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roaddog
25-05-2005, 02:53 PM
Whats happening with this company Dudes [?]any of you dudes got any views on A2 Corporation Limited [?]

Enumerate
25-05-2005, 03:36 PM
The share consolidation has been a bit of a disaster falling from $0.40 (or $0.08 per old share) to about $0.20 (or $0.04 per old share).

No news about the IdeaSphere payment of US$400,000

Classic situation - gloom and despondancy grows around the perception that a small biotech is failing to make revenue targets.

Further, Jim Guthrie has resigned at seeming short notice from the board due to ill health. It seems being an ATM Director is a very hazardous occupation.

More gloom and despondancy that maybe the firm leadership is not stable and strong.

Next opportunity for an information update is the agm on the 29th June.

Prognosis: gloomy with outbreaks of despondancy until either the new strategy seems proven or fails. The share price will either go up significantly or go down significantly - cannot see it staying where it is much longer.

whatsup
01-09-2005, 01:15 PM
@/1 renounceable issue :whats the deal & thaughts:is ATM worth it anymore?

Enumerate
01-09-2005, 01:50 PM
The following link is a good summary of the science behind A2 Corp:

http://www.lincoln.ac.nz/amac/woodford_pdf/a2milk.pdf

There is good cause to consider the A2 Corp patents may be of significant value.

However, the A2 Corp business is another question (or mystery, as the case may be). The next "strategic" plan promises a profit in three years. The price is a $5mill capital raising.

Enumerate
01-09-2005, 01:55 PM
For the life of me, I cannot understand why Fonterra are not interested in this company. There is about as much evidence that A1 milk is "bad" as there is that smoking is "bad". Imagine the global competitive advantange of selling A2 NZ Milk products with the current weight of scientific evidence behind it. Milk into asian markets is promoted as a "health food" - asian families target their young with "healthy" milk compared with traditional diets.

Why doesn't Fonterra see A2 Milk as a marketing goldmine?

whatsup
01-09-2005, 02:26 PM
Enum---, because its(A2) is some one elses business,a nd the reason ( most probably that A2 was set up in the first place ) was in the hope thar Fon---, would make a play/takeover for it which is/was what the promoters were/would be hoping for in the first place!!! Does that make sence?

Enumerate
30-01-2006, 09:05 PM
I read in the press that the health status of recent asian immigrants has deteriorated significantly upon entry and domicile in New Zealand. Since the health status of these individuals is very carefully established, this is an excellent source of information on factors which may degrade the health of populations.

One factor could be the change in diet. Specifically, non-A2 milk.

Isolating this factor is very difficult (given how non-A2 milk proteins are pervasive in our modern diet of processed foods). However, as an indicator, this study may be quite useful.

Enumerate
24-04-2007, 12:09 PM
A2 LAUNCHES MILK INTO LUCRATIVE US MARKET

Major Supermarket Chain Hy-Vee to sell a2 milk(TM) across US Mid-West.

Auckland, 24 April 2007 - A2 Corporation announced today the inaugural launch of its premium a2 milk(TM) into the US market through an exclusive deal with a leading supermarket chain.

A2 Corporation's United States subsidiary, A2 Milk Company LLC, in partnership with Original Foods Company LLC, will launch its value-added a2 milk(TM) product through the leading US supermarket chain, Hy-Vee, which has stores throughout the Mid-Western states comprising Nebraska, Iowa, Kansas, Illinois, Missouri, South Dakota, and Minnesota.

Hy-Vee has sales of more than US$4.6 billion and more than 200 retail stores across the seven Midwestern states, and ranks among the top 15 supermarket chains in the United States.

Anthony Lawler, CEO of A2 Corporation says the launch of a2 milk(TM) into the United States is a major platform for growth and follows several years of solid preparation.

"A2 Corporation is very excited to now have its milk product available in the US market which holds tremendous promise for revenue growth and for expanding our business in one of the biggest consumer and beverage markets in the world. We are also very pleased to have achieved entry into the lucrative US market according to the time frame we set last year and look forward to increasing our share of the market as US consumers develop a taste for a2 milk(TM)," says Lawler.

Tim Thietje President of The Original Foods Company says that the company is glad to be the first U.S. based company to partner with A2 to produce a2 milk(TM) for sale to American consumers.

"After two years of planning and hard work, The Original Foods Company is very excited to launch The Original Foods Company a2 milk(TM) into more than 200 Hy-Vee Food and Drug stores across the Mid-West. a2 milk(TM) delivers on our mission to sell premium quality, natural and functional foods, and our close working relationship with A2 and Hy-Vee supermarkets offers the opportunity to work with partners that share our vision," says Thietje.


Lawler also says that the launch of a2 milk(TM) into the US follows a concerted programme to develop the market which the company has been working on for some time and which it plans to extend beyond the Mid-West. Lawler would also like to thank Ideasphere Inc. (A2 Corporation's joint venture partner in USA) whose effort, support and expertise has been critical in the a2 milk (TM) launch.

Cliff Cook, A2 Corporation's Chairman stated that "the company now knows the US beverages market in detail via consumer and market studies as well as in depth discussions we've had with producers, distributors and retailers. We look forward to extending a2 milk(TM) beyond the initial select market of the Mid-West into other parts of the US which provides the best business environment in the world to grow our product."

ENDS

D_Pick
26-04-2007, 12:17 PM
Are Kiwi's big drinkers of A2 milk? I must try some if I can find it in Wgtn

It appears A2's biggest market is currently Australia although not a profitable operation historically.

From A2's last few annual reports they haven't managed to generate any significant cashflows or profits for the last six years.

Can anyone see 200 outlets in the US changing this?

What revenue size could A2 grow to in the next 5 years? $10 million sales?

I can't see any significant cashflows/profits occuring in the short term (next year or two).

As a negative overhanging the shareprice is the dilution effect of this years proposed rights issue (yet to be outlined in detail but announced in the interim report) for X amount as they need additional capital to strenghten their balance sheet and to further market their products.

Interesting product and Patents but execution into a healthy business with strong cashflows and profits has yet to occur after six years in the development phase.

Enumerate
27-04-2007, 03:48 PM
quote:[i]Originally posted by D_Pick
Are Kiwi's big drinkers of A2 milk? I must try some if I can find it in Wgtn


The sad thing is that it looks like Foodtown/Woolies have discontinued sales of A2 milk. Maybe Foodstuffs continue to stock?

The tragedy is that there is as much evidence that A1 milk damages your health, in scientific terms, as there is that smoking damages your health. (If you give credence to epidemiological studies).

Andrew Ferrier - who used to market one form of "white death" and now markets the other - take note!

D_Pick
27-04-2007, 08:00 PM
Found a two litre blue top bottle of 'New Ridge A2 - organic Un Homogenised - standard milk' for $5.95 here in Wellington, not sure if it was the organic or the A2 that supports the price ... premium. Commonsense Organics are generally premium prices for everything in store.

Must say as a virgin A2 drinker I enjoyed the taste. Does A2 taste any different to A1? I assume it doesn't so therefore it must have been the organic bit that was tasty?

Can't say it is widely available in Wellington with only about five shops selling A2. By any account that equates to low market penetration especially after six years of business.

How much money per litre is A2 Corporation receiving in licence fees I wonder from its two NZ licensees, or any of its international licensees for that matter?

Enumerate do you still drink A1 milk after all the scientific evidence?

Enumerate
28-04-2007, 08:43 PM
I have no choice - milk products are included in so many processed foods. So, I cut down on process foods; don't have milk in drinks; never drink milk or derived products; try to buy milk where the Swahili buy it ...

Was an A2 drinker when I could find it - New Ridge A2, it was.

It is most important not to give A1 milk to children. Implicated in ADHD, autism, diabetes.

If I had the beginnings of Parkinsons - I would stop drinking A1. If I had diabetes - stop drinking A1. Any disease pathogenesis that involves oxidative or nitritive damage - stop drinking A1. Psoriasis was implicated, in some states - not sure where the studies are at on this.

There is alot of information on the web. The company published a full page ad in the Herald - which I kept - on the benefits of A2.

Fonterra are hostile to the product, in the NZ market. I suppose they don't like their milk products described as "poisonous". However, you can breed for A2 and bull stud services, with the A2 gene, are on the market. Fonterra has got to be one of the stupidest organisations for not separating A2 milk.

A1 is fine where the beta caesine is processed, enzymatically, or eliminated from the product (eg cheese). It is just that in human digestion A1 generates BCM7 as a deadly byproduct.

Here is a great link on the background:

http://cmsapp1.lincoln.ac.nz/site/story_images/837_a2milkdebate_s3292.pdf

Enumerate
28-04-2007, 08:54 PM
This might explain why Australia and US are better targets for ATM:


quote:
A2 milk has been marketed in New Zealand since about March 2003 and is slowly becoming increasingly available. In Australia the uptake has been faster, largely due to considerable television exposure on current affairs programs on Channels 7 and 9 (the major commercial channels) and also the ABC (which ran a forty minute ‘Four Corners “
documentary in 2003). Currently, daily sales of A2 milk in Brisbane alone are believed to exceed total NZ weekly sales, despite the later start-up in Australia. The growth in the Australian market is currently constrained by the rate at which cows can be tested and theA2 herds set up.

Enumerate
02-05-2007, 02:24 PM
Some reasonable trades happening in ATM atm. Looks like someone wants a reasonable stake ...

D_Pick
03-05-2007, 04:36 PM
Anyone know how the Joint Venture discussions in Australia are progressing with Freedom Nutritional Products Ltd?

A good gain today +20%

D_Pick
14-05-2007, 05:43 PM
Joint venture agreed with Freedom Nutritional Products


GENERAL: ATM: JOINT VENTURE WITH FREEDOM IN AUSTRALIA AND JAPAN

https://www.directbroking.co.nz/DirectTrade/dynamic/announcement.aspx?id=1598923

corran
16-06-2007, 01:12 AM
ATM Annual Results were announced on 14/6:

http://www.nzx.com/market/market_announcements/by_company?id=149151

-------------------------------------

In Summary, revenue is up 518% to 7.6m. Loss is up 448% to 5m.

Increase in revenue is due to buying back the A2 Australian business. The announcement stated the increased loss was due to "a combination of the investment in the a2 milk(TM) launch in the US market as well as resuming control of the important Australian business operation."

As an ATM shareholder I've been happy with the company's performance this year. The goals set out were, in the main, achieved and the American launch seems to be going well.

I'm looking forward to see if ATM can build on this momentum over the 07-08 financial year.

Scuffer
20-06-2007, 12:05 PM
This mob seem to have got a lease of life lately something is pushing the sp up I used to own this stock but sold out, hindsight a wonderful thing, what did Buffet say never ever sell, well hind sight again.

Enumerate
20-06-2007, 12:33 PM
Someone wants a bit of a stake. The accumulation has been going on for a while now. I am reminded that even at the current price levels the stock is worth less than it was prior to the share consolidation. This is another example where "averaging down" pays off ...

It seems as if the Australians and the Americans "get" the idea of ATM. I am seriously surprised that Fonterra hasn't moved to make NZ herds - A2 herds.

The costs associated with the gene test are also coming down, massively. This will transfer directly to the bottom line.

D_Pick
20-06-2007, 02:56 PM
This article might have helped the shareprice as well.

A2 milk seen as key to the nation's dairy future

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/3/story.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10446483

FarmerGeorge
20-06-2007, 02:58 PM
There was a recent news article saying A2 was the only way NZ dairy could keep competitive in international market. Also they said most of NZ current dairy herd is A2 but mot of our breeding bulls are not so we seem to be drifting away from A2 production at the moment. I'm not sure of these facts but they were in a recent ODT.

D_Pick
20-06-2007, 03:05 PM
FarmerGeorge see link in my last post. Article was suggesting the opposite

Article was quoting comments from Lincoln University farm management and agribusiness professor Keith Woodford


quote:

Coincidentally, while the majority of New Zealand's cows produced A1 milk, most of the country's top bulls were genetically A2, he said.

......


He said that around 500 farmers in New Zealand were now intentionally mating their cows using A2 bulls as a "risk management strategy", and suggested Australian farmers were being left behind on the issue.

corran
20-06-2007, 05:12 PM
quote:Originally posted by Enumerate

Someone wants a bit of a stake.

Hi Enumerate - I'm interested as to why to think this. Most of the trades seem pretty small so I thought the main reason for the increased demand was quite a few small guys wanting in rather than someone accumulating a bit of a stake.

I'm wondering if ATM has got a bit ahead of itself or if there are still legs in this run yet. I'm happy to hold and wait and see for now, I put 50% of my shares up for sale at .30 a few days ago (when it was trading at around .22). 30c seemed miles away then but I'm glad now that they didn't sell :)

Enumerate
21-06-2007, 07:33 AM
quote:Originally posted by corran
Most of the trades seem pretty small so I thought the main reason for the increased demand was quite a few small guys wanting in rather than someone accumulating a bit of a stake.


Its difficult to tell the difference between small guys getting in and a single holder accumulating. None of the big guys are selling; to build a stake you need to take out quite a number of small holders.

