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robbo
09-06-2005, 04:44 PM
Talent 2--TWO

Beginning To take a position in this Human Resources Outsource Operation---that are expanding into Malaysia and China...

--Critical Plusses with Talent 2 (TWO) for mine are:

(1) Owners/Directors are Simply World Class-- Geoff Morgan and Andrew Banks...with immnensely successful 'hands on' Track Record...in This industry over the last 16 years ....

(2) They (TWO) are focusing on Payroll Solutions, Contracted Hire, Temps, and Outsourced Human Resources and not Exec Recruitment...--as their Mainstay---this is critical for where HRM is NOW globally trending ....IMO....

(3) Figures NOW for (TWO) are now looking quite Okay//Good and are on the Improve...and Debt postion is very manageable

(4) Last 2 quarters for (TWO) was earnings and Cash flow Positive...

(5) Moving nicely now into the burgeoning Asian market; with existing successful Asian HR firm Buy Outs---so will get instant Improved Earnings, using the exisitng successful HRM Models for Asian culture....and improving them incrementally....[^]

Naturally is NOT warranted advice; but stricly IMO...regards (TWO) is as follows:

My Thoughts: One Should Buy Talent 2 (TWO).... especially tommorrow, and on the dips---(...if there are any...)....for a Medium Term ---either at least 4 month, --- or 8-9 month--(my situation)---Investment ... but stress that is ONLY my own personal view...

Kind Regards,

Robbo :)

robbo
28-10-2005, 05:45 PM
Talent 2

Takebn a while to resolve itself...

But I feel that Talent 2 might be getting ready for a run...

and that, IMO will be a LONG RUN.....

Also note that the new IR laws will help them very muchly....

Quite Bulllish now on Talent 2....

Regards,

Robbo

robbo
07-11-2005, 12:07 PM
TWO Talent 2

The new work Industrial Relations Laws (IR) now being pushded through Parliament are going to seriously assit this Company.

Remember that TWO -- Talent TWO are >> not << primarilly a Recruitment Co.

Instead they are a Payroll and HR outsource Company doing the entire suite of outsourced HR....

Very scaleable and click click type Business Model that will leverage with the new Flexibility and Choice IR model being now introduced into Australia.


And they are run by Geoff Morgan and Andrew Banks -- two of the smaretest guys in the HR global business, with a very proven record.(ie: Morgan & Banks whihc went to a market cap of over a billion dollars nine years ago... before being sold to the Yanks...)

I now rate TWO as a Buy... but that is only my view, and only for those with a time line of at least more than a a few days!!

Regards,

Robbo :)

robbo
08-02-2006, 07:48 PM
Talent 2 ( TWO )

- Share Price for TWO was up 9.45% today following share price rise yesterday as well on Increased Volumes...


- Nice new Indian acquisition announced today, adds India, China, Malaysia to Aussie operations....

-EBITA Reported today up 64%

-Sales Revenue Reported today up 63%

-Net Adjusted Profits were also up by 41%

-Cash flows look excellent, imo, also debt levels are negligible and reducing..... free cash flow also Strong and improving...

-Talent Two (TWO) is obviously a True success story Global company now....

Disc Own and Hold and like (TWO) very much.

Kindest Regards,

Robbo

Lizard
10-03-2006, 12:54 PM
Have been watching these for a while. Seemed a bit exxy, but like the business and growth potential. Management record adds some cred. Cashflow looks in hand now, and finally sp starting to look as though it may be heading in a healthy direction. Possible return of capital indicated, though can't see it being more than 10cps.

Hoping for positive sentiment driven by expected rapid growth in EBITDA and cashflow.

Have bought a few.

robbo
10-03-2006, 02:58 PM
TWO Talent 2

Hi Lizzard :););)

Feel personally, ....and imo only ...(not advice etc)-- that you ought to consider balancing this "Human Resource/Salary Packaging/ HRM Outourcing Nice with Mc Millan Shakespeare (MMS) as well maybe??

Also look at the financial results of MMS alongside TWO, which are .... imo.....(MMS that is, ) even better than TWO's... which by the way I also obviously do like(and Hold) as well....

