ATM - A2 Milk Corporation Limited

[Balance]

I thought that was the total number of shares shorted. 8.2% of the total shares on issue?

Yes, total number of shares shorted as of 16 Dec.

[tomm]

People keep saying this sort of thing as if it is all over.
Go back and you find 'well done buying at $18 or $19' etc
Is the downward fall over or is it taking a breather (a dead cat bounce)?
Sold at $20.20

[BlackPeter]

At the risk of sounding a bit dumb, can anyone enlighten me with how a share buy back works? At what point would the company have to disclose this has occurred, I assume we wouldn’t know until it had happened?

What effect would this have on earnings per share. Am I on the right track in thinking eps increases because less shares are in the market?

Company would need to announce their intention to buy back and any relevant rules they decided on (like first day of buyback, buyback period and maximum daily volume like e.g. not more than 20% of trading volume every day or similar).

Company would then announce every morning after buying back shares how many they did buy back the day before.

Whether earnings ratio per share increases with the buyback depends on whether the company decides to cancel the shares (in this case obviously proportional earning for the remaining shares increases) or whether they keep them in reserve (companies decision). If they keep them in reserve, it obviously depends on what they ultimately do with the shares they bought back ....

[Gregnz]

Company would need to announce their intention to buy back and any relevant rules they decided on (like first day of buyback, buyback period and maximum daily volume like e.g. not more than 20% of trading volume every day or similar).

Company would then announce every morning after buying back shares how many they did buy back the day before.

Whether earnings ratio per share increases with the buyback depends on whether the company decides to cancel the shares (in this case obviously proportional earning for the remaining shares increases) or whether they keep them in reserve (companies decision). If they keep them in reserve, it obviously depends on what they ultimately do with the shares they bought back ....

Great , thanks

[see weed]

Looks like sharesies is helping things along buying in aggressively this morning. Have decided to hold back and not sell a small portion I had on the market 2 days ago. I notice it is up $1.26 from the yearly low of $10.46c....45hours ago:t_up:

[Gregnz]

Looks like sharesies is helping things along buying in aggressively this morning. Have decided to hold back and not sell a small portion I had on the market 2 days ago. I notice it is up $1.26 from the yearly low of $10.46c 45hours ago:t_up:

I'm not entirely convinced the trend has changed. I want to average down from a parcel I purchased for $15 a while back, but I'll give it a few days to see where things head. I guess we are entirely dependent on which way the ASX heads after it opens.

[winner69]

I'm not entirely convinced the trend has changed. I want to average down from a parcel I purchased for $15 a while back, but I'll give it a few days to see where things head. I guess we are entirely dependent on which way the ASX heads after it opens.

You hell bent on averaging down eh

Do the maths

Say you going to buy 50% more shares at a lower price than $15

At $12 average would be $14.00
At $11 average would be $13.67
At $10 say average would be $13.33

Not that much different - just buy now - or maybe you should have done as suggested the other day - buy some then ($10 something) and more a bit later on at more or less.

Good luck

[dreamcatcher]

Will be interesting to see what percentage insto's now hold of a2 maybe 90% at a guess be a great battle amongst themselves for the balance...

[Gregnz]

You hell bent on averaging down eh

Do the maths

Say you going to buy 50% more shares at a lower price than $15

At $12 average would be $14.00
At $11 average would be $13.67
At $10 say average would be $13.33

Not that much different - just buy now - or maybe you should have done as suggested the other day - buy some then ($10 something) and more a bit later on at more or less.

Good luck

If I'd done as suggested the other day I would have followed several others on this forum and sold the lot. Fortunately I didn't listen to that advice or follow others, and didn't sell a thing.

Yes I am hell bent on averaging down, but dont want to add to losses either. I want to see a few days of positive momentum and will then weigh up advice as to what professional traders think the price movement will be. Doesn't worry me if I have to pay more.

[Gunner]

Looks like sharesies is helping things along buying in aggressively this morning. Have decided to hold back and not sell a small portion I had on the market 2 days ago. I notice it is up $1.26 from the yearly low of $10.46c....45hours ago:t_up:

Why do you say sharsies?

[madmat]

Still Holding and reading positive, missed on topping up sub $11 though :/

[JohnnyTheHorse]

If I'd done as suggested the other day I would have followed several others on this forum and sold the lot. Fortunately I didn't listen to that advice or follow others, and didn't sell a thing.

Yes I am hell bent on averaging down, but dont want to add to losses either. I want to see a few days of positive momentum and will then weigh up advice as to what professional traders think the price movement will be. Doesn't worry me if I have to pay more.

Just looking for a daily lower high to form and then maybe an equilibrium. Wouldn't get too excited.

[bull....]

$10 support in aus if it breaks new lows coming .... lets go boys

enjoying my short term gains

[alokdhir]

If all the negative news and talk about ATM is actually true or correct then it should not cross 12.40 levels at all ...lets wait and see !!

Truth will be exposed soon

Some said 6.5 coming !!!

[Davexl]

If I'd done as suggested the other day I would have followed several others on this forum and sold the lot. Fortunately I didn't listen to that advice or follow others, and didn't sell a thing.

Yes I am hell bent on averaging down, but dont want to add to losses either. I want to see a few days of positive momentum and will then weigh up advice as to what professional traders think the price movement will be. Doesn't worry me if I have to pay more.

Good for you to not sell, you get to enjoy the bounce (dead-cat delayed), and a bit of short-covering. I think that's it however.

I personally would sell at this point and get out.
I sold at $11 at a sizeable loss and didn't even play the bounce, delayed by a day (warning?), as I usually would have.
Risks are simply too high for me esp. geopolitical at this point, delayed daigou recovery and blindsided management.
Sleeping better now (after frying my nerves) despite the loss on the chin...

[Gregnz]

Good for you to not sell, you get to enjoy the bounce (dead-cat delayed), and a bit of short-covering. I think that's it however.

I personally would sell at this point and get out.
I sold at $11 at a sizeable loss and didn't even play the bounce, delayed by a day (warning?), as I usually would have.
Risks are simply too high for me esp. geopolitical at this point, delayed daigou recovery and blindsided management.
Sleeping better now (after frying my nerves) despite the loss on the chin...

Agree, the fried nerves. I follow HotCopper closely, and its certainly interesting to see some of the naysayers there now telling us they have bought in recently. At this point I'm just going to follow my gut and wait it out. I dont know if to be absolutely gutted for a few on here who sold at recent lows, or pleased for you that you got out when you did. Time will tell.

[dreamcatcher]

Agree, the fried nerves. I follow HotCopper closely, and its certainly interesting to see some of the naysayers there now telling us they have bought in recently. At this point I'm just going to follow my gut and wait it out. I dont know if to be absolutely gutted for a few on here who sold at recent lows, or pleased for you that you got out when you did. Time will tell.

Follow your own gut feelings!!

Personally didn't sell any at recent $21 highs so not about to sell at these levels. Insto's probably happy to accumulate. Suppose people can buy from them later at a premium.??

[dreamcatcher]

enjoying my short term gains

Well done......... imagine you closed your short

[bull....]

Well done......... imagine you closed your short

no you can do both. long and short with different accounts

[Gregnz]

no you can do both. long and short with different accounts

Trying to get my head around that. Doesn't doing both basically just mean you end up coming out with nothing? As the share price increases, you achieve short term gains on shares you bought, but you lose the gains you had on the short position? I guess on the short position the hope is that the share price doesn't keep increasing.

[alokdhir]

Trying to get my head around that. Doesn't doing both basically just mean you end up coming out with nothing? As the share price increases, you achieve short term gains on shares you bought, but you lose the gains you had on the short position? I guess on the short position the hope is that the share price doesn't keep increasing.

Closing them at different SP levels and points of time ...He played short term bounce from 11 to 12 ...while keeping his medium term shorts on !!

[bull....]

Trying to get my head around that. Doesn't doing both basically just mean you end up coming out with nothing? As the share price increases, you achieve short term gains on shares you bought, but you lose the gains you had on the short position? I guess on the short position the hope is that the share price doesn't keep increasing.

protects your gains in the short as your net neutral, if it heads down again you make more than just having a short. only worth attempting if your good with market timing

[Gregnz]

protects your gains in the short as your net neutral, if it heads down again you make more than just having a short. only worth attempting if your good with market timing

Got it. Sounds interesting. Definitely beyond my limited ability.

[Baa_Baa]

Trying to get my head around that. Doesn't doing both basically just mean you end up coming out with nothing? As the share price increases, you achieve short term gains on shares you bought, but you lose the gains you had on the short position? I guess on the short position the hope is that the share price doesn't keep increasing.

Google "Spread Strategies", works for most market traded asset classes, very common in options trading.
As bull**** says, you have to be onto your timing.

[dreamcatcher]

Google "Spread Strategies", works for most market traded asset classes, very common in options trading.
As bull**** says, you have to be onto your timing.

Imagine could be double risky with constant SP watching as NZ sometimes goes both ways same day

In the too hard basket for me. I'll do the old way buy and hold

[winner69]

Mataura investment a goer

Some $268m and heaps more in the next few years

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/ATM/365654/338149.pdf

[trader_jackson]

Mataura investment a goer

Some $268m and heaps more in the next few years

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/ATM/365654/338149.pdf

Is it good to be expanding when you're contracting?

[winner69]

Is it good to be expanding when you're contracting?

Like a coiled spring ....think a few years out

[Balance]

Like a coiled spring ....think a few years out

Think shot shock absorber as an alternative scenario - Ignored and not acknowledged by the company & some on the market .

Company happily carries on driving down the now metal road after leaving the smooth highway.

Karicare A2 IF $32 vs ATM $44 - $44 comes down or $32 goes up?

[Lion_graf]

Acquisition not for another year..

[Gerald]

Think shot shock absorber as an alternative scenario - Ignored and not acknowledged by the company & some on the market .

Company happily carries on driving down the now metal road after leaving the smooth highway.

Karicare A2 IF $32 vs ATM $44 - $44 comes down or $32 goes up?

Pepsi 1.5L $1.70, Coca-Cola 1.5L $3.80.

Naturally, brand loyalty doesn't exist and consumers are completely rational.

[Ggcc]

Think shot shock absorber as an alternative scenario - Ignored and not acknowledged by the company & some on the market .

Company happily carries on driving down the now metal road after leaving the smooth highway.

Karicare A2 IF $32 vs ATM $44 - $44 comes down or $32 goes up?

Asian people I know always go for the most expensive item, to them, it must seem to be the best. I have seen it happen at retail stores as well. It’s like giving them a boost to their ego. Also like carrying wads of cash.

It makes no sense to me, but it does to them.

[Gregnz]

I saw this posted on HC which was apparently information written for Chinese investors (https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/337852279) translated into english in the image. I thought points 4, 5, 6 on the advantages side were interesting when many think A2 product is priced higher than competitors.

12162

[Ruby]

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/ATM/365654/338149.pdf

"...A key feature of a2MC’s proposed investment in MVM is that MVM’s current majority shareholder, China Animal Husbandry Group (CAHG), will retain a 25% interest in MVM alongside a2MC. CAHG is a wholly owned subsidiary of China National Agriculture Development Group Co., Ltd, which is also the parent company of a2MC’s strategic logistics and distribution partner in China, CSFA Holdings Shanghai, Co., Ltd. (China State Farm)...."


"....• partnering with a highly-respected China state owned enterprise in CAHG, to assist in further developing the business, including into China;
• the opportunity to produce additional infant nutrition products for China and other markets; and
the ability to capture manufacturing margin...."


"...Dr.Xue, Chairman of MVM, said, “CAHG welcomes The a2 Milk Company as a strategic partner as both companies share the same vision of creating large scale world-class nutritional manufacturing at MVM. a2MC already works closely with our sister company China State Farm and is well respected in the China market. CAHG would like to thank our local farmers and staff for their continued support and is looking forward to MVM being a significant contributor in the Southland economy...”

[Balance]

Asian people I know always go for the most expensive item, to them, it must seem to be the best. I have seen it happen at retail stores as well. It’s like giving them a boost to their ego. Also like carrying wads of cash.

It makes no sense to me, but it does to them.

Not true.

Comes down to what and when they are buying.

I should know - we export a range of NZ products to Asia, mostly to China.

[longy]

Pepsi 1.5L $1.70, Coca-Cola 1.5L $3.80.

Naturally, brand loyalty doesn't exist and consumers are completely rational.

Speaking from my own experience. Once the children is happy with the range or brand... I would not change it for anything....

[Balance]

Pepsi 1.5L $1.70, Coca-Cola 1.5L $3.80.

Naturally, brand loyalty doesn't exist and consumers are completely rational.

And week later, Pepsi $3.00, Cocal-Cola $1.85.

Oldest trick in the book - brand rotation sales in supermarkets.

ETA chips sale one week, Blue Bird chips another.

There is supermarket sale rotation as well - chicken on sale at Oak n Save one week, Countdown the next.

[mondograss]

I think the more telling quote in that announcement (for those that take an interest in the relationship with SML anyway):
With the business currently producing a high proportion of commodity milk powder products, our plans for
MVM are to support its transition to being a manufacturer of predominantly consumer packaged
nutritional products for a2MC over the medium term.

It then goes on to talk about having MVM producing significant nutritional volumes by 2025. Isn't that roughly when SML's contract comes up?

[Gregnz]

I think the more telling quote in that announcement (for those that take an interest in the relationship with SML anyway):
With the business currently producing a high proportion of commodity milk powder products, our plans for
MVM are to support its transition to being a manufacturer of predominantly consumer packaged
nutritional products for a2MC over the medium term.

It then goes on to talk about having MVM producing significant nutritional volumes by 2025. Isn't that roughly when SML's contract comes up?

31st July 2025. MVM hasn't been purchased solely to manufacture cans of IF. Plenty of new products in the pipeline for A2

[dreamcatcher]

I think the more telling quote in that announcement (for those that take an interest in the relationship with SML anyway):
With the business currently producing a high proportion of commodity milk powder products, our plans for
MVM are to support its transition to being a manufacturer of predominantly consumer packaged
nutritional products for a2MC over the medium term.

