ATM - A2 Milk Corporation Limited

[longy]

What is the possibility that the result will be a cracker at the next round of announcement?

I have got what I waited for. A bit more clarity in where it is heading = More certainty now and that I shall continue to hold. That is exciting.

[Balance]

No I don't. I think that was seriously bad judgment by her and the company. However, looking past that, nothing has changed, and I think it's time to move on.

Today's update reconfirms what the company has been saying and it is promising another update at the agm. It is a great NZ succes story, yet the journo on national radio asks two questions about the share sales and none about the company, its story or its prospects...

Nothing has changed?

Perception and reputation are very important aspects of how investors and markets view and value a stock, which can lead to perception of the company's products as well.

ATM had a superb reputation and perception in the market as a company - built up over the last 2 decades (some very serious hard work and sacrifice by the original founders against all the odds) and what she has done, in one move, is to damage that reputation and perception.

ATM will recover but it is going to take years (especially with her at the helm) to rebuild that reputation and perception.

Not time to move on - it is important that the board and management of this company are kept on notice not to f**k like that again.

[Baa_Baa]

Uh oh, Balance on the ATM thread! Lol.

It's true though, that Jayne rattled shareholders with her ill-considered sell out, but she has a truck load more shares coming if she stays the course and performs. So angst shifts to the Board who agreed such a shonky onboarding package, hopefully a lesson learned for both.

Today's presentation restores a great deal of confidence that despite some dubious remuneration decisions the business is going gangbusters.

Only cloud on the horizon is locking in secure supply to their key market China. I have confidence that the new regime will facilitate whatever is good for China, and ATM is good, very good.

I expect shareholders will move on from the recent debacle and those who held and those who bought recently will look back in the near future and either wonder whether the fuss was worth the SP hammering, or rejoice in the opportunity it presented to buy at relatively low multiples.

ATM is a massive success, which will continue to reward shareholders for years to come.

[Muppett]

Uh oh, Balance on the ATM thread! Lol.

......

ATM is a massive success, which will continue to reward shareholders for years to come.

Scientists already producing "lab meat" that tastes like chicken.
Just a question of time, before milk is produced in a lab.

[petty]

Board reviewing options for wise use of capital part of which is further investment in canning and blending (p28) Further investment in synlait on the way? Given the Synlait focus on added value nutritional products and new R&D investment I see some real benefit to A2 here. Further Synlait have the most comprehensive provenance and naturalness (grass fed) farm assurance programmes that exist in the nz market in my view (unsure about aus). Both areas of focus for A2 (p13)

Disc hold both 3:1 sml:atm

[winner69]

From twitterland ......A2 winning big time?

@marklisternz
Danone just said it saw a 20% drop in infant formula sales into China during the September quarter. Interesting given the positive update from a2 Milk this morning, where the company announced some solid market share gains in China.

[sb9]

Board reviewing options for wise use of capital part of which is further investment in canning and blending (p28) Further investment in synlait on the way? Given the Synlait focus on added value nutritional products and new R&D investment I see some real benefit to A2 here. Further Synlait have the most comprehensive provenance and naturalness (grass fed) farm assurance programmes that exist in the nz market in my view (unsure about aus). Both areas of focus for A2 (p13)

Disc hold both 3:1 sml:atm

My mix ratio of them is 6:1 atm:sml

[winner69]

Bit more on Danone September quarter disaster in China from Reuters


Sales of Danone’s ‘Early Life Nutrition’ products in China fell 20 percent in the third quarter after growing by around 30 percent in the second quarter of 2018 and by over 50 percent in the third-quarter 2017.

In China, where Danone competes in the baby food market with Nestle and Reckitt Benckiser, there has been strong demand for baby formula products thanks to a sharp rise in birth rates tied to the end of China’s one-child policy, and the emergence of new cities and an affluent middle class.

The peak in birth rates, however, happened in 2016 and started slowing down in late 2017, leading Danone to caution that the Chinese market will progressively show more normal trends from the second half of 2018 onwards.

Danone’s indirect E-commerce infant formula sales had also benefited last year from China’s decision to delay regulation of cross-border e-commerce, which led to stocking up by traders.



https://www.reuters.com/article/danone-results/update-1-french-group-danones-q3-sales-growth-slows-on-china-and-morocco-woes-idUSL8N1WX0P7

[Baa_Baa]

From twitterland ......A2 winning big time?

@marklisternz
Danone just said it saw a 20% drop in infant formula sales into China during the September quarter. Interesting given the positive update from a2 Milk this morning, where the company announced some solid market share gains in China.

Market share lost to whom? ATM not even mentioned as a competitor, maybe Danone didn't see them coming and ATM share of market increases at their expense.

How come you raining on the parade, did you miss the lows?

[winner69]

Market share lost to whom? ATM not even mentioned as a competitor, maybe Danone didn't see them coming and ATM share of market increases at their expense.

How come you raining on the parade, did you miss the lows?

I take it Danone sell more IF in China than A2 ....yes?

[minimoke]

Scientists already producing "lab meat" that tastes like chicken.
Just a question of time, before milk is produced in a lab.Just because they can doesnt mean people will want to buy it

[longy]

Scientists already producing "lab meat" that tastes like chicken.
Just a question of time, before milk is produced in a lab.

The last time I read about it... it cost around $2500 per kg of beef initially, early on this year price dropped to about $1800 per kg. So we may have a bit more to go before it gets below $29 per kg.

[Muppett]

The last time I read about it... it cost around $2500 per kg of beef initially, early on this year price dropped to about $1800 per kg. So we may have a bit more to go before it gets below $29 per kg.

All you need are a few cells and things reproduce.
The point is that Baa_Baa said ATM will reward you/us for years to come.
Maybe, maybe not.
Synthetic a2 milk?
Just take your money off the table while you can before a clever dick or Trougher beats you to it.

[Balance]

Scientists already producing "lab meat" that tastes like chicken.
Just a question of time, before milk is produced in a lab.

The Asians have been producing imitation meat from tofu for vegetarians since 30 years ago! Looks like meat, taste like meat and has texture of meat.

The Japanese has been producing imitation fish and seafood (surimi) since the 1970s.

Served to grow the market but there has been no real switch out of the real stuff into the imitation stuff.

[Muppett]

The Asians have been producing imitation meat from tofu for vegetarians since 30 years ago! Looks like meat, taste like meat and has texture of meat.

The Japanese has been producing imitation fish and seafood (surimi) since the 1970s.

Served to grow the market but there has been no real switch out of the real stuff into the imitation stuff.

They probably all need some milk to wash it down with so it tastes better.

[Balance]

They probably all need some milk to wash it down with so it tastes better.

Has to be A2 milk then.

[BlackPeter]

Scientists already producing "lab meat" that tastes like chicken.
Just a question of time, before milk is produced in a lab.

Absolutely - and money will grow on trees.

Personally not sure about ATM's longterm success ... but not too concerned about fake meat and milk (and money ;)); Sure - there will be people who use the fake stuff but I am sure there always will be people who want the real thing ... and are prepared to pay a premium for it.

[waikare]

Absolutely - and money will grow on trees.

Personally not sure about ATM's longterm success ... but not too concerned about fake meat and milk (and money ;)); Sure - there will be people who use the fake stuff but I am sure there always will be people who want the real thing ... and are prepared to pay a premium for it.

I am one of those that likes the real thing, and happy to pay a premium for it.

[winner69]

When ATM China share goes from 5.1% to 5.6% how much extra revenue does this generate for A2?

Still weird Danone China IF sales down 20% in Sept quarter ....market must be shrinking!

[steveb]

Jayne had finished with Jethead and was with Qantas. When she left she was CEO Qantas Loyalty and Digital Ventures ....and in some quarters was touted as the next CEO of Qantas
Jayne was ceo loyalty for a month before she resigned so we can't count that as having any meaningful impression on the ATM board!

[see weed]

Jayne was ceo loyalty for a month before she resigned so we can't count that as having any meaningful impression on the ATM board!
We all have a vote next month, so vote them out. There are some capable people on this forum that can probably do the job....Beagle etc ;).

[Leftfield]

When ATM China share goes from 5.1% to 5.6% how much extra revenue does this generate for A2?

If you believe Morgans research it will add over $400 mill to revenue ($1.4 billion total revenue for FY19) or about $100 mill in net profit.

If you believe exports of IF from Lyttelton being up 40% for the first 2 months of FY19, then maybe the Morgans figure of total FY19 sales is achievable. Morgans have a target SP FY19 of $A 14.40 (Fwd P/E of around 31)

What's your thinking Winner?
.

[Sideshow Bob]

Article on Nestle A2 in NZ and Oz.

https://www.nutraingredients-asia.com/Article/2018/10/17/Nestle-gearing-up-to-compete-with-a2-Milk-with-impending-formula-launch-in-Australia-NZ?utm_source=newsletter_daily&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=18-Oct-2018&c=vyBYncJCWKU4BS7c8IXgYETFjiyhvPHs&p2=

[couta1]

Article in the Herald this morning says Herd Licker set to earn 8 million this year, shareholders association says her remuneration package is a shocker considering she hasn't done anything yet and is simply riding off the back of all the hard work done by Geoff Babidge, I agree totally no finer example of a Mega Trougher.

[minimoke]

We all have a vote next month, so vote them out. There are some capable people on this forum that can probably do the job....Beagle etc ;).We should all know by now that we minority shareholders cannot influence the outcome of the vote (doesn't mean we shouldn't vote though - a it is at least a quantifiable sign of descent. But as Derek Handley learnt yesterday at the SKY TV AGM there is nothing to stop minority shareholders attempting to hold directors to account at the AGM

[winner69]

If you believe Morgans research it will add over $400 mill to revenue ($1.4 billion total revenue for FY19) or about $100 mill in net profit.

If you believe exports of IF from Lyttelton being up 40% for the first 2 months of FY19, then maybe the Morgans figure of total FY19 sales is achievable. Morgans have a target SP FY19 of $A 14.40 (Fwd P/E of around 31)

What's your thinking Winner?
.

