ATM - A2 Milk Corporation Limited

[Ggcc]

Last time I checked this was an open forum. Who gave you the authority to attempt to bully others away from using it?

Anybody is welcome to contribute their views on stocks - and it is not up to self appointed watchdogs to control the flow of information in order to ensure a company is up- (or down-) ramped.

I certainly want to see all views on the companies which interest me. In case you do have a constructive arguments - please provide them, but stop to bully others for sharing their views, just because they don't fit into your picture.

Play the ball, not the player.
I agree. This is an open forum for all people positive or negative. I hold some, but had to sell some to buy a house. I do hold this stock, but do appreciate Balances views.

[Balance]

So, where are the skeletons? What was so shocking and new in the report that was not known before?

stock situation & sales was known after December's update - nothing new
Sales not being achieved - which one? HY is above last guidance and below last year as was stated before - nothing new
Getting rid of stock - they were opened on this issue as well - nothing new
Too easy to blame it on Covid & Daigou - they did it since September - nothing new
As Craig’s note alerted to - ATM has lost momentum vs it’s competitors - Craig's opinion is nothing more than Craig's opinion.
And all that while executives and directors were feasting on share options - they were doing so since forever - nothing new
Guidance adjusted to lower end is hardly a skeleton.

So were are the promised skeletons by new CEO? If anything he was sitting quietly all QA session as he was not there.
and where is China's ban on infant formula from which you also promised?

My post was 27 Feb, referring to your post of 11 Jan 2021,

So wait for the CEO to put his feet under the table - fourth downgrade is on its way.

[777]

I agree. This is an open forum for all people positive or negative. I hold some, but had to sell some to buy a house. I do hold this stock, but do appreciate Balances views.

You must really like them. They are all the same.

[Balance]

You must really like them. They are all the same.

Yes, they are all the same and so right about ATM so easy to like, right?

[Beagle]

KFL's latest update has them having just fallen out of their top 5 holdings https://announcements.nzx.com/detail/368414, whereas a few days earlier before the major haircut ATM took last week they were in the top 5 at 7%.

In August 2020 when ATM was at its peak of $21.74 their holding was 14%. It looks to me like ostensibly all of the percentage reduction is related to the drop by more than half of ATM's share price since then and therefore looks like many people, (perhaps myself included at some stage), have given Kingfish more credit than they deserve. I know at one point they went on record (think it was December), as saying they had reduced but it doesn't look like on a net basis since August 2020, they let very many go. Hardly any by the looks of it.

[winner69]

KFL's latest update has them having just fallen out of their top 5 holdings https://announcements.nzx.com/detail/368414, whereas a few days earlier before the major haircut ATM took last week they were in the top 5 at 7%.

In August 2020 when ATM was at its peak of $21.74 their holding was 14%. It looks to me like ostensibly all of the percentage reduction is related to the drop by more than half of ATM's share price since then and therefore looks like many people, (perhaps myself included at some stage), have given Kingfish more credit than they deserve. I know at one point they went on record (think it was December), as saying they had reduced but it doesn't look like on a net basis since August 2020, they let very many go. Hardly any by the looks of it.

Tracking them weekly and within the limits of roundings (like 10% could be between 9.51% and 10.49%) I reckon KFL

- were accumulating April /Nov (A2 share price $20/$14
- Sold about 1 million early December $14/$11
- held through to mid Feb
- Sold some last few weeks - maybe 300k/400k of shares

At November they had over $60m in A2 - now its just over $30m

Also depending on roundings used there is a hint they might have bought a few late last week

That's how I see it anyway

[Rawz]

Isn’t it interesting that the guru’s at fisher funds can get it wrong with one of their main holdings dropping 50%, even with all their resources for research and access to management.

Last time I remember them getting it wrong with a large holding was Pumpkin Patch, believe at one stage it was 10%+ of portfolio.

With pumpkin patch they exited pretty quickly. Reported they didn’t meet their STEEPP philosophy and the rest is history (with Pumpkin Patch going bust).

Looks like with ATM they are not selling and as Winner says may even buying a little more. Kingfish invest for the long term and a 1 year blip wouldn’t phase them. Big tick of approval for ATMs future from Fisher funds? And yes they are still guru’s.

[Beagle]

Tracking them weekly and within the limits of roundings (like 10% could be between 9.51% and 10.49%) I reckon KFL

- were accumulating April /Nov (A2 share price $20/$14
- Sold about 1 million early December $14/$11
- held through to mid Feb
- Sold some last few weeks - maybe 300k/400k of shares

At November they had over $60m in A2 - now its just over $30m

Also depending on roundings used there is a hint they might have bought a few late last week

That's how I see it anyway

Looks about right. Going off vague memory they did mention just after the result last year that they had bought some more and then they sold some late in 2020 on the basis that the daigou recovery hadn't met expectations. That was just before management announced the second big downgrade so clearly they got that info as a result of a company visit.

What I find especially disturbing about this one is that its now clear December sales were extremely weak (hence the huge second downgrade in December) and if Craigs are being reported correctly as saying they've been informed IF sales are down 70% in January as a result of their company visit sometime in February, (this information is not really in the market per se) then when the company says the third downgraded forecast is predicated upon a significant rebound in Q4 sales compared to Q3, (or words to that effect) its clear they are forecasting a really significant rebound in Q4 sales so its clear there is very real risk around the size of that rebound, if any, and management appear to still be taking a very, very optimistic view of their near term prospects. Given their recent inability to forecast anything, (losing credibility at very serious speed), one has to wonder what credibility, if any, one should ascribe to their revised forecast ?

As for Kingfish's skills...well, on average they have beaten the market by a few percent per annum after fees over the last few years so they deserve some credit for that.

[Beagle]

Website playing up again...double post.

[Balance]

https://www.fool.com.au/2021/03/01/is-this-the-end-of-the-road-for-the-a2-milk-asxa2m-share-price/

Bell Porter's view:

"Bell Potter updated its A2 Milk share price target on 25 February to $8.65, which represents a downside of 3% to its share price at the time of writing.

Into this share price target, the broker incorporated A2’s holding of Synlait Milk Ltd (ASX: SM1), a value for the expected upside in China based on projected stockists and sell-through rates, and a value for the US opportunity.

The broker commented that “A2 Milk is by no means cheap, neither is the sector and to a degree the material under performance of A2 Milk reflects this.”

[tomm]

Financial Writer, Australia | Publication date: Monday 01 March 2021 15:54

Citi has remained unconvinced by A2M's interim results, reiterating their Sell rating and lowering their price target to AUD$7.15 per share.
UBS has a Buy rating and a NZD$15.60 price target on A2M.
Macquarie analysts have taken a middle-ground approach, highlighting the uncertainty which the company still faces, a Neutral rating and AUD$13.84 price target.

[LEMON]

Even as a new investor I have come to quickly learn that brokers are usually wrong and entirely biased. They only want the prediction that benefits them solely.
Only now and then they're correct and promote how accurate they are to seem in the know.

[Balance]

Even as a new investor I have come to quickly learn that brokers are usually wrong and entirely biased. They only want the prediction that benefits them solely.
Only now and then they're correct and promote how accurate they are to seem in the know.

It's all about reading the 'body' language of the brokers and analysts - because the most lucrative aspect of stockbroking is not about making the right calls, but generating brokerage from clients' trading, profits from proprietary trading and above all else, corporate & investment banking (as in IPOs, placements, underwriting, M&A - meaning keeping onside with the corporates).

Which is why you will hardly ever see a broker put a 'SELL' on any stock - unless it is indeed dire or crystal clear the company is in decline.

https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/THE-A2-MILK-COMPANY-LIMIT-21453329/consensus/

The consensus forecast and target price of ATM from brokers over the last year mirror the share price - conclusively proving that brokers follow the company rather than the other way round, as a general rule.

But for thew first time, we are seeing a major divergence with two brokers, Citi & Bell Porter, downgrading's ATM earnings and target sp well below consensus - a major development imo.

[Ruby]

It's all about reading the 'body' language of the brokers and analysts - because the most lucrative aspect of stockbroking is not about making the right calls, but generating brokerage from clients' trading, profits from proprietary trading and above all else, corporate & investment banking (as in IPOs, placements, underwriting, M&A - meaning keeping onside with the corporates).

Which is why you will hardly ever see a broker put a 'SELL' on any stock - unless it is indeed dire or crystal clear the company is in decline.

https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/THE-A2-MILK-COMPANY-LIMIT-21453329/consensus/

The consensus forecast and target price of ATM from brokers over the last year mirror the share price - conclusively proving that brokers follow the company rather than the other way round, as a general rule.

But for thew first time, we are seeing a major divergence with two brokers, Citi & Bell Porter, downgrading's ATM earnings and target sp well below consensus - a major development imo.
So of 9 analysts,2 have underperform,4 have hold,2 out perform & 1 have buy...and you choose to highlight only the worst 2 :-) ;-)

[Balance]

So of 9 analysts,2 have underperform,4 have hold,2 out perform & 1 have buy...and you choose to highlight only the worst 2 :-) ;-)

Which part of major divergence in target price do you not read?

Should have listened to those of us who warned of a second & third downgrade, eh?

[tomm]

So of 9 analysts,2 have underperform,4 have hold,2 out perform & 1 have buy...and you choose to highlight only the worst 2 :-) ;-)
He loves this stock but looking for a cheap entry LOL.

[alokdhir]

He loves this stock but looking for a cheap entry LOL.


He has made more money with this stock trading it both ways ...Not just stubbornly believing it can move in one direction that is UP ...

So he sure does love ATM as it moves big both ways :D

[Ruby]

What has your warnings got to do with anything.
I was just asking a question.What do you mean about "major divergence" ? Serious question,because I am not sure what you mean is significant...I am trying to be open minded and learn something,ok?
Your continual baiting people with "you should have listened to me.." is a little condescending actually mate...

[Balance]

He loves this stock but looking for a cheap entry LOL.

Another poster who would be saving himself a lot of grief if he had taken note of the warnings. :t_up:

[Balance]

What has your warnings got to do with anything.
I was just asking a question.What do you mean about "major divergence" ? Serious question,because I am not sure what you mean is significant...I am trying to be open minded and learn something,ok?
Your continual baiting people with "you should have listened to me.." is a little condescending actually mate...

For your own benefit, read through my full posting :

It's all about reading the 'body' language of the brokers and analysts - because the most lucrative aspect of stockbroking is not about making the right calls, but generating brokerage from clients' trading, profits from proprietary trading and above all else, corporate & investment banking (as in IPOs, placements, underwriting, M&A - meaning keeping onside with the corporates).

Which is why you will hardly ever see a broker put a 'SELL' on any stock - unless it is indeed dire or crystal clear the company is in decline.

https://www.marketscreener.com/quote...329/consensus/

The consensus forecast and target price of ATM from brokers over the last year mirror the share price - conclusively proving that brokers follow the company rather than the other way round, as a general rule.

But for thew first time, we are seeing a major divergence with two brokers, Citi & Bell Porter, downgrading's ATM earnings and target sp well below consensus - a major development imo.

[Ruby]

I'm sure he has,there are traders and there are LTH's...i'd have more respect if he said I make money out this moving up and down,so be open that you are going to hit on any opportunity to talk this down during a down cycle before you buy back in...
He has made more money with this stock trading it both ways ...Not just stubbornly believing it can move in one direction that is UP ...

So he sure does love ATM as it moves big both ways :D

[Ruby]

For your own benefit, read through my full posting :

It's all about reading the 'body' language of the brokers and analysts - because the most lucrative aspect of stockbroking is not about making the right calls, but generating brokerage from clients' trading, profits from proprietary trading and above all else, corporate & investment banking (as in IPOs, placements, underwriting, M&A - meaning keeping onside with the corporates).

Which is why you will hardly ever see a broker put a 'SELL' on any stock - unless it is indeed dire or crystal clear the company is in decline.

https://www.marketscreener.com/quote...329/consensus/

The consensus forecast and target price of ATM from brokers over the last year mirror the share price - conclusively proving that brokers follow the company rather than the other way round, as a general rule.

But for thew first time, we are seeing a major divergence with two brokers, Citi & Bell Porter, downgrading's ATM earnings and target sp well below consensus - a major development imo.

From what I have read of many posts over the years,Sam Teeger @ Citi & Bell POTTER,have regularly drawn ire for being outliers,going against consensus.

[Balance]

I'm sure he has,there are traders and there are LTH's...i'd have more respect if he said I make money out this moving up and down,so be open that you are going to hit on any opportunity to talk this down during a down cycle before you buy back in...

You are being naive, Ruby.

A multi-billion dollar market cap stock like ATM is driven 100% by the institutional market - we are but little minnows in the overall scheme of things when it comes to anybody here or any posting impacting on the sp.

Take that onboard for starters, because it's clear you do not understand that fact and you may actually start to make the right decision.

[Ruby]

Another poster who would be saving himself a lot of grief if he had taken note of the warnings. :t_up:
Adding smiley faces to your condescending remarks at posters really is an insight to your character mate ...

[Balance]

Adding smiley faces to your condescending remarks at posters really is an insight to your character mate ...

Pull my tail and I will react accordingly.
:t_up:

[Ruby]

You are being naive, Ruby.

A multi-billion dollar market cap stock like ATM is driven 100% by the institutional market - we are but little minnows in the overall scheme of things when it comes to anybody here or any posting impacting on the sp.

Take that onboard for starters, because it's clear you do not understand that fact and you may actually start to make the right decision.
Sorry,you misunderstood...I NEVER for a minute think that you could move the market,I just questioned your honesty around your postings and motivation,i.e you make money out of this going down and up,this share has been a traders dream if thats what you were into,every year like clock work,down ,then up,rinse & repeat..

[Ruby]

Pull my tail and I will react accordingly.
:t_up:
I wasn't pulling anything of yours,I just asked a question and you come back with "...another who should have listened..."

[porkandpuha]

Should have listened to those of us who warned of a second & third downgrade, eh?

Nobody listens to you. You lost all credibility and respect with the condescending posts.

[Gregnz]

Nobody listens to you. You lost all credibility and respect with the condescending posts.

In fairness, I think Beagle listens, but that’s about all.

[Akane]

Imagine being so in love of a stock that "it can do no wrong", even tho it has lost >50% of it's value from ATH in less than a year.
Fanboyism is real.


Just sell it if you don't like it!

I should've when it was dipping into the 15's, I guess I screwed up - at least I admit it when I made a (quite a few) bad calls!

I appreciate Balance and Beagle's input, gives us all a reality check and calling a turd a turd, instead of clutching to straws.

[Gregnz]

Imagine being so in love of a stock that "it can do no wrong", even tho it has lost >50% of it's value from ATH in less than a year.
Fanboyism is real.
I should've when it was dipping into the 15's, I guess I screwed up - at least I admit it when I made a (quite a few) bad calls!
I appreciate Balance and Beagle's input, gives us all a reality check and calling a turd a turd, instead of clutching to straws.