It then goes on to talk about having MVM producing significant nutritional volumes by 2025. Isn't that roughly when SML's contract comes up?

My thoughts play safe and use two manufacturing plants...............Maybe the expansion into America happening perhaps?

[Ggcc]

Not true.

Comes down to what and when they are buying.

I should know - we export a range of NZ products to Asia, mostly to China.
I do agree that I don’t know what Asians prefer in mainland China, but of the hundreds in New Zealand I have interacted with they always go big and expensive. That includes those that travel to nz. I have met people who have traded with Asian directly and lives in Shanghai. He referred to them, pardon the expression as “sheep”. One buys and the other follows and buys the same.

[Louisphan]

I do agree that I don’t know what Asians prefer in mainland China, but of the hundreds in New Zealand I have interacted with they always go big and expensive. That includes those that travel to nz. I have met people who have traded with Asian directly and lives in Shanghai. He referred to them, pardon the expression as “sheep”. One buys and the other follows and buys the same.

You are right, 90% of Asians love the most expensive and foreign brand name products. As long as they can afford it, they will go for it. Face are so important to them, people around me use it, i cant use a cheaper one.

[BlackPeter]

I do agree that I don’t know what Asians prefer in mainland China, but of the hundreds in New Zealand I have interacted with they always go big and expensive. That includes those that travel to nz. I have met people who have traded with Asian directly and lives in Shanghai. He referred to them, pardon the expression as “sheep”. One buys and the other follows and buys the same.

Do you notice how racist your post is?

There are more than 3 billion Asians in Asia, you know hardly any of them (or none) but pretend to know how "they" might behave. If they are sheep, than so are some Kiwis ... well, at least the racist ones.

In this day and age should people know how dumb and offending generalizations are.

Let me give you some news: In any statistical relevant group of people are some conformists, some individualists, some extroverts, some introverts, some honest people, some crooks, some overperformers, some underperformers as well as some people who try to enhance their perceived status buy parking a big SUV in their driveway or buy buying the expensive milk powder instead of the cheaper one.

This is just how people happen to behave - and has absolutely nothing to do with their race, gender, nationality or skin color.

I do know a number of Asian people, both in Asia as well as here in NZ. Some of them belong to our family, many used to work for me at some stage. Trust me - each of them is an individual - and there is not more or less they have in common than any other randomly selected number of people.

Well - maybe, many of the Asian people I met are often more polite and more friendly than some of the fair skinned people I met in my life. But again - I would know that generalizations on the basis of some ten or hundred people are stupid.

[Gregnz]

The thing with A2, yes they are paying more for the brand, but they also pay a premium for the NZ factor. NZ produced product carries a degree of trust. A2’s only real competition at the premium end is other infant formula produced in NZ. Expansion of locally produced Chinese brands are significantly cheaper but appeal to a completely different target market.
I’ve lost count of the number of times people have said that locally produced Chinese formula made in China is so much cheaper and will put A2 out of business. It’s like suggesting cheap pairs of running shoes are somehow going to put Nike out of business. Same argument, different product.

[Balance]

The thing with A2, yes they are paying more for the brand, but they also pay a premium for the NZ factor. NZ produced product carries a degree of trust. A2’s only real competition at the premium end is other infant formula produced in NZ. Expansion of locally produced Chinese brands are significantly cheaper but appeal to a completely different target market.
I’ve lost count of the number of times people have said that locally produced Chinese formula is so much cheaper and will put A2 out of business. It’s like suggesting cheap pairs of running shoes are somehow going to put Nike out of business. Same argument, different product.

Eh - you know that Karicare A2 is produced in NZ, right?

[Gregnz]

Eh - you know that Karicare A2 is produced in NZ, right?

Yes, that’s what I said. Only real competition is other infant formulas produced in NZ

[Balance]

Yes, that’s what I said. Only real competition is other infant formulas produced in NZ

$32 vs $44

[Gregnz]

$32 vs $44

Absolutely. I’m surprised Karicare isn’t cheaper. The brands don’t compare.

[Balance]

Absolutely. I’m surprised Karicare isn’t cheaper. The brands don’t compare.

Shows how little you know!

Karicare is probably the most established NZ IF brand through daigou in China! When I was in China a few years ago, the counterfeiters were paying $10 per empty Karicare can. Know why?

[Gregnz]

Shows how little you know!

Karicare is probably the most established NZ IF brand through daigou in China! When I was in China a few years ago, the counterfeiters were paying $10 per empty Karicare can. Know why?

A2 can command the price they do because consumers are prepared to pay it. Karicare haven’t turned up overnight so I don’t know why your making a sudden push that you think it’s going to result in the demise of A2. Competition expands markets, it doesn’t shrink them.

[Gregnz]

Shows how little you know!

Karicare is probably the most established NZ IF brand through daigou in China! When I was in China a few years ago, the counterfeiters were paying $10 per empty Karicare can. Know why?

I’d also be very concerned for Karicare if counterfeiters are trying to purchase empty cans, wonder what they were wanting to put inside?
Fortunately A2 developed that tamper proof can.

[Balance]

A2 can command the price they do because consumers are prepared to pay it. Karicare haven’t turned up overnight so I don’t know why your making a sudden push that you think it’s going to result in the demise of A2. Competition expands markets, it doesn’t shrink them.

Where did I write that Karicare will lead to the demise of A2 IF?

The two profit downgrades in 3 months tell me A2 is under pressure already from the likes of Karicare.

[Balance]

I’d also be very concerned for Karicare if counterfeiters are trying to purchase empty cans, wonder what they were wanting to put inside?
Fortunately A2 developed that tamper proof can.

That was a few years ago.

[Gregnz]

Where did I write that Karicare will lead to the demise of A2 IF?

The two profit downgrades in 3 months tell me A2 is under pressure already from the likes of Karicare.

Your suggesting that competition is a bad thing. It definitely isn’t when the A2 milk market is still growing.

Have you heard of Covid?

[Balance]

Your suggesting that competition is a bad thing. It definitely isn’t when the A2 milk market is still growing.

Have you heard of Covid?

Nothing wrong with competition.

$32 vs $44 tells me a lot.

2 downgrades in 3 months also tells me a lot.

[HKG2301]

Do you notice how racist your post is?

There are more than 3 billion Asians in Asia, you know hardly any of them (or none) but pretend to know how "they" might behave. If they are sheep, than so are some Kiwis ... well, at least the racist ones.

In this day and age should people know how dumb and offending generalizations are.

Let me give you some news: In any statistical relevant group of people are some conformists, some individualists, some extroverts, some introverts, some honest people, some crooks, some overperformers, some underperformers as well as some people who try to enhance their perceived status buy parking a big SUV in their driveway or buy buying the expensive milk powder instead of the cheaper one.

This is just how people happen to behave - and has absolutely nothing to do with their race, gender, nationality or skin color.

I do know a number of Asian people, both in Asia as well as here in NZ. Some of them belong to our family, many used to work for me at some stage. Trust me - each of them is an individual - and there is not more or less they have in common than any other randomly selected number of people.

Well - maybe, many of the Asian people I met are often more polite and more friendly than some of the fair skinned people I met in my life. But again - I would know that generalizations on the basis of some ten or hundred people are stupid.

Feel better for getting that off your chest? Now breeeeeeath... :)

Anyone who has travelled, certainly anyone who has lived anywhere as an expat, realises that different countries (nationalities, even races) have radically diverse views on, well, just about everything. From diet to dress, social conventions to politics. The list is endless.

Recognising this doesn't make one 'racist'.

So, returning to topic, the Chinese very definitely have a particular emphasis on 'face' and this does indeed trickle down into their buying habits, from foreign cars to milk products, and much in between.

So the conversation concerning ATM's price premium in China is not 'racist', any more than it would be if we were discussing yer average Kiwi male's love of Toyota utes. Now there's premium pricing for you!

[xp04]

Nothing wrong with competition.

$32 vs $44 tells me a lot.

2 downgrades in 3 months also tells me a lot.

You used to repeat about China's coming ban as a mantra and now it's all about karicare :)

[Gregnz]

Nothing wrong with competition.

$32 vs $44 tells me a lot.

2 downgrades in 3 months also tells me a lot.

2 downgrades in 3 months tells me that a one in one hundred year event happened, which no business was prepared for. I for one expected A2 to do much much worse.

[Balance]

You used to repeat about China's coming ban as a mantra and now it's all about karicare :)

You forget about my 'downgrades come in threes'.

Should have posted more often actually that fact.

[Gregnz]

You forget about my 'downgrades come in threes'.

Should have posted more often actually that fact.

And if a third downgrade doesn’t come? Won’t it be too late to buy in then?
If I’d listened to some here recently I would have sold under $11, fortunately I didn’t. I’m not celebrating yet, but should guidance be met, I’ll feel gutted for those who sold out at recent lows. They certainly would have done a lot better selling above $12 today vs under $11 recently.
Hindsight is a great thing. Maybe another downgrade happens, maybe it doesn’t.

[Waltzing]

Classic rebound... vertical down, bounce back. Even FBU rebounded. Well done to anyone would profited and thank goodness,. NZX needs every stock it can get.

[xp04]

You forget about my 'downgrades come in threes'.

Should have posted more often actually that fact.

First, I "should" nothing to anybody. Second, "downgrades come in threes" is not yours. And third, from my point of view, technically there was only one downgrade so far.

[Balance]

And if a third downgrade doesn’t come? Won’t it be too late to buy in then?
If I’d listened to some here recently I would have sold under $11, fortunately I didn’t. I’m not celebrating yet, but should guidance be met, I’ll feel gutted for those who sold out at recent lows. They certainly would have done a lot better selling above $12 today vs under $11 recently.
Hindsight is a great thing. Maybe another downgrade happens, maybe it doesn’t.

No hindsight - you could have sold out at the first downgrade and buy back $5 or more at the second downgrade.

[Balance]

First, I "should" nothing to anybody. Second, "downgrades come in threes" is not yours. And third, from my point of view, technically there was only one downgrade so far.

Profoundly revealing!

Thank you for the confirmation!

No wonder the shorters love dancing partners on the trading floor like you! :D

[Ggcc]

Do you notice how racist your post is?

There are more than 3 billion Asians in Asia, you know hardly any of them (or none) but pretend to know how "they" might behave. If they are sheep, than so are some Kiwis ... well, at least the racist ones.

In this day and age should people know how dumb and offending generalizations are.

Let me give you some news: In any statistical relevant group of people are some conformists, some individualists, some extroverts, some introverts, some honest people, some crooks, some overperformers, some underperformers as well as some people who try to enhance their perceived status buy parking a big SUV in their driveway or buy buying the expensive milk powder instead of the cheaper one.

This is just how people happen to behave - and has absolutely nothing to do with their race, gender, nationality or skin color.

I do know a number of Asian people, both in Asia as well as here in NZ. Some of them belong to our family, many used to work for me at some stage. Trust me - each of them is an individual - and there is not more or less they have in common than any other randomly selected number of people.

Well - maybe, many of the Asian people I met are often more polite and more friendly than some of the fair skinned people I met in my life. But again - I would know that generalizations on the basis of some ten or hundred people are stupid.
My intention is not to be racist, generalistic yes, on the people I have met. I also mentioned that I have no idea of what the choices from mainland China are and they might be the conformists, some individualists, some extroverts, some introverts, some honest people, some crooks, some overperformers, some underperformers as well as some people who try to enhance their perceived status buy parking a big SUV in their driveway or buy buying the expensive milk powder instead of the cheaper one. Who knows.

But please don't bring racism into my posts. I am blunt and maybe not PC all the time, but I mean well and wish the best for all races, colours, ethnic backgrounds and religious or not.

[alokdhir]

TA is a independent analysis ...Pure TA followers believe that fundamentals will align to fulfil charts demands .

So if we are to be fundamentally on further deterioration path then crossing 12.40 will prove to be almost impossible ...

Also sellers at 11 levels did nothing wrong ...they could have waited for this bounce but they were so scared and negative that they thought it prudent to cut their losses and buy peace of mind ...no one can time the market to perfect dime !!

Remember on first down grade it went from 18.40 to 15.30 or so then bounced till 16.30 but eventually settled at 14 .

Now as market was 70% priced for this to come so either the equilibrium point is around here only or if further troubles expected it may test 10.90-11.20 band .

Extreme case 9.80 should hold unless 3rd downgrade is more severe and unexpected ...10/100 chance !!!

[xp04]

Profoundly revealing!

Thank you for the confirmation!

No wonder the shorters love dancing partners on the trading floor like you! :D

Hope your trading skills are better than your analytical one. Have a Merry Christmas

[Longhaul]

Regardless of whether there's been 1 or 2 downgrades so far, a simple TA analysis reveals an entrenched downtrend from early August.

I would be waiting for confirmation of a reversal before buying in, even just an SMA cross (and a tight stop).

(ASX data, Heiken Ashi candles and 10,30 SMAs)

12163

[Beagle]

Looks like riding the major trend changes, (momentum trading) in the last 3 years has been the most productive strategy. Changes of position dictated by a break up or down through the black line (100 day MA) seem to have worked very well and I think they will work well going forward, (in which case a very good risk management strategy is to stay out until there's a clean break up through the 100 day MA, which is what I am doing)
12164. People using a simple TA risk management strategy like that would have sold at ~ $20 and been very pleased they did !

[Gregnz]

Merry Christmas everyone

[Ted2]

I've watched this thread with interest (amongst other things) over the last few weeks. A few legends and posters I've admired over the years for their balance and knowledge have been acting very differently over this period - to the extent it's almost as though someone else has been writing their posts! The amount of 'told you so' and negative down-ramping with almost every comment has been a little tiresome. I am not disputing many of the facts that have been presented, but the continual negativity and biased opinion has been a bit out of hand so I feel obliged to share a little from the other side.

