ATM - A2 Milk Corporation Limited

[see weed]

a2 under performed yest maybe make up today but maybe waiting for results
Yes, but still in the 4 month uptrend. See what they can squeeze out of the teat today:cool:.

[Balance]

Yes, but still in the 4 month uptrend. See what they can squeeze out of the teat today:cool:.

Within striking distance of $14.00.

What are the shorters going to do?

Ouch!

Ouch!

[Ggcc]

I Wonder when Synlait will have their day. It is great to see ATM going up, but Synlait is heading nowhere as of yet

[BlackPeter]

Within striking distance of $14.00.

What are the shorters going to do?

Ouch!

Ouch!


Somebody will get hurt. Will it be the shorters? I guess it depends on their timing. If they have to fill these shorts now, than it won't be fun ... but if they have still time ... they say what goes up must come down!

ATM has currently quite amazing growth expectations priced in. We will see, whether their fast selling CEO is able to deliver ... but one thing is quite certain - as soon as she gets her hands at the next share parcel, shorters will have a fun time again!

[BlackPeter]

I Wonder when Synlait will have their day. It is great to see ATM going up, but Synlait is heading nowhere as of yet

Why would you think so?

ATM is priced on hype and expectations of unlimited scalability of a marketing company.

Synlait however delivers "hardware". they need to build a new factory every time they want to increase their output. Much more difficult (well, expensive) to scale.

[RTM]

China....the major customer for ATM and SML.
Hope that the current issues...or non-issues according to PM...are not going to upset the apple cart. (ooops…..should have saved that for SCLs')

[see weed]

A2m on ASX has just flew past station $13 at great knots. A bit fast to get on:t_up:.

[bull....]

looks like all time highs will get taken out on the asx

[couta1]

looks like all time highs will get taken out on the asx $13.78 au not today.

[bull....]

$13.78 au not today.

mean closing highs not intraday spikes

[see weed]

Bugger, Had a sell order at $13.22 last week which I had amended 6 times up to 13.71 today. Was going to amend it up to 3.85 but sold while posting on this thread. Now I my portfolio is only 97.8% ATM down from 99.5% boo hoo:confused:.

[Balance]

China....the major customer for ATM and SML.
Hope that the current issues...or non-issues according to PM...are not going to upset the apple cart. (ooops…..should have saved that for SCLs')

Infant formula will be the very very last trade item to feel the effect if the 'all cheesy teeth and no substance' PM continues to antagonize China & the inevitable happens - warning shots become live shots!

Everbright's stake in Synlait is part and partial of China's 'feed the people' long term strategy.

[Balance]

Somebody will get hurt. Will it be the shorters? I guess it depends on their timing. If they have to fill these shorts now, than it won't be fun ... but if they have still time ... they say what goes up must come down!

ATM has currently quite amazing growth expectations priced in. We will see, whether their fast selling CEO is able to deliver ... but one thing is quite certain - as soon as she gets her hands at the next share parcel, shorters will have a fun time again!

So far, the shorters have barely covered their shorts so it's obvious they are hoping for relief.

Doubt CEO selling (well signaled and last sale created a bonanza for the buyers) is going to give them that relief.

Meanwhile, the Venezuelans must be hoping and wishing that what you wrote about 'what goes up must come down' happens soon for them - they could do with inflation coming down from the 2.7 million % they are currently experiencing! Poor buggers thought it could not go higher when it reached 800% in 2016!

[dreamcatcher]

Our currency spike just caused an 11c drop in NZ

[see weed]

Our currency spike just caused an 11c drop in NZ
Yes, I was wondering what happened.

[dreamcatcher]

Yes, I was wondering what happened.

Currency at beginning of day was .9494 now .9614

[winner69]

Currency at beginning of day was .9494 now .9614

Bloody Aussies ...they should have ‘adjusted’ / reacted to on the ASX price ha ha

[see weed]

Good passenger transfer at 13.57. Welcome aboard all new holders. We have gained $1.42c in last 10 trading days. Congrats to all holders. We are still in a uptrend, todays low is up 5c and the high for the day was 20c higher, so all looking good for now.:t_up:

[BlackPeter]

Good passenger transfer at 13.57. Welcome aboard all new holders. We have gained $1.42c in last 11 trading days. Congrats to all holders. We are still in a uptrend, todays low is up 5c and the high for the day was 20c higher, so all looking good for now.:t_up:

Sounds more like you reached cruising altitude. If this is a plane - is it more likely to go up or down from there?

[Leftfield]

Interesting article on how the costs of raising a child in China have risen and the effects this is having on the one child (now two child) policy. The article notes the distrust for locally made IF and preference for imported brands such as ATM.

https://edition.cnn.com/2019/02/12/asia/china-second-child-economy-intl/index.html

[see weed]

Sounds more like you reached cruising altitude. If this is a plane - is it more likely to go up or down from there?
Yes you are right, it is more likely to go up or down from there. Maybe more up to half year report, then a bit more up with good report, then after that who knows.Bound to be plenty downs on any negative news. The Grand Old Duke Of York knows;).

[Balance]

Interesting article on how the costs of raising a child in China have risen and the effects this is having on the one child (now two child) policy. The article notes the distrust for locally made IF and preference for imported brands such as ATM.

https://edition.cnn.com/2019/02/12/asia/china-second-child-economy-intl/index.html

So they will and can continue to give their little emperors and little princesses the best - especially imported products.

And the China government WILL NOT interfere with sanctions and measures which impact adversely on the health and well being of said little emperors and little princesses.

So to all those who fret and worry (and indulge in scare tactics for whatever reason) about the China/NZ tensions - continue to do so but I will not be joining you!

[Leftfield]

So they will and can continue to give their little emperors and little princesses the best - especially imported products.

And the China government WILL NOT interfere with sanctions and measures which impact adversely on the health and well being of said little emperors and little princesses.

So to all those who fret and worry (and indulge in scare tactics for whatever reason) about the China/NZ tensions - continue to do so but I will not be joining you!

Well said.....totally agree.

[minimoke]

So they will and can continue to give their little emperors and little princesses the best - especially imported products.

And the China government WILL NOT interfere with sanctions and measures which impact adversely on the health and well being of said little emperors and little princesses.

So to all those who fret and worry (and indulge in scare tactics for whatever reason) about the China/NZ tensions - continue to do so but I will not be joining you!Theres an old adage that I think we can fall back on which is "Happy wife Happy life". The decision makers in China will be the wealthy men. And they will have wives. And they will have babies. And the last thing the decision making man will want is a wife berating him for blocking her access to safe healthy A2 Milk for her babies.

[winner69]

What’s the close today seeweed.

I’ve been banned from saying what I reckon it’ll get to .....


.....but 14 bucks plus sounds pretty good to me

[see weed]

What’s the close today seeweed.

I’ve been banned from saying what I reckon it’ll get to .....


.....but 14 bucks plus sounds pretty good to me
ATM has been going up an average of 14c per day for last 10 days. So at that rate is very possible $14 by report day, if no negatives. :t_up: Good luck holders.

[see weed]

So they will and can continue to give their little emperors and little princesses the best - especially imported products.

And the China government WILL NOT interfere with sanctions and measures which impact adversely on the health and well being of said little emperors and little princesses.

So to all those who fret and worry (and indulge in scare tactics for whatever reason) about the China/NZ tensions - continue to do so but I will not be joining you!
:t_up::D:t_up:

[see weed]

Theres an old adage that I think we can fall back on which is "Happy wife Happy life". The decision makers in China will be the wealthy men. And they will have wives. And they will have babies. And the last thing the decision making man will want is a wife berating him for blocking her access to safe healthy A2 Milk for her babies.
:D:t_up::D

[Ggcc]

Looks like a bit of profit taking is happening or more shorts

[BlackPeter]

Looks like a bit of profit taking is happening or more shorts

Hmm - looks like a double top to me (https://www.google.com/search?q=double+top+pattern&oq=double+top). Holders better implement hope strategy - or alternatively take their profits ;);

[allfromacell]

Hmm - looks like a double top to me (https://www.google.com/search?q=double+top+pattern&oq=double+top). Holders better implement hope strategy - or alternatively take their profits ;);


Agreed, I've sold a few more. I think it'll be a classic buy the rumor sell the news scenario come Wednesday. I hope not but no harm taking some off the table and hedging your bet a bit here. The stock has had such an outstanding run recently they'll need to report sales north of $600M to see the share price rocket higher imo.

Still holding loads long term.

[couta1]

Agreed, I've sold a few more. I think it'll be a classic buy the rumor sell the news scenario come Wednesday. I hope not but no harm taking some off the table and hedging your bet a bit here. The stock has had such an outstanding run recently they'll need to report sales north of $600M to see the share price rocket higher imo.

