ATM - A2 Milk Corporation Limited

[dobby41]

What if the wife to have a long term holding account and the husband do the tradings on his account? So essentially two separate entities.... I am wondering if her shares are tainted too and would IRD to deem her as trader as well?

You need tax advice.
In property (and I don't see why shares would be different) husband and wife would taint each other.

[dreamcatcher]

Have been doing something similar to that in the last few years. been getting tax refunds every year. This year getting back about 6k.

Suspect your 6k return is the amount of WT paid on dividends

[Cyclical]

LOL a large research paper produced a few yrs ago by Auckkand Uni showed just how grey the current system really is, there were pure investors getting pinged as traders when selling and traders who were denied losses and deemed investors.
It sounds to me like the moral of the story is if you do your best to pay minimal tax on shares, make sure you have your calculations and thinking well documented. I'm still pretty bitter over paying the top rate on my Kiwisaver since inception while others wrongly checked the 10% box (knowingly or otherwise - surely it's a lot more black and white vs tax on shares) and have gotten away with it for years, only to see the wet government of the day do nothing about it...well if that doesn't send a message...

[see weed]

Suspect your 6k return is the amount of WT paid on dividends
I leave that to my accountant. He got me a 17k refund couple years ago.

[see weed]

The answer is right under your nose see weed, you know those A2 shares of yours which are too far in profit to sell.:cool:
The profit on my remaining a2 was 500k plus, but is now only about 470k. I will sell bits and pieces here and there over the next few years to spread out the tax burden. But will also buy a lot more to sell at the right time.

[see weed]

seems like a lot of trouble to make a loss + all the brokerage you must pay. wouldnt just buying stocks for the dividend and holding produce the same result? of no tax to pay and your save all the brokerage. + you need a significant amount more in $ to purchase enough stock to make it up in dividends to offset your trading gains.
I get discount brokerage from ASB. Brokerage fees to me are good, it goes toward my losses. Your way, you can have your money sitting there collecting div every 6 months which is good. My way, instead of leaving it sitting there, will put it into another com. for a while and collect that div. eg get a $5,000 div every 6 months, or get two $5,000 divs. every 6 months and so on. You can buy into 10 different companies over that 6 months period and receive 10 times your $5000 div. all good which ever way you go. PS Meetup Auckland is having another share trading meeting next Thursday at 5pm if you are interested. Might be able to share more info on anything.

[winner69]

Off course they know as each identity has its own IRD number and both files returns through same accountant.

(Shares are never intermixed).

Get it now — 2 discreet legal identities

[Gerald]

Just reading from Synlait " allowed us to extend our supply agreement with The a2 Milk Company to July 2025 (at the earliest), providing increased term and volume, over the products for which Synlait have exclusive supply rights for Australia, New Zealand and China"

So obviously Mataura Valley Milk either isn't in competition with them (by supplying other markets - unlikely), or they had some sort of an exemption for majority A2 owned suppliers? Seems like a bit of a contradiction.

[Heimand]

I get discount brokerage from ASB.

Hi See Weed, how do you get ASB discount brokerage fee? Do I have to apply for it?

[longy]

Hi See Weed, how do you get ASB discount brokerage fee? Do I have to apply for it?

Discount applies to premium clients I think... So when you trade with them over X amount of dollar.

[bull....]

Discount applies to premium clients I think... So when you trade with them over X amount of dollar.

thats right and i believe they rank you on spend so the more you spend the better the xmas present is ..

[couta1]

thats right and i believe they rank you on spend so the more you spend the better the xmas present is .. No retail punter can get better than the wholesale rate buying or selling NZ equities no matter how much you spend ,and I mean no matter how much.

[jimdog31]

https://www.a2nutrition.cn/find

23,968 Stores! thats a further increase of 168 stores in the last week!

To my knowledge the sales through this channel are generally at a higher margin %

[jimdog31]

https://www.asx.com.au/data/shortsell.txt

and the daily shorts keep increasing.....

This will bounce back

[couta1]

https://www.asx.com.au/data/shortsell.txt

and the daily shorts keep increasing.....

This will bounce back It sure will, has been 30% down from its highs on several occasions over the years so nothing at all unusual about the current drop.

[see weed]

Hi See Weed, how do you get ASB discount brokerage fee? Do I have to apply for it?
It is only a small discount, but it all helps. I pay a min. of $30 brok. and .2% instead of .3% above $30 eg $20,000 trade @.3%= $60 and @ .2%= $40. If you do a bigger trade of maybe $150,000 or more, I am not sure it might be $250,000 trade they give you an automatic discount. All you do is phone up and ask. Come to sharetrader meeting and talk about it.

[Heimand]

I get discount brokerage from ASB. Brokerage fees to me are good, it goes toward my losses. Your way, you can have your money sitting there collecting div every 6 months which is good. My way, instead of leaving it sitting there, will put it into another com. for a while and collect that div. eg get a $5,000 div every 6 months, or get two $5,000 divs. every 6 months and so on. You can buy into 10 different companies over that 6 months period and receive 10 times your $5000 div. all good which ever way you go. PS Meetup Auckland is having another share trading meeting next Thursday at 5pm if you are interested. Might be able to share more info on anything.


It is only a small discount, but it all helps. I pay a min. of $30 brok. and .2% instead of .3% above $30 eg $20,000 trade @.3%= $60 and @ .2%= $40. If you do a bigger trade of maybe $150,000 or more, I am not sure it might be $250,000 trade they give you an automatic discount. All you do is phone up and ask. Come to sharetrader meeting and talk about it.

Thanks for explaining.

[Davexl]

It is only a small discount, but it all helps. I pay a min. of $30 brok. and .2% instead of .3% above $30 eg $20,000 trade @.3%= $60 and @ .2%= $40. If you do a bigger trade of maybe $150,000 or more, I am not sure it might be $250,000 trade they give you an automatic discount. All you do is phone up and ask. Come to sharetrader meeting and talk about it.

Hi see weed, think I'm getting .3 above $100K, not sure I've ever had .2 unless above $200K. Looking forward to finally meeting you at sharetrader meeting. Cheers...

[Dotbond]

Might not be comparing apples with apples but Direct Broking is .2

[Beagle]

https://www.interest.co.nz/rural-news/107170/chinese-dairy-category-has-been-one-strongest-performers-covid-19-foreign-dairy?utm_source=ST&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=ShareTrader+AM+Update+for+Wednesday+2 3+September+2020

China Skinny has been tracking the dairy market for many years, via its Dairy Tracker. And in spite of foreign brands' natural advantages, their analysis points to performance of foreign dairy brands getting worse in most areas, indicated by the data below.


Excerpt
Using Tmall data,

Foreign brands’ share on Tmall was 35% in December 2019 (pre-outbreak), but over the first eight months of 2020 has averaged just 23%
In 2016, foreign brands accounted for 52% of sales on Tmall, more than double the 23% in 2020
In 2020, the average price per litre for domestic brands on Tmall is surprisingly 7% higher than foreign brands. This is an improvement from 2016, when domestic brands sold at a 38% premium.
In fact, domestic brands command a premium over foreign milk brands and they have done that by focusing on smaller formats and more targeted segmenting – which typically commands a premium.

“Many foreign brands point to rising nationalism as the reason for declining brand share...

Just be aware, that's all, I'm not trying to talk it down and have no position either long or short but I am sure those with big positions one way or the other will have strong views on this lol

[BlackPeter]

https://www.interest.co.nz/rural-news/107170/chinese-dairy-category-has-been-one-strongest-performers-covid-19-foreign-dairy?utm_source=ST&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=ShareTrader+AM+Update+for+Wednesday+2 3+September+2020

China Skinny has been tracking the dairy market for many years, via its Dairy Tracker. And in spite of foreign brands' natural advantages, their analysis points to performance of foreign dairy brands getting worse in most areas, indicated by the data below.



Just be aware, that's all, I'm not trying to talk it down and have no position either long or short but I am sure those with big positions one way or the other will have strong views on this lol

Good point. The logical answer to "America First", "New Zealand First", "Britain First" and "<myland> First" clearly must be "China First". Something all of our exporters and all of our populists need to keep in mind.

[couta1]

https://www.interest.co.nz/rural-news/107170/chinese-dairy-category-has-been-one-strongest-performers-covid-19-foreign-dairy?utm_source=ST&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=ShareTrader+AM+Update+for+Wednesday+2 3+September+2020

China Skinny has been tracking the dairy market for many years, via its Dairy Tracker. And in spite of foreign brands' natural advantages, their analysis points to performance of foreign dairy brands getting worse in most areas, indicated by the data below.



Just be aware, that's all, I'm not trying to talk it down and have no position either long or short but I am sure those with big positions one way or the other will have strong views on this lol I'm too satisfied with a very full tummy of yummy A2 to take any fish bait today.

[RTM]

Ooooopppps....wrong thread !

[Snow Leopard]

I think COVID will help them....if one had a choice...from a health perspective...would one prefer to jump on a bus or train...or drives one's own car.
This will affect many of the people that buy cars in Turners range. I think anyway.

...and they all drink A2 milk !

[Leftfield]

I can recall certain posters were concerned at ATM's year end inventory levels.

This chart shows 5000 good reasons why ATM chose to build its stock levels..... ATM is ramping up the ATM presence in Chinese Mother and Baby stores with over 5,000 stores added since June.


11956

Meantime anecdotal word is that ATM is leading Chinese ecommerce sales with increases 30 to 40% up.

As always DYOR.

[dreamcatcher]

I can recall certain posters were concerned at ATM's year end inventory levels.

This chart shows 5000 good reasons why ATM chose to build its stock levels..... ATM is ramping up the ATM presence in Chinese Mother and Baby stores with over 5,000 stores added since June.


11956

Meantime anecdotal word is that ATM is leading Chinese ecommerce sales with increases 30 to 40% up.

As always DYOR.

WoW amazing stuff this a2 ............

[black knat]

Meantime anecdotal word is that ATM is leading Chinese ecommerce sales with increases 30 to 40% up.

Thanks LF ... are you able to provide a source?

[Leftfield]

Thanks LF ... are you able to provide a source?

BK, 'anecdotal' means 'not necessarily true or reliable because it is based on personal accounts not published facts' ...... hence my DYOR.

That said, the person is known to me and is a long term holder in ATM. Like me he is overweight in ATM and watches his shares like a hawk. I regard his comments as credible. However, I'm always cautious until I see published results. We also need a more info on USA and Canada progress.

As always DYOR.

ps.... nice to see the SP back over $18 today...... onwards and upwards.

[LEMON]

Nice to see ATM make a rise again. Wonder if it will continue or get shorted again.

[Leftfield]

Nice to see ATM make a rise again. Wonder if it will continue or get shorted again.

TA looking good (heading back above 200 day MA) and this graph of 10 years av SP change says the odds are good for it to climb above $20 again. Only a matter of time till it is $25. Well done those who took advantage of the recent lows.

11965

That said, election results in USA and NZ may cause a bit more short term uncertainty. GLH and DYOR cos I'm a tab biased!

[Getty]

Motley Fool have put a BUY recommendation on ATM.
Yes, I can hear the skeptics rising on the validity of their advice, but it is what it is, and the SP is rising.

[Ggcc]

Motley Fool have put a BUY recommendation on ATM.
Yes, I can hear the skeptics rising on the validity of their advice, but it is what it is, and the SP is rising.
I have not bought or sold any of these, but hold with the belief it will outperform most shares on the nzx in 12 months time.

[tomm]

When the world realized all the Hype from the tech sector is crashing down ,the disappointments may turn the investors around to put their money into actual profit stocks to buy and you can't imagine what will happen then.

[Leftfield]

Motley Fool have put a BUY recommendation on ATM.
Yes, I can hear the skeptics rising on the validity of their advice, but it is what it is, and the SP is rising.

It's not just MF.....

Goldman Sachs is forecasting earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) of NZ$662 million in FY 2021. This will be a 19.9% increase on FY 2020’s EBITDA of NZ$552 million.

On the bottom line, it has penciled in earnings per share of NZ$0.63, up 20% from NZ$0.524 a year earlier.
In light of this growth and the recent pullback in the a2 Milk share price, Goldman thinks the company is trading at a very attractive level.
It explained: “ATM is (currently) trading at an FY21 P/E of 17.9X, a 6% premium to the market compared to its five-year average of a 50% premium.”

On top of that GS projected 20% revenue increase for FY21 is conservative IMHO. I estimate a 25% increase.

As Cgcc points out, it is all about the longer term and ATM outperforming the NZX50 average.

ATM's record in this respect for the last 5 yrs is impeccable. (NZX 50 up about 100%, while ATM up 2400%....NZX is the black line at the foot of this graph.)

11969

[Getty]

ATM stands for Above The Market.

[Leftfield]

ATM takes USA diary producer on over A2 copyright dispute. See link here. (https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/media-updates.4489996/page-5704?post_id=47644768)

"A2 Milk, which has a market capitalisation of more than $12.4bn, has lodged a counterclaim against Braum’s, which husband and wife team Bill and Mary Braum founded in 1968 and grew to 280 restaurants and “old-fashioned” ice cream parlours across Oklahoma, Kansas, Texas, Missouri and Arkansas......

".......A2 Milk ... says the trademark infringement extended beyond slapping A2 Milk labels on bottles, to ripping off its slogan “feel the difference” versus Braum’s “the A2 difference”, to even poaching its graphics to explain A1 and A2 beta-casein proteins."

Not a great look..... Foreign Multi-national taking on local USA Ma & Pa Business. However, ATM's case is strong. Let's hope it settles out of court in some form of win-win strategic alliance.

[silu]

MKTUPDTE: ATM: Updated FY21 Outlook

The a2 Milk Company today provides an update to its FY21 outlook statement
which accompanied its FY20 results presentation.

In that statement, we noted that for FY21 there continues to be uncertainty
resulting from COVID-19 and the potential for moderation of economic activity
and that this could have various impacts, including on participants within
the supply chain.

