ATM - A2 Milk Corporation Limited

[aperitif]

Can’t access the link, could you please provide a screenshot of the article perhaps, thx.

13857

There you go, hopefully a catalyst for their struggling US fresh milk business

[sb9]

13857

There you go, hopefully a catalyst for their struggling US fresh milk business

Thanks, is that in today’s Australian, thought they would’ve released an announcement to the markets to that affect.

[Jasemc]

Maybe Prime minister will announce something this week with the president?

[dobby41]

Maybe Prime minister will announce something this week with the president?

Unlikely .

[Jasemc]

No market announcement that they going for accreditation.You would think they might of released it.

[Maxtrade]

No market announcement that they going for accreditation.You would think they might of released it.

Would make sense for them to. But still many hurdles ahead and no guarantee's at all. Bubs is one step in front already. Bit of excitement jumped the SP high yesterday, will be telling to see if can maintain or with the next little bit of not so good news we see SP rapidly retrace and loose its 10% gain just as easily. That seems to be the way it is for ATM these days. If anything actually gained valid new contracts would be the time to look for any recovery in ATM, but at this stage still far too much speculation, guesswork, and hope. Not a good investment strategy.

[winner69]

No market announcement that they going for accreditation.You would think they might of released it.

If they did announce and it didn’t happen another class action lol

Ramping frowned upon

[Golfer01]

If they did announce and it didn’t happen another class action lol

Ramping frowned upon

agree. bitten several times so best not to say too much. Actions will speak louder than words. Joe will go to twitter and announce it after he's had a chin wag with Jacinda...

[Sideshow Bob]

All of Synlaits plants have US Food & Drug Administration Certifcate of Registration.

Do they have to get the product approved as well? Anyone know the procedure??

[Sideshow Bob]

Further on the US Infant Milk applications:

US formula crisis: ANZ firms encouraged by Bubs’ success (nutraingredients-asia.com) (https://www.nutraingredients-asia.com/Article/2022/06/06/us-formula-crisis-anz-firms-encouraged-by-bubs-success?utm_source=newsletter_daily&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=07-Jun-2022&cid=DM1007531&bid=1955980359)

[Balance]

Further on the US Infant Milk applications:

US formula crisis: ANZ firms encouraged by Bubs’ success (nutraingredients-asia.com) (https://www.nutraingredients-asia.com/Article/2022/06/06/us-formula-crisis-anz-firms-encouraged-by-bubs-success?utm_source=newsletter_daily&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=07-Jun-2022&cid=DM1007531&bid=1955980359)

Abbott's plant back up and running so matter of months when US can supply its own needs again.


https://www.just-food.com/news/abbott-infant-formula-shipments-expected-in-two-weeks-as-michigan-factory-reopens/

[aperitif]

As a parent, would you trust Abbott IF products again? I know my answer

[GTM 3442]

As a parent, would you trust Abbott IF products again? I know my answer


Oh, people forget stuff over time, and life trundles on much as before.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-newzealand-milk-fonterra-idUSBRE97S16720130829

[whatsup]

I read on Aust's H C A2M posting that the FDA approved A2M selling into the U S until Nov 2022, but nothing on the S Her atm, !! ?

[Baa_Baa]

I read on Aust's H C A2M posting that the FDA approved A2M selling into the U S until Nov 2022, but nothing on the S Her atm, !! ?

Link please, TIA

[aperitif]

https://www.fda.gov/food/cfsan-constituent-updates/fda-provide-flexibility-manufacturers-increase-infant-formula-supplies

[Balance]

I read on Aust's H C A2M posting that the FDA approved A2M selling into the U S until Nov 2022, but nothing on the S Her atm, !! ?

Looks like a ram raid job of the ramp & dump variety?

Hope no one fell for it.

[Baa_Baa]

Looks like a ram raid job of the ramp & dump variety?

Hope no one fell for it.

There's some random post linking to a Chinese website that's saying A2 has approval to ship IF to USA. It's rubbish, although A2 Milk have applied, approval has not yet been granted. Here's the FDA approved IF imports under the USA 'Enforcement Discretion' (https://www.fda.gov/food/infant-formula-guidance-documents-regulatory-information/enforcement-discretion-manufacturers-increase-infant-formula-supplies) If A2 get approved, they'll go onto that list.

[ralph]

I was watching the T V last night & I see they are advertising the A 2 milk again ,must be to pay for the flatulence's tax

[nztx]

The water went out fast today -0.45 -9.04% -- there you have it all the Aussie shorters on holiday :)

[Maxtrade]

The water went out fast today -0.45 -9.04% -- there you have it all the Aussie shorters on holiday :)

A couple more similar dips and we might see that $3.50 range tested as several participants oaths thread have been advocating for some time. Yikes, must have nerves of steal for those to still be holding at this point.

[Azz]

I am waiting for A2M to hit $2.50 and then, it's BUY BUY BUY!

Balance, looks like you and I are both "ex-holders who did well". I'm interested in the $2.50 buy comment because I had a similar idea and then thought maybe even such a very low price is still a risky price. I need to do more research - but it is possible that this company could go under?

[Balance]

Balance, looks like you and I are both "ex-holders who did well". I'm interested in the $2.50 buy comment because I had a similar idea and then thought maybe even such a very low price is still a risky price. I need to do more research - but it is possible that this company could go under?

It is sitting still on over $500m cash, has no debt and is profitable.

I do not see it going under but I do see its profitability continuing to come under pressure from markets dynamics (declining birthrate in its biggest markets, increased competition and higher costs).

Back of envelope calculations done by Beagle and I last year assessed ATM to be worth $2.75 and we were laughed at. It’s not that far off!

So $2.50 will be a good price and a good level for a takeover play.

[Azz]

It is sitting still on over $500m cash, has no debt and is profitable.

I do not see it going under but I do see its profitability continuing to come under pressure from markets dynamics (declining birthrate in its biggest markets, increased competition and higher costs).

Back of envelope calculations done by Beagle and I last year assessed ATM to be worth $2.75 and we were laughed at. It’s not that far off!

So $2.50 will be a good price and a good level for a takeover play.

Balance, thanks. I'll check those; pretty sure I had similar when I did it a while back. Book value will be hit at a certain point with cashflow & profit protecting it. BUT, there's something - negative - that I can't quite put my finger on about this company now and I'm not having much luck bringing it to the surface. Something is off.

[couta1]

Balance, thanks. I'll check those; pretty sure I had similar when I did it a while back. Book value will be hit at a certain point with cashflow & profit protecting it. BUT, there's something - negative - that I can't quite put my finger on about this company now and I'm not having much luck bringing it to the surface. Something is off. Its a one trick pony with a wardrobe full of skeletons methinks, your answer is in that wardrobe.

[Azz]

Its a one trick pony with a wardrobe full of skeletons methinks, your answer is in that wardrobe.

Yes it certainly could be!

[sb9]

Abbott's plant back up and running so matter of months when US can supply its own needs again.


https://www.just-food.com/news/abbott-infant-formula-shipments-expected-in-two-weeks-as-michigan-factory-reopens/


Baby formula production halted at Abbott's Michigan plant due to flooding after severe storms

https://www.foxbusiness.com/lifestyle/abbott-baby-formula-production-halted-michigan-plant-storms

[sb9]

Bubs Aus (BUB) has upgraded their earnings today on back of strong China demand, bodes well for the sector.

[flyinglizard]

The unemployment rate for age 16-24 Chinese is 18.4% in April. No job no babies......

[X-men]

Chinese are not stupid...not like young kiwis...keep popping babies without future plans.

Chinese plan thier future, especially with family n kids...big decision...most of them want the best for thier kids.

Not like kiwis...just pop the babies...worry about it later...no money..no problems...stay home...claim government...claim everything..keep breeding

[longy]

Chinese are not stupid...not like young kiwis...keep popping babies without future plans.

Chinese plan thier future, especially with family n kids...big decision...most of them want the best for thier kids.

Not like kiwis...just pop the babies...worry about it later...no money..no problems...stay home...claim government...claim everything..keep breeding

I could be wrong here but isn't it the rich in China more likely to have more kids... But I am pretty it is opposite here in NZ.

[Habits]

Not like kiwis...just pop the babies...worry about it later...no money..no problems...stay home...claim government...claim everything..keep breeding

If you have daughters make sure they dont know about this option until they already have the work ethic mindset. My youngest was 21 and she was astounded to find out the rorts

[ralph]

If you have daughters make sure they dont know about this option until they already have the work ethic mindset. My youngest was 21 and she was astounded to find out the rorts

If this was a reality for all Kiwis then we would not be so desperate for immigrants to come here to supplement our declining birth rate ,plus its only the wealthy Chinese parents buying imported N Z Infant formula not the poor and as longy said they will still be able to afford to replenish their stocks

[X-men]

Lol...u all live in lala land... denial just like Jacinda. Come to Rotorua....come n see what kiwis call them..."homeless" aka lazy people

[nztx]

Lol...u all live in lala land... denial just like Jacinda. Come to Rotorua....come n see what kiwis call them..."homeless" aka lazy people


They must like the Rua .. did Coffey invite them all in en-masse for a feed and a long stay ? :)

Were the buses subsidised ? Were they all ATM signwritten ? ;)

Perhaps 'It never gets cold in Rotorua' appealed - go forth and multiply there .. ? :)

Never mind if there aren't any vacancies at the Bus Stops .. RDC will gladly build more to accomodate
- bring the cussies, whanau, kids, everyone .. pass on the news & invite to all .. anyone all for ATM :)

[Charlie]

Black Rock can in as a holder in Mat buying at around $5 ish....
They must think there is something in it .......

[sb9]

There's some random post linking to a Chinese website that's saying A2 has approval to ship IF to USA. It's rubbish, although A2 Milk have applied, approval has not yet been granted. Here's the FDA approved IF imports under the USA 'Enforcement Discretion' (https://www.fda.gov/food/infant-formula-guidance-documents-regulatory-information/enforcement-discretion-manufacturers-increase-infant-formula-supplies) If A2 get approved, they'll go onto that list.

Seems as though Singapore (Mead Johnson/Reckitt - Base powder to manufacture Enfamil Stage 1) and Ireland (Danone - Aptamil Stage 1) been added to the list over last few days. Hopefully A2 should appear there soon, all depends on how much excess stock available to offer I guess.

[Balance]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/danone-nz-wins-fda-approval-to-export-formula-to-us-ahead-of-fonterra-and-a2-milk/ACFM4PZ6BKI3CV5KOF5GU3K4F4/

Danone NZ received approval to export IF to US.

