ATM - A2 Milk Corporation Limited

[see weed]

Hey couta1! I did very well today, and waited, and jumped in at 14.52, 1c above the low. Yippy yi ya :t_up:.

[couta1]

Hey couta1! I did very well today, and waited, and jumped in at 14 52, 1c above the low. Yippy yi ya :t_up:. Nice one, I'm slowly working my avg price down and gaining more shares, I thought of you when it hit $14.57 as I remember you had an order on at that.

[couta1]

Taking a hit now see weed thanks to Trumps hairbrained idea to take out a a top Iranian military official, he had better start behaving as the US punters wont be impressed with a trodden down stockmarket at the time of his re-election.

[dompf]

Wars not really good for the share market :(

[couta1]

Wars not really good for the share market :( A full scale war in the Middle East would see it decimated.

[kiwico]

A full scale war in the Middle East would see it decimated.

Or even worse (as a uncommonly known fact is that decimated actually means reduced by 10%). :)

[see weed]

A full scale war in the Middle East would see it decimated.
Does that mean the Chinese going to starve there babies from having a2 baby formula. I think it might have the opposite affect and everyone stocks up and strips the shelves bare. Good money to be made in a war. They might send powder milk to the troops.

[TideMan]

Or even worse (as a uncommonly known fact is that decimated actually means reduced by 10%). :)

Well, it did prior to the 19th century when it referred to the selection by lot of every 10th soldier in a unit, who was then killed by his cohorts; but nowadays it means "kill, destroy, or remove a large proportion of", according to my dictionary.

[Balance]

https://www.shortman.com.au/stock?q=A2M

So shorter have covered 10m shares in the last month.

Looking at the sp chart of A2M over the last year, it looks like the shorters would have broken even overall on their positions (average).

Implication?

Whole new ball game in 2020!

[dompf]

Hopefully should see a good day across the market today with the de-escalation of the US vs Iran actions.

Looking forward to February announcements hopefully good year ahead for a2, as been heading sideways for far too long.

[davflaws]

Damn your dictionary sirrah! Onward and upward !

[sb9]

https://www.shortman.com.au/stock?q=A2M

So shorter have covered 10m shares in the last month.

Looking at the sp chart of A2M over the last year, it looks like the shorters would have broken even overall on their positions (average).

Implication?

Whole new ball game in 2020!

I think they will reset after 1H results in Feb. On other note with ever increasing Cash pile (would say it would be at least $700ml now) and under Geoff leadership I'm picking they might look to utilise a part of it towards share buy back of some sort.

[sb9]

From their website 1H results to be announced on 27th Feb (Thu), about month and a bit away.

[see weed]

From their website 1H results to be announced on 27th Feb (Thu), about month and a bit away.
Good one. They running bit late this year, normally around 20th Feb. No worries, a good gain in last 2 days. Just scored some for 14.85 10 min ago. Might be closer to $16 before 27th Feb. and $17 to $20 after 27/2/20;). They make so much more money, it take them an extra week to count it:).

[Beagle]

From their website 1H results to be announced on 27th Feb (Thu), about month and a bit away.

Just over six weeks away and Coutts reckons it'll be $17+
That's more than 13% in six weeks, pretty good. Seems very easy money...what could possibly go wrong :)

[Sideshow Bob]

Just over six weeks away and Coutts reckons it'll be $17+
That's more than 13% in six weeks, pretty good. Seems very easy money...what could possibly go wrong :)

Well Jayne has gone...…

Aussie Open coming up!

[Cadalac123]

Isn't it sad that SML used to follow ATM almost directly stock chart wise.. lets hope SML gets some love this year too.

[Beagle]

Well Jayne has gone...…

Aussie Open coming up!

The Aussie market has already opened :D (yes I know what you are referring too and yes its great Geoff is back but for how long ?)

[winner69]

Good one. They running bit late this year, normally around 20th Feb. No worries, a good gain in last 2 days. Just scored some for 14.85 10 min ago. Might be closer to $16 before 27th Feb. and $17 to $20 after 27/2/20;). They make so much more money, it take them an extra week to count it:).

Need the extra week because this Geoff guy not as sharp as Jayne ....

[Beagle]

Need the extra week because this Geoff guy not as sharp as Jayne ....

Maybe they need the extra week to work out the appalling impact of her grossly excessive exit package...
Hope they don't take the opportunity for the usual bad result trick of making the announcement after the market has closed :ohmy:

[Sideshow Bob]

Maybe they need the extra week to work out the appalling impact of her grossly excessive exit package...
Hope they don't take the opportunity for the usual bad result trick of making the announcement after the market has closed :ohmy:

At least Geoff will be working....not in Melbourne at the Tennis for a couple of weeks.

[winner69]

Maybe they need the extra week to work out the appalling impact of her grossly excessive exit package...
Hope they don't take the opportunity for the usual bad result trick of making the announcement after the market has closed :ohmy:

So the normally nice and clean A2 financials are going to be littered with abnormal extraordinary non-recurring one offs - convenient to hide slowing growth.

We’ll need Snoops to sort it out for us.

[Beagle]

I reckon either Beagle will be easily able to sort that out...assuming I'm in a fit state after trying to decipher OCA's accounts later this month...do you think just over a month will be a long enough recovery period for my brain lol

[winner69]

I reckon either Beagle will be easily able to sort that out...assuming I'm in a fit state after trying to decipher OCA's accounts later this month...do you think just over a month will be a long enough recovery period for my brain lol

Bigger problem will be the year after when they include recruitment and the bribes to get a new hotshot of a CEO.

I fear a year with Geoff as a caretaker of a company with a strategy that’s been thrown out the window will no be a very good year financially (relative to previous expectations that us) and it’ll take the new CEO to get things back on track.

[Beagle]

Biggest problem they have is Geoff is getting older and they won't find another Geoff as good as him no matter who they bribe with whatever.
If he confirmed to the market he was staying on for 5 years I'd buy a decent lot of shares on Monday. Not going to happen though.

Maybe they'll promote one of Jayne's girlfriends she brought over from Jetstar :ohmy:

[percy]

Doubt it.
I don't think they like flying............................................ ......?........................................... .......lol.

[couta1]

So the normally nice and clean A2 financials are going to be littered with abnormal extraordinary non-recurring one offs - convenient to hide slowing growth.

We’ll need Snoops to sort it out for us. I wonder if Snoopy has upgraded his $3 odd valuation of A2 yet, probably downgraded it if truth be known. PS-Leave Snoopy to do his stuff on the HGH and TRA threads, we want to keep it simple over here.

[percy]

I wonder if Snoopy has upgraded his $3 odd valuation of A2 yet, probably downgraded it if truth be known. PS-Leave Snoopy to do his stuff on the HBL and TRA threads, we want to keep it simple over here.

You absolute rotter,...............!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!.......................lol.

[Cadalac123]

I'm sure everyone here has learnt atleast one valuable analysis take away from Snoopy. Arguably the most valuable poster on ST

[couta1]

I'm sure everyone here has learnt atleast one valuable analysis take away from Snoopy. Arguably the most valuable poster on ST My investing and trading methods would be as different and far away from Snoopys as the east is from the west so no would be the answer, but each to their own.

[percy]

I'm sure everyone here has learnt atleast one valuable analysis take away from Snoopy. Arguably the most valuable poster on ST

Yeah Right.!.

Take care.

[Mr Slothbear]

Maybe they'll promote one of Jayne's girlfriends she brought over from Jetstar :ohmy:

I think Peter Nathan would be a very strong fit as CEO.

been heading ANZ division for years, done his time, understands the company, Good communicator, young - er than Geoff, clearly not cut and run material.

time for an internal promotion instead of this ‘global search’

[couta1]

I think Peter Nathan would be a very strong fit as CEO.

been heading ANZ division for years, done his time, understands the company, Good communicator, young - er than Geoff, clearly not cut and run material.

time for an internal promotion instead of this ‘global search’ He has a young family and doesnt want the travel commitments from what I understand.

[pierre]

He has a young family and doesnt want the travel commitments from what I understand.

Better get that sorted early on - not 18 months after commencing the role!

[Balance]

There will be a queue of executives lining up for the role - imagine their eyes widening in wondrous anticipation as they reviewed the package Jayne was able to obtain when confirmed for the role and the even better package she extracted when she left!

So relax - plenty of choices to choose from.

[Baa_Baa]

There will be a queue of executives lining up for the role - imagine their eyes widening in wondrous anticipation as they reviewed the package Jayne was able to obtain when confirmed for the role and the even better package she extracted when she left!

So relax - plenty of choices to choose from.

What "even better package" did Jayne get when she left? I thought those details were withheld, must've missed that somehow.

[winner69]

What "even better package" did Jayne get when she left? I thought those details were withheld, must've missed that somehow.

Speculation ..it was a ‘confidential’ agreement

Gaynor speculated exit package was about $20m

[Blue Skies]

Speculation ..it was a ‘confidential’ agreement

Gaynor speculated exit package was about $20m



omg, after such a brief stint that does not inspire confidence. How could they have got it so wrong!

[macduffy]

omg, after such a brief stint that does not inspire confidence. How could they have got it so wrong!

Inferior negotiating skills? To put it kindly.

:ohmy:

[Beagle]

Speculation ..it was a ‘confidential’ agreement

Gaynor speculated exit package was about $20m

If it was that much it would have to show up somewhere in the forthcoming financial statements. Interestingly after jettisoning "the milker" the company was quick to reiterate its forecast.

[couta1]

Speculation ..it was a ‘confidential’ agreement

Gaynor speculated exit package was about $20m Lol if it turned out to be that much there would be a tribe of disgruntled shareholders armed with pitchforks and molotov cocktails ready to pay her a visit. PS- I'd book a flight to join them.

[macduffy]

Lol if it turned out to be that much there would be a tribe of disgruntled shareholders armed with pitchforks and molotov cocktails ready to pay her a visit. PS- I'd book a flight to join them.

In which case you'll need to look for the other parties to this "agreement" and visit them as well.

[Cadalac123]

Man UBS sure love trading a2 milk..

[couta1]

Man UBS sure love trading a2 milk.. Serious milkers and manipulators of the stock.

[Rowdy Flat]

Man UBS sure love trading a2 milk..

They provide shorts.

[couta1]

They provide shorts. They provide shorts and trade the stock themselves.

[Rowdy Flat]

They provide shorts and trade the stock themselves.
New Chief Financial Officer - has been the last 7 years as Chief Financial Officer roles with the Qantas Group, including at... Jetstar.

