ATM - A2 Milk Corporation Limited

[longy]

Smile? Trump is trying to destroy Chinese middle class and rebuild US middle class. you really think US middle class would like A2 IF in the same way with Chinese? I assume Chinese domestic brand with overseas supply will raise.

It seems to me the ultimate price is in China.

[MauroNZ]

Computer programs.

Makes sense now, thanks.

[bull....]

if trade war extends to aus/ nz a2 will get hammered. i see trump is letting aus of now over aluminium. what will happen if aus/nz have to pick sides

[minimoke]

if trade war extends to aus/ nz a2 will get hammered. i see trump is letting aus of now over aluminium. what will happen if aus/nz have to pick sidesOur trade with China is around 3 times bigger than our trade with USA.

[bull....]

Diversity of supply is one of the key strengths of ATM's 'Capital Light' International marketing stance IMO.

Made me smile when ATM SP went down in fear of Trump's tariffs some time ago..... little did they realise ATM USA is as American as pumpkin pie!

ATM's China milk supply is protected by sound free trade agreements between China and NZ/Aust.

Way to go ATM!! (Disc - Happy holder)

no such thing as a free trade agreement in a trade war , look tarriffs on mexico

[bull....]

Our trade with China is around 3 times bigger than our trade with USA.

so if nz sides with the US in trade war? just a risk not a reality at the moment

[Ggcc]

so if nz sides with the US in trade war? just a risk not a reality at the moment
We will be like Switzerland. Allies to both and both very very very close friends to both

[bull....]

We will be like Switzerland. Allies to both and both very very very close friends to both

how can you be friends to both over huewei?

[couta1]

if trade war extends to aus/ nz a2 will get hammered. i see trump is letting aus of now over aluminium. what will happen if aus/nz have to pick sides Who cares this stock will be worth $20 by this time next year and ultimately a lot more than that, this current noise is only a problem if you have to sell.PS-Fear and Greed control the sheeple.

[Ggcc]

how can you be friends to both over huewei?
Personally I don’t think Huewei is the issue, Trump is. Trump is great for Americans, but horrible for the world. I think I will choose the world over Trump. I think when you will see the report for A2 the only Concern we will have is SML for the short term

[nzsharetrade]

Personally I don’t think Huewei is the issue, Trump is. Trump is great for Americans, but horrible for the world. I think I will choose the world over Trump. I think when you will see the report for A2 the only Concern we will have is SML for the short term

Really? I thought everyone like it except sharemarket. EU, OZ, NZ are all fine. Chinese tech people are all happy, they now can get real funding for what they are doing.

[Beagle]

Who cares this stock will be worth $20 by this time next year and ultimately a lot more than that, this current noise is only a problem if you have to sell.PS-Fear and Greed control the sheeple.

Two greatest motivators on the market mate. Don't think they just affect the sheeple's of this world lol

[couta1]

Two greatest motivators on the market mate. Don't think they just affect the sheeple's of this world lol True but the key word in my sentence is control, dont be controlled by either.

[bull....]

hammered time , chinesse risk for sure

[couta1]

An unbelievabull buying opportunity for those with cash to spare.

[MauroNZ]

I bet, 8% in a half day is that usual for this one?

[couta1]

I bet, 8% in a half day is that usual for this one? Its only because our market was closed yesterday and we are playing catch up with the Aussie market.

[Sideshow Bob]

Been as low as $13.60 in Oz ($14.40 kiwi) but rebounded pretty fast.

Rough old day.

[longy]

An unbelievabull buying opportunity for those with cash to spare.

Hopefully this will pay off. I cleared out my bank account!!!

[dreamcatcher]

Isn't ASX50 index re-balance happening JUNE

[Beagle]

An unbelievabull buying opportunity for those with cash to spare.

I'd be interested at $10 with a lot of the hype taken out of it. Too much risk with concentration of supply to China, (in the current hostile trade environment) for my liking.

[couta1]

I'd be interested at $10 with a lot of the hype taken out of it. Too much risk with concentration of supply to China, (in the current hostile trade environment) for my liking.
Lol Beagle the biggest risk you'll ever take and you take it most days is to drive your car.

[Maverick]

Lol Beagle the biggest risk you'll ever take and you take it most days is to drive your car.
People who own ATM drive cars too:scared::scared::scared:.......maybe Couta we should start calling you ' evil kinevil "

[44wishlists]

I agree there is too much risk carrying by A2 at this stage. On top of the concentration in Chinese IF market, if Trump decided (or even just Tweet) to declare a (potential) tariff on any Australia imports, (which he thought about it in the weekend on the aluminium product), that would send A2M price way down south. Never says never, he is Donald Trump.

[couta1]

People who own ATM drive cars too:scared::scared::scared:.......maybe Couta we should start calling you ' evil kinevil " I'm kinda wondering what is more risky, taking the big block out for a spin or the upcoming ski season. PS- I've never traded ATM shares whilst driving the big block but have whilst on the ski lift.

[bull....]

short bounce might go under 14 today?

[Patient Panda]

I agree there is too much risk carrying by A2 at this stage. On top of the concentration in Chinese IF market, if Trump decided (or even just Tweet) to declare a (potential) tariff on any Australia imports, (which he thought about it in the weekend on the aluminium product), that would send A2M price way down south. Never says never, he is Donald Trump.


A change to US tariffs on Aussie imports / exports would have absolutely zero impact on A2.

if China increased tariffs on Aussie imports and cracked down on the grey market it could have huge implications for A2 but chances of that happening are basically non existant.

[bull....]

A change to US tariffs on Aussie imports / exports would have absolutely zero impact on A2.

if China increased tariffs on Aussie imports and cracked down on the grey market it could have huge implications for A2 but chances of that happening are basically non existant.

actually the risk is if nz sided with the US and china blacklisted A2 products. as seen other places when the govt tells people to not buy there products they dont

[couta1]

short bounce might go under 14 today? Lol shorters Incineration time will come again, they never learn, may the next bonfire be larger than the last one.

[Patient Panda]

actually the risk is if nz sided with the US and china blacklisted A2 products. as seen other places when the govt tells people to not buy there products they dont


Why in the world would NZ side with the US? Political suicide.

NZ is Chinas bread basket / milk bottle. They would be hurt more by blacklisting NZ imports.

[bull....]

Why in the world would NZ side with the US? Political suicide.

NZ is Chinas bread basket / milk bottle. They would be hurt more by blacklisting NZ imports.

the choice would be western values vrs the chinese system of values dont you think. dont these things out way economic considerations?

[longy]

Why in the world would NZ side with the US? Political suicide.

NZ is Chinas bread basket / milk bottle. They would be hurt more by blacklisting NZ imports.

New Zealand’s exports to China trump sales to Australia and the United States
February 11, 2019

[winner69]

Why in the world would NZ side with the US? Political suicide.

NZ is Chinas bread basket / milk bottle. They would be hurt more by blacklisting NZ imports.

We’re bending over backwards being ‘friends’ with China by ignoring all sorts of things.

It’s 30 years since Tiananmen Square .....tomorrow is the anniversary of Tank Man’s epic stand ....much braver than our Governments have been over the years.

[Patient Panda]

the choice would be western values vrs the chinese system of values dont you think. dont these things out way economic considerations?

I don’t see Jacinda buddying up with Trump.

The open free trade we have had with China looks far more appealing for NZ and commensurate with traditional classical liberalism than the protectionist autocratic esque trade war Trump is going for.

[couta1]

I don’t see Jacinda buddying up with Trump.

The open free trade we have had with China looks far more appealing for NZ and commensurate with traditional classical liberalism than the protectionist autocratic esque trade war Trump is going for. Trump is leading his own economy into recession and has a Narcissistic personality disorder so I agree totally, i cant see him being reelected anyway if he continues on his current path, of course he can do huge amount of damage between now and then.

[bull....]

I don’t see Jacinda buddying up with Trump.

The open free trade we have had with China looks far more appealing for NZ and commensurate with traditional classical liberalism than the protectionist autocratic esque trade war Trump is going for.

its about so much more than trade isnt it.

[Ggcc]

Great news for Nestle if the price continues to fall.....

[winner69]

its about so much more than trade isnt it.

Seems there isn’t bull .....A2 share price much more important than human rights

[Ggcc]

Trump is leading his own economy into recession and has a Narcissistic personality disorder so I agree totally, i cant see him being reelected anyway if he continues on his current path, of course he can do huge amount of damage between now and then.
In 18 months we will find out when elections happen. I don’t know who will become president, but maybe someone with a little more tact would be appreciated

[Patient Panda]

Seems there isn’t bull .....A2 share price much more important than human rights


I am by no means in support of the Chinese government quite the opposite.

Surely a welcoming open handed approach is going to be more effective in bringing Chinese people freedom than one of hostility. Trading nations, historically have exchanged the best ideas. Surely free flow of ideas as Chinese tourists come here and see what an open democracy looks and feels like are more likely to press and demand their own freedom instead of isolating ourselves.

[bull....]

I am by no means in support of the Chinese government quite the opposite.