It’s very easy for people who aren’t invested and sitting on the sidelines to tell investors when to sell, end of the day it’s not their money. What’s true of forums, when the share price eventually increases, those saying sell quickly go quiet. They will gloat and shout from the roof tops while the share price is in decline, but the minute the tide turns, they quickly go silent.

What I would say, there is a way to get various view points across without being derogatory and condescending. As I’ve said before, the time to gloat has long passed.

[BlackPeter]

Nobody listens to you. You lost all credibility and respect with the condescending posts.

Well, agreed, balance has sometimes a manner to repeat his message too often and too loud, and admittedly - sometimes he chooses quite ugly tones to convey what he wants to say. Sometimes it is as well that his personal views seem to get into the way of objectivity.

Having said that - He often is right about the big picture, and not only in ATM would shareholders have saved lots of money if they would have listened to him. Is he always right? No, but I think his judgement related to stocks compares favorably with that of many professional analysts.

Ignore his views if you like, but do so at your peril :):

Can we say the same about you? Not really - just another junior member who seems to see his or her main role in nagging ...

Is attacking other posters all you've got? Why not show us some analysis and forecasts instead of just tearing down your fellow posters?

Bullying others does not make this a better place. Play the ball and not the player ...

[Ruby]

It’s very easy for people who aren’t invested and sitting on the sidelines to tell investors when to sell, end of the day it’s not their money. What’s true of forums, when the share price eventually increases, those saying sell quickly go quiet. They will gloat and shout from the roof tops while the share price is in decline, but the minute the tide turns, they quickly go silent.

What I would say, there is a way to get various view points across without being derogatory and condescending. As I’ve said before, the time to gloat has long passed.
Agree totally Greg.I have no problem with the B's expressing opinions,but when it crosses over to gloating or effectively bullying after the fact,it is just not acceptable.
Bask in the warm glow knowing that your opinion was right,but leave it at that.When an sp goes down,there will always be someone hurting,for everyone that says I got out @ $20,means someone else is licking their wounds as they bought at that price.In this current environment,a lot of people could be quite fragile,may have invested redundancy funds etc,so being a smart arse could be quite detrimental to their mental health!!
As a veeeery long term holder (in @ 10c prior to listing on main exchange) I have been thriugh ups and downs with this share,so battle hardened.It may never go back to its dizzy peaks but then again,it has many times before.
My thoughts are with folk who are under water,not sure which way to go.
In closing,stick to facts,end the gloating and 'shoulda listened' etc ,drop the emotive language..'disturbing' , 'dog stock','turd' etc.
In the words of our leader...'be nice' :-)

[tomm]

Another poster who would be saving himself a lot of grief if he had taken note of the warnings. :t_up:
You still haven't answer me whether : You are holding any shares or are you looking for cheap entry ???

[LEMON]

Imagine being so in love of a stock that "it can do no wrong", even tho it has lost >50% of it's value from ATH in less than a year.
Fanboyism is real.



I should've when it was dipping into the 15's, I guess I screwed up - at least I admit it when I made a (quite a few) bad calls!

I appreciate Balance and Beagle's input, gives us all a reality check and calling a turd a turd, instead of clutching to straws.

Likewise.
Appreciate their posts and hope they keep it up.
I'm learning a lot from them. I will still hold for now although down, but have no issue with them saying told you so, as it reminds me to listen up and pay attention.

Stop letting ego get in the way, whether you think they are putting you down or not it's free education whilst we hide behind our false forum names, not really worth all the tit for tat.
As my Dad always says listen to the ones who have been there and done it, and learn from them. I'm.sure balance beagle and bull have all been in our positions and learnt from it also.

[Balance]

You still haven't answer me whether : You are holding any shares or are you looking for cheap entry ???

Refer my post #20469

[Sideshow Bob]

Sorry to interrupt the debate......

Article on infant formula sales in China. Much of it quotes A2 and their report last week, but weren't alone in their CBEC and Daigou issues - Danone saying their CBEC sales down 45%.

Daigou still slow: Infant nutrition brands driving sales at mother-and-baby stores, e-commerce in China (nutraingredients-asia.com) (https://www.nutraingredients-asia.com/Article/2021/03/01/Daigou-still-slow-Infant-nutrition-brands-driving-sales-at-mother-and-baby-stores-e-commerce-in-China?utm_source=newsletter_daily&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=02-Mar-2021)

[Balance]

As my Dad always says listen to the ones who have been there and done it, and learn from them.

Sincerely wish I had a dad like yours.

Cheers.

[sb9]

Sorry to interrupt the debate......

Article on infant formula sales in China. Much of it quotes A2 and their report last week, but weren't alone in their CBEC and Daigou issues - Danone saying their CBEC sales down 45%.

Daigou still slow: Infant nutrition brands driving sales at mother-and-baby stores, e-commerce in China (nutraingredients-asia.com) (https://www.nutraingredients-asia.com/Article/2021/03/01/Daigou-still-slow-Infant-nutrition-brands-driving-sales-at-mother-and-baby-stores-e-commerce-in-China?utm_source=newsletter_daily&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=02-Mar-2021)

Thanks for the link. I'm sure this is the best opportunity for newly started CEO take a fresh perspective on yester business model and make necessary shifts in order to future proof business going forward so that reliance on one channel doesn't hurt earnings in a meaningful way.

I still feel Mr Hearn's time's up...move along and let new thinking lead the Board and Company.

[Biscuit]

.... have no issue with them saying told you so, as it reminds me to listen up and pay attention.......

Yes, its a good thing for those of us who made the mistake of buying into the falling share price and then held on to the bitter end during the downtrend. Its like after school tuition for slow learners. The main lesson is watching the share price slide and your money evaporate, that's the classroom message for the whole class. "Don't buy a falling knife" and "wait until there is a confirmed uptrend to buy". Then, after school when all the smart kids get to go home, us slower learners get to stay back for an evening tuition with the 3Bs. It's sort of one-on-one where you can ask questions but in a forum setting. "...so the falling knife thing....thats....thats.. a...a..a....buy?"

[tomm]

Yes, its a good thing for those of us who made the mistake of buying into the falling share price and then held on to the bitter end during the downtrend. Its like after school tuition for slow learners. The main lesson is watching the share price slide and your money evaporate, that's the classroom message for the whole class. "Don't buy a falling knife" and "wait until there is a confirmed uptrend to buy". Then, after school when all the smart kids get to go home, us slower learners get to stay back for an evening tuition with the 3Bs. It's sort of one-on-one where you can ask questions but in a forum setting. "...so the falling knife thing....thats....thats.. a...a..a....buy?"
There is no such a school can teach you accurate exept Mr Market for each stock. This stock is the most volatile on NZX. I am sure all of people here has been loving it , accept the consequences and learn from itself.
Love to see the SP moved up nicely this morning.

[Blue Skies]

Im counting on the 10 million babies born in China last year, plus the imminent return of thousands of 17 year old Asian students to Australia to learn English, for ATM's recovery. :)

On a more serious note though, with world population projected to grow by over 2 billion people in next 30 years, and facing chronic shortages of high quality protein, any company with an existing strong foothold & reliable safe brand should overcome the occasional temp setback & continue to do well.
Meeting the demand for reliable sources of high quality protein which satisfy consumers concerns around food safety, is a huge challenge in the coming years.

[Beagle]

Well, agreed, balance has sometimes a manner to repeat his message too often and too loud, and admittedly - sometimes he chooses quite ugly tones to convey what he wants to say. Sometimes it is as well that his personal views seem to get into the way of objectivity.

Having said that - He often is right about the big picture, and not only in ATM would shareholders have saved lots of money if they would have listened to him. Is he always right? No, but I think his judgement related to stocks compares favorably with that of many professional analysts.

Ignore his views if you like, but do so at your peril :):

Can we say the same about you? Not really - just another junior member who seems to see his or her main role in nagging ...

Is attacking other posters all you've got? Why not show us some analysis and forecasts instead of just tearing down your fellow posters?

Bullying others does not make this a better place. Play the ball and not the player ...

Post of the week in my opinion. I was brought up to respect my elders and listen to them. How some others have been brought up is quite frankly anyone's guess. Frankly I really like Balance's politically incorrect style of posting, (its quite refreshing), as much as the content.
What's the bet that the B team (yourself included because your user name also starts with B):) have all been successfully investing for a very, very, very long time.
But what would we know.... ;)
To be clear because some people think I am just on here to gloat, I am not. I think the chances of another downgrade for FY21 resulting in major broker downgrades for FY22 and beyond is extremely serious and very real. In my view this goes a lot further down the rat hole...nobody can say the B team didn't warn them !

[Biscuit]

Im counting on the 10 million babies born in China last year, plus the imminent return of thousands of 17 year old Asian students to Australia to learn English, for ATM's recovery. :)

On a more serious note though, with world population projected to grow by over 2 billion people in next 30 years, and facing chronic shortages of high quality protein, any company with an existing strong foothold & reliable safe brand should overcome the occasional temp setback & continue to do well.
Meeting the demand for reliable sources of high quality protein which satisfy consumers concerns around food safety, is a huge challenge in the coming years.

Don't you think that the move towards biotech solutions to replace animal proteins will change the game in the future? After all. the main selling point of A2 milk isn't that it has A2 protein, its that it doesn't have A1 protein.

[Biscuit]

deleted double up

[Gregnz]

Post of the week in my opinion. I was brought up to respect my elders and listen to them. How some others have been brought up is quite frankly anyone's guess. Frankly I really like Balance's politically incorrect style of posting, (its quite refreshing), as much as the content.
What's the bet that the B team (yourself included because your user name also starts with B):) have all been successfully investing for a very, very, very long time.
But what would we know.... ;)
To be clear because some people think I am just on here to gloat, I am not. I think the chances of another downgrade for FY21 resulting in major broker downgrades for FY22 and beyond is extremely serious and very real. In my view this goes a lot further down the rat hole...nobody can say the B team didn't warn them !

Beagle you were brought up to listen to your elders no matter how condescending and derogatory they were with their discussion? I think times have moved on. Times have certainly changed. My parents brought me up to chart my own course in life, so far I'm quite content with how its going.
Yes I’m sure many of you have been investing for a very very very long time, it doesn’t always mean your right. I know plenty of young people who could give the older generation a run for their money with many aspects in life, financial markets included.
I guess some of us just choose to display our opinions differently without the need to repeat ourselves. I think we get the point that another downgrade is a very real possibility, after all we have been reminded as such on so so so many many occasions.

[Akane]

To be clear because some people think I am just on here to gloat, I am not. I think the chances of another downgrade for FY21 resulting in major broker downgrades for FY22 and beyond is extremely serious and very real. In my view this goes a lot further down the rat hole...nobody can say the B team didn't warn them !

I'm currently down 48.9% as of right now, WWBD?

[Biscuit]

....What's the bet that the B team (yourself included because your user name also starts with B) have all been successfully investing for a very, very, very long time.....!

Hmmm but what are the rules exactly. What about sb9 and Sideshow Bob? Are we having them in the team? They have both been around for a while and have "B" in their user names, but just not at the start?

[Gregnz]

Hmmm but what are the rules exactly. What about sb9 and Sideshow Bob? Are we having them in the team? They have both been around for a while and have "B" in their user names, but just not at the start?

It would appear to me as though the 'B team' have never made a bad investment decision in their entire lives? I'll admit A2 has been one of mine, but for the long term plenty of opportunity for that to change.
Successfully investing for a very very very long time, I'm sure comes with plenty of mistakes.

[Ruby]

Hmmm but what are the rules exactly. What about sb9 and Sideshow Bob? Are we having them in the team? They have both been around for a while and have "B" in their user names, but just not at the start?
MMMM...sounds like the 'smart' kids are starting a gang...

[Gregnz]

MMMM...sounds like the 'smart' kids are starting a gang...

A shame that the 'expert' in gangs, King1212 isn't here to join their gang.

[Ruby]

A shame that the 'expert' in gangs, King1212 isn't here to join their gang.
Or Moosie,their stand over guy...

[Beagle]

WWBD ? I presume you mean what would Beagle, Bull, or Balance do ? I think you already know the answer to that.

[Beagle]

Hmmm but what are the rules exactly. What about sb9 and Sideshow Bob? Are we having them in the team? They have both been around for a while and have "B" in their user names, but just not at the start?

I see you want to join :lol: This could get complicated :) Thankfully some of the other old hands haven't got B in their name or this would be really complicated e.g Percy, Iceman, Snow Leopard.

[Beagle]

It would appear to me as though the 'B team' have never made a bad investment decision in their entire lives? I'll admit A2 has been one of mine, but for the long term plenty of opportunity for that to change.
Successfully investing for a very very very long time, I'm sure comes with plenty of mistakes.

Has it ever crossed your mind that some of the old hands would like to give back a bit and help youngsters avoid those mistakes ?

[Ruby]

I'm currently down 48.9% as of right now, WWBD?
My suggestion would be to listen,but DYOR...if you sold at the year low of 8.92 vs todays high of 9.96 you could have cost yourself quite a bit of cash...

[aperitif]

a2 has launched a few products recently which I believe the market is sleeping on(Smart Nutrition UHT and Full Cream UHT). Further diversifying into a China where a large portion of milk consumed is UHT. Sales on JD in the last few days have gone parabolic, and the reason why a2 is up today.

[Gregnz]

Has it ever crossed your mind that some of the old hands would like to give back a bit and help youngsters avoid those mistakes ?

Of course. But just incessantly repeating 'downgrades come in threes' or now 'downgrades come in four's' isn't really that helpful. There is a lot to take into consideration, like peoples investment timeframes, if your holding for 2-5 years, maybe a fourth downgrade isn't the B all and end all?
If we were all to follow your advice and sell out now, and a fourth downgrade didn't eventuate, would you be here to financially compensate us? No, and I wouldn't expect it. But that proves my previous point that its much easier to criticise from the sidelines when you're not invested, than it would be to make those calls when your own money is on the line.

What about the possibility that a 4th downgrade is priced in? The SP didn't drop after the HY result because of it exceeding HY guidance, it dropped because of the uncertainty around FY results. Would seem to me as though a decent amount of downside risk is priced in.

[Biscuit]

I see you want to join :lol: This could get complicated :) Thankfully some of the other old hands haven't got B in their name or this would be really complicated e.g Percy, Iceman, Snow Leopard.

Look, if it would help, I could put the boot into ATM for a bit :)?

[Ruby]

Of course. But just incessantly repeating 'downgrades come in threes' or now 'downgrades come in four's' isn't really that helpful. There is a lot to take into consideration, like peoples investment timeframes, if your holding for 2-5 years, maybe a fourth downgrade isn't the B all and end all?
If we were all to follow your advice and sell out now, and a fourth downgrade didn't eventuate, would you be here to financially compensate us? No, and I wouldn't expect it. But that proves my previous point that its much easier to criticise from the sidelines when you're not invested, than it would be to make those calls when your own money is on the line.

