ATM - A2 Milk Corporation Limited

[MAC]

This from the Dietitians Association of Australia I think sums it up pretty well;
A2 milk has been available on the Australian market since March 2003. To date, there is no solid scientific evidence demonstrating that A2 milk is better for you than regular milk. As there is no food safety issue with either type of milk people are encouraged to keep drinking either A1 or A2 milk as a nutritious food.

http://daa.asn.au/for-the-public/smart-eating-for-you/nutrition-a-z/a2-milk/

I think there is a significant risk that the claims of supposed health benefits will come unstuck at some point.

I’ve always looked at it this way Black Knat.

There will be ongoing debate for a few years yet, if not decades, and not all health professionals will agree, some for, some against, but the more debate that is had, the more awareness that is created, and the more sales will result as folk give it a try for themselves.

It's not ATM's goal to be a mainstream fresh milk supplier, as was clarified during the last AGM, they offer an innovative product into a niche market and can thus demand a price premium. The longevity of the debate provides for the longevity in price premium.

Having said that there has been quite a lot of research performed since 2003, and there are now over a 100 scientific reports in support. The trend amongst professionals seems to be increasingly supportive as time goes by also.

http://www.betacasein.org/index.php
http://www.a2milk.co.uk/healthcareprofessionals/

That recent report on the rat tests is quite interesting and compelling;

http://keithwoodford.wordpress.com/2...une-reactions/ (http://keithwoodford.wordpress.com/2014/01/06/a1-beta-casein-gut-inflammation-and-immune-reactions/)

[Snoopy]

So is there anybody out there who thinks ATM isn't a great long term investment and why? What do you see as the big risks to ATM?

Snoopy I know you have previously said it's well overpriced given the current earnings (PE). However I would argue if you look at how well they've done in Australia, how much profit they could be posting and the size of the market left to penetrate (amongst other factors) then a high PE based on current earnings is justifiable.

Thanks in advance. NBT


NBT, we know that the Australian supermarket duopoly is globally one of the most difficult to get shelf space in. The fact that A2 milk from little ol' New Zealand has done it is a major marketing coup. I don't know anyone who would not respect ATM for what they have achieved in Australia. I think the mistake some make is to assume it will be just be a cakewalk rolling out A2 to the rest of the world, using the logic that if you can expand into Australia you must be 'tough enough' to succeed everywhere else.

I have spent a bit of time visiting the UK over the last few years. Over there the supermarket pie is divided up rather differently. You have Asda, Tesco, Sainsburys, The Co-operative Group, Morrison's and Waitrose for starters. Then there are other second tier chains: Iceland , Aldi. I could go on but you get the picture.

My feeling is that getting a foothold in one Australian chain was the difficult bit. When Coles gets something that sells, then Woolies has to have it and vica versa. However, getting your item into one major UK chain may not mean others are compelled to follow. There is a big difference when your first customer sales chain penetration opens 40% of the market, as opposed to maybe 6%. Thus my feeling is that A2 penetration into other new markets is likely to be slower than what happened in Australia.

Following this logic track, I would suggest new market development expenses are likely to be higher than the market generally assumes and profitability lower than expected. It seems to be inescapable that ATM will require more capital to make a go of their global roll out. The evidence is last time this happened those putting in new capital demanded a steep discount to market price (shares trading in the 70s new shares issued at 50c IIRC).

So while I have respect for the A2 story as a global marketing exercise, I have less respect for A2 value putting my investors hat on. On any fundamental measure those shares which sophisticated investors subscribed to at 50c were by no means cheap (PE north of 50). There was still a lot of blue sky built into the A2 story if you were stumping up 50c a share. But obviously those sophisticated investors thought it was much more than a punt given they were prepared to pay so high an earnings multiple. I guess judging what you are prepared to pay for future cashflows will determine where you see the value of ATM settling. From where I sit I can see a high certainty of negative cashflow coming up and a rather less certain picture of positive cashflow way out sometime when. On balance I am sold on the product, although I do acknowledge some issues around the science. But I am not sold on putting in money at anything close to 70c to be part of today's projected cashflow plan.

SNOOPY

[MAC]

True, and if a2 milk had 2000 years of traditional Chinese medicine behind it I would be a lot more comfortable.

Just to to back up the truck a little, in raising these issues I was responding to a request from NBT asking for downside views on this stock. As you can see NBT there is room for significant differences of view about the merits of the science behind a2. I would be careful for that reason.

Yep, the more debate the better, health professionals, investors, and within the family.

debate --> awareness --> sales.

[airedale]

I don't suppose that Milford are too worried about picking the exact bottom.

[nextbigthing]

I don't suppose that Milford are too worried about picking the exact bottom.

Exactly, they're thinking long term.

Thanks for your suggestions BK and Snoopy, something to ponder.

[nextbigthing]

The ATM chart had a DEATH CROSS on it the other day (50ma / 200ma), usually not a good sign and price action since supports this view.

Just thought you punters might be interested

But some punters think death crosses are BULLISH so no worries

So in your view Milford got it wrong Winner?

[winner69]

So in your view Milford got it wrong Winner?

Didn't say that at all .....just pointing out that a Death Wish crossing on the chart. Means as we know only happens in downtrends but some punters say such events are bullish.

Milford have to put their money somewhere. They obviously think that ATM is one of the better bets around so prepared to be overweight to some extent. Good on them in sticking to their convictions.

[winner69]

Think he's more on to MAC than Milfie. Milford cannot buy up all they want in one hit (obviously), so averaging down seems to be theeonly option. They must see ATM as currently undervalued in the long term to be hoovering them up as the MAs cross. We smaller traders need to have more patience as I doubt the bottom is anywhere but "in" yet and don't have unlimited funds!

PS - Kerp an eye out for a propaganda piece from Gaynor pumping ATM (and I say that with all respect!!!)

Prob right with that PS moosie .......successful fund management is all about marketing, not actually investing.

[nextbigthing]

They obviously think that ATM is one of the better bets around so prepared to be overweight to some extent. Good on them in sticking to their convictions.

You don't sound convinced that it's the right move though!?

[psychic]

Of course this all assumes Milford has not had a sudden change of heart since last disclosure and is now the big Seller.. :eek2:

Runs for cover

[nextbigthing]

Of course this all assumes Milford has not had a sudden change of heart since last disclosure and is now the big Seller.. :eek2:

Runs for cover

Haha nice.

I see Milford are trumpeting a Morningstar award 2/3rds of the way down the following page. Maybe they are losing their touch.

http://milfordasset.com/investing/private-wealth/overview/

[MAC]

“A cynic is a man who knows the price of everything, and the value of nothing.”
– Oscar Wilde

[nextbigthing]

One buy order for 600000 @ 69c this morning. Could be an interesting day.

[ziggy415]

There is no scientific evidence that eating deer velvet will give you an erection either yet in Asia it sell's for over $200 a kilo in the belief that it helps create erections and they can't get enough of it.
could be a new marketing campaign for A2 milk....where do you buy this milk:t_up:

[ddrone]

There seems to be a freeze, anyone else seeing this?

[couta1]

There seems to be a freeze, anyone else seeing this?
The freeze is coming and going maybe technical issue?

[NT001]

Just as a general response from a new boy on the thread to suggestions that the science behind ATM is suspect: If that is so, why aren't we seeing the mainstream industry (including Fonterra) with its huge global research resources actually disputing it with scientific fact and argument? Why have we not seen any scientific rebuttal of Woodford's book and subsequent blog reports, which are based on scores of peer-reviewed studies? It would be totally in the industry's interest to rebut the A1-A2 milk thesis IF IT COULD, because the unavoidable implication of it is that most of the world's cows-milk supply which contains the A1 beta-casein poses a health threat.

The only attempt at a rebuttal that I'm aware of was some years ago by an Australian professor named Trusswell, a paid consultant for the Australian dairy industry, whose attempt was quickly shot down because it was based on the results of a clinical trial involving rodents that is now utterly discredited. Why? Because the food samples fed to them were contaminated (due to an unexplained error by the Dairy Board which was involved in the trial).

What we often read is material questioning the A2 thesis based on statements by food safety authorities etc in various countries that there is insufficient proof or no convincing proof. The NZFSA has been outrageously guilty of twisting the truth on this, even misrepresenting the results of meta-research which it commissioned for itself. Part of the NZFSA's mandate is to assure overseas markets that NZ's milk exports are safe for human consumption, which it wouldn't be able to do if it admitted knowing there was credible evidence of risks attached to A1 milk. When the head of the European FSA was called in by the government to check on NZFSA's misrepresentation, he was highly critical of it, and did not say the A2 hypothesis was wrong or even "suspect", just that more clinical proof was needed. The food safety authorities say quite rightly that cows milk is an essential nutrient especially for infants and young children, and they just don't want to scare people off drinking it simply because it appears a limited percentage of consumers who are predisposed medically are going to acquire diabetes, CHD or autism from drinking A1 milk.

Someone mentioned a lack of epidemiological evidence. That's incorrect. It was epidemiological data that actually LED TO the identification of A1 as a risk factor for heart disease, diabetes etc in the first place. And it's quite compelling. But epidemiology is not clinical proof of cause and effect, and that's what the scientists are working on now. You need clinical trials, eventually on humans. Which will take time to design, get ethical approval for and run, and you can be sure the industry is not going to kick in funding for them.

My own fear is that ATM will be bought out by the mainstream dairy industry and effectively closed down. But that may be too late, because scientists all round the world are now working on the A1-A2 issue and a lot of farmers are moving to A2-only, so the facts will emerge and the product will carry on even without help from ATM. The mainstream industry must be very worried by the way the scientific evidence is moving.

The current focus on A2 Milk being easier to digest is probably a mere temporary side-issue and a useful short-term profit-earner, based largely on the anecdotal experience of consumers. It is nothing compared to the bigger issue involving the A1 link with heart disease, diabetes, autism and possibly SIDS and other conditions. It is not inconceivable that Big Dairy may eventually face the kind of problems now faced by the tobacco industry which argued successfully for decades that there was "no proof" of a link between smoking and cancer, and is now having to cough up massive damages and admit its product is lethal.

[Tsuba]

great post....
Even with all this put to one side their has never been a better time in history to come to the market place with products that consumers believe(rightly or wrongly, proved or not) may offer some health benefits.
Like many have already said on this thread just by publicly debating it raises awareness and this will turn into sales....look what desperate measure competitors are trying to do in the Aussie market.

Very well said Snapster. Just like your favourite PEB. The more we argue about it the more the doctors etc will be aware of it. ;)

[winner69]

I am just a learner when it come's to TA but do know that traders use a break down through the 200dma as very bearish.
I like to use volume trading patterns.... for example it was obvious due to the unusual amount of off market trade's earlier in the week that an insto was off loading.
Insto's are master of stock manipulation and while they unload off market they will attempt to steady the on market price.(very little volume is required in ATM to do this in comparison to the level of off market dumping).
This created false support and is why the stock held up remarkebly well earlier in the week.
Please refer to my post 61 made earlier in the week on the NZX short term trades thread.

Since then the chart shows a death cross

As punters were happy when the ATM price keeper bouncing off the 200ma (strong support) after a death cross the 200ma (soon to be heading down) becomes resistance implying a sustainable uptrend from here is unlikely for a while

[MAC]

Immediately after the last ATM "death cross" the share price went up from 50c to 96c (+92%). The one prior went from 11c to 68c.

[Jasemc]

Bone rolling, tea leave reading, TA hooey;

Immediately after the last ATM "death cross" the share price went up from 50c to 96c (+92%). The one prior went from 11c to 68c.

Yep this company is a long play if you want in. It will go up and down until it has proven profit history in more than just Australia. If bad new comes out of China and Uk then down she goes from here. If good news then up. Simple really. Those who bought in the 80s ,90s hope for good news. If or when another market is profitable then I think this share will fly to the sky but then I still think a big company will try to take it over. when is their next half or full year due?

[winner69]

Immediately after the last ATM "death cross" the share price went up from 50c to 96c (+92%). The one prior went from 11c to 68c.

Where's your fancy preamble gone mate ..I liked it

Yes you are right, as usual, death crosses have been good to ATM

I did say yesterday some punters say death crosses are BULLISH. See nobody really knows eh, hence why I liked your preamble that has disappeared

Still stays on the Watchlist ...not convinced to buy yet.

Prob my kiwisaver fund has heaps ....though recent returns may be down because of ATM the rate the manager is buying

[Bobcat.]

Wedge has formed with 69c as the support but with lower consecutive highs over the past week - 75, 74, 72, 71.

I'm sitting on my hands until I see a higher high. My guess is we'll see the price drop through 69c before it bounces back. 9 months ago it found good support at 65-67c. It could easily drop to there next week before lifting again.

Trading to it.

BC

[hilskin]

Looks like A2 baby formula is very popular in Oz.

Facebook Member 28/06/2014

Can you please tell me why Woolworths don't sell a2 formula? I'm forever having to go into coles just to get it as they seem to be the only ones that have it in stock (sometimes I have to call ahead in case they don't! ) Are you going to be increasing production of the formula to keep up with the demand? Thanks in advance.

a2 Milk (https://www.facebook.com/a2milk) reply
Hi Kristina, We're really sorry that you have had trouble finding our products. Due to very high demand for our formula the products are getting sold out everywhere, we are doing everything possible including airfreighting to re-supply stocks to the market. Coles and pharmacies are currently being re-supplied and stocks will be available within this week. Thanks you for your patience and if you need any more information, please contact our Customer Careline on 1800 22 46 32 or email us via this linkhttp://a2nutrition.com.au/contact-us/email-us/

[MAC]

Looks like A2 baby formula is very popular in Oz.

