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see weed
01-10-2020, 06:11 PM
the smartest thing to do is to take some money of the table as profits now and then esp when sitting on such large profit. no such thing as it last for ever in the stock market
Already have. Sold about 60% of holding to get into div stocks and power companies. A2 is just doing the usual 12 monthly up down cycle. :eek2:

bull....
01-10-2020, 06:34 PM
Already have. Sold about 60% of holding to get into div stocks and power companies. A2 is just doing the usual 12 monthly up down cycle. :eek2:

good stuff you did strike me as being a bit smarter than some others on here , gee even the directors insiders follow the motto of taking some profits off the table to enjoy there windfall in most companies

JohnnyTheHorse
01-10-2020, 07:39 PM
My odds are on a bounce starting from tomorrow:

- Lower low created today, but no real follow through seen
- RSI massively oversold on most timeframes
- An hourly higher low looks to be forming, but need ASX to break 14.13 tomorrow to confirm hourly uptrend
- Massive short interest. Expect a rush to cover if that hourly uptrend is confirmed

Disc: took a half sized long position on close today with a very tight stop. Will add the other half on a confirmation of hourly uptrend.

longy
02-10-2020, 12:07 AM
Does any one familiar with the term "Report Gross Short sale"? Is it correct to assume that these are the number of shares that shorters sold on the open market or bought and sold as well?
The Gross short sale on Monday was 4,619,317, Tuesday was 3,661,712 and yesterday was 2,097,303.

clearasmud
02-10-2020, 03:36 AM
My odds are on a bounce starting from tomorrow:

- Lower low created today, but no real follow through seen
- RSI massively oversold on most timeframes
- An hourly higher low looks to be forming, but need ASX to break 14.13 tomorrow to confirm hourly uptrend
- Massive short interest. Expect a rush to cover if that hourly uptrend is confirmed

Disc: took a half sized long position on close today with a very tight stop. Will add the other half on a confirmation of hourly uptrend.
I wouldn't be in a hurry.
Is there not a waning growth rate and a doubt about that growth rate.
All Ammunition for shorters.
Forward pe still high 20's no?

JohnnyTheHorse
02-10-2020, 08:19 AM
I wouldn't be in a hurry.
Is there not a waning growth rate and a doubt about that growth rate.
All Ammunition for shorters.
Forward pe still high 20's no?

I am only looking for a short term oversold bounce.

Leftfield
02-10-2020, 08:34 AM
Forward pe still high 20's no?

Classic argument.......no clear answer. Ever since I've been investing good company's are always deemed 'expensive' in terms of PE.

I smiled when Winner pointed awhile ago that if ATM was on the same PE as FPH its SP would be closer to $30 (Just saying.)

Real question is.... what is the appropriate PE for a company such as ATM?

Leftfield
02-10-2020, 08:42 AM
:cool::D:t_up::) Got a buy order in at 14.94 atm. My av price for remaining holding is $2.98. Still 380k in green.


Good luck see weed! Admire your discipline. Had to jump in today. Takes my average up to $3.57. First in @ 60 cents. Down a modest house this week but still up over $650k. Biggest mistake was selling 20k @ $7.23 three years ago as a birthday present.


Great to read of such success.

ATM great for traders and great for long term holders (even shorters now doing well!!).. ..... well done all.

tomm
02-10-2020, 11:29 AM
If daigou can not take home the A2M tins, mean the demand within the country does increase. E=MC2
Turn around the baby's capacity requirement for A2M is the same. It is just same seat different plane.

Thoughts?

BlackPeter
02-10-2020, 12:30 PM
If daigou can not take home the A2M tins, mean the demand within the country does increase. E=MC2
Turn around the baby's capacity requirement for A2M is the same. It is just same seat different plane.

Thoughts?

Not sure it is that easy. Billions of babies managed to grow up without the benefit of A2 A2IF. There are plenty of other infant formulas around in China, and some of them are even as well A2 and from abroad.

Sure - I realize that we think A2 IF is the champagne of the Infant formulas (and maybe it is), but hey - if you are thirsty and can't buy champagne, than maybe you find out that some other bubblies are drinkable as well - if you see what I mean.

While it is well possible that the A2 IF using so far the Daigou channel finds another way into China, I don't think there is a guarantee that it will be as efficient ...

Sideshow Bob
02-10-2020, 12:38 PM
Not sure it is that easy. Billions of babies managed to grow up without the benefit of A2 A2IF. There are plenty of other infant formulas around in China, and some of them are even as well A2 and from abroad.

Sure - I realize that we think A2 IF is the champagne of the Infant formulas (and maybe it is), but hey - if you are thirsty and can't buy champagne, than maybe you find out that some other bubblies are drinkable as well - if you see what I mean.

While it is well possible that the A2 IF using so far the Daigou channel finds another way into China, I don't think there is a guarantee that it will be as efficient ...

And then there is always the competition.....even organic!

https://www.foodnavigator-asia.com/Article/2020/08/04/Danone-China-s-Aptamil-range-banks-on-new-HMO-A2-formulas-for-further-success#

tomm
02-10-2020, 12:41 PM
Not sure it is that easy. Billions of babies managed to grow up without the benefit of A2 A2IF. There are plenty of other infant formulas around in China, and some of them are even as well A2 and from abroad.

Sure - I realize that we think A2 IF is the champagne of the Infant formulas (and maybe it is), but hey - if you are thirsty and can't buy champagne, than maybe you find out that some other bubblies are drinkable as well - if you see what I mean.

While it is well possible that the A2 IF using so far the Daigou channel finds another way into China, I don't think there is a guarantee that it will be as efficient ...
The struggling China is still battle with its own quality record. People don't take it as thing come thing goes.
We are talking about the demand for high class people to ensure their babies are safe and healthy to other classes. A2M is a brand of unchangable.

If Daigou can not take home the A2M tins, mean the demand within the country does increase. E=MC2
Turn around the baby's capacity requirement for A2M is the same. It is just same seat different plane.

bull....
02-10-2020, 01:02 PM
a2 in the top 10 most shorted stocks now

couta1
02-10-2020, 01:09 PM
a2 in the top 10 most shorted stocks now Nothing new, it was in the top 10 last year as well and it probably will be next year. PS-It still hasn't dropped as far as it did in 2018/19 from its high either. There really is nothing new under the sun here as much as you and a few others might try and say otherwise.

LEMON
02-10-2020, 01:12 PM
A2 is also beneficial for Lactose intolerant people, China supports one of the largest populations likely with lactose issues, unlike Europeans who had been digesting Dairy for longer periods of time but also have large numbers who suffer from lactose issues.

A2 is a big brand now and a good team driving the helm, just like coca-cola, we all know it to be good bad and ugly but people still buy it for its name.

The way the world's going who knows maybe another large baby powder panic buy is on its way driving the price back up.

Not exactly like A2 is struggling as a business.

mfd
02-10-2020, 01:20 PM
A2 is no better for the truly lactose intolerant - it contains the same lactose in the same quantities as regular milk. It is missing the A1 protein which some who think they are lactose intolerant may actually be reacting to.

The outcome is the same - lots of people who cannot tolerate regular milk are fine with A2. This is a huge selling point. Add in the longer term impact of less risk of heart disease, diabetes and various other conditions and it's an obvious decision.

LEMON
02-10-2020, 01:20 PM
I also believe China is doing amazing with pulling many of its own people out of poverty I think something like 850 million people, that's a lot of middle class looking for good quality products. The Chinese sure love good brands.

LEMON
02-10-2020, 01:22 PM
A2 is no better for the truly lactose intolerant - it contains the same lactose in the same quantities as regular milk. It is missing the A1 protein which some who think they are lactose intolerant may actually be reacting to.

The outcome is the same - lots of people who cannot tolerate regular milk are fine with A2. This is a huge selling point. Add in the longer-term impact of less risk of heart disease, diabetes and various other conditions and it's an obvious decision.

Again though good bad or ugly it's the name, I have seen coca cola take rust of a car bumper and renew dirty old coins yet how much of that stuff is consumed every year

bull....
02-10-2020, 01:26 PM
I also believe China is doing amazing with pulling many of its own people out of poverty I think something like 850 million people, that's a lot of middle class looking for good quality products. The Chinese sure love good brands.

yes but the chinese govt wants its people to buy local brands and putting policies in place to encourage this

LEMON
02-10-2020, 01:31 PM
yes but the Chinese govt wants its people to buy local brands and putting policies in place to encourage this

Yeah, they are in a trade wars with the USA cause Trump wants to isolate American to do the same thing but local and MAGA but china needs trade and without buying foreign products who will want to return the interest in trade.

I think NZ is way of Chinas trade exclusion radar

couta1
02-10-2020, 01:39 PM
yes but the chinese govt wants its people to buy local brands and putting policies in place to encourage this blah blah, it won't happen in any meaningful way.

LEMON
02-10-2020, 01:42 PM
You also need to think feed millions of people alone in China. A2 milk is a food source. It's more technology and furnishings they want their own people buying, not food, it would be hard to feed millions with only their own soil especially with droughts and floods

bull....
02-10-2020, 01:46 PM
blah blah, it won't happen in any meaningful way.


i guess your busy implementing your short strategy lol

couta1
02-10-2020, 01:48 PM
You also need to think feed millions of people alone in China. A2 milk is a food source. It's more technology and furnishings they want their own people buying, not food, it would be hard to feed millions with only their own soil especially with droughts and floods We know that but downrampers and trolls ain't interested in positive information.

bull....
02-10-2020, 01:54 PM
You also need to think feed millions of people alone in China. A2 milk is a food source. It's more technology and furnishings they want their own people buying, not food, it would be hard to feed millions with only their own soil especially with droughts and floods

have to disagree china wants there brands to be leaders in all categories , still room for a2 but how big? not the leader in the long run my opinion be feihei

Lion_graf
02-10-2020, 02:12 PM
It's not possible for China to be able to feed it's own people even if it got to the point where they wanted to supply all their people with food manufactured in China. They have a big land mass but it's only really the south that is good for growing crops and farms etc. Most of the country is unsuitable both soil and climate wise.

flyinglizard
02-10-2020, 02:15 PM
11985
11986

Facts: Aug 2020, NZ diary export increased by 10%, according to NZ Stats

All the temp shakeup on A2 is based on relationship betw OZ & China. Every 12pm -1pm when ASX opens, ATM will be dragged down by A2M. look at 1 min chart, the pattern is out there.

