ATM - A2 Milk Corporation Limited

[bull....]

Where are all those punters that say an Aussie listing is good for the SP when ya need them?

Looks like the Kiwi ewe sheep like a good old shafting from the OZ rams to me.

Now, where's that Aussie sheila I know?

kiwi ewes buying up yesterday this morning got a right royal shafting by the aussies alright

[Getty]

Hope they were using protection.
Cant have any A1 in the A2 can we?

[bull....]

Hope they were using protection.
Cant have any A1 in the A2 can we?

down 1.30 from the open ... savage. not surprising they did warn again things are highly uncertain

[Gregnz]

down 1.30 from the open ... savage. not surprising they did warn again things are highly uncertain

I suspect this indicates the market has priced in a downgrade at some point...
question now being what will the market reaction be if one doesn’t eventuate and guidance is met or exceeded at HY.

[couta1]

I suspect this indicates the market has priced in a downgrade at some point...
question now being what will the market reaction be if one doesn’t eventuate and guidance is met or exceeded at HY. Conservative narrative aimed at meeting guidance at HY IMO, a nice way to usher in the new CEO with a skyrocketing sp, current action just more manipulation and gameplaying by the big boys increasing their holdings at the expense of weak holders, turn that 87% into 88% why don't you. Lol

[couta1]

down 1.30 from the open ... savage. not surprising they did warn again things are highly uncertain Not highly uncertain, just uncertain like for every listed company both here and overseas, whats your point?

[Gregnz]

That volume on the asx is certainly impressive. Hilarious as it is, someone on HotCopper suggested it’s because everyone is selling, but as I kindly pointed out, for every seller there must be a buyer.

[couta1]

That volume on the asx is certainly impressive. Hilarious as it is, someone on HotCopper suggested it’s because everyone is selling, but as I kindly pointed out, for every seller there must be a buyer. Everyone is selling except those that really matter. Lol

[bull....]

Not highly uncertain, just uncertain like for every listed company both here and overseas, whats your point?

i think the uncertain bit was highlighted a bit more than last time in the context of things so obviously this uncertainty is weighing on people today. i mean wants to hold something with an unceratin outlook? i like certainty in my life when things are uncertain its a worrying time.

[couta1]

i think the uncertain bit was highlighted a bit more than last time in the context of things so obviously this uncertainty is weighing on people today. i mean wants to hold something with an unceratin outlook? i like certainty in my life when things are uncertain its a worrying time. Nothing about the sharemarket is in anyway certain bull, one nuke and its all custard.

[Cyclical]

down 1.30 from the open ... savage. not surprising they did warn again things are highly uncertain

Currently down less than 5% from yesterday's close. Up a similar amount from the recent low only 2 weeks ago. In percentage terms, it'd be like OCA dropping 6c...big deal. Nothing to see here.

[Gregnz]

A2 is one of the few stocks I hold where the market reacts in very strange ways. I've read thru all the detail from today, all I can see is confirmation of guidance, a 24% increase in singles day 11/11 sales compared with last year, increased market share of liquid milk sales in Australia, and rapidly growing store presence in China and the USA, plus Canada coming onboard.
So yesterday the share price was worth $15.60ish, this morning was $16.29ish, and now its worth less than $15. Seems utterly ludicrous, although it is what it is. There hasn't been a single downgrade to date, merely guidance being delayed and coming in below market expectations some time back. The way the market has re-acted, anyone could be confused for thinking a downgrade actually happened today. What was the market predicting, a profit upgrade in the midst of Covid??

[dompf]

A2 is one of the few stocks I hold where the market reacts in very strange ways. I've read thru all the detail from today, all I can see is confirmation of guidance, a 24% increase in singles day 11/11 sales compared with last year, increased market share of liquid milk sales in Australia, and rapidly growing store presence in China and the USA, plus Canada coming onboard.
So yesterday the share price was worth $15.60ish, this morning was $16.29ish, and now its worth less than $15. Seems utterly ludicrous, although it is what it is. There hasn't been a single downgrade to date, merely guidance being delayed and coming in below market expectations some time back. The way the market has re-acted, anyone could be confused for thinking a downgrade actually happened today. What was the market predicting, a profit upgrade in the midst of Covid??

It’s heavily shorted on asx. Sentiment has downward on it. It’s still a rockstar but currently not on the stage.

[couta1]

A2 is one of the few stocks I hold where the market reacts in very strange ways. I've read thru all the detail from today, all I can see is confirmation of guidance, a 24% increase in singles day 11/11 sales compared with last year, increased market share of liquid milk sales in Australia, and rapidly growing store presence in China and the USA, plus Canada coming onboard.
So yesterday the share price was worth $15.60ish, this morning was $16.29ish, and now its worth less than $15. Seems utterly ludicrous, although it is what it is. There hasn't been a single downgrade to date, merely guidance being delayed and coming in below market expectations some time back. The way the market has re-acted, anyone could be confused for thinking a downgrade actually happened today. What was the market predicting, a profit upgrade in the midst of Covid?? Its all a game and we are but the pawns in it, all legal of course.

[Beagle]

The outlook statement was exactly what I expected. Reiterate the forecast but load up the statement with quite a few caveats and conditions and warnings its based on quite a range of various assumptions, (a very strong disclaimer of liability if the custard hits the fan). They have prepared the groundwork for a downgrade. I have read a lot of outlook statements in my life and very few are loaded with caveats, and thinly veiled warnings like that.

A good comparative example was the Turners outlook statement that simply had this simple statement • Targeting FY21 NPBT to be in the range of $28m to $31m. • This is conditional upon no further substantive lockdowns occurring before year end.

There is a stark difference between how ATM framed their outlook statement language and other companies. The Australians can obviously see it because unlike some Kiwi's with myopic vision they have both eyes wide open.

Smart directors who know there's a very real chance they will have to downgrade again, almost always get their excuses ready and lay the ground work early on.

[couta1]

The outlook statement was exactly what I expected. Reiterate the forecast but load up the statement with quite a few caveats and conditions and warnings its based on quite a range of various assumptions, (a very strong disclaimer of liability if the custard hits the fan). They have prepared the groundwork for a downgrade. I have read a lot of outlook statements in my life and very few are loaded with caveats, and thinly veiled warnings like that.

A good comparative example was the Turners outlook statement that simply had this simple statement • Targeting FY21 NPBT to be in the range of $28m to $31m. • This is conditional upon no further substantive lockdowns occurring before year end.

There is a stark difference between how ATM framed their outlook statement language and other companies. The Australians can obviously see it because unlike some Kiwi's with myopic vision they have both eyes wide open. You had your afternoon nap and you come back talking the same ****. PS-You don't really understand this stock so be a good dog and head back over to the clothing dept. Lol

[RupertBear]

You had your afternoon nap and you come back talking the same ****. PS-You don't really understand this stock so be a good dog and head back over to the clothing dept. Lol

Classic! :lol::lol:

[nztx]

It’s heavily shorted on asx. Sentiment has downward on it. It’s still a rockstar but currently not on the stage.


That's exactly it -- same as what happened this time last year as well

With a bit of luck & given enough rope our Aussie cousins might paint themselves into a position
where they lose the seat out of their grundies .. yet again .. ;)

[Gregnz]

The outlook statement was exactly what I expected. Reiterate the forecast but load up the statement with quite a few caveats and conditions and warnings its based on quite a range of various assumptions, (a very strong disclaimer of liability if the custard hits the fan). They have prepared the groundwork for a downgrade. I have read a lot of outlook statements in my life and very few are loaded with caveats, and thinly veiled warnings like that.

A good comparative example was the Turners outlook statement that simply had this simple statement • Targeting FY21 NPBT to be in the range of $28m to $31m. • This is conditional upon no further substantive lockdowns occurring before year end.

There is a stark difference between how ATM framed their outlook statement language and other companies. The Australians can obviously see it because unlike some Kiwi's with myopic vision they have both eyes wide open.

Smart directors who know there's a very real chance they will have to downgrade again, almost always get their excuses ready and lay the ground work early on.

From my basic viewpoint, 24% growth in 11/11 sales compared with last year, expanding store network, growth in the USA and Australia fresh milk, it would certainly seem very odd for a downgrade to happen. If there was going to be one, today would have been the day. The main markets where A2 sell product, are now in recovery mode (AU, NZ , China), and as the company pointed out they are even seeing signs of recovery in the Daigou channel. What would it take to not meet the re-confirmed guidance, seeing as HY is only 3 months away?

[couta1]

Financial HY has just over 2 months left to run, anyone talking about a downgrade on here is simply clutching at straws and waffling, they have NO concrete basis to their claims whatsoever.

[Gregnz]

Financial HY has just over 2 months left to run, anyone talking about a downgrade on here is simply clutching at straws and waffling, they have NO concrete basis to their claims whatsoever.

The way the sharemarket reacted to meeting guidance for the full financial year and not exceeding it, can we expect another massive sell off when they announce they met guidance in Feb? Lol...

[Justin]

Hi Gregnz the growth speed have to match the current P/E.

[bull....]

A2 Milk wary about meeting reduced sales target
The a2 Milk Company has maintained its lowered September guidance for its 2021 financial outlook but has warned that there is uncertainty to its forecast and it will require an improvement in the daigou channel and continued growth in its China label business

https://www.afr.com/companies/manufacturing/a2-milk-chair-calls-escalating-tensions-with-china-regrettable-20201117-p56ffs

[Gregnz]

Hi Gregnz the growth speed have to match the current P/E.

The growth has hardly changed since the stock was selling for $21.50 back in August?

[Justin]

From my basic viewpoint, 24% growth in 11/11 sales compared with last year, expanding store network, growth in the USA and Australia fresh milk, it would certainly seem very odd for a downgrade to happen. If there was going to be one, today would have been the day. The main markets where A2 sell product, are now in recovery mode (AU, NZ , China), and as the company pointed out they are even seeing signs of recovery in the Daigou channel. What would it take to not meet the re-confirmed guidance, seeing as HY is only 3 months away?


The growth has hardly changed since the stock was selling for $21.50 back in August?

The market not always right, and 45p/e means 50% revenues growth IMHO . But if it’s down to 25 or 20% of revenue growth, the p/e have to adjust to 23 or 25 IMHO.

[Caribbean]

Did anybody else catch the comment regarding Mataura valley during Q&A from the chair that was something along the lines of ultimately wanting to to get registration for it (If it goes ahead) Now I assume he was referring to SAMR registration which is required to sell china label in MBS on the ground in China.

With SML having a exclusive supply arrangement for IF in Asia Pacific, and currently building the Pokeno plant(Which doesn't yet have SAMR registration? ) are they expecting to exceed SMLs supply capacity or will there be some kind of agreement in the name of diversification??

They sure must have some lofty IF demand forecasts going forward for MBS in China.

[couta1]

A2 Milk wary about meeting reduced sales target


The a2 Milk Company has maintained its lowered September guidance for its 2021 financial outlook but has warned that there is uncertainty to its forecast and it will require an improvement in the daigou channel and continued growth in its China label business

https://www.afr.com/companies/manufacturing/a2-milk-chair-calls-escalating-tensions-with-china-regrettable-20201117-p56ffs
Expect bull to put up every negative or slightly negative article he can find over the next while, thinks he can influence the status of a 10 billion dollar companies sp, in reality the best he can do is make a few already nervous holders press the sell button to help achieve his own selfish goals.

[Gregnz]

Did anybody else catch the comment regarding Mataura valley during Q&A from the chair that was something along the lines of ultimately wanting to to get registration for it (If it goes ahead) Now I assume he was referring to SAMR registration which is required to sell china label in MBS on the ground in China.

With SML having a exclusive supply arrangement for IF in Asia Pacific, and currently building the Pokeno plant(Which doesn't yet have SAMR registration? ) are they expecting to exceed SMLs supply capacity or will there be some kind of agreement in the name of diversification??

They sure must have some lofty IF demand forecasts going forward for MBS in China.

Yes he said that they only get the licence to sell in China based on manufacturing the product. Initially that license came via Synlait, but they wish to diversify via Mataura so all their eggs aren’t in one basket. That’s what I took from it.

[Baa_Baa]

Pure TA no emotion … SP reversed at 50MA, price support comes in at previous recent lows, the gap to $13 comes into play if that support fails.

[Beagle]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/a2-milk-committed-to-daigou-sales-channel-despite-cloudy-earnings-outlook/HCNTUDUTVPZFFS3O5TEXP5T3CU/ Paywalled article.

Mark Lister, head of private wealth research at Craigs Investment Partners said the share price reflected caution about what may lie ahead. "We like the long-term a2 Milk story but we are a little bit cautious about the short term," "The second half will be a tough one for them and it still feels like there is still a lot of uncertainty in terms of getting things back on track," he said.
"I still feel that the Australian market reaction was the right one," "A2 Milk still stacks up over the long term, but I think the next six months will be quite challenging,"

[couta1]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/a2-milk-committed-to-daigou-sales-channel-despite-cloudy-earnings-outlook/HCNTUDUTVPZFFS3O5TEXP5T3CU/ Paywalled article.

Mark Lister, head of private wealth research at Craigs Investment Partners said the share price reflected caution about what may lie ahead. "We like the long-term a2 Milk story but we are a little bit cautious about the short term," "The second half will be a tough one for them and it still feels like there is still a lot of uncertainty in terms of getting things back on track," he said.
"I still feel that the Australian market reaction was the right one," "A2 Milk still stacks up over the long term, but I think the next six months will be quite challenging,"

The key sentences there are "We like the Long term A2 story" and "A2 still stacks up over the long term" News flash A2 has always been a long term investment and will reward holders accordingly, short term it is a Game of Thrones.

[Ggcc]

The key sentences there are "We like the Long term A2 story" and "A2 still stacks up over the long term" News flash A2 has always been a long term investment and will reward holders accordingly, short term it is a Game of Thrones.
So just be silent and let the trolls troll. I am invested as well, but will not fight bull or beagle or anyone who disagrees with me every day. Ps I am not calling them trolls lol. Shorters and traders make money in the short term and we will make money in the longterm. Just be happy everyone is making money. 😊

[Motley Crew]

So just be silent and let the trolls troll. I am invested as well, but will not fight bull or beagle or anyone who disagrees with me every day. Ps I am not calling them trolls lol. Shorters and traders make money in the short term and we will make money in the longterm. Just be happy everyone is making money. 

Agree. Sticking to my posts on 28 / 29 September. The time to top up on A2 will be when 'the time is right' and SP stability returns. That isn't going to happen short term with market nervousness and uncertainty surrounding A2's trading. I predict the SP will jump 10%+ on the day that A2 announces that the trading uncertainty of the covid environment is diminishing, and prospects for the future have 'normalised' with a positive outlook. That is still some time away obviously, but not being invested where you want to be before that day by trying to be too 'cute' with your timing of the market means missing out on the easy money of first leg of the recovery. In the overall scheme of things, a year of weak SP performance is but a minor blip and an opportunity to ride the recovery. You can analyse and agonise all you like in the meantime, but the recovery will come. Just be part of it and get in before lift off.

[bull....]

Expect bull to put up every negative or slightly negative article he can find over the next while, thinks he can influence the status of a 10 billion dollar companies sp, in reality the best he can do is make a few already nervous holders press the sell button to help achieve his own selfish goals.

the story was posted by the afr yesterday and gives there perpective on the days events. its helps your investing by reading different takes. you never know couta you might have missed something in your research

[couta1]

So just be silent and let the trolls troll. I am invested as well, but will not fight bull or beagle or anyone who disagrees with me every day. Ps I am not calling them trolls lol. Shorters and traders make money in the short term and we will make money in the longterm. Just be happy everyone is making money.  Not going to be silent if I discern the motives of posters is tainted in order to try and cause weaker holders to sell their shares unnecessarily, this site is relatively Troll free compared to HC where you have not only garden variety Trolls but broking company sluts paid to be so. I don't post much on other company threads as I'm a non holder but as a substantial holder in this company and very well researched, I will continue to make my point as any substantial owner of a great business would and should.

[see weed]

I have a seat on both sides of the fence. I have a long term holding of 30 odd k av price a bit over $3 and have a floating or trading of about 50 to 60k. So am thankful for the shorters and down rampers to be able to buy cheap shares:t_up:.

[alokdhir]

Not going to be silent if I discern the motives of posters is tainted in order to try and cause weaker holders to sell their shares unnecessarily, this site is relatively Troll free compared to HC where you have not only garden variety Trolls but broking company sluts paid to be so. I don't post much on other company threads as I'm a non holder but as a substantial holder in this company and very well researched, I will continue to make my point as any substantial owner of a great business would and should.

As a big holder myself . I asked myself that question when I first read their yesterday's FY 21 outlook commentary . I was the first one who posted here saying or showing that they have worded it in a manner which shows they themselves dont actually fully agree or believe in what they saying ...its more like a maybe rather then Yes or NO . As mentioned by me in my next post that there is something there for both Bulls and Bears...NZX was the Bull and ASX Bear ...rest we know ...

The main question is whether its a SELL or a HOLD now after all know what to expect in the next 3-6 months ( talking of Maybe response of company yesterday )
I did very deep thinking on that about my position and came to conclusion that as a long term investor I need to hold and ride thru this uncertainty ...here I just need to know if company is quality and investment grade with good pedigree ...which surely ATM is being number 2 company of NZ ..also helped by my most regarded Portfolio Manager Mr Sam Dickie of Fisher Funds ( Best Expert on NZ equities as per me ) . He has ATM as its main pick in all his NZ funds including KFL and their flagship NZ Growth Fund .

Yes we will see SP moving in opposite direction also in next 3-6 months but surely it will be much higher then where it is now in 12-18 months in my IMHO ....thats is my only basis of holding ( why it will be higher that Sam can tell u better then me ...lol )

Now coming to debates here about SP of ATM ...it depends upon what is your time frame ...if you a short term trader then it will offer more opportunities on the downside like yesterday ...for them its a sell all rebounds .
But if u are a buy and hold types then its a Buy and forget for 2 years ...pretty sure you will be very handsomely rewarded .

Normally a time to invest long term in a stock is when its going thru trouble ...as thats when u get your best entry options ...but u should be prepared for some notional losses in the short term .

This is my thought process of how I decided to Hold ATM after yesterday company communication

[winner69]

See quite a few of us (about 5% who votes cast) wanted Hearn out

Hope he gets the message

[whome]

ATM sp is part of the slow and steady COVID recovery story. There was never going to be a magic sp recovery story while daigou was severely curtailed by no air travel between Oz and China. Diagou is acknowledged by ATM as an important and well established distribution channel out of Oz to China. Recovery will come when regular Oz - China air flights become possible again. There are 240 vaccines on trial around the world. Barely a week ago 2 vaccines were close to release. More will follow, people will be vaccinated and the infection rates will fall. The world will recover and so will ATM sp, slowly and steadily. Discl. Holder - ATM a major cornerstone of portfolio.