-So both these TWO are goood, but MMS is worth imo putting "in the mix"..

- On one final note, Think that (MMS) mgt will deal with the illiquidty before too long .... at a guess, by the way.... also....

Just something to "consider" that is all, and only imo.

Kindest Regards,

Robbo:)

Lizard
10-03-2006, 03:55 PM
Thanks Robbo, will take a look at MMS.

Meanwhile, good volume and price through TWO so far today... Hopeful this is the beginning of a very long run... ;)

Only thing on the wish list would be a dividend policy...

Cheers,
Liz

robbo
10-03-2006, 04:47 PM
Hi Lizzard,

"A Dividend Policy ?".... [?]

Good observation, imo, Lizzard.

From memory, .... yes,. MMS does put a tick in that div. box. :)

And even more importantly for me,as far as KPI's go, the Return on Capital is improving Year on Year, while despite TWO's overall good results, the ROE, went down on the just passed last Year on Year comparison.....vis a vis.... for this last Interim reported period.

Just some food for thought, :)

So then, You ensure that you manage to have a lovely weekend in New Zealand..... Lizzard. BTW are you a South Islander, or North Islander.... Lizzard .....?

Kinest Regards,

Robbo :)

Lizard
23-03-2006, 04:43 PM
Return of capital announcement out...hmm.

Was thinking maybe 7 - 10cps, but turns out 5cps - why bother?

3cps capital repayment and 2cps special dividend... Why not a 2cps interim dividend and save another couple of cents for a final divi? Do they not think cashflows are that sustainable?

Special divs and capital repayments don't add alot to sentiment, so IMO are a bit of a waste of cash...but the share price seems to have changed trend for now and some good volume going through, so lets hope they get the cashflows to enable them to talk "dividend policy" by next year...:)

Lizard
21-07-2006, 04:28 PM
Some life entering the TWO share price - now up to $1.44 on good volume today, although has been somewhat volatile since my buy in around $1.20 in March.

While this isn't on my list of "cheap" shares, it is on my list of "potential to grow alot fast and in an uptrend" shares... not easy to value yet, so it's a punt on some cheap-to-fund growth.

tsb
23-07-2006, 08:49 AM
Was this the Talent payroll that the Min of Education in NZ was strong on - but recentley said that they may not proceed?

Lizard
23-07-2006, 04:40 PM
Thanks for that tsb. Sounds like the same company. Was not aware of that - any idea why the problem?

tsb
23-07-2006, 06:05 PM
This was last years press release
5 June 2005


Media Release

The Ministry of Education has been given the green light to proceed with the replacement of the current schools' payroll system - responsible for the fortnightly payment of up to 83,000 employees in the compulsory education sector.

"Our goal is to maintain and improve the payroll services to schools," says Ministry of Education senior manager, Kevin Wilson.

"The new system will increase the level of management information available to schools. That will enable schools to plan and manage their resources better."

"It will provide direct access to payroll information which will help schools deal with day-to-day payroll actions or enquiries. It will enhance their planning and management activities for leave, payments, and staffing levels."

The Government has approved the Ministry entering into contract negotiations with Synergy International Ltd to supply the new system. Synergy International Ltd, a current supplier of IT services to the Ministry, supported by its subcontractor Talent2, was selected by tender process.

Talent2's software and consulting solutions have been used in over 200 organisations throughout Australia and New Zealand. This includes 23 universities and three Australian state education departments. Recently, Talent2 successfully implemented a "whole of government" solution for 75,000 employees in Papua New Guinea.

The proposed change of system will provide a low risk, efficiently operated, accurate and reliable school payroll operation. There will be a staged implementation over 2007 and 2008. By 2008, school administrators will be able to easily access information that is vital to their day-to-day payroll and related management activities. Administrators could also opt to enter their own payroll transactions online with the payroll system. Centralised transaction services provided by Education Service Centres will still continue for schools who wish to use them.

The Ministry has extended its contract with Datacom Employer Services to provide ongoing payroll services during the transition and implementation of the new payroll system. The Ministry sees Datacom's expanded role as critical to the new system's success.

