ATM - A2 Milk Corporation Limited

[see weed]

$11.21 Australian finish, which means $11.85 finish in New Zealand dollars. Looking good for tomorrow, but understand that we could see a drop as that is a big increase
Yes agree. Might see open at $11.79ish, then from there who knows;).

[bull....]

10 - 12 has been the range for a while punuated by false breaks on both sides. time will tell of course if its a real breakout or just more range trading

[Balance]

10 - 12 has been the range for a while punuated by false breaks on both sides. time will tell of course if its a real breakout or just more range trading

50m shares still shorted - will the panic set in to cover as the sp heads back to previous high?

Or will those with courage of conviction use the opportunity to double up on their shorts?

Either way, must be a sobering wake up in 2019 for the shorters who thought they would make serious bucks from the December 2018 market 'crash'?

[bull....]

50m shares still shorted - will the panic set in to cover as the sp heads back to previous high?

Or will those with courage of conviction use the opportunity to double up on their shorts?

Either way, must be a sobering wake up in 2019 for the shorters who thought they would make serious bucks from the December 2018 market 'crash'?

some long/short funds can hold for a long time as its part of there mandate, other will be playing the range so who knows might get an increase in shorts again as we approach the top of the range

[Balance]

some long/short funds can hold for a long time as its part of there mandate, other will be playing the range so who knows might get an increase in shorts again as we approach the top of the range

Those of us who have shorted know that the margin calls are the killer - so will not be a comfortable ride for shorters as ATM sp heads higher.

[Ggcc]

Big orders on the ASX

[minimoke]

Big orders on the ASXAnd nice to see them starting with a NZD$12.00

[Ggcc]

I am guessing we are heading above the 200MA now

[see weed]

There you go $12, that should make a few people happy:t_up:. I didn't think it would get there that fast.

[BlackPeter]

I am guessing we are heading above the 200MA now

Interesting. Wondering whether a hard BREXIT and turmoil in the UK would be good for ATM? Or is the possible ATM upswing uncorrelated to the UK news?

[winner69]

Interesting. Wondering whether a hard BREXIT and turmoil in the UK would be good for ATM? Or is the possible ATM upswing uncorrelated to the UK news?

Uncorrelated I reckon ...Brexit whatever just short term market noise

[Leftfield]

Interesting. Wondering whether a hard BREXIT and turmoil in the UK would be good for ATM? Or is the possible ATM upswing uncorrelated to the UK news?


Those of us who have shorted know that the margin calls are the killer - so will not be a comfortable ride for shorters as ATM sp heads higher.

Improving fundamentals will eventually win out over the shorters IMHO.

There may still be some volatility (we live in very uncertain times,) but it seems to me, the longer term trend is back in action, as reports of ATM's increasing sales/earnings play out.

UK sales might be hurt by Brexit as Britain GDP declines, but ATM is well spread internationally to pick up the slack elsewhere so I pick the upswing relates to other factors i.e. improving fundamentals.

[minimoke]

I just can't contain myself. Will have to go out to twilight bowls tonight and celebrate. Up another 30k today, should be back to where it is meant to be by weeks end at this rate.If this keeps up I might be up for a creamy treat at the end of the week - its been a while between drinks!

[bull....]

a2 found resistance above 12 again. see what happens

[Balance]

Shorters feeling the burn! Ouch!

[see weed]

Shorters feeling the burn! Ouch!

There she goes again. What do they know that we don't?

[see weed]

a2 found resistance above 12 again. see what happens
Yes, maybe 12.20 now.

[Beagle]

If this keeps up I might be up for a creamy treat at the end of the week - its been a while between drinks!

A very long time. Does it go off after more than 6 months out of the fridge ? Probably a rhetorical question for me at this stage as Synlait is sill miles under its high of $13 so there's nothing for me to celebrate at this stage from them or anything else for that matter either....

[minimoke]

There she goes again. What do they know that we don't?
It sharetrader ramping in order to boost their ranking in the Comp.

[Balance]

Shorters feeling the burn! Ouch!

If you have a look at the shorting chart, it shows that shorters have mainly lost money on ATM.

Point of maximum pain is going to be coming up soon - when ATM breaches the $13.00 level.

Fully expect the shorters to panic cover then and push the sp back up to previous high.

[see weed]

Yes, maybe 12.20 now.
I should say 12.30 now:). Beags, I am glad I didn't sell off too much when Herdlicker was up to her hijinks. Am still gaining a bit over 7k every time it goes up 10c:t_up:.

[Ggcc]

If you have a look at the shorting chart, it shows that shorters have mainly lost money on ATM.

Point of maximum pain is going to be coming up soon - when ATM breaches the $13.00 level.

Fully expect the shorters to panic cover then and push the sp back up to previous high.
It is looking wonderful for the longterm holder if it gets to $14+ per share I might look at down sizing a little to other shares which are standing still or going backward. Ie OCA and HGH

[Sideshow Bob]

What would be nice would be an unscheduled positive update, to increase that burn! Mmmmmmmmmmm.

Otherwise, looks like we have to wait patiently until approx. 21/2 for the HY result/update......

[44wishlists]

I started buying when Jayne started selling her shares. I am looking forward when she or her team start selling again!

[bull....]

Yes, maybe 12.20 now.

yes still waiting to see what happens , dont buck the trend as thet say

[Balance]

I should say 12.30 now:). Beags, I am glad I didn't sell off too much when Herdlicker was up to her hijinks. Am still gaining a bit over 7k every time it goes up 10c:t_up:.

For the listening pleasure of the shorters as they contemplate when to cover. :D

https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=disco+inferno

[minimoke]

A very long time. Does it go off after more than 6 months out of the fridge ?.Bwahahaha. You think I might have experience of having a bottle of grog sitting six months in my fridge. Nothing is known to survive beyond a week.

(SML nicely back on the rise! Go on, think positive and celebrate)

[see weed]

For the listening pleasure of the shorters as they contemplate when to cover. :D

https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=disco+inferno
That put an even bigger smile on my face, and got up and did the boogy while it was playing :t_up::D:t_up::D:t_up:.

[Beagle]

Bwahahaha. You think I might have experience of having a bottle of grog sitting six months in my fridge. Nothing is known to survive beyond a week.

(SML nicely back on the rise! Go on, think positive and celebrate)

LOL...adding weight got the better of me and I stopped drinking Canterbury Cream but not other things :)
Might have a wee drink this weekend to celebrate SML cracking $10 again, (almost inevitable if it hasn't happened by Friday)

[Sideshow Bob]

For the listening pleasure of the shorters as they contemplate when to cover. :D

https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=disco+inferno

I prefer:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=It7107ELQvY :p

[minimoke]

I prefer:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=It7107ELQvY :pI prefer that as well. I reckon a few shorters wil be experiencing a bad case of the sh1ts at the moment.

[Ggcc]

Great finish on the ASX with a nice big order still standing........ until tomorrow

[whatsup]

Great finish on the ASX with a nice big order still standing........ until tomorrow

YEH best close for 7 & 1/2 months !

[carrom74]

Tue 15th Jan, 2019 619,397 733,297,297 0.08% 5,595,616 11.07%

From short man...

Heavy short covering on Tuesday or should I say “panic buying” !

[allfromacell]

Tue 15th Jan, 2019 619,397 733,297,297 0.08% 5,595,616 11.07%

From short man...

Heavy short covering on Tuesday or should I say “panic buying” !

Shortman's shorting activity includes shorts being covered and new shorts being initiated. 11% of the volume on Tuesday is considered low for this stock, so I suspect there wasn't much covering done on Tuesday. Even if all that short activity was covering it would only account for 620K shares.

Then take into account yesterdays 3.5M shares traded of which 31% was short activity. For arguments sake even if every single one of those trades were covers, that would account for around 1.1M shares still leaving a gigantic 45M+ open shorts

I've never really understood why this stock was has been so heavily shorted, the stock was outstanding value at less than $10NZD but yet the shorting has been relentless. ATM is currently 60% of my portfolio so I would like to look at taking some profit but will wait and see how much more legs this has. The squeeze could propel this much higher, irrational volatility works both ways...

[Ggcc]

When would all these 45 million+ shorts have to be paid back by?

[couta1]

When would all these 45 million+ shorts have to be paid back by? At various time frames.PS-Not sure it will only be the shorters getting a wee burn for those buying high once this has a pull back and it always does.

[minimoke]

At various time frames.PS-Not sure it will only be the shorters getting a wee burn for those buying high once this has a pull back and it always does.Thats the nature of this volatile stock. Hope the lows will be higher and the trend remains upwards.

[Sideshow Bob]

Have half-pie been expecting a pull-back or at least a pause for breath after the stellar run of the last week or so. But up to $12.60 on the NZX.

Main event starting at 12pm should be interesting once again......

[Ggcc]

The large ASX order still stands for now. I think we shall see a large jump in sp if that order remains and then a pull back this afternoon. The rises have been big for the last three to four days and it needs a break. Of course I don’t mind if it keeps going up.

[couta1]

Entering into the buyers burn zone now.Lol

[Ggcc]

just noticed a meaty sell order at $12 on ASX. Let's see if it goes above that.........

[777]

just noticed a meaty sell order at $12 on ASX. Let's see if it goes above that.........

83 sellers for 128000 shares. Simply a lot of people setting their order at a round number

[allfromacell]

Decided to sell a few here, guessing the top is just as hard as guessing the bottom but figure it's wise to sell down a bit.

[Ggcc]

83 sellers for 128000 shares. Simply a lot of people setting their order at a round number
Enough to spook the sp back down for now. I do think a pullback was necessary in the short term. Once it passes the $12 and we have a positive 6 month report, we should see new recommendations for a higher sp from analysts

[Lewylewylewy]

Until reporting season, it's all a guess at this stage

[Beagle]

The only certain thing is Herdlicker and co will give shareholders another opportunity to buy lots of her free shares.

