ATM - A2 Milk Corporation Limited

[BlackPeter]

That perspective sounds like a barrier to entry in countries that trust their existing suppliers, ie America

Not a barrier, but yes, supplying melamine free (and what else creative Chinese factories might want to add) IF might be in some other markets not such a strong distinguishing criteria :):

Still - it is A2 and it takes probably a decade or so for other markets and competitors to build up their own A2 herds in sufficient numbers.

But yes - at some stage I'd expect all cows will be A2 and the advantage will be gone.

[Sideshow Bob]

Latest News from the CEO .

Big Read: A2 Milk - formula for growth - NZ Herald

(https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12280993)
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12280993

Was in the ODT this morning - but seems only in the Old Skool paper edition and not landed on their website. Guess because of the NZ Herald paywall....

[couta1]

The Beagle is barking again, must be time to buy a few more of these currently seriously undervalued beauties. PS-$17-$18 by this time next year.

[couta1]

Not a barrier, but yes, supplying melamine free (and what else creative Chinese factories might want to add) IF might be in some other markets not such a strong distinguishing criteria :):

Still - it is A2 and it takes probably a decade or so for other markets and competitors to build up their own A2 herds in sufficient numbers.

But yes - at some stage I'd expect all cows will be A2 and the advantage will be gone. Yes well just imagine the size of the market once A2 is the dominant milk on the planet, huge growth potential ahead.

[Lewylewylewy]

I suppose the advantage (or disadvantage) of IF over milk market, is that people haven't built brand loyalty as long because (most) people aren't having babies all throughout their lives.

Beagle, I agree, but I think after having built a good brand with a large customer base, although the low fruit has been picked, there are other orchards to take a wander through. In the future, i see a2 chocolate, cream, yogurt, flavored milk, creamer, etc. All big markets. Obviously lots of work, but it's not like this company hasn't proven its ability to build and distribute an fmcg product.

[Leftfield]

But yes - at some stage I'd expect all cows will be A2 and the advantage will be gone.

Not so. You ignore the branding effect.

Any factory can make a cola.....but there is only one Coca Cola. If you begin to think of A2 as the Coca Cola of milk then you may just begin to understand the branding power of A2.

[Ggcc]

Not so. You ignore the branding effect.

Any factory can make a cola.....but there is only one Coca Cola. If you begin to think of A2 as the Coca Cola of milk then you may just begin to understand the branding power of A2.
I agree. I used to work for a cigarette factory and made two cigarettes with the same ingredients and filters. They just had two different inks on them. One was sold for $2 per packet more back in 90s. iPhone or Samsung, they both do similar things, one just holds higher status in the eyes of some....... Marketing done at its best.

[Beagle]

The Beagle is barking again, must be time to buy a few more of these currently seriously undervalued beauties. PS-$17-$18 by this time next year.

When you're in a deep hole the smartest thing to do is stop digging :p

[Beagle]

Not so. You ignore the branding effect.

Any factory can make a cola.....but there is only one Coca Cola. If you begin to think of A2 as the Coca Cola of milk then you may just begin to understand the branding power of A2.


I think they do extremely well with Pepsi and Pepsi Max is my carbonated drink of choice :)

[couta1]

When you're in a deep hole the smartest thing to do is stop digging :p When I dig my hole I remove 1 shovelful of dirt and add 2 to replace the 1 i removed. Lol

[dobby41]

I won't win any friends for saying this but :-
I used to think the intellectual property that ATM often bragged about was worth a lot and was a defensible moat.
Nestle debunked a lot of myth about that a while back and I believe over time A2 Milk will just become another commodity.
I agree ATM has first mover advantage but that only lasts so long and then...
I could never work out how you, and others, came to that conclusion - they never had a monopoly on a2 protein, just the name.
At some point it was always going to become a commodity and the margin for being 'special' would be lost.

[Sideshow Bob]

I could never work out how you, and others, came to that conclusion - they never had a monopoly on a2 protein, just the name.
At some point it was always going to become a commodity and the margin for being 'special' would be lost.

And one of the reasons hence that they are ramping up their marketing spend.

That isn't itself a bad thing. But the problem is it is an investment, needs to be done really well - as all too often marketing spend is just frivolous and money wasted. (Been in a company that did that...…but they thought they were great)

[BlackPeter]

Not so. You ignore the branding effect.

Any factory can make a cola.....but there is only one Coca Cola. If you begin to think of A2 as the Coca Cola of milk then you may just begin to understand the branding power of A2.

They say Coca cola has a secret recipe - which would give them an IP advantage. I don't know and I am not a fan of any drink of the coke variety, but it does taste somewhat different to others.

However with A2 milk, it is just milk - and would not be different to any other A2 milk ...

But hey ... if buyers think that A2 will hold an eternal brand advantage over all competitors, then I can live with that. Currently holding a small parcel and happy to sell them to the most enthusiastic buyer ... as soon as the price is right ;);

Discl: Drinking our own (on our block produced) A2 milk since decades ... and I am talking here about real untreated milk - fresh from the cow and thick creme sitting on top. I can confirm it tastes so much better than anything we could ever buy in any supermarket ... and I don't need ATM to get it ...

[Beagle]

I could never work out how you, and others, came to that conclusion - they never had a monopoly on a2 protein, just the name.
At some point it was always going to become a commodity and the margin for being 'special' would be lost.

Company presentations used to make a quite a meal of their IP, trdemark and patent protection. Pages 12-15 of this presentation an example of that http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/ATM/293065/248602.pdf

[Beagle]

When I dig my hole I remove 1 shovelful of dirt and add 2 to replace the 1 i removed. Lol

LOL if your shovel gets blunt I'll buy the rest of your PAZ off you at 23 cents :p

[tomm]

They say Coca cola has a secret recipe - which would give them an IP advantage. I don't know and I am not a fan of any drink of the coke variety, but it does taste somewhat different to others.

However with A2 milk, it is just milk - and would not be different to any other A2 milk ...

But hey ... if buyers think that A2 will hold an eternal brand advantage over all competitors, then I can live with that. Currently holding a small parcel and happy to sell them to the most enthusiastic buyer ... as soon as the price is right ;);

Discl: Drinking our own (on our block produced) A2 milk since decades ... and I am talking here about real untreated milk - fresh from the cow and thick creme sitting on top. I can confirm it tastes so much better than anything we could ever buy in any supermarket ... and I don't need ATM to get it ...
Great to see that , although there are just a few like you can do so. The rest need to go to supermarket and choose their milk :).
Beside , my cousin with an Autism Kid, after all the counseling and books and research, he finally decided to let his kid drink A2 Milk and he noticed the kid can easy pooing and thanks to that the kid is more focus and listening and since starting with A2 Milk in just 10 months, the kid is doing without trouble at school. I do noticed that as well, it seems rocket science for what I am trying to say here because there are no proof or the big boys Pharmacy didn't want to go further. I don't care , but that is how I am observing the kid. Since I have trust to this A2MIlk.
There are challenge but there are faiths and the name A2 MILK ( ATM) is the beginning of the story.!

[sb9]

Jacinda Ardern announces upgrade on free trade agreement with China

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12281876

[Southern_Belle]

Jacinda Ardern announces upgrade on free trade agreement with China

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12281876I particularly like this part ...... ' In dairy, existing conditions had been maintained, with all safeguard tariffs to be eliminated within just over two years for most products, and four years for milk powder.Ardern: "This means that by January 2024, New Zealand will have the best access to China for dairy products of any country."

[carrom74]

Jacinda Ardern announces upgrade on free trade agreement with China

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12281876

Today, the sp actually dropped after the news... Seriously?? the market expects every chinese mum to buy A2???

[silu]

fwiw I don't drink milk but last month I decided being a shareholder wasn't enough, I also had to test the product. So for 2 weeks I used A2 milk in my morning smoothie. So far so good and yeah it was milk but I was happy using water. Then I switched to standard milk and it gave me discomfort straight away. I spare you the details.
Also the daughter of a colleague suffered from bad acid Reflux during her pregnancy and her eating A2 ice cream actually did wonders (not sure if this was an excuse to eat ice cream though).

Either way that's why I'm holding on to my holding. More and more people are talking about the benefits they experience with A2 milk. And that's only in NZ where we had fresh milk and other products for a while now. My hope is that China is still growing (albeit slowly) but I keep a very keen eye on the North American market too.

[couta1]

My wife and I only drink A2(About 8 litres a week) which includes the stuff that mixes with the alcohol, we dont have any problem with drinking A1 that we know of but A2 tastes so much better plus to support the company where most of our money sits.

[Leftfield]

My wife and I only drink A2(About 8 litres a week) which includes the stuff that mixes with the alcohol, we dont have any problem with drinking A1 that we know of but A2 tastes so much better plus to support the company where most of our money sits.

I also like the way those Bolly bands are tightening!

[pg0220]

Whenever my family goes out on weekends, my wife and I have coffee together. At the same time, she always used to suffer from sore belly and had to know where the nearest bathroom she could go wherever we went. We initially thought she just had weak intestines. One day, I suddenly came to think that it might have been due to the normal milk she drank from her flat white. I started testing by letting her stop drinking a normal milk but started letting her drink my son's A2 milk. Also for her flat white, we started swapping that with one with soy milk. Guess what, now she never complains about sore belly and doesn't go to bathroom as often as before. I actually wish all the cafes would provide an option to make coffee made with A2 milk instead of only vegan milk. It will help a lot of people like my wife enjoy a nice cup of coffee without worrying about having to go to bathroom so often.

[silu]

Whenever my family goes out on weekends, my wife and I have coffee together. At the same time, she always used to suffer from sore belly and had to know where the nearest bathroom she could go wherever we went. We initially thought she just had weak intestines. One day, I suddenly came to think that it might have been due to the normal milk she drank from her flat white. I started testing by letting her stop drinking a normal milk but started letting her drink my son's A2 milk. Also for her flat white, we started swapping that with one with soy milk. Guess what, now she never complains about sore belly and doesn't go to bathroom as often as before. I actually wish all the cafes would provide an option to make coffee made with A2 milk instead of only vegan milk. It will help a lot of people like my wife enjoy a nice cup of coffee without worrying about having to go to bathroom so often.

Mention this to every Cafe you're visiting. If lots of them get the same feedback then they may offer A2 milk as regularly as in Australia.

[Balance]

Today, the sp actually dropped after the news... Seriously?? the market expects every chinese mum to buy A2???

NZ infant formula already goes into China with zero tariff. There is no additional benefit for ATM with the upgraded FTA with China - which kicks in 4 years from now anyway.

The biggest issue with ATM at present hopefully will be addressed at the ASM on 19 Nov - update on revenues and margins.

[dobby41]

Whenever my family goes out on weekends, my wife and I have coffee together. At the same time, she always used to suffer from sore belly and had to know where the nearest bathroom she could go wherever we went. We initially thought she just had weak intestines. One day, I suddenly came to think that it might have been due to the normal milk she drank from her flat white. I started testing by letting her stop drinking a normal milk but started letting her drink my son's A2 milk. Also for her flat white, we started swapping that with one with soy milk. Guess what, now she never complains about sore belly and doesn't go to bathroom as often as before. I actually wish all the cafes would provide an option to make coffee made with A2 milk instead of only vegan milk. It will help a lot of people like my wife enjoy a nice cup of coffee without worrying about having to go to bathroom so often.

We seem to be going through another cycle of 'A2 milk is really good for me'.
A2 milk is good for some people and they are willing to pay a premium for it (not ATM milk specifically but milk of solely a2 protein).
I drink the cheapest milk and always will - I don't have a problem with a1 protein.If a2 protein milk becomes more popular and prevalent it will reduce in price and profitability - after all, once you have a herd, it doesn't cost more to produce the raw product.
Fresh milk isn't where ATM will make the money.

[Balance]

We seem to be going through another cycle of 'A2 milk is really good for me'.
A2 milk is good for some people and they are willing to pay a premium for it (not ATM milk specifically but milk of solely a2 protein).
I drink the cheapest milk and always will - I don't have a problem with a1 protein.If a2 protein milk becomes more popular and prevalent it will reduce in price and profitability - after all, once you have a herd, it doesn't cost more to produce the raw product.
Fresh milk isn't where ATM will make the money.

Yup - agreed.

Been mentioned numerous times before that the Chinese are buying A2 milk (infant formula) because of its proven benefits (albeit anecdotal) to those who are lactose intolerant.

But still nice to know that posters here are all waking up to the benefits - spread the word. I have been and have been receiving positive affirmations of the benefits of drinking A2 milk.

[mfd]

We seem to be going through another cycle of 'A2 milk is really good for me'.
A2 milk is good for some people and they are willing to pay a premium for it (not ATM milk specifically but milk of solely a2 protein).
I drink the cheapest milk and always will - I don't have a problem with a1 protein.If a2 protein milk becomes more popular and prevalent it will reduce in price and profitability - after all, once you have a herd, it doesn't cost more to produce the raw product.
Fresh milk isn't where ATM will make the money.

Fresh milk is where the company started their success and the 10% fresh milk market share they enjoy in Australia provided the basis for everything that followed. My own hope is the huge money they are making from Chinese IF sales will be used to develop the American market - if they can recreate the Australian success over there I will be very happy. Not just fresh milk of course, there's cheese, yoghurt, butter, ice cream, fresh cream - a whole world of products to expand into to prevent the company being too reliant on one product in one market.