I doubt anyone on this forum has dropped in paper fortunes as much as I have over the past three months, and even more sensationally over the past couple of weeks. I didn't read the tea leaves correctly as I focused more on the good news from ATM about benefiting from Covid and air-freighting to keep up with demand. Yes there were some warning signs, and yes I chose to ignore them. But having an exceptionally low average cost has insulated me to a degree - if you can call accepting a drop of $8 a share on a six figure number insulation!

I will confess that I have been guilty of some of the accusations presented (or should I say repeated ad nauseum) on here lately. Hindsight indicates blind loyalty might have been a problem for me. I may have taken ‘let your winners run’ a little too far. Some posters have indicated that many of the issues could have been foreseen, although even looking objectively now some of the claims made are a little specious. I don't recall seeing any of the continually reinforced claims now being made back when $20 was the benchmark. However that doesn't mean they are not now correct and seemingly obvious – in hindsight.

The continued repetition from a few normally highly respected posters is almost Bull.... proportions, and I cannot fathom how their tunes have changed so quickly – and with such ferocity. There appears to be more disappointment that the price has rebounded over $1, and more and more posts are made turning anything into a price negative – which I find interesting and revealing at the same time.

So as a large and long-term holder, I’m well down over 3 months but still 2000% up over 7 years. I have such a low cost price I couldn’t ever bring myself to pay whatever price is current. But if I was new to it, I’d probably hold off for more news before investing too much. I believe A2 has a very good long-term future and will be a sound investment at current prices. Yep it may go down, and it may go up. Believe me, I’ve gone through many $1 or more ups and downs in one day with this stock and there will be more to come.

Mataura Valley is a good decision. Having 25% Chinese ownership is the best part. Making $300m a year would still indicate a pretty decent company. So contrary to the experts on here, I think the board got all of the very worst news out. They just couldn’t risk not doing this. So for me, I doubt we’ll get the now (in)famous 3rd downgrade we have all read so much about lately, and may even get some minor positive news. Note - unlike a few here who now seem to state everything as fact, this is only my opinion. But at least if I’m wrong I will at least say ‘I was wrong’!

Here my one 100% prediction though – Doomsday is not coming anytime soon!

Good luck to all……..and yes luck does come into it! :)

[Waltzing]

The Pope will address the masses in due course. my son your confession is herd and all is forgiven unto the lord.

[Ruby]

Well said Ted,Merry Christmas :-)

[Gunner]

Ted2 agreed. Still a good company and just a hiccup imo. 2 years from now will be a different story. More upside than downside at these prices so best to hold. Everyone is clever in hindsight.

[Waltzing]

Along with the ten commandments there are the accounting standards chiselled in stone. Until they are from time to time chiselled a new.

I you are invested in a stock and its risen 1000 percent the normal practise is to take some profit and if no legal issues or globally destructive events to the market are nearby total redemption of your position is not recommended.

Statements of prudence remind all investors to be careful and are usually made with the best intensions in order to protect investor from hubris.

[CD_CHCH]

I need that forgiveness. I must be a very bad and dogmatic dog, been told as much by Ted so who am I to argue but on the other hand...maybe people who hardly ever post anything despite lurking here for nearly 2 decades and soaking up all the information for free shouldn't critique those that make this place a vibrant debating chamber ? Maybe I am not such a bad dog after all....?

Can't help wondering if he's down more than $1.5m from the peak like you know who... (I must be a bad, bad dog) :blush: (Slinks away to his kennel to contemplate tomorrow's feast and mutters to himself that I should have learned by now this has a cult following and posting objective analysis is truly a waste of time and downgrades come is three's is right 90%+ of the time in my long experience but what would I know...just a silly old, greying, fat Beagle who likes to bark too much...mind you I did sell at $13 nearly 3 years ago and have made heaps since in other shares so maybe not so silly after all)

Merry Christmas All !!

Beagle - I feel compelled to respond. First off a disclaimer as I have no hidden agenda or motivation in regards to ATM at all - I do not hold, nor have I ever held this stock.

You shared what I thought was some really interesting information on the 50/80 rule back in post #19125. Obviously it is up to everyone to do their own research on anything posted on a forum such as this one, however it got me thinking and straight off the top of my head I could think of some examples that seem to follow that rule - SCY, STU, MPG

All of those companies were affected by declines that commenced well before Covid so can't be attributed to a one-off global event that no one saw coming.

Please keep freely sharing your opinions and wisdom on this site, as although I may not always agree 100% with everything you say, anything that makes one stop and think helps us learn and hopefully become a little wiser.

[Snow Leopard]

It seems that Santa Claus has already visited:

12165

[dubya]

It seems that Santa Claus has already visited:

12165

Temporary I hope 😔

[ratkin]

It seems that Santa Claus has already visited:

12165

It might do him good, I like Beagle but he has spun out of control in the last week or Two. I know these forums are meant to be fun, but they have a serious side too, and many people were suffering with A2s downgrade.
The last thing they need is repeated posts from someone taking pleasure in the misfortune of others.

Hopefully he is just in the sin bin for a while and not banned for good, because the old beagle is a valuable contributor, but not the Beagle of the last few weeks.

[Biscuit]

It might do him good, I like Beagle but he has spun out of control in the last week or Two. I know these forums are meant to be fun, but they have a serious side too, and many people were suffering with A2s downgrade.
The last thing they need is repeated posts from someone taking pleasure in the misfortune of others.

Hopefully he is just in the sin bin for a while and not banned for good, because the old beagle is a valuable contributor, but not the Beagle of the last few weeks.

Would be a pretty bland and pointless forum without the critical, insightful, articulate, gloating, grating comments of the likes of Beagle.

[clearasmud]

It might do him good, I like Beagle but he has spun out of control in the last week or Two. I know these forums are meant to be fun, but they have a serious side too, and many people were suffering with A2s downgrade.
The last thing they need is repeated posts from someone taking pleasure in the misfortune of others.

Hopefully he is just in the sin bin for a while and not banned for good, because the old beagle is a valuable contributor, but not the Beagle of the last few weeks.
No we need honest, unguarded posts from smart people like Beagle.

[Old mate]

Bring back B

[iceman]

It might do him good, I like Beagle but he has spun out of control in the last week or Two. I know these forums are meant to be fun, but they have a serious side too, and many people were suffering with A2s downgrade.
The last thing they need is repeated posts from someone taking pleasure in the misfortune of others.

Hopefully he is just in the sin bin for a while and not banned for good, because the old beagle is a valuable contributor, but not the Beagle of the last few weeks.

I share your view ratkin. Beagle has been a great contributor and continues to be but his ruthless personal attacks and digs on many posters in the last few weeks have been beneath him and undermine his much good work. I hope he uses the festive season and his much touted Cristian values to reflect. I wish him and all other posters a happy festive season.

[GR8DAY]

Sit Beagle, sit. There's a good boy.

[iceman]

DELETED DELETED Double up

[RTM]

It might do him good, I like Beagle but he has spun out of control in the last week or Two. I know these forums are meant to be fun, but they have a serious side too, and many people were suffering with A2s downgrade.
The last thing they need is repeated posts from someone taking pleasure in the misfortune of others.

Hopefully he is just in the sin bin for a while and not banned for good, because the old beagle is a valuable contributor, but not the Beagle of the last few weeks.


I share your view ratkin. Beagle has been a great contributor and continues to be but his ruthless personal attacks and digs on many posters in the last few weeks have been beneath him and undermine his much good work. I hope he uses the festive season and his much touted Cristian values to reflect. I wish him and all other posters a happy festive season.

I agree with you both. I disagree with him (and others) on a few things, recently especially over the stance with respect to companies handing back the wage subsidies. But I didn't need to be told over and over and over again about how I was wrong. You know...I may in fact be correct and Beagle (and others) repetition and insistence on getting the last word in did not make him more correct than I. It annoyed me, I chose to simply move on and not escalate things.

I hope he's ok....recent posts were somewhat out of character. At his best he makes useful contributions and has helped with my investments, as have many posters, and I look forward to him returning in the New Year with a different focus.

Hope you all have a good Christmas / New Year break.

[Biscuit]

......I chose to simply move on and not escalate things.....

hmmm, have you really moved on if you are raising it again? Arguments only annoy me when the other side is illogical or right.

[alokdhir]

After reading many posts here for few months now ...I found out that many's views turned out to be incorrect and few had correct calls about SP path of ATM

For me personally I was in the majority camp as valued KFL's judgement more then anyone here ...moment I read in their last newsletter that they reduced position in ATM made me switch camps and I exited all my position at a loss ...Minority was right and SP of ATM went the way they were predicting in many of their posts here while majority shooed them away all the time ....

So we need divergent views to have equal freedom of expression as time lets u decide which view prevailed .

Enjoying other people's misery is unpardonable sin against humanity

[Waltzing]

caveat emptor. Mr S does not seem to post on this stock.

[porkandpuha]

A contrarian view on A2 is not what made Beagles comments unpopular. They were a necessary part of a robust debate.

It was the personal attacks, the need to be right at all costs, the schoolyard popularity contests and the sulking.

Hopefully with a bit of down time he can finally realise all that, and we can all get back to discussing the future of A2 without the crap.

[carrom74]

Let’s move on... just heard from a friend about NZ herald brokers picks for 2021. Three brokering firms have picked A2.That’s a good start for the new year!

[dompf]

A contrarian view on A2 is not what made Beagles comments unpopular. They were a necessary part of a robust debate.

It was the personal attacks, the need to be right at all costs, the schoolyard popularity contests and the sulking.

Hopefully with a bit of down time he can finally realise all that, and we can all get back to discussing the future of A2 without the crap.

Beagle’s a legend, he shares so much of his knowledge here and he’s helped myself be better and I’m sure many others.

Hopefully he’s unbanned very soon as I value all his insights.

[Chinesekiwi]

Bring back Beagle - I love the vibrancy he brings and he offers insights I’m not smart enough to have.

Cool down periods may be ok time to time but I miss B already.

[Snow Leopard]

12168

A banned Beagle is for Life, not just for Christmas.

Meanwhile back on the subject of A2 Milk.....

[CD_CHCH]

Beagle’s a legend, he shares so much of his knowledge here and he’s helped myself be better and I’m sure many others.

Hopefully he’s unbanned very soon as I value all his insights.

I agree. Beagle freely shares his knowledge and is happy to answer queries from those of us who don't have his wisdom or experience. This forum would be a poorer place without him and the many other posters who are happy to share and educate others.

Sure not everyone agrees with everything that is posted here (and yes sometimes boundaries do get pushed a bit) but without differing opinions what a boring place this would be...

[Dlownz]

This forum is a amazing place to learn and share ideas. But we all need to remember not to be keyboard warriors. We all have reasons behind why we want the company's we invest in to go up. Maybe some have reasons for the shares to come down.
Many times I have read posts and started replying aggressively but realised before clicking "post reply" to delete the message as it gives no helpful insight into anything. Yes I speculate but don't we all.
I enjoy the insight of Beagle and others and its value on a site like this.
We all need to take a look at ourselves and our behaviour at times.
I have my own opinion on Atm as well as all the company's I invest in. Right or wrong they are just opinions and we all have to decide ourselves.
Disclaimer. I have not dipped my toes in with atm.

[Snoopy]

caveat emptor. Mr S does not seem to post on this stock.


If you look back on this thread far enough you will find I have posted here more than enough times to make me look foolish :-).

However, since it is a period for reflection, I will write a short treatise on why I haven't invested in ATM, which is not meant to be a lecture on why anyone else shouldn't be invested. In short it hasn't suited my own investment style for the following reasons:

1/ I don't like investing in shares where there is no profit being made. This reason, as far as ATM goes is now historical. But in the early days there was huge expectation built into the share price before the company proved itself.

2/ I don't like investing in a company when I don't know how management will address the inevitable 'speed wobbles' of growth. Many investors assume that a growth company will keep growing at an ever increasing rate along a smooth growth curve. IME growth is never that simple and changing expectations of growth can hurt the investor more than any actual levelling off of the growth curve. The current profit downgrade is an example of this.

3/ I don't like investing in a share that is largely dependent on one market when I don't know that market well. Profit wise ATM is currently a Chinese market one trick pony. Yes I know about their early success in the fresh milk market in Australia. But any profits here have been dwarfed by the success of infant formula in Australia (where the daigou shifts much IF to China) and the Infant Formula sales through more conventional channels to China. My investment in US listed Yum China is gradually filling in my knowledge gaps in this area.

4/ I like to buy my shares with a margin of safety. To work that out, I prefer to see a longer operating trading history than ATM has. With such an attitude I miss out on all the great growth stories from first float. But I also miss all the growth stories that don't go so well.

5/ Lastly I hear the words of Buffett ringing in my ears. These are along the lines of if you don't understand an investment to your satisfaction then don't invest. Or in baseball lingo.

"There is no need to swing at every pitch."

One day I may have the confidence to invest in ATM. But I haven't reached that point on my personal investment path.

SNOOPY

[winner69]

Piss poor weather and cricket boring as and the races not that exciting so why not play around with a A2 valuations model

My sales forecast for the next few years below in chart below. A blend of historical growth rate decay rates. analyst forecasts and of course an assessment of factors impacting A2 - in other words some maths and a lot of guesses

Extrapolating from 2023 into the futures and more (calculated guesses about margins and expenses etc) I get a DCF valuation of $16.37 using a discount rate of 10% (my base case). Lower the discount rate I could it up to $20 plus.

So this analyst says BUY - 12 month target $18.01

[Biscuit]

If you look back on this thread far enough you will find I have posted here more than enough times to make me look foolish :-).

However, since it is a period for reflection, I will write a short treatise on why I haven't invested in ATM, which is not meant to be a lecture on why anyone else shouldn't be invested. In short it hasn't suited my own investment style for the following reasons:

1/ I don't like investing in shares where there is no profit being made. This reason, as far as ATM goes is now historical. But in the early days there was huge expectation built into the share price before the company proved itself.

2/ I don't like investing in a company when I don't know how management will address the inevitable 'speed wobbles' of growth. Many investors assume that a growth company will keep growing at an ever increasing rate along a smooth growth curve. IME growth is never that simple and changing expectations of growth can hurt the investor more than any actual levelling off of the growth curve. The current profit downgrade is an example of this.