You could be right with the $1.4m total billion ...but that’s not all from China

I reckon China might do $400m

Some seem to have this $25 billion China IF market size in their thinking but that can’t be right as A2 only sold $233m in China last year

[waikare]

Article in the Herald this morning says Herd Licker set to earn 8 million this year, shareholders association says her remuneration package is a shocker considering she hasn't done anything yet and is simply riding off the back of all the hard work done by Geoff Babidge, I agree totally no finer example of a Mega Trougher.

I also read the Herald article, and agree with the Shareholders Assoc. Hrdlicka need to produce the goods to earn her $8. mill. this year, we all know that she has no loyalty to A2 this she clearly demonstrated by hocking off all her free shares within two months in the job.
We maybe a majority when it comes to voting, and can't influence the outcome, but at least I have 27,000 odd more votes to cast than she has.

[Leftfield]

You could be right with the $1.4m total billion ...but that’s not all from China

I reckon China might do $400m

Some seem to have this $25 billion China IF market size in their thinking but that can’t be right as A2 only sold $233m in China last year

I agree re total figs heading to $1.4b

Morgans are forecasting $500m sales of IF to China in FY19 (sounds about right - maybe a tab high.)

I suspect that ATM's FY18 fig of $233 mill misses the influence of the Daigou channel which see's a large % of the IF sales attributed to Australia actually heading to China?

Also, I am rather sceptical re the total size of the IF mkt in China. You say $25b I'm happier at $20b. But it may be less.

[winner69]

I agree re total figs heading to $1.4b

Morgans are forecasting $500m sales of IF to China in FY19 (sounds about right - maybe a tab high.)

I suspect that ATM's FY18 fig of $233 mill misses the influence of the Daigou channel which see's a large % of the IF sales attributed to Australia actually heading to China?

Also, I am rather sceptical re the total size of the IF mkt in China. You say $25b I'm happier at $20b. But it may be less.

Even if the IF China market is $20 billion how come A2 have over 5% share when their total sales worldwide are just over $1 billion now ( and this includes ordinary milk and other stuff as well as IF)

Also what you think of Danone saying China slack as in the September quarter (sales down 20%)

[winner69]

What’s happening to share price today .....it was meant to be recovering

[silu]

What’s happening to share price today .....it was meant to be recovering

Dow was down -1.27%

[allfromacell]

Dow was down -1.27%


China also continued it's slide which is now down a whopping 43% for the year. It's seems there is some real economic risk weighing in on China and if things go pear-shape there perhaps some mothers will think twice about spend $100 on IF.

[Leftfield]

Even if the IF China market is $20 billion how come A2 have over 5% share when their total sales worldwide are just over $1 billion now ( and this includes ordinary milk and other stuff as well as IF)
Also what you think of Danone saying China slack as in the September quarter (sales down 20%)

As I've been trying to say.... I believe ATM's published/audited sales figs and NZ IF export stats (up 40%), BUT I'm cynical of the Total China IF market figs, I reckon it is currently lower than the $20 b. (I seem to recall the oft quoted $20 b figure was a future estimated fig..... possibly FY20?)

Re Danone - I can't comment, but would like to think that A2 milk is preferred due to the tendency for Asian tummy's as opposed to A1 based products such as Danone...... but there could be many other factors, price, availability, channels of distribution etc. The only thing I take from the news is that once again A2 is doing a great job in a difficult market.

Re latest price slump - I agree with allfromacell, the China share market and financial markets are struggling and the trade wars are just starting. This may have market implications for ATM in second half FY19. However, China may give priority to non USA trading partners. See this article. https://edition.cnn.com/2018/10/18/investing/protectionism-china-tariffs-trade-markets-economy-recession/index.html

[Sideshow Bob]

$22m in shares sold by execs

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/farming/107986335/a2-executives-sell-off-22m-worth-of-shares

[winner69]

Jeez ...LinkedIn tells me that some dude at A2 did a search and my name came up

Just waiting for the job offer ....maybe Jaynes job

[Ggcc]

Jeez ...LinkedIn tells me that some dude at A2 did a search and my name came up

Just waiting for the job offer ....maybe Jaynes job
Haha my mrs gets these search notifications all the time from big NZ companies.

One thing to add to the future of ATM. Has anyone taken the 10% drop in the last 6 months for the NZ dollar into account. We could see a 10% increase in the bottom line. Maybe $300+ million profit.

[reacher]

https://www.reddit.com/r/australia/comments/9q1aig/baby_formula/?st=JNJB5N92&sh=b30a7e09

A2 Platinum still flying off the shelves in this video. Lots of commenters saying formula is sold out by pre orders at super markets in Aus before it even hits the shelves.

[allfromacell]

Sales continue to go gangbusters in China too, with a 10% increase in market share in 3 months sales must be excellent. Not long until we get the 4 month trading update at the AGM and shorts now up over 5% this is setting up nicely for a squeeze if the update surprises on the upside.

[winner69]

But if a down day on the ASX so far today

Maybe not a good start to the week for us

[winner69]

Fun in Woolworths

https://www.news.com.au/finance/business/retail/baby-formula-stockpiling-footage-sparks-shock/news-story/d61b8178057144e2ae9c235b0fac4b1a

[Ggcc]

Fun in Woolworths

https://www.news.com.au/finance/business/retail/baby-formula-stockpiling-footage-sparks-shock/news-story/d61b8178057144e2ae9c235b0fac4b1a
All these supermarkets say they will do something because the public don’t like to see it happening. It happens with Coca Cola in New Zealand, but in this case Coca Cola want it to stop. The purchasers mainly dairy owners just meet management at the back of the supermarket and buy in bulk as it is cheaper than buying via Coca Cola. Supermarkets don’t care where they get their sales from as long as they sell as much as they can and I don’t think A2 care where they sell..... Or would they get more selling it to China direct?

[winner69]

share price under $10;on NZX tomorrow by looks of it ...and SML will go down as well.

[Ggcc]

share price under $10;on NZX tomorrow by looks of it ...and SML will go down as well.
Oh well. If all goes as planned we will see the share hit $13 by Christmas and $15 by next year Christmas l, again if all goes as planned

[couta1]

share price under $10;on NZX tomorrow by looks of it ...and SML will go down as well. HaHa you should know by now not to make early predictions on this stock.

[Beagle]

Fun in Woolworths

https://www.news.com.au/finance/business/retail/baby-formula-stockpiling-footage-sparks-shock/news-story/d61b8178057144e2ae9c235b0fac4b1a


share price under $10;on NZX tomorrow by looks of it ...and SML will go down as well.

One wonders if the correction hasn't almost run its course, what with examples like this of ongoing rampant demand and the company itself confirming very solid sales for the first quarter. Synlait too has fallen a very long way from $13 in recent weeks. I think those who have the patience and that can withstand the current volatility will be well rewarded in time. Disc: Holding good sized position in Synlait.

[winner69]

HaHa you should know by now not to make early predictions on this stock.

Sorry mate - I should know better eh

Better afternoon on ASX so looking good for us tomorrow .....maybe well over 11 bucks

No worries

[Sideshow Bob]

Farmers weekly article on current A2 (and Synlait) share price issues

https://farmersweekly.co.nz/section/dairy/view/shares-wobble-as-rules-change

[Xerof]

One thing to add to the future of ATM. Has anyone taken the 10% drop in the last 6 months for the NZ dollar into account. We could see a 10% increase in the bottom line. Maybe $300+ million profit.

You wish. As if any Company would go completely unhedged.

Having said that, they may as well, as all hedging ever does is provide certainty for the duration of their hedge book, with a little bit of latitude for gains (or losses) at the margin, if their Treasurer has been given some 'flexibility' in the risk tolerance area. Boards these days are a little gun shy when it comes to governance issues; it was far less tied up in mumbo-jumbo practice and policy documentation in my day.

Discl: Treasurer for 35 years

[Leftfield]

Farmers weekly article on current A2 (and Synlait) share price issues
https://farmersweekly.co.nz/section/dairy/view/shares-wobble-as-rules-change

Thanks for posting/sharing.

[Balance]

Farmers weekly article on current A2 (and Synlait) share price issues

https://farmersweekly.co.nz/section/dairy/view/shares-wobble-as-rules-change

"Both A2 and Synlait are speculative stocks with prices that rose by $10 over the past two years before the recent retreat."

Interesting perspective?

Snakk and Plexxxure are speculative in my books but hi, who am I to argue with a journo if he writes athat companies which have real operations making hundreds of millions of dollars of sales and profits are speculative!

[Ggcc]

"Both A2 and Synlait are speculative stocks with prices that rose by $10 over the past two years before the recent retreat."

Interesting perspective?

Snakk and Plexxxure are speculative in my books but hi, who am I to argue with a journo if he writes athat companies which have real operations making hundreds of millions of dollars of sales and profits are speculative!
I thought the exact same thing. How long will they remain speculative......... when they make half a billion dollars in profits?

[Balance]

I thought the exact same thing. How long will they remain speculative......... when they make half a billion dollars in profits?

When they become like Fonterra if you read the article - fat, lazy and going downhill.

[Scrunch]

I thought the exact same thing. How long will they remain speculative......... when they make half a billion dollars in profits?

Imo when growth rates down to the teens or single digit numbers and the p/e comes back down. And you are correct that this could be when they have grown to have a half billion profit and market cap a bit over $10b. The p/e would then be slightly over 20.

Till then there is a lot of speculation in the share price that rapid growth will be achieved. Probably well justified speculation, but still speculation.

[Scrunch]

Imo when growth rates down to the teens or single digit numbers and the p/e comes back down. And you are correct that this could be when they have grown to have a half billion profit and market cap a bit over $10b. The p/e would then be slightly over 20.

Till then there is a lot of speculation in the share price that rapid growth will be achieved. Probably well justified speculation, but still speculation.

Over thinking it. The author probably just equates a high p/e and the recent emergence of good profits as being speculative.

