ATM - A2 Milk Corporation Limited

[Oberon]

Just a personal thought. To my knowledge Jayne has not sold her shares yet....... Could this means she believes that ATM is under valued? Of course we find out next week. I am still quite optimistic and hold.

No, she hasn't sold. She did give the market advanced warning that she intended to. However, given what happened last time (half a billion dollars wiped off of market value) and the sensitivity the SP has to anything negative, coupled with where it's presently sitting... would really feel like a big middle finger to stakeholders.


Don't wanna jinx it, but finally after few frustrating weeks of sideways (mostly down) movement, there seem to some momentum picking up leading into ASM and also on 11/11 news.

I've grown pretty weary of green days for A2; they're invariably followed by a red day. I know we've got the AGM and some have predicted a solid run up, but after watching every solid start get gutted by the end of the week, I need at least one or two more days of continued upward momentum to be convinced. Here's hoping! It just dived 14c on the ASX after close here but is spiking back up.

[see weed]

Was $14.70 in February 2018. Was $18 a few months ago and is now in a very clear downtrend. If that's not a funk then I'm not sure what is...
That's true. We have been in downtrend for about 3 months. Not to forget we have been in an uptrend for the last 3 years:).....The lows...Nov16=$2.50s...Nov17=$7.50s...Nov18=$10s... Nov19=the low for this month was $12.19c. Just have to wait until 19th for latest results.

[Beagle]

That's true. We have been in downtrend for about 3 months. Not to forget we have been in an uptrend for the last 3 years:).....The lows...Nov16=$2.50s...Nov17=$7.50s...Nov18=$10s... Nov19=the low for this month was $12.19c. Just have to wait until 19th for latest results.

Fair enough mate. Good luck to holders.

[couta1]

Fair enough mate. Good luck to holders. Truce time on here, friendships are far more valuable than a bit of spilt milk even if it is A2.

[Beagle]

Truce time on here, friendships are far more valuable than a bit of spilt milk even if it is A2.

Quite right mate :)

[tomm]

Quite right mate :)
with all respect.

[carrom74]

https://www.afr.com/world/asia/australian-brands-woo-shoppers-at-chinas-singles-day-sales-20181112-h17sxb

Finally some media interaction from the CEO pertaining to the singles day... quite encouraging... four more trading days... then hopefully some good news... GLAH

[cymonger]

Message removed

[RTM]

Spoke to some friends close to the company today, who told me everyone who works there is buying on the advice of management. There's not a whole lot of people working for this company, so I took this as a very good sign. There are no certainties in this world, but if I had 180 people who counted on me to feed their families and pay their mortgages, I'd want to be pretty certain before I told them how to invest their money. I take this as a very good sign, (wish I would have listened to the same person, who also predicted the drop).

Jeeze....if this is correct, not sure management will appreciate the post !

[BlackPeter]

Spoke to some friends close to the company today, who told me everyone who works there is buying on the advice of management. There's not a whole lot of people working for this company, so I took this as a very good sign. There are no certainties in this world, but if I had 180 people who counted on me to feed their families and pay their mortgages, I'd want to be pretty certain before I told them how to invest their money. I take this as a very good sign, (wish I would have listened to the same person, who also predicted the drop).

Hmm ... not quite sure about this story. Are you saying that A2 management advises their staff to buy ATM shares?

I guess apart from sounding incredibly imprudent for a manager to make recommendations to staff about how to invest their personal money (and breaching the act on giving financial advise ...) ... I am wondering whether this could be seen as a breach of the rules against insider trading. If the story is true, than management seems to know something the markets don't know yet - right?

[winner69]

Hmm ... not quite sure about this story. Are you saying that A2 management advises their staff to buy ATM shares?

I guess apart from sounding incredibly imprudent for a manager to make recommendations to staff about how to invest their personal money (and breaching the act on giving financial advise ...) ... I am wondering whether this could be seen as a breach of the rules against insider trading. If the story is true, than management seems to know something the markets don't know yet - right?

Maybe just a employee share plan which many company’s offer their employees

Often employees encouraged to join - ownership makes employees work harder

[Ggcc]

Hmm ... not quite sure about this story. Are you saying that A2 management advises their staff to buy ATM shares?

I guess apart from sounding incredibly imprudent for a manager to make recommendations to staff about how to invest their personal money (and breaching the act on giving financial advise ...) ... I am wondering whether this could be seen as a breach of the rules against insider trading. If the story is true, than management seems to know something the markets don't know yet - right?
You have to understand this happens all the time in industries. I was told to invest heavily in XRO when the share was around $2. It was the advice from a customer of mine, who's daughter was relatively high up in the company. Had I only followed the advice.

I do admit it is probably an employee share plan for ATM

[BlackPeter]

You have to understand this happens all the time in industries. I was told to invest heavily in XRO when the share was around $2. It was the advice from a customer of mine, who's daughter was relatively high up in the company. Had I only followed the advice.

I do admit it is probably an employee share plan for ATM

Mhm ... from memory - MPG introduced an employee share plan at a SP of around $2. Now they are at 35 cents or so.

One of my friends worked for a high tech startup with an amazing share plan ... until they did bite the dust ...

Of course ... ATM is neither MPG nor a high tech start up ... but if we are talking here employee share plans (does ATM have one?), than I would not draw any conclusions from that related to the future of the company - neither good nor bad. The purpose of employee share plans is really just to link employees interests closer to the share holders interest, not to get employees to make sensible investment decisions.

Discl: still holding (a small parcel) ...

[Leftfield]

ATM seems to have done very well in the recent Singles Day sale according to many reports posted on HC.

This report (https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/a2-turnover-increased-2-5-times-on-11-11.5069577/page-4?post_id=41388994) states A2 sales up 250%.

Another report (https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/11-11-a2-ranked-no-2.5069291/?post_id=41384093) says A2's market share/sales increased from 6th ranked IF brand LY to second ranked this year.

All speculative until confirmed by ATM in a market update, but I suspect the SP has bottomed out on this news, and will slowly increase from here.

I'm sure Beagle will say that while sales are up we need to see how the increased marketing spend is effecting profitability. He would be right, but I'm quietly confident.

[dompf]

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/farming/117380386/the-biggest-milk-company-in-the-us-declares-bankruptcy

Unsure relevancy; but milk sales suffered over last couple of decades - a2 has a definitive point of difference, maybe gives a2 a crack in the armour for their US campaign

[BlackPeter]

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/farming/117380386/the-biggest-milk-company-in-the-us-declares-bankruptcy

Unsure relevancy; but milk sales suffered over last couple of decades - a2 has a definitive point of difference, maybe gives a2 a crack in the armour for their US campaign

Hey - here would be a pristine opportunity for Fonterra to loose more money. Why should they pour it all into China?

[tomm]

If we see at least a $12.80 handle today , should be a bright way to turn.

[winner69]

OLosing Susan a bit of a blow

She’s made A2 what is today

Deserved the zillions she’s made over the years from her shares

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/ATM/344233/311747.pdf

[mfd]

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/farming/117380386/the-biggest-milk-company-in-the-us-declares-bankruptcy

Unsure relevancy; but milk sales suffered over last couple of decades - a2 has a definitive point of difference, maybe gives a2 a crack in the armour for their US campaign

One link is Dean Foods tried to take over ATM a few years ago, seeing the opportunity to start growing the milk market again with A2 product presumably. Their loss is our gain.

[t.rexjr]

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/farming/117380386/the-biggest-milk-company-in-the-us-declares-bankruptcy

Unsure relevancy; but milk sales suffered over last couple of decades - a2 has a definitive point of difference, maybe gives a2 a crack in the armour for their US campaign

Agree, The marketing team should be all over this.

[tomm]

VERY INTERESTING, MAY ANSWER TO ALL THE QUESTIONS.

Of the ten most shorted stocks, only one - A2 Milk (A2M, $11.76) – substantially lost value in the month of August. Shares in the unloved Dominos Pizza (DMP, $51.26),JB Hi-Fi ($36.15) and REA Group (REA,$101) increased by 13 per cent, 12 per cent and 7.5 per cent respectively after these companies released better than expected numbers.

The long and short of it is that the strident activist campaigns do tend to hit the valuation of the target company, but not always and not forever.
With most of the stocks at least partly recovering from short-selling attacks, the rewards are there for bold investors willing to punt that the market has overreacted.

https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/the-new-criterion-how-to-benefit-from-short-selling

[bull....]

thx to the rbnz our short is still in play

[couta1]

thx to the rbnz our short is still in play You short, who would have guessed. Lol

[Blue Skies]

thx to the rbnz our short is still in play

Just looking up shorts on ASX for first time, looks to me v heavily shorted ( .46). Is this correct?
Hmm..just when was almost almost tempted to buy a few.

[Leftfield]

Just looking up shorts on ASX for first time, looks to me v heavily shorted ( .46). Is this correct?
Hmm..just when was almost almost tempted to buy a few.

FWIW Shorts actually retreating from a peak of 7.59% to 6.99% as at 7 Nov

See it here. (https://www.shortman.com.au/stock?q=a2m) JMHO. DYOR.

[Blue Skies]

FWIW Shorts actually retreating from a peak of 7.59% to 6.99% as at 7 Nov

See it here. (https://www.shortman.com.au/stock?q=a2m) JMHO. DYOR.


Thanks LF, much appreciated, that's a much better site than one I was looking at.

[Leftfield]

ATM is confirming it's 11/11 sales were 250% higher than last year according to an article in AFR quoted here. (https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/11-11-a2-ranked-no-2.5069291/page-55?post_id=41407537)

[winner69]

ATM is confirming it's 11/11 sales were 250% higher than last year according to an article in AFR quoted here. (https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/11-11-a2-ranked-no-2.5069291/page-55?post_id=41407537)

Jeez - two and a half times last year is amazing

How many zillions is that?

Ww

[Balance]

FWIW Shorts actually retreating from a peak of 7.59% to 6.99% as at 7 Nov

See it here. (https://www.shortman.com.au/stock?q=a2m) JMHO. DYOR.