[Lewylewylewy]

They need to find new places to advertise for jobs, other than the JetStar cafe wall

[Rowdy Flat]

They need to find new places to advertise for jobs, other than the JetStar cafe wall

Considerable number of management changes in the last 18 months. That's not necessarily a bad thing... or is it?

[winner69]

Considerable number of management changes in the last 18 months. That's not necessarily a bad thing... or is it?

Bad ....and a company with a ‘strategy’ that the Board not completely bought in to.

[allfromacell]

As it mentions in the first line of the announcement this was already flagged in September, so nothing new to see here.

Edit: Looks like the Chief Technical Officer is also stepping down, I don't think that's been previously mentioned... Certainly a lot of changes in the past 6 months.

Just double checked and looks like the CTO was one of Jayne's hires and and hasn't been around long.. Perhaps Geoffrey's doing a cleanup.

[winner69]

As it mentions in the first line of the announcement this was already flagged in September, so nothing new to see here.

Edit: Looks like the Chief Technical Officer is also stepping down, I don't think that's been previously mentioned... Certainly a lot of changes in the past 6 months.

What about the Technical guy leaving

[pierre]

Perhaps it's now the old broom sweeping clean!

[winner69]

Perhaps it's now the old broom sweeping clean!

That Phil fella has only been there 9 months

Suppose Melanie will be next to be sweep away

[Dotbond]

Not sure who uses DirectBroking, but i saw ATM Sell price of 13.88 when the day was closing. Just about had a heart attack. It's showing 14.75 now. Must have been an anomaly in the system.

[couta1]

Not sure who uses DirectBroking, but i saw ATM Sell price of 13.88 when the day was closing. Just about had a heart attack. It's showing 14.75 now. Must have been an anomaly in the system. Just normal match price swings before close, nothing unusual.

[Beagle]

Best to get rid of all Jayne's friends. Hiring her was fundamentally flawed, (as suggested by some dog on here right from the very outset), so all her hires are highly likely to be flawed so its up to Geoff to get the old broom and sweep away all the rubbish from the floor :) Suppose that involves more confidential settlements ?

[carrom74]

I hope Susan is retained as CMO. Wonder why she quit at the first place.Hired by Geoff and resigned during Jaynes tenure.
https://www.cmo.com.au/article/668579/massasso-depart-cmo-role-a2-milk-company/

[Lewylewylewy]

Because of the nature of top level positions, you've gotta wonder if this clear out is due to targets not being met. Im interested to read the next report.

[Beagle]

Because of the nature of top level positions, you've gotta wonder if this clear out is due to targets not being met. Im interested to read the next report.

Share price is languishing when the market is close to a peak. One could make a case that's not a good sign but I am sure my friend Coutts will be along any minute to assure us $17+ is just around the corner :) My thoughts are that Geoff will have his work cut our getting rid of all the dead wood Jayne bought on board and the cleanout cost won't be without significant cost or disruption. Good stock to own long term though but still a bit above my assessment of fair value.

[mfd]

Because of the nature of top level positions, you've gotta wonder if this clear out is due to targets not being met. Im interested to read the next report.

Guidance was reaffirmed just over a month ago, so that seems unlikely unless things have gone dramatically wrong over Christmas.

[Ggcc]

Share price is languishing when the market is close to a peak. One could make a case that's not a good sign but I am sure my friend Coutts will be along any minute to assure us $17+ is just around the corner :) My thoughts are that Geoff will have his work cut our getting rid of all the dead wood Jayne bought on board and the cleanout cost won't be without significant cost or disruption. Good stock to own long term though but still a bit above my assessment of fair value.
I believe I am with Couta on this and $17+ is on the cards around the corner (within 6 months). People are just that people. Yes a great leader will be followed by the masses, but everyone is replaceable. If that great leader leaves, someone else will step up and others will follow.

The corporate game is ruthless. You did not meet your targets and you could be gone. Best get rid of the bad grape, before the bunch starts rotting.

[winner69]

Guidance was reaffirmed just over a month ago, so that seems unlikely unless things have gone dramatically wrong over Christmas.

It was only half year guidance and that was only for ebitda to be about $250m which is only 15% higher than last year .....pathetic earnings growth compared to the past

And then there’s the spectre of much reduced margins in H2 —- going from 31%/32% in H1 to 29%/30% for the full year is some effort.

[Beagle]

I believe I am with Couta on this and $17+ is on the cards around the corner (within 6 months). People are just that people. Yes a great leader will be followed by the masses, but everyone is replaceable. If that great leader leaves, someone else will step up and others will follow.

The corporate game is ruthless. You did not meet your targets and you could be gone. Best get rid of the bad grape, before the bunch starts rotting.

No that can't be right as Coutts assures me $17+ is coming next month just like Percy says 40 cents for PAZ is coming in March / April.

Interesting investor psychology question to ponder. Could it be that when you own a truck load of stock one's ability to be objective flies out the window ?

[Cadalac123]

The full year report will have the impact of 11/11 sales, and I think they will be in the right direction. The only thing that could go wrong is guidance not being met.

The thing about A2 Milk is its always traded on speculation and never on any solid insider trading. In that sense it's somewhat "rationale". I can't imagine market sentiment being negative to a rise in earnings even if its not at the same acceleration as prior years.

[winner69]

The full year report will have the impact of 11/11 sales, and I think they will be in the right direction. The only thing that could go wrong is guidance not being met.

The thing about A2 Milk is its always traded on speculation and never on any solid insider trading. In that sense it's somewhat "rationale". I can't imagine market sentiment being negative to a rise in earnings even if its not at the same acceleration as prior years.

Won’t H1 to December have impact of 11/11 in it?

[Ggcc]

No that can't be right as Coutts assures me $17+ is coming next month

Interesting investor psychology question to ponder. Could it be that when you own a truck load of stock one's ability to be objective flies out the window ?

I agree that people can be wrong and blinded when they see what others can't. Religious people have it, its called faith. lol

[winner69]

Why is it that A2 hardly mention in their reports these big things like 11/11 and Singles Day and Black Friday

[Balance]

I agree that people can be wrong and blinded when they see what others can. Religious people have it, its called faith. lol

In other words, confirmation bias.

Religious people see suffering orphans in Syria and thank God that they are not the ones suffering. The suffering orphans thank God that they are alive rather than dead like their parents?

[couta1]

No that can't be right as Coutts assures me $17+ is coming next month just like Percy says 40 cents for PAZ is coming in March / April.

Interesting investor psychology question to ponder. Could it be that when you own a truck load of stock one's ability to be objective flies out the window ? Yep end of Feb, early march $17 is possible, this stock can move quickly in both directions as you know, you wouldn't have a SUMwhat objective problem yourself at times now would you. Lol

[Beagle]

Yep end of Feb, early march $17 is possible, this stock can move quickly in both directions as you know, you wouldn't have a SUMwhat objective problem yourself at times now would you. Lol

LOL I keep individual stocks to under 10% so have a SUMwhat higher chance of trying to stay objective :p

[Balance]

https://www.shortman.com.au/stock?q=A2M

12m shorted shares covered since 11 December 2019 - would have expected the sp to hold steady with that kind of buying but sp has actually been slipping a little.

Relatively low turnover in shares traded today (429k shares only so far on ASX) - suggest market is going to break out but in which direction!

[couta1]

https://www.shortman.com.au/stock?q=A2M

12m shorted shares covered since 11 December 2019 - would have expected the sp to hold steady with that kind of buying but sp has actually been slipping a little.

Relatively low turnover in shares traded today (429k shares only so far on ASX) - suggest market is going to break out but in which direction! With it entering oversold territory and a result just around the corner the direction is obvious, low volume boredom selling soon to come to an end.

[dompf]

With it entering oversold territory and a result just around the corner the direction is obvious, low volume boredom selling soon to come to an end.

It would be good to see a different direction other than sideways for the last 6 months - but with a caretaker CEO despite his pedigree im hoping this stock doesnt turn in to a drift car for 2020.

[couta1]

It would be good to see a different direction other than sideways for the last 6 months - but with a caretaker CEO despite his pedigree im hoping this stock doesnt turn in to a drift car for 2020. Manipulation pattern very much in play last couple of days even at low volume, I can smell it a mile off.

[Cadalac123]

As per my prior post. If you look at the guidance for 1H its actually reasonable. Say they reach 800$mil - the amount required in 2H is actually extremely reasonable to beat last years FY result.

Historically 2H has always been better than 1H. I think it's reasonable to assume that will be the case this time to, as it has been for the past 3 years. It therefore isn't unreasonable to assume that the FY revenue will be 1.6 +/- 0.2 ..

Obviously I could be wrong, but statistically I think I'm not making a horribly gross projection.

ATM demonstrates clear gap phenomenon on report announcements. I think the shareprice was a safe buy around 12-13$. The liklihood of the interim and the full year report being worse than last year is extremely low unless a one off occurs.

[couta1]

As per my prior post. If you look at the guidance for 1H its actually reasonable. Say they reach 800$mil - the amount required in 2H is actually extremely reasonable to beat last years FY result.

Historically 2H has always been better than 1H. I think it's reasonable to assume that will be the case this time to, as it has been for the past 3 years. It therefore isn't unreasonable to assume that the FY revenue will be 1.6 +/- 0.2 ..

Obviously I could be wrong, but statistically I think I'm not making a horribly gross projection.

ATM demonstrates clear gap phenomenon on report announcements. I think the shareprice was a safe buy around 12-13$. The liklihood of the interim and the full year report being worse than last year is extremely low unless a one off occurs. Result will be at least good, current price is still cheap IMO but as always a lot of weak hands are easily shaken out of this stock(Holders with no real vision or conviction) PS-This ain't no hyped up tech company making little or zero profit.

[winner69]

Cadalac - not suggesting ebitda will be less than last year (H1 and FY)

But it won’t be anything like the 40% growth we have been used to.

H1 ebitda likely to be +15% on last year ...ouch for a super growth company

Full year +15% to +20% —- as Couts says ‘at least good’ but to some ‘not very good’

[limmy]

As per my prior post. If you look at the guidance for 1H its actually reasonable. Say they reach 800$mil - the amount required in 2H is actually extremely reasonable to beat last years FY result.

Historically 2H has always been better than 1H. I think it's reasonable to assume that will be the case this time to, as it has been for the past 3 years. It therefore isn't unreasonable to assume that the FY revenue will be 1.6 +/- 0.2 ..

Obviously I could be wrong, but statistically I think I'm not making a horribly gross projection.

