ATM - A2 Milk Corporation Limited

[Akane]

A shame you didn’t think of that before you invested. I guess if you hadn’t lost 40% your feelings would be different.

Plenty of companies can be easily replicated but are still success stories and bring incredible returns for share holders, I’m thinking banks, insurance companies, bakeries, actually nearly every food producer.
You may have heard of Graeme Hart, NZ’s richest man made a good chunk of his fortune from Goodman fielder who believe it or not make bread. You realise how easily you can bake bread? It’s all about marketing and branding these days.

I've said that over and over again that ATM is overvalued, but then again and again the market has "proven me wrong", so as any sensible person would think - Hey Mr Market disagrees with what I believe, maybe I'm wrong and Mr Market is right.

So I buckled and followed the crowd, and here I am.

[Sideshow Bob]

From Farmers Weekly:

Daigou dragging a2 Milk down | Farmers Weekly (https://farmersweekly.co.nz/section/dairy/view/daigou-dragging-a2-milk-down)

[Gregnz]

I've said that over and over again that ATM is overvalued, but then again and again the market has "proven me wrong", so as any sensible person would think - Hey Mr Market disagrees with what I believe, maybe I'm wrong and Mr Market is right.

So I buckled and followed the crowd, and here I am.

You’ve heard of Covid right? It’s this one in one hundred year event the world is experiencing. The share price hasn’t dropped simply because the market thinks it was over valued.

[Balance]

From Farmers Weekly:

Daigou dragging a2 Milk down | Farmers Weekly (https://farmersweekly.co.nz/section/dairy/view/daigou-dragging-a2-milk-down)

Excellent summary of the situation.

[Ruby]

For sure,but my point is Apple is more about the brand...many phones have Apples features,but don't cost as much...but people keep buying them.
People buy Volkswagen vehicles when they could buy rebadged Skodas & Seats for a much lower price.

[Ruby]

"..A2MC seems to be facing declining demand and loss of market share overall and it is unclear when or if this will reverse."
Any facts to back this up?

[Gregnz]

"..A2MC seems to be facing declining demand and loss of market share overall and it is unclear when or if this will reverse."
Any facts to back this up?

The last I heard the number of mother and baby stores A2 had expanded into in China had increased from something like 15,000 to nearly 30,000 stores, and their China sales were up 40%?

Unsure how that could lead to declining demand, but oh well each to their own I guess. Gotta sell headlines somehow.

[Balance]

"..A2MC seems to be facing declining demand and loss of market share overall and it is unclear when or if this will reverse."
Any facts to back this up?

ATM is blaming almost all the decline in sales on the daigou situation.

The question you should be asking imo : is that really the case or is the daigou situation being used conveniently by management to cover up for other issues?

The aggressive selling of shares by management and directors will be topmost in the mind of many a wary investor for a while yet.

[Akane]

You’ve heard of Covid right? It’s this one in one hundred year event the world is experiencing. The share price hasn’t dropped simply because the market thinks it was over valued.

My gut feeling is that COVID has not impacted as much as they say. There are still legitimate channels for the Chinese to get their hands on A2, in my perspective if I wanted to get A2 milk and my Daigou don't have stock, I'll just buy it through legitimate channels - that is if A2 is worth my hassle. If I switch to another brand instead (which is the message that others are trying to convey), then maybe A2 milk is not as important as one would think and it can be substituted by other brands that's more readily available.

[Ruby]

My gut feeling is that COVID has not impacted as much as they say. There are still legitimate channels for the Chinese to get their hands on A2, in my perspective if I wanted to get A2 milk and my Daigou don't have stock, I'll just buy it through legitimate channels - that is if A2 is worth my hassle. If I switch to another brand instead (which is the message that others are trying to convey), then maybe A2 milk is not as important as one would think and it can be substituted by other brands that's more readily available.
Wrong post,sorry.

[Ruby]

ATM is blaming almost all the decline in sales on the daigou situation.

The question you should be asking imo : is that really the case or is the daigou situation being used conveniently by management to cover up for other issues?

The aggressive selling of shares by management and directors will be topmost in the mind of many a wary investor for a while yet.
Sounds like a conspiracy theory of trump proportions ;-) ;-)

[Ruby]

Sounds like a conspiracy theory of trump proportions ;-) ;-)
Speaking of conspiracies...over on HC there is some interesting data on who's buying / selling opposite to what they are espousing to their clients...

[LEMON]

I've said that over and over again that ATM is overvalued, but then again and again the market has "proven me wrong", so as any sensible person would think - Hey Mr Market disagrees with what I believe, maybe I'm wrong and Mr Market is right.

So I buckled and followed the crowd, and here I am.

That also is called gambling?

You're betting on whether the market is right or wrong!

Rather than is the company good or bad, you even said you believe it was overvalued but still gambled.

[Skeleton]

ATM is blaming almost all the decline in sales on the daigou situation.

The question you should be asking imo : is that really the case or is the daigou situation being used conveniently by management to cover up for other issues?

The aggressive selling of shares by management and directors will be topmost in the mind of many a wary investor for a while yet.

I totally agree with you.
Daigou channel has been operating in both NZ and AUS for years and there is no significant revenue increased when Daigou raised.
But once you think about the reasons that they lost revenue, there aren't better excuse than blaming everything on lack of Daigou channel.

[Akane]

That also is called gambling?

You're betting on whether the market is right or wrong!

Rather than is the company good or bad, you even said you believe it was overvalued but still gambled.

All stocks are a gamble TBH, as nobody can predict the future and we as an individual can do very little to influence the outcome.

To answer your question, yes I gambled believing that I was wrong, and it turns out I was wrong about myself being wrong (if my argument holds true).

2 wrongs didn't make a right :D

[Balance]

Sounds like a conspiracy theory of trump proportions ;-) ;-)

You have a lot to learn about how corporates and the stock markets work imo but such is life.

[Ruby]

Conspiracy theory worthy of Trump himself?

Now how would anyone (especially on HC!) know (millions of shares no less) who is buying given the way that trades are done on the ASX & NZX?
Conspiracies theories abound in here aye lol...

[Balance]

Conspiracies theories abound in here aye lol...

That is a fact - that nobody would know who is buying or selling any stock on the market, save the buyer and seller given the way the ASX & NZX operate.

You have a lot to learn and it's up to you whether to learn or not imo.

[Ruby]

That is a fact - that nobody would know who is buying or selling any stock on the market, save the buyer and seller given the way the ASX & NZX operate.

You have a lot to learn and it's up to you whether to learn or not imo.
Just joking with ya mate ;-)

[invest]

There's a lot of misconception about how the daigou trade works, and therefore the impact on ATM.
Daigous were already experiencing disruption pre-covid as platforms became more dominant, and increasingly focused on disintermediation to capture margin.
COVID accelerated the demise of daigous, with lockdowns resulting in supply chain disruption.

Alibaba-Tmall/Taobao, JD, VIP, Red and numerous other e-commerce platforms have been working hard to bridge brand owners directly with consumers. Brand owners are increasingly operating flagship stores eg https://a2nutrition.world.tmall.com/
Whereas previously daigous would purchase product and sell on platforms like Taobao (the NZ equivalent is Trademe).
In the short term, there's a lot of disruption as Chinese consumers move away from the daigous/stores they have previously bought from to buying direct from brand owner or platforms. Unlike Trademe, Alibaba also buys stock direct from brand owners to resell on their own platforms.
Chinese consumers tend to trust the store they have always bought from, especially for highly sensitive items. Therefore the short term disruption is severe.
In the long term, ATM should be able to extract higher margins by minimising margin for middlemen, which is traditionally very high in China. ATM won't get the full benefit of disintermediation as platforms will have stronger bargaining power.

[Waltzing]

will we see competition in the future from oat based milk. NZ starting to try the swedish technology food path. And will they take this public at some stage.

[Ruby]

will we see competition in the future from oat based milk. NZ starting to try the swedish technology food path. And will they take this public at some stage.

Oat water you mean;
milk

/mɪlk/lter definitions by topic



See definitions in:

ll






an opaque white fluid rich in fat and protein, secreted by female mammals for the nourishment of their young.
"a healthy mother will produce enough milk for her baby"


[/COLOR]

[Balance]

There's a lot of misconception about how the daigou trade works, and therefore the impact on ATM.
Daigous were already experiencing disruption pre-covid as platforms became more dominant, and increasingly focused on disintermediation to capture margin.
COVID accelerated the demise of daigous, with lockdowns resulting in supply chain disruption.

Alibaba-Tmall/Taobao, JD, VIP, Red and numerous other e-commerce platforms have been working hard to bridge brand owners directly with consumers. Brand owners are increasingly operating flagship stores eg https://a2nutrition.world.tmall.com/
Whereas previously daigous would purchase product and sell on platforms like Taobao (the NZ equivalent is Trademe).
In the short term, there's a lot of disruption as Chinese consumers move away from the daigous/stores they have previously bought from to buying direct from brand owner or platforms. Unlike Trademe, Alibaba also buys stock direct from brand owners to resell on their own platforms.
Chinese consumers tend to trust the store they have always bought from, especially for highly sensitive items. Therefore the short term disruption is severe.
In the long term, ATM should be able to extract higher margins by minimising margin for middlemen, which is traditionally very high in China. ATM won't get the full benefit of disintermediation as platforms will have stronger bargaining power.


From Farmers Weekly:

Daigou dragging a2 Milk down | Farmers Weekly (https://farmersweekly.co.nz/section/dairy/view/daigou-dragging-a2-milk-down)

Thank you both for posting - very useful perspectives.

[tomm]

1000 international students granted exemption to return to New Zealand
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/education/300204969/1000-international-students-granted-exemption-to-return-to-new-zealand

[Waltzing]

yes oat milk has a lot of water and not the range of nutrients as plain milk and soy.

But there is still a market for these product and we simply said is it competition. I dont expect sport trainers to be recommending oat over soy.

[tomm]

yes oat milk has a lot of water and not the range of nutrients as plain milk and soy.

But there is still a market for these product and we simply said is it competition. I dont expect sport trainers to be recommending oat over soy.
It should be called : JUICE not MILK .:t_up:

[Leftfield]

Found this A2 update and analysis by John Ricci on Hot Copper where it was highly rated. (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MYdA35kITY0)

Useful info on the new A2 CEO David Bortolucci plus short term v longer term investment strategy update. Some useful analysis tools and links as well.

[Waltzing]

Like the juice!

well you may be right!

apparently oat is a soluble fibre.

"Oat Avena genes crop and wheat is a Triticum genus crop"

[Sideshow Bob]

Actually, on the subject of squeezed oat residual and almond juice with 98% added water..........

I've often wondered that when you go for a coffee, you can often get all sorts of "milk" to go with your FW/Cappy - ie soy, oat, almond, coconut, hemp, rice etc etc. Not that I've ever deviated! :huh:

Never heard of anyone in NZ offering A2 as an option......?? Been in cafes in Australia years ago, when all they had was A2.

Maybe shareholders should start asking? I know fresh in NZ isn't their main game, but every little helps....

[Gregnz]

Actually, on the subject of squeezed oat residual and almond juice with 98% added water..........

I've often wondered that when you go for a coffee, you can often get all sorts of "milk" to go with your FW/Cappy - ie soy, oat, almond, coconut, hemp, rice etc etc. Not that I've ever deviated! :huh:

Never heard of anyone in NZ offering A2 as an option......?? Been in cafes in Australia years ago, when all they had was A2.

Maybe shareholders should start asking? I know fresh in NZ isn't their main game, but every little helps....

Another example of a future growth opportunity. With this business I like the fact that they have previously grown so significantly with so many untapped opportunities.
I personally drink A2 as it agrees with me, would love if we could get all the various options they have available now in the USA, like chocolate A2 etc. Perhaps thats their plan for Mataura when they said they would use the facility to expand their product lines in addition to producing IF.

[TLM54]

Long time reader first time poster. Just want to chime in on a2 and the recent downgrades.

The a2 claims the crushing blow to the daigou is what’s causing these substantial downgrades in earnings guidance. The daigou is a sales channel that has been driven heavily by students and visitors from China.

We all know students and tourists haven’t been able to travel here since the border closures and the earnings guidance had been adjusted according with optimism in the 2H21 will be higher than the 1H21’s $670 million expectation. They are expecting FY21 to be between $1.4bn to $1.55bn.

There is a very very good chance a2 will not meet this guidance given the following:

-Both NZ and AUS have suspended visa processing on visitor’s visas and student visas of offshore applicants since lockdown.

-Visa processing for offshore applicants will unlikely resume until we know when the borders can reopen. This is likely months away, considering it largely depends on vaccine rollout and a sufficient % of the population having received the vaccine. Chances are we will slowly open up to low risk countries first like AUS, Singapore and the islands as more and more of the population is vaccinated.