3/ I don't like investing in a share that is largely dependent on one market when I don't know that market well. Profit wise ATM is currently a Chinese market one trick pony. Yes I know about their early success in the fresh milk market in Australia. But any profits here have been dwarfed by the success of infant formula in Australia (where the daigou shifts much IF to China) and the Infant Formula sales through more conventional channels to China. My investment in US listed Yum China is gradually filling in my knowledge gaps in this area.

4/ I like to buy my shares with a margin of safety. To work that out, I prefer to see a longer operating trading history than ATM has. With such an attitude I miss out on all the great growth stories from first float. But I also miss all the growth stories that don't go so well.

5/ Lastly I hear the words of Buffett ringing in my ears. These are along the lines of if you don't understand an investment to your satisfaction then don't invest. Or in baseball lingo.

"There is no need to swing at every pitch."

One day I may have the confidence to invest in ATM. But I haven't reached that point on my personal investment path.

SNOOPY

With that list of exclusions Snoopy, if you were playing baseball, you'd be out every time. To get a home run, you have to swing at something.

[Snoopy]

With that list of exclusions Snoopy, if you were playing baseball, you'd be out every time. To get a home run, you have to swing at something.


I think Buffett is happy if he comes across one or two new investment prospects in a year. So maybe this is where the baseball analogy breaks down. But to carry the analogy a bit further anyway. At this stage in my investment career, I don't need to hit home runs. I am happy to bang the ball into mid field and scramble around the diamond base by base. That doesn't mean I lower my standards at the cost of investment mediocrity. But I am happy to build up my run total is a measured slow and unspectacular way.

Looking back I guess my best home run was Restaurant Brands. I could never have dreamed it would have been as successful as it turned out. But I never thought of that as 'going for the big one'. It was just as much a rerating of the business, not just the underlying business performance that made my returns so spectacular. I had no idea the business would be rerated as it was. I like to think it was skill building up my holding in the years when RBD was unloved. But in truth I think I had a fair amount of luck with the market ratio rerating that I could not have predicted at the outset that played into my hand.

SNOOPY

[Biscuit]

.... However, since it is a period for reflection, I will write a short treatise on why I haven't invested in ATM ...
SNOOPY

You are a way more careful (better) investor than me Snoopy. I bought ATM at about $18, $15, and then again several lots at around $14. The classic falling knife buying we shouldn't ever do. And I have "lost" several thousand dollars over the last month or so, and may lose more. I don't care about that for a couple of reasons: ATM is less than 1% of my investments (large % holdings of my portfolio got there by their own merits over many years growth); ultimately the value of ATM will depend on the growth success of the company which I still think is worth taking a punt on.

[Biscuit]

.....
Looking back I guess my best home run was Restaurant Brands. I could never have dreamed it would have been as successful as it turned out..... SNOOPY

Yes, I remember at the time you took a lot of stick on here for your investment in Restaurant Brands (I have been reincarnated on here before). You are kind-of making my point though, I think. There is something uncalculatable about which shares will fly. I have a number of home runs in my portfolio and I've had a few that blew up in my face. I don't do detailed analysis in the way you do - I don't think I am capable or have the temperament for doing that. I doubt I would be better off overall for taking your approach but possibly I would.

[winner69]

Billy Beane of A’s and Moneyball fame reckoned getting on base (even if walked) was how you won more games than average.....and recruited accordingly getting players like that on the cheap because other clubs didn’t want them. One of their ‘stars’ was one short fat guy who couldn’t run ....but his record at getting on base was pretty good.

Moneyball by Michael Lewis almost a value investors guide ...buy cheap and get great value,

[Biscuit]

Billy Beane of A’s and Moneyball fame reckoned getting on base (even if walked) was how you won more games than average.....

I agree with that. Snoopy misrepresents his baseball strategy - he is really trying to hit home runs only, hence his focus on using infinite care selecting the right ball to hit.

[winner69]

Weathers getting ****tier and cricket ain’t exciting so did a few more A2 DCF scenarios.

Key is sales growth ......3 scenarios in chart below ...takes your pick as to what you think is about reasonable and see the DCF value.

I didn’t do a scenario of sales growth never really recovering ....a real slow growth case would be about 5 bucks

[ratkin]

Billy Beane of A’s and Moneyball fame reckoned getting on base (even if walked) was how you won more games than average.....and recruited accordingly getting players like that on the cheap because other clubs didn’t want them. One of their ‘stars’ was one short fat guy who couldn’t run ....but his record at getting on base was pretty good.

Moneyball by Michael Lewis almost a value investors guide ...buy cheap and get great value,

Great book, as a Fantasy Baseball nut it is one of the best books out there, another you should try is Fantasyland by Sam Walker.

I would say most long term investors on the NZ market are happy just getting on base and accumulating runs that way, going for blue sky home runs is very hit and miss, and A2 is currently in that bracket. Right now it is a great trading stock, but not a steady investment.

[Brain]

Yes, I remember at the time you took a lot of stick on here for your investment in Restaurant Brands (I have been reincarnated on here before). You are kind-of making my point though, I think. There is something uncalculatable about which shares will fly. I have a number of home runs in my portfolio and I've had a few that blew up in my face. I don't do detailed analysis in the way you do - I don't think I am capable or have the temperament for doing that. I doubt I would be better off overall for taking your approach but possibly I would.

That is generally my experience with and attitude to high growth stocks. They defy analysis - too many variables and are affected by events that seem to come out of the left field. Best to rely on gut instinct. I suspect that the guys that do analyse these stocks subconsciously bias the inputs to verify their gut instinct.

With A2 I was in at 80c and out at sub $2 average. I never looked at the share much after that. A2 could have been a huge pay day but I have done well out of a number of other shares and look forward to many successes in the future.

[winner69]

Would be remiss of me not to do a DCF for a probable case - like downgrades always come in 3s, so 2021 is gong to even worse that they've said, 2022 will be just as bad as 2021 and the good times will never return because of blah blah etc etc

The sales in this case shown on chart in RED and gives a DCF valuation of $6.01

There you are A2 on my workings is 'worth' today somewhere between $6.01 and $18.35 (and if I did a supercharged model nearly $21.00)

Brian said earlier I suspect that the guys that do analyse these stocks subconsciously bias the inputs to verify their gut instinct ....my gut instinct is the $16.88 valuation - so at $12 odd today a good safety margin I reckon

[winner69]

Great book, as a Fantasy Baseball nut it is one of the best books out there, another you should try is Fantasyland by Sam Walker.

I would say most long term investors on the NZ market are happy just getting on base and accumulating runs that way, going for blue sky home runs is very hit and miss, and A2 is currently in that bracket. Right now it is a great trading stock, but not a steady investment.

The Numbers Game by Chris Anderson / David Sally is a cool book about football 'data' (with an English focus) you might enjoy

Thre's a fascinating bit about Stoke City who'll never be champions but helps itself avoid relegation by wasting time during set pieces. When it has a throw-in deep in the opposition’s defensive zone, the long-throw specialist Rory Delap trots forward, waiting for the ball to be tossed to him, and toweling it off and running time off the clock. The long throws create goal-scoring chances but also deny the ball to the opposition. Stoke’s players might not beat you, but you can lose to them they say

[winner69]

..............

For me personally I was in the majority camp as valued KFL's judgement more then anyone here ...moment I read in their last newsletter that they reduced position in ATM made me switch camps and I exited all my position at a loss ...Minority was right and SP of ATM went the way they were predicting in many of their posts here while majority shooed them away all the time ....



Hi alokdhir - looks like Kingfish sold another 500,000 or so shares last week

After buying up big (and averaging down) from June to November. But since November 30th their holding has gone from $62m to about the $38m they still have left.

[Balance]

Bring back Beagle - I love the vibrancy he brings and he offers insights I’m not smart enough to have.

Cool down periods may be ok time to time but I miss B already.


Beagle’s a legend, he shares so much of his knowledge here and he’s helped myself be better and I’m sure many others.

Hopefully he’s unbanned very soon as I value all his insights.

Pleased to see some of the silent majority posting their thoughts - ST would be a far far lesser place if the likes of Beagle are not part of the forum.

[Balance]

https://www.shortman.com.au/stock?q=A2M

Shorters covered 6.9m shares on the day that ATM announced its second profit downgrade. So there was price support from shooters locking in their gains.

Interesting to see how much many more shares have been bought to cover shorts in the 3.5 days before the Christmas break.

[Balance]

For those looking for a positive today - Morgans, Australia's equivalent of Forbar or Craigs, updates its valuation and view of A2M :

A2 Milk Company Ltd (ASX: A2M)

According to a note out of Morgans, its analysts have retained their add rating but trimmed the price target on this infant formula company’s shares to $12.20. This follows a2 Milk Company’s earnings guidance downgrade due to weakness in the daigou channel. While the broker acknowledges that investor sentiment will be impacted by the uncertainty it is facing, it takes comfort in the company’s strong performance in mainland China. And although it has downgraded its earnings forecasts by almost a third for the coming years, the broker still sees value in its shares at the current level. The a2 Milk share price ended the week at $10.95.

[Poet]

I'm another vote for bring back Beagle, he does provide some interesting and informative perspectives. Let's off start the new year on a positive note.

[alokdhir]

Hi alokdhir - looks like Kingfish sold another 500,000 or so shares last week

After buying up big (and averaging down) from June to November. But since November 30th their holding has gone from $62m to about the $38m they still have left.


That makes me think that they have lost interest in ATM ...slowly they may go out fully ...for me thats very negative for future of ATM SP ...

[Gunner]

Why did beagle get banned?

[Balance]

Let’s move on... just heard from a friend about NZ herald brokers picks for 2021. Three brokering firms have picked A2.That’s a good start for the new year!

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/brokers-picks-the-hot-stocks-to-watch-in-2021/PP5IJYNE6YMQIHEM5DIUQAEYCA/

paywalled

Would not read too much into that - 2 brokers out of 6 picked ATM for 2021 vs 5 brokers out of 6 for 2020, making it the overwhelming favorite for 2020!

As an aside, interesting to note that not one of the brokers picked the top performing stock of 2020 : 800%+.

[Balance]

Why did beagle get banned?

Complaints from one or several of the ATM shareholders/posters?

[777]

Complaints from one or several of the ATM shareholders/posters?


Vince is able to make up his own mind.

[Balance]

Vince is able to make up his own mind.

Of course he does - normally after he receives complaints from posters.

Which is one way moderation of any forum should work.

[Ruby]

https://portal.milfordasset.com/new...-sights-of-cashed-up-private-equity-investors (https://portal.milfordasset.com/news/business-desk/a2-milk-may-be-in-the-sights-of-cashed-up-private-equity-investors)
A2 Milk may be in the sights of cashed up private equity investors

Rebecca Howard

rebecca@businessdesk.co.nz
Tue, 29 Dec 2020
Cashed-up private equity players will be on the prowl in 2021 as they look to get the biggest bang for their buck, with A2 Milk a potential target.......

[Jack]

Mr Moderator

I am assuming the banning of Mr Beagle is some kind of joke in poor taste.
If not, please consider that this forum needs Mr Beagle more than he needs us. Amho

[Blue Skies]

Mr Moderator

I am assuming the banning of Mr Beagle is some kind of joke in poor taste.
If not, please consider that this forum needs Mr Beagle more than he needs us. Amho


Jack you might want to choose your words more carefully.

Two things stand out, 1) some ATM holders suffered huge losses recently at least on paper, and 2) Vince does not put temp bans on posters without good reason & usually only as a last resort.
We need to show some respect and restraint towards those who are suffering big losses, some of the repetitive posts though possibly unintended, could have been interpreted as verging on gloating & scorn.

And just in case you jump to wrong conclusion, I only have a tiny (1%) holding of ATM just out of interest more than anything.
And have never complained about anyone on ST.

[Gunner]

If you get offended by anything beagle said then you are a p****y

[BlackPeter]

It appears beagle is not anymore a subscribed member to share trader (I can't see his name anymore in the members list).

I have no knowledge of the underlying reasons and whether it was him or the moderator making this decision,
but whatever it is - it is a sad day for share trader.

Yes, beagle used to be loud and sometimes potentially somewhat abrasive, but his knowledge and his willingness to share spot on research was one of the reasons (not just) for me to visit share trader on a regular basis and discuss issues with him.

Whatever happened - I do hope that beagle or his reincarnation of beagle will come back soon. Roger, we miss you!

[iceman]

Vince owns this website and from time to time enforces the rules with temporary bans, so lets just back off and let him run his business. Beagle and all other users accept the rules when we sign up. Beagle is enjoying the festive season with his family and having a breather from ST. I am hopeful he will return when he is ready. I suggest we bring this thread back to ATM.

[Brain]

Vince owns this website and from time to time enforces the rules with temporary bans, so lets just back off and let him run his business. Beagle and all other uses accept the rules when we sign up. Beagle is enjoying the festive season with his family and having a breather from ST. I am hopeful he will return when he is ready. I suggest we bring this thread back to ATM.

This is a great website and Vince does a great job - thanks Vince. I look forward to Beagle returning.

[davflaws]

I hope Roger is at sea with his missus and that he is "lurking" from time to time. As far as I know, Vince has never banned anyone permanently, and I hope when beagle's ban expires, he will return - dried off, refreshed and smelling wonderful.

[winner69]

Solid recovery of A2 shareprice continues

Today’s close 1222 is 17% above recent low

Going well I reckon

[percy]

I hope Roger is at sea with his missus and that he is "lurking" from time to time. As far as I know, Vince has never banned anyone permanently, and I hope when beagle's ban expires, he will return - dried off, refreshed and smelling wonderful.

A number of people have been banned permanently.
Others have not been able to sign in.
A good few have received temporary bans.
While the most knowledgeable poster ever ,Phraedus, left because of harassment from knockers.

[Baa_Baa]

A number of people have been banned permanently.
Others have not been able to sign in.
A good few have received temporary bans.
While the most knowledgeable poster ever ,Phraedus, left because of harassment from knockers.