[whome]

See quite a few of us (about 5% who votes cast) wanted Hearn out

Hope he gets the message
I disagree. Going back, Hearn did well to steady the ship at the AGM that had to deal with the Herdlicker disaster. Better the devil we know ...

[HKG2301]

Fascinating reading this thread, surreal in places. Hard to believe that anyone in an investors forum would admit to having 90% of their portfolio invested in a single share – let alone be proud of it! It smacks of speculation (if not outright gambling) which makes emotionless, clear thinking on the subject almost impossible. Witness the bias here to only positive, bullish comments. No room for healthy, pro & con discussion, that would be dis-loyal!

We live in interesting times. Much of the investing world is in denial about the paradigm-busting economic & social effects of Covid, which is not surprising given the hot mess in the US. IMO, most markets are way overpriced, but out of challenge comes opportunity and some shares will benefit going forward. Many others will sink without trace. Difficult to say which, when risk abounds: a global plague, a madman in the White House, power-struggles in (and from) China. And who’s to say there’s not another black swan lurking?

Personally, I see ATM as one of the winners and shake my head at the NZX-ASX battle that’s going on, which can take the share price from +4% to -5% on the day of a relatively good Annual Report. However, the balance of risk is positive: down-side, perhaps $13-ish v’s upside, a return to the $20 range. China will decide, ultimately, not the shorters. In fact, I’m rather looking forward to the inevitable short squeeze. Hence accumulating at these levels...

Just my tuppence worth.

[Beagle]

Agree. Sticking to my posts on 28 / 29 September. The time to top up on A2 will be when 'the time is right' and SP stability returns. That isn't going to happen short term with market nervousness and uncertainty surrounding A2's trading. I predict the SP will jump 10%+ on the day that A2 announces that the trading uncertainty of the covid environment is diminishing, and prospects for the future have 'normalised' with a positive outlook. That is still some time away obviously, but not being invested where you want to be before that day by trying to be too 'cute' with your timing of the market means missing out on the easy money of first leg of the recovery. In the overall scheme of things, a year of weak SP performance is but a minor blip and an opportunity to ride the recovery. You can analyse and agonise all you like in the meantime, but the recovery will come. Just be part of it and get in before lift off.

Its clear to me from his comments to the N.Z. Herald that the well experienced Mark Lister of Craig's has genuine doubts about their ability to meet the challenging goal presented by their second half sales forecast.

Nobody is disputing that ATM has been a great long term story. I doubt any serious long term investor would be especially perturbed by a year of share price weakness and this would be a minor blip except for the fact that we're into our third year of share price weakness now and the shares have dramatically underperformed the NZX50 since March 2018 when they were $13. This fact should have people scratching their head wondering if the fabulous eps growth rates experienced in the past which have driven market outperformance will ever return ? A gain of only $1.80 in the 30 months since March 2018 and all the while with no dividends being paid is not a minor blip and represents quite a dramatic underperformance against the NZX50.

In my opinion shareholders are right to be concerned by the current slowdown, (nobody is actually talking about how forecasted sales this half are down on last year) and right to wonder if the company can meet its lofty 2H sales projections which even if achieved will lead to only a minor uptick in eps 53 cps v 52 cps last year (according to average analyst forecasts on market screener).

The Herdlicker appointment was an abject failure by the board, (called by me very early on with her appointment) and one wonders if the new guy will be any good ?

https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/THE-A2-MILK-COMPANY-LIMIT-11384022/financials/ Currently on a forward PE of 27.7. I think that's expensive for a company that's presently forecast not to grow this year and if my hunch is right, actually experience eps decline. Looking further out analysts have lofty expectations for growth in FY22 and beyond. Time will tell.

I see plenty of challenges ahead am pleased to have exited at $13 in March 2018. The shares are up by only 13.8% in the last 30 months against the NZX50 which is up 59%.

Of course I accept that there have been some phenomenal years of growth in the past and every man and his dog has pointed to the long term index outperformance. My key point is I believe the best years of growth are behind this company and the best years of leadership probably are as well.

I share Mark Lister's skepticism about their lofty sales target for the second half. I hope I am wrong as I have a significant stake in Kingfish and they have a significant stake in ATM.

[couta1]

Fascinating reading this thread, surreal in places. Hard to believe that anyone in an investors forum would admit to having 90% of their portfolio invested in a single share – let alone be proud of it! It smacks of speculation (if not outright gambling) which makes emotionless, clear thinking on the subject almost impossible. Witness the bias here to only positive, bullish comments. No room for healthy, pro & con discussion, that would be dis-loyal!

We live in interesting times. Much of the investing world is in denial about the paradigm-busting economic & social effects of Covid, which is not surprising given the hot mess in the US. IMO, most markets are way overpriced, but out of challenge comes opportunity and some shares will benefit going forward. Many others will sink without trace. Difficult to say which, when risk abounds: a global plague, a madman in the White House, power-struggles in (and from) China. And who’s to say there’s not another black swan lurking?

Personally, I see ATM as one of the winners and shake my head at the NZX-ASX battle that’s going on, which can take the share price from +4% to -5% on the day of a relatively good Annual Report. However, the balance of risk is positive: down-side, perhaps $13-ish v’s upside, a return to the $20 range. China will decide, ultimately, not the shorters. In fact, I’m rather looking forward to the inevitable short squeeze. Hence accumulating at these levels...

Just my tuppence worth. Need more honesty on these forums I reckon, many on here hold over 70% of their total portfolio in this stock, put all your eggs in one strong basket and watch that basket closely. I have no problem with opposing views that come from the right motive but I'm very good at sniffing out ulterior ones and will call them out eg Baa_Baa put up a TA post here last night which was fine as he's straight up so no problem with that.

[alokdhir]

Not expecting any big moves today imo, however depending on outlook commentary it may start to track into higher price trajectory...

https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/images/misc/quote_icon.png Originally Posted by alokdhir https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/images/buttons/viewpost-right.png (https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?p=857416#post857416)
I have a feeling that either way ATM will move in a big way today as it has been looking for direction for quite some time now ....it needs a path for next 3-6 months ..hopefully it will be upwards !



Not expecting any big moves today imo, however depending on outlook commentary it may start to track into higher price trajectory...

From positive + 4.5 % to minus - 5.5 % ie almost $ 1.6 range of yesterday ...its definitely a big range as per me buddy !!

Though I was not expecting this kind of move ...but I was expecting a big range as it was being coiled up for long ...yesterday both sides showed their hand ...Bears won as it must be very short term players unwinding in disappointment .

Let the dust settle and hope it doesn't break last low of 13.96 as that will be food for bears ...fingers crossed :D

[winner69]

Beagle - thought you had gone into bag of interesting words with skecticim ...got it eventually

Kingfish been buying quite a few of late by the looks of it ....are they helping the 87% go to 88%...and become long term believers in a good story

[couta1]

Its clear to me from his comments to the N.Z. Herald that the well experienced Mark Lister of Craig's has genuine doubts about their ability to meet the challenging goal presented by their second half sales forecast.

Nobody is disputing that ATM has been a great long term story. I doubt any serious long term investor would be especially perturbed by a year of share price weakness and this would be a minor blip except for the fact that we're into our third year of share price weakness now and the shares have dramatically underperformed the NZX50 since March 2018 when they were $13. This fact should have people scratching their head wondering if the fabulous eps growth rates experienced in the past which have driven market outperformance will ever return ? A gain of only $1.80 in the 30 months since March 2018 and all the while with no dividends being paid is not a minor blip and represents quite a dramatic underperformance against the NZX50.

In my opinion shareholders are right to be concerned by the current slowdown, (nobody is actually talking about how forecasted sales this half are down on last year) and right to wonder if the company can meet its lofty 2H sales projections which even if achieved will lead to only a minor uptick in eps 53 cps v 52 cps last year (according to average analyst forecasts on market screener).

The Herdlicker appointment was an abject failure by the board, (called by me very early on with her appointment) and one wonders if the new guy will be any good ?

https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/THE-A2-MILK-COMPANY-LIMIT-11384022/financials/ Currently on a forward PE of 27.7. I think that's expensive for a company that's presently forecast not to grow this year and if my hunch is right, actually experience eps decline. Looking further out analysts have lofty expectations for growth in FY22 and beyond. Time will tell.

I see plenty of challenges ahead am pleased to have exited at $13 in March 2018. The shares are up by only 13.8% in the last 30 months against the NZX50 which is up 59%.

Of course I accept that there have been some phenomenal years of growth in the past and every man and his dog has pointed to the long term index outperformance. My key point is I believe the best years of growth are behind this company and the best years of leadership probably are as well.

I share Mark Lister's skepticism about their lofty sales target for the second half. I hope I am wrong as I have a significant stake in Kingfish and they have a significant stake in ATM. Your highlighted bit about the best yrs of growth being behind this company is pure speculation, even with a slowing its still a growth machine and your obsession with PE ratios is so yesterday, for me the PE is very modest for the potential and big future ahead. PS-If you think the sp isnt going to keep advancing in a healthy way from here then your barking mad.

[Beagle]

Beagle - thought you had gone into bag of interesting words with skecticim ...got it eventually

Kingfish been buying quite a few of late by the looks of it ....are they helping the 87% go to 88%...and become long term believers in a good story

Its early in the day, thank goodness for spell checker lol. Chief investment officer at Kingfish, Sam Dickie has done okay in the last few years, outperformed the NZX50 by 4.3% per annum after expenses, (source yesterday's monthly KFL newsletter, NAV to NAV after fees over the last 3 years), which is no easy feat but its well behind his peers at BRM and MLN, probably in no small measure because of ATM's weak share price performance in recent years. I think he's barking up the wrong tree but I can't stop him doing that and KFL does plug a lot of gaps in my portfolio, even the odd one I don't want plugged ;)

[bull....]

Need more honesty on these forums I reckon, many on here hold over 70% of their total portfolio in this stock, put all your eggs in one strong basket and watch that basket closely. I have no problem with opposing views that come from the right motive but I'm very good at sniffing out ulterior ones and will call them out eg Baa_Baa put up a TA post here last night which was fine as he's straight up so no problem with that.

ive been very honest in my talk about the price going down since $20 and even backed it up with fundamentals.

[couta1]

ive been very honest in my talk about the price going down since $20 and even backed it up with fundamentals. Yes but your here as a shorter to try and shake out weak holders with your constant negative talk.

[HKG2301]

Need more honesty on these forums I reckon, many on here hold over 70% of their total portfolio in this stock, put all your eggs in one strong basket and watch that basket closely. I have no problem with opposing views that come from the right motive but I'm very good at sniffing out ulterior ones and will call them out eg Baa_Baa put up a TA post here last night which was fine as he's straight up so no problem with that.

My point exactly. This smacks of 'thought police'. Do we really need a self-appointed judge to examine every post, to tell us which passes the 'couta test' and which doesn't?

Example: I disagree with much of Beagle's last post above. It's painfully selective, ignoring the SP being in the $18 - $21.50 range for 5 months of the year to date. However I share his concerns about a possible slowdown. On balance, I think this correction from the $21 level is healthy but overdone, an opportunity to accumulate. All interesting to discuss though, and I respect his/her opinion.

I don't need Constable Couta to vet every post and tell me what is and isn't acceptable. Once maybe - you have a right to your opinion as well - but several times a day?

[alokdhir]

Its early in the day, thank goodness for spell checker lol. Chief investment officer at Kingfish, Sam Dickie has done okay in the last few years, outperformed the NZX50 by 4.3% per annum after expenses, (source yesterday's monthly KFL newsletter, NAV to NAV after fees over the last 3 years), which is no easy feat but its well behind his peers at BRM and MLN, probably in no small measure because of ATM's weak share price performance in recent years. I think he's barking up the wrong tree but I can't stop him doing that and KFL does plug a lot of gaps in my portfolio, even the odd one I don't want plugged ;)

I still value his judgment a lot about NZ equites ...They had MPG in portfolio a while back ...maybe u wont be knowing as u r a recent fan of KFL ...I assume that ..so pardon me if I am wrong ...But they had the courage to exit it fully when they saw what they didn't like ....more recently they took small position in FBU and then again exited fully stating they can use that capital better .

Point I am trying to make here is that ATM is 13% of their all NZ equity portfolios which is a major position for any portfolio ...U dont take such big positions without having great conviction about the long term story of the stock , also they have shown before that they are ready to exit positions fully as soon as they start getting bad vibes ...like MPG and FBU etc

So I am more inclined to go with his conviction of long term story being intact in ATM as I respect his all judgments not the ones which are suiting at the moment .

VGL story they believe so much that they added to their position and still bullish about it !

[couta1]

My point exactly. This smacks of 'thought police'. Do we really need a self-appointed judge to examine every post, to tell us which passes the 'couta test' and which doesn't.

Example: I disagree with much of Beagle's last post above. It's painfully selective, ignoring the SP being in the $18 - $21.50 range for 5 months of the year to date. However I share his concerns about a possible slowdown. On balance, I think this correction from the $21 level is healthy but overdone, an opportunity to accumulate. All interesting to discuss though, and I respect his/her opinion.

I don't need Constable Couta to vet every post and tell me what is and isn't acceptable. Once maybe - you have a right to your opinion as well - but several times a day? The Trolls and serial down rampers are constantly called out over at HC and rightly so, I gave up doing so and put the Top 6 offenders on ignore cause there are plenty of other LT holders doing the job, fortunately not many on this forum. PS-If I have time on my hands like I do currently I post a lot if need be and its not up to you to determine someone's posting frequentcy. PPS-On a slightly more humorous note, I didn't post for many months full stop and wasn't even going to return to the forum until Beagle and a few others talked me back here.:eek2:

[Ggcc]

ive been very honest in my talk about the price going down since $20 and even backed it up with fundamentals.
You have and I agree you are no troll. You are just helping traders

[Beagle]

I still value his judgment a lot about NZ equites ...They had MPG in portfolio a while back ...maybe u wont be knowing as u r a recent fan of KFL ...I assume that ..so pardon me if I am wrong ...But they had the courage to exit it fully when they saw what they didn't like ....more recently they took small position in FBU and then again exited fully stating they can use that capital better .

Point I am trying to make here is that ATM is 13% of their all NZ equity portfolios which is a major position for any portfolio ...U dont take such big positions without having great conviction about the long term story of the stock , also they have shown before that they are ready to exit positions fully as soon as they start getting bad vibes ...like MPG and FBU etc

So I am more inclined to go with his conviction of long term story being intact in ATM as I respect his all judgments not the ones which are suiting at the moment .

VGL story they believe so much that they added to their position and still bullish about it !

Fair enough mate and as mentioned above I respect that he's done well to beat the NZX50 after their fees and expenses by 4.3% per annum over the last 3 years. They got out of ZEL too which has turned out to be a very wise decision. Buying up large in SUM recently also looks to have been an astute call.

[Beagle]

Fascinating reading this thread, surreal in places. Hard to believe that anyone in an investors forum would admit to having 90% of their portfolio invested in a single share – let alone be proud of it! It smacks of speculation (if not outright gambling) which makes emotionless, clear thinking on the subject almost impossible. Witness the bias here to only positive, bullish comments. No room for healthy, pro & con discussion, that would be dis-loyal!

We live in interesting times. Much of the investing world is in denial about the paradigm-busting economic & social effects of Covid, which is not surprising given the hot mess in the US. IMO, most markets are way overpriced, but out of challenge comes opportunity and some shares will benefit going forward. Many others will sink without trace. Difficult to say which, when risk abounds: a global plague, a madman in the White House, power-struggles in (and from) China. And who’s to say there’s not another black swan lurking?

Personally, I see ATM as one of the winners and shake my head at the NZX-ASX battle that’s going on, which can take the share price from +4% to -5% on the day of a relatively good Annual Report. However, the balance of risk is positive: down-side, perhaps $13-ish v’s upside, a return to the $20 range. China will decide, ultimately, not the shorters. In fact, I’m rather looking forward to the inevitable short squeeze. Hence accumulating at these levels...

Just my tuppence worth.

Post of the week !! Regarding your first paragraph, it is indeed totally surreal. It simply beggars belief ! Your first paragraph should give someone on here cause for reflection and thought.
Unfortunately some people are incorrigible and incapable of reform. I have bolded it up so maybe the chance is 1% more than zero ?

[alokdhir]

Fair enough mate and as mentioned above I respect that he's done well to beat the NZX50 after their fees and expenses by 4.3% per annum over the last 3 years. They got out of ZEL too which has turned out to be a very wise decision. Buying up large in SUM recently also looks to have been an astute call.

Please refresh my memory about when they had ZEL in portfolio ...maybe me getting old ...cant remember ...lol

Also sometimes they compare performance as total shareholder returns which is reflecting market SP of the fund rather then NAV return ..

At this moment due to retail rush for divvy payers its much over its intrinsic value of portfolio which as per me is around 1.76 ( including the 6 cents dilution happening soon ) compared to 1.92 as SP

From July onwards SP has outperformed Index ...not the intrinsic NAV similar stories with BRM and MLN . Though I agree that they doing well overall .Great buy and forget stories around NAV price not at these kind of premiums

So if u are a long term investor who doesn't bother playing the market then SP premium over NAV doesn't matter and should not be counted as extra returns ..IMHO

[macduffy]

Let's remember that this forum is Sharetrader and that trading includes holding short positions as well as long. I don't short - investing long is difficult enough for an old'un - but I respect the right of those that do to talk their book.

Disc: Holding small position in ATM - probably less than 2% of an overly diversified portfolio.

[Beagle]

Please refresh my memory about when they had ZEL in portfolio ...maybe me getting old ...cant remember ...lol

Also sometimes they compare performance as total shareholder returns which is reflecting market SP of the fund rather then NAV return ..

At this moment due to retail rush for divvy payers its much over its intrinsic value of portfolio which as per me is around 1.76 ( including the 6 cents dilution happening soon ) compared to 1.92 as SP

From July onwards SP has outperformed Index ...not the intrinsic NAV similar stories with BRM and MLN . Though I agree that they doing well overall .Great buy and forget stories around NAV price not at these kind of premiums

So if u are a long term investor who doesn't bother playing the market then SP premium over NAV doesn't matter and should not be counted as extra returns ..IMHO

It was a few years ago mate. Like me I don't think they were impressed with Mike Bennett's "leadership" Yeah some of the premiums to NTA with the group at present have me scratching my head. I have never seen anything like them before but then again their funds have been consistently outperforming the index in recent years so maybe people are prepared to pay for that now especially in light of the 8% tax free yield ? Elderly investors desperate for reliable high tax free yield ? Yes NAV to NAV after expenses is how I look at their performance and its been good !

