ATM - A2 Milk Corporation Limited

[Biscuit]

As a matter of interest, any shareholders here drink A2? Notice any difference?

I buy A2 milk and drink it all the time. It's my bit of propping up the SP.
....[/QUOTE]

Can you get A2 in Cuba? My wife buys things we don't need in local shops to prop them up - drives me mad.

[Gregnz]

@muppett, aren’t you the one who just posted saying only dumb people buy it and it’s a big have?

Confused a tad and already forgotten what you posted earlier, or are you saying your dumb because you buy it too?

[couta1]

[QUOTE=Muppett;853246]

[Leftfield]

[QUOTE=Biscuit 85 3239]

Ah, all 900 pages of it? I'm not that dedicated to the back and forth of anonymous posters that I would do that.


Ssso you would rather waste our time?

FWIW - A2 has improved both my health and my wealth.... that's got to be good.:t_up:

[Cyclical]

Parallels of HotCopper forum here on ST...lol

Not wrong there. One word, painful.


So the other companies don't participate in 11:11?
Lucky ATM.

So one would be lead to believe if reading this thread on HC, umm, sorry, ST.


I hope it does increase the ATM share and they keep selling at the same elevated level they get on 11:11 as I have too many shares - but I doubt it will.
A bit like the hording that started during covid and then rolled back as the pantries were de-stocked.

Yeah, and if I recall correctly, weren't the company forecasts suggesting all the lost ground from H1 will be made up in H2...bahaha.

Anyways, on the topic of the China NZ trade relationship, one thing that gets attention over on HC (when they're not too busy referring to it as an Aussie company) is the fact that this company is quite heavily intertwined with Chinese interests, so possibly likely to be less impacted by soured relations...here's hoping.

[dreamcatcher]

Believe Left field & couta1 are on the money Market Share is what's gained from 11/11

Personally don't drink a2 just own a good slice of shares from way back and don't have first hand knowledge of a2 science but know friends with babies that prefer a2 IF and that's all that matters put it down to whatever one likes why.

Been a most entertaining morning.............

[Biscuit]

[QUOTE=Biscuit;853242]


Ssso you would rather waste our time?

FWIW - A2 has improved both my health and my wealth.... that's got to be good.:t_up:

Talking to me is never a waste of time, but yes given the choice, I would prefer to waste your time than mine :). Thanks for the answer!

[dreamcatcher]

Probably about 5 IF if not more products manufactured from NZ for China ........believe 4 alone made at Pokeno

[couta1]

As a matter of interest, any shareholders here drink A2? Notice any difference?

I/QUOTE] For your info even though I'm down currently, my gain from A2 is still substantial so go figure Muppett. PS- This is in reply to his post #17500 but strange things happen when replying.

[BlackPeter]

As a matter of interest, any shareholders here drink A2? Notice any difference?



We drink only A2 milk, just not from the A2 company :p; Both our Dexter/Jersey cross cow as well as our milking sheep (Ostfriesen) produce high quality A2 milk. And yes, there are some families whose children can't stomach the standard milk from the supermarket, but they are quite fine with the milk from our cow.

Whether the reason for that is A2 or just the benefits of drinking fresh healthy unprocessed milk ... who knows?

[Cyclical]

Yeah, some of you are doing some pretty stuff messing up the HTML with your quoted replies, making it very hard to tell what's being quoted at times. Joys of a touch screen perhaps? Just had a play and it does seem to be playing up a bit.

[Hello123]

Yeah, some of you are doing some pretty stuff messing up the HTML with your quoted replies, making it very hard to tell what's being quoted at times. Joys of a touch screen perhaps? Just had a play and it does seem to be playing up a bit.

Couta1? haha

[Cyclical]

Couta1? haha

I think the source of the issue was Muppet's post #17500 not being right and it's carried through in Couta's reply.

[couta1]

Couta1? haha Muppett must be a bot with racial programming.

[couta1]

I think the source of the issue was Muppet's post #17500 not being right and it's carried through in Couta's reply. Your onto it.

[LEMON]

I guesfficult to give facts and evidence when the 11th November hasn’t happened yet?
My crystal ball is good but not that good

That's because your crystal balls full of emotions by the sounds of it all

[Cyclical]

Ouch, 14.75. I wasn't expecting my buy order at 14:80 to be taken out today, but I no complain. Next week could hurt.

[Gunner]

Ouch, 14.75. I wasn't expecting my buy order at 14:80 to be taken out today, but I no complain. Next week could hurt.

Getting exciting isnt it? Represents a good buy now but Im going to wait until end of next week to pull the trigger.

[couta1]

Ouch, 14.75. I wasn't expecting my buy order at 14:80 to be taken out today, but I no complain. Next week could hurt. The NZX is irrelevant, $13.87 on the ASX is the figure to watch and its just matched it today, the close is all important.

[Sideshow Bob]

Getting exciting isnt it? Represents a good buy now but Im going to wait until end of next week to pull the trigger.

I am lining up for some more, and while I made a poor sell, and a poor (small buy) in recent months, done alright with my money elsewhere and well below where I sold at.

TA looks pretty rubbish and think no rush to buy in the meantime, especially with likely market choppiness with whichever way the US election goes.

[Cyclical]

Getting exciting isnt it? Represents a good buy now but Im going to wait until end of next week to pull the trigger.

Indeed. If it's going to replicate what it's done the last couple of years, you wouldn't be wanting to sit on the sideline for too much longer...but then this year is quite different init. I'll also add a few more next week if it drops another 50c or so. Cautious about get in too deep with this one though...I have a feeling the big growth may be a thing of the past and the current downturn is just bringing the PE more in line with that reality. Another month or so should be telling...if we don't see a good uptick in SP this side of Xmas, expect to see the current strong believers start to soften their resolve and begin to offload.

[Biscuit]

...I have a feeling the big growth may be a thing of the past and the current downturn is just bringing the PE more in line with that reality....

We just need Muppet to get out there and buy more A2 milk :). It gets harder to sustain growth as you get bigger, other than that and the temporary effect of COVID, has anything fundamentally changed? I don't think so.

[bull....]

$13 dollars next support i reckon. short interest is on the rise again

[couta1]

Indeed. If it's going to replicate what it's done the last couple of years, you wouldn't be wanting to sit on the sideline for too much longer...but then this year is quite different init. I'll also add a few more next week if it drops another 50c or so. Cautious about get in too deep with this one though...I have a feeling the big growth may be a thing of the past and the current downturn is just bringing the PE more in line with that reality. Another month or so should be telling...if we don't see a good uptick in SP this side of Xmas, expect to see the current strong believers start to soften their resolve and begin to offload. I wouldnt consider off loading any until I see where things are at in 1-2 yrs time and I suspect most of the other top 152 holders that hold 87% of the stock would view things the same way, in fact I wouldn't be surprised if the stock hasn't become more concentrated during this current drop. The other 13% which includes shorters are in a delusion if they think they can hold the price down over that time frame I believe, the 13% are being allowed to pull the price down even though they think they are in control, any of the really big holders could put a stop to it anytime they wanted but they don't, they want to accumulate.

[Biscuit]

I wouldnt consider off loading any until I see where things are at in 1-2 yrs time and I suspect most of the other top 152 holders that hold 87% of the stock would view things the same way, in fact I wouldn't be surprised if the stock hasn't become more concentrated during this current drop. The other 13% which includes shorters are in a delusion if they think they can hold the price down over that time frame I believe.

Yes, it depends on your timeframe. Long-term holders are not going to be phased by movements down in share price except as an opportunity to buy. Short termers are best to stay out until an up trend is re-established. Time will tell whether the growth story is shot. Even if it is, and I doubt it, the downside is not that great from here, compared to say losing an arm. Bought some more today.

[Leftfield]

Yes, it depends on your timeframe. Long-term holders are not going to be phased by movements down in share price except as an opportunity to buy. Short termers are best to stay out until an up trend is re-established. Time will tell whether the growth story is shot. Even if it is, and I doubt it, the downside is not that great from here, compared to say losing an arm. Bought some more today.

Brings back memories of the tree shaking that shook many small holders out of XRO as it dropped from $40 to $14 :eek2:

As Couta notes, the institutions are buying ATM and now hold 87%, as weak hands sell....best to think longer term (like the institutions) 'cos ATM will soon be heading north to $100 (just like XRO!!) ;)

[Sheryl yoast]

As a matter of interest, any shareholders here drink A2? Notice any difference?

I buy A2 milk and drink it all the time. It's my bit of propping up the SP.
For what it's worth I have 50,000 shares.
If someone thinks it tastes better, who can argue with that.
But health wise it's a placebo effect.
And the $ are in IF, not in drinking milk that tastes better. Some are suckered in buying it.
Couta1 portfolio is under performing and makes very little money, so he has little credibility.
But hey, everyone likes a rave[/QUOTE]

I assume the placebo conclusion is based off your extensive research on facebook.

If only there were multiple research papers out there showing the negative effects of the A1 protein...

[Justin]

i follow the online stream for promote 11/11 sales in taobao，a2 is the second most popular overseas infant brand next to aptamil.

[dreamcatcher]

i follow the online stream for promote 11/11 sales in taobao，a2 is the second most popular overseas infant brand next to aptamil.

Thanks for the update............ Believe aptamil is NZ made for Danone

[NADZAB]

Thanks for the update............ Believe aptamil is NZ made for Danone
I did a fact check in store today in China, Aptamil at local baby store is “Made in Netherlands”

[daveypnz]

Brings back memories of the tree shaking that shook many small holders out of XRO as it dropped from $40 to $14 :eek2:

As Couta notes, the institutions are buying ATM and now hold 87%, as weak hands sell....best to think longer term (like the institutions) 'cos ATM will soon be heading north to $100 (just like XRO!!) ;)

If the share price were to reach $100 that would make the market cap over 70 billion, wouldn't it? They'd be larger than Westpac, seems unlikely.

[Gunner]

What is ATM's rationale for having such a large cash reserve? Why not pay dividends or reinvest more than they currently do?

[Gregnz]

What is ATM's rationale for having such a large cash reserve? Why not pay dividends or reinvest more than they currently do.

A lot of us who hold A2 stock wonder that. I guess being in a position to start paying dividends could be their trump card.
In the past they say it’s for growth, but I’d personally like them to start rewarding long term holders as this could attract new investors and perhaps limit some of the annual sell off that we see each year by shorters and market manipulators.

[Gunner]

A lot of us who hold A2 stock wonder that. I guess being in a position to start paying dividends could be their trump card.
In the past they say it’s for growth, but I’d personally like them to start rewarding long term holders as this could attract new investors and perhaps limit some of the annual sell off that we see each year by shorters and market manipulators.

It doesnt make sense on the surface. They should be utilising the cash to expand and reinvest. The opportunity cost of what will be close to 1 billion dollars soon should not be understated.

[Sideshow Bob]

It doesnt make sense on the surface. They should be utilising the cash to expand and reinvest. The opportunity cost of what will be close to 1 billion dollars soon should not be understated.

All things being equal, they've spent $270m of it on 75% of Mataura Valley - subject to DD which I think must be pretty extensive by the time frames involved.

[Lion_graf]

All things being equal, they've spent $270m of it on 75% of Mataura Valley - subject to DD which I think must be pretty extensive by the time frames involved.

Not particularly an investment in line with their past strategy. ATM being a growth stock and all.. Which I think is somewhat the sentiment investors are feeling presently as this company matures. It's more geared towards manufacturing purposes rather than gaining market share or sales and growing the a2 brand.

[Biscuit]

Not particularly an investment in line with their past strategy. ATM being a growth stock and all.. Which I think is somewhat the sentiment investors are feeling presently as this company matures. It's more geared towards manufacturing purposes rather than gaining market share or sales and growing the a2 brand.


Is it not possible to do both though? Can a company not invest in manufacturing while continuing to grow the brand etc? Surely ATM are going to be better off with their new factory than with the cash in the bank? What really is the problem?

[Cyclical]

With debt being so cheap these days, you'd think some of that cash pile could be passed back to share holders. Would go a long way towards attracting investors looking for yield vs capital gain...or with the high PE, maybe the yield would be a little too embarrassing?

[Leftfield]

If the share price were to reach $100 that would make the market cap over 70 billion, wouldn't it? They'd be larger than Westpac, seems unlikely.


What is ATM's rationale for having such a large cash reserve? Why not pay dividends or reinvest more than they currently do?

Suggest you folk take a look at this. (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Guyfo_snyOw&feature=youtu.be)

It may also pay you to look back on this thread as most if the Q's you are asking have been thrashed out previously.

Of course past performance does not guarantee future performance and with the USA elections there is likely to be considerable uncertainty in the market, so it is very much about DYOR and taking responsibility for your own decisions.

(Disc - long term holder.. and happy.)