Does suggest that Citi's note on Junlebao on 5 Nov and the resulting sp was used by shorters to cover/buy stock cheaper.

[bull....]

ATM is confirming it's 11/11 sales were 250% higher than last year according to an article in AFR quoted here. (https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/11-11-a2-ranked-no-2.5069291/page-55?post_id=41407537)

was it 250% on 10 cans or 250% on 1000000 cans big difference

[couta1]

was it 250% on 10 cans or 250% on 1000000 cans big difference Talk about clutching at straws, you sound like a desperate shorter. PS-The next short incineration is coming and it will be glorious to watch as always.

[Leftfield]

was it 250% on 10 cans or 250% on 1000000 cans big difference

More likely it was revenue $$$$$$$ !! :t_up:

[Balance]

was it 250% on 10 cans or 250% on 1000000 cans big difference

It's actually a good question - does anyone know?

I think it will have to be in the ball park of $10m last year, and increase to $25m this year?

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12284691

If an outfit like Ecostore can sell $2.83m this year, then ATM must be at least 10 times that.

[Sideshow Bob]

It's actually a good question - does anyone know?

I think it will have to be in the ball park of $10m last year, and increase to $25m this year?

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12284691

If an outfit like Ecostore can sell $2.83m this year, then ATM must be at least 10 times that.

Last FY they turned over $405m in China (presume excluding daigou), so would be interesting to see what effect or portion 11/11 sales were of this.

Hopefully there will be a trading update around the AGM. Last year, this included 4 month trading figures, and also commentary on 11/11 sales (last year sales tripled and A2 Platinum was ranked 2nd brand across 4 major platforms).

Share price could do with some good news.....hopefully next Tuesday.

[RGR367]

"By category, infant formula was the most popular category from New Zealand......" https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/farming/117410748/a2-among-top-brands-on-alibabas-singles-day But duh, no figures to back it up.

[see weed]

was it 250% on 10 cans or 250% on 1000000 cans big difference
So what you are saying is 10 cans last year is now 35 cans this year or 1,000,000 cans last year is now 3,500,000 cans this year. So how many cans did they sell in that 24hr 11/11? And at what price....$80 per can?

[Balance]

"By category, infant formula was the most popular category from New Zealand......" https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/farming/117410748/a2-among-top-brands-on-alibabas-singles-day But duh, no figures to back it up.

Irrespective of numbers, as ATM is unlikely to release due to commercial sensitivity(?), the critical point is that ATM's A2 IF is unquestionably the clear leader when it comes to IF brand awareness in China.

That is some serious achievement and let's hope that ATM can continue to lever off that in the years ahead.

The company needs to come out strongly and unequivocally at the ASM that revenue growth is offsetting margin reduction and is increasing profits and cash flow.

[Balance]

So what you are saying is 10 cans last year is now 35 cans this year or 1,000,000 cans last year is now 3,500,000 cans this year. So how many cans did they sell in that 24hr 11/11? And at what price....$80 per can?

Those are the questions we are all seeking answers to.

ATM would be doing us all a huge favor by giving some guidance.

[couta1]

Irrespective of numbers, as ATM is unlikely to release due to commercial sensitivity(?), the critical point is that ATM's A2 IF is unquestionably the clear leader when it comes to IF brand awareness in China.

That is some serious achievement and let's hope that ATM can continue to lever off that in the years ahead.

The company needs to come out strongly and unequivocally at the ASM that revenue growth is offsetting margin reduction and is increasing profits and cash flow. Jayne needs to choose her words carefully and not be too conservative in her AGM presentation otherwise the game players will continue to trash the sp.

[Ggcc]

Jayne needs to choose her words carefully and not be too conservative in her AGM presentation otherwise the game players will continue to trash the sp.
I don't think she should choose her words carefully, she just needs to tell it how it is. Regardless what the share price is today she is aiming for the share price to be much higher in 5 years time. Rod Drury mentioned that those who hold XRO longterm will truly benefit and look at them now (overpriced for me, but then I can't spit sour grapes forever). If Jayne mentions something similar to what Rod mentioned, we will see ATM become a $20-25-30 dollar share, but we don't know when.

[couta1]

I don't think she should choose her words carefully, she just needs to tell it how it is. Regardless what the share price is today she is aiming for the share price to be much higher in 5 years time. Rod Drury mentioned that those who hold XRO longterm will truly benefit and look at them now (overpriced for me, but then I can't spit sour grapes forever). If Jayne mentions something similar to what Rod mentioned, we will see ATM become a $20-25-30 dollar share, but we don't know when. Yes agree she should tell it how it is and not water anything down to play it safe, when your in the middle of a "Game of Thrones" you dont want to give your enemies any more ammo unnecessarily.

[couta1]

Lol check out the bot trading on the NZX this morning.

[Leftfield]

Lol check out the bot trading on the NZX this morning.

It's a game of bluff..... who is going to blink first.

[t.rexjr]

Yes agree she should tell it how it is and not water anything down to play it safe, when your in the middle of a "Game of Thrones" you dont want to give your enemies any more ammo unnecessarily.

Well this AGM marks her first full year of being chief. The first AGM that she can show her influence. If that were me I'd be looking to drop some bombs and make sure everyone knows just how awesome I am...

[bull....]

Well this AGM marks her first full year of being chief. The first AGM that she can show her influence. If that were me I'd be looking to drop some bombs and make sure everyone knows just how awesome I am...

you can drop some f ... bombs there too if it doesnt go well

[see weed]

There she blows $12 aussi...for how long?

[t.rexjr]

you can drop some f ... bombs there too if it doesnt go well

Come now Bull. I'd rate the chances of it not going well as an absolute ZERO. The Market is no longer pricing in 'under promise, over deliver'. It'll be difficult to feign surprise when everything is as expected. You keep that short on though. I dare ya :-)

[bull....]

Come now Bull. I'd rate the chances of it not going well as an absolute ZERO. The Market is no longer pricing in 'under promise, over deliver'. It'll be difficult to feign surprise when everything is as expected. You keep that short on though. I dare ya :-)

must be good eh look at the price go. sad for me as im knocked out till another day

[Ggcc]

Panic buying and covering of shorts is happening I feel, before the results next week.

[Leftfield]

Panic buying and covering of shorts is happening I feel, before the results next week.

You're spot on. Lot's of pressure on shorts to close out Friday. Holders sit tight and enjoy.

[Balance]

There she blows $12 aussi...for how long?

Are we seeing a pattern in ATM's sp again - up in the afternoon and then, gets sold down towards the close?

Couta must be on to this trading opportunity?

[couta1]

Are we seeing a pattern in ATM's sp again - up in the afternoon and then, gets sold down towards the close?

Couta must be on to this trading opportunity? Not trading for profit but basically shorting my own shares to get my avg price down so now at $13.09 down from $17.31 a few months ago which is a lot on a big holding, got a few thousand more shares as well.

[Oberon]

Smart. Better than just watching the SP tumble week after week - as my strategy has been.

[Balance]

So Macquarie has mintained its Outperform recommendation but trimmed valuation ever so slightly from $16.10 to $15.70, ahead of Tuesday's ASM.

Meanwhile, shorts look like they are also covering ahead of the ASM - shorts made up 61% to 77% of A2M trades so far this week (Mon - Tues).

Tuesday is shaping up to be a fascinating day to be!

[silu]

So Macquarie has mintained its Outperform recommendation but trimmed valuation ever so slightly from $16.10 to $15.70, ahead of Tuesday's ASM.

Meanwhile, shorts look like they are also covering ahead of the ASM - shorts made up 61% to 77% of A2M trades so far this week (Mon - Tues).

Tuesday is shaping up to be a fascinating day to be!

Next week someone is going to feel vindicated.

[tomm]

Next week someone is going to feel vindicated.
It is just facts , They SOLD OUT on 11/11 ,I am wondering if they didn't SOLD OUT all their products how far can the SELLS be ?? to prove that the loyal bases customer's are very keen to look for and purchase the products as long as they can afford to buy. Demanding and Demanding from the Chinese for quality and support the sciences behind it. They don't worry about how others say: it is not truth , the people feels, know and for A2 MILK proven to themselves :)
A2 Milk ATM.NZ has proven so beside it has a huge cash advance. Just only that keeps the business throttling forward.

[winner69]

It is just facts , They SOLD OUT on 11/11 ,I am wondering if they didn't SOLD OUT all their products how far can the SELLS be ?? to prove that the loyal bases customer's are very keen to look for and purchase the products as long as they can afford to buy. Demanding and Demanding from the Chinese for quality and support the sciences behind it. They don't worry about how others say: it is not truth , the people feels, know and for A2 MILK proven to themselves :)
A2 Milk ATM.NZ has proven so beside it has a huge cash advance. Just only that keeps the business throttling forward.

SOLD OUT

an opportunity to sell even more wasted

[Balance]

SOLD OUT

an opportunity to sell even more wasted

There goes the margins .... !!!!

[allfromacell]

I recall last year they also sold out but management said at the AGM they intentionally held back stock, looks like this year they've offered a lot more but still holding back. Hopefully lots of repeat customers gained and more to come with increased word of mouth and marketing spend. Everything continues to look on track and no signs of slowing.

[couta1]

SOLD OUT

an opportunity to sell even more wasted Not really it's just good Inventory management, nothing stopping the punters from buying it from elsewhere.

[Sideshow Bob]

SOLD OUT

an opportunity to sell even more wasted

Jeez, wasn't that long ago looking at the annual report that punters on here complaining about how much inventory they had!

Can't win.

[winner69]

Jeez, wasn't that long ago looking at the annual report that punters on here complaining about how much inventory they had!

Can't win.

Maybe inventory in wrong place

[see weed]

It's actually a good question - does anyone know?

I think it will have to be in the ball park of $10m last year, and increase to $25m this year?

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12284691

If an outfit like Ecostore can sell $2.83m this year, then ATM must be at least 10 times that.
Correct me if I'm wrong...250% increase on 10m would be 10m + 25m= 35m.

[allfromacell]

Correct me if I'm wrong...250% increase on 10m would be 10m + 25m= 35m.