Still holding loads long term. Always good to take a feed with this stock, my latest lot has a $13.37 average price tag but if the report is good with a bullish outlook this could go $14.50 initially after the result. PS-Any other announcements such as a divvy or share buyback would sweeten up the goodie bag substantially.PPS-Its all about hype not hope BP.

[dreamcatcher]

Interesting 2-million shares in 4 large off market cross trades @ A$13.00 .............. also Sml

Shorts closing or Rocket Fuel

[see weed]

Agreed, I've sold a few more. I think it'll be a classic buy the rumor sell the news scenario come Wednesday. I hope not but no harm taking some off the table and hedging your bet a bit here. The stock has had such an outstanding run recently they'll need to report sales north of $600M to see the share price rocket higher imo.

Still holding loads long term.
You could be right. But revenue for 2016=$256.1 mill up 84%pcp. Revenue for 2017= $434.7mill up 70% pcp. Revenue for the coming 2018 year would only have to increase about 40% pcp to get over the $600 mill line. A 50% increase pcp would take it to $652 mill. If that is the case, then buy the rumor and buy the news. I will also keep my long term shares.:)

[Ggcc]

You could be right. But revenue for 2016=$256.1 mill up 84%pcp. Revenue for 2017= $434.7mill up 70% pcp. Revenue for the coming 2018 year would only have to increase about 40% pcp to get over the $600 mill line. A 50% increase pcp would take it to $652 mill. If that is the case, then buy the rumor and buy the news. I will also keep my long term shares.:)
The directors openly said that they had an increase in turnover of 40% up to their guidance forecast and that it would be similar but slightly under that 40% for the year. People need to stop thinking this company will increase turnover by over 40% and stick with the facts what directors mentioned only a few weeks ago. With the 6 month report coming up, I think what will send the stock upward is if they increase the price for their A2 platinum to China and I do believe there is scope for that

[allfromacell]

The directors openly said that they had an increase in turnover of 40% up to their guidance forecast and that it would be similar but slightly under that 40% for the year. People need to stop thinking this company will increase turnover by over 40% and stick with the facts what directors mentioned only a few weeks ago. With the 6 month report coming up, I think what will send the stock upward is if they increase the price for their A2 platinum to China and I do believe there is scope for that


People have some reason to suspect management might be under promising here. The export data from lyttelton has shown massive increases recently so who knows. This company has a good habit of surprising the market however beating 40% on such a large base will be very tough.

[see weed]

Always good to take a feed with this stock, my latest lot has a $13.37 average price tag but if the report is good with a bullish outlook this could go $14.50 initially after the result. PS-Any other announcements such as a divvy or share buyback would sweeten up the goodie bag substantially.PPS-Its all about hype not hope BP.
Hey couta, just bought back the block I sold accidentally at $13.71c, and paid the same as originally bought last week for 13.11c. Now have 4 blocks over $13, at av price 13.06c:).

[couta1]

Hey couta, just bought back the block I sold accidentally at $13.71c, and paid the same as originally bought last week for 13.11c. Now have 4 blocks over $13, at av price 13.06c:). May average down my above block before the result but it's a big block so are being a bit cautious. PS-I love Big Blocks.

[winner69]

People have some reason to suspect management might be under promising here.The export data from lyttelton has shown massive increases recently so who knows. This company has a good habit of surprising the market however beating 40% on such a large base will be very tough.

That’s so cool .....looks like H1 will indeed be a boomer

How reliable are those numbers

[see weed]

May average down my above block before the result but it's a big block so are being a bit cautious. PS-I love Big Blocks.
My overall big block av is now $7.631. And first block still 50c:cool:.

[couta1]

My overall big block av is now $7.631. And first block still 50c:cool:. You obviously haven't been selling enough, time to up the enthusiasm.

[BlackPeter]

People have some reason to suspect management might be under promising here. The export data from lyttelton has shown massive increases recently so who knows. This company has a good habit of surprising the market however beating 40% on such a large base will be very tough.

Interesting. What do these data say? Do they specify the client? Is this client Synlait or is it ATM? If they just specify milk powder, than most of it is likely to be Fonterra and SML-A1 milk powder.

Whatever it is - it might be worthwhile to remember that the lions share of the high margin SML products don't take lots of space or tonnage (Interferon, which would be anyway no A2M product and A2 infant formula, which is) while the heavy weight export (A1 milkpowder) commands quite frugal margins. Not even sure they ship Interferon and A2 infant formula by sea - but I might be wrong here.

Just saying.

[couta1]

Shorters trying their best to keep price down, small gap just filled.

[allfromacell]

Interesting. What do these data say? Do they specify the client? Is this client Synlait or is it ATM? If they just specify milk powder, than most of it is likely to be Fonterra and SML-A1 milk powder.

Whatever it is - it might be worthwhile to remember that the lions share of the high margin SML products don't take lots of space or tonnage (Interferon, which would be anyway no A2M product and A2 infant formula, which is) while the heavy weight export (A1 milkpowder) commands quite frugal margins. Not even sure they ship Interferon and A2 infant formula by sea - but I might be wrong here.

Just saying.


The stats NZ reported total volume for Nov-18 is up 162% on PCP. HK & Aus up 77% & 192% respectively (taken from Coppo report). Pretty solid as it's pretty much just A2 formula leaving that port.

[allfromacell]

As far as I know almost all IF out of that port is A2's. You can compare the total exported out of that port to the total sold in MT and they align nicely.

This shows what I mean. Credit to jzhuang from HotCopper for the data.

10319

[kiwi_crusader]

Any know what A2 supply and manufacturing agreement is with Westland Dairy? They been putting out a **** load this season according to someone on the ground.

[Leftfield]

As far as I know almost all IF out of that port is A2's. You can compare the total exported out of that port to the total sold in MT and they align nicely.

This shows what I mean. Credit to jzhuang from HotCopper for the data.

10319

And just look at the Nov/Dec 2019 figs v 2018!!

Not many sleeps to go till results out.

[allfromacell]

And just look at the Nov/Dec 2019 figs v 2018!!

Not many sleeps to go till results out.


And here again in NZD terms. 40+% growth certainly looks on the cards.

Big credit to jzhuang who keeps this updated over at HC whenever Stats NZ release the latest export data.


10321

[Balance]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12204157

NZ exports getting the cold shoulder now getting played up (deservedly so) and no doubt will impact on sentiment (especially from Aussies) towards export stocks in NZ exposed to China market - which almost all are!

[couta1]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12204157

NZ exports getting the cold shoulder now getting played up (deservedly so) and no doubt will impact on sentiment (especially from Aussies) towards export stocks in NZ exposed to China market - which almost all are! Timely opportunity for a few more shorts to save themselves before the bonfire is lit.

[bull....]

failure to make new highs has to nasty profit taking

[bohemian]

Whats happening with this company Dudes [?]any of you dudes got any views on A2 Corporation Limited [?] Perhaps uncertainty over the Huawei issue and the Chinese Governments push back against New Zealand for wanting to defend our sovereignty.

[see weed]

They can't blame Herdlicker this time. Only shareholders govern price. Been through worse...10th, 11th and 12/10/18. went from 10.20 down to 8.67 and back up to 9.89.:eek2:.

[dobby41]

ATM has been going up an average of 14c per day for last 10 days. So at that rate is very possible $14 by report day, if no negatives. :t_up: Good luck holders.

And then it was going down.

[Balance]

And then it was going down.

Giving those who missed out an opportunity to get in. :D

[couta1]

Giving those who missed out an opportunity to get in. :D Well I've certainly made a pig of myself today, my big block has near doubled in size.Lol

[couta1]

failure to make new highs has to nasty profit taking Profit taking or shorters settling for a lot less loss than they will have to take next week.

[bull....]

with the number of stories in the herald in regard to china out to get nz 5 by my count today lol ( someboy at the herald wants cheap a2 shares?) its no wonder the price is down

[couta1]

with the number of stories in the herald in regard to china out to get nz 5 by my count today lol ( someboy at the herald wants cheap a2 shares?) its no wonder the price is down Almost as bad as the brainwashing we get from the Herald with all those man induced climate change articles, if you repeat something every day the sheeple just accept it as truth eventually.

[Beagle]

Almost as bad as the brainwashing we get from the Herald with all those man induced climate change articles, if you repeat something every day the sheeple just accept it as truth eventually.

They ran out of stories to fuel their OCD about AIR. Good move selling down in the late $13's. Too much froth in the milk at that price.

[bull....]

Almost as bad as the brainwashing we get from the Herald with all those man induced climate change articles, if you repeat something every day the sheeple just accept it as truth eventually.

lol there 6 now if they pump a few more in by the end of the day it will cover the whole website lol funniest thing ive seen for ages .... wonder whos paying for this

[bohemian]

There's no brain washing at all. I think you post really well on shares.