[see weed]

Decided to sell a few here, guessing the top is just as hard as guessing the bottom but figure it's wise to sell down a bit.
I got a small sell order that's been standing for three weeks. It started at 10.70 and has been amended 6 times now at 13.15. There should be some more up days between now and report day. Good chance for people who missed out to get in on these down days, must be about 5 weeks to report.

[couta1]

I got a small sell order that's been standing for three weeks. It started at 10.70 and has been amended 6 times now at 13.15. There should be some more up days between now and report day. Good chance for people who missed out to get in on these down days, must be about 5 weeks to report. Lol this isn't a down day see weed, wait till it goes below $12 again then were talking Turkey.

[see weed]

Expect more volatility before the result. PS-Remember a meal in the tummy is better than one going cold on the table.Lol
No worries, have put the one on the table into the freezer for a few weeks or until the results;).

[777]

Good solid close. Now for Aussie to follow suit.

[see weed]

Lol this isn't a down day see weed, wait till it goes below $12 again then were talking Turkey.
Good close tonight and still have 22 little turkey meals in the freezer. Might have to open a Cant.Cream:t_up:.

[see weed]

A2 always full of surprises whether up or down.40c to 80c, $1 to $2, $2 to $7, then last year, a day before report $9.50 to $14 in less than 4 weeks....... Two weeks ago we are talking $11, last week talking $12. Still have a good 4 weeks till reporting. 12+4=16. Maybe $16 by then;).

[Leftfield]

A2 always full of surprises whether up or down.40c to 80c, $1 to $2, $2 to $7, then last year, a day before report $9.50 to $14 in less than 4 weeks....... Two weeks ago we are talking $11, last week talking $12. Still have a good 4 weeks till reporting. 12+4=16. Maybe $16 by then;).

Crikey see weed, you are getting me a tab excited!

[peat]

Watching the Australian open (Roger vs Stefanos) and commentators said they saw Jayne Hrdlicka sitting with Aussie PM - fwiw

[hardt]

Watching the Australian open (Roger vs Stefanos) and commentators said they saw Jayne Hrdlicka sitting with Aussie PM - fwiw

She is the president of tennis Australia...

[QOH]

She is the president of tennis Australia...
Could be a late night for her, hope she gets to work on time tomorrow.

[Jay]

I think her main focus for the next week will be entertaining/networking with people/players at the tennis, though do not think there are many tennis players with infants, that she could convince them to change to A2 infant milk formula "...got any fiends of family with young ones needing formula.. you should try... I'll organise some with your people..." :)

[winner69]

I think her main focus for the next week will be entertaining/networking with people/players at the tennis, though do not think there are many tennis players with infants, that she could convince them to change to A2 infant milk formula "...got any fiends of family with young ones needing formula.. you should try... I'll organise some with your people..." :)

Serena would be a good start

Look how much coverage Qai Qai got just because it’s Olympia’s toy.

[Lewylewylewy]

Does anyone know when Herdlicker will be dropping the SP again? Im thinking about increasing my (tiny) holding.

[777]

China

It was reported yesterday there were 15.23 million live births in 2018, a drop of two million from the year before.

Thats a lot of infant formula required.

[allfromacell]

China

It was reported yesterday there were 15.23 million live births in 2018, a drop of two million from the year before.

Thats a lot of infant formula required.

A lot less than last year though. Lucky A2 is growing it's market share so quickly eh.

[BlackPeter]

China

It was reported yesterday there were 15.23 million live births in 2018, a drop of two million from the year before.

Thats a lot of infant formula required.

So - how is a 12% drop in the birthrate good news for A2? Why would you think that the percentage of parents using A2 formula in economically challenging times would be increasing? Average Chinese per head disposable income in China is less than NZ$5000 per year (roughly 22.000 yuan) - makes you wonder how many A2 tins per month at roughly NZ$50 per pop they can afford. Don't forget - feeding babies with milk formula from the other side of the world is a luxury, not a necessity.

edit: I used originally in this post the Chinese per head GDP (roughly US$1000 per head per month). Relevant in this context is however not he GDP but the disposable household income - which is obviously much lower.

Ref: https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2018/january/income-living-standards-china

[allfromacell]

So - how is a 12% drop in the birthrate good news for A2? Why would you think that the percentage of parents using A2 formula in economically challenging times would be increasing? Average Chinese per head income is something like US$1000 per month - makes you wonder how many A2 tins per month at roughly US$35 per pop they can afford. Don't forget - feeding babies with milk formula from the other side of the world is a luxury, not a necessity.


I would say it's somewhere in between luxury and necessity. For a lot of Chinese mothers ensuring their babies have the safe and high quality infant formula is something they would prioritise.

[mondograss]

I found this interesting, particularly the bit about only a quarter of Chinese mothers breast feeding. Must be a cultural thing:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/china-lethal-milk-scandal-reverberates-160000130.html

[Balance]

So - how is a 12% drop in the birthrate good news for A2? Why would you think that the percentage of parents using A2 formula in economically challenging times would be increasing? Average Chinese per head income is something like US$1000 per month - makes you wonder how many A2 tins per month at roughly US$35 per pop they can afford. Don't forget - feeding babies with milk formula from the other side of the world is a luxury, not a necessity.

Besides birth rates and number of births, there are two other key factors driving premium A2M infant formula consumption in China besides birth rates :

1. Rise in real disposal incomes - the middle classes are getting wealthier and spending more on quality products and services;

2. The perceived benefits of A2 milk for their one child (supported by 6 adults).

I suspect you will find that the Chinese do not perceive feeding their little emperors and little empresses with the best infant formula as a luxury - just as they do not see spending a huge chunk of their incomes on education.

Gotto take off the Western blinkers when assessing China.

[777]

So - how is a 12% drop in the birthrate good news for A2? Why would you think that the percentage of parents using A2 formula in economically challenging times would be increasing? Average Chinese per head disposable income in China is less than NZ$5000 per year (roughly 22.000 yuan) - makes you wonder how many A2 tins per month at roughly NZ$50 per pop they can afford. Don't forget - feeding babies with milk formula from the other side of the world is a luxury, not a necessity.

edit: I used originally in this post the Chinese per head GDP (roughly US$1000 per head per month). Relevant in this context is however not he GDP but the disposable household income - which is obviously much lower.

Ref: https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2018/january/income-living-standards-china

15.3 million is still a hell of a lot of available market.

[BlackPeter]

15.3 million is still a hell of a lot of available market.

Think big! There must be at any one time roughly 200 million babys and toddlers on this planet, why only focus on the diminishing number of Chinese babys :t_up:?

Ignoring for a moment price pressure and competition: only the sky is the limit!

[Baa_Baa]

Think big! There must be at any one time roughly 200 million babys and toddlers on this planet, why only focus on the diminishing number of Chinese babys :t_up:?

Ignoring for a moment price pressure and competition: only the sky is the limit!

Are you suggesting their "only focus" is on the China market? Surely you know that is not the case.

[bull....]

time to be a bear again

[777]

Think big! There must be at any one time roughly 200 million babys and toddlers on this planet, why only focus on the diminishing number of Chinese babys :t_up:?

Ignoring for a moment price pressure and competition: only the sky is the limit!

It was just a comment, not a focus but sorry if I have upset you.

[BlackPeter]

Are you suggesting their "only focus" is on the China market? Surely you know that is not the case.

Sigh - irony is difficult to convey ...

I am suggesting that it feels that some punters here might have got a bit carried away ...

While the A2 ship has been for some time on growth course and still has some momentum left despite recently replacing a capable and committed captain with a in my view less capable and clearly less committed captain, there will be limits to its future market growth. The shrinking of its biggest market (China) clearly won't help. They would need to increase their market share by 12% to only keep selling the same number of tins they sold last year. The economic woes of the Chinese market (Trumps war) clearly won't help either. And despite all the hype - at the end they only sell a commodity which can't be protected. Give it a handful more years and every competitor will offer the same product.

Even the New Zealand brand is not that flash if you consider that our own proudly NZ owned Fonterra was quite involved in the largest Chinese milk safety scandal being the big cornerstone shareholder of the very company killing Chinese babies with blending milk formula with melanine. Not clean and green.

While I see no reason for A2 in the near term to stop growing and stop making money, I think they well might have reached peak growth by now. Is a forward PE of 31 in this situation really cheap? I don't know.

[Balance]

They would need to increase their market share by 12% to only keep selling the same number of tins they sold last year. The economic woes of the Chinese market (Trumps war) clearly won't help either. And despite all the hype - at the end they only sell a commodity which can't be protected. Give it a handful more years and every competitor will offer the same product.

Even the New Zealand brand is not that flash if you consider that our own proudly NZ owned Fonterra was quite involved in the largest Chinese milk safety scandal being the big cornerstone shareholder of the very company killing Chinese babies with blending milk formula with melanine. Not clean and green.

While I see no reason for A2 in the near term to stop growing and stop making money, I think they well might have reached peak growth by now. Is a forward PE of 31 in this situation really cheap? I don't know.

Nonsense.

Utter and complete illogical nonsense.

[BlackPeter]

Nonsense.

Utter and complete illogical nonsense.

You mean you disagree?

Mind to enlarge on which of my statements are you referring to and why you disagree with them?

[Lego_Man]

You mean you disagree?

Mind to enlarge on which of my statements are you referring to and why you disagree with them?

I agree with you, effectively you're paying upfront for all the growth that might or might not occur. It would be a good buy if there was some reasonable discount factoring in the innate uncertainty of the future.

Not quite as nutty as Netflix being valued on one day owning X% of the market and being able to make a profit then. But both classic late cycle behaviour.

A2 milk will be a great buy at around 5-7 bucks in the coming bear market.

[see weed]

time to be a bear again
It's only a little bear. Baby bears drink a2 milk:). How much did they say a2 had in the bank last year..300mil? They might pay a little div to a little Kiwi. I like a little kiwi....div.

[BlackPeter]

It's only a little bear. Baby bears drink a2 milk:). How much did they say a2 had in the bank last year..300mil? They might pay a little div to a little Kiwi. I like a little kiwi....div.

