ATM - A2 Milk Corporation Limited [Archive] - Page 47

BlackPeter

09-11-2018, 04:07 PM

Sounds like the NZSA heard the pain of many shareholders following Ms Hrdlickas appointment and sell out:

They put a fine analysis and summary into their voting intentions. Obviously - if you want to read the whole thing, you should become a member, but here are some excerpts:

In our view, Ms Hrdlicka has impacted on confidence in the company by her (completely legal) actions in selling, and this must raise questions about her judgement. If the situation was unavoidable, it would surely have been better for ATM to disclose the need to sell at the time when she was employed, rather than after the event?

They intend to vote against her nomination as director, raising as well that they see it as poor governance to have the CEO sitting as first equal under the directors instead of reporting into the board.

We will vote against her appointment as a director, as the lack of separation between the board and CEO is poor governance as noted above. This does not impact on Ms Hrdlicka’s ability to fulfil the CEO role.

couta1

09-11-2018, 04:30 PM

Now come on BP, don't get us started on Herd Licker again.

BlackPeter

09-11-2018, 05:34 PM

Now come on BP, don't get us started on Herd Licker again.

Short memories? However - I just quoted from the NZSA document ... however - I couldn't have said it better :p;

Leftfield

11-11-2018, 07:31 AM

11/11 may be armistice day but it's also China's biggest online shopping extravaganza and the word is that A2's advance sales for this event were 50% above last years total....

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-11-10/alibaba-chalks-up-1-44-billion-of-singles-day-sales-in-minutes?srnd=premium-asia

winner69

11-11-2018, 08:13 AM

Leftfield

11-11-2018, 12:59 PM

How many extra millions of sales for A2 - thats the important thing. What was last year worth for them.

In the immortal words of The Karate Kid - "patience grasshopper- all will be revealed."

(FWIW my China revenue est is 40 to 55% above pp....but DYOR.)

dreamcatcher

11-11-2018, 02:38 PM

Speculation a2 sales are 2-3 times greater then 2017 with some sites out-of-stock already :t_up:

https://www.alizila.com/2018-11-11-global-shopping-festival/

44wishlists

11-11-2018, 04:59 PM

Just got up and checked the a2Milk Official Tmall store, a2 stage 2,3 and 4 all sold out. What a cracking 11.11 year for a2.
10140

dreamcatcher

11-11-2018, 07:31 PM

China '11 .11 'shopping day record is broken again

It took 1 hour 47 minutes for the transaction to exceed 100 billion yuan (about 16.2 trillion won).

http://www.tellerreport.com/business/--china--11--11--shopping-day-record-is-broken-again------xiaomi-apple--wings--.Syu8QMra7.html

petty

11-11-2018, 07:45 PM

I just went on the Aussie A2 online store and tried to buy tins. "Due to high demand limit of 3 tins per customer per 7 days"

Leftfield

11-11-2018, 07:59 PM

Speculation a2 sales are 2-3 times greater then 2017 with some sites out-of-stock already :t_up:
https://www.alizila.com/2018-11-11-global-shopping-festival/

Thanks for posting - if the speculation is right, my estimate of a 40 to 55% increase for ATM is v conservative! ATM sold out on the day on several sites. T - Mall reporting over $23 Billion in total sales for the event. Incredible.
The next update is going to be a cracker!

dreamcatcher

11-11-2018, 08:10 PM

Maybe management are far ahead of game with well planned 11/11 strategy with most stores sold out and by not throwing the maximum available? stock means demand still exist for the remainder of the year. Remember we also have 12/12 next month. :t_up:

winner69

11-11-2018, 08:38 PM

Hope all this fantastic news leads to even more profit than expected

winner69

11-11-2018, 09:07 PM

Thanks for posting - if the speculation is right, my estimate of a 40 to 55% increase for ATM is v conservative! ATM sold out on the day on several sites. T - Mall reporting over $23 Billion in total sales for the event. Incredible.
The next update is going to be a cracker!

DMOR leftie .....jeez 55% is only a $128m increase on last year

After 162% growth in F18 surely !00% growth in F19 eh ...or close to it

Growing market share at 2% points plus gives you your 55% growth ....and thats before market expansion/growth is taken into account

DMOR tells me China sales $450m in F19 ...just under 100% growth

And with the excitment in Australia group sales well in excess of $1.4 billion I reckon

If their internal 'forecast' get a bit out of line with consensus analyst forecasts ($1.25 billion) they will need to fess up (disclose) to the market

Watch the body language at the AGM next week

Leftfield

12-11-2018, 07:38 AM

DMOR leftie .....jeez 55% is only a $128m increase on last year

After 162% growth in F18 surely !00% growth in F19 eh ...or close to it
Growing market share at 2% points plus gives you your 55% growth ....and thats before market expansion/growth is taken into account
DMOR tells me China sales $450m in F19 ...just under 100% growth
And with the excitment in Australia group sales well in excess of $1.4 billion I reckon
If their internal 'forecast' get a bit out of line with consensus analyst forecasts ($1.25 billion) they will need to fess up (disclose) to the market
Watch the body language at the AGM next week

Yee ha.... exciting isn't it. I love it when a company proves me wrong on upside sales revenue!! Yep I agree forecast TOTAL FY19 revenue of $1.4 billion is now looking easy peasy!!

(To be fair the TOTAL A2 estimated FY19 revenue of $1.4B was where I got my TOTAL sales revenue fig of 40 to 50% increase on $920 mill i.e. TOTAL not just China.... but love being proved conservative!! :t_up:)

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-11-11/alibaba-sets-singles-day-record-with-31-billion-in-sales?srnd=premium-asia

winner69

12-11-2018, 10:46 AM

WOW WOW
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/108528157/a2-and-nz-lamb-a-winner-on-alibabas-singles-day

Lamb doing OK as well

Leftfield

12-11-2018, 11:07 AM

WOW WOW
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/108528157/a2-and-nz-lamb-a-winner-on-alibabas-singles-day
Lamb doing OK as well

Bought back the ATM shares I sold earlier this year at $13.56. Today's price $10.50.

Muppett

12-11-2018, 11:22 AM

Does anyone know what impact last year's record 11/11 sales increase had on the bottom line for ATM?
From memory, it was jack ****.

couta1

12-11-2018, 11:32 AM

Bought back the ATM shares I sold earlier this year at $13.56. Today's price $10.50. Well done, might be the last chance over the next few days to obtain cheap shares before the volcano has another eruption.Lol

minimoke

12-11-2018, 11:34 AM

Does anyone know what impact last year's record 11/11 sales increase had on the bottom line for ATM?
From memory, it was jack ****.From teh AGM presentation last year:
"4M18 trading
• Group revenue of NZ$262.2 million:
– Reflects continued strong growth in nutritional products (ANZ, China) and positive momentum in USA, UK
– Includes some seasonal build ahead of key China e-commerce sales events, 11/11 Singles Day and 12/12"

Muppett

12-11-2018, 11:38 AM

From teh AGM presentation last year:
"4M18 trading
• Group revenue of NZ$262.2 million:
– Reflects continued strong growth in nutritional products (ANZ, China) and positive momentum in USA, UK
– Includes some seasonal build ahead of key China e-commerce sales events, 11/11 Singles Day and 12/12"

Many thanks.

minimoke

12-11-2018, 11:47 AM

Well done, might be the last chance over the next few days to obtain cheap shares before the volcano has another eruption.Lol
Perhaps we shouldnt get ahead of ourselves. Last year, at around this time, we had the Synlait announcement just before the AGM then the updated Q results and SP didn't really go anywhere.

couta1

12-11-2018, 12:08 PM

Beagle

12-11-2018, 12:17 PM

Perhaps we shouldnt get ahead of ourselves. Last year, at around this time, we had the Synlait announcement just before the AGM then the updated Q results and SP didn't really go anywhere.

The voice of reason. Its going to take more than some record one day sales event to build momentum after Ms Herdlicker set a new tone going forward of corporate greed.
SP still in the doldrums despite the euphoria of single's day. I think its going to take hard evidence of very strong IH sales and some clarity on the new regulatory regime in China before this has a chance to build genuine momentum again. In the meantime its a traders paradise and seeing as I'm not a trader and don't see any clear direction at present and it has no dividends I'm presently enjoying watching this from the sidelines.

Leftfield

12-11-2018, 01:09 PM

The voice of reason. Its going to take more than some record one day sales event to build momentum after Ms Herdlicker set a new tone going forward of corporate greed.
SP still in the doldrums despite the euphoria of single's day. I think its going to take hard evidence of very strong IH sales and some clarity on the new regulatory regime in China before this has a chance to build genuine momentum again. In the meantime its a traders paradise and seeing as I'm not a trader and don't see any clear direction at present and it has no dividends I'm presently enjoying watching this from the sidelines.

Yes important not to get too excited. However...

According to this article (https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/108528157/a2-and-nz-lamb-a-winner-on-alibabas-singles-day), A2 was the best performing 'cross border' brand.

Also important to note that ATM outsold competitor Optimal which has/had 10% share of the China IF market. Prior to this event ATM had around 5.6% mkt share. I expect ATM's market share will get re-rated soon (if it can meet demand)

Also important for people like Muppet to appreciate that IF sales are where there are huge profit margins for ATM compared to sales of raw milk in Aust, USA,UK etc.

How will this all relate to the FY19 bottom line? DYOR.

Me buying back-in this morning may have been seen to be a bit rash by some, but even with this latest purchase my holding cost on a significant amount of ATM is still under 50c ps and I felt like Buffett buying-back more of my own company! :t_up:

minimoke

12-11-2018, 01:23 PM

Heres is last years singles results. Lets see how this year went: "a2 Platinum® again participatedsuccessfully in key online sales events. Inthe major ‘11/11 Singles Day’ event it wasthe top-selling infant formula onKaola.com, second on JD.com and thirdon T-mall."