[Balance]

Fresh milk is where the company started their success and the 10% fresh milk market share they enjoy in Australia provided the basis for everything that followed. My own hope is the huge money they are making from Chinese IF sales will be used to develop the American market - if they can recreate the Australian success over there I will be very happy. Not just fresh milk of course, there's cheese, yoghurt, butter, ice cream, fresh cream - a whole world of products to expand into to prevent the company being too reliant on one product in one market.

And there we differ - their entry into the American market is one reason why I cut back my shareholding in ATM - the US market is a graveyard for NZ companies. What makes ATM think they can foot it in the US when almost NZ companies which went there suffered horrendously?

[dobby41]

Fresh milk is where the company started their success and the 10% fresh milk market share they enjoy in Australia provided the basis for everything that followed. My own hope is the huge money they are making from Chinese IF sales will be used to develop the American market - if they can recreate the Australian success over there I will be very happy. Not just fresh milk of course, there's cheese, yoghurt, butter, ice cream, fresh cream - a whole world of products to expand into to prevent the company being too reliant on one product in one market.

That was back when it was 'special' - it is much less 'special' now and will head towards commodity.

[tomm]

That was back when it was 'special' - it is much less 'special' now and will head towards commodity.

With such a success of A2MILK , there will always businesses trying to copy it. But to me , if I need to choose between a Chinese A2 or Nestle A2 or whomever , I will choose the one and only A2 MILK (I am Asian but I know you can't never be sure the Chinese will come back and say: sorry we made a mistake in our A2's processing, there are extra sh.i.t in there , we are deeply appology). A2MILK , ATM.NZ all the way :)
The Chinese will always a copier even from ( KFC, MC Donalds , NIKE....) They try to convince the world , they can make it cheaper.. so use their products.... Once they got controls things will be different!
Bridges are collapsed due to missing some concrete and REAL STEEL posts...
We can't go back and sue them , because the entire system are corrupted with human right unlike the NZ and AUS.
There we go again, why we and chinese and others choosing A2MILK ATM.NZ.

[mfd]

That was back when it was 'special' - it is much less 'special' now and will head towards commodity.

They are still growing market share in Australia - 10% growth in the last year, now up to 11% market share, despite competitors trying to get on board. I am not aware of any A2 cows milk competition in America but feel free to prove me wrong. The stories above are part of my confidence - A2 gives an option to a significant group who think they can't handle dairy products.

The alternative option of leaving all their eggs in the China IF basket would make me nervous.

[tomm]

I think today and for the next 2 days are the last days of shaking and collecting .
These 3 days it can even go as deep as $12.63 to collect.

[bull....]

might be pushing lower time after our consolidation at the recent lows

[couta1]

might be pushing lower time after our consolidation at the recent lows No just the final bit of game playing by the players to mop up a few more cheap shares before the spring rebounds leading upto the AGM.

[Beagle]

This can't be right, share price down another 20 cents just before the famous singles day, (and this one headed by Taylor Swift which surely is good for another $1 on the share price ?), and annual meeting.
Must be time for another investor presentation...

[couta1]

This can't be right, share price down another 20 cents just before the famous singles day, (and this one headed by Taylor Swift which surely is good for another $1 on the share price ?), and annual meeting.
Must be time for another investor presentation... You need to do a bit more study on the habits and workings of shorters Beagle. PS-Perfect day for the likes of Citi&UBS to launch an attack(Melbourne Cup)

[Beagle]

Shorters are very bad dogs. How do I short this one :lol:

[winner69]

Shorters are very bad dogs. How do I short this one :lol:

I don’t think you have the temperament to do short trading .....emotion not a good attribute I’m told

[Balance]

I don’t think you have the temperament to do short trading .....emotion not a good attribute I’m told

Famous line from The Godfather - ‘Emotions cloud judgement.’

[Beagle]

I don’t think you have the temperament to do short trading .....emotion not a good attribute I’m told

Couldn't agree more and couldn't live with the stress and constant risk of a margin call, who needs that crap in their lives ? I think Coutts knows I was just yanking his chain. Heading down towards my fair value of $11.50 anyway...so it might be time to go long sometime in the foreseeable future, assuming the narrative doesn't deteriorate more or Jayne doesn't build substantially more robustness into the management hierarchy. From where I sit it would appear she spends like a whole ship load of drunken sailors on long overdue shore leave. Some of that spending must find a worthwhile target eh ?

[Bobdn]

My wife and I only drink A2(About 8 litres a week) which includes the stuff that mixes with the alcohol, we dont have any problem with drinking A1 that we know of but A2 tastes so much better plus to support the company where most of our money sits.

I tried that with the Warehouse over the last couple of years. Buying all my household cleaning products, using Warehouse mobile, and getting my tramping gear from Torpedo 7. Just this afternoon I bought Giant Roman Candles from the Warehouse. If you give it enough time, and buy enough product from the company you're invested in, I've found the share price does turn around eventually.

[whatsup]

With such a success of A2MILK , there will always businesses trying to copy it. But to me , if I need to choose between a Chinese A2 or Nestle A2 or whomever , I will choose the one and only A2 MILK (I am Asian but I know you can't never be sure the Chinese will come back and say: sorry we made a mistake in our A2's processing, there are extra sh.i.t in there , we are deeply appology). A2MILK , ATM.NZ all the way :)
The Chinese will always a copier even from ( KFC, MC Donalds , NIKE....) They try to convince the world , they can make it cheaper.. so use their products.... Once they got controls things will be different!
Bridges are collapsed due to missing some concrete and REAL STEEL posts...
We can't go back and sue them , because the entire system are corrupted with human right unlike the NZ and AUS.
There we go again, why we and chinese and others choosing A2MILK ATM.NZ.

Tomm, A truer word was never said, IMHO the Chinese copiers are truly a corrupt breed as is their top table !

[Beagle]

With such a success of A2MILK , there will always businesses trying to copy it. But to me , if I need to choose between a Chinese A2 or Nestle A2 or whomever , I will choose the one and only A2 MILK (I am Asian but I know you can't never be sure the Chinese will come back and say: sorry we made a mistake in our A2's processing, there are extra sh.i.t in there , we are deeply appology). A2MILK , ATM.NZ all the way :)
The Chinese will always a copier even from ( KFC, MC Donalds , NIKE....) They try to convince the world , they can make it cheaper.. so use their products.... Once they got controls things will be different!
Bridges are collapsed due to missing some concrete and REAL STEEL posts...
We can't go back and sue them , because the entire system are corrupted with human right unlike the NZ and AUS.
There we go again, why we and chinese and others choosing A2MILK ATM.NZ.

Thank you for sharing your perspective. Why don't you trust Nestle ? a Swiss company that has a history all the way back to 1866.
https://www.nestle.com/aboutus/history/nestle-company-history
I have no issue whatsoever buying Nestle products and consider their reputation at least as good as any other food company and probably much better than most.
Lets face it, it Nestle were bad they still wouldn't exist today and would have been sued in to bankruptcy many decades ago.
ATM a relative newcomer by comparison.

[BlackPeter]

Oops - old news - wrong year :( ... withdraw and apologize ...

[tomm]

Thank you for sharing your perspective. Why don't you trust Nestle ? a Swiss company that has a history all the way back to 1866.
https://www.nestle.com/aboutus/history/nestle-company-history
I have no issue whatsoever buying Nestle products and consider their reputation at least as good as any other food company and probably much better than most.
Lets face it, it Nestle were bad they still wouldn't exist today and would have been sued in to bankruptcy many decades ago.
ATM a relative newcomer by comparison.
Hi Beagle, I respect Nestle and I use to drink their Milo every morning. Sometimes when some company is too big to fail is a different perspective, people will still drink normal milk they use to drink and use cheese, cakes... despite Nestle's products or Fonterra...
As a business owner I believe A2 cows are relatively old but has been Ignored because the doctor want you to be sick ,the goverment want you to work, the police want to see crimes... It didn't mean I trust or distrust any brands , it's just I believe the root to bring it up is A2 Milk ATM.NZ and they got the herds and more advantage to continuing the products, this product will be bombarded from any corners, they will try to bring it down to close A2.
THEY DO NOT INTEND TO OPEN THE MARKET FOR A2 DESPITE ALL THE FACTS ABOUT THE DIFFERENTS BETWEEN A1A2 OR A1 AND A2. IT COST THE BIG BOY TOO MUCH TO REPLACE THE WHOLE DAIRY THEY PUT INTO PLACES.
I love and support the products despite they say it is just a myth about the different. It does indeed help my Autism cousin :) .

[tomm]

Dairy prices jump 3.7 per cent at Global Dairy Trade auctionhttps://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12282687

[tomm]

Strong and Steady.

[causecelebre]

Thank you for sharing your perspective. Why don't you trust Nestle ? a Swiss company that has a history all the way back to 1866.
https://www.nestle.com/aboutus/history/nestle-company-history
I have no issue whatsoever buying Nestle products and consider their reputation at least as good as any other food company and probably much better than most.
Lets face it, it Nestle were bad they still wouldn't exist today and would have been sued in to bankruptcy many decades ago.
ATM a relative newcomer by comparison.

Except when they are not. Nestle has a long history of overly aggressive marketing of breast milk substitutes, particularly in under developed countries, and have been subject to multiple, co-ordinated boycotts. The question we, as investors, need to ask is what is our ethical threshold when it comes to placing our dosh?

Disc: I do hold ATM

[Ggcc]

Anyone want to take out those 75,000 shares on offer for $12.95? They are quite an eyesore and I dont have the available cash lol

[couta1]

Anyone want to take out those 75,000 shares on offer for $12.95? They are quite an eyesore and I dont have the available cash lol They will disappear once we get a match price, NZX is currently shut.

[see weed]

They will disappear once we get a match price, NZX is currently shut.
Maybe the NZX has decided to join the ASX and not open until 12 every day:).

[Ggcc]

They will disappear once we get a match price, NZX is currently shut.
Cheers it helps if I read the information at the top of direct broking

[couta1]

Maybe the NZX has decided to join the ASX and not open until 12 every day:). They shouldn't open at all, let's just have all our shares transferred to the ASX and close the old dairy up.

[Balance]

Has anyone read or posted that yet another multi-national food company has just started selling its own branded A2 milk products in China?

May account for recent price weakness.

[see weed]

They shouldn't open at all, let's just have all our shares transferred to the ASX and close the old dairy up.
Good idea, as long as they do it when our dollar is 99c or higher.

[Beagle]

Hi Beagle, I respect Nestle and I use to drink their Milo every morning. Sometimes when some company is too big to fail is a different perspective, people will still drink normal milk they use to drink and use cheese, cakes... despite Nestle's products or Fonterra...
As a business owner I believe A2 cows are relatively old but has been Ignored because the doctor want you to be sick ,the goverment want you to work, the police want to see crimes... It didn't mean I trust or distrust any brands , it's just I believe the root to bring it up is A2 Milk ATM.NZ and they got the herds and more advantage to continuing the products, this product will be bombarded from any corners, they will try to bring it down to close A2.
THEY DO NOT INTEND TO OPEN THE MARKET FOR A2 DESPITE ALL THE FACTS ABOUT THE DIFFERENTS BETWEEN A1A2 OR A1 AND A2. IT COST THE BIG BOY TOO MUCH TO REPLACE THE WHOLE DAIRY THEY PUT INTO PLACES.
I love and support the products despite they say it is just a myth about the different. It does indeed help my Autism cousin :) .

Makes "purrfect" sense.

[Ggcc]

Has anyone read or posted that yet another multi-national food company has just started selling its own branded A2 milk products in China?

May account for recent price weakness.
Lucky ATM has first mover advantage.

[couta1]

Has anyone read or posted that yet another multi-national food company has just started selling its own branded A2 milk products in China?

May account for recent price weakness. Just another junk Chinese brand which the punters wont trust or buy but Citi the game players have milked it for what it's worth causing price weakness as they short the crap out of the stock.

[sb9]

Has anyone read or posted that yet another multi-national food company has just started selling its own branded A2 milk products in China?

May account for recent price weakness.

Here is that bit of info, bit googling on Junelaboa might bring up more details. I couldn't be bothered...

"A local Chinese company called Junlebao is launching an A2-protein infant milk formula in the Chinese market, another challenge for New Zealand stock-market darling a2 Milk. Junlebao's milk is sourced from China, Citi says, meaning that Chinese dairy farms have possibly built a reliable A2-protein milk pool that could spur even more competition. "This could suggest that other domestic brands are close to launching A2-protein formulas, should they all use the same local milk source," Citi says.

[couta1]

I wonder how much A2 the product contains,? may not be 100%, 99.99% is not good enough. PS-Citi are milking this all the way to the bank, despicable operators.

[freddagg]

I wonder how much A2 the product contains,? may not be 100%, 99.99% is not good enough. PS-Citi are milking this all the way to the bank, despicable operators.

How much melamine does it contain?

[couta1]

How much melamine does it contain? Very good question and one I'm sure the punters will answer with their closed wallets as a precaution.

[Oberon]

I wonder how much A2 the product contains,? may not be 100%, 99.99% is not good enough. PS-Citi are milking this all the way to the bank, despicable operators.

It does seem they're determined to beat down A2 as much as they can in the absence of any new information from management. I only hope A2 are holding back a Rocky style comeback for the AGM.

[couta1]

It does seem they're determined to beat down A2 as much as they can in the absence of any new information from management. I only hope A2 are holding back a Rocky style comeback for the AGM. Unfortunately Mr Teeger from Citi failed to mention anything about melamine in his latest article, mind you he has a notorious record for being wrong on this stock so he wouldn't want to undermine his companies latest short attack, the fact that punters believe these clowns is a worry though.

[blundoon]

NZX has announced a late open of 12:45pm - due to "issues experienced earlier today with the trading system".

