ATM - A2 Milk Corporation Limited

[Gregnz]

Given the other comments here, surely upside is a given?

Market is a market - buyers and sellers, and shorters by definition are traders.

Yes. Understand that. I guess I was hoping to understand why a company with seemingly endless downside, meaning more profit for shorters, would see millions of short positions closed in the past two weeks.

[Balance]

Yes. Understand that. I guess I was hoping to understand why a company with seemingly endless downside, meaning more profit for shorters, would see millions of short positions closed in the past two weeks.

I suspect you are grouping shorters into one single minded market organism - which they are not.

They will all have differing opinions and trading strategies.

Still plenty of stock shorted.

[Baa_Baa]

that’s a very odd explanation. Yes I understand they are locking in profits, but that makes absolutely no sense if they are convinced there is further downside.

like he said, you might not have understood and focused on the 'profits' part of his answer rather than the 'risk/reward' part.

simply put, of the 8% shorts a wee while ago, 2% have subsequently decided the risk of staying short isn't worth it and closed out; while 6% currently think the reward is still worth it staying short.

[Baa_Baa]

I suspect you are grouping shorters into one single minded market organism - which they are not.

They will all have differing opinions and trading strategies.

Still plenty of stock shorted.

precisely, it's not some binary equation where all shorts think the same, or all longs think the same.

[Gregnz]

like he said, you might not have understood and focused on the 'profits' part of his answer rather than the 'risk/reward' part.

simply put, of the 8% shorts a wee while ago, 2% have subsequently decided the risk of staying short isn't worth it and closed out; while 6% currently think the reward is still worth it staying short.

Great explanation. Thank you

[Balance]

like he said, you might not have understood and focused on the 'profits' part of his answer rather than the 'risk/reward' part.

simply put, of the 8% shorts a wee while ago, 2% have subsequently decided the risk of staying short isn't worth it and closed out; while 6% currently think the reward is still worth it staying short.

In fact, shorts have gone from 61m down to 49m - so 80% (on latest data) are staying in for further gains while 20% are happy to lock in some nice fat juicy profits from ATM going backwards.

[bull....]

$10 in aus the line in the sand eh

[BlackPeter]

$10 in aus the line in the sand eh

... well, yes - lines in the sand are easy to cross :);

[Beagle]

Oat milk another growing challenge. My cousin Graham is a hard worker and a very bright guy. (I see he grows 7 or 8 things) ;) https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/124201176/oat-boom-validation-of-lifes-work-for-southland-farmer
A lot of advertising for almond milk on T.V at the moment too. I think they get the message across much better than the ATM television adds which simply claim A2 milk makes you feel better.
Can't help wondering if the groundswell to real alternative cow milk won't just keep on growing.

[LEMON]

I agree, Oat/coconut & almond milk is becoming the new choice for many and it's also "cool" to be drinking alternative and many claim benefits.

[LEMON]

I also believe you can substitute this for baby powder. Not 100% how this suits the baby but it's always a wonder.

[Ruby]

I think you folk like 'oats' cos it rhymes with gloats lol...

[kiora]

I also believe you can substitute this for baby powder. Not 100% how this suits the baby but it's always a wonder.

Only if you want a malnourished baby. This is a dangerous suggestion!

[Beagle]

I think you folk like 'oats' cos it rhymes with gloats lol...

LOL also rhymes with boats ;)

[LEMON]

Only if you want a malnourished baby. This is a dangerous suggestion!

It's not my suggestion. I even stated. im not sure how this suits the baby!

Im only saying I believe you can substitute.

I agree it would be stupid to do so!

[blackie]

this morning I was perusing the milk section in a local Night and Day shop in Dunedin.

No A2 on offer but https://otisoatmilk.co.nz/ was available at about $7.70 per litre.

I thought there was about 4 options available but I see their website only lists 2 x products.

bearing in mind this market research took place before I had received my morning coffee.

[Beagle]

https://otisoatmilk.co.nz/ Hmmm...couldn't help noticing this claim
Lighter on the land. The Oat footprint is much lighter, according to global research. Producing one litre of oat milk requires 11x less land, 13x less water, 6.5x less fertiliser, and emits 3.5x less greenhouse gas emissions than one litre of dairy milk.

Hmmm...Wonder how much the price will come down too when they start producing it at great scale ? Maybe that factory they are looking to build in Southland is worth investing in ? I know who to ring to make more enquiries :)

Really one has to wonder if this isn't the future if its so environmentally friendly and good for you.

Can't help noticing Oat also rhymes with Moat...ATM used to talk a lot about their IP moat but have gone very quiet about that in recent times.

[Gregnz]

A 35,000km round trip for NZ Grown oats to be turned into Oat Milk seriously can’t be great for carbon emissions. If it’s going to be a ‘thing’ that’s good for the environment, then they definitely need a factory here.

Nothing wrong with Oat Milk, one of many alternatives to Dairy, but anyone who thinks it can provide the nutritional requirements needed for infants is seriously deluded.

[LEMON]

A 35,000km round trip for NZ Grown oats to be turned into Oat Milk seriously can’t be great for carbon emissions. If it’s going to be a ‘ thing’ that’s good for the environment, then they need a factory here.

Nothing wrong with Oat Milk, one of many alternatives to Dairy, but anyone who thinks it can provide the nutritional requirements needed for infants is seriously deluded.

Not as delusional as you may think.
I'm sure when a man said he will make burgers out of mould in a test tube everyone called him delusional also.

I just hope some posters understand that im saying that there is already formulas with alternative milk out there.
I'm not suggesting you should do that for your infants.

I'm just stating alternative milk is popular and they even have products for infants already in this deluded world.

[Biscuit]

....The Oat footprint is much lighter, according to global research. Producing one litre of oat milk requires 11x less land, 13x less water, 6.5x less fertiliser, and emits 3.5x less greenhouse gas emissions than one litre of dairy milk.....

Or you could just drink water which is free, requires no fertiliser, no land, no greenhouse gas emissions and no extra water and it is nutritionally very similar to oat milk.

[ralph]

Or you could just drink water which is free, requires no fertiliser, no land, no greenhouse gas emissions and no extra water and it is nutritionally very similar to oat milk.
OR water from a still or fermented with grapes Hic leaves a bit of a footprint in the mornings . Seriously dont worry they will not replace milk ,but maybe a 2 with Organic full fat non homogenized

[Balance]

... well, yes - lines in the sand are easy to cross :);

Reason why A2M dropped below the $10 line in the sand?

A downgrade note from yet another broker this week:

"According to a note out of Citi, its analysts have retained their sell rating and cut the price target on this infant formula and fresh milk company’s shares to $9.40.

The broker expects the company to continue to struggle in the second half of FY 2021 due to ongoing weakness in the daigou channel and a resurgence in Chinese infant formula brands.

It appears concerned these pressures could be structural. Incidentally, for similar reasons, the broker has reaffirmed its sell rating and 51 cents price target on Bubs Australia Ltd (ASX: BUB) shares.

The a2 Milk share price is currently fetching $10.45."

[BlackPeter]

https://otisoatmilk.co.nz/ Hmmm...couldn't help noticing this claim
Lighter on the land. The Oat footprint is much lighter, according to global research. Producing one litre of oat milk requires 11x less land, 13x less water, 6.5x less fertiliser, and emits 3.5x less greenhouse gas emissions than one litre of dairy milk.

Hmmm...Wonder how much the price will come down too when they start producing it at great scale ? Maybe that factory they are looking to build in Southland is worth investing in ? I know who to ring to make more enquiries :)

Really one has to wonder if this isn't the future if its so environmentally friendly and good for you.

Can't help noticing Oat also rhymes with Moat...ATM used to talk a lot about their IP moat but have gone very quiet about that in recent times.

I think there is only one minor point of difference: There is not more milk in "oat milk" than there is fun in a "fun run".

Oat milk is a white colored emulsion of squashed plant based substances in water which has (from a chemical and nutritional perspective) absolutely nothing to do with real milk. I must however admit that it looks similar like the white colored water they sell in New Zealand supermarkets as real milk (with all the good stuff which nature puts into real milk removed).

[LEMON]

Speculation of lockdown in Melbourne to last up to 3 weeks.
Does anyone think this will be likely to affect A2 again with distribution etc??

[Habits]

Yes that is right it could have an effect though I heard the LD is for 5 days... maybe I should have sold these first thing last Tuesday like I planned but got talked out of it. Let's wait and see what the reaction is on Monday

[LEMON]

Yeah, the word is Dan Andrews, the Victorian premier gave 1 hours notice for a 5-day lockdown to prevent panic rather than give the full details of a full lockdown for a longer period. Instead, it backfired and people when loco anyway.

Some lady in the airport cafe also was positive and had served thousands of travellers moving around the country.
As usual, I must STATE this is only speculation but it may not look good for AUS which I believe will affect A2 heavily if it results in another severe lockdown.
I believe it's the UK variant also.
Monday may not look to good!

Again this is the only word in the grapevine

[Beagle]

I think there is only one minor point of difference: There is not more milk in "oat milk" than there is fun in a "fun run".

Oat milk is a white colored emulsion of squashed plant based substances in water which has (from a chemical and nutritional perspective) absolutely nothing to do with real milk. I must however admit that it looks similar like the white colored water they sell in New Zealand supermarkets as real milk (with all the good stuff which nature puts into real milk removed).

I can sense a doggy blindfold taste test coming for this hound in the near future. I must get Mrs Beagle to arrange several small samples of milk, A2M lite, Anchor lite, Almond, Goat, Oat, and Soy Milk. Got to be something in there I like because to be honest I find my inclination to drink milk declining quite significantly in recent times. Back to things that rhyme with goat and oat, one thing that really worries me going forward for ATM is the apparent lack of any moat. For years they talked up the value of their IP and the protection it accorded them but its clear with the passage of time these claims had no basis in law or fact whatsoever. It makes me wonder about the integrity of the claims they make about "it just makes you feel better".

The second thing that really worries me is they are so heavily dependent on China. The inherent high level of ongoing (and rising in my opinion), geopolitical and trade risk that goes with that makes me feel quite uncomfortable about getting back into this stock in any meaningful way.

https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/THE-A2-MILK-COMPANY-LIMIT-11384022/?type_recherche=rapide&mots=ATM Market screener has them on a FY21 PE of 28.
We know one can make DCF models to come up with almost any valuation you like dependent on one's assumptions regarding the future growth rate, (which lets all be honest is anyone's guess).

For my money I will stick with my model which has worked very well for me. I take a no growth PE which is currently 11 and will pay 1 PE more for every 1% growth rate I think a company can =grow at on average for the next 10 years.

Running this filter over ATM even after the ~ 50% correction on a forward PE of 28 this suggests to me that for me to be interested in ATM (leaving aside geopolitical and trade risks for a minute), I would need to feel they can grow eps at a compound average rate of 17% per annum for the next decade. My best guess, (and that's all it is), is they are unlikely to grow eps at that rate on average.

I think the Chinese brands are going to continue to gain more traction and the long term prognosis for trade protectionism is worrisome.
I think their years of fast growth are behind them and as they fail my filter I am still happy to sit on the sidelines notwithstanding the ~ 50% correction in the last 7-8 months.
Quite apart from any attempt to have a guess at the average future growth rate I can't help noticing that the chart still looks really horrible. I think anyone buying in the current downtrend is very "brave" Trying to pick a bottom in a downtrend is a messy business that usually end badly.

Better to wait for a confirmed TA signal of a new uptrend and buy into upwards momentum, a far less risky proposition (Thanks to KW, Baa Baa, Hoop and others for sharing your TA skills with us).

[Tomtom]

Maybe, can you name one?
Of course. Art must always be driven by purpose, without purpose it would merely be decoration.

[Habits]

All very good advice Beagle thank you... you are a smart bow-wow!! Thats the first time i have heard a formula for assessing PE ratio, yours seems a most useful way to get a perspective on that. Also good to be reminded to avoid downtrends even though they are tempting to average cost.. like last march when I kept buying HLG as they were falling from 6 bucks through 5 and 4 eventually i had to give up. I again bought more in the low 2s. We know what happened after that but it took until about 4.70 before i broke even. Absolutely crazy but I should have just waited.

[Biscuit]

Of course. Art must always be driven by purpose, without purpose it would merely be decoration.


We are going to get trashed for going off track, but I'd have to say that is a pretty weak "rule" of art! You are probably right although Jackson Pollock comes to mind, also Desmond Morris's paintings by his chimpanzee must defy the "rule of purpose". Also, wasn't it a big thing in the 60's to tie paintbrushes to animals to produce fairly random abstract art?

Discl: still holding ATM.

[LEMON]

http://thefoodbeveragenews.com/461/the-global-a2-milk-market-to-witness-massive-growth-amid-high-demand-for-organic-milk-products/

[LEMON]

https://www.fooddive.com/news/study-higher-plant-based-milk-prices-are-justified-but-dairy-milk-is-too/594744/

[LEMON]

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.openpr.com/amp/2239605/a2-milk-market-size-is-projected-to-reach-3-699-2-million

[Snoopy]

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.openpr.com/amp/2239605/a2-milk-market-size-is-projected-to-reach-3-699-2-million

"The key players operating in the a2 milk industry include GCMMF (Amul), Erden Creamery Private Limited, Freedom Foods Group Limited, Lion Dairy & Drinks, Provilac Dairy Farms Pvt. Ltd., Ripley Farms LLC, Taw River Dairy, The a2 Milk Company Limited, Urban Farms Milk and Vinamilk."

