ATM - A2 Milk Corporation Limited

[winner69]

If Blackrock could buy 16x times what Kingfish sold , then I am confident to top up mine too .

Been buying and selling for years ....even the last notice cover trades over 2 years

Did you go through the detailed trades - what's tipped them over the threshhold to file a SSH were a lot of 'collateral transfers' ....not buys ....wonder what 'collateral transfers' are?

[777]

Looks like Kingfish have been selling quite a few A2 over the past few weeks

Gone from 13.6% of fund to 11% - must have sold about 1/2 mill shares

ATM price decrease and increases in prices in other holdings would explain a lot of the change.

[HKG2301]

Been buying and selling for years ....even the last notice cover trades over 2 years

Did you go through the detailed trades - what's tipped them over the threshhold to file a SSH were a lot of 'collateral transfers' ....not buys ....wonder what 'collateral transfers' are?

>>Collateral Transfer Pricing (CTP) is the mechanism by which an internal market for assets is created within an institution.<<

They basically make their own market. If they have some clients selling and others buying, they act as the middle man. And, I'm guessing, pocket the (saved) brokerage fees in the process.

[winner69]

ATM price decrease and increases in prices in other holdings would explain a lot of the change.

If you estimate the absolute numbers have to be done about 500,000 shares

[Waltzing]

Dark pools i think they used to call them. A huge amount of internal transfers were done in the previous decades.

ATM is holding up well.

We had bonds offered from Hong Kong holdings off market but we did not touch them... The chickens coming home to roast.

You would taken out on a harbour cruise on champs and prawns... Our Kanga friends were right into it... Those were the days...

[kiora]

ATM price decrease and increases in prices in other holdings would explain a lot of the change.

But you missed who was buying
Blackrock accumulated 6m shares. Who is smarter?
https://stocknessmonster.com/announcements/atm.nzx-364888/

[777]

But you missed who was buying
Blackrock accumulated 6m shares. Who is smarter?
https://stocknessmonster.com/announcements/atm.nzx-364888/

Where does it say they got any of those shares from KFL?

[kiora]

Where does it say they got any of those shares from KFL?

Who says what?
What it indicates is that Blackrock was buying more shares than Kingfish was selling

[Panda-NZ-]

In the US market it will be interesting to see if there's a new baby boom from the covid lockdown.

Maybe helped along by the country's anti-abortion and contraception views.

[Baa_Baa]

In the US market it will be interesting to see if there's a new baby boom from the covid lockdown.

Maybe helped along by the country's anti-abortion and contraception views.

How would that affect ATM?

[Panda-NZ-]

Interestingly a majority of births are non-european populations which means lactose intolerance rates may increase in the US.

[BlackPeter]

In the US market it will be interesting to see if there's a new baby boom from the covid lockdown.

Maybe helped along by the country's anti-abortion and contraception views.

True, however the baby boom will be moderated by the reign of Covid and the outbreak of significant gun violence due to ridiculous gun laws and the biggest mental health crisis the land has ever seen.

https://www.apa.org/news/press/releases/2020/10/stress-mental-health-crisis
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/meet-the-press/blog/meet-press-blog-latest-news-analysis-data-driving-political-discussion-n988541/ncrd1223551

But who knows, maybe A2 milk can heal trigger happy and paranoid Americans ....? This would be a selling point ...

[Gunner]

True, however the baby boom will be moderated by the reign of Covid and the outbreak of significant gun violence due to ridiculous gun laws and the biggest mental health crisis the land has ever seen.

https://www.apa.org/news/press/releases/2020/10/stress-mental-health-crisis
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/meet-the-press/blog/meet-press-blog-latest-news-analysis-data-driving-political-discussion-n988541/ncrd1223551

But who knows, maybe A2 milk can heal trigger happy and paranoid Americans ....? This would be a selling point ...

The human race is resilient and so is America. Not concerned.

[777]

Who says what?
What it indicates is that Blackrock was buying more shares than Kingfish was selling

I don't believe KFL are selling at all. The fund has got bigger due to price increases in FPH SUM MFT and others while ATM price has decreased to end up with a lower % of Fund. This what I replied to winners post. He obviously thinks otherwise which is fine.

[kiora]

I was more interested in what BR was doing than what KF was doing
Which one will move the SP more in the end?
"For this disclosure,—
(a) total number held in class: 46,398,814
(b) total in class: 742,606,937
(c) total percentage held in class: 6.248%
For last disclosure,—
(a) total number held in class: 38,298,101
(b) total in class: 734,797,297
(c) total percentage held in class: 5.212%"
https://stocknessmonster.com/announcements/atm.nzx-364888/

[tomm]

I was more interested in what BR was doing than what KF was doing
Which one will move the SP more in the end?
"For this disclosure,—
(a) total number held in class: 46,398,814
(b) total in class: 742,606,937
(c) total percentage held in class: 6.248%
For last disclosure,—
(a) total number held in class: 38,298,101
(b) total in class: 734,797,297
(c) total percentage held in class: 5.212%"
https://stocknessmonster.com/announcements/atm.nzx-364888/
Insto's are shaking the tree and harvest the weaks .

[tomm]

Goldman Sachs has a current price target of $18.15 but is a net seller of some $20 million value of shares. So GS or their clients have disregarded fundamentals and on the back of some ordinary news out of a2m has attacked the mainly retail base of a2m to make a quick buck"

Goldman Sachs is the market maker/professional money. They're running massive portfolios and get their calls right majority of the time

[HKG2301]

Goldman Sachs has a current price target of $18.15 but is a net seller of some $20 million value of shares. So GS or their clients have disregarded fundamentals and on the back of some ordinary news out of a2m has attacked the mainly retail base of a2m to make a quick buck"

Goldman Sachs is the market maker/professional money. They're running massive portfolios and get their calls right majority of the time

Not sure where you're taking this?

You note that GS research has a target of $18.15 but their clients have been net sellers recently.

And your point is...?

[Balance]

https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/australian-coal-blocked-indefinitely-by-beijing-20201214-p56ne7.html

China suspends Australian coal imports indefinitely.

Things getting from bad to worse.

[dobby41]

https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/australian-coal-blocked-indefinitely-by-beijing-20201214-p56ne7.html

China suspends Australian coal imports indefinitely.

Things getting from bad to worse.

Not brilliant for China either as alternative coal sources are costing them big time.

[Balance]

Not brilliant for China either as alternative coal sources are costing them big time.

Unfortunately, both sides are paying the price but who is going to suffer more?

Interesting to note that Indonesia is happy to price its coal and receive payment in RMB. World is changing.

[winner69]

For what’s it worth Kingfish have reduced their holding

fol
a2 Milk (+1%) maintained its first half 2021 and full year 2021 guidance at its AGM. During the Singles Day festival, a2 grew volumes +24% year on year which was in line with expectations. Management have pointed to "green shoots" of a recovery in the daigou sales channel, however we have reduced our position size as the recovery in the daigou channel is developing slower than we had anticipated.

[777]

For what’s it worth Kingfish have reduced their holding

fol
a2 Milk (+1%) maintained its first half 2021 and full year 2021 guidance at its AGM. During the Singles Day festival, a2 grew volumes +24% year on year which was in line with expectations. Management have pointed to "green shoots" of a recovery in the daigou sales channel, however we have reduced our position size as the recovery in the daigou channel is developing slower than we had anticipated.

You were right winner. Let's just hope they reduced at a price closer to $20 than $14 though.

[BlackPeter]

https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/australian-coal-blocked-indefinitely-by-beijing-20201214-p56ne7.html

China suspends Australian coal imports indefinitely.

Things getting from bad to worse.

Interesting, but what is the relevance for ATM? ATM does neither produce coal nor is it an Australian company.

I guess the only connection I could see (and this is a long shot) is that thanks to the Chinese embargo of Australian coal Synlait might be able to get cheaper coal for drying their A2 milk powder ...

Maybe you should put this discussion on some more relevant thread ...

[winner69]

You were right winner. Let's just hope they reduced at a price closer to $20 than $14 though.

No ...been reducing recently so mostly around current prices I’d say

[Balance]

Interesting, but what is the relevance for ATM? ATM does neither produce coal nor is it an Australian company.

I guess the only connection I could see (and this is a long shot) is that thanks to the Chinese embargo of Australian coal Synlait might be able to get cheaper coal for drying their A2 milk powder ...

Maybe you should put this discussion on some more relevant thread ...

Totally relevant to ATM.

Cannot be bothered repeating the discussions going on now for weeks on how China is imposing trade sections on Australia and dairy could be next.

[dreamcatcher]

All I can say is the World is watching and probably start reducing their dependence on China ........... lesson "never put your eggs in one basket"

[dreamcatcher]

Totally relevant to ATM.