We have also previously advised of a number of issues being experienced
relating to our infant nutrition business as a result of COVID-19. This
included the flow-on effect of pantry destocking continuing into FY21
following the strong sales uplift in 3Q20 and lower than anticipated sales to
retail daigous in Australia, due to reduced tourism from China and
international student numbers.

In September we have started to observe emerging additional disruption to the
corporate daigou / reseller channel, particularly due to the Stage 4 lockdown
in Victoria.

As a result of all these issues, we are now witnessing a contraction in the
daigou channel beyond our previous expectations and without the replenishment
orders that would typically be anticipated at this point.

This disruption in the daigou channel is impacting our September sales and it
is currently anticipated that this will continue for the remainder of the
first half of FY21. Sales in the daigou channel represent a significant
proportion of infant formula sales in our Australia & New Zealand (ANZ)
business and, as such, we now expect ANZ revenue to be materially below plan
for the first half.

However, based on the continuing strong growth in our underlying China IMF
brand health metrics and the performance of the rest of our business, we
believe this to be a single channel logistics issue, as we are continuing to
see strong underlying consumer demand for our brand in China. We are of the
view that this short-term impact to the daigou channel will prove to be
temporary, assuming stabilisation of COVID-19 related issues in Australia.

Performance in all other areas of our business is strong, including our
liquid milk businesses in Australia and the USA. Importantly, our local China
business is performing strongly, notably in Mother & Baby Stores (MBS), which
we anticipate will continue. We also continue to see a positive impact from
the marketing investment in activation and brand building activities from
4Q20. This strong performance continues to be well supported by the on the
ground capability investments we have made over the past 18-24 months.

The increasingly strong underlying brand health metrics we are achieving in
China IMF, including market share and brand awareness for example, confirm
the effectiveness of our continued significant investment in marketing to
drive future growth.

These factors underpin our confidence of a significant improvement in overall
Group performance in the second half of the year once the disruption in the
daigou channel is reduced.

Notwithstanding the significant uncertainty and volatility in market
conditions as a result of COVID-19 we have determined it appropriate to
provide an update to our outlook to include our view of Group revenue as
follows:
- Group revenue for 1H21 of $725 million to $775 million
- Group revenue for FY21 of $1.80 billion to $1.90 billion
- Group EBITDA margin for FY21 in the order of 31%.

It should be noted that the sale of infant formula through the daigou channel
is only one component of our multi-channel and multi-product sales strategy
into China. Our growth plan assumes MBS and CBEC sales will represent an
increasing proportion of our infant nutrition business over time, driven by
the continuing growth in underlying consumer demand.

Geoffrey Babidge
Chief Executive Officer
The a2 Milk Company Limited
Authorised by the Board of Directors
End CA:00360483 For:ATM Type:MKTUPDTE Time:2020-09-28 08:45:07

[bull....]

MKTUPDTE: ATM: Updated FY21 Outlook

The a2 Milk Company today provides an update to its FY21 outlook statement
which accompanied its FY20 results presentation.

In that statement, we noted that for FY21 there continues to be uncertainty
resulting from COVID-19 and the potential for moderation of economic activity
and that this could have various impacts, including on participants within
the supply chain.

We have also previously advised of a number of issues being experienced
relating to our infant nutrition business as a result of COVID-19. This
included the flow-on effect of pantry destocking continuing into FY21
following the strong sales uplift in 3Q20 and lower than anticipated sales to
retail daigous in Australia, due to reduced tourism from China and
international student numbers.

In September we have started to observe emerging additional disruption to the
corporate daigou / reseller channel, particularly due to the Stage 4 lockdown
in Victoria.

As a result of all these issues, we are now witnessing a contraction in the
daigou channel beyond our previous expectations and without the replenishment
orders that would typically be anticipated at this point.

This disruption in the daigou channel is impacting our September sales and it
is currently anticipated that this will continue for the remainder of the
first half of FY21. Sales in the daigou channel represent a significant
proportion of infant formula sales in our Australia & New Zealand (ANZ)
business and, as such, we now expect ANZ revenue to be materially below plan
for the first half.

However, based on the continuing strong growth in our underlying China IMF
brand health metrics and the performance of the rest of our business, we
believe this to be a single channel logistics issue, as we are continuing to
see strong underlying consumer demand for our brand in China. We are of the
view that this short-term impact to the daigou channel will prove to be
temporary, assuming stabilisation of COVID-19 related issues in Australia.

Performance in all other areas of our business is strong, including our
liquid milk businesses in Australia and the USA. Importantly, our local China
business is performing strongly, notably in Mother & Baby Stores (MBS), which
we anticipate will continue. We also continue to see a positive impact from
the marketing investment in activation and brand building activities from
4Q20. This strong performance continues to be well supported by the on the
ground capability investments we have made over the past 18-24 months.

The increasingly strong underlying brand health metrics we are achieving in
China IMF, including market share and brand awareness for example, confirm
the effectiveness of our continued significant investment in marketing to
drive future growth.

These factors underpin our confidence of a significant improvement in overall
Group performance in the second half of the year once the disruption in the
daigou channel is reduced.

Notwithstanding the significant uncertainty and volatility in market
conditions as a result of COVID-19 we have determined it appropriate to
provide an update to our outlook to include our view of Group revenue as
follows:
- Group revenue for 1H21 of $725 million to $775 million
- Group revenue for FY21 of $1.80 billion to $1.90 billion
- Group EBITDA margin for FY21 in the order of 31%.

It should be noted that the sale of infant formula through the daigou channel
is only one component of our multi-channel and multi-product sales strategy
into China. Our growth plan assumes MBS and CBEC sales will represent an
increasing proportion of our infant nutrition business over time, driven by
the continuing growth in underlying consumer demand.

Geoffrey Babidge
Chief Executive Officer
The a2 Milk Company Limited
Authorised by the Board of Directors
End CA:00360483 For:ATM Type:MKTUPDTE Time:2020-09-28 08:45:07

massive downgrade , my faith in my analysis will be rewarded

[trader_jackson]

So could be $1.80b revenue in FY21? FY20 revenue was $1.73b?... I thought this was a growth company?

[couta1]

massive downgrade , my faith in my analysis will be rewarded Lol nothing to see, note the words strong performance continues to be well supported, do you mean your Trollnalysis?

[winner69]

H1 revenues falling from $807m to $725m -- THAT'S MASSIVE

But H2 going to be UP 25% so no worries

Beagle will be saying 'I told you so, even blind Freddy could see this coming' as share price sinks to $14 today

[couta1]

H1 revenues falling from $807m to $725m -- THAT'S MASSIVE

But H2 going to be UP 25% so no worries

Beagle will be saying 'I told you so, even blind Freddy could see this coming' as share price sinks to $14 today Long term story remains unchanged so no worries indeed.

[winner69]

Long term story remains unchanged so no worries indeed.

Temporary hiccup in one channel in unprecedented times globally

yes indeed .... the story remains the same

Don't forget it's the story that drives long term value - noise is for traders

No worries

[trader_jackson]

NPAT Missed consensus by about 2% I think... and on a quick look, most metrics look to be slightly disappointing...?
No worries - share price will probably still go up... just look at SUM, NPAT down 99% and most metrics deteriorating or their worst in 3 years... share price near all time high!
All about the story (not the results) and the story with ATM has been strong for a good chunk of time now.

Takes me back to my comment made when the share price was $21.50 (just prior to market open and just after the below consensus FY20 announcement)... at the end of the day, it really is all (and only) about the story, so as long as it sounds good, all will be good.

[bull....]

if you love a stock , you cannot see the faults in that stock so is my infatuation for my loved stock

[Ggcc]

if you love a stock , you cannot see the faults in that stock so is my infatuation for my loved stock
You will make money in the short term and I in the longterm. We will both be happy

[Sideshow Bob]

Timing is interesting - just over 5 weeks since FY report. Presumably updated same day as Synlait announced for a reason......

[Leftfield]

Sobering update from ATM (http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/ATM/360483/331673.pdf). Good day for shorters.

FY21 sales likely to be short of the previously signalled 20% increase.....perhaps 10%?

Rocky times ahead for holders.

[JeremyALD]

Sobering update from ATM (http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/ATM/360483/331673.pdf). Good day for shorters.

FY21 sales likely to be short of the previously signalled 20% increase.....perhaps 10%?

Rocky times ahead for holders.

I must admit I didn't see that one coming, but no reason to lose faith. Its going to get smashed today, top up time perhaps?

[Ggcc]

I must admit I didn't see that one coming, but no reason to lose faith. Its going to get smashed today, top up time perhaps?
I don’t mind being a little overweight on this one. If it does drop to $14 I will buy some more

[Muppett]

I must admit I didn't see that one coming, but no reason to lose faith. Its going to get smashed today, top up time perhaps?
The Directors and management knew. That's why they were selling off recently post results.

[bull....]

The Directors and management knew. That's why they were selling off recently post results.

everyone in the know was as it was probably obvious to them the covid demand spike was going to be a temporary thing , and then people were shorting as well 20 million shorts put on since results .... lets get ready for hammer time

[sb9]

Sobering update from ATM (http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/ATM/360483/331673.pdf). Good day for shorters.

FY21 sales likely to be short of the previously signalled 20% increase.....perhaps 10%?

Rocky times ahead for holders.

For sure, a rare downgrade in their unchequered history of under promise and over deliver...

[Muppett]

For sure, a rare downgrade in their unchequered history of under promise and over deliver...
This is not the first time Babbage has done this after he had sold off. His timing is impeccable as always.
He even did it just before "retiring".

[bull....]

the asx open might be savage they tend to maul profit downgrades big time

[850man]

the asx open might be savage they tend to maul profit downgrades big time

Savage might be an understatement - -11% out of the blocks this am! Weak hands?

[winner69]

This is not the first time Babbage has done this after he had sold off. His timing is impeccable as always.
He even did it just before "retiring".

Big mistake putting him back ...should have left him in the retirement paddock

[tomm]

Topping up opportunities. Things are still up. Please sell....The Ausie will scoop it up. No worries :)



Notwithstanding the significant uncertainty and volatility in market


conditions as a result of COVID-19 we have determined it appropriate to


provide an update to our outlook to include our view of Group revenue as


follows:


- Group revenue for 1H21 of $725 million to $775 million


- Group revenue for FY21 of $1.80 billion to $1.90 billion


- Group EBITDA margin for FY21 in the order of 31%.




It should be noted that the sale of infant formula through the daigou channel


is only one component of our multi-channel and multi-product sales strategy


into China. Our growth plan assumes MBS and CBEC sales will represent an


increasing proportion of our infant nutrition business over time, driven by


the continuing growth in underlying consumer demand.

[Beagle]

Sobering update from ATM (http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/ATM/360483/331673.pdf). Good day for shorters.

FY21 sales likely to be short of the previously signalled 20% increase.....perhaps 10%?

Rocky times ahead for holders.

Oh dear...sales for the first half are now forecast to be below last year !!
Sales at the mid point now forecast to grow for the year at just 6.8% and all of that is "hoped for" in the second half.
Some people sniffed out trouble well ahead before it was announced. It would seem their nose for a feed AND for trouble coming is still working well.
From market screener, average analyst revenue forecast was $2.075m and EBITDA margin was 31% so the new forecast at the mid point of $1.850m is 11% below that.

The real question is will the market correct more than 11% to account for the slower growth and ascribe this a lower PE ?
The significant market underperformance since March 2018 when I sold out continues... I have no idea why anyone would hold an outsize position in this company anymore. Growth has been slowing down for years.

Aussies could give this a real belting when they open...but what would I know...

[longy]

Big mistake putting him back ...should have left him in the retirement paddock

That is a bit harsh...

[Arbroath]

Who believes this will be the only downgrade. A2 is a very good company but I reckon that H2 forecast looks pretty aggressive and there will likely be more average news the next 6 months and maybe a pullback to $10-$12. I don't own so might be being hopeful of a nice entry point longer term but companies very very rarely have one downgrade...

[Beagle]

Who believes this will be the only downgrade. A2 is a very good company but I reckon that H2 forecast looks pretty aggressive and there will likely be more average news the next 6 months and maybe a pullback to $10-$12. I don't own so might be being hopeful of a nice entry point longer term but companies very very rarely have one downgrade...

Balance reckons downgrades always come in 3's !
I agree, 2H sales forecast looks "hopeful" to me.

[bull....]

Who believes this will be the only downgrade. A2 is a very good company but I reckon that H2 forecast looks pretty aggressive and there will likely be more average news the next 6 months and maybe a pullback to $10-$12. I don't own so might be being hopeful of a nice entry point longer term but companies very very rarely have one downgrade...

agree totally

[Getty]

It's not just MF.....

Goldman Sachs is forecasting earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) of NZ$662 million in FY 2021. This will be a 19.9% increase on FY 2020’s EBITDA of NZ$552 million.

On the bottom line, it has penciled in earnings per share of NZ$0.63, up 20% from NZ$0.524 a year earlier.
In light of this growth and the recent pullback in the a2 Milk share price, Goldman thinks the company is trading at a very attractive level.
It explained: “ATM is (currently) trading at an FY21 P/E of 17.9X, a 6% premium to the market compared to its five-year average of a 50% premium.”

On top of that GS projected 20% revenue increase for FY21 is conservative IMHO. I estimate a 25% increase.

As Cgcc points out, it is all about the longer term and ATM outperforming the NZX50 average.

ATM's record in this respect for the last 5 yrs is impeccable. (NZX 50 up about 100%, while ATM up 2400%....NZX is the black line at the foot of this graph.)

11969

Look's like we cant rely on Motley Fool or GS.

Where, or who to next?

[JeremyALD]

They still are generating heaps of cash and have a very attractive market position.

It seems fairly priced around these levels, but lets see what aussie brings. Imagine $15nzd is a possibility end of day.

[bull....]

They still are generating heaps of cash and have a very attractive market position.