Akane
02-10-2020, 02:38 PM
1) There are debates of if A2 is beneficial, there are papers saying there is, there are articles that say it doesn't.
2) It doesn't matter, China wants to be less reliant on foreign imports, as they're expanding aggressively and upsetting a lot of other countries, therefore they want to be less reliant.
3) The Chinese have a huge demand on trusted and branded items. Their mouth say China #1, "we have the best in the world", whilst holding their iPhones, driving their European cars and using American and Japanese electronics, so there will always be demand. They say they love Chinese goods but it's all a facade, the numbers speakers for itself.

This concludes that even though I have seriously doubt of the actual A2 product (A product that can be copied, reproduced, repackaged etc by other companies, doubts and debates on health benefits etc), the demand is there due to the branding and the desire for the product as I mentioned above. I'm sure ATM won't fall over anytime soon. The counter argument is that there's only so much IF you can sell to the population on this planet, eventually there will be no more growth, have we reached that point?

tomm
02-10-2020, 03:03 PM
1) There are debates of if A2 is beneficial, there are papers saying there is, there are articles that say it doesn't.
2) It doesn't matter, China wants to be less reliant on foreign imports, as they're expanding aggressively and upsetting a lot of other countries, therefore they want to be less reliant.
3) The Chinese have a huge demand on trusted and branded items. Their mouth say China #1, "we have the best in the world", whilst holding their iPhones, driving their European cars and using American and Japanese electronics, so there will always be demand. They say they love Chinese goods but it's all a facade, the numbers speakers for itself.

This concludes that even though I have seriously doubt of the actual A2 product (A product that can be copied, reproduced, repackaged etc by other companies, doubts and debates on health benefits etc), the demand is there due to the branding and the desire for the product as I mentioned above. I'm sure ATM won't fall over anytime soon. The counter argument is that there's only so much IF you can sell to the population on this planet, eventually there will be no more growth, have we reached that point?
Totally agree with you. I myself HOLD, for this stock you will never know. As stated I think, if Daigou can not take home the A2M tins, mean the demand within the country does increase. E=MC2
Turn around the baby's capacity requirement for A2M is the same. It is just same seat different plane.

bull....
02-10-2020, 03:09 PM
1) There are debates of if A2 is beneficial, there are papers saying there is, there are articles that say it doesn't.
2) It doesn't matter, China wants to be less reliant on foreign imports, as they're expanding aggressively and upsetting a lot of other countries, therefore they want to be less reliant.
3) The Chinese have a huge demand on trusted and branded items. Their mouth say China #1, "we have the best in the world", whilst holding their iPhones, driving their European cars and using American and Japanese electronics, so there will always be demand. They say they love Chinese goods but it's all a facade, the numbers speakers for itself.

This concludes that even though I have seriously doubt of the actual A2 product (A product that can be copied, reproduced, repackaged etc by other companies, doubts and debates on health benefits etc), the demand is there due to the branding and the desire for the product as I mentioned above. I'm sure ATM won't fall over anytime soon. The counter argument is that there's only so much IF you can sell to the population on this planet, eventually there will be no more growth, have we reached that point?

we have this big issue too

The COVID-19 episode will likely lead to a large, lasting baby bust

https://www.brookings.edu/research/half-a-million-fewer-children-the-coming-covid-baby-bust/

BlackPeter
02-10-2020, 04:05 PM
The struggling China is still battle with its own quality record. People don't take it as thing come thing goes.
We are talking about the demand for high class people to ensure their babies are safe and healthy to other classes. A2M is a brand of unchangable.

If Daigou can not take home the A2M tins, mean the demand within the country does increase. E=MC2
Turn around the baby's capacity requirement for A2M is the same. It is just same seat different plane.

You make a lot of assumptions ... which may or may not agree with reality ;), however, as they say: 没有什么是不变的 , not even brands :p:

BlackPeter
02-10-2020, 04:13 PM
we have this big issue too

The COVID-19 episode will likely lead to a large, lasting baby bust

https://www.brookings.edu/research/half-a-million-fewer-children-the-coming-covid-baby-bust/

Interesting read ... not just related to A2. Cheers.

tomm
02-10-2020, 04:30 PM
Down ramping show obvious. At AUS$14.03 , they put 78k shares.

Gregnz
02-10-2020, 05:03 PM
Looks like the trend down has reversed. First day where it’s closed higher than the previous close. Or is it still too soon to call?

Waltzing
02-10-2020, 05:12 PM
TA Bounce on the chart. Traders will be buying.

Leftfield
06-10-2020, 11:56 AM
TA Bounce on the chart. Traders will be buying.

Hey Bull...... are you still shorting?

bull....
06-10-2020, 12:25 PM
Hey Bull...... are you still shorting?

yes my trailing stop at around 17 now , just having a bounce from oversold levels and of a support level so we will see how it plays out

couta1
06-10-2020, 12:47 PM
The short frypan is now on the element waiting patiently to be turned on, cant wait.

Gregnz
06-10-2020, 01:20 PM
The short frypan is now on the element waiting patiently to be turned on, cant wait.

I’m not familiar with the whole shorting thing, are you saying you are expecting the stock to drop and the shorters to return, or expecting the share price to increase and shorters to go up in smoke? Thanks

couta1
06-10-2020, 01:29 PM
I’m not familiar with the whole shorting thing, are you saying you are expecting the stock to drop and the shorters to return, or expecting the share price to increase and shorters to go up in smoke? Thanks The latter as is always eventually the case.

Gregnz
06-10-2020, 01:31 PM
The latter as is always eventually the case.

Thanks. Still learning here.

couta1
06-10-2020, 01:35 PM
Thanks. Still learning here. Your in the right club then cause so are the rest of us.

Leftfield
06-10-2020, 01:37 PM
yes my trailing stop at around 17 now , just having a bounce from oversold levels and of a support level so we will see how it plays out

Just checking......( Interesting gap waiting to be filled above current levels.)

Leftfield
06-10-2020, 02:29 PM
I’m not familiar with the whole shorting thing, are you saying you are expecting the stock to drop and the shorters to return, or expecting the share price to increase and shorters to go up in smoke? Thanks

FWIW....... approx 87% of ATM's shares are now held by the top 140 holders compared to approx 7% of the shares held by 'shorters.'

The long term odd's are seemingly still with the 'steady hands' 87%, while at the moment the shorters may have fared ok in the current down-turn. How long that lasts remains to be seen.

Ted2
06-10-2020, 05:57 PM
FWIW....... approx 87% of ATM's shares are now held by the top 140 holders compared to approx 7% of the shares held by 'shorters.'

The long term odd's are seemingly still with the 'steady hands' 87%, while at the moment the shorters may have fared ok in the current down-turn. How long that lasts remains to be seen.

Where do you get that shareholder info Lefty? I thought only brokers seemed to have access to full holder info.

Leftfield
06-10-2020, 06:58 PM
Where do you get that shareholder info Lefty? I thought only brokers seemed to have access to full holder info.

ATM SH info was published in their FY20 Annual Report (pages 105 & 106)
Shorting info via Shortman see here (https://www.shortman.com.au/stock?q=a2m). (note recent short interest beginning to decline)

Quite chuffed to see my holding puts me amongst the top 1800 shareholders :t_up:

see weed
07-10-2020, 01:14 AM
Your in the right club then cause so are the rest of us.
You can say that again. Bought in on open for 15.70...fomo:eek2: Then thought, that was silly, when Aussi opens it will come down as usual. So followed it down and bought another lot on close at 15.42.

Leftfield
07-10-2020, 09:04 AM
You can say that again. Bought in on open for 15.70...fomo:eek2: Then thought, that was silly, when Aussi opens it will come down as usual. So followed it down and bought another lot on close at 15.42.

With the failure of the US stimulus talks there may well be more buying opportunities this week.

For a long term view of ATM, I recently discovered this May 2020 blog "A2 the 2200% monster next door" (https://mattjoass.com/2020/05/17/a2-milk-the-story-of-the-monster-next-door/). Enjoy.

see weed
07-10-2020, 09:48 AM
Is that you couta1, 170,000 at $16.25c :)......3 minutes later they gone.:confused:

BlackPeter
07-10-2020, 09:49 AM
With the failure of the US stimulus talks there may well be more buying opportunities this week.

For a long term view of ATM, I recently discovered this May 2020 blog "A2 the 2200% monster next door" (https://mattjoass.com/2020/05/17/a2-milk-the-story-of-the-monster-next-door/). Enjoy.

Interesting read. Cheers for sharing.

Gregnz
07-10-2020, 09:54 AM
Is that you couta1, 170,000 at $16.25c :).

It disappeared as quickly as it was added. I do often wonder why someone would place a large order at pre open or pre close and push the price well beyond the range that it’s been trading at. Better just to soak up what the weak hands dump during the day and pay less. I think that 170,000 @ $16.25 pushed the pre open price to over $16.

Gregnz
07-10-2020, 09:57 AM
With the failure of the US stimulus talks there may well be more buying opportunities this week.

For a long term view of ATM, I recently discovered this May 2020 blog "A2 the 2200% monster next door" (https://mattjoass.com/2020/05/17/a2-milk-the-story-of-the-monster-next-door/). Enjoy.

Also worth watching, this YouTube video about A2 milk, it’s basically similar info to that monster next door article in video form:

https://youtu.be/Guyfo_snyOw

dobby41
07-10-2020, 10:07 AM
With the failure of the US stimulus talks there may well be more buying opportunities this week.

For a long term view of ATM, I recently discovered this May 2020 blog "A2 the 2200% monster next door" (https://mattjoass.com/2020/05/17/a2-milk-the-story-of-the-monster-next-door/). Enjoy.

One bit that jumped out of that blog that I've been thinking about lately is this
"What really set a2 Milk apart is that it isn’t really a food producer at all: A2 Milk is a marketing business. All of a2 Milk’s products are produced by external suppliers that the company holds a close relationship with"
Their low capital model has done them proud but how does the model fundamentally change as they look towards production themselves?

Gregnz
07-10-2020, 10:15 AM
I see UBS are a new substantial holder of A2 on the ASX

https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20201007/pdf/44nf2z6trj7px5.pdf

couta1
07-10-2020, 10:17 AM
Is that you couta1, 170,000 at $16.25c :)......3 minutes later they gone.:confused: No but my holding size is only 1 thou odd less than that but heavily underwater. PS-Bullish kiwi open once again.

Leftfield
07-10-2020, 10:22 AM
Also worth watching, this YouTube video about A2 milk, it’s basically similar info to that monster next door article in video form:

https://youtu.be/Guyfo_snyOw

Thanks Gregnz..... an interesting watch (even if the pic of founder Howard Paterson was incorrectly shown as current CEO GB.)

