ATM - A2 Milk Corporation Limited

[Baa_Baa]

The other big issue for ATM will be the surplus A2 milk supply which they now cannot sell?

How does A2 milk "supply" affect ATM, other than their stake in SML in NZ? I don't think ATM have a 'take or pay contract' for Synlait milk do they? Not sure either how surplus 'supply' would affect ATM in Aus where the lions share of their receipts are for liquid milk.

[Balance]

How does A2 milk "supply" affect ATM, other than their stake in SML in NZ? I don't think ATM have a 'take or pay contract' for Synlait milk do they? Not sure either how surplus 'supply' would affect ATM in Aus where the lions share of their receipts are for liquid milk.

Surplus goes to competitors then, it sounds like.

[Getty]

The other big issue for ATM will be the surplus A2 milk supply which they now cannot sell?

A2 casein will be worth a premium??

More likely not.

[Getty]

Scene at the international fashion manufacturer.

Says the Button Salesman, Sir, can I interest you in these buttons made from genuine bonafide A2 milk?

Er, no.

Why not?

Well we're still trying to get rid of the organic goats milk ones you sold us last year...

[ralph]

Scene at the international fashion manufacturer.

Says the Button Salesman, Sir, can I interest you in these buttons made from genuine bonafide A2 milk?

Er, no.



Why not?

Well we're still trying to get rid of the organic goats milk ones you sold us last year...


Okay we are going to buy a new factory speculating in a2 buttons just to make sure ,and off our ex button customers to keep them happy

[Beagle]

What surprises me more than a little about ATM is they haven't diversified into other A2 based dairy products. I mean come on, they're supposed to be a marketing company aren't they so where's their so called marketing expertise ?

A2 chocolate milk buttons even if made with slightly old A2 milk powder sound pretty tasty to this dog :) Why feed the old milk powder to the pigs ?
Where's the A2 cheese, yogurt and ice-cream at the supermarket ?

[BlackPeter]

What surprises me more than a little about ATM is they haven't diversified into other A2 based dairy products. I mean come on, they're supposed to be a marketing company aren't they so where's their so called marketing expertise ?

A2 chocolate milk buttons even if made with slightly old A2 milk powder sound pretty tasty to this dog :) Why feed the old milk powder to the pigs ?
Where's the A2 cheese, yogurt and ice-cream at the supermarket ?

I think one of the issues is the huge margin they have on their IF. I think you need roughly six liters of milk plus some additives to make one can of A2 Platinum, which they used to sell for something like $40 to $ 50.

If you turn this A2 platinum however not into baby growth but into some other dairy product (if that's possible with all the additives they mixed into it - not sure about that), then it is just cheap milk powder - say $3 worth of milk powder per can.

Sure, probably still a better deal than feeding the pigs, but then - I don't know what the reprocessing would cost (if possible at all).

[winner69]

Deleted ...wrong thread

[ratkin]

Add coked chicken

That would go down a storm at KFC

[winner69]

That would go down a storm at KFC

Ha ha .... could be good for you

[Getty]

That would go down a storm at KFC
Coked chicken.
Do you want to be fried with that?

Hes a bit of a hotdog that Winner..

Who'd have known?

[Mrbuyit]

Uht cream is a big demand item for anchor /font error, so this could be of some interest, as it also increases shelf life.. it really depends on what the best use (product mix) of the raw ingredient, is there demand for some of the easier stuff to make such as butter and AMF etc rather than tricky things like cheese...
This sort of thing below is hardly ground breaking

https://www.a2milk.com.au/products/fullcreama2milkuht

I hold a few ATM, and have learnt a bit as a relatively new investor, it feels a bit like a lesson I had forgottten with ALF shares a bit over a decade ago.

[Cyclical]

Add coked chicken


That would go down a storm at KFC

Wrong kind of white powder for a coked chicken me thinks.

Incidentally, for each trading day over the last couple of weeks, this chicken stock has tracked down on average 3.5%.

Sounds more like a cocked chicken to me.

[Getty]

Cocked chicken?

Must be an opportunity with the Red Rooster chain in Aussie, 350 stores, may replace the daigou chain?

[see weed]

A2 in the green all Morning:eek2:.

[Maxtrade]

A2 in the green all Morning:eek2:.

Wonder if it will hold. Maybe its found its support level now?

[Akane]

Wonder if it will hold. Maybe its found its support level now?

Will go sideways at best - no new news, no good news, not oversold.

[Baa_Baa]

Will go sideways at best - no new news, no good news, not oversold.

"Not oversold" .. rubbish, it's massively oversold technically at 21 RSI after pulling up from 18 RSI.

[percy]

The downward trend remains intact.
Not sure which is the worst chart,,ATM or PX1.

[winner69]

The downward trend remains intact.
Not sure which is the worst chart,,ATM or PX1.

....and to think both PX1 and ATM are in the Sharetrader Top 5 in picking contest

[Balance]

....and to think both PX1 and ATM are in the Sharetrader Top 5

Really? :eek2:

[percy]

....and to think both PX1 and ATM are in the Sharetrader Top 5

Unfortunately I expect too many Sharetraders are holding one or both.

[Balance]

Unfortunately I expect too many Sharetraders are holding one or both.

3 brokers pick ATM in the NZH competition as well.

Well, there’s still 7 months to go.

[Baa_Baa]

The downward trend remains intact.
Not sure which is the worst chart,,ATM or PX1.

Sure does, the downtrends on both those charts are profound market statements on both company's performance, though PX1 is only down 60% to ATM's 75%. Both are also an opportunists study in patience and risk/reward

:scared:

[Sideshow Bob]

Just got an email through from Craigs re A2:

"We consider that at the current price, it is an attractive opportunity to add to existing holdings"

Not read the latest research report, but looks pretty comprehensive.

[Maxtrade]

Just got an email through from Craigs re A2:

"We consider that at the current price, it is an attractive opportunity to add to existing holdings"

Not read the latest research report, but looks pretty comprehensive.

Looks like might be starting to bounce, held 5.6, then 5.7, if holds 5.8 and pushes into 5.9, does this indicate the market is moving SP up into a more positive direction. Might get above 6 today if last couple of days trends carry. Or do you all feel this is very short term and yet to turn around and drop back down further again?

Not a lot to be positive about with A2M currently. But maybe with all the speculators in the stock market these days they are ready to jump on board a bounce. Nobody would have really though ATM would have been in the 5's in the first place.

[causecelebre]

Be good to see a bit action around the S/R areas and a bit of accumulation. Market structure still doesn't give any evidence of a reversal at this stage. It's way over sold on the daily and the weekly though no regular divergence that i've spotted. That pin bar on the weekly is promising but trading candles is fraught. Reasonable volume the last week.

[winner69]

Everybody loves buying things cheap

And A2 is cheap az ... and punters have finally recognised that (maybe needed a bit of push from the likes of Craigs)

[Arbroath]

Everybody loves buying things cheap

And A2 is cheap az ... and punters have finally recognised that (maybe needed a bit of push from the likes of Craigs)

UBS also think there are some early positive signs in the online sales channels in China....prices per tin up about 5% in the past few weeks apparently

[HKG2301]

Will go sideways at best - no new news, no good news, not oversold.

A great example of doom & gloom, the end of the (ATM) world as we know it.

Maybe a symptom of bearish 'group think', though, just as much as the previous bullish over-exuberance?

Various aspects drive SP: sentiment, fundamentals, TA, FOMO, spin, shorts, you name it. Investment horizon plays a part too. The secret of great comedy (and investment): timing.

ATM up 6% today, up 10% in the last two days. Well done those traders (and there will be many) who grabbed part of that action.

[sb9]

Few theories going around on HC re today's price action, early signs of daigou channel price picking, some new dairy listing on NASDAQ surging heaps on debut etc...Not sure if any of that is believable but certainly big volume on ASX so far on higher sp.

Could well be shorts covering some, wouldn't be holding my breath that the tide has turned yet....

[porkandpuha]

Few theories going around on HC re today's price action, early signs of daigou channel price picking, some new dairy listing on NASDAQ surging heaps on debut etc...Not sure if any of that is believable but certainly big volume on ASX so far on higher sp.

Could well be shorts covering some, wouldn't be holding my breath that the tide has turned yet....

Oatly? I would have thought Oatly were bad news and a direct competitor of A2 in the fresh milk game at least..

[sb9]

Oatly? I would have thought Oatly were bad news and a direct competitor of A2 in the fresh milk game at least..

Yes, that's the one.

Volume picking up on ASX, 11mln+ shares traded so far, be interesting to see what next week has in store.

[BlackPeter]

A great example of doom & gloom, the end of the (ATM) world as we know it.

Maybe a symptom of bearish 'group think', though, just as much as the previous bullish over-exuberance?

Various aspects drive SP: sentiment, fundamentals, TA, FOMO, spin, shorts, you name it. Investment horizon plays a part too. The secret of great comedy (and investment): timing.

ATM up 6% today, up 10% in the last two days. Well done those traders (and there will be many) who grabbed part of that action.

Some say the early bird gets the worm ... and others say the early bird is caught by the cat.

Pick your favorite scenario and hope like hell that you are right.

For anybody who relies on signals rather than guts feeling - ways too early to call a trend change ...

12529

[Master98]

"The a2 Milk share price has jumped 6% to A$5.54. Investors have been buying the fresh milk and infant formula company’s shares following the release of a broker note out of UBS (https://www.fool.com.au/2021/05/21/top-brokers-pick-these-3-underperforming-asx-shares-as-their-latest-buy-idea/). According to the note, the broker believes there are signs that its turnaround is working. Importantly, it believes this is being achieved without any brand damage. In light of this, UBS has put a buy rating and NZ$13.50 (A$12.50) price target on its shares."

[bottomfeeder]

I think its a bit premature to latch onto a successful turnaround as the way forward for ATM. A turnaround that translates into a long term firmer share price must have some more substance behind it. I believe that it is a dump and pump exercise going on here. I think it will get down to $5 before there will be a long term upward movement in the shareprice (+ / - 50 cents margin of course)

[porkandpuha]

I think it will get down to $5 before there will be a long term upward movement in the shareprice (+ / - 50 cents margin of course)

It was within that margin at $5.43 just 2 days ago

[Nor]

So what ATM really needs is another 100% home grown chinese food adulteration scandal preferably involving infant formula. Just a matter of time really.

[BlackPeter]

So what ATM really needs is another 100% home grown chinese food adulteration scandal preferably involving infant formula. Just a matter of time really.

Not a nice statement - and lets face it, not so easy to find these days people who are volunteering to go on death row.

[Cyclical]

So what ATM really needs is another 100% home grown chinese food adulteration scandal preferably involving infant formula. Just a matter of time really.

Not cool, dude.

[Oberon]

Looks like the bottom is in.

For the tenth time.

It's a bottom when there's been consolidation and change in direction established on the higher timeframe. As I've said over at HC for weeks, all I've wanted is a $1 retrace from a low. That's it.

I'm with Beagle - frankly, why wouldn't you be? Wait for the damn thing to turn around, presuming your goal is to capture a larger trend. Even couta is advising newcomers to stay clear until the end of the FY.

[alokdhir]

I remember reading here some TA expert had said that break of long term triangle ...target $ 6 ....that happened ...now as $ 6 was important level so need see if it stays over it or its just a bounce from overshoot of $6 and downtrend will resume after technically correcting oversold levels .

IMHO good chance it will try to retest $ 5.40 again

[BlackPeter]

Looks like the bottom is in.

For the tenth time.

It's a bottom when there's been consolidation and change in direction established on the higher timeframe. As I've said over at HC for weeks, all I've wanted is a $1 retrace from a low. That's it.

I'm with Beagle - frankly, why wouldn't you be? Wait for the damn thing to turn around, presuming your goal is to capture a larger trend. Even couta is advising newcomers to stay clear until the end of the FY.

Hmm ... not quite sure. Based on which indicators are you saying the bottom is in? Does not look different to me than many of the ripples before.

12531

I am sure that the hope for a trend change is overwhelming (in case you use his as an indicator), but other than that ... looks like there is still a long way to go before it may or may not trigger any of the more frequently used indicators.

[mike2020]

Backing this pony based on form rather than charts and trends is the safe way to go. Put a price on that with EPS and NTA and factor in no growth in anything, margins or sales, you will be being too kind. It is just that simple.

[BlackPeter]

Backing this pony based on form rather than charts and trends is the safe way to go. Put a price on that with EPS and NTA and factor in no growth in anything, margins or sales, you will be being too kind. It is just that simple.

Not sure whether "simple" is the right word.

At the end of the day - the only thing which counts for a company is the future, and - as with all other companies, the future for ATM is unknown.

If this company returns to an earnings CAGR of 15 or more, than it is cheap at todays prices. If it does not, it is too dear, easy as that.

The difficult part is to determine which of these cases it will be :):

[Balance]

Not sure whether "simple" is the right word.

At the end of the day - the only thing which counts for a company is the future, and - as with all other companies, the future for ATM is unknown.

If this company returns to an earnings CAGR of 15 or more, than it is cheap at todays prices. If it does not, it is too dear, easy as that.

The difficult part is to determine which of these cases it will be :):

Which is why it is best to wait for the strategy review and reset - and assess accordingly then.

If one needs to pay more to get into what can be a good story then, it is a well considered risk/reward decision.

There is no big hurry to put money into ATM until then, unless you think there is going to be a takeover (as in Bellamys).

Meanwhile, should be some good trading until the strategy reset for the traders out there.

[Akane]

So what ATM really needs is another 100% home grown chinese food adulteration scandal preferably involving infant formula. Just a matter of time really.

Doubt Winnie the Pooh will allow such news to get out even if it happened. It's all about face.

[flyinglizard]

Synlait Milk now expects $20m- $30m loss due to delay in shipping, lower sales price, and inventory problem.

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/372628

Is it SML only problem or an industry status? Better wait for Fonterra updates.

For ATM, the board does not know and will have a long-term strategy review in Aug.