Hmmm, the A2 milk landscape is more of a 'battlegound' than I thought!

SNOOPY

[Akane]

Still blaming the Daigou aye, you'd thought for a billion dollar company they would've figured out how to ship their products via alternative channels by now, it's almost a year since the big lockdown.

[BlackPeter]

I can sense a doggy blindfold taste test coming for this hound in the near future. I must get Mrs Beagle to arrange several small samples of milk, A2M lite, Anchor lite, Almond, Goat, Oat, and Soy Milk. Got to be something in there I like because to be honest I find my inclination to drink milk declining quite significantly in recent times. Back to things that rhyme with goat and oat, one thing that really worries me going forward for ATM is the apparent lack of any moat. For years they talked up the value of their IP and the protection it accorded them but its clear with the passage of time these claims had no basis in law or fact whatsoever. It makes me wonder about the integrity of the claims they make about "it just makes you feel better".

The second thing that really worries me is they are so heavily dependent on China. The inherent high level of ongoing (and rising in my opinion), geopolitical and trade risk that goes with that makes me feel quite uncomfortable about getting back into this stock in any meaningful way.

https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/THE-A2-MILK-COMPANY-LIMIT-11384022/?type_recherche=rapide&mots=ATM Market screener has them on a FY21 PE of 28.
We know one can make DCF models to come up with almost any valuation you like dependent on one's assumptions regarding the future growth rate, (which lets all be honest is anyone's guess).

For my money I will stick with my model which has worked very well for me. I take a no growth PE which is currently 11 and will pay 1 PE more for every 1% growth rate I think a company can =grow at on average for the next 10 years.

Running this filter over ATM even after the ~ 50% correction on a forward PE of 28 this suggests to me that for me to be interested in ATM (leaving aside geopolitical and trade risks for a minute), I would need to feel they can grow eps at a compound average rate of 17% per annum for the next decade. My best guess, (and that's all it is), is they are unlikely to grow eps at that rate on average.

I think the Chinese brands are going to continue to gain more traction and the long term prognosis for trade protectionism is worrisome.
I think their years of fast growth are behind them and as they fail my filter I am still happy to sit on the sidelines notwithstanding the ~ 50% correction in the last 7-8 months.
Quite apart from any attempt to have a guess at the average future growth rate I can't help noticing that the chart still looks really horrible. I think anyone buying in the current downtrend is very "brave" Trying to pick a bottom in a downtrend is a messy business that usually end badly.

Better to wait for a confirmed TA signal of a new uptrend and buy into upwards momentum, a far less risky proposition (Thanks to KW, Baa Baa, Hoop and others for sharing your TA skills with us).

Great reminder and reality check;

Related to your proposed blind test though would I recommend to add some real unprocessed milk as well ... all the stuff you can buy in the shop (particularly the "light" stuff) is compared to real raw milk basically tasteless. Waste of money.

BTW - real milk does not make fat (well, if consumed in moderation) .... the cream which they remove during processing is actually good for your body to process the good things in the milk (helps your body next to other things to absorb the vitamin D and use the calcium in the milk instead of just flushing it through your kidneys).

[Balance]

Still blaming the Daigou aye, you'd thought for a billion dollar company they would've figured out how to ship their products via alternative channels by now, it's almost a year since the big lockdown.

Gotto be fair - the pandemic has impacted on almost all businesses and ATM is no different from the other Australasian businesses adversely impacted by the Daigou disruption.

The greater issue though as you alert to is whether there is more to the slowdown in sales than just the Daigou disruption - the competition is certainly heating up out there and has ATM lost its ‘first mover advantage’ competitive edge and is its product premium pricing coming under stress?

ATM $44 per can vs Karicare A2 ind as by formula $32 per can.

Lately I have noticed Karicare A2 IF stock at two of our local supermarkets looking rather scarce vs plenty for ATM platinum.

And Karicare is launching a new A2 formulation shortly according to my contacts.

[Beagle]

Great reminder and reality check;

Related to your proposed blind test though would I recommend to add some real unprocessed milk as well ... all the stuff you can buy in the shop (particularly the "light" stuff) is compared to real raw milk basically tasteless. Waste of money.

BTW - real milk does not make fat (well, if consumed in moderation) .... the cream which they remove during processing is actually good for your body to process the good things in the milk (helps your body next to other things to absorb the vitamin D and use the calcium in the milk instead of just flushing it through your kidneys).

Good idea mate. Must admit I have often pondered how much goodness is sucked out of milk to make it "lite"

[alokdhir]

Does anyone give any importance to why pasteurisation was discovered and why all raw milk was advised to be boiled before consuming it ??

Processing of milk mainly pasteurisation still has many benefits and drinking not boiled raw milk is still not a safe practise for adults leave alone kids

Making milk light also has its advantages ...removing saturated fat is beneficial for majority of world's overfed population

[BlackPeter]

Does anyone give any importance to why pasteurisation was discovered and why all raw milk was advised to be boiled before consuming it ??

Processing of milk mainly pasteurisation still has many benefits and drinking not boiled raw milk is still not a safe practise for adults leave alone kids

Making milk light also has its advantages ...removing saturated fat is beneficial for majority of world's overfed population


Probably not the right subject for this thread - and I don't really want to get into all the nutritional quasi religious nonsense spouted around by nutritionists but changed every 10 years when a new generation of nutritional scientists starts to make their career. Most things we eat are depending on the flavor of the year either healthy or terrible for your health - but it changes: Meat, red meat, cholesterol, eggs, real milk, light milk, ... pick your choice in the right year, but difficult to keep up.

My family is drinking raw milk (with short breaks) for the last 60 years and we never had any related health problems and are all healthy, while a number of our NZ friends and acquaintances only taking in the oh so healthy "light" stuff suffer now from osteoporosis. Pretty sad. Some changed now to real milk, but I recon it might be too late for them ... if your bones are porous, you can't really refill them.

No kidding - we do know too many NZ friends / acquaintances with the light milk brain fad and suffering now under osteoporosis, while none of our friends and family back in Germany (where they don't have the light milk fad) suffer under this disease.

Making milk light has however a lot of advantages for the processor - it allows them to take all the good stuff out of the milk and to sell the remaining water to the full milk price to the people dumb enough to pay for it.

Obviously - if your calorie intake is too high and your exercise regime too light, you will gain weight and have other related negative health effects ... In this case it is a good idea to eat less and better and exercise more.

Anyway - each to their own :):

I do agree however with your comment on pasteurization. It is a good idea unless you can control the cow and milkshed hygiene (which is difficult unless you milk your own cow). We can :):

[whome]

The primary reason milk is pasteurised in NZ is to protect the general milk drinking population ie families with children who drink milk for healthy bone growth, from tuberculosis, a disease that is still prevalent in pockets of bush areas around NZ where opossums are the prime vector of transmission to dairy cows. While the incidence is much lower now than it used to be due to TB testing of cows, it only takes an infected possum to cross a grass paddock to potentially infect cows grazing there.

[alokdhir]

Probably not the right subject for this thread - and I don't really want to get into all the nutritional quasi religious nonsense spouted around by nutritionists but changed every 10 years when a new generation of nutritional scientists starts to make their career. Most things we eat are depending on the flavor of the year either healthy or terrible for your health - but it changes: Meat, red meat, cholesterol, eggs, real milk, light milk, ... pick your choice in the right year, but difficult to keep up.

My family is drinking raw milk (with short breaks) for the last 60 years and we never had any related health problems and are all healthy, while a number of our NZ friends and acquaintances only taking in the oh so healthy "light" stuff suffer now from osteoporosis. Pretty sad. Some changed now to real milk, but I recon it might be too late for them ... if your bones are porous, you can't really refill them.

No kidding - we do know too many NZ friends / acquaintances with the light milk brain fad and suffering now under osteoporosis, while none of our friends and family back in Germany (where they don't have the light milk fad) suffer under this disease.

Making milk light has however a lot of advantages for the processor - it allows them to take all the good stuff out of the milk and to sell the remaining water to the full milk price to the people dumb enough to pay for it.

Obviously - if your calorie intake is too high and your exercise regime too light, you will gain weight and have other related negative health effects ... In this case it is a good idea to eat less and better and exercise more.

Anyway - each to their own :):

I do agree however with your comment on pasteurization. It is a good idea unless you can control the cow and milkshed hygiene (which is difficult unless you milk your own cow). We can :):

Simple answer to your write up ....If u cant have your own cows and surety about their hygienic surroundings then its better to drink pasteurised or boiled milk

I am not fully sure that Calcium is depleted in trying to make it light but yes it may have an effect on its absorption by human body ...but normal people get equivalent or more amounts of saturated fats from other sources to help absorption of Calcium from light milk or fat depleted milk not calcium depleted milk !!

[Beagle]

P

Making milk light has however a lot of advantages for the processor - it allows them to take all the good stuff out of the milk and to sell the remaining water to the full milk price to the people dumb enough to pay for it.

Obviously - if your calorie intake is too high and your exercise regime too light, you will gain weight and have other related negative health effects ... In this case it is a good idea to eat less and better and exercise more.

Anyway - each to their own :):

I do agree however with your comment on pasteurization. It is a good idea unless you can control the cow and milkshed hygiene (which is difficult unless you milk your own cow). We can :):

The age old problem though mate, is this is easier said than done which is why what little milk I drink these days is lite blue. I take PAZ calcium supplements to sure up my calcium intake.

[Joshuatree]

BP
"Some changed now to real milk, but I recon it might be too late for them ... if your bones are porous, you can't really refill them."

Aclasta infusions are one way of strengthening bones for those in the high risk fracture zone..Lots of research going on to those with bone loss,a big problem.

Results—Week 96



Percent changes in bone density of the spine were as follows:


dietary counselling – minus 2%
one dose of zoledronate + dietary counselling – plus 5%
two doses of zoledronate + dietary counselling – plus 8%

[Joshuatree]

I see a certain previous poster (with most of his funds in ATM) on here up to his usual tricks pumping it on H/C, in his element there. Desperado by the Eagles comes to mind. Heres hoping hes right for all holders.ATM a very small holding for me atp.

[LEMON]

https://switzer.com.au/the-experts/switzer-tv/buy-or-sell-these-hot-stocks-tyro-z1p-a2m-elo-eml-twe-nxt-and-mp1/

[LEMON]

2.14 minutes onwards.

&

19.12 minutes onwards

[Balance]

2.14 minutes onwards.

&

19.12 minutes onwards

Sound advice given by the lady from 19.12 minutes:

A2M is on a earnings downgrade cycle

Avoid stocks where earnings momentum is negative along with the share price action

Until there is a clear path back to growth

[LEMON]

Yes, I also agree. I liked her input. Was a more logical call.

[TLM54]

Everyone has their own convictions and strategy. we dont need to justify our strategy to anyone but ourselves.

The current chart structure is still bearish. the price action yesterday confirmed the triangle or wedge trading pattern, which indicates a probability of a bearish continuation. if the supporting trend line breaks, we could see a price target as low as $9.10 in the next trading range.

We've broken down from the triangle pattern (on 10th of Feb) but the good news is we're on the other side of the previous substantial resistance trend, which is acting as support for the time being. the SP will break down fast if ATM breaks below this support.

10.50 was apparently significant enough to bounce off last time it hit that level but i don't see a lot of support there for a bounce, especially given we're approaching a bearish crossover in the MACD. 10.14 would be my short term target, which was support in a previous consolidation range.

9.10 target is still on chart too.

hope they can pull a rabbit out of a hat at the earnings meetings coz maintaining current guidance is not gonna break this structure.

12308

[Balance]

https://www.shortman.com.au/stock?q=A2M

Meanwhile, shorters continue to cover - providing short term sp support.

They are playing it right - selling high and now, buying back low to lock in profits.

So who is selling to them?

[bull....]

https://www.shortman.com.au/stock?q=A2M

Meanwhile, shorters continue to cover - providing short term sp support.

They are playing it right - selling high and now, buying back low to lock in profits.

So who is selling to them?

kingfish have reduced there position considerably .... lost the faith obviously

[Beagle]

12309

6 month chart - Picture says 1000 words.

[Biscuit]

..... Picture says 1000 words.

or just three "watch out below!"

[see weed]

or just three "watch out below!"
Yes, we hit a new low for the year today of $10.41c but is back up 36c from there and in the green for a change:).

[bull....]

$10 in aus the line in the sand eh

$10 tested yesterday , rejected today .... timber

[Gregnz]

$10 tested yesterday , rejected today .... timber

Your screen frozen Bull? Looks to me like it closed higher again today?

[Ruby]

Greg,I did notice it was very quiet in here today...can it be that we have had a couple green days perchance?
Muttly & unbalanced & BS haven't popped in at all lol...

[Gregnz]

Greg,I did notice it was very quiet in here today...can it be that we have had a couple green days perchance?
Muttly & unbalanced & BS haven't popped in at all lol...

yep, they usually only appear on the red days.

[Baa_Baa]

Very encouraging last two candles on the daily chart suggesting confidence returning. Early days though. Personally I’d expect to see more shorts closing their positions going into results next Thursday, but for that to happen they need some to sell to them, so swings and roundabouts. Maybe just nice to have a couple of days of positive price action for a change.

[Balance]

Very encouraging last two candles on the daily chart suggesting confidence returning. Early days though. Personally I’d expect to see more shorts closing their positions going into results next Thursday, but for that to happen they need some to sell to them, so swings and roundabouts. Maybe just nice to have a couple of days of positive price action for a change.

https://www.shortman.com.au/stock?q=A2M

Shorters continue to cover - providing short term price support.

