ATM - A2 Milk Corporation Limited

[BlackPeter]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12351852&ref=recommendedv1

amazed she even gets offered jobs
wonder if she'll bring her friends along and then sell all her shares

Wouldn't she need to travel to join the odd board meeting in Hawaii? But I guess this is the stuff for next years resignation ...

The talent pool for good directors appears to be pretty empty ...

[NZGohan]

ATM hits an all time high of 21.41 today.

[sb9]

ATM hits an all time high of 21.41 today.

How boring... :p

[Leftfield]

ATM hits an all time high of 21.41 today.

Luverly........ fab day for my wee portfolio - PLX (up 12%) and IKE (up 14%) :t_up:

[tomm]

Again very strong resistant at AUD $1950.

[sb9]

Top fund manager says A2 Milk could double or triple its market share

One leading fund manager that appears to agree is Ophir Asset Management.
Its Director and Portfolio Manager, Andrew Mitchell, recently told Livewire Markets (https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/how-ophir-spot-offshore-growers-before-they-get-big) that he believes a2 Milk Company has a “huge runway” and could double or even triple its Chinese market share in the future.
According to the Livewire podcast, the fund manager notes that the premium end of the Chinese infant formula market continues to grow even during the pandemic. This is because Chinese families are not cutting back on infant formula in difficult times.
This is a big positive for a2 Milk Company and offers “downside protection” during periods of time like those we are experiencing at present.

[winner69]

Again very strong resistant at AUD $1950.

Only a matter of time before that resistance around 20 bucks is smashed ......and then the share price will head to 25 bucks plus

[Cadalac123]

Only a matter of time before that resistance around 20 bucks is smashed ......and then the share price will head to 25 bucks plus

Geez winner you seem to be very bullish these days on a lot of stocks . Wonder if that’s a good or bad sign for the markets.

[tomm]

Geez winner you seem to be very bullish these days on a lot of stocks . Wonder if that’s a good or bad sign for the markets.
It is not an illusion but it is going to be. Watch this space it will enter $22.50 next phase.

[jallison]

Yawn........

[Leftfield]

Yawn........

Yawning all the way to the bank.......;) Boring is great.

[winner69]

It is not an illusion but it is going to be. Watch this space it will enter $22.50 next phase.

That's 22.50 AUD .....and just another step towards to 30.00

[Ggcc]

That's 22.50 AUD .....and just another step towards to 30.00
Now we know you were taking the mickey lol.

[sb9]

Now we know you were taking the mickey lol.

Not necessarily, consensus NPAT is around $390ml for FY, if they beat that and come in around $400ml + and then sp will rally hard. Additionally, US growth, capital management/strategy plans and announcement of new CEO. If its going to be Peter Nathan as widely rumoured, market will love it and apply higher multiples.

And evidence that FY results are gonna be outstanding is the low number of shorts for over past few months.

[RGR367]

Yawn........

Yeah, yawning is for those of us who have more than 50K shares of it with an average cost of just over 2 bucks :p We're so used to its upward trajectory then that we yawn now every time sp is barely moving towards the 25 bucks.

[Ggcc]

Not necessarily, consensus NPAT is around $390ml for FY, if they beat that and come in around $400ml + and then sp will rally hard. Additionally, US growth, capital management/strategy plans and announcement of new CEO. If its going to be Peter Nathan as widely rumoured, market will love it and apply higher multiples.

And evidence that FY results are gonna be outstanding is the low number of shorts for over past few months.

I was referring to Winner's overly positive attitude toward ATM, not actual evidence. I have shares in ATM and am quite happy watching from the sidelines while it grows.

[sb9]

I was referring to Winner's overly positive attitude toward ATM, not actual evidence. I have shares in ATM and am quite happy watching from the sidelines while it grows.

All good :)

[jimdog31]

Excuse my ignorance here - latest announcement from ATM relates to https://www.nzx.com/announcements/357627

Is this a a sign of anything underlying? making ready for new CEO? or am I way off?

[sb9]

Excuse my ignorance here - latest announcement from ATM relates to https://www.nzx.com/announcements/357627

Is this a a sign of anything underlying? making ready for new CEO? or am I way off?

From what I can see they've updated their securities (shares mostly for A2) trading policy for Board, CEO and other senior management. Just s standard procedure really, bit of house keeping if you like.

[jimdog31]

From what I can see they've updated their securities (shares mostly for A2) trading policy for Board, CEO and other senior management. Just s standard procedure really, bit of house keeping if you like.

Would that have been triggered off the back of a new CEO package, and as a result they realised they needed to tidy it up? just seems a bit random!

[Leftfield]

Would that have been triggered off the back of a new CEO package as a result they realised they needed to tidy it up? just seems a bit random!

I'm sure you could promote a good conspiracy theory......... or you could just accept it as 'good housekeeping' by a proven management team.

[jimdog31]

I'm sure you could promote a good conspiracy theory......... or you could just accept it as 'good housekeeping' by a proven management team.

i will humbly do the later :)

[tomm]

Last call for topppp uppp.... :)

[waikare]

Last call for topppp uppp.... :)

Or buy in...………………………...

[Srmccaa]

Report tomorrow???

[Leftfield]

New CEO announcement here. (https://www.nzx.com/announcements/357720) Frankly I'm disappointed it wasn't an internal promotion.

The Board of Directors of The a2 Milk Company Limited is pleased to announce the appointment of David Bortolussi to the role of Managing Director and CEO based in Sydney. David is expected to commence in the role early in the 2021 calendar year. David will succeed Geoffrey Babidge who has been in the CEO role on an interim basis since December 2019.

David joins the company from his most recent role as Group President - International Innerwear, HanesBrands. He joined Pacific Brands in 2009 initially as Chief Financial & Operating Officer taking over as CEO in 2014, during which he restructured and transformed the business into a brand focused, leading omni-channel retailer with successful wholesale partnerships, delivering double digit compound annual growth in sales and earnings over the past five years. In 2016, HanesBrands acquired Pacific Brands and expanded David’s role to cover Australasia and subsequently its international innerwear operations outside of the Americas. Over this period, David has been responsible for and had extensive exposure to Pacific Brands and Hanesbrands’ Asian sourcing markets, particularly China including various brand distribution partnerships in the region.
Prior to this David spent five years at Foster’s Group, where he held the role of Chief Strategy Officer responsible for corporate strategy, M&A, business development and performance improvement. In this role, David was instrumental in leading the process that ultimately led to the operational separation and demerger of the domestic beer and global wine businesses, generating significant shareholder value. Prior to Foster’s Group, David held senior consulting roles at McKinsey & Company and PwC.

[MarineSalvage]

I think its a good safe appointment - I've topped up again yesterday

[winner69]

And A$6m up front to get him (what he’s forfeited)

No doubt he will have a tax problem coming up just like Jayne

[jimdog31]

New CEO announcement here. (https://www.nzx.com/announcements/357720) Frankly I'm disappointed it wasn't an internal promotion.

The Board of Directors of The a2 Milk Company Limited is pleased to announce the appointment of David Bortolussi to the role of Managing Director and CEO based in Sydney. David is expected to commence in the role early in the 2021 calendar year. David will succeed Geoffrey Babidge who has been in the CEO role on an interim basis since December 2019.

David joins the company from his most recent role as Group President - International Innerwear, HanesBrands. He joined Pacific Brands in 2009 initially as Chief Financial & Operating Officer taking over as CEO in 2014, during which he restructured and transformed the business into a brand focused, leading omni-channel retailer with successful wholesale partnerships, delivering double digit compound annual growth in sales and earnings over the past five years. In 2016, HanesBrands acquired Pacific Brands and expanded David’s role to cover Australasia and subsequently its international innerwear operations outside of the Americas. Over this period, David has been responsible for and had extensive exposure to Pacific Brands and Hanesbrands’ Asian sourcing markets, particularly China including various brand distribution partnerships in the region.
Prior to this David spent five years at Foster’s Group, where he held the role of Chief Strategy Officer responsible for corporate strategy, M&A, business development and performance improvement. In this role, David was instrumental in leading the process that ultimately led to the operational separation and demerger of the domestic beer and global wine businesses, generating significant shareholder value. Prior to Foster’s Group, David held senior consulting roles at McKinsey & Company and PwC.


So it turns out I was on the money :):)

[tomm]

This is what are coming next.

In a trading update issued in April, a2 Milk said it continued to experience strong revenue growth across all key regions, particularly of infant nutrition products sold in China and Australia.
It said then that it expects revenue for the full year to lift by 30 per cent to around $1.7 billion thanks to strong sales growth as consumers rushed to fill their pantries with infant formula as a result of the Covid-19 pandemic over the March quarter.
In its April update, the company said it had continued to experience strong revenue growth across all regions since the release of its six-month result in late February.


It lifted its earnings margin forecast 31 to 32 per cent for the year to June from an earlier advised 30 per cent.

[forest]

[QUOTE=Left field;835088]New CEO announcement here. (https://www.nzx.com/announcements/357720) Frankly I'm disappointed it wasn't an internal promotion.

I am also disappointed, we know the next CEO David Bortolussi has no longer enough loyalty towards his present employer.
What makes the board think that David B will give his full commitment and loyalty to ATM.
The board is admitting a lack of succession planning, the company and shareholders are paying for this.

[Ggcc]

I think people are taking the CEO thing a little extreme. Sure they need someone who is competent, but under Hrdlicka ATM still ran well. Explain if you can that a good CEO matters for ATM??

[BlackPeter]

I think people are taking the CEO thing a little extreme. Sure they need someone who is competent, but under Hrdlicka ATM still ran well. Explain if you can that a good CEO matters for ATM??


