ATM - A2 Milk Corporation Limited

[Balance]

With the volume that's been going through some days lately her sale will mean diddly squat. PS-Im actually warming toward her as I reckon her strategy is actually future proofing the company, Geoff was the man for his time but not now.

Agreed. And all credit to the board of ATM for recognising the need for a different approach & manager to take ATM to the next level.

[couta1]

The Kiwi panic merchants setting the tone for the day thought they would get the jump on the Aussies for a change. Lol

[bull....]

The Kiwi panic merchants setting the tone for the day thought they would get the jump on the Aussies for a change. Lol

wait to trump orders a2 to stop dealing with china then your see panic

[iceman]

wait to trump orders a2 to stop dealing with china then your see panic

Probably tell them to make icecream to sell it to the eskimos in Greenland

[dzhang1510]

Is there anyway to look at live prices rather than 20 minute delayed?

[iceman]

Is there anyway to look at live prices rather than 20 minute delayed?

Yes if you have an account. For example with Direct Broking you press "depth" to get up to date info

[couta1]

Yes if you have an account. For example with Direct Broking you press "depth" to get up to date info Only if you've traded in the prior 3 months.

[see weed]

Looking at aussi depth at the moment and exchange rate, would put ATM nz about $14.20c, looking a bit oversold, but that could all change when Aus opens.

[couta1]

Looking at aussi depth at the moment and exchange rate, would put ATM nz about $14.20c, looking a bit oversold, but that could all change when Aus opens. Oversold doesnt count when you have a loose Trumpet running around.

[theflat2]

Hi, If you have made a trade in the last 90 days then you will have access to 'depth' view. This will give you the up to date price and trades.


10732

[Balance]

Looking at aussi depth at the moment and exchange rate, would put ATM nz about $14.20c, looking a bit oversold, but that could all change when Aus opens.

That’s like trying to predict next year’s weather on 1 Jan based upon today’s weather!

[dompf]

That’s like trying to predict next year’s weather on 1 Jan based upon today’s weather!

Be interesting to see if Jayne sells some her shares or (when) timing perhaps is probably the best question.

Going to be another crazy week will be keeping an eye on that US market over night to see if it recovers.

[dzhang1510]

Yes if you have an account. For example with Direct Broking you press "depth" to get up to date info


What if i'm under Craigs and not using direct broking? :(

[sb9]

Be interesting to see if Jayne sells some her shares or (when) timing perhaps is probably the best question.

Going to be another crazy week will be keeping an eye on that US market over night to see if it recovers.

She'll definitely sell them and did make her intentions clear at the time of ASM last year, as its part of her negotiated remuneration package.

[Beagle]

Oversold doesnt count when you have a loose Trumpet running around.

Probably the most frustrating time to be an investor I can recall for many years. You really don't know what's going to happen to the global markets one way or the other from one tweet to the next.

[BlackPeter]

What if i'm under Craigs and not using direct broking? :(

In this case you clearly need to talk with Craigs ... paying more money for lesser service does not sound fair ;);

[Balance]

What if i'm under Craigs and not using direct broking? :(

Just open up an account with Direct or ASB - easy enough.

[Balance]

Probably the most frustrating time to be an investor I can recall for many years. You really don't know what's going to happen to the global markets one way or the other from one tweet to the next.

One can only handle one's own emotions and reactions to what's happening out there as we have no control.

For once, I believe our Reserve Bank governor has moved interest rates ahead of the curve so NZ is reasonably well positioned for the hard landing ahead.

[Balance]

She'll definitely sell them and did make her intentions clear at the time of ASM last year, as its part of her negotiated remuneration package.

In conjunction with the Australian economy being very exposed to China and Jayne selling, looks like A$13 on the cards today. :eek2:

[Beagle]

One can only handle one's own emotions and reactions to what's happening out there as we have no control.

For once, I believe our Reserve Bank governor has moved interest rates ahead of the curve so NZ is reasonably well positioned for the hard landing ahead.

Indeed. One can also make a decision on portfolio asset allocation that's more conservative than normal.

[couta1]

Indeed. One can also make a decision on portfolio asset allocation that's more conservative than normal. Just batten down the hatches and ride it out for most I'd say.

[sb9]

In conjunction with the Australian economy being very exposed to China and Jayne selling, looks like A$13 on the cards today. :eek2:

Looking not too shabby at this stage, it might change later in the arvo though...

[Beagle]

Harbour's view https://www.harbourasset.co.nz/research-and-commentary/a2-milk-steps-up-market-development/

[Leftfield]

Harbour's view https://www.harbourasset.co.nz/research-and-commentary/a2-milk-steps-up-market-development/

Thanks for posting..... a very well balanced view of ATM IMHO. Encouraging SP action today too.

[44wishlists]

Harbour's view https://www.harbourasset.co.nz/research-and-commentary/a2-milk-steps-up-market-development/

Harbour Asset casted a very confident vote on the latest A2 performance.

[Beagle]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12262004

[Beagle]

Thanks for posting..... a very well balanced view of ATM IMHO. Encouraging SP action today too.

You're welcome. Its good to get a variety of clearly articulated opinions.

[sb9]

hammer time today , be watching for a sustained break of support today/ tomorrow at just under 14 on the daily close

Didn't exactly play out that way today.

If anything me thinks the bottom is in. Let's see how the week progresses and sure to see some selling by CEO and execs over this week.

And, more importantly what tweets are going to be out and other macro factors.

[Baa_Baa]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12262004

Good to see she will only sell some of her shares to cover Oz tax on vested rights and wants to build a shareholding in ATM. One less thing for shareholders to worry about ... lol.

[Balance]

Huge volume going through ASX (7.1m as of now) vs 666k relatively pathetic volume going through NZX.

Guess it really is a matter of time before ATM completely decamps to ASX - which to me will be a major positive for the sp.

[sb9]

Good to see she will only sell some of her shares to cover Oz tax on vested rights and wants to build a shareholding in ATM. One less thing for shareholders to worry about ... lol.

For sure, good on her. And the day she actually buys some share with her own money, that'll be a big boost for sp.

One thing though, through all this events unfolding from reporting date of 21st (last Wed), I think it would be wise if the management can host a investor conf call on the same day post realising HY and FY results. That'll help flush out lot of assumptions and needless guesses re the numbers and other matters of interest.

Whereas now, only window we get to ask those question is at time of ASM, until then we hear indirectly through media which may or may not accurate.

[Beagle]

Good to see she will only sell some of her shares to cover Oz tax on vested rights and wants to build a shareholding in ATM. One less thing for shareholders to worry about ... lol.

Yeap, she's started the charm offensive but has a LOT of work to do lol

[dompf]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12262004

Thank you for the share :)

[44wishlists]

For sure, good on her. And the day she actually buys some share with her own money, that'll be a big boost for sp.

One thing though, through all this events unfolding from reporting date of 21st (last Wed), I think it would be wise if the management can host a investor conf call on the same day post realising HY and FY results. That'll help flush out lot of assumptions and needless guesses re the numbers and other matters of interest.

Whereas now, only window we get to ask those question is at time of ASM, until then we hear indirectly through media which may or may not accurate.

You have to understand who are the real shareholders for the company. It's not people like me who holds a good handful of shares, but the big guns who owns the company in unit of %. Do you really think they make money by charging us $20 for brokerage? For high growth stocks such as A2M, this is exact the way how they like it to update the market, and report their result. Totally legit with the NZX/ASX trading rules, and keep the market guessing and playing game. Long term investor, no worries. For traders, it's fantastic.

By the way, except showing there is linkage with A2M associated with NZ production, I don't see any benefit of having A2M listed on NZX, which the market operator is such a joke.

[Balance]

By the way, except showing there is linkage with A2M associated with NZ production, I don't see any benefit of having A2M listed on NZX, which the market operator is such a joke.

Matter of time before ATM decamps to ASX.

Can see the turnover in NZ dropping day by day as most of the stock are now traded via ASX, and it has been a one way flow of stock from NZX to ASX.

Like Xero, we will all be the better for ATM moving to ASX.

[sb9]

You have to understand who are the real shareholders for the company. It's not people like me who holds a good handful of shares, but the big guns who owns the company in unit of %. Do you really think they make money by charging us $20 for brokerage? For high growth stocks such as A2M, this is exact the way how they like it to update the market, and report their result. Totally legit with the NZX/ASX trading rules, and keep the market guessing and playing game. Long term investor, no worries. For traders, it's fantastic.

By the way, except showing there is linkage with A2M associated with NZ production, I don't see any benefit of having A2M listed on NZX, which the market operator is such a joke.

I think you missed my point of my post.

A2 is no more a minuscule as once it was few years back. It now makes $1.3b in revenue and has market cap of over $10bln based on current sp and was over $12bln not that long ago.

To match its market leadership, they need open up lines of communication bit better and provide an opportunity for investor community to elicit more about business around reporting time like many big companies do and some medium ones too. It only adds to their professional approach in dealing with market information and am sure they'll address that aspect soon.

Btw, am long term investor from $0.58c days and see it all unfold over past few years and thanks to the company, dare I say my retirement is almost sorted (which is fair bit away).

[Balance]

https://www.shortman.com.au/stock?q=a2m

Fascinating - shorters actually increased their position by 4m shares on the day of the lower than expected results!

[Traderwannabe]

Thanks for highlighting this information. I understand the basic concept of shorting, but struggle to understand how to read the share price with the shorting information... does it mean that they will have to buy back soon to cover the shares they sold so demand could increase? or will they drive it lower?

[sb9]

https://www.shortman.com.au/stock?q=a2m

Fascinating - shorters actually increased their position by 4m shares on the day of the lower than expected results!

I would expect the short position to increase close to 10% mark from current 6.99%.