Cannot be bothered repeating the discussions going on now for weeks on how China is imposing trade sections on Australia and dairy could be next.

Imagine all IF made and shipped from NZ as is Danone and few others but would hurt Bellamy in Aus

[longy]

All I can say is the World is watching and probably start reducing their dependence on China ........... lesson "never put your eggs in one basket"

It is already happening. The faster A2 spreads its wings to other nations the better. China is using its weight and pushing OZ around.... It is more about issuing a warning shot to other countries to stay out of their domestic affairs I feel.

[Balance]

Imagine all IF made and shipped from NZ as is Danone and few others but would hurt Bellamy in Aus

And end of substantial A2M daigou trade from Oz to China.

That is why the market is nervous as hell.

[dreamcatcher]

And end of substantial A2M daigou trade from Oz to China.

That is why the market is nervous as hell.

Would HURT and certainly piss their own Chinese student daigou population living in Aus but would not affect Australia except loss of freight which is probably carried by Chinese airlines as its NZ dairy ...........just shipped from Aus.

Chinese mothers would be upset also which many now buy from NZ's bonded stores because of shortage.

[tomm]

And end of substantial A2M daigou trade from Oz to China.

That is why the market is nervous as hell.
Balance is short A2M ?

[bull....]

It is already happening. The faster A2 spreads its wings to other nations the better. China is using its weight and pushing OZ around.... It is more about issuing a warning shot to other countries to stay out of their domestic affairs I feel.

no they trying to make aus capitulate to china control and the trade stoush actually started many many years ago when china tried to take control of the iron ore trade with the rebutted takeover of rio's iron ore mines in aus. if it had succeeded china would have controled the market , aus booted them out and they never forgave them

[Balance]

Would HURT and certainly piss their own Chinese student daigou population living in Aus but would not affect Australia except loss of freight which is probably carried by Chinese airlines as its NZ dairy ...........just shipped from Aus.

Chinese mothers would be upset also which many now buy from NZ's bonded stores because of shortage.

Eh - Australia is a substantial supplier of dairy products to China (including A2M IF via daigou) and you are saying it will not hurt Australia if China bans Oz dairy products?

[dreamcatcher]

no they trying to make aus capitulate to china control and the trade stoush actually started many many years ago when china tried to take control of the iron ore trade with the rebutted takeover of rio's iron ore mines in aus. if it had succeeded china would have controled the market , aus booted them out and they never forgave them

Interesting bull I didn't know that.

China calls America a bully wonder what China calls CHINA

[Balance]

Balance is short A2M ?

Shorting ATM is for the short sighted - not for me.

[dreamcatcher]

Eh - Australia is a substantial supplier of dairy products to China (including A2M IF via daigou) and you are saying it will not hurt Australia if China bans Oz dairy products?

a2 made in NZ just shipped from AUS. Bubs small player but buying factory in China........ hurt Chinese owned Bellamy haven't looked at numbers

Suppose IF could become even more expensive certainly be unpopular with Chinese mothers ......

[dreamcatcher]

Just checked numbers Aus/China dairy 1-Billion

[Balance]

a2 made in NZ just shipped from AUS. Bubs small player but buying factory in China........ hurt Chinese owned Bellamy haven't looked at numbers

Suppose IF could become even more expensive certainly be unpopular with Chinese mothers ......

Plenty of other A2 IF available now - ever heard of S-26 (Produced in Singapore) & Karicare for eg?

Friend was referred to this by his doctor in Auckland for his 4 month old son recently - it's $10 a can cheaper than A2M.

Point is that the market is nervous and all I am doing is highlighting how some of the holders here seem blissfully unaware of why the market is nervous from $16.50 down.

Does not mean the market is right but I certainly will want to be aware of all pertinent matters out there affecting sentiment to time one's investment in any company!

[BlackPeter]

Interesting bull I didn't know that.

China calls America a bully wonder what China calls CHINA


We should not forget that China got pushed around and humiliated by the Western nations (well, with support of Japan) for at least the last 150 years or so.

Can't really blame them for learning from our outstanding example, can we?

[Beagle]

For what’s it worth Kingfish have reduced their holding

fol
a2 Milk (+1%) maintained its first half 2021 and full year 2021 guidance at its AGM. During the Singles Day festival, a2 grew volumes +24% year on year which was in line with expectations. Management have pointed to "green shoots" of a recovery in the daigou sales channel, however we have reduced our position size as the recovery in the daigou channel is developing slower than we had anticipated.

I think its well worth noting as they're smart operators who have consistently outperformed the market after fees and taxes over the years, proof that you can beat the market with a well diversified portfolio, (e.g. outperformed the NZX50 by 10.7% after fees and taxes in the last year). I hope they reduce further and take on board some new positions in "growth at a reasonable price" stocks. Disc: Significant stake in Kingfish Warrants KFLWF that I intend to exercise on 12/03/21.

[Balance]

We should not forget that China got pushed around and humiliated by the Western nations (well, with support of Japan) for at least the last 150 years or so.

Can't really blame them for learning from our outstanding example, can we?

Australia has bullied NZ for decades - think Air NZ/Ansett and you get the picture immediately.

No point defending Australia's behavior - a small bully meets a bigger bully, and squeals like a bully!

[BlackPeter]

Interesting bull I didn't know that.

China calls America a bully wonder what China calls CHINA


We should not forget that China got pushed around and humiliated by the Western nations (well, with support of Japan) for at least the last 180 years or so.

Can't really blame them for learning from our outstanding example, can we?

[dreamcatcher]

If you allow a bully to bully he will continue to be a bully............what must one do ?

[Balance]

If you allow a bully to bully he will continue to be a bully............what must one do ?

Ask the Fornicator in the White House.

Or ask the French who bullied NZ into releasing the Rainbow Warrior bombers.

Or maybe, ask Trevor Mallard and Cynical Cindy.

[bull....]

China bans Australian coal as trade war worsens
The Morrison government was urgently seeking answers from China on Monday night after reports Beijing had formally banned $14 billion of Australian coal exports

https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/china-bans-australian-coal-as-trade-war-worsens-20201214-p56nfz

[dreamcatcher]

Back on a2 - index update thanks to GW

S&P/NZX 50 Portfolio Index
ATM 3.45% 5.03% +1.59%

[LEMON]

https://www.raskmedia.com.au/2020/12/14/is-the-a2-milk-asxa2m-share-price-a-trap-or-an-opportunity/

Anyone know anything about ASX - Rask Media?

[dreamcatcher]

https://www.raskmedia.com.au/2020/12/14/is-the-a2-milk-asxa2m-share-price-a-trap-or-an-opportunity/

Anyone know anything about ASX - Rask Media?

Thanks for raskmedia.com.au never heard of them but reading the PPH & Z1p write up with interest

[tomm]

All the ATM shorters in this forum are getting nervous .

[dreamcatcher]

All the ATM shorters in this forum are getting nervous .

With an extra 1.59% for S&P/NZ50 gravy pot is slowly but surely shrinking wonder if 90% institutional holdings reached yet ??

Oh dear, oh dear

[tomm]

With an extra 1.59% for S&P/NZ50 gravy pot is slowly but surely shrinking wonder if 90% institutional holdings reached yet ??

Oh dear, oh dear
As long as the shorters keep on selling , insto's will just keep buying :)) , and we shall see what is going to happen at the end of the tunnel ;)

[alokdhir]

I think its well worth noting as they're smart operators who have consistently outperformed the market after fees and taxes over the years, proof that you can beat the market with a well diversified portfolio, (e.g. outperformed the NZX50 by 10.7% after fees and taxes in the last year). I hope they reduce further and take on board some new positions in "growth at a reasonable price" stocks. Disc: Significant stake in Kingfish Warrants KFLWF that I intend to exercise on 12/03/21.

Reducing stake by 1% ie around 500,000 shares , which is just reducing what they added to stake recently ( 1.2 million as per winner's calculations ) does not signify too much bearishness at the moment ...maybe they think they can better utilise these $ 7 million . Its still in top 5 holdings at 11.4 % of increased fund size of around 475mil . But they did mention return to normal will take longer then expected which can mean problem for second half optimistic targets of 1.1 billion revenue !!

[alokdhir]

Back on a2 - index update thanks to GW

S&P/NZX 50 Portfolio Index
ATM 3.45% 5.03% +1.59%

When will this update take effect ? Its for portfolio index only not main S&P NZX 50 index ...as maybe due to price drop adjustment ?