However, Some brokers believe that ATM will have fundamental improvement and a U-turn in coming FY. Do they have a disclosure whether they hold ATM? Is there any conflict interest when they released such conclusion?

[Balance]

Doubt Winnie the Pooh will allow such news to get out even if it happened. It's all about face.

Just as it is in NZ about baby killers (like the Kahui twins killings and the numerous other infants killed) being given face?

Which is why history keeps repeating itself in NZ when it comes to infant killings?

[Balance]

https://www.raskmedia.com.au/2021/05/24/what-can-a2-milk-asxa2m-investors-learn-from-the-latest-synlait-asxsm1-guidance/

Implication of Synlait’s latest downgrade on ATM - one view anyway.

[Akane]

Just as it is in NZ about baby killers (like the Kahui twins killings and the numerous other infants killed) being given face?

Which is why history keeps repeating itself in NZ when it comes to infant killings?

Sorry mate you lost me there.

[Balance]

Sorry mate you lost me there.

Why? I believe it's very clear as Nor wished for another tragedy (preferably involving infant tragedy in China) while you believe that if it happened, it would be covered up because of 'face'?


So what ATM really needs is another 100% home grown chinese food adulteration scandal preferably involving infant formula. Just a matter of time really.


Doubt Winnie the Pooh will allow such news to get out even if it happened. It's all about face.

Meanwhile, we have in NZ ongoing infant killing incidents where the killers are granted 'face'* and are able to escape justice (shame about the murdered infants) which is why the infant killings continue in NZ.

* 'face' as in NZ justice system where the perpetrators have more rights than the victims.

Remember the 'Kahui Twins' whose heads were bashed in but nobody has been held responsible?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cris_and_Cru_Kahui_homicides

[HKG2301]

Why? I believe it's very clear as Nor wished for another tragedy (preferably involving infant tragedy in China) while you believe that if it happened, it would be covered up because of 'face'?

Meanwhile, we have in NZ ongoing infant killing incidents where the killers are granted 'face'* and are able to escape justice (shame about the murdered infants) which is why the infant killings continue in NZ.

* 'face' as in NZ justice system where the perpetrators have more rights than the victims.

Remember the 'Kahui Twins' whose heads were bashed in but nobody has been held responsible?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cris_and_Cru_Kahui_homicides


Wow. Just, wow.

Cancel culture 'offence taken', followed by false equivalence and 'whataboutism', topped off with a total mis-understanding of Chinese 'face'.

Way to go, Balance!

:t_up:

[Balance]

Wow. Just, wow.

Cancel culture 'offence taken', followed by false equivalence and 'whataboutism', topped off with a total mis-understanding of Chinese 'face'.

Way to go, Balance!

:t_up:

Face as in 'our NZ is all about equal justice and law & order ' to show the world. Never mind victim rights - it's all about criminal rights.

Never mind that killers are given 'face' and allowed to roam in society.

You have a lot to learn about the reality of today's world, Ancient Mariner - still living in the Colonial Era?

[Balance]

Back to where ATM future prospects and where its sp could go from here.

A very successful fund manager advised me years ago that he always look for divergent views on a stock, rather than blindly follow the herd which is the norm in the broking industry where analysts & brokers all have the same directional call on a stock.

Divergent views mean that someone is going to be very right and that's where the real opportunities are.

So with ATM today, we have the following updated recommendations and target prices :

Morgans ADD $6.65
UBS BUY $12.50
Bell Porter BUY $8.50

Credit Suisse SELL $5.00
Citi SELL $5.85
Macquarie SELL $5.60

Morgan Stanley HOLD $7.10

Consensus price target as at 24 May 2021 : NZ$8.01

Consensus price target a year ago : NZ$19.02, price target ranged from $13.50 to $22.00 which means that those who followed the negative view at that time saved themselves some serious money!

But of greater importance now is - who is going to be right in a year's time?

[Master98]

"The a2 Milk share price has jumped 6% to A$5.54. Investors have been buying the fresh milk and infant formula company’s shares following the release of a broker note out of UBS (https://www.fool.com.au/2021/05/21/top-brokers-pick-these-3-underperforming-asx-shares-as-their-latest-buy-idea/). According to the note, the broker believes there are signs that its turnaround is working. Importantly, it believes this is being achieved without any brand damage. In light of this, UBS has put a buy rating and NZ$13.50 (A$12.50) price target on its shares."


UBS just reduced A2M holding from 5.28% to 4.86%, is playing pump and dump games?

[Sideshow Bob]

UBS just reduced A2M holding from 5.28% to 4.86%, is playing pump and dump games?

Or lent to shorters?

[HKG2301]

Face as in 'our NZ is all about equal justice and law & order ' to show the world. Never mind victim rights - it's all about criminal rights.

Never mind that killers are given 'face' and allowed to roam in society.

You have a lot to learn about the reality of today's world, Ancient Mariner - still living in the Colonial Era?


That put me in my place. I feel quite humbled.

Doesn't change my point - actually, it rather proves it, but with an added patronizing tone.

But perhaps we should move on. Got any more to offer with respect to ATM? It is the subject of this thread, after all...

[bull....]

Move over A2 Milk (ASX:A2M), there’s a new company on the block

Attracting a bevy of celebrity investors, this newly listed company now boasts a market cap of around $13 billion.

A2 Milk acts an alternative for those who may have difficulty digesting standard cow’s milk. Without getting into the nitty-gritty details, the company’s milk still contains lactose. However, Oatly’s oat milk is completely dairy-free, lactose-free, and milk protein-free. Therefore, it is arguably an option for a wider audience of people with allergies or significant intolerances

https://www.fool.com.au/2021/05/25/moove-over-a2-milk-asx-a2m-theres-a-new-company-on-the-block/

wow huge competitor wont be long before we have oaty infant formula

[Habits]

"wow huge competitor wont be long before we have oaty infant formula"

Only if you want undernourished and unhealthy children

[Blue Skies]

Move over A2 Milk (ASX:A2M), there’s a new company on the block

Attracting a bevy of celebrity investors, this newly listed company now boasts a market cap of around $13 billion.

A2 Milk acts an alternative for those who may have difficulty digesting standard cow’s milk. Without getting into the nitty-gritty details, the company’s milk still contains lactose. However, Oatly’s oat milk is completely dairy-free, lactose-free, and milk protein-free. Therefore, it is arguably an option for a wider audience of people with allergies or significant intolerances

https://www.fool.com.au/2021/05/25/moove-over-a2-milk-asx-a2m-theres-a-new-company-on-the-block/

wow huge competitor wont be long before we have oaty infant formula



Oat milk is not really milk & is not ok for people with celiac disease or gluten intolerance & according to NHS def not suitable for babies under 1 year old & as Habits said unless heavily fortified lacks the proteins & nutrients children & anyone recovering from illness or medical treatments such as chemo or just needing a some extra protein to regain strength, which are needed & provided in natural milk.
While it may have a small niche market, milk from grass fed, GMO free dairy cows still hard to beat & once educated about the difference, don't think this much of a threat.

[BlackPeter]

"wow huge competitor wont be long before we have oaty infant formula"

Only if you want undernourished and unhealthy children

LOL - fearmongering at its best supported by no facts at all.

Lets face it ... the best nutrition for babies is their mothers breast milk ... no need for A1 or A2 or whatever cows milk. Older children and grown ups need a balanced diet, and cow's milk offers a range of vitamins and other nutrients to get there, however - it is clearly not the only option to compile a balanced diet. There are many people who don't drink milk and have still a healthy and balanced diet. There are as well people who drink milk and have an unhealthy diet.

Just check healthline:

https://www.healthline.com/health/food-nutrition/experts-is-milk-good-for-you#Every-nutrient-in-milk-can-be-found-in-whole-plant-foods.-Andy-Bellatti,-MS,-RD


“Milk is simply not necessary in the diet. Every nutrient in milk can be found in whole plant foods, and some nutrients needed for healthy bones, like vitamin K and manganese, are not in milk, but are in whole plant foods.

[Pegasus2000]

LOL - fearmongering at its best supported by no facts at all.

Lets face it ... the best nutrition for babies is their mothers breast milk ... no need for A1 or A2 or whatever cows milk. Older children and grown ups need a balanced diet, and cow's milk offers a range of vitamins and other nutrients to get there, however - it is clearly not the only option to compile a balanced diet. There are many people who don't drink milk and have still a healthy and balanced diet. There are as well people who drink milk and have an unhealthy diet.

Just check healthline:

https://www.healthline.com/health/food-nutrition/experts-is-milk-good-for-you#Every-nutrient-in-milk-can-be-found-in-whole-plant-foods.-Andy-Bellatti,-MS,-RD

However, on the same page:
There aren’t many other single foods that come close to the nutrients you get from one cup of milk. – Toby Amidor, MS, RD

[GTM 3442]

Oat milk, cow's milk, almond milk, goat's milk, whatever-you-like milk.

It's here, and it's growing volume.

I would be expecting any milk (dairy?) player to be in that market.

Just as I'd be expecting the meat processing industry to be churning out second or third generation vegan meat.

A bit like Coca Cola adding "plain" water to their "flavoured" water range.

[petty]

Bull is being satirical. He/she doesn't actually believe this. Hook line and sinker mind you

[Habits]

noun

an opaque white fluid rich in fat and protein, secreted by female mammals

That is not from oats and almonds sorry. Similar to saying vegan sausage roll

@BP You jest knowing that you have a house cow out the back and not almond trees or fields of oats. Btw did you know the alternative 'milks' are not sustainable after all

[flyinglizard]

Back to where ATM future prospects and where its sp could go from here.

A very successful fund manager advised me years ago that he always look for divergent views on a stock, rather than blindly follow the herd which is the norm in the broking industry where analysts & brokers all have the same directional call on a stock.

Divergent views mean that someone is going to be very right and that's where the real opportunities are.

So with ATM today, we have the following updated recommendations and target prices :

Morgans ADD $6.65
UBS BUY $12.50
Bell Porter BUY $8.50

Credit Suisse SELL $5.00
Citi SELL $5.85
Macquarie SELL $5.60

Morgan Stanley HOLD $7.10

Consensus price target as at 24 May 2021 : NZ$8.01

Consensus price target a year ago : NZ$19.02, price target ranged from $13.50 to $22.00 which means that those who followed the negative view at that time saved themselves some serious money!

But of greater importance now is - who is going to be right in a year's time?


UBS updated a buy price at $12.50, then sold its holdings at current price level. Who can explain this? Moral hazard or something else?

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/ATM/372828/346889.pdf

[Leftfield]

UBS updated a buy price at $12.50, then sold its holdings at current price level. Who can explain this? Moral hazard or something else?

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/ATM/372828/346889.pdf


It sold 3 mill odd shares.....it did not sell all of it's holding..... Current holding sitting just below the 5% threshold.

That aside, Brokers do what brokers do.... no surprises.

[Baa_Baa]

... That aside, Brokers do what brokers do.... no surprises.

Exactly, when the demon in the closet is keeping you awake at night, wondering what the borkers are doing, or worse believing them, it's time to turn off the computer and have a nice holiday.

[Beagle]

Move over A2 Milk (ASX:A2M), there’s a new company on the block

Attracting a bevy of celebrity investors, this newly listed company now boasts a market cap of around $13 billion.

A2 Milk acts an alternative for those who may have difficulty digesting standard cow’s milk. Without getting into the nitty-gritty details, the company’s milk still contains lactose. However, Oatly’s oat milk is completely dairy-free, lactose-free, and milk protein-free. Therefore, it is arguably an option for a wider audience of people with allergies or significant intolerances

https://www.fool.com.au/2021/05/25/moove-over-a2-milk-asx-a2m-theres-a-new-company-on-the-block/

wow huge competitor wont be long before we have oaty infant formula


The tidal wave movement to plant based nutrition cannot be ignored. Oat, Soy, almond. You name it. There's a real movement behind it because vast and ever increasing numbers of people think its cool and think they're saving the planet. That it doesn't have the same nutritional values as cow's milk doesn't matter one iota to these people. Its all about the cool thing to do and the placebo effect...because they think its better and cool they feel it is better.

I doubt any of the analysts have a clue how growth will or will not resume with demand for ATM which basically renders all DCF "valuations" as nothing more than today's estimated value of a bunch of absolute guesswork about potential cash flows in the future. More concerning is I doubt management and directors have a clue either and accordingly we're all flying blind which sheets us back to the unalienable facts that do exist, that the birth rate is in decline, that domestic brands in China are gaining serious traction and momentum and that huge logistical issues with freight won't abate anytime soon or that freedom of international travel won't resume anytime soon.

My sense is that there is no dispute that the tide is still going out and stabilizing this ship and its market share will be a heck of a lot easier said than done, let alone trying to grow it down the track which even if achievable will come at an enormous sustained marketing cost.

The trend is your friend... for those not invested. Until the trend changes the risks appear to well and truly outweigh any apparent short term rewards. On the other hand once we get a clear trend change such as a break back up through the 100 day moving average (which is unlikely to happen anytime soon and may not happen until well into 2022 or even possibly 2023) this will have been de-risked enough so the potential rewards at least balance the risk.

Disc: Sitting on my paws with this one and keeping my powder dry until I am sure the carnage is over.

[Leftfield]

From the Fonterra market update today...

“Global demand for dairy, especially New Zealand dairy, is continuing to grow. China is leading the charge as its economy continues to recover strongly. Prompted by COVID-19, people are seeking the health benefits of milk and customers are wanting to secure their supply of New Zealand dairy products and ingredients."

Here's the full release. (https://www.nzx.com/announcements/372849)

[Sideshow Bob]

From the Fonterra market update today...

“Global demand for dairy, especially New Zealand dairy, is continuing to grow. China is leading the charge as its economy continues to recover strongly. Prompted by COVID-19, people are seeking the health benefits of milk and customers are wanting to secure their supply of New Zealand dairy products and ingredients."

