ATM - A2 Milk Corporation Limited

[Leftfield]

The cancellations in containers is a potential problem that we dont normally look into at the shipper level and the sales departments appear to be as bad as an Aussi bank on cup day. Sorry that container booking i sold you has been cancelled. Exporting good is not the perfect booking system we imagine it to be.

Ssssoo you shorting ATM then??

[dreamcatcher]

Great reading of the Reddit investors actions regarding shorts...........who will they be targeting next.

"Webjet, Tassal Group, Inghams Group and InvoCareHeavily-shorted Australian stocks including these companies all rose on Thursday against an overall fall of Sydney’s benchmark ASX 200 index."

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/jan/28/reddit-investor-army-taking-battle-global-ailing-stocks-hedge-funds

[Balance]

Great reading of the Reddit investors actions regarding shorts...........who will they be targeting next.

"Webjet, Tassal Group, Inghams Group and InvoCareHeavily-shorted Australian stocks including these companies all rose on Thursday against an overall fall of Sydney’s benchmark ASX 200 index."

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/jan/28/reddit-investor-army-taking-battle-global-ailing-stocks-hedge-funds


Will be a sight to watch indeed if ATM gets the same action!

[Sideshow Bob]

A2 have airfreighted product at times - and although more costly, would expect less costly than missing sales or being out of stock. Airfreight prices up to China are pretty similar to pre-Covid, as the Govt are subsidising routes to keep stuff moving.

Reefer availability is particularly bad at the moment, unsure on GP containers. Problem is some Chinese ports are closed with Covid and congestion, which has been exacerbated by upcoming Chinese New Year celebrations. The container merry-go-round isn't going fast enough.

[sb9]

Great reading of the Reddit investors actions regarding shorts...........who will they be targeting next.

"Webjet, Tassal Group, Inghams Group and InvoCare

Heavily-shorted Australian stocks including these companies all rose on Thursday against an overall fall of Sydney’s benchmark ASX 200 index."

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/jan/28/reddit-investor-army-taking-battle-global-ailing-stocks-hedge-funds


Interesting read, is it case of David Vs Goliath???

[Gregnz]

This was interesting, a possible further explanation for the drop in dairy exports in Dec:

"The co-op, in its latest global update, said China dairy import volumes increased by 10 per cent or 28,565 tonnes in November compared to the same period last year.
Westpac agri economist Nathan Penny was not reading too much into the December data,
"November was strong, so it's natural that it came back a bit," Penny said.
"When you look at the seasonal pattern and the 12-month total, there is nothing that really jumps out at you. I think it's just a timing issue," he said.
"They are big numbers and if one container ship gets processed a day or two earlier rather than later, then a big chunk of product can fall into one month and not the other," he said.
Penny noted Global Dairy Trade auction prices had started 2021 on a strong note, and he expected prices to tick up again at next week's auction.
ASB chief economist Nick Tuffley said demand from China remained incredibly strong, but there were some likely timing issues around export shipments.
"The underlying story still seems to be fairly encouraging," he said."

[Leftfield]

Great reading of the Reddit investors actions regarding shorts...........who will they be targeting next.

"Webjet, Tassal Group, Inghams Group and InvoCare

Heavily-shorted Australian stocks including these companies all rose on Thursday against an overall fall of Sydney’s benchmark ASX 200 index."

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/jan/28/reddit-investor-army-taking-battle-global-ailing-stocks-hedge-funds



Mmmm we sure live in interesting times.

However, there is a huge difference between Gameshop which reputedly had 120% of its shares shorted (yes more shares shorted than on issue!!??) when compared to ATM's 7.9% shorted (at 22 Jan)

That said shorting brokers rushing to cover their Gameshop and/or other short obligations may be forced sell other non related shares to cover their mounting debt.

Will there be implications for ATM..... who know's!!?? Interesting times.

[bottomfeeder]

Where do you go to find out the number of shorter on companies on the NZX

[Leftfield]

Where do you go to find out the number of shorter on companies on the NZX

There is no shorting on NZX. However ASX allows it and ASX data is available here (https://www.shortman.com.au/stock?q=a2m) but note data is delayed.

[alokdhir]

There is no shorting on NZX. However ASX allows it and ASX data is available here (https://www.shortman.com.au/stock?q=a2m) but note data is delayed.

Like many have pointed out that after seeing what happened to shorters in US ...many may have started booking their profits in ATM ...which can be one of the reason why its become pretty buoyant in the last week or so ...U can easily feel its SP got a bullish sentiment and feel to it these days ...unlike before .

It will be very interesting to keep watch on delayed Shortman data ...I am curious if only short covering is the reason of this bullish feel or something else more substantial is cooking ...I understand Feb HY announcement is due in last week ...apart from tinkering with FY guidance nothing much is expected in actual reporting ...surely 670 cant become 700 !!

Also if shorts are covering slowly and if we see last friday figures to be only 5% short then what happens ....still a big if ...but very curious to find out whats going on for some real buying interest in ATM these days

[Gregnz]

Like many have pointed out that after seeing what happened to shorters in US ...many may have started booking their profits in ATM ...which can be one of the reason why its become pretty buoyant in the last week or so ...U can easily feel its SP got a bullish sentiment and feel to it these days ...unlike before .

It will be very interesting to keep watch on delayed Shortman data ...I am curious if only short covering is the reason of this bullish feel or something else more substantial is cooking ...I understand Feb HY announcement is due in last week ...apart from tinkering with FY guidance nothing much is expected in actual reporting ...surely 670 cant become 700 !!

Also if shorts are covering slowly and if we see last friday figures to be only 5% short then what happens ....still a big if ...but very curious to find out whats going on for some real buying interest in ATM these days

Personally, I dont think the bullish sentiment is due to short covering. It appears to be more timed to the announcement of the signing of the upgraded trade deal (which personally surprises me as the trade deal was done and dusted last November). When short covering does start, that could lead to one almighty short squeeze. Id personally be quite worried if I held a short position in a company, with 60 million other short positions open. Any ounce of good news pushing the share price higher will see any profits on a short position quickly disappear, or potentially mean if they cant close their position in time (buy back shares) they may well end up paying more for them than when they took out the short position (as has happened nearly every other year). Previous years, its been common for A2 to increase several dollars after a trading halt is lifted during the pre open auction, so if guidance comes in within whats been proposed, it may already be too late for Shorters to close out positions. Obviously the same is true of A2 if guidance is missed, the share price has the potential to drop several dollars during the pre market open post a trading halt. From what I have seen and heard, I am leaning towards guidance being achieved, upper end.

[Gregnz]

12264
26.3 days to cover based on average trading volume.

[Gregnz]

Interesting to see the A2 short squeeze movement gaining traction on HotCopper and Reddit. Perhaps we just need Elon to try it and add it to his Twitter feed how much he loves A2 milk.
I see someone has already messaged him. What a world we live in today..

[daveypnz]

Have been drinking a lot of milk lately as I'm back in the gym for the first time in years, generally tolerate milk well but do get a bit bloated. Tried a2 for a laugh and have to say I don't feel anywhere near as bloated after drinking it. It also seems to have less of a scent than regular milk, almost no smell when you have a whiff of the bottle - that's possibly just the anchor bottle though as I vaguely remember reading someone saying their anchor milk tasted different when they switched to non transparent bottles.

Anyway will keep drinking and see how I feel, I may become a believer.

[longy]

12264
26.3 days to cover based on average trading volume.
Gregnz. Where did you obtained these info from please? Many thanks.

[dreamcatcher]

Interesting to see the A2 short squeeze movement gaining traction on HotCopper and Reddit. Perhaps we just need Elon to try it and add it to his Twitter feed how much he loves A2 milk.
I see someone has already messaged him. What a world we live in today..

Appears the HC brigade are now well and truly aware of Reddit effects to target heavily shorted stocks. Listening to a share commentator today who mentions some Hedge Funds with zero balances would not be a problem. Also outlining that most would short targeted stocks before lowering their TP finding every excuse to justify new valuations. Retail investors should care zero about shorters loses and put them on notice that their actions also had huge losses on others ...........sound famiiar for a2

GameStop shares shorted has declined by 8% in the last 7 days to 57.83 million, as some short sellers have covered their bets that the stock would fall. Looking at Shortman's chart for 22nd January A2m short sellers position stood at 7.88% or 58.5 million greater then GameStop.

[LEMON]

What do you think would be next for A2M?
Or hard to say?

[Gregnz]

I wasn’t too sure how to take today’s announcement from government about climate targets and reducing cow herd numbers. They seem to think that they can produce as much diary with 15% less cows by 2030.
Personally I’d prefer they start by fixing child poverty, housing, and crime , then tackle the bigger issues such as climate change. After all they are already in their 4th year and don’t appear to have achieved much when it comes to the fundamental issues in society.

I did speak to a friend of mine this evening who knows a number of dairy farmers. He seems to think that the announcement today could lead to a increase in farmers converting herds to A2A2 protein, as apparently they receive slightly more $$ per kg of milk solids, and if their herd numbers are reduced, they need to achieve higher $$ with less cows. I don’t know enough about it to know how this works.
I imagine if farmers have limits placed on herd sizes, if they can achieve a higher margin selling their milk to be used in nutritional products then this makes sense, or perhaps it will just lead to a increase in dairy costs across the board, passed onto the consumer. Apparently NZ is already able to produce dairy at a much cheaper cost vs other countries, so perhaps a increase in this cost is inevitable.

[dreamcatcher]

Gregnz@ - Imagine increased dairy prices would be the result or discovery of new feed to stop cows belching or flatulencing: I found these interesting facts "which is a bigger methane source: cow belching or cow flatulence? Contrary to common belief, it's cow belching due to enteric fermentation. A cow burps and farts between 160 to 320 litres of methane per day."

LEMON@ - Not sure where this Reddit army movement will take a2 shares but this borrowing of shares what absolute rubbish.

[Gregnz]

Gregnz@ - Imagine increased dairy prices would be the result or discovery of new feed to stop cows belching or flatulencing: I found these interesting facts "which is a bigger methane source: cow belching or cow flatulence? Contrary to common belief, it's cow belching due to enteric fermentation. A cow burps and farts between 160 to 320 litres of methane per day."

LEMON@ - Not sure where this Reddit army movement will take a2 shares but this borrowing of shares what absolute rubbish.

Yes, but isnt the fact that our cows are grass fed one of the reasons the world likes our dairy? I wonder if there is a way to engineer a grass variety which creates less methane after consumption.

I can just imagine it, as a result of a methane reduction target, we start planting and harvesting grain and convert our herds to grain fed (if it produces less methane). One step forward, two steps backwards.

I'm not against doing what we can do as a small nation to combat climate change, I'm all for it. I just wonder though what impact our small nation has in the grand scheme, when countries like China and the USA contribute such a large % towards emissions.
We already have a low wage economy, with rising cost of living, and housing out of reach for many, but because we want to make a small contribution to world climate emissions, our population will pay more for food, petrol, gas, and somehow afford to buy an electric car (because we don't have sufficient public transport to rely upon, and we wont be allowed to buy a petrol car). Dont even get me started on the battery side of things, as everything I read suggests that mining lithium for a battery, and end of life recycling and disposal is just as bad for the environment as petrol.
I hear in the USA you already receive a significant rebate for installing solar on your roof, and a rebate when you buy an electric car. I'm yet to see anything here along similar lines. I would have thought thats where we would have started?

[iceman]

Yes, but isnt the fact that our cows are grass fed one of the reasons the world likes our dairy? I wonder if there is a way to engineer a grass variety which creates less methane after consumption.

I can just imagine it, as a result of a methane reduction target, we start planting and harvesting grain and convert our herds to grain fed (if it produces less methane). One step forward, two steps backwards.



Lots of time & money being spent in the science industry on that. I am sure science & engineering will fix issues like this as well as most climate change issues in general in the future rather than silly do-gooders politicians that have no frigging idea..

[kiora]

Lots of time & money being spent in the science industry on that. I am sure science & engineering will fix issues like this as well as most climate change issues in general in the future rather than silly do-gooders politicians that have no frigging idea..

The solution is already there without cutting cow numbers
https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-solutions/2020/11/27/climate-solutions-seaweed-methane/?arc404=true

[mike2020]

The solution is already there without cutting cow numbers
https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-solutions/2020/11/27/climate-solutions-seaweed-methane/?arc404=true

Ex dairy farmer, 7 years ago I was quite excited by UK trials on a garlic product reducing methane with resulting increases in milk and liveweight over 25% in all ruminants (the methane is wasted energy). Like the mythical lawnmower running on water, went nowhere. Targets would easily be met if there was enough motivation to do more than talk. PS every time I lowered cow numbers I increased production and profitability.

[Sideshow Bob]

Prof Keith latest article, about Sir Bob Elliot and some of the background on A2 - Page 23

Farmers Weekly NZ February 1 2021 by Farmers Weekly NZ - Issuu (https://issuu.com/farmersweeklynz/docs/fw_01-02_issuu/1?ff&showOtherPublicationsAsSuggestions=true)

[Gregnz]

The solution is already there without cutting cow numbers
https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-solutions/2020/11/27/climate-solutions-seaweed-methane/?arc404=true

seaweed definitely seems like a potential solution to add into the mix. I just wonder what emissions are involved in harvesting it in bulk as feed for livestock.

[Gregnz]

Prof Keith latest article, about Sir Bob Elliot and some of the background on A2 - Page 23

Farmers Weekly NZ February 1 2021 by Farmers Weekly NZ - Issuu (https://issuu.com/farmersweeklynz/docs/fw_01-02_issuu/1?ff&showOtherPublicationsAsSuggestions=true)

Great article. I also took interest at the article on NZ dairy farmers leading the way in climate emissions on page 7.
Based on that article, we already have the lowest methane emissions in the world as a result of feeding livestock grass.
Yet our government wants to reduce our herd numbers? If we already produce dairy with the lowest environmental impact in the world, wouldn’t it make sense to increase our herd numbers and produce more dairy here vs countries with a much less efficient farming sector?

Smells a bit like another Tiwai point , close down production here where we produce the worlds cleanest aluminium, and produce more of it offshore where the environmental impact is more significant as a result of burning coal to supply electricity.
Also reminds me of the stance our government is taking towards natural gas. Stop extracting it here, and import it from overseas where they have to ship it here using a diesel powered ship, and to manufacture it offshore they burn coal!

[winner69]

Great article. I also took interest at the article on NZ dairy farmers leading the way in climate emissions on page 7.
Based on that article, we already have the lowest methane emissions in the world as a result of feeding livestock grass.
Yet our government wants to reduce our herd numbers? If we already produce dairy with the lowest environmental impact in the world, wouldn’t it make sense to increase our herd numbers and produce more dairy here vs countries with a much less efficient farming sector?

Smells a bit like another Tiwai point , close down production here where we produce the worlds cleanest aluminium, and produce more of it offshore where the environmental impact is more significant as a result of burning coal to supply electricity.
Also reminds me of the stance our government is taking towards natural gas. Stop extracting it here, and import it from overseas where they have to ship it here using a diesel powered ship, and to manufacture it offshore they burn coal!

You just don’t get it greg

Rod Carr (Chair of CCC) just compared Food producers in NZ with Whale hunters. When asked if he accepted that our farmers were the most carbon efficient in the world he said something like ‘Being the best whale hunters doesn’t make it good’

[Gregnz]

You just don’t get it greg

Rod Carr (Chair of CCC) just compared Food producers in NZ with Whale hunters. When asked if he accepted that our farmers were the most carbon efficient in the world he said something like ‘Being the best whale hunters doesn’t make it good’

Omg, he actually did! What a nutter.

12266

12267

[Ggcc]

Omg, he actually did! What a nutter.

12266

12267
Clearly he lives with his head in the clouds.

[Gregnz]

How does it end up that our politicians are so out of touch with reality, that their proposed climate initiatives actually have the opposite affect to what the world is trying to achieve.
Im no scientist, no politician, if normal everyday people like me are questioning these things, I’m very concerned at what our future holds.

[Sideshow Bob]

Goes to show how it is a box-ticking, virtuous looking, nationalistic agenda, rather than really trying to do what is best and has the lowest emissions. Making sure we meet our obligations to climate accords, no matter how little difference it will make, or what economic damage it will do.

On a farming/A2 perspective, part of the issue is the emissions falls back on the producer. But with oil, it falls on the consumer.......don't see the Saudi's trying to plant pine tress.

[Biscuit]

How does it end up that our politicians are so out of touch with reality, that their proposed climate initiatives actually have the opposite affect to what the world is trying to achieve.
Im no scientist, no politician, if normal everyday people like me are questioning these things, I’m very concerned at what our future holds.

As a scientist, I can assure you the answer is simple: reduce the human population to one hundredth of its current size. That is likely the only answer, but it is at that point that the politicians get involved and start complicating things again.

[kiora]

Maybe its better to walk?
The amount of emissions' to produce a 1 kg eye fillet in Denmark is the same emission's as driving from Denmark to Paris

[macduffy]

Are we entitled to ask what Rod Carr's qualifications are to chair the climate change commission? Previously a Reserve Bank economist - on the one hand this, but on the other .... - and last heard of, the Vice Chancellor of Canterbury University. Eminently suitable for the climate change role?

[freddagg]

Maybe its better to walk?
The amount of emissions' to produce a 1 kg eye fillet in Denmark is the same emission's as driving from Denmark to Paris

Fake news ?

[kiora]

Fake news ?

No sadly for real

[bull....]

outta the short , why bubs result not too bad as far as sales go and the gme thing makes holding shorts risky now. great trade anyway $20 to just under $11

[Biscuit]

Maybe its better to walk?
The amount of emissions' to produce a 1 kg eye fillet in Denmark is the same emission's as driving from Denmark to Paris

Does it take more emissions to grow a kg of eye fillet than to grow a kg of rump steak?

[dreamcatcher]

outta the short , why bubs result not too bad as far as sales go and the gme thing makes holding shorts risky now. great trade anyway $20 to just under $11

Well done bull....... I like and have a sizable holding in Bubs also

[kiora]

Does it take more emissions to grow a kg of eye fillet than to grow a kg of rump steak?

No
why would it?
They are both only muscle

[madmat]

You get more rump per KG of Cow than you do Eye Fillet. So I would say its less emissions for Rump and more for eye fillet?

[winner69]

New man steps in next week ...things will start looking up

Hope Babidge doesn’t hang around too long .....been bad with him as caretaker .....and I hope he doesn’t get any incentive payments (contract said he could possibly earn $0.6m annually in incentives. Talk about Hrdlicka being in the trough ...Babidge maybe one as well.

[Balance]

New man steps in next week ...things will start looking up

Hope Babidge doesn’t hang around too long .....been bad with him as caretaker .....and I hope he doesn’t get any incentive payments (contract said he could possibly earn $0.6m annually in incentives. Talk about Hrdlicka being in the trough ...Babidge maybe one as well.

First thing he will do is open up the cupboards and find all the skeletons pertaining to the double downgrades.

As for Hrdlicka, remember there was a disagreement over strategy - she wanted to accelerate marketing & promotional spend (short term pain) to offset the over-reliance on the Daigou channel?

[winner69]

First thing he will do is open up the cupboards and find all the skeletons pertaining to the double downgrades.

As for Hrdlicka, remember there was a disagreement over strategy - she wanted to accelerate marketing & promotional spend (short term pain) to offset the over-reliance on the Daigou channel?

That would have been a good strategy - mountain of cash done nothing anyway

But they now seem to be heading in another direction and becoming more of a producer .... probably end up being another bloated Fonterra

[Biscuit]

You get more rump per KG of Cow than you do Eye Fillet. So I would say its less emissions for Rump and more for eye fillet?

Well madmat and kiora, apparently you are both wrong:

".... Some studies provide the carbon
footprint of beef in terms of the finished carcass, whereas others provide data for
individual cuts of beef. The carbon footprint of a whole beef carcass is generally
apportioned to cuts of meat based on an economic allocation; whereby the more
valuable cuts (e.g. sirloin) receive the largest allocation per kg than less valuable cuts
(e.g. mince)."

So, does eating eye fillet produce more emissions than driving from Denmark to Paris? The devil is in the detail and it is probably a meaningless comparison.

[porkandpuha]

Sheesh this thread is often guilty of going off track, but we have gone to the next level now :lol:

[LEMON]

Sheesh this thread is often guilty of going off track, but we have gone to the next level now :lol:

Yup.......

[arekaywhy]

How does it end up that our politicians are so out of touch with reality, that their proposed climate initiatives actually have the opposite affect to what the world is trying to achieve.
Im no scientist, no politician, if normal everyday people like me are questioning these things, I’m very concerned at what our future holds.


because we keep voting for them...

[Biscuit]

Sheesh this thread is often guilty of going off track, but we have gone to the next level now :lol:


There's a track? :ohmy:

[bull....]

its getting hammered today , must be the all that chat on emissions from steak causing people to worry over how many cows NZ will end up with once ardern and shaw BBQ a few

[causecelebre]

its getting hammered today , must be the all that chat on emissions from steak causing people to worry over how many cows NZ will end up with once ardern and shaw BBQ a few

I'd say not that many. Setting up a coal BBQ takes time....

[Balance]

I'd say not that many. Setting up a coal BBQ takes time....

3 years in government and they have delivered bugger all on their big promises - don't hold your breath. A lot of talk but no action.

Miss Popularity at all costs Cindy will talk big but back down last minute.

[Gregnz]

I'd say not that many. Setting up a coal BBQ takes time....

Yep, you got it. Coal powered BBQ's instead of natural gas. And instead of exploring for methanol off our coastline, we will ask China to manufacture it for us by burning coal and sending the methanol to us using a Diesel powered ship.

And nail in the coffin, we will close down Tiwai point, after all we don't want them making the worlds cleanest aluminium here using renewable hydro power, we would prefer other countries burn coal to power their aluminium smelters.

[Gregnz]

3 years in government and they have delivered bugger all on their big promises - don't hold your breath. A lot of talk but no action.

Miss Popularity at all costs Cindy will talk big but back down last minute.

If it wasn't for their Covid response, what have they actually delivered, nothing!

Every which way I look, most things are worse, housing affordability, crime, gangs, child poverty, state house waiting list, etc etc.

[Balance]

If it wasn't for their Covid response, what have they actually delivered, nothing!

Every which way I look, most things are worse, housing affordability, crime, gangs, child poverty, state house waiting list, etc etc.

Going to get worse - for eg. I was at a meeting last week to discuss affordable housing and the best that Kainga Ora (Housing Corp) could offer was heaps of excuses!

[bull....]

plenty of drugs to give your cows soon to reduce there emmissions .... wonder if they will list the side effects? might upset the a2 proteins

[porkandpuha]

If it wasn't for their Covid response, what have they actually delivered, nothing!

Every which way I look, most things are worse, housing affordability, crime, gangs, child poverty, state house waiting list, etc etc.

You missed out Education which has been in the news the past week due to our poor standards. This combined list used to be the measure on which we judged our politicians. Now Joe Public seem to turn a blind eye to it all..

[dobby41]

If it wasn't for their Covid response, what have they actually delivered, nothing!

Every which way I look, most things are worse, housing affordability, crime, gangs, child poverty, state house waiting list, etc etc.


Going to get worse - for eg. I was at a meeting last week to discuss affordable housing and the best that Kainga Ora (Housing Corp) could offer was heaps of excuses!

And this has what to do with ATM?
Maybe move your conversation to a more appropriate thread.

[Biscuit]

3 years in government and they have delivered bugger all on their big promises - don't hold your breath. A lot of talk but no action.

Miss Popularity at all costs Cindy will talk big but back down last minute.


Chip in to get things moving faster

https://www.labour.org.nz/our-record

[Balance]

And this has what to do with ATM?
Maybe move your conversation to a more appropriate thread.

Relevance :

Started with concern that government's pronouncements on climate change are going to impact on dairy sector and ATM in particular (as pertinent to this thread).

Followed up with no need for concerns as this government is all talk and no action.

Reaffirmed with its dismal record on delivering bugger all on housing, education, child poverty, climate change etc etc etc.

Get the point?

[LEMON]

This forum is weak.

As a new investor A2M forum has done nothing but tired my mind, rather than help me learn and improve in the market over the past months.
All I hear is moaning and whinging over your fragile egos. The pointless discussion that comes to nothing. The tit for tat mentality, to the point I now have lower my bar to say something.

It truly feels like an old man's page to moan and complain about how lucky you all are to be in a place like New Zealand.
In saying that, I only mean the select few who continually need to have their voices heard, even when no one is asking.

Thankfully many others here are very helpful and informative and I have learnt much on other forum chats.

Jacinda or no Jacinda you all live very good lives here in New Zealand whether you have a 1 bedroom or a 5. A pushbike or 2 cars.

[dobby41]

Relevance :

Started with concern that government's pronouncements on climate change are going to impact on dairy sector and ATM in particular (as pertinent to this thread).

Followed up with no need for concerns as this government is all talk and no action.

Reaffirmed with its dismal record on delivering bugger all on housing, education, child poverty, climate change etc etc etc.

Get the point?

It may have been relevant at some stage but your rants about the Govt have no relevance to this thread now.

[Gregnz]

I posted here , initially about dairy farming and climate change, because I genuinely think it could have a impact on A2. And the ideas presented by others have quelled some of my concern.

I apologise for going off track with my thoughts on our current government, I guess I thought it was all related to my climate change discussion.

I note you mention old man's page, I'm really showing my age in my 30's.

[Gregnz]

If anyone has anything else worth discussing relevant to A2, please feel free to contribute? Even new members wanting to gain knowledge are allowed to post...

[dreamcatcher]

Here we go very positive for cows and bulls herd may not need to be reduced.

"A new partnership between Fonterra and Dutch company Royal DSM will trial the use of a feed additive, which inhibits methane in dairy cows.
Royal DSM’s product Bovaer has been shown to consistently reduce methane emissions by up to 30 per cent in non-pasture raised cows"

Fonterra partners with science giant DSM to reduce methane emissions in cows | Stuff.co.nz (https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/farming/124093975/fonterra-partners-with-science-giant-dsm-to-reduce-methane-emissions-in-cows)

[Balance]

deleted deleted

[Leftfield]

It may have been relevant at some stage but your rants about the Govt have no relevance to this thread now.

