a significant amount of equity moving forward' IE. MORE FREE SHARES THAT SHE'S BEEN GIVEN, is a satisfactory answer that would appease shareholders? If so, then have any of these said board members bothered to listen to shareholder opinion on this sell-off? If not, then have they thought to resign because of this inaction?

Has any board member thought to try and entice Geoff Babidge back into the fold with a few more million shares to get things back on track and give shareholders some confidence back? If not then do you ever take note of shareholder opinion?

If the answers to the above are all no's, then do you realise that a shareholder vote would see you all removed en masse - with immediate effect?

Regards


Yours

[steveb]

I guess it comes down to how long was left on her contract,and how was her remuneration contract with jetheap negotiated,if it was performance based was she ahead of the game and on track to recieve her full entitlements.She might have been running out of customers to shaft at jetheap,or she could have been doing really well,I guess we will never find out

[Redmack]

The 4 million dollar question is why on earth did they appoint her to the role full stop, as I've said before square peg versus round hole.

Maybe JH was the smarter, more aggresive negotiator at the recruitment table. If so, can ATM afford to have such a strong negotiator with such strong self interest?

I have seen several times in the last few years where very strong negotiators have joined a business and procceded to strip all the value they can get while talking the talk.

As shareholders, the question may well be: has the company got too big for the current boards experience?

[Baa_Baa]

Dear Yours

Yeah nah.

Yeah nah.

Yeah nah.

Yeah nah.

Shareholders are revolting, yeah nah.

Regards

[Sideshow Bob]

Yeah nah.

Yeah nah.

Yeah nah.

Yeah nah.

Shareholders are revolting, yeah nah.

Regards

Yes us shareholders are revolting! :scared:

[Muppett]

Yes us shareholders are revolting! :scared:

If the shareholders are revolting, who is buying?

[gbogo]

gap filled, i think. funny how they work sometimes.

[777]

Current people following this thread at the present time. I wonder who the 34 are. Hope 3 or 4 of them are board members.

(14 members and 34 guests)

[sb9]

Good opportunity for company to implement a part of their share buy back programme they've been contemplating for a while.

[bull....]

total carnage on this pup , shorts getting well rewarded

[Xerof]

Yes us shareholders are revolting! :scared:

I don't think you guys are THAT bad :t_up:

[minimoke]

Good opportunity for company to implement a part of their share buy back programme they've been contemplating for a while.And a bit more of SML

[Saffer]

Maybe the CEO will buy back her shares at $9.00 and make a pretty penny.

[Muppett]

The Depth screen at the moment is showing a buyer at $1.16.
See weed will be ecstatic.
Maybe $8 tomorrow and heading South?
10055

[ohpark0119]

I saw someone mention $7.50. That seems pretty realistic. I’ll top up more then.

- bought at 13.25 and holding...

[Muppett]

I saw someone mention $7.50. That seems pretty realistic. I’ll top up more then.

- bought at 13.25 and holding...

Hopefully it hits $7.50, but $8.70 more realistic.
Maybe an up day soon before heading further South.
I'll top up at $8.50-$8.70.

[see weed]

Wonder how far down it goes before instos etc will start buying in or even a take over offer from a Chinese company. Good buying opp. at next turn. Where next turn?

[Muppett]

Wonder how far down it goes before instos etc will start buying in or even a take over offer from a Chinese company. Good buying opp. at next turn. Where next turn?

Who do you think were the buyers today?

[RupertBear]

Who do you think were the buyers today?

Unfortunately the impulsive Bear was one of the knife catcher. I fear tomorrow will be even worse :(

[couta1]

total carnage on this pup , shorts getting well rewarded Shorts will be incinerated in due course like they were in February.

[Beagle]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mVmywa9K6C8 Not a beagle and my carnage is limited to ATM's effect on Synlait but unlike this dog I am not loving it.
Wonder if that dog feels like he knows about herdlicker :lol:

[King1212]

Ouchhh..is all I can say...

[see weed]

Who do you think were the buyers today?

Me and others.

[Baa_Baa]

Nestle set to launch A2 formula in New Zealand and Australia

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12140866

Perfect timing on a massive down day. Ruthless

[Snow Leopard]

Nestle set to launch A2 formula in New Zealand and Australia

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12140866

Perfect timing on a massive down day. Ruthless

'Illuma Two Stage 3', 'NAN A2' & 'S-26 Atwo' ?

Why do they name they products after droids? :D :D

[nzsharetrade]

the A2 sourced from all places that except NZ. it makes perfect senses.......

[Beagle]

Nestle set to launch A2 formula in New Zealand and Australia

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12140866

Perfect timing on a massive down day. Ruthless

Should be good buying tomorrow if Wall St has another shocker. One wonders if Nestle are not trying to manipulate the price down as a prelude to a takeover attempt. That show growing behemoth could do with a fast growing extra subsidiary or two (SML).

[couta1]

Should be good buying tomorrow if Wall St has another shocker. One wonders if Nestle are not trying to manipulate the price down as a prelude to a takeover attempt. That show growing behemoth could do with a fast growing extra subsidiary or two (SML). They can have mine for the bargin basement price of $14.62 give or take a cent or two.

[Beagle]

They can have mine for the bargin basement price of $14.62 give or take a cent or two.

Yeah they can have my SML for that too mate. Aussie close was equal to ~ $9.11 Kiwi and they had more time to absorb the Nestle announcement and its impact on the milk twins here, (if any).
Volume was many times N.Z. market too. SML also closed at the same level in Aust.

[Leftfield]

Nestle set to launch A2 formula in New Zealand and Australia

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12140866

Perfect timing on a massive down day. Ruthless

Thanks for posting Baa Baa.... bad news end to a tough day for holders.

