ATM - A2 Milk Corporation Limited

[Ruby]

Good volume on the ASX so far today. Perhaps some smart money has woken up to how over valued APT is. Fancy APT dropping 26% in just 8 days!!
Yea,fancy that,a $40b company that makes no profit with a model that can be copied by any financial institution being considered 'over valued'

[Gregnz]

Yea,fancy that,a $40b company that makes no profit with a model that can be copied by any financial institution being considered 'over valued'

A $40 billion dollar company, which makes no profit, and HY revenue of only $374m. Compared with A2 a $7 billion company, HY revenue $677m, and $774m in the bank!!

It's ludicrous.

[Gregnz]

Yea,fancy that,a $40b company that makes no profit with a model that can be copied by any financial institution being considered 'over valued'

And don't forget that BNPL (APT etc) are also yet to be regulated. Thats coming their way too. Yet people were happily paying AUD $160 per share a fortnight ago!
Talk about a great way to lose AUD $50 per share in just 8 days!

[HKG2301]

Of course, I had to get in early before you posted the selected negative comments lol...
Half glass full etc. I am disappointed actually at how slow your 'balanced' response was.

Caught red-handed!

Depends on what you use this forum for, Ruby. Are you trying to share useful info amongst your trading/investing peers, or hoping to swing them to your bullish beliefs by selective use of said info. I'd hope the former, but it appears not in this case.

OK, in some respects this is a debating chamber, but most of the time I'd prefer, as they say, "Just the facts, ma'am"...

[Ruby]

Caught red-handed!

Depends on what you use this forum for, Ruby. Are you trying to share useful info amongst your trading/investing peers, or hoping to swing them to your bullish beliefs by selective use of said info. I'd hope the former, but it appears not in this case.

OK, in some respects this is a debating chamber, but most of the time I'd prefer, as they say, "Just the facts, ma'am"...
'OOOhhh,caught red handed..." :)
Like I said,just adding some 'balance' to the thread,most appear to trawl the internet for any comment small or large to support their negative bias and act like children when an opposing viewpoint or opinion is put forward.
I am unashamedly positive on this stock,at least I am honest.

[Ruby]

It becomes more obvious of the bias in here when previously well regarded brokers become 'idiots' when they publish anything that could be construed as positive.
and any that were regularly held up as 'clowns',become the oracles of the sharemarket if they publish a SP downgrade :D:t_up::p

[tomm]

The Negatives are all taken in with all the informations available.
The Positives are reflecting the SP from Insto's and share holders whom already taken into accounts and looking to the future of the company and have been buying back shares from all the panic sellers.
It has been 3 days straight :
1st day : 42 mil shares was changed hand. (NZX and ASX)SP was pushed down to $8.92NZD
2nd day: 26 mil shares was changed hand. (NZX and ASX)SP was pushed up to$10.47NZD to $10.65NZD on ASX
3rd day: 16 mil shares was changed hand. (NZX and ASX)SP was steady $10.05
It calmed yesterday : just under 5 mil shares changed hand.(NZX and ASX) $10-10.05

The panic is calmed , I believe most of the panickers are now realised that is it and stop selling and hold.
Also taken into account that shorters are also recovering at this price, meaning it is a very good price for this ATM stock at this moment.

Any positive news will lift off this darling ATM rocket!

[tomm]

And don't forget that BNPL (APT etc) are also yet to be regulated. Thats coming their way too. Yet people were happily paying AUD $160 per share a fortnight ago!
Talk about a great way to lose AUD $50 per share in just 8 days!
It has been a few days : ALL RED from both NZX and ASX : exept A2M . :t_up:

[Akane]

It has been a few days : ALL RED from both NZX and ASX : exept A2M . :t_up:

All red from NASDAQ too, except GME, does that mean GME is all rockets and diamond hands?

[tomm]

All red from NASDAQ too, except GME, does that mean GME is all rockets and diamond hands?
I don't invest in GME , so this thread is not for GME mate.

[Akane]

I don't invest in GME , so this thread is not for GME mate.
Well going by your logic, GME is just as good as ATM, if not better.

[Mista_Trix]

Well going by your logic, GME is just as good as ATM, if not better.

Quit arguing with children, it just provokes them, and doesn't make for good reading either way.

[tomm]

Well going by your logic, GME is just as good as ATM, if not better.
Thanks for bringing this up , if you want to compare... there are endless stories about this and that stocks... I don't want to go there as this is a thread for ATM, very preciated.
Lovely to see the SP is at a steady level above $10.. and up..:t_up:

[Biscuit]

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/farming/dairy/106050501/micro-differences-between-milk-brands-so-why-are-some-customers-prepared-to-pay-a-premium

Here we go, there are a couple of posters on here who are struggling with the whole concept of branding and why similar products can sell for quite different prices. This is a good basic read for the stragglers, a bit of light after school reading.

[Balance]

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/farming/dairy/106050501/micro-differences-between-milk-brands-so-why-are-some-customers-prepared-to-pay-a-premium

Here we go, there are a couple of posters on here who are struggling with the whole concept of branding and why similar products can sell for quite different prices. This is a good basic read for the stragglers, a bit of light after school reading.

FSF outperforms ATM by 76% in the last year - now that tells us all we want to know too about brand power vs hype.

[tomm]

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/farming/dairy/106050501/micro-differences-between-milk-brands-so-why-are-some-customers-prepared-to-pay-a-premium

Here we go, there are a couple of posters on here who are struggling with the whole concept of branding and why similar products can sell for quite different prices. This is a good basic read for the stragglers, a bit of light after school reading.
The guy has no ideas about the formula they added after they bought the raw milk powder before processing and going onto the selves.
He was just doing the research regarding raw milk.

[Biscuit]

FSF outperforms ATM by 76% in the last year - now that tells us all we want to know too about brand power vs hype.

Yes, there is money in milk, not sure you are right to be enthusiastic over Fonterra. I looked at Fonterra a while ago but, like LIC, its really just for the farmers. also they are a big and kind of hopeless organisation. I'd agree there are questions over A2, particularly the apparent lack of awareness by senior management of the evolving collapse of their diagou trade. But having said that, I am more positive than negative over A2 as a slice of NZ dairy with an innovative edge. Also, senior management of any company, in my experience, are usually over-rated in terms of their ability to bolster company performance.

[Ruby]

FSF outperforms ATM by 76% in the last year - now that tells us all we want to know too about brand power vs hype.
Jeez,talk about picking out only the positives...how has Fonterra been going in all the previous years,they couldn't have done any worse than they have been. :t_up:

[Ruby]

FSF outperforms ATM by 76% in the last year - now that tells us all we want to know too about brand power vs hype.
The good news is that A2 are in partnership with Fonterra after Fonterra realised they messed up by not buying A2 when they were offered the chance many years ago.They have since realised the minnow that that they dismissed is a force not to be ignored :D

[Ruby]

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/farming/dairy/106050501/micro-differences-between-milk-brands-so-why-are-some-customers-prepared-to-pay-a-premium

Here we go, there are a couple of posters on here who are struggling with the whole concept of branding and why similar products can sell for quite different prices. This is a good basic read for the stragglers, a bit of light after school reading.
Excerpt from above (apologies in advance,positive comment);
Lee described three tiers of milk products; there's the top shelf brands (literally) such as organic milk brands Lewis Road and Kāpiti single farm and protein-specific A2 milk. Then there's the "mainstay" brands like Anchor and Meadowfresh, and then there's the no-frills brands put out by supermarkets.

[Ruby]

Another green day :t_up:

[Gregnz]

Excerpt from above (apologies in advance,positive comment);
Lee described three tiers of milk products; there's the top shelf brands (literally) such as organic milk brands Lewis Road and Kāpiti single farm and protein-specific A2 milk. Then there's the "mainstay" brands like Anchor and Meadowfresh, and then there's the no-frills brands put out by supermarkets.

Ruby, no positivity allowed here. Sorry, only negative comments please. (even though you're a genuine holder and proud of your investment).

[Balance]

Yes, there is money in milk, not sure you are right to be enthusiastic over Fonterra. I looked at Fonterra a while ago but, like LIC, its really just for the farmers. also they are a big and kind of hopeless organisation. I'd agree there are questions over A2, particularly the apparent lack of awareness by senior management of the evolving collapse of their diagou trade. But having said that, I am more positive than negative over A2 as a slice of NZ dairy with an innovative edge. Also, senior management of any company, in my experience, are usually over-rated in terms of their ability to bolster company performance.

I am neutral on FSF.

I am making the point that the market as a whole was so hyped up about ATM's brand power that it completely missed the wood for the trees - in the end, it's a matter of time before that first mover advantage brand power dissipates unless the company spends heaps on marketing, promotion and advertising. Something that Jayne wanted to do but the BOD disagreed - preferring to focus on the short term than the long term.

It has taken the pandemic to expose just how hugely vulnerable ATM was to one particular channel it had no control over and now, it is going to have to spend BIG just to standstill!

To recap :

" .....At the same time there is the trend towards China becoming more self-reliant in dairy and in infant formula."

" .... But a phenomenon related to Covid saw supply interrupted early last year, which saw more consumers turn to local brands, accompanied by an aggressive marketing campaign by the local infant formula companies."

" ..... There are these exceptional periods that have altered supply and consumer demand."

[Balance]

Another green day :t_up:


In the red on ASX - the real market for ATM.

Sorry to spoil your evening. :D

[Ruby]

Thanks for taking time to check for me,how did all the other stocks go?

[Balance]

Thanks for taking time to check for me,how did all the other stocks go?

You are the one who was going hyper over a miserable little green.

After it had gone red by over 50% in the last 6 months!

So suck it up!

[Ruby]

Awww...hyper...or is that your hyperbole again

[Ruby]

You got the emotive language and exclamation marks,but forgot your usual emoji...

[Balance]

You got the emotive language and exclamation marks,but forgot your usual emoji...

Just suck it up - you know you can do it.

[Ruby]

No emotive language,no exclamation marks and no emojis,well done,see,its not that hard,give yourself a pat on the back.

[Balance]

No emotive language,no exclamation marks and no emojis,well done,see,its not that hard,give yourself a pat on the back.

Don't you worry about 'pats' - I get plenty for helping many avoid the red ink all over ATM in the last 5 months.

Sorry the market could not give you a green at the end of the day to pat yourself with. I am really truly sorry for you.

Wait for the fourth downgrade - then there will be more reds!

[JeremyALD]

Don't you worry about 'pats' - I get plenty for helping many avoid the red ink all over ATM in the last 5 months.

Sorry the market could not give you a green at the end of the day to pat yourself with. I am really truly sorry for you.

Wait for the fourth downgrade - then there will be more reds!

I think you need to give it a break on this thread. You seem to take glee in others loses, while also wishing for one of the biggest kiwi success stories to fail.

[imarktu]

Sometimes I can't believe the things I see on this forum. Who needs Facebook drama?

[Balance]

I think you need to give it a break on this thread. You seem to take glee in others loses, while also wishing for one of the biggest kiwi success stories to fail.

What unadulterated garbage.

Are we not allowed to challenge those who want only positive postings?

And ATM is a success story but will be no more if it continues the way it has for the last year - hyping up its prospects while management & directors sold shares, then issuing 3 downgrades in 6 months which show they have no clue how bad things are.

Plus, there is an Ignore button in settings for you to use.

[Rawz]

I think you need to give it a break on this thread. You seem to take glee in others loses, while also wishing for one of the biggest kiwi success stories to fail.

To be fair there are four people in this thread that need to have a break. Sucking up all the oxygen and keeping away other ST posters because they don't want to get caught up in the mud slinging

[Ferg]

TLDR: statistics says you cannot predict the SP movement of ATM based on the SP movement of SML and vice versa, although they are pretty much in lock step with eachother so far for 2021.

I did some work on the correlation between the closing price of ATM versus SML. I also broke it down by year and also tried each stock leading the other by 1-5 days, also for each year.

The overall correlation between the two from 2017-2021 is +0.47. In other words about half the time each stock moves in the same direction as the other on a daily basis.