Here's the full release. (https://www.nzx.com/announcements/372849)

That's good, because from Business Desk this morning:

NZ milk production isn't flat-lining or declining – yet (https://businessdesk.us20.list-manage.com/track/click?u=786ac0b2dc4f2240875208882&id=2cdbd9740d&e=3b6f9185d3)New Zealand’s milk production statistics in April certainly do not point to national supply flat-lining or declining (https://businessdesk.us20.list-manage.com/track/click?u=786ac0b2dc4f2240875208882&id=880cb48ea3&e=3b6f9185d3), at least in the short-term.
Milk production was up 11.6% last month versus the prior April while season-to-date milk production was up 2.4%, figures from the Dairy Companies Association of New Zealand show.

[Balance]

From the Fonterra market update today...

“Global demand for dairy, especially New Zealand dairy, is continuing to grow. China is leading the charge as its economy continues to recover strongly. Prompted by COVID-19, people are seeking the health benefits of milk and customers are wanting to secure their supply of New Zealand dairy products and ingredients."

Here's the full release. (https://www.nzx.com/announcements/372849)

Means cost of input for IF producers goes up. Recoverable if cost increases can be passed on.

The increase in demand from China will also be due to their domestic IF companies ramping up production.

[dobby41]

Back to where ATM future prospects and where its sp could go from here.


It would be good if you could stick to ATM and use another thread for the rants.

[Balance]

It would be good if you could stick to ATM and use another thread for the rants.

Hope you took notice then when the 3 Bs warned everyone about ATM.

[dobby41]

Hope you took notice then when the 3 Bs warned everyone about ATM.

I take notice of everything.

[porkandpuha]

Hope you took notice then when the 3 Bs warned everyone about ATM.

I thought it was a bunch of B's gathering in the ATM thread to fondle each others D's in a schadenfreude kind of way?? :confused:

[Blue Skies]

Here's a lot of info about plant based alternatives to dairy milk.
Basically dairy milk sets a high bar for human health with overwhelming advantages which plant based alternatives struggle to get anywhere near.
The alternative industry has aggressively tried to lower or diminish the considerable range of health benefits of dairy milk to enable them to compete.

Whilst acknowledging the environmental impact of dairy which our farmers are doing their best to mitigate, apart from the much higher health benefits of dairy milk, plant based alternatives like almond production have been a disaster for both bee colonies and water tables in places like California, and soy is produced mainly in mass monoculture operations with much of it being sprayed multiple times before harvest with glyphosphate based herbicides which are linked to cancer.


This from National Centre for Biotech Information, part of US National Library of Medicine.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7810394/

[Sideshow Bob]

Here's a lot of info about plant based alternatives to dairy milk.
Basically dairy milk sets a high bar for human health with overwhelming advantages which plant based alternatives struggle to get anywhere near.
The alternative industry has aggressively tried to lower or diminish the considerable range of health benefits of dairy milk to enable them to compete.

Whilst acknowledging the environmental impact of dairy which our farmers are doing their best to mitigate, apart from the much higher health benefits of dairy milk, plant based alternatives like almond production have been a disaster for both bee colonies and water tables in places like California, and soy is produced mainly in mass monoculture operations with much of it being sprayed multiple times before harvest with glyphosphate based herbicides which are linked to cancer.


This from National Centre for Biotech Information, part of US National Library of Medicine.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7810394/

The other aspect is the environmental impact for the relative nutritional benefit. With milk, it is not like litre for litre it is the same nutritionally as alternatives (as well pointed out). It could be that have to consume 0.5x, 1x, 2x more of an alternate milk/juice to get the same nutritional benefit as cows milk - and have to consider this in terms of the environmental impact, and magnify the alternates impact accordingly.

Because of this, it could be that almond juice for example might have a worse environmental impact than cows milk.

Yeah, almonds.......10% of the water use in California, and each almond takes 12 litres to grow. Luckily there is only 25 almonds in a litre of almond juice.....;)

[Rant Over]

[bull....]

a2 might be banned


A Chinese Communist Party spokesman has urged New Zealand to "make the pie of co-operation bigger", amid a flurry of speculation in Beijing that Foreign Affairs Minister Nanaia Mahuta is growing cold on China

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/125250008/china-urges-new-zealand-to-make-the-pie-of-cooperation-bigger-after-nanaia-mahutas-storm-comments

only way is for mahuta to acknowledge new zealand is not aeoteroa but it is new Xi land

[dobby41]

only way is for mahuta to acknowledge new zealand is not aeoteroa but it is new Xi land[/FONT][/SIZE]

Which isn't going to happen.

[Sideshow Bob]

Don't worry about A2, worry about the whole NZ economy!

The one area that miss the wily old fox Winston.

Could always be depended to head up to Beijing for a few cigars and whiskies.....

[dobby41]

Don't worry about A2, worry about the whole NZ economy!

The one area that miss the wily old fox Winston.

Could always be depended to head up to Beijing for a few cigars and whiskies.....

When he was singing the praises of USA and lamenting the increase in China's influence in the Pacific?

[Balance]

a2 might be banned


A Chinese Communist Party spokesman has urged New Zealand to "make the pie of co-operation bigger", amid a flurry of speculation in Beijing that Foreign Affairs Minister Nanaia Mahuta is growing cold on China

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/125250008/china-urges-new-zealand-to-make-the-pie-of-cooperation-bigger-after-nanaia-mahutas-storm-comments

only way is for mahuta to acknowledge new zealand is not aeoteroa but it is new Xi land

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/pm-jacinda-ardern-no-change-in-nz-china-relationship-despite-mahutas-storm-comments/UBZ56UOBPN3KOZZ4B6TZ7BOARE/

Cindy dampening the concerns.

Even the clueless one knows that China accounts for more than 35% of NZ exports.

[bull....]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/pm-jacinda-ardern-no-change-in-nz-china-relationship-despite-mahutas-storm-comments/UBZ56UOBPN3KOZZ4B6TZ7BOARE/

Cindy dampening the concerns.

Even the clueless one knows that China accounts for more than 35% of NZ exports.

england dumped nz years ago so cant see china not doing the same if it suits them. nz hasnt learnt about diversification

heres the china news

GT Voice: NZ needs to remain pragmatic to steer clear from unnecessary ‘storm

https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202105/1224471.shtml

[Blue Skies]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/pm-jacinda-ardern-no-change-in-nz-china-relationship-despite-mahutas-storm-comments/UBZ56UOBPN3KOZZ4B6TZ7BOARE/

Cindy dampening the concerns.

Even the clueless one knows that China accounts for more than 35% of NZ exports.


Not clueless, the art of diplomacy, maintaining good relations with allies in conflict, getting a Foreign Minister to placate Australia while the PM placates China.

[Leftfield]

Export Milk Powder data ex Lyttleton as posted by Werdplaya on HC shows the imminent demise of ATM might yet be delayed.

12548

Data roughly shows 20% vol increase FY21 v FY20 (with 2 months to go) and approx 50% up on same period last year.

That said, huge caution needed with any interpretation of these volume based figs as we don't know how they translate into ATM revenue. Indeed the naysayers will claim ATM is giving it away free just to get rid of unwanted stock.

[Balance]

Export Milk Powder data ex Lyttleton as posted by Werdplaya on HC shows the imminent demise of ATM might yet be delayed.

12548

Data roughly shows 20% vol increase FY21 v FY20 (with 2 months to go) and approx 50% up on same period last year.

That said, huge caution needed with any interpretation of these volume based figs as we don't know how they translate into ATM revenue. Indeed the naysayers will claim ATM is giving it away free just to get rid of unwanted stock.

Left Field obviously has not caught up with ATM writing off $120m of stock? Stock which had been sold and involuted in the export stats but are actually non-sales as they are being written off!

[bigbruce]

OZ have had a poke in the eye for siding with Trump re origin of covid, coal, wheat, crayfish, wine

https://www.abc.net.au/4corners/poking-the-dragon/13318142

An interesting book "In the jaws of the dragon" by Ron Asher, How china is taking over NZ, with the welcome mat laid by John Key

ATM and all other companies must diversify their markets

[Balance]

OZ have had a poke in the eye for siding with Trump re origin of covid, coal, wheat, crayfish, wine

https://www.abc.net.au/4corners/poking-the-dragon/13318142

An interesting book "In the jaws of the dragon" by Ron Asher, How china is taking over NZ, with the welcome mat laid by John Key

ATM and all other companies must diversify their markets

Yawn - from Oz, the country which shafts NZ every opportunity it gets.

From Air NZ to Telecom, from removing NZers entitlements in Oz when they move there to study or work, from dumping hardened Ozzie brought up criminals to NZ!

Greetings from the big bully (who does not like to be bullied by a bigger one) - ENJOY, Kiwi suckers !!!!

Only in NZ would you get anyone taking note of what the Ozzie bully says!

[Leftfield]

Left Field obviously has not caught up with ATM writing off $120m of stock? Stock which had been sold and involuted in the export stats but are actually non-sales as they are being written off!

Wakey Wakey Balance the last para was written just for you.....

[Balance]

Wakey Wakey Balance the last para was written just for you.....

Haha - not much point you posting that self contradicting infor then without looking closely at what happened with ATM?

Then, there’s Fonterra’ s announcement today of buoyant conditions for whole milk powder exports to China. Explains where the 50% increase came from.

[Leftfield]

Haha - not much point you posting that self contradicting infor then without looking closely at what happened with ATM? .

Ha ha indeed.... I would call it a well balanced post...... clearly something you don't understand.

[Balance]

Ha ha indeed.... I would call it a well balanced post...... clearly something you don't understand.

It is indeed balanced - ‘on the one hand but on the other’ post!

Would be useful when perspective is provided. Which I have.

[nztx]

SP is a bit bouncy - isn't it ? ;)

Any bets on where to from here ? ;)

[Master98]

SP is a bit bouncy - isn't it ? ;)

Any bets on where to from here ? ;)
Yesterday sp drop was due to UBS sell, today sp drop is due to foreign minister china talk, just guessing tomorrow sp will rise if no events related to ATM.

[bull....]

daily bollingers opened up for a move down to 4.50

[Balance]

daily bollingers opened up for a move down to 4.50

ATM strictly for traders imo until such time as the company releases its strategy reset program.

Company has no credibility and analysts/brokers with a positive bias out there even less so after blindly following the company’s earnings guidance, swallowing the BS whole and losing clients’ big money.

Analysts/brokers with a negative bias currently have the ascendency so sp is going to track closer to their valuations and recommendations.

Too many out there still with their rose tinted glasses looking at the rear view mirror and imagining ATM going back to $20+.

[aperitif]

Bull, I assume you mean $USD? hehehe

[Arbroath]

daily bollingers opened up for a move down to 4.50

Looks like we might have a double bottom in place at least short term. If it can clear $6.15-6.20 early next week I’d bet in $7 before any potential test of $5.

[Blue Skies]

Interested to see Hamilton Hindin Greene saying they were seeing bargain hunters moving in towards end of last week.
Trickle could become a flood at first sign of any good news & the possibility of a quick 20 -25% gain, but pure speculation on my part.
Still at some point it will be or have been oversold.

[Balance]

Interested to see Hamilton Hindin Greene saying they were seeing bargain hunters moving in towards end of last week.
Trickle could become a flood at first sign of any good news & the possibility of a quick 20 -25% gain, but pure speculation on my part.
Still at some point it will be or have been oversold.

There will most likely be a huge fifth downgrade when the strategy review and reset is announced - whenever that is.

So traders are best to play the game tight & short. There’s money to be made from the rose tinted glass wearers with their eyes firmly fixed on the rear windscreen mirror!

[winner69]

Do traders generally close their position at end of the week?y

[RTM]

Do traders generally close their position at end of the week?y

Always. Except when the price goes down. Then they become investors.

[Balance]

Always. Except when the price goes down. Then they become investors.

Haha - well said!

I have to say that in all my years of interaction with all kinds of market players, I have met very very few consistently successful traders.

The successful ones were very disciplined with tight trading limits and then, figured out that they were actually better off just investing in sound long term growth stocks! Less stress and more gains.

Then there are those who enjoy trading but that’s a different story altogether. There’s an 85 years old trader I know who trade everyday, using options(!) and rather involved strategies, to keep his mind sharp. His private company is one of NZ’s biggest rural property owners.

[Balance]

But the markets need traders - otherwise, there’s bugger all excitement & volatilities which we know, create opportunities!

[kiora]

Milk value train
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/the-monitor/125275490/the-monitor-economy-qa-alan-bollard
"Continuing failure to extract value from our exports. (For an account of how Singapore makes more money from our dairy powder than we do, see the NZ PECC Dairy Value Chain report!)"
https://www.pecc.org/publications/540-nzpecc-global-value-chains-report

[Sideshow Bob]

From Fonterra's market quarterly:

China - "With the exception of infant formula, increased volumes were observed across all other product categories"

347294.pdf (nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com) (http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/FCG/373090/347294.pdf)

[bull....]

a2 about to be sued .... wait for other suitors to appear as well i reckon they all want some of a2 cash pile. no good for the company be tied up in law suits for ever now.



Media reporting regarding potential class action


https://www.nzx.com/announcements/373089


Slater and Gordon investigates possible a2 Milk class action


Based on its investigations to date, Slater and Gordon wrote in an email to investors viewed by The Australian Financial Review that shareholders who had purchased stock on both the ASX and NZX between August 19, 2020 and May 7, 2021 may have basis for a claim

https://www.afr.com/companies/manufacturing/slater-and-gordon-investigates-possible-a2-milk-class-action-20210527-p57vlj

[Blue Skies]

a2 about to be sued .... wait for other suitors to appear as well i reckon they all want some of a2 cash pile

Media reporting regarding potential class action


https://www.nzx.com/announcements/373089


Slater and Gordon investigates possible a2 Milk class action


Based on its investigations to date, Slater and Gordon wrote in an email to investors viewed by The Australian Financial Review that shareholders who had purchased stock on both the ASX and NZX between August 19, 2020 and May 7, 2021 may have basis for a claim

https://www.afr.com/companies/manufacturing/slater-and-gordon-investigates-possible-a2-milk-class-action-20210527-p57vlj



Could this be connected to directors selling large chunks of stock at the peak and the disconnect between what was being forecast & reality?

