ATM - A2 Milk Corporation Limited

[Blue Skies]

Jayne re-elected unopposed Tennis Australia Chair till 2022
https://www.tennis.com.au/news/2019/11/25/jayne-hrdlicka-re-elected-tennis-australia-chair

[tomm]

Jayne re-elected unopposed Tennis Australia Chair till 2022
https://www.tennis.com.au/news/2019/11/25/jayne-hrdlicka-re-elected-tennis-australia-chair
The Board chopped her off because of this I guess. She won't be able to commit 100% of herself for the company and she is not entitle to accept another roles with her agreement and huge pay with the company.
Very greedy from her and the Board of A2 did not accept that. Off You Go... and I am happy about it ..hahahah

[couta1]

I think once the full reality sets in as to just how much she has pulled the wool over the eyes and ripped off shareholders, myriads of pitchforks will be located in sheds all over the place.

[Lola]

I think once the full reality sets in as to just how much she has pulled the wool over the eyes and ripped off shareholders, myriads of pitchforks will be located in sheds all over the place.

Exactly. Do hope Silu has read this post and all the previous ones today. Good luck tennis Australia is all I can say.

[Beagle]

Shareholders association lashes out and is clearly deeply unimpressed.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/farming/118044514/a2-milk-appoints-interim-chief-executive

[silu]

Exactly. Do hope Silu has read this post and all the previous ones today. Good luck tennis Australia is all I can say.

My issue was with this line "but thats a cost of diversity for you." You either implied that the Board was looking for a woman only or that a woman in the job somehow costs more. But lets get back to business because this is what this forum is about.

[bull....]

Hearn insisted the board was right behind Hrdlicka’s strategy to ramp up marketing spending to help build the brand on the ground in China

But where Hrdlicka has been prepared to sacrifice margin to get there, it appears that the board feels less sure about that part of the plan.

https://www.afr.com/chanticleer/behind-hrdlicka-s-outsing-at-a2-milk-20191209-p53i2b


the bull was right .. the board got cold feet and has lost the plot

[bull....]

now we know the board position it all makes sense why shorts have been increasing big time ... they lost the plot and are doomed long term to the likes of nestle , mengui

[tomm]

Shareholders Association chief executive Michael Midgley said it deplored A2's handling of the hiring and stepping down of Hrdlicka.
She knew A2 was a "worldwide company" when she took on the job, he said.
"It should not have come as a surprise that there was going to be a lot of travelling.
"The A2 board must be held to account. If there are any outstanding payments, other than base salary to the resignation date, then the board must use every legal avenue to deny them to Hrdlicka," he said.
"We would expect the A2 board to have had a catch-all 'board discretion' clause in the contract that will allow this. If not, this in itself is a glaring omission."
It was disappointing there were confidentiality provisions in relation to her departure, he said.
"'Confidentiality' is a very convenient excuse in these situations and may obscure other problems that shareholders have a right to know. As it stands shareholders will have every right to wonder if their money is disappearing into a confidential black hole."

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/farming/118044514/a2-milk-appoints-interim-chief-executive

[Beagle]

I think once the full reality sets in as to just how much she has pulled the wool over the eyes and ripped off shareholders, myriads of pitchforks will be located in sheds all over the place.

"Milked" is exactly the right adjective. She has pulled shareholders teats so hard they're red raw. No worries, Geoffrey will give shareholders much kinder treatment at the milkshed.

[bull....]

Shareholders Association chief executive Michael Midgley said it deplored A2's handling of the hiring and stepping down of Hrdlicka.
She knew A2 was a "worldwide company" when she took on the job, he said.
"It should not have come as a surprise that there was going to be a lot of travelling.
"The A2 board must be held to account. If there are any outstanding payments, other than base salary to the resignation date, then the board must use every legal avenue to deny them to Hrdlicka," he said.
"We would expect the A2 board to have had a catch-all 'board discretion' clause in the contract that will allow this. If not, this in itself is a glaring omission."
It was disappointing there were confidentiality provisions in relation to her departure, he said.
"'Confidentiality' is a very convenient excuse in these situations and may obscure other problems that shareholders have a right to know. As it stands shareholders will have every right to wonder if their money is disappearing into a confidential black hole."

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/farming/118044514/a2-milk-appoints-interim-chief-executive

the afr article is very informative , its the board not jane

[Balance]

Shareholders Association chief executive Michael Midgley said it deplored A2's handling of the hiring and stepping down of Hrdlicka.
She knew A2 was a "worldwide company" when she took on the job, he said.
"It should not have come as a surprise that there was going to be a lot of travelling.
"The A2 board must be held to account. If there are any outstanding payments, other than base salary to the resignation date, then the board must use every legal avenue to deny them to Hrdlicka," he said.
"We would expect the A2 board to have had a catch-all 'board discretion' clause in the contract that will allow this. If not, this in itself is a glaring omission."

Two perspectives
It was disappointing there were confidentiality provisions in relation to her departure, he said.
"'Confidentiality' is a very convenient excuse in these situations and may obscure other problems that shareholders have a right to know. As it stands shareholders will have every right to wonder if their money is disappearing into a confidential black hole."

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/farming/118044514/a2-milk-appoints-interim-chief-executive


Hearn insisted the board was right behind Hrdlicka’s strategy to ramp up marketing spending to help build the brand on the ground in China

But where Hrdlicka has been prepared to sacrifice margin to get there, it appears that the board feels less sure about that part of the plan.

https://www.afr.com/chanticleer/behind-hrdlicka-s-outsing-at-a2-milk-20191209-p53i2b


the bull was right .. the board got cold feet and has lost the plot

Fascinating how AFR has a very different perspective to the pitchfork brigade ready to lynch Jane!

So who's right?

[silu]

the afr article is very informative , its the board not jane

Which makes the Board seem a bit incompetent.

[bull....]

Which makes the Board seem a bit incompetent.

ya . have to remember it was geoff that wanted jane as ceo not the board. the boards got cold feet with her strategy s/h will pay long term for there mistake

[Balance]

ya . have to remember it was geoff that wanted jane as ceo not the board. the boards got cold feet with her strategy s/h will pay long term for there mistake

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/ATM/345669/313611.pdf

Nice enough package for Geoff - interesting that the bonus is entirely at discretion of Board.

[silu]

ya . have to remember it was geoff that wanted jane as ceo not the board. the boards got cold feet with her strategy s/h will pay long term for there mistake

I will have to rethink my investment in A2 Milk then. As a long term investor I agreed with Jayne's strategy if they want to grow the business. We don't have many businesses that technically could operate in every market on the planet so we need a Board that has a vision and the strength to execute.

[sb9]

ya . have to remember it was geoff that wanted jane as ceo not the board. the boards got cold feet with her strategy s/h will pay long term for there mistake

I pretty much doubt if the decision to hire Jayne was entirely up to Geoff. He probably liked her credentials and endorsed her based on what she offered at the time of interview and further discussions.

Having said that the Board need to make sure that they don't screw things up again.

[Beagle]

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/ATM/345669/313611.pdf

Nice enough package for Geoff - interesting that the bonus is entirely at discretion of Board.

Best thing about that is his term is indefinite. Maybe he will get a second wind of energy at his age and keep running the company ?
He a wealthy man and probably bored ****less with his retirement already. There's only so many drinks you can enjoy at the 19th hole of golf courses, (so to speak), before a driven man looks to get his teeth into the next challenge.

[bull....]

I pretty much doubt if the decision to hire Jayne was entirely up to Geoff. He probably liked her credentials and endorsed her based on what she offered at the time of interview and further discussions.

Having said that the Board need to make sure that they don't screw things up again.

geoff wanted her and the board didnt want to endorse her at the hire . since it was geoff company board would have done what he wanted at the time

[RTM]

Best thing about that is his term is indefinite. Maybe he will get a second wind of energy at his age and keep running the company ?
He a wealthy man and probably bored ****less with his retirement already. There's only so many drinks you can enjoy at the 19th hole of golf courses, (so to speak), before a driven man looks to get his teeth into the next challenge.

I've been retired sort of since 58 and never got bored yet. Never.
Take care not to attribute what might be your attributes to others !
I doubt he's been sitting on his hands.

[couta1]

I've been retired sort of since 58 and never got bored yet. Never.
Take care not to attribute what might be your attributes to others !
I doubt he's been sitting on his hands. I know you like fishing so if you lived in Wellington you would be bored cause you would get very few days at this time of the year when you could go out in any small craft.

[Balance]

I will have to rethink my investment in A2 Milk then. As a long term investor I agreed with Jayne's strategy if they want to grow the business. We don't have many businesses that technically could operate in every market on the planet so we need a Board that has a vision and the strength to execute.

https://www.ig.com/au/news-and-trade-ideas/a2-milk-share-price-collapses-6--as-ceo-steps-down-191209

"Tellingly, in an A2 investor briefing also released this morning, the company's CFO David Hearn stressed that the company will 'target an EBITDA margin of at least 30% in the medium term.'

A goal the Board views as achievable, without much detriment to growth, he added."

And there you have it - the board disagreed with Jane and believes that growth and high margins can go together.

Who is right?

[Beagle]

In other words the board felt Jayne was playing much to fast and loose with marketing and related human resource cost, which is what I have been suggesting for a long time now. EPS growth was much faster under Geoffrey Babbage's leadership and that's all that really matters in my opinion.