[Ggcc]

If you allow a bully to bully he will continue to be a bully............what must one do ?
America always was and still is the biggest bully in the world “always for what was supposed to be the right reason”.
Since the Chinese are destined to have the biggest economy in the world, they are starting to flex their strength. Starting with Australia a firm ally of the US. It will only get worse once they take over as the largest economy which could be in 2024 apparently.
We all know what bullies don’t like and that is a bigger bully

[tomm]

America always was and still is the biggest bully in the world “always for what was supposed to be the right reason”.
Since the Chinese are destined to have the biggest economy in the world, they are starting to flex their strength. Starting with Australia a firm ally of the US. It will only get worse once they take over as the largest economy which could be in 2024 apparently.
We all know what bullies don’t like and that is a bigger bully
There is a rythm ... like this below :
Look Like the shorters are getting worry from now :t_up:
Becareful or you may loose your house :confused:

[dreamcatcher]

When will this update take effect ? Its for portfolio index only not main S&P NZX 50 index ...as maybe due to price drop adjustment ?

Believe its end of month

[bull....]

There is a rythm ... like this below :
Look Like the shorters are getting worry from now :t_up:
Becareful or you may loose your house :confused:

nah im quite happy , you might not be when china releases a3 from there joint ventures with a2

[tomm]

nah im quite happy , you might not be when china releases a3 from there joint ventures with a2
Untill then the Sp is keep on rising :t_up:

[winner69]

US has huge potential for A2 -- just starting there

[tomm]

US has huge potential for A2 -- just starting there
They got 900% increased in the US from last time and keep on....

[Baa_Baa]

They got 900% increased in the US from last time and keep on....

BS. Do we need to fact check everything you say?

12146

[LEMON]

https://switzer.com.au/the-experts/switzer-tv/have-the-beijing-bad-boys-turned-treasury-wine-estates-and-a2-milk-into-screaming-buys/

10.53 minutes & 34.00

All is interesting since lots of the the topics follow on from remarks on the forum.

Also nice to hear what some Aussies think rather than us guessing.

The lady at 34.00 makes some really solid points on A2

[LEMON]

https://stockhead.com.au/primers/primers-infant-formula-stocks-asx-guide-2/

November 26th
Apologise if already posted.
I like how everyone is saying the trade war is not impacting greatly with A2 but more just the situation with Covid-19 and the daigou channel disruption with covid and Hong Kong

[tomm]

The shorters are getting nervous while the SP is climbing higher and higher :t_up:

[Blue Skies]

They got 900% increased in the US from last time and keep on....


tomm while us holders are ever optomistic, you've got to be more careful posting incorrect info, & extreme ramping like this, it can have consequences for the unwary.

Despite the actual increase being around 91% to $66M they made around a $50M net EPITDA loss.

[Balance]

https://www.news.com.au/finance/economy/australian-economy/chinas-latest-blast-at-australia/news-story/e480ac41403b11a2924d9639487ac70c

The rhetoric is ratcheting ever higher - matter of time before China imposes yet more trade sanctions?

If dairy gets hit, expect at least 20% off ATM’s sp?

[tomm]

https://www.news.com.au/finance/economy/australian-economy/chinas-latest-blast-at-australia/news-story/e480ac41403b11a2924d9639487ac70c

The rhetoric is ratcheting ever higher - matter of time before China imposes yet more trade sanctions?

If dairy gets hit, expect at least 20% off ATM’s sp?
I aint worry about about whether China is going to or Not going to, those are down ramping , the fact is the relationship within China and NZ is strongth and growing. NZ always keep neutral and very clever on dealing with China.
I do thing base on fact! therefor the more shorter keep selling doesn't matter how the insto's will keep buying at the low price and we will see this ATM company will thrive as usuall and boom!
But thank to shorters I can acquired at this ridiculous level of SP for ATM. Look at the shorters on Tesla , learn from it.

[alokdhir]

https://www.news.com.au/finance/economy/australian-economy/chinas-latest-blast-at-australia/news-story/e480ac41403b11a2924d9639487ac70c

The rhetoric is ratcheting ever higher - matter of time before China imposes yet more trade sanctions?

If dairy gets hit, expect at least 20% off ATM’s sp?

Here you also assuming that ATM is a Aussy company ? Why dairy sanctions on Aussy products will reduce SP of ATM ? I think it shud boost it as less competition for ATM as a NZ company .

Direct ATM sales from NZ should get a boost IMHO

[Gregnz]

https://www.news.com.au/finance/economy/australian-economy/chinas-latest-blast-at-australia/news-story/e480ac41403b11a2924d9639487ac70c

The rhetoric is ratcheting ever higher - matter of time before China imposes yet more trade sanctions?

If dairy gets hit, expect at least 20% off ATM’s sp?

Personally, I think the share price already reflects caution in the market around potential tariffs and sanctions on dairy by China. Albeit A2 is a NZ company and unlikely to be highly impacted. So I guess you could also pose the possibility, no China sanctions on Australian dairy = easy 20% gain to the A2 SP?

[Ruby]

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/fa...diplomatic-unrest-between-australia-and-china (https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/farming/123721298/pm-eases-farmers-nerves-over-diplomatic-unrest-between-australia-and-china)

PM eases farmers' nerves over diplomatic unrest between Australia and China

[Balance]

Personally, I think the share price already reflects caution in the market around potential tariffs and sanctions on dairy by China. Albeit A2 is a NZ company and unlikely to be highly impacted. So I guess you could also pose the possibility, no China sanctions on Australian dairy = easy 20% gain to the A2 SP?

I have posted similar to your scenario before. No disagreement with me.

[winner69]

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/fa...diplomatic-unrest-between-australia-and-china (https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/farming/123721298/pm-eases-farmers-nerves-over-diplomatic-unrest-between-australia-and-china)

PM eases farmers' nerves over diplomatic unrest between Australia and China

My mum used to give me a hug and cuddles and say ‘son, cheer up, bad things won’t happen. Don’t fret so much, it’ll all be OK’

[LEMON]

Australia's Switzer report from the video I posted yesterday comments.


"The two I like are Treasury Wine Estates ((TWE)) and a2 Milk ((A2M)). The reason why I’ve singled both these operators out is because they’re both quality companies. A2M is not a victim of a trade ban and is really a Kiwi company listed on our stock market. There could be a bit of Chinese pushback on the company that has affected Bubs Australia but there are also issues around no Chinese tourists, whose purchases here were cream on the company’s cake"

[tomm]

I aint worry about about whether China is going to or Not going to, that is pure speculations and down ramping , the fact is the relationship within China and NZ is strongth and growing. NZ always keep neutral and very clever on dealing with China.
I do thing base on fact! therefor the more shorter keep selling doesn't matter how the insto's will keep buying at the low price and we will see this ATM company will thrive as usuall and boom!
But thank to shorters I can acquired at this ridiculous level of SP for ATM. Look at the shorters on Tesla , learn from it.

[LEMON]

I aint worry about about whether China is going to or Not going to, that is pure speculations and down ramping , the fact is the relationship within China and NZ is strongth and growing. NZ always keep neutral and very clever on dealing with China.
I do thing base on fact! therefor the more shorter keep selling doesn't matter how the insto's will keep buying at the low price and we will see this ATM company will thrive as usuall and boom!
But thank to shorters I can acquired at this ridiculous level of SP for ATM. Look at the shorters on Tesla , learn from it.

You are speculating? We can only hope A2M is managing to deal with Covid and this trade war which will very likely be disrupting the sales and possibly even production.
You canbot say the SP will rise or fall? That's speculation not fact.
Bring research and advice to the table!
Not speculations and ego

[Gregnz]

I aint worry about about whether China is going to or Not going to, that is pure speculations and down ramping , the fact is the relationship within China and NZ is strongth and growing. NZ always keep neutral and very clever on dealing with China.
I do thing base on fact! therefor the more shorter keep selling doesn't matter how the insto's will keep buying at the low price and we will see this ATM company will thrive as usuall and boom!
But thank to shorters I can acquired at this ridiculous level of SP for ATM. Look at the shorters on Tesla , learn from it.

Why do you keep posting the same thing?

[LEMON]

You can even predict a Sp movement if you wish, but you need to make it clear you're predicting a loss or a rise and at least state a reason for it.

You can't just say XXX grew %%%, even better buy now before you lose out, quick now!! It's about to go high high high.

[Hello123]

Why do you keep posting the same thing?

Because positive thoughts...lol.

[tomm]

You are speculating? We can only hope A2M is managing to deal with Covid and this trade war which will very likely be disrupting the sales and possibly even production.
You canbot say the SP will rise or fall? That's speculation not fact.
Bring research and advice to the table!
Not speculations and ego
You post your own speculation about the relationship between China and NZ , bring facts to the table, will you ! I post the fact : China called NZ to celebrate the relationship about trading and resign the Trade Agreement. Digou chanel 's effective is just temporary and ATM put the fact that it will even actually meet the EBITDA , what are your facts except speculations and down ramping?

[alokdhir]

Why ATM HALTED at NZX ???

What news coming ?