That said, the move is not entirely negative as IMO it adds credibility to A2's claims and expands the total market. For example, although Nestle has launched in China, ATM's share of that market has still grown from around 4% to just over 5% - if the latest reports are true.

In addition, the pricing of the Nestle offering will be interesting and it could erode some margins.

Hold on tight - more uncertainty tomorrow.

[Baa_Baa]

Should be good buying tomorrow if Wall St has another shocker. One wonders if Nestle are not trying to manipulate the price down as a prelude to a takeover attempt. That show growing behemoth could do with a fast growing extra subsidiary or two (SML).

Decent rally off the lows into the ASX close. But not convincing, probably just short covering. Who knows, but wouldn't it be fascinating if Nestle were positioning for a takeover. As A2M is well past it's 61.8% fib retrace, it does bring into play a distressed SP and corresponding Cap with hurting shareholders who may be open to an exit at some price point above market. Intriguing. With DOW looking like a follow on tomorrow, Markets could be rattled and open opportunities not previously thought about. The good thing about TA is not being involved in market or specific SP routs, moreover focusing on when it's time to re-engage.

[Beagle]

Decent rally off the lows into the ASX close. But not convincing, probably just short covering. Who knows, but wouldn't it be fascinating if Nestle were positioning for a takeover. As A2M is well past it's 61.8% fib retrace, it does bring into play a distressed SP and corresponding Cap with hurting shareholders who may be open to an exit at some price point above market. Intriguing. With DOW looking like a follow on tomorrow, Markets could be rattled and open opportunities not previously thought about. The good thing about TA is not being involved in market or specific SP routs, moreover focusing on when it's time to re-engage.

Dow futures pared their losses and now indicating down just 164 points. Gotta say I prefer Synlait at these level's for its clearly articulated and well defined growth path, more differentiated product mix and far more realistic forward PE of just 17.7 (average analyst forecast for FY19 is 51.5 cps) based on today's close of $9.10. They also own the approvals under which ATM distribute product in China and have the hardware with lots more coming on stream. Maybe Nestle makes a move on both ?
I think if Synlait get one more big king hit down I might be compelled to take a long term view and put my hand up for more, after all ATM paid ~ 20% more than today's closing price for its last 8% stake acquisition in Synlait acquired at $10.90 so with SML there's even more odds of a takeover.

[carrom74]

Just last week morning star said “accumulate” with a fair value rating of $14.60.. Gulp..

[couta1]

Just last week morning star said “accumulate” with a fair value rating of $14.60.. Gulp.. Was probably the biggest sell indicator of them all.

[minimoke]

Nestle set to launch A2 formula in New Zealand and Australia

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12140866

Perfect timing on a massive down day. RuthlessNZ market is only small fry - and SML have the cheese making factory now.

[Balance]

NZ market is only small fry - and SML have the cheese making factory now.

Nestle probably finding that its A2 milk products not selling in China unless they sell in NZ - that's been how the China market operates or a long time with infant formula since the Sanlu scandal.

[hogie]

Nestle probably finding that its A2 milk products not selling in China unless they sell in NZ - that's been how the China market operates or a long time with infant formula since the Sanlu scandal.

Had a buy in for some more ATM but cancelled last night after seeing the Nestle news ... will need to try to find "reasonable value" for this stock.

[minimoke]

Had a buy in for some more ATM but cancelled last night after seeing the Nestle news ... will need to try to find "reasonable value" for this stock.Consider that Nestle may be dumping stock in Au and NZ if unable to sell at higher margins in China. Also free promotion of the "a2" concept - though I cant figure out who the target market for a bottle of "S-26 Atwo" is aimed at

[sb9]

Nestle probably finding that its A2 milk products not selling in China unless they sell in NZ - that's been how the China market operates or a long time with infant formula since the Sanlu scandal.

Ahhh...Nestle, they keep trying, don't they? What an opportunistic timing as well along with help from great NZ Herald.

[Muppett]

See weed........ more buying opportunity for you today.
You could pick up plenty more shares at bargain basement prices.

Anybody else buying today?

[Yoda]

US markets all down, i think a2 is in for another hammering today. Hardly any buyers to sell to at the mo. Going down another 5%???

[Muppett]

US markets all down, i think a2 is in for another hammering today. Hardly any buyers to sell to at the mo. Going down another 5%???

10%, should end up at about $8

So far, so good, only 2.3% down on opening.

[longy]

See weed........ more buying opportunity for you today.
You could pick up plenty more shares at bargain basement prices.

Anybody else buying today?

I bought some yesterday...um... may see how it goes today though.

[trader_jackson]

I remember when it was disclosed the DD had sold a few (far from a majority) of his PEB shares in the mid $1's back in the glory days for a what I think wasn't even a hundred thousand (to build a deck if I recall correctly?) it was meet with swift and intense criticism on the forum.

But "this time is different" so no worries.

Down over $3 since posting this less than 3 weeks ago ... maybe this wasn't so "this time is different" after all
Now up just single digits for the year... what was NZX's best performer is fast turning into barely any performance at all.
Good to see it is being valued a bit more fairly now rather than the lofty mid teens, they'll still milk it long term.

[minimoke]

Oh look. ATM and SML back to parity at $8.76 each

[Beagle]

Was probably the biggest sell indicator of them all.

Yes indeed it was. Amateur hour at the OK Corral. When the shoeshine boy (AKA Morningstar) say HIGH CONVICTION BUY, its time to get out quickly so I did exactly that.

[nzsharetrade]

people are waiting for positive news in AGM but what could that be? ATM will blame the market.... the cap is looking at 5B.

[Balance]

10%, should end up at about $8

So far, so good, only 2.3% down on opening.

ATM sp driven out of Australia.

Shortcovering expected today so sp goes up - good time to sell if you were thinking of selling.

[Sideshow Bob]

people are waiting for positive news in AGM but what could that be?