Beagle

12-11-2018, 01:30 PM

Appreciate your point of view Left field. Chatting with Couta1 this morning one of the subjects was why don't Synlait just ramp up production massively to meet all demand so they don't end up in this stock shortage situation ? From memory as a SML shareholder I recall contracted production for ATM IF is set to increase by a fairly modest ~ 20% for FY19 considerably down from the ~ 80% increase last year. I can't help wonder if these sort of stock shortages are a little "creatively engineered" to build up the hype and are in fact part of a fairly cunning marketing program to generate social media hype around ATM IF product ? Many will recall how Apple used to generate massive hype around the release of each new iPhone model and customers would queue around the block and sleep overnight in order to be first in the queue at the store and assured of getting one.

Stock shortages must be immensely frustrating from a consumers point of view. As a young Chinese mother you're either lactating sufficient milk supply or you're not and breast milk supply can't be simply turned on or off depending upon whether they can get sufficient IF supply can it !

Anyone got any thoughts why ATM simply don't ask Synlait for more supply ? Are Synlait's own A2 production forecast's too conservative for FY19 ?
Will Herdlicker take another lick at Synlait seeing its down $2 from her last bite ?

Anyone going to Synlait annual meeting on 28 November to get the good oil (milk ?) on this production situation ?

minimoke

12-11-2018, 01:32 PM

Time for a picture from Kaola.com

minimoke

12-11-2018, 01:36 PM

And now for one from JD.com

minimoke

12-11-2018, 01:39 PM

And finally one from TMall

peat

12-11-2018, 01:45 PM

its not going to do the share price any further good if the sales portals are all out of stock!

minimoke

12-11-2018, 01:50 PM

its not going to do the share price any further good if the sales portals are all out of stock!Time to look at Synlait again. 35,600 tonnes of IF produced in 2018. 2019 estimated to be 41 - 45,000 tonnes. Is this enough to meet ATM demand. If not, will cash rich ATM go shopping for another supplier? Create demand, supply will follow.

Beagle

12-11-2018, 02:04 PM

Time to look at Synlait again. 35,600 tonnes of IF produced in 2018. 2019 estimated to be 41 - 45,000 tonnes. Is this enough to meet ATM demand. If not, will cash rich ATM go shopping for another supplier? Create demand, supply will follow.

Yeap even at that top end of 45,000 tonnes that's just 26% production increase compared to over 80% increase last year. What's going on here ? Is Synlait pulling our leg with this extremely conservative forecast or do they have remaining production constraints despite new packaging and manufacturing capability added last year or are ATM IF sales generally not as gangbusters as the single's day reports / out of stock reports suggest ? Someone needs to get to the bottom of this situation and therefore given your location and the location of the pending Synlait annual meeting do you mind if I nominate you for the task ?

couta1

12-11-2018, 02:10 PM

I like to keep it simple and follow the Coutometer, the same one I used for ZEL.Lol

allfromacell

12-11-2018, 02:11 PM

Yeap even at that top end of 45,000 tonnes that's just 26% production increase compared to over 80% increase last year. What's going on here ? Is Synlait pulling our leg with this extremely conservative forecast or do they have remaining production constraints despite new packaging and manufacturing capability added last year or are ATM IF sales generally not as gangbusters as the single's day reports / out of stock reports suggest ? Someone needs to get to the bottom of this situation and therefore given your location and the location of the pending Synlait annual meeting do you mind if I nominate you for the task ?

What about the increased inventory levels ATM reported in their report, they had $50M worth of finished goods on hand (valued at cost), I've got no clue how many MTs that is in formula but I imagine it's significant. If all theses shops are sold out I would hope the inventory levels are now pretty low.

BlackPeter

12-11-2018, 03:37 PM

Anyone going to Synlait annual meeting on 28 November to get the good oil (milk ?) on this production situation ?

I intend to and plan to report, if there is anything of interest ;);

winner69

12-11-2018, 03:41 PM

I intend to and plan to report, if there is anything of interest ;);

Give my regards to Ruth if she is present ...thanks

minimoke

12-11-2018, 03:49 PM

Someone needs to get to the bottom of this situation and therefore given your location and the location of the pending Synlait annual meeting do you mind if I nominate you for the task ?I may get there if I can find my proxy form

BlackPeter

12-11-2018, 03:50 PM

Give my regards to Ruth if she is present ...thanks

I suspect she will be - always an interesting dress ;);

Not sure, though, whether she knows you under your penname? Does she?

minimoke

12-11-2018, 06:50 PM

Another ex quantas / jetstar employee joins the fold.
Lisa Burquest the new Human Resources Director. I'm hoping ATM isn't going to be the resting zone for ex airline people.

winner69

12-11-2018, 07:03 PM

Another ex quantas / jetstar employee joins the fold.
Lisa Burquest the new Human Resources Director. I'm hoping ATM isn't going to be the resting zone for ex airline people.

First priority for her is to develop and implement a diversity policy

minimoke

12-11-2018, 07:09 PM

First priority for her is to develop and implement a diversity policyYou have made the poor woman redundant already. The policy is here:https://thea2milkcompany.com/about-us/corporate-governance/

winner69

12-11-2018, 07:15 PM

You have made the poor woman redundant already. The policy is here:https://thea2milkcompany.com/about-us/corporate-governance/

You fast off the mark but gender split at Board and Senior Execs in last AR pretty abysmal

minimoke

12-11-2018, 07:20 PM

You fast off the mark but gender split at Board and Senior Execs in last AR pretty abysmal55% women, 45% men is the split. But feel free to cherry pick different strata to suit your position. (be mindful 100% of CEO level women made a pretty crap decision to sell shares which resulted in freefall of shareholder value)

winner69

12-11-2018, 07:59 PM

55% women, 45% men is the split. But feel free to cherry pick different strata to suit your position. (be mindful 100% of CEO level women made a pretty crap decision to sell shares which resulted in freefall of shareholder value)

Don’t think Jayne was that 1 ...she had not started then. With this new role there might actually be 3 females on the Exec Team now so getting there. You better sell your shares mate before it becomes four or even five.

That Susan is a bright cookie ....her marketing skills are main reason A2 is where it is today.

minimoke

12-11-2018, 08:10 PM

Don’t think Jayne was that 1 ...she had not started then. With this new role there might actually be 3 females on the Exec Team now so getting there. .Jaynes a good appointment then. She adds one Woman to the Board and one Woman to the Senior Exe team.

I suspect the reason ATM is where it is today is because of the Marketing Skills of the senior marketing person - not because of her gender.

see weed

13-11-2018, 12:04 PM

Bag a bargain hour..... Sorry, bag a bargain 5 minutes:).

couta1

13-11-2018, 12:26 PM

Bag a bargain hour..... Sorry, bag a bargain 5 minutes:). Bit longer than that thanks to the US, a gift for the bold.

BlackPeter

13-11-2018, 12:28 PM

Bag a bargain hour..... Sorry, bag a bargain 5 minutes:).

Its not called a bargain if it is still cheaper half an hour later :P;

Markets probably concerend that Jayne's latest buddy coming from Quantas might have a similar investment strategy to her boss ...

couta1

13-11-2018, 12:31 PM

Its not called a bargain if it is still cheaper half an hour later :P;

Markets probably concerend that Jayne's latest buddy coming from Quantas might have a similar investment strategy to her boss ... A bargin is a bargin even if it gets cheaper.PS-Nothing to do with Jayne this time.PPS-A few more weak hands like Jayne shaken out.

see weed

13-11-2018, 12:42 PM

Its not called a bargain if it is still cheaper half an hour later :P;

Markets probably concerend that Jayne's latest buddy coming from Quantas might have a similar investment strategy to her boss ...
OK, You win that round. So lets call it bag a bargain day. And hopefully it doesn't turn into bag a bargain week.

BlackPeter

13-11-2018, 01:04 PM

A bargin is a bargin even if it gets cheaper.PS-Nothing to do with Jayne this time.PPS-A few more weak hands like Jayne shaken out.

Hmm - Jayne having weak hands? Is this good or bad given she runs the company .... ?

winner69

13-11-2018, 01:07 PM

When are you guys going to give up on milk stocks and move into the cannabis craze

RGR367

13-11-2018, 01:09 PM

How is this a bargain when it was selling cheaper than 10 bucks just a month ago? But even then, Market does not seem to like another airliner personnel into ATM.

couta1

13-11-2018, 01:14 PM

How is this a bargain when it was selling cheaper than 10 bucks just a month ago? But even then, Market does not seem to like another airliner personnel into ATM. If you bought over $12 like many did it's a screaming bargin.PS-Nothing to do with another airliner personnel, it's a macro effect.

couta1

13-11-2018, 01:21 PM

When are you guys going to give up on milk stocks and move into the cannabis craze Nutmeg and Milk still a pretty good mix winner, why settle for cannabis.

steveb

13-11-2018, 01:29 PM

Perhaps the market was expecting a kiwi to fill the role.If they like airline staff Jodie King from Air New Zealand would have been a good poach!

minimoke

13-11-2018, 01:51 PM

Perhaps the market was expecting a kiwi to fill the role.If they like airline staff Jodie King from Air New Zealand would have been a good poach!This is a problem with the whole "diversity" argument. No-one should be expecting a New Zealander (or an Ozzie) to fill the job. It should ALWAYS be the best person. Herdlicker will be the decison maker so we have to trust her judgement that she has hired the very best person and not just applying a bit of nepotism or simply hiring a "yes" person. I'm deferring my final judgments until after the AGM

couta1

13-11-2018, 02:08 PM

Kicked a couple of other dogs out of my kennel(THL&SML) for a good sized loss to buy more of these today.

minimoke

13-11-2018, 02:26 PM

Kicked a couple of other dogs out of my kennel(THL&SML) for a good sized loss to buy more of these today.I'm still holding the SML line and waiting for their AGM at the end of the month. Its widely accepted that ATM supply cant keep up with product demand. So its worth remembering who is supplying ATM (as well as who part owns SML)

couta1

14-11-2018, 02:43 PM

More low volume tree shaking, mind you the Aussie market is looking sick.Lol

minimoke

14-11-2018, 02:59 PM

More low volume tree shaking, mind you the Aussie market is looking sick.LolThis is getting so sick I'm thinking my money might be better put into a residential rental investment.

steveb

14-11-2018, 03:00 PM

Well it's under the $10.00 barrier,but I guess as aussie controls the market our barriers are just not the same anymore!