[winner69]

a2 about to be sued .... wait for other suitors to appear as well i reckon they all want some of a2 cash pile. no good for the company be tied up in law suits for ever now.



Media reporting regarding potential class action


https://www.nzx.com/announcements/373089


Slater and Gordon investigates possible a2 Milk class action


Based on its investigations to date, Slater and Gordon wrote in an email to investors viewed by The Australian Financial Review that shareholders who had purchased stock on both the ASX and NZX between August 19, 2020 and May 7, 2021 may have basis for a claim

https://www.afr.com/companies/manufacturing/slater-and-gordon-investigates-possible-a2-milk-class-action-20210527-p57vlj


If class action wins who pays ................

[bull....]

Could this be connected to directors selling large chunks of stock at the peak and the disconnect between what was being forecast & reality?

all the details are in the AFR story

[Balance]

There will be a few sleepless nights ahead for the amateurish directors & managers who sold shares in August 2020

[winner69]

Media reporting regarding potential class action

The a2 Milk Company (“the Company”) is aware of media reporting concerning a potential class action against the Company that is apparently being investigated by Slater & Gordon Lawyers. The Company is not aware of any legal proceeding having been filed at this time. The Company believes that it has complied with all applicable disclosure obligations and denies any claim to the contrary. The Company will respond further if and when any legal proceedings are commenced.

[Balance]

The discovery process will be very interesting if a class action is filed.

When & what did the company directors & managers know when they sold shares and if their defence is that they did not know, why not.

Many billions of dollars at stake and ATM’s cash reserves may not be enough?

Short term, forget about a takeover as no acquirer wants to be involved in a class court action.

[Balance]

Big question for NZ traders - do they bail before ASX opens or wait for the reaction of the Aussie big hitters?

I know what I will be doing if I have ATM shares which I don’t.

[Beagle]

19 August 2020 Results presentation with the very interesting title "Building From Strength" I think this legal action will hinge upon whether the directors painted a disingenuous picture of the outlook (including the title of the presentation) just before they dumped vast numbers of shares. http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/ATM/358233/328662.pdf Results presentation
Annual Report also very boldly titled Building from STRENGTH http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/ATM/358216/328658.pdf

This could involve as Balance has quite rightly suggested, an interesting discovery process of internal emails and communications about who knew what and said what to whom before quite a number of insiders sold huge amounts of shares.

[RTFG]

I may have missed the point somewhere but surely in any class action the shareholders - ultimately - are taking action against themselves. Unless of course they have already bailed. In reality a class action doesn’t recover any money from anyone other than the directors and that in the larger scheme of things won’t even pay the legal fees. Or have I missed something?

[winner69]

Class action talk obviously just a bit of mischief from the AFR

Wait for Street Talk to mention an impending takeover ...that be exciting

[Biscuit]

Class action talk obviously just a bit of mischief from the AFR

Wait for Street Talk to mention an impending takeover ...that be exciting

No, I reckon a class action would be way more exciting!!

[sb9]

Media reporting regarding potential class action

The a2 Milk Company (“the Company”) is aware of media reporting concerning a potential class action against the Company that is apparently being investigated by Slater & Gordon Lawyers. The Company is not aware of any legal proceeding having been filed at this time. The Company believes that it has complied with all applicable disclosure obligations and denies any claim to the contrary. The Company will respond further if and when any legal proceedings are commenced.

Slater & Gordon should look at how they destroyed their own shareholders value before looking at taking class action on other companies. Bit cheeky on them and if anyone can remember BAL class action which didn't go anywhere.
This news is much ado about nothing.

[clearasmud]

Remember the Vocus class action.
We got paid out a reasonable amount.

[aperitif]

Why has it taken S&G this long to file...potential tactic by funds to accumulate? Who knows???

Tightening across E-Commerce platforms now evident. Marketing looks to have ramped up, and pricing now getting up to levels mentioned in the call. Have some screenshots and images for those interested. PM me

[Bjauck]

19 August 2020 Results presentation with the very interesting title "Building From Strength" I think this legal action will hinge upon whether the directors painted a disingenuous picture of the outlook (including the title of the presentation) just before they dumped vast numbers of shares. http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/ATM/358233/328662.pdf Results presentation
Annual Report also very boldly titled Building from STRENGTH http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/ATM/358216/328658.pdf

This could involve as Balance has quite rightly suggested, an interesting discovery process of internal emails and communications about who knew what and said what to whom before quite a number of insiders sold huge amounts of shares.
They were quite upbeat in that presentation. However they did outline the uncertainty in their section on outlook. Given covid, it will be interesting to see how much reliance could be placed on a forecast with a covid caveat.

From the report:

“OutlookFY21
• Globally, there continues to be uncertainty resulting from COVID-19, and the potential for moderation of economic activity. This could impact consumer behaviour in our core markets, as well as participants within the supply chain, most notably in China
• Notwithstanding these uncertainties, overall for FY21, we anticipate continued strong revenue growth supported by our continued investment in marketing and organisational capability”

[Balance]

Slater & Gordon should look at how they destroyed their own shareholders value before looking at taking class action on other companies. Bit cheeky on them and if anyone can remember BAL class action which didn't go anywhere.
This news is much ado about nothing.

Actually the Bellamys Class Action was successful.

https://www.slatergordon.com.au/class-actions/current-class-actions/bellamys

Under the proposed agreement, Bellamy’s will pay a total of $49.7 million, inclusive of interest and costs, to settle the claims of group members in the McKay Class Action and the related proceeding, the Basil Class Action, brought against the company in 2017.

[Balance]

Why has it taken S&G this long to file...potential tactic by funds to accumulate? Who knows???

Tightening across E-Commerce platforms now evident. Marketing looks to have ramped up, and pricing now getting up to levels mentioned in the call. Have some screenshots and images for those interested. PM me

Hardly surprising since ATM has decided to replace IF with rapidly expiry dates with new ones (hence the $90m stock write off).

Issue is - how well will sales hold up with the 'new' stock?

[Balance]

Remember the Vocus class action.
We got paid out a reasonable amount.

Those who bought off the directors & managers in August after the company’s bullish comments - a good prima-facie case that they were misled.

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/business/443717/a2-milk-could-face-class-action-from-investors-reports

[Beagle]

They were quite upbeat in that presentation. However they did outline the uncertainty in their section on outlook. Given covid, it will be interesting to see how much reliance could be placed on a forecast with a covid caveat.

From the report:

“OutlookFY21
• Globally, there continues to be uncertainty resulting from COVID-19, and the potential for moderation of economic activity. This could impact consumer behaviour in our core markets, as well as participants within the supply chain, most notably in China
• Notwithstanding these uncertainties, overall for FY21, we anticipate continued strong revenue growth supported by our continued investment in marketing and organisational capability”

I think its going to come down to what was the main thrust of what they had to say. For what its worth i thought they had a heck of a lot to say about
BUILDING FROM STRENGTH usually in huge bolded and capital font and a very modest amount of things to say about Covid risks in standard sized font without capitals. I think you'll get my point when you read this post...if you say things in massive font there is a clear argument to say the intention behind that was to "color" or "flavor" or "cast" the annual report and presentation materials in a very positive way.

If it turns out under discovery that there were any internal communications to the contrary just before insiders sold huge volumes of shares, (very shortly after making these bullish statements), just nine days later from memory, then given the bullish overall nature of the reports I think there's a prima facie case to answer.

[jimdog31]

I think its going to come down to what was the main thrust of what they had to say. For what its worth i thought they had a heck of a lot to say about
BUILDING FROM STRENGTH usually in huge bolded and capital font and a very modest amount of things to say about Covid risks in standard sized font without capitals. I think you'll get my point when you read this post...if you say things in massive font there is a clear argument to say the intention behind that was to "color" or "flavor" or "cast" the annual report and presentation materials in a very positive way.

If it turns out under discovery that there were any internal communications to the contrary just before insiders sold huge volumes of shares, (very shortly after making these bullish statements), just nine days later from memory, then given the bullish overall nature of the reports I think there's a prima facie case to answer.

Agreed. How many have since resigned? Peter Nathan i think would have been well in the know.

[alokdhir]

So how many are contemplating to join the class action suit against ATM ?

Need to be eligible as per the guidelines .

[flyinglizard]

What is the motivation for insiders selling?

Lots of things during the period needed to be reviewed regards to that forecast report.

- meeting minutes
- communication records with corporate daigou, retail daigou during the period
- Company marketing strategy changes if any during the period, marketing expense or any promotion
- Any account payable & receivable, cash flow changes in terms of period, policy or something else during the period, which may be not compliance with long term pattern.
- The original spreadsheet or work of forecast numbers in the report , how many drafts they had, any significant changes from draft to the final one, who authorized for the change.
- Any anonymous current or ex-staff leak some info?

[Bjauck]

I think its going to come down to what was the main thrust of what they had to say. For what its worth i thought they had a heck of a lot to say about
BUILDING FROM STRENGTH…. …always read the small print too. However, I agree. They will have to show that the report was not misleading at the time it was published and that continuous disclosure obligations were subsequently met.

[Beagle]

So how many are contemplating to join the class action suit against ATM ?

Need to be eligible as per the guidelines .

I can certainly think of one former prominent poster on here that was buying around the time the insiders were selling down and has since suffered huge losses.

I had a look at the share price action between the day before the FY20 announcement (18/8/2020) and when the insiders sold and what makes this case interesting is that the market reached a very clear peak the day before the announcement on 18/8/2020 and never recovered those heights despite the relatively bullish outlook statement. Its hard to make a case that the bullish outlook statement had any material positive impact on the share price either on the day of the announcement or in the near term thereafter. That said it's interesting to note that Peter Nathan became eligible for the issuance of 800,000 shares as a result of exercising options on 19/08/2020 at 63 cents and then on 24/08, 25/08 and 26/08/2020 almost immediately sold almost all of them. Many other insiders also sold substantial stakes at that time.
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/358806 so the question has to be asked, if the outlook commentary wasn't stated to be so robust would the shares have still been ~ $20 ?

Anyway...good luck to shareholders joining this class action. It reminds me of the sales job done on Feltex shareholders when that was floated and look how long that went through the courts and the poor result for shareholders ! More than 13 years and no satisfaction ! https://www.simpsongrierson.com/articles/2021/feltex-class-action-finally-at-an-end

[Balance]

I can certainly think of one former prominent poster on here that was buying around the time the insiders were selling down and has since suffered huge losses.

I had a look at the share price action between the day before the FY20 announcement (18/8/2020) and when the insiders sold and what makes this case interesting is that the market reached a very clear peak the day before the announcement on 18/8/2020 and never recovered those heights despite the relatively bullish outlook statement. Its hard to make a case that the bullish outlook statement had any material positive impact on the share price either on the day of the announcement or in the near term thereafter. That said it's interesting to note that Peter Nathan became eligible for the issuance of 800,000 shares as a result of exercising options on 19/08/2020 at 63 cents and then on 24/08, 25/08 and 26/08/2020 almost immediately sold almost all of them. Many other insiders also sold substantial stakes at that time.
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/358806 so the question has to be asked, if the outlook commentary wasn't stated to be so robust would the shares have still been ~ $20 ?

Anyway...good luck to shareholders joining this class action. It reminds me of the sales job done on Feltex shareholders when that was floated and look how long that went through the courts and the poor result for shareholders ! More than 13 years and no satisfaction ! https://www.simpsongrierson.com/articles/2021/feltex-class-action-finally-at-an-end

Something stinks to high heavens and it certainly is not the expired infant formula!

Feltex - key different between ATM & Feltex is that ATM is principally owned by institutional shareholders with deep pockets whiles Feltex was owned by almost all retail shareholders save around 10% by institutions.

Sounds like some shareholders initiated the investigation by S&G?

"According to the report in the AFR, Slater and Gordon is investigating a possible class action claim on behalf of investors who bought shares over a nine-month period between 19 August 2020 and 7 May 7 2021.

During this time, the infant formula company posted four downgrades, leading to a bitterly disappointing 62% decline in its share price. Also occurring during these dates and before the downgrades began were a series of insider sales by executives comprising millions of dollars’ worth of a2 Milk shares.

The report reveals that Slater and Gordon alleges a2 Milk may have engaged in misleading or deceptive conduct in breach of the Corporations Act. It may also have possibly breached continuous disclosure rules.

The law firm stated: “There may be basis to allege that by no later than August 19, 2020, a2 Milk was or ought to have been aware the full-year 2021 guidance did not adequately take into account a number of factors which would impact the company’s financial performance.”

“Earlier last year, the company seemed to be talking about COVID-related impacts that have affected its business. But when there was this fourth downgrade, that started revealing information about more systemic and structural problems that seem to exist in the business, which triggered us to go back and look through not only the most recent downgrade but what’s happened over the last nine months.”“

“Our investigation is considering whether or not all of the information that’s been dripped out by the company over the last nine months was actually not in the company in August when they gave that initial full-year guidance,” it added.

[Leemsip]

Won't go anywhere IMHO. Covid put a lot of uncertainty in the forecasts. Would be an easy out for management.

[winner69]

Won't go anywhere IMHO. Covid put a lot of uncertainty in the forecasts. Would be an easy out for management.

Caveat emptor as they say

[Balance]

Won't go anywhere IMHO. Covid put a lot of uncertainty in the forecasts. Would be an easy out for management.

Would have been but for the fact that they went into an orgy of share sales a month before the first downgrade.

[Beagle]

Do Slater and Gordon work on a no win, no fee contingency basis where they get a third of any winnings ?
A multi billion dollar law suit might be enough to put the fear of God into the directors and solicit a settlement offer in the tens of millions ?

[Balance]

Do Slater and Gordon work on a no win, no fee contingency basis where they get a third of any winnings ?
A multi billion dollar law suit might be enough to put the fear of God into the directors and solicit a settlement offer in the tens of millions ?