Suppose we better get back to discussing ATM before the thought police get upset.

[Waltzing]

14 - 60 , might as well say its a 6 times price test. support extends here. short term long term... its has little meaning as you can be both over portfolios and therefore only tax determines trading from investing. It simply means how much back office automation you own.

[alokdhir]

It was a few years ago mate. Like me I don't think they were impressed with Mike Bennett's "leadership"

Thanks buddy !!

[alokdhir]

14 - 60 , might as well say its a double bottom.. support extends here. short term long term... its has little meaning as you can be both over portfolios and therefore only tax determines trading from investing. It simply means how much back office automation you own.

We cant say double bottom as yet ...lets at least test 14 again for next few days ...then we can sure of double bottom if it doesn't break ...IMHO

[Waltzing]

"14 - 60 , might as well say its a 6 times price test?"

looks like this range has been tested many times.

The situation with china and its political pressure tactics must be factored into prices. Geo risk for this stock is high.

DISC: previous holder and hope to again.

[Ruby]

I hear ya couta,I finally had enough over on HC,put a whole lot on ignore & suggested everyone stop giving them oxygen by not posting anything today as a social experiment..."radio silence" lol

[HKG2301]

Let's remember that this forum is Sharetrader and that trading includes holding short positions as well as long. I don't short - investing long is difficult enough for an old'un - but I respect the right of those that do to talk their book.

Disc: Holding small position in ATM - probably less than 2% of an overly diversified portfolio.

A very good point. I don't short in the NZ market, as shorting through options is my preferred tool, but I'm often very short the US markets. It's a natural part of my investments there, and it's still 'trading'.

[Davexl]

"14 - 60 , might as well say its a 6 times price test?"

looks like this range has been tested many times.

The situation with china and its political pressure tactics must be factored into prices. Geo risk for this stock is high.

DISC: previous holder and hope to again.

Agree Geo-risk IS high ATM. Against my better judgement have a significant shareholding bought at $20 so underwater...
However with high risk comes high reward, (see this mornings SMH 'China Relations' headline), situation between Aust-China needs to improve first and Biden's moderation will surely help calm the testiness down. ATM is after all a NZ company - right?

[Sideshow Bob]

Once again, the ASX knocks out the NZX enthusiasm.

Why would anyone buy on the NZX before the opening in Oz??

[Getty]

Yeah, I've just spent the morning sharpening my sword.

I'm either gonna behead the first Aussie I come across, or I may fall on it yet...

[couta1]

Decided I'm going to take an extended break from the forum, my wife won't let me have the changed password for 6 months to start, after that I doubt I'll be back. I'm a go big or go home kinda person and have excelled in quite a few areas of life because of that and I'm not about to change a formula that has worked well for me through the years. Some no doubt will be happy to see me go, thats their prerogative, it is what it is. Adios Couta.

[Gregnz]

Once again, the ASX knocks out the NZX enthusiasm.

Why would anyone buy on the NZX before the opening in Oz??

Begs the question, why are companies so desperate for a ASX listing? Is it simply to open the company up to more investors?

[Snow Leopard]

Decided I'm going to take an extended break from the forum, my wife won't let me have the changed password for 6 months to start, after that I doubt I'll be back. I'm a go big or go home kinda person and have excelled in quite a few areas of life because of that and I'm not about to change a formula that has worked well for me through the years. Some no doubt will be happy to see me go, thats their prerogative, it is what it is. Adios Couta.

12100

For whom the milk spills.

[Beagle]

Decided I'm going to take an extended break from the forum, my wife won't let me have the changed password for 6 months to start, after that I doubt I'll be back. I'm a go big or go home kinda person and have excelled in quite a few areas of life because of that and I'm not about to change a formula that has worked well for me through the years. Some no doubt will be happy to see me go, thats their prerogative, it is what it is. Adios Couta.

Has it really worked that well mate ? As I have said many times to you before I often think you and your family would be better off with a very sizeable part of your money split evenly between Kingfish, Barramundi and Marlin. Please spend some time reflecting upon what the Bible says about diversification https://www.randelltiongson.com/diversification-according-to-investopedia-and-the-bible/

“But divide your investments among many places,
for you do not know what risks might lie ahead.”

— Ecclesiastes 11:2. New Living Translation.

[Getty]

mmm, but isnt that the same book that says 'go forth & multiply'?

[Greekwatchdog]

For Barrs brief update

Baby Steps Forward


OUTPERFORM
The a2 Milk Company's (ATM) Annual Meeting provided little in the way of new information, reiterating its FY21 guidance. A
positive takeaway was indications of "early green shoots" in the under-pressure daigou channel. ATM's channel mix is shifting
rapidly, with strong performance in direct channels being overshadowed by daigou pressure. We view this as temporary and
expect a return to growth from 2H21. Current investor focus appears firmly centered on FY21 earnings downgrade risk,
which is unlikely to be resolved until the timeline of daigou re-ordering and realignment of channels is clearer. Looking
through short-term earnings volatility, we see an attractive medium-term growth runway, with our confidence boosted by
recent proprietary channel checks in the key offline market. Valuation metrics remain attractive (PE of ~25x, or ~21x adjusted
for cash and US losses), particularly given ATM's strong free cashflow generation and high returns. OUTPERFORM.
What's changed?
What did we learn from the Annual Meeting?
Key issue creating debate — when will growth return and is there a downgrade still to come?
Market attention appears centered on one over-arching question — will ATM downgrade its FY21 (particularly 2H21) guidance?
Despite the reiteration of guidance and channel commentary, which if anything was incrementally more positive than the last update,
this question will likely remain an overhang until the 2H21 outlook is clearer. ATM is going through a dramatic, rapid shift in channel
mix which makes forecasting more challenging than usual. The issues are well known, however, the timeline (particularly of daigou reordering) is less clear. Our analysis suggests the share price is already factoring in some of the risk (c. 70%). Even under
our downgrade scenario we see attractive value (valuation multiples lift by c. 2x).

[Getty]

Basic Question.

If ya cant get ya opium through ya daigou channel, wouldnt ya just get it online, or down at ya flaming local stockist???

[Beagle]

mmm, but isnt that the same book that says 'go forth & multiply'?

It says many things but about investing it is very clear. https://christiananswers.net/q-eden/investment-wisdom.html
Proverbs - My favorite book in the Bible, second favorite is Ecclesiastes which contains therein a detailed analysis of the many ironies and conundrums of life.

[Getty]

Qex didnt have any trouble emptying their warehouse...

[Getty]

It says many things but about investing its is very clear. https://christiananswers.net/q-eden/investment-wisdom.html
Proverbs - My favorite book in the Bible, second favorite is Ecclesiastes which contains therein a detailed analysis of the many ironies and conundrums of life.

I thought there must be a reason it was a best seller.

[Getty]

I just had a brainwave.

Why doesn't ATM latch onto AFT's distribution channel, and share in the 968% increase in profit?

[dobby41]

mmm, but isnt that the same book that says 'go forth & multiply'?

Unfortunately someone got there just before me and I had to go fifth :t_up:

[carrom74]

https://i.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/123446554/new-zealand-joins-five-eyes-allies-in-condemning-china-for-concerted-campaign-to-silence-all-critical-voices-in-hong-kong

Could have some negative impact on NZ products getting exported to China... just like Australia

[Biscuit]

....But divide your investments among many places,
for you do not know what risks might lie ahead....

Which is wise advice. Funny to think that thousands of years ago, people in an ancient society were losing sleep over just the same problems that exercise our minds.

[alokdhir]

Has it really worked that well mate ? As I have said many times to you before I often think you and your family would be better off with a very sizeable part of your money split evenly between Kingfish, Barramundi and Marlin. Please spend some time reflecting upon what the Bible says about diversification https://www.randelltiongson.com/diversification-according-to-investopedia-and-the-bible/

“But divide your investments among many places,
for you do not know what risks might lie ahead.”

— Ecclesiastes 11:2. New Living Translation.

I have advised myself and others same stuff ...full diversification ...so I hold NZG as my main investment ...nothing can be more diversified then that . U can top that up with going over weight on some flavours of the season . ATM + FPH + NZG in right proportions can make a potent NZ portfolio .

BRM / MLN / KFL have suddenly become very popular with retail investors because of their 2% quarterly divvy policy ...not exactly for anything else maybe ...otherwise who will be paying 15% premium to real NAV for 3.5 % outperformance to index available at NAV in open quantities ...to me this seems job of uninformed and new rookie investors .

I will rather promote more fairer options possible at the moment then KFL types . IMHO

[alokdhir]

For Barrs brief update

Baby Steps Forward


OUTPERFORM
The a2 Milk Company's (ATM) Annual Meeting provided little in the way of new information, reiterating its FY21 guidance. A
positive takeaway was indications of "early green shoots" in the under-pressure daigou channel. ATM's channel mix is shifting
rapidly, with strong performance in direct channels being overshadowed by daigou pressure. We view this as temporary and
expect a return to growth from 2H21. Current investor focus appears firmly centered on FY21 earnings downgrade risk,
which is unlikely to be resolved until the timeline of daigou re-ordering and realignment of channels is clearer. Looking
through short-term earnings volatility, we see an attractive medium-term growth runway, with our confidence boosted by
recent proprietary channel checks in the key offline market. Valuation metrics remain attractive (PE of ~25x, or ~21x adjusted
for cash and US losses), particularly given ATM's strong free cashflow generation and high returns. OUTPERFORM.
What's changed?
What did we learn from the Annual Meeting?
Key issue creating debate — when will growth return and is there a downgrade still to come?
Market attention appears centered on one over-arching question — will ATM downgrade its FY21 (particularly 2H21) guidance?
Despite the reiteration of guidance and channel commentary, which if anything was incrementally more positive than the last update,
this question will likely remain an overhang until the 2H21 outlook is clearer. ATM is going through a dramatic, rapid shift in channel
mix which makes forecasting more challenging than usual. The issues are well known, however, the timeline (particularly of daigou reordering) is less clear. Our analysis suggests the share price is already factoring in some of the risk (c. 70%). Even under
our downgrade scenario we see attractive value (valuation multiples lift by c. 2x).

Makes perfect sense . After 2 years of underperformance ...now the time is ripe for it to be outperformer for next 2 years to do a catch up . Thats how most good companies SP work IMHO

Fisher Funds have also increased its weightage to 14% from 13 % as per their latest data . They sure can sense ATM good times ahead

[Beagle]

Which is wise advice. Funny to think that thousands of years ago, people in an ancient society were losing sleep over just the same problems that exercise our minds.

Yeah, ironic isn't it !


I have advised myself and others same stuff ...full diversification ...so I hold NZG as my main investment ...nothing can be more diversified then that . U can top that up with going over weight on some flavours of the season . ATM + FPH + NZG in right proportions can make a potent NZ portfolio .

BRM / MLN / KFL have suddenly become very popular with retail investors because of their 2% quarterly divvy policy ...not exactly for anything else maybe ...otherwise who will be paying 15% premium to real NAV for 3.5 % outperformance to index available at NAV in open quantities ...to me this seems job of uninformed and new rookie investors .

I will rather promote more fairer options possible at the moment then KFL types . IMHO

Yeah I think we've talked that through already but for the record I have been giving Couta1 this advice in person and on the phone for years and KFL, BRM and MLN have been outperforming their relevant indices for years. Average market outperformance adjusted NAV to adjusted NAV, after fees, (percent per annum) for the last 3 years KFL 4.3%, BRM 8.7% and MLN 9.7%, source (most recent monthly newsletters for each fund just released)
The only way into these funds, (which are well and truly outperforming their relevant indices after fees) at present without paying a premium to NTA is through the warrants. It won't surprise anyone then, that I have a lot of Kingfish KFLWF and Barramundi BRMWF warrants.

[Bjauck]

Has it really worked that well mate ? As I have said many times to you before I often think you and your family would be better off with a very sizeable part of your money split evenly between Kingfish, Barramundi and Marlin. Please spend some time reflecting upon what the Bible says about diversification https://www.randelltiongson.com/diversification-according-to-investopedia-and-the-bible/



“But divide your investments among many places,
for you do not know what risks might lie ahead.”


— Ecclesiastes 11:2. New Living Translation.
The King James Bible is more specific:
Give a portion to seven, and also to eight; for thou knowest not what evil shall be upon the earth

However...
And again I say unto you, It is easier for a camel to go through the eye of a needle, than for a rich man to enter into the kingdom of God.
Matthew 19:24

All the best to couta. He was a poster who was unafraid to offer his opinions and share his experiences.

[Biscuit]

I have advised myself and others same stuff ...full diversification ...

Diversification makes it harder to lose money but also harder to make money. Just depends where you are at. Neither strategy is intrinsically better than the other.

[Beagle]

Diversification makes it harder to lose money but also harder to make money. Just depends where you are at. Neither strategy is intrinsically better than the other.

I couldn't disagree more.

[RupertBear]

Decided I'm going to take an extended break from the forum, my wife won't let me have the changed password for 6 months to start, after that I doubt I'll be back. I'm a go big or go home kinda person and have excelled in quite a few areas of life because of that and I'm not about to change a formula that has worked well for me through the years. Some no doubt will be happy to see me go, thats their prerogative, it is what it is. Adios Couta.

Aww no that sucks! :( I will miss your go big or go home attitude. And whose going to keep that Beagle in check :confused: he will probably go feral with you gone! :p

Anyway enjoy your break and I hope you do come back. All the Very best :)

[Beagle]

LOL - When one holds 90% of one's investments in one share, all hope of calm rational debate is gone. Nobody on earth can hold that level of investment in one share and think objectively.

One of Couta's favorite little sayings is "two men look out through the prison bars, one sees mud and the other sees stars" The question is not which are you. The real question is why some people keep putting themselves in prison over and over and over again in the first place !

[macduffy]

How about we leave Couta in peace and take this thread back to A2 Corporation?

:mellow:

[bull....]

will a2 become a target for payback?

NZ joins Five Eyes allies in condemning China for 'concerted campaign to silence all critical voices' in Hong Kong

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/123446554/nz-joins-five-eyes-allies-in-condemning-china-for-concerted-campaign-to-silence-all-critical-voices-in-hong-kong

in todays paper

[Beagle]

https://www.stuff.co.nz/world/australia/300162351/if-you-make-china-the-enemy-china-will-be-the-enemy-beijings-fresh-threat-to-australia

I am sure we can rely on new Foreign Minister Nanaia Mahuta's "vast experience" to ensure N.Z. doesn't end up in the same mess...oh hang on a minute :eek2:
(At least love him or loathe him, Winston Peter's had some diplomacy skills and experience).

[Bjauck]

will a2 become a target for payback?

NZ joins Five Eyes allies in condemning China for 'concerted campaign to silence all critical voices' in Hong Kong

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/123446554/nz-joins-five-eyes-allies-in-condemning-china-for-concerted-campaign-to-silence-all-critical-voices-in-hong-kong

in todays paper

Good point. Is NZ clearly showing it is part of the gang “against China”.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-11-18/china-warns-australia-over-new-defence-pact-japan/12894798

[Balance]

https://www.stuff.co.nz/world/australia/300162351/if-you-make-china-the-enemy-china-will-be-the-enemy-beijings-fresh-threat-to-australia

I am sure we can rely on new Foreign Minister Nanaia Mahuta's "vast experience" to ensure N.Z. doesn't end up in the same mess...oh hang on a minute :eek2:
(At least love him or loathe him, Winston Peter's had some diplomacy skills and experience).

Freaking heck - has NZ nothing better to do than to pull the already pissed off dragon's tail?

Foreign Minister thinks she can scare the Chinese into submission with her culturally tattooed face?

[Beagle]

Freaking heck - has NZ nothing better to do than to pull the already pissed off dragon's tail?

Foreign Minister thinks she can scare the Chinese into submission with her culturally tattooed face?

This sort of thing can't end well for us. A tiny island country at the bottom of the world with a wide open economy heavily dependent on China as our biggest trading partner. What could possibly go wrong :eek2:

[LEMON]

Don't think the Tā moko has anything to do with it.

[alokdhir]

Diversification makes it harder to lose money but also harder to make money. Just depends where you are at. Neither strategy is intrinsically better than the other.

I agree with U ...unlike Mr B ...provided u know what u doing ...diversification helps rookies as no need to work hard for getting to know your stocks .

Like DIY guy is considered more smart then pay tradei one ...at least in advertising of Bunnings etc ...lol

U will make big bucks if U go big in good stocks at right time and have the courage and conviction to hold them long enough ..eg FPH ...from $ 2.50 to $ 35 in 10 years ...and it was a quality stock in 2010 also ...so please dont compare it with some penny stocks which are just speculative in nature

One should be sleeping well while invested big in them ...so quality of stock matters

Still easier and more relaxed way of investing is in a well diversified portfolio . Over diversified portfolio will give pathetic returns always ...remember 60/40 portfolios of old times !!

[Beagle]

One's investment approach should be tailored to their risk tolerance and be age appropriate.
What might be appropriate for a single twenty something may be totally inappropriate for a married person just a few years away from retirement.

[keenkiwiflyer]

Freaking heck - has NZ nothing better to do than to pull the already pissed off dragon's tail?

Foreign Minister thinks she can scare the Chinese into submission with her culturally tattooed face?
No place for racism here.

[Justin]

Hi can anyone tell me how much percent a2 grew in 2019 11/11 sales? Thanks

[Gregnz]

Hi can anyone tell me how much percent a2 grew in 2019 11/11 sales? Thanks

Sales this year up 24% compared with last years 11:11 sales

[Snoopy]

Decided I'm going to take an extended break from the forum, my wife won't let me have the changed password for 6 months to start, after that I doubt I'll be back. I'm a go big or go home kinda person and have excelled in quite a few areas of life because of that and I'm not about to change a formula that has worked well for me through the years. Some no doubt will be happy to see me go, thats their prerogative, it is what it is. Adios Couta.


I can very much understand the Couta mentality. Specialisation reaps rewards. You can count on one hand the handful of professional sportspeople who play more than one top level code code at the same time. I can think of Jeff Wilson of rugby/cricket fame. Some would say Sonny Bill with league and boxing (although I am not sure if he qualifies as a top level boxer). But that;'s about it. Likewise in non-sporting jobs. Go and get a qualification and become really good at what you do. Likewise partnering up for life. Most males wouldn't have a harem under one roof at home. It is like this all through life. Set a goal, choose your path and go for it.