I tried to copy and paste it, but failed...

[Oberon]

$11.54 on ASX.

Yikes.

[couta1]

$11.54 on ASX.

Yikes. Best to baton down the hatches and watch from the sidelines as others lose money unless your a buyer. Lol

[see weed]

NZX has announced a late open of 12:45pm - due to "issues experienced earlier today with the trading system".

I tried to copy and paste it, but failed...
Pity it didn't stay closed for the rest of the day.

[Balance]

$11.54 on ASX.

Yikes.

$11.45 now and before NZX opens.

On a day when US markets are moving to new record highs.

There is something out there which is prompting the relentless selling.

[waterboy]

I reckon the P/E ratio not looking to bad now, based on a forward EPS of 47 cents that gives us a PE of 24, using australian price of 11.43. Hope i'm not mixing up my currencies but doesnt seem high for growing company.
Companies could stop some of these shorting games by reporting more often, it is a long time between real financial data.

[couta1]

$11.45 now and before NZX opens.

On a day when US markets are moving to new record highs.

There is something out there which is prompting the relentless selling. It should be obvious to you Balance, it is to me. PS-What Citi/UBS are doing may not be illegal but it's certainly immoral and despicable.

[tomm]

Here is that bit of info, bit googling on Junelaboa might bring up more details. I couldn't be bothered...

"A local Chinese company called Junlebao is launching an A2-protein infant milk formula in the Chinese market, another challenge for New Zealand stock-market darling a2 Milk. Junlebao's milk is sourced from China, Citi says, meaning that Chinese dairy farms have possibly built a reliable A2-protein milk pool that could spur even more competition. "This could suggest that other domestic brands are close to launching A2-protein formulas, should they all use the same local milk source," Citi says.
That's Ok, it is natural to get jealous for being trustworthy and famous.!

[Balance]

It should be obvious to you Balance, it is to me. PS-What Citi/UBS are doing may not be illegal but it's certainly immoral and despicable.

$11.40 and still falling.

I am not as sure and confident as you are that it's only because of Citi's recommendation and shorting activity. ATM is a very liquid stock and is well researched, so one would expect other brokers and investors to take the opportunity to load up on shares if it's just Citi.

https://au.finance.yahoo.com/news/why-a2-milk-company-share-024934255.html

"Another negative is the increasing competition it is facing in China. Hot on the heels of Mead Johnson entering the a2-only infant formula market last month, a local producer has just done the same.
Chinese baby formula and yogurt maker Shijiazhuang Junlebao Dairy has launched its a2-protein only formula. This is the first time that a major domestic producer has entered this market."

So competition wise, we now have Nestle, Junlebao (local-government owned) and Mead Johnson.

So Mead Johnson is the other multi-national which has entered the A2 milk market in China.

[alex f]

meaning that Chinese dairy farms have POSSIBLY built a reliable A2-protein milk pool that COULD spur even more competition. "This COULD SUGGEST that other domestic brands are close to launching A2-protein formulas, should they all use the same local milk source," Citi says.
Wasnt it Citi and UBS that put a target price of 17.50 not long ago. They boost the price and drag it down to line their own pockets

[bull....]

hammer time right on que from the breakdown yesterday

[Onion]

"A local Chinese company called Junlebao is launching an A2-protein infant milk formula in the Chinese market, another challenge for New Zealand stock-market darling a2 Milk. Junlebao's milk is sourced from China, Citi says, meaning that Chinese dairy farms have possibly built a reliable A2-protein milk pool that could spur even more competition. "This could suggest that other domestic brands are close to launching A2-protein formulas, should they all use the same local milk source," Citi says.

What, if any, income streams accrue to ATM when producers such as Junlebao produce A2 milk products. As long as they don't violate any of ATM's patents and trademarks I'm guessing that they can produce as much as they like and ATM will be completely out of the [earnings] loop.

And what is to stop many others following suit -- culminating in ATM being sidelined in the A2 milk world they initiated?

[Balance]

What, if any, income streams accrue to ATM when producers such as Junlebao produce A2 milk products. As long as they don't violate any of ATM's patents and trademarks I'm guessing that they can produce as much as they like and ATM will be completely out of the [earnings] loop.

And what is to stop many others following suit -- culminating in ATM being sidelined in the A2 milk world they initiated?

ATM is the market leader so it will not get sidelined as long as it maintains its position on the market - hence the increased marketing and promotion spend (which should be understood now and supported by all shareholders).

Question is one of margins - it is clear that other players are attracted to the A2 market with its high margins (created by ATM) so margins will inevitably come under pressure.

[Balance]

It should be obvious to you Balance, it is to me. PS-What Citi/UBS are doing may not be illegal but it's certainly immoral and despicable.

We cannot influence what Citi/UBS are doing but we can keep our emotions in check and if appropriate, take advantage of the opportunity to buy stock cheap.

Big boys' game - shorting and the shorters have been badly mauled by ATM before (in 2017 and 2018).

[couta1]

We cannot influence what Citi/UBS are doing but we can keep our emotions in check and if appropriate, take advantage of the opportunity to buy stock cheap.

Big boys' game - shorting and the shorters have been badly mauled by ATM before (in 2017 and 2018). I'm all in so cant buy anymore however I have been selling parcels for a loss and buying back cheaper to drive my avg price down and end up with more shares, still it takes a good stomach to watch your holding get knocked many hundred thousand into the red.

[Oberon]

I'm all in so cant buy anymore however I have been selling parcels for a loss and buying back cheaper to drive my avg price down and end up with more shares, still it takes a good stomach to watch your holding get knocked many hundred thousand into the red.

Well, as a newbie to the investing / trading game - with A2 as my first big play 10 weeks ago - I can tell you my stomach has endured a LOT. But, I haven't been shaken out. I'm in too deep now, lol. I had considered what you've been doing, but every time I think we've hit near the bottom, down we go further.

Overall, I'm framing this as a very valuable learning experience. I hope having to endure this and learn from some classic newbie mistakes will benefit me in the long run. I had hoped to at least break even by the end of the year, but that's looking increasingly unlikely.

[see weed]

I'm all in so cant buy anymore however I have been selling parcels for a loss and buying back cheaper to drive my avg price down and end up with more shares, still it takes a good stomach to watch your holding get knocked many hundred thousand into the red.
Not to worry, we've been through it all before, and we know what to do....plan B. Down about $4b in 3 months. Would this have much effect on the rest of the market?

[tomm]

Jobs are done and will hang round until AGM :)

[sb9]

We cannot influence what Citi/UBS are doing but we can keep our emotions in check and if appropriate, take advantage of the opportunity to buy stock cheap.

Big boys' game - shorting and the shorters have been badly mauled by ATM before (in 2017 and 2018).

Big big test for Jayne's leadership now, a slight miss on forecast (consensus not company's own) and we are downhill from high of $17+ to $12+ and still falling.

It'll be very very intriguing and interesting ASM indeed, thanks goodness its in Akl not in Aus.

[winner69]

Big big test for Jayne's leadership now, a slight miss on forecast (consensus not company's own) and we are downhill from high of $17+ to $12+ and still falling.

It'll be very very intriguing and interesting ASM indeed, thanks goodness its in Akl not in Aus.

Does Jayne’s leadership have much influence on short term share price movements (except when she sells)?

Jayne has laid out what A2 are doing and what that will likely return and we need to assume that Jayne is leading the company well and they will deliver as expected.


The share price is at the whims of the punters ...sometimes they like A2 and other times they dislike A2

Betcha some punters don’t even know what A2 do - it’s just a ticker code to them

[Balance]

Does Jayne’s leadership have much influence on short term share price movements (except when she sells)?

Jayne has laid out what A2 are doing and what that will likely return and we need to assume that Jayne is leading the company well and they will deliver as expected.


The share price is at the whims of the punters ...sometimes they like A2 and other times they dislike A2

Betcha some punters don’t even know what A2 do - it’s just a ticker code to them

Good point, W69 - like vultures to meat, some punters would have been trading the stock due to its volatility.

Been great until it reversed trend (either way)!

[sb9]

MAJOR CHINESE COMPETITOR JOINS THE A2 PARTY - CITIhttp://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/1a20c607/major-chinese-competitor-joins-the-a2-party-citi.html

[couta1]

MAJOR CHINESE COMPETITOR JOINS THE A2 PARTY - CITI

http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/1a20c607/major-chinese-competitor-joins-the-a2-party-citi.html Same as the Herald article, full of crap and melamine. Get a life Teeger, I mean an ethical one.

[tomm]

Is it me or something is happen to NZ , all my entire watch list of NZX is in Big Red today ???

[Southern_Belle]

I'm all in so cant buy anymore however I have been selling parcels for a loss and buying back cheaper to drive my avg price down and end up with more shares, still it takes a good stomach to watch your holding get knocked many hundred thousand into the red.I hear ya couta1, however I remember watching your posts when Xero was mauled a number of years ago as I was in the same boat as you. I panicked then & sold out then felt sick as it started to rise. Look at Xero now

[BlackPeter]

Is it me or something is happen to NZ , all my entire watch list of NZX is in Big Red today ???

NZX50 down 0.8% as I post this. Not a biggie, but if you watch the wrong stocks it might add up :);

[couta1]

I hear ya couta1, however I remember watching your posts when Xero was mauled a number of years ago as I was in the same boat as you. I panicked then & sold out then felt sick as it started to rise. Look at Xero now Made reasonable profit from XRO during my time holding(Averaged down from $42 to $20 as I remember) of course it could have been hugely better but therein lies the lesson in relation to A2, be patient and think about where the sp will be in a few years.

[peat]

Is it me or something is happen to NZ , all my entire watch list of NZX is in Big Red today ???
not every stock is down

[Beagle]

MAJOR CHINESE COMPETITOR JOINS THE A2 PARTY - CITIhttp://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/1a20c607/major-chinese-competitor-joins-the-a2-party-citi.html

Looks like a potential game changer to me. Life is getting more and more difficult but no worries for our Jayne as she will simply keep doubling the marketing budget every year as what could possibly go wrong...

[couta1]

Looks like a potential game changer to me. Life is getting more and more difficult but no worries for our Jayne as she will simply keep doubling the marketing budget every year as what could possibly go wrong... Sorry Beagle but your really not doing your homework on this stock to make a comment like your opening line, I suggest you spend a day over at Hotcopper and read the posts by the knowledgeable long term holders on all the different threads and you will then become better informed, anyway I'll leave things for now as I've said enough and I ain't selling.

[Beagle]

Been too busy today mate. Chart looks horrendous. Good luck.

[Ggcc]

Looks like a potential game changer to me. Life is getting more and more difficult but no worries for our Jayne as she will simply keep doubling the marketing budget every year as what could possibly go wrong...
Did ATM not mention that they relished companies following their example about the A2 protein milk. The more people produce A2 milk the more people believe and follow the story.

[Balance]

Did ATM not mention that they relished companies following their example about the A2 protein milk. The more people produce A2 milk the more people believe and follow the story.

The Coca-Cola example.

[Balance]

Been too busy today mate. Chart looks horrendous. Good luck.

You mean, a break below A$11.30 will see A2M test A$10.50 as the next support level?

[peat]

To me it (the chart) looks like it might be coming to the end of a 3 month downswing, because the last wave is losing momentum and could be an ending diagonal.
IF SO ( a fairly big if) then we could see another short down turn (such as today) being some sort of exhaustion point, maybe a gap, followed by a sharp recovery.
Maybe?

[Balance]

To me it (the chart) looks like it might be coming to the end of a 3 month downswing, because the last wave is losing momentum and could be an ending diagonal.
IF SO ( a fairly big if) then we could see another short down turn (such as today) being some sort of exhaustion point, maybe a gap, followed by a sharp recovery.
Maybe?

Closed on ASX at $11.31 - just hanging on.

Let’s see what tomorrow brings.

I expect that the Citi-induced selling should be out of the way.

[Lewylewylewy]

My gutometer says that this isn't the bottom, but I believe it'll be fine as a long term hold. It's a good company, with plenty itd growth ahead. Sure the fruit isn't low hanging anymore, but there's still plenty.

[Beagle]

You mean, a break below A$11.30 will see A2M test A$10.50 as the next support level?

I think a test of the baseline support level of around $NZ10 is quite plausible. It just keeps getting tougher for ATM and the consensus average FY20 PE with average estimated eps of 44 cps at $12.30 is 28. That's too high for a company with very rapidly slowing eps growth and the clear need to invest vast amounts on marketing on an ongoing basis to differentiate their product from the ever increasing range of others. A forward PE in the early 20's looks more appropriate to me for the much slower eps growth and higher risks. 23 x 44 cps gives ~ $N.Z10. https://www.marketscreener.com/A2-MILK-COMPANY-LTD-11384022/financials/
I think anyone thinking ATM can wind back their spend on marketing in future years is taking a far too sanguine view of how future competition will develop and thus I expect margins to remain under pressure in the years ahead. Current average analyst expectation is for a slight increase in gross margin in FY21 and FY22

I think the opposite is more likely and we'll see ATM having to further significantly increase their marketing spend in the years ahead.
Sometime in the next decade I expect ATM will be viewed as just another milk commodity company as the ever wider proliferation of competitor A2 products companies vastly expands. We could then see ATM trade on a multiple in the mid to late teens like Danone.

[couta1]

Haha another Danone which is currently trading at around $127NZ equivalent, I'd be happy with that. PS-In time very possible.

[RGR367]

Not really looking for it but saw a couple of A2 1 kg skim milk bags for sale at a medicinal store (Yu Yuen Tong Medicines Company) here in Kowloon for HK$95. The bags got best before dates of 29 Nov '19.
FYI only.