[Balance]

Thanks for highlighting this information. I understand the basic concept of shorting, but struggle to understand how to read the share price with the shorting information... does it mean that they will have to buy back soon to cover the shares they sold so demand could increase? or will they drive it lower?

Think supply and demand in simplistic terms.

Shorters borrow stock to sell so they add to the supply - negative for sp.

They have to buy back and when they do, they add to the demand - positive for sp.

I am personally surprised they are adding to their NET short positions as the history of ATM is that shorters get burnt.

[Baa_Baa]

I am personally surprised they are adding to their NET short positions as the history of ATM is that shorters get burnt.

With the SP at or around triple bottom support, showing signs of weakening buyer support on much lower volumes today, maybe the shorts are banking on the 'Jayne news' of selling 'some' of her now vested rights. Not to mention continuing macroeconomic issues which contribute to volatility, currently negative sentiment.

[couta1]

With the SP at or around triple bottom support, showing signs of weakening buyer support on much lower volumes today, maybe the shorts are banking on the 'Jayne news' of selling 'some' of her now vested rights. Not to mention continuing macroeconomic issues which contribute to volatility, currently negative sentiment. Volumes still pretty good and over 1 mill shares moved on the NZX which is above average.

[Baa_Baa]

Volumes still pretty good and over 1 mill shares moved on the NZX which is above average.

Yeah, should've said I was looking at A2M where the real action is. Big fall-off in volume and you'll see it's sold off the gap open and leaked air after a rally closing below yesterdays close. Looks vulnerable to any further negative sentiment.

[Balance]

Yeah, should've said I was looking at A2M where the real action is. Big fall-off in volume and you'll see it's sold off the gap open and leaked air after a rally closing below yesterdays close. Looks vulnerable to any further negative sentiment.

Not a chartist but looks to me on a chart that it is important for A2M to hold the $13.00 price level - if it fails to hold $13, next support point is $11.85 - another 10% downleg?

Comfortable with my remaining holding - A2M sp is still 30% higher than at beginning of the year, albeit 21% lower than its all time high reached this year.

I use BHP as a proxy for assessing how the market is reacting to all the Trump shenanigans - note that its sp is back to where it was at the beginning of the year, and is 17% off its peak.

Kinda tells the story that the market still loves ATM and believes in the story - just a question of how to price the short term (until the China/Trump trade war is settled - one way or the other) share price.

[bull....]

wonder if a2 will get caught up in the bal downdraft? bal results terrible

[couta1]

wonder if a2 will get caught up in the bal downdraft? bal results terrible Doesnt matter cause the Trumpdraft is the one to worry about.

[silu]

wonder if a2 will get caught up in the bal downdraft? bal results terrible

Ooof that's a bad result. Makes the A2 management team's China strategy all the more impressive.

[bull....]

Doesnt matter cause the Trumpdraft is the one to worry about.

your right in the overall scheme of things interesting though bal talk about the lower birth rate being a factor in there results. long term decline in birth rates would mean even natural growth for a2 will stall at some stage and then growth will only come at the expense of others

[carrom74]

wonder if a2 will get caught up in the bal downdraft? bal results terrible

Would it not be the other way around? A2 eating into the market share of BAL and BAL does not have SAMR rego. yet...

I think these types of logic wont matter much when UBS is lending left, right and centre to the shorters... 7% shorts as i type

[Beagle]

https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20190828/pdf/447xx8f4qnwyns.pdf

BAL result posted for comparative purposes. I don't have time to run any analysis but at first glance that's a pretty ugly drop in sales and EBITDA and the outlook isn't very good. Good luck to holders.

[mfd]

your right in the overall scheme of things interesting though bal talk about the lower birth rate being a factor in there results. long term decline in birth rates would mean even natural growth for a2 will stall at some stage and then growth will only come at the expense of others

Even if the number of births reduces, the number of families with young children who are actually able to afford fancy milk powder could easily increase. Perhaps this is a case of BAL trying to spread the blame for their poor result? A2 has had no problem growing at the expense of others in the past, and the scientific case continues to grow.

[couta1]

BAL is quite a different company to A2 and I'm not going to explain it all on here. PS-BAL is one of the most volatile stocks in the world and the day it achieves China Registration the SP will bolt $3-$5 in a single day(Has been $22 before)

[couta1]

Ooof that's a bad result. Makes the A2 management team's China strategy all the more impressive. Lol, the Hotcopper BAL Trolls getting egg all over their faces for their calls on how far BAL would drop after that result.PS-Result not as bad as initial appearances and mainly expected.

[Leftfield]

BAL is quite a different company to A2 and I'm not going to explain it all on here. PS-BAL is one of the most volatile stocks in the world and the day it achieves China Registration the SP will bolt $3-$5 in a single day(Has been $22 before)

FWIW (speaking of BAL volatility) I recall doing very well because of the ASX markets confusion comparing ATM and BAL.

Around 2017 BAL shares fell from around $14 to $5 on stock concerns. The ATM SP was also savaged. My Left Field approach was to greatly increase my ATM holding at discounted prices. Subsequently the ATM SP was strongly upgraded when it was found BAL's stock issues had no relationship to ATM who had negotiated much better supply terms.

Re BAL's latest results (I don't hold or follow) but over on HC Aim for Simon made this post which I copy here FYI.

"Just saying looking at A2 after reading BAL result A2 looks awesome.

Revenue growth 2x BAL
GM"s 12 %higher than BAL
EBITDA Margins 15% higher than BAL or 11% next year
BAL still waiting on the elusive SAMR while A2 Powers ahead
BAL on 32x after today's downgrade while A2 on 25x forward."

[couta1]

I've got big holdings in both companies but my A2 holding is around 3 times more in dollar value, I'm actually seriously in the red with BAL but not selling as I believe they will get registration in due course , I'm just enjoying all those Hot Copper Trolls being totally wrong on where the SP was heading today.

[longy]

your right in the overall scheme of things interesting though bal talk about the lower birth rate being a factor in there results. long term decline in birth rates would mean even natural growth for a2 will stall at some stage and then growth will only come at the expense of others

Other part of Asia is on the card folks... such as Vietnam, Korea, HongKong...


"But a2 was looking to expand into other Asian markets as well."

“As part of this, we undertook increased consumer research and in-market activity in Vietnam, Korea and the city of Hong Kong,” she said.

“Alongside the ongoing work we are doing with Fonterra, the focus continues to be milk powder products in Vietnam, testing a fresh milk presence in Singapore and Korea, and infant formula in the city of Hong Kong.”

Infant nutrition sales in China and other markets in Asia rose 73.4 per cent in value to $NZ393.1 million, accounting for 96.9 per cent of The a2 Milk Company’s sales of all products in the region.

Its specialty a2 liquid milk and other nutritional products make up a relatively minor share of the Asian market.

Ms Hrdlicka said the company’s products were now being distributed in about 16,400 Mother Baby Stores in China. “This channel continues to be an important priority in expanding our brand accessibility and consumer trial,” she said.

Liquid milk is the only one of its a2 products sold in the US, with sales more than doubling during the past year to $NZ34.6 million.

Ms Hrdlicka said the a2 distribution network in the US had expanded 118 per cent to 13,100 stores. US liquid milk sales now equate to about 25 per cent of revenue from the prime Australia and New Zealand market.

[Balance]

https://www.shortman.com.au/stock?q=a2m

Interesting update to the short positions :

6m shares covered by shorters on 22 Aug, after increasing 4m on the day of the results.

So it looks like shorters aggressively sold shares to drive the sp down further on the day of the results, and then started covering from day after.

[sb9]

https://www.shortman.com.au/stock?q=a2m

Interesting update to the short positions :

6m shares covered by shorters on 22 Aug, after increasing 4m on the day of the results.

So it looks like shorters aggressively sold shares to drive the sp down further on the day of the results, and then started covering from day after.

Yeah, did notice that too and was quite intrigued by that pattern in short position.

[Balance]

Yeah, did notice that too and was quite intrigued by that pattern in short position.

Worked that time as sp closed lower again on day 2 after results.

The one thing to note (as Couta as pointed out) is how the NZX sp is manipulated prior to ASX opening. Game for the big boys and for the little minnows in NZ to try ad second guess what's happening and getting burnt.

[Balance]

Worked that time as sp closed lower again on day 2 after results.

The one thing to note (as Couta as pointed out) is how the NZX sp is manipulated prior to ASX opening. Game for the big boys and for the little minnows in NZ to try ad second guess what's happening and getting burnt.

And the pattern of ATM's sp opening & trading higher on NZX, and then going lower when ASX opens continue!

[martinchnz1]

And the pattern of ATM's sp opening & trading higher on NZX, and then going lower when ASX opens continue!

Making some high risk trades to make some gains off that trend?

[Leftfield]

A2 remains Harbour's highest conviction position.....read it here (https://www.harbourasset.co.nz/research-and-commentary/a2-milk-steps-up-market-development/).

"a2 Milk remains Harbour’s highest conviction position in equity growth portfolios. Despite the price fall after announcing its annual results, the share price today is still up 28% so far in 2019.

Our view is unchanged that a2 Milk is on a journey to become a global leader in dairy nutrition. Yesterday’s announcement to significantly increase investment in market development gives us confidence that they are prepared to sacrifice short-term gains in order to pursue large growth options."

[RupertBear]

A2 remains Harbour's highest conviction position.....read it here (https://www.harbourasset.co.nz/research-and-commentary/a2-milk-steps-up-market-development/).

Good read thanks for posting Left Field :)

[flyer]

Exactly, the larger spend on marketing and hiring of new staff is all part of major growth. Their result announcement was fantastic, they will grow their USA sales and just keep on getting stronger. I think the share price at these levels is great to get in at these prices.