Those responsible for Jayne's share sale fall on their swords......

[Muppett]

Those responsible for Jayne's share sale fall on their swords......

The Chairman David Hearn will probably get the flick.
He had a 24% vote against him been re-elected at the last AGM.
The guy is crap.

[steveb]

now up 46c looks like balance is correct shorters covering their positions or perhaps something else........

[longy]

OMG.. It is green on NZX at the open on ASX.

[minimoke]

OMG.. It is green on NZX at the open on ASX.Hurray - i'm off to find the shirt that was stripped off my back yesterday

[Baa_Baa]

now up 46c looks like balance is correct shorters covering their positions or perhaps something else........

Short covering, setup a bull trap. Rinse and repeat. Look at it go!

[couta1]

ATM sp driven out of Australia.

Shortcovering expected today so sp goes up - good time to sell if you were thinking of selling. Good time to sell if you can make a profit otherwise not.PS-Could easily keep rising next week if the US turns green tonight.

[Leftfield]

Good time to sell if you can make a profit otherwise not.PS-Could easily keep rising next week if the US turns green tonight.

Still holding...... holding for concrete news rather than emotions.

(ATM 60% of my portfolio, so my 'unrealised gains' have taken a hit, but overall I'm still in the green.:t_up: and have been sneakily buying into your OCA theories. Well positioned?? Time will tell.)

[couta1]

Still holding...... holding for concrete news rather than emotions.

(ATM 60% of my portfolio, so my 'unrealised gains' have taken a hit, but overall I'm still in the green.:t_up: and have been sneakily buying into your OCA theories. Well positioned?? Time will tell.) A2 still has a great future ahead of it despite the shenanigans of late, I love that portfolio %.PS-OCA will give you an excellent return over the next few years although it won't be anywhere near as exhilarating as A2 has been just slow and steady with a divvy to boot.

[nzsharetrade]

What sort of patents right does ATM have? I thought just the testing part. Nestle got the A2 label everywhere, A2 should be a registered trademark and covered by patents, isn't it?

[Ggcc]

Hurray - i'm off to find the shirt that was stripped off my back yesterday
You’re quite the character haha. I hope this upward wind continues, but I have doubts due to volatility

[see weed]

See weed........ more buying opportunity for you today.
You could pick up plenty more shares at bargain basement prices.

Anybody else buying today?
I got my full of a2 at this time. Am thinking of diversifying, but will keep the rest at this stage.

[nocomment]

hopefully its not a bear market trap

[blackcap]

hopefully its not a bear market trap

Well Dow Futures up by 306 as I type so at the moment she is looking all rosy.

[mikeybycrikey]

I've just started seeing A2 Milk ads on the television in NZ. I just wonder if they are going about it all wrong. It feels like they are advertising it like Coke: a lifestyle, and an emotion. However I feel like they need to be running educational ads rather than brand ads.

I'm probably not their target market, but I feel like most uneducated consumers wouldn't be any wiser about what A2 milk is after seeing the ad.

Makes me wonder if they have any idea what they are doing or if I'm the one out of touch. They have been growing sales well so evidence suggests they know what they are doing.

I think this is the ad here: https://player.vimeo.com/video/292239215

[minimoke]

I've just started seeing A2 Milk ads on the television in NZ. I just wonder if they are going about it all wrong. It feels like they are advertising it like Coke: a lifestyle, and an emotion. However I feel like they need to be running educational ads rather than brand ads.

I'm probably not their target market, but I feel like most uneducated consumers wouldn't be any wiser about what A2 milk is after seeing the ad.

Makes me wonder if they have any idea what they are doing or if I'm the one out of touch. They have been growing sales well so evidence suggests they know what they are doing.

I think this is the ad here: https://player.vimeo.com/video/292239215A1 "intolerant" people dont feel good. And pregnant women want the very best for their baby and toddler. Ad seems fine to me.

[Balance]

Well Dow Futures up by 306 as I type so at the moment she is looking all rosy.

Short coverings over.

New trading range being set - looking like $9.25 to $9.75 to me

[steveb]

It is for Anchor milk not ATM not that it makes much difference it,s still getting the product off the shelf.

Anchor are still using the ATM catch phrase " Feel the difference" so it looks like a joint marketing ad,would be interesting to find out if ATM contributed.
https://thea2milkcompany.com/about-us/

[silu]

I've just started seeing A2 Milk ads on the television in NZ. I just wonder if they are going about it all wrong. It feels like they are advertising it like Coke: a lifestyle, and an emotion. However I feel like they need to be running educational ads rather than brand ads.

I'm probably not their target market, but I feel like most uneducated consumers wouldn't be any wiser about what A2 milk is after seeing the ad.

Makes me wonder if they have any idea what they are doing or if I'm the one out of touch. They have been growing sales well so evidence suggests they know what they are doing.

I think this is the ad here: https://player.vimeo.com/video/292239215

The skeptic in me thinks we live in "post fact" times because how else can one explain the anti-vaxxers? The only thing matters is how things feel rather than why things are. They follow ideals and "influencers" throwing bite-sized enter- and infotainment through their devices at them.

A2 probably knows they won't win the scientific battle so they go for the "feel good" and "only the best for my baby" factor. I don't have a problem with that.

[nizzy]

I've just started seeing A2 Milk ads on the television in NZ. I just wonder if they are going about it all wrong. It feels like they are advertising it like Coke: a lifestyle, and an emotion. However I feel like they need to be running educational ads rather than brand ads.
I'm probably not their target market, but I feel like most uneducated consumers wouldn't be any wiser about what A2 milk is after seeing the ad.
Makes me wonder if they have any idea what they are doing or if I'm the one out of touch. They have been growing sales well so evidence suggests they know what they are doing.
I think this is the ad here: https://player.vimeo.com/video/292239215

Like the new Ad. The tagline on the bottle "feel the difference" says it all.
You can't explain the science in 20 sec and you shouldn't anyway.
ATM"s success is all about emotion & lifestyle. Trust, safety, health for your family.
And on the negative, a mistrust of big food companies.

