Pan Pacific Petroleum Nl (PPP)

[neopole]

obviously some one has no brains,
as the ppp sp is going down!

[lambton]

quote:Originally posted by neopole

obviously some one has no brains,
as the ppp sp is going down!



Does that make the Aussies brainier - because the sp is rising on ASX

or is it a curency alignment thing?

[Sharp737]

It is quite typical for the sp to go down somewhat once the drill meets the middle stages. However, it is strengthening somewhat in Oz, up a cent. Just a matter of waiting now....

[JoeKing]

Bricklanding report... just over half way, all's well.
Could be an exciting finish... Blicklanding, Tieke.
At "heads or tails" odds I will be happy.
Cheers
JK

[Hawke]

Yes PPP could really stomp higher in comming months....Or should I say will stomp higher.

H.

[Sharp737]

Bricklanding 1 well dry.

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20061205/pdf/3zywccmks2k0f.pdf

Tieke 1 at 3225m and drilling ahead.

Kev

[Sharp737]

Tieke 1 minor shows only. Possible well suspension for a sidetrack well to a deeper Kapnuni sandstone target.

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20061211/pdf/3101kt0qlzxsn0.pdf

[Sharp737]

No need for panic...in fact now is a buying opportunity before the Tui development. I think possibly a good buying opportunity IMHO.

Kev

[Paddy]

From Sept 06 Quaterly Activities: PPP's drilling programme

Well Name PPP share Potential
Reserves Timing
Bricklanding-1 4.157% 100 m bbls Q4, 2006
Tieke-1 10% 15 m bbls Q4,2006
Tui development 1-4 10% Q4, 2006 to Q2, 2007
Hector-1 14.1% >50-60 m bbls Q2,2007
Taranui-1 10.0% 5-15 m bbls Q1, 2007

Reaction to Tieke seems a bit knee-jerk and spec considering what is to come in the near future

[kittydashwood]

PPP
19/12/2006
MINE

REL: 1211 HRS Pan Pacific Petroleum NL

MINE: PPP: PATEKE-3H STARTS DRILLING

STOCK EXCHANGE ANNOUNCEMENT

19 December 2006

Pateke-3H starts drilling

Pan Pacific Petroleum N.L. ("PPP") reports that the development drilling
programme for the Tui Area Development has commenced. The first well in the
programme, Pateke-3H, spudded at approximately 07:00 hours on December 16,
2006. At 06:00 hours today, the well was drilling ahead at a measured depth
of 1,500 metres.

The Tui Area Development drilling campaign is being undertaken on a
"batch-drilling" basis, to optimise the sequencing of drilling operations and
the tie-ins of flowlines to the subsea development wells. The "batch
drilling" will involve the drilling of the upper sections and installing
subsea wellheads and trees on at least three of the planned four wells, prior
to drilling the deeper sections of the wells, including the horizontal
sections within the oil reservoirs.

Following the cementing of the surface casing and the installation of the
sub-sea tree, the Pateke-3H well will be temporarily suspended and the
drilling rig will be relocated to allow similar activities to be completed on
the Tui-2H and Tui-3H wells. Tui-2H is planned to be the first well drilled
to total depth and completed for hook-up to the production facilities.

The Tui Area Development is located within PMP 38158, in the Taranaki basin,
approximately 50 kilometres offshore of the west coast of the North Island of
New Zealand. First oil is expected from the development by June 30, 2007,
and when fully commissioned, a production rate peaking at 50,000 barrels of
oil per day is anticipated.

The project remains on-time and on-budget with the remaining key risks being
abnormal drilling and/or weather conditions.

Participants in Pateke-3H and PMP 38158 are:
Pan Pacific Petroleum NL (through its subsidiary WM Petroleum Ltd) 10.0%

Stewart Petroleum Company Ltd (through New Zealand Oil & Gas Ltd)
12.5%
AWE New Zealand Pty Limited ("AWE")
20.0%
New Zealand Overseas Petroleum Pty Ltd ("AWE") 22.5%

Mitsui E & P New Zealand Limited
35.0%

K M Ware
Company Secretary[|)]

[KentBrockman]

So what do others think is the situation of the options?

The way I see it they should currently be worth around A$0.06, with about 4 cent of that time value, and the rest intrinsic value.

As we move toward June the time value of course will approach zero.

Tui itself is probably not much more worth than PPP's current share price (unless the oil price increases significantly) .

So if no other exploration success between now and June the head share will only be slightly above A$0.15, while coming under pressure as the expiration date approaches, as some option holders will sell some of their head shares in order to pay for conversion of their options.

Under this scenario it seems quite likely that the options won't even end up in the money.

As revenue should begin to come in from Tui past June PPP may actually not be in need of further funds, so does any hope for an extension of the expiration date may be unfounded.

On the other hand, directors are option holders too, and there might be the argument that the expiration date of June was set with the aim that Hector should be drilled by then. In this case the options may well get an extention.

All this could be irrelevant though, if either Taranui or Hector are a discovery before June. According to the latest DO schedule it is still planned that these two are drilled prior to the end of May.

Any other scenarios possible?

[FRED]

They re enter Tieke and find.

Something surprises to the up or downside in the production drills.

AWE ann today on refinance states to free up cash for future aquisitions. Logically PPP takeout JV partner.

With OPEC stating today that sub $60 value is unsustainable and Tui economics at far less than that......a safe takeout bid could eventuate IMO.

FRED

[KentBrockman]

quote:Originally posted by FRED


They re enter Tieke and find.



I wonder if this is really likely. They were already almost 3600m down, and wasn't the theory that oil may only have moved up from Tui, not down?

Also, wouldn't it have been better to spend a few days on a sidetrack straight away, rather than mobilising and anchoring the rig twice more?