It seems fairly priced around these levels, but lets see what aussie brings. Imagine $15nzd is a possibility end of day.

be a sustained re- rating now. must also remember the chinese govt is promoting domestic owned companies big time now

[flyinglizard]

Topping up opportunities. Things are still up. Please sell....The Ausie will scoop it up. No worries :)



Notwithstanding the significant uncertainty and volatility in market


conditions as a result of COVID-19 we have determined it appropriate to


provide an update to our outlook to include our view of Group revenue as


follows:


- Group revenue for 1H21 of $725 million to $775 million


- Group revenue for FY21 of $1.80 billion to $1.90 billion


- Group EBITDA margin for FY21 in the order of 31%.




It should be noted that the sale of infant formula through the daigou channel


is only one component of our multi-channel and multi-product sales strategy


into China. Our growth plan assumes MBS and CBEC sales will represent an


increasing proportion of our infant nutrition business over time, driven by


the continuing growth in underlying consumer demand.





I would like to see how they start growth stage 2, (stage 1 clearly completed, establishment of brand name)

- playing with Chinese online giants, Dj.com, Taobao and T-mall

- SEM

- live delivery ( popular way nowadays, an internet celebrity can sell millions $ just within 10-15 mins)

- some supermarket distribution channel

Those channels are far more bigger than Daigou private channel.

[jonu]

Obviously plenty on here hoping for more juicy drops so they can buy in. Beware of their motivations before you listen too closely folks!

[flyinglizard]

After ASX opens, A2 will have its final hit, then it is the best time to sneak into the show.

[bull....]

hammertime big portfolio sells will come out during the week

[winner69]

A couple of big gaps on the chart recent

Down ones as well,..not good

[winner69]

Spose we need to wait a hour longer this week for ASX to open

[jonu]

A couple of big gaps on the chart recent

Down ones as well,..not good

What level is your buy order?

[trader_jackson]

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/122873077/covid19-which-stocks-are-the-coronavirus-winners-and-losers-on-the-nzx

In the weekend just gone it was mentioned that covid-19 had negligible direct impact on A2 Milk... I suppose its is well and truly old news and nothing but wishful hoping... it is pretty obvious there is a substantial impact on A2 Milk from covid 19 after all, and not a positive one.

Maybe when it gets around the $13 mark within the next few weeks (possibly days) I could be tempted.

[ShouldHaveHeld]

Yeah i agree with most in this and decided to sell and wait to come back in.
Will see how the ASX goes (probably massive sell offs)

[Sideshow Bob]

To me, this announcement does smell a bit. Mgmt and directors selling out, and at FY20 results less than 6 weeks ago saying: "overall for FY21, we anticipate continued strong revenue growthsupported by our continued investment in marketing and organisational capability".

Now they blame it all on September sales, and extrapolate that into a revenue forecast lower than the prior H1, but then forecast a strong H2 21, to confirm what they said 6 weeks ago. But they couldn't see what was coming in September back in August??

[jonu]

Look for the rebound heading into the 1pm ASX open. How many of you calling for it to fall further have filled your boots in the last hour?

[hogie]

Damn wish I had extra $ to spend on his "fire sale" ... oh well ...

[Beagle]

Fair enough Gents and a good robust debate. At the end of the day everyone has to find their own pathway that works for them.

I posted today as a way of contributing and asking has the fast growth story run its course ? I think it is a question well worth putting out there because clearly the analysts are projecting out much slower growth rates going forward than what ATM has enjoyed in the past and ATM shareholders are shortly to again lose the wonderful and incredibly valuable expertise of Geoff Babbage. How the new guy will go is clearly a risk, just as it was when Herdlicka came on board.

For what its worth, my story is I have also done very well out of ATM..I rode it up for a few years and sold out most of my holding in March 2018 at just under $13. Before this I trimmed some along the way and I am sure others made a lot more from ATM than I did and good for them.
Since late March 2018 by my calculations ATM has increased in price by 39.5%.
In very late March 2018 the NZX All Gross Index was 9060 and is now 12,820 so is up 41.5% over that same timeframe.

I think ATM's slight underperformance of the NZX all gross index over that timeframe adds some validity to the merit of my question today pondering whether the good times have ended and I guess the question I am posing is really one that asks whether ATM is now a mature company with much more modest growth rates going forward ? Will we get market outperformance going ahead after slightly underperforming the market since March 2018 ? That's the $64,000 question, (so too speak), or for some people, quite considerably more ;)


To me, this announcement does smell a bit. Mgmt and directors selling out, and at FY20 results less than 6 weeks ago saying: "overall for FY21, we anticipate continued strong revenue growthsupported by our continued investment in marketing and organisational capability".

Now they blame it all on September sales, and extrapolate that into a revenue forecast lower than the prior H1, but then forecast a strong H2 21, to confirm what they said 6 weeks ago. But they couldn't see what was coming in September back in August??

From 9th September...one of many posts along similar lines.
I posed the question. The clues were there if you went sniffing for them but I basically got shouted out of this thread as a troll when all I was doing was warning of possible trouble ahead. Of course, as expected, nobody ever thanks you for being right when you are a portender of trouble coming. I was just trying to help but the zealots didn't want a bar of it.

Emotional attachment to a stock because its been very kind to you in the past can be a dangerous thing. No room for "attachment issues" with investing as far as I am concerned.

[jonu]

From earlier in September.
I posed the question. The clues were there if you went sniffing for them but I basically got shouted out of this thread as a troll when all i was doing was warning of possible trouble ahead. Of course, as expected, nobody ever thanks you for being right when you are a portender of trouble coming. I was just trying to help but the zealots didn't want a bar of it.

Have you been trying to help by buying their shares sub $16 this morning Beagle?

[Beagle]

Have you been trying to help by buying their shares sub $16 this morning Beagle?

LOL everyone has to assess value for themselves. For me, I believe this is just the first downgrade...

[jonu]

LOL everyone has to assess value for themselves. For me, I believe this is just the first downgrade...

Yes or no?

[ratkin]

https://www.asx.com.au/data/shortsell.txt

and the daily shorts keep increasing.....

This will bounce back

They knew..

[Beagle]

No I am not a buyer at this level or close to it. No I am not trying to talk it down. I post how I see things regardless of whether its the populist view or not.
Some people dislike me for that and others appreciate me sharing my viewpoint frequently. Not everyone is going to like you on a public forum, that's just how it is....(Vince told me that once and that hits the nail squarely on the head)

[Leftfield]

From 9th September...one of many posts along similar lines.
I posed the question. The clues were there if you went sniffing for them but I basically got shouted out of this thread as a troll when all I was doing was warning of possible trouble ahead. Of course, as expected, nobody ever thanks you for being right when you are a portender of trouble coming. I was just trying to help but the zealots didn't want a bar of it.

Emotional attachment to a stock because its been very kind to you in the past can be a dangerous thing. No room for "attachment issues" with investing as far as I am concerned.

You seem to forget that same 'emotional attachment' has yielded some holders huge returns and provided a considerable 'safety buffer'.

Whether this is a short term dip or ATM transitioning from a 'high growth' company to simply a 'growth' company remains to be seen.

That said, I note that overall FY21 revenue are still forecast to be up 10% up on FY20. Thus SP drop over 10% or below $16 could be argued to be an 'over-reaction' and represents good buying for those so inclined.

This part of the news release is key.

It should be noted that the sale of infant formula through the daigou channel


is only one component of our multi-channel and multi-product sales strategy


into China. Our growth plan assumes MBS and CBEC sales will represent an


increasing proportion of our infant nutrition business over time, driven by


the continuing growth in underlying consumer demand."



Still a valued part of my portfolio and I don't intend selling. JMHO. DYOR.

[Balance]

No I am not a buyer at this level or close to it. No I am not trying to talk it down. I post how I see things regardless of whether its the populist view or not.
Some people dislike me for that and others appreciate me sharing my viewpoint frequently. Not everyone is going to like you on a public forum, that's just how it is....(Vince told me that once and that hits the nail squarely on the head)



Those of us around long enough have learnt (and through bitter experiences at the beginning) to heed some investment adages which have proven to be sound and wise over time and again.

One adage is that Downgrades do come in threes irrespective of what a company or management tell you.

Another is not to try and catch falling swords - you may not have many fingers left!

[jonu]

Those of us around long enough have learnt (and through bitter experiences at the beginning) to heed some investment adages which have proven to be sound and wise over time and again.

One adage is that Downgrades do come in threes irrespective of what a company or management tell you.

Another is not to try and catch falling swords - you may not have many fingers left!

The bad news comes in 3s adage applies to companies with something fundamentally wrong IMHO. I don't see ATM in that boat.

[Beagle]

Yes absolutely people should DYOR. Was a lovely and very fast ride up to $13 in March 2018 as I have mentioned before and I can certainly understand long term holders having trouble accepting that the fast growth of the past has dramatically slowed.

Fact is they said "Group revenue for FY21 of $1.80 billion to $1.90 billion" At the mid point of $1850m this is just a 6.87% increase on last year $1731m.
Further, this modest uplift is predicated upon 2H sales being $1,100m v 1H being $750m an uplift in 2H over current sales level's of 47% !!
Investors have to decide for themselves if in the current Covid environment whether that's really plausible or not..

Balance's well known saying of downgrades always come is three's is FAR more often right than not...its going to be very easy for them to say in the future because of XYZ this and Covid that...2H sales disappointed. They have to have a target of some growth this year after recent statements of strong growth and directors selling down...so they have to let shareholders down as gently as possible...or at least that's how I see it. I know that's a pretty cynical view but that's my read on it.

But how can 6.87% growth possibly be considered to be strong ? What did directors really know that they were not telling shareholders when they recently sold down ?
This does smell a little like old fish past its "use by" date.

A robust debate and exchange of varying viewpoints is always a valuable thing for everyone Left field, even if to some people it is sometimes misconstrued as "grumpy ranting".
Not intended as advice, no position held, DYOR.

[Sideshow Bob]

You seem to forget that same 'emotional attachment' has yielded some holders huge returns and provided a considerable 'safety buffer'.

Whether this is a short term dip or ATM transitioning from a 'high growth' company to simply a 'growth' company remains to be seen.

That said, I note that overall FY21 revenue are still forecast to be up 10% up on FY20. Thus SP drop over 10% or below $16 could be argued to be an 'over-reaction' and represents good buying for those so inclined.

This part of the news release is key.

It should be noted that the sale of infant formula through the daigou channel


is only one component of our multi-channel and multi-product sales strategy


into China. Our growth plan assumes MBS and CBEC sales will represent an


increasing proportion of our infant nutrition business over time, driven by


the continuing growth in underlying consumer demand."



Still a valued part of my portfolio and I don't intend selling. JMHO. DYOR.

While they may be pursuing other strategies in China, just goes to show what a HUGE amount goes through that daigou channel.

Then the next question is the brand, and sales channel in China - presumably there is still good demand for A2 product? Since the daigou is less available, obviously they are not expecting any sort of corresponding uplift in sales directly through their Chinese channels. So is it a trust, an availability or a price issue?

[Balance]

The bad news comes in 3s adage applies to companies with something fundamentally wrong IMHO. I don't see ATM in that boat.

It’s just the nature of things that most downgrades come in threes, whether the companies are good or bad companies.

Directors and management like to believe that any set backs are temporary and one offs - so they tend to underplay the downgrade when it comes.

[Beagle]

It’s just the nature of things that most downgrades come in threes, whether the companies are good or bad companies.

Directors and management like to believe that any set backs are temporary and one offs - so they tend to underplay the downgrade when it comes.

Sales are down this half but they'll rebound by 47% next half. Hmmm. Unconscious bias, denial of the truth or truly legendary forecasting ability in an unprecedented Covid environment ? Plenty of food for thought for investors.

[winner69]

Sales are down this half but they'll rebound by 47% next half. Hmmm. Unconscious bias, denial of the truth or truly legendary forecasting ability in an unprecedented Covid environment ? Plenty of food for thought for investors.

Hope you don’t compare them to Comvita ..that’ll cause a stormy debate

[Sideshow Bob]

Daylight saving delays the fun on the ASX....

Down $1.43 (8.3%) at the moment.

[Sideshow Bob]

Sales are down this half but they'll rebound by 47% next half. Hmmm. Unconscious bias, denial of the truth or truly legendary forecasting ability in an unprecedented Covid environment ? Plenty of food for thought for investors.

But couldn't update/predict such a large H1 drop less than 6 weeks ago for the Annual Result, but then forecast that in H2.

Tui.......

[Beagle]

Hope you don’t compare them to Comvita ..that’ll cause a stormy debate

I'm not that brave lol. But wait, there's more..the shares are now bouncing back...what could possibly go wrong ;)

[flyinglizard]

Updated good news,

Daigou channel in Australia seems to back to business normal since today

https://www.9news.com.au/national/coronavirus-melbourne-curfew-lifts-as-more-restrictions-ease-in-covid-lockdown-roadmap/4474750e-2654-427a-a2f9-6d863f56aa71

New online live stream channel records high in China this year.

https://news.cgtn.com/news/33457a4e78514464776c6d636a4e6e62684a4856/index.html


Channel: live stream on Chinese Tiktok, but have to find the right individuals.
T-mall and taobao (alibaba), 11th of Nov

https://techcrunch.com/2019/11/11/alibaba-singles-day-record/


Q2 is not a "hope", it depends how ATM acts and response.

[NZSilver]

Can someone please let me know what the original guidance was vs downgrade?

[couta1]

As one of the top 100 holders I will be selling no shares other than to buy more back cheaper, no one and I mean absolutely no one will shake me out of this holding and I can be an incredibly determined person who knows how to get through tough times. PS-87% of the company is owned by big and bigger fish and only 13% by reef fish which includes shorters, who has the firepower to win in the end?

[winner69]

Can someone please let me know what the original guidance was vs downgrade?

Strong revenue growth and 30% to 31% e its margin

But had a few ifs and buts around that and the ifs and buts came true

[couta1]

Those of us around long enough have learnt (and through bitter experiences at the beginning) to heed some investment adages which have proven to be sound and wise over time and again.

One adage is that Downgrades do come in threes irrespective of what a company or management tell you.

Another is not to try and catch falling swords - you may not have many fingers left! You have been wrong about A2 on a couple of previous occasions, could this be a third?

