View Full Version : ATM - A2 Milk Corporation Limited
Beagle
27-10-2021, 05:21 PM
Geeze .. Investor Day looks like it went well .. kind of like a cup of cold tea ;)
I was thinking more like being forced to drink 2 liters of cod liver oil lol
Balance
27-10-2021, 05:24 PM
I was thinking more like being forced to drink 2 liters of cod liver oil lol
With wet lamingtons afterwards?
I was thinking more like being forced to drink 2 liters of cod liver oil lol
I was trying to be kind .. other ways of describing things had crossed my mind :)
I guess the Aussie Shorters get to have another party :)
winner69
27-10-2021, 06:25 PM
The rumour was the strategy update was going to be a boomer and share price went up about 20%
The fact was the update wasn’t up to much and gave most punters no comfort …..and share price falls 12%
Seems to happen a lot
flyinglizard
27-10-2021, 06:32 PM
The strategy review has been not met the expectations. Good thing is the current management team starts to do a serious job. However, ATM has turned itself into a matured company, not a high growth company anymore. The forward PE and PB is too high and SP will be heading south again. $2-$3 price range is reasonable for ATM.
winner69
27-10-2021, 06:47 PM
Mataura Valley financials now included in A2
MVM going to be a drag on the A2 bottom line for quite a while ….as they say ”Plans are being developed for the plant to reach profitability during FY26 or earlier”
The strategy review has been not met the expectations. Good thing is the current management team starts to do a serious job. However, ATM has turned itself into a matured company, not a high growth company anymore. The forward PE and PB is too high and SP will be heading south again. $2-$3 price range is reasonable for ATM.
Yes. Agree. What does a primary industry co's trade at these days? Should be on par with PGW, SEK, FSF etc
Low teens P/E
Beagle
27-10-2021, 07:06 PM
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/a2-milk-investor-day-reveals-a-more-modest-growth-path/JEPMGJUARY223IWW3NZMPMFQU4/ Paywalled.
Sums up the whole much lower growth and margins reality that now confronts shareholders.
There is no question whatsoever in my mind that this situation is a dramatic transition to a much lower growth and margin reality and is not yet reflected in the forward metrics even after today's correction. 17 seems a fair multiple for the risk implicit with the changed strategy and on 17 cps forecast that's fair value $2.89
Someone please PM me to wake me up when it goes under $3.
flyinglizard
27-10-2021, 07:06 PM
May try to sell inventory which is less than 6 month through discount platform, like KTT and PDD? with 30%-40% discount rate? Still making money or break even. This is better than just directly write-off. It is an ongoing issue, have to find a way out.
ATM needs a case study on Feihe, how this domestic company markets itself so successfully in recent years. Throw money on marketing is ATM future strategy, but in what more efficient ways, in what specific areas or sectors.
The future challenge is very hard for ATM, pressure on sales price, higher shipping cost, higher interest rate, higher labour cost, higher inflation rate on raw materials, increasing marketing expense and staff wage expense (staff head is increasing over 5 years). Pretty confident this company is matured.
Balance
27-10-2021, 07:43 PM
May try to sell inventory which is less than 6 month through discount platform, like KTT and PDD? with 30%-40% discount rate? Still making money or break even. This is better than just directly write-off. It is an ongoing issue, have to find a way out.
ATM needs a case study on Feihe, how this domestic company markets itself so successfully in recent years. Throw money on marketing is ATM future strategy, but in what more efficient ways, in what specific areas or sectors.
The future challenge is very hard for ATM, pressure on sales price, higher shipping cost, higher interest rate, higher labour cost, higher inflation rate on raw materials, increasing marketing expense and staff wage expense (staff head is increasing over 5 years). Pretty confident this company is matured.
Can’t do that - A2 is a premium brand and discounting it would bugger up the brand.
JohnnyTheHorse
27-10-2021, 09:14 PM
Wow what a day, another great day of volatility to trade.
A few quick technical observations:
- The previous few weeks trading put A2 into a technical weekly and monthly uptrend, essentially ending the long term downtrend
- The monthly uptrend confirmation was not convincing (red flag). It was too close to being a double top, and I often see breakouts that don't end up following through just turn into bear flags. Swing traders should have been taking at least some profit here
- On balance, investors and traders got this one wrong. Nightmare for swing traders
- The risk of holding through a planned announcement has been shown today. The news risk is too significant for me, hence why I have been largely only day trading A2 (which occasional 2-3 day swings)
- In my opinion it is likely to keep bleeding, but hold previous lows (at least in the short term)
On a fundamental level, that MVM acquisition looks like bit of shambles. Not profitable until F26 and producing WMP instead of IMF in the short term?? An investment Theo and his team would have been proud of.
winner69
30-10-2021, 03:07 PM
From BusinessDesk
This guru analyst who once loved A2 sort of gets it now-
Extract:
The broker offered a few thoughts on the company: "the theme that the margin profile for this business has now fundamentally changed was, for me, the biggest message it was giving - a lot of the day seemed to be about emphasising there are good paths forward for this company re either different price points in existing markets, different ways to approach existing channels to market or potentially different products to sell into markets, but that they all come with a good chunk of cost attached - the product doesn't sell itself anymore and the days of the 30% ebitda margin target (that analysts thought was too low) are well gone."
.
Balance
02-11-2021, 09:57 AM
Looks like the class action is on its way :
https://businessdesk.co.nz/article/primary-sector/been-there-done-that-a2s-class-action-opponent-has-previous-form
"A 2019 court victory involving misleading company statements will be a key precedent for class action specialists Slater and Gordon Lawyers when they take on A2 Milk over the dairy company’s share price slumps between August last year and May."
The precedent set was Bellamys :
https://www.slatergordon.com.au/class-actions/current-class-actions/bellamys
Looks like the class action is on its way :
https://businessdesk.co.nz/article/primary-sector/been-there-done-that-a2s-class-action-opponent-has-previous-form
"A 2019 court victory involving misleading company statements will be a key precedent for class action specialists Slater and Gordon Lawyers when they take on A2 Milk over the dairy company’s share price slumps between August last year and May."
The precedent set was Bellamys :
https://www.slatergordon.com.au/class-actions/current-class-actions/bellamys
Bellamys case was settled out of court. There were only two cases ever in Australia that ended up in front of a judge and both lost by shareholders.
Balance
02-11-2021, 11:09 AM
Bellamys case was settled out of court. There were only two cases ever in Australia that ended up in front of a judge and both lost by shareholders.
The thrust of the article is that ATM & Bellamys both involve alleged breach of continuous disclosure, and consequential losses suffered by investors and shareholders due to the breaches.
There are definite similarities and if I had bought shares in ATM during the defined period & suffered losses, I would certainly be joining the class action.
The thrust of the article is that ATM & Bellamys both involve alleged breach of continuous disclosure, and consequential losses suffered by investors and shareholders due to the breaches.
There are definite similarities and if I had bought shares in ATM during the defined period & suffered losses, I would certainly be joining the class action.
Those two cases that failed in court also were very similar maybe even more so. The reason why Bellamy’s settled the case is because Mengniu did not want to buy a company with lawsuit on its hands. It will be similar if Nestle decides to acquire ATM
Sideshow Bob
03-11-2021, 01:43 PM
Tough fight for international brands: Chinese parents now see local formulas as ‘most trusted source’ – a2MC survey (nutraingredients-asia.com) (https://www.nutraingredients-asia.com/Article/2021/11/02/Tough-fight-for-international-brands-Chinese-parents-now-see-local-formulas-as-most-trusted-source-a2MC-survey?utm_source=newsletter_daily&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=03-Nov-2021&cid=DM984637&bid=1754823712)
aperitif
04-11-2021, 02:59 PM
Goldman Sachs now up to 8.2%, combined UBS and GS now own circa 15%….
13179
couta1
04-11-2021, 03:33 PM
Goldman Sachs now up to 8.2%, combined UBS and GS now own circa 15%….
13179 Is that a good thing being the players they are? anyway fundamentals havent changed for the better just yet, lets see the next set of results and decide.
dobby41
04-11-2021, 04:38 PM
Is that a good thing being the players they are? anyway fundamentals havent changed for the better just yet, lets see the next set of results and decide.
Yes - you'd think that they need a run or 2 on the board to see how they are going.
dreamcatcher
04-11-2021, 11:48 PM
11/11 and 12/12 outcome will be an important gauge
Balance
08-11-2021, 12:10 PM
3 reasons to avoid ATM :
https://www.raskmedia.com.au/2021/11/05/3-reasons-id-be-avoiding-a2-milk-asxa2m-shares/
Master98
08-11-2021, 01:32 PM
https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20211104006398/en/MSCI-November-Semi-Annual-Index-Review-Announcement-Scheduled-for-November-11-2021
Semi-Annual MSCI index review due on 11/11, question is if ATM will still remain inside MSCI index.
aperitif
08-11-2021, 02:13 PM
https://h5.ecdataway.com/wx/report-live?category=power_milk&month=2021-11-06
http://www.myguancha.com/post/20410.html
aperitif
11-11-2021, 05:42 PM
https://www.sohu.com/a/500212473_100243785
dreamcatcher
11-11-2021, 07:56 PM
3 reasons to avoid ATM :
https://www.raskmedia.com.au/2021/11/05/3-reasons-id-be-avoiding-a2-milk-asxa2m-shares/
Interestingly within the same article Mr Jensen wrote "I’m quite bearish on the A2 Milk share price. But greener pastures may be on the horizon. Check out why these analysts rate the A1 Milk share price a BUY"
"According to reporting by the Australian Financial Review (https://www.afr.com/companies/manufacturing/a2-milk-no-use-crying-over-split-market-20210930-p58w3v), some investors are now thinking that the A2 Milk share price may well be good value now.
The newspaper noted that fund manager Perpetual Limited (ASX: PPT (https://www.raskmedia.com.au/asx/ppt)) has been building a position in the business as it fell to approximately $5.50 per share"
https://www.raskmedia.com.au/2021/10/04/analysts-rate-the-a2-milk-asxa2m-share-price-as-a-buy/
Nov 17th AGM probably get an update on 11/11 Single Day sales
couta1
11-11-2021, 09:03 PM
Interestingly within the same article Mr Jensen wrote "I’m quite bearish on the A2 Milk share price. But greener pastures may be on the horizon. Check out why these analysts rate the A1 Milk share price a BUY"
"According to reporting by the Australian Financial Review (https://www.afr.com/companies/manufacturing/a2-milk-no-use-crying-over-split-market-20210930-p58w3v), some investors are now thinking that the A2 Milk share price may well be good value now.
The newspaper noted that fund manager Perpetual Limited (ASX: PPT (https://www.raskmedia.com.au/asx/ppt)) has been building a position in the business as it fell to approximately $5.50 per share"
https://www.raskmedia.com.au/2021/10/04/analysts-rate-the-a2-milk-asxa2m-share-price-as-a-buy/
Nov 17th AGM probably get an update on 11/11 Single Day sales You would hope they can offer up something even slightly positive at the AGM, that last report was utterly abysmal.
dreamcatcher
11-11-2021, 09:51 PM
@aperitif Great find many thanks.......