Hi See Weed, a 100% increase is double so 2.5 x last years number is actually only 150% increase not 250%.

Makes one pretty impressed they were able to grow revenue of fresh milk in the US by over 200% in the second half eh.

[Blue Skies]

Hi See Weed, a 100% increase is double so 2.5 x last years number is actually only 150% increase not 250%.

Makes one pretty impressed they were able to grow revenue of fresh milk in the US by over 200% in the second half eh.


At first glance they may look the same, but 'selling 2.5 X as much as last year' is not the same thing as 'a 250% increase on last years sales'.
Both you & see weed are correct.
But, which way did A2 describe this years sales?

[winner69]

At first glance they may look the same, but 'selling 2.5 X as much as last year' is not the same thing as 'a 250% increase on last years sales'.
Both you & see weed are correct.
But, which way did A2 describe this years sales?

Supposedly 2.5 times

[see weed]

Hi See Weed, a 100% increase is double so 2.5 x last years number is actually only 150% increase not 250%.

Makes one pretty impressed they were able to grow revenue of fresh milk in the US by over 200% in the second half eh.
So does that mean a 100% increase on 10m I would end up with 20m or 200% increase on 10m I would end up with 30m....or a 250% on 10m I would end up with 35m? Correct me if I'm wrong.

[see weed]

So does that mean a 100% increase on 10m I would end up with 20m or 200% increase on 10m I would end up with 30m....or a 250% on 10m I would end up with 35m? Correct me if I'm wrong.
The 250% increase was the increase from last years 11/11 singles day sale?

[Sideshow Bob]

It must be Friday arvo.....I'm just going to wait for the update Tuesday.

Can then argue mathematical methodology in how much it has gone up by. :t_up:

[Bubbleboy]

Hi all, first time poster, long time reader. Thought I'd add my two cents into the pot by saying Forsyth Barr rate ATM outperform, and Milford Asset Management - Morningstar rated best growth fund for the last 10 years - added to their position in September.
1084210843

[Lewylewylewy]

Im confused. Should i buy more because Forsyth thinks it's good, or sell because Morningstar thinks it's good?

[Ggcc]

Im confused. Should i buy more because Forsyth thinks it's good, or sell because Morningstar thinks it's good?
Haha I understand your confusion. I think all analysts are chasing their tails and altering their SP value, because the market is reacting in a different way to what the value should be.

[tomm]

Haha I understand your confusion. I think all analysts are chasing their tails and altering their SP value, because the market is reacting in a different way to what the value should be.
The stock's value has it own value but there are institutions and shorters trying to squeeze the cash cow, sometimes the cow (stock) becomes skinnier due to working too hard, and if it can live through all of that then the cow's future due to working and being trained that hard it shall becomes a giant A2 MILK ATM.NZ eventual :)

[Blue Skies]

Cow's getting skinnier again. Not what I expected this close to next Tuesday though seems to fit the usual afternoon pattern. Someone feed it please.

[Balance]

Cow's getting skinnier again. Not what I expected this close to next Tuesday though seems to fit the usual afternoon pattern. Someone feed it please.

Well, Tuesday will definitely result in the stock flying or crashing - no in between imo.

So put on your seat belts and brace for the ride!

[Ggcc]

Well, Tuesday will definitely result in the stock flying or crashing - no in between imo.

So put on your seat belts and brace for the ride!
Even if it flies due to positive news, it will rise gradually I feel and not abruptly. 50 cents per day maybe up if news is good. On the other hand if news is not positive it should be a big drop. Only my thoughts and DYOR

[couta1]

Even if it flies due to positive news, it will rise gradually I feel and not abruptly. 50 cents per day maybe up if news is good. On the other hand if news is not positive it should be a big drop. Only my thoughts and DYOR A lot of negativity is already priced in, to get a big drop it will need to be a shocker and I cant see that happening.

[allfromacell]

................................

[allfromacell]

So A2M Wee-chat has reported they sold over 1M cans on 11/11 meaning last year they would've sold around 400K. Not taking into account regular milk powder and smart nutrition.
10846

[tomm]

Expect the Unexpected.

[Leftfield]

Expect the Unexpected.

Over 1 mill cans of A2 more this year than last year's 11/11. Translate that to revenue and it looks like an increase of $20 mill ..........
(see it here.) (https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/11-11-a2-ranked-no-2.5069291/page-83?post_id=41458129)

[Baa_Baa]

Over 1 mill cans of A2 more this year than last year's 11/11. Translate that to revenue and it looks like an increase of $20 mill ..........
(see it here.) (https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/11-11-a2-ranked-no-2.5069291/page-83?post_id=41458129)

More like NZ$ 41.8 million (https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/11-11-a2-ranked-no-2.5069291/page-91?post_id=41460223).

[winner69]

More like NZ$ 41.8 million (https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/11-11-a2-ranked-no-2.5069291/page-91?post_id=41460223).

Did they sell 1,000,000 cans or AN EXTRA 1,000,000 cans (the 2.5 times more)

Whatever it’s like exciting as eh

[Leftfield]

Yeah......agree it's exciting and whatever the $, we have still got to deduct the Beagle's lovely marketing spend.

Be patient, all will be revealed soon.

[winner69]

Yeah......agree it's exciting and whatever the $, we have still got to deduct the Beagle's lovely marketing spend.

Be patient, all will be revealed soon.

It’ll prove Beagle’s lovely marketing spend drives huge increase in sales

[Beagle]

Mean Coutta muzzled me and said I was barking too much...sad...https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xqDwUtqmdRE
She's cruel and fully deserves to get bitten, so does Coutts but I'd better not tell him that :lol:

[Leftfield]

...Coutta muzzled me and said I was barking too much...sad..

Couta is a very wise person.

[Baa_Baa]

Did they sell 1,000,000 cans or AN EXTRA 1,000,000 cans (the 2.5 times more)

Whatever it’s like exciting as eh

Hard to tell, but even more exciting is $41.8m (11/11 one-day sales) / $1980m (projected revenue) is only 2.1% of annual revenue! https://www.marketscreener.com/A2-MILK-COMPANY-LTD-11384022/?type_recherche=rapide&mots=a2%20milk

Their fancy new data driven marketing might surprise on the upside for revenue and put to bed all the worry warts who sold their shares when the company missed consensus earnings by a smidge. Talk about an SP over reaction! But good for us who can scalp a few more while price is depressed.

[tomm]

10847
https://www.marketscreener.com/A2-MILK-COMPANY-LTD-11384022/consensus/

The proven data for you.

[tomm]

10847
https://www.marketscreener.com/A2-MILK-COMPANY-LTD-11384022/consensus/

The proven data for you.

IT'S A BUY.!!!

[Maverick]

My view of ATM, is that I see it as a sunset company.
Let me explain my thinking with an example..... Back in mid 1970’s, “black/white“and “colour” TV sets available were about 50/50.(swap out here A1/A2). If LV Martin’s only point of difference was they sold TVs which were colour then we can guess how that would have ultimately worked out.


Fast forward to now...If A2milk continues to be more desirable than A1, then in a few years every dairy farmer will convert his herd for all A2. We are already seeing ever increasing numbers of participants. Then the commodity of milk will become bog standard A2. No premiums, no point of difference. No point in even keeping the brand A2…. just like promoting your plasma TV on trademe because it's a “colour”.


Ok Boomers… what am I missing here?

[carrom74]

My view of ATM, is that I see it as a sunset company.
Let me explain my thinking with an example..... Back in mid 1970’s, “black/white“and “colour” TV sets available were about 50/50.(swap out here A1/A2). If LV Martin’s only point of difference was they sold TVs which were colour then we can guess how that would have ultimately worked out.


Fast forward to now...If A2milk continues to be more desirable than A1, then in a few years every dairy farmer will convert his herd for all A2. We are already seeing ever increasing numbers of participants. Then the commodity of milk will become bog standard A2. No premiums, no point of difference. No point in even keeping the brand A2…. just like promoting your plasma TV on trademe because it's a “colour”.


Ok Boomers… what am I missing here?
Though I am not a boomer this article published last year will give us insights on how difficult changing herds are and the reasons why Fonterra chose to go with A2
https://www.interest.co.nz/rural-news/92603/keith-woodford-explains-process-converting-dairy-herds-a2-one-will%C2%A0take

[couta1]

My view of ATM, is that I see it as a sunset company.
Let me explain my thinking with an example..... Back in mid 1970’s, “black/white“and “colour” TV sets available were about 50/50.(swap out here A1/A2). If LV Martin’s only point of difference was they sold TVs which were colour then we can guess how that would have ultimately worked out.


Fast forward to now...If A2milk continues to be more desirable than A1, then in a few years every dairy farmer will convert his herd for all A2. We are already seeing ever increasing numbers of participants. Then the commodity of milk will become bog standard A2. No premiums, no point of difference. No point in even keeping the brand A2…. just like promoting your plasma TV on trademe because it's a “colour”.


Ok Boomers… what am I missing here? A2 is the future of milk, eventually all mainstream milk will be A2 but not for quite a while yet so therefore ATM is only in its infancy as the competitors to date have had no impact on the growth of the company. Once A2 becomes the mainstream choice the market will be massive and ATM will become a boring giant of a company with a sp many times it's current one and paying a nice stable dividend to boot unless it becomes a takeover target in the meantime.

[allfromacell]

Also in terms of infant forumla, where most of this companies profits are currently made the average Chinese mother doesn't understand what A2 even means other than it's just a brand from Australia / NZ. This is why even the largest food conglomerate in the world Nestle has tried to copy us and made no material impact on our momentum, there are now several copycat brands around yet we missed out on being the number 1 sold brand on 11/11 by an inch.

Sure the point of different over time will disappear but there is plenty of time left to grow into a large dairy company ourselves, I believe focus on EPS growth and margins in the meantime is short sited as a2 has its sites set on becoming a monster.

[Leftfield]

My view of ATM, is that I see it as a sunset company.

Sorry Maverick I disagree for a host of reasons.

1.) Over the last 5 years ATM's share price has increased 2,600%. At the same time the NZX 50 has increased roughly 100% (25% pa). Sure A2 might not grow so fast in the future, but A2 is likely to outperform NZX50 for a long time yet. This is hardly the behaviour of a dying industry.