Interesting week ahead.

[porkandpuha]

https://businessdesk.co.nz/article/primary-sector/chinese-demand-sees-dairy-prices-hit-7-year-high

[Baa_Baa]

https://www.shortman.com.au/stock?q=A2M

Shorters continue to cover - providing short term price support.

Interesting week ahead.

A simple mind might look at the current situation as, about 6% of punters would like to see the price go down, whereas 93% would prefer the price to start recovering and go up. I’m happy to be a simple mind and open to the view that the company know they’ve goofed on the recent reporting and need to restore investor confidence, there’s a shipload of goodwill in current insto’s that will be wanting to see the turnaround. No pressure A2 and the new CEO. 😅

[Leftfield]

Crikey two up days in a row. Perhaps there is life in this old dog yet.

Interesting times.

[Balance]

Crikey two up days in a row. Perhaps there is life in this old dog yet.

Interesting times.

Oh wow! Up 2c on ASX already!

Another green day in the making - so could be 3 days in a row!

Must be like the Japanese water torture effect - drip, drip, drip on the forehead and when the tap is turned off momentarily, the relief is euphoric?

[Balance]

A simple mind might look at the current situation as, about 6% of punters would like to see the price go down, whereas 93% would prefer the price to start recovering and go up. I’m happy to be a simple mind and open to the view that the company know they’ve goofed on the recent reporting and need to restore investor confidence, there’s a shipload of goodwill in current insto’s that will be wanting to see the turnaround. No pressure A2 and the new CEO. ��

So what would a simple mind make out of the 4% of punters at the beginning of Aug 2020 who would like the sp to go down vs the 96% who would prefer the sp to go up?

That's before the executives and directors started selling big lumps of their shares near the top?

Then there's the 7% before the first profit downgrade vs the 93%.

And the 8% before the second downgrade?

[Leftfield]

Must be like the Japanese water torture effect - drip, drip, drip on the forehead and when the tap is turned off momentarily, the relief is euphoric?

Even at today’s depressed SP some of us up over 5000%.. Not to mention 50% of holdings already banked. Remainder free held. ATM has provided my portfolio over 100 % returns for over 8 yrs and made my retirement a dream..

If this is torture in your eyes then I’m a sucker for punishment and happy to play the long game. JMHO..

[Balance]

Even at today’s depressed SP some of us up over 5000%.. Not to mention 50% of holdings already banked. Remainder free held. ATM has provided my portfolio over 100 % returns for over 8 yrs and made my retirement a dream..

If this is torture in your eyes then I’m a sucker for punishment and happy to play the long game. JMHO..

LF, I am giving my objective view of the psychology of what's happening with ATM shares, its shareholders and the shorters.

It's a fascinating study of hope, fear, greed and other emotions at play.

The one observation I would pass on to all ATM shareholders is - Never get emotional with the stockmarket and with any stock - emotion clouds judgement.

When a poster/shareholder wrote that a 30% profit downgrade is not bad, you know that reason has gone out the window and the poster is in total denial.

[Leftfield]

Balance objective isn’t a word I would use to describe most of your posting. :eek2:

That said, fear not for me....

I’ve happily gone against your rhetoric before and have done well out of it..PLX/PX1 and ATM..

Not that I expect you to understand my happily biased ways... all dogs can have their day... and in my long term view it is too early to write ATM off yet..

[Balance]

Balance objective isn’t a word I would use to describe most of your posting. :eek2:

That said, fear not for me....

I’ve happily gone against your rhetoric before and have done well out of it..PLX/PX1 and ATM..

Not that I expect you to understand my happily biased ways... all dogs can have their day... and in my long term view it is too early to write ATM off yet..

Point to one of my postings which is not an objective assessment of ATM?

Can't help it if you are all so emotionally wound up with the stock that you only want to read glowing or positive postings!

And who is writing ATM off? Yet another example of an emotionally charged comment, surely!

[Leftfield]

Good on you Balance. Nice to see you haven’t written ATM off..

[Balance]

Good on you Balance. Nice to see you haven’t written ATM off..

Again, point to any postings here from anyone who has written ATM off.

You won't find one because it exists only in the minds of emotionally besotted attached holders imo.

It's always been a question of price as to what ATM is worth.

[Leftfield]

Better things to do thanks Balance. Now off to enjoy more of the sun. Cheers.

[Ronnie]

Even at today’s depressed SP some of us up over 5000%.. Not to mention 50% of holdings already banked. Remainder free held. ATM has provided my portfolio over 100 % returns for over 8 yrs and made my retirement a dream..

If this is torture in your eyes then I’m a sucker for punishment and happy to play the long game. JMHO..

This is lovely and I am genuinely happy for you - however spare a small though for those of us that heard about them early on, didn't get round to investing until last year and now are down by -49%. :confused::scared:;)

[Leftfield]

Ronnie you are not unique in your position. Most of us have been in similar situations.

Think XRO which fell from $40 to $13 now up around $150 when I last looked. Where do you see ATM in 5 or 10 yrs?

How we face such challenges defines us as investors. I wish you well and just wanted to remind some people that there are other longer term viewpoints and strategies..

As always DYOR and take responsibility for your own decisions.

[Balance]

Better things to do thanks Balance. Now off to enjoy more of the sun. Cheers.

Could not find any.

Thought so.

[Entrep]

Reading through this thread, the biggest issue going forward, once COVID and Daigou is sorted out, is that a ton of new competitors selling A2 milk is set to hit the market?

[bull....]

and fonterra taught the chinese farm management before they were sent packing. can see all those a2 cows running around china one day

[Beagle]

Again, point to any postings here from anyone who has written ATM off.

You won't find one because it exists only in the minds of emotionally besotted attached holders imo.

It's always been a question of price as to what ATM is worth.


Reading through this thread, the biggest issue going forward, once COVID and Daigou is sorted out, is that a ton of new competitors selling A2 milk is set to hit the market?

Those two posts hit the nail directly on the head !

[Baa_Baa]

Those two posts hit the nail directly on the head !

Ha ha, I thought you'd given up posting on threads that you don't own any shares in. The thread police will be paying you a visit shortly .. Lol. Hang on, maybe you do own some now?

:eek2:

[Habits]

Again, point to any postings here from anyone who has written ATM off.

You won't find one because it exists only in the minds of emotionally besotted attached holders imo.

It's always been a question of price as to what ATM is worth.

Well... I was encouraged to stay in, the s/price has tumbled since. Im not blaming anyone its just how it is. Not sure for how much longer I can stay shivering with a cold wind whistling past. Or maybe thats the sound of a falling SP

[dreamcatcher]

APT was $8.01 less then one year ago now $150
Z1P under $2 went to $10.5 fell back down now $12
HGH 91c did you buy
OCA 40c did you buy
HLG $1.80 did you buy
TWE up $1.77 today on a sniff of promise
ATM $10.82 did you buy
sold BHP $31.00 less then 6 months ago now $48.50
sold PPH 5.20 went up past $10 ............can fill a page this is the share market


I hold a2 because I believe company has promising future IT GOES UP AND DOWN can't hack it GET OUT
ARE a2 holders in Love with the stock -- same as holders of SKC FBU SUM OCA HLG APT FPH HGH AIR...lot of these dogs also went down heaps now recovering

[Balance]

APT was $8.01 less then one year ago now $150
Z1P under $2 went to $10.5 fell back down now $12
HGH 91c did you buy
OCA 40c did you buy
HLG $1.80 did you buy
TWE up $1.77 today on a sniff of promise
ATM $10.82 did you buy
sold BHP $31.00 less then 6 months ago now $48.50
sold PPH 5.20 went up past $10 ............can fill a page this is the share market


I hold a2 because I believe company has promising future IT GOES UP AND DOWN can't hack it GET OUT
ARE a2 holders in Love with the stock -- same as holders of SKC FBU SUM OCA HLG APT FPH HGH AIR...lot of these dogs also went down heaps now recovering

Anyone else see the fatal analytical flaw in the posting above?

[Ronnie]

Ronnie you are not unique in your position. Most of us have been in similar situations.

Think XRO which fell from $40 to $13 now up around $150 when I last looked. Where do you see ATM in 5 or 10 yrs?

How we face such challenges defines us as investors. I wish you well and just wanted to remind some people that there are other longer term viewpoints and strategies..

As always DYOR and take responsibility for your own decisions.

Hopefully in 5-10 years ATM will at least be breaking even for me. :D :eek2: But preferably up 100% from what I purchased for. Just kicking myself for not getting into it years ago as I don't drink milk!

The rest of my portfolio (well, except for CAV) is in the green and healthily so. It is funny how seeing one in the red irks.

[Balance]

Hopefully in 5-10 years ATM will at least be breaking even for me. :D :eek2: But preferably up 100% from what I purchased for. Just kicking myself for not getting into it years ago as I don't drink milk!

The rest of my portfolio (well, except for CAV) is in the green and healthily so. It is funny how seeing one in the red irks.

It is called the red wine stain effect - you have a lovely valuable piece of spotless Persian rug and there’s a red spot on it. Your eyes cannot but pick it up everytime you look at the rug because it spoils the overall look and feel of the rug.

You know what to do in that case right?

[dreamcatcher]

Anyone else see the fatal analytical flaw in the posting above?

The fatal flaw @Balance is "You didn't buy any a2 three years ago around $3"

[Habits]

Anyone else see the fatal analytical flaw in the posting above?

Its also possible to be blessed with timely insight yet not have the capital available. .. :D

[bull....]

The fatal flaw @Balance is "You didn't buy any a2 three years ago around $3"

lol , i think balance must be a holder now

[Balance]

The fatal flaw @Balance is "You didn't buy any a2 three years ago around $3"

I bought at 60c and sold out at $16.75.

Try again to see your fatal flaw - you are not even close.

[Getty]

It is called the red wine stain effect - you have a lovely valuable piece of spotless Persian rug and there’s a red spot on it. Your eyes cannot but pick it up everytime you look at the rug because it spoils the overall look and feel of the rug.

You know what to do in that case right?

Yep, buy a new wig.

[waikare]

Anyone else see the fatal analytical flaw in the posting above?

Of all the stocks quoted these figure quoted were sometime ago, whereas ATM $10.92 low was as recent as Jan. this year.

[dreamcatcher]

I bought at 60c and sold out at $16.75.

Try again to see your fatal flaw - you are not even close.

Well done on your profit.

My strategy sell a few every year

[Beagle]

I can sense a doggy blindfold taste test coming for this hound in the near future. I must get Mrs Beagle to arrange several small samples of milk, A2M lite, Anchor lite, Almond, Goat, Oat, and Soy Milk. Got to be something in there I like because to be honest I find my inclination to drink milk declining quite significantly in recent times. Back to things that rhyme with goat and oat, one thing that really worries me going forward for ATM is the apparent lack of any moat. For years they talked up the value of their IP and the protection it accorded them but its clear with the passage of time these claims had no basis in law or fact whatsoever. It makes me wonder about the integrity of the claims they make about "it just makes you feel better".

The second thing that really worries me is they are so heavily dependent on China. The inherent high level of ongoing (and rising in my opinion), geopolitical and trade risk that goes with that makes me feel quite uncomfortable about getting back into this stock in any meaningful way.

https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/THE-A2-MILK-COMPANY-LIMIT-11384022/?type_recherche=rapide&mots=ATM Market screener has them on a FY21 PE of 28.
We know one can make DCF models to come up with almost any valuation you like dependent on one's assumptions regarding the future growth rate, (which lets all be honest is anyone's guess).

For my money I will stick with my model which has worked very well for me. I take a no growth PE which is currently 11 and will pay 1 PE more for every 1% growth rate I think a company can =grow at on average for the next 10 years.

Running this filter over ATM even after the ~ 50% correction on a forward PE of 28 this suggests to me that for me to be interested in ATM (leaving aside geopolitical and trade risks for a minute), I would need to feel they can grow eps at a compound average rate of 17% per annum for the next decade. My best guess, (and that's all it is), is they are unlikely to grow eps at that rate on average.

I think the Chinese brands are going to continue to gain more traction and the long term prognosis for trade protectionism is worrisome.
I think their years of fast growth are behind them and as they fail my filter I am still happy to sit on the sidelines notwithstanding the ~ 50% correction in the last 7-8 months.
Quite apart from any attempt to have a guess at the average future growth rate I can't help noticing that the chart still looks really horrible. I think anyone buying in the current downtrend is very "brave" Trying to pick a bottom in a downtrend is a messy business that usually end badly.

Better to wait for a confirmed TA signal of a new uptrend and buy into upwards momentum, a far less risky proposition (Thanks to KW, Baa Baa, Hoop and others for sharing your TA skills with us).


Ha ha, I thought you'd given up posting on threads that you don't own any shares in. The thread police will be paying you a visit shortly .. Lol. Hang on, maybe you do own some now?

:eek2:

Morbid fascination about what might be a good entry point (seeing as I made huge gains in previous years)

Repost of last week. I honestly think its anyone's guess what their future growth rate is, (so TA is your best friend, bet you never thought I'd say that) ;) BUT here is what we know for an absolute fact.
In years gone by ATM was on a forward PE of around 30 and it was growing really really fast and there was little if any doubt that the growth would continue at a very fast rate.
It is currently on a forward PE of a very similar forward metric, growth has really slowed since I sold out at $13 about 3 years ago and there is massive fundamental uncertainty about the future growth rate, the impact of far more widespread proliferation of alternative A2 milk products and a far worse geopolitical and trade protectionism environment as well as questions about how long Covid will be problematic.