What about the possibility that a 4th downgrade is priced in? The SP didn't drop after the HY result because of it exceeding HY guidance, it dropped because of the uncertainty around FY results. Would seem to me as though a decent amount of downside risk is priced in.
Greg,as I am trying to learn,are you saying if someone says "downgrades always come in 3's"...then I load up after the 3rd,are you saying there could be a 4th & 5th downgrade...sheesh,this is more difficult than I thought,I may have to stay after class a bit longer.

[Ruby]

a2 has launched a few products recently which I believe the market is sleeping on(Smart Nutrition UHT and Full Cream UHT). Further diversifying into a China where a large portion of milk consumed is UHT. Sales on JD in the last few days have gone parabolic, and the reason why a2 is up today.
From last year;
https://edairynews.com/en/chinese-influencers-sell-70000-cartons-of-kiwi-uht-milk-in-a-minute-80033/
Chinese influencers sell 70,000 cartons of Kiwi UHT milk in a minute (https://edairynews.com/en/chinese-influencers-sell-70000-cartons-of-kiwi-uht-milk-in-a-minute-80033/)

[Beagle]

Of course. But just incessantly repeating 'downgrades come in threes' or now 'downgrades come in four's' isn't really that helpful. There is a lot to take into consideration, like peoples investment timeframes, if your holding for 2-5 years, maybe a fourth downgrade isn't the B all and end all?
If we were all to follow your advice and sell out now, and a fourth downgrade didn't eventuate, would you be here to financially compensate us? No, and I wouldn't expect it. But that proves my previous point that its much easier to criticise from the sidelines when you're not invested, than it would be to make those calls when your own money is on the line.

What about the possibility that a 4th downgrade is priced in? The SP didn't drop after the HY result because of it exceeding HY guidance, it dropped because of the uncertainty around FY results. Would seem to me as though a decent amount of downside risk is priced in.
My reckoning is that based on FY21 of 31 cps, (third official downgrade) at $9.90 they're trading on a forward PE of 32. That's the sort of PE they used to trade on years ago when they were growing really strongly and future growth was all but assured. That official revised company forecast is predicated on a significant recovery in Q4 sales, (which may or may not happen), and the very latest data we have is reports from Craigs based on their management visit in February that January 2021 sales are down 70% year on year. I can't make it any clearer than that. Join the dots. If I thought there was money to be made in the near future, believe me I wouldn't be on the sidelines.


Look, if it would help, I could put the boot into ATM for a bit :)?
Entry to the exclusive club isn't free...you have to earn your stripes :D Besides I'm tired and someone else needs to be lead dog for a while to earn their dog biscuit.

[Gregnz]

My reckoning is that based on FY21 of 31 cps, (third official downgrade) at $9.90 they're trading on a forward PE of 32. That's the sort of PE they used to trade on years ago when they were growing really strongly and future growth was all but assured. That official revised company forecast is predicated on a significant recovery in Q4 sales, (which may or may not happen), and the very latest data we have is reports from Craigs based on their management visit in February that January 2021 sales are down 70% year on year. I can't make it any clearer than that. Join the dots. If I thought there was money to be made in the near future, believe me I wouldn't be on the sidelines.

I can't dispute the facts, but we are basing that 70% on one investment firms visit? I'm yet to see a single substantial holder notice to indicate that the 87%+ have started selling out? I'm sure they also have access to company visits, and the HY results road show?

[Biscuit]

..... someone else needs to be lead dog for a while to earn their dog biscuit.

As a matter of trivial fact, Biscuit was the name of my old cat.

[winner69]

All should take heed of this B Team .... after all its people like Derek Handley who inspire them to heights of greatness,...esp the bits about doing good for people

Balance in particular has often raved about Derek and Beagle is all for social and planet things.

[tomm]

Greg,as I am trying to learn,are you saying if someone says "downgrades always come in 3's"...then I load up after the 3rd,are you saying there could be a 4th & 5th downgrade...sheesh,this is more difficult than I thought,I may have to stay after class a bit longer.
Well , if this Sp keep going like this, I am totally ok with the 6th or 7th down grade..from whoever predicting it..:t_up:
Lovely to see it touched the $10.00 .

[Joshuatree]

Another thing to consider is Globally there is a big cyclic shift from growth to value stocks with the worry of inflation and the 10 year int rate going up.

[winner69]

I'm not too sure how bull fits into the B Team

But then again the team/gang must have a had a pow wow this morning as bull seems to have convinced Beagle to have a close look at WHS

Now there's abig tip for you

[porkandpuha]

Has it ever crossed your mind that some of the old hands would like to give back a bit and help youngsters avoid those mistakes ?

Has it ever crossed your mind that a condescending, egotistical, gloating piece of "advice" is hardly going to generate a high uptake among these supposed youngsters you think are listening?

If you need to demand your respect from others by pointing towards age, number of posts or historical investing decisions.... chances are you have lost all likelihood that the desired outcome will be achieved.

[porkandpuha]

I'm not too sure how bull fits into the B Team

But then again the team/gang must have a had a pow wow this morning as bull seems to have convinced Beagle to have a close look at WHS

Now there's abig tip for you

The difference is, Bull is capable of giving a negative viewpoint on a stock without sounding like an "I know better than you" douche about it.

[Beagle]

I'm not too sure how bull fits into the B Team

But then again the team/gang must have a had a pow wow this morning as bull seems to have convinced Beagle to have a close look at WHS

Now there's abig tip for you

I've been thinking about it and mulling it over ever since the first profit upgrade and then the second upgrade has really got me scratching my head. Its absolutely nuts how they've milked the current retail environment. Can it continue, I don;t know but on a forward estimated PE of only 6 its pretty hard to resist having a punt again especially with TA looking so good.

Always better and safer to buy in an uptrend than a downtrend eh ;) As much as I dislike going back to something that hasn't really worked before those numbers are absolutely stellar !!

[tomm]

WOW..... ASX beat it to $9.65AUD = $10.33 NZD ! Unbelievable , love it! Wondering who have missed the boat...?
Now..., how many down grades do you want...?

[winner69]

Beagle you were brought up to listen to your elders no matter how condescending and derogatory they were with their discussion? I think times have moved on. Times have certainly changed. My parents brought me up to chart my own course in life, so far I'm quite content with how its going.
Yes I’m sure many of you have been investing for a very very very long time, it doesn’t always mean your right. I know plenty of young people who could give the older generation a run for their money with many aspects in life, financial markets included.
I guess some of us just choose to display our opinions differently without the need to repeat ourselves. I think we get the point that another downgrade is a very real possibility, after all we have been reminded as such on so so so many many occasions.


I've been thinking about it and mulling it over ever since the first profit upgrade and then the second upgrade has really got me scratching my head. Its absolutely nuts how they've milked the current retail environment. Can it continue, I don;t know but on a forward estimated PE of only 6 its pretty hard to resist having a punt again especially with TA looking so good.

Always better and safer to buy in an uptrend than a downtrend eh ;)

....and upgrades come in threes eh

[Beagle]

....and upgrades come in threes eh

They probably do, I need to check with Balance ;)

[BlackPeter]

WOW..... ASX beat it to $9.65AUD = $10.33 NZD ! Unbelievable , love it! Wondering who have missed the boat...?
Now..., how many down grades do you want...?

Still in a confirmed downtrend - SP ways below MA50, MA100 and MA200. Sure - this could be the moment where the trend changes (at some stage it has to, hasn't it?), however - odds are not in your favor. Remember - the trend is your friend.

12350

Anyway, good luck.

[tomm]

Still in a confirmed downtrend - SP ways below MA50, MA100 and MA200. Sure - this could be the moment where the trend changes (at some stage it has to, hasn't it?), however - odds are not in your favor. Remember - the trend is your friend.

12350

Anyway, good luck.

Gaps closure.

[DownTownJr]

Good day on the ASX, but let's not get ahead. A2M still has a long way to come up and it's going to need a lot of good news to turn the tide. I'm holding for now, but it's also only a small % of my portfolio, so easy to do so. Currently I am down 17% on A2M.

[Pegasus2000]

https://www.goodreturns.co.nz/article/976518226/a2-drives-share-market-recovery.html?utm_source=GR&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=GoodReturns+Market+Report+for+2+Mar+2 021

Infant formula exporter A2 Milk Company was driving the recovery today, rising 5.5% to $10.02.
Trethewey said investors may have been encouraged by a filing to the NZX today which showed a top executive had not sold any shares, despite being in the post-earnings window where he was able.

[Baa_Baa]

https://www.goodreturns.co.nz/article/976518226/a2-drives-share-market-recovery.html?utm_source=GR&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=GoodReturns+Market+Report+for+2+Mar+2 021

Infant formula exporter A2 Milk Company was driving the recovery today, rising 5.5% to $10.02.
Trethewey said investors may have been encouraged by a filing to the NZX today which showed a top executive had not sold any shares, despite being in the post-earnings window where he was able.

Clutching at straws, when does the insiders trading window close? Rejoice then if he hasn’t sold. Market is too quick looking for any signs of positivity, follow the money, not the commentators here or anywhere else. Own your decisions, only you can make them.

[Pegasus2000]

Clutching at straws, when does the insiders trading window close? Rejoice then if he hasn’t sold. Market is too quick looking for any signs of positivity, follow the money, not the commentators here or anywhere else. Own your decisions, only you can make them.

Yes, the boat is still shaking, better to wait......

[Ruby]

https://www.newstalkzb.co.nz/on-demand/week-on-demand/
Weds 03 March @ 06:15.
Andrew Kelleher,financial adviser talking to Mike Hosking this morning.

Overnight Global dairy auction prices up.
Global dairy price index; up 15%
Whole milk powder prices(WMP); up 21%....great for Mataura Valley Milk (MVM)
Listen very closely when you get to 3:19.
Anectdotal comments of exporting companies noting a real surge in demand for NZ cash products (includes health supplements,INFANT FORMULA,manuka honey).
"Chinese consumer turning back in volume to their trusted brands..."

[Akane]

WOW..... ASX beat it to $9.65AUD = $10.33 NZD ! Unbelievable , love it! Wondering who have missed the boat...?
Now..., how many down grades do you want...?

5% done, only another 95% to go :rolleyes:

[percy]

https://www.newstalkzb.co.nz/on-demand/week-on-demand/
Weds 03 March @ 06:15.
Andrew Kelleher,financial adviser talking to Mike Hosking this morning.

Overnight Global dairy auction prices up.
Global dairy price index; up 15%
Whole milk powder prices(WMP); up 21%....great for Mataura Valley Milk (MVM)
Listen very closely when you get to 3:19.
Anectdotal comments of exporting companies noting a real surge in demand for NZ cash products (includes health supplements,INFANT FORMULA,manuka honey).
"Chinese consumer turning back in volume to their trusted brands..."

Interesting post.
Infant Formula =ATM and SML.
Manuka Honey = CVT Comvita.
Health Supplements= PAZ Pharmazen [trading on www.usx.co.nz]

[LEMON]

Saw this advertised last night via social media.
Felt I would share.
Bay of plenty company I believe?
Some popular products they produce already.

https://lewisroadcreamery.co.nz/collections/latest-products/products/a2-protein-homogenised-milk

[Gregnz]

Saw this advertised last night via social media.
Felt I would share.
Bay of plenty company I believe?
Some popular products they produce already.

https://lewisroadcreamery.co.nz/collections/latest-products/products/a2-protein-homogenised-milk

Thats great news. Need many more companies to start producing A2 milk to expand the overall market. Not cheap though, Lewis Rd A2 1.5L for $6.50. I currently pay $6.50 for 2L Anchor A2. Lewis Rd target the top end of the premium customer segment.

[Biscuit]

https://www.newstalkzb.co.nz/on-demand/week-on-demand/
Weds 03 March @ 06:15.
Andrew Kelleher,financial adviser talking to Mike Hosking this morning.

Overnight Global dairy auction prices up.
Global dairy price index; up 15%
Whole milk powder prices(WMP); up 21%....great for Mataura Valley Milk (MVM)
Listen very closely when you get to 3:19.
Anectdotal comments of exporting companies noting a real surge in demand for NZ cash products (includes health supplements,INFANT FORMULA,manuka honey).
"Chinese consumer turning back in volume to their trusted brands..."

Will be interesting to see what effect that has on ATM. I'd think we should see a lift today on the back of this, particularly if it is perceived as chinese consumer turning back to "trusted brands" - but what evidence is there for that assumption?

[MichelleH]

Zuru launched/partnership A2 Milk, yesterday, with producers "Trust Code"


https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:6771949228144107520/

[Balance]

Clutching at straws, when does the insiders trading window close? Rejoice then if he hasn’t sold. Market is too quick looking for any signs of positivity, follow the money, not the commentators here or anywhere else. Own your decisions, only you can make them.


https://www.goodreturns.co.nz/article/976518226/a2-drives-share-market-recovery.html?utm_source=GR&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=GoodReturns+Market+Report+for+2+Mar+2 021

Infant formula exporter A2 Milk Company was driving the recovery today, rising 5.5% to $10.02.
Trethewey said investors may have been encouraged by a filing to the NZX today which showed a top executive had not sold any shares, despite being in the post-earnings window where he was able.

Worse than clutching at straws - Trethewey obviously has no idea of the history of executives selling in this company and is feeding wrong information to the market!

What's unbelievable is that he is a portfolio manager at Milford!

Exhibit 1 :

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/ATM/358551/329100.pdf

Peter Nathan exercised 800,000 options into shares at 63c per share - 24 August 2020.

Exhibit 2 :

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/ATM/358806/329507.pdf

Peter Nathan sold 750,000 shares at between $19.90 to $20.34 - 27 August 2020.

Executives have to exercise their options first, before they can sell - with disclosure only after the sale!

[Ruby]

AS has been noted before,most of the exec team have sold various parcels of shares over the years within there allotted window to sell each year.
Here is one example from 2018,Peter Nathan sold 170,000 odd at 11.99 & added some options.
It is hardly as if last year was something new.GB sold heaps in the early days in the $1-2 range.
It has become a prickly subject mainly because of Jayne & her somewhat mercenary approach.
You can't blame GB, Nathan & Sussan M enjoying some of the fruits of their labour.
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/ATM/323032/285723.pdf

[Balance]

AS has been noted before,most of the exec team have sold various parcels of shares over the years within there allotted window to sell each year.
Here is one example from 2018,Peter Nathan sold 170,000 odd at 11.99 & added some options.
It is hardly as if last year was something new.GB sold heaps in the early days in the $1-2 range.
It has become a prickly subject mainly because of Jayne & her somewhat mercenary approach.
You can't blame GB, Nathan & Sussan M enjoying some of the fruits of their labour.
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/ATM/323032/285723.pdf

Nobody is blaming them (good on them, I say) but here's two observations:

1. They aggressively sold last year after a bullish Annual Results which was downgraded a month later.

2. How did Peter Nathan come upon another 320,000 shares via performance options, given the disastrous results from Asia Pacific?