[couta1]

Short coverings over.

New trading range being set - looking like $9.25 to $9.75 to me Shorts will be doing plenty more coverings as we head toward the AGM.Lol

[Leftfield]

I've just started seeing A2 Milk ads on the television in NZ. I just wonder if they are going about it all wrong. It feels like they are advertising it like Coke: a lifestyle, and an emotion. However I feel like they need to be running educational ads rather than brand ads.......

I think this is the ad here: https://player.vimeo.com/video/292239215

Thanks for sharing this ad. Nice to see progress in NZ.

FWIW In my past life I was heavily involved with Milk promotion and advertising and I can assure you that all the research then and now supports milk advertising based more on feelings/emotions than facts.

Think of the emotions around mothers milk and that is what most effectively sells milk via TV.

Pictures of cows (put people off) and loads of facts about how good it is for you are much less effective and best left to magazine articles and the internet (where there is heaps of info' on the health benefits of A2.)

[t.rexjr]

I've just started seeing A2 Milk ads on the television in NZ. I just wonder if they are going about it all wrong. It feels like they are advertising it like Coke: a lifestyle, and an emotion. However I feel like they need to be running educational ads rather than brand ads.

I'm probably not their target market, but I feel like most uneducated consumers wouldn't be any wiser about what A2 milk is after seeing the ad.

Makes me wonder if they have any idea what they are doing or if I'm the one out of touch. They have been growing sales well so evidence suggests they know what they are doing.

I think this is the ad here: https://player.vimeo.com/video/292239215

Trying to market the something without casting any negative on you main product = sing a song and be happy but don't say a word...

[Blue Skies]

I've just started seeing A2 Milk ads on the television in NZ. I just wonder if they are going about it all wrong. It feels like they are advertising it like Coke: a lifestyle, and an emotion. However I feel like they need to be running educational ads rather than brand ads.

I'm probably not their target market, but I feel like most uneducated consumers wouldn't be any wiser about what A2 milk is after seeing the ad.

Makes me wonder if they have any idea what they are doing or if I'm the one out of touch. They have been growing sales well so evidence suggests they know what they are doing.

I think this is the ad here: https://player.vimeo.com/video/292239215

I agree, a forgettable waste of money. A2 milk has a real point of difference, health benefits which makes it stand out from it's competitors & justifies it's higher price. Why else pay a premium for it? I've seen so many half baked ideas from Ad agency creative types, (who've never had their own money on the line) selling the emotion, the feeling, general branding which needs acres of money spent on advertising to move product. There's no cut through, nothing memorable or informative or offering any benefits or point of difference about that. In fact I saw the ad on TV last night & didn't even register it as being for A2 milk. Pardon the rant :)

[44wishlists]

I agree, a forgettable waste of money. A2 milk has a real point of difference, health benefits which makes it stand out from it's competitors & justifies it's higher price. Why else pay a premium for it? I've seen so many half baked ideas from Ad agency creative types, (who've never had their own money on the line) selling the emotion, the feeling, general branding which needs acres of money spent on advertising to move product. There's no cut through, nothing memorable or informative or offering any benefits or point of difference about that. In fact I saw the ad on TV last night & didn't even register it as being for A2 milk. Pardon the rant :)

So are you expecting a presentation/documentation in 30 seconds?

[minimoke]

I agree, a forgettable waste of money. A2 milk has a real point of difference, health benefits which makes it stand out from it's competitors & justifies it's higher price. Why else pay a premium for it? I've seen so many half baked ideas from Ad agency creative types, (who've never had their own money on the line) selling the emotion, the feeling, general branding which needs acres of money spent on advertising to move product. There's no cut through, nothing memorable or informative or offering any benefits or point of difference about that. In fact I saw the ad on TV last night & didn't even register it as being for A2 milk. Pardon the rant :)You gotta realise its aimed at the Wealthy Worried - they will already be reasonably well informed.

[sb9]

In fact I saw the ad on TV last night & didn't even register it as being for A2 milk.

I think it aired during commercial break for Masterchef Aus show on TV1. Unlike you as soon the ad came on air I instantly thought that's the ad for A2 milk. Very nicely shot, love it.

[Muppett]

You gotta realise its aimed at the Wealthy Worried - they will already be reasonably well informed.

They will / are reasonably well informed, but who watches TV1 let alone TV these days?
"Everyone" I know is on Netflix, Lightbox, Neon, Soho, sport channels, ....
They must have done their research, so hopefully it works, as its very, very expensive milk.

[Muppett]

ATM sp driven out of Australia.

Shortcovering expected today so sp goes up - good time to sell if you were thinking of selling.

Are you aware that:

Balance has exceeded their stored private messages quota and cannot accept further messages until they clear some space.


From the site administrator

[Blue Skies]

So are you expecting a presentation/documentation in 30 seconds?


Ha, no but that ad production would have cost a small fortune & since you ask what I would have done is approached a highly trusted, recognisable, newish mother like Toni Street or Valerie Adams to front a campaign explaining the important health benefits which differentiate A2 milk from it's cheap competitors. Of course the first thing someone will say is they might not be avail, but that's the general idea.
A well liked & trusted personality with the right fit provides instant cut through to the clutter of general branding ads on TV. Plus A2 has a real & significant point of difference to it's competitors, so why not use it?
I know shareholders know the difference because we have equity in the brand, but to the average hurried shopper grabbing some milk off the shelf on the way home, it's just another milk brand which at the expensive end of the range & as everybody knows "they're all the same aren't they?" :)

[Blue Skies]

One of the often unstated goals of general branding campaigns (apart from slowly building brand awareness) is to make staff & shareholders feel positive about the company & that's just what this feels like. That's nice but it doesn't have much effect on sales. At this stage I believe A2 should be going all out trying to get potential new customers to make a switch to A2 from their usual brand & for that to happen, & pay a much dearer price, they need to 1) grab their attention & 2) be given a good reason.

