ATM - A2 Milk Corporation Limited

[sb9]

Lots of discussion still going on re CEO shares sale - can I bring this back to basics re the shares she sold and going to sell. This is the way I see it.
1) Shares sold to date (80%) and the second tranche (20%) to be sold are those to reimburse for loss of Qantas shares
2) Board has accepted that in hindsight - cash may have been a better option
3)Shares are being sold to meet financial commitments made prior to ATM appointment
4) Indication given that ongoing performance shares will be accumulated
If/when performance shares are sold - then the discussions to date are more relevant. IMHO

Well put, the second tranche of sales when they happen next year would worth around $2m for her based on current price. Not even a pinch for a $7bln company.

People are reading too much into this and getting hung up. As someone pointed out which is lesser of evil, being open now about her intention to sell or knowing after she sold thro' a notice.

As I said before its not great look, but its not her fault blame the BOARD.

[couta1]

Looks a bit oversold this morning. Wouldn't be surprised if it went back to $10.30 to $10.40 when ASX opens.HaHa it can get a lot more oversold than this as you know, hard to predict movements although I got it right yesterday.

[minimoke]

Well put, the second tranche of sales when they happen next year would worth around $2m for her based on current price. .Purely academic I know, But how does a private person end up with a remaining $2m tax liability after paying 80% already of said liability. I'm presuming her ATM salary is greater than her quantas one. and at ATM she is getting paid $1.5m a year. Giving a tax liability of say $500,000 a year. - most of which will be deducted at source.

[sb9]

Purely academic I know, But how does a private person end up with a remaining $2m tax liability after paying 80% already of said liability. I'm presuming her ATM salary is greater than her quantas one. and at ATM she is getting paid $1.5m a year. Giving a tax liability of say $500,000 a year. - most of which will be deducted at source.

IIRC, during the AGM question time she mentioned about some sort of investment commitment as well when asked.

[Muppett]

Purely academic I know, But how does a private person end up with a remaining $2m tax liability after paying 80% already of said liability. I'm presuming her ATM salary is greater than her quantas one. and at ATM she is getting paid $1.5m a year. Giving a tax liability of say $500,000 a year. - most of which will be deducted at source.

That's easy to answer.
She's a liar.

[mfd]

IIRC, during the AGM question time she mentioned about some sort of investment commitment as well when asked.

Correct, I got the impression that the money was predominantly to settle an investment decision she had made in 2016, i.e. she'd already committed the bonus shares quantas has promised, A2 matched most of her expected payout, she sold to pay off existing investment commitments. Obviously I don't know the details of the investment.

[minimoke]

IIRC, during the AGM question time she mentioned about some sort of investment commitment as well when asked.Presumably then an investment that will give her a greater return on capital than shares in ATM -.

[couta1]

Presumably then an investment that will give her a greater return on capital than shares in ATM -. Like a month in the Caribbean.

[dobby41]

Presumably then an investment that will give her a greater return on capital than shares in ATM -.

Presumably.
She knows what her investments are and we don't.
Could be that she has some investments that are partly paid and she knows when she has to pay the rest.
I have some that are partly paid and I don't know when the call will be - tricky sometimes to find $30-40k in a week or 2 when called but you invest eyes open.

[Leftfield]

Trying to move on from the CEO knocking..... here's what the NZ Herald says about the results. (https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12163355)

[minimoke]

Trying to move on from the CEO knocking..... here's what the NZ Herald says about the results. (https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12163355)CEO contributed precisely zip to those results.

[minimoke]

Down to $9.85 half an hour after opening - those Ozzies sure know how to destroy capital.

[winner69]

Down to $9.85 half an hour after opening - those Ozzies sure know how to destroy capital.

The market giveth (all the way to $14.60 odd) but the maketh also taketh away

Old Me P saying

[Muppett]

SP needs a Trade Me non-binding indicative proposal.

[see weed]

Am looking forward to the HY results in about 12 weeks or 6 weeks after the Christmas holidays :D. Sp should be a lot stronger by then, or when shorters in Aussie get board with it.

[Lego_Man]

Down to $9.85 half an hour after opening - those Ozzies sure know how to destroy capital.


Easy come, easy go.

[kiora]

Am looking forward to the HY results in about 12 weeks or 6 weeks after the Christmas holidays :D. Sp should be a lot stronger by then, or when shorters in Aussie get board with it.

When the Aussies get their surf board out?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_cbsyUritIk

[winner69]

From twitterland a random call

Mark Lister (@MarkListerNZ)
22/11/18, 7:31 AM
A good day ahead for a2 Milk shares methinks.


Please note only gurus and awesome cool cats can make random calls on the A2 share price. Methinks it could be such a good day that 11 bucks is possible.

[minimoke]

I've given it a lot of careful though anf have decided to put Herdlickers share sale behind me and move on. I've concluded it was essentially a poor Board decision and cash should have been offered instead. While I accept its not a good look I also have to accept it is her right to do as she likes with her own finances. In the end I have decided ATM is not Herdlicker. I remain of the view opportunities outweigh risks and this remains a solid long term hold. So for the time being I remain a holder, though a somewhat frustrated one at that. I'm now looking forward to SML's AGM (which unfortunately I wont be able to get to in person) and hope next week will end a bit more positively.

[allfromacell]

Goldman has released research today with regards to the regulatory changes 'China: New Cross-Border E-commerce policy: A clear positive signal to imported goods'. There was some more information released last night on the official Chinese government website that states that imported goods sold through CBEC will be viewed as ‘Personal Use’ items, and not require registration or a filing process.

It's all in Chinese so I don't understand it but Goldman is pretty positive.

[minimoke]

Goldman has released research today with regards to the regulatory changes 'China: IN part it says
"Although the news didn’t specify any time limit for the upcoming new policy enhancements, we believe the policy changes will largely lift concerns over the legitimacy of selling adult supplements, infant formula and cosmetics and other categories through the CBEC channel, at least in the near to medium term.It’s also worth noting that the new policy will increase the single transaction threshold to RMB5000 from RMB2000 currently.

........... Lastly, given that China authorities officially view CBEC imported goods as ‘Personal Use’ items, we see the government is likely encouraging consumer traffic to shift to the CBEC channel from the daigou (individual resellers) channel, and inconsequence will further tighten daigou sales (personal luggage or direct parcel shipping) under the new E-commerce law".

Seems this overhanging risk now is removed. Looking forward to a good day today.

[silu]

Found the link out of China if anyone is interested http://news.cnstock.com/news,bwkx-201811-4301193.htm

[see weed]

From twitterland a random call

Mark Lister (@MarkListerNZ)
22/11/18, 7:31 AM
A good day ahead for a2 Milk shares methinks.


Please note only gurus and awesome cool cats can make random calls on the A2 share price. Methinks it could be such a good day that 11 bucks is possible.
:t_up::D:t_up:

[see weed]

I've given it a lot of careful though anf have decided to put Herdlickers share sale behind me and move on. I've concluded it was essentially a poor Board decision and cash should have been offered instead. While I accept its not a good look I also have to accept it is her right to do as she likes with her own finances. In the end I have decided ATM is not Herdlicker. I remain of the view opportunities outweigh risks and this remains a solid long term hold. So for the time being I remain a holder, though a somewhat frustrated one at that. I'm now looking forward to SML's AGM (which unfortunately I wont be able to get to in person) and hope next week will end a bit more positively.
Good post. Me to:t_up:

[Ggcc]

It looks like I may get my shirt back on opening yay

[Leftfield]

Possible reason for some SP traction today. (https://hotcopper.com.au/attachments/goldman-sachs-cbec-update-pdf.1370389/?filename=goldman+sachs+CBEC+update.pdf) Looks like Chinese Govt will not be making feared changes to Daigou trading channel.

10168

[winner69]

From twitterland a random call

Mark Lister (@MarkListerNZ)
22/11/18, 7:31 AM
A good day ahead for a2 Milk shares methinks.


Please note only gurus and awesome cool cats can make random calls on the A2 share price. Methinks it could be such a good day that 11 bucks is possible.

Gurus and awesome cool cats got it right .....almost there with that 11 bucks ...cool

[winner69]

Where’s bull.... today?

Bit quiet without him

[minimoke]

Gurus and awesome cool cats got it right .....almost there with that 11 bucks ...coolWe need the usual patience to wait for Oz to open. They will have had some time to digest the news so it will be interesting to see their reaction. NZ sometimes gets a bit ahead of itself - but at this point I'll happily take any gain

[dobby41]

Gurus and awesome cool cats got it right .....almost there with that 11 bucks ...cool

The optimism shown here is just amazing to watch.
2 days ago the same things said - then down to $10.

[bull....]

Where’s bull.... today?

