ATM - A2 Milk Corporation Limited

[sb9]

$18.29. A record SP I believe. Great to have some good news in these times.

I think we definitely need an update around how other companies are providing in light of current Covid-19 situation.

[winner69]

I think we definitely need an update around how other companies are providing in light of current Covid-19 situation.

A good news announcement ....share price $25

Couts always said this a $25 stock.

[Gerald]

A good news announcement ....share price $25

Couts always said this a $25 stock.

All we need is some fph or xro multiples applied to A2 and then we would be going places :cool:

[Oberon]

Incredible climb from mid-March.

Be interesting to see how far we climb before the inevitable descent. Looks like the big boys have had this in their sights for weeks; there have been some massive buys during the closing auctions over the past month.

[allfromacell]

GS report today showed further fast growth for A2 in China for March, market share around 8% now which is fantastic. Fresh milking selling like crazy in Aus during this pandemic with some stores limiting to just 1 bottle per customer. I've also noticed the FB likes on the A2 Milk USA pages are really picking up steam growing at over 50 per day now (weak data I know).

The rise since March has been impressive but not without good reason, A2 is one of the few stocks which have undoubtedly benefited from this pandemic, the next report should see us finally reach $20.

Well done holders, a text book growth story and one NZ should be proud of.

11293

[sb9]

GS report today showed further fast growth for A2 in China for March, market share around 8% now which is fantastic. Fresh milking selling like crazy in Aus during this pandemic with some stores limiting to just 1 bottle per customer. I've also noticed the FB likes on the A2 Milk USA pages are really picking up steam growing at over 50 per day now (weak data I know).

The rise since March has been impressive but not without good reason, A2 is one of the few stocks which have undoubtedly benefited from this pandemic, the next report should see us finally reach $20.

Well done holders, a text book growth story and one NZ should be proud of.

11293

Probably the reason why there was such strong move up y'day and to cap it off BUBS came out late in the evening y'day to give their business update which like all other IF companies was very bullish.
We probably are due for an update very soon from A2. And going by the trend and this report by GS, we can only think it'll be cracker and we should sail past $20 mark if that's the case.

[Ggcc]

It looks like a all new high at open........ Well done holders

[see weed]

It looks like a all new high at open........ Well done holders
I had 2000 at 18.41 but amended to 18.91 thinking it wouldn't go that high on open. Wanted to wait until Aussi opened, and bug..r they went through on open at 19.28:mad ;:. Now i'm going to have to find some more to sell.

[see weed]

There is only 14000 on offer. Might put some on at $30 just for a laugh:D.

[sb9]

Tht once ASX opened for trading we might be pulled back as per usual, but looks as though this is a breakaway gap. Put up almost $2 in space of 2 days, that's insane at this level!!
Not complaining though, my portfolio suddenly fattened quite a bit, higher than pre-covid times :D:t_up:

[see weed]

Tht once ASX opened for trading we might be pulled back as per usual, but looks as though this is a breakaway gap. Put up almost $2 in space of 2 days, that's insane at this level!!
Not complaining though, my portfolio suddenly fattened quite a bit, higher than pre-covid times :D:t_up:
Knock Knock Knocking on Heav... $20 door. Might let it ride for a while and see where it goes. ps Am looking forward to the return of the shorters, we want more bargains.

[Leftfield]

Knock Knock Knocking on Heav... $20 door. .

Nice times for holders.

Can't help reflecting that it wasn't so long ago that some notable posters on ShareTrader were advocating selling out of shares and sitting tight on their piles of cash/bonds/managed funds etc (Gold was even mentioned.)

Way back in the 1987 crash I cashed out and didn't touch shares again for years. In these Covid times I changed strategies and chose to ride out the covid storm

Sure we may be in the midst of a DCB, sure it is early days, however IMHO time's like this (low interest rates etc) is the time to stay invested because where else can we beat inflation. It is much wiser (in sailing terms) to to trim your sails (get rid of non performing or risky shares) and follow where the winds and tides lead. Those who cashed up are still sitting in port, while those who sailed on and are riding the storm (albeit with trimmed sails) and are heading to some very lucrative ports.

[tomm]

Watch this space when George announce a new CEO in a few months.

[Ted2]

Watch this space when George announce a new CEO in a few months.

Who's George? You got the right thread???

[see weed]

Who's George? You got the right thread???
George and Mildred:)

[see weed]

Nice times for holders.

Can't help reflecting that it wasn't so long ago that some notable posters on ShareTrader were advocating selling out of shares and sitting tight on their piles of cash/bonds/managed funds etc (Gold was even mentioned.)

Way back in the 1987 crash I cashed out and didn't touch shares again for years. In these Covid times I changed strategies and chose to ride out the covid storm

Sure we may be in the midst of a DCB, sure it is early days, however IMHO time's like this (low interest rates etc) is the time to stay invested because where else can we beat inflation. It is much wiser (in sailing terms) to to trim your sails (get rid of non performing or risky shares) and follow where the winds and tides lead. Those who cashed up are still sitting in port, while those who sailed on and are riding the storm (albeit with trimmed sails) and are heading to some very lucrative ports.
Good post. Am doing a bit of both, portfolio up from 1/4/20 incl. long term, short term trading and divs:t_up: lock down is normal for me as work from home.

[tomm]

Watch this space when Geoffrey Babidge announce a new CEO in a few months.

[Southern_Belle]

Watch this space when Geoffrey Babidge announce a new CEO in a few months.

Should be plenty of quality applicants looking for a quality job

[sb9]

Watch this space when Geoffrey Babidge announce a new CEO in a few months.



Its more than likely that DH (David Hearn-Chairman) and Board will put out that announcement rather than GB himself.

[sb9]

Current run is seriously insane...

[tomm]

Current run is seriously insane...
Its the hype.

[Cadalac123]

Nice times for holders.

Can't help reflecting that it wasn't so long ago that some notable posters on ShareTrader were advocating selling out of shares and sitting tight on their piles of cash/bonds/managed funds etc (Gold was even mentioned.)

Way back in the 1987 crash I cashed out and didn't touch shares again for years. In these Covid times I changed strategies and chose to ride out the covid storm

Sure we may be in the midst of a DCB, sure it is early days, however IMHO time's like this (low interest rates etc) is the time to stay invested because where else can we beat inflation. It is much wiser (in sailing terms) to to trim your sails (get rid of non performing or risky shares) and follow where the winds and tides lead. Those who cashed up are still sitting in port, while those who sailed on and are riding the storm (albeit with trimmed sails) and are heading to some very lucrative ports.


Those same people were clearly buying while still telling people to sell too which I find quite hilarious, everyone likes to look like a genius

[Sideshow Bob]

Current run is seriously insane...

I'm waiting for a dip after getting shaken out a few weeks ago.... :(

[tomm]

I'm waiting for a dip after getting shaken out a few weeks ago.... :(
Watch this space when Geoffrey Babidge announce a new CEO in a few months. Be patient with this.
I sold A2M and loaded RYM 2 weeks ago for $7.20 , it is now $12.50 .

[Leftfield]

Watch this space when Geoffrey Babidge announce a new CEO in a few months.

Really?? What evidence have you that Geoff is standing down any time soon?

IMHO it is all 'Business as Usual' for ATM and it is extremely unlikely that ATM will repeat the mistakes made with their last CEO hire/fire. Happy to place my faith in the Board to get it right (and sort of hope that Peter Nathan gets the nod.)


Current run is seriously insane...

Anecdotal news of ATM getting to 8% - 9% in the Chinese IF market is incredible. Shorts have all but disappeared.
11310

Good times for holders!!

[waterboy]

At the start of all this COVID business who would have thought that ATM was the new safe haven. It is one of few stocks that have gone up and by quite a bit.
Doesnt matter that the DOW has had some huge down days, ATM seems to plough on.
Massive run....
Will chinese consumers be even more astute as to the origin of their food and food safety after all this, I tend to think so.

[sb9]

Looks like a big short squeeze at close on ASX pushed A2M to finish right on A$ 19 which just over NZ$ 20. BOOM TIME :D:t_up::D:t_up:

[Gerald]

Trimmed about 20% of what I had at just over $19, with the intention to buy lower. However at the rate this is taking off I am hesitant to sell any more unless we get around $21-$22.

Market clearly knows something we don't, or maybe just realising that with anything exposed to the financial sector, land/house values or tourism is screwed for awhile, there is very few financially strong growth companies selling essential goods left.

[allfromacell]

So we're back at a forward PE ratio of over 40, A2 must really be killing it in China but how much of those IF sales are pulled forward? It's a great company with a promising future but I just can't see it being worth more than $14B, now firmly inside the top 25 ASX stocks on valuation. My portfolio is heavily weighted in these shares but I'll be letting a lot go tomorrow morning if someone is prepared to pay me $20 each for them.

[Leftfield]

Looks like a big short squeeze at close on ASX pushed A2M to finish right on A$ 19 which just over NZ$ 20. BOOM TIME :D:t_up::D:t_up:

I hope Couta is smiling.......somewhere.
Well done all holders!
Allfromacell.....(nothing personal but your name is a bit too reminiscent of Covid for my liking. lol.) You say a forward PE of 40 plus is excessive..... and you may well be right.
However how do you justify FPH PE over 70 and XRO's about 5,000!! Strange times. Makes ATM seem almost modest.

[Ggcc]

Well done Couta!!!!! You stuck to your guns and it paid off.

[Mr Slothbear]

Not hard to see why

no debt
massive cash in the bank
top tier management
Stealing market share in China
helped not hindered by Corona
no supply chain issues and product easily accessible to all
Track record which speaks for itself.

now compare that to whats going on elsewhere

dividends cancelled and suspended
capital raisings and big dilution
uncertainty and unpredictable future cashflows
Big supply chain issues for many

[Snow Leopard]

ATM my second biggest holding after BLT and way ahead of anything else.

I have one seriously unbalanced portfolio :)

$20 - bring it on.

[dreamcatcher]

ATM my second biggest holding after BLT and way ahead of anything else.

I have one seriously unbalanced portfolio :)

$20 - bring it on.

Maybe not long to wait for your $20 probably gap up on open but are you a slow drip feeder or full on seller with 618 June 1st - 18th shopping extravaganza IF accumulation about to start.

Sold 10% today @ $19.50 my thoughts, SP moving between $20 - $22 been the new norm.

[MPC]

I also have a target sell price of $21. No way I'm selling them all though, everything looking good to continue well for a long time yet. Well done.

[sb9]

Really?? What evidence have you that Geoff is standing down any time soon?

IMHO it is all 'Business as Usual' for ATM and it is extremely unlikely that ATM will repeat the mistakes made with their last CEO hire/fire. Happy to place my faith in the Board to get it right (and sort of hope that Peter Nathan gets the nod.)



Anecdotal news of ATM getting to 8% - 9% in the Chinese IF market is incredible. Shorts have all but disappeared.
11310

Good times for holders!!

