ATM - A2 Milk Corporation Limited

[Dotbond]

And the sharemarket seems to price in the future.
Thanks for the explanation Biscuit.

[Gregnz]

I'm far from an expert when interpreting stock shorting. Anyone with knowledge, I noticed yesterday short positions for A2 were down on shortman.com.au, I seem to recall by -0.05, not a lot, but I've noticed today that while the share price has increased the number of short positions has also increased.

Someone mentioned to me that this could be traders covering their short positions as they said they would expect an increase in short positions if traders were looking to cover?

So question being, is this good movement with the share price increasing or should we be expecting to see shorts drop off significantly?
I'm trying to decide if I should pull the trigger on another batch of shares to add to the ones I hold if its possible this is the start of the usual November rally.

[Leftfield]

Well, well..... seems the claim by some that "Bad News (for ATM) always comes in threes" has been proved wrong today.

Good news for ATM that SML have settled the Pokeno dispute (and the effect is 'not material.')

Here's the release. (https://www.nzx.com/announcements/362766)

[DownTownJr]

Well, well..... seems the claim by some that "Bad News (for ATM) always comes in threes" has been proved wrong today.

Good news for ATM that SML have settled the Pokeno dispute (and the effect is 'not material.')

Here's the release. (https://www.nzx.com/announcements/362766)

Good news for both, especially SML

[couta1]

Well, well..... seems the claim by some that "Bad News (for ATM) always comes in threes" has been proved wrong today.

Good news for ATM that SML have settled the Pokeno dispute (and the effect is 'not material.')

Here's the release. (https://www.nzx.com/announcements/362766) I reckon the 3's crowd are going to be proved very wrong over the next few months. Lol

[Leftfield]

I reckon the 3's crowd are going to be proved very wrong over the next few months. Lol

Yeah.....11:11 pre sales looking great. :sleep:

[Ggcc]

I reckon the 3's crowd are going to be proved very wrong over the next few months. Lol
I don't think they will get upset by it though. The posters I have seen with opinions like that are pretty good at saying they called it wrong. Luckily we did not sell out and I have been accumulating near $14 and I intend to get more if price heads further south.

[couta1]

I don't think they will get upset by it though. The posters I have seen with opinions like that are pretty good at saying they called it wrong. Luckily we did not sell out and I have been accumulating near $14 and I intend to get more if price heads further south. For sure, but calling for 3 downgrades in a row for a company of this quality is just plain silly.

[Beagle]

Well, well..... seems the claim by some that "Bad News (for ATM) always comes in threes" has been proved wrong today.

Good news for ATM that SML have settled the Pokeno dispute (and the effect is 'not material.')

Here's the release. (https://www.nzx.com/announcements/362766)

Balance is not talking about bad news coming in threes for ATM. He's talking about downgrades usually come in three's for most companies, most of the time and in my experience they usually do.

Time will tell. Commentary at the annual meeting on 18/11/20 will be the next marker but you might have to read the tea leaves on what they have to say. Unlikely to be another downgrade this early...but you never know...stranger things have happened. On the other hand Forbar were pretty bullish yesterday.

Me, I don't buy stocks in a confirmed downtrend no matter what brokers have to say or how vocal people are on here saying that a stock is screaming value. I've learned that its very hard to make progress when you're swimming against the tide.

[couta1]

Balance is not talking about bad news coming in threes for ATM. He's talking about downgrades usually come in three's for most companies, most of the time and in my experience they usually do.

Time will tell. Commentary at the annual meeting on 18/11/20 will be the next marker but you might have to read the tea leaves on what they have to say. Unlikely to be another downgrade this early...but you never know...stranger things have happened. On the other hand Forbar were pretty bullish yesterday.

Me, I don't buy stocks in a confirmed downtrend no matter what brokers have to say or how vocal people are on here saying that a stock is screaming value. I've learned that its very hard to make progress when you're swimming against the tide. Balance has been pretty good on his predictions on some stocks however his track record has not been good on this one. PS- I'm a strong swimmer.

[Gregnz]

I agree that downgrades usually come in 3's. However I dont personally see this with A2. Often downgrades in 3's come from companies in decline, where as the first ever downgrade from A2 was due to a global pandemic directly affecting a sales channel (retail daigou) for a product which is still very much in demand.
The fact that sales revenue in China has increased 77% in July and August is evidence of this demand. Coupled with 11/11, Id be very surprised to see another downgrade.
Clearly the push is on with A2, and perhaps has been for quite some time as they have been transitioning from retail daigou to corporate daigou, and rapidly expanding their retail store presence in China.

I still believe any company which is 87% out of the hands of retail investors and without any news of sell downs by institutions, has good prospects.

[Biscuit]

I've learned that its very hard to make progress when you're swimming against the tide.

Tides come in and tides go out and the sun will shine tomorrow. I've wasted a lot of time in investing worrying about the price to pay for property or shares. But when you look back on investments, the price you paid does not matter very much. What matters is the quality of the investment and how long you've owned it for.

[couta1]

Tides come in and tides go out and the sun will shine tomorrow. I've wasted a lot of time in investing worrying about the price to pay for property or shares. But when you look back on investments, the price you paid does not matter very much. What matters is the quality of the investment and how long you've owned it for. Very wise words, wish I'd always followed them.

[Biscuit]

Very wise words, wish I'd always followed them.


Me to! I have not always followed my own advice.

[winner69]

Tides come in and tides go out and the sun will shine tomorrow. I've wasted a lot of time in investing worrying about the price to pay for property or shares. But when you look back on investments, the price you paid does not matter very much. What matters is the quality of the investment and how long you've owned it for.

I was worried a bit when FPH fell nearly 30% a couple of years ago to $11.85

I said to myself what matters is the quality of the company

[kiora]

I was worried a bit when FPH fell nearly 30% a couple of years ago to $11.85

I said to myself what matters is the quality of the company

I doubled down when FPH went from $4 to 3.50
If I was a ATM holder I would do the same again now

[Cyclical]

I doubled down when FPH went from $4 to 3.50
If I was a ATM holder I would do the same again now

Which begs the question...why don't you make yourself an ATM holder?

[see weed]

yippy yi ya. Just got some at 13.96 at 2.06pm :D .
I am going to make a call here. $13.96c will be the low for 2020:t_up:. If I am wrong I will go to Viaduct Basin and beagle will hold onto my legs for balance as I do a head stand, and I will drink a glass of beer upside down without spilling any, as long as it is a short glass:eek2:. And then will go to the oyster bar and down a half dozen oysters:D.

[dompf]

I am going to make a call here. $13.96c will be the low for 2020:t_up:. If I am wrong I will go to Viaduct Basin and beagle will hold onto my legs for balance as I do a head stand, and I will drink a glass of beer upside down without spilling any, as long as it is a short glass:eek2:. And then will go to the oyster bar and down a half dozen oysters:D.

I’ll hold you to this; I’ll come film :P but I concur possibly the low is in for a2 good company GL all holders

[Mrbuyit]

Trimmed my OCA holding a touch this morning which is looking a bit overweight and grabbed a few more ATM. Time will tell if this was a good move or not.

[Gregnz]

And this years low happened almost to the day as last years low in November. All those on HC saying this wasn’t a repeating pattern.... hmm let’s see

[Biscuit]

I am going to make a call here. $13.96c will be the low for 2020:t_up:. If I am wrong I will go to Viaduct Basin and beagle will hold onto my legs for balance as I do a head stand, and I will drink a glass of beer upside down without spilling any, as long as it is a short glass:eek2:. And then will go to the oyster bar and down a half dozen oysters:D.

That sounds more like a celebration than a forfeit.

[Leftfield]

I am going to make a call here. $13.96c will be the low for 2020:t_up:. If I am wrong I will go to Viaduct Basin and beagle will hold onto my legs for balance as I do a head stand, and I will drink a glass of beer upside down without spilling any, as long as it is a short glass:eek2:. And then will go to the oyster bar and down a half dozen oysters:D.

Like your style Seeweed...... you've made some good calls on ATM. Good luck.

[whome]

I am going to make a call here. $13.96c will be the low for 2020:t_up:. If I am wrong I will go to Viaduct Basin and beagle will hold onto my legs for balance as I do a head stand, and I will drink a glass of beer upside down without spilling any, as long as it is a short glass:eek2:. And then will go to the oyster bar and down a half dozen oysters:D.
Seeweed, isn’t that what you do if you are right!

[Beagle]

I'm confused....I've spent all afternoon wondering where in there do I get the other half dozen fresh osters lol

[kiora]

Which begs the question...why don't you make yourself an ATM holder?

Because I like investing for the long term 20-30 years and I expect long term (10-20 years) ATM earnings growth more likely to tail off more than the holdings I have

[winner69]

I'm confused....I've spent all afternoon wondering where in there do I get the other half dozen fresh osters lol

Only half dozen .....need the whole dozen for a meal

[Gregnz]

Clearly a few big fish wanting to push the pre close price down today. Hopefully gone by Monday.

12068

[DownTownJr]

Finally dipped my toes in today. Purchased some ATM and SML shares. Wil purchase more if results take a drop.