[Bjauck]

Almost as bad as the brainwashing we get from the Herald with all those man induced climate change articles, if you repeat something every day the sheeple just accept it as truth eventually. Trump and Brexit spring to mind?

Yep the Herald love to jump on a story and flog it to death. However it does not necessarily mean that the story is not true and does not have the backing of peer-reviewed science. Good well-researched articles sometimes get lost amongst the noise!

Unfortunately some stories backed by unsubstantiated and/or fake science are often given blanket coverage by some media. So we have manipulated or co-operating media giving oxygen to these stories that take hold with gullible or disillusioned people.

[alex f]

Any views on the price dip in the last few days? Out of favour with China fear, just a correction, or do some people have knowledge of the result? (Synlait have stayed static)

[Chanchay]

Any views on the price dip in the last few days? Out of favour with China fear, just a correction, or do some people have knowledge of the result? (Synlait have stayed static)

We have had a pretty ridiculous rally over the last few weeks, I don't think you should read too much into a comparatively modest fall.

[BlackPeter]

Any views on the price dip in the last few days? Out of favour with China fear, just a correction, or do some people have knowledge of the result? (Synlait have stayed static)

In my view they are either trading in a channel between roughly $9 and $14 (and just bounced back from the top) - or alternatively you could see their latest peak as forming a double top with their heights in March 2018 (which would be a more bearish signal).

Lets face it - the price for this company is based on either hype or an for an agricultural company unheard of huge continuous and sustainable growth. Market probably just coming back to its senses. Nothing to see here.

[dreamcatcher]

Clear to see the 2 million shares in those 4 off market cross trades @ A$13.00 was the rocket fuel needed to drop the price so their short positions could be closed. Fridays 6 millions tree shake from aggressive manipulative bot/ algorithm trading dropped the SP 3 times faster then it took to rise.

Dow was up 444 points Friday as sentiment was boosted by news of progress with US-China trade dispute and talks will continue next week in Washington to achieve a deal before 1st March. Looks positive for Mondays open in both NZ & Aus.

On another matter the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs denies reports regarding Chinese government warning Chinese citizens to not go to NZ

ATM result will be excellent come 20th

[tuaman]

Very interesting article about a general stock investment I want to share.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-02-15/ask-any-stock-market-player-buying-is-easy-selling-is-hard?srnd=premium-asia

[Balance]

In my view they are either trading in a channel between roughly $9 and $14 (and just bounced back from the top) - or alternatively you could see their latest peak as forming a double top with their heights in March 2018 (which would be a more bearish signal).

Lets face it - the price for this company is based on either hype or an for an agricultural company unheard of huge continuous and sustainable growth. Market probably just coming back to its senses. Nothing to see here.

So Nestle is an agricultural company too? Probably the same sort of thinking which has cursed NZ & Fonterra to be a commodity player - while the likes of Nestle cream it in the markets.

Meanwhile, notice 5m shorted shares covered in the last month even as the sp spiked ever higher?

Sell low, buy high!

I know who I prefer to follow!

[Patient Panda]

Blackpeter ATM’s share price is a direct result of its very high, long term sustainable growth. It is not an agriculutural company and has more in common with other strongly branded FMCG like coca cola, pepsi or kelloggs, albeit much healthier than it does with a typical farm or milk processer like fonterra, economics wise

[Balance]

Blackpeter ATM’s share price is a direct result of its very high, long term sustainable growth. It is not an agriculutural company and has more in common with other strongly branded FMCG like coca cola, pepsi or kelloggs, albeit much healthier than it does with a typical farm or milk processer like fonterra, economics wise

It's ok. He is probably short and wondering why nobody shares his view.

Actually, there's 45m shares shorted so plenty share his view!

Why there is a stockmarket and guess we will not know until a few years from now?

Meanwhile, let the arguments and discussions flourish!

[BlackPeter]

So Nestle is an agricultural company too? Probably the same sort of thinking which has cursed NZ & Fonterra to be a commodity player - while the likes of Nestle cream it in the markets.

Meanwhile, notice 5m shorted shares covered in the last month even as the sp spiked ever higher?

Sell low, buy high!

I know who I prefer to follow!

Nestle is a successful and highly diversified international food and drink company though their revenue went backwards over the last 5 years ... Which property of Nestle do you want to transfer to ATM?

ATM is compared to Nestle a one trick pony. Nestle suppliers are interchangeable, important are its brands. ATM suppliers are specialised while the brand of ATM is currently not that strong (and, as we have seen, can be copied without punishment: ATWO).

Not quite sure the comparison makes sense.

But even if it would - trying to identify comparable companies, candidates, sports teams or similar and than transferring elements of the history of one candidate to the other (because they are "comparable") is one of the well-known cognitive biases (or fallacies).

VHS was a mediocre but very successful video recording standard. Which would make BetaMax to a much more successful standard - hey, they have been technically even better! Would it have made sense to compare them (in the seventies) and predict based on this comparison how they develop?

I suppose you are currently holding and I am not ... which brings us to the endowment effect (just another bias). Does not mean though you are wrong, it just means that you would think (right or wrong) that your holding is succesful. I am wishing holders all the best and a XRO-like rampup, but think personally that the current price reflects more of the opportunties but not all of the risks.

But than I probably thought that as well with XRO at $10 (and have been wrong) as well as with WYN at $2.80 (and have been right). And yes, I know - none of them are comparable.

[winner69]

Always learning BP

What’s ATWO?

[BlackPeter]

Always learning BP

What’s ATWO?

ATWO was the original brand name for Nestles famous a2 milk formula when they launched it in March 2018 in China. Apparantly its now called "Illumina two Stage 3". Sure - not as flash as "A2 Platinum", isn't it?

http://pro.m.jd.com/mall/active/34Rbtvidy31ZnMAersux1UyxFA5A/index.html

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12021611

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12140866

https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?2318-ATM-A2-Corporation-Limited&p=709479&viewfull=1#post709479

[winner69]

Thanks BP ..with you now

Bound to be an interesting xpensive failure

Wonder how Danone are going with their IF these days. Only a few months ago they reported a decline in China sales.

[BlackPeter]

Thanks BP ..with you now

Bound to be an interesting xpensive failure

Wonder how Danone are going with their IF these days. Only a few months ago they reported a decline in China sales.

Well, yes - lets hope that Nestles A2 milk failure (if it does fail) is not as well one of the transferable attributes when we compare ATM with them ;);

[Balance]

Nestle is a successful and highly diversified international food and drink company though their revenue went backwards over the last 5 years ... Which property of Nestle do you want to transfer to ATM?

.

My point is that Fonterra (NZ Dairy Board before that) had the same opportunity to develop into the added value product range and operations like Nestle - same background.

Instead, New Zealanders chose to be in the commodity business - no vision and no strategy beyond being a price taker - that's the curse of the small minded people who predominant the business scene in NZ.

ATM comes along and Fonterra actually laughed and sent the company away.

Well, we know who is laughing now.

[dreamcatcher]

Quality institutional investors SEQUOIO Funds & VANGUARD Group recent buyers

https://www.afr.com/markets/why-the-sequoia-fund-bought-a2-milk-20190129-h1ama1

[winner69]

Quality institutional investors SEQUOIO Funds & VANGUARD Group recent buyers

https://www.afr.com/markets/why-the-sequoia-fund-bought-a2-milk-20190129-h1ama1


Wow - Sequoia keen on A2

Mind you Sequoia dont seem to have done too well the last 5 years - 1.65%pa v S&P 8.50%pa ....but if they are keen on A2 they must be quality institutional investors

Anyway here's their newsletter

[url]https://www.sequoiafund.com/Download.aspx?ID=32e6202f-248f-40b6-a2dc-1e29c8750048&Name=Q4_2018_-_Investor_Letter[/url -

[Beagle]

Finally spotted Anchor lite A2 milk in my local Countdown yesterday and to say I was surprised at the price would be an understatement.
I thought Synlait only paid a tiny premium (20 cents extra from memory) to farmers for their A2 milk supply ?
Anyway at $6.37 for 2 liters I thought its quite clear that the cows are not the only ones being "milked"
Picked up 4 liters of dairy dale regular milk at the dairy on the way home for $6.00.

Youi did well Couta1 selling in the late $13's...was getting a bit frothy there wasn't it !

[whome]

Anchor is a Fonterra brand name so presume they set the price, and they will always price to protect their other brands. Anyway Fonterra are just a side show in this market. Eyes front and watching where the real action is, the China IF market for A2 IF. Sp action will be interesting in the next few days before the shorters begin to play again. Discl. Still holding but watching carefully for sp direction.