For further information contact:
Jenny Bridgen
Senior Media Adviser (acting)
Ministry of Education
Phone: 0-4-463 8011
Mobile: 0-27-244 2030

www.minedu.govt.nz

The one a week or two aga stating that it "may" not go ahead is not on the MOE press release site and I havent been able to reteave it from the Dominion newspaper (stuff.co.nz)

It would mean that in all proberbility the MOE would have to stay with Datacom

tsb
23-07-2006, 06:16 PM
Ahhhhh - found it


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Education Ministry rethinks payroll plans
26 June 2006
By TOM PULLAR-STRECKER

The Education Ministry is considering binning a multimillion-dollar proposal to replace its payroll system with software supplied by Wellington firm Synergy and Australian company Talent2.

The ministry announced in June last year that it had been given the green light to proceed with the replacement of its payroll system, Datapay, which was built by Datacom in 1997 at a cost of $8.1 million.

Talent2 announced in March last year that it expected the deal could be worth more than A$10 million to the company over five years, if finalised.

Education Ministry spokesman Vince Cholewa says the "landscape has changed" since last year and the ministry may instead upgrade its existing software.

He says that at the time a decision was made to change systems, Datapay's Oracle database and VMS operating system were no longer supported by vendors. This "represented a high risk to the Government", he says.

Those concerns have been resolved now that support for Oracle and VMS has been extended and Mr Cholewa says the option of the Education Ministry upgrading Datapay has been revived.

The ministry expects to make a decision on which way to go by September. If it decides to press ahead with Talent2's Alesco payroll package, the new software could still be in place by July 2008, he says.

Datapay is responsible for paying 83,000 staff at 2600 schools and is believed to be the largest payroll system in Australasia, but it still relies on records that have to be updated manually.

Talent2 chief executive Mark Brayan took the rethink on the chin.

"Ultimately, our objective is to deliver the best outcome for the ministry, teachers and the New Zealand taxpayer and this thorough process is achieving that."

However, he says there would be benefits in the Education Ministry adopting Talent2's software.

"Aside from being a rules-based system that automates, lowers costs and reduces errors, it is a fully Web-based system that can bring information to the schools and ultimately to teachers. That information can go beyond payroll information and it can be used to do things like performance management online."

Mr Cholewa says the Education Ministry doesn't plan to give teachers access to its new or upgraded payroll system so they could check their pay, update their details and apply for leave online - though Talent2's software is capable of allowing this.

However, he says the ministry is considering future enhancements that could help support "teacher performance management and professional development".

"When online access is provided it will be for school principals and administrators to input payroll data and extract HR and payroll information."

Lizard
23-07-2006, 06:22 PM
Thanks tsb. Much appreciated.:)

Lizard
28-07-2006, 02:35 PM
Went ex-3cps dividend and has still managed to steadily move up to $1.50 this week. Not bad in a dull week on the ASX.

Lizard
10-08-2006, 03:17 PM
Full year NPAT of $3.7m came in very close to my expectation of $3.6m. Market seemed a little disappointed, initially knocking it back from the $1.60 it had run up to. There is a large amortisation cost in the result from recent acquisitions. Cashflows are very strong and with the focus looking forward on organic growth (opportunistic acquisitions only), the NPAT should increase rapidly from here. Cashflows suggest a move to an ongoing dividend stream must be considered likely. Although this has outstripped my current valuation of $1.45, it seems to be a well run business which could surprise to the upside.

Still seeking a tax ruling for a further 3cps return of capital.

robbo
11-08-2006, 12:27 PM
Talent Two (TWO)

Agree totally with all your excellent points Liz....

Good post.

The market seemingly understands what "amotirization" means,and have not misunderstood the result, which I suspected/feared they may do....

As you also, possibly know now, my other fave that is "sort of"-- or at least related to this (HRM: Human Resource Management) vital personnel sector (ie: Salary Packaging) ....

is: Mc Millan Shakespeare (MMS)

Kindest Regards,

Robbo :)

Lizard
03-11-2006, 03:16 PM
TWO looks to be back from lunch break and ready to continue on up from $1.70.