Facebook Member 28/06/2014

Can you please tell me why Woolworths don't sell a2 formula? I'm forever having to go into coles just to get it as they seem to be the only ones that have it in stock (sometimes I have to call ahead in case they don't! ) Are you going to be increasing production of the formula to keep up with the demand? Thanks in advance.

a2 Milk (https://www.facebook.com/a2milk) reply
Hi Kristina, We're really sorry that you have had trouble finding our products. Due to very high demand for our formula the products are getting sold out everywhere, we are doing everything possible including airfreighting to re-supply stocks to the market. Coles and pharmacies are currently being re-supplied and stocks will be available within this week. Thanks you for your patience and if you need any more information, please contact our Customer Careline on 1800 22 46 32 or email us via this linkhttp://a2nutrition.com.au/contact-us/email-us/

Clearly then they can't make it quick enough, and with the Synlait plant having surplus capacity right now, I can imagine ATM negotiating for ever increasing production volumes.

[hilskin]

I be thinking this is good news :)
We should be finding out soon whether or not Synlait has chinese approval, anyone know the time line on this?

[MAC]

From the SML thread, should be anytime about now Hilskin.


Has anyone any advice, or a progress report perhaps, on the commissioning status of the new dry blending and consumer packaging facility, due to be ready around about now ?

My understanding is that the CNCA (Certification and Accreditation Administration of the People's Republic of China) requires that dry blending and packaging be performed at the manufacturers facility. With SML constructing a new facility, it’s completion and subsequent approval is required before regulatory requirements can be satisfied, and a risk management plan approved by the MPI.

Should be any time now if the construction and commissioning schedule is on time.

https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/193258.pdf.

[hilskin]

Thanks MAC

[zigzag]

Completion in June, we hope. Then it needs to be commissioned, and accredited by the Chinese. So, at a guess, we could be looking at late July. I've just increased my holding in SML so I am hoping that all goes according to the plan.

[see weed]

Completion in June, we hope. Then it needs to be commissioned, and accredited by the Chinese. So, at a guess, we could be looking at late July. I've just increased my holding in SML so I am hoping that all goes according to the plan.

Just bought 10000 for a laugh.

[MAC]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/retailandconsumer/9980224/Stores-limit-baby-milk-sales-on-China-black-market-fears.html

And, someone is exporting A2 Platinum to China at only AUD $189.99 + $84.99 postage.

http://www.ebay.com.au/itm/like/181325474072?clk_rvr_id=661722268825&crlp=1_262691&mt_id=641&mid=428969&sdc_id=1404370043z364088z53073b0a20899z&fitem=181325474072&linkin_id=8081641&kw=%7Bquery%7D&crdt=0&sortbid=22

Just adds to the empty shelves, shortages and high demand in Australia.

[Master98]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/retailandconsumer/9980224/Stores-limit-baby-milk-sales-on-China-black-market-fears.html

And, someone is exporting A2 Platinum to China at only AUD $189.99 + $84.99 postage.

http://www.ebay.com.au/itm/like/181325474072?clk_rvr_id=661722268825&crlp=1_262691&mt_id=641&mid=428969&sdc_id=1404370043z364088z53073b0a20899z&fitem=181325474072&linkin_id=8081641&kw=%7Bquery%7D&crdt=0&sortbid=22

Just adds to the empty shelves, shortages and high demand in Australia.

http://a2nutrition.tmall.com/

A2 Platinum on sale for 488 chinese dollars( nz$90) in china, and young chinese couples are very happy about this product as it is made from A2 milk.

[zcyong]

online sales only 31 tins a month in tianmao

[MAC]

The interesting thing about the recent 31% drop in global dairy trade (GDT) prices is that a 2 litre bottle of A2 milk on the supermarket shelf in Australia is still selling at $5, exactly as it was this time last year.

http://shop.coles.com.au/online/SearchDisplay?storeId=10601&catalogId=10576&langId=-1&beginIndex=0&browseView=false&searchSource=Q&sType=SimpleSearch&resultCatEntryType=2&showResultsPage=true&pageView=image&searchTerm=a2

ANZ yesterday downgraded its forecast farm gate milk price to $6.25/kg of milk solids compared with Fonterra's $7/kg forecast issued in May.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/trade/news/article.cfm?c_id=96&objectid=11286479

This can only be a good thing for ATM as it seems farm gate milk prices have confidently peaked earlier in the year and are now heading back toward historical levels more associated with 2011 and 2012, ..... great.

And, with across the counter A2 retail prices holding and A2 farm gate prices probably dropping we may see even further gross margin expansion, ..... even greater.

A2 premium at the farm gate: 8 to 10%
A2 premium at the supermarket: 50%

5990

[NT001]

Isn't it the case that Ridge is the company that makes most of the profit in NZ, paying A2Corp some kind of licence fee, where as the real profit for A2Corp is in Australia? Anyway, Australia's a much bigger market. Pity about the delay with Chinese approval for Synlait, but even so their shares have risen today. I'm still very confident about ATM despite the current dip in SP, same for PEB - I think innovative tech stocks are probably being hit by the spate of new issues coming on the market. Some people like to buy into new companies, and I guess we should all be pleased to see some new offerings in the market. As long as Milford is buying, I'm very comfortable.

[see weed]

Isn't it the case that Ridge is the company that makes most of the profit in NZ, paying A2Corp some kind of licence fee, where as the real profit for A2Corp is in Australia? Anyway, Australia's a much bigger market. Pity about the delay with Chinese approval for Synlait, but even so their shares have risen today. I'm still very confident about ATM despite the current dip in SP, same for PEB - I think innovative tech stocks are probably being hit by the spate of new issues coming on the market. Some people like to buy into new companies, and I guess we should all be pleased to see some new offerings in the market. As long as Milford is buying, I'm very comfortable.

20,000,000, I think, in the last 3 or 4 weeks

[MAC]

I've been topping up like Milford too, the DCF is providing a valuation of FY14 $1.09 (+58%).

I also suspect we may see a rights issue to finance the pending entry into the US market rather than a slower entry funded just from revenues, go big or go home. An announcement on the US strategy must be close now.

Valuation Basis:


WACC 11.25%, 30yr PG 3.0%, 35% gross margins, 5% net margins from FY16

ATM announced numerical goals;

- Infant formula sales to china of $60M representing a 1% market share by 2016.
- A UK target of 1.8% market share by 2016
- An Australian market share of 10% recently brought forward to "by mid 2015", was 2016
- Total revenues of $280M by 2016

5994
5995

[Lease]

I've been topping up like Milford too, the DCF is providing a valuation of FY14 $1.09 (+58%).

I also suspect we may see a rights issue to finance the pending entry into the US market rather than a slower entry funded just from revenues, go big or go home. An announcement on the US strategy must be close now.

Valuation Basis:


WACC 11.25%, 30yr PG 3.0%, 35% gross margins, 5% net margins from FY16

ATM announced numerical goals;

- Infant formula sales to china of $60M representing a 1% market share by 2016.
- A UK target of 1.8% market share by 2016
- An Australian market share of 10% recently brought forward to "by mid 2015", was 2016
- Total revenues of $280M by 2016

5994
5995




DCF is the most unreliable method for valuation. If the assumptions have even 0.1% discrepancy, the result will be huge different.

[nextbigthing]

DCF is the most unreliable method for valuation. If the assumptions have even 0.1% discrepancy, the result will be huge different.

What's your valuation for ATM Lease and how do you arrive at it?

[dingoNZ]

DCF is the most unreliable method for valuation. If the assumptions have even 0.1% discrepancy, the result will be huge different.

Yet its widely used by analysts, go figure.

All analysis is based off assumptions, whatever method you used. Research dictates how accurate you are/will be. Analysis is only as good as the time spend conducting it.

[Lease]

Yet its widely used by analysts, go figure.

All analysis is based off assumptions, whatever method you used. Research dictates how accurate you are/will be. Analysis is only as good as the time spend conducting it.

That's why I hardly look analysts valuation figure. I do read analyst reports from time to time but mainly after factual information as they have chance to meet management, conduct on site visit, etc.

DCF may be useful for companies which have stable earnings but in today's world I can barely see businesses have stable earnings.

[winner69]

That's why I hardly look analysts valuation figure. I do read analyst reports from time to time but mainly after factual information as they have chance to meet management, conduct on site visit, etc.

DCF may be useful for companies which have stable earnings but in today's world I can barely see businesses have stable earnings.

One thing with analyst valuations / targets is that invariably they are 15%-20% higher Han whatever eventuates

Must be a story in that somewhere

[NT001]

I was thinking last night we have to get ATM moving up, so I put in an order this morning for a healthy top-up at 69 cents and that seems to have done the trick. Damn.

[Master98]

I was thinking last night we have to get ATM moving up, so I put in an order this morning for a healthy top-up at 69 cents and that seems to have done the trick. Damn.

no worry, sellers keen to sell at 69c-70c.

[winner69]

I was thinking last night we have to get ATM moving up, so I put in an order this morning for a healthy top-up at 69 cents and that seems to have done the trick. Damn.

Well done - you'll probably do very well

[NT001]

Well done - you'll probably do very well

Except that I missed out. But still hopeful.

[Master98]

Milford now hold over 13.75%, can i say it is Milford manipulate ATM share price?

[MAC]

Milford now hold over 13.75%, can i say it is Milford manipulate ATM share price?

I think it's more just short term thinkers correlating with XRO because that’s the sort of thing they do. But that won't last and at the end of the day such events just create a transfer of wealth from the fickle to the patient.

Brian Gaynor and the team of analysts at Milford will have much better access and information on the forward efficacy of ATM than most, Geoff doesn’t reply my emails though.

[Jasemc]

Yes Milford will have done a huge amount of research to commit to this company so they must have seen something they fell in love with maybe the flavour?

[MAC]

ATM is now trading at 68c just as it was way back in October 2012, some 22 months ago;

Since October 2012 we have seen six new markets established;

- Entry into the UK & Ireland fresh milk market.
- The buyout of Muller Wiseman to become the 100% UK venture owner.
- Entry into the Western Australia fresh milk market.
- Entry into the China infant formula market.
- Sign up of the Pactum Group agreement for UHT production.
- Entry into the NZ and Australian infant formula market.

Since October 2012 there have been seven new products launched;

- A2 Light Milk
- A2 No Fat Milk
- A2 Platinum Infant Formula
- A2 Long Life Full Cream Milk
- A2 Long Life full Light Milk
- A2 Long Life Yoghourt
- A2 Cream

ATM have also advised of an intention to expand into the US market and that they have prepared an entry strategy, perhaps the biggest market of them all.

Specials don’t stay on the shelf for long, first in first served.

[iceman]

ATM is now trading at 68c just as it was way back in October 2012, some 22 months ago;

Since October 2012 we have seen six new markets established;

- Entry into the UK & Ireland fresh milk market.
- The buyout of Muller Wiseman to become the 100% UK venture owner.
- Entry into the Western Australia fresh milk market.
- Entry into the China infant formula market.
- Sign up of the Pactum Group agreement for UHT production.
- Entry into the NZ and Australian infant formula market.

Since October 2012 there have been seven new products launched;

- A2 Light Milk
- A2 No Fat Milk
- A2 Platinum Infant Formula
- A2 Long Life Full Cream Milk
- A2 Long Life full Light Milk
- A2 Long Life Yoghourt
- A2 Cream

ATM have also advised of an intention to expand into the US market and that they have prepared an entry strategy, perhaps the biggest market of them all.

Specials don’t stay on the shelf for long, first in first served.

Good post MAC and thanks for the reminders on why I have and continue to buy this company as a long term hold and fully expect S/P to continue its volatility for quite some time yet.

[Joshuatree]

I'm looking forward to buying; when the trend reaches the bend at the end.

[Master98]

I am tempted to buy at current price, but the selling pressure still quite huge, better to wait.

[Jasemc]

Should be helpful for ATM ?

[MAC]

Should be helpful for ATM ?

A2 retail prices in Australia have not altered in two years or so, during that time in NZ, and presumbably Australia, farm gate prices have risen, peaked, and are now dropping back.

Lower international commodity prices should over time lead to lower farm gate costs for ATM both here and across the ditch, thus greater overall gross margins, so yes it should be net positive for earnings.

[Jasemc]

And the falling dollar will help

[see weed]

Has anyone tasted A2? Went to Pak-n-Save today and could'nt find any.

[Joshuatree]

Countdown have it and it tastes fine.

[PennyPicker]

I've seen a couple of articles in the last week now like this; http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/innovations/wp/2014/07/16/man-made-cows-milk-may-soon-be-a-reality/. Man made milk seems to have many pros and few cons. Couple that with growing public sentiment towards dairy farming and environmental impact and it could get some real traction.

Any consideration on this? Still a few years away, but it seems like blow for cow produced milk.

PP.

[Tsuba]

I've seen a couple of articles in the last week now like this; http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/innovations/wp/2014/07/16/man-made-cows-milk-may-soon-be-a-reality/. Man made milk seems to have many pros and few cons. Couple that with growing public sentiment towards dairy farming and environmental impact and it could get some real traction.