[Justin]

China is threatening to impose bans on up to $6 billion of key Australian exports from Friday under a widely distributed notice sent to the country's food and wine distributors, raising fears of a second wave of economic coercion as diplomatic relations hit a new low.
The addition of copper ore and sugar to a growing list of commodities targeted by Chinese authorities alarmed the agricultural and mining sectors, which were on Tuesday scrambling to verify the authenticity of the notice.

[Gunner]

China is threatening to impose bans on up to $6 billion of key Australian exports from Friday under a widely distributed notice sent to the country's food and wine distributors, raising fears of a second wave of economic coercion as diplomatic relations hit a new low.
The addition of copper ore and sugar to a growing list of commodities targeted by Chinese authorities alarmed the agricultural and mining sectors, which were on Tuesday scrambling to verify the authenticity of the notice.

Lucky we are not in Australia then.

[Justin]

Lucky we are not in Australia then.

as long as Jacinda doesn’t do anything stupid we should be in the clear

[Gregnz]

as long as Jacinda doesn’t do anything stupid we should be in the clear

All I see it doing is increasing demand for NZ products.
Most of A2’s supply including their proposed investment in Mataura valley is all joint ventures with the Chinese.
A2’s investment in Synlait is also a joint venture with the Chinese.

[Leftfield]

All I see it doing is increasing demand for NZ products.
Most of A2’s supply including their proposed investment in Mataura valley is all joint ventures with the Chinese.
A2’s investment in Synlait is also a joint venture with the Chinese.

Well said Gregnz.

Over on HC respected poster jzhuang has posted this update on A2 China sales (including an optimistic update showing a 77% increase via export stats ex Lyttleton.) Here's the link. (https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/some-thoughts-on-1h21.5741686/?post_id=48696970)

jzhuang echoes my thoughts that the Daigou decline is a temporary distribution channel shift.



"The most important thing for me is underlying customer demand is still proven to be very strong. However, rather than believing in full recovery of daigou channel, My hope is on the channel shift in the short term. I'm overall quite optimistic from mid term perspective. The growth story should not stop for at least next a couple of years.
With continuous strong customer demand and good signs of sales recovery being observed recently, I believe A2MC will achieve higher end of their revenue forecast ($725m - $775m), or even slightly better. We should be able to see a clearer view on AGM day coming in 2 weeks' time."


Of course this is just one opinion. A2 may be down, but it isn't out.

As usual... DYOR and take responsibility for your own decisions.

[Gregnz]

Well said Gregnz.

Over on HC respected poster jzhuang has posted this update on A2 China sales (including an optimistic update showing a 77% increase via export stats ex Lyttleton.).

Thanks, I like the part where he predicts $A 16 by end of 2020.

Fingers and toes crossed here.

[Waltzing]

If his investigation into exports are correct then the 14 low should hold and make a very nice addition to the support levels in this stock and im sure holders will be relieved for the present.

[see weed]

Only half dozen .....need the whole dozen for a meal
Need to have a 5 min break between half dozens. You are more than welcome to come along and down a dozen oysters and if you like an upside down beer. Was there last Saturday for happy hour from 3pm to 6pm.

[Lion_graf]

Worth a watch.. an overview and valuation on our beloved a2. A lot of stuff already known to us shareholders but if you learn something new from it your welcome..

https://youtu.be/G4pPuaTog64

[couta1]

Well hello Sharesies punters.:cool:

[MarineSalvage]

one share at a time they will make ATM the new BGI
Well hello Sharesies punters.:cool:

[Ggcc]

Well hello Sharesies punters.:cool:
Haha we will see it back to $20 in no time now.

[Gregnz]

Haha we will see it back to $20 in no time now.

I’m fairly certain the Aussies will keep the price in check on the asx for a while yet.
I’m not expecting any significant movement until the AGM on the 18th and we get a better picture on how the business is performing.

[Leftfield]

Haha we will see it back to $20 in no time now.

The USA election result is good for NZ (and ATM) as NZ/US Trade ties are likely to be strengthened.....in addition, and to counter a more outward looking US, China will be eager to retain 'friends' in the South Pacific, so the risk of any anti NZ trade moves by China will be much less in the years ahead.

All good for ATM. Only a question of time before it is back to $20.

(However, I'm biased.....so DYOR)

[Cyclical]

I'm predicting Beagle will join us with this one sometime within the next 10 days ;)

[Gregnz]

What’s everyone’s feeling for the next update on the 18th? I’m leaning towards a positive update, based on that chart showing 77% growth in China sales in July and August this year compared with last, and add in 11:11 which this year was split into several days of selling.

However over on HC the down rampers have convinced themselves that downgrades come in
3’s

[Leftfield]

I'm predicting Beagle will join us with this one sometime within the next 10 days ;)

$20 is more likely... but may take longer than 10 days ;)

[DownTownJr]

What’s everyone’s feeling for the next update on the 18th? I’m leaning towards a positive update, based on that chart showing 77% growth in China sales in July and August this year compared with last, and add in 11:11 which this year was split into several days of selling.

However over on HC the down rampers have convinced themselves that downgrades come in
3’s

My thoughts exactly, I am expecting a positive update hence why I dipped my toes in last week and if I'm wrong, then I will buy some more once she dips.

I don't follow HC, I find their forum horrible to navigate and hear nothing positive about the place.

A2 is in a strong position.

[alokdhir]

What’s everyone’s feeling for the next update on the 18th? I’m leaning towards a positive update, based on that chart showing 77% growth in China sales in July and August this year compared with last, and add in 11:11 which this year was split into several days of selling.

However over on HC the down rampers have convinced themselves that downgrades come in
3’s

Most likely a positive update about better prospects after they made that downgrade announcement on 28th Sept ...all sales via all channels were already accounted for till at least end sept when they made that public ...only new news about sales will therefore be after end sept period ...most important of that will be super sales period around 11/11 .
Keeping in view the price action so far in the markets especially ozzy ...it seems most likely positive news coming

Otherwise also in the current market where all listed PIEs like KFL/BRM/MLN are trading well over their intrinsic value ...ATM offers best value on offer ... Quality stock around its yearly lows ...Top Buy ...cant go wrong buying this as investment at current levels .

SP follows results some say ...Here good news follows upwards SP action ...

[Justin]

What’s everyone’s feeling for the next update on the 18th? I’m leaning towards a positive update, based on that chart showing 77% growth in China sales in July and August this year compared with last, and add in 11:11 which this year was split into several days of selling.

However over on HC the down rampers have convinced themselves that downgrades come in
3’s

Hi Gregnz，what‘s the HC means？thank you

[Gregnz]

Hi Gregnz，what‘s the HC means？thank you

HotCopper. It’s Australia’s sharemarket forum

[Gregnz]

Hi Gregnz，what‘s the HC means？thank you

Just be careful if you browse that HC forum, plenty of paid trolls there doing their best to keep the price down and plenty of unsubstantiated gossip

[Justin]

Thank you Gregnz

[Leftfield]

Just be careful if you browse that HC forum, plenty of paid trolls there doing their best to keep the price down and plenty of unsubstantiated gossip

A tip to navigate trolls is to only read top rated posts ie only read those with 5 likes or more. ;)

[Beagle]

I'm predicting Beagle will join us with this one sometime within the next 10 days ;)

LOL I wouldn't hold your breath mate. Kingfish have plenty and I have a significant number of Kingfish warrants KFLWF, (exercisable 12/3/21) and few more today too, not specifically because of ATM share price but because they were slightly below my updated valuation of 21.5 cps.

On a look through basis I have all the interest in ATM I want.

[Gregnz]

A tip to navigate trolls is to only read top rated posts ie only read those with 5 likes or more. ;)

Yep, or posts from people with a good lightbulb to post ratio. Some of the less educated trolls on HC have 3300 posts and 100 lightbulbs! Goes to show the quality of what they post.
Look for people with lots of lightbulbs

[winner69]

HotCopper. It’s Australia’s sharemarket forum

No ...it’s Australia’s pre-eminent sharemarket forum.

Disc. I’ve been banned for life from HC

[Gregnz]

No ...it’s Australia’s pre-eminent sharemarket forum.

Disc. I’ve been banned for life from HC

OMG, is that possible, to be banned for life?

Could you just create a new membership with a different email?

Must admit the posts that are moderated are questionable, I would hazard a guess that those who moderate HC are in some cases trolls and down rampers themselves, they remove posts of quality and leave up ones that are purely false.

[RupertBear]

No ...it’s Australia’s pre-eminent sharemarket forum.

Disc. I’ve been banned for life from HC

Thats awesome Winner! Well done! :D

[alokdhir]

SML trading halted for some big announcement ...any ideas ...

[couta1]

No ...it’s Australia’s pre-eminent sharemarket forum.

Disc. I’ve been banned for life from HC

Thats awesome Winner! Well done! :D Yep an absolutely monumental achievement, well done. PS-There is someone using the username Winnerkiwi over there.

[couta1]

SML trading halted for some big announcement ...any ideas ... Good or bad i wonder?

[alokdhir]

Good or bad i wonder?