Surely a welcoming open handed approach is going to be more effective in bringing Chinese people freedom than one of hostility. Trading nations, historically have exchanged the best ideas. Surely free flow of ideas as Chinese tourists come here and see what an open democracy looks and feels like are more likely to press and demand their own freedom instead of isolating ourselves.

the only thing chinese tourists dare talk about at home are how many cows we have

[see weed]

Hopefully this will pay off. I cleared out my bank account!!!
Pretty hard to pick the bottom. Have topped up 4 times today. Have picked four bottoms in 5 hours. They all seem to be dead cats bottoms. Have decided to stop picking any more bottoms today unless it goes below $14, then will have to start the whole bottom picking process again :eek2:.

[Lego_Man]

Longs getting BURNED!

[minimoke]

Longs getting BURNED!Still some way off from my stop loss being triggered. In the meantime glad I'm not retiring today and reliant on the funds. Just the usual old ATM roller coaster - though admittedly today is more helter skelter

[Beagle]

Pretty hard to pick the bottom. Have topped up 4 times today. Have picked four bottoms in 5 hours. They all seem to be dead cats bottoms. Have decided to stop picking any more bottoms today unless it goes below $14, then will have to start the whole bottom picking process again :eek2:.

I'm trying to get that image out of my head lol. Sounds very smelly :eek2:

For me, I'm simply not interested. Any stocks that relies on China for the vast majority of its sales is off limits as far as I am concerned. Anything can and probably will happen with this looming trade war...we live in interesting times and almost anything is possible including who knows how much collateral damage to N.Z.
I am very cautious. My favourite investment class is presently CASH.

[couta1]

Longs getting BURNED! Lol only the recent longs whereas all losing shorts have been turned to ashes with no hope of redemption. PS-Even the recent longs need not lose anything they just need to sit tight and do nothing.

[NZSilver]

Back in again today after I sold out a few months back. Easy $$ here.

[whatsup]

just gets worse into the close !!

[bull....]

my guess off under $14 today looking real

[silverblizzard888]

I'd say this is just a natural sell off by international investors. International markets are getting slaughter with the whole US tariff situation. So far its not a bad price for buying, but do be weary of the wrath of the international markets currently, there is not much rational in value when people panic and over think. Good long term buying though, will be interesting how this plays out. I'll possibly take a position myself if this heads into the $12-$13 mark, some good margin of safety there.

[couta1]

my guess off under $14 today looking real Lol as if your day long short motivated commentary could make one scrap of difference to the SP direction.

[Patient Panda]

You guys are jumping the gun.

The real time to buy is after this trade war talk is at maximum hype and then when Jayne sells her next allotment of shares for some more hysteria and real bargain buying.

[bull....]

my gosh i was right

The release of a new action plan for China’s strategically important formula sector appears directly aimed at squeezing foreign players out of both ends of the supply chain.

they after a2 to get rid of them out of china

https://www.afr.com/chanticleer/china-wipes-1bn-from-a2-milk-20190604-p51u8q

[nzsharetrade]

my gosh i was right

The release of a new action plan for China’s strategically important formula sector appears directly aimed at squeezing foreign players out of both ends of the supply chain.

they after a2 to get rid of them out of china

https://www.afr.com/chanticleer/china-wipes-1bn-from-a2-milk-20190604-p51u8q

................you just realized at end of the day???? I post on SML....

[bull....]

................you just realized at end of the day???? I post on SML....

lol it was picked up yesterday in aus trade. i just post for people info. this is serious stuff a2 directors in meetings on it

[couta1]

my gosh i was right

The release of a new action plan for China’s strategically important formula sector appears directly aimed at squeezing foreign players out of both ends of the supply chain.

they after a2 to get rid of them out of china

https://www.afr.com/chanticleer/china-wipes-1bn-from-a2-milk-20190604-p51u8q Complete scaremongering load of bull, who said they want to get rid of A2 from China.PS-Chinese not trust inferior homemade products.PPS-Someone else will have to keep the bull in check tomorrow as I have work to do.

[sb9]

my gosh i was right

The release of a new action plan for China’s strategically important formula sector appears directly aimed at squeezing foreign players out of both ends of the supply chain.

they after a2 to get rid of them out of china

https://www.afr.com/chanticleer/china-wipes-1bn-from-a2-milk-20190604-p51u8q

Whatever they may try to do, foreign brands of premium reputation and known for superior quality standards like A2 will never be taken of markets like China, if anything it helps A2 brand proposition.

Guess you've changed your position to short on A2 from being long.

[pg0220]

my gosh i was right

The release of a new action plan for China’s strategically important formula sector appears directly aimed at squeezing foreign players out of both ends of the supply chain.

they after a2 to get rid of them out of china

https://www.afr.com/chanticleer/china-wipes-1bn-from-a2-milk-20190604-p51u8q
Daigou businesses are going to have good time..... The article actually says that it is most likely to keep the US and European companies out of the way and not meant to be aimed at Australasian companies

[whatsup]

still falling in Aust, down .20 since out close !

[bull....]

still falling in Aust, down .20 since out close !

of another 40c from todays close in aus at the moment

[IAK]

More from Bloomberg.
https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2019-06-04/a2-leads-baby-formula-makers-down-as-china-to-boost-local-output?__twitter_impression=true

[dr_]

Replaced by STMOD because copy & pasting entire articles is a breach of copyright and we do not do that on Share Trader.

We quote a little section of the article only and provide a link to the article instead.

[Beagle]

I would think at face value this is VERY bad for any infant formula company awaiting a new registration as they may find their application is stalled indefinitely. Very bad for BAL in my opinion. ATM closed at A$13.03 which at 0.9440 = $13.80. I think the Chinese's new trade stance needs to be very carefully considered as a potential new and very serious long term risk to any company that relies on Chinese consumers for the bulk of their sales.

[longy]

I would think at face value this is VERY bad for any infant formula company awaiting a new registration as they may find their application is stalled indefinitely. Very bad for BAL in my opinion. ATM closed at A$13.03 which at 0.9440 = $13.80. I think the Chinese's new trade stance needs to be very carefully considered as a potential new and very serious long term risk to any company that relies on Chinese consumers for the bulk of their sales.

Has A2 got their SAMR yet?

[Baa_Baa]

I would think at face value this is VERY bad for any infant formula company awaiting a new registration as they may find their application is stalled indefinitely. Very bad for BAL in my opinion. ATM closed at A$13.03 which at 0.9440 = $13.80. I think the Chinese's new trade stance needs to be very carefully considered as a potential new and very serious long term risk to any company that relies on Chinese consumers for the bulk of their sales.

Not sure why you're heaping the doom and gloom on this, it's not your usual slo-mo train wreck that as a non-holder you so obviously enjoy, nor does it represent a "very serious long term risk". You're grossly overstating the implications imho.

Perhaps you haven't really read the interpreted announcements (which aren't available officially in English yet). What it basically says so far is that China want to bolster domestic supply to 60% (up 13%) and encourage their companies to acquire or partner with suppliers so as to control the supply-side of the supply chain, in order to achieve the goal % domestic supply. That means Chinese companies will want to get closer and more involved with companies like ATM.

Today's price reaction is understandable as many just see a news headline and bark at the improbable while failing to dig deeper and consider the potential. My guess is that this will wear off in a few days or a week or so and the enlightened and informed will have rejoiced in taking advantage of an oversold SP in an amazing growth story, that is well positioned and solid in its main market China. Absolutely nothing changed today about the business, only the SP changed.

[Patient Panda]

Agreed BaaBaa.

China’s arable land is decreasing and their people don’t trust their domestically produced food and for good reason. Its a natural consequence then that they seek to secure quality external ‘pure’ supply. Its for this reason the Chinese are snapping up farms here, owning large part of Synlait and the large new facility planned to neighbour the pokeno site.

[couta1]

Good post Baa Baa, noise generates fear and fear generates irrational decisions. A couple of years ago I had a huge amount wiped off my paper profits in A2 in a short space of time(More than I did today) I've learnt to trust my own judgement hence why I still have a large portion of all my available wealth tied up in this company and will continue to do so until I see a reason not to, this news is not that reason.

[nzsharetrade]

Not sure why you're heaping the doom and gloom on this, it's not your usual slo-mo train wreck that as a non-holder you so obviously enjoy, nor does it represent a "very serious long term risk". You're grossly overstating the implications imho.

Perhaps you haven't really read the interpreted announcements (which aren't available officially in English yet). What it basically says so far is that China want to bolster domestic supply to 60% (up 13%) and encourage their companies to acquire or partner with suppliers so as to control the supply-side of the supply chain, in order to achieve the goal % domestic supply. That means Chinese companies will want to get closer and more involved with companies like ATM.

Today's price reaction is understandable as many just see a news headline and bark at the improbable while failing to dig deeper and consider the potential. My guess is that this will wear off in a few days or a week or so and the enlightened and informed will have rejoiced in taking advantage of an oversold SP in an amazing growth story, that is well positioned and solid in its main market China. Absolutely nothing changed today about the business, only the SP changed.

Not sure how you read it like "That means Chinese companies will want to get closer and more involved with companies like ATM."
My understanding is they want company like ATM to have a factory in China which would not like to happen for ATM's light weight asset....
they want their own brand to get closer with company like SML for supply. they want to lock high margin profit in China.

looks like they did same thing for high tech area which upset the US.

[dreamcatcher]

Great summary Baa_Baa and similar to GS report.

Wonder if shorts used today's action to close positions ?