[couta1]

Suggest you folk take a look at this. (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Guyfo_snyOw&feature=youtu.be)

It may also pay you to look back on this thread as most if the Q's you are asking have been thrashed out previously.

Of course past performance does not guarantee future performance and with the USA elections there is likely to be considerable uncertainty in the market, so it is very much about DYOR and taking responsibility for your own decisions.

(Disc - hold and happy.) That's a fantastic video and may I suggest a compulsory watch for all readers of this thread especially the Troll variety.

[Gregnz]

Suggest you folk take a look at this. (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Guyfo_snyOw&feature=youtu.be)

It may also pay you to look back on this thread as most if the Q's you are asking have been thrashed out previously.

Of course past performance does not guarantee future performance and with the USA elections there is likely to be considerable uncertainty in the market, so it is very much about DYOR and taking responsibility for your own decisions.

(Disc - long term holder.. and happy.)

It is a great video. I couldn’t help myself and threw it on HC yesterday, such a bunch of numptys across the ditch.
One of them even tried to compare standard milk with A2 milk and said that standard milk was more popular and cheaper! 😂

[couta1]

It is a great video. I couldn’t help myself and threw it on HC yesterday, such a bunch of numptys across the ditch.
One of them even tried to compare standard milk with A2 milk and said that standard milk was more popular and cheaper!  That place is infected with Trolls/serial down rampers and broking company sluts, kinda fun though if you use the ignore button and maintain a good sense of humor.

[Gregnz]

That place is infected with Trolls/serial down rampers and broking company sluts, kinda fun though if you use the ignore button and maintain a good sense of humor.

It definitely gave me some entertainment yesterday.

[Justin]

will 14.4 be next resistant？time to top up？

[couta1]

will 14.4 be next resistant？time to top up？ Why ask if your a LT holder and see a sp passing its previous ath in due course? I cant see the point in worrying about even a dollar here or there in the big scheme of things. PS-The stock is such a screaming bargin it should be illegal.

[Waltzing]

Support for ATM at 14.60 goes back to May 2019.

[Biscuit]

Why ask if your a LT holder and see a sp passing its previous ath in due course? I cant see the point in worrying about even a dollar here or there in the big scheme of things. PS-The stock is such a screaming bargin it should be illegal.

Agree, it is a screaming buy IMHO.

[Lion_graf]

Is it not possible to do both though? Can a company not invest in manufacturing while continuing to grow the brand etc? Surely ATM are going to be better off with their new factory than with the cash in the bank? What really is the problem?

Can 100% do both. And I'm sure they are better for it having the new factory. It's just not what LT holders are used to. Maybe cash left in the bank afterwards will be purely for growth. Or could be for a dividend. Its uncertainty i guess

[dreamcatcher]

I did a fact check in store today in China, Aptamil at local baby store is “Made in Netherlands”

Thanks for the correction.

Sent a lot of aptamil to China from NZ Bonded store and believe its made here but will check label if possible.

[Justin]

Why ask if your a LT holder and see a sp passing its previous ath in due course? I cant see the point in worrying about even a dollar here or there in the big scheme of things. PS-The stock is such a screaming bargin it should be illegal.

hi couta I knew current sp trade at pe 28 is fairly cheaper than pe 45, Im already bought in last resistant, just look to jump in at next resistant.

[MauroNZ]

Suggest you folk take a look at this. (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Guyfo_snyOw&feature=youtu.be)

It may also pay you to look back on this thread as most if the Q's you are asking have been thrashed out previously.

Of course past performance does not guarantee future performance and with the USA elections there is likely to be considerable uncertainty in the market, so it is very much about DYOR and taking responsibility for your own decisions.

(Disc - long term holder.. and happy.)

Thanks! I usually follow that channel in Spanish :).

[sb9]

Why ask if your a LT holder and see a sp passing its previous ath in due course? I cant see the point in worrying about even a dollar here or there in the big scheme of things. PS-The stock is such a screaming bargin it should be illegal.

Getting very close to my tp for a top up, need to mobilise some funds quickly before it runs away..

[Cyclical]

Getting very close to my tp for a top up, need to mobilise some funds quickly before it runs away..

I keep averaging down, but can't do it forever!

[Leftfield]

Getting very close to my tp for a top up, need to mobilise some funds quickly before it runs away..

Thankfully I'm sitting on a healthy cash balance primarily because I've been cautious regarding USA elections and took some profits off the table several months ago.

My guess is that ATM's shorters will also be watching the outcome in the US closely.

I'm not so worried about 'picking the bottom' ( as Couta says a few cents now matters little in the long term.) However, I'll only commit my cash when I see a mix of good news and a change in current ST trend.

IMHO the short term market could go either way depending on the US election results..... (better be careful - I'm beginning to sound like our resident Bear - Bull!!)

I can't wait to have the US elections out of the way!!

[couta1]

Yeah you can only enjoy a circus for so long and clowns can get irritating after a while, meantime babies are still consuming the same amount of milk as always.

[Biscuit]

.....I can't wait to have the US elections out of the way!!


I can't wait to watch the elections, grab the popcorn, biggest spectator event for a decade at least.

[sb9]

Thankfully I'm sitting on a healthy cash balance primarily because I've been cautious regarding USA elections and took some profits off the table several months ago.

My guess is that ATM's shorters will also be watching the outcome in the US closely.

I'm not so worried about 'picking the bottom' ( as Couta says a few cents now matters little in the long term.) However, I'll only commit my cash when I see a mix of good news and a change in current ST trend.

IMHO the short term market could go either way depending on the US election results..... (better be careful - I'm beginning to sound like our resident Bear - Bull!!)

I can't wait to have the US elections out of the way!!

I hear you re US elections scenario having an impact on markets in the short term, but does it really matter who comes into Power for a company like A2 in the longer term. I treat the US elections as a short term distraction and will be a non-event very soon.

[Biscuit]

I hear you re US elections scenario having an impact on markets in the short term, but does it really matter who comes into Power for a company like A2 in the longer term. I treat the US elections as a short term distraction and will be a non-event very soon.

There are risks around the freedom of global trade having a US president with protectionist tendencies facing off with China that is similarly disposed to putting narrow national interests ahead of seeking global consensus. The US-China trade issues need to be resolved soon.

[Lion_graf]

Not only the US china trade war. If Trump stays in he'll provide more stimulus. But there could be riots. Atleast the economy will stay open. If Biden wins, we could see people in lockdown and the economy heading south.. and we all know what happens when the US market goes down.

[Biscuit]

Not only the US china trade war. If Trump stays in he'll provide more stimulus. But there could be riots. Atleast the economy will stay open. If Biden wins, we could see people in lockdown and the economy heading south.. and we all know what happens when the US market goes down.

An even bet there will be stimulus and riots either way. Also, there will be a pandemic either way and economic disruption as a result, more likely prolonged under Trump but still there under Biden. For ATM the biggest potential risk is global trade wars or random protectionist measures that knock them out of markets.

[bull....]

looking goood , lets go bouys 13$

[Gregnz]

looking goood , lets go bouys 13$

Personally dont see $13, unless the results from 11/11 truely are terrible. But based on JD.com / Tmall.com , A2 is top of the list for pre sales. Also singles day this year is split into more than one period which would suggest to me that sales could easily eclipse previous years.

[bull....]

Personally dont see $13, unless the results from 11/11 truely are terrible. But based on JD.com / Tmall.com , A2 is top of the list for pre sales. Also singles day this year is split into more than one period which would suggest to me that sales could easily eclipse previous years.

1 day dont make a year

[Justin]

Personally dont see $13, unless the results from 11/11 truely are terrible. But based on JD.com / Tmall.com , A2 is top of the list for pre sales. Also singles day this year is split into more than one period which would suggest to me that sales could easily eclipse previous years.

Maybe see $13 before 11/11 no any resistant and just keep dropping right now.

[couta1]

looking goood , lets go bouys 13$ You let yourself down with these random down ramping posts and i mean that in a sincere way.

[Gregnz]

1 day dont make a year

No, agreed, but one day every previous year has a significant impact on the share price. 1 day is when 3-4 months worth of product is sold in previous years, and a good gauge of Chinese demand.

[Gregnz]

You let yourself down with these random down ramping posts and i mean that in a sincere way.

He's our equivalent of Eric from HC.

[bull....]

No, agreed, but one day every previous year has a significant impact on the share price. 1 day is when 3-4 months worth of product is sold in previous years, and a good gauge of Chinese demand.

we still have de-stocking happening so cant imagine people with cupboards full still re- stocking

[couta1]

He's our equivalent of Eric from HC. I've got a few Trolls on ignore on HC but so far no one ever on this forum, and yes Eric is one of them.

[Gregnz]

we still have de-stocking happening so cant imagine people with cupboards full still re- stocking

That would be true except that pre sales already indicate a highly successful 11/11 for A2. You dont achieve significant pre-sales if people aren't re-stocking per se.

[bull....]

You let yourself down with these random down ramping posts and i mean that in a sincere way.

you complained when i mentioned negative stuff everyday so now i do it random and you still complain.

[bull....]

That would be true except that pre sales already indicate a highly successful 11/11 for A2. You dont achieve significant pre-sales if people aren't re-stocking per se.

we will find out , will be able to make assumptons to a small degree based on these sales. as i believe its a bit hard to translate them into full yr assumptions

[couta1]

you complained when i mentioned negative stuff everyday so now i do it random and you still complain. Lol there is no pleasing some people aye.

[carrom74]

How can a company is on a free fall when all it announced was that-daigous are not buying it’s products? I am conspicuous..I hate to say it but something more is brewing. I just hope it’s not
Disc- Holding- making losses and averaging

[Biscuit]

How can a company is on a free fall when all it announced was that-daigous are not buying it’s products? I am conspicuous..I hate to say it but something more is brewing. I just hope it’s not
Disc- Holding- making losses and averaging

Unless you are buying or selling shares, it does not matter what the share price is doing.

[Justin]

Bub down 7.25% today could be one of reason?

[BlackPeter]

Not only the US china trade war. If Trump stays in he'll provide more stimulus. But there could be riots. Atleast the economy will stay open. If Biden wins, we could see people in lockdown and the economy heading south.. and we all know what happens when the US market goes down.

You mean Trump is going the UK or Swedish way (well, still a bit more chaotic than that) - lots of dead people and economy kaputt.

Biden would go the German (or South Korean) way - less than one fifth of Trump's fatalities and the economy is still running.

Economies just don't run with dead people and people afraid of dying due to a braindead government, no matter how open they are.

US Markets better follow the safe way with Biden and stay alive and humming ...

[couta1]

How can a company is on a free fall when all it announced was that-daigous are not buying it’s products? I am conspicuous..I hate to say it but something more is brewing. I just hope it’s not
Disc- Holding- making losses and averaging Yet it is still not down as much as it was in 2018/2019 so nothing more brewing than the previous yrs other than the possibility of a takeover offer or the outbreak of WW3.

[Gunner]

Interesting video

[Ggcc]

Yet it is still not down as much as it was in 2018/2019 so nothing more brewing than the previous yrs other than the possibility of a takeover offer or the outbreak of WW3.
I agree that now is the perfect time for someone to jump on and take over ATM, who sees it as a threat. I don't want it to be sold, but the price ATM will be in 5 years time will be far greater than todays price. One would think $24-28 per share at todays date for 100% of the company.

[carrom74]

Yet it is still not down as much as it was in 2018/2019 so nothing more brewing than the previous yrs other than the possibility of a takeover offer or the outbreak of WW3.

I hope nothing is brewing too... With almost all my money on ATM now, i am keen to see a good ASM with lots of positives and a clear pathway.

P.S- you are right couta-not as bad as the previous years when Jayne sold her shares...

[Waltzing]

I did say 13 was an outside chance, has to break 14.50 first and not just for a few days .

Yes china politics is a problem but as one voter holder pointed out they buy farms here. But remember a good party member will always poop the party for the parties good not the good of the people.

As for the product i will politely ask my bio chem phd on count 3 lowering , whats all this protein stuff anyway, just arguments over spilt milk?

[Justin]

A recent report says Chinese consumers will be buying goods made in China, rather than global brands, on Alibaba's big "singles day" sale later this month. If this eventuates, then it may take some of the gloss away from a2 Milk, which has been the sixth largest global selling brand in the sale.

who knows where to get this report？I don’t believe Chinese middle class will consider made in china infant formula.

[couta1]

A recent report says Chinese consumers will be buying goods made in China, rather than global brands, on Alibaba's big "singles day" sale later this month. If this eventuates, then it may take some of the gloss away from a2 Milk, which has been the sixth largest global selling brand in the sale.

who knows where to get this report？I don’t believe Chinese middle class will consider made in china infant formula. Yeah right, pass a tui to that baby someone.