Translation: After entering November and 3 days of fierce competition Aptamil still maintained its top position with sales leading the second place by a large margin. In general, imported brands account for the majority of the 20 brands on the list and a2's performance is outstanding, jumping from the fourth place in the October list to the second place. From the beginning of the pre-sale on October 20, Feihe had strong momentum until the end of the first phase, catching up with Royal Mei Su Jiaer, maintaining the third place steadily closely following the second-ranked a2. Yili and Banner, who were not on the list in October, successfully entered the top 20 at the end of the first stage.
Very true couta1
Balance
12-11-2021, 08:47 AM
@aperitif Great find many thanks.......
Translation: After entering November and 3 days of fierce competition Aptamil still maintained its top position with sales leading the second place by a large margin. In general, imported brands account for the majority of the 20 brands on the list and a2's performance is outstanding, jumping from the fourth place in the October list to the second place. From the beginning of the pre-sale on October 20, Feihe had strong momentum until the end of the first phase, catching up with Royal Mei Su Jiaer, maintaining the third place steadily closely following the second-ranked a2. Yili and Banner, who were not on the list in October, successfully entered the top 20 at the end of the first stage.
Very true couta1
Same 11/11 discussion every year and as usual, it means bugger all to ATM's underlying performance.
https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?2318-ATM-A2-Milk-Corporation-Limited/page1788
Meanwhile, the good news is that Bell Porter keeps plugging its BUY recommendation on ATM :
https://www.fool.com.au/2021/11/09/is-the-a2-milk-asxa2m-share-price-dirt-cheap/
Bell Potter continues to believe that the A2 Milk share price is not reflective of its turnaround potential. Particularly given its belief that the company could double its earnings by FY 2026.
It explained: “There is no change to our Buy rating. We see the scope for EPS to double by FY26e, if A2M can execute on the China offline expansion strategy, while recovering 50% of the lost sales (from FY20-21) in English label IMF. Exiting the loss making US assets or navigating a turnaround at the MVM asset would likely accelerate this turnaround. We do not see the current share price as reflecting this potential.”
All in all, the broker appears to see this as a buying opportunity for investors.
dreamcatcher
12-11-2021, 10:04 AM
Same 11/11 discussion every year and as usual, it means bugger all to ATM's underlying performance.
All in all, the broker appears to see this as a buying opportunity for investors.
These Shopping Promotions same period yearly and potentially alter companies sales performance as one Auckland based company 'Grin Natural' saw its sales go through the roof ahead of the Singles' Day holiday and sold 115,000 toothpastes in 115 seconds in China during an online event ...
Apologies if you find these discussions meaningless or boring.
Balance
12-11-2021, 10:07 AM
These Shopping Promotions same period yearly and potentially alter companies sales performance as one Auckland based company 'Grin Natural' saw its sales go through the roof ahead of the Singles' Day holiday and sold 115,000 toothpastes in 115 seconds in China during an online event ...
Apologies if you find these discussions meaningless or boring.
As I wrote, same discussion in Nov 2020 - how great ATM did etc etc - and ATM put in the worse performance in overall sales growth (backwards) ever in its history!
The hype is over - it’s down to performance.
JohnnyTheHorse
12-11-2021, 11:04 AM
Price plummeting - what's the news?
dreamcatcher
12-11-2021, 11:45 AM
Price plummeting - what's the news?
Probably MSCI index rebalance but suspect you already knew that......
Master98
12-11-2021, 11:53 AM
A2 milk deleted from MSCI index NZ.
"MSCI NEW ZEALAND INDEX Deletions THE A2 MILK COMPANY"
Maxtrade
12-11-2021, 12:07 PM
A2 milk deleted from MSCI index NZ.
"MSCI NEW ZEALAND INDEX Deletions THE A2 MILK COMPANY"
Dropped down to 5.9 then rapidly recovered back to 6.3 gain. Seems to be some serious conflicting thoughts out there with ATM currently. Some die hard believers holding the SP up even amongst more continued bad news. Quite surprising really that we haven't seen SP drop back below previous lows already.
dreamcatcher
12-11-2021, 12:11 PM
I believe Instos own majority shares in a2 so MSCI was expected but this may help
Singles’ Day shopping festival posted record sales of 540.3 billion yuan ($84.5 billion),
couta1
12-11-2021, 12:12 PM
Dropped down to 5.9 then rapidly recovered back to 6.3 gain. Seems to be some serious conflicting thoughts out there with ATM currently. Some die hard believers holding the SP up even amongst more continued bad news. Quite surprising really that we haven't seen SP drop back below previous lows already. Air NZ kinda thinking in play here?
dreamcatcher
12-11-2021, 02:34 PM
Scheduled to hit retailers January 2022
BOULDER, Colo., Oct. 26, 2021 /PRNewswire/ -- The a2 Milk Company™ and The Hershey Company today announced the upcoming release of co-branded Hershey's/The a2 Milk Company chocolate milk, marking Hershey's first partnership with a premium milk company. The new Hershey's a2 Milk® will pair America's #1 milk chocolate brand with one of America's fastest-growing premium milk brands to provide a natural chocolate milk that uniquely combines the taste, nutrition and all-family appeal that should drive premium milk sales.
https://mma.prnewswire.com/media/1668215/The_a2_Milk_Company_Hersheys_Co_Branded_Chocolate_ Milk.jpg?w=500 (https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/a2-milk--hershey-to-release-co-branded-chocolate-milk-301408638.html#)
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/a2-milk--hershey-to-release-co-branded-chocolate-milk-301408638.html
Beagle
12-11-2021, 09:20 PM
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/market-close-blow-for-a2-milk-as-it-falls-out-of-msci-world-index/6ICJRI4TL5NXD2MWVOYH75ZBHY/ Paywalled
Headline - Blow for a2 Milk as it falls out of MSCI World Index
Excerpt :-
Because of this year's share price drop and its lower market capitalisation (now $4.62 billion), a2 Milk will be removed from the MSCI New Zealand Index on November 30, and it won't be replaced....One analyst said passive funds will need to sell up to 80 million a2 Milk shares before the end of the month as they rebalance their holdings.
Good luck to shareholders, you're going to need it :eek2:
flyinglizard
12-11-2021, 09:57 PM
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/market-close-blow-for-a2-milk-as-it-falls-out-of-msci-world-index/6ICJRI4TL5NXD2MWVOYH75ZBHY/ Paywalled
Headline - Blow for a2 Milk as it falls out of MSCI World Index
Excerpt :-
Because of this year's share price drop and its lower market capitalisation (now $4.62 billion), a2 Milk will be removed from the MSCI New Zealand Index on November 30, and it won't be replaced....One analyst said passive funds will need to sell up to 80 million a2 Milk shares before the end of the month as they rebalance their holdings.
Good luck to shareholders, you're going to need it :eek2:
Mr. B, this is big. more than $ 80m x $6.22 = approx. $500m dollars sell down. Plus sharks (shorters) are coming due to the blood from A2.
X-men
12-11-2021, 10:14 PM
One analyst said passive funds will need to sell up to 80 million a2 Milk shares before the end of the month as they rebalance their holdings. The removal was a surprise but there was a lot of short covering and those investors will be relieved.
Not sure why need luck..shorts are covering
X-men
12-11-2021, 10:28 PM
The a2 Milk Company chief executive David Bortolussi declined to comment on its 11/11 performance, since he plans to update investors at next Wednesday’s annual meeting. It is believed that its a2 Platinum tins were ranked No 4 on the selling platform among baby formula players before the event officially ended. This is better than last year’s No 5 spot.
winner69
16-11-2021, 06:08 AM
Oakley having issues
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-11-15/oatly-falls-as-covid-supply-chain-prompt-sales-forecast-cut
An A2 competitor?
Sideshow Bob
16-11-2021, 08:33 AM
Oakley having issues
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-11-15/oatly-falls-as-covid-supply-chain-prompt-sales-forecast-cut
An A2 competitor?
Here is one commentators take on oat juice.
13219
Sideshow Bob
17-11-2021, 02:05 PM
There is growth and opportunities out there.....
Infant liquid milk in China: Nestle strives to meet Gen-Z's demands for convenience and immunity benefits (nutraingredients-asia.com) (https://www.nutraingredients-asia.com/Article/2021/11/16/Infant-liquid-milk-in-China-Nestle-strives-to-meet-Gen-Z-s-demands-for-convenience-and-immunity-benefits?utm_source=newsletter_daily&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=17-Nov-2021&cid=DM985919&bid=1768451703)
couta1
17-11-2021, 05:11 PM
Looks like this is basically a mature low growth company now, time they started paying a dividend in the near future rather than stashing piles of cash.
Balance
17-11-2021, 06:38 PM
A dreadfully sad state of affair for the previous darling of the market - it’s AGM today and not a single posting from the broken hearted shareholders & ex shareholders!
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/hopeful-a2-milk-shareholders-leave-empty-handed-after-agm/O7HLAWDRWHOERNBDUROTSLTLL4/
A big yawn with the usual ‘great underlying business’ rhubarb rhubarb hogwash Groundhog Day!
As for 11/11 - ‘Chief executive David Bortolussi said English-label infant formula sales during the 11/11 online sales period were down on last year, but with improved market pricing across cross-border e-commerce (CBEC) platforms and reseller channels, he said.’ Try and make sense of that comment!
whatsup
17-11-2021, 06:46 PM
Looks like this is basically a mature low growth company now, time they started paying a dividend in the near future rather than stashing piles of cash.
cout, get real, having that cash cushion was what has given the current S Hers comfort.
Balance
17-11-2021, 06:53 PM
Looks like this is basically a mature low growth company now, time they started paying a dividend in the near future rather than stashing piles of cash.
Don’t forget the hundreds of millions of dollars which may be required to settle the class actions?
Ouch!
couta1
17-11-2021, 07:37 PM
Don’t forget the hundreds of millions of dollars which may be required to settle the class actions?
Ouch! Will probably settle out of court for a much lesser sum should it gain any traction.
dreamcatcher
17-11-2021, 09:02 PM
Don’t forget the hundreds of millions of dollars which may be required to settle the class actions?
Ouch!
Heard this blah blah rhubarb on the SML Pokeno thread a years back hundreds of millions of dollars in your 'Dreams' I said then and I say now blah blah rhubarb class action will go nowhere. Better success with class action against shorters.
Wow mate you are so perfect you never Gloat always Humble must be difficult going past a mirror without constantly admiring yourself
Here is one company where I see zero reasons to buy shares or remain a shareholder. Ditched my shares at a loss and haven’t looked back.
aperitif
19-11-2021, 12:12 AM
https://h5.ecdataway.com/wx/report1111?category=power_milk
11/11 Tmall Data for those interested
ralph
21-11-2021, 12:14 PM
https://h5.ecdataway.com/wx/report1111?category=power_milk
11/11 Tmall Data for those interested
A2 number 1 hot seller ,ehmm an interesting aperitif
LEMON
24-11-2021, 01:00 PM
October 2021, The a2 Milk Company Limited (“the Company”) announced it had been notified that group proceedings had been filed in the Supreme Court of Victoria by Slater & Gordon Lawyers, which named the Company as the defendant.