[bull....]

For A2 Milk Company and Bellamy’s, the risks are that their effective addressable market in China will shrink,” Morgan Stanley analyst Thomas Kierath said in a report

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-06-04/a2-leads-baby-formula-makers-down-as-china-to-boost-local-output

[longy]

For A2 Milk Company and Bellamy’s, the risks are that their effective addressable market in China will shrink,” Morgan Stanley analyst Thomas Kierath said in a report

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-06-04/a2-leads-baby-formula-makers-down-as-china-to-boost-local-output

The last paragraph is interesting. "The newly announced plan doesn’t entirely try to shut out foreign companies. It will support domestic dairy producers in acquiring or setting up overseas bases for milk supply, encourage foreign dairy firms to invest in China as well as tighten regulations on the milk-powder imports and online sales platforms."

Sounds to me acquisition or part own of the foreign supplies is quite possible. I am wondering Bub saw this coming and hence have Chinese owning of 30% its company?

[Lewylewylewy]

The thing is, if your policy blocks trade of milk from country x, then you'll find that country x blocks trade the other way. Of course it doesn't always work exactly like that, and China has very subversive ways to block trade without actually blocking it.

That said, people will always want foreign milk products for their little emperors.

Still, this, combined with the share price is worrying.

I wonder whether the USA market will make up the difference. They've been launching there recently, right?

[longy]

Another factor is what they like to do and actually able to do it is another matter. It won't happen over night either. They have tried this idea back in 2013 but it has not eventuated into reality.

[couta1]

For A2 Milk Company and Bellamy’s, the risks are that their effective addressable market in China will shrink,” Morgan Stanley analyst Thomas Kierath said in a report

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-06-04/a2-leads-baby-formula-makers-down-as-china-to-boost-local-output Lol another day of shorting commentary from the bull, enjoy folks.

[bull....]

Daigou businesses are going to have good time..... The article actually says that it is most likely to keep the US and European companies out of the way and not meant to be aimed at Australasian companies

this article says daigou will suffer

At this stage there is no suggestion of using traditional weapons like tariffs. Rather, the application of heightened regulations on cross border e-commerce sales and stronger checks around quality will be employed.


The move could impact the flourishing Daigou trade - which sees products like infant formula and vitamins bought off the shelves of Australian supermarkets and chemists, and then sold online in China.

https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/australia-s-infant-milk-formula-stocks-spoiled-by-us-china-trade-wars-20190604-p51ufn.html

[bull....]

Lol another day of shorting commentary from the bull, enjoy folks.

lol US markets had a good night last night so if it doesnt bounce the current news must be really serious

[Leftfield]

...I wonder whether the USA market will make up the difference. They've been launching there recently, right?

I think the current SP drop has been a bit of an over-reaction. Although China may try to increase its domestic milk supply, this will take time. In that time A2 has many options;

a.) A2 can keep increasing its current Chinese market share of 8% to offset any threats. 10% remains an achievable target.
b.) Use A2's capital light approach to form new partnerships with Chinese suppliers (risky and not my fav strategy)
c.) Expand A2 into other Asian markets (Korea, Singapore, Japan, Malaysia etc) to diversify away from reliance on the Chinese markets
d.) Speed up the planned IF launch into USA (A2 IF not yet launched in USA, but is planned.)

Let's hope the SP regains some composure as the week progresses.

[longy]

I think the current SP drop has been a bit of an over-reaction. Although China may try to increase its domestic milk supply, this will take time. In that time A2 has many options;

a.) A2 can keep increasing its current Chinese market share of 8% to offset any threats. 10% remains an achievable target.
b.) Use A2's capital light approach to form new partnerships with Chinese suppliers (risky and not my fav strategy)
c.) Expand A2 into other Asian markets (Korea, Singapore, Japan, Malaysia etc) to diversify away from reliance on the Chinese markets
d.) Speed up the planned IF launch into USA (A2 IF not yet launched in USA, but is planned.)

Let's hope the SP regains some composure as the week progresses.

I think the SP dropped was over done too. Part of the following article which I borrowed from another forum.

The trouble here is that China’s attempts to push its people into buying local baby formula product is it requires consumers to overcome a level of mistrust they have with the quality – asking parents to take a chance on what they feed their babies. NZ and Australian producers have always been aware their Chinese sales are vulnerable to regulatory changes, and as recently as last year had to deal with additional requirements for registration. But the New Zealand and Australian suppliers have been trusted by Chinese consumers around quality.

The second leg of China’s plan is to encourage local companies to buy offshore supply and motivate offshore producers to invest in China. It is too early to guess whether this may make Australia or New Zealand companies potential merger or acquisition targets.

[minimoke]

We seem to be forgetting A2 does A2 milk - not just any old infant formula. Clearly local Chinese are struggling with its own generic milk production / formula manufacture. It will take them even longer to get the A2

I think it is fair to assume NZ is a pretty good at herd management. If we are going to struggle converting herds to A2 then how will the Chinese fair?

Just a reminder: https://www.interest.co.nz/rural-news/92603/keith-woodford-explains-process-converting-dairy-herds-a2-one-will%C2%A0take

Also A2 is a "premium" product. China has to get its mass produced IF sorted first.

[steveb]

I wonder if A2 are looking at the condensed milk market,It's pretty big in china.I guess supply of milk could be a problem.

[nzsharetrade]

The last paragraph is interesting. "The newly announced plan doesn’t entirely try to shut out foreign companies. It will support domestic dairy producers in acquiring or setting up overseas bases for milk supply, encourage foreign dairy firms to invest in China as well as tighten regulations on the milk-powder imports and online sales platforms."

Sounds to me acquisition or part own of the foreign supplies is quite possible. I am wondering Bub saw this coming and hence have Chinese owning of 30% its company?

same thought about BUB.

[nzsharetrade]

We seem to be forgetting A2 does A2 milk - not just any old infant formula. Clearly local Chinese are struggling with its own generic milk production / formula manufacture. It will take them even longer to get the A2

I think it is fair to assume NZ is a pretty good at herd management. If we are going to struggle converting herds to A2 then how will the Chinese fair?

Just a reminder: https://www.interest.co.nz/rural-news/92603/keith-woodford-explains-process-converting-dairy-herds-a2-one-will%C2%A0take

Also A2 is a "premium" product. China has to get its mass produced IF sorted first.

The science behind A2 is a bit ........If Nestlé can do it without ATM, am sure big local producer can do the same and this is not a tech like 5G.

[minimoke]

The science behind A2 is a bit ........If Nestlé can do it without ATM, am sure big local producer can do the same and this is not a tech like 5G.
Most dairy cattle in China are Chinese Black and White and are derived from cross-breeding between the local yellow cattle and Holstein. (Holsteins are renown for their milk production - but also carry A1) They aren't the A2 favoured Guernsey or Jersey. So China will need to focus on the Holstein breed and locate the A2 only stock from there. Or import A2 semen and start a breeding programme - which takes time

[Chanchay]

Most dairy cattle in China are Chinese Black and White and are derived from cross-breeding between the local yellow cattle and Holstein. (Holsteins are renown for their milk production - but also carry A1) They aren't the A2 favoured Guernsey or Jersey. So China will need to focus on the Holstein breed and locate the A2 only stock from there. Or import A2 semen and start a breeding programme - which takes time

Your Chinese cow knowledge is impressive! Market seems to think yesterday was an overreaction. Up a bit already

[Oliver Mander]

I didn't catch the falling knife low enough yesterday...but will be looking ok after today methinks.

[bull....]

if ya got in around that $14 level yest doing nicely today. not bad swing trading. US markets monday printed a pretty close to a dojo bottom an oversold so was odds on for a rise last night but didnt expect the size of the move. anyway the stock will continue to swing with the flow of the macro and news events

[dr_]

US markets monday printed a pretty close to a dojo bottom an oversold so was odds on for a rise last night but didnt expect the size of the move.


https://www.ccn.com/dow-jones-china-trade-war-reversal

China’s Ministry of Commerce issued a statement (https://www.cnbc.com/2019/06/04/china-commerce-ministry-us-trade-dispute-will-need-to-be-solved-with-dialogue-and-mutual-respect.html) that unexpectedly advocated for Beijing and Washington to return to the negotiating table.
“The Chinese side always believes that the differences and frictions between the two sides in the economic and trade field will ultimately need to be resolved through dialogue and consultation,” the statement said, according to a CNBC translation.

[whatsup]

Im picking that we will dribble on until Aust opens today then the SP should be a little firmer.

[minimoke]

https://www.ccn.com/dow-jones-china-trade-war-reversal

China’s Ministry of Commerce issued a statement (https://www.cnbc.com/2019/06/04/china-commerce-ministry-us-trade-dispute-will-need-to-be-solved-with-dialogue-and-mutual-respect.html) that unexpectedly advocated for Beijing and Washington to return to the negotiating table.
“The Chinese side always believes that the differences and frictions between the two sides in the economic and trade field will ultimately need to be resolved through dialogue and consultation,” the statement said, according to a CNBC translation.

Now we just have to do the usual - wait for Australia market to open up. (buy now at $14.50 before it does)

[gbogo]

I think it looks horrible on the chart. Massive break of uptrend that was in place from Oct 2018 lows. Next buying support level is $12.60 area.