[NZSilver]

Strong revenue growth and 30% to 31% e its margin

But had a few ifs and buts around that and the ifs and buts came true

Did they give a range/numbers

[Balance]

You have been wrong about A2 on a couple of previous occasions, could this be a third?

Just a general statement about downgrades coming in threes from me, couta1.

A2 has been heck of a great investment for many of us, including me and I am not knocking its business - more the general psychology around why management & directors persist with multiple downgrades.

[Bjauck]

As one of the top 100 holders I will be selling no shares other than to buy more back cheaper, no one and I mean absolutely no one will shake me out of this holding and I can be an incredibly determined person who knows how to get through tough times. PS-87% of the company is owned by big and bigger fish and only 13% by reef fish which includes shorters, who has the firepower to win in the end? As a matter of interest, as you are one of the apex ocean giants, and one who will hold your holding no mater what by the sounds of it, what do you get out of reading and posting on a public forum populated mostly by reef fish (and bottom dwellers)?

[couta1]

As a matter of interest, as you are one of the apex ocean giants, and one who will hold your holding no mater what by the sounds of it, what do you get out of reading and posting on a public forum populated mostly by reef fish (and bottom dwellers)? I don't see where I mentioned being one of the apex ocean giants, I said top 100 holder, I post to encourage those that may be finding it tough at the moment to stay strong,reef fish comment is just the reality of things.

[winner69]

Did they give a range/numbers

No ..leave that to brokers/analysts to guess

[Beagle]

Can someone please let me know what the original guidance was vs downgrade?

The original guidance was for "strong growth". No specific numbers were given. There was then some insider party selling.
I posted average analyst forecasted growth and the revised mid point of the new sales projections earlier today. Summary - At the mid point of the new official company forecast sales are projected to grow less than 7%. (I will leave others to decide if that meets the definition of "strong growth") On average before today's update analysts were projecting sales growth of 18% on 31% EBITDA margin.

Disc: No position in this one. I post because I enjoy a good debate and enjoy sharing a view that is often different to the consensus. Its never intended as or should be relied upon as advice and everyone is responsible for their own decision making.

[Cyclical]

Interesting times. I jumped out a couple of weeks ago for what amounted to about a 4% loss for a couple of reasons, 1 being some of the talk around here got me a little nervous, 2 I needed to free up some cash for something and 3, with the cyclical nature of the ATM SP at this time of the year, coupled with that aforementioned nervousness, I figured I could probably jump back in later at about the same price or less. However, sitting on the sidelines at this point, it's certainly not confidence inspiring when you look at recent results, announcements, H1 and H2 projections and this all coupled with the immaculate timing of recent directors sell downs. One can't help but think that today's announcement couldn't have been timed any differently given the directors sales activity while at the same time be forward looking enough to still be able to paint a rosy picture and then blame the crystal ball in the event H2 doesn't deliver on that 47% uplift (Wow, covid clearly isn't going to be a factor for that half then).

Of course it could all be a ploy to get the weak hands to let go, of which I'm one. Yeah, nah, I'll sit tight with a Tui in hand and re-access a bit later down the track for a possible reentry point. Meanwhile, I'm expecting this downgrade and dodgy feel about it all will accentuate the usual seasonal slide.

[dreamcatcher]

Oh dear another raid!! ........ Could be ANOTHER burn date coming shortly for the borrowed share boys if a2 starts running low on weak hands.

[Beagle]

Interesting times. I jumped out a couple of weeks ago for what amounted to about a 4% loss for a couple of reasons, 1 being some of the talk around here got me a little nervous, 2 I needed to free up some cash for something and 3, with the cyclical nature of the ATM SP at this time of the year, coupled with that aforementioned nervousness, I figured I could probably jump back in later at about the same price or less. However, sitting on the sidelines at this point, it's certainly not confidence inspiring when you look at recent results, announcements, H1 and H2 projections and this all coupled with the immaculate timing of recent directors sell downs. One can't help but think that today's announcement couldn't have been timed any differently given the directors sales activity while at the same time be forward looking enough to still be able to paint a rosy picture and then blame the crystal ball in the event H2 doesn't deliver on that 47% uplift (Wow, covid clearly isn't going to be a factor for that half then).

Of course it could all be a ploy to get the weak hands to let go, of which I'm one. Yeah, nah, I'll sit tight with a Tui in hand and re-access a bit later down the track for a possible reentry point. Meanwhile, I'm expecting this downgrade and dodgy feel about it all will accentuate the usual seasonal slide.

I have a dozen Tui's here. Covid won't affect 2H sales which will rebound 47% from current sales level's. YEAH RIGHT. That registered a very solid reading on this dog's creative corporate B.S. meter.

[bull....]

imagine if a2 doesnt make its optimistic 2nd half outlook be amegedon on the share price

[Bjauck]

I don't see where I mentioned being one of the apex ocean giants, I said top 100 holder, I post to encourage those that may be finding it tough at the moment to stay strong,reef fish comment is just the reality of things.
Guess it must be a question of perspective - One of the Top 100 in ATM looks like an ocean giant as I peer up from the murky depths below :)

I always appreciate your perspectives.

[winner69]

I have a dozen Tui's here. Covid won't affect 2H sales which will rebound 47% from current sales level's. YEAH RIGHT. That registered a very solid reading on this dog's creative corporate B.S. meter.

I think you are taking being mischievous to a new creative level with your 47% number

[jonu]

imagine if a2 doesnt make its optimistic 2nd half outlook be amegedon on the share price

Methinks this hasn't gone as low as the bull would like.

[Hello123]

Methinks this hasn't gone as low as the bull would like.

Pre-close will be interesting.

[Beagle]

I think you are taking being mischievous to a new creative level with your 47% number

Based on simple facts mate. Mid point of annual sales forecast over mid point of sales of IH shows the company is projecting sales of $1,100m for 2H compared to $750m for H1 so sales are forecasted 1100/750 = 46.67% higher in 2H than what they doing in this half. (Note I made it clear from the outset that the 47% growth forecasted in 2H is based on 1H sales, not what they did in 2H in FY20).

No creative license, creative accounting or mischievousness whatsoever in that...all based on the forecasted figures the company itself provided.

Don't blame me if your abacus isn't working properly :p

[winner69]

Based on simple facts mate. Mid point of annual sales forecast over mid point of sales of IH shows the company is projecting sales of $1,100m for 2H compared to $750m for H1 so sales are forecasted 1100/750 = 46.67% higher in 2H than what they doing in this half. (Note I made it clear from the outset that the 47% growth forecasted in 2H is based on 1H sales, not what they did in 2H in FY20).

No creative license, creative accounting or mischievousness whatsoever in that...all based on the forecasted figures the company itself provided.

Don't blame me if your abacus isn't working properly :p

OK if not mischievous just misleading

H2 sales are always more than H1 sales so your logic is rather like some of what politicians use - full of crap and very creative etc etc etc

Based on forecasted figures the highest H2 sales are likely to be are 1175m (H1 725m and high FY 1900m) which would be 27% more than H2 20

Your 47% is (don't know what word to put in here)

Taking your favourite midpoint approach H1 would be down 7% on last year and H2 would be up 19% - now be fair and say this is a more realistic view of reality than your scaremongering 47%

[Beagle]

So I'm misleading, full of crap, mischievous if not misleading, very creative etc etc etc and more adjectives you can't find as well as deliberately scaremongering.

I reckon, (won't stoop to name calling and accusatory adjectives like some people) :p you're confused about 1H-2H split from previous years because you've failed to consider that 2H has traditionally been a lot stronger because of the previous years ongoing sales growth throughout the years....but hey...what would I know as a beancounter for nearly 40 years...this is all new to me right :p

What if sales growth is really modest compared to 1H FY21 in 2H...ouch I better not pose that question otherwise I might get accused of scaremongering again.
Couldn't possibly happen if the Covid crisis rolls on...not possible :rolleyes:

I think you better go and scape the rust off your abacus mate.

[macduffy]

So I'm misleading, full of crap, mischievous if not misleading, very creative etc etc etc and more adjectives you can't find as well as deliberately scaremongering.

WOW who needs enemies with friends like you :p

Sounding like a few dogs I have known!

;)

[Balance]

49m shares shorted as at last update.

Guess there’s some short coverings today to lock in gains.

Be fascinating after the analysts have had a chat with the company, what updated numbers and recommendations they will be coming out with in the next few days given the sp is already way down on its peak in August.

[winner69]

So I'm misleading, full of crap, mischievous if not misleading, very creative etc etc etc and more adjectives you can't find as well as deliberately scaremongering.

WOW who needs enemies with friends like you :p

Only in this instance

Don’t take it to heart .....You’ll get over it :t_up:;)


Just didn’t want some to think they needed to do 47% better

[couta1]

Guess it must be a question of perspective - One of the Top 100 in ATM looks like an ocean giant as I peer up from the murky depths below :)

I always appreciate your perspectives. No worries, you need all kinds of fish to make a completely balanced marine ecosystem.

[Beagle]

Only in this instance

Don’t take it to heart .....You’ll get over it :t_up:;)


Just didn’t want some to think they needed to do 47% better

Shame they do need to lift sales in 2H FY21 47% over 1H FY21 then....but who cares...your analysis a classic case of people will interpret the data whatever way they want to.

[tomm]

Created another big gap for uptrend. I am happy :)

[humvee]

Motley Fool have put a BUY recommendation on ATM.
Yes, I can hear the skeptics rising on the validity of their advice, but it is what it is, and the SP is rising.

Just curious which MF package was this? never saw it mentioned on mine

[Getty]

Came through as a video update, sept 25, Share Advisor.

[Balance]

Just curious which MF package was this? never saw it mentioned on mine

https://www.fool.com.au/2020/09/28/a2-milk-asxa2m-share-price-on-watch-after-guidance-update/

[dreamcatcher]

Numbers today NZ 2.1m Aus currently 10m looks like a slow grind ...........All three USA indexes showing green

[Ggcc]

One of the stubborn ones that is still holding onto their shares. $14 prediction today pftttt. I remember hopping into a company named sirtex. I sold after a downgrade at $12......... Silly me, 6 weeks later they had a takeaway offer for $30+. I would not be surprised to see this happening with ATM at some stage. Only a prediction not fact.

[couta1]

One of the stubborn ones that is still holding onto their shares. $14 prediction today pftttt. I remember hopping into a company named sirtex. I sold after a downgrade at $12......... Silly me, 6 weeks later they had a takeaway offer for $30+. I would not be surprised to see this happening with ATM at some stage. Only a prediction not fact. Stubborn is the right trait to have when faced with these situations, I've been shaken out of big holdings before and lost big coin,once things reversed the sp has ended up well north of my sell price given time. I hung tight with BAL as I could see there was a good chance of a takeover and was glad I did, apply these thoughts to A2 to make the correct decision.

[Ggcc]

Stubborn is the right trait to have when faced with these situations, I've been shaken out of big holdings before and lost big coin,once things reversed the sp has ended up well north of my sell price given time. I hung tight with BAL as I could see there was a good chance of a takeover and was glad I did, apply these thoughts to A2 to make the correct decision.
When you don’t need the money why sell? It’s a longterm hold for me. Well at least a 5 year hold. People who advise you to sell and buy cheaper........ That is trading, not investing

[flyinglizard]

Thinks of A2 recently three-year sp movement pattern ( down during Q1, then slowly up during Q2, Q3), that could be caused by consumer behaviour.

Q1 in China is summer, most of areas are over 40 degree, super hot. Two reasons that they may buy less dairy products during this season.

- Babies drink less warm milk than other season. Human nature, just too hot.
- Chinese parents worry about of the storage of infant milk powder under high temperature, that may have negative impact on the quality of milk products. This has not been approved by scientists though.
- Sales always surge from the mid of Oct.

The facts are confirmed by two Daigou Shops, the sales of health supplementary products also show the same seasonal pattern.

[couta1]

Obviously plenty on here hoping for more juicy drops so they can buy in. Beware of their motivations before you listen too closely folks! Yes indeed, you can trust some of these individuals about as much as a bull in a china shop.

[dreamcatcher]

- Sales always surge from the mid of Oct.

The facts are confirmed by two Daigou Shops, the sales of health supplementary products also show the same seasonal pattern.

Question - Why does sales always surge in mid Oct

Answer - Stockpiling for US $38 Billion 11/11 Singles Day Shopping Extravaganza then 12/12 known as Double12 Shopping Extravagaza finally Chinese New Year

[LEMON]

I dunno what the big panic is. It's still a solid company with future growths.

Think today just proves how scared everyone gets when they look for the market reaction rather than the simple straightforward announcement for the company they have invested in.

The market never plays ball so why get your panties in a twist. Even if A2 is a slow-growth company it's still a growth company with much more areas to expand in the future.

[Baa_Baa]

Yes indeed, you can trust some of these individuals about as much as a bull in a china shop.

You can criticise those who choose to stand on the sidelines and wait for inevitable price weakness, which ATM has consistently offered?

Or wait and buy that weakness. The market is dynamic, it has no Emotion, we can only choose when we buy or sell. Whether we do or not doesn’t define us.

[flyinglizard]

Question - Why does sales always surge in mid Oct

Answer - Stockpiling for US $38 Billion 11/11 Singles Day Shopping Extravaganza then 12/12 known as Double12 Shopping Extravagaza finally Chinese New Year

Exactly! The shipping and Chinese customs clearance during Jan-Feb are extremely slow. Daigou said that their customers purchase double or triple amount every Oct and Nov, making sure their babies have enough to be fed till early of next Mar. Sounds logical.

[dreamcatcher]

Exactly! The shipping and Chinese customs clearance during Jan-Feb are extremely slow. Daigou said that their customers purchase double or triple amount every Oct and Nov, making sure their babies have enough to be fed till early of next Mar. Sounds logical.

NO.... (11/11) 11th Nov is Alibaba's $38 Billion Dollar 24hr Singles Shopping Extravaganza ............as 12/12

https://news.cgtn.com/news/2019-11-11/Tmall-sales-hit-10-billion-yuan-in-one-minute-36-seconds-LvX01PnAU8/index.html

[Beagle]

49m shares shorted as at last update.