Have another 3cps special div/capital return in the bag as well since ex-date of 26 October.

These are in my lazy, long term portfolio. I think the chances of getting my targetted 25% pa off these are getting lower at this price. But they seem like a fairly low risk play for a while longer, with only one direction likely for NPAT over the next few years.

robbo
03-11-2006, 03:19 PM
TWO (Talent2)

Hi Liz,

Do you get the tax break....re the recent tax ruling--??-- since you are in New Zealand...??-- Do Hope so....

And secondly--why Liz, do you reckon the 25% cap gains... for TWO-- might be a bit hard to come by...? Can't see a catalyst...?

Kind Regards,

Robbo :)

Lizard
03-11-2006, 03:25 PM
I think the business model is robust and that NPAT will certainly grow very fast from here Robbo. I just think that a fair bit of that growth is already priced in. Of course, it's very early days to try and value TWO, so my opinion may change when I have a few more results to go on.

Not sure about the tax side from NZ Robbo. I will have to look at how it's worded precisely. Capital return should be better than dividend for us here, but the impact for me will be fairly small as a % of my tax bill!

Lizard
01-02-2007, 09:55 PM
Share price is on another roll and now $2.10. Might be going to prove me wrong in my Nov comment about lower chance of having 25% cap gain left in it for this year. I'm looking forward to seeing what half year results bring.

Lizard
12-02-2007, 05:52 PM
Closed at $2.50 after reporting a 75% increase in HY NPAT.

Actually, I thought this kind of growth was already priced in, but who am I to complain? The Trend is your Friend.... at least for a while longer. And particularly on a business like this which ain't going backwards anytime soon.

robbo
12-02-2007, 06:17 PM
Talent 2-- TWO--

Looks like s/price--happy to partly move; to a forward looking # growthish stock--PE....

What do you make the TWO-- PE on a historical Liz??

Regards,

Robbo:)

Lizard
12-02-2007, 08:52 PM
Hi Robbo,

TWO - significant amortisation in this one, so I'm working historical P/E of 54 on a massaged NPATA of about $5.6m for June 06 year. (Also approx equivalent to free cashflow).

Forward P/E, I'm guessing equivalent NPATA of $8.2m, so forward P/E around 37.

But all that is somewhat meaningless as TWO will continue to grow fast. It's just a matter of how fast for how long. From a financial perspective, the balance sheet and the return on capital can support alot of organic growth - and on that basis, I could justify them as a buy up to $3.30.

Would appreciate your thoughts though - my fundamental analysis gets a bit stretched on growth stocks once they cease to also be value stocks. I don't have alot of "what happens next" experience to apply here.

robbo
13-02-2007, 12:57 PM
Hi Liz,

Working on this as we === speak.....Back in 48 hrs with my thoughts.....

Regards,

Robbo



quote:Originally posted by Lizard

Hi Robbo,

TWO - significant amortisation in this one, so I'm working historical P/E of 54 on a massaged NPATA of about $5.6m for June 06 year. (Also approx equivalent to free cashflow).

Forward P/E, I'm guessing equivalent NPATA of $8.2m, so forward P/E around 37.

But all that is somewhat meaningless as TWO will continue to grow fast. It's just a matter of how fast for how long. From a financial perspective, the balance sheet and the return on capital can support alot of organic growth - and on that basis, I could justify them as a buy up to $3.30.

Would appreciate your thoughts though - my fundamental analysis gets a bit stretched on growth stocks once they cease to also be value stocks. I don't have alot of "what happens next" experience to apply here.
:)

:):)

Lizard
13-02-2007, 01:09 PM
In the meantime, I reckon will come back to consolidate around $2.10 over the next few days/weeks. Looks like it's already in the process of doing this...

Lizard
13-08-2007, 05:32 PM
Now $3.06 and holding up well during recent market weakness.

Must be one of the most "expensive" shares I own, and not alot of clarity around what results to expect, so I am a little nervous about holding this in the current market. But confidence in the management is keeping me in for now.