-Considering we are months away from opening our borders again most Chinese students will not be able to enroll semester one courses AND have their visas processed to allow them to travel here. If Chinese students are returning to AUS/NZ this year, it will be for semester 2 in July, which, you guessed it, is outside of FY21.

-As for tourists, this will also take time to ramp up even after the border opens. Ask yourself, how long does it take to plan an overseas trip under normal conditions previously? At least a few months for most people. Throw into the mix, the limited flights going these days due to airlines reducing the flights they are running. Also, remember, marketing for AUS/NZ as a travel destination has been switched off for almost a year. It’s not likely we’ll be seeing any substantial tourist numbers for 2H21.

-If a2 is to meet its FY21 guidance given in December, the 2H21 improvement over 1H21 cannot be from daigou. Daigou will continue to contract further as more time passes in this border closure environment. Remember there are a lot of Chinese students who completed their study at the end of 2020 who have gone home. Other temporary visa holders have had their visas expire and left with no means to replenish these numbers.

Unless a2 achieves some decent growth in areas outside of daigou, I think they will struggle to exceed or even match their 1H21 sales. In conclusion, i think the likelihood of a 3rd downgrade is very likely.

disclosure:
sold off position at $12.
works in immigration space.

[see weed]

How low can you go you bad thing:ohmy:. A2 is my worst stock of the last year:scared:. Morningstar val. is looking better every day at $16.30:).

[alokdhir]

How low can you go you bad thing:ohmy:. A2 is my worst stock of the last year:scared:. Morningstar val. is looking better every day at $16.30:).

We are in danger area now ...if it breaks below AUD 10 then we can expect below NZD 10 in this down turn .

ATM SP has behaved exactly like it did at first downgrade ...big 20% down then bounce till 16.30 followed by slow grind to 14 ...now big 20% down to 11 ...bounced to 12.40 and now slow grind to 9.80-10 levels I expect .

[Akane]

"It's okay, just wait for 11.11, it'll moon!"
:t_up:

[HKG2301]

We are in danger area now ...if it breaks below AUD 10 then we can expect below NZD 10 in this down turn.

ATM SP has behaved exactly like it did at first downgrade ...big 20% down then bounce till 16.30 followed by slow grind to 14 ...now big 20% down to 11 ...bounced to 12.40 and now slow grind to 9.80-10 levels I expect .

I'm not a 'believer' in TA, not to that extent anyway, so I'm buying in at these levels. Quite happy to do so on fundamentals.

There is obvious short pressure and - dare I say it - price manipulation going on, but I'm happy to DCA and add to my long term ATM position.

I'm reasonably confident that the SP will be back in the region of $15.50 this year, an upside of 40%, so I'm content to weather a possible brief downside to $10.

And I won't be surprised to see a short squeeze being triggered at some stage (a la TSLA) in which case, watch out!

[see weed]

We are in danger area now ...if it breaks below AUD 10 then we can expect below NZD 10 in this down turn .

ATM SP has behaved exactly like it did at first downgrade ...big 20% down then bounce till 16.30 followed by slow grind to 14 ...now big 20% down to 11 ...bounced to 12.40 and now slow grind to 9.80-10 levels I expect .
Was going to buy some more HLG, but pressed the wrong keys and bought more ATM. Just couldn't help it, at $10.96, but only half order went through. This stock moves very fast, when checking depth 4 seconds later it was back to $11:eek2:.

[LEMON]

"It's okay, just wait for 11.11, it'll moon!"
:t_up:

Why will it moon?

[madmat]

"It's okay, just wait for 11.11, it'll moon!"
:t_up:

But its 11.03 now XD

[alokdhir]

[QUOTE=HKG2301;866870]I'm not a 'believer' in TA, not to that extent anyway, so I'm buying in at these levels. Quite happy to do so on fundamentals.

There is obvious short pressure and - dare I say it - price manipulation going on, but I'm happy to DCA and add to my long term ATM position.

I'm reasonably confident that the SP will be back in the region of $15.50 this year, an upside of 40%, so I'm content to weather a possible brief downside to $10.

I am quite ok with your logic that downside is less and upside is more so risk reward is in your favour .

But not the similarity with TESLA happening here soon unless they actually turnaround the downtrend fundamentally ...Tesla had great numbers coming for it ...ATM has down grades coming ....need to change that to upgrades first ...then $ 5 upside in 2-3 days possible .

[Hoop]

I'm not a 'believer' in TA, not to that extent anyway, so I'm buying in at these levels. Quite happy to do so on fundamentals.

There is obvious short pressure and - dare I say it - price manipulation going on, but I'm happy to DCA and add to my long term ATM position.

I'm reasonably confident that the SP will be back in the region of $15.50 this year, an upside of 40%, so I'm content to weather a possible brief downside to $10.

And I won't be surprised to see a short squeeze being triggered at some stage (a la TSLA) in which case, watch out!

TA helps to time your buys (entries) and exits..TA is not perfect but you improve your odds of a successful trade (entry or exit).
We use to have a very quiet ragged type of individual (a work associate) sit in with our friends down at the Pub, we always talked about the sharemarket as nearly everyone did, except him...He never discussed any company looked completely lost when we talked company fundamentals...He wasn't a very bright individual but we tolerated his presence... We found out one night with a few beers that this smelly unkempt individuals portfolio was nearly a $million.. a lot of money back in the mid 1980's..We (in disbelief) asked him how he traded and he replied in very simple terms that he only bought shares that pointed upwards and when they started to point downwards he sold them.

So which way is ATM pointing...eh..

Answer:..The non TA share price chart below gives you the answer...
Yes ATM might suddenly find the bottom and rapidly point back upwards give those people entering now a large capital gain, but trading history says the odds are against you..The odds improve when you wait for an upturn...
There are lots of hillarious trading adages around such as:
....Confucius Says: "He who picks bottoms gets stinky fingers".
There is a mental condition when traders/investors fall victim, compelled (emotive behaviour) to buy falling knife stocks.... and there is a idiom:
.....Don't try to catch a falling knife ..Definition of falling knife (Investopedia) (https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/fallingknife.asp)
and the adage...Confucius Says: "He who catchee falling knife losee fingers".

12230

[HKG2301]

[QUOTE=HKG2301;866870]I am quite ok with your logic that downside is less and upside is more so risk reward is in your favour. But not the similarity with TESLA happening here soon unless they actually turnaround the downtrend fundamentally ...Tesla had great numbers coming for it ...ATM has down grades coming ....need to change that to upgrades first ...then $ 5 upside in 2-3 days possible .

I'm thinking more of the mammoth shorting situation with TSLA a year or so ago.

Agreed little similarity between the companies: then, TSLA struggled to make a profit, was running out of cash, and had Elon sticking his foot in his mouth every other tweet. Then, Bingo! A short squeeze to end all short squeezes (plus a wealth of true believers) has the company valued more than the seven other biggest auto-makers combined. TSLA still barely makes a profit (I don't know where you get the "great numbers" from) but now has a wealth of cash to buy its way out of trouble.

OK, there were other factors at play at the time (as always): covid stimulus, commission-free trading, bored millennials in lockdown, eg RobinHooders, Space-X, etc, but it was no coincidence that TSLA was hugely shorted - right up to the point when the shorting lid blew off.

So, I agree that there's little similarity between ATM (very profitable, but with a couple of recent guidance adjustments) and the TSLA of 1-2 years ago (had never met its guidance, or even turned a profit), beyond the obvious shorting pressure. And the same possible outcome...

:t_up:

[ShouldHaveHeld]

Eh, but Tsla has Elon Musk and his entire cult, you do not have that with ATM. You're also comparing milk to 'the future of motors', people bought into the 'future' part of it whereas idk how you can compare that with milk

[HKG2301]

TA helps to time your buys (entries) and exits..TA is not perfect but you improve your odds of a successful trade (entry or exit).

So which way is ATM pointing...eh..

Answer:..The non TA share price chart below gives you the answer...
Yes ATM might suddenly find the bottom and rapidly point back upwards give those people entering now a large capital gain, but trading history says the odds are against you..The odds improve when you wait for an upturn...
There are lots of hillarious trading adages around such as:
....Confucius Says: "He who picks bottoms gets stinky fingers".
There is a mental condition when traders/investors fall victim, compelled (emotive behaviour) to buy falling knife stocks.... and there is a idiom:
.....Don't try to catch a falling knife ...and the adage...Confucius Says: "He who catchee falling knife losee fingers".



Classic! :t_up:

But you said it yourself: "The non TA share price chart".

What you describe is momentum trading (in my book) and does not require Fibonacci, Bollinger Bands, Elliot Wave theory, or the other bric-a-brac of technical analysis.

When trading other markets such as the US, I do take notice of Fib-levels, etc, because I know that many traders do, therefore the algo's do, therefore... It's almost a self-fulfilling prophesy.

I'm not sure TA matters so much in the NZX however. Far fewer shares, lower volumes, limited derivatives, less day-trading.

[HKG2301]

Eh, but Tsla has Elon Musk and his entire cult, you do not have that with ATM. You're also comparing milk to 'the future of motors', people bought into the 'future' part of it whereas idk how you can compare that with milk

You did read my post, right...?

[HKG2301]

One of the few TA notions I do subscribe to is support (and resistance) levels, hence my reference to the $10-ish level...


12231

ATM.NZ 3-yr chart

[Hoop]

One of the few TA notions I do subscribe to is support (and resistance) levels, hence my reference to the $10-ish level...


Everyone can do this....Simple drawn Support/Resistance (S&R) lines connect top or bottom price points (need at least 3 touching points). Nowadays with better and more data available it is more suitable to use Candlesticks or OHLC than closing price as used in your chart above, and don't forget, gaps act as very important points on the S&R line as well.

Gaps can be very spooky creatures..they can open up (gap up) and if they close (gap down or gap filled) they will fill at a similar price (see my chart on the previous page).

Historically ATM has shown to be a TA friendly Stock...so, yes, S&R lines work well (reliable)

That $10ish support is very fuzzy so I suspect it may act as an approximate support area if the shareprice falls that far.

[Mr Slothbear]

Eh, but Tsla has Elon Musk and his entire cult, you do not have that with ATM. You're also comparing milk to 'the future of motors', people bought into the 'future' part of it whereas idk how you can compare that with milk


A2 is the future of milk and with higher margins than making cars. Both first movers shaking up respective industries

[BlackPeter]

A2 is the future of milk and with higher margins than making cars. Both first movers shaking up respective industries

You make that sound like the gospel. Did investing just turn into a religion?

Don't forget though, that A2 used to be as well the past of milk ... and not sure where your reference of higher margins for A2 milk than from making cars comes from. Many car makers (I do hold some :)) enjoy quite healthy margins ...

Just a hint ... the only high margin area for A2 milk is in infant formula ... and most of the big dollars come from one single market.

[alokdhir]

Milk powder from NZ in making Ice Cream in China found to be contaminated with Virus ...Samples tested positive for Covid !!

Sure its no big deal but very bad publicity for NZ dairy and its clean , green and 100 % pure image for what many Chinese ready to pay hefty premium

ATM will suffer because of this or already suffering with continuous erosion of NZ dairy products reputation ...Chinese premium market is very sentiment based as there is not other logic to pay hefty premium for similar products ...so reputation of NZ dairy and its purity should be maintained at all costs for NZ dairy companies to keep on cashing on it :eek2:

[winner69]

Milk powder from NZ in making Ice Cream in China found to be contaminated with Virus ...Samples tested positive for Covid !!

Sure its no big deal but very bad publicity for NZ dairy and its clean , green and 100 % pure image for what many Chinese ready to pay hefty premium

ATM will suffer because of this or already suffering with continuous erosion of NZ dairy products reputation ...Chinese premium market is very sentiment based as there is not other logic to pay hefty premium for similar products ...so reputation of NZ dairy and its purity should be maintained at all costs for NZ dairy companies to keep on cashing on it :eek2:

Has that happened?

[Ggcc]

Has that happened?

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid-19-coronavirus-found-in-ice-cream-made-in-china-from-nz-milk-powder/FHZI6HLSKDJZ6O6ZRP64KM7BN4/

[HKG2301]

Milk powder from NZ in making Ice Cream in China found to be contaminated with Virus ...Samples tested positive for Covid !!

Sure its no big deal but very bad publicity for NZ dairy and its clean , green and 100 % pure image for what many Chinese ready to pay hefty premium

ATM will suffer because of this or already suffering with continuous erosion of NZ dairy products reputation ...Chinese premium market is very sentiment based as there is not other logic to pay hefty premium for similar products ...so reputation of NZ dairy and its purity should be maintained at all costs for NZ dairy companies to keep on cashing on it :eek2:

DON'T PANIC...!!!