[t.rexjr]

I think the opposite is more likely and we'll see ATM having to further significantly increase their marketing spend in the years ahead.
Sometime in the next decade I expect ATM will be viewed as just another milk commodity company as the ever wider proliferation of competitor A2 products companies vastly expands. We could then see ATM trade on a multiple in the mid to late teens like Danone.

Jeez Beagz, Lets hope so... Curtail marketing and evaporate into oblivion or water the grass and become Danone! The spend is vital and increasing it would be an absolute. Gotta spend money to make money aye!

[Southern_Belle]

I remember when kiwifruit started to be exported to China and people caught taking kiwifruit vines to China ..... woe it was the end of the world and our export market .....never happened Apple's, cherries, kiwifruit.....we still can't export enough.

What about water being taken from Chch and sold in China...... of course they have that in China too and import from other parts of the world.

China is securing quality food sources for it's burgeoning population. It doesn't matter if another player ......there still won't be enough a2 milk to meet demand worldwide. There is no glut of product in the market.

Holders sit tight .... brighter days on the horizon

[winner69]

Hope Jayne not being too distracted by this

https://www.stuff.co.nz/sport/tennis/117224233/margaret-courts-rocket-to-tennis-australia-treat-me-like-rod-laver

[couta1]

I remember when kiwifruit started to be exported to China and people caught taking kiwifruit vines to China ..... woe it was the end of the world and our export market .....never happened Apple's, cherries, kiwifruit.....we still can't export enough.

What about water being taken from Chch and sold in China...... of course they have that in China too and import from other parts of the world.

China is securing quality food sources for it's burgeoning population. It doesn't matter if another player ......there still won't be enough a2 milk to meet demand worldwide. There is no glut of product in the market.

Holders sit tight .... brighter days on the horizon Well said, holders sit tight and dont listen to unresearched barking.

[bull....]

Well said, holders sit tight and dont listen to unresearched barking.

the shorters are in control so that is cause for concern lol unless your short

[bull....]

This could suggest that other domestic brands are close to launching A2-protein formulas, should they all use the same local milk source," he added. Junlebao is controlled by the Hebei provincial government.

http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/1a20c607/major-chinese-competitor-joins-the-a2-party-citi.html

and dont forget westland dairy in NZ will now grow a pool of a2 cows to supply these chinese companies. the chinese are very smart in building chinese owned supply chains

[tomm]

Paul Rickard, co-founder of the Switzer Report thinks a2 is a buy. This was two weeks ago so today’s price must now be a screaming buy! Thanks @kobbie (https://hotcopper.com.au/members/145740/) for supplying a link to NABTrade article dated 22 Oct:

“A share price around $12 is a lot more attractive than the $17.30 the stock was trading at in late July.
Technicians might argue that it is too early to buy, with the 60-day moving average (currently $13.59) recently slipping below the 200-day moving average ($13.94). They’d say to wait until the 60-day average had climbed back over the 200 day average, and that the technicals suggest that there might be more price weakness to come.
But this stock is definitely on my radar and I am looking to buy. A2 Milk holds its AGM on 17 November, where the company is expected to provide a trading update for the first four months.

I like the look of A2 Milk. I can’t think of too many companies with these sort of growth rates, credible management team (led by Jayne Hrdlicka) and cashed up, strong balance sheet, trading on multiples under 30.”
10835

What do the brokers sayThe brokers are positive on the stock but worried about margin pressure as the company pursues growth in China and the USA. They don’t seem to doubt the market opportunity or that it can build share but rather the price of building brand and scaling distribution. Earnings per share growth is expected to fall from 45.4% in FY19 to 18.0% in FY20 (NZ 46.3c), before accelerating in FY21 to 24.7% (NZ 57.8c).
According to FN Arena, there are two buy recommendations, two neutral recommendations and two sell recommendations. The consensus target price of the major brokers is $13.89, approximately 13.6% higher than Friday’s close of $12.23. Individual recommendations are set out in the table below.

10835

On a multiple basis, the brokers have A2 Milk trading at 28.2 times forecast FY20 earnings and 22.7 times forecast FY21 earnings. No dividend is forecast for FY20.
Here’s my view
I like the look of A2 Milk. I can’t think of too mhttps://www.nabtrade.com.au/content/dam/nabtrade/nabtrade2017/Insights_Charts/a2m-broker.pngany companies with these sort of growth rates, credible management team (led by Jayne Hrdlicka) and cashed up, strong balance sheet, trading on multiples under 30.”

[dobby41]

Technicians might argue that it is too early to buy, with the 60-day moving average (currently $13.59) recently slipping below the 200-day moving average ($13.94). They’d say to wait until the 60-day average had climbed back over the 200 day average, and that the technicals suggest that there might be more price weakness to come.

He was right - the technicals did suggest more price weakness to come!

[sb9]

This could suggest that other domestic brands are close to launching A2-protein formulas, should they all use the same local milk source," he added. Junlebao is controlled by the Hebei provincial government.

http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/1a20c607/major-chinese-competitor-joins-the-a2-party-citi.html

and dont forget westland dairy in NZ will now grow a pool of a2 cows to supply these chinese companies. the chinese are very smart in building chinese owned supply chains

Isn't it the whole point though that Prof Woodford has been driving forward that in future all milk will eventually be A2. And that's gotta be great for first mover with brand image like A2 milk and their IF products.

[sb9]

Looks like a potential game changer to me. Life is getting more and more difficult but no worries for our Jayne as she will simply keep doubling the marketing budget every year as what could possibly go wrong...

Not so sure of that term though...its just the usual dirt throwing job citi prior to key event like ASM. Honestly, do we all think chinese are going to trust their own pool of A2 milk production?

[bull....]

Isn't it the whole point though that Prof Woodford has been driving forward that in future all milk will eventually be A2. And that's gotta be great for first mover with brand image like A2 milk and their IF products.

the chinese party mantra is to build supply chains owned by chinese companies to supply china so first mover advantage means nothing in the long run.

[Sideshow Bob]

Isn't it the whole point though that Prof Woodford has been driving forward that in future all milk will eventually be A2. And that's gotta be great for first mover with brand image like A2 milk and their IF products.

Timeframe for that would be huge, but a lot of cockies already using A2 bulls, so would be part-way there in NZ at least.

[sb9]

the chinese party mantra is to build supply chains owned by chinese companies to supply china so first mover advantage means nothing in the long run.

Not until another melamine scare happens which puts those Chinese babies at risk, right?

[stoploss]

I remember when kiwifruit started to be exported to China and people caught taking kiwifruit vines to China ..... woe it was the end of the world and our export market .....never happened Apple's, cherries, kiwifruit.....we still can't export enough.

What about water being taken from Chch and sold in China...... of course they have that in China too and import from other parts of the world.

China is securing quality food sources for it's burgeoning population. It doesn't matter if another player ......there still won't be enough a2 milk to meet demand worldwide. There is no glut of product in the market.

Holders sit tight .... brighter days on the horizon

talk about coal to Newcastle ...... Kiwifruit exporters definitely suffered by vines being exported to Italy and their subsequent production. I believe it was not until they developed the new varieties that they really hit their straps again ( happy to be corrected on this )
I think the problem here is the high margin is likely to come down if they have a competing product that they feel is in some way comparable.

[Balance]

https://www.ig.com/uk/news-and-trade-ideas/a2-milk-share-price--whats-the-outlook-as-a-new-competitor-emerg-191106

Worth a read to put the Junlebao's competitive threat in some perspective.

Meanwhile, the record high of A$17.50 seems a long time away but was only 3 months' ago!

https://www.ig.com/uk/news-and-trade-ideas/a2-milk-shares-climb-to-record-highs-of--17-25-190731

Article in July 2019,

"..... that its latest investor presentation, the company stressed that it is aggressively investing in China and the US in an attempt to boost brand awareness.

While the company flagged that this increased marketing spend would eat into margins, investors are unlikely to be overly concerned by this, given the potential long-term benefits of gaining deeper market penetration."

Turned out investors are very concerned about the increased marketing spend but really, imo, only because ATM disappointed ever so slightly with its results on 21st August.

So the ASM is going to be absolutely crucial to where ATM's sp is going to track next :

1. If there is any hint of another downgrade, I fully expect sp to track towards A$10.00 and I will be out.

2. If revenues are growing significantly on the back of the increased marketing and promotional spend, I expect the sp to track much higher and the shorters will scramble to cover.

Meanwhile, happy to stay on the sideline in the absence of any new information.

[couta1]

the chinese party mantra is to build supply chains owned by chinese companies to supply china so first mover advantage means nothing in the long run. All your negative posts that spring up only when the sp is under pressure, it's just trolling to fit your own agenda.

[tomm]

Not until another melamine scare happens which puts those Chinese babies at risk, right?

Why Chinese's Goods and Dairy are Untrusted and Cheapest??

They skipped the regulations and qualities checks, these steps cost the Western, Australia and New Zealand a huge cost to add on the price.
They bear the cost of living and greedy of their personals by corrupted the persons in charge of Checking Regulations to make money.
The materials are skipped, the steels are mixed with others cheapers minerals and getting thinners in standards, the foods are unregulated, the water and soils are poisoned and they grow veges and sells.
These bears a huge cost to the standard of Dairy for the Western to add on the cost. Funny enough the products come out do look the same, do feel the same, and consumers may feel better due to strongly Advertisings, saving cost and support the Communist Party but they fail and hide on promises of qualities.
The higher educated Chinese young generations won't let that happens to their children and lives, they have money, the research show : Chinese middle income and billionaisr are increasing at a level never before.
They understand and have knowledges to use the Western dairy's Aus and NZ, Usa...
Look at Cosco stores open in Chinese and how they were rushing to buy the Usa goods.I am sure there are also Chinese's locals stores next doors are selling those goods for just $1,2,3 dollars...


P/S:Please correct me if I am wrong on the basis of the thinking.

[sb9]

All your negative posts that spring up only when the sp is under pressure, it's just trolling to fit your own agenda.

Agree, its one thing about fact finding and completely another with an agenda in this case looking for lower entry price.

[bull....]

All your negative posts that spring up only when the sp is under pressure, it's just trolling to fit your own agenda.

trolling rubbish. my first post for a while here highlighted the chart breakdown happening and has proved in hindsight correct this far. you may not be happy im right so far but im sure someone is happy for the post and if you are short at the moment im sure your happy.

[dobby41]

Isn't it the whole point though that Prof Woodford has been driving forward that in future all milk will eventually be A2. And that's gotta be great for first mover with brand image like A2 milk and their IF products.

First mover isn't an advantage when it becomes a commodity.
They will probably have an advantage from being NZ made but not because they were the first in.

[dobby41]

Not until another melamine scare happens which puts those Chinese babies at risk, right?

Just remember what happened to the CEO in that case - other will be wary of being caught.
In time trust in Chinese products will increase but probably not to the level of trust in NZ (and other overseas) products.

[sb9]

First mover isn't an advantage when it becomes a commodity.
They will probably have an advantage from being NZ made but not because they were the first in.

Sure, but first mover with brand image like that of "A2 Platinum" for their IF range is invaluable imo.

[sb9]

Just remember what happened to the CEO in that case - other will be wary of being caught.
In time trust in Chinese products will increase but probably not to the level of trust in NZ (and other overseas) products.

Time will tell and I agree to disagree on that.

[couta1]

trolling rubbish. my first post for a while here highlighted the chart breakdown happening and has proved in hindsight correct this far. you may not be happy im right so far but im sure someone is happy for the post and if you are short at the moment im sure your happy. None of your downramping/trolling to push your own agenda is going to make one scrap of difference to where the sp of this company will be a year from now, I have a seven figured sum invested and are fully researched and confident that long term the returns will be outstanding, I'm not interested in a short term myopic viewpoint, I think the same about my other big holding HLG.

[RTM]

First mover isn't an advantage when it becomes a commodity.
They will probably have an advantage from being NZ made but not because they were the first in.

Apple is still doing OK Dobby. Maybe that's a valid analogy.
Hope so for holders.

[tomm]

He was right - the technicals did suggest more price weakness to come!

It's like the Lawyer always says to you : You have a 80% chances of winning the case :)

[Beagle]

None of your downramping/trolling to push your own agenda is going to make one scrap of difference to where the sp of this company will be a year from now, I have a seven figured sum invested and are fully researched and confident that long term the returns will be outstanding, I'm not interested in a short term myopic viewpoint, I think the same about my other big holding HLG.

Human psychology is a curious thing my friend. I find myself when at times I have an oversized position in a company its very easy to get myopic vision myself. The other thing that tends to happen is confirmation bias where one consciously or subconsciously simply ignores negative information. I see many posts on here from holders of large positions which indicates this propensity towards myopic vision and confirmation bias are widespread and common tendencies. I avoid grossly excessive positions now days because I find its very difficult to be objective, dispassionate and non emotional. Quite apart from that I believe excessively large positions invoke significant additional risk to one's portfolio and it may be best to sit back and ask oneself why am I taking excessive risk by being concentrated in just a few stocks ? Is it greed, gross recklessness or what is it that drives one to do this ?
There is almost universal agreement amongst investment professionals that a well diversified portfolio gives the optimum balance between risk and return...however that doesn't stop some people from thinking they know better. Good luck, you're going to need it to get out of this hole you dug for yourself. I'll leave you alone to lick your wounds for a while.