And as of 8th April, shorts are down below 5% at 4.98% and still to cover about 36.7 mln shares or so. Also, interesting to note the usual culprits (UBS) who rinse and repeat this one have not put out any SSH notice of accumulation in turn to lend to shorters. Makes you wonder what they know now?

I sincerely hope Mr Nathan gets a nod for CEO role, it'll be huge....

Was thinking to let another 5% go around $20 mark, but have changed my mind now and will sit tight and watch the fun.

[Leftfield]

And as of 8th April, shorts are down below 5% at 4.98% and still to cover about 36.7 mln shares or so. Also, interesting to note the usual culprits (UBS) who rinse and repeat this one have not put out any SSH notice of accumulation in turn to lend to shorters. Makes you wonder what they know now?

I sincerely hope Mr Nathan gets a nod for CEO role, it'll be huge....

Was thinking to let another 5% go around $20 mark, but have changed my mind now and will sit tight and watch the fun.

Our thoughts align....
1.) I stress Peter Nathan as CEO is pure speculation on my part, and he may not even want the role. But he does impress. Indeed there are a few other incumbents that could fit the role. Always good to promote from within IMHO.

2.) Like you I've held ATM since the .50c times. I've sold a few on the way up and have all my holding free-held (60% of my portfolio.)

I've decided not to sell any at $20 as ATM is just the share we all need in these Covid-19 times. A firm hold IMHO (much better than money in the bank!.) GLH.

[RGR367]

Our thoughts align....

......
I've decided not to sell any at $20 as ATM is just the share we all need in these Covid-19 times. A firm hold IMHO (much better than money in the bank!.) GLH.

Yup. Just like you and at 20 bucks is when we should be really averaging up again :cool:

[Oliver Mander]

so close....11324

[Ted2]

$20 hit briefly! That was my magic number to sell some of my large holding but I can't quite pull the trigger.

Am I too attached to them because they've taken me on a such a wonderful ride from 50c?
At now over 90% of portfolio is this is a big risk?
I know the answer to both is YES but................ :t_up:

[whatsup]

$20 hit briefly! That was my magic number to sell some of my large holding but I can't quite pull the trigger.

Am I too attached to them because they've taken me on a such a wonderful ride from 50c?
At now over 90% of portfolio is this is a big risk?
I know the answer to both is YES but................ :t_up:


congtrats small mile stone @ $20-00 with more to come.

[alex f]

A lot of excitement this week $17 up to $20
China trade figures, Bubs quarter and I assume everyone is expecting an ATM quarterly very soon.
What about the March lockdowns and the Chinese lockdowns in Feb March?
But then again people stockpiled, so the figures could be good.

[Leftfield]

A lot of excitement this week $17 up to $20
China trade figures, Bubs quarter and I assume everyone is expecting an ATM quarterly very soon.
What about the March lockdowns and the Chinese lockdowns in Feb March?
But then again people stockpiled, so the figures could be good.

Internet IF sales boomed during China March lockdowns, NZ Dairy exports to China up 30%..... . On top of all this you have pending inclusion of A2M in the ASX50 and shorts running for cover.

Disc - hopelessly biased so DYOR.

[Leftfield]

..... and over $20 she goes!

Fab day for holders!

[sb9]

Another week and we're into 20s range and since there wasn't any update from company, I'm picking probably looking at an update in May with forecast for whole of FY20.

[GOAT]

my only regret is that I didn't buy more :)

Where does everyone see this share price going in say 3-5 years? I'd assume the growth at some point will start to slow.

[Leftfield]

Where does everyone see this share price going in say 3-5 years? I'd assume the growth at some point will start to slow.

In the last 5 years ATM's SP has gone from .50c to $20. That sort of phenomenal growth (as a small cap company becomes a big cap company) has been great for some investors, however, it is unusual (not only in NZX or ASX terms but worldwide) and it is unlikely to be repeated in the next 5 years.

Where will the SP go from here? If you are into TA, just take the 5 year chart and extend the trend lines. Alternately, take the attached table and start adding in your projections. I suspect it will take at least 3 years for the SP to double from $20 to $40 (still a good return and even better if you are working from a .50c baseline ) but as always, DYOR and take responsibility for your own decisions.

11360
11361

If you are wanting to repeat the success of the 50c investors in ATM in the next 5 years, I suspect you are going to have to find another small cap company with great management, great product, and great prospects..... when you find that company let me know!!

[winner69]

This Geoffrey guy sure has the Midas touch

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/ATM/352000/321191.pdf


Leftfield pretty good on his forecast revenues

[Leftfield]

Trading update today....... here's the link. (https://www.nzx.com/announcements/352000)

Notwithstanding this uncertainty, we anticipate revenue for FY20 in the range of $1,700 million to $1,750 million.
Full year EBITDA margin is now anticipated to be above that advised in February and in the range of 31% to 32%. This assumes that planned marketing activity for FY20 of $200 million, weighted to 2H20, will be fully expended prior to year-end.
Our 2H20 EBITDA margin is therefore expected to be higher than previously anticipated. This is primarily a result of:
• Higher revenue, and hence gross margin, from higher margin nutritional products, in part due to consumer pantry stocking in 3Q20 compared to expectations;
• Favourable impact arising from exchange rate movement in USD:NZD impacting on China segment revenue and earnings; and
• Lower than expected costs for travel, and other costs as a consequence of a delay in planned recruitment, due to COVID-19 restrictions.

Nicely balanced update IMHO.

[winner69]

Share price $25 by end of May

[sb9]

Share price $25 by end of May

May be bit more, may be its time for Couta1 to appear back here.

[sb9]

Trading update today....... here's the link. (https://www.nzx.com/announcements/352000)

Notwithstanding this uncertainty, we anticipate revenue for FY20 in the range of $1,700 million to $1,750 million.
Full year EBITDA margin is now anticipated to be above that advised in February and in the range of 31% to 32%. This assumes that planned marketing activity for FY20 of $200 million, weighted to 2H20, will be fully expended prior to year-end.
Our 2H20 EBITDA margin is therefore expected to be higher than previously anticipated. This is primarily a result of:
• Higher revenue, and hence gross margin, from higher margin nutritional products, in part due to consumer pantry stocking in 3Q20 compared to expectations;
• Favourable impact arising from exchange rate movement in USD:NZD impacting on China segment revenue and earnings; and
• Lower than expected costs for travel, and other costs as a consequence of a delay in planned recruitment, due to COVID-19 restrictions.

Nicely balanced update IMHO.

Man, that's some update....GB sure knows how to play this game.

[bull....]

think the biggest risk is the pantry stocking as they have highlighted. guess it depends on how big customer pantries are? and when they stop buying to use the pantry stock. no wonder they cant put a figure on this to hard to know

[Raz]

Share price $25 by end of May

Winner even excited..hmmm only problem is this makes my portfolio look more out of balance as it shoots up..

[sb9]

think the biggest risk is the pantry stocking as they have highlighted. guess it depends on how big customer pantries are? and when they stop buying to use the pantry stock. no wonder they cant put a figure on this to hard to know

Geoff always throws in a bit of caution in updates, just so that its not overly bullish....

[sb9]

Winner even excited..hmmm only problem is this makes my portfolio look more out of balance as it shoots up..

My portfolio has always been out of balance for past few year with A2 being biggest...:p

[bull....]

My portfolio has always been out of balance for past few year with A2 being biggest...:p

a2 , fph really have been the safe havens for ones portfolio since the pandemic started. but if you picked the right stocks for the bounce you made far more money

[sb9]

a2 , fph really have been the safe havens for ones portfolio since the pandemic started. but if you picked the right stocks for the bounce you made far more money

Pretty much guaranteed now for A2 to be included in ASX 50 with an outside chance of making into ASX 20 at next rebalance which is in June. It'll really be more safe haven then...

[Muppett]

Geoff always throws in a bit of caution in updates, just so that its not overly bullish....

Yeah ...........as he states:

"We are unable to estimate the timing and extent to which pantry stocking may unwind".

"Given the COVID-19 situation, the outlook for both revenue and earnings remains uncertain".

"Furthermore, significant uncertainty remains around the potential impact on supply chains and consumer demand in our core markets and the resulting financial impact on our performance for the balance of the financial year".

Maybe all the revenue expectations already priced in as GB states:
"It is unlikely that these factors will be sustained as these unprecedented
circumstances begin to unwind".

***
Hope SP goes up and stays up, but maybe .....

[allfromacell]

think the biggest risk is the pantry stocking as they have highlighted. guess it depends on how big customer pantries are? and when they stop buying to use the pantry stock. no wonder they cant put a figure on this to hard to know

Yes, previous consensus was around 1687M, the mid point of this forecast is 1725M so 2% higher. I imagine this is mostly priced in however the increased margins are nice but not exactly unexpected. I think there will inevitably be a slower quarter coming up as pantry buying is exhausted, when this slower quarter comes the SP will fall and that will be a good time to buy.

I wouldn't buy into any rally today if there is one but then I would say that after selling out at $20. Well done to long term holders, this is still a great update but with a market cap of $14B great is the bare minimum.

[Leftfield]

a2 , fph really have been the safe havens for ones portfolio since the pandemic started. but if you picked the right stocks for the bounce you made far more money

Not much use looking at performance since the pandemic started.

Always best to look at your average returns over 5 years...... and in that measure I v much doubt any NZX share has outperformed A2 ( not to mention taxable short term trading v non taxable long term cap gains.)

[bull....]

Not much use looking at performance since the pandemic started.

Always best to look at your average returns over 5 years...... and in that measure I v much doubt any NZX share has outperformed A2 ( not to mention taxable short term trading v non taxable long term cap gains.)

correct long term gains from a2 are really great. but i would find it hard to believe a large % of people who got in under 50c are still holders.

anyway looks like the market had priced in the good sales increase from corona but might be worried about the impact of the full cupboards of stock

[Leftfield]

correct long term gains from a2 are really great. but i would find it hard to believe a large % of people who got in under 50c are still holders.

I actually think you are wrong...... there are a lot of under 50c holders still holding, it's just that they don't post much on this forum. I'm aware of family members of the original founders who continue to hold substantial holdings. Then there is staff and ex staff, directors and ex directors.......Good reminder to check the current register (but I'm too busy today to oblige.)

[davflaws]

Winner even excited..hmmm only problem is this makes my portfolio look more out of balance as it shoots up..

What an awful problem!

[sb9]

From today's AFR...

"Morgans analyst Belinda Moore said a2 Milk's margin guidance implied EBITDA of $NZ527 million to $NZ560 million, up 27.4 per cent to 35.4 per cent on the previous corresponding period. This is ahead of consensus of $NZ522 million."

https://www.afr.com/companies/manufacturing/a2-milk-says-china-open-for-business-but-risks-remain-20200422-p54m1j

[dreamcatcher]

My thoughts 17th April regarding SP moving between $20 - $22 been the new norm looks to be playing out ?