[see weed]

Finally spotted Anchor lite A2 milk in my local Countdown yesterday and to say I was surprised at the price would be an understatement.
I thought Synlait only paid a tiny premium (20 cents extra from memory) to farmers for their A2 milk supply ?
Anyway at $6.37 for 2 liters I thought its quite clear that the cows are not the only ones being "milked"
Picked up 4 liters of dairy dale regular milk at the dairy on the way home for $6.00.

Youi did well Couta1 selling in the late $13's...was getting a bit frothy there wasn't it !
Good chance to get in now beagle for a few quick trades while the sp is in a bit of a dip. It may dip a bit more before going back up. Have topped up with 18 extra blocks from 9.70 to 13.11 in the last few months. Come on now ladies and gentle, lay your bets. The table will close in a few days:).

[Balance]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12204329

All about China fears.

[winner69]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12204329

All about China fears.

Nice photo of our Jayne

[BlackPeter]

Nice photo of our Jayne

Well, yes - but she does look a bit worried - doesn't she?

[Sideshow Bob]

Finally spotted Anchor lite A2 milk in my local Countdown yesterday and to say I was surprised at the price would be an understatement.
I thought Synlait only paid a tiny premium (20 cents extra from memory) to farmers for their A2 milk supply ?
Anyway at $6.37 for 2 liters I thought its quite clear that the cows are not the only ones being "milked"
Picked up 4 liters of dairy dale regular milk at the dairy on the way home for $6.00.



Distribution is spreading, and picked some up in Stickman's local in Queenstown last week. Think it was $5.69 for 2 litres.

Not sure how well it is selling as got home and realized only had 3 days to use it before it expired.

[winner69]

First half revenues will be more than the $600m that’s mentioned in that Rticle.

BP ...Jayne not looking worried ...more coy because she’s knows sales will be more than $600m but can’t really signal that by looking happy

[black knat]

Report out of the UK Financial Times this morning (behind a paywall). Our inexperienced governemt need to get their act togeher urgently.


UK says Huawei is manageable risk to 5G


Blow to US efforts to ban Chinese company from allies’ telecoms networks

[theace]

Happened to visit a Costco Wholesale supermarket in Melbourne over the weekend ... lots of A2 milk in the chiller, as well powdered offering.

[minimoke]

Chinese women urged to have more babies: https://www.stuff.co.nz/world/asia/110677244/chinas-leaders-want-more-babies-but-local-officials-resist

And more importantly "Families complain of the soaring costs of housing, education, healthcare and safe food, an important consideration given China's frequent scandals over food and drug safety."

Just when you need safe nutritious food for your new born (or pregnant mum), who are you going to turn to?

[Beagle]

Good chance to get in now beagle for a few quick trades while the sp is in a bit of a dip. It may dip a bit more before going back up. Have topped up with 18 extra blocks from 9.70 to 13.11 in the last few months. Come on now ladies and gentle, lay your bets. The table will close in a few days:).

Synlait is a far better long term investment at the current price in my opinion. Happy to leave you, Couta1 and others to trade this to your heart's content mate.

[see weed]

Synlait is a far better long term investment at the current price in my opinion. Happy to leave you, Couta1 and others to trade this to your heart's content mate.
I hear what you are saying, but this is a2s week, and just having a bit of fun while it lasts. We can get back to the others further down the track. See if we can squeeze another 50c out of it tomorrow:).

[see weed]

Maybe another good buying opportunity soon.

[bull....]

savage man

[whatsup]

Is there a massive leak of the results of tomorrow, judging by the current sales down 4.8% so far this morning it certainly looks like it!!

[couta1]

Is there a massive leak of the results of tomorrow, judging by the current sales down 4.8% so far this morning it certainly looks like it!! Shorters final effort before they feel the heat.PS-A leak would have occurred before now.

[RupertBear]

Maybe another good buying opportunity soon.

Holy hell thay was a sudden brutal drop! :eek2:

[see weed]

Holy hell thay was a sudden brutal drop! :eek2:
Yes it was. Anyone here get back in the 12.30s.:)

[bull....]

Holy hell thay was a sudden brutal drop! :eek2:

yes well organised

[RupertBear]

Yes it was. Anyone here get back in the 12.30s.:)

Nope, got some on impulse at $12.70...now wondering WHY :confused:

[see weed]

yes well organised
Time for a break. See you after lunch.

[see weed]

Nope, got some on impulse at $12.70...now wondering WHY :confused:
Well that was a short lunch;). Nothing wrong at 12.70, got 2200 yesterday morning at 12.76 and sold them in afternoon for 13.16:).

[couta1]

yes well organised Exactly, just the normal Game of Thrones.

[bull....]

might have been to do with blackmores saying this morning there was a softning in growth in china impacted there profits

[dreamcatcher]

AUS opened 33c lower then yesterdays A$12.68 close with low been A$11.80 currently the 20 minute delay boys kicking and SP starting to make inroads into that 33c now

[see weed]

Don't know what all the fuss was about. Congrats to all buyers just after 12pm, and condolences to all sellers:eek2:.

[Leftfield]

Don't know what all the fuss was about. Congrats to all buyers just after 12pm, and condolences to all sellers:eek2:.

And congrats to all others who just sat quietly on their holdings while those around them panicked !!

[BlackPeter]

Interesting - according to 4-traders one analyst (out of 8) just downgraded ATM to "underperform" and cut the 12 month SP prediction down to $10.15; Not sure which analyst this was, but whoever is following him/her might have been spooked and sold out?

Obviously - we don't know, whether this was just a blib or the start of an avalanche of downgrades. Current consensus is $12.94 - i.e. company looks anyway pretty much fully priced. Add to that a management with questionable judgement and current risks in international markets - why buy it now?

[couta1]

Interesting - according to 4-traders one analyst (out of 8) just downgraded ATM to "underperform" and cut the 12 month SP prediction down to $10.15; Not sure which analyst this was, but whoever is following him/her might have been spooked and sold out?

Obviously - we don't know, whether this was just a blib or the start of an avalanche of downgrades. Current consensus is $12.94 - i.e. company looks anyway pretty much fully priced. Add to that a management with questionable judgement and current risks in international markets - why buy it now? That analyst could very well have been from BP Broking Ltd.Lol

[BlackPeter]

That analyst could very well have been from BP Broking Ltd.Lol

Not sharing my valuations with 4-traders .. but anyway - trend chart still looks like a double top to me ... but obviously - if the financials exceed the outrageous market expectations, than only the sky will be the limit.

[bull....]

imagine the carnage if even they mention the any of the same words as blackmores :scared:

[silu]

imagine the carnage if even they mention the any of the same words as blackmores :scared:

I won't be able to sleep now. That IS a scary thought.

[couta1]

imagine the carnage if even they mention the any of the same words as blackmores :scared: Its the Herd woman's chance to make a positive impression, she needs to choose her words carefully to maintain some credibility.

[winner69]

Its the Herd woman's chance to make a positive impression, she needs to choose her words carefully to maintain some credibility.

GAME, SET AND MATCH maybe

[BlackPeter]

Its the Herd woman's chance to make a positive impression, she needs to choose her words carefully to maintain some credibility.

can one maintain something one hasn't got?

[hardt]

Hype is a scary drug.

If they mention a single negative theme or idea and miss forecasts the market will eat up -10% in a jiffy.

[winner69]

Hype is a scary drug.

If they mention a single negative theme or idea and miss forecasts the market will eat up -10% in a jiffy.

They say when investors are euphoric, they are incapable of recognizing euphoria itself

[Balance]

They say when investors are euphoric, they are incapable of recognizing euphoria itself

Haha - there will be a few ATM holders ****ting themselves now as we head towards results day.

Someone shat in his/her pants at 12.01 pm today?

[couta1]

Haha - there will be a few ATM holders ****ting themselves now as we head towards results day.

Someone shat in his/her pants at 12.01 pm today? I'm feeling the same pre race nerves I used to feel before a big road race but that's a good thing(Call it antsy anticipation)PS-The outstanding shorts must be on a real knife edge until the morning where they may gain some relief at our expense or be all burnt up if the result exceeds expectations.

[dreamcatcher]

WHAT GS EXPECTS

SALES: NZ$608.0mn (+40% YoY growth)
EBITDA: NZ$197.7mn (+38% YoY growth)
ATM TP NZ$13.70
A2M TP A$13.00

Write your own numbers + or - Maybe A2 can replicate ALU results ??????????

ALU,ax blew the bank today with a cracker result up A$5.49 Comments "China led the revenue growth up 49%"

[Baa_Baa]

Haha - there will be a few ATM holders ****ting themselves now as we head towards results day.

Someone shat in his/her pants at 12.01 pm today?

Yeah, maybe the ones who are still holding their buys at or above $13.57 (and now the buyers above $12.87 close today) when the SP tried to double top (closing price basis) and turned away on aggressive (manipulated?) selling.