Top leaders are determining the long term future of their organisation. Hrdlicka was ways too short in the job to allow an assessment what she did for ATM (unless of course sucking tens of millions of shareholder funds - salary and shareoptions - out of the company).

For an average CEO it will take something like 5 years to assess the impact of his/her actions. You recognise a great CEO in the companies long term success. Unfortunately - most leave the job after five years, e.g. they seldom harvest what they sowed.

A good CEO for ATM will ensure that they are still a sound and growing company in 5 or 10 years from now.

A bad CEO won't care ... and probably leave in another 12 months with gold lined pockets as the above mentioned starlet ...

[Ggcc]

Top leaders are determining the long term future of their organisation. Hrdlicka was ways too short in the job to allow an assessment what she did for ATM (unless of course sucking tens of millions of shareholder funds - salary and shareoptions - out of the company).

For an average CEO it will take something like 5 years to assess the impact of his/her actions. You recognise a great CEO in the companies long term success. Unfortunately - most leave the job after five years, e.g. they seldom harvest what they sowed.

A good CEO for ATM will ensure that they are still a sound and growing company in 5 or 10 years from now.

A bad CEO won't care ... and probably leave in another 12 months with gold lined pockets as the above mentioned starlet ...
Correct. That is a better way of explaining what I mean. In the short term we have no clue how positive or negative someone is to a company. We all knew the Dutch guy who was in charge of Fonterra, yet what positive value did he bring?? Maybe give a CEO lower pay and put a massive incentive package if they get targets after 5 years. Of course this will never happen as it makes too much sense and not enough incentive for 50% of CEOs who get fired from their positions

(USA statistics)

https://www.kornferry.com/insights/articles/where-have-all-the-long-tenured-ceos-gone

[Leftfield]

Our new CEO David Bortolussi has posted this message to the staff via Linked In. (https://www.linkedin.com/posts/thea2milkcompany_welcome-to-david-bortolussi-to-the-a2-milk-activity-6698763759697092608-xSvw)

Well done I thought, particularly liked the sub titles.

Must say I'm a lot happier about his selection now and as other posters have noted, we simply need to trust the selection process and give him time.

[pierre]

Our new CEO David Bortolussi has posted this message to the staff via Linked In. (https://www.linkedin.com/posts/thea2milkcompany_welcome-to-david-bortolussi-to-the-a2-milk-activity-6698763759697092608-xSvw)

Well done I thought, particularly liked the sub titles.

Must say I'm a lot happier about his selection now and as other posters have noted, we simply need to trust the selection process and give him time.

Yep David presented well - if a bit stilted - and had a positive message for the A2 team. He seems to have the pedigree to take the company forward. On the face of it he appears to be a good choice and seems genuinely enthused about the opportunity.

Time will tell of course - but nobody could possibly cause such negativity as Jayne did so soon after she started....could they?

[Beagle]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12355335
Looks to have a much better track record to take the company forward than Herdlicker.
Geoff Babidge staying on at a board level or retiring ?

I called Herdlicker as a bad hire very early on and I'm calling it now, this guy looks like a good hire.
Disc: No direct shareholding but a substantial holder of Kingfish warrants (KFLWF, potentially exercisable March 2021), and ATM is one of Kingfish's biggest positions.

[Zaphod]

The single best thing for this company right now, is a raft of large scale peer-reviewed studies showing that the A2 protein has a positive effect on general health, let alone on those with symptoms directly cause by the A1 protein. Yes, I know.... Flame away! I have my fire-proof suit on already.

[Baa_Baa]

The single best thing for this company right now, is a raft of large scale peer-reviewed studies showing that the A2 protein has a positive effect on general health, let alone on those with symptoms directly cause by the A1 protein. Yes, I know.... Flame away! I have my fire-proof suit on already.

Why would people flame that, it’s the truth, mothers milk is A2, whereas A1 is indigestible.

[NADZAB]

Pondering a few lurking questions I have about this product, and would appreciate the more passionate followers thoughts.
I come from a farming background in NZ so have a traditionalist price sensitive view of the A1/A2 comparison. I have lived and worked in China for a few years now and all things NZ I see interest me.
I live in a small back water city in China and strangely recently in my elevator A2 formula advertising appeared.
Most Chinese mothers I bring up the subject of A2 milk with know the product and perceive the product to be the best option and are seeking affirmation of that, I generally respond it’s marketing hype.

1) One of the office girls said she pays around 300 RMB per 900 gram can (66NZD) what is the cheapest price a consumer can get in NZ?

2) I believe the company has Chinese ownership, who are these companies/people and what involvement do they have in the company operation?

3) What percentage of company is Chinese owned?

4) The distribution of product in China appears to be mainly through non mainstream channels (Friends posting from overseas or buying online from overseas and shipping. Why is this still the case now after several years, is it because the Chinese “Importer” has too high a margin?

5) There appears to be supply constraint problems sourcing the product at reasonable rate in China according to most people I question. What is stopping someone shipping a container load of this to China?

6) Does A2 own the distribution company in China or is this a third party?

7) The significant Cash A2 has earned from this business appears to be sitting idle and piling up like Pablo in the 80’s what is the plan with the cash?

8) Is there a cross over with the Chinese businesses/ people involved with A2 & Synlait?

Cheers

[NADZAB]

11855

It appears 3/4 of company is owned by funds but potentially a fund like HSBC could be owned by a Chinese company. Is there any disclosure on Chinese ownership levels?

[Mr Slothbear]

10.30 and results still not out? Anyone know whats going on?

[sb9]

10.30 and results still not out? Anyone know whats going on?

You're just too eager for them, not due to be out until Wed 19th. Couple more days for excitement to begin...

[Mr Slothbear]

Thanks SB9 certainly looking forward to it :)

[sb9]

Thanks SB9 certainly looking forward to it :)

Sure, we all know that revenue was guidance as per trading update in April was around $1.7b to 1.75b and EBITDA margin in the range of 31% to 32%.

And consensus NPAT is for figure around $390ml which equates to about 0.527c EPS. Appropriate multiple will depend on their outlook statements and strategic initiatives.

[keenkiwiflyer]

Guesses on SP on end of day Wednesday?

[Ggcc]

Don’t know, but I feel I little bit of tree shaking happening

[tomm]

Don’t know, but I feel I little bit of tree shaking happening
No, its not , the current price is still cheap as chips.

[Ggcc]

No, its not , the current price is still cheap as chips.
What do you feel the share price should be. I feel we could be seeing $24 if all goes to plan in 2 days time

[tomm]

What do you feel the share price should be. I feel we could be seeing $24 if all goes to plan in 2 days time
It is my guessing , but more than current Sp of course, it is also a safe havens stocks atm. :))

[Ggcc]

It is my guessing , but more than current Sp of course, it is also a safe havens stocks atm. :))
Fair call, but you mention cheap as chips......

[tomm]

Fair call, but you mention cheap as chips......
It's just mean buying with confident :-p

[Leftfield]

Pondering a few lurking questions I have about this product, and would appreciate the more passionate followers thoughts.

I note your many questions have gone unanswered. Unfortunately this A2 investor doesn't have the time to answer them, but here are some suggestions:

1.) Keith Woodfords Blogs (https://keithwoodford.wordpress.com) on A1 and A2 milk trace the history and research behind this company v well.
2.) Read the commentary contained in the last 5 or so annual reports. (https://thea2milkcompany.com/results/)

Once you have done more research I'm sure your questions/concerns will be answered.

In the meantime, only 1 more sleep until we get the latest FY20 Annual report from the company, so you could wait for that.

As always DYOR and take responsibility for your own decisions.

[SSB11]

I'm of the view the ATM bubble has to burst sooner or later.. its basically a product with not much scientific evidence behind it to support its claim. Its riding on public perception and strong marketing and that will only take it so far. Saying that, its going very well and being run very well, and the results should be positive leading to a share rise today. But with the expectation of the good results I think the price might be built in by the time it gets there. lets see. Do I need a hard hat for my first few statements?

[bull....]

I'm of the view the ATM bubble has to burst sooner or later.. its basically a product with not much scientific evidence behind it to support its claim. Its riding on public perception and strong marketing and that will only take it so far. Saying that, its going very well and being run very well, and the results should be positive leading to a share rise today. But with the expectation of the good results I think the price might be built in by the time it gets there. lets see. Do I need a hard hat for my first few statements?

no most stocks have bubble valuations

[petty]

Haha, great call re hard hats. Full PPE required for comments like that.

But seriously your views are fair but I would counter that,

a) Don't underestimate the power of a differentiated product with great marketing. I agree re science but this has never been about science. Its been about perception and great marketing which I dont see abating. Some examples of average products with great marketing which has taken them very far include (Coke, Redbull, Louis V (plus heaps of others)).
b) The real risk to ATM is tradewars. Having a single market for its products poses significant risk. As battle lines are drawn on the US/CN tradewar it will be interesting to see how this impacts ATM fortunes. Chinese can stay hungry longer than ATM can stay solvent.
c) Counter to this argument (b) is that ATM and SML have significant CN ownership levels which should protect them slightly from an tradewar fallout.

[whome]

Good post Petty. When something like 30% of humans have digestive problems with cow’s milk it’s a ‘suck it and see’ situation or rather drink it and see. The A2 market advantage is the trust in the brand when marketing to a huge chinese IF market that destroyed their own local brands with the melamine scandals. I see A2 as the NZ version of Coke. Great marketing and 1st mover advantage around a simple message ‘try it and see if it works for you’. Clinical trials etc. leads to patents that then cost the earth to defend. I like the keep it simple approach - keep the formula and the mystique locked in a vault - just like Coke!

[silverblizzard888]

I'm of the view the ATM bubble has to burst sooner or later.. its basically a product with not much scientific evidence behind it to support its claim. Its riding on public perception and strong marketing and that will only take it so far. Saying that, its going very well and being run very well, and the results should be positive leading to a share rise today. But with the expectation of the good results I think the price might be built in by the time it gets there. lets see. Do I need a hard hat for my first few statements?