Don't be short changed ............GS NEW TP NZ$22.30 A$21.40

To-days exchange rate of .942 A$21.40 = NZ$22.71...............NICE :t_up:

[see weed]

Pretty much guaranteed now for A2 to be included in ASX 50 with an outside chance of making into ASX 20 at next rebalance which is in June. It'll really be more safe haven then...
That sounds good:t_up:.

[see weed]

From today's AFR...

"Morgans analyst Belinda Moore said a2 Milk's margin guidance implied EBITDA of $NZ527 million to $NZ560 million, up 27.4 per cent to 35.4 per cent on the previous corresponding period. This is ahead of consensus of $NZ522 million."

https://www.afr.com/companies/manufacturing/a2-milk-says-china-open-for-business-but-risks-remain-20200422-p54m1j
This also sounds good, but the print faded out after the first paragraph.

[see weed]

My thoughts 17th April regarding SP moving between $20 - $22 been the new norm looks to be playing out ?

Don't be short changed ............GS NEW TP NZ$22.30 A$21.40

To-days exchange rate of .942 A$21.40 = NZ$22.71...............NICE :t_up:
That also sounds good, but who is GS New TP?

[Gerald]

That also sounds good, but who is GS New TP?

Goldman Sachs target price, "wouldn't pay too much attention to these clowns" - Couta1

https://www.streetinsider.com/Analyst+PT+Change/a2+Milk+Co+%28ATM%3ANZ%29+%28ACOPF%29+PT+Raised+to +NZD22.30+at+Goldman+Sachs/16772259.html

[sb9]

This also sounds good, but the print faded out after the first paragraph.

Need subscription to read full article as it’s paywalled..

[see weed]

Need subscription to read full article as it’s paywalled..
All good, and thank you longy for pming the article.

[dreamcatcher]

UBS estimate up 6-8%. Guidance upgraded post strong Q3,

Retain Buy with view long runway remains TP NZ$22 seems most brokers have upgraded around these levels

Would imagine most HOLDERS happy with upgrades

[longy]

All good, and thank you longy for pming the article.

Thought I would share a short summary of the article: Mostly very positive. Not a lot of new info that has not already mentioned in the announcement. Except for the forecast from Morgan which another member has already posted here.

It mentioned the following points.

The distributions channels have resumed in China.
Ongoing sales growth across key regions was supported by increased levels of marketing in China and the US.
The spending $NZ200 million ($194 million) this year on marketing, more than 50%lf of that going towards ads in China.
They are not expecting any issues with its manufacturing partner Synlait, it has built up an inventory position as a buffer.
A few other positive stuff like exchange rate is benefiting A2, Cost has reduce due to lock-down... etc

The uncertainties which may affect A2 which mentioned in the article are:

U turn of Covid in China - But A2 is regarding as essential and the management has already equipped and ready geared up to deal with this.
Also already mention by the CEO that they are unable to estimate the timing and extent to which pantry stocking may unwind. But Mr Babidge is targeting an EBITDA margin "in the order of 30 per cent in the medium term

[whome]

Thanks longy

[see weed]

Thanks longy
Hi whome. Long time no see, looking forward to next st meeting. Sold a couple of thousand ATM yesterday for $20, purchased early Feb. for $14.45:t_up:.

[see weed]

Pretty much guaranteed now for A2 to be included in ASX 50 with an outside chance of making into ASX 20 at next rebalance which is in June. It'll really be more safe haven then...
Hi sb9, where do you think sp will go when they include a2 to the ASX 50 or ASX 20?

[sb9]

Hi sb9, where do you think sp will go when they include a2 to the ASX 50 or ASX 20?

No crystal ball here, but my pick would be it'll consolidate around $22-$23 mark until FY20 results are announced late Aug. And rebalance now postponed until Jun and am sure index tracking funds would've worked out A2's inclusion in ASX 50 the least and would begin accumulation accordingly. It might be very different story if it gets shunted directly into ASX 20, which highly unlikely imo.

Majority of broker upgrades that came from AUS seem to in the range of $21-$22 (Aus) with some not that bullish.

[whome]

See weed, also looking forward to ST meeting and getting together. Been a while. Will need 10+ tables at Dr Rudi’s to keep our 2 metre distance! A2 has been good to you. Keep it going. Outlook still promising.

[see weed]

See weed, also looking forward to ST meeting and getting together. Been a while. Will need 10+ tables at Dr Rudi’s to keep our 2 metre distance! A2 has been good to you. Keep it going. Outlook still promising.
Yes they have been good on the whole, but have been stung a couple of times.

[sb9]

Looks like A2 train has departed the $20 station for now, might revisit in the short term but in clear uptrend for longer term.

[see weed]

Just scored some 40 min ago for $14.40:t_up:.
From 4/2/20. Just sold that block of 1100 shares for $20.14c That was one of my 16 blocks of ATM bought between 3/1/20 and 18/2/20. lowest paid 14.40 to highest 16.91 on 18/2/20. Thank you bull, for your support;).

[see weed]

Where have all the shorters gone, long time passing Where have all the shorters gone, long time ago Where have all the shorters gone, young traders have picked them everyone Oh, when will they ever learn? Oh, when will they ever learn?....... ps Am looking forward to the return of the shorters:)

[sb9]

Chair Mr Hearn pocketed a nice pay cheque of more than $37 ml from his share sale over last week. And bit of explanatory notes for his sale of shares...

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/352264

As Mr Hearn is a UK tax resident, significant tax liabilities arise on the exercise of Options (rather than on vesting of the Options or sale of the Ordinary Shares). Under the terms of the Options Mr Hearn is liable not only for his personal tax charges but also for the associated tax liabilities that arise for the company. As a result, Mr Hearn’s total tax liability is well in excess of 50%. Those tax liabilities are required to be remitted to HM Revenue & Customs within a short period of time following the exercise of the Options.
The on-market sale of shares detailed in the attached disclosure notices was necessary for Mr Hearn to be able to meet those tax liabilities together with the associated transaction costs.

Mr Hearn continues to hold 1,305,000 ordinary shares in the Company.
Mr Hearn has indicated to the Company that were it not for the specific terms of the Options and the UK tax compliance issues, he would not have exercised these Options nor sold any shares at this time.

[k14]

Mr Hearn continues to hold 1,305,000 ordinary shares in the Company.
Mr Hearn has indicated to the Company that were it not for the specific terms of the Options and the UK tax compliance issues, he would not have exercised these Options nor sold any shares at this time.
Well if that was the case, why did he sell an additional ~$18m worth of shares over and above his tax liability?

[davflaws]

Well if that was the case, why did he sell an additional ~$18m worth of shares over and above his tax liability?

As a complete novice in tax matters, I wonder if it has something to do with the fact that 18 is roughly half of 37.

Or is that like injecting bleach?

[peat]

Something about ATM and tax liabilities

[Cadalac123]

Surely people realise he sold it to get some cash under the bed. How naive do you have to be. 63c -->$20 yeah sure m8 tAx ObLIGatiOns

[dompf]

Surely people realise he sold it to get some cash under the bed. How naive do you have to be. 63c -->$20 yeah sure m8 tAx ObLIGatiOns

He might be planning to build a deck. A big deck

[sb9]

Well if that was the case, why did he sell an additional ~$18m worth of shares over and above his tax liability?

Unfortunately, I'm not privy to his personal financial situation and I wouldn't begrudge him for selling his shares at ripe age of 64 or so....we all do the same only difference being scale of quantity, that's it.

[longy]

I'd say good on him. I would do the same.

[Cadalac123]

Unfortunately, I'm not privy to his personal financial situation and I wouldn't begrudge him for selling his shares at ripe age of 64 or so....we all do the same only difference being scale of quantity, that's it.

I 100% would have done the same thing especially taking his age into consideration and the current macro economic situation

[Ted2]

I 100% would have done the same thing especially taking his age into consideration and the current macro economic situation

To be fair he still has 1.305M shares @ circa $20 - $26M not bad to keep in just one stock!

[Leftfield]

Stats for NZ exports in March 2020 out. See comment here. (https://www.stats.govt.nz/news/kiwifruit-gives-march-exports-a-golden-glow)

Export values of dairy products (up $106 million or 7.6 percent) and meat (up $102 million or 11 percent) also contributed to the total rise in March 2020. These increases in values were led by:


milk powder (up $132 million)
sheep meat (up $62 million)
beef (up $49 million).

Compared with March 2019, unit prices were up for:


milk powder (up 33 percent)
sheep meat (up 9.0 percent)
beef (up 10 percent).

[sb9]

Strong finish on both sides of the ditch, almost up a dollar from day's low. Pretty resilient performance on otherwise bearish day and shorts now below 4% at 3.91% with about further 28.8ml shares to cover.

[Leftfield]

Over in HC, poster Smuglex notes that Motley Fool consider ATM a BUY at current levels in the expectation that ATM will be included in the ASX top 10 within 10yrs.

"That means looking at the bottom of ASX top ten ladder we would need to grow to a MC of $70b Aus which equals a share price of over $70."

Ssooo if ATM makes the ASX in 5yrs that's a SP gain from current levels of about 70%pa
A more conservative 10 yrs still means a gain if 35%pa.

Food for thought.....particularly for those considering an investment at current levels.

Disc - Holding.

[mfd]

Over in HC, poster Smuglex notes that Motley Fool consider ATM a BUY at current levels in the expectation that ATM will be included in the ASX top 10 within 10yrs.

"That means looking at the bottom of ASX top ten ladder we would need to grow to a MC of $70b Aus which equals a share price of over $70."

Ssooo if ATM makes the ASX in 5yrs that's a SP gain from current levels of about 70%pa
A more conservative 10 yrs still means a gain if 35%pa.

Food for thought.....particularly for those considering an investment at current levels.

Disc - Holding.

Not sure about your compounding maths there - I make it around 14% per annum to move from 19.5 to 70 over ten years. 29% over 5 years.

But still, as a holder I'd be quite content with that.

[Leftfield]

Not sure about your compounding maths there - I make it around 14% per annum to move from 19.5 to 70 over ten years. 29% over 5 years.
But still, as a holder I'd be quite content with that.

Good on you! Always good to question my maths (and brokers recommendations.)

[James108]

Over in HC, poster Smuglex notes that Motley Fool consider ATM a BUY at current levels in the expectation that ATM will be included in the ASX top 10 within 10yrs.

"That means looking at the bottom of ASX top ten ladder we would need to grow to a MC of $70b Aus which equals a share price of over $70."

Ssooo if ATM makes the ASX in 5yrs that's a SP gain from current levels of about 70%pa
A more conservative 10 yrs still means a gain if 35%pa.

Food for thought.....particularly for those considering an investment at current levels.

Disc - Holding.

I hold but I have to say that is some of the worst reasoning I have ever heard.

They think ATM will be in the ASX top 10 in 10 years, what is this based on? Then based on this arbitrary assumption, the MC in 10 years and SP growth rate have been back calculated.