[Sideshow Bob]

Why ATM HALTED at NZX ???

What news coming ?

No announcement. Not trading atm.....(see what I did there?)

[mondograss]

Wait until the Ann comes out on the ASX, they usually append the letter from the company saying why they want the halt.

[BigBob]

No announcement. Not trading atm.....(see what I did there?)

To: Market Participants
From: NZX Product Operations
Date: Thursday, 17 December 2020
Subject: The a2 Milk Company Limited (“ATM”) – Trading Halt of Securities

Message:

NZ RegCo (“RegCo”) advises that, at the request of the company, it has placed a trading halt on The a2 Milk Company Limited (“ATM”) ordinary shares. The trading halt was placed pre-market open.

The trading halt has been put in place pending the release of an announcement to be made by the company.

The halt will remain in place until the earlier of:

1) the release of an announcement by ATM

2) market open Monday, 21 December 2020

Please contact NZX Product Operations on +64 4 496 2853 or productoperations@nzx.com with any queries.

ENDS

[777]

NZ RegCo ("RegCo") advises that, at the request of the company, it has placed
a trading halt on The a2 Milk Company Limited ("ATM") ordinary shares. The
trading halt was placed pre-market open.

The trading halt has been put in place pending the release of an announcement
to be made by the company.

The halt will remain in place until the earlier of:

1) the release of an announcement by ATM

2) market open Monday, 21 December 2020

[Sideshow Bob]

Here it is.....

The a2 Milk Company Limited (“ATM”) – Trading Halt - NZX, New Zealand’s Exchange (https://www.nzx.com/announcements/365192)

Might not be trading for the rest of the week....

[silu]

You wouldn't halt for a downgrade right? Not that I'm nervous or anything.

[LEMON]

You post your own speculation about the relationship between China and NZ , bring facts to the table, will you ! I post the fact : China called NZ to celebrate the relationship about trading and resign the Trade Agreement. Digou chanel 's effective is just temporary and ATM put the fact that it will even actually meet the EBITDA , what are your facts except speculations and down ramping?

Now tomm pick up your dummy.

First of all you cried about speculation not me.
Secondly, I want A2's SP to go up so I ain't a "down ramper" considering I'm down.
Thirdly my remarks on China vs AU is only what's has been posted and I have sourced and shared myself via News reports and articles plus books on the relationship with China and the future of world geopolitics and economies.

I won't get in to it any further. Some of your posts are important and appreciated.
Enjoy your day Tomm

[Ggcc]

I smell a takeover offer........

[Gregnz]

You wouldn't halt for a downgrade right? Not that I'm nervous or anything.

No, any previous guidance updates haven’t required a trading halt. Only news I’m expecting is the Mataura valley acquisition but not sure that would require a halt either. Perhaps a takeover bid from someone, it’s been the talk of the town over on the Australian investor forums about being a prime target while the share price is where it currently is. Guess time will tell...

[LEMON]

Surely must be something positive

[alokdhir]

You wouldn't halt for a downgrade right? Not that I'm nervous or anything.

Agree with that ...Trading updates are price sensitive but no Halt required ? It can be something more ...cant be equity raising ...as they have lots of cash .

Maybe a new acquisition

[dreamcatcher]

Double Top Double Bottom in play with breakout gap around 12 ish - 13 ish end year result good SP will fly if not gap filled

Simple NO ??

[BlackPeter]

I smell a takeover offer........

You might be right. Certainly unlikely to be a CR ...

Current market cap $10.5b; Add some takeover bonus ... say $15b? Still - would require reasonable deep pockets. Danone? Some other food producer?

Just wondering whether the recent BlackRock SSH has anything to do with this story?

[allfromacell]

I hope for Couts its a takeover

A2 from memory hasn't gone into a halt before, they're usually onto it with market updates so a takeover makes sense especially with the suppressed SP

[Pricey]

I hope the people left in at these levels are in it for the long haul. I know it would need to be a significant premium to the current levels for me to sell.

[sb9]

ASX release generally has bit more info re request for trading halt..let's wait for that to come out

[Ggcc]

You might be right. Certainly unlikely to be a CR ...

Current market cap $10.5b; Add some takeover bonus ... say $15b? Still - would require reasonable deep pockets. Danone? Some other food producer?

Just wondering whether the recent BlackRock SSH has anything to do with this story?

Lets hope for Couta it will be to bring that price up and bring him back to the forum.

[Hello123]

Could this be negative in any way?

[Ggcc]

Could this be negative in any way?
Yes it could. Maybe stock being held up in China by Australia/China battle

[Gunner]

Yes it could. Maybe stock being held up in China by Australia/China battle

That wouldnt require a trading halt. My crystal ball says its something positive.

[Hello123]

Yes it could. Maybe stock being held up in China by Australia/China battle

Well its nothing personal but I hope it is I bought in at 13.85 last week and was looking to make a portfolio arrangement with a2m being a large amount this week, so I personally do not want to see a great news just yet!

[tango]

Maybe they have received a takeover offer or are planning to take over another company.

It's something BIG!

[Waltzing]

very bad if its a big take over and a delisting.. NZX needs every company like this it can get.. Xero was a big loss and just shows what happens.

[tango]

I hope the people left in at these levels are in it for the long haul. I know it would need to be a significant premium to the current levels for me to sell.

Same
A2 must need time to evaluate the offer
This is my top pick

OR second option, they are making an acquisition and offering shares in consideration and maybe want to halt because it's a large issue of shares???

[Mr Slothbear]

High likelyhood of a takeover offer.

my thoughts are a chinese player or Nestle.

highest odds are chinese firm IMO

i would not consider any offer lower than $24 nzd

[Getty]

It will be Big, and a takeover.
Not of ATM tho, BGA, Bega on ASX,
Grab them while they are cheap, compared to 5 yr graph.

[bull....]

hope its not a freedom foods

[dreamcatcher]

Trading Halt maybe till Monday.................how much news is there

New partnership for US IF entry or Takeover ..... my pick

[Mr Slothbear]

Same
A2 must need time to evaluate the offer
This is my top pick

OR second option, they are making an acquisition and offering shares in consideration and maybe want to halt because it's a large issue of shares???


ATM management will pay with cash but I doubt with equity at current A2 share price. GB is a value hound and very canny

[Cyclical]

Could this be negative in any way?

Would have to be a hell of a negative to bring on a trading halt wouldn't it, especially this soon after the AGM? But then reading Ggcc's response below, I guess that's a possibility, but again, it would have to be huge, right? It's gonna be interesting. Either I'll be happy I reduced my holding recently, or I'll be peeved!


Yes it could. Maybe stock being held up in China by Australia/China battle

[bull....]

trading halts for financial performance

The trading halt is requested pending a further announcement concerning its financialperformance -- this from freedom foods announcement , so most likely a takeover or a financial performance issue

[tango]

ATM management will pay with cash but I doubt with equity at current A2 share price. GB is a value hound and very canny

Yeah, I agree. It's a longshot

Far more likely A2 received a takeover offer and need to time to formulate a response
Share price is massively depressed. This is a prime time to make an offer

I toyed with selling down at the market highs and didn't. Coulda shoulda woulda
I would want $20+ to exit

[tango]

trading halts for financial performance

The trading halt is requested pending a further announcement concerning its financialperformance -- this from freedom foods announcement , so most likely a takeover or a financial performance issue

Where does it say that about the financial performance? I didn't see it in the announcement

Or are you speculating that there is a significant downgrade possible:?
https://announcements.nzx.com/detail/365192

[dreamcatcher]

ATM management will pay with cash but I doubt with equity at current A2 share price. GB is a value hound and very canny

If its an acquisition will be in the US for US market

[bull....]

Where does it say that about the financial performance? I didn't see it in the announcement

Or are you speculating that there is a significant downgrade possible:?
https://announcements.nzx.com/detail/365192

speculating , wait for the asx announcement much better than nzx ones

[ratkin]

The chart does not give much away, would have expected some leakage.

[Ggcc]

The chart does not give much away, would have expected some leakage.
On ASX someone is dumping shares..... Maybe the news is not good at all

[tango]

speculating , wait for the asx announcement much better than nzx ones

I have never cross checked the ASX announcements. I will keep an eye on that
Thanks for the tip

[Hello123]

On ASX someone is dumping shares..... Maybe the news is not good at all

This via market depth?

[Mr Slothbear]

A2 management have always been very good at keeping information close to their chest. They probably received a takeover offer yesterday afternoon or early this morning. Doubt anything has leaked

[Ggcc]

This via market depth?
Yes and until we hear the news it is only a guess. My quote was referring to a possible leakage quote from Ratkin.

[Hello123]

Yes and until we hear the news it is only a guess. My quote was referring to a possible leakage quote from Ratkin.

Hmm your right 557k shares being sold at 12.22 sitting there 40c below the next sell offer.