Any consideration on this? Still a few years away, but it seems like blow for cow produced milk.

PP.


So what do they do with the real milk. Flush it down the drain or sell at a premium.

[blackcap]

Interesting and I hope good for ATM> Anecdotally off course. I went to my local Countdown today because I was out of milk. Previously they have only had one line of A2 on the shelf but to my surprise there were now 3 lines of A2 milk. This to me shows more demand for the product, or it is A2 doing more to get their product on the shelf. Good to see.

[NT001]

To see weed and Joshuatree

Almost all Countdowns nationwide seem to have A2 Milk. But maybe the processors (Ridge) are having trouble meeting demand, and I also know that in some cases the Countdown people who order supplies are simply not ordering enough. I've often found the A2 shelf is empty and I have to ask, whereupon someone goes out the back and gets some, which is not the way for them to build A2 sales. Our local Countdown, a medium sized one, orders just 2 dozen bottles a day. I've seen one New World that has A2, in Porirua I think, but usually Countdown is the place to go. NZ distribution merits a question at the next AGM, but the amounts being sold here are trivial compared with Australia, where ATM also has a bigger piece of the action.

[blackcap]

Milfie still averaging down, now have nearly 15%. Gaynor is KEEN.
hahaha you should watch your abbreviating. Milfie to me conjures up images and they do not take the form of a bearded middle age white male.

[Tsuba]

Milfie still averaging down, now have nearly 15%. Gaynor is KEEN.

So Moosie. Since you're in doom mode these days is that a good thing or a bad thing ?

[axe]

Milfie still averaging down, now have nearly 15%. Gaynor is KEEN.

What will happen to SP if Gaynor loses his appetite?

[Tsuba]

What will happen to SP if Gaynor loses his appetite?

The no mind of their own lemmings and sheep will panic. ;)

[MAC]

Yep, “For brands companies (i.e. Fonterra’s brands business and A2 Milk), margins tend to improve as the cost of dairy ingredients decrease, also implying a positive auction last night”.

http://www.harbourasset.co.nz/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/Harbour-Navigator-Lower-dairy-prices-possible-impacts-updated.pdf

[Bobcat.]

I'm getting more interested technically in this stock. Now that it's broken historical support at 65c, the next support level is 60c, which is where I'm thinking of placing a bid.

But then I checked a few fundamentals. ANZ Securities states the following:

MC = $422m
eps = only 0.16c !
p/e = a whopping 400 !
nta = only 7c
Reuters recommends only a hold.

Something doesn't look right. If these figures are true, there's a lot of growth potential factored into its price. Milford and NZ Super seem to think so (recent announcements at 13.8% uplifted to 14.8% and from 5% to 6% respectively).

Insights welcome.

[Bobcat.]

Thanks MAC. I've dug out some info from their HY Feb report, which by the way is the time from which their sp started falling:

Strategic Agenda

"The FY13 strategic agenda centred on the increasing profits from the Australian business funding revenue growth in the priority markets of the United Kingdom and China. To the extent revenue growth in the UK is tracking behind plan, this is offset by enhanced performance in Australia and additional product and market opportunities being pursued."

o EBITDA before share of associate earnings of $2,576,000 compared to the prior corresponding period of $3,459,000;

A second shipment of infant formula to China took place in November 2013 following a first shipment in June 2013.

Cash on hand at 31 December 2013 was $13,156,000.

Has anybody got any update on:
a) what "additional product and market opportunities [are] being pursued"? or
b) sales into Australia? or
c) shipments into China? or
d) cash on hand.

FY Report is due in a month.

Cheers,

BC

Edit: I've found this from a 28 April announcement to help answer my question c):
"a2MC Managing Director Geoffrey Babidge says "the requirements of the [China] registration process are consistent with our expectations. We have been working closely with Synlait Milk in anticipation of potential changes and will continue to do so to build the Company's position in this market."

https://www.anzsecurities.co.nz/DirectTrade/dynamic/announcement.aspx?id=3598635

Getting registered and doors open into China may be what's required to turn around this stock's downward momentum.

[Bobcat.]

Thanks MAC (yes, I did see your earlier post but it was labelled "since Oct 2012" and I thought it could perhaps be products released pre-Feb's HY Report).

Given that people will continue to buy ATM's products (be it fresh milk, long-life milk, infant formula or cream) in a recession or market downturn, I figure that this is probably a good enough defensive stock, although I would like to see a better p/e before investing much.

A bid at 60c with a stop loss at 58c I think will do for now.

Cheers,

BC

[Joshuatree]

Yeah feels like somethings gotta give sometime soon, when the seller/s has emptied out .Looking a little tensioned like a Jack- (or a Gaynor or an Udder)-In-A-Box about to spring out and sock the 200DMA.

[Joshuatree]

AMP had re 51.4 million shares after last selldown announcement. Will we get another announcement soon re another 1% or more and will Milford keep hoovering them up Anyone got a few recent Top 20 Holders?

[GTM 3442]

FWIW, there are some who see potential in China

http://chinawatch.washingtonpost.com/2014/07/china-to-get-new-dairy-hub.php

[Joshuatree]

Maybe I've added up wrong but i get 40.4 mill shares sold since AMP's last announcement.

[Master98]

Whats up? end with 61c today, where is the support? 50c

[bull....]

still no registration for synliat and 3 mths gone by which is no good for a2 - i like 50c which is around 50% retracement from highs

[K1W1G0LD]

ATM make niche products ie. they're too expensive for most people, who don't need to use them because they're not lactose intolerant and most of the worlds population can barely afford milk products anyway ie.most of Africa.
If ATM want true economies of scale they're going to need their own production plants not licensing agreements. I'd be asking myself if these are such GOOD products why is the shareprice experiencing such an extended slump.

[barleeni]

ATM make niche products ie. they're too expensive for most people, who don't need to use them because they're not lactose intolerant and most of the worlds population can barely afford milk products anyway ie.most of Africa.
If ATM want true economies of scale they're going to need their own production plants not licensing agreements. I'd be asking myself if these are such GOOD products why is the shareprice experiencing such an extended slump.

Just an observation, maybe it was a one-off - not really sure but we bought 2 liters of A2 for $4.40 on the weekend (first time we'd ever seen it).

That's cheaper than most every other bottle of 2L on the shelves (Countdown Napier).

Haven't tried it yet, so no verdict..... but it is the first time i've seen it at that Supermarket which is progress I guess!

[winner69]

Whats up? end with 61c today, where is the support? 50c

Just as well the ATM is petty cash for Milford

[see weed]

Just an observation, maybe it was a one-off - not really sure but we bought 2 liters of A2 for $4.40 on the weekend (first time we'd ever seen it).

That's cheaper than most every other bottle of 2L on the shelves (Countdown Napier).

Haven't tried it yet, so no verdict..... but it is the first time i've seen it at that Supermarket which is progress I guess!

I bought my first 2L bottle the other day from Count Down Sylvia Park . Tastes good , but could'nt find it on the shelf, the shop girl had never heard of it. As I was leaving the store, the shop assistant came running out into the car park yelling...hey mr. you hoo , we find some in back of shop. How much, ...$4.90... ok, I'll have one bottle. I have it on my porridge in the morning , very nice, and will be on the weekly shopping list from today on, now that I have shares with them . So come on everybody, lets start drinking ..Yee Haa :t_up:

[see weed]

personally I would not like to be holding if Synlait have another Chinese certification hold up.

Sounds a bit like FPA a couple of years ago, making Share holders wait for the go ahead to launch into the 30,000 outlets in China. And after many months of waiting Haier decides there will be too much profit and dividends to pay out to the Kiwi share holders, so we better buy this icon NZ company before that happens .:(

[bull....]

milford have 15% so I dont think anyone will be taking over this company unless they offer something to good to resist

[nextbigthing]

personally I would not like to be holding if Synlait have another Chinese certification hold up.

Schnapiti,

My understanding is certification was really about controlling the product so the Chinese knew exactly what was in it. Given Synlait control everything from selecting/contracting farmers through to production* then certification is very very likely at some stage.

Therefore if the shareprice is being hammered because of an event that's not going to eventuate (missing certification) yet the fundamentals and growth are otherwise great (IMHO they are) then isn't this a perfect time to pull the cheque book out and buy up large (as Milford have been doing). My understanding of Buffet was this was exactly the scenario he dreamed of - a great company bring irrationally discounted.

Disc - ATM bull.

*that's my understanding, correct me if I'm wrong

[winner69]

milford have 15% so I dont think anyone will be taking over this company unless they offer something to good to resist

Maybe that's the reason Milford taking an interest .... a takeover sooner than later

[waikare]

a2 Platinum infant formula achieves regulatory approval from China

The a2 Milk Company Limited (a2MC) is pleased to advise it has achieved approval from regulatory agencies in China to resume shipments of high quality a2 Platinum infant formula.

We might see the SP head north

[Joshuatree]

Thanks waikare. Good news at last .Watching closely for an entry.

[Joshuatree]

Regulatory approval from China received (https://www.nzx.com/companies/ATM/announcements/252930)

Synlait still waiting

[zigzag]

Regulatory approval from China received (https://www.nzx.com/companies/ATM/announcements/252930)

Synlait still waiting

I'm sure that with Synlait, it is a matter of when, not if.

[bull....]

timely announcement, will jump and relieve oversold condition of share price but 66 - 67 looks like resistance now so might get a 10% jump a which only those who brought yesterday can enjoy lol

[Tsuba]

I am a bit confused how can ATM receive certification prior to Synlait as synlait provides ATM production.
I expect an announcement from Synlait this morning.

Schnapster. You are always confused. ;)

[barleeni]

Check out the current depth chart!

6040

[rbel038]

Anyone notice that the chinese owned newmilk company got its registration first :D

[MAC]

What an absolute storm in a tea cup and distraction that was, ah well, if short term thinkers needed a reason for a dip I guess that was as random as any.

Difficulty now though with Milford and probably others having picked up some quite nice bundles, the stock is more illiquid than it was.

Even at last year’s reporting the top 26 shareholders had 86%, probably more now, and we didn’t see any downward SSH’s. Find out in around five weeks I guess.

For all of you who sold, well there aren’t now as many shares to go around, hope you don’t miss out.

[enzed staffy]

Short lived glory.....

[Bobcat.]

Well, I'm now an ATM stockholder, in at 65c, anticipating a decent financial result to be reported next month.

Hope springs eternal.

[Master98]

I am in at 65c as well, finger cross

[fiasco]

Well, I'm now an ATM stockholder, in at 65c, anticipating a decent financial result to be reported next month.

Hope springs eternal.

Likewise, was waiting for this announcement before making a move.

[Tsuba]

well said Mac .......crickey we finally agree on something:)

We should all drink to that. :blink:

[Joshuatree]

M.NZ

The a2 Milk Company Limited













Rank





Cur: 21-Jul-2014


Prev: 05-Jul-2014


Difference







Cur


Prv


Shareholders


Shares


Held(%)


Shares


Held(%)


Shares


Simple(%)


Relative(%)





1

1

NEW ZEALAND CENTRAL SECURITIES DEPOSITORY LIMITED

309779306

48.9331

307143293

48.5167

2636013

0.4164

0.8582






2

2

FREEDOM FOODS GROUP LIMITED

116936129

18.4714

116936129

18.4714

0

0

0






3

3

MOUNTAIN ROAD INVESTMENTS LIMITED

57558701

9.092

57558701

9.092

0

0

0






4

4

ULRIKE MCLACHLAN

7135163

1.1271

7135163

1.1271

0

0

0






5

5

JBWERE (NZ) NOMINEES LIMITED

5865962

0.9266

5865962

0.9266

0

0

0






6

6

DAVID MAIR

5000000

0.7898

5000000

0.7898

0

0

0






7

7

GREGORY HINTON & ROSSLYN HINTON

5000000

0.7898

5000000

0.7898

0

0

0






8

8

SUPERLIFE TRUSTEE NOMINEES LIMITED

4571641

0.7221

4571641

0.7221

0

0

0






9

10

FORSYTH BARR CUSTODIANS LIMITED

4065190

0.6421

4144690

0.6547

-79500

-0.0126

-1.9181






10

11

TP TRUSTEE BENDEMEER LIMITED

4000000

0.6318

4000000

0.6318

0

0

0






11

12

CUSTODIAL SERVICES LIMITED

3621494

0.5721

3611494

0.5705

10000

0.0016

0.2769






12

13

GREGORY HINTON

3000000

0.4739

3000000

0.4739

0

0

0






13

9

HOLEM PTY LIMITED

2750000

0.4344

4502808

0.7113

-1752808

-0.2769

-38.927






14

15

NEW ZEALAND DEPOSITORY NOMINEE LIMITED

2392136

0.3779

2519815

0.398

-127679

-0.0202

-5.067






15

16

FNZ CUSTODIANS LIMITED

2227083

0.3518

2309972

0.3649

-82889

-0.0131

-3.5883






16

17

PETER HINTON

2193064

0.3464

2193064

0.3464

0

0

0






17

18

INVESTMENT CUSTODIAL SERVICES LIMITED

2098949

0.3316

2109377

0.3332

-10428

-0.0016

-0.4944






18

19

RESOLUTION INVESTMENTS LIMITED

1710000

0.2701

1710000

0.2701

0

0

0






19

20

LEVERAGED EQUITIES FINANCE LIMITED

1659561

0.2621

1682061

0.2657

-22500

-0.0036

-1.3376






20

22

MARINT LIMITED

1500000

0.2369

1500000

0.2369

0

0

0






21

21

FORSYTH BARR CUSTODIANS LIMITED

1480616

0.2339

1525116

0.2409

-44500

-0.007

-2.9178






22

14

FIRST NZ CAPITAL SECURITIES LIMITED

1400324

0.2212

2605290

0.4115

-1204966

-0.1903

-46.2507






23

23

CIRCADA LIMITED

1400000

0.2211

1400000

0.2211

0

0

0






24

24

PHABEN HOLDINGS LIMITED

1200000

0.1896

1200000

0.1896

0

0

0






25

25

FORSYTH BARR CUSTODIANS LIMITED

1166800

0.1843

1186800

0.1875

-20000

-0.0032

-1.6852






26

27

ROTORUATRUST PERPETUAL CAPITAL FUND LIMITED

1000000

0.158

1000000

0.158

0

0

0






27

26

FORSYTH BARR CUSTO

[Master98]

topped up yesterdays purchase(actually 3 x more) today @ 65.
still seems to be a seller in the market

bought today, not as luck as you grabbed 61c yesterday;)

[Master98]

Dairy auction upcoming August 5th, see if she shows signs of bottoming yet or not...
A2 main products are fresh milk and baby milk powder, do you think dairy auction result will much affect their business?