I think the Board is right.

[winner69]

https://www.ig.com/au/news-and-trade-ideas/a2-milk-share-price-collapses-6--as-ceo-steps-down-191209

"Tellingly, in an A2 investor briefing also released this morning, the company's CFO David Hearn stressed that the company will 'target an EBITDA margin of at least 30% in the medium term.'

A goal the Board views as achievable, without much detriment to growth, he added."

And there you have it - the board disagreed with Jane and believes that growth and high margins can go together.

Who is right?

Who is right you ask ...I say Jayne will be proved right.

Most on this thread (those invested) seemed to say that increased marketing was the way to go even if ebitda margins suffered a little. One or two were even excited taking that course of action.

Seems a few have different views now.

[longy]

From what I have read so far it seemed to me that were some disagreement or different point of views between the board and the CEO.

[winner69]

Hearn’s profile on A2 website says he resides in the UK

Over here on an extended stint?

[winner69]

She presided as a senior partner for a very long time at Russell McVeagh which has been in the news many times in recent years for the wrong reasons.
Before anyone puts her on a pedestal they should read this. https://www.nzlawyermagazine.co.nz/news/russell-mcveagh-faces-the-music-252073.aspx
Personally I think its extremely disappointing that a senior female law partner could not have done more for her junior female staff who are widely reported to have been subjected to a completely unacceptable culture within that firm. The senior partners are directly responsible for setting the tone of the corporate culture within the firm.

Recent Director appointment was Pip

Wonder if she had anything to do with current events?

[Baa_Baa]

Who is right you ask ...I say Jayne will be proved right.

Most on this thread (those invested) seemed to say that increased marketing was the way to go even if ebitda margins suffered a little. One or two were even excited taking that course of action.

Seems a few have different views now.

Agree, and we're only talking about a small few %, this is almost a 2 billion$ PA company with 1/2 a bill in the bank and some folks get heir knickers in a twist worrying about a couple of hundy mill in marketing costs into opening the two largest markets in the world!

Anyway, she's gone burger. Have to live in the present, the CEO is dead, long live the CEO. Geoff can trim the marketing costs, fire a few talking heads management buy-in's from Jaynes hiring, turn a decent profit, put the SP back on an even keel ... and hopefully set the company up for a 10 bagger from here.

Actually, it's the 10 bagger from here that Jayne saw that the Board may not have, or maybe Geoff who's in the Boards pocket. But keep the conservative shareholders happy and we'll see $20 soon enough. Maybe not $200, but give it time.

She's gone. God is back. All is good. The non-holders can pile in when this current weakness bottoms, and long holds can suck up a few more, then everyone will be happy with their $20 SP in due course. Then a new CEO will come along and everyone will doubt the wisdom of the Board who obviously ****ed up this time.

Get to $200! Go Board, do it. Don't live in the moment, live in making the making the future .. prosperous.

[winner69]

Agree, and we're only talking about a small few %, this is almost a 2 billion$ PA company with 1/2 a bill in the bank and some folks get heir knickers in a twist worrying about a couple of hundy mill in marketing costs into opening the two largest markets in the world!

Anyway, she's gone burger. Have to live in the present, the CEO is dead, long live the CEO. Geoff can trim the marketing costs, fire a few talking heads management buy-in's from Jaynes hiring, turn a decent profit, put the SP back on an even keel ... and hopefully set the company up for a 10 bagger from here.

Actually, it's the 10 bagger from here that Jayne saw that the Board may not have, or maybe Geoff who's in the Boards pocket. But keep the conservative shareholders happy and we'll see $20 soon enough. Maybe not $200, but give it time.

She's gone. God is back. All is good. The non-holders can pile in when this current weakness bottoms, and long holds can suck up a few more, then everyone will be happy with their $20 SP in due course. Then a new CEO will come along and everyone will doubt the wisdom of the Board who obviously ****ed up this time.

Get to $200! Go Board, do it. Don't live in the moment, live in making the making the future .. prosperous.

Gross Margins are improving and very healthy

[Beagle]

Geoffrey Babbage built this company up from nothing, absolutely nothing. He presided over many years of exceptionally strong growth in sales and earnings per share and some people have made exceptional returns from holding shares while he was at the helm. ( I am very happy with my tenure as a shareholder).

Frankly, I am amazed that there is so much loyalty to Jayne on here who has done nothing but throw tremendous amounts of marketing resource, (which judging by results achieved seems to have been very poorly targeted and largely ineffective), and enjoyed nothing but slowing growth in top line sales and dramatically slower growth in eps. Almost right from the start the excuses started flowing, the game has changed, the low hanging fruit have been picked etc etc etc.

She was a very poor hire and has added very little to the business. I have consistently said this for quite some time and it would appear the board have been of the same view for quite some time too.

When will people accept that running a third rate budget carrier with truly appalling customer satisfaction ratings has nothing whatsoever in common with building a premium brand dairy food business ? What is so hard to understand about that ? The cultural fit was poor right from the start and things obviously deteriorated when she brought her girlfriends in who obviously infused the company with more of JetStar's "winning" culture.

I suspect there has been a lot of conflict within senior management circles and the board have had enough of her throwing money around in a scattergun manner at any form of marketing and simply hoping some of it works. The company was growing top line sales and eps at vastly greater rates when Geoffrey Babbage was in charge. This is an indisputable historical fact. I was not game to reinvest in ATM with Jayne in charge. Its back on my radar now.

[couta1]

Not much loyalty over at Hotcopper, an almost unanimous scathing appraisal of her time and actions as CEO and exactly the opposite feelings toward the return of Geoff.

[Beagle]

Not much loyalty over at Hotcopper, an almost unanimous scathing appraisal of her time and actions as CEO and exactly the opposite feelings toward the return of Geoff.

Good leaders make results, poor leaders make excuses, it's as simple as that. Any person can come in and treble the marketing budget, hire a bunch of mates adding even more cost and then blame the mediocre performance on a range of factors like the game has changed. Why on earth some on here think she was some sort of marketing and growth guru when results achieved suggest the exact opposite, is beyond my comprehension. I guess people have to believe in something.
I believe in top line and eps growth, these are the KPI's that really matter. The growth rate in both of these slowed dramatically under her "leadership" and that's an indisputable fact.

The fact that she's gone immediately suggests this was highly acrimonious between her and the board and their relationship has been severely strained for quite some time. Talk of her not being cognisant of the travel requirements and health issues is just a window dressing this and is really very disingenuous in my opinion.

Shareholders association's very strongly worded opinion, (seldom seen one so strongly worded), suggests the board simply stuffed up badly in hiring her and should come clean and admit it.

[tomm]

Not much loyalty over at Hotcopper, an almost unanimous scathing appraisal of her time and actions as CEO and exactly the opposite feelings toward the return of Geoff.
Some guy name Leon sent me a private msg and kinda telling me to shutup and stop bulls ATM. I think he is the same guy who was looking for a handle of $11 Sp for A2 in Hotcopper about amonth ago before the AGM , probably got frustrated because with all of that the SP is still far away from his Dream Handle .. some one please tell this to Hotcopper A2's thread or Smuglex at Hotcopper please... hahahahah....

[tomm]

I will put John Key for the role. Who agree , give me a rep !

[winner69]

Interim CEO is BABIDGE

We should spell his name correctly

[Apathy]

Ok so I need to be upfront and admit I do have some serious insider information on the whole situation.

Problems started in her first 4 weeks - my insider tells me that she thought she was working for the other milk company and so the entire performance related remuneration thing was a complete shock.

Unfortunately things didn't get better when she realized she was not working for Fonterra and she sought independent mediation to support her position that lack of work ethic let alone performance was in fact an industry standard at her level.

Apparently if she had been able to unload shares faster she would have been gone but on top of that she was struggling to find another employer who would pay for the prior employers future performance bonus......

Only upside is the 'The Bab' is back.

[Oberon]

Some guy name Leon sent me a private msg and kinda telling me to shutup and stop bulls ATM. I think he is the same guy who was looking for a handle of $11 Sp for A2 in Hotcopper about amonth ago before the AGM , probably got frustrated because with all of that the SP is still far away from his Dream Handle .. some one please tell this to Hotcopper A2's thread or Smuglex at Hotcopper please... hahahahah....

Hold up. Leon sent you a PM here? Yikes.

[winner69]

Mighty good performance by Jayne at the ASM considering she knew she was in for the chop

A trouper to the end

[winner69]

Shareholders Association’s Midgley described A2's board as "naive and excessively generous".

I tend to agree. They threw cash at her faster than what Jayne threw at marketing and growth

I think we have a problem here

[winner69]

Don’t be surprised if there is a ‘strategic withdrawal’ from the US ....a la UK

[couta1]

Mighty good performance by Jayne at the ASM considering she knew she was in for the chop

A trouper to the end Yeah right, I think you meant to say "A Fleecer to the end"

[Ggcc]

Ok so I need to be upfront and admit I do have some serious insider information on the whole situation.

Problems started in her first 4 weeks - my insider tells me that she thought she was working for the other milk company and so the entire performance related remuneration thing was a complete shock.