Looking at the different years, 2021 has the 2nd highest correlation at +0.82, the years 2018-2020 had correlations less than +0.5 and 2017 was +0.98.

Advancing each stock relative to the other by 1-5 days generally results in lower correlations versus those where we compare the closing prices on the same day. In other words, the movement of one stock cannot be used to predict the daily/weekly movement of the other. Although I note there was a slightly increasing correlation for ATM leading SML in 2018, but it was still less than +0.5.

Summary data FYI:



Correlations
= Date
ATM+1
ATM+2
ATM+3
ATM+4
ATM+5
SML+1
SML+2
SML+3
SML+4
SML+5


Daily Close 2017-2021
0.47
0.47
0.46
0.46
0.45
0.45
0.47
0.47
0.47
0.47
0.47



Daily Close 2021
0.81
0.79
0.77
0.74
0.69
0.64
0.76
0.73
0.68
0.62
0.58


Daily Close 2020
0.36
0.35
0.35
0.34
0.34
0.34
0.36
0.36
0.36
0.36
0.36


Daily Close 2019
0.22
0.20
0.17
0.14
0.11
0.09
0.22
0.22
0.22
0.22
0.22


Daily Close 2018
0.41
0.43
0.44
0.45
0.46
0.47
0.39
0.37
0.34
0.31
0.27


Daily Close 2017
0.98
0.98
0.98
0.98
0.98
0.98
0.98
0.98
0.98
0.98
0.97



Monthly Close 2017-2021

0.45

[porkandpuha]

To be fair there are four people in this thread that need to have a break. Sucking up all the oxygen and keeping away other ST posters because they don't want to get caught up in the mud slinging

They can't. It's the highlight of their day. And they use this thread (ironically all non holders) as an echo chamber meeting ground to rub each others "B" parts and tell each other how well they are doing "helping the people" despite more and more putting them on ignore.

Thanks Ferg for getting a quality post in amongst it all.

[Rawz]

They can't. It's the highlight of their day. And they use this thread (ironically all non holders) as an echo chamber meeting ground to rub each others "B" parts and tell each other how well they are doing "helping the people" despite more and more putting them on ignore.

Thanks Ferg for getting a quality post in amongst it all.

I was talking about some posters who are holders as well!

But agree, Ferg- great post

[Mista_Trix]

What unadulterated garbage.

Are we not allowed to challenge those who want only positive postings?

And ATM is a success story but will be no more if it continues the way it has for the last year - hyping up its prospects while management & directors sold shares, then issuing 3 downgrades in 6 months which show they have no clue how bad things are.

Plus, there is an Ignore button in settings for you to use.

By all means challenge. But what it's become is you two just bickering. Your posts are gold, dont get dragged down by frustrating inexperienced punters.

[davflaws]

Balance is an extremely experienced and incredibly knowledgeable investor. But like all of us, he has his blind spots. One of them is his deep and visceral hatred for anything to the left of his own right wing political stance. But that is not the main cause of the friction. For whatever reason (genetics, character, upbringing - whatever), Balance apparently believes that anyone he disagrees with is the enemy, and that he is accordingly entitled to treat them unkindly. That is a shame, because it often results in an unpleasant spiral of niggly exchanges that is a turnoff for many people. All of us catch more flies with honey than we do with vinegar.

With Beagle I have learned to take the wuff with the smooth. (old joke)

[BlackPeter]

OK, back to ATM, shall we?

This is a quite sad trend chart (using MA100 and MA 200) ... no matter what the daily SP jitter:

12367

Of course, Mr. Market can change his views any time without warning, but typically it would need some big fat good news event to change such an established down trend.

Why are people assuming the trend changed, which indicator am I missing? - or is this just a case of buying pink goggles?

[Beagle]

Balance is an extremely experienced and incredibly knowledgeable investor. But like all of us, he has his blind spots.
With Beagle I have learned to take the wuff with the smooth. (old joke)

When people add an incredible amount of knowledge, experience, analysis and intelligence to the forum which stimulates great debate and adds so much vibrancy to this place, (that at times would be like a morgue if it wasn't for posters like Balance), I am more than happy to accept them as they are. The truth is we all have our own unique eccentricities. Some are really politically incorrect and I for one find that really refreshing.

I haven't posted in here for quite a few days because to be honest I think this is now just a very ordinary company that's really struggling and really gets FAR more attention than it deserves. There's got to be something more worthwhile to bark about...

[Akane]

Maybe ATM can use some of that cash and hire a real CEO that can turn the ship around, a bit like what AMD did.

[tomm]

When people add an incredible amount of knowledge, experience, analysis and intelligence to the forum which stimulates great debate and adds so much vibrancy to this place, (that at times would be like a morgue if it wasn't for posters like Balance), I am more than happy to accept them as they are. The truth is we all have our own unique eccentricities. Some are really politically incorrect and I for one find that really refreshing.

I haven't posted in here for quite a few days because to be honest I think this is now just a very ordinary company that's really struggling and really gets FAR more attention than it deserves. There's got to be something more worthwhile to bark about...
I tried not to repeat but this is how the current look like.

The Negatives are all taken in with all the informations available.
The Positives are reflecting the SP from Insto's and share holders whom already taken into accounts and looking to the future of the company and have been buying back shares from all the panic sellers.
It has been 3 days straight :
1st day : 42 mil shares was changed hand. (NZX and ASX)SP was pushed down to $8.92NZD
2nd day: 26 mil shares was changed hand. (NZX and ASX)SP was pushed up to$10.47NZD to $10.65NZD on ASX
3rd day: 16 mil shares was changed hand. (NZX and ASX)SP was steady $10.05
It calmed yesterday : just under 5 mil shares changed hand.(NZX and ASX) $10-10.05
Currently the SP is very steady or very strong supported.

The panic is calmed , I believe most of the panickers are now realised that is it and stop selling and hold.
Also taken into account that shorters are also recovering at this price, meaning it is a very good price for this ATM stock at this moment.

Any positive news will lift off this darling ATM rocket!

[Biscuit]

.......... typically it would need some big fat good news event to change such an established down trend.....

I don't think we are going to see any major movements from here until there is clarity around whether ATM can restore growth into China and I doubt we are going to get much insight into that for several months at the soonest. Contrary to MrB, I think this is a very interesting company and I don't think the story is fully told yet.

[tomm]

I don't think we are going to see any major movements from here until there is clarity around whether ATM can restore growth into China and I doubt we are going to get much insight into that for several months at the soonest. Contrary to MrB, I think this is a very interesting company and I don't think the story is fully told yet.
Once uptrend is confirmed , you will have to buy this stock at the next uptrend prices.:)

[Mista_Trix]

Once uptrend is confirmed , you will have to buy this stock at the next uptrend prices.:)

Yes, that's exactly how managing risk works. Otherwise you're just punting on a falling knife.

[Comyn]

[QUOTE=davflaws;875799]Balance is an extremely experienced and incredibly knowledgeable investor. But like all of us, he has his blind spots. One of them is his deep and visceral hatred for anything to the left of his own right wing political stance.

And I guess your political stance is the correct one as you are more intelligent? I prefer different points of views. What I do if I don't like the post is just ignore it or comment back like I just did. If everyone who is offended how forum members post then maybe find the safe space forums where everyone agrees with you. As for ATM, I get told from Chinese friends about their view on brands. Most say the people still dont trust Chinese milk powder but as for non food products they go with the price.

[Balance]

https://www.statista.com/statistics/745647/china-major-imf-companies-market-share/

Interesting movements in IF market shares in China.

[Balance]

Another down day below $10 in NZ but well below support point of A$9.50 on ASX.

Not much support below A$9.00 if the stock does not hold above $9.00 - next real support point being A$7.50.

That's what the charts are saying?

[Balance]

https://www.fool.com.au/2021/03/09/where-next-for-the-a2-milk-asxa2m-share-price/

What could get the a2 Milk share price heading higher?

Goldman notes that there is upside risk if a2 Milk experiences a quicker than expected recovery in the daigou channel.

It also suspects that the company’s new CEO could provide a strategy update before the end of the financial year. If the market likes what it sees, it feels its shares could start rising.

Goldman explained: “Given his range of experience and capabilities, we believe incoming CEO, David Bortolussi, has the potential to make a material contribution to A2M’s strategic execution and, potentially, longer term performance. However, the strategic redirection is unlikely to be revealed until the new CEO has had some time in the role. We anticipate a strategy update at some stage in 4Q21, which could present as a catalyst for the stock.”

For now, though, Goldman appears to expect the a2 Milk share price to trade around its current level until the next catalyst appears. Hopefully for shareholders, this time it will be a positive one.

[Akane]

What could get the a2 Milk share price heading higher?


Well, for starters, STOP BLAMING THE DAIGOU CHANNEL, I swear to god they've been using COVID as a scrape goat for far too long now, pack it up and get on with it!
And start recognising that you don't have a moat, your milk is just same as all the other A2 milk, you ain't special.

Next, spend some real good cash on promoting the brand in China, celebs, influencers, whatever, and look to expand the brand elsewhere, stop relying on the CCP as your one and only bread and butter.
Also expand the market by making a spin off sister brand that sells at a lower price point.

So frustrated at the lack of leadership at the A2 HQ, the BOD and higher management just shove everything into the COVID pile and not improving on the situation. Been a year already :@

[Balance]

Well, for starters, STOP BLAMING THE DAIGOU CHANNEL, I swear to god they've been using COVID as a scrape goat for far too long now, pack it up and get on with it!
And start recognising that you don't have a moat, your milk is just same as all the other A2 milk, you ain't special.

Next, spend some real good cash on promoting the brand in China, celebs, influencers, whatever, and look to expand the brand elsewhere, stop relying on the CCP as your one and only bread and butter.
Also expand the market by making a spin off sister brand that sells at a lower price point.

So frustrated at the lack of leadership at the A2 HQ, the BOD and higher management just shove everything into the COVID pile and not improving on the situation. Been a year already :@

Excellent post, Akane.

[see weed]

Excellent post, Akane.
I 2nd that. I mention to the CEO about 5 years ago at one of the AGMs to bring out a chocolate milk brand...so simple. It would sell like hot cakes, some people buying it would not care if it was a2 or not.

[Balance]

Another down day below $10 in NZ but well below support point of A$9.50 on ASX.

Not much support below A$9.00 if the stock does not hold above $9.00 - next real support point being A$7.50.

That's what the charts are saying?

Getting close to breaking the A$9.00 support level when rest of the market having a good day.

Looking ominous!

[Biscuit]

...Looking ominous!

Ominous is derived, I guess, from the word "omen". Using augury to foretell the future. A reasonable way to describe TA perhaps, but not necessarily the best way to calculate the future fortunes of a company?

[Balance]

Ominous is derived, I guess, from the word "omen". Using augury to foretell the future. A reasonable way to describe TA perhaps, but not necessarily the best way to calculate the future fortunes of a company?

I have never ever used TA to buy or sell shares - strictly for traders imo.

However, like all things pertaining to the market, one has to be aware of the use of TA & how it works.

And the charts tell me that A$9.00 is a critical support point - which has just been breached on the ASX at the close today.

Traders using TA will be getting ready to bail out tomorrow morning?

[Biscuit]

I have never ever used TA to buy or sell shares - strictly for traders imo.

However, like all things pertaining to the market, one has to be aware of the use of TA & how it works.......


If you have never ever used TA and strictly have no intention of ever using it, why would you need to know how it works?

[Ggcc]

If you have never ever used TA and strictly have no intention of ever using it, why would you need to know how it works?

I guess with all of us. Knowledge is a good thing. Keep learning, as things of knowledge may help your decision making easier. We all like to think we could be traders, even though we might just be boring investors

[Biscuit]

I guess with all of us. Knowledge is a good thing. Keep learning, as things of knowledge may help your decision making easier. We all like to think we could be traders, even though we might just be boring investors

Sure, but say you were keen to learn a foreign language. And, co-incidentally were planning a trip to the south of France in a couple of years time. So, you could choose to learn French, or alternatively you could, for example, choose to learn standard Croatian in the Shtokavian dialect. But probably you would choose to learn French.