[Baa_Baa]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/danone-nz-wins-fda-approval-to-export-formula-to-us-ahead-of-fonterra-and-a2-milk/ACFM4PZ6BKI3CV5KOF5GU3K4F4/

Danone NZ received approval to export IF to US.

Anyone interested in tracking the Enforcement Discretion to Manufacturers to Increase Infant Formula Supplies (https://www.fda.gov/food/infant-formula-guidance-documents-regulatory-information/enforcement-discretion-manufacturers-increase-infant-formula-supplies) is updated on the day approvals are granted. Danone was granted five days ago on 29th June. Coincides nicely with Aptamil's retail roll out in US during July.

[Habits]

No bull .... Bulls / heifers (young females) found wandering the city, near the WINTECH perhaps looking to enrol

Hamilton City Council turns cattle wrangler | Stuff.co.nz
https://i.stuff.co.nz/national/129169835/hamilton-city-council-turns-cattle-wrangler

[sb9]

Below from BUB's latest quarterly update released today, bodes very well for A2.


China: up 523% pcp, contributing 64% of quarterly sales
- Corporate Daigou sales were up 1,201% pcp and CBEC sales were up 20% pcp

[aperitif]

https://www.stats.govt.nz/information-releases/overseas-merchandise-trade-june-2022/

[Azz]

Balance, have you changed your target buy price on A2? Or same as you mentioned, maybe a month back?

[sb9]

As per AFR, A2 approval to sell IF in US could come as early as this week. Looks like market caught onto the news...

[MauroNZ]

what a jump!.

[snigmac]

what a jump!.
Not much of a jump compared to the dip. Things could get interesting once people realize that people can't wait forever to have kids as the biological clock will continue to tick over in China. Could be alot of demand in the next 2/3 in US and China for premium milk power.

[winner69]

what a jump!.

Enough to push the NZX50 into positive territory

[winner69]

As per AFR, A2 approval to sell IF in US could come as early as this week. Looks like market caught onto the news...

Share price over 6 bucks by end of day on ASX at this rate

Hope you on board for the ride

[whatsup]

Why the T H ?

[Baa_Baa]

Why the T H ?

Let's guess. FDA Approval.
Your turn.

[flyer]

Why the T H ?
Oh, is that why my BUY was rejected

[whatsup]

Judging by the trading of the last 45 minutes some ones knew something as the S P went up some .40 + ?

[martinchnz1]

Isn't that sort of overly high bidding extremely suspicious for insider trading especially right before a trading halt... Would think all those trades will get looked at by FMA

[waikare]

ASX

2 August 2022
NZX/ASX Market Release
a2MC notes and responds to media speculation
The a2 Milk Company (a2MC, the Company) notes a media article that has appeared online in the Australian
Financial Review today that suggests that the Company is nearing approval from the US Food and Drug
Administration (FDA) to allow a2MC to import infant milk formula products into the US and that such approval
could be received “as soon as this week”.
The Company wishes to confirm that while we have been informed by the FDA that our application is under active
review, at this stage there is no certainty as to the outcome of the application or the timing of any approval.

[Baa_Baa]

Isn't the sort of overly high bidding extremely suspicious for insider trading especially right before a trading halt... Would think all those trades get looked at by FMA

No conspiracy here, AFR published a couple of articles today, one was no contract with the largest corporate daigou in Oz and the other was speculating on an FDA decision possibly this week.

Market reacts, very quickly. Company calls a halt, to clarify situation. I reckon they know about the FDA decision but FDA haven't announced it, so company gives them a couple of days to announce before lifting the halt.

Could be wrong of course, but the wording on the TH notices and market release imply 'new information' is available that they can't talk about right now.

[martinchnz1]

No conspiracy here, AFR published a couple of articles today, one was no contract with the largest corporate daigou in Oz and the other was speculating on an FDA decision possibly this week.

Market reacts, very quickly. Company calls a halt, to clarify situation. I reckon they know about the FDA decision but FDA haven't announced it, so company gives them a couple of days to announce before lifting the halt.

Could be wrong of course, but the wording on the TH notices and market release imply 'new information' is available that they can't talk about right now.

Ah gotcha, so the TH is to literally stop the market going bananas on the rumours?

[petty]

No conspiracy here, AFR published a couple of articles today, one was no contract with the largest corporate daigou in Oz and the other was speculating on an FDA decision possibly this week.

Market reacts, very quickly. Company calls a halt, to clarify situation. I reckon they know about the FDA decision but FDA haven't announced it, so company gives them a couple of days to announce before lifting the halt.

Could be wrong of course, but the wording on the TH notices and market release imply 'new information' is available that they can't talk about right now.


I don’t have AFR access but what’s the highlight of why the corporate Daigou has stopped buying?

[JohnnyTheHorse]

Good short squeeze yesterday. Longs need to keep the pressure on this morning.

[JohnnyTheHorse]

Good short squeeze yesterday. Longs need to keep the pressure on this morning.

Failed below high of yesterday. Flipped short on that failure, as I expect this news should have been largely priced in already (i.e. it was just a matter of time before being announced).

[Lease]

Failed below high of yesterday. Flipped short on that failure, as I expect this news should have been largely priced in already (i.e. it was just a matter of time before being announced).

It won't. When BUB confirmed FDA approval, its SP shot up by 30% on the day. If FDA approved A2 application, its sp would go up, maybe not 30%, but 10-15% up for sure.

[JohnnyTheHorse]

It won't. When BUB confirmed FDA approval, its SP shot up by 30% on the day. If FDA approved A2 application, its sp would go up, maybe not 30%, but 10-15% up for sure.

That's when this was all new. BUB much smaller company, so larger relative impact. At this point who is expecting that this won't get approved? No one, so it's priced in.

It must break the high of the short squeeze and get follow through, or this will drift back down imo.

[silverblizzard888]

That's when this was all new. BUB much smaller company, so larger relative impact. At this point who is expecting that this won't get approved? No one, so it's priced in.

It must break the high of the short squeeze and get follow through, or this will drift back down imo.

I think some expectations of an approval is baked in, but only with the view that its a short term boost. If they can come back and announce a long term pathway then thats a game changer.

[Baa_Baa]

Closed a few clicks above the early June highs, and 30% up from the May bottom low, trending nicely in the right direction. TA is a pullback from the 200EMA resistance today, time for a breather. Reporting soon.

[JohnnyTheHorse]

The bulls have got it. That's an important break and should really start to see continued sustained short covering.

[sb9]

The bulls have got it. That's an important break and should really start to see continued sustained short covering.

For sure, looks like stars might be finally aligning for A2 after difficult 2 years or so. DB seem to have steered ship reasonably well after taking charge at very tumultuous time.

[flyer]

Saw an job ad advertising for production workers on a 24hr (2 x 12hr shifts) making baby formula.

[dobby41]

Saw an job ad advertising for production workers on a 24hr (2 x 12hr shifts) making baby formula.

Who are they selling it to I wonder.
The US will be temporary - just soak up a bit of the excess they already have.

[Golfer01]

Who are they selling it to I wonder.
The US will be temporary - just soak up a bit of the excess they already have.

Big demand in China (child & toddler IF - all those babies from 2 years ago are growing up). Ozzie screaming for it. USA will be on-going (if A2 wants to continue supply) once FDA approval is given. Good times are on the way IMO.

[JohnnyTheHorse]

Saw an job ad advertising for production workers on a 24hr (2 x 12hr shifts) making baby formula.

Dairy is a 24/7 operation. Over spring you will have nearly every single factory in the country running at maximum capacity. The milk is there and something must be done with it. Not a good indicator of demand.

[bull....]

bad news

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/ATM/396696/376218.pdf


timber :scared:

[dreamcatcher]

Appears currently US has enough suppliers ..........

The a2 Milk Company (a2MC, the Company) wishes to advise that earlier today it received notification from the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) that, at this time, the FDA is deferring further consideration of the Company’s request for enforcement discretion to import infant milk formula (IMF) products into the US.

The Company has also subsequently been advised by the International Dairy Foods Association (IDFA) that equivalent letters have been sent to all pending enforcement discretion applicants, indicating that the FDA is deferring any further review at this time of all pending applications.

Authorised for release by
David Bortolussi

[Wai Wai]

Bubs mkt cap NZ$ 500m looking underpriced
ATM Mkt Cap 4100mlooking overpriced
Bubs register wide open with short term FDA approval and long term entrance under consideration
A scrip plus cash bid for Bubs at a 20% premium would attract Bubs shareholders and could well be value accretive for ATM
In meantime surely ATM should pick a few cheap BUBs up in the market?

[dreamcatcher]

Bubs mkt cap NZ$ 500m looking underpriced
ATM Mkt Cap 4100mlooking overpriced
Bubs register wide open with short term FDA approval and long term entrance under consideration
A scrip plus cash bid for Bubs at a 20% premium would attract Bubs shareholders and could well be value accretive for ATM
In meantime surely ATM should pick a few cheap BUBs up in the market?

My understanding is Bubs already approved beyond Nov

[silverblizzard888]

Not the outcome many were looking for from the FDA, but given everyone thought it would be a short term supply anyway it wasn't a big loss by this outlook (though of course it dashes the long term potential many hoped A2 would have in the US), though with the international market opening up again, overall sentiment for A2 is positive.

Share price has been sold down in panic, but has bounced back a little for those who realise the overall picture and value the company still has.

[sb9]

Not the outcome many were looking for from the FDA, but given everyone thought it would be a short term supply anyway it wasn't a big loss by this outlook (though of course it dashes the long term potential many hoped A2 would have in the US), though with the international market opening up again, overall sentiment for A2 is positive.

Share price has been sold down in panic, but has bounced back a little for those who realise the overall picture and value the company still has.

Yeah, big yawn to FDA. Who cares its only a short term measure and also unsure how much A2 was willing to commit as volume, which wouldn't have been huge.

[Maxtrade]

Not the outcome many were looking for from the FDA, but given everyone thought it would be a short term supply anyway it wasn't a big loss by this outlook (though of course it dashes the long term potential many hoped A2 would have in the US), though with the international market opening up again, overall sentiment for A2 is positive.

Share price has been sold down in panic, but has bounced back a little for those who realise the overall picture and value the company still has.