This makes no sense whatsoever to me that the shares are currently on a forward PE of 28.7, (much the same as when things looked much more attractive) given how radically the growth outlook, (and other risks) has changed compared to how it looked three years ago..

If I had to take a wild stab at what I though might be some sort of guess at their future maintainable average growth late I'd probably pick a high single digit number like 8 or 9% and that suggests to me based on my own valuation formula where I try and find GARP stocks (growth at a reasonable price) on 1 PE extra above 11 for every percentage point of sustainable growth a fair forward PE for ATM for me to invest is 20 times FY21 estimated earnings. https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/THE-A2-MILK-COMPANY-LIMIT-11384022/financials/
Brokers currently have FY21 average estimate at 38 cents per share. My methodology for finding GARP stocks suggests $7.60 might be an opportune entry point although I personally think the ol downgrades come in three's has a lot of credibility so look out next week !

I don't think anyone's really especially interested in what gains people have made in the past with this stock, (plenty of Tesla zealots do that on overseas threads), what people are really interested in is whether this share is good value now or not ? My 2 cents is I see it continuing to underperform the market going forward, (after the last 3 years of woeful underperformance there could very easily be several more), and the PE coming back to something more like what Danone trades at, late teens - 20.

The growth rate has changed dramatically compared to the rate is was growing at. Some people get that, others think the growth will come back the way it was. Only time will tell who's right and who is wrong. I remain happy to watch this circus from the sidelines for now. Going forward I see better ways of making money with less risk than this, (unless the PE comes down quite a lot to reflect the current circumstances and geopolitical risk).

[James108]

Hey beagle I wonder what the P/E ratio would be if you net out cash and treat the loss making US as seperate?

They can always stop the US part of the business, which they might do... unless they think it will contribute to future growth? Oooof in that case future growth would be huge!

Also does a company with a high return on equity (and no debt, therefore future growth is ‘cheap’) deserve a higher P/E ratio than another company with a much lower ROE? Hmm something to think about...

Not convinced by the bull or the bear case for this at the moment. I do hold a small amount though (less than their weighting on nzx50) still slightly in green.

[winner69]

Hey guys, no need to question beagles motives for his current deep interest in A2

He knows that when ATM share price goes up HLG often goes down .....and when HLG goes down ATM goes up

Maybe he is just positioning himself for the time that he bails from HLG ....maybe sooner than later ;):t_up::ohmy:

[Beagle]

Hi James I think that's been debated a fair bit already. They pulled out of the U.K. because it didn't work so yeah, with the losses in the US another pullout shouldn't shock anyone.
Its clear they need that cash to grow the brand so attempts to back out cash don't cut the mustard with me and I really dislike any attempt at creativity like that although I have used it once on HLG but it's not a really pertinent factor in how I go about assessing a share, other than to note HLG are in an excellent position to pay huge dividends going forward and ATM are in a strong financial position to continue pursuing their growth aspirations.

The model is changing with their own investment in processing capabilities and that might be the thin edge of the wedge and we may see much more of that going forward, (a complete divorce from Synlait in the years to come wouldn't surprise me), so previous high ROE will likely change going forward.

For me it all comes back to growth and with the far more widespread proliferation of other brands and the tendency towards trade protectionism and the Chinese communist party extoling the virtues of buy Chinese made, the future growth trajectory looks far more clouded than it has in years past.

Others will have a different view of the future and that's fine. That's how I see it with my Beagle nose tuned up to long range food sniffing mode :) Easier feeds to be found going forward, elsewhere, simple as that.

No winner...HLG a classic free growth stock, the ones I like the most where you pay a no growth forward PE of 11 for a company with good growth...they're the best type of stocks of all where growth is FREE !! Never let it be said the NZX doesn't offer up the occasional free lunch where we can all be Winners ;)

[Ronnie]

It is called the red wine stain effect - you have a lovely valuable piece of spotless Persian rug and there’s a red spot on it. Your eyes cannot but pick it up everytime you look at the rug because it spoils the overall look and feel of the rug.

You know what to do in that case right?

I hadn't heard of that term before - red wine effect. Thank you.

What to do? Pour white wine on it? Get a carpet cleaner? Buy new rug? Quit looking at the rug?

[Gregnz]

I hadn't heard of that term before - red wine effect. Thank you.

What to do? Pour white wine on it? Get a carpet cleaner? Buy new rug? Quit looking at the rug?

Just use your eventual profits from buying A2 to replace the entire house, rug included. :t_up:

[Balance]

Of all the stocks quoted these figure quoted were sometime ago, whereas ATM $10.92 low was as recent as Jan. this year.

Yup, and all the other stocks were aggressively sold down indescriminately due to the Covid market melt-down at that time rather than any company specific issue.

[xp04]

Remember when we both bought into this at the bottom of the last cycle in August 2016 at $2.70? Profit we were looking for in regard to FY17 was $20m which gave eps of 33.5 cps (PE of just 8) and we were drawn by the projected 15% gross dividend yield.

How the market thinks its now worth $4.15 with the currency about 10 cents south of where it was in 2016 and all the ongoing uncertainty of how this will recover from Covid 19 and over how many years is a mystery to me. Even if this was presently $2.70 I would suggest our original purchase on those metrics contained far less risk.

I think the point is this only looks cheap to those who are referencing a $6 price viewpoint. If one changes their frame of reference this looks super expensive for the risks involved.

Maybe they get back to earning $20m in FY22, maybe its FY23 but in the meantime ? How many years before we see profit back at where it was in FY19 ?

Look at this Beale’s post from HLG forum which was posted less than a year ago. And look at him now dancing as a cheerleader about the same company.

[Beagle]

.........................

[Balance]

Look at this Beale’s post from HLG forum which was posted less than a year ago. And look at him now dancing as a cheerleader about the same company.

And to Beagle’s credit, he did not remain wedded to that view and is prepared to change his view as events unfold.

Let's review ATM in the last 6 months :

Executives dumping stock after company stated everything was fine,

2 downgrades in quick succession

&

key executives leaving.

Adverse events unfold but the emotionally besotted holders hang onto their love affair with the stock, and believe that it's all fine.

Sp down 50%.

[Louisphan]

Look at this Beale’s post from HLG forum which was posted less than a year ago. And look at him now dancing as a cheerleader about the same company.
You can't expect people always right especially in stock trading bro. He may be wrong about ATM but he didn't wrong when persuaded sharetrader' members buying HLG at that time.

[bull....]

Look at this Beale’s post from HLG forum which was posted less than a year ago. And look at him now dancing as a cheerleader about the same company.

you havnt worked out beagles a trader ?

[Balance]

you havnt worked out beagles a trader ?

Hope he has figured you out!

[Gregnz]

We live in a dynamically changing world, welcome to the real world. Very disingenuous of you to pick a previous post in the middle of the Covid crisis with no reference to the date of the post.
Being able to read the sometimes dramatically changing risk - reward environment of being an investor in any particular company is a vital aspect to staying ahead of the market, in my opinion. That is precisely why I sold ATM 3 years ago for $13.

Reminds me of a poster on HC called Moosie who digs up posts from years ago, collates them all together, the scum of the earth type.
Buying at the bottom of the Covid drop was the best thing I ever did. There was a huge transfer of wealth when that happened, and in many cases that transfer of wealth was into the hands of many people with no clue of investing, reading charts, or doing fundamental/technical analysis. Anyone relying on charts or technical analysis then would have been selling. I know many young friends who made more than their yearly salary just by buying when 'expert' investors were indiscriminately selling during covid. They simply bought companies they liked, or were customers of, and many are far wealthier now as a result.

[bull....]

mentioned a number of times $10 aus was the line in the sand. its rallying of there now maybe we test resistance at 10.90 which was previous high of $10

[Baa_Baa]

Technical breakout (up) from the short term descending wedge. :) will it stick. Already .90c up from recent lows. Big volume on ASX, looks like some short covering.

[Balance]

Technical breakout (up) from the short term descending wedge. :) will it stick. Already .90c up from recent lows. Big volume on ASX, looks like some short covering.

https://www.shortman.com.au/stock?q=A2M

Shorters are indeed continuing to lock in gains by covering, providing short term sp support.

[xp04]

You can't expect people always right especially in stock trading bro. He may be wrong about ATM but he didn't wrong when persuaded sharetrader' members buying HLG at that time.

I remember he was pursuing shareholders to sell HLG at the time :)

[xp04]

We live in a dynamically changing world, welcome to the real world. Very disingenuous of you to pick a previous post in the middle of the Covid crisis with no reference to the date of the post.
Being able to read the sometimes dramatically changing risk - reward environment of being an investor in any particular company is a vital aspect to staying ahead of the market, in my opinion. That is precisely why I sold ATM 3 years ago for $13.

No kidding. I can pick some other stocks and dates as well where you change your mind quicker than wind direction in Auckland. How about WHS recently, HGH - three times in the last year, ZEL... I remember you promised special divis from AIR this year or was that next year :)

[Gregnz]

https://www.shortman.com.au/stock?q=A2M

Shorters are indeed continuing to lock in gains by covering, providing short term sp support.

Still approx 47.5 million shares shorted. Just imagine if the HY adds to a further improvement in the SP.
Given the recent positive movement the past few days, possibly due to short covering, those who didn’t close out their positions at recent lows have already potentially missed out on a significant chunk of profit if they have to buy back higher or at the current SP.

[Balance]

Still approx 47.5 million shares shorted. Just imagine if the HY adds to a further improvement in the SP.
Given the recent positive movement the past few days, possibly due to short covering, those who didn’t close out their positions at recent lows have already potentially missed out on a significant chunk of profit if they have to buy back higher or at the current SP.

Hence, the move by shorters to lock in some of their gains and get ready for another round.

[dreamcatcher]

China ban affected TWE up $1.77 yesterday with their report suggesting we don't need China
Z1P less then one month ago SP still had a 5 in front possibly next Thur have a 25
Possibly a2 will bounce next week? no idea if doesn't may top up again or continue holding like heaps of others. The mountain of shorts reckon so

My point is you have to buy sometime and not everyone uses tea leaves. Time in market generally pays dividends. Did we anticipate Covid meltdown, Australia/China conflict, USA presidential change, near zero interest rates, world awash with free money, property BOOM. Have always used money from a2 sales to reinvest into shares I thought showed promise that panic stricken traders/investors sold down.

[xp04]

you havnt worked out beagles a trader ?

He is swing trader, who pretend to be an investor with at least 2-3 year horizon.

[Beagle]

.................................

[xp04]

Get a grip. Its a dynamic market. Some people add nothing but antagonism to this forum and not a skerrick of useful analysis...

Dynamic, eh? Good to know :)

[Beagle]

.........................

[alokdhir]

He is swing trader, who pretend to be an investor with at least 2-3 year horizon.

Try KFL forum ...U will find a recent change of heart after promoting them ( KFL warrants ) inspite of huge premium to NAV ...at that time had full intentions to exercise them on 12th March but conveniently changed mind to book profits without conversion citing premium to NAV not good anymore...Now BRM warrants fan with many time stated objective of converting ...pretty sure wont happen ...lol

Trading is good but misrepresenting your intentions is not that good ...lol

[bull....]

Hence, the move by shorters to lock in some of their gains and get ready for another round.

probably some shorts want out before results ... just in case?

[Beagle]

...edited...

[James108]

Look at this Beale’s post from HLG forum which was posted less than a year ago. And look at him now dancing as a cheerleader about the same company.

Yes, Beagle was clearly wrong about HLG but it shouldn't come as a surprise that people are wrong in this game. To his credit he does not stay wedded to a wrong opinion and is happy to jump back in.

Never blindly follow advice, always DYOR.

[Beagle]

Edited I'm not taking the bait...

[Baa_Baa]

probably some shorts want out before results ... just in case?

Yeah just like some longs want in before reporting just in case.

With limit buy and sell, you can be in on both sides at the same time. (not that that would be news to you bull....) pretty common in options trading to place spread trades but not talked about here very often

[xp04]

Try KFL forum ...U will find a recent change of heart after promoting them ( KFL warrants ) inspite of huge premium to NAV ...at that time had full intentions to exercise them on 12th March but conveniently changed mind to book profits without conversion citing premium to NAV not good anymore...Now BRM warrants fan with many time stated objective of converting ...pretty sure wont happen ...lol

Trading is good but misrepresenting your intentions is not that good ...lol

Was my point exactly. Thanks for the update :)

[Beagle]

Yes, Beagle was clearly wrong about HLG but it shouldn't come as a surprise that people are wrong in this game. To his credit he does not stay wedded to a wrong opinion and is happy to jump back in.

Never blindly follow advice, always DYOR.

I got out of basically everything prior to Covid becoming rampant as a capital preservation move...

[xp04]

Please try and contribute something worthwhile that adds to the ATM debate rather than personally attacking me.

Your opinion today is not the same as will be tomorrow. So, does not worth much.
PS. Maybe now you know how it feels when you make personal attacks on someone else.
OO

[Beagle]

Your opinion today is not the same as will be tomorrow. So, does not worth much.
PS. Maybe now you know how it feels when you make personal attacks on someone else.
OO

I consistently held ATM over many years to ride it up to $13 in early 2018 and consistently done much better elsewhere since then :p We're done.

[bull....]

Yeah just like some longs want in before reporting just in case.