Whatever tomorrows results are, ATM is a keeper. I find it more comforting to ignore the day to day share price and back out to a weekly chart and marvel at the real and imbued success of this company.

China isn't going away anytime soon, Aus going great, US with enormous marketing and promise, supply side ramping up. Best just to avoid the day to day noise imho.

[bull....]

companies in aus are getting absolutly smashed if they do not meet markets expectations , cant believe even some good results still get smashed down 5 - 15%

[Beagle]

Hype is a scary drug.

If they mention a single negative theme or idea and miss forecasts the market will eat up -10% in a jiffy.
20-30% drop in a single day is possible with this one.

[bull....]

yea see blackmores today , pretty freaky dropped 40% on the open just by saying things looked softer in china going forward

[minimoke]

I'm still holding. and looking forward to seeing what they are going to do with the truck load or two of cash they have. I'm not concerned about any dip as I am stll way ahed and intend holding long term. You get used to teh manic ups and downs. As long as the overall trend is up, I'll be happy.

[Baa_Baa]

20-30% drop in a single day is possible with this one.

Anything is possible. But probable, maybe less so? When you're on the sidelines nursing ones FOMO, without skin in this game, or a long term outlook, it's easy to summon up daily spooky sentiment with any volatile stock, which on face value just looks like an outsider wondering whether to be an insider looking for subtle clues when really it's just a smack in the face buy and long term hold. If one took your supposition at face value, then the low close at $9.04 was screaming buy.

Proven growth companies are like that, they run away very quickly from from rational investment thought and like XRO, one day you wonder why you spent so much time criticising it at under a $1, then again under $10, then somehow it's a few thousand % gains and still unfathomable from an FA perspective. Growth. It's hard to reconcile on a rational basis. Better just to be aboard the train than miss the next station, or the one after that, or or or.

[dreamcatcher]

Anything is possible. But probable, maybe less so? When you're on the sidelines nursing ones FOMO, without skin in this game, or a long term outlook, it's easy to summon up daily spooky sentiment with any volatile stock, which on face value just looks like an outsider wondering whether to be an insider looking for subtle clues when really it's just a smack in the face buy and long term hold. If one took your supposition at face value, then the low close at $9.04 was screaming buy.

Proven growth companies are like that, they run away very quickly from from rational investment thought and like XRO, one day you wonder why you spent so much time criticising it at under a $1, then again under $10, then somehow it's a few thousand % gains and still unfathomable from an FA perspective. Growth. It's hard to reconcile on a rational basis. Better just to be aboard the train than miss the next station, or the one after that, or or or.

Well Said .........

[couta1]

Anything is possible. But probable, maybe less so? When you're on the sidelines nursing ones FOMO, without skin in this game, or a long term outlook, it's easy to summon up daily spooky sentiment with any volatile stock, which on face value just looks like an outsider wondering whether to be an insider looking for subtle clues when really it's just a smack in the face buy and long term hold. If one took your supposition at face value, then the low close at $9.04 was screaming buy.

Proven growth companies are like that, they run away very quickly from from rational investment thought and like XRO, one day you wonder why you spent so much time criticising it at under a $1, then again under $10, then somehow it's a few thousand % gains and still unfathomable from an FA perspective. Growth. It's hard to reconcile on a rational basis. Better just to be aboard the train than miss the next station, or the one after that, or or or. A very astute post there Baa Baa, doesn't matter which way the SP goes tomorrow because long term there's only one way its going and the potential is massive, trade the stock or hold it long and you'll make money. PS-This stock has been my best performer hands down and that's with only making a fraction of what I could have. PPS- XRO was just as successful for many.

[Beagle]

Anything is possible. But probable, maybe less so? When you're on the sidelines nursing ones FOMO, without skin in this game, or a long term outlook, it's easy to summon up daily spooky sentiment with any volatile stock, which on face value just looks like an outsider wondering whether to be an insider looking for subtle clues when really it's just a smack in the face buy and long term hold. If one took your supposition at face value, then the low close at $9.04 was screaming buy.

Proven growth companies are like that, they run away very quickly from from rational investment thought and like XRO, one day you wonder why you spent so much time criticising it at under a $1, then again under $10, then somehow it's a few thousand % gains and still unfathomable from an FA perspective. Growth. It's hard to reconcile on a rational basis. Better just to be aboard the train than miss the next station, or the one after that, or or or.

The question is what is a reasonable forward PE for a company such as this. We'll know a lot more tomorrow.

[carrom74]

With so much cash reserves in the kitty..more money splashing towards SML?

[Sideshow Bob]

With so much cash reserves in the kitty..more money splashing towards SML?

Pretty much not without making an offer for the whole lot, as close to 20% now.

But not their style - let someone else own the stainless steel, concentrate on marketing and building a big, deep moat......

[see weed]

Anything is possible. But probable, maybe less so? When you're on the sidelines nursing ones FOMO, without skin in this game, or a long term outlook, it's easy to summon up daily spooky sentiment with any volatile stock, which on face value just looks like an outsider wondering whether to be an insider looking for subtle clues when really it's just a smack in the face buy and long term hold. If one took your supposition at face value, then the low close at $9.04 was screaming buy.

Proven growth companies are like that, they run away very quickly from from rational investment thought and like XRO, one day you wonder why you spent so much time criticising it at under a $1, then again under $10, then somehow it's a few thousand % gains and still unfathomable from an FA perspective. Growth. It's hard to reconcile on a rational basis. Better just to be aboard the train than miss the next station, or the one after that, or or or.
My turn. A good post. A good morning and time for bed.

[winner69]

The question is what is a reasonable forward PE for a company such as this. We'll know a lot more tomorrow.

Ben Graham would say north of 60

I say 30 to 40

Some would say 20 about right

So 40 cents eps likely reasonable price somewhere between $8 and $25

[see weed]

One hour to go. Wonder if any surprise announcements to add to half year. Last year surprise was Fonterr:eek2:a. Whatever happens there will be movement up, down or sideways, hang on and enjoy the ride. :t_up:

[bull....]

yep got my poo catchers on just in case

[bull....]

heres some reading to remind long term holders in the off chance it falls 20% today

https://microcapclub.com/2014/08/the-conviction-to-hold/

[Snoopy]

Anything is possible. But probable, maybe less so? When you're on the sidelines nursing ones FOMO, without skin in this game, or a long term outlook, it's easy to summon up daily spooky sentiment with any volatile stock, which on face value just looks like an outsider wondering whether to be an insider looking for subtle clues when really it's just a smack in the face buy and long term hold. If one took your supposition at face value, then the low close at $9.04 was screaming buy.

Proven growth companies are like that, they run away very quickly from from rational investment thought and like XRO, one day you wonder why you spent so much time criticising it at under a $1, then again under $10, then somehow it's a few thousand % gains and still unfathomable from an FA perspective. Growth. It's hard to reconcile on a rational basis. Better just to be aboard the train than miss the next station, or the one after that, or or or.


I would be first to admit that the decision to concentrate on the Chinese IF market and the subsequent results have been impressive. And before that the way A2 penetrated the supermarket duopoly in Australia (perhaps less of a duopoly now with the arrival of Aldi) was great. Yet many here seem to have forgotten that this was the result of a near twenty year development program. Twenty years to obtain 'overnight success' and the road to success has been far from perfect. For those who have forgotten, the first foray into the US was such a disaster the company had to withdraw from that market completely. The home NZ market initiative has been well below par, and was only recently restructured with Fonterra coming on board. And England/Europe can be best be described as 'muddling along'. Latterly 'Australian growth' has been maintained only because that domestic market has become an alternative channel for export to China. Other expansions into wider Asia are so far peripheral. What I am saying here is that A2M is far from the unstoppable juggernaut that never puts a foot wrong that some here think.



A very astute post there Baa Baa, doesn't matter which way the SP goes tomorrow because long term there's only one way its going and the potential is massive, trade the stock or hold it long and you'll make money. PS-This stock has been my best performer hands down and that's with only making a fraction of what I could have. PPS- XRO was just as successful for many.


'Baa baa's implication that you should suspend rational investment thought and buy at any price to get on the train would have to rate as the least astute remark I have read on this forum for some time. Unlike Xero, at least A2M makes a profit - kudos for that. But I would have thought it would have been more astute to look at how other foreign companies have followed their own growth paths into China as a better clue as to how A2M might develop their Chinese market presence. And I have seen very little evidence that the 'A2 faithful' on this thread have ever even thought about doing that.

SNOOPY

[bull....]

good headline numbers , sales light? and margin compression next half? see what happens

[weasel]

WHAT GS EXPECTS

SALES: NZ$608.0mn (+40% YoY growth)
EBITDA: NZ$197.7mn (+38% YoY growth)
ATM TP NZ$13.70
A2M TP A$13.00

Write your own numbers + or - Maybe A2 can replicate ALU results ??????????