Seems like the opposite of how one should go about valuing a business.

[zgnz]

Unfortunately another (albeit small) infant formula scandal in Hunan province. (https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3084271/china-investigates-claims-babies-sickened-fake-milk-formula)


Authorities in the central Chinese province of Hunan are investigating a baby products shop after at least five infants developed swollen heads allegedly from drinking fake milk formula sold by the store.

Reinforces the value proposition of foreign imported formula.

[BlackPeter]

Unfortunately another (albeit small) infant formula scandal in Hunan province. (https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3084271/china-investigates-claims-babies-sickened-fake-milk-formula)



Reinforces the value proposition of foreign imported formula.

Not really an infant formula scandal. The product the parents bought is clearly labeled as protein drink (I suppose the stuff you would get here e.g. in gyms). Apparently the shopkeeper told them it is good for babies and they have been dumb enough not to read the label.

Either a dumb salesperson or dumb parents or both. Has absolutely nothing to do with from where the product was sourced.

[zgnz]

Not really an infant formula scandal. The product the parents bought is clearly labeled as protein drink (I suppose the stuff you would get here e.g. in gyms). Apparently the shopkeeper told them it is good for babies and they have been dumb enough not to read the label.

Either a dumb salesperson or dumb parents or both. Has absolutely nothing to do with from where the product was sourced.

Right, makes sense. Thanks for the clarification.

[sb9]

Weaker NZD against USD can only mean an indirect addition to margin for A2.

[sb9]

Courtesy of HC poster mitzi...

a2 Milk: The Story of the 2,200% Monster Next Door

MAY 17, 2020 (https://mattjoass.com/2020/05/17/a2-milk-the-story-of-the-monster-next-door/) / MATTJOASS (https://mattjoass.com/author/mattjoass/)

https://mattjoass.com/2020/05/17/a2-milk-the-story-of-the-monster-next-door/

[Leftfield]

Courtesy of HC poster mitzi...

a2 Milk: The Story of the 2,200% Monster Next Door

.....https://mattjoass.com/2020/05/17/a2-milk-the-story-of-the-monster-next-door/

Good reading, thanks for posting Mitzi and sb9.

Nice to be aligned to this "unstoppable engine of wealth creation." !!! Crikey.

Really interesting reading about the huge error of judgement that Freedom foods made selling their holding in A2 way too early.

Also nice to see ATM SP back above $20 today. Holding up very well IMHO.

[Cadalac123]

Good reading, thanks for posting Mitzi and sb9.

Nice to be aligned to this "unstoppable engine of wealth creation." !!! Crikey.

Really interesting reading about the huge error of judgement that Freedom foods made selling their holding in A2 way too early.

Also nice to see ATM SP back above $20 today. Holding up very well IMHO.




Surprisingly it just formed a strong consolidation zone during this period. The balance sheet is something to froth over. Sure, risk of overstocking meaning second half won't be as explosive in the China section but it seems like there's a general strong industry tailwind with infant formula that can be seen with Bubs too. So I wonder if it's due for another leg up provided a moderate-strong second half.

[RGR367]

An ad maybe but let's relive it again as we how all made ATM our choice then :t_up:
https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/a2-milk-the-story-of-the-2-200-monster-next-door

[Leftfield]

FYI

A doctor who improved the lives of thousands of people and played a key role in the development of A2 milk through his research has been knighted in this year's Queen's Birthday Honours.

Dr Robert Elliot, 86, made a medical breakthrough in the 1970s that extended the lifespan of people with cystic fibrosis (https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/83100454/lifethreatening-genetic-condition-cystic-fibrosis-hits-family-twice-at-once) by decades.

He also found milk from different sorts of cows had effects on human health but, at the time, Elliott wasn't all that bothered by it.

"I didn't think much of it at the time and took a patent out that caught the eye of commerce and thus was born the A2 Milk Corporation," he said.

"The corporation was prepared to pay handsomely for that patent and CureKids took off from there … it brought in a small fortune."

[winner69]

FYI

A doctor who improved the lives of thousands of people and played a key role in the development of A2 milk through his research has been knighted in this year's Queen's Birthday Honours.

Dr Robert Elliot, 86, made a medical breakthrough in the 1970s that extended the lifespan of people with cystic fibrosis (https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/83100454/lifethreatening-genetic-condition-cystic-fibrosis-hits-family-twice-at-once) by decades.

He also found milk from different sorts of cows had effects on human health but, at the time, Elliott wasn't all that bothered by it.

"I didn't think much of it at the time and took a patent out that caught the eye of commerce and thus was born the A2 Milk Corporation," he said.

"The corporation was prepared to pay handsomely for that patent and CureKids took off from there … it brought in a small fortune."

Really good story eh ...and he seemed so modest

[okay]

Hi everyone just came across this one so thought I would share it. Another write up by Keith Woodford.

'New findings published by Nature Research, demonstrating how A1 milk predisposes for asthma and lung inflammation, should bring the A1 milk issue back into focus for both consumers and farmers.'

'... the paper published by Nature Research investigates whether prolonged use of A1 milk predisposes for asthma and other lung conditions through breathing-passage constriction and pro-inflammatory effects. The short answer is that it does, and the evidence is powerful with high statistical significance.'

Rest of the article here:

https://www.interest.co.nz/rural-news/105339/new-findings-published-nature-research-demonstrating-how-a1-milk-predisposes

[Leftfield]

Hi everyone just came across this one so thought I would share it. Another write up by Keith Woodford.

'New findings published by Nature Research, demonstrating how A1 milk predisposes for asthma and lung inflammation, should bring the A1 milk issue back into focus for both consumers and farmers.'

'... the paper published by Nature Research investigates whether prolonged use of A1 milk predisposes for asthma and other lung conditions through breathing-passage constriction and pro-inflammatory effects. The short answer is that it does, and the evidence is powerful with high statistical significance.'

Rest of the article here:

https://www.interest.co.nz/rural-news/105339/new-findings-published-nature-research-demonstrating-how-a1-milk-predisposes

Thanks for sharing.....

I like that the second para mentions me...."Until May 15 of this year, there had been a lack of new scientific evidence about A1 milk ... However, new evidence has now come forward from India, somewhat out of left field."

Seriously tho' the link between A1 milk and asthma is compelling.... and possibly an underlying reason for the high incidence of asthma in NZ???

Got to be good for A2 Milk.

[sb9]

Hi everyone just came across this one so thought I would share it. Another write up by Keith Woodford.

'New findings published by Nature Research, demonstrating how A1 milk predisposes for asthma and lung inflammation, should bring the A1 milk issue back into focus for both consumers and farmers.'

'... the paper published by Nature Research investigates whether prolonged use of A1 milk predisposes for asthma and other lung conditions through breathing-passage constriction and pro-inflammatory effects. The short answer is that it does, and the evidence is powerful with high statistical significance.'

Rest of the article here:

https://www.interest.co.nz/rural-news/105339/new-findings-published-nature-research-demonstrating-how-a1-milk-predisposes


Thanks for the link, I particularly like Keith's response to one of the readers question as per below...

***
by Becnz (https://www.interest.co.nz/users/becnz) | 3rd Jun 20, 7:55pm

Fonterra could have purchased A2M for peanuts back in the day now they have to partner with them funny how things turnout.

by keithwoodford (https://www.interest.co.nz/users/keithwoodford) | 3rd Jun 20, 9:10pm

Becnz,
I do recall a discussion with a Fonterra director who once said to me, with an element of condecension, that Fonterra could buy out A2 Milk for $50 million if it wished to do so at any time. That was in about 2009 or 2010. The market value now is close to 300 times that figure. And a buyout would need to be pitched at around $20 billion or maybe more. Fonterra could still make a lot of money from A2 products but only if they developed their own international brands. Instead they have chosen to be an ingredient supplier to 'The a2 Millk Company'. That arrangement was a great deal for The a2 Millk Company as it took their key potential competitor out of the market. Given Fonterra 's current mindset, having been bruised so badly in recent years, they could as an alternative have also made significant money if they were to sell A2 products themselves on the ingredient market to allcomers. But it seemeed simpler to tie themselves to The a2 Milk Company.
KeithW

***

That figure quoted by Keith of $20bln or may be more to buy out ATM is about $30 per share...nuff said!!!

[Ted2]

Nice little piece of news. Not surprising, but it's always good to have it pointed out to people!

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/farming/121706800/coronavirus-dairy-overtakes-tourism-as-nzs-biggest-exporter-due-to-coronavirus-fallout

[sb9]

Should know by end of this week whether A2M will be joining ASX 50 index.

[sb9]

ASX holiday today for Queen B'day weekend over in AUS, so we're on our own here with no leads from ASX to follow...enjoy the good times!!!

[RGR367]

Should know by end of this week whether A2M will be joining ASX 50 index.

If that's the case, I better wait to sell some shares at a price higher than its 52 wk high then :cool: Yeah, the Market is going crazy on some shares.

[Captain]

If buying stock, can anyone make recommendation whether it would be preferable to buy on the NZX or ASX? And for what reasons? Cheers

[petty]

Dont take it from me but;
1) Trading go on the ASX (more volume)
2) Interested in impacts of currency pick according to that.
3) Investing for the long term wont matter which.

I may be wrong in my summation

[Cadalac123]

Dont take it from me but;
1) Trading go on the ASX (more volume)
2) Interested in impacts of currency pick according to that.
3) Investing for the long term wont matter which.

I may be wrong in my summation

Provided you factor in currency conversion rates and bigger brokerage trading on ASX from NZX.

Liquidity wise sometimes ASX better to trade on when dealing with dual listed stocks, but liquidity on NZX for big companies like ATM hasn't been an issue thus far. Overall though, trading over 6 figures worth, ASX in most cases better for liquidity purposes

[Captain]

Thank you both for your input - I'm mainly curious regarding any potential currency gain/loss on the ASX, considering that's not really an area I know too much about

[longy]

Thank you both for your input - I'm mainly curious regarding any potential currency gain/loss on the ASX, considering that's not really an area I know too much about

Also another point to consider is that fully franked dividend stocks in OZ. NZ won't recognize them. So it is double tax on those div.

[sb9]

Should know by end of this week whether A2M will be joining ASX 50 index.

There we've it, another step in ginormous journey with inclusion into ASX 50 eff 22nd June 2020.

[Sideshow Bob]

There we've it, another step in ginormous journey with inclusion into ASX 50 eff 22nd June 2020.

NZ market not caring at the moment - down 3.6%.

[Leftfield]

There we've it, another step in ginormous journey with inclusion into ASX 50 eff 22nd June 2020.

Amazing progress.... congrats to all holders. Looking forward to the next 5 years!!

[dreamcatcher]

Great outcome for ATM after postponed March index

[Pricey]

Really good achievement. This should give a lot of kiwis faith that we can execute on the global stage. ATM, XERO, ZURU, hopefully there are some more to come!