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid-19-coronavirus-found-in-ice-cream-made-in-china-from-nz-milk-powder/FHZI6HLSKDJZ6O6ZRP64KM7BN4/ (https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid-19-coronavirus-found-in-ice-cream-made-in-china-from-nz-milk-powder/FHZI6HLSKDJZ6O6ZRP64KM7BN4/)

No evidence whatsoever that Covid survives/travels in un-chilled milk powder. Highly likely caused at the icecream production plant in Tianjin from an infected worker.

You've got to work pretty hard to make this seem a problem for NZ milk powder.

Click-bait.

[alokdhir]

DON'T PANIC...!!!

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid-19-coronavirus-found-in-ice-cream-made-in-china-from-nz-milk-powder/FHZI6HLSKDJZ6O6ZRP64KM7BN4/ (https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid-19-coronavirus-found-in-ice-cream-made-in-china-from-nz-milk-powder/FHZI6HLSKDJZ6O6ZRP64KM7BN4/)

No evidence whatsoever that Covid survives/travels in un-chilled milk powder. Highly likely caused at the icecream production plant in Tianjin from an infected worker.

You've got to work pretty hard to make this seem a problem for NZ milk powder.

Click-bait.

I have already stated in my post its a no big deal from fact's point of view ...but its given big negative publicity to NZ dairy ...which is called sentiment souring ...which had been bringing big bucks to ATM ...reputation of NZ products !!

All over Chinese media ...its mentioned NZ milk powder was being used in the ice cream which tested positive for Covid ...what U think young parents will think ?

[winner69]

What they saying on Hotcopper about this covid in icecream made with NZ milk powder

[HKG2301]

I have already stated in my post its a no big deal from fact's point of view ...but its given big negative publicity to NZ dairy ...which is called sentiment souring ...which had been bringing big bucks to ATM ...reputation of NZ products !!

All over Chinese media ...its mentioned NZ milk powder was being used in the ice cream which tested positive for Covid ...what U think young parents will think ?

And isn't that just exactly what you're doing with that (and other) posts, 'sentiment souring'?

Again, no big deal, unless you make it so...

[dreamcatcher]

And isn't that just exactly what you're doing with that (and other) posts, 'sentiment souring'?

Again, no big deal, unless you make it so...

You hit it on the nail 'sentiment souring' happens constantly with a2 fake news, Teeger special target prices, adding brokers high frequency algorithms a really honest industry. Repeated patterns with all this box moving client/broker on broker advice. ATM could with its huge cash reserve announce a Buy-back to rid us of these Hire-pool traders.

[Leftfield]

What they saying on Hotcopper about this covid in icecream made with NZ milk powder

Not much and pretty much the same as they are saying here...... if anything this news strengthens the 'pure nz clean' message as the 'contamination' 99.9% likely to have occurred at the Chinese end. Underlines the weaknesses in the Chinese food supply chain, not to mention their increasing use of alleged slave/low wage labour both in agriculture and factories.

Mind you the SP may still take a hit with nervous weak hands. I would only be buying on either good news or a confirmed uptrend. (Be good to get the uncertainty of the US inauguration/civil unrest out of the way too.)

[King1212]

Why everyone hates Chinese yet everyone wish they bought ATM products.

Ironic really....lol....

[winner69]

Chinese households apparently stocking up on things like IF as they get worried about more lockdowns

Could give A2 a boost

[Gregnz]

Now that Chinese consumers know that any product produced in China, even when using imported ingredients could become contaminated with Covid, they could very likely move towards purchasing even more NZ product.
I don’t know why people here think others don’t like the Chinese, I for one have plenty of Chinese colleagues and friends, as a culture they are far more intelligent than their western counterparts, and if I can put the pieces of the puzzle together, they sure as hell can.
They know that NZ has eliminated Covid in the community, they know that China hasn’t. Although the scaremongers will be pointing the finger at NZ milk powder as the source of the Covid contamination, Chinese consumers will be able to work out for themselves what product they can trust.

Perhaps not only another pantry stocking event on the horizon, but also another move away from Chinese manufactured or packaged product, to NZ manufactured and packaged.

[alokdhir]

And isn't that just exactly what you're doing with that (and other) posts, 'sentiment souring'?

Again, no big deal, unless you make it so...

Since when providing unbiased information become motivated action ....maybe u see it that way ...

I have no direct holdings in ATM but thru KFL have a exposure ...so I have no axe to grind here ...but was just trying to provide information as seen by me . If u dont agree then its very fine with me but please dont ascribe ulterior motives when there are no such intentions ...

[Balance]

Not much and pretty much the same as they are saying here...... if anything this news strengthens the 'pure nz clean' message as the 'contamination' 99.9% likely to have occurred at the Chinese end. Underlines the weaknesses in the Chinese food supply chain, not to mention their increasing use of alleged slave/low wage labour both in agriculture and factories.

Mind you the SP may still take a hit with nervous weak hands. I would only be buying on either good news or a confirmed uptrend. (Be good to get the uncertainty of the US inauguration/civil unrest out of the way too.)

Good points, LF.

On that note, I believe losses from the drop in ATM's sp have now clouded any resemblance of objective assessments by some holders of any developments (be them positive or negative) with ATM and the industry.

Examples :

1. Wholesale downgrades and reduced valuations by the major broking houses in response to the double earnings downgrades - perfectly natural & logical responses by the stockbroking industry. Note the numbers of posters commenting that the downgrades are conspiracies by the broking houses to manipulate the market and prise stock from the hands of shareholders.


2. China trade sanctions against Australia leading to fears that dairy products could be next on the list of products to be sanctioned. Note some posters here accusing other posters of scare-mongering when they were simply commenting on market concerns (could be right or could be wrong).

3. Shorters building up their positions in the stock after covering on the second downgrade. Note some posters using the strongest possible language on what is an accepted and actually healthy aspect of the stock markets.

Point is this - It is better to be aware of what's happening in the market, what's driving the stock price and position oneself accordingly. There is no point in getting emotional about developments - because emotions cloud judgement.


Since when providing unbiased information become motivated action ....maybe u see it that way ...

I have no direct holdings in ATM but thru KFL have a exposure ...so I have no axe to grind here ...but was just trying to provide information as seen by me . If u dont agree then its very fine with me but please dont ascribe ulterior motives when there are no such intentions ...

Sadly, alokdhir - emotions are clouding judgements.

[Balance]

Not much and pretty much the same as they are saying here...... if anything this news strengthens the 'pure nz clean' message as the 'contamination' 99.9% likely to have occurred at the Chinese end. Underlines the weaknesses in the Chinese food supply chain, not to mention their increasing use of alleged slave/low wage labour both in agriculture and factories.




Why everyone hates Chinese yet everyone wish they bought ATM products.

Ironic really....lol....

There are many who think that the criminal justice and the incarceration institutions in NZ and the Western world have become soft and breed hardened criminals & gangs. Victims' rights have taken a back seat to criminal rights - note how criminals are able to kill infants in NZ with impunity when family members & witnesses exercise their 'rights' to cover up?

There are far worse things than criminals (who forfeit their rights to be in society until they are rehabilitated) doing productive work while they serve their time in jail - that's what some Asian countries do but the West (led by the hypocritical US which just executed two mentally impaired prisoners) cannot resist serving up yet another helping of 'morality'.

[HKG2301]

Since when providing unbiased information become motivated action ....maybe u see it that way ...

I have no direct holdings in ATM but thru KFL have a exposure ...so I have no axe to grind here ...but was just trying to provide information as seen by me . If u dont agree then its very fine with me but please dont ascribe ulterior motives when there are no such intentions ...

Sorry, mate. I guess it boils down to the language you used, which seemed overly dramatic - which, in turn, suggests a certain motivation.

I appreciate English is not your first language, so perhaps I'm wrong, and you're not simply waiting/hoping for entry at a lower SP.

:cool:

[HKG2301]

DON'T PANIC...!!!

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid-19-coronavirus-found-in-ice-cream-made-in-china-from-nz-milk-powder/FHZI6HLSKDJZ6O6ZRP64KM7BN4/ (https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid-19-coronavirus-found-in-ice-cream-made-in-china-from-nz-milk-powder/FHZI6HLSKDJZ6O6ZRP64KM7BN4/)

No evidence whatsoever that Covid survives/travels in un-chilled milk powder. Highly likely caused at the icecream production plant in Tianjin from an infected worker.

You've got to work pretty hard to make this seem a problem for NZ milk powder.

Click-bait.

From China Daily:
https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202101/15/WS600129e5a31024ad0baa2e2b.html

And this, which reports that the ice-cream had been made "using milk powder from Ukraine and whey powder from New Zealand":
https://www.ladbible.com/news/news-ice-cream-tests-positive-for-covid-19-in-china-20210116

[Rawz]

Never in my wildest dreams did I think I would ever see a ladbible article quoted on sharetrader :scared:

[Mr Slothbear]

Wow so chief people officer Lisa snaking back to Virgin following pide piper Jane.

[HKG2301]

Never in my wildest dreams did I think I would ever see a ladbible article quoted on sharetrader :scared:

How about Wales Online...? This story has legs!

https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/uk-news/cartons-recalled-coronavirus-found-ice-19641636

[whatsup]

I hear on todays Aust news that there was a covid 19 contaminated ice cream in China supposedly made using N Z milk powder, I truly hope that this does not rub off onto ATM today !!

[BlackPeter]

I hear on todays Aust news that there was a covid 19 contaminated ice cream in China supposedly made using N Z milk powder, I truly hope that this does not rub off onto ATM today !!

Old news - and there is no indication that the Covid 19 came from the NZ milk powder. Actually - pretty absurd suggestion given NZ's Covid status - isn't it?

It is like baking a cake in NZ using flour coming from Australia, spices from Asia and berries from Russia. If the Kiwi baker sneezes at the cake before it is sold and leaves his flu virus on the cake, would this be the fault of the Australian farmers (producing the grain), the Asian farmers (growing the spices) or the Russians picking the berries?

[Sideshow Bob]

There was claims about Covid from NZ frozen beef in November.

Covid 19 coronavirus: China claims virus found on NZ frozen meat, Ardern says 'not our beef' - NZ Herald (https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid-19-coronavirus-china-claims-virus-found-on-nz-frozen-meat-ardern-says-not-our-beef/JR32GFKBB5375GHHM7MXZSBINM/)

Without trying to minimise the issue, the beef incident came to nothing pretty quickly.

[Hoop]

Hmmm..
Deduction from News+Social Media info..Chinese are Covid testing batches of manufactured product.......
Non-emotive deduction/conflict :confused:...That must be an expensive exercise and time consuming considering dead decaying (inactive) covid fragments also give positive results.

Non-emotive Deduction Decaying/dead Covid fragments are commonplace in Countries like USA Britain etc.
Response/assumption very likely some broken down fragments are packaged.
Question where is the news about +ve results from these countries imported goods?
Response maybe all the tests are covid -ve.
Fact There are a lot of mouths to feed in China and they also need other goods.. To fill the Chinese people needs millions of batches of goods from all over the world come into China every day..
Possible outcome maybe the high standard of manufactured goods from Covid contaminated Countries are Covid fragment free..
My personal opinion (bias?) I find it very difficult to believe that the Chinese are Covid testing all goods imported or manufactured for consumption...
My personal conflict:confused: and if by a miracle they are, strangely only one test (from millions)recently came back positive ...involving a country that has eradicated Covid from its community (NZ).

My personal response (bias/emotive?) I smell muck and nowadays with social media complicating things it is becoming too hard to ID the original muckraker.
Personal Opinion I'm with Balance on this one..Question why and who would benefit out of this news being "smeared" throughout Social Media. Sometimes a questioning investor using non-emotive deductions can discover windows of opportunity.

Personal investing experience Social Media = Emotion driven information and opinions........ Emotion kills investments

[King1212]

Atm is doomed...no one like Asian or Chinese here...how would expect ATM to thier products to them....lol

[Biscuit]

...no one like Asian or Chinese here...

Inaccurate and inappropriate comment.

[Balance]

Inaccurate and inappropriate comment.

Agreed - they love their money.

[Gregnz]

Atm is doomed...no one like Asian or Chinese here...how would expect ATM to thier products to them....lol

I’m not sure I would trust advice from someone who can’t construct a sentence or manage basic spelling.

[King1212]

Lol...balance....so true...

[Balance]

Shorts just about back to where they were before the shock second profit downgrade :

https://www.shortman.com.au/stock?q=A2M

A2 Milk Company Ltd (ASX: A2M) has seen its short interest remain flat at 8%. The a2 Milk share price has fallen heavily over the last few months after it reported material weakness in the daigou channel. Short sellers don’t appear to believe this will be a quick fix and may be expecting the weakness to persist into FY 2022.

[BlackPeter]

Agreed - they love their money.


Lol...balance....so true...

Highly inappropriate and racist comments;

[King1212]

That is the fact....love the Asian n the Chinese...only felt annoying people that bought in ATM...most hate them but love thier money n expect ATM to sell thier products to them....