[whatsup]

Im picking that we will dribble on until Aust opens today then the SP should be a little firmer.

Didn't happen !

[Drew95]

Daigou businesses are going to have good time..... The article actually says that it is most likely to keep the US and European companies out of the way and not meant to be aimed at Australasian companies

Anyone here have a better idea than me as to how this might affect QEX, if at all?

[minimoke]

Anyone here have a better idea than me as to how this might affect QEX, if at all?I see it as a positive - its an open supply line of NZ sourced / Chinese backed manufacture back into china.

[dr_]

Latest update today from MQ. Target Price A$15.75 Outperform

10600

[couta1]

Latest update today from MQ. Target Price A$15.75 Outperform

10600 Lol never trust the market it's a "Conglomeration of Chaos" with Schizophrenic tendencies.

[dr_]

Lol never trust the market it's a "Conglomeration of Chaos" with Schizophrenic tendencies.

it's true, i'm holding since 70c and seen lots up and down along the road. it's a bumpy ride but i'm not in hurry to retire yet :)

[bull....]

this isnt good sold down all day on the verge of going negative , big volumes looks like more to the story?

[minimoke]

this isnt good sold down all day on the verge of going negative , big volumes looks like more to the story?20m here, 42m shares swapped in Aus. Seems quite a lot of activity on the NZX relative to ASX

[bull....]

20m here, 42m shares swapped in Aus. Seems quite a lot of activity on the NZX relative to ASX

big volume in nz yest too. institution selling?

[777]

For every seller there is a buyer.

[Beagle]

Lol never trust the market it's a "Conglomeration of Chaos" with Schizophrenic tendencies.

I have a love-hate relationship with my wife too lol. Should I seek professional help buddy or am I too far gone already ?

[percy]

I have a love-hate relationship with my wife too lol. Should I seek professional help buddy or am I too far gone already ?

I dare not comment.!...lol.

[couta1]

I have a love-hate relationship with my wife too lol. Should I seek professional help buddy or am I too far gone already ? Just remember your wife is always right even when she's not and you should be okay.

[silverblizzard888]

Just remember your wife is always right even when she's not and you should be okay.

Thats like saying the markets always right, sometimes you know you're right but what are you gonna do?
As they say markets can be irrational longer than you can stay solvent X)

[couta1]

Thats like saying the markets always right, sometimes you know you're right but what are you gonna do?
As they say markets can be irrational longer than you can stay solvent X) I've always thought that irrational quote is just plain stupid, I mean when was the last time the market stayed irrational for 20 yrs. Lol

[BlackPeter]

I've always thought that irrational quote is just plain stupid, I mean when was the last time the market stayed irrational for 20 yrs. Lol

Wasn't this quote made in the context of margin lending? I doubt many of them could afford to stay for 20 years below water ...

[dreamcatcher]

Danone given go ahead with Yashilli NZ

http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU1906/S00043/danone-cleared-to-indirectly-hold-up-to-65-of-yashili-nz.htm

Big day on Shortmans yesterday wonder if shorts closing ........... anyway who cares!

ASX Index re-balance due next week

[Joshuatree]

I have a love-hate relationship with my wife too lol. Should I seek professional help buddy or am I too far gone already ?

May have something to do with what breed she is.:t_up:

[see weed]

We seem to be forgetting A2 does A2 milk - not just any old infant formula. Clearly local Chinese are struggling with its own generic milk production / formula manufacture. It will take them even longer to get the A2

I think it is fair to assume NZ is a pretty good at herd management. If we are going to struggle converting herds to A2 then how will the Chinese fair?

Just a reminder: https://www.interest.co.nz/rural-news/92603/keith-woodford-explains-process-converting-dairy-herds-a2-one-will%C2%A0take

Also A2 is a "premium" product. China has to get its mass produced IF sorted first.
Good point. A2 drinkers are not going to start drinking Chinese made a1 IF products. Unless they accidentally put a2 labeling on the can.

[bull....]

in reply to people who say where are they going to get a2 milk from -

taxation benefits will be offered to companies that establish dairy manufacturing facilities overseas was included in mondays statement.

china have and are already aquiring milk factories ( westland milk the latest) in NZ . What stopping them aquiring a2 milk supply to there factories to make a2 infant formula in NZ. ? nothing long term i say . that will be to the detriment of a2 longer term as there local businesses will operate out of NZ and ship to china , dont need a2 or fonterra anymore.

[reon1]

in reply to people who say where are they going to get a2 milk from -

taxation benefits will be offered to companies that establish dairy manufacturing facilities overseas was included in mondays statement.

china have and are already aquiring milk factories ( westland milk the latest) in NZ . What stopping them aquiring a2 milk supply to there factories to make a2 infant formula in NZ. ? nothing long term i say . that will be to the detriment of a2 longer term as there local businesses will operate out of NZ and ship to china , dont need a2 or fonterra anymore.

Agree, Westland suppliers are already converting herds to A2.

[percy]

Are the Chinese dairy herds made up of mainly A1 or A2 cows.?

[reon1]

I couldn't say. Many of our dairy heifer exports to China have included A1 animals that converting herds have decided not to keep. But they're a drop in the bucket to their genetic pool.

[couta1]

in reply to people who say where are they going to get a2 milk from -

taxation benefits will be offered to companies that establish dairy manufacturing facilities overseas was included in mondays statement.

china have and are already aquiring milk factories ( westland milk the latest) in NZ . What stopping them aquiring a2 milk supply to there factories to make a2 infant formula in NZ. ? nothing long term i say . that will be to the detriment of a2 longer term as there local businesses will operate out of NZ and ship to china , dont need a2 or fonterra anymore. Yawn wake me up when were back to $16 odd.

[kiora]

Are the Chinese dairy herds made up of mainly A1 or A2 cows.?

A2: they have few Jersey cows

[minimoke]

A2: they have few Jersey cowsI think you mean A1 / A2. Jerseys good for A2. 80% of chinese cows are Chinese Holstein. Holsteins have teh A1 beta caesin

[winner69]

No worries re China supply .....as long as we continue to suck up to the PRC (that’s the point Jacobi was making, he’s the CEO of the NZ China Council)

https://nzchinacouncil.org.nz/2019/06/dont-panic-miss-muffett/

[BlackPeter]

No worries re China supply .....as long as we continue to suck up to the PRC (that’s the point Jacobi was making, he’s the CEO of the NZ China Council)

https://nzchinacouncil.org.nz/2019/06/dont-panic-miss-muffett/

He used a different term: "listening to each other".


It’s not rocket science. If we want China to listen to us, we need to listen to them too.


Listening to the other and considering their interests as well is not "sucking up", but just an indication of mutual respect.

[winner69]

He used a different term: "listening to each other".



Listening to the other and considering their interests as well is not "sucking up", but just an indication of mutual respect.

But I get the impression that the listening is a bit one way .....and then we don’t mention a lot of things they should listen too in case we ‘upset’ them ....is that mutual respect?

[Balance]

But I get the impression that the listening is a bit one way .....and then we don’t mention a lot of things they should listen too in case we ‘upset’ them ....is that mutual respect?

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/06/06/business/huawei-russia-5g.html

Best ask Jacinda, our wonderful broken promises leader prone to symbolism (like wearing the hijau - symbol of female suppression) who seem to think that Huawei is such a grave security threat when the Russians, UK, Germans and most of Asia do not think so.

Guess China begs to disagree?

[BlackPeter]

But I get the impression that the listening is a bit one way .....and then we don’t mention a lot of things they should listen too in case we ‘upset’ them ....is that mutual respect?

Nobody is perfect, not even us ;); But actually - I think the Chinese are a hell of a lot better in listening to and respecting others than our so called "friends" in the US. Could you imagine anybody being worse in listening to and respecting others than Trump or the people who put him into power?

[minimoke]

Nobody is perfect, not even us ;); But actually - I think the Chinese are a hell of a lot better in listening to and respecting others than our so called "friends" in the US. Could you imagine anybody being worse in listening to and respecting others than Trump or the people who put him into power?Rubbish.

Americans are very good trade partners. mainly because they work using the same western time frames as us. The Chinese are a whole new level - they take a much longer view of things. This doesn't make them untrustworthy - it just means we have to get better at understanding their game tactics.

[BlackPeter]

Rubbish.

Americans are very good trade partners. mainly because they work using the same western time frames as us. The Chinese are a whole new level - they take a much longer view of things. This doesn't make them untrustworthy - it just means we have to get better at understanding their game tactics.

Take off the blinkers. At least in the newer history it is the Americans breaking contracts as their bully president pleases. Give me one example for an international agreement the Chinese have broken. US is in the business of breaking their word and their contracts. Remember - its America first, anybody else does not matter.

But we probably should move this discussion on a more appropriate thread ...

[Ggcc]

Rubbish.

Americans are very good trade partners. mainly because they work using the same western time frames as us. The Chinese are a whole new level - they take a much longer view of things. This doesn't make them untrustworthy - it just means we have to get better at understanding their game tactics.
I have heard that Western people tend to plan in 10s of years while the Chinese plan in the 100 years. Why do you think they are buying water bottling plants for?? Water will become the new gold in 50 years time. You cant eat or drink gold in large quantities.