[MAC]

A2 main products are fresh milk and baby milk powder, do you think dairy auction result will much affect their business?

http://www.harbourasset.co.nz/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/Harbour-Navigator-Lower-dairy-prices-possible-impacts-updated.pdf

[Joshuatree]

thanks JT... nothing on there that would indicate why the share price has been so weak....
so purely down too the china issue and fall in share price having retail investors acting like sheep again.

Yeah weird ; maybe someone has been doing some big SHORTING?

[goldfish]

I am a bit confused how can ATM receive certification prior to Synlait as synlait provides ATM production.
I expect an announcement from Synlait this morning.

This...why hasnt synlait got certification at same time? they make the a2 stuff i thought.

[NT001]

Synlait make the platinum formula. At this stage that's not ATM's major source of revenue, which at present is the bottled milk in Australia.

ATM's platinum formula will be competing with other infant powders in China, so although it's great that it has Chinese registration, that doesn't mean an instant profit boom for ATM. The Chinese public will have to learn why they should pay more for ATM platinum.

And platinum also has other markets that don't rely on Chinese approval. The places to watch, IMO, are UK, Europe, Korea and USA as well as Australia. I think far too much attention is being paid to the Synlait connection by speculators. As a long term substantial holder (AWPP 11 cents) I just can't see why the ATM SP has been moving around so much. Irrational.

[JohnnyTheHorse]

Looking good for a continuation of todays action tomorrow if the US market doesn't throw any curve balls overnight. I'd be picking it to touch 70 and close around 68, but we shall see.

Disc: trading it.

[see weed]

topped up yesterdays purchase(actually 3 x more) today @ 65.
still seems to be a seller in the market

Welcome aboard. Same as you, I felt that each parcel I bought, it was replaced straight away by another parcel of 30 to 100 thousand. So somebody it seems is drip feeding their large holding into the market. It really made me feel like a duck. No worries , we will see how the milk run goes tomorrow.

[Master98]

someone is feeding the sell side 1.2 m traded before lunch and the price has barely moved.
maybe JT trading it;)

[goldfish]

I bought in yesterday to, but with the big sellers capping everything i wonder if i moved to soon, time will tell.

[Bobcat.]

Higher volume today at over 3.2m by only 1.40 pm (the highest for over a month). High volume often, but not always, signals a pivot and momentum swing.

It's still a long time before we get to the November AGM -- I suspect some more good news is required before we see a turnaround to this present downward momentum.

Discl: holding.

[Jasemc]

You might expect that with high dollar and a stall in china that results might be lower than hoped but this might be offset by improvement in uk and an announcement about USA. How they structure us will also be a factor.

[Bobcat.]

AUD currency has been strengthened by today's trimmed mean CPI figure of 3% (upper end of target). Copper, Iron Ore, Uranium and other resource are showing signs of a recovery. European money pouring into Australia since the ECB dropped interest rates last month, and associated housing demand makes it almost certain IMO that their RB will raise rates next time around.

Therefore I would be surprised if the Kiwi strengthened much more against the Aussie dollar...well, not for long anyhow.

[ratkin]

Im out today at 65c
have been feeling uncomfortable with these for some time (should of sold earlier)
nothing wrong with the product , but would rather have my money in something less speculative

[Master98]

Im out today at 65c
have been feeling uncomfortable with these for some time (should of sold earlier)
nothing wrong with the product , but would rather have my money in something less speculative

high growth stock always come with high risk, if you uncomfortable with it then not should to touch it.

[ratkin]

high growth stock always come with high risk, if you uncomfortable with it then not should to touch it.

Made 20 percent profit on it. The love affair with all things milk is ending.

[NT001]

Has anyone thanked JoshuaTree for putting up the list of major holders? I certainly want to. Thanks JT.

But can anyone ungarble for me who these outfits actually are?

[waikare]

Im out today at 65c
have been feeling uncomfortable with these for some time (should of sold earlier)
nothing wrong with the product , but would rather have my money in something less speculative

Ratkin I don’t thing ATM can still be regarded as speculative stock, yes it was a couple of years back, was when I brought in at 22 cents Sept. 2011. But no longer, their products are produced and sold in several countries. Joshuatree list (post 1374) of the top 20 shareholders, shows there are a number of well-respected investors amongst them.

Thanks very much Joshuatree for the comprehensive list.

[goldfish]

AND...we are back in the downtrend by the looks of it :( very thin buy side and lots sellers with big bundles.
sold what i bought the other day, was really hopeing that announcement would change the trend but I dont think so, better to be out for me then watch it drop, at least im making my broker happy.

[goldfish]

Hence why I posted 2 days ago to wait for a lower price if you were on the sidelines! No use rushing in when there's a massive seller out there. NZD finally dropping like a stone so ATM will eventually benefit.

I have been waiting on the sidelines for months now, I thought that announcement would change the trend, it was worth the risk only lost a few dollars and brokers fees...

edit:still sucks though

[Bobcat.]

I bought on the day of the announcement re China rego, and then sold out this morning after seeing it trade flat for the third day. More downside it would seem and will sleep better not owning this stock until it once again starts to establish an upward trendline...which is not this week.

[see weed]

I have been waiting on the sidelines for months now, I thought that announcement would change the trend, it was worth the risk only lost a few dollars and brokers fees...

edit:still sucks though

Same here, only down $1400 but will wait for bottom then buy another 100k :)

[JohnnyTheHorse]

Agreed. Got out for a small profit, so all is well.

[Master98]

It seems most sellers today are those who expected sp sparking from china reg.announcement. I want to see this year final report before take any action.

Disc. HOLD

[JohnnyTheHorse]

So all you traders who sold today, firstly, there was bugger all, can I say bugger, volume today and thus I hadn’t realised what small amounts you guys actually trade, explains a lot to me.

I’m just a humble FA, but with XRO breaking it’s down trend today and PEB bouncing off that multiyear line thing, why would you not anticipate that ATM is also done, weren’t they all hand cuffed together is some great short term sub cognitive binding traders muddling logic thing ?

Why should the amount that someone trades matter? It's all relative to each person. It's like you're trying to claim that your d**k is bigger than everyone else's - get a life mate.

You seem to have something against traders. Maybe you are blaming them for losses that you have incurred in recent times? Everyone has their own way, and just because it's different to yours doesn't make it wrong. If you're a FA and in it for the long term then noise created by traders shouldn't be an issue.

[nextbigthing]

IMHO when the seller is done this is going to go bananas. Maybe, just maybe, now IS the time to be stocking up as when they're finished it might be hard to get a decent amount at anywhere near these prices. Sure you might lose 10 cents as it keeps sliding but you might save 20 cents over what you'd have to buy in at on the way up. Maybe.

Disc) Prime ATM breeding bull with a whole forum of cows to get through

[Joshuatree]

With over 40 million shares since AMP's May announcement it doesn't look like any of the big holders are selling down big.

In the time frame for this top 100(i posted just top 27 )the total vol of shares has dropped by measly 0.1%. So its not a big holder bailing out but small ones. Bearish retail investors that don't read share trader?:mellow:






M.NZ
The a2 Milk Company Limited










Rank





Cur: 21-Jul-2014




Prev: 05-Jul-2014




Difference







Cur




Prv




Shareholders




Shares




Held(%)




Shares




Held(%)




Shares




Simple(%)




Relative(%)





1
1
NEW ZEALAND CENTRAL SECURITIES DEPOSITORY LIMITED
309779306
48.9331
307143293
48.5167
2636013
0.4164
0.8582



2
2
FREEDOM FOODS GROUP LIMITED
116936129
18.4714
116936129
18.4714
0
0
0



3
3
MOUNTAIN ROAD INVESTMENTS LIMITED
57558701
9.092
57558701
9.092
0
0
0



4
4
ULRIKE MCLACHLAN
7135163
1.1271
7135163
1.1271
0
0
0



5
5
JBWERE (NZ) NOMINEES LIMITED
5865962
0.9266
5865962
0.9266
0
0
0



6
6
DAVID MAIR
5000000
0.7898
5000000
0.7898
0
0
0



7
7
GREGORY HINTON & ROSSLYN HINTON
5000000
0.7898
5000000
0.7898
0
0
0



8
8
SUPERLIFE TRUSTEE NOMINEES LIMITED
4571641
0.7221
4571641
0.7221
0
0
0



9
10
FORSYTH BARR CUSTODIANS LIMITED
4065190
0.6421
4144690
0.6547
-79500
-0.0126
-1.9181



10
11
TP TRUSTEE BENDEMEER LIMITED
4000000
0.6318
4000000
0.6318
0
0
0



11
12
CUSTODIAL SERVICES LIMITED
3621494
0.5721
3611494
0.5705
10000
0.0016
0.2769



12
13
GREGORY HINTON
3000000
0.4739
3000000
0.4739
0
0
0



13
9
HOLEM PTY LIMITED
2750000
0.4344
4502808
0.7113
-1752808
-0.2769
-38.927



14
15
NEW ZEALAND DEPOSITORY NOMINEE LIMITED
2392136
0.3779
2519815
0.398
-127679
-0.0202
-5.067



15
16
FNZ CUSTODIANS LIMITED
2227083
0.3518
2309972
0.3649
-82889
-0.0131
-3.5883



16
17
PETER HINTON
2193064
0.3464
2193064
0.3464
0
0
0



17
18
INVESTMENT CUSTODIAL SERVICES LIMITED
2098949
0.3316
2109377
0.3332
-10428
-0.0016
-0.4944



18
19
RESOLUTION INVESTMENTS LIMITED
1710000
0.2701
1710000
0.2701
0
0
0



19
20
LEVERAGED EQUITIES FINANCE LIMITED
1659561
0.2621
1682061
0.2657
-22500
-0.0036
-1.3376



20
22
MARINT LIMITED
1500000
0.2369
1500000
0.2369
0
0
0



21
21
FORSYTH BARR CUSTODIANS LIMITED
1480616
0.2339
1525116
0.2409
-44500
-0.007
-2.9178



22
14
FIRST NZ CAPITAL SECURITIES LIMITED
1400324
0.2212
2605290
0.4115
-1204966
-0.1903
-46.2507



23
23
CIRCADA LIMITED
1400000
0.2211
1400000
0.2211
0
0
0



24
24
PHABEN HOLDINGS LIMITED
1200000
0.1896
1200000
0.1896
0
0
0



25
25
FORSYTH BARR CUSTODIANS LIMITED
1166800
0.1843
1186800
0.1875
-20000
-0.0032
-1.6852



26
27
ROTORUATRUST PERPETUAL CAPITAL FUND LIMITED
1000000
0.158
1000000
0.158
0
0
0



27
26
FORSYTH BARR CUSTO

[Joshuatree]

Top 100 shareholders total 577,724,191 shares
Total ATM shares 660,666, 979 share
The 100thshareholder holds 188,550
There has been only a tiny movement from 27 to 100 ;negligible.

[Joshuatree]

Yeah it doesn't stack up hence my thought has some one borrowed x amount of shares and is shorting them; artificially creating a down trend and at some stage will giviethe shares back and pocket the diff. Can shorting be done / is it allowed on the NZX?

[nextbigthing]

but I warn you I am pretty quick....(wife will confirm this)

I'm not sure you should be bragging about 'how fast you are' and that your wife will attest to this Snapiti. It's not a race buddy......

;)

[nextbigthing]

I'll send my replies to the above to the after market lounge to avoid clogging the thread, see you at the bar.

[goldfish]

We are all in it to make money, why would i buy and hold into a downtrend, the only thing im going to do there is loose money.
Id rather loose a small amount and protect my capital.
Sure id love to buy in a atm at 65 and have it go up to 100+ in a year or so but until the trend changes its not going to happen.

[NT001]

I haven't been around for long enough on this thread to be lecturing some of the old hands, but:

Why do some of our members just keep trying to score points against each other in a most personalised, negative and degrading way all the time? Where does it get them and us?

Nowhere.

