ATM - A2 Milk Corporation Limited

[Rawz]

SP trend is very sick indeed. Pretty scary actually. Makes one wonder if they dont buy at their target price that is fast approaching.

[bull....]

nice solid down trend happening. fundmentals still a tad expensive but improving. notice other infant stocks like bubs are at new lows as well. but feihei is still near all time highs. just proves the point made many times china home grown is in vogue

[Rawz]

...

Now trading at below 52 week low

Every week (or day..) there is a new 52 week low :(

[silu]

Every week (or day..) there is a new 52 week low :(

Duh! I totally got my numbers messed up and thought it was a year ago that they last traded at those numbers. My mind is totally somewhere else today.

[Lease]

Someone pointed out to me that Chinese label stage 3 IF was selling for over 430 RMB at the beginning of the month.

Looks like discounting taking effect across the whole A2 range.

I sense that some posters here are mesmerized by ATM's #1 position in the IF sales stake (which is great) but missing the margin erosion as a result of the discounting.

Just checked, today Chinese label stage 3 IF is 428RMB. 12462

I don't check it everyday. A few days ago was 380 RMB, today is 428 RMB.

[Balance]

nice solid down trend happening. fundmentals still a tad expensive but improving. notice other infant stocks like bubs are at new lows as well. but feihei is still near all time highs. just proves the point made many times china home grown is in vogue

A bullet to the skulls of offenders who muck around with baby formula and harm babies - matter of time before such drastic action restores confidence to domestic players.

There is still a large middle class in China of course who will buy overseas brands - that will always be there. Question of market share vs domestic brands. Those who were disdainful of domestic brands are now reaping the losses.

[Balance]

Just checked, today Chinese label stage 3 IF is 428RMB. 12462

I don't check it everyday. A few days ago was 380 RMB, today is 428 RMB.

I do not read Chinese - what’s the 358 RMB & 344 RMB showing in the narrative?

[Lease]

I do not read Chinese - what’s the 358 RMB & 344 RMB showing in the narrative?

These are conditional prices. Normal price today is 428 RMB.

BTW, I read Chinese:)

[Getty]

Wheres the old recidivist gone?

It hasnt said banned beside his name for several days, but he's yet to emerge from his kennel.

I miss him sinking his teeth into the forums.

[Balance]

These are conditional prices. Normal price today is 428 RMB.

BTW, I read Chinese:)

Thx, I gathered you do which is why I asked.

Conditional prices as in?

[Lease]

Thx, I gathered you do which is why I asked.

Conditional prices as in?

358 RMB you need to get sufficient points from this shop. 344 RMB is only for new member of this shop and for first day only.

[Blue Skies]

You have to wonder if this is going to eventually bounce strongly. Despite offices in both NZ & Aust, it's primarily a NZ company with (as I understand it) key decisions being made in NZ & all the IF still sourced out of good ol' clean green, grass fed cows, GMO free, independent foreign policy NZ, with a key state owned Chinese business partner and delivering ( temp' interrupted) an excellent source of easily absorbed safe protein & nutrients in a (future) rapidly growing protein hungry world.
Hard to muck that up long term no matter how badly managed.

Disc. token holding but looking to buy a few more if it gets much lower.

[flyinglizard]

358 RMB you need to get sufficient points from this shop. 344 RMB is only for new member of this shop and for first day only.

Lease, hands off this one. Prob it will reach as low as $3.50 price range.

[winner69]

Bad enough talking about 358 but jeez 344 is about 50% of today's share price

Up your expectations please ...even Balance is talking $5.xx

[bull....]

dmi telling us its a very strong down trend , last gasp support on the charts being tested then $2 was last zone

[silu]

Bad enough talking about 358 but jeez 344 is about 50% of today's share price

Up your expectations please ...even Balance is talking $5.xx

I think you got some things mixed up.

[Lease]

Bad enough talking about 358 but jeez 344 is about 50% of today's share price

Up your expectations please ...even Balance is talking $5.xx

Looks most people think A2M will go to die:), as per SP performance indicated.

[alokdhir]

Only a takeover bid talk can save ATM in the short term ...:p

[silu]

Only a takeover bid talk can save ATM in the short term ...:p

Even then what would be the premium to current price? If they'd pay 30% more than current SP it would be still below $10.

[Lease]

Even then what would be the premium to current price? If they'd pay 30% more than current SP it would be still below $10.

Certainly reject such bid.

[dobby41]

"Surely it can't go any lower"

why not ?

[JohnnyTheHorse]

why not ?

Said very tongue in cheek. Things can fall a lot further than you think possible!

A picture of the 12 month chart with some quotes from this thread would be pretty cool.

[carrom74]

The CEO must be thinking—“did I make the right move”??? . He has got some serious challenges and this deafening silence is more intriguing than surprising to me.

[Balance]

The CEO must be thinking—“did I make the right move”??? . He has got some serious challenges and this deafening silence is more intriguing than surprising to me.

No skin off his nose - the lower the sp, the better for his options strike price!

So all in good time - CEO will make his announcement when he is well and truly ready.

Meanwhile, his silence must certainly be spooking the analysts & brokers who cover the stock if he is on a vow of silence until he is ready - they usually do updates and get the company to comment on the factual aspects of their updates.

[Rawz]

The longer the CEO stays silent the more certain there will be a 4th downgrade :/

[Biscuit]

We are now on a PE ratio of around 20 and dropping. It's being priced now as a no-growth company that might see a bit of a bounce in profit once covid relents. How realistic a valuation is this? I reckon that is an overly pessimistic share price and an overly pessimistic view of the company's ability to adjust and come back from these set-backs.

[flyinglizard]

The fundamental is changing. ATM matured to a stable company. at $3.50 price range. PE is around 10, PB is around 2.3. Div is zero maybe. If PE(2021) decreases, the ratios look worse.

Single product needs new market to keep high growth rate. Unfortunately, A2 failed to develop new market, such as Vietnam. Or develop product differentiation strategy. However, cannot see any new products coming into the market.

Its competitor, Fonterra seems to have a good year.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/124929884/fonterra-revamps-guangzhou-centre-to-stoke-growth-in-its-fastgrowing-foodservice-business-in-china

[Balance]

We are now on a PE ratio of around 20 and dropping. It's being priced now as a no-growth company that might see a bit of a bounce in profit once covid relents. How realistic a valuation is this? I reckon that is an overly pessimistic share price and an overly pessimistic view of the company's ability to adjust and come back from these set-backs.

Market is pricing in a profit downgrade so PE will be much higher than 20.

Word in the industry for this - PE contraction.

[winner69]

Goes to show how mediocre ATM management turned out to be ... Just took one downtrend or difficult time to expose their inabilities fully ...

Yes ..but many on here a year ago were saying A2 were covid proof and wouldn’t be affected too much.

[winner69]

Fractal charts are cool per se .... but this one is rather sad

Long staircase down

[Rawz]

Market Screener has 9 analyst's forecasting income as:

2021 $231m
2022 $277m
2023 $343m

Gives forward P/Es of:

2021 23.95
2021 19.97
2021 16.13

Based on current SP of $7.45.

If market puts them on a forward P/E of 15 we are looking at a SP of $4.66 today and a target 2022 price of $5.59 :mellow:

[Biscuit]

Market is pricing in a profit downgrade so PE will be much higher than 20.

Word in the industry for this - PE contraction.


Yes, we are seeing PE contraction as investors re-evaluate whether or not ATM is still a growth company. Certainly not currently a growth company. There are credible, rational arguments that the company growth is going to hit more and more headwinds as competition increases. However, there is as yet no actual evidence of anything other than a one-off hit to sales due to the covid hit to their main channel into China. Everything else is speculation.

[Lease]

Yes, we are seeing PE contraction as investors re-evaluate whether or not ATM is still a growth company. Certainly not currently a growth company. There are credible, rational arguments that the company growth is going to hit more and more headwinds as competition increases. However, there is as yet no actual evidence of anything other than a one-off hit to sales due to the covid hit to their main channel into China. Everything else is speculation.

That's the most rational comment I have seen.

[Habits]

"Fetch comes into NZ and it will be sayonara to sky tv's share price!"

Balance sorry to remind you of this however you made this very pertinent comment #1011 re Skytv in March 2018, forecasting the effect that competition might have on the SP. At that time Sky was trading above $2.20 per share and as you know it is now below 18 cents. I just thought there might be a parallel with what is happening to ATM and the greater level of competition

[Cyclical]

"Fetch comes into NZ and it will be sayonara to sky tv's share price!"

Balance sorry to remind you of this however you made this very pertinent comment #1011 re Skytv in March 2018, forecasting the effect that competition might have on the SP. At that time Sky was trading above $2.20 per share and as you know it is now below 18 cents. I just thought there might be a parallel with what is happening to ATM and the greater level of competition

Ooh, that hurts!

[Biscuit]

"Fetch comes into NZ and it will be sayonara to sky tv's share price!"

Balance sorry to remind you of this however you made this very pertinent comment #1011 re Skytv in March 2018, forecasting the effect that competition might have on the SP. At that time Sky was trading above $2.20 per share and as you know it is now below 18 cents. I just thought there might be a parallel with what is happening to ATM and the greater level of competition

Not really a parallel between Sky ant ATM. Sky wasn't "killed" by other companies selling satellite TV. It was knocked off its perch by changes in technology.

[winner69]

In NZ Herald ...ATM might fall out of a big MSCI index -


The MSCI index is being rebalanced in May and data is currently being collected over the last 10 trading days of April. Stocks are added or removed by analysts to ensure that the index still acts as an effective equity benchmark for the market it represents.

"If a2 Milk falls out of the index – we don't know yet – then passive fund managers who track the index will have to sell," said Dan Stratful, investment adviser with Forsyth Barr. "There may be more selling in a2 as investors like to get ahead of the curve. It's a bit of a worry for a2 Milk."

[Balance]

In NZ Herald ...ATM might fall out of a big MSCI index -


The MSCI index is being rebalanced in May and data is currently being collected over the last 10 trading days of April. Stocks are added or removed by analysts to ensure that the index still acts as an effective equity benchmark for the market it represents.

"If a2 Milk falls out of the index – we don't know yet – then passive fund managers who track the index will have to sell," said Dan Stratful, investment adviser with Forsyth Barr. "There may be more selling in a2 as investors like to get ahead of the curve. It's a bit of a worry for a2 Milk."

Explains the big falls in the last 2 days.

And unfortunately could be self fulfilling as the falls reduce ATM’s market cap.