[Balance]

Nobody is perfect, not even us ;); But actually - I think the Chinese are a hell of a lot better in listening to and respecting others than our so called "friends" in the US. Could you imagine anybody being worse in listening to and respecting others than Trump or the people who put him into power?

Agreed.

The behaviour and actions of Trump & those who support him are best indicators of a nation in terminal decline, which like Rome before its demise attempts to subjugate other countries and peoples through pure military might.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CEQTo9usai4

The threat of 5G & Huawei to the US - in great perspective!

And our Jacinda swallowed it whole. :p

[Balance]

Americans are very good trade partners. mainly because they work using the same western time frames as us.

In the good old days, yes.

Not since they started pulling the wool over everyone's eyes with their so-called trade deals which have the world (especially China & Asia) supplying goods & services at cheap prices - with the yanks paying by their ever growing debts!

Then, there's the GFC etc etc.

Talk to the folks in ex-Telecom and they will tell you how the Americans played NZers for suckers - buying a world class company, stripping out billions of dollars of returns and left behind a second rate telecommunication company and infrastructure.

[Leftfield]

Seems while some have concerns re Chinese plans to increase their domestic milk supply, the Chinese Navy recognise a profitable product when they see it and stock up before they leave Australia.

Here's the story and pics. (https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7116283/Chinese-soldiers-spotted-loading-ships-BABY-FORMULA-five-day-visit-Sydney.html) Great advertising for A2. LOL

[Jonboyz]

Seems while some have concerns re Chinese plans to increase their domestic milk supply, the Chinese Navy recognise a profitable product when they see it and stock up before they leave Australia.

Here's the story and pics. (https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7116283/Chinese-soldiers-spotted-loading-ships-BABY-FORMULA-five-day-visit-Sydney.html) Great advertising for A2. LOL

Reminds me of Doomsday preppers. Maybe they know something we don’t...

[Lewylewylewy]

I read an article on scmp saying how China is moving to decrease reliance on trade for items that pose a risk to the country. So it's not just milk. Good job trump lol. We now have less and less to protect the world from the risk of war.

[Balance]

I read an article on scmp saying how China is moving to decrease reliance on trade for items that pose a risk to the country. So it's not just milk. Good job trump lol. We now have less and less to protect the world from the risk of war.

Relax.

The mutual destruction via nuclear war doctrine still applies.

Americans love their easy lives too much to risk annihilation.

[Leftfield]

Reminds me of Doomsday preppers. Maybe they know something we don’t...

No conspiracy theory IMHO - merely sailors trying to make a buck!

No wonder A2 Infant Formula is referred to as 'white gold' as Chinese families strive to do the best for their 'little emperors.'

[sb9]

Seems while some have concerns re Chinese plans to increase their domestic milk supply, the Chinese Navy recognise a profitable product when they see it and stock up before they leave Australia.

Here's the story and pics. (https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7116283/Chinese-soldiers-spotted-loading-ships-BABY-FORMULA-five-day-visit-Sydney.html) Great advertising for A2. LOL

Its GOLD, isn't it. Sort of advertisement that's really priceless.

Well, with ASX closed today for Queens B'day we're on our own today.

[see weed]

Here's an issue for someone to figure out. At 4.40pm had an order to buy 1500 ATM at $14.32c. 260 went through at $14.32, the rest sat there until about 4.45pm...the closing off period. At 4.46pm could see sellers building up, so thought, that's good, will get the rest of them at a cheaper price. At 4.47pm more of my order started going through at $14.32c. Then at 4.48pm most of my order went through at $14.32c. The closing price was $14.19c. Have I been ripped of by ASB securities by 13c? And now for the opposite situation.... if there were more buyers than sellers at close, and sp closed at eg $14.40c, then would ASB have given me the remaining order at $14.32c at 4.48pm with closing price of $14.40c.:t_down::confused::scared:.

[couta1]

Here's an issue for someone to figure out. At 4.40pm had an order to buy 1500 ATM at $14.32c. 260 went through at $14.32, the rest sat there until about 4.45pm...the closing off period. At 4.46pm could see sellers building up, so thought, that's good, will get the rest of them at a cheaper price. At 4.47pm more of my order started going through at $14.32c. Then at 4.48pm most of my order went through at $14.32c. The closing price was $14.19c. Have I been ripped of by ASB securities by 13c? And now for the opposite situation.... if there were more buyers than sellers at close, and sp closed at eg $14.40c, then would ASB have given me the remaining order at $14.32c at 4.48pm with closing price of $14.40c.:t_down::confused::scared:. From 4.45pm no more of your shares should have gone through and you should have got the rest at $14.19 due to the match price process. I was involved with the stock most of the day so thought the closing price was also odd because the match price is meant to smooth out large anomalies which stood at $14.49 VWAP before the close so that's quite unusual also.PS-Check the actual transaction times of your orders as there may have been a lag between sale time and when you saw them come through. PPS- No ASB would not have given you the remaining order at $14.32, your order would remain partially traded.

[kiora]

Here's an issue for someone to figure out. At 4.40pm had an order to buy 1500 ATM at $14.32c. 260 went through at $14.32, the rest sat there until about 4.45pm...the closing off period. At 4.46pm could see sellers building up, so thought, that's good, will get the rest of them at a cheaper price. At 4.47pm more of my order started going through at $14.32c. Then at 4.48pm most of my order went through at $14.32c. The closing price was $14.19c. Have I been ripped of by ASB securities by 13c? And now for the opposite situation.... if there were more buyers than sellers at close, and sp closed at eg $14.40c, then would ASB have given me the remaining order at $14.32c at 4.48pm with closing price of $14.40c.:t_down::confused::scared:.

They just matched your order with another one of their own clients.Standard practice isn't it?

[couta1]

They just matched your order with another one of their own clients.Standard practice isn't it? They cant do that during the match price period unless the whole order was completed before 4.45pm which it could have been.

[see weed]

They cant do that during the match price period unless the whole order was completed before 4.45pm which it could have been.
I phoned ASB securities, and about 76% of that order went through just a few seconds before 4.45pm. The remaining 350 odd went through at $4.19c on close. There was a lag time of about 2 or 3 minutes for it to show up on my ASB order status view my trades page. Suppose I can't complain, at least some went through at $14.19c. ASB has been good to me over the years.

[see weed]

They just matched your order with another one of their own clients.Standard practice isn't it?
I hope not, the FMA might find out and send them to the cleaners.

[couta1]

I hope not, the FMA might find out and send them to the cleaners. Apart from match price times they can indeed match your order in house should they so wish.

[see weed]

Apart from match price times they can indeed match your order in house should they so wish.
Well I have learnt my lesson, and will try to be more careful around the 4.42pm to 4.50pm and match off time to 5pm.

[couta1]

Well folks I'm about to take a forum Sabbatical, time for a few lurkers to sharpen up their keyboard and contribution skills. PS-Will be back in the spring if I'm still in one piece after the ski season.

[longy]

Well folks I'm about to take a forum Sabbatical, time for a few lurkers to sharpen up their keyboard and contribution skills. PS-Will be back in the spring if I'm still in one piece after the ski season.

Have a good one Couta1.

[Balance]

I phoned ASB securities, and about 76% of that order went through just a few seconds before 4.45pm. The remaining 350 odd went through at $4.19c on close. There was a lag time of about 2 or 3 minutes for it to show up on my ASB order status view my trades page. Suppose I can't complain, at least some went through at $14.19c. ASB has been good to me over the years.

$14.56 now so ASB has indeed been good to you again!

[see weed]

Had a little laugh this morning at ASB Morning Brief NZ Market Report..........Stating...The dairy exporters also declined with A2 milk down 1.5% to $114.19c:D. It might be true in a couple of years;).

[Balance]

Had a little laugh this morning at ASB Morning Brief NZ Market Report..........Stating...The dairy exporters also declined with A2 milk down 1.5% to $114.19c:D. It might be true in a couple of years;).

$114.19?

Makes the crossing to you at $14.19 even more generous!

[Leftfield]

Extract from a recent article in the Australian (via HC) FYI....... ATM/A2M undervalued because.....

"... put simply, the a2 share price does not keep up with the a2 profitability. If you look at the stock’s five-year performance it is a very attractive 79 per cent per year. However, if you look at the stock’s underlying profitability — as measured by its earning per share — it has risen annually over the past five years by 118 per cent. A2 is actually underrated, not overrated, by the market."

[MauroNZ]

Extract from a recent article in the Australian (via HC) FYI....... ATM/A2M undervalued because.....

"... put simply, the a2 share price does not keep up with the a2 profitability. If you look at the stock’s five-year performance it is a very attractive 79 per cent per year. However, if you look at the stock’s underlying profitability — as measured by its earning per share — it has risen annually over the past five years by 118 per cent. A2 is actually underrated, not overrated, by the market."

Then would be interesting to see if someone has actually looked at those figures, not me unfortunately.

[Leftfield]

Then would be interesting to see if someone has actually looked at those figures, not me unfortunately.

Holders gains in that time are thankfully living proof of them.

[Ggcc]

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/ATM/335956/301546.pdf

I love how there is part of the message in Details for: UBS Switzerland AG. I got too excited.

[BlackPeter]

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/ATM/335956/301546.pdf

I love how there is part of the message in Details for: UBS Switzerland AG. I got too excited.