[Akane]

A recent report says Chinese consumers will be buying goods made in China, rather than global brands, on Alibaba's big "singles day" sale later this month. If this eventuates, then it may take some of the gloss away from a2 Milk, which has been the sixth largest global selling brand in the sale.

who knows where to get this report？I don’t believe Chinese middle class will consider made in china infant formula.

It'll never happen, the CCP is the biggest hypocrites I know. They say how strong their nation has become and everyone's resenting them because of jealousy, and how far ahead in terms of technology they are, but the truth is everyone wants to have an iPhone, drive a German car, eat Aussie beef, drink NZ milk, watch a Japanese TV. There's just no trust in Chinese made products as there's just too much dodgy / fake products, the nationalism is real until they have to walk the walk themselves, therefore there will always be demand for foreign IF.

If they place some kind of blanket restriction on foreign IF, daigous and grey markets will take over.

[bull....]

It'll never happen, the CCP is the biggest hypocrites I know. They say how strong their nation has become and everyone's resenting them because of jealousy, and how far ahead in terms of technology they are, but the truth is everyone wants to have an iPhone, drive a German car, eat Aussie beef, drink NZ milk, watch a Japanese TV. There's just no trust in Chinese made products as there's just too much dodgy / fake products, the nationalism is real until they have to walk the walk themselves, therefore there will always be demand for foreign IF.

If they place some kind of blanket restriction on foreign IF, daigous and grey markets will take over.

its the stated intention of china to promote and make laws so that local companies will prevail over foreign companies. this is well documented.
daigous and grey markets only exist in china if the china party allows it.

[couta1]

its the stated intention of china to promote and make laws so that local companies will prevail over foreign companies. this is well documented.
daigous and grey markets only exist in china if the china party allows it. The best laid plans of mice and men often mean diddly squat as will be the case here, Chinese love foreign products and rhetoric.

[Akane]

its the stated intention of china to promote and make laws so that local companies will prevail over foreign companies. this is well documented.
daigous and grey markets only exist in china if the china party allows it.

I still believe that the end user will get their hands on the product, one way or the other, there's just no trust in their own products, especially when it comes to infants. I understand that China wants to be less and less reliant on foreign products, as they're pissing more and more of the world off.......... but I don't think they can do that just yet.
Imagine telling the vast majority of the new mum and dads that "No, your little precious have to drink our untrusted IF, because the party says so"...... what a sight to be seen :D

[bull....]

Imagine telling the vast majority of the new mum and dads that "No, your little precious have to drink our untrusted IF, because the party says so"...... what a sight to be seen :D

and thats exactly what they can do if they decide. dare you to complain if you lived there

[BlackPeter]

It'll never happen, the CCP is the biggest hypocrites I know. They say how strong their nation has become and everyone's resenting them because of jealousy, and how far ahead in terms of technology they are, but the truth is everyone wants to have an iPhone, drive a German car, eat Aussie beef, drink NZ milk, watch a Japanese TV. There's just no trust in Chinese made products as there's just too much dodgy / fake products, the nationalism is real until they have to walk the walk themselves, therefore there will always be demand for foreign IF.

If they place some kind of blanket restriction on foreign IF, daigous and grey markets will take over.


The best laid plans of mice and men often mean diddly squat as will be the case here, Chinese love foreign products and rhetoric.

Amazing how many China specialists we seem to have on this thread ... and interesting that they make money from owning shares in a company which benefits from selling to people they seem to despise and ridicule.

Maybe you should review your PR strategy - not good to put down the best customers of the company you effectively co-own. In the long term it is always better to show respect to the people who fund your livelihood (or your next gas guzzler :): , particularly so if they are people with pride and used to play the long game.

[Akane]

Amazing how many China specialists we seem to have on this thread ... and interesting that they make money from owning shares in a company which benefits from selling to people they seem to despise and ridicule.

Maybe you should review your PR strategy - not good to put down the best customers of the company you effectively co-own. In the long term it is always better to show respect to the people who fund your livelihood (or your next gas guzzler :): , particularly so if they are people with pride and used to play the long game.

I guess you have not seen my Ph.D in China specialties, obtained from the University of the interwebz.

And about the funding my livelihood, my -26.7% on ATM disagrees with you :D :D :D

[Balance]

Amazing how many China specialists we seem to have on this thread ... and interesting that they make money from owning shares in a company which benefits from selling to people they seem to despise and ridicule.

Maybe you should review your PR strategy - not good to put down the best customers of the company you effectively co-own. In the long term it is always better to show respect to the people who fund your livelihood (or your next gas guzzler :): , particularly so if they are people with pride and used to play the long game.

Good points, BP and therein lies the risks & opportunities when dealing with what is now unquestionably the biggest and fastest growing consumer market in the world - China.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/745647/china-major-imf-companies-market-share/

Don’t let the facts stand in the way of what some of the posters here delude themselves on what’s really happening with the IF market in China!

A2M will continue to do well in the premium end of the market for a while yet while China’s domestic IF producers continue to move up the value chain. Watch for that inflection point!

[couta1]

Amazing how many China specialists we seem to have on this thread ... and interesting that they make money from owning shares in a company which benefits from selling to people they seem to despise and ridicule.

Maybe you should review your PR strategy - not good to put down the best customers of the company you effectively co-own. In the long term it is always better to show respect to the people who fund your livelihood (or your next gas guzzler :): , particularly so if they are people with pride and used to play the long game. I see no despising or ridicule in my post, rhetoric is the name of the game in international politics, you of all people should know that with all your anti Trump crusading on other threads.

[couta1]

Good points, BP and therein lies the risks & opportunities when dealing with what is now unquestionably the biggest and fastest growing consumer market in the world - China.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/745647/china-major-imf-companies-market-share/

Don’t let the facts stand in the way of what some of the posters here delude themselves on what’s really happening with the IF market in China!

A2M will continue to do well in the premium end of the market for a while yet while China’s domestic IF producers continue to move up the value chain. Watch for that inflection point! Bit of a sour grapes post, A2 is the future of milk not just in China so no we are not deluded.

[whatsup]

Im picking a up day today after a way over sold beating that we have endured over the last week, great for D Ters IF you have the ba!!s to do so !

[couta1]

Im picking a up day today after a way over sold beating that we have endured over the last week, great for D Ters IF you have the ba!!s to do so ! Haha I've got 4 times the value of our house(Which is very average) in this stock, is that ballsy enough.

[Akane]

Haha I've got 4 times the value of our house(Which is very average) in this stock, is that ballsy enough.

How do you walk around with that big thing hanging between your legs?

[couta1]

How do you walk around with that big thing hanging between your legs? The size has shrunk by 30% of late so a bit easier to walk but when it runs hard the other way, then the problems start.

[Balance]

Bit of a sour grapes post, A2 is the future of milk not just in China so no we are not deluded.

Not at all, couta1.

I am simply pointing out that China's domestic IF producers have been increasing their market share since 2016 - the dark days of the melamine scandal 15 years ago are not top of mind with the consumers there anymore. Top of mind is affordability and it is a fact that like ALL ASIANS, the Chinese prefer imported premium brands.

It is simply incorrect for some posters here to continue to rubbish China's IF producers as non-competitors now or in the future as the reason for A2M to continue to do well in that market.

A2M has an enviable premium position and the real issue here is how well it will maintain that position in the face of increased competition.

I went and had a look at A2 IF prices at our local supermarket the other day and it's interesting to note that the other brands (Karicare & Nestle) are selling 20% cheaper than A2M.

Meanwhile, stock is on my watch list but I am on the sidelines for 2 reasons:

1. Profit downgrades come in threes and that's still my major concern,

2. Insiders selling in the quantum that they did - not a good sign.

Fair enough?

[whatsup]

Haha I've got 4 times the value of our house(Which is very average) in this stock, is that ballsy enough.

Couts, I was talking about ba!!sy to D Tade it today, not a historical holding statement !!

[couta1]

Not at all, couta1.

I am simply pointing out that China's domestic IF producers have been increasing their market share since 2016 - the dark days of the melamine scandal 15 years ago are not top on mind with the consumers there anymore. It is simply incorrect for some posters here to continue to rubbish China's IF producers as non-competitors now or in the future.

A2M has an enviable premium position and the real issue here is how well it will maintain that position in the face of increased competition.

I went and had a look at A2 IF prices at our local supermarket the other day and it's interesting to note that the other brands are selling 20% cheaper than A2M.

Meanwhile, stock is on my watch list but I am on the sidelines for 2 reasons:

1. Profit downgrades come in threes and that's still my major concern,

2. Insiders selling in the quantum that they did - not a good sign.

Fair enough? Yep fair enough as they are your genuine concerns, personally I see Geopolitical threats as more of a concern, I see the Daigou downgrade as a blip so don't see another one coming in this case, secondly insiders sell every year in their window of opportunity but they still hold a truckload of shares so not a major issue, unlike the former CEO who sold all her shares at first opportunity. The sp was on the rise again after the insiders sold but before the downgrade so the downgrade has been the real market issue IMO.

[Getty]

It'll never happen, the CCP is the biggest hypocrites I know. They say how strong their nation has become and everyone's resenting them because of jealousy, and how far ahead in terms of technology they are, but the truth is everyone wants to have an iPhone, drive a German car, eat Aussie beef, drink NZ milk, watch a Japanese TV. There's just no trust in Chinese made products as there's just too much dodgy / fake products, the nationalism is real until they have to walk the walk themselves, therefore there will always be demand for foreign IF.

If they place some kind of blanket restriction on foreign IF, daigous and grey markets will take over.

Re;no trust in Chinese made products.

I bought a Chinese made TV 32 years ago from the Warehouse, for a low price.

After I had it for about 5 yrs, I was in a group discussion, with a TV technician.
He exclaimed, you wouldnt buy a Chinese TV would you?
I informed him that the "reputable" brand TV's that had cost me 5 times the purchase price of the Chinese one, had since cost me that price in repairs alone.
That TV is still reliably working for me now as a slave monitor from my SKY 32 yrs later, never had any care or repair.
The reputables saw the dump decades ago.

[couta1]

Couts, I was talking about ba!!sy to D Tade it today, not a historical holding statement !! Oh okay, cant see much risk in any trade at current price but D Trade is more of a coin flip for sure.

[whatsup]

Re;no trust in Chinese made products.

I bought a Chinese made TV 32 years ago from the Warehouse, for a low price.

After I had it for about 5 yrs, I was in a group discussion, with a TV technician.
He exclaimed, you wouldnt buy a Chinese TV would you?
I informed him that the "reputable" brand TV's that had cost me 5 times the purchase price of the Chinese one, had since cost me that price in repairs alone.
That TV is still reliably working for me now as a slave monitor from my SKY 32 yrs later, never had any care or repair.
The reputables saw the dump decades ago.

Getty, THAT is one massive surprise to me, well done.

[Waltzing]

ATM seems to bounce in november for the last 3 years. Based on the sales from the dates mentioned in previous posts.

13.60 lower support.

[Getty]

Getty, THAT is one massive surprise to me, well done.

Before anyone snarls its off topic, it is an ONWA.
Cost either $249 or $299, which was cheap for the time.

[Getty]

Before anyone snarls its off topic, it is an ONWA.
Cost either $249 or $299, which was cheap for the time.

My Mitsibishi TV cost $2995. @ 2 yrs earlier

[Gregnz]

Before anyone snarls its off topic, it is an ONWA.
Cost either $249 or $299, which was cheap for the time.

I suspect the quality of some Chinese manufactured products from more recent times have gone down hill. We have been thru two Veon TVs, also made in China, each time replaced under warranty by The Warehouse, both died within 2 years of purchase.
Same can probably be said of most products though, including Japanese manufactured, not built like they used to be.

[clearasmud]

Our Veon TV has been used daily for the last 5 years and it only cost about 120dlrs secondhand but unused.

[couta1]

My grandkids stated drinking A2 at a young age after suffering skin allergies whilst drinking A1 milk. PS-They have never been concerned about which TV brand they watched or how long it lasted but for the record we have both Sony and Veon sets in our house which we have had for yonks.

[Biscuit]

My grandkids stated drinking A2 at a young age after suffering skin allergies whilst drinking A1 milk.


You need to do a properly controlled study: Without telling them, switch one of the grandkids back onto A1 milk and see if the allergy comes back.

[Leftfield]

Suggest you folk take a look at this. (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Guyfo_snyOw&feature=youtu.be)

A long time ago I likened ATM's marketing strategy to being, "the coca-cola of milk."

Here's a timely reminder what the power of marketing can do....

12058

And those who are getting their .... twisted over ATM's reliance in China, just remember the Daigaou channel is just one of many and in the past 12 months ATM has also added Korea and Canada to its global market.