This is "classic" biotech pattern:

- Initial holders hanging in there - price holds up;
- "Stale Bulls" - makes newer and lower lows
- Dark days - low volume, low price
- Explosion - driven by "events", price surge

Usually it is best to sell on the exuberance and buy back later. This can be usually be done a few times. However, I tend to hold the stocks I like - I am petrified of being "out" when the market discovers the value.

This stock would do much better on the ASX.

D_Pick
21-06-2007, 11:16 AM
All things Diary are good news for investors at the moment. A bit of this sentiment is probably flowing over into support for A2's shareprice.

I'm a shareholder of A2 as of a month or so back and very happy with the last couple of weeks shareprice performance.

Going forward I'm happy to stay a shareholder as I like the tone of the Chairmans (Cliff Cook) communications over the last year or so. They all have a positive future outlook for this company.

Any new longer life products with better margins has to be good news for A2.

A couple of comments I especially liked from the recent FLLYR announcement dated 14th June 2007.


quote:"A2C has turned the corner with its reinvestment in Australia and launch into the US market."

Cook states that A2C is actively pursing new product opportunities other than liquid milk.

"We see the potential for a2 milk(TM) to be used in a wide array of functional milk-based applications such as infant formula, protein powders and dietary supplements. These additional opportunities will allow A2C to launch shelf stable, high margin products, which will provide consumers worldwide with the premium benefits of a2 milk(TM)".

Enumerate
21-06-2007, 04:34 PM
quote:Originally posted by D_Pick
Going forward I'm happy to stay a shareholder as I like the tone of the Chairmans (Cliff Cook) communications over the last year or so. They all have a positive future outlook for this company.


Yes, I agree.

The company has a bit of the "suppressed science" tone to it. The fact that BCM7, the metabolic by-product of A1 beta caesine, causes so many blood lipid problems and is something that Fonterra wants to keep quiet. The solution is so simple ... the benefits are manifest ...

I have been a holder for a very long time - before the share consolidation. Current pricing is still lower than my entry. Fortunately the vast bulk of my holding was acquired during the darkest days.

When you think of upside revenues for this stock - some very very large numbers are possible.

spike
13-09-2007, 07:58 PM
With another book being released about the advantages of A2 milk it will be interesting the affects on the share price over the next few days.

Enumerate
16-09-2007, 08:24 PM
I am firmly of the belief that A2 milk could be a very significant development for the dairy industry. Ignoring the science, for a moment, the marketing "spin" is a golden gift if you want to differentiate NZ milk production from the rest in new and emerging markets.

Technical advances in gene testing technology mean that the base costs of the company in certifying herds are dropping through the floor. Hopefully the value of having an A2 certified herd and the value of the brand will mean that this translates to increased margin.

Of course, an organisation like Fonterra should wake up to the value here. For the moment, A2 is building A2 herds in the US and Australia ...

Jess9
18-09-2007, 11:41 AM
Looks like the recent A2 health interest, and the accompanying share spike were taken as an opp by larger holders to sell down.

I thought I heard in radio commentry that Fonterra has A2 bull semen already and could if it wished, have an all A2 heard in a short period of time.

Anyone know:

1 How does A2's control over its intellectual property allow it to make money from Fonterra (if at all)?

2 How much (i.e. to what extent and for what period) protection does their intellectual property have, non NZ i.e. world markets. For example can it easily be copied/duplicated by others and not infringe on A2 rights?

Enumerate
18-09-2007, 08:34 PM
Patents protect gene tests and Trademarks protect the A2 brand.

If you are going to certify a herd as A2 you need access to both sets of IP.

It is no use saying - "We think we are dominant A2-beta-caseine" - much easier to say "A2 Milk" - you need a license to say that.

Patents are of the order of 18 years - Trademarks are more or less forever.

corran
07-11-2011, 03:34 AM
more than 4 years since the last post on this thread! anyone still watching or holding ATM?

I've got a few tucked away in the bottom drawer, I don't follow them closely but saw they recently announced their first ever annual profit. Share price is up about 100% so far this year.

waikare
07-11-2011, 06:56 PM
more than 4 years since the last post on this thread! anyone still watching or holding ATM?

I've got a few tucked away in the bottom drawer, I don't follow them closely but saw they recently announced their first ever annual profit. Share price is up about 100% so far this year.

I brought 25,000 replacing my Charlies as a my speculation stock a few months back. They don’t appear to trade all that often, going on memory I don’t think any were traded at all last week, but today 243,000 went through closing at $0.23. I'll also have put mine in the bottem draw, and will have a look in about 4years, thats if Fontera havn't taken them over before that.

Lizard
08-11-2011, 08:27 AM
Well done to holders and good to see an NZ company make it from start-up to profitable business!

However, while it seems like the risk around investing in ATM has reduced, if I was holding, I'd be considering taking some profits.

While a maiden profit is a great result, it is difficult to see the kind of significant growth in NPAT for 2012 that would justify a PE of 55. And while it appears the market has room to expand, it is likely to require a significant amount of capital to achieve growth, unless they use the royalty approach.

I guess the reality is that at least half the value in the shares is coming from the intellectual property assets rather than the operating business. A much more tricky area to value and requires a bit more knowledge and time. However, unless the IP is sold to a larger entity via takeover or royalty, it is going to require ongoing capital to extract value from it, which would tend to mean ongoing dilution.

Can't rule out a sudden takeover announcement - still small enough that someone might offer a premium to get the IP - but, personally, I don't generally invest on speculative binary outcomes, as I find it too hit and miss.

waikare
15-11-2011, 07:21 PM
Well done to holders and good to see an NZ company make it from start-up to profitable business!

However, while it seems like the risk around investing in ATM has reduced, if I was holding, I'd be considering taking some profits.

While a maiden profit is a great result, it is difficult to see the kind of significant growth in NPAT for 2012 that would justify a PE of 55. And while it appears the market has room to expand, it is likely to require a significant amount of capital to achieve growth, unless they use the royalty approach.

I guess the reality is that at least half the value in the shares is coming from the intellectual property assets rather than the operating business. A much more tricky area to value and requires a bit more knowledge and time. However, unless the IP is sold to a larger entity via takeover or royalty, it is going to require ongoing capital to extract value from it, which would tend to mean ongoing dilution.

Can't rule out a sudden takeover announcement - still small enough that someone might offer a premium to get the IP - but, personally, I don't generally invest on speculative binary outcomes, as I find it too hit and miss.

Yesterday ATM went up 2 cents from 25 and today went up another 5 cents to 30. Over 30% in two days. Perhaps it time to heed your advise Lizard and take litle profit. Or maybe hang on a little longer, after a few more details emerge from todays news release.

A2 Corporation Limited is pleased to announce an expansion of its operations into the United Kingdom and Ireland. The Company has today entered into agreements to establish a sales and marketing joint venture in association with Robert Wiseman Dairies PLC (Robert Wiseman).

waikare
21-02-2012, 05:01 PM
Todays medis release, a good result, I guess this company has a future

A2 more than triples 1H net profit as sales jump 56%
Tuesday 21st February 2012
Text too small?
A2 Corporation, the NZAX-listed alternative milk company, said first-half net profit more than tripled, boosted by a legal settlement, as sales jumped 56 percent.
Net profit rose to $3.1 million in the six months ended Dec. 31, including a $1.1 million settlement of a legal dispute with a former Korean licensee, compared with $900,000 in the same six months of 2010, it said in a statement.
Sales rose to $30.1 million from $19.3 million with the vast majority of revenue in Australia where the company said it now has 4.7 percent of fresh milk in the grocery category.
Chairman Cliff Cook said the company's results were very pleasing in the face of price discounting of fresh milk in Australia.
“While the Australian supermarket chains are going head-to-head in discounting standard milk, a2 brand sales have continued to accelerate with no change in our pricing,” Cook said.
Managing director Geoffrey Babidge said the growth is “consistent with our growth strategy to position a2 as an innovative, fast-moving consumer goods and ingredients company with a global focus.”
Rising Australian sales “demonstrate that consumers in this market understand the a2 brand proposition and are willing to pay a significant premium over standard milk for our products,” Babidge said.
A2 claims its milk is healthier than traditional A1-type milk although those claims haven't been backed by scientific evidence.
The company plans to launch in Britain later this calendar year and is looking at expanding into other markets “in the not too distant future.”
It is working on introducing an a2 branded infant formula in a market in Asia, he said.
It is also “continuing to explore opportunities” with its New Zealand licensee to build brand awareness and sales “consistent with the successful business model in Australia.” New Zealand sales were just $1.7 million of which just $3,598 was to external customers. New Zealand sales to external customers were reported as $214,417 for the six months ended December 2010.
A2 will commission its own A$8.4 million fresh milk processing facility in Sydney later this month and initially it will supply the New South Wales market while existing contract processors will support growing demand in other states of Australia, the company said.
A2 didn't declare a dividend. Its shares are up 1 cent at 26 cents, down from their high at 30 cents last November but up from the 11 cent low in March last year.

waikare
16-03-2012, 12:43 PM
IRG have recommended A2 Corp as “Speculative”
I find this a little odd as they have been in the black for the last year, their revenue has increased 56% for the 6 months period ending Dec 2011 to $30 mill. With a profit of $3.1 mill. They are in the process of selling their milk in the UK, so this should add to their income big time.
Currently trading at $0.43 (been high as $0.45)

Anna Naum
30-07-2012, 09:06 AM
Macquarie Research today
Price catalyst
12-month price target: NZ$0.56 based on a Sum of Parts methodology.
Catalyst: FY12 results announcement in September, strategic review results,
infant formula strategy announcements.

Action and recommendation
A2 Corporation continues rapidly down its growth path. Notwithstanding
some small operational issues in Australia, it continues to hit its development
targets. With the potential for a value enhancing transaction and development
of new markets we remain comfortable with our investment thesis.
Outperform maintained.

slimwin
19-11-2012, 02:38 PM
Managing to get in the news papers in the UK.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-2234532/Dannii-Minogue-Star-says-new-product-helps-beat-dairy-sensitivity.html

Balance
28-11-2012, 09:14 AM
Deosn't appear to be the most talked about company on here but out of interest there is a trading halt on A2C as of 9:00am. Any thoughts about what this might be about?

Main board listing?

slimwin
28-11-2012, 09:20 AM
Me too.would they have a trading halt for that though?

Balance
28-11-2012, 09:32 AM
Me too.would they have a trading halt for that though?

It is material.

Everwood
28-11-2012, 10:09 AM
I have been expecting the NZX Main Board announcement, but it has also been written elsewhere they have been contemplating listing on ASX or another Asian Exchange. http://www.weeklytimesnow.com.au/article/2012/11/01/547661_dairy.html

CJ
28-11-2012, 10:37 AM
Just looked at their market cap - $400m!!!

Why are they still on the NZAX?

They only have $37m of equity and $10m of that relates to goodwill. PE of 89 (all per Google) so a growth prospect?

macduffy
28-11-2012, 10:51 AM
Just looked at their market cap - $400m!!!

Why are they still on the NZAX?

They only have $37m of equity and $10m of that relates to goodwill. PE of 89 (all per Google) so a growth prospect?

Would they have a wide enough spread of shareholders to qualify for NZX listing? I'm well out of date with the requirements but would think they would need a sell-down from the majority shareholders first.

The BOWMAN
05-12-2012, 08:23 AM
Trading halt again. It was basically nothing they placed the trading halt. Wonder whether this time will be equally insignificant.

noodles
05-12-2012, 01:24 PM
capital raising and sell down at 50c. Looks like existing shareholders are being screwed. That is a massive discount. No SPP or rights issue to avoid dilution. This is a pity.

I have no position, but am disappointed for retail investors.

Everwood
05-12-2012, 02:27 PM
I have recently bought some shares after selling my FPA Shares. At the same time I increased my holdings in DIL & BFW. I would have liked to taken part in SPP because it screws existing shareholders with dilution.

Snoopy
05-12-2012, 02:41 PM
capital raising and sell down at 50c. Looks like existing shareholders are being screwed. That is a massive discount. No SPP or rights issue to avoid dilution. This is a pity.

I have no position, but am disappointed for retail investors.

This is the problem with investing in shares not listed on the main board. There isn't the same protection for small investors. This would never happen if A2 was listed on the NZX already.

SNOOPY

CJ
05-12-2012, 03:29 PM
This is the problem with investing in shares not listed on the main board. There isn't the same protection for small investors. This would never happen if A2 was listed on the NZX already.You mean how XRO major shareholders sold out and a placement done at $6 when the shareprice was 6.40 with no placement for small shareholders.

noodles
05-12-2012, 05:02 PM
The minimum subscription to buy at 50c is $500K . I'm not that rich.