Aren't they shorters? Anybody volunteering to go the attached trade records and check whether they made a profit so far?

[MauroNZ]

Holders gains in that time are thankfully living proof of them.

I guess you are right mate.

[sb9]

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/ATM/335956/301546.pdf

I love how there is part of the message in Details for: UBS Switzerland AG. I got too excited.


UBS are notorious for shorting the crap out of ATM. They're getting ready for a short attack imo.

[Ggcc]

UBS are notorious for shorting the crap out of ATM. They're getting ready for a short attack imo.
Yes they might, I am sure though that when ATM releases their figures it might stun a few people. Especially with their longterm outlook, maybe even stunning myself. Then we can watch shorters panic.

[mondograss]

I'm not sure that UBS themselves do the shorting. I think they just lend the shares that shorters use. But it makes sense that they'd stock up in anticipation of some heavier shorting activity.

[Sideshow Bob]

Yes they might, I am sure though that when ATM releases their figures it might stun a few people. Especially with their longterm outlook, maybe even stunning myself. Then we can watch shorters panic.

Last year their update was 12th of July. Potentially a month to go until further news.

[Ggcc]

Last year their update was 12th of July. Potentially a month to go until further news.
Yep and until then shorters will probably do well. It’s not my kind of game as I am a longterm Investor with this. I might sell a few if it got to $20 for rebalancing

[cymonger]

I would suggest anyone who is having doubts about this short term drop to take a deep breath. Now go look at the 2016 numbers next to the 2017 numbers. Next, look at the 2017 numbers next to the 2018 numbers.

This company is growing at a massive pace. These current fears about China, Trump, etc. just don't hold up in the face of the maths. Stay the course. Don't be rattled by emotion based drops in the share price. Remember that for every seller there is a buyer. That guy buying understands the maths and the silliness of short-term irrational markets.


This thing is gonna fly. Has ALREADY flown. Now steel your nerves and enjoy the ride.

[winner69]

Any updated Lyttleton shipping data available?

[sb9]

Over past 3 days(incl today) on ASX after market close parcels of 800k, 800k and 780k were crossed. Someone is soaking up nicely.

[BlackPeter]

Over past 3 days(incl today) on ASX after market close parcels of 800k, 800k and 780k were crossed. Someone is soaking up nicely.

And someone is selling a lot ...

[sb9]

And someone is selling a lot ...

Sure and without dropping price too drastically...

[see weed]

Over past 3 days(incl today) on ASX after market close parcels of 800k, 800k and 780k were crossed. Someone is soaking up nicely.
Have also noticed ASX A2m sp drops away 5c or 10c after the NZX ATM 5pm close every day for last couple of weeks. ??? That would be just after 3pm Aussi time every day.???

[Yoda]

The kifar yogurt that we have grown over the last few years does hugely better with A2 organic milk than any other we have tried. Just sayin..... grains grow much faster. So A2 definaitly does have something different. Yea yea, it wont move the SP:p

[Leftfield]

The kifar yogurt that we have grown over the last few years does hugely better with A2 organic milk than any other we have tried. Just sayin..... grains grow much faster. So A2 definaitly does have something different. ...

I'm not surprised....my retirement portfolio has also grown over the last few years... hugely better with A2 organic milk than any other share! :t_up:

[see weed]

I'm not surprised....my retirement portfolio has also grown over the last few years... hugely better with A2 organic milk than any other share! :t_up:
You can say that again, 2800% since the 50c days:D. But is a2 organic?

[winner69]

UBS were busy end of last week .....

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/ATM/336083/301728.pdf

[BlackPeter]

You can say that again, 2800% since the 50c days:D. But is a2 organic?

I recon you can grow any natural agricultural product "organically" - Stop using artificial fertilizer, reduce animal numbers and feed them without adding chemicals and antibiotics ...

So yes, A2 milk can be produced organically (same with any other milk), but no, it would not be organically produced just because it is A2.

[longy]

UBS were busy end of last week .....

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/ATM/336083/301728.pdf

So that was a quick 4% or so quick profit for them?

[Ggcc]

https://www.shortman.com.au/stock?q=A2M

You can see that downward pressure in share price has a direct link to the increase in shorts made on this stock. Shorters are winning for now, until the price reverses and it will do if the powerhouse continues to expand at a rapid pace. We will see in a couple of months as to how things are progressing with the company.

[see weed]

https://www.shortman.com.au/stock?q=A2M

You can see that downward pressure in share price has a direct link to the increase in shorts made on this stock. Shorters are winning for now, until the price reverses and it will do if the powerhouse continues to expand at a rapid pace. We will see in a couple of months as to how things are progressing with the company.
Less than a couple of months, more like a couple of weeks or three. Make hay while the sun shines. Could go back to $17 in no time. Thanks to the shorters, we can get good bargains:t_up:.

[dreamcatcher]

Chinese retail giant JD which started 618 shopping festival 1st - 18th June recorded $29.2 Billion an increase of 26.6% from last year.

https://technode.com/2019/06/19/lower-tier-cities-upgraded-goods-power-jds-618-shopping-promotion/

[Leftfield]

Chinese retail giant JD which started 618 shopping festival 1st - 18th June recorded $29.2 Billion an increase of 26.6% from last year.
https://technode.com/2019/06/19/lower-tier-cities-upgraded-goods-power-jds-618-shopping-promotion/

As we get closer to the next likely trading update from ATM (Last year around 12 July,) the tension rises. The negative's have boosted the short holdings which are now at around 5.5%, See it here (https://www.shortman.com.au/stock?q=A2m).

Meanwhile the positive's over in the HC thread are citing anecdotal evidence of A2s internet sales booming in China (I've seen estimates of IF sales increases up 250% on LY is some channels), other anecdotal tales that A2 has restricted its Australia IF sales to the same vols as LY, and is forwarding all it's additional production into China and Asia where it gets higher margins.

Overall I'm picking ATM will report sales above the market expectations of a 40% increase. Will they reach a 50% revenue increase?? Or will the shorts win?? Interesting times ahead.

[Ggcc]

Looks like a big drop in ASX A2M. Those shorters love to party and are currently making great money

[dr_]

Looks like a big drop in ASX A2M. Those shorters love to party and are currently making great money

ASX Options & futures exportation day today

[bull....]

$14 support

[Ggcc]

https://www.nbr.co.nz/article/analysts-optimistic-about-eventual-a2-milk-takeover-offer-jr-p-176059

https://www.nbr.co.nz/article/a2-milk-could-become-takeover-target-again-fund-manager-jr-p-194197

Behind paywalls. When were these articles written

[forest]

https://www.nbr.co.nz/article/analysts-optimistic-about-eventual-a2-milk-takeover-offer-jr-p-176059

https://www.nbr.co.nz/article/a2-milk-could-become-takeover-target-again-fund-manager-jr-p-194197

Behind paywalls. When were these articles written

2015 and 2016

[Balance]

2015 and 2016

Fonterra missed its one great opportunity, opted to invest (again!) in China and lost another $500m instead of making billions for its farmers.

[Ggcc]

2015 and 2016

Thanks. I still think that at some stage an offer will come onto the table again, but how much will they offer in this difficult time with China wanting to boost local production over imports?

[sb9]

Fonterra missed its one great opportunity, opted to invest (again!) in China and lost another $500m instead of making billions for its farmers.

Thanks goodness Fonterra didn't invest in A2, they would've made to sure to kill a2 milk concept.

[Balance]

Thanks goodness Fonterra didn't invest in A2, they would've made to sure to kill a2 milk concept.

Sobering thought! So true!

[sb9]

Sobering thought! So true!

And we wouldn't have been lucky to have our retirement sorted out :p

[Sideshow Bob]

I can't read the articles but was led to believe by an early shareholder that Fonterra had an opportunity long before that - maybe 2011/12 to take them out for 50c/share.

We would never have known how much fun we would have missed!

[Leftfield]

Found this HC post/picture by Rallycaps today v interesting.
10633

Rallycaps notes that A2 milk has gone from 3 facings to 7 in this Kroger's owned Marioano's grocery store. A2 is also in prime top shelf position plus, the second shelf is dominated by an ad for A2 'lactose free' milk.

Very encouraging to see A2's progress in this important USA niche market.

[gbogo]

sizeable Head and Shoulders pattern on chart suggests break bow $14 would see $11 fairly quickly; hard to see that myself..

[Joshuatree]

More regs on the E commerce platform
Download Document 165.06KB (https://hotcopper.com.au/documentembed?id=uOMxKKzFkiWRTLKhOROKAxjvSDYL4gu5y xT%2Fv%2FYL8rFiGug%3D)

[dr_]

sizeable Head and Shoulders pattern on chart suggests break bow $14 would see $11 fairly quickly; hard to see that myself..

NZX ATM chart is not relevant....the price is driven out from ASX. The real chart for A2M is on ASX.:cool:

[Sideshow Bob]

NZX ATM chart is not relevant....the price is driven out from ASX. The real chart for A2M is on ASX.:cool:

Focus has to be on the next update.....last year was 12th of July.....

[bull....]

broke the $14 support level , see what happens by end of day for significance

[Ggcc]

Anyone wanting to take a 5% shareholding in A2 is looking at a great opportunity for the long term approach. I won’t be selling any time soon and am waiting for the possible takeover or I will continue to hold longterm. Either way good for me.