ATM demonstrates clear gap phenomenon on report announcements. I think the shareprice was a safe buy around 12-13$. The liklihood of the interim and the full year report being worse than last year is extremely low unless a one off occurs.

The "one off" could be the severance package for the former CEO ?

[macduffy]

Result will be at least good, current price is still cheap IMO but as always a lot of weak hands are easily shaken out of this stock(Holders with no real vision or conviction) PS-This ain't no hyped up tech company making little or zero profit.

"Weak hands" spell opportunity?

:cool:

[Cadalac123]

I mean how much could they really pay her? lets say 20m, still okay I guess.
I mean we are all guessing here, but I feel its just as easy to be pessimistic of growth
as it is to be hopeful for it.

[Lewylewylewy]

I guess the questions are, what sort of pe covers +15% growth, what will be the projections in the next announcement and will people believe them (and therefore what will the forward pe be)?

[Balance]

https://www.ig.com/en-ch/news-and-trade-ideas/a2-milk-share-price--where-next-as-another-key-leader-departs--200113

Market is certainly taking note of key executive departures from ATM in recent times.

[Snow Leopard]

I guess the questions are, what sort of pe covers +15% growth, what will be the projections in the next announcement and will people believe them (and therefore what will the forward pe be)?

Assuming a steady 15% pa growth and no dividend then the answer is 17.7.

This is basic theory stuff but the market never gives a stuff for theory.

[couta1]

https://www.ig.com/en-ch/news-and-trade-ideas/a2-milk-share-price--where-next-as-another-key-leader-departs--200113

Market is certainly taking note of key executive departures from ATM in recent times. People will see what they want to see, removing dead wood is the starting place in any pruning job and that started with the removal of Calamity Jayne.

[Lewylewylewy]

Assuming a steady 15% pa growth and no dividend then the answer is 17.7.

This is basic theory stuff but the market never gives a stuff for theory.

If that's the case, the SP could be getting close to $8, assuming the market follows this pe and suspects similar yearly growth.

Probably this won't happen.

Probably that market will be promised higher growth and the wind will be behind the sails, and the pe will be higher, and we'll see $17 (same pe and expectations but from the +15% position).

Though, tbh, i think next year I'll be putting my money elsewhere. Great product, just a bit random for me atm.

[couta1]

If that's the case, the SP could be getting close to $8, assuming the market follows this pe and suspects similar yearly growth.

Probably this won't happen.

Probably that market will be promised higher growth and the wind will be behind the sails, and the pe will be higher, and we'll see $17 (same pe and expectations but from the +15% position).

Though, tbh, i think next year I'll be putting my money elsewhere. Great product, just a bit random for me atm. Actually no that $8 figure is nonsense, check out the Danone sp which has a pe of around 15.

[Lewylewylewy]

Actually no that $8 figure is nonsense, check out the Danone sp which has a pe of around 15.

Sorry im confused. Isn't danone a different company? Or are you saying it could get rerated to a pe of 15?

Looking at the last announcement in November... the one that starts with management's names each printed separately on a page with a picture of kids as the background... that's the one with jaynes name on the 3rd page, and the kids on her page are laughing and waving goodbye (which really should have been a clue, looking back)... they say basic earnings per share of 39.3c. Add 15% for the year, makes 45.2c, times 17.7 makes $8. I know it's rough and sloppy, but it's just a hypothetical guess based on the 15% growth that's being batted around on this site.

Anyway, my point wasn't to do any predictions. My point was to highlight that hypothetically, if they have continued performance below expectations it could mean a rerate if the market stops believing Outlook statements.

As I think I said, my prediction is also $17.

[Ggcc]

Sorry im confused. Isn't danone a different company? Or are you saying it could get rerated to a pe of 15?

Looking at the last announcement in November... the one that starts with management's names each printed separately on a page with a picture of kids as the background... that's the one with jaynes name on the 3rd page, and the kids on her page are laughing and waving goodbye (which really should have been a clue, looking back)... they say basic earnings per share of 39.3c. Add 15% for the year, makes 45.2c, times 17.7 makes $8. I know it's rough and sloppy, but it's just a hypothetical guess based on the 15% growth that's being batted around on this site.

Anyway, my point wasn't to do any predictions. My point was to highlight that hypothetically, if they have continued performance below expectations it could mean a rerate if the market stops believing Outlook statements.

As I think I said, my prediction is also $17.
I would say that if you are only looking at PE ratios FPH would also need a cheaper share price, although it is a very solid company. A2 could become that solid company if SML get through their court case, if the CEO did not leave so abruptly and if people started to believe the story. If those things were not in the foreseeable future ATM is a very solid company and could demand a premium on the share price. We will look back in a few years and wonder who the heck was Jayne and look at a glorious share price.........

[couta1]

Sorry im confused. Isn't danone a different company? Or are you saying it could get rerated to a pe of 15?

Looking at the last announcement in November... the one that starts with management's names each printed separately on a page with a picture of kids as the background... that's the one with jaynes name on the 3rd page, and the kids on her page are laughing and waving goodbye (which really should have been a clue, looking back)... they say basic earnings per share of 39.3c. Add 15% for the year, makes 45.2c, times 17.7 makes $8. I know it's rough and sloppy, but it's just a hypothetical guess based on the 15% growth that's being batted around on this site.

Anyway, my point wasn't to do any predictions. My point was to highlight that hypothetically, if they have continued performance below expectations it could mean a rerate if the market stops believing Outlook statements.

As I think I said, my prediction is also $17. My point being that just because a company matures and has less growth and a lower pe doesnt mean the sp is not going to continue to increase especially once a dividend is initiated.

[dompf]

My point being that just because a company matures and has less growth and a lower pe doesnt mean the sp is not going to continue to increase especially once a dividend is initiated.

This is how I feel for EOM Feb to find out what they are doing with that pile of money - share buy back l, dividend or an acquisition. Having almost a billion dollars in the bank is only really helping the banks.

[Ted2]

I'm a long time holder since 50c days and have a very significant holding. I have followed A2 news voraciously and am used to the swings in price. However I have two questions that some market gurus may be able to help with.

1. For some time NZ has pushed the price up significantly in the morning, only for the Ockers to push it back down in the afternoon. Is this just Ocker shorters? Do Ockers just not believe as much as NZ'ers do? Is it just some other form of manipulation? Appreciate any thoughts.

2. Re Calamity Jane - has anyone actually heard any actual info on her exit? She was surely pushed, but I'm surprised I haven't read or heard anything, even rumours, about what actually happened. If she resigned (as the spin indicated), then she wouldn't have to be paid out anything apart from share promises. If she was pushed then the remainder of her contract probably had to be paid out to get rid of her. I'm interested in how this '$20M' figures keeps popping up.

Ted

[couta1]

I'm a long time holder since 50c days and have a very significant holding. I have followed A2 news voraciously and am used to the swings in price. However I have two questions that some market gurus may be able to help with.

1. For some time NZ has pushed the price up significantly in the morning, only for the Ockers to push it back down in the afternoon. Is this just Ocker shorters? Do Ockers just not believe as much as NZ'ers do? Is it just some other form of manipulation? Appreciate any thoughts.

2. Re Calamity Jane - has anyone actually heard any actual info on her exit? She was surely pushed, but I'm surprised I haven't read or heard anything, even rumours, about what actually happened. If she resigned (as the spin indicated), then she wouldn't have to be paid out anything apart from share promises. If she was pushed then the remainder of her contract probably had to be paid out to get rid of her. I'm interested in how this '$20M' figures keeps popping up.

Ted ASX sets the price with volume kiwis follow, no real volume on the NZX in the morning so the keen kiwis bid it up. Re Calamity Jayne, just rumours from the likes of Bryan Gaynor regarding the possible 20 mill otherwise none of us have a clue at this point.

[Balance]

I'm a long time holder since 50c days and have a very significant holding. I have followed A2 news voraciously and am used to the swings in price. However I have two questions that some market gurus may be able to help with.

1. For some time NZ has pushed the price up significantly in the morning, only for the Ockers to push it back down in the afternoon. Is this just Ocker shorters? Do Ockers just not believe as much as NZ'ers do? Is it just some other form of manipulation? Appreciate any thoughts.

2. Re Calamity Jane - has anyone actually heard any actual info on her exit? She was surely pushed, but I'm surprised I haven't read or heard anything, even rumours, about what actually happened. If she resigned (as the spin indicated), then she wouldn't have to be paid out anything apart from share promises. If she was pushed then the remainder of her contract probably had to be paid out to get rid of her. I'm interested in how this '$20M' figures keeps popping up.

Ted

1. Answer lies in the turnover. Fact is that ATM's sp is now driven out of ASX - NZX is but a pathetic follower now of what happens in Oz. Ockers are the ones who believed in ATM - NZers are the ones who have been selling to Ockers!

2. Boeing CEO fired and still left with US$80m package gives an idea of how CEOs packages are structured these days to attract 'the best' talent. Jayne would have negotiated a great package - it was all rah rah rah when she was appointed, remember?

In the same way as her entry was rah rah rah, Jayne's exit really should have been transparently disclosed to the market but since it is not, it is clear imo that she was asked to leave (for whatever reason) and she would have extracted a very high price for a 'mutually acceptable' exit.

Blame the directors and board - not her imo. If ATM had nothing to hide, full disclosure would have been made. Not a good look and that's why here's one shareholder who sold out.

Brian Gaynor does have good contacts so I would think that he will not be too far off the mark.

[couta1]

Jayne has to take responsibility and own her own greed Balance, she was only there 5 mins and rode on the goodwill of what Geoff had already done to build this great company, so morally why would she think she is worth a massive payout? She clearly is a lover of money when she couldn't pay her tax obligations without selling her shares after having been on 8 mill a year prior.

[Balance]

Jayne has to take responsibility and own her own greed Balance, she was only there 5 mins and rode on the goodwill of what Geoff had already done to build this great company, so morally why would she think she is worth a massive payout? She clearly is a lover of money when she couldn't pay her tax obligations without selling her shares after having been on 8 mill a year prior.

She is no different from any high flyer who has been headhunted for a top position - she negotiated a lucrative package which always include golden parachutes etc etc. Remember how the company (directors) came out and defend the selling of shares to pay her tax obligations?

There is no morals in these things as you know - why should the Boeing CEO leave with a package of US$80m when you consider what Boeing under his management did - 2 preventable air crashes which Boeing is directly responsible for.

Nope - ATM directors have been incredibly inept and devious in the disclosures regarding her exit. Something stinks.