When one member scores an insulting shot off another, it may give the scorer a hot feeling of satisfaction, but frankly he/she goes down in almost everyone else's estimation.

I know it's been suggested before, but let's just grow up. God, it takes bloody hours to read through this thread for just a few gems of knowledge and constructive thought. Let's just talk to each other in a civil way.

Somebody just said "we're all in it to make money". Yeah! In my case probably not for me but for my grandkids' education. I'm not a trader but I do recognise traders have their place in the market. I'm also not a TA, not because I think it's rubbish, but it just isn't my approach. We're all here for different reasons, with different areas of speciality. So let it be.

Over on PEB there's an honest attempt by a lot of contributors to add real fundamental knowedge to the equation. Some actually know what they're talking about, and it's great, although there's a fair bit of point-scoring there as well. Here, I feel real knowledge is hard to come by, mainly personal sniping. It won't change my strategy, but it infuriates me.

I once started up a tech company myself, with venture capital from a major financial institution, whose eminent boss said he expected only one in five new venture startups to reach a profit-making stage, but that would justify its losses on the other four. Mine wasn't a winner because some of my fellow directors milked it dry before it got there, but I got out with my capital intact.

But I learnt a lot from that experience, and the reason I'm an ATM holder is that several years ago I decided to risk a portion of my capital on three new tech companies, simply because I believed in doing so as a contribution to NZ Inc. They were ATM, BLT and BotryZen (forgotten its code now). Well ATM has turned up trumps, the other two didn't. So that's why I'm in ATM, but frankly it doesn't bother me why anyone else is (unless it's Fonterra or someone trying to bugger things up). I'm in the top whatever but I'm not selling, in fact I'm topping up. But in the process I've come to believe in the company and feel proud of its product.

I think the present management is brilliant, and so is the product. But if others think differently, I'm always interested in their thoughts - but not the snarkiness. OK I've said enough.

[Master98]

The A2 war in oz still goes on.

Jumping on A2 bandwagonhttp://adf.farmonline.com.au/news/magazine/industry-news/general/jumping-on-a2-bandwagon/2706493.aspx?storypage=1

[NT001]

That story purporting to investigate where the truth lies regarding A2 Milk is just so full of incorrect and misleading information as to be a total travesty of journalism. I often respond to articles that contain incorrect info, but this one is just so full of BS I wouldn't know where to start. I think someone from the mainstream industry (probably Dairy Australia or one of A2's competitors) has taken the writer concerned out to a pretty good lunch.

For a start, of course, if parents are actually reporting good results from A2 milk on autistic kids, they don't have to be medical experts to notice the difference, so their observations should not be dismissed as non-expert. And it's blatantly misleading to suggest that the A2 site doesn't give references for any of the research papers supporting the A1-A2 hypothesis - what it does, and makes it real easy, is provide a "click on" for a reputable external site that carries vast amounts of detail for anyone interested.

I could go on, but like M98 says, it's a war, and all's fair as they say. I'm not sure how widely this article was published. It originated in a regional newspaper.

[JohnnyTheHorse]

Agree that the article contained some pretty inaccurate information. The evidence in a2's favour is still pretty sketchy though. Researchers in the area that I have personally talked to completely dismiss it. Placebo effect is a wonderful thing though, so even if a2 is no different it doesn't mean ATM can't be a large successful company.

[Joshuatree]

Thats right a while back i couldn't find scientific "proof" that it works and ignored the stock. Much later and the people have decided it does and A2's mkts are increasing and vol is growing;so I'm now waiting for the bend at the end of this shorted trend.

[goldfish]

For a start, of course, if parents are actually reporting good results from A2 milk on autistic kids, they don't have to be medical experts to notice the difference, so their observations should not be dismissed as non-expert.
Observer bias.

[Joshuatree]

Whatever.... it doesn't matter.

[psychic]

And they were force feeding us that bloody awful marg telling us butter would kill us. Even the bloody flies knew not to touch that stuff.

http://time.com/2863227/ending-the-war-on-fat/

[JohnnyTheHorse]

Once upon a time the entire diet, food and healthcare industry rubbished Dr Atkins for suggesting that carbohydrates make you fat. Look how that turned out.

That statement is oversimplified and misleading.

[ziggy415]

And they were force feeding us that bloody awful marg telling us butter would kill us. Even the bloody flies knew not to touch that stuff.

http://time.com/2863227/ending-the-war-on-fat/
not only marg...i see they are able to make milk now..(not from cows)....If A2 is false why do other manufactureres advertise "contains A2 ".......discrediting opposition products says to me they are worried

[MAC]

We shouldn’t forget also that it’s not ATM’s ambition to replace A1 milk, there will be an optimal market share whereby they can maintain a 50% retail price point premium as a product within the “premium milk market”, without competing directly with A1 retailers on margins.

What I think we have seen this year in Australia, with an 8% market share, is the A1 main stream retailers just starting to take some notice as their bottom lines may have been dinged by a percent or two within an overall shrinking market.

Just a gut feel view, I’m picking a levelling off at an optimal point at about 12 to 15% in Australia, in a couple of years from now.

UK’s next, much bigger market, ATM’s goal is to achieve a 1.8% market share by 2016, and a quick google suggests it’s got some good support already. US market after that.

Onward and forward, the more debate the better.

[bull....]

resistance which i mentioned in a earlier post has well and truly held, which means we are headed lower. 50c anyone?

[nextbigthing]

Huge sell volumes still there. Someone driving the price down for a take-over?

[NT001]

I agree with you on this JTH, a2 has some mainstream momentum behind it as a product at the moment, and with the uncertain (at best) scientific situation perception is reality. But I do think a2 growth potential will be limited if the health claims turn out to be false. I can also see their price premium eroding over time. My reading of it is that the mainstream scientific community remains entirely unconvinced of any health benefit.

It's true that to a large extent perception is reality, but the reality is changing. There is more and more science supporting the A2 hypothesis, as reported in peer-reviewed research papers all around the world, and so-called experts who rubbish it in casual conversations either haven't read it or just don't want to believe it for some non-scientific reason.

I go back to the point I've made previously, that despite the enormous research resources available to the mainstream dairy industry globally, which would love to demolish the A2 hypothesis, there has been NO credible scientific research paper disproving it or even seriously undermining it. The science is all heading in one direction, albeit gradually and carefully, corroborating the risks of A1 and the benefits, therefore, of drinking A2. The food safety authorities are not denying it, they're simply saying they are not yet accepting it as fully proven, which is basically a copout.

Back in its early days, A2Corp got into a spot of bother because one of its suppliers over-hyped the claims for A2, but A2M itself has been very careful not to overstate where the science is at. So its health claims will not turn out to be false. As for the anecdotal reports by people with autistic kids, and people who find they can drink A2 milk but not mainstream milk, these were consumer discoveries, not claims made by ATM. Even so, recent research stimulated by such reports has started coming up with good data, both theoretical and clinical, that helps explain these observed phenomena, and it hasn't been refuted. It's a lot more than observer bias, placebo effect etc.

[westcoaster]

I have always loved the David and Goliath story behind ATM and have dreamed of the day that A2 is regarded as normal, and A1 is the cheap distant cousin. The IP and Licensing could be worth potentially more than the milk produced, until all herds have been tested that is.
Ivano De Noni was part of the original EFSA review team that concluded there was no evidence the BCM7 could get through to the blood.
He has since published two papers showing BCM7 was released into the intestines from not only "normal" milk but all dairy products containing A1 beta casein, such as cheese, yoghurt and infant formula.
Easy to search and find this info in public records, too large to include here.
I feel sure a takeover is on the cards soon as IMHO its the only was to ensure the worlds A1 milk can be disguised. :(

[NT001]

I feel sure a takeover is on the cards soon as IMHO its the only was to ensure the worlds A1 milk can be disguised.

I'm afraid you may be right, WC, and this could explain why someone is driving the SP down. But the question remains, who is behind it? Is the potential acquirer a "good guy" just trying to cash in on the huge returns that lie ahead, through either a full or partial takeover offer? Or is it, as you suggest, an attempt by interests who feel threatened by A2 and want to shut down the debate. Potentially there are huge global dairy issues at stake here.

That's why I would really like to know more about some of the big holders shown on the table of major shareholders who have uninformative corporate names, and why I think we need to watch any changes in their holdings very carefully.

[couta1]

I'm uneducated in the outcome of takeovers,what would that mean for current holders particularly for those of us that paid a lot more than the current share price?

[Master98]

I'm uneducated in the outcome of takeovers,what would that mean for current holders particularly for those of us that paid a lot more than the current share price?
takeover is one price for all share holders regardless of what price you paid before.

[couta1]

takeover is one price for all share holders regardless of what price you paid before.
Thanks for that, so how do they work out that one price for all?

[Jasemc]

I presume the directors advise shareholders if the offer is fair. I wouldn't be to sure of a takeover yet. Price reflects no recent news about sales or new opportunities.

[Master98]

Thanks for that, so how do they work out that one price for all?

they will value the company, then give a takeover price, for example $1.0 per share:)

[couta1]

they will value the company, then give a takeover price, for example $1.0 per share:)
Cheers, I like your $1 example:cool:

[westcoaster]

Shareholders get to vote as to whether the offer price is acceptable, $5 each is what I'll be holding out for:)
Much cheaper than herd conversion on a global scale.

[nextbigthing]

wishful thinking for a takeover.......

What makes you say that Snap? Why not?

[Master98]

I think ATM current share trading condition mostly linked to oz A2 war which big milk brand owners smash ATM share price could for takeover or just want to damage share price so ATM will difficult to get funding?

[NT001]

Does NZX have powers to investigate short selling as described by Snapiti and Moosie, or a suspicion of it? Is it in any way a violation of trading rules? Might NZX ask a questionabout recent SP falls and trading patterns? It does look like a good explanation for what's been happening in a pretty illiquid market with mostly a few small traders apart from the odd big purchase by Milford, who probably wouldn't mind too much. Could it even be Milford? Presumably it could only be detected by NZX getting access to brokers' transactions, and maybe it could be fairly well disguised even then.

[NT001]

Does NZX have powers to investigate the kind of SP manipulation suggested by Snapiti and Moosie? Is it in any way a violation of trading rules? It does seem like a very plausible explanation for what's been happening in a relatively illiquid market apparently populated mainly by small traders (apart from Milford), given that the only new announcement recently has been a positive one (Chinese infant formula approval).

Might NZX ask a question of ATM to get things started? Could it even be Milford? I guess the only way to determine if there has been repetitive buying and selling to push the price down, incurring a relatively modest temporary loss, would be for NZX to get access to brokers' transaction records, and even then it could no doubt be heavily disguised. Any ideas?

[see weed]

Does NZX have powers to investigate the kind of SP manipulation suggested by Snapiti and Moosie? Is it in any way a violation of trading rules? It does seem like a very plausible explanation for what's been happening in a relatively illiquid market apparently populated mainly by small traders (apart from Milford), given that the only new announcement recently has been a positive one (Chinese infant formula approval).

Might NZX ask a question of ATM to get things started? Could it even be Milford? I guess the only way to determine if there has been repetitive buying and selling to push the price down, incurring a relatively modest temporary loss, would be for NZX to get access to brokers' transaction records, and even then it could no doubt be heavily disguised. Any ideas?

If the price keeps going down it will make it too tempting for other big institutions to get in. ie. Milford could buy another 10,000,000. And if big holders already have 86% of ATM then that only leaves 82,409,377 left for us little holders. So my plan is to top up here and there to the bottom, Just like AIR a couple of years ago , it might work, who knows.

[nextbigthing]

If the price keeps going down it will make it too tempting for other big institutions to get in. ie. Milford could buy another 10,000,000. And if big holders already have 86% of ATM then that only leaves 82,409,377 left for us little holders. So my plan is to top up here and there to the bottom, Just like AIR a couple of years ago , it might work, who knows.

This is exactly my point from earlier. Top up now. Sure you might lose 10 cents on paper in the very near future when it keeps sliding. But good luck trying to get any decent volume of shares when it finally turns, there will be very little on offer and you will end up having to pay a very big premium to today's price costing you far more than the 10 cents you're losing on paper. IMHO.

[Fuzzy Dunlop]

As a new member, I apologise if this has already been discussed. Some of you may be interested to know that the campaign against A2 milk in Australia appears to not only be sustained, but also increasing in scale with regular, and crafty, television commercials appearing this week in regard to the 'naturally occurring' presence of the A2 protein in Dairy Farmers' milk. Worryingly, from talking to friends and colleagues, some of which use A2 milk exclusively, it appears that many are unaware that it is the absence of the A1 protein, rather than the presence of the A2 protein, that differentiates ATM's products.

[NT001]

You're absolutely right, Fuzzy. The company has long had a policy of emphasising the "benefits" of the A2 protein rather than emphasising the essential point that A1 is a risk factor ("The Devil in Milk" as Keith Woodford's book calls it) and needs to be excluded from milk. This appears to be because ATM doesn't want to scare people totally off drinking standard milk which contains both proteins, and has wanted to avoid buying a head-on confrontation with the mainstream industry. It's important to remember that the people who process and distribute A2 milk in NZ, Australia and the UK also handle standard milk containing A1, and would take offence mightily if ATM in effect described their other product lines as dangerous.

Having some PR experience I mentioned to the company some time back that its policy would eventually come back to bite it, and that's now happening in Australia. It will also happen in other markets if ATM continues the same sales pitch.