[Sideshow Bob]

Over thinking it. The author probably just equates a high p/e and the recent emergence of good profits as being speculative.

And low asset backing.

[sb9]

"Both A2 and Synlait are speculative stocks with prices that rose by $10 over the past two years before the recent retreat."

Interesting perspective?

Snakk and Plexxxure are speculative in my books but hi, who am I to argue with a journo if he writes athat companies which have real operations making hundreds of millions of dollars of sales and profits are speculative!

Good example of very poor journalism.....

[macduffy]

A good stock can be speculative at a particular price.

:cool:

[steveb]

Aussie are paying a 20c NZ premium at the mo the sp is $10.52 over there,is this a good guide to the price going up over here?

[couta1]

Aussie are paying a 20c NZ premium at the mo the sp is $10.52 over there,is this a good guide to the price going up over here? They are not paying a premium, SP is tracking currency conversion or close to it eg $9.58AU equals $10.34 NZ

[Balance]

https://www.9news.com.au/2018/10/23/07/20/baby-formula-buying-frenzy-prompts-woolies-to-reinstate-limits

And still they keep on buying!

"A2 has also doubled production of its premium formula, but that's not enough to meet supply."

[Baa_Baa]

https://www.9news.com.au/2018/10/23/07/20/baby-formula-buying-frenzy-prompts-woolies-to-reinstate-limits

And still they keep on buying!

"A2 has also doubled production of its premium formula, but that's not enough to meet supply."

What a great problem to have and solve. With Synlait rapidly boosting production and the agreement with Fonterror (unknown quantity), the supply side should catch up to the demand, but not in time for Singles Day 11 November. No doubt that A2 is the premium brand.

Should be a fun update from ATM in November. I reckon the Jayne / Directors selling effect is worth about 20% discount to SP and should burn off to previous highs when results announced shortly.

Could say this recent period has been a great buying opportunity. Even Moaningstar (cough) reckon it's 'accumulate' target SP in the $14's. They could be right for once, lol.

[Beagle]

If they are right in due course that's all the proof you'll ever need that every dog has its day :)

[Baa_Baa]

If they are right in due course that's all the proof you'll ever need that every dog has its day :)

Of course you are referring to Moaningstar as the dog, who might have its day? Not ATM pe se.

I reckon this is one of the very few shares on NZX that have such a stellar growth niche that while it will fluctuate with the broader market and its internal vagaries, and no doubt it is volatile, it has extremely large growth potential. It could defy the market in the medium to longer term in spite of a even a broad correction and emerge as a value/growth play that one wonders in due course why they missed the buying opportunities presented.

JMHO, it's still very speculative despite a 10+ bagger for the earlies. But so have been a few other companies that enjoy having accidental millionaires as their minority shareholders.

Worthy of a modest portion of any portfolio Imo.

[sb9]

Latest from Prof Woodford...

https://www.interest.co.nz/rural-news/96517/keith-woodford-describes-how-major-global-dairy-companies-are-now-reacting-a2-milk

The below sums up article in a nutshell..

"A2 dairy products are now mainstreaming on a global platform. In marketing parlance, A2 is becoming an industry disruptor."

[Balance]

Latest from Prof Woodford...

https://www.interest.co.nz/rural-news/96517/keith-woodford-describes-how-major-global-dairy-companies-are-now-reacting-a2-milk

The below sums up article in a nutshell..

"A2 dairy products are now mainstreaming on a global platform. In marketing parlance, A2 is becoming an industry disruptor."

Just wait until mothers (especially those in China) read this :

"Professor Robert Cade from Florida – perhaps most famous as the inventor of Gatorade – established some 20 years ago that BCM7 was a respiratory depressant strongly implicated in sudden infant death syndrome in vulnerable babies. Professor Kost from Moscow showed that babies unable to quickly metabolise BCM7 were at risk of developmental delay. And for some 20 years there have been major concerns leading from Professor Elliott’s work in New Zealand that BCM7 can be a childhood trigger for Type 1 diabetes. There is also evidence that BCM7 can cause arterial inflammation. All of this is published in top-level journals."

Game over for A1 infant formula!

[dobby41]

Game over for A1 infant formula!

I wonder how long it would take for all cows in NZ to be A2?
If that were to happen ATM would no longer be special - all NZ milk and milk products would be A2 - ganme over for ATM?

[Sideshow Bob]

I wonder how long it would take for all cows in NZ to be A2?
If that were to happen ATM would no longer be special - all NZ milk and milk products would be A2 - ganme over for ATM?

https://www.interest.co.nz/rural-news/92603/keith-woodford-explains-process-converting-dairy-herds-a2-one-will%C2%A0take

LIC already selling along of semen from A2 bulls, so the process probably already started.

[tzbang]

I wonder how long it would take for all cows in NZ to be A2?
If that were to happen ATM would no longer be special - all NZ milk and milk products would be A2 - ganme over for ATM?

ATM would still have a significant piece of the market pie and if everyone is drinking A2 milk then the pie is huge.

[sb9]

Brace yourself for sector contagion as across the ditch, Bellamy's have their ASM today and their guidance was poor as per below...

"Oct 24 (Reuters) - Bellamy's Australia Ltd (BAL (https://hotcopper.com.au/asx/bal)) expects its 2019 first-half sales to fall in a range of 10 percent to 15 percent from a year ago, Chief Executive Officer Andrew Cohen said at an annual general meeting on Wednesday.
The CEO of the infant formula maker, which still awaits a crucial permit to sell its products in Chinese stores, also sees its full year Australian label revenue growth at the lower end of its previously stated zero to 10 percent range."

[petty]

"Brace yourself for sector contagion as across the ditch, Bellamy's have their ASM today and their guidance was poor as per below.."

Maybe... I think the key difference here is that Bellamy's don't yet have a permit to sell in Chinese stores. A permit A2 has through Synlait. Rightly or wrongly Jayne has been quite critical of the Bellamy's model and I think that A2's multi channel approach reduces the risk.

The impact of new ecommerce regulations will be interesting. My view is that A2 first half results will be really solid with the impact (if any) of new regulations occuring in the second half of the year.

[sb9]

Maybe... I think the key difference here is that Bellamy's don't yet have a permit to sell in Chinese stores. A permit A2 has through Synlait. Rightly or wrongly Jayne has been quite critical of the Bellamy's model and I think that A2's multi channel approach reduces the risk.

The impact of new ecommerce regulations will be interesting. My view is that A2 first half results will be really solid with the impact (if any) of new regulations occuring in the second half of the year.

I do hope so but there's a pesky element that exists on ASX called "Shorters" ​and they won't spare unfortunately.

[dobby41]

ATM would still have a significant piece of the market pie and if everyone is drinking A2 milk then the pie is huge.

At the moment there is a pie (milk) and sub-pie (A2 milk).
ATM have a significant piece of the A2 milk pie but are really small players in the milk pie - and that is the only pie that there would be.
Their differentiator would be gone.
May be a wee ways away but likely to happen.

I understand way back when A2 was the normal milk and A1 came about as a mutation that seemed to become the prevalent type.

[petty]

I know nothing about shorters, rightly or wrongly. Im 30 and hold investments with retirement in mind so I'm not too worried by the volatility created by traders. I see the main risk to A2 share price in the near term is wider sharemarket PE retraction which will hit higher growth stocks more heavily and or recession due to global factors (brexit/tradewars). Over time Im comfortable with my holding size and will only exit if dynamics for A2 change. These could be competition, IP loss, regulation changes etc.

[sb9]

I know nothing about shorters, rightly or wrongly. Im 30 and hold investments with retirement in mind so I'm not too worried by the volatility created by traders. I see the main risk to A2 share price in the near term is wider sharemarket PE retraction which will hit higher growth stocks more heavily and or recession due to global factors (brexit/tradewars). Over time Im comfortable with my holding size and will only exit if dynamics for A2 change. These could be competition, IP loss, regulation changes etc.

Long term no issues here, just brace short term volatility.

Seems as though A2 is pretty resilient in first few minutes of open on ASX, so may be this time its different.

[tzbang]

At the moment there is a pie (milk) and sub-pie (A2 milk).
ATM have a significant piece of the A2 milk pie but are really small players in the milk pie - and that is the only pie that there would be.
Their differentiator would be gone.
May be a wee ways away but likely to happen.

But by then they wouldn't necessarily need a differentiator.
As everyone is slowly moving to make A2 milk pies alongside their normal pies - they massively boost awareness and promotion of the a2 milk pie.
ATM are ready to benefit from this from being significantly ahead of everyone else. So although they start to share the a2 milk pie, the pie is getting larger by the year.
By the time there are no normal pies being made ATM's market share could be massive.

[Leftfield]

I know nothing about shorters, rightly or wrongly. Im 30 and hold investments with retirement in mind so I'm not too worried by the volatility created by traders. I see the main risk to A2 share price in the near term is wider sharemarket PE retraction which will hit higher growth stocks more heavily and or recession due to global factors (brexit/tradewars). Over time Im comfortable with my holding size and will only exit if dynamics for A2 change. These could be competition, IP loss, regulation changes etc.

You're on track. It's about time in the market, not short term timing the market with this gem.

I've been in ATM since 2014 and have seen shorters come and go. I've seen fearsome comparisons to BAL come and go. Fears of China regulation come and go etc..

The big picture is that in FY18 ATM sales grew 68% to $923 mill. Net P was up 116% to $196 mill and Cash on Hand was up 131% to $231 mill.

For FY19 if revenue increases at a slower pace (say) 40% ATM's revenue could reach $1.3 b, Net P and Cash on Hand could double. (DYOR) There are few other NZX companies that offer this potential.

The next update will provide info to assess progress to these goals, and until then all else is just speculation.

[minimoke]

I wonder how long it would take for all cows in NZ to be A2?
Latest article I read which is referenced in this thread estimated 10 years

[dobby41]

But by then they wouldn't necessarily need a differentiator.
As everyone is slowly moving to make A2 milk pies alongside their normal pies - they massively boost awareness and promotion of the a2 milk pie.
ATM are ready to benefit from this from being significantly ahead of everyone else. So although they start to share the a2 milk pie, the pie is getting larger by the year.
By the time there are no normal pies being made ATM's market share could be massive.