This is what makes investing so very hard because we are wired to concentrate for success. Yet with investing, this is precisely the wrong thing to do. In the world of investing you can play multiple sports at a top level, have a plethora of degree qualified careers, and have a dozen wives (or more correctly do the investing analogue of all that). Not only can you do this, you should do this. The reason why 'going big and going hard' cannot work statistically is that each investment decision is, in statistical terms, what is termed an independent trial. That means you have to multiply the result of each investment decision you make together to create one giant multiplicative equation. Even if you have a 90% success rate on your investment train you cannot avoid the 10% failure rate if you play the investment game long enough. Put simply 'stuff happens'. However successful you have been in the past, and incredibly successful high number multiplied by zero equals zero. That one in ten chance in failure will destroy your investment capital and remove you permanently from the investment game. 'Go big and go hard' is a guarantee of failure, if you play long enough, even if you are right with your investing decisions 90% of the time. Sorry Couta, you need to listen to your mates!

SNOOPY

P.S. I hope that is food for thought for anyone with more than 75% of their portfolio in A2 Milk, except if you are in your twenties in which case you will ignore this post and learn your lesson the hard way.

[Justin]

hi gregnz，i means how much percentage increase in 2019 compare to 2018.

[Ggcc]

hi gregnz，i means how much percentage increase in 2019 compare to 2018.
I don't think they mentioned numbers.

The results of the 11/11 China e-commerce sales event, also known as Singles’ Day were very positive. We had another strong performance during this important promotional event. In JD.com, our a2 Platinum® Stage 3 was the top selling infant nutrition product in cross border e-commerce, and we were the second best-selling brand overall. In Tmall, we were the number three infant nutrition brand overall (English and China label combined) across the e-commerce platform and we were the number one CBEC flagship store.

That is all I could find

[Justin]

I don't think they mentioned numbers.

The results of the 11/11 China e-commerce sales event, also known as Singles’ Day were very positive. We had another strong performance during this important promotional event. In JD.com, our a2 Platinum® Stage 3 was the top selling infant nutrition product in cross border e-commerce, and we were the second best-selling brand overall. In Tmall, we were the number three infant nutrition brand overall (English and China label combined) across the e-commerce platform and we were the number one CBEC flagship store.

That is all I could find






thanks，if we can got numbers last year，we can compare the diffrenence.

[Beagle]

I can very much understand the Couta mentality. Specialisation reaps rewards. You can count on one hand the handful of professional sportspeople who play more than one top level code code at the same time. I can think of Jeff Wilson of rugby/cricket fame. Some would say Sonny Bill with league and boxing (although I am not sure if he qualifies as a top level boxer). But that;'s about it. Likewise in non-sporting jobs. Go and get a qualification and become really good at what you do. Likewise partnering up for life. Most males wouldn't have a harem under one roof at home. It is like this all through life. Set a goal, choose your path and go for it.

This is what makes investing so very hard because we are wired to concentrate for success. Yet with investing, this is precisely the wrong thing to do. In the world of investing you can play multiple sports at a top level, have a plethora of degree qualified careers, and have a dozen wives (or more correctly do the investing analogue of all that). Not only can you do this, you should do this. The reason why 'going big and going hard' cannot work statistically is that each investment decision is, in statistical terms, what is termed an independent trial. That means you have to multiply the result of each investment decision you make together to create one giant multiplicative equation. Even if you have a 90% success rate on your investment train you cannot avoid the 10% failure rate if you play the investment game long enough. Put simply 'stuff happens'. However successful you have been in the past, and incredibly successful high number multiplied by zero equals zero. That one in ten chance in failure will destroy your investment capital and remove you permanently from the investment game. 'Go big and go hard' is a guarantee of failure, if you play long enough, even if you are right with your investing decisions 90% of the time. Sorry Couta, you need to listen to your mates!

SNOOPY

P.S. I hope that is food for thought for anyone with more than 75% of their portfolio in A2 Milk, except if you are in your twenties in which case you will ignore this post and learn your lesson the hard way.

An excellent post and very accurate diagnostic of the situation. I have been trying for years but unfortunately some people are completely incorrigible and incapable of reform. They simply cannot acknowledge they are profoundly addicted to trading and extreme risk taking.

[Justin]

Quote from Morningstar: At the company's annual general meeting, management reiterated its full-year 2021 outlook for revenue of NZD 1.8 billion to NZD 1.9 billion and EBITDA margin of about 31%, tracking our estimates. This suggests top-line growth slowing to about 5% to 10% versus 33% in fiscal 2020

5% and 10% growth compare to 28pe ??? hope next half year result they can under promise and over deliver again.

[Beagle]

Quote from Morningstar: At the company's annual general meeting, management reiterated its full-year 2021 outlook for revenue of NZD 1.8 billion to NZD 1.9 billion and EBITDA margin of about 31%, tracking our estimates. This suggests top-line growth slowing to about 5% to 10% versus 33% in fiscal 2020

5% and 10% growth compare to 28pe ??? hope next half year result they can under promise and over deliver again.
Worse still, the average forecast is for eps to only increase at less than 2% this year and further even to that, there appears to be widespread suspicion that their 2H sales forecast is very vulnerable to possible downgrade.

[RupertBear]

When I first joined Share Trader I was an absolute novice and I held some stinkers. I was a lost Bear Wandering around in the dark. Out of the blue Couta messaged me and shared some of his experiences with me and encouraged me not to give up. I have never forgotten him doing that and his words of wisdom were much appreciated at the time and they still are. Thanks again.

Couta has his own style of investing and it clearly works for him. So if Couta wants to go big or go home thats totally up to him and we should let him be.

[xp04]

Seems to me the only people nagging about this stock are those who missed big time since it was in 40c range and now trying to convince themselves that they’ve made the right choice by not investing in it :)

[Gregnz]

When it comes to P/E , there are many companies which appear to be attractive to investors, yet A2 seems far more attractive from a P/E perspective. I’m thinking AfterPay, Xero, Apple etc.
I don’t think you can necessarily expect the initial high growth rates of a company to continue year on year as your growing from a much higher revenue baseline. Ie when your revenue is $500 million, 30% growth could be reasonable. But is 30% growth reasonable when your revenue is $1.5 billion, $2 billion, $3 billion? I’m not sure, just doesn’t seem a reasonable expectation.

[Scrunch]

I'm actually very calm after having sold a good bunch this morning and have now just completed buying more back.PS-Lets go revisit that wage subsidy off market thread to see Beagles definition of calm reasoned debate.:D

While Couta1's strategy is being labeled as 90% exposure to one stock, would appear to also be arguably investing 90%+ of time/resources into trading one product. Many FX dealers will focus on a narrow set of currency pairs. Many stock market makers (in countries with market makers) will have a limited set of stocks they make the market for. Many sole traders will invest all their time and resources into the company they are building up. Many property investors will focus only one property type in one area. It can increase the risks, but also the rewards - if done well. Many of the very rich have got there by taking big bets on one company/industry, not a wide mix (but often they are influencing or running those companies). Just some thoughts to also consider for anyone reading.

And I'm not sure on this, but if Couta1 recognised himself that he was trading (not investing) 90% in one stock, that could be a sensible allocation of resources. With where ATM opened on the 18th, and where it had traded by 1pm there was a lot to be made trading. A sell in the morning and a re-buy later is likely to have gained at least 60c and $1/share is entirely possible. Did Couta1 make 1%, 2%, 5% or maybe even more relative to a straight by and hold strategy on that one day? Only he, any accounting support and possibly the tax man will know that. How many times has he made good gains in a similar way - again only he knows. I'd be amazed if the gain relative to a buy and hold that day wasn't a 5-figure sum. A 6-figure gain is within the realms of possibility.

For most people, a high exposure to a single stock is a very bad idea, but it can be the right strategy in certain circumstances.
Disc hold ATM, but only as a modest sub 10% of portfolio holding.

[Justin]

will atm be 2021 institute’s top pick？i wonder.

[alokdhir]

will atm be 2021 institute’s top pick？i wonder.

Normally when its darkest is the time for tide to change ...So to answer your question ...Surely ATM has already become top pick for 2021 . Risk reward favours long term investments . KFL has increased its holding by good 2% in last 3 months which means all NZ oriented Fisher funds would have done the same . They dont invest in penny stocks and need volumes and market cap etc to do big investments , ATM will be surely their top pick as they look ahead to quality stock with prospects of Growth . FPH was traded up to 50 % on that basis early March .

[see weed]

Seems to me the only people nagging about this stock are those who missed big time since it was in 40c range and now trying to convince themselves that they’ve made the right choice by not investing in it :)
:t_up: Bought shares with BRM and MLN for 63c and 83c on 13/10/14 and 14/10/14. Closing price for those two shares yesterday was 90c and $1.24c. Bought ATM on 18/11/14 for 60c. Closing price yesterday was $14.54c. I am not an Accountant but just a small time trader. I enjoyed the free lunches BRM and MLN put on at the agms, but prefer the excitement of ATM. I was naughty and was 100% ATM a few months back for a little while. Nothing wrong with being over 90% for a little while :cool:.

[DownTownJr]

:t_up: Bought shares with BRM and MLN for 63c and 83c on 13/10/14 and 14/10/14. Closing price for those two shares yesterday was 90c and $1.24c. Bought ATM on 18/11/14 for 60c. Closing price yesterday was $14.54c. I am not an Accountant but just a small time trader. I enjoyed the free lunches BRM and MLN put on at the agms, but prefer the excitement of ATM. I was naughty and was 100% ATM a few months back for a little while. Nothing wrong with being over 90% for a little while :cool:.

Solid work dude. Some good entry points. Yes being 90 percent of even 100 is ok, as for all you know it's only a small value

[see weed]

Solid work dude. Some good entry points. Yes being 90 percent of even 100 is ok, as for all you know it's only a small value
Have locked in 197k profit so far this financial year before fees and losses:eek2:, steady as she goes for a learner trader.

[Biscuit]

An excellent post and very accurate diagnostic of the situation. I have been trying for years but unfortunately some people are completely incorrigible and incapable of reform. They simply cannot acknowledge they are profoundly addicted to trading and extreme risk taking.

I think, as you say, everyone should find an investment strategy(s) that suits their style and circumstance. if someone is "addicted to trading and extreme risk taking" then they should go with that - after all, that is part of their natural style. That is not intrinsically bad, as long as it is constrained by strategy and discipline. Also, the only statistical certainty is that the more diversified you are the more your return will be pulled to the mean and, as I said, the harder it is to exceptionally lose money and the harder it is to exceptionally make money. Having said that, personally I am extremely diversified - I don't need exceptional return and I have other things to do with my time than constantly think about investment.

[Sideshow Bob]

Have locked in 197k profit so far this financial year before fees and losses:eek2:, steady as she goes for a learner trader.

Nooice! Beats a real job!! :t_up:

[Waltzing]

ATM has been exposed to Geo Risk. Investors often trade over 25 year horizon and their large gains on one stock doesnt mean a diversified approach to sector investing wont bring some big gains and rewards at some time in the fullness of time.

Note that when a company gets to this stage in its life cycle it does have farther growth risk but the market brand here is extremely valuable.

If they can keep market share then the 14 range has tested support at least 6 times.

Investors who got in early in this growth stock have been rewarded but its a lottery out there.

With the USA about to shut down again there may be another move down just around the corner.

[Snoopy]

While Couta1's strategy is being labeled as 90% exposure to one stock, would appear to also be arguably investing 90%+ of time/resources into trading one product. Many FX dealers will focus on a narrow set of currency pairs. Many stock market makers (in countries with market makers) will have a limited set of stocks they make the market for. Many sole traders will invest all their time and resources into the company they are building up. Many property investors will focus only one property type in one area. It can increase the risks, but also the rewards - if done well. Many of the very rich have got there by taking big bets on one company/industry, not a wide mix (but often they are influencing or running those companies). Just some thoughts to also consider for anyone reading.


I think there are some tenuous arguments comparing A2 with unrelated investment domains being expressed here. Firstly, my knowledge of Forex would suggest that those dealing in currencies are extremely skilled on TA techniques and discipline. They recognise that they do not hold all the keys to know where a currency is going. If the trend ends they exit. Contrast this to the Couta A2 approach. Couta is happy to discuss support levels, and trading patterns from the previous year. However, when the trend goes against him he then switches to a long term FA mode.

"This company has an incredible growth record. It has been down and bounced back in the past etc etc."

Neither an FA or a TA approach is 'wrong' when dealing with A2. But Couta changes his strategy to fit the belief of where he wants A2 to go. Whereas in my view, if you have a strategy, FA, TA or a combination, you have to trust and respect the independent data inputs that drive that strategy and act on those. IOW you have to be dispassionate and change your mind on A2 if the input parameters that helped form your original view change. Being passionate is generally a good thing, but not with investing as it will lead you down a tunnel of confirmation bias where you only have ears for those who agree with you.

You say many investors concentrate on one share or are very selective and narrow in their property investments. But this is generally because they have widely researched other shares and properties in that investment space and they have a deep understanding of how a market works. IOW their selective investment is the end product of driving down a much wider investment road. A2 is very dependent on the Chinese market. But how much do NZ based investors know about the rather strange interplay between regional and communist party central governments. The changes in sales tax rules that have come in over recent years. The very different characteristics of the coastal Chinese cities and those inland. The difference between the southern Mandarin speaking provinces and the northern Cantonese speaking ones.
What is the interplay between the Daigu distribution channels and the in store distribution channels. OK I admit to being an FA mutt and to traders this kind of thing might not matter. But I expect I know more about these things than 90% of the posters on here, simply because there is so little discussion on these matters on this thread. But do I class myself as an expert on A2? No. But I do know enough to know that I don't know enough. I am working to close my knowledge gap when I get the time. But right now, I don't think I know enough to invest in A2 myself. And I think there is a substantial cohort of A2 investors that are 'investing on the fly' without the background knowledge they need to properly mitigate their investment risk.

If you are running your own company then the investment rules change. You haven't built up your position in the world via an investment forum. The fact that you have got where you are to date means you already have good industry knowledge and experience and you are probably leveraging on your hard earned practical skills and qualifications. Couta has declared a background in healthcare/ elderly care and I have great respect for his insight son those topics. But does he have a diploma on investing in primary products? Has he been in food retailing or distribution? Judging from his posts, I would guess the answer to those questions is 'no'. If food is your new passion, I would suggest the best way to start is by having humble pie for breakfast. That way you can stack the odds on any big(ger) bets you might want to take later on in your investment career.



And I'm not sure on this, but if Couta1 recognised himself that he was trading (not investing) 90% in one stock, that could be a sensible allocation of resources. With where ATM opened on the 18th, and where it had traded by 1pm there was a lot to be made trading. A sell in the morning and a re-buy later is likely to have gained at least 60c and $1/share is entirely possible. Did Couta1 make 1%, 2%, 5% or maybe even more relative to a straight by and hold strategy on that one day? Only he, any accounting support and possibly the tax man will know that. How many times has he made good gains in a similar way - again only he knows. I'd be amazed if the gain relative to a buy and hold that day wasn't a 5-figure sum. A 6-figure gain is within the realms of possibility.


Scrunch, that has to be the worst paragraph you have ever written on sharetrader. Granted that is not much of a criticisim because overall your contributions are very well thought out and of a high standard. But to suggest that mega dollars are available from day trading that would blow ordinary investors away? I think you are underplaying the risks in a reckless way. Even the real T/A gurus on here have very sad stories day trading shares. Can you name one day trader who has survived for more than one stock market cycle, ever in the whole history of investing?



For most people, a high exposure to a single stock is a very bad idea, but it can be the right strategy in certain circumstances.
Disc hold ATM, but only as a modest sub 10% of portfolio holding.


In what circumstances can holding 90% of your wealth in one share be a good idea? I can think of one. If you have founded a company, floated it on the share market and are currently actively engaged in running it then I can see how you might find yourself in this position. But that would be a case of circumstance. To have 90% of your wealth in one investment in which you are not intimately engaged on a day to day basis would suggest to me you are on the road to bankruptcy.

SNOOPY

[winner69]

Nassim Taleb of Black Swan fame once said

Diversification does NOT reduce risks in the financial market; it causes near-certain long term blowups under any leverage.


Whatever that means


But he did have some good risk management ideas here

https://www.moneysense.ca/magazine-archive/nassim-talebs-tips-for-embracing-risk/

[Snoopy]

Have locked in 197k profit so far this financial year before fees and losses:eek2:, steady as she goes for a learner trader.


Not wanting to get at you specifically Seeweed. IIRC, you are one of the few A2 investors who have stalked the supermarket shelves engaged with customer consumers and truly walked the walk not just talked the talk. But to say you have made 197k profit before fees and losses is nonsensical. A profit is what is left over after fees and losses are deducted. You are lying to yourself if you think you can leave those two factors out.

SNOOPY

[Waltzing]

well we found that twice now the GFC and GPD that sector diversification balanced loses and gains and nullified the variances caused by extreme events such as we have just experienced.

China is not a sleeping tiger, its not a democracy and its issuing warnings and looking to bully small players.

[Balance]

Another day of sp going up on NZX and then, getting sold down when ASX opens?

Market manipulation or just Kiwi investors not realising that the stock is now driven out of Australia?

[Balance]

well we found that twice now the GFC and GPD that sector diversification balanced loses and gains and nullified the variances caused by extreme events such as we have just experienced.

China is not a sleeping tiger, its not a democracy and its issuing warnings and looking to bully small players.

Forget about small players - China has comprehensively beaten the US in its trade war.

https://asiatimes.com/2020/10/trump-team-responsible-for-dooming-us-hegemony/

But I guess that’s not hard as they are dealing with a buffoon in the WH.

We better be cautious in NZ in pulling the dragon’s tail - if China decides to retaliate, it will not do so immediately but strategically when it is ready. The impact on NZ’s economic fortune will be devastating.

[Waltzing]

Once a stock reaches a certain size as we all know moving the needle higher takes more effort. Big world yes but china is increasing using it bulk to do its bidding. Im not saying Geo Risk here is high but its not zero and i wonder if the current price trend reflects some caution by the market in relation to short term outlook on growth. Not long till you have your answer with a market update.

[see weed]

Not wanting to get at you specifically Seeweed. IIRC, you are one of the few A2 investors who have stalked the supermarket shelves engaged with customer consumers and truly walked the walk not just talked the talk. But to say you have made 197k profit before fees and losses is nonsensical. A profit is what is left over after fees and losses are deducted. You are lying to yourself if you think you can leave those two factors out.