Balance
06-12-2012, 07:45 AM
It's events like this that make me long for the better investing days back in the late 70s early 80s (before the hairdressing taxi driver investor madness took hold) when Sir Pat and Peter Goodman used to undertake equity raising for Goodmans by issuing 1:4 cash issues followed by a 1:5 bonus issue. All shareholders whether small or large were treated on an equal basis and had an equal chance to profit from the equity raising if that was their choice (and maintain their equity position in the company by doing so). If they didn't want to take up their offer they could profit from that too by selling their rights to the cash issue. Everybody benefited equally. Now its Wall Street looking after Wall Street and screw the little shareholder. Has the penny not dropped for these guys that that is one of the reasons why we don't have enough retail investors investing in New Zealand equities, because Main street doesn't trust these guys or have a lot of respect for them?

Plenty of shares around at 50 cents. Just give your broker a call.

Everwood
06-12-2012, 09:04 AM
Plenty of shares around at 50 cents. Just give your broker a call.


I just called ASB Securities, and I was told they are only available to institutions.

lowrolling
06-12-2012, 09:21 AM
I just called ASB Securities, and I was told they are only available to institutions.

Same with direct broking and forsyth barr

biker
06-12-2012, 09:55 AM
Did they give you a descent sized allocation of ATM?

Everwood
06-12-2012, 10:03 AM
Mmm. You might need to work on your broker relationship so they take you a bit more seriously. Sucks to buy on market and miss out on these kinds of placements.

I know a lot of people have disdain for broker advice, and that they are self-interested, that their research can't be trusted and that they are happy to use discount online brokerage services instead of pricier broker houses, but this is why I like to have a 20 year relationship with one firm who respects my business.

If you rang your broker right now, could he purchase some shares for you at 50c? If so, could you please tell me which broking company you use? It will be handy to know in the future. I have only been investing for 5 years.

Balance
06-12-2012, 10:55 AM
I just called ASB Securities, and I was told they are only available to institutions.

No point trying the discount brokers.

Try UBS, Forsyth Barr, FNZ Capital, Craigs or Macquarie.

Close off at 12 pm today so you have 5 mins.

Balance
06-12-2012, 11:24 AM
Craigs are only offering them to its wealthy clients (>$2M).

That's a bit sad for their smaller clients?

Balance
06-12-2012, 12:15 PM
The real issues here is the Securities Act which clearly favours the wealthy getting wealthier.

I don't get it.

ATM is already listed and at anytime of any trading day, any investor is free to buy or sell ATM shares.

Why should it be any difference because a few big shareholders are selling down? Especially as the reason for selling down seems reasonable - i.e.. to facilitate relist onto NZX main board?

noodles
06-12-2012, 12:55 PM
I don't get it.

ATM is already listed and at anytime of any trading day, any investor is free to buy or sell ATM shares.

Why should it be any difference because a few big shareholders are selling down? Especially as the reason for selling down seems reasonable - i.e.. to facilitate relist onto NZX main board?

There is also a capital raising. Not just a sell down. This means dilution for shareholders. This should be brought up at the AGM.

Snoopy
06-12-2012, 01:19 PM
You mean how XRO major shareholders sold out and a placement done at $6 when the shareprice was 6.40 with no placement for small shareholders.


What size was the XRO placement in relation to the capital already on issue? How does that compare with the ATM placement? I know such placements do happen but generally the dilution should not be that bad. I remember when PGW did their initial placement of new shares to Agria, it was at a premium to market price. Mind you PGW does make real money (as does ATM), and XRO does not.

SNOOPY

noodles
06-12-2012, 01:57 PM
ATM: prior to the announcement there 604 million shares on issue. They are issuing another 40mill.

Not that bad I suppose. Still there is dilution and inequality among shareholders

Everwood
06-12-2012, 02:31 PM
I'm only small investor compared to some investors who post here. I only have 5000 Shares in ATM, but I would have liked the opportunity to buy another $2000 worth at 50 cents.

winner69
06-12-2012, 08:27 PM
Sorry balance, I'm not sure I understand what you don't get (and I have had a few xmas wines so fogive me if I am way off track ;) )?
The tone I'm getting here, from people a bit disappointed is re. the fact that shares are being offered to basically the rich/connected @ .50 (a big discount to the market price) while the average jo in many cases can't participate in the offering. Regular retail investors are then seeing their current holding being diluted and can't do anything about it. Ive suggested already that maybe this is what A2M needed to do to fast track the uplisting and at the same time raise some capital, but what I'm seeing is some unhappiness from the average retail investor, and I guess a few neutrals as well....

You have to live with the facts of life that small investors are only thre to get screwed and there is little you can do to change that .... except get Occupy Wall St things happening again

Small shareholders are not in therir thinking

waikare
07-12-2012, 06:47 AM
You have to live with the facts of life that small investors are only thre to get screwed and there is little you can do to change that .... except get Occupy Wall St things happening again

Small shareholders are not in therir thinking

I am also not impressed to see my holding being diluted, while I have to agree with Winner69, being a small investor has little clout in matters such as this instance they do want they want to do. But: the CEO / board needs to understand that they need small shareholders on their books, the likes of ATM would not be able to list on the NZX without us.

tango
07-12-2012, 07:52 AM
I also am disappointed that I didn't get the chance to buy more shares. I also am a small shareholder (33,000 shares) but I would happily have bought another 33,000 shares at 50 cents.
And like others I'm disappointed that the shares were sold at such a huge discount to market value

Balance
07-12-2012, 08:04 AM
I also am disappointed that I didn't get the chance to buy more shares. I also am a small shareholder (33,000 shares) but I would happily have bought another 33,000 shares at 50 cents.
And like others I'm disappointed that the shares were sold at such a huge discount to market value

180m shares siisued and sold at 50 cents.

I have a suspicion that you will get an opportunity to pick up some of them from the flippers at 51 cents in the next week.

Question - will you be there to pick them up on the market?

Balance
07-12-2012, 08:16 AM
Hi Balance,

So do you think the SP is going as low as 0.51c next week? I have no idea to be fair, but that sounds suprisingly low to me?

Just a feeling that 180m shares issued at 50 cents is a lot and as they went principally to high net worth individuals in big licks, could be some flippers among them.

CJ
07-12-2012, 08:17 AM
Rights issues aren't that hard. Pretty much a template document though there are additional costs involved and does take slightly longer than the 3-4 days this has taken.

The NZX (as a market operator) should try to discourage these discounted placements to the rich to try and encourage the small guys into the market.

The fact is, this is the way it works, us small guys just have to deal with it.

Balance
07-12-2012, 08:52 AM
Well, we are about 20min from finding out I guess...At this stage the opening price will be 60c, but no doubt that will change before open.

Can see all the flippers now lining up to sell at 55 cents - quick 10% is what they are hooping for.

I am expecting a few to move to 54, then 53 soon

Balance
07-12-2012, 08:54 AM
I also am disappointed that I didn't get the chance to buy more shares. I also am a small shareholder (33,000 shares) but I would happily have bought another 33,000 shares at 50 cents.
And like others I'm disappointed that the shares were sold at such a huge discount to market value

Put the 33,000 to buy at 51 cents - you may just get lucky this morning

The BOWMAN
07-12-2012, 09:47 AM
In my view, ATM is also a bubble on the market just like Xero. I wouldn't buy into it unless it is below 20c. As with any bubble, it may take an awful long time to drop to the actual value it is. But it is just not worth the high risk of bursting!

GRIFFIN
07-12-2012, 10:04 AM
Well done the Bowman, a superbly negative post, i think you will pick some up later today at a real discount .

777
07-12-2012, 10:13 AM
Well done the Bowman, a superbly negative post, i think you will pick some up later today at a real discount .

How many people are likely to read this thread and act on it? Not many in my opinion.

The BOWMAN
07-12-2012, 10:30 AM
Well done the Bowman, a superbly negative post, i think you will pick some up later today at a real discount .

I'm posting to offer the other side of the argument. There are numerous times I avoided mistakes after I read some member's posts that offered counter opinions. And this is exactly why we are coming to this forum, to help each other.

Balance
07-12-2012, 10:34 AM
Looks like 52 cents soon?

So how many of those who expressed disappointment at not getting shares at 50 cents are now lining up to buy at 50/51 cents?

Balance
07-12-2012, 10:37 AM
Can see all the flippers now lining up to sell at 55 cents - quick 10% is what they are hooping for.

I am expecting a few to move to 54, then 53 soon

Exactly as predicted.

CJ
07-12-2012, 10:40 AM
So how many of those who expressed disappointment at not getting shares at 50 cents are now lining up to buy at 50/51 cents?As with Fonterra, I only expressed disappointment with the process. I do not know enough about either to have been interested.

I also expressed disappointment at XRO not offering a placement to small shareholders (as they have done in the past) and I am very disappointed I wont be able to buy in at $6 which is probably a lot closer to proper value than 7.75 where I sold out. If it dropped down close to $6 again, I would buy back in.

I also bought into STU at just above the placement price though I viewed that differently as that was a shareholder placement, rather than a company initiated placement as is the case with ATM, FSF, and XRO.

Balance
07-12-2012, 10:51 AM
Indeed, well spotted - I find it a little amusing as an amateur watcher of human psychology to see people rush for a quick 10% when the potential is so much higher.

Hope you managed to get the holding you were keen on.

Plenty of volume sellers now lining up at 53 cents. I can only see small scale retail buying at 52 cents.

Question of time before one breaks rank and it's 52 cents.

My point is that too many look at the pre-placement price of 68 cents and get themselves excited at 50 cents.

The market is not that dumb and the brokers would have canvassed their client base enough to assess that the placement had to be done at 50 cents to be successful. There was never any real opportunity to make a 20% or 30% gain, post the placement.

Anonymous
07-12-2012, 11:46 AM
Sparky or anyone else who got in on the placement, were you scaled back?

Everwood
07-12-2012, 02:48 PM
I picked up some more at 54 cents. If the stock drops little bit more I'm not concerned about it. When I buy something, I look at the potential future growth over the next 3 to 5 years.

slimwin
07-12-2012, 03:29 PM
Just wrote the company an email expressing my disappointment.

Balance
07-12-2012, 03:45 PM
Just wrote the company an email expressing my disappointment.

52 cents being sold now in volume.

You may consider yourself lucky soon and get shares at under 50 cents?

Anna Naum
07-12-2012, 08:42 PM
Which broker did you get the shares through biker?

waikare
08-12-2012, 06:24 PM
Just wrote the company an email expressing my disappointment.

Have just done the same Slimwin.

GRIFFIN
09-12-2012, 06:25 AM
There must be some hacked off punters who bought into ATM in recent times but going forward it must be short term pain for long term gain surely.

slimwin
09-12-2012, 07:31 AM
One would hope, but nobody can predict the future.

Dej
09-12-2012, 11:05 AM
Did you get any response Waikare/Slimwin? I am also an investor who had 8300 shares (small I realize) and didn't get the chance to buy in at 50c, but am thinking of buying some more shares on monday if the price stays this low. Even though the company did this, I still have faith in them and their ability.

G on
09-12-2012, 01:12 PM
I'm a very recent investor in A2, 1 week. Also sent email expressing my opinion of not being included and hoping for a different mindset in the future. Maybe enough feedback from small investors may sway future dealings. I won't hold my breath though. I am hopeful this will be a small hiccup that will translate into a great business. Time will tell. Of which I will give it. Unless I get screwed over again.

slimwin
09-12-2012, 06:58 PM
No reply expected from rant. I hope they get the idea to include the great unwashed next time they do a raising.

forest
09-12-2012, 09:00 PM
Does anybody expect another equity raising and if so what would it be for?

Balance
10-12-2012, 09:43 AM
52 cents being sold now in volume.

You may consider yourself lucky soon and get shares at under 50 cents?

51 cents buyers and 52 cents sellers.

Wait for the 50 cents placement shares to come out this week.

Then, it will be 49 cents buyer and 50 cents seller.

ratkin
10-12-2012, 10:47 AM
51 cents buyers and 52 cents sellers.

Wait for the 50 cents placement shares to come out this week.

Then, it will be 49 cents buyer and 50 cents seller.

Dont really trust this outfit , am staying well clear. Did own a few way back when but sold out years ago

biker
10-12-2012, 11:41 AM
Dont really trust this outfit ,

Why's that Ratkin?

ratkin
10-12-2012, 03:43 PM
Why's that Ratkin?

Nothing specific , just a feeling, combined with a very high valuation , also they didnt take very good care of their current shareholders with the way they handled the placement , was at too large a discount .

waikare
10-12-2012, 04:51 PM
Did you get any response Waikare/Slimwin? I am also an investor who had 8300 shares (small I realize) and didn't get the chance to buy in at 50c, but am thinking of buying some more shares on monday if the price stays this low. Even though the company did this, I still have faith in them and their ability.

They haven't botherd to reply or respond or even acknowledge my email, I guess it sort of supports Ratkin's comment's having little concern for it's shareholders.

lou
10-12-2012, 05:19 PM
51 cents buyers and 52 cents sellers.

Wait for the 50 cents placement shares to come out this week.

Then, it will be 49 cents buyer and 50 cents seller.

I thought that these shares have already been issued.

noodles
10-12-2012, 07:02 PM
Given the massive drop in market Cap, I wonder if they will even make the nzx50 now? Now that would really be a stuff up.