Lol....just like south island tourism n hospitality operators ...lol...now the whole nation claimed they got ripped off there...lol

[Balance]

Highly inappropriate and racist comments;

I don't get what's racist about the obvious - that some posters here think poorly of China & China consumers but are happy for them to keep buying A2 IF?

[wagwan]

This thread has completely deteriorated over the past couple of months. Nothing aside from conjecture, rumour and speculation.

Will come back when there's something of substance to discuss.

[Balance]

This thread has completely deteriorated over the past couple of months. Nothing aside from conjecture, rumour and speculation.

Will come back when there's something of substance to discuss.

Meaning you only want to read and see positive news and postings.

Sp tells you what has been happening and if you care to read properly, why.

And you could have saved yourself grief by understanding market dynamics.

[Waltzing]

"construct a sentence properly"

we are guilty of typing on one keyboard and looking at other screens at the same time.

this stock is global and its fortunes will only become more difficult to predict as that trading increases.

DISC: 95% or more of this post was typed not viewing the keyboard.

[King1212]

Lol...so true Balance. ....

[silu]

Can we go back to some discussion please? Just a quick question re TA on the A2M.ASX. Is the A$10.00 support significant or where do we see additional lows should we breach that level?

[King1212]

If one would know the sp is heading...he or she won't be here.... would be at the private island.

Current posts are reflecting the real facts..

[Gregnz]

"construct a sentence properly"

we are guilty of typing on one keyboard and looking at other screens at the same time.

this stock is global and its fortunes will only become more difficult to predict as that trading increases.

DISC: 95% or more of this post was typed not viewing the keyboard.

Yes, construct a sentence. You did amazingly well to construct a well written sentence without looking at the keyboard.

The other racist poster wasn’t able to do the same, my head hurts trying to read what they wrote.

[BlackPeter]

Atm is doomed...no one like Asian or Chinese here...how would expect ATM to thier products to them....lol


Agreed - they love their money.


I don't get what's racist about the obvious - that some posters here think poorly of China & China consumers but are happy for them to keep buying A2 IF?

You are sure that you don't see the racism?

While it is true that there are in any statistical relevant population group some people who "love their money" - is it blatant racism to put this label on one particular group in the population. You could say exactly the same thing about white supremacist's or people coming from Africa, couldn't you?

Every group of people contains good and bad people. Putting however negative attributes which happen in all human groups just on one of them is racism.

Easy as that.

[Baa_Baa]

Just a quick question re TA on the A2M.ASX. Is the A$10.00 support significant or where do we see additional lows should we breach that level?

I don't think $10 is significant except for 'round number' support sentiment, the double bottom $9.82 (recent low), and below that $9.24, and $8.14 (https://invst.ly/ti4xa).

[Poet]

https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/images/misc/quote_icon.png Originally Posted by Balance https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/images/buttons/viewpost-right.png (https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?p=867247#post867247)
Agreed - they love their money.

I think there is a misunderstanding about what this post is trying to say

If I can take the liberty to clarify...

Balance is saying that ATM shareholders (or maybe NZers) love chinese peoples' money not that chinese people love money

[Balance]

You are sure that you don't see the racism?

While it is true that there are in any statistical relevant population group some people who "love their money" - is it blatant racism to put this label on one particular group in the population. You could say exactly the same thing about white supremacist's or people coming from Africa, couldn't you?

Every group of people contains good and bad people. Putting however negative attributes which happen in all human groups just on one of them is racism.

Easy as that.

BP, we are writing about some posters and some people - not all posters certainly not not all NZers.

[King1212]

Lol... people here hate the facts.....loll

Some kiwis hate Chinese and Asian...but love thier money.....that is the fact....

[dobby41]

BP, we are writing about some posters and some people - not all posters certainly not not all NZers.

King said 'most' (not some).
I, for one, love money from Chinese people as much as other people who help our economy.
I like the Chinese people as much as any other race and have had some great experiences in China.
Obviously I am not one of the 'most'.

[dobby41]

Atm is doomed...no one like Asian or Chinese here...how would expect ATM to thier products to them....lol


That is the fact....love the Asian n the Chinese...only felt annoying people that bought in ATM...most hate them but love thier money n expect ATM to sell thier products to them....


Lol... people here hate the facts.....loll

Some kiwis hate Chinese and Asian...but love thier money.....that is the fact....

You are back peddling here - started out as 'all', then 'most', and now 'some'.
'SOME' is such a 'nothing'!
Some people hate Chinese, some hate Maori, some hate white people.
'SOME' really means nothing.

[King1212]

Lol...u are one of them...lol

[alokdhir]

Lol... people here hate the facts.....loll

Some kiwis hate Chinese and Asian...but love thier money.....that is the fact....

Some Kiwi only ?? .... At present in the world Chinese are most not loved community ...part due to their own doing and ways and part due to prejudices in other people's mind as Chinese do many things differently then them ...If u see a particular subset group of population having very peculiar ways of doing and thinking about things then noting that behaviour ( can be both good ways or bad ways ) or associating that behaviour with that particular group is not racist profiling but factual profiling .

But now a days its become easy and fashionable to call out racism if another type person finds some peculiar facts about other type groups or community

In my view all note that peculiarities ...some in mind and some in words too and I see nothing wrong with it ...If people have common faults or merits then noting that is factual not racism

Thats my opinion only ...so please dont assume I am racist ...lol

Have noted many cases of reverse racism in NZ these days ...

[Gregnz]

Lol...u are one of them...lol

Can we move the focus back to the stock please. Many of your posts are nonsensical.

A shareholder isnt racist for simply holding shares in a company which sells a product to a specific country, but you are sure as hell racist when you start to spout unreadable crap about a dislike for Asian people, or that we hate them but love their money. Honestly, take a break from the forum, I cant work out if your typing while drunk, but I'm finding your posts extremely hard to decipher, let alone read.

[Balance]

https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/images/misc/quote_icon.png Originally Posted by Balance https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/images/buttons/viewpost-right.png (https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?p=867247#post867247)
Agreed - they love their money.

I think there is a misunderstanding about what this post is trying to say

If I can take the liberty to clarify...

Balance is saying that ATM shareholders (or maybe NZers) love chinese peoples' money not that chinese people love money

Thanks, Poet - bang on.

Now back to ATM.

Notice how the sp gets bought up on small volume each morning on NZX before ASX opens, and then get sold down?

Either the naive are buying without being aware of market dynamics or yes, I agree that there's some market 'manipulation' going on.

[alokdhir]

Thanks, Poet - bang on.

Now back to ATM.

Notice how the sp gets bought up on small volume each morning on NZX before ASX opens, and then get sold down?

Either the naive are buying without being aware of market dynamics or yes, I agree that there's some market 'manipulation' going on.

Market manipulation going on both dual listed stocks ...ATM and FPH too ....Both being controlled from ASX

Thats the disadvantages of being listed on ASX ...lol

[silu]

Thanks, Poet - bang on.

Now back to ATM.

Notice how the sp gets bought up on small volume each morning on NZX before ASX opens, and then get sold down?

Either the naive are buying without being aware of market dynamics or yes, I agree that there's some market 'manipulation' going on.

There are sometimes "late rallys" on the ASX so opening on NZX is just to achieve parity is it not?

[HKG2301]

Notice how the sp gets bought up on small volume each morning on NZX before ASX opens, and then get sold down?

Either the naive are buying without being aware of market dynamics or yes, I agree that there's some market 'manipulation' going on.

Most other markets have a minimum lot size, eg 100 shares - why not the NZX? What's the history there?

Seems ludicrous to have share transactions of 1, 2, 3, etc shares being quoted. Isn't that part of what that trader was accused of last month, trying to 'lead the market' with multiple small trades?

[dreamcatcher]

OMG market manipulation, what surely not on ATM ............:mad ;::eek2:

Some call it daily GAMES

[King1212]

Lol... bitter isnt it? Got attacked by losing money shareholders....lol

Peace n quiet now....I shall leave the sinking ship to the captain....

[Gregnz]

Lol... bitter isnt it? Got attacked by losing money shareholders....lol

Peace n quiet now....I shall leave the sinking ship to the captain....

Great, see ya.

(BTW no one is attacking you, they are simply calling you out for the racist you are).

[davflaws]

Every group of people contains good and bad people. Putting however negative attributes which happen in all human groups just on one of them is racism.

Easy as that.

Yup - you nailed it. What are ya - some leftie woke treehugging greenie?

[BlackPeter]

What are ya - some leftie woke treehugging greenie?

Depends where the people are sitting who you ask :) Some people here used to label me "extreme right" (talk with Westerly or El Zorro), while others love to label me "extreme left" (particularly the Trumpistas of sharetrader). The label "woke treehugging greenie" is new for me, but you don't need to be proud to label people.

If you ask me .. I am sitting comfortably in the middle (liberal, not libertarian) and choose at election time whoever is in my view at the time the best party to run the country. Sometimes this is conservative (National / ACT) and sometimes this is conservational / progressive (Green and / or Labor).

Looking at my values - I do value honesty and integrity, which naturally biased me against Trump. I can't stand liars, racists and crooks.

But that's just me ... what about you?

[davflaws]

Guilty on all counts - Sometimes I even imagine the trees hug me back. The guys I hang out with in the menz movement certainly do

ATM is currently down to 30% of my portfolio by value with 53% unrealised profit on avge cost of 713. I don't trade, having found I'm not very good at it.
When I have extra money (and as I am now completely retired that is unlikely in the immediate future) I buy whichever of the 8 NZX shares I hold seems the best "buy", and when I need money, I sell whichever seems least likely to go up in the short term. My last buy was PEB at 24, and my last sale was OCA at 110 or thereabouts

[King1212]

Hahha... sinking ship

[dodgy]

Depends where the people are sitting who you ask :) Some people here used to label me "extreme right" (talk with Westerly or El Zorro), while others love to label me "extreme left" (particularly the Trumpistas of sharetrader). The label "woke treehugging greenie" is new for me, but you don't need to be proud to label people.

If you ask me .. I am sitting comfortably in the middle (liberal, not libertarian) and choose at election time whoever is in my view at the time the best party to run the country. Sometimes this is conservative (National / ACT) and sometimes this is conservational / progressive (Green and / or Labor).

Looking at my values - I do value honesty and integrity, which naturally biased me against Trump. I can't stand liars, racists and crooks.

But that's just me ... what about you?

Very well said Black Peter. PC nonsense reins I'm afraid. Live well, happy and with integrity
Regards,
-dodgy

[Waltzing]

This is the ATM thread, what ever your thinking "At The Moment".

[alokdhir]

Hahha... sinking ship


All ships finally sail ....this is being repaired ...one day it will take us all on world cruise ...U will see :D

[wagwan]

Meaning you only want to read and see positive news and postings.

Sp tells you what has been happening and if you care to read properly, why.

And you could have saved yourself grief by understanding market dynamics.

Meaning I'd rather hear about the mechanics of the business, financial metrics, relevant and real news (not rumour), thoughts regarding use of cash, earnings potential of US market etc etc etc

As opposed to short term thinking of 'market dynamics'. Investing means understanding the business and it's long term prospects. If you're trading or timing the market you'd be more worried about market dynamics over 6-12 months.

Disc: I don't hold so have no vested interest. Making the decision as to whether to hold or not would be aided by some decent discussion re fundamentals.

[HKG2301]

Meaning I'd rather hear about the mechanics of the business, financial metrics, relevant and real news (not rumour), thoughts regarding use of cash, earnings potential of US market etc etc etc

As opposed to short term thinking of 'market dynamics'. Investing means understanding the business and it's long term prospects. If you're trading or timing the market you'd be more worried about market dynamics over 6-12 months.

Disc: I don't hold so have no vested interest. Making the decision as to whether to hold or not would be aided by some decent discussion re fundamentals.

I don't disagree that "Investing means understanding the business and it's long term prospects", although not in isolation. There are many other market and geo-political factors that should not be ignored.

Hence the old saw, 'do your own research' always applies. Have you done much research into ATM, and do you have anything to offer here, re fundamentals...?

PS. Personally, I always try to 'time the market'. You'd be a fool to rush out and buy at the top, as so many seem to do...

[RupertBear]

Depends where the people are sitting who you ask :) Some people here used to label me "extreme right" (talk with Westerly or El Zorro), while others love to label me "extreme left" (particularly the Trumpistas of sharetrader). The label "woke treehugging greenie" is new for me, but you don't need to be proud to label people.

If you ask me .. I am sitting comfortably in the middle (liberal, not libertarian) and choose at election time whoever is in my view at the time the best party to run the country. Sometimes this is conservative (National / ACT) and sometimes this is conservational / progressive (Green and / or Labor).