Directors will want to settle if they have any concerns about the discovery process unearthing untoward behaviour when they sold their shares, or gross incompetence & mismanagement.

When you think about it, it is either one or the other but could be both.

ATM is the ideal company for G&S to take a class action against - $500m in the bank to pay for damages.

https://www.slatergordon.com.au/class-actions

Fees
Our Class Action cases are usually run on a No Win - No Fee* arrangement. Slater and Gordon, or a litigation funder, usually bear the costs and the risks associated with running the case.

[Baa_Baa]

Interesting development, hope their premiums are paid up for PI, PL, D&O. Doubt it’ll get legs but an interesting sideshow.

[Beagle]

Directors will want to settle if they have any concerns about the discovery process unearthing untoward behaviour when they sold their shares, or gross incompetence & mismanagement.

When you think about it, it is either one or the other but could be both.

ATM is the ideal company for G&S to take a class action against - $500m in the bank to pay for damages.

https://www.slatergordon.com.au/class-actions

Fees
Our Class Action cases are usually run on a No Win - No Fee* arrangement. Slater and Gordon, or a litigation funder, usually bear the costs and the risks associated with running the case.

Might as well try "hounding" them and see what happens ;) A lot have gone on fishing expeditions with less attractive prospects that what's apparent here.

[Balance]

Might as well try "hounding" them and see what happens ;) A lot have gone on fishing expeditions with less attractive prospects that what's apparent here.

Comments from S&G :

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/rural/2021/05/a2-milk-could-face-class-action-from-investors-reports.html

[Biscuit]

.... gross incompetence & mismanagement. When you think about it, it is either one or the other but could be both.....

It's not a crime to be incompetent of course or dishonest for that matter. Were they deliberately misleading for their own benefit? Possibly, but hard to prove I would bet.

[Balance]

Very much class action modus operandi.

Start building up a case, leak to the media and get others to join the class action and hopefully, whistle blowers to provide information (if any).


Comments from S&G :

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/rural/2021/05/a2-milk-could-face-class-action-from-investors-reports.html

On Monday, law firm Slater and Gordon confirmed to Newshub a number of shareholders had "indicated their interest in potential proceedings" against the company, though "no proceedings have yet been filed".

Slater and Gordon class actions principal lawyer Kaitlin Ferris said the company expects more investors will continue to come forward as the investigation is completed.

"A2 Milk gave market guidance in August 2020 which promised strong growth in revenue – subsequently, the company issued four downgrades to revenue and EBITDA margin guidance," Ferris said.

"Slater and Gordon is investigating whether the information ultimately released by A2 is likely to have been known to the company at an earlier stage, and therefore whether A2 breached its obligations to keep investors informed of material information in a timely manner."

Ferris said the law firm expected to have reached a view about whether there is sufficient basis for a claim to be made in the coming weeks.

[Balance]

It's not a crime to be incompetent of course or dishonest for that matter. Were they deliberately misleading for their own benefit? Possibly, but hard to prove I would bet.

Ever heard of insider information & insider trading?

[HKG2301]

As far as I can tell, the class action is only for Aussie investors.

[nztx]

Certainly looks like an interesting Rat's nest for the investigating

May well be something a bit more smelly lurking

After all, an outfit this size doesn't throw it's records & papers into a large box and turf it across
the Accountants counter every 6 or 12 months..

Probably deserving of a bit of delving back into the last CEO's reign too .. ;)

A CEO doesn't normally liquidate their allocated parcels in a large bundle, shortly before running off elsewhere..

Hopefully any potential action will be opened up for all eligible shareholders ..

[stoploss]

China to the rescue .....
China allows couples to have three children https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-57303592

[Dassets]

Interesting development, hope their premiums are paid up for PI, PL, D&O. Doubt it’ll get legs but an interesting sideshow.

No insurance can cover you for criminal wrong doing, not even legal fees FYI, only civil and then there are carve outs.

[Biscuit]

Ever heard of insider information & insider trading?

Hard to prove when they've got the fallback argument that they thought covid was only a temporary hit, and lets face it, it does seem they don't really have a clue what's going on in their route to market in China.

[Ggcc]

Hard to prove when they've got the fallback argument that they thought covid was only a temporary hit, and lets face it, it does seem they don't really have a clue what's going on in their route to market in China.
I agree very hard to prove. I still remember Wynyard going through this process and there were some idiot directors in that company, over promising and completely under delivering and somewhat misguiding shareholders. Nothing came from it. I don’t see anything coming from this as well.

[RTM]

China to the rescue .....
China allows couples to have three children https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-57303592

Not sure that will help…
“The census, released earlier this month, showed that around 12 million babies were born last year - a significant decrease from the 18 million in 2016, and the lowest number of births recorded since the 1960s.”

[BlackPeter]

China to the rescue .....
China allows couples to have three children https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-57303592

Bit of a flop. Chinese millennials not interested in increasing their procreation rates - too many other pressures on young people in China and little support for families with children.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/may/31/chinese-couples-react-to-three-child-policy

[bull....]

Bit of a flop. Chinese millennials not interested in increasing their procreation rates - too many other pressures on young people in China and little support for families with children.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/may/31/chinese-couples-react-to-three-child-policy

agree it wont increase the birth rate. so a declining population in china will impact commodity consumption as well long term.

[see weed]

agree it wont increase the birth rate. so a declining population in china will impact commodity consumption as well long term.
China is allowing 3 babies per couple. But it will take at least 9 months for anything to show.

[davflaws]

China is allowing 3 babies per couple. But it will take at least 9 months for anything to show.
Can show at 3, 4 or 5 months - almost always by 6.

[BlackPeter]

China is allowing 3 babies per couple. But it will take at least 9 months for anything to show.

New Zealand allows an unlimited number of babies per couple. Does this mean that we are suffering (or enjoying) an ongoing baby avalanche? Does this mean that we need all the A2 IF for us? Not at all. As a country we are not even able to keep our population stable given our depressingly low reproduction rate, and neither are the Chinese.

Just lifting or increasing the official baby cap per couple means zilch. There is no incentive in China for couples to produce more children and to be frank - if you look at their (as well as our) population pyramid - too many of their couples are already too old to increase their reproduction rate, even if if they wanted to ...

[Balance]

China scrapped its decades-old one-child policy in 2016, replacing it with a two-child limit which has failed to lead to a sustained upsurge in births. The cost of raising children in cities has deterred many Chinese couples.

So why would a three children or 10 children policy have d as by effect when the two child policy since 2017 has done nothing to increase number of births?

Singapore has gone from a one child policy to ‘have 3 or more’ if you can afford it - and number of births there have kept declining. What does this tell us?

[Blue Skies]

China scrapped its decades-old one-child policy in 2016, replacing it with a two-child limit which has failed to lead to a sustained upsurge in births. The cost of raising children in cities has deterred many Chinese couples.

So why would a three children or 10 children policy have d as by effect when the two child policy since 2017 has done nothing to increase number of births?

Singapore has gone from a one child policy to ‘have 3 or more’ if you can afford it - and number of births there have kept declining. What does this tell us?


Apart from declining fertility rates, apparently children raised as a sole child are more likely to go on to have a single child as adults, as thats the norm' for them.
Think govt's in many western countries are looking at providing incentives to reverse declining birth rates now.
However, 12 million babies last year in China alone = a massive market to reach, & demand for high quality easily absorbed protein with all the essential amino acids ( e.g. milk ) and without completely decimating to extinction world fish stocks, expected to accelerate hugely in coming decades.

[Baa_Baa]

China scrapped its decades-old one-child policy in 2016, replacing it with a two-child limit which has failed to lead to a sustained upsurge in births. The cost of raising children in cities has deterred many Chinese couples.

You should really attribute where you plagiarise quotes from the media, shouldn't you? That is from BBC, word for word.

There is no correlation between China birth rates from 2016 to-date with A2 Milk IF sales and market share in China (China label or CBEC) - other than a negative correlation where A2 has grown sales and market share, in the face of declining birth rates. I expect that will continue.

[Balance]

You should really attribute where you plagiarise quotes from the media, shouldn't you? That is from BBC, word for word.

There is no correlation between China birth rates from 2016 to-date with A2 Milk IF sales and market share in China (China label or CBEC) - other than a negative correlation where A2 has grown sales and market share, in the face of declining birth rates. I expect that will continue.

Well, reality caught up with ATM in 2020/2021.

[Baa_Baa]

Well, reality caught up with ATM in 2020/2021.

Yes indeed, Covid reality (not declining birth rates) that shutdown their informal channel and with it sales. Subsequently they've uncovered other issues related to covid-effects, as evidenced by multiple downgrades .. there's no secret there and the 1H21 is clear about Bortolussi's plan, as was the results call. I think declining birth rates are the least of their worries based on historical growth in spite of declining birth rates.

[Leftfield]

There is no correlation between China birth rates from 2016 to-date with A2 Milk IF sales and market share in China (China label or CBEC) - other than a negative correlation where A2 has grown sales and market share, in the face of declining birth rates. I expect that will continue.

Well said Baa Baa.

[BlackPeter]

...

There is no correlation between China birth rates from 2016 to-date with A2 Milk IF sales and market share in China (China label or CBEC) - other than a negative correlation where A2 has grown sales and market share, in the face of declining birth rates. I expect that will continue.


Well said Baa Baa.

I agree - however, market disagrees. Both SML as well as ATM did rise after the announcement of the three child policy - i.e. market thinks that we three are wrong.

Don't they say the market is always right? :confused:

[winner69]

I agree - however, market disagrees. Both SML as well as ATM did rise after the announcement of the three child policy - i.e. market thinks that we three are wrong.

Don't they say the market is always right? :confused:

C’mon Peter .....you don’t really think that was the reason the A2 and Synlait went up do you?

[Panda-NZ-]

I agree - however, market disagrees. Both SML as well as ATM did rise after the announcement of the three child policy - i.e. market thinks that we three are wrong.

Don't they say the market is always right? :confused:

The customer is always right, the market is like bipolar betty.

Most things went up after a worldwide pandemic disrupting every supply chain.

The conclusion we can draw: we should have pandemics more often?

[winner69]

Grant Davies at Hamilton Hindin Greene was quoted in the media as saying it would be “drawing a long bow” to attribute the share price rise to those Chinese developments

[Leftfield]

I agree - however, market disagrees. Both SML as well as ATM did rise after the announcement of the three child policy - i.e. market thinks that we three are wrong.
Don't they say the market is always right? :confused:

Nah market just saying that the end of the ATM world isn't nigh, and the sky didn't fall on us........despite all the doom and gloom on this thread over possible impending court action.

[Balance]

I agree - however, market disagrees. Both SML as well as ATM did rise after the announcement of the three child policy - i.e. market thinks that we three are wrong.

Don't they say the market is always right? :confused:

BUBS ASX went up 20%+ yesterday. Must be something else - nothing to do with China.

[dobby41]

C’mon Peter .....you don’t really think that was the reason the A2 and Synlait went up do you?

Why did they go up?

[winner69]

Why did they go up?

Followed Synlait up one guru said .....same guru said Synlait went up because they raised farm gate price (and a bright outlook for dairy )

But probably A2 went up because more punters thought it a good buy than those who thought it a dog ....things like Chinese birth rates, dairy prices etc etc etc are just day to day noise and a distraction ....even a class action made the price go up

[Blue Skies]

Why did they go up?

According to some stockbrokers, bargain hunters starting to get interested.

[Master98]

Followed Synlait up one guru said .....same guru said Synlait went up because they raised farm gate price (and a bright outlook for dairy )

But probably A2 went up because more punters thought it a good buy than those who thought it a dog ....things like Chinese birth rates, dairy prices etc etc etc are just day to day noise and a distraction ....even a class action made the price go up
sharemarket always irrational.

[Leftfield]

According to some stockbrokers, bargain hunters starting to get interested.

According to HC guru Hoots, a tentative bottom may be forming. That said, ATM may track sideways till next results/announcement. Here's Hoots TA FYI. (Nice upside gaps noted.)

12567

Disc - Holding not adding.

[porkandpuha]

According to HC guru Hoots, a tentative bottom may be forming. That said, ATM may track sideways till next results/announcement. Here's Hoots TA FYI. (Nice upside gaps noted.)

12567

Disc - Holding not adding.

I'm no chartist, but it looks like the same formation was happening just prior to the 2nd of the 5 white boxes?

[winner69]

I'm no chartist, but it looks like the same formation was happening just prior to the 2nd of the 5 white boxes?

‘Chartists’ draw lines to suit their story

I would have punt in bottom channel line as well and said still trading in that channel and could bounce off the top channel line and ghead to a new low.

[Leftfield]

‘Chartists’ draw lines to suit their story
I would have punt in bottom channel line as well and said still trading in that channel and could bounce off the top channel line and ghead to a new low.

Current PE around 14 probably tempting some... but maybe best to wait for a more pronounced uptrend (and more positive news.)

[causecelebre]

I'm no chartist, but it looks like the same formation was happening just prior to the 2nd of the 5 white boxes?

Aside from the double bottom. Perhaps some are trading the +/- 70% chance it will get to to 6.80ish. Some might argue there was also a tweezer on the weekly

[dreamcatcher]

News from the Land of Shorters

‘Send a strong message’: Senator calls for ASIC to take harder line on activist short sellers (theage.com.au) (https://www.theage.com.au/business/markets/send-a-strong-message-senator-calls-for-asic-to-take-harder-line-on-activist-short-sellers-20210602-p57xhk.html)

[winner69]

Pity A2 share price not doing as well as Synlait’s ...that’s up more than 20% on last weeks low post that dreadful downgrade

A2 up 10% in same period

Synlait the milk sector star.

[BlackPeter]

Pity A2 share price not doing as well as Synlait’s ...that’s up more than 20% on last weeks low post that dreadful downgrade

A2 up 10% in same period

Synlait the milk sector star.

Do dead starlets bounce?