Lets face it - if they start paying a dividend, than this means that they think their shareholders can get a better return for their money elsewhere instead of reinvesting it into ATM. Nothing wrong with that (HLG or KPG or TRA are e.g. outstanding dividend plays), but this would mean that the board expects the endof the growth phase. If this is true, than the PE ratio looks truely expensive.

Ah yes - and 300 mil cash - just remind me, how much is this per share?

[allfromacell]

Sigh - irony is difficult to convey ...

I am suggesting that it feels that some punters here might have got a bit carried away ...

While the A2 ship has been for some time on growth course and still has some momentum left despite recently replacing a capable and committed captain with a in my view less capable and clearly less committed captain, there will be limits to its future market growth. The shrinking of its biggest market (China) clearly won't help. They would need to increase their market share by 12% to only keep selling the same number of tins they sold last year. The economic woes of the Chinese market (Trumps war) clearly won't help either. And despite all the hype - at the end they only sell a commodity which can't be protected. Give it a handful more years and every competitor will offer the same product.

Even the New Zealand brand is not that flash if you consider that our own proudly NZ owned Fonterra was quite involved in the largest Chinese milk safety scandal being the big cornerstone shareholder of the very company killing Chinese babies with blending milk formula with melanine. Not clean and green.

While I see no reason for A2 in the near term to stop growing and stop making money, I think they well might have reached peak growth by now. Is a forward PE of 31 in this situation really cheap? I don't know.


https://au.finance.yahoo.com/news/china-lethal-milk-scandal-reverberates-160000130.html

This Euromonitor crowd reckons the infant-formula market will expand another 21% to $32B in 2023, that’s pretty impressive even with less babies being born than before. The economy is still growing quickly, in the last 12 months China just increased it’s GDP by the economic size of Australia,the middle class is expanding and more mothers will be able to afford to buy safer food for their little ones.

Sure, we may have reached peak growth in percentage terms that’s just the law of large numbers.. There is no sign that growth will slow down much. In the last report A2 reported that they grew their Chinese market share by 10% in just the last quarter!

With regards to the competition, I don’t think the average mother cares much for the science behind the brand. The A2 marketing team seems to be making great progress and eating all the larger corporations lunch, I have a good feeling this will continue for at least the next 3 years. Plus there is the lottery ticket in the US which could pay off massively, my main focus has always been on IF in China but the US progress does seem promising so far.

Disclosure: I hold 45% of my portfolio in ATM after recently selling down some at $12.55 to diversify a little. I plan to sell 20% more of my holding at $15NZD.

[Balance]

You mean you disagree?

Mind to enlarge on which of my statements are you referring to and why you disagree with them?

You wrote : "Even the New Zealand brand is not that flash if you consider that our own proudly NZ owned Fonterra was quite involved in the largest Chinese milk safety scandal being the big cornerstone shareholder of the very company killing Chinese babies with blending milk formula with melanine. Not clean and green."

The melamine scandal is actually the making of NZ's reputation for unquestionable food integrity and quality reputation in China - talk to any exporter and they will tell you that. Why? Because NZ was prepared to blow the whistle on the scandal and risked losing hundreds of millions of dollars in investments, and potential flow on sales of NZ produce - while the China government and authorities tried to cover up the poisoning and deaths.

You wrote : "They would need to increase their market share by 12% to only keep selling the same number of tins they sold last year."

China's births dropped 3.5% in 2017 but ATM sales charged ahead and more than doubled in 2017 and 2018. There is no correlation between China's births and A2M sales. I have already referred to the changing dynamics of the China market as the incomes of the middle classes rise.

You wrote : "at the end they only sell a commodity which can't be protected. Give it a handful more years and every competitor will offer the same product."

You could say the same about soft drinks, fruits, beers and airlines - yet there are companies which shine well above the others in those products and services - why?

[BlackPeter]

You wrote : "They would need to increase their market share by 12% to only keep selling the same number of tins they sold last year."

China's births dropped 3.5% in 2017 but ATM sales charged ahead and more than doubled in 2017 and 2018. There is no correlation between China's births and A2M sales. I have already referred to the changing dyanmics of the China market as the incomes of the middle classes rise.


I used the numbers supplied by 777m which imply a 12% drop in 2018. didn't check his source, but if this is correct than the birthrates seem to drop quite fast (you said only 3.5% in 2017). Frightening if you need babys to run your business.

And yes, we all know that A2 managed to grow their Chinese sales in 2017 as well as in 2018 despite the reductions in the birth rates. They just increased their market share faster than the birthrate dropped. However - this is not a sustainable strategy.



You wrote : "at the end they only sell a commodity which can't be protected. Give it a handful more years and every competitor will offer the same product."

You could say the same about soft drinks, fruits, beers and airlines - yet there are companies which shine well above the others in those products and services - why?


Sure - Coca Cola did pretty well. Whether it is possible to repeat this success with a product without a secret recipee is a different question. I hear you, but I notice that you are comparing coke with milk ... (worse than apples with oranges?)



The melamine scandal is actually the making of NZ's fantastic food integrity and quality reputation in China - talk to any exporter and they will tell you that. Why? Because NZ was prepared to blow the whistle on the scandal and risked losing hundreds of millions of dollars in investments, and potential flow on sales of NZ produce - while the China government and authorities tried to cover up.

Maybe - but don't think that this scandal brushed up very positively on Fonterra. If your argument is right, than it should be Fonterra making the big dollars in China ...

[minimoke]

I used the numbers supplied by 777m which imply a 12% drop in 2018. didn't check his source, but if this is correct than the birthrates seem to drop quite fast (you said only 3.5% in 2017). Frightening if you need babys to run your business.

.
There is still the relatively untapped Pregnant Mother Market. Research from china in 2017 showed the higher the birth weight the better the math and word skills in 10 - 22 year olds. What better way oor helping higher birth weight is a healthy chinese Mum digesting premium AT Mothers Formula. And if the child isnt up to target weight a diet of healthy brain stimulating A2 will be just what the wealthy parents ordered.

The flip side of these numbers is the aging population - Maybe we need to see the development of an RYM or OCA model in china. Or you keep your workforce healthier by providing better nutrition. Or you incentivise parents to breed more.

Loads more opportunities ahead!

[hardt]

I used the numbers supplied by 777m which imply a 12% drop in 2018. didn't check his source, but if this is correct than the birthrates seem to drop quite fast (you said only 3.5% in 2017). Frightening if you need babys to run your business.

And yes, we all know that A2 managed to grow their Chinese sales in 2017 as well as in 2018 despite the reductions in the birth rates. They just increased their market share faster than the birthrate dropped. However - this is not a sustainable strategy.



Sure - Coca Cola did pretty well. Whether it is possible to repeat this success with a product without a secret recipee is a different question. I hear you, but I notice that you are comparing coke with milk ... (worse than apples with oranges?)



Maybe - but don't think that this scandal brushed up very positively on Fonterra. If your argument is right, than it should be Fonterra making the big dollars in China ...

Your views are very much expected of a top down view from an armchair in New Zealand.

If milk + IF are just commodities, so is honey, wine and meat all of which Chinese consumers pay a premium for ANZ sourced "commodities" as this country has a magic intangible value add to everything it produces.

[Sideshow Bob]

We also all know that can't be a one-trick pony and rely on the Chinese IF market - and the regulatory uncertainties that come with this. Sure China IF remains hugely important, and one of the main reasons where A2 has got to where it is. But remains plenty of potential elsewhere and in other products.

You either buy the growth story and buy/hold, or you don't and sell.

[BlackPeter]

Your views are very much expected of a top down view from an armchair in New Zealand.

If milk + IF are just commodities, so is honey, wine and meat all of which Chinese consumers pay a premium for ANZ sourced "commodities" as this country has a magic intangible value add to everything it produces.

I notice you sent all these valuable information from "inside a bubble" ;). Is this the A2 milk fan bubble?

Look - I don't know how the future will pan out, and so don't you. Just saying that too much euphoria seldom goes the right way. Related to the arm chair in NZ ... yes, I have that as well, but I might have more connections to Asia than many others here.

Anyway - all the best to investors - while I personally think that the share is currently fairly priced at best, nobody can predict where hype will drive any share price - well, certainly not me. Take it just as a different view ... sometimes useful in investing to see other opinions as well, but if it is not useful for you - feel free to only read your own posts :p;

[Balance]

I used the numbers supplied by 777m which imply a 12% drop in 2018. didn't check his source, but if this is correct than the birthrates seem to drop quite fast (you said only 3.5% in 2017). Frightening if you need babys to run your business.

And yes, we all know that A2 managed to grow their Chinese sales in 2017 as well as in 2018 despite the reductions in the birth rates. They just increased their market share faster than the birthrate dropped. However - this is not a sustainable strategy.



Sure - Coca Cola did pretty well. Whether it is possible to repeat this success with a product without a secret recipee is a different question. I hear you, but I notice that you are comparing coke with milk ... (worse than apples with oranges?)



Maybe - but don't think that this scandal brushed up very positively on Fonterra. If your argument is right, than it should be Fonterra making the big dollars in China ...

What is so frightening about needing babies and human beings to run a successful business? Growing market share is not a sustainable strategy - question of time horizon and how much market share, surely!

Coca Cola has a secret recipe? In a blind test, the executives of Coca Cola & Pepsi Cola could not successfully pick 5 out of 5 of their 'unique' formulation! A2M is already perceived as a cut above local products in China and has an excellent positioning in the Australasian markets. Wonder why that is. Heck, it's a commodity, right!

Fonterra is a disaster - confirmed fact. How could a company not learn from its Sanlu disaster ($200m write-off) and lost $504m in Beingmate in China? And watch for the write-offs in South America to come. Why is it that other NZ dairy companies are milking it in China, but not Fonterra?