[tzbang]

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/farming/agribusiness/121724474/concerns-mislabelled-milk-powder-might-taint-nz-reputation

This is a concern

[HKG2301]

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/farming/agribusiness/121724474/concerns-mislabelled-milk-powder-might-taint-nz-reputation

This is a concern

You're right - the premier 'NZ brand' is critical and needs to be protected.

Which is why the odd mainland start-up which has copied the sale of A2 milk product is not really a major threat to ATM's growing business there. They don't trust their domestic milk producers, after the melamine baby-formula scandal in 2008 (and others), so only foreign brands are considered 'premium'.

Reputation is everything...

[Leftfield]

Interesting article in AFN today commenting on 'surging' ATM overtaking AMP in the ASX50 index.

Read the article here; (https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/media-updates.4489996/page-5032?post_id=45223765)

Includes further useful background on how/why ATM's 'capital light' stance may change through further investment in plant.

[theace]

Is there a scheduled market update any time soon?

[tomm]

Is there a scheduled market update any time soon?
Yes, ATM is added in the ASX50 last week. Cheers.

[Sideshow Bob]

Yes, ATM is added in the ASX50 last week. Cheers.

I think TheAce was referring to updates from the company.

[theace]

I think TheAce was referring to updates from the company. Yes, updates from the company.

[sb9]

BOOM :t_up:

[see weed]

Yes, updates from the company.
21/8/19 results last year.

[see weed]

BOOM :t_up:
I will up your BOOM with another BOOM....BOOM BOOM :t_up::t_up:

[Leftfield]

And another BOOM from me!! :t_up::t_up::t_up: Well done Holders.

(Just back from a painful dental visit.....this news just the tonic!! )

[Ggcc]

Are these fund managers allowed to purchase before 22nd or not and is inclusion an almost guarantee on a price hike for the short term

[Leftfield]

Are these fund managers allowed to purchase before 22nd or not and is inclusion an almost guarantee on a price hike for the short term

My take is yes funds can buy anytime and sometimes in anticipation of inclusion. Not always a guarantee of a price boost IMHO (depends on supply/demand), but understand there has also been a recent UBS broker upgrade.

FWIW I put my fair value of $20 to $22 after the last results so more than happy to see this eventuating. (Disc - Hold so biased and happy)

[sb9]

My take is yes funds can buy anytime and sometimes in anticipation of inclusion. Not always a guarantee of a price boost IMHO (depends on supply/demand), but understand there has also been a recent UBS broker upgrade.

FWIW I put my fair value of $20 to $22 after the last results so more than happy to see this eventuating. (Disc - Hold so biased and happy)

Finished almost on day's high at 20.32, here's to :t_up::D:t_up::D

[Ggcc]

Looks like the action begins at midday. Big purchases and sell offs happening on open.

[whatsup]

ATH $ 21-00 + wow WOW wow !!! well done all holders.

[Leftfield]

.........
FWIW I put my fair value of $20 to $22 after the last results so more than happy to see this eventuating. (Disc - Hold so biased and happy)

WOWZA!! :t_up:

[Ted2]

Ride your winners.............. :t_up: :t_up: :t_up:

Had a nice gif of a horse with a No 2 winning but couldn't insert it bugger - it seemed very appropriate today!

[suse]

How many of you are new millionaires (on paper at least) as a result of hanging on to stock you bought early.

I sort of regret getting out at 10 but I was a late starter to the party and needed some money out. . If they had paid dividends I probably would have hung around. Nonetheless I congratulate you all for your dogged belief.

[Leftfield]

How many of you are new millionaires (on paper at least) as a result of hanging on to stock you bought early.
I sort of regret getting out at 10 but I was a late starter to the party and needed some money out. . If they had paid dividends I probably would have hung around. Nonetheless I congratulate you all for your dogged belief.

Modesty prevents me from saying, but suffice it to say when I started investing, my total investments were 20% my home's value. These days my total portfolio is over twice my home's value. ( I live in a shed LOL!)

Learn from your regrets...... and you were not alone......If you go back on this thread you will see that there were some big names who got out too early and some then spent considerable dogged time slagging the company (and management.) There are also many who stick to their belief in the safety of dividend/yield stocks.

[sb9]

Speculation in the Australian y'day, don't think they're looking to take control of entire company but just ownership of two assets..

a2 Milk may have its eye on Synlait’s infant milk formula assets in New Zealand, according to Bell Potter.

In a note to clients, analyst Jonathan Snape notes that the milk formula maker had been clear in its desire to gain exposure to the wider supply chain, and could take a direct ownership holding in two of Synlait’s assets in NZ.

[Leftfield]

Speculation in the Australian y'day, don't think they're looking to take control of entire company but just ownership of two assets..

a2 Milk may have its eye on Synlait’s infant milk formula assets in New Zealand, according to Bell Potter.

In a note to clients, analyst Jonathan Snape notes that the milk formula maker had been clear in its desire to gain exposure to the wider supply chain, and could take a direct ownership holding in two of Synlait’s assets in NZ.


Interesting.... could be Pokeno and the Auckland airport plant? Pure speculation of course.
Also, Fonterra are in the midst of a massive review of their operations...... interesting times ahead.

[Mr Slothbear]

Speculation in the Australian y'day, don't think they're looking to take control of entire company but just ownership of two assets..

a2 Milk may have its eye on Synlait’s infant milk formula assets in New Zealand, according to Bell Potter.

In a note to clients, analyst Jonathan Snape notes that the milk formula maker had been clear in its desire to gain exposure to the wider supply chain, and could take a direct ownership holding in two of Synlait’s assets in NZ.



unless they give valid detailed reasons for wanting to do that I really don’t see the merit.

would prefer they take small synlait sized stakes in other processers they use e.g in canada, USA as they’ve previously flagged they were looking at doing

[Leftfield]

ATM sponsoring Covid vaccine trials.

11708

[Mr Slothbear]

Just read the article involving jonathan snape and it sounds like complete hogwash he has zero idea whats going on.

maybe hes trying to compete with Sam Teager for quality contribution :D

[sb9]

Per few posters updates on HC, looks like A2 had absolutely smashed on recent 618 (18th June) festival on JD.com website.

[Bjauck]

How many of you are new millionaires (on paper at least) as a result of hanging on to stock you bought early.

I sort of regret getting out at 10 but I was a late starter to the party and needed some money out. . If they had paid dividends I probably would have hung around. Nonetheless I congratulate you all for your dogged belief.

I only have about a third of my original holding now. Otherwise it would have comprised over 50% of my financial assets. It has been a good hedge against the Covid measures.

[Mr Slothbear]

That article / rumour has been sitting at the back of my mind getting chewed over and I now think there could be the possibility of some kind of capital injection from A2 related to synlaits court case and potential need to settle outside court as I’m sure a big disruption to the large increase in imf supply in Waikato would not suit A2.

overall I hope its just a rumour and comes to nothing

[sb9]

That article / rumour has been sitting at the back of my mind getting chewed over and I now think there could be the possibility of some kind of capital injection from A2 related to synlaits court case and potential need to settle outside court as I’m sure a big disruption to the large increase in imf supply in Waikato would not suit A2.

overall I hope its just a rumour and comes to nothing

How is this for another rumour going round in Aus media...

THE A2 MILK COMPANY IS BELIEVED TO BE POSITIONING ITSELF TO CAPITALISE ON ITS BUOYANT SHARE PRICE, WITH THE BUSINESS UNDERSTOOD TO BE ONE OF THE FINAL CONTENDERS IN THE COMPETITION TO BUY THE $NZ400M ($375M) MATAURA VALLEY MILK COMPANY IN NEW ZEALAND.

IT IS BELIEVED A2 IS ONE OF ONLY A HANDFUL OF PARTIES IN THE MIX FOR THE ASSET, WITH SOME QUESTIONING WHETHER THE $14BN GROUP COULD BE THE STRONGEST CONTENDER.
MATAURA VALLEY MILK, BASED ON THE SOUTH ISLAND, WAS PUT UP FOR SALE THROUGH MACQUARIE CAPITAL, WITH AN INFORMATION MEMORANDUM CIRCULATING IN THE MARKET.
THE COMPANY IS MAJORITY OWNED BY CHINA ANIMAL HUSBANDRY GROUP AND NEW ZEALAND COMPANY BODCO DAIRY.

[kiwidollabill]

How is this for another rumour going round in Aus media...

THE A2 MILK COMPANY IS BELIEVED TO BE POSITIONING ITSELF TO CAPITALISE ON ITS BUOYANT SHARE PRICE, WITH THE BUSINESS UNDERSTOOD TO BE ONE OF THE FINAL CONTENDERS IN THE COMPETITION TO BUY THE $NZ400M ($375M) MATAURA VALLEY MILK COMPANY IN NEW ZEALAND.

IT IS BELIEVED A2 IS ONE OF ONLY A HANDFUL OF PARTIES IN THE MIX FOR THE ASSET, WITH SOME QUESTIONING WHETHER THE $14BN GROUP COULD BE THE STRONGEST CONTENDER.
MATAURA VALLEY MILK, BASED ON THE SOUTH ISLAND, WAS PUT UP FOR SALE THROUGH MACQUARIE CAPITAL, WITH AN INFORMATION MEMORANDUM CIRCULATING IN THE MARKET.
THE COMPANY IS MAJORITY OWNED BY CHINA ANIMAL HUSBANDRY GROUP AND NEW ZEALAND COMPANY BODCO DAIRY.

This would be a pretty reasonable rumour... either buy the plant, buy the supply, or both....

[sb9]

This would be a pretty reasonable rumour... either buy the plant, buy the supply, or both....

My thinking too going by their website info relating to certifications which fits with A2's strategy..


https://mataura.com/products/

Quality
registrations

New Zealand Ministry of Primary Industries (MPI)

China Food and Drug Administration (CFDA)

United States Food and Drug Administration (USFDA)
specifically 21-CFR-106

[Joshuatree]

smoking!

Response to media speculation (https://www.nzx.com/announcements/355018)

[Mr Slothbear]

My thinking too going by their website info relating to certifications which fits with A2's strategy..


https://mataura.com/products/

Quality
registrations



New Zealand Ministry of Primary Industries (MPI)



China Food and Drug Administration (CFDA)



United States Food and Drug Administration (USFDA)
specifically 21-CFR-106





thanks SB9 and Joshuatree for the quality posts. Certainly much food for thought!

Mataura looks like a very good prospect.

[kiwidollabill]

thanks SB9 and Joshuatree for the quality posts. Certainly much food for thought!

Mataura looks like a very good prospect.

Mataura is probably one of the most efficient plants in the world, built mainly just to make IF (only base powder at the moment) it runs with only a handful of staff...

[sb9]

thanks SB9 and Joshuatree for the quality posts. Certainly much food for thought!

Mataura looks like a very good prospect.

These are investments that will make A2 bigger and better in coming years.


Mataura is probably one of the most efficient plants in the world, built mainly just to make IF (only base powder at the moment) it runs with only a handful of staff...