The recent rally in ATM was purely associated with the potential of US market entry. Saying that has not come to fruition, makes sense the SP will now decline back to where it was prior to the excitement of pending FDA approval. More than likely a gradual decline to follow on its way back down to $4.80 NZD

[silverblizzard888]

Yeah, big yawn to FDA. Who cares its only a short term measure and also unsure how much A2 was willing to commit as volume, which wouldn't have been huge.

FDA still looking after their own, they have only let in mostly smaller companies in to fill supply. I think we thought that given A2 was supplying milk there, that supplying infant formula wasn't too far of a stretch, turns out it is. Best to focus on easier entry markets and better creativity in expanding the companies product range, production efficiencies and possible acquisitions.

Now to see how management have been handling things when the next set of financials come out at the end of the month.

[silverblizzard888]

The recent rally in ATM was purely associated with the potential of US market entry. Saying that has not come to fruition, makes sense the SP will now decline back to where it was prior to the excitement of pending FDA approval. More than likely a gradual decline to follow on its way back down to $4.80 NZD

Yes likely the case for those who bought in with the hope to see that FDA approval boost, all heads will be looking at the ASX when it opens. With financials coming out soon it should cushion the blow a little with those buying in hope of a good result.

[Ottiehund]

I would be asking why management had never applied for FDA approval for formula anyway when they first established their operations in the US, wouldn't that have been a logical thing to have done as a matter of course (to include your main product in the approvals for a new market)..... seems to me management have dropped the ball again.

[bull....]

I would be asking why management had never applied for FDA approval for formula anyway when they first established their operations in the US, wouldn't that have been a logical thing to have done as a matter of course (to include your main product in the approvals for a new market)..... seems to me management have dropped the ball again.

they probably havnt applied because US market for infant formula is a monopoly controlled by a few players. add to that the regs and tarrifs and wic programme controlled by these monopolies and its probably near on impossible to break into this market for infant formula

[silverblizzard888]

I wonder why they haven't gone after Canada or the UK where the population mindset would have similarities as Australia and the same success could be replicated. It seems the bigger the companies gotten the more they are only focused towards big markets and ignored the easier and smaller markets to dominate.

[Balance]

I wonder why they haven't gone after Canada or the UK where the population mindset would have similarities as Australia and the same success could be replicated. It seems the bigger the companies gotten the more they are only focused towards big markets and ignored the easier and smaller markets to dominate.

NZ companies like to think they can compete and be successful when they set up in the big markets. Very few do and most end up dead or with their tails between their legs.

[Baa_Baa]

I wonder why they haven't gone after Canada or the UK where the population mindset would have similarities as Australia and the same success could be replicated. It seems the bigger the companies gotten the more they are only focused towards big markets and ignored the easier and smaller markets to dominate.

They went after the UK and pulled out after failing to gain significant market share and reoccurring losses. They are in Canada already but I think only with milk products, like they are in the USA via 12,000 retail outlets.

[Ottiehund]

I wonder why they haven't gone after Canada or the UK where the population mindset would have similarities as Australia and the same success could be replicated. It seems the bigger the companies gotten the more they are only focused towards big markets and ignored the easier and smaller markets to dominate.

They have been in the UK - 2017 annual report says "There is, meanwhile, significant potential for further growth in our priority markets in Australia, China, the United States and the United Kingdom"

2019 Annual Report refers: "Volume sales of a2 Milk™ branded fresh milk increased by more than 50% against the previous year through gains in distribution and in-store sales velocity.However, the UK continues to be a challenging market to achieve scale"

By 2020 the operations seem to have been discontinued.

[silverblizzard888]

Oh thats true they did go after the UK a while back, then it seems they should stop with the liquid milk chase as its not where the margins are and hard to win with branding. They should double down on an infant formula strategy where the real margins are, especially given the success they reaped in China and the profits it brought.

They have nearly a billion in cash and assets they could use if they wanted, time to get creative!

[carrom74]

Oh thats true they did go after the UK a while back, then it seems they should stop with the liquid milk chase as its not where the margins are and hard to win with branding. They should double down on an infant formula strategy where the real margins are, especially given the success they reaped in China and the profits it brought.

They have nearly a billion in cash and assets they could use if they wanted, time to get creative!

US is a highly fragmented market and its been a while since A2 went there and still incurring losses...

Lets face it... Chinese market were at one point making 32% margins which will never happen in the US. The proof is in the pudding...

FDA story is still on a small base and short term.. so no fuss on the deferral.

Wonder why they haven't entered the Middle eastern market...(with innovative cheese based products-They love cheese!)

[peat]

FDA still looking after their own, they have only let in mostly smaller companies in to fill supply

Bubs doesnt seem to have been impacted.


I thought HrdLicka worked the US

[Baa_Baa]

Bubs doesnt seem to have been impacted.


I thought HrdLicka worked the US

Does that even make sense? What are you trying to say? Bubs is a tiny outfit, they got FDA approval and it's probably material to their revenue. If ATM got approval, it wouldn't be material to revenue and they've said so, except maybe a foot in the door for IF into USA ongoing. It's been deferred like all applicants, not rejected, there's a difference. What has the previous long-gone CEO got to do with? Not sure where you're coming from.

[silverblizzard888]

This article sheds more light from the FDA of why A2 Milks application was deferred, however Fonterra's application was not: https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/nzs-a2-milk-says-fda-deferred-request-supply-baby-formula-2022-08-09/

Fonterra, however, told Reuters that it had not yet received any such notice from the FDA itself.

An FDA spokesperson told Reuters in an email response that the FDA had sent letters to some firms, not all, deferring further reviews of applications due to a list of issues.

"For firms that received letters, they do not mean that the infant formulas are unsafe; rather, they indicate that we have found issues that would unlikely be resolved quickly," the spokesperson said.

[bull....]

i think this aus company got into the US and it sell's a2 milk

https://carea2plus.com/about-us/

At Care A2+ it’s our mission to care more. Care for the health and wellbeing
of children while caring for the impact on mother nature’s environment. We use
single sourced Australian grass fed A2 cows milk. We are the first to add Lactoferrin
in our formulas.

[MauroNZ]

NZ companies like to think they can compete and be successful when they set up in the big markets. Very few do and most end up dead or with their tails between their legs.

Most likely if their top managers have zero international background which seems very common.

[alokdhir]

Most likely if their top managers have zero international background which seems very common.

Most should learn from the likes of FPH and MFT's International expertise

[Maxtrade]

I would be asking why management had never applied for FDA approval for formula anyway when they first established their operations in the US, wouldn't that have been a logical thing to have done as a matter of course (to include your main product in the approvals for a new market)..... seems to me management have dropped the ball again.

Yes, but we all know about A2 milk management. The reason the share price is down where it is now from $20. And the reason they have several class action lawsuits against them. Which by the way does anyone who is in them have any updates about?

[sb9]

Looks like FDA news as of y'day was storm in a tea cup. Market more interested in bigger picture of earnings, leave those FDA muppets to their own fate. Who cares about small earnings from that channel for short term and at next to nothing margin. My guess is that DB would've asked for longer term supply relationship beyond Nov'22 and don't think FDA would've been keen on that idea.

[aperitif]

14063

https://youtu.be/Na811tR1gFQ

Kim Kardashian has a2 Milk in her office.

[sb9]

14063

https://youtu.be/Na811tR1gFQ

Nice find, for those time poor its between 2.43-2.47 min time slot in the youtube video...

[Rawz]

Nice find, for those time poor its between 2.43-2.47 min time slot in the youtube video...

thanks.. i wouldnt want to spend more than 4 secs watching a Kardashian lol

[sb9]

thanks.. i wouldnt want to spend more than 4 secs watching a Kardashian lol

Haha me neither, hence dragged the fast forward button to get to relevant bit...

[silu]

14063

https://youtu.be/Na811tR1gFQ

Kim Kardashian has a2 Milk in her office.

But holding it in her hand and endorsing it would probably cost 5 mil minimum.

[Ggcc]

Nice find, for those time poor its between 2.43-2.47 min time slot in the youtube video...
Thanks. Her voice is so irritating. She is super successful and I congratulate her on that, but I can’t deal too well with people who talk that way.

[Habits]

Thanks. Her voice is so irritating. She is super successful and I congratulate her on that, but I can’t deal too well with people who talk that way.

Kind of silky with the soft background mus

[Ggcc]

Kind of silky with the soft background mus
Silky as in nails on a chalk board, then yes silky.

[Mel]

Results:
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/397774

and we know what they're doing with some of the cash their sitting on, announcement of a share buyback:
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/397773

[sb9]

Results:
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/397774

and we know what they're doing with some of the cash their sitting on, announcement of a share buyback:
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/397773

Nice set of numbers in there contrary to consensus expectations and credible performance under trying conditions.

[Baa_Baa]

Excellent results, beats consensus: http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/ATM/397774/377792.pdf

$ 1.446 billion revenue +19.8%
$ 122.6 million net profit +52%
$ 150 million share buyback

[alokdhir]

ATM on fire ...now surely the worst is over ...No going back below $ 5 !!!

[Paint it Black]

ATM on fire ...now surely the worst is over ...No going back below $ 5 !!!

One would hope not with the DCF at $7.18. Good to see a weaning off China and more diversity.

[alokdhir]

One would hope not with the DCF at $7.18. Good to see a weaning off China and more diversity.

If they can manage IF business of USA also then really they can fly faster ...maybe soon soon

[BlackPeter]

One would hope not with the DCF at $7.18. Good to see a weaning off China and more diversity.

Hmm - any DCF is just as good as the underlying assumptions it is based on. Might be worthwhile to check them and remember how many people are able to predict not just the economic conditions for the next ten years with any accuracy, but who know as well exactly how the big political games will evolve over that time and how consumer demand will develop.

Let us know when you meet somebody who knows :p;

Until then - this is an agricultural company supplying a product consumers can do very well without (as the last year nicely demonstrated). Their target market is shrinking (less and less Chinese babies and less well off Chinese parents) and subject to huge risks in the geo political game.

Their alternative market (the US - plan B) is still loosing money and nobody knows where it will go.

Established agricultural companies sell typcially for an average PE of 10 (considering the cyclical nature of their earnings), ATM's PE is still above 30.

2 dear 4 me - and in my view still plenty of further hype deflation potential in the SP.

[winner69]

If they can manage IF business of USA also then really they can fly faster ...maybe soon soon

Hey alokdhir - A2 'normalisation' happening faster than FPH 'normalisation'

At least A2 sales growth now positive and looking good ..... and it seems that both A2 nd FPH will never make margins of old

A2 result a good sign what can happen to FPH next year

[Lease]

Looks the worst is over. If everything goes with plan, next year EPS will be around 21C. If they can achieve medium-term ambition($2b sales, EBITDA margin at low-to-mid 20s), EPS will be 40C, SP will be over $10.