Replace the word ATM with religion and you have the same ;)

[whome]

Right on Silverblizzard..LOL!!

[Zaphod]

I'm of the view the ATM bubble has to burst sooner or later.. its basically a product with not much scientific evidence behind it to support its claim. Its riding on public perception and strong marketing and that will only take it so far. Saying that, its going very well and being run very well, and the results should be positive leading to a share rise today. But with the expectation of the good results I think the price might be built in by the time it gets there. lets see. Do I need a hard hat for my first few statements?

I completely agree. As I wrote earlier: "the single best thing for this company right now, is a raft of large scale peer-reviewed studies showing that the A2 protein has a positive effect on general health, let alone on those with symptoms directly cause by the A1 protein. Yes, I know.... Flame away! I have my fire-proof suit on already."

As you say, at the moment, this product is being driven by marketing and hype, which concerns me in with a mid to long term perspective.

[whome]

There is an old marketing text from the 70’s that is still in print and still available ‘Positioning - The battle for your mind’ by Al Ries & Jack Trout. ATM employ the classic marketing strategies espoused in it, eg A2 patents were based on the fact they did not contain the A1 protein Which immediately repositioned all other competitors milk as containing a problem. That left slow and arrogant Fonterra out in the cold.

[tomm]

I completely agree. As I wrote earlier: "the single best thing for this company right now, is a raft of large scale peer-reviewed studies showing that the A2 protein has a positive effect on general health, let alone on those with symptoms directly cause by the A1 protein. Yes, I know.... Flame away! I have my fire-proof suit on already."

As you say, at the moment, this product is being driven by marketing and hype, which concerns me in with a mid to long term perspective.
The puplic and the parents know the truth therefor the A2M is in facts as how they react to it. The big Pharmac won't do a research on it.
The shorters won't dare to touch this stock and it is going to be a panic buy today in my opinion. :)

[Hello123]

The puplic and the parents know the truth therefor the A2M is in facts as how they react to it. The big Pharmac won't do a research on it.
The shorters won't dare to touch this stock and it is going to be a panic buy today in my opinion. :)

Yeah looking forward to this afternoon haha

[44wishlists]

Latest publication by the Hong Kong Consumer Council, founding "...all samples surveyed to be contaminated with 3-MCPD, a substance produced during the refinement of vegetable fat under high heat." Including a2milk.

https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/health-environment/article/3097682/nutritional-contents-some-baby-milk-formulas

https://www.baby-kingdom.com/育兒成長/成長健康/【附詳細列表】消委會:15款奶粉全部驗出污染物攝取過量損bb腎及生殖功能-318346

https://echoice.consumer.org.hk/issue/526

https://www.consumer.org.hk/ws_chi/choice/526/infant-formula.html

[tomm]

Latest publication by the Hong Kong Consumer Council, founding "...all samples surveyed to be contaminated with 3-MCPD, a substance produced during the refinement of vegetable fat under high heat." Including a2milk.

https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/health-environment/article/3097682/nutritional-contents-some-baby-milk-formulas

https://www.baby-kingdom.com/育兒成長/成長健康/【附詳細列表】消委會:15款奶粉全部驗出污染物攝取過量損bb腎及生殖功能-318346

https://echoice.consumer.org.hk/issue/526

https://www.consumer.org.hk/ws_chi/choice/526/infant-formula.html
It is too late to down ramped mate :). it is instead help A2M because it mentioned Organic Infant Formula from Australian brand Bellamy’s Organic, exceeds the limit set by the European Food Safety Authority. and others Chinese Brand :)

[tipsy]

New ATH, looking forward to us claiming 20% share of the Chinese IF market in 10yrs time.

[44wishlists]

It's not down ramping, I am simply sharing the news with others. Have a nice day you single minded.

[Hello123]

It's not down ramping, I am simply sharing the news with others. Have a nice day you single minded.

https://media.tenor.com/images/23b875bff0290d88431de8cb75a161c3/tenor.gif

[tomm]

New ATH, looking forward to us claiming 20% share of the Chinese IF market in 10yrs time.

Record ATH !

[SSB11]

Good debate on the back of my comment. But its nice to see balanced and educated responses, many forums are not so civilized.

[keenkiwiflyer]

$25 by the end of the month.

[whome]

Good debate on the back of my comment. But its nice to see balanced and educated responses, many forums are not so civilized.
You can relax and take the hard hat off now. Good comment deserves good debate. Look fwd to the results announcement. Discl. ATM Holder, been in and out since sp was 9 cents.

[Hello123]

Results tomorrow?

[keenkiwiflyer]

Yep, looking forward to it

[silu]

BOOM http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/ATM/358216/328656.pdf

[trader_jackson]

NPAT Missed consensus by about 2% I think... and on a quick look, most metrics look to be slightly disappointing...?
No worries - share price will probably still go up... just look at SUM, NPAT down 99% and most metrics deteriorating or their worst in 3 years... share price near all time high!
All about the story (not the results) and the story with ATM has been strong for a good chunk of time now.

[silu]

NPAT Missed consensus by about 2% I think... and on a quick look, most metrics look to be slightly disappointing...?
No worries - share price will probably still go up... just look at SUM, NPAT down 99% and most metrics deteriorating or their worst in 3 years... share price near all time high!
All about the story (not the results) and the story with ATM has been strong for a good chunk of time now.

I wasn't really paying attention lately - what were the consensus numbers?

[keenkiwiflyer]

Strong results. Anyone saying disappointing is kidding themselves, especially during these crazy covid times.

[Ted2]

NPAT Missed consensus by about 2% I think... and on a quick look, most metrics look to be slightly disappointing...?
No worries - share price will probably still go up... just look at SUM, NPAT down 99% and most metrics deteriorating or their worst in 3 years... share price near all time high!
All about the story (not the results) and the story with ATM has been strong for a good chunk of time now.

Matched all April estimates so no need to down ramp! Est 1.7m-1.75 - actual 1.73. Est margin 31-32% - actual at 31.7%.

Some brokers predicted a little higher but we've all learnt they really have no idea and pluck figures out of their ***........

[couta1]

NPAT Missed consensus by about 2% I think... and on a quick look, most metrics look to be slightly disappointing...?
No worries - share price will probably still go up... just look at SUM, NPAT down 99% and most metrics deteriorating or their worst in 3 years... share price near all time high!
All about the story (not the results) and the story with ATM has been strong for a good chunk of time now. First post for a while but had to reply to this, your downramping post is utter crap, having just read the whole results report, it is nothing short of outstanding with a capital O. Disc-Currently 80% of my portfolio.

[silu]

First post for a while but had to reply to this, your downramping post is utter crap, having just read the whole results report, it is nothing short of outstanding with a capital O. Disc-Currently 80% of my portfolio.

Nice to hear from you again! I'll drink a glass of a2 milk in celebration to this result.

[Maverick]

First post for a while but had to reply to this, your downramping post is utter crap, having just read the whole results report, it is nothing short of outstanding with a capital O. Disc-Currently 80% of my portfolio.
COUTA...your back! Off to kill the fatted calf, you've been missed !:t_up::t_up::t_up:

[Leftfield]

Wowza! I'm v happy with ATM results.....see here (http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/ATM/358216/328656.pdf)

V happy that Couta has returned...... welcome back!!

V happy that USA growth up 91%!!!!! Yeeee haaa. Go you good thing!

(Disc 60% of my portfolio....)

[Bjauck]

First post for a while but had to reply to this, your downramping post is utter crap, having just read the whole results report, it is nothing short of outstanding with a capital O. Disc-Currently 80% of my portfolio. I am pleasantly surprised. Given the current conditions, I wish it comprised a higher percent of my portfolio than it actually does and that I hadn't reduced my holding.

[sb9]

Results are nothing short of Exemplary to say the least, well done Geoff and Team.

[see weed]

First post for a while but had to reply to this, your downramping post is utter crap, having just read the whole results report, it is nothing short of outstanding with a capital O. Disc-Currently 80% of my portfolio.
Welcome back. Long see no time. Good result. Rev up $400,000,000 Profit up $100,000,000. Don't you just like all those 000000s. How much they got in the bank now?:t_up:

[sb9]

And a menacing COH of $854ml as at end of Jun'20. Eye watering stuff :t_up:

[Hello123]

And a menacing COH of $854ml as at end of Jun'20. Eye watering stuff :t_up:

Yes thats impressive.

[tomm]

Welcome back. Long see no time. Good result. Rev up $400,000,000 Profit up $100,000,000. Don't you just like all those 000000s. How much they got in the bank now?:t_up:
The only stock which is driven throught the storm :)

[Leftfield]

Welcome back. Long see no time. Good result. Rev up $400,000,000 Profit up $100,000,000. Don't you just like all those 000000s. How much they got in the bank now?:t_up:

USA growth up 91%
USA liquid milk doubling!!
Overall Fresh Milk up 30%
China label IF up 100%

Further good news to come as ATM looks to expansion.....

[trader_jackson]

I wasn't really paying attention lately - what were the consensus numbers?

According to market screener (with consensus estimates last updated on 17th August 2020)
Net sales: $1.75b (actual: $1.73b)
EBITDA: $557m (actual $549.7m)
Net income: $387m (actual $385.8m) - apologies, I read on post #16514 in this thread the consensus was for $390m, but it is $387m according to marketscreener
Pre-Tax Profit: $560m (actual $551.1m)
EPS: 52c (actual 52.4c)

So yes - actually a slight miss on some key metrics - and I certainly never said they weren't outstanding results - but outstanding results is the minimum expected from a company with a PE of over 40, and hence if they are actually below consensus, well, in my view, they are slightly disappointing, but the story is still very strong and it is a great company.
Apologies if this got anybody excited, I was really only just trying to point out a few facts.