While Synlait sells to various suppliers at low margins (competing with Fonterra) - their only big margin customer is A2 (and at times whoever buys the Lactoferrin, but that market is patchy ...). I guess they are at this stage basically linked at the hip with A2M and see no reason whey they should do better than A2M, unless market puts big hopes on this still secret non diary customer who is supposed to materialize at some stage over the next handful of years ...

[Leftfield]

Has China's trade war with Australia ended up with China shooting itself in the foot?

Interesting ABC article here. (https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-06-07/how-beijing-shot-itself-in-the-foot-with-its-trade-war/100194386)

[Beagle]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/greg-smith-a2-milk-when-market-darlings-turn-to-custard/UWLEE4CQM6OVLEAM5JVLWMQDFI/

Long road back for ATM.

[bull....]

i dont think a2 are even on pinduoduo , so makes ya wonder about all that marketing spend

[Master98]

i dont think a2 are even on pinduoduo , so makes ya wonder about all that marketing spend
Since trading update already three big players reduced their holdings, are they washing their cards or just like rats jumping off sinking boat? from short term the picture for ATM really not good, they have to spend millions to destory old stocks, re-build unofficial channels, and marketings.

[Leftfield]

Some would say that investors continually adjusting their portfolios up or down based on TA and FA signals is merely business as usual.

[aperitif]

12584 1258312585

See three pics above

[BlackPeter]

Nice pictures. Do you want to share with us where and when they have been taken?

[Master98]

12584 1258312585

See three pics above
just remind you, A2 major profit come from unoffical channels which sell their engish label IF, profit from chinese label IF which sold on local china market is much much less.

[bull....]

News that British multinational consumer goods giant Reckitt Benckiser Group will take a £2.5 billion ($4.57 billion) hit on the sale of its struggling baby formula business in China is not a good sign for The a2 Milk Company. (https://www.afr.com/companies/manufacturing/the-a2-milk-company-s-fall-from-grace-continues-20210517-p57sni)

https://www.afr.com/companies/manufacturing/a2-milk-s-rival-sells-its-struggling-china-baby-formula-unit-20210608-p57z0t

[silu]

News that British multinational consumer goods giant Reckitt Benckiser Group will take a £2.5 billion ($4.57 billion) hit on the sale of its struggling baby formula business in China is not a good sign for The a2 Milk Company. (https://www.afr.com/companies/manufacturing/the-a2-milk-company-s-fall-from-grace-continues-20210517-p57sni)

https://www.afr.com/companies/manufacturing/a2-milk-s-rival-sells-its-struggling-china-baby-formula-unit-20210608-p57z0t

God I'm glad I closed out my position in this. It would need to do a 95% from current levels to get back to the price when I sold. I wonder how many, like I did, held on for too long because we felt a kinship with a company that made us a lot of money.

[Leftfield]

You could also say that the Reckett Benckiser Group's Chinese business model is vastly different from A2M's and the impending sale could be good news for ATM.

In the current T-Mall promotion A2 currently ranked 4th.

12587

( As usual DYOR and take care ..... this result may be a skewed by 'discounting' and 'lower margins'.... time will tell.)

[Balance]

Something about the tide going out and someone is caught without swimwear?

https://www.sharecafe.com.au/2021/05/18/when-the-hype-disappears-and-fundamentals-reappear/

As the case of A2 Milk shows, ‘poster child’ stocks which can generate a lot of hype and capture the headlines for a time are no substitute for quality businesses like Brambles, which possess a sustainable competitive advantage, recurring earnings, and capable management which can grow the business over the longer term, and which are trading at a reasonable price.

[Balance]

You could also say that the Reckett Benckiser Group's Chinese business model is vastly different from A2M's and the impending sale could be good news for ATM.


By Broker News

With Reckitt’s having divested of its China infant formula business, Citi evaluates the read-through for a2 Milk.

Were a2 to be priced at the same enterpise value implied by the sales price, it would be worth $12.06 per share. However, the broker believes a2’s earnings are materially different now compared to 2020, given diagou disruption and lack of local China manufacturing.

A recovery in diagou to 50% of FY20 would value a2 at $6.54, but investment appeal is lower, Citi suggests, given:

no local production,

reliance on a single product

and

lower market share.

Sell and $5.85 target retained.

[see weed]

Something about the tide going out and someone is caught without swimwear?

https://www.sharecafe.com.au/2021/05/18/when-the-hype-disappears-and-fundamentals-reappear/

As the case of A2 Milk shows, ‘poster child’ stocks which can generate a lot of hype and capture the headlines for a time are no substitute for quality businesses like Brambles, which possess a sustainable competitive advantage, recurring earnings, and capable management which can grow the business over the longer term, and which are trading at a reasonable price.
Very interesting graphs. A2 is a 3 year chart and brambles is a 25 year chart. If I invested, which I did, $50,000 in a2 in 2015, on todays closing price would equal $597,000. $50,000 in Brambles in 2015 at $2.60 odd, I will let you do the maths. Sold my last 20,000 lot a few weeks back a bit over $105,000 profit.

[Master98]

https://www.raskmedia.com.au/2021/06/10/a2-milk-asxa2m-shares-may-face-more-heat/
"A2 milk shares may face more heat"

[Blue Skies]

Seems to be quite solid support forming around 600 mark, possibly driven by bargain hunters creeping in.

Here's a question i'ld be interested in what posters think.

In 5 years time, which would have been the better investment at todays prices & why ?
Lets say just for example $1million invested in ATM or Auckland investment property?

[see weed]

Seems to be quite solid support forming around 600 mark, possibly driven by bargain hunters creeping in.

Here's a question i'ld be interested in what posters think.

In 5 years time, which would have been the better investment at todays prices & why ?
Lets say just for example $1million invested in ATM or Auckland investment property?
$1,000,000 property at 10% a year = $1,500,000 in 5 years. $1,000,000 ATM shares at $6.10c= 163,934 shares. The ATM shares would have to go up $3.05c to $9.15c to equal the $500,000 property gain, which could take any amount of years the way a2 is going at the moment. If things picked up and got on track again a2 could gain a few dollars in a number of years. Or you could divide the mill into 5 and invest in 5 different companies. Good night.

[tommy_d]

$1,000,000 property at 10% a year = $1,500,000 in 5 years. $1,000,000 ATM shares at $6.10c= 163,934 shares. The ATM shares would have to go up $3.05c to $9.15c to equal the $500,000 property gain, which could take any amount of years the way a2 is going at the moment. If things picked up and got on track again a2 could gain a few dollars in a number of years. Or you could divide the mill into 5 and invest in 5 different companies. Good night.

I'm struggling with the maths in the post above a little. The small error only reinforces the point being made though :)

property increase at 10% a year. I assume after five years that means an increase multiplier of 1.1 to the power of five, so 1.6105. Seems to check out.
year 0 = 1,000,000
year 1 = 1,000,000*1.1 = 1,100,000
year 2 = 1,100,000*1.1 = 1,210,000
year 3 = 1,210,000*1.1 = 1,331,000
year 4 = 1,331,000*1.1 = 1,464,100
year 5 = 1,464,100*1.1 = 1,610,510

so the ATM share price would have to increase even more than the stated 50%. The thing about the house though is that you might be able to buy it using leverage, so that gain could be made on an initial outlay of $100,000 if you can get a 10% lvr. Which is pretty much the maths that has been rewarding those using debt to buy houses, leverage is king, well, maybe heir to compounding interest, but close...

[see weed]

I'm struggling with the maths in the post above a little. The small error only reinforces the point being made though :)

property increase at 10% a year. I assume after five years that means an increase multiplier of 1.1 to the power of five, so 1.6105. Seems to check out.
year 0 = 1,000,000
year 1 = 1,000,000*1.1 = 1,100,000
year 2 = 1,100,000*1.1 = 1,210,000
year 3 = 1,210,000*1.1 = 1,331,000
year 4 = 1,331,000*1.1 = 1,464,100
year 5 = 1,464,100*1.1 = 1,610,510

so the ATM share price would have to increase even more than the stated 50%. The thing about the house though is that you might be able to buy it using leverage, so that gain could be made on an initial outlay of $100,000 if you can get a 10% lvr. Which is pretty much the maths that has been rewarding those using debt to buy houses, leverage is king, well, maybe heir to compounding interest, but close...
Yes you are right, I forgot to compound the yearly interest. So the new figure is a2 would have to go up $3.725c plus the $6.10c = $9.825c to match the investment property gain. Am talking basic, if you had a mill $ in the bank without getting a mortgage and bought a property or a2 shares. If mortgage interest rates happened to go up in the next 5 years it might slow the rising property market from 10% year to 7% year. Time will tell, and hope mortgage rates don't go up too much for the struggling. When I had a mortgage they were in the 12% to 15% range and always had at least 40% deposit years ago.

[see weed]

I'm struggling with the maths in the post above a little. The small error only reinforces the point being made though <img src="images/smilies/001_smile.gif" border="0" alt="" title="Smile_2" smilieid="17" class="inlineimg"><br>
<br>
property increase at 10% a year. I assume after five years that means an increase multiplier of 1.1 to the power of five, so 1.6105. Seems to check out. <br>
year 0 = 1,000,000<br>
year 1 = 1,000,000*1.1 = 1,100,000<br>
year 2 = 1,100,000*1.1 = 1,210,000<br>
year 3 = 1,210,000*1.1 = 1,331,000<br>
year 4 = 1,331,000*1.1 = 1,464,100<br>
year 5 = 1,464,100*1.1 = 1,610,510<br>
<br>
so the ATM share price would have to increase even more than the stated 50%. The thing about the house though is that you might be able to buy it using leverage, so that gain could be made on an initial outlay of $100,000 if you can get a 10% lvr. Which is pretty much the maths that has been rewarding those using debt to buy houses, leverage is king, well, maybe heir to compounding interest, but close...<br>
Post put in twice accidentally.

[Blue Skies]

$1,000,000 property at 10% a year = $1,500,000 in 5 years. $1,000,000 ATM shares at $6.10c= 163,934 shares. The ATM shares would have to go up $3.05c to $9.15c to equal the $500,000 property gain, which could take any amount of years the way a2 is going at the moment. If things picked up and got on track again a2 could gain a few dollars in a number of years. Or you could divide the mill into 5 and invest in 5 different companies. Good night.



Interested you see/base figures on house price growth increasing at 10% year which seems to have been general consensus.
However, since govt policy changes, Westpac revised their forecast from +10% year to prices falling in 2022 & 23.
Added to new govt policies, coming inflation & rising mortgage rates, competition from Aust both salaries & housing, a steeply declining NZ birth rate which the market doesn't seem to be accounting for yet, & falling migration, not sure that 10% is still such a sure bet.

On other hand demand for protein expected to double by 2050, the NZ (A2 sourced) brand excellent compared to alternative industrialised factory herds fed on soy & antibiotics, & once distribution channels resume &/or alternatives & new markets established, could see ATM SP doubling in 5 years time. Would still not be much more than half it's peak.

Hope this not too off topic but sometimes comparing very diff investments $ for $ helps lend new perspective.

[see weed]

Interested you see/base figures on house price growth increasing at 10% year which seems to have been general consensus.
However, since govt policy changes, Westpac revised their forecast from +10% year to prices falling in 2022 & 23.
Added to new govt policies, coming inflation & rising mortgage rates, competition from Aust both salaries & housing, a steeply declining NZ birth rate which the market doesn't seem to be accounting for yet, & falling migration, not sure that 10% is still such a sure bet.

On other hand demand for protein expected to double by 2050, the NZ (A2 sourced) brand excellent compared to alternative industrialised factory herds fed on soy & antibiotics, & once distribution channels resume &/or alternatives & new markets established, could see ATM SP doubling in 5 years time. Would still not be much more than half it's peak.

Hope this not too off topic but sometimes comparing very diff investments $ for $ helps lend new perspective.
I agree with what you are saying. I only used 10% as an example. We could use 5% as an example, then a2 would only have to go up about $1.86c which is half of $3.72c. Am going to have a rest now with all these figures whirling around in my head.

[sb9]

Things are up in a hurry here over past few days, 6.50 NZ and 6.05 AU as I type.

[BlackPeter]

Things are up in a hurry here over past few days, 6.50 NZ and 6.05 AU as I type.
12609

Hmm - looks like an unbroken downtrend to me. This jitter ways below the MA 50 is just what any old downtrending stocks happens to do.

What do you see?

12609

Any reason why you think ATM's fortunes should change? I guess they neither replaced the board nor the CEO and neither did they clean out their clogged up Daigou channel, didn't they? Same old, same old ...

[sb9]

12609

Hmm - looks like an unbroken downtrend to me. This jitter ways below the MA 50 is just what any old downtrending stocks happens to do.

What do you see?

12609

Any reason why you think ATM's fortunes should change? I guess they neither replaced the board nor the CEO and neither did they clean out their clogged up Daigou channel, didn't they? Same old, same old ...

Sorry but my crystal ball isn't working. Until we hear from the company of any material update, we are all speculating and in the meantime big boys with their research would've got ahead of the curve. That's all I can think of.

[Baa_Baa]

Hmm - looks like an unbroken downtrend to me. This jitter ways below the MA 50 is just what any old downtrending stocks happens to do.

What do you see?

Yes, if you are using the 50MA as a yardstick it's still a way to go at about $7. Short term though there are various resistances being broken, depending on whether the chart is log-scale or arithmetic.

A2M imo is better for charting due to the huge volumes. The A2M arithmetic scale chart had a 9/21 MA crossover a few days ago and 9/21 EMA crossover is very close now (traders will like that). It has also broken up through the long term downtrend line, question will be whether it holds.

I think for A2, the question at the moment is not about good news, the SP is already $1 up off it's low, it's whether there is any more bad news to come.

[Gerald]

12609

Hmm - looks like an unbroken downtrend to me. This jitter ways below the MA 50 is just what any old downtrending stocks happens to do.

What do you see?