[Baa_Baa]

ATM on NZX does seem a bit more tentative or risk averse, its chart is lagging A2M on ASX which has an air of confidence and the TA is working well. Might just be the massive difference in liquidity, A2M is much easier to analyse than ATM.

[Balance]

ATM on NZX does seem a bit more tentative or risk averse, its chart is lagging A2M on ASX which has an air of confidence and the TA is working well. Might just be the massive difference in liquidity, A2M is much easier to analyse than ATM.

ATM on NZX is but a sad reflection of what actually happens in the real market for A2M on ASX.

Notice that A2M trading volumes are always 3 or 4 times that of ATM?

Plus, most of ATM shares traded are actually shunted to ASX.

[Snow Leopard]

Couple of posters looking at the world through their Kiwi inferiority goggles :mad ;:.

Need to leave your emotions behind when you are doing your TA as much as you do with your FA.

[hardt]

I notice you sent all these valuable information from "inside a bubble" ;). Is this the A2 milk fan bubble?

Look - I don't know how the future will pan out, and so don't you. Just saying that too much euphoria seldom goes the right way. Related to the arm chair in NZ ... yes, I have that as well, but I might have more connections to Asia than many others here.

Anyway - all the best to investors - while I personally think that the share is currently fairly priced at best, nobody can predict where hype will drive any share price - well, certainly not me. Take it just as a different view ... sometimes useful in investing to see other opinions as well, but if it is not useful for you - feel free to only read your own posts :p;

I am well aware valuations are a tought elastic band that could snap under the simplest of pressures..

I was led to A2 and subsequently QEX via anecdotal evidence of my partners family and their behaviours as Chinese consumers.

No one knows what is coming, A2 in 10 years may be far less appealing, but currently growth is strong and momentum continues into the next 3-5 years

[winner69]

Take it just as a different view ... sometimes useful in investing to see other opinions as well, but if it is not useful for you - feel free to only read your own posts :p;

Useful to see other opinions .............hmmm

[Balance]

Couple of posters looking at the world through their Kiwi inferiority goggles :mad ;:.

Need to leave your emotions behind when you are doing your TA as much as you do with your FA.

Kiwi inferiority on NZX vs ASX is a fact, not an opinion!

Kiwi stocks decamp to ASX - not the other way round.

NZ companies like Air NZ, Fletchers, Warehouse, Tower, Telecom, Pumpkin Patch etc expand into Australia by acquisitions and get their backsides kick back into NZ, nursing multi-billion dollar losses!

Soon ATM will go the same way as Xero to ASX only listing, and NZX will still be navel gazing in puzzlement, seeking for that 'multiple options for growth' as articulated by Harmos & Weldon (2012)!

[bull....]

exit seems to be panning out at the moment waiting to see if the range stays in tact

[minimoke]

exit seems to be panning out at the moment waiting to see if the range stays in tactAll my shares (except TRA) have red down arrows next to them today and ATM is holding up better than the rest.

[smiley]

If and when it does go to ASX what happens to the shares people hold on NZX are they transferred or do they just get payed out?

[mondograss]

If and when it does go to ASX what happens to the shares people hold on NZX are they transferred or do they just get payed out?

They just get transferred much like XRO.

[Ggcc]

They just get transferred much like XRO.
And the share generally rises faster than if on nzx/asx

[Leftfield]

And the share generally rises faster than if on nzx/asx

XRO SP on the ASX currently trading in the $A42/43 range.....Which is where it was in NZ back in 2014.

Sure, while XRO briefly nudged $A52 on the ASX, it's shift to the ASX has hardly been a raving vindication of the move.

Lastly any move by ATM to list only the ASX is pure speculation. Is there any hard evidence to support this?

[winner69]

XRO SP on the ASX currently trading in the $A42/43 range.....Which is where it was in NZ back in 2014.

Sure, while XRO briefly nudged $A52 on the ASX, it's shift to the ASX has hardly been a raving vindication of the move.

ASX listing probably helped Xero heaps in raising that US$300m not that long ago

[couta1]

XRO SP on the ASX currently trading in the $A42/43 range.....Which is where it was in NZ back in 2014.

Sure, while XRO briefly nudged $A52 on the ASX, it's shift to the ASX has hardly been a raving vindication of the move.

Lastly any move by ATM to list only the ASX is pure speculation. Is there any hard evidence to support this? Unfortunately I think the move is inevitable due to the size of the ASX and the increasing Aussie shareholder base, the NZX is a dying market.

[Balance]

XRO SP on the ASX currently trading in the $A42/43 range.....Which is where it was in NZ back in 2014.

Sure, while XRO briefly nudged $A52 on the ASX, it's shift to the ASX has hardly been a raving vindication of the move.

Lastly any move by ATM to list only the ASX is pure speculation. Is there any hard evidence to support this?

Xero moved to ASX on 5 Feb 2018. Sp then was A$31. Now it is A$42.49 = 37% increase.

Resounding raving vindication vs if on NZX, probably down 35%.

[Leftfield]

Resounding raving vindication vs if on NZX, probably down 35%.

Pure speculation Balance, but I get the point that you all seem to think NZX sucks.

(However, whether Jayne and/or the ATM Board shares your views remains to be seen.... )

[couta1]

If Cullen gets his nutty way and a CGT comes in at ones marginal tax rate(Out of step with every other country where it is at a lesser rate) the NZX is screwed, watch people leave the market and head for property as well as putting off any potential newcomers, not to mention an exodus of overseas funds from our market.Lol

[Ggcc]

If Cullen gets his nutty way and a CGT comes in at ones marginal tax rate(Out of step with every other country where it is at a lesser rate) the NZX is screwed, watch people leave the market and head for property as well as putting off any potential newcomers, not to mention an exodus of overseas funds from our market.Lol
People already should pay capital gains tax when selling more than $50,000 worth of assets on ASX. If A2 does make it into the ASX plenty of people will have to pay capital gains tax

[couta1]

People already should pay capital gains tax when selling more than $50,000 worth of assets on ASX. If A2 does make it into the ASX plenty of people will have to pay capital gains tax Imagine having to pay it at a 33% rate though that's wild west,what has Cullen been smoking?

[777]

People already should pay capital gains tax when selling more than $50,000 worth of assets on ASX. If A2 does make it into the ASX plenty of people will have to pay capital gains tax

Should because you think that morally right or should because Australian residents do. Or are you confusing the FDR regime applicable to NZ residents. FDR is not a capital gains tax.

[Ggcc]

Should because you think that morally right or should because Australian residents do. Or are you confusing the FDR regime applicable to NZ residents. FDR is not a capital gains tax.
My accountant told me any investments I had in Australia over $50,000 were taxable as in CGT. I did not have that amount invested in Australia so I did not qualify for that tax.

[777]

My accountant told me any investments I had in Australia over $50,000 were taxable as in CGT. I did not have that amount invested in Australia so I did not qualify for that tax.

He is referring to FDR then. If your under 50,000 then you pay tax on dividends or distributions received. If over 50,000 then you pay tax on 5% of your opening balance at the beginning of each tax year. This is the maximum. If however your investments do not increase in value by 5%, including dividends and distributions then you only pay tax on what it does increase by.

There are a few other rules but that is the gist of it. Nothing to be frightened of.

Definitely not a CGT.

[BlackPeter]

People already should pay capital gains tax when selling more than $50,000 worth of assets on ASX. If A2 does make it into the ASX plenty of people will have to pay capital gains tax

This is not a tax thread ... but this statement is plain wrong. Most ASX shares are by IRD treated like NZX shares - you only pay for capital gains if you are trading, not if you are investing ... and the $50k you are talking about would be the de-minimus limit for holding NOT exempted foreign funds (including some not exempted shares on the ASX) - no matter whether you hold them or sell them.

If you want to know more - there is plenty of stuff on the IRD webpages ... and the rules are tweaked regularly, i.e. if you hold or used to hold (not sell) more than $50k in foreign funds, you better check every year:

https://www.ird.govt.nz/toii/fif/fif-index.html

Ah yes, and if it is A2 shares you are worried about, no matter whether they are NZX or ASX traded - they are FIF exempt. No 50k limit whatsoever. Obviously - you need to declare your dividends (if & when they pay some) and you need to pay taxes if you are trading.

[Lego_Man]

This is not a tax thread ... but this statement is plain wrong. Most ASX shares are by IRD treated like NZX shares - you only pay for capital gains if you are trading, not if you are investing ... and the $50k you are talking about would be the de-minimus limit for holding NOT exempted foreign funds (including some not exempted shares on the ASX) - no matter whether you hold them or sell them.

If you want to know more - there is plenty of stuff on the IRD webpages ... and the rules are tweaked regularly, i.e. if you hold or used to hold (not sell) more than $50k in foreign funds, you better check every year:

https://www.ird.govt.nz/toii/fif/fif-index.html

Ah yes, and if it is A2 shares you are worried about, no matter whether they are NZX or ASX traded - they are FIF exempt. No 50k limit whatsoever. Obviously - you need to declare your dividends (if & when they pay some) and you need to pay taxes if you are trading.


Looking forward though, Cullen has intimated that local shares will be taxed under a deemed return method as well. So we will basically have a version of the FDR for NZX and all ASX shares.

[dobby41]

My accountant told me any investments I had in Australia over $50,000 were taxable as in CGT. I did not have that amount invested in Australia so I did not qualify for that tax.

Either get a better accountant or listen to the one you have better.
Also FIF isn't for shares OVER $50k - if you have $50k or more in investments covered by FIF you have to follow FIF for the lot - not just the bit over $50k.

[Lego_Man]

He is referring to FDR then. If your under 50,000 then you pay tax on dividends or distributions received. If over 50,000 then you pay tax on 5% of your opening balance at the beginning of each tax year. This is the maximum. If however your investments do not increase in value by 5%, including dividends and distributions then you only pay tax on what it does increase by.

There are a few other rules but that is the gist of it. Nothing to be frightened of.

Definitely not a CGT.

That's only partly true, yes you can elect to use the Comparative Value method. However PIE funds can only use the FDR methodology for foreign shares.