Totally agree.

[Jack]

This forum is weak.

As a new investor A2M forum has done nothing but tired my mind, rather than help me learn and improve in the market over the past months.
All I hear is moaning and whinging over your fragile egos. The pointless discussion that comes to nothing. The tit for tat mentality, to the point I now have lower my bar to say something.

It truly feels like an old man's page to moan and complain about how lucky you all are to be in a place like New Zealand.
In saying that, I only mean the select few who continually need to have their voices heard, even when no one is asking.

Thankfully many others here are very helpful and informative and I have learnt much on other forum chats.

Jacinda or no Jacinda you all live very good lives here in New Zealand whether you have a 1 bedroom or a 5. A pushbike or 2 cars.
:t_up:
:t_up:

[King1212]

Lol...love the comments here. It shows that most of the shareholders are frustrated and most of u guys are under the water. IMO, there is still a lot of water to go through the bridge.

Buffet said.....Only when the tide goes out do you discover who's been swimming naked.

[Entrep]

This forum is weak.

As a new investor A2M forum has done nothing but tired my mind, rather than help me learn and improve in the market over the past months.
All I hear is moaning and whinging over your fragile egos. The pointless discussion that comes to nothing. The tit for tat mentality, to the point I now have lower my bar to say something.

It truly feels like an old man's page to moan and complain about how lucky you all are to be in a place like New Zealand.
In saying that, I only mean the select few who continually need to have their voices heard, even when no one is asking.

Thankfully many others here are very helpful and informative and I have learnt much on other forum chats.

Jacinda or no Jacinda you all live very good lives here in New Zealand whether you have a 1 bedroom or a 5. A pushbike or 2 cars.

What does anyone here owe you? This forum is noisy, the internet is noisy. You need to learn to filter it.

[Gregnz]

Lol...love the comments here. It shows that most of the shareholders are frustrated and most of u guys are under the water. IMO, there is still a lot of water to go through the bridge.

Buffet said.....Only when the tide goes out do you discover who's been swimming naked.

(Still in the green here, albeit my 100%+ returns are now only in the high 90’s).

12278

[Gregnz]

What does anyone here owe you? This forum is noisy, the internet is noisy. You need to learn to filter it.

Agree with you. I love it when people come here and complain about what’s being discussed, without actually contributing anything. Hence my earlier comment saying people who are learning are also allowed to post...

[LEMON]

Agree with you. I love it when people come here and complain about what’s being discussed, without actually contributing anything. Hence my earlier comment saying people who are learning are also allowed to post...

Define contributing?
You just blab away to sound smart, most of you do but it's all dribble.

The people with the most to contribute are the ones with the least to say, and only speak when it matters!
They show up at the table with something to give not just picking at the leftovers that have already been eaten!!

Anyway, no more from me, many will disagree and I do apologise to all but this is forum is like bleeding a rock sometimes!

[Gregnz]

Define contributing?
You just blab away to sound smart, most of you do but it's all dribble.

The people with the most to contribute are the ones with the least to say, and only speak when it matters!
They show up at the table with something to give not just picking at the leftovers that have already been eaten!!

Through all your political correctness.
He's right, you're wrong.
Regurgitated facts.
Policing the forum.
Finger-pointing what have you offered exactly?
A few remarks from hot copper.
Some speculations?

I may not be as advanced as most here in the market but I try to find my own sources and shares as much as I can with the forum, on new information or videos without dribbling down my chin.

As the previous poster asked, what does the forum owe you?

It’s very easy to criticise those who regularly contribute, but calling people out when their political views aren’t the same as yours is going a bit too far.

And what have I offered? I genuinely wanted input as to how recent changes to climate standards would affect A2, seeing as it has a direct impact on farming, but you obviously missed that point.

[porkandpuha]

Define contributing?
You just blab away to sound smart, most of you do but it's all dribble.

The people with the most to contribute are the ones with the least to say, and only speak when it matters!
They show up at the table with something to give not just picking at the leftovers that have already been eaten!!

Anyway, no more from me, many will disagree and I do apologise to all but this is forum is like bleeding a rock sometimes!

You ok there?

I think Feb 25th will put an end to a lot of the speculation when we finally have some hard data to trawl through. In the absence of proper news releases and updates from A2 themselves, holders have gone out in search of any headline, however relevant, in an effort to generate discussion. It is what it is.

edit: I finally went and signed up to HC on the back of some info Greg had brought back to ST from HC. It aint that much better over there either.

[Gregnz]

You ok there?

I think Feb 25th will put an end to a lot of the speculation when we finally have some hard data to trawl through. In the absence of proper news releases and updates from A2 themselves, holders have gone out in search of any headline, however relevant, in an effort to generate discussion. It is what it is.

edit: I finally went and signed up to HC on the back of some info Greg had brought back to ST from HC. It aint that much better over there either.

Honestly, it’s far worse on HC, but there are some real gems once you sift thru all of the noise.
Things like store counts, China sales, corporate Daigou container stats etc.

I’m not one to only speak when I think something matters, because I don’t want to make an assumption as to what matters and what doesn’t.

Maybe I shouldn’t haven’t asked about emissions standards and farming, but seeing as it’s basically the sector A2 operate in, I thought it to be rather pertinent.

[King1212]

Lol...ATM is a trading stock...not to a love stock

[LEMON]

What does anyone here owe you? This forum is noisy, the internet is noisy. You need to learn to filter it.

Yes, you're right im not owe anything, it was a selfish point in my attempt to get across that some people prefer the sound of their voices so much that they'll purposely talk nonsense to seem like they are important!

It's not about ATM share price or business at times.

It's about measuring the size if their ....'s next to one another.

[Balance]

Can sense some real hurt out there with ATM holders who bought too high.

Trying to seek affirmation and quick answer on this forum as to what to do.

Answer has always been here - you just have to pick who & what to read & listen to!

[Gregnz]

Can sense some real hurt out there with ATM holders who bought too high.

Trying to seek affirmation and quick answer on this forum as to what to do.

Answer has always been here - you just have to pick who & what to read & listen to!

I'm still a believer for the long term, I bought a chunk at $15 which in hindsight I shouldn't have. Oh well. Cant always pick winners.

I get the feeling my post about methane emissions struck a certain cord with some, hence they deemed it to be nonsense.

Even though I'm holding a sizeable A2 investment, I still want to see the good, the bad and the ugly.

[King1212]

Ouch....$15....

[ratkin]

Deleted.....

[winner69]

Ouch....$15....

He’s still 99.39% up with current holding $144,116.19 (no link just his screenshot)

[TLM54]

I also bought at $15. The technicals looked good at the time. substantial support, downward price action with upward MACD, break above downward trendline. It was poised to break out on the day of AGM, and it did for a bit. The flush down was completely unexpected from a technical standpoint and from a fundamental standpoint we were just a little out from closing out 1H2021, yet they claimed they were well on track to meet their previous guidance.

Considering all that, I don't think $15 was a bad pick.

For a lot of us, holding after that breakdown was the mistake because clearly, in hindsight, something wasn't right.

I sold off after the dead cats bounce and moved on to scrap back the losses elsewhere. It is what it is.

Company still has an impressive bank balance and plenty of runway for growth. I also like the product and the brand but like many others now, I have concerns about the insiders and the board.

[Mrbuyit]

There was an interesting point a few pages back with regards to mataura valley milk, and the govt expectations of phasing out coal as an energy source in the coming years.
When drying milk concentrate energy costs (electricity and coal /gas etc) are normally the largest costs after the purchase of the raw product, and staff costs. Depending on how much 'fat' is in your business..

A coal to biomass fuel conversion, not only has a one off cost associated with changes required for the burner arrangement and dust management, but currently is significantly more expensive to operate.. A coal boiler might cost ~4m /year you would be up to 11-12m /year for no actual reduction in CO exiting the boiler stack...

This is probably more of an issue for fonterra with a reliance on coal fired boilers dotted around the countryside, but also a of consideration is do we actually have capacity to make enough wood pellets / chips in consistent supply in the right parts of the country (200t /day per boiler) once demand starts to shoot up?

[James108]

I also bought at $15ish but am still up slightly from earlier buys. At the end of the day ATM is extremely cheap at the moment (would usually abbreviate that to 'atm' but..) if it continues growing and gaining share in China/Aus daigou. If it doesn't, then it is a bit expensive.

I haven't heard anything that convinces me one way or the other so far, so I am sitting on hands for now.

A few members being a bit snarky, like they know better or like they have never bought a share that has gone down?

[kiora]

A more balanced view of CCC ?
https://www.interest.co.nz/rural-news/108850/despite-shrill-glee-greenpeace-guy-trafford-shows-livestock-numbers-are-falling?utm_source=ST&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=ShareTrader+AM+Update+for+Wednesday+3 +February+2021

[Balance]

I also bought at $15ish but am still up slightly from earlier buys. At the end of the day ATM is extremely cheap at the moment (would usually abbreviate that to 'atm' but..) if it continues growing and gaining share in China/Aus daigou. If it doesn't, then it is a bit expensive.

I haven't heard anything that convinces me one way or the other so far, so I am sitting on hands for now.

A few members being a bit snarky, like they know better or like they have never bought a share that has gone down?

We all do but we do not come to this forum bitching and moaning about postings which do not affirm our investment decisions.

We debate and discuss the postings - and make our own minds as what to do next.

[Gregnz]

Ouch....$15....

I have no doubt, given time, this will easily surpass $15. At which point my overall portfolio returns will be nearer to $200k in the green.
All very well sitting on the sidelines criticising others and suggesting we are all underwater, but as Im sure you know with investing, sometimes you pick winners and sometimes you
dont. It doesn’t mean they don’t eventually become winners with time. My hands aren’t weak enough to sell out when I still believe in my initial reasons for investing.

If only those people who are piling their funds into GME and AMC could understand how to do a fundamental analysis of a business.

[bull....]

I have no doubt, given time, this will easily surpass $15.

If only those people who are piling their funds into GME and AMC could understand how to do a fundamental analysis of a business.

but the market has decided its not worth $15

[Balance]

but the market has decided its not worth $15

And certainly not worth $20 when the buyers did their fundamental analysis & bought off management who sold in big lumps to them?

[bull....]

And certainly not worth $20 when the buyers did their fundamental analysis & bought off management who sold?

management are good fundamental analysts

[Gregnz]

but the market has decided its not worth $15

Read my post again, I said given time. Of course the market has decided it isn’t otherwise it would be trading at $15.
This is a easy long term investment for me.

[bull....]

Read my post again, I said given time. Of course the market has decided it isn’t otherwise it would be trading at $15.
This is a easy long term investment for me.

in the investment world ... time is money.

[Gregnz]

in the investment world ... time is money.

Im not a trader. I’ve made more than a few years salary after tax simply by buying the initial Covid dip. The last time I bought anything was A2 @ $15.04. Time really means nothing to me when I’m in my 30’s and have over 30 years of working life ahead of me. Assuming I retire at 65.

[James108]

If the market is always right why are you on this forum? Something to think about...

[bull....]

Im not a trader. I’ve made more than a few years salary after tax simply by buying the initial Covid dip. The last time I bought anything was A2 @ $15.04. Time really means nothing to me when I’m in my 30’s and have over 30 years of working life ahead of me. Assuming I retire at 65.

if a2 stays around current pricing for years and doesnt pay a dividend and another person earns a dividend say on another stock which does nothing.

who is ahead ? time is money thats why i guess you have a diversified portfolio to cover your a2 risk of earning no income

[bull....]

If the market is always right why are you on this forum? Something to think about...

if your talking to me , im only on this forum to fill in time while i watch the screen , no other reason

[King1212]

The fellow is in love with the stock bull...no need to lecture the poster....

[Gregnz]

If the market is always right why are you on this forum? Something to think about...

Some here think that you can only pick winners. I’m just honest enough to admit I can’t.

[Gregnz]

if a2 stays around current pricing for years and doesnt pay a dividend and another person earns a dividend say on another stock which does nothing.

who is ahead ? time is money thats why i guess you have a diversified portfolio to cover your a2 risk of earning no income

Yes you’ve answered your question, diversified.

My initial analysis and subsequent more recent analysis still confirms my initial reason for investing. I don’t think I will be waiting years to be in the green on A2 and potentially even sooner for a dividend to commence. If it takes longer than I planned, oh well, I’ll wait.

[James108]

Responding to bull: Well that makes sense given your posts, but follow up question is if the market is never wrong why do you buy individual shares? Surely that would be wasting your time.

[James108]

Responding to king: I’m not and it actually makes up less of my portfolio than the weighting on the nzx50, and as I measure my performance against the nzx50, I actually do better when ATM goes down.. go figure.

What there is no reason to do is provide opinions without reasoning.

[Gregnz]

There was an interesting point a few pages back with regards to mataura valley milk, and the govt expectations of phasing out coal as an energy source in the coming years.
When drying milk concentrate energy costs (electricity and coal /gas etc) are normally the largest costs after the purchase of the raw product, and staff costs. Depending on how much 'fat' is in your business..

A coal to biomass fuel conversion, not only has a one off cost associated with changes required for the burner arrangement and dust management, but currently is significantly more expensive to operate.. A coal boiler might cost ~4m /year you would be up to 11-12m /year for no actual reduction in CO exiting the boiler stack...

This is probably more of an issue for fonterra with a reliance on coal fired boilers dotted around the countryside, but also a of consideration is do we actually have capacity to make enough wood pellets / chips in consistent supply in the right parts of the country (200t /day per boiler) once demand starts to shoot up?

I've seen quite a bit of discussion around why A2 invested in Mataura. Being in southland, its best positioned to capitalise on any surplus electricity from Manapouri (if and when Tiwai closes). Transpower have already stated that it isn't efficient to simply send that power north (heat in conductors creates energy loss). They are already investing hundreds of millions to expand line capacity, but I imagine they will look to other southland businesses to absorb surplus.

This article about Mataura says that while it was more cost effective to use coal initially, the plant had the capability to transfer to a more environmentally friendly alternative when commercially viable: https://www.theensign.co.nz/community/plant-to-use-up-to-1m-of-water-a-day/

I'd think given the governments emissions targets, converting coal boilers to other energy sources is pretty low hanging fruit, and I imagine its definitely on their radar (or should be).

Also: https://www.newsroom.co.nz/why-electricity-will-replace-coal-in-dairy-plants

[Gregnz]

& apologies in advance for my lengthy posts. (I'm on annual leave for the week) Sorry.

[Balance]

& apologies in advance for my lengthy posts. (I'm on annual leave for the week) Sorry.

No need for apologies.

Information is key to making good investment decisions and posters can discern good from bad, useful from useless information.

[TLM54]

Everyone has their own convictions and strategy. we dont need to justify our strategy to anyone but ourselves.

The current chart structure is still bearish. the price action yesterday confirmed the triangle or wedge trading pattern, which indicates a probability of a bearish continuation. if the supporting trend line breaks, we could see a price target as low as $9.10 in the next trading range.

[porkandpuha]

Everyone has their own convictions and strategy. we dont need to justify our strategy to anyone but ourselves.

The current chart structure is still bearish. the price action yesterday confirmed the triangle or wedge trading pattern, which indicates a probability of a bearish continuation. if the supporting trend line breaks, we could see a price target as low as $9.10 in the next trading range.

Does TA account for much right now? Fairly certain most investors and traders are waiting for a bit of guidance from the report later this month which will provide the strongest indicator of the future.

[Gregnz]

Does TA account for much right now? Fairly certain most investors and traders are waiting for a bit of guidance from the report later this month which will provide the strongest indicator of the future.

The price action is definitely interesting. I’m not a chartist, wouldn’t have a clue how to interpret one, but was very telling on the ASX when it was within touching distance of $11 AUD, only to be knocked back on decent volume (while at the same time short positions appear to be closing).

I do find it interesting that a share price will fall 50+ cents with no new updates/guidance from the company. Suggests to me that those with short positions are doing their best to subdue the share price.

[Balance]

The price action is definitely interesting. I’m not a chartist, wouldn’t have a clue how to interpret one, but was very telling on the ASX when it was within touching distance of $11 AUD, only to be knocked back on decent volume (while at the same time short positions appear to be closing).

I do find it interesting that a share price will fall 50+ cents with no new updates/guidance from the company. Suggests to me that those with short positions are doing their best to subdue the share price.

Actually, they have been buying back shares.

[Gregnz]

Actually, they have been buying back shares.

I see. So buying them pushed the share price higher initially. I guess now another opportunity for them to start buying again. Only another 57,579,000 (approx) to buy back.
That could be interpreted as shorters perhaps leaning towards a positive update end of Feb, and don’t want to be caught short?

[Balance]

I see. So buying them pushed the share price higher initially. I guess now another opportunity for them to start buying again. Only another 57,579,000 (approx) to buy back.
That could be interpreted as shorters perhaps leaning towards a positive update end of Feb, and don’t want to be caught short?

Taking some $$$ off the table and in the process, supporting the share price.

I am still picking a downgrade when the new CEO presents the H1 results - clear the decks & skeletons from the cupboards.

[Gregnz]

Taking some $$$ off the table and in the process, supporting the share price.

I am still picking a downgrade when the new CEO presents the H1 results - clear the decks & skeletons from the cupboards.

I guess I would have thought that they would be doubling down and increasing their short position sizes if they were confident of another downgrade.
I’m not confident either way, I suspect they feel the same. I was pleasantly surprised when I read the Bub’s quarterly update to see such a remarkable recovery in Daigou.

[dreamcatcher]

Probably just @bull closing but last few days shorts decreased by approx 1m (sorry plus the 4 days)

Think a2 would have notified market (by now) if forecast not met.

[alokdhir]

Probably just @bull closing but last few days shorts decreased by approx 1m (sorry plus the 4 days)

Think a2 would have notified market (by now) if forecast not met.

Which forecast u talking here buddy ? HY 670 mil figure or FY 1400 mil one ..

HY 670 is almost a certainty as was given 2 weeks before HY ended ...FY forecast changes too far ahead given their past experience of down grading 2 weeks before year ending date

So nothing much can change in HY numbers ...Full year guidance can change up or down and they have time to do that at HY announcement so no requirement to bring any price sensitive information before meeting

[sb9]

I am still picking a downgrade when the new CEO presents the H1 results - clear the decks & skeletons from the cupboards.

I pretty much doubt that, as they've revised guidance just before Christmas and re FY numbers, there're still bit of time to get a handle on things.

[Gregnz]

Which forecast u talking here buddy ? HY 670 mil figure or FY 1400 mil one ..

HY 670 is almost a certainty as was given 2 weeks before HY ended ...FY forecast changes too far ahead given their past experience of down grading 2 weeks before year ending date

So nothing much can change in HY numbers ...Full year guidance can change up or down and they have time to do that at HY announcement so no requirement to bring any price sensitive information before meeting

He’s talking HY, which we know will be met. Unless the sh*t hits the fan with Covid between now and full year, given the updates from other companies about corporate Daigou recovering and strong sales in China, I’d lean towards FY guidance being met also. I don’t feel their FY guidance was overly optimistic, so things would have really go downhill to miss that target.

[alokdhir]

He’s talking HY, which we know will be met. Unless the sh*t hits the fan with Covid between now and full year, given the updates from other companies about corporate Daigou recovering and strong sales in China, I’d lean towards FY guidance being met also. I don’t feel their FY guidance was overly optimistic, so things would have really go downhill to miss that target.

Point I was trying to make that for FY guidance report to come there is lots of time ...as he was expecting an announcement about FY forecast now !!!!

He should be expecting that in the month of May IMHO

[Gregnz]

Point I was trying to make that for FY guidance report to come there is lots of time ...as he was expecting an announcement about FY forecast now !!!!

He should be expecting that in the month of May IMHO

Usually towards end of August for FY.

[Balance]

Point I was trying to make that for FY guidance report to come there is lots of time ...as he was expecting an announcement about FY forecast now !!!!

He should be expecting that in the month of May IMHO

New CEO is going to want to start his tenure with a clean slate.

Nothing worse than what happened to Ross Taylor at FBU - took over and did not account for all the skeletons in the cupboards.

[alokdhir]

Usually towards end of August for FY.


I was talking about a trading update information announcement ....as thats what he was looking for

" Think a2 would have notified market (by now) if forecast not met. "

[winner69]

New CEO is going to want to start his tenure with a clean slate.

Nothing worse than what happened to Ross Taylor at FBU - took over and did not account for all the skeletons in the cupboards.

The new man made sure Pacific Brands got rid of skeletons etc and went through a few more previous downgrades ....and then hey presto it surprised the market with a big profit upgrade and he was a hero .....and then Pacific Brands got taken over

[TLM54]

He’s talking HY, which we know will be met. Unless the sh*t hits the fan with Covid between now and full year, given the updates from other companies about corporate Daigou recovering and strong sales in China, I’d lean towards FY guidance being met also. I don’t feel their FY guidance was overly optimistic, so things would have really go downhill to miss that target.

I don't think i've seen any news about ANZ daigous improving. I would expect daigous to deteriorate further in 2H21 due to students graduating in late 2020 and leaving and temporary visitor's visas expiring and going home. since there's no inflow of new students and visitors replacing those who left towards the end of 2020, it's hard to see daigou sales improving over 1H21 unless AUS gets a decent inflow of people from China.

[Gregnz]

I don't think i've seen any news about ANZ daigous improving. I would expect daigous to deteriorate further in 2H21 due to students graduating in late 2020 and leaving and temporary visitor's visas expiring and going home. since there's no inflow of new students and visitors replacing those who left towards the end of 2020, it's hard to see daigou sales improving over 1H21 unless AUS gets a decent inflow of people from China.

Id suggest reading Bubs recent quarterly update, Corporate Daigou up 122%.

Id also add, 150,000 Daigou live in Australia, they aren’t temporary students or visitors.

12281

[Mrbuyit]

Correct me if I'm wrong but bubs would be on a tiny scale when compared to ATM, so a 100% increase is probably pocket change?

Disc: hold ATM as my second largest holding behind OCA having accumulated enough recently for the time being.

[Gregnz]

Correct me if I'm wrong but bubs would be on a tiny scale when compared to ATM, so a 100% increase is probably pocket change?

Disc: hold ATM as my second largest holding behind OCA having accumulated enough recently for the time being.

Yes they are tiny. But the corporate Daigou dynamics would be similar. It could be argued that Corporate Daigou for A2 is better equipped to capitalise on any recovery in that channel.

[Leftfield]

The new man made sure Pacific Brands got rid of skeletons etc and went through a few more previous downgrades ....and then hey presto it surprised the market with a big profit upgrade and he was a hero .....and then Pacific Brands got taken over

So we should hold pending $30 ps plus takeover offer. Bring it on. :t_up:

[Balance]

Id suggest reading Bubs recent quarterly update, Corporate Daigou up 122%.

Id also add, 150,000 Daigou live in Australia, they aren’t temporary students or visitors.



I personally would not read too much into the 122% increase - this is 2Q vs 1Q.

1Q was July - Sept which was the worst of the Victorian 111 days lockdown when daigou sales would have virtually fallen off the cliff.

So 2Q increase on 1Q of 122% does not equate much imo. More relevant if BUB advised Q2 F2021 vs Q2 F2020 sales decrease/increase.

Also, ATM's second profit downgrade was announced well into December (18 Dec) - which indicates that ATM has not seen the same sort of recovery as BUB in 2Q.

Probably why ATM's sp was sold off after the initial sp rise from the BUB's announcement after analysts have had a good look at BUB's results.

[dreamcatcher]

Think the skeletons are already out but my opinion a2 to exceed 670m but a hold either way for me.

All free-held so certainly an easy decision but increased my holdings in bubs with positive corporate daigou UBS a2 TP NZ$17 - Analysis points to range $10.00-$23.50 with downside including no China recovery

[porkandpuha]

2 million shares covered by shorters from Jan 27th to Jan 28th. Right in the heart of the Gamestop squeeze.

[dreamcatcher]

2 million shares covered by shorters from Jan 27th to Jan 28th. Right in the heart of the Gamestop squeeze.
Thanks for that only 50m more to go !!

Sen Warren says Wall St hedge funds been manipulating the market for years and years and years couldn't agree more. These weekly games on the ASX of course all perfectly legal now getting heaps of attention. Hedge Funds now crying help us its not fair we are losing money, welcome to the games in reverse pal. Understand people been talking about a2 on Reddit. If we see a surge of buying we know why could one dream $100 ................wake up boy?

https://edition.cnn.com/videos/politics/2021/01/31/elizabeth-warren-reddit-game-stop-wall-street-sec-sot-sotu-bash-vpx.cnn/video/playlists/this-week-in-politics/

[alokdhir]

Think the skeletons are already out but my opinion a2 to exceed 670m but a hold either way for me.

All free-held so certainly an easy decision but increased my holdings in bubs with positive corporate daigou UBS a2 TP NZ$17 - Analysis points to range $10.00-$23.50 with downside including no China recovery

U expecting more then 670 m ? If that happens then I will loose all faith in ATM management and its MIS ...:D

[bull....]

A2 director’s husband on opposite side of Mataura deal




Bortolussi starts next week and will receive $3.7 million worth of shares that will vest within two years of his appointment

https://www.afr.com/rear-window/a2-director-s-husband-on-opposite-side-of-mataura-deal-20210203-p56z6n

[Balance]

Thanks for that only 50m more to go !!

Sen Warren says Wall St hedge funds been manipulating the market for years and years and years couldn't agree more. These weekly games on the ASX of course all perfectly legal now getting heaps of attention. Hedge Funds now crying help us its not fair we are losing money, welcome to the games in reverse pal. Understand people been talking about a2 on Reddit. If we see a surge of buying we know why could one dream $100 ................wake up boy?

https://edition.cnn.com/videos/politics/2021/01/31/elizabeth-warren-reddit-game-stop-wall-street-sec-sot-sotu-bash-vpx.cnn/video/playlists/this-week-in-politics/

Points to note :

1. Reddit crowd getting their backside burnt with GameStop shares now in free fall. They were superbly manipulated by a few big hitters who made super profits from the short coverings.