How do you walk around with that big thing hanging between your legs?

Being a bit more modest than Couta I'm pleased to report that sometimes its performance that counts..... not size ;)

Here's an uncensored centrefold picture of how ATM enhanced portfolio performance looks;

12059

(Just saying)

[LEMON]

Who cares about Chinese quality of the product. It's about milk from A2, China has a huge population with various weather patterns, a huge population lifted out of poverty, more people acquiring passports and getting to see a world outside of China (I think some writers here need to leave Nz comforts and go see the world considering the views on China is ridiculous) they want baby formula and good quality products and without foreign trade, china would be ruined. The climate comes in all forms destroying crops, harvest and water levels meaning not always will china be able to keep the demand for milk or food form it's own people. NZ's A2 milk is in China whether we like it or not and nothing will stop the progress of people looking outside there man-made borders for newer products, views and opinions. Some of the views on A2 milk here are so outdated. Even the USA still trades with China to this point.
We only see bad products because our own companies in the western world buy cheap product to sell at higher costs than cost of production, not because one of the largest economies in the world can not make a TV

[bull....]

fehei is the no1 infant formula producer and by sales in china and is regarded well by chinese buyers , trades at lower pe than a2.

[glasszon]

New ATM holder down nearly 30% already, am I the only one who's thinking about bailing out and invest in another stock? Seems like no matter what, ATM just goes down every day.

[RGR367]

Added more at 1420! And yes, I'm catching falling knives :cool:

[Gregnz]

Added more at 1420! And yes, I'm catching falling knives :cool:

Added more at $14.14, likewise, still have two feet to sacrifice.

[Biscuit]

New ATM holder down nearly 30% already, am I the only one who's thinking about bailing out and invest in another stock? Seems like no matter what, ATM just goes down every day.

If you thought they were worth more than $20 a few months ago, what makes you think they are not worth $14 now?

[Gregnz]

New ATM holder down nearly 30% already, am I the only one who's thinking about bailing out and invest in another stock? Seems like no matter what, ATM just goes down every day.

Personally I wouldn't but I'm no expert, but thats a decision only you can make. The share price still hasn't dropped as much from its recent peaks as it did previous years, this is just a repeating pattern.
If you havent already watched it, theres a good video to watch a few threads back which would be well worth watching as a new ATM investor.

[Getty]

Usual story, when the shops put up the Sale sign, people flock in,
When the sharemarket puts up the same sign, people say Gosh, the goods must be faulty...

[Biscuit]

Usual story, when the shops put up the Sale sign, people flock in,
When the sharemarket puts up the same sign, people say Gosh, the goods must be faulty...

My wife repeatedly buying things we really don't need at Briscoes on sale, always telling me how much money we have saved :scared:. On the other hand, fear of losing money - a very powerful emotion, especially when you're watching the money disappear in front of you.

[glasszon]

If you thought they were worth more than $20 a few months ago, what makes you think they are not worth $14 now?

I bought before ATM announced its issues with sales relating to the Melbourne lockdown and Australian export to China is having a hard time at the moment. So now I am thinking whether it's better to deploy the capital to companies with turnaround potential (such as WBC, there's no way the Australian government can let one of the big 4 bank fail and it is trading at ten year low) rather than holding onto ATM when it isn't clear where the bottom is, given the PE of ATM is still very high.

[Getty]

Wifey is getting a bit of retail therapy, which helps her outlook on life, but this ATM isnt running out of cash anytime soon.

[couta1]

New ATM holder down nearly 30% already, am I the only one who's thinking about bailing out and invest in another stock? Seems like no matter what, ATM just goes down every day. My advice and advice im taking myself would be dont sell unless you have to, do the figures on how long it would take you to make up your loss by putting it on another stock, as an example if I sold all mine and put it into HLG it would take around 7 yrs of divvies to recoup the crystallized loss and then how can you guarantee that the price of the stock you buy doesn't go down. If it was a dog stock then it would be a different story but we are talking about a quality company here. PS-Im speaking from big time past experience here in terms of unwise loss selling.

[glasszon]

Thanks everyone, looks like the message is loud and clear: Don't sell, ATM will have its day in the sun.

Perhaps I might pick up a small parcel to average down a bit.

[Lion_graf]

Someone decided to buy 1.1million worth just now. 79,000 shares

[Biscuit]

Thanks everyone, looks like the message is loud and clear: Don't sell, ATM will have its day in the sun.

Perhaps I might pick up a small parcel to average down a bit.

You originally weren't sure whether to hold or to sell. After some comments by anonymous posters, some of whom are likely biased in favour of this company, you think you might buy? It's a good idea to have a strategy before you buy any share, depending on what your goals and temperament are. Never a good idea to make up strategy on the fly in response to share movements or other peoples comments, you will naturally let your emotions make your decisions and it will cost you money.

[Justin]

I will wait and see the 11/11 sales and meeting on 18/11. By the way average down the cost. Hope the fundamental not change only the some setback of daigou.

[DownTownJr]

I will wait and see the 11/11 sales and meeting on 18/11. By the way average down the cost. Hope the fundamental not change only the some setback of daigou.

I have been flipping back and forth if I should buy today or also wait, i am tossing up with at least waiting until after the US election.

[Biscuit]

I have been flipping back and forth if I should buy today or also wait, i am tossing up with at least waiting until after the US election.

Probably quite a few people thinking to wait until after the election, which likely means you have more competition to buy after the election than before it, doesn't it? The best time to buy, if you going to buy, is when everyone else is afraid and waiting.

[glasszon]

You originally weren't sure whether to hold or to sell. After some comments by anonymous posters, some of whom are likely biased in favour of this company, you think you might buy? It's a good idea to have a strategy before you buy any share, depending on what your goals and temperament are. Never a good idea to make up strategy on the fly in response to share movements or other peoples comments, you will naturally let your emotions make your decisions and it will cost you money.

Don't worry, I am not making a decision in one day, I am looking to do more research before making a decision. It is very difficult to value ATM properly, so either way there will be some judgements involved.

In hindsight it is probably a mistake to buy into ATM when there are many companies at historic lows and are much easier to put a value on.

[Gregnz]

I have been flipping back and forth if I should buy today or also wait, i am tossing up with at least waiting until after the US election.

What impact are you expecting the USA election to have? It’s a given that either Trump or Biden will win. It’s only uncertainty in the financial markets which is driving volatility.
The fact that US futures are heading back in the green with what appears to be a potential Biden landslide would suggest to me that the financial markets were not as dependent on a Trump victory as we perhaps thought.

[Gunner]

Don't worry, I am not making a decision in one day, I am looking to do more research before making a decision. It is very difficult to value ATM properly, so either way there will be some judgements involved.

In hindsight it is probably a mistake to buy into ATM when there are many companies at historic lows and are much easier to put a value on.

Out of interest what are the stocks at historic lows you are referring to?

[macduffy]

In hindsight it is probably a mistake to buy into ATM when there are many companies at historic lows and are much easier to put a value on.

I'd suggest that any company trading at an historic low in this market has a good reason for doing so!

[glasszon]

Out of interest what are the stocks at historic lows you are referring to?

They are mostly oil and gas company, REIT or banks listed on ASX but some of the banks are dual listed on NZX too. An example would be WPL


I'd suggest that any company trading at an historic low in this market has a good reason for doing so!

For travel industries, absolutely, but I think the drop in REIT is overdone in Australia: Melbourne has just lifted the lockdown and with covid getting under control in Australia, the retail industry should really benefit.

[Biscuit]

Don't worry, I am not making a decision in one day, I am looking to do more research before making a decision. It is very difficult to value ATM properly, so either way there will be some judgements involved.

In hindsight it is probably a mistake to buy into ATM when there are many companies at historic lows and are much easier to put a value on.


I'm not sure there are many companies at historic lows, most NZX companies seem to be on fairly high PEs these days. ATM's phenomenal growth rate is slowing, maybe quite a lot. But it's still a good growth company and I am happy to add while there is price weakness.

[RGR367]

.................... It is very difficult to value ATM properly, so either way there will be some judgements involved.

In hindsight it is probably a mistake to buy into ATM when there are many companies at historic lows and are much easier to put a value on.

For your peace of mind, we were buying/valuing ATM in 2015 at around the 50 cents and we're still buying it now at 1420. So what can you learn from that?

And Hee Hah! MET is paid so I got another 6 digit amount to spend more on ATM if and when it falls below my 1420 top up earlier :p

[couta1]

You originally weren't sure whether to hold or to sell. After some comments by anonymous posters, some of whom are likely biased in favour of this company, you think you might buy? It's a good idea to have a strategy before you buy any share, depending on what your goals and temperament are. Never a good idea to make up strategy on the fly in response to share movements or other peoples comments, you will naturally let your emotions make your decisions and it will cost you money. Always a good idea to take notice of those who are willing to share real experience with having made mistakes in the past, if in doubt do nothing.

[clearasmud]

I bought before ATM announced its issues with sales relating to the Melbourne lockdown and Australian export to China is having a hard time at the moment. So now I am thinking whether it's better to deploy the capital to companies with turnaround potential (such as WBC, there's no way the Australian government can let one of the big 4 bank fail and it is trading at ten year low) rather than holding onto ATM when it isn't clear where the bottom is, given the PE of ATM is still very high.
Lets face it Banks are on the back foot with all the challenges they are facing eg 0 rates, rise of digital currencies etc but ATM is a genuine growth Co, not without volitility and risk of course.

[couta1]

I'm not sure there are many companies at historic lows, most NZX companies seem to be on fairly high PEs these days. ATM's phenomenal growth rate is slowing, maybe quite a lot. But it's still a good growth company and I am happy to add while there is price weakness. Your right, i don't see much value elsewhere on the NZX currently, this stock stands out like pee stains in the snow.

[Gunner]

Your right, i don't see much value elsewhere on the NZX currently, this stock stands out like pee stains in the snow.

Its becoming harderto ignore the value that ATM is offering at the moment.



High margin
No debt
$850 million plus cash reserves
Still a growth company
Premium product
Cyclical share price movement (possibly at or near the bottom)


There are some medium to long term concerns with geo politicaland increased competition (but then there a lot of babies that need milk) andshort term with Covid but overall its flashing buy in my books.

[Gunner]

Your right, i don't see much value elsewhere on the NZX currently, this stock stands out like pee stains in the snow.

Its becoming harderto ignore the value that ATM is offering at the moment.



High margin
No debt
$850 million cash reserves
Still a growth company
Premium product
Cyclical share price movement (possibly at or near the bottom)


There are some medium to long term concerns with geo politicaland increased competition (but then there a lot of babies that need milk) andshort term with Covid but overall its flashing buy in my books.

[Biscuit]

Always a good idea to take notice of those who are willing to share real experience with having made mistakes in the past, if in doubt do nothing.

Yes, I think other people's experience is valuable and should be filed away with our own experiences to help make decisions in the future. As an old fart who has lost and made money over many years, I am a great believer in having a strategy that you stick to and not reacting to changes in price on the fly. My natural inclination is buy and hold long term and don't worry too much what you pay for stuff or what other people think it is worth.

[flyinglizard]

Negative Fundamental Facts:

1. China Birth Rate is decreasing since 2018
2. Massive Competitors entered A2 niche market since 2019

2.1 Fonterra has Aptamil Essensis Organic A2 selling 40-45% above ATM A2 price
2.2 Fonterra has Karicare A2 selling 45-50% below ATM A2 price
2.3 Other OZ brands promote their own A2
2.4 Chinese domestic brands promote A2B

[couta1]

Negative Fundamental Facts:

1. China Birth Rate is decreasing since 2018
2. Massive Competitors entered A2 niche market since 2019

2.1 Fonterra has Aptamil Essensis Organic A2 selling 40-45% above ATM A2 price
2.2 Fonterra has Karicare A2 selling 45-50% below ATM A2 price
2.3 Other OZ brands promote their own A2
2.4 Chinese domestic brands promote A2B Lol the competitors have made no difference to date besides its a massive market, are you a holder of this stock or a random down ramper just paying us a visit?

[Waltzing]

Yes its a big chart and if the numbers are good it will be a sky rocket..

Competition is good, means the product sells.

DISC: yes we have held and will again if the numbers are good.

[Gunner]

Negative Fundamental Facts:

1. China Birth Rate is decreasing since 2018 -
2. Massive Competitors entered A2 niche market since 2019

2.1 Fonterra has Aptamil Essensis Organic A2 selling 40-45% above ATM A2 price
2.2 Fonterra has Karicare A2 selling 45-50% below ATM A2 price
2.3 Other OZ brands promote their own A2
2.4 Chinese domestic brands promote A2B



Only 15 million per year then? A bit of a stretch to say that is a concern. Increased competition will always happen. Competition is something to keep an eye on but not a huge concern yet I don't think. A lot of babies in the world.