Beagle

14-11-2018, 03:12 PM

This is a problem with the whole "diversity" argument. No-one should be expecting a New Zealander (or an Ozzie) to fill the job. It should ALWAYS be the best person. Herdlicker will be the decison maker so we have to trust her judgement that she has hired the very best person and not just applying a bit of nepotism or simply hiring a "yes" person. I'm deferring my final judgments until after the AGM

Yeap...shareholders can absolutely trust Herdlicker to hire the best people in the world for various roles no matter what past association they may have enjoyed after all she displayed such "remarkably good" judgement with her share sales....opps NO, hang on a minute...Its lonely at the top so you might as well hire a few of your girlfriends right ?...doesn't matter if they're any good because ATM product sells itself. Nothing to worry about here...or is there ?
Mr Market not impressed despite the off the charts sales on single's day. Hmmmm

minimoke

14-11-2018, 03:44 PM

Yeap...shareholders can absolutely trust Herdlicker I'm trying hard to move on from her sell off - which I also blame the Board for (shoulda given her cash!)

At the moment (ATM - see what i did there) I'm backing my hold on the basis of a company who is selling out of stock with more product coming on stream. That has to be a good news story.

Disc. My warped view obviously at odds with the Market.

Beagle

14-11-2018, 03:54 PM

I'm trying hard to move on from her sell off - which I also blame the Board for (shoulda given her cash!)

At the moment (ATM - see what i did there) I'm backing my hold on the basis of a company who is selling out of stock with more product coming on stream. That has to be a good news story.

Disc. My warped view obviously at odds with the Market.

I like what you did there. My concern is Ms Herdlicker is gathering her herd around her, (see what I did there) :p
How many other members of the former Jetheap herd can shareholders look forward too ? At this minute I remain watchfully cautious.

minimoke

14-11-2018, 04:13 PM

I like what you did there. My concern is Ms Herdlicker is gathering her herd around her, (see what I did there) :p
.Thats what herds do - they gather around.

Cows also have a Herd Leader, usually a strong calm cow. A cow that has earnt the respect of the herd. Where the Herd Leader goes, other cows tend to follow. The Herd Leader can often take the other cows, trustingly into unknown or new situations.

The advantage of being a Herd Leader is that you get first dibs at the trough. Which means first dibs on any goodies in the trough.

Now, if you are a herd producing delicious premium A2 milk you need extra minerals and salt in your diet. So the Herd Leader will take the herd to the trough

If there just happens to be a salt block in the trough The Herd Leader becomes the first licker and by proxy, the Herd Licker.

Where am I going with all this - just passing time telling a tale in the absence of any tales coming from ATM as the SP sinks and sinks and sinks till my Stop Loss gets hit

see weed

14-11-2018, 05:02 PM

Thats what herds do - they gather around.

Cows also have a Herd Leader, usually a strong calm cow. A cow that has earnt the respect of the herd. Where the Herd Leader goes, other cows tend to follow. The Herd Leader can often take the other cows, trustingly into unknown or new situations.

The advantage of being a Herd Leader is that you get first dibs at the trough. Which means first dibs on any goodies in the trough.

Now, if you are a herd producing delicious premium A2 milk you need extra minerals and salt in your diet. So the Herd Leader will take the herd to the trough

If there just happens to be a salt block in the trough The Herd Leader becomes the first licker and by proxy, the Herd Licker.

Where am I going with all this - just passing time telling a tale in the absence of any tales coming from ATM as the SP sinks and sinks and sinks till my Stop Loss gets hit
LOL, Love it. There is more to it than Herd licker. The Aussies are mucking around with the sp and trying to rattle the kiwis into selling. When all the Kiwis have sold and it's 99% Aussie owned, then the sp will go up probably to 15 or 20 dolla. I hope to be in the 1% who didn't sell:t_up:.

Beagle

14-11-2018, 05:08 PM

Thats what herds do - they gather around.

Cows also have a Herd Leader, usually a strong calm cow. A cow that has earnt the respect of the herd. Where the Herd Leader goes, other cows tend to follow. The Herd Leader can often take the other cows, trustingly into unknown or new situations.

The advantage of being a Herd Leader is that you get first dibs at the trough. Which means first dibs on any goodies in the trough.

Now, if you are a herd producing delicious premium A2 milk you need extra minerals and salt in your diet. So the Herd Leader will take the herd to the trough

If there just happens to be a salt block in the trough The Herd Leader becomes the first licker and by proxy, the Herd Licker.

Where am I going with all this - just passing time telling a tale in the absence of any tales coming from ATM as the SP sinks and sinks and sinks till my Stop Loss gets hit

:lol: :lol: You are the herd leader today...surely the post of the day :)

couta1

14-11-2018, 06:17 PM

Selling has nothing to do with the Jetgirls Herd, take a look at the weekly Aussie bar graph if you have any doubts, although it is about the wider Herd behaviour.

waikare

14-11-2018, 06:17 PM

Thats what herds do - they gather around.

Cows also have a Herd Leader, usually a strong calm cow. A cow that has earnt the respect of the herd. Where the Herd Leader goes, other cows tend to follow. The Herd Leader can often take the other cows, trustingly into unknown or new situations.

The advantage of being a Herd Leader is that you get first dibs at the trough. Which means first dibs on any goodies in the trough.

Now, if you are a herd producing delicious premium A2 milk you need extra minerals and salt in your diet. So the Herd Leader will take the herd to the trough

If there just happens to be a salt block in the trough The Herd Leader becomes the first licker and by proxy, the Herd Licker.

Where am I going with all this - just passing time telling a tale in the absence of any tales coming from ATM as the SP sinks and sinks and sinks till my Stop Loss gets hit

Lets not get confused between Ms Herdlicker and a Herd Leader, there is a difference: a Herd Leader leads the rest of the herd to milk, Ms Herdlicker is milking us.

McGinty

14-11-2018, 06:23 PM

This is getting so sick I'm thinking my money might be better put into a residential rental investment.

Things aren't that bad, maybe try holding cash first :D

couta1

14-11-2018, 06:24 PM

Lets not get confused between Ms Herdlicker and a Herd Leader, there is a difference: a Herd Leader leads the rest of the herd to milk, Ms Herdlicker is milking us. Let's hope A2 doesn't end up being a budget subsidairy of Jetstar without wings.

minimoke

15-11-2018, 04:05 PM

Well another gloomy day. On holiday tomorrow so might have a look in the cupboard tonight for some Hard Liqueur.

couta1

15-11-2018, 04:15 PM

Well another gloomy day. On holiday tomorrow so might have a look in the cupboard tonight for some Hard Liqueur. Well the Bolly Bands are starting to come together so despite the recent drop I'm looking for a breakout upwards at some point over the next while.

mshierlaw

15-11-2018, 06:16 PM

Well the Bolly Bands are starting to come together so despite the recent drop I'm looking for a breakout upwards at some point over the next while.

Falling wedge?

But the predicability of this stock beggers belief.

minimoke

15-11-2018, 07:29 PM

I'm hoping we have reached the low with 1.9m shares crossing at AUD$9.55 just before there close

couta1

15-11-2018, 07:42 PM

Falling wedge?

But the predicability of this stock beggers belief. Let's hope it is a falling wedge with tightening bolly bands or will the US delay the party?

Baa_Baa

15-11-2018, 09:12 PM

I'm hoping we have reached the low with 1.9m shares crossing at AUD$9.55 just before there close

Someone thinks we're at the best price considering the circumstances and are bailing while the other side think we're at the low and buying.

You miggt think a holding of that size wouldn't bail unless they thought it was a dud. What do they know?

That's a lot of money putting their convictions on the line, both ways, it would be good to know who they are. Wishful thinking though unless an SSH follows shortly.

Still holding.

steve06

16-11-2018, 09:58 AM

What are everyone's thoughts on 4month revenue figures from July18-Oct18?

My take is ~400m

From 2nd half fy18 results, 488m:
235m for the four months July18-Oct 18 for ANZ (assuming constant 32%market share of IF by value, but not factoring in liquid milk share increases, figures aren't given),
87m for China (5.6% share by value indicated in the Q1 19 update) and
11m for US UK (assuming no growth from June18, not taking the store increases into account)
which gives a figure of 333m for the four months July18-Oct18.

333m is assuming no growth in ANZ and US, UK from June18. However, we have seem across the ditch stock being sold out in supermarkets, etc . Assuming all inventory (64.1m end of June18) were sold, I get a figure for the four months July18-Oct18 of 397.1m.