(reference: https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/THE-A2-MILK-COMPANY-LIMIT-11384022/financials/ - note they might updated 2020 to no longer be an estimate, I have a screenshot of the estimate if this does happen and people don't believe my above numbers)

[MarineSalvage]

Very happy holder here... as usual I just wish I’d bought more...

[tomm]

According to market screener (with consensus estimates last updated on 17th August 2020)
Net sales: $1.75b (actual: $1.73b)
EBITDA: $557m (actual $549.7m)
Net income: $387m (actual $385.8m) - apologies, I read on post #16514 in this thread the consensus was for $390m, but it is $387m according to marketscreener
Pre-Tax Profit: $560m (actual $551.1m)
EPS: 52c (actual 52.4c)

So yes - actually a slight miss on some key metrics - and I certainly never said they weren't outstanding results - but outstanding results is the minimum expected from a company with a PE of over 40, and hence if they are actually below consensus, well, in my view, they are slightly disappointing, but the story is still very strong and it is a great company.
Apologies if this got anybody excited, I was really only just trying to point out a few facts.

(reference: https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/THE-A2-MILK-COMPANY-LIMIT-11384022/financials/ - note they might updated 2020 to no longer be an estimate, I have a screenshot of the estimate if this does happen and people don't believe my above numbers)
Lets the market react :) as we are already a long term holder of this.

[Oliver Mander]

In context, seems excellent to me. Agree with trader_jackson that it is actually a very slight 'miss' on consensus, although the NPAT figure was slightly above my own forecasts, with the revenue being slightly below. But in context of everything else going on, very solid. LOVE the US result - that was a compelling enough reason for me to hang on over the last couple of years, and I still see that as driving plenty of future growth (even in a Covid environment).

[silu]

A quick check-up from some articles suggest that the result was in line with expectations. If they'd reported "missed" I could have seen some sell-off today. It looks like a solid "HOLD" signal to me at the moment.

[keenkiwiflyer]

I predict I, along with many others, will be buying a bit more today.

Who really knows how long Covid will last, and here we have a covid proof business at a large scale.

Take my money.

[tomm]

$854.2m in cash sitting in the bank!
Down Jones is up a record high also.

[Hello123]

Looks like tons selling down this morning?

[tomm]

Looks like tons selling down this morning?
Only small parcels ,NZ's reaction as usual :)
I will buy more , love the NZ's reaction.

[whatsup]

3% drop on opening, not what I expected !!

[tomm]

Group infant nutrition revenue of $1.42 billion, up 33.8%
• China label infant nutrition sales more than doubling to $337.7 million and distribution expanded to ~19.1k stores
• USA milk revenue growth of 91.2% and distribution expanded to ~20.3k stores

[longy]

3% drop on opening, not what I expected !!

Quite a usual trend with A2 since the early days too.

[trader_jackson]

According to market screener (with consensus estimates last updated on 17th August 2020)
Net sales: $1.75b (actual: $1.73b)
EBITDA: $557m (actual $549.7m)
Net income: $387m (actual $385.8m) - apologies, I read on post #16514 in this thread the consensus was for $390m, but it is $387m according to marketscreener
Pre-Tax Profit: $560m (actual $551.1m)
EPS: 52c (actual 52.4c)

So yes - actually a slight miss on some key metrics - and I certainly never said they weren't outstanding results - but outstanding results is the minimum expected from a company with a PE of over 40, and hence if they are actually below consensus, well, in my view, they are slightly disappointing, but the story is still very strong and it is a great company.
Apologies if this got anybody excited, I was really only just trying to point out a few facts.

(reference: https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/THE-A2-MILK-COMPANY-LIMIT-11384022/financials/ - note they might updated 2020 to no longer be an estimate, I have a screenshot of the estimate if this does happen and people don't believe my above numbers)

Currently down 3.3% - I suppose the market has agreed with me (at this point in time): that outstanding results is the minimum expected from a company with a PE of over 40, and hence if they are actually below consensus, well, they are slightly disappointing
Maybe the Aussies will think otherwise and provide support - or perhaps push it down even further.

[bull....]

results were well telegraphed so it was built into the stock prices already.. no surprise result

[tomm]

Currently down 3.3% - I suppose the market has agreed with me (at this point in time): that outstanding results is the minimum expected from a company with a PE of over 40, and hence if they are actually below consensus, well, they are slightly disappointing
Maybe the Aussies will think otherwise and provide support - or perhaps push it down even further.
They just trying to avoid sale down for profit taking.

[Hello123]

They just trying to avoid sale down for profit taking.

you think asx will push it down further?

[couta1]

you think asx will push it down further? No one can accurately answer your question, expect the unexpected in regard to price movements with this stock, manipulators and game players are forever looming.

[carrom74]

No one can accurately answer your question, expect the unexpected in regard to price movements with this stock, manipulators and game players are forever looming.
Welcome back Couta. Glad you are back.

[tomm]

you think asx will push it down further?
I think it will trade following momentum. Regarding it will be at a level $21-22 nzd

[RupertBear]

First post for a while but had to reply to this, your downramping post is utter crap, having just read the whole results report, it is nothing short of outstanding with a capital O. Disc-Currently 80% of my portfolio.

Welcome back Mr Couta, we missed you :)

[keenkiwiflyer]

Will push to $22 by this afternoon. $23 tomorrow.

[sb9]

Tree shaking over....

[keenkiwiflyer]

Thanks to those who sold!

[tomm]

Will push to $22 by this afternoon. $23 tomorrow.
That is possible , but there are a few shorts attempt , but won't last long.
*topped up more at the opening this morning!

[Leftfield]

Bit of tree shaking going on....... weak hands will worry.

Forward EPS of 60c x PE of (say) 40 = $24.00

PE of 45 = $27.00

As always DYOR and take responsibility for your own decisions.

[MarineSalvage]

I grabbed a few more thanks to the sellers

[longy]

Just going to change subject a little. A bit of an insight into the new CEO. The stage is set for him to carry on. He seems like a good fit.

New a2 Milk CEO must buy before selling


The a2 Milk Company's past introduction of an external chief executive became a "what not to do" lesson after a split on strategy, an unexpected share sale and an exit after just 18 months in the role.
On Tuesday, the $14 billion milk company – among the largest on New Zealand's exchange – appointed Hanesbrands' president of inner wear, David Bortolussi, as its chief executive after a six-month search.

Incoming A2 Milk chief executive David Bortolussi has been described as the right fit in terms of talent and "right DNA" for the company. Josh Robenstone
As part of his contract, Mr Bortolussi, who will move from Melbourne to Sydney and start the role in early 2021, will not be able to sell any shares until he owns the equivalent of one year's salary.
"We learnt from that experience – my mistake – I didn't dream we would have a situation where someone would sell their shares immediately," a2 Milk chairman David Hearn said from London about how the company was structuring its new CEO's remuneration and share sale terms. "We are now wiser."
Mr Bortolussi will succeed Geoffrey Babidge, who has been acting as interim chief executive since December 2019 when previous chief executive Jayne Hrdlicka – the former management consultant now part of Bain Capital's buyout of Virgin Australia – left the company.
He will receive a base salary of $1.75 million, including superannuation, and may receive a short-term incentive payment of 120 per cent of his fixed base salary in his first year, though performance objectives have yet to be determined.
On an annual basis, he will be able to take up performance rights under the long-term incentive plan equivalent to 160 per cent of his fixed remuneration. These will vest over three years, with conditions to be determined. Mr Bortolussi will receive an additional $3.7 million in share rights and a $1.27 million cash payment for forfeiting rights at his former employer.
Mr Hearn said he and the board members were confident that Mr Bortolussi was the right pick for the role, and selecting a chief executive was one of the most important and challenging roles for any chairman. Appointing an Australian was "an accident", with the past three candidates for the role from three different continents.
Having Mr Babidge as interim chief executive had removed any stresses around timing, he said.
Mr Hearn said that after extensive research and conversations he believed Mr Bortolussi was the right fit in terms of talent and the "right DNA" for the company, which he described as very non-hierarchical and respectful.

[Bjauck]

results were well telegraphed so it was built into the stock prices already.. no surprise result Its SP is still up 3% over the past week.

[Getty]

David Bertolucci, prev Hanes manager of inner wear, now is he a GOOD FIT, or is someone taking the piss?

[Jay]

This share has a habit of dropping after the results come out, I looked at it a number of times when results predicted to be good, and was, and noticed it drops after- may be as Bull said results built in and takes a while to pick up again

[Beagle]

Welcome back Mr Couta, we missed you :)

Hear hear, you have been sorely missed mate, welcome back ! For what its worth I think ATM is about fair value at present and the share price should grow roughly in line with eps growth in the year ahead.

[couta1]

This share has a habit of dropping after the results come out, I looked at it a number of times when results predicted to be good, and was, and noticed it drops after- may be as Bull said results built in and takes a while to pick up again Initially but check out the stats over the month following the results in previous years.

[Ted2]

Initially but check out the stats over the month following the results in previous years.

Spot on. Nothing short of a significant over-delivery on the April forecast was going to lift the price today. Good result was pretty much built in, and a drop was always the $1.05 favourite. But..........when the dust settles and sense starts drifting back, price will continue to rise. Continued strong profit growth, USA almost doubling, almost a billion in the bank....... what is there not to like about Mummy's milk? :t_up: :t_up:

[percy]

Initially but check out the stats over the month following the results in previous years.

Hello hello,nice to see you here again,you have been sorely missed.