[Habits]

Explains the big falls in the last 2 days.

And unfortunately could be self fulfilling as the falls reduce ATM’s market cap.

To be replaced by HLG eh Balance :p

[Balance]

To be replaced by HLG eh Balance :p

Haha ... if only!

[winner69]

That Herald article mentioned this as well -

There were further challenges for a2 Milk. Its Australian competitor Nuchev, which produces goat milk, has just reported a slight decrease in its third-quarter revenue, with a fall in orders through the daigou channel.

The bloody daigou channel still stuffed by the sounds of it

[aperitif]

No wonder DB is quiet, he receives $3,700,000 worth of ordinary shares based over a 90 day VWAP from his commencement date. Does that mean the rort will be over in May haha!?!

90 day VWAP - $8.91 AUD as of today.

[Blue Skies]

That Herald article mentioned this as well -

There were further challenges for a2 Milk. Its Australian competitor Nuchev, which produces goat milk, has just reported a slight decrease in its third-quarter revenue, with a fall in orders through the daigou channel.

The bloody daigou channel still stuffed by the sounds of it


Its not just A2 feeling the loss of Chinese students (& daigau channel) in Australian. Aust' universities could lose billions over next 3 years if travel restrictions remain.
Aust govt will be trying to get those students back as quickly as possible & with vaccine being rolled out, those restrictions may soon be unnecessary.
Aust govt & A2 interests aligned.

On idea of vaccination passport, reminded there's already lots of countries which require diff' vaccinations for entry e.g. need typhoid, hepatitis polio, tetanus meningitis etc for many countries

[Lease]

Anyone remembers Aussie BAL? its sp reached to $15 in 2016, but crashed to less than $4 in early 2017 due to China sales shrinking. But the SP rebound to over $20 in April 2018, and eventually it was taken over.

Similar story should happen to A2.

[aperitif]

Danone investor transcripts this month, issues aren’t exclusive to a2.

124641246512466

[Snow Leopard]

It is a terribly sad sight the A2 Milk share price trend, to scary to show here.

I make no predictions as to where the bottom will be. Last time I tried that I got it wrong and it cost me several tins of tuna.

But I watch it with the same fascination as I do a volcanic eruption (https://youtu.be/I1I-0PUhFmU).

One day it will end.

[winner69]

Explains the big falls in the last 2 days.

And unfortunately could be self fulfilling as the falls reduce ATM’s market cap.

Seems that instos have as much excessive stock to quit as A2 have - stock clearance sales for both

[bull....]

might be a lot lower , rumours a2 might be removed from some world indices. prompt more selling if it happens and combined with likely further downgrade .... horrible outlook

[alokdhir]

Seems that instos have as much excessive stock to quit as A2 have - stock clearance sales for both

Sale in MEL didn't happen but in ATM very possible ...$ 5 !!!!

[Biscuit]

Sale in MEL didn't happen but in ATM very possible ...$ 5 !!!!


Well, on current information, I would certainly be buying at $5.

[Balance]

Sale in MEL didn't happen but in ATM very possible ...$ 5 !!!!

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/nerves-on-edge-in-meat-export-industry-as-new-china-audits-spread-from-seafood-to-apples/FMQF3XDIA3AIKYLXMHRQ4WD7FI/

paywalled

"New Zealand's $9 billion meat export industry says it's nervous about China's new "live" food safety audits as apple exporters now come in for the same treatment that led to a still-unresolved halt on seafood exports."

From seafood to apples to now meat - China is applying the audit screws.

Dairy next?

Let’s hope NZ government continues to stay on the right side of trade by practising quiet diplomacy rather than the overt lapdog Aussie approach against China.

[Sampan]

It is a terribly sad sight the A2 Milk share price trend, to scary to show here.

I make no predictions as to where the bottom will be. Last time I tried that I got it wrong and it cost me several tins of tuna.

But I watch it with the same fascination as I do a volcanic eruption (https://youtu.be/I1I-0PUhFmU).

One day it will end.

I dont think we are far from the lows here. Its still a company with a tremendous amount of goodwill, a global brand with very good margins (yes yes, I realise margin is nothing if turnover is through the floor). The foreign students are going to be back in Aussie soon opening daigou opportunities, ATM will NOT fall out of the MSCI basket and at current SP, there will be plenty of suitors having a look.

[bull....]

broken support level 7.50 well and truely today

[JohnnyTheHorse]

broken support level 7.50 well and truely today

Looks like NZX short term capitulation to me. I'm scouting entry for short term bounce.

[Ogg]

Comvita share price superimposed over A2 Milk...

https://i.imgur.com/Zo6QLnS.jpg

https://i.imgur.com/iMBfbPZ.gif

[hesiod]

Dairy audits underway - I know of 2 in flight with small adverse reporting resolution windows.

[see weed]

Looks like NZX short term capitulation to me. I'm scouting entry for short term bounce.
I thought the same from 2 weeks ago and have sold the last of them on open this morning at a $15,894 loss. But my 50c shares are still in the green 132k and am not selling those:cool:.

[JohnnyTheHorse]

I thought the same from 2 weeks ago and have sold the last of them on open this morning at a $15,894 loss. But my 50c shares are still in the green 132k and am not selling those:cool:.

By short term I mean very short term. I've already bought and sold :)

[Biscuit]

Looks like NZX short term capitulation to me. I'm scouting entry for short term bounce.

There's your short term bounce now, might be a good idea to sell back into it?

[bull....]

By short term I mean very short term. I've already bought and sold :)

good trade , gap open down and the rally to close the gap from yesterday.

[see weed]

By short term I mean very short term. I've already bought and sold :)
lol, you probably bought the lot I sold. Question... Can you sell shares if you bought them the same day. And do those shares have to be registered with Link Market Services before you sell.

[Getty]

Yes, & no.
Not sure about Sharsies tho.

[JohnnyTheHorse]

lol, you probably bought the lot I sold. Question... Can you sell shares if you bought them the same day. And do those shares have to be registered with Link Market Services before you sell.

No problem buying and selling the same day. Essentially never hits the registry.

[aperitif]

This is going to get bumped out of indexes creating more selling pressure. Would be a great time to delist in Aus/NZ and play with the big boys in HK/US. Reduce currency risk too as most of their dealings are in USD I’d imagine.

[Blue Skies]

Busy A2 thread seemed to run out of puff this afternoon.
With reversal of usual trend of being up in morning & down after ASX opens, perhaps everyone holding their breath wondering if finally bottomed out and time to go bargain hunting?

[Rawz]

ATM held up extremely well today. If it holds $7aus its a very encouraging sign and you could see people start to pile in.

[Balance]

Busy A2 thread seemed to run out of puff this afternoon.
With reversal of usual trend of being up in morning & down after ASX opens, perhaps everyone holding their breath wondering if finally bottomed out and time to go bargain hunting?

Like the ‘bargain hunting’ around $10?

[Cyclical]

lol, you probably bought the lot I sold. Question... Can you sell shares if you bought them the same day. And do those shares have to be registered with Link Market Services before you sell.


Yes, & no.
Not sure about Sharsies tho.

Yeah, no issue buying and selling with Sharesies within minutes. The downside with them though, unless it's changed (it's been some months since I was day trading with them) is that you can only have two orders on the one stock, and they both need to be buy or sell, not the combination. One little bonus is that a sale results in the cash appearing in your wallet within about half an hour too.

[Cyclical]

lol, you probably bought the lot I sold. Question... Can you sell shares if you bought them the same day. And do those shares have to be registered with Link Market Services before you sell.


Like the ‘bargain hunting’ around $10?
Indeed. This falling knife has been cutting me up since last year's highs...staying away until the milk's stopped spilling.

[alokdhir]

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/124974859/adviser-who-once-had-75-of-portfolio-in-a2-i-still-have-confidence

Early morning cheers for the holders ...at least someone is positive ...:D

[winner69]

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/124974859/adviser-who-once-had-75-of-portfolio-in-a2-i-still-have-confidence

Early morning cheers for the holders ...at least someone is positive ...:D

Bean pretty clever though ..no wonder he’s still plosives

Bean said he had sold 40 per cent of his A2 holdings in line with his strategy to obtain the best price at peak market times and reallocate across client portfolios, and also bought the stock back again from time to time. He sold 20 per cent of his A2 holding at $20.09 and bought back in again around the $8 mark, he said. A2 still featured prominently in his client portfolios, he said.

[alokdhir]

Bean pretty clever though ..no wonder he’s still plosives

Bean said he had sold 40 per cent of his A2 holdings in line with his strategy to obtain the best price at peak market times and reallocate across client portfolios, and also bought the stock back again from time to time. He sold 20 per cent of his A2 holding at $20.09 and bought back in again around the $8 mark, he said. A2 still featured prominently in his client portfolios, he said.

Stock which moves so much is better for trading ...not for buy and hold strategy ...Also he says what goes down fast can come up fast ...working other way at the moment ...went up too fast so coming down fast !!

[Leftfield]

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/124974859/adviser-who-once-had-75-of-portfolio-in-a2-i-still-have-confidence

Early morning cheers for the holders ...at least someone is positive ...:D

FWIW pretty much my ATM story also, 70% in my case to 20% now.....but appreciate not all posters so fortunate so don't post much on this thread anymore.

When the market appreciates the upside potential outweighs the downside risk there will be plenty of buying and DCA opportunities.

[sb9]

FWIW pretty much my ATM story also, 70% in my case to 20% now.....but appreciate not all posters so fortunate so don't post much on this thread anymore.

When the market appreciates the upside potential outweighs the downside risk there will be plenty of buying and DCA opportunities.

I still have all of my original holdings that got around 58c mark but have been trading small parcels along way over past 5 years or so to recover my initial investment, so that all my current holdings are sort of free carry. Got another parcel other day for medium term hold and may buy few more along forthcoming dips.

My view is that they're far from finished and this is a great opportunity to get the long term strategy right. It'll take time but not without few bumps along the way of which current one is major predicament.

I'll say it again, "ITS TIME FOR CHAIR Mr HEARN TO MOVE ASIDE"

[JohnnyTheHorse]

Now looking for the break of AU$7.10 to signify an hourly trend change and see a bounce on the daily from these oversold conditions. Would just be looking for a daily lower high though.

[HKG2301]

ATM held up extremely well today. If it holds $7aus its a very encouraging sign and you could see people start to pile in.

I know I did! Scooped some up at $7.08 - can't hurt to add here for the long term. ATM now 20% of my NZX portfolio.