Dej
11-12-2012, 02:16 PM
And I see that Milford Asset Management has also confirmed they hold 5.75% (of which some is for the NZ Super Fund in the post I mention above)

https://www.nzx.com/companies/ATM/announcements/230965

To me, this is a good sign. Milford are a well managed firm who are offering great returns. I also observed that in there Active Fund they had 1.1% of the $333 million in ATM before the dilution. And just FYI, this fund has a return around the 15-20% mark this year as well.

Balance
11-12-2012, 02:56 PM
50 cents sellers in volume.

All those of you who were complaining about access to stock at 50 cents, hope you are lining up to buy at 50 cents or 49 vents.

Do that or forever hold your peace.

Balance
11-12-2012, 05:38 PM
indeed, rip off a stagger, and feel smug about it!


Good on you, STC! Sincerely meant and hope you do well out of buying the shares off them.

Deafening silence though from the others.

Anonymous
11-12-2012, 08:06 PM
Thanks for your answer earlier Sparky. I've picked some more up at these levels. Do we know who would drop out of the NZX50?

lou
11-12-2012, 10:01 PM
I have got a question for the group. $20mil of new capital was raised at 50cents. On the first day of trading turnover was just under $160mil. Who were the buyers an who were the sellers?

winner69
12-12-2012, 05:08 AM
I have got a question for the group. $20mil of new capital was raised at 50cents. On the first day of trading turnover was just under $160mil. Who were the buyers an who were the sellers?

$70 mill was the sell down by the major holders to the brokers

Another $70m (prob close to that amount) rrecorded as the brokers hocked them off

Then a lot of redistribution

Plenty of clipping the ticket on the way through eh .... who has made the easy money (oh sorry there was some risk eh)

Balance
12-12-2012, 08:46 AM
I've effectively asked that same question (along with other Qs) on this forum but with no reply. Am still interested to find out.

Other countries have A2 milk cows in plenty. It is only in NZ that our dairy cows are mostly non A2 milk type.

That's my understanding from the company a few years ago. Hence the push into the Australian and UK markets.

Balance
12-12-2012, 09:59 AM
Just wrote the company an email expressing my disappointment.

Hope you bought a few at 49 cents and 50 cents.

Seems to be like the ATM directors did a good job massaging the sp down to 49 cents for those who could not participate in the more expensive 50 cents?

Balance
12-12-2012, 10:00 AM
Have just done the same Slimwin.

You bought some at 49 cents?

Balance
12-12-2012, 10:12 AM
Let's start a rumour that A2 milk has been downgraded to C2 due to the cows not studying sufficiently at their end-of-years.

We should be able to buy more at 47c soon.

Looks like those who complained and moaned about missing out on the 50 cents placement have missed out on buying in at an even more attractive 49 cents.

The stock has turned imo and the weak-bladdered flippers have panicked out at 49 cents and 50 cents.

Institutions are now moving in to massage the sp back to at least 55 cents by year end.

We can't have a loss showing in the book for year end, can we?

CJ
12-12-2012, 10:22 AM
Looks like those who complained and moaned about missing out on the 50 cents placement have missed out on buying in at an even more attractive 49 cents.Two points:

- Most people were complained that they were offered the shares which was bad from a small share holder perspective - ie. the principle
- maybe if they had sold the shares to existing shareholders (ie. those that actually believe in the company) rather than stag'ers, the shareprice may still be above 60c rather than below 50c!!!

My protest was from a principle basis. Not a shareholder and didn't want to be. But it sets a bad precedent for other company's which I may be a shareholder in (like XRO which did exactly the same!)

Balance
12-12-2012, 10:29 AM
Two points:

- Most people were complained that they were offered the shares which was bad from a small share holder perspective - ie. the principle
- maybe if they had sold the shares to existing shareholders (ie. those that actually believe in the company) rather than stag'ers, the shareprice may still be above 60c rather than below 50c!!!

My protest was from a principle basis. Not a shareholder and didn't want to be. But it sets a bad precedent for other company's which I may be a shareholder in (like XRO which did exactly the same!)

Don't disagree with you, CJ.

It irks me too but I have seen too many moaners and groaners over the years who talk a lot but do little.

Existing shareholders should surely welcome the opportunity to pick off the flippers at 49 cents? ATM's sp a year from now is what matters, not this week.

Remember Trust Bank? Same situation with punters moaning about getting bugger all stock at the IPO but when the sp dipped 20% below issue price, they were nowhere to be seen!

Likewise, Contact Energy.

slimwin
12-12-2012, 12:06 PM
Only if they have the cash to do so.

Balance
12-12-2012, 12:20 PM
Only if they have the cash to do so.

No cash means they have no funds to put in anyway? What's the point of groaning and moaning?

Whether the shares are placed at 45 cents, 50 cents or 60 cents - irrelevant!

Them's the break investing in the market.

Balance
12-12-2012, 12:56 PM
51 cents buyers and 52 cents sellers.

Wait for the 50 cents placement shares to come out this week.

Then, it will be 49 cents buyer and 50 cents seller.

Strong reversal now in place.

Volume buyers and sellers backing off.

All the 51 cents taken out.

The instos who bought at 50 cents in huge colume will spend another $10m and push the stock back to 60 cents imo.

slimwin
12-12-2012, 01:03 PM
Hope so. I need the cash to pay half of everything I own to the ex. Relevant to me.

Balance
12-12-2012, 01:06 PM
Hope so. I need the cash to pay half of everything I own to the ex. Relevant to me.

Sorry to read that. Hope it all works out.

Balance
12-12-2012, 01:23 PM
Strong reversal now in place.

Volume buyers and sellers backing off.

All the 51 cents taken out.

The instos who bought at 50 cents in huge colume will spend another $10m and push the stock back to 60 cents imo.

52 cents taken out.

winner69
12-12-2012, 01:30 PM
52 cents taken out.

53 cents next ... reckon 54 by end of the day

I in for a bit of play with the petty cash

Xerof
12-12-2012, 01:42 PM
Thanks for the running price commentary Balance - fascinating.

Balance
12-12-2012, 02:09 PM
Thanks for the running price commentary Balance - fascinating.

As easy to read as an ABC book.

See all those sellers scurrying away now that the big instos have come out to play?

Milford's take of 17m shares would have given a lot of confidence to other investors and I note with Milford that they usually leave some fuel in the tank to top up.

I can see them buying another 5m shares or so.

Balance
12-12-2012, 02:14 PM
Thanks for the running price commentary Balance - fascinating.

Idea is to make some money from all this predictable behavior, right?

Snoopy
12-12-2012, 03:34 PM
Idea is to make some money from all this predictable behavior, right?


You guys are all far too clever for me with this stuff.

I look at things differently. A2 milk is a product that does no harm, but there is no substantiated research to suggest it does any good either. I guess perceived health benefits are enough to sell it. But then again it has to compete against other so called healthy options like soy milk and rice milk. I am impressed with what A2 has done so far , particularly in Australia. But there is no getting away from the fact that this is a one product company with unproven benefits. As an investor, this hits all the red flags for me. I will leave you guys alone now to play your little game of pass the parcel. I would suggest you all think about who is playing the music.

SNOOPY

noodles
12-12-2012, 03:45 PM
Coles is playing the music?

winner69
12-12-2012, 03:47 PM
Idea is to make some money from all this predictable behavior, right?

Quite a few parcels being crossed eh balance

CJ
12-12-2012, 03:51 PM
But there is no getting away from the fact that this is a one product company with unproven benefits. What, like Fonterra?

waikare
12-12-2012, 06:39 PM
I think that's a little unfair. If anything, they are probably reflecting on the fact they've received a number of these letters, and are thinking about a quality response they want to send back.

I've been involved in corporate + govt comms, and I know they don't put pen to paper lightly because of the risk of ill thought comms landing in the hands in the media causing them further embarrassment.

Fo those who may be Interested I received a reply today from Geoff Babidge CEO, this is what he wrote:.

Thank you for your enquiry.

A2C has grown substantially, with a c.50% increase in revenues and more than 180% appreciation in share price in the last twelve months.

Following the announcement of the outcomes the strategic review, the launch of a2(tm) brand fresh milk in the UK and the signing of the infant formula agreement with China State Farm in China, your Board determined it was the appropriate time to position the Company for its next phase of growth by changing the Company's listing to the NZX Main Board.



As part of the change in listing, three of the Company's largest shareholders resolved to sell down a percentage of their holdings (totalling 140 million shares), which will increase share liquidity.

This does not represent any dilution to existing shareholders as no new shares have been issued.



The Company's issuance of 40 million new shares (representing c.7% of the total shares on issue) was undertaken to allow the Company to dedicate additional resources to accelerate growth.



Given the size and nature of the equity raising and need for new investors to be added to the Company's share register, an offer made only available to eligible investors (primarily being large institutions) was deemed most appropriate in the circumstances to allow the Company to achieve its objective of increasing share liquidity for the benefit of all shareholders.



We are grateful for your past and continuing support and look forward to accelerating the Company's next phase of growth, which we expect will benefit all shareholders.



Sincerely,



Geoffrey Babidge

Managing Director & CEO

slimwin
12-12-2012, 06:41 PM
Yep,same reply as me.

ratkin
12-12-2012, 07:34 PM
As part of the change in listing, three of the Company's largest shareholders resolved to sell down a percentage of their holdings (totalling 140 million shares), which will increase share liquidity.

Sold their shares to increase liquidity? Very altruistic of them,

Balance
13-12-2012, 08:15 AM
You guys are all far too clever for me with this stuff.

I look at things differently. A2 milk is a product that does no harm, but there is no substantiated research to suggest it does any good either. I guess perceived health benefits are enough to sell it. But then again it has to compete against other so called healthy options like soy milk and rice milk. I am impressed with what A2 has done so far , particularly in Australia. But there is no getting away from the fact that this is a one product company with unproven benefits. As an investor, this hits all the red flags for me. I will leave you guys alone now to play your little game of pass the parcel. I would suggest you all think about who is playing the music.

SNOOPY

http://www.stuff.co.nz/the-press/news/7373544/A2-milk-soars-overseas-but-not-in-NZ

What you have just written is indicative to me of the unfortunate underlying psychic preference of New Zealanders when dealing with most issues - reactive rather than preventive, ambulance at the bottom of the cliff rather than fence at the top of the cliff.

Examples? Pike River blows up and now, the government and miners are scrambling to prevent future explosions. Finance companies meltdown and the government then introduces regulations. Too little, too late and extremely messy and expensive to deal with the fallout, after the fact. Reserve Bank NZ typically cuts interest rates only after NZ is in recession, not before. Raises interest rates only after an asset bubble is inflating close to explosion.

It is different overseas - they try to deal preventively. The case for consuming A2M is logically compelling - why take the risk of consuming A1 milk when you do not need to?

That is why A2 milk has taken off in Australia and now, in UK.

And this will be particularly the case in Asia which will prove in time to be huge for A2 milk. The Asians spend a fortune on preventive health products and A2 milk hits all the right buttons.

Balance
13-12-2012, 08:44 AM
As for being a one product company, CJ is exactly right - Fonterra is one product company then by definition?

Thing is, ATM can branch out into any number of A2 milk derived products but at this stage, let the company optimizes the huge potential first in just plain old shelf milk.

chippy52
13-12-2012, 09:17 AM
You forgot they also have icecream.

Balance
13-12-2012, 09:32 AM
54 cents now.

So those who missed out on the placement could have bought in at 49 cents or 50 cents at worse, and ride the trend now back to 60 cents.

Stop moaning and groaning, and don't miss the A2 for the A1.

winner69
13-12-2012, 11:34 AM
54 cents now.



and higher by end of day you reckon balance

Still reasonable volume for the punters as well

fungus pudding
13-12-2012, 11:46 AM
Like Blis! :-)

Hell's teeth! I hope not.

Balance
13-12-2012, 12:41 PM
and higher by end of day you reckon balance

Still reasonable volume for the punters as well

Pause at 55 cents as that's a quick 10% for those who got plenty from the placement.

After the stock is absorbed, I would say it will effortlessly move to 60 cents.

Especially if one of the Chinese companies decides to have a play - just like with Comvita.

(And I do not mean Cerebos Gregg)

Balance
13-12-2012, 01:41 PM
Brokers busy ringing up those clients who obtained placement stock to take quick 10% profit.

Meanwhile, intos are now paying 55 cents so I suspect we will see 56 cents by tonite.

The numbers are simple - 160m shares placed at 50 cents. Another $10m to take the sp to 60 cents mean the instos show 20% return by year end on most of the 160m shares.

Balance
13-12-2012, 01:46 PM
Balance - which brokers, can you share? My one hasn't tried that on me! Though he knows that I am probably likely to laugh.

That's what I have picked up from my broker - i.e. that some of the brokers are telling their clients to take a quick 10% profit.

If I were to take a guess, it will be the brokers with trading clients like UBS.

Snoopy
13-12-2012, 02:08 PM
Originally Posted by Snoopy
"But there is no getting away from the fact that this is a one product company with unproven benefits"

What, like Fonterra?

Fonterra has Mainland , Tip Top, Anchor. These are brands that have taken decades to build up. A2 has nothing like this.