Looking at my values - I do value honesty and integrity, which naturally biased me against Trump. I can't stand liars, racists and crooks.

But that's just me ... what about you?

well said BP :)

[Gregnz]

Hahha... sinking ship

I like that, "banned". Good riddance.

[Gregnz]

I like that, "banned". Good riddance.

Oh bugger, I thought we had been able to rid ourselves of our recent racist contributor, only to have them pop up on HotCopper re-posting exactly the same garbage.
They seem to be following Beagles lead, get banned here so post over there.
Take the hint people, if your banned from one forum, please don’t go and post the exact same crap somewhere else.

[HKG2301]

I like that, "banned". Good riddance.

:t_up: :t_up: :t_up:

[Beagle]

Oh bugger, I thought we had been able to rid ourselves of our recent racist contributor, only to have them pop up on HotCopper re-posting exactly the same garbage.
They seem to be following Beagles lead, get banned here so post over there.
Take the hint people, if your banned from one forum, please don’t go and post the exact same crap somewhere else.

For the record, I only posted one post on Hot Copper to point out pending possible issues with MSCI rebalancing. Coutts, you and others needn't worry about me trying to help others on stocks I don't own any more. I simply can't be bothered with all the negativity that comes with that. Some will be pleased, others disappointed...it is what it is, after 10 years plus my days of guard dog duties on shares in which I have no financial interest are over. I'm 60 this year and simply do not need or want the drama anymore.

Good luck to holders of ATM shares. Also for the record, I have sold all my Kingfish warrants and cleansed myself from any exposure at all to ATM.

[Gregnz]

For the record, I only posted one post on Hot Copper to point out pending possible issues with MSCI rebalancing. Coutts, you and others needn't worry about me trying to help others on stocks I don't own any more. I simply can't be bothered with all the negativity that comes with that.

Good luck to holders of ATM shares. Also for the record, I have sold all my Kingfish warrants and cleansed myself from any exposure at all to ATM.

Oh, I saw a post about 'downgrades come in threes' etc etc, using the same profile photo, also called 'Beagles'. I apologise on that basis, maybe that wasn't you, perhaps someone is impersonating you on the HotCopper Forum.

Personally, I dont get much value out of negativity coming from posters who dont directly hold a stock. Plenty of them on HotCopper who dont hold A2 yet have a sell sentiment.

[Jamie]

Knowledge and insight are appreciated #Beagle. Thankyou

[Beagle]

That single post, (there could have been two in the whole holiday period, I can't recall exactly to be honest) did include that famous saying...but as I said I am retiring from guard dog duties on any share I don't own and that specifically also includes, (but is certainly not limited too) Synlait. I know some will be disappointed but 10 years plus is a long time of guard dog duties and the level of negativity that I find that comes from sharing an objective, unbiased but negative view is simply not worth the effort any more.

I remain happy to opine on any company in which I have a financial interest.

[Biscuit]

Personally, I dont get much value out of negativity coming from posters who dont directly hold a stock. Plenty of them on HotCopper who dont hold A2 yet have a sell sentiment.

the negative opinion expressed on here about ATM share price by several people over several months, turned out to be right. That is worth something? Those of us who bought on the downslide (me included) were wrong. That's life.

[Rawz]

For the record, I only posted one post on Hot Copper to point out pending possible issues with MSCI rebalancing. Coutts, you and others needn't worry about me trying to help others on stocks I don't own any more. I simply can't be bothered with all the negativity that comes with that. Some will be pleased, others disappointed...it is what it is, after 10 years plus my days of guard dog duties on shares in which I have no financial interest are over. I'm 60 this year and simply do not need or want the drama anymore.

Good luck to holders of ATM shares. Also for the record, I have sold all my Kingfish warrants and cleansed myself from any exposure at all to ATM.

Hope you change your mind later on in the year and become a guard dog again. Very helpful to us less experienced investors. Your recent posts on HLG, HGH, TRA, KFL, OCA etc have been quite insightful and again, helpful. However, I do understand if you choose not to given what Greg just posted..

[Gregnz]

Negative opinion is great when it adds value, but not when it goes to the extreme of personally attacking the investment strategies of others. I don't have any issue with people posting a contrarian view, but there comes a time when its not appropriate to make personal attacks towards other posters, especially when they have made it clear they are no longer present in the forum. Unfortunately true colours appeared with those posts.

[Rawz]

Personally, I dont get much value out of negativity coming from posters who dont directly hold a stock. Plenty of them on HotCopper who dont hold A2 yet have a sell sentiment.

If you don't want the negative viewpoints you are going to get confirmation bias.
Naturally a poster with a negative viewpoint won't hold the stock.

You should welcome negative viewpoints and take what you can from them. And the reverse, people should take what they can from positive viewpoints and then make their own investment decisions after doing their own research.

[Gregnz]

If you don't want the negative viewpoints you are going to get confirmation bias.
Naturally a poster with a negative viewpoint won't hold the stock.

You should welcome negative viewpoints and take what you can from them. And the reverse, people should take what they can from positive viewpoints and then make their own investment decisions after doing their own research.

See my post above...

[Jamie]

I concur RAWZ

[Biscuit]

.... its not appropriate to make personal attacks towards other posters...

Yes, I agree. Call it out when you see it, then move on.

[Rawz]

See my post above...

MSCI rebalancing and downgrades coming in 3's is food for thought for you.
What you were referring to happened last year and you need to move on my friend.

[BlackPeter]

Personally, I dont get much value out of negativity coming from posters who dont directly hold a stock. Plenty of them on HotCopper who dont hold A2 yet have a sell sentiment.

Not sure how to put this in a nice way - however ... anybody who stands negative to a particular stock AND uses his (or her) brain would have sold out, wouldn't they?

This means that you just don't want to see any negative comments on stocks you like and hold. Only holders (who typically would be positive or dumb) are allowed to comment - LOL.

Hint - there is an easy way for you to make sure to only read positive views on any stock you desire. Just stop reading discussion forums and write yourself every day as many positive notes as you desire. Obviously - you won't learn from this exercise and you might miss out on seeing risks others are aware of - but hey, you might feel really good until you monitor next time the share price, this is.

I certainly hope that people keep contributing their views from every angle on any stock, not just from my personal perspective. It is the diversity of thoughts which makes these forums so valuable.

[Gregnz]

Not sure how to put this in a nice way - however ... anybody who stands negative to a particular stock AND uses his (or her) brain would have sold out, wouldn't they?

This means that you just don't want to see any negative comments on stocks you like and hold. Only holders (who typically would be positive or dumb) are allowed to comment - LOL.

Hint - there is an easy way for you to make sure to only read positive views on any stock you desire. Just stop reading discussion forums and write yourself every day as many positive notes as you desire. Obviously - you won't learn from this exercise and you might miss out on seeing risks others are aware of - but hey, you might feel really good until you monitor next time the share price, this is.

I certainly hope that people keep contributing their views from every angle on any stock, not just from my personal perspective. It is the diversity of thoughts which makes these forums so valuable.

I agree with what you have said, hence why I have also previously said I also appreciate a contrarian view point. I would however question the motives of non holders suggesting the stock is a definite sell at these levels. Easy to suggest people sell out at current levels when you dont hold the stock.
I saw it happen on this forum when we were previously at $11 and several posters were encouraged to sell and did sell, only for the stock to recover above $12 several days later.

[Gregnz]

For the record. Coutts has had unlimited access to my advice and assistance from me for many years and has both my office and home phone numbers.
I have tried in vain over countless hundreds of hours and many years to get him to take a more professional and sensible approach to his investing (bearing in mind he is a very similar age to me and is investing joint matrimonial money). People started idolizing his go hard or go home approach. Out of frustration and a desire to help others I felt someone had to point out the risks and inappropriateness of that approach for someone of his age. I apologize if my approach offended anyone (including him) or came across as conceited or arrogant. My heart is to try and help others, (believe me, I have plenty already).

I am not a nasty person. I am widely misunderstood on here and have had a heart to help others with widespread objective posts on stocks I don't own but the cost of that approach is too high and I am getting too old and too financially comfortable to bother anymore. I'm too well fed and fat to go skiing with Coutts anymore anyway...it is what it is.

Beagle, I dont believe for a minute you are a nasty person. I think things got out of hand previously, and it's probably time we all moved on from that, myself included.

Its a new year, the past is the past, lets leave it there and move into 2021 on a more positive note. Happy new year.

[xp04]

Hope you change your mind later on in the year and become a guard dog again. Very helpful to us less experienced investors. Your recent posts on HLG, HGH, TRA, KFL, OCA etc have been quite insightful and again, helpful. However, I do understand if you choose not to given what Greg just posted..

one day you might realize that relying on other peoples "insights" is not that profitable

[BlackPeter]

I agree with what you have said, hence why I have also previously said I also appreciate a contrarian view point. I would however question the motives of non holders suggesting the stock is a definite sell at these levels. Easy to suggest people sell out at current levels when you dont hold the stock.
I saw it happen on this forum when we were previously at $11 and several posters were encouraged to sell and did sell, only for the stock to recover above $12 several days later.

So what? Look - NOBODY is able to predict future stock prices (BTW - this wisdom comes from Ben Graham ...), this includes anybody posting on share trader: Me, you and all the other posters. All posts are implicitly subtitled (just read the share trader conditions) with DYOR.

If anybody is buying just because somebody else said so or selling just because somebody else said so, than they frankly deserve to lose money. This forum is a platform to exchange views and ideas, not to predict future stock prices (which nobody can do).

Could we please keep it that way?

[Beagle]

Beagle, I dont believe for a minute you are a nasty person. I think things got out of hand previously, and it's probably time we all moved on from that, myself included.

Its a new year, the past is the past, lets leave it there and move into 2021 on a more positive note. Happy new year.

Happy to concede I probably got more than a little "dogmatic". We're all human and prone to weaknesses but I am also happy to be retiring from guard dog duties. Best wishes to all and I hope ATM recovers but for me, I won't be betting on that until the chart suggests a definite bottoming process is well underway. Lots of things should be left in the "2020 file" in my opinion, not the least of them by any means the (at times), very heated debate about repayment of the wage subsidies. Surely that topic has been thrashed about enough already !

[Rawz]

one day you might realize that relying on other peoples "insights" is not that profitable

Who said anything about relying on?
Helpful- yes. Insightful- yes.
Like I said above, take what you can from positive and negative viewpoints across sharetrader then continue on doing your own research and invest from there.

[Balance]

one day you might realize that relying on other peoples "insights" is not that profitable

Must qualify as one of the most naive comments I have seen on ST!

[xp04]

Must qualify as one of the most naive comments I have seen on ST!

You got me. Your comment surely much more valuable.

[BlackPeter]

OK - shall we talk for a change about ATM, shall we?

They are still on my watchlist and I could imagine buying some at some stage again. However ... this does not look like an uptrend:

12241

From a more fundamental perspective ...

Not sure I would call the board a sea of red flags, but they certainly didn't came smelling like roses out of the Hrdlicker saga. Is there any evidence that they have learned from their mistakes and been more skillful in picking the next CEO? Do we know when he starts anyway, or is he still pondering whether he really wants to take the job?

Looking into the history of the second down grade ... did anybody feel that they have a good command and understanding of their trade channels, or did it more feel like the downgrade crept upon them as surprise because they don't really understand their sales channels?
In my view was the story not really a recommendation for a switched on management team knowing what they are doing ....

ATM is still not really cheap. Sure - a forward PE of 21 combined with a forward growth CAGR of 25 sounds really sexy, but only if the analysts predictions come true. What evidence do we have that they might be right? If we learn from the past ... analysts said 12 months ago the stock is an accumulate (i.e. should grow better than average), but SP dropped in 12 months by 30 percent while NZX 50 did grow. Are we sure the same analysts are this time around righter?

Just saying ... I don't know where the stock goes from here - and nobody else does either, but I certainly would not bet the farm on them going up from here, and hey - as the legend KW used to say: "Never drink and buy into a downtrend, you bl**dy idi*t". Do I need to confirm that she was usually right :)?

Discl: not holding;

DYOR and do not sell or buy based just on my or anybody else's posts. They are only meant to provide some food for your own grey cells. "Do Your Own Research"

[Biscuit]

...."Never drink and buy into a downtrend, you bl**dy idi*t". .....

I often buy in a downtrend and it usually works out reasonably well (though not always, and I have lost my shirt previously doing that). I bought more ATM a couple of days ago. I see an export company with a proven ability for double digit profit growth, expanding into huge markets. I think the current woes are primarily covid-related and doubt there is any reason to see them as representing a fundamental change in the company or market. If that is true, the company will eventually resume growing and the share price will eventually recover.

[macduffy]

If that is true, the company will eventually resume growing and the share price will eventually recover.

Big word, that little "if"!