Then, there's the Milford manager with his misinformation.

[Ruby]

Well,without knowing when those performance rights were originally given and what the terms and dates to achieve required KPI's who would know.
Cam Wallace of Air NZ was issued on 4-Nov-2020 ,367,299 rights at no cost.... and he had left the company !!!

[Ruby]

Nobody is blaming them (good on them, I say) but here's two observations:

1. They aggressively sold last year after a bullish Annual Results which was downgraded a month later.

2. How did Peter Nathan come upon another 320,000 shares via performance options, given the disastrous results from Asia Pacific?

Then, there's the Milford manager with his misinformation.
All Trethewey said was "investors may have been encouraged"...an observation into investors thinking,he wasn't stating it as a fact.
Given Milfords history,I think your response is a little emotional...."misinformation" is a little strong.

[Balance]

All Trethewey said was "investors may have been encouraged"...an observation into investors thinking,he wasn't stating it as a fact.
Given Milfords history,I think your response is a little emotional...."misinformation" is a little strong.

I expect very high standards from Milford, and of all fee earning professionals actually.

Let’s see whether Peter sells any shares, shall we?

[Rawz]

Up another 4% this morning. Those with low conviction could exit at these prices and be fairly happy I would say

[Balance]

Up another 4% this morning. Those with low conviction could exit at these prices and be fairly happy I would say

Did the same thing over the first two downgrades.

[Ruby]

Agree,but as I said,he wasn't stating a fact,he was 'thinking out aloud' looking for a possible explanation for the sudden uptick in the price in absence of any other announcements,it was up 7.55% in ASX.
As in,if asked why he thought it was up,he may not have seen any particular reason,so surmised on punters thinking.
As you say,it's not all about the numbers.

[causecelebre]

Pushing into resistance around 10.50. Be interesting to see if it hold's or we get a break out.

[Gregnz]

Up another 4% this morning. Those with low conviction could exit at these prices and be fairly happy I would say

Playing a bit of catchup as the NZX has been lagging the ASX close lately. A great trading stock at the moment. I’m sure a few kiwi punters have been caught short selling prior to the ASX opening lately, only for the ASX to open higher. Only time will tell if it opens up and continues its upwards trend on the Asx today (it was the biggest gainer on the Asx yesterday which makes for a nice change).

[Ruby]

It is a pleasant change..,ATM is the biggest gainer on the NZX this morning.

[Balance]

It is a pleasant change..,ATM is the biggest gainer on the NZX this morning.

Classic Japanese water torture?

Turn the dripping tap off for a few hours and the victim thinks of how wonderful life is!

[Gregnz]

Classic Japanese water torture?

Turn the dripping tap off for a few hours and the victim thinks of how wonderful life is!

Seems ok to me for actual holders of the stock to feel slightly positive, clearly that Irk’s you as a non holder.

[Ruby]

Classic Japanese water torture?

Turn the dripping tap off for a few hours and the victim thinks of how wonderful life is!
I'm just trying to work out how to turn off your 'dripping tap' :-) :-)

[Gregnz]

Wait for the trend change to happen, we are a way off yet. But plenty of retail investors waiting to pull the trigger on A2. Only have to take a quick look at some of the investment Facebook pages to notice that every man and his dog want to
buy in. Couple that with some 6.3% short positions still open. Could make for some interesting gap closures.

[Biscuit]

Classic Japanese water torture?

Turn the dripping tap off for a few hours and the victim thinks of how wonderful life is!

The sun is shining (at least outside my office window), the birds are singing, life is good, there are no victims here, just players and investors.

[Getty]

mmm, talk about one swallow making a summer...

[Balance]

Seems ok to me for actual holders of the stock to feel slightly positive, clearly that Irk’s you as a non holder.

Does not affect me one iota - just stating the obvious which you miss as usual with your one eye closed (from the bruising?). :D

[Gregnz]

Does not affect me one iota - just stating the obvious which you miss as usual with your one eye closed (from the bruising?). :D

I think we’d be stating the obvious if we said you had a unbalanced negative view point, but we don’t feel the need to state the obvious.

[Ruby]

Does not affect me one iota - just stating the obvious which you miss as usual with your one eye closed (from the bruising?). :D
Ya can't blame us,it might not hold,but makes a change from incessant "told you so's"...that is real torture lol.

[JohnnyTheHorse]

This is completely expected price behavior. What I'm looking for from a trading perspective is this to top out around the current price, then pull back towards the previous lows, but set a higher low and form a tightening range within that.

Any talk of a long term trend change is ridiculous. Even if we do get a weekly trend change (which at a minimum takes weeks to play out), we would still just be looking for a monthly lower high (i.e. still in monthly downtrend). With current fundamental state of the company I will not be buying a weekly trend change (if it eventually happens) as the risk of a gap down open on another downgrade or bad news is just too high.

[winner69]

See PaySauce and Arborgen displaced ATM on NZX leader board

Good company though

[Ruby]

mmm, talk about one swallow making a summer...
One swallow is better than 3 old buzzards that have been circling for weeks LOL

[Getty]

I'll have to swallow that! lol

[alokdhir]

All big moves down ATM did classic super fast rebound to next resistance before making new low in next 2-3 months ...

So lets hope soon it leaves this bad habit and actually fully retraces its down move ...first signs will be trading over 10.50 :cool:

[HKG2301]

Does not affect me one iota - just stating the obvious which you miss as usual with your one eye closed (from the bruising?). :D

With all due respect, I'm beginning to see how an individual can clock up tens of thousands of posts on this forum. The vast majority simply bickering and juvenile point-scoring.

It. Is. So. Tiresome.

Get a life mate.

:t_down:

[porkandpuha]

Couple that with some 6.3% short positions still open. Could make for some interesting gap closures.

Will be interesting to see that data updated on shortman later today to reflect Feb 25th which was reporting day.

[tomm]

Common Balance , jump on the boat , I have spare ticket from the black market , be quick. :t_up:

[porkandpuha]

With all due respect, I'm beginning to see how an individual can clock up tens of thousands of posts on this forum. The vast majority simply bickering and juvenile point-scoring.

It. Is. So. Tiresome.

Get a life mate.

:t_down:

I recently found the ignore button. It makes for a lot faster reading and catching up on the pages of comments :t_up:

[Getty]

In my opinion, the Ignore button is the bury your head in the sand button.

Better to know all opinions, & life has taught me that wisdom can come from some of the most obscure places...

[Biscuit]

I recently found the ignore button. It makes for a lot faster reading and catching up on the pages of comments :t_up:

It's a forum. People are supposed to give their view. Posters who don't want an argument - easy, don't argue!

[Ruby]

To be fair,I wouldn't want to put these guys on ignore,it's not like the crazies on HC.There are obviously some very intelligent commentators on here,they just need to leave out the petty point scoring & I told you so's...it only demeans them.

[porkandpuha]

In my opinion, the Ignore button is the bury your head in the sand button.

Better to know all opinions, & life has taught me that wisdom can come from some of the most obscure places...

I prefer to weed them out and stick to reading opinions I find value in. Much the same way I go about choosing any type of news.

[tomm]

I prefer to weed them out and stick to reading opinions I find value in. Much the same way I go about choosing any type of news.
When I see a bunch of names with under 30 post and start talking non relevant , I put them all in the bin.
And... you can release them whenever you like, sometimes when you like .

[Balance]

I prefer to weed them out and stick to reading opinions I find value in. Much the same way I go about choosing any type of news.

Such is life. Ignorance is bliss.

Next.

[Biscuit]

I prefer to weed them out and stick to reading opinions I find value in. Much the same way I go about choosing any type of news.

You might find them annoying but their opinions are worth listening to. I cannot for the life of me understand why someone would go on a forum and put other posters on ignore!! Its not like they are your demented aunt who bails you up every Sunday after church to sell you AMWAY.

[Ruby]

demean1

/dɪˈmiːn/
https://ssl.gstatic.com/dictionary/static/promos/20181204/pronunciation.svgLearn to pronounce
(https://www.google.com/search?q=how+to+pronounce+demean&stick=H4sIAAAAAAAAAOMIfcRowS3w8sc9YSn9SWtOXmPU5OIN KMrPK81LzkwsyczPExLiYglJLcoV4pLi4GJLSc1NTcyzYlFiSs 3jWcQqnpFfrlCSr1AA1JEP1JKqAFEAAMRmN3NXAAAA&pron_lang=en&pron_country=gb&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwjkuoOm3ZLvAhVUfX0KHQedBSEQ3eEDegQIARAJ)



verb
gerund or present participle: demeaning




cause a severe loss in the dignity of and respect for (someone or something).

[Ggcc]

In my opinion, the Ignore button is the bury your head in the sand button.

Better to know all opinions, & life has taught me that wisdom can come from some of the most obscure places...
You might find that balance has a biased approach. He generally has a balanced point of view and even changed his mind with PEB when things started to happen. He is quite happy to swallow his pride and admit he was wrong. Many on here are not in that category. I won't ignore him, but you and anyone is more than welcome to do so if they know the market better than him. he has been correct so far with ATM and could have saved people lots of money, including myself if they had listened..

[Getty]

You might find that balance has a biased approach. He generally has a balanced point of view and even changed his mind with PEB when things started to happen. He is quite happy to swallow his pride and admit he was wrong. Many on here are not in that category. I won't ignore him, but you and anyone is more than welcome to do so if they know the market better than him. he has been correct so far with ATM and could have saved people lots of money, including myself if they had listened..

Did you click on the wrong Quote?
I have no intention of ignoring anyone.

[Ggcc]

Did you click on the wrong Quote?
I have no intention of ignoring anyone.
My bad. I was trying to add to your post not put it down.

[Getty]

Ta, all good.

[porkandpuha]

You might find that balance has a biased approach. He generally has a balanced point of view and even changed his mind with PEB when things started to happen. He is quite happy to swallow his pride and admit he was wrong. Many on here are not in that category. I won't ignore him, but you and anyone is more than welcome to do so if they know the market better than him. he has been correct so far with ATM and could have saved people lots of money, including myself if they had listened..

All probably true, and I for one am not going to engage in trying to dispute any of that. Doesn't make the egotistical comments any more tolerable though so happy to proceed..

[Akane]

This is completely expected price behavior. What I'm looking for from a trading perspective is this to top out around the current price, then pull back towards the previous lows, but set a higher low and form a tightening range within that.

Any talk of a long term trend change is ridiculous. Even if we do get a weekly trend change (which at a minimum takes weeks to play out), we would still just be looking for a monthly lower high (i.e. still in monthly downtrend). With current fundamental state of the company I will not be buying a weekly trend change (if it eventually happens) as the risk of a gap down open on another downgrade or bad news is just too high.

Completely expected. Heavy selling on open on news day, slight rebound over the course of a few days, then back down to somewhere in between the ATL and the "new rebound".

There's fanboys who were creaming themselves over the classic bull trap makes me giggle. :rolleyes:

[Gregnz]

Completely expected. Heavy selling on open on news day, slight rebound over the course of a few days, then back down to somewhere in between the ATL and the "new rebound".

There's fanboys who were creaming themselves over the classic bull trap makes me giggle. :rolleyes:

Use those opportunities to your advantage. You can be a long term holder, while also trading decent sized parcels. Goes a long way towards bringing down someones average buy in.
The pattern this stock follows doesn't take a rocket scientist to take advantage of.

[Akane]

Use those opportunities to your advantage. You can be a long term holder, while also trading decent sized parcels. Goes a long way towards bringing down someones average buy in.
The pattern this stock follows doesn't take a rocket scientist to take advantage of.

You're right, I'm still licking my wounds from the recent dip. I need to pick myself up, find more courage to engage a lot more aggressively.

[Gregnz]

You're right, I'm still licking my wounds from the recent dip. I need to pick myself up, find more courage to engage a lot more aggressively.

A lot of people sitting on the sidelines here, who could have made significant $$ over the past week using ATM as a trading stock. You don't have to wait until you're convinced the trend has changed to capitalise on the dual listed status and the influence the ASX has on open most days (same with most dual listed stocks). (Just feel sorry for the Kiwis who bought at the top each morning without taking into consideration the possible effect around midday when the ASX opens).

[tomm]

A lot of people sitting on the sidelines here, who could have made significant $$ over the past week using ATM as a trading stock. You don't have to wait until you're convinced the trend has changed to capitalise on the dual listed status and the influence the ASX has on open most days (same with most dual listed stocks). (Just feel sorry for the Kiwis who bought at the top each morning without taking into consideration the possible effect around midday when the ASX opens).
This stock is the most volatile on NZX , this is normal.
Nice to see it held above $10.00.

[HKG2301]

A lot of people sitting on the sidelines here, who could have made significant $$ over the past week using ATM as a trading stock. You don't have to wait until you're convinced the trend has changed to capitalise on the dual listed status and the influence the ASX has on open most days (same with most dual listed stocks). (Just feel sorry for the Kiwis who bought at the top each morning without taking into consideration the possible effect around midday when the ASX opens).

I take your point and I'm doing exactly what you suggest, taking advantage of this price volatility, but 'The ASX Effect' also has me scratching my head...

If you were an ATM shareholder with a desire to sell on the NZX, why oh why would you wait until 1pm to ask $10.05 say, when you could easily have sold at $10.40 a couple of hours earlier? No news mind, other than the usual noise.

And this happens most days of the week.

Question: is there a minimum lot size on the ASX? Is it just easier/cheaper to manipulate the price of a dual-listed (and heavily shorted) share, any share, through the NZX, given the lack of min order size?

[Beagle]

I prefer to weed them out and stick to reading opinions I find value in. Much the same way I go about choosing any type of news.

Anyone who finds my posts irksome is most welcome indeed to add me to their ignore list.

No doubt holders will be relieved a little to see this bounce a bit yesterday but keep in mind its still in a confirmed downtrend.

[tomm]

Anyone who finds my posts irksome is most welcome indeed to add me to their ignore list.

No doubt holders will be relieved a little to see this bounce a bit yesterday but keep in mind its still in a confirmed downtrend.
It is an assumption down trend as we speak due to lots of rumours.. there is no confirmed as you said , the SP is just reflecting the company for the moment , but we will never be sure when this stock will lift off. The company has a unique product on hand.

[JohnnyTheHorse]

Pull up a 5min chart on A2M and take a look... been trading in a 2 cent range for hours on fairly low volume. Pretty crazy after the volatility we've seen.

[BlackPeter]

It is an assumption down trend as we speak due to lots of rumours.. there is no confirmed as you said , the SP is just reflecting the company for the moment , but we will never be sure when this stock will lift off. The company has a unique product on hand.


A confirmed downtrend is a downtrend confirmed by several technical indicators.

12354

In this case: ATM is currently below the MA50 (the green line above), it is below the MA 100 (the pink line above), below the MA 200 (the red line above) and (less frequently used, but still more concerning) below the MA400 (the orange line above). As well - trend is past the cross of death (MA50 dropping below MA 200);

Anybody with eyes would see that, but sorry, I do not have a braille version of the graph for you.