On 21 October 2021, the Company announced that it was aware of reports in the media that a potential class action against the Company was being investigated by Shine Lawyers.
Today the Company was served with a representative proceeding filed in the Supreme Court of Victoria by Shine Lawyers, which names the Company as the defendant. The proceeding relates to the period from 19 August 2020 to 9 May 2021 and makes allegations which are broadly similar to those advanced by the class action proceeding filed by Slater and Gordon Lawyers on 6 October 2021.
The Company considers that it has at all times complied with its disclosure obligations, denies any liability and will vigorously defend the proceedings.
Maxtrade
24-11-2021, 02:46 PM
October 2021, The a2 Milk Company Limited (“the Company”) announced it had been notified that group proceedings had been filed in the Supreme Court of Victoria by Slater & Gordon Lawyers, which named the Company as the defendant.
On 21 October 2021, the Company announced that it was aware of reports in the media that a potential class action against the Company was being investigated by Shine Lawyers.
Today the Company was served with a representative proceeding filed in the Supreme Court of Victoria by Shine Lawyers, which names the Company as the defendant. The proceeding relates to the period from 19 August 2020 to 9 May 2021 and makes allegations which are broadly similar to those advanced by the class action proceeding filed by Slater and Gordon Lawyers on 6 October 2021.
The Company considers that it has at all times complied with its disclosure obligations, denies any liability and will vigorously defend the proceedings.
SP hasn't reacted much yet on a negative downwards trend. Maybe yet to happen as the class actions gain momentum.
winner69
29-11-2021, 12:52 PM
most stocks down today but ZTM doing OK ....even in the green
Some always said A2 not affected by covid disruptions
couta1
29-11-2021, 01:02 PM
most stocks down today but ZTM doing OK ....even in the green
Some always said A2 not affected by covid disruptions Nah not affected, only down from $21 to $6. Lol
Sideshow Bob
29-11-2021, 02:00 PM
Some always said A2 not affected by covid disruptions
Who are these "some" W69?? Or have you just been over-indulging on the A2-brand kool-aid milk??
carrom74
30-11-2021, 03:31 PM
Looking at the past week's daily volumes... pretty solid..today still 1-1/2 hour trading time left almost 3 million shares traded at the NZX so far.ASX as usual 5-7M on any given day
Balance
30-11-2021, 04:52 PM
Here comes the MSCI sell down ….
Beagle
30-11-2021, 04:55 PM
Wow, 44.6m shares on the match volume.
Balance
30-11-2021, 04:58 PM
Wow, 44.6m shares on the match volume.
Shorts will be laughing all the way to the bank?
ronaldson
30-11-2021, 05:25 PM
Well over 50m shares ( from 743m on issue ) traded at the close - a phenomenon rarely experienced on the NZX! Where to now for the share price?
Arbroath
30-11-2021, 05:37 PM
Well over 50m shares ( from 743m on issue ) traded at the close - a phenomenon rarely experienced on the NZX! Where to now for the share price?
Probably make a short term recovery now all the index selling is out of the way
dreamcatcher
30-11-2021, 06:19 PM
Shorts decreasing since early Nov maybe today's 69m ATM shares trading @ huge 9c discount and aussie 7c (5m) an indication game plans changing.
If bored the BB team could take up sewing to help keep you occupied
Balance
30-11-2021, 06:25 PM
Shorts decreasing since early Nov maybe today's 69m ATM shares trading @ huge 9c discount and aussie 7c (5m) an indication game plans changing.
If bored the BB team could take up sewing to help keep you occupied
Still brooding of how you caught '4 earnings downgrades" instead of $30 ATM sp dreams?
Should have woken up after the first downgrade but definitely by the second downgrade.
Must be the A2 in the rancid milk you are drinking?
dreamcatcher
30-11-2021, 06:42 PM
Still brooding of how you caught '4 earnings downgrades" instead of $30 ATM sp dreams?
Should have woken up after the first downgrade but definitely by the second downgrade.
Must be the A2 in the rancid milk you are drinking?
Haha Not at all bud its you brooding how I missed 4 downgrades and thank you for your concern.
I'm actually too mean to buy a2 milk and drink straight basic milk probably the same milk you drink
Balance
30-11-2021, 07:15 PM
Haha Not at all bud its you brooding how I missed 4 downgrades and thank you for your concern.
I'm actually too mean to buy a2 milk and drink straight basic milk probably the same milk you drink
That’s sad as your losses on ATM would have bought you all the A2 you could ever drink.
dreamcatcher
30-11-2021, 08:52 PM
That’s sad as your losses on ATM would have bought you all the A2 you could ever drink.
Losses in your DREAMS my a2 holdings are 100% pure profit........but really no need to be sad for me.
Balance
30-11-2021, 11:58 PM
Losses in your DREAMS my a2 holdings are 100% pure profit........but really no need to be sad for me.
Yup - you are the smart one to hold a stock and see it fall from $20+ to $6.16.
Good one. :t_up:
dreamcatcher
01-12-2021, 12:58 AM
Yup - you are the smart one to hold a stock and see it fall from $20+ to $6.16.
Good one. :t_up:
Clearly you have difficulty understanding the difference between profit and loss. Maybe you think my a2 profit fell of the back of a truck?
You think insto's sold or just sold a few then accumulated and added another 73m today we all know they had plenty of bites.
Clearly you have difficulty understanding the difference between profit and loss. Maybe you think my a2 profit fell of the back of a truck?
You think insto's sold or just sold a few then accumulated and added another 73m today we all know they had plenty of bites.
Profit or Loss .. or free carry ? ;)
dreamcatcher
01-12-2021, 02:10 AM
Profit or Loss .. or free carry ? ;)
My a2 holding is 100% pure profit but could also say free carry to me meaning is the same ........
Balance
01-12-2021, 07:59 AM
Clearly you have difficulty understanding the difference between profit and loss. Maybe you think my a2 profit fell of the back of a truck?
You think insto's sold or just sold a few then accumulated and added another 73m today we all know they had plenty of bites.
Yup - just like there were plenty of bites all the way down from $20+ to $6.16 :t_up:
Profit & loss your style must work really well as ignorance is bliss.
dreamcatcher
01-12-2021, 10:16 AM
Yup - just like there were plenty of bites all the way down from $20+ to $6.16 :t_up:
Profit & loss your style must work really well as ignorance is bliss.
Doing a calculation this morning I'm not only free-held but also cash positive on a2 should ask your accountant if that's good. :t_up:
Gloat all you like maybe could discuss with your mirror guaranteed to listen
I didn't sell and still hold shocking eh..... think some people would be happy to be in same position.
Balance
01-12-2021, 10:23 AM
Doing a calculation this morning I'm not only free-held but also cash positive on a2 should ask your accountant if that's good. :t_up:
Gloat all you like maybe could discuss with your mirror guaranteed to listen
I didn't sell and still hold shocking eh..... think some people would be happy to be in same position.
Only you.
The smart ones sold at the first & second downgrades, put their funds into other stocks and watch their wealth (& profits) grow.
Maxtrade
01-12-2021, 04:16 PM
One thing we can all agree on is the previous low's have not been tested again even with the class actions, exit from MSCI, Omicron. So might be safe enough to say the low end trough has indeed since formed. The fear of SP falling away to $3.50 - $4 in previous posts might now be far less likely if proving to show resilience and support is holding @ $6 NZD even amongst this sell off and new Covid scare. That's if it does indeed hold, who knows maybe this will be the straw that breaks the camels back and it tests previous lows here forth. ATM is pure guess work these days, pretty much seems just like gambling one way or the other.
Master98
01-12-2021, 04:49 PM
One thing we can all agree on is the previous low's have not been tested again even with the class actions, exit from MSCI, Omicron. So might be safe enough to say the low end trough has indeed since formed. The fear of SP falling away to $3.50 - $4 in previous posts might now be far less likely if proving to show resilience and support is holding @ $6 NZD even amongst this sell off and new Covid scare. That's if it does indeed hold, who knows maybe this will be the straw that breaks the camels back and it tests previous lows here forth. ATM is pure guess work these days, pretty much seems just like gambling one way or the other.
sp was inflated by instos last few weeks, because they have 70m shares needed to be sold yesterday, I predict sp will be on downtrend from here( don't slam me, just guess).
Balance
01-12-2021, 08:18 PM
sp was inflated by instos last few weeks, because they have 70m shares needed to be sold yesterday, I predict sp will be on downtrend from here( don't slam me, just guess).
ATM sp fell today which is rather surprising post the 70m+ shares MSCI sell down. Normally the do should have seen a bounce today.
So you could well be right.
Maxtrade
02-12-2021, 11:32 AM
Maybe it's to premature to think the SP won't test previous lows of $5.1-$5.5 range. But seems unlikely would get into the $4's at this point. Would have expected we would have seen that happen already with such a large sell off if that was going to happen. Lower $5's still on the cards though?
Balance
03-12-2021, 05:42 PM
Maybe it's to premature to think the SP won't test previous lows of $5.1-$5.5 range. But seems unlikely would get into the $4's at this point. Would have expected we would have seen that happen already with such a large sell off if that was going to happen. Lower $5's still on the cards though?
Slip, sliding towards $5.00 as a first stop.
Increased milk solids payout announced by Fonterra bad news for the likes of ATM - increased costs at a time when their margins are already under pressure from competition.
Ouch!
Baa_Baa
03-12-2021, 06:06 PM
Who buys the A2 liquid milk from the farmers, is it the manufacturer Synlait, or the marketer ATM? Does ATM have a take or pay, or a fixed price contract with Synlait? Where is the risk or exposure held, to fluctuating farm gate milk prices? So many questions. Also noticed that A2 IF is back to premium pricing and has had a very good result in the China online sales recently.
Seemed obvious but I might've misinterpreted it, that the removal from the Index has forced the large volume selling from funds which tends to drive down the Ask to move volume. Conversely everything sold was bought.
Remember XRO when it bombed from $45 to $13 over many agonising months? ATM is a far far better company now than XRO was at the time their SP crashed and bottomed (and still is). Easy to forget, three quarters of a billion $ cash, $1.2 billion revenue, profitable, and runway to growth and markets opening up again post-covid.
Contrary to popular opinion here, I think the current SP weakness in a basing pattern which could continue for some time, is a reasonable risk / reward investment.
aperitif
03-12-2021, 06:16 PM
https://www.judgments.fedcourt.gov.au/judgments/Judgments/fca/single/2021/2021fca1515
Winning in court again…
aperitif
03-12-2021, 06:23 PM
13280
UBS note from Nov 30
aperitif
03-12-2021, 07:26 PM
https://www.lawyerly.com.au/a2-milk-wins-trade-mark-ruling-after-ip-australia-left-legitimate-uncertainty/
couta1
03-12-2021, 07:56 PM
13280
UBS note from Nov 30 Dont trust these players with a toy gun, 4 traders avg target price of $6.93 NZ more realistic if things improve.