[BlackPeter]

Looking forward though, Cullen has intimated that local shares will be taxed under a deemed return method as well. So we will basically have a version of the FDR for NZX and all ASX shares.

Well, this is only if the New Zealand voters give this incompetent bunch another chance to mess things up. Given that I expect Winston to go (no government he was invovled in ever had more than one turn) and New Zealanders are able to learn, I hope this is not that likely.

[777]

That's only partly true, yes you can elect to use the Comparative Value method. However PIE funds can only use the FDR methodology for foreign shares.

Individual tax payers are not PIE funds.

[Balance]

Looking forward though, Cullen has intimated that local shares will be taxed under a deemed return method as well. So we will basically have a version of the FDR for NZX and all ASX shares.

NZ taxation regime on shares is a muddle and does need to be sorted out. The PIE & FIF regimes were brought in as a package to address the inequality between institutions and individuals - until the regimes were brought in, institutions paid tax on all share gains while individuals went through a process to determine who is a trader etc etc etc. Most (>95%) did not pay tax.

How many Xero shareholders know that XRO is subject to FIF regime?

Does not mean that when ATM moves across to ASX that it will be subjected to FIF of course but it may!

[Jay]

Can we get back to ATM????? - As mentioned this is not the tax thread
Seems to be stalling around the mid $12s'

Anybody know the approximate date for their next report, keeps being mentioned next month but anything a little more concrete?

[bull....]

one of the recommendations was to make pie funds cgt exempt but individuals would pay tax ( be big mistake) , will you even be holding atm shares personally then? at such a tax disadvantage

[Balance]

Can we get back to ATM????? - As mentioned this is not the tax thread
Seems to be stalling around the mid $12s'

Anybody know the approximate date for their next report, keeps being mentioned next month but anything a little more concrete?

ATM always announce 3rd week of Feb. Only the company can announce the actual date.

Next move - back down to $10.00 after short covers completed.

[BlackPeter]

Can we get back to ATM????? - As mentioned this is not the tax thread
Seems to be stalling around the mid $12s'

Anybody know the approximate date for their next report, keeps being mentioned next month but anything a little more concrete?



If you look into the TA - it feels like the SP doesn't manage to overcome resistance and a double top is shaping up: RSI around 70 and flatlining, volume and monentum dropping. I'd say the next move is much more likely downwards than upwards unless Jayne buys a big bunch of shares ... and hey - how likely would that be?

10276

[couta1]

If you look into the TA - it feels like the SP doesn't manage to overcome resistance and a double top is shaping up: RSI around 70 and flatlining, volume and monentum dropping. I'd say the next move is much more likely downwards than upwards unless Jayne buys a big bunch of shares ... and hey - how likely would that be?

10276 Bit of a drop I'd say followed by a strong rally a week or so before the result, after that toss a coin.

[Lewylewylewy]

Does anyone know when herdlicker is due to get more shares? Im looking for an in.

Note to the wise: dont search urban dictionary to learn about atm stock or you might think the milk comes from donkeys.

[minimoke]

Popped into rebel sport today. And there on the TV was our dear leader. Making a speech. At the tennis.

Every hour doing tennis stuff is an hour not doing ATM CEO stuff. Or should that be ATM director stuff.

[kizame]

And now where your last arrow points,looks like a bull flag to me. I think charts are too messy to be a double top,as it's not really a top if you look to the left.

[Lewylewylewy]

It goes up, it goes down. Really people are just waiting on the next update announcement.

[allfromacell]

Popped into rebel sport today. And there on the TV was our dear leader. Making a speech. At the tennis.

Every hour doing tennis stuff is an hour not doing ATM CEO stuff. Or should that be ATM director stuff.

It's the busiest week for Tennis Australia of the year. Surely some lack can be cut.

It was interesting what she said at the AGM about working in multiple roles being a net positive for the primary role. Not sure I buy it.

[couta1]

It's the busiest week for Tennis Australia of the year. Surely some lack can be cut.

It was interesting what she said at the AGM about working in multiple roles being a net positive for the primary role. Not sure I buy it. Multiple roles and multiple milkings. Lol

[Lewylewylewy]

They'll turn up to a game one day and she will have sold the net to "pay for a tax bill"

[minimoke]

It's the busiest week for Tennis Australia of the year. Surely some lack can be cut.

.So, thats one week her attention isnt on ATM. I wouldn't have thought ATM was a part time job.

[mfd]

So, thats one week her attention isnt on ATM. I wouldn't have thought ATM was a part time job.

No, but I'm sure she's entitled to leave just like the rest of us.

[Sideshow Bob]

So, thats one week her attention isnt on ATM. I wouldn't have thought ATM was a part time job.

Australian Open runs for two weeks - just saying!

[couta1]

No, but I'm sure she's entitled to leave just like the rest of us. Hopefully she also takes a rest from selling shares at some point.

[44wishlists]

Why people still remain as a ATM investor if they dislike. or even hate, the director so much? There is no point investing at a company that you do not favourite.

[Ggcc]

Why people still remain as a ATM investor if they dislike. or even hate, the director so much? There is no point investing at a company that you do not favourite.
I agree and with that in mind I am determining whether to stay invested in A2 while our CEO is flicking off all her shares and who remains 0 invested until her next allocation. The company is great, but she still needs to prove herself as the CEO

[couta1]

Why people still remain as a ATM investor if they dislike. or even hate, the director so much? There is no point investing at a company that you do not favourite. This company will succeed despite Herd Licker, it's that good a company, I have no idea how anyone will be able to tell what she has done to make it any better or would a monkey achieve the same result?

[minimoke]

Why people still remain as a ATM investor if they dislike. or even hate, the director so much? There is no point investing at a company that you do not favourite.The two things are mutually exclusive. Its stil early days for Herdlicker - she has some time to prove she adds value to ATM. It remains to be seen how she will do this when she is swanning off to the tennis or maintaining the shabby state of her personal finances and deck

[couta1]

HaHa mm, great minds think alike, both posted at 1:09 basically saying the same thing.

[Leftfield]

Ha ha, you can tell it is a quiet news day. Auckland anniversary day. Australian day. No news. So let's attack the ATM CEO. Golly what a nerve she has to take time off and watch the Australian Tennis open - even sitting beside the Australian Prime Minister (not sure which one, 'cos they keep changing.)

Makes you wonder why people invest in ATM. Perhaps if we look beyond the CEO and personalities, we will see some reasons.

The following table shows what an investment in ATM means for a long term investor who first invested when the ATM SP was 50c

$0.50c to $9.00 = 1800% return
$0.50c to $10.00 = 2,000% return
$0.50c to $11.00 = 2,200% return
$0.50c to $12.00 = 2,400% return
$0.50c to $13.00 = 2,600% return

At around $9.00 I recall many investors saying that ATM was no longer a great investment because 'ATM had achieved its main growth stage, and from hence forth growth would be less,' however, since the $9.00 level the long term investor has made another 600%.

Sure I know not everyone is a long term investor, and my arithmetic isn't always the best, but you get the idea, and just maybe this answers some of the posters above worrying about their investment and the CEO. This example also talks to the benefits of thinking long term, not short term with a growth share such as ATM.

(Disc - LT holder, and not great at maths so DYOR)

[couta1]

ATM is a share for everyone Long Termers/Traders and Shorters regardless of the CEO.

[minimoke]

Ha ha, you can tell it is a quiet news day. Auckland anniversary day. Australian day. No news. So let's attack the ATM CEO. Golly what a nerve she has to take time off and watch the Australian Tennis open - even sitting beside the Australian Prime Minister (not sure which one, 'cos they keep changing.)
I pointed out in my post that she was making a speech. Not everyone on holiday gets to do that. So I presume she was undertaking duties in her primary job and will return to ATM duties when time permits.

We invest in ATM on the expectation that the Board and CEO are fully focused on growing our company. Every now and then they need a tickle up to remind them of our expectations.

And I take your point on this being a longer term thing. CEO's like Jane dont hang on forever.

[mfd]

I pointed out in my post that she was making a speech. Not everyone on holiday gets to do that. So I presume she was undertaking duties in her primary job and will return to ATM duties when time permits.

My employer has never stopped me from talking on my holidays either. I fail to see what the problem is here?

[Ggcc]

My employer has never stopped me from talking on my holidays either. I fail to see what the problem is here?
Are you earning what hrdlicka is earning or are you comparing apples to peaches

[minimoke]

My employer has never stopped me from talking on my holidays either. I fail to see what the problem is here?Have you got a second Job? Does your boss let you take time off work to do your second job. Would he/she let you have a third job? Are you getting up in front of the media and making speeches in your third job.

[Lewylewylewy]

Directors often have a few director positions simultaneously.

[BlackPeter]

This company will succeed despite Herd Licker, it's that good a company, I have no idea how anyone will be able to tell what she has done to make it any better or would a monkey achieve the same result?

Perhaps. I guess you are right - as long as a company does well and is in calm waters, it does not really matter whether they put a monkey at the helm.

As well - it typically takes 5 years for the input of a CEO (whether good or bad) to trickle through the organisation - i.e. the next four years should be still quite safe particularly if the company has plain sailing.

However - a bad CEO is well able to make a ship over time unseaworthy, and I have seen companies which went belly up thanks to incompetent but smooth talking CEO's ... and Jane well might well be one of these high flyers. Just important for her to jump to the next job before the damage becomes visible. How often in the past did she stay longer than 5 years in the same job? Did she ever?

Not sure which value she added to Jetstar ... and not sure either what she could add to A2 milk. However, if we take best case and assume that she won't do damage as some seem to think, than I am wondering why the company pays her many millions per year for doing - nothing. Hire a good looking starlet - pleasant to look at and much cheaper.

[minimoke]

Directors often have a few director positions simultaneously.You wouldn't expect a Director to be a "full time" job so as long as they can handle the governance responsibilities I have no problem with that.

Not so many of them hold multi directorships as well a CEO roles for one of the country's 5th largest corporation.