Guess there’s some short coverings today to lock in gains.

Be fascinating after the analysts have had a chat with the company, what updated numbers and recommendations they will be coming out with in the next few days given the sp is already way down on its peak in August.

Down more than 20% from the peak but is that enough given the quite significant change in outlook ?
Sure will be mate. What's the bet there's a few analysts with some questions of how in August 2020 the talk was of strong growth, then directors sell and now in Sept 2020 they're talking weak growth. What's the next update, no growth ?

[nztx]

Is what we are seeing a repeat of factors playing out similar to last year ?

Aug through Nov 2019 saw a retreat

Any guesses on the 'bottom' given modified 2020 economic factors present now ? ;)

[Motley Crew]

As one of the top 100 holders I will be selling no shares other than to buy more back cheaper, no one and I mean absolutely no one will shake me out of this holding and I can be an incredibly determined person who knows how to get through tough times. PS-87% of the company is owned by big and bigger fish and only 13% by reef fish which includes shorters, who has the firepower to win in the end?

Absolutely correct. This is a long term growth stock, not a short term trading stock. Anyone buying it for the latter will inevitably get their fingers burnt. While the SP will likely continue to drift off until the value proposition returns, this is still one of the best companies on the NZX for future returns. Take a look at the SP chart over the last 2 years - 2018 hit $14, fell 36% to $9. Then 100% gain to $18 in 2019 before 32% fall to $12.25. Then 76% gain to $21.50 before current retreat. Each of these retreats presents a great buying opportunity to top up and ride the next wave up. If you are a long term holder (as I am - average buy in $5.30) these dips are just great. So many commentators on this forum getting their knickers in a twist over some short term (and I mean 12 months - see the SP charts) weakness. Hold and add to your holding if you believe in this company and don't try to time your exit and re-entry points - you will inevitably be too late to jump back in when the better news comes out. If you like technical analysis wait for the shorter end trends to stabilise and begin to firm - that may yet be some time away. The bottom line is these lower SP levels are eventual buying opportunities. Where else in this market can you find relatively easy potential 30% upside in a blue chip company ? Greedy traders might look for those returns over a shorter time horizon, but how many are actually successful ? With a 187% return over 3 years at today's SP, I will biding my time until the signals look good, and will be topping up my holding. Nothing better than making the same money twice on the same price rise as previously, with a greater share holding. instead of agonising over what is now past history, start looking forward to the opportunities ahead, and recognise them when they present themselves....

[couta1]

Absolutely correct. This is a long term growth stock, not a short term trading stock. Anyone buying it for the latter will inevitably get their fingers burnt. While the SP will likely continue to drift off until the value proposition returns, this is still one of the best companies on the NZX for future returns. Take a look at the SP chart over the last 2 years - 2018 hit $14, fell 36% to $9. Then 100% gain to $18 in 2019 before 32% fall to $12.25. Then 76% gain to $21.50 before current retreat. Each of these retreats presents a great buying opportunity to top up and ride the next wave up. If you are a long term holder (as I am - average buy in $5.30) these dips are just great. So many commentators on this forum getting their knickers in a twist over some short term (and I mean 12 months - see the SP charts) weakness. Hold and add to your holding if you believe in this company and don't try to time your exit and re-entry points - you will inevitably be too late to jump back in when the better news comes out. If you like technical analysis wait for the shorter end trends to stabilise and begin to firm - that may yet be some time away. The bottom line is these lower SP levels are eventual buying opportunities. Where else in this market can you find relatively easy potential 30% upside in a blue chip company ? Greedy traders might look for those returns over a shorter time horizon, but how many are actually successful ? With a 187% return over 3 years at today's SP, I will biding my time until the signals look good, and will be topping up my holding. Nothing better than making the same money twice on the same price rise as previously, with a greater share holding. instead of agonising over what is now past history, start looking forward to the opportunities ahead, and recognise them when they present themselves.... Thank you for your excellent post, as you have correctly highlighted this stock has previously had annual falls from it's highs of up to 36%, this fact seems to be too hard for the knockers/trolls and down rampers to grasp. PS-36% off the latest high equals $13.91.

[Shareguy]

The stock is a cornerstone large long-term holding with a very low average cost of five dollars. The question to be asked I think ,is this a structural issue or not? I believe it’s not and have brought more.

[BlackPeter]

Thank you for your excellent post, as you have correctly highlighted this stock has previously had annual falls from it's highs of up to 36%, this fact seems to be too hard for the knockers/trolls and down rampers to grasp. PS-36% off the latest high equals $13.91.

I can't help, but somehow it feels you are ways too much emotionally involved in this stock, which does seem to impact on the manners. Too many eggs in just one basket? Personally I try to avoid these situations by diversification, but if your doctor says that high blood pressure is good for you, then don't change anything ;):

People who are stating that the SP is (currently) in the doldrums and might go lower are just stating the obvious - they are neither downrampers nor trolls. People who noticed this annual share price pattern which may or may not repeat this year don't need to be greedy traders - maybe they are just clever investors? Of course - the pattern might change, and in this case they missed a chance and need to pick another one. Benefit of hindsight - as always - will clear it up.

I can see good reasons for holding this stock as well as for selling high and buying back in low. Different strategies, and sometimes one and sometimes the other turns out to be more successful. No need to loose ones countenance.

From a personal perspective - I would not have bought at recent highs, but if it drops a bit more I might be tempted. However - I don't see ATM (from here) as a safe bet to becoming rich - even if it might have worked that way in the past ... but this is the thing about past performance not guaranteeing future performance. They might well keep growing as they did in the past (though there are some laws of nature making fast movements more difficult if you are big ...) or they might get caught in one of Trumpets trade wars. Who knows?

[couta1]

I can't help, but somehow it feels you are ways too much emotionally involved in this stock, which does seem to impact on the manners. Too many eggs in just one basket? Personally I try to avoid these situations by diversification, but if your doctor says that high blood pressure is good for you, then don't change anything ;):

People who are stating that the SP is (currently) in the doldrums and might go lower are just stating the obvious - they are neither downrampers nor trolls. People who noticed this annual share price pattern which may or may not repeat this year don't need to be greedy traders - maybe they are just clever investors? Of course - the pattern might change, and in this case they missed a chance and need to pick another one. Benefit of hindsight - as always - will clear it up.

I can see good reasons for holding this stock as well as for selling high and buying back in low. Different strategies, and sometimes one and sometimes the other turns out to be more successful. No need to loose ones countenance.

From a personal perspective - I would not have bought at recent highs, but if it drops a bit more I might be tempted. However - I don't see ATM (from here) as a safe bet to becoming rich - even if it might have worked that way in the past ... but this is the thing about past performance not guaranteeing future performance. They might well keep growing as they did in the past (though there are some laws of nature making fast movements more difficult if you are big ...) or they might get caught in one of Trumpets trade wars. Who knows? I have excellent blood pressure for a 59 yr old at 115/65 so my emotions can't be too far out of check. PS-Yes there are some genuine counter posts but then again there are many that are not as I stated in my above post, their motives define them.

[winner69]

I have excellent blood pressure for a 59 yr old at 115/65 so my emotions can't be too far out of check.

...and what I have seen a happy mindset

Back from skiing yet

[couta1]

...and what I have seen a happy mindset

Back from skiing yet Yep but looking to get a few more days in at Turoa.

[couta1]

Actually this thread is still pretty good compared to the A2m thread over on hotcopper, every Troll in creation has come out if the woodwork over there, you need a double barreled Trollgun to make any progress.

[Dotbond]

I love reading this thread, learning so much. Cheers guys

[Alpha]

Likewise have been learning heaps and enjoy the banter back and forth.

[Motley Crew]

I have excellent blood pressure for a 59 yr old at 115/65 so my emotions can't be too far out of check. PS-Yes there are some genuine counter posts but then again there are many that are not as I stated in my above post, their motives define them.

Hey Couta. You sound like my twin ! 59yrs and BP of 118/75. I don't lose any sleep holding quality, with some good yielders in there to keep the bank account topped up. My big winner has been XRO with initial average buy in after participating in SPP's of $1.81. Keep up the good work :)

[bull....]

i dont think a2 will meet there full year forecasts , the daigou trade is of less relevance going forward and is unlikely to bounce back anytime soon and it now accepted as fact hence undergoing structural decline increased by covid trends. the surprising bit is daigou is large part of there business from au/nz so this might take time to replace.

digital is the future selling both online and social. a2 is addressing this with there increased store print in china and social events as well but will face increased competition from within china now thanks to the big push by locals.

[couta1]

Hey Couta. You sound like my twin ! 59yrs and BP of 118/75. I don't lose any sleep holding quality, with some good yielders in there to keep the bank account topped up. My big winner has been XRO with initial average buy in after participating in SPP's of $1.81. Keep up the good work :) Very cool, I really admire the long term XRO holders, well done.:t_up:

[winner69]

Very cool, I really admire the long term XRO holders, well done.:t_up:

Yeah agree ...they had to endure heaps of told you so like trolling as well eh

[bull....]

hammertime lol might have to have a milk bath tonight

[Pauper]

hammertime lol might have to have a milk bath tonight.

.....bull semen more like

[bull....]

Absolutely correct. This is a long term growth stock, not a short term trading stock. Anyone buying it for the latter will inevitably get their fingers burnt. While the SP will likely continue to drift off until the value proposition returns, this is still one of the best companies on the NZX for future returns. Take a look at the SP chart over the last 2 years - 2018 hit $14, fell 36% to $9. Then 100% gain to $18 in 2019 before 32% fall to $12.25. Then 76% gain to $21.50 before current retreat. Each of these retreats presents a great buying opportunity to top up and ride the next wave up. If you are a long term holder (as I am - average buy in $5.30) these dips are just great. So many commentators on this forum getting their knickers in a twist over some short term (and I mean 12 months - see the SP charts) weakness. Hold and add to your holding if you believe in this company and don't try to time your exit and re-entry points - you will inevitably be too late to jump back in when the better news comes out. If you like technical analysis wait for the shorter end trends to stabilise and begin to firm - that may yet be some time away. The bottom line is these lower SP levels are eventual buying opportunities. Where else in this market can you find relatively easy potential 30% upside in a blue chip company ? Greedy traders might look for those returns over a shorter time horizon, but how many are actually successful ? With a 187% return over 3 years at today's SP, I will biding my time until the signals look good, and will be topping up my holding. Nothing better than making the same money twice on the same price rise as previously, with a greater share holding. instead of agonising over what is now past history, start looking forward to the opportunities ahead, and recognise them when they present themselves....

bit of hoping there son , this time is different because this time theres a downgrade , in your analysis no such thing occurred so the comparison is stretched. power to the shorts who called it right

[couta1]

bit of hoping there son , this time is different because this time theres a downgrade , in your analysis no such thing occurred so the comparison is stretched. power to the shorts who called it right He has substance to his post though unlike all the bull**** we hear from you. PS-Ive got more news for you, its not going to drop 36% to $13.91 like in 2018 without a downgrade.

[bull....]

He has substance to his post though unlike all the bull**** we hear from you.

who's talking rubbish , my analysis is being rewarded

[dreamcatcher]

hammertime lol might have to have a milk bath tonight

Haha hammertime today and BBQ tomorrow..............gosh I miss the smell from those old charcoal models

USB First Take buy TP NZ$22.7o A2M believes this mainly reflects logistical challenges due to COVID-19 lockdown in Victoria

[couta1]

who's talking rubbish , my analysis is being rewarded LOL it doesn't take much to analyze a repeating pattern, same pattern for the 3rd year in a row but less drop from its high so far, good for you for your gain but don't pretend that you know its going to drop further this time cause you have no idea with any certainty.

[bull....]

LOL it doesn't take much to analyze a repeating pattern, same pattern for the 3rd year in a row but less drop from its high so far, good for you for your gain but don't pretend that you know its going to drop further this time cause you have no idea with any certainty.

cause i do , thats why im having a milk bath tonight. this stock needs to re-rate to reflect the future as its very expensive on fundamentals now

[Jiggs]

Lot of downward pressure at the moment, just as it looks like it might recover, down it goes again. Might go on like this for a while, last year the low point wasn't reached until early November & with so much uncertainty & turmoil in the US I suspect October could be pretty flat.

Thank you once again Blue Skies. After reading your appraisal on October 18th, I sold my ATM shares and bought Pushpay in their place. And in less than two weeks ATM has dropped 10% while PPH has shot up 10%.

[Motley Crew]

cause i do , thats why im having a milk bath tonight. this stock needs to re-rate to reflect the future as its very expensive on fundamentals now

One iron in the fire going a bit cold does not affect the diversified investor. My PPH and XRO are looking pretty good right now, not to mention my HLG I bought last week at $4.65. As I said, once the value proposition returns, top up and ride ATM back up again. I'll remind you when the time comes......

[Ggcc]

One iron in the fire going a bit cold does not affect the diversified investor. My PPH and XRO are looking pretty good right now, not to mention my HLG I bought last week at $4.65. As I said, once the value proposition returns, top up and ride ATM back up again. I'll remind you when the time comes......
Nowhere near my purchase price and will continue to hold and if I feel they are looking way too cheap, I will buy more. ATM again are my 5 year hold and reward scheme. Also, I am well diversified and all other shares are heading up or paying dividends and holding their price.

[bull....]

One iron in the fire going a bit cold does not affect the diversified investor. My PPH and XRO are looking pretty good right now, not to mention my HLG I bought last week at $4.65. As I said, once the value proposition returns, top up and ride ATM back up again. I'll remind you when the time comes......

totally , i might buy too when i think its value again

[Motley Crew]

Nowhere near my purchase price and will continue to hold and if I feel they are looking way too cheap, I will buy more. ATM again are my 5 year hold and reward scheme. Also, I am well diversified and all other shares are heading up or paying dividends and holding their price.

You are well positioned GG. Hang in there. Bailing out at the first sign of weakness seldom works out well, because you either mis-time your re-entry, or don't have the capital available at the right moment - especially if it's been sunk into some other stock you were confident about which hasn't panned out the way you wanted it to. The cream rises to the surface eventually.......