ALU,ax blew the bank today with a cracker result up A$5.49 Comments "China led the revenue growth up 49%"

Sales 613
EBITDA 218

[couta1]

Awesome result and strong outlook, what more could you ask for.

[winner69]

Wow ....ebitda margin 35% when they indicated something similar to 30%

Full year margin 31%/32% still awesome

Maybe 50 cents eps .....PE of 40 is 20 bucks ..even at 30 that’s 15 bucks

Big spike up today and continue for rest if year

[Leftfield]

Awesome result and strong outlook, what more could you ask for.

Yee ha! Great result.....Maybe Jane's OK after all!! USA revenue growth of over 100% is impressive.

Happy holder.

[couta1]

Yee ha! Great result.....Maybe Jane's OK after all!! USA revenue growth of over 100% is impressive.

Happy holder. Above market expectation for sure, not sure when Jane is going to announce her next cash in, probably next week.

[couta1]

good headline numbers , sales light? and margin compression next half? see what happens You be watching your shorter mates in pure fear mode now ready for the bonfire.

[winner69]

Can’t wait until mid day when the ASX opens

With this result might get some scallops/oysters and chips for lunch and go and sit on the beach and watch the ASX action

[hardt]

Noice, party continues as expected.

5.7% mkt share in China

[Ted2]

Maybe 50 cents eps .....PE of 40 is 20 bucks ..even at 30 that’s 15 bucks


Pay it in a divvy and I'll almost get my entire stake back :t_up: :t_up: :t_up:

[silu]

It's a great result for a growth company. Can't see anything in the presentation that would point towards a drop today except the old adage "buy on rumour, sell on fact". Happy that pants remain unsoiled.

[kizame]

It's a great result for a growth company. Can't see anything in the presentation that would point towards a drop today except the old adage "buy on rumour, sell on fact". Happy that pants remain unsoiled.

The rumour was when the price hit 13.75,then down to 12.30 odd, now it's fact.

[bull....]

You be watching your shorter mates in pure fear mode now ready for the bonfire.

haha we shall see which way it goes as we all know who knows what the market things with this stock sometimes.( you do know you can be both long and short at the same time with a2 if you so desire.)

[couta1]

Only negative the market may not like is the lowering EBITDA from 35% to 31-32% but hey it's a growth company in expansion mode.

[allfromacell]

haha we shall see which way it goes as we all know who knows what the market things with this stock sometimes.( you do know you can be both long and short at the same time with a2 if you so desire.)

Surely no way it goes down on such a massive beat. Congrats to all long term holders who continue to hold such a great performing company and ignore all the noise.

[BlackPeter]

Good result (slightly exceeding the expectations of some,but not all analysts) - will be interesting to see what the market makes out of it.

Didn't realise though that 80% of their revenue comes from infant formula, and most of that goes (one way or another) to China. Talk about risk diversification ...

[Arbroath]

Wow ....ebitda margin 35% when they indicated something similar to 30%

Full year margin 31%/32% still awesome

Maybe 50 cents eps .....PE of 40 is 20 bucks ..even at 30 that’s 15 bucks

Big spike up today and continue for rest if year


Try maybe 35c EPS....still another great year panning out...might get to 50c EPS in 2020.

Should challenge the highs in the $14-15 range soon as long as China keeps buying the product

[Oliver Mander]

really pleasing aspect of the result to me is the US/UK segment. That looks like underpinning "the next wave" of new future growth (at scale) when the Chinese growth tapers off...

[allfromacell]

All the commentary was positive. The said full year margins to be 31-33% yet earlier they foretasted 30%. Shorters must be terrified, this will be fun to watch when the ASX opens. :t_up:

[Oliver Mander]

Some interesting "matching" at the moment on the NZX...might be worth trying your luck!

10330

[bull....]

so its going to open a dollar higher?

[tzbang]

Massive result.. wish I hadn't reduced my holding a while back at $12.68. Never-mind, still have enough to celebrate.
It will be interesting to see if there is any correlation with Synlait.

( I used to dislike oysters but now I love them, with chips of course. Purely because some people talk about them so much on this forum)

[Beagle]

Only negative the market may not like is the lowering EBITDA from 35% to 31-32% but hey it's a growth company in expansion mode.


Great result. One thing to watch is full year EBITDA is expected to be 31-32% so what does that suggest about second half EBITDA, well under 30% right ?
The other thing I think that warrants serious consideration is the current state of relations between N.Z. and China and what might be the implications for ATM going forward.
One final thing, when is Herdlicker and other insiders going to dump millions more shares on the market ?, (remembering they haven't been able to sell as insiders leading up to this announcement).
Be careful mate and don't get carried away.
Great that they're doubling marketing spend to drive future growth and doing all the heavy lifting with this which is something I am sure Synlait shareholders will be very pleased about.

[bull....]

10332


bathing in the milk

[weasel]

yes it is bull

[winner69]

Anybody notice the $69m loss on the listed investment (Synlait) in Other Comprehensive Income

[see weed]

Can’t wait until mid day when the ASX opens

With this result might get some scallops/oysters and chips for lunch and go and sit on the beach and watch the ASX action
Yes ASX might put us up over $14. Last year went from 9.50 to $11 by mid day then over $12 in afternoon then over $14 in the following 3 weeks. Any thing is possible:t_up:.PS Buyers building up over in Aussi and still one hour 45min to open.:t_up::t_up:

[minimoke]

100,000 just gone through at $13.81. Someone taking profit and someone cross they didn't buy yesterday.

[winner69]

Great result. One thing to watch is full year EBITDA is expected to be 31-32% so what does that suggest about second half EBITDA, well under 30% right ?
The other thing I think that warrants serious consideration is the current state of relations between N.Z. and China and what might be the implications for ATM going forward.
One final thing, when is Herdlicker and other insiders going to dump millions more shares on the market ?, (remembering they haven't been able to sell as insiders leading up to this announcement).
Be careful mate and don't get carried away.
Great that they're doubling marketing spend to drive future growth and doing all the heavy lifting with this which is something I am sure Synlait shareholders will be very pleased about.

Main thing to note is Gross Margins continue to improve (inputs and price)

EBITDA margins shrinking in H2 because of added investment in growth (doing what Heartland are doing and not holding back). You know that anyway

Even at 31%/32% full year EBITDA margin is higher than last year ...isn’t that good?

[Southern_Belle]

I sold out all my holding at Christmas time after frustration of going nowhere .

In the new year it started to climb and I had FOMO anxiety so decided to buy back in and sit tight. Glad I did and have learnt a lesson to ignore all the sideline noise.

[sb9]

Main thing to note is Gross Margins continue to improve (inputs and price)

EBITDA margins shrinking in H2 because of added investment in growth (doing what Heartland are doing and not holding back). You know that anyway

Even at 31%/32% full year EBITDA margin is higher than last year ...isn’t that good?

And as we all know they're always conservative with their forecast.

[minimoke]

I sold out all my holding at Christmas time after frustration of going nowhere .
.???? It was in uptrend starting October. ATM ALWAYS goes somewhere. Consistently always up or down.

[sb9]

Expect a massive re-rate to happen over next few weeks once all Analysts pump out their valuations.

[Beagle]

Main thing to note is Gross Margins continue to improve (inputs and price)

EBITDA margins shrinking in H2 because of added investment in growth (doing what Heartland are doing and not holding back). You know that anyway

Even at 31%/32% full year EBITDA margin is higher than last year ...isn’t that good?
Yes 31.5% EBITDA (mid point) is a nice improvement on 30.7% last year and a little above consensus expectations of 30.9% for FY19 https://www.marketscreener.com/A2-MILK-COMPANY-LTD-11384022/financials/
I am not sure however that the average market consensus of 37 cps is going to be exceeded by much if anything what with marketing doubling in the second half.
If we work of 37 cps (average analyst expectation) the shares at $13.80 are on a forward PE of 37 which is right at the top end of their historical multiple range.
One should not overlook the China concentration / regulatory risk with this stock which in my view is not priced into the stock at all.

Synlait on a forward PE of 19.6 with its more diversified business plan looks like a better risk reward investment at around $9.80 on around half the PE that ATM at $13.80.
Remember that in many ways their fortunes are inextricably linked.
Interestingly is we look right out to FY21 as far as the analysts are forecasting the eps growth rate of Synlait and ATM is the same and yet its priced on roughly half the PE.
I think at just under $14 its a great time to lock in some profit before Herdlicker and her colleagues do.

Not trying to rain on anyone's parade, (so I will leave it at that and let you guys enjoy the day)...it just could be there's a better and safer way to play this growth story with Synlait.

[Sideshow Bob]

100,000 just gone through at $13.81. Someone taking profit and someone cross they didn't buy yesterday.