I guess we can presume whenever the Australian Open is on Jayne will be "on leave" with her ATM "out-of-office" on.

[mfd]

Have you got a second Job? Does your boss let you take time off work to do your second job. Would he/she let you have a third job? Are you getting up in front of the media and making speeches in your third job.

No I don't, but colleagues do. I'm in the scientific world, and second jobs with a university, or professional body, or journal would be pretty normal. My employer is always delighted if I go and talk at a conference even though I'm not employed as a researcher. It's all about developing your skills and networking I guess, and it all adds to your main role and the reputation of the department.

[Baa_Baa]

Does anyone know when herdlicker is due to get more shares? Im looking for an in.

Are you surprised no one answered this? She said she's going to sell her holdings when the vest. It's upto to shareholders to be onto the details, like when those shares vest, how many (lots more than last time) and what window insiders can sell into, and whether there's another time after that. I look at as opportunity to buy as well, there will no doubt be the same vitriol and negative sentiment as before, maybe more next time. People say DYODD, they mean it, DYODD.

[whatsup]

big sell of atm , ideas please.

[alex f]

Fairly normal volume 7.7m and au was about 24m. People were over zealous in the past few weeks 10.50 to 12.50

[Lewylewylewy]

Farmgate price down. china panic.

[couta1]

big sell of atm , ideas please. I'm surprised anyone even responded to this post, it's like asking why does the sun rise and set each day. PS-There is no sell off, that happened when it went from,$14.62 down to $9 odd.PPS-Will break $13.before the result.

[Leftfield]

Why the highly rated Sequoia Fund recently added A2M to the 23 stocks it holds worldwide. Here FYI. (https://anotepad.com/notes/qydx4p)

[Ggcc]

And she’s off.

[see weed]

I'm surprised anyone even responded to this post, it's like asking why does the sun rise and set each day. PS-There is no sell off, that happened when it went from,$14.62 down to $9 odd.PPS-Will break $13.before the result.
Getting closer to 13 couta1. Someone bought 250,000 A2m at 1pm. SP now over A$12

[see weed]

time to be a bear again
Hey bull, that little bear has turned into a bull again. Been in a uptrend for 6 weeks now:t_up:. Getting back all those losses from last year:).

[couta1]

Hey bull, that little bear has turned into a bull again. Been in a uptrend for 6 weeks now:t_up:. Getting back all those losses from last year:). I reckon bull has an animal identity crisis going on.

[Leftfield]

I reckon bull has an animal identity crisis going on.

Yes sir, whenever I read 'Bull' I think 'Bear'.......funny that.

[Joshuatree]

I thank Bull who counters the over the top protective bias hubris that flys on here and elsewhere..

[couta1]

I thank Bull who counters the over the top protective bias hubris that flys on here and elsewhere.. He could always give us a wee break by taking off his sackcloth and just sit in the ashes, I'm sure we would still get the message loud and clear.

[Yoda]

ATM up heaps and SML down...thats unusual .

[Balance]

big sell of atm , ideas please.

OMG!

HUGE buy up of ATM, ideas please!

[thestg]

ATM up heaps and SML down...thats unusual .

Simple reason - a few months ago I sold all my ATM & put it all into SML. Always happens.:eek2:

[carrom74]

Simple reason - a few months ago I sold all my ATM & put it all into SML. Always happens.:eek2:

I did the same... you are not alone!

[Balance]

I did the same... you are not alone!

Short positions being reduced - by 3m shares, 47.5m shares still to cover. What price will they have to pay to remove the stress of ever more margin calls?

$13 is a given if Dow has another good day tomorrow.

[Balance]

Wow!

Not a single comment yesterday even as ATM moved relentlessly towards its previous high since beginning of the year.

Maybe the shorters are rather quiet after feeling the 'burn' as A2M has put on A$1.89 since Dec 31st and on short positions of 50m shares, that's a burn of A$94.5m in a month.

So here's waiting for the panic covering which should take A2M back to previous high when it reports its 1h19 results.

https://www.fool.com.au/2019/01/30/why-this-fund-manager-thought-the-a2-milk-share-price-was-a-buy/

[Balance]

Why the highly rated Sequoia Fund recently added A2M to the 23 stocks it holds worldwide. Here FYI. (https://anotepad.com/notes/qydx4p)

Good summary of why A2M is indeed an outstanding story.

Meanwhile, UBS joins the upgrade party but behind the curve on valuation.

A2M – UBS rates the stock as Neutral By Broker News on 31 Jan 2019

In the wake of in-house research into the Chinese infant formula market, the broker is more cautious on market outlook but positive on a2. The company is expected to outperform and gain share given its product is the highest regarded yet under-penetrated, and there is scope for price increases. The broker lifts its target to NZ$12.80 from NZ$11.80 while retaining Neutral.

[hardt]

Good summary of why A2M is indeed an outstanding story.

Meanwhile, UBS joins the upgrade party but behind the curve on valuation.

A2M – UBS rates the stock as Neutral By Broker News on 31 Jan 2019

In the wake of in-house research into the Chinese infant formula market, the broker is more cautious on market outlook but positive on a2. The company is expected to outperform and gain share given its product is the highest regarded yet under-penetrated, and there is scope for price increases. The broker lifts its target to NZ$12.80 from NZ$11.80 while retaining Neutral.

100% A2 Is the highest regarded IF product with Chinese consumers.

Interesting to note it is also the most expensive already, room for price increases will be needed when volume is reaching maturity.

In China the less your poor neighbor can afford something the more desirable the product is for those that can.
It is a class status to be able to afford the best for your little emperor.

There is a lot more.money on the table within China. Not sure when the party will stop but my own anecdotal evidence suggests it continues to grow.

[Balance]

Shorts have reduced by 3m shares since beginning of 2019.

Still 47.448m shares to cover.

Looks like we will see ATM sp at $13 today?

[Ggcc]

Shorts have reduced by 3m shares since beginning of 2019.

Still 47.448m shares to cover.

Looks like we will see ATM sp at $13 today?
Who knows? It may go down if people increase their shorts

[Lego_Man]

Shorts have reduced by 3m shares since beginning of 2019.

Still 47.448m shares to cover.

Looks like we will see ATM sp at $13 today?


But there are still 734m shares available for longs to sell.

[BlackPeter]

Shorts have reduced by 3m shares since beginning of 2019.

Still 47.448m shares to cover.

Looks like we will see ATM sp at $13 today?

Wouldn't they need to go up to reach the $13 :p?

[Balance]

Wouldn't they need to go up to reach the $13 :p?

Interesting price action - someone just paid up for a chunk of stock on market in Oz at 12.16 pm. Short covering to stop the margin call pain?

Looks like $13 in NZ today is on.

[winner69]

Interesting price action - someone just paid up for a chunk of stock on market in Oz at 12.16 pm. Short covering to stop the margin call pain?

Looks like $13 in NZ today is on.


Going well in Oz today

Looks like $13 in NZ tomorrow is on

[whatsup]

Going well in Oz today

Looks like $13 in NZ tomorrow is on

$12.90 atm

[Ggcc]

This one is going to be exciting tomorrow as well. I am having a happy Waitangi Day at Phil Collins

[Balance]

This one is going to be exciting tomorrow as well. I am having a happy Waitangi Day at Phil Collins

Enjoy, Ggcc. Good friends of mine are down there too and they are thrilled to bits after reading the reviews of Phil's Christchurch concert.

ATM closed in Oz at equivalent of NZ$13.04 :D

[minimoke]

Enjoy, Ggcc. Good friends of mine are down there too and they are thrilled to bits after reading the reviews of Phil's Christchurch concert.

ATM closed in Oz at equivalent of NZ$13.04 :DI've got close at AUD$12.43 = NZD $12.94

[winner69]

I've got close at AUD$12.43 = NZD $12.94

Exchange will change overnight ....NZ$13 when NZX opens

[Ggcc]

Enjoy, Ggcc. Good friends of mine are down there too and they are thrilled to bits after reading the reviews of Phil's Christchurch concert.

ATM closed in Oz at equivalent of NZ$13.04 :D
Thanks Balance. Phil Collins was fantastic and we all had a great time. Your friends would have loved it I’m sure. Now hoping for A2 to perform just as well tomorrow haha

[see weed]

Exchange will change overnight ....NZ$13 when NZX opens
Bit of a blockage at $13. Might have to get the surgeon to work on that this afternoon:).

[allfromacell]

That didn't take long to clear. Expecting some really good results coming up.

[Leftfield]

That didn't take long to clear. Expecting some really good results coming up.

Just back from a few days away and great to see ATM beginning to reclaim its potential. Back over $13.00.

Over in the HC thread there are reports of IF exports ex Lyttelton doubling in Nov/Dec. Exciting times for holders!

[sb9]

Just back from a few days away and great to see ATM beginning to reclaim its potential. Back over $13.00.

Over in the HC thread there are reports of IF exports ex Lyttelton doubling in Nov/Dec. Exciting times for holders!

Yes indeed, exciting times for holders.

Wait till we see the shorts cover in a hurry, could easily push it towards $15 mark.

[see weed]

Anyone on here still buying? I have bought 7 blocks this week. No little sneaky buys going anywhere? :).

[couta1]

Anyone on here still buying? I have bought 7 blocks this week. No little sneaky buys going anywhere? :). No way, just waiting for any profit taking to occur over the next week or so, I like to eat regular meals with this stock as you can have your table wiped clean in short order as has happened many times in the past and will happen in the future.

[Leftfield]

Anyone on here still buying? I have bought 7 blocks this week. No little sneaky buys going anywhere? :).

Good on you See Weed, this stock has been good to you.

My last purchase was in the mid $10's. ATM now over 70% of my portfolio, happy to wait for the results announcement.

[Balance]

Just back from a few days away and great to see ATM beginning to reclaim its potential. Back over $13.00.

Over in the HC thread there are reports of IF exports ex Lyttelton doubling in Nov/Dec. Exciting times for holders!