2. There is a world of difference between naked shorts (as in GameStop) vs covered shorts (as in ASX stocks). Naked shorts are NOT allowed on ASX stocks.

Know the difference and you will understand why GameStop happened.

[Balance]

A2 director’s husband on opposite side of Mataura deal




Bortolussi starts next week and will receive $3.7 million worth of shares that will vest within two years of his appointment

https://www.afr.com/rear-window/a2-director-s-husband-on-opposite-side-of-mataura-deal-20210203-p56z6n







As long as it’s all fully disclosed and there is no conflict of interest, good on him.

[sb9]

As long as it’s all fully disclosed and there is no conflict of interest, good on him.

His wife and A2 Director Pip Greenwood was kept of negotiations relating Mataura deal due to conflict of interest, nothing to see here, move on...

[dobby41]

Points to note :

1. Reddit crowd getting their backside burnt with GameStop shares now in free fall. They were superbly manipulated by a few big hitters who made super profits from the short coverings.

Something I don't understand is how the Reddit crowd was ever not going to be burnt - the price was never going to stay up that high.
Maybe it was to be a case of lots of the little people losing a little each but taking the big guys for a lot. At some stage the shorts were going to win as the price was just unreasonably high.

[Balance]

Something I don't understand is how the Reddit crowd was ever not going to be burnt - the price was never going to stay up that high.
Maybe it was to be a case of lots of the little people losing a little each but taking the big guys for a lot. At some stage the shorts were going to win as the price was just unreasonably high.

The naked short sellers were burnt something horrible but the covered short sellers who sold high (above $200+) are laughing like well fed hyenas.

Meanwhile, reddit intra day traders who thought GameStop can be a recipe for becoming millionaires as they moved to other stocks snd silver are getting burnt something terrible.

All rather predictable snd sad, really.

[silu]

The naked short sellers were burnt something horrible but the covered short sellers who sold high (above $200+) are laughing like well fed hyenas.

Meanwhile, reddit intra day traders who thought GameStop can be a recipe for becoming millionaires as they moved to other stocks snd silver are getting burnt something terrible.

All rather predictable snd sad, really.

I know one person who was so swept up in the "we can beat the big guys" euphoria and obviously got in at the wrong end of the rally and now is hoping it will come right again. Useless to talk to. Doesn't want to hear a single opinion about why he might be wrong. Reminds me of a mate who still tries to tell me that I just don't understand Tesla and there is still lots of value in it. But then I was the same many years ago and boy did I learn from my mistakes.

[BigBob]

The naked short sellers were burnt something horrible but the covered short sellers who sold high (above $200+) are laughing like well fed hyenas.

Meanwhile, reddit intra day traders who thought GameStop can be a recipe for becoming millionaires as they moved to other stocks snd silver are getting burnt something terrible.

All rather predictable snd sad, really.

Very true, but it might have worked out differently if the big boys hadn't clubbed together and changed the rules of the game, in effect preventing the reddit crowd and other retail investors from buying GME and other heavily shorted stocks just as things were getting interesting...

[porkandpuha]

Something I don't understand is how the Reddit crowd was ever not going to be burnt - the price was never going to stay up that high.
Maybe it was to be a case of lots of the little people losing a little each but taking the big guys for a lot. At some stage the shorts were going to win as the price was just unreasonably high.

From what I can gather on some of the NZ facebook groups, the mob believed they were part of some noble crusade to take down Wall Street and didn't care if they lost their dough while fighting the fight. Despite Wall Street shifting the goal posts mid game, the end game was always going to result in novice investors holding the bag as we are starting to see. So who really won?

[LEMON]

I know one person who was so swept up in the "we can beat the big guys" euphoria and got in at the wrong end of the rally and now is hoping it will come right again. Useless to talk to. Doesn't want to hear a single opinion about why he might be wrong. Reminds me of a mate who still tries to tell me that I just don't understand Tesla and there is still lots of value in it. But then I was the same many years ago and boy did I learn from my mistakes.

This is very true, I was telling a group the other day to be careful as it will crash. As they proceed to add funds the next day it crashed and they insist it will fly again.
Very funny how common sense goes out the window in pursuit of money.
I can only hope no one burned to hard, but it will be a big lesson for many, in saying that not all take the lesson and insist they must "win"

[bull....]

could easily argue anyone invested in the market now has been swept up by the mania. be plenty of people telling you after the crash ... i told you so lol

[dreamcatcher]

From what I can gather on some of the NZ facebook groups, the mob believed they were part of some noble crusade to take down Wall Street and didn't care if they lost their dough while fighting the fight. Despite Wall Street shifting the goal posts mid game, the end game was always going to result in novice investors holding the bag as we are starting to see. So who really won?

Agree -Wall St hedge funds manipulative practices have now been brought to the attention of regulators which was probably the goal. Also wonder if only been able to Sell but not Buy GME is considered FAIR

"Yellen has asked to discuss recent volatility and whether trade has been consistent with fair and efficient markets"

Swings in some Reddit favorites ease; Yellen eyes stock volatility | Reuters (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-retail-trading/reddit-trading-frenzy-fades-as-yellen-summons-agencies-idUSKBN2A30Q4)

[777]

To get this back on thread.

No comments on the $3.7 million the new boss picks up for simply parking his car in the correct spot next week. Taints of the last stuff up by the board.

[Biscuit]

To get this back on thread.

No comments on the $3.7 million the new boss picks up for simply parking his car in the correct spot next week. Taints of the last stuff up by the board.


Why are people always itching to "get back on thread"? Say something interesting and the thread will follow. That is the thread. Say something interesting and "on topic" and the thread will go back on topic. The CEO, just like the rest of us, will get paid his agreed salary wherever he parks his car.

[Balance]

To get this back on thread.

No comments on the $3.7 million the new boss picks up for simply parking his car in the correct spot next week. Taints of the last stuff up by the board.

$3.7m is cheap if he performs.

$3.7m is horrendously expensive if he proves to be a waste of space.

This guy is a proven performer with Pacific Brands?

[777]

Why are people always itching to "get back on thread"? Say something interesting and the thread will follow. That is the thread. Say something interesting and "on topic" and the thread will go back on topic. The CEO, just like the rest of us, will get paid his agreed salary wherever he parks his car.

Always one isn't there.

I wasn't commenting on his salary. It was the issue of shares to him before he even started that I was referring to. I thought it was interesting , sorry you don't.

[Balance]

Always one isn't there.

I wasn't commenting on his salary. It was the issue of shares to him before he even started that I was referring to. I thought it was interesting , sorry you don't.

Let's hope he stays around long enough to earn the welcome bonus?

Jayne Hrdlicka lasted all of 16 months before the board decided she was too hot to trot .

If the truth be known, she actually had the right strategy in mind to offset ATM's over-reliance on the Daigou sales channel.

The rest as they say, is history.

How confident are we that the board has made the right decision this time (paying $3.7m to entice him) and will they support him if he comes up with the same strategy as Jayne?

[Entrep]

Why are people always itching to "get back on thread"? Say something interesting and the thread will follow. That is the thread. Say something interesting and "on topic" and the thread will go back on topic. The CEO, just like the rest of us, will get paid his agreed salary wherever he parks his car.
Covfefe
Covfefe

[Biscuit]

..... will they support him if he comes up with the same strategy as Jayne?

You would think they discussed strategy with him prior to appointing him? Maybe they just discussed shares and car parking?

[dreamcatcher]

Covfefe
Covfefe

Trump had a few deficiencies spelling been one ............means someone get me a COFFEE

[Balance]

You would think they discussed strategy with him prior to appointing him? Maybe they just discussed shares and car parking?

You would think so, wouldn’t you?

Did they discuss strategy with Jayne before appointing her and then, disagreeing with her 15 months later?

Short term pain for long term gain - rather fundamental!

[Balance]

Motley Fool update : A2 Milk Company Ltd

A2 Milk shares are liked by at least four brokers including UBS and Morgans.

The A2 Milk share price is down by around 45% over the last six months.

UBS believes that A2 Milk could benefit from a recovery of sales with infant formula as it reactivates its daigou channel over the next year and a half. The broker also thinks that company could achieve market share gains at Chinese mother and baby stores.

However, whilst there continues to be COVID-19 restrictions for international visitors, combined with disappointing export data, it’s likely that there will be weak infant formula sales for the time being.

A2 Milk itself has admitted to these problems. In the most recent update the company said that the disruption in the daigou channel, which represents a significant portion of the infant nutrition sales in the Australia and New Zealand business, was proving to be more significant and protracted than was previously anticipated.

One problem for the ASX share is that the daigou channel disruption is having a material impact on the cross border e-commerce channel (CBEC). A2 Milk says that the daigou channel plays an important role in stimulating demand across multiple sales channels, including CBEC.

A2 Milk said that it intends to strengthen its focus on reactivating the daigou channel in the second half of FY21.

On the mother and baby store (MBS) front in China, A2 Milk said that this remains very strong – it’s expecting to report revenue growth of 40% from this channel. The 12-month rolling market value share in MBS also continues to increase, it was 2.3% as at the end of October, with increases in both same store sales and the number of new stores in the first half.

[dreamcatcher]

Good breakdown of UBS write up

[Balance]

https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/THE-A2-MILK-COMPANY-LIMIT-11384022/

Consensus recommendation from 9 brokers : Hold

Mean target price : $13.56 vs $10.97

23% upside potential vs potential 3rd downgrade - hmmmm

[James108]

So what is it? Will atm keep growing? If so price is surely cheap? Or are recent downgrades indicative of no/low growth going forward but being blamed on covid.

[Balance]

So what is it? Will atm keep growing? If so price is surely cheap? Or are recent downgrades indicative of no/low growth going forward but being blamed on covid.

That’s the great thing about the market - opposing views and one will be right! Choose carefully!

[BlackPeter]

So what is it? Will atm keep growing? If so price is surely cheap? Or are recent downgrades indicative of no/low growth going forward but being blamed on covid.

Correct :);

[Balance]

Correct :);

As they say, on the one hand but on the other hand.

[winner69]

Correct :);

A bit like price is what you pay, value is what you make the spreadsheet come up with.

[King1212]

Bunch of desperate holders looking for answers...

[McPussPuss]

Hah, got anything constructive to add? Hotcopper wants you back

Bunch of desperate holders looking for answers...

[King1212]

All u all want to hear is atm will head back to $20...with short position around 7percent...n increasing up....u all might wonder why the sp keep down...

All u want to hear is positive comments ..lol

[Habits]

Bought recently but will sell on Monday and reinvest into other stocks. Fonterra perhaps, which is on a growth path and upgrading forecasts

[Snoopy]

Bought recently but will sell on Monday and reinvest into other stocks. Fonterra perhaps, which is on a growth path and upgrading forecasts


Be careful with that. The listed FSF that you can buy into is the upstream processing part of the company. A higher milk price might be good for farmers. But it is bad for FSF because they have to pay for their milk to process at 'market rates'. As a processor, you do not want your input costs to go up!

SNOOPY

[winner69]

The way many talk on this thread you’d think A2 is on its last legs and heading to the bankruptcy courts

[McPussPuss]

No, you have me wrong.

I just wanted to get some extra insight from you regarding the pressure the daigou channel is presently under and how this is adversely impacting the CBEC channels. Also how these two factors are providing a solid narrative behind shorting and in addition why the new CEO will have his hands full and ultimately fail to bring the company and it's share price back to the overpriced, frothy heights seen just under 12 months ago.

Your insights are usually a lot more substantial and sharp and I genuinely urge you return to your own high standards as I have a hunger for quality analysis.


All u all want to hear is atm will head back to $20...with short position around 7percent...n increasing up....u all might wonder why the sp keep down...

All u want to hear is positive comments ..lol

[Baa_Baa]

The way many talk on this thread you’d think A2 is on its last legs and heading to the bankruptcy courts

Aint that the truth, a good sign to be averaging in when the fear is almost palpable. Personally I don't really worry too much if it goes down or sideways for awhile, there's a few things the new CEO has to get fixed but that said they'll still be sitting on a cash mountain, making a truckload of revenue and profits.

Downside risk imho is minimal, upside risk is attractive at these prices. Happy to do the swings and roundabouts while things settle down, but haven't missed a re-entry and have some moola left over if SP goes lower.

[winner69]

All u all want to hear is atm will head back to $20...with short position around 7percent...n increasing up....u all might wonder why the sp keep down...

All u want to hear is positive comments ..lol

Excuse me your majesty for saying thsi is not one of your better posts

[King1212]

Well master winner...all these people started....u can not even say anything bad about ATM.... people here is so on the moon with this stock..

As soon as someone post something that these holders don't like...they will attacked u hard.

People need to relax here....


N I am loving it when see all these people crying like a girl

[Gregnz]

King1212, Your talking like your either high or drunk. Is it English you are writing?

[McPussPuss]

I guess we may be waiting a week or two for his excellent input to return to the forum, he will be sorely missed

King1212, Your talking like your either high or drunk. Is it English you are writing?

[Baa_Baa]

I guess we may be waiting a week or two for his excellent input to return to the forum, he will be sorely missed

We’ll see how that ages.

[Habits]

Be careful with that. The listed FSF that you can buy into is the upstream processing part of the company. A higher milk price might be good for farmers. But it is bad for FSF because they have to pay for their milk to process at 'market rates'. As a processor, you do not want your input costs to go up!

SNOOPY
Yes you're quite right, higher input costs means lower EBIT for the company... i will wait at least until the next results in March before making a presumptive move to FSF. Thanks.

[nztx]

Well master winner...all these people started....u can not even say anything bad about ATM.... people here is so on the moon with this stock..

As soon as someone post something that these holders don't like...they will attacked u hard.

People need to relax here....


N I am loving it when see all these people crying like a girl


I been waiting twice now for as the WSB folk would say 'ATM To The Moon' but it no happen

what went wrong for that to no happen - my friend ? ;)

[dreamcatcher]

Certainly does not look like shorts increasing since 1st Feb but reducing by 10.77% course these run 4 days behind so be interesting to see if trend continues. Shortmans chart also shows a decrease in shorts. Maybe not all shorts believe result all bad. Course new Unknown CEO strategy may see a BB at these levels a positive and not long before we find out future plans. Everyone can play this game short or long ....your call !!

Latest UBS TP range $10 - $23.50 suggests everything already built in risk/reward low.