[winner69]

Only have 2% share in MBS stores and 20% share of CBRE channel

Still plenty of opportunity

[Gregnz]

Good to see quite a bit of resistance on the ASX today, the push to keep it down doesn't seem to be working. I also see shorts have dropped on shortman.com.au . Perhaps the usual November rally is starting to turn the tide.

[Beagle]

Been a truly fascinating study in human psychology these last few weeks just observing this thread.
We've had all the expected phycological behaviors from long term holders and those with a very heavy exposure.
Talk of it being bargain basement is expected and totally misplaced in my opinion and appears to lack any recognition that the growth rate has dramatically slowed.
https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/THE-A2-MILK-COMPANY-LIMIT-11384022/financials/

Forward PE at the current price is 27 and is most certainly not cheap considering the current outlook for the year ahead is for ostensibly no earnings growth !
That's right, the average analyst estimate is for 53 cps up just 1 cent from last year's 52 cents.
This is predicated on a massive second half rebound in sales with the company itself expecting sales of $750m in the first half and a massive 47% more at $1,100m in the second half. WOW - Good luck with that !

The potential for the impact of Covid to linger into the second half and potentially beyond that should be clear enough. Even if this very lofty target for second half sales is met there is still ostensibly no earnings growth in the current year. What should be crystal clear is the growth rate is slowing.

Eps for the last 5 years is FY16 4.4 cps, FY17 12.7 cps, FY18 26cps, FY19 39 cps and FY20 52 cps. This gives a CAGR of just over 60% for the last 5 years, very impressive.
What are the analysts projecting for the next 3 years ? An average growth rate of 15%, very different to what the company has enjoyed in the past and certainly nowhere near as impressive so some PE contraction is definitely to be expected !

If 2H sales don't rebound as strongly as the company is expecting shareholders can expect a strong share price reaction. Its going to be a fascinating year. If there are more excuses coming and more downgrades (downgrades usually come in 3's as Balance alludes too and I agree) there's trouble ahead as sure as night follows day. Lets get real here, the geopolitical and competitive environment has changed in the last couple of years. Its clear to me some people are in complete denial about that.

Its a little sad to note that basic TA like selling when it broke down through the 100 day MA would have got shareholders out at ~ $20.

Disc: Its an extremely rare day I ever buy in a confirmed downtrend, and then only on truly compelling value, (not the case here in my opinion), so I continue to keep my powder dry and will await a confirmed bottom being put into the share price and the emergence of the beginnings of a new uptrend.

Just thought I would update my thoughts. I'll go back to being on holiday from this thread and continue my fascinating study into human psychology. This I am sure will include some strong and possibly derisory rebuttal's to this post.

[couta1]

Been a truly fascinating study in human psychology these last few weeks just observing this thread.
We've had all the expected phycological behaviors from long term holders and those with a very heavy exposure.
Talk of it being bargain basement is expected and totally misplaced in my opinion and appears to lack any recognition that the growth rate has dramatically slowed.
https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/THE-A2-MILK-COMPANY-LIMIT-11384022/financials/

Forward PE at the current price is 27 and is most certainly not cheap considering the current outlook for the year ahead is for ostensibly no earnings growth !
That's right, the average analyst estimate is for 53 cps up just 1 cent from last year's 52 cents.
This is predicated on a massive second half rebound in sales with the company itself expecting sales of $750m in the first half and a massive 47% more at $1,100m in the second half. WOW - Good luck with that !

The potential for the impact of Covid to linger into the second half and potentially beyond that should be clear enough. Even if this very lofty target for second half sales is met there is still ostensibly no earnings growth in the current year. What should be crystal clear is the growth rate is slowing.

Eps for the last 5 years is FY16 4.4 cps, FY17 12.7 cps, FY18 26cps, FY19 39 cps and FY20 52 cps. This gives a CAGR of just over 60% for the last 5 years, very impressive.
What are the analysts projecting for the next 3 years ? An average growth rate of 15%, very different to what the company has enjoyed in the past and certainly nowhere near as impressive so some PE contraction is definitely to be expected !

If 2H sales don't rebound as strongly as the company is expecting shareholders can expect a strong share price reaction. Its going to be a fascinating year. If there are more excuses coming and more downgrades (downgrades usually come in 3's as Balance alludes too and I agree) there's trouble ahead as sure as night follows day. Lets get real here, the geopolitical and competitive environment has changed in the last couple of years. Its clear to me some people are in complete denial about that.

Its a little sad to note that basic TA like selling when it broke down through the 100 day MA would have got shareholders out at ~ $20.

Disc: Its an extremely rare day I ever buy in a confirmed downtrend, and then only on truly compelling value, (not the case here in my opinion), so I continue to keep my powder dry and will await a confirmed bottom being put into the share price and the emergence of the beginnings of a new uptrend.

Just thought I would update my thoughts. I'll go back to being on holiday from this thread and continue my fascinating study into human psychology. This I am sure will include some strong and possibly derisory rebuttal's to this post. I dont see anything different in this update than what you've already posted previously and of course I don't agree with a lot of the assumptions here, a lot of unsubstantiated scare mongering in this post also.

[jonu]

I dont see anything different in this update than what you've already posted previously and of course I don't agree with a lot of the assumptions here, a lot of unsubstantiated scare mongering in this post also.

The Beagle probably has a BUY order at a slightly lower level and is nervous it won't get filled before the probable November recovery.

[Beagle]

Analysts have dialed back their estimates of growth this year and in future years since I last posted over a month ago. I feel someone needed to point this out.

[couta1]

Analysts have dialed back their estimates of growth this year and in future years since I last posted over a month ago. I feel someone needed to point this out. Haha Analysts are just broking company sluts, they all play their little games with this stock by downgrading and upgrading in order to make as much money as possible from weak hands.

[flyinglizard]

Lol the competitors have made no difference to date besides its a massive market, are you a holder of this stock or a random down ramper just paying us a visit?

I do not hold, or will buy ATM/A2M in the future.

The Major risk is Geopolitics. We see China temperately refused to import some wheat, coal, wine and beef products from Australia, discouraged Chinese to study or visit Australia, and imported iron ore from Brazil, rather than Australia. China has more options to hit Australian economy, such as ban on OZ healthy products exporting, dairy. Blackmores, Swisse and Bellamy's Organic... Can you 100% confidently say that A2 is immense to this?



3.0 If China decided to decouple with Australia........

3.1 A2 has been strangely marked as OZ company in Australia, although Chinese customers, Kiwis and A2 company itself all believe it is a NZ company.
3.2 A2 needs to complete acquisition of Mataura Valley Milk as soon as possible to lower the COGS, rebrand itself from Australia.
3.3 Improves its non-daigou sales channel (they already on the right track)
3.4 Try live stream sales in China

4.0 Growth to Matured?

We all know that A2 cannot maintain such a high GAGR in the long run, it will slow down eventually. It must develop new markets to keep growth.

4.1 A2 develops new markets, such as Vietnam? Vietnam attracted large foreign investment and SamSung moved its production line from China to Vietnam, contributing to 28% of Vietnam GDP in 2018. Vietnam has nearly 0.1 billion population, birth rate is above 2.0.

I hope you will have a successful investment journey and A2 is able to get through this pandemic. Please do not get things emotionally, always prepare for the worst scenario.

Mr. B, you have your chance to buy around $10, if bad things happens.

[Beagle]

Funny you mention $10. Was just chatting with a friend earlier today and said that I can foresee 45 cps possibly happening and then the market getting skittish and rerating the PE down to say 22. As you say, if bad things happen, $10 is quite possible.
https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/DANONE-S-A-4634/financials/ Interesting you talk about geopolitical risk being potentially very serious, pretty much how I see it too. ATM very dependent on China, FAR too dependent for my liking.
Interesting comparison with Danone with its widespread food interests and exporting to many different markets, far better diversified and according to average analyst forecasts has very similar growth prospects to ATM in the foreseeable future. Forward PE just 13.9. Hmmm.

Unfortunately I think some people just get too fixated with one stock based on past performance and extrapolate that out and think world domination is inevitable in due course. New people coming on to this forum need to see counter balancing posts from time to time.

I better go back on holiday from this thread before the zealots get too upset ;)

[couta1]

I do not hold, or will buy ATM/A2M in the future.

The Major risk is Geopolitics. We see China temperately refused to import some wheat, coal, wine and beef products from Australia, discouraged Chinese to study or visit Australia, and imported iron ore from Brazil, rather than Australia. China has more options to hit Australian economy, such as ban on OZ healthy products exporting, dairy. Blackmores, Swisse and Bellamy's Organic... Can you 100% confidently say that A2 is immense to this?



3.0 If China decided to decouple with Australia........

3.1 A2 has been strangely marked as OZ company in Australia, although Chinese customers, Kiwis and A2 company itself all believe it is a NZ company.
3.2 A2 needs to complete acquisition of Mataura Valley Milk as soon as possible to lower the COGS, rebrand itself from Australia.
3.3 Improves its non-daigou sales channel (they already on the right track)
3.4 Try live stream sales in China

4.0 Growth to Matured?

We all know that A2 cannot maintain such a high GAGR in the long run, it will slow down eventually. It must develop new markets to keep growth.

4.1 A2 develops new markets, such as Vietnam? Vietnam attracted large foreign investment and SamSung moved its production line from China to Vietnam, contributing to 28% of Vietnam GDP in 2018. Vietnam has nearly 0.1 billion population, birth rate is above 2.0.

I hope you will have a successful investment journey and A2 is able to get through this pandemic. Please do not get things emotionally, always prepare for the worst scenario.

Mr. B, you have your chance to buy around $10, if bad things happens. You might be surprised to learn like quite a few over on HC that A2 is indeed a NZ company not Australian. PS-Are you a computer bot?

[couta1]

Funny you mention $10. Was just chatting with a friend earlier today and said that I can foresee 45 cps possibly happening and then the market getting skittish and rerating the PE down to say 22. As you say, if bad things happen, $10 is quite possible.
https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/DANONE-S-A-4634/financials/ Interesting you talk about geopolitical risk being potentially very serious, pretty much how I see it too. ATM very dependent on China, FAR too dependent for my liking.
Interesting comparison with Danone with its widespread food interests and exporting to many different markets, far better diversified and according to average analyst forecasts has very similar growth prospects to ATM in the foreseeable future. Forward PE just 13.9. Hmmm.

Unfortunately I think some people just get too fixated with one stock based on past performance and extrapolate that out and think world domination is inevitable in due course. New people coming on to this forum need to see counter balancing posts from time to time.

I better go back on holiday from this thread before the zealots get too upset ;) Well all things are possible, even for OCA to go back below $1 and HLG back below $2 but not likely, always best to stick to the knitting pattern you really understand than one where you only know half the stitches aye.

[carrom74]

https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/australian-exporters-to-china-face-6-billion-d-day-20201103-p56b31.html

Thank goodness.No IF

[couta1]

https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/australian-exporters-to-china-face-6-billion-d-day-20201103-p56b31.html

Thank goodness.No IF Sounds unconfirmed at present but just as well babies dont need to chew on rock lobsters to survive.

[Gregnz]

Sounds unconfirmed at present but just as well babies dont need to chew on rock lobsters to survive.

The sight of a baby chewing on a rock lobster 😂

What don’t these people get, what difference does it make what Australian products get banned in China, the last I knew A2 was a New Zealand business and there’s no way our government will do anything to rock the boat with China to the extent our exports are banned.

As I said to someone recently, the day China ban NZ exports to China of infant formula, is the day we as a nation have far more serious consequences to be concerned about, basically the collapse of our export market, and without tourism, we ain’t got anything else to fall back on. Perhaps a case of last one turn out the light again?

[winner69]

Analysts may have ‘dialed back’ their A2 profit expectations and casting doom and gloom all over the place.

But the much respected guru fund managers at Kingfish seem to be very bullish and it looks like they are still buying. ...with the long term in mind.

I base this on: when A2 share price was $20 plus A2 was 15% of the fund — share price down ~30% but A2 still 13% of the fund implies a much increased number of shares.

Last update Kingfish said -

a2 Milk had a recent disappointing trading update where revenue expectations were significantly downgraded. The cause of the forecast reduction in earnings was a sharp inventory destock in the daigou or “surrogate-shopper” channel. This was primarily a result of the resurgence of COVID-19 in Victoria, Australia and travel restrictions.
a2 Milk reacted to this set-back and restored the demand/ supply balance by launching promotions to drive demand while simultaneously restricting supply.

It’s important to remember that the company has moved
into other channels - cross border ecommerce and mother and baby stores (MBS) - which are performing ahead of expectations. Market share in the large and underpenetrated MBS channel accelerated from 2.0% to 2.2%.