[bull....]

In a veiled warning to home buyers, Mr Lowe cautioned that the prospect of lower population growth over the next couple of years could outweigh some of the other factors driving prices higher

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-03-10/reserve-bank-warns-on-house-price-boom/13232954

RBA sees lower population growth cant be good for a2 sales going forward. better ramp up those new markets

[Balance]

In a veiled warning to home buyers, Mr Lowe cautioned that the prospect of lower population growth over the next couple of years could outweigh some of the other factors driving prices higher

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-03-10/reserve-bank-warns-on-house-price-boom/13232954

RBA sees lower population growth cant be good for a2 sales going forward. better ramp up those new markets

Hardly relevant imo - ATM’s growth potential is in the overseas markets and has been for the last few years.

[BigBob]

Hardly relevant imo - ATM’s growth potential is in the overseas markets and has been for the last few years.

That doesn't normally stop Bull from posting anything negative here....

[bull....]

That doesn't normally stop Bull from posting anything negative here....

lol nothing negative in the facts which have been regularly posted by myself and proved to be correct time and time again. plenty of people in this stock cant see the forest for the tree's

[BigBob]

lol nothing negative in the facts which have been regularly posted by myself and proved to be correct time and time again. plenty of people in this stock cant see the forest for the tree's

Hahaha... Sure tell yourself that you post the facts...

As long as you don't honestly believe you post ALL the facts...

You constantly post anything that you can even remotely relate to ATM as long as it is negative...

Be careful that you don't get blinded by your own confirmation bias...

[bull....]

Hardly relevant imo - ATM’s growth potential is in the overseas markets and has been for the last few years.

speaking of facts we need to correct balance mis - information. the article would be very releveant to a2 aussie business as it is a major portion of the companies profits. less babies in aus = less future profits in aus

[Balance]

speaking of facts we need to correct balance mis - information. the article would be very releveant to a2 aussie business as it is a major portion of the companies profits. less babies in aus = less future profits in aus

Don’t sweat the small stuff, bull ...

The make or break for ATM is in the overseas markets, especially China.

Awaiting the new CEO strategy reset and earnings update which should be by June 2021.

[tomm]

#
Country,
Other
Total
Cases
New
Cases
Total
Deaths
New
Deaths
Total
Recovered
Active
Cases
Serious,
Critical
Tot Cases/
1M pop
Deaths/
1M pop
Total
Tests
Tests/
1M pop
Population



World
118,470,440
+317,390
2,627,098
+5,782
94,097,090
21,746,252
89,923
15,199
337.0




From the start of the pandemic , it was almost 220 millions cases and now it is about 21 millions cases world wide , it is a significant drop of more than 80% down.
with the vaccines are rolling out worldwide , we will be in a perfect situation to recover as for businesses border opening will take quite sometimes but we will be there together with the world.

[alokdhir]

Do u actually understand these figures before writing your thoughts about them buddy ??

It says total cases till today is almost 119 million and total active cases meaning who sick at the moment is around 22 million ( this is what matters most figure ) ....went as high as 24 million now down to 22 and was around 11 mil in Nov ...so its still double of Nov figures ..

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

[tomm]

Do u actually understand these figures before writing your thoughts about them buddy ??

It says total cases till today is almost 119 million and total active cases meaning who sick at the moment is around 22 million ( this is what matters most figure ) ....went as high as 24 million now down to 22 and was around 11 mil in Nov ...so its still double of Nov figures ..

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
Please read before you post your comments :
119 mil cases in total
95 mil cases recovered.
left with 22 mil active cases.

And that is 80% drop from the start of the pandemic until now.
With the vaccines are rolling out worldwide , we will be in a perfect situation to recover as for businesses border opening will take quite sometimes but we will be there together with the world.
Hope it helps!

[Rawz]

Its not an 80% drop... lies, damned lies and statistics

Never was there at one point in time 119m cases active..

[tomm]

Its not an 80% drop... lies, damned lies and statistics

Never was there at one point in time 119m cases active..
I think you need to get back into your hole and knock yourself to wake up.





#
Country,
Other
Total
Cases
New
Cases
Total
Deaths
New
Deaths
Total
Recovered
Active
Cases
Serious,
Critical
Tot Cases/
1M pop
Deaths/
1M pop
Total
Tests
Tests/
1M pop
Population



World
118,591,858
+431,923
2,630,409
+9,092
94,195,644
21,765,805
89,828
15,214
337.5






About 119 mil cases in total
About 95 mil cases recovered. (+2.6 mil total deaths)
left with 22 mil active cases.

And that is 80% drop from the start of the pandemic until now.
With the vaccines are rolling out worldwide , we will be in a perfect situation to recover as for businesses border opening will take quite sometimes but we will be there together with the world.

[Mista_Trix]

#
Country,
Other
Total
Cases
New
Cases
Total
Deaths
New
Deaths
Total
Recovered
Active
Cases
Serious,
Critical
Tot Cases/
1M pop
Deaths/
1M pop
Total
Tests
Tests/
1M pop
Population



World
118,591,858
+431,923
2,630,409
+9,092
94,195,644
21,765,805
89,828
15,214
337.5




I think you need to get back into your hole and knock yourself to wake up.

About 119 mil cases in total
About 95 mil cases recovered. (+2.6 mil total deaths)
left with 22 mil active cases.

And that is 80% drop from the start of the pandemic until now.
With the vaccines are rolling out worldwide , we will be in a perfect situation to recover as for businesses border opening will take quite sometimes but we will be there together with the world.

Your maths assumes that all the cases thus far occurred at the start of the pandemic. Which isn't true. The more you hammer this point the more ignorance you show. You're just not right.

[JohnnyTheHorse]

Stop trying to argue with an idiot. Just put him on ignore and have some peace from stupidity.

[dobby41]

I think you need to get back into your hole and knock yourself to wake up.





#
Country,
Other
Total
Cases
New
Cases
Total
Deaths
New
Deaths
Total
Recovered
Active
Cases
Serious,
Critical
Tot Cases/
1M pop
Deaths/
1M pop
Total
Tests
Tests/
1M pop
Population



World
118,591,858
+431,923
2,630,409
+9,092
94,195,644
21,765,805
89,828
15,214
337.5






About 119 mil cases in total
About 95 mil cases recovered. (+2.6 mil total deaths)
left with 22 mil active cases.

And that is 80% drop from the start of the pandemic until now.
With the vaccines are rolling out worldwide , we will be in a perfect situation to recover as for businesses border opening will take quite sometimes but we will be there together with the world.

That's got to be one of the biggest misuses of stats that I have seen.
What it says is that we now have around 20% of cases, that there have ever been, still active.
The question, already asked, is how many active cases, at any one time, there have been.
alokdhir suggests that there were 11mil active cases in November so the world has increased (doubled) since then. That isn't good news at all.

[tomm]

That's got to be one of the biggest misuses of stats that I have seen.
What it says is that we now have around 20% of cases, that there have ever been, still active.
The question, already asked, is how many active cases, at any one time, there have been.
alokdhir suggests that there were 11mil active cases in November so the world has increased (doubled) since then. That isn't good news at all.

During the pandemic, there are ofcourse the up and down actives cases. don't even try to pick some specific periods to compare.
The statics shows clearly the 80% dropped and clearly indicated.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/?



#
Country,
Other
Total
Cases
New
Cases
Total
Deaths
New
Deaths
Total
Recovered
Active
Cases
Serious,
Critical
Tot Cases/
1M pop
Deaths/
1M pop
Total
Tests
Tests/
1M pop
Population



World
118,591,858
+431,923
2,630,409
+9,092
94,195,644
21,765,805
89,828
15,214
337.5




About 119 mil cases in total
About 95 mil cases recovered. (+2.6 mil total deaths)
left with 22 mil active cases.

With the vaccines are rolling out worldwide , we will be in a perfect situation to recover as for businesses border opening will take quite sometimes but we will be there together with the world.

[Rawz]

Oh no Tomm is tripling down now lol.

Bit painful

[tomm]

Smart people are loading up exept trollers looking for cheap entry .... :t_up:

[JohnnyTheHorse]

Oh no Tomm is tripling down now lol.

Bit painful

What do you think is worse, his stats ability or investment ability?

[alokdhir]

Smart people are loading up exept trollers looking for cheap entry .... :t_up:

If u are in the smart group then I should stay away from ATM till u hold it ....lol :p

Cheap or costly ...No entry :D

[alokdhir]

What do you think is worse, his stats ability or investment ability?

Makes me remember famous quote ...." Fool and his money is soon parted " .....:p

[tomm]

Makes me remember famous quote ...." Fool and his money is soon parted " .....:p
Now you can't argue with the World statics above now , can you ??? hahaahha back to your hole mate.
Not Sure About That :D
I have been making money from A2M more than any stocks I have ever own :t_up:



#
Country,
Other
Total
Cases
New
Cases
Total
Deaths
New
Deaths
Total
Recovered
Active
Cases
Serious,
Critical
Tot Cases/
1M pop
Deaths/
1M pop
Total
Tests
Tests/
1M pop
Population



World
118,591,858
+431,923
2,630,409
+9,092
94,195,644
21,765,805
89,828
15,214
337.5




About 119 mil cases in total
About 95 mil cases recovered. (+2.6 mil total deaths)
left with 22 mil active cases.

With the vaccines are rolling out worldwide , we will be in a perfect situation to recover as for businesses border opening will take quite sometimes but we will be there together with the world.

[Mista_Trix]

Now you can't argue with the World statics above now , can you ??? hahaahha back to your hole mate.
Not Sure About That :D
I have been making money from A2M more than any stocks I have ever own :t_up:



#
Country,
Other
Total
Cases
New
Cases
Total
Deaths
New
Deaths
Total
Recovered
Active
Cases
Serious,
Critical
Tot Cases/
1M pop
Deaths/
1M pop
Total
Tests
Tests/
1M pop
Population



World
118,591,858
+431,923
2,630,409
+9,092
94,195,644
21,765,805
89,828
15,214
337.5




About 119 mil cases in total
About 95 mil cases recovered. (+2.6 mil total deaths)
left with 22 mil active cases.

With the vaccines are rolling out worldwide , we will be in a perfect situation to recover as for businesses border opening will take quite sometimes but we will be there together with the world.

So literally everyone else on this thread is wrong about the stats, except you...?

[Rawz]

Makes me remember famous quote ...." Fool and his money is soon parted " .....:p

Also, "you can lead a horse to water but you can't make it drink" :D

I see the '80% drop' claim has been removed. progress

[dobby41]

The statics shows clearly the 80% dropped and clearly indicated.
All those stats show is that 80% of people who ever got covid have recovered.
So what?

[Ferg]

I think where tomm has tripped himself up is the use of the word "dropped" and others interpreting his statement in a way tomm did not intend. There is nothing wrong with the numbers, other than the initial 220m which is no longer being quoted and was possibly a hangover from an edit. It's the word "dropped" that is at issue. If you replace the word 'dropped' with 'recovered' I believe what tomm is trying to say is that 80% of all cases have recovered without the help of a vaccine. Now that a vaccine is rolling out, we can expect to see a lowering of the infection rates and accordingly the overall number of open cases will start to fall resulting in increased consumption and good times for companies looking for a bounce in volumes. I may be wrong but that is my interpretation of what tomm is trying to say. If however, tomm thinks the vaccine will improve the recovery rate then I'm not sure I agree with that because a vaccine would result in fewer cases, not an improvement in the recovery rate. Although, thinking this through, the recovery rate will eventually track to 100% on it's own, but if the introduction of vaccines results in fewer cases being tipped into the top of the funnel, then we should reach the full recovery point relatively earlier given there are less new cases being added while existing cases let time do it's thing and people recover. In other words, fewer new cases but more recoveries = good times ahead.

[Akane]

Oh god, this triple down is hard to watch, cringe........