Seems good ...that maybe the catalyst today for ATM surge ....just thinking aloud .

[Gregnz]

Good or bad i wonder?

SML was up over 4% this morning and it made me look at the NZX to see if I'd missed an update. But nothing.

I suspect any announcement could be good news, unless this mornings rally was just pent up Biden optimism.

[winner69]

[QUOTE=RupertBear;855321] Yep an absolutely monumental achievement, well done. PS-There is someone using the username Winnerkiwi over there.


Ha ha that’s funny ...not me ..must be one of my loyal fans

unless I go the bother of setting things up so I can’t be traced it’s been impossible to open another account ....they seem to know who I am (isp addresses etc or something)

It was years ago when an Aussie mechanical heart company was all the rage and the former US Vice President Cheney was reported to have had a heart transplant ......all I did was pasted a bit out of an article and in true HC fashion ramped the hell out of the company and subtly added the company name in the article ......very very very naughty of me eh. They threatened to report me to the ASIC as it was so naughty.

Never mind ...never missed them.

[Ggcc]

SML was up over 4% this morning and it made me look at the NZX to see if I'd missed an update. But nothing.

I suspect any announcement could be good news, unless this mornings rally was just pent up Biden optimism.
Takeover offer or merger into ATM. Or just a 70 million capital raise.....

[Gregnz]

Takeover offer or merger into ATM. Or just a 70 million capital raise.....

Hmm, not sure that would be a good thing. I quite like the fact that ATM has a joint venture with the Chinese in Synlait.

[couta1]

Hmm, not sure that would be a good thing. I quite like the fact that ATM has a joint venture with the Chinese in Synlait. Yes agree, don't think the market would be too keen on that idea.

[Ggcc]

Hmm, not sure that would be a good thing. I quite like the fact that ATM has a joint venture with the Chinese in Synlait.
I agree. Maybe offer them a % share of A2 as a merger. Whatever is in the best interest of all shareholders

[Biscuit]

Nice rise today. That's eaten up all the losses incurred buying the falling knife. Hope it retraces a bit so I can double down.

[Leftfield]

Good or bad i wonder?


Page 8 of the FY. 20 AR provides a possible hint....it said.....

As signaled last month a new multinational customer opportunity is being finalised.

[ratkin]

[QUOTE=couta1;855325]



It was years ago when an Aussie mechanical heart company was all the rage and the former US Vice President Cheney was reported to have had a heart transplant ......all I did was pasted a bit out of an article and in true HC fashion ramped the hell out of the company and subtly added the company name in the article ......very very very naughty of me eh. They threatened to report me to the ASIC as it was so naughty.

Never mind ...never missed them.

You and Gerry Stolwick? what a pair of rampers.

[Gregnz]

Page 8 of the FY. 20 AR provides a possible hint....it said.....

As signaled last month a new multinational customer opportunity is being finalised.

I wonder why the halt today, this was in the Herald 3 days ago...

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/synlait-milk-signs-up-new-customer-sees-earnings-impact-in-2023/SIZOATV3DJVNMHRCMDISD6HHZQ/

[Scrunch]

ASX Trading Halt request timed at 4:05 pm states that the reason is "an announcement relating to a proposed capital raising".

From the SML thread - Good spotting Southern Lad.

[see weed]

Like your style Seeweed...... you've made some good calls on ATM. Good luck.
Thank you. Have topped up and added another 22,000 to the pot in the last 4 weeks including the $13.96c block on the 4/11/20. Very happy with holding going up $80k in last 3 days:eek2:.

[see weed]

Seeweed, isn’t that what you do if you are right!
I think I will do it anyway......1 doz oysters and a beer standing upright:D

[see weed]

And this years low happened almost to the day as last years low in November. All those on HC saying this wasn’t a repeating pattern.... hmm let’s see
Closing sp on 6/11/19 was $12.30c. The next day 7/11/19 the low was $12.19c for the year but sp went up by days end and closed at $12.57c and that was the start of the 9 month long bull to $21.74c:).

[Gregnz]

Closing sp on 6/11/19 was $12.30c. The next day 7/11/19 the low was $12.19c for the year but sp went up by days end and closed at $12.57c and that was the start of the 9 month long bull to $21.74c:).

Yep, here’s hoping for a positive update from the AGM on the 18th Nov.

[couta1]

SML capital raising a non event for A2 other than a possible share dilution at this point in time.

[King1212]

Been to a foodshow...talk to green valley rep. She said... eventually all the herds in nz will be A2 herd...so normal milk will be also A2 protein...that the trend n all farmers will follow it...

That mean... normal milk will be also A2 protein content.

Don't shoot the messenger...just passing the insider news

[Ggcc]

Been to a foodshow...talk to green valley rep. She said... eventually all the herds in nz will be A2 herd...so normal milk will be also A2 protein...that the trend n all farmers will follow it...

That mean... normal milk will be also A2 protein content.

Don't shoot the messenger...just passing the insider news
I spoke to someone within Fonterra who is trying to help all farmers get their maximum return. She drinks A2 and feels the difference, but understands that Fonterra farmers don't all want to change, as they don't believe in the difference and are happy with the status quo. Kiwis just hate changing even if it means they will benefit from it. Farmers have lots of pride and in cases where people prove them wrong, their pride gets in the way of change. Or they are told by Fonterra that milk is just milk......

[Lion_graf]

Shanghai, 7 November 2020. Abbott, the world's leading healthcare company, launched Abbott Similac A2 organic infant formula on cross-border e-commerce platforms during the 3rd China International Import Expo. For the Chinese baby to bring the global synchronization of infant nutrition, but also brought a series of cross-border platform sales of "global top goods."






Guests to witness Abbott SimilacA2 China launch moment



As a safe and convenient official purchasing channel, Abbott Nutrition cross-border e-commerce products rich, covering a number of global leading scientific nutrition products, for the pursuit of high-quality consumers to provide a more diverse product choice. During the epidemic, cross-border e-commerce provides a safe and convenient purchase channel for consumers who pursue high quality.





Abbott nutrition cross-border e-commerce product line



This cross-border launch of Abbott Similac A2 organic infant formula, is the first organic A2 infant formula in the United States, the selection of A2 gene dairy cows, rich in A2 milk protein comprehensive mild nutrition, take care of the baby's intestines, mild and easy to absorb. The original import of the United States, and obtained the United States Department of Agriculture organic certification. Select high quality ingredients, non-transgenic and do not add artificial growth hormone. Abbott Similac unique OptiGRO formula, including DHA, xanthine, vitamin E, scientific nutrition formula to help baby eye and brain development.

[Lion_graf]

A2 China to open the "whole milk strategy", children and adults nutrition double overweight!
Yesterday
Act asA2Protein pioneer - well-known New Zealand dairy enterprisesa2Milk company hand in hand partner Shanghai limited company of Chinese farming cultivate holding appears this to enter fair.

This isa2For the third year in a row, it brought two new heavy room temperature milk products to the Chinese market.a2Milk Whole Milk Pure Milk with Against4For children ageda2 Smart NutritionChildren's milk. The release of the two new products at room temperature milk, also marks thea2Products in the Chinese market to achieve a comprehensive coverage from infants to children, from maternal groups to adults.

1.Children's adult nutrition products "double" overweight

At this expo,a2The booths of Milk Company and China Nongken Holdings Shanghai Co., Ltd. are one of the main booths for food and agricultural products.

a2Booth to mark the purple tone, divided intoDisplay area and “Free living area” The display area not only showsa2Milk products, but also representative of New Zealand pastures, snow-capped mountains and other beautiful natural breath to the entire exhibition area, visitors like exposure to New Zealand's natural pure world. The "Free Living Area" not only features product tastings and coffee bars, but also shows the fitness cycling activities that New Zealand's young people are passionate about, fully demonstrating thea2"Naturally different love comfortable" healthy life concept.

2 booth "free living area"
establish20For years.a2Milk has become the market share and popularity of the leading milk brands in the local market. After entering the Chinese market in recent years,a2Because of its quality and its products only containA2Protein (excludingA1 ) Unique health benefits are gaining recognition among Chinese consumers,a2In China's market share is also increasing year by year.

[King1212]

She said....all herds will only go A2 herds

[Gregnz]

She said....all herds will only go A2 herds

This has been discussed for years, when I first invested in A2 three years ago it was being talked about.
A2 isn’t just a milk supplier, they are an amazing marketing company and infant formula supplier. It’s the infant formula side of the business and not the fresh milk side which has provided shareholder returns over the years.

[ados_nz]

She said....all herds will only go A2 herds

Unfortunately King you were talking to a marketing rep not a farmer... The reality on the ground is very different.

[Sideshow Bob]

SML capital raising a non event for A2 other than a possible share dilution at this point in time.

Depends if they want to pony up for almost 20% of the capital being raised.....;)

[Sideshow Bob]

[QUOTE=couta1;855325]


Ha ha that’s funny ...not me ..must be one of my loyal fans

unless I go the bother of setting things up so I can’t be traced it’s been impossible to open another account ....they seem to know who I am (isp addresses etc or something)

It was years ago when an Aussie mechanical heart company was all the rage and the former US Vice President Cheney was reported to have had a heart transplant ......all I did was pasted a bit out of an article and in true HC fashion ramped the hell out of the company and subtly added the company name in the article ......very very very naughty of me eh. They threatened to report me to the ASIC as it was so naughty.