[Waltzing]

Wish all the Holders the very best .

DISC: we were waiting for all the silly china stuff to blow over before buying in again. Aus ministers were making waves about china needing to learn about how to trade with the world.

For all those people new to share investing, the number of times you will get hit like this with trading halts and take overs are good practise for your stomach....

Im sure this time its good news for your value holdings. We hope...

[Lego_Man]

Hmm your right 557k shares being sold at 12.22 sitting there 40c below the next sell offer.

Means nothing at this stage

[tango]

This via market depth?

My ASX market depth shows last night’s asks and bids at closing

[Davexl]

Freedom Foods look like they were considering divesting their losing cereal & snacks divisions and doing a capital raise. This leaves their dairy division primarily.

ATM takeover of FF Dairy ? FF do A2 Protein milk also...

[bull....]

its a futures adjustment day so all asx stocks will show funny quotes before the open

[Lego_Man]

ASX announcement says it's around guidance. Must be a shocker.

[Mr Slothbear]

For reference the last time trading was halted was for a capital raise in 2015. I went back and checked

needless to say the company has had huge changes over the past 5 years so one would think the need for a trading halt now must be quite an elephant.

[BigBob]

ASX announcement says it's around guidance. Must be a shocker.

Where do you see that...?

https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02323501-2A1270771?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a 39ff4

This says that it's "pending it releasing an announcement"...

Doh, yup - I should have read the whole thing...

[bull....]

ASX announcement says it's around guidance. Must be a shocker.

yes its around financial performance just as i feared , it will be carnage on monday ... sorry for holders

[Baa_Baa]

ASX announcement says it's around guidance. Must be a shocker.

Ouch, guidance revision. Damn shame NZX doesn't require the same level of disclosure that ASX does.

[silu]

Looks bad now :(

[Blue Skies]

Where do you see that...?

https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02323501-2A1270771?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a 39ff4

This says that it's "pending it releasing an announcement"...


Further down it says 'we have become aware of information which may require us to release an announcement to revise our previously issued guidance to the market.' Bugger!

[Gunner]

So whose this guy dumping their shares before the announcement? Insider trading?

[BigBob]

Further down it says 'we have become aware of information which may require us to release an announcement to revise our previously issued guidance to the market.' Bugger!

Yeah, thanks mate - read the whole thing now... not looking great, is it...

[bull....]

reminds me of the bellamys downgrades price fell 50%

[Ggcc]

reminds me of the bellamys downgrades price fell 50%
Yup followed by a takeover offer. I am holding through this, but not buying anymore. Feel for Couta as he has not diversified

[Beagle]

Readers of this thread will know that I have been saying for quite some time now that I have been very skeptical indeed about their ability to deliver on second half guidance. I received widespread aggression towards me as an independent observer with no position for calling it as I see it. I tried to warn people but because I got such a kicking by so many people my approach will be different going forward. People who take extremely large positions have to realise they only have themselves to blame if the custard hits the fan.

[silu]

I've always planned to hold this long-term anyway but I wouldn't like a sharp correction in my portfolio.

[trader_jackson]

instead of taking over freedom foods, maybe it is similar to freedom foods... ie they've suddenly realized there's a whole lot of 'accounting discrepancies'... not sure why a halt would be in place for an update around guidance unless it was majorly bad... Ironic as just a month ago at AGM I thought everything was all good...

[dreamcatcher]

Looks like news may not be ..........promising

[Getty]

Maybe they have just discovered another QEX style warehouse clearance...

[tango]

This looks like very bad news.

I will hold through it but I considered selling earlier this year and now... 20/20 hindsight. Should have unloaded at the high
Live and learn

[Blue Skies]

Hopefully (not a strategy ) this is a temp blip and next year there will be millions of extra babies as a consequence of 2020 Lockdown with a massive increase in demand for IF & A2 milk.

[gbogo]

Readers of this thread will know that I have been saying for quite some time now that I have been very skeptical indeed about their ability to deliver on second half guidance. I received widespread aggression towards me as an independent observer with no position for calling it as I see it. I tried to warn people but because I got such a kicking by so many people my approach will be different going forward. you did call it entirely. downgrades come in threes etc.

[TTongster]

Looks like it's a revised guidance. Oh noooo.

A2 Milk has called a trading halt ahead of a release relating to earnings guidance.

The dairy products group said: "We have become aware of information which may require us to release an announcement to revise our previously issued guidance to the market."

"We are requesting a trading halt to provide us with additional time to properly consider the current information and to consider new information as it becomes available, and inform the market."

[Hello123]

Well I'm still looking to get in so I guess this has happened at the right time for me haha!

[bull....]

Readers of this thread will know that I have been saying for quite some time now that I have been very skeptical indeed about their ability to deliver on second half guidance. I received widespread aggression towards me as an independent observer with no position for calling it as I see it. I tried to warn people but because I got such a kicking by so many people my approach will be different going forward.

yes beagle like you i tried to warn people long ago to much aggression

[Gregnz]

Very odd that info comes so soon after the AGM. There hasn't been sufficient time for anything to drastically change. I've read the ASX announcement, it does say revise previously issued guidance. I'm reading it as a negative, but is there any chance that it could be a guidance improvement?

[Filthy]

Very odd that info comes so soon after the AGM. There hasn't been sufficient time for anything to drastically change. I've read the ASX announcement, it does say revise previously issued guidance. I'm reading it as a negative, but is there any chance that it could be a guidance improvement?

possible but improbable

[Beagle]

Balance as usual is right, downgrades almost always comes in 3's.

[bull....]

Very odd that info comes so soon after the AGM. There hasn't been sufficient time for anything to drastically change. I've read the ASX announcement, it does say revise previously issued guidance. I'm reading it as a negative, but is there any chance that it could be a guidance improvement?

the announcement says they have come into information which requires 2 days to sort out , so it could be accounting issues like freedom foods or something else china trade tarrifs?

[Rawz]

A shame. Going to put this stock in the bottom draw and look at it in 2 years time

[silu]

My best guess is a major downgrade and perhaps discontinuation of the Daigou channel?

[Hello123]

Oh well looking to the future now taking into consideration that the guidance is worse and the SP drops to say 12$, when everything is behind us and the recovery begins I'm sure will see a good recovery.

[Mr Slothbear]

the announcement says they have come into information which requires 2 days to sort out , so it could be accounting issues like freedom foods or something else china trade tarrifs?


highly doubt its anything tariff related.

could be a china related accounting issue.

optics definitely look negative but I suppose with melbourne being out of lockdown they could be seeing a stronger rebound in daigou sales.

[Hello123]

My best guess is a major downgrade and perhaps discontinuation of the Daigou channel?

wow oh damn!

[silu]

wow oh damn!

It's nearly 30% of my portfolio so I'm bracing for the worst. But then I had heaps more and what I have left I planned to keep for 10y+.

[Gregnz]

Personally I think we are reading too much into this, me included. "We have become aware of information which 'may' require us to release an announcement to revise our previously issued guidance to the market".

"May" , that word to me suggests it's not a guarantee. Perhaps its news that they cant yet confirm, wonder if the China tariffs etc have finally hit NZ? But wouldn't that be in the media if it was happening?

[Blue Skies]

Probably a further continuation of this deteriorating situation reported in September as fresh Covid outbreaks caused more lockdowns in Victoria.

https://www.afr.com/companies/retail/a2-milk-cuts-guidance-as-daigou-market-collapses-20200928-p55zt1

On the plus side, in 12 to 18 months time, these problems should all be behind us and full steam ahead.
SP depends to some extent on how far ahead people are looking.

[Waltzing]

"accounting discrepancies"

was anything tagged in the auditors note?

surely this is a take over else why halt for 2 days plus a weekend.

Anyone have what they think is an accurate NTA or nearest call ?

Its certainly a marketing lesson and have done well considering the results of some other players.

A company from NZ taking on the world.. Fonterra certainly made a mess of it..

Not surprised as i remember meeting the then head of diary farming association as a young farmer in the central north island.. No training in financial farm economics that i could see at the time.

No comprehension of the layers of statistical reporting infrastructure required to protect diary investments to let farmers get there debt levels in check.

Now these same individuals at sit the top table of dairy farming representative organisations...

[tango]

Very odd that info comes so soon after the AGM. There hasn't been sufficient time for anything to drastically change. I've read the ASX announcement, it does say revise previously issued guidance. I'm reading it as a negative, but is there any chance that it could be a guidance improvement?

Would there be a halt for an upgrade?

Maybe...
A lawsuit?
Loss of a major customer?

[dobby41]

Well, that's certainly got people chattering.
Unfortunately no substance so we will have to wait and see.

[wagwan]

Well, that's certainly got people chattering.
Unfortunately no substance so we will have to wait and see.