I think you miss my point - in the end there would be only 1 pie - the milk pie (which is now all A2) - ATM would then be a minnow with nothing to differentiate them.

[dobby41]

Latest article I read which is referenced in this thread estimated 10 years

Thanks - food for thought, though 10 years is a long time and anything can happen.

[Balance]

I think you miss my point - in the end there would be only 1 pie - the milk pie (which is now all A2) - ATM would then be a minnow with nothing to differentiate them.

That's a bit like saying that in the end, there is only the Cola market and Coca-Cola would then be a minnow etc etc.

Never ever under-estimate first mover advantage when cemented in.

[Nasi Goreng]

Thanks - food for thought, though 10 years is a long time and anything can happen.

Sure can, so 37 years (PE) must be a really really long time

[Muppett]

That's a bit like saying that in the end, there is only the Cola market and Coca-Cola would then be a minnow etc etc.

Never ever under-estimate first mover advantage when cemented in.

How can a cow be cemented in?
Long term little upside for ATM.

[Lewylewylewy]

I think in the future, you will only be able to buy a2 milk, but not from atm necessarily.

[Baa_Baa]

Notice of AGM, chance for shareholders to vote for the Directors and a big fat 50% increase in non-exec director fees. https://www.nzx.com/announcements/325724

[couta1]

Notice of AGM, chance for shareholders to vote for the Directors and a big fat 50% increase in non-exec director fees. https://www.nzx.com/announcements/325724 I'm sure the Troughers will be squealing in anticipatory delight.

[waikare]

Plus voting I also will be exercising my right to ask questions, particularly those who hocked off their shares.

[Leftfield]

SML update up to 25% increase in IF production FY19.
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/SML/325749/289155.pdf

[allfromacell]

SML update up to 25% increase in IF production FY19.
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/SML/325749/289155.pdf


This isn't new news to the market and the forecast was included in the last SML results. The market was a little underwhelmed with this though, hopefully it's a conservative forecast.

[sb9]

This isn't new news to the market and the forecast was included in the last SML results. The market was a little underwhelmed with this though, hopefully it's a conservative forecast.

Change of ship captains at ATM and SML so far haven't done any wonders for both companies from shareholders point of view. Hard to replicate the winning combo of Babidge and Penno, not yet though, time will tell.

[Muppett]

Hopefully when the Aussie opens, the SP will get mauled.

[Sideshow Bob]

Hopefully when the Aussie opens, the SP will get mauled.

Waiting for your entry price Muppett??

[Balance]

Waiting for your entry price Muppett??

Plenty of shor tcoverings today to lock in profits. Unlikely any mauling!

[Muppett]

Waiting for your entry price Muppett??

I am.
Sold the lot when SP in the low $11.
Now need to get back in before the AGM, hopefully towards the bottom of the $9.00-9.50 range.

[Muppett]

Plenty of shor tcoverings today to lock in profits. Unlikely any mauling!

Good day to buy then?
How do work out / know the specifics of as you say: "plenty of short coverings today..."

[sb9]

Plenty of shor tcoverings today to lock in profits. Unlikely any mauling!

Yep, cover old positions opened at higher price to lock in profits and be ready to pounce again when another opportunity arrives later on....

[Balance]

Good day to buy then?
How do work out / know the specifics of as you say: "plenty of short coverings today..."

Good day to sell!

Wait for them to cover and then, they will short again.

Record number of short positions in ATM as of last night, I understand.

[Lego_Man]

Plenty of shor tcoverings today to lock in profits. Unlikely any mauling!

You've hit the nail on the head in terms of the important role of shorters in a market.

Shorters actually add liquidity to a market; to de-risk and take profits they need to buy back the stock, providing a counterbalance to a selling wave which is initiated and maintained by liquidating longs. Ironically shorters can actually help to prevent price undershoots, although many will actually find that concept counterintuitive.

Unless a participant believes A2 is worth zero (i.e. fraud), they will have a price target where the risk/reward of staying short doesn't make sense. Whatever that point is, it means that there is some fundamental floor under the share price where there will be a mass buyback of short positions. Which then puts the onus back on the longs to put their money where their mouth is, and move the price upwards again via organic demand. That's the beauty of a free and competitive market.

[Patient Panda]

I quite enjoy the shorters causing so much volatility. Got another bargain purchase this morning and will be looking for more in the future.

The shorters could be in for a shock when many longtermers purchase at these very attractive prices. Lower supply for them to cover just means a bigger squeeze.

As always buying with steady hands for the longterm at good prices is always a recipe for good results

[777]

Just did my voting for AGM online. Voted against all current directors up for re election.

[Muppett]

Just did my voting for AGM online. Voted against all current directors up for re election.

I like it.
The Trougher is seeking election to the Board. Maybe she doesn't get on!

[minimoke]

I like it.
The Trougher is seeking election to the Board. Maybe she doesn't get on!
The larger the company the less the need for a CEO to be a Director. She has shown a lack of foresight with the sale of 100% of her shares which ought to put her CEO job at risk. This instantly disqualifies her for consideration for a Board position. The money aside (how big a deck has she got) she should not need a Director role - she should recognize her CEO role should consume 100% of her business attention. If she has spare time she should take a pro-rata drop in CEO rem.

[Muppett]

The larger the company the less the need for a CEO to be a Director. She has shown a lack of foresight with the sale of 100% of her shares which ought to put her CEO job at risk. This instantly disqualifies her for consideration for a Board position. The money aside (how big a deck has she got) she should not need a Director role - she should recognize her CEO role should consume 100% of her business attention. If she has spare time she should take a pro-rata drop in CEO rem.

I stand corrected, but I am pretty sure it was stated a couple of days ago in an AGM resolution to the market/shareholders for the forthcoming AGM that the Trougher has the full backing of all current Board members in seeking election to the Board as a Director. If passed, she will be a Managing Director and CEO.

[minimoke]

Question for the agm. Is the CEO role a full or part time position?

[couta1]

Just did my voting for AGM online. Voted against all current directors up for re election. Ditto, felt especially good voting against the increase in Directors fees and Herd Licker.PS-Can we now have a vote on the CEO position please.

[couta1]

Question for the agm. Is the CEO role a full or part time position? Come on mini, the lady needs her tennis time.

[Muppett]

I stand somewhat corrected from my previous post:

A quote from the ATM website: "Jayne commenced as Managing Director and CEO of the Company on 16 July 2018."

So she is currently an MD and CEO but is seeking re-election (???) as an MD at the next AGM.
As already stated: she has the full support of the current Board members for this.

She is also currently a non-executive President of Tennis Australia.

[ohpark0119]

Minor holder, voted.

Yes to freeze fee and no to all. Won’t make a difference as minor holder but this is all i can do.

[minimoke]

Come on mini, the lady needs her tennis time.Too busy to take a governance role as a Director then

[minimoke]

Minor holder, voted.

Yes to freeze fee and no to all. Won’t make a difference as minor holder but this is all i can do.
Always worth voting. Gives us the moral ground to bleat.

[waikare]

The larger the company the less the need for a CEO to be a Director. She has shown a lack of foresight with the sale of 100% of her shares which ought to put her CEO job at risk. This instantly disqualifies her for consideration for a Board position. The money aside (how big a deck has she got) she should not need a Director role - she should recognize her CEO role should consume 100% of her business attention. If she has spare time she should take a pro-rata drop in CEO rem.

Couldn't agree more, she has no loyalty to the firm, being a Director and a CEO of the same company, isn't that called double dipping.

[winner69]

Couldn't agree more, she has no loyalty to the firm, being a Director and a CEO of the same company, isn't that called double dipping.

Doesn’t get Directors fees

Quite a common practice

Some companies even have the CFO on the Board

I have no issues ....a good thing

[BlackPeter]

Couldn't agree more, she has no loyalty to the firm, being a Director and a CEO of the same company, isn't that called double dipping.

Well, its definitely questionable governance. Given that the CEO reports to the board it means Ms Hrdlicka is reprorting basically into herself. I can see how this leads to very bad decisions (not for the board, but for the sharheholders). Its like using a fox (or ferret in the NZ context) to watch over your hen house ...

[dobby41]

Well, its definitely questionable governance. Given that the CEO reports to the board it means Ms Hrdlicka is reprorting basically into herself. I can see how this leads to very bad decisions (not for the board, but for the sharheholders). Its like using a fox (or ferret in the NZ context) to watch over your hen house ...

To be fair she is only one of many directors - not like she has the final say.
I'm not sure what the advantage of having the CEO as a MD also is. She should attend many, if not all, board meetings as CEO anyway - just not the same vote if she isn't a MD.

[winner69]

Greenslade of Heartland is one example of CEO also being a Director. Many others

Doesn’t seem to cause any angst

[BlackPeter]

To be fair she is only one of many directors - not like she has the final say.
I'm not sure what the advantage of having the CEO as a MD also is. She should attend many, if not all, board meetings as CEO anyway - just not the same vote if she isn't a MD.

Well, yes - that's what they always say.

In practise is it already difficult enough for a board to control a CEO who is not part of it. CEO (working full time in the business) will always have more and fresher information about said business. Board members are only working part time (for that paticular organisation) and, given that they hired the CEO in the first place have as well some emotional attachment following him/her (confirmation bias). Been there, seen that.

Having the Exec on the board just makes it harder. Obviously - it all depends on the personality of the CEO and there are exceptions, but in general does the NZSA not recommend to have the CEO as well on the board - and they should know.

[winner69]

Lewis Gardon of Fisher and Paykel Healthcare is one example of CEO also being a Director. Many other examples

Doesn’t seem to cause any angst

[BlackPeter]

Lewis Gardon of Fisher and Paykel Healthcare is one example of CEO also being a Director. Many other examples

Doesn’t seem to cause any angst

The fact that it does work in some cases does not mean it is a good idea to do so.