Not seen anyone address the 'takeover target' subject for a while. Got to be a possibility at these levels, surely?

[alokdhir]

It seems something positive is brewing at ATM ....Aussy punters have become positive on the stock after a very long while ...They always know better as more involved and with higher stakes ....

Its started looking more positive after low of around 7.06 ....

Lets see how long it lasts and it needs to cross 8.26 as first hurdle

[Blue Skies]

It seems something positive is brewing at ATM ....Aussy punters have become positive on the stock after a very long while ...They always know better as more involved and with higher stakes ....

Its started looking more positive after low of around 7.06 ....

Lets see how long it lasts and it needs to cross 8.26 as first hurdle




Could have something to do with Victoria & NSW proposing to get international student arrivals moving again shortly with special charter flights and quarantine facilities.

[HKG2301]

It seems something positive is brewing at ATM ....Aussy punters have become positive on the stock after a very long while ...They always know better as more involved and with higher stakes ....

Its started looking more positive after low of around 7.06 ....

Lets see how long it lasts and it needs to cross 8.26 as first hurdle


Yeah, early days, but I'd say it needs to break through the AUD 7.70 level first. Previous support = resistance and that's approx the 20-day SMA.

It's a way's to go but once this avalanche of poor sentiment subsides...

[Lease]

I know I did! Scooped some up at $7.08 - can't hurt to add here for the long term. ATM now 20% of my NZX portfolio.

Not seen anyone address the 'takeover target' subject for a while. Got to be a possibility at these levels, surely?

Still have $5.6B market cap. Not easy to be a 'takeover target'.

[winner69]

Still have $5.6B market cap. Not easy to be a 'takeover target'.

But seeing it’s going to be worth $20 billion in a few years time some will be very interested.

[HKG2301]

Still have $5.6B market cap. Not easy to be a 'takeover target'.

Snap it up when it's going 'cheap'! :laugh:

[alokdhir]

Still have $5.6B market cap. Not easy to be a 'takeover target'.

Out of $ 5.6B u get $ 1.5B cash in bank also ...:p

[steveb]

surely shareholders who have paid $20+ a share would not want to sell at say a $10 a share takeover bid,similarly shareholders who bought at below a $1 for their shares and did not sell when the price was over $20+ would not want to sell now.So at what price would a takeover bid work?

[HKG2301]

Out of $ 5.6B u get $ 1.5B cash in bank also ...:p

Which reminds me, if not now - under new MD & CEO - when should we expect to see a dividend?

That amount of cash makes the company an even juicier takeover target, so best invest it quickly in growth, buy back shares or start paying a dividend. Frankly, I don't care which!

Over to you, Mr Bortolussi...

[Sideshow Bob]

Which reminds me, if not now - under new MD & CEO - when should we expect to see a dividend?

That amount of cash makes the company an even juicier takeover target, so best invest it quickly in growth, buy back shares or start paying a dividend. Frankly, I don't care which!

Over to you, Mr Bortolussi...

Would be a board decision, not necessarily management. Having said that, think the board would be keen to do something to support the share price.

I’m also keen for a chair refresh....

[carrom74]

Would be a board decision, not necessarily management. Having said that, think the board would be keen to do something to support the share price.

I’m also keen for a chair refresh....

The new CEO is part of the board( not like Jayne) . So his opinions would be heard … I guess more loudly .

https://thea2milkcompany.com/corporate-governance

[Dassets]

Interesting. Normally a move to dividends for this sort of company and previous investment case means it is moving from growth to dividend. That can see a big change in shareholder type. ATM prob still has growth assumers in there. But in this case I would argue the price move has already occurred. Question is what can it pay? That will define its value as a divvy payer. If growth does come back, as a director, I would use debt on the balance sheet to support that FWIW.

[X-men]

Expecting no students n tourists anytime soon. Daigou channels will remain suppressed.

https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/value-of-australian-wine-exports-to-china-falls-96-per-cent-20210429-p57ngx.html

Cheng said on Thursday that racial discrimination driven by the current geopolitical tension would make Chinese students and tourists question whether they wanted to travel to Australia.

“My question is whether there will be a friendly environment for their return,” he said.

Treasurer Josh Frydenberg said the government would maintain its national security positions and speak out on human rights abuses. He said Australia’s largest export, iron ore, worth $80 billion a year, remained resilient to trade threats.

[Balance]

Out of $ 5.6B u get $ 1.5B cash in bank also ...:p

Where did you get the $1.5 billion cash from?

Cash looks like it will be down to around $400m on 30 June 2021 based on $775m as at 31 Dec 2020 and dropping due to negative cashflow, with $268m to go out for MVM acquisition in May.

[Balance]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/stock-takes-how-covid-19-is-taking-nz-stocks-in-different-directions/UU3LRXMD2Q2I6CNGFM5CRFAK3A/

paywalled

Must be getting close to capitulation when just about every broker & institution cannot see much upside for ATM :

"Australian brokerage Morgans said e-commerce pricing of infant formula in China does not appear to be materially improving and Australian stores are discounting products to clear ageing inventory."

"On the macro front, our analysis highlights the China infant formula market - mostly due to declining birth rates - has shifted from a growth industry into volume decline," Jarden said in a research note.

"Whilst not new, when coupled with Covid disruption to cross-border trade and stronger competition, these prior macro tailwinds have turned to headwinds, raising the execution risk of a2 Milk returning to its previous strong growth story," Jarden said.

[Balance]

On a brighter note, there is more takeover talk :

"With a market capitalisation of $5.6b, down from $16b at its peak last July, a2 Milk is a mere shadow of its former self, prompting speculation in the Aussie media that it may become a takeover target for food groups wanting a share of the market for milk products free of the a1 beta-casein, which is what a2 sells."

https://www.theaustralian.com.au/subscribe/news/1/?sourceCode=TAWEB_WRE170_a_GGL&dest=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.theaustralian.com.au%2Fbusi ness%2Fdataroom%2Fa2-milk-back-on-takeover-radar-as-it-struggles-with-loss-of-daigou-trade%2Fnews-story%2F3d94be4ece0c41892375aa804112540d&memtype=anonymous&mode=premium

With A2 Milk shares stuck firmly in the doldrums, market chatter suggests the battered dairy supplier could be back on the radar of potential suitor.

[aperitif]

Positive signs coming out of BUB’s 3Q today.

Port data out of Lyttelton yesterday on track ~50% yoy growth


https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02369191-6A1030784?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a 39ff4

[sb9]

Positive signs coming out of BUB’s 3Q today.

Port data out of Lyttelton yesterday on track ~50% yoy growth


https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02369191-6A1030784?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a 39ff4

Bang on, just read BUB's quarterly report and things definitely seem to be on right track. ASX will as per usual drive sentiment later on.

[Balance]

Positive signs coming out of BUB’s 3Q today.

Port data out of Lyttelton yesterday on track ~50% yoy growth


https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02369191-6A1030784?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a 39ff4

Am I reading this right :

BUB Q3 2020 sales were $19.7m, now $11.8m = 40% decline.

Commentary seems similar to Q2 update in Jan which led to a spike in the sp to be aggressively sold down by institutions in the stock, leading to even lower sp in April.

[winner69]

Am I reading this right :

BUB Q3 2020 sales were $19.7m, now $11.8m = 40% decline.

Commentary seems similar to Q2 update in Jan which led to a spike in the sp to be aggressively sold down by institutions in the stock, leading to even lower sp in April.

QoQ reporting always way to go eh Balance .....seasonally adjusted revenues up 75% I think ;)

Commentary also mentions daigou channel down 15% on last year ...but not as bad as previous quarter

[Balance]

QoQ reporting always way to go eh Balance .....seasonally adjusted revenues up 75% I think ;)

Commentary also mentions daigou channel down 15% on last year ...but not as bad as previous quarter

Whichever comparison makes the numbers look better, use accordingly - be it pcp or previous quarter!

Been around too long not to see the inconsistency in results reporting.

Heck, go back far enough and we had Fay Richwhite changing their balance dates ever so often, and their valuation of investments from cost to market value or back to cost whichever suited!

[Ruby]

Whichever comparison makes the numbers look better, use accordingly - be it pcp or previous quarter!

Been around too long not to see the inconsistency in results reporting.

Heck, go back far enough and we had Fay Richwhite changing their balance dates ever so often, and their valuation of investments from cost to market value or back to cost whichever suited!

Heck,comparing numbers to suit to make it look worse happens as well aye,depending on what side of the fence you are on :t_up:

[Balance]

Heck,comparing numbers to suit to make it look worse happens as well aye,depending on what side of the fence you are on :t_up:

Does not really matter in the end what companies do to try & dress up numbers - only the amateurs (like some posters here) are fooled. The institutions see through all that dressing up & are most happy to take advantage of the window given by the companies & the amateurs to finesse their shareholding positions accordingly.

With ATM, it has been like that for the last 3 downgrades with the amateurs lapping the company’s ‘positive’ spin up while the smart investors sold to them.

Or have you not noticed, Ruby?

[Ruby]

Does not really matter in the end what companies do to try & dress up numbers - only the amateurs (like some posters here) are fooled. The institutions see through all that dressing up & are most happy to take advantage of the window given by the companies & the amateurs to finesse their shareholding positions accordingly.

With ATM, it has been like that for the last 3 downgrades with the amateurs lapping the company’s ‘positive’ spin up while the smart investors sold to them.

Or have you not noticed, Ruby?
What i have noticed you always like to get a dig in...you won't be happy until ATM goes to a dollar so you can say I told you so to Couta lol...

[Balance]

What i have noticed you always like to get a dig in...you won't be happy until ATM goes to a dollar so you can say I told you so to Couta lol...

Not at all - I post both positive & negatives on ATM. Just so that there has been very little positives with ATM since the first downgrade in Sept 2020.

Or have you again not noticed, Ruby?

Also, I have had no debate or issue with Couta - are you insinuating something?

[Ruby]

Not at all - I post both positive & negatives on ATM. Just so that there has been very little positives with ATM since the first downgrade in Sept 2020.

Or have you again not noticed, Ruby?

Also, I have had no debate or issue with Couta - are you insinuating something?
If you say so :D

[Balance]

If you say so :D

I do say so.

And I also say that there are one too many posters here who I will classify as ‘desperate to believe’ which is why they completely missed the ramifications of the 2nd & 3rd downgrades.

[Ruby]

I do say so.

And I also say that there are one too many posters here who I will classify as ‘desperate to believe’ which is why they completely missed the ramifications of the 2nd & 3rd downgrades.
If you say so :D

[Balance]

If you say so :D

I do say so indeed.