[couta1]

She is no different from any high flyer who has been headhunted for a top position - she negotiated a lucrative package which always include golden parachutes etc etc. Remember how the company (directors) came out and defend the selling of shares to pay her tax obligations?

There is no morals in these things as you know - why should the Boeing CEO leave with a package of US$80m when you consider what Boeing under his management did - 2 preventable air crashes which Boeing is directly responsible for.

Nope - ATM directors have been incredibly inept and devious in the disclosures regarding her exit. Something stinks. I think the point is from my viewpoint as a shareholder is she was only ever interested in increasing her own wealth and had no real heart for the company as Geoff has.

[waikare]

She is no different from any high flyer who has been headhunted for a top position - she negotiated a lucrative package which always include golden parachutes etc etc. Remember how the company (directors) came out and defend the selling of shares to pay her tax obligations?

There is no morals in these things as you know - why should the Boeing CEO leave with a package of US$80m when you consider what Boeing under his management did - 2 preventable air crashes which Boeing is directly responsible for.

Nope - ATM directors have been incredibly inept and devious in the disclosures regarding her exit. Something stinks.

Agree something is not quite right with her sudden departure, was it really all the traveling, no doubt time will tell. Ms Herdlicker was and probable still is greedy, out to milk all she could, and didn't she do well, if the figures being quoted are correct.

[Balance]

I think the point is from my viewpoint as a shareholder is she was only ever interested in increasing her own wealth and had no real heart for the company as Geoff has.

And who appointed her?

The very same directors who now fall back on Geoff who stated that he had taken the company as far as he could, retired and sold all of his shares!

I think there is definitely more to the exit than the one way 'blame everything on Jayne' comments on this forum!

[couta1]

And who appointed her?

The very same directors who now fall back on Geoff who stated that he had taken the company as far as he could, retired and sold all of his shares!

I think there is definitely more to the exit than the one way 'blame everything on Jayne' comments on this forum! Yes they made a mistake there for sure, she was a square peg in a round hole.

[Balance]

Yes they made a mistake there for sure, she was a square peg in a round hole.

https://thea2milkcompany.com/newsroom/market-announcements/managing-director-ceo-succession/

Not according to the announcement!

[couta1]

https://thea2milkcompany.com/newsroom/market-announcements/managing-director-ceo-succession/

Not according to the announcement! Haha yeah well we now know that was a load of tripe.

[Balance]

Haha yeah well we now know that was a load of tripe.

Let's see who the next CEO is.

That to me is the appropriate time to reappraise the stock imo - wherever the sp may be.

Meantime, I think it is rather misleading to blame Jayne for just about everything which is not quite right with ATM. It is an iconic company now on the NZX and deserves better assessments.

[couta1]

Let's see who the next CEO is.

That to me is the appropriate time to reappraise the stock imo - wherever the sp may be.

Meantime, I think it is rather misleading to blame Jayne for just about everything which is not quite right with ATM. It is an iconic company now on the NZX and deserves better assessments. Well there isn't much wrong with A2 IMO other than a few wrong appointments and no plan of what to do with the near billion dollar cash pile, the sp has and will be manipulated and controlled by game players to a large extent which has nothing to do with how good a company it is.

[Blue Skies]

Let's see who the next CEO is.

That to me is the appropriate time to reappraise the stock imo - wherever the sp may be.

Meantime, I think it is rather misleading to blame Jayne for just about everything which is not quite right with ATM. It is an iconic company now on the NZX and deserves better assessments.


Very fair comment Balance & I remember you pointing out the SP had risen 36% during her tenure. We will never know but perhaps it would be up by another 36% around $20 today if she hadn't been forced out

[Balance]

Well there isn't much wrong with A2 IMO other than a few wrong appointments and no plan of what to do with the near billion dollar cash pile, the sp has and will be manipulated and controlled by game players to a large extent which has nothing to do with how good a company it is.

I thought you will be enjoying the 'manipulation' as it's back to 'Up in NZX' and "down when ASX opens' just about everyday again? ;)

[couta1]

I thought you will be enjoying the 'manipulation' as it's back to 'Up in NZX' and "down when ASX opens' just about everyday again? ;) Your right although some people may not consider selling for a loss on purpose and buying back cheaper enjoyable. Lol

[Oberon]

Your right although some people may not consider selling for a loss on purpose and buying back cheaper enjoyable. Lol

Well, the midday phenomenon is back in full and I'm sitting on a lemon after having jumped back in over $15.50. Averaging down below $15 before 1H2020 results would be nice. I haven't done it before so am slightly tentative; the odd time the ASX has swung the other way post-midday - but not lately. Considered it this morning and chickened out. In any event I won't be pleased to see the price get hammered down over the next month just to see a sharp spike on results back to where I was in the first place lol.

[Balance]

https://www.shortman.com.au/stock?q=A2M

12m shorted shares covered since 11 December 2019 - would have expected the sp to hold steady with that kind of buying but sp has actually been slipping a little.

Relatively low turnover in shares traded today (429k shares only so far on ASX) - suggest market is going to break out but in which direction!

Low turnover again so far - looks ominous that the breakout when the volume trade direction is going to be down again like yesterday?

[couta1]

Low turnover again so far - looks ominous that the breakout when the volume trade direction is going to be down again like yesterday? Masterclass manipulation on display the last few days, the gullible will have regrets when the buying volume arrives which should be in a couple of weeks or sooner.

[Dotbond]

Masterclass manipulation on display the last few days, the gullible will have regrets when the buying volume arrives which should be in a couple of weeks or sooner.
Hey couta1, can you explain that statement in laymans terms please?

[NOCASH]

So tempting at this level, but i am afraid in the next couple of days we will see $13.xx

[Beagle]

Wide variances in people's valuations so its best to follow the technical indicators NOCASH.

Looking at the chart over the last few years the 30 day moving average, (rather than 100 day), indicator has given better results due to the volatility of this share. Broke down through the 30 day MA recently so a clear sell indicator that would have got people out at just on $15.

Take care out there folks.

[winner69]

$14.10 is where the 100 day moving average is. I expect it to test that in the coming days. Its very telling that the share price is in ongoing decline when we have regular new all time high's in many markets. Any sustained break below $14.10 would be an ominous sign for near term share price performance.

Take care out there folks.

Hasn’t gone below its 100MA .....I’m told a 5 year timeframe is a strong indicator where things might head ...so no going below 100MA

So $17 bucks plus here we come

[couta1]

So tempting at this level, but i am afraid in the next couple of days we will see $13.xx Maybe or maybe not, not predictable.

[couta1]

Hasn’t gone below its 100MA .....I’m told a 5 year timeframe is a strong indicator where things might head ...so no going below 100MA

So $17 bucks plus here we come Lol Beagle should stick to predicting SUM other ones, he's missed out on mega bucks on this one already through being too cautious.

[Beagle]

Lol Beagle should stick to predicting SUM other ones, he's missed out on mega bucks on this one already through being too cautious.

Mega bucks lol. Mostly sold in the high $12's nearly two years ago and reinvested in stocks like HGH at $1.31, SUM at $5.50 and MET at $4.40...I'll leave you to work out the percentages :)

[couta1]

Hey couta1, can you explain that statement in laymans terms please? Basically they suppress the sp and drive it down even selling some for a loss on the way down but buying a whole lot more cheaper, working both sides of the market simultaneously, once the price goes up on volume they sell into it making a good profit, rinse and repeat.

[tomm]

Basically they suppress the sp and drive it down even selling some for a loss on the way down but buying a whole lot more cheaper, working both sides of the market simultaneously, once the price goes up on volume they sell into it making a good profit, rinse and repeat.
Shorters are recoverings , they do this just to wait for the next announcement in Feb.

[Beagle]

Hasn’t gone below its 100MA .....I’m told a 5 year timeframe is a strong indicator where things might head ...so no going below 100MA

So $17 bucks plus here we come

Yeah $14.10 will be a test but as you'll note I amended that post as from my observations the 30 day MA is a more useful indicator given its very high volatility.

Healthy to have opposing views on this one so the young ones get a variety of old hands opinions.

[winner69]

Yeah $14.10 will be a test but as you'll note I amended that post as from my observations the 30 day MA is a more useful indicator given its very high volatility.

Healthy to have opposing views on this one so the young ones get a variety of old hands opinions.

You need to go the whole hog with your MAs

You’ll have to admit the Rainbow MA looks really impressive

No worries here

[Beagle]

Very impressive, we're definitely at some sort of inflection point :)

[winner69]

Very impressive, we're definitely at some sort of inflection point :)

Bollies are tightening up ...usually good sign I’m told

That $17 odd looking good

[Beagle]

Should just get with the program and get 40,000 shares... a dead easy $2.50 per share to be made in the next month or two, fast, really easy and a certain $100,000 profit my mates tell me...this investing stuff is so easy...what could possibly go wrong...

[Dotbond]

Thanks couta1 and tomm

[couta1]

Should just get with the program and get 40,000 shares... a dead easy $2.50 per share to be made in the next month or two, fast, really easy and a certain $100,000 profit my mates tell me...this investing stuff is so easy...what could possibly go wrong... But have you got shot putt sized balls and nerves of steel to go with it, talk is cheap. Lol

[Beagle]

Don't need to take risks like that mate. I have a very well diversified portfolio of high quality companies all of which have outstanding prospects.

I was just up at the optometrist helping Mrs B sort out some new glasses. Posters all over the walls encouraging people to get off their electronic devices and engage in more healthy activities to lower the chance of myopia. Maybe something in that message for you mate :p

[winner69]

The
Don't need to take risks like that mate. I have a very well diversified portfolio of high quality companies all of which have outstanding prospects.

:p

A2 a ‘high quality company’ with ‘outstanding prospects’

You should become more diversified than what you are ......by adding another good prospect to your portfolio.

[couta1]

The

A2 a ‘high quality company’ with ‘outstanding prospects’

You should become more diversified than what you are ......by adding another good prospect to your portfolio. I think he could be a SUMwhat blinkered racehorse.

[Beagle]

The

A2 a ‘high quality company’ with ‘outstanding prospects’

You should become more diversified than what you are ......by adding another good prospect to your portfolio.

FA and TA need to line up and I need to consult a member of the Rainbow investment community to decide which moving average indicator to use now ;) but I suspect the 30 day one works best and this says stay out and its also above my fair value estimate so FA doesn't look attractive either.
I already have quite a few Kingfish and their #1 investment position is ATM. Don't need any more exposure than that at present.