Hit the nail on the head

[Cyclical]

Very odd that info comes so soon after the AGM. There hasn't been sufficient time for anything to drastically change.

Well it wouldn't be the first time would it...directors cashing in their shares at $20+ only a month before releasing bad news. If it's negative news this time that may have been apparent at about AGM time, there will be some pretty unhappy punters.

[Balance]

Whatever the announcement is, it will be very positive or very negative as that's what trading halts tend to be.

Holders will need their worry beads on the one hand and chill some good French champagne in the fridge with the other!

Time for

HOPE - it's going to be okay,

GREED - it's a takeover by the Chinese or merger,

FEAR - another profit downgrade or law suit over claims of A2 protein benefits in the US.

SML sp has dropped so some in the market are in fear?

[Beagle]

Well it wouldn't be the first time would it...directors cashing in their shares at $20+ only a month before releasing bad news. If it's negative news this time that may have been apparent at about AGM time, there will be some pretty unhappy punters.

A cynical person could easily be forgiven for thinking they've carefully stage managed the timing of the downgrades to escape prosecution for insider trading by the skin of the calcium coating on their A2M coated teeth.

[Biscuit]

Whatever the announcement is, it will be very positive or very negative as that's what trading halts tend to be.

Holders will need their worry beads on the one hand and chill some good French champagne in the fridge with the other!

Time for

HOPE - it's going to be okay,

GREED - it's a takeover by the Chinese or merger,

FEAR - another profit downgrade or law suit over claims of A2 protein benefits in the US.

SML sp has dropped so some in the market are in fear?

Only two rational emotions on here are "fear" and "gloat"

[Cyclical]

Personally I think we are reading too much into this, me included. "We have become aware of information which 'may' require us to release an announcement to revise our previously issued guidance to the market".

"May" , that word to me suggests it's not a guarantee. Perhaps its news that they cant yet confirm, wonder if the China tariffs etc have finally hit NZ? But wouldn't that be in the media if it was happening?

I wonder if another possible explanation for the "may" could be that they feel the current share price already caters for some expected negativity (it's ~50% from here to its recent high) and they are thinking, well, the market has already downgraded us... Yeah, but, nah, but perhaps the market hasn't quite factored in just how negative this is, hence the "may" or indecision about if they need to release this little bombshell.

For it to bring on a trading halt though, how bad must it be? How long does the marketing department need to put a positive spin on it? Don't they know that everyone else knows that bad news comes in threes haha and to just tell us already?

Ok, I really want to know what it is!

[tango]

A cynical person could easily be forgiven for thinking they've carefully stage managed the timing of the downgrades to escape prosecution for insider trading by the skin of the calcium coating on their A2M coated teeth.

Let's hope not.
I would expect some action by the shareholders if they have

Either way I just want to know what's happening

[jimdog31]

My educated guess would be their guidance didnt factor the dollar being on such a bull tear and it will result in a material downgrade.

[newtrader]

If this was a takeover or merger, wouldn't this announcement make reference to it? There is no reason to withhold the information once the trading halt is in place?

[Balance]

Balance as usual is right, downgrades almost always comes in 3's.

For ATM shareholders' sake, I hope sincerely (after their recent reaffirmation of profit forecast) it's not a downgrade.

If it is, sp will be back below $10.00. :scared:

[silu]

I once had to wait 3 days as a 19y old about a cancer prognosis = luckily negative
I once had to wait 7 days to find out if my wife makes it + she didn't

Waiting to find out whether I have less or more money than before is just noise.

[Beagle]

For ATM shareholders' sake, I hope sincerely (after their recent reaffirmation of profit forecast) it's not a downgrade.

If it is, sp will be back below $10.00. :scared:

We tried to warn them mate....many times.

[Gunner]

On ASX someone is dumping shares..... Maybe the news is not good at all

Abit suspicious if it's out of the ordinary

[ThaiJohn]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/a2-milk-goes-into-nzx-trading-halt-to-amend-earnings-guidance/QTLEVKPYXUG3SOYCPW7EHNQSLY/

[trader_jackson]

Not ideal I was nearly shouted out the room earlier for merely pointing out some facts... it seems the Aussies are not liking it - A2M down over 4% currently on the ASX.

All very mysterious... I remember being shouted out the room back in August on results day... share price back then was over $20... might be half of that when trading resumes.

[Leemsip]

My 2c is that it will be something which will require some detailed modelling inside the company and figuring out what a changing market looks like for margins etc:
- diagou channel being blocked
- china announcing it will look to diversify IF sourcing away from Oz / NZ

Normal market erosion of gross margin, or a strong dollar, wouldn't require such a long halt.

Other possibilities are:
- some sort of recall of product due to harmful XXX discovered
- sharetrader members too heavily invested and fate intervenes etc

[Gregnz]

My 2c is that it will be something which will require some detailed modelling inside the company and figuring out what a changing market looks like for margins etc:
- diagou channel being blocked
- china announcing it will look to diversify IF sourcing away from Oz / NZ

Normal market erosion of gross margin, or a strong dollar, wouldn't require such a long halt.

Other possibilities are:
- some sort of recall of product due to harmful XXX discovered
- sharetrader members too heavily invested and fate intervenes etc

A product recall would have obviously resulted in an announcement from Synlait, which hasn’t happened. As you know Synlait manufacture for A2

[dobby41]

We tried to warn them mate....many times.

How many times do you have to say 'I told you so' before it becomes harping and quite unseemly?

[Leemsip]

A product recall would have obviously resulted in an announcement from Synlait, which hasn’t happened. As you know Synlait manufacture for A2

Agree, good call.

[Gregnz]

How many times do you have to say 'I told you so' before it becomes harping and quite unseemly?

The same people who say “I told you so” are the same people who just disappear when the share price increases, because they can’t validate their arguments.

[Cyclical]

All very mysterious... I remember being shouted out the room back in August on results day... share price back then was over $20... might be half of that when trading resumes.

Be interesting won't it. Depending on the news and what the likely implications could mean for future sales, a sharp SP drop may represent good buying in what looks like a generally heady market.

[bull....]

shorters might be popping the champange on monday

[tango]

My educated guess would be their guidance didnt factor the dollar being on such a bull tear and it will result in a material downgrade.

Makes sense but a trading halt?

I confess I didn’t factor in the NZD USD exchange rate. I have USD that I want to bring back to New Zealand and it’s not making me happy. I brought back $20K at $1.52 but now it’s $1.41 which makes for a big loss on the remainder. I can only imagine the effect on a company the size of a2

[Leemsip]

If it is something China related we will have an interesting dilemma (also facing this with TWE on the asx).

Great company shut out of its major market for who knows how long. Much lower margins in other countries.

Hard to buy in these conditions until clarity is acheived.

[Leemsip]

Not going to be the exchange rate. Announcement says "we have become aware"

[Beagle]

All very mysterious... I remember being shouted out the room back in August on results day... share price back then was over $20... might be half of that when trading resumes.

This stock has a "cult" following. In effect its the "Tesla" of the NZX. You're not the only one that's been shouted out of the room I can assure you.
I came very close to leaving this forum because of the aggression and abuse I got in here for posting objective independent thoughts when I wasn't holding a long or short position.
There is no room in here for objective debate and those that made this thread that way will likely get their just "reward" on Monday.

[Gregnz]

Not going to be the exchange rate. Announcement says "we have become aware"

Or it could be a poorly written announcement. I’m very curious.

[McPussPuss]

Since when is appearing for a round of 'I told you so'' posts objective debate?


The 'just reward' line doesn't sound very Christian.

[Cyclical]

Guys, noob questions... When this puppy comes out of halt, I guess it would need to be at a time when both markets are open, no? Does there need to be some advance warning when it's about to happen? Like a premarket type period, or something like that? Cheers

[Hello123]

This stock has a "cult" following. In effect its the "Tesla" of the NZX. You're not the only one that's been shouted out of the room I can assure you.
I came very close to leaving this forum because of the aggression and abuse I got in here for posting objective independent thoughts when I wasn't holding a long or short position.
There is no room in here for objective debate and those that made this thread that way will likely get their just "reward" on Monday.

Beagle would you ever hold this stock?

[tomm]

Trading Halt until Monday 21/Dec.
INTERESTING ...

[Beagle]

Beagle would you ever hold this stock?

Never say never but its extremely rare that I buy a stock in a well established downtrend. I note that very basic technical analysis, (selling when it broke down through the 100 day MA) would have got people out at ~ $20. When a confirmed bottom is in the share price and a new uptrend has emerged (as evidenced most likely for me by a break up through the 100 day MA) I will have another look at the fundamentals.