[sb9]

Looking to break into $6 range, but for the schizophrenic US markets, would've got there easily...

[Paint it Black]

Hmm - any DCF is just as good as the underlying assumptions it is based on. Might be worthwhile to check them and remember how many people are able to predict not just the economic conditions for the next ten years with any accuracy, but who know as well exactly how the big political games will evolve over that time and how consumer demand will develop.

Let us know when you meet somebody who knows :p;

Until then - this is an agricultural company supplying a product consumers can do very well without (as the last year nicely demonstrated). Their target market is shrinking (less and less Chinese babies and less well off Chinese parents) and subject to huge risks in the geo political game.

Their alternative market (the US - plan B) is still loosing money and nobody knows where it will go.

Established agricultural companies sell typcially for an average PE of 10 (considering the cyclical nature of their earnings), ATM's PE is still above 30.

2 dear 4 me - and in my view still plenty of further hype deflation potential in the SP.

Agree DCF relies on forecasted earnings etc but it also uses a discount rate which is related to the opportunity cost of capital in which A2 is far better placed that the likes of F&P which is in debt and has a DCF currently slightly below it's current SP. DCF vs SP is another tool used by serious investors which imho is worth checking before investing.

[Sideshow Bob]

Looking to break into $6 range, but for the schizophrenic US markets, would've got there easily...

$6.01 now.....

[sb9]

$6.01 now.....

Yeah, first target from hereon is $6.31 which was the high point at release of FH results on 21/02. All depends of Analysts' recommendations post their conf call today.

[sb9]

Closed almost at day’s of 5.40 on ASX. Looking good in the short term.

[bull....]

long way to go to get back to the glory days.
pe of 33 - 34 expensive if the the road to glory again has a pothole

[sb9]

long way to go to get back to the glory days.
pe of 33 - 34 expensive if the the road to glory again has a pothole

For sure, its long uphill to get back to previous glory. However, they've stabilized the business model now and have more control around inventory and other key metrics.

[xafalcon]

Class action participation being advertised on the radio yesterday

[BlackPeter]

For sure, its long uphill to get back to previous glory. However, they've stabilized the business model now and have more control around inventory and other key metrics.

OK - so lets take it, they are now a hopefully stable agricultural producer with a PE above 30. Given that they moved more and more from marketing (easy and cheap scalable) to production (much more expensive to scale), what are they worth if they maintain their current earnings (plus or minus the phase of the cycle)?

I don't see them defaulting, but I don't see them grow a lot either ... unless there are some more hype peaks (and troughs) to come ... but hey, hype is like earthquakes ... there always are some more aftershocks to come. Just make sure to time them correctly :) ;

[silverblizzard888]

All eyes will be on acquisition targets, if they can spend their hundreds of millions on something that generates a good profit then very quickly the stock price has $10 potential in it this year.

[Lease]

Hmm - any DCF is just as good as the underlying assumptions it is based on. Might be worthwhile to check them and remember how many people are able to predict not just the economic conditions for the next ten years with any accuracy, but who know as well exactly how the big political games will evolve over that time and how consumer demand will develop.

Let us know when you meet somebody who knows :p;



Until then - this is an agricultural company supplying a product consumers can do very well without (as the last year nicely demonstrated). Their target market is shrinking (less and less Chinese babies and less well off Chinese parents) and subject to huge risks in the geo political game.

Their alternative market (the US - plan B) is still loosing money and nobody knows where it will go.

Established agricultural companies sell typcially for an average PE of 10 (considering the cyclical nature of their earnings), ATM's PE is still above 30.

2 dear 4 me - and in my view still plenty of further hype deflation potential in the SP.

If you listened to conference call, you'd find birth rate drop is not an issue for ATM.

[Charlie]

BlackRock ( who seem to own half the world ), still have 46mil shares - somebody has faith.

[BlackPeter]

If you listened to conference call, you'd find birth rate drop is not an issue for ATM.

Well, I don't believe in everything people say on conference calls :p ; Looking at facts is much more satisfying.

[Ggcc]

BlackRock ( who seem to own half the world ), still have 46mil shares - somebody has faith.
From memory they also own our DNA from ancestry.com as well.

[Baa_Baa]

Well, I don't believe in everything people say on conference calls :p ; Looking at facts is much more satisfying.

Did you listen to the conference call, oh probably not because you don't believe what they say. Looking at the fact that the SP is up 51% from its lows is much more satisfying.

[BlackPeter]

Did you listen to the conference call, oh probably not because you don't believe what they say. Looking at the fact that the SP is up 51% from its lows is much more satisfying.

Jeez ... did I disturb the nice and fluffy group think? So much owners bias - but fair enough, we all have been there at one stage or another :) ;

Just to add some balance - remind us, how much are they are down from the top ... and to add measure, just let us know what your statement proves anyway?

[Baa_Baa]

Jeez ... did I disturb the nice and fluffy group think? So much owners bias - but fair enough, we all have been there at one stage or another :) ;

Just to add some balance - remind us, how much are they are down from the top ... and to add measure, just let us know what your statement proves anyway?

Well, as a non-holder and recidivist ATM basher, your input is tiresome and not helpful to anyone. Your abusive tone towards anyone who is pro-ATM is tedious and unnecessary.

What does my statement prove? You want proof? You have no idea when I bought back in to ATM so I have no interest in the SP fall, I'm only interested in how much it's up, 51% so far. I'm happy with the turnaround and a share of those gains.

Standing on the sidelines bashing the company achieves nothing useful, even misses an opportunity as being blinded by negative bias.

[carrom74]

I like DB”s conservative and a measured approach. As a holder and someone who is still under water, I am certain he will bring this company back to its glory. The conference call provided more information on its buyback,possible M&A”s and the executive of the English label (Yohan) knows a lot on how the market has evolved on these two years.I personally love the O2O concept.

Happy times seems to come back but still a wee while to go…

[Gerald]

Anyone have a link to the call?

[Baa_Baa]

Anyone have a link to the call?

Here you go. https://assets-au-01.kc-usercontent.com/bca3e5d5-83bd-02bf-1c27-acb036630e5b/c82e62a8-6fe0-4023-9666-974ad3583486/a2M_FYR_290822.mp3

[BlackPeter]

Well, as a non-holder and recidivist ATM basher, your input is tiresome and not helpful to anyone. Your abusive tone towards anyone who is pro-ATM is tedious and unnecessary.

What does my statement prove? You want proof? You have no idea when I bought back in to ATM so I have no interest in the SP fall, I'm only interested in how much it's up, 51% so far. I'm happy with the turnaround and a share of those gains.

Standing on the sidelines bashing the company achieves nothing useful, even misses an opportunity as being blinded by negative bias.

Pretty disgusting personal attack. Tells us a lot about you.

Is this really your last resort?

This forum lives from a discussion about risks and opportunities for any company. People like you clearly try to suppress a discussion of the risks. How can this be useful for any investor?

[Baa_Baa]

Morningstar's Analyst Update 30 August 2022 (https://www.morningstar.com/stocks/xasx/a2m/quote) - "A2 Milk's Strong Brand in China Drives Infant Formula Market Share Growth"

[JohnnyTheHorse]

Watching for an hourly higher low to form today. Having an aggressive stab around this AU$5.45 support to see if I can catch it.

[Sideshow Bob]

a2 milk sees strong growth in China's mother-and-baby stores, domestic e-commerce (nutraingredients-asia.com) (https://www.nutraingredients-asia.com/Article/2022/08/31/a2-milk-sees-strong-growth-in-china-s-mother-and-baby-stores-domestic-e-commerce?utm_source=newsletter_daily&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=01-Sep-2022&cid=DM1023230&bid=2024330007)

[sb9]

Watching for an hourly higher low to form today. Having an aggressive stab around this AU$5.45 support to see if I can catch it.

Guessing you probably didn't have much luck today. Defying general market sentiment and moving ahead...

[JohnnyTheHorse]

Guessing you probably didn't have much luck today. Defying general market sentiment and moving ahead...

It was a long position. We saw hourly consolidation from yesterdays high, so I was looking for the hourly higher low to be set today to lead to continuation of the move. Entry criteria was 38% fib (bull flag), 5 & 15min RSI oversold and AU$5.45 support, knowing that an hourly higher low was very likely to form today. Nailed the short yesterday with the EQ that formed, but covered a bit early in the high AU$4.50's.

Currently up ~5% in 5 hours :t_up:

[sb9]

It was a long position. We saw hourly consolidation from yesterdays high, so I was looking for the hourly higher low to be set today to lead to continuation of the move. Entry criteria was 38% fib (bull flag), 5 & 15min RSI oversold and AU$5.45 support, knowing that an hourly higher low was very likely to form today. Nailed the short yesterday with the EQ that formed, but covered a bit early in the high AU$4.50's.

Currently up ~5% in 5 hours :t_up:

Well played, another higher high close on ASX at 5.83. Seems like it starts lower on NZX and closes higher on ASX these days, used to be other way pre covid. Should get to 6 soon there and 7 here.

[bull....]

looks like results bounce all over as china locking heaps cities down now

[sb9]

looks like results bounce all over as china locking heaps cities down now

Been there, done that and came out unscathed. They've much better handle on supply chain now post covid...

[Baa_Baa]

Quote from the KFL Monthly Update:

a2 Milk (+25%) reported a strong result, with infant formulasales and group earnings well ahead of expectations in thesix months to June. The company has managed well duringanother challenging period, including managing a changein major distributor and shifting volumes towards onlineplatforms. It also out-executed rivals in getting product tomarket during the Shanghai lockdowns. a2's marketingis proving effective, with an uplift in share of voice and"top of mind" and "spontaneous" awareness metrics liftingstrongly, consistent with their growth in market share acrosskey channels. Management has done a good job of fixingproblems in the business and building more robust capabilityand processes to deliver on its growth strategy.

[Baa_Baa]

SAMR Registration extended: https://www.nzx.com/announcements/398607

As noted in the Company’s FY22 results announcement on 29 August 2022, a2MC’s current China label IMF product registration was due to expire in late September 2022. As anticipated, Synlait has received notification from SAMR that the current registration has been renewed. In effect, this will allow Synlait to manufacture a2MC’s current registered China label product until 21 February 2023 when transition to the new GB standard is required. Product manufactured up until this date is allowed to be sold in market after that date.