2.) While there may be signs that fresh milk is a sunset industry (in some countries) as some consumers switch from dairy milk substitutes to such products (say) as almond milk etc.... what you ignore at your peril is that fresh A2 milk is the fastest growing segment within the huge multi billion $ existing fresh milk industry.

3.) A2 is not only just about fresh milk. Is A2 dairy based IF formula also a sunset industry? Are A2 dairy based yoghurts, cream, ice-cream, chocolate etc also sunset industries??

4.) And then there are a host of A2 diary products and market segments that haven't even been invented or explored yet.... there are exponential future potential growth markets for A2 yet to explore.

Interesting week ahead for A2 holders. I'm away a few months and won't be posting. Good luck holders.

[Balance]

Also in terms of infant forumla, where most of this companies profits are currently made the average Chinese mother doesn't understand what A2 even means other than it's just a brand from Australia / NZ.



Gee!

And you are invested in ATM? :eek2:

[Maverick]

Thanks Carrom for that link. What I get from that article is converting a herd is “profitably neutral “ but farmers should at least start using the A2 insemination from now on and eventually A2 will be the standard and A1 will possibly be at a discount.
Couta, I understand what you are saying is that A2 ltd is enjoying huge growth and potential growth as it has worked itself to be “johnny on the spot” before the inevitable mainstreaming of the product, albeit some time away.
Left field, thanks for your reply too but I didn't call the industry a sunset one ,so we at least agree there. I called the ATM company ,a sunset company the way I see it.


My 2 main concerns I have as a potential investor:
Firstly, At some point the growing( although slowly from the link above) herd conversions will erode the current A2 premium margins with increasing supply. So it's a timing thing of optimising when to sell up as it naturally transforms from an intellectual property type rating to a seller of a commodity type rating. As I, and probably most here, have no superior global industry knowledge or contacts to get a heads up on when to exit the door first. It is then a blind and nervous position to be in with a lot of finger crossing. Perhaps the optimal time has even already passed?


Secondly, if A2 milk does become normalised to the global market, then surely the A2ltd “brand” (and that's all this company is as I understand it) becomes meaningless as other competitors offer A2 as a standard commodity to at cut throat margins.Therefore A2ltd brand has become irrelevant and its IP worth no more than the brand “NZ”.


I can get why you have a truckload of HLG Couta but ATM seems an outlier to me. It would just cause me sleepless nights.

[mfd]

It will be a real tragedy if ATM is re-rated from it's current PE (~33 not accounting for the pile of cash and Synlait shares) down to those of a boring company like Nestle (PE ratio 31).

[tomm]

Also in terms of infant forumla, where most of this companies profits are currently made the average Chinese mother doesn't understand what A2 even means other than it's just a brand from Australia / NZ. This is why even the largest food conglomerate in the world Nestle has tried to copy us and made no material impact on our momentum, there are now several copycat brands around yet we missed out on being the number 1 sold brand on 11/11 by an inch.

Sure the point of different over time will disappear but there is plenty of time left to grow into a large dairy company ourselves, I believe focus on EPS growth and margins in the meantime is short sited as a2 has its sites set on becoming a monster.

Totally agree as a few of our folk are worry that some A2 copy cats will harm A2MILK ATM.NZ . I was one of them , then I realised that : there is no Karicare A2 or Aptamil A2 or Nestle A2 was even making any top 10 of 1 day sale 11/11,
and infact A2 was almost taking the number 1 spot Aptamil , mean the time A1A2 BECOMES HISTORY is near!

[winner69]

I love it when things not going ‘quite right’ with the A2 share price and doubt about how great A2 are creeps in and many seek self reassurance.

I just sit back and relax and buy some more as A2 share price will be 30 bucks one day

[Beagle]

It will be a real tragedy if ATM is re-rated from it's current PE (~33 not accounting for the pile of cash and Synlait shares) down to those of a boring company like Nestle (PE ratio 31).

Market is always forward looking and forward PE's is 23.6 https://www.marketscreener.com/NESTLE-S-A-9365334/financials/
and Danone's is 18.0 https://www.marketscreener.com/DANONE-4634/?type_recherche=rapide&mots=Danone
ATM is currently 28.8 https://www.marketscreener.com/A2-MILK-COMPANY-LTD-11384022/?type_recherche=rapide&mots=ATM

[couta1]

Market is always forward looking and forward PE's is 23.6 https://www.marketscreener.com/NESTLE-S-A-9365334/financials/
and Danone's is 18.0 https://www.marketscreener.com/DANONE-4634/?type_recherche=rapide&mots=Danone
ATM is currently 28.8 https://www.marketscreener.com/A2-MILK-COMPANY-LTD-11384022/?type_recherche=rapide&mots=ATM Lol I'm really looking forward to when we are on a PE of 18 and a sp of around $130NZ like Danone.

[silu]

Lol I'm really looking forward to when we are on a PE of 18 and a sp of around $130NZ like Danone.

Is that the day when we see your appearance on the NBR Rich List? ;)

[couta1]

Is that the day when we see your appearance on the NBR Rich List? ;) Haha I doubt it knowing some of the names on that list, I wonder who is the poorest on the list and what their net worth is?

[Beagle]

Lol I'm really looking forward to when we are on a PE of 18 and a sp of around $130NZ like Danone.

You might have to wait just a "little" while mate. Danone is a 100 year old company. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Danone
I go back to my kennel now, I only posted to correct the significant inaccuracy in the PE quoted by another poster.

[couta1]

You might have to wait just a "little" while mate. Danone is a 100 year old company. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Danone I see Danone have a stake in Synlait indirectly through their 5% ownership of Bright Dairy.

[mfd]

Market is always forward looking and forward PE's is 23.6 https://www.marketscreener.com/NESTLE-S-A-9365334/financials/
and Danone's is 18.0 https://www.marketscreener.com/DANONE-4634/?type_recherche=rapide&mots=Danone
ATM is currently 28.8 https://www.marketscreener.com/A2-MILK-COMPANY-LTD-11384022/?type_recherche=rapide&mots=ATM

My source has rather different stats for nestle than yours - current PE ratio on 33 according to Bloomberg Vs your link's 24.5.

https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/NESN:SW

Sadly I don't have time to dig into the discrepancy just now, suffice to say the figure of 33 seems to be widely reported

[Beagle]

Maybe they are quoting last year's historic PE ?

[winner69]

Just agreeing with myself

[winner69]

Comparing PEs for A2 and Nestles is stupid and a meaningless exercise
Completely different business

One sells milk ...the other sells things from milk to lollies and chocolates to drinks to pet food (andother thinfs)

Once A2 into pet food maybe a reasonable exercise

[mfd]

Maybe they are quoting last year's historic PE ?

I expect so, but your link also reports a historic pe of 24.5, quite a large difference. Somewhat irrelevant to this thread - my original comment was intended to be a little tongue in cheek. ATM has a high PE but so do many boring companies these days, I'm expecting there to be quite a lot of growth left on ATM over the next few years even if the rate of growth is less exceptional than it has been in the recent past.

[winner69]

PEs are only a ‘relative’ measure and there’s many reasons why market pundits use the word ‘relative’

[carrom74]

I expected the market to pick up today(for some short covering) but its not happening...

Its going be a long(sleepless) night for me tonight:confused:

[couta1]

I expected the market to pick up today(for some short covering) but its not happening...

Its going be a long(sleepless) night for me tonight:confused: Better to buy the real news than the rumour, sleep tight were on a long road here

[sb9]

I expected the market to pick up today(for some short covering) but its not happening...

Its going be a long(sleepless) night for me tonight:confused:

Generally big run before ASM would've resulted in 'sell the news' factor, I'm picking it could be 'buy the news' this time.

In any case, seem as though market would like to have more clarity re what to expect around margin expectation and Jayne and board need to provide that detail. Shaping to be a very interesting meeting this one.

[see weed]

I expected the market to pick up today(for some short covering) but its not happening...

Its going be a long(sleepless) night for me tonight:confused:
Sleepless worried that price may go up.(FOMO) Buy a whole lot more and make it easier to sleep;).

[couta1]

Sleepless worried that price may go up.(FOMO) Buy a whole lot more and make it easier to sleep;). I have never been a good sleeper(Genetics) so ATM being up or down makes no difference, half an Imovane tab(Zopiclone) a couple or so times a week does the trick. PS-Most of the old folks in the retirement villages take these every night. Lol

[RTM]

Thanks Carrom for that link. What I get from that article is converting a herd is “profitably neutral “ but farmers should at least start using the A2 insemination from now on and eventually A2 will be the standard and A1 will possibly be at a discount.
Couta, I understand what you are saying is that A2 ltd is enjoying huge growth and potential growth as it has worked itself to be “johnny on the spot” before the inevitable mainstreaming of the product, albeit some time away.
Left field, thanks for your reply too but I didn't call the industry a sunset one ,so we at least agree there. I called the ATM company ,a sunset company the way I see it.


My 2 main concerns I have as a potential investor:
Firstly, At some point the growing( although slowly from the link above) herd conversions will erode the current A2 premium margins with increasing supply. So it's a timing thing of optimising when to sell up as it naturally transforms from an intellectual property type rating to a seller of a commodity type rating. As I, and probably most here, have no superior global industry knowledge or contacts to get a heads up on when to exit the door first. It is then a blind and nervous position to be in with a lot of finger crossing. Perhaps the optimal time has even already passed?


Secondly, if A2 milk does become normalised to the global market, then surely the A2ltd “brand” (and that's all this company is as I understand it) becomes meaningless as other competitors offer A2 as a standard commodity to at cut throat margins.Therefore A2ltd brand has become irrelevant and its IP worth no more than the brand “NZ”.


I can get why you have a truckload of HLG Couta but ATM seems an outlier to me. It would just cause me sleepless nights.

I think this argument falls on deaf ears Maverick. Back as far as 2017 I had these concerns and posted accordingly multiple times. Post 6545 has an American news clip talking about A2 milk. Worth watching. At around 3:35 - 3:40 the guy says A2 will be the milk of the future.