https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAA5QAAAD3CAYAAAB ivhshAAAgAElEQVR4nOydd5wU5f3HV 6OjnRB4OhIEVxxbYjYAxJ7vawVE0v8mZjYYhaTCLZTQMEaTTBr 1EjsKGUROILgonLAgXdwFO8WPASkSr1 n98fuzs788wzz8zs7e2U/b5fr 8Lbsozs9/vzPOdzzxlPM3GTgYZGRkZGRkZGRkZGRkZmVnzWH0CZGRkZGRkZ GRkZGRkZM40EpRkZGRkZGRkZGRkZGRkSRkJSjIyMlfYqPtnWn4 OdjwXMvsbXS/uNYpt5vjOaedLRpZKa4SgnIkZO8Fn59cYlbKTnI0QgNBU652VP ov6NvKJXuXEiYHA9xNWsoE6gBn3N75cd1n0epOjHwcdm7oFwBZ MsPy3pcdU19nK2Sr/pvZ 1rtf1DGNk5rzmI2QdC x5yJfRyayUZ8c4Mfl/q8RSUX9M3WL7j1tv2vXOTZhJeuvhM/Z3zfqkwMpyimimCR778XrC16dHc NRupzdWyb/BpvUkuVX4wYrx4V3XsU69Sa1vO9NblM7svU5fEmeNbLcGu0oFQ HMtUJkgSlyC9sAo8 ELE3PX/beLJX tZMuS6z 79GxKA/TFkGCUr1Q2UsMUnLrBOUqmNO3dIE17R7BEJa7f6vEYnHgrlfJq xMzfXCFTzC9Xa4dp1jPJE4YSUQWrmF69fU/OamEpQHEOE939z/NSI7DyCSjMhIwzXetJYqvxixdApKirXW7 HnTIvPX 7bRpXRBM96GW5NICgnRy86eWKJBY//RiFWEUyVbyO/WJiKJF5WLOjKNxduETx6CVe8nk3sogcp5bbmynWXCX67Sngwb 9UPpG/ TqAGZ wglJvf6eaRlJXJNTY/fyJ1v2u55 ZmLEz7lMAOIQ1e2Xbcq9zrYcRNubiuGjXNfHfzey/cjbHJ6Jj6NWFbq3vJsfq9dg1wv7f8P2h7VtlyyPvAdE 165jYyyPm/z33j8bIcVyM/eE3nrR80HiOLwcOOqTA4L6IhYnzj7R Ed/D6/c6LIv1XVBSq5xK824X4zFTauu06pHRfcexTq1pv18r3oOFDzf6 8UiqbqOKyjNPFOl5llP 3qYbeCc2FzgoHpeYGkQlOqHuWhyVyZp9g0Od3/2rQLb8uOaliAdQan3hkax3sSbO1PluswM/za21YK9XvlvVhPXpUbXGEckGfO UZve/W7Mv rKOYkWSkUdpnNcYV1jtMur3m/T8Y1r67vJmm/0J6w0Wt/o VavhdIm166jY8w8E0gPz5zlhutDvfWC5wP5vafyo D5RdqPFcIzMWPnFkyQn7 qXHldY6zVyvg1brWZ8Etj6zrdPMorj2LdZPey3FTPl4Lne1Esk q3rVM9q nW/eH xDww/E4iuh7H8es0dz30JawJBGXWqsDsL763vVL31nHIdlWzN 1bTh7q/m02yBn1kplzLfZRiM1WZsdvJ/MIrR76MexxRwnOaMeMSNFpvNe93Pf9y740UdHlNJq6K7QwISt3 fpuMb19Z3UVONObr/a0SMdj/S9a1 l1dbXLsOj/GElcrfEv//qE8OKP4vxUGvPtStLwXPB4r7kteSqX8/K7onxq9Hxb5MuYrzNTCuzsw1brmZ8Etj6zojXV41X pRrBtveiJc8Lwier4XCnSDxgpCA3W/9vnpHcfENWzqOc89Qx3k1jST8gi6nSUwJyijiJu53fFAbuBia6 ygVHVR0HqzJyjXch l2IxWMmx3biZe3NZGWQxEg8vdVrko7l3RODS2Ihb4l5/okp2UR1afGDwuv64xKCh1j2HsIct99R3f4m/zNSe3kJuub40ISjtcuw6P8dRE10HVA3rMN/LlevWhfn0pej5Q9s6Rx1 7C6RyP1YIRz6Zqcqp8nJ5Xd5E9bqpa9xyM GXFNV1yQlKinXjzayg1Hq F8UiybqOFZQG6n6FpehZT3Q96NdbbmpESFhKWyiVXVnVFxr/LazRFkqtAMuPzUsqTrQ0dnmVb0tdXjVnvR1lsPIyJChd1s3BnG tE5TCyttEUlLXNekSlKJzcJlJwkSvhdd4/MwJSuuvXUfGWIoRb9zkFkyQxlVGl vVh/r1pej5gMl90rnpPcwx15zUbVfjOpSuAfb6MPBi2Mw1brmZ8IvF gpJi3Vgz1 VV /neWCxM1XWNFZQpetYTXQ/69RYJSkMOUYlKXlCSFZS6D45uaUY28rZL HIzKQ87M1lplx3mV4FJOpC3Ngury4xzd9moquTwW6DKReUZrvN qB6O0tDl1cw162jTeqATvBxrbJdX2167TotxLHZT1ZOPTFgZm1 RFvlyvPjTVa0Y0flnmf9XkMbwy5fcz83tUcY6dg8akNPzYJXGN W24m/GJpl1eKdWruY37uUzwH6j7fm4mFwbqusV1eU/WsJ7oedOstEpQGHRJ7Y6E1RkLqbmnwrS 3n7JGF03XtKAZubEYP8dM NkQbssZu72Zcl1mMX ox FA3U1Db INppucqtui6qHKDb7lDzSPdv8w gLJmH9TLijNDsDX7AUgeqg1NlGF4TGUrqnvGJN1mzT Rl9/YgZDk/JYfe26IMYTViL6uQXOtyfVy/XqQ731gucDzgO71BVNdywt04oqzwuc65Bfrk63O9PXuNVmxi NrOsaLSgp1o0zjef7qVsA1f0mer4X CzZuq6xk/LIzrNxz3r614NevUaCUu Ck110ir7FEmzzsElByQSV/RC1OwJkfHyq6kPcet2HGLT8ZaZcd5l6vJ06STDxEU5zf0D/syEOe2DUM/G1Y6QVTuRffr0jfngwOvZXHFftuob/UJLcZ0PEvnFnfcfGgLkf4vlE9/caiJ9Ol1c7XLuOjzH70Bk31SysGj7T yQA5wUo//mA0wKkeQ5y43Wf1GkR0ShX 2Ez2WvcSjPrl8bVdep61JygpFg3xrSeQdXPKuLne7HPkqrruMJ T75lMK/ZKzD/ria4zUb1FgpKMjIyMjIyMzJlm61YhMoq1S41ikRFGgpKMjIyMj IzM9SafyZPM3Uaxto9RLDLDSFCSkZGRkZGRudfiY7syZuhGBhv F2j5GscgoI0FJRkZGRkZGRkZGRkZGlpSRoCQjIyMjIyMjIyMjI yNLykhQkpGRkZGRkZGRkZGRkSVlJCjJyMjIyMjIyMjIyMjIkjI SlGRkZGRkZGRkZGRkZGRJGQlKMjIyMjIyMjIyMjIysqSMBCUZG RkZGRkZGRkZGRlZUkaCkoyMjIyMjIyMjIyMjCwpI0FJRkZGRkZ GRkZGRkZGlpR5QGhSVlZm9SlILFxUgLnnjMVrnQZiSueBmNp5I J7vPBDTOg/EjJhN6TIInz0wER/ dTKm9huBycf3wtPH5 Kp43Mx8fhemNJlkCH7d eBeP/xp7B39x6rf3ZGYKfrjGgaKMbWQH63DvK9vaB42BuKD F0SFAKsNsNfvjnn/Hem2/hM98FeKPTAMMC0ai92W0IZk 4F1 v Nrqn5pR2O06I1IPxdgayO/WQb63FxQPe0PxIZwOCUoBdr3Bfz5wAO9 8BE v/VufNpvJF5thIj8R dB OyMi/D6Cy/iiyX/s/qnZSR2vc6I1EExtgbyu3WQ7 0FxcPeUHwIp0OCUoATbvCilYUIznofbzz9HD67/EbMPekMvN/3VLzU82S83GUQXuwyCC93GYRXupyEf504DO/3H4mFw87BvN89jH 8/S7 8/GnOHzokNU/I6NxwnVGNA6KsTWQ362DfG8vKB72huJDOB0SlAKceIPv3LoVJW vW4q33P1TZh7M/R8mataitrbX6NAkZTrzOCHNQjK2B/G4d5Ht7QfGwNxQfwumQoBRANziRDug6cz8UY2sgv1sH d5eUDzsDcWHcDokKAXQDU6kA7rO3A/F2BrI79ZBvrcXFA97Q/EhnI6nrKwMZGRkZGRkZGRkZGRkZO63lAvKlJfoIprC4QTBQteZ 6EYWwP53TrI9/aC4mFvKD6E0yFBKSDZG9zj8ZAZMCIKJRL3QzG2BvK7dZDv7QXF w95QfAinQ0/1AkhQkqBMB5RI3A/F2BrI79ZBvrcXFA97Q/EhnA491QsgQUmCMh1QInE/FGNrIL9bB/neXlA87A3Fh3A69FQvgAQlCcp0QInE/VCMrYH8bh3ke3tB8bA3FB/C6dBTvQASlCQo0wElEvdDMbYG8rt1kO/tBcXD3lB8CKdDT/UCSFCSoEwHlEjcD8XYGsjv1kG txcUD3tD8SGcDj3VCyBBSYIyHVAicT8UY2sgv1sH d5eUDzsDcWHcDr0VC ABCUJynRAicT9UIytgfxuHeR7e0HxsDcUH8Lp0FO9gFQLyiFDh mDU2WchND Ezp064vPPPkdOTjZWhFdg fLlyMrKwqXjLsWaNWtwztlenH322fhy6ZdYvmw5OrRvh//OmoXly5fjheefR9u2bbF82XJ8seALtGrdBgMHDMANN1yPm2 6CS1btlQct2BxgfT/xYsWY/ny5bjy8ivQPCcnWv7y5eg3/CR4PB68 sqr6NatGzweDy66MHouZ591prR/525dcNdvbobH40FWVhaWL1 Opf9bivHjLsUTk5/A8uXLcd 9/0eC0gSUSNwPxdgayO/WQb63FxQPe0PxIZwOPdULaIoWyoLFBfhh2w946cXpeO/d95CTk41PP/kUM6ZPj65ftBifzf4MZ/iGwuPx4Oqrr0Lv3F7weDz48ccfMWP6dFx4vg8nnNAVC0IL8Mbr b CyS8dg5KmjsHfPXjzy8MNo06aNdLyTh52MGTOm4/7f/x4ejwfHjh7D3Xfehe0V29E8JwflZeXSsZvn5ODLL6MC1uPxYEF oARYtXIQRw31Seb16dsETk5 Q/m7fpSOmTZkKj8eDt4JB9B10EtatW4cWzXNIUBqEEon7oRhbA/ndOsj39oLiYW8oPoTTseipPoyAzwcf1wIIW3NSKppCUB44cADj Lx2PhoYGeE/xIicnG7fefAtO6NoJWVnNsHXrVnTv1hU/bNsGj8eD2269VSEoT jaCV06d0THDh0xedLj P7779GuXTuMPHUUzj7rLNTX1ysE5dq1a7FmzRrU1NTA4/Gg8lglrrvmWvzlsb geU4OlixZghO6dkLz5jl44I8PYN26dThy5Ag8Hg8i5RH06T0E /btUwjK56c9jxO79 MKSt Zp6OiogLNmjWzTFCGgyH4phQhwiyPzC2Ab2IBgruZFetWwDdxh ey624fglBB8E2XGKU 5v842AuyfSNj7VX2PRoJ xX3sD0b0i40E4dfZR1muH6JiI0E/fP6gIAZG650Ign7ZOmGZRo7rhBgLCAcUvgoYqKDDAZ/xfSJB FWxlcVK5dsIgn7xtRDHKX4PBT3wzilllpYif7oHnklKU2/HUJEPr3B7ptxgiD0b5MXXTc9HqWpfL/Ir9H TU3yvRekcL8c3MSry4Z2UB421MWR VJlsXyZeap9TPOxMOKCR7wzkNzkUH22izwEibRDLF0aSE7NfuL GCg5u/RJvrPy84FRs1E0UvCEMPommiKQRlp06dpH PO 44eDwedOvWDd26dUOzZs3QsmVLnDv2AqnbavPmzZGVlQWPx4MT TjgB3bp1Q9euXXHcccehdevWaNGyBTp17ITWrVshOzsLHTp0wH Ge46Tjndi9OzweDzp27AiPx4OuXbtKx/R4POjePXrs7JxsaV3Lli2RnZOD5s1bYOSpo9BC1oW2WbNm0nl4 PB4cd9xxaNu2LTweDzp06IBu3bqhTevW1nZ5VQlEICoSC CfEoJ/7j7FmnAwBF8wHusyBCZqbKMqU7ZuSgH8E0MIrDN/uvZOJOr7kq3c1ZW9gXs5JlICiULgZ4RHVJSIjiMjnrxNV9Tqcw 0H5OXExKVWojJ4XHvHWAAbl3BAV9gr/ccpQ3mAmHhXlhkOJHwu/790DgYfHJzg91BQS/hFhUReoYnCCvPgke8TEyuJMmJiUhJK0b/lxw4FE vl/5fK1xJZDE7wvRalc7waYhsyAagnKHlEYyr5WxWfmM9lwpHiYV/iL87UuY7JK8I6MArFR5uoCPPDr5FnwwE//KI8zSUaI9MatJGQoEwDqocQG9AUgjI7Ows5OdkZYZYJyt1F8LM tkbuL4J9ShPDcAqYlMdoaKQlIrhgF4kJTLRjjy2OtmkHz14ytE 0k4wBFx8oo4KgjYhCquNPkiTSEcuAlYKwHEzsFvvqJW1zucY2i gTR XFvHWAAvjiqBp4AfI619pAcFhX jfk1cCvJzCCNgoheL1X4vnePltCrFibc8eeGdzhGUFfnwTjLW hQ7GiMWY0eRixBey1phnuwco2XEBY7y/EPIMyGirPa9JoV5AjEYb72NxoT1ZVxoeqd7kxKUrFjkXh KuGdAPBxJvAdFVMgYyX96QoLio03cd8EALw HEfAHERTmJR4kKFONPQSlgbfeVtAUgvKmkS9h8OMf4NxrZuKSO z/C6ZNDGPrkpzjz6cU4K1SI0YtDuHTp /jVV5/hxsU3Ycb7QzDjzT7wzxiOy94Zg0eWXojr/tQLn3/aHSNv6IAr54/FwwUX4l/fnI3HPjodx4r7YcUrXfHeI 2w4K8dcfgvfXDw6v748/D2WHhWTywc1x0HX83F gt646VTT8DNv2iGS65rhb4TR6DLfcNw8pvXouWEgTj9vWvRY8b TuHzxYxg/bxwuDo7Gue cj3sKLsEDs87E1Jn9MeBXXZF15eloMfo2XDt8Gv4y4Bn8Z/B0fON9Gb/p 0sLx1AyIhGx7q7BspjYlAlGVnyuW8HvFqtBtBtttDz5/83gvESiXxGLK00DFTlXyGptGk0kpitqbr1jXFCaOa7zYhzFvKD kw90nHmOVf7UFZSToN9WLxWq/iwRlokulupUQgI7w4ZFEi6bqONoCpnSOV7 7rQyrfa JyK8yca1qDUQIeXGhZzo28X0MvCAwKChdEw8HEgn6Y/UZ/4Uqt76LBOEX5DSKjzZSDuD0TonnBJXPmS7HPkWXWGb4i2w/5XANZd6Pxj0oDYnxByPq5wPhcTk5lRlSYr7brn2wgaDU6VJmIU 0hKM auhTdr/8Lxvn/i9H5X6LXwy/jgj8vwFkPf4CxSz/GBQtm4ZplH Oygufw0ILzMP1/o/D4l fjrwvPRf /evHwkguxc/sg/PqulngkOByj/jUG9yy BGc/OBhfFnux/InOKH/2RDx5R0usf7k7Dl7dH6 P7IznT uEL0b3xD3D2mLfHX1QfGEubjmpPW644TgMzOuCc2eORu9Hvej2 cj6u/OLXuHbRrWhx/69x6fxbMX7eOHT981k475/nYPTjw3HCH4ai 50D0OL2gci68nS0PuduXB0TlO/ZQlCy3VijAjPausi0NOqNnxS2OLKtklqtmGIcl0h0XwAZ6SbqR zCirNRV3WrjCUQ0hlImPM0JSu1zZFstub0nTB7XcTGOw7YUG i6pYbXBVom3DmCne3yGt3XXOskYL3fxS2U0lZcQSl1uzQ6flIS Isqxe2LRwXTBhLqLZXSdudYwwHrfa2JQDKoFpfkyEvBbj7lbzl G2fro Ho6GJyj5IlNvrB3FR5tEjmVzQGI8vVJQcl4Ms8NsVNtwngmYZ5 34nA7aL5z1j6t4XlBdE9a0mqYK6wWlyQGt6aQpBOWYyf/DRde8hfMfmYuudz6B8373IU77eB3OCH2GvjNfxTmfv4Orl32M3 ywZiztmn4d/Lz4F/y4chQee7Y3bPxmDz9adjk2f9sIvrm Jy/KHYfi0M3HjF2Nx6Ss HNndH9tn5 K9G9th/219UDGuL94f1Q039emCT8/qjpv6dMGfLm6O/Iub45HBHXHTuONwy 2tMXzyKeg7cQSa3zQI5819B9csugOj3jgHnuvGwfvJqxg/bxzO vQ2jHrnWoyddQE63DUM2TdeiBGvXYLWd56DFqNvUwjKr0a8ZLm gxLoVsq6tZQjIRKNcbCqFJ7P/ROXEPOy4Sl7XWq0JgUQ4KpHEBIWolYgd 6hVhmIbplxpMh72zZ6g8jUlKHXqHcVbSlXtbv64jooxi KNq9m6OpakRa2cBiflSbROiibsUWKJ32PjGLnGFZd8QRkdWykX DWrxp4A3ti 2TDwxDytM1JPAJFrDRBPEKLHVNc9OfKMwvjBLqaA02n2ZHQMbP RP3xcM1kKBMB/IcGw4wLzhly8UNU6xYY/7WaEGWl8udx0FXwwieF2zaOzNZLBeUdu5P3BSCcsiFk3DxdW/j7F /jfMfmQffO6vRO/gKOt33OC5YsgzXf/kOfrX4evyu4GKURwZjnL8t3i4chYsnDsUr/zsTR3b3R15eM4wMDMO4V87ErXMuxPn/vRBvrTwbB17uhdd 1QqzftsOW8f2Rdkv uDWfh1xW7 OuHvY8bjv1Jao GcPTPW3wP3nNcO9v2 HwXmd0fvR4WjhPwk5V52Ckz6Yiezf3oFrF1wKz3XjMHbpPIybe zl /7 LcevicfjlBxcg 0ov2o 6D0OCd L4CUPR6 w/Sl1eFw2bgfApL GOPhYLSpQhEBd761YoRaMkNuUtlyISrZbybSOq8Zgw3WUWcFAi iQsLQaUdFWI6FaRGBSyvrPn1gvINIptAzNQl2ttqTUKUON9kju uYGDNoTbhkrEdJfMIdJgGz3ZmNvFTkPjhoPLjJsNrvjWmh1CxP S8hoiBbhPoB V8yKfHhV3UD1z9lq32tiQQuloesgJiYNzeLrpng4GhKU6UAlwm QCL 5nvqBkZmwXCUq26ymnGyo313Pjqn1cZRnMdk5tmoxhsaDUfyCw kqYQlOde TrG3vo Tpu9Fqd9ug7dX5iCE8Y8iLNe/gY3Lp8N/6LL8eiSC7B1ywA8 qc2uPLxYfj9YyfgxldG4oF3T8XKtSdh7HUtcUFwDPo/fiqumD8Og54ciRWrhuHIy7l4bHxz7PpDLl4d3h0/XdYPy0fn4pZzs/DDcz1w3ykt8dBl2fhxVk/87vJs/PZ3bdH39wPhe2UUPFdeiC4PPIbsO29D84d h3M/vwctbj0XV345C79adDle 3o03vj6HLS/pQ aXXwJLrnoNXSd8gI8V12IM097Gjef9jL MuAZLBn2Ij4aMt0GgjIhFsNBpnVRalmUiU6D5bHdW9lWTM3WTA GOSCSpEpNSWcl1X00kDdEnQPTOQbveEQlZVeuYieM6IsYqNLrf GBrfqiEmof6kiJHPzSTeSnPGVwquSav9nmpBKRQyWq1guuJHfP xQMN5ixhnPJ jCabXvNUm7oDQQX6NiEi6Mh6OhMZTpgD8xm/LzUbwur7xxk1qCUv/TJEYEpf5xNV9AywWtQ4WlxYLS3v2Fm0JQXnjz2zj3meU4e9FKD P/oXbQ 5ze45J6PcN7ib3D1onsx46vROLK7PxZP6Yzb72qNYf4umB4 Fy GR OromG46zct0O9XXdHh3sHI 2Isbn9/NO5ffBE2rz8Jwava4fFH2uPn6/ph12V9sfScXrinX1f85fwcvHJ6Fzzw6zZY HxnPHhfG/zr0XY4Na8j/rT0Qhx/z2Dk/PYOdLtvGi4fMRUjTp EDs89hXM/uxXXL7wa9xdchAO7BmDkDR3Q/PrBaDV6AsaMfwMX/W42ml17PS4bMQ03n/Yybh3yHN4dPB2f2EJQxloQg0UITmFFY0xsBldwZ3zVGjep6B4r aIkUfWKEh 0TSSq6uSoLVIiCxGHYsQVseeIXUMZbKLXrHX1BmdxxbR9jLskK Sn43V 3NdVooZa2TmSMoBeMqNctTCgzuPlwhJBA8stYw1wiYtAtKncmS uN1cNXBjPByN8VnOaZbX5GF9Fw74EAgGFZ8RUQhKXo5Sjf/ntVAm8a1ref4ycFzd5wUTExLaDWsFpY3HTwJN1EI5aTHOWLAOZ 38WRPNzb8Y4/38x5pnluH7Zf/Dg/y6C/972OLK7P264/jiMv645bpt9Pn7z7tnY/n1frF0zEEN 1QUtbxuADvcNxVWhcbgqNA6Pf3k /P4sTBjbDFuWD0TkF30R UVf3NSnM 4cdDxuueg4LHv5BDwyuTse/XMHHN7ZDzfccBzOnjQCDxdcgB4PnYycu29GyxvvwD0nT8NfB bjkrs/xNmfTsBNi6/BB1 PxJjr2qC5fxCa a9C17MfwJjxb AXN81C51F/wOVXvY2rh0/DIwOexpt2GUMJJMZBcsY0RkUfRzzG9tEbL6k59lJWhtHJeeydS PS/KWnkzZ66WF63R873IIVjKDnnYUTECOsd/S6vyRzX3jHWJpkur6Y/AWVgPKvq 6QO6fJqDNGkPOrxkELhwQod1RjK2Jg7mfAQdYlNtIYl/s6ULpYpE5Si8ZNGYsqcU6bGw55o1UH0HcpUwubY BwLms8LKnGYaDlkJ FJlMF7EaqMozFBKT6u3hjKZGZRtwvWCkqbK/GmEJRnfrgGlyyehawx1 Oiq9/COP9/cfqCEty4KA9PB0/CCwvPxPf/7YkbbjgON70xEu uGoXfhc7Htm2Dce/97XD8rX3Q 7lLcNOiS/HIkguxZNVwHNndH6 92gMHn83Fwav7Y935fbDzir6YecqJeGhIe7wVPAHhv3dHaF4uj uzuj6Mze PGG47Dk4vOwaAnR LqOWPR/NaB6PvGizj135/jdF8 xlz6OrLuuAk5E85Hi9sHosXtA5Fz7Zk46YOZaDH6NowZ/wZu8b2CC68KIvcfb Hq4dPw5uDpWDB0Blaf9oo9BGWsWyq3 6lQ9PG6s7KfGhEJRnPfpLRzIpEmx9HsnijqApq4t7U/GyHu7iiawpt7rkY caFb77C/KYluMAx2jrEe7DUg7N7FmzJdbwIdkaAMBzj72XxSHtNoiwF2pl dWeHBFDzMpkLpc5SywRj6hwd3X5ZPAJCMoteMhmPhHY7IglcjM 8HjYE8FLLaYu1BvaRfHRRpVjdWYGl/ZRjGFUz IqbaM1ppH3cllnDKXecbXEsW6edACWT8pjZ5pCUI5eNB/HXXQVepz1J1x0zb9x/sPsdPsAACAASURBVMSFuH7557i74BKc8NtBKNp0Mn56qBd dXMODuwcgCWLc3Fg1wAcfCUXv7rsOJzwh6HIWzge9y65BNPCY7 B/bT8cerM3Dl7dHwev7o /DOuK2/p0wZNDuuHuwW1wxxk52L2tH8J/74bDb Ri7yO5WHFXF9z7YGe8MP1EBOcPw4MFF6LVhEE4bvxVaHbzteg6 6vc4/5LXkOd7CTnn/wrN8q5Hx/wncdwN43H50g/RYuyvMebS13GL7xXc4nsFXUZHJ V5a/B0LD35JRsJSmeQGYkkjIAlb92sOq6SzIix/SC/Wwf53l5QPOwNxYdwOvRUL6ApBGXzli2QlZWFnOzmaNGiFVq0ag lPm PRvEVzNG/ZAm3bN0NWVhZatmiOtu2boVWrFmjTvhlatmyBVq1aIisrC81bt pCsTfMctMlOWE5ODrKystAmOwctWjRHq1Yt0bp1c7Ru1QKtWzZ Hi xs5GRloVWrlmjVqqV0jKysLOTkRM8hJ7u5yrKyspCdlS2tb926 DVq1aq3YRn4e2VlZJCgNkhGJJBywZvItq47LkBExtiHkd sg39sLioe9ofgQToee6gU0haAkI0HJkgmJJBIMWDJW2qrjsmRC jO0I d06yPf2guJhbyg hNOhp3oBJChJUKYDSiTuh2JsDeR36yDf2wuKh72h BBOh57qBZCgJEGZDiiRuB KsTWQ362DfG8vKB72huJDOB16qhdAgpIEZTqgROJ KMbWQH63DvK9vaB42BuKD F06KleAAlKEpTpgBKJ 6EYWwP53TrI9/aC4mFvKD6E06GnegEkKElQpgNKJO6HYmwN5HfrIN/bC4qHvaH4EE6HnuoFkKAkQZkOKJG4H4qxNZDfrYN8by8oHvaG4 kM4HXqqF0CCkgRlOqBE4n4oxtZAfrcO8r29oHjYG4oP4XToqV4 A3eBEOqDrzP1QjK2B/G4d5Ht7QfGwNxQfwul4ysrKQEZGRkZGRkZGRkZGRuZ S7mgTHmJLqIpHE4QLHSduR KsTWQ362DfG8vKB72huJDOB0SlALoBifSAV1n7odibA3kd sg39sLioe9ofgQTocEpQC6wYl0QNeZ 6EYWwP53TrI9/aC4mFvKD6E0yFBKYBucCId0HXmfijG1kB tw7yvb2geNgbig/hdEhQCqAbnEgHdJ25H4qxNZDfrYN8by8oHvaG4kM4HRKUAjLlB q8s/E53m /harVq1SLJs7Z05TnVJGkSnXWSZDMbYG8rt1kO/tBcXD3lB8CKdDglKA227wqu27ULXtR8Wyw/ dh/Lsodg64GJp2afvzcLbb7 N fPn4z// Q/efOMNzJg HW / S8UFBSgZNVqvPTii3jnrX n ye4ErddZ4QairE1kN tg3xvLyge9obiQzgdEpQC3HaDl7fxorz1KYplOy65HeXZQ1Hec ri0LLKuGIXLw1i6dCk /vhjzPnkU8yYPh3vv/su/vWvf HD/76PF2fMwMcffJDun BK3HadEWooxtZAfrcO8r29oHjYG4oP4XRIUArIhBu8vP1pUUGZ PRR1lVVWn05GkgnXWaZDMbYG8rt1kO/tBcXD3lB8CKdDglKAlTd41dbt2P/Ua9h53X3YP/llHPjyG9QfPabYZv97n6Oy9HvNMiojFdg/KzHOsapsG45tTPymn27/kyQmy7OHYmu3s9FQVa0oo6GqGoe XZs4l6deQ WmcjQ0NKTolxKUSNwPxdgayO/WQb63FxQPe0PxIZwOCUoBVtzgDfX1UYHXYjiq9u6Xlm876Rcoz x6Kfe/PlZbFhWDtzj2qcuqrq6X19YeOoKGhIdESeawSDXV1CjEZt51X/59Uxv7ZC1GePRTbBo VllXt3Y/ynGEozx6KhuqaJvJCZkGJxP1QjK2B/G4d5Ht7QfGwNxQfwulYKyjDAfh8PskCYUvPRoUVN/iRzxZj68BL0FBfr1guCc3soWioqwOQEJS7rrtPVc6B5Sul9QAU ArJuT1SoHlteqBCTP5w0VlHGjsvuxN7p/ KeY3n2UGzrf1FKfnN62IfglBB8E0MIrEssDQdD8E1cAc1Lb90K 2T5lCDD7s X75 4zfWZuSCThgE9xL/t8PvhM3NDhgN72YQQUdUQEQT/nmD4ffD4/gpFGHDcShF9enj8IVXEm6y5Hx7gx9XQkCL8voH1/SduwMYvGm //CIJ YzF2tN9Z8jxAXkh/u1Ae4PHEzAuUitbHLU QWK5N5/ZuRTwcsrk4CrfI4S8SR54uJYHA1EBKvLh5W1bkQ vvLzp Yx7ZcdWrStF/nQv8iv0D ueNiZ5HKTOD7Gy9TPpZlIGOFw4v BVOoNbv5qBEy 1XwOSeq4cj kHusEZeyhTQpqOGDqQTAd2K0CjnQbFW1xjHV93fXA0wrRKGfbk HEozx6Kn25 CABfUAJApOPpiZbM2lrD51KePVQ1wY t2V0E/8QC KeE4JtSlLgxdxfBrykSY4JT2p4EJZ9osvMne/PGK1BBDR8XrOIkEEu6RjMF77hsvRQ/trwyj 0XMJGgHBvjxtTTkjAXCcr4g5L2Q5HqASkcMBxjx/qdJS4C9QRlKE8pIkN5jFgEkO/lCEUZcuHKithQnjFRCxf5XpOo0PPOMaCuJdHICMrY8rxCWalBp XAMBT3wBEOq/wMACvOUfwtwfzzsjH5uMiIoeTk2EvQr6lgSlCwpFpAsTSIo2Zw Zu354L7eNF9y0foCFgjIS9KucY7cbwW4VcHnLESjPHorDGzYDA KoiFZqCMr68 ruNALQF5Q7/A6pZXg2di8Zx7UpkbkFUGK5bAd/EAgR3x9fEWi7lIlMiKiATIpEEJZ/GVFRhBHx EXJNhyAz 9XCT0WNrEmc1xevcQmDG49FQ4IK3unxjjZejoaCx/8fnFMouX7mYQcTZ7xQyjPIYyA4Rg71 9KQlGR6DUgKPM8QL5c4JRG9wsx22iWw2yvEJ8htTgV4EzfR0Wi XOBpbhnktRiqKZ3jhWeSB97pXpWgLJ3jVZdRkQ/vpHirYynypyfOR7l9CHlGW0fh1Hi4AyO5KVlByeZfuz1HW48bB KVgufGCSVBaiZ0q4B v/T9JxP28KqFo9ARlHC1BuevhfJRnD0Wk3amGzqPm4CFEOp3hMEE pF4asSESsW6tcZEaJzC1gusOSoOSSdIWaSJKa975Utk5lyGlZb NRxueeg3Fe9jXZl79QYJ1dPR8V6MAJxEoyvU10/2oIyEvSbagl3qt8TxARefqnxLq9a 