Bit quiet without him


was busy this morning doing other things other than markets , but im back in front of my computer now laughing at the volatility in a2 lol i was out yesterday as i was thinking dow would be up last night as traders like to square up ahead of long weekends and theres an old saying on wall st about holiday week reversals.

anyway so glad everyones happy .

[minimoke]

The optimism shown here is just amazing to watch.
.This is no place for Negative Nellies. You need something to help keep grasping to this roller coaster and optimism is it.

[minimoke]

Oz initial impression good. AUD$20m traded already and SP currently at AUD$10.08 but all over the place

[Ted2]

Just got off plane in Melbourne and massive A2 advertising presence on a number of outside billboards. Nice to see...

[silu]

If I understand shorting and TA correctly a close over A$10 would make one want to close that short position right? Yesterday we had 0.52% of issued capital as short.

[minimoke]

Will we see $11.00 again today? Seems like a long time between milky drinks.

[sb9]

Will we see $11.00 again today? Seems like a long time between milky drinks.

Really, been loooooooooooooooooooooooooooog time between drinks, should I say milky drinks.

Glad to have picked up a small top up parcel last week around the $10 mark.

Well we've SML's ASM next week on Wed 28th, can't wait for that.

[hardt]

The certaintanty of fundamental performance of ATM is worth more than the wildly schizophrenic behaviours of market participants and commentators.


Thank you for the free 10% swing trades.

[peat]

A FORMAL UPDATE
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/327245

[minimoke]

A FORMAL UPDATE
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/327245And a very good one at that. ATM SP was being suppressed because of the uncertainties around these regulations. That uncertainty is now removed so that risk is removed so its onwards and upwards once again. We can now go back to the detail provided at the AGM which was all good news.

[Muppett]

And a very good one at that. ATM SP was being suppressed because of the uncertainties around these regulations. That uncertainty is now removed so that risk is removed so its onwards and upwards once again. We can now go back to the detail provided at the AGM which was all good news.

Why is it on wards and upwards? The SP is capped at $12.20 for a long time into the future.
Nothing very revealing in the announcement.

By the end of next week there will be an opportunity to purchase shares at under $10.

[minimoke]

Why is it on wards and upwards? The SP is capped at $12.20 for a long time into the future. SP currentyl $10.38 so I am more than happy to go onwards and upwards to $12.20. We can agree its not if, but when?


Nothing very revealing in the announcement. Market seems to think differently (currently up 3.8% for the day.


By the end of next week there will be an opportunity to purchase shares at under $10.This is what ATM does. As long as the lows get higher and the highs go higher as well, its a roller coaster worth staying on.

[Muppett]

I'd like it to go up, up and up, but don't think it will for awhile yet.

The announcement came out at 3.17pm. SP has been tracking South ever since.

I agree, this is what ATM does.

[minimoke]

I'd like it to go up, up and up, but don't think it will for awhile yet.

The announcement came out at 3.17pm. SP has been tracking South ever since.

I agree, this is what ATM does.We've known about it since first thing this morning - see earlier posts above in the day.

[Muppett]

We've known about it since first thing this morning - see earlier posts above in the day.

The official company release was at 3.17pm today on the NZX and ANZSecurities website.
GS and ML and other earlier posts from 3rd parties??? One guy even said he couldn't read it all because it was in Chinese.
What does this mean?:eek2:

[mondograss]

A2 icecream anyone?
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12164057

[minimoke]

The official company release was at 3.17pm today on the NZX and ANZSecurities website.
GS and ML and other earlier posts from 3rd parties??? and other "analysts". ATM's is simply another interpretation.

One guy even said he couldn't read it all because it was in Chinese.
What does this mean?:eek2:He cant use Google Translate?

[777]

What does this mean?:eek2:

That ATM and SML are slow in advising the market.

[BlackPeter]

Before we all get too excited (again) - might be worthwhile remembering that the SP is at current still below the MA200, though admittedly - close.

Might be worthwhile to wait whether it manages to take off from the MA200 (and stays above, not just a brief flight finished by a rather unpleasant landing ...) - quite bumpy experience at the moment.

Question is - do we expect hype to take control again? I guess it is possible, but isn't it more likely that people will look into what is sustainable and price the company accordingly assuming a realistic PE and sustainable growth rates?

Fun data: backward PE (2012 - 2018) is 161; PE based on 2018 earnings is 38.5; forward PE (based on 2019 consensus) is 28 and forward PE based on analyst forecasts for the next 3 years is 25;

It is probably debatable, whether the current PE ratios (as above) are "fair", but if people talk about rising SP's, than they seem to think ATM is still too cheap?

What would be an apropriate PE for ATM in a time of PE contraction? And what sustainable growth for say the next 10 years are we assuming to justify this PE?

[Muppett]

He cant use Google Translate?

Brilliant answer.

[t.rexjr]

A2 icecream anyone?
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12164057

10169 Ask and you shall receive

[Ggcc]

10169 Ask and you shall receive
Where is this taken? Plus thank you for sharing

[mondograss]

Nice, I didn’t realize they’d actually got on with making A2 ice cream. I mostly made my comment in jest but it wouldn’t be the worst idea in the world for ATM and/or SYM to buy out some of Fonterra’s assets if they’re being sold. Provided the value stacks up of course. Gotta do something with all that spare cash.

[Leftfield]

Thanks T-rex and Mondo for the posts re A2m Ice-cream. Exciting development in key Aust market.

Meanwhile an NBR article (behind their pay wall,) describes how three NZ analyst firms have upgraded their expectations for ATM. FNZC see val at at NZ$12.20. Forsyth call a target price of $13.65. Milford are cited as upgrading expectations tho it seems they do not give a SP projection.

[minimoke]

Where is this taken? Plus thank you for sharingThis will be a Woolworths Australia product. For those into food labels, ingredients are Reconstituted a2 Milk [Skim (52%)], Cream [From a2 Milk (27%)], Glucose Syrup (Wheat), Sugar, Maltodextrin, Vegetable Origin Emulsifier [471 (Soy)], Vegetable Gums (412, 410, 407a), Natural Flavour, Natural Colour (160a).

From a marketing perspective the advertising says "Our cows produce a great tasting fresh milk that is naturally rich in A2 protein - You'll love the difference".

[t.rexjr]

Mini is right with Woolworths. It's off the net. The sign says 'new' but the pic would've been from early 2016. Not sure of it's current production as every time I've checked it's 'out of stock'

Further research shows Coles ond Woolworths stopped stocking a2 ice cream and cream in mid 2017

Countdown here in NZ stock a non a2, A2 ice cream. http://applebyfarms.co.nz/

[see weed]

Morningstar new recommendation today is down from $14.60 to $13.70:t_down:. I wonder how they work that one out.....throwing a dart....

[silu]

If you want to beat the monkey throwing a dart you have to think like one.

[minimoke]

Morningstar new recommendation today is down from $14.60 to $13.70:t_down:. I wonder how they work that one out.
They get to meet around a board room table.

Then they order their coffees (A Venti vanilla latte with extra caramel and whipped cream, steamed to 180 degrees, with whole milk and extra whipped cream and caramel in a short cup on the side or a Venti upside down, caramel macchiato, steamed with half and half to 108 degrees, extra caramel lining the cup, then caramel on top of the drink, then extra whipped cream, then even more caramel on the top of that, and cinnamon on top of that

Then they discuss their latest Instagram / Snapchat / Grinder whatever social media hook-ups that weekend

Then they discuss the latest sports results

Then their coffees arrive and they spend the next half hour complaining about the temperature, density of froth and depth of flavour of the beans.

Then the raise the latest issues with their performance cars and how the marque isn’t living up to expectations

Then the older / wiser ones, as an aside, complain about the increase in next terms school fees and how Matilda and Rupert will just have to expect less on their next overseas school holidays.

Then someone mentions the meeting agenda.

Item one (quickly worked through) is reviewing success with last round of SP predictions

Item two is reviewing current predictions. Conversation goes something like “lets knock a buck off ($14.60)” “no – that’s too obvious – punters wont think we have done much analysis to come up with a round number” “Right. Best we don’t make it more than a buck or punters will think we were pretty useless first time around” “Right, lets knock $0.90 off” “Done. It has a nice ring to it.”

Meeting adjourns for lunch.

[minimoke]

This afternoon game. Who has just quit 2.7m shares at $10.43

[Beagle]

They get to meet around a board room table.

Then they order their coffees (A Venti vanilla latte with extra caramel and whipped cream, steamed to 180 degrees, with whole milk and extra whipped cream and caramel in a short cup on the side or a Venti upside down, caramel macchiato, steamed with half and half to 108 degrees, extra caramel lining the cup, then caramel on top of the drink, then extra whipped cream, then even more caramel on the top of that, and cinnamon on top of that

Then they discuss their latest Instagram / Snapchat / Grinder whatever social media hook-ups that weekend

Then they discuss the latest sports results

Then their coffees arrive and they spend the next half hour complaining about the temperature, density of froth and depth of flavour of the beans.