Disc. Have never held...sadly.

[bull....]

having another crack at this

[silu]

having another crack at this

Long or Short?

[couta1]

having another crack at this Surprise Surprise, hope you've got the fire extinguisher ready and pointed at your rear end.

[Beagle]

I think this argument falls on deaf ears Maverick. Back as far as 2017 I had these concerns and posted accordingly multiple times. Post 6545 has an American news clip talking about A2 milk. Worth watching. At around 3:35 - 3:40 the guy says A2 will be the milk of the future.

Disc. Have never held...sadly.

I can't help wondering if quite a number of people are holding because they have previously done very well out of the stock ?
"Attachment" to a stock because it had made a big difference to one's financial position in the past is something that I would think is not especially uncommon.

[bull....]

Surprise Surprise, hope you've got the fire extinguisher ready and pointed at your rear end.

just like you couta one must stick with there conviction. mines based mainly on technicals at the moment. but unlike you i dont throw my whole hand on 1 stock. so if im wrong i be back

[see weed]

just like you couta one must stick with there conviction. mines based mainly on technicals at the moment. but unlike you i dont throw my whole hand on 1 stock. so if im wrong i be back
Sp down bit over $5 in 3 months. One thing I have noticed recently, is sp just keeps on wanting to go back up. Do you think shorters should let sp get back up to $18 or $20, then do another massive short from there. It hasn't been below 12.45 in last 4 trading days. So come on all you shorters, give it a rest for a week or two and let it get back to the top, then you can short to your hearts content:).

[see weed]

I expected the market to pick up today(for some short covering) but its not happening...

Its going be a long(sleepless) night for me tonight:confused:
There you go, a nice little green to close the day. Now don't forget to have a nice cup of hot chocolate with a2 milk and then take slow deep breaths in and out until you go to sleep and then dream of what to do with all your profits in the future. That's what I do, and you could even add a bit of O'Maras's Irish Country Cream:t_up:. ps anyone here going to AGM tomorrow?

[couta1]

There you go, a nice little green to close the day. Now don't forget to have a nice cup of hot chocolate with a2 milk and then take slow deep breaths in and out until you go to sleep and then dream of what to do with all your profits in the future. That's what I do, and you could even add a bit of O'Maras's Irish Country Cream:t_up:. ps anyone here going to AGM tomorrow? I find the A2 with Canterbury Cream plus a half Zopiclone seems to be a good combo, I know you shouldnt mix your drugs but what the hang.:eek2:

[carrom74]

There you go, a nice little green to close the day. Now don't forget to have a nice cup of hot chocolate with a2 milk and then take slow deep breaths in and out until you go to sleep and then dream of what to do with all your profits in the future. That's what I do, and you could even add a bit of O'Maras's Irish Country Cream:t_up:. ps anyone here going to AGM tomorrow?

I would need a lot of greener days See Weed... A2 Milk is my only stock in my portfolio and i have sold all my other stocks to get at these ridiculously( my take) low prices.

I do buy A2 Milk but never tried it with Chocolate and will take your advice today.:cool:

Not going to the AGM but will be on the virtual platform...(during my breaks..).

[winner69]

H120 financials might be OK

But will $250m ebitda please the market

[Blue Skies]

I find the A2 with Canterbury Cream plus a half Zopiclone seems to be a good combo, I know you shouldnt mix your drugs but what the hang.:eek2:


That Zopiclone apparently good for reducing anxiety too. :)

Good luck for tomorrow.

[couta1]

That Zopiclone apparently good for reducing anxiety too. :)

Good luck for tomorrow. Lol your right I just looked it up, no wonder I feel so calm in the morning after taking it.

[Balance]

https://www.fool.com.au/2019/11/18/when-will-we-see-the-a2-milk-share-price-bounce-back/

"a2 Milk will have its annual general meeting on 19th November, which may include a business update and/or renewed guidance. Overall, I believe a2 has a lot to prove to the market before it becomes a worthwhile growth story. Therefore I would prefer to watch the stock from the sidelines."

[see weed]

https://www.fool.com.au/2019/11/18/when-will-we-see-the-a2-milk-share-price-bounce-back/

"a2 Milk will have its annual general meeting on 19th November, which may include a business update and/or renewed guidance. Overall, I believe a2 has a lot to prove to the market before it becomes a worthwhile growth story. Therefore I would prefer to watch the stock from the sidelines."
And a worthwhile growth story it is.

[couta1]

Let the good times roll, Beagle stay in your kennel, Bull close your short.

[Balance]

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/ATM/344476/312103.pdf

Looks like 1H20 will deliver :

Better than expected increase in revenues and better than previously indicated margins!

:t_up:

[winner69]

This is an profit upgrade .....and quite a big one

Just look at those margins ...even with heaps of marketing expenses

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/ATM/344476/312103.pdf

[couta1]

Could be a hot arvo for shorters.

[dompf]

Should be a good day for a2 those shorts if weren’t covered might get hurt today.

Interested in US share growth of market. Find out more during day especially when asx opens

[carrom74]

Let the good times roll, Beagle stay in your kennel, Bull close your short.

And Carrom-Sleep well tonight:eek2:

[winner69]

Let the good times roll, Beagle stay in your kennel, Bull close your short.

....but Beagle and others will still say A2 has a relatively high PE and is way overvalued

[Balance]

....but Beagle and others will still say A2 has a relatively high PE and is way overvalued

Depends on where the sp settles at?

[allfromacell]

Nice to see strong growth continued in the CBEC and China labels, also surprised to see A2 Fresh Milk in Aus still growing strongly at 12%.

I think the revenue guidance is broadly inline with consensus but increased margins should see the SP lifting today :t_up:. Hopefully theses are conservative too.

[couta1]

Consensus beaten, analyst upgrades will be forthcoming, not that I care what those manipulating scum think but some do.

[silu]

Hot damn I'm still going through the figures but on first count they exceeded my expectations. Let's hope the market is getting the same surprise as me and is burning whoever still shorts this stock.

[NZSilver]

Consensus is approx 1.65bil for fy 2020, so 800mil half year means likely fy will be 1.8-2billion. Significant upgrade. Should have bought more at these prices, but I didn't sell any either so glass is half full!

[mfd]

Half year revenue expected to be 30% up on last year with decent margins maintained, and the long term incentive plan places a floor of 15% CAGR for both EPS and revenue for the next few years if management want their bonuses. Happy to hold.

[silu]

Although still small in the overall scheme of things I find the +110% growth for US sales very pleasing.

[couta1]

Must also mention the new supply agreement with Synlait with very favourable terms for A2.

[Beagle]

Last year they did 47% of their sales in IH so at the mid point of sales guidance if we extrapolate the same 1H - 2H trend out sales for FY20 will come in about $1.68B as against average analyst expectation of $1.65b, a 1.8% forecast consensus beat.

By my calculations at the mid point of EBITDA forecast of 29.5% against average analyst expectation of 28.2% this adds $1,680m x 1.3% = $21.8m to EBITDA, which was according to average analyst estimate $476m, so is now $497.8m. I expect eps to be about 5% above the current analyst average of 44 cps = ~ 46 cps which gives approx. 18% earnings growth on last years 39 cps.

My thoughts, worthwhile update and I have moved my thinking to seeing the shares at fair value at $13, forward PE 28 seems reasonable with a growth rate of 18% and forecast growth rate for the FY21 and FY22 of a similar amount. Upgraded from reduce to HOLD at $13.

Disc: No position and not looking to buy.

[couta1]

Lol $13 is history, back to $18 next year, enjoy the ride holders.

[Oliver Mander]

Talk about knocking it out of the park. Should have backed my instinct more int he run-up to this...won't do badly at all, but held back a bit 'cause of the uncertainty. Powerful looking Outlook.

[mfd]

Consensus is approx 1.65bil for fy 2020, so 800mil half year means likely fy will be 1.8-2billion. Significant upgrade. Should have bought more at these prices, but I didn't sell any either so glass is half full!

Looking at previous years, Beagle's estimate of H1 contributing 47% of FY revenue looks pretty consistent so you may be a little overoptimistic. However, when the company does surprise us it tends to be to the upside.

[silu]

<insert happydance.gif>
$14.62 open

[Balance]

<insert happydance.gif>
$14.62 open

Real action happens when ASX opens.

This is just posturing - let's see what happens at 12 noon.

[silu]

Real action happens when ASX opens.

This is just posturing - let's see what happens at 12 noon.

Always true. But then ASX should open even higher with shorters (most likely) closing their positions?

[t.rexjr]

Last year they did 47% of their sales in IH so at the mid point of sales guidance if we extrapolate the same 1H - 2H trend out sales for FY20 will come in about $1.68B as against average analyst expectation of $1.65b, a 1.8% forecast consensus beat.

Is there no more growth?

[Balance]

Always true. But then ASX should open even higher with shorters (most likely) closing their positions?

A lot of gaming going on so let's see what happens.

[carrom74]

A lot of gaming going on so let's see what happens.

Balance-A quick question...can shorts cover at NZX?? (if they have shorted in ASX?)

[Balance]

Balance-A quick question...can shorts cover at NZX?? (if they have shorted in ASX?)

Not directly but they can buy stock in NZ and shunt stock to ASX to cover.

[carrom74]

Not directly but they can buy stock in NZ and shunt stock to ASX to cover.

I guess thats what is happening now... short covering before the onslaught at ASX from 12.

[Ted2]

Up enough to buy a couple of Mercedes!! :t_up: :t_up: :t_up: Burn with Israel shorters.......:laugh: :laugh: :laugh:

[dompf]

I hate to think how much money shorters will lose today, but I bet they had made a lot of money ramming this stock down as well.

[blackcap]

Balance-A quick question...can shorts cover at NZX?? (if they have shorted in ASX?)

Balance's statement is correct and you can shunt. But even if you do not shunt, you can buy on the NZX to limit your exposure. When Aussie opens you can then buy on ASX and sell on NZX simultaneously (brokerage is pretty much irrelevant these days). Thus it is quite possible that shorters are exiting their positions by purchasing on the NZX.