3P/1tieJyjzvYL91DjT9wYFZWEePJOMdDUNIS XWGese6xBgVl6RyvsdbRGM6MhwswmJtSKyiDyi6yvBegTJdKed mRoF9Rhj8YkerhYIAtVzY8QfU7eV11NVrfNLsFs uV /PyUWKZ8tzkywLKQgTDdXR gyp/Mcc0KwKNCkrOc5dy6JHgnJpIZ9mny6upB8L0YGUFXBmpwM vvIM9Dz LrT1GK8Y6ygXlD6dfi/Lsodj/zN lZYcWh1GePRQVI6 SlukKyvanaZ/L6hLsejgfu /9G8rbjVSciyNgBKPUWiltwBGZ8ZbLoPwaIEHJhdfn38CNLBcKf JEiT6JiQanqltqo43K21 tSpNMV1LExbmw9rSkoZfHUSoyyLq Ja8Bccnas3 PIBV0ygjLfqz0 kjt Euour/mlMNs6CTjV90YEZVTkGe1qKmFQUEZbNBPbsV1eoyLSXOsk4NR4 OB juSlZQRkVEUx 4gzJkPbl1LfRHJdYFu9hohwN4lcKT86QBv1cGRM2iYSi6sqpLI M5d0PHYJexzw7M3xpDWOLH1P0NOi cTTeUCbq8KnWu rhqP6pFpXweilRj7aQ8iskv7DV ErCmAq7 SAiXc/CtgEXo1b2mZCjWyJcQXlowbLo8lYjpGWRztEWxMMfJtJNMi2Uh csic78et/jiuV7H37WUYIyHGSEIWfcpKo1MjbmUtlqGRWUPoFloqBUV1wGx jIa6Eaq7uqoJWRMdOUw0n1VUTSbbHjL OMA5Tg6xo2ppzUEpcLvBiflSbROiibsUeJov5fmK8dDmhGU8ol 35K2KpfnqZSLRqWqdFE3Yo8Q5vo8JRI1Jd1TiUtGCaAIjgrIwj 3NM9aQ8idZJ0YQ9SpwTDzdhPDclPykPp8XObK8Spg7mddFVL OIXAPdMvXrfsXGGpOyiQSfOUGZTM9I7d gFsCm0ZqUhy1XflyuH9n4MH6IBJM/Rw2s7fKquPDYNxfWk 4KuK6yCuWtRmgKtW39L1IJSiDRvbW8rTdqHLFnVlBWbyxDefZQ/HjF3dxzcY6g5LUqclofGZGpbsXUKktZZiYKSi7CFjsDb/E0upFwqwfDYwtMvj2MVezc5KCo9P0IhsWJ0akxbnQ9zYuNga47 nBOBX9WqrD8ZlFP9zu2a2pgur8L9QmqRqSgin9NKqtd11qm 12 h5I57NIKeoIyJSd1urBX58MaOn2i9jIpi0b7OjIfDMTHuLfkur wh9QSWtJTpmskISkbIqZcZF5Tx1k1VDyYd/6j244irxglK437V/A1cMZ5kd9foyQt9qOwtJB5aEu26rOGHcMDsmelikaDUeDhs9KD T1JLuCnjXxGkozx6Kg7PmcNdvj3VvZQXl1u7nqL4nGengU2yjK yjbKgWlnmB0iqCMtjxqtSgqPxeSaMnUEo4kKA0jEgnsZzk4b1t FicRYskzuuLJCtcUkD526y5kxTkE9zdmW 4kZ3htYZh/5A4BifGXSMyfahHirobzlj10m6qKqB2 mV UJiMVhXnxMJWd8pUCoOsL3KvQEpb5w00QkKI2KSURFZPT8OOMr Bd1wnRkPZ2Om9SttglKWB7W6waZKUCbqeo0uqjq5xEh34aYWlL q/QfNZRy7YTegaTZ8w52pAUIr8EAn6jZ6RYUhQCkh3Bbzzinuigr KQ/w0LXpdXADj0yRcqQbkvME2xjZ6gLM8Zxj0Wj/qDhx0iKHnjIGPEWiTVk/OsQDj r2onEpQ8tMcUGr XzX HMk7jPlmife7a3ZSSmajGmTFuGkGpQq FUtY66UpBaRTdFkoNYSgXlFxxGWuh5BUtb50kQWlgvQAtQcnt5 qqBrHWSBKXdMZeb0iUouTOZMz2KUiMoefmDGQ6jU/cbmR1X/XvZITeN6fLa N9gakhO9ITMC8pkury6p4WSurzy Gnyy5pCbe9Dz2oKSgAqQcmiJSj3578uLT88a66qvMNMa2lDfT2 25Z7nDEHJHQcZh/e5kNiyiRoilAQlH1X3VvPjCJIXlI2bCpvf1VanvCS zejUGDdJl1f1QYQJOdE6mfjb/V1eORjp8prvVY67VHVn5XRvzROMh8xjhKbru7zqkOz4SYAvKDn foRSRaJ1M/E1dXu2KudyUVkGpGnLQFF1e1c8BUmsfOymP5nAXTr5h8q9qDgf V96X1hZX2d5AN/Aa9MZRmG8qSmuXVyKQ8rB9k55giLJ2Uh 3W1qiBrE2AFRVwXKhVnH4NAOBoxQ5sG3ap5iyv7H4ioScJysoq aVnlrt2K/X56fAYA4GDpFmnZgWffiC77erWh49iFcFDr 5IxOJ8LiXaR1RKhJCg1YQaSs/eynmBMWlAaECNmjivqjsmbmMfoRDVOjrFePa0/DrURgpI7KUOGTMrDwhOUvGX5XmUXWZXoC6m72PII5XHWuXFSHh PojIOUz8hqZN9Q0MRkQIV5nLGbNCmPbTH5Oa10jqFUf15CKYRS NoaSHWYSCGtO7qOdT9mxnurnAMXvCYRVv1fKYf4gImY/G6L3G9g4q4bWiEQdB81JeZg8auqzITw/pB5rZ3m1OVZUwPVHj2Hn1b NjmvsfAb2fzgf9YcOo76mBnW792H/4q/Q0NCg3q yClv7X4RIt7NRu30Xt y9Dz LXf4HVMt/uvsxrkisilRIM8Zu7X8RDhWuQ31NDeqPHEXt9l04uHJt6n54Bp MZiT6MgCW9D6w6rpLMiLH9IL9bB/neXlA87A3FJ0OIBBGwWeNZqiBBKSCTbvC6Y5Wo2boddQcPW30q GUdGXGfhgDU9EKw6LkNGxNiGkN tg3xvLyge9obikxlEgv6kh jYHRKUAqy4wStKNmiuW/g5f/bXZV8uUy2b9e672LP1h5SdF9F0ZEIiiQQDlnxn1qrjsmRCjO0I d06yPf2guJhbyg mUE4YJ JR1MNCUoBVtzgO8oj PHHH7F8cQGWzpmHzz7 GC 9 CLKysrw3arV2LPrJ/zn7XcQCoXw31mz8ObMmdi Zh0O7NyFLxctRmhOVHRuXLkKqxYvwScffIB58 Zh08pVKP7627T/HkIfSiTuh2JsDeR36yDf2wuKh72h BBOhwSlgHTf4Pv378eGbwtRtWcf5s2bh8IlS/H1F4vwxRdfYFdZBBVl5Vgybz6 nDsfcz//HN8u/wrl6zdgw7eF2PfDdnz ed4c ZMAMC H7ajrKwMdZVVWLBgATZt2oT58 en9fcQxqBE4n4oxtZAfrcO8r29oHjYG4oP4XRIUApw2g3 U2Sb1adAJIHTrjPCPBRjayC/Wwf53l5QPOwNxYdwOiQoBdANTqQDus7cD8XYGsjv1kG txcUD3tD8SGcDglKAXSDE mArjP3QzG2BvK7dZDv7QXFw95QfAinQ4JSAN3gRDqg68z9UIyt gfxuHeR7e0HxsDcUH8LpkKAUQDc4kQ7oOnM/FGNrIL9bB/neXlA87A3Fh3A6JCgF0A1OpAO6ztwPxdgayO/WQb63FxQPe0PxIZyOp6ysDGRkZGRkZGRkZGRkZGTut5QLypSX6 CKawuEEwULXmfuhGFsD d06yPf2guJhbyg hNMhQSkg2Ru8XadhZAaMiEKJxP1QjK2B/G4d5Ht7QfGwNxQfwumQoBRAgpIEZTqgROJ KMbWQH63DvK9vaB42BuKD F0SFAKIEFJgjIdUCJxPxRjayC/Wwf53l5QPOwNxYdwOiQoBZCgJEGZDiiRuB KsTWQ362DfG8vKB72huJDOB0SlALsJijHX bHc1NfROvjB1kuBklQpg5KJO6HYmwN5HfrIN/bC4qHvaH4EE6HBKWAdAvKNh2GoGefkejR 1TJOnY9Ge06DUPbjkOxsbQUxcXFmDw533IxSIIydVAicT8UY2s gv1sH d5eUDzsDcWHcDokKAWkW1D /fWZKC4uVti4X96Cdp2GoX2Xk6VlGzduROv2gy0XhCQoUwMlEvd DMbYG8rt1kO/tBcXD3lB8CKdDglJAOgVlzz4 lZiMC8q2HYeiy4kjFMt79T1Darls23Fok4m th2HwHfmeMk6dh1OgjLFUCJxPxRjayC/Wwf53l5QPOwNxYdwOiQoBaRTUPLEZHFxMQpXrcG3K1ejsHCNYv lXX4Xxj3/ G8uWhfHNN4X45z/fahJh2er4Qdiwfj2 LFiMZQULsXr1GrTpkJrWUSIKJRL3QzG2BvK7dZDv7QXFw95QfA inQ4JSQLoE5YQ77kVJSQnm/d8ALP9jH2msZHFxMTaWlmLZH/ri/btOQumGDdLykpISvPPOLIQeOBXL/9gHq1evxt8mTUlhy RQ6d/169ejcmou1j3aA4HHnsD8eSESlCmEEon7oRhbA/ndOsj39oLiYW8oPoTTsVRQRoJ Hy mPkRjFh5NmrSIShbtB2A4uJizJr2ICqn5qLuhVxkZzWThGNo0h WonJqL0kBP5PYeoGil/O6777D5qVNQOTW6z8bSUtz/xwBOzPXh htvx/U33o6W7QaqjtmmwxBcf Pt OXlN6rW5bTuhxkzXsXnn8/HXwKPIad1P4WgbNn6BMyfF8JpZ16I5m0G2FpQRuYWwDdxBcKaW 5QhMDEEXzAa53AwBN9EgU0pQkTadx CU0TrjWPrRBIOyO5RxgJh2Wbi9UyhCGiV6Qsk4hUJwq9az9YTT Fmax9T TcJdIkH4eXUTc256h7V1jDUxGCe9UgLiuIQDPvhVDpYd2x9k7q sIgn5j cKZfpdRmAfPJI9keYUp2KciH17Zes/0fJQqNgghT3NdKfKne5FfoX8ajve9iIp8eCflIWRyt1DQA0 Q3asU dNl8VCtp3jYDjY3qeoowGxuSk18RHW2fp5q9NF16nrFdmZydgy lZtDSDRGEw6qFjcLo70oW9e9Kzj yElPuAyNYJiijDpRdDFoPbhaSDkE5d858bN68GbUv5KoE5cJQC JVTe0mC8s4xPbHn2QE4OG0AFjzkw9q1CUF58ZCOePeJO/HO5N gpKQEM197FTNfexVr167D2qK1aN6mP1q2G4hweAXWr1 Pma 9in /ORPFxSVSt9ri4mJs3rQZ/37mj1j88Ei8N 1PUmtpXFD26NkPy5Z9hQ8/ AhbNm/GlVf67S0opxTAryH0wsEC KckBKWC3UXwTyxAcDev5KgQ9c/dx5QX0hGwfByX6MMBpiKPIOjniQJThSLgY8oIB8TCJZbUE/twytDYR6qjVb9FsTGCfk7SYsswUHc5LsaaGPCxYvOAMCnGHyzY 8uQJXJXMwwHDSdbRfo8JP0kQFubBM0lHPOjtw65HTOTIhIpc9K gEUGEeR/DwcbTvRUiC3KSgjAt9hf9iYlJaFv3bOychGykeNoOt/xGro SiMonclEpB2dTCUfPoBoRXJOiX cr4 ap8HF3ICOVUPItoHLupBaXopYSpYzeND4xgkaDk/ BI0N kQTNLUwvKkaePRXFxMdY8NhiVU5WCsqSkBD8 3V9azrNtk3oj8sQA1fKjU5R/f/DIJdi0aRO W/cdZk 6Dsem9kLVtOi6I8/1wqEpfVA9LRcDBg5G WTlMcOP VBSUiIJytBve6BqWi6qpuVi19N9UPxdCS6/6iYbC8oiBIM8YViGwJQiBINJCMp1KzSEY1RoBtaZO09nJXpeYm x8EuMlC 1KtpH7MCeqlSyiZflVYpFXT/Fb2RI4K8bacJO69tYI Pzw 3n jb9Jj65X i6aH K7qB9AjLeO2t/v0dYnXssjrzWL38KVoHSOV9WKJd Htz4qkOKiMypo4uej3D6EPBMiyv6 56EdDyDmj0keeKd7TQrKEPImeeGdzsSP19JZmCfzeabHw35wcw zzUjGZ3JQpglK5jVHxo/27kivPHNYJSui/WFeXlmmCUuPiCAdMPKw0PU0pKNt0GIK1RWvx6UcfKQRcXFB vqTagE5uS G92yDdyZEReSFJx2P9RN7ofaFXAw9sTVuPL2rtG31tF44kN9TE o6fTRyHuc9NkNYfm5IQlXEb0aMVKqfmoub5XJw3sA1qX8hF3fR cXHrBxVGh lwvVMXWx/dZ8ehQbN60CR26nGxbQRlZt0IlGiNzC Cfuy/aqpiUoNRqvTSPkxI9V1A0tneBRiuhuBJPptLU2IdX78QrcYO/TS/hOCnGmghbc1kSvub5JiHKeTHRFpSRoN9UzO3vdy0Bo26pAsCID TV6gpKLQUFZOserPh8B9vc9D5GgjIrC/ArEWhuNirlELHVjAbbsTI HQ1DkieQe6NMuKJmhH rzjffQ0R7moOi66g8iaER4yfOI4ZxipGcMc75STmd/B29ojR/BoNwfynNS5zA937Bdj8WCUCQoo705mf3ZLteMoDbqg1RjvxZKU 0q8aWlKQfnIw3/B vXrse ZqDB767ZeCkFZF sCe7W3PSqn5qJqWi9kZzVDdlYzVE3LxcFneyM7qxnWT yF unRfY481xOVU3Nx9 iO0rZn9 AmudzUT 9lyQCrzylg7T tjM7SMvP6ddCcQ5yi28z47oTkZPTAtederwkPgcNGow1q4vsKy hRhoCiRXEfglOigjApQcmOn TtbwLHJHpOVx8A/HGWht/mxSo61fa8ClBeyccTJ7Od8LiCF1mKeke2nRFBaSApOibGmmjFS WNrWYJM5sUA2 U1ut5c6yTgBL9rCRiN5XpChu3SyuniyhJtdUuUyXaxjIoWc61h gBN8z0PcQilhQlDKRaC oIweX9TlNbPi4QyUz67J5Kb0Ckr kDN1F131PAmJ pd9XpfGAZoaQ2n8RbRynKFWHlDnE3X YX6bJM60f5uyDLW4VW5v5Bw4v03Q5VU9FEg95EjUSqvlg1Rjnz GUkqJ3v6Bs23EwNmzYgAXP3iKJsrhoq3shF18/FG2BXP3widLybx7ojuysZnh/cnSfy0/pjOysZih75hTUT89Fi5xmsZbJaFm 089CSUkJNpaWIu/GPLRukYXKqbnY/VR0/bhLLsbG0lJs3rQJB57tjcqpuTi VbbUarn36R6YdnUXdG6bI53DgWej bm9sHsjz/C/md6Sue edMmGwvKqHCUuqLuLpLGVSYnKGOsW6GauIcdV2kEpyR6rUpPfS bEB ago0zdkBRkSa6TKrqEJ3JgPQEpaLyFQlK VvCtDwsWIiZVmhe9y/TLc3qSXkSrZOiCXuU2NPvzCQsjEXFTJKCEmAm3dEZcxkb16c8j noSmERrmGiCGCX29D0PI/FgMCooFa2/IkEpPwe23EyLh8NQjeNLJjc1/aQ8iTpW0KATr0 53Szl ZOXS43lfbZVMyLc2sDvU5RhrHVYneP5vyVejmJ7bk9K fYm5xkAK5a14pY4d1XZSbSQhwMuEpQA542D6b7CTUtTCcpvvvk Wa1Z jeqYeBuZ207RChi1aItk8 ZtUTk1F0V/ykWfvgNxID9XapG87bYJ2PxUVFC2a5kdFX3P9ER2VjOUyj49Ul xcjP8G/4HKqblY acBillki4uLsSN/sDRT7Ozn7sKh53Klc6uelosRPVpKYyjjs8l uSyM7ZNOlATlJpsLSsi6vca7uwKNFJQKEq2W7hxDabIbj8GuLH rjSnjnEK3YReJQ67gGBCVbB5np8trk42Osw3iczL6dNXhdRYLw q1o89fe1v99T20LJtjZKgoMnYmJiUrfbZEU vKoWNo0uuTLs73seqWyhFE wPDyKcQAAIABJREFUIy5b8CIgo Jhc2Ji0tCcAjo5MX0tlBrbRILwx3KfVn0viRmNvGioJS6eX MvZANh7d5POqhbRbVzgkq06bw01poYzoj4M9aaypybwt9aLyB4 PbfY1l7jPkg1tvoOpbmHy6anKQTlxWOvQXFxMb56MDr5zc4n yA7qxmuuW4C9jzVUxKUY4dFu6UuXx5G9Qu9UTU1F/4zOkW7tI7pKgm7uKDMzmqG2heirZ0tcpSC8fOJYzFn4iWK1tD4 unVr16FqWi9JUJaUlODKyy9HdlYzHIvNMFsSyJUEZbv2J2L vBAWLV7qLEEpdXtNdHcFUikoAUlUmuwC64hEb3acpKHtzY81SV TsoqQonrVVNIaS /kTzTEmRo/rkBhrYiJO3E 9iBKr8bep0Vhzxlc6euxqKsdQmhChRsUkoqIlWiZnPJ9AHNnf9 zxSKCjZz7MoTLSvWBxmVjxsDFdMAsnlJhsIStnLVP6zuKyuTkp Qco4rHy6T5LO/oe6mTP4x0gtJS1Can5hOX1hqT/TE76pqZCypER kGssEpdYgVytmJtIi1YKy1fGDsG7dd5j7/r8l4dipTY4kDuOCMvK3aOvknb 5C8XFxfhP/v3S9jXP5 KkE1pgzPBeWPTRW/ghf5gkKIv erK03YKP/4MvF3yGtX LLqt6Phd7n kdE4i9sXTex1g89xNsn9xb2uf03q1Q HAfPHb7pfh yxZsmBhd9/Hd/SVBeWKPvg4VlLFur3OLFJ8RMS8oxaJRszwBjkj0gt4D3CRiqLe BIPlxK3l1NxSuOBQc18wsr1rnwd3e1YKycTMHNrqFUtY6mTmCM plZXg0KSm43Vw1krWGZIWBSP4ZSUTrvsx qcgSCMuPiYVNU3VzZ1eZzU/oEpVVdXvliKN5qJjpn4fwqinNlf5uB8zTZ5TW5uV7EcREPJ1J/FkXcrdi4D1KNdS2UTPO/3SbkAVIvKF986TVs2rQJ9dOjAu6f/m7IzmqGb75dheLiYux5qqc0IU7LVu1QumFDopXx96cIPyGSndU Ma4vWqj4ZIl8fn9BHVEb1870Uy6qf7yV1x133aA 0anOCYwVlZG6Bapxj8rO8csZLJtWq6YxErz ttXq8iKFujHrfgJTVgqo6QrW/gW82mfoOpcY5anz7ytnCRkAjZ/FtrKBMtE6y5bmhy6uAJL5Dqdvl1cAkPXISrWGJv6mLJVInKDld ktUxVO5P8bAYI90zk8hNmTApDz HJ3qxaO8aOx/h2EXZeQom0JFa6xo5KY/idyquCfPf1NZ voo9W8jXcV5mmJ1EKO6DVGOvMZRWngyHVAvKTz79HH988M 44pQuuOKULsjOaobWx/dFcXEx1q9fjytO6YIT2jVXjXEsLi5GSUkJ vYbjFGDekj7yy07qxk2btyINUXrsOqh7miYkYuGGbnY9UQPSUy to/UbB4CYof7Smt3zixN84f1EEqY87sT1H0p6ioXHBff2nfK07pgn MGtEdu7wGYPy EFSu wYOX9JD2c4Kg5Am 5Lu8Rr85qZyUh/dtSn2ckOh1v8OkMwV5cq2Y tOWa0 frXdcI0kM2mKKndnWzZPyJNHqa3y9jijkToDg9El5TBBrTdSaI IbXYhn/VmLcVGP4jE4 w 1eS5PAANAUlHpjJPnrZT4VdYeleNgC0bAIZac7cW5iceJnQxTP 8AY/G8KO41O0AurU5zzfa886z4zVlMVBPZaT/WyI8rdqzhRrNPY6L2T1X9gzx1fNrM/ExqAPUo2txlDajVQLyjYdTkJxcTGuuPJGeE8bDe9po1H8nUw4f vcdvKeNxt2//YNKUMZt9uzPcfW1fml/uX2/ZQsefXQyVq9arfrsx6xZH F/S77EjBf/juVfhVXrpfMpLsann36mWPdFKITv1q2D97TRuOCiyzF/Xght2g/Cls2bpf3sOMurU8iMRB9GINk k448rpLMiLH9IL9bB/neXlA87A3FxyIa x1tQoIEpYCmmJTnhB5eTbHYGHv//Y/w7HMz0LbjUAw XysX78eJcUlKCkuwfdbtuDqa29Bmw5D0LbjUIwdfwO 37IFJcUlWF yHt9v2YJnn5sh2djx16OkJLrfxtJSnHfRtfjjg3 W1j/40ES06zQMPXqPVOxHgjI5MiKRhAPWjI 26rgMGRFjG0J tw7yvb2geNgbio9FkKBMGSQoBTTVZ0Nuv NeXYG44IvFaN9lKP744GOGBGXr9oMVx4j/3br9YNU6 Xr2/ w2bToMMS0USVCaIxMSSSQYsKTCtuq4LJkQYztCfrcO8r29oHjY G4qPRZCgTBkkKAU0laBs23EoZr75FlcYlm7YgLHj/QpB Plnc6X1q9cUobi4GEVFa6Vlv//Dn5pM9DWlEVEokbgfirE1kN tg3xvLyge9obiQzgdEpQCmkpQtus0DG06DMaqwlUKMfnZZ3Nxf Cd1i2Cr4wfhu /4LZMb1q9H245DLReHJCiThxKJ 6EYWwP53TrI9/aC4mFvKD6E0yFBKaApBWW7TsPQvdepWL9 PTZs2ICbbvmtcNvO3UbgsitvVpnXd5HlwpAEZeOgROJ KMbWQH63DvK9vaB42BuKD F0SFAKaGpBGW2pHIIWbQcY2nbYKRdi fIwli37CsuXhbFkydImHeNIgjI9UCJxPxRjayC/Wwf53l5QPOwNxYdwOiQoBaRDUJq1v/7tGam766gxV1guCklQNh5KJO6HYmwN5HfrIN/bC4qHvaH4EE6HBKUAOwrKdp2GYfHiJfjm668tF4QkKFMDJRL3Q zG2BvK7dZDv7QXFw95QfAinQ4JSgF0FpVuMiEKJxP1QjK2B/G4d5Ht7QfGwNxQfwumQoBRANziRDug6cz8UY2sgv1sH d5eUDzsDcWHcDqesrIykJGRkZGRkZGRkZGRkbnfUi4oU16ii2g KhxMEC11n7odibA3kd sg39sLioe9ofgQTocEpQC6wYl0QNeZ 6EYWwP53TrI9/aC4mFvKD6E0yFBKYBucCId0HXmfijG1kB tw7yvb2geNgbig/hdEhQCqAbnEgHdJ25H4qxNZDfrYN8by8oHvaG4kM4HRKUAugGJ 9IBXWfuh2JsDeR36yDf2wuKh72h BBOhwSlALrBiXRA15n7oRhbA/ndOsj39oLiYW8oPoTTIUEpwKob/OBX84R2rOQbS86LaBookbgfirE1kN tg3xvLyge9obiQzgdEpQCrLrBt946SGh7/vm4JedFNA2USNwPxdgayO/WQb63FxQPe0PxIZwOCUoBJCiJdECJxP1QjK2B/G4d5Ht7QfGwNxQfwumQoBRgpaAsv3kQds97V7n8dxeQoHQhlEj cD8XYGsjv1kG txcUD3tD8SGcDglKAVbd4KFzTkXoHC8JygyBEon7oRhbA/ndOsj39oLiYW8oPoTTsURQRoJ AJh3gr4fT74YuYPRtJ bnKsFZSnYsPfX1IsJ0FpnsjcAvgmhmRWgOBuzobrVjDbhRBYxy trBThXbowyBCaG4Auau27sn0jCCMjuS58voPZBOCBb7wPv9tYu T7vscEDnuMnUGbrnypyf8MeEEfD5oXdY 8eYh/E4qfYM DR9HAn6NcqUx092bH8QEUXpEQT9 j4HnOp3DqX5gCfP2Lb5XsDjiZkXKGU3CMnWe4C8kPZ6bz57IoC XV6Ya1/heRijogWdSwvIK9fcpneOV7eNFfoXWOqV558SdHEJefPn0fMb1 pcifrixTCzfGww6EA/y8w9aBernE7fFR UNVr6fkKAiw SYcNnWccEAv58cLVj576D8rpBL177QDaReU0sOEyhNRB0k3Zix YVjrMakG5/tUXFctJUJojHAzBN6VIWZnEhKNcLHKF4u4i CeG4J 7T7ndlAL42TKl4xXAP8VtgpK5LxG/h2WCIibQEvdqMpWd/nHCATYJJVFnsNuEA/ApBGFMyMgK0U4wcdHjVkHJQx0n1RZsnAzEhRvr2A4q/4cDhhO3K/xemh8TeAYEZb5XKSJL8xlRGVKLyDzB3 y6UB5HgPJxhe9lhIKMoKvIh1dHVEYFo0zwVeTDO0ksAKP75CHu 5VDQA08wpPo/AKAwT/m3ALfFww7ERZK6Powg6DfXKOLa MSFF1NnR30nfjHZ EP7TQtXI4Iyeu5s3o/GvKl/U wMMl1Qxp3th9 vDhgv8MlcDKmkqW7w76f9ERW/H6Np668fjPXXD8bWO0cqltOkPGaIthayrYxATGhKom8fglOUwj FOVEAmxGP872CQ18pZhsCUIgSDLhOU4QCnglRWZtwKOBwwde qxSIvITOVKOfc9OoM3rkqlmn XiZ5xFs5/X74M0hQquOk2oKb6IRJWiU4o7GP/62MaRgBEwnb8X6PtzZ6vQYEZSng9QD5TPNhvjchAkN5nHJCMtE ZKyMk21dqpQwZbyWFU30fbQ1Ui0T cpXAU1CK/OnylsbY0jle7X1UIjVaRvzv0jlemagNIU8mPPVwZjzsSuJlop8 rHM0/8LszPrHnfq4jROtSdPSmEJSql9CKI5p kZAcmS4oZQ Yug91cSJB NOi9vk01Q2 9dFrdWdypVleG0tUUPKEopKooDQiAiWBuW6FavvI3AL45 5jxKrBM3VcIpFXZhoVqJl7l1tBN4Wg1DhXWd3E318pcBR/R4KZIyiFiVRvVzMPFdqCMhL0Z9Bbf5nQ4wpB3vYyMSgtzkuIQo VAjCMXkQJBme9Vi1UBzvS9lqDU2FooKDXKKszjdF0F4uJRWZ62 oCyd41WJVRHOjIc9SQzbEuU/c3WlK Nj1g/McBS29TeeC4Ly7rOcXkuBMDu0QnYOOsfQE5SGu8Sy /DOJfHDlN1nNXpwJs43yAjKeIOd4BhpwJIxlOqApO6mTCVpEZS/u0Bt8XV3nsZdv2fmpCY5L7ehHD8pGPuoGD pMcYSMkGJMgQU5e1DcEp0v4wQlIyw0GyhNHTvar lZLtBqrraqrpf6nXH1HirJxemghZZbrkZIygb8zZZ4D N64Tt8hrd11zrJOAGv8cwJCgFLZTxfTVbKGX7sV1e80thtnUSc KrvzQjK6Lbaok7QQslrWSzMU42xBNRdXqPlmWudBJwaD7sjeEl pcnydK PDzacacHJpNOcnlqmHzLF5SZnjVS IDRxDLBjNtgzGzk92DuzxtIYMaf/GhHjU6iVmVe9OEpQCmlpQ7nj6Du56rTGUjeHQzz nrCxnEZsoR27cMZCxlkrFtkoRKu8CGw7KutPuLpLGVbpeUMbep CnuVVWFmOjernvv6tzjireM3ApS ebOyGRAQkHJGUMZP4eMFpRJ18XqhCpHf3yqj9M6KZqwR4nj/R7HkKCEegylNMFOnvJv TjIeLdaSYhyJuWRWidFE/YocY7vYy2DGpPj8MVlbB9uS6NsK3YMpTTBjloMard2qiflSbRO iibsUeKceDgJ/rOrSjQYeCHnyviYHPqigsk76pfK7DY6gtLAMcwLSrZ1UJaXuHl Tec1ov5AXvORWDBNp q7DRiFBKaDJBeXfbuCujwvK0tdfTsnxjhw6jPPOPd/0fnt2azTVORip1VJP9MVbLTljKCPx9bEy4t1dAZcLSo3B9QCYN 7J BMPG7l3tCp9TSbLCVdW6JRYvxgRlYrtE95Kw9riIDBGUyb3x1J ukwMTb3kgQftWQCf3xKk73u4RRQQkws7zmcfZlZnnND/FbNuOU5ifEo9R6qdEaKsOZvjfSQhkXoMZaCJUzueYhVJjH2ddE y2hFPrwx8ZgQofzWUDnOjIfdMTFmTqfXjivjY6aFMrETM7s4Iy hVeUieR4wKSu1jNLaFUnFMjd v22VaNm D/m G vlL/YPTgk0EZWaOodQTlOVv/0NadvjQIdxz92 xcP581NXVoaS4BNdfewO Dn NnTt24pWXX8PihYuxLRLBXx/7G5Z9uQxPTHoCr7z0Kv791tv4 MOP0VBfjycmP4mZ/5yJjz/6GLW1tfjzowH8 dEAAKC6uhqbN2zA3t17UFdbiy8WLMT2H7ajproa23/Yjl07dgIAdmz/EZs3bAAA1NfXY/OGDdLfB/bvx64dO7Fj 4/Y eMOHDzwM7aWlzeJH5NF//MfMdatUHSBVU7SE /2mujuCrhYUIrEJA9DiUSQjDX21xUTQoGnP4ZS48doJ5GMEJTJT DRgYMY7Ew8b4YDybazigcHpb/2lWVwFLX9mBCULd9ykonD 2Ms4eYLxlYIZXx3hexV6ws6cmOSWoJhYJwZXZGqcYTB fpzxlYIZX50ZD7tjom7UyRWujI9efpTnXtk4QuXM7SkUlAaO0d gxlEYEpZnnGEOCMrGjrLU0/cLSNoIyk2Z5NSood3z6lrTssvGXo6ysDI8 8iiqq6sxsP9JAIChg09GZWUlcnv2wT133YPKo0cxaMBg1NfV4c knnsKypcuwe cOXHj RXj9tdfx0AMPY9 e3bh07Hjc9Kub8XV4Bd59511MuO0OLF60GPX19Sj8diUA4IsFC 6Xjf7FgISLlEZSXlaPih2j/neXLlmPnjh2oqqzETz/ iJ92/ChtW19fjy8WLERVZRVWfvMtamtqmsKVmghF47oViXWMaFSwuwh TUEZ6/Y6t0jxGRFXCkpeN1fFavV9amzgukCoNYmgNPAyi7e/SPhkhKBs/LgR7lZG63dZ66QrBaURjApK9jMfbEui6jMiOmXLWyczXlAa6 aqKE3VjVUwrtJIubLWSRKUdoCfh3S7MXJwa3yMTsjGzQdMq25j u7waOUbjZnlljpGWLq/cs0jTbLNKbCMoVRM3uPg7lEYE5YLRXuye925i2fwQ vbuB IU9FQX4/cnn0wZvR5GNj/JBw4cAC5PftI2z70wMN47933MOLkU1BTU4Mjhw7jogsuxvhxv0 Q4vELa7tRTRuLcc8ZgzOjzMO4Xl2LPT7vxxYKFKC0pAaAWlABQ tGo1Fi1cjKLVa7D0f1 iqrISC79YhIJFBQpBKf93zeoiVFdVp8BzZoiNnVSNl2Q/ExIfO6kWn6w45H5GhJlJ1n2CUv 7g/rfdhTtJ25NTG2XVyPnyh/kr/n7M0FQmhx6oP9pEdl2Bir4ROskux91eeVvJxOM eznRmKiUBKCzIQ8LHlMy6Xru7xqo/oOpRGYiXa0JuQRzxar3E4udqnLq9WIJuVRf984I oqFoPfoVSJRak1MflJeVgxZuQYRvJS/Dy0xlKq5pNo0kl5OM9KFg0XtJGghKI5WnMSjDRipaBcf/1ghaC88froQ8EvLh6Ln3buwtDBwwAAr77yGmpraxWCEgDGjD4P F5x/EQBIgvLZZ57DG6/9HQBw12/uxvhxv8TWyFYcPXwE7779LorWFAEAvlq2HEBUEB76 YD0fwDYFtmKnw9EJ/jZub0C4a/CqK2pwY4ftgkFZW1tbbLuahThIDvRDv/blMoZYUMqoShtIxeoTAumdDwXCUrl1NvaU23r9eFP5o2tsvuGR hcOdjY9I13pmX3UVRE7hpI9qPwUM0BQ6sRJ3cLLv170vzOqcWy N7j40KQ84LZJQj6FUF8aModQQIfLPjfD2dc2kPAaIfR SO3GPTGTyhKFqDKWqcH0xCEDjcyM0KY 16A3bMP486 74CCaukaH vIZSiHM/G6JI4GxvmkSuUMyIKjiG4c C8HKdxn6N/2yI0n/qz4awY0KtaYyzRFA6BasE5dZbB F7/0kKQXnNVdfi8l9egTN8Z6KhoQFv/P0fGDTgJNx6y21YvvwrnOE7E7 4zfS9mf4zsTiRYsBAGMvGYszfGfiyKHDuPjCS3CG70wcPnwYR4 8cxdDBJ O0U304duwY1qxegxXhFdhcGk1Lm0tLsbqwEHt3/4RVhauwZ9dONDQ04Lu167Bo4WLU1NTg6JGjWPjFIuzbsxerCle hYtsP N S/ HQzwexqnAVdu/ciVWFq1CweEmT NINuDuRxAkjYEl3A6uOqyQzYmw/yO/WQb63FxQPe0Px0cfqYXCEGBKUAtLyHcq43TYYW28fiq0TTpaWy QXl0cNHAABVlZXYvXMHDh88KK07dvSo5rGqKqtw9PAR7N65Q7F 8z66dOHr4CGpkYxsP/fwzaqqrUVdXJx2vprpaOv7en35CTXW1Za2NbiUjEkk4YE2PA6u Oy5ARMbYh5HfrIN/bC4qHvaH46EOC0t6QoBSQVkHJMbmgnP3JbOzYvh379u7Dxg2l PjDj7Frx05sWL8BtTU1qK6qxs4dO7Fzx05UV1Wjvr4e4a/CWBFegcMHD2HltyuxoaQEBYsLsLaoCNVVVVi2dBnWrinCf2e9j 4aGBqwIr8C3K1bg4IED2LxxE9auKUJ5WRnWFq0FABR uxLF3xWjuqqqSfySqWRCIokEA5ZMZW3VcVkyIcZ2hPxuHeR7e0 HxsDcUH31IUNobEpQCmuoG3znjQex85g5dOxieL 2zunA19u7ejdKSEvy4bStWrSzEvj17sXnjRjQ0NKC2thabN27E 5o0bsa3se9TX1 PokSPYtGEDDh74GeVbtqDihwpEyspQU12Diq0R7NqxAz9EtqLq WCUAYEdFBTaUbMDhg4dw9PBhHDx4EDXVNdj54w7s3rkDW8u x96ffsKPFRVaP41IAkok7odibA3kd sg39sLioe9ofgQTocEpYDG3OD1dXWKv2tqajKmq2h9XR2qq6rR 0NAgLWtoaEB1VbQ7LaGEEon7oRhbA/ndOsj39oLiYW8oPoTTIUEpINkbvKGhAfX19YpldXV1ivGKcViR WV9fj5rqGlRXVXHFV319fbRFsiaxXwNzLOmYsrJramqk8uT7yt ez5yw/ptY58IRyXV2d6pzYv9P9XUo7Q4nE/VCMrYH8bh3ke3tB8bA3FB/C6ZCgFJDsDV5TU4O62ph4q61FQ0MD6mrrokKroQENDQ2oqqxCf V2dJPLqamsl0ScXW9VVVVKX1prqaqncqspK1NfXo662DrW1tai vr5fGTgKIidJq1TnE943/XVtTK62vqqxSCM 6ujqFsJX rq2TWh9ra2qlv PCMn6ceKskkBCl7HkSlEgyAYqxNZDfrYN8by8oHvaG4kM4HRKU ApK9wY8eScy6Wnn0mPT/6qpqVB49hoaGBlQeq5RmUAWg ltOXLzV1NRIYpBHVWVishz5zK/x/1dVRsdK1tfVS2XEz0l zgC4s7zK/5b/Jt5vBRIiUt4iymsdzXQokbgfirE1kN tg3xvLyge9obiQzgdEpQC6AYn0gFdZ 6HYmwN5HfrIN/bC4qHvaH4EE6HBKUAusGJdEDXmfuhGFsD d06yPf2guJhbyg hNMhQSmAbnAiHdB15n4oxtZAfrcO8r29oHjYG4oP4XQ8ZWVlIC MjIyMjIyMjIyMjI3O/pVxQprxEF9EUDicIFrrO3A/F2BrI79ZBvrcXFA97Q/EhnA4JSgF0gxPpgK4z90Mxtgbyu3WQ7 0FxcPeUHwIp0OCUgDd4EQ6oOvM/VCMrYH8bh3ke3tB8bA3FB/C6ZCgFEA3OJEO6DpzPxRjayC/Wwf53l5QPOwNxYdwOiQoBdANTqQDus7cD8XYGsjv1kG txcUD3tD8SGcDglKAXSDE mArjP3QzG2BvK7dZDv7QXFw95QfAinQ4JSAN3gRDqg68z9UIyt gfxuHeR7e0HxsDcUH8LpkKAUQDc4kQ7oOnM/FGNrIL9bB/neXlA87A3Fh3A6JCgFpOoGb2howJYtm1W2a9cu1ba87aLb7tRc V1tbyz3u1q0RxXai8kV24MABAEBNTbWp/b7/fktK/Od2KJG4H4qxNZDfrYN8by8oHvaG4kM4HRKUAlJ1g9fV1WHggN4 q69P7RMV2P/20C/369lRtd2L3zqiurkZur27ccvr366U65oED xXbXHD OQDA3V/PnnvuGQDAnj27k9r/P/95OyV dCuUSNwPxdgayO/WQb63FxQPe0PxIZwOCUoBTS0oBw7ojaKiNdJ2115zBXebE7t3B gCUl5dhQP9c7jZ33flrxTF7nNhFWtfjxC7Sct6 A/rnCk1PUMq31fqd /fvS4kv3QglEvdDMbYG8rt1kO/tBcXD3lB8CKdjkaAMI DzIxjhr40E/fAFwmk9Ix7pEJQnDeoLAKisPIbeud2FghIAJk58VLOstWuj4vS BP96vWL5r105pf95 P/64HTU11ZpWV1cHQFtQHjiwX9r297 7l7vNk09OSokvDbNuBXwTCxDcrbXBPgSnhOCbUoQIgMjcAvgmh hBYx9u2DIGJiW2jZYf4Ft/GBLZPJJEg/D4ffApj7t9wQLFe//aNIOhny/TBz1QK4YBsvT o8q1ifdz0Dq57rsy5peC4to8xlzACqrjHLQCRl1n/qFzDxEBdpuzYKv9HEPRr5w85zvQ7h4p8eCflIWR4Ww88MfPOKW U2CCFPtt4TZEuVrZ eD Xepcif7kV hf5puMb3ckJ5gMeTMCMBMbJPnmy9J48tILHOm8 sKwW8XoANMQdXxsMq2JzIyRHsNmxuY6H46MDNGQL/GyASDpvYL5qT4rksEvTLjqtcl6lYICjjDwr8B4JI0G/soTANpENQDhzQGwAQ PMjGDigN3r1PEEoKAFg2NCBmmXt3bsH/fv1kv7 wx/uU zLbt87tzt27/7J0O/QEpRHjhyWtrnxhmu42/ztrxMb6UWTxASlf8oK7oNvZG4B/FMKFAIwHAzBN1G9fVRsypavW8HdjhWpRrF9IgkHxAIiVtEnblk jlav NuGAMlGEA2y9EBV eolaQSzJS8WEA6q6SHncmLhs5HFtH2PDROMm u1s3FQ B5uMNcqI7aCKezhgOD 4wu SQDQgKAvz4JnkQV6hcl/p77hYlInIUFD7b3YdCvM4ApSPK3wvpzRfKQhDeYBHR8zp7lMKe BmhmMf5Oy k/n 8vLwMjYdVcOozVZ3H1pOcfVgoPjpoPofEcrRJUamXg5oNf4FgA AAc20lEQVR6fzeSXkEZf8Pg98OvEpTxVgE//KoHOGtItaD8179mcsXWqd5h6NmjKwYO6I1XXnlRV1ACEI6njP8/t1c31X68fUYMH4xTRgzB0CEDcfKwQRgxfDCGDO6PEcMH/397ZxssR1Xm8ST36i7rau0Ht1YIIW9aWyUrd9dbW2rtsluubrm 1pUJe7h0mk5CgRCtoBBMgTtQQUbx4ESMxWCiQQVwUWYGY3M3wk hsWw0Q2L3UJCncR4lhG1ApGi5dNlBD 6Gne/q89OnuuTNzTvf8f1X9YWa6z l5nu4 /e/nOU9j fJSsG2UoJw7Z2awRAndF154vi22TExD9FXGxjVRx2OojHq/ieKvEYmshPx dAJFOXIZKSj99U2RURXXB5I0N/ hL80X23pFcw0QGlCzGOoVFDVRrDSXCt1/Efdf06ayr n7dd3HSVFvnJQ1tLaRjxHtMRPgjQXRT4LN0dEw7tvdE3hNwScy uWPAizJuGkggKCcxskmNOAqicH9B004VhY1 1NFrw9 fyR0DoShlFYWkUVJkwfYpGRlQI4SywEu7jU6UTo6EvmsIzqquv aommhlN7vxhCe14KI0RunXixlH6JwbTg 3Y wndJhSU7aaLgjJ0k6BzfugG1Hyz0T3aLSifeeZp4zzDeXPPxJ4 9DycSlPX6zzD7rNMj25o/bxaOHPmFsp0pUqpbCoVFwbZpi/LMnzcLs886HXv3PtIWO6bCF31HJ1CUI4aH9mKwctiLPOp CwRkI JYkY4Dk6CMTbVVcX0gSXLzr0SsFPGnNBqbNql2JV032jSIpBaU LfTruo8ToYnmJt80bOO4CG 0oKxXijmLDJsEZUjoaYVgmrY8RIEYfBsSkdGCcnLHgCZ9Nhr3b Z STghK3e8CBkE5MgCM9LA/XEIaE7RjZsyYSP/EYLpn0I5N8rSa5rZBJqSULalOZYl kGxKefX9b56yI04pKVYqmU btTOHMuaGLM CcuutN0cKsPKnrkgsKAHg utHI9tasWKpdhvduhdfvAKrP75Ku2z52g3BtmkF5cGDhjubThO IvmOojIoCr1bxBKNWUDZ HxydQD1KOMalvMoCNAa3BxLdXEdNiqguQhk3Tzpm/qR2P TUx7TzJ XUowTpS0pUroV 3fZxEnSpv0mR02R1czPFGwU55dXbNl10EsiC3eNFIIBkgvLICA Y2DmDkiDhHUhCBkRHK5npyyqv3fbroJJAF26dETl VP7eyjS8uRwai51DKKa8jnj/SRCeBHPrDIbzxzL82mR6yRo J9E8McSmvwtikTs0QfaQ XFYfNsuptCkFpWYaUHN/5H1u3mc5IH1ahoLSQCcEJQBt8Z15c8/E8ePHUwlKAJgz wxlffl1JGHkdefMPmPKcyj37HlYG3n1Cw5ZIST66mPjKI75VWY Poxz6Xj/fsZH6GlWkx1SUJ6WYBFwfSBo3/4qQC52/yhzKZvq68RzXpK/qRGXzKZ/YnjdAhL9LKHqEYgn6fRSeLErttdKv2z5OQAtR2caG6vyWhv1Ng 72uKE8zOmkq2CPipt0bqakb9YtWXCYWlNJcy8Z3TVGpzqEM0mr ldUJFeZrRSVPBHhE3bT9FfEE4bVr8/Mkk2/jFeMKRxoIsKjVFeYLopKlgj0gu/eECEeMfBWWbMRXlSTTlRvRLkpRVk2iMFZSmTCidOE4wz9Z1KCg NdEpQfvKy1Yr4Gnz7OQDQFkEZfk2IjE5Q7tnzQ zb9ygef/wxTEwcxIED /DEEz/GgQP7MDFxMKgSayrKs3jRedrf/uXd/9gWG6YmHEUMp7020l0Bk6A0/6ZGKFsrxuOTvYEkLlpYRKXWYjqqKQKV5IKbKDKqES5SyqsqdmL S0y/2fOxSGvzRfwHC0miijHFfuoVFJUpEfHFkdy3eycilOLXnmAMby tHMKsY2aSrBhtqtyEem9HLSfM2yILtUzIyoBd6cSmvpm20KbNV VWSGmRxpisdg 0ZqrCEFNnf cIHGuCdegygoO4IiwqKL8egyoORMqMgxTRaurQpK6UYl/J2 7 xXiqWgNNApQXny5EmlgM3993uDSrcFZZIl7j2UfpVXXYXaN88/C/fee3db7JgKQfQ10179dFegnYISUF4tkoIsDiSx52grcyQTbBPb r/HaEnHBDvWrv9AnqOqa65uFFqrpphKT8X3Uyr7fNPMrMx0Z7ryg jN/WvA/VimF paHiq/u2j0CIKPqRv6o vbVaMKSeJthGKyhjxGHBb1Mzv9IgbjPrD1fRikn/J86hbDva 4PGA2FdNDBV9DEsQqOKK1FQxkFBaaCdgnLunJmBoASARQs/iHlzz8S8uWdi7pyZwfe oPR/mz9vllFQzp0zE/PnzQrWnT9vllFQhtcN9yF/F96H6667FoAnKHXb ILy2LFjyv74bT3/vJ0qr0GG tg4imMTQbqr/137BCWCVNhmem0ynB5ItOdqfOpIK4V8hHYirhHG10l4XxpETHs EZfp HfdxLGkHupgy7oYbA20foegkBaUJUfAF34YL8ehEp6ntUHSyZw Sllg4JympBk6oasR0gRicpKO2hpLmKsMprB4gaYzXCPjbbCbI/9PckojBtn6Bkyms76TFBSSwgiz5/3mNojmPbBSUQ S5LE24fZ2p6q3KxTvBuR6XVuDZ0okQ7d1OtwmaKpLUl5bWFft3 2cQwp508mfbVI2F6mbZrRydC6uUl5TUgiQalZT5lDKb9aRCzII 9OMTjY/M XVpw0pr7popDKHEuJvVekzU167S6Ibf76Hsu0YHtpG1WQQdIT2 PkUspKTe53RIUCr9sShP61BQkk6jiD4vJTVcZKcTgtJ/b2Wa1Ff3j7Po8tsB8hzKuvxzVHGbZrvqKS/3q7lmSPMdtE8YY/pVBYlchTTu/8ang7rvYwMx0VfBxkLBI2nRvPg7uqR6qG9TufVMFuVpgQhBKbx jUlg3osqrt1V0FVi5HaXwTo8X5RGqsWoEnC6FNW4bXwxGVXn1M UUzWZSna6ivlogYw6RrYa7HiG4Q x7KmDFGucdo/u59rxmThIfH7RSUan98bUjO4QlOukFvHGc1lK1cKW31K9IbPnY P2t0etL1b0B9uQ//0OjWUW3zPsytQUBrgCU66QU8cZ7VyyqIuGe9Xoid87CC0uz1oe 7egP9yG/ukhNNOCkhQSch0KSgM8wUk36IXjrF4pW3nyZqtfmV7wsYvQ7va g7d2C/nAb qe3UF5tknExCVBQGmlnldeBc97a08uHP7S8LbbMIxxI8g99bAf a3R60vVvQH25D/5CsQ0FpoN3vofRfxXHWrDcFr9Pwl9lnna68m3LunJnKeyZ128 fN0u7/ZzZZyjbz50zE7PPOh3z583q2j7NmX0GVq5c0RZb5hEOJPmHPrY D7W4P2t4t6A 3oX9I1qGgNMATnHQDHmf5hz62A 1uD9reLegPt6F/SNahoDTAE5x0Ax5n Yc tgPtbg/a3i3oD7ehf0jWoaA0wBOcdAMeZ/mHPrYD7W4P2t4t6A 3oX9I1qGgNMATnHQDHmf5hz62A 1uD9reLegPt6F/SNahoDTAE5x0Ax5n Yc tgPtbg/a3i3oD7ehf0jWoaA0wBOcdAMeZ/mHPrYD7W4P2t4t6A 3oX9I1pl2 PBhcOHChQsXLly4cOHChQuX/C9tF5RtbzFHdMLghMjwOMs/9LEdaHd70PZuQX 4Df1Dsg4FpYFWT/BS/zCXBAvx4ECSf hjO9Du9qDt3YL cBv6h2QdCkoDFJQUlN2AA0n oY/tQLvbg7Z3C/rDbegfknUoKA3kSVCunrcKa85ejVL/MDacW7a PxSUTTiQ5B/62A60uz1oe7egP9yG/iFZh4LSQFYF5dD087F4 nm46aM3Yvetu7B4 nl44qGf4MNvvBBrzvkECv0LMfTa83HfjTspKB2AA0n oY/tQLvbg7Z3C/rDbegfknUoKA1kUVAufX0Bjz/4GCqX3YqHv/UQPvevn8WqmRdj1ZkrseacT Di01fgSwuuwdLXFXDzJTdhyWlDuGPd7RSUFuFAkn/oYzvQ7vag7d2C/nAb odkHQpKA1kSlGvfein2fu8RlPqHsWXZV/GZd30Ke 54OHIf//eRSVz592vwtaVfxYPfuB Xnf1xFGYsDNobnrGAgrJLcCDJP/SxHWh3e9D2bkF/uA39Q7IOBaWBrAjKiZ0HseTPh/DLJ4/gQ3 1DL/9xXOJ9/Xgjv3YVPgy1r1jLSZ2HkSpfxhfv hreKgyTkHZJTiQ5B/62A60uz1oe7egP9yG/iFZh4LSgOuCsti3GKX YRw 8Az 8/Pfw52f U5L /urp57Fqtkr8cV/vxoX9C3q2v4TDw4k Yc tgPtbg/a3i3oD7ehf0jWoaA04LKgXNI3hLGvbEfxNYtR7FuM mM/m9J//fHux3HogQk8/T8/7ZqoJB4cSPIPfWwH2t0etL1b0B9uQ/ QrENBacB1QVm7cw/23fsoDoztD/o 9copHH/hOI4/fxyvvHxS2beX//Ayjj9/HMdfOI5XT70q/HbhaUWse8daDL32fArKLsKBJP/Qx3ag3e1B27sF/eE29A/JOlYEZb1SxGC5pv9 cDBYipV693cuhMuCsnbnI7j8by7DF99/ddDvzhvGUOhbiCV9Q8Fy4Af7gt8/efZq4bfiaxbjd88eC37/1VPPYs9/PIwHbrovf4Ly0F4Mrq9icHQCde0Kh1FeX/XWWV/F4Pq9qCnbj6NyNKqDY6iMmtqPxvmBpF5BMXReeksR4dOzpXO3V o5sr7ECykKfZchXjan3OwjlUiT9ru1bsklcv877WItsf7MvxE2 nauNQ38WKdE7VUSnqjheVbNrdZxIYmAZMk5aRSfNm1YK4flWzT iHcZkFuoPnbwIhmnwaAmF0Asm57ACMDQEFnPACTIxq7yVRV32l tLvlZ6ZP cJlaOeL6L40RmltegUT 0V43E16T20CtPKi9d49CHp DJUUbeUawjzLOqdTKUb5P2UaH7N91QRkYUPpD3vfqDYVNUemqo Cz2LcZzPz KJX8yhFOvnAIAnHjxBJb0DWFo vm4 j0bsGX5DUEk88RLJ7Drmw g1O9Vb73xos1Y/eZVKPUPo9C/UNj3j735o7h 0WgwPzMvgrJWqWJwdBzF9VWUD8m/emKyONYU1/WxcVFUNgRlcXSv9qJdHxtHcXQ8n4KyVjYOVi2du7WyKCKVPtQ2 5H5a6rcxyAeXH3k//HaNF2apH7lNDc77ODHdsXF40FMGwFo58YCYbbtXowVhFJMj4jb VAjAtLDga4iUsTAqaz76oKUgCp1qIFlkSmbb9yECEuEPTxrGCU kdVeijQ8EfQT Nz KEB/eEs/g2 cj2Ur4H1Corah6ZNkgvKzgvH6O5bEJTKdb7xsLDXRaXgyzoqxZ R6J8Expe82F4LSM9jgYBHFovyH9MaMv7HrLK4Kyh/dVcOSviF8/t uCvp89dVXcfsVt HFYy8G343f8iBK/cN44Kb7cOLFE7jnmu/j1MlXgt8/8qaLUOofxu9//bvgu8 997MozFiIi96wNEeC0hOM5UONKGJF8uuhvWpEMthGXKcyNq4Rp MdQGfV y6OgNJ HrZ276lNdrx1RhMgDpzcQeeu01q/ud/kCG3vB1exbXL u zgptXL8U1Cd/dLZWDwWRNvWUE5xQ5Vpu0 OSGIwASMDahQrLEIUgSn30xA0VV171VQiKpu296OFA5LQa ALzYGB1gSlLN51kc5qIbROr/vDVfwMCu9 VjsOaa6BJsHQO4LS/r29C8g2SC30elpQ1sqB8ZL IdsHnauC8nuf/Q5uXL4Z9QlzIZ5n9j NUv8wtl17j/b39e 8AqX Yfz2SPM1I9uv24YN/7we93zh 7kRlOFooxJ5jEQvKGtHJ1CUReOhvRisHPbazqGgbOUClP7cTfK ELiwoW s3XlAm2I9eFZSaSKNKhP1C1/94G0cLynqlmOopbqbtXi2kFy1xglL3u4BBwIwMxKfbhsik7cNi To4GotoU3q34RifmI9fz2 5xfzhKUzAmjyzFjaPtFpRieqTmui1PZdHsm9BGsYJKJwWlYX 0tlMElR 00qcAe4K Ekyl8JtT00hlW4lTP/w2xN0x9x1hnGYUO0GWk3573Xgcb4fBcgWV4mCKzpJhZQ5lshvU hlEshsVdFZSlfi/tVccvnzyC7ddtw1cL1 ML7/2cUVAunn4eCjMWBmmzAHBg 76u7H/3BKUclZSEYhTynMkginkMlVFxLmWt4rWXT0EpX5yi5jtqtkk91 yLJvDxT3wn61aYihS/kunmD khp8yYiPg3UbR8nIalPI0S/cCMUb2M55dWzbbroJJBxu/vRsDTzJ WUV/mzL5KEtiVhJKdYjkwibTQMyLjtAY2gDJFaUMqprVHIKbGgP5wm oaBM8DCufYKyca0OCTZvfJWnmGjGvdCFWz/FpF0pr5ItFPtI403stIn4KTKecIybeiHbTh73mvdDsu1MfRvtk 3COrWZjjaBU/ej9b9kOLfSXAGcFpWwEG7gqKG 79FYsmPZ pd/yu7yI4/CMBcL6OkG5Zak3x/LaD1wjfH/ogcew4dz1WDDt/fkQlEcnUFyvCkCj8Ds6gaI0pzKcFlsfGw/9dhjlcPQzd4JSM98hZnBMde6GigwkmZdnWidxv8KTUOl/aPrRDw6iKGpLwQWXSZxek0BQJrKxWpSnGZ00FewRybTdC7LY04 gNHcEcv2lqRKygEaZR/YSLwATRMFOBGJFM2x5or6CMTV8OF ZJUCSpF/3hJDGCMjzWxAwSUyvKE7o2a6/V4n5q78E1D/20Ubh2FOWR2tamAwv/Q7az9FnIgDH85wRZU4LI1Al4XY2AmL4j 5lKQSWdn2OnCuUl5TVE3B/SPUmwgauC0heNYQ5s349S/zC 8L6NwXdRKa 7t 5CqX8YS1 nDogHd zHkr6h3EQotSLPVLG1ISaN8yzDaa NdNfIvhKQvYE emBp/dw1DFb oNyGa0akcDFeYKUnkFFPU3Oc8po8hTlJhDJ6O ONmTJlIn7QzrrdFUZi5u4pv1fF4jJakRQjVCdHNGmgmuIxEpm3 fTsFZWyqsdy2QXz2qj cJGXK61THiCQRyoh14tN0Q5HDiAeI7ZpDKY7XuiwoVSgLbUn7Z xKuRhHd3CFxu9BDzKiiQsKUjJi 9f35 9 4BylWUE9TjFTjI5O9w3boVLFT5wSlK2IScFdQ7t66C48/eAg/3vV40Oc17/PSW3/11LPBd08 /ARK/cO4a OdwXcPfvN r4Lr6/WCrvKJW3DHutux 5ZdORCU8qtAxEWIQALRYhKQCvc00179dFeglwSlofDKVM5dw9P A9jyAalXshAfgiME4JoKXRR83SVOBLskcyvR91MpiMSZhMJ/qvCTbCBHFmEiTUchEVIUNb6MVSTFipOC3qZnPZ0jhdNr2wmtTD K9WaYugjBd7qdbPoz8yS4prYzvGiCkIytgHceH967CgFMfihCI qtE/ydb/VYnFNMagXrkkEZdLIZ6hX1f5C1lTCaGViQalGantCULqQ5hrGV UFZ6vdeB/LJt60O rxvy06U odx/YIv4fgLx/HCc89jw7nrUer35lue/MPLuPo9G1DqH8bi6efhro134tdP/xq/OfwbbFl Q9DOJXNXYtMFX8alb/lY9gWlIRJZq0jvmtSluSptNdf30l4ngnRX/7vcCcoE6TNA2nPXIDrCbbQzzdVbO15QtlhdNt CMr4YkrB2XJXXBGk5AqHoZC4FpZYIUWGMdCUQlEIF0ZjtADEa1 msCpm2C0mBfbTsGQdnL/nAS/XiQrIiMSNsEpWspr7GCMmm7/n9Qi IkmbOo/meD71KkvCadLyn3q7d/CrHHlFeP6CcF7ohJwG1B dNHn8L9W3bixEsngn4Lr10krFOYsRAfPn25IkTllNYlfUMAvFe P3HHF7Vj9llVd Q dplaJiDYCDYHoRxfV91Dq15ffSym2n0tBqbn4xb8PMkGrcpGAF grdtN6vKeVV7Vd5AtlrKa9py5PHvocygY1DNKOToXV7IeVVTl VC wk2UZOeY16z2GUOCpI/fVSimW7BKVx/qTsH5jTmnvZH05iejgavm7Fi6beKcqj V7Zn4jxPUhNjahpIDYgjENRglL9z60V5TH1rRAxJiaqJyH0waI 8Gsfqqv5NYbJqm3BZUD753z/B8IwFKMxYKPT9o7tqWPd3a3HXVd8Nvrvrqu/i8rddhh3X/yD47rmfH8Utl3wDV797A0686InS26 4Dev/4Ur8/FA9 4KyEXGMrubarP7qvUokJi1WeVelWi02n4ISUOc4RBRPMZy75nQ T9SIaPy hM/1q/5NO6MhzLtpRcMFVYm5iop92N 2jmieBjf12ol6MbdquQabtDqiVXmV9oxM98jaKyAgXgDGISVM0 sxeKwLQiKHXbxIrPqugv iNDGB5qdWKM6PJrQ4SxUnltSNrCMynHVO3/NNU8UO8J9A8iDdsUK6jHij3da0PMfWuJOD4SPyjna0OyhcuCst i3GD/90VPYvXUXNpc2Tfm/vnrqFEqvH8a2a /OVVGeLNAbA30NZSuvALLVr0hv Ng9aHd70PZuQX 4TSb9U6 g7ELBk66iee0JAUBBacRlQVnqH8bn33cVFk77AG792Dex8dzPT Om/lt4wjP/atANrBy7t2v4Tj0wOJGmplTs2EdzJfiV6wscOQrvbg7Z3C/rDbbLon3ql2JHUSWfQvCItfRGe3oGC0oDrgrLUP4xvr70NF/5ZESvfuAJXvn0NXvr9S6n3d/Vfr8K2kbsxNP18lE7r3r4TjywOJGmpV8pWnujZ6lemF3zsIrS7 PWh7t6A/3CaL/qmV3ap70gmUtF2KyUgoKA1kQVD6y ZlX8El8z C0Q9 EevesRb/l0BY1u58BJ9 5zpsWXYD7lh3O648Z01X95l4ZHEgIemgj 1Au9uDtncL sNt6B SdSgoDWRJUF70xmVY aYV2HbtPfjQX16Ib19 G5acNoRNxevwyHd iEMPPIaDYwewe suXLf4Wlx4WhHfWrMVN67YjEe/v9fKPhMPDiT5hz62A 1uD9reLegPt6F/SNahoDSQJUHpL1f906dx0V8sw9hXtqPYtxgP3TqOzaVNeKgyjm f2P41Vcy5GdfMYFvV9ENtHt6HUP4xlf3oBBaVFOJDkH/rYDrS7PWh7t6A/3Ib IVmHgtJAFgVleLlgxiLsueOHuPxvL8O9I3djYudBlPqHsXX1zd 7vfYus7RsFZRMOJPmHPrYD7W4P2t4t6A 3oX9I1qGgNJB1Qen6Qjw4kOQf tgOtLs9aHu3oD/chv4hWYeC0gAFJQVlN BAkn/oYzvQ7vag7d2C/nAb odkHQpKAxSUFJTdgANJ/qGP7UC724O2dwv6w23oH5J1KCgN8AQn3YDHWf6hj 1Au9uDtncL sNt6B SdaYdPnwYXLhw4cKFCxcuXLhw4cIl/0vbBWXbW8wRnTA4ITI8zvIPfWwH2t0etL1b0B9uQ/ QrENBaYAnOOkGPM7yD31sB9rdHrS9W9AfbkP/kKxDQWmAJzjpBjzO8g99bAfa3R60vVvQH25D/5CsQ0FpgCc46QY8zvIPfWwH2t0etL1b0B9uQ/ QrENBaYAnOOkGPM7yD31sB9rdHrS9W9AfbkP/kKxDQWmAJzjpBjzO8g99bAfa3R60vVvQH25D/5CsQ0FpgCc46QY8zvIPfWwH2t0etL1b0B9uQ/ QrENBaYAnOOkGPM7yD31sB9rdHrS9W9AfbkP/kKxDQWmgXSf4qT/ EadePtmWtkj 4ECSf hjO9Du9qDt3YL cBv6h2Sd/wdhmPacG2LY wAAAABJRU5ErkJggg==


