ATM - A2 Milk Corporation Limited

[Balance]

now aud 13.99

Edit $14.03 (= NZD $14.66 a new all time high)

Panic short coverings.

Will be up at least another dollar before they are ‘de-stressed’ From their margin calls.

Burn, Baby, Burn!

[minimoke]

There we go. NZD $14.65 on the delayed Direct Broking sight. New all time high confirmed

[Beagle]

Congrats to holders. I think the risk reward is too tough at this level but good luck to you all.

[Ggcc]

Great one for us all. Maybe this week I may earn my whole years salary woohoo

[minimoke]

Congrats to holders. I think the risk reward is too tough at this level but good luck to you all.The last few months has seem more de-risking.

China (despite media fears) seems more assured.

More product supply coming on stream via Fonterra and Synlait.

More research coming out supporting A2 as a health option

Gaining traction in the USA.

Wont be a surprise when Herdlicker sells

Still got a $288m war chest (+31m shares in Synlait which has increased $1 a share since then))

[minimoke]

Note to self: STOP HITTING THE REFRESH KEY. Now at $14.82

[allfromacell]

So the short-man data from yesterday shows 30% of the volume was shorter activity. Therefore even if all that was short covering we are still looking at 35M+shorts open.

[couta1]

Congrats to holders. I think the risk reward is too tough at this level but good luck to you all. That's why you should always have a good feed at a Banquet.Lol

[bull....]

that breakout from the range has unleashed the pent up fury at being caged so long haha :t_up:

[hardt]

What we got last year was an amazing result followed by analyst upgrade after analyst upgrade.

Let's hope they don't over do it again and leave A2 performing excellently while still unable to meet expectations.

[BigBob]

In my view they are either trading in a channel between roughly $9 and $14 (and just bounced back from the top) - or alternatively you could see their latest peak as forming a double top with their heights in March 2018 (which would be a more bearish signal)..

How's your double top looking now...?

Maybe you called it a bit early, but then prediction is indeed very difficult, especially about the future... ;-)

[Lewylewylewy]

TA is only useful to predict behavior in the absence of real information. The analysis might not have been wrong in a blinkered scenario, without the reporting it may have been the correct call

[Baa_Baa]

TA is only useful to predict behavior in the absence of real information. The analysis might not have been wrong in a blinkered scenario, without the reporting it may have been the correct call]

Understandable response from someone who knows nothing about TA. No offense intended, but ATM is and has been a TA's dream stock. Not perfectly predictable but very close to perfect. Simple stuff, trendlines, breakouts, standard indicators, it's screamed basic TA for ages. Still does.

[Patient Panda]

Has any scientific research been conducted on the efficacy of TA? I have never seen any but would be keen to give a few papers a read if they exist.

[Snow Leopard]

...but ATM is and has been a TA's dream stock. Not perfectly predictable but very close to perfect. Simple stuff, trendlines, breakouts, standard indicators, it's screamed basic TA for ages. Still does.

It is always nice when the movement of share prices randomly aligns into patterns that keep the TA's happy. :)

[Snow Leopard]

Has any scientific research been conducted on the efficacy of TA? I have never seen any but would be keen to give a few papers a read if they exist.

There are papers that proves it works and there are papers that proves it doesn't.

[Sideshow Bob]

https://www.odt.co.nz/rural-life/dairy/fonterra-begins-signing-suppliers-a2-production

[Lewylewylewy]

Prior to information being provided via announcements Tealeaf Analysis is useful because with no new company information to go on, all you can do is make educated guesses or read market analysis through trades. Once you have actual information, you are better positioned to apply a valuation on the business and should no longer be basing your valuation on previously uninformed trades because that would be the action of a moron, no offense intended.

[BlackPeter]

How's your double top looking now...?

Maybe you called it a bit early, but then prediction is indeed very difficult, especially about the future... ;-)

Well, there was a double peak and short after a gap and a breakout. These things happen. TA patterns are not a perfect working crystal ball, but neither is any other technique. Which method do you use? Are you always right?

[BigBob]

Well, there was a double peak and short after a gap and a breakout. These things happen. TA patterns are not a perfect working crystal ball, but neither is any other technique. Which method do you use? Are you always right?

I use basic TA, with a bit of FA and input from my gutometer, and of course I am not always right - I wouldn't be on this board if I were...

I also saw the two peaks etc, but I interpreted it as a third attempt at breaching the top was on the cards. Amongst my considerations were the ASX chart where the tops were less prominent, the impending results announcement and the massive short interest, which would surely be squeezed if the results were good - which they were... 😁

Of course, if the results had disappointed, you would have had your double top...

[see weed]

The second wave:t_up::D:cool::t_up:
There could be a 3rd, 4th, and 5th wave before it hits $16. And before the shorters start again. This little down this morning will be good for anyone who missed out.

[Bjauck]

ATM has been a good story for the NZ share market and a very good long term investment for me but it grew to dominate my portfolio. It has weathered market access challenges in the past, but I am out of my depth in analysing the intricacies of its value (so is my sharebroker too I think!) and business. After long contemplation I sold 1/2 of my holding yesterday. Time now to think about a dividend yielding replacement investment.

[minimoke]

ATM has been a good story for the NZ share market and a very good long term investment for me but it grew to dominate my portfolio. It has weathered market access challenges in the past, but I am out of my depth in analysing the intricacies of its value and business. After long contemplation I sold 1/2 of my holding. Time now to think about a dividend yielding replacement investment.Thats part of my plan - but not for another 5 or so years. In the meantime I'm prepared to ride the risk

[sb9]

Another interview with Jayne on yourmoney show across the ditch.

https://www.yourmoney.com.au/shows/ticky/ticky-february-20-2019/

Enjoy...

[winner69]

Remember — A2 won’t becometge next Daone in a day

[allfromacell]

Another interview with Jayne on yourmoney show across the ditch.

https://www.yourmoney.com.au/shows/ticky/ticky-february-20-2019/

Enjoy...

I get a geoblock. Where are you watching from?

[Lewylewylewy]

Apologies if this has already been shared or mentioned:
https://www.odt.co.nz/rural-life/dairy/fonterra-begins-signing-suppliers-a2-production

[winner69]

I see US sales are only a paltry NZ$23m for half year (say v Australia of $400m plus)

Just imagine what the number will be in a few years as A2 gets more coverage / acceptance.

[allfromacell]

I see US sales are only a paltry NZ$23m for half year (say v Australia of $400m plus)

Just imagine what the number will be in a few years as A2 gets more coverage / acceptance.

Nice to see Jayne and co doubling down on the marketing budget too. The marketing team is really talented at ATM so I expect lots more growth to come.

[Balance]

I see US sales are only a paltry NZ$23m for half year (say v Australia of $400m plus)

Just imagine what the number will be in a few years as A2 gets more coverage / acceptance.

ATM just needs to target the Asian market over there first - 20m+ population who will happily embrace ATM when they become aware of its inherent goodness for lactose intolerant Asian stomachs!

[BlackPeter]

ATM just needs to target the Asian market over there first - 20m+ population who will happily embrace ATM when they become aware of its inherent goodness for lactose intolerant Asian stomachs!

A2 does not help with lactose intolerance ... but it does help people who have issues to digest A1-milk.

And while there seem to be less people with Chinese roots (compared e.g. to Caucasians) able to digest milk as grown ups (given it was not part of their normal diet, there was never natural selection towards this attribute) am I not sure, whether I have seen any evidence that "Asian stomachs" are less able to process A1 milk than other population groups. Have you?

[Balance]

A2 does not help with lactose intolerance ... but it does help people who have issues to digest A1-milk.

And while there seem to be less people with Chinese roots (compared e.g. to Caucasians) able to digest milk as grown ups (given it was not part of their normal diet, there was never natural selection towards this attribute) am I not sure, whether I have seen any evidence that "Asian stomachs" are less able to process A1 milk than other population groups. Have you?

I have, and one big reason why I bought into ATM.

And I can tell you that Asian business contacts of mine (Chinese, Koreans and Japanese) and their families are drinking milk again with A2M after having problems with milk before.

Forget about scientific proof - that to me is as real as it will ever get.

But here's a link fyi about lactose intolerance in Asians :

http://kore.am/why-most-east-asians-are-lactose-intolerant/

[Balance]

And for those who are wondering why Fonterra is fast-tracking its program to convert its farmers from A1 to A2 milk, I strongly recommend you take the time to talk to a dairy farmer.

I talked to one and Fonterra, along with its scientists, had been talking selectively to its farmer groups about various matters regarding A2 - in part to head off the aggro from farmers as to how Fonterra with its multi-million R&D scientists and boffins could have missed the A2 opportunity.

The farmer alerted me to another medical factor which is being researched with A1 vs A2 - if proven, A1 is HISTORY!