Maybe better to heed those who invest real money (not all theirs but they say they put personal cash in) than those who think they are clever running models and coming up with a predetermined outcome.

[alokdhir]

My first post here but I have been reading all meaningful posts of seasoned players here . As a holder of KFL and A2 and FPH as a long term investor I can fully vouch for and in agreement of this post by winner . I came to know some people have big interest in KFL warrants which is basically a call option expiring 12th March 2021 of KFL @ $ 1.51 and have many posts stating 2-5 % good management premium over NAV is justified keeping in view fund manager's exceptional track record . Thus he arrived at intrinsic value of KFL warrant as 22.6 cps keeping in view current NAV of 1.8024 at that time . Two questions he forgot to address ...almost 6 cents dilution of nav due to almost 85% warrant execution much below NAV , 2.5 cents dilution due to performance fees payable after 31st March and then 2 dividends coming out of NAV before a warrant holder gets his first divvy in June end due to smartly timed warrant execution and allotment dates . Thus making real warrant value at the moment around 16 cents IMHO .
Secondly he praised fund manager's excellent investment ideas ...A2 is their top stock in all NZ funds not just KFL ...they have around 4 billion in NZ funds and a2 is in top 3 in all ...means they have great faith in this stock. But here he disregards their research and trying to project that it can reach $ 10 soon . Seems contradictory to me . As if A2 goes to $ 10 then KFL nav will loose almost 6 cents !!
As per me what these experts have at their disposal ...both research tools and access to management makes them in much better position then us people to form more correct opinion about stocks .
All companies goes thru challenging times ...How they cope with that and come on top of that makes them great companies . If Fisher funds have big faith in A2 management doing that then I will prefer to go along with their more informed decision then trying to form my own opinions based on half truths and motivated interests .
A2 has a fight on its hand ..odds are they will get on top of it ...thats why its a great company ..thats why its top investments of Fisher Funds . Give it time to fight

At $ 14 ...upside is more then downside ...so risk rewards favours investing .

Also people with short term trading views should not challenge people with long term perspective .

Its not timing of the market but time in the market which will be more important in the long term !!

Normally A2 makes a 25% up move in November from its recent lows ...and mostly its gap up opening which has the bulk of that move ...so being invested now makes most sense to me to catch that move if that happens ...risk 5% for 25% up move ...rather then trying to catch the bottom exactly .

Hopefully A2 management will not let its investors down ...long term investors should have the last laugh if Management is good !!

[jonu]

DJI up strongly 500+ points on confidence of a Biden win and quick passage of a stimulus package. Add to that the NZD dropped half a cent against the AUD overnight and the Aussies won't be able to hold against the rising tide 2 days in a row.

Has anyone noticed the curious big sell cap that emerges a few cents clear of where the close settles and then disappears the next morning? Currently 40000 to SELL at 1338 that appeared during the close last night. Same thing happens most days at the moment. Shameless manipulation going on from the institutions.

[Waltzing]

"Shameless manipulation going on from the institutions"

its called an auction and its normal in a market...

nothing shameless about it. If you think its manipulation of the market report it to the FMA. Or get the law changed.

[winner69]

Been a truly fascinating study in human psychology these last few weeks just observing this thread.

We've had all the expected phycological behaviors from long term holders and those with a very heavy exposure.
Talk of it being bargain basement is expected and totally misplaced in my opinion and appears to lack any recognition that the growth rate has dramatically slowed.
.

Maybe the guys at Kingfish need a bit pyschological help as well

[BlackPeter]

New ATM holder down nearly 30% already, am I the only one who's thinking about bailing out and invest in another stock? Seems like no matter what, ATM just goes down every day.

Nobody can tell you how the future looks. Obviously - if you assume ATM is crashing into the ground, then you should sell. However - buying dear and selling cheap is not normally a good strategy if you want to increase your capital :):

Discl: holding and using the current SP weakness to accumulate;

[Beagle]

Maybe the guys at Kingfish need a bit pyschological help as well
Some fresh perspective possibly wouldn't go amiss. For what its worth off the quarterly performance reports to 30/9/20 they have outperformed the NZX50 after fees by 2.5% per annum average over the last three years, (have more than earned their performance fee so fair enough), whereas the team at Barramundi have outperformed the ASX by an outstanding 8.9% annual average after fees, (explains why the shares are trading at a premium to NTA,... shareholders are recognizing the true expertise there), and Marlin have achieved market outperformance of a remarkable 9.7% per annum after fees over the same timeframe. Who would you rather invest with ;)

[winner69]

Some fresh perspective possibly wouldn't go amiss. For what its worth off the quarterly performance reports to 30/9/20 they have outperformed the NZX50 after fees by 2.5% per annum average over the last three years, (have more than earned their performance fee so fair enough), whereas the team at Barramundi have outperformed the ASX by an outstanding 8.9% annual average after fees, (explains why the shares are trading at a premium to NTA,... shareholders are recognizing the true expertise there), and Marlin have achieved market outperformance of a remarkable 9.7% per annum after fees over the same timeframe. Who would you rather invest with ;)

Jeez - all I was doing was comparing Kingfish managers to those who you thiink need help with their love affair of A2

No doubt Kingfish will continue to do well into the future - specially now they have continued to build up their A2 holding and spent roughly (back of envelope sum) $15m buying them over the last few months doing so

I have no problem with them doing that with my money and are glad they are doing so --- with the future in mind

[Beagle]

Jeez - all I was doing was comparing Kingfish managers to those who you thiink need help with their love affair of A2

No doubt Kingfish will continue to do well into the future - specially now they have continued to build up their A2 holding and spent roughly (back of envelope sum) $15m buying them over the last few months doing so

I have no problem with them doing that with my money and are glad they are doing so --- with the future in mind

I have quite a few Kingfish Warrants exercisable on 12 March 2021. We should know if there's a second official company downgrade for ATM before then and its impact on KFL's portfolio. I'm definitely back on holiday now from this thread...seems nothing I say in this thread is appreciated by anyone. I don't need to be told to **** off again...I'm not deaf.

[flyinglizard]

Jeez - all I was doing was comparing Kingfish managers to those who you thiink need help with their love affair of A2

No doubt Kingfish will continue to do well into the future - specially now they have continued to build up their A2 holding and spent roughly (back of envelope sum) $15m buying them over the last few months doing so

I have no problem with them doing that with my money and are glad they are doing so --- with the future in mind

Fisher Fund screwed up their VGL holdings, looking at their previous buying price and volume. What a disaster!

[couta1]

I have quite a few Kingfish Warrants exercisable on 12 March 2021. We should know if there's a second official company downgrade for ATM before then and its impact on KFL's portfolio. I'm definitely back on holiday now from this thread...seems nothing I say in this thread is appreciated by anyone. I don't need to be told to **** off again...I'm not deaf. Come back and have a bark in a years time and if you're a really good boy we will add some A2 to your dog roll.

[bull....]

Disappearing daigou pull rug from Bubs and Nuchev


The lack of daigou supply may lead to consumers switching to more readily available domestic brands,'' he said.
There are also fears that Chinese consumers ''appear to be increasingly gravitating towards domestic brands''.

https://www.afr.com/companies/retail/disappearing-daigou-pull-rug-from-bubs-and-nuchev-20201102-p56avz

[couta1]

DJI up strongly 500+ points on confidence of a Biden win and quick passage of a stimulus package. Add to that the NZD dropped half a cent against the AUD overnight and the Aussies won't be able to hold against the rising tide 2 days in a row.

Has anyone noticed the curious big sell cap that emerges a few cents clear of where the close settles and then disappears the next morning? Currently 40000 to SELL at 1338 that appeared during the close last night. Same thing happens most days at the moment. Shameless manipulation going on from the institutions. Yep and thats what the naysayers just don't get, this latest sp drop in the main has been caused by the insto manipulators on purpose for their own purposes as it has many times before.

[couta1]

Disappearing daigou pull rug from Bubs and Nuchev


The lack of daigou supply may lead to consumers switching to more readily available domestic brands,'' he said.
There are also fears that Chinese consumers ''appear to be increasingly gravitating towards domestic brands''.

https://www.afr.com/companies/retail/disappearing-daigou-pull-rug-from-bubs-and-nuchev-20201102-p56avz


Old news now, you need to follow HC to keep up with the play bull, Bubs has been too slow in developing deeper relationship with the Professional Daigous unlike A2, that's right bull there are actually 2 different groups of Daigous.

[Gregnz]

Corporate Daigous are still powering along on Alibaba.

I believe the retail Daigou were mainly affected, basically students looking for extra cash and housewives.

I don’t think for a minute that A2 were relying on a bunch of students and housewives to build their business, they were basically cream on top.

[couta1]

Corporate Daigous are still powering along on Alibaba.

I believe the retail Daigou were mainly affected, basically students looking for extra cash and housewives.

I don’t think for a minute that A2 were relying on a bunch of students and housewives to build their business, they were basically cream on top. Exactly but all the naysayers simply don't do their research, they aren't immersed in this stock like some of us are so dont study the company from every angle.

[bull....]

Exactly but all the naysayers simply don't do their research, they aren't immersed in this stock like some of us are so dont study the company from every angle.

lol bull well researched got out at the top and short , me making lots moola ... well researched

[Gerald]

Interesting to note that the current S&P 500 PE is around 33, vs a2 at around 27. I wonder which has the better earning growth potential?

Regarding Danone Beagle, i'm not sure you can make the comparison with a company has seen PE expand to over 17 by seeing its EPS reduce 7% in 2018, and 19% in 2019. I hope you brought a large parcel in April 2009 to enjoy your magnificant 36% capital appreciation during an unstopable bull market.

Always good the hear contrary opinions though.

[Master98]

bought first lot at 15.06, start accumulating when sp under 14, now average sp sit at 14.46, happy to hold long term for this high quality company, although short term pain because covid.

[couta1]

lol bull well researched got out at the top and short , me making lots moola ... well researched Lol I'm not talking about studying charts and shorting for trading purposes.

[Gregnz]

I guess when you trade and short like that, you make lots of moola but also pay lots of tax. Thanks for doing your bit to prop up the economy.

Meanwhile I prefer just to sit on my investments long term, and avoid any tax implications as I won’t be classed as a trader.

[Ggcc]

I guess when you trade and short like that, you make lots of moola but also pay lots of tax. Thanks for doing your bit to prop up the economy.

Meanwhile I prefer just to sit on my investments long term, and avoid any tax implications as I won’t be classed as a trader.
Tax is not a bad thing and I would do it to if I knew I would do well, but since I have no idea when to sell or buy trading I stay out and hope for the longterm gain

[Gregnz]

Tax is not a bad thing and I would do it to if I knew I would do well, but since I have no idea when to sell or buy trading I stay out and hope for the longterm gain

Well yes that too, but I see friends and colleagues buying and selling, trying to pick the top and bottom for each investment, potentially making themselves liable for additional tax, meanwhile because I don’t really know what I’m doing I just invest in the companies I think have good long term potential and over the course of the same investment timeframe, my returns appear to be higher as a % by a considerable margin.
Some investments I saw them sell due to Covid while I sat on my hands, and they didn’t buy back in early enough to miss the gains post Covid.
I still think the best strategy for me is to buy and hold.

[Beagle]

Two questions he forgot to address ...almost 6 cents dilution of nav due to almost 85% warrant execution much below NAV , 2.5 cents dilution due to performance fees payable after 31st March and then 2 dividends coming out of NAV before a warrant holder gets his first divvy in June end due to smartly timed warrant execution and allotment dates . Thus making real warrant value at the moment around 16 cents IMHO . alokdhir

Welcome to the forum and thank you for your very useful post. I did not ignore the NAV dilution resulting from the warrant exercise, (probably at $1.51) with my warrant calculation, I assumed an 83% uptake. Worth noting that the performance fees earned are accrued and taken into account with the weekly reporting of KFL's NAV. I looked into the full terms of the warrants this morning and I appreciate you pointing out the dividend timing. Warrants are exercisable as you quite rightly point out on 12 March 2021 and last year the shares went ex dividend for the March dividend on 13 March so all appears okay until one looks at the fine print and finds that the new shares to be issued upon warrant exercise won't be issued until 17/03/21 so you are right about there being two more dividends before warrant holders who elect to exercise receive any.
I will update my valuation in the Kingfish thread this week once they announce their updated NTA on Thursday.
Thanks again for your informative and useful first post. I agree KFL's market outperformance after fees warrants (excuse the pun), a modest premium to NTA.
I think they have jumped the gun with buying ATM, too early.