Then the raise the latest issues with their performance cars and how the marque isn’t living up to expectations

Then the older / wiser ones, as an aside, complain about the increase in next terms school fees and how Matilda and Rupert will just have to expect less on their next overseas school holidays.

Then someone mentions the meeting agenda.

Item one (quickly worked through) is reviewing success with last round of SP predictions

Item two is reviewing current predictions. Conversation goes something like “lets knock a buck off ($14.60)” “no – that’s too obvious – punters wont think we have done much analysis to come up with a round number” “Right. Best we don’t make it more than a buck or punters will think we were pretty useless first time around” “Right, lets knock $0.90 off” “Done. It has a nice ring to it.”

Meeting adjourns for lunch.

:lol: :lol:

[ziggy415]

Did no one else see TV three this morning...your Jane voted top boss in nz

[see weed]

Don't put me off my breakfast:t_down:.

[777]

Did no one else see TV three this morning...your Jane voted top boss in nz

But she has done nothing yet.

[minimoke]

Did no one else see TV three this morning...your Jane voted top boss in nzShes been in teh job for 4 months so shouldn't even be eligible to enter into any top boss sweapstake. Total nonsense! (Unless its a comp for fastest destruction of shareholder wealth on taking over CEO job)

[couta1]

Shes been in teh job for 4 months so shouldn't even be eligible to enter into any top boss sweapstake. Total nonsense! (Unless its a comp for fastest destruction of shareholder wealth on taking over CEO job) Award for Trougher of the year would do her proud.

[sb9]

Did no one else see TV three this morning...your Jane voted top boss in nz

Here is the link to the article...

http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU1811/S00812/isentia-unveils-nzs-top-ceos-in-new-leadership-index.htm

[allfromacell]

5 million shares just went through on the ASX :scared:. Some lucky institution just picked a steal grabbing theses on a forward PE of no more than 28.

[minimoke]

5 million shares just went through on the ASX :scared:. Some lucky institution just picked a steal grabbing theses on a forward PE of no more than 28.?? I'm only showing a total for the day so far of 1.3m shares traded on the ASX

[allfromacell]

?? I'm only showing a total for the day so far of 1.3m shares traded on the ASX

Maybe your's is delayed?

Mine: https://i.imgur.com/4IP4Y7Z.png

[minimoke]

Maybe your's is delayed?

Mine: https://i.imgur.com/4IP4Y7Z.png
Maybe I am - but heres what I show

[allfromacell]

Maybe I am - but heres what I show

Your price action seems consistent with the live data, very strange.

[Leftfield]

News just out.....Macquarie adding to their various stakes

Summary for Macquarie Group Limited

For last disclosure,--
(a) total number held in class: 37,995,045
Macquarie Bank Limited - 31,334,703
Macquarie Investment Management Global Ltd - 169,311
Macquarie Investment Management Australia Ltd - 5,613,628
Macquarie Investment Management Ltd - 877,403
(b) total in class: 734,797,297
(c) total percentage held in class: 5.17%

For current holding after ceasing to have substantial holding,--
(a) total number held in class: 31,805,413
Macquarie Bank Limited - 25,050,373
Macquarie Investment Management Global Ltd - 182,362
Macquarie Investment Management Australia Ltd - 5,695,835
Macquarie Investment Management Ltd - 871,343
Macquarie Securities (New Zealand) Ltd - 5,500
(b) total in class: 734,797,297
(c) total percentage held in class: 4.33%

[777]

They actually have reduced their holdings.

[Leftfield]

They actually have reduced their holdings.


Oops thanks my mistake.

[Baa_Baa]

They actually have reduced their holdings.

Yes they have. Why? "Borrowing to Return". It helps to read the disclosure.

We in NZ aren't really tuned into the large brokers/fundies game on the ASX, their shorting, going long, contrary trades, algo bots trading, who they represent, etc etc. It is confusing for many, probably not even on the radar for most, and frankly it's immaterial to the average Joe who buys a stake and rides out the day to day stuff. Just distracting noise best ignored, unless you're a very savvy well resourced and informed trader.

[Xerof]

Did no one else see TV three this morning...your Jane voted top boss in nz

Those TV Three people have a wicked sense of humour don't they?

[Leftfield]

Nice gain for the day...... no doubt the SML results helped. Let's hope the upwards momentum continues in the weeks ahead.

[winner69]

Last time Mark and I agreed ATM share price took off

Will go over 11 bucks oday and maybe 12 bucks tomorrow


Mark Lister (@MarkListerNZ)
29/11/18, 6:43 AM
Eventful night. Powell suggests US interest rates are close to neutral, driving a big rally in stock, plus our 6wk old baby slept through the night. NZX likely to get some good support today, particularly growth stocks like ATM I would think.

[silu]

I'm usually not one for short term gains but with the Dow raising after the Fed Chair speech but more importantly A2 broke several TA hurdles yesterday on the ASX so wise TA money should flood in and short positions will be covered.

[JohnnyTheHorse]

I'm usually not one for short term gains but with the Dow raising after the Fed Chair speech but more importantly A2 broke several TA hurdles yesterday on the ASX so wise TA money should flood in and short positions will be covered.

My thinking too. Took a position on open.

[dreamcatcher]

Resistance today @ A$10.38 (NZ$11.06 @.9384)

[winner69]

This Huawei carry on ...here and Australia

Could China do something to cut back on IF from ANZ as a retaliation.

[Lego_Man]

https://thedailyblog.co.nz/2018/11/30/from-a-table-by-the-window/

I raise you:

https://thedailyblog.co.nz/2018/11/30/when-it-comes-to-huawei-corporate-media-think-national-interest-is-the-dividend-china-gets-for-owning-us/

[winner69]

https://thedailyblog.co.nz/2018/11/30/from-a-table-by-the-window/

That cafe looks familiar from days bygone

Ouch ATM not giving me a return ..that would be bad outcome

[Ggcc]

Looks like a big drop due to rebalancing

[couta1]

Looks like a big drop due to rebalancing HaHa just shows you that TA comes second to the big boys games at any point, chart showed a breakout was about to occur a few days ago with the bolly bands squeezing along with other indicators showing a positive turn. Continuation of any breakout will now be determined by the Trumpets mouth over the weekend.Lol

[JohnnyTheHorse]

My thinking too. Took a position on open.

Well that didn't work out :)

[couta1]

Well that didn't work out :) By the end of next week you could well be saying the exact opposite.

[Baa_Baa]

HaHa just shows you that TA comes second to the big boys games at any point, chart showed a breakout was about to occur a few days ago with the bolly bands squeezing along with other indicators showing a positive turn. Continuation of any breakout will now be determined by the Trumpets mouth over the weekend.Lol

I thought the TA was working quite well, Daily chart log scale. I only TA the A2M as it has the trading volume.

To simplify my usually very messy charts, I've removed all the Indicator noise and kept only the price action, supports & resistance lines and just the basic 50/200 EMA's.

You can see that yesterday the SP failed (indecision candle) at the top (resistance) of the Andrews Pitchfork (a kind of shorter term channel), suggesting a down day today, which happened.

The sell off today wasn't some big boys smashing the buy side, it was progressive selling into the bids, declining throughout the trading day with a few failed rallies. (drill into the 1 minute chart).

The rainbow background is the Fibs, it's remarkable how often the share price respects the .382 and .618 fibs. The .50 fib isn't really a fib, but it comes into play frequently with this high volume volatile stock.

I don't use this chart for prediction, I use it for reaction. Having a plan either way the SP moves is the basis, but TA suggests where the decision points are likely to be.

When I'm truely focused on the inflection points, on the day I'll drill down into the 1 minute chart, but that's totally consuming and not easily sustained if one has a day job as well.

TA is good, even essential imho, but it takes practice, time, confidence to act on it, willingness to flex with the learnings. But without it, I'd have nothing to do with something as volatile as this share is!

10185

[Snow Leopard]

Good old TA.

A pattern for every occaision. :mellow:

[minimoke]

C'mon Jan. You are paid a lot of money to make sure what you say is correct. Spot the mistake:

"

The new e-commerce law comes into effect from 1 January 2018, with the latest


policy providing for a further three-month grace period to 31 March 2019, to


ensure a smooth transition by CBEC companies to meet the new regulatory


requirements.





The Company and its major trading partners selling English label products to


Chinese consumers are confident all requirements will be met on or before 31


March 2019.





The a2 Milk Company Limited


Jayne Hrdlicka


Managing Director and CEO


End CA:00327700 For:ATM Type:GENERAL Time:2018-12-03 08:30:41"

[Beagle]

You would think that official announcements to the NZX would get proof read before release wouldn't you. Amateur hour yet again...its got to be a bit of a worry when the bare basics are not done right.

[NZSilver]

Its only 2017 isn't it?

[longy]

Its only 2017 isn't it?