Yes, they do not have canning facilities at the moment, not sure how easy is it to add one to existing capabilities.

[dobby41]

These are investments that will make A2 bigger and better in coming years.

Yes, they do not have canning facilities at the moment, not sure how easy is it to add one to existing capabilities.

Doesn't it increase their risk though?
Much more capital intensive whereas their capital light model has, so far, treated them well.

[Leftfield]

Missed the 'plant acquisition' fun yesterday, and have mixed feelings about ATM becoming a true manufacturer.

SH have done well out of ATM's current 'capital light model' and will need convincing that any acquisition is a good move.

That said... there has been an interesting article in the South China News re increased demand for IF. There are some fears re booming lactoferrin sales too. See it here. (https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3089650/china-protein-milk-powder-imports-australia-new-zealand-jump)

One highlight...

"In New Zealand, export volumes are expected to grow by 40 per cent this year to 7 million cans from 5 million cans last year, according to China infant formula market consultant Jane Li.

One New Zealand milk powder manufacturer told Li in February that it had received three times as many orders in the first two months of the year than it did for the whole of 2019"

[kiwidollabill]

Yes, they do not have canning facilities at the moment, not sure how easy is it to add one to existing capabilities.

Built with that in mind... only aspect of it thats not modern is a great big coal boiler....

[Oliver Mander]

Doesn't it increase their risk though?
Much more capital intensive whereas their capital light model has, so far, treated them well.

I think they will be trying to address their 'supply chain' risks through this model. ATM's core products that drives their sales are produced by someone else; it therefore makes sense to have some modicum of control/influence as to what gets produced. Can do that through standards and monitoring, but now that ATM is selling a lot, ownership is one of the models that makes sense.

The trade-off is that you now need to earn a return on that capital (that's the 'return risk' you are thinking about). It's a trade-off, but I would have thought that as they get larger their supply chain risk is increasing rapidly, at a rate far greater than any risk they are incurring from not achieving returns on capital.

[dobby41]

The trade-off is that you now need to earn a return on that capital (that's the 'return risk' you are thinking about). It's a trade-off, but I would have thought that as they get larger their supply chain risk is increasing rapidly, at a rate far greater than any risk they are incurring from not achieving returns on capital.

Also, the management of a dairy plant is quite different to the management that they do now.

[kiwidollabill]

I think they will be trying to address their 'supply chain' risks through this model. ATM's core products that drives their sales are produced by someone else; it therefore makes sense to have some modicum of control/influence as to what gets produced. Can do that through standards and monitoring, but now that ATM is selling a lot, ownership is one of the models that makes sense.

The trade-off is that you now need to earn a return on that capital (that's the 'return risk' you are thinking about). It's a trade-off, but I would have thought that as they get larger their supply chain risk is increasing rapidly, at a rate far greater than any risk they are incurring from not achieving returns on capital.

That, and more A2 milk will be coming off farm, if they dont buy those milk pools then someone else will. They cant take that approach forever but extends the moat further.

[tomm]

https://nz.finance.yahoo.com/news/masterchef-coralflower-mystery-box-immunity-challenge-225614076.html

A2MILK : MASTERCHEF'S CHOICE.

[Oliver Mander]

That, and more A2 milk will be coming off farm, if they dont buy those milk pools then someone else will. They cant take that approach forever but extends the moat further.

Good point kiwidollabill.

dobby, agree it's a new capability, but by buying into an existing producer, and as long as they give the manufacturers a seat at the top table, that reduces the risk markedly. They will also have gained enough knowledge/visibility of production capability thru their Synlait partnership.

[Sideshow Bob]

https://nz.finance.yahoo.com/news/masterchef-coralflower-mystery-box-immunity-challenge-225614076.html

A2MILK : MASTERCHEF'S CHOICE.

They have been sponsors for a good couple of years. Those TV series don't do anything for nothing....

[Leftfield]

Interesting discussion re why ATM might be looking at buying processing plant.... see here FYI (https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/media-updates.4489996/page-5094?post_id=45405530)

"( ATM) will soon be sitting on nearly $1B NZ in COH which would be lucky to be returning much over 1% return for them. If they were successful in acquiring the new shiny state of the art IF plant that is ready to go I am assuming they would be then getting at least another 25% return on their $400M outlay."

[Pricey]

Another goodie from that piece:

The very fact they are going down this path telegraphs to me they believe Synlait will not be able to keep up with the growth they expect and are forecasting to come despite the complications and threats posed by Covid-19.

[sb9]

Interesting discussion re why ATM might be looking at buying processing plant.... see here FYI (https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/media-updates.4489996/page-5094?post_id=45405530)

"( ATM) will soon be sitting on nearly $1B NZ in COH which would be lucky to be returning much over 1% return for them. If they were successful in acquiring the new shiny state of the art IF plant that is ready to go I am assuming they would be then getting at least another 25% return on their $400M outlay."



GB will make sure shareholders funds are utilised in most prudent way, he's a Master.

[Sideshow Bob]

GB will make sure shareholders funds are utilised in most prudent way, he's a Master.

No debt, and a cash mountain continuing to build - so has to do something with it. Seems sensible to plough some money into a plant, different catchment to Synlait, natural volumes for expansion etc.

Mataura Valley has been struggling for what you read in the newspaper - supply, price competitive, volumes, efficiencies. A2 would support and change all of that immediately.

[sb9]

No debt, and a cash mountain continuing to build - so has to do something with it. Seems sensible to plough some money into a plant, different catchment to Synlait, natural volumes for expansion etc.

Mataura Valley has been struggling for what you read in the newspaper - supply, price competitive, volumes, efficiencies. A2 would support and change all of that immediately.

And pick them up for a bargain price in the process...win win for all.

[Sideshow Bob]

And pick them up for a bargain price in the process...win win for all.

I think it might not be a "bargain", but would have to think certainly at the lower end of otherwise might have to pay given situation and global environment. It took them years to get that plant off the ground, resource consents, funding, partners, building etc, so a definite advantage in having something operational, that could start producing relatively quickly.

The opportune increase of the Synlait holding recently shows they will take their chance when they come up.

At least wouldn't have to worry about finance! :p

[theace]

(probably not the right thread) .... Would Synlait be considering buying Mataura instead of A2?

[Sideshow Bob]

(probably not the right thread) .... Would Synlait be considering buying Mataura instead of A2?

Think they are probably strapped enough for cash and would need their major shareholders to pony up.

[Leftfield]

Not strictly ATM news, but AFN reports key Aust rival Freedom Foods (FNP.ASX ) is in trading halt with both its CFO and CEO gone.

Latest woes include write down of $35 mill of outdated UHT stock, while past woes include the historic sale of Freedom's 117 mill ATM shares at prices ranging from 70c to 85c..... had they held onto these shares, they would be worth around $2.1 Billion at todays prices!

Read it here. (https://www.afr.com/rear-window/freedom-foods-down-2b-on-dumped-a2-stake-20200625-p5562s)

[sb9]

Not strictly ATM news, but AFN reports key Aust rival Freedom Foods (FNP.ASX ) is in trading halt with both its CFO and CEO gone.

Latest woes include write down of $35 mill of outdated UHT stock, while past woes include the historic sale of Freedom's 117 mill ATM shares at prices ranging from 70c to 85c..... had they held onto these shares, they would be worth around $2.1 Billion at todays prices!

Read it here. (https://www.afr.com/rear-window/freedom-foods-down-2b-on-dumped-a2-stake-20200625-p5562s)

Oh dear, what a sorry state of affairs. Hopefully some of their cheap shares went few of us retail folk who would be sitting on a decent kitty.

[Mr Slothbear]

(probably not the right thread) .... Would Synlait be considering buying Mataura instead of A2?


definitely not instead of but I do think it could be A likely option to be bought as a joint venture between the two of them where Synlaits operational knowledge is used as it would be quite a step for A2 to start running a factory with no real experience.


pure conjecture just theorising but
imagine if Synlait needed cash to settle Waikato out of court but is strapped for cash. Mataura is purchased and is put into a joint venture along with the waikato factory in exchange for cash from ATM. Synlait runs both at ground level contractually but both take a split and A2 takes the bigger margins as usual.

[winner69]

Our Jayne doing well

https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/jayne-hrdlicka-the-high-flying-executive-behind-bain-s-turbulent-virgin-tilt-20200626-p556ik.html

[Sideshow Bob]

Our Jayne doing well

https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/jayne-hrdlicka-the-high-flying-executive-behind-bain-s-turbulent-virgin-tilt-20200626-p556ik.html

i did wonder if she was involved when I saw Bain was having a crack at Virgin.

[Leftfield]

A possible reason for ATM's uptick today.........

A2 Milk Company Ltd (ASX: A2M) (https://www.********.au/tickers/asx-a2m/)

According to a note out of Citi, its analysts have retained their buy rating and $21.50 price target on this fresh milk and infant formula company’s shares.

Nice to see Citi supporting my estimated 'fair value' (even better that this is in $A.)

Not that I'm too fussed on Citi..... or most other broker recommendations! So DYOR.

[Leftfield]

Food for thought posted by Mitizi on HC......

Interesting comparison with NZ's largest company by capitilisation,Fisher & Paykel Healthcare (FPH).
Full year report out today....Rev of $1.26b,NPAT of $287.3m.
Their P/E is 78.78,EPS .406.
Shares on issue 574,635,779.Share price $33.50NZ

A2 on NZX,Current P/E of 44.66, EPS .43
Shares on issue 739,830.Share price $19.76(NZX)

That means A2 should be priced @ approx $26(NZX)
And we know those figures will be knocked out of the park come report day.

[sb9]

Food for thought posted by Mitizi on HC......

Interesting comparison with NZ's largest company by capitilisation,Fisher & Paykel Healthcare (FPH).
Full year report out today....Rev of $1.26b,NPAT of $287.3m.
Their P/E is 78.78,EPS .406.
Shares on issue 574,635,779.Share price $33.50NZ

A2 on NZX,Current P/E of 44.66, EPS .43
Shares on issue 739,830.Share price $19.76(NZX)

That means A2 should be priced @ approx $26(NZX)
And we know those figures will be knocked out of the park come report day.

I'm picking an upgrade to previous trading numbers sometime in couple of weeks.

[tomm]

Instos pushing the price up this morning . and droppppppppp to catch scarers, I don't see any beef at the current price.

[sb9]

Creeping up slowly towards $21 mark as market pricing in a possible upgrade and/or announcement re capital investment plans as rumored in media recently.

[Leftfield]

Creeping up slowly towards $21 mark as market pricing in a possible upgrade and/or announcement re capital investment plans as rumored in media recently.

$20 disappearing into the rear vision mirror...........nice.

[Cadalac123]

$20 disappearing into the rear vision mirror...........nice.