Unfortunately things didn't get better when she realized she was not working for Fonterra and she sought independent mediation to support her position that lack of work ethic let alone performance was in fact an industry standard at her level.

Apparently if she had been able to unload shares faster she would have been gone but on top of that she was struggling to find another employer who would pay for the prior employers future performance bonus......

Only upside is the 'The Bab' is back.
Interesting, but can she be that naive to think it was Fonterra she was going to work for

[Raz]

Don’t be surprised if there is a ‘strategic withdrawal’ from the US ....a la UK

It has certainly been a 18 month misstep and it does take time for a company to pivot with all the previous new hires, in key roles, to be reconsidered by who the new CEO ends up being. New hires that follow/associated with a CEO is actually very common, they usually do not move on as quick as a departing CEO. An Australasian company taking on the US and China markets with a winning strategy is a big ask concurrently. The hardest part is having the key people to give it a fair shake. I don't see the key people in place and it does require more than just the right CEO.

[mfd]

Don’t be surprised if there is a ‘strategic withdrawal’ from the US ....a la UK

Last reported us revenue was up around 100% on the previous year, they've got the product into well over 10,000 stores including Walmart, Kroger's and Costco, have just launched a new product, and are reporting double digit in-store sales growth. Not to mention they have a war chest running into the hundreds of millions. I think they'll let it run for a while yet

[bull....]

Mr Hearn said Ms Hrdlicka was a ''change agent'' who had been aggressively pursuing the execution of a strategy

"She had ruffled some feathers from time to time as she made changes

this is the biggie

there would now be more focus on preserving profit margins and less on chasing market share.

https://www.afr.com/companies/retail/a2-sinks-after-hrdlicka-quits-20191209-p53i1c

wow hearn stuffed it hrdlicker was going for market share thru aggressive marketing spend and hearn says stuff the growth lets preserve margin. wow is this a growth company anymore?

[winner69]

Mr Hearn said Ms Hrdlicka was a ''change agent'' who had been aggressively pursuing the execution of a strategy

"She had ruffled some feathers from time to time as she made changes

this is the biggie

there would now be more focus on preserving profit margins and less on chasing market share.

https://www.afr.com/companies/retail/a2-sinks-after-hrdlicka-quits-20191209-p53i1c

wow hearn stuffed it hrdlicker was going for market share thru aggressive marketing spend and hearn says stuff the growth lets preserve margin. wow is this a growth company anymore?








Appears instos got to the Board

Instos are a danger ....generally only worried about the short term and don’t have the patience to see a medium to long term vision/strategy play out

Don’t under estimate the influence that UBS has over A2’s future

[longy]

Appears instos got to the Board

Instos are a danger ....generally only worried about the short term and don’t have the patience to see a medium to long term vision/strategy play out

Don’t under estimate the influence that UBS has over A2’s future

Iit probably going to save the company some 5 mil plus as well.. "Hrdlicka's abrupt departure ensures she'll probably lose 410,099 a2 performance rights, on Monday worth $5.7 million"

[Ggcc]

Iit probably going to save the company some 5 mil plus as well.. "Hrdlicka's abrupt departure ensures she'll probably lose 410,099 a2 performance rights, on Monday worth $5.7 million"
Do you think a golden handshake would not have occurred?

[winner69]

Last reported us revenue was up around 100% on the previous year, they've got the product into well over 10,000 stores including Walmart, Kroger's and Costco, have just launched a new product, and are reporting double digit in-store sales growth. Not to mention they have a war chest running into the hundreds of millions. I think they'll let it run for a while yet

How many $m though ....and a drag on that very important margin eh

[Oliver Mander]

I really hope not. US is shaping well, a key reason for at least some of the forward P/E ratio.

[mfd]

How many $m though ....and a drag on that very important margin eh

Half year expected to be 27 million, currently significantly smaller than the China business but huge potential. This will be 110% up on the pcp. I'd be very disappointed if they turned away from the US at this time.

[Balance]

Appears instos got to the Board

Instos are a danger ....generally only worried about the short term and don’t have the patience to see a medium to long term vision/strategy play out

Don’t under estimate the influence that UBS has over A2’s future

There is definitely more to the situation than Jane quitting because she was unprepared for the amount of traveling required to do the job.

Come on - she is a change agent, highly regarded in her previous roles and was head-hunted out of Qantas by ATM to lead the company to its next phase of growth.

And the next phase of growth strategy put in place by her involves US (in place of UK) and greater emphasis on China (no additional travel required).

Looks to me like it is a case of the instos and in turn, the board getting cold feet over the growth strategy indeed.

I was one of those spooked by the heavy spend in the US as part of the growth strategy - the US being a graveyard of many a NZ companies' growth ambitions. But that's just me.

Meanwhile, I am with W69 - we are seeing some on this forum who were keen supporters of the growth strategy under Jane now turning personal on her - not a good look.

[longy]

Do you think a golden handshake would not have occurred?

Yes it already has apparently. It will be announced later date to the public. So did she get the boot? I am just wondering.

[bull....]

Appears instos got to the Board

Instos are a danger ....generally only worried about the short term and don’t have the patience to see a medium to long term vision/strategy play out

Don’t under estimate the influence that UBS has over A2’s future

your probably right , some instos want short term share price performance to boost there own returns at any cost. even if it is to the detriment of the company long term.

its easier to defend a big market share when you have no big competitors yet seriously in the space than to try to defend a smaller market share against bigger and more resourced companies when they agressively pursue the space.

[Balance]

Iit probably going to save the company some 5 mil plus as well.. "Hrdlicka's abrupt departure ensures she'll probably lose 410,099 a2 performance rights, on Monday worth $5.7 million"

Jane joined on 16 July 2018 when ATM's sp was $10.75 - it is now $14.62, was $15.15 before the shock announcement.

That's 36% up or $2.92 billion increase in market capitalization.

Contrary to whatever others may think, I think she deserved every cent of what she was paid - it is less than 1% of the wealth created under her term.

The Board needs to explain better the circumstances of her departure - something smells very badly.

[couta1]

Yes it already has apparently. It will be announced later date to the public. So did she get the boot? I am just wondering. She was rolled for sure but anyway no point wasting anymore energy over spilt milk, its onward and upward as they say with a proven/trustworthy Captain at the helm, next big piece of news is hopefully inclusion into the ASX 50 which means the sp wont be staying down for too much longer.

[couta1]

Jane joined on 16 July 2018 when ATM's sp was $10.75 - it is now $14.62.

That's 36% up or $2.92 billion increase in market capitalization.

Contrary to whatever others may think, I think she deserved every cent of what she was paid.

The Board needs to explain better the circumstances of her departure - something smells very badly. Lol ,but if she had never joined A2 the sp would likely be near $20 by now.

[bull....]

its not normal to have a great company so heavily shorted , 9% of the company is now shorted and has increase 2% in just the last few weeks. so some people are betting this company has lost the plot big time.

[Balance]

Lol ,but if she had never joined A2 the sp would likely be near $20 by now.

Or it could be $10.00.

She has her fan base in the Australian institutional investors' market.

Point is, she has done her job - it is a really bad look for those who supported her growth strategy to be putting the boot in now.

Bad bad look. :t_down:

Let's be critical and examine what the Board has done and why they have done it - and what's the strategy going forward.

Being objective here - I am on the sidelines now.

[winner69]

The wonders of modern global communication and travel

Board has 1 based in UK (Chair), one based in Australia, 1 based in China and 2 in NZ

Nice cosy chats

[bull....]

Lol ,but if she had never joined A2 the sp would likely be near $20 by now.

lol if the company going to sacrifice some growth for margin the pe would be more likely to re rate down as the market adjusts future growth to lower rates

[winner69]

t_j’s mate Chelsea quoted in stuff yesterday

Chelsea Leadbetter, senior equity analyst at Forsyth Barr, said it was difficult to know the fulls ins and outs, "but having Geoff back is obviously a good thing".[B]Analysts had struggled to understand some of the strategic comments coming out of the company.

Chelsea (and others) have not been doing their job properly

[Balance]

t_j’s mate Chelsea quoted in stuff yesterday

Chelsea Leadbetter, senior equity analyst at Forsyth Barr, said it was difficult to know the fulls ins and outs, "but having Geoff back is obviously a good thing".[B]Analysts had struggled to understand some of the strategic comments coming out of the company.

Chelsea (and others) have not been doing their job properly

Our PEB lady is back?

Hope she has grown wiser and more independent from the Forsyth Barr 'be onside with our corporate clients where the big fees are ' culture!

[couta1]

its not normal to have a great company so heavily shorted , 9% of the company is now shorted and has increase 2% in just the last few weeks. so some people are betting this company has lost the plot big time. I see through your daily shorting rant, newbies and nervous holder ignore this daily downramping bull****, shorters will burn again in due course.

[bull....]

I see through your daily shorting rant, newbies and nervous holder ignore this daily downramping bull****, shorters will burn again in due course.

is it any different to daily bullish rants? anyway in time barring short term moves we will know who is right the 9% shorting the stock or the rest

ive written the date post down so i can re post it in the future lol

[Balance]

is it any different to daily bullish rants? anyway in time barring short term moves we will know who is right the 9% shorting the stock or the rest

ive written the date post down so i can re post it in the future lol


I see through your daily shorting rant, newbies and nervous holder ignore this daily downramping bull****, shorters will burn again in due course.