[Snow Leopard]

You need to go the whole hog with your MAs

You’ll have to admit the Rainbow MA looks really impressive

No worries here

You been reading too much Daryl Guppy :t_up: ( The original Mr Mustache :) )

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/g/guppy-multiple-moving-average.asp

[Beagle]

I think he could be a SUMwhat blinkered racehorse.

You were there at the annual meeting late April 2019 when the shares were ~ $5.50 and I told you in no uncertain terms to hold them. I keep it under 10% and make sure I keep a wide field of view on other investment opportunities and augment that with significant stakes in Kingfish, Barramundi and Marlin. Kind of ironic you saying I'm taking a blinkered approach...have a look in the mirror pal !

[winner69]

You been reading too much Daryl Guppy :t_up: ( The original Mr Mustache :) )

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/g/guppy-multiple-moving-average.asp

Your hero?

I just found these rainbows on yahoo charts and they looked beautiful so look at them nowcand again.

[couta1]

You were there at the annual meeting late April 2019 when the shares were ~ $5.50 and I told you in no uncertain terms to hold them. I keep it under 10% and make sure I keep a wide field of view on other investment opportunities and augment that with significant stakes in Kingfish, Barramundi and Marlin. Kind of ironic you saying I'm taking a blinkered approach...have a look in the mirror pal ! You obviously overlooked the humour in my post. PS-I only bought SUM shares to get into the AGM and to once again give you the pleasure of riding in the old Suzuki. Lol

[Dotbond]

Another SPH disclosure notice from Morgan Stanley this morning.

[Ggcc]

This is the start of the rise to $17+.... Slow but steady will be sufficient for me. Or fast lol. Not a certainty, just a gut feeling

[see weed]

This is the start of the rise to $17+.... Slow but steady will be sufficient for me. Or fast lol. Not a certainty, just a gut feeling
I'm picking $18+ with my gut. Couta1 is that your 75,000 order at $14.70c:eek2:.

[Joshuatree]

Is that your big colon or your small colon talking?

[Ggcc]

Is that your big colon or your small colon talking?
Both. They are in a longterm relationship

[bull....]

one of the biggest infant formula companies listed in hong kong recently very interesting reading propectus

China Feihe Limited 中國飛鶴有限公司 (Incorporated in the Cayman Islands with limited liability) GLOBAL OFFERING

Feihe, headquartered in Beijing, is the largest and most highly recognized Chinese brand infant milk formula company. As the prominent market leader, our brand ranked first among domestic and international peers

Overview of market

Due to the decline in birth rates, the retail sales volume of China’s infant milk formula market is estimated to experience a slightly lower growth from 2018 to 2023, with a CAGR of 3.8%. However, thanks to the continuously growing demand for high-end products and rising retail price, China’s infant milk formula market is expected to maintain steady growth in terms of the retail sales value

According to the F&S Report, in 2014 and 2018, international brands collectively held 55.0% and 53.4%, respectively, of the infant milk formula market in terms of the retail sales value. While domestic brands collectively held 45.0% and 46.6% of the infant milk formula market in the same years, respectively. Over the last five years, domestic brands have occupied a growing share of infant milk formula market through their continued investment in brand promotion as well as research and development of high-end products. By the end of 2023, the market share held by domestic brands is expected to increase to over half of the entire market

According to the F&S Report, since 2014, the high-end segment of infant milk formula products increased from RMB35.3 billion in terms of the retail sales value, which accounted for 22.0% of the overall market, to RMB92.9 billion in 2018, which accounted for 37.9% of the overall market, representing a CAGR of 27.3%, demonstrating faster growth than the overall infant milk formula market. The high-end segment is expected to continue to grow, reaching RMB199.8 billion by 2023, representing a CAGR of 16.6%. By 2023, the high-end segment is expected to account for approximately 58.3% of the overall infant milk formula market in China

The following are key market drivers and trends of the infant milk formula market in China:

•Favorable industry policies by the PRC government.

• The NDRC unveiled the Action Plan for the Promotion of Domestic Infant Milk Formula (國產嬰幼兒配方乳粉提升行動方案) in May 2019, aiming to increase the portion of domestically manufactured infant milk formula in China with a target to remain a 60% self-sufficient level in the industry, and to encourage the use of fresh milk in the production of infant milk formula. See “Regulatory Overview – Laws and Regulations Relating to the Industry – Policies Relating to Infant Milk Formula Industry.”

• The Administrative Measures for the Registration of Product Formulas of Infant Formula Milk Powder (嬰幼兒配方乳粉產品配方註冊管理辦法) issued in June 2016 limits each registered infant milk formula manufacturer to the registration of up to three product series, resulting in a higher market concentration which would benefit major infant milk formula market players with a strong presence in small cities and rural areas in China. See “Regulatory Overview – Laws and Regulations Relating to the Industry – Laws and Regulations Relating to the Production and Distribution of Dairy Products.”
The liberalization of the “One-Child Policy” and the implementation of the “Universal Two-Child Policy” may lead to the increase in the infant population aged 0-3 years, who are likely to be a force driving the growth of the infant milk formula market.

• Growth of the high-end infant milk formula segment. Due to increasing urbanization, rising disposable income and growing health awareness, the demand for high-end infant milk formula products, particularly super-premium products, is expected to be the driving force of the overall infant milk formula industry in China.

• Increasing urbanization and rising disposable income. The increase in the urbanization rate and the per capita annual disposable income of Chinese residents will enhance the purchasing power of consumers, allowing them to purchase more infant milk formula products, especially high-end products. Lower-tier cities as well as rural areas in China are becoming more urbanized and wealthy, and families in such regions are increasingly able to afford higher-quality infant milk formula. In general, these regions have larger populations and therefore higher potential for consumption growth.

• Low level of exclusive breastfeeding rate. The rate of infants that are fed exclusively with breast milk for the first six months after birth was 29% in 2018. The increasing resemblance of infant milk formula to breast milk, availability of infant milk formula and inconvenience of breastfeeding for working mothers are among the primary factors that have influenced a mother’s choice of whether or not to breastfeed her baby. With China’s continued economic growth and urbanization process, breastfeeding rates are forecasted to remain at low levels, creating more demand for infant milk formula.

can read the prospectus here has good overview of the infant formula market in china

https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2019/1030/2019103000013.pdf

[whome]

Thanks for that bull. Interesting read re market segmentation. Confirms my belief that A2 marketing effort must be targeted at maintaining their premium positioning in the huge Chinese IF market. No other market comes close including the US initiative - merely a distraction. Projected 5% further increase in market share by 2023 of the high end segment by local suppliers is a telling statistic. Await the Feb update from A2 with much interest on their performance in China. Disclose: holder.

[see weed]

Thanks for that bull. Interesting read re market segmentation. Confirms my belief that A2 marketing effort must be targeted at maintaining their premium positioning in the huge Chinese IF market. No other market comes close including the US initiative - merely a distraction. Projected 5% further increase in market share by 2023 of the high end segment by local suppliers is a telling statistic. Await the Feb update from A2 with much interest on their performance in China. Disclose: holder.
Are we talking a1 or a2 high end market? And are the Chinese making high end melamine flavoured a2 yet, or is it still in the pipe line? I would think Chinese buyers going out to buy a2 IF will be buying in the high and low end market and anywhere else they can get their hands on "A2" IF and not the high end a1.

[see weed]

Should just get with the program and get 40,000 shares... a dead easy $2.50 per share to be made in the next month or two, fast, really easy and a certain $100,000 profit my mates tell me...this investing stuff is so easy...what could possibly go wrong...
Been there done that. A2 had a low of $12.19c on 7/11/19. A2 rocketing away again today. $15 here we come..opps...$16 here we come:t_up:. Hope I haven't opened my big mouth and put a jinx on it. Still plenty of time to get on board before it hits $18:).

[Ggcc]

This is the start of the rise to $17+.... Slow but steady will be sufficient for me. Or fast lol. Not a certainty, just a gut feeling
I maybe correct with my gut instinct

[see weed]

I maybe correct with my gut instinct
Yes you may. And that could be $18+. I thought Aussi was going to hit that before NZ, on their close tonight. Somebody out there knows something. Maybe a half year result leak.

[Ggcc]

Yes you may. And that could be $18+. I thought Aussi was going to hit that before NZ, on their close tonight. Somebody out there knows something. Maybe a half year result leak.
I think so and a pull back in outgoings due to a reduction in marketing in US with new CEO

[couta1]

Yes you may. And that could be $18+. I thought Aussi was going to hit that before NZ, on their close tonight. Somebody out there knows something. Maybe a half year result leak. Just trade deal buzz I reckon, 2 steps forward and 1 back is just fine with me until the report. PS-Expecting a step backward at some stage next week, market running hot always has colder days mixed in and especially this stock.

[carrom74]

I hope these kind of reports does not impact the uptrend gathering momentum...

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-51145251

[Ggcc]

I hope these kind of reports does not impact the uptrend gathering momentum...

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-51145251
A2 is a premium brand and should not have as much impact.

[couta1]

I hope these kind of reports does not impact the uptrend gathering momentum...

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-51145251 Will have almost zilch impact as A2 is still gaining market share of a reduced market which is still massive by any measure.

[allfromacell]

Will have almost zilch impact as A2 is still gaining market share of a reduced market which is still massive by any measure.

Plus the premium IF market is still growing, less babies = more money to spend on
the even more precious babies.

[whatsup]

Article in todays N Z Herald, most of what I call a beat up but Monday's trading will be interesting, hmmm !

[tomm]

Article in todays N Z Herald, most of what I call a beat up but Monday's trading will be interesting, hmmm !
have you realize that everytime when A2 SP pushed about 2%/day up, then there is an article on NZ herald trying to depress it :)) , IGNORE IT MATE.
All they do are trying to repeat things which everyone already knew over and over and over and over....again....

[Baa_Baa]

Just for fun, would a simple Moving Average crossover trading strategy work? Using the 9 day and 22 day MA's, buy or sell 1000 shares at the closing price on the first day of a clear MA crossover.

Let's start with an arbitrary date that gives no obvious advantage, 21/2/2018 when the price spiked big time and buy the closing price of $11.75 (initial $11,750 trade). (we would've missed ~$2.50 gain from the previous day). What would happen by following this mechanical MA crossover trading strategy over the subsequent two years to-date?

https://invst.ly/pjifl here's the chart, price bars are not shown, only the MA's and closing buy / sell prices. ATM share price can 'gap up' or down, so the price at the MA crossover trigger can be a long way from the actual trade price.

Nevertheless, on 9 trades it would be 5 winners, 3 flat, 1 loser for a total +$6,120 gain. We'd currently be out waiting for another buy signal.