Lizard
13-08-2007, 05:41 PM
Oops, just realised the FY report came out while I was writing that last post! Will write more after a closer look!

Lizard
13-08-2007, 06:03 PM
Result of NPAT $6.8m. EPS is up 72% from 3.3cps to 5.7cps. That brings the P/E down from an absurdly ridiculous 93 to a merely ridiculous 54. Cashflows are great, dividend flow confirmed and growth outlook strong. Also, almost $4m of amortisation charges are deducted before that result - should be a reducing cost as they increasingly grow on an organic basis.

However, share price is up nearly 100% on a year ago...

Lizard
15-01-2008, 02:07 PM
Share price has pulled back to more reasonable levels and now appear good long term buying. Currently $2.50 - up 12cps after announcing that first half revenues are up 62% at $105m. Not often a company can achieve this kind of growth with minimal new equity issued in the process.

Lizard
15-01-2008, 04:56 PM
Had to issue a replacement announcement. :eek:

Corrected to first half $105-$110m and 62-70% increase...must have found a stale cheque they forgot to bank... :D

Also, trading ahead of budget, continued strong demand and new managed services contracts to be announced shortly.

If it doesn't get squished in this market, buy some. If it gets squished, buy some more...

Lizard
11-08-2010, 01:57 PM
Result out and looks pretty steady to me - slightly better than my forecast, although perhaps down on other analyst predictions if depth is anything to go on. Very strong outlook statement, so that is encouraging.


we are heading for a record year in revenue and profitability based on the forward looking indicators

TWO is one of my core holdings in my long term "buy-and-hold" portfolio, as I think they have strong management and a long-term strategy for exceptional growth. Although I call this strategy "buy and hold" the amount I commit varies a little and TWO is one I have reduced recently at around $1.39 (after buying more at 90cps), as consider them expensive relative to other growth holdings in my core portfolio. However, I am still a big fan and would buy again on any decent dip or just happy to hold the remainder.

Stranger_Danger
11-08-2010, 03:11 PM
I'm a big fan too and loaded up at .90 odd (er, on the way down to 45-50 cents), but have also been out for a while, 1.40's from memory. Directors/management good operators.

Priced for perfection currently, and perfection will be hard to come by in the next 18 months.

I prefer RHD currently which are similar-ish, but alas they were priced for imperfection and thats now attracted a lowball takeover offer. Doh.

Lizard
11-08-2010, 03:31 PM
Yes, I have had good trades from RHD in the past, but would not have been one for my long term portfolio - at least back then - as management seemed to be all over the place in strategy and results. The value/recovery trades have been a case of too many to choose from for the past 2 years, so "can't kiss all the boys" (or girls - to quote Robbo).

For the few lazy investors like me (and Ratkin and Snoopy) who like a core portfolio of stocks they can buy and forget, the choice is a bit tougher - which is where TWO fits for me.

trackers
11-08-2010, 03:36 PM
They've just issued some corrections, as the first presentation was completely wrong :(

adjusted Earnings after tax 9.8mil instead of 8.1mil - 367% increase, not 285%

EPS 7.35c instead of 6.1c etc etc

Random mistakes to make? All good for holders though

steve fleming
19-12-2011, 09:03 PM
An old Robbo / Sharetrader favourite.

Absolutely smashed (down 56%) today on the back of a massive downgrade.

Forecast H112 EBITDA of $5m - $6m versus $13m for H111

Recruitment is generally a pretty good barometer for whats happening in the corporate world, so i imagine the February reporting period will not be pleasent.

Stranger_Danger
20-12-2011, 04:53 AM
I agree. I've always found TWO to be a fairly good leading indicator, so this doesn't bode well.

Some of it will be company specific (how is the MOE payroll migration going?) but Australia cannot avoid a recession next year in my opinion.

Incidentally, I believe TWO will be a screaming buy one day if they can keep their balance sheet tidy, but I don't hold at present.

Lizard
20-12-2011, 06:26 AM
One of my old favourites too - still held some. Ouch...

I think I will probably be adding to them again one day, but it could be a year or more away.