[whome]

Sold all A2 last week. The 16 foot Bonito gets a motor upgrade to a nice 90hp Merc I have found. Boat name is ME2ATEE. I should rename it ATM2ME. My 1st foray into A2 was at 9 cents, and I sold at 15 cents - thought I was Christmas. This time feels good too. Will now sit out H2 and let the shorters go to it and set the new sp channel limits, and give herdlicker time to upset all again - this is why we won’t see another XRO. Intend to buy on the dips as I want to partake in the 1:5 split when sp reaches $20, as flagged by Beagle a year ago. Thanks to all posters on ST. Many a time you have caused me to stop and reassess my own research.

[Balance]

Sold all A2 last week. The 16 foot Bonito gets a motor upgrade to a nice 90hp Merc I have found. Boat name is ME2ATEE. I should rename it ATM2ME. My 1st foray into A2 was at 9 cents, and I sold at 15 cents - thought I was Christmas. This time feels good too. Will now sit out H2 and let the shorters go to it and set the new sp channel limits, and give herdlicker time to upset all again - this is why we won’t see another XRO. Intend to buy on the dips as I want to partake in the 1:5 split when sp reaches $20, as flagged by Beagle a year ago. Thanks to all posters on ST. Many a time you have caused me to stop and reassess my own research.

Congratulations and well done!

Enjoy your boating & fishing!

[Leftfield]

.......And while there seem to be less people with Chinese roots (compared e.g. to Caucasians) able to digest milk as grown ups (given it was not part of their normal diet, there was never natural selection towards this attribute) am I not sure, whether I have seen any evidence that "Asian stomachs" are less able to process A1 milk than other population groups. Have you?


Yes I have seen evidence. A2 completed in depth research on asian tummy with a sample of 1000. But it is not just asian tummy that struggle with A1. Any country such as Greece, Persia, India, Pakistan where there has been a history (and genetic adaption) of goat, sheep and buffalo milk finds that there are issues with A1. DYOR.

In addition in post 12231 I detailed recent research on a huge sample that stated....

"Of the 5,535 adults, 2,876 either had a professional diagnosis of IBS or considered that they had IBS. Those who reported that alleviating IBS symptoms was their primary reason for buying a2 Milk™ (862/5,335) completed a series of questions specific to this condition. It was remarkable to record that 83% of the cohort had experienced an improvement in their IBS symptoms after changing from conventional to a2 Milk™"

The recent moves by Frontera merely add to the growing acceptance that A1 milk is flawed.

[Leftfield]

And even Forbes magazine is reporting on A2's progress in USA (https://www.forbes.com/sites/chloesorvino/2019/02/19/deals-with-kroger-walmart-and-costco-fuel-us-growth-of-a2-milk-company/?utm_source=FBPAGE&utm_medium=social&utm_content=2145444336&utm_campaign=sprinklrForbesMainFB#693ef2816a0f)

It's going to be an interesting day when/if the advertising claim challenge by part of the USA Diary industry re A2 reaches the courts (if ever.) In the meantime, USA consumers a voting with their tummy's.

[dreamcatcher]

Barchart opinion 96% BUY for a2

https://www.barchart.com/stocks/quotes/a2m.AX/opinion

SHORTS for 20th & 21st be interesting on Shortman

[BlackPeter]

Barchart opinion 96% BUY for a2

https://www.barchart.com/stocks/quotes/a2m.AX/opinion

SHORTS for 20th & 21st be interesting on Shortman

LOL - have a look at their methodology - its basically - Price goes up: BUY! Price goes down - SELL!

With other words - they propose to buy dear and sell cheap ;);

[couta1]

Barchart opinion 96% BUY for a2

https://www.barchart.com/stocks/quotes/a2m.AX/opinion

SHORTS for 20th & 21st be interesting on Shortman Shorts still a plenty so I'm weary of buying back another large parcel at this point, plenty of scope for a price drop over the next few weeks.

[minimoke]

And even Forbes magazine is reporting on A2's progress in USA (https://www.forbes.com/sites/chloesorvino/2019/02/19/deals-with-kroger-walmart-and-costco-fuel-us-growth-of-a2-milk-company/?utm_source=FBPAGE&utm_medium=social&utm_content=2145444336&utm_campaign=sprinklrForbesMainFB#693ef2816a0f)

It's going to be an interesting day when/if the advertising claim challenge by part of the USA Diary industry re A2 reaches the courts (if ever.) In the meantime, USA consumers a voting with their tummy's.And we are only talking about the commodity milk. Imagine when they get into cheeses and yoghurts!

(Must check to see what processing plant Synlait has just bought - hint hint)

[BlackPeter]

And we are only talking about the commodity milk. Imagine when they get into cheeses and yoghurts!

(Must check to see what processing plant Synlait has just bought - hint hint)

Though might be worthwhile to check which part of their margin is made with baby formula (hint: >80%) and which with liquid milk - not to forget cheese and yoghurt ...

I think the sales price of 1kg A2 Platinum is around NZD50. Just remind me what one kg of cheese or a handful of litres of milk or some yoghurts would bring ...

[Sideshow Bob]

Page 5.

https://issuu.com/farmersweeklynz/docs/fw_25-02_issuu/1?ff&e=30768707/67928932

(Also front page on Synlait and milk pricing)

[dabsman]

Hi all - what are the chances of a dividend this year? Sitting on a lot of cash and surely cant use all?

[minimoke]

Hi all - what are the chances of a dividend this year? Sitting on a lot of cash and surely cant use all?Not high. I reckon another decent acquisition into a market is a better spend of the loot. (locally, westland dairy could do with a backer)

[Ggcc]

it seems the price seems to keep rising slowly which is great. Feeling for those shorters, as I know when prices kept falling we kept quiet. Now prices rising we are putting them down. We all just want to make a buck, especially me of course 😊

[couta1]

it seems the price seems to keep rising slowly which is great. Feeling for those shorters, as I know when prices kept falling we kept quiet. Now prices rising we are putting them down. We all just want to make a buck, especially me of course  Price looks pretty much topped to me, shorters exiting in an orderly manner, no real panic, many must be waiting for any bit of negative sentiment to arrive in any form.

[dreamcatcher]

Check SHORTMAN the first of the big days now showing 20th,21st,22nd to follow, shorts were @ 5.31% or 39m outstanding. The two lines already together a world of pain ........... now for them to make a buck the price needs to rise so the game starts again

Believe two A2M investor days happened in March last year with Synlait reporting between. My thoughts are this has plenty more to run until shorters finish buying ........... ouch

All of course imo

[allfromacell]

Price looks pretty much topped to me, shorters exiting in an orderly manner, no real panic, many must be waiting for any bit of negative sentiment to arrive in any form.


The ASX closed down just shy of 1% today while A2M closed at what I think was an all time high closing price. With over 35M shorts still open I wouldn't be surprised to see this run further while big volume buying continues.

The fundamentals are just so good, everything is lining up perfectly. Most of us were expecting a good result but very few expected it to be quite as great as it was.

[Baa_Baa]

The ASX closed down just shy of 1% today while A2M closed at what I think was an all time high closing price. With over 35M shorts still open I wouldn't be surprised to see this run further while big volume buying continues.

The fundamentals are just so good, everything is lining up perfectly. Most of us were expecting a good result but very few expected it to be quite as great as it was.

Two short (pun) days testing the all time high breakout, if it goes up .. you'll smell the shorts burning.

[Patient Panda]

Hi all - what are the chances of a dividend this year? Sitting on a lot of cash and surely cant use all?


I think extremely low. Far too many good opportunities that have higher returns with ATM investing them than for the vast majority of investors/other businesses.

[longy]

The ASX closed down just shy of 1% today while A2M closed at what I think was an all time high closing price. With over 35M shorts still open I wouldn't be surprised to see this run further while big volume buying continues.

The fundamentals are just so good, everything is lining up perfectly. Most of us were expecting a good result but very few expected it to be quite as great as it was.

Just out of curiosity where did you get the 35M number from? Thx

[dreamcatcher]

Just out of curiosity where did you get the 35M number from? Thx

Runs 4 days behind

https://www.shortman.com.au/stock?q=a2m

[dreamcatcher]

Aussie yesterdays close A$14.11 @ .9592 = NZ$14.71 ......................

[couta1]

Aussie yesterdays close A$14.11 @ .9592 = NZ$14.71 ...................... Not looking like a good open on the Aussie at the moment.

[allfromacell]

BAL released a shocker this morning which will unjustifiably rub off on A2. One of the reasons mentioned for poor performance was "Observed slowercategory growth andbirth-rate in China, andincreased local supplyfrom competitors", perhaps they should have just said ATM is eating everyone's lunch.

[BlackPeter]

Chinese baby trend pointing into the wrong direction (this is, if you want to sell more infant formula into China):


Fewer babies were born in China last year than in 2017, and already fewer had been born in 2017 than in 2016. There were 15.23 million new births in 2018, down by more than 11 percent from the year before. The authorities had predicted that easing and then abolishing the one-child policy in the mid-2010s would trigger a baby boom; it’s been more like a baby bust.