ATM Moving Average Crossover Trading Strategy


















MA 9/22
- Buy or Sell the CLOSING price on the first day of a clear gap.

































































1,000

Shares traded











Date


Buy


Sell


P&L






Buy


Sell


Trade P&L


Cumulative P&L




21-02-18


$ 11.75














$ 11,750
















05-04-18






$ 12.88


$1.13










$ 12,880


$1,130


$1,130




10-05-18


$ 13.01














$ 13,010
















21-05-18






$ 11.04


($1.97)










$ 11,040


($1,970)


($840)




14-06-18


$ 11.50














$ 11,500
















06-07-18






$ 11.50


$0.00










$ 11,500


$0


($840)




17-08-18


$ 10.85














$ 10,850
















18-09-18






$ 12.14


$1.29










$ 12,140


$1,290


$450




05-11-18


$ 10.15














$ 10,150
















26-11-18






$ 10.20


$0.05










$ 10,200


$50


$500




29-11-18


$ 10.90














$ 10,900
















19-03-19






$ 13.70


$2.80










$ 13,700


$2,800


$3,300




05-04-19


$ 14.55














$ 14,550
















16-05-19






$ 16.27


$1.72










$ 16,270


$1,720


$5,020




04-07-19


$ 14.95














$ 14,950
















12-08-19






$ 16.04


$1.09










$ 16,040


$1,090


$6,110




20-11-19


$ 14.67














$ 14,670
















07-01-20






$ 14.68


$0.01










$ 14,680


$10


$6,120




Definitely not advice, this is purely an exercise just for fun.
:)

[Snow Leopard]

Have you factored in $30+ for each buy and each sell and taxation (for trading) and how does that compare with more sophisticated strategies such as buy & hold?

[Baa_Baa]

Have you factored in $30+ for each buy and each sell and taxation (for trading) and how does that compare with more sophisticated strategies such as buy & hold?

Trading - $3,920 net realised, inc trading fees & 33% tax
Buy'n hold - $3,440 gross unrealised inc trading fees (at 17/1 closing price)

[cymonger]

I've gotta admit, I've been doing the Couta "thing" myself lately (buying and selling on the obvious ebbs and flows.) I didn't have the nerve at first, as I figured there would be that one day I missed out on a 15% jump. But after tracking the stock for years, evaluating the huge companies shorting and buying, and even understanding the obvious swings between the NZ and Australian markets, I jumped in. Have picked up like 2,000 shares.

But don't get me wrong. This **** makes me very nervous....

[Beagle]

Article in todays N Z Herald, most of what I call a beat up but Monday's trading will be interesting, hmmm !

Was quite an insightful analysis. Holders should avial themselves of a copy of Saturday's Herald print edition. To me the guy seemed to really know his stuff and headwinds appear to be building.

[allfromacell]

Reminds me of this article posted almost 2 years ago. Everyone was sure Nestle was going to end A2's momentum but that never happened...

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12023435

A2 in China is seen as a brand first and foremost and the science comes second. The first mover advantage is crucial as the competition is seen as copy cats and not the 'real a2'. The points raised about Chinese domestic formula growth are valid and something to keep an eye on but imo the thirst for foreign premium brands is not going anywhere quickly. A2's growth in China as reported at the AGM continues to impress, margins have been reconfirmed to be healthy and I see no need to panic until the sales numbers start to slow.

[Snow Leopard]

Looks like we are all in confirmation bias. :rolleyes:

[Ggcc]

It is great to be cautious when investing and take on both sides of the argument. Having said that. Time and time again we have heard from the media about the headwind A2 will be facing, I call cry wolf. Some including myself are deaf to criticism about ATM and I am not concerned yet about the talk about others hopping into the A2 market. I am keeping an eye on these lower margins they speak of, but for now take it with a grain of salt.

The company mentioned a few years back that they loved the idea that more competitors were to become A2 milk producers. It supported their claims for the benefits of A2 protein milk even stronger. So until the figures prove otherwise, I will keep holding

[couta1]

Have you factored in $30+ for each buy and each sell and taxation (for trading) and how does that compare with more sophisticated strategies such as buy & hold? Buy and hold is not a job like trading is so brokerage is just like any normal business expense. PS-If I put up how much brokerage I paid last year I might cause a few heart attacks to occur. Lol

[Snow Leopard]

For the benefit of the 'mine is bigger than yours' brigade:

Any form of investing/trading is as much a ''job' as any other and brokerage is an expense for all who pay it.
The different tax treatments of different approaches to making money through shares is immaterial.

All that really matters is that you are happy with your returns.

I wish you all Many Happy Returns.

[couta1]

For the benefit of the 'mine is bigger than yours' brigade:

Any form of investing/trading is as much a ''job' as any other and brokerage is an expense for all who pay it.
The different tax treatments of different approaches to making money through shares is immaterial.

All that really matters is that you are happy with your returns.

I wish you all Many Happy Returns. Who cares who's is bigger, I certainly dont ,but re investing versus trading, I dont know many investors who spend all day on the market every day it is open. Agree about the happy with your returns bit though.

[Cadalac123]

I also spent quite a lot on commissions last year but tbh I made it back and I wouldn't have made it back if I didn't employ regular decision making and changes based on fundamentals ASAP.
I think ignoring commissions to make changes as necessary can be a decent approach as long as you don't panic sell or buy regularly.

[couta1]

I also spent quite a lot on commissions last year but tbh I made it back and I wouldn't have made it back if I didn't employ regular decision making and changes based on fundamentals ASAP.
I think ignoring commissions to make changes as necessary can be a decent approach as long as you don't panic sell or buy regularly. At the end of the day if your profit is more than your brokerage then you are in the money, the extent by which you are in the money is determined by numerous factors some of which are outside of your control so investing and trading are the same in that respect.

[Beagle]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12301249

[44wishlists]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12301249

Article from the Herald. That already said it all.

[Cadalac123]

Its more reliable sticking to fundamentals that doom theories

[dobby41]

Article from the Herald. That already said it all.

The article is actually quite well thought out.
A2 will become a commodity - it is a matter of when not if.
It is the when that counts and we are not there yet.
So ride it now but keep an eye on the changing environment.
Only a fool would think that the market won't change with time.

[Beagle]

The article is actually quite well thought out.
A2 will become a commodity - it is a matter of when not if.
It is the when that counts and we are not there yet.
So ride it now but keep an eye on the changing environment.
Only a fool would think that the market won't change with time.

Wise words.

[see weed]

a2m depth at the moment would take their sp to A14.75c?

[couta1]

a2m depth at the moment would take their sp to A14.75c? Scrambled nonsense mate.

[Blue Skies]

"We are on the cusp of the biggest economic transformation of any kind for the last 200 years" This is an extremely interesting read, esp for anyone investing in food supply sector.

Dairy farming in the US it claims, will be all but bankrupt by 2030. Ten years goes by awfully quickly & big shifts are already happening which are only going to accelerate.

Am not remotely suggesting A2 is not still a good investment today, but good to be aware of whats just over the horizon, change is definitely coming whether we like it or not.


https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/jan/08/lab-grown-food-destroy-farming-save-planet (https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/jan/08/lab-grown-food-destroy-farming-save-planet?CMP=share_btn_fb&fbclid=IwAR3aGrq_azNcoH3BGX9Wm1Wc60flTLwgEzzdrGGeN AkOoHbsxByd_7yZX3U)

[couta1]

Gap at around $14.82, expecting it to be closed sometime over the next few days.

[bull....]

Chinese birth rate slows to the lowest in the history of the People's Republic of China
The country's birth rate in 2019 stood at 10.48 per thousand — the lowest since 1949 — data released by the National Bureau of Statistics of China showed on Friday.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01-17/china-birth-rate-lowest-in-70-years/11878818?section=business

[see weed]

"We are on the cusp of the biggest economic transformation of any kind for the last 200 years" This is an extremely interesting read, esp for anyone investing in food supply sector.

Dairy farming in the US it claims, will be all but bankrupt by 2030. Ten years goes by awfully quickly & big shifts are already happening which are only going to accelerate.

Am not remotely suggesting A2 is not still a good investment today, but good to be aware of whats just over the horizon, change is definitely coming whether we like it or not.


https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/jan/08/lab-grown-food-destroy-farming-save-planet (https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/jan/08/lab-grown-food-destroy-farming-save-planet?CMP=share_btn_fb&fbclid=IwAR3aGrq_azNcoH3BGX9Wm1Wc60flTLwgEzzdrGGeN AkOoHbsxByd_7yZX3U)
That reminds me back in the 70s when we had carless days because people were very very worried about oil running out. Nobody going to stop me eating bacon with my eggs. Or those nice juicy steaks on bbq and not to forget the bbq sausages wrapped in bread with bit of onion or cheese and tomato sauce. Deviled sausages are nice too. Followed by a nice glass of chocolate a2 milk:t_up:.

[tobo]

The market may separate further into premium food versus cheaper convenience food. Succulent $100/kg steak versus 'up and go' (slurped in 60 seconds through a straw... not that far away from 'astronaut's goop). That view still accommodates 'premium' A2 milk and IF.
We should keep an eye out for startups developing these new foods.

[dobby41]

That reminds me back in the 70s when we had carless days because people were very very worried about oil running out. Nobody going to stop me eating bacon with my eggs. Or those nice juicy steaks on bbq and not to forget the bbq sausages wrapped in bread with bit of onion or cheese and tomato sauce. Deviled sausages are nice too. Followed by a nice glass of chocolate a2 milk:t_up:.

This is an area where NZ could make some good money.
There will always be a need for premium products.
Some people will happily pay more for their meat when the alternative is 'plant based meat'.
We may end up growing less meat and getting more for it.

As for a glass of A2 - a cheaper glass of A1 does me fine but I'm not their target market.

[BlackPeter]

That reminds me back in the 70s when we had carless days because people were very very worried about oil running out. Nobody going to stop me eating bacon with my eggs. Or those nice juicy steaks on bbq and not to forget the bbq sausages wrapped in bread with bit of onion or cheese and tomato sauce. Deviled sausages are nice too. Followed by a nice glass of chocolate a2 milk:t_up:.

No doubt - there always will be traditional food market niches for customers who are both Rich AND Conservative.

Question is - will this niche be big enough for a growth company like A2?

I don't know, but I think it is worthwhile to watch the market ... can't be that hard to produce A2 (or whatever) milk powder from bacteria ...). If these products are as good or better than the traditional product and at the same time much cheaper - what do you think will happen on the market? Just remember what happens with the impossible burger.