[tomm]

A2 Milk benefits from Covid-19 'pantry stocking', posts record $386 million profit.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/122491679/a2-milk-benefits-from-covid19-pantry-stocking-posts-record-386-million-profit

[trader_jackson]

Currently down 3.3% - I suppose the market has agreed with me (at this point in time): that outstanding results is the minimum expected from a company with a PE of over 40, and hence if they are actually below consensus, well, they are slightly disappointing
Maybe the Aussies will think otherwise and provide support - or perhaps push it down even further.

Not ideal I was nearly shouted out the room earlier for merely pointing out some facts... it seems the Aussies are not liking it - A2M down over 4% currently on the ASX.

[bull....]

Aussies not liking it at all - A2M down over 4%, and pushed ATM here down well over 4% here.

there forecast was for a possible softening in consumer as well as margin decrease on this report

[JeremyALD]

Not ideal I was nearly shouted out the room earlier for merely pointing out some facts... it seems the Aussies are not liking it - A2M down over 4% currently on the ASX.

I'd like to see a company on the NZX growing at 30% p.a. with over 800m in cash with a better p/e ratio?

[tomm]

As expected the insto's knew the actually Sp in hand and now shaking the tree to harvest for the next phase LOL.

[Hello123]

Will push to $22 by this afternoon. $23 tomorrow.

I mean anything is possible right? haha

[keenkiwiflyer]

Topping up as we speak. Happy days!

[Oliver Mander]

Not ideal I was nearly shouted out the room earlier for merely pointing out some facts... it seems the Aussies are not liking it - A2M down over 4% currently on the ASX.

I'm with you trader J. Your facts were sound.

[Getty]

As expected the insto's knew the actually Sp in hand and now shaking the tree to harvest for the next phase LOL.

Or, Aussie insto's taking strong profits where they can get them, to build a war chest to tackle Covid weakened stocks?
Now, or later.

[44wishlists]

A2 Milk benefits from Covid-19 'pantry stocking', posts record $386 million profit.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/122491679/a2-milk-benefits-from-covid19-pantry-stocking-posts-record-386-million-profit



Too early for the up ramping mate. Come back and try again in 3 months time.

[pierre]

Something definitely up the nose of the Aussies today - maybe they hate seeing a NZ company doing so well in these trying times.

Tomorrow morning will probably be a good time to top up.

[Jay]

Initially but check out the stats over the month following the results in previous years.
My point was not usually good buying just prior to the results coming out, wait a bit then buy - agree should have stayed in long ago but thems the breaks!

[winner69]

A2 slightly higher sales and profits than the mighty FPH

If A2 traded on same multiples as FPH share price would be $38

Both great companies

[dobby41]

A2 slightly sales and profits than the mighty FPH

If A2 traded on same multiples as FPH share price would be $38

Both great companies

Slightly what?
I think you missed a word in there.

[Hello123]

Im interested to see pre closing this afternoon.

[winner69]

Slightly what?
I think you missed a word in there.

Did too ....higher of course

[couta1]

Something definitely up the nose of the Aussies today - maybe they hate seeing a NZ company doing so well in these trying times.

Tomorrow morning will probably be a good time to top up. Its called Manipulation by machines.

[Leftfield]

A2 slightly higher sales and profits than the mighty FPH

If A2 traded on same multiples as FPH share price would be $38

Both great companies

I like your story Winner!! Makes my v rough fair value look conservative. Only a matter of time.

( Note to self - in future do not get too excited around results time..... it's only one day. )

[Hello123]

Looks like we got some buyers this afternoon.

[trader_jackson]

According to market screener (with consensus estimates last updated on 17th August 2020)
Net sales: $1.75b (actual: $1.73b)
EBITDA: $557m (actual $549.7m)
Net income: $387m (actual $385.8m) - apologies, I read on post #16514 in this thread the consensus was for $390m, but it is $387m according to marketscreener
Pre-Tax Profit: $560m (actual $551.1m)
EPS: 52c (actual 52.4c)

So yes - actually a slight miss on some key metrics - and I certainly never said they weren't outstanding results - but outstanding results is the minimum expected from a company with a PE of over 40, and hence if they are actually below consensus, well, in my view, they are slightly disappointing, but the story is still very strong and it is a great company.
Apologies if this got anybody excited, I was really only just trying to point out a few facts.

(reference: https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/THE-A2-MILK-COMPANY-LIMIT-11384022/financials/ - note they might updated 2020 to no longer be an estimate, I have a screenshot of the estimate if this does happen and people don't believe my above numbers)

Started off the day with my post(s)/fact(s) being called "utter crap", ended the day with one of the highest volume of shares traded in the last year and the share price down 5.3%... while it was clearly a 'slight miss' in my books, I didn't expect ATM to drop over 5%... maybe flat, maybe down a few percent at most as the story is still very much in tact (and that is what matters most for high growth companies on very high PE's like ATM)
... Read into it what you will but clearly Mr Market was disappointed and thought it was more than a 'slight miss'.

[couta1]

Started off the day with my post(s)/fact(s) being called "utter crap", ended the day with one of the highest volume of shares traded in the last year and the share price down 5.3%... while it was clearly a 'slight miss' in my books, I didn't expect ATM to drop over 5%... maybe flat, maybe down a few percent at most as the story is still very much in tact (and that is what matters most for high growth companies on very high PE's like ATM)
... Read into it what you will but clearly Mr Market was disappointed and thought it was more than a 'slight miss'. Nothing at all to do with any perceived slight miss, simply an insto tree shake for there own purposes, wait for the dust to settle and watch.PS-Proudly increased my holding to 90% of my portfolio today.

[Snow Leopard]

...Proudly increased my holding to 90% of my portfolio today.

Don't do this at home kids ! :scared:

[Blue Skies]

Good commentary from Milford this evening, SP weakness today due to unexpectedly high stocks of inventory making instos nervous.
Assumed due to buyers having previously stocked up in advance of Covid pandemic, but creates uncertainty.

[whatsup]

Dropped .25 Au after the N Z market closed @ N Z $ 20.35 so where will it open in nz tomorrow ?

[Hello123]

Dropped .25 Au after the N Z market closed @ N Z $ 20.35 so where will it open in nz tomorrow ?

down we go?

[Muppett]

Good commentary from Milford this evening, SP weakness today due to unexpectedly high stocks of inventory making instos nervous.
Assumed due to buyers having previously stocked up in advance of Covid pandemic, but creates uncertainty.

If that's the reason, not even the exchange rate can stop the SP going South for awhile.

[JeremyALD]

I remember when we were here when A2 was $2.50, posted an amazing result then fell 20% in a day.

We all know how that ended!

[longy]

I remember when we were here when A2 was $2.50, posted an amazing result then fell 20% in a day.

We all know how that ended!

I remembered those days too it fell on result days more than it went up....

[moka]

Don't do this at home kids ! :scared:
Do you have one of these at home to keep yourself safe?
https://www.masksup.co/products/black-leopard

[dobby41]

Isn't there a saying - buy the rumour and sell the fact?

[sb9]

Interview with Peter Nathan following on from FY results from y'day...

https://www.abc.net.au/news/programs/the-business/2020-08-19/extended-interview-with-peter-nathan/12575860?nw=0

[dobby41]

Someone is asking 19.50 for 4120 shares - why would they do that when there are a lot of offers way above that?

[Hello123]

Someone is asking 19.50 for 4120 shares - why would they do that when there are a lot of offers way above that?

Because Dobby who would want to own A2M shares for over that price? they only increased revenue by 32.8% and expanding there growth, pathetic!

[tomm]

Nothing at all to do with any perceived slight miss, simply an insto tree shake for there own purposes, wait for the dust to settle and watch.PS-Proudly increased my holding to 90% of my portfolio today.
The man with a A2M glass in his hand.

[Leftfield]

Bit of tree shaking going on....... weak hands will worry. Forward EPS of 60c x PE of (say) 40 = $24.00
PE of 45 = $27.00..........

Over in HC Blackeyed has come up with a forward FY21 EPS of 70c. Makes my rough estimates seem conservative if that is the case. His Fwd PE of a mere 23.3 Here's his figures;
11865

As always DYOR.

[RGR367]

.................PS-Proudly increased my holding to 90% of my portfolio today.

True conviction to the A2M story! I admire that and wish I could have done the same. Holding the same belief to the unfolding story so I'll keep it at least at 20 to 30% of my portfolio too for the next decade :cool:

[tomm]

Just now some one sold 10k shares of ATM @ $20.88 is probably sitting there and regretting it :)

[Hello123]

Just now some one sold 10k shares of ATM @ $20.88 is probably sitting there and regretting it :)

The people that sold 10k+ shares yesterday at 20.50 and under are for sure regretting it.

[Gerald]

Over in HC Blackeyed has come up with a forward FY21 EPS of 70c. Makes my rough estimates seem conservative if that is the case. His Fwd PE of a mere 23.3 Here's his figures;
11865

As always DYOR.

Current PE is like 38, not 30?

[sb9]

The people that sold 10k+ shares yesterday at 20.50 and under are for sure regretting it.


Just now some one sold 10k shares of ATM @ $20.88 is probably sitting there and regretting it :)

I wouldn't count in anything yet, wait till ASX opens and that's when real action begins, expecting another down day and I hope I'm completely wrong on that.

[tomm]

I wouldn't count in anything yet, wait till ASX opens and that's when real action begins, expecting another down day and I hope I'm completely wrong on that.
It is not down but steady at an expected range level and again , expect the unexpect from this white gold stock.

[tomm]

Am I seeing it wrong : The GAP is at : -25.9% NOT -40% ???

[Ggcc]

Just now some one sold 10k shares of ATM @ $20.88 is probably sitting there and regretting it :)
Not regretting it now I am guessing. But hey I am still in for the long upward run over the next years

[keenkiwiflyer]

Australia will settle by the end of the week. Next week it will pump up. No worries, accumulate more, it’s a good thing!