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/02/26/opinion/china-isnt-having-enough-babies.html

Apparantly - the removal of the one child policy came to late ... not anymore enough fertile females around to change the trend ...

[minimoke]

Chinese baby trend pointing into the wrong direction (this is, if you want to sell more infant formula into China):



https://www.nytimes.com/2019/02/26/opinion/china-isnt-having-enough-babies.html

Apparantly - the removal of the one child policy came to late ... not anymore enough fertile females around to change the trend ..."Low fertility has its benefits. Fewer children probably means that more attention is paid to them, including in the form of more investment in education." It also means they can afford premium, safe, tummy happy milk powder during those all important formative years of their dear darling babies growth.

[BlackPeter]

"Low fertility has its benefits. Fewer children probably means that more attention is paid to them, including in the form of more investment in education." It also means they can afford premium, safe, tummy happy milk powder during those all important formative years of their dear darling babies growth.

True - but this is not new. China went already through 2 generations of one child families. What is changing now is that overall the number of families with babies is drastically dropping (11% less babies in one year is drastic ....), but some of them might have now more than only one child, which means these multiple child families have even less money available to buy luxuries like infant formula coming from the other side of the globe ...

[minimoke]

True - but this is not new. China went already through 2 generations of one child families. What is changing now is that overall the number of families with babies is drastically dropping (11% less babies in one year is drastic ....), but some of them might have now more than only one child, which means these multiple child families have even less money available to buy luxuries like infant formula coming from the other side of the globe ...
The Chinese are no different from any one else on this front.

If a parent sees it as vitally important for the health and wellbeing of their child they will sacrifice near anything to give the child the best. So if A2 is on the mind of the chinese parent they will find a way of funding the purchase. (maybe its seen as an investment in the future - where a healthy child / children will be in a much better position to support their aging parents in later life)

[winner69]

Many cashing up on exercise of cheap options

Hope not another round of punters being disgruntled and saying these people are disloyal

They deserve every dollar of there new found wealth ...but seem to be good at picking highs

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/331241

[BlackPeter]

Many cashing up on exercise of cheap options

Hope not another round of punters being disgruntled and saying these people are disloyal

They deserve every dollar of there new found wealth ...but seem to be good at picking highs

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/331241

Not sure about cause and effect - are they just good at picking highs or are their actions just creating these highs by turning the trend downwards after the act?

BTW - what happened with Jane - she would not hold these days, wouldn't she?

[winner69]

Not sure about cause and effect - are they just good at picking highs or are their actions just creating these highs by turning the trend downwards after the act?

BTW - what happened with Jane - she would not hold these days, wouldn't she?

Jane wasn’t round when these 63 cent options were handed out

[BlackPeter]

Jane wasn’t round when these 63 cent options were handed out

Of course, you are right ...

And yes - interesting ... I guess if I hold a really cheap high confidence share, than why would I sell all or a substantial number of them as soon as I am able to cash in my options? Is this lack of business acumen - or do they know something other punters don't? Both options seem to be concerning ...

[allfromacell]

Of course, you are right ...

And yes - interesting ... I guess if I hold a really cheap high confidence share, than why would I sell all or a substantial number of them as soon as I am able to cash in my options? Is this lack of business acumen - or do they know something other punters don't? Both options seem to be concerning ...

You can argue it's prudent capital management. This is a significant amount of ones wealth to have invested in the company that pays you. It's also a relatively risky growth stock albeit is getting less risky by the day.

[nzsharetrade]

building deck again?

[Beagle]

Ms Herdlicker has previously stated, (some would say rather arrogantly) she will look to sell further shares shortly after they vest in her name. Just gives you such "wonderful confidence" in the new CEO doesn't it !

[hogie]

Meh ... maybe she's just not the share holder type ... some people just don't enjoy the thrill :)

[couta1]

Ms Herdlicker has previously stated, (some would say rather arrogantly) she will look to sell further shares shortly after they vest in her name. Just gives you such "wonderful confidence" in the new CEO doesn't it ! Not till around August for the Herd woman apparently.

[nzsharetrade]

Ms Herdlicker has previously stated, (some would say rather arrogantly) she will look to sell further shares shortly after they vest in her name. Just gives you such "wonderful confidence" in the new CEO doesn't it !

Haaha, I am not worried about her atm. she does have anything to sell yet. others.............from her team.

[dreamcatcher]

Well now Feb MSCI index changes and gap filled @NZ14.22 no point in SP hanging around here. Still 32m shorts showing outstanding on 22nd and Synlaits results yet to come ............. not a good time for shorters !!

Any March investor shows as last year with strategic news regarding partners Forterra & Synlait will move SP positively skywards.

all imo

[whatsup]

Another sale of an exc, not a good look even if flagger imo.

[dreamcatcher]

Another sale of an exc, not a good look even if flagger imo.

Personally see nothing wrong with exc taking some profit as that is the goal of working

[whatsup]

Personally see nothing wrong with exc taking some profit as that is the goal of working

IN most U S companies there is a "window " for exs to sell their shares twice a year so that any selling by them does not upset the market by investors trying to second guess the reasons for them selling, it would be a worthwhile procedure for the NZX to introduce here.

[winner69]

IN most U S companies there is a "window " for exs to sell their shares twice a year so that any selling by them does not upset the market by investors trying to second guess the reasons for them selling, it would be a worthwhile procedure for the NZX to introduce here.

There are many rules about company directors and staff buying and selling shares

Attached are the A2 rules ...includes black out periods

https://thea2milkcompany.com/wp-content/uploads/Security-Trading-Policy-June-2018.pdf

[allfromacell]

"No buys backs or dividends in the near future". I guess they've found something to do with all that cash, can't wait to hear.

https://www.nabtrade.com.au/investor/insights/meet-the-executive/news/2019/03/the_a2_milk_company

[minimoke]

Another sale of an exc, not a good look even if flagger imo.
Ex CEO. Good up on him. He'e earnt the right to get some cash

[dreamcatcher]

BOOM!! that 180,000 @ A$14.00...............went in one bite :t_up:

[minimoke]

BOOM!! that 180,000 @ A$14.00...............went in one bite :t_up:$14.00 is within the trading range over the past four weeks,

Edit. nice to see 309,000 cross at $14.40 on close

[dreamcatcher]

BOOM !! .................... 25c wiped in one bite :eek2:

[JohnnyTheHorse]

Looks to be trying to break out. If resistance breaks at ASX 14.25 then I'd expect a quick rise up as large number of remaining shorts panic cover.

[NZSilver]

15+ here we come?

[minimoke]

15+ here we come?
Can't be far away. $14.69 at the moment. 12 month high is $14.85

[sb9]

Another interview with Jayne as per link below, hope there's no geo-blocking on this one

https://www.nabtrade.com.au/investor/insights/meet-the-executive/news/2019/03/the_a2_milk_company

[see weed]

The second wave:t_up::D:cool::t_up:
The third wave:cool:.

[limmy]

Another interview with Jayne as per link below, hope there's no geo-blocking on this one

https://www.nabtrade.com.au/investor/insights/meet-the-executive/news/2019/03/the_a2_milk_company
Good interview

[peat]

Another interview with Jayne as per link below, hope there's no geo-blocking on this one

https://www.nabtrade.com.au/investor/insights/meet-the-executive/news/2019/03/the_a2_milk_company

great link cheers
she's pretty slick I reckon, talkin up the brand a storm.
and banging on about a unique connection with customers. wow. quite the religious experience

I wonder does anyone know if she sold airline seats this way
refer Jetstar thread.

[couta1]

The third wave:cool:. Haha does that mean we have an outgoing tide tomorrow.

[Balance]

Another interview with Jayne as per link below, hope there's no geo-blocking on this one

https://www.nabtrade.com.au/investor/insights/meet-the-executive/news/2019/03/the_a2_milk_company

How could you not like this class act of a lady, eh?

She made available the greatest buying opportunity in recent times in September 2018 by selling her shares and gave all and sundry the chance to get ATM stock at under $10.00!

In fact, as low as $9.00.

And for her act of generosity, she was swore at, decried, cursed and if there was a chance, would have been fired from the company!

BUT those who partook are now sitting on gains of up to 50%+, how could anyone not love her?

You gotta love this game that is investing!

[sb9]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/entertainment/news/article.cfm?c_id=1501119&objectid=12208586

Another piece of pretty low standard of journalism from NZ herald, not sure what their motive here. We all knew that info from ASM last year.

[mondograss]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/entertainment/news/article.cfm?c_id=1501119&objectid=12208586

Another piece of pretty low standard of journalism from NZ herald, not sure what their motive here. We all knew that info from ASM last year.

Well it is filed under Entertainment. So that says a lot.

[sb9]

Well it is filed under Entertainment. So that says a lot.

Lol, that's true.

Looks like shorts are desperate cover over on ASX which is pushing price on both NZX and ASX to new highs. And with upcoming index rebalance later this month its widely tipped that A2M might be included in ASX 50 Index.