So what year is it ATM? :)

[sb9]

Onwards and upwards from here....santa rally come early for ATM holders.

[777]

You would think that official announcements to the NZX would get proof read before release wouldn't you. Amateur hour yet again...its got to be a bit of a worry when the bare basics are not done right.

I guess it is because we don't pay her enough. Peanuts, monkeys or something.

[Southern_Belle]

Onwards and upwards from here....santa rally come early for ATM holders.just clawing back Fridays losses

[minimoke]

You would think that official announcements to the NZX would get proof read before release wouldn't you. Amateur hour yet again...its got to be a bit of a worry when the bare basics are not done right.
I see they have now amended it. Where do I send my Proof reading invoice to?

[winner69]

I see they have now amended it. Where do I send my Proof reading invoice to?

Better than Heartland ...they haven’t amended the two errors in recent presentation.

[couta1]

Onwards and upwards from here....santa rally come early for ATM holders. Plenty of live Shorts to keep things in check.

[hardt]

Only you old sooks could get mad at a clerical error from an admin staff

[Sideshow Bob]

Latest Keith Woodford installment - Page 31

https://issuu.com/farmersweeklynz/docs/farmers_weekly_december_3_2018/1?ff&e=30768707/66097468

[minimoke]

Only you old sooks could get mad at a clerical error from an admin staffGood to see the Exec of ATM reading this forum and issuing a second amending announcement afterwards. (not getting mad - just a bit cross)

[TideMan]

Only you old sooks could get mad at a clerical error from an admin staff

It's not the error that was upsetting. It's the lack of care by the clerk's boss in not picking it up.
It reinforces the impression that Jayne is a rip-s..t-and-bust operator.

[stef]

It's not the error that was upsetting. It's the lack of care by the clerk's boss in not picking it up.
It reinforces the impression that Jayne is a rip-s..t-and-bust operator.
That's right, it is her document, must have been in a rush to get to tennis LOL

[IAK]

That's right, it is her document, must have been in a rush to get to tennis LOL

LOL. Although, share price doesn't seem to care?

[Leftfield]

A recent take on what the Daigou channel means for A2M (https://www.9news.com.au/2018/12/03/12/32/australia-baby-formula-chinese-buyers-daigous-30000-packages-per-day-a2-milk). 30,000 parcels a day!

[davflaws]

LOL. Although, share price doesn't seem to care?
The day the share price is dependent on the CEO picking up a typo in a report is the day I cash up and buy a rental.

[allfromacell]

Jayne Hrdlicka, CEO of the A2 milk company, said.
“You can imagine… every month we are increasing production quite significantly.”

https://vimeo.com/304038218

[peat]

Jayne Hrdlicka, CEO of the A2 milk company, said.
“You can imagine… every month we are increasing production quite significantly.”

https://vimeo.com/304038218

but A2 dont actually produce do they? Dont they just buy it off SML? Forgive me if my understanding is incomplete.

[minimoke]

but A2 dont actually produce do they? Dont they just buy it off SML? Forgive me if my understanding is incomplete.
Maybe referring to their investment in SML - and perhaps letting slip their plans for their cash

[dreamcatcher]

DOW pre-trading up over 680 points so expecting a GREAT day tomorrow :p

[Leftfield]

but A2 dont actually produce do they? Dont they just buy it off SML? Forgive me if my understanding is incomplete.

Ahem, perhaps you are splitting hairs.

ATM has multiple supply contracts with multiple producers in multiple countries. This is the essence of ATM's disruptive 'low capital' model.

Sure, ATM's IF is currently primarily produced by SML, however this can change, particularly as the partnership with Fonterra develops.

[BlackPeter]

Sure, ATM's IF is currently primarily produced by SML, however this can change, particularly as the partnership with Fonterra develops.

Not so sure about this.

Synlait says they are holding the IP to the A2 infant formula (there is more than milk in it ;); as well as holding the import licence for the A2 formula into China. I don't see why we should not believe them.

Nobody else can legally manufacture this formula nor sell it into China.

Any other company first would need to develop their own formula (which would be different to the Synlait A2 formula) - and than they would need to go through the whole approval process with the Chinese authorities.

Not impossible, but it would take considerable time and money.

In my view it is more likely that A2 will use the other A2 sources to produce different A2 milk products (like liquid milk, cheese, ...) which are lower margin.

Obviously - A2 could go for a takeover of Synlait, than they would own the IP and the licences. Mental note ... buy some more SML ;);

[Leftfield]

Not so sure about this.

Synlait says they are holding the IP to the A2 infant formula (there is more than milk in it ;); as well as holding the import licence for the A2 formula into China. I don't see why we should not believe them.

Nobody else can legally manufacture this formula nor sell it into China.

Any other company first would need to develop their own formula (which would be different to the Synlait A2 formula) - and than they would need to go through the whole approval process with the Chinese authorities.

Not impossible, but it would take considerable time and money.


Good points and I agree in general. However, I would not rule out the option that ATM could well go down the IF route with another supplier/producer.

This could be achieved by establishing another product such as LIF (Liquid infant formula) or even under the umbrella of another brand licensed to A2.

You say developing another brand/formula is possible but would take "considerable time and money" however a take over of SML would be just as expensive (or more expensive) and could be just as fraught.

[44wishlists]

Not so sure about this.

Synlait says they are holding the IP to the A2 infant formula (there is more than milk in it ;); as well as holding the import licence for the A2 formula into China. I don't see why we should not believe them.

Nobody else can legally manufacture this formula nor sell it into China.

Any other company first would need to develop their own formula (which would be different to the Synlait A2 formula) - and than they would need to go through the whole approval process with the Chinese authorities.

Not impossible, but it would take considerable time and money.

In my view it is more likely that A2 will use the other A2 sources to produce different A2 milk products (like liquid milk, cheese, ...) which are lower margin.

Obviously - A2 could go for a takeover of Synlait, than they would own the IP and the licences. Mental note ... buy some more SML ;);

A take over would require Bright Dairy & Food Co., Ltd. (https://www.marketscreener.com/BRIGHT-DAIRY-AND-FOOD-CO-6496293/) approval. And I am very sure the Chinese wouldn't sell their stakes as easy as you may think. Simply their holding in SML isn't just about money, it's a national importance, security of dairy supply to China.

[Leftfield]

A take over would require Bright Dairy & Food Co., Ltd. (https://www.marketscreener.com/BRIGHT-DAIRY-AND-FOOD-CO-6496293/) approval. And I am very sure the Chinese wouldn't sell their stakes as easy as you may think. Simply their holding in SML isn't just about money, it's a national importance, security of dairy supply to China.

Quite right and why would A2M want to upset their Chinese owner in this crucial market.

Adding to the points I make above, supplying the ATM IF market in China is crucial to ATM (and SML), however there is also a need for ATM to lessen it's Chinese exposure, by expanding into other Asian markets.

While SML is important to ATM in the Chinese market, we should not ignore the possibility that another ATM IF from another supplier/producer could be used under license to A2, to supply other Asian markets, Korea, Japan, Singapore and even India.

(I stress this is all pure speculation from a long term holder and ATM watcher - DYOR.)

[peat]

if SML makes the IF (and they make it under a formula patented license )
and if SML has the license to sell it in China
I'm struggling with what A2M actually do to add value in this milk supply chain.
:p

[BlackPeter]

if SML makes the IF (and they make it under a formula patented license )
and if SML has the license to sell it in China
I'm struggling with what A2M actually do to add value in this milk supply chain.
:p

Good question. But first a clarification - I said that SML hold the IP for the formula, not that it is a patent. There are many things which are not patentable (including recipees and similar), but others are still not allowed to copy it (try to create an exact copy of Coca Cola and sell it and you will find out what I mean).

It is my understanding that SML created this formula specifically for A2 ... and I am pretty sure that they signed contracts which make sure that they can't sell this formula (and certainly not under the A2 brand) to anybody else than A2.

Ah yes - and A2 obviously owns the brand - i.e. the name and probably the design of the cans.

So - I guess it looks like these two sit together in the boat. My initial point was only that it wouldn't be easy for A2 to just get somebody else to produce as well infant formula (and certainly not the current IF they sell into the Chinese market).

[BlackPeter]

A take over would require Bright Dairy & Food Co., Ltd. (https://www.marketscreener.com/BRIGHT-DAIRY-AND-FOOD-CO-6496293/) approval. And I am very sure the Chinese wouldn't sell their stakes as easy as you may think. Simply their holding in SML isn't just about money, it's a national importance, security of dairy supply to China.

You are right. I didn't intended to suggest that a full takeover of SML by ATM is a serious and likely option. I sort of hoped the wink (;)) would give people a hint, but it looks like I failed with this assumption :crying:.