There's now enough solid science for the company to change its message to make it clearer, that SOME CONSUMERS (not all) are at risk from adverse effects if they drink milk containing the A1 protein, and it's only by drinking pure A2 milk that they can avoid those effects. My guess is that if ATM's market share in Australia runs into problems it will soon start modifying its message to consumers. The aggressiveness and blatant dishonesty of its rivals is sufficient provocation to now do this.

[ziggy415]

If the price keeps going down it will make it too tempting for other big institutions to get in. ie. Milford could buy another 10,000,000. And if big holders already have 86% of ATM then that only leaves 82,409,377 left for us little holders. So my plan is to top up here and there to the bottom, Just like AIR a couple of years ago , it might work, who knows.
if there is a big seller and milford is a big buyer why not an off market trade....seems the logical way to go......thanks for showing the small amount of shares left for us bottom feeders......might just give the buy side a nudge on Monday

[Master98]

They need to switch to a "100% Pure A2 Milk" message - its very New Zealand LOL

brilliant idea should let ATM board know

[MAC]

If Lion (Pura) as one of the larger fresh milk companies is presently pushing A2, it would seem extraordinarily hypocritical if they were to now or ever try and discredit the clinical benefits of A2 over A1. Mainstream providers acknowledging A2 can only be a good thing for ATM in the long term.

If it proves that consumers are wise enough to know that “not all milk is equal”, and perhaps ATM will help with that message, then Lion may well be shooting themselves in the foot.

In six month’s time, as a consumer, you could buy Pura, you could buy Lion’s standard milk, or you could buy A2, but, if from the debate more consumers understand the difference, then consumers may well jump from Lion standard milk to ATM.

Debate ---> Awareness ---> A2 Sales


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DbQRnnJ1O84

[Joshuatree]

Yes it smacks of a little desperation , try anything tactic. Good for ATM if they have the skill to manoeuvre around the big Boys.

NO TRADES today so far.!!!?

[Master98]

Seems india start interesting in A2 milk also.
http://www.orissadiary.com/CurrentNews.asp?id=52120

[NT001]

Not just starting, M98, they've been working on this for years, both the lab science and the genetics, because the Asian cow (bos indicus) is naturally A2 and there's quite an effort being made to cash in on this, and to prevent cross-breeding with European breeds. Some of the good A2 research is coming out of India.

[Master98]

more news about A2
http://triblive.com/neighborhoods/yourscottdale/6390769-74/farm-smith-milk#axzz38nqS2hAt

[Blue Horseshoe]

QMaster98;494494]more news about A2
http://triblive.com/neighborhoods/yourscottdale/6390769-74/farm-smith-milk#axzz38nqS2hAt[/QUOTE]

I presume they are paying royalties on the sales?.

The a2 Milk Company™ owns and commercialises unique intellectual property (patents, trademarks, proprietary processes) relating to a2™ brand milk and related products in international markets.

[Master98]

Latest A2 recommendation, target price 73c.
http://www.fnarena.com/index2.cfm?type=dsp_newsitem&n=30166D6A-0EC6-89F4-BA190387950CF5DD

[couta1]

Latest A2 recommendation, target price 73c.
http://www.fnarena.com/index2.cfm?type=dsp_newsitem&n=30166D6A-0EC6-89F4-BA190387950CF5DD
Hope they are wrong not a very flash looking target price.

[Bobcat.]

I'm waiting for the anti-A2 PR Australian campaign to die down before getting back into this stock. Selling pressure may not abate for a few weeks, in spite of Milford buying.

The sooner a corrected message gets communicated (i.e. "it's the A1 in milk that's potentially damaging") the better.

[couta1]

Better than the 60 it is looking to go to!!!!
Just as well you can't believe any of these guys anyways they are all full of crap feathering their own nests I reckon.

[psychic]

Just as well you can't believe any of these guys anyways they are all full of crap feathering their own nests I reckon.

Ouch - was that aimed at Moosie or the broker...

[couta1]

Ouch - was that aimed at Moosie or the broker...
Brokers in General not our beloved hooved friend.

[MAC]

Good implicit news and tailwinds on three fronts for ATM;

1. Fonterra slashes 2015 milk payout forecast to $6/kgMS
2. Forecasts drop Kiwi dollar
3. Uncertainty exists as to a recovery on global dairy prices (costs)

http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU1407/S01042/fonterra-slashes-2015-milk-payout-forecast-to-6kgms.htm

[Master98]

I'm waiting for the anti-A2 PR Australian campaign to die down before getting back into this stock. Selling pressure may not abate for a few weeks, in spite of Milford buying.

The sooner a corrected message gets communicated (i.e. "it's the A1 in milk that's potentially damaging") the better.

one thing no argue is A1 can produce BCM7 upon digestion and A2 don't produce this stuff at all, BCM7 is similar to opioid which definitely is not a good one, someone can "immune" to BCM7 and others can not, just like "smoking can cause lung cancer" but still huge population of smokers, as only small percentage of smokers get cancer. I can not say how bad A1 milk is, at least A2 is better than A1 milk.

[Bobcat.]

I have a daughter who's been diagnosed as lactose intolerant, and so has been drinking expensive Zero-lacto milk for several years. It may be that she is instead BCM7-intolerant, in which case A2 milk would suffice. Countdown here locally sells A2 today for $2.35 per litre, which is cheaper than I thought it would be.

We will need a week or so before we can tell whether or not it works for her. If so, I'll be buying back into this stock, as an act of gratitude!

[Master98]

I have a daughter who's been diagnosed as lactose intolerant, and so has been drinking expensive Zero-lacto milk for several years. It may be that she is instead BCM7-intolerant, in which case A2 milk would suffice. Countdown here locally sells A2 today for $2.35 per litre, which is cheaper than I thought it would be.

We will need a week or so before we can tell whether or not it works for her. If so, I'll be buying back into this stock, as an act of gratitude!

just remind you BCM7-intolerant and lactose intolerant is different, i have no problem with normal milk, but i already switch to A2 milk, $4.9 per 2l a2 still cheaper than $5.4 per 2l premium milk.

[Ginger_steps_]

I'm waiting for the anti-A2 PR Australian campaign to die down before getting back into this stock. Selling pressure may not abate for a few weeks, in spite of Milford buying.

The sooner a corrected message gets communicated (i.e. "it's the A1 in milk that's potentially damaging") the better.

I snapped a couple of pics today at the local coles supermarket (dont know how to upload pics on the mobile ST site) - the a2 bottles now have tags on the lids saying "naturally a1 free" with a short note on the back - they have started pushing the message..... take that Pura! Will upload pics tomorrow if i get a chance.

[Joshuatree]

Thanks Ginger ;a proactive response from ATM. S/P stepping up a little ;hope to buy some soon.

[Jasemc]

Also good to hear frontera upping their dividend forecast because of lower price they will pay for milk.

[MAC]

It’s desperation from Lion, they are losing on a lot of fronts;

http://ausfoodnews.com.au/2014/04/07/woolworths-announces-10-year-milk-deals-but-lion-is-the-loser-in-victoria-and-wa.html

They can’t sell so much into their A1/A2 market and seem to want to have a go at the ‘premium milk market’. Consumers will see through it and it just adds to the A2 market message at no expense to ATM.

[Leftfield]

Milk price at farm gate being lower this year will be very good for ATM .

Agree, Long term prospects look v good on a number of fronts.

[Ginger_steps_]

https://www.dropbox.com/sh/cuxvtky8owv2edq/AAA-VtNADkjOD7AQLYcSHrxMa

Here are the photos I snapped yesterday, you can se both sides of the label in the two photos (I had to share a Dropbox folder - the ST site wont let me upload photos from my mac) - Pretty good effort all in all I think. I assume they are waiting for some solid scientific evidence before really hammering home the message about the potential harmful effects of A1. Also note in the photo that Coles are promoting a2 by doing a "buy a2 (2ltr) and get a tin of milo for $4.50" special - I have never seen any type of promotion like this for milk in Coles - (including their own brand) so I assume they have Coles on side for the "milk war" - a pretty solid partner to ally with!

[Ginger_steps_]

very subtle approach... thought they may get more aggressive than that... hope they have not underestimated the enemy or is this a sign that sales are not been effected.
Milk price at farm gate being lower this year will be very good for ATM and I would have thought it was very dumb of Pura to raise consumer awareness of A2, at their expense, long term this will be very good for ATM. Check out the photo link I posted - I dont think they can do any more at this point until they have solid scientific backing...right?

[Master98]

https://www.dropbox.com/sh/cuxvtky8owv2edq/AAA-VtNADkjOD7AQLYcSHrxMa

Here are the photos I snapped yesterday, you can se both sides of the label in the two photos (I had to share a Dropbox folder - the ST site wont let me upload photos from my mac) - Pretty good effort all in all I think. I assume they are waiting for some solid scientific evidence before really hammering home the message about the potential harmful effects of A1. Also note in the photo that Coles are promoting a2 by doing a "buy a2 (2ltr) and get a tin of milo for $4.50" special - I have never seen any type of promotion like this for milk in Coles - (including their own brand) so I assume they have Coles on side for the "milk war" - a pretty solid partner to ally with!

LOL, more like a label war.

[Bobcat.]

Check out the photo link I posted - I dont think they can do any more at this point until they have solid scientific backing...right?

The larger font used on the label for the word "FREE" is bound to get the attention of shoppers.

ATM's price has shown some decent support over the past few days since bottoming at 60c last week. It is now touching its downward trend-line, and so the present day technical challenge is for it to now punch through...to avoid dropping again to test the low 60's.

I'm watching the trading volume which I figure will be what's needed to lift the price along route 66.

[NT001]

Thanks very much for that, Ginger. Excellent photography and great info. However, I'm still not happy. The message is still not clear enough in my view. My preferred text would be more hard-hitting, along the lines of:

“Regular dairy milk on the market today contains a combination of two main types of beta-casein protein, A2 (the original one) and the more recent A1. Some people have problems with milk containing A1 but can easily tolerate pure A2. So we take our a2 MilkTM from cows specially selected because they naturally produce ONLY the A2 beta-casein. There’s no A1. That’s the difference. Did you know that human mothers’ breast milk is also pure A2?”

This is all verifiable and undisputable, and it's not overly confrontational with mainstream dairy.

[MAC]

Works for me, I just want to try an A2 milo now :)

[Ginger_steps_]

Thanks very much for that, Ginger. Excellent photography and great info. However, I'm still not happy. The message is still not clear enough in my view. My preferred text would be more hard-hitting, along the lines of:

“Regular dairy milk on the market today contains a combination of two main types of beta-casein protein, A2 (the original one) and the more recent A1. Some people have problems with milk containing A1 but can easily tolerate pure A2. So we take our a2 MilkTM from cows specially selected because they naturally produce ONLY the A2 beta-casein. There’s no A1. That’s the difference. Did you know that human mothers’ breast milk is also pure A2?”

This is all verifiable and undisputable, and it's not overly confrontational with mainstream dairy. Agreed, and I second Snapiti's comment RE emailing your suggestion to a2. Better wording could have been used. The only thing I wonder about is the * note at the bottom "we use ....... to minimise the possibility of our milk containing A1" - basically saying a2TM may (or does) contain some A1, and therefore cant say "There's no A1"....

[MAC]

Lion might say silver plate contains silver, ATM could say sterling silver contains impurities, but why, the consumer learns incrementally and just knows.

It wouldn't be good marketing for ATM to take on the A1/A2 suppliers head on, or to poke them in the eye, it might satisfy some investor's appetite for absolute unwavering clarity but it's not the best way to discretionarily sell milk, positive promotion is the key to sales and marketing.

….. perhaps platinum would have been a better example.

[NT001]

Ginger, I take your point about the risk of saying "there's no A1". It's hard to prevent occasional accidents at the processing works. If that particular phrase were taken out, the point would still be clear - and a little less confrontational.

As regards Snapiti's suggestion that I send it to the company, they already know my views and I think their attitude would be that they know what they're doing in the Austtralian market and are paying big bucks to some PR/advertising company there while I'm just piping up from an armchair in Wellington. I'd like to think they may be watching this thread, though.

[winner69]

As regards Snapiti's suggestion that I send it to the company, they already know my views and I think their attitude would be that they know what they're doing in the Austtralian market and are paying big bucks to some PR/advertising company there while I'm just piping up from an armchair in Wellington. I'd like to think they may be watching this thread, though.