And we are non the wiser as to why Jayne left so abruptly - NBR writes that Chairman is very tight-lipped when questioned.

[Beagle]

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/118056824/queen-of-cream-a2-chief-executive-jayne-hrdlickas-18month-reign

No wonder she looks smug, shareholders have been thoroughly "milked".

[Balance]

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/118056824/queen-of-cream-a2-chief-executive-jayne-hrdlickas-18month-reign

No wonder she looks smug, shareholders have been thoroughly "milked".

Repeat:

Jane joined on 16 July 2018 when ATM's sp was $10.75 - it is now $14.62, was $15.15 before the shock announcement.

That's 36% up or $2.92 billion increase in market capitalization since she took the helm.

Contrary to whatever others may think, I think she deserved every cent of what she was paid - it is less than 1% of the wealth created under her term.

[Bjauck]

And we are non the wiser as to why Jayne left so abruptly - NBR writes that Chairman is very tight-lipped when questioned. The "more travelling" than anticipated seemed a feeble reason. What did she expect of with a company such as A2 milk?

[Balance]

The "more travelling" than anticipated seemed a feeble reason. What did she expect of with a company such as A2 milk?

Exactly.

Note that there’s a confidentiality clause in the settlement between Jayne and ATM - the release yesterday of her ‘agreeing to leave’ was obviously a PR piece after much to and fro between lawyers and a settlement sum.

[Beagle]

Repeat:

Jane joined on 16 July 2018 when ATM's sp was $10.75 - it is now $14.62, was $15.15 before the shock announcement.

That's 36% up or $2.92 billion increase in market capitalization since she took the helm.

Contrary to whatever others may think, I think she deserved every cent of what she was paid - it is less than 1% of the wealth created under her term.

Okay, lets go there mate. Here's how I see it. I know others will have a different point of view and that's fine.
Its an extremely volatile share so I think any analysis of the share price over her tenure should be based on a 90 day VWAP to smooth out the very volatile nature of the share price. For example in February 2018 it hit $14.70 in intra day trading so it all depends upon your frame of reference.
Looking at the chart for the last 2 years I would infer an approximate 90 day VWAP of about $12 before she was appointed and approximately a $14 90 day VWAP in her last 3 months.

If you smooth out the volatility it could easily be argued she added nothing as 14/12 = 16.7% gain in 18 months and in that period the NZX50 went up approx. 25%.

Any analysis of her performance whether its based on spot prices or VWAP must be measured in the context of the NZX50 as its clear with the substantial decline in interest rates in the last 2 years PE multiples have expanded.

I think she created nothing and simply built upon the momentum that was already clearly evident in the business under Geoffrey Babbage's excellent leadership.
It is abundantly clear and an undeniable historical fact that sales and eps growth slowed considerably (compared to previous rates of growth) under her tenure.

I argue she created no value under her term and any attempt to justify her remuneration based on a percentage of value created is spurious at best and conceptually fundamentally flawed without a comparison to NZX50 relative performance.

I'm going to leave it at that.

[Balance]

Okay, lets go there mate.
I argue she created no value under her term and any attempt to justify her remuneration based on a percentage of value created is spurious at best and conceptually fundamentally flawed without a comparison to NZX50 relative performance.

I'm going to leave it at that.

Which, Beagle, is fine.

What is highly objectionable is as W69 pointed out, some posters putting the boot in now after praising her strategy to high heavens previously - high growth strategy is ok with lower margins, look at the long term etc etc. Adds nothing to a proper assessment of the situation which warrants proper examination.

Not meaning you of course.

Increasing margins in the short term is easy - just cut back spending.

There's a big price to be paid in future though as many a company has found when they cut back spending on R&D, promotion and marketing, brand building and upgrading personnel.

Whirlpool comes to mind.

[mfd]

It's virtually inconceivable that the company could have continued growing at the previous breakneck speed when it has grown so large. Growth was always going to slow down, and I've been quite happy with progress over Jane's tenure. I sold down a few yesterday but A2 remains one of my largest holdings, I hope that this doesn't mean the company is going to reign in the aggressive expansion outlined recently.

[t.rexjr]

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/118056824/queen-of-cream-a2-chief-executive-jayne-hrdlickas-18month-reign

No wonder she looks smug, shareholders have been thoroughly "milked".

That's a lot of cream. Quite filling... But when it came to fulfilling the role... Not so keen...

[winner69]

Maybe the Board looked at the H120 forecast and said hells bells only 30% revenue growth on pcp and if we’re lucky 18% ebitda growth (compared to revenue growing 40% plus in last couple of years). That means in relative terms H1 is a shocker - worst for some time.

Jayne - your strategy not working that well - instos not happy - your words not turning into reality - time to go

Jeez H220 better be a boomer or else FY20 won’t be reflecting the intent of this ‘strategic growth’

Question - if the strategy they agreed to prosecute is only delivering 30% revenue growth and 20% ebitda growth isn’t something wrong.

I’m feeling like t_j’s mate Chelsea - rather confused

[Beagle]

With Marketing it must be carefully targeted, planned and executed. Scattergun approaches can be analogous to throwing money to the wind and tens of millions can easily be wasted. Marketing low cost third rate airline seats that potentially almost anyone might buy is very different to building brand awareness of a high end dairy company that only a small percentage of customers might buy.

Throwing Jayne into this was like taking someone off the lot of a Turners Car yard that specialised in disposing of end of life vehicles and appointing them as CEO for Mercedes-Benz New Zealand. Some appointments were always destined to fail and were never a good fit from the outset.

HLG have a good disciplined approach where they're targeting social media and digital channels. Very smart operators when it comes to marketing spend.

[couta1]

How are your shorting mates going today bull? Must be feeling a bit of chafing heat I reckon.PS-Amazing how my 160k down yesterday has nearly reversed, well actually not.

[Ted2]

Aussies liking Geoff's resurrection by the looks.

Don't believe her departure is anything to do with the strategy. Things have been tracking well, and the strategy makes sense. Besides the board signed it off and clearly agreed.

The wording "......has agreed to step down from her role....." is pretty clear - she was pushed. We may never know exactly why, but relationships are likely the main reason.

She may well be a smart and good CEO, but it has appeared from the start that she is far more about Jayne than she is about anything else.

[winner69]

A2 Milk wanted a change agent but was rattled by Hrdlicka's speed

https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/a2-milk-wanted-a-change-agent-but-was-rattled-by-hrdlicka-s-speed-20191209-p53i5k.html

Oldies couldn’t hack the pace I reckon

[bull....]

How are your shorting mates going today bull? Must be feeling a bit of chafing heat I reckon.PS-Amazing how my 160k down yesterday has nearly reversed, well actually not.

like you not sweating the small moves. time will tell who was right jane or hearn.

[bull....]

A2 Milk wanted a change agent but was rattled by Hrdlicka's speed

https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/a2-milk-wanted-a-change-agent-but-was-rattled-by-hrdlicka-s-speed-20191209-p53i5k.html

Oldies couldn’t hack the pace I reckon

look at hearns face says it all lol

[Beagle]

A2 Milk wanted a change agent but was rattled by Hrdlicka's speed

https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/a2-milk-wanted-a-change-agent-but-was-rattled-by-hrdlicka-s-speed-20191209-p53i5k.html

Oldies couldn’t hack the pace I reckon

Share price reaction to her strategy tells you it wasn't just the board that wanted a more carefully measured approach.

[Beagle]

look at hearns face says it all lol

Hearn looks very stern...sorry folks, couldn't help myself.

[couta1]

like you not sweating the small moves. time will tell who was right jane or hearn. Actually I'm quite relaxed, at times like this I keep myself amused by selling some for a loss and buying back more cheaper(Only got 50 extra shares today) If you dont believe me ask Beagle if I sweat the small moves as you say.

[Beagle]

Actually I'm quite relaxed, at times like this I keep myself amused by selling some for a loss and buying back more cheaper(Only got 50 extra shares today) If you dont believe me ask Beagle if I sweat the small moves as you say.

Coutts is a wire haired Terrier, bred super tuff. Eats bull meat for breakfast and bear meat for lunch and dinner, washed down with A2 milk and Canterbury creme of course :D

[bull....]

Actually I'm quite relaxed, at times like this I keep myself amused by selling some for a loss and buying back more cheaper(Only got 50 extra shares today) If you dont believe me ask Beagle if I sweat the small moves as you say.

is that a2 milk affecting you adversly , why would you sell some for a loss for a laugh lol

[winner69]

Share price reaction to her strategy tells you it wasn't just the board that wanted a more carefully measured approach.

How do you come to that conclusion me old mate.

[couta1]

is that a2 milk affecting you adversly , why would you sell some for a loss for a laugh lol I thought the benefit of the strategy was blatantly obvious. Lol

[Beagle]

How do you come to that conclusion me old mate.

After release of FY19 results and explanation that future EBITDA margin would be in the late 20% region the share price tanked a few dollars.
After the FY19 annual meeting wherein the revised strategy of a higher targeted EDITDA targeted margin was articulated, the share price recovered a few dollars.
I think its reasonable to conclude that on a weighted average basis, shareholders were uncomfortable with her strategy.