Many drivers used to dodge using a seat belt and most of them survived driving their car without buckling up. This fact is however no evidence, that it is a good idea not to use a seatbelt. Ask the ones who died :p;

[Sideshow Bob]

If the lights flickered at A2 HQ, then that was because I just voted against on all on principle.

That should have them shaking in their boots (not)

[Sideshow Bob]

Lewis Gardon of Fisher and Paykel Healthcare is one example of CEO also being a Director. Many other examples

Doesn’t seem to cause any angst

I think in practicality, most CEO's need to sit in on the board meetings to provide information, perspective and context to proceedings, and more of the granular detail - that the board doesn't have. Not being on the board allows the board to then remove the CEO from any particular discussion as it wishes.

I don't think it really matters, but may mean that a seat is taken by the CEO whereas could have another on the board which may offer different perspective and expertise.

[Leftfield]

I've voted in favour. (I'm not a Jane knocker. Way too early to judge her performance IMO)

[peat]

I've voted in favour. (I'm not a Jane knocker. Way too early to judge her performance IMO)

Her timing is impeccable. Much kudos lol
Nah I think it was a bit rich, but aren't we all in this for making money, which includes not losing it - so, a big round of applause - didnt she do well. Now do something equally clever for shareholders.

I hadnt really thought about the pro's/cons of duplicating roles CEO/BM as per the recent posts.
The best people in the best places where they can have the most influence is surely the idea. So if she's that good ?

[blackcap]

The fact that it does work in some cases does not mean it is a good idea to do so.

Many drivers used to dodge using a seat belt and most of them survived driving their car without buckling up. This fact is however no evidence, that it is a good idea not to use a seatbelt. Ask the ones who died :p;

It's an interesting debate. I think in the US you will find many CEO's are also the Chairman of the company (TSLA for example, well not anymore but that is another story) but I think the NZ model where the CEO is removed from the board makes more sense and is structurally better for governance.

[minimoke]

I think in practicality, most CEO's need to sit in on the board meetings to provide information, perspective and context to proceedings, and more of the granular detail - that the board doesn't have. Not being on the board allows the board to then remove the CEO from any particular discussion as it wishes.

I don't think it really matters, but may mean that a seat is taken by the CEO whereas could have another on the board which may offer different perspective and expertise.I'm a bit of a simpleton and I see the director's role as governance and strategy in the interest of the owners / shareholders. The CEO is responsible for implementing the strategy at operational level.

If CEO fails in implementation how can the board have a conversation with CEO when CEO is part of the Club.

[Patient Panda]

Greenslade of Heartland is one example of CEO also being a Director. Many others

Doesn’t seem to cause any angst


Yes and Simonn Challies / Gordon Macloud of Ryman.

I agree with winner on this. Have seen lots of examples of CEO sitting on the board with great results. Everyone and every organisation is different. They can organise however works best for them for all I care. All that matters to me is quality of management and whether I can trust them and the results they achieve. How they choose to make the magic happen is up to them.


I think I will be voting yes to all meeting resolutions except the increase in fees for which I will vote no.

[couta1]

I wouldn't compare Herd Licker and Simon Challies, Simon is a legend for all the right reasons where as the other one, well no.

[Patient Panda]

I wasn’t trying to compare them but you’re right. Definitely a pretty massive gap between the two.

A2 really needs to put a higher focus on growing their own talent. I’m not a fan of these highly paid outsiders. Rarely have I seen good value for money outcomes compared to promotion and development of inside talent.

[BlackPeter]

A2 really needs to put a higher focus on growing their own talent. I’m not a fan of these highly paid outsiders. Rarely have I seen good value for money outcomes compared to promotion and development of inside talent.

Definitely would agree with that. And maybe Mr Babbage was not such an outstanding leader as everybody seems to think? While he did clearly a pristine job in growing a startup into an enormous company - he obviously failed in growing and fostering inside the company the talent which the company now desperately would have required to replace him.

No leader is really great if they don't have as well a good succession plan.

[winner69]

I'm a bit of a simpleton and I see the director's role as governance and strategy in the interest of the owners / shareholders. The CEO is responsible for implementing the strategy at operational level.

If CEO fails in implementation how can the board have a conversation with CEO when CEO is part of the Club.

Strategy development lies with the CEO .....Board will provide insight etc ...and finally sign it off

[minimoke]

Strategy development lies with the CEO .....Board will provide insight etc ...and finally sign it offThis is what teh NZ Institute of Directors says, and they ought to know:
"Separating ownership from control
It's easy to get confused with the difference between governance and management. The board is in charge of governance of a company which seeks to ensure the smooth running of a business by making accountability and oversight the core of their workings. Governance also ensures that the business has a future-facing strategic plan.
This is where management comes in. They take the strategic plan and work to implement it into the day-to-day operations of the company.
Both roles are vital and complementary.
The difference can get blurred with SME's when:


there are only one or two directors
the same directors are founders
these directors also manage the day-to-day operations.

Which hat to wear?
Executive directors need to think about the hat they have on:


for operational aspects an executive director wears the management hat
for board meetings, an executive director will need to switch to the more strategic cap (ie governance).

This is where an independent director can help guide your board discussion, and make this delineation clearer."

[Ggcc]

I've voted in favour. (I'm not a Jane knocker. Way too early to judge her performance IMO)
I voted against. She was far too early in her position to sell her shares for my liking

[winner69]

Mini - from that bit you quoted from NZIM — Governance also ensures that the business has a future-facing strategic plan.

Betcha Boards don’t generally develop that strategic plan — they should provide insights etc in its development — as it says their governance role is to ensure a strategic plan exists (review, challenging and signing it off)

[minimoke]

Mini - from that bit you quoted from NZIM — Governance also ensures that the business has a future-facing strategic plan.Thats becasue the Board should be deve;loping it and then making sure it is being implemented. Thats what Board reports do - the operational reporting against strategy and compliance etc


Betcha Boards don’t generally develop that strategic plan — they should provide insights etc in its development — You might be right - but doesnt make it right. Company employees from CEO down are operational management with authorities originally delegated by teh Board.

as it says their governance role is to ensure a strategic plan exists (review, challenging and signing it off)Thats what a Board gets paid for - using their skill and experience to develop a plan. A different set of skills for an operations CEO / Management. Of course the CEO will be one source of advice to the Board. Look at the money Boards receive as Rem - they dont get that for just sitting in a meeting for a few hours once every few months if they can be bothered turning up. Remember - they are the Owners / Shareholders representatives - they are there to figure out the long term strategy. If the Owners dont like the strategy being developed or the Boards governance / oversight in getting the strategy done the Board is at risk of loosing the trough.

[Sideshow Bob]

Mr Woodford's latest article re A2

https://issuu.com/farmersweeklynz/docs/farmers_weekly_29-10_issuu/2?ff&e=30768707/65384671

Page 26

[Valuegrowth]

https://nz.finance.yahoo.com/news/kind-investor-owns-most-a2-000708190.html

[minimoke]

Be still my beating heart. ATM above $10.00

[allfromacell]

Be still my beating heart. ATM above $10.00

The 40 odd million shorts probably looking to start covering. Just 15 trading days until the AGM, wouldn't wanna be short heading into that.

[Balance]

Be still my beating heart. ATM above $10.00

Seen the amount of ATM shorted? Over 5% of the issued capital.

Going to have to be some aggressive short covering if markets turn even slightly positive!

The last time >5% of ATM shorted was in Feb 2017 and the shorters were burnt something horrible as ATM as the sp doubled and doubled again before they covered their shorts!

[minimoke]

Going to have to be some aggressive short covering if markets turn even slightly positive!SML starting to move up as well.

[Balance]

The 40 odd million shorts probably looking to start covering. Just 15 trading days until the AGM, wouldn't wanna be short heading into that.

Holders are not prepared to sell down from current levels, it seems so the shorters are going to have to pay up to cover before AGM.

Share buyback announcement to encourage some action?

[whatsup]

Holders are not prepared to sell down from current levels, it seems so the shorters are going to have to pay up to cover before AGM.

Share buyback announcement to encourage some action?

GOODIE Xs two !!

[Ggcc]

Holders are not prepared to sell down from current levels, it seems so the shorters are going to have to pay up to cover before AGM.

Share buyback announcement to encourage some action?
Maybe buying more of Synlait at discounted prices??

[Balance]

Maybe buying more of Synlait at discounted prices??

Could well be.

My pick is that the Board has been sufficiently castigated in recent times for various 'poor' decisions to spend a few $$$ on appeasing shareholders at the AGM.

[Ggcc]

Now it’s roaring on the ASX

[Balance]

Now it’s roaring on the ASX

Our postings here have had the desired effect? :D

[fudoc5]

9 news did a good coverage today of the IF frenzy going on, focused on A2:

https://www.9news.com.au/national/2018/10/30/11/38/baby-formula-melbourne-mum-drives-until-midnight-searching-for-formula#

[couta1]

Now it’s roaring on the ASX Burn baby burn, shorter inferno.:eek2:

[Baa_Baa]

Burn baby burn, shorter inferno.:eek2:

Spot the squeeze (1 minute chart today)? Smell of burning shorts in the air. Lol. Cool to have some levity after an otherwise rather disappointing few weeks coinciding with the globals getting the jitters. Anyway, there's been some cracker buying opportunities imho and notwithstanding a further rout on the big bourses tonight, we might see ATM playing catch up tomorrow. Would be nice to see A2M continue the rush.

10111

[Ggcc]

Burn baby burn, shorter inferno.:eek2:
I must admit it is great watching the share price rise for a change.

[Balance]

Burn baby burn, shorter inferno.:eek2:

40m shorted - that’s $20m burnt on today’s sp rise!

[tipsy]

9 news did a good coverage today of the IF frenzy going on, focused on A2:

https://www.9news.com.au/national/2018/10/30/11/38/baby-formula-melbourne-mum-drives-until-midnight-searching-for-formula#

Pretty crazy, there's not a lot of consumer products around with that sort of demand.