[see weed]

I got a email from Slater & Gordon yesterday about signing a document. But to read the email/document, I have to tick a box to agree to use electronic records & signatures. Has anyone else on here had the same email. The document expires on 13/10/22. I think it has something to do with fees if making a claim against a2m company.:confused:

[winner69]

ATM share price up 50% last few months ... from its recent low

That's pretty good

Probably be 100% up after Christmas

[Sideshow Bob]

https://www.nutraingredients-asia.com/Article/2022/09/14/gross-margins-for-major-chinese-infant-formula-players-drop-in-h1-2022?utm_source=newsletter_daily&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=15-Sep-2022&cid=DM1026865&bid=2035914909

Key players in China’s infant formula industry have reported a drop in their gross profit margins in the first six months of this year, including the biggest local player Feihe, as well as Health and Happiness Group (H&H Group), and Ausnutria.

[BlackPeter]

https://www.nutraingredients-asia.com/Article/2022/09/14/gross-margins-for-major-chinese-infant-formula-players-drop-in-h1-2022?utm_source=newsletter_daily&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=15-Sep-2022&cid=DM1026865&bid=2035914909

Key players in China’s infant formula industry have reported a drop in their gross profit margins in the first six months of this year, including the biggest local player Feihe, as well as Health and Happiness Group (H&H Group), and Ausnutria.

Apparently its not just the margins, but as well the volume.

Wondering what this means for ATM? I recon the believers will say that's great - more business for ATM.
Others might say - just an indication that the Chinese infant formula market is in decline.

I am sure we will find out at some stage ...

[Sideshow Bob]

https://i.stuff.co.nz/business/129904936/new-products-and-expansion-for-mataura-valley-milk?utm_source=ST&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=ShareTrader+AM+Update+for+Saturday+17 +September+2022

MVM increasing production

[BlackPeter]

https://i.stuff.co.nz/business/129904936/new-products-and-expansion-for-mataura-valley-milk?utm_source=ST&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=ShareTrader+AM+Update+for+Saturday+17 +September+2022

MVM increasing production

Quite tough though to move back to by the punters perceived exponential growth by expanding the production of a boring milk factory. Scalability issues spring to mind. ATM clearly lost its mojo.

[see weed]

I got a email from Slater & Gordon yesterday about signing a document. But to read the email/document, I have to tick a box to agree to use electronic records & signatures. Has anyone else on here had the same email. The document expires on 13/10/22. I think it has something to do with fees if making a claim against a2m company.:confused:
I posted this one week ago. So I must be the only person on ST forum who received this email from Slater & Gordon.

[silverblizzard888]

I posted this one week ago. So I must be the only person on ST forum who received this email from Slater & Gordon.

It seems so, but Ive definitely seen ads while browsing the net that ask ATM shareholders affected to contact another law firm, their name escapes me at the moment.

[Baa_Baa]

I posted this one week ago. So I must be the only person on ST forum who received this email from Slater & Gordon.

However, we can confirm that you will not be exposed to any out of pocket costs as a result of your participation or registration in the claim.

https://www.slatergordon.com.au/class-actions/current-class-actions/a2-milk-shareholder-class-action-investigation

[Baa_Baa]

Buyback to commence 5th October. 1Q23 EBITDA expected to be inline with plan.
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/399700

[Baa_Baa]

3/10/2022, 8:30am MKTUPDTE
The a2 Milk Company (a2MC, the Company) is pleased to advise (https://www.nzx.com/announcements/399817) that it has renewed its exclusive import and distribution arrangements with China State Farm Agribusiness Holding Shanghai Co., Ltd (CSFA) for a term of five years from 1 October 2022.

[BlackPeter]

3/10/2022, 8:30am MKTUPDTE
The a2 Milk Company (a2MC, the Company) is pleased to advise (https://www.nzx.com/announcements/399817) that it has renewed its exclusive import and distribution arrangements with China State Farm Agribusiness Holding Shanghai Co., Ltd (CSFA) for a term of five years from 1 October 2022.

I guess this is about as unexpected as day following night or the outcome of any AGM vote about management paying the auditors ...

It is basically saying that Shanghai City Holding will continue to buy the products from Shanghai City Holding. Don't forget - they minority own and majority control Synlait and they have as well an interest in Mataura Valley Milk.

What a surprise they continue to buy their own products! Well down ATM, I recon they had to negotiate really hard.

More interesting will be how they plan to circumvent the export ban after Xi's war in Taiwan has started ...

[Lease]

More interesting will be how they plan to circumvent the export ban after Xi's war in Taiwan has started ...

Do you really think Xi will attack Taiwan, after he's viewed what has happened in Ukraine?

[BlackPeter]

Do you really think Xi will attack Taiwan, after he's viewed what has happened in Ukraine?

Hard to say - I guess sure, it would not be clever.

But lets face it - leaders like Putin and Xi are not in their respective positions for their brains. I even would say that intelligence is counterproductive to run a populist agenda. What they need is all the traits of a bully, particular brutality and the ability to identify weak opponents who they can kill before the opponents kill them.

So, who knows, but I certainly would not exclude it.

Xi said he will unite Taiwan with the mainland and he said that if necessary he will use force. I don't see for him any other option to complete this landgrab, same as for Putin. Do you?

[Baa_Baa]

Buyback to commence 5th October. 1Q23 EBITDA expected to be inline with plan.
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/399700

Will be interesting to see whether ATM buy-back shows up in the bid queue today.

[winner69]

What's this Care A2 Plus that's looking at an IPO in OZ - all the rage on Hot Copper which I can't see because banned for life over there

NBR had a story about. Tim Hunter made this comment -

On current form, NZX-listed A2 Milk will not be quaking in its boots about Care A2 Plus specifically, but the wider problem is whether its arrival signals the ultimate commoditisation of A2 products, eroding the aura of exclusivity and margins along with it.


That is a bit of a worry

[silverblizzard888]

What's this Care A2 Plus that's looking at an IPO in OZ - all the rage on Hot Copper which I can't see because banned for life over there

NBR had a story about. Tim Hunter made this comment -

On current form, NZX-listed A2 Milk will not be quaking in its boots about Care A2 Plus specifically, but the wider problem is whether its arrival signals the ultimate commoditisation of A2 products, eroding the aura of exclusivity and margins along with it.


That is a bit of a worry

That was always going to be the worry for them especially with other companies copying their A2 strategy. Thats where their branding should hopefully have been cemented in the minds of consumers. They had a head start and now they have to make sure they keep their advantage.

Very similar to the early days of Trilogy and their rosehip oil product. They had an advantage of being one of the first to really push the product to market and then if you look now theres tons of rosehip oil products on the market. Trilogy has done one thing thats stood out for them, they cemented their brand as a premium brand and I see that A2 has done the same, so any copy cats come off as cheaper knock-offs and they should still have the hearts and minds of the consumer wanting the best A2 product on the market.

[mike2020]

Au contraire, it is milk. What brand is in your fridge? Anchor? I have to think new mother's equals new customer's who will make their own judgement. I know this from watching my daughter and her friends make these decisions recently.

[Baa_Baa]

What's this Care A2 Plus that's looking at an IPO in OZ - all the rage on Hot Copper which I can't see because banned for life over there

The news of Care A2 Plus IPO garnered all of three posts on the HC A2M thread ... this is what they thought of it:

"It's been around in Aus a few years, has very low sales and market penetration here. The main point of differentiation is they add lactoferrin to their A2 formula (similar to A2 China label product).

It is owned and (until now) funded by a large multinational mining company based in the US, and got approval to sell in the US during the FDA's temporary enforcement freeze.

I say 'until now' because after they go public, it will be shareholders funding what looks like a very low margin / high cost business."
--------------
"Recent article about the competition ' Care A2+.' WHat a joke of a company.

"Care has a factory in Victoria and secured distribution through Chemist Warehouse, Woolworths and Terry White Chemists, among others, the prospectus said. Care A2 had only $365,918 revenue in the year to June 30, the prospectus said, and reported a $5.3 million loss in the financial year."

For every $1 of product the sold, they lost more than $10. Terrible business company compared to a2, and aiming for a market cap of 400 million"
----------
"Yeah this is what I was getting at in my response to the other poster earlier. I guess private equity has had enough of bleeding cash and they are trying to use the temporary FDA approval to rope shareholders into what is clearly an atrociously performing business. FYI the article says they are aiming at a $520M - $544M (AUD) market cap - what a joke!"

[Baa_Baa]

The AFR article on the Care A2+ IPO https://www.afr.com/street-talk/care-a2-infant-formula-owner-maps-out-500m-plus-float-20221018-p5bqtu

Key take outs:
Care Corporation, set up to acquire infant formula group Care A2 Plus Pty Ltd, is asking listed equities investors to value its equity at as much as $544.4 million for its proposed debut on the ASX-boards.

Care Corp has lodged a prospectus for a $24.75 million to $49.5 million initial public offering via Morgans which, if successful, would see it have shares on issue worth $520 million to $544.4 million.

Care A2 had only $365,918 revenue in the year to June 30, the prospectus said, and reported a $5.3 million loss in the financial year.

New shareholders would own up to only 10 per cent of the group. The offer was at 75¢ a share.

[Baa_Baa]

A2 Milk published their presentation (http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/ATM/401275/382054.pdf) to the SELECT EQUITIES 6TH ANNUAL CHINA CONFERENCE. 27 October 2022.

FY22 result delivered double-digit growth in revenue and earnings in a challenging market
• Group results in line with the Company’s expectations
− Group revenue growth of 19.8% to $1,446.2 million (growth of 11.2% ex-MVM) with 2H22 up 18.9% on 1H22 (15.7% ex-MVM)
− EBITDA1 up 59.0% to $196.2 million, EBITDA margin 13.6% in FY22 (16.1% ex-MVM)
− NPAT, including non-controlling interest, up 42.3% to $114.7 million with $122.6 million attributable to owners of the Company2
− Closing net cash of $816.5 million with operational cash conversion of 114%4

On track to achieve ambition to grow sales to $2 billion and improve EBITDA margins over time
- $2 billion revenue goal implies a 4-year CAGR of 8.5% from FY22 if achieved by FY26
- Outlook for FY23 is for high single digit revenue growth broadly consistent with achieving medium term ambition over time

[winner69]

Good stuff baabaa

Good ambition - On track to achieve ambition to grow sales to $2 billion by FY26

Doesn't really seem that long ago they were 1 reporting period away from achieving $2 billion

That's the past - been reset and a new game now eh

Gave many an opportunity to have another ride on the A2 merry go round eh

[Baa_Baa]

Good stuff baabaa

Good ambition - On track to achieve ambition to grow sales to $2 billion by FY26

Doesn't really seem that long ago they were 1 reporting period away from achieving $2 billion

That's the past - been reset and a new game now eh

Gave many an opportunity to have another ride on the A2 merry go round eh

Yeah maybe, I see you're still dissing it at another place, paying the piper?