[LegendOfRiot]

How often do the ASX50 index rebalances happen, and what criteria does it take to qualify?

[couta1]

How often do the ASX50 index rebalances happen, and what criteria does it take to qualify? Every quarter and quite a few criteria other than just market cap.

[Balance]

Lol, that's true.

Looks like shorts are desperate cover over on ASX which is pushing price on both NZX and ASX to new highs. And with upcoming index rebalance later this month its widely tipped that A2M might be included in ASX 50 Index.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LCnebZnysmI

:D :D :D

It's BURN!

[couta1]

It doesn't look like ATM will upset Qantas to take a place in the ASX 50 this time, maybe in June.

[nzsharetrade]

It doesn't look like ATM will upset Qantas to take a place in the ASX 50 this time, maybe in June.


Are you sure? Jayne will sell all her shares in June............

[couta1]

Are you sure? Jayne will sell all her shares in June............ I think that's around August.

[peat]

I was wandering central Wellington yesterday and a woman standing next to a radio station marked vehicle tried to give me some A2 milk !

[Mr T]

ZM and Anchor doing a promo at the moment

https://www.zmonline.com/win/guess-what-bels-making-and-win-with-a2-milk/

[Sideshow Bob]

ZM and Anchor doing a promo at the moment

https://www.zmonline.com/win/guess-what-bels-making-and-win-with-a2-milk/

Fonterra probably looking for any good news. Jumping on and then pumping the A2 bandwagon 10 years too late......

[whatsup]

Count down for $15 when will that be ?

[Balance]

Count down for $15 when will that be ?

Today as the shorters panic that Jayne has yet to sell her shares!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_3eC35LoF4U

At last update, 20m shares have been covered at ever bigger losses for the shorters - ouch!

[see weed]

Count down for $15 when will that be ?
Maybe this afternoon;).

[whatsup]

Count down for $15 when will that be ?

$15.00 gone, great day for shareholders !,, well done.

[Drummer]

I missed it.....looks like day high is $15, cannot cut&paste here

[couta1]

I've only a few left since yesterday and as I dont think it will make it into the ASX 50 this time there will be downward pressure on the SP in due course, reckon it will retreat back to around $13.80-$14, in the mean time I'm keeping myself amused with a certain other milky one.

[Baa_Baa]

Nothing new but pretty amazing reminder Investor Presentation - USA 6-8 March (http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/ATM/331558/296317.pdf)

[silu]

Nothing new but pretty amazing reminder Investor Presentation - USA 6-8 March (http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/ATM/331558/296317.pdf)

Every time I'm tempted to sell I'm reminded of what if we can replicate the success in Australia/China in the USA and/or are successful in selling value added product like cheese and then my mouse slowly moves away from the Sell button.

[winner69]

Every time I'm tempted to sell I'm reminded of what if we can replicate the success in Australia/China in the USA and/or are successful in selling value added product like cheese and then my mouse slowly moves away from the Sell button.

Yes indeed .....just remember A2 won’t become the next Daone in a day

Surprised it appears as if Couts has bailed

[sb9]

Every time I'm tempted to sell I'm reminded of what if we can replicate the success in Australia/China in the USA and/or are successful in selling value added product like cheese and then my mouse slowly moves away from the Sell button.

US market penetration is one of key reasons that BOD went very keenly after Jayne's appointment as CEO. And she's putting those plans into actions by having investor presentation in the US.

[silu]

US market penetration is one of key reasons that BOD went very keenly after Jayne's appointment as CEO. And she's putting those plans into actions by having investor presentation in the US.

I have always been impressed by Jayne's communication and presentation skills, traits I think will serve her well in the USA.

[couta1]

Bit of exuberance on open(Probably from a few punters who got a rush from the investor presentation)

[silu]

Bit of exuberance on open(Probably from a few punters who got a rush from the investor presentation)

Do you still share this exuberance?

[winner69]

There’s somebody in A2 (or one of their advisors) whose well connected and doing a fantastic job in getting these spots in the media. Been doing it for a while now. Good on them

And Jayne does well ....she’s a star

[couta1]

Do you still share this exuberance? For sure long term but it's run hard and I don't see any reason for it to go any higher and plenty of reasons for it to move downward over the next while.

[Balance]

I have always been impressed by Jayne's communication and presentation skills, traits I think will serve her well in the USA.

Roadshow in the US will bring new investors for sure - the yanks love high PER & high growth stocks.

Just need one or two to unleash some decent size orders (say, US$100m) and we will see $16.50 real soon.

[Balance]

Bit of exuberance on open(Probably from a few punters who got a rush from the investor presentation)

Suggest someone knows there are BIG orders coming from US?

[Sideshow Bob]

Suggest someone knows there are BIG orders coming from US?

To buy on the ASX, not NZX.....

[dreamcatcher]

I agree a2 likely to increase to $16 or higher on any extra positive news like investor presentations or SML result and their current expansions. Also the fact we still have 30m odd Shorters desperately trying to close and fighting for shares against new investors........ and they MUST go.

[sb9]

Suggest someone knows there are BIG orders coming from US?

Certainly does seem so going by trading pattern on NZX. Think US orders may be channelled thro' ASX.

[minimoke]

I've only a few left since yesterday and as I dont think it will make it into the ASX 50 this time there will be downward pressure on the SP in due course, reckon it will retreat back to around $13.80-$14, in the mean time I'm keeping myself amused with a certain other milky one.Looks like you timed that very nicely. Well done!

[winner69]

Jayne busy today ....with quite a few International Women's Day committments

[dreamcatcher]

SHORTMAN'S latest update - how do you close 29.4m shorts without pushing SP higher ............... answer very painfully financially.

Investor presentations will create more buying interest.

[Saffer]

I've only a few left since yesterday and as I dont think it will make it into the ASX 50 this time there will be downward pressure on the SP in due course, reckon it will retreat back to around $13.80-$14, in the mean time I'm keeping myself amused with a certain other milky one.
KTD is seeing some action lately.

[Leftfield]

I agree a2 likely to increase to $16 or higher on any extra positive news like investor presentations or SML result and their current expansions. Also the fact we still have 30m odd Shorters desperately trying to close and fighting for shares against new investors........ and they MUST go.

Nice to take a break recently , even nicer to return to an ATM SP in the $14 range, about $2.00 up from when I left. Nice to be invested in the worlds leading diary disrupter.

It all begs the Q where too from here? Should one continue to hold or take some profits?

10384

Projecting this graph from ATM’s recent Nth American investor presentation, I reckon that FY19 revenue will reach circa $NZ1.3 to 1.4 billion and EPS of about 45c per share. At PE of 35 the projected ATM SP could be $NZ 15.75 ( for rough comparison FPH PE is currently 41.8, SML = 25 )


For FY 20, all things being equal, it is likely that revenue growth may slow to about 40%pa which could translate to EPS of circa .63c. So .63c x 30 = SP $NZ18.9 or $22.05 (at PE of 35.) So next year with a bit of luck and a tail wind ATM could reach $NZ20 (approx 30 to 40% above current levels. )

Then there is always the potential of an ATM takeover (or sale of a strategic stake) to force the price up more quickly. Nestle, Unilever and Coke etc must all be taking note. So I’m holding as methinks it is still early days for this diary disrupter.

Just my thoughts DYOR and GLH.

[Sideshow Bob]

Public holiday in many States in Oz today - so maybe not too much action over there.

[mondograss]

Public holiday in many States in Oz today - so maybe not too much action over there.

Labour Day only for Vic and Tas.

[Lewylewylewy]

Where to from here? Atm usa expansion is interesting. I wonder if they'll get tied up in legals long enough for local suppliers to catch up with a2 herds, if they'll be stymied by lobbyists, or if they'll knock it out the park.

[Balance]

https://www.shortman.com.au/stock?q=a2m

Shorts will determine where ATM sp moves to next, I reckon and it's looking like it's headed higher.

Number of shorts (29m) today down to where they were in October 2018 - 20m covered at what must be horrendous losses as the sp moved from around A$9.50 to recent highs of $14.00.

So will shorters try to 'game' ATM sp again?

More likely the remaining shorts are hoping like hell for Jayne to sell so they can get relief - so stock is underpinned by short covering activity in the next few months at least.

[dreamcatcher]

https://www.shortman.com.au/stock?q=a2m

Shorts will determine where ATM sp moves to next, I reckon and it's looking like it's headed higher.

Number of shorts (29m) today down to where they were in October 2018 - 20m covered at what must be horrendous losses as the sp moved from around A$9.50 to recent highs of $14.00.

So will shorters try to 'game' ATM sp again?

More likely the remaining shorts are hoping like hell for Jayne to sell so they can get relief - so stock is underpinned by short covering activity in the next few months at least.