[Baa_Baa]

Pretty crazy, there's not a lot of consumer products around with that sort of demand.

That's the nub of it, need to ramp supply to meet demand and this will be a moonshot, even from here. They get that, the pathway to untold riches is securing supply while meeting demand. Easier said than done, but history shows they're more than capable. The reason I'm a buyer while prices are gifting an entry/top up.

[Joshuatree]

Ive read somewhere that ATM is being taken to court in the USA over its beneficial A2 protein claims. cant find the link atp.

[Ggcc]

https://www.radionz.co.nz/news/national/369794/milk-firm-rejects-false-ad-challenge-by-us-competitors
I think that was the link. It sounds like sour grapes and may work to benefit A2. Any advertising is good advertising

[minimoke]

Oz closed at NZD equivalent of $10.51. Hopefully we see the start of teh month with a positive day

[Leftfield]

Oz closed at NZD equivalent of $10.51. Hopefully we see the start of teh month with a positive day

My new slogan - "ATM the gift that keeps giving....." ;)

[Ggcc]

Oz closed at NZD equivalent of $10.51. Hopefully we see the start of teh month with a positive day
You must be keen to get your shirt back... I got all of my clothes back yesterday, but would love a new jacket

[couta1]

My new slogan - "ATM the gift that keeps giving....." ;) A money making machine for all this stock, shorters, traders whether they be of the day/swing or positional variety and of course the longs who have probably made more than any of the others.

[Balance]

40m shorted - that’s $20m burnt on today’s sp rise!

US market up so far so some shorters will be looking to close position today to avoid further margin calls and lock in gains, or cut losses.

[silu]

Ive read somewhere that ATM is being taken to court in the USA over its beneficial A2 protein claims. cant find the link atp.

The Streisand effect. Love it.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Streisand_effect

[minimoke]

You must be keen to get your shirt back... I got all of my clothes back yesterday, but would love a new jacketI've made enough for a new pair of Stubbies. Hopefully the shirt comes today.

[minimoke]

Oz closed at NZD equivalent of $10.51. Hopefully we see the start of teh month with a positive dayAnd we open today at 10.52. Noice!

[longy]

Hello fellas. A bit off topic but does any know normally how do the accountants work out profit and loss in share trading? Do they go via the trading account such open balance and close balance for a year or do they comb through all the transaction? Thanks in advance.

[couta1]

Hello fellas. A bit off topic but does any know normally how do the accountants work out profit and loss in share trading? Do they go via the trading account such open balance and close balance for a year or do they comb through all the transaction? Thanks in advance. You would go through all the transactions using either the average cost basis or specific lot. In the US they use six different methods of calculation and can change between them.PS-You don't need a separate trading account just for frequent trades.

[longy]

You would go through all the transactions using either the average cost basis or specific lot. In the US they use six different methods of calculation and can change between them.PS-You don't need a separate trading account just for frequent trades.

Average cost basis meaning group the purchases of the shares say A2 then minus the share sold in that year?

[couta1]

Average cost basis meaning group the purchases of the shares say A2 then minus the share sold in that year? Average cost is simply the average price of all your buys and or sells for the total number of shares in any stock you hold, think of it as a running total.

[longy]

Average cost is simply the average price of all your buys and or sells for the total number of shares in any stock you hold, think of it as a running total.

Thanks Couta1!

[Muppett]

Thanks Couta1!

If you are a trader, Couta1's advise is incorrect.
You do not and should not average the price.
Send me a private message and I'll explain it. It's simple but too lengthy for a message post on here.

[couta1]

If you are a trader, Couta1's advise is incorrect.
You do not and should not average the price.
Send me a private message and I'll explain it. It's simple but too lengthy for a message post on here. Sorry but it is not incorrect, if you are buying and selling continuously then your average price is constantly changing so unless you can isolate a trading parcel as a specific lot then you would use the average cost method.PS-Either method is fine in different circumstances.

[winner69]

Hello fellas. A bit off topic but does any know normally how do the accountants work out profit and loss in share trading? Do they go via the trading account such open balance and close balance for a year or do they comb through all the transaction? Thanks in advance.

Look what you done now Longy ....caused a raucous on this thread anybody can agree

Must have been a hard question and maybe not one correct answer

[couta1]

Look what you done now Longy ....caused a raucous on this thread anybody can agree

Must have been a hard question and maybe not one correct answer Or we could make it a bit more complicated and throw in the following methods, FIFO(First in first off) LIFO(Last in first off) Highest cost method or Lowest cost method.Lol

[winner69]

Or we could make it a bit more complicated and throw in the following methods, FIFO(First in first off) LIFO(Last in first off) Highest cost method or Lowest cost method.Lol

Must be more Couts ......and I hope whatever method longy uses it balances with his trading account and cash book at the end of the year

[longy]

Look what you done now Longy ....caused a raucous on this thread anybody can agree

Must have been a hard question and maybe not one correct answer

Wasn't meant to. :) I did not know making a buck or two could be so complicated. I think just hand everything over the accountants and they could sort it out then... but it seems silly to do that without doing some investigation into it.

[minimoke]

Wasn't meant to. :) I did not know making a buck or two could be so complicated. I think just hand everything over the accountants and they could sort it out then... but it seems silly to do that without doing some investigation into it.Have you seen what accountants charge? They dont get to live in flash mansions and drive exotic cars for no good reason. Accounting charges, along with taxes are good reasons to stay as an "investor" rather than a "trader" in my books.

[Yoda]

I think most accountants do first in first out basis. Sharesight does that for you

[winner69]

Wasn't meant to. :) I did not know making a buck or two could be so complicated. I think just hand everything over the accountants and they could sort it out then... but it seems silly to do that without doing some investigation into it.

Good you want to do things properly as well as understand it all.

Do you keep all your share trading activities completely seperate from your other finances?

[Timesurfer]

I tried to figure out what ASB were doing to give me my balances, and after some discussion if I understood them correctly they follow Couta's running average theorum. What was really confusing was when I sold out of one share then bought back in at a later stage and discovered that they keep the running average despite the zeroing out in the middle.

[longy]

Have you seen what accountants charge? They dont get to live in flash mansions and drive exotic cars for no good reason. Accounting charges, along with taxes are good reasons to stay as an "investor" rather than a "trader" in my books.

Yeah... I think the bill is going to be a fat one. With some luck this Govt would leave the capital gain tax alone for a while... If they have their ways, I feel it makes no difference to weather you are investors or traders. I think tax shall be paid on any gain. Finger cross.

[couta1]

I tried to figure out what ASB were doing to give me my balances, and after some discussion if I understood them correctly they follow Couta's running average theorum. What was really confusing was when I sold out of one share then bought back in at a later stage and discovered that they keep the running average despite the zeroing out in the middle. I think you will find that what has been kept is just a transactional history of your previous movements in the stock you sold out of but have consequently repurchased, previous running average should not be added to your new position. PS-Have never used ASB only ANZ.

[pg0220]

Or we could make it a bit more complicated and throw in the following methods, FIFO(First in first off) LIFO(Last in first off) Highest cost method or Lowest cost method.Lol
Yeah I thought it wouldn’t matter which if FIFO, LIFO or WACC you use as long as you keep consistent over periods. I heard LIFO is not allowed in US (from a uni lecture) but LIFO is also allowed in NZ. For simplicity it would FIFO that may be preferred in retail business but WACC may work too if you choose so?

[Snow Leopard]

As this thread is supposed to be about A2 milk I will limit my comments with regards to the cost accounting to the fact that most of what has been written here is complete and utter rubbish and is best ignored.

DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH !

[couta1]

As this thread is supposed to be about A2 milk I will limit my comments with regards to the cost accounting to the fact that most of what has been written here is complete and utter rubbish and is best ignored.

DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH ! A condescending post with no substance.Lol

[Jay]

I think you will find that what has been kept is just a transactional history of your previous movements in the stock you sold out of but have consequently repurchased, previous running average should not be added to your new position. PS-Have never used ASB only ANZ.

Yes you are right they do, so if you made a profit of say $1000 in trade 1, then a loss of $250 in trade 2 it will show a profit of $750 even if it spans financial years.
I just use a spreadsheet to keep track of each trade.

[petty]

Happy if we rip back over to a2 team? While this is worthwhile discussion there must be another thread for this?

[sb9]

Happy if we rip back over to a2 team? While this is worthwhile discussion there must be another thread for this?

My thoughts too, pls don't hijack this thread from main point of discussion which is A2.

[longy]

Thanks folks for your input re Tax and trading. It seemed there are quite a few approaches to it and we could go on and on but at the end of the day the tax guys and gals agree to what approach one should use. Thanks gain for the contributions from some of you and I kindly ask your fellas to leave this subject to rest on this thread and lets resume to discuss A2 shall we.

[petty]

I discussed A2 last night with the lead of a fund manager re a2.


a) He visited Jayne for a 1;1 and is buying the explanation but ultimately agreed it's always hard to know for sure. She asked for cash, board said no, board offered shares.
b) He also mentioned that with his 1:1 with the chairman was pretty direct in his acknowledgement of the balls up.
c) He outliend that market data is really strong locally and the multi channel approach and relabelling have been a success.
d) He outliend that Jayne is really focussed on US and expects strong growth in this market with a possible IF announcement. (Maybe AGM?)

No dynamites here but thought Id share all the same.

[Sideshow Bob]

I discussed A2 last night with the lead of a fund manager re a2.


a) He visited Jayne for a 1;1 and is buying the explanation but ultimately agreed it's always hard to know for sure. She asked for cash, board said no, board offered shares.
b) He also mentioned that with his 1:1 with the chairman was pretty direct in his acknowledgement of the balls up.
c) He outliend that market data is really strong locally and the multi channel approach and relabelling have been a success.
d) He outliend that Jayne is really focussed on US and expects strong growth in this market with a possible IF announcement. (Maybe AGM?)

No dynamites here but thought Id share all the same.