Beagle
03-12-2021, 08:28 PM
Dont trust these players with a toy gun, 4 traders avg target price of $6.93 NZ more realistic if things improve.
Agree 100%. https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/THE-A2-MILK-COMPANY-LIMIT-11384022/financials/
Average of 7 analysts has this at 16 cps earnings next year so even at today's close @ $5.76 that's a very lofty forward PE of 36 :eek2:
aperitif
03-12-2021, 08:58 PM
Agree 100%. https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/THE-A2-MILK-COMPANY-LIMIT-11384022/financials/
Average of 7 analysts has this at 16 cps earnings next year so even at today's close @ $5.76 that's a very lofty forward PE of 36 :eek2:
But take the OCA analysts forecast as gospel. Thought you would be out enjoying freedom
Balance
07-12-2021, 10:27 AM
13280
UBS note from Nov 30
Put out a 'BUY' note and sell 10m shares :
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/ATM/384214/361109.pdf
Put out a 'BUY' note and sell 10m shares :
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/ATM/384214/361109.pdf
That is outrageous. How can they get away with that. Don't they worry about their creditability??
couta1
07-12-2021, 10:35 AM
That is outrageous. How can they get away with that. Don't they worry about their creditability?? No they don't and they have been playing these games with A2 for yrs now, the ASX and regulatory bodies just turn a blind eye to it all.
see weed
07-12-2021, 10:53 AM
Put out a 'BUY' note and sell 10m shares :
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/ATM/384214/361109.pdf
That's easy fixed. Just do the opposite to what they announce. I am not a share holder of ATM but keep a regular eye on it.
dreamcatcher
07-12-2021, 01:22 PM
19/10/21 SPH UBS NZX
SPH Notice - UBS Group AG and its related bodies corporate - NZX, New Zealand’s Exchange (https://www.nzx.com/announcements/381186)
07/12/21 SPH UBS NZX
SPH Notice – UBS Group AG and its related bodies corporate - NZX, New Zealand’s Exchange
(https://www.nzx.com/announcements/384214)
Buy
Sell
Return of Rehypothecated position
Stock borrowed
Stock returned
Swaps
Enter Into Derivative Contract
Collateral received
Maxtrade
10-12-2021, 12:50 PM
But take the OCA analysts forecast as gospel. Thought you would be out enjoying freedom
Charts not looking very good. Third trough low never a positive sign on a downtrend, staying below 200EMA, 12wk EMA, 50day EMA, fundamentally showing more downside risk than up. Some hope from investors trying to hold and see if SP can find it's way back to EMA support levels, but there's a lot of risk built into that hope. Sounds like class actions gaining momentum. Not much really to boost confidence with market share in China still. Will see if the power of positive thinking and hope can stop lower end trough breaking down to new low levels, hope so for holders, but isn't really looking that good at this point. It's hard to cut your losses sometimes, but things continue to not look favourably :/
Maxtrade
10-12-2021, 12:53 PM
No they don't and they have been playing these games with A2 for yrs now, the ASX and regulatory bodies just turn a blind eye to it all.
It is appalling they can get away with that. I'm surprised there are that many investors still seeming to be hanging in there with ATM, hope or the hard realisation of selling at a loss? Something is better than less than something though isn't it?
Balance
11-12-2021, 08:36 AM
2021 is supposed to be the year that ATM put its problems of 2020 behind, - according to Sharetrader & the brokers’ top stock picks of the year.
Alas, ATM bombed out big time!
Minus 50.70% YTD.
Looking forward to 2022 brokers’ picks next week - if ATM is not in the list, it is a good sign imo that 2022 could be a good year for the stock.
But wait for the stock to bottom out around the $4.00 mark first.
montegamontoya
11-12-2021, 09:36 AM
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-12-10/hedge-funds-ensnared-in-expansive-doj-probe-into-short-selling
It would be pleasing to see prosecutions, where warranted. A good outcome, especially for retail, even if it achieves nothing beyond throwing sunlight into the shady cess-pit of activist shorting.
I wrote to A2 a fortnight ago, asking whether they have had recent correspondance (FY20/21) from ASIC re shorting behaviour. No response.
flyinglizard
11-12-2021, 05:31 PM
China Birth Rate new low in decades
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/nov/23/chinese-birthrate-falls-to-lowest-since-1978
Balance
12-12-2021, 01:54 PM
China Birth Rate new low in decades
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/nov/23/chinese-birthrate-falls-to-lowest-since-1978
Shrinking market coupled with increased competition - margins can only go one way.
X-men
15-12-2021, 12:01 PM
White collar crime is untouchable...
winner69
18-12-2021, 02:08 PM
For what it’s worth …from Morningstar
https://www.morningstar.com.au/stocks/article/fortunes-set-to-reverse-at-a2-milk-morningsta/217610
Dassets
22-12-2021, 06:07 AM
Is this thread aware that it is illegal to send ANY dairy product especially infant formula out of NZ UNLESS To send infant formula or milk powder overseas you must:
register as an animal products exporter under the Animal Products Act 1999 or use the services of an exporter who is already registered
meet the requirements outlined in the Export Requirements for Infant Formula Products and Formulated Supplementary Foods for Young Children
meet any overseas market access requirements (OMARs) which apply, and
secure certification if official assurance is required for the destination market.
Is it the same from Australia??
winner69
10-01-2022, 06:38 PM
Will A2 have an A+ year in 2022 …jury still out
https://businessdesk.co.nz/article/primary-sector/will-a2-milk-have-an-a-year-in-2022
winner69
21-01-2022, 06:29 PM
Jeez hadn’t realised ATM had fallen so far. Todays market review says:
Infant formula exporter A2 Milk led the index lower as it fell 4.2% to an almost five-year low at $5.48.
Balance
22-01-2022, 12:04 PM
Jeez hadn’t realised ATM had fallen so far. Todays market review says:
Infant formula exporter A2 Milk led the index lower as it fell 4.2% to an almost five-year low at $5.48.
Sp looks like it is heading towards $3.50 imo.
No good news out of China for ATM - another declining birth rate in 2021, domestic competition eating into imported market share, increased input costs as well as COVID related cost increases.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/what-chinas-declining-birth-rate-means-for-nzs-infant-formula-makers/P5AY5VDFUR3JRVSIWFODGT6C3A/
Paywalled
Jeez hadn’t realised ATM had fallen so far. Todays market review says:
Infant formula exporter A2 Milk led the index lower as it fell 4.2% to an almost five-year low at $5.48.
Interesting to note that ATM was roughly three times it's current SP ($17.19 on 3.4.20) in the depths
of our first Covid-19 dip on NZX
winner69
23-01-2022, 07:55 AM
Interesting to note that ATM was roughly three times it's current SP ($17.19 on 3.4.20) in the depths
of our first Covid-19 dip on NZX
…….and because A2 not impacted by covid a few months later in July/Aug 2020 it was about four times it’s current share price
X-men
25-01-2022, 09:35 AM
Sapato's take over news out yesterday. Not sure this time is real or just big fundies play?? However, if there was a smoke must be a fire??
Sapato's take over news out yesterday. Not sure this time is real or just big fundies play?? However, if there was a smoke must be a fire??
Looks like the ASX is excited about it, up 8% and climbing.
Sideshow Bob
26-01-2022, 11:14 PM
Farmers Weekly Article
https://farmersweekly.co.nz/s/fw-article/a2-milk-speculation-abounds-MCYL3CSJ2LIBCPXJJHDOXVORINGQ
carrom74
28-01-2022, 12:55 PM
If you have a lot to sell at a reasonable price.. then talk to the Australian media and they will do the needful 😀#Saputo!
aperitif
31-01-2022, 11:29 AM
http://research.iress.com.au/IDS/old/20220131/02480599.pdf?uid=4330320C9DD79E9ABACDCF8851EC1187E 04F0000AD5D633E30C6E540093D250091850000&ppv=
Baa_Baa
31-01-2022, 11:59 AM
http://research.iress.com.au/IDS/old/20220131/02480599.pdf?uid=4330320C9DD79E9ABACDCF8851EC1187E 04F0000AD5D633E30C6E540093D250091850000&ppv=
Encouraging for BUB's, especially the channel growth. But no mention of profit? Am I reading this correctly?
"Record quarterly gross revenue of $19.9m"
".. the Company advises it spent$14.4 million on product manufacturing and operating costs, $3.0 million on administration and corporatecosts, $1.9 million on staff costs, and $2.2 million on advertising and marketing." (= $21.5m)
= Loss $1.6m ???
Had to go look for the thread which is buried on Page 4.
Its been very loooong time between drinks, just broke through $6 mark. Forget the numbers, lower NZD FX should give decent tailwind for rest of 2022.
Sideshow Bob
10-02-2022, 01:37 PM
More Bubs News:
Bubs says China’s infant formula demand exceeding pre-pandemic levels (nutraingredients-asia.com) (https://www.nutraingredients-asia.com/Article/2022/02/09/Bubs-says-China-s-infant-formula-demand-exceeding-pre-pandemic-levels?utm_source=newsletter_daily&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=10-Feb-2022&cid=DM992722&bid=1841840408)
China’s corporate daigou channel is witnessing high growth momentum and demand for infant formulas is exceeding pre-COVID-19 levels, according to Australian infant formula maker Bubs.
Sideshow Bob
21-02-2022, 08:32 AM
Half Year
1H22 Results and Interim Report - NZX, New Zealand’s Exchange (https://www.nzx.com/announcements/387542)
The a2 Milk Company (“the Company”, “a2MC”) today announces that its 1H22 result was in line with the Company’s expectations, placing the Company in a strong position to execute its strategy and deliver revenue growth in FY22 in a challenging and volatile market.
In October 2021, the Company announced its refreshed growth strategy which has been adapted to the rapidly changing infant milk formula (“IMF”) market dynamics in China. The Company also outlined its medium-term indicative sales and EBITDA margin ambition. With its growth strategy review completed, the Company has moved into the execution phase focused on implementing its strategic priorities and related initiatives, which is in its early stages and progressing well.
The actions taken by the Company in 4Q21 and 1Q22 to address excess inventory are also proving effective with channel inventory levels reducing to targeted levels, product freshness improving and market pricing increasing across English label and China label IMF, enabling healthier channel economics for participants in the a2MC business system.