Shipping in time no doubt for the all critical Lunar New Year where A2M IF will be highly valued as gifts.

Will be a lull after that though so don't be too surprised by a drop off in export volumes in Jan/Feb and pick up again in March. %tage export increases will be the important consideration.

[Leftfield]

Shipping in time no doubt for the all critical Lunar New Year where A2M IF will be highly valued as gifts.

Will be a lull after that though so don't be too surprised by a drop off in export volumes in Jan/Feb and pick up again in March. %tage export increases will be the important consideration.

I seem to recall that SML's production was set to double around October 2019 due to new plant coming on stream? If so, perhaps this 'doubling up' of exports is the 'new normal' not merely a seasonal blip. Time will tell.

[couta1]

Pullback time.

[minimoke]

Pullback time.
A few opening bids sitting there at or above $13.00 at the moment. Lets see if we can get to new recent highs before the inevitable fall.

[allfromacell]

Pullback time.

Some consolidation is expected before blasting to a new ATH after the fantastic results are released on the 20th :P. Might be a good time for some shorts to look for an exit before getting squeezed to oblivion.

[couta1]

Some consolidation is expected before blasting to a new ATH after the fantastic results are released on the 20th :P. Might be a good time for some shorts to look for an exit before getting squeezed to oblivion. Yep shaping up for another mass incineration like last year.

[see weed]

Pullback time.
Good aye, time to buy more before it goes back to 13.20 or more:). Or are those Shorters coming back:mellow:. One positive thing is all the daily lows have been higher for the last 6 days, from 12.06 up to 12.93 yesterday. Maybe having a rest for a few hours or day, then on and up to report day.

[see weed]

Good on you See Weed, this stock has been good to you.

My last purchase was in the mid $10's. ATM now over 70% of my portfolio, happy to wait for the results announcement.
Same here. It held up pretty good today with all the profit takers. Todays low was 6c higher than yesterdays. Up 94c in the last 7 sessions:t_up:, I can't complain about that, and still a couple of weeks before reporting. But couta's right, am keeping a close eye on it. $14 is looking good at this rate some time in the future.

[see weed]

Wow!

Not a single comment yesterday even as ATM moved relentlessly towards its previous high since beginning of the year.

Maybe the shorters are rather quiet after feeling the 'burn' as A2M has put on A$1.89 since Dec 31st and on short positions of 50m shares, that's a burn of A$94.5m in a month.

So here's waiting for the panic covering which should take A2M back to previous high when it reports its 1h19 results.

https://www.fool.com.au/2019/01/30/why-this-fund-manager-thought-the-a2-milk-share-price-was-a-buy/
Yes all quiet, just a big waiting game. Bit over a week for reporting, and waiting for A2M (A@M) to open at noon. A2 been in an up trend for 4 months now. Buyers getting in early for the Feb. update. Last year on 21/2/18 went from 9.50 to $14 over 4 weeks, but looks like we nearly there now maybe see $14 again hopefully.

[see weed]

Good on you See Weed, this stock has been good to you.

My last purchase was in the mid $10's. ATM now over 70% of my portfolio, happy to wait for the results announcement.
Wow L f, you must be pretty happy today, up another 20c this morning:t_up:.

[sb9]

And...we're off..................

[Ggcc]

Wow L f, you must be pretty happy today, up another 20c this morning:t_up:.
It’s only paper gains. I have them as well. It might be safe to consider taking some profit for some who are short term individuals. I am longterm so in no hurry to sell........ yet.

[couta1]

It’s only paper gains. I have them as well. It might be safe to consider taking some profit for some who are short term individuals. I am longterm so in no hurry to sell........ yet. A very good reminder to the over zealous, I remember the VERY large paper gain I had when it hit $14.62, it all but disappeared in one day on the large drop back to $10 at the time.

[Sideshow Bob]

A very good reminder to the over zealous, I remember the VERY large paper gain I had when it hit $14.62, it all but disappeared in one day on the large drop back to $10 at the time.

Wonder how many of those $14.62 buyers still own.....I think they'd have a completely different perspective to most holders around here....

[minimoke]

Wonder how many of those $14.62 buyers still own.....I think they'd have a completely different perspective to most holders around here....Thats me. I held. Dropped so fast I missed my stop loss so I had to decide on either taking a larger loss or riding it out. I have a long term view so decided to ride it out.

[Sideshow Bob]

Maybe trying to get to $14.00 NZ today.....

[Balance]

A very good reminder to the over zealous, I remember the VERY large paper gain I had when it hit $14.62, it all but disappeared in one day on the large drop back to $10 at the time.

Courage of conviction.

As Warren Buffett says, treat any fall as another opportunity to 'steal' stocks from the impatient and the scared.

I did at under $10:D

[Leftfield]

Maybe trying to get to $14.00 NZ today.....

$14.00 just a question when (not if.) IMHO.

[couta1]

Courage of conviction.

As Warren Buffett says, treat any fall as another opportunity to 'steal' stocks from the impatient and the scared.

I did at under $10:D Savvy traders have done as well as most holders of this stock and had a whole heap of fun to boot.

[Balance]

Courage of conviction.

As Warren Buffett says, treat any fall as another opportunity to 'steal' stocks from the impatient and the scared.

I did at under $10:D

Shorters continuing to cover but still 46.5m shares shorted at last update.

So we have seen shorts reduced from a peak in recent times of 50.8m shares in Dec 2018 (when sp was $10.00) to the 46.5m - down 4.3m shares and shorters probably down around $10m.

Ouch!

How satisfying is it to buy off them at under $10 and sell back to them at over $13? :D

[couta1]

Shorters continuing to cover but still 46.5m shares shorted at last update.

So we have seen shorts reduced from a peak in recent times of 50.8m shares in Dec 2018 (when sp was $10.00) to the 46.5m - down 4.3m shares and shorters probably down around $10m.

Ouch!

How satisfying is it to buy off them at under $10 and sell back to them at over $13? :D Unless your a shorter of the highest order, it's just plain nuts to short this stock.PS-Im probably biased due to never having shorted any stock due to Fear.Lol

[Leftfield]

Wow L f, you must be pretty happy today, up another 20c this morning:t_up:.

Yep v happy long term holder. Now a 24 plus bagger for me. :t_up:

When I started investing 5 years ago tales of 10 baggers (and more) were just the stuff of dreams!!

[couta1]

Yep v happy long term holder. Now a 24 plus bagger for me. :t_up:

When I started investing 5 years ago tales of 10 baggers (and more) were just the stuff of dreams!! Congrats to you on this one, must be a great feeling to achieve that.

[Leftfield]

Congrats to you on this one, must be a great feeling to achieve that.

Thanks Couta, I owe a great deal of thanks to this forum as I have learned heaps from all the discussions.

[bull....]

atm hasnt looked back from breaking out of its very long time range , implies some where around 14 i guess

[minimoke]

Yes all quiet, just a big waiting game. Bit over a week for reporting, and waiting for A2M to open at noon. A2 been in an up trend for 4 months now. Buyers getting in early for the Feb. update. Last year on 21/2/18 went from 9.50 to $14 over 4 weeks, but looks like we nearly there now maybe see $14 again hopefully.Do we know reporting date. 21 Feb last year, 15 Feb in 2017.

[allfromacell]

Do we know reporting date. 21 Feb last year, 15 Feb in 2017.

I'm not sure why they haven't released a note confirming the details yet but their website states 20th.

https://thea2milkcompany.com/investor-centre/key-dates/

[Ggcc]

Quite a lot of trading value in nz. Why is that?

[Sideshow Bob]

Yep v happy long term holder. Now a 24 plus bagger for me. :t_up:

When I started investing 5 years ago tales of 10 baggers (and more) were just the stuff of dreams!!

Jeepers, and here I was quietly celebrating crossing the line to only being a 20x bagger! :p

[see weed]

Jeepers, and here I was quietly celebrating crossing the line to only being a 20x bagger! :p
27 bagger over here, but there are plenty of others with more bags than that. Still got a block of 50c ones bought in early 2015:t_up:. In the green 454k now, but would of been 4.6 mil. if I hadn't sold the other 300k at 70c :mellow:, but all good and happy with that. Come on now Mr. $14, keep going:D Pump pump pump.

[777]

The kermits will stop these bags at some stage.

[see weed]

The kermits will stop these bags at some stage.
But we can have a bit of fun in the meantime;).

[couta1]

27 bagger over here, but there are plenty of others with more bags than that. Still got a block of 50c ones bought in early 2015:t_up:. In the green 454k now, but would of been 4.6 mil. if I hadn't sold the other 300k at 70c :mellow:, but all good and happy with that. Come on now Mr. $14, keep going:D Pump pump pump. HaHa, yes but I think you mean could have been 4.6 mill, I'm sure many of us could tell similar stories yet we are all way better off than those less bold or those that have never held.

[see weed]

HaHa, yes but I think you mean could have been 4.6 mill, I'm sure many of us could tell similar stories yet we are all way better off than those less bold or those that have never held.
Sorry about the English, but my edgamacation wasn't that great, and didn't pass any subjects in school cert, I was too busy entertaining my peers as it said on the yearly report.

[Balance]

atm hasnt looked back from breaking out of its very long time range , implies some where around 14 i guess

Closed on ASX at NZ$13.50.

$14 is easy from here as the shorters reach the point of maximum pain.

[Baa_Baa]

Closed on ASX at NZ$13.50.

$14 is easy from here as the shorters reach the point of maximum pain.

The down trend breakout was text book, easy trade. I think the flagpole breakup gets (almost) there but stalls at the all time highs. What follows is of more interest. Punters need to know Jayne said she'd sell her vested interests and we saw what happened last time that happened. Timing is crucial.