Thanks Petty. Interesting update and appears the trajectory is continue in some form. Time for the Board and CEO to put the issues behind them and focus on the business.

[sb9]

I discussed A2 last night with the lead of a fund manager re a2.


a) He visited Jayne for a 1;1 and is buying the explanation but ultimately agreed it's always hard to know for sure. She asked for cash, board said no, board offered shares.
b) He also mentioned that with his 1:1 with the chairman was pretty direct in his acknowledgement of the balls up.
c) He outliend that market data is really strong locally and the multi channel approach and relabelling have been a success.
d) He outliend that Jayne is really focussed on US and expects strong growth in this market with a possible IF announcement. (Maybe AGM?)

No dynamites here but thought Id share all the same.

Thanks a lot for the snippets, I would expect sp to rally from hereon until ASM as shorts would be starting to cover big time. And depending on ASM presentation and outlook, they'll reassess their new positions.

[silu]

ICYMI

The Today programme on 9 ran an investigative report of the hordes of Daigou buyers snapping up infant formula in Australian supermarkets and the outrage from locals. A2 featured heavily https://www.9news.com.au/national/2018/10/30/11/38/baby-formula-melbourne-mum-drives-until-midnight-searching-for-formula

A2 in its wisdom have started now to direct sell their infant formula to the public so they can reserve their favourite A2 Platinum formula https://a2store.com.au/

Great little work of positive marketing from the A2 team in Australia.

[Leftfield]

ICYMI

The Today programme on 9 ran an investigative report of the hordes of Daigou buyers snapping up infant formula in Australian supermarkets and the outrage from locals. A2 featured heavily https://www.9news.com.au/national/2018/10/30/11/38/baby-formula-melbourne-mum-drives-until-midnight-searching-for-formula
A2 in its wisdom have started now to direct sell their infant formula to the public so they can reserve their favourite A2 Platinum formula https://a2store.com.au/
Great little work of positive marketing from the A2 team in Australia.

Thanks for posting these links Silu - great endorsements of A2.

[Valiant]

I discussed A2 last night with the lead of a fund manager re a2.


a) He visited Jayne for a 1;1 and is buying the explanation but ultimately agreed it's always hard to know for sure. She asked for cash, board said no, board offered shares.
b) He also mentioned that with his 1:1 with the chairman was pretty direct in his acknowledgement of the balls up.
c) He outliend that market data is really strong locally and the multi channel approach and relabelling have been a success.
d) He outliend that Jayne is really focussed on US and expects strong growth in this market with a possible IF announcement. (Maybe AGM?)

No dynamites here but thought Id share all the same.


Thanks for the intel Petty.

[steveb]

Am I reading right only 40k of shares changed hands today.What has happened to the liquidity?

[Balance]

Am I reading right only 40k of shares changed hands today.What has happened to the liquidity?

Don't even bother to look at the depth in NZ now - ATM is 100% driven out of ASX.

NZX is but a shunting exchange where ATM shares are bought and sent over to ASX.

Soon to be like Xero - all listed on ASX only.

[Leftfield]

Am I reading right only 40k of shares changed hands today.What has happened to the liquidity?

Why would holders want to be selling? :t_up:
(besides, Balance is right, the ASX is driving NZX )

[steveb]

Why would holders want to be selling? :t_up:
(besides, Balance is right, the ASX is driving NZX )
Holders wouldn't but traders would and there are quite a few traders out there

[minimoke]

Don't even bother to look at the depth in NZ now - ATM is 100% driven out of ASX.

NZX is but a shunting exchange where ATM shares are bought and sent over to ASX.

Soon to be like Xero - all listed on ASX only.Just a snapshot. $6.3m traded so far today on NZX. $27.3mon the ASX

[Ggcc]

A positive ASX finish $10.83nz tomorrow

[Balance]

Just a snapshot. $6.3m traded so far today on NZX. $27.3mon the ASX

And 75% of NZX trades are ATM shares being shunted to and fro from ASX.

[Balance]

A positive ASX finish $10.83nz tomorrow

A$10 break out.

Shorting activity (shorts & covering shorts) still accounted for over 50% of trades yesterday!

[minimoke]

A positive ASX finish $10.83nz tomorrow
And SML finished at $.82. Might be time for creamy treats tomorrow night!

[see weed]

Any predictions for 20/11/18...... maybe 950m rev and 200m profit?

[silu]

Any predictions for 20/11/18...... maybe 950m rev and 200m profit?

Is that in AUD?

[sb9]

Any predictions for 20/11/18...... maybe 950m rev and 200m profit?

Well if those number are for first 4 months trading of FY19 :scared:, I'll be ecstatic as sp would be at least $30...:t_up:

[silu]

Well if those number are for first 4 months trading of FY19 :scared:, I'll be ecstatic as sp would be at least $30...:t_up:

Can I already tell my boss to stuff it? ;)

[minimoke]

Can I already tell my boss to stuff it? ;)down another 3% so far today. I wouldn't be saying anything to the bos.

[Beagle]

down another 3% so far today. I wouldn't be saying anything to the bos.

This seems to be going nowhere fast...and to think all the way back in February 2018 it got to about $14.60 intraday...(sigh)
Shareholders have some serious wounds to lick.

[allfromacell]

Aus started selling pretty much as soon as President Xi Jinping's speech commenced. Not sure what was said just yet but perhaps something the market didn't like.

[minimoke]

This seems to be going nowhere fast...and to think all the way back in February 2018 it got to about $14.60 intraday...(sigh)
Shareholders have some serious wounds to lick.Not helped by the lack of news. A couple of months ago we heard about the-commerce law change with a grace period expiring 31 December. We are half way there now and no information to give us comfort.

[minimoke]

Aus started selling pretty much as soon as President Xi Jinping's speech commenced. Not sure what was said just yet but perhaps something the market didn't like.He was speaking at the Import Expo and seems to be saying China is open to free trade and welcomes imports with lower tariffs. Good news for ATM I would have thought. (I wonder if ATM is one for the 3,600 exhibitors at the expo. Given the lack of news I suspect not.)

[bull....]

there was china growth figures out today , very marked slow down compared to last mth

[Patient Panda]

down another 3% so far today. I wouldn't be saying anything to the bos.


And hopefully its down another 3% tomorrow. Its a big gift before the AGM :)

[couta1]

Good volatile 68c spread for the day, shorters have a short window open to get out of jail before the SP increase leading up to the AGM on the 20th, they won't want to bet their shirts on what's going to be said on that day.

[bull....]

i doubt they will give a yearly forecast as they dont know the new regs yet , only be how the current yr to date is going.

[Muppett]

there was china growth figures out today , very marked slow down compared to last mth

China growth slowing down as was Alibaba profits, as reported over the weekend.
Chinese consumer has little money to spend.

[couta1]

i doubt they will give a yearly forecast as they dont know the new regs yet , only be how the current yr to date is going. YTD will be good plus plenty of other goodies could be mentioned, too much risk for savvy shorters.PS-Looks like NZ punters got a bit too negative with their $10.15 close.

[minimoke]

PS-Looks like NZ punters got a bit too negative with their $10.15 close.They over cooked SML as well. Hopefully a better day tomorrow

[Leftfield]

YTD will be good plus plenty of other goodies could be mentioned, too much risk for savvy shorters.PS-Looks like NZ punters got a bit too negative with their $10.15 close.

Nice to see some uprating of A2's SP possibly influenced by;

1.) A2's CEO attending/addressing China's International Import/Export talkfest
2.) Encouraging words re free trade and imports from China's leader Xi at the same meeting
3.) Encouraging news of huge pre-orders of A2 IF ahead of the 11/11 one-day sale

All bodes well for the next update.

[minimoke]

3.) Encouraging news of huge pre-orders of A2 IF ahead of the 11/11 one-day sale

All bodes well for the next update.
This was teh news this time last year.http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/201711/22/WS5a276a3ba3107865316d3993.html

its looking liek 11/11 could really be quite spectacular this year.

Roll on to tehe other day and Ozzie mums arent happy. https://www.nutraingredients-asia.com/Article/2018/10/31/Don-t-blame-daigou-blame-brands-Formula-firms-urged-to-explore-new-retail-channels-in-Australia-amid-shortage-complaints

[Timesurfer]

Sam Tretheway (https://milfordasset.com/insights/what-do-new-chinese-e-commerce-laws-mean-for-a2-milk) from Milford on A2

[minimoke]

Sam Tretheway (https://milfordasset.com/insights/what-do-new-chinese-e-commerce-laws-mean-for-a2-milk) from Milford on A2
Sales and volume holding up. Volume in China is increasing, E Commerce very important platform. No issue with English Language labels going into China, Trying to diversify across as many platforms as possible to de-risk regulations. Milford took profit at peak. Seem to be winning market share in China. E-commerce regs are major risk - they need to show that it is managed.

[minimoke]

ATM (And SML) continue with their extreme volatility. No rhyme or reason, just mayhem. I'm only glad I bought when I did - still hanging on as hard as I can. Only a few more days until 11/11 sales and then a few more for the AGM. Hopefully after that things will settle to an acceptable steady upwards trajectory.


It's all so weird. I cant think of one single other product or service where supply cannot meet demand to the extent that people are hunting out truck delivery schedules so they can be first at a supermarket shelf on opening.

[Leftfield]

It's all so weird. I cant think of one single other product or service where supply cannot meet demand to the extent that people are hunting out truck delivery schedules so they can be first at a supermarket shelf on opening.

Not so weird if you have experienced A1 related digestive issues.

As an A1 milk digestive sufferer I understand and can appreciate the loyalty A2 attracts. This loyalty is even more so for Asian/Indian/Middle Eastern and Southern European consumers who are more prone to A1 related digestive issues.

This knowledge also makes me appreciate that the recent threat of A2's 'misleading claims and advertising' by the entrenched USA A1 producers, is going to struggle.