Key points1
• Market conditions continued to be challenging with the China IMF market declining by 3.3% in value during 1H22 due mainly to the cumulative impact of a lower birth rate, while the Australian and US (premium) liquid milk markets were in growth. COVID-19 and other external factors continued to impact the Company’s supply chain
• Interim results in line with the Company’s expectations and expecting to deliver revenue growth in FY22• Revenue was marginally lower than 1H21 in line with guidance, down 2.5% to $660.5 million on the prior corresponding period (“pcp”), up 24.8% on 2H21- As disclosed in the Company’s announcement on 26 August 2021, China label IMF sales were constrained by a2MCin 1Q22 to rebalance distributor inventory levels with sales down 11.4% for 1H22 vs pcp. However, consumerofftake growth in store and online was up double-digits with higher market share- English and other label IMF sales were down 9.8% in 1H22 vs pcp with lower market share, but with an improvement in sales trajectory during the half particularly in the ANZ reseller channel- ANZ liquid milk sales were up with higher market share, while USA liquid milk sales were down
• Earnings before interest tax depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA2) was down 45.3% on pcp to $97.6 million• EBITDA to sales margin of 14.8% in 1H22 compared to 26.4% in 1H21; EBITDA to sales margin excluding MVM of 17.3%• Net profit after tax (“NPAT”) including the non-controlling interest was down 53.3% to $56.1 million on pcp
• Closing net cash was $667.2 million, now incorporating $80.0 million of MVM debt, with high operational cash conversion during 1H22• Mataura Valley Milk (“MVM”) acquisition and strategic partnership with China Animal Husbandry Group (“CAHG")completed in July 2021 and fully consolidated into the results. Commenced planning for a laboratory and blending and canning capability at MVM and accelerated actions to insource certain a2MC product
• Brand health metrics improved following a significant marketing campaign in 2Q22 with total brand / China label metrics improving and English label metrics remaining relatively flat. Brand investment increased in 1H22 by 37.3% vs pcp to $92.5 million in line with the Company’s growth strategy
Growth strategy refresh to respond to the rapidly changing China IMF market dynamics completed and implementation underway with good early progress across key initiatives
• The Company’s outlook for 2H22 revenue has improved. It is still expected to be significantly higher than 2H21, and with growth now expected on 1H22 and for FY22 ahead of initial expectations due mainly to growth in China label and English label IMF. However, this revenue improvement is not expected to translate into higher earnings as the Companysignificantly increases brand and other reinvestment consistent with its growth strategy (the Outlook section below has further detail including key industry and business risks
carrom74
21-02-2022, 08:46 AM
Not a bad report...I guess.
MVM is improving but US is a drag...
They fared better than expected, seems as though DB has slowly but surely steadied the ship and steering in right direction. Long way to go but green shoots starting to appear.
Short squeeze on over at ASX...
Lease
21-02-2022, 12:12 PM
New CEO has executed very well!
Sideshow Bob
21-02-2022, 12:36 PM
Retirement of NED / appointment of new NED - NZX, New Zealand’s Exchange (https://www.nzx.com/announcements/387544)
Well she lasted a long time.....
Shareguy
21-02-2022, 02:57 PM
A better than expected result. Plenty of cash still. And the market likes it…
winner69
21-02-2022, 04:34 PM
A better than expected result. Plenty of cash still. And the market likes it…
Hope you back on board shareguy ..... sahre price could be 15 bucks in a years time if they keep delivering
Beagle
21-02-2022, 05:10 PM
Wow, 8 cents per share in earnings down 50 % from pcp...might make 17 cps this year. Gargantuan increases in marketing costs and administration costs, see page 7.
Forward PE is 37...priced higher than some of our leading companies with a multi year track record of strong growth.
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/ATM/387542/364914.pdf
DYOR, I am not touching it.
Shareguy
21-02-2022, 05:12 PM
Yes winner . I brought a pile a while ago so very pleased today. Would be wrapped with $15 but think around $7 to $8 more likely unless a takeover.
If they have stabilised the ship what are they going to do with all that cash.
Lease
21-02-2022, 05:25 PM
Wow, 8 cents per share in earnings down 50 % from pcp...might make 17 cps this year. Gargantuan increases in marketing costs and administration costs, see page 7.
Forward PE is 37...priced higher than some of our leading companies with a multi year track record of strong growth.
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/ATM/387542/364914.pdf
DYOR, I am not touching it.
Compare 2022 1H with 2021 2H, you will see sales up by 25% and underlying operating profit up by 80%!
Compare 2022 1H with 2021 2H, you will see sales up 25% and underlying operating profit up 80%!
Bang on, market is forward looking. Listening to analyst conf call, can’t help but feel DB is extremely capable CEO and doesn’t hype things up. Analysts were very complementary of his efforts in turning the ship around and you know what happens to sp when you’ve earned their confidence. Even the famous Sam Teeger of Citi is quite pleased with result.
Lease
21-02-2022, 05:50 PM
Bang on, market is forward looking. Listening to analyst conf call, can’t help but feel DB is extremely capable CEO and doesn’t hype things up. Analysts were very complementary of his efforts in turning the ship around and you know what happens to sp when you’ve earned their confidence. Even the famous Sam Teeger of Citi is quite pleased with result.
Yes, an outstanding leader.
Dassets
21-02-2022, 06:27 PM
Yes winner . I brought a pile a while ago so very pleased today. Would be wrapped with $15 but think around $7 to $8 more likely unless a takeover.
If they have stabilised the ship what are they going to do with all that cash.
Pay for the class actions's damages that one must think have an excellent chance of success!
Beagle
21-02-2022, 06:43 PM
Yes winner . I brought a pile a while ago so very pleased today. Would be wrapped with $15 but think around $7 to $8 more likely unless a takeover.
If they have stabilised the ship what are they going to do with all that cash.
Spend it on another loss making milk processing plant somewhere else in the South Island ;)
Ship might be starting to be stabilized but appears to be capable of only earning half as much. Throw tens of millions extra per half year on marketing and tens of million more on administration and management resource...what could possibly go wrong ;)
winner69
21-02-2022, 06:50 PM
Wow, 8 cents per share in earnings down 50 % from pcp...might make 17 cps this year. Gargantuan increases in marketing costs and administration costs, see page 7.
Forward PE is 37...priced higher than some of our leading companies with a multi year track record of strong growth.
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/ATM/387542/364914.pdf
DYOR, I am not touching it.
Make $235m and only on a PE of 20 ……god like CEO and that cash mountain ….all looking good …..cheap as at the moment
Lease
21-02-2022, 07:00 PM
Make $235m and only on a PE of 20 ……god like CEO and that cash mountain ….all looking good …..cheap as at the moment
Winner, where is $235m from? Did I miss something?
Make $235m and only on a PE of 20 ……god like CEO and that cash mountain ….all looking good …..cheap as at the moment
And today’s report basically buried the bear case scenario for foreseeable future.
Dassets
21-02-2022, 08:18 PM
And today’s report basically buried the bear case scenario for foreseeable future.
Not really, they have the same problem. One product in one market makes the money. The USA is an absolute failure. The only positive with it is once they close it earnings will rise but it will signal the failure of strategy to be a broad and multi-market international player.
Also it is possible the diagou shopping network breaches the export license system in Australia and here.
Beagle
21-02-2022, 11:14 PM
Not really, they have the same problem. One product in one market makes the money. The USA is an absolute failure. The only positive with it is once they close it earnings will rise but it will signal the failure of strategy to be a broad and multi-market international player.
Also it is possible the diagou shopping network breaches the export license system in Australia and here.
I'm with you that the problems have not gone away. They spent nearly a whopping $100m on marketing in the half year to try and stabilize the ship and stop it taking on more water. Vast amounts more will be required and all it takes at any stage is the stoke of a pen by the CCP and they go back to being the Titanic taking on more water again. Too much dependency on one market. I don't like it because I can't get comfortable with the metrics or the risks involved.
dreamcatcher
23-02-2022, 12:06 PM
Good result for bubs.......
Balance
07-03-2022, 08:59 AM
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/NZXO/388383/366146.pdf
ATM out of S&P/NZX10 & NZX MidCap.
The indignity of it all.
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/NZXO/388383/366146.pdf
ATM out of S&P/NZX10 & NZX MidCap.
The indignity of it all.
Ouch I reckon :)
Balance
08-03-2022, 09:34 AM
Looking at this piece of news in Oct 21 and then, the news around its recent results :
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/market-close-a2-milk-surges-on-positive-signs-from-china/XAFOPMXC3EX5EUIAJRBCV3C7MA/
ATM must be one of the most manipulated stocks in the market - a few institutions playing the reef fishes out there like whales herding shrimps.
winner69
09-03-2022, 04:32 PM
Citi are highlighting the regulatory risk facing A2 Milk around re-registration of IF products by early next year
Balance
09-03-2022, 04:46 PM
Citi are highlighting the regulatory risk facing A2 Milk around re-registration of IF products by early next year
Risk is low as China is keen to keep its food supply line intact for as long as possible.
But it’s sayonara to ATM and it’s share price if China does not reregister its IF!
So can forget about any takeover possibility with that risk hanging over the company.
carrom74
01-04-2022, 08:55 AM
A clue of some stability in A2??
from today's SML's FY22 guidance statement...
FY22 guidance statement:
Synlait still expects its Net Profit After Tax result to return to robust profitability in FY22 based on:
• Tighter management of its Ingredient business;
• Improved infant base powder volumes;
• A growing contribution from its Lactoferrin and Consumer Foods businesses; and
• Retained cost savings.
Maxtrade
01-04-2022, 10:01 AM
Does anyone involved have any recent updates in the class action law suits?
couta1
01-04-2022, 10:13 AM
Does anyone involved have any recent updates in the class action law suits? Doesnt seem to be any progress yet, these things can take years.
aperitif
01-04-2022, 12:05 PM
Some encouraging news this week
1 - Synlait seeing improved infant base powder volumes today
2 - A2 win another court case https://www.ashurst.com/en/news-and-insights/insights/uncontested-appeal-leads-to-the-registration-of-the-a2-milk-and-true-a2-trade-marks/
3 - Ausnutria report out this week seeing category in $$$ terms up 2.2% in 2021 and a gradual lift in birth rate over the next 2-3 years.
1366613667
couta1
01-04-2022, 02:50 PM
Does anyone involved have any recent updates in the class action law suits? Funny you bought this up today as I just got an email from Slater&Gordon requesting evidence of holding etc.
Maxtrade
07-04-2022, 11:16 AM
Funny you bought this up today as I just got an email from Slater&Gordon requesting evidence of holding etc.
Thanks Couta, do you know if it is too late to register and get on board with the claim?
SP breaking through past lower end resistance. New low on the horizon? Maybe previous posts predictions still stand? Surely not into the 0.4's ?!
couta1
07-04-2022, 11:25 AM
Thanks Couta, do you know if it is too late to register and get on board with the claim?
SP breaking through past lower end resistance. New low on the horizon? Maybe previous posts predictions still stand? Surely not into the 0.4's ?! You can still register but you were automatically included if you held shares in date range, they are now requesting evidence of holding so would pay to contact them ASAP.
Patrick11
07-04-2022, 11:30 AM
Any Court action will be thrown out. Angry shareholders need to move on
couta1
07-04-2022, 11:38 AM
Any Court action will be thrown out. Angry shareholders need to move on You could take your own advice along with your 4 posts. As I said all holders were included automatically angry or not.