I've been investing for over 50 years and have made all the mistakes at least once. My biggest lesson has been not to buy in a downtrend but to wait until the worm turns. I miss the absolute bottom, but usually save a lot of angst for a very minor cost. Just my way, of course.

[kiora]

It pays to listen to veterans even if they are novices :)
No one could ever possibly know it all but some rules are definitely worth remembering

[Biscuit]

I've..... made all the mistakes at least once. ...

The first principle of science is to have sufficient replication in an experiment in order to attain significance. The second principle is to repeat all experiments several times until you are certain the result is consistent only then can you make a conclusion.

[xp04]

OK - shall we talk for a change about ATM, shall we?

They are still on my watchlist and I could imagine buying some at some stage again. However ... this does not look like an uptrend:

12241

From a more fundamental perspective ...

Not sure I would call the board a see of red flags, but they certainly didn't came smelling like roses out of the Hrdlicker saga. Is there any evidence that they have learned from their mistakes and been more skillful in picking the next CEO? Do we know when he starts anyway, or is he still pondering whether he really wants to take the job?

Looking into the history of the second down grade ... did anybody feel that they have a good command and understanding of their trade channels, or did it more feel like the downgrade crept upon them as surprise because they don't really understand their sales channels?
In my view was the story not really a recommendation for a switched on management team knowing what they are doing ....

ATM is still not really cheap. Sure - a forward PE of 21 combined with a forward growth CAGR of 25 sounds really sexy, but only if the analysts predictions come true. What evidence do we have that they might be right? If we learn from the past ... analysts said 12 months ago the stock is an accumulate (i.e. should grow better than average), but SP dropped in 12 months by 30 percent while NZX 50 did grow. Are we sure the same analysts are this time around righter?

Just saying ... I don't know where the stock goes from here - and nobody else does either, but I certainly would not bet the farm on them going up from here, and hey - as the legend KW used to say: "Never drink and buy into a downtrend, you bl**dy idi*t". Do I need to confirm that she was usually right :)?

Discl: not holding;

DYOR and do not sell or buy based just on my or anybody else's posts. They are only meant to provide some food for your own grey cells. "Do Your Own Research"

Don't see any uptrend either. However, "the trend is your friend, until the end when it bends". The question is when will it bend?


Is there any evidence that the board haven't learned from their mistakes? I'm guessing we would have to wait and see what new CEO has to offer until then it's just pure speculations. My understanding new CEO will start somewhat in February and there was no indication that he would not. Actually GB was saying that new CEO already somewhat involved.

Yes, their handling of sales channels recently was a big surprise. I would not say they do not understand it but clearly something went very wrong in the last few months.

Is ATM cheap? Is forward PE of 21 right one to estimate? I guess it depends on how one sees the company. Some see it as growth story with a temporary bump on the road others see it as failure with no much future or anything in between. Make your pick. My view is a bit more complicated but in general positive.

On the subject of when one should buy or sell for that matter my view is it's absolutely individual choice and nobody's else business. And I must confess some of my best ever investments decisions were made not in a "sober" state of mind.

[macduffy]

The first principle of science is to have sufficient replication in an experiment in order to attain significance. The second principle is to repeat all experiments several times until you are certain the result is consistent only then can you make a conclusion.

Interesting, but I've never thought of investing as a science! More like an art?

;)

[tomm]

My research showing me , this business doesn't have depth and it is expanding and it is investing for the future and the business is rolling, doesn't matter how it is.
I believe the double bottom SP is at $10.80 and it is for A2M and it is how it is, I don't wait for the bottom neither for reverse trend , if I feel it is ridiculous cheap I will buy, and if I think it is rediculous expensive , I will sell. Simple!

[Biscuit]

Interesting, but I've never thought of investing as a science! More like an art?

;)

Ha, yes I too think investing is an art. In science we need to rigorously test the "rules" in art it is best to discard them entirely.

[silu]

Wondering if sometimes it would be appropriate to disclose what investment time frame we expect from a holding. I expect to hold ATM for at least 5-10 years and I haven't found a company on the NZX yet where I expect that kind of EPS growth. But then I'm in the enviable position on having bought at 50c.

[Waltzing]

"The first principle of science is to have sufficient replication in an experiment in order to attain significance. The second principle is to repeat all experiments several times until you are certain the result is consistent only then can you make a conclusion."

something we do is to test the opposite. Repeating the experiment of course is great for check that your equipment is working.

often we find that not enough variations of input or range input data is not great enough to allow a conclusion.

[Biscuit]

Wondering if sometimes it would be appropriate to disclose what investment time frame we expect from a holding. I expect to hold ATM for at least 5-10 years and I haven't found a company on the NZX yet where I expect that kind of EPS growth. But then I'm in the enviable position on having bought at 50c.

My ideal holding timeframe is forever as I do not expect to ever liquidise the best investments which will be left to children and grandchildren (who will likely spend it all frivolously)

[Biscuit]

...... input data is not great enough to allow a conclusion.

People are programmed to draw conclusions without sufficient data - this is a form of confirmation bias. If you buy a share in a down turn and you lose your shirt you "learn" not to buy in a down turn because somewhere in the back of your mind you "knew" you shouldn't do that. If you buy a share in an up turn and you lose your shirt you don't "learn" anything because you didn't already know not to do that.

[silu]

My ideal holding timeframe is forever as I do not expect to ever liquidise the best investments which will be left to children and grandchildren (who will likely spend it all frivolously)

Haha good on ya for making money for your kids and grand kids. I am childfree and all my money will go to charity when I finally kick the bucket. My goal is to retire before I'm 65 financially secure and ready to set the world on fire (again).

[Leftfield]

Interesting, but I've never thought of investing as a science! More like an art? ;)

I think Snoopy would say investing is a science..... but definitely an art IMHO.

BTW good to see some useful discussion returning to this thread. Particularly like the longer term thinking of Biscuit and Silu. More my style.

[Balance]

Wondering if sometimes it would be appropriate to disclose what investment time frame we expect from a holding. I expect to hold ATM for at least 5-10 years and I haven't found a company on the NZX yet where I expect that kind of EPS growth. But then I'm in the enviable position on having bought at 50c.

And then, see it lose 45% in the last 4 months?

Prefer SKO myself!

[silu]

And then, see it lose 45% in the last 4 months?

Prefer SKO myself!

I admit I was asleep at the wheel. I would have taken some profit along the way but kept a sizeable parcel. You know I am a big supporter of Serko I just happen not to hold any at the moment.

[sb9]

I think Snoopy would say investing is a science..... but definitely an art IMHO.

BTW good to see some useful discussion returning to this thread. Particularly like the longer term thinking of Biscuit and Silu. More my style.

Well said, for a while I tht we were heading down the HC route

[Tomtom]

Ha, yes I too think investing is an art. In science we need to rigorously test the "rules" in art it is best to discard them entirely. Actually art has very strict rules.

[Brain]

I think Snoopy would say investing is a science..... but definitely an art IMHO.

BTW good to see some useful discussion returning to this thread. Particularly like the longer term thinking of Biscuit and Silu. More my style.

Investing may be a science but a very complex science. There are often too many moving parts to fully understand to come to a reliable conclusion. Investing as an art seems to have some merit as people do rely on gut instinct a lot.
All the variables and all the events that come out of left field seem to make investing more of a casino with some shares particularly the high growth ones.

[Akane]

People are programmed to draw conclusions without sufficient data - this is a form of confirmation bias. If you buy a share in a down turn and you lose your shirt you "learn" not to buy in a down turn because somewhere in the back of your mind you "knew" you shouldn't do that. If you buy a share in an up turn and you lose your shirt you don't "learn" anything because you didn't already know not to do that.

I have to agree with that, due to my experience with ATM (bought during the uptrend and then it tanked), I shyed away from NIO when it was uptrending, and look at NIO now, would've doubled my money if I didn't have this bad experience with ATM.

[winner69]

Wow so chief people officer Lisa snaking back to Virgin following pide piper Jane.

Probably realised new guy going to bring his ‘team’ on board

More upheaval at A2 HQ

[Biscuit]

Actually art has very strict rules.

Maybe, can you name one?

[Brain]

Maybe, can you name one?

I can’t think of any. Picasso and his mates might have thrown the rule book in the Bin.

[Leftfield]

Maybe, can you name one?

How about;

Rule #1 - There are no rules.
Rule #2 - Any rule can be broken (I think Picasso said this)

[tomm]

Milk Containing A2 β-Casein ONLY, as a Single Meal, Causes Fewer Symptoms of Lactose Intolerance than Milk Containing A1 and A2 β-Caseins in Subjects with Lactose Maldigestion and Intolerance: A Randomized, Double-Blind, Crossover Trialhttps://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33348621/

[tomm]

This is from National Library of Medicine.

Effects of milk containing only A2 beta casein versus milk containing both A1 and A2 beta casein proteins on gastrointestinal physiology, symptoms of discomfort, and cognitive behavior of people with self-reported intolerance to traditional cows' milk


https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/27039383/

Now I can understand and firmly confident to say A2 Milk indeed is helping my Autism cousin despite they big pharmac don't want to make it big or letting people know , no wonder A2 Milk is getting so popular as more and more consumers are aware of it by their own experiments.
The future will tell , A2 Milk will replace the traditional so they called milk.

[dobby41]

The future will tell , A2 Milk will replace the traditional so they called milk.

If a small minority of people are better off with A2 (or A1 free) milk and A1 milk producing cows produce more milk than A2 producing cows (hence produce cheaper milk (which is how 'common' milk became A1 dominant)) do you really think A2 will replace A1 rather than supplement it for those who need it?

[tomm]

If a small minority of people are better off with A2 (or A1 free) milk and A1 milk producing cows produce more milk than A2 producing cows (hence produce cheaper milk (which is how 'common' milk became A1 dominant)) do you really think A2 will replace A1 rather than supplement it for those who need it?
In the world with full of misleading nowaday , people need to experiment for themselves instead of listening to those scientific approval... it's just dragging us to work generations by generations and spending on things which you can have it for free surrounding us, they will come to limit your "free" sources and making us working and spending on their so called scientific approval. I think at the moment the millennia tend to lean and bases on informations which they are provided instead of aware and experiments the life like us use to be. There will be another problem when they do approved A2 Milk is the milk. For now the facts will just be ignored but will be popular amongst the smart people.

Remember cows use to have only A2 but by some how it is genetics changed for some reasons we do not know.
The autism's rate is rocket from 1 to 1000 children to 1 in 54 children with in 10 years for some reason , we do not know.
But for some reason, they do have data on how much you earn/ where you are, what you type, how much water you use/day...!

[Scrunch]

... I am retiring from guard dog duties on any share I don't own and that specifically also includes, (but is certainly not limited too) Synlait....

...I remain happy to opine on any company in which I have a financial interest.

It would be beneficial to others, and possibly yourself if that was extended to companies you are researching / reviewing with a view to potential future investment, or have recently decided to sell out of.

[dobby41]

In the world with full of misleading nowaday , people need to experiment for themselves instead of listening to those scientific approval... it's just dragging us to work generations by generations and spending on things which you can have it for free surrounding us, they will come to limit your "free" sources and making us working and spending on their so called scientific approval. I think at the moment the millennia tend to lean and bases on informations which they are provided instead of aware and experiments the life like us use to be. There will be another problem when they do approved A2 Milk is the milk. For now the facts will just be ignored but will be popular amongst the smart people.

Remember cows use to have only A2 but by some how it is genetics changed for some reasons we do not know.
The autism's rate is rocket from 1 to 1000 children to 1 in 54 children with in 10 years for some reason , we do not know.
But for some reason, they do have data on how much you earn/ where you are, what you type, how much water you use/day...!

A bit hard to read!
I wasn't suggesting that A2 didn't have benefits for certain groups of people but had singled out your idea that A2 will replace 'traditional' milk.

The genetics didn't change - rather they found certain cow breeds produced more milk so selected them, just so happened that those breeds produced predominantly A1 milk.

[Leftfield]

This is from National Library of Medicine.

Effects of milk containing only A2 beta casein versus milk containing both A1 and A2 beta casein proteins on gastrointestinal physiology, symptoms of discomfort, and cognitive behavior of people with self-reported intolerance to traditional cows' milk


https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/27039383/

Now I can understand and firmly confident to say A2 Milk indeed is helping my Autism cousin despite they big pharmac don't want to make it big or letting people know , no wonder A2 Milk is getting so popular as more and more consumers are aware of it by their own experiments.
The future will tell , A2 Milk will replace the traditional so they called milk.

Thanks for posting Tomm.

[Habits]

In the world with full of misleading nowaday , people need to experiment for themselves instead of listening to those scientific approval... it's just dragging us to work generations by generations and spending on things which you can have it for free surrounding us, they will come to limit your "free" sources and making us working and spending on their so called scientific approval. I think at the moment the millennia tend to lean and bases on informations which they are provided instead of aware and experiments the life like us use to be. There will be another problem when they do approved A2 Milk is the milk. For now the facts will just be ignored but will be popular amongst the smart people.