[Balance]

Human psychology is a curious thing my friend. I find myself when at times I have an oversized position in a company its very easy to get myopic vision myself. The other thing that tends to happen is confirmation bias where one consciously or subconsciously simply ignores negative information. I see many posts on here from holders of large positions which indicates this propensity towards myopic vision and confirmation bias are widespread and common tendencies. I avoid grossly excessive positions now days because I find its very difficult to be objective, dispassionate and non emotional. Quite apart from that I believe excessively large positions invoke significant additional risk to one's portfolio and it may be best to sit back and ask oneself why am I taking excessive risk by being concentrated in just a few stocks ? Is it greed, gross recklessness or what is it that drives one to do this ?
There is almost universal agreement amongst investment professionals that a well diversified portfolio gives the optimum balance between risk and return...however that doesn't stop some people from thinking they know better. Good luck, you're going to need it to get out of this hole you dug for yourself. I'll leave you alone to lick your wounds for a while.

Courage of conviction, based upon proper research and insights, can be another reason for taking a big position. Hope all of us do it from time to time.

You still holding your exposure in ATM shares via Kingfisher funds?

[Beagle]

Courage of conviction, based upon proper research and insights, can be another reason for taking a big position.

You still holding your exposure in ATM shares via Kingfisher funds?

Kingfish's approach of having 60% of their investments in their top 5 stocks, and only 15 selections, after long and very thoughtful reflection does not sit especially comfortably with me. Barramundi is spread over approx. 25 stocks and their biggest position is about 7% (top 5 positions total about 30%). Fair to say there's a vastly higher number of growth stocks on the ASX than the NZX. Its become very clear to me that seeing as I pick most of my NZX stocks myself, (and won't pick individual overseas stocks), I can achieve vastly better portfolio diversification by investing in Barramundi and Marlin.

[dobby41]

Apple is still doing OK Dobby. Maybe that's a valid analogy.
Hope so for holders.

Yip Apple is doing OK but are they doing as OK as they would if they didn't have the competition they do now?
There was a time where Apple was IT but they are now one of many.
So ATM will still do OK but they aren't the only name in the game now.

[Ggcc]

You could compare ATM to RYM and any other A2 producer as SUM or OCA. Ryman are valued higher for their own reasons and the same will apply to ATM. That is only my opinion and how I feel describes people’s perception will be when A2 is mentioned in the future.

[couta1]

Sorry Beagle but I never would have been the runner I was or the skier I am with your outlook, with big risk comes big rewards that's my mantra, go hard or go home your not here for long.

[carrom74]

Sorry Beagle but I never would have been the runner I was or the skier I am with your outlook, with big risk comes big rewards that's my mantra, go hard or go home your not here for long.

I have sold all my holdings and re-invested in this stock(just have one stock on my portfolio)...Bought until yesterday on dips..

Go long or go home...i concur too...

[see weed]

Up 32c in last hour, is this the start of the long upward climb? Good buying in the low 12.20s this morning:).

[Bobdn]

Sorry Beagle but I never would have been the runner I was or the skier I am with your outlook, with big risk comes big rewards that's my mantra, go hard or go home your not here for long.


Unless, you're Mungar, Buffett, or Mark Cuban and have an incredible ability to pick stocks and investments, I think a good deal of diversification is important. Of course, even these guys are way more diversified than you. Even Jim Cramer recommends 10 to 15 stocks and this is considered a pretty narrow, aggressive, approach.

Since retiring I've definitely become more conservative in my investing outlook. I assume you're down $300K or more on this investment from what you've written? If you win big here (and I hope you do because most NZ investors have exposure to A2M in some way) will you hang up your boots and think "gee, that was lucky"? I would. I'd be heading for the index and ETF hills.

As Buffett says, don't bet the farm.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-buffett-letter/dont-bet-the-farm-keep-investments-simple-diversified-buffett-idUSBREA1N1H520140224

[couta1]

Unless, you're Mungar, Buffett, or Mark Cuban and have an incredible ability to pick stocks and investments, I think a good deal of diversification is important. Of course, even these guys are way more diversified than you. Even Jim Cramer recommends 10 to 15 stocks and this is considered a pretty narrow, aggressive, approach.

Since retiring I've definitely become more conservative in my investing outlook. I assume you're down $300K or more on this investment from what you've written? If you win big here (and I hope you do because most NZ investors have exposure to A2M in some way) will you hang up your boots and think "gee, that was lucky"? I would. I'd be heading for the index and ETF hills.

As Buffett says, don't bet the farm.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-buffett-letter/dont-bet-the-farm-keep-investments-simple-diversified-buffett-idUSBREA1N1H520140224 Follow the beat of your own drum I say and do what works for you at any given stage, dont let anyone tell you what you can or cant do no matter what their credentials are.. PS-Yes down more than 300k, double that nearly.

[Bobdn]

Folliw the beat of your own drum I say and do what works for you at any given stage, dont let anyone tell you what you can or cant do no matter what their credentials are.. PS-Yes down more than 300k, double that.

Well, good luck. Not that this means anything in the investment world but you come across as a decent, hard working guy and I sincerely hope it works out for you.

[couta1]

Well, good luck. Not that this means anything in the investment world but you come across as a decent, hard working guy and I sincerely hope it works out for you. Thanks Bobdn and all the best to you also, we both have a connection having been through the CNU fire together all those years ago.

[sb9]

Follow the beat of your own drum I say and do what works for you at any given stage, dont let anyone tell you what you can or cant do no matter what their credentials are.. PS-Yes down more than 300k, double that nearly.

Wow, that's some serious coin there...wish you well.

[Sideshow Bob]

Seeking to reduce reliance on imports.....


"We see growing demand for high-end, organic products,"

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/farming/117226124/baby-formula-billionaire-a-winner-as-china-plans-to-make-more-of-its-own

[couta1]

Wow, that's some serious coin there...wish you well. Yeah that's why we live in an old house and I drive an old car, all retirement money in the market not property.

[tomm]

Yeah that's why we live in an old house and I drive an old car, all retirement money in the market not property.

As long as you are happy, at the end all of these are just great experimences of a life time nothing more. I wish you luck.

[Southern_Belle]

This could suggest that other domestic brands are close to launching A2-protein formulas, should they all use the same local milk source," he added. Junlebao is controlled by the Hebei provincial government.

http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/1a20c607/major-chinese-competitor-joins-the-a2-party-citi.html

and dont forget westland dairy in NZ will now grow a pool of a2 cows to supply these chinese companies. the chinese are very smart in building chinese owned supply chains China with their eyes on expansion ....may be in the market to purchase A2m?? Their investment in producing A2 Milk is a compliment. Not that long ago people were saying A2 protein was just a marketing gimmick...... seems not

[RTM]

Sorry Beagle but I never would have been the runner I was or the skier I am with your outlook, with big risk comes big rewards that's my mantra, go hard or go home your not here for long.

Great to know re the skiing and running Couta. I'm a pretty OK sailor, still sailing competitively as best I can and as the aging body allows. Also loving my mountain biking, trying to keep up with my son.
Recommend you separate your physical activity strategies from your investment ones. They are different animals. I think you have seen my previous posts on diversification, Beagle still teasing me on allowing HGH to got to >9%. (Honest...it was an accident. )
All the best, RTM.

[see weed]

Seeking to reduce reliance on imports.....


"We see growing demand for high-end, organic products,"

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/farming/117226124/baby-formula-billionaire-a-winner-as-china-plans-to-make-more-of-its-own
The above products are a1? Shouldn't have any effect on a2. If a2 was an orange and a1 is a lemon, then shoppers going out to buy lots of a2 oranges are not going to come home with a whole lot of lemons :D.

[steve9]

I had a question about buying A2M on the ASX. The IRD share exemption tool says that A2M does not qualify under the Australian share exemption :

https://www.classic.ird.govt.nz/calculators/tool-name/tools-a/aus-share-exemption-calc-2017.html

Is this correct and since I am a NZ resident, I assume I would be better off buying the NZX listed ATM for not having to pay any tax on gains.

[t.rexjr]

............

[t.rexjr]

I had a question about buying A2M on the ASX. The IRD share exemption tool says that A2M does not qualify under the Australian share exemption :

https://www.classic.ird.govt.nz/calculators/tool-name/tools-a/aus-share-exemption-calc-2017.html

Is this correct and since I am a NZ resident, I assume I would be better off buying the NZX listed ATM for not having to pay any tax on gains.

We let the Aussies make and eat pavlova. But it's still ours...

[Beagle]

Follow the beat of your own drum I say and do what works for you at any given stage, dont let anyone tell you what you can or cant do no matter what their credentials are.. PS-Yes down more than 300k, double that nearly.

Extra homework for you mate. https://www.biblemoneymatters.com/bible-verses-about-investing/

[couta1]

Extra homework for you mate. https://www.biblemoneymatters.com/bible-verses-about-investing/ Actually competitive sports can teach you a lot of good traits that you need to be a go hard or go home investor, traits such as Perseverance/Patience/Adaption/Toughness/Vision and a Never say die attitude to name but a few, whoops I must mention multitasking(Yes that includes the ability to trade shares whilst riding the chairlift in a blizzard) PS-You altered your post and removed the bit on sports while I was typing(Naughty)

[BlackPeter]

I had a question about buying A2M on the ASX. The IRD share exemption tool says that A2M does not qualify under the Australian share exemption :

https://www.classic.ird.govt.nz/calculators/tool-name/tools-a/aus-share-exemption-calc-2017.html

Is this correct and since I am a NZ resident, I assume I would be better off buying the NZX listed ATM for not having to pay any tax on gains.

Does not look right. ATM is actually a New Zealand company (which might be the reason that they are not in the IRD FIF tool), and the Australian shares (A2M) are in all ways identical with the New Zealand shares and can be transferred between the stock exchanges as you please.

They (A2M) should not be treated differently from the ATM NZ shares.

I assume IRD made a mistake in their tool based on the ticker being different in Australia or they just don't list NZ companies in their tool (which would make sense, given that this is about Foreign Investment Funds)

Better check with IRD or your accountant, but if it would be me I would not report them under the FIF regime but treat them as any other New Zealand share ...

[zgnz]

Does not look right. ATM is actually a New Zealand company (which might be the reason that they are not in the IRD FIF tool), and the Australian shares (A2M) are in all ways identical with the New Zealand shares and can be transferred between the stock exchanges as you please.

Agree, A2 is clearly a NZ Registered Company (https://app.companiesoffice.govt.nz/companies/app/ui/pages/companies/1014105) (that trades on the ASX (https://www.asx.com.au/asx/share-price-research/company/A2M/details))

Seems like a mistake with the tool.

[kiora]

I had a question about buying A2M on the ASX. The IRD share exemption tool says that A2M does not qualify under the Australian share exemption :

https://www.classic.ird.govt.nz/calculators/tool-name/tools-a/aus-share-exemption-calc-2017.html

Is this correct and since I am a NZ resident, I assume I would be better off buying the NZX listed ATM for not having to pay any tax on gains.

They can be transferred to NZX share registry at no cost I suspect

[pierre]

A complete move to the ASX might be good for ATM.
XRO at ATH today - almost at equivalent of $80 NZD!

[bohemian]

There is a different though, XRO is worth it's share price, ATM isn't.

[couta1]

There is a different though, XRO is worth it's share price, ATM isn't. Your kidding right, take a look at the PE of XRO and it's only just profitable compared to ATM which is a cash cow. PS-XRO is a great story but your statement is nonsense.

[Balance]

A complete move to the ASX might be good for ATM.
XRO at ATH today - almost at equivalent of $80 NZD!

Agreed 100%.

[44wishlists]

Your kidding right, take a look at the PE of XRO and it's only just profitable compared to ATM which is a cash cow. PS-XRO is a great story but your statement is nonsense.

I think he meant to type "Fonterra", instead of "ATM"... Either too much A1 protein, or Cannasouth in the bohemian's brain.

[Yoda]

Your kidding right, take a look at the PE of XRO and it's only just profitable compared to ATM which is a cash cow. PS-XRO is a great story but your statement is nonsense.
XRO. Could be major cash +ve if they stopped their agressive expansion campaign . It is where it is, due to the fact that is expanding instead of just keeping rhe cash . Looks bad on the balance sheet, but great for future domination . And to think i had loads at $ 5 and sold to pay for my daughters wedding ! JMO

[tomm]

Citi just find any reasons to shake and collect , making it sound legit :)))
Back to 2016 when they rate A2 Milk , what happened after that in 2017 and 2018?
and today 2019 rating A2 Milk ( almost same time )

Who can forget this time Citi (and the same analyst) had a sell rating on A2M in 2016

https://www.news.com.au/finance/bus...s/news-story/0b86c078e072aecd2958b4e6c0c91b61 (https://www.news.com.au/finance/business/retail/china-sales-warning-for-a2-bellamys/news-story/0b86c078e072aecd2958b4e6c0c91b61)

[couta1]

Citi just find any reasons to shake and collect , making it sound legit :)))
Back to 2016 when they rate A2 Milk , what happened after that in 2017 and 2018?
and today 2019 rating A2 Milk ( almost same time )

Who can forget this time Citi (and the same analyst) had a sell rating on A2M in 2016

https://www.news.com.au/finance/bus...s/news-story/0b86c078e072aecd2958b4e6c0c91b61 (https://www.news.com.au/finance/business/retail/china-sales-warning-for-a2-bellamys/news-story/0b86c078e072aecd2958b4e6c0c91b61) Citi are pond scum and Teeger is a tosser.

[Ggcc]

XRO. Could be major cash +ve if they stopped their agressive expansion campaign . It is where it is, due to the fact that is expanding instead of just keeping rhe cash . Looks bad on the balance sheet, but great for future domination . And to think i had loads at $ 5 and sold to pay for my daughters wedding ! JMO
This is exactly what A2 are doing. The only difference is ATM have over $500 million in the bank, they are making big profits and are expanding.