Which other indicators would you need to recognize a downtrend?

[winner69]

Hey BP - I don't think we can even say its currently in down trend contained in a long term uptrend. It seems the break below 1300 put paid to that as we got a lower low

Yes?

[Cottagestyles]

A confirmed downtrend is a downtrend confirmed by several technical indicators.

12354

In this case: ATM is currently below the MA50 (the green line above), it is below the MA 100 (the pink line above), below the MA 200 (the red line above) and (less frequently used, but still more concerning) below the MA400 (the orange line above). As well - trend is past the cross of death (MA50 dropping below MA 200);

Anybody with eyes would see that, but sorry, I do not have a braille version of the graph for you.

Which other indicators would you need to recognize a downtrend?


Some posters might like a little aloe vera to go with that.
BP SAVAGE :p

[ralph]

Saw this advertised last night via social media.
Felt I would share.
Bay of plenty company I believe?
Some popular products they produce already.

https://lewisroadcreamery.co.nz/collections/latest-products/products/a2-protein-homogenised-milk
Hi Lemon They are really good I use their products all the time worth that bit extra for top quality !! even though I invest in the opposition. Doh

[Baa_Baa]

Hey BP - I don't think we can even say its currently in down trend contained in a long term uptrend. It seems the break below 1300 put paid to that as we got a lower low

Yes?

Hate to say it, but while ATM is undoubtably below a lot of longer MA's, it is most certainly not in a long term downtrend. It might seem long for anyone suffering the recent medium term down trend, but definitely not long term.

You have to back out to a monthly chart to see that the uptrend from 2005 is rock solid, and even the steeper long term uptrend from 2010 is intact. It would have to close below about $5.00 to break that long term up trend.

If you talking about the 2015 very steep uptrend to mid-2019, and consider that to be long, then yes it broke down from that about a year and half ago, so that's not really long term trend news. Basically in TA terms, it's range trading for the past three years. That in itself should give the 'longs' something to ponder.

The wheels of exhurberance in the market came off in August 2020 and have not yet reattached. Is the company going broke, heck no way. It it a good time to buy, well who would know for sure, I guess it's about ones personal risk/reward profile. The day to day chatter is so meaningless and irrelevant when one takes a long term view.

gltah

[Baa_Baa]

Here's a thought for the genuine longs. Sharetrader and other discussion groups is akin to watching your feet in a marathon. Look to the horizon instead. The bumps and opportunities along the way will make themselves apparent, attend to them yourself.

gltah

[Beagle]

A confirmed downtrend is a downtrend confirmed by several technical indicators.

12354

In this case: ATM is currently below the MA50 (the green line above), it is below the MA 100 (the pink line above), below the MA 200 (the red line above) and (less frequently used, but still more concerning) below the MA400 (the orange line above). As well - trend is past the cross of death (MA50 dropping below MA 200);

Anybody with eyes would see that, but sorry, I do not have a braille version of the graph for you.

Which other indicators would you need to recognize a downtrend?

:lol: :lol: Post of the week for sure. You're now a fully accredited member of the "B" team :cool:

[see weed]

Pull up a 5min chart on A2M and take a look... been trading in a 2 cent range for hours on fairly low volume. Pretty crazy after the volatility we've seen.
Yes, I noticed that too. Maybe the shorters have left the building until the next downgrade. If not another downgrade then congrats to anyone who got in below $9 last Thursday 25/2/21, $8.92 the low for that day and the year so far. Could be another uptrend starting in the last 4 days:t_up:.

[Balance]

https://www.interest.co.nz/opinion/109300/one-time-glamour-stock-a2-milk-company-has-seen-its-value-more-halved-little-six

Another day, another broker downgrade.

[Beagle]

https://www.interest.co.nz/opinion/109300/one-time-glamour-stock-a2-milk-company-has-seen-its-value-more-halved-little-six

Another day, another broker downgrade.

Thanks for sharing. Interestingly they have downgraded to eps of 31 cps for FY21...same as some old dog on here ;)...and they're not predicting much of a recovery in FY22.

[winner69]

Thanks for sharing. Interestingly they have downgraded to eps of 31 cps for FY21...same as some old dog on here ;)...and they're not predicting much of a recovery in FY22.

Legend Beagle seems happy that guru Forbar analysts agree with him .....usual response is ‘don’t have much time for Forbar’

So F21 eps 31 cents it is

The mentioned Chelsea is a pretty switched on person ...and nice to go with it.

[winner69]

Thanks for sharing. Interestingly they have downgraded to eps of 31 cps for FY21...same as some old dog on here ;)...and they're not predicting much of a recovery in FY22.

EPS +17% in F22 and +33% in F23 not too shabby in the great reset

[dreamcatcher]

UBS Buy rating TP NZ$15.60 and number 3 on NZ top 10 buys. For some an opportunity for others a train wreck disaster but certainly interesting year ahead............ Time has arrived to place your bets folks

[Sideshow Bob]

The word takeover got bandied around a bit a few years ago (at least on here), when A2 were taking over the world. All quiet now.

Is this the cheapest/easiest it is going to be? Reasonably open share register. Market cap >50% off its peak. Production capacity locked in. Still plenty of cash.

Market cap $7.5b (hey they want $4.5b USD for Rocket Lab).

Get taken over by someone with more clout, deeper pockets?

Or everyone else just rowing their own A2 boat???

[tomm]

https://www.interest.co.nz/opinion/109300/one-time-glamour-stock-a2-milk-company-has-seen-its-value-more-halved-little-six

Another day, another broker downgrade.
What do you mean by " another down grade" ??... missed the boat and now stand there yelling out for revenge lol.
Should have jump on the boat when it was $9ish.

[Ruby]

:lol: :lol: Post of the week for sure. You're now a fully accredited member of the "B" team :cool:
Sheesh,how many 'posts of the week' are there...?Should you not give it out once at the end?


Post of the week in my opinion. I was brought up to respect my elders and listen to them. How some others have been brought up is quite frankly anyone's guess. Frankly I really like Balance's politically incorrect style of posting, (its quite refreshing), as much as the content.
What's the bet that the B team (yourself included because your user name also starts with B):) have all been successfully investing for a very, very, very long time.
But what would we know.... ;)
To be clear because some people think I am just on here to gloat, I am not. I think the chances of another downgrade for FY21 resulting in major broker downgrades for FY22 and beyond is extremely serious and very real. In my view this goes a lot further down the rat hole...nobody can say the B team didn't warn them !



Last edited by Beagle; 02-03-2021 at 02:00 PM.

[sb9]

The word takeover got bandied around a bit a few years ago (at least on here), when A2 were taking over the world. All quiet now.

Is this the cheapest/easiest it is going to be? Reasonably open share register. Market cap >50% off its peak. Production capacity locked in. Still plenty of cash.

Market cap $7.5b (hey they want $4.5b USD for Rocket Lab).

Get taken over by someone with more clout, deeper pockets?

Or everyone else just rowing their own A2 boat???

I'm damn sure few closed door meetings are taking place around this matter in some parts of world and they'll take time to eventuate.

[Balance]

UBS Buy rating TP NZ$15.60 and number 3 on NZ top 10 buys. For some an opportunity for others a train wreck disaster but certainly interesting year ahead............ Time has arrived to place your bets folks

Same UBS who had a TP of $20.50 just before the 18 Dec 2020 downgrade?


https://www.sharecafe.com.au/2020/12/18/a2m-ubs-rates-the-stock-as-buy-6/







BROKER NEWS (https://www.sharecafe.com.au/category/broker-news/)
December 18, 2020

A2M – UBS rates the stock as Buy

By Broker News | More Articles by Broker News (https://www.sharecafe.com.au/author/broker-news/)
RELATED COMPANIESTHE A2 MILK COMPANY LIMITED (https://www.sharecafe.com.au/company/the-a2-milk-company-limited/)

a2 Milk is in a trading halt ahead of a potential update to its guidance.
Some issues facing the company include a slower-than-expected recovery in infant formula sales via daigou channels and surplus channel inventory, suggests UBS. The broker believes demand will return over time with receding covid led disruptions.
Choosing to look through the short-term earnings volatility, UBS maintains its Buy rating with a target of NZ$20.50.
Sector: Food, Beverage & Tobacco.

Current Price is $A13.28. Target price not assessed.

[bull....]

NZ version of tesla A2 MILK



12356

[Balance]

What do you mean by " another down grade" ??... missed the boat and now stand there yelling out for revenge lol.
Should have jump on the boat when it was $9ish.

Remember this from you on 18 Dec 2020?


No mate, just buy the dip , it will come back.

Tomm's definition of comes back = going lower! :t_up:

[bull....]

12360

clear warning signs with rsi divergence on the weekly chart and long term break of trendline


12359

clear down trend using moving averages

[Balance]

Thanks for sharing. Interestingly they have downgraded to eps of 31 cps for FY21...same as some old dog on here ;)...and they're not predicting much of a recovery in FY22.

Must be very very very satisfying to see that Forbar is following you (again)?

[Sideshow Bob]

Must be very very very satisfying to see that Forbar is following you (again)?

Speaking for Forbar's, I remember the day, many years ago when I was at uni we did a preso about an NZX company, and we chose AIR NZ. Part of the judges were local Dunedin ForBar staff.

We said AIR was a buy. This is absolutely no sh1t, within the next 2 days ForBar had updated them to a buy....!! Coincidence or not, I don't know.......:lol::lol::lol::lol::lol:

[Rawz]

Speaking for Forbar's, I remember the day, many years ago when I was at uni we did a preso about an NZX company, and we chose AIR NZ. Part of the judges were local Dunedin ForBar staff.

We said AIR was a buy. This is absolutely no sh1t, within the next 2 days ForBar had updated them to a buy....!! Coincidence or not, I don't know.......:lol::lol::lol::lol::lol:

Hahaha that's gold! Good yarn

[Balance]

Speaking for Forbar's, I remember the day, many years ago when I was at uni we did a preso about an NZX company, and we chose AIR NZ. Part of the judges were local Dunedin ForBar staff.

We said AIR was a buy. This is absolutely no sh1t, within the next 2 days ForBar had updated them to a buy....!! Coincidence or not, I don't know......

I have a good friend working for Forbar. Whenever any of their analysts put a 'sell' on a stock after having said stock as a 'buy or hold or accumulate' for a long while, he says that many old timers in the firm know that's the BUY signal and they load up PA. :t_up:

True story.

[BlackPeter]

Hate to say it, but while ATM is undoubtably below a lot of longer MA's, it is most certainly not in a long term downtrend. It might seem long for anyone suffering the recent medium term down trend, but definitely not long term.

You have to back out to a monthly chart to see that the uptrend from 2005 is rock solid, and even the steeper long term uptrend from 2010 is intact. It would have to close below about $5.00 to break that long term up trend.

If you talking about the 2015 very steep uptrend to mid-2019, and consider that to be long, then yes it broke down from that about a year and half ago, so that's not really long term trend news. Basically in TA terms, it's range trading for the past three years. That in itself should give the 'longs' something to ponder.

The wheels of exhurberance in the market came off in August 2020 and have not yet reattached. Is the company going broke, heck no way. It it a good time to buy, well who would know for sure, I guess it's about ones personal risk/reward profile. The day to day chatter is so meaningless and irrelevant when one takes a long term view.

gltah

Absolutely agree ... you are (as far as I can see) the first on this thread talking about a long term downtrend (whatever this is) and then you explain to us in very convincing terms that the stock is not in a long term downtrend. Bingo - you are a genius!

Just in case you missed it - we discussed whether this is a "confirmed" downtrend, not whether it is a "long term" downtrend.

As far as I am concerned - the "confirmed" downtrend started in September / early October 2020 (depending whether you take the first dip under the MA200 or the cross of death as indicator) - and it continued without interruption until today. I have no idea how long this confirmed down trend will last and neither have you or anybody else.

Whether the roughly 6 months so far are long term or not lies in the eyes of the beholder, but as I said - you are the only one talking about "long term downtrend". Just wondering what Sigmund Freud would have to say regarding this phenomena? Whistling in the dark?

Just to clarify - I am just observing. I don't know either how the trend will continue and I suspect at some stage it will turn. However - I have no clue when this will be and from a personal perspective weighing the risks and opportunities would I call ATM at this stage probably fairly valued. Obviously - other people might and will have different views, and I guess the 64 million dollar question is - how fast will ATM's earnings keep growing in future? Anybody who sees continued and sustainable earnings growth of around or above 15% per year would consider the current price as fair or cheap. Just as a comparison - backwards earning growth CAGR for ATM was 70%, i.e. it is possible (but hey, its easy to get this CAGR if you start with 1 cent EPS in 2012 ...). Anybody who thinks that they are reaching the limits of growth with revenue growth constrained by increased competition and margins concurrently sinking will see them at the current price still as too dear.

In a decade or so we will know, which view was the better guess :):

[Baa_Baa]

Absolutely agree ... you are (as far as I can see) the first on this thread talking about a long term downtrend (whatever this is) and then you explain to us in very convincing terms that the stock is not in a long term downtrend. Bingo - you are a genius!

Just in case you missed it - we discussed whether this is a "confirmed" downtrend, not whether it is a "long term" downtrend.:

You're so condescending BP, "we" did not discuss anything, you said in a post 'confirmed' - yes it is a confirmed downtrend - well done. Winner said 'long term' which I replied to - well depending on the definition of long term, I put it that it's not a long term down trend.

Try to be polite.

[BlackPeter]

You're so condescending BP, "we" did not discuss anything, you said in a post 'confirmed' - yes it is a confirmed downtrend - well done. Winner said 'long term' which I replied to - well depending on the definition of long term, I put it that it's not a long term down trend.

Try to be polite.

... and this statement is not condescending?

BTW - winner mentioned a "long term uptrend" and questioned in the same paragraph, whether it isn't broken.

Sorry - it was you bringing the term "long term downtrend" into the recent discussion. I really would like to help you with that, but facts are facts.

So sorry this hurts your feelings ... how can you fix that :p?

[causecelebre]

This thread is almost as volatile as the stock itself.

[Akane]

Completely expected. Heavy selling on open on news day, slight rebound over the course of a few days, then back down to somewhere in between the ATL and the "new rebound".

There's fanboys who were creaming themselves over the classic bull trap makes me giggle. :rolleyes:

Back to single digit today.

I wish I had today's knowledge, yesterday.

[Balance]

Should turn our minds now to what the new CEO is likely to do over the next 6 months.

Opportunity of a lifetime for him to reset and reposition the company in his own image now that the existing BOD & management have lost so much credibility.

He must have been very aware of the circumstances of Jayne Hrdlicka's appointment & subsequent sudden departure over the divergence of opinion as to what ATM should have focus on - Jayne's long term growth via heavy investment in sales, marketing and promotions vs the short term BOD's desire to maintain EBITDA margin.

So we can assume he would have negotiated a free hand to run the company. If he did not, then he is as useless as a fifth leg on a broken chair and ATM will continue to wallow in uncertainty.