Happy to have been a holder since 2012.

couta1
07-10-2020, 10:38 AM
I see UBS are a new substantial holder of A2 on the ASX

https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20201007/pdf/44nf2z6trj7px5.pdf New for the umpteenth time, these guys are notorious manipulators and game players.

Gregnz
07-10-2020, 10:48 AM
New for the umpteenth time, these guys are notorious manipulators and game players.

I suspected that. But given the price level they have bought in at, likely they will be trying to push the share price higher?
Could be a good thing to deter our Ozzie shorting foes

couta1
07-10-2020, 10:52 AM
I suspected that. But given the price level they have bought in at, likely they will be trying to push the share price higher? Yep, they will ramp the price up by upramping at some point with a new price target and bullish report, although I reckon they are on the money more than most of the others with their current target of $22.50.

Leftfield
07-10-2020, 12:40 PM
One bit that jumped out of that blog that I've been thinking about lately is this
"What really set a2 Milk apart is that it isn’t really a food producer at all: A2 Milk is a marketing business. All of a2 Milk’s products are produced by external suppliers that the company holds a close relationship with"
Their low capital model has done them proud but how does the model fundamentally change as they look towards production themselves?

Quick answer is that their low capital model changes a little.... but not fundamentally. They will retain the bulk of their cash.

In addition, in these low interest times, there may be better opportunities in ATM having some of their cash earning them increased margins and production flexibility/security versus nil interest in a bank. Also the Mataura plant has strong Chinese ownership connections that may strengthen ATM's leverage in that market.

Lastly it is not a done deal yet. ATM are quite rightly taking their time (from memory they have almost 12 months to finalise the deal,) and the final details may yet see the actual running/management of the plant 'contracted out' (say) to SML.

Waltzing
07-10-2020, 12:42 PM
Next leg down is the MID 13... must hold here.

Mr Slothbear
07-10-2020, 12:50 PM
Quick answer is that their low capital model changes a little.... but not fundamentally. They will retain the bulk of their cash.

In addition, in these low interest times, there may be better opportunities in ATM having some of their cash earning them increased margins and production flexibility/security versus nil interest in a bank. Also the Mataura plant has strong Chinese ownership connections that may strengthen ATM's leverage in that market.

Lastly it is not a done deal yet. ATM are quite rightly taking their time (from memory they have almost 12 months to finalise the deal,) and the final details may yet see the actual running/management of the plant 'contracted out' (say) to SML.


Good post LF.

I see the contracted management part with Synlait being q high possibility

Good post I concur

tomm
07-10-2020, 05:03 PM
The Reasons why we as adults need to drink A2 Milk , you may not know it.

https://www.bbc.com/reel/video/p08phq81/should-we-be-drinking-milk-

macduffy
07-10-2020, 08:49 PM
Th most obvious reason is to boost the shareprice! I hold.

;)

CCcc
07-10-2020, 09:24 PM
yes, I agree with you. A2 milk does have its strong market position in Asian market.

nztx
08-10-2020, 01:41 AM
I suspected that. But given the price level they have bought in at, likely they will be trying to push the share price higher?
Could be a good thing to deter our Ozzie shorting foes

Ouch .. does that mean a few of the shorting cousins over yonder may be in danger of losing the seats out of their grundies ? ;)

Can't be a bad thing after what they pulled off 12 months ago playing similar tricks

sb9
09-10-2020, 09:05 AM
Market Update Investor Call

https://thea2milkcompany.com/wp-content/uploads/IR-call_280920.mp3 (https://thea2milkcompany.com/wp-content/uploads/IR-call_280920.mp3)

Well worth spending a good 40min of your time listening to conf call following on from recent market update. Some pretty hard hitting questions for the management from Analysts and equally substantive response from GB and team. I particularly liked the question from the dude from Bank of America questioning recent share sales by executive team and Geoff's explanation for the same.

jimdog31
09-10-2020, 09:59 AM
Market Update Investor Call

https://thea2milkcompany.com/wp-content/uploads/IR-call_280920.mp3 (https://thea2milkcompany.com/wp-content/uploads/IR-call_280920.mp3)

Well worth spending a good 40min of your time listening to conf call following on from recent market update. Some pretty hard hitting questions for the management from Analysts and equally substantive response from GB and team. I particularly liked the question from the dude from Bank of America questioning recent share sales by executive team and Geoff's explanation for the same.

Thanks Sb9 - Im not sure if the call was comforting though! They didnt actually address the selldown, the just addressed the surprise of sep trading. Found it elusive

dobby41
09-10-2020, 10:22 AM
Found it elusive

Evasive even?

couta1
09-10-2020, 10:26 AM
Thanks Sb9 - Im not sure if the call was comforting though! They didnt actually address the selldown, the just addressed the surprise of sep trading. Found it elusive I wouldn't worry the executive team still own more shares than we could ever dream of owning.

winner69
09-10-2020, 10:32 AM
I wouldn't worry the executive team still own more shares than we could ever dream of owning.

Not really up to execs to explain why and how the market behaves in funny ways.

They tell the story about how the company is doing ...the market decides what its worth.

Only need to tell the ‘story’ in a reasonably truthful way ...without stretching the imagination and telling porkies.

Sideshow Bob
09-10-2020, 10:44 AM
Not really up to execs to explain why and how the market behaves in funny ways.

They tell the story about how the company is doing ...the market decides what its worth.

Only need to tell the ‘story’ in a reasonably truthful way ...without stretching the imagination and telling porkies.

"Reasonably truthful"...........Hmmmmmmmm.

couta1
09-10-2020, 10:56 AM
When not if the sp eventually hits $30 i don't think I'm going to give a toss about exec share sales or how a schizophrenic market behaved in between times.

Leftfield
09-10-2020, 04:25 PM
Market Update Investor Call

https://thea2milkcompany.com/wp-content/uploads/IR-call_280920.mp3 (https://thea2milkcompany.com/wp-content/uploads/IR-call_280920.mp3)

Well worth spending a good 40min of your time listening to conf call ...


Thanks Sb9 - Im not sure if the call was comforting though! They didnt actually address the selldown, the just addressed the surprise of sep trading. Found it elusive


Not really up to execs to explain why and how the market behaves in funny ways.

They tell the story about how the company is doing ...the market decides what its worth.

Only need to tell the ‘story’ in a reasonably truthful way ...without stretching the imagination and telling porkies.


When not if the sp eventually hits $30 i don't think I'm going to give a toss about exec share sales or how a schizophrenic market behaved in between times.

Unlike Jimdog, I found the Conference call helpful. The Exec team explained that the Daigou downturn was first noticed in late Sept ie after the much criticised 'exec selloff'. (Also as Couta has noted the Exec team still hold an eye watering number of shares.)

The call also revealed that sales in Mother and Baby Stores were up 77% YOY as at Sept.

So just maybe all this is about Chinese sales adjusting to a shift in distribution channels. Either way, the call revealed that ATM is 'well positioned' to cover the changes.

Anyway.... each to their own. DYOR and take responsibility for your own decisions.

jimdog31
09-10-2020, 04:29 PM
Unlike Jimdog, I found the Conference call helpful. The Exec team explained that the Daigou downturn was first noticed in late Sept ie after the much criticised 'exec selloff'. (Also as Couta has noted the Exec team still hold an eye watering number of shares.)

The call also revealed that sales in Mother and Baby Stores were up 77% YOY as at Sept.

So just maybe all this is about Chinese sales adjusting to a shift in distribution channels. Either way, the call revealed that ATM is 'well positioned' to cover the changes.

Anyway.... each to their own. DYOR and take responsibility for your own decisions.

Fair enough Left field. I didn't say it wasn't helpful , just said I didn't' find the addressing of the selldown comforting, semantics I know :D

Leftfield
09-10-2020, 05:48 PM
Fair enough Left field. I didn't say it wasn't helpful , just said I didn't' find the addressing of the selldown comforting, semantics I know :D

No prob's.....be boring if we all held the same views! ;)

Lion_graf
09-10-2020, 06:48 PM
My concern is they are still avoiding what effect on revenue the diagou in australia has had. what percentage is it down from last year? And how much of their total revenue is the diagou in Australia responsible for. Why can't they put a number on it? If they can why are they not willing to share that with us?

There was a comment in there saying we as investors need to do our own research.. or along those lines. Isn't the purpose of having shareholder questions that directly relate to its recent downturn call for them to answer these directly?

Lion_graf
09-10-2020, 06:53 PM
It sounded like their reason for a better second half depends mainly with Australia's covid control and not a lit A2 are doing themselves

Ggcc
09-10-2020, 10:45 PM
https://www.fool.com.au/2020/10/09/how-vulnerable-is-the-a2-milk-share-price-amid-the-trade-stoush/

Interesting news. Especially this “the company being included on the ‘unreliable entity list’ by the Chinese Ministry of Commerce on 19 September – which means A2 Milk could potentially get banned from trading with China in the near future”

Gregnz
09-10-2020, 10:52 PM
https://www.fool.com.au/2020/10/09/how-vulnerable-is-the-a2-milk-share-price-amid-the-trade-stoush/

Interesting news. Especially this “the company being included on the ‘unreliable entity list’ by the Chinese Ministry of Commerce on 19 September – which means A2 Milk could potentially get banned from trading with China in the near future”

That article writes as though A2 is an Australian business. What is it with Australians thinking A2 is theirs??

"With China clearly the biggest market for the dairy exporter, Australian consumer goods may be vulnerable to the ongoing trade war if China perceives Australia to be a US ally.

Gregnz
09-10-2020, 11:07 PM
https://www.fool.com.au/2020/10/09/how-vulnerable-is-the-a2-milk-share-price-amid-the-trade-stoush/

Interesting news. Especially this “the company being included on the ‘unreliable entity list’ by the Chinese Ministry of Commerce on 19 September – which means A2 Milk could potentially get banned from trading with China in the near future”

I'd love to know how fool.com.au know that A2 are included on the list when every other article written says that the Chinese government havent yet placed any companies on the list? (I guess its in their name 'Fools')

https://www.paulhastings.com/publication-items/details/?id=cd410e70-2334-6428-811c-ff00004cbded


''On September 19, 2020, China’s Ministry of Commerce finally issued the Regulations on Unreliable Entity List (the “Regulations”),[2] (https://www.paulhastings.com/publication-items/details/?id=cd410e70-2334-6428-811c-ff00004cbded#_edn2) which consist of 14 provisions that provide further detail about the administration of the List. The Chinese government has not yet placed any entities or companies on the List"

Old mate
10-10-2020, 07:23 AM
"My concern is they are still avoiding what effect on revenue the diagou in australia has had. what percentage is it down from last year? And how much of their total revenue is the diagou in Australia responsible for. Why can't they put a number on it? If they can why are they not willing to share that with us?