[Cyclical]

.....bull semen more like

(White) gold right there. 2 posts in over 6 years...quality over quantity :lol:

[Cyclical]

Thank you once again Blue Skies. After reading your appraisal on October 18th, I sold my ATM shares and bought Pushpay in their place. And in less than two weeks ATM has dropped 10% while PPH has shot up 10%.

There's some good foresight...noted.

[tomm]

Chart says it is deep oversold and will rebound, Victoria in Australia is coming out of lockdown from Monday. The profit is still up for the year 2021.
My assumption is GB is setting up an easy start ride for new CEO and ATM's future. The panic and stresses caused people's mentality as ever from every aspects of life's to make right/wrong choices atm which might cause people into a mentally thinking of being on the safe side when uncertainty news come out. Unfortunately, such news can also create opportunities for shorters and insto's to harvest. We shall see the balance in due time.
Also waiting for the Covid-19 vaccine come out in due course.

[BlackPeter]

FWIW ... just looked at the chart (haven't done that for a couple of days) and noticed that the current SP dropped ways below the MA400.

Now this could mean the beginning of a serious downturn, or it might offer a buying opportunity. Given that in previous years the dip below the MA400 signalled buying opportunities I just dipped my toes into the water.

Obviously - it well might drop further, but somehow I think that long term a buy in price around $14 65 will be o.k-ish - well, better than money in the bank ;).

[HKG2301]

I can't help, but somehow it feels you are ways too much emotionally involved in this stock, which does seem to impact on the manners. Too many eggs in just one basket? Personally I try to avoid these situations by diversification, but if your doctor says that high blood pressure is good for you, then don't change anything ;):

People who are stating that the SP is (currently) in the doldrums and might go lower are just stating the obvious - they are neither downrampers nor trolls. People who noticed this annual share price pattern which may or may not repeat this year don't need to be greedy traders - maybe they are just clever investors? Of course - the pattern might change, and in this case they missed a chance and need to pick another one. Benefit of hindsight - as always - will clear it up.

I can see good reasons for holding this stock as well as for selling high and buying back in low. Different strategies, and sometimes one and sometimes the other turns out to be more successful. No need to loose ones countenance.

From a personal perspective - I would not have bought at recent highs, but if it drops a bit more I might be tempted. However - I don't see ATM (from here) as a safe bet to becoming rich - even if it might have worked that way in the past ... but this is the thing about past performance not guaranteeing future performance. They might well keep growing as they did in the past (though there are some laws of nature making fast movements more difficult if you are big ...) or they might get caught in one of Trumpets trade wars. Who knows?

Well said, Peter.

I sold out of ATM earlier in the year, due to the April price surge being way OTT, and likely (as I saw it) a result of the 'Sharesies/RobinHooders' crowd piling into all the popular stocks.

Now buying back in again, as this sell-off seems an over-reaction to the daigou update from the company, which is hardly crushing.

I didn't catch the top when I took my earlier profits*, and likely won't have bought this recent bottom exactly, but content to acquire again at these levels. $1,568 was good enough for me.

* Nobody ever went broke taking profits in a frothy market!

[tomm]

Well said, Peter.

I sold out of ATM earlier in the year, due to the April price surge being way OTT, and likely (as I saw it) a result of the 'Sharesies/RobinHooders' crowd piling into all the popular stocks.

Now buying back in again, as this sell-off seems an over-reaction to the daigou update from the company, which is hardly crushing.

I didn't catch the top when I took my earlier profits*, and likely won't have bought this recent bottom exactly, but content to acquire again at these levels. $1,568 was good enough for me.

* Nobody ever went broke taking profits in a frothy market!
For this stock, there are countless of scenario's to make profits.

[tomm]

FWIW ... just looked at the chart (haven't done that for a couple of days) and noticed that the current SP dropped ways below the MA400.

Now this could mean the beginning of a serious downturn, or it might offer a buying opportunity. Given that in previous years the dip below the MA400 signalled buying opportunities I just dipped my toes into the water.

Obviously - it well might drop further, but somehow I think that long term a buy in price around $14 65 will be o.k-ish - well, better than money in the bank ;).
If we don't see a panic sell after the market close today, it is a very good sign.

[Getty]

I wonder whats going on in the Hardlicker cabinet at the moment.

Whats being served up dry, and whats on the rocks?

[tomm]

I think this will help. Courtesy to one of the guy whom I took it from.
11981

[couta1]

Well the NZX low today was only 5c lower than yesterday whilst the ASX low was 80c lower, perhaps the kiwis recognize value more than their Aussie cousins. Lol

[tomm]

Well the NZX low today was only 5c lower than yesterday whilst the ASX low was 80c lower, perhaps the kiwis recognize value more than their Aussie cousins. Lol
The mentality of the Ausie is unstable due to too long been in lockdown lol.

[RGR367]

I bought today more than a dollar less the bundle that I sold early this year. Hope it doesn't go farther down by a dollar more 'cuz I'll enjoy using most of my ML limit to acquire more. Those of us that accumulated at less than 60 cents then are not fazed by not so growth-inspiring update anymore :cool:

[Beagle]

https://www.goodreturns.co.nz/article/976517569/dairy-decline-pulls-market-lower-a2-leads-the-way.html?utm_source=GR&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=GoodReturns+Market+Report+for+29+Sep+ 2020

[Waltzing]

Mr B reminds me of David Lange... who used to be said would go bombing around the room at parties. You see him here, you see him there , you see him everywhere..

[couta1]

Will probably be another day of battling the Trolls especially over at hotcopper where you even have paid professional Trolls present, us long term holders are a tough bunch though and we won't be intimidated by truth stretching and nonsense. PS-Will be off skiing tomorrow so looking forward to the break.Lol

[Cyclical]

Will probably be another day of battling the Trolls especially over at hotcopper where you even have paid professional Trolls present, us long term holders are a tough bunch though and we won't be intimidated by truth stretching and nonsense. PS-Will be off skiing tomorrow so looking forward to the break.Lol

They do like to bang on over there at HC about the Australia - China relations and the negative impact on ATM, because it's an Aussie company of course...or we're just another state of Australia...one or the other. Here's hoping the Chinese are a bit more world wise.

[Gregnz]

They must be having a laugh over on HotCopper. The trolls definitely out in force today, quote from HotCopper:

“ very good post , i agree i think this aust / china thing will effect a2 quite a bit. they like to attack good ol aus companies”

[couta1]

They must be having a laugh over on HotCopper. The trolls definitely out in force today, quote from HotCopper:

“ very good post , i agree i think this aust / china thing will effect a2 quite a bit. they like to attack good ol aus companies” Fortunately you are able to put them in their place with your vocabulary choice and its allowed(Not profanity or vulgar language but words like numpty and idiot are acceptable)

[Cyclical]

Fortunately you are able to put them in their place with your vocabulary choice and its allowed(Not profanity or vulgar language but words like numpty and idiot are acceptable)

There does seem to be quite a bit of funny cross pollination between the 2 forums...thankfully it stops there. Meanwhile $15.60...cue for Bull came out and say hammertime or something?

[couta1]

There does seem to be quite a bit of funny cross pollination between the 2 forums...thankfully it stops there. Meanwhile $15.60...cue for Bull came out and say hammertime or something? Please don't encourage him, we don't need that nonsense.

[Waltzing]

I think i posted here a few weeks back that TA 15.60 was the next leg down... doesnt hold here and this thing will go lower. On previous TA it should move up if there is no bad news. We dont check the news on this one as we are busy on other things. But we do note its TA. If you bought in the last few weeks prehaps you did not notice the hole in the chart that was potentially coming up.. or POT HOLE if you like to use non technical jargon.

"Should have Held" its a hard lesson to learn even when you older and have been in the markets for a while..wait for the white of their eyes before you bail and you will make more, a lot more. We have missed making a lot on that one over the years. All the good ones you had to hold and dont sell until the rockets are lifting off.

[ShouldHaveHeld]

I am waiting for high $14s to get back in... or just buy what ever the price is during mid oct win or lose it will be a good hold again

[tomm]

I am waiting for high $14s to get back in... or just buy what ever the price is during mid oct win or lose it will be a good hold again
Best is looking for today the last day ,once 3 day's passed, the dead cat will bounce.

[alex f]

Best is looking for today the last day ,once 3 day's passed, the dead cat will bounce.

it’s those miserable Aussies dragging any bounce back down again.

The director sell down at $20 a month ago, I wonder how much he knew about this latest revelation?

[Cyclical]

Well I'm back on the board with a small buy in the low $15.30s. Remains to be seen if it's a good move or not. Will be happy to average down if opportunity presents as funds become available, but FOMO meant it was time to dip a toe in.

[Balance]

https://www.ig.com/en-ch/news-and-trade-ideas/how-4-brokers-reacted-to-a2-milk-s-fy21-profit-update-200929

Couple of brokers very dark on the downgrade.

[Sideshow Bob]

https://www.ig.com/en-ch/news-and-trade-ideas/how-4-brokers-reacted-to-a2-milk-s-fy21-profit-update-200929

Couple of brokers very dark on the downgrade.

At least that is AU dollars! ;) Only 75c away from the bottom price....

[couta1]

https://www.ig.com/en-ch/news-and-trade-ideas/how-4-brokers-reacted-to-a2-milk-s-fy21-profit-update-200929

Couple of brokers very dark on the downgrade. And others not so dark like UBS with a $22.50 NZ target but really all brokers targets are almost meaningless, you could just throw a dart at a dart board.

[Beagle]

https://www.ig.com/en-ch/news-and-trade-ideas/how-4-brokers-reacted-to-a2-milk-s-fy21-profit-update-200929

Couple of brokers very dark on the downgrade.

Thanks for posting mate. Couple of further thoughts drilling down into the governance and disclosure element of this which looks more murky the deeper one looks for the nuances of the choice of words.
In late August the directors in their presentation under outlook say "Notwithstanding these uncertainties, overall for FY21, we anticipate continued strong revenue growth supported by our continued investment in marketing and organisational capability (I'll come back to the bolded bit).

In the following ten days there was heavy and widespread selling by insiders including for example the CEO of the Asia Pacific division selling 750,000 of his 850,000 shares, i.e. nearly all of them https://www.nzx.com/announcements/358806

One month later they come out with quite substantially revised guidance , just 6.8% annual growth. $750m first half, $1,100m second half at the mid point.

Drilling down into the nuances of this the company's outlook statement which was released contemporaneously with their FY20 results with 33% revenue growth, wherein they said the outlook was for "continued strong revenue growth". The presentation itself was titled "Building from Strength" What I find interesting is the choice of words here.
They could very easily have said for example we expect continuing growth in sales and left the word "strong" out, or they could have toned it down with "albeit at growth level's that could be lower than last year. Continuing strong sales growth implies on the face of it growth at a very similar strong level to FY20, i.e. 33%.

You could make the case that the outlook statement and overall tone presented a less than accurate picture of their real expectations at that time. The substantial selling shortly thereafter (acknowledging they have very short windows of opportunity to effect this), is at best very poor optics.

I think there are grounds for shareholders to feel aggrieved that the original outlook statement was more than a little too optimistic which begs the question regarding 2H sales expectations being 47% higher than 1H. (A cynic might say that they had to release an update that showed some growth expectations or there would have been a riot at the annual meeting about the insiders selling). In my very long career as an accountant I have learned that the very best guide to the future is the most recent past, not what happened last year or the years before that. I am cynical about the strength of the 2H sales recovery and I think is highly likely shareholders will end up having to swallow a couple of dead Covid rats with further downgrades to come.

It should be obvious to all investors that there's FAR MORE risk around 2H sales forecasts than 1H and its contingent on the diagou sales channel fully recovering, but will it ? Downgrades come in three's (Balance). In my experience this is right well over 80% of the time. 2H sales recovery to that extent looks optimistic / just plain hopeful to me. But like almost all things about the future, very little is absolutely certain, all we can do is try and extrapolate off current information, known trends and obvious and less obvious risks. Time will tell...

[tomm]

Thanks for posting mate. Couple of further thoughts drilling down into the governance and disclosure element of this which looks more murky the deeper one looks for the nuances of the choice of words.
In late August the directors in their presentation under outlook say "Notwithstanding these uncertainties, overall for FY21, we anticipate continued strong revenue growth supported by our continued investment in marketing and organisational capability (I'll come back to the bolded bit).

In the following ten days there was heavy and widespread selling by insiders including for example the CEO of the Asia Pacific division selling 750,000 of his 850,000 shares, i.e. nearly all of them https://www.nzx.com/announcements/358806

One month later they come out with quite substantially revised guidance , just 6.8% annual growth. $750m first half, $1,100m second half at the mid point.

Drilling down into the nuances of this the company's outlook statement which was released contemporaneously with their FY20 results with 33% revenue growth, wherein they said the outlook was for "continued strong revenue growth". The presentation itself was titled "Building from Strength" What I find interesting is the choice of words here.
They could very easily have said for example we expect continuing growth in sales and left the word "strong" out, or they could have toned it down with "albeit at growth level's that could be lower than last year. Continuing strong sales growth implies on the face of it growth at a very similar strong level to FY20, i.e. 33%.

You could make the case that the outlook statement and overall tone presented a less than accurate picture of their real expectations at that time. The substantial selling shortly thereafter (acknowledging they have very short windows of opportunity to effect this), is at best very poor optics.

I think there are grounds for shareholders to feel aggrieved that the original outlook statement was more than a little too optimistic which begs the question regarding 2H sales expectations being 47% higher than 1H. (A cynic might say that they had to release an update that showed some growth expectations or there would have been a riot at the annual meeting about the insiders selling). In my very long career as an accountant I have learned that the very best guide to the future is the most recent past, not what happened last year or the years before that. I am cynical about the strength of the 2H sales recovery and I think is highly likely shareholders will end up having to swallow a couple of dead Cvid rats with further downgrades to come.