With limit buy and sell, you can be in on both sides at the same time. (not that that would be news to you bull....) pretty common in options trading to place spread trades but not talked about here very often

buyers positioning as well for result .. true needs to go above 10.90 to bring in more buying / short covering in my opinion

[BlackPeter]

This is turning into a very nasty thread with personal attacks - and not even ATM related.

Any chance we could go to discussing ATM, please?

[winner69]

I consistently held ATM over many years to ride it up to $13 in early 2018 and consistently done much better elsewhere since then :p We're done.

....and you did well with the other white gold stock in Synlait as well didn’t ......before they headed down the pink path eh.

[winner69]

This is turning into a very nasty thread with personal attacks - and not even ATM related.

Any chance we could go to discussing ATM, please?


Strange times indeed ...... bull seems the only one on topic

I think A2 announcement will be pretty good and in no time at all the share price will be back to $14 plus

However when it gets to $14 the 30MA will still be less and some will have missed out.

[bull....]

....and you did well with the other white gold stock in Synlait as well didn’t ......before they headed down the pink path eh.

yes beagles done some good trading

[dreamcatcher]

....and you did well with the other white gold stock in Synlait as well didn’t ......before they headed down the pink path eh.

Hahahahaha ..........people should read the thread

[Balance]

Strange times indeed ...... bull seems the only one on topic

I think A2 announcement will be pretty good and in no time at all the share price will be back to $14 plus

However when it gets to $14 the 30MA will still be less and some will have missed out.

Expecting a new CEO to come in and update with good news after a disastrous 6 months?

Don’t think so.

[Jamie]

Yes please

Jamie
This is turning into a very nasty thread with personal attacks - and not even ATM related.

Any chance we could go to discussing ATM, please?

[HKG2301]

probably some shorts want out before results ... just in case?

As you'll well know, sometimes the shorts trigger the squeeze themselves, trying to beat others to the draw.

Now within a week of fresh company news (and associated insider leaks, which seem so common in these antipodean markets), the risk of getting caught on the wrong side of the trade is rising exponentially. Of course some shorts will be closing out their positions. Then a few more, then some more...

On your marks, get set...

:t_up:

[Rawz]

This is turning into a very nasty thread with personal attacks - and not even ATM related.

Any chance we could go to discussing ATM, please?

Well said. I will never understand why this thread makes some posters so emotional/defensive/aggressive

[Gregnz]

Expecting a new CEO to come in and update with good news after a disastrous 6 months?

Don’t think so.

I guess it depends what you consider good news?. I'm certainly not expecting bad news. I might be proven wrong, but I'd be very surprised to see a 3rd downgrade of FY guidance. It also depends what the market has 'priced in' with the current SP. Has the market priced in a 3rd downgrade, which may or may not eventuate. What happens if there isn't a 3rd downgrade? (I know the saying downgrades come in threes, but these downgrades are covid related, so rather difficult to use previous trends to determine the future when a one in one hundred year event is the cause).

The data available in the marketplace suggests a recovery is underway, corporate daigou increasing, milk powder exports from NZ to China increasing significantly, lockdowns in Australia are over for the time being, and the vaccine is now being widely distributed. Personal opinion, but the worst is behind us.

[alokdhir]

I consistently held ATM over many years to ride it up to $13 in early 2018 and consistently done much better elsewhere since then :p We're done.

Here I totally agree that U were consistently anti ATM in the last 6-8 months and was always advising its going down and down it went ...Good call here !! :t_up:

[dreamcatcher]

No reason why daigou can't buy from NZ Chinese Bonded stores via internet the whole package available including delivery GST free

[porkandpuha]

This is turning into a very nasty thread with personal attacks - and not even ATM related.

Any chance we could go to discussing ATM, please?

And this is when A2 is having a good day! :scared:

[bull....]

seems the wall st futures had a fall and a2 followed

[Ohdoyle]

I'm just going to state the obvious here. Such a dramatic rise on a down day is probably not a bad signal. Yes shorters are closing out positions but there are still plenty short to do the same.

If there is a genuine shorters race for the door then the price has some way to run.

I am a recent investor in atm. Simply because after a few years of seeming over valued it finally seemed liked it was priced ok if revenue growth continues. That plus I thought there was and still is too much short on this.

Discl. Nervous holder.

[xp04]

No reason why daigou can't buy from NZ Chinese Bonded stores via internet the whole package available including delivery GST free

Actually there is a reason. And it's the same reason why you do not see that many daigou in nz in comparison with au.

[dreamcatcher]

Actually there is a reason. And it's the same reason why you do not see that many daigou in nz in comparison with au.

Because they cannot buy from supermarkets and post but they can buy from NZ Chinese stores and deliver direct to China addresses.

All from Bonded Stores.... Wife sends plenty to rallies

[bottomfeeder]

I have a relatively small holding in ATM. But, what is stopping me buying more is that a Fonterra dairy farmer I know has A2 milk cows, so its nothing new. Also I see Anchor is advertising A2 milk on the Television. A2 Milk does not have a monopoly, and is just another player in the market now. So when Fonterra sees that it is really profitable, they will ramp up their production. How does this bode for the future profitability of ATM.

[xp04]

Because they cannot buy from supermarkets and post but they can buy from NZ Chinese stores and deliver direct to China addresses.

All from Bonded Stores.... Wife sends plenty to rallies

or you can buy online with delivery to china?
Out of curiosity, how long does it take to deliver from nz to china now?

[Gregnz]

I have a relatively small holding in ATM. But, what is stopping me buying more is that a Fonterra dairy farmer I know has A2 milk cows, so its nothing new. Also I see Anchor is advertising A2 milk on the Television. A2 Milk does not have a monopoly, and is just another player in the market now. So when Fonterra sees that it is really profitable, they will ramp up their production. How does this bode for the future profitability of ATM.

Huh? Anchor in NZ produce A2 milk for the A2 Milk Company? The television ad’s are promoting A2 Milk Company ‘A2 Milk’.

[Balance]

Huh? Anchor in NZ produce A2 milk for the A2 Milk Company? The television ad’s are promoting A2 Milk Company ‘A2 Milk’.

ATM Infant formula $44, Karicare A2 (improved formulation) $32

ATM can justify premium of 37.5%?

Only one way for price and margins to go now that new entrants have woken up to the market potential.

[Gregnz]

ATM Infant formula $44, Karicare A2 (improved formulation) $32

ATM can justify premium of 37.5%?

Only one way for price and margins to go now that new entrants have woken up to the market potential.

He’s talking about liquid milk.

[Balance]

He’s talking about liquid milk.

Understand - bottom feeder was asking about competition.

[Biscuit]

ATM Infant formula $44, Karicare A2 (improved formulation) $32

ATM can justify premium of 37.5%?

Only one way for price and margins to go now that new entrants have woken up to the market potential.

I think you will find both brands at various prices depending on whether it is for toddlers or infants and whether it is their premium or not-so-premium grades.

[Balance]

I think you will find both brands at various prices depending on whether it is for toddlers or infants and whether it is their premium or not-so-premium grades.

Like for like.

There’s only one premium A2 brand for ATM and Karicare. If there is more, I have not seen when I am at the supermarkets & Chemist Warehouse when I do my due diligence of what’s happening.

[Ruby]

be interesting to know who has access to the biggest A2 milk pool in NZ.

[Ruby]

Starting today, Fonterra is signing up farms to supply milk for The a2 Milk Company in the 2019/2020 season.











Mike Cronin, Fonterra Managing Director of Co-operative Affairs, says “Signing up New Zealand farms to significantly increase supply of high quality milk to The a2 Milk Company is a positive step forward. It clearly shows the strength of our strategic relationship, and our shared commitment to fast-track market growth and enable farmers to create additional value from their milk.”

The Co-op’s initial milk pool will be based in the Waikato around its Hautapu site and will support the production of ingredients. It is anticipated around 100 farms will be needed for next season.

Jayne Hrdlicka, The a2 Milk Company Managing Director and CEO, says “The a2 Milk Company is pleased to be making progress on our relationship with Fonterra. These farms will help support new growth areas for our company across existing and new markets. This is the next step in what we believe will be a fruitful long-term relationship with tremendous potential.”

The location of the milk pool was determined by several factors. Most importantly, the site needed the ability to manufacture the specific product in demand, produce relatively small batches and adapt easily to any product demand changes.

“While other regions were thoroughly considered, ultimately the decision must be demand-led. The ability to efficiently manufacture a range of products to meet that demand was the over-riding factor in choosing a site. As demand and product lines grow, we’ll look to expand the milk pool to enable more farmers to participate,” said Mr Cronin.

Most of the value from the relationship with The a2 Milk Company will be returned to all Co-op farmers through the dividend. Participating farms will also receive a premium for their milk.

Today’s development follows the national launch of the a2 Milk™ brand by Anchor from late September 2018.

[Gregnz]

be interesting to know who has access to the biggest A2 milk pool in NZ.

Yes. We all know who that is, hence why competition from other NZ brands will be capacity capped. That is unless the government somehow make it much easier to increase herd numbers, which I don’t think will happen.
I believe in addition to the current A2 pool, they are also planning to grow a large A2 milk
pool in Southland if the OIO give approval for the Mataura purchase.

[Balance]

He’s talking about liquid milk.

Our local Countdown sells Anchor A2 fresh milk at $6.40 vs Happy Valley Fresha A2 at $4.90.

ATM can hold the 30% premium?

Only one way for A2 milk price to go imo.

[Ruby]

Which gives the answer to many who question the benefit of the Fonterra agreement...A2M play the long game.

[dreamcatcher]

or you can buy online with delivery to china?
Out of curiosity, how long does it take to deliver from nz to china now?

Plenty of Chinese stores in Auckland selling all sorts of products but can order online delivery about 3 weeks door-2-door

[Gregnz]

Our local Countdown sells Anchor A2 fresh milk at $6.40 vs Happy Valley Fresha A2 at $4.90.

ATM can hold the 30% premium?

Time will tell. Doesn’t seem to have had much of an impact to date on denting demand for fresh milk which by all accounts is still growing. Personally I like competition, and I feel we are only tip of the ice berg with conversion over to A2. Many still don’t believe the science, only a matter of time when that happens.

[Ruby]

Lewis rd creamery milk is $7.86 equiv for 2l...go figure

[Gregnz]

Lewis rd creamery milk is $7.86 equiv for 2l...go figure

There are plenty of brands more expensive than A2, and plenty of brands cheaper. I think the market will be big enough for them all to thrive.

[RTM]

Our local Countdown sells Anchor A2 fresh milk at $6.40 vs Happy Valley Fresha A2 at $4.90.

ATM can hold the 30% premium?

Only one way for A2 milk price to go imo.

I doubt it and that is the reason I have not been brave enough to buy into ATM. My reasoning follows:
We tried it for 2-3 months. Yes, nice milk, but no discernible difference to our health, digestion etc.
The way I see it is....if it is extra good for you....everyone will switch their cows over to A2 over time.
No advantage to anyone.
If there is no difference...then things will continue more or less as now and some "generic cow" farmers may have a cost advantage. So then its going to come back to a branding play on a commodity product. I was never confident enough they would win that war...they aren't making iPhones. Hence I haven't invested there.

[Gregnz]

I doubt it and that is the reason I have not been brave enough to buy into ATM. My reasoning follows:
We tried it for 2-3 months. Yes, nice milk, but no discernible difference to our health, digestion etc.
The way I see it is....if it is extra good for you....everyone will switch their cows over to A2 over time.
No advantage to anyone.
If there is no difference...then things will continue more or less as now and some "generic cow" farmers may have a cost advantage. So then its going to come back to a branding play on a commodity product. I was never confident enough they would win that war...they aren't making iPhones. Hence I haven't invested there.

I do notice the difference, I can’t drink normal milk without an adverse reaction. That’s probably partly the reason I chose to invest. I think you’ll find across the population, some notice the difference and some don’t. Seems a large chunk of the Asian population are in the same boat as me, without taking into account some of the science behind why A2 milk is chosen by Chinese families to feed their newborn (diabetes etc).

In addition, from what I have read, almost the entire Indian population drink some form of A2 milk. Surely there has to be demand for the product when the worlds two most populated countries primarily drink a form of A2 milk.

[bull....]

notice the bots started selling when the thread started talking about milk lol

[dreamcatcher]

Must have control of milk pool but seems a2 gearing up for an assault on USA IF a1 herds been converted to a2 takes time so eventually be less a1 herds.

Will ask the missus how much we pay for IF delivered. Chinese mothers don't care about price which is still cheaper then buying local but have the added safety foreign brands with no tampering. Aptamil and a2 are most popular believe both product made in NZ.

For anybody interested top 2 current box of 6 chinese door2door delivery from NZ bonded stores

a2 platinum3 $219

Aptamil gold3 $153

[Balance]

Must have control of milk pool but seems a2 gearing up for an assault on USA IF a1 herds been converted to a2 takes time so eventually be less a1 herds.

Will ask the missus how much we pay for IF delivered. Chinese mothers don't care about price which is still cheaper then buying local but have the added safety foreign brands with no tampering. Aptamil and a2 are most popular believe both product made in NZ.

For anybody interested top 2 current box of 6 chinese door2door delivery from NZ bonded stores

a2 platinum3 $219

Aptamil gold3 $153

Checking A2 IF prices yesterday at the supermarket :

Karicare A2 0-6 months $29.95 (Danone)

S26 Ultima Pro A2 0-6 months $34.49 (Nestle)

A2 Platinum 0-6 months $44.00

47% premium against Karicare & 27% premium against S26 sustainable?