Shorts been 4 days behind with roll over around 3pm daily my estimate of Short positions are approx 25m remaining and as they diminish so does their power. Yesterday was a part holiday in aussie. Probably some buying still to come from recent Investor Day and any weakness in SP be top up time for many. Didn't sell many in last rise and moved small amount to sell at high $15's as gut says heading even higher. Report from SML and next Chinese shopping extravaganza on 618 June 18th with Shorts still closing will all be fuel for the fire..............

[Leftfield]

Where to from here? Atm usa expansion is interesting. I wonder if they'll get tied up in legals long enough for local suppliers to catch up with a2 herds, if they'll be stymied by lobbyists, or if they'll knock it out the park.

After I saw the recently released ATM research with a sample size of 5000 that showed something like 80% plus benefit from reduced tummy problems with A2, (trusting my memory on this research so please DYOR) I thought Yay! ATM are gonna win the USA case........ however reality is legal challenges are seldom black or white... always shades of grey..... and seldom fast. Think Samsung v Apple. This could take ages.

That said, the whole debate and legal cases/appeals etc should help awareness of ATM and grow the USA market for them.

Can't help thinking Jane's recent USA investors update is all part of the strategy to fight this case. Someone suggested a possible USA listing...... wouldn't that be fun!

[dreamcatcher]

Goldman estimates that a2 Milk Company’s sales on the platforms grew 89% on the prior corresponding period and stole share away from Mead Johnson and Danone

Today's SP action may be last desperate attempt to close Shorts before SP pushes higher. My thoughts that a2 was under priced appears correct imo with price target now .............GS BUY RATING NZ $16.50 & A$15.99

https://www.fool.com.au/2019/03/13/should-you-buy-a2-milk-company-and-2-other-china-focused-asx-shares/

[Leftfield]

Goldman estimates that a2 Milk Company’s sales on the platforms grew 89% on the prior corresponding period and stole share away from Mead Johnson and Danone

Today's SP action may be last desperate attempt to close Shorts before SP pushes higher. My thoughts that a2 was under priced appears correct imo with price target now .............GS BUY RATING NZ $16.50 & A$15.99

https://www.fool.com.au/2019/03/13/should-you-buy-a2-milk-company-and-2-other-china-focused-asx-shares/

Yee ha!! Nicely supports/exceeds my rough valuations as per post #12631. :t_up:

[Sideshow Bob]

Crash back through $14.00 ;)

[freebee]

I suspect some profit taking and dropping it across to SML

[Leftfield]

I suspect some profit taking and dropping it across to SML My thoughts as well...... all good stuff for the traders. (I'm not one.... prefer long term tax free gains.)

Meanwhile, news of Nestle stepping into A2 fresh milk in Sth America (https://www.foodprocessing-technology.com/comment/20668/)

[RupertBear]

Grabbed me some at $14.04 thinking $14.00 might hold....wrong....;)

[Leftfield]

Grabbed me some at $14.04 thinking $14.00 might hold....wrong....;)

TA indicates a possible short term fall back to the gap between $A12.75 and $A13.00 (approx $NZ13.20 to $13.50 ) that may need to get filled before the SP moves higher. See the red line on this pic.

10395

That said and done the TA is then looking favourable, golden cross and all that. FA also looking good according to Goldman Sachs...So be patient.

However some think TA is rubbish so DYOR. JMHO.

[RGR367]

My thoughts as well...... all good stuff for the traders. (I'm not one.... prefer long term tax free gains.)

Meanwhile, news of Nestle stepping into A2 fresh milk in Sth America (https://www.foodprocessing-technology.com/comment/20668/)

The link you provided is as stale as last year's milk though :ohmy:

[Leftfield]

The link you provided is as stale as last year's milk though :ohmy: Oops my mistake..... as always DYOR!

[RupertBear]

TA indicates a possible short term fall back to the gap between $A12.75 and $A13.00 (approx $NZ13.20 to $13.50 ) that may need to get filled before the SP moves higher. See the red line on this pic.

10395

That said and done the TA is then looking favourable, golden cross and all that. FA also looking good according to Goldman Sachs...So be patient.

However some think TA is rubbish so DYOR. JMHO.

Thanks Left Field :)

[minimoke]

Interesting that A2M has held up on open given its lost 12% in value in its stake in SML.

[777]

Interesting that A2M has held up on open given its lost 12% in value in its stake in SML.


But they are getting cheap raw materials from SML.

[sb9]

Interesting that A2M has held up on open given its lost 12% in value in its stake in SML.

Yeah, they screwed SML to get more margins on their finished product + there was big increase in finished goods inventory which will be good for A2.

[minimoke]

Yeah, they screwed SML to get more margins on their finished product + there was big increase in finished goods inventory which will be good for A2.Seems the new CEO of ATM might be doing a better job than the new CEO of SML.

[Leftfield]

Seems the new CEO of ATM might be doing a better job than the new CEO of SML.

Indeed, todays SML result and the evident 'hard bargaining' by ATM management over margins is a credit to ATM's management team, their 'diary disrupter' model and an endorsement of their 'capital light' v SML's 'capital intensive' model.

Remember Beagle's thread on which would be the best long term investment, SML or ATM? Maybe today's result gives us a message.

(Disc holding ATM not SML ....DYOR)

[nzsharetrade]

how screwing up SML would add any value to ATM?

SML should help Nestlé A2 to enter China if ATM is playing around the margin. the key part of SAMR registration is the source of your material.

[mfd]

how screwing up SML would add any value to ATM?

SML should help Nestlé A2 to enter China if ATM is playing around the margin. the key part of SAMR registration is the source of your material.

What makes you think nestle would offer a better margin than A2?

[t.rexjr]

how screwing up SML would add any value to ATM?

SML should help Nestlé A2 to enter China if ATM is playing around the margin. the key part of SAMR registration is the source of your material.

I do hope you never never get to mentor any budding entrepreneurs

[nzsharetrade]

What makes you think nestle would offer a better margin than A2?

i am not saying Nestle will do that and it does not have to be Nestle. it could be anyone SML choose to supply......

[Balance]

I do hope you never never get to mentor any budding entrepreneurs

Sounds entirely logical to me!

:p

[mfd]

i am not saying Nestle will do that and it does not have to be Nestle. it could be anyone SML choose to supply......

Without knowing the details, and please feel free to correct me, my assumption is that A2 are now paying a fair margin to synlait. They may have been paying a higher price before, partially due to smaller volumes and partly to compensate for synlait working so hard to keep up with their volume needs. The fact that margins have reduced does not mean that they are now lower than they should be.

[minimoke]

The fact that margins have reduced does not mean that they are now lower than they should be.Theyu might be benificial for ATM. But as far as SML is concerned you cant sell product for less than cost of sales. SML's margins are way off where they need to be if they are going to maintain costs.

[Beagle]

Theyu might be benificial for ATM. But as far as SML is concerned you cant sell product for less than cost of sales. SML's margins are way off where they need to be if they are going to maintain costs.

Yeap. The lack of transparency in terms of Synlait not telling the market about the terms of this new contract has blindsided minority SML shareholders and explains why a major gap has opened up between the relative share prices of these two companies in recent months. Some major shareholders were obviously "in the know"
John Penno was a great CEO but as with ATM we now get an unknown quantity with a whole lot to prove... but we do get lovely pink colours and heaps of slides and details about diversity programs...its just absolutely marvellous, that's exactly what I have been hankering for all these years (sarcasm intended).

I think both ATM and SML are very fully priced and an awful lot of future growth is already priced in but in all sincerity I wish the best of luck to shareholders of both companies.

[BlackPeter]

Seems the new CEO of ATM might be doing a better job than the new CEO of SML.

Actually - they announced the milk price agreement betwen these two companies in early July 2018. At this stage it was still John Penno running Synlait - and Jane started from memory only after this announcement as well her new job (but yes, in July as well).

Blame the old management ...

[Sideshow Bob]

https://www.nutraingredients-asia.com/Article/2019/03/19/Low-rate-of-breastfeeding-in-China-attributed-to-heavy-marketing-of-infant-formula?utm_source=newsletter_daily&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=20-Mar-2019&c=vyBYncJCWKWdbA%2BtVBHHQwco1hG2vFTs&p2=


Low rate of breastfeeding in China attributed to heavy marketing of infant formula (https://www.nutraingredients-asia.com/Article/2019/03/19/Low-rate-of-breastfeeding-in-China-attributed-to-heavy-marketing-of-infant-formula?utm_source=copyright&utm_medium=OnSite&utm_campaign=copyright)

[whatsup]

https://www.nutraingredients-asia.com/Article/2019/03/19/Low-rate-of-breastfeeding-in-China-attributed-to-heavy-marketing-of-infant-formula?utm_source=newsletter_daily&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=20-Mar-2019&c=vyBYncJCWKWdbA%2BtVBHHQwco1hG2vFTs&p2=


Low rate of breastfeeding in China attributed to heavy marketing of infant formula (https://www.nutraingredients-asia.com/Article/2019/03/19/Low-rate-of-breastfeeding-in-China-attributed-to-heavy-marketing-of-infant-formula?utm_source=copyright&utm_medium=OnSite&utm_campaign=copyright)

Boyo did that give the ATM market a scare.