And this 'I told you so' is especially for you - have a look at your 'wait to see' until the company reports when it was so obvious the 3rd downgrade was going to happen.

Investing is about assessing all the available information out there and then taking pro-active action, not wait for the company to report and inform you all the time.


As I said,I'll wait a couple of days to see what is said...I don't profess to know what will be said,guns blazing or otherwise.

I LOVE IT!

[Ruby]

I do say so indeed.

And this 'I told you so' is especially for you - have a look at your 'wait to see' until the company reports when it was so obvious the 3rd downgrade was going to happen.

Investing is about assessing all the available information out there and then taking pro-active action, not wait for the company to report and inform you all the time.



I LOVE IT!
You do put a lot of effort in to be condescending and put people down ...you are a champ :D

[winner69]

I do say so indeed.

And this 'I told you so' is especially for you - have a look at your 'wait to see' until the company reports when it was so obvious the 3rd downgrade was going to happen.

Investing is about assessing all the available information out there and then taking pro-active action, not wait for the company to report and inform you all the time.



I LOVE IT!

Hey balance ...you forgot the smiley

[Balance]

Hey balance ...you forgot the smiley

Don't want to hurt his self-induced sensitivities anymore than he already has - note he already put the smiley on his postings himself?

[Balance]

https://www.fool.com.au/2021/04/28/will-2021-go-down-as-the-year-a2-and-other-milk-share-prices-turned-sour/

2021 when milk share prices all turned sour?

[Ruby]

Don't want to hurt his self-induced sensitivities anymore than he already has - note he already put the smiley on his postings himself?
I know you love emojis...you sure have thin skin for a big fish in the small pond that is ST Forum... :D

[Biscuit]

...you sure have thin skin for a big fish ....

Little known fact; fish skin is particularly thin (and its thickness is not necessarily related to the size of the fish). You can turn it into light, waterproof leather. Used to be very fashionable among the indigenous people of the world prior to colonialisation.

[Ruby]

A stark reminder as to why people should think before they attack people online and put them down when you don't know what is going on...you wouldn't want to be the one who pushes someone over the edge for the sake of "being right"

https://nypost.com/2021/04/27/charles-de-vaulxs-apparent-suicide-rattles-wall-street/

[Habits]

I have been following the debate... ruby made an attack throwing mud and misinformed comment... follows up reminding everyone to be nice. Classic

[Ruby]

I have been following the debate... ruby made an attack throwing mud and misinformed comment... follows up reminding everyone to be nice. Classic

Note: my first comment, throwing mud?

"Heck,comparing numbers to suit to make it look worse happens as well aye,depending on what side of the fence you are on"

[Comyn]

Nah, you don't get to tell who writes what or shouldn't write on online forums. Go to the safe space forum if you can't handle what you read. I've lost on ATM but I'm not offended by any of these online comments. Back to ATM, I do see that Chinese version of a2 milk seems popular but I'm always told here in SE Asia parents wouldn't want that product as they still don't trust the quality.

[Rawz]

This thread always seems to turn into a dogs breakfast. Almost without fail.

We need the company to make an announcement so something relevant can be chewed over.

[Ruby]

It always livens up when ya throw the 'big dog' a bone lol...

[winner69]

Could be given heave ho from ASX50 at this rate of decline

[winner69]

No doubt the slowing growth has played a part in the 'rerating' (lower PE) of ATM but I think there ambitions around Mataura are compounding the issues.

The more they invest in 'processing' the more they will be seen as such rather than a growth marketing company.

Overall returns (on capital etc) will result - generally lower PEs

[Habits]

The only aspect of ATM which is increasing is the number of comments pages, heading up on volume.

Disc: I bought in after being insprired by ST but quickly realised the potential for risk before downgrade 3 and sold out without loss. Very relieved

[Balance]

Could be given heave ho from ASX50 at this rate of decline

Market cap now behind MFT, FBU & CEN so a distinct possibility comes May on MSCI.

Take out Plested 16% in MFT and it's a toss up whether it's FBU or MFT which will replace ATM.

Remember how FBU fell like a stone leading to and when it was kicked out of the MSCI?

[Lease]

Market cap now behind MFT, FBU & CEN so a distinct possibility comes May on MSCI.

Take out Plested 16% in MFT and it's a toss up whether it's FBU or MFT which will replace ATM.

Remember how FBU fell like a stone leading to and when it was kicked out of the MSCI?

But you made decent return on FBU, right? So it doesn't matter whether ATM will be kicked out of MSCI. The matter is whether it can restore lost revenue and earnings.

[tommy_d]

I have been following the debate... ruby made an attack throwing mud and misinformed comment... follows up reminding everyone to be nice. Classic

^ 100%.

Might be like me, down a bit on A2M due to making some bad decisions snatching the A2M falling knife while ignoring the advice of informed posters in this thread.
Ruby linking to a suicide article is in really bad taste, implying that criticism of Ruby's posts might result in Ruby's suicide - surprised that doesn't result in a forum ban, it disgusts me.

[Balance]

But you made decent return on FBU, right? So it doesn't matter whether ATM will be kicked out of MSCI. The matter is whether it can restore lost revenue and earnings.

It matters for a few reasons:

1. Normally will lead to price weakness which means best to avoid until said event (ie. kick out of MSCI). Presents investment opportunity - refer 2 however.

2. Being in the MSCI means that there's ongoing buying support for the stock - as global FUM grows, some of those funds will flow into the stock.

3. Brokers and analysts have to cover stocks included in the big cap MSCI - providing valuable insights into how the company and the industry it is in are doing.

As I have posted before, the reason why I bought FBU is that the company has been around for decades and has a solid fundamental oligopolistic NZ earnings base. Matter of pricing that potential.

With ATM, the triple downgrades (and one more to come - market consensus) have highlighted several deep weaknesses in ATM. Matter of assessing how badly the weaknesses have impacted on the company's earnings potential and then, pricing it. The good news is that we can expect the new CEO to go through the weaknesses and he will attempt to address them. Let's see what he comes up with.

[Ruby]

^ 100%.

Might be like me, down a bit on A2M due to making some bad decisions snatching the A2M falling knife while ignoring the advice of informed posters in this thread.
Ruby linking to a suicide article is in really bad taste, implying that criticism of Ruby's posts might result in Ruby's suicide - surprised that doesn't result in a forum ban, it disgusts me.
Mate,I wasn't referring to myself,but another large holder in here who has been constantly ridiculed for hanging onto a large holding,he is regularly mocked in here and Hot Copper over his massive paper loss...just looking out for others.

[Ruby]

Mate,I wasn't referring to myself,but another large holder in here who has been constantly ridiculed for hanging onto a large holding,he is regularly mocked in here and Hot Copper over his massive paper loss...just looking out for others.
Ridiculing and demeaning someone who has lost money is neither,classy,clever or in good taste.
And like I said,you don't know how they are feeling or thinking and they may be in a fragile state.

[KJMLimited]

When CEN and Mel were sold by Blackrock everyone positioned for a big sell down at a discount. The discount turned out to be a premium.

[Lease]

https://www.aleishalee.com.au/0

Daigou 2.0 has came. Wish ATM management have noted.

[alokdhir]

Most likely ATM is out from MSCI and rightly MFT/FBU in ....such indexes represent upcoming or going up companies while going down ones gets kicked out till they get their act together if they can ...this is how passive investors make money by keep following indexes which keep churning for flab out and new muscle in ...

There should not be any debate about it ....ATM needs to go as its not performed and MFT/FBU have done and doing better so for the sake of passive investors and to keep their faith in following such indexes this change need happen .

[Baa_Baa]

May is seasonally a bad month for A2M (https://www.shortman.com.au/seasonality?q=a2m), on 10 year average it's only one of three months down during the year. Shorts are climbing again, over 6% now. Chart is rubbish.

Got another parcel this week.

[alokdhir]

May is seasonally a bad month for A2M (https://www.shortman.com.au/seasonality?q=a2m), on 10 year average it's only one of three months down during the year. Shorts are climbing again, over 6% now. Chart is rubbish.

Got another parcel this week.

So most likely another downgrade and then we fulfil June's seasonality of up month ....but IMHO most likely downgrade if any will come in June mid as per past record of waiting till last moment to inform poor minority investors ...remember 18th Dec news !!!

[Balance]

QoQ reporting always way to go eh Balance .....seasonally adjusted revenues up 75% I think ;)

Commentary also mentions daigou channel down 15% on last year ...but not as bad as previous quarter

Market not fooled by the 'positive' commentary from BUB - sp down 6.8% on Friday.

https://www.afr.com/companies/manufacturing/bubs-quarterly-sales-crunched-as-daigou-slow-to-return-20210430-p57npq

Bubs quarterly sales crunched as daigous slow to return

[Balance]

Deleted deleted

[KJMLimited]

Most likely ATM is out from MSCI and rightly MFT/FBU in ....such indexes represent upcoming or going up companies while going down ones gets kicked out till they get their act together if they can ...this is how passive investors make money by keep following indexes which keep churning for flab out and new muscle in ...

There should not be any debate about it ....ATM needs to go as its not performed and MFT/FBU have done and doing better so for the sake of passive investors and to keep their faith in following such indexes this change need happen .

No entirely correct. Index funds are about how companies do relative to each other, not the absolute. Ie ATM could remain a dog and still be in the MSCI if FBU etc are also dogs.

[Akane]

This thread always seems to turn into a dogs breakfast. Almost without fail.

We need the company to make an announcement so something relevant can be chewed over.

People are just so in love with this stock and "I didn't / it can do no wrong" mentality, it's amazing how they're defending it but it just kept going down. HC is a classic cesspool of this attitude, calling everyone who present hard facts as a "downramper".

People seriously think some negative posts on a forum can move hundreds of millions of dollars? lol

This stock is a dog, I've recognised that and trying to learn as much from Balance as I can from the sidelines, expensive lesson but it's very valuable, hope I won't make the same mistakes ever again.

Funny how it's "the SP is bad because we have supply issues with the daigou", at the same time "we have so much stock that we need to discount sell them"
They still fail to realise A2 has no moat and it's just milk - easily replicated, and the CCP is pushing a narrative of nationalism, less reliance on foreign commodities.

Imagine being so in love with this pile of crap that you have to find an echo chamber to fulfil your confirmation bias.

DISC: lost a lot on this dog, holding it to remind me on a daily how I screwed up.