A lot of people get scared when stock prices get high, and ignore how the companies that reach these prices from nothing are actually making phenomenal transformation and growth. Looking forward to the next report. Undervalued provided no undisclosed headwind/political or regulatory changes till the report.

has some COVID protection stamped on it too which doesn't hurt

[Leftfield]

A lot of people get scared when stock prices get high, and ignore how the companies that reach these prices from nothing are actually making phenomenal transformation and growth. Looking forward to the next report. Undervalued provided no undisclosed headwind/political or regulatory changes till the report.

has some COVID protection stamped on it too which doesn't hurt

Agree, still a great share to have in any portfolio. I can recall days where each 1% SP gain meant cents..... these days each 1% = $2 ......and it still looks capable of out performing the NZX50 av performance for years ahead.

If the up to $1 Bill in cash reserves can earn more than zero % in the bank by turning them into production facilities returning 10 to 20%pa ... then very interesting times ahead.

A $50 share in 2 - 3 years??? The next report will give us a clue.

[BlackPeter]

Agree, still a great share to have in any portfolio. I can recall days where each 1% SP gain meant cents..... these days each 1% = $2 ......and it still looks capable of out performing the NZX50 av performance for years ahead.

If the up to $1 Bill in cash reserves can earn more than zero % in the bank by turning them into production facilities returning 10 to 20%pa ... then very interesting times ahead.

A $50 share in 2 - 3 years??? The next report will give us a clue.

:confused: alternative maths? :confused:

... or do you mean that for the 10 shares you are holding 1% up means $2 total gain?

[Leftfield]

:confused: alternative maths? :confused:

... or do you mean that for the 10 shares you are holding 1% up means $2 total gain?

Good on you BP..... as always DYOR!

[sb9]

As per The Australian, its rumored that Peter Nathan could be given reins of CEO. He's surely is the most apt appointment for that position and would carry on GB's legacy.

[tomm]

The GAP is at -43% . expecting a pull back prior 19/August/2020.

[Leftfield]

As per The Australian, its rumored that Peter Nathan could be given reins of CEO. He's surely is the most apt appointment for that position and would carry on GB's legacy.

He's my pick..... smacks of a sneaky release to test the market. Let's hope it comes about.

Here's a bit more of what is being said....

"Andrew Mitchell, director at A2 investor Ophir Asset Management, said Mr Nathan was a “first-rate corporate executive”.

“He should receive much of the kudos for managing the highly complex and multiple channels to market for the business,” Mr Mitchell said. “He clearly understands the Asia-Pac market well, having very successfully worked in the region for A2 Milk for over a decade.”

Mr Mitchell said the next chief executive would need “a deep understanding of the complexities of the Chinese infant formula market” as well as “protect the small company culture and agility that has served (A2) so well as they’ve grown”."

[winner69]

Last July our mate Couts said A2 would be $24 in a years time

I reckon he’ll be right ....what a call

Glad I’ve remembered that call when many derided him at the time.

[tomm]

Last July our mate Couts said A2 would be $24 in a years time

I reckon he’ll be right ....what a call

Glad I’ve remembered that call when many derided him at the time.

The GAP is at -43% . expecting a pull back prior 19/August/2020.

[RGR367]

The GAP is at -43% . expecting a pull back prior 19/August/2020.

Okay got you. Then what, pull up some more? Good as I got a sell order of a small bundle at 2150 so I'll either then buy before it or sell more afterwards. It's a nice feeling to have a lot of spare shares of it :p especially at this time of so called uncertainty.

[Ted2]

Great to see Tomm back. You have no idea how much we've missed you....................

If you've followed ATM for any length of time, there's always a pullback after they sprint away by a dollar or two. :)

[tomm]

Great to see Tomm back. You have no idea how much we've missed you....................

If you've followed ATM for any length of time, there's always a pullback after they sprint away by a dollar or two. :)
Thank You, hopefully you missed me for the good one :-p ! The last time I was here I quoted: $15 for ATM is going to be history. Sold all of ATM , bought RYM $7.25 , made a handsome cash and I got back in ATM and sold 2 days ago. I am currently holding none ATM.

[petty]

What are you holding?

[tomm]

What are you holding?
waitingggg...waitingg.....patient...patient...

[longy]

waitingggg...waitingg.....patient...patient...

Do they have a code name? Wai and Pat?? LOL

[tomm]

Do they have a code name? Wai and Pat?? LOL
I see the shorters are off the table of A2M . Because of this I don't think the Sp will drop significantly daily as it was. It might and will drop a dollar from ath and will bounce back strongly from there.
Yes, this stock will thrive but how far is the question.

[JeremyALD]

Is it just me or is a2 looking like one of the better value shares on the NZX despite being near record highs?

Heaps of cash, growing business / industry, with solid management. There's not many places to put cash at the moment imo, but this might be one I consider topping up.

[tomm]

Is it just me or is a2 looking like one of the better value shares on the NZX despite being near record highs?

Heaps of cash, growing business / industry, with solid management. There's not many places to put cash at the moment imo, but this might be one I consider topping up.
I agree with you, A2M has a signficant advantage about online sales globally. Due to this it's still going forward despite the fear of covid and economy break down.

[Leftfield]

I agree with you, A2M has a signficant advantage about online sales globally. Due to this it's still going forward despite the fear of covid and economy break down.

I think you are right and there is lots of other potential news to move the SP up.

....don't forget a potential manufacturing plant acquisition in the melting pot...... Mataura mentioned.... and even it's coal fired power system is looking better with a potential to change it to relatively environmentally clean electricity at competitive prices due to the smelter decision......

Possibility of a new CEO in Peter Nathan to be transitioned......

All pure speculation, but there is the possibility of quite a lot of good news to come.

[tomm]

I think you are right and there is lots of other potential news to move the SP up.

....don't forget a potential manufacturing plant acquisition in the melting pot...... Mataura mentioned.... and even it's coal fired power system is looking better with a potential to change it to relatively environmentally clean electricity at competitive prices due to the smelter decision......

Possibility of a new CEO in Peter Nathan to be transitioned......

All pure speculation, but there is the possibility of quite a lot of good news to come.
All the informations are there for guessing, but eventual it will happen anyway ,but just when and the timing releasing to the puplic may help the SP or not are totally depending on the big boys.
Last time , if George didn't release a statement predicting about the strong sales first thing in the morning, A2M would have fall 30% as others in the same day. Very Very Great CEO.

[BlackPeter]

I think you are right and there is lots of other potential news to move the SP up.

....don't forget a potential manufacturing plant acquisition in the melting pot...... Mataura mentioned.... and even it's coal fired power system is looking better with a potential to change it to relatively environmentally clean electricity at competitive prices due to the smelter decision......

Possibility of a new CEO in Peter Nathan to be transitioned......

All pure speculation, but there is the possibility of quite a lot of good news to come.

New CEO - sure. However, don't forget - the boards track record in picking new AND good CEO's is not impeccable ... just remember the sad Jane saga.

[Leftfield]

New CEO - sure. However, don't forget - the boards track record in picking new AND good CEO's is not impeccable ... just remember the sad Jane saga.

Nnnnoooo would rather forget! ;)

[Leftfield]

ATM flexing muscles with litigation on A2 copyright in three linked but seperate cases. Link Here. (https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/media-updates.4489996/page-5215?post_id=45813624)

[Leftfield]

More info on Mataura Milk see here. (https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/farming/122137635/mataura-valley-milk-needs-more-money-to-stay-afloat) Desperate for a capital injection. Interesting to see how this plays out.

[sb9]

More info on Mataura Milk see here. (https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/farming/122137635/mataura-valley-milk-needs-more-money-to-stay-afloat) Desperate for a capital injection. Interesting to see how this plays out.

Interesting how few things are at play currently. This one or any other strategic investment decision, new CEO announcement and FY 20 results and outlook. Oh man, the plot thickens...

[Cadalac123]

More info on Mataura Milk see here. (https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/farming/122137635/mataura-valley-milk-needs-more-money-to-stay-afloat) Desperate for a capital injection. Interesting to see how this plays out.

I love this company but going in this direction is highly questionable. Im all for vertical integration to push margins to the next level but not sure that mataura is the right fit.

Didn’t a2 milk increase their ownership of synlait not long ago

[Leftfield]

I love this company but going in this direction is highly questionable. Im all for vertical integration to push margins to the next level but not sure that mataura is the right fit.

Didn’t a2 milk increase their ownership of synlait not long ago

I too have concerns. ATM's 'capital light' stance has been a great success and has placed them in an enviable debt free/cash rich position. I would hate to see that position squandered.

That said, the current management team are very astute and I've got a lot of faith in them.

Also Mataura is not done and dusted....... so let's and see what comes to pass.

And yes, A2 did increase their ownership of Synlait, however I suspect the prospect of ATM spreading their risks and not having all their eggs in one basket (so to speak) is very sensible (if they can manage it.)

I bet ATM are looking hard at some USA acquisitions too. Then again, they may well steer clear of acquisitions and stick to the strategic stake route that has worked so well for them so far.

Forgive my ramblings, but it's fascinating to observe.

[tomm]

Methane rising at rates in line with 3C heating by 2100
https://www.stuff.co.nz/environment/climate-news/122127884/methane-rising-at-rates-in-line-with-3c-heating-by-2100
Rice paddies, cows’ and sheeps’ guts and landfills all produce methane by creating an oxygen-free environment where methane-making microbes thrive.
Natural sources are also a large contributor, making an estimated 40 per cent of the output, compared with 60 per cent from people’s activities.
Natural methane emissions are dominated by wetlands, with much smaller contributions from other sources, such as wild animals.
Even wild termites are a non-trivial source of the greenhouse gas, the study shows. Like cows, termites produce methane when they digest plants.

[Cadalac123]

Methane rising at rates in line with 3C heating by 2100
https://www.stuff.co.nz/environment/climate-news/122127884/methane-rising-at-rates-in-line-with-3c-heating-by-2100
Rice paddies, cows’ and sheeps’ guts and landfills all produce methane by creating an oxygen-free environment where methane-making microbes thrive.
Natural sources are also a large contributor, making an estimated 40 per cent of the output, compared with 60 per cent from people’s activities.
Natural methane emissions are dominated by wetlands, with much smaller contributions from other sources, such as wild animals.
Even wild termites are a non-trivial source of the greenhouse gas, the study shows. Like cows, termites produce methane when they digest plants.


Great tomm. I notice you like to post news articles. How about articulating how you think this will impact a2m in the short or even medium term in any tangible way.

[tomm]

Great tomm. I notice you like to post news articles. How about articulating how you think this will impact a2m in the short or even medium term in any tangible way.

Everyone has their own thinking and theory regarding to info's, news... which might lead them to their own decision on a stock. There for ,due to endless debate I won't put my own thinking on but just posting the article for people to gain or adjust their though on what is actually going on.

[NZGohan]

Can someone tell me why A2 SP crashes at 12pm on most days? Cheers

[tomm]

I too have concerns. ATM's 'capital light' stance has been a great success and has placed them in an enviable debt free/cash rich position. I would hate to see that position squandered.