[Leftfield]

Two additional takeaways arising from the Harbour analysis;

1.) "We also note that the inventory ‘in transit’ was $30.6mn higher at balance date than last year. We do not know the timing of this but assume it would have been converted to revenue soon after the fiscal year ended. Had this shipment been booked in late 2H19 as opposed to early in 1H20, a2 Milk would have comfortably met the earnings expectations in the market."

2.) The next update from the Company will be at its Strategy Day in Shanghai, China on 17th -18th Sept-2019, where we look for more detail on A2M’s investment in capability and insights on its consumers in China."

Interesting times ahead for A2 and mark Sept 17th - 18th in your diary.

To see the Harbour report.....read it here (https://www.harbourasset.co.nz/research-and-commentary/a2-milk-steps-up-market-development/).

[Miway]

Thanks for that LF. A positive report!


Two additional takeaways arising from the Harbour analysis;

1.) "We also note that the inventory ‘in transit’ was $30.6mn higher at balance date than last year. We do not know the timing of this but assume it would have been converted to revenue soon after the fiscal year ended. Had this shipment been booked in late 2H19 as opposed to early in 1H20, a2 Milk would have comfortably met the earnings expectations in the market."

2.) The next update from the Company will be at its Strategy Day in Shanghai, China on 17th -18th Sept-2019, where we look for more detail on A2M’s investment in capability and insights on its consumers in China."

Interesting times ahead for A2 and mark Sept 17th - 18th in your diary.

To see the Harbour report.....read it here (https://www.harbourasset.co.nz/research-and-commentary/a2-milk-steps-up-market-development/).

[Leftfield]

Shorters increasing ahead of CEO Jayne's next sell-off. A last fling before the Shanghai strategy days 17/19 Sept??

See it here. (https://www.shortman.com.au/stock?q=a2m)

Holders will hold, sellers will sell, buyers will buy. Short term turbulence ahead....

DYOR and take responsibility for your own decisions.

[Balance]

Short term, the jury is out imo on ATM's strategy of spending more in the US (a graveyard for most NZ companies selling products, rather than services) and building up sales via Mothers & Baby stores so the update on 17/19 Sept will be very useful.

So much to happen on the Trade War front until then which is the singular biggest driver of what happens with stocks in general, and specifically with stocks like ATM with exposure to the premium end of the China consumer market.

https://www.investors.com/market-tre...220&yptr=yahoo

"Dow Jones futures fell sharply Monday afternoon, along with S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures. On Sunday, President Donald Trump went ahead with new China tariffs on $110 billion worth of imports, including some Apple (AAPL) products for the first time. Beijing retaliated, further escalating the China trade war."

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/dipl...any-trade-deal

"Chinese state media and government advisers have said Beijing is in no rush for a trade deal, instead warning that any concessions made to the United States would be a grave error."

[RGR367]

My gut feel says the Vulgar_ian Comedian occupying the WH is NOT going to win this Trade War for USA. China is a nation not developed by the concept of "westernized democracy" and not fully understood by the world yet. Gut feel says ATM progress in China won't be affected much by this trade turbulence too. All holders pray that this feeling is right :cool:

[Balance]

My gut feel says the Vulgar_ian Comedian occupying the WH is NOT going to win this Trade War for USA. China is a nation not developed by the concept of "westernized democracy" and not fully understood by the world yet. Gut feel says ATM progress in China won't be affected much by this trade turbulence too. All holders pray that this feeling is right :cool:

Short term turbulence - think of China as a well-built aircraft flying through a storm, one in the many she has flown through in the centuries and still survived as one nation.

[Balance]

Shorters increasing ahead of CEO Jayne's next sell-off. A last fling before the Shanghai strategy days 17/19 Sept??

See it here. (https://www.shortman.com.au/stock?q=a2m)

Holders will hold, sellers will sell, buyers will buy. Short term turbulence ahead....

DYOR and take responsibility for your own decisions.

The shorters are certainly behaving true to form - shorting more as the sp heads lower as they did in the past. Been wrong in the past for them so why should this time be any different?

[dzhang1510]

Any idea why markets are not opening at 10am anymore or is it just not being updated?

[BlackPeter]

Any idea why markets are not opening at 10am anymore or is it just not being updated?

Welcome to the forum.

Re your question however i am afraid you need to be a bit more specific. Which markets are you referring to?

Nothing wrong with the NZX today, as far as I can see ...

[dzhang1510]

Just the NZX, like google isn't updating for me... weird or just use nzx website to check?

[BlackPeter]

Just the NZX, like google isn't updating for me... weird or just use nzx website to check?

As i said - nothing wrong today with the NZX. I guess you can't hold them accountable for what some free websites do who may or may not report accurately. Nothing particular about google - if its free, you can't really complain if they screw up - can you?

But anyway - why would you use google for the purpose of monitoring the NZX activities? If you are in the game, then better use your trading platform.

[Balance]

As i said - nothing wrong today with the NZX. I guess you can't hold them accountable for what some free websites do who may or may not report accurately. Nothing particular about google - if its free, you can't really complain if they screw up - can you?

But anyway - why would you use google for the purpose of monitoring the NZX activities? If you are in the game, then better use your trading platform.

Could be a student, or a novice trying to get a handle on the pathetic market we call NZX? :t_down:

[dzhang1510]

Could be a student, or a novice trying to get a handle on the pathetic market we call NZX? :t_down:


Am both of those :p
What are cheaper trading platforms? Or best place to check if I can't afford those?

[Balance]

Am both of those :p
What are cheaper trading platforms? Or best place to check if I can't afford those?

Try ASB Securities. Opening an account is free.

[RTM]

Am both of those :p
What are cheaper trading platforms? Or best place to check if I can't afford those?

Yahoo finance is not to bad if you just looking for info and want to set up and track portfolios. Just remember to put tickers in as per this format
AIR.NZ, SYD.AX You can't trade there tho. At least, not easily.
I use Direct Broking for buy / sell. I wouldn't call what I do trading.
Its ~$30 up to $15,000
https://www.directbroking.co.nz/DirectTrade/static/ourrates.aspx#Fm1

[mshierlaw]

Yahoo finance is not to bad if you just looking for info and want to set up and track portfolios. Just remember to put tickers in as per this format
AIR.NZ, SYD.AX You can't trade there tho. At least, not easily.
I use Direct Broking for buy / sell. I wouldn't call what I do trading.
Its ~$30 up to $15,000
https://www.directbroking.co.nz/DirectTrade/static/ourrates.aspx#Fm1

My recent buys have incurred additional fees over 10k with DB. However I do debit my bank account not a trading account. Am I missing an opportunity here?

[longy]

My recent buys have incurred additional fees over 10k with DB. However I do debit my bank account not a trading account. Am I missing an opportunity here?

It costs you less when you have sufficient funds in your trading account. I have never really done a comparison between the two ASB and DB. But I think ASB charges slightly higher fees. They do discount for their value customers though.

[iceman]

My recent buys have incurred additional fees over 10k with DB. However I do debit my bank account not a trading account. Am I missing an opportunity here?

Here is their fee structure https://www.directbroking.co.nz/DirectTrade/static/ourrates.aspx#Fm1

[mshierlaw]

Many thanks for the detail. Every penny helps.

[see weed]

Hope I don't put a jinx on sp. Two days in a row green and hopefully third today. Is this the start of new uptrend;).

[cymonger]

Hope I don't put a jinx on sp. Two days in a row green and hopefully third today. Is this the start of new uptrend;).

I almost did the "thing" today where you sell in the morning when the NZ market shoots up, and then buy back in when it plummets when the Aussie market opens. Wouldn't have gotten away with it today, as the pattern didn't hold. A good reminder to stop timing the market (although it was fun and profitable a couple of times) and just accept this works just fine as a long term play on the way to the mid twenties in the next couple of years.

[Balance]

https://www.shortman.com.au/stock?q=a2m

Shorters doing their usual?

Sold low, and now buying high?

[dompf]

ASX 50 rebalance happens after asx closing today - A2M might be notified they are joining the club for the end of September. Will be checking news after ASX closes.

[sb9]

ASX 50 rebalance happens after asx closing today - A2M might be notified they are joining the club for the end of September. Will be checking news after ASX closes.

In one of recent articles (Aus media) Jayne was quoted saying something like "we're ASX 50 company". So may be we're in this time by the looks.

[sb9]

In one of recent articles (Aus media) Jayne was quoted saying something like "we're ASX 50 company". So may be we're in this time by the looks.

This is actually what she said from that article...

"A2 Milk chief executive Jayne Hrdlicka has warned analysts to be more cautious about their forecasts as the booming company “changes gears” to focus on investing for the future and putting in place the infrastructure required of an ASX top 50 company."

[sb9]

ASX 50 rebalance happens after asx closing today - A2M might be notified they are joining the club for the end of September. Will be checking news after ASX closes.

Looks as though no changes to ASX 50, so A2M not included, may be next quarter.

[dompf]

Looks as though no changes to ASX 50, so A2M not included, may be next quarter.

That's a real shame; thanks for the above I just read this as well but they cant be far from it; look forward to hearing what news comes out of the meeting mid/end September in China.

[tipsy]

Do people hold their shares on the nzx or asx?

Thought I would try and make a little spending money by trading some a2m, what I didn't realise was that the asb fx spread was like 3c so a lot of my profit was sucked up by this and brokerage. Noob :(

[RGR367]

Do people hold their shares on the nzx or asx?

Thought I would try and make a little spending money by trading some a2m, what I didn't realise was that the asb fx spread was like 3c so a lot of my profit was sucked up by this and brokerage. Noob :(

Does it matter when you're a trader?

[tipsy]

Does it matter when you're a trader?

Well this is the first time I've really traded, normally just buy n hold, hence never really noticing the wide fx spread before. I would've been much better off making the same trade on the nzx.

[Leftfield]

Interesting week next week with possible CEO share sale, and SML results due.

TA looking healthy with a couple of gaps to be filled......