If the choice is drilling Hector or re-entering Tieke I know what I would do. [8D]

[Crypto Crude]

The way I look at the options Kent...
the options have too much risk...
these risks depend weather Hector and/or Taranui are drilled prior to expiration or not... if not then options are a sure thing to be out of the money...
option holders love volatility... and im not to confident of that leading upto first production...(eg 3c movement).... it should be a nice stable process where SP ticks up slowly... 1st production should be a few weeks before expiration though...
For it to be all worth while you need a 10c AUS, upwards movement in SP...
Favourable Hector could easily cover this and more... ahgghhhh
will it drill, wont it? this is not a question if you hold nzood
extension on expiration date ---> cant imagine it

to hold nzood is much better... the two option values will move in the same direction on the same taranaki events.. with NZO u are sure to get the whole taranaki project, and the overlapping kupe and more... and you get one extra year...

time value on PPP of 4c is too high, options are overpriced, 4c is too high for what little time is left...overvalued currently... The risk taker may be rewarded well..
either reduce risks by buyin nzood... or be prepared to lose the lot...
downside 100%
upside 100% plus a little
Not great risk return for my liking...

[I.T.Ancient]

I agree with you Shrewd. Tried to say many months ago that the options were overvalued (but maybe was too cryptic). Since then the heads have risen and the options have fallen (both as expected), so the options are closer to reasonable now. As you say, there could be a big reward but the risk is still in gambling territory. A punt on options might be fun if irrational optimism turns to irrational pessimism. Plenty of rollercoaster ride fun left in NZOOD however.

[Sharp737]

Well, the latest Tui development news nearly a week ago is real good with 3 development wells down to 1500m and being cased. Progress is good and barring any hiccups, we have a real winner here.

Now what I am surprised about is that the share price is still very low. However, once the Institutions get a handle on things, I myself cannot see this low share price lasting. In fact, it's hard to imagine things not happening here as the development proceeds and with the Company's own reports saying that payback would be after about 4 months production. Not to mention upside with Hector and the other 3 Tui prospects nearby.

Whether this low price continues, I'm not sure but there must be a pressure cooker heating up on this one. No big news items as yet on TV here in NZ about the Tui development but that must surely come. The price is probably tied back a little at time because of the NZOG Pike River perceived problems so hopefully that will be sorted out more. However, my sentiment is still "Go PPP!"

Kev

[the machine]

Per Tap Oil website it details Corvas - 2 to be drilled this year :

Corvus-2 WA-246-P 20.00% Gas appraisal 2007

Until now this was really a stranded gas asset, albeit a very thick gas colume - think Corvas -1 was 400m+ thick and open at the bottom.

Would be great to see an appraisal after so many years that may lead to a development.

M

[Sharp737]

Thanks for that M - good information

PPP has 10% interest in that project. And nothing has been mentioned as yet by PPP.

Here's the link to that area with corvus not even mentioned on PPP's website. 400m thick is one biggie gas field potentially.

http://www.panpacpetroleum.com.au/docs/carnarvon/wa246p.htm

Sharp

[Sharp737]

And here's the link to the Tap oil drilling program for Corvus-2

http://www.tapoil.com.au/pages/operations_drilling.asp

The plot thickens....

Sharp

[Sharp737]

Now this looks even better. Real good from NOG's announcement.

16 January 2007

NZOG’S TUI OIL SET TO DELIVER

New Zealand Oil & Gas Limited advises that drilling of the production wells in the Tui Oil Area is on schedule for oil production to commence from the fields in June 2007.

When fully commissioned, production peaking at 50,000 barrels of oil per day is anticipated. NZOG’s share of this production, based on the approved work programme and budget, an oil price of US$45 per barrel and a NZD:USD exchange rate of 0.65, gives a projected EBITDA* for the company in the first production year of approximately NZ$60 million.

NZOG has hedged approximately 36% of the first 12 months of production to guarantee a minimum price of US$50/barrel.

"Commencement of oil production from Tui will give a major boost to NZOG and help set the company on course for future growth" said Executive Chairman Tony Radford.

As at 0600 hours today, the Tui-2H well had been drilled to a measured depth of 3,427 metres. During the past week, progress on the current hole section has been 1,289 metres. The Tui-2H drilling programme involves the drilling of a pilot hole to approximately 4,200 metres measured depth through the F-Sand oil reservoir section, to guide the placement of the well in the reservoir. A horizontal production hole will then be drilled close to the top of the reservoir.

The shallow sections on three of the Tui Area production wells have been drilled on a "batch-drilling" basis, which involved the drilling of the upper sections and installing subsea wellheads and "trees" on three of the planned four wells, prior to drilling deeper, including the horizontal sections within the oil reservoirs.

In addition to the drilling programme, construction activities are also making good progress. The critical path item is the delivery of the "Umuroa" Floating Production Storage and Offload vessel (FPSO) which is under conversion in Singapore and on target to arrive in New Zealand waters in April 2007. Other construction activities, which are being carried out within New Zealand, are also running to schedule.

* EBITDA = Earnings before income tax, depreciation and amortisation.

Participants in PMP 38158 are:

New Zealand Oil & Gas Ltd (through subsidiary Stewart Petroleum Co. Ltd) 12.5%

AWE ** (Operator) 42.5%

Mitsui E & P New Zealand Ltd 35.0%

Pan Pacific Petroleum Ltd (through subsidiary WM Petroleum Ltd) 10.0%

** New Zealand Overseas Petroleum Pty Ltd (22.5%)

AWE New Zealand Pty Limited (20.0%)


Sharp

[Onthemoney]

Sure makes the options look interesting.

[Crypto Crude]

theres some good profits to be made here for a patient 7 month max investment....
We have seen the value of the options fall away lately... as I expected....
oil prices are now above $55....
PPP currently trading at 15.5 cents on the ASX...
PPP's share price has recently tracked down with the oil price...
expect share price to re correct slowly upwards

[8D]
.^sc

[bermuda]

Agree the options are a bit of a punt but I am holding for the promising Hector drill which WILL be drilled well before opytion expiry.
A broker has stated that Hector would be worth an xtra 70 cents net to NZO so there is a heap of upside for both PPP and PPPOA if Hector is a winner.And of corse NZOOD.

[Crypto Crude]

Old owl and I were both in agreement on the 22/12 that options were overvalued...

remember that the options exercise price of 15cents is an australian 15cents
exchange rate of .9
$.15/.9= $.1666

so exercise price is 16.66 cents NZ...
you can buy heads on the market tomorrow at 18cents and options at 5cents
breakeven on the options are 21.66cents at expiration if bought tomorrow

I think there is a far greater chance that SP will be above 22cents at expiration than below... every 5c movement above 21.66 is 100% profit...at 18c a share.... and if 26.66 at expiration then
26.66c, options 100% profit... shares 48%profit
31.66c options 200% profit.... shares 75% profit
36.66c options 300% profit.... shares 103%profit...
at 31cents you would surely be happy with 75% return on the shares...