There was a comment in there saying we as investors need to do our own research.. or along those lines. Isn't the purpose of having shareholder questions that directly relate to its recent downturn call for them to answer these directly?"


That is a good question.
This information is been given The call also revealed that sales in Mother and Baby Stores were up 77% YOY as at Sept.

But no figures on the diagou?

Leftfield
10-10-2020, 08:06 AM
...........This information is been given The call also revealed that sales in Mother and Baby Stores were up 77% YOY as at Sept.

But no figures on the diagou?

Have you listened to the Conference Call?

couta1
10-10-2020, 08:12 AM
More nonsense from the Fool, anything they write is worth about as much as used toilet paper.

winner69
10-10-2020, 12:13 PM
At least the headline didn't read Ex multi-millionaire A2 Milk boss skips quarantine
https://www.news.com.au/world/coronavirus/australia/coronavirus-australia-live-victoria-qld-nsw-covid19-updates/live-coverage/395315d5e07674b990e0c1c4856daf6e

Gregnz
12-10-2020, 12:51 PM
Thoughts, are we at the bottom yet?

I’m in no way technically gifted or have the slightest clue how to read a trading chart, but hoping to increase my A2 holding, as a long term investment.

I’ve been waiting unsure whether the Asx was going to push the price down further, but reading the posts on HotCopper (the meaningful posts) , some seem to think the bottom might be in.

Anyone care to share their thoughts?

Biscuit
12-10-2020, 01:06 PM
Thoughts, are we at the bottom yet?

I’m in no way technically gifted or have the slightest clue how to read a trading chart, but hoping to increase my A2 holding, as a long term investment.

I’ve been waiting unsure whether the Asx was going to push the price down further, but reading the posts on HotCopper (the meaningful posts) , some seem to think the bottom might be in.

Anyone care to share their thoughts?


I've been buying. Take that either way as you please. I like to catch a falling knife (not particularly risk adverse) - I have a couple of scars to prove it, but mostly it pays off in the long term.

Snow Leopard
12-10-2020, 01:07 PM
Yes, we have achieved peak bottom, and while the SP rises we continue to be past the worst of the bottom.

However because a decent TA statement is always one that edges it bets about the future:

Should the SP subsequently go down again below the NZ$15 mark we will be able to declare that it was in fact a false or cheeky bottom.

But my money is on it being a rosy bottom.

couta1
12-10-2020, 01:15 PM
Thoughts, are we at the bottom yet?

I’m in no way technically gifted or have the slightest clue how to read a trading chart, but hoping to increase my A2 holding, as a long term investment.

I’ve been waiting unsure whether the Asx was going to push the price down further, but reading the posts on HotCopper (the meaningful posts) , some seem to think the bottom might be in.

Anyone care to share their thoughts? You may have noticed that the daily trading range has been narrowing over the last few trading days, always a good sign that volatility is reducing and the bottom is in.

couta1
12-10-2020, 01:23 PM
I've been buying. Take that either way as you please. I like to catch a falling knife (not particularly risk adverse) - I have a couple of scars to prove it, but mostly it pays off in the long term. Why worry about a few fingers, since Sept i think I've lost both arms and legs plus a couple of organs to boot.

Waltzing
12-10-2020, 01:30 PM
ATM TA a buy on the chart.

HLG was a huge buy at 4. and not a sell at 6 this time.

couta1
12-10-2020, 01:33 PM
ATM TA a buy on the chart.

HLG was a huge buy at 4. and not a sell at 6 this time. ATM will have its day again and will run hard North rewarding the gritty and patient.

Waltzing
12-10-2020, 01:49 PM
TA on the chart looking perfect buy here abouts.

HLG may also have a new day with a triple top moving north. Chart says sell but balance sheet says BUY as you have all rightly pointed out.

Gregnz
12-10-2020, 02:05 PM
Great, thanks. May top up with some more.

Blue Skies
12-10-2020, 03:06 PM
May be worth some consideration, the lowest point last year wasn't reached for a whole month after now.
Is there any new info around to drive the price north yet?

couta1
12-10-2020, 03:16 PM
May be worth some consideration, the lowest point last year wasn't reached for a whole month after now.
Is there any new info around to drive the price north yet? You don't necessarily need news to drive the price north, just the manipulators and game players to back off will do it.

sb9
12-10-2020, 03:18 PM
May be worth some consideration, the lowest point last year wasn't reached for a whole month after now.
Is there any new info around to drive the price north yet?

It'll be totally different in a month from now with Singles day less than month away, which will be next big catalyst.

Waltzing
12-10-2020, 05:25 PM
glass half full / empty

the chart says BUY. no bad news but it depends on how many people see the dots clearly. AUssi dont seem to see the dots on this one clearly but it look a screaming BUY on the chart. Bad news would drop it to 13 but you dont have any yet.

i learnt a during the GFC you can come up with any number of good reasons to sell and they all turned out to be nothing.

People should not sell if no rockets lifting off.

Are there any rockets lifting off on this one? Drop in sales? Bad debts? Drop in gross margin? Mums not buying the product?

Well then the chart says BUY.

kicking ourselves for finding to many reasons to sell.

Is the board hopeless? Sales declining Q on Q?

what wrong with this stock anyone?

DISC: im not even going there it makes me feel ... not well ... all those profits... well done to those that made the big ones here.

longy
12-10-2020, 05:54 PM
You don't necessarily need news to drive the price north, just the manipulators and game players to back off will do it.

It is worth noting that Gross Short sale of A2m on ASX was just 383,714 on the 8th Oct, but on the 28th Sep, it was 4.6 mil plus.

Master98
12-10-2020, 05:54 PM
bought at 15.06, just feel price is right for long term hold.

couta1
12-10-2020, 07:54 PM
bought at 15.06, just feel price is right for long term hold. I'm sure you are going to do very well going forward, looking at most other shares on the NZX that are mainly trading at lofty prices, i reckon this one is a steal currently.

Master98
12-10-2020, 08:20 PM
I'm sure you are going to do very well going forward, looking at most other shares on the NZX that are mainly trading at lofty prices, i reckon this one is a steal currently.
Thanks couta, we each other share points of view for years, I with you for this one, hope you doing well. Cheers

tomm
14-10-2020, 04:42 PM
Some one put a block of 80k of shares @15.10 AUD wanted to sell on ASX .... ,obvious shorters manipulating the SP... lol
Got blowed by ASX... nice!
LOL.... and another 80K came up for sale ... hoping it will be swallowed by the end of ASX today.

couta1
14-10-2020, 07:00 PM
Some one put a block of 80k of shares @15.10 AUD wanted to sell on ASX .... ,obvious shorters manipulating the SP... lol
Got blowed by ASX... nice!
LOL.... and another 80K came up for sale ... hoping it will be swallowed by the end of ASX today. Profit takers with plenty of volume not shorters i reckon, they managed to drag the price down.

carrom74
14-10-2020, 07:29 PM
Profit takers with plenty of volume not shorters i reckon, they managed to drag the price down.

Was it a bull trap? -I just hope not Couta

Leftfield
15-10-2020, 08:45 AM
From Fonterra today.....

"Fonterra Co-operative Group Limited today increased the mid-point of its forecast Farmgate Milk Price range to $6.80 per kgMS, up from $6.40 per kgMS, while retaining its current +/-50c per kgMS range. Fonterra CEO Miles Hurrell says the stronger 2020/21 milk price forecast is largely being driven by improved demand in China. "

Getty
15-10-2020, 12:34 PM
which cow has dumped its lunch?

Taking price down from @$16.30 to $15.85.

Must have seen the bull coming..

Gregnz
15-10-2020, 12:37 PM
which cow has dumped its lunch?

Taking price down from @$16.30 to $15.85.

Must have seen the bull coming..


Loving it, I'm stocking up big time.

Getty
15-10-2020, 12:39 PM
I'm calling the stock agent, time for a bit of culling of weak stock..

dreamcatcher
15-10-2020, 01:39 PM
NZ/Aus currency playing with SP.................

winner69
15-10-2020, 08:16 PM
Default
Our Jayne to head the new Virgin

https://www.smh.com.au/business/comp...15-p565eq.html

Shame the A2 Board didn’t agree with her way forward and got rid of her .....A2 never been the same again and having a caretaker CEO was a big mistake and backward step.

couta1
15-10-2020, 08:46 PM
Default
Our Jayne to head the new Virgin

https://www.smh.com.au/business/comp...15-p565eq.html

Shame the A2 Board didn’t agree with her way forward and got rid of her .....A2 never been the same again and having a caretaker CEO was a big mistake and backward step. Nice joke there winner, the Licker was the worst thing that happened to A2.

Leftfield
16-10-2020, 11:40 AM
Tail winds like this got to be good for ATM in the longer term.

DJ Southeast Asian 'Milk Deficit' to Drive Dairy Export Boom -- Market Talk

2305 GMT - Southeast Asia's "milk deficit" will grow to 19 billion liters in a decade
from an estimated 12.9 billion liters this year, says Rabobank, predicting it will become
a major pull factor for dairy exporters looking for strategic growth. The forecast
(covering Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam) is
particularly relevant for New Zealand, where dairy companies are more trade-exposed than
peers and have the highest market-concentration risk, stemming from reliance on China, it
says. Dairy companies will also be pushed toward Southeast Asia by geopolitical tensions
and moderation of growth in Chinese demand, Rabobank says. (stephen.wright@wsj.com)

Source - Dow Jones Newswires

Getty
16-10-2020, 11:44 AM
Nice joke there winner, the Licker was the worst thing that happened to A2.

Hard woman of virtue to be in charge of the Virgins.
Lick that!

Cyclical
16-10-2020, 12:22 PM
Hard woman of virtue to be in charge of the Virgins.
Lick that!

Bad taste. Or was it?

Waltzing
16-10-2020, 02:25 PM
its trying to build a bit of a base here... must hold... if it falls off a cliff to 13 we will have to buy...

winner69
17-10-2020, 08:53 AM
Seems to be unanimous on here that Jayne was completely useless and a waste of space.

Coming up to a year since she 'departed ways' with the Board

That's about the time frame for what the real damage management has caused in a company to become apparent. I would hazard a guess that's happening here and the damage that Jayne caused was pretty major and will take some time to fix properly

Bringing an old guy in from the back paddock as a temporary measure will only have exacerbated the situation.