[BlackPeter]

What sort of patents right does ATM have? I thought just the testing part. Nestle got the A2 label everywhere, A2 should be a registered trademark and covered by patents, isn't it?

Nobody can patent a naturally occuring protein - even if it is called A2! Only man made things can be patented - as long as they are new (and previously unpublished).

A2 is as old as humans ... and cows

[winner69]

One of the often unstated goals of general branding campaigns (apart from slowly building brand awareness) is to make staff & shareholders feel positive about the company & that's just what this feels like. That's nice but it doesn't have much effect on sales.........

The Brand Manager and maybe the Marketing Manager will be wetting themselves after getting this warm fuzzy ad off the ground ....the best ad the world’s ever seen in their eyes. Give marketing too much money and this is what you get and a poor return on investment (except the agency (Colenso BBDO?) does more than OK from it). If they are lucky they might even mentioned in some ad magazines or win an award to give them even more warm fuzzies.

The campaign Anchor did last year to target teenagers and why milk was good for you was pretty cool. Have you seen these? They probably interested the targeted market and sold milk.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=WJfNqGkqrZs

https://vimeo.com/211257133

https://vimeo.com/211256359

[Blue Skies]

The Brand Manager and maybe the Marketing Manager will be wetting themselves after getting this warm fuzzy ad off the ground ....the best ad the world’s ever seen in their eyes. Give marketing too much money and this is what you get and a poor return on investment (except the agency (Colenso BBDO?) does more than OK from it). If they are lucky they might even mentioned in some ad magazines or win an award to give them even more warm fuzzies.

The campaign Anchor did last year to target teenagers and why milk was good for you was pretty cool. Have you seen these? They probably interested the targeted market and sold milk.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=WJfNqGkqrZs

https://vimeo.com/211257133

https://vimeo.com/211256359


Yes these are brilliant, very clever & cool ads which stand out from the clutter, speak directly to target market & explain health benefits of milk. Hit all the right notes for that tricky to reach teenage market. Harry Baker of course a very cool celeb poet & TED Talk speaker, loads of credibility & highly recognisable to that specific target market, youngest person to win the London, UK & World Slam Poetry competitions.

[minimoke]

Yes these are brilliant, very clever & cool ads which stand out from the clutter, speak directly to target market & explain health benefits of milk.strange eh. I don't watch ads but if I see one it has to grab me in a few seconds. I thought those ads were crap. long winded ( so no good for paid advertising), blah blah blah saying lots but very little. May be great for the youth demographic (I thought they had a shorter attention span than mine) but that's not Atm's market. It's the sore gut and babies not the shiny teeth (and some of those folks were not that flash) demographic.

[Investor]

It's clear that selling at $13 was a very very compelling option; given that at the time the share was overpriced. If you sold at $13 and found an actual bargain in the market to replace ATM with, you would be on the path to doing very well. ATM has experienced extreme growth and there are certainly lower risk shares that could produce similar or greater returns from here.

Sigh..........

[minimoke]

Sigh..........You failed to mention the similar or greater return stocks.

[Investor]

You failed to mention the similar or greater return stocks.

At the time of that post, it was very clear to me, having reading this thread for a while, that nearly everyone posting in it was making emotional decisions on their holding in ATM. What has occurred since is a shame, but I did try.

I could offer alternatives but what does that have to do with the point that ATM was heavily overpriced? Literally anything other than holding ATM at $13 would of been a starting point.

[mikeybycrikey]

So are you expecting a presentation/documentation in 30 seconds?

I think it's a perfectly fine ad, but only if the viewer already knows what A2 milk is. If mums are already talking about it with other mums then this ad works.

But to a naive viewer who has never heard of A2, it's basically just an ad for milk.

At least that's how I see it.

[Ggcc]

I think it's a perfectly fine ad, but only if the viewer already knows what A2 milk is. If mums are already talking about it with other mums then this ad works.

But to a naive viewer who has never heard of A2, it's basically just an ad for milk.

At least that's how I see it.
The one major thing I remembered from the ad. It showed “feel the difference” not “taste the difference”.

I must say since the ads, our local supermarket is show casing a few more on the shelf.

[whome]

Cos There is no difference in taste. Look for PR articles discussing ‘digestives upsets’ which is the target market for A2 and that is where people will be asked to ‘feel the difference’.

[longy]

Cos There is no difference in taste. Look for PR articles discussing ‘digestives upsets’ which is the target market for A2 and that is where people will be asked to ‘feel the difference’.

I preferred the taste of A2 over other brand given I never grew up with much of fresh milk around. I don't drink enough to feel the difference but surely taste better in my Tea and Coffee...

BTW UBS is back on as substantial holder as of the 10/10/18 to 5.35%

[minimoke]

I preferred the taste of A2 over other brand given I never grew up with much of fresh milk around. I don't drink enough to feel the difference but surely taste better in my Tea and Coffee...
You wont "feel the difference" unless your gastrointestinal system is affected by the A1 proteins - something reported by many Chinese and Asians. And you're not (presumably) a new Mum, or mum-to-be, worried about the health of your child who you don't want to be lactose intolerant.