Bermuda... the 70cents value to NZO is the value at production...
with say 3 years to production.... and 15% discount per year
100/(1.15)^3=65%
.65*70=45cents
so the value of Hector that your options will be able to take advantage of is 45cents (in NZO terms)... not the full value of 70cents....
regardless, yes still a heap of upside....
expect SP to tick up as oil prices rise....
[8D]
.^sc

[Sharp737]

Now just imagine if Management extend the options 3 or 6 months?

This sort of thing has happened before. But anyway, with the way that the Tui development is going (very well at this stage), I would agree that Hector is going to be drilled before the expiry date. Whether or not Hector is successful, IMO the options will increase.

[Sharp737]

Aaaah...looks like Hector to be drilled in March April 2007 according to AWE's website

http://www.awexp.com.au/

Just click on drilling programes. Now if that's correct, it's great news.

Sharp

[JBmurc]

Whats the upside in PPP -current ASX sp 15c-
Once Tui producing 5,000bopd=PPP[?]
looks very cheap to me at 15c without looking to far into PPP balances & dept, only got a MKTcap of 64mill
my rough est. 5000x$80bbl=400,000 gross perday AUD X 350 =140mill gross even if costs tax hegdes PPP must be looking at 60mill+ [?]sounds to good to be true;)

[Sharp737]

Tell you what....if I had a lot of spare cash, I would be getting more. But that's me. Up to everyone to do there own research and as always, you make the call. There is always a risk. Obviously there is some big sellers at the moment which is why the price is down but that may be a golden opportunity for some.

Having a look at it though, it looks like a no brainer considering Tui development is going great, payback in an estimated 4 months, very good chances of extending Tui's reserves, the big Hector prospect and others in Taranaki plus those in Australia along with some new management which all bodes well for PPP. And plenty of cash and finance for the development.

Sharp

[Crypto Crude]

quote:Sharp737 Posted - 31/01/2007 : 8:31:04 PM
Tell you what....if I had a lot of spare cash, I would be getting more. But that's me. Up to everyone to do there own research and as always, you make the call. There is always a risk. Obviously there is some big sellers at the moment which is why the price is down but that may be a golden opportunity for some.
Having a look at it though, it looks like a no brainer considering Tui development is going great, payback in an estimated 4 months, very good chances of extending Tui's reserves, the big Hector prospect and others in Taranaki plus those in Australia along with some new management which all bodes well for PPP. And plenty of cash and finance for the development.
Sharp
agree...
"if I had a lot of spare cash, I would be getting more"....
hey buddy, If I had any spare cash, I would be getting more....
yes, pay back is 3-4 months at Tui
look, no buyers today on asx.... no takers at 15cents.... wow mumma....
[8D]
.^sc

[Crypto Crude]

with Hector drill something like 6-8weeks away...
then one would really want to be getting in within the next four weeks....
SP will bounce just before Hector drill, allow abit of extra time....
should see 17cents aus mid hector drill
20 cents just after production in June....
guaranteed 30% here... a no brainer....
personally not sure if I will re-enter here, holding a few others with certain upsides also....
PPPOA (options are now starting to reach my target prices) which correspond more correct risk-return favourability...
Thinkin PPPOA will fall before they go up...
get in time is around 1 month from now or earlier....

SP-currently 15cents on ASX...
[8D]
.^sc

[JoeKing]

Hi Shrewdy
I honestly hope this dry tit eventually produces for you, but atm there are no queues lining up for crumbs.
Cheers
JK

[digger]

quote:Originally posted by JoeKing

Hi Shrewdy
I honestly hope this dry tit eventually produces for you, but atm there are no queues lining up for crumbs.
Cheers
JK



Interesting Joe King that as you say no one is lining up for the crumbs. That is true but but has no bearing on the outcome.The presence or otherwise of oil at Hector is unaffected by current market sentiment. To me it is more like that in the past the market has got too high on success chances so now is downgrading it .
The market will either be correct or it could turn out to be the the biggest missed opportunity for capital gain in years
About 1 in 7 chances is my guess going on the seismic and oil shows at Pukeko.

[kittydashwood]

Still holding despite liquidating 80% of my NZX porfolio over Feb.
Upside is very real. Insiders could be tempted to sell at the .35
Nice vehicle for an international player looking for SW Pacific exposure.
Very impressed with Diamond drilling (with RIG and SLB world leaders), DO delivered on budget on time with the production drilling, nice not to blowout at that stage as it easily could have.
Every day closer to production the risk window closes and the price must eventually move higher. I hasten to add oil will have to fall below 44$ in my estimate to bring pressure on the tui operational profit.

discl.
hold
PGW, PPP, NZX, NZFSU

[Crypto Crude]

Many moons ago one of the JV partners said Tui breakeven point is $30us per barrel.... and profitable at $40us per barrel....

PPP market value is $67 million
11million cash at bank year end less expected quarterly cashflow expenditure of 7million so 4million cash at bank....

20million used up on two seperate loans....as at 31-1-06
had 12million US left to be drawn down as at 31-1-06
27% of reserves hedged at min of $50 max of $94
2.8million barrels to PPP
2.8m * (60-30)us dollars
=84million US dollars...
84/.75=
112million NP before tax....
at $70... NPBT is $149m AUS
and Hector....


quote:JK said.....
1.....I honestly hope this dry tit eventually produces for you,
2....but atm there are no queues lining up for crumbs.
1....SC is currently not holding this "dry tit"...
my hands are already full..[:p]
2.....that is why it is good to be in early as you dont have to deal with all the hussle and bussle when the queues do come back...

when you look at the 20 mill gathered on loans... it doesnt look too flash... oil prices will dictate this company...
expect oil prices to remain around the $60 this year...
sometimes it will fall below, other times it will go over...
[8D]
.^sc

[Dazza]

fellas whats the exercise date of the options?

30 june 2007?
the same date as first oil comes in?

[Crypto Crude]

Hey Dazzler....
yes you are correct, expiration of Options date is 30 June 2007...