[minimoke]

Actually - they announced the milk price agreement betwen these two companies in early July 2018. At this stage it was still John Penno running Synlait - and Jane started from memory only after this announcement as well her new job (but yes, in July as well).

Blame the old management ...Thanks for the correction.

[sb9]

After watching the webcast of Synlait's presentation by CEO and CFO y'day, there are lot subtle hints that were a giveaway which point to a boomer of SH 2019 for A2, both on better margins which we all know by now and expected increase in canned IF sales.

In other words, its an indirect trading upgrade for A2.

[carrom74]

Is there an index rebalancing going at the moment at ASX ? Match price is $11.79 ... could anyone please throw light??

[sb9]

Is there an index rebalancing going at the moment at ASX ? Match price is $11.79 ... could anyone please throw light??

Its the monthly option expiry day over on ASX, code for big boys games among themselves. Nothing much to see there.

[777]

Is there an index rebalancing going at the moment at ASX ? Match price is $11.79 ... could anyone please throw light??

Match price 45mins before opening are meaningless. Wait until 10 or 15 mins before opening to start getting a more accurate price.

[carrom74]

Its the monthly option expiry day over on ASX, code for big boys games among themselves. Nothing much to see there.

Thanks sb9... much relieved i should say.

[dreamcatcher]

Wonder how much of SML's increased production from their new plant at Pokeno, producing an extra 45,000 tons of infant grade skim milk, whole milk and infant formula base powders will head A2 way. As I believe they have a contract

One might assume someone put their hand up to take volume.

[whatsup]

Why the sudden interest today on opening ? SML as well .

[sb9]

Why the sudden interest today on opening ? SML as well .

Both catching upto Aus spike late y'day evening after we closed.

[minimoke]

Why the sudden interest today on opening ? SML as well .SML is easy to explain. I sold out yesterday.

[RupertBear]

SML is easy to explain. I sold out yesterday.

Yep feeling the same way ;)

[RupertBear]

Not sure why someone would pay $10.37?! :confused: Might be one of those dead cats playing with us and it will drop down again next week :D

[sb9]

Not sure why someone would pay $10.37?! :confused: Might be one of those dead cats playing with us and it will drop down again next week :D

Guess you're referring to SML's price. It closed on ASX at A$10.05 which equates to NZ 10.39 based on current cross rates. So its just gapped up to catch up to ASX close price, so does ATM.

Once ASX opens prices will change either up or down.

[RupertBear]

Oops yes sorry wrong post, yes was referring to SML :)

[minimoke]

ATM has always been subject to wild swings

[sb9]

Ramping up China growth further with this appointment.

Appointment of Chief Executive Greater China – Li Xiao
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/332398

[Leftfield]

ATM launches coffee creamer range into the $US3.1 Billion USA coffee creamer market and plans to launch an IF range in the future.

Details here. (https://outline.com/hRMDjb)

[sb9]

ATM launches coffee creamer range into the $US3.1 Billion USA coffee creamer market and plans to launch an IF range in the future.

Details here. (https://outline.com/hRMDjb)

Looks like Jayne is doing with US what Geoff did with China in his time.

[davflaws]

If Jayne can manage that -she can sell as many shares as she wants, whenever she wants as far as I am concerned

[Leftfield]

I liked the part in their last report/update when they commented that the USA is following the same sales trajectory as A2 achieved in Aussie. That's huge potential!

Never mind raw milk and creamers, if A2 has 30% of the Aus IF market and even if we discount a fair bit of that disappearing to China via Diagou channels, 10% of the USA IF market would seem v achievable.

Being capital light and able to source product from a choice of suppliers/partners as well as countries (Aus, NZ, UK and USA) is a huge strength IMO.

Crikey I might be falling in love!!

[Leftfield]

From over in HC some pretty amazing IF export stats, looks like a v strong second half to supplement the additional ad spending.

Remember this product will reflect the higher margins negotiated ex SML !!

10424

[dreamcatcher]

GS report today probably summarized by media shortly with Feb 2019 volumes leaving Lyttleton port

[Sideshow Bob]

From over in HC some pretty amazing IF export stats, looks like a v strong second half to supplement the additional ad spending.

Remember this product will reflect the higher margins negotiated ex SML !!

10424

Presume total industry stats rather than particular to a2?

[allfromacell]

Presume total industry stats rather than particular to a2?

Essentially all the IF leaving that port is A2s product.

[sb9]

NIKKO ASSET MGMT DREADS AN A2 MILK TAKEOVER OFFERInteresting read...

http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/b486ec6b/nikko-asset-mgmt-dreads-an-a2-milk-takeover-offer.html

[winner69]

Jacinda having a day in China next week .....hopefully might be good for A2 (and others selling into China)

[Leftfield]

Jacinda having a day in China next week .....hopefully might be good for A2 (and others selling into China)

Meanwhile details of A2's USA (Chicago) marketing can be seen on this site (it may take a bit of time to load.) Impressive. IMHO.

https://theescapepod.com/a2-milk/

[sb9]

Meanwhile details of A2's USA (Chicago) marketing can be seen on this site (it may take a bit of time to load.) Impressive. IMHO.

https://theescapepod.com/a2-milk/

That's one helluva cool truck, man they do know how to market the product.

[RupertBear]

Meanwhile details of A2's USA (Chicago) marketing can be seen on this site (it may take a bit of time to load.) Impressive. IMHO.

https://theescapepod.com/a2-milk/

Thats seriously cool marketing! :cool:

[silu]

Meanwhile details of A2's USA (Chicago) marketing can be seen on this site (it may take a bit of time to load.) Impressive. IMHO.

https://theescapepod.com/a2-milk/

Even the cynic in me loves that bus.

[loon]

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/mar/29/can-the-world-quench-chinas-bottomless-thirst-for-milk

[Leftfield]

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/mar/29/can-the-world-quench-chinas-bottomless-thirst-for-milk

Good article, thanks for posting. Shows both the power of the Chinese market, plus the dilemma and inefficiencies inherent in the diary industry.

Meanwhile, Motley Fool see's ATM/A2M SP doubling from present levels over the next 2 to 3 years. So say 33% pa that's pretty good growth still left in this stock. See it here. (https://www.fool.com.au/2019/03/29/why-id-buy-the-a2-milk-co-ltd-this-april/)

[couta1]

Good article, thanks for posting. Shows both the power of the Chinese market, plus the dilemma and inefficiencies inherent in the diary industry.

Meanwhile, Motley Fool see's ATM/A2M SP doubling from present levels over the next 2 to 3 years. So say 33% pa that's pretty good growth still left in this stock. See it here. (https://www.fool.com.au/2019/03/29/why-id-buy-the-a2-milk-co-ltd-this-april/) The Motley Fool is all over the place with this stock so I wouldn't give them any credence. PS-They reckon you shouldn't have anymore than 2-3% of your capital in the stock(Doesn't sound like a bullish recommendation does it) there is no hope for me then with about 45% of mine currently in A2.Lol

[Baa_Baa]

The Motley Fool is all over the place with this stock so I wouldn't give them any credence. PS-They reckon you shouldn't have anymore than 2-3% of your capital in the stock(Doesn't sound like a bullish recommendation does it) there is no hope for me then with about 45% of mine currently in A2.Lol

Agree, Motley is often late to the party. I'm also 40%+ ATM but only because it keeps going up! Lol. When it doesn't I'll be 0% until it goes up again, 😂

[winner69]

Hope Jacinda doesn’t say too much about the persecution of the Uighurs Muslims when she has a chat with Xi Jinping next week

Might upset the apple cart and affect our trading with China

[Leftfield]

The Motley Fool is all over the place with this stock so I wouldn't give them any credence. PS-They reckon you shouldn't have anymore than 2-3% of your capital in the stock(Doesn't sound like a bullish recommendation does it) there is no hope for me then with about 45% of mine currently in A2.Lol

I agree I don't place much importance on Motley but in this one I think they are right.....

Good to see both you and Baa Baa over 40% deep in ATM. I'm still 60% plus deep and comforted that my Sharesite record tells me I've averaged over 150% annual gain on ATM (see pic) since 2014 (well before Motely started to follow ATM.) Hard to beat that success.
10434

Will it continue?..... IMHO ATM will continue to out perform NZX50 and 33% annual growth over the next 2-3 yrs is about right.

[bull....]

test of $15 soon? top bollinger slowing turning up

[Sideshow Bob]

test of $15 soon? top bollinger slowing turning up

It's been a bit quiet here the last little while. Testing $15 would spark up the locals!! :t_up:

[bull....]

It's been a bit quiet here the last little while. Testing $15 would spark up the locals!! :t_up:

creating plenty of millionaires this stock

[couta1]

test of $15 soon? top bollinger slowing turning up Maybe, not definitive just yet, shorts also starting to rise

[bull....]