When I said A2 was a one product company, I wasn't talking about just being a milk company though. What I meant was the whole thing hangs on the health benefits or not of A2.

CJ, I believe that ATM has enormous potential. If they can get to the stage of clipping the ticket on every cow in the western world , then ATM has the potential to be as big as Fonterra. That is the upside, which is probably bigger than any other company in the NZX50.

The problem I see is that if A2 is proven to offer no health benefits over A1, then the entire reason for A2 existing collapses. A2 milk doesn't taste any different to A1, given the same path through the food processing factory. In fact unless you are a chemist, I don't think it is possible to discern any difference. So if A2 'doesn't work' then A2 cheese, A2 ice cream, A2 liquid milk, A2 baby formula... All of them will go down. The company will be left with being a niche player to the fashionably ignorant. That will be the end of the A2 growth story.

I agree that A2 is unlikely to be proved to be more harmful than A1. So I agree that given the choice, all things being equal, choosing A2 makes sense. The problem is A1 is cheaper. So with milk prices high, then a cost input difference like this can matter, especially to those who purchase milk as an ingredient for further processing.

Good luck to those who invest in A2. On balance my feeling is that you will do well. But for me the potential downside risk is too significant to ignore. Of all the companies in the NZX 50, this would be the one that I would rate as having the highest chance of going bankrupt. That is why I wouldn't invest in ATM, which is not to say that those with a different risk profile to myself shouldn't do it


SNOOPY

Snoopy
13-12-2012, 02:28 PM
What you have just written is indicative to me of the unfortunate underlying psychic preference of New Zealanders when dealing with most issues - reactive rather than preventive, ambulance at the bottom of the cliff rather than fence at the top of the cliff.

Examples? Pike River blows up and now, the government and miners are scrambling to prevent future explosions. Finance companies meltdown and the government then introduces regulations. Too little, too late and extremely messy and expensive to deal with the fallout, after the fact. Reserve Bank NZ typically cuts interest rates only after NZ is in recession, not before. Raises interest rates only after an asset bubble is inflating close to explosion.

It is different overseas - they try to deal preventively. The case for consuming A2M is logically compelling - why take the risk of consuming A1 milk when you do not need to?


Even the leading A2 advocate in your article, Balance, said that the health message from A2 Corporation was for more milk in general to be consumed - with that being A2 - rather than A2 over A1.

The fact that NZers consume A1 milk is not a disaster in the sense that Pike River (your example) was. Consuming A1 milk in moderation for the average NZer will not send them to hospital as you imply. Granted for some A2 may have significant health benefits. But that doesn't justify a government decree that everyone must choose A2 milk. For most people on their normal diets, there are other dietary changes they can make that will lessen their chance of diabetes and heart disease that do not involve changing to A2, and are far more beneficial than simply changing to A2!

SNOOPY

CJ
13-12-2012, 02:47 PM
Both A2 and Fonterra have one input, being milk though the outputs are varied from MA2inland cheese to A2nchor butter or TipTop2 icecream.

Agree the key issue for them is if they aren't allowed to scientifically say A2 milk is healthier, then they are just a more expensive version of Fonterra. And if they do get that scientific backing, is there anything stopping Fonterra from splitting out its A2 cows into separate herds for those that actually need the special milk.

lou
14-12-2012, 09:20 PM
As a follow up, personally, the only sound reason I see for investing in ATM is that it gives one direct ownership, skin in the game if you will, in the diary industry. Which is a great business of that there is no doubt.

Agreed, also they are small enough to be able to focus on niche higher value diary products rather than whole milk powder.

Balance
15-12-2012, 09:18 AM
Even the leading A2 advocate in your article, Balance, said that the health message from A2 Corporation was for more milk in general to be consumed - with that being A2 - rather than A2 over A1.

The fact that NZers consume A1 milk is not a disaster in the sense that Pike River (your example) was. Consuming A1 milk in moderation for the average NZer will not send them to hospital as you imply. Granted for some A2 may have significant health benefits. But that doesn't justify a government decree that everyone must choose A2 milk. For most people on their normal diets, there are other dietary changes they can make that will lessen their chance of diabetes and heart disease that do not involve changing to A2, and are far more beneficial than simply changing to A2!

SNOOPY

It's all about mindset, Snoopy.

I read the David Ross situation and how the Securities Commission chose not to follow up on two alerts by investors, but instead continued to indulge that Aussie sheila Plane Jane (with no substance save as a female under a lesbian-inclined Helen Clark government) flying all over the globe telling everyone what a wonderful regulator she was, and I know that's why an ATM will never find the support it deserves in NZ. It's all talk and no action in NZ.

Another example is Diligent. Took the Americans to pump in serious risk capital and take the company to its real potential.

So excellent move by the company to move overseas and i have no doubts, especially in Asia, that it will prosper.

iceman
17-12-2012, 07:24 AM
http://keithwoodford.wordpress.com/2012/12/08/a2-corporation-joins-the-big-boys/

Interesting blog !

Dej
17-12-2012, 08:34 AM
http://keithwoodford.wordpress.com/2012/12/08/a2-corporation-joins-the-big-boys/

Interesting blog !

The first comment at the bottom of the page gives a good opinion on why the share offering price was that low.

binary
19-12-2012, 06:18 PM
NZ Super Fund have confirmed that they now have more than 5% of ATM, held through a variety of funds managers. A good vote of confidence.

https://www.nzx.com/companies/ATM/announcements/231382

Especially pleasing to see Kiwisavers star fund Milford Asset Management heavy in ATM stock.

Balance
19-12-2012, 07:13 PM
Especially pleasing to see Kiwisavers star fund Milford Asset Management heavy in ATM stock.

After Diligent, Milford is now looking for its next 10 baggers.

PEB could very well be the one to deliver next year.

After March, the stock will be either $1.00 or $0.10.

Dej
20-12-2012, 09:24 AM
Balance, I am not sure that Milford has a sigificant holding in PEB, they do hold ATM -about 1% of their active fund I think.

Agreed about ATM, as aforementioned they have 1.1% of 330m in the Active Fund, 1% of 83m in the Kiwisaver Active Growth fund, and 1% of 70m in the Trans-tasman fund.

Substantial holding.

winner69
16-01-2013, 11:36 AM
53 cents next ... reckon 54 by end of the day

I in for a bit of play with the petty cash

Lost patience bal ........ Took what profit there was and back in tHe petty cash tin for the next bit of fun

Longer term punters .....sure to get a boost today

JohnnyTheHorse
16-01-2013, 11:50 AM
Longer term punters .....sure to get a boost today

I've been waiting for the boost for awhile now! Still far too many sellers just getting their quick ~10% for the price to go up. Wouldn't expect too much movement until towards the end of Feb when there should be a sales update.

Dej
16-01-2013, 02:50 PM
.....sure to get a boost today

What makes you say that?

winner69
16-01-2013, 03:07 PM
What makes you say that?

Isn't it always the case when you get impatient something happens and the price takes off

Only in a for quick buck with the play money .... thought it would have moved from 51/52 to closer to 60 quicker than this ..... the plan didn't work out and that was the reason for selling and taking a little profit and waiting for the next bit of fun

Just trading prices with little interest in ATM itself at the present time

kizame
16-01-2013, 03:30 PM
Isn't it always the case when you get impatient something happens and the price takes off

Only in a for quick buck with the play money .... thought it would have moved from 51/52 to closer to 60 quicker than this ..... the plan didn't work out and that was the reason for selling and taking a little profit and waiting for the next bit of fun

Just trading prices with little interest in ATM itself at the present time

I don't know if you look at charts or not but this stock is poised to do something either up or down,the bollinger bands are quite tight and that usually means a breakout,just don't know when.

Dej
16-01-2013, 03:58 PM
I don't know if you look at charts or not but this stock is poised to do something either up or down,the bollinger bands are quite tight and that usually means a breakout,just don't know when.

Up hopefully!

JohnnyTheHorse
16-01-2013, 04:14 PM
I'd hope up as well! I can't imagine there would be too many people willing to sell under 50 cents. Theres no reason I can see for it to go down anyway, sales in Aussie are looking fantastic (biggest selling milk and 19th most popular grocery item in Aus) and the UK sales look pretty promising (based on their marketing campaigns etc). Cracking China will provide quite a boost to sales as well one would imagine.

kizame
17-01-2013, 07:41 AM
I must ask is ATM the only supplier of this milk in Aussie,or at least the big major supplier?

Dej
17-01-2013, 09:06 PM
This 53 - 54 price is getting boring now! Slowly chipping away at the 1 mil sell order I suppose.

GR8DAY
18-01-2013, 04:24 AM
..your'r right there Dej, if it carries on for much longer I'll be going back to Blue Top!!

winner69
18-01-2013, 07:27 AM
This 53 - 54 price is getting boring now! Slowly chipping away at the 1 mil sell order I suppose.

Maybe it is going to be boring for a while

Somebody mentioned the Bollingers tightening .... saying it signals a breakout .... up or down ..... but when the bollingers tighten for ATM the price doesn't seem to move for months and then wham it does .... most times upwards but like recently downwards

Have patience my friend .... it needs an announcement .... and whether that announcement is good or bad will be signalled prior by the price movements

Hoop
18-01-2013, 11:38 AM
Yes have patience....remember that is a virtue :):t_up:
Yes its boring....remember that is an emotion :t_down:
yes Bollinger bands are squeezed ( indicating a trend shift ....since its flat lined its can only be a trend change (up or down) not a shift in (de)/acceleration.

Black knat..I too bought in on the sell signals under the reasoning the new equity should only depreciate the price by about 7% from 66/68ish to 62ish. and the top shareholder sell down was not seen as a typical TA negative signal but a positive to increase equity and add share liquidity to trading on entering the main NZX trading board.

So a month down this track and ATM has entered into rigor mortus ...so what has happened ?
Two things come to mind...
1....Mr Market has seen this sell down as smart money exiting.....so apply the old saying...Mr Market is always right until such time it proves itself wrong.....so far Mr Market hasn't proved itself wrong.
2....You can lead a horse to water but you can't make it drink.....Plan A..."lets increase the share liquidity to make available more shares for investors to buy"...Hmmmm..the volume hasn't risen as expected...Hello!!! anyone out there????
The depth shows there are plenty of buy/sell orders there but the players are very fussy and stubborn.

The TA chart has 3 money flow indicators which can pick up any accumulation shares by stealth ....OBV Accum/dist and Twiggs ...Twiggs is the most sensitve and is showing only very slight (if any) interest in accumulation so the deduction is that there isn't much interest in ATM at this moment in time, individual and institutional traders attentions are elsewhere... Even the trading range is too narrow (52 -54) for the quick in and out traders.

When will this situation end....who knows??? Ok, there's a lot of share overhang on this market but this situation doesn't seem to be your typical time dependent "snake digesting a big meal bulge" scenario... I think ATM just needs a jump start to increase buyer activity...It could be tomorrow next month next winter or on the other side of the coin, there could be an "enough is enough" impatient ATM sell down to free up investor capital and invest it elsewhere on the rising bull market.

....Watch for TA buy/sell signals

Disc: have ATM shares.


http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/ATM17012013_zps18a3cc24.png

noodles
18-01-2013, 12:09 PM
Thanks Hoop,

Now that is the TA covered. A possible catalyst for movement is the half year results in Feb.

The full years results have analysts forecasting
Revenue 73,4 million
EBITDA 5.76 million

http://www.4-traders.com/A2-CORP-LTD-11384022/financials/

To get the next leg up in price, I think we need to see results that show that the forecasts will be exceeded for the full year.

DISC: Do not hold

JohnnyTheHorse
21-01-2013, 11:31 AM
A good catalyst for a price increase will be ATM making the NZX50 when DIL delists :p

binary
21-01-2013, 11:54 AM
A good catalyst for a price increase will be ATM making the NZX50 when DIL delists :p

Quite possible with the current speculation surrounding DIL.

JohnnyTheHorse
23-01-2013, 09:04 AM
Sellers at reasonable volume at 52 cents now. Will be very interesting to see how this one plays out.

GR8DAY
23-01-2013, 09:40 AM
......just gonna keep driftng south I think till some good news is released. I bailed at 53 and pleased I did (for now).

JohnnyTheHorse
23-01-2013, 10:01 AM
I'm gonna sit tight for now as I don't reckon it will get below 50 cents. I don't imagine a price increase will occur until the half year update however. Patience should hopefully pay off in the end.

noodles
23-01-2013, 11:27 AM
Support at 50c. I wouldn't want to be holding if that level is breached. Could quickly drop to previous support of 45c. Share price is not supported by dividend or low pe either.

JohnnyTheHorse
24-01-2013, 02:03 PM
Looks to be holding at 52 today... just. Any TA guys seeing any strong signals?

Dej
24-01-2013, 04:26 PM
Williams R and RSI suggests oversold or very close to it. But I'm just more of a fundy myself.

Im tired so this is going to sound dumb.... but what do you mean by oversold? As in now its underpriced as people have sold to much driving the price down from what it should be? Or something entirely different?