Agree, so miss Phraedrus, an inspiration getting me into TA.

Roger has a two week holiday with right to return, it’s up to him to choose. It might have been on the nose to point the bone at Couta they way he did but I think he knows that.

I hope he comes back as well, it’s up to him to decide.

[Brain]

A number of people have been banned permanently.
Others have not been able to sign in.
A good few have received temporary bans.
While the most knowledgeable poster ever ,Phraedus, left because of harassment from knockers.

Phraedus was before my time. I do remember reading and enjoying Sparky the Clown’s posts. He disappeared all of a sudden. I am sure he wasn’t banned as he was always a gentleman from memory. I do wonder what happened to him.

The only thing that I do not like about sharetrader is that once a person leaves or is banned all their posts disappear with them. A lot of good work gets lost which I think is a great pity.

[percy]

Phraedus was before my time. I do remember reading and enjoying Sparky the Clown’s posts. He disappeared all of a sudden. I am sure he wasn’t banned as he was always a gentleman from memory. I do wonder what happened to him.

He remains a very successful investor.
Was an early [large] investor in PPH.
I think he left as he wanted to remain anonymous.
As you pointed out always a gentleman.
He helped me a lot [and others], and did a huge amount of research, including company visits to talk to managements.

ps.A lot of former posters have left, as they have taken positions with fund managers and the like,and it would be a conflict of interest to keep posting here.One started his own fund,and it has grown to be one of NZ leading funds.[He would most probably correct me, and say it is NZ's best fund.]

pps.Dr.Who was another poster who comes to mind.Posters would write a long detailed post and Dr.Who would reply "It's
a dog."He kept buying Elders in Aussie.It just kept falling.He kept buying,and buying and buying.Think he got sick of every one telling him he was mad and Elders were "a dog",so he left ST.Well I think he just kept buying Elders, until he finally drove the price up.Guess he had the last laugh when Elders came right,and he made a fortune..

[Brain]

He remains a very successful investor.
Was an early [large] investor in PPH.
I think he left as he wanted to remain anonymous.
As you pointed out always a gentleman.
He helped me a lot [and others], and did a huge amount of research, including company visits to talk to managements.

ps.A lot of former posters have left, as they have taken positions with fund managers and the like,and it would be a conflict of interest to keep posting here.One started his own fund,and it has grown to be one of NZ leading funds.[He would most probably correct me, and say it is NZ's best fund.]

pps.Dr.Who was another poster who comes to mind.Posters would write a long detailed post and Dr.Who would reply "It's
a dog."He kept buying Elders in Aussie.It just kept falling.He kept buying,and buying and buying.Think he got sick of every one telling him he was mad and Elders were "a dog",so he left ST.Well I think he just kept buying Elders, until he finally drove the price up.Guess he had the last laugh when Elders came right,and he made a fortune..

Your ps about posters becoming fund managers comes as no surprise to me. When I first found sharetrader 7 odd years ago it became apparent to me very quickly that some of the posters had a very deep understanding of the sharemarket. I followed up a number of very good leads from posters and made some very good gains. I remember you Percy being an advocate for Heartland bank very early on which I made good money on. I thank you for your effort with that.

[Waltzing]

winner(n), "Solid recovery of A2 shareprice continues"

provides an interesting example to follow and im sure O'Niel would love to chart this one out.

So far the TA has followed an almost perfect chart to news relationship. 10 has so much support in the chart it was nice to see it bounce back up.

10 was clearly a bottom on the Chart unless someone else thinks it should have been lower and our eye sight is poor with the little ruler lines..

[bull....]

He remains a very successful investor.
Was an early [large] investor in PPH.
I think he left as he wanted to remain anonymous.
As you pointed out always a gentleman.
He helped me a lot [and others], and did a huge amount of research, including company visits to talk to managements.

ps.A lot of former posters have left, as they have taken positions with fund managers and the like,and it would be a conflict of interest to keep posting here.One started his own fund,and it has grown to be one of NZ leading funds.[He would most probably correct me, and say it is NZ's best fund.]

pps.Dr.Who was another poster who comes to mind.Posters would write a long detailed post and Dr.Who would reply "It's
a dog."He kept buying Elders in Aussie.It just kept falling.He kept buying,and buying and buying.Think he got sick of every one telling him he was mad and Elders were "a dog",so he left ST.Well I think he just kept buying Elders, until he finally drove the price up.Guess he had the last laugh when Elders came right,and he made a fortune..

agree years ago there were quite a number of very good posters some that i remember

phaedrus very good for teaching t/a to the people
stowyk cant remeber if i spelt it right very good fundamental analysis
brother coy character and predicted the metals boom in aus and the crash in 2007
arco very good t/a person as well
many more even myself lol but it was hard to stand out as so many good posters back then.

[winner69]

agree years ago there were quite a number of very good posters some that i remember

.......
many more even myself lol but it was hard to stand out as so many good posters back then.

Yep mate - there's been me and you :t_up:

I've always appreciated what the B-Team has offered over the years.

Yes, Bull, Balance and Beagle are truly a great team (even though their views are often quite diverse but diversity of views is a great thing)

[Waltzing]

Milk might be the drink of choice right now but water is really going to be the roaring bull market of the future.

[x2rider]

Milk might be the drink of choice right now but water is really going to be the roaring bull market of the future.

The film Tank Girl predicted it

[winner69]

Milk might be the drink of choice right now but water is really going to be the roaring bull market of the future.

The Just Water man Falkenstein has learned, man cannot live on water alone.

[Waltzing]

bread, water and fruit, some eggs, fishes, and fake meat...

waters is where its at. NZ is not yet a water investment portfolio target. Deserts for power and over populated continents for water.

The locals are starting to fight in the courts to control overseas control of local water supplies. The locals just lost a case against the china mob.

[Balance]

bread, water and fruit, some eggs, fishes, and fake meat...

waters is where its at. NZ is not yet a water investment portfolio target. Deserts for power and over populated continents for water.

The locals are starting to fight in the courts to control overseas control of local water supplies. The locals just lost a case against the china mob.

If anyone or knows anyone who is interested, I can refer a couple of established water bottling & export companies for sale. Currently owned by NZers and been on the market for years.

Serious buyers only - businesses are loss making and require further capital injection. Unlimited access to water.

The green eyed monsters in NZ who have never created any jobs or put in any risk capital want the water to stay in the ground even though billions of gallons are flushed out to sea every day.

[Waltzing]

We did not say invest in water in NZ at the moment. Water related investments on populated continents have increased in value. NZ does not have a water problem yet although farming operations here will argue the problem is here already. Water is only just becoming a charged for resource but is not controlled in NZ by private companies yet.

Our investments recently in water are not in NZ. At some point the NZX just runs out of investible companies with big futures.

[tomm]

:t_up:China Promulgates 2021 Tariff Plan, Reducing Rates for Special Infant Formula and Dairy Products
In 2021, the provisional tariff of some special infant formula (such as infant formula for premature infants) will be reduced from 5% to 0%, and that of whey protein powder and lactoferrin will be lowered from 10% to 0%.Conventional tariff rates for dairy products from Australia, Costa Rica, Georgia, Switzerland, Peru and South Korea will be further reduced. Conventional tariff rates of the APTA will also be applied to some products imported from Mongolia from Jan. 1, 2021.:t_up:

https://food.chemlinked.com/news/food-news/china-promulgates-2021-tariff-plan-reducing-rates-for-special-infant-formula-and-dairy-products

[Justin]

:t_up:China Promulgates 2021 Tariff Plan, Reducing Rates for Special Infant Formula and Dairy Products
In 2021, the provisional tariff of some special infant formula (such as infant formula for premature infants) will be reduced from 5% to 0%, and that of whey protein powder and lactoferrin will be lowered from 10% to 0%.Conventional tariff rates for dairy products from Australia, Costa Rica, Georgia, Switzerland, Peru and South Korea will be further reduced. Conventional tariff rates of the APTA will also be applied to some products imported from Mongolia from Jan. 1, 2021.:t_up:

https://food.chemlinked.com/news/food-news/china-promulgates-2021-tariff-plan-reducing-rates-for-special-infant-formula-and-dairy-products

is that means more competitors？

[tomm]

is that means more competitors？
Not sure about competitors, but sure about the dairy's products dependency from China to oversea countries.

[Biscuit]

..... even though billions of gallons are flushed out to sea every day.

If billions of litres of fresh water were not flushed out to sea every day there would be no estuaries etc, and aquifers would be infiltrated with saltwater.

[Balance]

If billions of litres of fresh water were not flushed out to sea every day there would be no estuaries etc, and aquifers would be infiltrated with saltwater.

Tell that to the Canterbury farmers who are drawing billions of gallons of water everyday for irrigation from the aquifers.

[tomm]

copied from China website as the following. NZ was listed at the first place.

"The further tax cuts are the free trade agreements between China and New Zealand, Peru, Costa Rica, Switzerland, Iceland, Pakistan, Chile, Australia, South Korea, Georgia and the Asia Pacific Trade Agreement."

[Biscuit]

... billions of gallons of water .....

Gallons, are you an American Balance, nothing wrong with that, just curious? You argued that water could be taken because water was being "wasted", I just pointed out that is not a logical argument and your last comment is not relevant.

[Balance]

Gallons, are you an American Balance, nothing wrong with that, just curious? You argued that water could be taken because water was being "wasted", I just pointed out that is not a logical argument and your last comment is not relevant.

And I am in agreement with you on that point - about billions being flushed out to sea as a matter of course.

There is a need to highlight the fact that water sources are replenishing if they are properly monitored and managed.

[Balance]

is that means more competitors？

Yup - NZ IF has enjoyed zero tariff under the FTA with China so other countries are now going to enjoy the same benefit.

[Biscuit]

And I am in agreement with you on that point - about billions being flushed out to sea as a matter of course.

There is a need to highlight the fact that water sources are replenishing if they are properly monitored and managed.

The devil is in the detail. Firstly, despite decades of research we still don't have a full picture of, for example, the Canterbury aquifers. How much water can we take without having a significant negative impact and how will that resource change over the long term. What negative impacts are we comfortable with (and in Canterbury many people will already point to existing problems, eg. drying up rivers). How much of a buffer should we build in and how do you manage new and existing rights especially if/when the resource contracts. My view is we need to be more conservative than we have been, do the science first, respect the natural systems and common ownership values and always build in massive buffers.

[Waltzing]

"Canterbury " south island of NZ is so valuable and really must be cared for with an ever increasing vigilance.

The Chinese consumer really does seem to like made in NZ.

They seem to trust and one of NZ's best horticultural growers north of auckland is i think chinese.

Second generation chinese born here will create that link between the two countries.

Cultural ties will surely be the key to farther trade and Brand Kiwi should be the goal.

[Balance]

https://www.fool.com.au/2020/12/30/what-next-for-the-a2-milk-asxa2m-share-price/

‘Big brokers were surprised with the magnitude of a2’s earnings downgrade and were reserved with their new price targets.

On 21 December, Citi retained its sell rating with a price target of $9.50, while Morgan Stanley lowered its price target from $12.40 to $11.00.’

[tomm]

Oh, not the Motley Fool ... :eek2:

[Balance]

https://www.shortman.com.au/stock?q=A2M

Shorters adding on to their position rather than continue to cover.

Interesting.

[Balance]

A third downgrade is now a strong probability with a new CEO wanting to wipe the slate clean so to speak after he takes over.

"Morgan Stanley believes a broader change is now required to restore growth settings for the respective channels, and lacks conviction regarding the company's mitigation strategies and/or whether the latest update signals the end of the downgrade cycle, given a new CEO will start in January."

[Baa_Baa]

https://www.shortman.com.au/stock?q=A2M

Shorters adding on to their position rather than continue to cover.

Interesting.

Punters should exercise caution reading this Shortman data being 4 days lagging, in fact the current link is as at 22 December.

[longy]

Punters should exercise caution reading this Shortman data being 4 days lagging, in fact the current link is as at 22 December.

Gross Short is reducing I think. Form memory the gross short was higher. On the 24th is was 0.15% and on 30th it was 0.09%

[davflaws]

Tell that to the Canterbury farmers who are drawing billions of gallons of water everyday for irrigation from the aquifers.
It is very hard to tell Canterbury farmers anything (particularly the ones who have invested in irrigation and intensification) but some hydrologists are very concerned about the condition of the aquifers and their ongoing ability to support the predicted level of growth in drawoff.

[dobby41]

It is very hard to tell Canterbury farmers anything (particularly the ones who have invested in irrigation and intensification) but some hydrologists are very concerned about the condition of the aquifers and their ongoing ability to support the predicted level of growth in drawoff.

Not to mention the nitrogen (and other nasties) that leaches into the ground water and pollutes Christchurch's town water.

[Balance]

https://www.news.com.au/national/politics/china-wants-relations-with-australia-back-on-track-as-early-as-possible/news-story/ed185485c8206ec5537433e3685bc751

China wants relations with Oz to normalise.

[ratkin]

It is very hard to tell Canterbury farmers anything (particularly the ones who have invested in irrigation and intensification) but some hydrologists are very concerned about the condition of the aquifers and their ongoing ability to support the predicted level of growth in drawoff.

Nothing changes, was just reading an account of someone who looked after the aqueducts in ancient Rome, they were having the exact same problems 2000 years ago, although their irrigation system was better than in Canterbury

[Ggcc]

https://www.news.com.au/national/politics/china-wants-relations-with-australia-back-on-track-as-early-as-possible/news-story/ed185485c8206ec5537433e3685bc751

China wants relations with Oz to normalise.
That is very positive for both countries.

[Getty]

Pleased to see some of the silent majority posting their thoughts - ST would be a far far lesser place if the likes of Beagle are not part of the forum.

Life is like a box of chocolates.
Sometimes tho, it resembles the first Beaurepaires advert. ( still on You tube)

You can be trucking along nicely, then along comes Vince, activated by some roadhogs.

End result, banishment to Colditz.