Sideshow Bob

16-11-2018, 10:18 AM

winner69

16-11-2018, 10:24 AM

allfromacell

16-11-2018, 10:35 AM

I'm predicting somewhere are 380-385M, I would love for it to come in at 400M but I think that's a little ambitious. I'm excited to hear what's planned for the ever-growing large cash pile, further commentary on regulatory changes and clarity around supply.

steve06

16-11-2018, 10:49 AM

Jeez mate — $400m is only 50% odd growth on last year

Has to be heaps more than that ..doesn’t it?

I'd say thats the base figure. 1Q 19 update indicated fresh milk market share now over 10% in ANZ, no figures where given so didn't take that into account. Stores increased from 6000 to 8000 stores in US, as well as increases in China, no solid figures were given so not taken into account. But hopefully the number at the AGM would be higher than that

carrom74

16-11-2018, 10:55 AM

Jeez mate — $400m is only 50% odd growth on last year

Has to be heaps more than that ..doesn’t it?

Hey Winner..

For a forward pe consensus of 28.57 at the current sp, do you think $400M profit is low? if in that case would it affect the share price?... its already jittery of late...love your thoughts

sb9

16-11-2018, 10:56 AM

What are everyone's thoughts on 4month revenue figures from July18-Oct18?

My take is ~400m

$400mln for 4m would be looked upon very favourably by the market. What gets more exciting would be any capital management initiative especially if its share buy back.

steve06

16-11-2018, 10:57 AM

777

16-11-2018, 11:49 AM

I'm excited to hear what's planned for the ever-growing large cash pile, further commentary on regulatory changes and clarity around supply.

On recent events I would expect an increase in CEO remuneration, an increase in Directors fees and no dividend for the owners.

Leftfield

16-11-2018, 11:52 AM

couta1

16-11-2018, 11:58 AM

On recent events I would expect an increase in CEO remuneration, an increase in Directors fees and no dividend for the owners.:t_down::t_down::t_down::cursing::cursing:: cursing:

Beagle

16-11-2018, 11:59 AM

$400mln for 4m would be looked upon very favourably by the market. What gets more exciting would be any capital management initiative especially if its share buy back.

Some very cheap Synlait shares on market. They paid $10.90 per share for the last tranche.

sb9

16-11-2018, 12:02 PM

I'm with you on this range (say $380 to $390m.) Would be great to see figures above $400m.

My pick is between $385m and $392m.

winner69

16-11-2018, 12:16 PM

Hey Winner..

For a forward pe consensus of 28.57 at the current sp, do you think $400M profit is low? if in that case would it affect the share price?... its already jittery of late...love your thoughts

Problem with your $400m profit is that it would need revenues to be $1.9 billion and even bulls like Steve and allfrom are not expecting that.

Say $1.4 billion revenues (+51%) and you’d expect profit of $300m

So today on a forward PE of about 25 today ....seems pretty reasonable

Sideshow Bob

16-11-2018, 12:17 PM

Some very cheap Synlait shares on market. They paid $10.90 per share for the last tranche.

Think from memory they are about 17% and if they went over 20% wouldn't that trigger a takeover? Or probably could apply for dispensation?

However, the last comment of their announcement on 3rd of August when they bought their last tranche said: "
a2MC has no plans to further increase its shareholding in Synlait."

This was signed by Jayne - didn't say anything about selling shares...….. ;)

sb9

16-11-2018, 02:56 PM

Interesting day so far, volume on NZX is higher than ASX. Not sure what to make of it...

carrom74

16-11-2018, 06:32 PM

winner69

16-11-2018, 06:51 PM

peat

16-11-2018, 07:40 PM

Wow... look at the amount of shorting yesterday... I suppose the shorters are more confident and looking at a flat ending today... its going to be nervous three days for all holders...the shorting percentage was a staggering 112.86%

https://www.shortman.com.au/stock?q=a2m

very interesting
it looks as though at about a 7% level of aggregate shorts the brakes come off the upward movement of the price. currently at about 6%. hmmm

allfromacell

16-11-2018, 08:22 PM

The daily short percentage data is total shorting activity which includes covering. Best to keep an eye on the chart for actual shorted shares which is delayed by 4 days.

My hunch is a lot of the closing volume yesterday was covering but who knows..

see weed

19-11-2018, 11:52 AM

I see UBS just paid about $370m for about 5% of a2m last week. Look forward to AGM and results tomorrow:).

winner69

19-11-2018, 11:53 AM

I see UBS just paid about $370m for about 5% of a2m. Look forward to AGM and results tomorrow:).

I thought they were already a SSH

sb9

19-11-2018, 11:54 AM

I see UBS just paid about $370m for about 5% of a2m. Look forward to AGM and results tomorrow:).

24 hours to go before the event. Wonder what ASX has in store for today, I myself not expecting any large upward momentum today.

see weed

19-11-2018, 11:59 AM

I thought they were already a SSH
Woops You right, me wrong.

see weed

19-11-2018, 12:00 PM

24 hours to go before the event. Wonder what ASX has in store for today, I myself not expecting any large upward momentum today.
We'll see soon.

mondograss

19-11-2018, 12:01 PM

They'll have just been getting back the shares they loaned out for shorting, probably puts them back up over the 5% threshold.

Sideshow Bob

19-11-2018, 12:26 PM

I see UBS just paid about $370m for about 5% of a2m last week. Look forward to AGM and results tomorrow:).

Probably just want to have more of a vote tomorrow.....

whatsup

19-11-2018, 01:05 PM

Leaky boat up 4.5 % today @ $10.63 !

winner69

19-11-2018, 01:11 PM

Leaky boat up 4.5 % today @ $10.63 !

Punters not wanting to miss out .....when $400m is mentioned.

minimoke

19-11-2018, 01:15 PM

Leaky boat up 4.5 % today @ $10.63 !Hopefully this tide will lift that other leaky boat SML. I'm expecting it to!

Leftfield

19-11-2018, 01:17 PM

Knocking on $A 10.00 on ASX in preparation for tomorrow. Shorters will be sweating.

allfromacell

19-11-2018, 01:19 PM

Punters not wanting to miss out .....when $400m is mentioned.

Not to mention a large buy back announcement and who knows what else. Tomorrow will be a good day :).

sb9

19-11-2018, 01:23 PM

Punters not wanting to miss out .....when $400m is mentioned.

I would be happy anything in vicinity of $370m-$380m mark (which is growth of 40% from last year 4M figure of $262m), anything more than would be a nice bonus, as the stock would quickly rerate.

My gut feel says they would be some sort of capital management initiative like share buy-back if they have no further plans of acquisitions or investments. After all what would they with all that ever growing pile of cash reserves, lost count how much would that be now close to $400m?

see weed

19-11-2018, 01:28 PM

24 hours to go before the event. Wonder what ASX has in store for today, I myself not expecting any large upward momentum today.
What about tomorrow, and how much or how big is a large upward momentum 30c to 50c? or $1 to $3?;).

minimoke

19-11-2018, 01:31 PM

I would be happy anything in vicinity of $370m-$380m mark (which is growth of 40% from last year 4M figure of $262m), anything more than would be a nice bonus, as the stock would quickly rerate.

My gut feel says they would be some sort of capital management initiative like share buy-back if they have no further plans of acquisitions or investments. After all what would they with all that ever growing pile of cash reserves, lost count how much would that be now close to $400m?While share buy back might be "nice" it doesn't solve an underlying problem. That is increasing supply. For me, I am looking forward to an announcement on further investment in the supply chain.

Baa_Baa

19-11-2018, 06:48 PM

TA is looking positive from the recent low 14th to-date leading into the AGM. Eyes on the AGM tomorrow, hopefully some super performance stats and forecast to put the insider sell downs behind us and a reminder of the future ahead.

Sideshow Bob

20-11-2018, 08:27 AM

***grabs box of popcorn and awaits the action***

minimoke

20-11-2018, 08:32 AM

***grabs box of popcorn and awaits the action***Yup, got my CSN/FIN on hand to watch the movie. Bound to be a bit of drama. Hopefully a happy ending.

Sideshow Bob

20-11-2018, 08:35 AM

Sideshow Bob

20-11-2018, 08:39 AM

No mention I can see of what they are going to do with cash mountain.....

bull....

20-11-2018, 08:39 AM

From Jaynes address:

And, continuing the trend, we have today also released a record result for the first four months of the year. We are reporting first four months: Revenue of $368.4 million, which represents a growth of 40.5% over prior year; EBITDA of $124.2 million, 58.5% growth on prior year; Profit before tax is $124.9 million up 60.0% and NPAT is $86.0 million up 64.5%.

but growth slowing going forward and positive fx in the first quarter will reverse

Ggcc

20-11-2018, 08:45 AM

but growth slowing going forward and positive fx in the first quarter will reverse
True, but I for one am happy with the results and management are not concerned about the new legislation China put forward....

Sideshow Bob

20-11-2018, 08:48 AM

but growth slowing going forward and positive fx in the first quarter will reverse

Growth always going to get harder, and have stated expect FX to reverse.

By my reckoning, not allowing for any growth $86m for 4 months = PE of 29.8

bull....

20-11-2018, 08:55 AM

Growth always going to get harder, and have stated expect FX to reverse.

By my reckoning, not allowing for any growth $86m for 4 months = PE of 29.8

pe still high dont you think if growth to slow down a little?

regulatory in china is still uncertain until it happens

when they going to give up on the uk?

i like that they are doubling down on increased marketing etc got plenty of cash they can use will need it for usa market

minimoke

20-11-2018, 09:00 AM

Well, that's a bit ho hum. Kind of business as usual. No mention of relieving supply constraints. $368m revenue a quarter (thats a bit off hyped expectations) is as good as its going to get. No mention of how those great profits are going to be applied. Other than China no mention of growth in other markets.