Stranger_Danger
20-12-2011, 01:28 PM
They had an ad in the local rag looking for 40 staff for the MOE contract. Expenses will be ramping up there, not sure if they're receiving revenue yet.

Stranger_Danger
20-12-2011, 01:30 PM
PS, For what its worth, which is probably not much, I've found that recruiters and real estate people are the two groups I can count on to say "so busy, everythings great!" regardless of the reality.

Hopefully the recruiters you know are different from the ones I know!

tsb
10-02-2012, 08:11 PM
Would be good if Talent2 would give an update on their NZ Ministry of Education contract. Datacome are still paying the teachers and school staff. It been a very long time in development

Stranger_Danger
10-02-2012, 08:26 PM
To be a little glib, the share price movements and the increasing debt are the update! Offsetting this, the directors/major shareholders buying at todays prices.

If you believe the current period is a "glitch" with frontloaded costs and short term migration issues and the balance sheet can stay alright, then these are close to a buy.

I suspect its still too early but I've taken a small initial position.

Lizard
11-02-2012, 07:42 AM
I was a bit surprised to see how far they'd let debt blow out this half. However, have lots of confidence in them for the longer term and currently seems like an excellent price.

Expect to be buying more at some stage - but feels likely to go lower before it turns again.

tsb
04-04-2012, 06:34 PM
Teachers' pay system further delayed
Vernon Small
The $63 million project to up-grade the teachers payroll system faces a further delay, and the Education Ministry's top IT manager has been put to work on the project full time.
The long running Novapay project, which will handle 110,000 pay cheques, has already been delayed by two years.
It was put on the Governments watchlist of high-risk projects after problems configuring software.
The planned launch in June 2011 was pushed back till mid-2012 but that has since slipped to mid-August with the first payround set to be processed in early September.
The fresh delay comes after the Australian supplier of the Novopay system, recruitment and payroll systems firm Talent2, saw its share price sliced in half in December.
That followed an announcement by Talent2 chief executive John Rawlinson that earnings at the mulinational company would be "significantly down" in the first half year as more companies pulled back on recuiting.
But Talent2 managing director for the HR managed services Mary Sue Rogers said the Government and the ministry need have no concerns about the company's strength and it ability to deliver on the project.
The Ministry's chief information officer Leanne Gibson, is working fulltime to oversea Novopays final stages, while a secondee fills her CIO role. The ministry said the secondment was from inside the ministry so there was no extra cost.

Stranger_Danger
04-05-2012, 10:37 PM
This one just keeps falling and falling. I am nibbling, but the steady move down doesn't inspire confidence.

Lizard
05-05-2012, 07:57 AM
No, it looks concerning. Either a bargain here, or major dilution likely.

The timing of the Major Payroll contract doesn't appear to have slipped beyond the "3rd quarter of calendar year 2012" that was given in the half year report. I see they have been advertising for Payroll Administrators in Wellington for a "newly established Talent2 Payroll Centre in Wellington".

Still looks a tough half for cashflow based on investment of $3.9m into earn-outs and $3m in the new payroll project, so the question will be whether they managed to make good on working capital management. Open Briefing at first half had some good insights on where they were heading and maybe worth a re-visit. Think there will be ample time to buy more after the FY report or when the share price shows signs of turning around, as a return to even half-way typical margins/cash generation without dilution would put them back over $1 next financial year in my view.

Stranger_Danger
28-05-2012, 12:28 PM
Low ball offer by founders and partner, admittedly at a big premium. Tends to confirm the value that was here.

Nice short term gain if it proceeds, but I was hoping for much more.

Joshuatree
28-05-2012, 12:41 PM
I was hoping to get mah money back ,bum.

Lizard
28-05-2012, 02:19 PM
Yes, too cheap.

Luck with me on this one though, since last quarter portfolio re-balance saw me triple at 46cps. Seemed too expensive a few days later when it plunged into the 30's, but will stop kicking myself now. :cool:

Stranger_Danger
28-05-2012, 02:46 PM
I started buying at 50 and felt a little bad in the low 30's but kept going. Average of 46. Nice, but my instinct is we'd have been much happier in 2 years....probably.