While in there, a recidivist jailbird 'Eagle was put in the next cell.
We spent the time on such subjects as love thy neighbour, and judge not lest ye be judged.
It got too much for the guards when he remonstrated "do unto others as you would have done to you", so he got carted off to the JWI supplied cooler, muttering something about casting first stones, but as I dont like the Rolling Stones, I didnt pay much attention.

I sang "Release Me" by Engelbert instead.

He also mentioned an old coot, who was 'trying to get outa here'.

Ballance sent in some leftover ham & chicken roll for Xmas.
It had a hacksaw concealed inside, but as I'm more used to weilding finely honed German scalpels, I left it for Jim Duggan, or some other bloke to wrestle.

While incarcerated, my contribution to the war effort was a very healthy profit on ABA, and the IRON deBARKle via Cue,

Happy New Year to most.

Dr JPG.

[Scrunch]

Pleased to see some of the silent majority posting their thoughts - ST would be a far far lesser place if the likes of Beagle are not part of the forum.

Agreed Beagle has made a number of great contributions on this forum, although one of the things Beagle posted did kinda annoy me. He claimed that because he had a zero holding in one of the largest market cap companies on the NZX, he was a neutral voice. He also concurrently suggested the benefits of a diversified portfolio. If he wasn't a smart pup I'd have said he missed the point, but because he is a smart pup, I suspect he decided to selectively ignore the following issue.

A market weight diversified portfolio will have a ATM holding (and also holdings in the other NZX big cap's like FPH, AIA & MEL). Knowing about ATM and choosing to have a zero holding is effectively taking a negative position in ATM. Its not as negative position as shorting ATM, but its but still negative. Having taken a negative position, you like shorters will want ATM to go down, or at least not up as quickly as other shares.

Disc Hold ATM, but only a modest holding. No FPH, AIA or MEL.

[jimdog31]

Agreed Beagle has made a number of great contributions on this forum, although one of the things Beagle posted did kinda annoy me. He claimed that because he had a zero holding in one of the largest market cap companies on the NZX, he was a neutral voice. He also concurrently suggested the benefits of a diversified portfolio. If he wasn't a smart pup I'd have said he missed the point, but because he is a smart pup, I suspect he decided to selectively ignore the following issue.

A market weight diversified portfolio will have a ATM holding (and also holdings in the other NZX big cap's like FPH, AIA & MEL). Knowing about ATM and choosing to have a zero holding is effectively taking a negative position in ATM. Its not as negative position as shorting ATM, but its but still negative. Having taken a negative position, you like shorters will want ATM to go down, or at least not up as quickly as other shares.

Disc Hold ATM, but only a modest holding. No FPH, AIA or MEL.

Beagle did say on many occasions that he was exposed to ATM via his investment in kingfisher warrants (if I recall without going back) , so I believe that meant he wasnt contradicting his diversified portfolio theory.

Hope you feel less annoyed now 😉

[RTM]

Agreed Beagle has made a number of great contributions on this forum, although one of the things Beagle posted did kinda annoy me. He claimed that because he had a zero holding in one of the largest market cap companies on the NZX, he was a neutral voice. He also concurrently suggested the benefits of a diversified portfolio. If he wasn't a smart pup I'd have said he missed the point, but because he is a smart pup, I suspect he decided to selectively ignore the following issue.

A market weight diversified portfolio will have a ATM holding (and also holdings in the other NZX big cap's like FPH, AIA & MEL). Knowing about ATM and choosing to have a zero holding is effectively taking a negative position in ATM. Its not as negative position as shorting ATM, but its but still negative. Having taken a negative position, you like shorters will want ATM to go down, or at least not up as quickly as other shares.

Disc Hold ATM, but only a modest holding. No FPH, AIA or MEL.

Hmmm...I don't think that's a fair argument Scrunch. I have a pretty diversified portfolio...40 stocks, mostly NZ, a handful of Oz stocks, and I hold no ATM and have never held them. Not Spark or F&P or MFT either. I've never claimed it to be a "market weight diversified portfolio". can't recall Beagle using those words either.

All the best,
RTM

[winner69]

That makes me think that they have lost interest in ATM ...slowly they may go out fully ...for me thats very negative for future of ATM SP ...

For what’s it worth it appears Kingfish held their ground last week

Or maybe they were all on holiday and couldn’t be bothered doing anything

[Balance]

https://www.shortman.com.au/stock?q=A2M

Shorters continued to increase their position after the short covering on 18 December.

[causecelebre]

https://www.shortman.com.au/stock?q=A2M

Shorters continued to increase their position after the short covering on 18 December.

Four days out of date. Does anyone here know if the daily net positions are avail?

[alokdhir]

For what’s it worth it appears Kingfish held their ground last week

Or maybe they were all on holiday and couldn’t be bothered doing anything

Its now at number 5 position in their portfolio ...maybe on back burner ...longer term story for them .

MFT and IFT have done wonderfully well for them ...FPH slightly negative since Vaccine news out ... SUM also did well ...ATM most down in top 5 !!

Maybe future returns they are looking at FPH and ATM !!!

New Covid developments and worldwide market levels are little concerning ...but markets can remain irrational longer then participants solvent if going against the trend ...:p

[Waltzing]

Coal up in china, perhaps wine has also gone up? No new shouting ? could be a sign china does not really want this to go much farther. Things could slowly set relations back towards something a bit better than at present and that would be good for ATM.

[Balance]

Coal up in china, perhaps wine has also gone up? No new shouting ? could be a sign china does not really want this to go much farther. Things could slowly set relations back towards something a bit better than at present and that would be good for ATM.

Any resolution of the China trade sanctions & reduction of tensions against Australia will be positive for ATM.

Meantime, how is the market likely to assess ATM over the next 7 weeks or so until the interim results are announced in Feb 2021.

Good summation by Motley Fool, one of the biggest bulls of ATM right through until the recent past :

https://www.fool.com.au/2021/01/05/heres-why-the-a2-milk-asxa2m-share-price-was-hammered-in-2020/

"The a2 Milk share price could go either way in 2021 according to brokers.

However, where the company lands on its guidance range in FY 2021 is likely to have the biggest say in how its shares perform over the next 12 months."

[Balance]

Punters should exercise caution reading this Shortman data being 4 days lagging, in fact the current link is as at 22 December.

The trend is becoming clear regarding short positions :

https://www.shortman.com.au/stock?q=A2M

After the initial short-covering on the second downgrade announcement on 18 Dec, shorters are again building up their position.

6 consecutive days of increasing their position to 30th December and within 1.7m shares of the pre-second-downgrade position.

So who is going to get their backsides burnt in Feb!?

[bull....]

not only have we got a birth slump in china from covid also they are predicting a slump in births in the US

HOUSEHOLD PRODUCTS (https://www.cnbc.com/household-products/)Makers of diapers and baby formula brace for lower sales as pandemic leads to decline in births
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/16/consumer-companies-bracing-for-a-covid-baby-bust.html

[Timesurfer]

People locked in and there is a birth slump? This would be the first generation where that is the end result. Perhaps we are heading for extinction.
I am picking the shorters will be the ones with hot backsides in Feb.

[Mr Slothbear]

People locked in and there is a birth slump? This would be the first generation where that is the end result. Perhaps we are heading for extinction.
I am picking the shorters will be the ones with hot backsides in Feb.


there is a very real and noticeable declining fertility rate worldwide. I doubt covid is really having much of an impact besides a possible economically motivated short term blip but one would expect a corresponding rebound in the years after similar to ww1 and 2.

nevertheless I don’t see this hurting ATM as they continue to grow market share but there will be other traditional a1 milk players who get squeezed out.

in the years a ahead as subsaharan african populations boom and grow wealthier there will be good opportunity to shift focus to these markets

[Balance]

People locked in and there is a birth slump? This would be the first generation where that is the end result. Perhaps we are heading for extinction.
I am picking the shorters will be the ones with hot backsides in Feb.

Suspect they are counting on the new CEO coming in and attempting to wipe the slate clean with a third downgrade.

That's kinda what happens when you have a transition from one CEO in the midst of downgrades to another.

[Leftfield]

Suspect they are counting on the new CEO coming in and attempting to wipe the slate clean with a third downgrade.

My mom-in-law (bless her boots) always used to say deaths come in three's.

Lot's of talk in this thread about 'bad news' or 'downgrades' coming in 'three's."

Most things happen in three's.... they also happen in one's and two's.....and even four's.

Since the last ATM downgrade there has been good news of SML 'winning' their court case, plus good news of ATM confirming their purchase of Mataura Valley Milk. Ssoo some bad news followed by some good news. Ain't that interesting.

JMHO and for what it's worth I am not advocating buying ATM until we see evidence of a firm up-trend ..... then maybe uptrends and good news happen in threes too! ;)

[Balance]

My mom-in-law (bless her boots) always used to say deaths come in three's.

Lot's of talk in this thread about 'bad news' or 'downgrades' coming in 'three's."

Most things happen in three's.... they also happen in one's and two's.....and even four's.

Since the last ATM downgrade there has been good news of SML 'winning' their court case, plus good news of ATM confirming their purchase of Mataura Valley Milk. Ssoo some bad news followed by some good news. Ain't that interesting.

JMHO and for what it's worth I am not advocating buying ATM until we see evidence of a firm up-trend ..... then maybe uptrends and good news happen in threes too! ;)

Actually, good news from good companies come in multiples as they build on ever stronger foundation and their growing business base.

Let’s hope ATM is able to move to a multiple good news cycle after all the downgrades are done with.

[Leftfield]

Meanwhile BAU as A2 launches A2 powdered milk to support it's long life 'fresh' milk as it diversifies from reliance on IF in China.

12182

[dreamcatcher]

Meanwhile BAU as A2 launches A2 powdered milk to support it's long life 'fresh' milk as it diversifies from reliance on IF in China.

12182

Thanks for sharing LF looks perfect for milkshakes..............

[tomm]

This is how the short manipulate the price . No wonder the Sp was down on Weds 6/1.
Normally you will notice only around 2-800k shorts per day. but on Weds it was 2.2M shorted. Wondering if the shorts buy back what will the Sp be ?

Daily Gross Short Sales reported for 06-Jan-2021,
ASX Limited (ASX) & Chi-X Australia (CHI-X)A2M THE A2 MILK COMPANY LIMITED FPO NZ 2,269,460 742,606,937

[Balance]

This is how the short manipulate the price . No wonder the Sp was down on Weds 6/1.
Normally you will notice only around 2-800k shorts per day. but on Weds it was 2.2M shorted. Wondering if the shorts buy back what will the Sp be ?

Daily Gross Short Sales reported for 06-Jan-2021,
ASX Limited (ASX) & Chi-X Australia (CHI-X)A2M THE A2 MILK COMPANY LIMITED FPO NZ 2,269,460 742,606,937

What is the manipulation?

Shorters take a negative view of a stock and expect to benefit from that view when the sp falls, just as investors go long and expect to benefit when the sp rises.

Stock Exchanges encourage shorting as an important component of a healthy & liquid exchange.

And as you so rightly pointed out, the shorters are going to have to buy back the stocks they shorted sometime in the future. We have seen them badly burnt & mauled before.

[dreamcatcher]

What is the manipulation?

Shorters take a negative view of a stock and expect to benefit from that view when the sp falls, just as investors go long and expect to benefit when the sp rises.

Stock Exchanges encourage shorting as an important component of a healthy & liquid exchange.

I read somewhere that financial institutions can not be shorted. If it is so healthy I wonder why ?

[Balance]

I read somewhere that financial institutions can not be shorted. If it is so healthy I wonder why ?

Not true.

https://www.shortman.com.au/stock?q=Wbc

Shorting is a hard gig imo - it goes against the primary premise behind the Stockmarket which is to invest for sp gain.

But it has its place as do derivatives like options, be them puts or calls.

[dreamcatcher]

Not true.

https://www.shortman.com.au/stock?q=Wbc

Shorting is a hard gig imo - it goes against the primary premise behind the Stockmarket which is to invest for sp gain.

But it has its place as do derivatives like options, be them puts or calls.

My investing method has been the old fashioned Buy Hold.......hard to teach an old dog new tricks :)

[tomm]

What is the manipulation?

Shorters take a negative view of a stock and expect to benefit from that view when the sp falls, just as investors go long and expect to benefit when the sp rises.

Stock Exchanges encourage shorting as an important component of a healthy & liquid exchange.

And as you so rightly pointed out, the shorters are going to have to buy back the stocks they shorted sometime in the future. We have seen them badly burnt & mauled before.
You are probably have been long enought to understand the Sp will be depressed and doesn't show its true value ,unless you are a shorter or looking for an entry.

[Balance]

You are probably have been long enought to understand the Sp will be depressed and doesn't show its true value ,unless you are a shorter or looking for an entry.

As a long term investor, why would you be concerned? Potentially gives those who want to invest a cheaper entry price!

But maybe what you consider to be depressed and not reflecting true value is the opposite? Companies do get overvalued in the market - eg. sky TV 2 years ago. Same could be true of ATM.

[Balance]

Daily Gross Short Sales reported for 06-Jan-2021,
ASX Limited (ASX) & Chi-X Australia (CHI-X)A2M THE A2 MILK COMPANY LIMITED FPO NZ 2,269,460 742,606,937

7 JAN A2M THE A2 MILK COMPANY LIMITED FPO NZ 1,076,582 742,606,937 .14

Based upon indicative short sales of another 1m odd more A2M shares on 7 Jan, it looks like shorters are back in force :

https://www.shortman.com.au/stock?q=A2M

Shorts will be now higher than they were before the second profit downgrade on 18 Dec!

They are either going to be very very wrong in late Feb for not locking in their gains now or are they playing big on their belief and will win even more?

[Gregnz]

All very interesting. Shorters have been badly burnt previous years. My gut feeling tells me there is as much likelihood of guidance being met as there is of missing guidance. At this point it’s a bit of a stab in the dark.

The company has certainly made it clear that a share buy back could be part of their capital management plan, that would certainly put a cat amongst the pigeons.
Any short squeeze will only have more impact on pushing the share price higher , based on a higher % shorted.