Seems they do have some secret squirrel plans under way on how the future will unfold. But its a long time between milky drink if we have to wait till end of financial year. Suggest it could be huge - given they seem to be stockpiling a large war chest of cash.

Leftfield

20-11-2018, 09:02 AM

From Jaynes address: And, continuing the trend, we have today also released a record result for the first four months of the year. We are reporting first four months: Revenue of $368.4 million, which represents a growth of 40.5% over prior year; EBITDA of $124.2 million, 58.5% growth on prior year; Profit before tax is $124.9 million up 60.0% and NPAT is $86.0 million up 64.5%.

I had hoped for better.....but am reasonably happy. Lack of info' on regional sales, makes it hard to judge UK and USA progress. Be interesting to see today's SP action.

Sideshow Bob

20-11-2018, 09:03 AM

pe still high dont you think if growth to slow down a little?

regulatory in china is still uncertain until it happens

when they going to give up on the uk?

i like that they are doubling down on increased marketing etc got plenty of cash they can use will need it for usa market

Agree with most of your points there Bull. But if growth slows, it is off a higher base. if it dropped to 20%, it is still another $50m+ to the bottom line.

China is China, and I think will usually have uncertainties, no matter what. The business I work in is China focused, and regulation and market access are by far the biggest issues.

No debt and brand is a huge thing when the followers are coming - so makes sense to invest in brand and marketing.

minimoke

20-11-2018, 09:08 AM

Be interesting to see today's SP action.first up is 100,000 at $10.51. Its a "LA" condition - but I dont know what that one is.

Sideshow Bob

20-11-2018, 09:13 AM

W No mention of relieving supply constraints.

Only thing I noted was a reasonable increase in inventory. $28.4m to $64.1m.

Historically never really talked about supply or any constraints etc.

allfromacell

20-11-2018, 09:17 AM

I was hoping for more revenue growth but good to see the Chinese label sales growth up 75% and 11/11 event sales tripling. It seems to me they could be growing a lot faster if they had more IF supply, hope there are lots of questions about this at the meeting.

allfromacell

20-11-2018, 09:18 AM

Only thing I noted was a reasonable increase in inventory. $28.4m to $64.1m.

Historically never really talked about supply or any constraints etc.

That data is from June so is old information, they haven't updated the inventory levels which I would love to know.

minimoke

20-11-2018, 09:21 AM

Only thing I noted was a reasonable increase in inventory. $28.4m to $64.1m.

.I dont understand that. Record 11/11 sales apparently. And it appears stocks had run out on the day - or at least orders stopped being filled. Sure they need to keep some back for 12/12. But all the same thats a big increase in inventory when demand is supposed to be so high.
Edit - #11635 noted. I wonder what "sustainable levels" are.

winner69

20-11-2018, 09:35 AM

News should get shareprice well over the 11 buck mark ...no worries

Muppett

20-11-2018, 09:41 AM

News should get shareprice well over the 11 buck mark ...no worries

It should with a NPAT=+64.5%

I'm more interested in what % vote against the Trougher retaining her position on the Board.

couta1

20-11-2018, 09:44 AM

News should get shareprice well over the 11 buck mark ...no worries It's a great result but in the current Macro environment the SP could go either way.

winner69

20-11-2018, 09:48 AM

whatsup

20-11-2018, 10:06 AM

Can we crack $11 for the first time in 6 weeks ?

see weed

20-11-2018, 10:12 AM

News should get shareprice well over the 11 buck mark ...no worries
up over $11 now. This reminds me of last Feb went from 9.50 odd to $11 in morning then up to $12 or so after asx opened then to $14 within the next two weeks after that :t_up:.

whatsup

20-11-2018, 10:12 AM

can we crack $11 for the first time in 6 weeks ?

boom $11.10

sb9

20-11-2018, 10:20 AM

Jayne says expect strong revenue growth to continue but a more moderate rate than first four months ....and ebitda margin about the sales as last year

That sort of sales for full year $1.265m, ebitda $380m and npat of $260m/$270m (up 33% on F18)

That’s how I see it anyway

My FY19 forecast numbers are based today's trading update and taking into account previously reported numbers:

Rev - $ 1.288M
NPAT - $ 295M
EPS - $ 0.40c

A 30 PE multiple would put them at $12, 35 at $14 and 40 at $16.

couta1

20-11-2018, 10:20 AM

It's a great result but in the current Macro environment the SP could go either way. Offloaded a few due to above, sometimes the Kiwis get a bit too enthusiastic before the Aussie open. PS-Hope I'm wrong.

winner69

20-11-2018, 10:27 AM

My FY19 forecast numbers are based today's trading update and taking into account previously reported numbers:

Rev - $ 1.288M
NPAT - $ 295M
EPS - $ 0.40c

A 30 PE multiple would put them at $12, 35 at $14 and 40 at $16.

Wow sb9 .....about the first time you numbers are higher than mine

Whatever they pretty good eh.

Do you ever go out 10 years plus and do a DCF valuation ..or are you a PE multiples person?

sb9

20-11-2018, 10:30 AM

Wow sb9 .....about the first time you numbers are higher than mine

Whatever they pretty good eh.

Do you ever go out 10 years plus and do a DCF valuation ..or are you a PE multiples person?

Don't do DCFs winner, not as clever as you just bit of FA, PE and lots of gut feel....:)

BlackPeter

20-11-2018, 10:35 AM

My FY19 forecast numbers are based today's trading update and taking into account previously reported numbers:

Rev - $ 1.288M
NPAT - $ 295M
EPS - $ 0.40c

A 30 PE multiple would put them at $12, 35 at $14 and 40 at $16.

Question is - do markets support in the current climate a PE of 30 for a growth company with growth rates which are - longterm - clearly unsustainable?

I guess how long can you keep growing with a CAGR of above 20 when all you sell is milk which any other competitor (admittedly with some transitional effort) can produce (at the same cost) as well? It's not rocket science - humans are producing A2 milk since the stone ages ... and they are milking A2 cows for at least the last 10,000 years ;);

reacher

20-11-2018, 10:35 AM

up over $11 now. This reminds me of last Feb went from 9.50 odd to $11 in morning then up to $12 or so after asx opened then to $14 within the next two weeks after that :t_up:.

With over 7% of shares shorted in the last few days I expected some similar crazy price action when they have to cover. Unless the Aussies had much higher expectations!

see weed

20-11-2018, 10:40 AM

Offloaded a few due to above, sometimes the Kiwis get a bit too enthusiastic before the Aussie open. PS-Hope I'm wrong.
I thought that last Feb. The highs for three days....20/2/18= $9.40.....21/2/18=$11.87.... 22/2/18=$14.62c. I will hold and see where Aussi takes us.

winner69

20-11-2018, 10:43 AM

couta1

20-11-2018, 10:45 AM

I thought that last Feb. The highs for three days....20/2/18= $9.40.....21/2/18=$11.87.... 22/2/18=$14.62c. I will hold and see where Aussi takes us. You never know,I've seen it go both ways, that's why I place a bet each way.Lol

allfromacell

20-11-2018, 10:47 AM

Question is - do markets support in the current climate a PE of 30 for a growth company with growth rates which are - longterm - clearly unsustainable?

I guess how long can you keep growing with a CAGR of above 20 when all you sell is milk which any other competitor (admittedly with some transitional effort) can produce (at the same cost) as well? It's not rocket science - humans are producing A2 milk since the stone ages ... and they are milking A2 cows for at least the last 10,000 years ;);

The growth potential out of China has a lot more room to run, they tripled sales growth in the 11/11 event and still sold out in the first few hours of the event. In my opinion that most of the Chinese mothers who buy A2 IF don’t know or care about the whole A1 v A2 debate. A2’s board and marketing team has shown they have a very good strategy that continues to work and understand that market very well. I think a PE of 30 is more than justified especially when taking into account the cash on hand.

The fresh milk side of the business is nice for diversification but really isn’t that important imo. Granted there is always a high risk when dealing with China but you have to give credit where it is due with A2MC’s ability to come in and snatch just shy of 6% market share so quickly in such a competitive market.

BlackPeter

20-11-2018, 10:55 AM

Earnings growth F19 35%-40% and law of big numbers or growth rate decay says next year earnings growth could be less than 30%

So PE at 30 ok for now? Or too high?

I don't think that a 2 year time window is large enough to assess whether the PE of 30 is a fair deal. As long as they could grow sustainably with more than 20 % for say the next 10 years (that's more than 6-folding their earnings in 10 years), would I happily pay for a PE of 30 ... but not sure about this assumption.

I expect A2's market growth to drop in line with other diary giants turning towards A2. Converting all cows would be something like 10 years (if they start now), but obviously - the competition will move in earlier and hey, they started already.

How long will the sun keep shining for A2 to reap the benefits of their early start? Another 3 to 5 years? Doubt it will be longer ...

peat

20-11-2018, 10:59 AM

While share buy back might be "nice" it doesn't solve an underlying problem. That is increasing supply. For me, I am looking forward to an announcement on further investment in the supply chain.

they have security of supply from SML but also mention a strategic arrangement with Fonterra (whatever that means - does Fonterra even produce A2 milk?)

Whether this is sufficient is hard to gauge still ?

sb9

20-11-2018, 11:01 AM

I don't think that a 2 year time window is large enough to assess whether the PE of 30 is a fair deal. As long as they could grow sustainably with more than 20 % for say the next 10 years (that's more than 6-folding their earnings in 10 years), would I happily pay for a PE of 30 ... but not sure about this assumption.

I expect A2's market growth to drop in line with other diary giants turning towards A2. Converting all cows would be something like 10 years (if they start now), but obviously - the competition will move in earlier and hey, they started already.