[Rawz]

ATM falling back down to $9 after the dead cat bounce?

[ratkin]

lol nothing negative in the facts which have been regularly posted by myself and proved to be correct time and time again. plenty of people in this stock cant see the forest for the tree's

If you are going to scare them use better ammunition

Dairy and the environment
Massive rise in milk alternatives
Movements against animal exploitation
Boom in vegan milk
Bovine growth hormones in milk causing cancer

A2 milk being less harmful than A1 milk is like saying HIV is less harmful than AIDS

[Balance]

ATM falling back down to $9 after the dead cat bounce?

A$7.50 is where it is heading - when new CEO gives his strategy update & 4th profit downgrade?

Dropping out of ASX index a possibility given how much market cap ATM has lost?

[alokdhir]

As per the latest KFL NAV update ATM is gone from top 5 list ...not even 6 % now ...was at top spot not long back ...

Looks like ATM's biggest fan KFL also giving up ...Now only one fan left who misrepresents even covid stats to favour ATM ...:D

[dreamcatcher]

“The big news of the day was out of Australia where they signalled the borders would be reopened at the end of October,”


Travel stocks rally on Aussie reopening - Good Returns (https://www.goodreturns.co.nz/article/976518271/travel-stocks-rally-on-aussie-reopening.html)

[dreamcatcher]

Good day for US market overnight

[Balance]

Good day for US market overnight

3 good days for US markets and 3 down days for ATM.

A$7.50 is where it is heading - when new CEO’s strategy reset and profit downgrade are announced?

[Entrep]

I like this at $6~

[Balance]

I like this at $6~

Whether it is $6 or $10 or $4 does not really matter - more critical that it has bottomed out and a strategy reset is working.

[Rawz]

I like this at $6~

$6 fair with 25% margins and $1.4b revenue with 10% yoy growth

Don't think it will get there thou

[Balance]

$6 fair with 25% margins and $1.4b revenue with 10% yoy growth

Don't think it will get there thou

If it gets there, it will be because yoy growth is negative and margin is less than 20%.

Watch the space.

[Lease]

I think market is too pessimistic on A2. Given the fact A2 products are still very popular in China, it's just a matter of time for its recovery.

[Balance]

I think market is too pessimistic on A2. Given the fact A2 products are still very popular in China, it's just a matter of time for its recovery.

Giving you the opportunity to buy more of the stock at a cheaper price then, right?

[Lease]

Giving you the opportunity to buy more of the stock at a cheaper price then, right?

Yes, you're right:).

A2's success in China is not purely luck. They have the products Chinese like. They have strategies to make people love their story. I really don't think their market penetration is over.

[Akane]

Hope this will just hurry up and bottom out so we can look forward to a bounce.

[Balance]

Hope this will just hurry up and bottom out so we can look forward to a bounce.

Does not work like that.

Management & the board think they can massage expectations and market perception in an orderly manner but in grossly mismanaging the downgrades, have blown their credibility.

Now up to new CEO to restore credibility and the best way of doing it is to ‘clean’ house.

Took FBU 3 long years to restore its fragile credibility after its string of downgrades. ATM is only 6 months in its downgrades & subsequent credibility restoration process - requires a turnaround in earnings and a resumption of growth imo before sp will establish a base to rise from.

[winner69]

So Jayne left because her husband was sick ....and A2 didn’t handle it well

https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/virgin-ceo-hrdlicka-says-a2-milk-didn-t-handle-her-departure-well-20210312-p57a35.html

Bit of the article sends a tingle down your spine .....and people were critical of her big spending -

The large spending on IT experts, strategy consultants in China, and analysts was necessary, she says, to quickly modernise a2 after it had failed to keep pace with its enormous revenue and distribution growth.

”We didn’t have an IT person in the company when I arrived... not a single IT person,” Ms Hrdlicka says. “Supply chain, the ERP (enterprise resource planning) system, everything was super fine for a company that’s turning over $50 million in revenue, but not one who’s on its way to a billion.”

“So of course you have to spend to get people who know what they’re doing, because you don’t have anybody inside the company wh

[nztx]

So Jayne left because her husband was sick ....and A2 didn’t handle it well

https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/virgin-ceo-hrdlicka-says-a2-milk-didn-t-handle-her-departure-well-20210312-p57a35.html

Bit of the article sends a tingle down your spine .....and people were critical of her big spending -

The large spending on IT experts, strategy consultants in China, and analysts was necessary, she says, to quickly modernise a2 after it had failed to keep pace with its enormous revenue and distribution growth.

”We didn’t have an IT person in the company when I arrived... not a single IT person,” Ms Hrdlicka says. “Supply chain, the ERP (enterprise resource planning) system, everything was super fine for a company that’s turning over $50 million in revenue, but not one who’s on its way to a billion.”

“So of course you have to spend to get people who know what they’re doing, because you don’t have anybody inside the company wh

Are the IT Team done yet ? .. may be time to quit a few of them so Joe Investor can see that the Office levels
aren't unnecessarily overburdened with Computer Bozo's milking the corporate tit for a free ride .. ;)

[Balance]

https://www.havenbaby.co.nz/about-haven

Self-explanatory

[winner69]

Any takeover premium in A2 share price at the moment

Could be a bit in the AFR in next week or so

[tomm]

Watch this space when our beloving Jacinda announce New Zealand's border is set to open following with Australia.

[Sideshow Bob]

https://www.havenbaby.co.nz/about-haven

Self-explanatory

Interesting to see who is in behind it......trying to make it look cottage when they are anything but.....

[Balance]

Interesting to see who is in behind it......trying to make it look cottage when they are anything but.....

https://nutricia.co.nz/karicare/products/infant-formula-gold-plus-0-6-months/?gclid=CjwKCAiAhbeCBhBcEiwAkv2cY13ymU2b6JFLx45i6_2 PkZzd6o7KphMAUt-4Q14VrTopFjqj9fjcVhoCF78QAvD_BwE&gclsrc=aw.ds

And Karicare officially switches their Gold Plus sub-brand over to A2 formulation.

[Balance]

Interesting to see who is in behind it......trying to make it look cottage when they are anything but.....

https://nutricia.co.nz/karicare/products/infant-formula-gold-plus-0-6-months/?gclid=CjwKCAiAhbeCBhBcEiwAkv2cY13ymU2b6JFLx45i6_2 PkZzd6o7KphMAUt-4Q14VrTopFjqj9fjcVhoCF78QAvD_BwE&gclsrc=aw.ds

And Karicare officially switches their Gold Plus sub-brand from A1 over to A2 formulation.

[Beagle]

Looks like ATM's first mover advantage is being eroded away at quite a considerable pace.

[Balance]

Looks like ATM's first mover advantage is being eroded away at quite a considerable pace.

Looks to me like the other companies have no problem accessing A2 milk, and in turn produce A2 IF to compete.

Only one way to go for ATM imo - increased competition resulting in significantly reduced margins.

Fourth downgrade almost a certainty imo when new CEO has done his evaluation and reset the strategy for ATM.

[Beagle]

Looks to me like the other companies have no problem accessing A2 milk, and in turn produce A2 IF to compete.

Only one way to go for ATM imo - increased competition resulting in significantly reduced margins.

Fourth downgrade almost a certainty imo when new CEO has done his evaluation and reset the strategy for ATM.

That doesn't auger well for profit growth in future years does it !

[Biscuit]

That doesn't auger well for profit growth in future years does it !

Augury now! Its all omens and augurs for some of you guys. I think I will set aside the magical thinking and wait to see how well they can return to growth this year.

[Balance]

That doesn't auger well for profit growth in future years does it !

Update on prices at my local Pak n Save :

Haven A2 IF $27.99

Karicare Gold Plus A2 IF $26.99

ATM A2 IF (at Countdown) $44.00

Long long way for ATM’s prices to fall to meet the competition.

Writing is on the wall.

[Akane]

New yearly lows everyday, lovin' it!

DISC: I hate myself.

[Getty]

That doesn't auger well for profit growth in future years does it !

The use of an auger normally means someones .getting screwed.

May not augur well for their future!

[imarktu]

New yearly lows everyday, lovin' it!

DISC: I hate myself.

This is the kind of content I'm here for.

DISC: Also wallowing in self-loathing

[Biscuit]

Update on prices at my local Pak n Save :

Haven A2 IF $27.99

Karicare Gold Plus A2 IF $26.99

ATM A2 IF (at Countdown) $44.00

Long long way for ATM’s prices to fall to meet the competition.

Writing is on the wall.


Quick look at New World online, Anchor Blue 2L milk $4.58; Value Standard 2L $3.51. Gee, that's a 30% premium for Anchor Blue!! That can't auger/augur well for Anchor eh?

[polglase]

Update on prices at my local Pak n Save :

Haven A2 IF $27.99

Karicare Gold Plus A2 IF $26.99

ATM A2 IF (at Countdown) $44.00

Long long way for ATM’s prices to fall to meet the competition.

Writing is on the wall.

Do ATM not supply/license all of these products? Have they not got any IP/patent protection?

[BlackPeter]

Do ATM not supply/license all of these products? Have they not got any IP/patent protection?

A2 is a naturally occurring milk protein. Actually - it is THE naturally occurring milk protein in humans and in the milk of many other mammals. Only the creator might be able to claim a patent for that .... but she probably waited too long with lodging the application, there are time limits, you see :):

A2 Milk used to claim to have some IP related to determining the A2 status of a herd, but there are other ways to do that as well ... and hey, one needs to do that only once - i.e. it is not a significant advantage to have a slightly cheaper or faster test.

Sorry - no moat, just hype.

[polglase]

A2 is a naturally occurring milk protein. Actually - it is THE naturally occurring milk protein in humans and in the milk of many other mammals. Only the creator might be able to claim a patent for that .... but she probably waited too long with lodging the application, there are time limits, you see :):

A2 Milk used to claim to have some IP related to determining the A2 status of a herd, but there are other ways to do that as well ... and hey, one needs to do that only once - i.e. it is not a significant advantage to have a slightly cheaper or faster test.

Sorry - no moat, just hype.

Thanks for the heads up... might watch from the sidelines to see if they can translate early mover advantage into long-term success...

[Balance]

I would not describe ATM as hype - I personally know of friends who could not drink milk (bloated feeling and indigestion) but are now happily drinking A2 milk.

The bigger issue to me is the competitive landscape for A2 milk - intensifying as there’s no real barrier to entry.

Jayne wanted to spend up large to entrench ATM’s first mover advantage but the board decided maintaining short term profits was more critical.

[Beagle]

A2 is a naturally occurring milk protein. Actually - it is THE naturally occurring milk protein in humans and in the milk of many other mammals. Only the creator might be able to claim a patent for that .... but she probably waited too long with lodging the application, there are time limits, you see :):

A2 Milk used to claim to have some IP related to determining the A2 status of a herd, but there are other ways to do that as well ... and hey, one needs to do that only once - i.e. it is not a significant advantage to have a slightly cheaper or faster test.

Sorry - no moat, just hype.

ATM used to make a "real meal" of their IP as though it accorded them genuine patent protection. Its crystal clear now they were just talking a whole lot of rubbish.

[BlackPeter]

I would not describe ATM as hype - I personally know of friends who could not drink milk (bloated feeling and indigestion) but are now happily drinking A2 milk.

The bigger issue to me is the competitive landscape for A2 milk - intensifying as there’s no real barrier to entry.

Jayne wanted to spend up large to entrench ATM’s first mover advantage but the board decided maintaining short term profits was more critical.

Absolutely agree. I never said anything different. There are people who's intestines disagree with the digestion of A1 protein, and for them it is a clear advantage to drink A2 milk. This was not what I referred to.

It is just, that it does not matter to these, whether the A2 milk they need comes from the A2-Milk company, any other company selling A2 milk, or from a real cow (or sheep or goat) :).