Baa_Baa
07-04-2022, 11:49 AM
Any Court action will be thrown out. Angry shareholders need to move on
There are two class actions, both have already been to the relevant court. Couta is referring to the Slater Gordon suit. The other is Shine Lawyers. The next step is to resolve the competing claims, on May 5 the court hears evidence on how the matter will proceed.
As a holder ( of far too many) I can't be bothered applying. Water under the bridge.
bull....
11-04-2022, 12:21 PM
looks like a hammertime moment coming soon. On the verge in aus of breaking below $5 and new all time lows
carrom74
11-04-2022, 12:39 PM
looks like a hammertime moment coming soon. On the verge in aus of breaking below $5 and new all time lows
Citi has advised a SELL target price $AU 4.80. Same guys were recommended it as a BUY not a while ago. Reason for the twist— Shanghai port �� and SAMR rego delay. I thought UBS were worst but Citi not far.
bull....
11-04-2022, 02:56 PM
Citi has advised a SELL target price $AU 4.80. Same guys were recommended it as a BUY not a while ago. Reason for the twist— Shanghai port �� and SAMR rego delay. I thought UBS were worst but Citi not far.
wow :scared: thats a huge drop in there target price
i see late feb citi did a downgrade to $7.02 aus
bottomfeeder
11-04-2022, 04:37 PM
If China makes some sort of move on Taiwan, (it doesnt havre to be a full millitary strike, there are more than one way to skin a cat.) resultant sanctions may mean ATM biggest market will fold. The world is getting smaller.Rogue country trade must be regarded as temporary at best.
bull....
12-04-2022, 12:34 PM
the selling is continuing sine asx opened
whatsup
12-04-2022, 04:31 PM
Muck me $5-00 !!!
Maxtrade
12-04-2022, 10:31 PM
Muck me $5-00 !!!
Still a long way to erode further by the look of daunting hurdles. Nerves of steel for those who haven't sold out already. Lot of holders either not wanting to realise losses or holding out for some shear hope. Maybe the targets of $3.50 - $4 are still a genuine reality over 2022. Another sell off in the works
Waltzing
13-04-2022, 10:03 AM
the CCP has a ground hog day strategy on the virus. obviously population not jabbed enough and there vaccine not effective enough.
population unrest on the rise.
not an investible country..
ralph
13-04-2022, 12:32 PM
the CCP has a ground hog day strategy on the virus. obviously population not jabbed enough and there vaccine not effective enough.
population unrest on the rise.
not an investible country..
Never has been in reality anything could happen and will
carrom74
18-04-2022, 07:16 PM
China is sneezing the world will soon cough! Consumption down and so is all macro economic indicators. Another red flag for exporters … especially for China dependent ATM
https://www.reuters.com/world/china/chinas-q1-gdp-expands-48-yy-better-than-fcast-risks-outlook-abound-2022-04-18/
Still a long way to erode further by the look of daunting hurdles. Nerves of steel for those who haven't sold out already. Lot of holders either not wanting to realise losses or holding out for some shear hope. Maybe the targets of $3.50 - $4 are still a genuine reality over 2022. Another sell off in the works
Another sell off???.. Technically there is a good chance as the shareprice has nudged just below its primary support...Mind you it could be said that ATM is dragging along the bottom for 11 months now and there has been no signicant rally for 5 months..an unusual price (chart) behaviour..The longer it stays around the bottom the bigger the chance of a fall rather than a rise.
Fundamentally ATM seems sound in the sense that it is sitting on a cash Mountain if today's NZ Herald article (https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/continuous-disclosure-will-a2-milk-ever-pay-a-dividend/QLQXUFQAR4FQ4W37SUQFHV4GVA/) is correct the cash pile is about 90cents/share..that's pretty awesome for a very unloved stock..However it may show that good management is lacking.. Is the cash pile big enough to attract sharks?
Disc: own a few (dabble) currently -15%..
Pitch Group
20-04-2022, 04:16 PM
Another sell off???.. Technically there is a good chance as the shareprice has nudged just below its primary support...Mind you it could be said that ATM is dragging along the bottom for 11 months now and there has been no signicant rally for 5 months..an unusual price (chart) behaviour..The longer it stays around the bottom the bigger the chance of a fall rather than a rise.
Fundamentally ATM seems sound in the sense that it is sitting on a cash Mountain if today's NZ Herald article (https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/continuous-disclosure-will-a2-milk-ever-pay-a-dividend/QLQXUFQAR4FQ4W37SUQFHV4GVA/) is correct the cash pile is about 90cents/share..that's pretty awesome for a very unloved stock..However it may show that good management is lacking.. Is the cash pile big enough to attract sharks?
Disc: own a few (dabble) currently -15%..
Currently down 10% and that is after a 2.5% gain today
carrom74
21-04-2022, 12:16 PM
Possible takeover of Danone by Lactails...
Danone's latest report had a 1.8% decline on their dairy segment(UK-RUS war reason).Could be a positive one for ATM as Danone is a bigger player in China.ATM may have increased its market share(especially in UHT-its new product and milk powder segments)
Food staple stocks are all going up of late in Europe.With inflationary pressures, and the war situation not going out soon,ATM ---if could hold on to what they projected in FEB, can see an uplift.
With a staggering pile of cash--of course
https://www.just-food.com/news/lactalis-advisers-weigh-up-move-for-danone-assets/
Disc-Holding(still....).
whatsup
26-04-2022, 11:21 AM
Sub $5-00 atm with ongoing uncertainty in China, lockdown affecting their economy big time.
Today's fortunes so far dont look much better with further retreat
couta1
27-04-2022, 11:12 AM
Today's fortunes so far dont look much better with further retreat Total wealth destruction company, so many more losers than winners in this one with a 12 billion market cap wipeout in less than 2 yrs, even the likes of Blackrock have been smashed severely.
Sideshow Bob
27-04-2022, 12:59 PM
Total wealth destruction company, so many more losers than winners in this one with a 12 billion market cap wipeout in less than 2 yrs, even the likes of Blackrock have been smashed severely.
A2 paid for a big chunk of my house. ;) Many here would have been holders early days.
couta1
27-04-2022, 01:10 PM
A2 paid for a big chunk of my house. ;) Many here would have been holders early days. Lol yeah I made enough to buy 1.5 houses but ended up losing 2 houses worth on the stock.
carrom74
02-05-2022, 10:20 AM
The last time the stock was this low was somewhere in 2017. Jeez that’s about 5 years ago.
bull....
02-05-2022, 10:20 AM
wonder if a2 had similar issues
Fonterra says China dairy imports dropped 29 per cent in March
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/fonterra-says-china-dairy-imports-dropped-29-per-cent-in-march/WQWEZ3BAFTHH22JJOVQXRTDWIY/
bottomfeeder
02-05-2022, 10:43 AM
Post removed
Baa_Baa
02-05-2022, 01:43 PM
a2 announced via LinkedIn the winners of their inaugural "a2 Legends Awards" recognising team members who have made contributions to the a2 strategy whilst demonstrating the a2 values. The winners were the China Supply Chain Team - Doris Tao, Joyce Xu, Catherine Wu and Tim Zhou.
Hopefully that bodes well for a2 supply into China during the past and current challenges with Covid shutdowns in China and international supply chain constraints.
Beagle
02-05-2022, 01:56 PM
wonder if a2 had similar issues
Fonterra says China dairy imports dropped 29 per cent in March
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/fonterra-says-china-dairy-imports-dropped-29-per-cent-in-march/WQWEZ3BAFTHH22JJOVQXRTDWIY/
Can't be good for Synlait either.
Sideshow Bob
02-05-2022, 03:05 PM
wonder if a2 had similar issues
Fonterra says China dairy imports dropped 29 per cent in March
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/fonterra-says-china-dairy-imports-dropped-29-per-cent-in-march/WQWEZ3BAFTHH22JJOVQXRTDWIY/
Can't really be blamed on Shanghai's lockdown, and any downturn in foodservice etc - as I think the lockdown started late March.
Would have thought Fonterra would have faired better than many other dairy exporters diue to their ownership/stake in Kotahi - but always going to suffer simply because of their size.
bull....
02-05-2022, 03:08 PM
Can't really be blamed on Shanghai's lockdown, and any downturn in foodservice etc - as I think the lockdown started late March.
Would have thought Fonterra would have faired better than many other dairy exporters diue to their ownership/stake in Kotahi - but always going to suffer simply because of their size.
if your not blaming these issues like freight issues lockdowns etc what is it ? is nz exports being targeted by china like aus ? as a warning
carrom74
03-05-2022, 10:36 AM
Citi behind trade that caused brief European share plunge
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/02/citi-behind-trade-that-caused-brief-european-share-plunge.html
The master manipulators are at play all over the world...ATM had two recommendations from these Muppets(one buy one sell rating in a span of six months)...
bull....
04-05-2022, 03:25 PM
a few retailers in aus indicating issues with freight and lockdowns going forward. i took it they were talking about china. they didnt outright mention them by name
whatsup
04-05-2022, 04:05 PM
With the 8% drop in the milk price last night its not surprising that ATM is sinking now ! grrrrr !
flyinglizard
04-05-2022, 04:30 PM
I have been to China for couple of month and back to NZ at end of April. What I saw is China growth story may be coming to the end.
- In a tie-1 city (over 10million population) which is not suffering Covid druing my visit, 1/3 of shops down main streets are empty or closed. No one wants to lease the retail shops. Two major malls are in liquidity.
- In malls, almost all restuarants are running takeaway delivery business by Mei Tuan.
- I cannot see people in big supermarket (around 10-20 per visit). The size of the supermarket is bigger than any Pak'n save in NZ.
- Property market in Tie-1 cities dropped by 10%, some young people cannot pay the rent due to job cuts. Plan back to Tie-3 city for living.
- In some tie -2 cities, the apartment market collapses by over 70% in value, the villa in the fringe of cities dropped over 50% in value.
- Sharemarket dropped by over 25%, all investors and financial institutions are losing confidence.
- The only sectors run well are new energy automobile, IT and healthcare & medication industry.
- young couples delay to have babies, due to financial stress, living environment change or Covid etc.
- The Chinese government is struggling with 5.5% annual GDP growth target. Lots of investment capital flows into Vietnam.
A2 is heading to $2.75 - $3.5, if they have no any marketing strategy change.
whatsup
04-05-2022, 05:48 PM
I have been to China for couple of month and back to NZ at end of April. What I saw is China growth story may be coming to the end.
- In a tie-1 city (over 10million population) which is not suffering Covid druing my visit, 1/3 of shops down main streets are empty or closed. No one wants to lease the retail shops. Two major malls are in liquidity.
- In malls, almost all restuarants are running takeaway delivery business by Mei Tuan.
- I cannot see people in big supermarket (around 10-20 per visit). The size of the supermarket is bigger than any Pak'n save in NZ.