QUOTE-"The project risks continue to be reduced and the project remains on schedule for first oil by June 30, 2007"
all though The joint venture has approved a 9% budget increase to account for slower drilling rates than anticipated...
Any set backs and these options are worthless...
Options on ASX fell 15% yesterday....
PPPO-PPPOA will continue to fall.... and start rising in the lead up to Hector Drill....
Options donot provide favourable return for your risk....
NZOOD is my pick... or NZO on CFD....! in about a months time.....
[8D]
.^sc

[bermuda]

Well someone just picked up 1.5 million options at 2.7 cents . That someone must be confident.

This email from John Campbell at oilers.com.au.

I refer subscribers to the recent announcements from the Tui Oil field JV partners saying that Tui 2H drilling had to be lenghtened after the oil reserve was found to extend further than orignally mapped on the seismic study. A NZOG spokesperson said that the discovery of a "bigger oil column" was a" positive indicator."

The development budget was increased by 9% to cover the additional cost of drilling a longer than anticipated horizontal. As we suggested in last week's OGW we expect this will lead to a "reserve estimate upgrade" at the end of the currrent drilling program. Currently the 2P reserves are 27.9 million barrels.

We have accordingly been buying Pan Pacific Petroleum for what we see as the best leveraged exposure to this oil field. The operator , Australian Worldwide Exploration, expects to build production up to a peak of 50,000 barrels of oil a day, some 5,000 bopd net to Pan Pacific. The investment pay back looks like being just a few months. We have conservatively estimated a net value to PPP of 14 cents a share based on a net of A$30 barrel (see OGW of 11 March). PPP has a 10% stake in the field. First oil is scheduled for end June.

But in addition to the prospect of significant cash flow from a producing field in just three months time, PPP has 10-14% exposure to two wildcat wells in the same area, one Hector #1 with the potential for more than 100 mmbls recoverable (yes we know it pays to be wary of such estimates!). The other Taranui #1, is a smaller target but closer to the discovery wells. Both will be drilled before production starts at Tui. So any disappoinment from these two wells will be quickly offset by the start up of Tui.

Success at Hector would more than double the size of the Tui field and could be tied back into the production infrastructure. And success will have a significant impact on PPP as it will on the other partners. AWE and NZO.

In addition Pan Pacific has been talked about for some time as a takeover target. Any raider out there would be wise to make their run sooner rather than later.

In short with PPP we have:


(a) Reserve upgrade likely

(b) Two wildcats close to the current discoveries

(c) A T/O target

(a) and (b) before end June

The Company has 433 million shares on issue valueing it at $70 million. It has $10 million in cash and the prospect of another $10 million at the end of June when 157 million options with a 15 cent exercise price are due. The options are already in the money and should be more so as the expiry date nears.

Now we are not making a buy recommendation. We don't have the requisite licence to enable us to do that. We simply want to draw subscribers attention to a stock which we personally are buying as one of the best prospects for short term upside in an otherwise very ordinary oiler market.

For the really adventurous the options are currently trading at around 2.5 cents. This means an investment of $5,000 gives one control over 200,000 PPP shares for a total exposure of 17.5 cents a share. These are some of the best odds we have seen for a long while given the revenues soon to be flowing Pan Pacific's way. So we have been buyng the oppies as well.

One for the watch list!

Regards,
John Campbell

[Mr Tommy]

Whats UP ?

Today PPP volume on ASX is over 1.7 million.
PPPO options are 3.2million on ASX, 1.7 million on NZX.

[digger]

Yes Mr Tommy we do notice that but can only reask your question,What's up.
Nothing else in the related oil sector is up so it is only PPP specific. Who knows for a long time now PPP has been a sitting duck for takeover. Or maybe someone just wants a good size stake in Hector.

[Sharp737]

Good info Bart, keep it up :-)

Sharp

[etrader]

From memory nzo owned a blocking stake in ppp, as they are jv partners it probably makes smart choice. Owned ppp a long time ago they have been going nowhere for a while now.

[Sharp737]

I think they have close to 10%....will check up on that

Sharp

[Sharp737]

PPP Annual Report

http://www.panpacpetroleum.com.au/pdf/oct2006/PPP_ANNUAL%20REPORT_2006.pdf

NOG has 7.59%

Mr Alan Tattersfield has 3.52%

NOG Nominee's has 1.11%

Sharp

[etrader]

How has PPP been effected by the blow out to get tui to production, i'm a bit out of the loop these days on ppp but i guess they will be effected a bit.

[Crypto Crude]

quote:Bart-Success at Hector would more than double the size of the Tui field and could be tied back into the production infrastructure. And success will have a significant impact on PPP as it will on the other partners. AWE and NZO.

Hi bart...
I thought that success as Hector would be a seperate development, rather than just a tie in at tui.....

Yeah bit of a shock today with Pan... I personally was not expecting a re-rating until real close to Hector drill... this situation is probably going to be the case with NZO....NZO investors are mad about the other projects and IMO wont act until they have to...
PPP is a solid little company.... note also that debts are growing and are now in the region of 20million dollars....
[8D]
.^sc

[shasta]

Sharp 737

NZO exercised their PPP options a while back & now hold just over 10% of PPP.

There won't be a takeover any time soon, so long as Tony Radford remains at the helm.

He has already indicated to NZO he is stepping down so he isnt in both the CEO/Chairman roles & this blocking stake secures his position.

NZO would be foolish to sell out before TUI is producing, but i can't see them buying any more shares in PPP other than to remain over 10%, should any further dillution occur.

[Sharp737]

Shasta

Thanks for that. Yes, I think it is highly unlikely that PPP will be taken over. NZOG had their chance years ago when I think they had close on 60% of PPP. However, one could be wrong but I don't think so. The 10% or so that NZOG has will deter any would be suitors like AWE or whoever.

Sharp

[FRED]

Shasta

I think you are mistaken in so far as NZO taking up th options in PPP.

Yes they have some options and I recall they applied and recieved over subscription in the cash issue.

However as to exercising...they have not...and it would be bloody stupid to do until expiry in any case.

FRED

[zorba]

.
Nymex crude back over US$61 / barrel .....

http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/commodities/energyprices.html
.

[shasta]

Thanks Fred

You are quite right & i stand corrected.

On a fully dilluted basis (assuming NZO take up all options held), they would hold just over 10% of PPP.