[minimoke]

Vanguard Group Inc has taken a fancy to ATM. Now holding 5%

[mfd]

Vanguard Group Inc has taken a fancy to ATM. Now holding 5%

Likely to be almost entirely passive holdings. Just doing what the indices tell them.

[Filthy]

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/farming/109131977/fonterras-first-quarter-profit-down-14m-on-same-time-last-year

Interesting article on the possible sale of Tip-Top. Wonder if ATM/SML could be possible suitors. or maybe a float? Who knows

[minimoke]

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/farming/109131977/fonterras-first-quarter-profit-down-14m-on-same-time-last-year

Interesting article on the possible sale of Tip-Top. Wonder if ATM/SML could be possible suitors. or maybe a float? Who knowsI think Westland Co-op would be a better option. Their values align quite well with SML.

From Westlands last Annual Report.

However, as previously discussed, full implementation of the strategy is likely to require significant new capital. The Board is conscious we have relatively high debt levels and limited financial flexibility. It is therefore timely to look ahead and consider the options that can provide a sustained,higher payout and improve the company’s financial flexibility. Obtaining new capital would make a significant difference to the Co-operative.

[hardt]

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/farming/109131977/fonterras-first-quarter-profit-down-14m-on-same-time-last-year

Interesting article on the possible sale of Tip-Top. Wonder if ATM/SML could be possible suitors. or maybe a float? Who knows

A rich bugger once said Tip-Top lacks a certain Je na sais quoi.

Tip-Top is cheap and the ice-cream sucks... SML aint going near it.

[petty]

I wondered about the Westland/SML combo recently also. My view is that SML wouldn't go near a Co-op model with a barge pole so would look to acquire Westland outright. I'm no expert in this but I would suppose this sale would then require Westland Co-op member approval to proceed. My guess is this would get messy pretty quickly.

[minimoke]

I wondered about the Westland/SML combo recently also. My view is that SML wouldn't go near a Co-op model with a barge pole so would look to acquire Westland outright. I'm no expert in this but I would suppose this sale would then require Westland Co-op member approval to proceed. My guess is this would get messy pretty quickly.
Given SML's approach to farming, this might be a positive alternative to a co-op model. Could be messy. Could be worth it.

[Southern_Belle]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-12-05/the-australian-company-selling-china-on-easier-to-digest-milk

[dobby41]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-12-05/the-australian-company-selling-china-on-easier-to-digest-milk

AUSTRALIAN company

[hardt]

Jayne is purging...

[bull....]

Jayne is purging...

is it the first purge or the last purge?

new management will need to prove themselves. the share price gains were made on old management

[minimoke]

is it the first purge or the last purge?

new management will need to prove themselves. the share price gains were made on old management
Could be a few more. Michael Bracka hadnt been there long. A year and a bit - perhaps not enough runs on the board.

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/ATM/328082/292097.pdf

[Beagle]

Probably bring in more of her former girlfriends from JetStar so they can enjoy high tea at many of the Michelin star restaurants around the world.
Get rid of the old management after all they were such dreadful "underperformers" Good luck to holders...a poor CEO can really wreck havoc with a good company.

[Southern_Belle]

Jayne is purging... How low can she go ??? OUCH

[Balance]

Just under 50m shares shorted!

Either they are very right or going to be very wrong when they cover!

[couta1]

Just under 50m shares shorted!

Either they are very right or going to be very wrong when they cover! Shorts have had some severe burnings over the last couple of years and will continue to do so going forward.Lol

[dreamcatcher]

Recent NZ$ dollar strength versus A$ has not helped volatility.

Here's hoping that 12/12 Shopping Extravaganza may reward holders with a breakout SP

DOW futures appears to be recovering nicely for a positive Monday open (NZ Tues)

[Leftfield]

Nice to see ATM holding up well this week.

$10.89 at close today. At the end of Dec 2017 ATM was $8.07, so a gain for the year around 35% seems possible. Not bad given the overall state of the markets in 2018.

[Baa_Baa]

Nice to see ATM holding up well this week.

$10.89 at close today. At the end of Dec 2017 ATM was $8.07, so a gain for the year around 35% seems possible. Not bad given the overall state of the markets in 2018.

For sure, nice to see a true growth company SP rebelling against the the wider market doldrums. It will attract attention, money goes looking for upside when all around it's downside. Those 10/11 Oct lows were great buying but with the sentiment at the time it's understandable if few took advantage of it. Nevertheless, A2M (which I chart as ATM is too illiquid by comparison), the pattern described recently has broken out, back tested and it's the 200MA resistance above that's next on the agenda, with the declining trendline above that. Big ask in a sh1t market, but as long as those growth numbers keep coming in, it's on the cards.

[Leftfield]

For sure, nice to see a true growth company SP rebelling against the the wider market doldrums. It will attract attention, money goes looking for upside when all around it's downside. Those 10/11 Oct lows were great buying but with the sentiment at the time it's understandable if few took advantage of it. Nevertheless, A2M (which I chart as ATM is too illiquid by comparison), the pattern described recently has broken out, back tested and it's the 200MA resistance above that's next on the agenda, with the declining trendline above that. Big ask in a sh1t market, but as long as those growth numbers keep coming in, it's on the cards.

I agree with your TA..... don't forget the encouraging bollinger bands and MACD signals.

That said, given the general market uncertainty, all we need is for A2M to continue to outperform the NZX50 and I'll be happy.

[Leftfield]

Nice to see ATM back above $NZ11.00 today (hope I don't put a hex on it!)

Apparently Motley Fool is reporting that Goldman Sachs are noting that A2 had a strong month sales month in the Chinese on-line market. GS believes that the online sales pick-up since September has not yet been captured by the A2 share price and has a buy rating and NZ$13.40 (A$12.72) price target.

......as always DYOR

[carrom74]

Normally NZ follows ASX with ATM but today NZX seems to be weak with a 25cents difference with NZX price down. Wonder why??

[minimoke]

Normally NZ follows ASX with ATM but today NZX seems to be weak with a 25cents difference with NZX price down. Wonder why??ASX hasn't opened yet. ATM on the NZX is just playtime before the bell rings for proper start of day trading on the ASX

[couta1]

I see some company has noticed a so called Top Triangle pattern and reckons the price will fall to the $6.40-$7.00 range, these guys should have done more Geometry at school, obvious shorters or some other hidden motive.Lol

[couta1]

Finishes on an $11.08 NZ equivalent on a tough day, I love this stock it's been so good to me.

[peat]

I see some company has noticed a so called Top Triangle pattern and reckons the price will fall to the $6.40-$7.00 range, these guys should have done more Geometry at school, obvious shorters or some other hidden motive.Lol

It definitely looks like the current phase up (I will call it wave 4) looks corrective and hence there is likely to be more impulsive down movements.


10202


If waves 1,2,&3 as per my count shown were actually a,b,& c then our current phase would be a wave 1 again - but it really doesnt look like that to me

(Disclaimer - not short, not long ATM - long SML - so I have no interest in it going down and would prefer it didnt given the correlation with SML

[allfromacell]

Finishes on an $11.08 NZ equivalent on a tough day, I love this stock it's been so good to me.

It's been holding up surprisingly well during the recent market turmoil. Still no word on what's to be done with an everyday increasing pile of cash.

[Ggcc]

It's been holding up surprisingly well during the recent market turmoil. Still no word on what's to be done with an everyday increasing pile of cash.
Their money is going further and further with all this market turmoil. Cash is king in this scenario

[winner69]

Jeez ...Vanguard up to 7%

Bought 14 million shares the other day

Seems an awful lot to buy in one go just for passive tracking of indices. Mind you they bought heaps of FPH and CNU as well ...but no TRA

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/ATM/328636/292716.pdf

[Ggcc]

Jeez ...Vanguard up to 7%

Bought 14 million shares the other day

Seems an awful lot to buy in one go just for passive tracking of indices. Mind you they bought heaps of FPH and CNU as well ...but no TRA

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/ATM/328636/292716.pdf
They also own over 5% in SkyCity and FPH

[777]

They also own over 5% in SkyCity and FPH

See post 784

https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?8537-Fph/page53

[Leftfield]

Vanguard sees value and purchased 13.9 mill shares at $10.89 and makes me happy! :t_up:

[Leftfield]

With all the doom and gloom in the markets it is nice to see the Coppo report still favouring ATM/A2M, mentioning November statistics that milk formula exports ex Lyttelton are up 162% on the prior period.

This pic says it all....

.10213

[minimoke]

With all the doom and gloom in the markets it is nice to see the Coppo report still favouring ATM/A2M, mentioning November statistics that milk formula exports ex Lyttelton are up 162% on the prior period.

This pic says it all....

.10213And lets not loose sight of who is making the stuff.

[couta1]

A2 has been quite defensive of late, unlike some others I don't consider it that risky a stock to have an XXOS sized holding in.

[Leftfield]

A2 has been quite defensive of late, unlike some others I don't consider it that risky a stock to have an XXOS sized holding in.