[Balance]

11m additional shares shorted in the last 3 weeks - https://www.shortman.com.au/stock?q=a2m

There is something perverse in the shorting - they were covering at ever higher prices until a months ago, and now they are shorting at decreasing prices.

Coming back for more punishment?

Sell low, buy high.

Bizarre! :D

[sb9]

broke the $14 support level , see what happens by end of day for significance

Nice, back on my wish list for more accumulation.

[dr_]

Nice, back on my wish list for more accumulation.

yep, in next 3-4 months it will reach another high.

if you are a2 believer then ride through rough waves....

A2 is 70% of my portfolio and up over 450% since 2016 :cool:. one of the my best performing investment since 2016.....



Unrealised P/L
(NZD)
% of Portfolio





486.9%
73%

[Valuegrowth]

https://www.raskmedia.com.au/2019/06/21/why-the-a2-milk-asxa2m-share-price-is-falling/

Why The A2 Milk (ASX:A2M) Share Price Is Falling

[RGR367]

https://www.raskmedia.com.au/2019/06/21/why-the-a2-milk-asxa2m-share-price-is-falling/

Why The A2 Milk (ASX:A2M) Share Price Is Falling

Click bait form for it said nothing of value but just an introduction to another report for its readers.

[Leftfield]

Click bait form for it said nothing of value but just an introduction to another report for its readers.

Agree, hardly a credible article.

[Valuegrowth]

According to following link this company may add value for shareholders over time and by 2022, ATM’s earnings should reach NZ$368m, from current levels of NZ$196m, resulting in an annual growth rate of 21%.

https://simplywall.st/stocks/nz/food-beverage-tobacco/nzx-atm/a2-milk-shares/news/how-do-analysts-see-the-a2-milk-company-limited-nzseatm-performing-over-the-next-year/

[Lewylewylewy]

At the moment, it's more a question of how far it can drop before plateauing or more comforting news is released that helps investors calculate future returns in light of the new playing field.

[44wishlists]

Last year even ATM reported a very solid report, but SP price still tanked. Pundits said the numbers were below their expectation, but sincerely the figures that they were expecting were way over the moon. So I don't think the SP would follow a similar trend this year, particularly considering what UBS has done in recent weeks. Testing the major support zone at AU$12.57 (~NZD$13.19) is very likely.

[bull....]

might be breaking down thru 14 support

[Baa_Baa]

Gloomy start to the week, here's a 'freshen up' remind us to keep an eye on the prize. Could be a cracker time to be buying this SP weakness heading into the mid July reporting.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/important-sentiment-driving-a2-milks-011727018.html "During five years of share price growth, a2 Milk achieved compound earnings per share (EPS) growth of 118% per year. This EPS growth is higher than the 79% average annual increase in the share price. Therefore, it seems the market has become relatively pessimistic about the company."

[dr_]

A2 Milk Company Ltd (ASX: A2M) (https://www.%2A%2A%2A%2A%2A%2A%2A%2A.au/company/A2+Milk+Company+Ltd/?ticker=ASX-A2M)
According to a note out of the Macquarie equities desk, its analysts have retained their outperformrating and lifted the price target on this infant formula and fresh milk company’s shares to AUD $16.10. Macquarie made the move after looking deeper into the company’s opportunity in the fresh milk market in the United States. Its analysts note that a2 Milk Company is growing its market share in the country and has forecast a 2% share over a 10-year period. I agree with Macquarie on a2 Milk Company and would also class its shares as a buy.

[Sideshow Bob]

Circa 18 days to the next update. Last year dropped after the July update, but already gone from peak of almost $17 to sub $14 this morning.

[BlackPeter]

Gloomy start to the week, here's a 'freshen up' remind us to keep an eye on the prize. Could be a cracker time to be buying this SP weakness heading into the mid July reporting.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/important-sentiment-driving-a2-milks-011727018.html "During five years of share price growth, a2 Milk achieved compound earnings per share (EPS) growth of 118% per year. This EPS growth is higher than the 79% average annual increase in the share price. Therefore, it seems the market has become relatively pessimistic about the company."

I think the market just realises they won't keep growing their earnings with a 118 CAGR. Do the sums yourself.

I think the market is right ...

[Baa_Baa]

I think the market just realises they won't keep growing their earnings with a 118 CAGR. Do the sums yourself.

I think the market is right ...

I think the market has already priced in lower CAGR, and I'll be doing my sums when I have the July reporting data, then we can see whether the market has under estimated, overestimated or about right. In any event, I'm happy with my holdings and looking to increase as this current SP weakness plays out.

Bon voyage.

[dr_]

AU top brokers just lifted their price target above AUD16 and rating screaming buy :t_up:

[Leftfield]

AU top brokers just lifted their price target above AUD16 and rating screaming buy :t_up:

Good on you dr..... the market seems to agree with you today.

[Balance]

Good on you dr..... the market seems to agree with you today.

Sp action this morning (drop) vs when ASX opened (up) - proving that NZX is but a shadow market of the real market (ASX) for ATM.

Pathetic mickey mouse exchange - that's the NZX.

[Baa_Baa]

Sp action this morning (drop) vs when ASX opened (up) - proving that NZX is but a shadow market of the real market (ASX) for ATM.

Nervous nellies served up a $0.44 or 3% swing trade (at time of this post) for those who bought the 13.85 and sold 14.25. Not saying I did, just fascinating that the volatility must be a savvy traders dream.

Also quite happy that ATM plunged to within a whisker of the 0.382 FIB retrace (I have it about 13.80) and bounced, close to the middle of my TA support zone 14.20 - 13.30 (also close to the 200EMA 13.63).

[dr_]

A2 Milk boss plays down impacts of infant formula regulations in China

The a2 Milk Company boss Jayne Hrdlicka has downplayed worries that new Chinese regulations will hurt its position in the biggest formula market in the world, which is seeking to support local players as it looks to become more self-sufficient.

https://www.afr.com/business/retail/a2-milk-boss-plays-down-impacts-of-infant-formula-regulations-in-china-20190621-p5205r

[Ggcc]

https://youtu.be/T9IIA7ib_W0

[carrom74]

https://youtu.be/T9IIA7ib_W0

Made my day!

Hope everyone is!!:)

[sb9]

Made my day!

Hope everyone is!!:)

Bugger...moved up too fast for me, was hoping for a top up under $14 mark. Never mind still WIN :D

[44wishlists]

Be patient and buy the deep red afternoons is the go.

[sb9]

http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/6e784e7e/dairy-sales-push-may-exports-to-record-high.html

Another record high month of dairy exports for May.

[Leftfield]

Made my day! Hope everyone is!!:)

Yep v happy! Go ATM. Onwards and upwards towards results release.

[Ggcc]

Be patient and buy the deep red afternoons is the go.
Usually it does dip in the afternoon, maybe not today?

We have been in a prolonged downward trend and maybe, just maybe we are seeing the small signs of a starting uptrend as results might be better than thought after the Chinese announcement

[dr_]

Usually it does dip in the afternoon, maybe not today?

We have been in a prolonged downward trend and maybe, just maybe we are seeing the small signs of a starting uptrend as results might be better than thought after the Chinese announcement

normally rise, rinse & repeat happens 2-3 per day on ASX...but maybe not today.

[Baa_Baa]

http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/6e784e7e/dairy-sales-push-may-exports-to-record-high.html

Another record high month of dairy exports for May.

Large volumes overall, beating last years same month which was the high for that year. Aussies like it, A2M technical gap up and breakout of the declining resistance trend line from 16 May, now support.

[Leftfield]

Usually it does dip in the afternoon, maybe not today? We have been in a prolonged downward trend and maybe, just maybe we are seeing the small signs of a starting uptrend as results might be better than thought after the Chinese announcement

I doubt we will see the SP below $NZ 14 again.... ever! How's that for a bold prediction!! :p (Subject to Trump's war not breaking out in the next month or so!! E&OE DYOR etc etc!!!)

[sb9]

Large volumes overall, beating last years same month which was the high for that year. Aussies like it, A2M technical gap up and breakout of the declining resistance trend line from 16 May, now support.

Yes, some big numbers last year May and they beat those volume numbers for current year May as per the poster jzhuang on HC.

Going by attached file as per below, we could roughly expect a growth between 40%-50% for A2 earnings for FY19.

[Sideshow Bob]

While exports paint an overall picture, I don't think too much can be read into it for A2 - a bit of a pimple in terms of volume. Fonterra turns over $20b a year, Synlait another $1b, Open Country probably the same, then add in Westland, Tatua, Oceania, Mataura Valley, etc etc.

Value can be explained by prices and FX rates, volume can be milk season or what form it takes when exported. Production was 2.4% up nationally this past season.

Something to speculate on, on a quiet Tuesday arvo, but next update will reveal more. Circa 17 days to go now......

[sb9]

While exports paint an overall picture, I don't think too much can be read into it for A2 - a bit of a pimple in terms of volume. Fonterra turns over $20b a year, Synlait another $1b, Open Country probably the same, then add in Westland, Tatua, Oceania, Mataura Valley, etc etc.

Value can be explained by prices and FX rates, volume can be milk season or what form it takes when exported. Production was 2.4% up nationally this past season.