Just for the record: For some people it is of clear benefit to drink milk with only A2 protein (compared to the normal supermarket milk mix of A1/A2). However - does not matter in any shape or from for them, whether this A2 milk comes from the A2-milk company, from Danone, any other milk processor or from the Jersey cow (or the sheep or goat) of the friendly neighbor :):

[Balance]

Quick look at New World online, Anchor Blue 2L milk $4.58; Value Standard 2L $3.51. Gee, that's a 30% premium for Anchor Blue!! That can't auger/augur well for Anchor eh?

Keep using that superflous analogy to comfort yourself as you watch ATM's margins shrink in the years ahead - inevitable imo as the big boys, Danone, Nestle and Feihe muscle in on the lucrative & high margin A2 milk market created by ATM. They have scale and access to a more diverse & deep supply chain than ATM - and we are already seeing them with their competitive prices (refer #20866), undercutting ATM's prices.

One of our friends has already switched over from ATM A2 ($44) to Karicare Gold Plus A2 ($26.99) for her son - an irresistible savings of nearly 40% as she puts it.

When the Daigou channel cranks up again in Australia, guess how many customers will opt for that kind of savings too?

Remember that Karicare was the go to brand when the Sanlu IF scandal broke in 2008.

Scary to think of the impact upon ATM's future margins!

[Ggcc]

Keep using that superflous analogy to comfort yourself as you watch ATM's margins shrink in the years ahead - inevitable imo as the big boys, Danone, Nestle and Feihe muscle in on the lucrative & high margin A2 milk market created by ATM. They have scale and access to a more diverse & deep supply chain than ATM - and we are already seeing them with their competitive prices (refer #20866), undercutting ATM's prices.

One of our friends has already switched over from ATM A2 ($44) to Karicare Gold Plus A2 ($26.99) for her son - an irresistible savings of nearly 40% as she puts it.

When the Daigou channel cranks up again in Australia, guess how many customers will opt for that kind of savings too?

Remember that Karicare was the go to brand when the Sanlu IF scandal broke in 2008.

Scary to think of the impact upon ATM's future margins!
One thing you are forgetting is that Chinese people are status oriented. Generally if it’s cheaper it can be seen as inferior, even if it’s not. They will generally buy more what the others are buying especially if it’s prices higher. That is a general statement of the people I have dealt with in retail. Of course post covid things might change.

[Biscuit]

Keep using that superflous analogy to comfort yourself .....

A superfluous analogy would be one that was unnecessary as sufficient evidence had already been presented to prove the case. I suspect you do not mean superfluous. I don't need comforting, I am not emotionally involved either way. I have a small holding in ATM. I'd say there is fair chance you are right about the competition ramping up and that may have a negative effect at some point but I'll wait until I see the figures before I jump to react to a small amount of anecdotal evidence. Lets see where they are later in the year. Can they maintain margin and restart growth. I'd say the jury is still out on that.

[Ferg]

I'm not sure the relatively high retail price of A2 milk and/or infant powder is relevant for an investment discussion given a) not all products compete based on price, b) not everyone buys based on price, c) price sensitive consumers are not sticky and d) I expect price would be the last thing a marketing business would use to be competitive given there are many subtle factors to consider in creating profit. Price is one of many factors but has no relevance for any investment decision I make. Although, if highly paid executives in any organisation were to compete solely based on price, that is not a business in which I would want to invest.

[ralph]

I am sure it is very significant on the same product, that's why most people go to the cheapest gasoline station/garage b p & z survive but when gull moves in nearby they struggle even with those fancy free trade cappuccinos and marketing gurus. What they pay their executives less so of course .
Also the marketing excellent that it was has been superseded by less expensive copy cats using the clean NZ image with an A 2 moo

[winner69]

Jayne has really pissed our Chairman off

Don’t think they are friends

https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/mistruths-falsehoods-war-of-words-erupts-between-a2-milk-and-virgin-s-hrdlicka-20210316-p57b81.html

[Balance]

Jayne has really pissed our Chairman off

Don’t think they are friends

https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/mistruths-falsehoods-war-of-words-erupts-between-a2-milk-and-virgin-s-hrdlicka-20210316-p57b81.html

https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/a2-milk-chief-jayne-hrdlicka-steps-down-20191209-p53i1s.html

Story from a year ago - so who is telling fibs?

Excerpt : " ...... there were “conflicting messages” between Ms Hrdlicka and chairman David Hearn to investors recently. Ms Hrdlicka’s message was that the “company was in investment mode ... and the investors shouldn’t be concerned about EBITDA returns because it was just purely investing for growth. Yet the chairman said that that wasn’t the case, that the company was very much wanting to deliver a strong EBITDA outcome of 30plus per cent.”

[winner69]

Whatever the story Balance, Hearn stuffed up big time ...and he’s still around and big shareholders seem happy with that

Feel sorry for new guy if he has to work for Hearn

[Balance]

Whatever the story Balance, Hearn stuffed up big time ...and he’s still around and big shareholders seem happy with that

Feel sorry for new guy if he has to work for Hearn

Not sure about big shareholders supporting him - let’s see what the new CEO comes up with in the next 6 months.

Jayne’s interview has handed him all the ammunition he ever needed to force changes at ATM.

3 downgrades in less than 5 months tell us that the BOD has no idea how things are really tracking in ATM.

[Beagle]

Jayne has really pissed our Chairman off

Don’t think they are friends

https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/mistruths-falsehoods-war-of-words-erupts-between-a2-milk-and-virgin-s-hrdlicka-20210316-p57b81.html

From the very outset I am on record as saying I think she was never a good fit.

[bucko]

"Ms Hrdlicka’s claim that one of the reasons she needed to spend so much on consultants was that a2 did not have a dedicated IT person when she joined the company."

For $33m ($26m to Bain) you can hire more than just a dedicated IT person...

[winner69]

From the very outset I am on record as saying I think she was never a good fit.

Had the right strategy though

[sb9]

Jayne never stuck cord with A2 shareholders with intention to divest shares from the get go. There's no point now crying out foul and pointing all wrong things from that time. Wonder if she said same thing if sp is north of $20 taking into account that Covid never happened.

She just needs to move on and let current management do their thing. Amongst all this Chair Mr Hearn didn't handle this saga very well from the get go.

I think TIME"S UP FOR HEARN, sure the big boys will vote him out later this year at ASM if he's not already gone by then.

[Akane]

3 downgrades in less than 5 months tell us that the BOD has no idea how things are really tracking in ATM.

I think they were riding that gravy train all the way up, don't really care what's going on in the back ground as long as the honey is still flowing....
Now the ****'s hit the fan (well, more than a year ago really), I hope the BOD gets a kick in the ass, a wake up all and start cleaning up the company.

[Balance]

I think they were riding that gravy train all the way up, don't really care what's going on in the back ground as long as the honey is still flowing....
Now the ****'s hit the fan (well, more than a year ago really), I hope the BOD gets a kick in the ass, a wake up all and start cleaning up the company.

Sp down 26% YTD and breaking through all the support points - now heading down towards $7.50.

Mr Hearn is doing the company no favors, engaging in a public slanging match with Jayne via the media.

https://www.fool.com.au/2021/03/17/a2-milk-asxa2m-share-price-lower-amid-ex-ceo-drama/

AFR adds that Ms Hrdlicka, however, released the following statement:

The information in the letter contains false statements, is contextually incorrect and designed to inflict maximum damage on me personally. I wrote to Mr Hearn today seeking clarification and further information on a number of matters and have not yet received a reply.

[Baa_Baa]

The whole Ms Hrdlicka vs Hearn thing is a distraction, irrelevant past tense. $7.50 marked on my chart, Legend @Balance gives guidance on the buy of the decade.

[Balance]

The whole Ms Hrdlicka vs Hearn thing is a distraction, irrelevant past tense. $7.50 marked on my chart, Legend @Balance gives guidance on the buy of the decade.

Irrelevant?

I would say as pertinent & as insightful as you are ever going to get about how ATM has been managed & directed as a company.

That’s probably why some shareholders have decided to sell out - because it is clear that the new CEO has a task & some serious issues ahead of him with a Chairman & Board who appointed Jayne & then, decided to part company for obscure reasons which are now surfacing into the public arena.

Meanwhile, since you use charts, are you reading the support points and trend line any differently to my observation that A2M is heading towards A$7.50?

As for the buy of the decade, I thought that some of you believed $10 was buy of the century?

[Balance]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/continuous-disclosure-the-media-furore-over-controversial-former-a2-milk-boss-jayne-hrdlicka/ETUQ7K3KEMW5CZ5YC6RYLYCBA4/

paywalled

Looks like both parties in ATM have decided to call it a truce - should never have happened in the first place.

Meanwhile, Forbar has done some scouting around in China :

"There is nothing to change our view that the opportunity for the a2 Milk Co is material in offline channels in China, where it currently under-indexes, and we see a2 Milk as well-placed to continue to grow.

"However there are increasing headwinds evident in our channel checks (slowing industry growth and growing competition from local brands) which means execution is important and suggests a continued lift in marketing and investment in-store will be required by a2 Milk," the broker said.

[Balance]

duplicate duplicate

[Akane]

Meanwhile, Forbar has done some scouting around in China :

"There is nothing to change our view that the opportunity for the a2 Milk Co is material in offline channels in China, where it currently under-indexes, and we see a2 Milk as well-placed to continue to grow.

"However there are increasing headwinds evident in our channel checks (slowing industry growth and growing competition from local brands) which means execution is important and suggests a continued lift in marketing and investment in-store will be required by a2 Milk," the broker said.

Please correct me if I'm wrong, but does that sound like "Yeah we're gonna be rekt, but it's okay we're still doing ok, and we won't change the way we do things"?

[Joshuatree]

Yeah all bases covered ehh. What does rekt mean Akane?

[Joshuatree]

This website dying a slow death by a thousand cuts.

[aperitif]

A2M Takeover Target/Strategic Acquisition?

These are my notes and intended for my research purposes only

a2 is currently out of favour and has been punished by the market for a few reasons; management selling, lack of transparency re daigou/inventory/pricing, EBITDA margins, fourth downgrade, new CEO, stronger NZD, JH debacle, China tensions etc

Large multinational brands are struggling to sell infant formula into China and a2 will now be on their radar. Nestle, RB and Danone all mentioned in their earnings calls they are actively on the hunt for M&A opportunities as they are struggling to differentiate…

Rationale

· Li Xiao(China CEO) previously worked for Multinationals
· New Chinese board member (Bessie Lee)
· Board/Management haven’t bought(privy)/sold, PN has 800,000 shares expiring on 12 May 2021…
· New CEO David Bortolussi has a strong background in the consumer goods industry. He transformed Pacific Brands to be acquired by Hanesbrands where he took up the role as MD…
· CFO Race Strauss – 20 years at Unilever Australasia responsible for M&A etc
· No share buyback(privy)
· MVM acquisition – Supplier and geographic diversification, CAHG retain 25% interest and acquirer will get access to a world class facility in NZ
· Deep and long lasting relationship with China State Farm
· Key China Registrations (Dunsandel/MVM down the track)
· China Label is selling at ~40% pcp!
· Diversified into UHT Smart Nutrition and Full Cream 200ml offerings
· Institutions still holding a fair chunk of the register
· Stock price is trading at a two year lows

Nestle - Good strategic fit?

· Their a2 offering has had poor uptake in China, a potential scenario could be Nestle cease all a2 sales and take a strategic stake in a2(~15%) utilizing their large distribution network to push sales. Similar to when Coke purchased a stake in MNST.
· Starbucks/Nestle relationship. Oatly just signed nationwide distribution(USA) a2 something similar???
· Manufacturing capability and product innovation in the US

Interested to hear others thoughts. I have a few more notes regarding comparable valuations/premiums for those interested!

[Gerald]

Wouldn't be suprised if we saw something, after all Ballamys was something like 30x ebitda which makes atm look cheap.

[bull....]