[couta1]

The shorters probably got the inside word that Jayne was on her way out so they piled in, but what they didnt know was that Geoff was coming back, the bonfire has been lit and inclusion into the ASX 50 will be like petrol being poured on top.

[see weed]

Looks like a strong close in Auss tonight. And welcome back Beagle:t_up:.

[Raz]

Looks like a strong close in Auss tonight. And welcome back Beagle:t_up:.

still issues with strategy will not been gone tomorrow, they will be compromising on margin into the US given who they are dealing with, that’s a clear cut case. have the feeling still plenty of money to be made as shareholders yet like Xero not make it in the US and really not become a true world class multinational, shame given the rewards that should have come from that.

[see weed]

The a2 yo yo. Only a few cents away from preannouncement sp. You just can't keep a good cow down.

[see weed]

The a2 yo yo. Only a few cents away from preannouncement sp. You just can't keep a good cow down.
Just gone passed preannouncement sp. Go you little cowy:).

[Southern_Belle]

Mr Market says ..... Jayne Who??

[hogie]

Mr Market says ..... Jayne Who??


Obviously smart shareholders knew that Herdlicker was milking it ...

[Balance]

https://www.shortman.com.au/stock?q=A2M

Feeling the burn ...

[couta1]

Hasn't made the ASX50 this time.

[Beagle]

Maybe Jayne could go back to JetStar ? https://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/travel-troubles/118165827/flying-jetstar-in-australia-this-weekend-read-this

[see weed]

Hasn't made the ASX50 this time.

Never mind, their loss, but am enjoying the 10c plus gain every day:cool:.

[see weed]

Maybe Jayne could go back to JetStar ? https://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/travel-troubles/118165827/flying-jetstar-in-australia-this-weekend-read-this
How would you feel being on an airline who forgets to put the landing gear down (THE WHEELS):eek2: :D.

[tomm]

first time I see this


Time
First Traded
Time
Last Traded
Price
Volume
Change
Value
Number
of Trades


4:10:54 pm
4:14:47 pm
1466
4,627,141
1
$67,833,887
89


3:59:32 pm
3:59:51 pm
1465
1,499
1
$21,960
8

[Balance]

first time I see this


Time
First Traded
Time
Last Traded
Price
Volume
Change
Value
Number
of Trades


4:10:54 pm
4:14:47 pm
1466
4,627,141
1
$67,833,887
89


3:59:32 pm
3:59:51 pm
1465
1,499
1
$21,960
8



Could be covered option expiry crossings.

[tomm]

Read this
Jayne Hrdlicka and the a2 formula that didn’t quite work
Insiders say the former CEO was going at a million miles an hour from day one and ‘ruffled a few feathers’ along the way.
When Hrdlicka arrived at a2 Milk in July 2018 as a ''change agent'', she moved quickly to put her stamp on the business.
She installed her former employer – management consultancy Bain & Co –as a key adviser within a month of her arrival, replacing Chris Titler, who owned a small consultancy and had advised Babidge and Hearn for much of the previous decade.
Hearn says she "ruffled a few feathers" along the way, which is expected as a new CEO takes the reins and implements change. Investors and analysts were not impressed with the $NZ20 million-odd ($18.9 million) in consulting fees spent during 2019, nor did they like the profit margin outlook at the full-year results in August. The stock fell 13 per cent on the day, hitting a six-week low despite a2 meeting its 2019 full-year guidance.
The sale of about 357,000 shares valued at nearly $4 million within a few months of taking the job had also caused angst. At the time of that sale, Bell Potter analyst Jonathan Snape criticised the action, as Hrdlicka sold down her entire shareholding in the company, excluding options. She was not the only one selling, however; in total, 16 directors and executives sold about 3 million shares.
https://www.afr.com/companies/manufacturing/jayne-hrdlicka-and-the-a2-formula-that-didn-t-quite-work-20191213-p53iw8#:~:targetText=Jayne%20Hrdlicka%20and%20the% 20a2%20formula%20that%20didn't%20quite,few%20feath ers'%20along%20the%20way.&targetText=A%20very%20early%20announcement%20on,ab out%20Hrdlicka's%20exit%20stunned%20investors.

[couta1]

At the end of the day she was a wrong fit for the role with divided attention.

[winner69]

Gaynor suggests her exit fee could be $20m

Thats quite a lot eh ..... but they did tell her to leave

[couta1]

Gaynor suggests her exit fee could be $20m

Thats quite a lot eh ..... but they did tell her to leave If that turned out to be true it would show what a despicable individual she is.

[Ggcc]

Gaynor suggests her exit fee could be $20m

Thats quite a lot eh ..... but they did tell her to leave
That seems like crazy money golden handshake to me. Have you got a link for this?

[waikare]

There should be no had out, she is leaving because she was unable to do the job she was paid to do.

I am sure she would have read the job description with a full understanding of what the duties entailed.

[winner69]

That seems like crazy money golden handshake to me. Have you got a link for this?

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12293704

Apparently they $20m mentioned in this article

[Beagle]

If that turned out to be true it would show what a despicable individual she is.

If that turned out to be true the board would look completely incompetent. The clue to the size of the payout is the board reconfirmed the forecast after she was pushed.
A claim it was that size looks highly speculative to me.

[macduffy]

ABC's take on the matter.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-12-16/a2-milk-jayne-hrdlicka-steps-down/11801672?section=business

[winner69]

Maybe all this is what happens with a Board that is more global than local.

[tomm]

Trump Signs Off on China Trade Deal to Avert December Tariffs.President Donald Trump signed off on a phase-one trade deal with China, averting the Dec. 15 introduction of a new wave of U.S. tariffs on about $160 billion of consumer goods from the Asian nation, according to people familiar with the matter.

[couta1]

ABC's take on the matter.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-12-16/a2-milk-jayne-hrdlicka-steps-down/11801672?section=business The author is a serial downramper and unreliable.

[davflaws]

I don't know anything about his history, but his grasp on the benefits of A2 Milk is fairly limited.

[longy]

I don't know anything about his history, but his grasp on the benefits of A2 Milk is fairly limited.

I don't really know what is the truth and weather she is a victim as the article made it out to be... But this is what I will know for next time around. When a CEO sells all of the his/her shares... OMG that is a really loud alarm bell is ringing.

[silu]

If I would have listened to my scientist mate who told me that the A2 milk claim is bogus and the science will never be proven then I wouldn't have my own home.

[Balance]

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/ATM/346085/314091.pdf

So this says that Geoff Babidge sold off all of his ATM shares after he resigned from ATM in July 2018?

[RTM]

If I would have listened to my scientist mate who told me that the A2 milk claim is bogus and the science will never be proven then I wouldn't have my own home.

And your mate may be right !
Amazing, well done.

[dobby41]

I don't know anything about his history, but his grasp on the benefits of A2 Milk is fairly limited.

I thought he was about right - some people benefit from drinking A2 rather than A1/A2.
Of course they don't have to drink milk at all.
Try pushing miracles and you'd be on shaky ground.

[Ggcc]

I thought he was about right - some people benefit from drinking A2 rather than A1/A2.
Of course they don't have to drink milk at all.
Try pushing miracles and you'd be on shaky ground.
The majority of people who are self diagnosed lactose intolerant, Gluten intolerant and anything else intolerant generally do not suffer from what they think they suffer from. We are all guilty of self diagnosing with the help of Google and if this so called "placebo" A2 works, great for us. I know of many who could not drink milk and now can after drinking A2. It maybe the placebo effect it may not, as long as people believe that they can drink A2 milk, I am happy to be part of this share.

[tomm]

If I would have listened to my scientist mate who told me that the A2 milk claim is bogus and the science will never be proven then I wouldn't have my own home.
The big boys do not want to prove it. But the people has A2's products proven to themselves. I am one of the people.

[Balance]

The majority of people who are self diagnosed lactose intolerant, Gluten intolerant and anything else intolerant generally do not suffer from what they think they suffer from. We are all guilty of self diagnosing with the help of Google and if this so called "placebo" A2 works, great for us. I know of many who could not drink milk and now can after drinking A2. It maybe the placebo effect it may not, as long as people believe that they can drink A2 milk, I am happy to be part of this share.

Fonterra had the opportunity of the century to launch A2 milk 20 years ago.

They turned the opportunity down and as there say, the rest is history.

Mind you, ATM is probably lucky Fonterra did not get involved - it would have become another Fonterra disaster.

[RTM]

Eventually it will come down to the efficacy of the product.
If the A2 science is correct, then a lot more producers will get on the band wagon and it will be a level playing field.
If it is not correct...then A2 becomes just another producer of high quality milk products....again a level playing field.
Either way the outcome will ultimately be similar.
I guess that's what Jayne was trying to do...to differentiate A2 from the others....irrespective of the efficacy.
Good luck all, never held, entertaining to watch.

[tomm]

Eventually it will come down to the efficacy of the product.
If the A2 science is correct, then a lot more producers will get on the band wagon and it will be a level playing field.
If it is not correct...then A2 becomes just another producer of high quality milk products....again a level playing field.
Either way the outcome will ultimately be similar.
I guess that's what Jayne was trying to do...to differentiate A2 from the others....irrespective of the efficacy.
Good luck all, never held, entertaining to watch.
If you go to China or some others Asian countries , you will see there are tons of different Coca cola copy brands, but people still want to pay and drink the Coca cola.