Expect that was Seeweed closing out one of his trades...….. :p

[bull....]

Yes 31.5% EBITDA (mid point) is a nice improvement on 30.7% last year and a little above consensus expectations of 30.9% for FY19 https://www.marketscreener.com/A2-MILK-COMPANY-LTD-11384022/financials/
I am not sure however that the average market consensus of 37 cps is going to be exceeded by much if anything what with marketing doubling in the second half.
If we work of 37 cps (average analyst expectation) the shares at $13.80 are on a forward PE of 37 which is right at the top end of their historical multiple range.
One should not overlook the China concentration / regulatory risk with this stock which in my view is not priced into the stock at all.

Synlait on a forward PE of 19.6 with its more diversified business plan looks like a better risk reward investment at around $9.80 on around half the PE that ATM at $13.80.
Remember that in many ways their fortunes are inextricably linked.
Interestingly is we look right out to FY21 as far as the analysts are forecasting the eps growth rate of Synlait and ATM is the same and yet its priced on roughly half the PE.
I think at just under $14 its a great time to lock in some profit before Herdlicker and her colleagues do.

Not trying to rain on anyone's parade, (so I will leave it at that and let you guys enjoy the day)...it just could be there's a better and safer way to play this growth story with Synlait.

need to remember in the long run manufacturers always get screwed as big customers demand better costs. a2 will be no different at some point in time.

[Sideshow Bob]

What price did Jayne sell out at? $12 something? Surely could have taken a loan out against them, and then pocketed another dollar or so.

[minimoke]

Not trying to rain on anyone's parade, (so I will leave it at that and let you guys enjoy the day)...it just could be there's a better and safer way to play this growth story with Synlait.Some of us hold both. (ye old favourite will be coming out of hibernation tonight!)

[sb9]

erdlicker and other insiders going to dump millions more shares on the market ?, (remembering they haven't been able to sell as insiders leading up to this announcement).


Doesn't worry me a bit if and when all of them they sell out after delivering such a stupendous result for shareholders. They deserve to enjoy their hard work too.

[see weed]

Expect that was Seeweed closing out one of his trades...….. :p
No, I only sell in 2000 to 3000 blocks during the day or a bigger block on open or close. Buying I have a different approach;).

[Beagle]

Doesn't worry me a bit if and when all of them they sell out after delivering such a stupendous result for shareholders. They deserve to enjoy their hard work too.

No argument that Babbage deserves an extremely comfortable retirement as he has done wonders for this company over a long period of time.

[sb9]

http://www.voxy.co.nz/business/5/332414

This piece reads better than today's result.

[Redmack]

100,000 * $13.81 = $1,381,000 - fees. Hypothetically a person could build quite a deck.

[bull....]

100,000 * $13.81 = $1,381,000 - fees. Hypothetically a person could build quite a deck.

yes 100000*50c = $50000 now worth 1,381,000 how many people in this position

[bonne vie]

What is the current FX rate you are using between AUD and NZD to estimate A2M and ATm. Thanks

[see weed]

At what price will Aussi open. Buyers still building up. Lay your bets ladies and gentleman, this is your last call, betting closes in 13mins.:t_up::D:t_up:

[bonne vie]

Aud13.30. Lets hope that 40000 at aud11.73 sell change their buy rate soon.

[Balance]

At what price will Aussi open. Buyers still building up. Lay your bets ladies and gentleman, this is your last call, betting closes in 13mins.:t_up::D:t_up:

Light volume still on the cross - 343,000 shares at $13.00 (updated)

43.7m shares still shorted at the last update so there will be some panic covering.

NZ volume traded so far is 1.115m shares so expect at least 3.5m shares to be traded on ASX.

$13.00 is easy - will it reach $13.50?

[minimoke]

at what price will aussi open. Buyers still building up. Lay your bets ladies and gentleman, this is your last call, betting closes in 13mins.:t_up::d:t_up:aud $13.50

[Balance]

Shorters are definitely feeling the BURN!

Ouch!

And there's more pain yet unless they cover with the way US China trade talks are progressing!

[dreamcatcher]

Current exchange rate @ .9608

[bonne vie]

Called it exactly aud13.30 now to aud 13.65.

[Ggcc]

Think they hit the roof for the day.... too early to say, but just a hunch

[see weed]

A2 will be the talk of the town in next few days and in tomorrows papers. shareholders will tell their friends and family and other new punters will want a piece of the a2cowpie. Sp could shoot up even more with all this news. It came in a couple of waves last time.:):t_up:

[Tiddlywinks]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2019-02-19/new-zealand-s-a2-milk-not-seeing-headwinds-in-china-ceo-says-video

A2 NOT seeing any headwinds in China

[777]

A2 will be the talk of the town in next few days and in tomorrows papers. shareholders will tell their friends and family and other new punters will want a piece of the a2cowpie. Sp could shoot up even more with all this news. It came in a couple of waves last time.:):t_up:

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12205339

[minimoke]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12205339Thats sounds great. I should go out and buy some shares. Oh, hang on. I already do.

[sb9]

Courtesy of a poster on HC....

CEO appearance on Bloomberg Asia:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2019-02-19/new-zealand-s-a2-milk-not-seeing-headwinds-in-china-ceo-says-video

Have heard the line "no headwinds" from Jayne at least 3 or 4 times in that interview.

[couta1]

Depth chart has been running delayed by near 30 mins since just after 12 with DB, not sure where the problem lies but hopeless.

[minimoke]

Depth chart has been running delayed by near 30 mins since just after 12 with DB, not sure where the problem lies but hopeless.Seems to be reporting ASX live
. $13.30.50 at 11.43

[couta1]

Seems to be reporting ASX live
. $13.30.50 at 11.43 Yep that's live but doesn't help NZX holders.

[777]

Depth chart has been running delayed by near 30 mins since just after 12 with DB, not sure where the problem lies but hopeless.

If ASB is the same then it will be an NZX problem.

[minimoke]

Yep that's live but doesn't help NZX holders.
For holders its fine. Its the traders who will be disadvantaged.

Given ASX is live seems it might be a problem with the NZX feed. We really should look at binning the NZX.

[sb9]

Looks like the post-lunch assault is on $13.95 as I type, might clinch that $14 mark this arvo if all going well.

[see weed]

Looks like the post-lunch assault is on $13.95 as I type, might clinch that $14 mark this arvo if all going well.
:t_up::t_up:There she blows my hearties $14:t_up::t_up:

[Beagle]

:t_up::t_up:There she blows my hearties $14:t_up::t_up:

Maybe the Herd will notice and start dumping ?

[Balance]

BURN, baby, BURN!

Shorters desperately covering - that's the word.

Time to sell a few to take advantage of their 'Sell low, Buy high' strategy!

[carrom74]

Wonder who was that "intelligent" Aussie broker who scared and rattled the stock markets? I should thank him as i bought some yesterday when it fell briefly.

[Balance]

Light volume still on the cross - 343,000 shares at $13.00 (updated)

43.7m shares still shorted at the last update so there will be some panic covering.

NZ volume traded so far is 1.115m shares so expect at least 3.5m shares to be traded on ASX.

$13.00 is easy - will it reach $13.50?

And $13.50 it is!

BURN, baby, BURN!

[Ghost Monkey]

Balance seems to be enjoying himself today.

[Ggcc]

Haha love the enthusiasm balance.

[silu]

Haha love the enthusiasm balance.

Probably like me balance has a big chunk of ATM (and also SKO) :) :)

[couta1]

And $13.50 it is!

BURN, baby, BURN! Disco Inferno. PS-That Herd woman ain't taking my profit this time.

[Balance]

Probably like me balance has a big chunk of ATM (and also SKO) :) :)

Need another one like this two!

[see weed]

Is everybody happy, you bet your life we are. Wow, went away for hour to finish the hedge and it's up another 30c :t_up::D:t_up:. And to think nearly sold a small amount yesterday at 12.87.:cool:

[minimoke]

Well, What a great day. I have never before in my whole life made so much paper profit from the sharemarket in one day as I have done today. My portfolio has smiled upon me!

[couta1]

Well, What a great day. I have never before in my whole life made so much paper profit from the sharemarket in one day as I have done today. My portfolio has smiled upon me! Paper profit looks nice but realised profit tastes excellent. PS-Shorts burning but I reckon many will be waiting for the Herd lady to announce her next sale to get out of jail.

[Beagle]

Paper profit looks nice but realised profit tastes excellent. PS-Shorts burning but I reckon many will be waiting for the Herd lady to announce her next sale to get out of jail.

Good on ya mate, never hurts to take some chips off the table when something has run this hot in one day.