If you’re in it for short term, wait 3-4 months and you’ll get that something you were probably expecting yesterday.

[jallison]

Just now some one sold 10k shares of ATM @ $20.88 is probably sitting there and regretting it :)

You speak such rubbish

[Blue Skies]

I read the shorters were piling back in due to the high levels of inventory now & high levels of sales brought forward with people stocking up due to Covid.
Cant find the shorts since yesterday, but interested if anyone can confirm this?

[Ggcc]

I read the shorters were piling back in due to the high levels of inventory now & high levels of sales brought forward with people stocking up due to Covid.
Cant find the shorts since yesterday, but interested if anyone can confirm this?

On a short rise so far

https://www.shortman.com.au/stock?q=a2m

[carrom74]

Topped up a small parcel at $19.99... A2m has never let me down.. hope the good story continues.

[MarineSalvage]

I've got a buy order in for a bit less than that... I hope it gets filled
Topped up a small parcel at $19.99... A2m has never let me down.. hope the good story continues.

[Hello123]

I've got a buy order in for a bit less than that... I hope it gets filled

I was thinking of waiting to see if it reaches 19.50 by tomorrow afternoon.

[whatsup]

sell the news really in play now, with the news out and somewhat disappointing results ( by so called experts ) there is no reason to own/buy ATM for the moment so traders/punters have decided that there is greener grass else where, read, S P weakness for a while into the future.

[see weed]

Good old a2 up to the old tricks again. If you look at the two year graph the pattern is similar. Last year sp dropped by $2.04c on 21/8/19....ATM good results day. On that day sp closed at $14.81c from $16.85c. Then it carried on to the year low of $12.19c on 7/11/19. Then it started edging up, and on the 19/11/19 AGM day sp jumped $1.32c . Then it carried on for 9 months to 18/8/20 gaining over $9 in that time. Where to this year? $15-$17 by Nov. then back up to $24-$25 by August next year? Time will tell.

[Blue Skies]

Good old a2 up to the old tricks again. If you look at the two year graph the pattern is similar. Last year sp dropped $2.04c on 21/8/19....ATM good results day. On that day sp closed at $14.81c from $16.81c. Then it carried on to the year low of $12.19c on 7/11/19. Then it started edging up, and on the 19/11/19 AGM day sp jumped $1.32c . Then it carried on for 9 months to 18/8/20 gaining over $9 in that time. Where to this year? $15-$17 by Nov. then back up to $24-$25 by August next year? Time will tell.


Trouble is, in this completely new environment, apart from FPH & ATM there's not that many companies making bucket loads of profits now.
So where's better to park some money?

[couta1]

Trouble is, in this completely new environment, apart from FPH & ATM there's not that many companies making bucket loads of profits now.
So where's better to park some money? There is nowhere better, that's why most of my money is parked right here, it's an incredibly manipulated stock and that's classified as noise by me and I ignore noise.

[kizame]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T6znRXbSMZY

Interview with Peter Nathan.

[see weed]

Trouble is, in this completely new environment, apart from FPH & ATM there's not that many companies making bucket loads of profits now.
So where's better to park some money?
A2 was 100% of my portfolio a while back. It is only 40% now. The other 60% is now chasing div stocks for a couple of months. Div season is about to start. First cab off the rank for me is CEN which is a big chunck of that 60% :).

[see weed]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T6znRXbSMZY

Interview with Peter Nathan.
Good interview for a good company.

[see weed]

A2 was 100% of my portfolio a while back. It is only 40% now. The other 60% is now chasing div stocks for a couple of months. Div season is about to start. First cab off the rank for me is CEN which is a big chunck of that 60% :).
From the last page for Blue Skies. Yes there is lots of dosh to be made in next couple of months chasing divs:t_up:.

[couta1]

From the last page for Blue Skies. Yes there is lots of dosh to be made in next couple of months chasing divs:t_up:. Doesnt mean that you are going to make any more chasing divvies over that period though than leaving it parked here.

[sb9]

If you've a spare an hour or so its worth listening to conf call transcript with Analysts following the announcement of FY results. Especially the Q&A session and you'll understand why the current downward pressure on sp. I think its only short term trend though, should track its upward momentum soon.

https://thea2milkcompany.com/wp-content/uploads/The-a2-Milk-Company-Limited-FY20-Results-Call-10008662-190820-1.mp3

[Leftfield]

ATM closing in on Mataura Milk. See it here. (https://www.nzx.com/announcements/358400)

"The a2 Milk Company (a2MC) is pleased to confirm that it is engaged in discussions with Mataura Valley Milk (MVM), a New Zealand dairy nutrition business, to explore options for a2MC to participate in manufacturing at MVM’s facility in Southland, New Zealand.

As a result of these discussions, a2MC advises that it made a non-binding indicative offer to acquire a 75.1% interest in MVM, for a total consideration of approximately NZ$270 million, based on an enterprise value of circa NZ$385 million. MVM has now agreed to provide a2MC a period of exclusivity to conduct confirmatory due diligence and negotiate definitive transaction documentation."

[sb9]

Here we go...

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/358400


The a2 Milk Company (a2MC) is pleased to confirm that it is engaged in discussions with Mataura Valley Milk (MVM), a New Zealand dairy nutrition business, to explore options for a2MC to participate in manufacturing at MVM’s facility in Southland, New Zealand.
As a result of these discussions, a2MC advises that it made a non-binding indicative offer to acquire a 75.1% interest in MVM, for a total consideration of approximately NZ$270 million, based on an enterprise value of circa NZ$385 million. MVM has now agreed to provide a2MC a period of exclusivity to conduct confirmatory due diligence and negotiate definitive transaction documentation.
The exclusivity arrangements are supported by MVM’s current majority shareholder, China Animal Husbandry Group (CAHG), which would retain a 24.9% interest in MVM alongside a2MC under the terms proposed. CAHG is a wholly owned subsidiary of China National Agriculture Development Group, which is also the parent company of a2MC’s strategic partner in China, CSFA Holdings Shanghai, Co., Ltd. (China State Farm).
Chief Executive Officer, Geoff Babidge said: “As previously announced, due to the increasing scale of our infant nutrition business, we have been assessing participation in manufacturing capacity and capability. The potential investment in Mataura Valley Milk’s recently commissioned facility, alongside China Animal Husbandry Group, aligns with this strategic objective as we look to complement and build upon our current strategic relationships with Synlait Milk and Fonterra Co-operative Group, which remain in place. Our intention would be to invest further to establish blending and canning capacity at Mataura’s facility to support the establishment of a fully integrated manufacturing plant for infant nutrition.”
The discussions with MVM are ongoing and remain incomplete, with any potential transaction subject to further due diligence, negotiation of definitive agreements, and requisite regulatory and third party approvals. Any transaction that results from the current discussions is expected to be settled towards the end of a2MC’s FY21 and would be funded entirely from existing cash reserves.

[Sideshow Bob]

Looks like a sound move - doesn't impinge on Synlait's territory, new supply, new plant, uses a little of their cash, and aligned with their partner in China. A2 will have the power to ensure MVM are competitive with what others are paying - which may have been some of MVM's problems??

Expect that many of the farmers will be heavily A2 anyway, and with settlement date a while off, gives them some time to work towards full A2 compliance.

[keenkiwiflyer]

Yet another reason to feel assured that ATM is the long term play. Happy days!

[jimdog31]

I hope citi changes their rating for the 3rd time in 3 days.

[Leftfield]

Yet another reason to feel assured that ATM is the long term play. Happy days!

Many will have missed it, but in the interview with Peter Nathan posted by sb9, Peter confirmed that A2 has also recently purchased an Australian fresh milk processor.

Things are rapidly falling into place for some more rapid growth. (Makes a bit of a farce of some analysts concerns about supposed high stock levels in the last report IMO.)

Here's sb9's link. (https://www.abc.net.au/news/programs/the-business/2020-08-19/extended-interview-with-peter-nathan/12575860?nw=0)

[couta1]

I hope citi changes their rating for the 3rd time in 3 days. Citi are manipulative clowns, why people take notice of them is beyond me.

[jimdog31]

Citi are manipulative clowns, why people take notice of them is beyond me.

luckily i took no notice and rebought :)

[sb9]

Many will have missed it, but in the interview with Peter Nathan posted by sb9, Peter confirmed that A2 has also recently purchased an Australian fresh milk processor.

Things are rapidly falling into place for some more rapid growth. (Makes a bit of a farce of some analysts concerns about supposed high stock levels in the last report IMO.)

Here's sb9's link. (https://www.abc.net.au/news/programs/the-business/2020-08-19/extended-interview-with-peter-nathan/12575860?nw=0)

Absolutely, Kyvalley purchase in Victoria and moving away from sole reliance on Synlait for IF are all part their business derisk strategy. Imagine if we could have services of Geoff for another 5 years, where will he take this company. I'm sure the new incoming CEO David would be great too.

[tomm]

A2M was struggling to meet demand. This is the next phase of growth :).


21 August 2020NZX/ASX Market Release
The a2 Milk Company enters into exclusive due diligence on Mataura Valley MilkThe a2 Milk Company (a2MC) is pleased to confirm that it is engaged in discussions with Mataura ValleyMilk (MVM), a New Zealand dairy nutrition business, to explore options for a2MC to participate inmanufacturing at MVM’s facility in Southland, New Zealand.As a result of these discussions, a2MC advises that it made a non-binding indicative offer to acquire a75.1% interest in MVM, for a total consideration of approximately NZ$270 million, based on anenterprise value of circa NZ$385 million. MVM has now agreed to provide a2MC a period of exclusivityto conduct confirmatory due diligence and negotiate definitive transaction documentation.