10750

[sb9]

Interesting week next week with possible CEO share sale, and SML results due.

TA looking healthy with a couple of gaps to be filled......

10750

Not to mention the investor day a week later on Sept 17/18. I'm guessing with investor day looming close, CEO and other senior staff share sale may have to wait until the event is done due to access to any potential material information.

[couta1]

Well done Baa_Baa for your insightful post over on Hotcopper on friday saying that the TA pattern at close indicated a reflection on the SP this week, right on the money.

[Baa_Baa]

Well done Baa_Baa for your insightful post over on Hotcopper on friday saying that the TA pattern at close indicated a reflection on the SP this week, right on the money.

Cheers mate, technical with some analysis generally provides better insights than a price chart with no analysis or projections. Today a hero and tomorrow a villain, ATM is very volatile. It suits actual analysis but sadly it’s still about as reliable a chicken entrails or tea leaves.

While I talk the TA, the reality is that Ive bought a modest stash and have no intention of selling, ever … err, or until my chart says GTFO.

😉

[bull....]

heading for a test of critical $14?

[Balance]

heading for a test of critical $14?

But for fall of NZD against AUD, already below $14.00.

Real rest to ATM is whether it holds the $13 on ASX.

If it doesn’t, then $12.28 looks like it’s where sp is going? TA posters?

[Baa_Baa]

But for fall of NZD against AUD, already below $14.00.

Real rest to ATM is whether it holds the $13 on ASX.

If it doesn’t, then $12.28 looks like it’s where sp is going? TA posters?

A2M chart https://www.tradingview.com/x/VLsgPMc5/

[couta1]

Anyone buying around these levels should be jumping with joy that weak hands have given them the opportunity to do so.

[longy]

Anyone buying around these levels should be jumping with joy that weak hands have given them the opportunity to do so.

Yep. I did a top up today.

[bull....]

a2 up on bellamys takeover by the chinese

[carrom74]

a2 up on bellamys takeover by the chinese

https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20190916/pdf/448jsjcnwp9ntm.pdf

Here it is...

[dompf]

What an opening morning salvo up over a dollar on BAL news - going to be a wild day once asx opens.

[carrom74]

I am not able to understand the spike... if BAL is taken over by the Chinese then their pending SAMR would be given sooner right? which would not be good news for ATM.. can anyone please explain?

[RTM]

a2 up on bellamys takeover by the chinese

How long before they own Fonterra ?

[couta1]

What an opening morning salvo up over a dollar on BAL news - going to be a wild day once asx opens. I'm excited this morning with my XXOS BAL holding along with my XXXXOS A2 holding.

[allfromacell]

I am not able to understand the spike... if BAL is taken over by the Chinese then their pending SAMR would be given sooner right? which would not be good news for ATM.. can anyone please explain?

It shows there is an appetite for buying out IF companies in this part of the world. Plus the price, they’re bidding for BAL at a high earnings multiple when the companies’ growing at snail pace compared to ATM.

[bull....]

I'm excited this morning with my XXOS BAL holding along with my XXXXOS A2 holding.

lifesaver for couta

[couta1]

lifesaver for couta Sure is I was seriously in the red with BAL but my gut told me something good was coming and to hang on.

[theflat2]

If the sale goes through it will mean there is a whole pile of cashed up investors with an appetite to invest in IF companies on the ASX...

[bull....]

I am not able to understand the spike... if BAL is taken over by the Chinese then their pending SAMR would be given sooner right? which would not be good news for ATM.. can anyone please explain?

i view it negative in long run for a2 as chinese owed infant formula company fits with china stated goal of owing there supply chain thru offshore purchases of foreign owed companies. expect in time bellamys will now become big supplier into china thru meng

[silu]

Sure is I was seriously in the red with BAL but my gut told me something good was coming and to hang on.

Will you even say yes to the takover offer?

[Leftfield]

Sure is I was seriously in the red with BAL but my gut told me something good was coming and to hang on.

The old Gutometer is working fine eh!!??

Exciting day for all holders..

[winner69]

Chinese paying 30 times ebitda for the dog BAL

ATM at 30 times ebitda is about $17

[pg0220]

Wow! Congrats to couta! I got out of BAL before, which I don't regret since I have the money in another good company, but this is a good news for BAL in a surprising way to me.

I am not sure how this will help BAL receive SAMR faster than other companies in AUS and NZ when all the procedures will have to go through as part of process. If BAL receives SAMR when BUB and WHA are still waiting for it, it clearly indicates the SAMR approval process is unfair and biased.

A2 milk product is still differentiated from BAL's organic milk... I started buying A2 milk for my little one but not sure if I want to replace it with organic milk when I specifically want A2 beta-casein protein...

[couta1]

Will you even say yes to the takover offer? Definitely will.

[bull....]

Wow! Congrats to couta! I got out of BAL before, which I don't regret since I have the money in another good company, but this is a good news for BAL in a surprising way to me.

I am not sure how this will help BAL receive SAMR faster than other companies in AUS and NZ when all the procedures will have to go through as part of process. If BAL receives SAMR when BUB and WHA are still waiting for it, it clearly indicates the SAMR approval process is unfair and biased.

A2 milk product is still differentiated from BAL's organic milk... I started buying A2 milk for my little one but not sure if I want to replace it with organic milk when I specifically want A2 beta-casein protein...

will they even need the same licenses if they become chinese owned?

[pg0220]

will they even need the same licenses if they become chinese owned?
I think the SAMR approval is also required for Chinese companies as well. I previously followed HC posts on BAL and there were some SAMR approval posts for seemingly Chinese companies although I couldn't read Chinese.

Can anyone correct me if I am wrong?

[bull....]

I think the SAMR approval is also required for Chinese companies as well. I previously followed HC posts on BAL and there were some SAMR approval posts for seemingly Chinese companies although I couldn't read Chinese.

Can anyone correct me if I am wrong?

even if they do need them still , i imagine it will be very easliy obtained being it is chineses owned company fulfilling the parties goal

[dobby41]

If BAL receives SAMR when BUB and WHA are still waiting for it, it clearly indicates the SAMR approval process is unfair and biased.

And then what? They'd still have the SAMR approval and other can cry all they want.

[Beagle]

Sure is I was seriously in the red with BAL but my gut told me something good was coming and to hang on.

Congrats mate. Couldn't happen to a nicer guy :)

[carrom74]

i view it negative in long run for a2 as chinese owed infant formula company fits with china stated goal of owing there supply chain thru offshore purchases of foreign owed companies. expect in time bellamys will now become big supplier into china thru meng

Thanks Bull..we will see what ASX thinks in 20 minutes...

[silu]

Definitely will.

Congrats then Couta1!

[Ggcc]

Just a thought for those shorters with BAL...... Awwwww. Well done Couta

[dreamcatcher]

Sure is I was seriously in the red with BAL but my gut told me something good was coming and to hang on.
I also was in the same eye watering loss situation with BAL and don't play the shorts game so congrats to you for holding.

[Sideshow Bob]

Chinese paying 30 times ebitda for the dog BAL

ATM at 30 times ebitda is about $17

Which would equate to about $12.5 Billion.....

[pg0220]

Which would equate to about $12.5 Billion.....
Even more with special dividends they are declaring to be factored in...

[Leftfield]

Chinese paying 30 times ebitda for the dog BAL

ATM at 30 times ebitda is about $17



Even more with special dividends they are declaring to be factored in...


Which would equate to about $12.5 Billion.....

Even more with ATM's cash reserves, SML share holding etc?

Comparing BAL to ATM is pretty futile, however, today's BAL offer represents a 59% premium to BAL's recent SP around $8.30 and if you apply the same 59% premium to (say) ATM's fri close = 14.03 +59% = $22.45

Nice to dream!!

[RupertBear]

Sure is I was seriously in the red with BAL but my gut told me something good was coming and to hang on.

I remember your advice to a young Bear, always listen to your gut RupertBear. Good advice and well done that man! :t_up:

[Lewylewylewy]

I used to date a Chinese girl whos mum had a business of using her family connections to get trade quotas, which enabled companies to trade abroad, which were otherwise practically unobtainable... but im 100% sure the SAMR license stuff that has been holding BAL back this whole time is all above board, and the recent Chinese purchaser will have no such connections to leverage on their overpriced multimillion dollar punt!

ATM will be fine!

[Sideshow Bob]

I used to date a Chinese girl whos mum had a business of using her family connections to get trade quotas, which enabled companies to trade abroad, which were otherwise practically unobtainable... but im 100% sure the SAMR license stuff that has been holding BAL back this whole time is all above board, and the recent Chinese purchaser will have no such connections to leverage on their overpriced multimillion dollar punt!

ATM will be fine!

As mentioned in the Synlait thread:


From my experience, any such registrations/listings etc are usually at the complete whim of the Chinese authorities, and often in relation to if/when they need the product. For instance, beef/lamb markets are on fire into China at the moment - and this week 25 Brazilian plants have been added to the list approved to export to China with immediate effect.

You'd think a company 39% owned by a Chinese State-Owned Enterprise would be able to get something through faster - seems not to make any difference. Same goes for a meat company 50% owned by the same parent company.

[winner69]

This will certainly WOW intending Chinese investors

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/ATM/341020/307739.pdf

[RTM]

This will certainly WOW intending Chinese investors

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/ATM/341020/307739.pdf

And good to see Fonterra feature as a strategic partner.
Maybe there is hope !

[Sideshow Bob]

This will certainly WOW intending Chinese investors

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/ATM/341020/307739.pdf

If they can read English..... :p

[silu]

This will certainly WOW intending Chinese investors

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/ATM/341020/307739.pdf

They are really hammering home the "US Key Messages". At first glance very impressive. ATM is stepping up for the future and I for once am excited that this is potentially a world beating company in the making. Could easily become business wise the biggest thing ever to come out of NZ. At current prices one has to have a lot of faith in current management to deliver.