[Beagle]

Is there no more growth?

Sorry, I have nothing to add to my analysis at post #14,648. That's where I see it and if the market and others see it differently that's fine.

[Balance]

I hate to think how much money shorters will lose today, but I bet they had made a lot of money ramming this stock down as well.

They only make money when they cover.

[bull....]

Not directly but they can buy stock in NZ and shunt stock to ASX to cover.

or you could have brought in nz yest still have a short in aus , and still make money all round

[couta1]

I guess thats what is happening now... short covering before the onslaught at ASX from 12. Sometimes the NZX can get a bit too keen through, it's happened a few times before but let's see.

[bull....]

good to see jane sticking to investing in the company instead of the pandering to short term share price movements

[RGR367]

Time to really put the shares on the bottom drawer now and not to worry about accumulating it anymore. I got heaps for best comfort as I might even consider this becoming a bit like a boring stock already :)

[Sideshow Bob]

Good on ya Couta and others who hold with conviction. :t_up:

I was heavily considering topping up further in the last few days, but lack of action in the last few days put me off (and slipped from my mind with other stuff). Some is better than none!

[sb9]

Nice ASM, well conducted and love all those bullish updates.

Gotta love Jayne's response re CEO and senior management selling question. Kudos to the team, they deserve to be rewarded for all their hard work.

My tp is to be in the vicinity of $20 by 1H results in Feb'20.

[Sideshow Bob]

Opened up in Strayla at $14.00 +/-

***Grabs popcorn and A2 milkshake***

[Balance]

Nice ASM, well conducted and love all those bullish updates.

Gotta love Jayne's response re CEO and senior management selling question. Kudos to the team, they deserve to be rewarded for all their hard work.

My tp is to be in the vicinity of $20 by 1H results in Feb'20.

A lot of time spent on share selling by executives.

My pick - we will sell a lot of selling from this source this week.

Second your kudos to the team and how well the ASM was conducted. :t_up:

[Beagle]

Updated forward PE @ $14.26, my estimated FY20 earnings are 46 cps = forward PE of 31, about the same as when Geoffrey Babbage was in charge and it was growing much, much faster.

[JeremyALD]

Updated forward PE @ $14.26, my estimated FY20 earnings are 46 cps = forward PE of 31, about the same as when Geoffrey Babbage was in charge and it was growing much, much faster.

What other company is growing as fast as ATM with as much cash as A2 milk has a PE of 31 on the NZX? You'd struggle to find better value imo.

[Beagle]

What other company is growing as fast as ATM with as much cash as A2 milk has a PE of 31 on the NZX? You'd struggle to find better value imo.

A while back I worked out the cash pile at about 60 cents a share, maybe its a little more now. Not worth getting to wound up about when you quantify it down on a per share basis.
Best way to compare valuations of growth companies (because they will all be growing earnings at different rates) is to look at the PEG ratio.
Forward Price earnings / eps growth rate. In ATM's case the PEG ratio based on today's updated forecast is 31 / 18 = 1.72
More on PEG ratio's here https://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/pegratio.asp

The other day I posted an example of a stock growing underlying earnings on average at 15% per annum, on a PEG ratio of 0.70 (MET, who I think are very cheap)
SUM are currently on a PEG of about 1.0 and have a long and highly credible track record of consistently growing underlying earnings very quickly.
HGH another company trading on a forward PE of just 12.2, (basically a no growth rate for the current risk free Govt stock rate) so you're getting growth for nothing as well as an 8.8% gross yield.
Plenty of other better value growth stocks on the NZX, just quoted you 3 obvious ones.
All of these shares are vastly better value growth stocks than ATM in my opinion.

[couta1]

What other company is growing as fast as ATM with as much cash as A2 milk has a PE of 31 on the NZX? You'd struggle to find better value imo. Absolutely, but as Beagle is not a holder or a buyer then his opinion is just that, which of course he's entitled to.

[see weed]

A very good meeting. Full house with about 5 times more people there than 2 years ago. Good food and special coffees served with a2 milk continuously throughout the meeting. Zig Zag was the only other sharetrader I could see there. We shared a few words and laugh over lunch. ps The low for this month was $12.19c on 7/11/19, 8 days ago. Congratulations to all atm buyers since then:t_up:.

[mfd]

One difference I see with A2 is the amount of growth they could have ahead of them. The US market revenue should be 27 million this half year, growing at over 100% per year. They have barely scratched the surface in the fresh milk market let alone adjacent markets. From the meeting today we know the company sees significant growth ahead in China as they develop their sales in channels other than Daigou. Add to that the rest of the world where they will pick and choose market entries as they like. This company could potentially grow at high rates for years and years. Obviously not the only growth opportunity in town, but I am certainly more confident about future growth after today's presentations.

[allfromacell]

The Balance sheet at the end of this year will look very strong, when I add FY19 Cash + FY20 NPAT + Synlait Investment I get $1.13 per share. Because of how light this business is and how it easily it pays it's costs with cash flow I believe discounting this off the PE calculation is worthwhile.

$14.10 - $1.13 = $12.97. I suspect Jayne and co are being conservative with their growth projections as they were with previous margins and 50CPS is easily obtainable giving a 2020 naked PE of 25.86. Still loads of value here imo.

[see weed]

One difference I see with A2 is the amount of growth they could have ahead of them. The US market revenue should be 27 million this half year, growing at over 100% per year. They have barely scratched the surface in the fresh milk market let alone adjacent markets. From the meeting today we know the company sees significant growth ahead in China as they develop their sales in channels other than Daigou. Add to that the rest of the world where they will pick and choose market entries as they like. This company could potentially grow at high rates for years and years. Obviously not the only growth opportunity in town, but I am certainly more confident about future growth after today's presentations.
Maybe get the second wave of new a2 shareholders coming in tomorrow with all the news and media hype of how well they are doing;).

[Beagle]

Interesting perspective - this Naked PE.
SML contributes to earnings so attributing a cash value to that shareholding and stripping it out and coming up with a forward PE based on a rather creative "attributed" cash value looks pretty "creative" to me. If ATM didn't have that shareholding I doubt they could lean on SML for such good supply arrangements so that shareholding is an integrated part of their business model in my view and probably confers meaningful earnings power to ATM beyond ATM's share of SML's reported earnings.
Happy to stick with my analsysis and valuation clearly articulated earlier today. I'm not getting caught up in the "hype" that this is a "major" upgrade.

[alex f]

Cnu p/e 46, fph p/e 56, fbu p/e 27, xro p/e 5482

[couta1]

Crazy volatility as always and we wouldn't have it any other way, would we!!! Sleep well Carrom if your not too excited and then theres always the element that we really dont have a solid clue about what tomorrow may bring just to keep the edge on.

[see weed]

a2m up 8c and rising, from NZX close 60 mins. ago:).

[winner69]

The much adored Ben Graham would say a PE of 46 is about right

So $21 here we come


using Beagles modest 18% growth and PE of 10 for no growth

[carrom74]

Crazy volatility as always and we wouldn't have it any other way, would we!!! Sleep well Carrom if your not too excited and then theres always the element that we really dont have a solid clue about what tomorrow may bring just to keep the edge on.

Couldn’t agree more Couta.. I should sleep well tonight as I am Just in the green... $14.06 is my average... Tomorrow is a new day... and let’s see what’s we have in store eh?

[Beagle]

The much adored Ben Graham would say a PE of 46 is about right

So $21 here we come


using Beagles modest 18% growth and PE of 10 for no growth

LOL, trouble is if you use that theory MET is also worth $21 :)...which is why I stick to 1g plus 10 these days.

[see weed]

a2m up 8c and rising, from NZX close 60 mins. ago:).
a2m up 12c from nzx close.

[mfd]

The revenue growth and margin upgrade were great, but I particularly liked the way Jane talked about the China market.

"we are only just beginning onthe journey to our full potential in this market"

"Channels outside what is sourced directly from Australia account for ~90% of the market’s infantnutrition category value. We are significantly under-developed in the majority of thesestrategically important channels to consumers."

"there is asignificant opportunity to accelerate our brand scale by step-changing brand awareness and trial"

"more product launches to come inthe second half of FY20."

Sounds like there is significant growth still to come from the China business while we wait for the US business to grow to a significant scale.

[see weed]

Bit of coverage of a2 milk on zb news talk after 6.30 pm news tonight

[44wishlists]

MorningStar just updated their recommendation on A2M/ATM. Moved from "Accumulated" to "Hold"

Event analysisA2 Milk's Upgraded Guidance Tracks Our Long-Term Expectations; Shares Remain Undervalued
A2 Milk's updated outlook at its annual general meeting meets our full-year fiscal 2020 top-line forecast, but exceeds our operating earnings estimate. While this improvement has no bearing on our long-term assumptions, we're encouraged by further success driving market share gains while also lifting price--hallmarks of a2's narrow economic moat. Moreover, the company outlined a new remuneration plan which better aligns management incentives with shareholders', and extended its infant formula production agreement with partner Synlait. We lift our fair value estimate to NZD 15.30 (AUD 14.50) from NZD 15.00 (AUD 14.20) due to the time value of money, with shares trading at a slight discount.

A2 is on-track to meet our lofty top-line targets. Management expects revenue in the first half of fiscal 2020 in a range of NZD 780 million to NZD 800 million, including infant formula revenue of NZD 640 million, suggesting about 29% growth in both versus the previous corresponding period. These figures align with our full-year growth forecasts of 30% for infant formula and 28.5% for consolidated revenue. We continue to expect a2 can capture about a point of infant formula market share annually on top of its current 6% in China. While this suggests slowing in the medium term, it still leads to double-digit annual growth in the product over the next decade.


The firm's EBITDA margin for fiscal 2020 is now expected to be 29% to 30%, slightly higher than previous guidance of about 28%, tracking closer to our unchanged long-term margins of about 32%. Encouragingly, this improvement is from successful price increases and favourable cost of goods movements, not a reduction of marketing expenses--which could undermine longer-term profitability. Management targets about NZD 200 million of marketing spending in fiscal 2020, matching our forecast. We think this investment, which steps-up to about 12% of sales from 10% in fiscal 2019, is needed to support the revenue opportunity we see.