[RTM]

If you go to China or some others Asian countries , you will see there are tons of different Coca cola copy brands, but people still want to pay and drink the Coca cola.

Yep, agree ...and I have an iPhone. Eventually may be a long time. And Jayne's marketing efforts may extend it further.

[tomm]

Yep, agree ...and I have an iPhone. Eventually may be a long time. And Jayne's marketing efforts may extend it further.
She got paid for her jobs , and she was out of control on spending and it does effect A2 on the IBITDA, may be a temper of a woman. Glad GB is back and take control, looking forward for the a solid steady company to invest , no where else : ATM.NZ

[silu]

She got paid for her jobs , and she was out of control on spending and it does effect A2 on the IBITDA, may be a temper of a woman. Glad GB is back and take control, looking forward for the a solid steady company to invest , no where else : ATM.NZ

What the hell? temper of a woman? What year is this?

[tomm]

What the hell? temper of a woman? What year is this?
Spending uncontrollable.
Whatever new thinking were invented , nobody can escape the nature of this universe , the different between men and women, the bad and the good always exist. By saying that mean , there are certain things which men can't do which women can and opposite.

[silu]

Spending uncontrollable.
Whatever new thinking were invented , nobody can escape the nature of this universe , the different between men and women, the bad and the good always exist. By saying that mean , there are certain things which men can't do which women can and opposite.

and that somehow is a female trait?

[dodgy]

and that somehow is a female trait?

"me precious".
d

[tomm]

and that somehow is a female trait?

According to the record , comparing between GB and JH , and regarding to the result, yes it is.
I said " maybe..." , it is probably one of the trait if you insist.

[Blue Skies]

Spending uncontrollable.
Whatever new thinking were invented , nobody can escape the nature of this universe , the different between men and women, the bad and the good always exist. By saying that mean , there are certain things which men can't do which women can and opposite.

There's no polite way to say this, but what an incredibly ignorant stupid & demeaning comment.
We don't need that kind of sexist rubbish here & it needs to be called out.

[sb9]

https://www.shortman.com.au/stock?q=a2m

Short position keeps going up, now at 9.17%, they sure are betting on something to falter..

[dobby41]

https://www.shortman.com.au/stock?q=a2m

Short position keeps going up, now at 9.17%, they sure are betting on something to falter..

What happens from here? How long do they have to close the shorts or does that just depend on their deal with whomever they borrow from?
At some stage someone must lose.

Are shorts brought (or sold I suppose) at a price that we can see? Would that give an idea on what they want to see the price pushed down to?
Just thinking out loud really as I struggle to get my head around it.

[tomm]

What happens from here? How long do they have to close the shorts or does that just depend on their deal with whomever they borrow from?
At some stage someone must lose.

Are shorts brought (or sold I suppose) at a price that we can see? Would that give an idea on what they want to see the price pushed down to?
Just thinking out loud really as I struggle to get my head around it.
I think at the moment they are trying to stop the rocket SP and wait for the next February announcement they are betting on it, eventual some Shorts may never be recovered only goes up.

[tomm]

What happens from here? How long do they have to close the shorts or does that just depend on their deal with whomever they borrow from?
At some stage someone must lose.
Are shorts brought (or sold I suppose) at a price that we can see? Would that give an idea on what they want to see the price pushed down to?
Just thinking out loud really as I struggle to get my head around it.
Morgan Stanley increased their holding from 5.53% to 6.55%
I think at the moment they are trying to depress the rocket SP and wait for the next February announcement they are betting on it, eventual some Shorts may never be recovered only goes up.

[see weed]

Aussi A2M closed up after our close. And ATM a bit over sold on our close. Maybe a 5c to 10c jump on our open tomorrow.

[couta1]

Aussi A2M closed up after our close. And ATM a bit over sold on our close. Maybe a 5c to 10c jump on our open tomorrow. Big options expiry today on the Aussie open so could get thumped down then index rebalance tomorrow which could send the price either way and then the quiet period starts.

[tomm]

Why ASX not open today??? ANyone knows ?

[BlackPeter]

Why ASX not open today??? ANyone knows ?

No panic - it will open at 10 am Sydney time (or noon NZ) - as any other working day.

Your clock being a bit too fast?

[dompf]

Why ASX not open today??? ANyone knows ?

We are from the future in NZ it opens in 30 minutes NZ time or 10am Sydney

[tomm]

No panic - it will open at 10 am Sydney time (or noon NZ) - as any other working day.

Your clock being a bit too fast?
Thanks mate , I was just for a moment lost my memory :))

[couta1]

Thanks mate , I was just for a moment lost my memory :)) Too much P mate, stay off that stuff.:cool:

[Lewylewylewy]

Nz stats release reports milk powder exports up about 25% so far, mainly to china. Atm looking good.

[see weed]

Big options expiry today on the Aussie open so could get thumped down then index rebalance tomorrow which could send the price either way and then the quiet period starts.
Is the quiet period from now to end of January?

[tomm]

Too much P mate, stay off that stuff.:cool:
I drink A2 milk every morning , must be the case lol :))

[see weed]

Is the quiet period from now to end of January?
If that is right, ATM gain about $2 in last years quiet period:t_up:
:eek2::cool:

[couta1]

If that is right, ATM gain about $2 in last years quiet period:t_up:
:eek2::cool: Lol, daily comparisons are futile with this stock let alone yearly ones. PS-Selling quite a few right now hoping for an index rebalance bargain tomorrow.

[tomm]

Lol, daily comparisons are futile with this stock let alone yearly ones. PS-Selling quite a few right now hoping for an index rebalance bargain tomorrow.
Wise man .

[dabsman]

Too much P mate, stay off that stuff.:cool:

The good thing with P is it is always only 2 sleeps till Christmas...

[see weed]

Lol, daily comparisons are futile with this stock let alone yearly ones. PS-Selling quite a few right now hoping for an index rebalance bargain tomorrow.
Ok couta1 just sold a few thousand on close. Will buy back on rebalance tomorrow:).

[couta1]

Ok couta1 just sold a few thousand on close. Will buy back on rebalance tomorrow:). Lol, I'm not going to say how many I've sold over the last two days so hoping for that rebalance magic to materialize, however if it goes silly the other way we can always dump more, it's only a matter of how many full milk bottles you walk away with at the end of the day, although my milk bottles are always only 2/3 rds full with the milk tax removed.

[bull....]

a2 got a new competitor

New study says sheep's milk easier to digest than cow's milkhttps://www.stuff.co.nz/business/farming/118324066/new-study-says-sheeps-milk-easier-to-digest-than-cows-milk

[BlackPeter]

a2 got a new competitor

New study says sheep's milk easier to digest than cow's milkhttps://www.stuff.co.nz/business/farming/118324066/new-study-says-sheeps-milk-easier-to-digest-than-cows-milk

Probably contains A2 protein as well ...

Actually, while I am not sure whether ATM is currently too dear or too cheap (maybe its just right :)), I think anything which educates consumers that the current staple A1 milk is cr*p must be good for ATM as well.

[tipsy]

Yep, sheep's milk is all A2, so of course it's going to be easier to digest than A1A2 lol

[dobby41]

Yep, sheep's milk is all A2, so of course it's going to be easier to digest than A1A2 lol

For some - I have no issues digesting A1/A2

[tipsy]

For some - I have no issues digesting A1/A2

For sure, the study was done on people that had trouble digesting cow's milk, sheep's milk has been around for a long time already.

[tomm]

Yep, sheep's milk is all A2, so of course it's going to be easier to digest than A1A2 lol
We knew and we all knew, the facts is: sheep milk is hell expensive, not worth it to me because I already got the A2 Milk :))

[couta1]

We knew and we all knew, the facts is: sheep milk is hell expensive, not worth it to me because I already got the A2 Milk :)) Sheep milk is just a fringe product due to being Labour intensive to obtain a fraction of the milk a cow can produce.

[Beagle]

Sheep milk is just a fringe product due to being Labour intensive to obtain a fraction of the milk a cow can produce.

Rumour has it Baa Baa loves it :D

[couta1]

Rumour has it Baa Baa loves it :D When I was shearing we sometimes used to drink the odd bit but mainly played games by pulling the teats and squirting it at each other.:eek2:

[Cadalac123]

A2 milk from a balance sheet perspective is truly a beast of a company. The drop from 18$ was pretty unwarranted imo, and looking forward to hopefully seeing it go beyond that price post-february results (which tbh I don't really see can't be good?)

[see weed]

a2 got a new competitor

New study says sheep's milk easier to digest than cow's milk

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/farming/118324066/new-study-says-sheeps-milk-easier-to-digest-than-cows-milk
Correct me if I'm wrong. I can add to this...Goats milk is also a2... so is all animal milk including human breast milk. Maybe we should start drinking human breast milk. Only cows have the a1 milk variant.

[see weed]

Couta1, what time does this rebalance start?

[couta1]

Couta1, what time does this rebalance start? On the match price at 4.45pm.

[tomm]

On the match price at 4.45pm.
So what happen ? will the Sp up or down or not impact by this ?

[couta1]

So what happen ? will the Sp up or down or not impact by this ? Unknowable until the time.

[tomm]

Unknowable until the time.
So what is your suggestion on ATM Couta1?