It should be obvious to all investors that there's FAR MORE risk around 2H sales forecasts than 1H and its contingent on the diagou sales channel fully recovering, but will it ? Downgrades come in three's (Balance). In my experience this is right well over 80% of the time. 2H sales recovery to that extent looks optimistic / just plain hopeful to me. But like almost all things about the future, very little is absolutely certain, all we can do is try and extrapolate off current information, known trends and obvious and less obvious risks. Time will tell...

All have been working out for you , it doesn't mater how smart or how practical you are , things are done , news are out and the big boys made the decision. I got the concluded here.

UBS has a price target of NZ$22.70 and a Buy rating on A2M.

Bell Potter has a price target of A$13.75 on A2M.
Morgan Stanley has a price target of NZ$13.50 on A2M.

Macquarie has a price target of A$17.95 on A2M.

It is undecisive, so I take the top and the lowest and take the average of NZD$13.50 and NZD$22.70 .
The average SP for ATM is : NZD$18.10 .

It is a bargain. The Shorters are at it again every year.


Thought???

[couta1]

All have been working out for you , it doesn't mater how smart or how practical you are , the big boys make the decision. I got the concluded here.

UBS has a price target of NZ$22.70 and a Buy rating on A2M.

Bell Potter has a price target of A$13.75 on A2M.
Morgan Stanley has a price target of NZ$13.50 on A2M.

Macquarie has a price target of A$17.95 on A2M.


And there are quite a few others but as I said basically meaningless, the companies future performance will decide the true price.

[nztx]

All have been working out for you , it doesn't mater how smart or how practical you are , the big boys make the decision. I got the concluded here.

UBS has a price target of NZ$22.70 and a Buy rating on A2M.

Bell Potter has a price target of A$13.75 on A2M.
Morgan Stanley has a price target of NZ$13.50 on A2M.

Macquarie has a price target of A$17.95 on A2M.





They're all over the place on ATM

what are the dates on each ?

What sort of Short overhang is there on ATM & has that increased or decreased ?

Any end of quarter tidy ups ?

[Beagle]

All have been working out for you , it doesn't mater how smart or how practical you are , things are done , news are out and the big boys made the decision. I got the concluded here.

UBS has a price target of NZ$22.70 and a Buy rating on A2M.

Bell Potter has a price target of A$13.75 on A2M.
Morgan Stanley has a price target of NZ$13.50 on A2M.

Macquarie has a price target of A$17.95 on A2M.

It is undecisive, so I take the top and the lowest and take the average of NZD$13.50 and NZD$22.70 .
The average SP for ATM is : NZD$18.10 .

It is a bargain. The Shorters are at it again every year.


Thought???



Concluding thoughts. Fundamentally the stock is extremely expensive for the forecast growth rate of 7% this year. Even with this rout at the time of posting the FY20 PE is over 29. I think there are far better opportunities for growth at a much cheaper price and it wouldn't surprise me in the slightest if there was no growth at all this year. Looking further out the Chinese communist party is whipping up tremendous nationalistic fervor to buy China made. I think growth in the future is going to be much tougher and more expensive to come by.

Growth has dramatically slowed over recent years and I think the best days growth are gone. It went from ~ $3 in March 2017 to $13 in March 2018 in just one year. You'll never see anything remotely like that again. From a TA perspective this still looks like a very risky hold to me. I think there's plenty more pain to come for shareholders in the short term. I'm in the Morgan Stanley camp and think $13.50 12 months hence is a fair call, (which suggests with a required rate of return on risk capital of say 10%) fair value is $13.50 /0.9 = ~ $12.15 now.

[tomm]

They're all over the place on ATM

what are the dates on each ?

What sort of Short overhang is there on ATM & has that increased or decreased ?

Any end of quarter tidy ups ?
Check these and see for yourself.
https://www.shortman.com.au/stock?q=a2m

[aperitif]

Peter Nathan holds 420,000 if you bothered to go and do some research you would know that. You have been and continue to be wrong

[tomm]

Concluding thoughts. Fundamentally the stock is extremely expensive for the forecast growth rate of 7% this year. Even with this rout the FY20 PE is over 2 Personally I think there will at best be no growth this year.
The Chinese communist party is whipping up tremendous nationalistic fervor to by China made. I think growth in the future is going to be much tougher and more expensive to come by.
Growth has dramatically slowed over recent years and I think the best days growth are behind this company. It went from ~ $3 in March 2017 to $13 in March 2018 in just one year. You'll never see anything remotely like that again.
Look at this current situation with the Covid-19, ofcourse everything is getting extremely hard for any and every business out there. But I gotta put my both hand to applause to ATM, has been dodged all the bullets so far until now. Even then they still confident the EBITDA will still be in line of 31%.

[Beagle]

$12.15 now gives FY20 PE of 22.6 which looks more realistic to me.

[bull....]

$12.15 now gives FY20 PE of 22.6 which looks more realistic to me.

looks to high to me for a company with no growth in the next year overall. will probably have ebbs up and down in price but i think the tops in this cycle. covid gave it a unexpected push up , but now that is a big negative tail wind now. once the bull market finishs as well it be priced on much lower multiples like most stocks

[Beagle]

I'm guessing high single figure growth from FY22 onwards for the next 7-10 years`..whether that's a safe assumption is anyone's guess.11983 With thanks to Moose for sending me the TA Chart

[couta1]

I remember when XRO went from $45 to $12, talk from all and sundry on here at the time was it was finished and would never climb to those heights again, well the rest is history, it left the NZX at $25NZ and is currently trading at over $100AU. A2 is having its annual drop aided by a blip downgrade and is sitting on a huge cash pile, those who think it has had its day need to study stories like the XRO one, quite frankly I've heard it all before and have been in the middle of it before and I'm not keen on repeating past mistakes by being shaken out.

[bull....]

Thanks for posting mate. Couple of further thoughts drilling down into the governance and disclosure element of this which looks more murky the deeper one looks for the nuances of the choice of words.
In late August the directors in their presentation under outlook say "Notwithstanding these uncertainties, overall for FY21, we anticipate continued strong revenue growth supported by our continued investment in marketing and organisational capability (I'll come back to the bolded bit).

In the following ten days there was heavy and widespread selling by insiders including for example the CEO of the Asia Pacific division selling 750,000 of his 850,000 shares, i.e. nearly all of them https://www.nzx.com/announcements/358806

One month later they come out with quite substantially revised guidance , just 6.8% annual growth. $750m first half, $1,100m second half at the mid point.

Drilling down into the nuances of this the company's outlook statement which was released contemporaneously with their FY20 results with 33% revenue growth, wherein they said the outlook was for "continued strong revenue growth". The presentation itself was titled "Building from Strength" What I find interesting is the choice of words here.
They could very easily have said for example we expect continuing growth in sales and left the word "strong" out, or they could have toned it down with "albeit at growth level's that could be lower than last year. Continuing strong sales growth implies on the face of it growth at a very similar strong level to FY20, i.e. 33%.

You could make the case that the outlook statement and overall tone presented a less than accurate picture of their real expectations at that time. The substantial selling shortly thereafter (acknowledging they have very short windows of opportunity to effect this), is at best very poor optics.

I think there are grounds for shareholders to feel aggrieved that the original outlook statement was more than a little too optimistic which begs the question regarding 2H sales expectations being 47% higher than 1H. (A cynic might say that they had to release an update that showed some growth expectations or there would have been a riot at the annual meeting about the insiders selling). In my very long career as an accountant I have learned that the very best guide to the future is the most recent past, not what happened last year or the years before that. I am cynical about the strength of the 2H sales recovery and I think is highly likely shareholders will end up having to swallow a couple of dead Covid rats with further downgrades to come.

It should be obvious to all investors that there's FAR MORE risk around 2H sales forecasts than 1H and its contingent on the diagou sales channel fully recovering, but will it ? Downgrades come in three's (Balance). In my experience this is right well over 80% of the time. 2H sales recovery to that extent looks optimistic / just plain hopeful to me. But like almost all things about the future, very little is absolutely certain, all we can do is try and extrapolate off current information, known trends and obvious and less obvious risks. Time will tell...

i dont think the insiders were doing anything wrong at all they clearly spelt out to all investors in there results risks were on the horizon , if people didnt listen its not there fault

[Cyclical]

$12.15 now gives FY20 PE of 22.6 which looks more realistic to me.

That kind of level doesn't bode well for the index. I hope everything is ok over there at FPH.

[Leftfield]

I remember when XRO went from $45 to $12, talk from all and sundry on here at the time was it was finished and would never climb to those heights again, well the rest is history, ...... A2 is having its annual drop aided by a blip downgrade and is sitting on a huge cash pile, those who think it has had its day need to study stories like the XRO one, quite frankly I've heard it all before and have been in the middle of it before and I'm not keen on repeating past mistakes by being shaken out.

My thinking too Couta, the XRO experience is still fresh in my mind too.

We came out of XRO just fine......... and I'm certainly not one to panic over ATM.

In the meantime I smile when I read how views have changed.......


Company has a great track record of positively surprising the market AND updating guidance that significantly exceeds previous guidance and I note they said they were happy with January's trading.
Considering Synlait have only just been able to start doubling their canning and drying capacity I think the market is in for a BIG surprise with 2H results and I think the research I posted recently from Bell Potter $A13 valuation which contained therein an earnings estimate for FY18 of just 30 cents per share $N.Z. is likely to be very conservative, notwithstanding the significant extra marketing spend in the U.S. in this second half to set the company up for more growth in FY19 and beyond. Odds on favorite to hit $20 sometime in the next few years, possibly much earlier than anyone on here might imagine.

I'll take that advice and continue to HOLD. Thanks Beagle. ;)

[Beagle]

looks to high to me for a company with no growth in the next year overall. will probably have ebbs up and down in price but i think the tops in this cycle. covid gave it a unexpected push up , but now that is a big negative tail wind now. once the bull market finishs as well it be priced on much lower multiples like most stocks
Yeah I think you have a good point, a forward PE of 22 is still quite high. Good yardstick is Danone which has been enjoying solid growth and is forecast to enjoy 15.5% EPS growth in FY21 and beyond and currently trading on a forward PE of just 15.6 That's a PEG ratio of just 1.0 for a food company ! Wow, that's growth at a very reasonable price right there ! https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/DANONE-4634/financials/
More on Danone here https://www.danone.com/investor-relations/danone-at-a-glance/facts-and-figures.html

Thanks for that quote Left Field...a wonderful journey down memory lane to years gone by. Looks like a quote from 2017. That was the last year the company grew really strongly with the share price up from $3 in March 2017 to $13 in March 2018. What a rush that was !! Its fun looking back at years gone by and remembering when shares used to be exciting, thanks, I enjoyed that, brought back great memories but there's no room in my investment strategy for emotional attachment to stocks based on past history. I find if you want to achieve market outperformance one needs to adapt their strategy to changing conditions.
I prefer GARP stocks mate, Growth at a reasonable price.

I for one can't see any point comparing a SAAS company like XRO with a dairy products company but if it gives you and Coutts some comfort I am pleased for you both.

[Ggcc]

I remember when XRO went from $45 to $12, talk from all and sundry on here at the time was it was finished and would never climb to those heights again, well the rest is history, it left the NZX at $25NZ and is currently trading at over $100AU. A2 is having its annual drop aided by a blip downgrade and is sitting on a huge cash pile, those who think it has had its day need to study stories like the XRO one, quite frankly I've heard it all before and have been in the middle of it before and I'm not keen on repeating past mistakes by being shaken out.
He who laughs last laughs longest..........

[Beagle]

Long term it will bounce back. I've taken the opportunity this evening to reflect on the level of pain shareholders who bought recently must be feeling so as my views of ATM have already been clearly articulated out of respect for holders there's no need for me to comment any further until we see what their interim result looks like in early 2021.

[James108]

Beagle says it is expensive based on no growth this year so sp may fall. But then will it be cheap based on some growth the year after? So confusing valueing shares.

[Balance]

Beagle says it is expensive based on no growth this year so sp may fall. But then will it be cheap based on some growth the year after? So confusing valueing shares.

Markets attempt to value companies & shares based upon long term projections.

There are investors who do invest with that long term horizon but the overwhelming number of market players focus on short term developments & news.

Therein lies the volatilities, risks and opportunities.

[Leftfield]

He who laughs last laughs longest..........

Very true.

When viewing the current SP blip some posters forget that long term holders have had over 8 years of compounding SP appreciation at around 100% pa.

8 years (or so) of compounding 100% pa gives holders a huge buffer to weather any storms. Going forward, even if that return falls to 50% or 25%, the compounding effect will still yield a much higher av return than the NZX50 (IMHO)

For new holders at current SP's the picture is more tough (but again long term holders have had periods of similar drama throughout their holding.) This hiccup will pass. Uncertainty is 'Business as Usual' for investors.

The long term picture is;

- ATM provides high margin returns in a very basic needed commodity segment (food/drink/nutrition)
- ATM is outperforming its competitors and has a proven value proposition
- The Daigou distribution channel may be suffering in the short term, but it was by nature opportunistic and is rapidly being replaced better - Channels ie 5000 new Mother and Baby stores in China.
- ATM is well diversified internationally
- ATM is still sitting on a huge cash fund
- CEO Geoff has a long record of 'under promising' and 'over delivering'

- The biggest possible negative IMHO is possible difficulties with the incoming new CEO. Shorters will play this to the max and weak hands will lose.



Long term it will bounce back. I've taken the opportunity this evening to reflect on the level of pain shareholders who bought recently must be feeling so as my views of ATM have already been clearly articulated out of respect for holders there's no need for me to comment any further until we see what their interim result looks like in early 2021.

Well said Beagle.

Let's all sit back and let this play out. (FWIW I'm much more concerned about the unknowns of the USA election)

GLH and DYOR.

[Sideshow Bob]

New substantial holder by the looks of it....

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/360722

[tomm]

New substantial holder by the looks of it....

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/360722
It is proven the shake and coup of the shares.