Pretty much my thinking too Couta (67% of my portfolio.) Taking it all day by day. Good luck y'all, have a great Christmas!

[carrom74]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12180909

News like these does not help the sp anyways... Macro sensitive stocks like ATM which has a bearing on geo-political shake ups will bear the brunt...

Interesting and troubling times...

[couta1]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12180909

News like these does not help the sp anyways... Macro sensitive stocks like ATM which has a bearing on geo-political shake ups will bear the brunt...

Interesting and troubling times... Still babies gotta have milk, they don't need tech products.

[BlackPeter]

Still babies gotta have milk, they don't need tech products.

True - but than, billions of Chinese babys have been raised over the centuries without this special tinned A2 formula from New Zealand. Maybe, if they really must, they manage to do that again?

I believe that it is crucial for A2 (as well as SML) to keep the trading relationship with China intact. They probably would survive with this market breaking away, but their books would look ugly for years to come.

But than ... who knows - maybe the big orange haired baby in the white house needs lots of infant formula?

[couta1]

As always a bit of a sensational article by the Herald.

[carrom74]

[QUOTE=couta1;742046]As always a bit of a sensational article by the Herald.[/QUOTE

Didn’t help the SP too... all along the week she was so steady and this article came and the rest is all we know now couta.. I hope the news does not ruffle much

[couta1]

[QUOTE=couta1;742046]As always a bit of a sensational article by the Herald.[/QUOTE

Didn’t help the SP too... all along the week she was so steady and this article came and the rest is all we know now couta.. I hope the news does not ruffle much I highly doubt that article has anything to do with the SP drop, the whole market is custard like.

[carrom74]

http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2018-12/24/c_137695954.htm

This will result in lower tariffs with trade partners including New Zealand, Peru, Costa Rica, among others---A Snippet in the newsfeed listed above...

In this envoirnment... any news is good news... but the question is will A2 and SML benefit?...

[allfromacell]

http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2018-12/24/c_137695954.htm

This will result in lower tariffs with trade partners including New Zealand, Peru, Costa Rica, among others---A Snippet in the newsfeed listed above...

In this envoirnment... any news is good news... but the question is will A2 and SML benefit?...

Yes good news for the two companies and ATM in particular which continues to outperform the market. ATM is a high growth, high PE company which you would expect to under-perform in such turbulent times. The fact that it's been stubbornly holding up tells me the business is tracking along particularly well and in the companies words the 'unprecedented demand' continues (https://a2nutrition.com.au/home/stock-guarantee-announcement/).

[winner69]

A2M having a good day on the ASX today

Bodes well for good start to the year on NZX tomorrow

[couta1]

A2M having a good day on the ASX today

Bodes well for good start to the year on NZX tomorrow Not really winner, finished at an AU $10.64 equivalent on the NZX 2 days ago so pretty much ho-hum at this point.

[winner69]

WTF going on A2 share price

China problems again or something?

[BlackPeter]

WTF going on A2 share price

China problems again or something?

Normal bear market volatility?

But than - they are for the last year or so clearly in a downwards trending trading channel. I guess at some stage they need to find a new low in that channel, but ways to go.

[reacher]

Just following the same daily trends as US stocks with high P/E ratios.

[couta1]

WTF going on A2 share price

China problems again or something? Nothing to see here winner, completely normal A2 behaviour.

[couta1]

Normal bear market volatility?

But than - they are for the last year or so clearly in a downwards trending trading channel. I guess at some stage they need to find a new low in that channel, but ways to go. Lol, a year ago it was $7.66 NZ, if all shares had that sort of downtrend, the crowds would be ecstatic. PS-Just over a year ago it was $4.

[BlackPeter]

Lol, a year ago it was $7.66 NZ, if all shares had that sort of downtrend, the crowds would be ecstatic. PS-Just over a year ago it was $4.

Not quite. It was (exacly) one year ago $8.20. But yes, forgive me for having been slightly inaccurate - I should have said "in a downwards channel for the last 10.3 months". Here is the channel I am talking about:

10230

In case you are not quite clear - I printed the channel walls nice, fat and red for you ;);

[winner69]

BP ....pretty dismal eh

But channel might look different if you used ln(price) data (as the spotted one would suggest)

[Ggcc]

I think the charts look terrible due to all this Trump vs China tariff battle and people got spooked. Once half year figures come out next month we will see ATM rise again if only to $12 per share until full year guidance is given. That is my take on things. Business as usual

[couta1]

Not quite. It was (exacly) one year ago $8.20. But yes, forgive me for having been slightly inaccurate - I should have said "in a downwards channel for the last 10.3 months". Here is the channel I am talking about:

10230

In case you are not quite clear - I printed the channel walls nice, fat and red for you ;); Its amazing how much you can make on this share in a downtrend, it's a milky gift that just keeps on giving unless you bought and held at the top end.

[BlackPeter]

BP ....pretty dismal eh

But channel might look different if you used ln(price) data (as the spotted one would suggest)

Log wouldn't make much difference given the quite limited span. But feel free to check it out ...

[winner69]

Log wouldn't make much difference given the quite limited span. But feel free to check it out ...

Not a log scale but plotting ln(price). I got told off by the spotted one once for doing what you did.

[Balance]

Not quite. It was (exacly) one year ago $8.20. But yes, forgive me for having been slightly inaccurate - I should have said "in a downwards channel for the last 10.3 months". Here is the channel I am talking about:

10230

In case you are not quite clear - I printed the channel walls nice, fat and red for you ;);

If you plot the trend from beginning of 2017?

Looks like the uptrend is still intact.

Meanwhile, there are still 50m shares (a cool $500m) still short!

[couta1]

If you plot the trend from beginning of 2017?

Looks like the uptrend is still intact.

Meanwhile, there are still 50m shares (a cool $500m) still short! Yep over 6% shorts yet they dont seem to be doing much to the price overall of late, I wonder how many are going to hang around right up till the Feb result and risk being incinerated as they were last Feb.

[Ggcc]

Those Bollinger Bands are starting to get closer together. Let's hope that the price shoots up near delivery day of their results as I think it will.

[BlackPeter]

If you plot the trend from beginning of 2017?

Looks like the uptrend is still intact.

Meanwhile, there are still 50m shares (a cool $500m) still short!

Absolutely - as usual there are trends in trends in trends .... it all depends on your time window and your tolerance to suffering ...

[Balance]

Absolutely - as usual there are trends in trends in trends .... it all depends on your time window and your tolerance to suffering ...

Suffering?

You mean enjoying, right? Depending on the time frame of course!

Do a longer term chart, you will see what some happy holders mean.

[BlackPeter]

Suffering?

You mean enjoying, right? Depending on the time frame of course!

Do a longer term chart, you will see what some happy holders mean.

Well, it probably depends on your sense of enjoyment. Personally I do enjoy a drop of more than 30% from its peak (no matter at what point I started) much more if I am either short or on the sidelines. But yes, you are right - it is exciting to watch, and very happy for any holders who like the ride ... that's what markets are for.

Just a personal preferance - I don't like roller coaster rides either.

[Beagle]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12177036
Please excuse if this has been posted before. Bryan Gaynor not impressed with Herdlicka's conduct.

[44wishlists]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12177036
Please excuse if this has been posted before. Bryan Gaynor not impressed with Herdlicka's conduct.

Bryan Gaynor also suggested that "The second best performing company was Kathmandu under CEO Xavier Simonet"
I am in doubt after the latest KMD trading update.

[winner69]

Bryan Gaynor also suggested that "The second best performing company was Kathmandu under CEO Xavier Simonet"
I am in doubt after the latest KMD trading update.

Esp when he quoted Xavier - Simonet told the recent annual meeting: "We expect first half profits to be strongly above last year."

Our Jayne got lambasted in same article for lowering a revenue forecast

[Balance]

Esp when he quoted Xavier - Simonet told the recent annual meeting: "We expect first half profits to be strongly above last year."

Our Jayne got lambasted in same article for lowering a revenue forecast

Same Brian Gaynor who thought the sun shone out of Mark Welson's arse?

Until it all turned to custard when the light was shone on the mess left behind by said saviour of the NZX, Weldon?

Same Brian Gaynor of Milford who badmouthed Diligent (surprise, surprise!) after selling out and then, was rumoured to be buying back when the sp crashed down to under $4?

[Beagle]

Bryan Gaynor also suggested that "The second best performing company was Kathmandu under CEO Xavier Simonet"
I am in doubt after the latest KMD trading update.

Article was written 15 December 2018 and represents performance for 2018. Market shocker update was 3 January 2019.


Esp when he quoted Xavier - Simonet told the recent annual meeting: "We expect first half profits to be strongly above last year."