- Property market in Tie-1 cities dropped by 10%, some young people cannot pay the rent due to job cuts. Plan back to Tie-3 city for living.
- In some tie -2 cities, the apartment market collapses by over 70% in value, the villa in the fringe of cities dropped over 50% in value.
- Sharemarket dropped by over 25%, all investors and financial institutions are losing confidence.
- The only sectors run well are new energy automobile, IT and healthcare & medication industry.
- young couples delay to have babies, due to financial stress, living environment change or Covid etc.
- The Chinese government is struggling with 5.5% annual GDP growth target. Lots of investment capital flows into Vietnam.
A2 is heading to $2.75 - $3.5, if they have no any marketing strategy change.
fl...., great to get a headsup from the coal face depressing as it may be , where to for the population from here, depression, strife, unrest, revolution , the left does not have any special answers except bullying !
Balance
04-05-2022, 07:20 PM
fl...., great to get a headsup from the coal face depressing as it may be , where to for the population from here, depression, strife, unrest, revolution , the left does not have any special answers except bullying !
As opposed to NZ where a nation has been turned into sheep by Ardern & her scare tactics?
Interesting to note that only China & North Korea are the only 2 nations left still to reopen their borders after NZ reopened partially 2 days ago. Great minds think alike but fools seldom differ.
carrom74
05-05-2022, 03:03 PM
Shareholders signed up for the class action as per Business desk's reporting today-1900
As per Last years annual report Total shareholders are 107,172
Looks like not many are keen...
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Baa_Baa
05-05-2022, 04:27 PM
Shareholders signed up for the class action as per Business desk's reporting today-1900
As per Last years annual report Total shareholders are 107,172
Looks like not many are keen...
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A shareholder during the disputed period does not have to 'sign up' to be part of the class action(s) at this stage, all shareholders are automatically eligible up until the action proceeds, then they will need to join if they want to. The current court hearings are about agreeing the approach as the two litigants have substantial similar grievances.
X-men
05-05-2022, 04:49 PM
Nah..if u don't register before u are not entitled anymore. I remembered last time with Vocus. I could not bother to register n I did not get in. Because they will ask u to provide evidence ..fill in form etc
whatsup
09-05-2022, 01:21 PM
$4-50 here we come !!
Balance
09-05-2022, 01:43 PM
The total lockdown in Shanghai and other parts of China since March is going to accelerate the trend of Chinese parents embracing domestic IF brands and suppliers.
bull....
09-05-2022, 01:45 PM
The total lockdown in Shanghai and other parts of China since March is going to accelerate the trend of Chinese parents embracing domestic IF brands and suppliers.
agree
logistics issues of getting nz product in mean it be easy to get home grown product
whatsup
10-05-2022, 09:35 AM
I see in todays White House briefing that there is a shortage of baby formula, could there be any flow on to ATM ?
I would have thought that there would be plenty of A2 formula in the bonded warehouses in China to get through the lock downs, if so how long will that last ?
bull....
10-05-2022, 10:06 AM
I see in todays White House briefing that there is a shortage of baby formula, could there be any flow on to ATM ?
I would have thought that there would be plenty of A2 formula in the bonded warehouses in China to get through the lock downs, if so how long will that last ?
the usa problem is because they shut down a major manufacturing facility abbots have.
whatsup
10-05-2022, 10:16 AM
the usa problem is because they shut down a major manufacturing facility abbots have.
Yes but would there be opportunity for A2 ?
Baa_Baa
10-05-2022, 10:30 AM
Yes but would there be opportunity for A2 ?
Opportunity possibly, though A2 don't sell formula in the USA, only liquid.
Four Dollar 43/100 close .. any further thoughts on ATM ? ;)
whatsup
14-05-2022, 10:13 AM
Opportunity possibly, though A2 don't sell formula in the USA, only liquid.
In todays U S news the baby formula shortage is big big news but not a whisper from A2M , do they not see any opportunity there even if its air freighted in ?
Baa_Baa
14-05-2022, 10:29 AM
In todays U S news the baby formula shortage is big big news but not a whisper from A2M , do they not see any opportunity there even if its air freighted in ?
They don't have FDA approval to sell IF in the USA. And, neither NZ or Australia are on the 'fast track' list for imports to USA to alleviate the current shortages. Doesn't mean they shouldn't do anything about it though.
xafalcon
14-05-2022, 05:56 PM
FDA approval takes several years with no guarantee of success. Claims will need to be scientifically substantiated and reproducible. And any USA distribution agreement will require UNLIMITED liability. Better companies have tried and abandoned
carrom74
14-05-2022, 07:14 PM
They don't have FDA approval to sell IF in the USA. And, neither NZ or Australia are on the 'fast track' list for imports to USA to alleviate the current shortages. Doesn't mean they shouldn't do anything about it though.
Does the US in this unfortunate and precarious situation, fast track their import priorities or just follow their usual red tape methodology??
We should also bear in mind that A2's biggest markets, China is notorious with this red-tape(SAMR) and if A2 are able to crack and sail into their market then entering US is a no-brainer.DB should be working overtime!!
Sideshow Bob
14-05-2022, 10:05 PM
Does the US in this unfortunate and precarious situation, fast track their import priorities or just follow their usual red tape methodology??
We should also bear in mind that A2's biggest markets, China is notorious with this red-tape(SAMR) and if A2 are able to crack and sail into their market then entering US is a no-brainer.DB should be working overtime!!
Isn't Munchkin manufactured by Synlait?? If so, the facility will be approved - just any claims etc they want to make (which might be something similar to what they make on fresh milk sales in the US??)
Munchkin Grass Fed Infant Formula Powder- Milk Based with Iron. From happy, grass fed New Zealand cows. - Walmart.com (https://www.walmart.com/ip/Munchkin-Grass-Fed-Infant-Formula-Powder-Milk-Based-with-Iron-From-happy-grass-fed-New-Zealand-cows/181515413)
ralph
15-05-2022, 08:50 AM
Anyone Know if synlaits soon to be announced new big customer supplies to the U S A or has that ability ,that would be a Double rainbow
montegamontoya
16-05-2022, 07:41 AM
Lists Syn certifications/accreditations
https://www.synlait.com/process/#cust
13819
Balance
16-05-2022, 08:53 AM
The US supplies 98% of its IF domestic market. Matter of time before that corrects itself even if it takes 2 years.
Is it worth any IF company (let alone one with a high price point) to spend money and try to supply that market over a short term supply issue?
It is not like China where there was a collapse of confidence in domestic IF suppliers.
whatsup
16-05-2022, 01:19 PM
6% recovery today, Q is can they hit $5-00 today ?
ralph
16-05-2022, 01:24 PM
Looks Kosher ! It would be interesting to know if they have added any new accreditation's in the past 18 months or so that would give us and Idea of the new direction synlait are taking
winner69
17-05-2022, 08:50 AM
CFO resigns and David does a Jayne and brings one of his old work mates on board.
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/392153
bull....
17-05-2022, 12:14 PM
abbott factory be back on line soon , all back to normal
Balance
18-05-2022, 02:09 PM
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/392277
Class action filed against ATM.
bull....
18-05-2022, 03:03 PM
there goes there cash pile on lawyers fees for sure
and payouts?
$2.50 SP coming up as these class actions roll out ?
How are the Sales forward going to replace the Ca$h to tidy up the shambles
and cover the "No blame - We didn't do it - we deny all" pay outs ? ;)
On the back of the SP decline at best there might be a heap more ready to climb on board
to join the class actions :)
Could be a real messy and costly affair :)
aperitif
18-05-2022, 03:44 PM
Just did a bit of digging on “CHC Investment Fund III Pty Limited” who is funding the class action by Thorn. Lol. Go and have a look
https://companies-register.companiesoffice.govt.nz/
Just did a bit of digging on “CHC Investment Fund III Pty Limited” who is funding the class action by Thorn. Lol. Go and have a look
https://companies-register.companiesoffice.govt.nz/
Nothing there because it's an Aussie Company:
More info at the bottom of their page here:
https://www.a2milkclassaction.com/faq
Questions answered by Court House Capital Pty Limited regarding funding of the legal action
Australian litigation funder, Court House Capital Pty Limited ...
Are they involved in a CBL Litigation financing ?
Google seems to bring up CBL
FAQ's | CBL Class Action | New Zealandhttps://www.a2milkclassaction.com › faq
Who is funding the class action? The action is funded by CHC Investment Fund III Pty Limited, a subsidiary of Court House Capital Pty Limited (CHC).
winner69
18-05-2022, 04:04 PM
Just did a bit of digging on “CHC Investment Fund III Pty Limited” who is funding the class action by Thorn. Lol. Go and have a look
https://companies-register.companiesoffice.govt.nz/
This outfit
https://courthousecapital.com.au/
Out of Pocket Long suffering Investors in ATM - meet the Officers of your CHC
Litigation Funders:
https://courthousecapital.com.au/about-us/
Undoubtedly they get to score first large chop out of any coin shaken loose from ATM ;)
Beagle
18-05-2022, 05:14 PM
Nobody on ST is eligible for this class action because you could have heard the warning barks even if your live in the Chatham Islands lol
Nobody on ST is eligible for this class action because you could have heard the warning barks even if your live in the Chatham Islands lol
I'm slightly deaf - could you repeat please in slightly smaller words ? lol :)
Habits
18-05-2022, 06:22 PM
Nobody on ST is eligible for this class action because you could have heard the warning barks even if your live in the Chatham Islands lol
Exactly.... am not sure how genuine this action is. Is it about apportioning blame by those disgruntled. The writing was on the wall all of the time as the SP continued to trend down. Just had to read the tea leaves or easier still, check the charts. We got caught by the up ramping prior to an announcement when the sp was around 11. Very quickly realised this was a mutt and not worth holding. Sold out pre-announcement, were down a few pennies and glad of it.
Balance
18-05-2022, 06:27 PM
Nobody on ST is eligible for this class action because you could have heard the warning barks even if your live in the Chatham Islands lol
Sp down to where it was in June 2017 - 5 lost years & billions of dollars destroyed except for the management and directors who were smart enough to sell close to the top.
couta1
18-05-2022, 06:34 PM
Hindsight is always 20/20 and broken clocks are always right twice a day as well. There has been plenty of barking on other stocks over the years and it has been dead wrong (XRO would be one example when it dropped from $45 to $12 and it was a done company according to some on here) Dont expect any of the class actions to go anywhere and they are only there for opportunistic legal firms who smell the chance of some easy dosh.
Habits
18-05-2022, 06:44 PM
Hindsight is always 20/20 and broken clocks are always right twice a day as well. There has been plenty of barking on other stocks over the years and it has been dead wrong (XRO would be one example when it dropped from $45 to $12 and it was a done company according to some on here) Dont expect any of the class actions to go anywhere and they are only there for opportunistic legal firms who smell the chance of some easy dosh.
Are the lawyers working pro-bono... that is a huge incentive for lawyers to get a quick settlement. Did you jump on board this train couta, get some money back.