[bull....]

“Our sales growth ambitions for Bellamy’s in Australia, and the broader Asia Pacific region, will see investment in the local dairy industry to ensure the required capacity is in place to achieve these plans,” Mengniu CEO Lu Minfang said in a statement to the Australian Stock Exchange (ASX).

See they were fighting over bellamys infant formula in the shops yesterday after the takeover news ...... below news report

https://www.news.com.au/finance/business/retail/shoppers-filmed-brawling-over-baby-formula-following-chinese-dairy-company-takeover-bid/news-story/1194daf94914e1e4756eda56217a9dc7



heres my punt on the mengnui statement. that meng will buy fonterra australian assets to increase there dairy processing.

[bull....]

Thanks Bull..we will see what ASX thinks in 20 minutes...

fading the atm spike proved the best strategy for the day.

[zgnz]

This will certainly WOW intending Chinese investors

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/ATM/341020/307739.pdf

New US milk packaging seems to more clearly highlight the a2 brand logo. Has a more premium/quality feel to the design, and will stand out nicely. Think it’ll do well.

[allfromacell]

“Our sales growth ambitions for Bellamy’s in Australia, and the broader Asia Pacific region, will see investment in the local dairy industry to ensure the required capacity is in place to achieve these plans,” Mengniu CEO Lu Minfang said in a statement to the Australian Stock Exchange (ASX).

See they were fighting over bellamys infant formula in the shops yesterday after the takeover news ...... below news report

https://www.news.com.au/finance/business/retail/shoppers-filmed-brawling-over-baby-formula-following-chinese-dairy-company-takeover-bid/news-story/1194daf94914e1e4756eda56217a9dc7



heres my punt on the mengnui statement. that meng will buy fonterra australian assets to increase there dairy processing.


Rush to buy the formula before it's tainted by Chinese ownership?

[bull....]

Rush to buy the formula before it's tainted by Chinese ownership?

or tainted by carcingins

The South China Morning Post reported that Mengnui's (https://www.afr.com/companies/retail/bellamy-s-says-china-owner-won-t-speed-up-regulatory-tick-20190916-p52ro4)major SOE shareholder, COFCO, had become a more active investor in Mengnui, including in quality control after a carcinogenic substance was found in its dairy products last month, despite an earlier pledge not to meddle in its operations.

https://www.afr.com/politics/china-bid-for-bellamy-s-faces-canberra-hurdle-20190916-p52rqw

[carrom74]

I wonder who are those "daring" traders at the NZX(both yesterday and today) who were willing to try their luck before the ASX(or the shorts) open??

Cant they just wait until 12?

[dompf]

I wonder who are those "daring" traders at the NZX(both yesterday and today) who were willing to try their luck before the ASX(or the shorts) open??

Cant they just wait until 12?

Maybe they think for once it will go their way. :>

[pg0220]

"China is putting up these barriers to trade which hurts the Australian company and then it offers to buy out Bellamy's."

Commenting on "conspiracy theories" that China had strategically depressed Bellamy's share price before launching the takeover bid, the Lowy Institute's China expert Richard McGregor said observers should be careful not to over-interpret events.



Hmmm.... It sounds like this is going to be an interesting one....

[RTM]

I have similar conspiracy theory but on a grander scale, both NZ and Oz. That they pushed up the price of dairy products to encourage farmers, companies to expand. That they then choked the prices and caused companies / farmers to come close to going broke. And so end up buying the developed assets, farms, processing, at bargain prices. They are playing the long game, in Oz and here.

[bull....]

yep spot on the ballamys news is negative for a2 , not even a presentation has excited the punters.

[couta1]

yep spot on the ballamys news is negative for a2 , not even a presentation has excited the punters. Lol ,BAL trading at $12.90ish and A2 at $13.38, spot the undervalued one. PS-I'll give you a hint it ain't the organic one.

[bull....]

Lol ,BAL trading at $12.90ish and A2 at $13.38, spot the undervalued one. PS-I'll give you a hint it ain't the organic one.

are you using your bal windfull to bet the farm on the undervalued one lol ?

[couta1]

are you using your bal windfull to bet the farm on the undervalued one lol ? Your onto it.

[bull....]

Your onto it.

couta your a whale lol

[davflaws]

Internal testes - but balls of steel nevertheless!

[RupertBear]

Internal testes - but balls of steel nevertheless!

I’d say he’s got golden BALs now! :D

[carrom74]

Looks like A2M and BAL prices are going to criss-cross soon at the ASX...Shorters on a rampage...

[t.rexjr]

I have similar conspiracy theory but on a grander scale, both NZ and Oz. That they pushed up the price of dairy products to encourage farmers, companies to expand. That they then choked the prices and caused companies / farmers to come close to going broke. And so end up buying the developed assets, farms, processing, at bargain prices. They are playing the long game, in Oz and here.

The same theory can be applied to the mining sector too. Lithium in particular...

[couta1]

Looks like A2M and BAL prices are going to criss-cross soon at the ASX...Shorters on a rampage... Shorters on an intensely painful rampage with BAL whilst the A2 shorters are feeling smug but will feel the burn in the not too distant future.

[carrom74]

Shorters on an intensely painful rampage with BAL whilst the A2 shorters are feeling smug but will feel the burn in the not too distant future.

Pretty bad end today...50cents drop(ASX).I hope the smug ends soon for the shorts!

[Baa_Baa]

Pretty bad end today...50cents drop(ASX).I hope the smug ends soon for the shorts!

TA is very shaky as well, vulnerable to any further SP weakness, albeit massive support technically just a smidge below here.

One should expect the motivated sellers (shorts) to go hard on A2M and see if they can break down the high 12’s support hoping to create a capitulation event.

On the flip side, committed buyers, accumulators and others looking to capitalise on SP weakness will be counting their dry powder looking for a Best Buy price.

[dompf]

TA is very shaky as well, vulnerable to any further SP weakness, albeit massive support technically just a smidge below here.

One should expect the motivated sellers (shorts) to go hard on A2M and see if they can break down the high 12’s support hoping to create a capitulation event.

On the flip side, committed buyers, accumulators and others looking to capitalise on SP weakness will be counting their dry powder looking for a Best Buy price.

good stock but so much volatility; it doesn’t matter too much if you just hold, I’m tempted to take it off my watch lists but it’s my largest holding. I agree with above going to be a backward and forwards type affair until more solid news at least short term:

[bull....]

Greens call for scrutiny of possible 'manipulation' in $1.5bn China milk bidGreens Senator Peter Whish-Wilson has urged the government to examine if the Chinese government suppressed the shareprice of infant formula company Bellamy's, ahead of a Chinese corporation's $1.5 billion takeover bid.

https://www.theage.com.au/business/companies/greens-call-for-scrutiny-of-possible-manipulation-in-1-5bn-china-milk-bid-20190917-p52s72.html

[bull....]

Meanwhile, analysts from a Hong Kong firm believe the proposed takeover by Mengniu would "speed up" the Australian infant formula company's much-needed regulatory approval.


The Huatai Financial Holdings analysts painted the deal as a good fit for Mengniu, adding that Bellamy's was superior to another business that Mengniu had sold.
"Bellamy's has better growth potential than Junlebao as Mengniu will help the brand to accelerate infant milk formula registration and channel expansion in China," they wrote.

https://www.theage.com.au/business/companies/greens-call-for-scrutiny-of-possible-manipulation-in-1-5bn-china-milk-bid-20190917-p52s72.html

[carrom74]

Meanwhile, analysts from a Hong Kong firm believe the proposed takeover by Mengniu would "speed up" the Australian infant formula company's much-needed regulatory approval.


The Huatai Financial Holdings analysts painted the deal as a good fit for Mengniu, adding that Bellamy's was superior to another business that Mengniu had sold.
"Bellamy's has better growth potential than Junlebao as Mengniu will help the brand to accelerate infant milk formula registration and channel expansion in China," they wrote.

https://www.theage.com.au/business/companies/greens-call-for-scrutiny-of-possible-manipulation-in-1-5bn-china-milk-bid-20190917-p52s72.html

Looks like this deal is no cake-walk given that the greens are involved.. I can draw a parallel with an open cast coal mine investment by a group named Adani from India in Queensland and this dragged for at least four years with protests organized and litigations etc.(Of course Coal is totally different from Milk) and even became an election issue.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/jun/14/campaigners-criticise-reckless-approval-adani-mine-australia

[couta1]

Looks like this deal is no cake-walk given that the greens are involved.. I can draw a parallel with an open cast coal mine investment by a group named Adani from India in Queensland and this dragged for at least four years with protests organized and litigations etc.(Of course Coal is totally different from Milk) and even became an election issue.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/jun/14/campaigners-criticise-reckless-approval-adani-mine-australia Not a done deal by any means and there will be no better offer than the huge premium one tabled and that's why all my BAL money is now parked in A2.

[carrom74]

Not a done deal by any means and there will be no better offer than the huge premium one tabled and that's why all my BAL money is now parked in A2.

Well done Couta!... very wise decision.

[pg0220]

Not a done deal by any means and there will be no better offer than the huge premium one tabled and that's why all my BAL money is now parked in A2.
Congrats to you to have got out of dog BAL with profit!

[Beagle]

Looked up Confucius sayings yesterday. Thought there must be something in there along the lines of "Man who dodges bullet very unwise to put himself directly in the firing line again" Didn't see it so best we call this a "Beagle" saying then :)
Some good other wise stuff in there nonetheless http://www.quoteambition.com/famous-confucius-quotes/

[BlackPeter]

Looked up Confucius sayings yesterday. Thought there must be something in there along the lines of "Man who dodges bullet very unwise to put himself directly in the firing line again" Didn't see it so best we call this a "Beagle" saying then :)
Some good other wise stuff in there nonetheless http://www.quoteambition.com/famous-confucius-quotes/

They would not have had bullets and fire weapons during Confucius life time ... he clearly could not predict that event ;);

[longy]

Looked up Confucius sayings yesterday. Thought there must be something in there along the lines of "Man who dodges bullet very unwise to put himself directly in the firing line again" Didn't see it so best we call this a "Beagle" saying then :)
Some good other wise stuff in there nonetheless http://www.quoteambition.com/famous-confucius-quotes/

Nice one Beagle. Thanks for sharing.