[Balance]

The article is actually quite well thought out.
A2 will become a commodity - it is a matter of when not if.
It is the when that counts and we are not there yet.
So ride it now but keep an eye on the changing environment.
Only a fool would think that the market won't change with time.

Article certainly supports Jayne's strategy of spending up NOW while ATM has the market positioning to entrench itself as THE A2 MILK company.

Just as Coca Cola is in the soft drinks market.

Let's see what Geoff (and/or new CEO) say.

[dobby41]

Article certainly supports Jayne's strategy of spending up NOW while ATM has the market positioning to entrench itself as THE A2 MILK company.

Just as Coca Cola is in the soft drinks market.

Let's see what Geoff (and/or new CEO) say.

It certainly reinforces the view that the company can't rest on its' laurels and needs to work to make gains (and keep what it has).
First mover only goes so far.

[Balance]

Meanwhile, shorters have bought back 15m shares since a month ago - providing price support.

[Sideshow Bob]

The NZ Herald paywall article from a couple of days ago, detailed headwinds for A2 is in todays ODT.

Unfortunately they don't put any such articles on the ODT website.....

[sb9]

Inching close to AU $15 mark as shorts seem to be covering in time for 1H results and be ready for fresh attack from high price point later on.

[couta1]

Inching close to AU $15 mark as shorts seem to be covering in time for 1H results and be ready for fresh attack from high price point later on. I'm not sure if its shorts covering or the likes of Morgan Stanley buying more to lend out to shorters, with a down day or two inevitable on the US market not too far away I reckon it's more likely the latter.

[allfromacell]

Did someone say something about margin pressure? What an embarrassment for Sam Teeger.

"The stock was upgraded by Citi after analysis of distribution channels, with Australian retail stores and daigou channels showing many of its products were out of stock.
Analyst Sam Teeger notes that daigou feedback indicates that a2 rmains the most popular brand even after recent price increases.
The broker lifted its price target to $14.85 from $12.30, and the stock last traded up 1.3 per cent to $14.85."

[see weed]

Hey couta1! I did very well today, and waited, and jumped in at 14.52, 1c above the low. Yippy yi ya :t_up:.
Seems so long ago...8/1/20. The sp dropped to 14.37 half hour after buying at 14.52, but closed at 14.60. Just sitting back now, all fully stocked up, and waiting for results.

[Cadalac123]

Wonder if SML will go up on the positive news from ATM on its next report. These two used to follow each other so closely and are completely disconnected now..

[Ggcc]

Did someone say something about margin pressure? What an embarrassment for Sam Teeger.

"The stock was upgraded by Citi after analysis of distribution channels, with Australian retail stores and daigou channels showing many of its products were out of stock.
Analyst Sam Teeger notes that daigou feedback indicates that a2 rmains the most popular brand even after recent price increases.
The broker lifted its price target to $14.85 from $12.30, and the stock last traded up 1.3 per cent to $14.85."
No way doom and gloom is here to stay. Oh wait that has been mentioned to us numerous times

[couta1]

Bot working to Jack the price up this morning.

[see weed]

A2m on $15, for how long?..15.01, 02 :eek2:

[sb9]

Chugging along pretty hot right now....

[see weed]

Chugging along pretty hot right now....

Yes $16 just around the corner. It didn't stay at $15 for very long. Up over a dollar in a week and loving it :t_up:.

[smartbomb]

https://www.intelligentinvestor.com.au/investment-news/a2-milks-formula-for-success/146654

A bit of a recent and positive change of heart from Intelligent Investor this side of Tasman. All amounts in AUD.

[sb9]

https://www.intelligentinvestor.com.au/investment-news/a2-milks-formula-for-success/146654

A bit of a recent and positive change of heart from Intelligent Investor this side of Tasman. All amounts in AUD.

Yes did read that comment over on HC along with notoriously well known Citi analyst Sam Teeger also seem to have made a U turn and is bullish on A2.

[sb9]

For all A2 enthusiasts and those that are wanting to know more, if you've a spare 30min listen to the conf call as per link below following that shocking announcement on Dec 9th last year re CEO's exit.

I found it very useful and informative.

https://thea2milkcompany.com/wp-content/uploads/conf5428557.mp3

[silu]

https://www.intelligentinvestor.com.au/investment-news/a2-milks-formula-for-success/146654

A bit of a recent and positive change of heart from Intelligent Investor this side of Tasman. All amounts in AUD.

I'm a dummy but always saw A2 as a marketing company. Why are highly paid analysts only coming around now?

[Cadalac123]

Gearing up well for the Gap up on report day

[Leftfield]

Progress on introducing A2 IF in South Korea reported here. (https://www.dairyreporter.com/Article/2020/01/20/a2-milk-partners-with-South-Korea-s-Yuhan-pharmaceuticals-for-infant-formula-launch)

[Cadalac123]

Didn't even hear about that. Wonder if that's the reason for the sudden spike in share price..

[sb9]

$16 now and looking rather solid for more gains from here on...

[Dotbond]

Gearing up well for the Gap up on report day
Can you explain that comment, i'm feeling rather incapable after 8 hrs at the office.

[44wishlists]

Can you explain that comment, i'm feeling rather incapable after 8 hrs at the office.

There are two gaps on the A2M price chart. Lower gap at AU14.25 and upper gap at AU$15.59 With what's happening now, the upper gap is very likely to be filled before the report day.

[see weed]

A2m on $15, for how long?..15.01, 02 :eek2:
Woops, it is now on 15.60 and rising, go calfy go. Couta1, you must be over the moon.:t_up:.

[longy]

There are two gaps on the A2M price chart. Lower gap at AU14.25 and upper gap at AU$15.59 With what's happening now, the upper gap is very likely to be filled before the report day.

Is there one gap @ 17.05? I don't do gaps usually but do fine them interesting as some of you often talked about them.

[NZSilver]

Is there a takeover bid looming?

[tomm]

There is a gap at $16.85 NZD .

[see weed]

There is a gap at $16.85 NZD .
I see a gap at 19.50, but sp could go right pass gaps up or down.

[cymonger]

To think Beagle was mocking Couta for saying 16 was "right around the corner" just a few days ago. I hope new readers to this forum consider such things.

[kiwico]

I'm a dummy but always saw A2 as a marketing company. Why are highly paid analysts only coming around now?

I've been a happy subscriber to the Intelligent Investor (https://www.intelligentinvestor.com.au/) for around ten years.They are value investors and so always struggle with growth stocks that seem expensive based on cash flow.

I see it as beneficial that they challenge their own assumptions - they are very good at working though their mistakes and why they happened.

[sb9]

Closed on ASX at $15.59 which equates to $16.18 NZ, let’s see what’s in store tmrw

[Beagle]

To think Beagle was mocking Couta for saying 16 was "right around the corner" just a few days ago. I hope new readers to this forum consider such things.

Must admit that was a very robust exchange of viewpoints but that's what makes a market and makes this place interesting. If everyone else only made just over 1 post a month like some members do...this place would be like a morgue...

$17+ was what was talked about and F.Y.I. Coutts and I are great mates so it was all discussed in the spirit of just giving him a really good ribbing. He's got thick skin and can easily take it. I only eat humble pie if it goes over $17 before or within 3 days after the interim report NZX release, (even then I will be quietly content to eat same) as I have heaps of Kingfish (KFL) and guess what is their biggest investment position :)

[Blue Skies]

To think Beagle was mocking Couta for saying 16 was "right around the corner" just a few days ago. I hope new readers to this forum consider such things.

Hey, was that a tone? No need for that!
Beagle is one of the most highly respected & informed contributors to this forum, & the informed analysis (& the humour) which he generously shares is hugely appreciated.

[tomm]

Chill out guys, the forum is what it is about mocking each others for different opinions and laughing, no hard feelings .

[Hoop]

As the reporting season nears, out pop the players...the play-uppers and the play-downers...Some with good intentions, some not...A plethora of Information and misinformation affecting sentiment...just an extra complication for us investors (both FAers and TAers) to deal with.....
Let the fun begin...Best of luck chaps (and Chapesses)

[kiora]

As the reporting season nears, out pop the players...the play-uppers and the play-downers...Some with good intentions, some not...A plethora of Information and misinformation affecting sentiment...just an extra complication for us investors (both FAers and TAers) to deal with.....
Let the fun begin...Best of luck chaps (and Chapesses)

Ack welcome back Hoop and let the fun begin as you say.There has been a lot while you have been away :)

[Leftfield]

ATM - the decades best performing stock according to Bloomberg (outperforming Apple and Alibaba to head the MSC Index) (Link here) (https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-12-31/a2-milk-stock-outperformed-alibaba-apple-and-netflix-over-decade)

Congratulations to all holders.

(Disc 50% of my portfolio, holding and happy.)

[Balance]

ATM - the decades best performing stock according to Bloomberg (outperforming Apple and Alibaba to head the MSC Index) (Link here) (https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-12-31/a2-milk-stock-outperformed-alibaba-apple-and-netflix-over-decade)

Congratulations to all holders.

(Disc 50% of my portfolio, holding and happy.)

Indeed!

Congrats especially to those who held their nerves and their shares!

[Beagle]

As the reporting season nears, out pop the players...the play-uppers and the play-downers...Some with good intentions, some not...A plethora of Information and misinformation affecting sentiment...just an extra complication for us investors (both FAers and TAers) to deal with.....
Let the fun begin...Best of luck chaps (and Chapesses)

A very warm welcome back Hoop. Its awesome to have you back and your legendary TA skills have been really missed. Its made my day seeing you back here :)

[see weed]

ATM - the decades best performing stock according to Bloomberg (outperforming Apple and Alibaba to head the MSC Index) (Link here) (https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-12-31/a2-milk-stock-outperformed-alibaba-apple-and-netflix-over-decade)

Congratulations to all holders.

(Disc 50% of my portfolio, holding and happy.)

Thanks, temporary 100% holder over here for the last little while:t_up:

[Southern_Belle]

Have been a long time holder and after the recent dip promised myself I would sell part of my holding and purchase some Serko shares.

Head tells me do it now while serko taking a dip but as A2 soars I just cannot bring myself to sell those A2 shares that have given me the roller-coaster ride.

Grrr such is life

[RGR367]

Maybe by a dollar or more. Bought some in 2 August for 1752, 12 August for 1590, 21 August 1495 and the other day for 1380 :t_down: I will chase it down farther as my overall cost is still below 4 bucks :t_up: having bought and sold heaps then when acquiring it was way below that sweet amount of 56 cents. So worry not lucky early holders :p

This was just last Septermber. Why don't we chase it all the way up this time around again :cool:

[Leftfield]

Have been a long time holder and after the recent dip promised myself I would sell part of my holding and purchase some Serko shares.