Maybe, not definitive just yet, shorts also starting to rise

$15 today lol

[Balance]

Maybe, not definitive just yet, shorts also starting to rise

Shorts feeling the BURN! :t_up:

[couta1]

Shorts feeling the BURN! :t_up: They never learn.Lol

[see weed]

Wow burn baby burn. A2 was 99.9% of my portfolio a little while back, now only about 50%. :t_up:

[minimoke]

Wow burn baby burn. A2 was 99.9% of my portfolio a little while back, now only about 50%. :t_up:Wouldn't you be happier if it was still 99.9%?

[sb9]

Presentation to be given by The a2 Milk Company Limited in Sydney on 3 April 2019.

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/332870

[Beagle]

http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/a1e7df9a/a2-milk-says-lift-in-dairy-prices-may-impact-in-fy2020.html?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=A2%20Milk%20says%20lift%20in%20dairy% 20prices%20may%20impact%20in%20FY2020&utm_content=A2%20Milk%20says%20lift%20in%20dairy%2 0prices%20may%20impact%20in%20FY2020+CID_df15422b0 3e35bc694407aacba70367f&utm_source=Email%20marketing%20software&utm_term=httpwwwsharechatconzarticlea1e7df9aa2-milk-says-lift-in-dairy-prices-may-impact-in-fy2020html

Trading 12% above FCNZ's price target and margin pressure coming in FY20. ATM has been very good to me in the past but I am pleased to be out of this and Synlait. Be careful with these high PE zero dividend yield stocks folks. Good luck to holders and I sincerely mean that.

[Sideshow Bob]

Presentation to be given by The a2 Milk Company Limited in Sydney on 3 April 2019.

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/332870

Interesting pages 9 & 10. We are now half way through that 2nd HY, so they should have a good handle on it - ie sales momentum, marketing, forward orders, spend etc.

Some positives - strengthening China IF market share, US Growth, doubling down on Chinese marketing investment, revenue growth rate for 2HY broadly in line with 1HY

Some Negative - Lower % margins (albeit largely because of further investment), weaker AUD, global dairy prices going forward to increase the squeeze.

Overall, the story continues. Negative is largely short term and reinvestment in marketing and brand (which is fine as long as get bang for their buck), and the fluctuations with general dairy pricing and currency.

[Tiddlywinks]

http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/a1e7df9a/a2-milk-says-lift-in-dairy-prices-may-impact-in-fy2020.html?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=A2%20Milk%20says%20lift%20in%20dairy% 20prices%20may%20impact%20in%20FY2020&utm_content=A2%20Milk%20says%20lift%20in%20dairy%2 0prices%20may%20impact%20in%20FY2020+CID_df15422b0 3e35bc694407aacba70367f&utm_source=Email%20marketing%20software&utm_term=httpwwwsharechatconzarticlea1e7df9aa2-milk-says-lift-in-dairy-prices-may-impact-in-fy2020html

Trading 12% above FCNZ's price target and margin pressure coming in FY20. ATM has been very good to me in the past but I am pleased to be out of this and Synlait. Be careful with these high PE zero dividend yield stocks folks. Good luck to holders and I sincerely mean that.


Hi Beagle,
A quick look at ShareClarity suggests most NZX companies are trading above DCF valuation doesn't it? And margin pressure seems to be due to short term factors or factors that go up and down (e.g. x-rates and dairy prices). I'm also happy with marketing reinvestment - expected for growth in big markets like the US and China.

[Baa_Baa]

http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/a1e7df9a/a2-milk-says-lift-in-dairy-prices-may-impact-in-fy2020.html?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=A2%20Milk%20says%20lift%20in%20dairy% 20prices%20may%20impact%20in%20FY2020&utm_content=A2%20Milk%20says%20lift%20in%20dairy%2 0prices%20may%20impact%20in%20FY2020+CID_df15422b0 3e35bc694407aacba70367f&utm_source=Email%20marketing%20software&utm_term=httpwwwsharechatconzarticlea1e7df9aa2-milk-says-lift-in-dairy-prices-may-impact-in-fy2020html

Trading 12% above FCNZ's price target and margin pressure coming in FY20. ATM has been very good to me in the past but I am pleased to be out of this and Synlait. Be careful with these high PE zero dividend yield stocks folks. Good luck to holders and I sincerely mean that.

Having no dividend it probably doesn't fit your buyer profile anymore, but for some people the low $8.67 to recent high $15.00 is a 73% gain in capital since 12 Oct 2018. That presented terrific gains even for people who trade on conservative momentum signals.

[Leftfield]

Agree Baa Baa this is not a stock for dividend hounds.... in addition I would point out that Beagles fears of 'Margin pressure' may be over-done as;

1.) Almost every half year that I can remember since 2012, ATM has signalled increased marketing spending in the second half of each FY, and I think you will find this spending has been very expertly managed both to dampen increased profit expectations and to gain strategic progress without eroding margins too greatly.
2.) We shouldn't ignore further increased margins as Fonterra's IF comes on stream and is channeled to its "exclusive supply rights for IF and other products into new priority markets." (refer chart on page 6 and think USA, S Korea, Singapore, Japan etc.)

[Beagle]

Hi Beagle,
A quick look at ShareClarity suggests most NZX companies are trading above DCF valuation doesn't it? And margin pressure seems to be due to short term factors or factors that go up and down (e.g. x-rates and dairy prices). I'm also happy with marketing reinvestment - expected for growth in big markets like the US and China.
I wouldn't recommend paying any attention to what share clarity suggests is fair value.


Having no dividend it probably doesn't fit your buyer profile anymore, but for some people the low $8.67 to recent high $15.00 is a 73% gain in capital since 12 Oct 2018. That presented terrific gains even for people who trade on conservative momentum signals.
No it doesn't fit what I'm looking for now. One can choose convenient timeframes to show almost anything. For example and I noted this the other day when looking at last years spreadsheet, my holding in boring REIT ARG outperformed ATM from 31 March 2018 to 31 March 2019 and that does not include the dividends from ARG.
ATM has had a fantastic run over the last few years and I feel that a substaintial amount of future growth is already factored into the current share price.
I had a lot of respect for Mr Babbage and Mr Penno while they were CEO's of the business's and what they've done for shareholders over the years in ATM and SML but the new CEO's of these companies have set their own culture and "style" and I am most unimpressed.

[allfromacell]

*Pleasing progress for China label and English label (CBEC) infant formula sales.
*Continued strengthening of infant formula market share position (China & ANZ).
*Continuing positive momentum in sales velocities in the US

Everything on track, management continuing to deliver as the balance street continues to get stronger.

[Balance]

*Pleasing progress for China label and English label (CBEC) infant formula sales.
*Continued strengthening of infant formula market share position (China & ANZ).
*Continuing positive momentum in sales velocities in the US

Everything on track, management continuing to deliver as the balance street continues to get stronger.

And Sp is approaching $15.00 - one more good day, and it will be there.

Shorts are building up again so that's a great sign of the next step up to $20 when the shorts have to cover. Ouch!

[see weed]

Wouldn't you be happier if it was still 99.9%?
No, it hurts too much when going down, but happy with what i got and more diversified now. Portfolio going up about ?ks a day lately, but don't know how long that will last.

[nzsharetrade]

I was hoping ATM could have this kind of news in CN, US, UK ..................


"Shanghai | A private equity fund linked to Jack Ma’s Chinese ecommerce giant Alibaba Group will own more than 15 per cent of fast-growing infant formula group Bubs Australia as part of a deal to acquire a Melbourne dairy manufacturer.Bubs, which sells goat milk products to China’s middle class, has agreed to buy infant formula producer Australia Deloraine Dairy. "

[Leftfield]

Not strictly related to ATM but never-the-less a good background article on our Diary industry by Brian Gaynor. "Should Fonterra list before it is too late."
Read it here. (https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12219775)

[Ggcc]

Very low turnover on the ASX today? Very seldom does the NZX outperform the ASX in turnover..... Who knows maybe those shorters are spending less.......... No no it looks like they are up on the rise


https://www.shortman.com.au/stock?q=a2m

[couta1]

Very low turnover on the ASX today? Very seldom does the NZX outperform the ASX in turnover..... Who knows maybe those shorters are spending less.......... No no it looks like they are up on the rise


https://www.shortman.com.au/stock?q=a2m Held up better than I expected today, thought it would drop below $14.40 NZ once the Aussie opened,seems to be in a less volatile consolidating period of late, entry into the ASX 50 come June would send it Northwards.

[Baa_Baa]

Held up better than I expected today, thought it would drop below $14.40 NZ once the Aussie opened,seems to be in a less volatile consolidating period of late, entry into the ASX 50 come June would send it Northwards.

Indeed ASX50 would demand exposure to big funds forced to take a position as per their prospectus, along with anticipated stellar full year results post end-June, continued growth in China and USA (doubled in 2018) in particular, Sth Korea demand growth, Fonterra milk supplies coming on stream second half 2019, Synlait processing growth coming in second half 2019, and so on and so forth.