[Bilo]

I wasn't convinced about John Campbell's "no buy order" but hugely effective ramp of PPP. PPP is not to my thinking the best option for exposure to TAP. Here's why:

Estimate that TAP will produce 30M barrels of oil for revenue less operating costs NZD50 per bo: say NZD 1500M
(lets ignore other financing / loan issues for the purpose of this exercise)

NZO at 90c, 200M shares on issue, 12.5% of TAP, CFD Margin 10%
Invest 9cNZ buys exposure to 94c from TAP
Exposure ~10c / c invested

AWE at 270Ac, 450M shares on issue, 42.5% of TAP, CFD Margin 5%
Invest ~15cNZ buys exposure to 141c from TAP
Exposure ~9c / c invested

PPP at 20c, 400M shares on issue, 10% TAP, No CFD
Invest 20cNZ buys exposure to 38c from TAP
Exposure ~2c / c invested

For the purposes of simplicity I have left out the oppies as they are a different punt altogether.

[Sharp737]

Not really convinced Bilo.

Pay back is going to be in some 3-4 months or so....that's one heck of a lot of money coming in after that even with the field rates beginning to tail off. And it looks highly likely that there will be a reserve upgrade with a 20m oil column found in Tui as compared to a 10m column on the first exploration well. And all going well, Amokura and Pateke with the same oil/water contact level? The next development well there is going to be intersting.

And what are they going to do with all that extra money after the loans are paid back? If Mr Tattersfield has his way, we could see some real investment in other oil projects, not just exploration, similar to how AWE operates. Now if this the case, and this is without even looking at Hector and Taranui etc., then we could see a little minnow become at least a fat sprat and then....who knows?

Of course, that is only my view and I could be wrong. It's the "unknown" factor" here that could be quite exciting.

Sharp

[digger]

Bilo,your comments for PPP are probably near enought if the status-quo remains.However PPP of the three you compare has tui as the biggest part of it's makeup and will be hughly affected by an upgrade that is looking very likely.What you are seeing is positioning for the leverage play. I certainly have not got my PPP's up for sale at these prices after this small upward movement.

[Sharp737]

And perhaps it's just a matter of time before the Institutions start making a play for PPP. Easy money I would say.

Sharp

[bermuda]

With all the action now starting to appear and with Hector yet to be drilled I am glad I held on to my PPP options.Could go an awful lot higher.

[Onthemoney]

What is the likely hood of AWE moving in on PPP

[shasta]

OTM

NZO still effectively hold a blocking stake, so unlikely AWE would move on PPP, although NZO used to hold 50% + of PPP & have sold down before.

[temuk]

you are so right

NZO gave PPP shares to NZO holders on a 1 for 1 basis and kept the rest. but I can't pin point a time.
It was after Feb 00 and before Dec 04

[digger]

I got those ppp's and it was a long time ago so without looking it up i would say about 2001 or 6 years ago.So who is the historian to search the records just to see when it really was??

[Crypto Crude]

Digger...
pretty good guess...
market release of PPP distribution on 19-12-01....
PPP listed on the NZ market on 14-jan-2002....

on the 19th-12-01 NZO's SP was 41cents closing price...
by the 27th March 2002 SP fell to 32cents....

I guess no-one was any better off by the distribution as Market Value of NZO fell by the amount of the PPP distribution...
[8D]
.^sc

[Lion]

Director Alan Tattersfield appears to have exercised options for 15.7 m shares to take his holding to 49.7m, that's 11% or more of the company. Hmmm, looks good when directors buy up!

[digger]

quote:Originally posted by Lion

Director Alan Tattersfield appears to have bought 15.7 m shares to take his holding to 49.7m, that's 11% or more of the company. Hmmm, looks good when directors buy up!


Lion,Alan Tattersfield did not here buy shares he converted 15,725,698 of his options. The real question is why did he do so this early when it is not required until end of june this year.Maybe there is something i do not know. One reason could be personal as in the shares give voteing rights that options do not. Maybe to my way of thinking something is coming up before options need to be converted that he wants the extra power of an additional 15 million heads. But i am just quessing. What are your thoughts??

[Lion]

Digger, yes you are correct, he exercised options. (I did make a change in my edit). As for the reasons, who knows? Your guesses are usually pretty good. But it would seem positive for the company, whatever the detail of his motives.

Edit (again) he did spend A$2.4m - a vote of confidence, surely.

[bermuda]

PPP and NZO plus their options must surely be the hottest stocks on the market over the next few months.The only thing that could destroy that is a huge failure at Tui.And that is still a risk.

But the Directors of PPP, given their current buying, would seem pretty pleased with progress so far.

[the machine]

maybe ppp needed the cash

M

[Sharp737]

Yes, because of the extra cost's now

Sharp

[Sharp737]

PPP
03/04/2007
MINE

REL: 1613 HRS Pan Pacific Petroleum NL

MINE: PPP: Tui Development reaches key milestone-03April07

STOCK EXCHANGE ANNOUNCEMENT

3 April 2007
Tui Development reaches key milestone

Pan Pacific Petroleum NL reports that the floating production, storage and
offtake vessel (FPSO) Umuroa has sailed from Singapore and is heading towards
its field location in New Zealand. The vessel departed Singapore on April
1, 2007 and is expected to arrive at the Tui Area in mid April.

This event will be a key milestone for the Tui project.

The Tui Area Development is located within PMP 38158, in the Taranaki basin,
approximately 50 kilometres offshore of the west coast of the North Island of
New Zealand. First oil is expected from the development by June 30, 2007,
and when fully commissioned, a production rate peaking at 50,000 bopd is
anticipated.

Participants in PMP 38158 are:
Pan Pacific Petroleum NL (through its subsidiary WM Petroleum Ltd) 10.0%

New Zealand Oil & Gas Ltd (through Stewart Petroleum Company Ltd ) 12.5%

AWE New Zealand Pty Limited ("AWE")
20.0%
New Zealand Overseas Petroleum Pty Ltd ("AWE") 22.5%

Mitsui E & P New Zealand Limited
35.0%

K M Ware
Company Secretary

Sharp

[Onthemoney]

Go you good thing.

[FRED]

Indeed OTM...long time coming..as I recall u were one of the ones that swapped a few into this minnow?