Dej
25-01-2013, 06:48 AM
A technician will be able to answer this better than I as I ascribe more heavily to fundamental analysis (using tech analysis to study entry and exit points).

Williams R and RSI are two technical analysis tools to test the level of buying strength and selling strength.

Williams R starts at -100 and finishes at zero. The higher the number (over -80), the stronger the buying/weaker the selling. Below -20 the stronger the selling.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Williams_%25R


RSI is relative strength indicator. An RSI of over 70 suggests the buying is straying into overbought territory, they might start taking profits. An RSI of lower than 30 says the selling is straying into oversold. Buyers will be likely coming back to the stock to take advantage of the lower prices.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Relative_strength_index

Ahh! Thank you oh sparky one!

Hoop
25-01-2013, 08:45 AM
Looks to be holding at 52 today... just. Any TA guys seeing any strong signals?
Hi Johnny see my post#225 on 18th Jan 2013 (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?2318-ATM-A2-Corporation-Limited/page15)....nothing much has changed since then...ATM still in rigor mortis...patience!!!

minor changes has seen a slightly more Technical weakness the 52c buyers from last week have been satisfied and some unsatisfied sellers have dropped their price down a notch ....compare the 9.00am depth table below with the one I posted last week,,there seems to be the same amount of buyers v sellers....so not much happening....

The scenario..... A group of travellers coming across the ATM body in the desert...It's big strange unfamiliar animal... is it dangerous?.. is it still alive? or is it just pretending and has you in its sights as a prey...It kinda looks like it may need rescuing??...The temption is to kick it and see if it moves..however the threat that it could all of a sudden spring up and maul you puts you off,,,so you wait,,and wait..and wait..the temption to kick it builds...We've waited 3 weeks now and the temptation is near overwhelming...some one's is going to yield and kick it.....real soon methinks.

Whats going to happen?? spring up and maul you or a friendly lick of thanks for saving me and turns into mans best friend...hmmmm

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/ATMdepth25012013_zps3969e3d7.png

JohnnyTheHorse
27-01-2013, 12:48 PM
http://www.fwi.co.uk/articles/25/01/2013/137350/m252ller-wiseman-to-increase-supply-of-a2-milk.htm

binary
27-01-2013, 01:24 PM
http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/8228299/World-asks-is-NZ-milk-safe-to-drink

Could this help ATM's push into the Asian markets. After the Melamine incident a new "healthy" alternative to Fonterra's products could be the answer.

winner69
27-01-2013, 04:12 PM
Doesn't the toxicity come from the ground ....through the grass to the milk. It's a fertiliser additive

Where do ATM graze?

winner69
27-01-2013, 04:19 PM
http://www.fwi.co.uk/articles/25/01/2013/137350/m252ller-wiseman-to-increase-supply-of-a2-milk.htm

Excuse my ignorance .....cause I have not researched such stuff ......but with all these cows in uk how much do ATM get of the pie ...... Will they own the cows .....or is there some royalty cash stream

Just interested

kizame
27-01-2013, 07:06 PM
I don't know that ATM can trademark anything but the brand they sell that milk under,if the brand they use is A2 then maybe they will have problems.It is a genetic type,so don't know how they could stop competitors from calling their milk A2.

kizame
28-01-2013, 08:00 AM
You amaze me Sparky with your research, The trademark I think refers to the actual design (graphic) as a brand and MAYBE not as the use of the letters A2 in itself,but the genetic testing,well I guess that is a whole different ball game,I would not have thought you could patent that,interesting,a company to watch I think.

GR8DAY
28-01-2013, 09:27 AM
.....yea well done Sparky however I cant see Mr Market liking this latest news re : Contaminated milk. As we all know, He (Mr Market) doesnt do a lot of research.....just reacts. Herd of sheep??

GR8DAY
28-01-2013, 10:41 AM
.....PUTTING IT LIKE THAT SPARKY, I ALMOST WANNA MOVE TO AUCKLAND .....NOT!!! (10mins to the surf and fishing grounds here in Beautiful Tauranga)

Hoop
28-01-2013, 11:13 AM
.....yea well done Sparky however I cant see Mr Market liking this latest news re : Contaminated milk. As we all know, He (Mr Market) doesnt do a lot of research.....just reacts. Herd of sheep??

What Rubbish!!


By the way.... Mr Market hasn't reacted at all to that newsbreak last Friday It seems Mr Market has so far assumed this news is media mischief .....still at 52c (no change) as I type.

Technically it seems the flat line is turning into a short term decline (bollinger bands) this weakness commenced last Monday (21st) well before the media newsbreak ...so this small decline is not the result of the news.
ATM should be watched as it is throwing up caution and more sellers are appearing...ATM is trading at this moment within its 50 -55 trading range formation...With technical weakness I expect it to test its bottom range of 50c.

Xerof
28-01-2013, 01:37 PM
Herd of sheep??

flocked if I know, but various participants have done a good job with market assurance and putting forward the science

JohnnyTheHorse
29-01-2013, 11:59 AM
Has hit 50 cents (albeit on only 1000 shares). I'm sure all holders are watching cautiously to see which way she will swing from here.

GR8DAY
29-01-2013, 12:15 PM
[QUOTE=Hoop;391550]What Rubbish!!


.........so you havnt "heard of sheep" HOOPY.........they control the share markets around the world.......sometimes referred to as TRADERS??..........I KNOW THIS 'COS SOMETIMES I BECOME SHEEP MYSELF!

51c and plummetting as I write.......better keep a sharp eye on those intersecting lines mate (technically speaking).......think of them as fences to a sheep pen! LOL

lowrolling
29-01-2013, 02:17 PM
Anyone who buys should do so in knowing that the earnings announcement is coming up in late February. The 2012 half year announcement was 21 February.

This sounds like a warning?

JohnnyTheHorse
29-01-2013, 02:18 PM
This sounds like a warning?

Quite the opposite.

Hoop
29-01-2013, 08:12 PM
[QUOTE=Hoop;391550]What Rubbish!!


.........so you havnt "heard of sheep" HOOPY.........they control the share markets around the world.......sometimes referred to as TRADERS??..........I KNOW THIS 'COS SOMETIMES I BECOME SHEEP MYSELF!

51c and plummetting as I write.......better keep a sharp eye on those intersecting lines mate (technically speaking).......think of them as fences to a sheep pen! LOL

Gr8day....I've heard of bulls bears rabbits lemmings.....Hmmm we are sheep
Tell u wot mate...I may drop a few pebbles if the price falls below 50c..as I'm still holding :mellow:
Have a good one
Hoop

Dej
29-01-2013, 08:24 PM
[QUOTE=GR8DAY;391638]

Gr8day....I've heard of bulls bears rabbits lemmings.....Hmmm we are sheep
Tell u wot mate...I may drop a few pebbles if the price falls below 50c..as I'm still holding :mellow:
Have a good one
Hoop

Yeah I'm still holding too and I'm the same as you Hoop, Im out if it bails below 50 cents.

Strange turn of events :mellow:

GR8DAY
29-01-2013, 08:24 PM
.....LOL hoop! Hey hope they come right for you m8........I really thought they might have got hit a bit harder today with this nonsense being pushed by the media (in fact I was hoping they were going to cos I wana buy back in!).......really "scratching-the-bucket" stuff I think?

Hoop
29-01-2013, 09:29 PM
[QUOTE=Hoop;391704]

Yeah I'm still holding too and I'm the same as you Hoop, Im out if it bails below 50 cents.

Strange turn of events :mellow:

More buyers accumulating at 49c, bait for the TA fish...eh?....I will hold off as long as I can if it does fall to 49...a have a manual stop to avoid getting duped by a shake out at 49c (although with the present depth this seems an unlikely action). I will watch for possible reversal of the TA indicators around the 50c mark.

The theoretical play is to buy at the bottom of trading ranges ...not a great reward and the risk seems high at the moment so this option doesn't thrill me at the moment... but what I love about investing is how rapidly situations can change and the exitement in being in and able to ride along with that change ..a bit like the excitement of surfing a wave (sigh...brings back memories of my younger days...Whale Bay :))

Dej
29-01-2013, 10:20 PM
More buyers accumulating at 49c, bait for the TA fish...eh?....I will hold off as long as I can if it does fall to 49...a have a manual stop to avoid getting duped by a shake out at 49c (although with the present depth this seems an unlikely action). I will watch for possible reversal of the TA indicators around the 50c mark.

The theoretical play is to buy at the bottom of trading ranges ...not a great reward and the risk seems high at the moment so this option doesn't thrill me at the moment... but what I love about investing is how rapidly situations can change and the exitement in being in and able to ride along with that change ..a bit like the excitement of surfing a wave (sigh...brings back memories of my younger days...Whale Bay :))

From a fundamental point of view, this company isn't any different when it was 64c. They just managed a capital raising exercise in the wrong fashion, which has resulted in the faithless profit taking (because they can - who blames them) which has driven the price lower, and lower. Now people are jumping ship as they have lost faith. I made a few phone calls today to reassure myself - but even then I have my doubts.

Milford is still holding. 2.2% in active growth fund, one of their biggest NZ holdings. They had 1.5ish% before the capital raising so even they took a hit, but they are holding. That has to be a sign in itself.

My point of view anyways. Hoop, went surfing this weekend at Whangamata, never been surfing there before but wasnt to bad! Choppy though, but still a wave or two. Get back on the board!

:)

biker
30-01-2013, 07:40 AM
..........From a fundamental point of view, this company isn't any different when it was 64c. They just managed a capital raising exercise in the wrong fashion, which has resulted in the faithless profit taking............


A cynic may say the share price should never have been up that high and was manipulated to 64c to facilitate a capital raising that allowed the founding fathers to realise some of their profits.

Disc. I acquired a substantial shareholding from the capital raising and am holding for the medium term.

JohnnyTheHorse
30-01-2013, 02:06 PM
I'm with Sparky on this one. I'm not concerned what happens in the next three weeks, it's completely irrelevant as there have been no announcements. I'm very confident that the profit update will set things straight, leaving those selling now with a red face as they sold their shares at a ~20% discount. Time will tell though!

Entrep
30-01-2013, 03:01 PM
I'm with moosie on this. Looks bad. I hold

Dej
30-01-2013, 04:22 PM
I'm with moosie on this. Looks bad. I hold

So what are you going to do? And moosie, what sort of buy in price are you looking at then?

Dej
30-01-2013, 04:39 PM
I've changed my mind. It does look terrible. Your investment is at grave risk. SELL SELL SELL. I recommend selling your holding for 45c . There will probably be buyers at that level tomorrow..... like me :-)

Ill top SPC offer of 45c and offer you 46c! (Sorry Sparks :eek2:)

winner69
30-01-2013, 06:12 PM
Today was just noise

You young guys read the bit below .... if attention span a bit low the message is Over a very short time period, one typically observes the variability of the portfolio, and not the returns. Our emotions are incapable of distinguishing between the two, and panic or disappointment can easily set in.


Instead of finding it in Talebs book and typing it out google found it for me
http://www.financialplanningsouthafrica.com/long-term-investment-strategies.html

Nassim Taleb, in his book, Fooled by Randomness, imagines a fictitious retired dentist who employs long term investment strategies and expects to earn investment returns of 15% over time on his portfolio, with an error rate (or “volatility”) of 10% a year.

From a statistical point of view, if one assumes a normal distribution for simplicity, it means that out of every 100 observations of investment performance we would expect that close to 68 of them would fall within a band of plus and minus 10% around the expected return of 15% (they would fall between 5% and 25% just over two-thirds of the time).

A 15% return with a 10% volatility per year translates into a 93% probability of success (a positive return) in any given year. Taleb points out, however, that the probability of success reduces as the time scale narrows.

For example, there would be a 67% probability of success with a one-month time frame, and only a 54% probability of success if the time frame is reduced to one day. This is common sense: in the very short term anything can happen. It takes time, or an increased number of observations, for the average long-term trend to emerge.

If the retired dentist monitored his long term investment portfolio every minute in an eight-hour day, he would on average have 241 pleasurable (positive return) observations against 239 unpleasurable (negative return) observations.

There is an old adage in the financial advice industry...

...an investor experiences the pain of a loss with twice the intensity of the pleasure of a gain!

This unfortunate dentist would probably end every day emotionally drained, stressed and uncertain about his investment strategy. The chances of a poor investment decision, based largely on emotion, are high.

If the dentist examines his long term investment portfolio every month (perhaps he gets a monthly valuation statement). As 67% of his months will be positive, he incurs only four unpleasurable observations, and eight pleasurable observations.

There is still a good chance of a poor decision - remember that it is possible that he could experience a few negative months in a row. It takes a strong investor not to panic in a situation like this.

If he could extend his time scale to one year (where the portfolio’s performance is assessed in an annual review with a financial advisor, for example) then the picture changes dramatically. He will in all likelihood experience only one unpleasant year out of every 20. The chances of making a bad investment decision, based on emotion, are now very low.

It is important to note that the overall investment returns are identical in the above examples (the same set of data has been used - it is just the time frames that have been changed).