[Balance]

People are just so in love with this stock and "I didn't / it can do no wrong" mentality, it's amazing how they're defending it but it just kept going down. HC is a classic cesspool of this attitude, calling everyone who present hard facts as a "downramper".

People seriously think some negative posts on a forum can move hundreds of millions of dollars? lol

This stock is a dog, I've recognised that and trying to learn as much from Balance as I can from the sidelines, expensive lesson but it's very valuable, hope I won't make the same mistakes ever again.


Thanks Akane - I have highlighted the most pertinent part of your post because that is the most unfortunate part about some of the ATM posters here.

And it has cost them dearly.

I actually believe ATM still has excellent potential but its strategy needs a major reset before it's too late.

Which is why it is so vitally critical for the new CEO to do a full and proper no-holds-bar assessment of the company and make his announcement to the market.

Meanwhile, the three earnings downgrades to date (like what happened with FBU) tells us all that there's a lot wrong with the company which needs fixing.

[RGR367]

................

This stock is a dog, I've recognised that and trying to learn as much from Balance as I can from the sidelines, expensive lesson but it's very valuable, hope I won't make the same mistakes ever again.


DISC: lost a lot on this dog, holding it to remind me on a daily how I screwed up.

Yeah it's a dog and as a buyer then at 54 cents it was just a puppy :p It has to drop another 6 bucks to lose all my paper profit so pardon me for not feeling sorry that what you bought wasn't a bull.

[Akane]

Yeah it's a dog and as a buyer then at 54 cents it was just a puppy :p It has to drop another 6 bucks to lose all my paper profit so pardon me for not feeling sorry that what you bought wasn't a bull.

I don't need anyone to feel sorry for me on an internet forum bud. I just need people to wake up to the fact that in this current state, A2 is a pile of turd. And when we have experienced traders like Balance trying to bring some facts into the mix, stop trying to shut him out because there are us here who wants to listen and learn so we don't make the same mistakes again.

btw, your paper gains has shrunk from 37x to 14x, although you haven't loss anything unlike many others, I wouldn't call it a smart move neither when you had the chance to sell at $20 and buy back in at $7.65

[Ruby]

People are just so in love with this stock and "I didn't / it can do no wrong" mentality, it's amazing how they're defending it but it just kept going down. HC is a classic cesspool of this attitude, calling everyone who present hard facts as a "downramper".

People seriously think some negative posts on a forum can move hundreds of millions of dollars? lol

This stock is a dog, I've recognised that and trying to learn as much from Balance as I can from the sidelines, expensive lesson but it's very valuable, hope I won't make the same mistakes ever again.

Funny how it's "the SP is bad because we have supply issues with the daigou", at the same time "we have so much stock that we need to discount sell them"
They still fail to realise A2 has no moat and it's just milk - easily replicated, and the CCP is pushing a narrative of nationalism, less reliance on foreign commodities.

Imagine being so in love with this pile of crap that you have to find an echo chamber to fulfil your confirmation bias.

DISC: lost a lot on this dog, holding it to remind me on a daily how I screwed up.
Sorry to hear you lost money on ATM,you not the first and this is not the only stock anyone has ever lost money on.
I agree the over emotional 'up rampers' are just as bad as the 'down rampers',but when anyone says this is going to $50for sure they are dreaming,but to be fair,this is far from a 'dog stock' and it is that sort of over emotive language that winds people up I think.
I agree with Balance that the CEO's first communication with their strategy is going to be more important than the numbers.
There are going to be many companies that had big swings due to covid disruption that are going to have numbers all over the place,so YOY figures are open to interpretation from both sides.Hell you only have to look at some of the Kiwisaver providers touting their 120% returns for the last 12 months.
Yes this company has to pivot to a different mix of distribution,which they had already started before covid.
The statement about supply issues isn't really correct,there was massive 'pantry stocking' leading into the Melbourne Daigou collapse,so obviously that channel did dry up,but their wasn't a shortage due to the pantry stocking which then meant there was ample supply in China sitting in corporate daigou and others shelves.
This is all very cyclical,it will be interesting for instance to see what happens to FPH as the world returns to some normality and the 'pantry stocking' of ventilators over the last year comes to an end.
The average Chinese company with a 3d scanner could replicate their devices pretty quickly.
The CCP may be pushing a nationalism narrative,but anyone who has lived or done business in Asia knows that what is said,is not always what is actually happening and the fact that a large proportion of ATM's business is essentially a 'joint venture' with govt agencies will hold them in good stead.
Anyhow,good luck to all,what ever you may hold.

[Ruby]

I don't need anyone to feel sorry for me on an internet forum bud. I just need people to wake up to the fact that in this current state, A2 is a pile of turd. And when we have experienced traders like Balance trying to bring some facts into the mix, stop trying to shut him out because there are us here who wants to listen and learn so we don't make the same mistakes again.

btw, your paper gains has shrunk from 37x to 14x, although you haven't loss anything unlike many others, I wouldn't call it a smart move neither when you had the chance to sell at $20 and buy back in at $7.65
I think if you left out the words 'turd' and your last paragraph,then you might garner more respect,as you say stick to facts and leave the 'rubbish comments out,then everyone is happy.
"
btw, your paper gains has shrunk from 37x to 14x, although you haven't loss anything unlike many others, I wouldn't call it a smart move neither when you had the chance to sell at $20 and buy back in at $7.65"

[Biscuit]

People are just so in love with this stock .....This stock is a dog, I've recognised that..... Imagine being so in love with this pile of crap.......

"Hating" a stock is as bad as "loving" a stock. Everyone loses money on a position sometimes. It is inevitable, no matter what anyone says on here. You are going to lose money sometimes. It does not mean you "screwed up". It just means you got that trade wrong. We are all wrong at times and we will all be wrong again in the future.

[Ruby]

Interesting info on HC regards a court case that HC posters getting drawn into,so careful what you say...

https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/it%E2%80%99s-a-new-dawn-it%E2%80%99s-a-new-thread.6034305/#post-52913840

[winner69]

Interesting info on HC regards a court case that HC posters getting drawn into,so careful what you say...

https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/it%E2%80%99s-a-new-dawn-it%E2%80%99s-a-new-thread.6034305/#post-52913840

For those that are banned can you elaborate please

[silu]

Interesting info on HC regards a court case that HC posters getting drawn into,so careful what you say...

https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/it%E2%80%99s-a-new-dawn-it%E2%80%99s-a-new-thread.6034305/#post-52913840

I may as well go out saying that this has no legs to stand on. But then the moment I read ISX I start to smell bullsh*t.

[Ruby]

For those that are banned can you elaborate please
https://hotcopper.com.au/attachments/screenshot_20210504-064505-4-png.3154288/?temp_hash=7a12f9b080def83440ce7444d3bdc484

[Blue Skies]

People are just so in love with this stock and "I didn't / it can do no wrong" mentality, it's amazing how they're defending it but it just kept going down. HC is a classic cesspool of this attitude, calling everyone who present hard facts as a "downramper".

People seriously think some negative posts on a forum can move hundreds of millions of dollars? lol

This stock is a dog, I've recognised that and trying to learn as much from Balance as I can from the sidelines, expensive lesson but it's very valuable, hope I won't make the same mistakes ever again.

Funny how it's "the SP is bad because we have supply issues with the daigou", at the same time "we have so much stock that we need to discount sell them"
They still fail to realise A2 has no moat and it's just milk - easily replicated, and the CCP is pushing a narrative of nationalism, less reliance on foreign commodities.

Imagine being so in love with this pile of crap that you have to find an echo chamber to fulfil your confirmation bias.

DISC: lost a lot on this dog, holding it to remind me on a daily how I screwed up.



Its tough when you've lost a lot on this stock & you're obviously feeling quite emotional about it. But remember the old saying 'a pinch of anger wakes you up but too much clouds your judgement' & don't let it blind you to the fact just as the market is over-optimistic, it can also be over-pessimistic. I don't think anyone on here is blind to all the the challenges ATM SP is facing in all areas from Covid caused disruption to daigau channels & over dependence on that market, to shrinking PE, increasing competition, geo political forces etc & the repeated downgrades, but at some point those will be priced in (look how far it's dropped) and just as there are negatives there are also positives which would be silly to ignore, and many here on the forum are just trying to pick when it may have overshot & if it is worth buying in at these levels or still worth selling at these levels.

To my mind it's a gamble, there's too many moving parts to this to say with any conviction if there's more upside or downside risk from here, but note it's had a nice gain of about 10% in last week. If that will be sustained is the big question.

[porkandpuha]

Imagine being so in love with this pile of crap that you have to find an echo chamber to fulfil your confirmation bias.

DISC: lost a lot on this dog, holding it to remind me on a daily how I screwed up.

Sounds like you are still emotionally attached to the losses you suffered to be making posts like this. Just because you sold and realised the loss, doesn't mean others with opposite views who continue to hold are looking through rose tinted glasses.

In hindsight, A2 probably WAS a "dog" with a bleak outlook when trading at $20 mid-late last year. With hindsight, posts like yours are easy to make. Discussion in this thread is mostly around foresight, and there will come a time when the share price is justified and potentially under valued. Maybe that time is today, maybe its in 12 months time but A2 is far from a dog today.

[Ruby]

From HC;

"A few things happening which may lead to hotcopper be a little more diligent:

https://www.copyright%20link/companies/financial-services/when-a-big-talking-adviser-turns-aggressive-20210426-p57mfo

From the AFR article above.'In its lawsuit, Eight Mercatus complains that Holista’s statement caused it grief on Hot Copper, an internet bulletin board where day traders swap gossip and whinge about companies and executives they don’t like.The Hot Copper abuse, according to the Eight Mercatus filing, included allegations it was a “dodgy” “joke” engaged in “gross negligence” and “leaching money”.'

[sb9]

Seems as though $8 is first resistance today, might push that through by COB.

[alokdhir]

For me till 15th June ...danger of negative announcement from company is there ...If no news then its best news ....means they at least going to do what they said in Feb . Need wait to let that date pass ...IMHO

[Balance]

Seems as though $8 is first resistance today, might push that through by COB.

$7.99 -almost there.

Real action will always be on ASX where A$7.53 is key resistance point.

[see weed]

What's going on here. No red for 5 days:eek2:

[sb9]

$7.99 -almost there.

Real action will always be on ASX where A$7.53 is key resistance point.

Closed at A$7.45 which equates to NZ$8.05, let’s see what tmrw has in store.

[Waltzing]

7.50-60 was a support level back in 2018.

market may have thought 706 was worth a trade.