F

[Onthemoney]

Yes more than a few. Great memory Fred

[Crypto Crude]

"lengthing of Tui-2H production well horizontal section which intersected a more extensive oil column than predicted"
wonder if Tui Oil reserves may soon to be increasing??
[8D]
.^sc

[digger]

Shrewd Crude ,as tui-h3 was neutral we so far have only a smaller increase to look forward to. Amokura and Pateke will be where the final call will come from ,and we should remember an increase there is less likely that at TUI for reason i have stated several times before. You should note that i do not hope any of that but think it best to go into it conservativly. The offical line is do not count your chickens before we know the size of the basket.

[Crypto Crude]

cheers for reply digger...
Im just looking at possible situations that can spur SP b4 production...
I will have to go back through the thread and have a peak...
less than 100 days to production...
happy to be back on board...
lata...
[8D]
.^sc

[KentBrockman]

There is a very interesting article from Oil & Gas Weekly posted on HC.

[JBmurc]

Yeah JC is very confident of PPP with potential to go well over $1 ASX on hector success
Sounds good to me after doubling my PPP holding at 15.5c

[Crypto Crude]

cheers Kent,
good to see my norwest getting a small note...
that article mentions something I have been seriously thinking about, which is to sell my holdings (nzood) just prior to the big hector announcement...
they put it at 10-20% success chance...
with the massive amounts of upside, im thinking of holding all the way on this one... $1 PPP... has gotta put NZO around 2, 2-fifty...
$1 ppp can seriously be misleading I add...
$1 is a figure which will still take many years to achieve as we would be looking at 3 years bare minimum until first production...
when it was one year from first tui production, the project was seriously discounted...realised valuations have only just flowed through...
[8D]
.^sc

[KentBrockman]

quote:Originally posted by Shrewd Crude



$1 ppp can seriously be misleading I add...
$1 is a figure which will still take many years to achieve as we would be looking at 3 years bare minimum until first production...




Not necessarily. I remember when Santos discovered Jeruk, and it was first thought to be a giant find, Cue shot up from 7 cents to 42 cents purely based on this discovery, within a very short time.


So I think it's not entirely impossible to see a dollar in case of a Hector success.[8D]

[Crypto Crude]

Kent...
I remember the CUE situation quite clearly... Ive followed Cue for longer than any other share...
cue was the reason why I got onto oil shares, and in particular penny ones...:D...

Around the same time as the Jeruk announcement, Cue announced development go ahead at Oyong, and increased reserves there, and shortly after they bought a stake in Maari...(on the cheap)... It was a double whammy on the SP with Oyong...

the 42cents alone didnot fare up the real value of Jeruk to Cue (at the time)... Santos interpretted that Jeruk contained 750million barrels (as you said, giant field).... another company interpretted that it was a one billion barrel field plus.... analysts expected this to add $1 to Santos SP....
for Cue's 13.5% stake of this monster field hardly values in the real value for a jump from 7 to 42cents alone even if we ignore the double whammy....
Full valuation at the time would have had Cue well over $1.5....at a guess
(with net oil to CUE expected 70-100million barrel)...

recently Santos interpretted the field to only contain 50million barrels...
on massive downgrade of resource...Cue's suffered ever since...
a stock that im looking at a re-entry for Maari production...
as re-rating will unfold there also...
[8D]
.^sc

[Crypto Crude]

ive also said this before,
with all the hype around NZO many years back...
SP went crazy, and projects were fully valued at the time, markets had seemed to value NZO's projects as if they were at production date, but yet they were still years out...
hence the situation of sideways SP for the last umpteen years...
currently an undervalued stock with tui re-rating expected before or on tui production...
IMO, im expecting something similar to a possible Hector discovery where a 3 year development at Hector would initially rise on oil strike... but still remain undervalued for most of the time through development stage...
then a re-rating... then production with another re-rating...
to value projects at full value at oil strike, with no tie in , is murderous....
PPP $1 at Hector oil strike would put it at $1.5 at production in my books...
[8D]
.^sc

[digger]

Shrewd Crude, your summary of NZO sp movement these last umpteen years is the way the market see it as well,but it leave out the most important events that when included can not be projected into the future and then say a Hector discovery will have the same impact.That is Rita and Katrina caused a world wide cost increase on exactally the resources required to develope TUI. Also never again will the company develop three projects at once with nil income.
So a hector discovery post income will not send the SP down the same path as in the last upteen years.If anything a very different path will ocure. The market will this time be much more consertive,knoledge on how to handle Hector will be from experience from TUI and income will be incoming to take care of any extrordinary events.

So while i agree with the past summary it will not be very good indication of the future.

[Crypto Crude]

digger,
what I said was that Id expect development to go straight ahead, and be producing in 3 years to 3.5 years... rather than Hector returns following the same path as in the past...

Also NZO's past performance probably could have been put down in part to mums and dads, where NZO was their first experience in that sector... and did not understand the time value of money and discounting, and undervaluation... and the share number of Mums and dads talking NZO and driving prices up...
undervaluation, because now is the time when they should be getting in, and they cant see it undervalued, because they see a past umpteen years of poor returns...
Discounting projects is a very important idea, while you wait 3 years for your project to produce, you could make a return elsewhere such as cash in the bank earning interest...
...along with added undervaluation of the stock because of all the risks...


quote:That is Rita and Katrina caused a world wide cost increase on exactally the resources required to develope TUI.
yes Rita and Katrina caused budget increases, it also caused oil prices to rise...
strained supply we are still suffering from today buddy...
Rita and Katrina make the production stage far more lucurative, at a tradeoff for upfront increased costs...(production stage less than 100 days away, and yet calcs still have oil valued at 45 bucks, or 50bucks...
time to start increasing target prices me feels.

Discounting and undervaluation in the oil industry is norm (mostly for the stocks heading into production some time in the future)...
yes there are a few companys like NZO that go against conventional approaches to valuation...

my saying for the day....
One barrel in the hand is better than two barrels in the bush.:D
Lion, so 466million barrels in the hand is better than 1.4billion barrels in the bush:D
20 bagger on the od's... if we strike a capital B then why not...

heres a question others might be wondering aswell....
So we are going to drill Hector first, and if its a failure then redrill tieke...
or if Hectors a success, then drill hector south? as then there would be a far more attractive drill...
So are we looking at two drills that depend on what happens at Hector?