Our Jayne got lambasted in same article for lowering a revenue forecast

One would hope in the future he would be far more conservative with his choice of words but I won't hang around to find out because that was one of the biggest clangers I can recall in recent times. The word "strongly" above turning to eps negative really shocking. $2.00 coming as market confidence has been so badly eroded ?

[44wishlists]

[QUOTE=Beagle;742987]Article was written 15 December 2018 and represents performance for 2018. Market shocker update was 3 January 2019.

If Gaynor was referring to KMD's FY18 performance, he might had a point. But definitely not the case if he was referring to the 1H of FY19, nor 2H of calendar year of 2018. A piece of writing by Gaynor, plus featuring in NZHerald, I better go and read the story book of "Bark, George"

[winner69]

Jayne beefing up her team. Hope it doesn’t get as big as Hansen’s 52 man All Black squad

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/ATM/329192/293349.pdf

Melanie’s last job was running Roadside Operations at the National Roads & Motorists’ Association — I take it that’s not code for a stop-go chick in a high viz vest.

[777]

Lets hope they haven't been issued with an obscene pile of shares for working at ATM that they will sell next week.

[BlackPeter]

Lets hope they haven't been issued with an obscene pile of shares for working at ATM that they will sell next week.

I'd assume they first need to start before they can collect their shares they then may sell. Phil seems to start in April and with Melanie they don't seem to be too sure (first half of calender 2019)?

Assuming they follow Jane's outstanding conduct than I'd expect the sell off during Q2 2019.

[minimoke]

Jayne beefing up her team. Hope it doesn’t get as big as Hansen’s 52 man All Black squad

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/ATM/329192/293349.pdf

Melanie’s last job was running Roadside Operations at the National Roads & Motorists’ Association — I take it that’s not code for a stop-go chick in a high viz vest.Theres nothing in Melanie's background that excites me. So she has helped people with a flat battery get back on the road again. I would have thought that ATM was past the "start up" stage so why hire someone with this background?

[Beagle]

Lets hope they haven't been issued with an obscene pile of shares for working at ATM that they will sell next week.
Classic. Its the brazenness of Herdlicker that I don't like. Brazenly telling people she will sell shares in the future as and when they vest at a time that suits her. She might as well have said I am here for one person and one person only, MYSELF, I don't care about anyone else.


Theres nothing in Melanie's background that excites me. So she has helped people with a flat battery get back on the road again. I would have thought that ATM was past the "start up" stage so why hire someone with this background?
She might be good at friendly discussions over latte's with Jayne ? Personally i'm a little surprised both these new appointments didn't come from JetStar...jobs for your mates...

[minimoke]

Classic. Its the brazenness of Herdlicker that I don't like. Brazenly telling people she will sell shares in the future as and when they vest at a time that suits her. She might as well have said I am here for one person and one person only, MYSELF, I don't care about anyone else.

.Herdlickers is in a no-win situation then. Dont tell market in advance and she gets a hard time. Tell market in advance and she is brazen.

I'd sooner she said up front her plans - though appreciate its her own personal business. Doesn't take away the concert though, that if she is running a decent company she would be accumulating, not selling.

[Beagle]

Herdlickers is in a no-win situation then. Dont tell market in advance and she gets a hard time. Tell market in advance and she is brazen.

I'd sooner she said up front her plans - though appreciate its her own personal business. Doesn't take away the concert though, that if she is running a decent company she would be accumulating, not selling.

It just makes me sad. Former CEO Geoffrey Babidge had a very conservative, elderly statesman like manner about him that I really liked. There was none of the nonsense we see with Jayne, he was paid only half as much and built enormous value for ATM shareholders over the years. From what I can see all Jayne appears to have done is come along and started immediately milking the company for all she can get and hired a bunch of executives to help her, (at least one of whom is a former colleague from JetStar) These recent hires is staff to do work Geoff probably did as part of his role so all Jayne is doing is making life as cushy and comfortable as she can and adding what value ?, none from what I can see. If Geoff was still there, I would be too. He's gone and so am I.

[NZSilver]

Surrounding herself with people, top heavy, not my cup of tea.

[allfromacell]

The pace at which ATM has grown is outstanding, I don't think a lot of people truly appreciate how fast this company has moved in the last 5 years let alone the past 24 months. I think Geoffrey was a great leader and would have preferred him to stay on-board but the hiring of additional staff is necessary especially in a business looking to continue expanding so rapidly.

The new Chief Technical Officer brings with him 30 years of dairy experience which is surely valuable to ATM. I think it's too early to pass judgement on Jayne and would prefer to let the future results and numbers speak for themselves.

[777]

Sorry allfromacell but my judgement of Jayne was made the day she was appointed and confirmed the day she sold her shares.

[couta1]

The pace at which ATM has grown is outstanding, I don't think a lot of people truly appreciate how fast this company has moved in the last 5 years let alone the past 24 months. I think Geoffrey was a great leader and would have preferred him to stay on-board but the hiring of additional staff is necessary especially in a business looking to continue expanding so rapidly.

The new Chief Technical Officer brings with him 30 years of dairy experience which is surely valuable to ATM. I think it's too early to pass judgement on Jayne and would prefer to let the future results and numbers speak for themselves. And therein lies the problem, I'm not sure how anyone will be able to tell if Jayne has made any significant contribution to the company putting aside the great base Geoff has already laid and the brilliance of the company itself which would still do well with any random Monkey as CEO, excepting the Monkey would probably hang onto its shares.

[Ggcc]

Is it too soon to say that ATM has broken the MA100

[couta1]

Is it too soon to say that ATM has broken the MA100 With the result about 6 wks away anything could happen, good few days but expecting more volatility between now and the result.

[minimoke]

Is it too soon to say that ATM has broken the MA100Yes it is too early. ATM just doing its usual up one moment, down the next trend

[Ggcc]

Yes it is too early. ATM just doing its usual up one moment, down the next trend
But on the way up I retrieved my shirt and pants to become fully dressed

[Ggcc]

With the result about 6 wks away anything could happen, good few days but expecting more volatility between now and the result.

I agree and I think when the figures come out there will be an increase in valuation regardless of what hrdlicka does. I don’t agree with her in what she is doing, but hey that is her and she is not me.

[whatsup]

Who would have picked that we would hit $11.50 today, highest trade since 20 th Sept 2018 !!

[bull....]

looks good for more gains i reckon

[minimoke]

looks good for more gains i reckonDont be loosing sight of SML which will play Catch Up soon.

[Baa_Baa]

looks good for more gains i reckon

That it does, above all the punters MA's (A2M) and nice breakout of the down trend line from the spike high, which will probably be back tested shortly. Tempting overhead gap to be closed as well.


Is it too soon to say that ATM has broken the MA100

That happened Monday 7th. Backtested yesterday, bolted today.


Yes it is too early. ATM just doing its usual up one moment, down the next trend

Ah, no.

[minimoke]

Ah, no.4 ups and 3 downs in the past month

[Baa_Baa]

4 ups and 3 downs in the past month

So you answer a question about the 100MA saying it hadn't broken when it had, then quote the 90MA to confirm your throw-away comment that SP goes up and down (like we're blind to volatility), and fail to acknowledge the current SP broke up through the 100MA on Monday, back tested it Tuesday and bolted forth closing 0.47 above it today. Sure the SP goes up and down, though the question was whether the 100MA had broken, and it had.

I hope this won't deter you from continuing to practice your TA, firstly by starting with a decent chart tool. If it helps, don't waste your time TA'ing ATM, it's illiquid compared to the ASX where A2M gives off strong TA signals, those that can actually be traded. An important TA signal happened today, and it's not an MA.

[Leftfield]

I agree with you Baa Baa, TA looking healthy.

This chart by Hoots on HotCopper sums it up well....

10253

[minimoke]

I agree with you Baa Baa, TA looking healthy.

This chart by Hoots on HotCopper sums it up well....

10253
Draw enough straight lines and it looks like a chart can confirm any bias.

[couta1]

I agree with you Baa Baa, TA looking healthy.

This chart by Hoots on HotCopper sums it up well....

10253 As good as Hoots is no one knows where this stock is going on a daily or weekly basis, the shorts won't be giving up that easy and with the Insto's back on board to play games next week expect more tree shaking before the result.

[Balance]

As good as Hoots is no one knows where this stock is going on a daily or weekly basis, the shorts won't be giving up that easy and with the Insto's back on board to play games next week expect more tree shaking before the result.

Watch the shortcoverings - 1.3m shares covered since Dec 21st when sp fell to six month low of A$9.05 and sp has rallied 20% since!

Shorts still at 49.5m shares.

[Leftfield]

Draw enough straight lines and it looks like a chart can confirm any bias.

Pretty sad dismissive post of TA.

I've previously posted here details of over 22 trades that had gained me over 2000% gains in ATM which now accounts for 60% of my portfolio - Free held. TA guided me throughout.

So by all means dismiss TA..... it's your loss.