Never mind ...never missed them.

Top effort Winner....I tip my hat!! :t_up:

[LEMON]

Biden in, Covid-19 vaccine has a 90% success with realise expected by end of the year from a USA/German company.
US stock markets fired up after news of vaccine. China & USA aggression will hopefully relax and trading between countries starts moving again with Biden and a vaccine.
All good news for A2 value again surely with a bit more world stability?

[alokdhir]

Biden in, Covid-19 vaccine has a 90% success with realise expected by end of the year from a USA/German company.
US stock markets fired up after news of vaccine. China & USA aggression will hopefully relax and trading between countries starts moving again with Biden and a vaccine.
All good news for A2 value again surely with a bit more world stability?

Yes ..all good news for ATM ...ATM went down due to Covid troubles ...so should participate in Covid vaccine news rally ...$ 20 should come sooner then we were expecting before . Any small good news will trigger big rally on 18th .

[BlackPeter]

I spoke to someone within Fonterra who is trying to help all farmers get their maximum return. She drinks A2 and feels the difference, but understands that Fonterra farmers don't all want to change, as they don't believe in the difference and are happy with the status quo. Kiwis just hate changing even if it means they will benefit from it. Farmers have lots of pride and in cases where people prove them wrong, their pride gets in the way of change. Or they are told by Fonterra that milk is just milk......

While A2 milk does seem to have nutritional benefits for some people ... the breeds producing A1 milk typically produce more milk. This is the reason A1 took over from the original A2 protein.

Changing back to A2 herds clearly has some benefits for some consumers and therefore for farmers, but the change is not free.

[alokdhir]

SML news is out ...$ 200 million equity raising @ 5.10 per share ...also said IF first half sales very poor as ATM struggling ...but this we already know

[bull....]

SML news is out ...$ 200 million equity raising @ 5.10 per share ...also said IF first half sales very poor as ATM struggling ...but this we already know

Synlait now expects consumer-packaged infant formula volumes to be lower than FY20, with softer demand in HY21 than previously expected as our key customer resets its own inventory levels.

add in the covid winners are being beaten up bad today in the US

[Sideshow Bob]

SML news is out ...$ 200 million equity raising @ 5.10 per share ...also said IF first half sales very poor as ATM struggling ...but this we already know

$40m to not get diluted. Interesting to see what they do.

I'm a little wary of the fact that A2 own all but 20% of the company but don't have anyone on the board.

[Gregnz]

“ The Equity Raising is supported by Synlait’s cornerstone shareholders Bright Dairy Holding Limited and The a2 Milk Company, with pro rata pre-commitments to take up shares by them and guaranteed allocation amounting to approximately $114 million in total which have been excluded from the underwrite. The balance of the Equity Raising is fully underwritten. Further, each of Synlait’s New Zealand resident directors has committed to participate in the Equity Raising”

[jimdog31]

$40m to not get diluted. Interesting to see what they do.

I'm a little wary of the fact that A2 own all but 20% of the company but don't have anyone on the board.

Also - how do we know the international player isnt an A2 competitor?

[Gregnz]

Also - how do we know the international player isnt an A2 competitor?

If they were, then surely A2 wouldn’t have made a pre commitment to take up shares in the capital raise.
If it were a case of a A2 competitor, you’d think A2 would be happy to let their share dilute and put their funds into Mataura Valley

[Sideshow Bob]

Then back through $16.00......

Short burning time?? :p

[Sideshow Bob]

Also - how do we know the international player isnt an A2 competitor?

A2 have a supply agreement with Synlait, and presumably would take a fair chunk of their A2 production. Would say any agreement would preclude supply to any direct A2 competitor or directly competing products.

[DownTownJr]

Well, nice little run this morning was short lived.

[Gregnz]

Usually it’s the Aussies who are less exuberant, but past two days seems A2 is tracking better on the ASX

[couta1]

Usually it’s the Aussies who are less exuberant, but past two days seems A2 is tracking better on the ASX Not really, a bullish open on the NZX and then the normal trashing once the ASX swings into action, same old.

[Gregnz]

Not really, a bullish open on the NZX and then the normal trashing once the ASX swings into action, same old.

Yep, I just see its tracking well ahead of its close yesterday, where as we are currently barely ahead of yesterdays close.

A shame for those who dont know to hold off buying dual listed stocks until after midday.

[couta1]

Yep, I just see its tracking well ahead of its close yesterday, where as we are currently barely ahead of yesterdays close.

A shame for those who dont know to hold off buying dual listed stocks until after midday. Haha the NZX is acting Schitzo today in regards to A2, went from overly bullish this morning to a bear clawing at close.

[clearasmud]

Haha the NZX is acting Schitzo today, went from overly bullish this morning to a bear clawing at close.
Really only because the no 1 stock tanked 12%.
The rest of the NZX was up over 2%

[couta1]

Really only because the no 1 stock tanked 12%.
The rest of the NZX was up over 2% My post was in reference to the behaviour of A2 only(Post above altered)

[Gregnz]

Here we are again, after a bit of a rocky day, trading on the NZX only 2 cents above yesterdays close, meanwhile on the ASX its 15 cents higher. My sentiment remains that for A2, the Aussies seem more exuberant that the Kiwis, which is usually not the case (except when the ASX first opens at midday)

[couta1]

Here we are again, after a bit of a rocky day, trading on the NZX only 2 cents above yesterdays close, meanwhile on the ASX its 15 cents higher. My sentiment remains that for A2, the Aussies seem more exuberant that the Kiwis, which is usually not the case (except when the ASX first opens at midday) Not really, the Aussie close is what matters and it has been more bearish than the NZX one of late. PS-Dont forget our dollar has also weakened against the Aussie today.

[couta1]

As I was saying, Aussie close more bearish at $15.31NZ, was worse last night though.

[Waltzing]

Looks like the market wants to see the results in print before taking it higher, at least it held in the 14 to 15 range.

[Leftfield]

Bit too early to call results of China's massive online 11:11 sale, but A2 appears 'well positioned.' Number 1 even!!

12083

For those who want to find out more...... here's a good background article from ABC (https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-11-12/china-singles-day-australian-sales-popular-trade-tensions/12868362) (Written from an Aus angle and not sure whether they are claiming A2 as an OZ company.)

[alokdhir]

Keeping in view that this year's sales so far is already double of last year's at around $ 76 billion ...and A2 being on top ..can safely conclude that they did much more in this super volumes event then last year's

Will this make up for the short fall of ANZ sales shortfall due to closure of cross border private channels ?

Also of note that on their own website they sell directly so should be realising better prices then thru supermarkets , even after offering 15% sales discount for the event

Very promising and positive outcome in my view .

[Gregnz]

Overall A2 was 12th on the list for singles day, but considering singles day this year did almost double the sales volume of previous years, and had an additional period added between 1-3 November which isnt included in the specific singles day totals, all in all I think good news.

You can view stats here for singles day sales:

http://1111.syntun.com.cn/

[Gregnz]

12084

a2 on that list

[alokdhir]

Overall A2 was 12th on the list for singles day, but considering singles day this year did almost double the sales volume of previous years, and had an additional period added between 1-3 November which isnt included in the specific singles day totals, all in all I think good news.

You can view stats here for singles day sales:

http://1111.syntun.com.cn/

Good work buddy . Though 12th ...but we more concerned about absolute sales numbers then world positions ...

Any idea what was the position last year as that will give some knowledge about what's happening to market shares etc

[Gregnz]

Good work buddy . Though 12th ...but we more concerned about absolute sales numbers then world positions ...

Any idea what was the position last year as that will give some knowledge about what's happening to market shares etc

Not sure of last year. Its very hard to interpret the data this year because of the additional selling period between 1-3 November which isn't included, and the fact that 11/11 in itself was nearly double prior years.
I also consider that because A2 are a premium infant formula supplier, many of the brands ahead of them on that list are significantly cheaper, so its understandable that someone would buy more Aptamil vs A2 as its half the price of A2. (I guess what I'm saying based purely on total $$ of sales, the fact A2 is at number 12 isn't really comparable, as they only need to sell half the quantity to equal the same $$ sales of cheaper brands. And I dont know if that list is by quantity sold or $$ value)

[dreamcatcher]

Not sure of last year. Its very hard to interpret the data this year because of the additional selling period between 1-3 November which isn't included, and the fact that 11/11 in itself was nearly double prior years.
I also consider that because A2 are a premium infant formula supplier, many of the brands ahead of them on that list are significantly cheaper, so its understandable that someone would buy more Aptamil vs A2 as its half the price of A2. (I guess what I'm saying based purely on total $$ of sales, the fact A2 is at number 12 isn't really comparable, as they only need to sell half the quantity to equal the same $$ sales of cheaper brands. And I dont know if that list is by quantity sold or $$ value)

Confused add to that sales have doubled for "Double11" ..........we need to wait for official results hopefully next week?