[JimmyTrade]

Checking A2 IF prices yesterday at the supermarket :

Karicare A2 0-6 months $29.95 (Danone)

S26 Ultima Pro A2 0-6 months $34.49 (Nestle)

A2 Platinum 0-6 months $44.00

47% premium against Karicare & 27% premium against S26 sustainable?

I think the only reason you would try A2 is if your child is gets Colic or constipation from other formulas.

I wouldn’t think the band labelling would be the deciding factor on the brand used, for example I myself purchase Karicare and don’t see the value in the premium price on A2 brand.

That said I am a shareholder.... 🤔

[silu]

fwiw I haven't drunk fresh milk until I tried A2. I never had too many huge issues with normal milk but it gave me a bit of tummy rumble that were strong enough wanting to stay close to a restroom after a flat white. With A2 milk I don't experience a single issue. I'm even drinking it now daily with my morning smoothie instead of water. One reason why I stay on as a shareholder.

[mfd]

I think the only reason you would try A2 is if your child is gets Colic or constipation from other formulas.

I wouldn’t think the band labelling would be the deciding factor on the brand used, for example I myself purchase Karicare and don’t see the value in the premium price on A2 brand.

That said I am a shareholder.... 🤔

Personally, I wouldn't give my child milk that wasn't A2, given the strong epidemiological links between A1 milk consumption and diabetes, autism and other inflammatory disease.

[Gregnz]

Checking A2 IF prices yesterday at the supermarket :

Karicare A2 0-6 months $29.95 (Danone)

S26 Ultima Pro A2 0-6 months $34.49 (Nestle)

A2 Platinum 0-6 months $44.00

47% premium against Karicare & 27% premium against S26 sustainable?

Has something changed recently with pricing to pique your interest? As far as I’m aware these prices have been the standard for quite some time, ie more than a year, and well before Covid came along. And A2 was still able to achieve significant growth. I’m not sure that the pricing story has changed significantly recently to suggest A2 can’t compete.

I look forward to more competition in the A2 space to further expand the overall A2 market.

[winner69]

Share price going OK today

See our Jayne got plenty of boos from rat bag Aussies at the tennis - seems to upset many wherever she goes. Good soul though

[silu]

Share price going OK today

See our Jayne got plenty of boos from rat bag Aussies at the tennis - seems to upset many wherever she goes. Good soul though

Who would have thought the Djokovic fans are rabid anti-vaccers.

[alokdhir]

Checking A2 IF prices yesterday at the supermarket :

Karicare A2 0-6 months $29.95 (Danone)

S26 Ultima Pro A2 0-6 months $34.49 (Nestle)

A2 Platinum 0-6 months $44.00

47% premium against Karicare & 27% premium against S26 sustainable?

Its very known fact that ATM has chosen to keep its premium brand image intact at the cost of loosing volumes as they see diluting brand value is a higher cost to pay then loosing some short term volume .

Volume or revenue is easy to increase when market environment improves but you cant get your premium back if u start discounting prices to match others to keep your original volumes .

So IMHO in the long run it may work out better for SP as they giving more importance to right things ...good marketing strategy for the long term

[BlackPeter]

Personally, I wouldn't give my child milk that wasn't A2, given the strong epidemiological links between A1 milk consumption and diabetes, autism and other inflammatory disease.

Is this coming from the flat earth people?

[mfd]

Is this coming from the flat earth people?

Nope. Nicely collated by Keith Woodford in his book the devil in the milk. All welcome to draw your own conclusions from the evidence, but there is plenty there for me to take a precautionary principal, especially with children. The same links between disease and milk consumption do not exist in countries with historic A2 herds, so it does appear to be specific to A1 in particular rather than milk in general.

[winner69]

is Tip Top icecream OK for me

[Gregnz]

Nope. Nicely collated by Keith Woodford in his book the devil in the milk. All welcome to draw your own conclusions from the evidence, but there is plenty there for me to take a precautionary principal, especially with children. The same links between disease and milk consumption do not exist in countries with historic A2 herds, so it does appear to be specific to A1 in particular rather than milk in general.

A great book. Have read it a few times.

[swmswm]

is Tip Top icecream OK for me

Maybe stick to Nelson's Appleby Farms ice-cream if you want to play it safe (made with A2).

[Biscuit]

Checking A2 IF prices yesterday at the supermarket :

Karicare A2 0-6 months $29.95 (Danone)

S26 Ultima Pro A2 0-6 months $34.49 (Nestle)

A2 Platinum 0-6 months $44.00

47% premium against Karicare & 27% premium against S26 sustainable?


There are always price differentials depending on brand. Check out the price per kilo of laundry powder. If you wanted to invest in a laundry powder company would you buy shares in Persil or in the manufacturer of the cheap stuff that has the same/similar ingredients? Similarly, which product do you buy, the one that is cheap or the brand you trust?

[Akane]

is Tip Top icecream OK for me

Sorry mate you're too far gone to worry about that now...... :D

[tomm]

https://www.worldguernseys.org/PageMill_Resources/Acres_Woodford.pdf

Absolutely. The challenge for everybody is that all the existing milk companies say, “Hey, how dowe actually promote A2 milk but stillmanage to sell our A1 milk during thetransition process, which will go on forquite a few years before we can get allthe herds across to A2


This groundbreaking work is the first internationally published book to examine the link between a protein in the milk we drink and a range of serious illnesses, including heart disease, Type 1 diabetes, autism, and schizophrenia.
These health problems are linked to a tiny protein fragment that is formed when we digest A1 beta-casein, a milk protein produced by many cows in the United States and northern European countries. Milk that contains A1 beta-casein is commonly known as A1 milk; milk that does not is called A2. All milk was once A2, until a genetic mutation occurred some thousands of years ago in some European cattle. A2 milk remains high in herds in much of Asia, Africa, and parts of Southern Europe. A1 milk is common in the United States, New Zealand, Australia, and Europe.
In Devil in the Milk, Keith Woodford brings together the evidence published in more than 100 scientific papers. He examines the population studies that look at the link between consumption of A1 milk and the incidence of heart disease and Type 1 diabetes; he explains the science that underpins the A1/A2 hypothesis; and he examines the research undertaken with animals and humans. The evidence is compelling: We should be switching to A2 milk.

A2 milk from selected cows is now marketed in parts of the U.S., and it is possible to convert a herd of cows producing A1 milk to cows producing A2 milk.
This is an amazing story, one that is not just about the health issues surrounding A1 milk, but also about how scientific evidence can be molded and withheld by vested interests, and how consumer choices are influenced by the interests of corporate business.

[tomm]

Exellence read to whom is sceptic about A2M .

“We also know from trials that if you feed onegroup of rabbits A1 and the other A2, then thosefed the A1 will get arterial plaque whereas the A2rabbits don’t.”

How long has the a2Corporation of New Zealand been inoperation, and how has it fared?

WOODFORD :That company wasformed about 2000, and the aim wasto commercialize A2 milk all aroundthe world. They have had the greatestsuccess in Australia. If you go into anAustralian supermarket you will find A2milk there with its special labels. You’llfind it in absolutely every supermarket.It’s still a niche product and it sells forabout double the standard milk in thosesupermarkets. It’s very expensive butis a commercially successful product,sales are growing every month. In NewZealand they haven’t managed to marketthe product quite as successfully, butI buy it from my supermarket.

https://www.worldguernseys.org/PageMill_Resources/Acres_Woodford.pdf

[sb9]

There are always price differentials depending on brand. Check out the price per kilo of laundry powder. If you wanted to invest in a laundry powder company would you buy shares in Persil or in the manufacturer of the cheap stuff that has the same/similar ingredients? Similarly, which product do you buy, the one that is cheap or the brand you trust?

Agree 100%, corporates spend huge $ on marketing and brand power. Its one thing to have good product, however if you cannot market with great brand it goes nowhere.

[swmswm]

The marketing in New Zealand has been lousy if I'm being honest. The recent ad campaign completely shied away from delivering any kind of information or feeling and ended up being completely bland and uninteresting. I was disappointed that a company with so much cash on hand could cock it up so badly with the marketing. Lucky for us the New Zealand market is basically insignificant for the company and brand awareness in China seems to be strong and favourable

[tomm]

The marketing in New Zealand has been lousy if I'm being honest. The recent ad campaign completely shied away from delivering any kind of information or feeling and ended up being completely bland and uninteresting. I was disappointed that a company with so much cash on hand could cock it up so badly with the marketing. Lucky for us the New Zealand market is basically insignificant for the company and brand awareness in China seems to be strong and favourable
That is enought to growth for now as to compare the population of China and US combined.
Read this ====> https://www.worldguernseys.org/PageMill_Resources/Acres_Woodford.pdf

[Balance]

There are always price differentials depending on brand. Check out the price per kilo of laundry powder. If you wanted to invest in a laundry powder company would you buy shares in Persil or in the manufacturer of the cheap stuff that has the same/similar ingredients? Similarly, which product do you buy, the one that is cheap or the brand you trust?

Nestle & Danone are NOT the cheap brands & their A2 IF prices are top of the end of their range.

The pertinent question is this - have these two players eroded ATM's market share but it has all been conveniently blamed on the Daigou decline in trade?

[Balance]

Has something changed recently with pricing to pique your interest? As far as I’m aware these prices have been the standard for quite some time, ie more than a year, and well before Covid came along. And A2 was still able to achieve significant growth. I’m not sure that the pricing story has changed significantly recently to suggest A2 can’t compete.

I look forward to more competition in the A2 space to further expand the overall A2 market.

Yup - prices have changed.

Do you guys seriously do some basic due diligence or do you simply take ATM's management words for everything?

[Ruby]

I guess we will have a better idea on Thurs,then we wont have to rely on guesswork and supposition.

[Balance]

I guess we will have a better idea on Thurs,then we wont have to rely on guesswork and supposition.

I personally would not count on Thursday - a new CEO, a long line of experienced staff leaving and a strategic reset in the offing.

Have a look at CVT when the new CEO took over and to his credit, he took his time to reposition the company after doing a full evaluation.

You should be very worried if the CEO comes in with all guns blazing like Jayne - then to have the board throw her long term marketing and promotion strategy out the window.

[Ruby]

As I said,I'll wait a couple of days to see what is said...I don't profess to know what will be said,guns blazing or otherwise.

[Gregnz]

Yup - prices have changed.

Do you guys seriously do some basic due diligence or do you simply take ATM's management words for everything?

What prices have changed? The prices you have quoted from your supermarket are the same prices I've seen for well over a year.

[Gregnz]

Yup - prices have changed.

Do you guys seriously do some basic due diligence or do you simply take ATM's management words for everything?

Your also lucky to be able to get Karicare A2 for $29.95. Our supermarkets in Auckland (Countdown) sell it for $35. I believe PaknSave may sell it for $31.99 but I havent seen it for $29.95. Not that it really makes any difference, as A2 has been able to grow even with these competing products.

[Gregnz]

As I said,I'll wait a couple of days to see what is said...I don't profess to know what will be said,guns blazing or otherwise.

Good idea. Thursday we will have facts vs fiction.
Some here seem to be lacking a balanced view. The fact A2 have the majority of the A2 milk pool tied up, would suggest to me that competitors are at least limited as to the volume they can produce. Its not as if the NZ Government are suddenly making it easier to increase herd numbers is it.

[Biscuit]

Nestle & Danone are NOT the cheap brands & their A2 IF prices are top of the end of their range.

The pertinent question is this - have these two players eroded ATM's market share but it has all been conveniently blamed on the Daigou decline in trade?

I'll put my money on it being due to the decline in Daigou trade! I guess we will see in coming months - that's what makes investing fun eh, none of us really know, but one of us is right and one of us is wrong.

[Balance]

I'll put my money on it being due to the decline in Daigou trade! I guess we will see in coming months - that's what makes investing fun eh, none of us really know, but one of us is right and one of us is wrong.

For someone to be right or wrong, there has to be an answer or opinion first.

I asked the question because I do not know - are you saying that the loss is purely due to the daigou trade?

And yes, by owning ATM shares you are already putting your money on your opinion. Good on you!

[Balance]

Good idea. Thursday we will have facts vs fiction.
Some here seem to be lacking a balanced view. The fact A2 have the majority of the A2 milk pool tied up, would suggest to me that competitors are at least limited as to the volume they can produce. Its not as if the NZ Government are suddenly making it easier to increase herd numbers is it.

Fiction - everything was fine and hanky dory in August & executives sold plenty of shares.

Fiction - first downgrade as being indicative of management opinion of impact of loss from daigou trade.

Fiction or fact - second downgrade as indicative of full impact being accounted for?

[Balance]

Your also lucky to be able to get Karicare A2 for $29.95. Our supermarkets in Auckland (Countdown) sell it for $35. I believe PaknSave may sell it for $31.99 but I havent seen it for $29.95. Not that it really makes any difference, as A2 has been able to grow even with these competing products.

Go to Pak n Save and you will get Karicare at $29.95 - saw with my own eyes on Sat, 20 February.

[Gregnz]

Go to Pak n Save and you will get Karicare at $29.95 - saw with my own eyes on Sat, 20 February.

Interesting that they have to place it 'on sale' to move it? $29.95 would be a sale price?

[Balance]

Interesting that they have to place it 'on sale' to move it? $29.95 would be a sale price?

Nope - normal price, not sale price.

I even checked the expiry date - Jan 2022, manufacturing date - July 2020

I noticed though that there was a sticker on the can - new formulation coming. So you are right, they could be clearing the existing stock before the new stock arrives.