Over a very short time period, one typically observes the variability of the portfolio, and not the returns. Our emotions are incapable of distinguishing between the two, and panic or disappointment can easily set in.

Hoop
30-01-2013, 08:51 PM
Today was just noise

You young guys read the bit below .... if attention span a bit low the message is Over a very short time period, one typically observes the variability of the portfolio, and not the returns. Our emotions are incapable of distinguishing between the two, and panic or disappointment can easily set in.


Instead of finding it in Talebs book and typing it out google found it for me
http://www.financialplanningsouthafrica.com/long-term-investment-strategies.html

Nassim Taleb, in his book, Fooled by Randomness, imagines a fictitious retired dentist who employs long term investment strategies and expects to earn investment returns of 15% over time on his portfolio, with an error rate (or “volatility”) of 10% a year. .......................

Winner...a wise post for the young fellas...I think the dentist is showing periods of cognitive dissonance behaviour......and this behavour is commonly seen on ST (every day)...there was a good discussion about it on ST some years back but bugger if I can find it on ST search..

JohnnyTheHorse
31-01-2013, 10:12 AM
Interesting battle for control forming at that crucial 50 cent mark...

Indeed. The buyers are back stacked up at 50 cents. Looks like some believe that the bottom has been reached (which I believe as well, but what would I know, I'm just a horse).

Hoop
31-01-2013, 10:17 AM
Indeed. The buyers are back stacked up at 50 cents. Looks like some believe that the bottom has been reached (which I believe as well, but what would I know, I'm just a horse).

They say a horse is more intelligent than ......a sheep....

sigh!!!.. another poster more intelligent than me

JohnnyTheHorse
31-01-2013, 02:55 PM
Following on from what Sparky posted:

"Kindred Agency and Total Media will be working in partnership with Channel 4 media and are spending close to £1m to reach their target audience across multiple platforms."

http://www.foodbev.com/news/dannii-minogue-extends-promo-of-a2-milk#.UQncZY5ptUQ

lou
02-02-2013, 05:53 PM
More news of interest for A2 watchers.

http://www.stackyard.com/news/2013/02/events/03_bcb_conference.html

I like the reference to 65,000 litres a day of A2 milk will soon be needed for the British market!

A two litre bottle of milk from Tescos online costs £1.99, so around £130,000 of A2 Milk will be sold daily, or £47.45m a year of A2 Milk at retail prices. Assume that there is 30% margin for the supermarket (A2 has higher margins than the lower margins normally associated with milk), so A2 should clock in £33m in revenue.

So is this higher than expected?

JohnnyTheHorse
05-02-2013, 03:43 PM
SSH just released, Milford have topped up to 6.76%, mainly in the Active Growth Fund. Certainly a vote of confidence given the recent SP activity.

zigzag
05-02-2013, 05:24 PM
More news of interest for A2 watchers.

http://www.stackyard.com/news/2013/02/events/03_bcb_conference.html

I like the reference to 65,000 litres a day of A2 milk will soon be needed for the British market!

A two litre bottle of milk from Tescos online costs £1.99, so around £130,000 of A2 Milk will be sold daily, or £47.45m a year of A2 Milk at retail prices. Assume that there is 30% margin for the supermarket (A2 has higher margins than the lower margins normally associated with milk), so A2 should clock in £33m in revenue.

Sounds good. But have you allowed for the fact that their UK business is a 50/50 JV with Robert Wiseman Dairies. They will get their cut after license fees to ATM.

lowrolling
05-02-2013, 05:37 PM
http://www.news.com.au/entertainment/television/dannii-lands-itv-in-trouble-with-ofcom-after-endorsing-a2-milk-on-morning-show-lorraine-appearance-by-endo/story-e6frfmyi-1226570464875

Danii doing her best to promote the brand

JohnnyTheHorse
15-02-2013, 10:40 AM
Still trading around that 50 cent mark. Profit update should hopefully be within the next week, so with any luck that will get ATM out of this rut!

Balance
15-02-2013, 12:11 PM
Still trading around that 50 cent mark. Profit update should hopefully be within the next week, so with any luck that will get ATM out of this rut!


Sp action suggests more like a downgrade?

Major shareholders selling down not a great sign!

JohnnyTheHorse
15-02-2013, 12:14 PM
Which major shareholders are you referring to?

Balance
15-02-2013, 01:26 PM
Which major shareholders are you referring to?

Please check last 3 SSH.

JohnnyTheHorse
15-02-2013, 03:12 PM
Milford have been topping up, not reducing...

Balance
15-02-2013, 03:25 PM
Milford have been topping up, not reducing...

https://www.nzx.com/companies/ATM/announcements/231013 (Sold 20m shares)

https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/168306.pdf (Sold 80m shares)

https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/168305.pdf (Sold 40m shares)

Milford topping up? Seen Ecoya share price recently?

JohnnyTheHorse
15-02-2013, 03:35 PM
I see where you are coming from, however you must remember that ATM has been a multi-bagger for them, so it makes sense to sell a good portion of their shares to profit take and lower their risk exposure. Or it could be like you are saying, that they think it has peaked and want to get out. I have no idea which is true. From my research I am confident in the growth of this stock however. I could be right or could be wrong, all will be revealed very soon!

Balance
15-02-2013, 04:32 PM
I see where you are coming from, however you must remember that ATM has been a multi-bagger for them, so it makes sense to sell a good portion of their shares to profit take and lower their risk exposure. Or it could be like you are saying, that they think it has peaked and want to get out. I have no idea which is true. From my research I am confident in the growth of this stock however. I could be right or could be wrong, all will be revealed very soon!

The stock now has institutional shareholders and followers. Sp action going to be more reflective of underlying operational performance as these institutions follow the company very closely.

Until the placement, ATM moved big %tages on 10,000 shares!

Dej
19-02-2013, 01:06 PM
$1.3ish mil trade today - pocket change ;)

Dej
19-02-2013, 01:14 PM
Milford again per chance? Interesting...

Would say so - they do seem to like the look of A2 - either that or maybe a new significant holder?

lou
19-02-2013, 04:46 PM
When do ATM update there earnings?

Dej
21-02-2013, 08:38 AM
ATM


21/02/2013 08:30


HALFYR





REL: 0830 HRS A2 Corporation Limited





HALFYR: ATM: Announcement of Half Year Result





The A2 Corporation Limited result for the six months ended 31 December 2012


is expected to be released to NZSX on Wednesday 27 February 2013


End CA:00233211 For:ATM Type:HALFYR Time:2013-02-21 08:30:38

JohnnyTheHorse
21-02-2013, 03:04 PM
The end of this rut is in sight! Well, I hope so anyway...

ratkin
25-02-2013, 01:09 PM
Am finding it tough to access info on this company.
How exactly does the company make money from the british sales? and how is a2 uk different from a2 nz

Hoop
25-02-2013, 08:13 PM
The depth is showing some promise.
there were about 2 million shares still looking for a home the last few weeks ....it has been a slow distributional process but progress is being slowly made .... today this number has shrunk to 1.1 million (asks 51c-54c). What will Wednesdays result do to this number.....?
Strong support at 50C but being only two buyers this could be an illusion.











Bids






Quantity
No.
Price


761,278https://www.directbroking.co.nz/DirectTrade/images/spacer.gif
2
50


34,000https://www.directbroking.co.nz/DirectTrade/images/depth_before.gif
3
49


115,000https://www.directbroking.co.nz/DirectTrade/images/depth_before.gif
2
48


22,000https://www.directbroking.co.nz/DirectTrade/images/depth_before.gif
1
45







Asks






Price
No.
Quantity


51
1
136,036https://www.directbroking.co.nz/DirectTrade/images/spacer.gif


52
5
385,000https://www.directbroking.co.nz/DirectTrade/images/depth_before.gif


53
5
388,549https://www.directbroking.co.nz/DirectTrade/images/depth_before.gif


54
4
207,500https://www.directbroking.co.nz/DirectTrade/images/depth_before.gif


59
1
20,000https://www.directbroking.co.nz/DirectTrade/images/depth_before.gif


60
2
27,600https://www.directbroking.co.nz/DirectTrade/images/depth_before.gif


70
2
15,000https://www.directbroking.co.nz/DirectTrade/images/depth_before.gif







Recent Trades






Price
Volume
Time
Cond


51
1,250,000
17:04
SP


51
63,964
17:00



51
36,036
17:00



51
25,000
17:00



50
7,400
16:37
SP


50
38,722
15:54



50
100,000
15:54



50
8,000
15:54



50
1,200
15:54



50
6,500
15:54



50
25,000
15:54



50
250,000
15:54



50
500
15:54



50
15,000
15:54



50
2,000
15:54






















https://www.directbroking.co.nz/DirectTrade/images/spacer.gif
https://www.directbroking.co.nz/DirectTrade/images/spacer.gif

JohnnyTheHorse
25-02-2013, 08:42 PM
There have certainly been some big trades in the last week or so. Each time the sellers at 51 are almost all gone, a whole bunch of new sellers appear there. I'm confident that Wednesday will break this stagnation and send the SP on an upward or downward trend. Aus sales look as strong as ever, the UK seems to be ticking along nicely and I think the NZ market has picked up so I expect a definite upward trend after this announcement. I am a holder though, so of course I would think that ;)

Dej
25-02-2013, 09:27 PM
There have certainly been some big trades in the last week or so. Each time the sellers at 51 are almost all gone, a whole bunch of new sellers appear there. I'm confident that Wednesday will break this stagnation and send the SP on an upward or downward trend. Aus sales look as strong as ever, the UK seems to be ticking along nicely and I think the NZ market has picked up so I expect a definite upward trend after this announcement. I am a holder though, so of course I would think that ;)

EXACTLY :t_up: only problem is is the market is mostly based on expectations - so will the announcement meet/surpass/miss the markets expectations!

ratkin
26-02-2013, 04:38 AM
Ratkin

A2 Milk in Britain is different from A2 Milk in NZ because it comes from British cows, not kiwi cows.

It does however, use the same science in breed/cow selection that A2 Corporation use in NZ/Australia. (a patented process, no less).

Here are a selection of useful recent articles about A2 in Britain which might help you.



Thanks for the info , whenever i try to find out more about the company i hear lots about how A2 milk is relly healthy etc , and how Danny Minogue loves it . What i struggle to find info on is how the company will make money from it.

Am i right in thinking they will make their money from buying the milk from the A2 producing farmers and then selling the milk on to the supermarkets at a markup? Do they own any herds themselves?
Or will they make money by allowing others to do all the dirty work and just skim a little off the top for inventing the milk?

Looking at the market depth yesterday , it was heavily populated by sellers, might mean nothing but with result out tomorrow would of expected to see a little upward movement in the price by now

I made a flying visit to the UK last week ,and was very suprised to see the milk being advertised on TV at primetime , very professional looking ad, sparked up my interest in the company

JohnnyTheHorse
26-02-2013, 07:32 PM
Cracked through the sellers at 51 cents and finished on 52 cents with good volume. The mountain of sellers is much smaller now. Lets hope the profit update tomorrow meets or exceeds market expectations, otherwise I suspect there will be blood shed!

Dej
27-02-2013, 07:52 AM
For those who want the full announcement:

A2 Corporation growth continues ahead of plan8:43am, 27 Feb 2013 | HALFYR
Highlights
o Strong growth in sales, up 57% on the corresponding prior period
o Strategic review completed and implementation now in progress
o Increased market share in Australia to 6.9% by value in grocery
o UK fresh milk launch underway from October 2012
o Distribution agreement entered into for sale of infant formula into China
o Successful capital raising and move to the NZX main board
o On track to deliver the growth outlined as part of the equity raising
Revenues grew strongly over the corresponding half as a function of continuing growth in a2(TM) brand fresh milk in the Australian market. The a2(TM) brand remains the fastest growing dairy brand in grocery in Australia. Significant progress was also made in the priority strategic initiatives in expanding the a2(TM) brand into a new market in the United Kingdom and finalizing the platform for infant formula into China.
Managing Director Geoffrey Babidge said "the standout performance of the Australian business and its strong growth prospects provide the increasing momentum and earnings to support our current new market growth initiatives. The recently completed Strategic Review and equity raising provides a comprehensive roadmap and the capital to accelerate the implementation of the Company's strategic plan".
Financial performance
The unaudited group profit for the 6 months ended 31 December 2012 was $554,000 including EBITDA of $3,459,000, 54% over the corresponding prior period, in part offset by the Company's share of UK establishment costs and the final component of strategic review costs.
The result included the following key items:
o Sales of $44,281,000, representing an increase of 57% over the corresponding prior period;
o EBITDA before share of associate earnings and non- recurring items of $3,459,000 compared to the corresponding prior period of $2,241,000;
o Share of costs associated with A2 Milk (UK) Limited joint venture of $1,480,000;
o Non recurring costs associated with a Group Strategic Review of $755,000.
The strong momentum of the Australian business is ahead of the growth outlined as part of the recent equity raising and remains on track to achieve its full year 2013 EBITDA forecast of $11.2 million before intercompany charges.
Cash on hand at 31 December 2012 was $21,500,000. The movement over the period primarily reflected operating cash flows in Australia, proceeds from capital raisings and further investment in our UK joint venture.
Strategic Review
A comprehensive strategic review of the Company (commenced in April 2012) was completed and announced to the market in October 2012. The outcome of the review is that the Company will dedicate additional resources to initiatives previously announced and prioritise opportunities identified during the review including:
o Further developing the strong suite of IP and the uniqueness of a2(TM) brand dairy products;
o Further growing the Australian and New Zealand fresh milk businesses;
o Accelerating investment in the UK fresh milk market;
o Accelerating investment in the China infant formula market;
o Entering new international markets in particular in North America and markets in Europe;
o Entering new categories with UHT milk and Yogurt a priority.
Operational Review
Australasia
a2 (TM) sales in Australia continued to show strong growth and represented an increase on the corresponding prior period of 57%. Ongoing investment in marketing and communication contributed to the growth of sales and increased brand recognition. In particular the "thank-you a2" media campaign is proving effective in creating awareness in the A2 proposition and together with PR, health care professional activities and social media engagement is driving new consumer trial. Further gains in distribution also aided sales. We estimate the market share of a2 (TM) brand fresh milk by value in the grocery channel in December 2012 to approximate 6.9%.
The Company's new milk processing facility in south west Sydney performed well with volumes ahead of plan and improved efficiencies when compared to the second half of last year. We commenced a project to improve supply chain efficiencies in consequence of volumes continuing ahead of plan. The Company continues to work closely with its contract processors and negotiated extended arrangements with two contractors during the period.
The Company continued to assess options to further develop the a2 (TM) brand fresh milk within New Zealand in conjunction with the existing licensee.
United Kingdom and Ireland
In November 2011, the Company established a sales and marketing joint venture in the UK and Ireland with the leading fresh milk dairy company, Robert Wiseman Dairies (RWD), now a wholly owned subsidiary of Unternehmensgruppe Theo Muller Group.
During the current half year the JV completed its establishment phase and launched a2(TM) brand fresh milk into the retail trade in Britain. The joint venture now comprises a dedicated sales and marketing management team near London, with procurement, processing, distribution and administration services provided by RWD. The business has recruited an enthusiastic dairy farmer supplier base with capability to build significant A2 milk volumes over time.
The product launch commenced with 3 retailer groups with distribution building across approximately 700 retail outlets from October 2012. The launch was initially supported by a public relations and print media campaign and is being followed by a television advertising campaign which commenced from end January 2013. The communication strategies have been tailored to meet the requirements of the various UK regulatory authorities. As part of the launch the business has engaged two profile celebrities with particular appeal to the target market: Dannii Minogue, herself a convert to the digestive benefits of a2(TM) brand milk and Dr Hilary Jones, a well-known and respected health care professional
As advised during the strategic review, the launch in the UK is expected to follow the approach in Australia - a slow build based on progressively raising consumer's awareness of the unique product attributes driven by PR, consumer marketing and engagement with health care professionals and through broadening distribution. Our sales are growing from a small base and the focus is on building rate of sale within existing distribution and achieving retailer support to further broaden distribution.
Infant formula into China
The Company continued to progress its strategy to introduce a2(TM) brand infant formula into China. In October 2012, the company announced the appointment of China State Farm (CSF) as the exclusive distributor of a2(TM) brand infant formula for Greater China. As part of the agreement, A2C and CSF established a joint marketing structure to support the development and implementation of marketing activities within the territory. Following the appointment of CSF and given the strategic supply agreement with Synlait Milk Limited, A2C now has a complete end-to-end New Zealand sourced supply chain for China.
To support this major growth initiative, a new business unit, A2 Infant Nutrition has been established with a dedicated management team focused on business development, supply chain and marketing functions together with an in-market manager based in Shanghai. This infrastructure will also support development of additional opportunities such as UHT milk into China and the launch of infant formula in other markets. Sales to CSF are planned to commence this financial year.
Equity raising and move to NZX main board
Following A2C's strategic review, in December 2012, the Company initiated an equity raising to increase liquidity and provide additional funding, applied to move from the NZX alternative market to the NZX main board and the Company's three largest shareholders partially sold down their shareholdings.
The company was very pleased with the outcome of this process with fresh equity of $20 million being raised at a price of $0.50 per share and approval obtained to move to the NZX main board. The number of shareholders increased to 2,151 at 31 December 2012. Receipts associated with the exercise of partly paid shares also contributed a further $693,000 to cash flow during the half year.

For further information contact:
Geoffrey Babidge
Managing Director
A2 Corporation Limited
+61 2 9697 7008

JohnnyTheHorse
27-02-2013, 08:03 AM
Results sound fantastic. Of particular interest to me is the entry into new market categories (UHT and yogurt) and the launch of infant powder into China. I envisage that the infant powder could become absolutely massive in China. I guess the only negative in the update is that they were pleased with the outcome of the capital raising - I'm sure we can now put that behind us though ;)

Dej
27-02-2013, 08:06 AM
Results sound fantastic. Of particular interest to me is the entry into new market categories (UHT and yogurt) and the launch of infant powder into China. I envisage that the infant powder could become absolutely massive in China....

'Sales to CSF are planned to commence this financial year'

This will probably be the next big announcement to come out this year I would say.

Hoop
27-02-2013, 08:45 AM
Cracked through the sellers at 51 cents and finished on 52 cents with good volume. The mountain of sellers is much smaller now. Lets hope the profit update tomorrow meets or exceeds market expectations, otherwise I suspect there will be blood shed!

Mr Market seems happy today..... the mountain of sellers nearly all gone..This huge resistance at 51-54 has weakened considerably these last 2 weeks so there's potential for a breakout
Disc Hold





Bids






Quantity
No.
Price


30,000https://www.directbroking.co.nz/DirectTrade/images/spacer.gif
2
54


205,558https://www.directbroking.co.nz/DirectTrade/images/depth_before.gif
5
53


11,000https://www.directbroking.co.nz/DirectTrade/images/depth_before.gif
2
52


150,242https://www.directbroking.co.nz/DirectTrade/images/depth_before.gif
2
51


754,278https://www.directbroking.co.nz/DirectTrade/images/depth_before.gif
3
50


44,142https://www.directbroking.co.nz/DirectTrade/images/depth_before.gif
4
49


115,000https://www.directbroking.co.nz/DirectTrade/images/depth_before.gif
2
48






Asks






Price
No.
Quantity


52
2
160,000https://www.directbroking.co.nz/DirectTrade/images/spacer.gif


53
6
398,549https://www.directbroking.co.nz/DirectTrade/images/depth_before.gif


54
3
130,000https://www.directbroking.co.nz/DirectTrade/images/depth_before.gif


60
3
37,600https://www.directbroking.co.nz/DirectTrade/images/depth_before.gif

JohnnyTheHorse
27-02-2013, 09:09 AM
Only 427,000 at 54 cents left now. We have almost broken through!

Dej
27-02-2013, 09:15 AM
Only 427,000 at 54 cents left now. We have almost broken through!

Hope it does happen, but 400,000 shares is quite a bit, and people will start profit taking when it gets higher me thinks... but then again... if it does... clear sailing till 60 or 70 :t_up:

JohnnyTheHorse
27-02-2013, 09:22 AM
'Sales to CSF are planned to commence this financial year'

This will probably be the next big announcement to come out this year I would say.

Just looked in the presentation released, says sales will commence from May 2013. The infant powder will use a2 Milk from New Zealand cows, a combination which I think the Chinese wont be able to resist :p

ratkin
27-02-2013, 09:54 AM
In at 53cent punt money only

It the UK prime time ad that impressed me , but i am rather gullible :-)


Whoi is the big seller? hope he not the smart one in the room

gv1
27-02-2013, 10:36 AM
Put at 53c but not moving.

Dej
27-02-2013, 12:12 PM
Me thinks its all the people that were allowed to hop in on the capital raising who didnt jump ship when it went low and who didnt sell at 55cents selling now after they realised they missed the quick 10%, and just taking what they can after a good announcement...

Agree, such a successful capital raising :sleep:

JohnnyTheHorse
27-02-2013, 04:06 PM
Me thinks its all the people that were allowed to hop in on the capital raising who didnt jump ship when it went low and who didnt sell at 55cents selling now after they realised they missed the quick 10%, and just taking what they can after a good announcement...


That's my theory as well. There wasn't the jump today that I was expecting. Progress has been made though, I imagine we will be seeing 60 cents in the not too distant future. Todays report has reaffirmed my bullish nature about this stock!

JohnnyTheHorse
27-02-2013, 07:20 PM
The Bollinger bands have been getting extremely narrow and today it broke through the upper band. If the 54 cent resistance is broken then I'd be confident in saying that this is the beginning of a strong uptrend. I guess we will find out in the next few days (or weeks).

Dej
28-02-2013, 03:07 PM
Im going to go for 'weeks' - Pretty stubborn 54cent wall - need all the none believers to jump ship already!!

JohnnyTheHorse
28-02-2013, 04:16 PM
Surely it would be in Milford's interest to snap up half a million and break that resistance :p. Ah well, we may just have to be a bit more patient.

Dej
28-02-2013, 04:36 PM
Surely it would be in Milford's interest to snap up half a million and break that resistance :p. Ah well, we may just have to be a bit more patient.

Ive been patient enough with the cr*p capital raising :p

Hoop
28-02-2013, 09:51 PM
Its been a waiting game since the capital raising and more available shares to aid trading liquidity ...Finally Buy signals have appeared ....so why sell now??....

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/ATM27022013.png

Dej
01-03-2013, 07:31 AM
Some interesting charts you got there Hoop, thanks.

Yes, looks like a tight wedge getting for that breakout. Good news is already there, just need a breakthrough and more money pouring in.

Simple...(?)

Wouldnt it be a lovely start to the weekend if we had a big buyer come in today and take out that 54 cent offer!

iceman
01-03-2013, 01:31 PM
Well it would certainly make some of you ease back a bit for the weekend wouldn't it! Who knows, a Moose could come and knock that wall down at anytime. They do graze with cows at times...

The Moose has been grazing !! All the 54c gone just like that :)

JohnnyTheHorse
01-03-2013, 01:38 PM
The Moose has been grazing !! All the 54c gone just like that :)

Woohoo! Surely only a matter of time now before the resistance is broken and ATM is set free.

JohnnyTheHorse
01-03-2013, 04:48 PM
So, did ya jump back in today moosie?

Dej
01-03-2013, 05:41 PM
Nothing till 60 :eek2:

JohnnyTheHorse
01-03-2013, 06:02 PM
Nothing till 60 :eek2:

Fantastic, huh? The train is leaving the station, there may just be enough time to jump aboard if you haven't already!

Focussing on the sales growth of a2, I believe that the infant formula will become massive in Asia (to be launched in May/June). From the research I've done, many Chinese mothers will ONLY buy infant powder from New Zealand as it is seen as pure and trusted (although this has been somewhat tainted over recent scandals). The Chinese also love to purchase anything that claims to be a health product or natural remedy (i.e. a2 Milk). Chinese mothers will want only the best for their babies. This means a2 infant formula will have a massive selling point/point of difference over the current "best" infant formula (formula from NZ) and will most definitely appeal to their target market.

The chinese infant formula market is worth around US$6 billion per year, with an impressive 12% growth p.a. If a2 can capture even 1% of this market, that's US$60 million in sales per year. Capture 10% and that's US$600 million in sales per year.

iceman
05-03-2013, 12:25 PM
Some interestingly big parcels changing hands in the last hour !

JohnnyTheHorse
05-03-2013, 12:37 PM
10.5M now... Will be interesting to see who it is. Would be a good sign if Milford is accumulating even more.

Dej
05-03-2013, 12:45 PM
10.5M now... Will be interesting to see who it is. Would be a good sign if Milford is accumulating even more.

You also have to ask yourself who is selling the parcels...

JohnnyTheHorse
05-03-2013, 12:46 PM
You also have to ask yourself who is selling the parcels...

Don't you worry, that certainly crossed my mind. Looks like they are buying on market now.

Huskeez
05-03-2013, 12:52 PM
Looks to me like this might be the catalyst that sends the SP back towards the 60 mark! Interesting tactic too aye; buy 10mill+ shares off market and buy an additional 600,000 on the market to give the SP a bit of a boost. Might not work but it looks like it will!Sh!t just got real

Huskeez
05-03-2013, 01:18 PM
LOL, me too (although I shouldn't be on here at all)!!! :lol::eek:Hehehe here we go vol@ 14m, sp@ .56c 1.8m bids 650k asks ... i like where this is heading... im one of the lone sellers waiting to get steam rolled!

Dej
05-03-2013, 01:28 PM
LOL, me too (although I shouldn't be on here at all)!!! :lol::eek:

You got us all! NSFW :eek2:

ratkin
06-03-2013, 10:13 AM
Bought into this pant-wetters club. Looking good on the depth side ;)


This thread feels horribly like hotcopper, no information on the company , just GO ATM GO.
Hopefully the contagion can be contained