Excerpt from Forbar's downgrade update which is noteworthy : " .... the latest earnings downgrade was "a further unwelcome reminder of [a2's] ATM's opaque channels to market, with very limited visibility (including for management)".

A free hand imo means that David Bortolussi will be taking his time to assess ATM's problematic channels to market before formulating a growth strategy to capitalize on ATM's still strong brand position and market positioning. If he does not, ATM is screwed as the market has gotten ever more competitive as we are aware.

In short, expect a repeat of what Jayne wanted to do but was over-turned by the BOD - Short term pain for long term gain.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Reference :

https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/a2-milk-chief-jayne-hrdlicka-steps-down-20191209-p53i1s.html

Excerpt : " The investor said there were “conflicting messages” between Ms Hrdlicka and chairman David Hearn to investors recently. Ms Hrdlicka’s message was that the “company was in investment mode ... and the investors shouldn’t be concerned about EBITDA returns because it was just purely investing for growth. Yet the chairman said that that wasn’t the case, that the company was very much wanting to deliver a strong EBITDA outcome of 30plus per cent.”

Mr Hearn said a2 had made an agreement with Ms Hrdlicka that she would leave the business.

"We've agreed that this is the right thing and I think it's the right thing for Jayne as well," he said."

[Biscuit]

This thread is almost as volatile as the stock itself.


Sadly, there are many, many posts on this site that say things that no one would say directly to someone's face.

[tomm]

At the moment , there is a little panic from NZ due to Syntlait post an unpredicted outcome and assump that A2M will be down also. I think the insto's have already taken everything into accounts. I see a tremendous support from the buyers.
There were 11 mils of shares changed hand yesterday which is very steady. How about ASX? surprise or unsurprise??
I reckon the tin/cans manufacturer for A2 is also down as such.

[Akane]

Should turn our minds now to what the new CEO is likely to do over the next 6 months.

My gut feeling with zero DD:

CEO will sit on his hands, do nothing, milk it all he can and then leave with a bunch of worthless ATM shares at the end of his tenure, ATM to dive down deeper :t_up:

[Beagle]

Must be very very very satisfying to see that Forbar is following you (again)?

Maybe their analysts have spent a fair bit of time at airports and have noticed that Beagles can sniff trouble coming from a fair way off ;)
They're pretty good at finding food too :D

[swmswm]

Speaking of milking the company and leaving, I must say it gave me some sick satisfaction seeing Hrdlicka getting boo'd at the Australian Open

[silu]

Speaking of milking the company and leaving, I must say it gave me some sick satisfaction seeing Hrdlicka getting boo'd at the Australian Open

She wasn't boo'd. Her general comments about vaccinations were. And I still think she was shafted badly by the Board. I still think her plan of spending heaps on marketing was and is the right way forward. ATM is a marketing company at heart imo.

[Balance]

She wasn't boo'd. Her general comments about vaccinations were. And I still think she was shafted badly by the Board. I still think her plan of spending heaps on marketing was and is the right way forward. ATM is a marketing company at heart imo.

Agreed.

BOD wanted their cake and ate it at the same time. Wanted high margins without more spending. And don’t forget who screwed up going into the UK.

Jayne had the right strategy - long term gain for short term pain - and sp today would be $15 instead of $10 if she had been allowed to follow through with her strategy.

[tomm]

A2 Milk Price Target Raised 2.6% to NZ$16.00/Share by UBS, Very surprise to me.

[Balance]

A2 Milk Price Target Raised 2.6% to NZ$16.00/Share by UBS, Very surprise to me.

Same UBS with a target price of $20.50 before second downgrade.

Wait for the fourth downgrade.

[Akane]

Wait for the fourth downgrade.

Time to bite the pillow again..... I'm still sore and a bit raw from the 3rd downgrade :(

[tomm]

Same UBS with a target price of $20.50 before second downgrade.

Wait for the fourth downgrade.
toot...toot....alll aboard...... exept Balance... toot..toot... just kidding LOL..
Balance has already missed the Boat at $8.92..toot..tooot...

[Balance]

toot...toot....alll aboard...... exept Balance... toot..toot... just kidding LOL..

Talking to the image in your mirror again?

[winner69]

Wonder if Hsrbour Asset still have a pile of shares

Nearly 10% of a couple of their funds

[tomm]

Talking to the image in your mirror again?
I feel it is funny as a long time trader like you still couldn't adapt the trading stocks market. Regarding to upgrade or downgrade , it is ofcourse a certain things for traders to follow, but it is uncertainty also toward the same for stocks which you need to TRADE WITH THEIR MOMENTUM.
When there are enought informations for a certainty , you will have to buy at a cost of the next upgrade.

[Balance]

I feel it is funny as a long time trader like you still couldn't adapt the trading stocks market. Regarding to upgrade or downgrade , it is ofcourse a certain things for traders to follow, but it is uncertainty also toward the same for stocks which you need to TRADE WITH THEIR MOMENTUM.

No need to trade.

Plenty of gains to be made by investing in good quality companies, turnaround stocks, avoiding duds and getting out of stocks (already in one’s portfolio) when their fortunes change, especially due to mismanagement.

[tomm]

No need to trade.

Plenty of gains to be made by investing in good quality companies, turnaround stocks, avoiding duds and getting out of stocks (already in one’s portfolio) when their fortunes change, especially due to mismanagement.
Well , in this case what are you doing in this ATM thread?
When there are enought informations for a certainty , you will have to buy at a cost of the next upgrade.

[Balance]

Well , in this case what are you doing in this ATM thread?
When there are enought informations for a certainty , you will have to buy at a cost of the next upgrade.


You either do not read, or if you read, you cannot comprehend. It’s obvious from your comments & postings.

Seriously, should you even be in the Stockmarket given your inability to comprehend?

[tomm]

You either do not read, or if you read, you cannot comprehend. It’s obvious from your comments & postings.

Seriously, should you even be in the Stockmarket given your inability to comprehend?
Not sure about that.
Lovely to see the SP is pushing back at $10.00 again.

[Beagle]

You either do not read, or if you read, you cannot comprehend. It’s obvious from your comments & postings.

Seriously, should you even be in the Stockmarket given your inability to comprehend?

Unfortunately its going to take BP quite a few days working with the blind institute to translate his chart into Braille ;)

[winner69]

A2 sitting on a $133m paper loss with their Synlait shares at the moment (that's what they are down from June 2020)

[Biscuit]

No need to trade.

Plenty of gains to be made by investing in good quality companies, turnaround stocks, avoiding duds and getting out of stocks (already in one’s portfolio) when their fortunes change, especially due to mismanagement.

Totally agree with that, look to the long term, and anyway I am a crap trader. Maybe I need to do some more after school classes, but I'm not convinced ATM's fortunes have changed. I don't buy the "new competition" argument - good brands don't care about cheap competitors. A2 are a good brand - apart from the fact they have proved their ability to work the brand, their brand is the product. That's a pretty nifty first-mover advantage.

[Balance]

Totally agree with that, look to the long term, and anyway I am a crap trader. Maybe I need to do some more after school classes, but I'm not convinced ATM's fortunes have changed. I don't buy the "new competition" argument - good brands don't care about cheap competitors. A2 are a good brand - apart from the fact they have proved their ability to work the brand, their brand is the product. That's a pretty nifty first-mover advantage.

Did my usual on the ground check of the IF shelves while I was shopping at our local Pak n Save this morning.

They had no Karicare A2 IF on the shelves, just ‘out of stock’ sign so I asked at the counter out of interest when stock would be available.

Lady at the counter checked in her computer and said they expect supply in about a week but there’s limited stock available at another branch (Royal Oak).

As far as I am aware, there’s always been ATM A2 IF available at Countdown, New World and Chemist Warehouse whenever I looked.

ATM - $44
Karicare - $31.99

Signs of the times that parents are catching onto the fact that one of the most established and trusted IF brands has A2 at 37.5% cheaper?

[Beagle]

Totally agree with that, look to the long term, and anyway I am a crap trader. Maybe I need to do some more after school classes, but I'm not convinced ATM's fortunes have changed. I don't buy the "new competition" argument - good brands don't care about cheap competitors. A2 are a good brand - apart from the fact they have proved their ability to work the brand, their brand is the product. That's a pretty nifty first-mover advantage.

You can't get entry to the exclusive "B" team with that post mate. I don't "buy" the zealots so called "unique" product call. Fact is mothers with babies haven't been able to get their hands on a reliable supply of A2 milk powder through daigou channels. They can't stop feeding their babies so they have found another brand from the widespread proliferation of other brands out there and FAR more likely than not they have found that baby does just as well on brand X than it does on brand ATM and seeing as they can get brand X with reliability and regularity and at a FAR more reasonable price, then guess which brand they will stick with ?

Besides that the CCP are really starting to put it out there, extolling the virtues of buy Chinese made and many will do exactly what their leadership tells them too.
I'm calling it first, this is no longer a growth company and ATM will have to expend vast amounts on marketing just to try and defend their market share.

[Snoopy]

A2 sitting on a $133m paper loss with their Synlait shares at the moment (that's what they are down from June 2020)


No one can look back and say there weren't more than a few avalanche warnings on the ATM cash mountain?

SNOOPY

[Ruby]

You can't get entry to the exclusive "B" team with that post mate. I don't "buy" the zealots so called "unique" product call. Fact is mothers with babies haven't been able to get their hands on a reliable supply of A2 milk powder through daigou channels. They can't stop feeding their babies so they have found another brand from the widespread proliferation of other brands out there and FAR more likely than not they have found that baby does just as well on brand X than it does on brand ATM and seeing as they can get brand X with reliability and regularity and at a FAR more reasonable price, then guess which brand they will stick with ?

Besides that the CCP are really starting to put it out there, extolling the virtues of buy Chinese made and many will do exactly what their leadership tells them too.
I'm calling it first, this is no longer a growth company and ATM will have to expend vast amounts on marketing just to try and defend their market share.

Bear in mind A2M's deep connections with Chinese State owned enterprises such as China State Farm,China Animal Husbandry Group(via MVM) & China Bright Dairy (Synlait)
Mate,A2M is practically locals up there.
They now have Bessie Lee as their China based board member,who background & company are pretty impressive.She will have great insights into the best marketing for cut through in the Chinese market.

[JohnnyTheHorse]

I feel it is funny as a long time trader like you still couldn't adapt the trading stocks market. Regarding to upgrade or downgrade , it is ofcourse a certain things for traders to follow, but it is uncertainty also toward the same for stocks which you need to TRADE WITH THEIR MOMENTUM.
When there are enought informations for a certainty , you will have to buy at a cost of the next upgrade.

Hard to understand you most of the time, but am I right that you’re suggesting you’re following the momentum?

[JeremyALD]

I think this thread has become overly pessimistic about A2 if I'm honest.

A2 have been a disappointment in the last year or two, but maybe this is the wake up call they needed. They still have a significant amount of cash and a very strong brand, with healthy metrics continually reported. They can easily navigate uncertainty with their balance sheet, and have the ability to reposition their business if needed. They are in as good a position as any company facing significant headwinds.

They have undoubtedly had factors occur within and outside of their control since Covid, and I believe the latter will fade over time, and the former can be fixed in time. We will see more management changes soon I'm sure, with shareholders having more of a say over selection.

I still am of the view there is a bright future for a2. It might take a few years for them to sort it out and mature into a leading global company, and lessen their reliance on China.

In the meantime they are still very profitable. Let's remember that despite a shocking year they are still going to make a significant profit and $1.3b - $1.4b in revenue is nothing to scoff at.

[Biscuit]

Besides that the CCP are really starting to put it out there, extolling the virtues of buy Chinese made and many will do exactly what their leadership tells them too.
I'm calling it first, this is no longer a growth company and ATM will have to expend vast amounts on marketing just to try and defend their market share.

I think you are seriously degrading the "B-Team" brand there Mr B. What mother anywhere buys food for her baby based on communist party propaganda? They will pay big money for the brands they trust. Competition isn't irrelevant but it isn't the simplistic thing you guys are making it out to be.

[Biscuit]

Did my usual on the ground check of the IF shelves while I was shopping at our local Pak n Save this morning.

They had no Karicare A2 IF on the shelves, just ‘out of stock’ sign so I asked at the counter out of interest when stock would be available.

Lady at the counter checked in her computer and said they expect supply in about a week but there’s limited stock available at another branch (Royal Oak).

As far as I am aware, there’s always been ATM A2 IF available at Countdown, New World and Chemist Warehouse whenever I looked.

ATM - $44
Karicare - $31.99

Signs of the times that parents are catching onto the fact that one of the most established and trusted IF brands has A2 at 37.5% cheaper?

All that means is that Karicare should put up their prices. There is no other logical conclusion from your data, is there?

[Beagle]

Being a B team member means being able to smell the B.S. from a considerable distance. Management have been full of it for months, called from the B team and been consistently right.
Wait for the next downgrade and come back and tell me how Chinese mothers will pay big money for the brands they trust. In the meantime let me define the term "inextricably linked" for Synlait shareholders with this image of how Synlait and ATM have performed in the last 6 months 12363

Chart keeps getting extrapolated in the same direction for the foreseeable future, for both.

[Biscuit]

Being a B team member means being able to smell the B.S. from a considerable distance. Management have been full of it for months, called from the B team and been consistently right.
Wait for the next downgrade and come back and tell me how Chinese mothers will pay big money for the brands they trust. In the meantime let me define the term "inextricably linked" for Synlait shareholders with this image of how Synlait and ATM have performed in the last 6 months 12363

Chart keeps getting extrapolated in the same direction for the foreseeable future, for both.


None of that means anything at all. Come back to me when A2 are selling their IF at the same price as the competition and you will be right that they have lost the brand competition.

[Balance]

None of that means anything at all. Come back to me when A2 are selling their IF at the same price as the competition and you will be right that they have lost the brand competition.

Which is what ATM is effectively doing now - providing subsidies & incentives to its channels to compete with its competitors.

Problem is that the channels are pocketing the subsidies & incentives rather than pass it all onto end consumers - hence the huge drop off in revenues and the drop in EBITDA margins.

This was alerted to by the Craig’s update before the third downgrade.

[Biscuit]

Which is what ATM is effectively doing now - providing subsidies & incentives to its channels to compete with its competitors.

Problem is that the channels are pocketing the subsidies & incentives rather than pass it all onto end consumers - hence the huge drop off in revenues and the drop in EBITDA margins.

This was alerted to by the Craig’s update before the third downgrade.

A2 have seen a major part of their marketing strategy into China implode. Reliance on that channel was not a very sound long term strategy at any rate as they well knew. It is certainly true that they need to re-strategize in China and speed up the changes they were already making. That does not equate to brand damage if they can successfully do that quickly and I think the jury is still out on that. To me the "news" and opinions that are flowing thick and fast at the moment are just noise and are largely just an amplification of what we can all see in the falling share price and profit downgrades.