Alibaba’s Singles Day sales reportedly surpassed $US74 billion, nearly double the previous record.

https://www.businessinsider.com.au/alibaba-singles-day-sales-surpassed-74-billion-2020-11?r=US&IR=T

[Gregnz]

Confused add to that sales have doubled for "Double11" ..........we need to wait for official results hopefully next week?

Alibaba’s Singles Day sales reportedly surpassed $US74 billion, nearly double the previous record.

https://www.businessinsider.com.au/alibaba-singles-day-sales-surpassed-74-billion-2020-11?r=US&IR=T

I think I confused myself trying to write my reply, and agree not long to wait until all is revealed on the 18th Nov.

[MauroNZ]

12084

a2 on that list

So if they are placed 12th is an interesting sign of the potential ahead.

[Gregnz]

So if they are placed 12th is an interesting sign of the potential ahead.

Honestly its too difficult to interpret, best to wait for the AGM on the 18th.

I've seen that list for singles day showing the ranking 12th. Apparently the 12th spot was all milk products, including fresh milk, so not just infant formula which is where A2 specialise in China.

I've also seen lists for Tmall and JD showing 2nd placed for Infant formula.

12085

12086

[alokdhir]

Honestly its too difficult to interpret, best to wait for the AGM on the 18th.

I've seen that list for singles day showing the ranking 12th. Apparently the 12th spot was all milk products, including fresh milk, so not just infant formula which is where A2 specialise in China.

I've also seen lists for Tmall and JD showing 2nd placed for Infant formula.

12085

12086

This one is more clearer ...In IF close number 2 ..seems good times will be back sooner then we expected before ..lol

[Leftfield]

So if they are placed 12th is an interesting sign of the potential ahead.

Sales positions are only a guide...... Top sales position could have been achieved by discounting.

That said, I suspect A2 has not discounted, so we need to wait and see profitabiity/margin reports etc.... but looking good on early indications.

[Leftfield]

Another early indication..... A2M second top selling brand in Mother and Baby brand categories.

12087

[dreamcatcher]

This one is more clearer ...In IF close number 2 ..seems good times will be back sooner then we expected before ..lol

Google Chrome can automatically translate page to english

[alokdhir]

Any further news about actual sales figures from 11/11 event ...

We already know they did around 95% more then last year but actual figures we dont know ...

Just was thinking how meaningful to overall HY20 sales figures this event boost can be ??

[Scrunch]

Sales positions are only a guide...... Top sales position could have been achieved by discounting.

That said, I suspect A2 has not discounted, so we need to wait and see profitabiity/margin reports etc.... but looking good on early indications.

If they have significant discounting the gross margin would fall, and a market update would be appropriate. There has not been an update around reduced gross margins therefore the most likely scenario is no significant discounting to get the volume gain you note.

[Sideshow Bob]

Ziwi (different category but was number 2 NZ brand behind A2 last year), reported that this years sales were up over 300%.....

[sb9]

Ziwi (different category but was number 2 NZ brand behind A2 last year), reported that this years sales were up over 300%.....

Could be of very low base though compared to big brands like A2.

[Sideshow Bob]

Could be of very low base though compared to big brands like A2.

Not as big as A2, but as mentioned 2nd NZ brand - https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/farming/117410748/a2-among-top-brands-on-alibabas-singles-day

My understanding was several million last year, but as a private company can't find a figure. As an aside, they appear close to be sold, for a very significant sum.



About to get sold for a signifcant sum by the sounds of it

[kiora]

Not as big as A2, but as mentioned 2nd NZ brand - https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/farming/117410748/a2-among-top-brands-on-alibabas-singles-day

My understanding was several million last year, but as a private company can't find a figure. As an aside, they appear close to be sold, for a very significant sum.



About to get sold for a signifcant sum by the sounds of it

Modular housing coming soon?

[see weed]

The quick and the dead. Went to amend order lower but they went through at 15.34, boy they move fast.

[DownTownJr]

Disappointing end of the week, here's hoping to a positive result come next week.

[bullfrog]

It’s the Daigou effect, give it 6 mths and all will be well

[couta1]

Disappointing end of the week, here's hoping to a positive result come next week. Just a normal Friday profit taking session.

[Master98]

Latest list attached:
1st Aptamil
2nd 启赋
3rd A2
12091

[Justin]

Latest list attached:
1st Aptamil
2nd 启赋
3rd A2
12091

2nd 启赋 = Wyeth illuma

[alokdhir]

https://simplywall.st/stocks/nz/food-beverage-tobacco/nzx-atm/a2-milk-shares/news/are-investors-undervaluing-the-a2-milk-company-limited-nzseatm-by-30/

[LEMON]

https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2020/11/15/rcep-15-asia-pacific-nations-set-worlds-biggest-trade-pact

[LEMON]

Should help A2, agreement signed. Tariffs cut.

[Gunner]

Should help A2, agreement signed. Tariffs cut.

Really odd that this hasn't been on nz news

[Cyclical]

Really odd that this hasn't been on nz news
It was on TV1 news this evening.

[Gunner]

It was on TV1 news this evening.
Not on tv3

[Cyclical]

Not on tv3

Need I say more.

I wonder what this week has in stock for ATM and its SP...should be an interesting (and hopefully exciting) one.

[Justin]

RCEP trade deal and top 3 ranking in 11/11 sales. 18/11 meeting should be exciting.

[BlackPeter]

Should help A2, agreement signed. Tariffs cut.

Still needs to be ratified ... and hey - I could find so far nothing on the fineprint,i.e. no clue whether it helps or hinders A2. Did you?

[winner69]

Still needs to be ratified ... and hey - I could find so far nothing on the fineprint,i.e. no clue whether it helps or hinders A2. Did you?

Great news though eh BP

Going to add $2 billion to GDP man on radio said this morning

[Sideshow Bob]

Should help A2, agreement signed. Tariffs cut.

NZ has an FTA with China already, recently upgraded.

I can't quite work out what the HS code is for infant formula, but might be 1901.10.20 or 1910.10.10.

Looks like China is already tariff free? And has been for some years? https://www.tariff-finder.govt.nz/#159001146|CN but will benefit with those other signatories of the new agreement.

[LEMON]

I believe it h

[LEMON]

Still needs to be ratified ... and hey - I could find so far nothing on the fineprint,i.e. no clue whether it helps or hinders A2. Did you?

I believe it helps. Due to China being one of A2s largest importers. Links between Chinese and New Zealand dairy industry and talks of tariffs being cut on agriculture could only promote the use of products between the 9/10 (India) ASEAN countries, it can only help bolster the fair trading and scrap all the worry of New Zealand's place during the US/China trade war fight for a short while (at least till we see where that one plays out in the foreseeable future)

Now they've signed the agreement it can only consolidate the likability that A2 will have more room to move in China as long as the company keeps running in the right direction of producing, advertisement and management.

Then again I could be speaking utter rubbish as who knows during these current times.
I would only hope that this agreement helps with a more sustainable fair trade and helps create better links between the counties.
In the end thats what the Share Trader form is for to share opinions and at least have a solid agreement or someone give you a better perspective on something, they may understand better.

[LEMON]

https://www.farmonline.com.au/story/6970431/south-east-asia-beckons-for-australian-dairy/

https://www.interest.co.nz/rural-news/107541/rabobank-points-out-significant-diversification-our-dairy-trade-away-china-will-be

We can also possibly look forward to reaching beyond China

[Snow Leopard]

.... between the 9/10 (India) ASEAN countries.....

All 10 Asean countries have signed up for RCEP.
India is not a member of ASEAN.

[LEMON]

All 10 Asean countries have signed up for RCEP.
India is not a member of ASEAN.

Doors open for India if I'm right though?

[Sideshow Bob]

Doors open for India if I'm right though?

India haven't signed up to the agreement - for now.

https://www.mfat.govt.nz/en/trade/free-trade-agreements/free-trade-agreements-concluded-but-not-in-force/regional-comprehensive-economic-partnership-rcep/rcep-overview

[Snow Leopard]

RCEP mentions India like the Australian Constitution mentions New Zealand.

i.e. It may happen, but.... :mellow:

[winner69]

RCEP sounds like a deadly disease / virus

[Snow Leopard]

RCEP sounds like a deadly disease / virus

Let's keep it on topic shall we?

Lots of India's cattle are pure A2, the A1 stuff is from imported breeds. So lots of Indians already drink A2 milk, have A2 salted lassi and so on.

[Blue Skies]

Doors open for India if I'm right though?


Prime Minister Narendra Modi pulled India out of the negotiations in November 2019 due to strong domestic pressure.
With reduced tariffs & easier trade rules, many businesses were scared of a flood of imports esp from China.
Not likely to join anytime soon.

[LEMON]

Let's keep it on topic, shall we?

Lots of India's cattle are pure A2, the A1 stuff is from imported breeds. So lots of Indians already drink A2 milk, have A2 salted lassi and so on.

Also comes down to the quality of the cattle, locations, climate, feed and production

[Master98]

oz trading suspended? depth and price not moving for some time, just guess.

update:
The ASX has paused the market due to ongoing market issues. ASX is investigating as a priority.