For me, I am still accumulating.

[Jonboyz]

The revenue growth and margin upgrade were great, but I particularly liked the way Jane talked about the China market.

"we are only just beginning onthe journey to our full potential in this market"

"Channels outside what is sourced directly from Australia account for ~90% of the market’s infantnutrition category value. We are significantly under-developed in the majority of thesestrategically important channels to consumers."

"there is asignificant opportunity to accelerate our brand scale by step-changing brand awareness and trial"

"more product launches to come inthe second half of FY20."

Sounds like there is significant growth still to come from the China business while we wait for the US business to grow to a significant scale.

I wouldn’t put too much hope on growth in the US milk market given that its largest milk producer has just gone into bankruptcy due to declining milk consumption. Source: https://edition.cnn.com/2019/11/12/business/dean-foods-bankruptcy/index.html

“...has blamed its struggles on the "accelerated decline in the conventional white milk category."

[mfd]

I wouldn’t put too much hope on growth in the US milk market given that its largest milk producer has just gone into bankruptcy due to declining milk consumption. Source: https://edition.cnn.com/2019/11/12/business/dean-foods-bankruptcy/index.html

“...has blamed its struggles on the "accelerated decline in the conventional white milk category."

Luckily for A2, it's not conventional. Milk consumption is falling in Australia too, and that hasn't stopped A2 from growing to 11% of the market with the fresh milk business still growing at 12% per year.

[RupertBear]

A while back I worked out the cash pile at about 60 cents a share, maybe its a little more now. Not worth getting to wound up about when you quantify it down on a per share basis.
Best way to compare valuations of growth companies (because they will all be growing earnings at different rates) is to look at the PEG ratio.
Forward Price earnings / eps growth rate. In ATM's case the PEG ratio based on today's updated forecast is 31 / 18 = 1.72
More on PEG ratio's here https://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/pegratio.asp

The other day I posted an example of a stock growing underlying earnings on average at 15% per annum, on a PEG ratio of 0.70 (MET, who I think are very cheap)
SUM are currently on a PEG of about 1.0 and have a long and highly credible track record of consistently growing underlying earnings very quickly.
HGH another company trading on a forward PE of just 12.2, (basically a no growth rate for the current risk free Govt stock rate) so you're getting growth for nothing as well as an 8.8% gross yield.
Plenty of other better value growth stocks on the NZX, just quoted you 3 obvious ones.
All of these shares are vastly better value growth stocks than ATM in my opinion.

The Bear has the greatest respect for your knowledge and experience Mr Beagle but I just cant get my head around you saying SUM, MET and HGH are vastly better value growth stocks than ATM :eek2: :mellow:

I hold ATM and it is one of my best performing shares :D

[couta1]

The Bear has the greatest respect for your knowledge and experience Mr Beagle but I just cant get my head around you saying SUM, MET and HGH are vastly better value growth stocks than ATM :eek2: :mellow:

I hold ATM and it is one of my best performing shares :D I cant say too much without getting into a Dogfight but you wouldn't be the only one with those thoughts.:confused:

[tomm]

I cant say too much without getting into a Dogfight but you wouldn't be the only one with those thoughts.:confused:

want a beer bud b

[t.rexjr]

Luckily for A2, it's not conventional. Milk consumption is falling in Australia too, and that hasn't stopped A2 from growing to 11% of the market with the fresh milk business still growing at 12% per year.

Intolerance would be a huge factor in the dwindling milk consumption stats. Whats A2 all about again? ah yeah...

David said 'US Companies were approaching them and that's almost unheard of' (not direct quote but along those lines) I got the impression: actually they pretty much stated, US was looking very promising. They have the cash and the branding to have a big push and market the bejesus out of it. i think A2 in the US will explode and you will see stupendous growth there. A 30 odd PE on current SP is nothing if they crack it there...

One of the flaws in the partnership with Fonterra within NZ is that we'll never see a marketing campaign that implies any negative to our dairy industry. As a result many NZer just won't/don't get it. That includes perspective investors

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i4TGwweXqkg

[Baa_Baa]

The Bear has the greatest respect for your knowledge and experience Mr Beagle but I just cant get my head around you saying SUM, MET and HGH are vastly better value growth stocks than ATM :eek2: :mellow:

I hold ATM and it is one of my best performing shares :D

As percy reminds us, success in investing is not just about choosing wisely, it is also about buying wisely ... ergo in fast growth companies or sectors, sometimes it's better to just hold your breath and wait for a decent entry. Everything in the market goes up and down, there's quality buying for the selective investor who is patient, always.

That moment can flash by us rather quickly though, so for ATM the moment past us today, arguably last week. Today was a very good day, the company matured significantly in the quality of their messaging to the market, including an upgrade and very positive outlook. It's still not too late to get on board or top up a long term success story. It's just not as good buying as it was yesterday, or last week. Hardly significant if one has a few decades horizon.

As for the other companies cited, I'm comfortable timing my buys in SUM, and HGH, both are around 30% up, around about the same as ATM after today's announcements. OCA, well I have enjoyed a long period of accumulation and recently some upside, it will do very well in the long term. I have a couple of other specs which could make these mainstream holds look lame when (if) they truely fire up.

Back to ATM, I don't think there's much point in arguing the FA metrics, it changes frequently and you'll note that the FA's never agree with each other, this company will confound the non-holders and naysayers for a long time regardless of how they reconcile their reluctance to take even a modest position, or any position.

As an analogy, there's a million reasons why you shouldn't have bought XRO at IPO .65 to now around $AU 77, but none of those reasons negate the fact that there's accidental millionaires who just bought a pile and ignored the noise and enjoyed the ride.

[Beagle]

The Bear has the greatest respect for your knowledge and experience Mr Beagle but I just cant get my head around you saying SUM, MET and HGH are vastly better value growth stocks than ATM :eek2: :mellow:

I hold ATM and it is one of my best performing shares :D

The key word there is "value" my friend. Stocks mentioned, their forward PE is very cheap relative to their growth rate and that makes them better value. You're not the only one on here by any means that needs to get their head around what a PEG ratio is and how you measure relative value with it in regard to comparing growth companies. Some will try and upskill and others...

ATM by no means the only company on the NZX that I think is poor value based on its projected eps growth rate. Others include FPH, AIA, RYM and POT to name just 4.
All good companies and all trading on very stretched metrics.

[winner69]

I cant say too much without getting into a Dogfight but you wouldn't be the only one with those thoughts.:confused:

All this talk about ratios and about how things should more structured and orderly got me thinking

I’ve concluded that means Beagle should downhill at Cardrona as fast as you ....or not much fun for you you go his speed.

[see weed]

a2m up 12c from nzx close.
Where to today? Big front page a2 in Buss. Herald this morning. All positive news.

[couta1]

All this talk about ratios and about how things should more structured and orderly got me thinking

I’ve concluded that means Beagle should downhill at Cardrona as fast as you ....or not much fun for you you go his speed. Beagle does 1 run from the top to to my 2 so keeping the RYM/SUM ratio perfectly intact, structured and orderly.

[winner69]

Beagle does 1 run from the top to to my 2 so keeping the RYM/SUM ratio perfectly intact, structured and orderly.

I get it ....somethings are always twice as good / fast as another thing ....and I’d say impossible to change that :p:mad ;::)

[Sideshow Bob]

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/ATM/344559/312187.pdf

Pendal Group will be stoked. Looks like they bought another 7.5m/1% last week.

[tomm]

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/ATM/344559/312187.pdf

Pendal Group will be stoked. Looks like they bought another 7.5m/1% last week.

They bought before the AGM. Clever eh...

[tomm]

Just a quick question to the advance , how long do you have until you have to pay back the shares you shorted with direct Broking ( same day) ? Thanks.

[44wishlists]

They bought before the AGM. Clever eh...

The amount of profit (paper) that they gained in just a few days :eek2::eek2:

P.S. can someone elaborate further on Pendal Group's position please?

[Leftfield]

[QUOTE=44wishlists;779043 P.S. can someone elaborate further on Pendal Group's position please?[/QUOTE]

Well positioned lol!

(Just chipping in from afar)

Delighted by yesterday’s update, and very pleased for those all holders and particularly those 'steady hands' that held firm under the recent shorting pressure. Great news also for those new shareholders who purchased (or averaged down) in the recent lows.

ATM represents over 55% of my portfolio (all ‘free hold’) and I was thinking of selling a few to diversify elsewhere.

However, after reviewing these results I am holding on to all my ATM.

My thoughts FWIW
1.) I estimate FY20 EPS of 50-55 cps ( c.f. 39.3 cps in FY19), and see fair val at $NZ16.50 to $19.00 (depending on what P/E multiple you use.... if you use Winners P/E of 45 things get exciting!!)
2.) I note Maquarie have today rated A2M as ‘outperform’ with a SP at $NZ 16.20 and FY20 EPS of 52.8
3.) In the past CEO Jane received a lot of flack from posters on this site all based on little substance other than her earlier share sell-down. I’m now confident that she is a worthy successor to the previous CEO and is surrounded by a great team (incl the Board.)
4.) Really excited by the progress A2 is making in the USA.

Great times a head for A2 holders…… enjoy!

[Joshuatree]

Cheers left field your risk/rward comfort zone is on a far higher level then mine.
My brokers research note out today has buy still with(12 month) t/p increased slightly to $16.60 fwiw.

[see weed]

Maybe get the second wave of new a2 shareholders coming in tomorrow with all the news and media hype of how well they are doing;).
Yes, and we have come a long way since the low of $12.19c on the 7/11/19, a loooong slow upward grind. We all deserve a pat on the back by the non believers, for today anyway. Congratulations to all new and old shareholders.:t_up::D:t_up:

[carrom74]

Yes, and we have come a long way since the low of $12.19c on the 7/11/19, a loooong slow upward grind. We all deserve a pat on the back by the non believers, for today anyway. Congratulations to all new and old shareholders.:t_up::D:t_up:

Just to reiterate... sold all my holdings to buy this beauty. Definitely not the best strategy... but I hope it pay off!!