That said, the current management team are very astute and I've got a lot of faith in them.

Also Mataura is not done and dusted....... so let's and see what comes to pass.

And yes, A2 did increase their ownership of Synlait, however I suspect the prospect of ATM spreading their risks and not having all their eggs in one basket (so to speak) is very sensible (if they can manage it.)

I bet ATM are looking hard at some USA acquisitions too. Then again, they may well steer clear of acquisitions and stick to the strategic stake route that has worked so well for them so far.

Forgive my ramblings, but it's fascinating to observe.
Absolutely, looking forward to 19/August/2020 . I am sure the current CEO is keeping his money where the pocket is.

[Leftfield]

Can someone tell me why A2 SP crashes at 12pm on most days? Cheers

That's the time when the ASX starts trading and the real work begins and any over-exuberance on behalf of morning trading on NZX gets punished.

[NZGohan]

That's the time when the ASX starts trading and the real work begins and any over-exuberance on behalf of morning trading on NZX gets punished.

Good to know - Cheers.

[Ted2]

Can someone tell me why A2 SP crashes at 12pm on most days? Cheers

Aussies eh!

[Ted2]

That's the time when the ASX starts trading and the real work begins and any over-exuberance on behalf of morning trading on NZX gets punished.

Not sure hard work and Aussies go together but yeah! There are occasions where we slump in the morning and the aussies bump it up a dollar - just not often enough!

[Leftfield]

Not sure hard work and Aussies go together but yeah! There are occasions where we slump in the morning and the aussies bump it up a dollar - just not often enough!

Of course it goes both ways.... some traders claim to have done well trading the differences between the markets.

Speaking of Traders, I came across this video via a HC post. He says (if I surmise correctly) that Trading in ATM/A2M was on of his biggest mistakes. In one year he made approx 100% trading A2M....... but if he had just bought and held through that same year he would have made over 200%..... and much more if he had held longer. In short he regrets trading v holding (and doesn't even mention the tax impacts!) Here's the video link FYI. (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_nN9S-TK4Qo) (and yes, he's an Aussie.)

Anyone out there with similar experiences?

(Disc - Held since before this Aussie woke up!)

[Cyclical]

Anyone out there with similar experiences?

Not with ATM (yet) but if I'd held on to every stock I've traded since March, I would be at least double the gains I've made through trading in that time, which in itself has been pretty respectable. But you can only work with what you know and I for one certainly wasn't expecting this V like bounce and associated craziness.

[longy]

Anyone out there with similar experiences?

I was one of those. I have done both... traded and held some for long term as well. I made some good money with A2 and paid a decent chunk of taxes too (it is all good). I would have made a lot lot more if I had not traded so much. But hindsight is such a beautiful thing isn't it?

[Dotbond]

Same, if i had bought and held ATM when i started trading it back in Nov 2019 i would have been better off just holding. Can't same the same for the other shares i have been trading though.

[Leftfield]

Thanks for sharing your experiences Dotbond, Longy, Cyclical. I often wonder about the relative merits of Trading v holding long.

[sb9]

Thanks for sharing your experiences Dotbond, Longy, Cyclical. I often wonder about the relative merits of Trading v holding long.

Fascinating topic isn't it. Have always kept my long term parcel in tact, however have trade small lot along lines when market has gone silly. And those little parcels have helped pay few bills along the way.

[tango]

I hold long term. I'm not going to try and time the market buying and selling

I just wish I hadn't sold down 100,000 shares at 85 cents in 2015
Sigh

[Leftfield]

I hold long term. I'm not going to try and time the market buying and selling

I just wish I hadn't sold down 100,000 shares at 85 cents in 2015
Sigh

......Wowza!

[see weed]

I hold long term. I'm not going to try and time the market buying and selling

I just wish I hadn't sold down 100,000 shares at 85 cents in 2015
Sigh
317 trades of a2 over here. Early trades around 50c to 70c. First buy in was 2/7/14. Most ever hold at one time was 357,000, but every time it went down 10c would loose $35,000 so jumped out when it went up 20c and pocketed $70,000. Still have 4 blocks of long term a2 shares left from earlier days, one of those blocks was 20,000 bought in the 50c days. The other 3 blocks were in the early $7 days. I felt very uncomfortable buying at the sp hight $7. Watched the sp go from $3 to $7 and got sick of waiting so jumped in. When it got to $9.50 and the day before the results 20/2/18, I think it was beagle who reminded me the half year announcement was the next day. So quickly scraped up some dosh and sold a couple of others and bought an extra 21,000 at 9.50 and sold them the next morning before Aussi opened for $11. When Aussi opened it went up another couple of dollars over the next couple of weeks before it dropped away again. a2 was 100% of my portfolio for a few weeks this year and that was scary, so sold half an am chasing div stocks now;).

[tomm]

317 trades of a2 over here. Early trades around 50c to 70c. First buy in was 2/7/14. Most ever hold at one time was 357,000, but every time it went down 10c would loose $35,000 so jumped out when it went up 20c and pocketed $70,000. Still have 4 blocks of long term a2 shares left from earlier days, one of those blocks was 20,000 bought in the 50c days. The other 3 blocks were in the early $7 days. I felt very uncomfortable buying at the sp hight $7. Watched the sp go from $3 to $7 and got sick of waiting so jumped in. When it got to $9.50 and the day before the results 20/2/18, I think it was beagle who reminded me the half year announcement was the next day. So quickly scraped up some dosh and sold a couple of others and bought an extra 21,000 at 9.50 and sold them the next morning before Aussi opened for $11. When Aussi opened it went up another couple of dollars over the next couple of weeks before it dropped away again. a2 was 100% of my portfolio for a few weeks this year and that was scary, so sold half an am chasing div stocks now;).
A2M even when it drop with yesterday paces , I am not worry as the shorters are gone. I have solid confident with this stock and congratulation mate!!!:)

[kerryo]

317 trades of a2 over here. Early trades around 50c to 70c. First buy in was 2/7/14. Most ever hold at one time was 357,000, but every time it went down 10c would loose $35,000 so jumped out when it went up 20c and pocketed $70,000. Still have 4 blocks of long term a2 shares left from earlier days, one of those blocks was 20,000 bought in the 50c days. The other 3 blocks were in the early $7 days. I felt very uncomfortable buying at the sp hight $7. Watched the sp go from $3 to $7 and got sick of waiting so jumped in. When it got to $9.50 and the day before the results 20/2/18, I think it was beagle who reminded me the half year announcement was the next day. So quickly scraped up some dosh and sold a couple of others and bought an extra 21,000 at 9.50 and sold them the next morning before Aussi opened for $11. When Aussi opened it went up another couple of dollars over the next couple of weeks before it dropped away again. a2 was 100% of my portfolio for a few weeks this year and that was scary, so sold half an am chasing div stocks now;).

Love it. Thanks for sharing. :eek2::t_up:

[tomm]

Very strong support at $20.95.

[see weed]

Very strong support at $20.95.
Wish the shorters would come back, but only before a2 results. Be good to make a few dollars next month.

[sb9]

Wish the shorters would come back, but only before a2 results. Be good to make a few dollars next month.

They have been very quiet for past four months around 4% or so, must be getting ready for attack soon, One thing for sure though they don't fancy their chances while GB is in charge.

[tomm]

They have been very quiet for past four months around 4% or so, must be getting ready for attack soon, One thing for sure though they don't fancy their chances while GB is in charge.
Totally Agree with you. The shorters are running away which cause the Sp steady and firm. I don't think they dare to come back either. waiting for the rocket to be lift off ....

[sb9]

Totally Agree with you. The shorters are running away which cause the Sp steady and firm. I don't think they dare to come back either. waiting for the rocket to be lift off ....

Love your enthusiasm, was half expecting some sort of update this week from the company either relating to trading or strategy. May be next week....

[JeremyALD]

Wish the shorters would come back, but only before a2 results. Be good to make a few dollars next month.

I really want some more too, but not sure if I can justify spending $21 per share. Hate upping my average too much, haha!

[tomm]

Shake, shake, shake.. the tree :)))))

[JSwan]

Shake, shake, shake.. the tree :)))))

Gosh tomm, stop shaking the tree :p

[Baa_Baa]

Who’s concerned about the ramping up rhetoric and military manoeuvres between US and China over the contested ASEAN waters and now NZ comes out against the Hong Kong situation and gets a slap back from China? I’m out, I don’t want anything to do with a company that has 60%+ reliance on exports to China when the geopolitical sh1t starts hitting the fan, tariffs, sanctions, who knows what will follow. Whatever does happen won’t be good for NZ exporters to China imo.

[JSwan]

Who’s concerned about the ramping up rhetoric and military manoeuvres between US and China over the contested ASEAN waters and now NZ comes out against the Hong Kong situation and gets a slap back from China? I’m out, I don’t want anything to do with a company that has 60%+ reliance on exports to China when the geopolitical sh1t starts hitting the fan, tariffs, sanctions, who knows what will follow. Whatever does happen won’t be good for NZ exporters to China imo.

Pretty sure China is just playing the big d**k card, where else are they gonna get their dairy/agricultural goods if NZ is gone?

[Leftfield]

Who’s concerned about the ramping up rhetoric and military manoeuvres between US and China over the contested ASEAN waters ........ Whatever does happen won’t be good for NZ exporters to China imo.

A very pessimistic viewpoint and worthy of further consideration....
however;
1.) China can not supply all its own needs and needs to trade
2.) ATM and SML have strong Chinese partnerships and any sanctions will hurt these partners more
3.) ATM and SML have options to diversify into other markets
4.) In the bigger picture, the world is awakening to China's aggressiveness.... China could be better served by a more moderate long term viewpoint.

[sb9]

A very pessimistic viewpoint and worthy of further consideration....
however;
1.) China can not supply all its own needs and needs to trade
2.) ATM and SML have strong Chinese partnerships and any sanctions will hurt these partners more
3.) ATM and SML have options to diversify into other markets
4.) In the bigger picture, the world is awakening to China's aggressiveness.... China could be better served by a more moderate long term viewpoint.

Well said, bit premature to think the Political landscape will have any major impact on A2 business side of things.

[bullfrog]

Who’s concerned about the ramping up rhetoric and military manoeuvres between US and China over the contested ASEAN waters and now NZ comes out against the Hong Kong situation and gets a slap back from China? I’m out, I don’t want anything to do with a company that has 60%+ reliance on exports to China when the geopolitical sh1t starts hitting the fan, tariffs, sanctions, who knows what will follow. Whatever does happen won’t be good for NZ exporters to China imo.

Yep, a team of 1.4b, and they’re well drilled. Been looking at SHV, and didn’t like the risks in their major growth market, esp after reading stories such as this one...

https://www.scmp.com/economy/global-economy/article/3085994/china-import-data-reveals-tainted-australian-oats-almonds

[Cadalac123]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12351852&ref=recommendedv1

amazed she even gets offered jobs
wonder if she'll bring her friends along and then sell all her shares