"My bad basil ...their ambition is revenue 8.5% pa and to improve margins.

So profit growth could be 10% pa

So maybe PE of 18 should be in your calcs ....share price $3.78

That's better eh

Talk of share buy back ..that should help as well"

Probably haven't noticed it's already up 40% from $4.20 since May this year, higher highs and higher lows, and all that. Easier to run with the crowd than have an opinion for yourself.

[nztx]

Still some distant glimmer of hope for a peg or two north of $15 then ? :)

[winner69]

Yeah maybe, I see you're still dissing it at another place, paying the piper?

"My bad basil ...their ambition is revenue 8.5% pa and to improve margins.

So profit growth could be 10% pa

So maybe PE of 18 should be in your calcs ....share price $3.78

That's better eh

Talk of share buy back ..that should help as well"

Probably haven't noticed it's already up 40% from $4.20 since May this year, higher highs and higher lows, and all that. Easier to run with the crowd than have an opinion for yourself.

Wasn't 'dissing' it at another place but thanks for posting here anyway

I had noticed the 40% rise over last 6 months ..... another 40% with higher highs and higher lows and we'll see and we'll se a share price over 8 bucks middle of next year

I better hang in there eh .... even though it doesn't seem 'cheap' but what the heck fundamentals don't matter - its all about sentiment these days

[bull....]

interesting comments in bubs update yesterday

CHINA: Strategic focus on Manufacturer-To-Consumer (M2C) omnichannel modelAcross the infant formula category, a significant number of brands have oversupplied the market, includinglocal Chinese brands. This has created a significant decline in margin across all distribution partners.

http://research.iress.com.au/IDS/old/20221031/02590874.pdf?uid=0EF490E2A00AF9062C144A2D7A48E7BE9 3430000222222E26CE8E540093D250091850000&ppv=

[sb9]

Finally got the FDA approval that's been waiting in the wings for a long time..

https://www.fda.gov/food/infant-formula-guidance-documents-regulatory-information/enforcement-discretion-manufacturers-increase-infant-formula-supplies

[carrom74]

Finally got the FDA approval that's been waiting in the wings for a long time..

https://www.fda.gov/food/infant-formula-guidance-documents-regulatory-information/enforcement-discretion-manufacturers-increase-infant-formula-supplies

Great news! Why don’t they release this news to the stock exchanges?

[winner69]

Great news! Why don’t they release this news to the stock exchanges?

They can't type as fast as you mate

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/401681

[carrom74]

They can't type as fast as you mate

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/401681

Haha.. of late I get most of the company’s news from LinkedIn… unfortunately

[bull....]

they do say they wont make money from the us deal

In terms of FY23 earnings impact, whilst incrementally beneficial, the Company expects gross margins to be lower than average, distribution costs to be higher due to potential air freight and rework costs in the near term, and incremental marketing and trade investment to enter the category. The Company will provide an update on US IMF distribution gains and sales outlook in connection with its 1H23 interim results release or earlier as appropriate.

and it only lasts a few mths .... hardly worth it ? or are they hoping it become lasting

[Sideshow Bob]

they do say they wont make money from the us deal

In terms of FY23 earnings impact, whilst incrementally beneficial, the Company expects gross margins to be lower than average, distribution costs to be higher due to potential air freight and rework costs in the near term, and incremental marketing and trade investment to enter the category. The Company will provide an update on US IMF distribution gains and sales outlook in connection with its 1H23 interim results release or earlier as appropriate.

and it only lasts a few mths .... hardly worth it ? or are they hoping it become lasting

"Incrementally beneficial" for FY23.

So I read it that they'll make money, just not as much on average than sales elsewhere due to costs (in the shorter term).

[sb9]

"Incrementally beneficial" for FY23.

So I read it that they'll make money, just not as much on average than sales elsewhere due to costs (in the shorter term).

Agree, its all about long term pathway into the US market and developing brand awareness.

[Sideshow Bob]

Has opened back close to $6.

[carrom74]

Since they have been selling liquid milk for quite some time, I dont see any drastic spend on sourcing new outlets to stock IF.

Does walgreens stock A2 milk? They could be a new potential customer base to enter(if not already)

[whatsup]

Will be a very interesting open in Aust today.

[see weed]

In the 3rd paragraph it says it is only approved for 9 weeks to 6/1/23, then what, will they disapprove it ?

[winner69]

Will be a very interesting open in Aust today.

+10% maybe

[winner69]

This is a long term pathway into the US

All helping on the path to $2 billion sales by 2026

You'd hope with this news they would come out soon a with a new ambition - like $2 billion sales in 2024 ....easy peasy

[dobby41]

You'd hope with this news they would come out soon a with a new ambition - like $2 billion sales in 2024 ....easy peasy

Would anyone believe it?

[Sideshow Bob]

This is a long term pathway into the US

All helping on the path to $2 billion sales by 2026

You'd hope with this news they would come out soon a with a new ambition - like $2 billion sales in 2024 ....easy peasy

$1.45b already.

Bit of FX tailwind and not out of the question.....

[whatsup]

D Ters share today ! $5-94 --- $6-28 back to $5-9? so far. ? hope they did well for a change !

[winner69]

Latest good news took share price back to 6 bucks

That's 43% up from recent low

That's pretty cool

[carrom74]

Buyback started.

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/401941

[Sideshow Bob]

https://www.nutraingredients-asia.com/Article/2022/11/08/FDA-approves-two-products-from-The-a2MC-under-enforcement-discretion?utm_source=newsletter_daily&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=09-Nov-2022&cid=DM1041374&bid=2076562000

[nizzy]

Would anyone believe it?

USA Infant formula market ain't a place you'd want to put money into. OK as a marginal volume play but not otherwise.
PS last week we came across A2 Brand fresh milk at supermarket in lovely Revelstoke, in the heart of the Canadian Rockies - must be coming in from the US? Also lots NZ fruit and wine.

[carrom74]

USA Infant formula market ain't a place you'd want to put money into. OK as a marginal volume play but not otherwise.
PS last week we came across A2 Brand fresh milk at supermarket in lovely Revelstoke, in the heart of the Canadian Rockies - must be coming in from the US? Also lots NZ fruit and wine.
They have started working on the Canadian market a while back..
https://www.a2milk.ca/

But in Canada they may be facing lot of duplicates-which would be a challenge in itself.One “sheldon creek diary” is a prime example of how difficult it would be…

https://www.sheldoncreekdairy.ca/

[sb9]

Chart showing good momentum on back of buy back, singles day sales (11/11) and ASM next week. Could well see sp with 7 handle soon, stars seem to be aligning in right direction.

[JohnnyTheHorse]

Going to be short carnage if that AU$6 breaks I suspect. Inverse H&S.

[FTG]

Just a matter of when, rather than if, $6 is cracked?

IMO, Mid to high $7's would then be the next major train station to visit.

[Lease]

ATM is nearly 52 weeks high. How many shares are reaching 52 weeks high in this year's market?

[sb9]

Could well be close to 7 bucks with some decent news/update (mostly around 11/11 sales) this Fri at the ASM.

[BlackPeter]

Well, I guess ATM is always good for an interesting case study.

Company with a pathetic earnings history (backward PE in the fourties), very limited earnings CAGR (forward CAGR 6.2), demonstrated management incompetence (putting all their eggs into one basket without even understanding the spec for that basket) and no moat worthwhile talking about (everybody is now selling A2 milk and rightly can do so) ... and punters still push the share price again into the stratosphere.

I guess this is at best a cyclical agricultural company deserving perhaps a PE of 10. Even if I allow for their meagre earnings CAGR to continue and put their average future earnings at something like 25 cents ... even then is their (forward) PE well north of 20.

2 dear for me. Just wondering - do they put anything untoward into their milk and do share holders have to drink it?

[Lease]

Well, I guess ATM is always good for an interesting case study.

Company with a pathetic earnings history (backward PE in the fourties), very limited earnings CAGR (forward CAGR 6.2), demonstrated management incompetence (putting all their eggs into one basket without even understanding the spec for that basket) and no moat worthwhile talking about (everybody is now selling A2 milk and rightly can do so) ... and punters still push the share price again into the stratosphere.

I guess this is at best a cyclical agricultural company deserving perhaps a PE of 10. Even if I allow for their meagre earnings CAGR to continue and put their average future earnings at something like 25 cents ... even then is their (forward) PE well north of 20.

2 dear for me. Just wondering - do they put anything untoward into their milk and do share holders have to drink it?

BP, just wonder where did you get that forward CAGR 6.2? My calculation is, if ATM achieved their mid-term objective of sales at $2b, EBITDA at 22.5% of sales, then earnings CAGR would be 26%. Plus they are buying back shares, to 2026 FY, EPS would be 40C. PE ratio should match the earnings growth that is 25-26. So my target SP, by 2026, is over $10.

[BlackPeter]

BP, just wonder where did you get that forward CAGR 6.2? My calculation is, if ATM achieved their mid-term objective of sales at $2b, EBITDA at 22.5% of sales, then earnings CAGR would be 26%. Plus they are buying back shares, to 2026 FY, EPS would be 40C. PE ratio should match the earnings growth that is 25-26. So my target SP, by 2026, is over $10.

3 years forward earnings based on analyst consensus plus current year's earnings.

It looks like you use revenue CAGR. I am not interested in revenue - only the stuff below the black line matters:) ;

Obviously - given that the base earning are so small, it is easy to increase the CAGR if you use a different number of years or use slightly different estimates.

But frankly - I don't see where huge growth for ATM should come from. The Chinese market is getting smaller and quite dubious anyway (high geo-political risks), the US market is still in its infant years and full of tough regulation and tough competition with a high risk that populists close this market before it really opens. European market certainly not waiting for us.

In my view the analyst estimates are too optimistic anyway - and the ATM story is over, though there might be some more hype ripples to come.

But anyway - good luck to holders.