I fear it will take may years before A2 returns to it's glory days. especially if the underwear ex booze guy doesn't get up to speed very quickly

Leftfield
17-10-2020, 09:08 AM
Hi Winner,

You may well be right about ATM. You may well be wrong. Interesting times ahead. The 7% shorts certainly agree with you.

In the meantime I noticed your sky high optimism for all things OCA (as below) and wonder what happens when you start applying such optimism to ATM's 2021 SP???


Beagle me old mate and true believer in Ben Graham

If you really believed Ben's formula then OCA Intrinsic value is $5.15

Based on current EPS of 7 cents (and that's not the covid look through of 8 cents / EPS growth of a miserable 10% taken from the numbers you posted from Forbar report with me extrapolating out for 7 years with modest growth from 2023 / and used SUM bond rate 1.7% as current bond yields (jeez if I used govt rate the number is so high its ridiculous) and using Ben's revised formula V = EPS x (8.5+2g) x 4.4 / Y (Bond rate)

If I used 0.55% as 10 Year Govt Bond rate the Intrinsic Value is over $16
.

Sssooo Winner using your workings ATM's potential must be sky high!!??

winner69
17-10-2020, 09:32 AM
Hi Winner,

You may well be right about ATM. You may well be wrong. Interesting times ahead. The 7% shorts certainly agree with you.

In the meantime I noticed your sky high optimism for all things OCA (as below) and wonder what happens when you start applying such optimism to ATM's 2021 SP???



Sssooo Winner using your workings ATM's potential must be sky high!!??

Just for year leftie.

I used marketscreener eps forecasts extrapolated out to 7 years using a reasonable growth decay rate which gave g(rowth) of 14% pa and used 1% as Bond rate which is what Fonterra bonds are roughly going for me (reflects industry risk)

Ben Graham's Intrinsic Value of ATM is $83.51

Ben was probably right when he said his formula was crap eh








Funny enough if you forget the part that reflects low bond rates its $18.98

Leftfield
17-10-2020, 09:35 AM
Fabulous Winner, thank you....... made my day.

winner69
17-10-2020, 09:39 AM
Fabulous Winner, thank you....... made my day.

But Ben wrote in the footnotes of The Intelligent Investor

The first is a footnote that says that this formula does not give any real intrinsic value for a stock.

and

A warning — clearly labeled as such — then says that the formula is only intended as an illustration, and that such projections of growth rates are never reliable.


I think the market has finally realised that Jayne really stuffed A2 up and its a hard job to fix

Leftfield
17-10-2020, 09:48 AM
Don't worry Winner....... I'm not buying or selling ATM. More than happy with my current holding. It's all about DYOR.

Here's an interesting article out of Aus about the decline of the Daigou channels. (https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-10-17/has-daigou-disappeared-in-australia-during-coronavirus-pandemic/12761376) I always viewed daigou distribution as 'opportunistic' and look forward to seeing how ATM's transition to on-line and increased Mother & Baby stores off-sets this.

Baa_Baa
17-10-2020, 09:51 AM
“I think the market has finally realised that Jayne really stuffed A2 up and its a hard job to fix“

I think you’re enjoying winding up the faithful, like the current SP has nothing to do with ‘honest Geoff’ telling us that the Daigou channel is stuffed from COVID and pantry destocking and shipping issues and buying into capital intensive manufacturing and no clue what to do with shareholders cash mountain... stuff like that. It’s all Jayne’s fault eh?

winner69
17-10-2020, 09:53 AM
I hate to admit it but maybe Beagle foresaw the damage that Jayne caused with his controversial and damning post a few weeks ago about the declining growth rates at A2

It was in the numbers all along

winner69
17-10-2020, 09:59 AM
Don't worry Winner....... I'm not buying or selling ATM. More than happy with my current holding. It's all about DYOR.

Here's an interesting article out of Aus about the decline of the Daigou channels. (https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-10-17/has-daigou-disappeared-in-australia-during-coronavirus-pandemic/12761376) I always viewed daigou distribution as 'opportunistic' and look forward to seeing how ATM's transition to on-line and increased Mother & Baby stores off-sets this.

Thanks leftie - interesting article

Getty
17-10-2020, 10:06 AM
Just for year leftie.

I used marketscreener eps forecasts extrapolated out to 7 years using a reasonable growth decay rate which gave g(rowth) of 14% pa and used 1% as Bond rate which is what Fonterra bonds are roughly going for me (reflects industry risk)

Ben Graham's Intrinsic Value of ATM is $83.51

Ben was probably right when he said his formula was crap eh








Funny enough if you forget the part that reflects low bond rates its $18.98

No No, that formula is 100% correct!
I swear buy it!

couta1
17-10-2020, 10:09 AM
The Daigou channels will now be up and running again and A2 is working hard at developing its direct sales channels so the current sp is just an irrational market response due to misplaced uncertainty.

Getty
17-10-2020, 10:22 AM
What Mcdongle posted #3074 on SML thread, may explain Fridays pullback on ATM.
Obviously ATM has an exposure to SML via its shareholding.

couta1
17-10-2020, 10:29 AM
What Mcdongle posted #3074 on SML thread, may explain Fridays pullback on ATM.
Obviously ATM has an exposure to SML via its shareholding. More likely just profit takers and manipulators flexing their Friday muscles, unfortunately A2 is one if the most manipulated stocks on the ASX, you can observe this daily when the price starts to run on the NZX it quickly gets trashed once the ASX opens or if it does have a run there it is squashed in short order, with the current uncertainty traction is a real problem.

Getty
17-10-2020, 10:33 AM
Would you say UBS is the main game player?

couta1
17-10-2020, 10:36 AM
Would you say UBS is the main game player? Yep along with Citi and all the other flip flop broking companies which change their price targets on a regular basis to suit their own needs ie whether they want to accumulate or sell.

winner69
17-10-2020, 01:22 PM
Is Chairman David Hearn good value

Just seems a bit odd having a domiciled UK Chairman for a company run out of Australia with a NZ HQ

carrom74
19-10-2020, 05:07 PM
A well balanced report
https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20201016-why-china-developed-a-fresh-taste-for-milk

MauroNZ
19-10-2020, 05:52 PM
A well balanced report
https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20201016-why-china-developed-a-fresh-taste-for-milk

It says "page unavailable".

Gregnz
19-10-2020, 06:17 PM
It says "page unavailable".

Working fine for me. Perhaps check your internet connection or try a different browser?

bull....
20-10-2020, 08:21 AM
if a2 Milk were to have a solid recovery in FY21, but of a level similar to last year, where the second half was up 14% on the first half not the 24% that management were guiding for then full year revenues will be down over 20% on 2020

https://www.goodreturns.co.nz/article/976517641/a2-milk-growth-stocks-and-downgrades-don-t-mix-well.html

couta1
20-10-2020, 08:31 AM
if a2 Milk were to have a solid recovery in FY21, but of a level similar to last year, where the second half was up 14% on the first half not the 24% that management were guiding for then full year revenues will be down over 20% on 2020

https://www.goodreturns.co.nz/article/976517641/a2-milk-growth-stocks-and-downgrades-don-t-mix-well.html
Not a bad article yet for those of us that believe that the current blip is of a temporal nature then it means little long term.

Lion_graf
20-10-2020, 01:22 PM
The world's biggest infant formula maker Nestle is launching its own brand of A2-only baby formula in Australia and New Zealand as it looks to muscle in on the dominant position of high-growth stock, The a2 Milk Company.

While many dairy makers have held back from selling products that only have the A2 beta-casein protein, perhaps sceptical about its benefits and cautious of undermining their regular milk sales, a2 Milk has proved to be a huge growth story. Revenue has surged from $NZ62.5 million in 2011-12 to $NZ923 million in 2017-18. The company's market capitalisation has swelled to more than $7 billion.

Now the Swiss giant wants in on the space and is launching its NAN A2 brand in Coles and online in Australia this week. It has plans to sell its S-26 Atwo brand in New Zealand in November at select Countdown stores and online.

A2 milk contains all of the proteins found in standard cows' milk except for the A1 beta-casein protein. Proponents of A2-only milk say the A1 protein causes indigestion.


This major push by Nestle comes on the back of its launch into China in February with its Illuma Atwo formula brand. The NZ and China formula products are Wyeth Nutrition brands, while the Australian product is labelled Nestle Nutrition.

couta1
20-10-2020, 01:34 PM
Yet to date the launch of other competitor products has had NO affect on A2's traction, if fact it is more likely increasing its potential by raising product awareness in a market still in its infancy.

Gregnz
20-10-2020, 02:28 PM
The world's biggest infant formula maker Nestle is launching its own brand of A2-only baby formula in Australia and New Zealand as it looks to muscle in on the dominant position of high-growth stock, The a2 Milk Company.

While many dairy makers have held back from selling products that only have the A2 beta-casein protein, perhaps sceptical about its benefits and cautious of undermining their regular milk sales, a2 Milk has proved to be a huge growth story. Revenue has surged from $NZ62.5 million in 2011-12 to $NZ923 million in 2017-18. The company's market capitalisation has swelled to more than $7 billion.

Now the Swiss giant wants in on the space and is launching its NAN A2 brand in Coles and online in Australia this week. It has plans to sell its S-26 Atwo brand in New Zealand in November at select Countdown stores and online.

A2 milk contains all of the proteins found in standard cows' milk except for the A1 beta-casein protein. Proponents of A2-only milk say the A1 protein causes indigestion.


This major push by Nestle comes on the back of its launch into China in February with its Illuma Atwo formula brand. The NZ and China formula products are Wyeth Nutrition brands, while the Australian product is labelled Nestle Nutrition.

Lol, you realise that article is dated 15th October 2018? We are now in 2020.

https://edairynews.com/en/nestle-launches-a2-baby-formula-challenging-the-a2-milk-company-61881/

xp04
20-10-2020, 02:29 PM
The world's biggest infant formula maker Nestle is launching its own brand of A2-only baby formula in Australia and New Zealand as it looks to muscle in on the dominant position of high-growth stock, The a2 Milk Company.

While many dairy makers have held back from selling products that only have the A2 beta-casein protein, perhaps sceptical about its benefits and cautious of undermining their regular milk sales, a2 Milk has proved to be a huge growth story. Revenue has surged from $NZ62.5 million in 2011-12 to $NZ923 million in 2017-18. The company's market capitalisation has swelled to more than $7 billion.