[carrom74]

http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2019-11/07/c_138535590.htm

[tomm]

http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2019-11/07/c_138535590.htm
Thanks for the info , great to see A2 Milk is present at these big markets.:t_up::t_up::t_up:

[Sideshow Bob]

Thanks for the info , great to see A2 Milk is present at these big markets.:t_up::t_up::t_up:

More than 90 NZ companies are there.

[Balance]

Why Chinese's Goods and Dairy are Untrusted and Cheapest??

They skipped the regulations and qualities checks, these steps cost the Western, Australia and New Zealand a huge cost to add on the price.
They bear the cost of living and greedy of their personals by corrupted the persons in charge of Checking Regulations to make money.
The materials are skipped, the steels are mixed with others cheapers minerals and getting thinners in standards, the foods are unregulated, the water and soils are poisoned and they grow veges and sells.
These bears a huge cost to the standard of Dairy for the Western to add on the cost. Funny enough the products come out do look the same, do feel the same, and consumers may feel better due to strongly Advertisings, saving cost and support the Communist Party but they fail and hide on promises of qualities.
The higher educated Chinese young generations won't let that happens to their children and lives, they have money, the research show : Chinese middle income and billionaisr are increasing at a level never before.
They understand and have knowledges to use the Western dairy's Aus and NZ, Usa...
Look at Cosco stores open in Chinese and how they were rushing to buy the Usa goods.I am sure there are also Chinese's locals stores next doors are selling those goods for just $1,2,3 dollars...


P/S:Please correct me if I am wrong on the basis of the thinking.

tomm, I returned from a business trip to China (primary produce focus) and after observing how things are changing over there, I think the world, but especially NZ which is ultra-dependent on China trade, are making a very grave mistake if they think that the mistrust of China food and products is going to last forever.

For sure, the Chinese population are still gripped by the many appalling scandals associated with food integrity (or lack there of).

And one does not have to go far, just the local fruit shop, to see how perfect each fruit produced in China is - free from any blemish - to know that there's still abundant use of all kinds of chemicals (insecticide, fungicide). And so I steer clear of consuming any local China fruit - likewise, the Chinese who can afford to.

But the government there is definitely cracking down on food safety violations - starting with the imposition of very strict standards, the ramp up of supervision, the imposition of very severe penalties and requirement to account at a local level for any violations. The many businessmen who I talked to are all very aware of and operate to conform to the strict regime.

As all will be aware, violations there are treated as criminal acts and the criminals are subject to very harsh penalties - including the death penalty.

In time, say 3 to 5 years, when food safety issues are no longer at the forefront of basic consideration in China, the competitive edge enjoyed by foreign goods and food could become a thing of the past.

Make hay while the sun shines and ATM under Jayne is definitely doing the right thing to build on and maintain its leading market position - sacrifice short term margins for long term market entrenchment.

Short term, ATM sp is sure to be volatile and unlikely, imo, to go gangbuster again until ATM demonstrates it is growing profits via higher revenues at lower margins. That could be 2 years away. Xero is a good case in point.

PS. The Chinese flock to every new store opening to grab the opening specials and in the case of Costco, because things are cheaper there than in other equivalent stores. Watch when they open in Auckland - it will be the same. Go to Melbourne and observe the same as in China.

[tomm]

tomm, I returned from a business trip to China (primary produce focus) and after observing how things are changing over there, I think the world, but especially NZ which is ultra-dependent on China trade, are making a very grave mistake if they think that the mistrust of China food and products is going to last forever.

For sure, the Chinese population are still gripped by the many appalling scandals associated with food integrity (or lack there of).

And one does not have to go far, just the local fruit shop, to see how perfect each fruit produced in China is - free from any blemish - to know that there's still abundant use of all kinds of chemicals (insecticide, fungicide). And so I steer clear of consuming any local China fruit - likewise, the Chinese who can afford to.

But the government there is definitely cracking down on food safety violations - starting with the imposition of very strict standards, the ramp up of supervision, the imposition of very severe penalties and requirement to account at a local level for any violations. The many businessmen who I talked to are all very aware of and operate to conform to the strict regime.

As all will be aware, violations there are treated as criminal acts and the criminals are subject to very harsh penalties - including the death penalty.

In time, say 3 to 5 years, when food safety issues are no longer at the forefront of basic consideration in China, the competitive edge enjoyed by foreign goods and food could become a thing of the past.

Make hay while the sun shines and ATM under Jayne is definitely doing the right thing to build on and maintain its leading market position - sacrifice short term margins for long term market entrenchment.

Short term, ATM sp is sure to be volatile and unlikely, imo, to go gangbuster again until ATM demonstrates it is growing profits via higher revenues at lower margins. That could be 2 years away. Xero is a good case in point.

PS. The Chinese flock to every new store opening to grab the opening specials and in the case of Costco, because things are cheaper there than in other equivalent stores. Watch when they open in Auckland - it will be the same. Go to Melbourne and observe the same as in China.
Your point of view is great, as we and other countries do import their machinery for manufacturings. They are intelligent to do so and copy, there was a time that the Western actually let them do it because the cost would be too high and can't afford to manufacturing machines themselves. But then come a time that Chinese took over the Western in manufacturing high goods. Then come the time the Western introduce Digital advance high intelligent.
Still, the Chinese are intelligent enought to skip the quality, for example a concrete post suppose to have such a mount of steel to stand for 100 years and stand for disaster at lever 8, they says : well... we don't need that much steel as long as it can last 100 years and about the disaster , it won't come why bother and if it does come ,then who knows what make the bridge collapsed... and when the time comes they are already retired. ( got away with ,millions millions of dollars)
About the dairy foods, believe me the food you see there with high price for the elite.. the apple look shining and clean and a beautiful red colour and very fresh. You have no ideas how the apple can keep looking like that for so long..
I do have families and friends whom doing this business which made me swear to myself that I will never buy any foods from China. ( although the export ones do have higher quality). The News and televisions are suppressed to those news. and no one do anything about it.
P/S although foods products come out is with the way it is intended but it is totally changed in quality once in consumers hands.

[couta1]

Chinese mums want the best sitting on their table when their relatives and friends come to visit, it's all about prestige and giving their little darlings the best plus the show off factor to boot, they dont want a second grade product or a product with a history of contamination linked to it sitting on their table.

[Leftfield]

This link (https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/cheapest-growth-stock-on-asx.5062015/page-35?post_id=41333245) to a post on the HC forum by Wicked Sushi sums up A2's position in China v well.

[Nasi Goreng]

Chinese mums want the best sitting on their table when their relatives and friends come to visit, it's all about prestige and giving their little darlings the best plus the show off factor to boot, they dont want a second grade product or a product with a history of contamination linked to it sitting on their table.

Shouldn’t they breastfeed then? They would still look good showing off at the table

[kiora]

Not just food safety violations why ASF keeps spreading?
https://www.dw.com/en/swine-fever-scientists-warn-quarter-of-worlds-pigs-could-die/a-51062018

[Balance]

In time, say 3 to 5 years, when food safety issues are no longer at the forefront of basic consideration in China, the competitive edge enjoyed by foreign goods and food could become a thing of the past.

Make hay while the sun shines and ATM under Jayne is definitely doing the right thing to build on and maintain its leading market position - sacrifice short term margins for long term market entrenchment.



Junlebao is not some mickey mouse China company - it is rapidly becoming the main domestic supplier of trusted IF in China.

http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/201905/10/WS5cd4e3aea3104842260baf24.html

Excerpt : "Last year, Junlebao sold more than 52 million cans of infant formula, which weighed 46,000 metric tons and were supplied to more than 2 million babies.

"The target for this year is to reach 75 million cans and to rank first by sales volume in the country," Wei said.

The market share of domestic formula in China increased to more than 60 percent in 2018, compared with less than 40 percent before Junlebao rolled out its formula products, according to statistics provided by the company."

[tomm]

Junlebao is not some mickey mouse China company - it is rapidly becoming the main domestic supplier of trusted IF in China.

http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/201905/10/WS5cd4e3aea3104842260baf24.html

Excerpt : "Last year, Junlebao sold more than 52 million cans of infant formula, which weighed 46,000 metric tons and were supplied to more than 2 million babies.

"The target for this year is to reach 75 million cans and to rank first by sales volume in the country," Wei said.

The market share of domestic formula in China increased to more than 60 percent in 2018, compared with less than 40 percent before Junlebao rolled out its formula products, according to statistics provided by the company."
I think these are for the A1A2 BRANDS like KeryCare and those with A1 case protein NOT A2 MILK .

[pg0220]

Shouldn’t they breastfeed then? They would still look good showing off at the table
Asian moms these days are not like what our moms used to be lol

[Balance]

I think these are for the A1A2 BRANDS like KeryCare and those with A1 case protein NOT A2 MILK .

I think you have missed the point completely, tomm.

The point being that some of you are too quick to dismiss and downplay China domestic IF players out of contention (because of the food integrity issues).

They are already getting their act together, gaining market acceptance and market share - with the full support and resources of the China government at central and state levels.

And they will definitely, imo, impact upon the A2 milk market in the years to come because they are now entering that premium market.

I believe ATM (under Jayne) is doing the right thing in recognizing the domestic competitive threat - hence the increased marketing and promotion spend.

Seriously, some of you need to research how the domestic China players are doing instead of myopically hoping that China players will never regain the confidence of China consumers.

I guess I should have sold all my ATM shares when they came out with the first profit downgrade in the full year's results but it has been such a wonderful story, it's hard to be objective at times.

[Balance]

Asian moms these days are not like what our moms used to be lol

Yup - they do not have access to the maternity leave provisions like in Western countries and to get ahead, both partners have to work.

It's a bugger, isn't it?

Much easier to be in a place like NZ where some on social welfare can produce kids by the dozens as a lifestyle choice and have the state pay for that choice. All the time in the world to feed the wretched kids 'mother's milk' - and guess what, they don't. :t_down:

[davflaws]

Much easier to be in a place like NZ where some on social welfare can produce kids by the dozens as a lifestyle choice and have the state pay for that choice. All the time in the world to feed the wretched kids 'mother's milk' - and guess what, they don't. :t_down:

And all these thousands of wretched kids will grow up morally tainted and become criminals, tree huggers, and rabid left wingers. They will adopt similar "lifestyle" choices and before we know where we are Marama Davidson will be PM and a Capital Gains Tax will make us all destitute.

Have a nice day!

[Balance]

They are already getting their act together, gaining market acceptance and market share - with the full support and resources of the China government at central and state levels.

And they will definitely, imo, impact upon the A2 milk market in the years to come because they are now entering that premium market.

I believe ATM (under Jayne) is doing the right thing in recognizing the competitive threat - hence the increased marketing and promotion spend.

Seriously, some of you need to research how the domestic China players are doing instead of myopically hoping that China players will never regain the confidence of China consumers.


To give everyone an idea of how quickly things are changing in China with the domestic IF market :

Junlebao only entered the IF market in scale in 2017, after commissioning a purpose built IF production plant in 2016. What gave the company confidence to go ahead with the brand new plant in 2016 was that China consumers were prepared to buy its IF products when it entered the market in 2014 and its market share was growing.

From a standing start, this company now sells over 50m cans of IF a year. Puts a lie, doesn't it, to the notion that China mothers will never trust China brands again.

It has commissioned another new plant which will come on stream in 2020 - https://www.dairyreporter.com/Article/2019/01/31/GEA-on-track-to-build-infant-formula-plant-for-Junlebao-Dairy-by-2020

Wake up, guys, and only invest with as much full knowledge as you can possibly obtain of what's happening in China. ;)

[couta1]

To give everyone an idea of how quickly things are changing in China with the domestic IF market :

Junlebao only entered the IF market in scale in 2017, after commissioning a purpose built IF production plant in 2016. What gave the company confidence to go ahead with the brand new plant in 2016 was that China consumers were prepared to buy its IF products when it entered the market in 2014 and its market share was growing.

From a standing start, this company now sells over 50m cans of IF a year. Puts a lie, doesn't it, to the notion that China mothers will never trust China brands again.

It has commissioned another new plant which will come on stream in 2020 - https://www.dairyreporter.com/Article/2019/01/31/GEA-on-track-to-build-infant-formula-plant-for-Junlebao-Dairy-by-2020

Wake up, guys, and only invest with as much full knowledge as you can possibly obtain of what's happening in China. ;) A2 is the future of milk worldwide China is only the current flavour of the moment, I invest in A2 because of its worldwide potential.

[Sideshow Bob]

tomm, I returned from a business trip to China (primary produce focus) and after observing how things are changing over there, I think the world, but especially NZ which is ultra-dependent on China trade, are making a very grave mistake if they think that the mistrust of China food and products is going to last forever.

For sure, the Chinese population are still gripped by the many appalling scandals associated with food integrity (or lack there of).

And one does not have to go far, just the local fruit shop, to see how perfect each fruit produced in China is - free from any blemish - to know that there's still abundant use of all kinds of chemicals (insecticide, fungicide). And so I steer clear of consuming any local China fruit - likewise, the Chinese who can afford to.

But the government there is definitely cracking down on food safety violations - starting with the imposition of very strict standards, the ramp up of supervision, the imposition of very severe penalties and requirement to account at a local level for any violations. The many businessmen who I talked to are all very aware of and operate to conform to the strict regime.

As all will be aware, violations there are treated as criminal acts and the criminals are subject to very harsh penalties - including the death penalty.