Seeweed— the chocolate A2 was just fantastic!😀👍👏

[see weed]

Just to reiterate... sold all my holdings to buy this beauty. Definitely not the best strategy... but I hope it pay off!!

Seeweed— the chocolate A2 was just fantastic!
I did the same at about 97%. They had a2 chocolate drink on show at the AGM yesterday.:t_up:

[couta1]

Love you guys diworsification, Beagle will be round with the stick soon to pull you guys back into line.

[sb9]

$15 seem to be on the beckoning by end of this week...

[see weed]

Love you guys diworsification, Beagle will be round with the stick soon to pull you guys back into line.
:DReminds me of being chased by the prefects at school many years ago:D:p:eek2::D

[see weed]

There she blows $12 aussi...for how long?
That was last Thursday 14/11/19. What happened to $13?:cool: Woops, $14 over there now:t_up:.

[see weed]

Just to reiterate... sold all my holdings to buy this beauty. Definitely not the best strategy... but I hope it pay off!!

Seeweed— the chocolate A2 was just fantastic!
Hope you are sleeping sounder now;).......$15? anyone.

[couta1]

Hope you are sleeping sounder now;).......$15? anyone. Breather time tomorrow being Friday and all.

[sb9]

Breather time tomorrow being Friday and all.

Me thinks its different this time as shorts are in a hurry to cover by the looks...

[couta1]

Me thinks its different this time as shorts are in a hurry to cover by the looks... Not all the shorts have to cover if they are held by passive funds.

[sb9]

Not all the shorts have to cover if they are held by passive funds.

Could well be, but my theory is that they cover here for another attack later when sp is around $16 or even higher...

[couta1]

Could well be, but my theory is that they cover here for another attack later when sp is around $16 or even higher... Will be interesting to see how many have covered over the last 3 days, 6.5 mill were covered on AGM day.

[see weed]

Will be interesting to see how many have covered over the last 3 days, 6.5 mill were covered on AGM day.
a2m in Auss getting close to $14 again. Two blocks at 13.99 and 14 don't seem to be pushing back the price at the moment.

[couta1]

a2m in Auss getting close to $14 again. Two blocks at 13.99 and 14 don't seem to be pushing back the price at the moment. Has been an awesome week for me as it would have been for you, trading a third of my holding up and down to lock in some good profits.

[Blue Skies]

Has been an awesome week for me as it would have been for you, trading a third of my holding up and down to lock in some good profits.

Good on you Couta, glad to see you came out on top, admire your tenacity through what has been a very testing period.

[couta1]

Good on you Couta, glad to see you came out on top, admire your tenacity through what has been a very testing period. Thanks, yep pretty tough to have all your actual profits put into negative territory twice over the last 6 months odd, keen to hold onto them this time.

[see weed]

Has been an awesome week for me as it would have been for you, trading a third of my holding up and down to lock in some good profits.
From 20/9/19 have bought 17 parcels in the 12.40 to 13.60 region. Am now able to do a motley fool, and sit on the side lines and make large gains while waiting for there verdict of whether a2 is worthwhile investing in.:D

[tomm]

:t_up: bought a bit at 12.75 and sold at 14.88 :t_up: , that is my Xmas holiday spend :t_up:
The rest will hold onto it, now waiting for a "POP" to buy as it reached the RSI of overbought or when insider selling their shares as usual.

[couta1]

:t_up: bought a bit at 12.75 and sold at 14.88 :t_up: , that is my Xmas holiday spend :t_up:
The rest will hold onto it, now waiting for a "POP" to buy as it reached the RSI of overbought or when insider selling their shares as usual. My selling a third just grew to a half, those itchy fingers hard to control but it sure is fun.Lol

[tomm]

My selling a third just grew to a half, those itchy fingers hard to control but it sure is fun.Lol
I am sure you are a guru trader as how they say, you don't bother about a few cents up and down do you. LOL

[couta1]

I am sure you are a guru trader as how they say, you don't bother about a few cents up and down do you. LOL When you trade volume you dont have to worry about a few cents but I aim to avg the VWAP of the day or better on the sell side and under it on the buy side, of course that's not going to matter if it suddenly goes up another 50c the next day and your not selling but if it goes down 50c it certainly does.

[tomm]

When you trade volume you dont have to worry about a few cents but I aim to avg the VWAP of the day or better on the sell side and under it on the buy side, of course that's not going to matter if it suddenly goes up another 50c the next day and your not selling but if it goes down 50c it certainly does.
And no one can know these things but by guessing according to info's one can find lol.

[see weed]

Could well be, but my theory is that they cover here for another attack later when sp is around $16 or even higher...
Yes, my thoughts also. It's a bit risky shorting now at this low sp. Last week UBS upped their holding by 11mill., Mitsubishi etc by 7.4mill, Pendal by 7.6mill and Morgan Stanley (a new holder?) by 40.7mill. I'm choosing to sit tight at this stage and do a Motley Fool from the side lines and see what happens after $16--$17. It is much easier to short from $25 down to $16 than from $14.96 to $13.96;).

[couta1]

Yes, my thoughts also. It's a bit risky shorting now at this low sp. Last week UBS upped their holding by 11mill., Mitsubishi etc by 7.4mill, Pendal by 7.6mill and Morgan Stanley (a new holder?) by 40.7mill. I'm choosing to sit tight at this stage and do a Motley Fool from the side lines and see what happens after $16--$17. It is much easier to short from $25 down to $16 than from $14.96 to $13.96;). Those outfits are all players and short facilitators except Pendal. Lol

[Balance]

https://www.shortman.com.au/stock?q=a2m

Stunning! Shorters increased their position by 7.8m shares in the week before the ASM!

Ouch!

[see weed]

Those outfits are all players and short facilitators except Pendal. Lol
Fair enough. So how far will they let it run? As I said above, the further north it goes the easier to short. If I was a shorter $25 is easier to short than $15. Or maybe they will choose $18, or make a big thing out of the next bit of negative news to push it down then.

[couta1]

Fair enough. So how far will they let it run? As I said above, the further north it goes the easier to short. If I was a shorter $25 is easier to short than $15. Or maybe they will choose $18, or make a big thing out of the next bit of negative news to push it down then. The last option is quite plausible at this point, lend them out to the punters who think it will have a temporal drop from here.

[couta1]

https://www.shortman.com.au/stock?q=a2m

Stunning! Shorters increased their position by 7.8m shares in the week before the ASM!

Ouch! About 15 mill odd covered since AGM.

[see weed]

The last option is quite plausible at this point, lend them out to the punters who think it will have a temporal drop from here.
Did you notice there was a 200,000+block at $14.15 couple hours ago on asx a2. That has now been shifted to $14.08c. Someone trying to keep the price down?

[couta1]

Did you notice there was a 200,000+block at $14.15 couple hours ago on asx a2. That has now been shifted to $14.08c. Someone trying to keep the price down? Lot of big blocks in a 10c range today, love the games, plays into my hands. Lol

[tomm]

China Dairy Giant Buying Kirin Assets for $419 Millionhttps://nz.finance.yahoo.com/news/china-dairy-giant-buying-kirin-022105994.html

[Balance]

https://www.shortman.com.au/stock?q=a2m

So only 1.2m shorted shares covered on ASM day.

[couta1]

https://www.shortman.com.au/stock?q=a2m

So only 1.2m shorted shares covered on ASM day. About 16 mill covered from then till now and plenty of big sellers lurking allowing them to cover in an orderly fashion if they so wish.

[Sideshow Bob]

Nestle A2 fortified and for the whole family.

https://www.nutraingredients-asia.com/Article/2019/11/20/A2-milk-for-whole-family-Nestle-China-s-expands-demographic-reach-after-previous-launches-for-mother-and-baby?utm_source=newsletter_daily&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=26-Nov-2019&c=vyBYncJCWKXkycRMF3eRSOTSwEV1ai2T&p2=

[tomm]

Nestle A2 fortified and for the whole family.

https://www.nutraingredients-asia.com/Article/2019/11/20/A2-milk-for-whole-family-Nestle-China-s-expands-demographic-reach-after-previous-launches-for-mother-and-baby?utm_source=newsletter_daily&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=26-Nov-2019&c=vyBYncJCWKXkycRMF3eRSOTSwEV1ai2T&p2=





It mean , A2 Milk's Infants formula and Children Formula are safe for now, they are waiting for the market reactions on their new products.

[Leftfield]

Looks like Jane sold her shares (https://www.nzx.com/announcements/344960)....... nice to get that elephant out of the room.

The shorters are hoping for a SP decline on this news so hold on tight.

[Balance]

Looks like Jane sold her shares (https://www.nzx.com/announcements/344960)....... nice to get that elephant out of the room.

The shorters are hoping for a SP decline on this news so hold on tight.


A lot of time spent on share selling by executives.

My pick - we will sell a lot of selling from this source this week.

Second your kudos to the team and how well the ASM was conducted. :t_up:

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/344961

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/344960

As expected.

Well covered at ASM.

[sb9]

Looks like Jane sold her shares (https://www.nzx.com/announcements/344960)....... nice to get that elephant out of the room.

The shorters are hoping for a SP decline on this news so hold on tight.

Nice, was waiting for this one to happen as I'm keen to have a small top up before it starts to fly again. Got some spare funds released for any opportunistic entry over next few days...

[tomm]

I use to go to https://www.forsythbarr.co.nz/ to see a full list of In Depth trades everyday but now it is changed, anyone know where I can see a Full list of In Depth trades ?Direct Broking give only a short recent list, thanks.

[Leftfield]

Nice, was waiting for this one to happen as I'm keen to have a small top up before it starts to fly again. Got some spare funds released for any opportunistic entry over next few days...

Encouraging to see A2 bounce back on the ASX after the news late this afternoon ( up 1% overall for the day on the ASX).

Lucky I chose this aft to sell enough ATM at $15 (to refund my cash after the recent SKO purchase.) :p

Expect a bit of tree shaking tomorrow, tho' I suspect shorts will be sweating before long.