[minimoke]

Pretty sad dismissive post of TA.

I've previously posted here details of over 22 trades that had gained me over 2000% gains in ATM which now accounts for 60% of my portfolio - Free held. TA guided me throughout.

So by all means dismiss TA..... it's your loss.A day or so ago TA was all a flutter with excitement with ATM hitting $11.50 having apparently broken the all important MA100. Now its back down to $11.36 - something I didnt see the Chartists predicting.

I stand by my "usual up and down" trend statement (which is stating the bleeding obvious with ATM.) and will add that no tool can accurately predict with precision the movement of ATM. Suffice to say it will go up, which is why I hold.

Disc - not a trader but a long term investor

[winner69]

Hoop who sadly doesn’t post any more on ST says this about ATM — Officially-- BEAR..Technically-- recent unconfirmed reversal to BULL

That’s pretty good eh

[percy]

Hoop who sadly doesn’t post any more on ST says this about ATM — Officially-- BEAR..Technically-- recent unconfirmed reversal to BULL

That’s pretty good eh

Yes a bob each way.!.....lol.

[minimoke]

Hoop who sadly doesn’t post any more on ST says this about ATM — Officially-- BEAR..Technically-- recent unconfirmed reversal to BULL

That’s pretty good ehSeems to be a view at odds with Hoots chart.

A chart should have objective data from which an objective conclusion can be drawn.

As I said earlier - draw a chart and stick some lines on it and draw your own conclusions.

[Baa_Baa]

Pretty sad dismissive post of TA.

I've previously posted here details of over 22 trades that had gained me over 2000% gains in ATM which now accounts for 60% of my portfolio - Free held. TA guided me throughout.

So by all means dismiss TA..... it's your loss.

You've done well using TA, I wouldn't trade without it. On A2M the breakout close above the medium term down trend line from the spike high was encouraging, as was the perfect back test of it yesterday, bounce and closed above again at $10.80. Closing the gap between 10.99 and 11.30 is the next hurdle.

[couta1]

You've done well using TA, I wouldn't trade without it. On A2M the breakout close above the medium term down trend line from the spike high was encouraging, as was the perfect back test of it yesterday, bounce and closed above again at $10.80. Closing the gap between 10.99 and 11.30 is the next hurdle. You can trade well with it or without it, if your immersed in the market every day then your Gutometer is your best TA tool.

[Baa_Baa]

You can trade well with it or without it, if your immersed in the market every day then your Gutometer is your best TA tool.

Sure, whatever works for you. :t_up:

[Leftfield]

IMHO a mix of TA, FA and Gutometer is hard to beat. Get the trifecta and you are away!! :t_up:

Interesting post today on HC quoting scan data from "Australia's largest retail supermarket group" stating A2 IF sales for the last qtr up 61% on pp, and that A2 now has 31% market share.

Add these sales trends to Hoot's 'encouraging' T/A analysis and my gutometer is getting a tab excited!

(However, as Couta and Balance point out, we still have to contend with the shorters in the meantime till the next update comes out.)

[Brain]

You can trade well with it or without it, if your immersed in the market every day then your Gutometer is your best TA tool.

I think you have summed it up well Couta. I think the successful TA guys and girls are probably being influenced by their Gutometer more than they realise. Those gut feelings influence where and how they draw their lines and the decisions they make.

Personally I just rely on my whiskers - mostly they are right enough to counter when they are very very wrong. Maybe it has been too easy in this market over the last 10 years or so and a chimp throwing darts would probably be as good as this cats whiskers. Very hard to say.

[minimoke]

. Maybe it has been too easy in this market over the last 10 years or so and a chimp throwing darts would probably be as good as this cats whiskers. Very hard to say.I did that with the Very Successful patented Minimoke Random Share Generator. Entered it in the Stock Picking contest and got 11th.

[dobby41]

You can trade well with it or without it, if your immersed in the market every day then your Gutometer is your best TA tool.
Yes you can

Sure, whatever works for you. :t_up:

And that's the key - do what works for you.
Listen to people but do what works for you!

[Sideshow Bob]

Nestle and their maternal A2 milk powder.

https://www.nutraingredients-asia.com/Article/2019/01/09/Further-foray-Nestle-plans-more-A2-milk-moves-after-launching-world-s-first-maternal-milk-powder?utm_source=copyright&utm_medium=OnSite&utm_campaign=copyright

[777]

For info

https://www.sharecafe.com.au/2019/01/11/a2m-citi-rates-the-stock-as-neutral/

[carrom74]

For info

https://www.sharecafe.com.au/2019/01/11/a2m-citi-rates-the-stock-as-neutral/

http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/8a065dcb/a2-milk-shares-rated-both-outperform-and-sell-as-views-on-outlook-diverge.html

The same guys recommended to sell and that too in August.I just don’t believe these guys. In fact I bought more until Jayne sold and rest was history.

[couta1]

For info

https://www.sharecafe.com.au/2019/01/11/a2m-citi-rates-the-stock-as-neutral/ No surprises, notorious shorters.

[Balance]

No surprises, notorious shorters.

No churn, no income!

[Ggcc]

Covering their shorts? It seems to be rising nicely today

[see weed]

Covering their shorts? It seems to be rising nicely today
Yes, six months of down bear..April to Oct. and now 3 months of up bull..Oct to Jan. and could carry on until Feb report :). Watching closely.

[allfromacell]

Big volume too, hopefully the buying continues.

[Leftfield]

Yee ha, shorters getting burned at last......... previous posts citing Hoot's encouraging TA, and market share/sales/export data are at last sinking in.

Nice bit of independent research that points to even more benefits of A2 milk. https://hotcopper.com.au/attachments/jarmolowska_2019-pdf.1414956/?filename=Jarmolowska_2019.pdf

[couta1]

Yeah, think I will sit tight and hold on until reporting. They making me good money atm..at the moment. 100k in 8 weeks:t_up:. What do you think...$12 by Feb. Wow 11.65 now, hang on tight everyone. Expect more volatility before the result. PS-Remember a meal in the tummy is better than one going cold on the table.Lol

[see weed]

looks good for more gains i reckon
You are right there:).

[Ggcc]

You are right there:).
Let’s hope so. Because I love earning money for doing nothing 😊

[peat]

Let’s hope so. Because I love earning money for doing nothing 

dont ever say or think that owning equities creates money for nothing

[Ggcc]

dont ever say or think that owning equities creates money for nothing
Hey I understand that, but you don’t know my investment strategy. I’m happy for these gains and don’t mind sharing. I think there are many more gains to come, but DYOR

[see weed]

Expect more volatility before the result. PS-Remember a meal in the tummy is better than one going cold on the table.Lol
You are right there, but if someone is hungry enough, they could reheat that meal and eat it tomorrow or next week if put in the freezer in the mean time:D.ps we might be able to send a couple frozen meals over to OCA:eek2:.

[Ggcc]

You are right there, but if someone is hungry enough, they could reheat that meal and eat it tomorrow or next week if put in the freezer in the mean time:D.ps we might be able to send a couple frozen meals over to OCA:eek2:.
That was one of my investment strategies

[Ggcc]

$11.21 Australian finish, which means $11.85 finish in New Zealand dollars. Looking good for tomorrow, but understand that we could see a drop as that is a big increase

[couta1]

$11.21 Australian finish, which means $11.85 finish in New Zealand dollars. Looking good for tomorrow, but understand that we could see a drop as that is a big increase Big fish buying today, when they stop their feeding frenzy you will get a drop, it's just like a good days fishing when it's all go, next day or week nothing happening except reef fish stripping your bait.

[Ggcc]

Big fish buying today, when they stop their feeding frenzy you will get a drop, it's just like a good days fishing when it's all go, next day or week nothing happening except reef fish stripping your bait.
Great analogy and yes I agree

[minimoke]

$11.21 Australian finish, which means $11.85 finish in New Zealand dollars. Looking good for tomorrow, but understand that we could see a drop as that is a big increaseThe wee SM1 Remora hanging on the side of A2M also finished up on AUD$9.02 or $9.51

[Ggcc]

The wee SM1 Remora hanging on the side of A2M also finished up on AUD$9.02 or $9.51
lucky I hold both ATM and SML

[Baa_Baa]

What a great few days. TA suggested the breakout significance days ago, then confirmed by three backtests (daily chart), each offering buyer opportunity with decreasing risk as each signal locked in. Then BOOM up she goes today with good volume and opportunity to unload a few into strength for a nice few days profit while retaining a few more for the long hold growth portfolio. Plenty of resistance above here so it's not for the Luddites with no ability to read or move with the market, but this is gold for those that do have the skills. Look at the volume and $ traded today on NZX and ASX, the trick is simply dipping your cup into the tide at the right time and drinking from the cup at the right time, it doesn't even have to be perfect timing. The tide will do whatever it wants, just learn how to use the cup.