Now the Swiss giant wants in on the space and is launching its NAN A2 brand in Coles and online in Australia this week. It has plans to sell its S-26 Atwo brand in New Zealand in November at select Countdown stores and online.

A2 milk contains all of the proteins found in standard cows' milk except for the A1 beta-casein protein. Proponents of A2-only milk say the A1 protein causes indigestion.


This major push by Nestle comes on the back of its launch into China in February with its Illuma Atwo formula brand. The NZ and China formula products are Wyeth Nutrition brands, while the Australian product is labelled Nestle Nutrition.

Do you have any recent news? This one looks 2 years old https://www.farmonline.com.au/story/6228788/nestle-launches-a2-baby-formula/
xp

Leftfield
20-10-2020, 03:28 PM
Do you have any recent news? This one looks 2 years old https://www.farmonline.com.au/story/6228788/nestle-launches-a2-baby-formula/
xp

Indeed this is v old news. The reality is that Nestle's A2 has struggled versus ATM's A2 in most markets, particularly in China.

couta1
20-10-2020, 03:33 PM
Indeed this is v old news. The reality is that Nestle's A2 has struggled versus ATM's A2 in most markets, particularly in China. The only new article im expecting from Nestlé is a takeover offer at some point. Lol

Leftfield
20-10-2020, 04:00 PM
The only new article im expecting from Nestlé is a takeover offer at some point. Lol

Nice dream..... ;)

silu
20-10-2020, 04:30 PM
Nice dream..... ;)

Hmm I can't be the only one who thinks that a takeover of ATM is such a matter of time (years in this case)? It would be unfortunate but I think it's going to happen at some stage.

Ggcc
20-10-2020, 04:38 PM
Hmm I can't be the only one who thinks that a takeover of ATM is such a matter of time (years in this case)? It would be unfortunate but I think it's going to happen at some stage.

If there ever was a time COVID time would be the best time I feel.

jimdog31
20-10-2020, 05:33 PM
If there ever was a time COVID time would be the best time I feel.

Depends whether nestle thinks its currently undervalued?

carrom74
20-10-2020, 05:38 PM
Nice dream..... ;)
Actually it’s not that hard for nestle with a pile of cash in bank and wondering what to do...

https://www.google.co.nz/amp/s/www.forbes.com/sites/sergeiklebnikov/2019/10/17/heres-how-nestl-could-return-20-billion-to-shareholders/amp/

couta1
20-10-2020, 06:39 PM
Actually it’s not that hard for nestle with a pile of cash in bank and wondering what to do...

https://www.google.co.nz/amp/s/www.forbes.com/sites/sergeiklebnikov/2019/10/17/heres-how-nestl-could-return-20-billion-to-shareholders/amp/ It would need at least 15 of that 20 billion to secure this company.

Sideshow Bob
20-10-2020, 08:50 PM
The only new article im expecting from Nestlé is a takeover offer at some point. Lol

Over $500 Billion NZD market cap. Could take over with barely a hiccup.....

Unfortunately not a fake milk/fake meat company - would be gone in the blink of an eye.

longy
21-10-2020, 02:10 PM
Shorters are back once more folks.

couta1
21-10-2020, 02:19 PM
Shorters are back once more folks. Another round of predictable UBS games.

Master98
21-10-2020, 02:27 PM
[QUOTE=longy;851532]Shorters are back once more folks.[/QUOTE
maybe this?

"Why this top investment bank has Sell ratings on a2 Milk and Bubs"

https://www.ig.com/en-ch/news-and-trade-ideas/why-this-top-investment-bank-has-sell-ratings-on-a2-milk-and-bub-201020

couta1
21-10-2020, 02:37 PM
[QUOTE=longy;851532]Shorters are back once more folks.[/QUOTE
maybe this?

"Why this top investment bank has Sell ratings on a2 Milk and Bubs"

https://www.ig.com/en-ch/news-and-trade-ideas/why-this-top-investment-bank-has-sell-ratings-on-a2-milk-and-bub-201020 Code for sell to us, we are accumulating.

Leftfield
21-10-2020, 03:18 PM
Shorters are back once more folks.

I expect volatility to continue until the USA election results are known.

couta1
21-10-2020, 03:26 PM
I expect volatility to continue until the USA election results are known. I expect volatility as long as the company is listed unless the manipulators are crimped by law, although when it eventually becomes a reliable divvy payer that will help heaps.

Leftfield
21-10-2020, 03:40 PM
I expect volatility as long as the company is listed unless the manipulators are crimped by law, although when it eventually becomes a reliable divvy payer that will help heaps.

Yeah true.... it comes with the territory. ;)

bull....
22-10-2020, 12:51 PM
must be time to head to the lows again

dompf
22-10-2020, 01:33 PM
Shorts building on this one could be a good sign.

https://www.shortman.com.au/stock?q=A2m

Gregnz
22-10-2020, 01:39 PM
Massive volume going thru on the ASX today also a good sign of a upwards trend. $22 million traded in the first hour since open

couta1
22-10-2020, 02:04 PM
must be time to head to the lows again Such a deep meaningful Trolling post

couta1
22-10-2020, 02:10 PM
Massive volume going thru on the ASX today also a good sign of a upwards trend. $22 million traded in the first hour since open Thats the thing to remember about this stock, buy volume can and has many times in the past quickly overpowered the sellers.

Gregnz
22-10-2020, 02:11 PM
Such a deep meaningful Trolling post

Glad others think the same. Everytime I see bull... I ignore. I think most do

couta1
22-10-2020, 02:30 PM
Glad others think the same. Everytime I see bull... I ignore. I think most do Although he has been a huge buy signal in the past. Lol

MauroNZ
23-10-2020, 11:30 AM
Maybe someone of the ATM experts would have a comment on this article?

https://www.goodreturns.co.nz/article/976517641/a2-milk-growth-stocks-and-downgrades-don-t-mix-well.html

couta1
23-10-2020, 11:33 AM
Maybe someone of the ATM experts would have a comment on this article?

https://www.goodreturns.co.nz/article/976517641/a2-milk-growth-stocks-and-downgrades-don-t-mix-well.html The key sentence in that article is the last one where it says this may prove to be a one off bump, I'd add to that in that I believe it absolutely is a one off bump so onward and upward in due course.

Biscuit
23-10-2020, 12:28 PM
The key sentence in that article is the last one where it says this may prove to be a one off bump, I'd add to that in that I believe it absolutely is a one off bump so onward and upward in due course.

I would think the key thing in that article is whether or not buying a milk factory is supportive of their existing growth strategy or whether it indicates an unfortunate and potentially costly departure and structural change. As the article states, not every company has proven to be adept at buying bits to add on. My money is on it being supportive.

HKG2301
23-10-2020, 12:58 PM
As someone mentioned recently here, the SP takes a big hit at the ASX open every day - today the same. Expect it's the Ozzie shorters trying their hand and so far they've failed. SP seems to have found a solid base at the $15.25 level. If it bounces from here again with any conviction, I'm thinking we might see quite a few of the the short positions folding in a rush to cover. Anyone got the short numbers in recent days...?

tomm
23-10-2020, 02:08 PM
https://news.yahoo.com/germany-readies-coronavirus-vaccine-end-220234277.html
Germany readies for coronavirus vaccine before end of year.

BERLIN (Reuters) - Germany is making preparations to start vaccinations against the coronavirus before the end of the year, Bild daily reported on Friday.
The health ministry plans to create 60 special vaccination centres to ensure the vaccines can be stored at the proper temperature and has asked the country's 16 federal states to provide addresses for them by Nov. 10.

longy
23-10-2020, 02:41 PM
Yesterday was just 337,594... the day before yesterday was 1 mil plus. I think you may on point here.

HKG2301
23-10-2020, 10:37 PM
Yesterday was just 337,594... the day before yesterday was 1 mil plus. I think you may on point here.

What's your source for those ASX short numbers? I'm getting conflicting info...

Lion_graf
24-10-2020, 08:44 AM
Over half a mill worth of shares (39000) from only 3 sellers. sitting there at $15.500 no where near enough bidders til you get back down towards 15.25 or 15.00. Slowly but surely more and more sellers have been coming recent weeks...when will it stop lol

couta1
24-10-2020, 10:01 AM
Over half a mill worth of shares (39000) from only 3 sellers. sitting there at $15.500 no where near enough bidders til you get back down towards 15.25 or 15.00. Slowly but surely more and more sellers have been coming recent weeks...when will it stop lol Its just the left over shares from yesterday's closing auction, they will disappear before the open on tues morn, price will depend on ASX action on Monday with the NZX being closed for the day.

BlackPeter
24-10-2020, 11:11 AM
https://news.yahoo.com/germany-readies-coronavirus-vaccine-end-220234277.html
Germany readies for coronavirus vaccine before end of year.

BERLIN (Reuters) - Germany is making preparations to start vaccinations against the coronavirus before the end of the year, Bild daily reported on Friday.
The health ministry plans to create 60 special vaccination centres to ensure the vaccines can be stored at the proper temperature and has asked the country's 16 federal states to provide addresses for them by Nov. 10.

Not so sure about the source you are providing. Bild is the German equivalent of the sun in the UK or Fox news in the US. Rubbish at best, pure fantasy and lies at worst. Bild has been frequently caught in making stories up based on half truths, and sometimes on pure fantasy. They are very rarely the first to report something which is correct. While it might be correct that the German government is preparing for the logistical exercise of rolling out the vaccine (I hope they do ...), looking at the start of the vaccination campaign I recommend to better wait until you find some more reputable source for this story.

BTW - are you sure you published that on the right thread anyway?

Gregnz
24-10-2020, 11:15 AM
Over half a mill worth of shares (39000) from only 3 sellers. sitting there at $15.500 no where near enough bidders til you get back down towards 15.25 or 15.00. Slowly but surely more and more sellers have been coming recent weeks...when will it stop lol

I suspect someone is still accumulating, I've been keeping a close eye on depth, and those large sellers disappear as quickly as they appeared. Any time the share price starts to rise, they suddenly appear with thousands of shares at $15.50. The big players are still massively manipulating the share price, like they do every year.

dreamcatcher
24-10-2020, 11:55 AM
I suspect someone is still accumulating, I've been keeping a close eye on depth, and those large sellers disappear as quickly as they appeared. Any time the share price starts to rise, they suddenly appear with thousands of shares at $15.50. The big players are still massively manipulating the share price, like they do every year.

Something for you sir. UBS one of the biggest manipulators of a2, 3 weeks ago updated their TP just 20c below previous @NZ$22.50 (prior NZ$22.70) .....