[see weed]

I predict it will go down and then up again.;)

[pierre]

I predict it will go down and then up again.;)

It may even go down, then sideways, then up again - or possibly up, then down and when it's only half way up it's neither up nor down - or something:D

[couta1]

So what is your suggestion on ATM Couta1? Lol, I cant give you all my trading secrets, I just outlay the possiblities for you and then you must follow your own Gutometer.

[tomm]

Thanks all , Can we still buy after 4'45pm?? Or we just guess a number then put an order with that number in ??

[see weed]

It may even go down, then sideways, then up again - or possibly up, then down and when it's only half way up it's neither up nor down - or something:D
The grand old Duke of York. He had 10,000 cows. He marched them up to the top of the hill to sell as much a2 as could. Then marched them down again to buy as much hay as he would. When they were only halfway up.......:)

[tomm]

The grand old Duke of York. He had 10,000 cows. He marched them up to the top of the hill to sell as much a2 as could. Then marched them down again to buy as much hay as he would. When they were only halfway up.......:)
mannn.. I start to like weed :))) lol

[see weed]

On the match price at 4.45pm.
Well I couldn't wait till match off and decided to jump back in at under 15.40. And possibly more at match off if looking good.

[Onion]

The grand old Duke of York. He had 10,000 cows. He marched them up to the top of the hill to sell as much a2 as could. Then marched them down again to buy as much hay as he would. When they were only halfway up.......:)

A spokesperson of the Duke of York said:


The Duke adamantly denies inappropriate behaviour with cows. Any suggestion that the Duke has rolled with cows in the hay is strongly denied.

[tomm]

Well I couldn't wait till match off and decided to jump back in at under 15.40. And possibly more at match off if looking good.
got a spare weed :t_up:

[mfd]

Buckingham Palace had confirmed these rumours are udderly false.

[couta1]

Well I couldn't wait till match off and decided to jump back in at under 15.40. And possibly more at match off if looking good. Haha I did the same starting at $15.43, got to cover all bases on this one, we are pretty much in synch. PS-Hope you've got your popcorn and glass of A2 with Canterbury Cream ready.

[tomm]

Buckingham Palace had confirmed these rumours are udderly false.
ask weed for a spare one and it will become truth :t_up: lollll

[see weed]

Haha I did the same starting at $15.43, got to cover all bases on this one, we are pretty much in synch. PS-Hope you've got your popcorn and glass of A2 with Canterbury Cream ready.
Got to get more Canta cream this avo. Just bought my last lot of a2 for the year at 15.20, 5 min after Aus opened. Gee it moves fast, talk about the fast and the furious, went to amend the order to 15.10, but in that 30 seconds it had gone down to 15 15 and took me out at 15.20:eek2:.

[couta1]

Got to get more Canta cream this avo. Just bought my last lot of a2 for the year at 15.20, 5 min after Aus opened. Gee it moves fast, talk about the fast and the furious, went to amend the order to 15.10, but in that 30 seconds it had gone down to 15 15 and took me out at 15.20:eek2:. Haha I had an order on at $15.20 also.

[see weed]

Haha I had an order on at $15.20 also.
a2 half year results out in less than 8 weeks or 4weeks after the holidays. We will be laughing all the way to the bank when the sp hits somewhere between $16 and $25:D.

[couta1]

a2 half year results out in less than 8 weeks or 4weeks after the holidays. We will be laughing all the way to the bank when the sp hits somewhere between $16 and $25:D. $17-$18 will do.

[Balance]

https://www.shortman.com.au/stock?q=A2M

Around 5m shares covered since short positions peaked at 9.17% on 11 December but still high at 8.47%.

Here's a perspective on what the shorters are still there :

https://www.ig.com/au/news-and-trade-ideas/as-the-a2-milk-share-price-rebounds--9--of-traders-remain-short-191218

"Some answers may be found in the musings of Citibank analysts, who remain bearish on A2’s prospects. etc etc "

Guess the shooters are prepared to buy the 'long' short game.

Brave souls!

[couta1]

https://www.shortman.com.au/stock?q=A2M

Around 5m shares covered since short positions peaked at 9.17% on 11 December but still high at 8.47%.

Here's a perspective on what the shorters are still there :

https://www.ig.com/au/news-and-trade-ideas/as-the-a2-milk-share-price-rebounds--9--of-traders-remain-short-191218

"Some answers may be found in the musings of Citibank analysts, who remain bearish on A2’s prospects. etc etc "

Guess the shooters are prepared to buy the 'long' short game.

Brave souls! Citi are notorious shorters and game players and anyone following their advice are fools rather than brave.

[tomm]

Another Scientific for A2Milk

https://academic.oup.com/ajcn/advance-article-abstract/doi/10.1093/ajcn/nqz279/5644119?redirectedFrom=fulltext

[dobby41]

Another Scientific for A2Milk

https://academic.oup.com/ajcn/advance-article-abstract/doi/10.1093/ajcn/nqz279/5644119?redirectedFrom=fulltext

Harping back to the science?
The science depends on which science you look at.
ATM didn't do so well in 2002 when they tried to say that A1 (eg 'normal') milk causes type 1 diabetes and heart disease, or autism and schizophrenia - starts to get a bit fringe really.
Empirically it can be shown that A1 can cause gut discomfort in some people whereas A2 doesn't - much more solid ground to rest on.
ATM seems to have pulled back from that - for the good.
Generally running the science line will be a loser for most people - especially with some of the bigger claims (autism etc).

Regarding my comment 'normal' milk - in reality it seems that A2 is normal and A1 was a mutation - just so happens that cows that have it produce better hence the widespread adoption of A1/A2 cows.

A couple of interesting articles
https://www.noted.co.nz/health/health-nutrition/a1-or-a2-milk-which-is-better-for-your-stomach
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A2_milk

[peat]

...when they tried to say that A1 (eg 'normal') milk causes type 1 diabetes and ...

milk does have a lot of sugar so ipso facto...

[carrom74]

NZ HERALD broker picks are out... obviously A2 has been picked by 5 out of 6 brokers. Still some steam left in this beauty. Sea weed- your $18.50 target looks quite near !!

[Cadalac123]

Paid article.. sigh. Want to share a few more details for us haha

[dobby41]

milk does have a lot of sugar so ipso facto...

Milk may do but A2 has less?
Context.

[peat]

Milk may do but A2 has less?
Context.
Nope, same amount of lactose (a sugar).

[dobby41]

Nope, same amount of lactose (a sugar).

Which is my point if you get this into context.
It was claimed that A1 increased diabetes risk which is dubious at best.
This was a reason to use A2 milk.

[winner69]

Hopefully a good start to the new year for ATM on the ASX today

[Baa_Baa]

Hopefully a good start to the new year for ATM on the ASX today

Only A$0.58 above the spike high Feb 2018, so almost two years net sideways for long holders. Been some cracking volatility for momentum traders with medium term horizons, but 'buy and hope' hasn't been such a winner these past couple of years.

[winner69]

Hopefully a good start to the new year for ATM on the ASX today

Not looking that good

Maybe ‘investors’ worried about Babidge retaking the reins at A2 and that 2020 isn’t going to be great year.

[Beagle]

Price parity with the current exchange rate would see ATM down N.Z. 41 cents on our market if it was open. Not a good start for 2020 :eek2:
I doubt they're worried about Geoffrey Babbage, he's a safe pair of hands. Perhaps the market is still worried about how much Jayne and maybe also her mates ? have "creamed" the company for with their exit package(s) ? Material effect on 2020 forecast profit ?

[couta1]

Lol, just the normal tree shaking and game playing, pretty standard pattern with this stock.

[winner69]

Lol, just the normal tree shaking and game playing, pretty standard pattern with this stock.

....volatility ...or revised ratios kicking in

[couta1]

....volatility ...or revised ratios kicking in Volatility mate, revised ratios cant kick in while the big boys are drinking p*** at some random beach.

[winner69]

Volatility mate, revised ratios cant kick in while the big boys are drinking p*** at some random beach.

..wouldn’t care if they’re fighting fires anyway

[NOCASH]

Is today the sign to get in?

[couta1]

Is today the sign to get in? Well it's as cheap as chips anyway so why worry about signs, who knows what the price will be next week? ask Trump if he intends getting down on Twitter.

[winner69]

Well it's as cheap as chips anyway so why worry about signs, who knows what the price will be next week? ask Trump if he intends getting down on Twitter.

I reckon you’ll have a great year trading A2 Couts.

You’ll be able to lower your average price a lot this trading the volatility. I reckon it’ll end the year in the low 1300’s

A2 going to be directionless, lack a strategy etc etc and only have a caretaker CEO. Not a good place to be in for what us seen as a hyper growth company

Might take a few more years than you thought but it’ll be 30 bucks one day - just got to get over this year and next before resetting.

[tomm]

I reckon you’ll have a great year trading A2 Couts.

You’ll be able to lower your average price a lot this trading the volatility. I reckon it’ll end the year in the low 1300’s

A2 going to be directionless, lack a strategy etc etc and only have a caretaker CEO. Not a good place to be in for what us seen as a hyper growth company

Might take a few more years than you thought but it’ll be 30 bucks one day - just got to get over this year and next before resetting.