Balance
18-05-2022, 06:50 PM
Hindsight is always 20/20 and broken clocks are always right twice a day as well. There has been plenty of barking on other stocks over the years and it has been dead wrong (XRO would be one example when it dropped from $45 to $12 and it was a done company according to some on here) Dont expect any of the class actions to go anywhere and they are only there for opportunistic legal firms who smell the chance of some easy dosh.
Hindsight?
Profit downgrade one after another, warning one after another and that’s hindsight?
couta1
18-05-2022, 06:54 PM
Hindsight?
Profit downgrade one after another, warning one after another and that’s hindsight? As they say its complicated and im not going to write a book about it on here, im just thankful im alive and happy.
Beagle
18-05-2022, 08:03 PM
Hindsight?
Profit downgrade one after another, warning one after another and that’s hindsight?
Its all on the record mate... I can't help wondering where the price goes from here ? Even after the massacre to the share price it still trades on 29 times average broker estimated earnings for FY22 ! https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/THE-A2-MILK-COMPANY-LIMIT-11384022/financials/
29 times with their history and being so dependent on the market in China and with 3 class action lawsuits. WOW !
Maybe that $3 handle I talked about at one stage is not out of the question ? What do you think mate ?
RupertBear
18-05-2022, 08:54 PM
Come on guys its no time to gloat and say we told you so. We all know Couta lost a lot on ATM but as he said he is grateful to still be alive. Lets show him some compassion as I am sure this brings up a lot of horrible memories for him. Stay strong Couta
Balance
18-05-2022, 08:58 PM
Its all on the record mate... I can't help wondering where the price goes from here ? Even after the massacre to the share price it still trades on 29 times average broker estimated earnings for FY22 ! https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/THE-A2-MILK-COMPANY-LIMIT-11384022/financials/
29 times with their history and being so dependent on the market in China and with 3 class action lawsuits. WOW !
Maybe that $3 handle I talked about at one stage is not out of the question ? What do you think mate ?
Cannot see any upside myself in ATM :
A2 milk is getting commoditised with competitors undercutting its pricing. Karicare sells at $23.95 to $26.95 vs A2M’s $41.00 for eg.
It is facing multiple headwinds of declining birthrate & increased domestic competition in its biggest market, China.
Rising prices for milk powder and ingredients are placing cost pressure at a time when margins are already getting squeezed by competition.
US is bleeding money with no end in sight.
The 3 lawsuits are not only going to be costly but extremely distracting for the directors and management.
Only positive so far is that NZ$ has dropped but inflationary costs in NZ are offsetting that to a great extent.
Have I missed anything?
Only 2 things keeping the sp at current level :
1. Rear mirror view of high sp
2. Takeover potential which gets stoked every so often by the Oz media.
2 would have happened by now if it was going to happen imo.
Worth a punt at $3.00.
Prefer to keep my powder dry for the opportunities ahead.
Eying one which could be a double bagger by year end - but not just yet.
Beagle
18-05-2022, 09:11 PM
Have I missed anything ?
WOW that price point for Karicare is so much cheaper !! Chinese customers doing it tough are going to lap that up !
Not much more but also record high freight rates, lockdowns in China including at the ports, every increasing encouragement from the CCP to buy Chinese made, geopolitical tension, Chinese housing market in absolute freefall and some stupid processing facility in Southland that won't make money until 2027.
I think that's about it but I've probably forgotten a few things myself.
Was trading on the same metrics in the good old days when it was growing strongly. Why anyone would pay 29 times this years earnings with all those headwinds and class action lawsuits is beyond my comprehension. Go figure ?
Probably get a 3 handle at some stage I reckon.
Balance
18-05-2022, 09:16 PM
Bell Porter (previously very bullish) downgraded A2M last week :
https://www.fool.com.au/2022/05/09/a2-milk-share-price-sinks-to-multi-year-low-following-broker-downgrade/
Next results due in August could be a shocker - watch that cash position carefully.
That’s when the $3.00 could be a reality for the holders.
Beagle
18-05-2022, 09:26 PM
Plenty more downgrades to come I reckon. Looking at average growth forecasts for FY23 and FY24 they look far too optimistic to me.
Habits
18-05-2022, 09:57 PM
Plenty more downgrades to come I reckon. Looking at average growth forecasts for FY23 and FY24 they look far too optimistic to me.
Emit lliw llet
Time will tell .... but you need a rear vision mirror to read it.
Sideshow Bob
19-05-2022, 09:24 AM
Blackrock back again...
370859.pdf (nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com) (http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/ATM/392301/370859.pdf)
stoploss
26-05-2022, 06:31 AM
Looks like a bit of arbitrage while it lasted , not sure about making money out of babies in developing countries.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/this-exorbitant-wealth-was-not-earned-it-was-swindled-florida-trio-sentenced-to-18-years-in-prison-for-200-million-baby-formula-export-scam-11653331970
Plenty more downgrades to come I reckon. Looking at average growth forecasts for FY23 and FY24 they look far too optimistic to me.
Sounds like a lonely buck might be a future prospect then ?
Or will the Chinese step in with a takeout before then, also inspiring Fonterra into a bidding war to try to
get to milk what's left of the carcass ? ;)
Wai Wai
29-05-2022, 03:28 PM
https://twitter.com/POTUS/status/1530253441708314626?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5 Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1530253441708314626%7Ctwgr% 5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fs9e.github.io%2Fiframe%2Ftwi tter.min.html1530253441708314626
Massive formula order for BUBs BUB.ASX according to Jo Biden
Bubs market cap A$297 mil with wide open register
Cheap entry into USA for ATM with bonus of proper marketing and distribution model in China
Just saying
aperitif
29-05-2022, 10:28 PM
https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2022/05/28/statement-by-press-secretary-karine-jean-pierre-on-president-bidens-meeting-with-prime-minister-jacinda-ardern-of-new-zealand/
mike2020
30-05-2022, 06:57 AM
What if anything would Fonterra gain? Any A2 supplier can change who they supply. I still don't see what ATM actually have that cannot be replicated. Given what Fonterra have been through in the last 10 years I just can't see a single supplier supporting an acquisition of a troubled company with a ton of litigation pending. At least you used the word carcass in context.
Pablo
30-05-2022, 11:23 AM
BUB.ASX up 28% in pre trading, will ATM get in on the action ?
Pablo
30-05-2022, 11:32 AM
https://cdn.fbsbx.com/v/t59.2708-21/284897800_753241679006003_209440184132423983_n.pdf/2526153.pdf?_nc_cat=100&ccb=1-7&_nc_sid=0cab14&_nc_ohc=arhAJWRB5RAAX9FntY-&_nc_ht=cdn.fbsbx.com&oh=03_AVLqprmpL0V2OO9AJ-5emjNwkB9citDNM0sSPjZa3jbR6Q&oe=6295F3B1&dl=1
News from Bubs, in case anyone else got a few of these in the bottom draw.
JohnnyTheHorse
30-05-2022, 11:55 AM
Could see another one of those big trend days, with a gap up open and then grind up as short stops get hit.
whatsup
30-05-2022, 12:22 PM
Up 9 % so far today!
Maxtrade
30-05-2022, 12:24 PM
Could see another one of those big trend days, with a gap up open and then grind up as short stops get hit.
On the money with that call JTH. From what level do you see retracement kicking in today? Or continued rally all day pushing up to just shy of 5.60?
Depends on how ASX market trades over next hour or so
carrom74
30-05-2022, 12:29 PM
I can understand why BUBS is rising-what a fantastic update! but cannot fathom why A2 rising...Nothing reported since Feb-except class actions updates.
I guess A2 does not even want to get into the US mud slush...
I can understand why BUBS is rising-what a fantastic update! but cannot fathom why A2 rising...Nothing reported since Feb-except class actions updates.
I guess A2 does not even want to get into the US mud slush...
Perhaps no news is good news as market priced in a downgrade since the Shanghai lockdown. Could be that it’s not all that bad.
Don’t think they would like to pursue US opportunity as they may not get premium price in that market as they currently get in China.
And also it’s short term demand spike due to shortage in US.
winner69
30-05-2022, 12:33 PM
Guy on radio -
Mike Joy: It takes up to 11,000 litres of water to dilute the pollution caused by the production of 1 litre of milk on Canterbury farms. To add insult to injury nearly all the milk with this huge water footprint is then dried with coal for export as powder for junk food & breastmilk replacement.
Enough to put you off investing in such a companies as A2 and Synlait .... even though the coal bit is going away
mike2020
30-05-2022, 12:53 PM
Wait till you find out how much water they use to make the milk to start with.
carrom74
30-05-2022, 01:16 PM
Perhaps no news is good news as market priced in a downgrade since the Shanghai lockdown. Could be that it’s not all that bad.
Don’t think they would like to pursue US opportunity as they may not get premium price in that market as they currently get in China.
And also it’s short term demand spike due to shortage in US.
Agreed and could be also for the following reasons...
1.618 festival coming soon
2.Minor Daigou resurgence
3.Having a tight inventory control(who would forget a $100M right off last year)
4.Conservative pricing.
Sideshow Bob
30-05-2022, 01:18 PM
Wait till you find out how much water they use to make the milk to start with.
At least almond milk they just add in 95% water. Each almond takes 5 lites of water to grow. Lucky there is only the equivalent of 25 of them in a litre of almond milk!! :scared:
aperitif
30-05-2022, 03:52 PM
https://dsf.newscorpaustralia.com/theaustralian/subscription/
A2 CEO David Bortolussi confirms the company has submitted an application to the US FDA last week
kiwico
30-05-2022, 04:00 PM
Guy on radio -
Mike Joy: It takes up to 11,000 litres of water to dilute the pollution caused by the production of 1 litre of milk on Canterbury farms. To add insult to injury nearly all the milk with this huge water footprint is then dried with coal for export as powder for junk food & breastmilk replacement.
It's the use of the "up to" that means it's a nonsense number. Not an estimate or a best guess, but the worst they could possibly think it might be. Just like when you go to a shop with an up to 60% off sale but the highest discount you can find is 10%.
mike2020
30-05-2022, 04:13 PM
It's the use of the "up to" that means it's a nonsense number. Not an estimate or a best guess, but the worst they could possibly think it might be. Just like when you go to a shop with an up to 60% off sale but the highest discount you can find is 10%.
It is an interesting situation, as an ex dairy farmer and a keen fresh water fisherman I have gathered a lot of information and there are some damning reports out there that DON'T make it into the public arena. Instead of reducing nitrates in the Rakia they just doubled the level they considered acceptable to well above what is considered safe internationally. Big tobacco all over again. Resident trout population went from 200,000 to 2,000 while cow numbers went from 15000 to 1,500,000 over 20 years.
https://dsf.newscorpaustralia.com/theaustralian/subscription/
A2 CEO David Bortolussi confirms the company has submitted an application to the US FDA last week
Can’t access the link, could you please provide a screenshot of the article perhaps, thx.
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