At this stage the best case scenario I can foresee is for a meaningful eps decline in FY21 followed by a a much slower rate of growth going forward. I won't pay a PE in the mid - late 20's for very slow growth. I believe in owning GARP stocks. Growth at a reasonable price. The metrics on this stock would need a pretty dramatic reset for me to own this again.

The extent of the insider selling and the way the 2021 downgrade process has been apparently so very carefully crafted to avoid any realistic chance of any insider trading action being successful is something else that on the face of it raises some serious concerns, at least in my mind and makes me very wary about this one in the future.

[tomm]

Hmm your right 557k shares being sold at 12.22 sitting there 40c below the next sell offer.
Remember today is the day of option expires , so wouldn't be surprice if there is any big selling on the market.

[Hello123]

Trading Halt until Monday 21/Dec.
INTERESTING ...

Do you read the other comments?

[tango]

This stock has a "cult" following. In effect its the "Tesla" of the NZX. You're not the only one that's been shouted out of the room I can assure you.
I came very close to leaving this forum because of the aggression and abuse I got in here for posting objective independent thoughts when I wasn't holding a long or short position.
There is no room in here for objective debate and those that made this thread that way will likely get their just "reward" on Monday.

I’m not convinced about the cult following. At least, not for me personally. I bought a long time ago when it was around 40 cents and held long before it was a popular or trendy stock. Never really looked at it again. Effectively bottom drawer it.

A few months ago I started looking and questioned future growth and competitors but inertia set in before I finished Investigating. I didn’t even lurk in these threads for barking dogs! That would probably have been a good time to sell but I didn’t so I will await the results and go from there.

[Balance]

All the ATM shorters in this forum are getting nervous .

All the ATM shorters (59m shares as st 9 December) are getting ready for a very Merry Christmas?

[Dassets]

The shorters will be milking it for all they can!

[Mr Slothbear]

Theres nothing objective about vindictive trolling.

on another note
i don’t think this is exchange rate related as like others have said they could model that much faster. Perhaps changes to china brand health metrics they talked about?

[Balance]

The shorters will be milking it for all they can!

The trading halt certainly plays into their hands - attempt to create the FEAR & panic factor snd hope there will be a wholesale exit for the door when trading resumes.

Such are the ways of the world.

[ratkin]

If this is just an earnings downgrade then why halt till Monday?
The Synlait announcement sounds a little ominous, and it had fallen a decent amount, so it obviously not good news

[Balance]

If this is just an earnings downgrade then why halt till Monday?
The Synlait announcement sounds a little ominous, and it had fallen a decent amount, so it obviously not good news

Another QEX type situation?

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/362113

[tomm]

Guidance Recorrecting . I guess.

[Gregnz]

If this is just an earnings downgrade then why halt till Monday?
The Synlait announcement sounds a little ominous, and it had fallen a decent amount, so it obviously not good news

I don’t follow Synlait, but seems quite low volume for a sell off. Would appear just weak hands selling without any certainty as to the A2 announcement and what impact it could have, negative or positive.

[ratkin]

Guidance Recorrecting . I guess.

Synlait obviously know what it is about, and their price is down over 6% in Two days.

[BigBob]

Synlait obviously know what it is about, and their price is down over 6% in Two days.

Response to The a2 Milk Company trading halt
17/12/2020, 2:01 pm GENERAL

Synlait Milk Limited (Synlait) notes that The a2 Milk Company has entered into a trading halt having become aware of information which may require it to revise previously issued guidance to the market. The a2 Milk Company is a strategic customer of Synlait. Once an announcement is released by The a2 Milk Company, Synlait will assess this information, and the impact on its own company, and provide a further update to the market if necessary.

For more information about Synlait visit www.synlait.com or contact:
Hannah Lynch
Corporate Affairs Manager
P: +64 21 252 8990
E: hannah.lynch@synlait.com

[Balance]

Synlait obviously know what it is about, and their price is down over 6% in Two days.

May have no impact on Synlait - could be ATM specific issue.

[RupertBear]

This stock has a "cult" following. In effect its the "Tesla" of the NZX. You're not the only one that's been shouted out of the room I can assure you.
I came very close to leaving this forum because of the aggression and abuse I got in here for posting objective independent thoughts when I wasn't holding a long or short position.
There is no room in here for objective debate and those that made this thread that way will likely get their just "reward" on Monday.

That is not correct Beagle, you got called out by many of us for repeatedly bagging Couta.

And I agree with McPussPuss getting some kind of satisfaction from thinking some of us might loose money doesn't seem very Christian to me either

[Gregnz]

[/B]
That is not correct Beagle, you got called out by many of us for repeatedly bagging Couta.

And I agree with McPussPuss getting some kind of satisfaction from thinking some of us might loose money doesn't seem very Christian to me either

Ain’t no way that Beagle could be Christian, but what’s that got to do with anything? What have I missed.

[BlackPeter]

Another QEX type situation?

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/362113

How many million worth of stock would you need to steal from ATM to make this material?

Quite unlikely I would think ... but admittedly, I don't see anything else either which would require them to ask for two days on the slide rulers before they are able to size the loss (or gain ?).

[Ggcc]

Another QEX type situation?


https://www.nzx.com/announcements/362113

If that is the case. Who is to blame for that?

[alokdhir]

Trading Halt is pending announcement from ATM till Monday morning maximum . But can be lifted as soon as ATM makes announcement today or tomorrow .

It doesn't mean trading will resume only on Monday morning ...maybe soon after announcement made today or early morning Friday ..

It seems news is bad ...why had to wait till almost 5.5 months done of HY ...just a month back at ASM they said guidance is still correct !!!!

Most likely some China political dynamics ...but that shud effect Fontera more too ...

Also how come KFL people got to know so that they cud reduce position just last week ...were selling around $ 14 ...very mysterious !!

[BlackPeter]

Synlait obviously know what it is about, and their price is down over 6% in Two days.

Obviously they don't. Didn't you read their announcement before your commented on it?

[Gregnz]

If that is the case. Who is to blame for that?

I highly doubt it’s missing inventory or another QEX, A2’s partners in China who handle their inventory are Chinese government owned companies. Wouldn’t be a good look if the Chinese government were associated with stealing truckloads of milk powder.

[Balance]

[/B]
That is not correct Beagle, you got called out by many of us for repeatedly bagging Couta.

And I agree with McPussPuss getting some kind of satisfaction from thinking some of us might loose money doesn't seem very Christian to me either

Beagle and Couta have been mates for a while - they rib each other and if you read their comments, they may get heated but never vindictive and the comments are not grudge forming.

Don't attribute your own ill or hurt feelings to others when said feelings are not there.

[tomm]

Lower Guidance might lead to higher SP also.

[Balance]

Lower Guidance might lead to higher SP also.

Hope - trying to cover up or justify the FEAR.

[winner69]

November financial reports probably showed the ‘hoped for’ improvement didn’t happen.

So it’s back to basics and challenging /reviewing all internal forecasts taking into account updated knowledge on all drivers (input prices, selling prices, demand, forex etc etc etc ) and come up with a new forecast they can live with without being embarrassed in the future.

Been there, done that in the past

Tomm me old mate sometimes they end up with a higher forecast and you will be happy as .....but generally it ends in tears.

[Gregnz]

A serious question though, seems many have been convinced for months that downgrades come in 3’s , and with that being the case, if a downgrade is what eventuates, how much of that sentiment is already baked into the share price?
I guess it depends how much of a downgrade, it could remove a bit of the uncertainty that has existed from those who were convinced of a downgrade happening. Be good to get that out of the way and start moving forward.

[Cyclical]

That is not correct Beagle, you got called out by many of us for repeatedly bagging Couta.

And I agree with McPussPuss getting some kind of satisfaction from thinking some of us might loose money doesn't seem very Christian to me either

Agreed on both counts.


Ain’t no way that Beagle could be Christian, but what’s that got to do with anything? What have I missed.

Pass. 'tis the season I guess...

[tomm]

November financial reports probably showed the ‘hoped for’ improvement didn’t happen.

So it’s back to basics and challenging /reviewing all internal forecasts taking into account updated knowledge on all drivers (input prices, selling prices, demand, forex etc etc etc ) and come up with a new forecast they can live with without being embarrassed in the future.

Been there, done that in the past

Tomm me old mate sometimes they end up with a higher forecast and you will be happy as .....but generally it ends in tears.
For the current market and what is happenning on the news , I guess , it is due to the halt on all the shipments and couldn't port "LOGISTICS" . Anyway the vaccines are rolling out the world should help to ease its congestions at no time.