[see weed]

The down trend breakout was text book, easy trade. I think the flagpole breakup gets (almost) there but stalls at the all time highs. What follows is of more interest. Punters need to know Jayne said she'd sell her vested interests and we saw what happened last time that happened. Timing is crucial.
I agree with what you are saying, but what will be her payout..2 or 3 mill? What is their capitalisation, 9.8bil? What is their bank bal. 300mil? $42mill. turnerover on Aus and NZX today? How much effect would 3mil. have on those figures. I think the shorters were the bigger cause of the down trend back then.

[couta1]

I agree with what you are saying, but what will be her payout..2 or 3 mill? What is their capitalisation, 9.8bil? What is their bank bal. 300mil? $42mill. turnerover on Aus and NZX today? How much effect would 3mil. have on those figures. I think the shorters were the bigger cause of the down trend back then. It's all about sentiment, her selling gives the shorters the opportunity to dictate SP momentum and don't forget there are other senior management also holding large numbers of shares,add to that Insto manipulation and you have a Game of Thrones. PS-Im guessing the true long term holders are very much in the minority when it comes to this stock.

[Southern_Belle]

China - NZ relations hit new low headline might take the steam out today. https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12202902

[hardt]

I agree with what you are saying, but what will be her payout..2 or 3 mill? What is their capitalisation, 9.8bil? What is their bank bal. 300mil? $42mill. turnerover on Aus and NZX today? How much effect would 3mil. have on those figures. I think the shorters were the bigger cause of the down trend back then.

As irrelevant as it is, a CEO selling for whatever reason is seen as a signal of bad things to come.

No matter how understandable the reason, opportunists love pumping fear into weak minds.

[Leftfield]

I'm pretty sure the 'blame Jane' game has been overdone. Time to move on.

If the next results report sales increases of (say) 40% and NPAT up (say) by 50 to 60% then the fundamentals will win out over shorters and SP will increase over current levels.

Meanwhile ATM has just released some more research on Irritable Bowl Syndrome (IBS), this time with a huge sample size that found amongst other things.....

"Of the 5,535 adults, 2,876 either had a professional diagnosis of IBS or considered that they had IBS. Those who reported that alleviating IBS symptoms was their primary reason for buying a2 Milk™ (862/5,335) completed a series of questions specific to this condition. It was remarkable to record that 83% of the cohort had experienced an improvement in their IBS symptoms after changing from conventional to a2 Milk™"

As an IBS sufferer myself, I endorse these findings, they are one of the reasons I was an early investor in this company.

[bull....]

China - NZ relations hit new low headline might take the steam out today. https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12202902

a2 held up at customs would be a biggie for the share price , just a risk to be aware off if things go south. anyway looks like china just trying bully tactics like they do with any country who dis pleases them ala sth korea and aus i think have been down this road lately.

[BlackPeter]

a2 held up at customs would be a biggie for the share price , just a risk to be aware off if things go south. anyway looks like china just trying bully tactics like they do with any country who dis pleases them ala sth korea and aus i think have been down this road lately.

Well, our Chinese friends are clearly as effective in bullying their trade partners as our North American friends (and I don't mean Canada or Mexico ...).
Oops - isn't this the other country A2 tries to make inroads into? How about a 25% tariff on milk powder? For sure Trump needs to be worried about America not being first in bullying us ...

[minimoke]

a2 held up at customs would be a biggie for the share price , .A hold up only until the mothers start screaming for A2 formula for their princesses.

[mfd]

Well, our Chinese friends are clearly as effective in bullying their trade partners as our North American friends (and I don't mean Canada or Mexico ...).
Oops - isn't this the other country A2 tries to make inroads into? How about a 25% tariff on milk powder? For sure Trump needs to be worried about America not being first in bullying us ...

A2 milk sold in America is made in America. No tariff issue. Infant formula may be different but I haven't heard anything about A2 trying to sell formula in the US, just liquid milk. Please correct me if I'm wrong.

[BlackPeter]

A2 milk sold in America is made in America. No tariff issue. Infant formula may be different but I haven't heard anything about A2 trying to sell formula in the US, just liquid milk. Please correct me if I'm wrong.

Well, I suppose amazon is delivering to the US - aren't they?

https://www.amazon.com/a2-Platinum-Baby-Formula-Toddler

But than, it looks like the product is currently not available anyway ...

[Balance]

Well, our Chinese friends are clearly as effective in bullying their trade partners as our North American friends (and I don't mean Canada or Mexico ...).
Oops - isn't this the other country A2 tries to make inroads into? How about a 25% tariff on milk powder? For sure Trump needs to be worried about America not being first in bullying us ...

Bullying as in France imposing trade barriers on NZ so that NZ had no choice but to release their criminals (Rainbow Warriors terrorists)?

[BlackPeter]

Bullying as in France imposing trade barriers on NZ so that NZ had no choice but to release their criminals (Rainbow Warriors terrorists)?

I am sure there are many others ... and, to be fair - China certainly feels bullied by Trump and his lackeys as well.

Just imagine - we are blocking the purchase of perfectly good Chinese telecommunication equipment just because the US claims (without evidence) that they might do with their equipment the same to the West than what the US was trying to do with their chips and equipment in China (and other countries)!

But hey, I think this is the wrong thread to expand on this subject and will cease to do so here.

Just wanted to highlight that there are maybe more potential risks for A2 than some of the investors seem to think ...

[mfd]

Well, I suppose amazon is delivering to the US - aren't they?

https://www.amazon.com/a2-Platinum-Baby-Formula-Toddler

But than, it looks like the product is currently not available anyway ...

Perhaps it's available, sure. But the US strategy is very different to the China strategy. One is based around locally produced liquid milk, the other on imported formula.

[nizzy]

A2 milk sold in America is made in America. No tariff issue. Infant formula may be different but I haven't heard anything about A2 trying to sell formula in the US, just liquid milk. Please correct me if I'm wrong.
All milk powders subject to duties on entry to USA. For NZ only a certain quota of cheeses, proteins & i think small vol of butter get tariff relief. ATM will be using local milk for their liquid sales in NE USA. Doubt they have much interest in getting into the complex IF market in US which is largely driven by large State tenders for food programmes.

[Balance]

I am sure there are many others ... and, to be fair - China certainly feels bullied by Trump and his lackeys as well.

Just imagine - we are blocking the purchase of perfectly good Chinese telecommunication equipment just because the US claims (without evidence) that they might do with their equipment the same to the West than what the US was trying to do with their chips and equipment in China (and other countries)!

But hey, I think this is the wrong thread to expand on this subject and will cease to do so here.

Just wanted to highlight that there are maybe more potential risks for A2 than some of the investors seem to think ...

I actually think it is a very pertinent risk to all NZ exporters as China holds the upper hand when it comes to trade with us.

We are able to compete in China on the back of the huge store of goodwill built up over the years by the Clark government (first FTA in the world with China by an OECD country) and then, John Key's smooth diplomacy of making sure that NZ did not get offside with Western vs China politics.

Now we have an inexperienced blundering government simply following in the shadows of US and Australia in antagonizing China with all kinds of silly decisions.

Definitely a risk to watch and monitor very carefully.

[see weed]

Yes all quiet, just a big waiting game. Bit over a week for reporting, and waiting for A2M to open at noon. A2 been in an up trend for 4 months now. Buyers getting in early for the Feb. update. Last year on 21/2/18 went from 9.50 to $14 over 4 weeks, but looks like we nearly there now maybe see $14 again hopefully.
Same as yesterday, but thought sp would have dropped by now with all the negative talk lately. See how it goes at noon.

[winner69]

What was the previous all time high for ATM

[minimoke]

What was the previous all time high for ATM........$14.62?

[allfromacell]

Shorts starting to close, still plenty still open though. We might see a spike on results day like last year and then a prolonged cool off period. This company is fantastic but is it really worth $10B NZD, that'll be more than Qantas.

10307

Disc: Still overweight looking to sell a few more at $15 hopefully sooner than expected.

[BlackPeter]

What was the previous all time high for ATM

$14.62 nearly a year ago (22. 2. 18), but closed that day significantly lower. If we get a double top, this would be an amazing entry point for shorters ;);

[winner69]

$14.62 nearly a year ago (22. 2. 18), but closed that day significantly lower. If we get a double top, this would be an amazing entry point for shorters ;);

Thanks

That was what some called a blow off top

[sb9]

Thanks

That was what some called a blow off top

Yes, it did blow off top. Offloaded some at that time around $14 mark and bought more of those at low $10s late last year. If it blows off again like last year, will lock in some profits.

[Leftfield]

I actually think it is a very pertinent risk to all NZ exporters as China holds the upper hand when it comes to trade with us.

We are able to compete in China on the back of the huge store of goodwill built up over the years by the Clark government (first FTA in the world with China by an OECD country) and then, John Key's smooth diplomacy of making sure that NZ did not get offside with Western vs China politics.

Now we have an inexperienced blundering government simply following in the shadows of US and Australia in antagonizing China with all kinds of silly decisions.

Definitely a risk to watch and monitor very carefully.

As this article reports (https://edition.cnn.com/2019/02/11/business/china-economy-growth-data/index.html), China has a lot of more serious issues to confront and the 'Tariff Wars' are beginning to highlight some of these weaknesses.

Against this there will be a lot of pressure on the Chinese Govt by its own growing middle class to maintain the quality of life that it people are now used to.

As an insurance against over reliance on China I would like to see ATM strengthening ties in other Asian countries such as South Korea, Japan etc.

[sb9]

Might try to claim the $14 mark today on back of strong US markets.

[bull....]

Might try to claim the $14 mark today on back of strong US markets.

a2 under performed yest maybe make up today but maybe waiting for results

[sb9]

a2 under performed yest maybe make up today but maybe waiting for results

Guessing you're now long on A2, hey bull...

[bull....]

Guessing you're now long on A2, hey bull...

t/a means being long or short when appropriate , a2 is a good stock for both plays

[sb9]

t/a means being long or short when appropriate , a2 is a good stock for both plays

For sure, its good trading stock if you're upto it and time it well as a trader.

[bull....]

For sure, its good trading stock if you're upto it and time it well as a trader.

yes takes some balls sometimes with this stock