[Gregnz]

oz trading suspended? depth and price not moving for some time, just guess.

update:
The ASX has paused the market due to ongoing market issues. ASX is investigating as a priority.

Must be their turn after our meltdown the other month.

[couta1]

Must be their turn after our meltdown the other month. At least they halt things quickly unlike the NZX which blundered along in a mess for days on end.

[Gregnz]

At least they halt things quickly unlike the NZX which blundered along in a mess for days on end.

Agreed. Our lot realised what was happening around day 5. I kept thinking they would learn after day 2, but no...

[longy]

Agreed. Our lot realised what was happening around day 5. I kept thinking they would learn after day 2, but no...

Ah... Just a glitch. No tradings were caused by a botched move to a new trading system.

[alokdhir]

Any calls about what most likely we will hear at AGM ? Also how will market react to that ....:p

[couta1]

Any calls about what most likely we will hear at AGM ? Also how will market react to that ....:p I dont use crystal balls.

[Ggcc]

Any calls about what most likely we will hear at AGM ? Also how will market react to that ....:p
Expect the same message as last time. Things are difficult with COVID, most likely Daigou are starting to buy products again, we might get an indication how much. 11/11 has done well. Lowering of IF Stocks as what was mentioned by Synlait. Greener pastures in the horizon with new deal made between Asia and NZ/Australia. Longterm outlook still stable, just a few potholes for the time being on the road to greater success........ $20 in no time.......... Maybe lol. DYOR

[Waltzing]

it must hold 14...

[couta1]

it must hold 14... Bit of a random pointless post? a classic bull type post, your not related are you?

[davflaws]

I dont use crystal balls.

Nah - you have always had steel!

[Getty]

Good to see ATM trending upwards in the after midday trading, compared to recent weeks.

It must have crossed an important threshold.

[see weed]

Any calls about what most likely we will hear at AGM ? Also how will market react to that ....:p
Have been buying up bits and pieces on close recently....15.34, 15.30 and some more tonight. Steady as she goes. Morningstar has 16.30 val.:D and we seem to be headed that way. Am going to buy as many as possible before it gets there;).

[alokdhir]

Have been buying up bits and pieces on close recently....15.34, 15.30 and some more tonight. Steady as she goes. Morningstar has 16.30 val.:D and we seem to be headed that way. Am going to buy as many as possible before it gets there;).

16.30 is not going to satisfy most people here ...especially ....

What about your crystal ball reading ?

Actually I call it informed and derived calculated reading ....all here are seasoned investors and long time followers of ATM ...so thought of picking all's collective wisdom !!

Its to keep it interesting and in the right spirit ...sometimes fun is also worthy :D

[couta1]

16.30 is not going to satisfy most people here ...especially ....

What about your crystal ball reading ?

Actually I call it informed and derived calculated reading ....all here are seasoned investors and long time followers of ATM ...so thought of picking all's collective wisdom !!

Its to keep it interesting and in the right spirit ...sometimes fun is also worthy :D Well my 1 yr price target is $25, does that answer your question. PS-see weed please rinse your mouth out with soap and water for mentioning that Numpty Morningstar valuation.

[Cyclical]

Have been buying up bits and pieces on close recently....15.34, 15.30 and some more tonight. Steady as she goes. Morningstar has 16.30 val.:D and we seem to be headed that way. Am going to buy as many as possible before it gets there;).


16.30 is not going to satisfy most people here ...especially ....

I know right, that's about a 6.5% gain from $15.30...I'm not sure I'd want to risk straining my fingers by clicking on the sell button to realise that gain. It's mid 20s or go home I reckon. Might change my tune after tomorrow though ;)

[see weed]

Well my 1 yr price target is $25, does that answer your question. PS-see weed please rinse your mouth out with soap and water for mentioning that Numpty Morningstar valuation.
LOL. 16.30, just stirring. Washed my mouth out last Sat. with a doz. oysters:cool:.

[sb9]

Not holding my breath for any fireworks at today's ASM. It'll be much same with some improvement in outlook but nothing too huge from what they outlined in their market update given in Sep. We can be assured that there probably won't be another downgrade. Just my thoughts, DYOR.

[alokdhir]

Not holding my breath for any fireworks at today's ASM. It'll be much same with some improvement in outlook but nothing too huge from what they outlined in their market update given in Sep. We can be assured that there probably won't be another downgrade. Just my thoughts, DYOR.

I have a feeling that either way ATM will move in a big way today as it has been looking for direction for quite some time now ....it needs a path for next 3-6 months ..hopefully it will be upwards !

[sb9]

I have a feeling that either way ATM will move in a big way today as it has been looking for direction for quite some time now ....it needs a path for next 3-6 months ..hopefully it will be upwards !

Not expecting any big moves today imo, however depending on outlook commentary it may start to track into higher price trajectory...

[alokdhir]

Not expecting any big moves today imo, however depending on outlook commentary it may start to track into higher price trajectory...

Hopefully they will send the AGM info to NZX around 8:30 AM today before the actual start at 11 AM ...so we will know about updated outlook commentary before market opens ??:D

[ados_nz]

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/ATM/363393/335281.pdf

[winner69]

all boring stuff

The Company’s outlook statement is included at page 24 of the presentation and confirms that the guidance provided in September 2020 is being maintained.

[jimdog31]

all boring stuff

The Company’s outlook statement is included at page 24 of the presentation and confirms that the guidance provided in September 2020 is being maintained.

No mention of Singles day sales either

[sb9]

all boring stuff

The Company’s outlook statement is included at page 24 of the presentation and confirms that the guidance provided in September 2020 is being maintained.

As expected, nothing to see here BAU..

[winner69]

No mention of Singles day sales either

Don't think they mentioned it last year either

Leave that until a current year update or half year result

Might let something slip in question time

[jimdog31]

As expected, nothing to see here BAU..

I agree, there are alot of holders expecting a massive jump off the back of the AGm, but theres nothing to drive that

[sb9]

I agree, there are alot of holders expecting a massive jump off the back of the AGm, but theres nothing to drive that

Its always gonna be mammoth task having given update just as early as in Sep to change tack in less than 2 months time. These things take bit of time to readjust, at least 6-9 months before one can see meaningful traction.

[alokdhir]

Don't think they mentioned it last year either

Leave that until a current year update or half year result

Might let something slip in question time

Did mention 24% English label increase at 11/11 sales

Also noted that reconfirmation of previous guidance is shaky due to ongoing Covid problems ...talked about many assumptions ahead ...makes me wonder !!!

[alokdhir]

Its always gonna be mammoth task having given update just as early as in Sep to change tack in less than 2 months time. These things take bit of time to readjust, at least 6-9 months before one can see meaningful traction.

Please remember they gave strong growth outlook at results commentary on 19th August ...changed to down grade of growth in 40 days time ...

[sb9]

Please remember they gave strong growth outlook at results commentary on 19th August ...changed to down grade of growth in 40 days time ...

Of course they did, remember you come down faster by lift but moving up is very slow by stairs....

[alokdhir]

Of course they did, remember you come down faster by lift but moving up is very slow by stairs....

Agree ...lol :D

[Gregnz]

Did mention 24% English label increase at 11/11 sales

Also noted that reconfirmation of previous guidance is shaky due to ongoing Covid problems ...talked about many assumptions ahead ...makes me wonder !!!

in fairness they wouldn't be re-confirming guidance if their was no hope in hell of it being achieved. I agree with their comment to note volatility from Covid, they are basically saying that if China, Australia, NZ perhaps all ended up back in lockdown with massive outbreaks of Covid, it would be difficult to achieve guidance. Thats fair, given all the unknowns with Covid. Do we even have a vaccine, will it even work??

[couta1]

No 2nd downgrade balance.:D

[couta1]

Did mention 24% English label increase at 11/11 sales

Also noted that reconfirmation of previous guidance is shaky due to ongoing Covid problems ...talked about many assumptions ahead ...makes me wonder !!! Normal conservative narrative from the company, all eyes now on the HY report, if its good then we are off to the races.

[alokdhir]

in fairness they wouldn't be re-confirming guidance if their was no hope in hell of it being achieved. I agree with their comment to note volatility from Covid, they are basically saying that if China, Australia, NZ perhaps all ended up back in lockdown with massive outbreaks of Covid, it would be difficult to achieve guidance. Thats fair, given all the unknowns with Covid. Do we even have a vaccine, will it even work??

Fair enough ! Good part is that no further downgrade as mentioned by many that they come in 3's ...though they left the door open ... Here no one knows the future but its safe to assume that its only going to be better with time on Covid control progress ...

No big rush of selling I see so far ...Ozzy's are unknown here !!! So slow grind up as mentioned by many ...thats positive :t_up:

[Gregnz]

Normal conservative narrative from the company, all eyes now on the HY report, if its good then we are off to the races.

When do we usually see the half year, memory not good. I seem to remember towards end Feb?

[couta1]

When do we usually see the half year, memory not good. I seem to remember towards end Feb? Yep thats the one.