[Akane]

I think this thread has become overly pessimistic about A2 if I'm honest.

A2 have been a disappointment in the last year or two, but maybe this is the wake up call they needed. They still have a significant amount of cash and a very strong brand, with healthy metrics continually reported. They can easily navigate uncertainty with their balance sheet, and have the ability to reposition their business if needed. They are in as good a position as any company facing significant headwinds.

They have undoubtedly had factors occur within and outside of their control since Covid, and I believe the latter will fade over time, and the former can be fixed in time. We will see more management changes soon I'm sure, with shareholders having more of a say over selection.

I still am of the view there is a bright future for a2. It might take a few years for them to sort it out and mature into a leading global company, and lessen their reliance on China.

In the meantime they are still very profitable. Let's remember that despite a shocking year they are still going to make a significant profit and $1.3b - $1.4b in revenue is nothing to scoff at.

The virus has been around for a year now, actually more than a year since it came out of China, you're telling me management will FINALLY do something about pivoting their sales channels to counter the negative effects of COVID... in due time?

I'm sorry bud but we're already 9 months behind on doing anything to mitigate the effects of COVID, the snowball has already gained momentum, A2 have been left behind already as other companies adapted to changes and keep sodiering on.

[winner69]

The virus has been around for a year now, actually more than a year since it came out of China, you're telling me management will FINALLY do something about pivoting their sales channels to counter the negative effects of COVID... in due time?

I'm sorry bud but we're already 9 months behind on doing anything to mitigate the effects of COVID, the snowball has already gained momentum, A2 have been left behind already as other companies adapted to changes and keep sodiering on.

Caretaker CEO who didn't really want to get involved and a Chairman nowhere to be seen .....totally expected

[Balance]

The virus has been around for a year now, actually more than a year since it came out of China, you're telling me management will FINALLY do something about pivoting their sales channels to counter the negative effects of COVID... in due time?

I'm sorry bud but we're already 9 months behind on doing anything to mitigate the effects of COVID, the snowball has already gained momentum, A2 have been left behind already as other companies adapted to changes and keep sodiering on.

ATM could learn a thing or two from Comvita about pivoting sales channel to be less dependent on daigou.

[Beagle]

I think this thread has become overly pessimistic about A2 if I'm honest.

A2 have been a disappointment in the last year or two, but maybe this is the wake up call they needed. They still have a significant amount of cash and a very strong brand, with healthy metrics continually reported. They can easily navigate uncertainty with their balance sheet, and have the ability to reposition their business if needed. They are in as good a position as any company facing significant headwinds.

They have undoubtedly had factors occur within and outside of their control since Covid, and I believe the latter will fade over time, and the former can be fixed in time. We will see more management changes soon I'm sure, with shareholders having more of a say over selection.

I still am of the view there is a bright future for a2. It might take a few years for them to sort it out and mature into a leading global company, and lessen their reliance on China.

In the meantime they are still very profitable. Let's remember that despite a shocking year they are still going to make a significant profit and $1.3b - $1.4b in revenue is nothing to scoff at.

I enjoy your posts Jeremy and I am not surprised at all to see you near the top of the share competition as the vast majority of the time you share some great insights but I believe you're off the mark here by quite some margin. Others will point to longer timeframes and that's okay but to me the strong growth stopped 3 years ago and they've faced issues well before Covid that slowed them down.
I could debate your post line by line, (I really am tempted too) but rather than do that I think I will sum my sense up with this simple statement, first mover advantage only lasts so long...and then its gone.
I think their brand value is on the decline. I sold 3 years ago at ~ $13. Here's a chart showing ATM's share price relative to the NZX50 since I sold.
The famous KW said, never buy shares in a downtrend. By extension, I never hold shares in a confirmed downtrend. The widespread proliferation of other A2 brand alternatives are eating away and diminishing their first mover advantage. Management now have a very serious credibility problem in my opinion. I don't think they know how to try and regain their premium brand growth trajectory and I wonder if this is even possible. I know a lot of money has been made in ATM in the past and that's probably why it has "cult like" (not unlike Tesla in the U.S.) status here but down 20% in the last 3 years when the market is up 90% is a serious problem for the newcomers and the huge gains of the past are well and truly now ancient history and of little relevance to investors decisions today. Picture says a thousand words... Good luck with it buddy, I think you're in for an "interesting" time with it for at least the rest of 2021.
12364

Much is made of their so called "cash mountain" I'm not impressed they have never paid a dividend over all these years and they have what amounts to just $1.10 per share in cash in the bank. So they've been miserable with dividends and have some cash as a result of that...:rolleyes:

[Ruby]

Excerpts from NZ Herald today;


"...While a2 Milk has taken a battering, fund managers, noting the company's enviable earnings record, lack of debt and its $774 million cash mountain, have in no way written the company off..."

"..."It is still an amazing brand," said Mark Brown, chief investment officer at Devon Funds, who noted the company's very strong balance sheet...."

"...At the same time, China is aware that it can't be totally self-sufficient because it does not have the land, water or climate.And it costs more to feed and milk a Chinese cow than it does a New Zealand, Australian or Irish cow," Mahon said...."

"...In the 11 coastal provinces where most of China's 400 million middle class citizens reside, customers seek out imported infant formula on the basis that its food safely is more reliable..."

"..."They have diversified and they have done well particularly in the offline channel in China, but the business is obviously still exposed to daigou..."

"...the central theme is that the daigou traders just want to get back into business.
"They want to get going again, but while borders are closed it remains difficult for them.
"There are many different types of daigou - some are quite large and sophisticated..."

[dobby41]

Excerpts from NZ Herald today;


"...While a2 Milk has taken a battering, fund managers, noting the company's enviable earnings record, lack of debt and its $774 million cash mountain, have in no way written the company off..."

"..."It is still an amazing brand," said Mark Brown, chief investment officer at Devon Funds, who noted the company's very strong balance sheet...."

"...At the same time, China is aware that it can't be totally self-sufficient because it does not have the land, water or climate.And it costs more to feed and milk a Chinese cow than it does a New Zealand, Australian or Irish cow," Mahon said...."

"...In the 11 coastal provinces where most of China's 400 million middle class citizens reside, customers seek out imported infant formula on the basis that its food safely is more reliable..."

"..."They have diversified and they have done well particularly in the offline channel in China, but the business is obviously still exposed to daigou..."

"...the central theme is that the daigou traders just want to get back into business.
"They want to get going again, but while borders are closed it remains difficult for them.
"There are many different types of daigou - some are quite large and sophisticated..."

Food for thought - thanks.

[Habits]

Now below 10 bucks again and forming a similar pattern to after the second downgrade. Drop... bounce... drop

[Mista_Trix]

Some of that is the sharesies crowds doing. I've got a friend who just bought in because 'theres a whole bunch of people on facebook buying in, this things going up, rocket, rocket'. I asked what his entry signal was or what his exit strategy would be, 'I just feel like now the right time, I can double or tripple my money when it goes back to its highs'.

This is the crowd that only know of things returning to their highs once they've hit the bottom. This thing will keep bouncing all the way down because of this crowd.

[Gregnz]

Some of that is the sharesies crowds doing. I've got a friend who just bought in because 'theres a whole bunch of people on facebook buying in, this things going up, rocket, rocket'. I asked what his entry signal was or what his exit strategy would be, 'I just feel like now the right time, I can double or tripple my money when it goes back to its highs'.

This is the crowd that only know of things returning to their highs once they've hit the bottom. This thing will keep bouncing all the way down because of this crowd.

The Sharesies crowd have very little influence, A2 is driven from the ASX where the real volume is. You can tell instantly when Sharesies members are buying, after all they often buy 1 or sell 1 share.

[Cadalac123]

Some of that is the sharesies crowds doing. I've got a friend who just bought in because 'theres a whole bunch of people on facebook buying in, this things going up, rocket, rocket'. I asked what his entry signal was or what his exit strategy would be, 'I just feel like now the right time, I can double or tripple my money when it goes back to its highs'.

This is the crowd that only know of things returning to their highs once they've hit the bottom. This thing will keep bouncing all the way down because of this crowd.

The way humans interact with the stock market during their initial interactions with is really fascinating. I can understand though as I was equally as bad when I first started and also lost a lot of money.

The issue is this ingrained idea in people’s heads when they first come into the market that if a product being sold is good it means the share price is going to keep going up indefinitely. It doesn’t help companies like Tesla uptrended in the way that it did.

I avoid talking about stocks with anyone in real life now. I once talked to someone who had 1 week of investing experience and he asked me how I invest and I told him I do thorough fundamental analysis and TA to position size and gauge my entry and exit and actually assess an appropriate risk to trade - appreciating the stock market isn’t just about ownership of a company but also about accepting market volatility.

He told me I was gambling and I should just believe in the company I want to invest in and put money in and not to look at my investment for years. One would have thought ignoring price action and obvious signs to exit would have meant you were specifically trying not to just gamble lol

[Mista_Trix]

The Sharesies crowd have very little influence, A2 is driven from the ASX where the real volume is. You can tell instantly when Sharesies members are buying, after all they often buy 1 or sell 1 share.

Keep in mind the Sharesies crowd is also filled with people in their 30s and 40s who feel asset rich from the increases in their house and are pushing all their spare money into shares because they made 100% on some punts last year. When you talk to them about platforms they dont even understand theres more than just sharesies to invest through.

It's not just 18 year olds throwing $50 here and there.

[Balance]

Excerpts from NZ Herald today;


"...While a2 Milk has taken a battering, fund managers, noting the company's enviable earnings record, lack of debt and its $774 million cash mountain, have in no way written the company off..."

"..."It is still an amazing brand," said Mark Brown, chief investment officer at Devon Funds, who noted the company's very strong balance sheet...."

"...At the same time, China is aware that it can't be totally self-sufficient because it does not have the land, water or climate.And it costs more to feed and milk a Chinese cow than it does a New Zealand, Australian or Irish cow," Mahon said...."

"...In the 11 coastal provinces where most of China's 400 million middle class citizens reside, customers seek out imported infant formula on the basis that its food safely is more reliable..."

"..."They have diversified and they have done well particularly in the offline channel in China, but the business is obviously still exposed to daigou..."

"...the central theme is that the daigou traders just want to get back into business.
"They want to get going again, but while borders are closed it remains difficult for them.
"There are many different types of daigou - some are quite large and sophisticated..."

Very very selective excerpts by Ruby from the same NZH article which compares ATM unfavourably with Fonterra fortunes in recent times :

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/continuous-disclosure-role-reversal-fonterra-finds-favour-while-a2-milk-slumps/4S7M6CEKCPMWMPJL3BORQQLJKQ/

paywalled

" ..... doubts persist about its reliance on the unofficial trade in infant formula from New Zealand and Australia into China by individuals and larger entities."

" ..... That reliance has been brought into sharper focus by Covid-19 border closures."

" ..... However the [unofficial, or daigou] channel to market is fragile, as people have reported."

" ..... Some of it that [downgrade] may be Covid. Some of it may be a national preference for local brands, but the daigou channel is not a reliable channel to market."

" ..... was cool on a2 Milk's move to get into manufacturing in its own right by taking a controlling interest in Mataura Valley Milk. I am less enamoured from a return on investment perspective."

" .....while a2 Milk has a big chunk of the Australia fresh milk market, it is still largely dependent on infant formula sales into China - one product into one market. It's a risky proposition."

" .....At the same time there is the trend towards China becoming more self-reliant in dairy and in infant formula."

" .... But a phenomenon related to Covid saw supply interrupted early last year, which saw more consumers turn to local brands, accompanied by an aggressive marketing campaign by the local infant formula companies."

" ..... There are these exceptional periods that have altered supply and consumer demand."

Etc Etc

Pays to read the whole article to get a balanced perspective on what's the market out there is really thinking.

[Ruby]

Very very selective excerpts by Ruby from the same NZH article which compares ATM with Fonterra :

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/continuous-disclosure-role-reversal-fonterra-finds-favour-while-a2-milk-slumps/4S7M6CEKCPMWMPJL3BORQQLJKQ/

paywalled


" ..... doubts persist about its reliance on the unofficial trade in infant formula from New Zealand and Australia into China by individuals and larger entities."

"That reliance has been brought into sharper focus by Covid-19 border closures."

"However the [unofficial, or daigou] channel to market is fragile, as people have reported."

"Some of it that [downgrade] may be Covid. Some of it may be a national preference for local brands, but the daigou channel is not a reliable channel to market."

" ..... was cool on a2 Milk's move to get into manufacturing in its own right by taking a controlling interest in Mataura Valley Milk. I am less enamoured from a return on investment perspective."

" .....while a2 Milk has a big chunk of the Australia fresh milk market, it is still largely dependent on infant formula sales into China - one product into one market. It's a risky proposition."

" ....At the same time there is the trend towards China becoming more self-reliant in dairy and in infant formula."

" ...."But a phenomenon related to Covid saw supply interrupted early last year, which saw more consumers turn to local brands, accompanied by an aggressive marketing campaign by the local infant formula companies," Mahon said.

"There are these exceptional periods that have altered supply and consumer demand."

Etc Etc

Pays to read the whole article to get a balanced perspective on what's the market out there is really thinking.

Of course,I had to get in early before you posted the selected negative comments lol...
Half glass full etc.
I am disappointed actually at how slow your 'balanced' response
was.

[tomm]

Of course,I had to get in early before you posted the selected negative comments lol...
Half glass full etc.
I am disappointed actually at how slow your 'balanced' response
was.
LOL, Trapper is being Trapped LOL hahahah

[Balance]

Of course,I had to get in early before you posted the selected negative comments lol...
Half glass full etc.
I am disappointed actually at how slow your 'balanced' response
was.

Must be the ultimate insult to injury for ATM to have underperformed Fonterra FSF by 76%:t_up: in the last 12 months!

[Balance]

Of course,I had to get in early before you posted the selected negative comments lol...
Half glass full etc.
I am disappointed actually at how slow your 'balanced' response
was.

Which speaks volume as to why some of us steered well clear of ATM and the comments from certain posters here

and

why we get PMs from other posters thanking us for our balanced perspective.

[Ruby]

Of course,I had to get in early before you posted the selected negative comments lol...
Half glass full etc.
I am disappointed actually at how slow your 'balanced' response
was.
So on 'balance' there is as many fund managers who are positive as there are negative on this stock,most are guessing.
A2 was already pivoting to other channels when a once in a 100 year event,changed their channels at warp speed.
Bortolussi has now taken over,it was never great to have a temporary CEO in charge whilst this was all happening,he was never going to change too much.
Bortolussi is on the board as well,I am sure he is not sitting on his hands.
The new China based board member Bessi Lee has an impressive pedigree;
Bessie is a highly regarded company director and an expert, especially in digital marketing and innovative data management in China, with a diversity of experience. She is a director on the boards of Electrocomponents and Abcam and an industry advisor to Greater Pacific Capital. She was also previously a director at Ecovacs Robotics.
Bessie founded Withinlink Limited in 2015 where she continues to focus on investing and incubating marketing technology start-ups in China, several of which have listed in the past few years.
Bessie was previously the CEO of WPP China, the world’s leading marketing communications group, focusing on mergers and acquisitions, senior client relations and government relations. Bessie is the recipient of numerous industry awards, including being named The Most Innovative Person in Business in 2019 by the International Entrepreneurs, Creatives and Innovators Association (IECIA).
Bessie resides in China.