[couta1]

Well yes that too, but I see friends and colleagues buying and selling, trying to pick the top and bottom for each investment, potentially making themselves liable for additional tax, meanwhile because I don’t really know what I’m doing I just invest in the companies I think have good long term potential and over the course of the same investment timeframe, my returns appear to be higher as a % by a considerable margin.
Some investments I saw them sell due to Covid while I sat on my hands, and they didn’t buy back in early enough to miss the gains post Covid.
I still think the best strategy for me is to buy and hold. Those that bought in early in A2 and other companies like XRO and just held would have done hugely better than traders but then trading can be a job and fun so horses for courses. PS- I'm applying a buy and hold forever strategy to my PAZ holding.

[alokdhir]

Welcome to the forum and thank you for your very useful post. I did not ignore the NAV dilution resulting from the warrant exercise, (probably at $1.51) with my warrant calculation, I assumed an 83% uptake. Worth noting that the performance fees earned are accrued and taken into account with the weekly reporting of KFL's NAV. I looked into the full terms of the warrants this morning and I appreciate you pointing out the dividend timing. Warrants are exercisable as you quite rightly point out on 12 March 2021 and last year the shares went ex dividend for the March dividend on 13 March so all appears okay until one looks at the fine print and finds that the new shares to be issued upon warrant exercise won't be issued until 17/03/21 so you are right about there being two more dividends before warrant holders who elect to exercise receive any.
I will update my valuation in the Kingfish thread this week once they announce their updated NTA on Thursday.
Thanks again for your informative and useful first post. I agree KFL's market outperformance after fees warrants (excuse the pun), a modest premium to NTA.
Thanks for your encouragement .
My main points remain the same . KFL fund managers doing a great job ..by default A2 good investment as its one of their main picks . Secondly being participant in last 3 warrants issues of KFL ..I have observed that KFL trades at deep discount just before ( ie 60-15 days ) exercise date ...maybe due to people already discounting dilution and secondly due to arbitrage available in selling KFL and buying warrants . Many warrant holders dont have the funds to exercise but they were just playing with the call option which starts loosing time value near the exercise date . Last time it was as deep at 13 % near the end . Current premium to Nav is just retail exuberance ...wont last IMHO . Will be happy to know your insights too . I am very happy long term holder of KFL and think they have done very well in the last 3 years . Fisher funds are best experts of NZ markets ...my experience and opinion !

[couta1]

Thanks for your encouragement .
My main points remain the same . KFL fund managers doing a great job ..by default A2 good investment as its one of their main picks . Secondly being participant in last 3 warrants issues of KFL ..I have observed that KFL trades at deep discount just before ( ie 60-15 days ) exercise date ...maybe due to people already discounting dilution and secondly due to arbitrage available in selling KFL and buying warrants . Many warrant holders dont have the funds to exercise but they were just playing with the call option which starts loosing time value near the exercise date . Last time it was as deep at 13 % near the end . Current premium to Nav is just retail exuberance ...wont last IMHO . Will be happy to know your insights too . I am very happy long term holder of KFL and think they have done very well in the last 3 years . Fisher funds are best experts of NZ markets ...my experience and opinion ! Wrong thread buddy.

[alokdhir]

Wrong thread buddy.

Have mentioned ATM also in the two part reply please . Was justifying why A2 is good investment if KFL is a good investment as originally stated by Winner69 in the morning !!

[Snow Leopard]

Have mentioned ATM also in the two part reply please . Was justifying why A2 is good investment if KFL is a good investment as originally stated by Winner69 in the morning !!

Just ignore him. He is grumpy because A2 is going down and he is being continuously reminded of it.

Mind you I am not exactly overjoyed by the trend myself :D

[couta1]

Just ignore him. He is grumpy because A2 is going down and he is being continuously reminded of it.

Mind you I am not exactly overjoyed by the trend myself :D No not grumpy at all, Beagles post was all about KFL and nothing about A2.

[bull....]

a2 will get sold off more if biden wins cause us dollar will tank nzd race higher

[couta1]

Well I have to give credit to the insto's they are master manipulators, a year ago to the day the sp drop % from its high is almost a mirror image of what it is today, retail punters like lambs to the slaughter.

[Beagle]

Thanks for your encouragement .
My main points remain the same . KFL fund managers doing a great job ..by default A2 good investment as its one of their main picks . Secondly being participant in last 3 warrants issues of KFL ..I have observed that KFL trades at deep discount just before ( ie 60-15 days ) exercise date ...maybe due to people already discounting dilution and secondly due to arbitrage available in selling KFL and buying warrants . Many warrant holders dont have the funds to exercise but they were just playing with the call option which starts loosing time value near the exercise date . Last time it was as deep at 13 % near the end . Current premium to Nav is just retail exuberance ...wont last IMHO . Will be happy to know your insights too . I am very happy long term holder of KFL and think they have done very well in the last 3 years . Fisher funds are best experts of NZ markets ...my experience and opinion !

Yes the last warrant exercise and discount to diluted NTA created a very, very interesting opportunity for those who had the funds to deploy.
BRM trading at an unprecedented 16% premium to NTA...MLN and KFL also at quite a premium. I can't help wondering, (given the incredibly low level of interest rates and many shares not paying dividends this year) if its retired folks chasing the reliability of the 8% PIE tax free income ?

KFL have done well, no argument with that but sheeting this back on topic ATM shares touched a low of $12.19 this time last year (before anyone had even heard of Covid), and I think the outlook now is considerably more cloudy and challenging, especially on the geopolitical front. A test of that level wouldn't surprise me in the slightest, time will tell.
My reservation about KFL is the concentration of their portfolio compared to the other two, (hence my comment about perhaps a fresh perspective being needed earlier today), which are far better diversified. Perhaps we should chat some more about that in the appropriate thread.

[couta1]

Yes the last warrant exercise and discount to NTA created a very, very interesting opportunity for those who had the funds to deploy.
BRM trading at an unprecedented 16% premium to NTA...MLN and KFL also at quite a premium. I can't help wondering, (given the incredibly low level of interest rates and many shares not paying dividends this year) if its retired folks chasing the reliability of the 8% PIE tax free income ?
KFL have done well, no argument with that but sheeting this back on topic ATM shares touched at low of $12.19 this time last year (before anyone had even heard of Covid), and I think the outlook now is considerably more cloudy and challenging, especially on the geopolitical front. A test of that level wouldn't surprise me in the slightest, time will tell.
My reservation about KFL is the concentration of their portfolio compared to the other two which are far better diversified. Perhaps we should chat some more about that in the appropriate thread. Take your KFL discussion to the appropriate thread please, don't mix your A2 down ramping in to justify the post.

[Beagle]

No not grumpy at all, Beagles post was all about KFL and nothing about A2.

Fixed that especially for you mate. Chill out buddy.

[causecelebre]

Deleted. Sorry double post

[causecelebre]

Excellent got filled at 14.21 and 14.06. Last hour has seen a a lot crossing the spread from .06 . Is going to be hard to break resistance at 14 i think

[couta1]

a2 will get sold off more if biden wins cause us dollar will tank nzd race higher Have any other members got this Troll on ignore? He's close to earning the distinctive honor of being the first one in 7 yrs to go on ignore by me.

[bull....]

bidens ahead in florida , key swing state . close though.

[bull....]

bidens ahead in 4 swings at the moment early days though . probably worth a tank at some stage in a2 if he wins

[couta1]

Have any other members got this Troll on ignore? He's close to earning the distinctive honor of being the first one in 7 yrs to go on ignore by me. He's now the one and only on my ignore list, goodbye Troll.

[causecelebre]

Excellent got filled at 14.21 and 14.06. Last hour has seen a a lot crossing the spread from .06 . Is going to be hard to break resistance at 14 i think

Well that didn't age well haha

[Lion_graf]

Here I am still trying to catch the falling knife. US stocks up and yet a2 still in freefall

[Biscuit]

bidens ahead in florida , key swing state . close though.

Holy heck, Forida is going down to the wire. Could be a repeat of 2000 :ohmy:

[bull....]

Holy heck, Forida is going down to the wire. Could be a repeat of 2000 :ohmy:

yea super close probably mean if its this close trump if he loses will call in the lawyers and we will have a contested election maybe

[bull....]

He's now the one and only on my ignore list, goodbye Troll.

you really need to get up to speed with what moves stocks at the moment its the us election , nzd etc that will move a2 short term

[Sideshow Bob]

There she blows!

<$14.00

[Ggcc]

There she blows!

<$14.00
And I just bought a few more

[see weed]

yippy yi ya. Just got some at 13.96 at 2.06pm :D .

[Justin]

got some at 14 next order at 13

[MauroNZ]

yippy yi ya. Just got some at 13.96 at 2.06pm :D .

Lucky you mine one was close and now a bit far.

[causecelebre]

Phew got my last fill @ 13.97 a little earlier

[Cyclical]

It's worth noting that from current levels, it would be a tidy 50% gain to get back to recent highs. I don't know about you lot, but that to me looks pretty attractive. I think it's a fair bet it would be back to that level at some point. Even if it's a year or two away, that's still a great return. Also, people talk about 13 bucks...on the face of it, that may seem like a big drop, but if you were to have bought some OCA shares, say at $1.40 and they dropped down to $1.30, would it be that upsetting? It's only about a 7% drop. To summarise, way more upside potential than there is downside, IMHO, especially in today's market.

Disc...got a few and happily accumulating at these levels.

[Balance]

It's worth noting that from current levels, it would be a tidy 50% gain to get back to recent highs. I don't know about you lot, but that to me looks pretty attractive. I think it's a fair bet it would be back to that level at some point. Even if it's a year or two away, that's still a great return. Also, people talk about 13 bucks...on the face of it, that may seem like a big drop, but if you were to have bought some OCA shares, say at $1.40 and they dropped down to $1.30, would it be that upsetting? It's only about a 7% drop. To summarise, way more upside potential than there is downside, IMHO, especially in today's market.

Disc...got a few and happily accumulating at these levels.

If there's another downgrade as I think is a strong possibility, you could see $9 to $10 on the sp.

Worth thinking about as a possibility.

[couta1]

If there's another downgrade as I think is a strong possibility, you could see $9 to $10 on the sp.

Worth thinking about as a possibility. And there is actually more chance of you being wrong than that occurring in this instance given the history of this company.

[alokdhir]

If there's another downgrade as I think is a strong possibility, you could see $9 to $10 on the sp.

Worth thinking about as a possibility.

Anything is possible in this world . But we plan for most likely scenario ...News out on 18th Nov will decide further short term trend of ATM ...if news is better then what markets thinking then $ 17.50 more likely in a hurry ...if still struggling to over come logistics issues etc then more downside possible but that should be further opportunity to accumulate as over all company is great and management good with superb product and reputation . Eventually it will be back on track to scale new highs ...just dont know in current fiscal or next . IMHO

First signs of good news coming will be it stops making new lows and recovers small ground ...maybe till $ 15 just before AGM ...Dont know how but some market participants seem to know in advance what's coming and they are the first movers ...like from 21.70 to 18 before the profit warning update ...So in most cases follow the market positioning just before the big event for having a good idea of the further short term trend ...

[Gregnz]

I posted this on HC to try and remove some fuel from the trolls and downrampers there. Thinking it might be of interest to others here as fellow
kiwi investors, it’s the latest update from A2 , snapshot 29th Oct.

Some of you have probably already read it, but impressive to see China label revenue up 77% in July & August this year, slide #15 of attachment.

Sort of proves the point many of us have had, that Chinese babies didn’t just stop drinking infant formula for the past 10 months during Covid when Daigou was limited, they just bought it locally.

You can view the attachment here, it’s from the A2 company files:

https://thea2milkcompany.com/wp-content/uploads/Select-Conference-v6.pdf

[causecelebre]

I posted this on HC to try and remove some fuel from the trolls and downrampers there. Thinking it might be of interest to others here as fellow
kiwi investors, it’s the latest update from A2 , snapshot 29th Oct.

Some of you have probably already read it, but impressive to see China label revenue up 77% in July & August this year, slide #15 of attachment.

Sort of proves the point many of us have had, that Chinese babies didn’t just stop drinking infant formula for the past 10 months during Covid when Daigou was limited, they just bought it locally.

You can view the attachment here, it’s from the A2 company files:

https://thea2milkcompany.com/wp-content/uploads/Select-Conference-v6.pdf

Exactly, as a parent two pre-school kids once you have found a formula that works for your kid you will stick to it. Babies can be very sensitive to diet changes, not just in terms of colic, etc but extends to skin conditions and general happiness. We will go to all sorts of lengths to get what we know works.

[Beagle]

Who knows what the future holds. They will either do the $1,100m in the second half and the shares will recover or they won't and the degree by which they undershoot will be the degree by which the shares are punished, time will tell. If they do more than $1,100m in the second half I'd say its party time and Coutts will be out of jail.

I was just thinking this morning....there could be a real baby boom coming up. All these lockdown's and people having nothing much to do other than watch T.V. surf the internet and do the business with their partners.