Of course they are

Drawing by my mate Tom Fishburne

[Master98]

Below comments come from nz foodsafety web site:

Beta casein A1 and A2 in milk and human health: Lay SummaryAbout 25-30% of the protein in cows' milk is β-casein and it comes in several forms depending on the genetic make up of the cows. One of the forms is called A1 β-casein and it has been suggested that it might cause or aggravate one type 1 diabetes (which is the type seen most commonly in children), heart disease, schizophrenia, and autism. The other main form of β-casein is called A2 and it has not been not been implicated in these diseases. The evidence to support the hypothesis that the A1/A2 composition of milk is a causative or protective factor in these diseases is reviewed in the report.
The strongest evidence is for type 1 diabetes and heart disease. The main study supporting a relationship with the type of milk consumed was a comparison of 20 countries. Those countries with the highest consumption of A1 β-casein had the highest rates of type 1 diabetes and heart disease. The relationship was very strong indeed, but these types of comparisons between countries can be difficult to interpret. There are many other factors that contribute to these diseases and the information is only averaged for the whole country's population. There have been a few other human and animal studies which provide some limited support for the hypothesis. Further research, especially involving human trials, is needed before it can be said with confidence that the A1/A2 composition of milk is important in human health.
The evidence in relation to an effect of A1 β-casein on schizophrenia or autism is much less. Some individuals with autism seem to improve on special diets that are free of both casein and gluten.
The A1/A2hypothesis is both intriguing and potentially very important for population health if it is proved correct. It should be taken seriously and further research is needed. In addition, the appropriate government agencies have a responsibility to communicate the current state of evidence to the public, including the uncertainty about the evidence. Further public health actions, such as changing dietary advice or requiring labelling of milk products, are not considered to be warranted at this stage. Monitoring is also required to ensure that any claims made for A2 milk fall within the regulations for food claims.
Changing the dairy herds to more A2 producing cows is an option for the dairy and associated industries and these decisions will undoubtedly be made on a commercial basis. Changing dairy herds to more A2 producing cows may significantly improve public health, if the A1/A2 hypothesis is proved correct, and it is highly unlikely to do harm.
As a matter of individual choice, people may wish to reduce or remove A1 β-casein from their diet (or their children's diet) as a precautionary measure. This may be particularly relevant for those individuals who have or are at risk of the diseases mentioned (type 1 diabetes, coronary heart disease, autism and schizophrenia). However, they should do so knowing that there is substantial uncertainty about the benefits of such an approach.

[NT001]

Actually the "lay summary" posted by Master98 is ten years old and a lot of water has flowed under the bridge since then. The Food Safety Authority commissioned Professor Swinburn, a NZ endocrinologist at that time working at Deakin University in Australia, to review the published scientific literature on A1/A2.

His report was puiblished in 2004 I think. The Lay Summary which has just been posted was part of that report, but the food Safety Authority didn't like it, so it excised it from the report as published. It also issued a statement by Carole Inkster, one of its officials, putting an extremnely misleading gloss on Swinburn's basic findings. Her statement is still prominently situated on the FSA website. The FSA also released Swinburn's report on a day when it knew Swibnburn would be unable to attend a media conference to answer questions, so that the FSA's own misrepresentation of it got full media coverage without his being able to dispute it.

This caused a certain amount of protest, so the government forced the FSA to call in the head of the European FSA, Dr Slorach, to review the whole issue. His review tore a strip off the NZFSA's handling of the matter, but it also made the point quite strongly that there was not yet enough firm scientific evidence against A1 milk to justify warnings to consumers about its risk factors. The Slorach findings are still widely quoted against A2. But one thing that came out of all this was that the SFA very reluctantly reinstated the "Lay Summary" on its website, although it's not that easy to find compared with the SFA's own misinterpretation of it.

In the meantime Prof Swinburn, who had taken a very careful stance in his report, saying more research was needed to ascertain the risks attached to A1, has changed his own view in the light of the mounting research supporting the anti-A1 position, and has said he basically goes along with the A2 argument.

It needs to be remembered that at the time of the Swinburn report, part of the NZFSA's constitutional duty was to issue certificates assuring foreign purchasers of NZ dairy exports that they were totally safe to consume, so it was easy to see why they resorted to various dirty tricks to mislead the public over Swinburn's findings.

[Harrie]

Actually the "lay summary" posted by Master98 is ten years old and a lot of water has flowed under the bridge since then. The Food Safety Authority commissioned Professor Swinburn, a NZ endocrinologist at that time working at Deakin University in Australia, to review the published scientific literature on A1/A2.

His report was puiblished in 2004 I think. The Lay Summary which has just been posted was part of that report, but the food Safety Authority didn't like it, so it excised it from the report as published. It also issued a statement by Carole Inkster, one of its officials, putting an extremnely misleading gloss on Swinburn's basic findings. Her statement is still prominently situated on the FSA website. The FSA also released Swinburn's report on a day when it knew Swibnburn would be unable to attend a media conference to answer questions, so that the FSA's own misrepresentation of it got full media coverage without his being able to dispute it.

This caused a certain amount of protest, so the government forced the FSA to call in the head of the European FSA, Dr Slorach, to review the whole issue. His review tore a strip off the NZFSA's handling of the matter, but it also made the point quite strongly that there was not yet enough firm scientific evidence against A1 milk to justify warnings to consumers about its risk factors. The Slorach findings are still widely quoted against A2. But one thing that came out of all this was that the SFA very reluctantly reinstated the "Lay Summary" on its website, although it's not that easy to find compared with the SFA's own misinterpretation of it.

In the meantime Prof Swinburn, who had taken a very careful stance in his report, saying more research was needed to ascertain the risks attached to A1, has changed his own view in the light of the mounting research supporting the anti-A1 position, and has said he basically goes along with the A2 argument.

It needs to be remembered that at the time of the Swinburn report, part of the NZFSA's constitutional duty was to issue certificates assuring foreign purchasers of NZ dairy exports that they were totally safe to consume, so it was easy to see why they resorted to various dirty tricks to mislead the public over Swinburn's findings.

Not wanting to be accused of being a conspiratist, I'm sure that there would have been a fair amount of political pressure bought to bear on the FSA to ameliorate Swinburn's report and commission another report from a possibly more "favourable" source, where an element of uncertainty around reliability, more testing and research needed etc could be introduced into the debate. Otherwise a potential disaster to NZ's milk industry would have had a similar effect as a foot and mouth outbreak would have on the NZ economy. This would not only be a Fonterra issue but a NZ economic issue.

Who knows if Swinburn was "paid off" to emphasize that more research was needed? Emphasizing this point would not be untruthful necessarily from a scientific point of view.

Having said this, its a fairly complex scientific study that has been undertaken determining that it is the bcm-7 released from the A1 beta casein protein which makes up about 30 to 40% of total protein which causes the health issues!

Does anyone know what % of milk in NZ is type A1?

Disc: large holding in ATM

[NT001]

Not wanting to be accused of being a conspiratist, I'm sure that there would have been a fair amount of political pressure bought to bear on the FSA to ameliorate Swinburn's report and commission another report from a possibly more "favourable" source, where an element of uncertainty around reliability, more testing and research needed etc could be introduced into the debate. Otherwise a potential disaster to NZ's milk industry would have had a similar effect as a foot and mouth outbreak would have on the NZ economy. This would not only be a Fonterra issue but a NZ economic issue.

Who knows if Swinburn was "paid off" to emphasize that more research was needed? Emphasizing this point would not be untruthful necessarily from a scientific point of view.

There was some politics involved, but it came from several directions. From my knowledge of Prof Swinburn, he wouldn't have given in to any political pressure, and his report, including the lay summary, was generally accepted as being of high scientific quality - given that it didn't involve any actual research by him, it was just a review of the research already carried out by others. It wouldn't surprise me if there was pressure on the FSA, mainly from the Dairy Board (as it was then), to tone down Swinburn's findings. But when the FSA's games stirred some controversy, some of the pressure to get a review of its actions came in fact from the Green Party's food safety spokeswoman, Sue Kedgley. It was the FSA's then boss who then hand-picked his friend Dr Slorach from the European FSA for the job. Wheels within wheels. The FSAs of various countries are understandably united in not wanting to create general consumer fear about drinking milk, and that's a position even supported by ATM.

I would absolutely doubt that Swinburn was in any way "paid off" to come to his conclusions. His position was a very reasonable one, given the state of the science at the time. But since then, a great deal more has been learned about BCM-7 and A1, and about the fact that drinking A2 avoids at least some of the problems associated with A1.

As to what percentage of NZ milk is A1, I've seen various estimates, but it's not that much of an issue because in standard milk the two types are mixed together, and even having just a small percentage of A1 in the mix can have bad effects on some people with certain medical preconditions.

[iceman]

Thanks for those 2 posts NT001. Good and informative. I didn't know the details of this so great to learn more about it.

[MAC]

"Choice slams Lion's new A2 protein labelling on its Pura and Dairy Farmers milk as marketing spin"

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-08-01/a2-protein-lion/5641542

[MAC]

Has anyone a feel for how UK sales may report in a few week’s time ?

There seemed to be a lull created by Muller Wiseman prior to the buyout. The HY report though told us;

“Momentum within the UK business continued to build during the half with sales and distribution increasing progressively particularly during the second quarter”

“During the half the business achieved increased distribution within the Tesco chain, achieved growth through the online Ocado business and grew rate of sale faster than at any time since launch”

“The Company is committed to the successful development of what is currently a small but growing UK fresh milk business and is encouraged by the progress of recent initiatives”

“Given the UK business is now established and showing growth from a small base, the Board considers an entry plan for the USA should now be developed”

There are 28 certified A2 dairy farms producing in Australia which provided $52M in revenues at HY14. http://a2milk.com.au/farm/a2-farms/

There are now 20 certified A2 dairy farms producing in the UK. The UK farms may be smaller and are probably still ramping up. http://a2milk.co.uk/our-farmers/

There does seem to be a lot more activity now though if one googles for A2 in the UK ?

[ratkin]

Heard no mention of A2 been in UK 3 weeks.
Next time im in Tesco/Asda/Sainsburys and give a report

[MAC]

Heard no mention of A2 been in UK 3 weeks.
Next time im in Tesco/Asda/Sainsburys and give a report

Hardly surprising, it’s a big place and ATM’s goal seems quite humble at 1.8% market share by 2016. Probably not much yet to see at random just yet if one looks, but apparently some of the Tesco and Sainsbury stores do stock A2.

Ratkin, ATM tell us the objective is;

“ to focus on building distribution in the south east of England”, “with ranging now extending to around 250 grocery stores within the M25 motorway region “

It would be interesting to hear if you can find a store that has A2 along the M25 if you are touring in that direction, and whether they have more than 1.8% of the shelf space.

And if you’re really keen, though I’m not sure I would be;

“We are thrilled to announce that we will be at the Big Feastival this year hosted by Jamie Oliver and Alex James on Alex’s own farm in the ldyllic Cotswolds. It’s going to be a jam packed weekend of food, music and family fun. Pop by our stand for a refreshing smoothie made with a2 Milk, plus why not try your luck on our spin to win!”

http://a2milk.co.uk/

[Kiwi]

Has anybody seen A2 light blue milk on the shelves in NZ yet?
My wife and I have been trying A2 standard and although my wife has noticed quite a reduction with a throat irritation after drinking milky coffee, I find it too creamy to stomach.
Would love to try light blue as I'm sure it will help my stomach issues.

[ziggy415]

Has anybody seen A2 light blue milk on the shelves in NZ yet?
My wife and I have been trying A2 standard and although my wife has noticed quite a reduction with a throat irritation after drinking milky coffee, I find it too creamy to stomach.
Would love to try light blue as I'm sure it will help my stomach issues.
My problem exactly.....full milk bit to rich but have always had bloat after meals but always put it down to the bread but since trying a2 no more problems and also suffer from dry skin between fingers but this has also gone but this problem does come and go so not 100% if a2 cured this...time will tell....but im convinced there is something to this A2 milk

[ziggy415]

My problem exactly.....full milk bit to rich but have always had bloat after meals but always put it down to the bread but since trying a2 no more problems and also suffer from dry skin between fingers but this has also gone but this problem does come and go so not 100% if a2 cured this...time will tell....but im convinced there is something to this A2 milk

so convinced i put an order in....next cab off the rank monday morning

[ziggy415]

I see the divvy for fonterra,s product part of the buisiness will rise because of lower input cost,s so is this the same for atm

[ratkin]

You could try diluting the full cream milk with water - pretty much what they do with skim milk anyway :-)

I gave up drinking cows milk years ago. Find it easier just to drink soy milk ( light) take a few weeks to get used to , but would never go back to cows milk (even a2)

[Joshuatree]

why; curious re side effects etc?

[MAC]

Silver plate contains silver, consumers just know ………..

http://fedup.com.au/news/blog/when-is-a2-not-really-a2

http://fedup.com.au/factsheets/additive-and-natural-chemical-factsheets/a2-milk

[NT001]

Thanks for that MAC. Those two pages of information are extremely well researched and accurate, and make the important point that A1 is the problem, and milk with "some" A2 in it is not a solution.

These pages can be recommended to anyone inquiring about A1/A2, as opposed to some sites obviously sponsored by vested interests, which make lots of assertions that there is "no scientific evidence" supporting A2 over A1, but don't produce a single research paper to back them up. Consumer experience in Australia is backing up the A2 hypothesis.

I think it's going to be very interesting when Chinese consumers, who are relatively new to dairy products and have lower natural tolerances to milk, discover that A2 is an answer to their problems. Apparently many of them have been buying goats milk formula up till now because it's A2-only.

[Master98]

http://apps.who.int/trialsearch/trial.aspx?trialid=ACTRN12611000740998

Hopefully Curtin A2 study can give some positive result.

[NT001]

You could try diluting the full cream milk with water - pretty much what they do with skim milk anyway :-)

I don't think so - that would defeat the whole purpose of skimming milk, which is to take the creamy milksolids off and use them. In the old days what was left (the skimmed milk) was often thrown away, but then came the theory that it was good for you if you want to lose or control weight. That's now a somewhat controversial theory in itself, partly because in the old days when everyone thought the creamier and richer the milk the better it was for you, not as many people were being killed by heart disease. But skimmed milk does have its uses and its followers.