In time, say 3 to 5 years, when food safety issues are no longer at the forefront of basic consideration in China, the competitive edge enjoyed by foreign goods and food could become a thing of the past.



Definitely seeing this as well. Previously regulation had been pushed back outside borders - for importing companies to comply with, because they couldn't control what was happening inside the country. But agree there is a big push on standards. We are seeing it in our business - albeit with some levels of discrepancies between regions. Not only harder for importation, but processors under a higher level of surveillance, more spot checks, more unannounced audits, more testing etc.

Personally that distrust of many Chinese consumers in matters of domestic food safety will take a long time to break.

[RTM]

A2 is the future of milk worldwide China is only the current flavour of the moment, I invest in A2 because of its worldwide potential.

I think what you are saying with respect to A2 Milk may be valid Couta. But if it is.... it won't solely be the domain of the "The a2 Milk Company Limited". All / most milk will be A2 in time.

Take care.

[Balance]

Definitely seeing this as well. Previously regulation had been pushed back outside borders - for importing companies to comply with, because they couldn't control what was happening inside the country. But agree there is a big push on standards. We are seeing it in our business - albeit with some levels of discrepancies between regions. Not only harder for importation, but processors under a higher level of surveillance, more spot checks, more unannounced audits, more testing etc.

Personally that distrust of many Chinese consumers in matters of domestic food safety will take a long time to break.

When you consider we have had food scandals in NZ - from listeria in dairy & seafood products (Fonterra & Epicurean Dairy to name 2), adulteration of manuka honey, wine scandals (too many to mention) - it's only because they did not result in death which have protected NZ's reputation.

Let's hope it never does.

[Leftfield]

Well today is the day..... 11/11 armistice day for Kiwi's, and now fort the Chinese market it is also Singles Day with around $US 31 Billion sales to be racked up. Big Day for A2.

Read about it here. (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-11-10/alibaba-hits-6-billion-yuan-of-singles-day-sales-in-a-minute?srnd=premium-asia)

[winner69]

Well today is the day..... 11/11 armistice day for Kiwi's, and now fort the Chinese market it is also Singles Day with around $US 31 Billion sales to be racked up. Big Day for A2.

Read about it here. (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-11-10/alibaba-hits-6-billion-yuan-of-singles-day-sales-in-a-minute?srnd=premium-asia)

The important thing is that this year is that sales bound to be much higher than last year

[Sideshow Bob]

When you consider we have had food scandals in NZ - from listeria in dairy & seafood products (Fonterra & Epicurean Dairy to name 2), adulteration of manuka honey, wine scandals (too many to mention) - it's only because they did not result in death which have protected NZ's reputation.

Let's hope it never does.

Easy to forget about those. Indeed likely because they didn't result in any fatalities, while big news in NZ at their time, probably barely mentioned outside NZ in many key markets. Perhaps apart from Fonterra.

[tomm]

I see there are 10 of different A2 will or are going to crawling out. But A2 is A2 Milk , the original will always play the dominant of Number 1 and trusted :)
Shall and Will eventual play an arm to the worldwide :)

[Leftfield]

The important thing is that this year is that sales bound to be much higher than last year


Kkkw on HC reporting A2 sales going balistic. See here. (https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/phenomenal-sales-growth-11-11-more-info-inside.5065048/?post_id=41347918)

[winner69]

Kkkw on HC reporting A2 sales going balistic. See here. (https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/phenomenal-sales-growth-11-11-more-info-inside.5065048/?post_id=41347918)

Ballistic .....vertical ....bonanza

Love those words

[winner69]

Do A2 ever do updates as to how these singles day thingies go for them.

[Leftfield]

Do A2 ever do updates as to how these singles day thingies go for them.

Not in my memory - suspect they will hold off on any news till 19 Nov AGM (in Auck)

[winner69]

Not in my memory - suspect they will hold off on any news till 19 Nov AGM (in Auck)

Didn’t seem to mention it last year

Problem with one day sales is that they are really future sales brought forward ...heaps sold on one day and then less over subsequent days

But heck nothing like a lot of hype and excitement .....and you’ve got to be in these big events else you miss out.

[Beagle]

Pays not to get carried away with one off sales events and "calm down".
Share price is still placing the company on very challenging metrics given the much slower growth rate
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dkk9gvTmCXY

[winner69]

Pays not to get carried away with one off sales events and "calm down".
Share price is still placing the company on very challenging metrics given the much slower growth rate
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dkk9gvTmCXY

You are a worry - not content with watching the cheerleaders on CNBC you also watch Taylor Swift videos

[bull....]

the jump in the price on thursday was totally expected , often when you get a gap down in price ( wed ) the re action is none other than a gap fill day and once gap has filled ( opening fri ) the price retreats again ( fri ). lets see if this week provides a continuation now we have clear points of reference. the low of last week and the high of last week providing us with confirmation of the move or a rejection of the move

[couta1]

Pays not to get carried away with one off sales events and "calm down".
Share price is still placing the company on very challenging metrics given the much slower growth rate
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dkk9gvTmCXY Beagle your homework for the week is to become truly informed as to why the A2 sp has dropped so much is to view this video, no more speculative barking until you've done that. Video can be viewed here. https://t.co/eEFrbnFd92?amp=1

[Beagle]

You are a worry - not content with watching the cheerleaders on CNBC you also watch Taylor Swift videos

CNBC and Taylor Swift are cool. No worries...

[winner69]

CNBC and Taylor Swift are cool. No worries...

Suppose a ‘Westie’ also being a ’Swiftie’ is cool

[see weed]

:eek2::confused::ohmy::mellow:;):)

[couta1]

:eek2::confused::ohmy::mellow:;):) Not quite so up, up and away as you thought aye see weed, hope you had a look at that video I pasted above, hugely manipulated today as has been the routine, it's so blatant that the regulators are either being paid by these players or are complete numpties.

[Balance]

Didn’t seem to mention it last year

Problem with one day sales is that they are really future sales brought forward ...heaps sold on one day and then less over subsequent days

But heck nothing like a lot of hype and excitement .....and you’ve got to be in these big events else you miss out.

And heck of a lot of discounting as well?

Last year's sp action from 12 Nov 2018 to 14 Nov 2018 - from A$9.89 to A$9.36 would suggest market is not overtly enthusiastic about these single day event sales.

Margins imo - that's the story from July 2019 onwards - will sales growth offset margin squeeze to deliver profit growth.

[couta1]

The only way the sp is going to have any lasting rise is for volume buying to overcome the manipulation of the players small bot trades ,so let's hope the AGM has some good news snippets to invite buying volume and knock these scum back into the pond.

[peat]

Beagle your homework for the week is to become truly informed as to why the A2 sp has dropped so much is to view this video, no more speculative barking until you've done that. Video can be viewed here. https://t.co/eEFrbnFd92?amp=1

I only watched the first 10 minutes in which there is nothing presented (in my view) that supports the statements made.

The way I see it if an algorithm is selling for some other reason than to maximise price then someone will come in and buy them and drive the price back up again.
Just because you say it in a video doesn't make it true.

[couta1]

I only watched the first 10 minutes in which there is nothing presented (in my view) that supports the statements made.

The way I see it if an algorithm is selling for some other reason than to maximise price then someone will come in and buy them and drive the price back up again.
Just because you say it in a video doesn't make it true. You should have watched the whole thing at least once. PS-The manipulation is so blatant today on the ASX you'd have to be blind not to see it. PPS-Bots work both sides of the market simultaneously.

[Leftfield]

.... PS-The manipulation is so blatant today on the ASX you'd have to be blind not to see it. PPS-Bots work both sides of the market simultaneously.

Couta and Beagle (and others interested in the SP manipulation going on with ATM on the ASX), here's a link to a U Tube video called "The ASX's Dark Secret." (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4itmzsfZWvE&feature=player_embedded)

It's a rather dry 30 min watch, but shows how the ASX possibly gets manipulated by the shorts.

I'm not sure about the motives behind this video nor why the concerns have not been taken up with the authorities..... is it 'simply fake news?? ' Anyway, it's an interesting watch IMHO.

[couta1]

Couta and Beagle (and others interested in the SP manipulation going on with ATM on the ASX), here's a link to a U Tube video called "The ASX's Dark Secret." (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4itmzsfZWvE&feature=player_embedded)

It's a rather dry 30 min watch, but shows how the ASX gets manipulated by the shorts. Very scary IMHO. Hi Lf, that's exactly the same video I've posted above and it is very scary indeed, once I was blind but now I see. PS-Some holders over at Hotcopper have already written to the regulators re their concerns over the kind of manipulation highlighted on the video in relation to A2 and it fell on deaf ears.

[Leftfield]

Thanks Couta, I didn't know you had posted it earlier. Apologies.

(ps after further thought I edited my earlier post......see above. I'm not sure of the motives behind this video.)

[Sideshow Bob]

My Chinese isn't so good.....

https://a2nutrition.world.tmall.com/

358RMB = $80. Looks like a 10% discount, but still $40-odd in Oz.

[see weed]

Hi Lf, that's exactly the same video I've posted above and it is very scary indeed, once I was blind but now I see. PS-Some holders over at Hotcopper have already written to the regulators re their concerns over the kind of manipulation highlighted on the video in relation to A2 and it fell on deaf ears.
Thanks couta1, good video. They may of put it in the too hard basket. So how can we gain from their manipulation? Buy on the lows and sell on the highs as usual.

[tomm]

Well, I do respect how they say they are trying to gain the confident of the Chinese's citizens consumers. But so far as how we see the truth are as below.

How international students are making a small fortune by re-selling baby formula, vitamins and skincare products overseas at huge mark-ups
Chinese international students are purchasing baby formula, vitamins and skincare products and selling them for a huge mark-up overseas.
Several videos have emerged of the chaotic scenes of the baby formula war unfolding around Australia which sees Daigous wiping the products off the shelves.
Daigou is a Chinese term for someone who buys on behalf of someone else and sells at a higher price, with baby formula one of most sought-after products in China (https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/china/index.html).

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7366961/How-international-students-making-fortune-selling-baby-formula-overseas-huge-mark-ups.html

[Balance]

Well, I do respect how they say they are trying to gain the confident of the Chinese's citizens consumers. But so far as how we see the truth are as below.

How international students are making a small fortune by re-selling baby formula, vitamins and skincare products overseas at huge mark-ups
Chinese international students are purchasing baby formula, vitamins and skincare products and selling them for a huge mark-up overseas.
Several videos have emerged of the chaotic scenes of the baby formula war unfolding around Australia which sees Daigous wiping the products off the shelves.
Daigou is a Chinese term for someone who buys on behalf of someone else and sells at a higher price, with baby formula one of most sought-after products in China (https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/china/index.html).

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7366961/How-international-students-making-fortune-selling-baby-formula-overseas-huge-mark-ups.html

That's very old news, tomm, played up for impact.

Forget about "they are trying to gain the confident of the Chinese's citizens consumers" - Junlebao has shown that domestic IF players are already gaining the confidence of China consumers.

The company has gone from nowhere in 2014 to selling 50m+ cans of IF in 2018. Junlebao is now building the largest IF plant in China which will add another 75m cans in 2020. What does this tell you?

[allfromacell]

That's very old news, tomm, played up for impact.

Forget about "they are trying to gain the confident of the Chinese's citizens consumers" - Junlebao has shown that domestic IF players are already gaining the confidence of China consumers.

The company has gone from nowhere in 2014 to selling 50m+ cans of IF in 2018. Junlebao is now building the largest IF plant in China which will add another 75m cans in 2020. What does this tell you?

The A2 milk company has also gone from nowhere in 2013 and will sell around 50M cans this year, they're also got another factory coming online to increase capacity massively. What does this tell you? Chinese demand for foreign infant forumla isn't going anywhere.

[Balance]

The A2 milk company has also gone from nowhere in 2013 and will sell around 50M cans this year, they're also got another factory coming online to increase capacity massively. What does this tell you? Chinese demand for foreign infant forumla isn't going anywhere.

You have completely missed the point like tomm.

The issue being discussed is whether China domestic producers will ever regain the confidence of China consumers. Junlebao success says they are.

Nothing to do with what ATM is doing or selling.

[tomm]

You have completely missed the point like tomm.

The issue being discussed is whether China domestic producers will ever regain the confidence of China consumers. Junlebao success says they are.

Nothing to do with what ATM is doing or selling.
About the Chinese's news and websites.. all are controlled to produce what they want you to know and what they want you to read :) .
I see for my own eyes and I have Chinese friends both in middle class and upper class, they were laughing at me when I said exactly the same thing what you said about the Chinese's confidents toward their own products . :)
What I am trying to say is , they try to marketing and promote their own products but the actual numbers and quotes are just how they wanted you to see :) .
This cultures of thinking has been impacting the Chinese for decades , no argue about that, Would be a miracle when the Chinese's goverment adopt Democrat and Human Right ( not a President for LIFE , LMAO) then I will see about that , but for now , maybe,,,, later....
In the mean times... all the A2 Milk products are keep selling out !!!

[Beagle]

Good you continue to being some balance to this cult stock Balance but with all the talk that shorters, analysts and bots are responsible for the obvious downtrend over the last few months from $18, my sense is your time is wasted as most horses in this race appear to be wearing blinkers. http://www.grand-national.me.uk/416/whyhorseswearblinkers/
For mine, shorters, bots and analysts may have some effect on the share price volatility on a day to day basis but this has been considerably less volatile in recent months than it used to be so all the talk that these people are the villain's for the current funk this company is in, look like desperate straw grabbing to me.
The real story is the rising competition, reducing margins and much slower eps growth. The back story is the way Jayne is spending with reckless abandon and until we see some concrete evidence that the massive ramp up in marketing and personnel spend is going to generate sales performance ahead of the current market consensus then no amount of derisory comments about other market participants will help.