SNOOPY
Part of that profit was 4000 bought at $7.36 in Oct 2017 and sold for $19.15 in May 2020. You are right. I agree with you. I will try and loose about 80 to 90% of that years profit by financial years end and replace it with divs from other stocks, so as to keep my tax bill down. What ever tax I pay will double because IRD will also make me pay provisional tax on top of normal tax. So far haven't had to fork out any tax for last couple of years but have received refunds;).

[winner69]

I think one thing that’s on big investors minds is that A2 are going down the path of being a significant producer (owner of stainless steel) and might not be seen as great marketer.

Great marketers generally valued higher than producers
.

Wouldn’t want to see A2 as a Fonterra would we.

[HKG2301]

... Many of the very rich have got there by taking big bets on one company/industry, not a wide mix (but often they are influencing or running those companies). Just some thoughts to also consider for anyone reading.

Yes, but for every one of the 'very rich' how many lost their shirts, following that same 'big-bet', risk-heavy philosophy...?

[Snoopy]

Part of that profit was 4000 bought at $7.36 in Oct 2017 and sold for $19.15 in May 2020. You are right. I agree with you. I will try and loose about 80 to 90% of that years profit by financial years end and replace it with divs from other stocks, so as to keep my tax bill down. What ever tax I pay will double because IRD will also make me pay provisional tax on top of normal tax. So far haven't had to fork out any tax for last couple of years but have received refunds;).


We are getting off topic here. But I got 'fined' by the IRD a couple of years ago, even though I followed the tax rules, because my 'income' (as a result of the FIF regime and asset value increases so no cashflow associated with my 'income' increase) increase was significantly more than the standard method 'previous years income + 10%' for estimating future income. Hence I underpaid my provisional tax. This year my 'income' has crashed (again mostly because of the lower FIF income input,- my cashflow is down but hasn't crashed) and now I have drastically over paid my provisional tax. according to standard IRD estimating procedures. In theory I will get interest from the IRD on my over paid provisional tax (that is what the IRD tax consultant told me when I talked to them about my fine from the previous year and they explained what would happen if I had paid too much tax as a counter example). But we shalll see.

The reason why I am mentioning this Seeweed is that provisional tax has a way of evening out. Yes if you make a good profit on A2 trading one year, you will pay a big whack of provisional tax for the next year. But that isn't 'extra tax'. It is a down-payment on next years tax. And if you do end up paying too much by following IRD rules, you should get your money back with interest. So by saving on provisional tax, by not cashing up your best trades, all you are doing is pushing a greatly increased mega tax bill out into the future. And the only way around that is to have a really bad year and actually lose money to wipe out your previous years of mega paper profits. Surely not a great investment objective to have? Then if you do have mega profits at the conclusion of your investment fling, you will suddenly find that everything is taxed at the top tax rate reducing your overall profit at the end. So to me this 'minimizing tax paid today' doesn't make much sense as eventually the IRD will catch up with you, as they always do. Just making these comments as I am wondering if you are really saving any money by forcing yourself to crystallize other trading losses today just to reduce your trading profit and hence tax bill today?

SNOOPY

[Beagle]

I think, as you say, everyone should find an investment strategy(s) that suits their style and circumstance. if someone is "addicted to trading and extreme risk taking" then they should go with that - after all, that is part of their natural style. That is not intrinsically bad, as long as it is constrained by strategy and discipline. Also, the only statistical certainty is that the more diversified you are the more your return will be pulled to the mean and, as I said, the harder it is to exceptionally lose money and the harder it is to exceptionally make money. Having said that, personally I am extremely diversified - I don't need exceptional return and I have other things to do with my time than constantly think about investment.

That's okay provided it doesn't impact on the family. I would be profoundly ashamed if through taking extreme risks I had drastically reduced the value of our family investment portfolio back to where it was many years ago.

ATM may or may not meet its 2H sales forecast. I think the risks are very clear. There could be a place for it in a very well diversified portfolio but I think at least in the short term the risks outweigh the likely returns so I see better near term opportunities out there. Looking further out, long term it should be clear the growth rate will be a lot lower than it has been historically. Further, nobody is talking about the new CEO risk. Remember what happened last time with Herdlicker ? A forward PE (if they can meet their forecast and I am very skeptical) of 28 in all the circumstances is not cheap, in fact it looks expensive to me.

What happens to the share price if they badly miss their forecast and the market rerates the future growth down ? Back to a PE in the low 20's on eps of maybe mid to late 40's ?
I think $10 is one possible outcome.

[Waltzing]

"owner of stainless steel"

does it give them gains in production and how much?

Mr B states what a professional should always counsel to ones clients. Most investors experience those big gains or even trade those big gains at some point but surviving a very risky world market is the goal.

Monetary systems are not a given.

[HKG2301]

... I'm not sure on this, but if Couta1 recognised himself that he was trading (not investing) 90% in one stock, that could be a sensible allocation of resources. With where ATM opened on the 18th, and where it had traded by 1pm there was a lot to be made trading. A sell in the morning and a re-buy later is likely to have gained at least 60c and $1/share is entirely possible. Did Couta1 make 1%, 2%, 5% or maybe even more relative to a straight by and hold strategy on that one day? Only he, any accounting support and possibly the tax man will know that. How many times has he made good gains in a similar way - again only he knows. I'd be amazed if the gain relative to a buy and hold that day wasn't a 5-figure sum. A 6-figure gain is within the realms of possibility.

This is one of my problems with couta1 continually pumping the share on this thread - he was very obviously talking his book.

Not that book-pumping is unusual, it's quite natural and leads to healthy debate on share outlook, etc. So long as you put your money where your mouth is.

But at the same time couta (the ATM buy & hold guy) was talking the share up, on the morning of the Annual report it appears he was also selling big!

:t_down:

[bull....]

This is one of my problems with couta1 continually pumping the share on this thread - he was very obviously talking his book.

Not that book-pumping is unusual, it's quite natural and leads to healthy debate on share outlook, etc. So long as you put your money where your mouth is.

But at the same time couta (the ATM buy & hold guy) was talking the share up, on the morning of the Annual report it appears he was also selling big!

:t_down:

yep and did not like it when someone talking against his positioning

[Gregnz]

I cant believe your all still talking about couta1 after he said he's gone for the time being. Who really cares what he said or if he pumped a share he was selling, surely you dont all base your investment strategy on whats discussed here?? Just my two cents.

[Biscuit]

I cant believe your all still talking about couta1 ....

Says the man still talking about Couta. I think its sad he felt he needed to leave the forum, he often had useful comments to make.

[alokdhir]

Following the market trend is the most common way of making small money on stocks for the traders . All the buy reports from well renowned Analysts become public after main trend reversal has already taken place . So people quoting reports and public voices of brokerages against the odds of ATM is just trying to fool us more in selling down a stock which already has become medium term buy for those very people but to their paid clients or own accounts .

70 -80 % of the worst expected out of ATM near term is already priced in . To put is money term ...downside risk of notional losses is $ 2.5 to upside reward of $ 10 in next 12-18 months ...IMHO .

So think logically and DYOR and invest accordingly .

Dont get swayed by already old data .

Buying divvy stocks now like the retail investors are chasing will only burn them in the near future ...Remember all buying ZEL at $ 8 for its 45 cents divvy ...

Buying BRM at 19% premium to NAV is only going to end in disaster for many many ...still many so called experts are advising people to do that but not the ETFs selling at NAV giving equally reliable PIE income dividends .

So I see lots of bad advise in the market ...of all sorts .

My advise ...only Trust your own advise and research

[Davexl]

Despite the medium term upside potential, perhaps a timely reminder of what's at stake geopolitically
with A2 and Dairy for NZ (and the mechanisms at work within China)

Disclosure: significant holder of A2

https://www.interest.co.nz/rural-news/106293/selling-high-quality-dairy-products-china-comes-all-sorts-different-tensions-big?utm_source=ST&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=ShareTrader+AM+Update+for+Monday+3+Au gust+2020

[alokdhir]

Despite the medium term upside potential, perhaps a timely reminder of what's at stake geopolitically
with A2 and Dairy for NZ (and the mechanisms at work within China)

Disclosure: significant holder of A2

https://www.interest.co.nz/rural-news/106293/selling-high-quality-dairy-products-china-comes-all-sorts-different-tensions-big?utm_source=ST&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=ShareTrader+AM+Update+for+Monday+3+Au gust+2020

Thats exactly I was referring to in my last post .

When media starts warning you about something which is about to happen ...making their financially sensitive information public ...be very very wary to act on it .

Free advise is always risky advise ...lol :p

[HKG2301]

Is it just my imagination, or is ATM now selling off on the NZX in advance of the daily ASX open...?

[bull....]

Following the market trend is the most common way of making small money on stocks for the traders . All the buy reports from well renowned Analysts become public after main trend reversal has already taken place . So people quoting reports and public voices of brokerages against the odds of ATM is just trying to fool us more in selling down a stock which already has become medium term buy for those very people but to their paid clients or own accounts .

70 -80 % of the worst expected out of ATM near term is already priced in . To put is money term ...downside risk of notional losses is $ 2.5 to upside reward of $ 10 in next 12-18 months ...IMHO .

So think logically and DYOR and invest accordingly .

Dont get swayed by already old data .

Buying divvy stocks now like the retail investors are chasing will only burn them in the near future ...Remember all buying ZEL at $ 8 for its 45 cents divvy ...

Buying BRM at 19% premium to NAV is only going to end in disaster for many many ...still many so called experts are advising people to do that but not the ETFs selling at NAV giving equally reliable PIE income dividends .

So I see lots of bad advise in the market ...of all sorts .

My advise ...only Trust your own advise and research

actually i dont think its all priced in. a lot of funds sell on the news. so if they miss guidance i expect a big down day will eventuate as funds price in reality

[Gregnz]

Is it just my imagination, or is ATM now selling off on the NZX in advance of the daily ASX open...?

Starts reacting to the pre open on the asx.

[Balance]

Starts reacting to the pre open on the asx.


Another day of sp going up on NZX and then, getting sold down when ASX opens?

Market manipulation or just Kiwi investors not realising that the stock is now driven out of Australia?

Old news.

Pays to be attentive as to where ATM sp is driven from - definitely not NZX any more. Been like that for a few years.

555k shares traded on opening on ASX vs 135k traded for the last 2 hours on NZX.

[HKG2301]

Which begs the question, why would anyone wait until the afternoon to sell? Smacks of market manipulation, or am I just stating the patently bleeding obvious...? :cool:

[Gregnz]

Old news.

Pays to be attentive as to where ATM sp is driven from - definitely not NZX any more. Been like that for a few years.

Agree. Quite honestly we almost mirror what happens on the asx.

[Gregnz]

Which begs the question, why would anyone wait until the afternoon to sell? Smacks of market manipulation, or am I just stating the patently bleeding obvious...? :cool:

Do people do that? I usually sell in the morning and buy in the afternoon..

[Davexl]

Thats exactly I was referring to in my last post .

When media starts warning you about something which is about to happen ...making their financially sensitive information public ...be very very wary to act on it .

Free advise is always risky advise ...lol :p

Please note the age of the article, not imminent, still advice, and fits with the current geopolitical circumstances also
(see Geo-Political Risks thread) eg Australia

[alokdhir]

actually i dont think its all priced in. a lot of funds sell on the news. so if they miss guidance i expect a big down day will eventuate as funds price in reality

Fair enough ...If that so called down grade doesn't happen then big buying is also possible on that news

Thats why I said $ 2.50 downside reaction to it actually happening ...it covers your big down day ( its 18% down from here ) ...

[Beagle]

actually i dont think its all priced in. a lot of funds sell on the news. so if they miss guidance i expect a big down day will eventuate as funds price in reality

Unfortunately the ferocity of his vitriol became more intense and less rational the more he lost. In the end it became personal, (even against his friends), and there was no room left for calm objective debate, so with that state of mind its good that he's taking an extended break and I wish him well with that.

Anyway, I agree...lets move on, its overdue we get back to discussing ATM

[HKG2301]

Do people do that? I usually sell in the morning and buy in the afternoon..

Seems they do - plenty of volume in the pm, and for every buyer there is a seller...

[Balance]

Unfortunately the ferocity of his attacks became more intense and less rational the more he lost. In the end it became personal, (even against his friends) and there was no room left for calm objective debate, so with that state of mind its good that he's taking an extended break.

Couta plays big and he needs to be careful that he does not go through wild swings of emotions with this stock.

[alokdhir]

Unfortunately the ferocity of his attacks became more intense and less rational the more he lost. In the end it became personal, (even against his friends) and there was no room left for calm objective debate, so with that state of mind its good that he's taking an extended break. Anyway, I agree its time to get back to ATM and I hope my friend seeks professional help.

I think we should let it pass now please . He defended his views as passionately as you defend yours . Nothing wrong . But we all should not loose our civility or try to enforce our views or think that only our views are the best or correct one

Even a not working clock shows right time two times in the day !! :t_up:

[bull....]

Fair enough ...If that so called down grade doesn't happen then big buying is also possible on that news

Thats why I said $ 2.50 downside reaction to it actually happening ...it covers your big down day ( its 18% down from here ) ...

if they meet guidance i expect it will go up on that news too

[Beagle]

if they meet guidance i expect it will go up on that news too

I agree to an extent but eps will only rise 2% (on average analyst view). I think there is already a fair bit of skepticism in the market about 2H sales. If they miss badly however....its probably going to get quite ugly !

[alokdhir]

if they meet guidance i expect it will go up on that news too

So as per you Feb results important or next August full year ...as U more concerned with full year results rather then just half year ...as as per u full year guidance is more risky then half year already downgrade one ?

[HKG2301]

Forget about small players - China has comprehensively beaten the US in its trade war.

https://asiatimes.com/2020/10/trump-team-responsible-for-dooming-us-hegemony/

But I guess that’s not hard as they are dealing with a buffoon in the WH.

We better be cautious in NZ in pulling the dragon’s tail - if China decides to retaliate, it will not do so immediately but strategically when it is ready. The impact on NZ’s economic fortune will be devastating.

Very likely that China will choose to overlook such trivial distractions. They can afford to be magnanimous.

Thanks to said 'buffoon in the WH' they have won a trade war they didn't even start, cemented leadership in the region (RCEP) and quietly taken advantage of the major covid-ravaged players (ie all of them). Full yuan convertibility next?

China has a huge population (and industry) to feed. So long as we don't fall into the Australian trap, I can see NZ remaining a valued supplier.

https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3110384/rcep-trade-deal-us-should-worry-less-about-chinas-role-and-more about being left out.

[alokdhir]

Please note the VWAP of ASX ...its good $ 1.10 above current SP with almost 900K shares traded ...

Why so ? Block deal at such premium !!!!

[Balance]

Please note the VWAP of ASX ...its good $ 1.10 above current SP with almost 900K shares traded ...

Why so ? Block deal at such premium !!!!

Could be an option-related deal.

[alokdhir]

Could be an option-related deal.

Arent all options cash settled ? Why need settle it with real shares ? Just wondering ...

[Ruby]

NZ milk & derivative products to be marketed as 'white gold"

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business...ckling-taste-buds/5ZHBYKR3WKC3YCOFCTJ3MTS4YE/ (https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/fonterra-makes-a-fresh-start-in-china-tapping-health-and-wellness-appetite-tickling-taste-buds/5ZHBYKR3WKC3YCOFCTJ3MTS4YE/)
Fonterra makes a fresh start in China, tapping health and wellness appetite, tickling taste buds

excerpts:
"As part of the strategic reset we are looking at how we can, what I call, valourise New Zealand milk," he said.
The pitch will be that its production is not increasing and that it's becoming "rare and more valuable" to business customers and consumers.

"A lot of what we do is making sure customers understand where it comes from - that it is grass-fed and pasture-raised.
"We have customers looking to use [this claim] to promote the distinctiveness of their product. It resonates with Chinese consumers. For example, one of our paediatrics customers across their infant formula, which we produce out of Canpac (in New Zealand), is now marketing it as grass-fed.
"Not everyone is familiar with the concept of grass-fed so they had to do a lot of research and papers to explain to their customers."

[Biscuit]

....."As part of the strategic reset we (Fontera) are looking at how we can, what I call, valourise New Zealand milk,".....

Market it as "Botulism-free" ?

[macduffy]

Despite the medium term upside potential, perhaps a timely reminder of what's at stake geopolitically
with A2 and Dairy for NZ (and the mechanisms at work within China)

Disclosure: significant holder of A2

https://www.interest.co.nz/rural-news/106293/selling-high-quality-dairy-products-china-comes-all-sorts-different-tensions-big?utm_source=ST&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=ShareTrader+AM+Update+for+Monday+3+Au gust+2020

As we know, "Significant holders" own a minimum of 5% of a company's stock. Better take note of what the poster says!

[Waltzing]

""rare and more valuable"

does this mean milk in NZ will be the cost of gold soon?

does this mean in the country side it get a goat time?

chart says this is the test coming up at 13.60.

Dow coming under pressure.

[xp04]

Wow, so many experts on A2 suddenly appeared from nowhere and even more advisers on how people should invest their money.

https://cdn.someecards.com/someecards/usercards/dont-tell-me-what-to-do-and-i-wont-tell-you-where-to-go--559ea.png

[RupertBear]

Unfortunately the ferocity of his vitriol became more intense and less rational the more he lost. In the end it became personal, (even against his friends), and there was no room left for calm objective debate, so with that state of mind its good that he's taking an extended break and I wish him well with that.

Anyway, I agree...lets move on, its overdue we get back to discussing ATM

I am not surprised Couta has decided to take a break from the forum. He has been subject to quite relentless and intense bagging about his investment strategy recently. This is not the way to help someone if you think they have a genuine problem. I have no insight into Coutas personal life but I would hate to think he is isolating himself away somewhere not in a good state of mind. I have PM him but I am not sure if he can access messages. If anyone able to confirm he is ok I would be most grateful to hear this :)

[alokdhir]

I am not surprised Couta has decided to take a break from the forum. He has been subject to quite relentless and intense bagging about his investment strategy recently. This is not the way to help someone if you think they have a genuine problem. I have no insight into Coutas personal life but I would hate to think he is isolating himself away somewhere not in a good state of mind. I have PM him but I am not sure if he can access messages. If anyone able to confirm he is ok I would be most grateful to hear this :)

He is ok and doing fine ...also he knows what people are doing behind his back ...Not good to talk about someone when he cant defend himself . Especially from people pretending to be his friends .