[sb9]

I honestly want Chairman Mr Hearn to go....adds not much value imo being UK domiciled. Sure we can find someone more capable to step in closer to home, here's a thought how about Geoff for Chairman role after he finishes up from his current interim CEO role.

[Getty]

Consolidation, not consolation.

[Beagle]

Pretty much as expected. I expected the caveats and cautions to come out and they have. They are certainly covering their butt with statements like these
• However, due to the volatility arising from COVID-19, and the difficulties this presents with forecasting, naturally there is
uncertainty to this forecast
• We also acknowledge the outlook provides for a significant increase in revenue in the second half, dependent on a
number of key assumptions, including an improvement in the daigou channel and continued growth in our China label
business
• We continue to observe strong underlying brand health metrics, in particular in China, including market share expansion,
and growth of brand awareness and loyalty measures. This gives us confidence that, notwithstanding the current
headwinds, the fundamentals of the business over the medium term remain sound

They are certainly giving themselves plenty of "outs" if things go wrong which is what I expected. Fundamentals over the medium term remain sound is code speak for in the short term the headwinds are fairly strong and challenging.

I'm staying out as I think there's plenty of scope for their assumptions about the second half to be proven to be too optimistic. Time will tell. Good luck to holders.

[Sideshow Bob]

Pretty much as expected. I expected the caveats and cautions to come out and they have. They are certainly covering their butt with statements like these
• However, due to the volatility arising from COVID-19, and the difficulties this presents with forecasting, naturally there is
uncertainty to this forecast
• We also acknowledge the outlook provides for a significant increase in revenue in the second half, dependent on a
number of key assumptions, including an improvement in the daigou channel and continued growth in our China label
business
• We continue to observe strong underlying brand health metrics, in particular in China, including market share expansion,
and growth of brand awareness and loyalty measures. This gives us confidence that, notwithstanding the current
headwinds, the fundamentals of the business over the medium term remain sound

They are certainly giving themselves plenty of "outs" if things go wrong which is what I expected. Fundamentals over the medium term remain sound is code speak for in the short term the headwinds are fairly strong and challenging.

I'm staying out as I think there's plenty of scope for their assumptions about the second half to be proven to be too optimistic. Time will tell. Good luck to holders.

A2 aren't exactly the only company out there "butt covering" with lack of forecasts, caveats and overriding statements.

[couta1]

Pretty much as expected. I expected the caveats and cautions to come out and they have. They are certainly covering their butt with statements like these
• However, due to the volatility arising from COVID-19, and the difficulties this presents with forecasting, naturally there is
uncertainty to this forecast
• We also acknowledge the outlook provides for a significant increase in revenue in the second half, dependent on a
number of key assumptions, including an improvement in the daigou channel and continued growth in our China label
business
• We continue to observe strong underlying brand health metrics, in particular in China, including market share expansion,
and growth of brand awareness and loyalty measures. This gives us confidence that, notwithstanding the current
headwinds, the fundamentals of the business over the medium term remain sound

They are certainly giving themselves plenty of "outs" if things go wrong which is what I expected. Fundamentals over the medium term remain sound is code speak for in the short term the headwinds are fairly strong and challenging.

I'm staying out as I think there's plenty of scope for their assumptions about the second half to be proven to be too optimistic. Time will tell. Good luck to holders. Off course your staying out cause you were hardly ever in anyway.:D

[Beagle]

Off course your staying out cause you were hardly ever in anyway.:D

I'm not going to get into a #$%^ing contest with you on this but what you said is factually incorrect so I will correct it. I did very well in the years up to March 2018 and especially in that year when it went from ~ $3 in March 2017 to $13 in March 2018. All the best with it mate.

[couta1]

I'm not going to get into a pyssing contest with you on this but what you said ifs factually incorrect is will correct it. I did very well in the years up to March 2018 and especially in that when it went from ~ $3 in March 2017 to $13 in March 2018. What was your holding size?

[winner69]

I honestly want Chairman Mr Hearn to go....adds not much value imo being UK domiciled. Sure we can find someone more capable to step in closer to home, here's a thought how about Geoff for Chairman role after he finishes up from his current interim CEO role.

Agree sb9 .....as I’ve said before done his dash. For some weird reason everytime I see or hear him I think of Boris Johnson.

Wouldn’t want Geoff as Chairman either..has been a wasted year having him in their temporarily ....suppose got to blame Hearn for that as well.

[LEMON]

Who cares what his holding was, Beagle has some valid points just like yourself.
No point getting butt hurt cause someone isn't all pro A2M.

[Beagle]

What was your holding size?

I suggest you re-read my comment.

[Baa_Baa]

I did very well in the years up to March 2018 and especially in that when it went from ~ $3 in March 2017 to $13 in March 2018.

That's what speaks volumes about ATM, a couple of $bucks in two years 2018-2020. Have to trade it to make any real money. A confirmation of the first downgrade with heaps of caveats is imo the second downgrade. ATM going nowhere, slowly.

[alokdhir]

Reservations of many people about ATM and its immediate future is very understandable ...But for me risk / reward favours investment or holding strategy as its one of the very few blue chip quality stock available at very reasonable levels ( as risks are involved ) compared to most of the market having over saturated valuations

50-75 % returns in 1-2 years are worth the risk of some short term hiccups .

Just my humble opinion DYOR as always

[Davexl]

Nice start for the day, but will it hold when Aust come online?

[couta1]

Reservations of many people about ATM and its immediate future is very understandable ...But for me risk / reward favours investment or holding strategy as its one of the very few blue chip quality stock available at very reasonable levels ( as risks are involved ) compared to most of the market having over saturated valuations

50-75 % returns in 1-2 years are worth the risk of some short term hiccups .

Just my humble opinion DYOR as always Exactly and bar 2 other stocks i can think of, the rest of the NZX is **** value, I'd rather have my money here or earning next to no interest than paying scorched earth muiltiples.

[Beagle]

That's what speaks volumes about ATM, a couple of $bucks in two years 2018-2020. Have to trade it to make any real money. A confirmation of the first downgrade with heaps of caveats is imo the second downgrade. ATM going nowhere, slowly.

They have certainly very carefully prepared the groundwork for a second downgrade, I don't think there's any dispute about that.
Yes, since April 2018 ATM has materially underperformed the NZX50 which is a long 30 months but for loyal shareholders they're quick to point to the stellar outperformance over longer comparative timeframes which is fair enough but in doing so they rather conveniently (in my opinion), gloss over the evidence that growth is dramatically slowing and the reason FY18 was the last year of stellar share price growth is because that was the last year of stellar eps growth. My nose (which I have come to rely on and trust), tells me there's a LOT of people with emotional attachment issues with ATM. They made so much money in the years up to FY18 its VERY hard to be truly objective now.

[couta1]

They have certainly very carefully prepared the groundwork for a second downgrade, I don't think there's any dispute about that.
Yes, since April 2018 ATM has materially underperformed the NZX50 which is a long 30 months but for loyal shareholders they're quick to point to the stellar outperformance over longer comparative timeframes which is fair enough but in doing so they rather conveniently (in my opinion), gloss over the evidence that growth is dramatically slowing and the reason FY18 was the last year of stellar share price growth is because that was the last year of stellar eps growth. My nose (which I have come to rely on and trust), tells me there's a LOT of people with emotional attachment issues with ATM. They made so much money in the years up to FY18 its VERY hard to be truly objective now. Yes you are right we have made a lot of money and even though some of us are down at the moment, we are still very much in the blue overall. PS-Your comment re the careful preparation of a 2nd downgrade is misleading and a load of ****.

[Balance]

No 2nd downgrade balance.:D

Very happy to acknowledge that fact.

[Beagle]

Exactly and bar 2 other stocks i can think of, the rest of the NZX is **** value, I'd rather have my money here or earning next to no interest than paying scorched earth muiltiples.

OCA, HLG, HGH, TRA are all GARP stocks (Growth at a reasonable price) all on extremely attractive multiples. GNE on 7% gross dividend yield. Excellent stocks on compelling metrics are there for those prepared to open both eyes ;) I better leave you in peace again...I can tell you simply don't want to read anything other than positivity about ATM.

[couta1]

Very happy to acknowledge that fact. Thankyou Balance, you are always willing to admit when your call was off.

[Beagle]

Yes you are right we have made a lot of money and even though some of us are down at the moment, we are still very much in the blue overall. PS-Your comment re the careful preparation of a 2nd downgrade is misleading and a load of ****.

See what I mean folks about being one eyed. Its cringe worthy to watch. Off for another holiday from this thread...Its nauseating to see one's friends unable to see anything objectively and then attack you when you try and help them. Do AIR have any sick bags left ?

[couta1]

See what I mean folks about being one eyed. Its cringe worthy to watch. Off for another holiday from this thread...Its nauseating to see one's friends unable to see anything objectively and then attack you when you try and help them. Do AIR have any sick bags left ? Just calling it as I see it mate, I think your comment on the downgrade preparation required that and would you expect anything less? PS-Im off over to HC to see what the Punters and Trolls have to say over there.

[Gregnz]

I think it’s a bit far fetched to suggest a downgrade is coming based on their comment about volatility from Covid. No business can provide certainty in a Covid environment.