How long will the sun keep shining for A2 to reap the benefits of their early start? Another 3 to 5 years? Doubt it will be longer ...

Well, the below article highlights what happens when the US market takes off... (may have to copy and paste link in your browser)

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12162583

Small snippet from the article...

Detlefsen said a2 Milk was making "huge inroads" into the US retail market.

dobby41

20-11-2018, 11:06 AM

does Fonterra even produce A2 milk?

Yes they do - A2 by Anchor
https://a2milk.nz/?gclid=Cj0KCQiA28nfBRCDARIsANc5BFBsZLZj03w3mCbc_hZ 60cRkCZ9yhunF76JIx1O43s5i4RQ-8Z98POwaAmMBEALw_wcB

minimoke

20-11-2018, 11:12 AM

I thought that last Feb. The highs for three days....20/2/18= $9.40.....21/2/18=$11.87.... 22/2/18=$14.62c. I will hold and see where Aussi takes us.Thats always the plan. While we have had quite good turnover so far today ($9m and now at $11.02) we are just bit players until Oz opens.

see weed

20-11-2018, 11:31 AM

You never know,I've seen it go both ways, that's why I place a bet each way.Lol
Ok ladies and gentleman lay your bets the ASX opens in half hour. A2m open at 10.12c and rising after that. I have a one way bet and that is a place but not a win:D.

silu

20-11-2018, 11:37 AM

Ok ladies and gentleman lay your bets the ASX opens in half hour. A2m open at 10.12c and rising after that. I have a one way bet and that is a place but not a win:D.

I only ask for a close above A$10. More than a million shares traded on the NZX cannot be wrong. Will be a good day.

reacher

20-11-2018, 11:47 AM

Ok ladies and gentleman lay your bets the ASX opens in half hour. A2m open at 10.12c and rising after that. I have a one way bet and that is a place but not a win:D.

Predicting shorters to try and push the action down then recover their positions all the way up!

Sideshow Bob

20-11-2018, 11:48 AM

Is this finally going to be the shorters BBQ that everyone talked about a couple of weeks ago??

bull....

20-11-2018, 11:51 AM

nah i go short today i think , see how the agm goes first though.

see weed

20-11-2018, 11:52 AM

I only ask for a close above A$10. More than a million shares traded on the NZX cannot be wrong. Will be a good day.
What NZ time does the agm start? Is it 1pm our time?

silu

20-11-2018, 11:54 AM

What NZ time does the agm start? Is it 1pm our time?

Yes 1pm NZ/11am Melbourne time

777

20-11-2018, 11:54 AM

What NZ time does the agm start? Is it 1pm our time?

Yes.......

carrom74

20-11-2018, 11:57 AM

Offloaded a few due to above, sometimes the Kiwis get a bit too enthusiastic before the Aussie open. PS-Hope I'm wrong.

Hey Couta...You could have waited i suppose...ASX looking good now.

couta1

20-11-2018, 12:11 PM

Hey Couta...You could have waited i suppose...ASX looking good now. I follow the VWAP not the spikes.PS-Happy with my call.

Sideshow Bob

20-11-2018, 12:25 PM

Spiked at $10.49, now back to $10.27

silu

20-11-2018, 12:31 PM

Well, the below article highlights what happens when the US market takes off... (may have to copy and paste link in your browser)

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12162583

Small snippet from the article...

Detlefsen said a2 Milk was making "huge inroads" into the US retail market.

I only have word-of-mouth out of the US with regards to A2 milk but what I have is that more soccer mums like A2 milk. Scientifically proven or not.

peat

20-11-2018, 12:36 PM

I only have word-of-mouth out of the US with regards to A2 milk but what I have is that more soccer mums like A2 milk. Scientifically proven or not.

but soccers not that big in USA ?

silu

20-11-2018, 12:40 PM

but soccers not that big in USA ?

Oddly enough a term that is firmly in the American vernacular. Lately they also have Instagram handles like foodbabe, fitmama etc and like to compare impressions on the different pics of their children. They have a very similar haircut and at shops they often like to speak to the manager.

winner69

20-11-2018, 12:49 PM

Oddly enough a term that is firmly in the American vernacular. Lately they also have Instagram handles like foodbabe, fitmama etc and like to compare impressions on the different pics of their children. They have a very similar haircut and at shops they often like to speak to the manager.

No wonder you’re a great investor silu knowing **** like that

Any more interesting insights like that that’ll point to A2 winning in the US

Sideshow Bob

20-11-2018, 12:51 PM

but soccers not that big in USA ?

I follow various A2 social media accounts.

A2 USA only has 72,000 Facebook followers - UK has 50,000 and Singapore 25,000. Instagram is a waste of time, and all have <5k following.

Although having said that, not sure why you would follow a milk company on social media (I only do it as a shareholder). Just clutter up your feed.....;)

winner69

20-11-2018, 12:52 PM

What’s up guys ...the share price is sinking ..and it looked so promising for a while.

silu

20-11-2018, 12:55 PM

No wonder you’re a great investor silu knowing **** like that

Any more interesting insights like that that’ll point to A2 winning in the US

It was a lighthearted comment. Didn't expect it to warrant a reply like that.

winner69

20-11-2018, 12:58 PM

It was a lighthearted comment. Didn't expect it to warrant a reply like that.

Sorry we obviously misunderstood each other.....but I thought the comments were quite insightful

Social media does influence consumer demand.

minimoke

20-11-2018, 12:58 PM

It was a lighthearted comment. Didn't expect it to warrant a reply like that.
Some of us saw it the way. Sense of humour going out the back door along with SP.

silu

20-11-2018, 01:01 PM

Ha yea. English is not my first language and despite 20+ years here the intent still sometimes goes way over my head.

minimoke

20-11-2018, 01:03 PM

Hmmm. Joy of technology. Not getting anything here other than a music stream. and now its gone quiet. I don't like late starts to any meeting.
Edit - up and running: had to hit stop then start again. Haven't missed anything!

sb9

20-11-2018, 01:07 PM

Hmmm. Joy of technology. Not getting anything here other than a music stream. and now its gone quiet. I dont like late starts to any meeting.

Mine is all up and running smoothly, no problems.

minimoke

20-11-2018, 01:20 PM

I think I heard that right.11/11 sold out in 20 minutes. It was a managed cap.

sb9

20-11-2018, 01:28 PM

Watching ASM online, must say Jayne comes across very confident and has good presentation skill, very clear and articulate.

minimoke

20-11-2018, 01:31 PM

Watching ASM online, must say Jayne comes across very confident and has good presentation skill, very clear and articulate.Agree, as does the Chair.

44wishlists

20-11-2018, 01:39 PM

Agree, as does the Chair.

Concur that. Excellent presentation skill and body gesture.

minimoke

20-11-2018, 01:39 PM

3.85% of proxies against JH being re appointed Director. A bit higher than I thought it would be.

petty

20-11-2018, 01:41 PM

Any announcements about USA? IF releases in this market at all?

minimoke

20-11-2018, 01:46 PM

Apparently, globally, CEO's expect to be on the board. Thus no conflict in JH's dual roles

minimoke

20-11-2018, 01:49 PM

JH says her time priority is ATM and she is very good at managing time. If she cant she will stand down from other roles (presumably Tennis)

sb9

20-11-2018, 01:51 PM

JH says her time priority is ATM and she is very good at managing time. If she cant she will stand down from other roles (presumably Tennis)

And, time to move on from CEO share sale issue.

minimoke

20-11-2018, 01:53 PM

19.82% proxies against Hinton - gives a clue how well support JH is. This will be his last period as Director
and 3.65% against WE-B
and 32.2% against increase in director rem pool. Seems they want to add an extra person (perhaps USA)

Sideshow Bob

20-11-2018, 02:08 PM

I think I heard that right.11/11 sold out in 20 minutes. It was a managed cap.

Just received this article - mentioned Devondale and Bellamys, but not A2.

https://www.nutraingredients-asia.com/Article/2018/11/19/Supplements-bestselling-category-on-Singles-Day-with-Swisse-the-top-imported-brand?utm_source=newsletter_daily&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=20-Nov-2018&c=vyBYncJCWKVlikIJWj31hOsvQwt4ODC3&p2=

minimoke

20-11-2018, 02:14 PM

History lesson. German Holstien cows were A1 and very good at making milk - thus the expansion of A1 milk. Massive investment in in A1 cows now - so not going to change quickly. ATM has he "brand" eg Kleenex tissues - every has a tissue made by someone but refers to it as Kleenix

Takes climate change seriously. Reviewing operations to check how they are impacting on climate.

minimoke

20-11-2018, 02:17 PM

Synlait can keep up with immediate / medium future demand. But they are actively planning (with Fonterra) to ensure there is capacity to meet additional future demand

JH = "A1 protein free dairy nutrition for often vulnerable consumers" in two largest consumer economies in the world (USA / China) so marketing spend wil continue.

Chair - No word on dividends but cash has to be put to good use. They want to grow rapidly and get capital gains to shareholders - better way then dividends to return value to shareholders. When no better options for cash, dividends will be looked at. Not lying back sitting on cash pool.

JH got paid out 66% of Qantas shares vested. Vested transition shares due Aug 2019 (smaller tranche) will be sold due to prior commitments. Will hold a small % of shares. Will begin to grow ordinary shares.

Board likely to buy back from market shares for vesting so no dilution of shares.

No take or Pay element in agreement with Fontera (Jane - Fonterra isnt a publicly traded company. Mistake on her part)

FX isnt a material issue - but will look at it if need be

bull....