12609

Any reason why you think ATM's fortunes should change? I guess they neither replaced the board nor the CEO and neither did they clean out their clogged up Daigou channel, didn't they? Same old, same old ...

12610

I got a clear break above the downtrend line which is probably causing the movement today.

[winner69]

If it closes above 641 today it would have broken through the upper channel line on a linear regression chart (linear regression point plus +0.3 STDEV)

Some say that's a buy as it will go on and form a new channel (upward) - others say its a sell as probably fall back into the prevailing trend

BP would stay still in a strong down trend and needs to break through 800 as first sign down trend is over (like break the ongoing lower highs and lower lows)

[Biscuit]

If it closes above 641 today it would have broken through the upper channel line on a linear regression chart (linear regression point plus +0.3 STDEV)

Some say that's a buy as it will go on and form a new channel (upward) - others say its a sell as probably fall back into the prevailing trend

BP would stay still in a strong down trend and needs to break through 800 as first sign down trend is over (like break the ongoing lower highs and lower lows)

That's why TA is such a flexible tool for traders.

[winner69]

That's why TA is such a flexible tool for traders.

Yeah ...look at it and see what you want to see eh.

[BlackPeter]

If it closes above 641 today it would have broken through the upper channel line on a linear regression chart (linear regression point plus +0.3 STDEV)

Some say that's a buy as it will go on and form a new channel (upward) - others say its a sell as probably fall back into the prevailing trend

BP would stay still in a strong down trend and needs to break through 800 as first sign down trend is over (like break the ongoing lower highs and lower lows)

We know that you like to make things up, but please - speak for yourself ;): No need to make up things for other posters ...

[winner69]

We know that you like to make things up, but please - speak for yourself ;): No need to make up things for other posters ...

Sorry your honour ... should have said something like ‘BP said it looks “like an unbroken downtrend” (quote) And I agree with that view’ .....and then state what my interpretation of a downtrend is without ascribing that knowledge to you.

Please accept my apologies.

[porkandpuha]

Things are up in a hurry here over past few days, 6.50 NZ and 6.05 AU as I type.

Probably explains why the thread went so quiet for 3 days :eek2:

[nztx]

Probably explains why the thread went so quiet for 3 days :eek2:


Aha .. never waste a good rise .. even if it's a quiet one ;)

[Hoop]

Triggered a few short term buy signals, as it tested the gap resistance level this morning but there wasn't enough buyer momentum to break through..this created a bear signal which at this moment is being played out by a sudden drop (started just minutes before the Ozzie opening).

The result is a failed first attempt to breakthrough the first resistance level.

Disc: On my watchlist

[JohnnyTheHorse]

Triggered a few short term buy signals, as it tested the gap resistance level this morning but there wasn't enough buyer momentum to break through..this created a bear signal which at this moment is being played out by a sudden drop (started just minutes before the Ozzie opening).

The result is a failed first attempt to breakthrough the first resistance level.

Disc: On my watchlist

The price action largely looked like short covering as stops were hit so I wouldn't trust this rally. I shorted heavily into yesterdays gap up.

Looking bigger picture this is still a potential weekly bear flag and we are just looking for a weekly lower high. Whilst I day trade this heavily, I will not be making any swing entry until an update from the company removes uncertainty. The risk of downside gaps on this is just too big.

Technically speaking, for me anyway, the medium term downtrend will end if we get a weekly trend change and a break above the weekly 12EMA. Would just be looking to sell on a monthly lower high though as long term downtrend (monthly) would still be in place... multi timeframe analysis is crucial.

[Maxtrade]

Triggered a few short term buy signals, as it tested the gap resistance level this morning but there wasn't enough buyer momentum to break through..this created a bear signal which at this moment is being played out by a sudden drop (started just minutes before the Ozzie opening).

The result is a failed first attempt to breakthrough the first resistance level.

Disc: On my watchlist

Please help us new bees. What is the first resistance level currently that you see.

Also how do you see and calculate where the resistance levels , gap resistance etc is to know where buy signals are.


Stupidly bought way over our means when the SP was almost at its last peak then just saw our savings wither away to almost 70% gone :(
Any advice on how to try to recover some back off this is much appreciate.

Thanks heaps in advance.

[BlackPeter]

Please help us new bees. What is the first resistance level currently that you see.

Also how do you see and calculate where the resistance levels , gap resistance etc is to know where buy signals are.


Stupidly bought way over our means when the SP was almost at its last peak then just saw our savings wither away to almost 70% gone :(
Any advice on how to try to recover some back off this is much appreciate.

Thanks heaps in advance.

Please accept my condolences for your loss. I recon most of us went through a similar experience one time or another - my biggest loss was when I was holding CBL shares (roughly 10% of my NZ share portfolio) and the company got shut down by the FMA. Apparently some crooks on board. 100% of my CBL investment gone, but who knows - the courts might return some day some cents in the dollar.

Just mentioning that to show you that the investment game is inherently dangerous, never a good idea to put all eggs in one basket.

Where to go from here? I don't want to discourage you, but it is hard to make money with trading, even if you understand your trade. So - if you want to get some of your money back with trading ... good luck, but I recommend you first learn more than just how to establish the first resistance level.

If you want to make money with investing - this is easier, but you should not put your expectations too high. I am targeting for my investments a long term average of 8% (after tax) using a quite diversified portfolio - including some hedges (which hold the earnings back in good years, but protect them in bad years). So far I reached my long term targets (despite losses like CBL, which I have fully written off - s. above). Obviously - it would take this way many years to recover a 70% loss like the one you are describing. Ouch.

If I would be you I probably would first take my remaining money out of A2. Sure - they might go up again, but than they might not. Something like playing in the casino, not good to do with money you can't afford to (or don't want to) lose. Will they reach their previous hype driven heights? I doubt it.

Pick a diversified portfolio out of solid companies with good boards (no, not A2 ;) ): and watch them growing. Want to find these solid companies? That's the ones who have proven over time that they can make money, they are typically less discussed in these forums and normally (over long periods of time) considered to be too dear. Easy to find :):

[aperitif]

Tmall repurchase rankings over 618(so far).

Aptamil ~42,000 cans(single can)

A2 ~18,000 boxes(6 cans per box)

1261212613

This is now a “fat pitch” disc buying

[aperitif]

Added another ~2600 stores in China too.

[Hoop]

Please help us new bees. What is the first resistance level currently that you see.

Also how do you see and calculate where the resistance levels , gap resistance etc is to know where buy signals are.


Stupidly bought way over our means when the SP was almost at its last peak then just saw our savings wither away to almost 70% gone :(
Any advice on how to try to recover some back off this is much appreciate.

Thanks heaps in advance.


Hi Maxtrade.
My condolences too...However the action at the time was not stupid..With hindsight and the current $6.31 (down -11c) yes it turned out to be a poor buy in entry point..However with hindsight and a $30 or $40 price tag you wouldn't be thinking stupid would you?
I'm a Chartist and charting often uses the TA Discipline it comes part and parcel with each other as using charts it is easy to see the trading behaviour of people and institutions..So ,,the chart below is the history up to the present of ATM trading behaviour...To chart the price accurately into the future is impossible, but TA can offer odds for or against using the past data and analyzing it with the present behaviour...A change of trading behaviour is nearly always a signal that something is about to change and TA picks up this up..As you can see in the chart ATM is in a severe downtrend and any change of behavour has not lasted..Lack of buying demand (low volume or no increase in volume) shows that minimal optimistic buyers failed to create any decent rally and the change in behaviour quickly fizzled out..
Now at the moment we have another change of trading behaviour and TA charts shows this one looks a little stronger, however it too seems to be fizzling out, but it hasn't yet been confirmed so I'm still watching with interest...

The chart below is very messy but I drew it with you (Maxtrade) in mind. The chart only focuses on the use of S&R lines (support & resistance) and the indicators RSI DMI below reflect the state of price in relation to the S&R lines..

When I drew this chart I noticed that the buying/selling behaviour was very TA friendly..With a high volume trading stock TA tends to be more accurate as trading programs automatically rely on buy and sell trigger points and active traders tend to rely on trading behaviours to actively enter or exit...
Also of interest on the chart is the downtrend behaviour..There is an exit rule "sell when the price drops below the second support level from when you bought in"...It seems this rule is being used and the every second support break sees a flood of sellers causing a gap down.
Chartists have observed over the years that history can repeat itself and the opposite (odds better than random) can also happen...So chartists keep a close eye on gap zones and we tend to get rather exited when the stock price gets close to a gap zone and we think of market physics could play out..For the layman or non chartists think gap zones as air pockets and as the plane enters one it suddenly drops...if there is air pocket around then there is air turbulence in the similar height area further along and so we can expect the plane to hit an updraft and the plane suddenly elevates..
We chartists call this sudden elevation within the gap zone as closing the gap...
As you can see on the ATM chart there are many gaps that can be closed so for that market physics reasoning we chartists keep an eye on the price as it approaches a gap zone..
I'm not saying it will happen now, ATM can fail yet again and as I said in my past post it wouldn't surprise me if the price fell to $6.00..
At the time of the post with price failing after nearly reaching $7.00 that $6.00 figure looked a bit ridiculous but on the chart with the downtrend still operating, unless that trend ends $6.00 and below must happen...This is why I said buying into a downtrend is an idiotic move...TA says wait until that trend breaks and confirmed..

When to sell out and when is it too late to sell out... When I was a newbie (so long ago I had a pet pterodactyl) I was very conservative and waited before I bought in thinking that was the safest time to invest..when actual fact it was the most dangerous of investor strategies..Looking at my record I was buying in near the top and selling out near the bottom...
Even now some 48 years later I still fall in love with a stock and fail to sell out (ignore my TA discipline) and more often than not that has cost me dearly....We never learn!!! there is always some sort of media advice out there that you shouldn't listen to but you do as it says nice things about your pet poodle which helps to reinforce your belief.
The most stressful thing about having shares is failing to sell out (very hard thing to do) and being trapped in a stock. You now face a dilemma with no right or wrong answer..Sell and risk the stock reversing of stay in and risk further loses...With all dilemmas I can't give you any advice what to do...
One thing though being a strict TA discipline investor that TA discipline will never let you get into a dilemma situation. There are other types of investors that use the second support break rule , trailing stops, etc..The one thing that any experienced investor has irrespective of what discipline they use is they all have an exit strategy after they purchase something..
Hope this post helps....

PS Sharetrader won't let post a chart (web glitch) on this post

[Hoop]

With reference to this chart..
A couple of other rules (of thumb)..refrain from buying when the price is near to resistance lines (Don't gamble)
Buy when the price bounces off support lines..Buying when price is near support lines is better (lesser risk) than buying near resistance lines.
Remember a broken resistance line becomes a support line.

12615

[see weed]

Please help us new bees. What is the first resistance level currently that you see.

Also how do you see and calculate where the resistance levels , gap resistance etc is to know where buy signals are.


Stupidly bought way over our means when the SP was almost at its last peak then just saw our savings wither away to almost 70% gone :(
Any advice on how to try to recover some back off this is much appreciate.

Thanks heaps in advance.
Welcome to the club. If you are a share trader then all your losses and brokerage is tax deductible. If you sell them they are gone. If you wait till they go up again then sell them. Will not be as big a loss.

[aquaman]

Welcome to the club. If you are a share trader then all your losses and brokerage is tax deductible. If you sell them they are gone. If you wait till they go up again then sell them. Will not be as big a loss.

That stars the questions...when are you a trader and when are you not? If you are a trader then you would pay tax when you sell at a profit? Im sure these have been asked many times prior.

[BlackPeter]

That stars the questions...when are you a trader and when are you not? If you are a trader then you would pay tax when you sell at a profit? Im sure these have been asked many times prior.

Here is a bit of discussion on the topic:
https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?8887-At-what-point-does-a-Investor-become-a-Trader-from-a-tax-perspective

and here as well - newer, but less useful content:
https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?11829-What-makes-a-Trader-v-Investor

Having said that - there might be still better threads around, and as far as I know none of the contributors is a tax expert - i.e. treat these all as unqualified personal opinions, not as tax advise.

Better talk with your tax accountant or the IRD, but whatever you do - lets not start in the ATM thread another discussion about what a trader and what an investor is - shall we?

[Absolute144]

better to spend 10% of your money chasing 100% gains than to spend 100% of your money chasing 10% gains. That said you might like to "double down" if and only if you think the shareprice will recover somewhat.

[Absolute144]

Looks like A2 milk shortsells for 16th june was 199,707 shares.

[Snow Leopard]

....
Any advice on how to try to recover some back off this is much appreciate.

Thanks heaps in advance.

I may be interpreting this incorrectly but anyway let me say this (again).

Some people seem to have this fixation that if they lose money on a particular stock that they must make it back on the very same stock.

This is a VERY BAD mindset for investors or traders, and needs to be overcome.

You possibly learn a lesson from your failed purchase but going forward you look for the best opportunities in the market based on your criteria and that is how you how you successfully make you money back and then some.

[Biscuit]

I may be interpreting this incorrectly but anyway let me say this (again).

Some people seem to have this fixation that if they lose money on a particular stock that they must make it back on the very same stock.

This is a VERY BAD mindset for investors or traders, and needs to be overcome.

You possibly learn a lesson from your failed purchase but going forward you look for the best opportunities in the market based on your criteria and that is how you how you successfully make you money back and then some.


That is the truth. Emotionally I think we feel that if we make the money back on the same stock, somehow that negates the original loss. If we get the money back on the same stock, we didn't really lose money in the first place. To make good decisions we have to stand aside from our emotions. Losing money on a trade means you made a wrong decision, it does not mean you are an idiot. (however, it also doesn't mean that you aren't an idiot).

[RupertBear]

I may be interpreting this incorrectly but anyway let me say this (again).

Some people seem to have this fixation that if they lose money on a particular stock that they must make it back on the very same stock.


This is a VERY BAD mindset for investors or traders, and needs to be overcome.

You possibly learn a lesson from your failed purchase but going forward you look for the best opportunities in the market based on your criteria and that is how you how you successfully make you money back and then some.