Interesting ? and may answer questions about who's accumulating

longy
24-10-2020, 07:08 PM
Try this one.

https://www.asx.com.au/data/shortsell.txt

longy
24-10-2020, 07:09 PM
HKG2301. What is your source?

https://www.asx.com.au/data/shortsell.txt

HKG2301
24-10-2020, 10:54 PM
HKG2301. What is your source?

I'm still trying to figure out which source/format is most useful...

www.61financial.com.au/en-au/prices/hot/A2M/shorting (https://www.61financial.com.au/en-au/prices/hot/A2M/shorting)
https://asic.gov.au/Reports/Daily/2020/10/RR20201019-001-SSDailyAggShortPos.pdf

Leftfield
27-10-2020, 03:39 PM
Looks like new A2 products for China..... liquid or powder milk? (https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/media-updates.4489996/page-5944?post_id=48401095)

Blue Skies
27-10-2020, 05:16 PM
SP looking a bit anaemic, thought with Victoria finally coming out of lockdown it would have changed sentiment today, but perhaps the extended period of the lockdown, 3.5 months might have significant impact.

couta1
27-10-2020, 05:41 PM
SP looking a bit anaemic, thought with Victoria finally coming out of lockdown it would have changed sentiment today, but perhaps the extended period of the lockdown, 3.5 months might have significant impact. You shouldn't be surprised, take a glance at the whole market which has taken the US lead.

Waltzing
27-10-2020, 10:35 PM
if it drops to 13 the chart is broken. surely a big buy there.

dreamcatcher
27-10-2020, 10:55 PM
if it drops to 13 the chart is broken. surely a big buy there.

You expecting SP to drop to $13 with 11/11 two weeks away ............ followed four weeks later by 12/12

Gunner
27-10-2020, 10:56 PM
if it drops to 13 the chart is broken. surely a big buy there.

At $13 it would be looking very attractive. A p/e ratio of 24 on a still growing business. No debt and $800 million plus cash in the bank.

Waltzing
28-10-2020, 09:10 AM
Yes Gunner... might be take a deep breath and buy indeed. not sure it will happen though bit of a long shot.

not expecting just the charts next big support level is 13.

i expected 15 to hold.

couta1
28-10-2020, 09:31 AM
Yes Gunner... might be take a deep breath and buy indeed. not sure it will happen though bit of a long shot.

not expecting just the charts next big support level is 13.

i expected 15 to hold. Long shot, what nonsense, one of the very best stocks on the NZX with a very bright future indeed.

BigBob
28-10-2020, 09:40 AM
Long shot, what nonsense, one of the very best stocks on the NZX with a very bright future indeed.

I think he means that $13 is a long shot...

couta1
28-10-2020, 09:41 AM
I think he means that $13 is a long shot... Yeah I wondered that after I posted but his posts are very cryptic oftentimes.

BigBob
28-10-2020, 09:43 AM
Yeah I wondered that after I posted but his posts are very cryptic oftentimes.

Tru dat...!

Waltzing
28-10-2020, 10:47 AM
yes my appol. 13 a long shot will take some poor results. or the party in charge will move farther to add restrictions to sectors of its markets on specific sectors of its economy and countries. We only need to look at the situation facing australia at the moment to see what can happen if the party in charge of china changes its mind.

Justin
28-10-2020, 03:52 PM
yes my appol. 13 a long shot will take some poor results. or the party in charge will move farther to add restrictions to sectors of its markets on specific sectors of its economy and countries. We only need to look at the situation facing australia at the moment to see what can happen if the party in charge of china changes its mind.

I see most of dairy supplier for a2 milk controlled by Chinese owned companies, and Chinese companies own big chunk of NZ dairy industry, therefore I don’t think they will do something to jeopardize the NZ dairy export to China.

Waltzing
28-10-2020, 09:34 PM
well the party just made it difficult for its self to get some high quality AUS minerals. You just dont know what the party will do. It may be only temporary measures to achieve political goals. The sort of thing that depresses a share price long enough to buy in one hopes. It just a risk, small but one of many... a lot of VOL to come till 2Q 2021 across the globe.

Lion_graf
29-10-2020, 10:24 AM
Sub 15 this morning after US market is down.

Gregnz
29-10-2020, 10:30 AM
Sub 15 this morning after US market is down.

Yep, made it for about 30 seconds. Will be more interesting to see what affect the ASX has when it opens

HITMAN
29-10-2020, 01:10 PM
I sold out of ATM a few months ago at $18.09. Back in today.

Biscuit
29-10-2020, 01:31 PM
I sold out of ATM a few months ago at $18.09. Back in today.

Well done. I'm bleeding from catching the falling knife so far. Time to put out the hand again perhaps?

couta1
29-10-2020, 01:36 PM
Well done. I'm bleeding from catching the falling knife so far. Time to put out the hand again perhaps? Haha at least you've got a hand to put out, I'm currently missing all 4 limbs and a few organs to boot.

Biscuit
29-10-2020, 01:59 PM
Haha at least you've got a hand to put out, I'm currently missing all 4 limbs and a few organs to boot.

Nasty, maybe we should wait for it to turn?

Justin
29-10-2020, 02:04 PM
I see a2 sp will bounce up after 11.11 since 2017, hope this year will be same.

Biscuit
29-10-2020, 02:09 PM
I see a2 sp will bounce up after 11.11 since 2017, hope this year will be same.


Maybe, but perhaps read "A random Walk Down Wall Street"

Justin
29-10-2020, 02:14 PM
I see demand still there, and Chinese parents can buy from taobao either chinese label or English label instead of daigou

Biscuit
29-10-2020, 02:28 PM
I see demand still there, and Chinese parents can buy from taobao either chinese label or English label instead of daigou

Yes, they are going to continue to grow and the share price will go back up, (IMHO)

dreamcatcher
29-10-2020, 02:37 PM
Believe Chinese mothers still wanted a2 IF products from daigou but delivery became erratic because of lock down

2020 Annual Meeting just a week after 11/11 finishes.............................18th Nov

Justin
29-10-2020, 02:43 PM
I believe they must store heaps of english label stock from its bonded warehouse in china to deal with 11.11

couta1
29-10-2020, 02:50 PM
Nasty, maybe we should wait for it to turn? I've been all in for a while now so waiting for it to turn is all you can do, pretty confident a year from now and holders will laugh about the current period in a good way.

dreamcatcher
29-10-2020, 03:13 PM
Haha at least you've got a hand to put out, I'm currently missing all 4 limbs and a few organs to boot.

But one thing I have learnt with a2 is the QUICK HEALING properties for lost fingers and limbs and believe you will be fine.......

Gregnz
29-10-2020, 03:36 PM
The one thing that blows my mind, who on earth is selling at these levels? I've always considered days following a significant drop in the USA as buying days, definitely not selling days. Must have very weak hands to want to sell a stock like A2 on a day like today when there seems to be plenty of evidence of more upside than downside. So close to 11/11 and the AGM on the 18th

Justin
29-10-2020, 04:36 PM
The share price has reached someone’s stop loss point

couta1
29-10-2020, 04:57 PM
The one thing that blows my mind, who on earth is selling at these levels? I've always considered days following a significant drop in the USA as buying days, definitely not selling days. Must have very weak hands to want to sell a stock like A2 on a day like today when there seems to be plenty of evidence of more upside than downside. So close to 11/11 and the AGM on the 18th Crazy stuff yet fear and panic know no logic or reason, I'm sure we have all been in that place at some point in the past.

Muppett
29-10-2020, 04:59 PM
The one thing that blows my mind, who on earth is selling at these levels? I've always considered days following a significant drop in the USA as buying days, definitely not selling days. Must have very weak hands to want to sell a stock like A2 on a day like today when there seems to be plenty of evidence of more upside than downside. So close to 11/11 and the AGM on the 18th

Why is there PLENTY of evidence of more upside .......

Gregnz
29-10-2020, 05:04 PM
Why is there PLENTY of evidence of more upside .......

Biggest sales day of the year, 11:11

Muppett
29-10-2020, 05:07 PM
Biggest sales day of the year, 11:11

11:11 wont do anything to the SP.
If anything unless previous sales are maintained or exceeded, SP could go down!

dreamcatcher
29-10-2020, 05:21 PM
11:11 wont do anything to the SP.
If anything unless previous sales are maintained or exceeded, SP could go down!

LAST YEARS Headlines with a2 selling out of product as they have every year......... This 24hr sales is HUGE for holders if pattern is the same as previous years.

"Alibaba breaks Singles Day record with more then $38 Billion in sales"

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/11/11/alibaba-singles-day-2019-record-sales-on-biggest-shopping-day.html

Gregnz
29-10-2020, 05:37 PM
11:11 wont do anything to the SP.
If anything unless previous sales are maintained or exceeded, SP could go down!

Every other year, immediately following 11:11, the share price has sky rocketed. Why would this year be any different? Obviously if 11:11 isn’t successful I can understand, but it’s also obvious that China is one of the few economies which have recovered and growing.

Cyclical
29-10-2020, 05:45 PM
Nasty, maybe we should wait for it to turn?

Didn't we think it had bottomed out a couple of weeks or so ago? Thankfully my current average isn't too far north of here. Happy to accumulate a few more at these levels, but won't be too surprised to see further weakness this side of the US election.


I've been all in for a while now so waiting for it to turn is all you can do, pretty confident a year from now and holders will laugh about the current period in a good way.

Do I sense your conviction waning a little here, couta?

couta1
29-10-2020, 06:11 PM
Didn't we think it had bottomed out a couple of weeks or so ago? Thankfully my current average isn't too far north of here. Happy to accumulate a few more at these levels, but won't be too surprised to see further weakness this side of the US election.



Do I sense your conviction waning a little here, couta? Having run a few tough marathons in my time, I'm well aware of fluctuating feelings along the way including those of pain, but with an end goal in sight those things must be endured to be successful in finishing the race.

Akane
30-10-2020, 07:35 AM
Every other year, immediately following 11:11, the share price has sky rocketed. Why would this year be any different? Obviously if 11:11 isn’t successful I can understand, but it’s also obvious that China is one of the few economies which have recovered and growing.

You forgot this thing, the Coronavirus that originated from China. Also the Chinese economic "recovery" figures are very questionable.

I would lean on the side of caution, wouldn't count on 11:11 swinging the SP this year.

couta1
30-10-2020, 08:16 AM
You forgot this thing, the Coronavirus that originated from China. Also the Chinese economic "recovery" figures are very questionable.