20-11-2018, 02:37 PM

glad i decided not to wait for the agm to start lol short rules haha nothing new in agm , pe too high world wide anything with high pe being sold off

Ggcc

20-11-2018, 02:44 PM

glad i decided not to wait for the agm to start lol short rules haha nothing new in agm , pe too high world wide anything with high pe being sold off
I think A2 is holding up ok in comparison to the market as a whole. Red arrows for miles.

minimoke

20-11-2018, 02:50 PM

Human intervention in product manufacture is near on impossible (in response to needles in strawberries) (seems they may look at more secure caps)

Demand growth in China is higher than expected.

Thats a wrap. See,ms they have plans in place to invest in areas that will return maximum capital growth to shareholders - but to early to say what they are. Unlikely to be UHT / yoghurt in your local supermarket.

Disc holder - and will remain a holder.

44wishlists

20-11-2018, 02:52 PM

I think A2 is holding up ok in comparison to the market as a whole. Red arrows for miles.

The bull probably having more fun shorting other stocks than A2MC at present. Or is the bull being burnt and turning into a A1-free milking "bull"?

bull....

20-11-2018, 03:03 PM

a2 results were not flash , pumped up by fx for the quarter , pe is way high . anyway ive always said just playing it to it gets back to a more sensible pe ... its a great company

Beagle

20-11-2018, 03:18 PM

Solid result, very strong growth in net profit. PE seems reasonable to me considering the growth and outlook but the lack of dividend means its not an ideal fit for where I want to position my portfolio for 2019 and beyond. Not holding at present but this stock keeps getting better value as earnings grow so its on my watch list.

whatsup

20-11-2018, 03:24 PM

S Hers very hard to please in this market, gun shy to say the lease and now that the AGM is out of the way theres no point holding until the next "update " !!

Ggcc

20-11-2018, 03:29 PM

I just think the whole market is in turmoil. I have transferred some risky shares at a loss to some safer shares and that has helped. I will continue holding both ATM and SML

Leftfield

20-11-2018, 03:35 PM

Been busy out and about today and after my initial concerns that the sales were lower than my expectations I’ve decided to continue to hold because;

1.) I’m happy with Sb9’s and Winners assessments of value (my workings had today's val at $NZ11.50 at PE of 30 but happy at $12.00 which is also is the figure quoted by the Coppo report at per this screen pic.)
10167
2.) These latest results do not include China’s Singles Day which from anectodotal evidence has seen further ATM market share increases and as alluded to at the AGM today ATM’s sales were conservatively ‘managed’.
3.) The first qtr excludes much benefit from the NZ market Frontera relationship
4.) USA market gains remain promising and 'on track' as this article (https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20181119005791/en/a2-Milk-Company™-Announces-Strong-Results-Significant) describes.
5.) Growing cash balance a great buffer to enhance Shareholder value.

My conclusion, ATM will continue to outperform the NZX50 index and remains a keeper for me.

couta1

20-11-2018, 03:38 PM

89c price spread, gotta love that volatility even on a good news day.

bull....

20-11-2018, 03:45 PM

this price action tells me its going lower .. whats a good pe ? less than 20 ? 10 ?

sb9

20-11-2018, 03:48 PM

89c price spread, gotta love that volatility even on a good news day.

Well, since it listed on ASX its become very good trading stock and that's presents good opportunity for long term holders to enter on days when shorts pile on.

sb9

20-11-2018, 03:52 PM

this price action tells me its going lower .. whats a good pe ? less than 20 ? 10 ?

Sure, why not 5 for a company that soon to be $1bln + in revenue, 40c forward EPS, nil debt and sitting on huge pile of cash to find a home for great investment for future growth.

couta1

20-11-2018, 04:01 PM

this price action tells me its going lower .. whats a good pe ? less than 20 ? 10 ? Come on bull, short it but don't keep on downramping it.

sb9

20-11-2018, 04:06 PM

Come on bull, short it but don't keep on downramping it.

There is good place called HC across the ditch for those that want to downramp, plenty of them there....

Snow Leopard

20-11-2018, 04:09 PM

this price action tells me its going lower .. whats a good pe ? less than 20 ? 10 ?

Ever considered changing your user name to bear.... ?

777

20-11-2018, 04:12 PM

Ever considered changing your user name to bear.... ?

I have been wanting to ask that for sometime.

winner69

20-11-2018, 04:16 PM

Did Jayne say something not going well or something to cause this 9%/10% swing this afternoon

777

20-11-2018, 04:20 PM

Did Jayne say something not going well or something to cause this 9%/10% swing this afternoon

She has more shares coming and she is going to sell those too.

Leftfield

20-11-2018, 04:21 PM

Sure, why not 5 for a company that soon to be $1bln + in revenue, 40c forward EPS, nil debt and sitting on huge pile of cash to find a home for great investment for future growth.

Well said sb9.

allfromacell

20-11-2018, 04:22 PM

Did Jayne say something not going well or something to cause this 9%/10% swing this afternoon

She said she plans to sell most of the shares she will receive in her next tranche. Her excuse was tax obligations and completing the payment for an investment she made in 2016. The SP was at around $10.60 NZD when she said that so already on the way down although surely sped up a bit.

She says she will then hold her remaining shares and build a bigger stake from future performance rights.

I was actually quite impressed with her today up until this...

trader_jackson

20-11-2018, 04:27 PM

was doing so well in the first 2 hours... Mr Market didn't start reading the AGM preso until around midday was it? Maybe thought there was no need to read it as can only be fantastic so share price must go up 5+%

Beagle

20-11-2018, 04:27 PM

She has more shares coming and she is going to sell those too.

Once a trougher always a trougher. She has a long history of selling shares soon after they vest when at JetStar. Its the culture that she is setting for the company that worries me. I really liked Geoffery Babbage...he's gone and so am I. I think we could see some PE contraction but Bull's (Bear with a sore paw ?) outrageous comment is miles off base. I think this could continue to range trade for quite some time. Ideal traders stock. One has to consider the low base this has come off over the last few years and the fact that there's circa 13m shares still in management hands that cost them two parts of next to nothing.

ohpark0119

20-11-2018, 04:28 PM

sb9

20-11-2018, 04:30 PM

peat

20-11-2018, 04:37 PM

Ha yea. English is not my first language and despite 20+ years here the intent still sometimes goes way over my head.
mate its not you, I have a degree in English and these prolific posters forget to make their actual meaning clear all the time.

SARCASM DOES NOT WORK ON THE INTERNET

Ggcc

20-11-2018, 04:40 PM

mate its not you, I have a degree in English and these prolific posters forget to make their actual meaning clear all the time.

SARCASM DOES NOT WORK ON THE INTERNET
Not a truer sentence. I struggle with people who are sarcastic and then they actually mean what they say...... All I know is longterm this share is Stella until further notice.

minimoke

20-11-2018, 04:45 PM

She said she plans to sell most of the shares she will receive in her next tranche. Her excuse was tax obligations and completing the payment for an investment she made in 2016. The SP was at around $10.60 NZD when she said that so already on the way down although surely sped up a bit.

She says she will then hold her remaining shares and build a bigger stake from future performance rights.

I was actually quite impressed with her today up until this...There is tension between two statements she made.
The forst was that she need to sell her next tranche of shares to fund existing obligations.

The second was that she has to me to work as a director / CEo and in the interest of adding capital value to shareholders.

Pre-existing debt obligations I understand. Now I'm no CEO but i figure there must be a number of ways of meeting that obligation. And it doesn't seem to make sense to me that you would "sacrifice" shares that a you are committed to increasing in value when you must have other resources to fund that obligation.

So what she is saying, essentially, is her ATM shares will be the cheapest way (best use of her capital) to meet the obligation.

(Disc - ATM I am swayed by their professional presentations and promises so remain a holder.)

minimoke

20-11-2018, 04:49 PM

mate its not you, I have a degree in English and these prolific posters forget to make their actual meaning clear all the time.

SARCASM DOES NOT WORK ON THE INTERNETThe benefit of my lack of education is I got your sarcasm ( I'm still wondering how to make best use of my first free year of education)

Ggcc

20-11-2018, 05:03 PM

The benefit of my lack of education is I got your sarcasm ( I'm still wondering how to make best use of my first free year of education)
Your humour is understandable. Winner I don’t know if he/she is being sarcastic, or saying stuff for the hell of it. Then posts something with loads of intelligence and is random with valuations. Sorry for using you as an example winner there are others 😊

peat

20-11-2018, 05:12 PM

The benefit of my lack of education is I got your sarcasm ( I'm still wondering how to make best use of my first free year of education)

haha very funny use of sarcasm (I think) at the worst possible time

Joshuatree

20-11-2018, 05:14 PM

Husband and wife team using the same nick:D

peat

20-11-2018, 05:50 PM

there must be a number of ways of meeting that obligation. And it doesn't seem to make sense to me that you would "sacrifice" shares that a you are committed to increasing in value when you must have other resources to fund that obligation.

So what she is saying, essentially, is her ATM shares will be the cheapest way (best use of her capital) to meet the obligation.

Either that or she is uninterested in taking any real risk , which doesnt sit that well with a corporate leader (who needs to take risks to get rewards).
She's a trougher , but a good one. Can shareholders live with that?

winner69

20-11-2018, 05:56 PM

44wishlists

20-11-2018, 07:24 PM

Twitter the other day

a2MilkUK (@a2MilkUK)
13/11/18, 5:44 AM
a2 Milk™ is on special offer in Tesco. Pick up a carton for just £1 and see if you, like thousands of others, love the difference.