Thanks for that Snow Leopard, I have fallen into that mindset/trap recently with ATM and a few wee pesky Aussie shares. Looking for better opportunities in the market to make your money back is sage advice :) That being said I find it EXTREMELY difficult to sell for a loss :(

[Maxtrade]

Thanks for that Snow Leopard, I have fallen into that mindset/trap recently with ATM and a few wee pesky Aussie shares. Looking for better opportunities in the market to make your money back is sage advice :) That being said I find it EXTREMELY difficult to sell for a loss :(

Likewise. Makes a lot of sense. Just hard to do.

[Maxtrade]

Please accept my condolences for your loss. I recon most of us went through a similar experience one time or another - my biggest loss was when I was holding CBL shares (roughly 10% of my NZ share portfolio) and the company got shut down by the FMA. Apparently some crooks on board. 100% of my CBL investment gone, but who knows - the courts might return some day some cents in the dollar.

Just mentioning that to show you that the investment game is inherently dangerous, never a good idea to put all eggs in one basket.

Where to go from here? I don't want to discourage you, but it is hard to make money with trading, even if you understand your trade. So - if you want to get some of your money back with trading ... good luck, but I recommend you first learn more than just how to establish the first resistance level.

If you want to make money with investing - this is easier, but you should not put your expectations too high. I am targeting for my investments a long term average of 8% (after tax) using a quite diversified portfolio - including some hedges (which hold the earnings back in good years, but protect them in bad years). So far I reached my long term targets (despite losses like CBL, which I have fully written off - s. above). Obviously - it would take this way many years to recover a 70% loss like the one you are describing. Ouch.

If I would be you I probably would first take my remaining money out of A2. Sure - they might go up again, but than they might not. Something like playing in the casino, not good to do with money you can't afford to (or don't want to) lose. Will they reach their previous hype driven heights? I doubt it.

Pick a diversified portfolio out of solid companies with good boards (no, not A2 ;) ): and watch them growing. Want to find these solid companies? That's the ones who have proven over time that they can make money, they are typically less discussed in these forums and normally (over long periods of time) considered to be too dear. Easy to find :):

Thank you for solid advice

[Maxtrade]

Hi Maxtrade.
My condolences too...However the action at the time was not stupid..With hindsight and the current $6.31 (down -11c) yes it turned out to be a poor buy in entry point..However with hindsight and a $30 or $40 price tag you wouldn't be thinking stupid would you?
I'm a Chartist and charting often uses the TA Discipline it comes part and parcel with each other as using charts it is easy to see the trading behaviour of people and institutions..So ,,the chart below is the history up to the present of ATM trading behaviour...To chart the price accurately into the future is impossible, but TA can offer odds for or against using the past data and analyzing it with the present behaviour...A change of trading behaviour is nearly always a signal that something is about to change and TA picks up this up..As you can see in the chart ATM is in a severe downtrend and any change of behavour has not lasted..Lack of buying demand (low volume or no increase in volume) shows that minimal optimistic buyers failed to create any decent rally and the change in behaviour quickly fizzled out..
Now at the moment we have another change of trading behaviour and TA charts shows this one looks a little stronger, however it too seems to be fizzling out, but it hasn't yet been confirmed so I'm still watching with interest...

The chart below is very messy but I drew it with you (Maxtrade) in mind. The chart only focuses on the use of S&R lines (support & resistance) and the indicators RSI DMI below reflect the state of price in relation to the S&R lines..

When I drew this chart I noticed that the buying/selling behaviour was very TA friendly..With a high volume trading stock TA tends to be more accurate as trading programs automatically rely on buy and sell trigger points and active traders tend to rely on trading behaviours to actively enter or exit...
Also of interest on the chart is the downtrend behaviour..There is an exit rule "sell when the price drops below the second support level from when you bought in"...It seems this rule is being used and the every second support break sees a flood of sellers causing a gap down.
Chartists have observed over the years that history can repeat itself and the opposite (odds better than random) can also happen...So chartists keep a close eye on gap zones and we tend to get rather exited when the stock price gets close to a gap zone and we think of market physics could play out..For the layman or non chartists think gap zones as air pockets and as the plane enters one it suddenly drops...if there is air pocket around then there is air turbulence in the similar height area further along and so we can expect the plane to hit an updraft and the plane suddenly elevates..
We chartists call this sudden elevation within the gap zone as closing the gap...
As you can see on the ATM chart there are many gaps that can be closed so for that market physics reasoning we chartists keep an eye on the price as it approaches a gap zone..
I'm not saying it will happen now, ATM can fail yet again and as I said in my past post it wouldn't surprise me if the price fell to $6.00..
At the time of the post with price failing after nearly reaching $7.00 that $6.00 figure looked a bit ridiculous but on the chart with the downtrend still operating, unless that trend ends $6.00 and below must happen...This is why I said buying into a downtrend is an idiotic move...TA says wait until that trend breaks and confirmed..

When to sell out and when is it too late to sell out... When I was a newbie (so long ago I had a pet pterodactyl) I was very conservative and waited before I bought in thinking that was the safest time to invest..when actual fact it was the most dangerous of investor strategies..Looking at my record I was buying in near the top and selling out near the bottom...
Even now some 48 years later I still fall in love with a stock and fail to sell out (ignore my TA discipline) and more often than not that has cost me dearly....We never learn!!! there is always some sort of media advice out there that you shouldn't listen to but you do as it says nice things about your pet poodle which helps to reinforce your belief.
The most stressful thing about having shares is failing to sell out (very hard thing to do) and being trapped in a stock. You now face a dilemma with no right or wrong answer..Sell and risk the stock reversing of stay in and risk further loses...With all dilemmas I can't give you any advice what to do...
One thing though being a strict TA discipline investor that TA discipline will never let you get into a dilemma situation. There are other types of investors that use the second support break rule , trailing stops, etc..The one thing that any experienced investor has irrespective of what discipline they use is they all have an exit strategy after they purchase something..
Hope this post helps....

PS Sharetrader won't let post a chart (web glitch) on this post

Thank you very much for taking the time to help provide some insight Hoop. Very interesting and informative. I will look into TA further. Did you create the chart below? Or where can I access/ find such charts for different shares to try to apply TA logic?

[Hoop]

Thank you very much for taking the time to help provide some insight Hoop. Very interesting and informative. I will look into TA further. Did you create the chart below? Or where can I access/ find such charts for different shares to try to apply TA logic?

I use Big Charts (https://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=NZ%3Afbu&insttype=&time=8&freq=1)to post on this forum..Big Charts is free and easy to navigate. As with most freebies there are limitations, however it's good enough to learn and play with.

[Snow Leopard]

...Losing money on a trade means you made a wrong decision, it does not mean you are an idiot. (however, it also doesn't mean that you aren't an idiot).

At the risk of this becoming the trader psychology thread.

If you bought for the right reasons and you sold for the right reasons then whether you made a profit or not is immaterial.

Good buys can turn bad and though you did nothing wrong you are losing money.

Just make sure that you are making a good bit more than you lose in the long run.

[dreamcatcher]

Today is 18th June the final day of China's 618 Shopping Extravaganza

https://www.scmp.com/tech/big-tech/article/3136081/chinas-618-shopping-festival-has-become-latest-battlefield-countrys

[Ruby]

Hi folks,interested to hear where people think this stock is headed...Beagle,Balance ??

[Balance]

Hi folks,interested to hear where people think this stock is headed...Beagle,Balance ??

Not really interested in short term sp direction until strategy reset is announced and implications are assessed.

Stock will trend meanwhile to traders' whims & fancies around broader industry issues and company specific developments like law suits.

[Ruby]

Agreed,thanks

[dreamcatcher]

China data analysts Syntun estimate all 618 sales at 578.5 billion yuan ($89.4 billion), up 26.5% over 2020 (https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/china-618-shopping-festival-e-commerce-platforms-sales-report-by-syntun-the-gmv-of-578-5-billion-yuan-301315855.html).

https://www.forbes.com/sites/franklavin/2021/06/21/chinas-annual-618-shopping-event-shows-consumers-are-back/?sh=156c4d1365ae

[Leftfield]

China data analysts Syntun estimate all 618 sales at 578.5 billion yuan ($89.4 billion), up 26.5% over 2020 (https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/china-618-shopping-festival-e-commerce-platforms-sales-report-by-syntun-the-gmv-of-578-5-billion-yuan-301315855.html).
https://www.forbes.com/sites/franklavin/2021/06/21/chinas-annual-618-shopping-event-shows-consumers-are-back/?sh=156c4d1365ae

Encouraging that A2 held it's fourth ranking in a very competitive field.

12653

Not getting excited yet.... as much depends on the next update.

[dobby41]

Interesting article
"With its shares down over 50% year to date has The a2 Milk Company become of interest for value investors"
https://www.goodreturns.co.nz/article/976518814/with-its-shares-down-over-50-year-to-date-has-the-a2-milk-company-become-of-interest-for-value-investors.html

[Beagle]

Hi folks,interested to hear where people think this stock is headed...Beagle,Balance ??12663
For my money fundamental analysis is almost useless at this point as nobody can reliably predict what future earnings will be, certainly not the company itself with its profoundly shocking track record of downgrades. This is a highly volatile, uncertain and risky situation. Although there are some TA indicators that give some emerging encouragement (break up through the 30 day MA, red line) the shares are still in a confirmed downtrend and I wouldn't consider touching them until there is a clear break up through the 100 day MA, (the dark line).

I have a VERY low level of confidence in management's abilities and its clear their inventory management and reporting systems need a total overhaul. In terms of fundamental analysis for what its worth, I think the shares are priced as though a strong recovery in sales is almost certain...and i don't think it is all that certain. I have far too much cash in my portfolio allocation but notwithstanding this I am not touching them. Actions speak louder than words ;)

[Arbroath]

"I think the shares are priced as though a strong recovery in sales is almost certain"

I'm not saying the situation can't get worse, perhaps much worse, but that is a laughable statement. Imho a strong recovery in sales this year would see them back above $10 by Xmas. Could depend on what you mean by strong of course but do you really think the shares would be at $6.50 still by Xmas if they can get sales growing strongly again in the next 6 months?

You are right that the situation is risky but I don't think the market, after 4 downgrades, is pricing much in now. A fifth downgrade though would still kneecap them another 20% or so...

[BlackPeter]

"I think the shares are priced as though a strong recovery in sales is almost certain"

I'm not saying the situation can't get worse, perhaps much worse, but that is a laughable statement. Imho a strong recovery in sales this year would see them back above $10 by Xmas. Could depend on what you mean by strong of course but do you really think the shares would be at $6.50 still by Xmas if they can get sales growing strongly again in the next 6 months?

You are right that the situation is risky but I don't think the market, after 4 downgrades, is pricing much in now. A fifth downgrade though would still kneecap them another 20% or so...

Shares are currently (at AU$6.10) trading at a forward PE of 27.5 or on a backward PE of 44.2; The only way to justify the current share price is if you assume (and price in) significant (and sustainable) earnings growth.

Will they manage to turn the cart around and achieve this amazing (and already priced in) growth?

I have no idea ... but I can't see why you call beagles statement "laughable". He just stated the plain obvious.

[Biscuit]

Great update:

"... unique 'End to End' business model with around 350 people
employed in markets outside of New Zealand to ensure that (we are) better
connected to customers and consumers in market and (are) able to adapt at speed
to meet local market changes and needs. A particular strength of this model
has been evidenced in Mainland China and Asia where (we have) been able to
offset the impact of the challenges in the Daigou market in Australia and New
Zealand. This model also enables the business to continue to perform strongly
even with travel and tourism being so restricted..."

Oh, no, hang on, that was Comvita.

[Beagle]

Shares are currently (at AU$6.10) trading at a forward PE of 27.5 or on a backward PE of 44.2; The only way to justify the current share price is if you assume (and price in) significant (and sustainable) earnings growth.

Will they manage to turn the cart around and achieve this amazing (and already priced in) growth?

I have no idea ... but I can't see why you call beagles statement "laughable". He just stated the plain obvious.

Exactly BP...a strong recovery in sales is already baked into the current share price like its an absolute certainty, (when maybe it isn't).
I sold 3 years and 3 months ago at ~ $13...what would I know lol

[BlackPeter]

Great update:

"... unique 'End to End' business model with around 350 people
employed in markets outside of New Zealand to ensure that (we are) better
connected to customers and consumers in market and (are) able to adapt at speed
to meet local market changes and needs. A particular strength of this model
has been evidenced in Mainland China and Asia where (we have) been able to
offset the impact of the challenges in the Daigou market in Australia and New
Zealand. This model also enables the business to continue to perform strongly
even with travel and tourism being so restricted..."

Oh, no, hang on, that was Comvita.

Yep, I thought I'd seen that announcement coming from a different company :): But yes - you are right, it is possible to do it, one just needs the right management forming and implementing the right strategy.

Can't be that hard, can it?

[Arbroath]

Shares are currently (at AU$6.10) trading at a forward PE of 27.5 or on a backward PE of 44.2; The only way to justify the current share price is if you assume (and price in) significant (and sustainable) earnings growth.

Will they manage to turn the cart around and achieve this amazing (and already priced in) growth?

I have no idea ... but I can't see why you call beagles statement "laughable". He just stated the plain obvious.

Couple of points BP:

- the backward PE is irrelevant because it has $120m of stock tipped down the drain in it. If there's a "strong recovery in sales" how much more stock do you see them writing off in FY22?
- FY22 PE of around 27x does not factor in a strong recovery in sales...with consensus only recovering less then half the c. $500m sales deterioration in FY21 v FY20.

Maybe this is all a disagreement about the word strong. For me the market is cautiously pricing in only a mild c. 10-15% sales recovery in FY22. A strong recovery for me is more like a 25% sales recovery to $1.5b+ for FY22.

It is all very fluid because they either deliver a decent recovery or there are more systemic issues in the business than poor stock channel management.