Excerpt UBS "December data suggests A2M's daigou reactivation plan has started…

Our Buy rating is underpinned by a meaningful recovery in indirect IF sales via daigou channel in the next 18 months, plus substantial medium-term China infant formula (IF) share gains through MBS store rollout, and free trade zone expansion with associated CBEC activity. We believe A2M's plan to reactivate its daigou channel is logical, and centres on moderating English-label (A2 Platinum) supply to reduce in channel inventory, and support a China retail price recovery and lift online reseller margins. UBS Evidence Lab data suggests A2M has made its first step along this journey in December, which is consistent with peers seeing a lift in corporate daigou activity"

[Balance]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/what-to-expect-this-earnings-season/T2FKB2RWW7U5WDN3XAYI5D5IMY/

paywalled

What to expect this earnings season when NZX companies report next week?

"Allbon said stocks which were difficult to forecast at the moment were A2 Milk and the power companies.

He said A2 had already given guidance in December of its financials but it was more about how the company was going in rebooting its Daigou market."

No guts to make a call, no glory!

[Balance]

Certainly does not look like shorts increasing since 1st Feb but reducing by 10.77% course these run 4 days behind so be interesting to see if trend continues. Shortmans chart also shows a decrease in shorts. Maybe not all shorts believe result all bad. Course new Unknown CEO strategy may see a BB at these levels a positive and not long before we find out future plans. Everyone can play this game short or long ....your call !!

Latest UBS TP range $10 - $23.50 suggests everything already built in risk/reward low.



https://www.shortman.com.au/stock?q=A2M

Short coverings continue - providing short term price support.

[sb9]

https://www.shortman.com.au/stock?q=A2M

Short coverings continue - providing short term price support.

Perhaps getting ready for another attack depending on HY report.

[Baa_Baa]

https://www.shortman.com.au/stock?q=A2M

Short coverings continue - providing short term price support.

Chart is looking promising (https://invst.ly/tr88o), setup for the announce soon, with modest volumes showing a change in trend from pure down to a triple bottom on rising lows, albeit lower highs, undemanding indicators. A classic short term indecision wedge that will break up or down depending on where the results finish against revised guidance. It's all about the numbers now, chart says if you're in for a punt, now is a good time (with tight stops), if you're risk averse just wait.

glta

[RupertBear]

Chart is looking promising (https://invst.ly/tr88o), setup for the announce soon, with modest volumes showing a change in trend from pure down to a triple bottom on rising lows, albeit lower highs, undemanding indicators. A classic short term indecision wedge that will break up or down depending on where the results finish against revised guidance. It's all about the numbers now, chart says if you're in for a punt, now is a good time (with tight stops), if you're risk averse just wait.

glta

Thanks for your insights Baa Baa much appreciated :)

[Balance]

Chart is looking promising (https://invst.ly/tr88o), setup for the announce soon, with modest volumes showing a change in trend from pure down to a triple bottom on rising lows, albeit lower highs, undemanding indicators. A classic short term indecision wedge that will break up or down depending on where the results finish against revised guidance. It's all about the numbers now, chart says if you're in for a punt, now is a good time (with tight stops), if you're risk averse just wait.

glta

Third downgrade in the offing - the charts did not pick up the last two downgrades?

[Baa_Baa]

Third downgrade in the offing - the charts did not pick up the last two downgrades?

No they didn’t, as you know charts are hindsight but an insight into sentiment.

There’s no guarantee of anything, we all make our own calls. I’m happy to have a modest position here with reserves to leap into a good result, or wait until a good result.

You haven’t disclosed your position

[Balance]

No they didn’t, as you know charts are hindsight but an insight into sentiment.

There’s no guarantee of anything, we all make our own calls. I’m happy to have a modest position here with reserves to leap into a good result, or wait until a good result.

You haven’t disclosed your position

Been there, done that and pleased I got out before the two downgrades.

Still believe that ATM is one of the great success stories of NZ so on my watch list. Not a believer in buying anything on the way down, especially with a potential third downgrade in the offing. Happy to invest on the way up and pay more if appropriate.

[bull....]

We posted some time ago on this thread a scientific report into how covid would slash birth rates. now evidence is emerging that reinforces the report

China population: tumbling regional birth rates signal scale of country’s ageing crisis


Population data released by some Chinese provinces and cities has shown dramatic declines in the number of newborns in 2020 compared to a year earlier

https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3120236/china-population-tumbling-regional-birth-rates-signal-scale

[Balance]

https://www.fool.com.au/2021/02/08/what-to-expect-from-the-a2-milk-asxa2m-half-year-result/

"Finally, on the bottom line, Goldman expects this to lead to a 36.7% decline in underlying net profit after tax to $119.1 million.

Goldman Sachs will also be paying close attention to its guidance for the full year. The broker is forecasting revenue of NZ$1,478.7 million and EBITDA of NZ$393.9 million for the 12 months. This will be a 14.6% and 28.4% decline, respectively, year on year."

Guess all will be revealed on 25 Feb.

[BlackPeter]

https://www.fool.com.au/2021/02/08/what-to-expect-from-the-a2-milk-asxa2m-half-year-result/

"Finally, on the bottom line, Goldman expects this to lead to a 36.7% decline in underlying net profit after tax to $119.1 million.

Goldman Sachs will also be paying close attention to its guidance for the full year. The broker is forecasting revenue of NZ$1,478.7 million and EBITDA of NZ$393.9 million for the 12 months. This will be a 14.6% and 28.4% decline, respectively, year on year."

Guess all will be revealed on 25 Feb.

To be frank - analysts forecasts are in average not better than random (flip a coin) ... and the fool is in my experience not even one of the better coin flippers:);

But still - these forecasts don't look flash, and in the short term they might even be right ... there is no reason to assume the Daigou channel worked particularly well over the last half year ...

[Sideshow Bob]

https://www.fool.com.au/2021/02/08/what-to-expect-from-the-a2-milk-asxa2m-half-year-result/

"Finally, on the bottom line, Goldman expects this to lead to a 36.7% decline in underlying net profit after tax to $119.1 million.

Goldman Sachs will also be paying close attention to its guidance for the full year. The broker is forecasting revenue of NZ$1,478.7 million and EBITDA of NZ$393.9 million for the 12 months. This will be a 14.6% and 28.4% decline, respectively, year on year."

Guess all will be revealed on 25 Feb.

GS and TMF are hardly pushing the boat out......the turnover figures and profit/margin figures are in the area that the company updated a week before Christmas, for the half-year which finished 13 days after the announcement.......

[Balance]

To be frank - analysts forecasts are in average not better than random (flip a coin) ... and the fool is in my experience not even one of the better coin flippers:);

But still - these forecasts don't look flash, and in the short term they might even be right ... there is no reason to assume the Daigou channel worked particularly well over the last half year ...

Fool is simply summarising the brokers’ views out there - they then impose their own view on the brokers’ views.

[Baa_Baa]

[snip] ... there is no reason to assume the Daigou channel worked particularly well over the last half year ...

There was some encouraging information on the Daigou channel performance from the BUB's announcement (on ASX). It will be interesting to see whether ATM have a similar experience.

12294

[winner69]

There was some encouraging information on the Daigou channel performance from the BUB's announcement (on ASX). It will be interesting to see whether ATM have a similar experience.

12294

Wonder how much down % wise in Q1 (vQ4 that is)?

Like you will know that down 55% and then up whooping 122% gets you back to square one

[BlackPeter]

There was some encouraging information on the Daigou channel performance from the BUB's announcement (on ASX). It will be interesting to see whether ATM have a similar experience.

12294

Mind that little word "Corporate" in "Corporate Daigou". This is not thousands of highly motivated students with a large Chinese selling network (their friends and families), but basically just another bunch of moving companies without particular interest in any product they are moving. The other thing to consider is - big percentage increases in volume might indicate a very small base ...

More important however - the bubs-news I found on corporate daigou is nearly one year old (published 26/2/2020): https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/corporate-daigou-buying-more-bubs-products-amid-coronavirus-20200226-p544jv.html.

If you look for less aged information on corporate daigou, you will find less enthusiasm.

Anyway - I hope all goes well for A2M, but at this stage I won't hold my breath ...

[Baa_Baa]

Mind that little word "Corporate" in "Corporate Daigou". This is not thousands of highly motivated students with a large Chinese selling network (their friends and families), but basically just another bunch of moving companies without particular interest in any product they are moving. The other thing to consider is - big percentage increases in volume might indicate a very small base ...

More important however - the bubs-news I found on corporate daigou is nearly one year old (published 26/2/2020): https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/corporate-daigou-buying-more-bubs-products-amid-coronavirus-20200226-p544jv.html.

If you look for less aged information on corporate daigou, you will find less enthusiasm.

Anyway - I hope all goes well for A2M, but at this stage I won't hold my breath ...

Good points as always, caution is warranted, take everything on face value pending the ATM results announce. The BUB quote is from their Quarterly Activities Report announce on ASX 28 January 2021, so it's pretty fresh.

[Gregnz]

Mind that little word "Corporate" in "Corporate Daigou". This is not thousands of highly motivated students with a large Chinese selling network (their friends and families), but basically just another bunch of moving companies without particular interest in any product they are moving. The other thing to consider is - big percentage increases in volume might indicate a very small base ...

More important however - the bubs-news I found on corporate daigou is nearly one year old (published 26/2/2020): https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/corporate-daigou-buying-more-bubs-products-amid-coronavirus-20200226-p544jv.html.

If you look for less aged information on corporate daigou, you will find less enthusiasm.

Anyway - I hope all goes well for A2M, but at this stage I won't hold my breath ...

To be fair, A2 Andy (corporate Daigou) is probably a bit more than just a moving company. At his peak even A2 admitted he was able to move 1000 pallets of A2 formula a month, and he definitely has an interest in the product he’s moving, I wonder how this volume compares with the retail Daigou (students, mothers , etc).

[alokdhir]

Did anyone notice new negative developments on the Fisheries front ,exports to China ...they have stopped exports from two facilities in NZ ...exact details not known but seems like some compliance issues
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/major-nz-seafood-exporters-hit-by-chinese-trade-suspension/HFEJPV742NSJCK4EFHMWQQKZP4/

Behind paywall ...

[Gregnz]

Did anyone notice new negative developments on the Fisheries front ,exports to China ...they have stopped exports from two facilities in NZ ...exact details not known but seems like some compliance issues
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/major-nz-seafood-exporters-hit-by-chinese-trade-suspension/HFEJPV742NSJCK4EFHMWQQKZP4/

Behind paywall ...

The suspensions were due to issues around the interpretation of the World Health Organisation's Covid guidance and food safety management, said MPI deputy director-general policy and trade Julie Collins, in response to Herald inquiries.
Both sites had been recently subject to live video audits by Chinese Customs, she said.

[mondograss]

Non paywalled version:
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/124194728/sanford-and-sealord-hit-by-chinese-trade-suspension

[Akane]

Anyway - I hope all goes well for A2M, but at this stage I won't hold my breath ...

I just want it to go back to the $16-$17 range, minimise my losses and call it an expensive lesson, but TBH it's looking very grim.

[RGR367]

I just want it to go back to the $16-$17 range, minimise my losses and call it an expensive lesson, but TBH it's looking very grim.

You're not riding on the story. We got this on less than a dollar then and we'll ride this to Kingdom come just like XRO. You got to believe in a dream first :cool:

[Gregnz]

I just want it to go back to the $16-$17 range, minimise my losses and call it an expensive lesson, but TBH it's looking very grim.

I think you need to ask what has changed since you invested in A2? Did you think it was a rocket ship to the moon as the $16-$17 range would suggest you purchased post Covid after the all time highs of $20+.
My reasons for investing haven't changed, and I stand by my own analysis that Covid19 (a one in one hundred year event) is the reason for the depressed share price. I'm actually still pleasantly surprised that the company is still highly profitable and generating significant revenue throughout this period.
Yes we may have to wait longer to achieve the returns we would like to see, but I don't think many here invested in the hope of making a quick buck.

[Akane]

I think you need to ask what has changed since you invested in A2? Did you think it was a rocket ship to the moon as the $16-$17 range would suggest you purchased post Covid after the all time highs of $20+.
My reasons for investing haven't changed, and I stand by my own analysis that Covid19 (a one in one hundred year event) is the reason for the depressed share price. I'm actually still pleasantly surprised that the company is still highly profitable and generating significant revenue throughout this period.
Yes we may have to wait longer to achieve the returns we would like to see, but I don't think many here invested in the hope of making a quick buck.

I actually averaged to mid $19's, I always thought this is overpriced, at all the price points since $8 until it just kept going up, I caved and bought in thinking it'll keep going - "Hey I might believe this is overpriced, but the gravy train is at full speed ahead, let's hop on!".

Bbut then I realised I was right, it IS overpriced. It's just milk that can be replicated, the "but muh coca cola" argument is flawed, Coke has the secret formula to make it taste the way it does, whilst A2 milk is just milk... "But it has the A2 protein!" well, get some A2 cows into other countries and you can have your own A2 milk, just like they're doing with Zespri golden kiwifruits :t_up:

Daigou argument is flawed, if the product is that desired, they'll just buy at their local store, or T-mall etc. If you desired a piece of A5 Wagyu steak but you had to go across town to get it - you WILL go across town to get it instead of settling for some Aussie chuck steak, wouldn't you? Obviousy A2 is not as desireable as one would think, therefore even if the Daigou argument is valid (the Daigou channel is hindered), consumers must've been thinking "gee, I can't get A2 from my favourite daigou, oh look that's some Sanlu milk, I'll have that instead, it's the same anyway" - that just reinfornces the idea A2 milk is just milk - nothing special.

I'm sure there'll be both sides of the arguments, if you strongly believe A2 is the future, I wish all bag holders the best - I'm a bag holder as well and just as frustrated as you all are, we're all in this together, for both right and wrong reasons.

Yes, I put money on this and I made a HUGE mistake, I learned a lot - I just want to minimise the cost of this lesson as much as I could, that's all. This is the part where I regret getting on the roller coaster and wish to undo all the things I've done, but the roller coaster has just started and there's no platform in sight for me to safely get off.

[Gregnz]

I actually averaged to mid $19's, I always thought this is overpriced, at all the price points since $8 until it just kept going up, I caved and bought in thinking it'll keep going - "Hey I might believe this is overpriced, but the gravy train is at full speed ahead, let's hop on!".

Bbut then I realised I was right, it IS overpriced. It's just milk that can be replicated, the "but muh coca cola" argument is flawed, Coke has the secret formula to make it taste the way it does, whilst A2 milk is just milk... "But it has the A2 protein!" well, get some A2 cows into other countries and you can have your own A2 milk, just like they're doing with Zespri golden kiwifruits :t_up:

Daigou argument is flawed, if the product is that desired, they'll just buy at their local store, or T-mall etc. If you desired a piece of A5 Wagyu steak but you had to go across town to get it - you WILL go across town to get it instead of settling for some Aussie chuck steak, wouldn't you? Obviousy A2 is not as desireable as one would think, therefore even if the Daigou argument is valid (the Daigou channel is hindered), consumers must've been thinking "gee, I can't get A2 from my favourite daigou, oh look that's some Sanlu milk, I'll have that instead, it's the same anyway" - that just reinfornces the idea A2 milk is just milk - nothing special.

I'm sure there'll be both sides of the arguments, if you strongly believe A2 is the future, I wish all bag holders the best - I'm a bag holder as well and just as frustrated as you all are, we're all in this together, for both right and wrong reasons.

Yes, I put money on this and I made a HUGE mistake, I learned a lot - I just want to minimise the cost of this lesson as much as I could, that's all. This is the part where I regret getting on the roller coaster and wish to undo all the things I've done, but the roller coaster has just started and there's no platform in sight for me to safely get off.

There are so many things in that argument which are wrong, but your entitled to your own opinion, it seems regardless of anything I was to say, you’ve already made up your mind that investing in A2 was a HUGE mistake.
If you don’t think there is a platform to get off the roller coaster, perhaps just sell out now at a loss?

The Coca Cola argument has been thrashed to death, I’ve even posted about Fiji Water and other water brands which have made their owners millions, and believe it or not, it’s just bottled water.

Having children you’ll realise that it’s not often as simple as just changing formula brands at a whim, regardless of local alternatives.
You might be surprised to know that many local Chinese still don’t trust local brands, so there will always be a market for imported alternatives.

If you can get your hands on it at a local library, take a read of a book called “Devil in the milk”. Once I read that, I realised that the A2 milk journey is only just beginning. There is a reason that many of the major brands are now starting to introduce their own A2 products, further increasing the size of the overall A2 market.

[alokdhir]

I actually averaged to mid $19's, I always thought this is overpriced, at all the price points since $8 until it just kept going up, I caved and bought in thinking it'll keep going - "Hey I might believe this is overpriced, but the gravy train is at full speed ahead, let's hop on!".

Bbut then I realised I was right, it IS overpriced. It's just milk that can be replicated, the "but muh coca cola" argument is flawed, Coke has the secret formula to make it taste the way it does, whilst A2 milk is just milk... "But it has the A2 protein!" well, get some A2 cows into other countries and you can have your own A2 milk, just like they're doing with Zespri golden kiwifruits :t_up:

Daigou argument is flawed, if the product is that desired, they'll just buy at their local store, or T-mall etc. If you desired a piece of A5 Wagyu steak but you had to go across town to get it - you WILL go across town to get it instead of settling for some Aussie chuck steak, wouldn't you? Obviousy A2 is not as desireable as one would think, therefore even if the Daigou argument is valid (the Daigou channel is hindered), consumers must've been thinking "gee, I can't get A2 from my favourite daigou, oh look that's some Sanlu milk, I'll have that instead, it's the same anyway" - that just reinfornces the idea A2 milk is just milk - nothing special.

I'm sure there'll be both sides of the arguments, if you strongly believe A2 is the future, I wish all bag holders the best - I'm a bag holder as well and just as frustrated as you all are, we're all in this together, for both right and wrong reasons.

Yes, I put money on this and I made a HUGE mistake, I learned a lot - I just want to minimise the cost of this lesson as much as I could, that's all. This is the part where I regret getting on the roller coaster and wish to undo all the things I've done, but the roller coaster has just started and there's no platform in sight for me to safely get off.

I read your thoughts about ATM and the lesson u talking about ....I agree with u that a2 brand got tested for its strength and it didn't turn out to be as strong as we all thought it to be ...Can the company make it stronger ...yes they can over period of time if they are a quality marketing company .