[Ruby]

Which speaks volume as to why some of us steered well clear of ATM and why we get PMs from other posters thanking us for our balanced perspective.

Enjoy!
Haha...we all get PM's congratulating on various things posted...

[Gregnz]

Which speaks volume as to why some of us steered well clear of ATM and why we get PMs from other posters thanking us for our balanced perspective.

Enjoy!

Your perspective is far from balanced. Likewise, countless PM’s received here telling me how unbalanced your perspective is. Interesting isn’t it.

[Ruby]

Must be the ultimate insult to injury for ATM to have underperformed Fonterra FSF by 76% in the last 12 months!
Sheesh,about time,one of the worlds biggest dairy companies with the highest paid executives is finally performing better than a little milk company the doesn't have any cows lol...

[Gregnz]

Haha...we all get PM's congratulating on various things posted...

You beat me to it, I was just saying the same thing!

[Balance]

Your perspective is far from balanced. Likewise, countless PM’s received here telling me how unbalanced your perspective is. Interesting isn’t it.

Speaks for itself then, doesn't it?

I LOVE IT! :t_up:

[porkandpuha]

Haha...we all get PM's congratulating on various things posted...

I got PMs from others when I called out the trash, go figure.


You beat me to it, I was just saying the same thing!

EDIT: ah shoot you both beat me

[Ruby]

Speaks for itself then, doesn't it?

I LOVE IT! :t_up:
Does it?:confused:

[Akane]

Thanks for the link, I've just read it, there's a lot more negatives than positives.

[Ruby]

Thanks for the link, I've just read it, there's a lot more negatives than positives.
How did you quantify that?:confused:

[Gregnz]

Thanks for the link, I've just read it, there's a lot more negatives than positives.

Are you reading the same article? If confused, read Ruby’s post which includes the positives. Then read Balances post which includes only the negatives. Seems just as many positives as negatives to me?

[Ruby]

Are you reading the same article? If confused, read Ruby’s post which includes the positives. Then read Balances post which includes only the negatives. Seems just as many positives as negatives to me?
A quick line by line count on both posts is 9 each,a draw lol :p

[tomm]

The Negatives are all taken in with all the informations available.
The Positives are reflecting the SP from Insto's and share holders whom already taken into accounts and looking to the future of the company and have been buying back shares from all the panic sellers.
It has been 3 days straight :
1st day : 42 mil shares was changed hand. (NZX and ASX)SP was pushed down to $8.92NZD
2nd day: 26 mil shares was changed hand. (NZX and ASX)SP was pushed up to$10.47NZD to $10.65NZD on ASX
3rd day: 16 mil shares was changed hand. (NZX and ASX)SP was steady $10.05
It calmed yesterday : just under 5 mil shares changed hand.(NZX and ASX) $10-10.05

The panic is calmed , I believe most of the panickers are now realised that is it and stop selling and hold.
Also taken into account that shorters are also recovering at this price, meaning it is a very good price for this ATM stock at this moment.

Any positive news will lift off this darling ATM rocket!

[Balance]

The Negatives are all taken in with all the informations available.
The Positives are reflecting the SP from Insto's and share holders whom already taken into accounts and looking to the future of the company and have been buying back shares from all the panic sellers.

Or so you wrote after the first & second downgrades as well. :D

[TLM54]

Now below 10 bucks again and forming a similar pattern to after the second downgrade. Drop... bounce... drop

The SP is trading through the fib retracement levels. It's been rejected off the 61% and 50% levels already. Good chance we will see the mid-low $9 soon if we see closing below $9.90.

[Baa_Baa]

The SP is trading through the fib retracement levels. It's been rejected off the 61% and 50% levels already. Good chance we will see the mid-low $9 soon if we see closing below $9.90.

What date did you start your fib retrace, could you post your chart?

[BlackPeter]

...
The new China based board member Bessi Lee has an impressive pedigree;
Bessie is a highly regarded company director and an expert, especially in digital marketing and innovative data management in China, with a diversity of experience. She is a director on the boards of Electrocomponents and Abcam and an industry advisor to Greater Pacific Capital. She was also previously a director at Ecovacs Robotics.
Bessie founded Withinlink Limited in 2015 where she continues to focus on investing and incubating marketing technology start-ups in China, several of which have listed in the past few years.
Bessie was previously the CEO of WPP China, the world’s leading marketing communications group, focusing on mergers and acquisitions, senior client relations and government relations. Bessie is the recipient of numerous industry awards, including being named The Most Innovative Person in Business in 2019 by the International Entrepreneurs, Creatives and Innovators Association (IECIA).
Bessie resides in China.

OK - you copied the usual corporate speak (to avoid the proverbial) coming with any new director / manager. I can't remember that I ever did read anything negative in any company announcement for any new director, and lets face it - most of them are average and as many of them are terrible as there are outstanding.

Having said that am I now wondering - what particularly in the above announcement made you think that her "pedigree" is particularly relevant and impressive for an A2M board position? What do you know about her which makes you move her into the say upper quartile of all possible directors?

Maybe you could compare above corporate announcement with one of the "announcements" for known useless seat warmers and just explain to us the differences. I would love to learn how to recognize great directors from announcements like that ...

[tomm]

Or so you wrote after the first & second downgrades as well. :D
READ.

The Negatives are all taken in with all the informations available.
The Positives are reflecting the SP from Insto's and share holders whom already taken into accounts and looking to the future of the company and have been buying back shares from all the panic sellers.
It has been 3 days straight :
1st day : 42 mil shares was changed hand.(NZX and ASX) SP was pushed down to $8.92NZD
2nd day: 26 mil shares was changed hand. (NZX and ASX)SP was pushed up to$10.47NZD to $10.65NZD on ASX
3rd day: 16 mil shares was changed hand. (NZX and ASX)SP was steady $10.05NZD
It calmed yesterday : just under 5 mil shares changed hand.(NZX and ASX) $10-10.05NZD

The panic is calmed , I believe most of the panickers are now realised that is it and stop selling and hold.
Also taken into account that shorters are also recovering at this price, meaning it is a very good price for this ATM stock at this moment.

Any positive news will lift off this darling ATM rocket!

[Ruby]

OK - you copied the usual corporate speak (to avoid the proverbial) coming with any new director / manager. I can't remember that I ever did read anything negative in any company announcement for any new director, and lets face it - most of them are average and as many of them are terrible as there are outstanding.

Having said that am I now wondering - what particularly in the above announcement made you think that her "pedigree" is particularly relevant and impressive for an A2M board position? What do you know about her which makes you move her into the say upper quartile of all possible directors?

Maybe you could compare above corporate announcement with one of the "announcements" for known useless seat warmers and just explain to us the differences. I would love to learn how to recognize great directors from announcements like that ...
I just copied that for reference from the A2 governance page,not as an announcement.
I am referring to her time as CEO of WPP below,seems to have relevant knowledge on sales & marketing in China,Could be worse,we could have got Theirry Speirings,ex Fonterra guru.
"...The Group's Chinese operations are well established in the areas of Advertising; Media Investment Management; Data Investment Management; Public Relations & Public Affairs; Branding & Identity; Healthcare Communications; Digital, eCommerce and Shopper Marketing; and Specialist Communications..."

[Akane]

He told me I was gambling and I should just believe in the company I want to invest in and put money in and not to look at my investment for years. One would have thought ignoring price action and obvious signs to exit would have meant you were specifically trying not to just gamble lol

A lot of people want a repeat of IBM shares or Apple shares, the heartfelt story of "I was given 10,000 XYZ shares 30 years ago, they were worthless at $0.01 each, so I just forgotten about them, and now I'm a billionaire!"

Whilst we're on this topic, I got a ToS change email from one of my bitcoin mining pools last night, that I haven't logged in since late 2011. I logged in again last night and found that I have 0.011 of a BTC (I've set it to only pay out when it reaches a full 1.0 BTC), what was worth sweet FA back then has become $800+ as of last night, so I got to experience that.

Pity about the 2 BTC's that got hacked though, that's another forum for the Mt Gox saga.

[BlackPeter]

I just copied that for reference from the A2 governance page,not as an announcement.
I am referring to her time as CEO of WPP below,seems to have relevant knowledge on sales & marketing in China,Could be worse,we could have got Theirry Speirings,ex Fonterra guru.
"...The Group's Chinese operations are well established in the areas of Advertising; Media Investment Management; Data Investment Management; Public Relations & Public Affairs; Branding & Identity; Healthcare Communications; Digital, eCommerce and Shopper Marketing; and Specialist Communications..."

Fair enough, you would think that she should have some idea how to market in China.

On the other hand - if I look at the WPP annual results during her stewardship (
2017: https://www.wpp.com/-/media/project/wpp/files/imported-reports/2017/wpp_ar_2017_annual_report.pdf
2014: https://sites.wpp.com/annualreports/2014/-/media/microsites/annual-reports/2014/downloads/pdf/wppar_2014_full_report.pdf)
- the Chinese results do look somewhat diminishing, don't they?
Of course, she worked only part time as WPP CEO (Mondays to Wednesdays), this might have made a difference as well?

It appears that China revenue during her tenancy dropped from 1.5bn in 2014 to 1.4bn in 2017, and this was the time when the Chinese economy was growing two digits per year and GPP world wide was growing with something like 5% per year.

Have a look through the WPP annual reports - they say so much than the A2M corporate statements :):

Maybe it was not just her interest in her investment company that she left her job with WPP in May 2017?

Who knows. I do note however that she isn't putting any emphasis on her WPP episode in her LinkedIn profile, hard to find.

Maybe you are reading more into it than she does :):

[Ruby]

Fair enough, you would think that she should have some idea how to market in China.

On the other hand - if I look at the WPP annual results during her stewardship (
2017: https://www.wpp.com/-/media/project/wpp/files/imported-reports/2017/wpp_ar_2017_annual_report.pdf
2014: https://sites.wpp.com/annualreports/2014/-/media/microsites/annual-reports/2014/downloads/pdf/wppar_2014_full_report.pdf)
- the Chinese results do look somewhat diminishing, don't they?
Of course, she worked only part time as WPP CEO (Mondays to Wednesdays), this might have made a difference as well?

It appears that China revenue during her tenancy dropped from 1.5bn in 2014 to 1.4bn in 2017, and this was the time when the Chinese economy was growing two digits per year and GPP world wide was growing with something like 5% per year.

Have a look through the WPP annual reports - they say so much than the A2M corporate statements :):

Maybe it was not just her interest in her investment company that she left her job with WPP in May 2017?

Who knows. I do note however that she isn't putting any emphasis on her WPP episode in her LinkedIn profile, hard to find.

Maybe you are reading more into it than she does :):
Actually I think it is you that are reading more into it.
I was merely noting we have a new board member with what would appear from the outside as skills that would be of use to a company marketing and selling a product in China,as opposed to many who may have the same skills,but not in China or with China.
Going forward,it is still A2M's close links,JV's and distributorships with Government owned companies that will stand it in good stead going forward.
Additionally the fact that we are a NZ company,not a big western multi national.

[BlackPeter]

Actually I think it is you that are reading more into it.
I was merely noting we have a new board member with what would appear from the outside as skills that would be of use to a company marketing and selling a product in China,as opposed to many who may have the same skills,but not in China or with China.
Going forward,it is still A2M's close links,JV's and distributorships with Government owned companies that will stand it in good stead going forward.
Additionally the fact that we are a NZ company,not a big western multi national.

Maybe you should re-read your first post referring to her? Your summary sounds so much more muted than the original announcement.

Anyway - if she isn't the trump card for A2M, than lets hope nobody lost it from the stack :):

[Ruby]

Maybe you should re-read your first post referring to her? Your summary sounds so much more muted than the original announcement.

Anyway - if she isn't the trump card for A2M, than lets hope nobody lost it from the stack :):
:):):t_up::confused::D...What 'announcement" ?

[Ruby]

Maybe you should re-read your first post referring to her? Your summary sounds so much more muted than the original announcement.

Anyway - if she isn't the trump card for A2M, than lets hope nobody lost it from the stack :):
I am trying to learn off the experts in here,lots of hyperbole and very emotive language,followed by lots of emoji's :t_up:

[Ruby]

What we should be celebrating is that we are 'green' today' and that we have such an amazing NZ company that is doing so well.
And we should also celebrate that that other little cow company Fonterra are finally getting some positive momentum.

[Ruby]

looks like the smart money is exiting APT & Z1P on ASX,maybe we will get a few coins thrown our way :)

[BlackPeter]

:):):t_up::confused::D...What 'announcement" ?

That one: You announced so proud that ATM have now "a highly regarded company director and an expert, especially in digital marketing and innovative data management in China, with a diversity of experience".

Already forgotten?


So on 'balance' there is as many fund managers who are positive as there are negative on this stock,most are guessing.
A2 was already pivoting to other channels when a once in a 100 year event,changed their channels at warp speed.
Bortolussi has now taken over,it was never great to have a temporary CEO in charge whilst this was all happening,he was never going to change too much.
Bortolussi is on the board as well,I am sure he is not sitting on his hands.
The new China based board member Bessi Lee has an impressive pedigree;
Bessie is a highly regarded company director and an expert, especially in digital marketing and innovative data management in China, with a diversity of experience. She is a director on the boards of Electrocomponents and Abcam and an industry advisor to Greater Pacific Capital. She was also previously a director at Ecovacs Robotics.
Bessie founded Withinlink Limited in 2015 where she continues to focus on investing and incubating marketing technology start-ups in China, several of which have listed in the past few years.
Bessie was previously the CEO of WPP China, the world’s leading marketing communications group, focusing on mergers and acquisitions, senior client relations and government relations. Bessie is the recipient of numerous industry awards, including being named The Most Innovative Person in Business in 2019 by the International Entrepreneurs, Creatives and Innovators Association (IECIA).
Bessie resides in China.

[Ruby]

A2M theme song that they play at board meetings..:D
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LODkVkpaVQA

[Ruby]

That one: You announced so proud that ATM have now "a highly regarded company director and an expert, especially in digital marketing and innovative data management in China, with a diversity of experience".

Already forgotten?
Thanks for talking me up,but making a comment about what I thought is an impressive pedigree on a little known forum in NZ is hardly an 'announcement'....But you do flatter me :t_up:

[Gregnz]

looks like the smart money is exiting APT & Z1P on ASX,maybe we will get a few coins thrown our way :)

Good volume on the ASX so far today. Perhaps some smart money has woken up to how over valued APT is. Fancy APT dropping 26% in just 8 days!!