[alokdhir]

Who knows what the future holds. They will either do the $1,100m in the second half and the shares will recover or they won't and the degree by which they undershoot will be the degree by which the shares are punished, time will tell. If they do more than $1,100m in the second half I'd say its party time and Coutts will be out of jail.

I was just thinking this morning....there could be a real baby boom coming up. All these lockdown's and people having nothing much to do other than watch T.V. surf the internet and do the business with their partners.

First half sales are not yet reported ...who knows they beat 775 mil guidance ...so no need do 1.1 billion next half ...who knows 11/11 sales far exceed expectations ...part of first half !! So as stated before ...will know for surely on 18th Nov ...it can be short term lottery !!!

[Greekwatchdog]

For Bars Report

Proprietary Channel Checking in China

OUTPERFORM
We recently visited 34 stores in China, interviewing sales reps & store managers, analysing a2's shelf presence, pricing, and
the perception of New Zealand sourced infant formula. We complemented this with a proprietary online survey, with 105
responses from end customers. Travel restrictions meant the channel checks were undertaken by our colleagues in Hong
Kong. Our findings provide confidence that The a2 Milk Company (ATM) is performing well in the key offline channel. It also
supports our view that the recent daigou-linked downgrade is a temporary issue, particularly as channel mix readjusts. After
recent underperformance, ATM is trading at a one year forward PE of ~24x (~21x adjusted for cash and ~19x when also
adjusted for US losses) — attractive against any benchmark.
Three key take-aways from our proprietary channel checks
Other notable points of interest
N E W Z E A L A N D E Q U I T Y R E S E A RC H F O O D, B E V S , & AG R I DA I R Y N U T R I T I O N C O M PA N Y
5 N OV E M B E R 2 0 2 0
NZX Code ATM
Share price NZ$14.35
Target price NZ$23.00
Risk rating High
Issued shares 736.5m
Market cap NZ$10,568m
Avg daily turnover 782.4k (NZ$13,395k)
Financials: Jun/ 20A 21E 22E 23E
NPAT* (NZ$m) 385.8 406.7 498.2 573.1
EPS* (NZc) 52.1 54.9 67.3 77.4
EPS growth* (%) 34.4 5.4 22.5 15.0
DPS (NZc) 0.0 0.0 0.0 23.2
Imputation (%) 100 100 100 100
*Based on normalised profits
Valuation (x) 20A 21E 22E 23E
PE 27.5 26.1 21.3 18.5
EV/EBIT 17.7 16.2 13.1 11.4
EV/EBITDA 17.5 16.0 12.9 11.2
Price / NTA 9.4 7.0 5.3 4.2
Cash div yld (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.6
Gross div yld (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.2
Very high recognition that a2 Platinum is New Zealand sourced. 91% of Mother & Baby Store (MBS) personnel we spoke to
indicated that a2 is New Zealand sourced, with the balance citing New Zealand and Australia. This is particularly important given
recent escalating geopolitical tension between China and Australia.
Strong performance for ATM across our channel checks, with results from our MBS visits surprisingly the strongest. This
includes a2 ranking #1 brand in our MBS interviews, with a2 the most consistently named brand in the “top sellers”. This is
encouraging given we view the offline channel as the key avenue of growth for ATM.
New Zealand/foreign still ranking well, albeit observable lift in domestic: New Zealand still tops the list for IF quality
perception (by a large margin), however, MBS personnel noted some change in consumer behaviour in favour of domestic brands.
Signs of discipline from ATM. With well controlled pricing and what appears to be a targeted marketing and investment approach.
Predominant resistance against buying a2 was price (~18% of total responses in both our offline and online surveys).
Category showing resilience; 86% of respondents said they would not change their IF brand of choice if their income declined.
No observable inventory turn issues. With expiry dates fresh and ATM’s new lid at all stores visited.

[sb9]

Thanks for that Greekwatchdog, very bullish report.

[couta1]

Thanks for that Greekwatchdog, very bullish report. Now that ain't no bull....

[bull....]

For Bars Report

Proprietary Channel Checking in China

OUTPERFORM
We recently visited 34 stores in China, interviewing sales reps & store managers, analysing a2's shelf presence, pricing, and
the perception of New Zealand sourced infant formula. We complemented this with a proprietary online survey, with 105
responses from end customers. Travel restrictions meant the channel checks were undertaken by our colleagues in Hong
Kong. Our findings provide confidence that The a2 Milk Company (ATM) is performing well in the key offline channel. It also
supports our view that the recent daigou-linked downgrade is a temporary issue, particularly as channel mix readjusts. After
recent underperformance, ATM is trading at a one year forward PE of ~24x (~21x adjusted for cash and ~19x when also
adjusted for US losses) — attractive against any benchmark.
Three key take-aways from our proprietary channel checks
Other notable points of interest
N E W Z E A L A N D E Q U I T Y R E S E A RC H F O O D, B E V S , & AG R I DA I R Y N U T R I T I O N C O M PA N Y
5 N OV E M B E R 2 0 2 0
NZX Code ATM
Share price NZ$14.35
Target price NZ$23.00
Risk rating High
Issued shares 736.5m
Market cap NZ$10,568m
Avg daily turnover 782.4k (NZ$13,395k)
Financials: Jun/ 20A 21E 22E 23E
NPAT* (NZ$m) 385.8 406.7 498.2 573.1
EPS* (NZc) 52.1 54.9 67.3 77.4
EPS growth* (%) 34.4 5.4 22.5 15.0
DPS (NZc) 0.0 0.0 0.0 23.2
Imputation (%) 100 100 100 100
*Based on normalised profits
Valuation (x) 20A 21E 22E 23E
PE 27.5 26.1 21.3 18.5
EV/EBIT 17.7 16.2 13.1 11.4
EV/EBITDA 17.5 16.0 12.9 11.2
Price / NTA 9.4 7.0 5.3 4.2
Cash div yld (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.6
Gross div yld (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.2
Very high recognition that a2 Platinum is New Zealand sourced. 91% of Mother & Baby Store (MBS) personnel we spoke to
indicated that a2 is New Zealand sourced, with the balance citing New Zealand and Australia. This is particularly important given
recent escalating geopolitical tension between China and Australia.
Strong performance for ATM across our channel checks, with results from our MBS visits surprisingly the strongest. This
includes a2 ranking #1 brand in our MBS interviews, with a2 the most consistently named brand in the “top sellers”. This is
encouraging given we view the offline channel as the key avenue of growth for ATM.
New Zealand/foreign still ranking well, albeit observable lift in domestic: New Zealand still tops the list for IF quality
perception (by a large margin), however, MBS personnel noted some change in consumer behaviour in favour of domestic brands.
Signs of discipline from ATM. With well controlled pricing and what appears to be a targeted marketing and investment approach.
Predominant resistance against buying a2 was price (~18% of total responses in both our offline and online surveys).
Category showing resilience; 86% of respondents said they would not change their IF brand of choice if their income declined.
No observable inventory turn issues. With expiry dates fresh and ATM’s new lid at all stores visited.

forbar notes signs just as the afr article did about bubs noticing a shift ( how big?) to local brands

[Gunner]

forbar notes signs just as the afr article did about bubs noticing a shift ( how big?) to local brands

I think you under estimate how large the Chinese population is.

[couta1]

UBS target of $22.50, this one at $23 and my own at $25, let's take the $23.50 average and be done with it. :cool:

[couta1]

I think you under estimate how large the Chinese population is. He underestimates a lot of things on purpose to benefit his ramping motives.

[Justin]

I saw some Chinese social platforms discuss Chinese domestic infant formulas, it’s actually pricier than infant formula produced overseas, a premium domestic brand can cost around 400 rmb per can and brands like a2 English label are around 200 rmb per can. Why there are trend amongst local parents that want to shift to domestic because they worry about COVID situation worse in overseas and worried about overseas Infant formula may contain COVID virus.

So if New Zealand can control COVID and maintain COVID free, it’s good for a2.
if New Zealand government can maintain the relationship with China. It’s good for a2 as well.

[Gunner]

He underestimates a lot of things on purpose to benefit his ramping motives.

He must genuinely believe what he says, otherwise he is wasting his time if he thinks he can any effect on its share price through this platform

[Waltzing]

Does the US consumer believe in the product as the China market does. We have had contact with Bio Chem personal on the subject of proteins in milk products.

[dreamcatcher]

In response by Bull mentioning Bubs earlier. Expecting Bub's supply chain to be changing shortly with them purchasing a factory in Beihai - China (worlds fastest growing city) to manufacture IF from Australian product eliminating Daigou traders............

[Gregnz]

Does the US consumer believe in the product as the China market does. We have had contact with Bio Chem personal on the subject of proteins in milk products.

What I do know is that milk and dairy in the USA tastes like crap. Might be personal preference but I’m certainly not a fan of orange cheese which tastes like plastic, or milk that tastes like water.

My gut says A2 will make significant in roads in the USA, another big opportunity.

[Lion_graf]

UBS target of $22.50, this one at $23 and my own at $25, let's take the $23.50 average and be done with it. :cool:

And morning star has valued it at 16.30...
Gives you an avg of $21.95

[winner69]

Like this bit from Forbar:

ATM is trading at a one year forward PE of ~24x (~21x adjusted for cash and ~19x when also adjusted for US losses) — attractive against any benchmark.

Attractive ...and cheap

[bull....]

the market is right its only worth as much as the market says , broker reports are what they are and are adjusted all the time . probably down in time

[winner69]

the market is right its only worth as much as the market says , broker reports are what they are and are adjusted all the time . probably down in time

Guru analysts about as good as pollsters

[couta1]

He must genuinely believe what he says, otherwise he is wasting his time if he thinks he can any effect on its share price through this platform Maybe, but a deluded sense of self importance can blind one to reality, unless you are an insto then your influence on the sp of this stock is zilch other than to shake a few newbies and fearful holders out.

[Biscuit]

the market is right its only worth as much as the market says , broker reports are what they are and are adjusted all the time . probably down in time

Market thought it was worth $21 a few weeks ago, now reckons its worth $14. Can't have been right both times.

[Gregnz]

Market thought it was worth $21 a few weeks ago, now reckons its worth $14. Can't have been right both times.

Funny thing this sharemarket, when things are on sale people run for the hills and dump their stock, but when things are selling at a hefty premium and high P/E people are lapping it up and buying up large. (FOMO drives most of the sharemarket I reckon, not fundamentals or technical analysis)
I only shop at sales.

[couta1]

Market thought it was worth $21 a few weeks ago, now reckons its worth $14. Can't have been right both times. Most of the time you can trust the market to be right about as much as a bull in a China shop, currently only 13% of the shareholder base of this stock are setting the price, the other 87% are either sitting back doing nothing or accumulating off the 13%.

[Biscuit]

I only shop at sales.

You sound like my wife. I tell her: "only buy it if you actually need it and don't worry about the price. That way, saves you money in the long run and much less stuff to dump/hoard".

[couta1]

You sound like my wife. I tell her: "only buy it if you actually need it and don't worry about the price. That way, saves you money in the long run and much less stuff to dump/hoard". My wife earns her own money and buys what she wants, when I've tried to interfere its always ended badly so I've learnt to shut up in the main. PS-She always buys A2 milk though so that's good.

[Gregnz]

You sound like my wife. I tell her: "only buy it if you actually need it and don't worry about the price. That way, saves you money in the long run and much less stuff to dump/hoard".

To be honest, I do both, only buy what I need and only buy on sale. :t_up:

[bull....]

Market thought it was worth $21 a few weeks ago, now reckons its worth $14. Can't have been right both times.

in between those times new information came out , so the price adjusts accordingly. so yes it can be right both times

[bull....]

Maybe, but a deluded sense of self importance can blind one to reality, unless you are an insto then your influence on the sp of this stock is zilch other than to shake a few newbies and fearful holders out.

the reality is the price is $14 so no delusion on my part

[Dotbond]

So from my limited knowledge. If there are approx 800 million shares in ATM and the company has about $854 million in the bank account then with a PE of 1.0 the price per share would be about $1 ea ?
Cheers Trev

[Biscuit]

So from my limited knowledge. If there are approx 800 million shares in ATM and the company has about $854 million in the bank account then with a PE of 1.0 the price per share would be about $1 ea ?
Cheers Trev

At a PE (price to earnings ratio) of 1, the share price would equal the company profit/number of shares. Would have nothing to do with the money in the bank.

[Dotbond]

At a PE (price to earnings ratio) of 1, the share price would equal the company profit/number of shares. Would have nothing to do with the money in the bank.
And that would be the profit of the current financial year.

[Biscuit]

And that would be the profit of the current financial year.

You can look at the last announced profit or the forecast profit. You just need to be clear what you are looking at.