Something to speculate on, on a quiet Tuesday arvo, but next update will reveal more. Circa 17 days to go now......

Agree with you, however that data as per my previous post is just for Lyttelton port (Chch) wherein majority of quantity is representative of Synlait's volume.

[Sideshow Bob]

Agree with you, however that data as per my previous post is just for Lyttelton port (Chch) wherein majority of quantity is representative of Synlait's volume.

Thanks - Is that just IF?

[dr_]

Thanks - Is that just IF?

believe so just IF

https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/nz-exports-update-may-18-if-exports-analysis.4270776/page-204?post_id=39222706

[sb9]

Thanks - Is that just IF?

I'm afraid can't confirm that, but would say majority likely to be IF.

[stealthmaster]

continuing to go up

[Ggcc]

continuing to go up
Australia determines whether we go up or down. I do believe it will continue to go up for the week, unless Trump blows his Trumpet then down we go.

[dr_]

One broker that believes it isn’t too late to buy the fast-growing company’s shares is Goldman Sachs.
According to a note out of the investment bank on Tuesday, its analysts have retained their buy rating on a2 Milk Company’s shares following the release of infant formula export data.
Goldman has also retained its AUD $15.70 price target on its shares, which implies potential upside of almost 14% over the next 12 months.
What export data was released?

The note reveals that total infant formula exports (by net weight) from Lyttelton, New Zealand to Australia, Hong Kong, and China increased to 4.24k MT during May.
This was a 1% increase on the prior corresponding period and a 23% month on month increase.
Goldman was quick to point out that these exports were cycling a particular high comparable period, hence the lower year on year growth figures.
On a rolling 3-month and 6-month basis, total volume growth is an impressive 42% and 47%, respectively, over the prior corresponding periods.
This was in-line with Goldman’s expectations and the broker sees it as supportive of overall trends and its forecasts for both a2 Milk Company and Synlait Milk Ltd (ASX: SM1) (https://www.fool.com.au/company/Synlait+Milk+Ltd/?ticker=ASX-SM1).
Incidentally, Goldman Sachs is also bullish on dairy processor Synlait. It has a buy rating and lofty AUD$11.00 price target on the company’s shares, implying potential upside of almost 25% for its shares over the next 12 months.

[44wishlists]

... Goldman Sachs is also bullish on dairy processor Synlait. It has a buy rating and lofty AUD$11.00 price target on the company’s shares, implying potential upside of almost 25% for its shares over the next 12 months.

GS probably right on the ATM comment. But I am having doubts over their comment on SML. In couple weeks time, we should be able to find out how the ATM and SML performs. Will it be the "Love is the New Hate" relationship between the two companies?

[longy]

I think it has mentioned by another poster on here... I think the SP should climb after June.

[Leftfield]

While not directly related to A2, all is not well in the Australian diary industry..... a couple of interesting articles FYI

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-06-26/dairy-farmers-mass-exodus-from-the-industry/11215730

https://www.abc.net.au/news/rural/2019-06-27/vdl-dairy-in-mutiny-amid-animal-welfare-concerns/11243876?section=business

(Interestingly if my memory is correct this Tasmanian diary producer was once owned by a company associated with A2 founder Howard Patterson)

[freddagg]

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-06-26/dairy-farmers-mass-exodus-from-the-industry/11215730



Jeez those cows are thin. If he cant feed them he should have sold or killed them.

[carrom74]

Can someone please explain with these Aussie trades this morning.... Strange with the price being traded...
10646

[Leftfield]

A2M to take Lion Diary to court over its 'True A2' trade mark.

10649

[Ggcc]

Did anyone see the huge trade on the nzx for A2? Sorry just a few shares on NZX50 have had huge trades

[silu]

Did anyone see the huge trade on the nzx for A2? Sorry just a few shares on NZX50 have had huge trades

You use Directbroking? There seems to be a bug at the moment. Total shares traded x price doesn't make the numbers shown as total value. Serko has same issue and my guess is other stocks too.

[777]

Can someone please explain with these Aussie trades this morning.... Strange with the price being traded...
10646

EP Exercise of Put
EC Exercise of Call

But don't ask me to explain it.

[Ggcc]

You use Directbroking? There seems to be a bug at the moment. Total shares traded x price doesn't make the numbers shown as total value. Serko has same issue and my guess is other stocks too.
Yes I am and the numbers don't match. Look at daily turnover on the NZX is over 1.4 billion dollars....



It looks like it has been rectified

[stealthmaster]

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.cnn.com/cnn/2019/06/28/politics/trade-donald-trump-xi-jinping-g20/index.html Good news trump xi meeting, anticipating big SP rise come monday

[Balance]

EP Exercise of Put
EC Exercise of Call

But don't ask me to explain it.

Exercise of Put - means someone is locking in profits having bought the right to sell ATM at $15, $14.50 and $14 vs sp of $13.80

Exercise of call - means someone is locking in profits having bought the right to buy ATM at $13.50 vs sp of $13.80

[carrom74]

Exercise of Put - means someone is locking in profits having bought the right to sell ATM at $15, $14.50 and $14 vs sp of $13.80

Exercise of call - means someone is locking in profits having bought the right to buy ATM at $13.50 vs sp of $13.80

Thanks Balance... much appreciated.

[bull....]

the herdlicker dump is coming?

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/336883

[Baa_Baa]

the herdlicker dump is coming?

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/336883

We knew the rights issue, the dates as well so no surprise, we also know she intends to sell them, no surprise there either. Won’t stop the market going apoplectic though … lol and people wonder why the shorts have been building their positions. With results only a few weeks away the tug of war longs vs shorts will be entertaining!

[Leftfield]

We knew the rights issue, the dates as well so no surprise, we also know she intends to sell them, no surprise there either...... With results only a few weeks away the tug of war longs vs shorts will be entertaining!

Agree... interesting times ahead.

In the meantime there was a v interesting post by Ihantian over in HC who posted pics of long queues outside a new Melbourne outlet selling 'bubble milk tea' ..... great to see A2 expanding in other asian markets through this liquid A2 milk strategy. Here's the snippet.

"From wechat article, a new Bubble Milk Tea store open in Bourke Street. Long q and famous brand from Taiwan. Store name called Jenjudan. Only use a2 milk. Translated from the article : only Australian made premium A2 milk used in this store. Now bubble milk tea is a hit throughout all asian countries: malaysia, singapore, taiwan and china, another market for A2M to look into. If A2M can utilize to impose that it is a high quality milk then another huge potential market."

[silu]

Agree... interesting times ahead.

In the meantime there was a v interesting post by Ihantian over in HC who posted pics of long queues outside a new Melbourne outlet selling 'bubble milk tea' ..... great to see A2 expanding in other asian markets through this liquid A2 milk strategy. Here's the snippet.

"From wechat article, a new Bubble Milk Tea store open in Bourke Street. Long q and famous brand from Taiwan. Store name called Jenjudan. Only use a2 milk. Translated from the article : only Australian made premium A2 milk used in this store. Now bubble milk tea is a hit throughout all asian countries: malaysia, singapore, taiwan and china, another market for A2M to look into. If A2M can utilize to impose that it is a high quality milk then another huge potential market."

Hmm they must be in a partnership with A2 Milk because why else would their promote A2's fresh milk product in their PR?

[Leftfield]

Hmm they must be in a partnership with A2 Milk because why else would their promote A2's fresh milk product in their PR? Agree...... the strategic alliance could be akin to Coke in McD's (only healthier!)

[silverblizzard888]

Hmm they must be in a partnership with A2 Milk because why else would their promote A2's fresh milk product in their PR?

Well they could be merely trying to say their product is of a better quality since it uses A2 milk, while other milk teas uses lesser milks, so that might boost consumer demand. Think of the people who can't consume normal milk teas due to A2, but can consume A2 milk bubble mlk teas because of this. It opens up a niche market for them too. So doesn't necessarily have to be in a partnership.

[44wishlists]

Agree... interesting times ahead.

In the meantime there was a v interesting post by Ihantian over in HC who posted pics of long queues outside a new Melbourne outlet selling 'bubble milk tea' ..... great to see A2 expanding in other asian markets through this liquid A2 milk strategy. Here's the snippet.

"From wechat article, a new Bubble Milk Tea store open in Bourke Street. Long q and famous brand from Taiwan. Store name called Jenjudan. Only use a2 milk. Translated from the article : only Australian made premium A2 milk used in this store. Now bubble milk tea is a hit throughout all asian countries: malaysia, singapore, taiwan and china, another market for A2M to look into. If A2M can utilize to impose that it is a high quality milk then another huge potential market."

Just checked with the Jenjudan Hong Kong, they are using Meiji 4.3 Deluxe Milk (Japanese brand, the milk is produced in Thailand). So maybe A2 is only used at their Melbourne franchise.

[Leftfield]

Just checked with the Jenjudan Hong Kong, they are using Meiji 4.3 Deluxe Milk (Japanese brand, the milk is produced in Thailand). So maybe A2 is only used at their Melbourne franchise.

Thanks for the detective work 44, so maybe you're right, or maybe this is just early days (as the logistics to supply A4 fresh milk throughout asia won't happen overnight.) Rome wasn't built in a day, and I'm happy with the Melbourne initiative.