This juggernaut seems to be only just getting up a head of steam in the global supply context. Much more fun to be had in the future, of that I'm as near certain as one could be, with possibly the odd deep dive buying opportunity when the vested insiders performance and bonus shares get sold, freaking out the punters. Mana from heaven for us as it was last time, up ~70% since.

[BlackPeter]

Held up better than I expected today, thought it would drop below $14.40 NZ once the Aussie opened,seems to be in a less volatile consolidating period of late, entry into the ASX 50 come June would send it Northwards.

Not sure about that. I guess - yes, sometimes entry into a new class means a bit of a wobble, but what likely is going to happen is that the mid cap funds move their A2M shares to the large cap funds. Might be quite price neutral, apart from the for this stock typical zigzag moves.

[Sideshow Bob]

Article about Chinese manufacturers infant formula:

https://www.nutraingredients-asia.com/Article/2019/03/27/China-s-domestic-infant-formula-safer-than-ever-in-wake-of-increasingly-strict-regulation?utm_source=EditorsSpotlight&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=2019-04-12&c=vyBYncJCWKWYHwPP4%2Fyz3YpmS7kj3Y3V

Interesting comment about sourcing and raw material. Mentions Chinese brands establishing factories or research centres in NZ/AU and experiencing a surge of sales as a result - including Beingmate and Yili.

[minimoke]

Article about Chinese manufacturers infant formula:

https://www.nutraingredients-asia.com/Article/2019/03/27/China-s-domestic-infant-formula-safer-than-ever-in-wake-of-increasingly-strict-regulation?utm_source=EditorsSpotlight&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=2019-04-12&c=vyBYncJCWKWYHwPP4%2Fyz3YpmS7kj3Y3V

Interesting comment about sourcing and raw material. Mentions Chinese brands establishing factories or research centres in NZ/AU and experiencing a surge of sales as a result - including Beingmate and Yili.Which is why having a trusted brand is so important (also helps of you have a formula which cuts out something that might give wee bubs a sore tummy)

[couta1]

Big finish on the Aussie $14.87 NZ equivalent, should be a good day on Monday.

[allfromacell]

10474

Look at Nestle's desperate marketing lol.

[Ggcc]

10474

Look at Nestle's desperate marketing lol.
Thanks for the photo. Hopefully it keeps going that way as the price for Nestle is much cheaper (It looks like they look like they sell more A2 than Nestle)

[minimoke]

10474

Look at Nestle's desperate marketing lol.
Look at the half empty a2 shelf

[weasel]

Thanks for the photo. Hopefully it keeps going that way as the price for Nestle is much cheaper (It looks like they look like they sell more A2 than Nestle)

It's 35 vs 36 dollars isn't it?

[Ggcc]

It's 35 vs 36 dollars isn't it?
Yes but I was being cynical sorry. Text does not always show emotions

[Leftfield]

It's 35 vs 36 dollars isn't it?

Nice to see other brands being discounted.

[sb9]

Big finish on the Aussie $14.87 NZ equivalent, should be a good day on Monday.

Might claim that much awaited $15 mark today

[minimoke]

Big finish on the Aussie $14.87 NZ equivalent, should be a good day on Monday.now at aud $14.16 or $15.00 nz equivalent. Just a few moments before this roles onto NZX

Edit. And there we have it: $15.00. Back to all time high. Lets keep the momentum going!

[see weed]

10474

Look at Nestle's desperate marketing lol.
Notice how Nestle's advertising is trying to overshadow a2's shelf. Correct me if I am wrong, but did Nestle's forget to mention the a1 content of their a2 product.

[Leftfield]

Notice how Nestle's advertising is trying to overshadow a2's shelf. Correct me if I am wrong, but did Nestle's forget to mention the a1 content of their a2 product.

I think you will find that Nestle have an only A2 product to try and rival ATM.

[Balance]

now at aud $14.16 or $15.00 nz equivalent. Just a few moments before this roles onto NZX

Edit. And there we have it: $15.00. Back to all time high. Lets keep the momentum going!

And notice that the shorts actually started increasing again after the short coverings (or rather, losses taken) - 7m more shares shorted!

BURN, baby, BURN!

[minimoke]

Dont mind saying its a very good feeling to have a share in my portfolio hitting all time highs. A bit of a rarity! Long may it go on - but as per ATM usual I expecting a fall back.

[Leftfield]

Yee ha.....and over $15 it goes!

[Sideshow Bob]

Yee ha.....and over $15 it goes!

Whoop whoop!

[Beagle]

I remember this at $14.62 way back in February 2018 so considering it pays no dividends its about time it made a clean break to a fresh high. No doubt Ms Herdlicker will be pleased at the prospect of getting more for her next sell-down.

[couta1]

And notice that the shorts actually started increasing again after the short coverings (or rather, losses taken) - 7m more shares shorted!

BURN, baby, BURN! When will they ever learn ,When will they ever learn, trade it dont short it.Lol

[Ggcc]

Geez those shorters will be weeping. It looks like a huge increase in Australia

[Leftfield]

I remember this at $14.62 way back in February 2018 so considering it pays no dividends its about time it made a clean break to a fresh high. No doubt Ms Herdlicker will be pleased at the prospect of getting more for her next sell-down.

Time to move on Beagle. Congrats to holders.

[allfromacell]

You can almost always find a window to make a stocks performance look good or bad depending on your basis. When you zoom out it's clear to everyone this company has been one of the best performing in the history of the NZX.

Management continues executing their strategy in text book fashion and with lots future potential left I think it's wise to at least have a small portion of ones portfolio in this little piece of NZ history.

[minimoke]

Even better ASX closed at nz equivalent of $15.47

[Balance]

Geez those shorters will be weeping. It looks like a huge increase in Australia

Closed on ASX at A$14.61 or NZ$15.49.

Guess the shorters will be hoping that Ms Herdlicker will be selling down her shares soon!

But you have to ask - not a given that she will sell?

She sold 357,232 shares at average of $12.20 just 7 months ago = that's a cool $1.175m :eek2: she left on the table, on today's closing price.

And to think that so many gave her grief over it, instead of thanking her at that time for the golden opportunity! Sp got down to $9.90 = 57% increase in 7 months!!!!! :t_up:

[Ggcc]

What would a takeover bid be at? It seems a lot of interest on no news. It just makes the
mind boggle

[flyer]

yeah, was thinking that today, everyone went anti when she sold her shares whereas in hindsight, what a great buying opportunity it was. I know I bought a small parcel but could of/should of bought more.

[Baa_Baa]

Time to move on Beagle. Congrats to holders.

Some people have trouble letting go, when FOMO moves to DIMO (damn, I missed out). Buy the breakout today!

There's few if any growth stories like this one, I'm so glad to have had the nuts and ready$ to capitalise on the CEO and other insiders selldown recently, much and all as it was annoying at the time, now so far ahead after only a few months it would take armageddon to turn this red in my portfolio. And that ain't happening as far as I can tell, but if it did I'd be long gone based on my chart signals. Nothing to fear but fear itself.

[petty]

Is there any actual news, event, activity that is driving this latest rally?

[Baa_Baa]

Is there any actual news, event, activity that is driving this latest rally?

Short side covering margin calls, it looks like to me. Don't always need a company news, sometimes one side of the market gets caught out. Also the long side chart players will pile into resistance breakouts. Run with the money.

[sb9]

Closed on ASX at A$14.61 or NZ$15.49.

Guess the shorters will be hoping that Ms Herdlicker will be selling down her shares soon!

But you have to ask - not a given that she will sell?

She sold 357,232 shares at average of $12.20 just 7 months ago = that's a cool $1.175m :eek2: she left on the table, on today's closing price.

And to think that so many gave her grief over it, instead of thanking her at that time for the golden opportunity! Sp got down to $9.90 = 57% increase in 7 months!!!!! :t_up:

Sure an astounding return from lows of last year, managed to pick a small parcel around $10 mark to add to my long term parcel. It’s been hell of run with this beaut.

On another note, just like Friday close with 10c lift at close on 500k volume, today also closed with 10c lift on 600k+ volume. All on A2M ticker on ASX.

Not sure what it’s significance though, either someone is happy to pay 10c higher at day’s close or some funds accumulating for a possible ASX 50 inclusion in Jun quarter index rebalance.

[couta1]

Sure an astounding return from lows of last year, managed to pick a small parcel around $10 mark to add to my long term parcel. It’s been hell of run with this beaut.

On another note, just like Friday close with 10c lift at close on 500k volume, today also closed with 10c lift on 600k+ volume. All on A2M ticker on ASX.

Not sure what it’s significance though, either someone is happy to pay 10c higher at day’s close or some funds accumulating for a possible ASX 50 inclusion in Jun quarter index rebalance. A combination of short covering and accumulation always leads to irrational spikes.