[Baa_Baa]

Fiction - everything was fine and hanky dory in August & executives sold plenty of shares.

Fiction - first downgrade as being indicative of management opinion of impact of loss from daigou trade.

Fiction or fact - second downgrade as indicative of full impact being accounted for?

Fact or fiction, point is no one knows the next announce. My TA got me an opening stake with tight stops, which is above water so far. Happy to be stopped out at a small profit or average into a good result until fully loaded.

Investing need not be binary choices, like all or nothing. Putting in place controls that temper ones choices just seems sensible, especially when things could go good or bad. Taking a measured and risk mitigated approach to applying capital is pretty simple really, albeit it seems most discussion is binary outcome focused.

Not long to wait now.

[Beagle]

Interesting TA situation developing. Clean break up through the 30 day MA. (For what its worth I very seldom buy on TA alone and certainly won't be making an exception in this case).

P.S. Just saw your post Baa Baa and was wondering what you'd done. I like your common sense risk management strategy that's gone with your move. I will stay away as I have a strong dislike of the geopolitical situation, the concentration of risk in one key market, China, and think FA is anyone's guess and frankly I don't trust management after last year's fiasco. Good luck mate.

[dreamcatcher]

Seen Nestles a2 has gone nowhere and are they still making as most of the others lack traction in China.

Just to remind people there is a2 Platinum stage 1 2 3 4 believe they also have Lactoferrin which Chinese mothers prefer their babies

Apologies my bad removed a2 ebay sales ref as failed to notice AU option

[Baa_Baa]

Interesting TA situation developing. Clean break up through the 30 day MA. (For what its worth I very seldom buy on TA alone and certainly won't be making an exception in this case).

P.S. Just saw your post Baa Baa and was wondering what you'd done. I like your common sense risk management strategy that's gone with your move. I will stay away as I have a strong dislike of the geopolitical situation, the concentration of risk in one key market, China, and think FA is anyone's guess and frankly I don't trust management after last year's fiasco. Good luck mate.

Thanks Beale, its just an opening stake on TA, with almost no downside room to move. China is definitely a key market and will affect results but Australia is the largest customer to-date.

Anyway, a modest opening position on TA with tight stops might be a platform for more upside. Or I’ll be out.

Not long to wait now

[Balance]

Thanks Beale, its just an opening stake on TA, with almost no downside room to move. China is definitely a key market and will affect results but Australia is the largest customer to-date.

Anyway, a modest opening position on TA with tight stops might be a platform for more upside. Or I’ll be out.

Not long to wait now

Will be a fascinating Thursday with ATM & Comvita reporting on the same day.

Both have benefited enormously from the daigou trade.

Let’s see the results and the commentaries accompanying the results about the impact of the daigou fallout.

[Biscuit]

For someone to be right or wrong, there has to be an answer or opinion first.

I asked the question because I do not know - are you saying that the loss is purely due to the daigou trade?

And yes, by owning ATM shares you are already putting your money on your opinion. Good on you!


I'm still betting that this is a blip (admittedly a fairly big blip) primarily due to covid and the Daigou trade. Now, I don't know, and to be honest I'm a little pissed (have had to deal with a subletting situation, tenancy dispute that always leads to a bottle of wine..why can't they just pay the bloody rent..) anyway, it seems to me that people are reading too much into the recent bad news announcements (bad news comes in threes blah blah.. (it also comes in ones, twos and fours)). I'm also concerned about the fact that the company seems to have either very little handle on what is really going on or has been less than honest. Also, there is truth to the argument that their best growth is possibly behind them. Still, at this point, I'm inclined to give a quality company the benefit of the doubt.

[Habits]

Both ATM and FSF had strong day... 1 to 4 percent... dairy sector turning :t_up:

[bull....]

Will alternative proteins become the norm, and what will it mean for Aotearoa?

Seba predicts by 2035 alternative proteins will be 10 times cheaper than existing animal proteins, and will also be superior in every key attribute – “more nutritious, healthier, better tasting, and more convenient, with almost unimaginable variety”.

He says the industry's demise will occur over the next 10 to 15 years

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/124256792/will-alternative-proteins-become-the-norm-and-what-will-it-mean-for-aotearoa

[Habits]

Will alternative proteins become the norm, and what will it mean for Aotearoa?

Seba predicts by 2035 alternative proteins will be 10 times cheaper than existing animal proteins, and will also be superior in every key attribute – “more nutritious, healthier, better tasting, and more convenient, with almost unimaginable variety”.

He says the industry's demise will occur over the next 10 to 15 years

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/124256792/will-alternative-proteins-become-the-norm-and-what-will-it-mean-for-aotearoa


Yes anything is possible we might also have flying cars and not need roads in 2035. Anyone who can have an accurate prediction that far out is doing well... For now though there is a small wave to catch imo

[ratkin]

Will alternative proteins become the norm, and what will it mean for Aotearoa?

Seba predicts by 2035 alternative proteins will be 10 times cheaper than existing animal proteins, and will also be superior in every key attribute – “more nutritious, healthier, better tasting, and more convenient, with almost unimaginable variety”.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/124256792/will-alternative-proteins-become-the-norm-and-what-will-it-mean-for-aotearoa




Any decent way to invest in these alternative proteins? anyone point me in the right direction

[swmswm]

The only stock I know of is Beyond Meat (BYND) on the NASDAQ

[Balance]

Will alternative proteins become the norm, and what will it mean for Aotearoa?

Seba predicts by 2035 alternative proteins will be 10 times cheaper than existing animal proteins, and will also be superior in every key attribute – “more nutritious, healthier, better tasting, and more convenient, with almost unimaginable variety”.

He says the industry's demise will occur over the next 10 to 15 years

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/124256792/will-alternative-proteins-become-the-norm-and-what-will-it-mean-for-aotearoa





Anyone seriously think that China (NZ & Oz biggest market for primary produce) gives a monkey's arse about all that?

[tomm]

https://www.worldguernseys.org/PageMill_Resources/Acres_Woodford.pdf

[bull....]

Anyone seriously think that China (NZ & Oz biggest market for primary produce) gives a monkey's arse about all that?

you havnt done your homework balance.

One of china's goals is to be 50% plant based meat eaters in the future , they already signed deals to facilitate this happening with offshore companies.
Also how will china support its population when most of the world has gone plant based ? they wont be able to by traditional means so will have no choice but to develop along these lines as well.

the world is changing to be more emmission friendly unfortunately for NZ our best hope for the ag sector is as a niche player competiing against cheaper potentially better alternatives

[Biscuit]

..... unfortunately for NZ our best hope for the ag sector is as a niche player competiing against cheaper potentially better alternatives

Unfortunately for NZ, under that scenario, being the niche player would also be the best hope of every other beef exporting nation, so wouldn't really be a viable niche.

[Balance]

you havnt done your homework balance.

One of china's goals is to be 50% plant based meat eaters in the future , they already signed deals to facilitate this happening with offshore companies.
Also how will china support its population when most of the world has gone plant based ? they wont be able to by traditional means so will have no choice but to develop along these lines as well.

the world is changing to be more emmission friendly unfortunately for NZ our best hope for the ag sector is as a niche player competiing against cheaper potentially better alternatives

Of course China will wax lyrical about its goal but its population as a whole are still meat deprived - meat consumption per capita is still way below that of Western nations.

Eg. Half of that of USA.

So meat consumption will continue to grow and nothing changes as far as NZ & Oz are concerned imo.

Plus heck, we are far closer to the ever growing Asian markets than the rainforest burning and clearing South American meat producers will ever be.

[Biscuit]

Meat-in-a-lab is certainly an existential risk for NZ-as-we-know-it. On the other hand, GMOs were supposed to revolutionize farming and look where that led - basically nowhere for the most part.

[bull....]

Will alternative proteins become the norm, and what will it mean for Aotearoa?

Seba predicts by 2035 alternative proteins will be 10 times cheaper than existing animal proteins, and will also be superior in every key attribute – “more nutritious, healthier, better tasting, and more convenient, with almost unimaginable variety”.

He says the industry's demise will occur over the next 10 to 15 years

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/124256792/will-alternative-proteins-become-the-norm-and-what-will-it-mean-for-aotearoa


I think this guy in the article is basing his predictions on this report ( which i dont think was reference in the story )

By 2030, the number of cows in the U.S. will have fallen by 50% and the cattle farming industry will be all but bankrupt. All other livestock industries will suffer a similar fate, while the knock-on effects for crop farmers and businesses throughout the value chain will be severe.
Rethinking Food and Agriculture shows how the modern food disruption, made possible by rapid advances in precision biology and an entirely new model of production we call Food-as-Software, will have profound implications not just for the industrial agriculture industry, but for the wider economy, society, and the environment.

https://www.rethinkx.com/food-and-agriculture

the wipe out of the US ag sector by 2030 it says in the report replaced by a food as software model engineered by scientists

[Biscuit]

..... food as software model engineered by scientists


yum, yum. Personally I get my meat from home-killed animals, skinned and gutted on the fields they lived on.

[tomm]

I wish this platform has an ignore button to ignore all the trolls .

[peat]

hammers last year at 10.50 and again recently give a lot of support at that level so the moving average breakthrough might mean something - certainly a clear stop loss point.

[silu]

double post

[silu]

I wish this platform has an ignore button to ignore all the trolls .

You can do that. Click on the user name "click profile" and "add to ignore list".

[tomm]

You can do that. Click on the user name "click profile" and "add to ignore list".
Thanks for telling me .

[Entrep]

Stephen Ridgewell published and extensive preview overnight in advance of the ATM 1H21 result on Thursday. The result is pre-guided with $181m of EBITDA expected although the key questions for Ridgewell is whether ATM can provide confidence that revenue and margin trends are stabilising sequentially and also whether ATM can diversify its channels to market and defend its brand premium under new CEO David Bortolussi. Clarity on the latter question will take some time, although feedback from our proprietary large daigou contacts suggest that the sequential sales snap back is yet to eventuate. The issues around this important channel are multifaceted but can be best summarised as follows:

· Volumes declining - volume trends have worsened in early 2021 with Jan sales -70% yoy (vs. -55% yoy in the Dec qtr) with a much smaller than normal increase in demand ahead of the Chinese New Year period (chart 1)

· ATM’s daigou market share has eased – ATM has gone from market share gainer in 2018/19 to holding relative share versus other key daigou brands such as Danone’s Aptamil.

· Eroding Price Premiums – The decline in ATM’s price point benchmarked to 1 January 2020 has been more severe than other major brands which could reflect inventory overstocking but also greater A2 only competition (see Feihe’s A2 launch below).

· Price cuts have struggled to trickle down – ATM alluded to some prices cuts to restore daigou margins although feedback suggests that these have not yet been passed on from wholesale to large daigou.

· Brand spend needs to increase – Feedback suggests that ATM has become much harder to sell with daigou commenting that in addition to price cuts they want ATM to increase brand spend.

ATM’s current challenges reflect a mix of industry headwinds but also ATM specific issues. International brand market share has fallen from 56% to 49% over the past two years, driven by i) food safety concerns with consumers concerned about the risk of catching COVID from imported tins ii) regulations that support domestic brands iii) greater nationalism and iv) increasing competition as domestic brands more aggressively target tier 1 & 2 cities. This however does not explain why ATM’s history of gaining share appears to have halted. Whatever the primary driver, as Ridgewell indicates, ATM’s over-reliance on the daigou channel also means it has been more impacted by its collapse. With this in mind we now expect ATM to deliver FY21e EBITDA of $387m, at the low end of the guidance range ($364m - $450m, midpoint $406m) and with the PER still elevated at 31x we prefer to sit on the side-lines at these levels. Neutral rating retained with an updated TP -9% to $10.63 …

Craigs neutral

[Balance]

Craigs neutral

Ominous update from Craigs for Thursday results - declining volume, margin under pressure and need to increase advertising and promotion spend.

Should have kept Jayne on - she knew what had to be done but the board knew better.

Neutral from a corporate broker = underweight.

[bull....]

Craigs neutral

cheers for the update , brokers finally catching up.

sharetrader was well ahead of the change of fortunes

[sb9]

Ominous update from Craigs for Thursday results - declining volume, margin under pressure and need to increase advertising and promotion spend.

Should have kept Jayne on - she knew what had to be done but the board knew better.

Neutral from a corporate broker = underweight.

Oh the same outfit that advised their clients to invest in GTK...yeah right!

[BlackPeter]

Good idea. Thursday we will have facts vs fiction.
Some here seem to be lacking a balanced view. The fact A2 have the majority of the A2 milk pool tied up, would suggest to me that competitors are at least limited as to the volume they can produce. Its not as if the NZ Government are suddenly making it easier to increase herd numbers is it.

Lifetime of a commercial milking cow is 6 years. That's the maximum time it takes to turn a mixed A1/A2 herd into pure A2. No need to increase the numbers of animals. If they separate their A2 cows from the others, the changeover can be done obviously much faster, because you don't need to wait for the A1 cows to reach their end of life ...

BTW - many farmers started this process (breeding A2 and using A2 semen) already some years ago. Commercially available semen is for some years already only A2 (i.e. even farmers who don't intend to change now are preparing their herds already by increasing A2 gens).

I don't want to rain into your parade, but I think the moat you are talking about is pretty leaky and small :): The IP moat everybody talked about clearly did not materialize, i.e. the only thing they have is a first comer advantage. We will see how much this is worth in new markets.