[8D]
.^sc

[Lion]

SC, aren't the only barrels really in the hand the 30m in the Tui area?

Hmmm, who knows what the drilling program is now. Operator AWE's activity program was last updated in Feb and shows just Hector and Taranui 1 after the Tui development. Hector starting end of April, but we know Tui is running a bit behind. No mention of Tieke or Hector South. I wouldn't think there's much flexibilty in the rig's schedule, altho as AWE is later set to drill West Cape, they might, just possibly, prefer to do Hector South if Hector 1 looks good.

Exciting times, I reckon. Having billion-barrel-in-the-bush dreams!

[Crypto Crude]

quote:Lion-SC, aren't the only barrels really in the hand the 30m in the Tui area?
no... currently there are no barrels in the hand...
barrels in the hand will hopefully grow at 6250 net to NZO from Some time in June...
not in the hand, until actually in the hand...:D

the 1 in the hand two in the bush Is just an old saying mate...

at the moment 30 million is coming out of the bush, still hasnot made the clearing... the 1.4 capital B is still amongst the shroud...
[8D]
.^sc

[COLIN]

Help! I need some counselling! I'm feeling guilty about having taken 185,000 PPPOA off some hapless seller just a few days ago for 4.1 cents. What shall I do?!

[Tok3n]

If they find stuff at hector u sell 500 PPOA for 4.1c.

[COLIN]

quote:Originally posted by Tok3n

If they find stuff at hector u sell 500 PPOA for 4.1c.




Thanks, yes, what a grand idea.
I feel the pangs of guilt have disappeared already.

[Snow Leopard]

quote:Originally posted by COLIN

Help! I need some counselling! I'm feeling guilty about having taken 185,000 PPPOA off some hapless seller just a few days ago for 4.1 cents. What shall I do?!

See if you can out-gloat macdunk on Share Investor NZ (http://*************nz.jconserv.net/viewtopic.php?t=297) and ShareChat (http://www.sharechat.co.nz/forum/showthread.php?p=11930#post11930)

[COLIN]

quote:Originally posted by Paper Tiger


quote:Originally posted by COLIN

Help! I need some counselling! I'm feeling guilty about having taken 185,000 PPPOA off some hapless seller just a few days ago for 4.1 cents. What shall I do?!

See if you can out-gloat macdunk on Share Investor NZ (http://*************nz.jconserv.net/viewtopic.php?t=297) and ShareChat (http://www.sharechat.co.nz/forum/showthread.php?p=11930#post11930)


Impossible!

[neopole]

a 12.5% drop.
did the director die?
or is a fatcat trying to wobble the SP to get a few more before the oil flows in 60 days?
or are the options draging down the SP because of a late hector drill?

[neopole]

sorry.........
i just remembered who the director is.
the SP should of doubled with news like that!

[Unicorn]

quote:Originally posted by neopole

a 12.5% drop.
did the director die?
or is a fatcat trying to wobble the SP to get a few more before the oil flows in 60 days?
or are the options draging down the SP because of a late hector drill?


A few cents drop, on minimal turnover. Someone wanted to quit a few, and there were no buyers.

[Gofor Broke]

quote:Originally posted by COLIN

Help! I need some counselling! I'm feeling guilty about having taken 185,000 PPPOA off some hapless seller just a few days ago for 4.1 cents. What shall I do?!

???????? BFD
4.5c today, perhaps you should cash them in and buy a lotto ticket.

[Sharp737]

End of day quote in Oz was PPPO 5c to buy, sell 5.9c...looks like they are starting to rise again....which I think they will as the pressure will build as we near the date for production. If PPP extended the options another month or so it would be nice but probably won't happen. Hector will be later than first envisaged and I think they started Amokura 3rd April or thereabouts and might finish that soon as they are around 1200m on the horizontal section. Then they complete the casing and move to the Pateke site and start drilling in say 7-10 days? And then another 5 weeks for Pateke and start Hector 14th - 20th June??? Interesting.

Sharp

[lambton]

quote:Originally posted by Gofor Broke


quote:Originally posted by COLIN

Help! I need some counselling! I'm feeling guilty about having taken 185,000 PPPOA off some hapless seller just a few days ago for 4.1 cents. What shall I do?!

???????? BFD
4.5c today, perhaps you should cash them in and buy a lotto ticket.



Thanks to the punter who talk my oppies off me for 7 cents. Good luck hope it works out.

[Sharp737]

Just bought some more PPP's and looking to possibly buy more :-)
$$$ for jam IMO

[neopole]

it took around 32days to setup and drill the amokura well,
so the last well could be drilled in a similar timeframe putting the completion of drilling somewhere in the 17th to 21st of june.
so the oppies are out of the gamble for hector.
but still in play for about a week or so for the start up of the tui project.
the last 2-3 weeks of june will be exciting for PPP options.
im glad im comfortable with my share of heads.

[the machine]

quote:Originally posted by neopole

it took around 32days to setup and drill the amokura well,
so the last well could be drilled in a similar timeframe putting the completion of drilling somewhere in the 17th to 21st of june.
so the oppies are out of the gamble for hector.
but still in play for about a week or so for the start up of the tui project.
the last 2-3 weeks of june will be exciting for PPP options.
im glad im comfortable with my share of heads.


announement on april 2 for spudding of amokura = 43 days to drill & complete.

4th hole has already been drilled to about 1500 m and sub tree installed - so one would expect about 4 weeks to complete once OP has re entered hole = something would be wrong if not completed by june 15.


Still have 40,000 ppp oc's and expect will be converting them prior to Hector getting exciting come mid July.

IMO the excise date will not be extended - ppp need the money to help retire Tui development debt and since oc's in the money now then why risk Hector being a dud with an extended excise date.

The real excitment will be as Hector passes 3,000m - oc's will be no longer be a distraction, leaving PPP pumping Tui oil and their share price rocketing up to new heights - might even put a sell bid out now, say 50,000 @ au40c ready for early July.

M

[digger]

Correct there ,the machine. Pateke could take up to two weeks less time somewhat depending on the final length of the horizontal drill. So i suppose if it takes a long time that is good news. We have to grab indications from whatever piece of info there is as they have decided to no longer tell us how long the drill is or the oil bearing column height. No news as we now have will get taken as bad news but that might not necessarily be so,but it becomes the best quess in the dark.