Head tells me do it now while serko taking a dip but as A2 soars I just cannot bring myself to sell those A2 shares that have given me the roller-coaster ride.

Grrr such is life

Go on you know you want to!
FWIW SKO is my second largest holding after ATM, my logic was which share is/was more likely to double soonest from current purchase levels. Taking some of ATM's exponential gains and doubling them again is not a bad strategy. Its worked for me.
As always DYOR and make your own decisions.

[Southern_Belle]

Go on you know you want to!
FWIW SKO is my second largest holding after ATM, my logic was which share is/was more likely to double soonest from current purchase levels. Taking some of ATM's exponential gains and doubling them again is not a bad strategy. Its worked for me.
As always DYOR and make your own decisions.Great plan when all the ducks line up. Think I get too carried away Doing my own research and then in creeps ...... Analysis Paralysis lol

[winner69]

Happy Valley didn’t have a good start on the ASX

HVM shares floated at 29 cents down to 13 cents shortly after trading begun

[tomm]

Happy Valley didn’t have a good start on the ASX

HVM shares floated at 29 cents down to 13 cents shortly after trading begun
They should have starting with NZX .

[see weed]

There appears to be a lot of sellers around the psychological barrier of $16, which is good once they have finished selling, then on and up to the next barrier where ever that maybe... $16.50 or $17? And still 5 weeks till half yearly. Plenty of time to get in before the next yearly high of.....$.. Have a good long weekend:cool:.

[HITMAN]

I put my toe in the water today, should've hoped on the boat about 10 years ago. Let's see where this sits in 24 months.

[tomm]

A2 Milk share price at a glance

It’s been a good week for a2 Milk (https://www.ig.com/au/shares/markets-shares/a2-milk-co-ltd) (ASX: A2M) shareholders. In the last five sessions the A2M share price has risen a shade over 5%, closing out the week at $15.50 per share.
All up, this has proven to be quite a reversal of fortunes for the company; last November the stock hit a low of $11.31 per share.
Past price volatility aside, the investment bank UBS has today taken the chance to reiterate their 'buy' rating on a2 Milk. UBS has also retained their previously set share price target of NZ$17.00 per share.
The company is expected to release their first-half results on February 27.

Citi analysts ultimately believe that over the medium-term A2M's margins will contract as Chinese IMF competition increases and as a 'shift to direct channels' occurs.
In saying that, Citi has moderated their bearish stance in recent times: just this week upgrading their rating from ‘sell’ to ‘neutral’ and upgrading their 12-month share price target from $12.30 to $14.85 on a2 Milk (https://www.ig.com/au/shares/markets-shares/a2-milk-co-ltd).

[Cadalac123]

was a screaming buy at $12, at $16 I still think it's relatively undervalued provided growth in USA and South Korea pans out well. Won't be surprised if it goes into the 20s if the latter proves true.

If it just relies on China forever, then it's probably not the best punt

[couta1]

A2 Milk share price at a glance

It’s been a good week for a2 Milk (https://www.ig.com/au/shares/markets-shares/a2-milk-co-ltd) (ASX: A2M) shareholders. In the last five sessions the A2M share price has risen a shade over 5%, closing out the week at $15.50 per share.
All up, this has proven to be quite a reversal of fortunes for the company; last November the stock hit a low of $11.31 per share.
Past price volatility aside, the investment bank UBS has today taken the chance to reiterate their 'buy' rating on a2 Milk. UBS has also retained their previously set share price target of NZ$17.00 per share.
The company is expected to release their first-half results on February 27.

Citi analysts ultimately believe that over the medium-term A2M's margins will contract as Chinese IMF competition increases and as a 'shift to direct channels' occurs.
In saying that, Citi has moderated their bearish stance in recent times: just this week upgrading their rating from ‘sell’ to ‘neutral’ and upgrading their 12-month share price target from $12.30 to $14.85 on a2 Milk (https://www.ig.com/au/shares/markets-shares/a2-milk-co-ltd). Forget following anything these clowns say, they are all about their own agenda like last time the sp climbed to an all time high, they pumped it up with buy ratings and/or revised targets and then ditched at the top them promptly slapped a sell rating on the stock, rinse and repeat.

[Blue Skies]

Forget following anything these clowns say, they are all about their own agenda like last time the sp climbed to an all time high, they pumped it up with buy ratings and/or revised targets and then ditched at the top them promptly slapped a sell rating on the stock, rinse and repeat.


If 'these clowns' are able to affect the SP that strongly, perhaps not sensible to ignore them completely?

[couta1]

If 'these clowns' are able to affect the SP that strongly, perhaps not sensible to ignore them completely? I mean ignore their games and follow your own conviction but yes for trading swimming with the sharks for a while could be profitable.

[tomm]

Forget following anything these clowns say, they are all about their own agenda like last time the sp climbed to an all time high, they pumped it up with buy ratings and/or revised targets and then ditched at the top them promptly slapped a sell rating on the stock, rinse and repeat.


I mean ignore their games and follow your own conviction but yes for trading swimming with the sharks for a while could be profitable.
You got the games mate :)))

[bull....]

probably take a hit soon as chinese will postpone having new babies now due to corona virus

[winner69]

probably take a hit soon as chinese will postpone having new babies now due to corona virus

...would be a disaster if there is link between Coronavirus and milk powder

[BlackPeter]

probably take a hit soon as chinese will postpone having new babies now due to corona virus

Isn't the delivery time for babies 9 months or so? I think this would be a plan-able event. As well, if this gets really bad - the reproduction rates in Europe after the black plague always skyrocketed. Just imagine this amazing potential ...

Anyway - while I understand that shorters love to foster a good panic to make hay ... I don't think that this new flu will be much worse than other flues.

Every year around 56,000 people world wide are dying from the flu without people stopping to reproduce and putting their life on halt. 1.25 million people die every year in road crashes without people stopping to reproduce, and they don't even quarantine their cars, and only in the US (I don't found the worldwide data) are every year more than 40,000 people dying from gun violence - and hey - how do they like guns! It feels the gun lovers reproduce like cockroaches.

Just remind me - how many people died so far of the corona virus? I think the latest number was less than 60?

While shorters might be able to create some short term market ripples - the long term impact on markets and peoples lives will be ZERO.

[bull....]

Isn't the delivery time for babies 9 months or so? I think this would be a plan-able event. As well, if this gets really bad - the reproduction rates in Europe after the black plague always skyrocketed. Just imagine this amazing potential ...

Anyway - while I understand that shorters love to foster a good panic to make hay ... I don't think that this new flu will be much worse than other flues.

Every year around 56,000 people world wide are dying from the flu without people stopping to reproduce and putting their life on halt. 1.25 million people die every year in road crashes without people stopping to reproduce, and they don't even quarantine their cars, and only in the US (I don't found the worldwide data) are every year more than 40,000 people dying from gun violence - and hey - how do they like guns! It feels the gun lovers reproduce like cockroaches.

Just remind me - how many people died so far of the corona virus? I think the latest number was less than 60?

While shorters might be able to create some short term market ripples - the long term impact on markets and peoples lives will be ZERO.

BP heres a link to a graph on chinese birthrates following sars. the year 2002 - 2003 after saw a big drop in births. this will impact a2 and all infant formula producers in time thru lower growth rates

https://www.indexmundi.com/g/g.aspx?c=ch&v=25

[BlackPeter]

BP heres a link to a graph on chinese birthrates following sars. the year 2002 - 2003 after saw a big drop in births. this will impact a2 and all infant formula producers in time thru lower growth rates

https://www.indexmundi.com/g/g.aspx?c=ch&v=25

Interesting chart, however just funny that the drop in Chinese fertility seems to have preceded the SARS outbreak by a year or so. SARS outbreak started in February 2003 but according to your stats 2003 birth numbers (i.e. children conceived mainly in 2002) are already drastically down.

10962

Who knows - maybe they have a way in China to make babies faster than in the rest of the world :p?

[bull....]

predictable price action , wont be much baby making action at the moment

[sb9]

predictable price action , wont be much baby making action at the moment

You really need to think outside the box and come up more pertinent logic about A2 price movement.

[dreamcatcher]

predictable price action , wont be much baby making action at the moment

MAYBE their last chance for baby making but existing babies still need to eat ........

[bull....]

MAYBE their last chance for baby making but existing babies still need to eat ........

haha guess if i was in a lockdown situation i would probably want one for the road just in case. on a more serious note

Dairy and infant formula companies are also at risk as economic activity within China slows. Infant formula is a prime target for "daigou" shoppers, who essentially clear out supermarket shelves and sell the products back in their homeland to circumvent import tariffs and high local prices.

https://themarketherald.com.au/will-the-coronavirus-infect-australian-stocks-and-harm-investors-2020-01-22/

[couta1]

predictable price action , wont be much baby making action at the moment All sentiment driven, this baby is going to fly. PS-I love it when the panic merchants start selling.

[Dotbond]

I see at close today on the DB site, if i'm reading the chart correctly, there was a order placed for 60k shares. Am i interpreting that correctly? If so, is that someone placing an order to buy or sell? How do i find out the answer?

[tomm]

I see at close today on the DB site, if i'm reading the chart correctly, there was a order placed for 60k shares. Am i interpreting that correctly? If so, is that someone placing an order to buy or sell? How do i find out the answer?
Doesn't matter who buy or sell, If there is a transaction went through , there must be a seller and a buyer for that.

[winner69]

Hope this never happens to A2

Headline could easily be this one day:
'All it's doing is destroying value': A2 Milk slammed for US push

https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/all-it-s-doing-is-destroying-value-treasury-wine-slammed-for-us-push-20200129-p53vpb.html

[tomm]

Hope this never happens to A2

Headline could easily be this one day:
'All it's doing is destroying value': A2 Milk slammed for US push

https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/all-it-s-doing-is-destroying-value-treasury-wine-slammed-for-us-push-20200129-p53vpb.html
You put a wrong title on it : NOT A2 BUT TREASURY WINE

[winner69]

You put a wrong title on it : NOT A2 BUT TREASURY WINE

I did say hope not and headline could read with A2 in it

How long A2 going to persevere with US? Now Jaynes gone I wouldn’t be surprised if there was a ‘strategic withdrawal’ from the US. Trying to make money with soft commodities entering the US often ends in tears