Remember cows use to have only A2 but by some how it is genetics changed for some reasons we do not know.
The autism's rate is rocket from 1 to 1000 children to 1 in 54 children with in 10 years for some reason , we do not know.
But for some reason, they do have data on how much you earn/ where you are, what you type, how much water you use/day...!
No if the incidence of autism increased over ten years (and that sounds about right) then A1 milk is not to blame. You probably arent aware that the retail price of milk increased much more than other drinks since the 1980s so less milk is consumed per person. Less healthy options like soft drinks have rocketed up

[LEMON]

No if the incidence of autism increased over ten years (and that sounds about right) then A1 milk is not to blame. You probably aren't aware that the retail price of milk increased much more than other drinks since the 1980s so less milk is consumed per person. Less healthy options like soft drinks have rocketed up

Would you not say that's due to the advertisement. Also, takeaway foods normally stock soft drinks plus bars would sell soft drinks along with spirits.

Could ATM not move into ice creams etc in the future?

[Newman]

You need to check from whom the authors in China got funding for their research project.

[tomm]

You need to check from whom the authors in China got funding for their research project.
It doesn't matter , the matter is that the result is in the NATIONAL LIBRARY of MEDICINE !

[Mr Slothbear]

You need to check from whom the authors in China got funding for their research project.


when its peer reviewed it doesn’t matter who funds or funded the research

there is zero doubt about the health effects
I drink a lot of milk, normally at least a litre a day, often more and notice a massive difference in how my stomach feels depending on whether its standard or A2.

[alokdhir]

when its peer reviewed it doesn’t matter who funds or funded the research

there is zero doubt about the health effects
I drink a lot of milk, normally at least a litre a day, often more and notice a massive difference in how my stomach feels depending on whether its standard or A2.

I will second your thoughts ...though I am not allergic to regular milk ( A1 + A2 type ) but I prefer A2 only as it makes me feel better ...I am also big milk drinker since childhood ....though now doctors advise me to go slow on only dairy milk and explore some non dairy options ...not because of any problems but as precaution .

A2 surely is better option . But any A2 will do not just from ATM is also a valid point here

[dobby41]

A2 surely is better option . But any A2 will do not just from ATM is also a valid point here

A2 (generic) is a better option if you have issues with A1 - otherwise why pay more?

[Gerald]

Milford recently lightened up or completely sold out of A2 in its largest fund. TA still looks bad.

[Mr Slothbear]

A2 (generic) is a better option if you have issues with A1 - otherwise why pay more?

when it comes to A2 milk I have two options, The A2 milk company or a single farm brand from close to nelson which is double the price of A2mcompany milk. Makes financial sense to support the company I own shares in. A large moat ATM possess is their capture of the A2 milk supply which is a large moat.

[lissica]

It doesn't matter , the matter is that the result is in the NATIONAL LIBRARY of MEDICINE !

That doesn't mean a lot without reading the article.

I am curious how they assessed inflammation using a pill cam, with any degree of sensitivity or specificity. There must be significant inflammation to be visible macroscopically and big difference between the control/intervention to tell them apart.

The biochemical markers may be statistically significant, but it doesn't necessarily mean it's clinically significant.

[Balance]

Milford recently lightened up or completely sold out of A2 in its largest fund. TA still looks bad.

Lightened up :

"Elsewhere, a2 Milk surprised the market with a profit downgrade. We still hold a2 Milk in the Fund, however it had been reduced from a large overweight position on evidence of pantry stocking by Chinese mothers in April. Since then a2 has had one of its three major distribution channels, the daigou channel, severely impacted by flow on effects from COVID-19 and increased competition. The company remains on watch for signs that management have the situation back under control."

Milford's moves are well worthwhile taking note as they have a rather rigorous process in place before they invest in or divest out of any investment.

[alokdhir]

Lightened up :

"Elsewhere, a2 Milk surprised the market with a profit downgrade. We still hold a2 Milk in the Fund, however it had been reduced from a large overweight position on evidence of pantry stocking by Chinese mothers in April. Since then a2 has had one of its three major distribution channels, the daigou channel, severely impacted by flow on effects from COVID-19 and increased competition. The company remains on watch for signs that management have the situation back under control."

Milford's moves are well worthwhile taking note as they have a rather rigorous process in place before they invest in or divest out of any investment.

Another major holder Fisher funds and its managed KFL also reduced position just before the December downgrade ...but they still hold it 8% of the fund ..No 5 largest holding ...they also have rigorous process of stock selections

TA tells us another panic bottom is needed ...which can cause that ? Still its not gone below second panic bottom of 10.47 yet ...holding around 10.80 levels ...but with a downward bias .

Maybe market waits for HY results announcement ...HY value we know but thats first opportunity for company to address future guide

That maybe the trigger on both side big movement

I personally think if ATM had not Halted trading for 2 days then 10.47 panic would not have happened

[silu]

tbh I don't even remember at this stage. Have we had 2 or 3 profit downgrades already?

[alokdhir]

tbh I don't even remember at this stage. Have we had 2 or 3 profit downgrades already?

Two ...One in late Sept and other in Dec

Both tanked stock 20% + each !!

[silu]

Two ...One in late Sept and other in Dec

Both tanked stock 20% + each !!

Thanks. I fear the old adage might come true.

[alokdhir]

Thanks. I fear the old adage might come true.

For me its 50/50 ...so can invest part now and save the other part after any announcement ...either good or bad :D

[Balance]

https://www.fool.com.au/2021/01/21/3-reasons-why-the-a2-milk-share-price-could-be-a-buy/

Could be a buy.

Bet you when sp moves up, article will change to ‘is a buy!’

[davflaws]

https://www.fool.com.au/2021/01/21/3-reasons-why-the-a2-milk-share-price-could-be-a-buy/

Could be a buy.

Bet you when sp moves up, article will change to ‘is a buy!’

That makes sense to me. Doesn't conventional wisdom suggest you should wait until an uptrend is confirmed before entering? Or have I misunderstood something?

[bull....]

we are still short riding the trend down. nothing has changed fundamentally at the moment in regards to the factors affecting a2 sales etc at the moment. be strong stay with the trend.

[alokdhir]

we are still short riding the trend down. nothing has changed fundamentally at the moment in regards to the factors affecting a2 sales etc at the moment. be strong stay with the trend.

Are the shorter doing their own market research or just depending on gut feel ? When will they know about any changes at grass root level ...thru company announcement or their own research ? If thru company announcement then stock will open 20% up and then what will they do ? Just curious as in my view shorters also playing with fire at these levels ...playing casino :p

[bull....]

Are the shorter doing their own market research or just depending on gut feel ? When will they know about any changes at grass root level ...thru company announcement or their own research ? If thru company announcement then stock will open 20% up and then what will they do ? Just curious as in my view shorters also playing with fire at these levels ...playing casino :p

i do my own research. read the thread. I explained on this thread why a2 was past it at the moment well before anyone else here to much abuse of course and dis belief , even the beagle was well behind the bull on this.
even mentioned a number of times as well on here that feihe was the new best thing of course to much dis belief lol . what ya know feihe is at all time highs , a2 at all time lows.

fundamanetals will change again one day but at the moment it is down down down

[alokdhir]

i do my own research. read the thread. I explained on this thread why a2 was past it at the moment well before anyone else here to much abuse of course and dis belief , even the beagle was well behind the bull on this.
even mentioned a number of times as well on here that feihe was the new best thing of course to much dis belief lol . what ya know feihe is at all time highs , a2 at all time lows.

fundamanetals will change again one day but at the moment it is down down down

Ok as u say . U seem to have strong conviction that ATM is going below $ 10 . Will wait to see what happens .

Disclose : No position but following for learning how a strong company SP behaves during a down trend and also want to learn what to know to short a stock at low levels !

[Balance]

That makes sense to me. Doesn't conventional wisdom suggest you should wait until an uptrend is confirmed before entering? Or have I misunderstood something?

Courage of conviction is what I was taught years ago when considering whether an analyst's research and recommendation is worth following.

Does not mean the analyst is going to make the right call (call is for you to decide) but an analyst who's prepared to state Buy or Sell, rather than a placid 'hold' or 'neutral' usually provides compelling reasons as to why.

So this 'could be a buy' comment in the article is a nothing call.

[Waltzing]

chart indicates the next support level are under 10 and under 8.

While we would love to say its a buy for us the geo risk is still alive and the data will provide a buy or sell signal.

This one is getting to hard to pick until you see the numbers.

[Gregnz]

A lot hinges on the results. I dont for a minute think that the large institutional holders who last time I checked held between 70%-80% of all available shares (who are still buying like Blackrock) will sit back and let the share price crash to $8 even if the technicals suggest it should.

[BlackPeter]

A lot hinges on the results. I dont for a minute think that the large institutional holders who last time I checked held between 70%-80% of all available shares (who are still buying like Blackrock) will sit back and let the share price crash to $8 even if the technicals suggest it should.

Why would large institutional shareholders want to manipulate the share price? They bought the shares for a reason and the day to day price of the share does not matter a bit to them (well, maybe for the annual bonus of the fund manager, but I doubt they will manipulate the ATM share price to fix that issue).

[Gregnz]

Why would large institutional shareholders want to manipulate the share price? They bought the shares for a reason and the day to day price of the share does not matter a bit to them (well, maybe for the annual bonus of the fund manager, but I doubt they will manipulate the ATM share price to fix that issue).

Sorry, I think you misunderstood what I wrote. I didn't say manipulate, I'm fairly certain they will start to increase their holdings if they see long term value and a declining share price. The big holders buying will be enough to mitigate any major fall in share price.

[Balance]

Sorry, I think you misunderstood what I wrote. I didn't say manipulate, I'm fairly certain they will start to increase their holdings if they see long term value and a declining share price. The big holders buying will be enough to mitigate any major fall in share price.

That's like saying that hens lay eggs and eggs hatch into chickens!

Pertinent issue is where the institutions see long term value! If there's a third downgrade (high probability) after the new CEO has properly put his feet under the table and go through all the workings of the first two downgrades, long term value may be $7.50!

[Gregnz]

That's like saying that hens lay eggs and eggs hatch into chickens!

Pertinent issue is where the institutions see long term value! If there's a third downgrade (high probability) after the new CEO has properly put his feet under the table and go through all the workings of the first two downgrades, long term value may be $7.50!

Yes, hence why I said a lot hinges on the results. If there isnt a 3rd downgrade (and they dont always come in threes) and guidance is achieved, they might see long term value at $20+. My guess is as good as everyone elses at this point.

[winner69]

With full year npat guidance (implied) between $250m and $320m they've given themselves plenty of wiggle room that another downgrade probably won't be necessary anyway

[Gregnz]

With full year npat guidance (implied) between $250m and $320m they've given themselves plenty of wiggle room that another downgrade probably won't be necessary anyway

Yes agree. I don’t believe they halted trading for 3 days just to fudge some numbers in the hope of Daigou returning before results are delivered. There are a few calculations floating around which imply that it’s pretty difficult not to achieve guidance, time will tell.

[Balance]

With full year npat guidance (implied) between $250m and $320m they've given themselves plenty of wiggle room that another downgrade probably won't be necessary anyway

Consensus forecast is for $277m so that will be the number to watch?

[BlackPeter]

Sorry, I think you misunderstood what I wrote. I didn't say manipulate, I'm fairly certain they will start to increase their holdings if they see long term value and a declining share price. The big holders buying will be enough to mitigate any major fall in share price.

Fair enough. I think however that balance has a good point.

If fair value drops after the next result, it will drop for everybody and the institutions won't have a reason to support anything above that. If you think that fair value is above $10 (or any other particular number), than you must already know the next results - do you?

If ATM however surprises the market in a positive way at next result time (personally i think this is unlikely, but hey - your guess is as good as mine), than obviously SP will go up - no need for institutions to push up price, in that case shorters will happily do the job :):

Discl: neither short nor long, but interested observer.

[Balance]

Fair enough. I think however that balance has a good point.

If fair value drops after the next result, it will drop for everybody and the institutions won't have a reason to support anything above that. If you think that fair value is above $10 (or any other particular number), than you must already know the next results - do you?

If ATM however surprises the market in a positive way at next result time (personally i think this is unlikely, but hey - your guess is as good as mine), than obviously SP will go up - no need for institutions to push up price, in that case shorters will happily do the job :):

Discl: neither short nor long, but interested observer.

Not sure about happily but there's certainly a truckload of shorts to cover!

[Pegasus2000]

Morgan Stanley seems to keep buying ATM over 5% until 20 Jan 2021


SPH Notice - Morgan Stanley and its Subsidiaries - NZX, New Zealand’s Exchange (https://www.nzx.com/announcements/366660)

25/1/2021, 5:10 pm Please see attached a Substantial Product Holder Notice for Morgan Stanley and its Subsidiaries in The a2 Milk Company Limited ("ATM").