[Sideshow Bob]

From Business Desk free email:

Lewis Road Creamery moves into the A2 space (https://businessdesk.us20.list-manage.com/track/click?u=786ac0b2dc4f2240875208882&id=404854ea26&e=3b6f9185d3)High-profile Lewis Road Creamery is one of the latest players to jump into the A2 milk pool, but rather than posing a threat, the move is viewed as positive.
“My view is that the more A2 awareness there is, the more attractive the category becomes and the a2 Milk Company has a pretty good position to benefit from being the original promotor of the proposition,” said Harbour Asset Management director and senior research analyst Øyvinn Rimer.

Read on » (https://businessdesk.us20.list-manage.com/track/click?u=786ac0b2dc4f2240875208882&id=fe74695e80&e=3b6f9185d3)

[silu]

Australia and also NZ v China has escalated a bit today with a sharp drop in the share price. With my limited TA skills it looks as if it needs to trade above A$7.30 for a while to break out of the downward channel. For giggles I have read through the HC thread a bit more and I'm always reminded of this meme reading some of the more exuberant posts.
12490

[Balance]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/china-lashes-out-after-new-zealand-parliament-makes-uighur-declaration-over-severe-human-rights-abuses/NMSWDVCV7MNDEI35KO4YGXQVK4/

Not a good idea to pull the dragon’s tail.

One word from China & a swish of the dragon’s tail and stocks like ATM could fall 20%.

How dumb can NZ get?

[Ruby]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/china-lashes-out-after-new-zealand-parliament-makes-uighur-declaration-over-severe-human-rights-abuses/NMSWDVCV7MNDEI35KO4YGXQVK4/

Not a good idea to pull the dragon’s tail.

One word from China and stocks like ATM could fall 20%!
The 20% figure based on anything in particular?

[Balance]

The 20% figure based on anything in particular?

Have a look at the stocks hit by China sanctions in Australia in the last 12 months.

[Ruby]

Have a look at the stocks hit by China sanctions in Australia in the last 12 months.
In the interest of balance,perhaps you should repeat post on seafood,wine and all other dairy stocks in here...

[Ruby]

From the Guardian
China’s move to suspend a form of economic dialogue with Australia is being viewed as a response to the Australian government’s cancellation of the Victorian Belt and Road agreements and the newly announced review of the Port of Darwin lease.But its concrete impact is “zero”, according to trade expert Dr Jeffrey Wilson.The suspension relates to activities under the China-Australia Strategic Economic Dialogue (SED).Wilson, the research director at the Perth USAsia Centre at the University of Western Australia, tells me the last time such a meeting was held was in 2017.Scott Morrison, the then treasurer, and Steven Ciobo, the then trade minister, took part in the third SED in Beijing in September 2017. At the time the pair described the SED as “one of our premier bilateral economic meetings with China”.Wilson says:They suspended something we haven’t held since 2017. The concrete impact is zero … It’s only been held three times and it’s been in abeyance longer than it’s been in action.Wilson describes today’s announcement by China’s National Development and Reform Commission - the agency that had partnered with Victoria on the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) - as a “tit for tat” move.“It’s absolutely retribution for the BRI [agreements being cancelled] and in the last couple of days Peter Dutton ordering yet another review of the Darwin Port.”Wilson contends that after Beijing took action against a range of Australian export sectors last year, it had “run out of ammunition”. He says China is not willing to go after sectors like iron ore because it needs it.The Australian government had already complained that ministers have been unable to secure talks with their Chinese government counterparts since early last year. The free trade agreement remains in effect.

[Ruby]

From the Guardian
China’s move to suspend a form of economic dialogue with Australia is being viewed as a response to the Australian government’s cancellation of the Victorian Belt and Road agreements and the newly announced review of the Port of Darwin lease.But its concrete impact is “zero”, according to trade expert Dr Jeffrey Wilson.The suspension relates to activities under the China-Australia Strategic Economic Dialogue (SED).Wilson, the research director at the Perth USAsia Centre at the University of Western Australia, tells me the last time such a meeting was held was in 2017.Scott Morrison, the then treasurer, and Steven Ciobo, the then trade minister, took part in the third SED in Beijing in September 2017. At the time the pair described the SED as “one of our premier bilateral economic meetings with China”.Wilson says:They suspended something we haven’t held since 2017. The concrete impact is zero … It’s only been held three times and it’s been in abeyance longer than it’s been in action.Wilson describes today’s announcement by China’s National Development and Reform Commission - the agency that had partnered with Victoria on the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) - as a “tit for tat” move.“It’s absolutely retribution for the BRI [agreements being cancelled] and in the last couple of days Peter Dutton ordering yet another review of the Darwin Port.”Wilson contends that after Beijing took action against a range of Australian export sectors last year, it had “run out of ammunition”. He says China is not willing to go after sectors like iron ore because it needs it.The Australian government had already complained that ministers have been unable to secure talks with their Chinese government counterparts since early last year. The free trade agreement remains in effect.
Key take out from above..."He says China is not willing to go after sectors like iron ore because it needs it..."
Add dairy to that list...

[Leftfield]

Have a look at the stocks hit by China sanctions in Australia in the last 12 months.


In the interest of balance, perhaps you should repeat post on seafood,wine and all other dairy stocks in here...

In news today, seems the UK keen to progress their NZ/UK FREE trade talks...... always good for NZ to lessen it's reliance on China.

One door closes..... another opens.

More here. (https://www.beehive.govt.nz/release/nz-and-uk-agree-lift-pace-free-trade-talks)

[silu]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/china-lashes-out-after-new-zealand-parliament-makes-uighur-declaration-over-severe-human-rights-abuses/NMSWDVCV7MNDEI35KO4YGXQVK4/

Not a good idea to pull the dragon’s tail.

One word from China & a swish of the dragon’s tail and stocks like ATM could fall 20%.

How dumb can NZ get?

If Labour hadn't vetoed the statement would have mentioned "genocide". Some say this was at the behest of Chinese government which Labour of course denies. However I can certainly imagine that through back channels China was made aware of a statement coming that won't include "genocide". What happened today was just diplomatic deck shuffling. China just can't sit back and take it. The real interesting bits will happen over the next few weeks. Personally I cannot see NZ going down the same route as Australia with escalating language so I don't believe that there will be any trade war between NZ and China. Interesting fact is that despite all the tariffs China put on Australian goods the total trade between them has increased more between them than us.

[LEMON]

https://youtu.be/SShvYq5gQ2U

1 hour long news report on china - Australia trade war.

[dreamcatcher]

Interesting fact is that despite all the tariffs China put on Australian goods the total trade between them has increased more between them than us.

Probably because of the iron ore hitting US$189 ton followed by copper and coal up 42% from a year ago with Barley joining the party up 6.2%

If Australian Lobster is cheap send to NZ I would eat...........

[Ggcc]

https://youtu.be/SShvYq5gQ2U

1 hour long news report on china - Australia trade war.
Interesting how some Australian businesses feel bullied. Similar when they banned our apples for years. Some bullies don’t like bigger bullies.

[Balance]

Interesting how some Australian businesses feel bullied. Similar when they banned our apples for years. Some bullies don’t like bigger bullies.

Then there’s Air NZ, Telecom & the Warehouse - bullied by their Aussie competitors with plenty of assistance from their government of the day.

[Waltzing]

The real test for A2 Milk drunk by the chinese is if they ever get there men eight up to beat the UK mens 8.

After the millions of dollars into sport training centres in china they still cant come near the milky pale UK mens eight. China is just jealous that their men cant beat the Uk and Aussi mens eight let alone keep up with the germans.

Chinese are basically loud shouting jealous men....not matter how much AT 2 milk they drink.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ha_pK8khDuQ

Take a good look at the 5 seat in the german mens eight. For those of you who dont know your way about the seating order that's the boy with cap on backwards in the middle of the mighty german eight.

For a really good workout i recommend an outing with East German Wooden sculls (GDR 298, if you dont own a pair, i'll lend you one of my sets) and a milk protein banana shake afterwards. Dont try the sour milk on the Bosbaan course in amsterdam unless your dutch.

East German wooden sculls are only for viking oarsmen and athletes on steroids.

[BlackPeter]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/china-lashes-out-after-new-zealand-parliament-makes-uighur-declaration-over-severe-human-rights-abuses/NMSWDVCV7MNDEI35KO4YGXQVK4/

Not a good idea to pull the dragon’s tail.

One word from China & a swish of the dragon’s tail and stocks like ATM could fall 20%.

How dumb can NZ get?

No idea where you got your 20% from, but apart from that - don't we expect our parliament to show from time to time at least some spine fragments?

I would think it sad if a fictive dip to the share price of some NZ company would be seen as more important than the human rights (and lives) of millions of people.

It is not dumb to speak out and do the right thing, but it would be spineless and cowardly not to do so.

[Balance]

No idea where you got your 20% from, but apart from that - don't we expect our parliament to show from time to time at least some spine fragments?

I would think it sad if a fictive dip to the share price of some NZ company would be seen as more important than the human rights (and lives) of millions of people.

It is not dumb to speak out and do the right thing, but it would be spineless and cowardly not to do so.

Weapons of Mass Destruction, BP?

And as for parliament, what do you think of the Speaker using it to smear the reputation of an innocent man of unspeakable sex crimes beyond redemption - twice? You can keep the spine bit to yourself.

[winner69]

Yesterday’s drop in A2 shareprice was because of ‘profit taking’ according to one press report

[silu]

Yesterday’s drop in A2 shareprice was because of ‘profit taking’ according to one press report

Profit taking? All while shorts are increasing? Did the press report come straight from the dunny?

[Sideshow Bob]

Yesterday’s drop in A2 shareprice was because of ‘profit taking’ according to one press report

And who says the standards of business journalism have dropped....??? :confused:

[Balance]

Profit taking? All while shorts are increasing? Did the press report come straight from the dunny?

Think of it this way - the press simply reported what an analyst or broker said so now we know the measure of that analyst or broker.

Here’s another take :

‘A2 Milk dropped back 3.3% to $7.72 giving back much of the gain made over the past five trading sessions, which saw the stock break briefly above $8. Investors appeared willing to take that recovery as a selling opportunity.’

Coincidentally, UBS issued an updated report on Monday reiterating its ‘Buy’ recommendation but with a reduced target price due to reduced profit forecasts in 2022 & 2023.

[RTM]

https://youtu.be/SShvYq5gQ2U

1 hour long news report on china - Australia trade war.

Thanks for posting this. Had not fully realised the extent of what is happening.