Anyways I am pretty sure his ATM will be doing fine in the days to come . Investing in a quality company always pays off in the long run ...my firm belief ...just need to believe in yourself and the company's pedigree . :t_up:

[RupertBear]

He is ok and doing fine ...also he knows what people are doing behind his back ...Not good to talk about someone when he cant defend himself . Especially from people pretending to be his friends .

Anyways I am pretty sure his ATM will be doing fine in the days to come . Investing in a quality company always pays off in the long run ...my firm belief ...just need to believe in yourself and the company's pedigree . :t_up:

Thanks for letting us know alokdhir its much appreciated. I am also pretty sure he will do well with his ATM holding over time :)

[Hello123]

Unfortunately the ferocity of his vitriol became more intense and less rational the more he lost. In the end it became personal, (even against his friends), and there was no room left for calm objective debate, so with that state of mind its good that he's taking an extended break and I wish him well with that.

Anyway, I agree...lets move on, its overdue we get back to discussing ATM

2020 ATM go BOOM BOOM down 2021 ATM go ZOOM ZOOM up.

[Davexl]

As we know, "Significant holders" own a minimum of 5% of a company's stock. Better take note of what the poster says!

Ha ha ha! So that's what it means - let's just say I own a lot then:D

[allfromacell]

A2 is definitely not being helped by the exchange rate.

[Scrunch]

A2 is definitely not being helped by the exchange rate.

Could you please explain this more clearly. With China being the most important export market, the NZD to the Chinese yuan would appear to be the critical exchange rate to look at (Not NZD to USD). Over the last year this exchange paring looks to be basically flat at about 1:4.5. There has been a slight tick-up in the last month, but over the last six months the google chart of the exchange rate is in a narrow range of 4.40 to 4.60.

[see weed]

Hi Snoopy. I hear what you are saying and that is correct. If I sell all my holding of a2 shares on Fridays close of $14.59 then would have to pay tax on $354,000 profit. But if I sell bits and pieces over the next 5 or 10 years I can spread the tax out. But in saying that, at different times of the year I will also be buying in at the lower price. Am buying into TPW at the moment and will be trying to make about 6k to 8k loss on that stock after ex div day. TPW is not very liquid and hard to buy into at the moment. Everyone wants the div. Am trying to buy an extra 5000 or 10000 before ex div day. Have you got any you want to sell?:)

[Balance]

Could you please explain this more clearly. With China being the most important export market, the NZD to the Chinese yuan would appear to be the critical exchange rate to look at (Not NZD to USD). Over the last year this exchange paring looks to be basically flat at about 1:4.5. There has been a slight tick-up in the last month, but over the last six months the google chart of the exchange rate is in a narrow range of 4.40 to 4.60.

Simplistically a higher exchange rate is not good for exporters. Their returns in NZ$ are diminished while their production & domestic costs remain the same.

Applied to all exporters except those with very high import contents in their products or are price makers & can increase their US$ prices.

China currently still use US$ for most of its import prices, I believe.

[Waltzing]

Good point balance and the NZD might move even higher if they can bring in the crops in the fields. In older times the population would be mobilised to bring in the HARVEST.

Today the labour coffee shop politicians and social liberals (ooops not pointing fingers as us art shop lovers and orchestra goers , check out Nordic Pulse).

Today they just dont have dirt under our finger nails and we have no idea where our slow hands are needed in skilled jobs at harvest time.

US main street is badly damaged and a massive crunch could be coming soon.

[Snoopy]

Hi Snoopy. I hear what you are saying and that is correct. If I sell all my holding of a2 shares on Fridays close of $14.59 then would have to pay tax on $354,000 profit. But if I sell bits and pieces over the next 5 or 10 years I can spread the tax out. But in saying that, at different times of the year I will also be buying in at the lower price. Am buying into TPW at the moment and will be trying to make about 6k to 8k loss on that stock after ex div day. TPW is not very liquid and hard to buy into at the moment. Everyone wants the div. Am trying to buy an extra 5000 or 10000 before ex div day. Have you got any you want to sell?:)


OK I am starting to get this. If you make a 6K to 8k loss on a short term TPW trade you can sell an equivalent amount of A2 shares such that your profit on the A2 share sale exactly cancels out your TPW trade loss dollars and you have a tax free capital injection for Christmas. Plus you can bank the TPW dividend which will already have tax deducted from it. But where does buying more A2 shares at a lower price come into the picture?

Sorry don't have any TPW shares I can offer you. Never held and with all the rag tag of assets they own I have found it difficult to analyse.

SNOOPY

[Scrunch]

Simplistically a higher exchange rate is not good for exporters. Their returns in NZ$ are diminished while their production & domestic costs remain the same.

Applied to all exporters except those with very high import contents in their products or are price makers & can increase their US$ prices.

China currently still use US$ for most of its import prices, I believe.

However, the reason for the comment is that doesn't factor in Chinese importers exposure to the USD / Chinese Yuan. China after all doesn't use the USD as a domestic currency.

While the NZD is to USD is going up, the USD to Chinese Yuan is going down (7.14 at the end of May, 6.58 now). This is offsetting the increase in the NZD to USD for Chinese importers meaning once both both currency pair's are considered, there is minimal price change in the exchange rate between the starting currency (NZD) and finishing currency (Yuan).

A rising exchange rate is obviously bad for exporters, but how does that materially impact ATM if the combination of the exchange rate pair's means the NZD is not going up to China consumers. (the US operations will be slightly less profitable, dido OZ). What am I not understanding?

[dreamcatcher]

A2 is definitely not being helped by the exchange rate.

I take it you mean AU$ / $NZ exchange rate affecting SP

[Balance]

However, the reason for the comment is that doesn't factor in Chinese importers exposure to the USD / Chinese Yuan. China after all doesn't use the USD as a domestic currency.

While the NZD is to USD is going up, the USD to Chinese Yuan is going down (7.14 at the end of May, 6.58 now). This is offsetting the increase in the NZD to USD for Chinese importers meaning once both both currency pair's are considered, there is minimal price change in the exchange rate between the starting currency (NZD) and finishing currency (Yuan).

A rising exchange rate is obviously bad for exporters, but how does that materially impact ATM if the combination of the exchange rate pair's means the NZD is not going up to China consumers. (the US operations will be slightly less profitable, dido OZ). What am I not understanding?

I can only relay my understanding from talking to a produce exporter to China - meat, seafood, fruits and honey - their export prices to China are in US$ and they will feel the full impact once their forward cover runs out.

[xp04]

However, the reason for the comment is that doesn't factor in Chinese importers exposure to the USD / Chinese Yuan. China after all doesn't use the USD as a domestic currency.

While the NZD is to USD is going up, the USD to Chinese Yuan is going down (7.14 at the end of May, 6.58 now). This is offsetting the increase in the NZD to USD for Chinese importers meaning once both both currency pair's are considered, there is minimal price change in the exchange rate between the starting currency (NZD) and finishing currency (Yuan).

A rising exchange rate is obviously bad for exporters, but how does that materially impact ATM if the combination of the exchange rate pair's means the NZD is not going up to China consumers. (the US operations will be slightly less profitable, dido OZ). What am I not understanding?

Answer to this is very simple, A2 conduct its business in China in US$. As for US operations actually it will help a bit, as US business is not profitable at the moment and supported by sales in China

[alokdhir]

I can only relay my understanding from talking to a produce exporter to China - meat, seafood, fruits and honey - their export prices to China are in US$ and they will feel the full impact once their forward cover runs out.

Please guys lets not over analyse things . ATM did well at 0.75 USD to NZD rates also as its just one of the variables in the mix . But at present the logistics of one of the main legs of their business is under stress due to disruptions mainly because of Covid situation . So if Covid recovery theme is the flavour of the next 6 months then ATM recovery should also be on the horizon ...rather then the gloom and doom stories coming out from every where .

Someone recommends buying KFL at almost 10% premium to NAV as he likes their exceptional stock picks but berates one of their main picks ATM , suggesting it can depreciate further 40% from its present price . To me it seems very contradictory views on the same website :confused:

Geo political reasons got discussed in a NZH article also quoting Chairman in a interview after the ASM .

Dairy exports are NZ's bread and butter with China being most important buyer / consumer .

I think I will grant our leadership respect enough that they will do utmost not to disrupt it in anyway ...especially at this time .

So for me A2 suffering Ozzy wine fate chance is very very little . Though people are talking about it including Chairman by trying to emphasis time and again that they are a NZ company and trying to make that more obvious by having new manufacturing facility in NZ too , owned by ATM .

All companies go through challenging times ...ATM is going thru one ...mainly due to Covid disruptions which highlighted again the importance of daigou channels to them ....many thought they replaced that completely ...but actually its still very important .

So why cant we put ATM stock as Covid recovery stock ?

[Waltzing]

NZ leadership is threading the needle.. the geo risk to the stock has so far been low. dont expect 13/60 to be tested for long if ever if the numbers are good.

[allfromacell]

Management recently highlighted a weaker NZD / USD as being favourable as all the China trade is conducted in USD, they've also stated previously it's the most important currency pair for the business second the AUD/NZD it only makes sense the opposite is unfavorable. I'm not saying the impact is crippling or anything but just another headwind a2 management need to sail against.

[see weed]

OK I am starting to get this. If you make a 6K to 8k loss on a short term TPW trade you can sell an equivalent amount of A2 shares such that your profit on the A2 share sale exactly cancels out your TPW trade loss dollars and you have a tax free capital injection for Christmas. Plus you can bank the TPW dividend which will already have tax deducted from it. But where does buying more A2 shares at a lower price come into the picture?

Sorry don't have any TPW shares I can offer you. Never held and with all the rag tag of assets they own I have found it difficult to analyse.

SNOOPY
Hi Snoopy, something like that, but don't want to bore people on the a2 thread with my tax obligations. The profits I make is not just from a2 but all companies I buy into. I can explain it in more detail at the next sharetrader meeting or at the fortnightly sharetrading meetings we have with the 'Auckland Meetup Group'. As for buying more a2 shares at the lower end of the cycle, I just can't help myself....gambler.... and when they go up again.......more profit:eek2:

[Getty]

Basic Question.

If ya cant get ya opium through ya daigou channel, wouldnt ya just get it online, or down at ya flaming local stockist???

Next basic question.
If you knew you sold X amount of product previously into a market, through daigou/backdoor/smuggling, and you knew that channel had become compromised, would you just hope it comes right, or promote the other channels into that market, or find other markets for X+, that may have a similar predisposition to the product, eg; Thailand, Vietnam, Indonesia, Phillipines?

Doey, not hui.

[winner69]

From Kingfish announcements it appears as if they are still buying / accumulating / taking a punt on A2

Looks like they about a million more shares than six months ago

[Leftfield]

From Kingfish announcements it appears as if they are still buying / accumulating / taking a punt on A2
Looks like they about a million more shares than six months ago

I take that as a positive Winner, been a bit of drama on this thread the last week while I was away..... sad to see Couta silenced.

The shorts are still active and looks like the SP is going going to be depressed until the new CEO is entrenched and reports positive progress.

12105

While the long term picture is still intact, I post less on ATM these days as my 'free hold' shares aren't typical and I feel for those being hit by the current uncertainty.

40% of my portfolio and still a hold IMHO ... Kingfish or shorters aren't prying any from my tight grip.

[bull....]

Upsetting New Zealand’s most significant trading partner seems like a very silly thing to do. So, why, Chris Trotter asks, did Foreign Minister Nanaia Mahuta do it?

https://www.interest.co.nz/opinion/108071/upsetting-new-zealand%E2%80%99s-most-significant-trading-partner-seems-very-silly-thing-do-so

[dobby41]

Upsetting New Zealand’s most significant trading partner seems like a very silly thing to do. So, why, Chris Trotter asks, did Foreign Minister Nanaia Mahuta do it?

https://www.interest.co.nz/opinion/108071/upsetting-new-zealand%E2%80%99s-most-significant-trading-partner-seems-very-silly-thing-do-so


Like becoming Nuclear Free really - at some point you, as a country, stand up and be counted for what you believe rather than meekly say 'yes sir, please sir, whatever you say sir'.
NZ tries to stand-up but not stand too tall and be chopped down.

[Bjauck]

Upsetting New Zealand’s most significant trading partner seems like a very silly thing to do. So, why, Chris Trotter asks, did Foreign Minister Nanaia Mahuta do it?

https://www.interest.co.nz/opinion/108071/upsetting-new-zealand%E2%80%99s-most-significant-trading-partner-seems-very-silly-thing-do-so


It is quite ironic that NZ joined the UK and the other five eyes nations in insisting that China uphold the Joint Declaration Treaty with the UK on Hong Kong. The UK itself has threatened to disregard its Treaty with European Countries if it becomes inconvenient.

Why is it called the Five Eyes and not the Ten Eyes? Is it because each of the five nations is one-eyed?

[alokdhir]

From Kingfish announcements it appears as if they are still buying / accumulating / taking a punt on A2

Looks like they about a million more shares than six months ago

U sure have a very keen eye buddy . Last NAV report had it at 14 % up from 13% on last week while price went down slightly ...clearly shows they adding to their position .

Many have great regard for the Kingfish portfolio and its outperformance as its price keeps going up just for its 2% divvy policy , total disconnect at the moment to its intrinsic worth . IMHO this story will not end well ....I mean KFL SP ...not their outperformance . ATM is their Top pick for next year boost to NAV after FPH / MFT having done a lot this year !!

[dobby41]

It is quite ironic that NZ joined the UK and the other five eyes nations in insisting that China uphold the Joint Declaration Treaty with the UK on Hong Kong. The UK itself has threatened to disregard its Treaty with European Countries if it becomes inconvenient.

Why is it called the Five Eyes and not the Ten Eyes? Is it because each of the five nations is one-eyed?

And many countries (not sure if NZ was one of them) called the UK out for that.
Note - the UK threatened but hasn't yet, China threatened and has.

[Bjauck]

And many countries (not sure if NZ was one of them) called the UK out for that.
Note - the UK threatened but hasn't yet, China threatened and has. Many parties and people within the UK also called the UK government out on it too. The British treaty breaking provisions are in a bill (Internal Market Bill) that is currently going through the UK Houses of Parliament. The UK government (run by right-winger Boris Johnson) fully intends the Treaty breaking provisions to become law. I think this threat and intention are enough for the British Government (and Five Eyes) moral high-ground to be undermined when it comes to the attitude to International Treaties and law.

EU launches legal action against UK over controversial Brexit bill
https://www.euronews.com/2020/10/01/watch-live-von-der-leyen-makes-brexit-statement-after-uk-mps-approve-controversial-bill

[winner69]

U sure have a very keen eye buddy . Last NAV report had it at 14 % up from 13% on last week while price went down slightly ...clearly shows they adding to their position .

Many have great regard for the Kingfish portfolio and its outperformance as its price keeps going up just for its 2% divvy policy , total disconnect at the moment to its intrinsic worth . IMHO this story will not end well ....I mean KFL SP ...not their outperformance . ATM is their Top pick for next year boost to NAV after FPH / MFT having done a lot this year !!

at June 30th A2 was 14.6% of KFL holdings about $60m at share rice of $20.19

The fund is 11% larger now and even though A2 share price was $14.54 A2 was reported as 14% (probably 13.6% in reality).

Sort of says that they now have 1.3 million more shares than at June 30th and about $63m invested in A2

Strong support / belief for/in the A2 story and its long term future.

As couts say its the 87% real investors like Kingfish slowly increasing their overall share

[Waltzing]

geo risk increasing, remember our politicians are new at the job... i dont think they are going to rock the boat though..(hey arnt that silly are they) , next report is awaited.. Kingfish have been done well .. so far.

so much for no likely hood of china doing to NZ what its done to Aus.

[Leftfield]

A2 liquid UHT milk now launched in China via JD Mall and T mall. See link here. (https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/media-updates.4489996/page-6473?post_id=49082024)

Good to see this strategy to diversify away from IF powder and extend market penetration into other age groups.

I stand to be corrected, but understand the A2 UHT milk is being sourced ex Aus (effectively broadening distribution channels into China as well.)

[Lion_graf]

More Competition


Keytone Dairy (ASX:KTD) is pleased to announce it has received a materially increased sales forecast from Nouriz (Shanghai) Fine Food Co., Ltd (“Nouriz China”) for the manufacture of Nouriz China’s private label whole and skim milk powder into China for calendar year 2021.



Nouriz China has provided Keytone with a materially increased sales forecast, up by 24 per cent for the next calendar year, compared with the prior 12 months to October 2020. The growth comes on the back of:

a significantly increased sales forecast received from Walmart China (announced to the ASX on 24 September 2020) of NZD $7.2m, 257% larger than the 12 months of Walmart sales to September 2020 and 3.8x larger than the prior Walmart China forecast provided; and
a key contract win with leading New Zealand grocer Foodstuffs for the manufacture of their whole and skim milk powders, forecast to be worth NZD $7.1m over two years.

[daveypnz]

Competition isn't necessarily a bad thing, it shows there is significant demand for the product(s).

[Gunner]

Competition isn't necessarily a bad thing, it shows there is significant demand for the product(s).

Unless someone else is moving in on your patch.

[Lion_graf]

Unless someone else is moving in on your patch.

We talk about demand but its market share that really counts

[Justin]

most important for this stock is growth rate, will be slow down or ramp it up? We can still guessing until next result.

[Beagle]

Probably should clarify a few things.
1. $10 is one possible outcome I am modelling, its not a 40% drop from here, its about 30%. Its just one of several future possibilities I am modelling.
2. I can't control or influence what Kingfish are doing or buying other than talk to the investment manager at the annual meeting or ring them if I am deeply concerned. Neither is likely to have any impact on what they are doing.
3. I have tried talking to Couta1 many, many, many times over many, many years about the risks of having most of your eggs in one basket. I recently gave up because he doesn't listen.
4. Nobody knows the future with absolute crystal clear certainty and I believe having 90% in one share is an exceptionally risky approach. Its something worse than gross recklessness in my opinion.
5. I have learned in my professional career and in more than a decade and 17,000 posts on here that some people can't be helped and it is better to move on and try and help others who can learn and that was the spirit in which my comments were made.
6. Coutts has my phone number, I'm sure he'll ring me when he's ready. Probably a bit annoyed with me but a real friend calls it how they really see it.

Moving on...I do not like companies that depend for a vast amount of their revenue on sales into China especially in this very heightened geopolitical environment.
Who's to say that the Chinese communist party will play fair going forward ? Easy enough for them to issue an edict that all mothers must breast feed their babies as but one example of many things that could happen in the future. Nobody has a crystal clear crystal ball with which to predict the future so a wise man hedges his bets. This is especially important for anyone very close to their retirement years.