I am going with the facts : Cash Flows, Strategies, Sales. EBITDA.
The rest are just whistles :)

[Blue Skies]

Wouldn't surprise me if heading towards a home somewhere around 14, halfway between 7 Nov low of 12.39 & 1 Dec high of 15.72
But all guesses on the table with ATM

[couta1]

I am going with the facts : Cash Flows, Strategies, Sales. EBITDA.
The rest are just whistles :) I'm confident enough on this one to walk past the graveyard without needing to whistle.PS-Im in selling for a loss and buying back cheaper mode today, very rarely nothing to do with this stock.

[see weed]

I'm confident enough on this one to walk past the graveyard without needing to whistle.PS-Im in selling for a loss and buying back cheaper mode today, very rarely nothing to do with this stock.
Sold some on open and bought them back this afternoon. Have made a bit over 10k trading this stock since 6/12/19:cool:.

[couta1]

Sold some on open and bought them back this afternoon. Have made a bit over 10k trading this stock since 6/12/19:cool:. Similar here see weed at 12k for me since 6/12/19 but could easily wipe that out on a temporal basis with loss selling if I wanted to.

[couta1]

Sold some on open and bought them back this afternoon. Have made a bit over 10k trading this stock since 6/12/19:cool:. Looks like we bought back too early see weed, just when you think you've worked out the daily trading pattern it turns and does the opposite, still better to be safe aye.PS-Thats what I like about this stock theres never a dull moment and when you think you know it well, you know stuff all.

[winner69]

Looks like we bought back too early see weed, just when you think you've worked out the daily trading pattern it turns and does the opposite, still better to be safe aye.PS-Thats what I like about this stock theres never a dull moment and when you think you know it well, you know stuff all.

Is that because if Trumps latest trick!

[couta1]

Is that because if Trumps latest trick! Yep Iranian tensions.

[see weed]

Looks like we bought back too early see weed, just when you think you've worked out the daily trading pattern it turns and does the opposite, still better to be safe aye.PS-Thats what I like about this stock theres never a dull moment and when you think you know it well, you know stuff all.
No problem over here. Still got 20 blocks under 14.70 and 11 blocks over 14.70 with average price still 417k in the green:). Hope to have all blocks in the green soon after half year report in about 5 or 6 weeks. But may of got stocked up a bit early.

[winner69]

Yep Iranian tensions.

....you weren't to know he was about to start WW3

[Cadalac123]

Not sure why you would sell ATM given the next report is basically a shoe in to spike the share price.. especially with the over-reaction australian investors will contribute.

Solid company at the moment though. Ridiculously good revenues and growth and one of the few companies capitalizing on China's large population. Sky is the limit for now, hopefully there is development of brand power and this becomes a powerhouse in the future. Eitherway short-term I see this as a no brainer hold

[couta1]

Not sure why you would sell ATM given the next report is basically a shoe in to spike the share price.. especially with the over-reaction australian investors will contribute.

Solid company at the moment though. Ridiculously good revenues and growth and one of the few companies capitalizing on China's large population. Sky is the limit for now, hopefully there is development of brand power and this becomes a powerhouse in the future. Eitherway short-term I see this as a no brainer hold Its complicated as they say but we are not really selling any at this point. Lol

[see weed]

Not sure why you would sell ATM given the next report is basically a shoe in to spike the share price.. especially with the over-reaction australian investors will contribute.

Solid company at the moment though. Ridiculously good revenues and growth and one of the few companies capitalizing on China's large population. Sky is the limit for now, hopefully there is development of brand power and this becomes a powerhouse in the future. Eitherway short-term I see this as a no brainer hold
I am holding, but just having a bit of fun and a play around while waiting. My play around is only 1.5% of my holding;). What do you think.... 1.5b to 1.6b revenue at next report:t_up:.

[tomm]

Its complicated as they say but we are not really selling any at this point. Lol
Shorts are in recovering mode :)

[couta1]

No problem over here. Still got 20 blocks under 14.70 and 11 blocks over 14.70 with average price still 417k in the green:). Hope to have all blocks in the green soon after half year report in about 5 or 6 weeks. But may of got stocked up a bit early. Haha I keep things a bit simpler, two large blocks, one on NZX and one on ASX.

[Blue Skies]

....you weren't to know he was about to start WW3

That's going to be a bit of a distraction from impeachment hearings!

[Joshuatree]

Paid article.. sigh. Want to share a few more details for us haha

Here you go FWIW, 5 out of 6, think it was 6 out of 6 last year lol.


10:24Broker Picks ft. My Picks | Top 5 NZ Stocks in 2020 (https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=4&ved=2ahUKEwjHzoWZkOfmAhX54zgGHebPAJkQwqsBMAN6BAgKE AQ&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.youtube.com%2Fwatch%3Fv%3Dm3 6VBN6g3xc&usg=AOvVaw2yVwQU2NDjfFybD2NEgF2f)

[Ggcc]

A nice surprise to see A2 has performed well for someone in the world

https://www.timeslive.co.za/sunday-times/business/2020-01-05-kiwi-dairy-tops-worlds-best-performing-stocks-list-for-2019/

[Dotbond]

Morgan Stanley sold down a few shares by the looks of it.

[see weed]

Morgan Stanley sold down a few shares by the looks of it.
Welcome to sharetrader. Have just bought another lot at 14.74 :eek2:.

[see weed]

Welcome to sharetrader. Have just bought another lot at 14.74 :eek2:.
a bit early again:confused:

[NOCASH]

Panic mode? I am still waiting on the sideline.... will we see high $13's?

[dobby41]

Panic mode? I am still waiting on the sideline.... will we see high $13's?

This thing moves so fast it is hard to catch up or down.

[couta1]

This thing moves so fast it is hard to catch up or down. That's why I trade it both ways, sell for a profit when it goes up and sell for a loss and buy back more cheaper when it goes down if I'm holding at a higher price.

[Dotbond]

Welcome to sharetrader. Have just bought another lot at 14.74 :eek2:.

Thanks see weed.
Made a few ATM trades last month and came out on top. More exciting than being on holiday.

[couta1]

Thanks see weed.
Made a few ATM trades last month and came out on top. More exciting than being on holiday. Dead right, holidays get boring quick unless your sking/snowboarding or the like.

[dobby41]

More exciting than being on holiday.

You really need to have better holidays.

[see weed]

Dead right, holidays get boring quick unless your sking/snowboarding or the like.
Add blokarting and snofing to that list, notice a2m back in the green:).

[longy]

You really need to have better holidays.

Even better when a holiday is paid for by passive dollars.

[Dotbond]

You really need to have better holidays.

Yeah bout that........ next month i'm off to UAE, Jordan, Egypt and Oman for a month. Perfect timing :ohmy:

[dobby41]

Yeah bout that........ next month i'm off to UAE, Jordan, Egypt and Oman for a month. Perfect timing :ohmy:

You wanted excitement?

[Dotbond]

You wanted excitement?
Yep, just not the sort Uncle Sam is dishing up. Riding a camel was all i was thinking about when i handed over my credit card.

[Cadalac123]

This morning def seemed like a good top-up time haha

[sb9]

Hopefully there'll be a trading update later on in the month. Geoff would love to start the new year with a bang under his watch.

[dobby41]

Yep, just not the sort Uncle Sam is dishing up. Riding a camel was all i was thinking about when i handed over my credit card.

Morocco is where you want to be then - safer too.
In the meantime I will wait to see what happens before booking airfares for the next trip to Europe later this year (usually go via Doha which may end up in the thick of it).

[Dotbond]

Morocco is where you want to be then - safer too.
In the meantime I will wait to see what happens before booking airfares for the next trip to Europe later this year (usually go via Doha which may end up in the thick of it).
Love to ride the motorbike through Morocco one day.
Better keep at ATM for a while longer i think :)

[couta1]

I see A2 are donating 200k to the bushfire cause, pretty generous aren't we, perhaps Jayne could match it from her fleecing fund.

[see weed]

I see A2 are donating 200k to the bushfire cause, pretty generous aren't we, perhaps Jayne could match it from her fleecing fund.
Yes we are generous, and a pat on the back to all shareholders. What a funny game this a2 is.Got an order in for 14.57 and not going budge like yesterday. A2 should bring out an ice cream and call it the Jayn Cream Licker in remembrance of the wonderful job Jayne did while with the company.

[couta1]

Yes we are generous, and a pat on the back to all shareholders. What a funny game this a2 is.Got an order in for 14.57 and not going budge like yesterday. A2 should bring out an ice cream and call it the Jayne Cream Licker in remembrance of the wonderful job Jayne did while with the company. How about "Fleecapolitan".

[nizzy]

How about "Fleecapolitan".
Like :)....

[Beagle]

How about "Fleecapolitan".

Rumour has it Geoffrey Babbage has set up a recruitment hotline for applications for the position of the new CEO - 0800MILKUS :)

[sb9]

As NZD inches close to 97c AUD, we might be looking at less spread between ATM and A2M price, bit of a bugger. Looks like Adrian has his job cut out come next OCR review on 12th Feb.

[see weed]

As NZD inches close to 97c AUD, we might be looking at less spread between ATM and A2M price, bit of a bugger. Looks like Adrian has his job cut out come next OCR review on 12th Feb.
What is the ex rate today? for Aussi