[couta1]

Looked up Confucius sayings yesterday. Thought there must be something in there along the lines of "Man who dodges bullet very unwise to put himself directly in the firing line again" Didn't see it so best we call this a "Beagle" saying then :)
Some good other wise stuff in there nonetheless http://www.quoteambition.com/famous-confucius-quotes/ Go big or go home mate, cash no good in bank and there's only one way the SP is going over the medium to long term for this stock and you can guess which way that is.

[bull....]

hammer time coming? bigly when the support goes i reckon.

[couta1]

hammer time coming? bigly when the support goes i reckon. An absolute bargin whilst UBS and other game players play their games, the big instos hold the real power though owning 75% of the company and they ain't selling.

[bull....]

An absolute bargin whilst UBS and other game players play their games, the big instos hold the real power though owning 75% of the company and they ain't selling.

just around 10m shares shorted last week and yes UBS is a known short side player

[Beagle]

They would not have had bullets and fire weapons during Confucius life time ... he clearly could not predict that event ;);

Took me a couple of minutes to work that out yesterday...suppose you call that a senior moment lol
Nonetheless putting the vast majority of one's eggs in just one basket when there are literally tens of thousands to choose from around the globe is quite an "interesting" investment approach. There's got to be a Confucius saying in there covering that surely ?...must have another look...

[couta1]

Took me a couple of minutes to work that out yesterday...suppose you call that a senior moment lol
Nonetheless putting the vast majority of one's eggs in just one basket when there are literally tens of thousands to choose from around the globe is quite an "interesting" investment approach. There's got to be a Confucius saying in there covering that surely ?...must have another look... Why waste your time testing tens of thousands of potential basket cases when you can happily put most of your eggs in one strong basket(68 % in my case) PS-I do have another 31% in HLG for diversification purposes, oh and 1% in PAZ.

[Beagle]

Ecclesiastes 11:2 Invest in seven ventures, yes, in eight; you do not know what disaster may come upon the land. Enough said but plenty more wisdom here for anyone interested https://www.biblemoneymatters.com/bible-verses-about-investing/

[Baa_Baa]

hammer time coming? bigly when the support goes i reckon.

Should be seeing serious buyer support around here, no sure thing that support breaks down.

[couta1]

Should be seeing serious buyer support around here, no sure thing that support breaks down. So many weak hands being shaken out here. PS-You could buy BAL cheaper than A2 a minute ago,now that's a joke based on potential.

[bull....]

So many weak hands being shaken out here. PS-You could buy BAL cheaper than A2 a minute ago,now that's a joke based on potential.

mengnu be much bigger competition for a2 once they take over bal

[couta1]

mengnu be much bigger competition for a2 once they take over bal You mean IF they take over BAL besides plenty of room for competition in this sector not forgetting that BAL does not do A2 based products.

[winner69]

How close to the Synlait Pokeno factory to the one Megniu has an interest in?

[freddagg]

Why waste your time testing tens of thousands of potential basket cases when you can happily put most of your eggs in one strong basket(68 % in my case) PS-I do have another 31% in HLG for diversification purposes, oh and 1% in PAZ.

Your 1% has just gone up 8%

[bull....]

Should be seeing serious buyer support around here, no sure thing that support breaks down.

no support today , looks like today is the breakdown barring some magic from the fed tomorrow to rally a2. not surprised really the other day was a perfect short opp megnui big competition along with nestle now and soon westland milk will be doing a2 into china i reckon so competition is inevitable when market is so juicy.

[Baa_Baa]

no support today , looks like today is the breakdown ...

Yup, technically it has. Falling knife slicing off a few fingers today, not mine yet but seriously tempted. Watching dem charts like a hawk.

[nizzy]

How close to the Synlait Pokeno factory to the one Megniu has an interest in?
Yashili is next door at Pokeno.
Interesting the nexus between Mengnui & Danone. Mengnui is China's largest dairy company, owned by COFCO and Danone (9.9%). Yashili is owned 51% by Mengnui and 25% by Danone. Danone also has its plant inland from Balclutha & canning at Airport Oaks.

[tuaman]

https://www.sharecafe.com.au/2019/09/18/a2m-citi-rates-the-stock-as-neutral-2/

[bull....]

Yashili is next door at Pokeno.
Interesting the nexus between Mengnui & Danone. Mengnui is China's largest dairy company, owned by COFCO and Danone (9.9%). Yashili is owned 51% by Mengnui and 25% by Danone. Danone also has its plant inland from Balclutha & canning at Airport Oaks.

i reckon mengnui will buy fonterra assets in aus too if fonterra is a forced seller due to capital structure and debt levels.

[Beagle]

Long time till the next drinks break (AKA good news event). Singles day in November, then half year result in February 2020.
In the meantime I suppose shareholders can look forward to Ms Herdlicka selling down her stake.

[percy]

Looks to me as though a great number have already beaten her to the panic button.

[couta1]

no support today , looks like today is the breakdown barring some magic from the fed tomorrow to rally a2. not surprised really the other day was a perfect short opp megnui big competition along with nestle now and soon westland milk will be doing a2 into china i reckon so competition is inevitable when market is so juicy. Everyone put on your sackcloth and run for the hills were all going to be permanently skunked and destined for the poor house forever. PS-You wouldn't be shorting the stock by any chance bull !

[Beagle]

Sticking with my view expressed in post #13,658.
Not concerned with where analysts value it. I won't pay a cent more than $11.50. The game has changed and the massive spend on marketing is now required for much slower sales growth.
Massive amounts of future growth already priced into this one.

[kiora]

False alarm or the completed rebuild?
https://www.goodreturns.co.nz/article/976515573/a-guide-to-contrarian-investing.html?utm_source=GR&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=GoodReturns+Market+Report+for+18+Sep+ 2019

[see weed]

UBS don't seem to be too bothered about their a2 holding down $154,000,000 in the last 7 weeks. A2 down 3.2Bil. Where does the FMA come into it? Or is it only when it happens over one day, that they would make an inquiry? Or do they know a2 history and turn a blind eye?:)

[peat]

Yashili is next door at Pokeno.
Interesting the nexus between Mengnui & Danone. Mengnui is China's largest dairy company, owned by COFCO and Danone (9.9%). Yashili is owned 51% by Mengnui and 25% by Danone. Danone also has its plant inland from Balclutha & canning at Airport Oaks.

wrt the dispute , isn't that ownership structure a little ominous?

edit - for SML of course, but indirectly quite possibly ATM as well.

[carrom74]

Jayne's take on the Bellamy takeover deal..

https://www.afr.com/companies/agriculture/a2-says-bellamy-s-bid-highlights-china-potential-20190917-p52saw

[BlackPeter]

Wow - somebody either really wants out or tries hard to flush out any remaining stop losses below yesterdays broken AU$13 support line ...

10773

More than 300,000 shares for $11.34 on offer - this is quite a statement. Anybody needs some "cheap" A2M shares? Plenty on offer ... might turn into an interesting day ...

[couta1]

Wow - somebody either really wants out or tries hard to flush out any remaining stop losses below yesterdays broken AU$13 support line ...

10773

More than 300,000 shares for $11.34 on offer - this is quite a statement. Anybody needs some "cheap" A2M shares? Plenty on offer ... might turn into an interesting day ... Come on your been around long enough to know that pre match price data is just scrambled nonsense.PS-Its Equity derivatives expiration day so that could explain it.

[BlackPeter]

Come on your been around long enough to know that pre match price data is just scrambled nonsense.PS-Its Equity derivatives expiration day so that could explain it.

Well, I guess somebody with lots of ATM shares wants to set a signal. Whether they really want to sell (and at what price) is obviously open.

Re equities derivation day on a Thursday - which holiday do they try to avoid this time? These Ossies are clearly too much into celebrating ...

[couta1]

Well, I guess somebody with lots of ATM shares wants to set a signal. Whether they really want to sell (and at what price) is obviously open.

Re equities derivation day on a Thursday - which holiday do they try to avoid this time? These Ossies are clearly too much into celebrating ... Equity derivative expiration day coinciding with the current short attack means it could be an interesting open.

[bull....]

hammer time , confirms the break down i guess

[couta1]

hammer time , confirms the break down i guess Lol you like your hammers, quite relaxed with all this oscillation noise.

[bull....]

heres some more on why megnui deal is big news

China is the largest baby formula market in the world. All international players are facing an even more competitive market (https://www.afr.com/companies/agriculture/china-to-wean-middle-classes-off-foreign-infant-formula-20190604-p51uas) with the government seeking to reinvest in the category. It is encouraging local companies to buy foreign dairy producers, and has set a target to be majority self-sufficient within three years.

https://www.afr.com/companies/retail/bellamy-s-confident-on-growth-drivers-despite-no-news-from-beijing-20190823-p52k5y

megnui as i said is the first step in the t/o of bellamys on there way to being self sufficient

[bull....]

UBS don't seem to be too bothered about their a2 holding down $154,000,000 in the last 7 weeks. A2 down 3.2Bil. Where does the FMA come into it? Or is it only when it happens over one day, that they would make an inquiry? Or do they know a2 history and turn a blind eye?:)

think UBS hold stock but then lend it to shorters

[bull....]

if / when ? the price gets to $3 im sure the chinese will launch a takeover to crys of they drove the price down

[sb9]

if / when ? the price gets to $3 im sure the chinese will launch a takeover to crys of they drove the price down

Err, sure you meant $13, right...