They also haven’t ruled out paying dividends, they just said it wasn’t a short term strategy as they felt they could provide a better return to investors by using funds elsewhere.
The announcement of a dividend would also be a cat amongst the pigeons scenario.

You’d certainly have to be quite gutsy to be shorting now is my opinion.

[tomm]

7 JAN A2M THE A2 MILK COMPANY LIMITED FPO NZ 1,076,582 742,606,937 .14

Based upon indicative short sales of another 1m odd more A2M shares on 7 Jan, it looks like shorters are back in force :

https://www.shortman.com.au/stock?q=A2M

Shorts will be now higher than they were before the second profit downgrade on 18 Dec!

They are either going to be very very wrong in late Feb for not locking in their gains now or are they playing big on their belief and will win even more?
The shorters are just part of the stock trading scenario's , the stock may get depressed because of them , but the insto's are the truth players, you will never known when the shorters will get burn or the insto's are just keep feeding them to make money, long term holders are blessed!

[BlackPeter]

All very interesting. Shorters have been badly burnt previous years. My gut feeling tells me there is as much likelihood of guidance being met as there is of missing guidance. At this point it’s a bit of a stab in the dark.

The company has certainly made it clear that a share buy back could be part of their capital management plan, that would certainly put a cat amongst the pigeons.
Any short squeeze will only have more impact on pushing the share price higher , based on a higher % shorted.

They also haven’t ruled out paying dividends, they just said it wasn’t a short term strategy as they felt they could provide a better return to investors by using funds elsewhere.
The announcement of a dividend would also be a cat amongst the pigeons scenario.

You’d certainly have to be quite gusty to be shorting now is my opinion.

Don't forget that the incoming CEO (David Bortolussi) will want to open the lockers and remove any remaining skeletons. It is as well in his best interest to make the next market update as pessimistic as any possible. The lower the base, the better his achievement of saving the company.

I think it is more likely the next announcement is negative rather than positive, but after that the trend has a realistic chance to change. Well, this is if David is any good ... not sure I would use Pacific Brands he run for some time as an outstanding example for a great venture or turnaround, but hey ... my (Pacific Brands) undies are o.k.

Discl: neither short nor long, but at this stage if I had to put in money I would be more likely to go short ...

[HKG2301]

All very interesting. Shorters have been badly burnt previous years. My gut feeling tells me there is as much likelihood of guidance being met as there is of missing guidance. At this point it’s a bit of a stab in the dark.

The company has certainly made it clear that a share buy back could be part of their capital management plan, that would certainly put a cat amongst the pigeons. Any short squeeze will only have more impact on pushing the share price higher, based on a higher % shorted.

They also haven’t ruled out paying dividends, they just said it wasn’t a short term strategy as they felt they could provide a better return to investors by using funds elsewhere. The announcement of a dividend would also be a cat amongst the pigeons scenario.

You’d certainly have to be quite gusty to be shorting now is my opinion.

Two very good points there: declaring a dividend (for the first time) or a share buy-back. Either of which results in real pain for short positions.

[I'm thinking TSLA here, as I reckon I lost so much shorting that b****r of a share, I could have bought myself a new one!]

I wouldn't rule out a buy-back in particular, especially if the board anticipates meeting or beating their (revised) guidance next month. It might be best use of funds at present: a conservative move in turbulent times, appreciated by the institutionals.

Which leaves us at a crossroads. Somehow, I don't see ATM languishing at these levels for long - certainly not past next month's update. With this level of shorting, volatility is now like a coiled spring. And TA's will tell you that the longer it consolidates in this $11-12 range, forming a solid base, the stronger the reaction once the spring is released. Easily back up to the $15 level (+30% say).

Of course, Balance could be right, we could see a third downgrade. But would that take the share that much lower now? Say $10-ish (-15%)?

The balance of risk seems to favour the longs, IMO.

[Ruby]

Given the debacle with Hrdlicka,it could also be argued that they got all the bad news out in 2020 to give the new guy a decent head start as they would be hammered if another new CEO brought bad tidings.
A2M's DNA has always been to under promise,over deliver until the global pandemic.

[winner69]

Given the debacle with Hrdlicka,it could also be argued that they got all the bad news out in 2020 to give the new guy a decent head start as they would be hammered if another new CEO brought bad tidings.
A2M's DNA has always been to under promise,over deliver until the global pandemic.


The ‘debacle’ with Hrdlicka was Hearn (and suppose the board agreed) firing her because she was moving too fast.

Bringing back Babidge as a ‘caretaker CEO’ was an even bigger debacle. He shouldn’t have stayed away ...he had done his job well but as a caretaker it was always going to end in tears. Boards should not make decisions on sentiment.

The damage caused because of those decisions was starting to show before Covid - it will take years (if ever) to get back on track to greatness.

I feel sorry for this guy David ... a weak Chairman and a company that’s lost it compass big time.

That’s how I see it anyway.

[Leftfield]

The ‘debacle’ with Hrdlicka was Hearn (and suppose the board agreed) firing her because she was moving too fast.

Other more likely reasons given were;

- Not shifting from Melb to HO in Sydney
- Early sale of 'performance' shares
- Hiring of too many ex work mates from Ansett etc
- Top heavy micro management
- Remaining CEO/Chair of the Melbourne Tennis org

etc etc

Bringing back Babidge as a ‘caretaker CEO’ was an even bigger debacle. He shouldn’t have stayed away ...he had done his job well but as a caretaker it was always going to end in tears. Boards should not make decisions on sentiment.

Again only in your opinion Winner. Babidge has made many good moves incl the removal of Hrdlicka. His purchase of Mataura Valley Milk is a work in progress but a good example of far sighted thinking.

The damage caused because of those decisions was starting to show before Covid - it will take years (if ever) to get back on track to greatness.

Pure speculation. What evidence have you to show this? BAU IMHO.

I feel sorry for this guy David ... a weak Chairman and a company that’s lost it compass big time.

That’s how I see it anyway.

Crikey Winner, you must be feeling a tab grumpy today. Not your usual high standard.

[xp04]

The ‘debacle’ with Hrdlicka was Hearn (and suppose the board agreed) firing her because she was moving too fast.

Bringing back Babidge as a ‘caretaker CEO’ was an even bigger debacle. He shouldn’t have stayed away ...he had done his job well but as a caretaker it was always going to end in tears. Boards should not make decisions on sentiment.

The damage caused because of those decisions was starting to show before Covid - it will take years (if ever) to get back on track to greatness.

I feel sorry for this guy David ... a weak Chairman and a company that’s lost it compass big time.

That’s how I see it anyway.

I do not think the ‘debacle’ with Hrdlicka was about her moving too fast. Rather she was 'destroying' established management model/culture while sitting on two chairs letting her 'buddy' consultants run the company and as result many long serving and dedicated people decided to leave the company. Also I do not think Hearn had a choice but to bring Babidge back otherwise company would be without CEO for sometime which is much worse. It was always clear that Babidge would be a seat warmer and not a decision maker. I have my reservations about the BOD but I agree with Ruby and don't think that they are that stupid and will let new CEO to pour another load of manure this time. Besides, it looks like DB will start somewhere around HY results announcement date and I doubt he will have time to find any remaining skeletons. It's not like I think there are any.

[alokdhir]

The ‘debacle’ with Hrdlicka was Hearn (and suppose the board agreed) firing her because she was moving too fast.

Bringing back Babidge as a ‘caretaker CEO’ was an even bigger debacle. He shouldn’t have stayed away ...he had done his job well but as a caretaker it was always going to end in tears. Boards should not make decisions on sentiment.

The damage caused because of those decisions was starting to show before Covid - it will take years (if ever) to get back on track to greatness.

I feel sorry for this guy David ... a weak Chairman and a company that’s lost it compass big time.

That’s how I see it anyway.

Fully agree with u ...New shorters did not let it go over 12.50 as it was too mouth watering levels for a company which is at best a 50/50 gamble ...

Classic bounce and reversal to previous peak levels ...further price action will disclose which way the market is leaning ...if closes below 10.91 then pretty negative SP levels ahead

Always trust the combined wisdom of the market ...it collectively knows the best ...IMHO

[James108]

If the market knows best why do we all buy individual shares instead of just purchasing ETF’s... really makes you think.

[xp04]

Fully agree with u ...New shorters did not let it go over 12.50 as it was too mouth watering levels for a company which is at best a 50/50 gamble ...

Classic bounce and reversal to previous peak levels ...further price action will disclose which way the market is leaning ...if closes below 10.91 then pretty negative SP levels ahead

Always trust the combined wisdom of the market ...it collectively knows the best ...IMHO


SP levels ahead will be determined by news and updates released by the company or by speculations and manipulations in case of absence of such news. The beauty of shorting game is it could go either way and with the first sign of good news shorters will push price well above 12.50 in no time

[Balance]

If the market knows best why do we all buy individual shares instead of just purchasing ETF’s... really makes you think.

Two words - Warren Buffett

[alokdhir]

If the market knows best why do we all buy individual shares instead of just purchasing ETF’s... really makes you think.

I wish I had purchased NZG instead of ATM ...lol

But I was referring to current SP trend of any share ...which is the result of the combined market's wisdom about that share !!

[alokdhir]

SP levels ahead will be determined by news and updates released by the company or by speculations and manipulations in case of absence of such news. The beauty of shorting game is it could go either way and with the first sign of good news shorters will push price well above 12.50 in no time

Will see in future who wins ...I said its a gamble with at best 50/50 chance of either side winning ...U have chosen Bulls it seems !!

No position at present in ATM .

[xp04]

Will see in future who wins ...I said its a gamble with at best 50/50 chance of either side winning ...U have chosen Bulls it seems !!

No position at present in ATM .

What future are we talking about? A week, month, year, five years? I do not gamble, but I do invest and I have been investing in this particular company for nearly a decade now and have seen it all.

[alokdhir]

What future are we talking about? A week, month, year, five years? I do not gamble, but I do invest and I have been investing in this particular company for nearly a decade now and have seen it all.

Best utilisation of your investable funds and its future growth I was referring to ...

Even WHS has come back to 3 $ after 7 years ...lol

[winner69]

Best utilisation of your investable funds and its future growth I was referring to ...

Even WHS has come back to 3 $ after 7 years ...lol

I remember selling WHS at over $7 ....TWICE

Good trades they were

[alokdhir]

I remember selling WHS at over $7 ....TWICE

Good trades they were

They were good as current SP is $ 3 ...wud have been bad if it was FPH sold at $ 15 just 2 years back :p

[xp04]

Best utilisation of your investable funds and its future growth I was referring to ...

Even WHS has come back to 3 $ after 7 years ...lol

So did I. It would be interesting to see someone who is thinking about worst utilisation of their investable funds and its future decline.
As for the WHS it was at $3 just over a year ago.

[trader_jackson]

Looks like the aussies pushed it off a small cliff today, down over 3% while the NZX listing is only down just over 2% (a fair difference)... although I'm somewhat surprised the share price is still over $10 (NZ listing), but as I've mentioned before, sometimes the fundamentals don't matter, just as long as the story feels good... and ATM still has a pretty good 'feel good' story around it.

[Balance]

Looks like the aussies pushed it off a small cliff today, down over 3% while the NZX listing is only down just over 2% (a fair difference)... although I'm somewhat surprised the share price is still over $10 (NZ listing), but as I've mentioned before, sometimes the fundamentals don't matter, just as long as the story feels good... and ATM still has a pretty good 'feel good' story around it.

ATM's sp is driven from the ASX - sp of ATM on NZX is largely irrelevant these days (until ASX opens) save as a supplier of stock and as an arb play.

[Balance]

Latest broker to downgrade A2M :

"Also weighing on its shares has been a recent broker note out of Ord Minnett.

According to the note, the broker has retained its lighten rating and lowered its price target on the company’s shares to $9.90.

It reduced its price target and lowering its earnings estimates to reflect the tough trading conditions it is facing.

One possible positive, though, is that the company is sitting on a sizeable cash balance. With its share price trading close to a 52-week low, the broker has suggested that capital management initiatives could be considered."

[Gregnz]

Latest broker to downgrade A2M :

"Also weighing on its shares has been a recent broker note out of Ord Minnett.

According to the note, the broker has retained its lighten rating and lowered its price target on the company’s shares to $9.90.

It reduced its price target and lowering its earnings estimates to reflect the tough trading conditions it is facing.

One possible positive, though, is that the company is sitting on a sizeable cash balance. With its share price trading close to a 52-week low, the broker has suggested that capital management initiatives could be considered."

Meanwhile Ord Minnett has been buying millions of shares in the past week. Usual broker tactics of accumulating while lowering price targets. Sometimes gotta see thru the smoke and mirrors often associated with broker ratings.

[Ruby]

From a couple of posters on HC;
"...
i read the same thing on Motley about Ord which is strange because Ord Minnet have been buying the stock as indicated by the broker data i have up till the 6th..."
"...Taxed said: ↑ (https://hotcopper.com.au/goto/post?id=50096194#post-50096194)Well thats their standard tactic, accumulate whilst downgrading, such an honest transparent lot...."

[Gregnz]

From a couple of posters on HC;
"...
i read the same thing on Motley about Ord which is strange because Ord Minnet have been buying the stock as indicated by the broker data i have up till the 6th..."
"...Taxed said: ↑ (https://hotcopper.com.au/goto/post?id=50096194#post-50096194)Well thats their standard tactic, accumulate whilst downgrading, such an honest transparent lot...."

Yep, smoke and mirrors.

[Balance]

Meanwhile Ord Minnett has been buying millions of shares in the past week. Usual broker tactics of accumulating while lowering price targets. Sometimes gotta see thru the smoke and mirrors often associated with broker ratings.


From a couple of posters on HC;
"...
i read the same thing on Motley about Ord which is strange because Ord Minnet have been buying the stock as indicated by the broker data i have up till the 6th..."
"...Taxed said: ↑ (https://hotcopper.com.au/goto/post?id=50096194#post-50096194)Well thats their standard tactic, accumulate whilst downgrading, such an honest transparent lot...."