[minimoke]

Paper profit looks nice but realised profit tastes excellent. PS-Shorts burning but I reckon many will be waiting for the Herd lady to announce her next sale to get out of jail.I keep trying to tell myself its not the destination, but the journey that's important. Its a long term portfolio. Which means I have to ride the ups, as well as the downs. The downs can be miserable - so days like to day are there to be savoured and enjoyed.

At $14.25 we still have potential to breach all time high of $14.62.

(Bets on it being below $13 by month end!)

[RupertBear]

Well, What a great day. I have never before in my whole life made so much paper profit from the sharemarket in one day as I have done today. My portfolio has smiled upon me!

Well ATM is the wee Bears first double bagger :t_up: might only be a wee bag compared to most of you but it feels doubly good to me :D

[winner69]

A good day, a very good day

Oysters and chips were nice at lunch

Why sell now, remember A2 is the next Daone

Be patient, as they say — A2 didn’t become the next Daone in a day

[Patient Panda]

Very happy with the results. Makes my buying in october at 9.88 feel very canny:)

Patience is many a pandas best friend. Expecting these good results for a long time to come.

[Joshuatree]

Finishing close to its high of the day and biggest vol since september augers well atpit.

[Dorkus]

I missed out on my sell order at $12.95 by 1 or 2 cents before the big sell down last year. Held patiently through the low but took 90% off the table today @$14.00. Only reason I'm not holding longer is i'm half way through building a house and want to keep the borrowing in check. A good day today considering my average buy price was $1.70 :)

[minimoke]

Only reason I'm not holding longer is i'm half way through building a house and want to keep the borrowing in check. A good day today considering my average buy price was $1.70 :)selling to build a deck is a legitimate reason

[couta1]

Congrats to all LT holders and savvy traders big or small, oh and commiserations to the shorters who got burnt up today.PS-Flameproof suits may be required tomorrow also.

[bonne vie]

Called it exactly aud13.30 now to aud 13.65. Boy I wish I trusted my instincts more.

[bonne vie]

We still all remember you promoting A2 at the supermarkets and am I right 2-4 years ago putting the house on it?

[Balance]

$2.01, drum roll pls...:t_up::D

And that was almost exactly 3 years ago!

Wonder how many listened to all the doomsday predictions at that time and bailed out!

Because ATM spent most of 2016 under $2.00 - as low as $1.50 at one stage.

[Leftfield]

I’ve been an intermittent observer today as I drive down the Kaikora Coast flabbergasted by the scale of the devastation and the quality of the ongoing rebuild.
Nice to stop for the nite and learn that all who held onto their ATM have done well today. Congrats to all. I was v impressed by their comments on the USA market ie that it is following the course that saw ATM succeed in the Aus mkt. So exciting times ahead in the USA. I also noted mention of a new agreement with State Farms in China. So some security in this vital market too.
Exciting tho today was I still think this is a keeper in my portfolio. Still holding.

[RGR367]

And that was almost exactly 2 years ago!

Wonder how many listened to all the doomsday predictions at that time and bailed out!

Because ATM spent most of 2016 under $2.00 - as low as $1.50 at one stage.

TY Balance but we're not even talking about 2016 as we got hooked to the story early 2015 :) And just like XRO, you have to believe in the story to start accumulating from that mentioned year.
Long term holders or not, congrats to all!!!

[longy]

selling to build a deck is a legitimate reason

I have sold 40% of holding today to pay for my big tax bill for year ended 18. True!

[dreamcatcher]

Fantastic result today well done to a2 management & staff plus the many LT holders

Positive forward outlook with both Fonterra & Synlait onboard this bus heading to new highs

Today's SP may be the new norm ........... who knows !

[Sideshow Bob]

I have sold 40% of holding today to pay for my big tax bill for year ended 18. True!

After today might have to do that to pay for a CG tax...….;)

[Sideshow Bob]

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/farming/110724937/a2-pulls-in-record-profit-as-infant-formula-sales-boom

From Stuff yesterday. Fonterra are 'planning' to sign up 100 Waikato farmers to A2 this year. Not sure how many are out there, but must have some basis for these plans. Will they be supplying some into Pokeno??

Surely must underwrite any supply concerns...…??

[Tiddlywinks]

After today might have to do that to pay for a CG tax...….;)

Any CGT (if it's implemented) will only be payable on gains after the valuation date that's set. This would likely be 2 years down the road.

[silu]

How does 60c sound to you as an entry point for yours truly?

I can do slightly better at 50c entry and the avg price of my shares at 55.8c. Got any holders here with a smaller average price? #notsothinnlyveiledhumblebrag

btw I've gone to the couta school of investing and only hold 3 shares on the NZX now. A huge chunk of ATM, A very big chunk of SKO and a smallish piece of SUM (which I look to divest).

[black knat]

Forbar's new target price - $16.

[Balance]

I can do slightly better at 50c entry and the avg price of my shares at 55.8c. Got any holders here with a smaller average price? #notsothinnlyveiledhumblebrag

btw I've gone to the couta school of investing and only hold 3 shares on the NZX now. A huge chunk of ATM, A very big chunk of SKO and a smallish piece of SUM (which I look to divest).

Brave man!

I will never be so brave as you.

[silu]

Brave man!

I will never be so brave as you.

to be honest I'm way more divested on the ASX and US markets. I just find it so hard to take cream off the top on ATM and SKO (by far my biggest winners) because I think they have so much more room to grow thus completely ignoring my portfolio rules. The moment I lose sleep over them I'll sell some.

[Southern_Belle]

Any CGT (if it's implemented) will only be payable on gains after the valuation date that's set. This would likely be 2 years down the road.and canned by new government before implementation

[sb9]

I can do slightly better at 50c entry and the avg price of my shares at 55.8c. Got any holders here with a smaller average price? #notsothinnlyveiledhumblebrag

btw I've gone to the couta school of investing and only hold 3 shares on the NZX now. A huge chunk of ATM, A very big chunk of SKO and a smallish piece of SUM (which I look to divest).

My first parcel was 58c and added plenty along the way around $1, $2, $3 with most recent around $10 mark last year.

[sb9]

And that was almost exactly 3 years ago!

Wonder how many listened to all the doomsday predictions at that time and bailed out!

Because ATM spent most of 2016 under $2.00 - as low as $1.50 at one stage.

Thanks for that trip down the memory lane, $2 seemed such pivotal point at that time after being stuck under $1 for a long time in 2014 and 2015.

[Southern_Belle]

Apologies in advance for going off A2 topic but reading entry level points and others mentioning Fonterra and Synlait. I have been watching Keytone Dairy (KTD.ASX) and wondered if others following A2 developments have taken a position in KTD? (Asked here as very few posts on ASX thread) ...... Delete or Ignore if I am out of line ..... as I sit here waiting for the markets to open & see what the day brings

[RGR367]

How does 60c sound to you as an entry point for yours truly?

Good on you but I accumulated most of mine (checking on my spreadsheet) from 27 Feb to 20 March in 2015 for an average of just 53 cents :t_up:

[dreamcatcher]

Fantastic result today well done to a2 management & staff plus the many LT holders

Positive forward outlook with both Fonterra & Synlait onboard this bus heading to new highs

Today's SP may be the new norm ........... who knows !

MY THOUGHTS MAYBE CORRECT ?

The company has revised its outlook for FY19 and now expects revenue growth in 2H19 to continue broadly in line with the first half.

GS

ATM.Price Target: NZ$16.50
A2M.Price Target: A$15.70

May not be a good day for SHORTERS but excellent luck for holders ...........

[winner69]

MY THOUGHTS MAYBE CORRECT ?

The company has revised its outlook for FY19 and now expects revenue growth in 2H19 to continue broadly in line with the first half.

GS

ATM.Price Target: NZ$16.50
A2M.Price Target: A$15.70

May not be a good day for SHORTERS but excellent luck for holders ...........

No luck here dreamcatcher ....just good Investing

[BigBob]

I can do slightly better at 50c entry and the avg price of my shares at 55.8c. Got any holders here with a smaller average price? #notsothinnlyveiledhumblebrag

Well, my first and largest parcel was bought at 55c and I have been "free holding" (and some) since the mid $1.80s... Very happy long term holder... ☺️

[777]

So what are they trading at now? Screwed up numbers on DB.

[silu]

So what are they trading at now? Screwed up numbers on DB.

$14.40 so the all-time high is near

[minimoke]

so what are they trading at now? Screwed up numbers on db.$13.93 aud = nzd $14.55

[see weed]

A2 will be the talk of the town in next few days and in tomorrows papers. shareholders will tell their friends and family and other new punters will want a piece of the a2cowpie. Sp could shoot up even more with all this news. It came in a couple of waves last time.:):t_up:
The second wave:t_up::D:cool::t_up:

[minimoke]

now aud 13.99

Edit $14.03 (= NZD $14.66 a new all time high)