[dreamcatcher]

More Competition


Keytone Dairy (ASX:KTD) is pleased to announce it has received a materially increased sales forecast from Nouriz (Shanghai) Fine Food Co., Ltd (“Nouriz China”) for the manufacture of Nouriz China’s private label whole and skim milk powder into China for calendar year 2021.



Nouriz China has provided Keytone with a materially increased sales forecast, up by 24 per cent for the next calendar year, compared with the prior 12 months to October 2020. The growth comes on the back of:

a significantly increased sales forecast received from Walmart China (announced to the ASX on 24 September 2020) of NZD $7.2m, 257% larger than the 12 months of Walmart sales to September 2020 and 3.8x larger than the prior Walmart China forecast provided; and
a key contract win with leading New Zealand grocer Foodstuffs for the manufacture of their whole and skim milk powders, forecast to be worth NZD $7.1m over two years.

Wasn't aware a2 sells whole or skim milk powders ?

[Scrunch]

More Competition


Keytone Dairy (ASX:KTD) is pleased to announce it has received a materially increased sales forecast from Nouriz (Shanghai) Fine Food Co., Ltd (“Nouriz China”) for the manufacture of Nouriz China’s private label whole and skim milk powder into China for calendar year 2021.



Nouriz China has provided Keytone with a materially increased sales forecast, up by 24 per cent for the next calendar year, compared with the prior 12 months to October 2020. The growth comes on the back of:

a significantly increased sales forecast received from Walmart China (announced to the ASX on 24 September 2020) of NZD $7.2m, 257% larger than the 12 months of Walmart sales to September 2020 and 3.8x larger than the prior Walmart China forecast provided; and
a key contract win with leading New Zealand grocer Foodstuffs for the manufacture of their whole and skim milk powders, forecast to be worth NZD $7.1m over two years.

KTD may be growing, but they are currently relatively speaking, very small. Their annual sales are not a lot different to what ATM sells each week.

[porkandpuha]

3. I have tried talking to Couta1 many, many, many times over many, many years about the risks of having most of your eggs in one basket. I recently gave up because he doesn't listen.
4. Nobody knows the future with absolute crystal clear certainty and I believe having 90% in one share is an exceptionally risky approach. Its something worse than gross recklessness in my opinion.
5. I have learned in my professional career and in more than a decade and 17,000 posts on here that some people can't be helped and it is better to move on and try and help others who can learn and that was the spirit in which my comments were made.
6. Coutts has my phone number, I'm sure he'll ring me when he's ready. Probably a bit annoyed with me but a real friend calls it how they really see it.



I can't believe this is still being discussed 50 pages later. It appears you may be more hung up on proving your investing methods are right, as opposed to "helping" anyone. For the same reason you are frustrated with Couta being closed to your point of view, I expect you are just as closed off to him trying to preach the opposite view when he tries to "help" you.

A real investor accepts that everyone has a different appetite for risk. A "real friend" accepts them even more.

Move on.

[Beagle]

I can't believe this is still being discussed 50 pages later. It appears you may be more hung up on proving your investing methods are right, as opposed to "helping" anyone. For the same reason you are frustrated with Couta being closed to your point of view, I expect you are just as closed off to him trying to preach the opposite view when he tries to "help" you.

A real investor accepts that everyone has a different appetite for risk. A "real friend" accepts them even more.

Move on.

I have moved on, was simply responding to some of the things that have been said since last posting in this thread. Thank you for your "expert" psychological assessment.

[Getty]

Kino Kuri sometimes finish up in the pot with the Puha.

[RupertBear]

I can't believe this is still being discussed 50 pages later. It appears you may be more hung up on proving your investing methods are right, as opposed to "helping" anyone. For the same reason you are frustrated with Couta being closed to your point of view, I expect you are just as closed off to him trying to preach the opposite view when he tries to "help" you.

A real investor accepts that everyone has a different appetite for risk. A "real friend" accepts them even more.

Move on.

Agree. A real friend doesnt trash you on a public forum. Its not helpful and not ok IMO.

[HKG2301]

...I do not like companies that depend for a vast amount of their revenue on sales into China especially in this very heightened geopolitical environment.

That applies to a huge part of NZ's export market. However, with risk comes opportunity...

Markets pumping overnight due drop in uncertainty levels. Despite his election rhetoric (aimed at defusing Trump's attempt to make China an election issue), Biden is likely to calm the waters with China, so I see geopolitical tensions easing next year, hopefully.

[longy]

Wasn't aware a2 sells whole or skim milk powders ?

Yes they do. I bought a few bags for my wife over the lock down from Chemistwarehouse.

[Motley Crew]

"3. I have tried talking to Couta1 many, many, many times over many, many years about the risks of having most of your eggs in one basket. I recently gave up because he doesn't listen.
4. Nobody knows the future with absolute crystal clear certainty and I believe having 90% in one share is an exceptionally risky approach. Its something worse than gross recklessness in my opinion.
5. I have learned in my professional career and in more than a decade and 17,000 posts on here that some people can't be helped and it is better to move on and try and help others who can learn and that was the spirit in which my comments were made.
6. Coutts has my phone number, I'm sure he'll ring me when he's ready. Probably a bit annoyed with me but a real friend calls it how they really see it."



I have stayed away from making the type of comment I am about to make, but it now really has to be said -
Beagle - Your comments clearly show you for what you are - an arrogant s.o.b. Couta has his way of investing and I make no comment on that. Each to their own. I have found some of Couta's comments to be quite well presented and useful, like many other contributor's comments. Your's I have a problem with - It is not for others on this forum to comment on others personal investing strategies by claiming that their way is best. It is even more arrogant of you to expect Couta to call you - Why would he ? I don't think you are the LGA that you clearly think you are, and who we should all turn to for advice to learn from, regardless of how many posts on this forum makes you think you are the Expert.

[alokdhir]

Probably should clarify a few things.
1. $10 is one possible outcome I am modelling, its not a 40% drop from here, its about 30%. Its just one of several future possibilities I am modelling.
2. I can't control or influence what Kingfish are doing or buying other than talk to the investment manager at the annual meeting or ring them if I am deeply concerned. Neither is likely to have any impact on what they are doing.

Fair enough that one of your models is showing that worst case outcome to be $ 10 ....I can live with that .ie $ 4 down from here ...makes my risk of investing or holding as further $ 4 erosion ...on best case outcome its SP reaching $ 23 in 9 months ...ie $ 9 upside ...so clearly risk/ reward favours holding or investing more

Secondly I had highlighted before too why I will be giving more weightage to the judgment of Fisher funds managers about ATM then your expert opinion here ( though I agree that u also have great market wisdom ) ...Fisher funds as a whole has about $ 1 billion invested in ATM in various funds of their ...so they get special access to management and their presentations etc ( not talking about insider info here but about better access to knowledge about what they doing and why ) and they do their own deep research in the field too as its their job not hobby

Fisher funds have superb past track record and they chose ATM to be their main investment after it passes many investment criteria STEEP ...

Thirdly in this frothy market where retail investors are setting new records of over paying ...eg buying BRM at 20% premium to NAV ..etc etc ...I see ATM offering good value as an high quality stock not at lofty levels .

We all know the reasons why its $ 14.50 and not $ 25 at present ...like FPH posted best results ever and still stock ended down as all already knew and asking what ahead after vaccine works ? Whats ahead of ATM will start getting attention soon and then no one is going to wait for it to show actual results or upgrade to us before it reaches $ 18 in a hurry :D

[Balance]

I have stayed away from making the type of comment I am about to make, but it now really has to be said -
Beagle - Your comments clearly show you for what you are - an arrogant s.o.b. Couta has his way of investing and I make no comment on that. Each to their own. I have found some of Couta's comments to be quite well presented and useful, like many other contributor's comments. Your's I have a problem with - It is not for others on this forum to comment on others personal investing strategies by claiming that their way is best. It is even more arrogant of you to expect Couta to call you - Why would he ? I don't think you are the LGA that you clearly think you are, and who we should all turn to for advice to learn from, regardless of how many posts on this forum makes you think you are the Expert.

Let's all take a chill pill and recognize that Beagle and Couta1 are actually good friends and have been ribbing each other for quite a while.

Beagle has been receiving a bit of stick for his comments here but unlike some other posters, he does it in the spirit of articulating his views rather than admonishing Couta1.

I am sure Couta1 does not need anyone to stand up for him being the single minded and focused individual he obviously is.

Have a lovey day, everyone.

[xp04]

"3. I have tried talking to Couta1 many, many, many times over many, many years about the risks of having most of your eggs in one basket. I recently gave up because he doesn't listen.
4. Nobody knows the future with absolute crystal clear certainty and I believe having 90% in one share is an exceptionally risky approach. Its something worse than gross recklessness in my opinion.
5. I have learned in my professional career and in more than a decade and 17,000 posts on here that some people can't be helped and it is better to move on and try and help others who can learn and that was the spirit in which my comments were made.
6. Coutts has my phone number, I'm sure he'll ring me when he's ready. Probably a bit annoyed with me but a real friend calls it how they really see it."



I have stayed away from making the type of comment I am about to make, but it now really has to be said -
Beagle - Your comments clearly show you for what you are - an arrogant s.o.b. Couta has his way of investing and I make no comment on that. Each to their own. I have found some of Couta's comments to be quite well presented and useful, like many other contributor's comments. Your's I have a problem with - It is not for others on this forum to comment on others personal investing strategies by claiming that their way is best. It is even more arrogant of you to expect Couta to call you - Why would he ? I don't think you are the LGA that you clearly think you are, and who we should all turn to for advice to learn from, regardless of how many posts on this forum makes you think you are the Expert.

Someone had to say it. Well done

[Beagle]

Jeez, looks like the ATM "Hope and Prayer" group are missing their demigod Couta already. Never mind that he absolutely trashed anyone with an opposite opinion and slagged them off, adding screeds of useless pages on the thread, you get dragged through the coals for replying ONCE, nicely, succinctly and truthfully, to previous posts and explaining your position. What an absolute load of horses*** from those users and hypocritical as hell.

This is exactly why I quit ST, FP and HC over the years - people that only want to listen to the echo chamber answers always flood the thread and drown out reasoned discussion and facts. The internet really can be a cesspool at times - I find myself withdrawing from it and only allowing it to be a one-way street (ie. me taking in information, not adding anything).

Keep up the good work mate, there are people listening, but if you do give up one day, trust me, no one would blame you...

Copy of email received from former poster Moosie yesterday. Those who have only been here for 5 seconds should focus on making a series of really meaningful contributions before having the audacity to sit in moral judgment on those who have made thousands over the last decade.

To me this thread is ostensibly New Zealand's version of the Tesla Cult. There is no room for objective debate. All people want to hear is positivity and therefore there is no point in me posting any further on this thread. I'm perfectly entitled to post negative rep for judgmental posts so nobody should be surprised that I have. Over and out from ATM.

[Dotbond]

Beagle: Lots of readers , especially myself, in this thread and the OCA thread, appreciate your comments and wisdom and insight of companies and the sharemarket. Dont stop because a couple of people say you should stop.

Cheers Trev

[ba9]

A lot of us would agree, the whole situation has just blown out of proportion. Sending private emails and criticizing someone is just shameful.

Beagle. Please do not stop posting on this thread. Your insights, research and experience are extremely valuable to lots of readers :)

[Sideshow Bob]

I thought sharing alternate points of view, methodology and information was the reason for the forum? Not just looking for affirming ones opinion and having a whole lot of group think and reef fish.

Play the ball, not the man.

[sb9]

Probably should clarify a few things.
1. $10 is one possible outcome I am modelling, its not a 40% drop from here, its about 30%. Its just one of several future possibilities I am modelling.
2. I can't control or influence what Kingfish are doing or buying other than talk to the investment manager at the annual meeting or ring them if I am deeply concerned. Neither is likely to have any impact on what they are doing.

Fair enough that one of your models is showing that worst case outcome to be $ 10 ....I can live with that .ie $ 4 down from here ...makes my risk of investing or holding as further $ 4 erosion ...on best case outcome its SP reaching $ 23 in 9 months ...ie $ 9 upside ...so clearly risk/ reward favours holding or investing more

Secondly I had highlighted before too why I will be giving more weightage to the judgment of Fisher funds managers about ATM then your expert opinion here ( though I agree that u also have great market wisdom ) ...Fisher funds as a whole has about $ 1 billion invested in ATM in various funds of their ...so they get special access to management and their presentations etc ( not talking about insider info here but about better access to knowledge about what they doing and why ) and they do their own deep research in the field too as its their job not hobby

Fisher funds have superb past track record and they chose ATM to be their main investment after it passes many investment criteria STEEP ...

Thirdly in this frothy market where retail investors are setting new records of over paying ...eg buying BRM at 20% premium to NAV ..etc etc ...I see ATM offering good value as an high quality stock not at lofty levels .

We all know the reasons why its $ 14.50 and not $ 25 at present ...like FPH posted best results ever and still stock ended down as all already knew and asking what ahead after vaccine works ? Whats ahead of ATM will start getting attention soon and then no one is going to wait for it to show actual results or upgrade to us before it reaches $ 18 in a hurry :D

$10-$12 range is definitely takeover territory for this gem.

[BlackPeter]

A lot of us would agree, the whole situation has just blown out of proportion. Sending private emails and criticizing someone is just shameful.

Beagle. Please do not stop posting on this thread. Your insights, research and experience are extremely valuable to lots of readers :)

I second that. I am sure that beagle and couta are quite capable to sorting out their different views without the input of self appointed moral apostles ... and I enjoy and appreciate the contributions of both posters. Nothing I have seen here from any of them looked to me written in bad faith or malicious in any way.

People being humans tend to be subject to a number of biases .... and I think we all can learn a lot from (not just this) this thread how owning something changes the mind of the owner towards focusing more on the potential benefits of the object (or subject :) ) than on the risks. Good on couta on demonstrating this effect for everybody to learn and good on beagle to point out the risks of the all eggs into one basket strategy.

We need both of your inputs ... and I would like to see both of you coming back.

[RupertBear]

Agree. A real friend doesnt trash you on a public forum. Its not helpful and not ok IMO.

Apparently I am not allowed to have an opinion on this...So I get another negative rep from the Beagle :t_down:

[Motley Crew]

I thought sharing alternate points of view, methodology and information was the reason for the forum? Not just looking for affirming ones opinion and having a whole lot of group think and reef fish.

Play the ball, not the man.

Exactly. Share facts about the companies we all invest in, and don't personally criticise the investing strategies of individuals. Each to their own, and each has a reason for doing what they do which they are not obligated to explain to anyone else. Or even try to. I have been investing for nearly 40 years and have been overweight in many stocks from time to time as part of MY strategy - which is no one else's business. And it has all worked out just fine. Just being a Johnny Come Lately contributor on this forum does not undo any of those investing achievements over 40 years. Maybe if I quickly post another 16,999 posts Beagle will consider me an Expert of equal standing. But I would suggest like all other things in life it is Quality not Quantity that counts. Except that Quantity in terms of $$ returns from investing is pretty much up there as well otherwise we all wouldn't be on this forum ! Onwards and upwards.

[see weed]

sw 2c worth..... come back couta1 and come back Beagle. I sit on both sides of fence and sometimes have 100% in one stock for a little while. We need both to come back. And while you are at it..... Bring back Buck....:t_up:

[Sideshow Bob]

In terms of the argument with heavy weighting (in A2), it is simply because many here were earlier shareholders and bought sub $1. It has given some individuals tremendous gains and much increased wealth. I would expect some (like me) have sold down or been in & out, and not that it necessarily makes it right in terms of investment strategy, but would be free carry.

I can't blame anyone of viewing A2 with milk-coloured glasses. Past experiences help form further expectations.....

[Motley Crew]

Let's all take a chill pill and recognize that Beagle and Couta1 are actually good friends and have been ribbing each other for quite a while.

Beagle has been receiving a bit of stick for his comments here but unlike some other posters, he does it in the spirit of articulating his views rather than admonishing Couta1.

I am sure Couta1 does not need anyone to stand up for him being the single minded and focused individual he obviously is.

Have a lovey day, everyone.

That is all very well, (not being critical !), but 'good friends' do not criticise each other on a public forum - they do it in private, probably in a fairly robust discussion. Criticising in public is just trying to win a popularity contest by seeking affirmation from the masses that one's own comments are the only correct ones.
I have it on good authority - Don't hold your breath about there being any phone calls between these two any time soon. Criticism cuts deep. Stick to discussing the companies we all invest in, their prospects and your interpretations of their announcements / financial information. Personally I think it would be great if Beagle and Couta1 returned to share their wisdom, but not to criticise and attack others investing strategies, or having to defend their own. I do not see that as being what this forum is all about - such behaviour just detracts from the value of the informative posts and creates a lot of 'noise' that we other readers have to wade through to get to the good bits !

[kizame]

my 2c worth,and I don't come on here often anymore.

Forgive and forget,lets move on.

Talk about ATM, way worth talking about. I do love this company but currently not a holder,but waiting for the turn.

[porkandpuha]

Copy of email received from former poster Moosie yesterday. Those who have only been here for 5 seconds should focus on making a series of really meaningful contributions before having the audacity to sit in moral judgment on those who have made thousands over the last decade.


Again trying to prove how right you are, because Moosie said so. The point still being, nobody cares how the next man chooses to invest their hard earned. And certainly nobody intends to try fix someone else because they have a different appetite for risk. FWIW I agree that 90% in one holding is far too exposed, but I don't intend to spend 50 pages spamming all the reasons why I am right and they are wrong in the middle of a thread about A2. And if a 'meaningful contribution ' is listing 6 points and having 4 of them talk about why Couta is wrong, then maybe I am doing this forum wrong but regardless of portfolio size or number of forum posts, crap behaviour should be called out.

Whether you see this or not, who knows. I see you have left the thread for the 8th time in the past 3 months... See you next week I guess

[LEMON]

Yawn, battle of the egos.

Can we get back to talking about A2?

[Leftfield]

Yawn, battle of the egos. Can we get back to talking about A2?

Agree.... and nice to see the SP getting a bit more interesting this arvo...

[Gregnz]

Agree.... and nice to see the SP getting a bit more interesting this arvo...

Have UBS released the park brake?

[Leftfield]

Have UBS released the park brake?

I don't follow UBS. They swing both ways going both short and long.

However, at some stage the shorters need to get out and maybe that is beginning to happen.

That said, I'm biased and this is just one day..... so let's wait for a new trend to get established before we get excited.

[alokdhir]

I don't follow UBS. They swing both ways going both short and long.