Australia's population shrinks for the first time since WWI as COVID turns off immigration tap
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-03-24/population-declines-as-covid-border-closures-bite/13256938

less babies = less infant formula sales. simple maths. covid means a population decline in new births world wide

[BlackPeter]

Australia's population shrinks for the first time since WWI as COVID turns off immigration tap
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-03-24/population-declines-as-covid-border-closures-bite/13256938

less babies = less infant formula sales. simple maths. covid means a population decline in new births world wide

Population decline due to lack of immigration does not impact on the number of babies needing milk formula ... unless you are saying that its mainly babies immigrating to Australia?

[Blue Skies]

Australia's population shrinks for the first time since WWI as COVID turns off immigration tap


https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-03-24/population-declines-as-covid-border-closures-bite/13256938

less babies = less infant formula sales. simple maths. covid means a population decline in new births world wide



If anyone seriously worried about the maths, i.e. less babies = less IF sales, personally - I wouldn't.
Over 10 Million babies born in China last year, most of us can't really comprehend the size of this market, A2 barely touching the surface of it.
Worry about other things instead. :)

[bull....]

If anyone seriously worried about the maths, i.e. less babies = less IF sales, personally - I wouldn't.
Over 10 Million babies born in China last year, most of us can't really comprehend the size of this market, A2 barely touching the surface of it.
Worry about other things instead. :)

you not taking into account feihei is the national champion in the infant formula space now , used to be a2. as nationalism rises so will local brand buying. baby births declining world wide means the available market in the future is smaller with potentially more players fighting for declining market share

[davflaws]

[QUOTE=bull....;877699]you not taking into account feihei is the national champion in the infant formula space now , used to be a2. as nationalism rises so will local brand buying. baby births declining world wide means the available market in the future is smaller with potentially more players fighting for declining market share]

With respect, although the facts you provide are accurate, I don't agree that they provide a significant increase in risk to ATM. Even with a reduced number of babies, increasing preference for local brands, and increased competition in the market, the opportunities are still enormous.

Disc: I dropped half my ATM holding at 12.90 for reasons that had nothing to do with my belief in ATM's prospects.

[Balance]

[QUOTE=bull....;877699]you not taking into account feihei is the national champion in the infant formula space now , used to be a2. as nationalism rises so will local brand buying. baby births declining world wide means the available market in the future is smaller with potentially more players fighting for declining market share]

With respect, although the facts you provide are accurate, I don't agree that they provide a significant increase in risk to ATM. Even with a reduced number of babies, increasing preference for local brands, and increased competition in the market, the opportunities are still enormous.

Disc: I dropped half my ATM holding at 12.90 for reasons that had nothing to do with my belief in ATM's prospects.

Huge market, enormous opportunities and intense competition - no free lunches out there.

Meanwhile, here's the latest recommendation update from Citi :

A2 Milk share price rated as a sell

Citi analysts have paid close attention to the results of Feihe, the largest and most highly recognised Chinese infant milk formula company. Feihe reported an online and offline market share of 17.20% in Q3 2020, with an ambitious goal to have at least 30% market share by 2023. The broker believes that competition is likely to continue for foreign infant milk formula players such as A2.

Citi maintained a sell rating for A2 Milk shares with a $7.15 target price. The broker believes that reseller inventory could be moving closer to expiry, forcing them to sell it at a discount.

Taking a look at the bigger picture, Citi highlights ongoing pressures with birthrates as a threat to infant formula demand. It also believes that Australia-China geopolitical tensions could ultimately restrict inventory flow.

Citi isn’t the only one bearish on the A2 Milk share price. The Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) announced on Tuesday it had reduced its stake in A2 Milk from 46.9 million shares or 6.34% of the company to 39.5 million shares or 5.32%.

[Beagle]

Forecasted FY21 eps of 33 cps, probably only ~ 28 cents per share after the fourth downgrade. Put a no growth PE of 11 on that and ~ $3 is possible.

Wonder if a well known former poster has gone "all in" ?

[Balance]

Smart people are loading up exept trollers looking for cheap entry .... :t_up:

Sp was $9.82 then when the ‘smart’ people were loading up!

Going to be A$7.50 by next week at the current declining sp rate of between 1% to 2% a day.

And this is happening before the new CEO downgrade!

[alokdhir]

If the dreaded fourth downgrade comes and SP tanks 15-20 % then I am ready to take the plunge again ...lost some when bailed out before Dec downgrade as followed KFL advise that things not happening as anticipated

Think 7-750 shud be low enough price to make some money in 12 months time !!!

[nztx]

If the dreaded fourth downgrade comes and SP tanks 15-20 % then I am ready to take the plunge again ...lost some when bailed out before Dec downgrade as followed KFL advise that things not happening as anticipated

Think 7-750 shud be low enough price to make some money in 12 months time !!!

The way things are going I'm holding off until 5 bucks comes into range before getting interested again .. ;)

Maybe paying a respectable dividend could halt the slide ? ;)

[bull....]

bit of support at $8 then not much below till $2. better hope a2 dont critisize china human rights like nike etc or 2 probably be reality

[Sideshow Bob]

bit of support at $8 then not much below till $2. better hope a2 dont critisize china human rights like nike etc or 2 probably be reality

Me thinks A2 have other things on their plate than worrying about criticizing China on human rights.....!!

[Balance]

Me thinks A2 have other things on their plate than worrying about criticizing China on human rights.....!!

ATM uses cotton in its IF? :eek2:

[winner69]

Me thinks A2 have other things on their plate than worrying about criticizing China on human rights.....!!

Nanaia Mahuta might do it for them ....... or maybe that guy whose the Minister of Farming might open his mouth without thinking again

[Balance]

Nanaia Mahuta might do it for them ....... or maybe that guy whose the Minister of Farming might open his mouth without thinking again

Not him - he is on the right side of China.

Cindy may do so though - the cynical one has been busy sniffing Biden's armpits and could very well blow it for NZ.

[nztx]

Like a Rock skimming across the surface .. sooner or later it sinks flatter & flatter .. ;)

It may be time to put the diving suit on soon ;)

[nztx]

Nanaia Mahuta might do it for them ....... or maybe that guy whose the Minister of Farming might open his mouth without thinking again


Leave Labor's two most inspiring Ministers alone will ya .. ;)

after Grundyman Dover left .. there wasn't such amazing talent onboard until these hidden talentpieces were
discovered abandoned in a back cupboard ..

I hear that someone is wanting to purchase a bus to paint both the front & back in wonderful imagery ..
and it dont hail from down the West Coast either .. ;)

[Joshuatree]

Im having a Vooddkaa and OriNGGE too but the diviRence izz That i nose im not making scentzzz. Bigglee Dyfference:t_up: CherrzY

[nztx]

Im having a Vooddkaa and OriNGGE too but the diviRence izz That i nose im not making scentzzz. Bigglee Dyfference:t_up: CherrzY


Have a Good One .. ps: don't eat the glass .. :)

[Balance]

https://www.just-food.com/news/reckitt-benckiser-moves-closer-to-selling-china-infant-formula-arm_id145411.aspx

Interesting times for players in China:

Foreign infant formula business for sale in China.

[bull....]

china will be releasing birth figures soon for last year, early figures from some provinces show a huge drop. be interesting

[Balance]

Meanwhile, the posters who were rubbishing China's domestic IF players should take pause and have a close look at how Feihe is doing:

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/6186.HK/financials?p=6186.HK

Powering on, increasing market share and delivering an EBITDA margin of 46% - double that of ATM.

Feihe Sp has gone up 151% since Jan 2020

vs

ATM down 41% over the same period

=

192% difference in performance. :eek2:

This is what happens when shareholders in ATM wear rose-tinted glasses when they view the world.

[Beagle]

When's the fourth downgrade mate, May or June ?
Maybe it'll come in April and there could even be a fifth downgrade in June :eek2:

[winner69]

Meanwhile, the posters who were rubbishing China's domestic IF players should take pause and have a close look at how Feihe is doing:

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/6186.HK/financials?p=6186.HK

Powering on, increasing market share and delivering an EBITDA margin of 46% - double that of ATM.

Feihe Sp has gone up 151% since Jan 2020

vs

ATM down 41% over the same period

=

192% difference in performance. :eek2:

This is what happens when shareholders in ATM wear rose-tinted glasses when they view the world.

You shouldn't do the sums the easy way mate

$1000 bucks in A2 Jan 20 now worth $590
$1000 bucks in Feihe Jan 20 now worth $$2505

So instwad of your 192% difference in performance I reckon its 324% -- you 324% better off if $1000 invested in Feihe instead of A2

[Bobdn]

I'm just ETFing these days through Smartshares, indexing through KernelWealth, and also have a little (10 per cent) in actively managed Devonfunds.

My NZ exposure is mostly through FNZ.NZX which appears to limit each company to no more than 5 per cent of the fund. I was surprised to see that ATM now isn't in the top 10 holdings in that fund. The NZX50 index (captured by NZG for Smartshares and based on market cap) has ATM at over 6 per cent. I'm guessing that a lot of kiwisaver funds just use the NZX50 (?) so the decline in price must be having a bit of an impact for many kiwisaver investors.

I still have the urge to buy individual shares every now and again. But I if I wait a little while the urge passes - just like it does for other potential impulse purchases.

[Balance]

When's the fourth downgrade mate, May or June ?
Maybe it'll come in April and there could even be a fifth downgrade in June :eek2:

New CEO will be going through the whole company with a fine tooth-comb before presenting his reset strategy.

Could be late May at this stage before he makes an announcement.

[alokdhir]

I know one thing that when it looks stock will keep falling and there is no hope for it and all become sellers ...then is the best time to buy it ...show courage when all have given up ...So next downgrade or at $ 7.50 ....I am in for long term ....

[Lease]

I know one thing that when it looks stock will keep falling and there is no hope for it and all become sellers ...then is the best time to buy it ...show courage when all have given up ...So next downgrade or at $ 7.50 ....I am in for long term ....

Definitely mate, I am against negative views here and buying ATM now. A2 IF has very strong brand awareness in China and people love it. It has huge potential for market penetration there.

People here seems ATM will never recover. Haha, let's see it will recover.

[Beagle]

You shouldn't do the sums the easy way mate

$1000 bucks in A2 Jan 20 now worth $590
$1000 bucks in Feihe Jan 20 now worth $$2505

So instwad of your 192% difference in performance I reckon its 324% -- you 324% better off if $1000 invested in Feihe instead of A2

Perfect example of why I try and mitigate losses and protect my capital when a stock goes into decline. Its not just the money you lose, its the opportunity cost of not having that capital invested in a well performing stock. The difference is chalk and cheese.

[davflaws]

When's the fourth downgrade mate, May or June ?
Maybe it'll come in April and there could even be a fifth downgrade in June :eek2:

Bloody Cindy and her lying socialist crew!

[davflaws]

Feihe Sp has gone up 151% since Jan 2020

vs

ATM down 41% over the same period

=

192% difference in performance. :eek2:

This is what happens when shareholders in ATM wear rose-tinted glasses when they view the world.

And also what happens when people who are very keen to make a point add percentages derived from different bases.

[Habits]

I know one thing that when it looks stock will keep falling and there is no hope for it and all become sellers ...then is the best time to buy it ...show courage when all have given up ...So next downgrade or at $ 7.50 ....I am in for long term ....

To me trends are important, they have momentum and when you think a company has already taken a hiding there is often more coming. I made the right decision to exit over $11 pre-announcement with only a fractional loss and switched the funds into FSF. You are entitled to your view as different views make a market, but while the negatives keep coming i dont see ATM as a viable investment

[Balance]

I know one thing that when it looks stock will keep falling and there is no hope for it and all become sellers ...then is the best time to buy it ...show courage when all have given up ...So next downgrade or at $ 7.50 ....I am in for long term ....

But you stated in a previous post that you would be in if the sp approaches $8.50 or thereabouts following the third downgrade ?

What made you change your mind as ATM hit $8.50 recently?

[Balance]

And also what happens when people who are very keen to make a point add percentages derived from different bases.