I think A2 milk is better for some people than A1 milk (despite not believing in all the unsubstantiated hype and conspiracy theories). I am however not convinced, that the company A2 milk will be able to ride this wave much longer. I see a future where they compete with many other competitors selling normal A2 milk ... making quite standard margins as any other company.

[Balance]

Oh the same outfit that advised their clients to invest in GTK...yeah right!

Irrespective, with that kind of update and price target below market price, Craigs will be selling down or out of ATM from their clients managed portfolios?

No wonder the sp was sold down at market open today.

[porkandpuha]

Irrespective, with that kind of update and price target below market price, Craigs will be selling down or out of ATM from their clients managed portfolios?

No wonder the sp was sold down at market open today.


Appears the ASX opening still has a lot more pull than Craigs

[Balance]

Appears the ASX opening still has a lot more pull than Craigs

That is a given - stocks like ATM, FBU or FPH are driven out of Oz.

[Ferg]

I wish this platform has an ignore button to ignore all the trolls .
Click on a users profile, 4th option down is "Add to ignore list". Not sure what it does. I guess we shall find out.

[aperitif]

https://dataroma.com/m/holdings.php?m=SEQUX

[Gregnz]

Lifetime of a commercial milking cow is 6 years. That's the maximum time it takes to turn a mixed A1/A2 herd into pure A2. No need to increase the numbers of animals. If they separate their A2 cows from the others, the changeover can be done obviously much faster, because you don't need to wait for the A1 cows to reach their end of life ...

BTW - many farmers started this process (breeding A2 and using A2 semen) already some years ago. Commercially available semen is for some years already only A2 (i.e. even farmers who don't intend to change now are preparing their herds already by increasing A2 gens).

I don't want to rain into your parade, but I think the moat you are talking about is pretty leaky and small :): The IP moat everybody talked about clearly did not materialize, i.e. the only thing they have is a first comer advantage. We will see how much this is worth in new markets.

I think A2 milk is better for some people than A1 milk (despite not believing in all the unsubstantiated hype and conspiracy theories). I am however not convinced, that the company A2 milk will be able to ride this wave much longer. I see a future where they compete with many other competitors selling normal A2 milk ... making quite standard margins as any other company.

I think you've missed the point I was making with my original comment. It was with regard to competitors getting access to additional A2 Milk supply to produce their product. I'm fully aware you can convert herds over. But as it stands, A2 Milk Co via their arrangement with Fonterra/Synlait and Farmers have the majority of the A2 Milk Pool tied up. So competing products (other A2 milk formulas produced here) will either need to convince other farmers to convert over their herds to A2 or expect they will have a limited supply of milk solids and capped capacity. Will farmers convert more herds over to supply these competing products when its a known fact that A2A2 cows produce less milk? I guess like A2 Milk Co, these other competing brands will have to sell their proposal and perhaps stump up $$ to convince other farmers without A2A2 herds to convert their herd, ie pay more for milk solids. This will need to happen as its unlikely these competing brands will be able to create new herds as this leads to an increase in herd numbers (my original point). Maybe current farmers who dont have A2A2 herds, have no plans to have A2A2 herds? After all it would appear A2 Milk Co got the low hanging fruit, part of first mover advantage I guess.

[dreamcatcher]

Hypothetically if you had a wart on your nose after drinking a brand of milk which vanishes after drinking another brand but reappears again after drinking the first brand again would that be classed as a miracle.....Some people who have no wart say that's all rubbish as they are not affected by drinking either.

People could argue what's special about a2 ask - Nestles, Danone, Nike, Reebok, Guchi, Prada Levi ..... Its called their BRAND took years to build now most people recognize and trust to brands to provide quality products.


Plenty of our Chinese rallies request the milk brand with no warts

[Onion]

Lifetime of a commercial milking cow is 6 years. That's the maximum time it takes to turn a mixed A1/A2 herd into pure A2. No need to increase the numbers of animals. If they separate their A2 cows from the others, the changeover can be done obviously much faster, because you don't need to wait for the A1 cows to reach their end of life ...

BTW - many farmers started this process (breeding A2 and using A2 semen) already some years ago. Commercially available semen is for some years already only A2 (i.e. even farmers who don't intend to change now are preparing their herds already by increasing A2 gens).

I don't want to rain into your parade, but I think the moat you are talking about is pretty leaky and small :): The IP moat everybody talked about clearly did not materialize, i.e. the only thing they have is a first comer advantage. We will see how much this is worth in new markets.

I think A2 milk is better for some people than A1 milk (despite not believing in all the unsubstantiated hype and conspiracy theories). I am however not convinced, that the company A2 milk will be able to ride this wave much longer. I see a future where they compete with many other competitors selling normal A2 milk ... making quite standard margins as any other company.

Thank you BP. You have expressed clearly what I have thought for a while. ATM may own some A2 IP but not all the production of A2 milk.

[Gregnz]

Thank you BP. You have expressed clearly what I have thought for a while. ATM may own some A2 IP but not all the production of A2 milk.

Welcome to the forum. No one company owns all A2 milk production in NZ. Just some companies have control of the vast majority.

[BlackPeter]

Welcome to the forum. No one company owns all A2 milk production in NZ. Just some companies have control of the vast majority.

Sure - at the moment they do. However, this is something which is easy to change for any competitor (if they want to).

Any other company can move into NZ and offer any farmer with A2 herds a better contract than Fonterra or Synlait do at the moment. Of course there will be some notice period, but in the mid run whoever offers the best compensation package will get the milk, neither Synlait nor Fonterra nor A2 milk own the herds.

[Gregnz]

Sure - at the moment they do. However, this is something which is easy to change for any competitor (if they want to).

Any other company can move into NZ and offer any farmer with A2 herds a better contract than Fonterra or Synlait do at the moment. Of course there will be some notice period, but in the mid run whoever offers the best compensation package will get the milk, neither Synlait nor Fonterra nor A2 milk own the herds.

Of course, but that would certainly be a very interesting business model. Pay an even more attractive premium for A2 milk solids from farmers (more than the premium A2 milk co currently pay), while producing and selling a cheaper product (if you cant compete on quality, you have to compete on price).
I wouldn't like to know what sort of slim margins those businesses would run on, I certainly wouldn't be an investor.

[BlackPeter]

Of course, but that would certainly be a very interesting business model. Pay an even more attractive premium for A2 milk solids from farmers (more than the premium A2 milk co currently pay), while producing and selling a cheaper product (if you cant compete on quality, you have to compete on price).
I wouldn't like to know what sort of slim margins those businesses would run on, I certainly wouldn't be an investor.

Endowment effect is something amazing.

The company you own can only do well - will control all assets and keep reaping fat margins. Anybody else going into the same market though will not be able to survive because asset control is so dear and margins are so slim.

Just wondering how Synlait managed to convince lots of farmers to come across from Fonterra? Worked for them for a while, but oops - that's probably because Synlait is currently where Fonterra is already for a long time - deep in the pink fonts ...? No, stop - Synlait is deep in the proverbial because they came too close to ATM. Dangerous company ...

It is a tough life in your universe for anybody whose shares you don't own, isn't it :p)?

Problem is just - companies do not live in your universe but in the real world and are not impacted by your reasoning in various forums :): While your storyline might make you short term feel better, it closes your mind for seeing the other side of the coin.

If e.g. Nestlé, Danone or Unilever need A2 milk, they won't have any problems to get it.

Not saying who is right in this case, but ignoring clear and obvious risks for one's darling is in general a dangerous investment strategy.

Good luck with that.

[Gregnz]

Endowment effect is something amazing.

The company you own can only do well - will control all assets and keep reaping fat margins. Anybody else going into the same market though will not be able to survive because asset control is so dear and margins are so slim.

Just wondering how Synlait managed to convince lots of farmers to come across from Fonterra? Worked for them for a while, but oops - that's probably because Synlait is currently where Fonterra is already for a long time - deep in the pink fonts ...?

It is a tough life in your universe for anybody whose shares you don't own, isn't it :p)?

Problem is just - companies do not live in your universe but in the real world and are not impacted by your reasoning in various forums :): While your storyline might make you short term feel better, it closes your mind for seeing the other side of the coin.

If e.g. Danone needs A2 milk, they won't have any problems to get it.

Not saying who is right in this case, but ignoring clear and obvious risks for one's darling is in general a dangerous investment strategy.

Good luck with that.

I’m certainly not saying I’m right, and I’m not saying your wrong. I’m simply pointing out that there are two different sides to the argument. Obviously a company I’m investing in, I want it to do well. Just as a company your not invested in, you’ll look for possible negatives.

I wouldn’t say I’m ignoring the risks, I often come here and point out risks.

And I won’t lower my standards to suggest you live in a different universe, that’s quite a childish view, and simply I would have thought you’d be more respected than that, but perhaps not.

[Gregnz]

Endowment effect is something amazing.

The company you own can only do well - will control all assets and keep reaping fat margins. Anybody else going into the same market though will not be able to survive because asset control is so dear and margins are so slim.

Just wondering how Synlait managed to convince lots of farmers to come across from Fonterra? Worked for them for a while, but oops - that's probably because Synlait is currently where Fonterra is already for a long time - deep in the pink fonts ...? No, stop - Synlait is deep in the proverbial because they came too close to ATM. Dangerous company ...

It is a tough life in your universe for anybody whose shares you don't own, isn't it :p)?

Problem is just - companies do not live in your universe but in the real world and are not impacted by your reasoning in various forums :): While your storyline might make you short term feel better, it closes your mind for seeing the other side of the coin.

If e.g. Nestlé, Danone or Unilever need A2 milk, they won't have any problems to get it.

Not saying who is right in this case, but ignoring clear and obvious risks for one's darling is in general a dangerous investment strategy.

Good luck with that.

Odd that you point out that ATM have been dangerous company for Synlait. Really? Synlait wouldn’t be anywhere close to the size they are today if it wasn’t for ATM.

[BlackPeter]

Odd that you point out that ATM have been dangerous company for Synlait. Really? Synlait wouldn’t be anywhere close to the size they are today if it wasn’t for ATM.

Interesting you would say that.

I was initially quite involved with Synlait and had as well some good discussions with their founding CEO, various board members and their (now for Comvita working) CFO.

They always planned for B2B with a number of balanced customers - and had initially from memory more potential suitors than I have fingers on my hand.

Yes, things changed - and while they always claimed that they can survive if the A2 business fails, I am not so sure these days.

Anyway - I think A2 was for them a bit like a poisoned chalice. Nice, shiny and easy to grab, but it took managements eyes off pursuing other opportunities and at the end it was not that good for the digestion, wasn't it?

Would they have less revenue without ATM - you bet.

Would their business be more balanced and potentially as well more profitable without their ATM liaison - I think it well might.

They lost a lot of potential partners over the years ... and turning now more and more into Fonterra 2.0;

[Sideshow Bob]

Just wondering how Synlait managed to convince lots of farmers to come across from Fonterra? Worked for them for a while, but oops - that's probably because Synlait is currently where Fonterra is already for a long time - deep in the pink fonts ...? No, stop - Synlait is deep in the proverbial because they came too close to ATM. Dangerous company ...



The attraction for these guys is they don't need a shareholding to supply Synlait. Fonterra being a co-op, have to be a shareholder, with holding depending on your size, and believe the average is several hundred thousand.

The likes of Synlait/Open Country/Oceania etc got alot of traction when farms were being converted to dairy in recent years, and farmers didn't want to take on further debt to supply milk to a coop. Plus Fonterra's performance history wouldn't have helped.....

[aperitif]

https://www.a2nutrition.cn/find

They are really going at MBS now, another ~2,400 stores added in three months. Imagine if nestle took a 15% stake tomorrow. Reading their transcript call they are on the hunt for acquisitions.....

[Jiggs]

My family is drinking raw milk (with short breaks) for the last 60 years and we never had any related health problems and are all healthy:

Pasteurised milk (heated to 60 deg C) stayed fresh longer in the days before refrigerators. Wikipedia tells me that diseases prevented by pasteurization "can include tuberculosis (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tuberculosis), brucellosis (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brucellosis), diphtheria (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diphtheria) andscarlet fever (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scarlet_fever), and it also kills the harmful bacteria Salmonella (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Salmonella), Listeria (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Listeria), Yersinia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yersinia), Campylobacter (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Campylobacter), Staphylococcus aureus (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Staphylococcus_aureus), and Escherichia coli (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Escherichia_coli_O157:H7)." When I was a kid in the 1940s, tuberculosis was a killer. I still have the big scar on my arm where I got a Tb jab in 4th Form. And antibiotic-resistant mutations of Tb are now developing. So raw milk is on the outer for most because increasing numbers of people are children of anti-vaxxers and don't have their own Tb-tested house-cow.

Wikipedia also rattles on at length about the unproven nature of A2 Milk's medical claims. The real difference seems to be that a protein in A1 cows' milk forms an opioid when it is digested (which may help you go off to sleep?) while A2 milk doesn't. Certainly A2 Milk must be keeping a lot of its big shareholders awake at nights this year!

[silu]

Reading and digesting:
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/ATM/368161/341147.pdf
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/ATM/368161/341152.pdf

Hang on they did beat their revised forecast?! So no dreaded 3rd downgrade. Better get another coffee and read properly.

[alokdhir]

Nothing big changed ...only projecting pretty lower margins ahead ...also did 677 mil and full year around 1400 mil subject to some conditions ...so not seeing better second half ...On first look no down grade and no upgrade ....just a grind lower I suppose