[silu]

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/ATM/371884/345635.pdf

Oof I was stubborn until it hit $10.00 but now I feel grateful that I sold off my considerable stake. I wouldn't feel comfortable holding a big amount of shares at the moment. Also what do I see? Increased marketing spend? Didn't you have a CEO that advocated for that but you stubbornly wanted to keep your margins? Margins that your own huge inventory (how can it be higher than anticipated) put pressure on?

[bull....]

huge downgrade

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/ATM/371884/345635.pdf

did mention quite a while ago they would be hit with inventory problems. so confirmed. last big support was around 7.50 area which it successfully held but looks likely to collapse toda thru today. next big support area is around $2 on the charts.

[winner69]

huge downgrade

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/ATM/371884/345635.pdf

did mention quite a while ago they would be hit with inventory problems. so confirmed.

HUGE indeed

Sales now 1.2 billion

EBITDA 11% gives $130m

NPAT about $90m

Bit of a disaster I reckon

[bull....]

HUGE indeed

Sales now 1.2 billion

EBITDA 11% gives $130m

NPAT about $90m

Bit of a disaster I reckon

synliat will issue a new downgrade too soon i reckon

[winner69]

This is OK

We expect operating cash flow to be positive for the full year.


No longer a cash cow

[winner69]

Downgrade expected .......so bad news already built into the share price .....isn't it

[silu]

I cannot believe how their excess inventory might even impact Q1/2022 revenue? Whose fault is that?

[silu]

Downgrade expected .......so bad news already built into the share price .....isn't it

Not that bad of a downgrade built in I fear. They dangled the carrot of a potential share buy-back otherwise it would drop like a stone today I fear.

[winner69]

Like this bit - no worries

Underlying business

It is important to recognise that the revised outlook does not reflect the underlying performance or strength of the business. The Board and Management have determined that it is appropriate to address the inventory imbalances aggressively in order to allow the business to return to growth as quickly as possible and to deliver acceptable margins. Most of the actions that we are taking are non-cash in nature with the result that Company’s balance sheet will remain strong, and we would expect to see improved performance during FY22.

Specifically, it is estimated that if the one-off charges and sales reductions to reduce inventory in the trade were backed out for this year, the business would record annual revenues in the order of $1.3 billion with an EBITDA margin percent in the low to mid-twenties.

[Ggcc]

I cannot believe how their excess inventory might even impact Q1/2022 revenue? Whose fault is that?
They will be giving away stock. Maybe buy 3 and get a 4th for free. Or buy 1 and get a second for free
Aggressive they said.

[silu]

They will be giving away stock. Maybe buy 3 and get a 4th for free. Or buy 1 and get a second for free
Aggressive they said.

Not befitting a premium brand charging premium prices. I'm really angry right now although I'm not even a holder anymore. I should have listened to my own advise when the board got rid of Jayne to reinstate Geoff and sold then. I was stubborn until it hit $10.

[JohnnyTheHorse]

They will be giving away stock. Maybe buy 3 and get a 4th for free. Or buy 1 and get a second for free
Aggressive they said.

I doubt it as this would impact the premium image. Probably be used as stock food...

[Leftfield]

Very interesting review IMHO.

Some further points I noted....

1.) Possibility of a share buy back mooted
2.) No confirmation of the Mataura purchase proceeding, indeed the review say's ..."that the Company’s cash balance at the end of FY21 is expected to be broadly in line with FY20 (excluding the MVM acquisition impact if it completes in FY21)."
3.) Resignation of Peter Nathan CEO of Asia Pacific...... under whose watch this happened.
4.) This is clearly just the start of the review process
5.) New cloud based accounting management system touted.... clearly their systems weren't up to scratch.

Good to see the new CEO taking aggressive action. Interesting times ahead. GLH.

[alokdhir]

In nut shell How many expect $ 6 today ?

[winner69]

Nice touch David writing what the media needs to say

Quotes for media

The a2 Milk Company’s Managing Director and CEO, David Bortolussi said:

• “While our third quarter trading was broadly in line with plan, it is clear that the actions taken to address challenges in the Daigou and CBEC channels will not result in sufficient improvement in pricing, sales and inventory levels to meet our previous guidance

• “We have conducted a comprehensive review of inventory in the trade and this work has indicated that channel inventory levels are higher than had been anticipated

• “The challenges in the Daigou and CBEC channels have been exacerbated by excess inventory and difficulties with visibility

• “In the interest of the long-term health of our brand and the medium-term trading outlook of the business, more aggressive actions to address inventory will be taken which will impact FY21 revenue and EBITDA, and potentially 1Q22


• “Despite these short-term setbacks, we are confident in the long-term potential for infant nutrition and other opportunities we have in China, and are determined to build on the strong position we have built in the market over the past five years

• “We recognise that the China market and channel structure is changing rapidly and are commencing a comprehensive review of our growth strategy and executional plans to respond to this new environment

• “The Board is actively considering capital management initiatives, including a potential share buy-back
and we will provide an update at the full year results in August

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Like this bit - no worries

Underlying business

It is important to recognise that the revised outlook does not reflect the underlying performance or strength of the business. The Board and Management have determined that it is appropriate to address the inventory imbalances aggressively in order to allow the business to return to growth as quickly as possible and to deliver acceptable margins. Most of the actions that we are taking are non-cash in nature with the result that Company’s balance sheet will remain strong, and we would expect to see improved performance during FY22.

Specifically, it is estimated that if the one-off charges and sales reductions to reduce inventory in the trade were backed out for this year, the business would record annual revenues in the order of $1.3 billion with an EBITDA margin percent in the low to mid-twenties.

Its true that the underlying business isn't horrible, but the collapse in growth rate means its horribly overvalued at $5.6B market cap.

[Biscuit]

Rather than proceeding with the purchase of a dairy factory, perhaps they should invest in a pig farm to help get rid of all the excess inventory?

[bull....]

Its true that the underlying business isn't horrible, but the collapse in growth rate means its horribly overvalued at $5.6B market cap.

way overvalued now. with respect to the underlying business is all good they say they dont see any recovery as imminent which means they are uncertain of the future sales etc at this stage.

[JohnnyTheHorse]

way overvalued now. with respect to the underlying business is all good they say they dont see any recovery as imminent which means they are uncertain of the future sales etc at this stage.

Extremely painful downgrade for holders. The key takeaway for me is that there is still so much uncertainty going forward. Market will not like this.

[winner69]

Very interesting review IMHO.
.....
5.) New cloud based accounting management system touted.... clearly their systems weren't up to scratch.

.

Jayne said they didn't have an IT person when she started ....and then got fired for bringing some on board

and the caretaker didn't give a stuff about such things

[Habits]

Other companies when in the stook then use the situation to get ALL the bad news out (and more) and lower everyones expectations. From then on, what would otherwise look bad actually looks good.

[winner69]

Other companies when in the stook then use the situation to get ALL the bad news out (and more) and lower everyones expectations. From then on, what would otherwise look bad actually looks good.

But is ALL the bad news out

Worry when he says '....could affect H122' etc etc

[winner69]

At least Chairman Hearn still there to right the ship

I take it he's still ensconced in the UK somewhere and giving hugs and cuddles remotely

[BlackPeter]

HUGE indeed

Sales now 1.2 billion

EBITDA 11% gives $130m

NPAT about $90m

Bit of a disaster I reckon

Commiserations to holders.

$90m NPAT means 12 cents EPS.

Lets be optimistic and assume that the decline does not become a habit and they manage to consolidate from here. I guess they said they are reviewing their growth strategy, didn't they?

Fair price for a non growth agricultural company is something like a PE of 10 - right?

10 * 12 cents equals $1.20 per share. Ouch.

I recon today will be a field day for shorters.

[silu]

Back in 2017 I sold an awful lot of shares at $2.65 to fund the purchase of my first home. I fear we'll get back to this price in the near future.

[Frostwind]

Specifically, it is estimated that if the one-off charges and sales reductions to reduce inventory in the trade were backed out for this year, the business would record annual revenues in the order of $1.3 billion with an EBITDA margin percent in the low to mid-twenties.

No need to panic, growth will resume as soon as COVID is under control, and we are at the edge of that, along with resumption of international students/travel. The demand for foreign brand in China remains strong ( Look at Tesla's sales ) .

This whole thing is just new CEO kitchen sinking expectation, so they can easily beat it later, time to scoop up the shares today!!

[Rawz]

China label market share in the mother and baby stores stable at 2.4% No growth a bit scary. That marketing spend will need to be big to lift that. Diagou channel is stuffed. CBEC channel sales declining due to inventory wind-down. What a shambles. Bad downgrade.

What's a company worth that will do $90m NPAT FY21 and $195m NPAT FY22 (based on $1,347m revenue and 22% ebitda margin).
Give a 15 P/E on FY22 $195m NPAT (Rawz est) and you get a share price of $3.95. Scary

Way overvalued right now

[Habits]

Back in 2017 I sold an awful lot of shares at $2.65 to fund the purchase of my first home. I fear we'll get back to this price in the near future.

You have probably just answered the question, shares or property. Well done kicking out the LL and getting your own home btw

[bull....]

been down hill ever since hearn removed jane

[silu]

You have probably just answered the question, shares or property. Well done kicking out the LL and getting your own home btw

Haha but guess how often I dreamed about what my parcel would have been worth when it hit $20.00. But then owning a home is just so much better than renting. I never questioned that move.

[stoploss]

Haha but guess how often I dreamed about what my parcel would have been worth when it hit $20.00. But then owning a home is just so much better than renting. I never questioned that move.

Silu I share your pain - 150,000@ 7 cents :ohmy:

[DownTownJr]

I have a small holding in A2M with 11k NZD worth purchased, which is now down 38% and more to come after this is posted I am sure.

I'll continue to hold, but mostly because this is only a small % of my portfolio. I'll personally look at buying some more shares in the future, but it's looking very bleak.

Anyone in here still holding or have most sold out by now?

[winner69]

been down hill ever since hearn removed jane

Wonder if jayne is smiling this morning ...... probably is

What was the caretakers name now?

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Specifically, it is estimated that if the one-off charges and sales reductions to reduce inventory in the trade were backed out for this year, the business would record annual revenues in the order of $1.3 billion with an EBITDA margin percent in the low to mid-twenties.

No need to panic, growth will resume as soon as COVID is under control, and we are at the edge of that, along with resumption of international students/travel. The demand for foreign brand in China remains strong ( Look at Tesla's sales ) .