Hardly different bases - 2 points to note:

1. There were many disparaging remarks by many an ATM shareholder here about domestic competition in China when that was highlighted as a risk factor,

&

2. Feihe listed in late 2019 - hence the time frame to compare the performances of Feihe vs ATM.

We can use the comparison base from when Feihe was listed on 10 Nov 2019 - in which case, Feihe has put on 197% vs ATM down 31.5% = 228.5% difference. Even worse! :eek2:

[bull....]

Hardly different bases - 2 points to note:

1. There were many disparaging remarks by many an ATM shareholder here about domestic competition in China when that was highlighted as a risk factor,

&

2. Feihe listed in late 2019 - hence the time frame to compare the performances of Feihe vs ATM.

We can use the comparison base from when Feihe was listed on 10 Nov 2019 - in which case, Feihe has put on 197% vs ATM down 31.5% = 228.5% difference. Even worse! :eek2:

and who was the first one too mention feihe as the best thing coming along ummm i think it was bull ... wonder if bull owned any ?

[see weed]

I'm expecting a good caning from Beagle this afternoon. You should recognize me, I will be bent over a chair wearing rose tinted glasses and eating a dozen oysters. A2 was 100% of my portfolio 9 months ago, but only for a couple of scary weeks. It is now only 27% of portfolio. The only shares I have now were bought at 50c and $7.19c with average price of $2.99c. Have been hearing a lot lately about $7.50 becoming the new low. Am definitely going to keep the 50c shares but might sell the others, will decide next week. My a2 holding is still in the green, but have lost a bit on the way:).

[Beagle]

I'll see if Mrs B will let me borrow her cane :D

[porkandpuha]

Checking in once again and it appears this thread is now being kept alive almost exclusively by non holders. Strange.

In more positive news, at least the ST site in general is now alive too

[Balance]

Checking in once again and it appears this thread is now being kept alive almost exclusively by non holders. Strange.

In more positive news, at least the ST site in general is now alive too

And saving those who bother to listen a lot of $$$$ by them selling out or staying out.

What have you contributed?

More losses, right?

[aperitif]

Keep it coming guys!

Emotion, be it fear or greed, is the greatest enemy of the ordinary investor. The point of maximum opportunity is when the crowd is pessimistic (or fearful) and the point of maximum risk is when the crowd is euphoric (and greedy)

[nztx]

Can someone ring the bell when we get to 7 Dollar 50 please ? ;)

may have some small change leftover from divies due to buy one or two more then .. ;)

[Oberon]

Keep it coming guys!

Emotion, be it fear or greed, is the greatest enemy of the ordinary investor. The point of maximum opportunity is when the crowd is pessimistic (or fearful) and the point of maximum risk is when the crowd is euphoric (and greedy)

Thing is though, how much headwind is there for the company? While I generally agree with the above maxim, the fact is - this company is in trouble. My concern for some LTHs is blaming it all on insto manipulation (see HC). I've seen those games played numerous times with A2 - this strikes me as a little more dire than the usual hijinks from UBS and co.

I don't follow much of what's happening with A2 anymore, admittedly. But a brief skim of some threads I've spotted - lower birth rates, a Chinese competitor powering along and scooping up market share, crickets from the powers that be (as per usual) and of course, ongoing tensions between China and Australia. I'm not exactly brimming with confidence.

I was never comfortable with so many eggs in the China basket. Dunno what's happening State side, but I wouldn't be surprised if they wrap things up there as they did in the UK. It's a notoriously hard market to crack.

I held off and on over 2019 and early 2020. I kicked myself for jumping ship after the Covid crash - considered myself lucky I got out at break even. If you'd told me after A2 rocketed to a new ATH it'd be sitting at $8 AUD in less than a year, I'd have laughed you out of the room.

Don't EVER marry yourself to a stock / company and fall victim to one-eyed bias. But, if your read on the fundamentals is that this is going to rise from the ashes like a phoenix, then buy away (just be prepared to hold your breath underwater for a month or 12).

Just edited to add:


Update on prices at my local Pak n Save :

Haven A2 IF $27.99

Karicare Gold Plus A2 IF $26.99

ATM A2 IF (at Countdown) $44.00

Long long way for ATM’s prices to fall to meet the competition.

Writing is on the wall.

That says it all, really.

[nztx]

how much is ATM's vast cash pile right now ?

how could they be in trouble ? ;)

[alokdhir]

But you stated in a previous post that you would be in if the sp approaches $8.50 or thereabouts following the third downgrade ?

What made you change your mind as ATM hit $8.50 recently?

Got scared reading BBB posts ...so changed to 7.50 ...:D

[bull....]

terrible result from synliat today , this part really interesting that a2 cannot work out there demand in the future things must be really bad and uncertain

from synliat

Ongoing uncertainty in The a2 Milk Company’s expected demand for the remainder of FY21 and FY22. Synlait does not currently have sufficient confidence to forecast when this recovery will occur. The resulting impact of this on Synlait’s business is two-fold: demand for consumer-packaged infant formula remains uncertain, which in turn impacts forward infant base powder production and asset use

[BlackPeter]

Keep it coming guys!

Emotion, be it fear or greed, is the greatest enemy of the ordinary investor. The point of maximum opportunity is when the crowd is pessimistic (or fearful) and the point of maximum risk is when the crowd is euphoric (and greedy)

Wise sounding words, however in practical terms absolutely useless. Problem is - you only know with the benefit of hindsight when this point of maximum risk happened ... and unfortunately - at times - it happens not to be the point of maximum opportunity, but the point to say goodbye - goodbye to the relevant share and goodbye to your invested money :t_down:;

But sure - everything will be fine in ATM land. Question is just, will they recover to an earnings CAGR of 15 - and be worth their current share price, will they return to a higher earnings CAGR (and increase in share price), or will they turn into a boring no growth company (as they currently are) and be worth half the share price people pay for it at current.

Obviously - there is still this option of margins being eaten by the competition, but better lets not think about that option, shall we :scared: ?

[LEMON]

Synlaits baby formula production down significantly.
Do we know if MVM is producing much powder of A2. on a large scale, surely not yet?

[Balance]

terrible result from synliat today , this part really interesting that a2 cannot work out there demand in the future things must be really bad and uncertain

from synliat

Ongoing uncertainty in The a2 Milk Company’s expected demand for the remainder of FY21 and FY22. Synlait does not currently have sufficient confidence to forecast when this recovery will occur. The resulting impact of this on Synlait’s business is two-fold: demand for consumer-packaged infant formula remains uncertain, which in turn impacts forward infant base powder production and asset use

Totally consistent with the new CEO going through the company's operations and businesses with a fine tooth comb before resetting strategy & giving suppliers like SML indications of future demand.

Fourth downgrade on the way, I would say.

[Beagle]

terrible result from synliat today , this part really interesting that a2 cannot work out there demand in the future things must be really bad and uncertain

from synliat

Ongoing uncertainty in The a2 Milk Company’s expected demand for the remainder of FY21 and FY22. Synlait does not currently have sufficient confidence to forecast when this recovery will occur. The resulting impact of this on Synlait’s business is two-fold: demand for consumer-packaged infant formula remains uncertain, which in turn impacts forward infant base powder production and asset use

That's quite ominous.

[Balance]

That's quite ominous.

Wait for the reaction of Australian shareholders and analysts - could be a very rough day & week ahead for A2M.

[Beagle]

Wait for the reaction of Australian shareholders and analysts - could be a very rough day & week ahead for A2M.
https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/THE-A2-MILK-COMPANY-LIMIT-11384022/financials/ At this point average analysts view is they're forecasting a recovery in FY22 over FY21 as follows :-
Sales recovering from $1,382m in FY21 to $1,640m in FY22 to $1,910 in FY23
NPAT recovering from $232m in FY21 to $281m in FY22 to $346m in FY23

I think there's substantial risk around those recovery assumptions and FY21's numbers.

[sb9]

Totally consistent with the new CEO going through the company's operations and businesses with a fine tooth comb before resetting strategy & giving suppliers like SML indications of future demand.

Fourth downgrade on the way, I would say.

The way things are going with sp, market has already priced in a fourth downgrade, its all about future landscape under new CEO that'll determine further course of action. Most of what laid out in SML's numbers isn't anything new.

Things are in very fluid place right now with A2, SML and MVM all in strategic play with their respective Chinese counterparts/owners.

[Balance]

The way things are going with sp, market has already priced in a fourth downgrade, its all about future landscape under new CEO that'll determine further course of action. Most of what laid out in SML's numbers isn't anything new.

Things are in very fluid place right now with A2, SML and MVM all in strategic play with their respective Chinese counterparts/owners.

Market is pricing in uncertainties.

A fourth downgrade is one of the uncertainties.

CEO ‘quitting’ just like Jayne is another. You read it here first.

[winner69]

The way things are going with sp, market has already priced in a fourth downgrade, its all about future landscape under new CEO that'll determine further course of action. Most of what laid out in SML's numbers isn't anything new.

Things are in very fluid place right now with A2, SML and MVM all in strategic play with their respective Chinese counterparts/owners.

Our governments silence on human rights in China is deafening ....shame

[Balance]

Our governments silence on human rights in China is deafening ....shame

But okay with human rights in the Middle East & Islamic countries, as long as Cindy gets to wear the hijab?

And don’t forget the US where minorities are being stripped off their voting rights / that’s okay too?

[Sideshow Bob]

Confirmed today by SML, but have said before that clearly A2 can't forecast their way out of a paper bag. To be this was exhibited by their series of announcements last year and the rapid downgrades.

Don't even have an ERP system says Jayne.

[alokdhir]

Our governments silence on human rights in China is deafening ....shame

After seeing what China is doing to H&M and Nike ...they are told to keep quite by our exporters ...mainly Fonterra ...ATM is a small fry

[Balance]

Confirmed today by SML, but have said before that clearly A2 can't forecast their way out of a paper bag. To be this was exhibited by their series of announcements last year and the rapid downgrades.

Don't even have an ERP system says Jayne.

Not true - no less than the Chairman (who sold heaps of shares before the downgrade) refuted Jayne’s claims?

He must know what he is saying as he sold those shares close to ATH!

[Balance]

After seeing what China is doing to H&M and Nike ...they are told to keep quite by our exporters ...mainly Fonterra ...ATM is a small fry

Now now - we want to encourage the likes of W69 to stick up for human rights.

But not human rights in Middle East or US, it seems?

It is okay to have double standards in NZ?

And there was an anti-Asian-racism rally in Auckland yesterday - I thought I saw W69 there but I guess I am mistaken.

[rayonline]

I sold up at 9.14. ASB Morningstar still says accumulate ;-)

7.50? 6.50?

[tomm]

Latest Update - We are currently investigating an error that is occurring when retrieving market depth data for the ASX. You can contact one of our Operators on 0800 805 777, option 1 however we apologise if there is a delay to answering your call due to higher volumes.

[Sideshow Bob]

Not true - no less than the Chairman (who sold heaps of shares before the downgrade) refuted Jayne’s claims?

He must know what he is saying as he sold those shares close to ATH!

Can obviously forecast where the share price is going better than the company can forecast sales and demand....... ;)

Not a fan of Mr Chairman and think time to move on. Who employed Jayne?? Obviously not on each others Xmas card list.

[sb9]

Can obviously forecast where the share price is going better than the company can forecast sales and demand....... ;)

Not a fan of Mr Chairman and think time to move on.

Just highlighting the bit that's hurting A2 most atm and "MR HEARN NEEDS TO GO"....

[davflaws]

Hardly different bases - 2 points to note:

1. There were many disparaging remarks by many an ATM shareholder here about domestic competition in China when that was highlighted as a risk factor,

&

2. Feihe listed in late 2019 - hence the time frame to compare the performances of Feihe vs ATM.

We can use the comparison base from when Feihe was listed on 10 Nov 2019 - in which case, Feihe has put on 197% vs ATM down 31.5% = 228.5% difference. Even worse! :eek2:

The fact that you can add 151% and 41% to get 191% is evidence that you can do arithmetic. The fact that you did so is evidence that you didn't/don't understand what the figures represent. See #2094.