"In conclusion, this study showed that consumption of milk containing A2 β-casein attenuated the acute gastrointestinal symptoms following milk intake relative to conventional milk containing A1 and A2 β-casein in Chinese subjects with self-reported lactose intolerance. Gastrointestinal symptoms after consuming milk containing A2 β-casein were consistently reduced in both lactose absorbers and lactose malabsorbers. These findings suggest that, in some individuals with self-reported lactose intolerance, the adverse gastrointestinal symptoms following milk intake might be related to the presence of A1 β-casein in milk rather than lactose itself." (read more here https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5657040/)

[Beagle]

All marketing involves various degree's of creative license mm. Take Mercedes-Benz as a classic example "The Best or Nothing" Many would argue they are in no way the best and of course there's a wide range of alternatives. They're simply appealing to a certain demographic who have a need for their ego to be stroked along similar lines to ATM that are appealing to those that have a digestion problem or their babies do, or think they might have one.

[minimoke]

All marketing involves various degree's of creative license mm. Take Mercedes-Benz as a classic example "The Best or Nothing" Many would argue they are in no way the best and of course there's a wide range of alternatives. They're simply appealing to a certain demographic who have a need for their ego to be stroked along similar lines to ATM that are appealing to those that have a digestion problem or their babies do, or think they might have one.
I reckon that advert is aimed at the "moneyed" demographic. Its simply about brand awareness. So when the Fendalton / Remuera Mum pops down to her local New World, wanders past the Brie and Camembert to the milk and sees this A2 bottle she'll pick it up because she recognises the brand.

I also see thsi asa "laying the foundation" type advert.

Next up I reckon we will see more media releases about the scientific research results which will show how bad A1 is for you and how A2 is a much healthier option - especially if you are "worried" about your health(that is you do a lot of self -diagnosis) and have money.

In NZ the target market is the Worried Wealthy. Nothing more, nothing less.

[minimoke]

But much more importantly we have ATM and SML racing out of the blocks today. ATM up 5.2% and SML up 3.1.

I hope everyone took advantage of the bargain basement prices last week!

EDIT. Well, we started the day well until those Ozzies woke up.

[Leftfield]

There's an old saying in advertising........ "Good advertising sells the 'sizzle' - not the sausage"

ATM are selling the 'feeling' not the milk.

My tummy feels the difference.

[Beagle]

Agree 100%. Good marketing works on brand building and looks to enhance the brand in the customers eyes. A good example - BMW "The Ultimate Driving Machine"
Yes I topped up SML at a very distressed price late last week and am definitely "feeling the difference" today :)

[Balance]

But much more importantly we have ATM and SML racing out of the blocks today. ATM up 5.2% and SML up 3.1.

I hope everyone took advantage of the bargain basement prices last week!

EDIT. Well, we started the day well until those Ozzies woke up.

Some NZ investors still do not get it - ATM's sp is NOT driven out of NZX.

Painful lesson learnt this morning?

[blackcap]

Some NZ investors still do not get it - ATM's sp is NOT driven out of NZX.

Painful lesson learnt this morning?

Interestingly the Aussie market was called down about 50 points at 11AM NZ time, when the NZ market was still up by over 100 points. That was a bit weird.

[Balance]

Interestingly the Aussie market was called down about 50 points at 11AM NZ time, when the NZ market was still up by over 100 points. That was a bit weird.

All bad news on the financial sector in Oz currently.

The banks have behaved like a bunch of mafia gangsters and are due for their comeuppance.

And behaving like that after they were 'rescued' by the Oz government during the GFC.

[Leftfield]

I think we are all aware that the ATM SP is being dictated by the ASX.

When I look at both TA's I see the SP poised...... poised to continue back to its trend above the MA200..... or poised to fall further below the MA200. It all depends on the next update IMO.

Shorter's glow in the CEO's sell-down error and possible negative China market reform. On the contrary side there is anecdotal evidence that A2 is doing v well in China and it's market share is increasing plus anecdotal evidence that IF exports from Lyttelton have increased 40% over prior periods so far FY19. Who will be right?

I'm not predicting..... I'm just waiting. It's not exactly time for the faint hearted or 'new investors' to be investing in ATM IMO.

[steveb]

reminds me a bit of Oceania gold when it was on the NZX now that was a wild ride,but at the end of the day you knew the SP would bounce in your favour eventually, after all you were dealing with gold.As for A2 milk yes you got it liquid gold!

[minimoke]

Some NZ investors still do not get it - ATM's sp is NOT driven out of NZX.

Painful lesson learnt this morning?We get - but it doesn't stop some opportunities. If you were a seller you would have done well this morning on the NZX (I'm not buying - already well positioned. Nor am I selling)

[Ted2]

But much more importantly we have ATM and SML racing out of the blocks today. ATM up 5.2% and SML up 3.1.

I hope everyone took advantage of the bargain basement prices last week!

EDIT. Well, we started the day well until those Ozzies woke up.

The Aussies are particularly sour today after getting beaten in the Netball and the League (despite the Bunker doing its' best to help them!)

[couta1]

84c price spread, don't ya just love that volatility.Lol

[minimoke]

The Aussies are particularly sour today after getting beaten in the Netball and the League (despite the Bunker doing its' best to help them!)NZ version of Scrabble also trying to take "pavlova" off them so they will be super pissed.

[sb9]

84c price spread, don't ya just love that volatility.Lol

Traders dream stock this one!!!

[hardt]

10075 going alright

[petty]

Where's that?

[hardt]

Where's that?

Cdown quay st Auck city.

Full priced A2 £32+ a tin selling out every other day as the *shelfwarmers*
Blackmore's and Bellamy's sit

[carrom74]

Cdown quay st Auck city.

Full priced A2 £32+ a tin selling out every other day as the *shelfwarmers*
Blackmore's and Bellamy's sit
“Shelf warmers”... haha made my day!

[longy]

So was USB shorting? I have a look the SP on the 10/10 and the 11/11 They became sub holding on the 10th and SP was around $10.21 then sold some on the 11th when the SP was lower than on the 10th. Perhaps they just like others got cold feet and off load some?