I would lean on the side of caution, wouldn't count on 11:11 swinging the SP this year. Babies don't care about these things, they want and need a quality trusted milk product like A2 and their parents will cut costs elsewhere to provide it. PS-11:11 gunna be huge.

Gregnz
30-10-2020, 09:17 AM
You forgot this thing, the Coronavirus that originated from China. Also the Chinese economic "recovery" figures are very questionable.

I would lean on the side of caution, wouldn't count on 11:11 swinging the SP this year.

Didn’t forget about Covid, how ridiculous.

You do realise that babies didn’t suddenly stop drinking milk when Covid hit, considering it hit China back in December.
So, what, 10 months with no infant formula?

I’m certainly not counting on 11:11 generating a miraculous recovery in the SP, but also as I’ve said these things provide more upside to downside.
It’s also not a case of 11:11 being priced in, also a ridiculous statement. It’s never priced in any other year, so why would investors start now.

I may be proven wrong come next update, but my contacts in China are predicting an even bigger 11:11 this year vs previous, and seems A2 have been rapidly expanding their direct channels in China to supply product, and appears the demand is still there.

Time will tell I guess.

Akane
30-10-2020, 09:31 AM
Babies don't care about these things, they want and need a quality trusted milk product like A2 and their parents will cut costs elsewhere to provide it. PS-11:11 gunna be huge.



Didn’t forget about Covid, how ridiculous.

You do realise that babies didn’t suddenly stop drinking milk when Covid hit, considering it hit China back in December.
So, what, 10 months with no infant formula?

I’m certainly not counting on 11:11 generating a miraculous recovery in the SP, but also as I’ve said these things provide more upside to downside.
It’s also not a case of 11:11 being priced in, also a ridiculous statement. It’s never priced in any other year, so why would investors start now.

I may be proven wrong come next update, but my contacts in China are predicting an even bigger 11:11 this year vs previous, and seems A2 have been rapidly expanding their direct channels in China to supply product, and appears the demand is still there.

Time will tell I guess.

Then you've just countered your own argument - babies don't stop drinking formula because it's not 11:11 yet.

"Hey Son, sorry daddy can't buy you any formula, because there's a sale 2 months down the track, you'll just have to starve and wait for the sale"

People seem to take 11:11 as the magical silver bullet. Sure, the SP might go up around that time, but 11:11 will not be the reason why.

Gregnz
30-10-2020, 09:39 AM
You honestly think they are starving their babies waiting for a sale?

Lol, that comments made my day. Bahaha

couta1
30-10-2020, 09:41 AM
Then you've just countered your own argument - babies don't stop drinking formula because it's not 11:11 yet.

"Hey Son, sorry daddy can't buy you any formula, because there's a sale 2 months down the track, you'll just have to starve and wait for the sale"

People seem to take 11:11 as the magical silver bullet. Sure, the SP might go up around that time, but 11:11 will not be the reason why. A big 11:11 is important ,especially this year because it will help pull back lost sales due to the Covid effect on the Daigou channel.

dreamcatcher
30-10-2020, 09:47 AM
a2 will sell about 3-4 months worth of product in a single day so product buildup starting a month ago.

As previously expecting huge increase of sales this year and remember they always ...."Sold Out"

dobby41
30-10-2020, 09:50 AM
Then you've just countered your own argument - babies don't stop drinking formula because it's not 11:11 yet.

"Hey Son, sorry daddy can't buy you any formula, because there's a sale 2 months down the track, you'll just have to starve and wait for the sale"

People seem to take 11:11 as the magical silver bullet. Sure, the SP might go up around that time, but 11:11 will not be the reason why.

Also, what they buy on 11:11 they won't buy later - babies don't develop an extra thirst because the milk is on sale.

Gregnz
30-10-2020, 09:53 AM
Also, what they buy on 11:11 they won't buy later - babies don't develop an extra thirst because the milk is on sale.

But they will be very thirsty because they have been starving since December when Covid appeared and Daigou options started drying up earlier in the year. Lol 😂

Akane
30-10-2020, 09:57 AM
You honestly think they are starving their babies waiting for a sale?

Lol, that comments made my day. Bahaha

Errr, that's what couta1 were implying, I'm not sure what point you're trying to get across, you seem quite defensive on ATM. As much as I hope it'll go back up as I'm over -20% on this, I won't bank on 11:11 as the sole reason why it'll be back up in a few week's time, if it does go up that is.

couta1
30-10-2020, 09:58 AM
Also, what they buy on 11:11 they won't buy later - babies don't develop an extra thirst because the milk is on sale. Two words, new punters.

Leftfield
30-10-2020, 10:02 AM
Two words, new punters.

Three words.... 'increased market share.' ;)

LEMON
30-10-2020, 10:02 AM
Some pointless arguments here sounds like egos and speculations more than facts and evidence

DownTownJr
30-10-2020, 10:04 AM
Is nobody worried about the trade relationship between China and NZ affecting share price? That and claims against the A2 protein being a gimmick makes me wary of investing in this stock.

couta1
30-10-2020, 10:10 AM
Three words.... 'increased market share.' ;) Five great words it is then.:cool:

Gregnz
30-10-2020, 10:11 AM
Some pointless arguments here sounds like egos and speculations more than facts and evidence

I guess a bit difficult to give facts and evidence when the 11th November hasn’t happened yet?
My crystal ball is good but not that good

macduffy
30-10-2020, 10:12 AM
Is nobody worried about the trade relationship between China and NZ affecting share price? That and claims against the A2 protein being a gimmick makes me wary of investing in this stock.

These have always been factors to consider before investing in ATM. Don't forget that a bull market - or stock - "climbs a wall of worry".

I hold.

Gerald
30-10-2020, 10:15 AM
Is nobody worried about the trade relationship between China and NZ affecting share price? That and claims against the A2 protein being a gimmick makes me wary of investing in this stock.


Think you mean the trade relationship between Australia and China, NZ and China seems fine, especially with Winnie out of the way poking the bear.

I think China is smart enough to not cut off such an essential good with feirce brand loyalty from locals, got to keep to people happy.

Go and look at the thousands of reviews online for A2 milk products, and that might help you. If you actually beleive A2 milk is the same as standard A1/A2 you must surely beleive there are hundreds of thousands of fooled consumers out there.

Muppett
30-10-2020, 10:18 AM
Is nobody worried about the trade relationship between China and NZ affecting share price? That and claims against the A2 protein being a gimmick makes me wary of investing in this stock.

Everyone knows the product is rubbish and a big have, apart from the dumb Chinese that keep buying it.
When they wake up, see you later hasta la vista.

DownTownJr
30-10-2020, 10:19 AM
Pressure is on for NZ to take a stance against China, especially given the situation in HK. But hey, guess this is all part of the market, was just curious on others thoughts here on the situation.

couta1
30-10-2020, 10:19 AM
Everyone knows the product is rubbish and a big have, apart from the dumb Chinese that keep buying it.
When they wake up, see you later hasta la vista. LOL your living up to you name, be gone Troll and keep your racist comments to yourself.

sb9
30-10-2020, 10:21 AM
Parallels of HotCopper forum here on ST...lol

Greekwatchdog
30-10-2020, 10:23 AM
Where do these egg heads come from. Rubbish Product? Dumb Chinese? WTF? I guess I am a dumb Greek for drinking it...

Gregnz
30-10-2020, 10:28 AM
Where do these egg heads come from. Rubbish Product? Dumb Chinese? WTF? I guess I am a dumb Greek for drinking it...

Muppett always been a troll. Just have to ignore.
Does make for some good entertainment, bar the racist comments.

couta1
30-10-2020, 10:29 AM
Parallels of HotCopper forum here on ST...lol Some of these Trolls are just dual posting on both forums under different names id say.

Gregnz
30-10-2020, 10:37 AM
Pressure is on for NZ to take a stance against China, especially given the situation in HK. But hey, guess this is all part of the market, was just curious on others thoughts here on the situation.

I suspect the pressure is off, now Labour Party here is status quo. If Ardern was going to take a stance, it would have already happened.
Our government know that as a small country we can’t afford to rock the boat with China.
Obviously there are limits to how far you go, but I can’t see Ardern poking the Tiger anytime soon.

BlackPeter
30-10-2020, 10:43 AM
I suspect the pressure is off, now Labour Party here is status quo. If Ardern was going to take a stance, it would have already happened.
Our government know that as a small country we can’t afford to rock the boat with China.
Obviously there are limits to how far you go, but I can’t see Ardern poking the Tiger anytime soon.

Actually - they might. According to a Radio NZ report this morning they are thinking about granting international Hongkong students a pathway to residency in NZ (similar to Australia) ...

While I agree that this might be the right thing to do ... we will find out whether the tiger just roars or whether he jumps ...

dobby41
30-10-2020, 10:59 AM
Three words.... 'increased market share.' ;)

So the other companies don't participate in 11:11?
Lucky ATM.

I hope it does increase the ATM share and they keep selling at the same elevated level they get on 11:11 as I have too many shares - but I doubt it will.
A bit like the hording that started during covid and then rolled back as the pantries were de-stocked.

Biscuit
30-10-2020, 11:29 AM
[QUOTE=Muppett;853202]Everyone knows the product is rubbish and a big have ... /QUOTE]

As a matter of interest, any shareholders here drink A2? Notice any difference?

couta1
30-10-2020, 11:33 AM
[QUOTE=Muppett;853202]Everyone knows the product is rubbish and a big have ... /QUOTE]

As a matter of interest, any shareholders here drink A2? Notice any difference? Yep drink it all the time, tastes much better.

Leftfield
30-10-2020, 11:34 AM
[QUOTE=Muppett;853202]Everyone knows the product is rubbish and a big have ... /QUOTE]

As a matter of interest, any shareholders here drink A2? Notice any difference?

DYOR read this thread.....

Biscuit
30-10-2020, 11:45 AM
[QUOTE=Biscuit;853234]

DYOR read this thread.....

Ah, all 900 pages of it? I'm not that dedicated to the back and forth of anonymous posters that I would do that.

Muppett
30-10-2020, 11:47 AM
As a matter of interest, any shareholders here drink A2? Notice any difference?[/QUOTE]

I buy A2 milk and drink it all the time. It's my bit of propping up the SP.
For what it's worth I have 50,000 shares.
If someone thinks it tastes better, who can argue with that.
But health wise it's a placebo effect.
And the $ are in IF, not in drinking milk that tastes better. Some are suckered in buying it.
Couta1 portfolio is under performing and makes very little money, so he has little credibility.
But hey, everyone likes a rave