[Balance]

The fact that you can add 151% and 41% to get 191% is evidence that you can do arithmetic. The fact that you did so is evidence that you didn't/don't understand what the figures represent. See #2094.

Actually it's 192%, not 191%, to start with.

But if you have a better way to measure relative performances between two stocks, I am always keen to learn and admit my mistake.

Floor is yours.

[Snow Leopard]

You shouldn't do the sums the easy way mate

$1000 bucks in A2 Jan 20 now worth $590
$1000 bucks in Feihe Jan 20 now worth $$2505

So instwad of your 192% difference in performance I reckon its 324% -- you 324% better off if $1000 invested in Feihe instead of A2


Actually it's 192%, not 191%, to start with.

But if you have a better way to measure relative performances between two stocks, I am always keen to learn and admit my mistake.

Floor is yours.

Apparently you are a bit slow on the uptake.

[Traderx]

Hi ATM gurus

Can anyone tell me please:

I've recently started buying Karicare A2 milk formula (specifically the product below). My question: does ATM receive any benefit from this purchase? The A2 milk company branded A2 formula is much more expensive

https://nutricia.co.nz/karicare/products/gold-plus-a2-protein-milk-formula-stage-3/

Similarly also - Fresha Valley A2 milk (link below) - what benefit flows to ATM?

https://shop.countdown.co.nz/shop/productdetails?stockcode=282801&name=fresha-valley-milk-standard-a2

EDIT - also any comment on ATM linkage to Haven A2 (brand by Zuru of toys fame)
https://www.havenbaby.co.nz/products/stage-3

Thanks

[wilba]

Fresha Valley was one of the original licensee's of A2 Milk (think they may have actually been the first to market), i.e. they paid ATM

I notice Lewis Road now have their own A2 range out. But in my own mind that is a play at Jersey Girl Milk who seemed to be making inroads at New World (and doing better than Lewis Road imo from a quality standpoint)

[davflaws]

Actually it's 192%, not 191%, to start with.

But if you have a better way to measure relative performances between two stocks, I am always keen to learn and admit my mistake.

Floor is yours.

Sweet - you are clearly better at arithmetic than I am (or at the very least typing and checking) - and it is fine to compare the percentage change in the prices of stocks over time, but you can''t add the percentages (or subtract them) in any sense other than as a meaningless arithmetical calculation - not because the base periods differ (you can approximate that) - but because the base amounts on which the percentage increases are calculated differ. See W69s post.

[Balance]

Sweet - you are clearly better at arithmetic than I am (or at the very least typing and checking) - and it is fine to compare the percentage change in the prices of stocks over time, but you can''t add the percentages (or subtract them) in any sense other than as a meaningless arithmetical calculation - not because the base periods differ (you can approximate that) - but because the base amounts on which the percentage increases are calculated differ. See W69s post.

Yawn - you go ahead snd do it your way then, and I will continue to do it my way as I have over the decades when comparing performances of stocks - one vs another, and stock vs the overall market or sector.

And that’s how funds do it as well when they report to unit holders.

[winner69]

Shareclarity have a DCF value $11.90 ....ATM share price 37% below this ...cool eh

[davflaws]

Yawn - you go ahead snd do it your way then, and I will continue to do it my way as I have over the decades when comparing performances of stocks - one vs another, and stock vs the overall market or sector.

And that’s how funds do it as well when they report to unit holders.

Kia ora Balance. One more time (since you are always ready to learn and admit your mistakes).

Feihe Sp has gone up 151% since Jan 2020 - (nearly) TRUE

vs

ATM down 41% over the same period - (nearly) TRUE

=

192% difference in performance. - COMPLETELY FALSE

[Rawz]

Lies, damned lies, and statistics

[Balance]

Shareclarity have a DCF value $11.90 ....ATM share price 37% below this ...cool eh

Oh wow!

Wonder if Jardens will embrace this valuation and push ATM into their clients' portfolios!

[Akane]

Who cares what the real comparative % is, all I see is ATM is f#&*@'d

Has CEO got a plan yet? Or still sitting pretty with his finger up his bum?

[Balance]

Who cares what the real comparative % is, all I see is ATM is f#&*@'d

Has CEO got a plan yet? Or still sitting pretty with his finger up his bum?

Now, let's be fair - he only came onboard in February.

Good things do take time.

[Balance]

How’s this for relative performances?


Selling almost all of my ATM shares to get back into SKO has certainly been a great decision so far. And I won't sell my stake as easily as I did when Covid hit again.

[Waltzing]

7.60 next support level.

[alokdhir]

Oh wow!

Wonder if Jardens will embrace this valuation and push ATM into their clients' portfolios!

Jarden cant get their maths right in recent article on NZ Herald they claimed NZ markets up 15 % from Jan 2020 till March 2021 ...My foot ...Jan 2020 high was 11900 and March 2021 low was 12085 ...its close to 1.5 % ...they just got their decimal wrong


In 2020 we saw capital markets oscillate between unequivocal fear - with days of 12 per cent swings in share prices - to a period of irrational exuberance as markets rallied more than 50 per cent in record time. Fast-forward to March 2021; New Zealand has a market up 15 per cent since pre-Covid January 2020, and up by more than 20 per cent in the US despite the economic damage Covid-19 has caused.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/covid-and-the-markets-top-three-things-for-investors-to-consider-in-2021-etfs-and-financial-products/EWKMWVQS7HNCUEX6Q5LJHNZK4I/

[silu]

How’s this for relative performances?

So far ATM went down -12% from sell price and SKO appreciated +16%. It's a considerate amount let alone the nerves I'm saving from not reading the threads here and on HC for ATM anymore (well at least until this morning when I got bored).

[winner69]

So far ATM went down -12% from sell price and SKO appreciated +16%. It's a considerate amount let alone the nerves I'm saving from not reading the threads here and on HC for ATM anymore (well at least until this morning when I got bored).

For balance and davflaws

Is silu 28% better off .... or cash wise 32% betetr off

I just say he's heaps better off

[Sideshow Bob]

For balance and davflaws

Is silu 28% better off .... or cash wise 32% betetr off

I just say he's heaps better off

Including or excluding brokerage......?? :ohmy:

[Balance]

For balance and davflaws

Is silu 28% better off .... or cash wise 32% betetr off

I just say he's heaps better off

Whatever it is for whoever it is, it beats the hell out of being in ATM since September 2020!

[Jim]

Whatever it is for whoever it is, it beats the hell out of being in ATM since September 2020!

It is still falling I wonder when will it stop falling below $8 ??

[alokdhir]

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/world/300266622/consumer-boycotts-warn-of-trouble-ahead-for-western-firms-in-china

[dabsman]

I'm back in. Small position but will accumulate from now on. Who knows where this ends up but I think it is a good long term hold or a medium term takeover target. The chinese way - ban/block or make it difficult for a product then go and buy the companies it cripples

[Akane]

Now, let's be fair - he only came onboard in February.

Good things do take time.

Whilst sitting on my sofa last night, dreaming about life not being a bagholder....... I wonder if the new CEO is just trying to ride it out until he can negotiate a buy out deal...... possible?

[MarineSalvage]

good for you Dabsman. For me ATM is like the 6 Highlanders currently unavailable for selection... ATM will need to work hard and show its worthy of another look...
I'm back in. Small position but will accumulate from now on. Who knows where this ends up but I think it is a good long term hold or a medium term takeover target. The chinese way - ban/block or make it difficult for a product then go and buy the companies it cripples

[Sideshow Bob]

good for you Dabsman. For me ATM is like the 6 Highlanders currently unavailable for selection... ATM will need to work hard and show its worthy of another look...

Using the Highlanders analogy, the immediate challenges are like facing the Crusaders......

I'm wanting to see some positive news, and see some sort of uptrend form.

[MarineSalvage]

me too Bob
Using the Highlanders analogy, the immediate challenges are like facing the Crusaders......

I'm wanting to see some positive news, and see some sort of uptrend form.

[tomm]

Expecting a green day today.

[Ferg]

I'm back in. Small position but will accumulate from now on.
Same. I'm a contrarian. Small holding and accumulating. I know one shouldn't catch a falling knife but there comes a point where this is oversold - although it's hard to tell where that level is in light of the current SP trend versus growth in the non-daigou Chinese channels and growth in the US market share. ATM have a very small share of some very large markets. And if this shake-up results in a move away from and/or less reliance on daigou, then ATM will come out of this a better business. Daigou channels don't sit well with me from the perspective of sustainable business.

[Akane]

expecting a green day today.

hahahahahaha

[Beagle]

Same. I'm a contrarian. Small holding and accumulating. I know one shouldn't catch a falling knife but there comes a point where this is oversold - although it's hard to tell where that level is in light of the current SP trend versus growth in the non-daigou Chinese channels and growth in the US market share. ATM have a very small share of some very large markets. And if this shake-up results in a move away from and/or less reliance on daigou, then ATM will come out of this a better business. Daigou channels don't sit well with me from the perspective of sustainable business.

Interesting call mate. In my experience you seldom come out smelling like roses when trying to pick bottom's ;) Safer way is to wait for others to try and pick the bottom and buy on a new confirmed uptrend, (whenever that might be). A good much lower risk strategy might be to wait and wait until there's a break up through the 30 day moving average and put on a half sized position and then the other half when a new uptrend is confirmed by a break up through the 100 day MA. At the moment I cannot foresee what could possibly be the near term catalyst for the steep decline rate to change ? The trend is definitely not your friend at present !

[bull....]

Expecting a green day today.

something smells fishy , its been down everyday just about

[JohnnyTheHorse]

something smells fishy , its been down everyday just about

Shorts are decreasing too so should in theory be supporting the price. 4 weeks of pretty much going down every day with not even a small bounce... you don't see this very often.

[Balance]

Shorts are decreasing too so should in theory be supporting the price. 4 weeks of pretty much going down every day with not even a small bounce... you don't see this very often.

But for the short coverings, sp would be below A$7.50 support point.

[Ferg]

Interesting call mate. In my experience you seldom come out smelling like roses when trying to pick bottom's ;) Safer way is to wait for others to try and pick the bottom and buy on a new confirmed uptrend, (whenever that might be). A good much lower risk strategy might be to wait and wait until there's a break up through the 30 day moving average and put on a half sized position and then the other half when a new uptrend is confirmed by a break up through the 100 day MA. At the moment I cannot foresee what could possibly be the near term catalyst for the steep decline rate to change ? The trend is definitely not your friend at present !

Hey Beagle. Appreciate your thoughts. Buying on the counter cycle has mostly worked for me locally and on the US market - sometimes it comes down to how long one is prepared to wait or cutting losses if it doesn't go to plan. I have also stated in another post elsewhere I have the reverse Midas touch so I'm more than used to being under on an investment initially, while I wait for the market and my views to align, either good or bad. 100% understood about trends and the risks, and if it turns out I am incorrect then I have no-one to blame but myself and I will own that. For context, I bought a number of stocks against the trend in 2020 including HLG, on which I was down for a couple of months. Winner questioned whether HLG had yet turned a corner on fundamentals based on available stats, but my stated view at that time was it had been over-sold. What I have observed is that once a stock turns (either way) it turns too fast to react in a meaningful way, at which point one is back to buying (or selling) on a trend which isn't really my thing. I prefer to sniff out value in the belief something is over-sold. I use a combination of fundamentals and an assumption stocks prices move irrationally due to fear and greed. I don't normally post my positions until some months after I have taken action and I kind of regret making that earlier post - but it's out there now. ATM is just a toe in the water at this point, so.....watch this space!
:)

[Waltzing]

One foot wrong from the queen bee and her workers and NZ will gets it turn in the ring.

Its just too high a risk and has been for a while.

Aussi wine makers still being hammered.

[bottomfeeder]

NTA backing just too low for a company with a premium product. It amazing just how fast a premium product becomes a non premium product, when everyone starts getting on the bandwagon. It's like a pyramid scheme. Those that got in early reaped the rewards. Now the risk comes in. You are betting that supply and demand are going to remain in your favor.