Conspiracy theory worthy of Trump himself?

Now how would anyone (especially on HC!) know (millions of shares no less) who is buying given the way that trades are done on the ASX & NZX?

[HKG2301]

Meanwhile Ord Minnett has been buying millions of shares in the past week. Usual broker tactics of accumulating while lowering price targets. Sometimes gotta see thru the smoke and mirrors often associated with broker ratings.

Is it not the case that the brokers are simply buying on behalf of their clients, ie executing their clients instructions? So Ord Minnett et al can quite legitimately lower their price target whilst appearing to 'accumulate' the shares. It just tells me that clients are discounting their brokerage's advice and buying big at these levels.

BTW, I see that Forsyth Barr's latest research note* from 21 Dec has a revised target of $15.50 and retains their 'Outperform' rating. Just sayin'...


[* The FB research note also comments: The company does have a large cash balance which provides the option to help market confidence with a share buyback — this is “being considered”.]

[Balance]

Is it not the case that the brokers are simply buying on behalf of their clients, ie executing their clients instructions? So Ord Minnett et al can quite legitimately lower their price target whilst appearing to 'accumulate' the shares. It just tells me that clients are discounting their brokerage's advice and buying big at these levels.

BTW, I see that Forsyth Barr's latest research note* from 21 Dec has a revised target of $15.50 and retains their 'Outperform' rating. Just sayin'...


[* The research note also comments: The company does have a large cash balance which provides the option to help market confidence with a share buyback — this is “being considered”.]

You could say the same (ignoring their brokers’ valuation of A$12.50+) about the clients selling out big time?

Market will do what the market always do - interplay of conflicting short term sentiment sending the stock one way or the other.

[HKG2301]

You could say the same (ignoring their brokers’ valuation of A$12.50+) about the clients selling out big time?

Market will do what the market always do - interplay of conflicting short term sentiment sending the stock one way or the other.

Indeed. For every buyer there is a seller and vice versa...

[Biscuit]

....The company does have a large cash balance which provides the option to help market confidence with a share buyback — this is “being considered”.]

I've seen a few share buy-backs and don't remember any of them having much of a positive effect. I would be surprised if ATM did a share buy-back to be honest and they can hardly be taken seriously suggesting the market has mis-priced the company given they seem to have so little handle on their own revenue.

[macduffy]

The effect of a share buy-back often takes a while to be apparent in the SP - sometimes it just doesn't - but sharing profits among a smaller number of shares is still beneficial!

[Biscuit]

...sharing profits among a smaller number of shares is still beneficial!

Yes, that is true. I don't approve, but then I don't have to.

[winner69]

If they do a buy back might be one of those where every shareholder participates

[Balance]

If they do a buy back might be one of those where every shareholder participates

That’s a share cancellation.

Personally I think any kind of buyback or payment of dividend will not be a good move - distracts from the ‘growth’ story. Could lead to a PE contraction.

Tough it out - fundamentals will ultimately prevail if the management and directors believe that the reduction in earnings growth is short term, let the market do what the market does.

Plus, a lower sp will give management & directors a lower entry point for their options or better still, for them to buy heaps of ‘cheap’ shares.

[winner69]

That’s a share cancellation.

Personally I think any kind of buyback or payment of dividend will not be a good move - takes away the ‘growth’ story.

Could lead to a PE contraction.

Financial engineering (OK capital management) rarely turns out as people think it will

And yes a share buyback often leads to a PE contraction

[Gregnz]

Interesting viewpoint from HC, as others have pointed out, any such news would see short positions basically incinerated.

"Contrarian view, but my belief is CAHG is gearing up to purchase a stake in a2(10-15%). Very similar to when Coca Cola purchased a stake in MNST. The fact a2 bought 75% of MVM even more so validates the rationale, along with the large push into MBS stores by which WE both benefit. Management will be privy to this information which is why a buyback or insider buying hasn't occurred. This has the potential to create an almighty short squeeze(APT/Tencent)."

[dibble]

Financial engineering (OK capital management) rarely turns out as people think it will

And yes a share buyback often leads to a PE contraction

Yes, just jiggery pokery, the company merely decides what to do with money that might otherwise be yours via a dividend. Which perhaps begs the question, if they think they can do better with the money than pay it out as a dividend, is that insider trading?

[Balance]

Interesting viewpoint from HC, as others have pointed out, any such news would see short positions basically incinerated.

"Contrarian view, but my belief is CAHG is gearing up to purchase a stake in a2(10-15%). Very similar to when Coca Cola purchased a stake in MNST. The fact a2 bought 75% of MVM even more so validates the rationale, along with the large push into MBS stores by which WE both benefit. Management will be privy to this information which is why a buyback or insider buying hasn't occurred. This has the potential to create an almighty short squeeze(APT/Tencent)."

Pardon my ignorance but who is CAHG?

BTW, you have not replied to how posters in HC are able to identify Ord Minnett as the huge buyer of millions of shares - genuinely interested to know as I have not been able to obtain said information from my broking sources since trades and depth were made incognito years ago.

[Gregnz]

Pardon my ignorance but who is CAHG?

BTW, you have not replied to how posters in HC are able to identify Ord Minnett as the huge buyer of millions of shares - genuinely interested to know as I have not been able to obtain said information from my broking sources since trades and depth were made incognito years ago.


CAHG (China Animal Husbandry Group)

Take a quick look on HC , they post screen shots of broker data showing buys and sells. I’ve seen Ord Minnett on a few of those lists. Plenty of comments there about Ord Minnett buying. I simply try not to double post too much from HC into Sharetrader as I know most here follow HC closely.

[Balance]

CAHG (China Animal Husbandry Group)

Take a quick look on HC , they post screen shots of broker data showing buys and sells. I’ve seen Ord Minnett on a few of those lists. Plenty of comments there about Ord Minnett buying. I simply try not to double post too much from HC into Sharetrader as I know most here follow HC closely.

Thanks.

The screen shots I have seen (over the years) are often no more than lists of shareholders with the likes of Ord Minnett Nominees, Citicorp Nominees etc - simply means that institutions have been buying and putting into nominees. Posters do not have a clue as to who are actually buying!

[Gregnz]

Thanks.

The screen shots I have seen (over the years) are often of lists of shareholders with the likes of Ord Minnett Nominees, Citicorp Nominees etc - simply means that institutions have been buying and putting into nominees.

To be honest I don’t really follow it, but there are lists they call “broker data”. Some track it quite closely, and you’ll often see people asking for the past weeks broker data.
A few people pointed out how many shares Ord Minnett were buying in the past week while also subsequently issuing a lower price target.

I’m not overly interested in the info, as not too concerned about short term price movements, what matters to me is where the share price is in say 12 months to 2 years.
I still believe in the long term story and we wouldn’t be where we are if it wasn’t for Covid.

[alokdhir]

Current Price action is showing market wants to find out its bottom first ...AUD 10 is crucial if breaks then much lower levels possible in the short term .

But thats the process every down trending SP goes thru ...keep falling till it finds support ...more buyers then sellers to stop the fall

Or something big changes fundamentally which makes sellers into buyers overnight

[Biscuit]

.....Or something big changes fundamentally which makes sellers into buyers overnight

or buyers into sellers..

[JohnnyTheHorse]

Goldman Sachs has downgraded to Neutral with 12 month target in high NZ$12's. They have been one of the more bullish investment houses and downgrading on each each earnings downgrade, so probably grain of salt stuff. The shorters are the ones who have been accurately predicting the short term future.

Disc: no holding at time of posting, but regularly trading both long and short.

[alokdhir]

or buyers into sellers..

That has already happened buddy thats why we reached 11.20 again ...now 80% sellers and 20% buyers left ...very soon bottom will be found if company still worth investing and has its long term story intact ...thats a important question which buyers/holders need to answer to themselves .

On fundamental level following developments are worth noting

1. Many other brands locally or well respected foreign ones have now A2 only products

2. Brand strength of ATM is getting tested and at present its not doing great on that parameter

3. Overall company seems to be rudderless and management initiatives are not yet forth coming ...maybe waiting for new boss to takeover and put his ideas into the mix

4. Covid situation and its logistics problems are not going away soon

5. Market is huge which attracts other players too in a big way and margins were too high to attract very serious deep pocket players ...thus changing the overall market dynamics in a bigger picture way

[HKG2301]

It's fascinating how the SP is again being manipulated at the ASX open.

Just in the NZX today: at midday, bang, in came sell orders for 4,800 shares @ $11.22, 4,800 shares @ $11.23, 4,800 shares @ $11.24, 4,800 shares @ $11.25 and 4,800 shares at $11.26. This from a steady level of $11.60 on the NZX just prior.

At time of writing, they've all been snapped up and more sell orders have appeared: 4,800 shares @ $11.30 and 4,800 shares @ $11.31.

Someone really wants to give the SP a solid knock and is using the NZX to do it.

[wagwan]

That has already happened buddy thats why we reached 11.20 again ...now 80% sellers and 20% buyers left ...very soon bottom will be found if company still worth investing and has its long term story intact ...thats a important question which buyers/holders need to answer to themselves .

On fundamental level following developments are worth noting

1. Many other brands locally or well respected foreign ones have now A2 only products

2. Brand strength of ATM is getting tested and at present its not doing great on that parameter

3. Overall company seems to be rudderless and management initiatives are not yet forth coming ...maybe waiting for new boss to takeover and put his ideas into the mix

4. Covid situation and its logistics problems are not going away soon

5. Market is huge which attracts other players too in a big way and margins were too high to attract very serious deep pocket players ...thus changing the overall market dynamics in a bigger picture way


That's balanced :p

[alokdhir]

That's balanced :p

Was looking for reasons why we at SP 11.20 ...so needed to be negative developments to be down from 22 to 11 levels ...I thought that was elementary ...:D

[wagwan]

That has already happened buddy thats why we reached 11.20 again ...now 80% sellers and 20% buyers left ...very soon bottom will be found if company still worth investing and has its long term story intact ...thats a important question which buyers/holders need to answer to themselves - assume here you're talking fundamentals

On fundamental level following developments are worth noting Yep

1. Many other brands locally or well respected foreign ones have now A2 only products

2. Brand strength of ATM is getting tested and at present its not doing great on that parameter

3. Overall company seems to be rudderless and management initiatives are not yet forth coming ...maybe waiting for new boss to takeover and put his ideas into the mix

4. Covid situation and its logistics problems are not going away soon

5. Market is huge which attracts other players too in a big way and margins were too high to attract very serious deep pocket players ...thus changing the overall market dynamics in a bigger picture way

All essentially forward looking issues




Sorry, though when you're talking 'long term story' and 'important questions...to answer' you were forward looking. Elementary though, so must have gone over my head ;)

[alokdhir]

Sorry, though when you're talking 'long term story' and 'important questions...to answer' you were forward looking. Elementary though, so must have gone over my head ;)

Hope u know that current SP is a sum of market's forward looking wisdom ....so trying to know what market is giving importance to at the moment to drive a SP of 11.20 ...that will help us understand what in future possibly can change to change the current SP in either direction .

Anyways it was just my humble thoughts ...no need worry too much about it . :p

[dreamcatcher]

Seems Goldmans Sucks is playing games now.........

[Akane]

I wonder when will we realise that the company is just overrated, it's just milk, A2 is nothing special and can be replicated and duplicated easily, stock price was overvalued and $11 is the true value?

disc: lost 40%.

[Balance]

I wonder when will we realise that the company is just overrated, it's just milk, A2 is nothing special and can be replicated and duplicated easily, stock price was overvalued and $11 is the true value?

disc: lost 40%.

It's just a soft drink, coke is nothing special and can be replicated and duplicated easily - so Coca Cola is over-rated?

Guess that is why it is still a shining star in Warren Buffett's portfolio.

ATM has built itself an enviable premium position in the milk market in China and is the original A2 milk company. I believe the question that investors need to tackle is whether it can continue to command that premium position and use it (as Coca Cola has) across a greater product range. There is an issue with management ability and credibility in my mind currently which also needs to addressed - 2 down grades in a short time are not confidence endearing!

[Biscuit]

It's just a soft drink, coke is nothing special and can be replicated and duplicated easily - so Coca Cola is over-rated?

Guess that is why it is still a shining star in Warren Buffett's portfolio.

Exactly, and ATM have demonstrated that it is pretty good at brand management so far.

[Gregnz]

I wonder when will we realise that the company is just overrated, it's just milk, A2 is nothing special and can be replicated and duplicated easily, stock price was overvalued and $11 is the true value?

disc: lost 40%.

A shame you didn’t think of that before you invested. I guess if you hadn’t lost 40% your feelings would be different.

Plenty of companies can be easily replicated but are still success stories and bring incredible returns for share holders, I’m thinking banks, insurance companies, bakeries, actually nearly every food producer.
You may have heard of Graeme Hart, NZ’s richest man made a good chunk of his fortune from Goodman fielder who believe it or not make bread. You realise how easily you can bake bread? It’s all about marketing and branding these days.

[Ruby]

...and Apple just produces phones...

[Balance]

...and Apple just produces phones...

There is a vast difference between high spec manufactured products like phones and computers, and commodity based products.

[Leftfield]

I wonder when will we realise that the company is just overrated, it's just milk, A2 is nothing special and can be replicated and duplicated easily, stock price was overvalued and $11 is the true value?
disc: lost 40%.

While sad for your loss, I disagree that A2 is nothing special. Your claim runs counter to mounting scientific evidence against A1 milk.

In addition here are just some of A2's patents and patents pending.

Beta-casein a2 and prevention of inflammation of the bowel
Beta-casein a2 and reducing or preventing symptoms of lactose intolerance
Beta-casein a2 and blood glucose levels
Beta-casein a2 and antioxidant capacity
Infant formula comprising human milk peptides
Beta-caseins and cognitive function
Beta-caseins and gut microbiota
A2 beta-casein and viscosity of milk products

Disc - Holding (free held and have racked up 100% pa gains with ATM since approx 2013. I regard the current downturn as a temporary blip in the long term trend, of course I'm biased so DYOR.)