Secondly for SP to move up we need more profits thus higher eps and on continuous basis so market sees some growth story ...that can also be achieved as market for A2 milk is expanding with more awareness and more products .

For me what has mainly changed for ATM is not just Covid exposing their weaknesses of distribution but also weakness of its a2 brand . After all like u say milk is a commodity only and all A2 only milks can be considered to be same to be distinguished by only brand strength . ATM will surely work on this and must be acknowledging this changed scenario in their board meetings

Hopefully being a good marketing company they will try to increase their revenues from naturally expanding pool out of awareness of the benefits of A2 only milk

If they can do that faster then overall growth of this A2 market then it will be considered job well done and SP will again reach high multiples , if they just grow with market or under that then SP will still rise with increased eps but multiples will be much lesser

So it all depends now on the marketing ability of this marketing company IMHO ....next 6-12 months will be important

[Rawz]

Having children you’ll realise that it’s not often as simple as just changing formula brands at a whim, regardless of local alternatives.
You might be surprised to know that many local Chinese still don’t trust local brands, so there will always be a market for imported alternatives.


That's part of his point re daigou thou. It's not simple changing formula so if your baby is used to A2 milk and the daigou channel is closed then why wouldn't you just buy it from the online channel or mother and baby channel?

[bull....]

I actually averaged to mid $19's, I always thought this is overpriced, at all the price points since $8 until it just kept going up, I caved and bought in thinking it'll keep going - "Hey I might believe this is overpriced, but the gravy train is at full speed ahead, let's hop on!".

Bbut then I realised I was right, it IS overpriced. It's just milk that can be replicated, the "but muh coca cola" argument is flawed, Coke has the secret formula to make it taste the way it does, whilst A2 milk is just milk... "But it has the A2 protein!" well, get some A2 cows into other countries and you can have your own A2 milk, just like they're doing with Zespri golden kiwifruits :t_up:

Daigou argument is flawed, if the product is that desired, they'll just buy at their local store, or T-mall etc. If you desired a piece of A5 Wagyu steak but you had to go across town to get it - you WILL go across town to get it instead of settling for some Aussie chuck steak, wouldn't you? Obviousy A2 is not as desireable as one would think, therefore even if the Daigou argument is valid (the Daigou channel is hindered), consumers must've been thinking "gee, I can't get A2 from my favourite daigou, oh look that's some Sanlu milk, I'll have that instead, it's the same anyway" - that just reinfornces the idea A2 milk is just milk - nothing special.

I'm sure there'll be both sides of the arguments, if you strongly believe A2 is the future, I wish all bag holders the best - I'm a bag holder as well and just as frustrated as you all are, we're all in this together, for both right and wrong reasons.

Yes, I put money on this and I made a HUGE mistake, I learned a lot - I just want to minimise the cost of this lesson as much as I could, that's all. This is the part where I regret getting on the roller coaster and wish to undo all the things I've done, but the roller coaster has just started and there's no platform in sight for me to safely get off.

try not to worry its only a loss when you sell , everyone makes mistakes

[Gregnz]

That's part of his point re daigou thou. It's not simple changing formula so if your baby is used to A2 milk and the daigou channel is closed then why wouldn't you just buy it from the online channel or mother and baby channel?

I must have mis interpreted what he was saying about Daigou. After all the product has been available in over 20,000 stores in China, yet mothers still chose to purchase via Daigou.
That’s why we have seen a 40% increase in sales from the store network in China, because they are now buying it locally.
Daigou will just be the cream on top , if and when it eventually returns.

[Biscuit]

...... I just want to minimise the cost of this lesson as much as I could......

Losing money always hurts. The more you lose, the more it hurts and the pain of losing money is a much stronger emotion than the pleasure of winning money. Emotion makes for bad investment decisions. It's not advice but one strategy to minimise loss would be to take money off the table in steps. Some now, some in a few months or at a particular level. Plans are one way to avoid making decisions based on emotion.

[TLM54]

I read your thoughts about ATM and the lesson u talking about ....I agree with u that a2 brand got tested for its strength and it didn't turn out to be as strong as we all thought it to be ...Can the company make it stronger ...yes they can over period of time if they are a quality marketing company .

Secondly for SP to move up we need more profits thus higher eps and on continuous basis so market sees some growth story ...that can also be achieved as market for A2 milk is expanding with more awareness and more products .

For me what has mainly changed for ATM is not just Covid exposing their weaknesses of distribution but also weakness of its a2 brand . After all like u say milk is a commodity only and all A2 only milks can be considered to be same to be distinguished by only brand strength . ATM will surely work on this and must be acknowledging this changed scenario in their board meetings

Hopefully being a good marketing company they will try to increase their revenues from naturally expanding pool out of awareness of the benefits of A2 only milk

If they can do that faster then overall growth of this A2 market then it will be considered job well done and SP will again reach high multiples , if they just grow with market or under that then SP will still rise with increased eps but multiples will be much lesser

So it all depends now on the marketing ability of this marketing company IMHO ....next 6-12 months will be important

Your last point doesn't make any sense and Akane actually provided the counter to this argument: If kids were so dependent on A2 and could not possibly change brands, then why has sales completely tanked? There are alternative channels other than daigou, so why has there been no uptick there? Last guidance, the director even advised that CBEC has under performed.

Like I've said before, the daigous have been deteriorating because class of 2020 students and 12month visa visitors have been leaving AUS/NZ towards the end of the year and no new student and visitors are coming in to replace them. These are the people who have the connections to the mainland china consumers. With tertiary enrollments wrapped up and uni about to start, I think we can be certain students are not coming back this semester. So ask yourself, what is the state of the daigous for the rest of the financial year?

some people have also previously pointed out that other brands have rolled out A2 protein IF as well, the milk from the various brands will be coming from the same share milkers as A2, so Akane is right in pointing out that there isnt anything inherently special about the product itself compared to it's competitors.

[alokdhir]

Your last point doesn't make any sense and Akane actually provided the counter to this argument: If kids were so dependent on A2 and could not possibly change brands, then why has sales completely tanked? There are alternative channels other than daigou, so why has there been no uptick there? Last guidance, the director even advised that CBEC has under performed.

Like I've said before, the daigous have been deteriorating because class of 2020 students and 12month visa visitors have been leaving AUS/NZ towards the end of the year and no new student and visitors are coming in to replace them. These are the people who have the connections to the mainland china consumers. With tertiary enrollments wrapped up and uni about to start, I think we can be certain students are not coming back this semester. So ask yourself, what is the state of the daigous for the rest of the financial year?

some people have also previously pointed out that other brands have rolled out A2 protein IF as well, the milk from the various brands will be coming from the same share milkers as A2, so Akane is right in pointing out that there isnt anything inherently special about the product itself compared to it's competitors.

Looks like u quoted the wrong post ...

[TLM54]

Looks like u quoted the wrong post ...

yea, my bad :)

[Akane]

That's part of his point re daigou thou. It's not simple changing formula so if your baby is used to A2 milk and the daigou channel is closed then why wouldn't you just buy it from the online channel or mother and baby channel?

Thanks Rawz, sorry I couldn't worded it better - I'm a parent myself, I understand some infants/babies cannot just change milk formulas with a snap of your finger. If that is true, why not just buy from a retail store - which means the revenue should equal out? At the end of the day a sale is a sale in A2's eyes, it doesn't matter if it's through the Daigou channel or retail channel.

Sorry if I came across as brash - just very frustrated at myself for jumping into this without doing my own DD and listen to my own gut.
I've learned that I would rather miss the train, than jump on the wrong train and be stuck - FOMO is one hell of a drug :D

[Gregnz]

Thanks Rawz, sorry I couldn't worded it better - I'm a parent myself, I understand some infants/babies cannot just change milk formulas with a snap of your finger. If that is true, why not just buy from a retail store - which means the revenue should equal out? At the end of the day a sale is a sale in A2's eyes, it doesn't matter if it's through the Daigou channel or retail channel.

Sorry if I came across as brash - just very frustrated at myself for jumping into this without doing my own DD and listen to my own gut.
I've learned that I would rather miss the train, than jump on the wrong train and be stuck - FOMO is one hell of a drug :D

Sales haven’t evened out because of pantry stocking. Sales were artificially high during the early stages of Covid, and people over bought the product (the same could be said that the share price should never have got to prior peaks based on this peak in demand). In many cases these have a shelf life of up to 2 years. Pantry de stocking could still be happening.
I personally know people in China who purchased sufficient A2 tins early last year that they still haven’t used up their supply. I’m not sure how common this is.

[alokdhir]

Thanks Rawz, sorry I couldn't worded it better - I'm a parent myself, I understand some infants/babies cannot just change milk formulas with a snap of your finger. If that is true, why not just buy from a retail store - which means the revenue should equal out? At the end of the day a sale is a sale in A2's eyes, it doesn't matter if it's through the Daigou channel or retail channel.

Sorry if I came across as brash - just very frustrated at myself for jumping into this without doing my own DD and listen to my own gut.
I've learned that I would rather miss the train, than jump on the wrong train and be stuck - FOMO is one hell of a drug :D

Dont be too harsh on yourself ...All here have made many mistakes ...some have the courage to admit ...many dont ...

I have learnt ...." Sell and regret is better then not sell and regret " Conversely " Dont buy and regret is better then Buy and regret " Works well if u have doubt trying to sell some stock or buy some stock .

I still think U can minimise your losses here by being patient now ...IMHO

[Akane]

Dont be too harsh on yourself ...All here have made many mistakes ...some have the courage to admit ...many dont ...

I have learnt ...." Sell and regret is better then not sell and regret " Conversely " Dont buy and regret is better then Buy and regret " Works well if u have doubt trying to sell some stock or buy some stock .

I still think U can minimise your losses here by being patient now ...IMHO

Thanks for the encouragement.

I guess it's a bit like flying a plane, better to be on the ground and wishing you're up there, than up there wishing you're down on the ground.

[Gregnz]

Thanks for the encouragement.

I guess it's a bit like flying a plane, better to be on the ground and wishing you're up there, than up there wishing you're down on the ground.

Only problem is being left on the ground when the plane takes off. :t_up:

[Rawz]

Dont be too harsh on yourself ...All here have made many mistakes ...some have the courage to admit ...many dont ...

I have learnt ...." Sell and regret is better then not sell and regret " Conversely " Dont buy and regret is better then Buy and regret " Works well if u have doubt trying to sell some stock or buy some stock .

I still think U can minimise your losses here by being patient now ...IMHO

I also have no worries cutting a loss. Did so on ATM late last and also SAN mid last year once i noticed the downtrend. Redeployed funds which are performing much better.

One thing I did early this year is change my trusty old excel spreadsheet so that the main page has all my holdings, current price, some ratios and portfolio weighting. It excludes the gain or loss. That way I am just looking at the investment as it stands in that point in time. I've found I have been able to buy and sell freely without any emotion doing this.

[Gregnz]

I also have no worries cutting a loss. Did so on ATM late last and also SAN mid last year once i noticed the downtrend. Redeployed funds which are performing much better.

One thing I did early this year is change my trusty old excel spreadsheet so that the main page has all my holdings, current price, some ratios and portfolio weighting. It excludes the gain or loss. That way I am just looking at the investment as it stands in that point in time. I've found I have been able to buy and sell freely without any emotion doing this.

Id like to buy and sell more often, but the tax bill from IRD is the main factor putting me off. Everything I have bought, I have done with the intention of holding for 5+ years. I consider myself an investor and definitely not a trader.

[Leftfield]

Thanks for the encouragement.

I guess it's a bit like flying a plane, better to be on the ground and wishing you're up there, than up there wishing you're down on the ground.

All share investment has some risk.

At the moment we are making risk assessments in a vacuum based on incomplete info until the next scheduled ATM update due 25 Feb.

Always best to make your decisions based on firm fact than in a vacuum where rumours and speculation abound.

JMHO.

[Habits]

Be careful with that. The listed FSF that you can buy into is the upstream processing part of the company. A higher milk price might be good for farmers. But it is bad for FSF because they have to pay for their milk to process at 'market rates'. As a processor, you do not want your input costs to go up!

SNOOPY

Gee the only thing that increases with ATM is the number of pages on this thread... the SP seems to be headed for a downside breakout below $10.90 eh. Am still keeping the faith until the forthcoming announcement then might do the switcheroo into FSF

[BlackPeter]

Only problem is being left on the ground when the plane takes off. :t_up:

It depends ... I can imagine a number of scenarios where it would be better to be left on the ground ...

Not saying that ATM is such a scenario, but sometimes it feels that some of the posters here are too much emotionally involved. Bad investment strategy. ATM is just one stock out of many which may make us money or which may lose us money. Plenty other stocks with the same properties around as well.

Fear to miss a plane is a pure emotional problem, If you think about it - next day there will be another plane ... Emotion is the enemy of reason, and it is reason one needs to make good investment decisions.

[Louisphan]

Hottest thread, 999 page now. Hope page 1000 will start a new uptrend for ATM.

[Gregnz]

It depends ... I can imagine a number of scenarios where it would be better to be left on the ground ...

Not saying that ATM is such a scenario, but sometimes it feels that some of the posters here are too much emotionally involved. Bad investment strategy. ATM is just one stock out of many which may make us money or which may lose us money. Plenty other stocks with the same properties around as well.

Fear to miss a plane is a pure emotional problem, If you think about it - next day there will be another plane ... Emotion is the enemy of reason, and it is reason one needs to make good investment decisions.

I'm probably somewhat emotionally involved, although have a very healthy diversified portfolio. My emotional involvement comes from the fact I actually believe in the A2 product, I've read all of the books and articles about it, so I consider it more than just an investment. I believe its also been very beneficial for my own health, and I consume the product. I personally don't just like to invest in companies because I think they can make me money, I prefer to invest in what I think is right also.

[BlackPeter]

I'm probably somewhat emotionally involved, although have a very healthy diversified portfolio. My emotional involvement comes from the fact I actually believe in the A2 product, I've read all of the books and articles about it, so I consider it more than just an investment. I believe its also been very beneficial for my own health, and I consume the product. I personally don't just like to invest in companies because I think they can make me money, I prefer to invest in what I think is right also.

Diversification is good, nearly as good as A2 milk. As far as the latter is concerned I agree that it does make a difference for some people. However - it does not make any difference for them whether they get their A2 milk from the A2 milk company or from any other source of A2 milk.

We happen to drink A2 milk for decades supplied by the friendly beast outside of our door (our house cow). Used to be a Jersey Cross, now it is a Dexter / Jersey. No need to attach myself emotionally to the A2 company or any other milk supplier (though - I like our cow :p - she is a nice girl with character ...):

I only buy shares if I think that they are undervalued, and that, at the moment, I am not so sure about with ATM.

[Gregnz]

Diversification is good, nearly as good as A2 milk. As far as the latter is concerned I agree that it does make a difference for some people. However - it does not make any difference for them whether they get their A2 milk from the A2 milk company or from any other source of A2 milk.

We happen to drink A2 milk for decades supplied by the friendly beast outside of our door (our house cow). Used to be a Jersey Cross, now it is a Dexter / Jersey. No need to attach myself emotionally to the A2 company or any other milk supplier (though - I like our cow :p - she is a nice girl with character ...):

I only buy shares if I think that they are undervalued, and that, at the moment, I am not so sure about with ATM.

As far as an investment in A2 milk on the Nzx, there are a limited range of options. Are there other NZ publicly listed companies also producing an A2 product? Fonterra produce it on behalf of the A2 Milk Co in the anchor bottles, but I'm not aware of other companies publicly listed?

[Habits]

We happen to drink A2 milk for decades supplied by the friendly beast outside of our door (our house cow). Used to be a Jersey Cross, now it is a Dexter / Jersey

Thats very very convenient,,, and handy.

I am going to give the a2 product a solid go and see how much differnce it makes. I suspect it works better for either children or seniors

[kiora]

Or you could get a jersey cow and have it out your front door
https://florencegriswoldmuseum.org/collections/online/fox-chase/fox-chase-the-cow/

[GR8DAY]

Quote BLACK PETER...."I only buy shares if I think that they are undervalued, and that, at the moment, I am not so sure about with ATM."

(off topic)
BP.... Do you by any chance have a list of those under valued cos? Lol

[Balance]

Thats very very convenient,,, and handy.

I am going to give the a2 product a solid go and see how much differnce it makes. I suspect it works better for either children or seniors

I scratch my head in wonderment that at this stage of the game, we are still reading about the merits of A2 milk vs conventional milk?

The A2 milk advantage was debated years ago and it became clear that while many harbour doubts (including Fonterra), the anecdotal evidence from Asian consumers (60% are lactose intolerant etc etc) was so convincing that A2 milk took off amongst the Asians, especially China - forming the basis for the rise and rise of ATM.

Other competitors have now joined the fray and the debate & discussion has shifted to impact of the competition, the double downgrades, ATM's strategic blunder in getting rid of Jayne (with hindsight) and where to from here.

But seems like we are back at square 1 - A2 vs A1 milk!

[Balance]

Simplistic summary of where A2M is at :

Bull case for A2M

https://www.raskmedia.com.au/2021/02/09/the-bull-case-for-a2-milk-company-ltd-asxa2m-shares/

"Given international travel will resume, the positive growth of MBS stores, and increasing brand awareness, I believe the market has overreacted to a2 Milk’s recent earnings downgrade."

Bear case (but actually, a bull case in disguise)

https://www.raskmedia.com.au/2021/02/10/the-bear-case-for-the-a2-milk-asxa2m-share-price/

"While I’m keeping an eye out for any of the aforementioned bear scenarios playing out, I think a lot of the downside is already priced into the a2 Milk share price.

As a result, I think today is a good entry point for investors."

[Balance]

https://www.shortman.com.au/stock?q=A2M

Meanwhile, shorters continue to cover (buy shares) but sp is slipping.

Interesting as it means that long termers are selling to shorters?

[BlackPeter]

As far as an investment in A2 milk on the Nzx, there are a limited range of options. Are there other NZ publicly listed companies also producing an A2 product? Fonterra produce it on behalf of the A2 Milk Co in the anchor bottles, but I'm not aware of other companies publicly listed?

We used to sell occasionally a calf :p; But admittedly - while they all grew into A2 milk producing cows, none of them came with a NZX listing. So - if you insist on investing into A2 milk on the NZX, than I recon you mentioned all the competitors.

[BlackPeter]

Quote BLACK PETER...."I only buy shares if I think that they are undervalued, and that, at the moment, I am not so sure about with ATM."

(off topic)
BP.... Do you by any chance have a list of those under valued cos? Lol

Of course - I look at this list nearly every day - it is my portfolio :p ; If you follow this (and the other) forum, you will know most of them anyway :):

BTW - I high lighted in your quote what I said (which is slightly different to what you asked for).

[GR8DAY]

....ah cheers BP. Seems like we hold similar portfolios! 🤕

[HKG2301]

I actually averaged to mid $19's, I always thought this is overpriced, at all the price points since $8 until it just kept going up, I caved and bought in thinking it'll keep going - "Hey I might believe this is overpriced, but the gravy train is at full speed ahead, let's hop on!".

I'm sure there'll be both sides of the arguments, if you strongly believe A2 is the future, I wish all bag holders the best - I'm a bag holder as well and just as frustrated as you all are, we're all in this together, for both right and wrong reasons.

Yes, I put money on this and I made a HUGE mistake, I learned a lot - I just want to minimise the cost of this lesson as much as I could, that's all. This is the part where I regret getting on the roller coaster and wish to undo all the things I've done, but the roller coaster has just started and there's no platform in sight for me to safely get off.


Apologies if someone already replied to this point, I'm just catching up on the thread. However, somebody needs to point out a basic flaw in your investment strategy, or an alternative at least...

You don't need to 'make your money back' on ATM. Going forward, you should consider ALL shares (indeed all investments) and constantly compare and rank them for best possible return.

If you don't expect a good bounce of the SP in ATM (it sounds like you don't) then sell now and invest in a share in which you are confident. Swings and roundabouts. Paper losses are irrelevant, unless considered for CGT reasons. At any given time, if your portfolio doesn't reflect your best guess for future gains, then you need to rebalance.

Say you own ATM at a loss, and expect it to be rangebound for the next few months (I don't), whilst thinking the commercial property sector is still lagging. Sell ATM, buy KPG or APL. Easy as.

As the saying goes, never get emotionally involved in a share, either on the way up, or the way down!


[Disc: My ATM position is presently under water, but I'm holding for the longer term and hoping for a bounce on news later this month.]

[HKG2301]

Id like to buy and sell more often, but the tax bill from IRD is the main factor putting me off. Everything I have bought, I have done with the intention of holding for 5+ years. I consider myself an investor and definitely not a trader.

Even investors have to trade! :)

[Dotbond]

Yep I sold my ATM holding at $13,000 loss. Made back on OCA and PEB

[bull....]

china's feihe launches a2 milk variant and ever wonder why bubs isnt doing well , why feihe just launching goats milk one as well

[Balance]

china's feihe launches a2 milk variant and ever wonder why bubs isnt doing well , why feihe just launching goats milk one as well

https://www.nutraingredients-asia.com/Article/2021/01/18/China-s-infant-formula-giant-Feihe-to-expand-into-FSMPs-after-goat-milk-powder-patent-granted

Interesting development

[HKG2301]

This one from Yahoo Finance from 19 Jan. I'll leave the smarter minds amongst us to pick it to pieces...

A2 Milk Company's (NZSE:ATM) Intrinsic Value Is Potentially 95% Above Its Share Pricehttps://finance.yahoo.com/news/a2-milk-company-limiteds-nzse-213610097.html

[Balance]

This one from Yahoo Finance from 19 Jan. I'll leave the smarter minds amongst us to pick it to pieces...

A2 Milk Company's (NZSE:ATM) Intrinsic Value Is Potentially 95% Above Its Share Pricehttps://finance.yahoo.com/news/a2-milk-company-limiteds-nzse-213610097.html

Simply Wall St article. Enough said.

[bull....]

https://www.nutraingredients-asia.com/Article/2021/01/18/China-s-infant-formula-giant-Feihe-to-expand-into-FSMPs-after-goat-milk-powder-patent-granted

Interesting development

yep feihe will become a more direct competitor to a2 now in the a2 space and as the biggest infant formula player in china it dont lack muscle

[Balance]

yep feihe will become a more direct competitor to a2 now in the a2 space and as the biggest infant formula player in china it dont lack muscle

Well, says to me that the results announcement on 25 Feb is going to be a rather muted affair by the new CEO as he would want to have a really good handle on things (especially pertaining to competition issues) before providing an outlook comment.

If anything, one would expect him to play it safe and cautiously as he is going to own any outlook comments he makes in his first outing as CEO.

[Gregnz]

I’d be curious to know opinions from others, as to why shorters are running for the hills? Surely if they expect a mediocre HY and potentially revised FY guidance, wouldn’t it make sense to keep short positions open, or at least open new positions?

[bull....]

I’d be curious to know opinions from others, as to why shorters are running for the hills? Surely if they expect a mediocre HY and potentially revised FY guidance, wouldn’t it make sense to keep short positions open, or at least open new positions?

shorters are not running for the hills , if your got long term sellers or what ever , shorters can buy back into the volume with out the price racing upside due to there buying.

lock in some profits as maybe they think the downside is not as great now? doesnt mean the upside is better

[Gregnz]

shorters are not running for the hills , if your got long term sellers or what ever , shorters can buy back into the volume with out the price racing upside due to there buying.

Millions of them have closed positions, from almost 8% to now just above 6%? Or am I reading it wrong. That to me is running for the hills?

[bull....]

Millions of them have closed positions, from almost 8% to now just above 6%? Or am I reading it wrong. That to me is running for the hills?

you didnt understand they might be locking in profits without pushing the price up , just cause the short interest is falling means nothing except about risk/reward for the a2 proposition which was a trade from an overvalued company fundamentals. why would you maintain a massive short position in a company idf its not going bust. its a trade only short position

[Gregnz]

you didnt understand they might be locking in profits without pushing the price up , just cause the short interest is falling means nothing except about risk/reward for the a2 proposition

that’s a very odd explanation. Yes I understand they are locking in profits, but that makes absolutely no sense if they are convinced there is further downside. Based on comments here about competition etc, surely downside is a given.

Based on some of the comments on HC recently, and here, you could be mistaken for thinking the company is going bust, as though they have never dealt with competition before. Just seems the sentiment from shorters doesn’t match their actions.

[Balance]

that’s a very odd explanation. Yes I understand they are locking in profits, but that makes absolutely no sense if they are convinced there is further downside. Based on comments here about competition etc, surely downside is a given.

Based on some of the comments on HC recently, and here, you could be mistaken for thinking the company is going bust, as though they have never dealt with competition before. Just seems the sentiment from shorters doesn’t match their actions.

Given the other comments here, surely upside is a given?

Market is a market - buyers and sellers, and shorters by definition are traders.

[Akane]

Apologies if someone already replied to this point, I'm just catching up on the thread. However, somebody needs to point out a basic flaw in your investment strategy, or an alternative at least...

You don't need to 'make your money back' on ATM. Going forward, you should consider ALL shares (indeed all investments) and constantly compare and rank them for best possible return.

If you don't expect a good bounce of the SP in ATM (it sounds like you don't) then sell now and invest in a share in which you are confident. Swings and roundabouts. Paper losses are irrelevant, unless considered for CGT reasons. At any given time, if your portfolio doesn't reflect your best guess for future gains, then you need to rebalance.

Say you own ATM at a loss, and expect it to be rangebound for the next few months (I don't), whilst thinking the commercial property sector is still lagging. Sell ATM, buy KPG or APL. Easy as.

As the saying goes, never get emotionally involved in a share, either on the way up, or the way down!


[Disc: My ATM position is presently under water, but I'm holding for the longer term and hoping for a bounce on news later this month.]

You're not wrong, I dived head in first into ATM with the wrong mindset.
Luckily ATM is only one of my tranches, although it's the biggest one by a lot. It feels like ATM has singlehandedly undone all the work on the other shares, 3 steps forward, 3 steps back.
Going forward, I'm just waiting for a bit of a bounce - every little bit helps, then I'll exit and reinvest in other shares.

Thanks for your input, I'll take it onboard.