[tomm]

A2 Milk in a 'Very Strong Position.


https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2020-08-19/a2-milk-in-a-very-strong-position-ceo-says-video (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2020-08-19/a2-milk-in-a-very-strong-position-ceo-says-video)

[Hello123]

A2 Milk in a 'Very Strong Position.


https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2020-08-19/a2-milk-in-a-very-strong-position-ceo-says-video (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2020-08-19/a2-milk-in-a-very-strong-position-ceo-says-video)

Interesting to see what the ASX think about this announcement!

[iceman]

A great move for ATM and great for Southland. Clearly they are likely to grow the production even further down there with lots of electricity and labour available post Tiwai closure

[sb9]

A great move for ATM and great for Southland. Clearly they are likely to grow the production even further down there with lots of electricity and labour available post Tiwai closure

Exactly, when I found out where they're located geographically, couldn't be more happier for people in Southland post Tiwai shutdown.

[Leftfield]

A great move for ATM and great for Southland. Clearly they are likely to grow the production even further down there with lots of electricity and labour available post Tiwai closure


Exactly, when I found out where they're located geographically, couldn't be more happier for people in Southland post Tiwai shutdown.

I may well be wrong, but I understand that Mataura is currently coal fired/powered (a plentiful cheap resource down that way) however, the Tiwai closure provides and excellent opportunity for them to go clean, green, renewable electricity. I've no idea of the economics, but I like that potential.

[iceman]

I may well be wrong, but I understand that Mataura is currently coal fired/powered (a plentiful cheap resource down that way) however, the Tiwai closure provides and excellent opportunity for them to go clean, green, renewable electricity. I've no idea of the economics, but I like that potential.

I understand there are several coal powered dairy factories in the bottom half of the SI. I am sure ATM will lead the drive towards clean renewable energy and I like that a lot.

[tomm]

I may well be wrong, but I understand that Mataura is currently coal fired/powered (a plentiful cheap resource down that way) however, the Tiwai closure provides and excellent opportunity for them to go clean, green, renewable electricity. I've no idea of the economics, but I like that potential.
A2M was experiment with shortage of supply toward demand. This is the best time to buy and best option of all. They got 92% increased in the US alone and going forward, this is the magic of best CEO and BOARD.

[freddagg]

I cannot see it being of much benefit to Southland without more milk supply and the public in their wisdom have decided farmers are not allowed to do that.

Re electricity vs coal, I saw something from Fonterra that said electricity would be several times the cost of coal

[tomm]

Watch this space $19.50/share is going to be history.

[BlackPeter]

Watch this space $19.50/share is going to be history.

Wise prediction, and no matter what happens you always will be right :p;

[Davexl]

I cannot see it being of much benefit to Southland without more milk supply and the public in their wisdom have decided farmers are not allowed to do that.

Re electricity vs coal, I saw something from Fonterra that said electricity would be several times the cost of coal

Fonterra has clearly indicated that their strategy going forward is to use biomass / woodchips to power their dryers etc in the South Island

eg https://www.stuff.co.nz/environment/climate-news/122375542/fonterras-first-wood-pelletfuelled-plant-will-fire-up-in-september

https://businessdesk.co.nz/article/fonterra-favours-wood-over-electricity-for-emission-reduction (Paywalled)

[Ggcc]

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/new-zealand/2020/08/pioneering-child-health-researcher-sir-bob-elliott-dies.html

Sorry if posted earlier, but
What a man!!!

[Leftfield]

A different take on the 2018 marketing/partnership agreement between Fonterra and ATM by Keith Woodford shows just how smart ATM is/was. See full blog here. (https://keithwoodford.wordpress.com)

"Fonterra fought the concept of A2 milk from the outset nearly 20 years ago. Fonterra saw A2 as a risk rather than an opportunity. Then, in a remarkable turnaround, Fonterra announced in February 2018 that they were forming a partnership with The a2 Milk Company (A2M) primarily to supply ingredients. At the time, it seemed an exciting move. But alas, Fonterra messed-up badly with that agreement. It effectively meant that Fonterra could not sell A2 ingredients to anyone apart from A2M unless A2M agreed. And as I found out when asked to assist an overseas company in obtaining such products, A2M was never going to agree to that.

So, what that agreement achieved was to effectively take A2M’s potentially biggest competitor out of the market. Most of the big international dairy companies are now putting together A2 dairy offerings but none can purchase those A2 ingredients from Fonterra. Fonterra could still be the global leader in A2 ingredients, sold through long-term supply contracts. But it cannot happen until the current agreement between Fonterra and A2M runs its course.

Ironically, the biggest New Zealand value-add dairy company is The a2 Milk Company itself (coded A2M on the ASX and ATM on the NZX). Although the Head Office is in Auckland, all of the key executives are in Australia, China and the USA, with the Chair based in the UK. Most of the shares are also held by investors outside New Zealand. (For those wanting further information on this company and its journey, I have been writing about it for more than 15 years, with many of those articles at my own site here .)A2M continues its journey of exponential growth, with a further increase of over 30 percent in annual profit recently announced. The company is now valued at around $NZ15 billion, well over twice that of Fonterra."

Impressive and v cunning!

[Leftfield]

Good to see the SP settling down above $NZ20.00 after the recent results and announcement re Mataura Valley.

Macquarrie have now upgraded their analysis of ATM to 'outperform' targeting a SP of $A21.25 ($NZ 23)

...and this from an article in the AFN.

"Analysts are tipping a2 milk’s potential acquisition of a majority stake in NZ based Mataura Valley milk as a move that could allow the dairy giant to better manage an increasingly complicated relationship with China while growing margins.

Macquarie also touched on geopolitical tensions as a risk factor, but were confident that the infant formula market would remain excluded from tit-for-tat trade wars as China is not yet self-sufficient in its production....... (saying) " infant formula has been more immune to challenges given the essential nature and sensitive consumer base (compared to luxury goods as an example),” they wrote in a note.“We hence think this, and lack of China self-sufficiency for infant formula is somewhat prohibitive of large infant formula producers and brands being tied up in political tensions.”....

....Macquarie analysts said that the purchase and creation of a new facility will reach break-even point “relatively quickly,” with the facility to produce a return on capital employed in excess of 20 per cent."

All this pretty obvious IMHO, but nice to have it confirmed by pointy heads.

[couta1]

Good to see the SP settling down above $NZ20.00 after the recent results and announcement re Mataura Valley.

Macquarrie have now upgraded their analysis of ATM to 'outperform' targeting a SP of $A21.25 ($NZ 23)

...and this from an article in the AFN. All this pretty obvious IMHO, but nice to have it confirmed by pointy heads.

"Analysts are tipping a2 milk’s potential acquisition of a majority stake in NZ based Mataura Valley milk as a move that could allow the dairy giant to better manage an increasingly complicated relationship with China while growing margins.

Macquarie also touched on geopolitical tensions as a risk factor, but were confident that the infant formula market would remain excluded from tit-for-tat trade wars as China is not yet self-sufficient in its production....... (saying) " infant formula has been more immune to challenges given the essential nature and sensitive consumer base (compared to luxury goods as an example),” they wrote in a note.“We hence think this, and lack of China self-sufficiency for infant formula is somewhat prohibitive of large infant formula producers and brands being tied up in political tensions.”....

....Macquarie analysts said that the purchase and creation of a new facility will reach break-even point “relatively quickly,” with the facility to produce a return on capital employed in excess of 20 per cent."

All this pretty obvious IMHO, but nice to have it confirmed by pointy heads.


Yep and a good safe place to park your money in contrast to the FOMO yield hunters, many of whom are yet to learn their first hard market lesson.

[kiwidollabill]

A few c from me... I have personally walked around the MVM plant and spoken to senior stuff (other business matters, not to disc)

Other than the coal fired boiler it is one of the most advanced facilities of its kind, runs on a skeleton crew and highly automated. It currently is set up to manufacture IF base powder + commodities, it is potentially likely in the short term may supply Synlait for wet blend and canning.

The farmer suppliers are passionate and operate with one of the most stringent farm assurance program in the sector, they have a line out the door of farmers who want to supply and have been very choosey so far.

The purchase arrangement is curious to me....

"The transaction, which is subject to a period of exclusive due diligence, would involve A2 Milk acquiring 75.1% of Mataura Valley Milk for approximately $270m, with the bulk of the money used to pay down Mataura Valley’s debt.

As of December 2019, Mataura Valley had debt of $240m and was in breach of its banking covenants.

Babidge said under the proposed transaction, only about 10–15% of the debt would remain on Mataura Valley’s balance sheet"

With most of it to pay down debt (I believe its via shareholder loan to the Chinese parent + banks) that's not alot of equity currently existing with the business, my read is existing MVM shareholders are talking a bath on the investment, esp considering my comments on the plant above.

The real benefit for a2 is locking up what would be a large A2 source coming to the market (c.f. points made by Keith W on the Fonterra deal), my understanding was that the suppliers were already a long way in transitioning the herds to exclusive A2 milk

[Leftfield]

Thanks for your thoughts kiwi$.

Just noticed this news out of Aussie, which is good news for ATM.

$600m deal for China's Mengniu to buy Lion Dairy called off amid trade tensionsSee it here. (https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-08-25/lion-dairy-china-mengniu-deal-off/12592534)

[dreamcatcher]

Thanks for your thoughts kiwi$.

Just noticed this news out of Aussie, which is good news for ATM.

$600m deal for China's Mengniu to buy Lion Dairy called off amid trade tensions

See it here. (https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-08-25/lion-dairy-china-mengniu-deal-off/12592534)

Nice to see the aussies saying "not for sale"

[Gerald]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_2MfX7LPXVU

Obviously he is a dodgy economist, but he raises the valid point that as we go into negitive interest rates, and countries like AU/US refuse to, it would result in a significant devaluation of the NZD (he claims to about .5 USD).