A good stock with new management I am not sure I trust that's trading on a forward PE about 5 higher than it should be in my opinion.
If I saw any value here I would buy some, but I don't, so won't.

[couta1]

More nonsense barking from the Beagle, did you watch that video right through? PS-Its less volatile because the price is being capped and controlled by the bots.

[Balance]

I am still a shareholder, Beagle - which is why I keep a close eye and watching brief on ATM.

I must say I am ready to hit the 'sell' button on the remaining shares I hold if the ASM does not deliver good news - ie. overall profit up as increased sales offset reduced margins.

Meanwhile, it is definitely noticeable that some of the posters here are searching for only positive affirmation of their views, rather than objectively assessing developments and information (positive and negative) as they flow through. Dangerous!

[Beagle]

Whatever you want to tell yourself that makes your pain more tolerable Couta1.

Agree Balance. I can't be objective once I go over a 10% portfolio allocation to any one stock in any company and its perfectly obvious that I am not the only one !!

Confirmation bias on this thread is absolutely rampant !! (hence my reference to a "blinkered approach").

[mfd]

For mine, shorters, bots and analysts may have some effect on the share price volatility on a day to day basis but this has been considerably less volatile in recent months than it used to be so all the talk that these people are the villain's for the current funk this company is in, look like desperate straw grabbing to me.
The real story is the rising competition, reducing margins and much slower eps growth. The back story is the way Jayne is spending with reckless abandon and until we see some concrete evidence that the massive ramp up in marketing and personnel spend is going to generate sales performance ahead of the current market consensus then no amount of derisory comments about other market participants will help.

The company isn't in a funk, everything is ticking along nicely. The incredible growth of the last few years obvious can't continue forever, now it'll be slower progress as you would expect. The company is making huge money in China and sitting on a big cash pile which is being put to work in growing the next big market - the US. The share price can bounce around how it likes, give it a couple of years and if the plan in America goes well I'm sure we'll be well rewarded. Let's just hope we get that far before the company is taken over.

[couta1]

The company isn't in a funk, everything is ticking along nicely. The incredible growth of the last few years obvious can't continue forever, now it'll be slower progress as you would expect. The company is making huge money in China and sitting on a big cash pile which is being put to work in growing the next big market - the US. The share price can bounce around how it likes, give it a couple of years and if the plan in America goes well I'm sure we'll be well rewarded. Let's just hope we get that far before the company is taken over. With the gross manipulation a takeover is a real possibility, that's what happened to BAL and many other ASX companies subject to these tactics but I'm certainly hoping that wont happen as this stock will eventually be worth many times it's current price in the fullness of time.

[Beagle]

The company isn't in a funk, everything is ticking along nicely. The incredible growth of the last few years obvious can't continue forever, now it'll be slower progress as you would expect. The company is making huge money in China and sitting on a big cash pile which is being put to work in growing the next big market - the US. The share price can bounce around how it likes, give it a couple of years and if the plan in America goes well I'm sure we'll be well rewarded. Let's just hope we get that far before the company is taken over.

Was $14.70 in February 2018. Was $18 a few months ago and is now in a very clear downtrend. If that's not a funk then I'm not sure what is...

[Balance]

The company isn't in a funk, everything is ticking along nicely. The incredible growth of the last few years obvious can't continue forever, now it'll be slower progress as you would expect. The company is making huge money in China and sitting on a big cash pile which is being put to work in growing the next big market - the US. The share price can bounce around how it likes, give it a couple of years and if the plan in America goes well I'm sure we'll be well rewarded. Let's just hope we get that far before the company is taken over.

ATM is a great success story but not everything is ticking along nicely - admitted as much by Jayne that the low hanging fruits and easy gains are over. I am actually very glad and pleased that Jayne acknowledged the challenges ahead and are proactively taking steps to take ATM to the next level. And it's great that ATM has the hundreds of millions of dollars in reserve to do it.

I am not one to assume however that she is going to be successful just because she acknowledges the issue - proof is going to be required and we will have our first indication at the ASM.

Having failed to meet expectations in F2019, ATM simply cannot risk not meeting expectations again. The sp will get smashed.

I am not as brave as some of you are - to see nothing but positivity everywhere!

[mfd]

Was $14.70 in February 2018. Was $18 a few months ago and is now in a very clear downtrend. If that's not a funk then I'm not sure what is...

The company cannot be blamed for the market getting over excited. A year ago the SP was 10.50. Two years ago when I bought my last package it was around 8 dollars. 5 years ago when I bought my first shares it was around 60c. We'll see what future results bring, but I have no problems with the company performance as yet.

[couta1]

It's all about where you see the sp 5 yrs from now, the answer to that question moulds and forms your outlook, when XRO went down to $12 from $45 there is no way I could even dream that it would ever get back to $45 let alone $80 but some did.

[tomm]

Was $14.70 in February 2018. Was $18 a few months ago and is now in a very clear downtrend. If that's not a funk then I'm not sure what is...
The argue is about , what is it new lowest trend? and from there how far can it go up when a positive news come out ( AGM). The lowest handle was $12.80 , and has been pushed down not by Trump nor by the economy or Hongkong.
and today it is hover at around $12.50. This stock is very volatile as the Big Boys know when to harvest.
Look at 12 months ago it was at $10.20 and with in 10 months it break it's own record $18.04 which gained approx 76% and yes it can goes down as much as it can go up as long as the products are a in a good trend and gain the global knowledges, the next lowest handle next year would be around $14.50 by then it should again already broke another record with SP at approx $19.20 IMHO.
Unless A2 Milk miss the target then we can see the handle $10.20 appear, but we will see with in a week by then :)

[Balance]

The argue is about , what is it new lowest trend? and from there how far can it go up when a positive news come out ( AGM). The lowest handle was $12.80 , and has been pushed down not by Trump nor by the economy or Hongkong.
and today it is hover at around $12.50. This stock is very volatile as the Big Boys know when to harvest.
Look at 12 months ago it was at $10.20 and with in 10 months it break it's own record $18.04 which gained approx 76% and yes it can goes down as much as it can go up as long as the products are healthy and gain the global knowledges, the next lowest handle next year would be around $14.50 by then it should again already broke another record with SP at approx $19.20 IMHO.
Unless A2 Milk miss the target then we can see the handle $10.20 appear, but we will see by then :)

Careful about keeping the faith and keeping your confirmation bias, tomm.

[couta1]

Whatever you want to tell yourself that makes your pain more tolerable Couta1.

Agree Balance. I can't be objective once I go over a 10% portfolio allocation to any one stock in any company and its perfectly obvious that I am not the only one !!

Confirmation bias on this thread is absolutely rampant !! (hence my reference to a "blinkered approach"). Yet continuing to poke a bear with a stick is unwise yet you continue to do it, over at Hotcopper you know what name you would be called as a non holder.

[Beagle]

It's all about where you see the sp 5 yrs from now, the answer to that question moulds and forms your outlook, when XRO went down to $12 from $45 there is no way I could even dream that it would ever get back to $45 let alone $80 but some did.

You keep comparing ATM and XRO as though in some way that validates your aspirations for some future astronomical price. In my opinion its a completely invalid and illogical comparison. One is a SAAS company and the other a commodity manufacturer. Once people are up and running on XRO the company can continue to supply monthly services at almost zero cost, whereas ATM's margins are scarcely 30%. I'm not going to try and value XRO or understand its valuation but neither am I silly enough to compare apples and grass...anyway i'll leave you alone till after the annual meeting because this is all getting a little too "cult like" for my liking.

[Balance]

Yet continuing to poke a bear with a stick is unwise yet you continue to do it, over at Hotcopper you know what name you would be called as a non holder.

Come on, guys - time to back off.

Let's not do a PEB on ATM, and haul insinuations and motivations.

ATM is a great stock and great success story - the issue is what price one would pay, given one's own view of where things are likely to play out.

[couta1]

Haha cult like sounds like SUM other thread I know. PS-Im not comparing XRO and A2 on a like for like basis but rather on a visionary/possibility basis.

[sb9]

Come on, guys - time to back off.

Let's not do a PEB on ATM, and haul insinuations and motivations.

ATM is a great stock and great success story - the issue is what price one would pay, given one's own view of where things are likely to play out.

Well said, everyone needs to take a chill pill and take a deep relaxed breath. Its all very well to have differing opinions and in the end company's performance will speak for itself. Just take it easy...

[Blue Skies]

Just a few words of caution.
Frequent mention here, of US market being the next big thing seems to ignore the fact that while populations of East Asian descent can have a degree of lactose intolerance as high as 90%, in populations of North European descent e.g. the U.S. the degree of lactose intolerance can be as low as 5%.
I wouldn't therefore be relying too heavily on A2 smashing the US market.

Also worth consideration, U.S. farmers are not only trusted suppliers but also a v powerful lobby group.

[mfd]

Come on, guys - time to back off.

Let's not do a PEB on ATM, and haul insinuations and motivations.

ATM is a great stock and great success story - the issue is what price one would pay, given one's own view of where things are likely to play out.

Agreed, no problem with negative opinions being posted - that's the point of the forum. I'm not going to argue the company is risk free, there are plenty of things which could go wrong, it's up to each of us to weigh the risks against the opportunities. Personally I'm happy to leave 10% of my portfolio in ATM for now while we see how it plays out.

[mfd]

Just a few words of caution.
Frequent mention here, of US market being the next big thing seems to ignore the fact that while populations of East Asian descent can have a degree of lactose intolerance as high as 90%, in populations of North European descent e.g. the U.S. the degree of lactose intolerance can be as low as 5%.
I wouldn't therefore be relying too heavily on A2 smashing the US market.

Also worth consideration, U.S. farmers are not only trusted suppliers but also a v powerful lobby group.

Are the demographics of the US that dissimilar to Australia? That's their only current significant fresh milk market, they are up to about an 11% market share now. The US is currently primarily a fresh milk play, not IF like China. Also, lactose intolerance is not relevant - A2 deals with intolerance to the A1 protein but still contains lactose.

[Oberon]

I am not one to assume however that she is going to be successful just because she acknowledges the issue - proof is going to be required and we will have our first indication at the ASM.

Having failed to meet expectations in F2019, ATM simply cannot risk not meeting expectations again. The sp will get smashed.

I am not as brave as some of you are - to see nothing but positivity everywhere!

I sincerely hope for the sake of my portfolio and sanity they don't drop the ball next Tuesday. As I've said several times over at HC, they need to knock it out of the ballpark at the AGM. If not, it's going to be increasingly challenging for the eternal optimists to hold their heads up in the face of the increased adversity the company and SP is facing. Things seem to be getting a little heated as we wait with baited breath for the AGM; right now none of us know how this is going to play out.

[Beagle]

You can lead a horse to water...nuff said.

[couta1]

You can lead a horse to water...nuff said. Nor milk.:cool:

[Ggcc]

I sincerely hope for the sake of my portfolio and sanity they don't drop the ball next Tuesday. As I've said several times over at HC, they need to knock it out of the ballpark at the AGM. If not, it's going to be increasingly challenging for the eternal optimists to hold their heads up in the face of the increased adversity the company and SP is facing. Things seem to be getting a little heated as we wait with baited breath for the AGM; right now none of us know how this is going to play out.
Just a personal thought. To my knowledge Jayne has not sold her shares yet....... Could this mean she believes that ATM is under valued? Of course we find out next week. I am still quite optimistic and hold.

[tomm]

You can lead a horse to water...nuff said.

too bad, it is not a horse , turn out it is a dragon ... :t_up:

[tomm]

Just a personal thought. To my knowledge Jayne has not sold her shares yet....... Could this means she believes that ATM is under valued? Of course we find out next week. I am still quite optimistic and hold.
It doesn't matter to her , because her wholes shares will take into account as the same price at the moments she sells just for the tax purpose.

[tomm]

This is from last year, we will see any better than this for 2019.
A2 was the sixth biggest cross-border brand sold on Alibaba during Singles' Day
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/108528157/a2-and-nz-lamb-a-winner-on-alibabas-singles-day

[sb9]

Proud to be a holder of this stock :)

A2 was the sixth biggest cross-border brand sold on Alibaba during Singles' Day.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/108528157/a2-and-nz-lamb-a-winner-on-alibabas-singles-day



Don't wanna jinx it, but finally after few frustrating weeks of sideways (mostly down) movement, there seem to some momentum picking up leading into ASM and also on 11/11 news.

[winner69]

Don't wanna jinx it, but finally after few frustrating weeks of sideways (mostly down) movement, there seem to some momentum picking up leading into ASM and also on 11/11 news.

Sshh ....wishful thinking?

[sb9]

Sshh ....wishful thinking?

Most likely, will probably know by day's end...

[tomm]

Don't wanna jinx it, but finally after few frustrating weeks of sideways (mostly down) movement, there seem to some momentum picking up leading into ASM and also on 11/11 news.
Dogs can smell and knows which food is nice and hot, some people think the food are rotten, poor those whom throwing away the nice food to the dogs, eventual they will take a break once they are full anyway :)

[tomm]

Swisse, A2, Blackmores and Bubs were among the Australia and New Zealand brands that enjoyed a very successful 24 hours as part of Alibaba Group’s 2019 11.11 Global Shopping Festival.

https://insidefmcg.com.au/2019/11/12/australian-health-and-wellness-brands-prove-popular-at-alibabas-11-11-festival/