Offer ends 20th November

Find your local Tesco here: a2milk.co.uk/find pic.twitter.com/HTlNdPNdww

a2Milk USA is giving away free milk (Day 2 today) as part of their latest marketing campaign. You can check out more details of the promotion on their Instagram page. "a2milkusa"

Baa_Baa

20-11-2018, 08:07 PM

Either that or she is uninterested in taking any real risk , which doesnt sit that well with a corporate leader (who needs to take risks to get rewards).
She's a trougher , but a good one. Can shareholders live with that?

Very dissappointing that an otherwise good company result would be shafted by a pre-announcement that the CEO intends to flick her entitlement shares again in 2019 when they vest, albeit paid out by a share buy back. This beggars belief, have these muppets got no idea about managing investor sentiment?

Lewylewylewy

20-11-2018, 08:10 PM

Beagle

20-11-2018, 08:17 PM

Very dissappointing that an otherwise good company result would be shafted by a pre-announcement that the CEO intends to flick her entitlement shares again in 2019 when they vest, albeit paid out by a share buy back. This beggars belief, have these muppets got no idea about managing investor sentiment?

There was one a time when employees were given stock in a company to ensure their interests where aligned with the outcome of the business. Now some folk just want to ditch stock to get cash asap, rock up late to the party (after the hard work was done) and demand a pay rise.

Someone is trying to milk this thing. If i were a shareholder, I'd be pushing for a vote to get rid of the cow.

No matter what story Herdlicker comes up with the optics on this look really, really bad and it's not a good look for the board either.

carrom74

20-11-2018, 08:35 PM

I watched almost the whole AGM and the cold response she gave about selling her shares again due to "tax obligations" was just unbelievable... despite the whole media pessimism/sp drop on the previous selling,she just does not get it and why would you? Also the chairman spoke about how "difficult" was to get her on board as if he got the "kohinoor" of CEO's...i am still not convinced on the reasoning of not giving cash instead of shares(when you have a truck load and not being distributed...)

The last interview about her selling of shares on Bloomberg for "tax obligations"....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lByBtCKM98s

For investors like me ...the sentiment sounds very negative and my patience is certainly being tested.

minimoke

20-11-2018, 09:04 PM

She's selling shares in August 2019- how does she know what her tax obligations are already. Isn't she on some sort of pay tax as you earn now?

couta1

20-11-2018, 09:21 PM

She's selling shares in August 2019- how does she know what her tax obligations are already. Isn't she on some sort of pay tax as you earn now? She obviously had trouble paying her tax bills on her humble 8 million a year prior salary at Jetstar, the poor dear has only made 4 million since joining A2 a few months back so could be having cash flow issues.

couta1

20-11-2018, 09:29 PM

There was one a time when employees were given stock in a company to ensure their interests where aligned with the outcome of the business. Now some folk just want to ditch stock to get cash asap, rock up late to the party (after the hard work was done) and demand a pay rise.

Someone is trying to milk this thing. If i were a shareholder, I'd be pushing for a vote to get rid of the cow. Herd Licker has done a great disservice to loyal shareholders and destroyed shareholder value solely for her own benefit, a terrible example from someone who is yet to add any measurable value to the company.

Baa_Baa

20-11-2018, 09:31 PM

She's selling shares in August 2019- how does she know what her tax obligations are already. Isn't she on some sort of pay tax as you earn now?

There's lots of possible reasons other than PAYE tax obligations, but to forecast the CEO's intent to cash in her performance incentives for whatever reason so far in advance is just incredibly naieve, imo. She has shafted an otherwise good company result and this behaviour is vindicated by the Board and Chair! Good grief. I agree with the Beagle, the "optics" on this are really bad. They've screwed-up again, digging an even deeper hole that will dog them until at least the next performance announcement.

Have they no idea, this is basic stuff - a CEO or other insiders forecasting their cash-outs will always rock investor confidence. Without that confidence they have to outperform every quarter, right when growth performance would otherwise be acceptably declining as growth off a high base settles into a sustainable pattern.

I'm still invested but I am worried about how they will mitigate this appalling gaff. They seem to have no idea how to manage investor sentiment.

Baa_Baa

20-11-2018, 10:28 PM

So. Which is worse: that you have a heads-up of the intention to cash at first opportunity, OR, to find out August 2019 after the event?

Disc: No financial interest, not holding, never have.

It's a moot point, the disclosure has been made. We shareholders need to figure out how or whether we act on it, imho.

see weed

21-11-2018, 08:40 AM

There's lots of possible reasons other than PAYE tax obligations, but to forecast the CEO's intent to cash in her performance incentives for whatever reason so far in advance is just incredibly naieve, imo. She has shafted an otherwise good company result and this behaviour is vindicated by the Board and Chair! Good grief. I agree with the Beagle, the "optics" on this are really bad. They've screwed-up again, digging an even deeper hole that will dog them until at least the next performance announcement.

Have they no idea, this is basic stuff - a CEO or other insiders forecasting their cash-outs will always rock investor confidence. Without that confidence they have to outperform every quarter, right when growth performance would otherwise be acceptably declining as growth off a high base settles into a sustainable pattern.

I'm still invested but I am worried about how they will mitigate this appalling gaff. They seem to have no idea how to manage investor sentiment.
I voted no for everything yesterday. I still think Beagle should be CEO. But we got what we got, then on the other hand we know what to expect. What is lickers next payout...$2 or $3m?, and what was their profit again? Was it $200m or so? How much did they say they had in the bank $300m or so, correct me if i'm wrong. I don't agree with what the Licker has done, but $3m is not a drop in the bucket, probably more like a half a small cup in the bucket. I can live with a half cup, whether she deserves it or not is another story.

blackcap

21-11-2018, 08:54 AM

No matter what story Herdlicker comes up with the optics on this look really, really bad and it's not a good look for the board either.

It's actually more of a bad reflection on the board than on Herdy. I mean those shares are hers and if she wants to sell them that is her choice. It is the board that issued these shares to her without any escrow so responsibility rests fully with the board. I think you have a board that has lost focus there. I would be looking for a refresh if this type of remuneration keeps being granted.

waikare

21-11-2018, 08:54 AM

Herd Licker has done a great disservice to loyal shareholders and destroyed shareholder value solely for her own benefit, a terrible example from someone who is yet to add any measurable value to the company.

In total agreement with you Coutal, a lot of crap regarding her tax obligation's, surely she must have some understanding of the tax system, even in Aust. they have PAYE.

777

21-11-2018, 09:26 AM

I am a bit disappointed in the final voting results. While accepting that they would all be passed I thought the against votes would be higher with the board members resolutions. The results don't reflect the dissatisfaction of shareholders in the company evident here and supported by reports in the media by various commentators. They won't learn anything from them, sadly.

bull....

21-11-2018, 09:35 AM

hammer time today hopefully

Muppett

21-11-2018, 09:43 AM

hammer time today hopefully

You and see_weed probably hoping for a FBU hammer?
Let us all know your exit/entry points and how much money you make when it reverts back to normal swing trading volatility so we can join in the riches.

dobby41

21-11-2018, 09:49 AM

silu

21-11-2018, 09:52 AM

Interesting article - US farmers doing the same as Fonterra in complaining about the A2 story and false advertising.
http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/c42fef55/a2-milk-ceo-not-worried-by-action-by-us-producer-group.html

Streisand Effect?!

Muppett

21-11-2018, 09:52 AM

bull....

21-11-2018, 10:05 AM

You and see_weed probably hoping for a FBU hammer?
Let us all know your exit/entry points and how much money you make when it reverts back to normal swing trading volatility so we can join in the riches.

i mentioned i was going short yesterday before aus open

sb9

21-11-2018, 10:12 AM

Muppett

21-11-2018, 10:12 AM

i mentioned i was going short yesterday before aus open

You did. Hope it works for you.
What target price / range do you have?

Muppett

21-11-2018, 10:16 AM

It won't be long before someone from US has a go at taking over ATM. Dean Foods already had a go back in 2015.

What was there offer and why did they fail?

sb9

21-11-2018, 10:25 AM

What was there offer and why did they fail?

Here is the link, basically ATM rejected their bid.

https://www.smh.com.au/business/freedom-foods-and-us-partner-dean-foods-scrap-a2-milk-takeover-bid-20150831-gjbu5k.html

mfd

21-11-2018, 10:31 AM

I watched most of the meeting yesterday, and it's hard to say the company is doing anything other than exceptionally well. Huge growth over recent years, and further growth on the way. Well managed and controlled despite obvious challenges with such high growth rates. Obviously there's some unhappy people out there who bought in at high prices, but that's not the companies fault.

Happy holder here, most of mine were bought at 60c or so, last package I bought at 8.50 and I'll buy more if prices get down to that kind of level again without significant news.

Muppett

21-11-2018, 10:42 AM

Here is the link, basically ATM rejected their bid.

https://www.smh.com.au/business/freedom-foods-and-us-partner-dean-foods-scrap-a2-milk-takeover-bid-20150831-gjbu5k.html

Thanks.
At one stage the dodgy Deans had a 19% stake in A2.
It would be interesting to know what they currently own.

Yesterday at the AGM the Trougher said that 30% of A2 investors come from outside Aus/NZ.

I have no idea of the 70% Aus/NZ split, lets say 50/20. Hence 80% of investors off-shore.
A takeover would be easy enough to accomplish.

bonne vie

21-11-2018, 10:43 AM

Lots of discussion still going on re CEO shares sale - can I bring this back to basics re the shares she sold and going to sell. This is the way I see it.
1) Shares sold to date (80%) and the second tranche (20%) to be sold are those to reimburse for loss of Qantas shares
2) Board has accepted that in hindsight - cash may have been a better option
3)Shares are being sold to meet financial commitments made prior to ATM appointment
4) Indication given that ongoing performance shares will be accumulated
If/when performance shares are sold - then the discussions to date are more relevant. IMHO