They sold:
Date of relevant event: 30 June 2020Date this disclosure made: 2 July 2020
Pendal Group Limited
For last disclosure,—(a) total number held in class: 38,896,079(b) total in class: 739,830,151(c) total percentage held in class: 5.26%
For current holding after ceasing to have substantial holding,—(a) total number held in class: 34,462,527(b) total in class: 739,830,151(c) total percentage held in class: 4.66%

And they have been quietly buying back all of their shares.
Date this disclosure made: 30 September 2020Date on which substantial holding began: 28 September 2020
Pendal Group Limited
For this disclosure,—(a) total number held in class: 38,355,845(b) total in class:742,588,971(c) total percentage held in class: 5.165%

I feel sorry to those whom sold recently .

[bull....]

Very true.

When viewing the current SP blip some posters forget that long term holders have had over 8 years of compounding SP appreciation at around 100% pa.

8 years (or so) of compounding 100% pa gives holders a huge buffer to weather any storms. Going forward, even if that return falls to 50% or 25%, the compounding effect will still yield a much higher av return than the NZX50 (IMHO)

For new holders at current SP's the picture is more tough (but again long term holders have had periods of similar drama throughout their holding.) This hiccup will pass. Uncertainty is 'Business as Usual' for investors.

The long term picture is;

- ATM provides high margin returns in a very basic needed commodity segment (food/drink/nutrition)
- ATM is outperforming its competitors and has a proven value proposition
- The Daigou distribution channel may be suffering in the short term, but it was by nature opportunistic and is rapidly being replaced better - Channels ie 5000 new Mother and Baby stores in China.
- ATM is well diversified internationally
- ATM is still sitting on a huge cash fund
- CEO Geoff has a long record of 'under promising' and 'over delivering'

- The biggest possible negative IMHO is possible difficulties with the incoming new CEO. Shorters will play this to the max and weak hands will lose.



you fail too mention how the effects of negative compounding affect returns on an investment. currently a2 is providing negative compounding returns to long term holders

[Cyclical]

Long term it will bounce back. I've taken the opportunity this evening to reflect on the level of pain shareholders who bought recently must be feeling so as my views of ATM have already been clearly articulated out of respect for holders there's no need for me to comment any further until we see what their interim result looks like in early 2021.

Don't make promises you can't deliver on now Beagle ;)

This place wouldn't be what it is without counter viewpoints, whether dedicated holders want to hear them or not. I'm back on the board with this stock in a very small way, but I'm not intending to hide under a rock, block out the noise and pretend everything is just swell and that I'll double my money in 12 months. Comments like yours feed into my decision process to help me determine if I invest (or speculate, as the case may be), at what entry point and to what extent. Keep them coming.

[tomm]

It is proven the shake and coup of the shares. Insto's and shorters. As I mentioned before The Insto's invest alots of money and ATM doesn't give a divident, this is how they make money.


They sold:
Date of relevant event: 30 June 2020Date this disclosure made:2 July 2020
Pendal Group Limited
For last disclosure,—(a) total number held in class: 38,896,079(b) total in class: 739,830,151(c) total percentage held in class: 5.26%
For current holding after ceasing to have substantial holding,—(a) total number held in class: 34,462,527(b) total in class: 739,830,151(c) total percentage held in class: 4.66%

And they have been quietly buying back all of their shares.
Date this disclosure made: 30 September 2020Date on which substantial holding began: 28 September 2020
Pendal Group Limited
For this disclosure,—(a) total number held in class: 38,355,845(b) total in class:742,588,971(c) total percentage held in class: 5.165%

I feel sorry to those whom sold recently .

[Leftfield]

you fail too mention how the effects of negative compounding affect returns on an investment. currently a2 is providing negative compounding returns to long term holders

Even at current lows long term holders still tracking at more than 3x's the current NZ50 index av ....... can you prove you are doing better?? (especially after you pay your short term trading taxes ;))

[jonu]

It is proven the shake and coup of the shares.


They sold:
Date of relevant event: 30 June 2020Date this disclosure made: 2 July 2020
Pendal Group Limited
For last disclosure,—(a) total number held in class: 38,896,079(b) total in class: 739,830,151(c) total percentage held in class: 5.26%
For current holding after ceasing to have substantial holding,—(a) total number held in class: 34,462,527(b) total in class: 739,830,151(c) total percentage held in class: 4.66%

And they have been quietly buying back all of their shares.
Date this disclosure made: 30 September 2020Date on which substantial holding began: 28 September 2020
Pendal Group Limited
For this disclosure,—(a) total number held in class: 38,355,845(b) total in class:742,588,971(c) total percentage held in class: 5.165%

I feel sorry to those whom sold recently .

There was some extraordinarily obvious shakeout trading occurring the last few days. The Market Authorities really should be on top of this behaviour.
I'm expecting a strong rally today. End of September Quarter out of the way plus the old 3 days selling mantra is done.

[Maverick]

Don't make promises you can't deliver on now Beagle ;)

This place wouldn't be what it is without counter viewpoints, whether dedicated holders want to hear them or not. I'm back on the board with this stock in a very small way, but I'm not intending to hide under a rock, block out the noise and pretend everything is just swell and that I'll double my money in 12 months. Comments like yours feed into my decision process to help me determine if I invest (or speculate, as the case may be), at what entry point and to what extent. Keep them coming.
Here here Cyclical! totally agree with you and I`ll add I think its very healthy that anyone can change their mind and as new information is forthcoming.

Disc, don't hold these. My view is the glory days of the lucrative daigou channels of the past are now over since China (and supplying countries to a degree) has now put in regulation in early 2019 . Also I believe the high margins enjoyed to date will keep eroding as competition gears up with increased supply and exacerbated with increasing costs of distribution. But this has all been well documented here already.

There are enough parties involved in this global milk trade at arms length from each other working separately that the big picture of supply and demand will only be clear in hindsight. Way too risky at this price for a value investor as myself. Just my opinion of course.

[tomm]

There was some extraordinarily obvious shakeout trading occurring the last few days. The Market Authorities really should be on top of this behaviour.
I'm expecting a strong rally today. End of September Quarter out of the way plus the old 3 days selling mantra is done.
Yes , I agree on this and unfortunately that is how it happened.

It is proven the shake and coup of the shares. Insto's and shorters. As I mentioned before The Insto's invest alots of money and ATM doesn't give a divident, this is how they make money.


They sold:
Date of relevant event: 30 June 2020Date this disclosure made:2 July 2020
Pendal Group Limited
For last disclosure,—(a) total number held in class: 38,896,079(b) total in class: 739,830,151(c) total percentage held in class: 5.26%
For current holding after ceasing to have substantial holding,—(a) total number held in class: 34,462,527(b) total in class: 739,830,151(c) total percentage held in class: 4.66%

And they have been quietly buying back all of their shares.
Date this disclosure made: 30 September 2020Date on which substantial holding began: 28 September 2020
Pendal Group Limited
For this disclosure,—(a) total number held in class: 38,355,845(b) total in class:742,588,971(c) total percentage held in class: 5.165%

I feel sorry to those whom sold recently .

[Cyclical]

There was some extraordinarily obvious shakeout trading occurring the last few days. The Market Authorities really should be on top of this behaviour.
I'm expecting a strong rally today. End of September Quarter out of the way plus the old 3 days selling mantra is done.

Curious to know what makes you come to that conclusion? Apart from the example tomm has provided (twice), which really could just be what any other trader would like to pull off...sell high, buy low, what evidence do we have? And even if there was a deliberate attempt to shake the tree, would there be anything illegal in doing so?

[bull....]

Even at current lows long term holders still tracking at more than 3x's the current NZ50 index av ....... can you prove you are doing better?? (especially after you pay your short term trading taxes ;))

i dont need to prove anything , but if i had too it would be impressive but we are off topic heres a link to anyone who's interested in how negative compunding affects returns

Overcoming Compounding's Dark Sidehttps://www.investopedia.com/articles/06/compoundingdarkside.asp

[bull....]

Yes , I agree on this and unfortunately that is how it happened.

It is proven the shake and coup of the shares. Insto's and shorters. As I mentioned before The Insto's invest alots of money and ATM doesn't give a divident, this is how they make money.


They sold:
Date of relevant event: 30 June 2020Date this disclosure made:2 July 2020
Pendal Group Limited
For last disclosure,—(a) total number held in class: 38,896,079(b) total in class: 739,830,151(c) total percentage held in class: 5.26%
For current holding after ceasing to have substantial holding,—(a) total number held in class: 34,462,527(b) total in class: 739,830,151(c) total percentage held in class: 4.66%

And they have been quietly buying back all of their shares.
Date this disclosure made: 30 September 2020Date on which substantial holding began: 28 September 2020
Pendal Group Limited
For this disclosure,—(a) total number held in class: 38,355,845(b) total in class:742,588,971(c) total percentage held in class: 5.165%

I feel sorry to those whom sold recently .

they might have only sold down to just under 5% hardly tree shaking considering the volumes thru everyday

[peat]

I'm back on the board

We have an insider! ;)

[tomm]

they might have only sold down to just under 5% hardly tree shaking considering the volumes thru everyday
That 5% is 4.5m of shares. Sold High , Bough Low. Also proven this stock is at a bargain.

[Cyclical]

We have an insider! ;)

Haha, if only! Unfortunately I'm not trading hundreds of thousands of ATM stock!

[Sideshow Bob]

That 5% is 4.5m of shares. Sold High , Bough Low. Also proven this stock is at a bargain.

Doesn't really say when they bought and sold.....

But given it says they became a substantial holder on Monday, they must have bought at the very uleast 0.166% = 1.23m shares bought Monday.

[tomm]

Doesn't really say when they bought and sold.....

But given it says they became a substantial holder on Monday, they must have bought at the very uleast 0.166% = 1.23m shares bought Monday.
The day before and yesterday, signalling for a bottom.

And they have been quietly buying back all of their shares.
Date this disclosure made: 30 September 2020Date on which substantial holding began: 28 September 2020
Pendal Group Limited
For this disclosure,—(a) total number held in class: 38,355,845(b) total in class:742,588,971(c) total percentage held in class: 5.165%

[bull....]

current pe 29 bit rich

[see weed]

Hello hello hello. $1.20 under Morn star valuation What is that song Burning ring of tarts?

[Blue Skies]

There was some extraordinarily obvious shakeout trading occurring the last few days. The Market Authorities really should be on top of this behaviour.
I'm expecting a strong rally today. End of September Quarter out of the way plus the old 3 days selling mantra is done.


Well that doesn't seem to be working out too well! Jeepers $14 something, here we come?

[jonu]

Well that doesn't seem to be working out too well! Jeepers $14 something, here we come?

Well it started out ok! I still think it will bounce.

[bull....]

wheres all the rampers that were calling for $25

[Getty]

Their ATM machine's have malfunctioned.

[Gregnz]

Right, I’m all in, $75k at $15.06, only time will tell if it’s a good long term investment or not.

[allfromacell]

wheres all the rampers that were calling for $25

Congratulations on being correct so far. :) I think $14AUD looks like a good pace to close your short.

[see weed]

wheres all the rampers that were calling for $25
:cool::D:t_up::) Got a buy order in at 14.94 atm. My av price for remaining holding is $2.98. Still 380k in green.

[clearasmud]

:cool::D:t_up::) Got a buy order in at 14.94 atm. My av price for remaining holding is $2.98. Still 380k in green.
Nice Seeweed!

[Jiggs]

I must admit I sold all my ATMs for $17.60 three weeks ago, but I don't think that shook the tree very hard. ShareClarity is giving them a $15 value and Simply Wall St a potential of $20, but I might be better to go and get my old Aunty Sheila to read the tea leaves in the bottom of my cup before buying all 300 of my shares back again.

[sb9]

:cool::D:t_up::) Got a buy order in at 14.94 atm. My av price for remaining holding is $2.98. Still 380k in green.

That's where I'm aiming to plunge in too when it gets into $14 range if and when. And my long term hold av price is $1.74 with first purchase at $0.58c and bit higher for further lots...

[Pauper]

:cool::D:t_up::) Got a buy order in at 14.94 atm. My av price for remaining holding is $2.98. Still 380k in green.

Good luck see weed! Admire your discipline. Had to jump in today. Takes my average up to $3.57. First in @ 60 cents. Down a modest house this week but still up over $650k. Biggest mistake was selling 20k @ $7.23 three years ago as a birthday present.

[Sideshow Bob]

Good luck see weed! Admire your discipline. Had to jump in today. Takes my average up to $3.57. First in @ 60 cents. Down a modest house this week but still up over $650k. Biggest mistake was selling 20k @ $7.23 three years ago as a birthday present.

I really enjoyed your 3rd post! $650k......great work!! :t_up:

[bull....]

the smartest thing to do is to take some money of the table as profits now and then esp when sitting on such large profit. no such thing as it last for ever in the stock market

[Pauper]

:cool::D:t_up::) Got a buy order in at 14.94 atm. My av price for remaining holding is $2.98. Still 380k in green.


I really enjoyed your 3rd post! $650k......great work!! :t_up:

Crikey! Thought the bitches we’re all on Hotcopper🙄

[see weed]

Good luck see weed! Admire your discipline. Had to jump in today. Takes my average up to $3.57. First in @ 60 cents. Down a modest house this week but still up over $650k. Biggest mistake was selling 20k @ $7.23 three years ago as a birthday present.
Good work Pauper. The funny thing is on 6/10/17 and the 9/10/17 I bought 16,000 in 4 blocks of 4,000 in each block for 7.10, 7.16, 7.18 and 7.36. Must of bought yours. At the time it was pretty scary being at the top of the cycle:), but they kept on going up:t_up:.

[Pauper]

:cool::D:t_up::) Got a buy order in at 14.94 atm. My av price for remaining holding is $2.98. Still 380k in green.


Good work Pauper. The funny thing is on 6/10/17 and the 9/10/17 I bought 16,000 in 4 blocks of 4,000 in each block for 7.10, 7.16, 7.18 and 7.36. Must of bought yours. At the time it was pretty scary being at the top of the cycle:), but they kept on going up:t_up:.

Well done mate! Been there! Sold out of RYM & SUM to go all in on ATM only for the price to drop immediately! Happens 99% of the time with me. It will probably be no different this time, but seems to pay off in the long run. Rarely post but have followed you since the very early days. Your enthusiasm has been inspirational - thanks!