[Joshuatree]

I know I'm early cause i don't wanna be late
The chart doesn't say buy yet, KW neither,
But i have; easy as letting the cows out the gate
Not waiting for scientific proof either
But an announcement from Synlait.
Exchange rate turning in our favour
Cost of milk dropping too
And for those on share trader
Some are early some will be late, i hope thats not you

[see weed]

I know I'm early cause i don't wanna be late
The chart doesn't say buy yet, KW neither,
But i have; easy as letting the cows out the gate
Not waiting for scientific proof either
But an announcement from Synlait.
Exchange rate turning in our favour
Cost of milk dropping too
And for those on share trader
Some are early some will be late, i hope thats not you

I got some for 63c last Friday. Someone bought 3,000,000 yesterday, was that you moosie?

[NT001]

Another good explanatory piece about the milk wars in Australia, from a nutrition expert.

http://a2milk.com.au/is-some-a2-protein-the-same-as-all-a2-protein/

[nextbigthing]

Whatsup ATM? Up 4.8% today according to ANZ. My Intel tells me there's no official news yet however today it appears to be a Winner. Have they managed to jump through another Hoop? Hopefully they've Snapped the downtrend and helped it Skid to a stop. Maybe a few new guys providing some balance to the market after the rodgering it has had. Could be the next big thing.

[NT001]

Couple more useful recent reports I haven't seen noted on this site. One is about the Australian dairy war and the other is a long one about ATM's overall plans and why A2 milk hasn't taken off in NZ like in Australia and UK:

http://www.queenslandcountrylife.com.au/news/agriculture/agribusiness/general-news/a2-brute-dairys-showdown/2706939.aspx

http://www.stuff.co.nz/the-press/news/7373544/A2-milk-soars-overseas-but-not-in-NZ

[Master98]

Couple more useful recent reports I haven't seen noted on this site. One is about the Australian dairy war and the other is a long one about ATM's overall plans and why A2 milk hasn't taken off in NZ like in Australia and UK:

http://www.queenslandcountrylife.com.au/news/agriculture/agribusiness/general-news/a2-brute-dairys-showdown/2706939.aspx

http://www.stuff.co.nz/the-press/news/7373544/A2-milk-soars-overseas-but-not-in-NZ

lol, only rich people think about nutrition, generally OZs richer than NZs.

[NT001]

Apologies, I didn't notice that the second article I referred to in item 1532 above is actually two years old. Still interesting though.

[Longhaul]

Strongly recommend anyone wanting to keep tabs on developments for a company, brand, product etc set up Google Alerts. You can get daily or weekly emails with content related to your search terms sent to you via email for free. Just Google "Google alerts" and you're away.

[NT001]

Excellent advice, Longhaul. Which I actually follow. Can't work out why Google has just sent me that old item. Sometimes happens.

[winner69]

Dairy auction prices down another 8%(!) overnight.

Wow.

That'll put a rocket under the ATM shareprice - improved margins and all that and maybe even increased consumer demand

Good one

[winner69]

Yup. Looks like it's approaching long term support line now so wouldn't expect too much more falling.

Yes that death cross at just under 80 was the signal to stay out until things stabilised

MA lines are beginning to flatten out a bit so maybe the end of the down period is nigh. Pushing the imagination to say long term support level is close though.

I keep watching ...the believers might be right so could make heaps. After all there is 50% upside if it gets back to previous highs

[Joshuatree]

Nice to see buys outnumbering sells atm.

[Joshuatree]

Ok who read that and increased their sell, own up :sneaky2:

[see weed]

Director David Mair bought 142,531 shares for 63c at the end of July. So I suppose they must be worth at least about 63c.

[zigzag]

Director David Mair bought 142,531 shares for 63c at the end of July. So I suppose they must be worth at least about 63c.

They were non-beneficial, but a definite vote of confidence all the same. I'm guessing he bought them on behalf of a fund he has an interest in. ???

[airedale]

That is about 100K of his own money. Encouraging.

[ratkin]

Well, i have been looking around Asda and a few other supermarkets have seen no A2 milk at all.
What i did see a lot of was alpro lactose free milk
I may be wrong but those with lactose intolerence or think they are , will be buying the alpro stuff. I would say they would be a big competitor to A2 in the uk

[Harrie]

I may also be wrong, but my understanding is that A2 is not promoting the idea that it is lactose free, rather that it is bcm-7 free which has yet to be scientifically proven "beyond doubt" to have health downsides. (not enough anyway to make it into a public health warning).
Whilst not undeniably proved, there is a large body of anecdotal evidence supporting the health benefits of A2.
In addition no one has actually proven either, that the bcm-7 found in A1 beta casein is not associated with any detrimental health issues!

[Harrie]

I see that there are a number of contributors from Christchurch. Wonder why?
Would be interested to see where everyone comes from.
easy enough to do: my profile/about me/location

[Harrie]

There is also Off market discussions?
A/S/L....plse explain.

[NT001]

An advance online abstract has just been published indicating the results of the Curtin University research trial testing the differences in gastrointestinal reaction by humans to A1 and A2 milk. This trial is particularly important because it used 40-odd human subjects (not rats or mice), was very rigorous in its methodology, specifically compared human digestive reactions to A1 and A2, was carried out at a university whose reputation would not be questioned, and its findings have been accepted for publication in a top peer-reviewed journal.

I haven't seen the whole paper, nor would I understand it technically, but what is made clear in the abstract is that although this trial involved a relatively small number of subjects, it showed a marked difference in human gastrointestinal reaction to A1 and A2 milk. This would seem absolutely crucial, because if verified by a larger-scale trial it would demolish the assertions often put forward by many critics of the A2 hypothesis that there is no scientifically proven difference between how the human body reacts to A1 and A2.

The questions now are, how big are the differences, are they important healthwise, and do they clearly show that consumers (or at least SOME consumers) are better off drinking A2?

The abstract of the trial results notes "a significant positive association between abdominal pain and stool consistency on the A1 diet (r=0.520, P=0.001), but not the A2 diet (r=-0.13, P=0.43). The difference between these two correlations (0.52 versus -0.13) was highly significant (P<0.001). Furthermore, some individuals may be susceptible to A1 beta-casein, as evidenced by higher faecal calprotectin values and associated intolerance measures.”

In its conclusions, the abstract states: “These preliminary results suggest differences in gastrointestinal responses in some adult humans consuming milk containing beta-casein of either the A1 or the A2 beta-casein type, but require confirmation in a larger study of participants with perceived intolerance to ordinary A1 beta-casein-containing milk."

The research paper will appear in the European Journal of Clinical Nutrition and I hope a layman’s explanation will be made available by Professor Keith Woodford (author of “Devil in the Milk”) who was involved in the trial, possibly via his blogsite. The abstract can be read at:

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24986816

[Joshuatree]

There is also Off market discussions?
A/S/L....plse explain.

Be curious/bold and click on Forum then click on Off Market Discussions then click on the A/S/L thread where some are keen to share their personal info.

[Joshuatree]

Good point.ATM being a first mover would get taken out in the stampede by a bigger player.

There are 100's of products in the pharmacy ,supermarket that sell on the "feel good" beliefs of customers; don't need proof just good marketing the best being word of mouth. Talkback hosts are a good example spruking the good oil with endorsements/ paid ads.

[NT001]

What happens to the A2 business if every dairy company in the world starts producing milk from A2 cows and it becomes the norm? A small provider does much better in a niche market than in a mainstream one.

I think that would be unlikely to happen if ATM can keep its IP well protected. It's illegal to sell milk as "A2 Milk" because that trademark is protected, at least in the markets ATM is targeting. You can of course say that your milk has A2 protein in it, which is what some of ATM's rivals in Australia are doing, but their bluff is now being called - it's the absence of A1 (pure A2) that matters, not the mere presence of some A2. You might be able to market milk as "A1-free", but to do that you'd still have to have the cows individually tested, paying a royalty to ATM for each test, and even then there'd probably be legal and commercial fishhooks.

[Joshuatree]

Simple excellent solution.

[ratkin]

I may also be wrong, but my understanding is that A2 is not promoting the idea that it is lactose free, rather that it is bcm-7 free which has yet to be scientifically proven "beyond doubt" to have health downsides. (not enough anyway to make it into a public health warning).
Whilst not undeniably proved, there is a large body of anecdotal evidence supporting the health benefits of A2.
In addition no one has actually proven either, that the bcm-7 found in A1 beta casein is not associated with any detrimental health issues!

True but the average hypercondriac isnt going to worry about the scientific ins and out theyw will just go for the more prevelant lactose free stuff or switch to soy milk
I use soy myself now, so much easier than cows milk, keeps for ages and there lots of choice so it easy to find one with taaste you like

[andrewm]

Lactose free milk such as anchors lacto free use lactase to convert the lactose to glucose and galactose making the milk taste sweet, not to everyone's tastes. As for soy milk there is plenty of information around soy and estrogen so certain health conscious groups like the fitness types avoid it not to mention the stigma of soy being associated with vegetarians.

[Harrie]

True but the average hypercondriac isnt going to worry about the scientific ins and out theyw will just go for the more prevelant lactose free stuff or switch to soy milk
I use soy myself now, so much easier than cows milk, keeps for ages and there lots of choice so it easy to find one with taaste you like

Ok, I guess there are two different markets appealing to two different consumers.
One is the lactose intolerant market, fine, stick to the lactose free stuff, and the other is those who are not lactose intolerant but believe in the benefits of avoiding bcm-7 for an array of other health benefits, or diminishing the odds of attracting diseases associated with it.


I don't think that I have ever read that A2 milk purports to be beneficial for those who are lactose intolerant

[Hawkeye]

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11305571&ref=rss

Might be a need for milk to be sent over there now, someone should tell A2(but don't tell fonterra)

An extra link with more detail
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11305572&ref=rss

[hilskin]

He's at it again

Ongoing Disclosure Notice - David William Mair1:27pm, 8 Aug 2014 | RELINTForm 2
Ongoing disclosure notice
Section 19T(2), Securities Markets Act 1988
A Details of director or officer
Name of director or officer of public issuer: David William Mair
Name of public issuer: The a2 Milk Company Limited (ATM)
Name of related body corporate (if applicable): N/A
Position held in public issuer: Director
B. Securities in public issuer or any related body corporate to which this disclosure relates
Number, class, and type of securities: 180,000 fully paid ordinary shares
C. Nature of relevant interest and name of registered holder
Nature of relevant interest in those securities: Non-beneficial interest as shareholder of fund manager
Name of registered holder of those securities: Public Trust Forte Nominees Limited
D. Details of acquisitions and disposals
Date of acquisition: 6 August 2014
Consideration paid for acquisition: $117,000
Describe the arrangement pursuant to which, or the circumstances in which, the acquisition took place: On-market trade
E. Total number of transactions this notice relates to: One
F. Date of last disclosure notice (whether in form 1 or form 2) by director or officer: 6 August 2014
E. Signature
Signature of director or officer: See Attached.
Date of signature: See Attached.

[MAC]

Like Milford also, David Mair is purchasing (albeit on behalf of) just weeks before the FY announcement, they could have waited until after the FY, but purchasing just before must then represent good value to them, and/or perhaps it may also be a little expectant one may think.

My DCF provides $1.09 but will rerun again after the FY.

[Jasemc]

Like Milford also, David Mair is purchasing (albeit on behalf of) just weeks before the FY announcement, they could have waited until after the FY, but purchasing just before must then represent good value to them, and/or perhaps it may also be a little expectant one may think.

My DCF provides $1.09 but will rerun again after the FY.

Yes a good sign you would assume he has some inside info and even if buying on behalf of wouldn't encourage purchasing if he didn't think it was worth it. My hunch announcement on US is getting close. We really are lacking alot of info from ATM right now. A nice announcement about uk sales would be nice.

[NT001]

From today's Herald

RISK REDUCTION
Despite National's strong position in the polls, Lister says investors should "hedge their bets". He says Craigs favours companies with solid prospects under the status quo and minimal downside if there is a change of government.
They include those with low regulatory risk such as Port of Tauranga and Freightways and companies with overseas earnings, such as Fisher & Paykel Healthcare and A2 Milk.

[Harrie]

I suppose that they have been pretty consistent with their announcements in that we didn't hear much from them while the price was going up, so can't really criticize them for not making announcements on the way down.
They need to be pretty careful about what they leave out in the market place when they are working in a fairly volatile and unpredictable market where prices can vary substantially based on perceptions around either bullish or bearish comments made. Best to shut up and let the facts speak for themselves and keep your nose clean.
Having said that, I would have to agree that with both Milford and Mair buying at this point is a positive sign....picked up a small 20 @0.64 to add to holdings

[MAC]

Yep, funds buying, directors buying, Chinese regulatory approvals as expected, farm gate milk prices peaked and dropping, several new products in the last year, currency stabilising, full control now over UK marketing, recent media exposure in Australia, a possible M&A or takeover target, a pending US market entry announcement, and a possible rights issue to fund a US market entry.

Seems to be one of those classic wealth transfers from short to long, let’s see what the FY brings, I’m looking for +20% revenue growth. Strategically minimised NPAT, profits sacrificed for growth, per previous three years.

[NT001]

Like others, I guess David Mair knows what he's doing. Don't think I'll keep chasing ATM down any further so just topped up with another 25K and will now await developments.