[44wishlists]

Well I'll be a monkeys ar..hole. Burnt again. Thought I would be a smart a..se and buy at 11.55am before Aussi open at $10.40. Another lesson not learned, again.:t_down:

You're not alone!! I bought a truck load at $10.41

[couta1]

You're not alone!! I bought a truck load at $10.41 No worries, very difficult to know how far down or up this pup will go on any given day, I chased it down starting at $10.50 and ended at $10.06.Could be the last shake out before the climb leading to the AGM.PS-Still plenty of shorters in action on Mon/Tues.

[44wishlists]

One of the reasons that I bought this morning because in the past week, I see A2 IF milks are flying off the shelves in a large supermarket in Hong Kong, (To be exact, it's Taste at Festival Walk, Kowloon Tong, a popular shopping mall for mainlanders). Although I m not there 24/7, talking to stuffs and they said they just couldn't keep up with the demands leading up to the 11.11 event.

[Sideshow Bob]

I think it is about time to talk to my freight contact and see what SML are doing. Last time I asked about it (some while ago), they were airfreighting A2 IF constantly, rather than the cheaper seafreight, due to stocks and keeping up with demand.

[Beagle]

ATM (And SML) continue with their extreme volatility. No rhyme or reason, just mayhem. I'm only glad I bought when I did - still hanging on as hard as I can. Only a few more days until 11/11 sales and then a few more for the AGM. Hopefully after that things will settle to an acceptable steady upwards trajectory.


It's all so weird. I cant think of one single other product or service where supply cannot meet demand to the extent that people are hunting out truck delivery schedules so they can be first at a supermarket shelf on opening.

Remember years ago the mayhem and queues when Apple released a new I Phone ? Settled down much more these days because in many ways Samsung make a better product. Hope Nestle don't turn out to be to ATM what Samsung is to Apple :eek2:

[couta1]

Remember years ago the mayhem and queues when Apple released a new I Phone ? Settled down much more these days because in many ways Samsung make a better product. Hope Nestle don't turn out to be to ATM what Samsung is to Apple :eek2:The A2 pie is of an ever increasing size so plenty of room for other players, A2 is the future of milk or should I say back to the future considering all cows were originally A2 milk producers.PS-Nestle have a lot of reputational damage to tidy up in China.Lol

[Balance]

Remember years ago the mayhem and queues when Apple released a new I Phone ? Settled down much more these days because in many ways Samsung make a better product. Hope Nestle don't turn out to be to ATM what Samsung is to Apple :eek2:

Being an insider, I can tell you that the hype was created by Apple itself. Those eager buyers queuing up overnight were all paid by Apple to do so. Standard industry trick from the American brands.

[pg0220]

Being an insider, I can tell you that the hype was created by Apple itself. Those eager buyers queuing up overnight were all paid by Apple to do so. Standard industry trick from the American brands.
Really?! :scared:

[pg0220]

Remember years ago the mayhem and queues when Apple released a new I Phone ? Settled down much more these days because in many ways Samsung make a better product. Hope Nestle don't turn out to be to ATM what Samsung is to Apple :eek2:
But it was only after a several years from the beginning where Samsung was able to take a good size of market share........ A2M should be well above Nestle at least for the next few years in this market!

[James108]

Remember years ago the mayhem and queues when Apple released a new I Phone ? Settled down much more these days because in many ways Samsung make a better product. Hope Nestle don't turn out to be to ATM what Samsung is to Apple :eek2:

I’d be happy for nestle to be Samsung if atm get to be apple!!

[Leftfield]

Being an insider, I can tell you that the hype was created by Apple itself. Those eager buyers queuing up overnight were all paid by Apple to do so. Standard industry trick from the American brands.

Crikey! Maybe A2 is paying shoppers to strip supermarket shelves of A2 IF? I can see a conspiracy theory developing.:cool:

[Snow Leopard]

Crikey! Maybe A2 is paying shoppers to strip supermarket shelves of A2 IF? I can see a conspiracy theory developing.:cool:

It is definitely true, I read that from a reliable source on a New Zealand share trading website just now :eek2:

[Baa_Baa]

I’d be happy for nestle to be Samsung if atm get to be apple!!

+1 that! ATM a Trillion dollar company! Bring that on. :D

[silu]

Hmm expected to have it open much higher today. Dow went up nicely and also read this snippet (https://www.afr.com/news/world/asia/china-signals-extention-to-crossborder-import-rules-20181009-h16e83) "China has signalled it will allow Australian infant milk and vitamins exporters more time to comply with tough new cross border e-commerce rules which was a risk to sales in their fastest-growing market. A senior official with China's Ministry of Commerce said late Wednesday that products sold online into China and through the personal shopper networks known as daigous would still be treated as "personal individual use" into next year."
I guess when the ASX opens it will go much higher. Am very positive about the 4 month update coming

[Balance]

Hmm expected to have it open much higher today. Dow went up nicely and also read this snippet (https://www.afr.com/news/world/asia/china-signals-extention-to-crossborder-import-rules-20181009-h16e83) "China has signalled it will allow Australian infant milk and vitamins exporters more time to comply with tough new cross border e-commerce rules which was a risk to sales in their fastest-growing market. A senior official with China's Ministry of Commerce said late Wednesday that products sold online into China and through the personal shopper networks known as daigous would still be treated as "personal individual use" into next year."
I guess when the ASX opens it will go much higher. Am very positive about the 4 month update coming


ATM's sp is driven out of ASX - not NZX.

NZX is but a shadow of ASX now for ATM. Until ASX sun comes out, trading in NZX on ATM is in the dark.

[minimoke]

ATM's sp is driven out of ASX - not NZX.

NZX is but a shadow of ASX now for ATM. Until ASX sun comes out, trading in NZX on ATM is in the dark.Yup - we are starting to see a bit of movement now up 3.9% on the day. But I wouldn't even consider buying / selling ATM (or SML) until mid afternoon after the ASX has opened.

[Balance]

Yup - we are starting to see a bit of movement now up 3.9% on the day. But I wouldn't even consider buying / selling ATM (or SML) until mid afternoon after the ASX has opened.

Short positions continue to be added on so someone is going to be very correct or get their tail feathers burned soon enough!

[minimoke]

More hysteria in OZ. They cannot keep Infant Formula on the shelves.
https://au.news.yahoo.com/video-emerges-customers-hoarding-baby-204252990.html

[couta1]

Short positions continue to be added on so someone is going to be very correct or get their tail feathers burned soon enough! Having come back from $14.62 to the current price there is no way the Shorters can be correct, not all Shorters are savvy.Lol

[Beagle]

More hysteria in OZ. They cannot keep Infant Formula on the shelves.
https://au.news.yahoo.com/video-emerges-customers-hoarding-baby-204252990.html

I really don't "get it" Why don't Synlait ramp the heck out of production to meet demand or is all this hysteria just part of a cunning marketing plan to hype the benefits of A2 milk products ?

[Redmack]

I really don't "get it" Why don't Synlait ramp the heck out of production to meet demand or is all this hysteria just part of a cunning marketing plan to hype the benefits of A2 milk products ?

Just went to Takanini, Auckland New World.

Two new A2 fresh milk products available:
Aunt Jean in a 1 Litre glass bottle for $5.
Lewis Road 750ml bottle for $4.49 ($5.99/Litre)


ATM A2 milk still $3.99 for 1 litre
Fresha Valley Still $4.90 for $2 Litre
The market is looking competitive.

[minimoke]

I really don't "get it" Why don't Synlait ramp the heck out of production to meet demand or is all this hysteria just part of a cunning marketing plan to hype the benefits of A2 milk products ?
From what I can see SML is pumping out as much IF as it can. Fonterra isn't much help as they seem to be using scares supply on liquid milk.

Is not only demand for A2M - though their stocks seem to be running out faster than others. It appears to be an insatiable demand from Asia which is being supplied from any and every source possible. Which includes "shoppers" racing in to a supermarket, grabbing ehri limit, heading to the car and racing back in again. Some of this may be driven by 11:11 day - but I think more for a general overall demand.

Perhaps this is tied to concern from consumers within China that once the Certification requirements come in supply will be severely constrained. Which means those suppliers who do meet requirements (eg SML english label) will be in a very strong position

I am expecting margin growth from SML and ATM to reflect this massive demand

[Sideshow Bob]

I really don't "get it" Why don't Synlait ramp the heck out of production to meet demand or is all this hysteria just part of a cunning marketing plan to hype the benefits of A2 milk products ?

Supply is one thing they don't really talk about - only around 'enhanced strategic relationships' with Synlait, and also now Fonterra. They don't say that they are constrained, number of farmers etc.

Presume supply is primarily more Synlait's gig, they manage the relationship with the farmer, pay the farmer, pay the premium, pick-up the milk etc.

Maybe a few good questions for the AGM.

[Sideshow Bob]

Just went to Takanini, Auckland New World.

Two new A2 fresh milk products available:
Aunt Jean in a 1 Litre glass bottle for $5.
Lewis Road 750ml bottle for $4.49 ($5.99/Litre)


ATM A2 milk still $3.99 for 1 litre
Fresha Valley Still $4.90 for $2 Litre
The market is looking competitive.

A2's fresh milk business in NZ is a drop in the bucket compared to overseas - haven't really paid any attention and was licensed to Fresha, which seemed to be on a relatively low level. The real money comes from elsewhere.

Whether it is a PR exercise, trying to encourage trial, create awareness, provide feelgood for farmers or something else, I don't know. But they have a more sustainable advantage/point of difference to someone putting the same stuff in a flash bottle, with a flash label.....

[see weed]

ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ Wake me up when the action starts......Prob. next week.

[minimoke]

ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ Wake me up when the action starts......Prob. next week.Its like that. Can't see the market currently building any fat into the SP on the back of possible good news next week. (I hope there's good news!!)

[couta1]

Its like that. Can't see the market currently building any fat into the SP on the back of possible good news next week. (I hope there's good news!!) Shorts starting to drop off, down to 25% of volume traded yesterday. AGM week after next.PS-Back to a third of my portfolio total.

[winner69]

Whatever is said/indicated at agm it will be seen as good news or stunning news (no inbetween stuff)