However, at some stage the shorters need to get out and maybe that is beginning to happen.

That said, I'm biased and this is just one day..... so let's wait for a new trend to get established before we get excited.

SP tried to make new low but failed ...sitting around 14.40 levels since 18th ASM ...now its trying to test its higher limits .

Seems 13.96 low of Nov 6th holding so far ...All good signs ...Coutta's target of $ 25 possible late next year if we dont make any new lows ...From TA point of view only !:t_up:

[Leftfield]

SP tried to make new low but failed ...sitting around 14.40 levels since 18th ASM ...now its trying to test its higher limits .

Seems 13.96 low of Nov 6th holding so far ...All good signs ...Coutta's target of $ 25 possible late next year if we dont make any new lows ...From TA point of view only !:t_up:

Nothing wrong with your TA viewpoint IMHO.

Just a question of time till Couta's target is reached.... (but then I'm biased.)

[Leftfield]

Possible reason for today's A2 SP gain is takeover of Lion Dairy in Aus by BEGA ( Better link here) (https://www.abc.net.au/news/rural/2020-11-26/bega-cheese-to-buy-lion-dairy-from-japanese-kirin/12910480)

[Ted2]

Again trying to prove how right you are, because Moosie said so. The point still being, nobody cares how the next man chooses to invest their hard earned. And certainly nobody intends to try fix someone else because they have a different appetite for risk. FWIW I agree that 90% in one holding is far too exposed, but I don't intend to spend 50 pages spamming all the reasons why I am right and they are wrong in the middle of a thread about A2. And if a 'meaningful contribution ' is listing 6 points and having 4 of them talk about why Couta is wrong, then maybe I am doing this forum wrong but regardless of portfolio size or number of forum posts, crap behaviour should be called out.

Whether you see this or not, who knows. I see you have left the thread for the 8th time in the past 3 months... See you next week I guess

I have always found this forum to be insightful and a source of great information. Just like real life you have to pick and choose what is valuable and what is not. Everyone should be allowed an opinion (although there have been some perhaps who could have had less of one) and everyone has different situations.


I have been in the Coutts camp to a degree. I've admitted before that I have too much of a soft spot for my white gold. However if you were in the top 100 holders, which I very fortunately am, and had ridden A2 since buying your entire holding at 50c with a top up at 65c, you may view things in a different way. I sold 20,000 at around $2.50 to get a chunk of my original stake back, so my holding now averages far less than 50c per share. A2 grew from maybe 20% to over 90% of my portfolio over 5 years.

Did this give me the odd heart palpitation? Yes. Did I know I was in risky territory? Yes. But despite knowing that 'diversification' was the 'sound' strategy, I also read some wise words about 'letting your winners run'. If I had listened to the 'experts' I would not have a holding that will help me retire, or buy the biggest and most expensive house(s) I could have ever dreamed of.

I have 'lost' enough over the last two months that could buy a nice house anywhere except Auckland, but still have a holding that is up almost 2500% and will allow me to retire well or do whatever I want to. Am I annoyed right now? Yes. Should I have sold at $20 when her indoors suggested? Probably. Am I ruthless enough? No. Is hindsight wonderful? Yes.
I have been invested for the long term and whilst it has been tempting to cash out at times, I decided I knew of nothing else that would give me the return I was getting. I feel I've been luckier than I could ever dreamed of (I only ever dreamed of a 2-3 bagger) and it has been too hard to cut the tie. But I will when I want or need to!

A2 has always had risk. China has and always will be of some concern. But sometimes the greatest risks also deliver the greatest benefits and A2 is the epitome of that. Will our woke government 's latest gaffe be enough for China to pick on A2? Unlikely. Will China mandate breast feeding and kill baby formula? Hardly! Will Daigou's not come back in mass for another 12 months? Yep may happen.

The main reason for the latest large drop is that for the first time ever A2 delivered news that was not entirely positive. I've been through many swings of a $1-$2 gain or drop over a day or two on no news and good news. This is the largest for sure but long term they're still making a fortune and it is hard to argue this will not continue.

Yes my post numbers are not high - which will obviously annoy some. That is partly because a crash years ago lost all of my previous posts and I started from scratch again. It still wouldn't be a high number anyway though, because differently from real life, I only make a comment when I think I can add something. I don't post vexatiously just to get my post numbers up to look experienced. There are far more knowledgeable posters here than I, despite A2 being the stock I do know most about. I am happy to listen to all (well most anyway) and value them. It does seem that many posters here are more traders than investors, as a small jump or drop seems to mean an immediate buy or sell is justified. I could never have traded this stock and be in the position I am now.

Each to his own, but I thought compelled to share my story because of the antagonism going on lately. Coutts may be in a similar position and in my opinion, therefore justified in his view, even if he may have appeared a little emotional over it at times. Many of the posters I respect most (B, S, L) have noted judgement on Coutts, albeit more constructively, but I feel some experts here just want to get their numbers up and love the thrill of keyboard warrior-ing!

But for me, those who bag him just may have have different views if you were in a similar position. I'm happy to call it lucky......

[kiora]

Hear ,hear
Great post TED 2
There are the sayings
1)Let your good ones run
2)If you are going to sell something, sell the underperformers
3)Utilize the benefit of compounding returns

A 7% higher compounding return over a long time really does add up to a significant amount.
To give you an idea if your strategy is working out for you
Compare your returns to the superfund (around 10% compounding since inception)and work out how much more you have succeeded or not.
https://www.nzsuperfund.nz/performance/investment/monthly-returns/

[777]

Nice post TED2. While I did not get in quite as early as you did, I have followed a similar course.

[Jay]

Yes good post Ted2 - should stayed in a long time ago but needed the funds at the time, then it is almost like a MFT and FPH - seems too expensive, but just keeps going up

[Pauper]

Great post Ted, thanks for sharing and well done! Mine’s a similar story but not quite as spectacular. ATM still over 50% of my portfolio. Sold a chunk 3 years ago and retired, can’t bring myself to part with any more. Future’s too bright.

[Justin]

It’s depend when you bought the share, image the ppl who bought last year, they all underwater now. and maybe different tide this time.

[Leftfield]

It’s depend when you bought the share, image the ppl who bought last year, they all underwater now. and maybe different tide this time.

Of course, but don't forget that even the current long term holders were underwater at times. But they held.... and are now much wealthier.

Those that are underwater now, just have to be patient. This company will continue to outperform NZX 50 and the SP will rise above $20. Just a question of time.

JMHO - and yes I'm biased so take responsibility for your own decisions.

[RupertBear]

I have always found this forum to be insightful and a source of great information. Just like real life you have to pick and choose what is valuable and what is not. Everyone should be allowed an opinion (although there have been some perhaps who could have had less of one) and everyone has different situations.




I have been in the Coutts camp to a degree. I've admitted before that I have too much of a soft spot for my white gold. However if you were in the top 100 holders, which I very fortunately am, and had ridden A2 since buying your entire holding at 50c with a top up at 65c, you may view things in a different way. I sold 20,000 at around $2.50 to get a chunk of my original stake back, so my holding now averages far less than 50c per share. A2 grew from maybe 20% to over 90% of my portfolio over 5 years.

Did this give me the odd heart palpitation? Yes. Did I know I was in risky territory? Yes. But despite knowing that 'diversification' was the 'sound' strategy, I also read some wise words about 'letting your winners run'. If I had listened to the 'experts' I would not have a holding that will help me retire, or buy the biggest and most expensive house(s) I could have ever dreamed of.

I have 'lost' enough over the last two months that could buy a nice house anywhere except Auckland, but still have a holding that is up almost 2500% and will allow me to retire well or do whatever I want to. Am I annoyed right now? Yes. Should I have sold at $20 when her indoors suggested? Probably. Am I ruthless enough? No. Is hindsight wonderful? Yes.
I have been invested for the long term and whilst it has been tempting to cash out at times, I decided I knew of nothing else that would give me the return I was getting. I feel I've been luckier than I could ever dreamed of (I only ever dreamed of a 2-3 bagger) and it has been too hard to cut the tie. But I will when I want or need to!

A2 has always had risk. China has and always will be of some concern. But sometimes the greatest risks also deliver the greatest benefits and A2 is the epitome of that. Will our woke government 's latest gaffe be enough for China to pick on A2? Unlikely. Will China mandate breast feeding and kill baby formula? Hardly! Will Daigou's not come back in mass for another 12 months? Yep may happen.

The main reason for the latest large drop is that for the first time ever A2 delivered news that was not entirely positive. I've been through many swings of a $1-$2 gain or drop over a day or two on no news and good news. This is the largest for sure but long term they're still making a fortune and it is hard to argue this will not continue.

Yes my post numbers are not high - which will obviously annoy some. That is partly because a crash years ago lost all of my previous posts and I started from scratch again. It still wouldn't be a high number anyway though, because differently from real life, I only make a comment when I think I can add something. I don't post vexatiously just to get my post numbers up to look experienced. There are far more knowledgeable posters here than I, despite A2 being the stock I do know most about. I am happy to listen to all (well most anyway) and value them. It does seem that many posters here are more traders than investors, as a small jump or drop seems to mean an immediate buy or sell is justified. I could never have traded this stock and be in the position I am now.

Each to his own, but I thought compelled to share my story because of the antagonism going on lately. Coutts may be in a similar position and in my opinion, therefore justified in his view, even if he may have appeared a little emotional over it at times. Many of the posters I respect most (B, S, L) have noted judgement on Coutts, albeit more constructively, but I feel some experts here just want to get their numbers up and love the thrill of keyboard warrior-ing!

But for me, those who bag him just may have have different views if you were in a similar position. I'm happy to call it lucky......

A fabulous post TED2, thanks for sharing you thoughts and congrats on your success with ATM. Well done :)

[macduffy]

Yes, a great post TED2. My nomination for Post of the Year!

:)

[causecelebre]

This stock works like clock work. Gaps up at open and gradually sells off over the day

[kiora]

This stock works like clock work. Gaps up at open and gradually sells off over the day

So is that caused by someone accumulating or selling down?
It is the same with IFT

In both stocks volume vs average volume is relatively low

[Motley Crew]

I have always found this forum to be insightful and a source of great information. Just like real life you have to pick and choose what is valuable and what is not. Everyone should be allowed an opinion (although there have been some perhaps who could have had less of one) and everyone has different situations.


I have been in the Coutts camp to a degree. I've admitted before that I have too much of a soft spot for my white gold. However if you were in the top 100 holders, which I very fortunately am, and had ridden A2 since buying your entire holding at 50c with a top up at 65c, you may view things in a different way. I sold 20,000 at around $2.50 to get a chunk of my original stake back, so my holding now averages far less than 50c per share. A2 grew from maybe 20% to over 90% of my portfolio over 5 years.

Did this give me the odd heart palpitation? Yes. Did I know I was in risky territory? Yes. But despite knowing that 'diversification' was the 'sound' strategy, I also read some wise words about 'letting your winners run'. If I had listened to the 'experts' I would not have a holding that will help me retire, or buy the biggest and most expensive house(s) I could have ever dreamed of.

I have 'lost' enough over the last two months that could buy a nice house anywhere except Auckland, but still have a holding that is up almost 2500% and will allow me to retire well or do whatever I want to. Am I annoyed right now? Yes. Should I have sold at $20 when her indoors suggested? Probably. Am I ruthless enough? No. Is hindsight wonderful? Yes.
I have been invested for the long term and whilst it has been tempting to cash out at times, I decided I knew of nothing else that would give me the return I was getting. I feel I've been luckier than I could ever dreamed of (I only ever dreamed of a 2-3 bagger) and it has been too hard to cut the tie. But I will when I want or need to!

A2 has always had risk. China has and always will be of some concern. But sometimes the greatest risks also deliver the greatest benefits and A2 is the epitome of that. Will our woke government 's latest gaffe be enough for China to pick on A2? Unlikely. Will China mandate breast feeding and kill baby formula? Hardly! Will Daigou's not come back in mass for another 12 months? Yep may happen.

The main reason for the latest large drop is that for the first time ever A2 delivered news that was not entirely positive. I've been through many swings of a $1-$2 gain or drop over a day or two on no news and good news. This is the largest for sure but long term they're still making a fortune and it is hard to argue this will not continue.

Yes my post numbers are not high - which will obviously annoy some. That is partly because a crash years ago lost all of my previous posts and I started from scratch again. It still wouldn't be a high number anyway though, because differently from real life, I only make a comment when I think I can add something. I don't post vexatiously just to get my post numbers up to look experienced. There are far more knowledgeable posters here than I, despite A2 being the stock I do know most about. I am happy to listen to all (well most anyway) and value them. It does seem that many posters here are more traders than investors, as a small jump or drop seems to mean an immediate buy or sell is justified. I could never have traded this stock and be in the position I am now.

Each to his own, but I thought compelled to share my story because of the antagonism going on lately. Coutts may be in a similar position and in my opinion, therefore justified in his view, even if he may have appeared a little emotional over it at times. Many of the posters I respect most (B, S, L) have noted judgement on Coutts, albeit more constructively, but I feel some experts here just want to get their numbers up and love the thrill of keyboard warrior-ing!

But for me, those who bag him just may have have different views if you were in a similar position. I'm happy to call it lucky......


Great post Ted2. And yes, you don't need to have many thousands of posts to get your very good message across.

I am in the same very fortunate position as you, only my winner was XRO, which I bought for an average of 92c in 2007 and still hold a sizeable $$ holding in to this day in spite of many share price fluctuations, heart palpitations, pressure from 'her indoors' (a Chartered Accountant no less) to sell, and every other emotion you listed. And my new, soon to be built house is going to be fabulous ! Your point about letting winners run is spot on, although I did need some reassuring words in a phone call to Rod Drury to hang in there when the SP dropped from $45 to $12 a few years ago when XRO was over 90% of my portfolio. I made the situation worse by even buying more at about A$22 on the way back up ! Eventually the over-weighting got too high and I sold a few off to diversify and reap a little dividend income. All those stocks except CVT are in the black right now, including sizeable holdings in PPH and HLG. So if you believe in a stock, let it run. As a financial accountant type person XRO (to me) was a no-brainer. I believe ATM is also a no-brainer and liken this dip to the occasional one experienced by XRO over recent years - heck - they even went to $135 and down to $126 in a day this week - but today back to $134. It's a roller-coaster. Each to their own, and do what you have to do. If you can tolerate the lumpy bits then go for it and you may be handsomely rewarded.

So I reiterate the point I have made recently that it is not for posters to criticise others investing strategies. If I had listened to them over the last 13 years I would have sold out of XRO at $5 and be kicking myself black and blue every living day since. Do what YOU believe in and don't be swayed by others. Ultimately you only have yourself to answer to.

I am definitely one in the investor camp. The short term trading and day trading does not interest me. It consumes a lot of time and analysis, self flagellation and questioning when things go awry. The XRO experience has taught me that there is more than one way to skin a cat (apologies to fellow cat lovers out there for the analogy), and one's time can be spent profitably elsewhere while your winner is running on without needing to be watched 24/7

I have found it incredibly valuable reading and following the constructive and positive posts on this forum. Some of the analytical stuff is beyond me but a good read anyway for a balanced viewpoint. The emotions of contributors are just as important, because as much as the head screams "SELL", the heart and emotional attachment is always there countering with "WELL MAYBE NOT - YET". Just one of those Maybe Not Yet's has to be a big winner and it can completely outweigh all the "Sell Too Early's". I'm a firm believer that there is at least one multi-bagger out there for everyone, whether you find it by good luck or design is irrelevant.

Keep up the good work Ted, your contribution was perfectly balanced and demonstrated most of what all of us go through in our stock selections and 'maintenance' decisions

[RupertBear]

Great post Ted2. And yes, you don't need to have many thousands of posts to get your very good message across.

I am in the same very fortunate position as you, only my winner was XRO, which I bought for an average of 92c in 2007 and still hold a sizeable $$ holding in to this day in spite of many share price fluctuations, heart palpitations, pressure from 'her indoors' (a Chartered Accountant no less) to sell, and every other emotion you listed. And my new, soon to be built house is going to be fabulous ! Your point about letting winners run is spot on, although I did need some reassuring words in a phone call to Rod Drury to hang in there when the SP dropped from $45 to $12 a few years ago when XRO was over 90% of my portfolio. I made the situation worse by even buying more at about A$22 on the way back up ! Eventually the over-weighting got too high and I sold a few off to diversify and reap a little dividend income. All those stocks except CVT are in the black right now, including sizeable holdings in PPH and HLG. So if you believe in a stock, let it run. As a financial accountant type person XRO (to me) was a no-brainer. I believe ATM is also a no-brainer and liken this dip to the occasional one experienced by XRO over recent years - heck - they even went to $135 and down to $126 in a day this week - but today back to $134. It's a roller-coaster. Each to their own, and do what you have to do. If you can tolerate the lumpy bits then go for it and you may be handsomely rewarded.

So I reiterate the point I have made recently that it is not for posters to criticise others investing strategies. If I had listened to them over the last 13 years I would have sold out of XRO at $5 and be kicking myself black and blue every living day since. Do what YOU believe in and don't be swayed by others. Ultimately you only have yourself to answer to.

I am definitely one in the investor camp. The short term trading and day trading does not interest me. It consumes a lot of time and analysis, self flagellation and questioning when things go awry. The XRO experience has taught me that there is more than one way to skin a cat (apologies to fellow cat lovers out there for the analogy), and one's time can be spent profitably elsewhere while your winner is running on without needing to be watched 24/7

I have found it incredibly valuable reading and following the constructive and positive posts on this forum. Some of the analytical stuff is beyond me but a good read anyway for a balanced viewpoint. The emotions of contributors are just as important, because as much as the head screams "SELL", the heart and emotional attachment is always there countering with "WELL MAYBE NOT - YET". Just one of those Maybe Not Yet's has to be a big winner and it can completely outweigh all the "Sell Too Early's". I'm a firm believer that there is at least one multi-bagger out there for everyone, whether you find it by good luck or design is irrelevant.

Keep up the good work Ted, your contribution was perfectly balanced and demonstrated most of what all of us go through in our stock selections and 'maintenance' decisions

Good post Motley Crew and well done on your success with XRO :)

[xp04]

Apparently I am not allowed to have an opinion on this...So I get another negative rep from the Beagle :t_down:

Apparently, you are not the only one. l follow this forum for quite some time, but have no desire to be involved mainly because of people like Beagle. I'm quite active on HC though

[LEMON]

Come on guys, move on!

[alokdhir]

Come on guys, move on!


U see his post in KFL thread about ATM people then U will know what xp is saying is how true !!