Disclosure of beginning to have substantial holding
Section 276, Financial Markets Conduct Act 2013
To NZX Limited
and
To A2 MILK CO LTD (ATM)
Date this disclosure made: 25 January, 2021
Date on which substantial holding began: 20 January, 2021
Substantial product holder(s) giving disclosure
Full name(s): Morgan Stanley and its Subsidiaries listed in Annexure A
Summary of substantial holding
Class of quoted voting products: Ordinary Shares
Summary for Morgan Stanley and its Subsidiaries listed in Annexure A
For this disclosure,—

(a) total number held in class: 37,173,201
(b) total in class: 742,606,937
(c) total percentage held in class: 5.006%

[Ggcc]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/366676

Another increasing their holding

[winner69]

All these big instos like MS, Mitsi etc etc seem to keep buying and selling and make regular disclosures when they go up and down 1% or when they go over or under 5%

To me it doesn’t really tell me much about what they really think of A2 beyond they own heaps of them ....as such I feel some get hung up on these disclosures and read things into them what aren’t really there.

[Ggcc]

All these big instos like MS, Mitsi etc etc seem to keep buying and selling and make regular disclosures when they go up and down 1% or when they go over or under 5%

To me it doesn’t really tell me much about what they really think of A2 beyond they own heaps of them ....as such I feel some get hung up on these disclosures and read things into them what aren’t really there.
There is a lot of truth in that, as most instos seem to be trading a hell of a lot of these shares, more than holding them.

[bull....]

a lot of the insto's trade there long term holdings all the time. you would never know cause must of it falls under the levels of not having to disclose

[Gregnz]

Given that MUFG (Mitsubishi Financial Group) own Morgan Stanley, I'd say the two notices are related.

[Leftfield]

NZ & China renew free trade agreement

By 1 Jan 2024, all NZ diary exports to China will be duty free.

RNZ article here. (https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/435211/new-zealand-and-china-upgrade-free-trade-agreement)

Nice boost to SP today.

[Gregnz]

NZ & China renew free trade agreement

By 1 Jan 2024, all NZ diary exports to China will be duty free.

RNZ article here. (https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/435211/new-zealand-and-china-upgrade-free-trade-agreement)

Nice boost to SP today.

Good to see it signed. It was basically a done deal back in November, but I guess it's not a done deal until pens hit the paper.

[Balance]

NZ & China renew free trade agreement

By 1 Jan 2024, all NZ diary exports to China will be duty free.

RNZ article here. (https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/435211/new-zealand-and-china-upgrade-free-trade-agreement)

Nice boost to SP today.

Marginal benefit to dairy sector imo as NZ has enjoyed preferential access & tariffs to China - eg. NZ IF already is tariff free into China.

[Gregnz]

Marginal benefit to dairy sector imo as NZ has enjoyed preferential access & tariffs to China - eg. NZ IF already is tariff free into China.

Geopolitical tensions have been top of mind and topic of discussion for months, so I see this as being confirmation of basically throwing any geopolitical tension out the window for dairy exports from NZ.
All we need now is to continually remind people that A2 is in fact a NZ company... seems most Australians including the media think it belongs to them (much like the Pavlova, and Phar lap the Horse)

[Waltzing]

starting to form a micro base here.

[Leftfield]

starting to form a micro base here.

I agree..... early days but TA looking encouraging IMHO.

Having said that, I've probably put a hex on it. lol.

(Disc - free hold enough, so not adding. DYOR.)

[Biscuit]

I agree..... early days but TA looking encouraging IMHO.....

Is "micro base" really a thing? Does the wiggly line look any different from the wiggly line just before the last two precipitous plunges?

[alokdhir]

From past experiences it seems to be following the same holding pattern ...wont make its move either side, only after letting management enlighten market .

So 10.80 holds and now testing the upper limits ...let'c see where courageous shorters come out :D

[Biscuit]

...now testing the upper limits ...

"upper limits" meaning the highest level it got to; "testing" meaning going up to that level? how are these different?

[alokdhir]

"upper limits" meaning the highest level it got to; "testing" meaning going up to that level? how are these different?

It means testing the upper limits ...trying to find out where maximum it can go without any positive news !!

[Gregnz]

From past experiences it seems to be following the same holding pattern ...wont make its move either side, only after letting management enlighten market .

So 10.80 holds and now testing the upper limits ...let'c see where courageous shorters come out :D

Shorters now just have to hope that the results miss guidance. I'm personally surprised with the uptick in the share price, which I can only put down to the signing of the upgraded trade agreement. This agreement was basically done and dusted and announced last November, so I would have thought it was already priced into the SP. Obviously the market was waiting for pen to paper.
If guidance is achieved, even the lower end of the range given, the SP will head north again, and at that point shorters will have missed out on a decent % of profit, had they locked in those profits at recent lows. Is this a case of bigger risk, less reward?

[Waltzing]

"Is "micro base" really a thing?"

it not on any web site but it's taking license...

[Biscuit]

It means testing the upper limits ...trying to find out where maximum it can go without any positive news !!

Looking at the ATM squiggly line over the last two years, if you mark the position of all the upwardly pointy bits, are they not randomly distributed? How is anything being tested?

[Leftfield]

Looking at the ATM squiggly line over the last two years, if you mark the position of all the upwardly pointy bits, are they not randomly distributed? How is anything being tested?

Being tested in much the same way as my patience is being tested by the continued drop in ATM's SP..... lol......

Anyway all will be clear in 2-3 months.

[alokdhir]

Shorters now just have to hope that the results miss guidance. I'm personally surprised with the uptick in the share price, which I can only put down to the signing of the upgraded trade agreement. This agreement was basically done and dusted and announced last November, so I would have thought it was already priced into the SP. Obviously the market was waiting for pen to paper.
If guidance is achieved, even the lower end of the range given, the SP will head north again, and at that point shorters will have missed out on a decent % of profit, had they locked in those profits at recent lows. Is this a case of bigger risk, less reward?

U need to wait for August results to see guidance missed or not as this upcoming Feb HY results will be 670 mil as informed on 18th Dec ...that cant change too much in 14 days . Market will look for either some positive statement or upgrade of FY guidance to move . If they keep quite on both these subjects then its safe to assume nothing much changed after 18th Dec announcement

[Biscuit]

Being tested in much the same way as my patience is being tested by the continued drop in ATM's SP..... lol......

Anyway all will be clear in 2-3 months.

I must admit, Left Field, that I like the price of shares I own to go up. Logically though, unless you are keen to sell, there is no financial reason to want the price to go up and the lower it goes the better, as there is more opportunity to buy at a discount to what you think it is worth. Psychologically we want the price to go up to confirm our wisdom about what we think the price should be.

[Leftfield]

I must admit, Left Field, that I like the price of shares I own to go up. Logically though, unless you are keen to sell, there is no financial reason to want the price to go up and the lower it goes the better, as there is more opportunity to buy at a discount to what you think it is worth. Psychologically we want the price to go up to confirm our wisdom about what we think the price should be.

You are not alone...most of us like upwards movements in SP (unless you're a shorter)

I guess what we have been talking about is 'picking the bottom' of a downtrend because at some stage a 'sell' often becomes a 'buy'.

I'm not prepared to call this the 'bottom' and will leave that to others as I'm already over represented in ATM and am happy to hold what I have for the long term.

For others wanting some bargain ATM in their portfolio, I'm sure there will come a time.

[Gregnz]

Will be interesting to see when the shorts start to cover, after all they have approx 60 million shares to purchase to close their positions, close to $700 million NZD's worth. Thats a decent number of trading days even if average volume traded doubled or tripled.

[dreamcatcher]

Will be interesting to see when the shorts start to cover, after all they have approx 60 million shares to purchase to close their positions, close to $700 million NZD's worth. Thats a decent number of trading days even if average volume traded doubled or tripled.

Management may choose to announce a buy-back or dividend which should add wings to the stock..........:p

[Gregnz]

Management may choose to announce a buy-back or dividend which should add wings to the stock..........:p

Personally I’d prefer they didn’t, I feel the share price will recover without that intervention.
I guess the time will come when the cash on hand reaches a level which warrants commencement of a dividend, but I’d prefer they invest the money in acquisitions which will provide future growth.
That being said, it’s all very well for them to say they can invest the money more wisely than shareholders for a better return, but it’s yet to be seen what they intend to spend it on. The Mataura valley purchase and consumer packaging expansion barely dents the cash on hand, considering it was $850+ million at last update, and has likely increased since the last annual report.

[Waltzing]

what is the ratio of containers going back to china empty or full of exports. it appears US exports have been left on the docks since july, 3 in 4 containers are back to china empty as china takes it containers back as fast as it can.

[Biscuit]

....I guess what we have been talking about is 'picking the bottom' of a downtrend because at some stage a 'sell' often becomes a 'buy'.

I'm not prepared to call this the 'bottom' .....

I'm in a skeptical mood about the capacity of TA to predict anything. You can tell what the sentiment was and maybe that can be useful in trying to guess what the sentiment will be (like the weather, if it was raining an hour ago there is a better than average probability that it will be raining in an hours time) but that is the most you can get out of reading the tea leaves, is it not? There is momentum in one direction untill enough people change their silly minds and then there is momentum in the other direction for a while.

[Leftfield]

TA works well for me (most of the time)..... must say I haven't tried tea leaves. Prefer coffee.

Each to his/her own.

Meanwhile some deck chair shuffling at A2. (https://www.nzx.com/announcements/366813) Susan Massasso leaving..... but not really leaving 'cos she will stay on as an 'advisor' (no doubt a well paid advisor.) Interesting times.

Meanwhile interesting times for funds funding shorters. (https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/jan/27/gamestop-stock-market-retail-wall-street)

[Waltzing]

its everything... the Baltic D.

the empty containers...

the defaults in the BM's.

[Biscuit]

TA works well for me (most of the time)..... must say I haven't tried tea leaves. Prefer coffee.....

Yeah, coffee gives a more optimistic prediction.

[Mr Slothbear]

Confused why you guys are trying to read tea leaves when theres an important announcement that we’re losing our Susan.

almost as bad as losing Geoff

[Gregnz]

Confused why you guys are trying to read tea leaves when theres an important announcement that we’re losing our Susan.

almost as bad as losing Geoff

We’ve known since last year when she announced she would be leaving. Today’s announcement simply confirms the date.

[Biscuit]

We’ve known since last year when she announced she would be leaving. Today’s announcement simply confirms the date.

Also, she's not really leaving, just getting paid more for more flexible working conditions, clever Susan.

[Gregnz]

Also, she's not really leaving, just getting paid more for more flexible working conditions, clever Susan.

yes, must admit today’s news is good. Last years news suggested she was leaving completely. Today’s news reaffirms she’s remaining in an advisory capacity.

I expect when the new CEO starts, he will most likely want to bring some of his own people on, this happens in most large organisations with a change of CEO.

[RTM]

Meanwhile interesting times for funds funding shorters. (https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/jan/27/gamestop-stock-market-retail-wall-street)

Thanks....interesting link.

[sb9]

Looks like BUB's quarterly report has some positive view of corporate daigou channel showing signs of improvement.
A similar commentary from A2 at release of HY report next month would see this soar..

[silu]

Looks like BUB's quarterly report has some positive view of corporate daigou channel showing signs of improvement.
A similar commentary from A2 at release of HY report next month would see this soar..

A blue up tick on a day like today feels like it's soaring already.

[101nick101]

I remain bearish, I could easily see this returning to $10.50 or lower soon.

[Gregnz]

I remain bearish, I could easily see this returning to $10.50 or lower soon.

You must know something we don’t, what do you foresee that will push it as low as $10.50?

[winner69]

Stats NZ bold headline

Dairy exports to China down in December

Leading the total falls in December 2020 were milk powder, down $227 million

https://www.stats.govt.nz/news/dairy-exports-to-china-down-in-december

[Gregnz]

Stats NZ bold headline

Dairy exports to China down in December

Leading the total falls in December 2020 were milk powder, down $227 million

https://www.stats.govt.nz/news/dairy-exports-to-china-down-in-december

Coincides with the container shortages that NZ also experienced primarily in December.

12257

[sb9]

Solid finish on BUB chart last night, up 23% on good volume. Could well be shorts covering and pushing higher, let's see what's in store for them on A2 front.

[Waltzing]

with no bad news its risk on for this stock and it may be its being traded rather then held.

[Waltzing]

The cancellations in containers is a potential problem that we dont normally look into at the shipper level and the sales departments appear to be as bad as an Aussi bank on cup day. Sorry that container booking i sold you has been cancelled. Exporting good is not the perfect booking system we imagine it to be.