[Ggcc]

Well I think yesterday’s lesson might have taken hold. Before buying wait to see what Australia decides to do....... It’s a crazy market and only longterm investments should be purchased unless you have a clue what you are doing......

[winner69]

Good Q1 — Gaining share in most markets and “anticipate growth in revenue” while maintaining ebitda margins

All good stuff

No worries

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/ATM/325393/288720.pdf

[minimoke]

From the presentation

[Beagle]

Looks solid to me, glad I added to Synlait recently. I think this schizophrenic market might have got more than a little carried away knocking down the milk twins.

[Southern_Belle]

Good Q1 — Gaining share in most markets and “anticipate growth in revenue” while maintaining ebitda margins

All good stuff

No worries

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/ATM/325393/288720.pdf
Highlight for me is moving dairy focus to nutritional product portfolio. More IP within their product range... a smart move. And who can ignore all that cash on hand ..... loyal shareholders to be rewarded ?? .....hopefully :)

[allfromacell]

Good to to see China value market share increase 10% in just 3 months (5.1% in June to 5.6% in September).

[Beagle]

Highlight for me is moving dairy focus to nutritional product portfolio. More IP within their product range... a smart move. And who can ignore all that cash on hand ..... loyal shareholders to be rewarded ?? .....hopefully :)

Takeover of Synlait coming ?

[silu]

Thar she blows again...

[martinchnz1]

Thar she blows again...

Up 8.3% already, bloody hell wonder where she will settle today.

[Leftfield]

Takeover of Synlait coming ?

Not from A2 IMHO. From today's presentation......(strategic alliances more the A2 style.)

10082

[Balance]

Up 8.3% already, bloody hell wonder where she will settle today.

Panic shortcovering is what I am hearing, coming from across Oz.

[silu]

Up 8.3% already, bloody hell wonder where she will settle today.

Lets wait what the ASX has to say about this but can see lots of short positions closing today.

[Beagle]

Some sorters are going to be badly burned today. Burn baby burn !

[silu]

I was close to selling last week but then a little voice popped into my head that just said "look at all that cash".

[minimoke]

Thar she blows again...
Dont get too excited. Oz hasnt opened yet.

[Balance]

Dont get too excited. Oz hasnt opened yet.

Suspect this time ATM will go higher when Oz opens.

Wall Street back on a charge as well.

Easy come, easy go?

[silu]

Dont get too excited. Oz hasnt opened yet.

Not getting excited but it's the first sign for a while to shorters to close their position.

[Ggcc]

Quite a subdued response in Australia. Maybe this afternoon might be better. Onward and upward I think

[steveb]

Quite a subdued response in Australia. Maybe this afternoon might be better. Onward and upward I think
Methiks a rocket has been put under it in aus since you last looked A$9.72 and climbing fast

[Ggcc]

Methiks a rocket has been put under it in aus since you last looked A$9.72 and climbing fast
I stand corrected woohoo

[44wishlists]

Wondering what bull... has to say this time?

[IAK]

And on National Radio businness news this afternoon A2 Milk's sluggish share price 'old news' to CE who sold stake. Ms Hrdlicka attributes decline in share price to mumblings around the US trade war with China & China cracking down on luxury goods. No worries.

https://www.radionz.co.nz/national/programmes/businessnews/audio/2018667209/a2-milk-s-sluggish-share-price-old-news-to-ceo-who-sold-stake

[Balance]

And on National Radio businness news this afternoon A2 Milk's sluggish share price 'old news' to CE who sold stake. Ms Hrdlicka attributes decline in share price to mumblings around the US trade war with China & China cracking down on luxury goods. No worries.

https://www.radionz.co.nz/national/programmes/businessnews/audio/2018667209/a2-milk-s-sluggish-share-price-old-news-to-ceo-who-sold-stake

She is so full of digested A1 milk.

[dobby41]

She is so full of digested A1 milk.

What do you attribute the decline in share price to?

[minimoke]

And on National Radio businness news this afternoon A2 Milk's sluggish share price 'old news' to CE who sold stake. "Sluggish". I'd call it "fall off a cliff" share price. A month ago it was $12.50. The current rally today is seeing it at $10.50 and we are all excited!

[BigBob]

She is so full of digested A1 milk.

Yeah, she's clearly responsible for the US/China trade wars, the FED's interest rate increases and last week's sell off in global shares. She's probably also got a hand in Brexit, so how dares she talk about being focused on driving excellent outcomes for the company and shareholders....

[777]

Yeah, she's clearly responsible for the US/China trade wars, the FED's interest rate increases and last week's sell off in global shares. She's probably also got a hand in Brexit, so how dares she talk about being focused on driving excellent outcomes for the company and shareholders....

So you want to ignore her 100% sell down of her shares. That action knocked a lot off the share price before the latest market downward adjustment. Short memory.

[nzsharetrade]

Yeah, she's clearly responsible for the US/China trade wars, the FED's interest rate increases and last week's sell off in global shares. She's probably also got a hand in Brexit, so how dares she talk about being focused on driving excellent outcomes for the company and shareholders....

sounds like there is still not her problem even without US/China trade wars, the FED's interest rate...etc...

[BigBob]

So you want to ignore her 100% sell down of her shares. That action knocked a lot off the share price before the latest market downward adjustment. Short memory.

No I don't. I think that was seriously bad judgment by her and the company. However, looking past that, nothing has changed, and I think it's time to move on.

Today's update reconfirms what the company has been saying and it is promising another update at the agm. It is a great NZ succes story, yet the journo on national radio asks two questions about the share sales and none about the company, its story or its prospects...