[RGR367]

Bad news is more likely but it could be good news too. And for some of us whose average cost is less than 4 bucks, it's not an issue at all :cool:

[winner69]

I always thought putting Babidge back in charge was a bad move and detrimental to the future of A2

Needed somebody with fresh eyes who could see where impending risks were and sort of be better prepared

At least he’s going soon ...Hearn needs to follow as well

[Ggcc]

For the current market and what is happenning on the news , I guess , it is due to the halt on all the shipments and couldn't port "LOGISTICS" . Anyway the vaccines are rolling out the world should help to ease its congestions at no time.
ATM still a longterm hold so far, but keeping a cautious eye on their announcement. Wont be selling if its a short-term blimp.

[Gregnz]

Bad news is more likely but it could be good news too. And for some of us whose average cost is less than 4 bucks, it's not an issue at all :cool:

Some of us also purchased big between $14-$15. I guess all depends what the announcement is, and if it’s a downgrade, how much of that sentiment is already baked into the share price.

[alokdhir]

November financial reports probably showed the ‘hoped for’ improvement didn’t happen.

So it’s back to basics and challenging /reviewing all internal forecasts taking into account updated knowledge on all drivers (input prices, selling prices, demand, forex etc etc etc ) and come up with a new forecast they can live with without being embarrassed in the future.

Been there, done that in the past

Tomm me old mate sometimes they end up with a higher forecast and you will be happy as .....but generally it ends in tears.

After reading the ATM reasons for Halt letter to ASX ...it seems its not just continuous process ...they claim they have become aware of this new information which requires them to revise the guidance . They need time to process this new information and further information in the pipeline ( maybe ) . It has to be some new regulation which has suddenly become an issue which needs time to assess its impact on their sales etc ?

Simple downgrades dont require market Halt calculations for so long ....Seems more substantial then that . Fingers crossed ...it can still be positive news 1/5 chance ...:D

[bull....]

All the ATM shorters (59m shares as st 9 December) are getting ready for a very Merry Christmas?

hope im not the only one celebrating xmas

[JohnnyTheHorse]

hope im not the only one celebrating xmas

The bears shall feast.

[RupertBear]

Beagle and Couta have been mates for a while - they rib each other and if you read their comments, they may get heated but never vindictive and the comments are not grudge forming.

Don't attribute your own ill or hurt feelings to others when said feelings are not there.

Not sure what you are going on about me attributing my own ill or hurt feelings to others...:confused:

And I think you will find your opinion on Beagle and Coutas friendship is out of date

[tomm]

After reading the ATM reasons for Halt letter to ASX ...it seems its not just continuous process ...they claim they have become aware of this new information which requires them to revise the guidance . They need time to process this new information and further information in the pipeline ( maybe ) . It has to be some new regulation which has suddenly become an issue which needs time to assess its impact on their sales etc ?

Simple downgrades dont require market Halt calculations for so long ....Seems more substantial then that . Fingers crossed ...it can still be positive news 1/5 chance ...:D

Hm.. Could it be some of the shipments are detected with covid-19 and they are investigating it and that is the reason they put on a Trade Halt for 3 days ???
I am expecting the market should be flooded and booked in all SELL by now. But it is not , only 1 person with a big volume ( maybe Options expires day for him).

[ratkin]

Not sure what you are going on about me attributing my own ill or hurt feelings to others...:confused:

And I think you will find your opinion on Beagle and Coutas friendship is out of date

Is any of this rubbish really appropriate on this forum? It is not the school playground. Not directed at Rupert per se

[Panda-NZ-]

Well some degree of bad news has been priced in (down from recent high), so it could surprise on the upside.

[winner69]

After reading the ATM reasons for Halt letter to ASX ...it seems its not just continuous process ...they claim they have become aware of this new information which requires them to revise the guidance . They need time to process this new information and further information in the pipeline ( maybe ) . It has to be some new regulation which has suddenly become an issue which needs time to assess its impact on their sales etc ?

Simple downgrades dont require market Halt calculations for so long ....Seems more substantial then that . Fingers crossed ...it can still be positive news 1/5 chance ...:D

This isn't a simple downgrade - betcha they've found after reviewing the November reports what they had been really hoping to improve / come right hasn't eventuated. Betcha things have gone bad and they can't wait until the half year is up before they disclose how bad things are.

It's back to the drawing board and revising all forecasts with an open mind and come up with numbers that reflect reality ....not hope ... can't afford to get it wrong this time around.

Not unusual for trading halts to last a day or two in these circumstances.

I've been there and done that

[RupertBear]

Is any of this rubbish really appropriate on this forum? It is not the school playground. Not directed at Rupert per se

I think that is a fair comment

[Lego_Man]

Lower Guidance might lead to higher SP also.

Hahahahahahahah

[alokdhir]

[QUOTE=winner69;862928]This isn't a simple downgrade - betcha they've found after reviewing the November reports what they had been really hoping to improve / come right hasn't eventuated. Betcha things have gone bad and they can't wait until the half year is up before they disclose how bad things are.

It's back to the drawing board and revising all forecasts with an open mind and come up with numbers that reflect reality ....not hope ... can't afford to get it wrong this time around.

My point being that when last downgrade came 8:30 AM 28th Sept ...they didn't need Halt ...so why now ?

As then it was more of a sales issue which they could see happening ...they forecasted after 3 months gone . ASM was 4.5 months gone ...all ok was given . Now 5.5 months gone ...needs 3 days of calculations !!!

My 2C is that it involves some new development which was sudden and now they incorporating in their future calculations .

Still 5% chance of positive news ...lol

[Cyclical]

Hm.. Could it be some of the shipments are detected with covid-19 and they are investigating it and that is the reason they put on a Trade Halt for 3 days ???
I am expecting the market should be flooded and booked in all SELL by now. But it is not , only 1 person with a big volume ( maybe Options expires day for him).

Crikey, hadn't thought of that one. Wouldn't be the first time that C19 has allegedly been found on food products imported into China...

[glasszon]

Ouch, seems like I really managed to buy at the top earlier this year, time to sell them as soon as the trading halt is lifted and take the hit as it's clear the problem is much more deeply rooted than just covid.

Good luck to the ATM holders out there.

[winner69]

[QUOTE=winner69;862928]This isn't a simple downgrade - betcha they've found after reviewing the November reports what they had been really hoping to improve / come right hasn't eventuated. Betcha things have gone bad and they can't wait until the half year is up before they disclose how bad things are.

It's back to the drawing board and revising all forecasts with an open mind and come up with numbers that reflect reality ....not hope ... can't afford to get it wrong this time around.

My point being that when last downgrade came 8:30 AM 28th Sept ...they didn't need Halt ...so why now ?

As then it was more of a sales issue which they could see happening ...they forecasted after 3 months gone . ASM was 4.5 months gone ...all ok was given . Now 5.5 months gone ...needs 3 days of calculations !!!

My 2C is that it involves some new development which was sudden and now they incorporating in their future calculations .

Still 5% chance of positive news ...lol

The Sep announcement wasn’t really a downgrade ....it just quantified a rather vague outlook given in the full year results announcement ...like strong growth to $1.8b ...confirmed at ASM ..easy done

Things haven’t gone to plan ....things they hoped would not happen have .....so back to drawing board to come up with a realistic number they can achieve.

[clearasmud]

Ouch, seems like I really managed to buy at the top earlier this year, time to sell them as soon as the trading halt is lifted and take the hit as it's clear the problem is much more deeply rooted than just covid.

Good luck to the ATM holders out there.

Downgrade. See SML announcement. Commiserations.

[Gregnz]

Downgrade. See SML announcement. Commiserations.

A downgrade in that SML announcement is as clear as mud

[Cyclical]

Ouch, seems like I really managed to buy at the top earlier this year, time to sell them as soon as the trading halt is lifted and take the hit as it's clear the problem is much more deeply rooted than just covid.

Good luck to the ATM holders out there.

On the other hand, you might bail out on the bad news at the bottom, only for it to bounce back up a couple of bucks just after your trade goes through! Maybe it's better to sit tight, ride out the storm and use it as an opportunity DCA...options, options...requiring careful consideration.

[Cyclical]

The really interesting thing will be if this latest round of bad news, if that's what it's going to be, starts to spook some of the instos.

[glasszon]

Downgrade. See SML announcement. Commiserations.

Thanks, at least my overall portfolio is still in the green this year, but yeah buying ATM is my worst investment decision this year by far, I must say the vaccine rally helped a lot in migrating the pain from ATM.

Only question is whether to sell on market open or wait for a dead cat bounce a few hours after opening.

[YoungBull]

@glasszon Wanting to sell before even digesting the information may suggest you could look at your reasons for buying this stock :)

[alokdhir]

How many people here will still be thinking its a quality company to Hold and give it more time to come back . Or its better to get out at first opportunity thinking its old days will never come back

I know it happens to all companies but some quality ones like FPH MFT types come back to scale new highs after 1-3 years while others just keep going further down and down .

So what we think about ATM ....Long term hold or sell and buy FPH to recover loss in next 2-5 years ??