This whole thing is just new CEO kitchen sinking expectation, so they can easily beat it later, time to scoop up the shares today!!

The last year has been a massive boon for listed food companies - covid has been a tailwind, not a headwind (for almost every other food company at least).

[BlackPeter]

Specifically, it is estimated that if the one-off charges and sales reductions to reduce inventory in the trade were backed out for this year, the business would record annual revenues in the order of $1.3 billion with an EBITDA margin percent in the low to mid-twenties.

No need to panic, growth will resume as soon as COVID is under control, and we are at the edge of that, along with resumption of international students/travel. The demand for foreign brand in China remains strong ( Look at Tesla's sales ) .

This whole thing is just new CEO kitchen sinking expectation, so they can easily beat it later, time to scoop up the shares today!!

Sounds like jumping blind-folded into an abyss ... not my cup of tea.

If new CEO's just want to lower expectations to make them later on looking good, they first open all lockers and expose already any skeletons they found to the viewers eyes.

This one is announcing only to commence a review of the growth (and some other) strategies. Sounds just like Cindy creating a handful more working groups to me. Not the solution, but they may or may not uncover further problems.

But hey - while they don't promise that everything will be revealed in August, at least they promise an update at that time. How considerate.

I would at least wait until then with buying ... but that's just me :).

Good luck to all holders.

Discl: I wished that to ATM shareholders before. Sadly so far it didn't work :scared:.

[bull....]

Wonder if jayne is smiling this morning ...... probably is

What was the caretakers name now?

is that your order at $2?

[imarktu]

Anyone in here still holding or have most sold out by now?

Still holding my $21 bag.

[Ogg]

https://i.imgur.com/iMBfbPZ.gif @This stock

[trader_jackson]

Still a near $5b company that is producing less than $100m in NPAT with a highly uncertain outlook.. although down over 70% vs August last year, boy the faith in the story is still strong!

[silu]

Not factoring in all the automatic selling after being removed from the indices either. God I'm glad I finally listened to the posters (when I did) here who tried to warn us. When I sold around $10.00 it was nearly 40% of my total portfolio. The shares I bought with the proceeds are all in the green too. So yeah sometimes it pays to listen to the "downrampers" ;)

[Lion_graf]

I have a small holding in A2M with 11k NZD worth purchased, which is now down 38% and more to come after this is posted I am sure.

I'll continue to hold, but mostly because this is only a small % of my portfolio. I'll personally look at buying some more shares in the future, but it's looking very bleak.

Anyone in here still holding or have most sold out by now?


Started buying at $19... sold a bunch at 16... bought more at 13-14... sold half around 9-10... trying to sell the rest on market since 9:50am still hasn't gone through..

Live and learn i guess..

[winner69]

Still a near $5b company that is producing less than $100m in NPAT with a highly uncertain outlook.. although down over 70% vs August last year, boy the faith in the story is still strong!

Is that a forward looking PE close to 50 then

[silu]

Is that a forward looking PE close to 50 then

Doesn't matter how much I try to fudge the numbers currently my own investing criteria would indicate that it would need to trade at $2 for me to get back in again.

[silu]

Is that a forward looking PE close to 50 then

Doesn't matter how much I try to fudge the numbers currently my own investing criteria would indicate that it would need to trade at $2 for me to get back in again.

[newtrader]

When will we know whether ATM is removed from the major indexes? Given the price drop today, it surely would be removed in the next review if not soon.

[Wheelspanner]

Very tempted to get in to get a few....
But got reminded of someone in this forum advising , sometime back, "Never try to catch a falling knife".

[BlackPeter]

Is that a forward looking PE close to 50 then

I guess this depends on ones optimism, and on at which minute of the trading day one enters the relevant share price to evaluate the P/E :):

Hint: The more optimistic one is and the later in the day one makes this calculation, the lower the forward PE :) will be :t_up:.

[SailorRob]

Still trading at nearly 5 times REVENUE. Who could possibly be buying at this nose bleed valuation?

[Oberon]

Oh dear.

HC is going to be a hot mess today.

[Akane]

Oh dear.

HC is going to be a hot mess today.

HC is a hot mess everyday, but today will be extra steamy hot.

[silu]

Oh dear.

HC is going to be a hot mess today.

One cheerleader already posting and mentioned "....and it may be far more tragic that (sic) losing money." This is very poor taste if he's indicating that people will hurt themselves over this. I just hope that the worst thing people will lose over this is money.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

When will we know whether ATM is removed from the major indexes? Given the price drop today, it surely would be removed in the next review if not soon.

Which indexes are you referring to? It's still worth close to $5 Billion.

[nztx]

ATM should be creaming it, if they were doing the job right - how could they not be reading the
ongoing signals out the marketplaces they trade in correctly ?

We only get to see overall results on reports / up or downgrades - but the companies get ongoing
signals out of them long before they get reported to the markets..

Their reporting systems should be giving a constant weekly monthly quarterly etc overview
on what's going on with their trading - so no excuses really are there ?

[newtrader]

Which indexes are you referring to? It's still worth close to $5 Billion.

One or more MSCI indexes. The MSCI World index is one example.

[winner69]

One or more MSCI indexes. The MSCI World index is one example.

And talk about the ASX50 as well

[winner69]

Those who bought at 605 this morning will be happy as

And those who sold will be cursing their luck

[UkiwiS]

Those who bought at 605 this morning will be happy as

And those who sold will be cursing their luck

For a couple of days, perhaps! Who really knows?

[RTM]

Those who bought at 605 this morning will be happy as

And those who sold will be cursing their luck

...so far.

[silu]

Those who bought at 605 this morning will be happy as

And those who sold will be cursing their luck

I'm not certain if you're sarcastic today or if you really think that 605 is a great price to pay? Unless you think of intraday trading?

[ratkin]

I'm not certain if you're sarcastic today or if you really think that 605 is a great price to pay? Unless you think of intraday trading?

My guess is Winner bought about 10.30 AM just after his 20 down ramping posts :t_up:

[MauroNZ]

Before we start jumping anywhere I think we should await for Aust to open then ask oneself is this the last down grade, remember this is not ATMilks fault, B!00dy Ch!n88se !!!

Do you think there is no Chinese in this forum?.

[Balance]

Many many lessons to be learnt from what has happened with ATM share price action in the last year.

Hope they have been learnt.

[Oberon]

Many many lessons to be learnt from what has happened with ATM share price action in the last year.

Hope they have been learnt.

Well, I'm not kicking myself as much for selling @ $16 and missing the bump to ~$21, I can tell you that much.

But as far as lessons learned for holders.

- Don't fall in love with a stock. Ever. You risk slipping into an echo chamber with the blinkers on, shaking your fist at any legitimate concerns as "down ramping".
- Whether you're a trader or investor - have a plan and STICK to that plan. You must be ruthless with yourself.
- Stop Losses are your friend.

[Comyn]

Many many lessons to be learnt from what has happened with ATM share price action in the last year.
Hope they have been learnt.

Thanks to your info, many got out or held off buying.

Appreciate the input.

[newtrader]

Many many lessons to be learnt from what has happened with ATM share price action in the last year.

Hope they have been learnt.

I would like to thank everyone who posts here and freely provide their insights. Lots of lessons learnt and it saved me from making a costly mistake.

Will continue to follow this company from the sidelines and see whether there is a good long-term buying opportunity for my personal risk tolerance.

[Arbroath]

Many many lessons to be learnt from what has happened with ATM share price action in the last year.

Hope they have been learnt.

The classic is the Buffett quote about there never being one cockroach under the bed (i.e. multiple profit warnings)

Today is interesting though as it opened predictably weak, traded lower but is showing strength on good volume - I'd never be so arrogant to say today is the low but lows often look like this. Bad news for the 3rd or 4th time, plenty of investors give up, then shows surprising strength that no-one really expected etc...time will tell naturally

[SailorRob]

...so far.

Exactly. Not sure what anyone will be happy about paying 5 times a declining revenue.

5 times revenue for quackery with no moat.

[BlackPeter]

The classic is the Buffett quote about there never being one cockroach under the bed (i.e. multiple profit warnings)

Today is interesting though as it opened predictably weak, traded lower but is showing strength on good volume - I'd never be so arrogant to say today is the low but lows often look like this. Bad news for the 3rd or 4th time, plenty of investors give up, then shows surprising strength that no-one really expected etc...time will tell naturally

I recon that many investors think that this was the "all bad news are revealed" baseline coming from a new CEO and things can only get better from here. I can understand this view, but worry that they might have misread the announcement ...

Anyway ... good luck to holders.

[longy]

Before we start jumping anywhere I think we should await for Aust to open then ask oneself is this the last down grade, remember this is not ATMilks fault, B!00dy Ch!n88se !!!

Where have you been AND haven't you heard of COVID before???

Why has "B!00dy Ch!n88se" got to do with it? I do find this offensive BTW. Any body else?

[Akane]

Many many lessons to be learnt from what has happened with ATM share price action in the last year.

Hope they have been learnt.

I've learned o-wise-one

Can you please undo the portfolio balance now? Show mercy please....

[bull....]

no buyback for a while

Mr Bortoloussi said depending on the outcome of the China strategy review and the impact on capital needs, the group may consider a buyback.

Mr Bortolussi revealed Mr Nathan’s exit was a surprise

China under cloud as A2 Milk downgrades


https://www.afr.com/companies/manufacturing/a2-milk-s-china-plan-under-review-as-it-downgrades-earnings-20210510-p57qd5

[davflaws]

Why has "B!00dy Ch!n88se" got to do with it? I do find this offensive BTW. Any body else?

Mildly. But not much more than "Bloody Australians!" or "Bloody Americans!"

[forest]

HUGE indeed

Sales now 1.2 billion

EBITDA 11% gives $130m

NPAT about $90m

Bit of a disaster I reckon

This seems a worry, NPAT 1H 2021 was $120m, if the full 2021 year NPAT is indeed around $90m than this means the company is losing $30m in the second half.
I start to wonder if breakeven for next year is going to be considered a good result. Profits went up fast over the last few years, who would have thought profits would collapse so spectacularly. Maybe Balance I guess.

[winner69]

This seems a worry, NPAT 1H 2021 was $120m, if the full 2021 year NPAT is indeed around $90m than this means the company is losing $30m in the second half.
I start to wonder if breakeven for next year is going to be considered a good result. Profits went up fast over the last few years, who would have thought profits would collapse so spectacularly. Maybe Balance I guess.

Trading not too flash but going into loss mainly from writing another $90m of stock off and the costs of disposing a lot of it.