[couta1]

Err, sure you meant $13, right... Haha you never know with bull, as if anyone on here has any influence on the SP whatsoever other than to try and scare weak hands into selling.

[Lewylewylewy]

I think it'll be fine next year. Only a bother to traders and people looking to exit (which is currently me, unfortunately). Otherwise, enjoy the cheaper entry prices if you want in.

Im looking forward to the next ATM news event.

[pg0220]

megnui as i said is the first step in the t/o of bellamys on there way to being self sufficient
haha it is quite funny when their definition of "self sufficient" is by using everything overseas...

[carrom74]

Trading on a very narrow range... does it imply short covering?

[bull....]

haha it is quite funny when their definition of "self sufficient" is by using everything overseas...

self sufficient equally applies to there involvement here in the dairy industry , eventually fonterra will become less relevant in exports to china

[couta1]

Trading on a very narrow range... does it imply short covering? I'm calling the bottom in bar any Macro events.

[Beagle]

I'm calling the bottom in bar any Macro events.

Bet the Ranch...oh wait, you already have :p I'm expecting a military strike on Iran any day now and who knows where it will go from there but one thing I am pretty sure of, it will affect oil prices more than infant milk powder so you might be alright.

[Balance]

Brave call, Couta and I hope it’s right.

Wish I had sold all my shares when I sold 2/3rd after the disappointing results.

Given my entry price, I am comfortable to ride with the 1/3rd left but I have to say I am not in a hurry to reset my holding higher anytime soon.

I suspect it’s short coverings as some shorters lock in gains, giving some support currently.

[hogie]

Thinking of selling some of my FPH to invest in more ATM

[Baa_Baa]

Thinking of selling some of my FPH to invest in more ATM

New money, recycled money, whatever money, it’s a screaming buy. But, it’s still a falling knife so timing is everything. Gltah

[Beagle]

The chart is looking pretty ominous. Reversion back to test long term support at about ~ $11 is not out of the question in my opinion.

[BlackPeter]

The chart is looking pretty ominous. Reversion back to test long term support at about ~ $11 is not out of the question in my opinion.

Managed to stay on top of the MA400 for a number of years - might hold this time as well.

MA400 is sitting at A$11.89 ...

[see weed]

I'm calling the bottom in bar any Macro events.
There are lots of different bottoms with a2, and every time I buy some ,it drops 10 or 20c. So now will put orders in 20c below what I would like to pay for them. So bottoms up, but please give me bottoms down:confused:.

[pg0220]

There are lots of different bottoms with a2, and every time I buy some ,it drops 10 or 20c. So now will put orders in 20c below what I would like to pay for them. So bottoms up, but please give me bottoms down:confused:.
So meaning we need to be prepared for sp to go down by 40c?

[RGR367]

So meaning we need to be prepared for sp to go down by 40c?

Maybe by a dollar or more. Bought some in 2 August for 1752, 12 August for 1590, 21 August 1495 and the other day for 1380 :t_down: I will chase it down farther as my overall cost is still below 4 bucks :t_up: having bought and sold heaps then when acquiring it was way below that sweet amount of 56 cents. So worry not lucky early holders :p

[BlackPeter]

Oh dear - another of Jayne's Jetstar pals transferring into ATM management.

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/341408

While I don't know anything about Race do I start to wonder how Jetstar could perform so poorly under this team which is now "top cream" for ATM?

[davflaws]

Do you believe that the current CEO's performance has been bad?

[Leftfield]

Oh dear - another of Jayne's Jetstar pals transferring into ATM management.
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/341408

Market seems to like it....
FWIW I like the way it has been handled with the current CFO staying on as added security. The Unilever experience and acquisitions experience could be v good in this role and more than compensates for any Jetstar negatives.

[couta1]

Market seems to like it....
FWIW I like the way it has been handled with the current CFO staying on as added security. The Unilever experience and acquisitions experience could be v good in this role and more than compensates for any Jetstar negatives. Market was already up before that news come out.

[couta1]

Do you believe that the current CEO's performance has been bad? Too early to measure at this point, give it another year.

[Beagle]

Too early to measure at this point, give it another year.

Looks like a good CFO hire to me and probably attributable to Ms Hrdlicka's previous business relationship while at JetStar.

[couta1]

Looks like a good CFO hire to me and probably attributable to Ms Hrdlicka's previous business relationship while at JetStar. Lol Beagle that hiring is not a measure of her performance.

[Beagle]

Lol Beagle that hiring is not a measure of her performance.

Well...yes and no...it is probably a measure of the worth of her business contacts network and the regard she is held in, by them.
Poaching the CFO of well performing Qantas looks like a pretty good hire to me. They've been pretty good at counting beans over there...
Some very good experience http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/00b2ea79/qantas-cfo-race-strauss-to-join-a2-milk-as-cfo.html?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Qantas%20CFO%20Race%20Strauss%20to%20 join%20A2%20Milk%20as%20CFO&utm_content=Qantas%20CFO%20Race%20Strauss%20to%20j oin%20A2%20Milk%20as%20CFO+CID_ff4b39f28334e921de6 40c892ba4b833&utm_source=Email%20marketing%20software&utm_term=httpwwwsharechatconzarticle00b2ea79qantas-cfo-race-strauss-to-join-a2-milk-as-cfohtml
Need to count lots of beans before you learn to spot the bad and doubtful ones...no substitute for experience.

[BlackPeter]

Do you believe that the current CEO's performance has been bad?

Unfortunately it takes five years (give or take a year) to really assess the performance of a CEO - and until then they typically move on.

I don't think that she did a great job at Jetstar ... and she had already a handful of slips at ATM. Sure - she is a smooth talker, but is this enough to bring this company to the next level ? I doubt it.

Somewhat concerned as well about the huge blowout of senior positions under her reign. You need a small team of top performers to run a high performance company, not lots of average people ...

If Jetstar really had this unique combination of top people in their leadership ranks, than I find it hard to understand why they are such an underperformer.

[Beagle]

Unfortunately it takes five years (give or take a year) to really assess the performance of a CEO - and until then they typically move on.

I don't think that she did a great job at Jetstar ... and she had already a handful of slips at ATM. Sure - she is a smooth talker, but is this enough to bring this company to the next level ? I doubt it.

Somewhat concerned as well about the huge blowout of senior positions under her reign. You need a small team of top performers to run a high performance company, not lots of average people ...

If Jetstar really had this unique combination of top people in their leadership ranks, than I find it hard to understand why they are such an underperformer.

Agree 100%. Gargantuan increase in spending on marketing too going forward. Very very different approach to Geoffrey Babbage. Jayne says all the low hanging easy fruit has already been picked or words to that effect. A cynic might suggest you can usually mark out underperformers when they pre-prepare their excuses for lower future growth.

[Baa_Baa]

Agree 100%. Gargantuan increase in spending on marketing too going forward. Very very different approach to Geoffrey Babbage. Jayne says all the low hanging easy fruit has already been picked or words to that effect. A cynic might suggest you can usually mark out underperformers when they pre-prepare their excuses for lower future growth.

Huge growth in revenue and market share still on the cards and sustainable, flat NPAT growth while investing in marketing and company capability ... have to invest in the future when the easy pickings are tailing off and the hard yards ahead of growing a circa $10 billion company into a $100 billion.

Geoffrey did a good job for sure, but it's time to let the new management team get on with preparing for the future, which looks very bright indeed. Lucky you have a share of the action in your KFL fundy, so you won't miss out on the good times ahead.

Good to see Pokeno come online today as well, get that China certification and with the exclusive ATM supply agreement, all good, though I see you're still down on that as well.

There are other real train wrecks to ogle at and be cynical about, ATM isn't one of them imho ;)

[Beagle]

Time will tell with ATM...my sense is its had such a massive run over the years a really large amount of the future growth is already priced in but that was a good CFO hire today and a good CFO can make a huge difference...
Long term investors should do okay in the long term.

[Leftfield]

Another analyst bullish on ATM's potential, forecasting av SP gain of 33% pa for next 5 yrs to $A33.66 in 2024.

read it here (https://walletinvestor.com/asx-stock-forecast/a2m-stock-prediction)

As always DYOR.

[silu]

Another analyst bullish on ATM's potential, forecasting av SP gain of 33% pa for next 5 yrs to $A33.66 in 2024.

read it here (https://walletinvestor.com/asx-stock-forecast/a2m-stock-prediction)

As always DYOR.

This looks like a algorithm generated report to me. But nonetheless I still believe in a rosy future for ATM.

[peat]

Another analyst bullish on ATM's potential, forecasting av SP gain of 33% pa for next 5 yrs to $A33.66 in 2024.

read it here (https://walletinvestor.com/asx-stock-forecast/a2m-stock-prediction)

As always DYOR.

simply amazing how they know the price it will be in every month for the next four years or more.

[Ggcc]

No one is congratulating the shorters. They have done a tremendous job at keeping the price from increasing. Well done shorters

[Balance]

No one is congratulating the shorters. They have done a tremendous job at keeping the price from increasing. Well done shorters

Yes, last update shows them building up now to 52m shares shorted.

Looks ominous on the charts that they are trying to break the sp below support point of $12.20?

After that, we could be in free fall territory towards $10.00?

[Beagle]

simply amazing how they know the price it will be in every month for the next four years or more.

Some "interesting" conceptual computer modelling for sure. How much real analysis and thought is behind it is anyone's guess.
For me the lack of foreseeable future growth through the daigou, (or however its spelt) channel and commentary from the company that future growth will depend upon direct market penetration marks a step change in the business model. What it means to me is that future growth will be vastly more expensive to achieve than simply picking the low hanging fruit.