Fresh milk sales are up in all
Markets, Chinese sales are up 77%, store expansion up, Singles day 11/11 sales up 24% on last year.

If we were seeing a deterioration in sales, then yes potentially a downgrade, but not when things are clearly still growing and expanding.

[alokdhir]

Good part about today's commentary about outlook is that both sides think they have a chance . So bulls think worst is over trying take it up strategy while bears think another downgrade or bad results coming and they keep shorting .

In nut shell this will lead to explosive price moments if either side wins decisively ...which will happen eventually !

Hopefully it ends well for Bulls ...as me holding ...lol

So far NZX guys think its positive ...but they are always optimistic about ATM ...Real test of which side dominating will come after 12 PM ...exciting to watch keen and almost equal fight :p

[ba9]

2020 Annual Meeting Link (https://www.virtualmeeting.co.nz/A2MC20)

[Cyclical]

I think it’s a bit far fetched to suggest a downgrade is coming based on their comment about volatility from Covid. No business can provide certainty in a Covid environment.

Absolutely. It would be extremely irresponsible of any company whose bottom line could be impacted by further covid issues to not at least have some butt covering statements in their forecasting. That includes OCA and HLG to name but a couple. Nothing to read here as far as I'm concerned.

[Getty]

Don't forget ATM was a favourite in 5 brokers top 5 picks for 2020.

Not looking special on 10 month graph, so they will tout to get them across the line when Santa's passing out the parcels.

Anyone who doesn't like the multiples on offer here, could always fly off and buy SKO.

[Gregnz]

I like in the meeting how he emphasises "short term" when discussing returning capital to share holders. He even pauses before saying "Short term". I interpret that to me to suggest they are considering dividends in the medium term.

[couta1]

Who cares what his holding was, Beagle has some valid points just like yourself.
No point getting butt hurt cause someone isn't all pro A2M. Actually ill take you up on this point, its easy to trash talk a stock when you are a non holder and its also easy to upramp the crap out of a stock whilst being a very small holder as a % of your portfolio of any given stock. I'd like to see all holders disclose the % of their portfolio that the stock they are commenting on is. At least over at HC you have to put up your sentiment and whether you hold or not which is something. With something like the formentioned in place one could then decide if what any given poster is saying has any value or meaning in relation to any given stock, would also unmask motivations. PS-I'll start the ball rolling, A2 makes up 90% of my portfolio total.:D

[alokdhir]

[QUOTE=Gregnz;857529]I like in the meeting how he emphasises "short term" when discussing returning capital to share holders. He even pauses before saying "Short term". I interpret that to me to suggest they are considering dividends in the medium term.[/QUOTE

That will help stabilise the stock ...after all this company has 10% of its market cap as cash ...which other company can match that ...:t_up:

[Cyclical]

That will help stabilise the stock ...after all this company has 10% of its market cap as cash ...which other company can match that ...:t_up:

Red flag to a bull here for Beagle. HLG. And they actually pay dividends.

[alokdhir]

Red flag to a bull here for Beagle. HLG. And they actually pay dividends.

U cant compare 400 million cap company with 12 Billion cap company ...HLG and ATM are two different class of companies ...;)

[Getty]

Step in, be in, its about to begin.

The volumes say the drawbridge is being pulled up on the sub16 mob.

[couta1]

Step in, be in, its about to begin.

The volumes say the drawbridge is being pulled up on the sub16 mob. Hmm not so sure looking at that Aussie pre open.

[Cyclical]

U cant compare 400 million cap company with 12 Billion cap company ...HLG and ATM are two different class of companies ...;)

You asked the question, I answered it.

[alokdhir]

You asked the question, I answered it.

Thanks buddy ...lol :D

[couta1]

U cant compare 400 million cap company with 12 Billion cap company ...HLG and ATM are two different class of companies ...;) Yeah one sells rags to models and the other sells milk to babies. Lol

[Ted2]

Actually ill take you up on this point, its easy to trash talk a stock when you are a non holder and its also easy to upramp the crap out of a stock whilst being a very small holder as a % of your portfolio of any given stock. I'd like to see all holders disclose the % of their portfolio that the stock they are commenting on is. At least over at HC you have to put up your sentiment and whether you hold or not which is something. With something like the formentioned in place one could then decide if what any given poster is saying has any value or meaning in relation to any given stock, would also unmask motivations. PS-I'll start the ball rolling, A2 makes up 90% of my portfolio total.:D

I'm down to ATM being 88.7% of my portfolio, and this is because no other stock has been able to keep up with it over the last few years! Let your winners run.............
For me today is positive news, confirming that September announcement is still accurate and there are other positive signs right now. A Covid provision would be applicable to any company so I don't read anything into that. Under the old Geoff today's announcement would mean things are actually going to end up better than predicted - not quite so sure these days though!

[Cyclical]

Yeah one sells rags to models and the other sells milk to babies. Lol
Yep, but there would probably be a lot less babies if it weren't for those rags adorning the models...

[Beagle]

-I'll start the ball rolling, A2 makes up 90% of my portfolio total.:D
That is the very reason why you are incapable of calm reasoned debate even when talking to your friends.

Yep, but there would probably be a lot less babies if it weren't for those rags adorning the models...
:lol: :lol:

[alokdhir]

Looks like bears think AGM went their way ...at least after 12 pm open ones ...:scared:

[Ggcc]

Looks like bears think AGM went their way ...at least after 12 pm open ones ...:scared:
Or the shorters are busy at it again

[Justin]

The highlight is Singles day 11/11 sales up 24% on last year. and I believe it achieved by huge discount and tax-free from their boned Warehouse in China and free gift. Still wonder current p/e 29/30 is fair or not.

[Sideshow Bob]

Or the shorters are busy at it again

Would be stoked if you'd bought first thing on the NZX open and in less than 3 hours found yourself almost $1 down.....

[bull....]

just what we needed a update to get the price headed back in the right direction

[DownTownJr]

Bought in around $14.50 at this rate we will be back there in no time lol. Growth slowing, but still a good long term hold.

[couta1]

just what we needed a update to get the price headed back in the right direction Haha and as expected the Troll returns, these Trolls are so predictable, same over at HC.

[couta1]

That is the very reason why you are incapable of calm reasoned debate even when talking to your friends.

:lol: :lol: I'm actually very calm after having sold a good bunch this morning and have now just completed buying more back.PS-Lets go revisit that wage subsidy off market thread to see Beagles definition of calm reasoned debate.:D

[Cyclical]

Whale oil beef oct. Generally positive reaction in our market to begin with, only to be spun around a few hours later with the help of Aussie. Oh well, I'm not about to cry over any spillage...guess I'm in this for the longer haul. To top up or not to top up is the question. Probably a nadda for me at this point, have enough exposure at ~15% of portfolio, plus some passively.

[BlackPeter]

2020 Annual Meeting Link (https://www.virtualmeeting.co.nz/A2MC20)

Impressive Q&A - actually still going on. The first virtual AGM I attend where I do not have the impression that they try to ignore more difficult or inconvenient question - they just address them as they come.

[Cyclical]

That is the very reason why you are incapable of calm reasoned debate even when talking to your friends.

:lol: :lol:


I'm actually very calm after having sold a good bunch this morning and have now just completed buying more back.PS-Lets go revisit that wage subsidy off market thread to see Beagles definition of calm reasoned debate.:D

LOL - You two crack me up. Two peas in a pod if ever there were. Great for entertainment value, keep it up.

[Justin]

wonder shall I buy now or wait $14:scared:

[couta1]

wonder shall I buy now or wait $14:scared: Cant help you with that decision but me old mate Beagle may be able to assist, anyway I'm about to take the dog for a walk in the rain(No it's not a Beagle, its a stubborn terrier)

[Cyclical]

Impressive Q&A - actually still going on. The first virtual AGM I attend where I do not have the impression that they try to ignore more difficult or inconvenient question - they just address them as they come.

Which is a good sign in itself I would have thought. The market obviously isn't that excited about it, but then it's not overly disappointed either, so I guess it's steady as she goes for the time being. Could see some further downward pressure maybe as some of the speculators and those not completely devoted decide it's time to depart...hopefully some of those won't be the larger instos. Will be interesting to see where we head leading up to Xmas, whether we see sub $14 again...if so, it might start to hurt.

[Getty]

Whale oil beef oct. Generally positive reaction in our market to begin with, only to be spun around a few hours later with the help of Aussie. Oh well, I'm not about to cry over any spillage...guess I'm in this for the longer haul. To top up or not to top up is the question. Probably a nadda for me at this point, have enough exposure at ~15% of portfolio, plus some passively.

Where are all those punters that say an Aussie listing is good for the SP when ya need them?

Looks like the Kiwi ewe sheep like a good old shafting from the OZ rams to me.

Now, where's that Aussie sheila I know?

[Beagle]

Cant help you with that decision but me old mate Beagle may be able to assist, anyway I'm about to take the dog for a walk in the rain(No it's not a Beagle, its a stubborn terrier)

They do say people buy dogs that are a reflection of themselves :p