[Lease]

3 years forward earnings based on analyst consensus plus current year's earnings.

It looks like you use revenue CAGR. I am not interested in revenue - only the stuff below the black line matters:) ;

Obviously - given that the base earning are so small, it is easy to increase the CAGR if you use a different number of years or use slightly different estimates.

But frankly - I don't see where huge growth for ATM should come from. The Chinese market is getting smaller and quite dubious anyway (high geo-political risks), the US market is still in its infant years and full of tough regulation and tough competition with a high risk that populists close this market before it really opens. European market certainly not waiting for us.

In my view the analyst estimates are too optimistic anyway - and the ATM story is over, though there might be some more hype ripples to come.

But anyway - good luck to holders.

No, I'm not using revenue CAGR. My analysis is based on ATM investor day presentation held in October last year, and its latest result.

Well, let's see. I'm confident ATM will perform.

[winner69]

BP, just wonder where did you get that forward CAGR 6.2? My calculation is, if ATM achieved their mid-term objective of sales at $2b, EBITDA at 22.5% of sales, then earnings CAGR would be 26%. Plus they are buying back shares, to 2026 FY, EPS would be 40C. PE ratio should match the earnings growth that is 25-26. So my target SP, by 2026, is over $10.

This recent preso says the ambition for EBITDA margin is a target in the 'teens' by F26.... must have adjusted down their ambitions of 22.5%

One of the 'unknowns' from my perspective is how much of a drag is MVM going to be on earnings going forward

Page 7
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/ATM/401275/382054.pdf

[Baa_Baa]

This recent preso says the ambition for EBITDA margin is a target in the 'teens' by F26.... must have adjusted down their ambitions of 22.5%

One of the 'unknowns' from my perspective is how much of a drag is MVM going to be on earnings going forward

Page 7
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/ATM/401275/382054.pdf

Some indication of the MVM drag is on the page before:

Group results inline with the Company’s expectations
− Group revenue growth of 19.8% to $1,446.2 million (growth of 11.2% ex-MVM) with 2H22 up 18.9% on 1H22 (15.7% ex-MVM)
− EBITDA1 up 59.0% to $196.2 million, EBITDA margin 13.6% in FY22 (16.1% ex-MVM)
− NPAT, including non-controlling interest, up 42.3% to $114.7 million with $122.6 million attributable to owners of the Company2 − Closing net cash3 of $816.5 million with operational cash conversion of 114%4

Haters gonna hate, already missed 58% up from the bottom.

[winner69]

Some indication of the MVM drag is on the page before:

Group results inline with the Company’s expectations
− Group revenue growth of 19.8% to $1,446.2 million (growth of 11.2% ex-MVM) with 2H22 up 18.9% on 1H22 (15.7% ex-MVM)
− EBITDA1 up 59.0% to $196.2 million, EBITDA margin 13.6% in FY22 (16.1% ex-MVM)
− NPAT, including non-controlling interest, up 42.3% to $114.7 million with $122.6 million attributable to owners of the Company2 − Closing net cash3 of $816.5 million with operational cash conversion of 114%4

Haters gonna hate, already missed 58% up from the bottom.

And a 52 week high ....that's very good too

[Sideshow Bob]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/402600

The a2 Milk Company (“a2MC” or the “Company”) is today hosting its Annual Meeting in Auckland, New Zealand. During his address to shareholders, David Hearn, Chair of the Board, will announce that he intends to stand down as a Board member and Chair at the next Annual Meeting in November 2023, as he comes to the natural end of his term as a Director after nine years on the Board.

As a result, and in order to ensure a smooth transition, the Board has spent significant time recently considering the best replacement for the Chair. After that due consideration the Board has come to the unanimous conclusion that Pip Greenwood, who has been on the Board for over three years, has both the skills and importantly the experience to take over from David Hearn at that time.

Mr Hearn said: “Whilst I recognise that we have had some turbulent times recently, it is an extraordinary experience to play a part in the development of this amazing business. I consider it a personal privilege to serve as your Chair and I want to take this opportunity to thank you for your support both for the Company and me personally.”

“Not only will Pip bring her excellent skills to the role, but importantly this plan also represents a balanced blend of Board refreshment together with continuity, which we believe is absolutely appropriate after a period of significant change at both Board and Executive Leadership Team levels within the business,” said Mr Hearn.
By order of the Board of Directors

[sb9]

$7 here we come...

- Having regard to year-to-date currency movements and should currency remain at prevailinglevels, full year reported revenue is likely to increase to low double-digit growth compared toprevious guidance of high single-digit growth. The Company also reiterates its guidance that1H23 growth (on 1H22) is expected to be significantly higher than 2H23 growth (on 2H22)

[sb9]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/402600

The a2 Milk Company (“a2MC” or the “Company”) is today hosting its Annual Meeting in Auckland, New Zealand. During his address to shareholders, David Hearn, Chair of the Board, will announce that he intends to stand down as a Board member and Chair at the next Annual Meeting in November 2023, as he comes to the natural end of his term as a Director after nine years on the Board.

As a result, and in order to ensure a smooth transition, the Board has spent significant time recently considering the best replacement for the Chair. After that due consideration the Board has come to the unanimous conclusion that Pip Greenwood, who has been on the Board for over three years, has both the skills and importantly the experience to take over from David Hearn at that time.

Mr Hearn said: “Whilst I recognise that we have had some turbulent times recently, it is an extraordinary experience to play a part in the development of this amazing business. I consider it a personal privilege to serve as your Chair and I want to take this opportunity to thank you for your support both for the Company and me personally.”

“Not only will Pip bring her excellent skills to the role, but importantly this plan also represents a balanced blend of Board refreshment together with continuity, which we believe is absolutely appropriate after a period of significant change at both Board and Executive Leadership Team levels within the business,” said Mr Hearn.
By order of the Board of Directors

Should've gone long time back, big liability for the company, doubt if he adds any value...

[whatsup]

Should've gone long time back, big liability for the company, doubt if he adds any value...

WHAAAAAT !! David Hearn, steered ATM through its most turbulant times in its history, has a bank of the most detailed knowledge regarding this company also especially the resignation of the previous chair.

[winner69]

$7 here we come...

- Having regard to year-to-date currency movements and should currency remain at prevailinglevels, full year reported revenue is likely to increase to low double-digit growth compared toprevious guidance of high single-digit growth. The Company also reiterates its guidance that1H23 growth (on 1H22) is expected to be significantly higher than 2H23 growth (on 2H22)




Isn't that a downgrade of sorts

Sales growth only 12%/12% instead of 17%/18% .... quite a difference v expectations

In addition they said '..EBITDA margin (% of sales) is expected to be similar to prior year
compared to previous guidance of a modest improvement' - so no margin improvement

That's about $20m ebitda less than expected

Seems market seen it this way as well today

[sb9]

Isn't that a downgrade of sorts

Sales growth only 12%/12% instead of 17%/18% .... quite a difference v expectations

In addition they said '..EBITDA margin (% of sales) is expected to be similar to prior year
compared to previous guidance of a modest improvement' - so no margin improvement

That's about $20m ebitda less than expected

Seems market seen it this way as well today

I read low double digit growth to be like 12-13% compared to high single digit growth which is 8-9%. I leave you to figure out which one is bigger growth number. While EBITDA margin remain to be same, higher revenue will result in higher EBITDA $, higher NPAT $ and therefore higher EPS and even higher EPS with less outstanding shares (due to buy back).

I take it as positive, today's price movement is probably due to profit taking / friday trading and general market sentiment.

[sb9]

WHAAAAAT !! David Hearn, steered ATM through its most turbulant times in its history, has a bank of the most detailed knowledge regarding this company also especially the resignation of the previous chair.

Yeah he was good when GB was around, but lost the plot over past few years. He doesn't rate well in my books.

[winner69]

I read low double digit growth to be like 12-13% compared to high single digit growth which is 8-9%. I leave you to figure out which one is bigger growth number. While EBITDA margin remain to be same, higher revenue will result in higher EBITDA $, higher NPAT $ and therefore higher EPS and even higher EPS with less outstanding shares (due to buy back).

I take it as positive, today's price movement is probably due to profit taking / friday trading and general market sentiment.

You are right sb9.... more profit than last year but less than what punters were expecting (based on previous guidance)

[sb9]

You are right sb9.... more profit than last year but less than what punters were expecting (based on previous guidance)

Fair enough. I’m sure they’re being conservative based on current macro economic environment.

[Baa_Baa]

A2 Milk needs its own dairy factories, Heard says
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/farming/agribusiness/130486306/a2-milk-needs-its-own-dairy-factories-heard-says

[winner69]

A2 Milk needs its own dairy factories, Heard says
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/farming/agribusiness/130486306/a2-milk-needs-its-own-dairy-factories-heard-says

Nice article - pity headline didn't get Hearn's name right

All that shiny stainless steel costing hundreds of millions ..... do they have ambitions to be another Fonterra?

[winner69]

No doubt A2 spending $288m on their Synlait stake makes good 'strategic sense'

But that $289m is only worth $127m now - under water by $162m (down 56%) ..... but no worries its only money.

Better returns on their investments in the future I hope

[Mr Slothbear]

No doubt A2 spending $288m on their Synlait stake makes good 'strategic sense'

But that $289m is only worth $127m now - under water by $162m (down 56%) ..... but no worries its only money.

Better returns on their investments in the future I hope


okay winner but what if, in an alternate realty A2 did not buy that stake and it was instead purchased by Feihi or danone? And they used that stake to make moves against A2 or A2 lost access to that processing capacity?

[Baa_Baa]

okay winner but what if, in an alternate realty A2 did not buy that stake and it was instead purchased by Feihi or danone? And they used that stake to make moves against A2 or A2 lost access to that processing capacity?

The Chair made it very clear, repeatedly, that the Synlait and MVM acquisitions were 'strategic', cosying up to the China players, and repeated a number of times how important those relationships are to A2.

I doubt whether A2 give much thought to what the market thinks about Synlait capital value, unless it provides an opportunity to increase the % ownership share alongside Bright Dairy.

The emphasis on the new Director over improving and building supply chains, manufacturing and distribution was referred to as well, a number of times.

Retaining about $660m cash, after the buyback, "for strategic investment", suggests they already have an eye to where the next manufacturing expansion might be.

I'd guess we'll see at least one manufacturing play in China before too long. I doubt whether any A2 ownership in any manufacturing facility will be outright owned where partnership synergies provide strategic advantages.