Significant tailwind for A2?

[kiwidollabill]

Thanks for your thoughts kiwi$.

Just noticed this news out of Aussie, which is good news for ATM.

$600m deal for China's Mengniu to buy Lion Dairy called off amid trade tensions



See it here. (https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-08-25/lion-dairy-china-mengniu-deal-off/12592534)

I'm not surprised... about time the ozzy learn from getting their fingers burnt in some of these overseas investment deals

[tomm]

It is obvious that A2M doesn't give out dividend and the insto's put too much money to invest in it, the only way they can make money is as we use to see on this stock.

1)The Sp price will be pushed up as high as it suppose to be before the announcement.
2) Pushing the Sp down and shaking the tree to collect as much as they can for the next phase right after the announcement.

Its a game for LTH.

[jimdog31]

11889

Aussies shorting increasing

[couta1]

11889

Aussies shorting increasing Its going to be another lovely Nov bonfire, they never learn with this stock, some will do okay if they exit in time but many will be turned to ashes.

[jimdog31]

Its going to be another lovely Nov bonfire, they never learn with this stock, some will do okay if they exit in time but many will be turned to ashes.

Just in time for guy fawkes:eek2:

[jimdog31]

Another useful graph showing monthly showing which months the share prices go down.

https://www.shortman.com.au/seasonality?q=A2M

[Ted2]

Good to see the SP settling down above $NZ20.00 after the recent results and announcement re Mataura Valley.

Macquarrie have now upgraded their analysis of ATM to 'outperform' targeting a SP of $A21.25 ($NZ 23)

...and this from an article in the AFN.

"Analysts are tipping a2 milk’s potential acquisition of a majority stake in NZ based Mataura Valley milk as a move that could allow the dairy giant to better manage an increasingly complicated relationship with China while growing margins.

Macquarie also touched on geopolitical tensions as a risk factor, but were confident that the infant formula market would remain excluded from tit-for-tat trade wars as China is not yet self-sufficient in its production....... (saying) " infant formula has been more immune to challenges given the essential nature and sensitive consumer base (compared to luxury goods as an example),” they wrote in a note.“We hence think this, and lack of China self-sufficiency for infant formula is somewhat prohibitive of large infant formula producers and brands being tied up in political tensions.”....

....Macquarie analysts said that the purchase and creation of a new facility will reach break-even point “relatively quickly,” with the facility to produce a return on capital employed in excess of 20 per cent."

All this pretty obvious IMHO, but nice to have it confirmed by pointy heads.




Nothing but positives to be taken from this move. Far better use of 270M than leaving it in the bank at 1%. Indicates ever-increasing demand as they need another manufacturing plant to keep up.

Maybe with such demand we'll see an A2 owned and branded ship running between NZ and China - or even better - a Fleet of them!! :t_up: :t_up: :t_up:

[sb9]

Mouth watering pay day for Senior execs and Chair. Big windfalls for Peter and Susan, wow!

[Ggcc]

Mouth watering pay day for Senior execs and Chair. Big windfalls for Peter and Susan, wow!
I think the market disapproves. I am happy for them. Who knows what they need the money for, but they have deserved it.

[jimdog31]

I think the market disapproves. I am happy for them. Who knows what they need the money for, but they have deserved it.

Geoff is still leaving a good proportion in. I wish Peter had taken a smaller proportion out , especially with new CEO incoming.

[davflaws]

I think the market disapproves. I am happy for them. Who knows what they need the money for, but they have deserved it.

Probably a new deck. They have been envious of David Darling's deck for many years.

[tomm]

The fact is I am upset because I missed the opportunity to top up when this news came out due to NZX is crashed yesterday.

[Muppett]

The fact is I am upset because I missed the opportunity to top up when this news came out due to NZX is crashed yesterday.

The stock is getting hammered, why would you want to top up yesterday?

[couta1]

The stock is getting hammered, why would you want to top up yesterday? I'm actually finding the current situation quite refreshing whilst being on holiday, apart from the fact that the stock is getting wasted and my current avg price is well north of $20 so I wouldnt be doing any trading anyway, it's nice to pause and take a break and not feel rattled at all by the price drop. Re your top up comment, the price is so ridiculously cheap based on its latest result and growth potential it doesnt really matter when one tops up.

[tomm]

I'm actually finding the current situation quite refreshing whilst being on holiday, apart from the fact that the stock is getting wasted and my current avg price is well north of $20 so I wouldnt be doing any trading anyway, it's nice to pause and take a break and not feel rattled at all by the price drop. Re your top up comment, the price is so ridiculously cheap based on its latest result and growth potential it doesnt really matter when one tops up.
Thanks Couta1 for clarify that.

[Hello123]

Wow 19.21 open!

[Ggcc]

It is still getting a hammering today. Feel sorry for those that can't sell their shares if they needed the money. Not only in A2 but with all other shares

[jallison]

The fact is I am upset because I missed the opportunity to top up when this news came out due to NZX is crashed yesterday.
More complete drivel from this poster

[Beagle]

Broken down through the 100 day moving average today. Some caution warranted I feel. Listening to Geoff the other day I got the sense that the pantry stocking that went on has rolled off a bit and Q1 FY21 is not going to be that crash hot.

As always, a balanced and very well diversified portfolio of quality companies gives the optimum risk and reward portfolio structure.

[couta1]

Broken down through the 100 day moving average today. Some caution warranted I feel. Listening to Geoff the other day I got the sense that the pantry stocking that went on has rolled off a bit and Q1 FY21 is not going to be that crash hot.

As always, a balanced and very well diversified portfolio of quality companies gives the optimum risk and reward portfolio structure. The only moving average I am currently following is my skiing speed and as for being very well diversified, well I wont be taking that advice any time soon, its go big or go home and I ain't ready to go home.

[winner69]

The only moving average I am currently following is my skiing speed and as for being very well diversified, well I wont be taking that advice any time soon, its go big or go home and I ain't ready to go home.

A2 always goes down when you on slopes and when you get home rises to new highs

Keep enjoying those downhill bits ....some go over 150 km hour I’m told

[couta1]

A2 always goes down when you on slopes and when you get home rises to new highs

Keep enjoying those downhill bits ....some go over 150 km hour I’m told Haha yeah seems that way, 80 kph tops me out on uneven terrain with a lot of people around.

[Beagle]

The only moving average I am currently following is my skiing speed and as for being very well diversified, well I wont be taking that advice any time soon, its go big or go home and I ain't ready to go home.

Wasn't directed at you mate...I know you're completely incorrigible when it comes to taking a pragmatic approach to risk management.

[winner69]

Broken down through the 100 day moving average today.

Just noise

Still well above the 200MA

That's the important MA for long term 'investors'

[tomm]

Just noise

Still well above the 200MA

That's the important MA for long term 'investors'
I am thinking of a spring.. the purpose is to pressing it for bouncing back, the more it is pressed down the more force it will give to bounce. E=MCsquare. lol

[tomm]

I'm actually finding the current situation quite refreshing whilst being on holiday, apart from the fact that the stock is getting wasted and my current avg price is well north of $20 so I wouldnt be doing any trading anyway, it's nice to pause and take a break and not feel rattled at all by the price drop. Re your top up comment, the price is so ridiculously cheap based on its latest result and growth potential it doesnt really matter when one tops up.
Take a month or so off and when you come back it will be 10%up and the GAP will be at usual at -33-40% , the SP will be : $21.50 on a normal day.

[Cyclical]

Wasn't directed at you mate...I know you're completely incorrigible when it comes to taking a pragmatic approach to risk management.

LOL, yes, that comment completely dispels any notion you were taking a dig at couta, who I thought was buried deep in HLG, or was it snow...I can't recall, it's Friday, need beer.

Anyway, I'm on the board now with some ATM...happy to get in below $20, hopefully not too late to the party. Could be some averaging down coming in the weeks ahead, we'll see.

[couta1]

LOL, yes, that comment completely dispels any notion you were taking a dig at couta, who I thought was buried deep in HLG, or was it snow...I can't recall, it's Friday, need beer.

Anyway, I'm on the board now with some ATM...happy to get in below $20, hopefully not too late to the party. Could be some averaging down coming in the weeks ahead, we'll see. Day off the snow today so took the motel owners dog for a walk and have been drinking a lot of Caterbury Cream with A2 milk and eating large amounts of potato chips. PS-The party has only just started, A2 is the future of milk.

[mfd]

Day off the snow today so took the motel owners dog for a walk and have been drinking a lot of Caterbury Cream with A2 milk and eating large amounts of potato chips. PS-The party has only just started, A2 is the future of milk.

You're not wrong. I've been reading the Devil in the Milk, Keith Woodford's book about A1 and A2 milk. I'm certainly steering clear of regular milk and wouldn't consider giving it to my children, and the evidence is only getting stronger. It's nice to have an investment that can make you money as well as saving lives.

[JeremyALD]

Another little top up for me today.

This is looking like good value at these levels. Big fan and happy to hold.

[tomm]

This will tell you everything
11897

[tomm]

Confident to top up .

[longy]

I am seeing a gap of about 3.5% wide. What are you seeing Tom?

[winner69]

I am seeing a gap of about 3.5% wide. What are you seeing Tom?

Not really a gap is it ......probably wouldn’t be there if the NZX hadn’t stopped trading Thursday afternoon and Friday morning when price fell in OZ

Anyway aren’t gaps sometimes good

[bull....]

big jump in NZD overnight , not good for a2

[Greekwatchdog]

I am sure they have the dollar hedged like most exporters.

[couta1]

big jump in NZD overnight , not good for a2 Must be Troll O'clock.