[Beagle]

http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/78a4e1e4/a2-shares-climb-7-7-as-chinese-formula-sales-grow.html?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=A2%20shares%20climb%2077%20as%20Chine se%20formula%20sales%20grow&utm_content=A2%20shares%20climb%2077%20as%20Chines e%20formula%20sales%20grow+CID_8a7117b11a07b12a92b c0615003ded33&utm_source=Email%20marketing%20software&utm_term=httpwwwsharechatconzarticle78a4e1e4a2-shares-climb-7-7-as-chinese-formula-sales-growhtml

[dobby41]

So you want to ignore her 100% sell down of her shares. That action knocked a lot off the share price before the latest market downward adjustment. Short memory.

Personally I think there were a whole lot of other things happening and people were just looking for a catalyst.
Her actions may have been the trigger but not the reason.

[777]

Personally I think there were a whole lot of other things happening and people were just looking for a catalyst.
Her actions may have been the trigger but not the reason.


Well as a shareholder I was incensed that first she was issued with the shares in the first place and then to rub it in sold the lot. I am sure I am not alone. The board I hold totally responsible for the the initial issue.

[steveb]

She probably didn't have much influence on todays update,and its still to early to judge her performance.In hidsight though it might have been better for her to finish her contract with jetheap.Hence she would not have been allocated the same amount of shares.The board do need to answer the question as to why they thought it necessary to headhunt her in the first place.

Perhaps if I manage to get to the agm I will ask!

[winner69]

She probably didn't have much influence on todays update,and its still to early to judge her performance.In hidsight though it might have been better for her to finish her contract with jetheap.Hence she would not have been allocated the same amount of shares.The board do need to answer the question as to why they thought it necessary to headhunt her in the first place.

Perhaps if I manage to get to the agm I will ask!

Jayne had finished with Jethead and was with Qantas. When she left she was CEO Qantas Loyalty and Digital Ventures ....and in some quarters was touted as the next CEO of Qantas

[Muppett]

Yeah, she's clearly responsible for the US/China trade wars, the FED's interest rate increases and last week's sell off in global shares. She's probably also got a hand in Brexit, so how dares she talk about being focused on driving excellent outcomes for the company and shareholders....

Think of it like this.......... we now know that the stock is not worth more than $12.20.

[allfromacell]

Think of it like this.......... we now know that the stock is not worth more than $12.20.


It's a tough one to value that's for sure... A2 now reckon they have 5.6% of a $25B dollar pie that's growing YoY. Not only is the pie getting larger but so is their slice (10% bigger slice in the past 3 months alone).

5.6% of 25B is 1.4B in sales from infant formula alone with lots more growth to come. A2 hope to achieve a 10% market share in china not to mention all the other markets they're expanding into. The market may not currently value the stock at more than $12.20 but I certainly do.

[777]

Jayne had finished with Jethead and was with Qantas. When she left she was CEO Qantas Loyalty and Digital Ventures ....and in some quarters was touted as the next CEO of Qantas

Jetstar fully owned by Qantas.

[Muppett]

It's a tough one to value that's for sure... A2 now reckon they have 5.6% of a $25B dollar pie that's growing YoY. Not only is the pie getting larger but so is their slice (10% bigger slice in the past 3 months alone).

5.6% of 25B is 1.4B in sales from infant formula alone with lots more growth to come. A2 hope to achieve a 10% market share in china not to mention all the other markets they're expanding into. The market may not currently value the stock at more than $12.20 but I certainly do.

I have not checked your figures, I'm sure they are right. Where these in the last couple of presentations?
What do you currently value the stock at?

[allfromacell]

I have not checked your figures, I'm sure they are right. Where these in the last couple of presentations?
What do you currently value the stock at?


The market share numbers are in the presentation on page 26 however the actual size of the market being worth $25B I've not seen much data on to be honest. It's just what I've seen thrown around so don't take it as gospel. If anyone has any source for the size of the market I would be interested in reading it. $1.4B in sales in just the high margin Chinese IF market so quickly does seem a little too good to be true.

I can't give you a dollar amount in what I value it, I have no idea. All I know is definitely more than $12.20.

[winner69]

Jetstar fully owned by Qantas.

I know that, not that stupid ......just correcting that wish of somebody who thought it better if they had let her finish her contract with Jethead ....she already had and had started a new job in Joyce’s leadership shuffle

[Ghost Monkey]

I have not checked your figures, I'm sure they are right. Where these in the last couple of presentations?
What do you currently value the stock at?

Those figures not quite right.

25B is estimate of global infant formula sales, give or take. The 5.6% share is what A2 claim they have in the Chinese market, not globally. For instance, they claim to have 32% share in Australia, but nothing in USA as sales there are mostly of liquid milk. Not sure what share of global sales of infant formula A2 currently has though, would be interesting to know. I doubt more than 2%.

According to Sharechat analyst's predict $1.25B in sales to June, not 1.4B, and certainly not as it stands now.

[Muppett]

I know that, not that stupid ......just correcting that wish of somebody who thought it better if they had let her finish her contract with Jethead ....she already had and had started a new job in Joyce’s leadership shuffle

Joyce is / was not stupid.

[winner69]

In the Annual Report they say China and Other Asia sales were $233.6m and mentioned this 5.1% IF market share (up from 2.8% a year earlier.

Allfromacell — Work something out from this but $25 billion doesn’t seem to come into it.

Interested to see what you come up with .....and it’s probably not $12.20

[Leftfield]

Those figures not quite right.

25B is estimate of global infant formula sales, give or take.

Beg to differ, I've seen estimates of the Chinese market alone at $US 20 billion. ATM's 5.6% of that = approx $US 1.1 billion sales out of China alone.

Thing is, at the end of the day, China estimates are just that - estimates.

Seems ATM is well on the way to $1.2 to $1.3 billion TOTAL sales in FY19, but DYOR (I'm a tab biased.)