[Baa_Baa]

https://youtu.be/2nOGSDlu6f8


https://youtu.be/2nOGSDlu6f8

[winner69]

https://youtu.be/2nOGSDlu6f8


https://youtu.be/2nOGSDlu6f8

...............deleted ...............

Naughty of me to bring politics on to the A2 thread ... there's other places for that

[aperitif]

1432714328

Upgrade to “Smart Nutriton” and a protein formulation coming soon.

[sb9]

Forming nice long term bullish trend here, next stop $7...

[sb9]

Inching close to $7 mark...

[sb9]

Inching close to $7 mark...

Are we there yet...

[Mel]

Are we there yet...
$7 hit :). Good to see one of my shares appreciating in value!!

[carrom74]

I am not certainly sure that the current uptrend is solely related to the buyback...

1.The buyback is just about 37M shares(which can go down if the buying price goes up)-thats about 4-5% of the equity
2.China lockdown should be history soon which inturn can be a double edged sword for the population.The easing would increase COVID cases and decrease local IF production(fear of going out) and also with such low immunity things can turn into custard quite quickly.
3.This may eventuate pantry stocking(just how it happened in 2020)
4.Question is...Can SML manage the spurt in demand of English Label and reignite Daigou...
5.FDA approval is uncharted territory(hit or miss-no one really knows)

Thoughts??

[sb9]

I am not certainly sure that the current uptrend is solely related to the buyback...

1.The buyback is just about 37M shares(which can go down if the buying price goes up)-thats about 4-5% of the equity
2.China lockdown should be history soon which inturn can be a double edged sword for the population.The easing would increase COVID cases and decrease local IF production(fear of going out) and also with such low immunity things can turn into custard quite quickly.
3.This may eventuate pantry stocking(just how it happened in 2020)
4.Question is...Can SML manage the spurt in demand of English Label and reignite Daigou...
5.FDA approval is uncharted territory(hit or miss-no one really knows)

Thoughts??

Well said, my thoughts too the current uptrend can't all be due to buy back. Stock is being rerated and helped recently by commentary from SML. Next stop A$ 7...

[whatsup]

12 months high atm @ $7.60 onward and upward .

[winner69]

12 months high atm @ $7.60 onward and upward .

Sounds better if you say 80% up from recent low

One of the stars of 2022

Cool eh

And of course …onwards and upward ,,,,to one day a new all time high

[Paint it Black]

The diagou 'exporting' has obviously been assisting the SP today with the government announcement. Time will tell whether or not a good decision.

[Baa_Baa]

One of the stars of 2022

Cool eh

Oh yes, very cool. This was so maligned as it fell from ridiculous highs, to finally settle and rebound. The naysayers have less to say nowadays, while the observant and nimble are well on the way.

[Lease]

Next PT will be $8, after they report half year result at the end of next month.

[carrom74]

I am not certainly sure that the current uptrend is solely related to the buyback...

1.The buyback is just about 37M shares(which can go down if the buying price goes up)-thats about 4-5% of the equity
2.China lockdown should be history soon which inturn can be a double edged sword for the population.The easing would increase COVID cases and decrease local IF production(fear of going out) and also with such low immunity things can turn into custard quite quickly.
3.This may eventuate pantry stocking(just how it happened in 2020)
4.Question is...Can SML manage the spurt in demand of English Label and reignite Daigou...
5.FDA approval is uncharted territory(hit or miss-no one really knows)
?

I posted the above last month... Guess Point 2 and 3 is already happening.Next month update would be interesting for long term holders...
Thoughts?

[Baa_Baa]

Baba was too coward to just respond to my post, so he responded with a reputation comment instead:
14404


Hypocrite. Your last comment, from the king of giving 'bad reputation'.

14405

[BlackPeter]

Hypocrite. Your last comment, from the king of giving 'bad reputation'.

14405

I mentioned that it would be unpolite not to reciprocate, didn't I? Action - reaction - this is simple physics.

But just because you seem to be less reluctant to use name calling, does not mean you are right, doesn't it?

[nztx]

16 bucks by Xmas 2023 ? ;)

Yeah / Nah or maybe ? ;)

must still be some love left for the battered A2M out there and distant memories of former glory

probably a few jumping on their bikes to recover past large losses too :)

[winner69]

I posted the above last month... Guess Point 2 and 3 is already happening.Next month update would be interesting for long term holders...
Thoughts?


…and interesting for other than long term holders too

[alokdhir]

ATM thread brought the first scrap of the new year too ...seems interest coming back with W69 also present ...:p

[winner69]

Kingfish have remained positive on A2 through all the ups and downs - obviously a high conviction stock for them

In June 2020 they had $60m 'invested' in A2

Never really sold any shares and since then have increased number of shares from about 3.0 million to 4.5 million in September 2022

Those 4.5 million shares in September worth about $28m - so keeping the faith has been costly

But no doubt still 'adding' to their position so returns from here should be pretty good

As the guys at Kingfish keep on saying 'good times always come after bad times' so no worries

[winner69]

Looks like another UP day today for ATM

If anybody still a naysayer you better get on board quick

Over 8 bucks next week and an announcement coming up next month to boost the price even more

[alokdhir]

Kingfish have remained positive on A2 through all the ups and downs - obviously a high conviction stock for them

In June 2020 they had $60m 'invested' in A2

Never really sold any shares and since then have increased number of shares from about 3.0 million to 4.5 million in September 2022

Those 4.5 million shares in September worth about $28m - so keeping the faith has been costly

But no doubt still 'adding' to their position so returns from here should be pretty good

As the guys at Kingfish keep on saying 'good times always come after bad times' so no worries

They did reduce at least thats what they said in newsletter in Dec 2020 before downgrade and then some more in March qtr 2021 ...latter added some more while in low $ 5s ...so did some trading ...Yes did never really fully exited the position ...now it's about 6% of portfolio .
Its helping them underpin NAV while MFT and SUM is bottoming out while FPH has reversed with IFT evergreen ...your EBO is at 2.5% in the green for them

Seems like a happy mix to me ...soon when more stocks start firing then NAV shud leap ...its doing steady at the mo

[BlackPeter]

Just to add a bit more data to the discussion (all $ are Australian - i.e. multiply with whatever if you prefer NZD):

The 11 analysts as published by yahoo or market screener predict for the coming three years (actually the third year is only published in market screener) an average earnings of 22 cents per share (consensus).

This would be (at todays price) a forward PE of 32.

Forward earnings CAGR is not really flash either: 5.7 - Hmm.

Share clarity offers a DCF value per share of $7.17 ... and analyst consensus (of above 11 analysts) is only $6.17 per share;


Now - I know that analyst forecasts ar rarely worth the paper they are printed on (remember - NOBODY can predict the future), however - they are in average not worse than anybody else's forecasts either ... and normally analysts are optimistic. Plain Darwinism - optimism pays if you work for a broker.

So, sorry - I can't find a reason to buy this share based on fundamentals ... but don't take my word for it ... hype can create miraculous ups and downs. Just take care - its a dangerous world out there.

[winner69]

Hey BP - youknow by now that broker analysts targets follow the share price when share price is going up - and vice versa when going down .... just give them a bit of time to catch up

What' sSimply Wall St - usually pretty good guess

[Habits]

....unpolite...But just because you seem to be less reluctant to use name calling...

"unpolite"? "Does not mean you are right, doesn't it" is a good example of poor English. Oh yeah we have to excuse you for being a rude foreigner. What kind of so called intellectual challenges someone to name calling. Thats very weird BP

[winner69]

I see Simply Wall St says this

REWARDS
Trading at 17.8% below our estimate of its fair value (so Target must be about $9)
Earnings are forecast to grow 17.97% per year / Earnings grew by 52% over the past year

RISK ANALYSIS
A2M passed our risk checks.

So lots of topside and low risk and love that 18% growth

[winner69]

Share price up more than 1% so far today

On a roll to 8 bucks plus

At 8.40 it will be up 100% from recent low….and that only about 9 months ago

Can’t do much better than that

[winner69]

Well said, my thoughts too the current uptrend can't all be due to buy back. Stock is being rerated and helped recently by commentary from SML. Next stop A$ 7...

Wish you hadn’t mentioned the buyback sb9

Had a dream it ended up like the FBU buyback ….. FBU bought $273m of shares and paid an average of $6.63 ….share price now $4.77

Seems a common occurrence companies paying over the odds for their own shares …hope A2 an exception

Anybody know what the average A2 has paid so far

[winner69]

Average buy price in buy back seems to be about A$5.45

That’s good buying

[BlackPeter]

Hey BP - youknow by now that broker analysts targets follow the share price when share price is going up - and vice versa when going down .... just give them a bit of time to catch up

What' sSimply Wall St - usually pretty good guess

Lets not talk about Simply Wall Street, please.

Otherwise - sure, analysts typically use some of the well known formulas like Grahams formula, Earnings times something (often 10 or 12.5), or they do a DCF with input which is anybody's best guess (sometimes they reveal that as well) and if the outcome is too outrageous they moderate their raw forecast with some fudge factor to bring it closer to the SP of the day ... as any reasonable analyst would do. This creates obviously the illusion that estimates are following SP (which by the way they do ...).

Anyway - we both agree that analyst consensus doesn't correlate with the future share price, but I still think they can add value. They give you exactly what any other good analyst can provide ... some analysis of the past and some random guesses of the future. However - they show you at least what the market (who has no clue as well what will happen in the future) is thinking. This is useful information.

[winner69]

Agree BP that analyst consensus doesn't correlate with the future share price, …

But

….we could say share price (current) correlates with future analyst consensus targets

[Bjauck]

"unpolite"? "Does not mean you are right, doesn't it" is a good example of poor English. Oh yeah we have to excuse you for being a rude foreigner. What kind of so called intellectual challenges someone to name calling. Thats very weird BP I don't really have anything to add to a discussion on ATM as I have found that trying to forecast its performance has been like throwing a dart from behind the oche whilst blindfolded.

Foreigner or not, there is nothing wrong with "unpolite." However I am but another foreigner too, as I am entitled to two other nationalities, by descent. "Unpolite" is more of a British usage. So foreign as well I guess? However I also think "unpolite" is more appropriate (more emphatic?) in different contexts compared with "impolite." However I had foreign influences in my upbringing.

Disc: ATM shareholder.

[swissboy]

Now 3 weeks since any buyback and price still going up

[winner69]

Now 3 weeks since any buyback and price still going up

Just shows you that share buy backs don’t really influence price?