This gargantuan ramp up in marketing and fortification of management infrastructure to support future growth plans are costs that simply will not dissipate going forward and really suck the wind out of the growth sails of this company. Future eps growth in the low - mid teens at vast cost is massively different from the low hanging fruit picking and vastly higher rates of growth achievable in the past and at least in my mind this absolutely MUST must be associated with a step change in the forward multiples attributable to this company. Forward multiples slightly north of 30 made sense before when the sales and eps growth rate was much higher but not anymore.
For this to be an attractive opportunity again, at least in my book it needs to be in the mid $11 range and the forward PE just under 25.
If it doesn't get there I am quite relaxed about it and I am happy to simply maintain a modest exposure through Kingfish.

I made this same call on RYM 5 years ago that the multiples were simply too high for the growth rate. RYM has materially underperformed that sector since then so I am more than happy to back my own valuation thesis.

TA looks ugly too and in my opinion those with an XXXXXL position are leaving themselves very exposed.

[Ggcc]

Yes, last update shows them building up now to 52m shares shorted.

Looks ominous on the charts that they are trying to break the sp below support point of $12.20?

After that, we could be in free fall territory towards $10.00?
As long as ATM keeps performing well, the price will bounce and it will be back to $18. Just not in the short term.

[couta1]

Yes, last update shows them building up now to 52m shares shorted.

Looks ominous on the charts that they are trying to break the sp below support point of $12.20?

After that, we could be in free fall territory towards $10.00? Hasnt gone below my bottom call from last week yet, today's sell off courtesy of a Citi downgrade to $12.20 AU. PS-Thats a strong buy signal as they are notorious game players.

[bull....]

made a retest of the break down at around 14 just under , pulling back now which is usually bearish in my opinion as support has now become resistance. only means one thing hammer time

[Bobdn]

Apologies if this is old news, this just popped up on the SMH's markets live as I was trying to find out why my South 32 shares are doing so badly:

A2 Milk is a sell, says analysts at Citi.
“We consider consensus EBITDA margin expansion in FY21 and FY22 as too optimistic given the increased investment required to pursue growth in China and the US,” Citi equity analyst Sam Teeger said in a note released late Monday.
Having switched its rating from neutral to sell, Citi has also downgraded its price target for the company from $15.15 to $12.20.
“Our target price now implies an 18 per cent lower FY20e PE multiple of 26x as we have cut our EBITDA margins," Mr Teeger said. "The daigou channel is no longer reliable to drive growth and competition is increasing."
Shares in A2M are down 2 per cent to $12.375 on Tuesday.

https://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/markets-live-asx-set-to-soften-rba-in-focus-20190924-p52u9m.html

[ratkin]

Hasnt gone below my bottom call from last week yet, today's sell off courtesy of a Citi downgrade to $12.20 AU. PS-Thats a strong buy signal as they are notorious game players.

If that is a strong buy signal I would hate to see what a strong sell signal looked like

[Beagle]

Citi's view - Heck that's about the same as I see it, but something I clearly articulated about a month ago. $A12.20 price target 12 months from now, (assuming people expect a minimum 12% return for risk capital in the market), is almost bang on where I see fair value at present of $N.Z.11.50 now. PE multiple they use is almost identical to where I see it and I also agree that EBITDA margin expansion in FY21, FY22 and beyond is too optimistic. I would expect Jayne will continue with her extremely heavy handed approach to marketing spend and staff recruitment. This isn't even a hold as far as I am concerned at the current price and technically the chart is looking very ominous. I don't think some people have got it that once the low hanging fruit has been picked the game has fundamentally changed.

Kingfish adding to their holding in this and Vista when the game has clearly changed for both is disappointing and I am not surprised they have started to underperform the market, (actually quite sharply in August and a repeat appears to be on the cards for Sept). My faith in their stock picking ability is being sorely tested.

[couta1]

Take absolutely no notice whatsoever of Sam Teeger or Citi, they have played this old trick before with A2, issue a downgrade then mop up as many cheap shares as they want for their clients and to lend to shorters and then a few weeks or so later they issue an upgrade. PS-See you at $20.

[Beagle]

Posted on 21 August 2019 when the share price was $14.81. The cautionary note was intended for my friends to consider carefully.

Was quite busy doing real work today so here is my belated detailed analysis and thoughts.

For my money Balance has a good point. Herdlicka is spending money on staff and marketing with little or no restraint and it will obviously materially affect the EBITDA margin. Only time will tell if this is a better way to grow the company than Geoffrey Babbage's more conservative approach. The considerable inventory build suggests they could have sold more if the demand was there but it wasn't. In fact demand was short of production capability by quite a bit and that's a first to the best of my recollection. Maybe that's why marketing is being seriously ramped up ?

The other thing to keep in mind is sales and profit growth, (despite all the extra staff and marketing spend in FY19) has slowed quite considerably compared to last year. Net profit after tax grew 116% last year so ~ 47% growth for FY19 is clearly not nearly as impressive.
Likewise sales growth last year was 68%, just 41% for FY19 and that with heaps more marketing and headcount.

When we look at the 1H FY 19 v 2H FY19 split we see 1H sales of $613m generating $152.7m net profit and 2H sales of $691m generating just $135m net profit and its the margins in 2H shareholders get to "enjoy" going forward.
Its looks to me like Herdlicka is throwing a heck of a lot of money at the operation and growth is slowing quite materially whereas Geoffrey Babbage's approach was far more successful. Don't suppose he can be coaxed out of retirement ? Could be a rough few days ahead as analysts seriously revise their numbers.

Cash on hand amounts to 63.2 cps.

https://www.marketscreener.com/A2-MI...22/financials/
Prior to this announcement average analyst view is for sales of $1,660m next year and 32% EBITDA margin.
Retuning this to the 28.2% EBITDA margin the company is now forecasting and everything else in the above average broker forecast for FY20 staying constant this gives revised NPAT of $326m for FY20, only 13% net profit growth next year on 27% sales growth and all this on vastly higher marketing and human resources costs.

$326m gives 44.4 cps earnings and at a closing price of $14.81 that puts ATM on a forward PE of 33.4. That looks a bit pricey to me for the expected growth rate, (has traded at lower rates in the past with much higher previous eps growth rates) and caution appears to be warranted.
Finally, no analysis is complete without a look at TA. Very clear break down through the 100 day MA today and the bounce this afternoon was fairly muted in comparison to the initial drop and did not recover above the 100 day MA.

Hmmmmm. Some real caution appears to be warranted here. All the numbers I am looking at tell me very clearly that profit growth is slowing down at quite a worrisome rate !

Disc Not holding and not intending to directly hold. Hold Kingfish and they hold heaps of ATM.

Took Citi over a month to work out what it took me to do in a couple of hours when time allowed. I think they've finally seen the situation for what it really is.
I doubt some will read or even briefly try and think about another perspective...

[Ggcc]

Take abousolutely no notice whatsoever of Sam Teeger or Citi, they have played this old trick before with A2, issue a downgrade then mop up as many cheap shares as they want for their clients and to lend to shorters and then a few weeks or so later they issue an upgrade. PS-See you at $20.
I agree but I am thinking $20 will take a while. Maybe over a year

[couta1]

I agree but I am thinking $20 will take a while. Maybe over a year Yep bit over a year I reckon ,will hit $18 sometime next year at least IMO.

[Baa_Baa]

Take abousolutely no notice whatsoever of Sam Teeger or Citi, they have played this old trick before with A2, issue a downgrade then mop up as many cheap shares as they want for their clients and to lend to shorters and then a few weeks or so later they issue an upgrade. PS-See you at $20.

Perhaps those who are not familiar with the ASX and the incredible market manipulation by very large deep pocketed insto's and brokers will find it difficult to comprehend the games and whipsawing share prices, or the motivations, let alone the methods. The so called 'analysts' reports are just front running their companies buy or sell strategy at the time, always remember they want your money. It's an eye opener for sure.

Best thing a minnow can do with a stock like A2M imho is wait patiently for a low price reversal, get in and just don't sell or react to the games. Accumulate on low price reversals which will come, look at the volatility! Traders might work both sides and sell high price reversals.

In any event, listening to brokers, insto analysts and 'discussion groups' is a mugs game, it inevitably messes with your mind and you do things you wouldn't otherwise do if you had just ignored the whole lot of them and worked your own book.

A2M and ATM are in or entering the sweet spot buy zone, it's massively derisked (capital basis) and has a bright future. Now's the time people might want to consider progressively easing in, certainly not the time to freak out and sell!

But I'm just a 'discussion group' guy, so don't listen to me ... LOL. :eek2:

[couta1]

Perhaps those who are not familiar with the ASX and the incredible market manipulation by very large deep pocketed insto's and brokers will find it difficult to comprehend the games and whipsawing share prices, or the motivations, let alone the methods. The so called 'analysts' reports are just front running their companies buy or sell strategy at the time, always remember they want your money. It's an eye opener for sure.

Best thing a minnow can do with a stock like A2M imho is wait patiently for a low price reversal, get in and just don't sell or react to the games. Accumulate on low price reversals which will come, look at the volatility! Traders might work both sides and sell high price reversals.

In any event, listening to brokers, insto analysts and 'discussion groups' is a mugs game, it inevitably messes with your mind and you do things you wouldn't otherwise do if you had just ignored the whole lot of them and worked your own book.

A2M and ATM are in or entering the sweet spot buy zone, it's massively derisked (capital basis) and has a bright future. Now's the time people might want to consider progressively easing in, certainly not the time to freak out and sell!

But I'm just a 'discussion group' guy, so don't listen to me ... LOL. :eek2: Good post and reminder to what's going on behind the scenes to cause the hard to understand movements of this stock. As you say work your own book or in my words follow your Gutometer and ignore all the barking coming from different directions instead be downright dogmatic in your conviction and vision for this great company and you will be rewarded for a long while yet.