[Onthemoney]

Check the depth out... I am thinking about taking out the sellers....

[Mr Tommy]

Onthemoney - that would be a good move.

On the weekend it was reported that NOGs first full year ebitda from Tui was now expected to be $70m, up from $60m. This extra $10m equates to 4c per NOG head share.

PPP has 10% of Tui against NOGs 12.5%, so should be fairly similar, and for PPP it equates to an extra 2c or so per share.

[Onthemoney]

Yeah I have done it a few times before - CDI was a great one for me....

[KentBrockman]

Does anyone have a pdf of the exercize form, or a link to it? One would think that it's on their website, but it doesn't appear to be.

[the machine]

quote:Originally posted by KentBrockman

Does anyone have a pdf of the exercize form, or a link to it? One would think that it's on their website, but it doesn't appear to be.




its not on the website

on the back of your original notice of entitlement there is an excise form, but of course that does not help those bought on market.

frankly it should be on the website, but also ppp should send a notice that should include the form.

we had following exchange back in march.

----- Original Message -----
From: Maureen Dunmore
To:
Sent: Thursday, March 29, 2007 7:46 AM
Subject: Re: ppp options


The conversion form should be on the reverse of your Holding Statement.
We can send a replacement if you do not have your Statement, but you will need to advise us of your Holder Number.

Regards
----- Original Message -----
From:
To: registries@registriesltd.com.au
Sent: Thursday, March 29, 2007 9:06 AM
Subject: ppp options


please advise if there is a form that can be downloaded so one can exercise their options





m

[Wiremu]

Why do you need a form???

Just send your cheque to the share registry with a note containing your shareholder number.

[KentBrockman]

I noticed via AWE that PPP has gained a new exploration licence, adjacent to the Maui field.

Must have quite high prospectivity, purely due to its location. 2D is planned and one wonders why PPP doesn't bother announcing this.

[the machine]

quote:Originally posted by Wiremu

Why do you need a form???

Just send your cheque to the share registry with a note containing your shareholder number.


ppp have an announcement out re excising options

M

[luckysexice]

ppp has drip from it all time high
it is some thing happening

[corporateraider]

I think that there are two factors causing the share price to drop. The first is the drop in the oil price. The second is that the price of the head shares is likely to come under pressure in the period leading up to the exercise of the options as some individuals look to sell heads to exercise options.

[bermuda]

Corporateraider,
Yes, you have to be very careful holding Stock coming up to option exercise date.
PPP have held out well because there is so much good news in the pipeline. I suppose the news that the pipelaying vessel had blown an engine requiring 10 days shut down didnt help either but Bruce Philips says things still on track for oil 30 June. I reckon it will be 2 weeks later.
Sold some options out at 8.5 to get a bit of cash to buy into the forthcoming Pike ( NZO ) float.

[Paddie]

quote:Originally posted by bermuda

Corporateraider,
Yes, you have to be very careful holding Stock coming up to option exercise date.
PPP have held out well because there is so much good news in the pipeline. I suppose the news that the pipelaying vessel had blown an engine requiring 10 days shut down didnt help either but Bruce Philips says things still on track for oil 30 June. I reckon it will be 2 weeks later.
Sold some options out at 8.5 to get a bit of cash to buy into the forthcoming Pike ( NZO ) float.


2 weeks later Bermuda [:p][:p]

Paddie (you asked for it):D:D:D

[bermuda]

Paddie,
You have done it again mon
That's why I mentioned it mon.
Okay I should have put a few !!!! after the word 'later'

[Sharp737]

Of course, production is getting so very close now and there will be NO looking back once the oil starts flowing. Then of course, the drill of Hector is extremely close too. Will be very interesting but I would say there is going to be one heck of a lot of people wanting in on the action pretty soon options or otherwise. Too much of a no-brainer that this share is going to rocket IMO.

Sharp

[the machine]

if asx is any guide, then ppp looking for a good jump in nz on tuesday.

there was some broker report in the weekend press showing ppp as a speculative buy - bit of an understatement IMO.

M

[JBmurc]

-With the way the price of oil's going PPP is an absolut screaming BUY -Once the cash is flowing into PPP's coffers so will the SP rise
Not selling 1 share under 30c

[Tok3n]

Someone sold their options for 6.5c on the NZX yesterday.

Thought that was a bit of a bargin.

[bermuda]

Something is going on which deserves an 'enquiry'.Huge volume and upwards rerating. Could this actually be a take-out?..or just a wise positioning.Pleased I didnt sell all my oppies.

[Tok3n]

Oil prices heading up and PPP is going to be a producer soon just in time to take advantage of those prices.

I doubt they will get a speeding ticket.

Whoever sold those options at 6.5c yesterday, must be kicking themselves today.

[digger]

Tok3n ,do not think your reason is sufficent to explaine the sudden rise to 30 cents. Most of what you have said is already expected by the market. Think bermuda is on to it----we need an explanation for this big rise as welcome as it is. I can not believe that this rise is as slow realisation of what the market has always known. Something is up.

[Tok3n]

Good point, especially seeing they had to recover some drill bits (hence possibly delay) and NZO isn't doing much at the moment.

If its takeover, who is a potential buyer? TAP? I doubt any of the JV partners in Tui, Hector etc would do a takeover.

[bermuda]

I have always thought AWE would take PPP out.AWE sure love their acreage in offshore Taranaki and with Eric Matthews on board they know all about PPP's other interests.

But....NZO are also looking for some lovely fillets to put into the PAN.

[bermuda]

$.4.1 million traded today on the ASX...so far

[FRED]

And ofcourse someone could have amassed a sizeable stake via the options without disclosure (yet)

F

[the machine]

It was unreal today watching the ppp & pppo moves.

At one stage there was a 2c gap between ppp and pppo plus excise price of 15c.

IMO following the buy report in the weekend press and yesterdays jump, then ppp is a hit with the day traders.

We did not partake as it means incurring a tax liability for this year ending June 30



Come July then will be interesting seeing the substantial shareholder notices.

M

[Onthemoney]

You thought yesterday was interesting watch today....

[Sharp737]

You know something Onthemoney?

[Onthemoney]

Check out the early sale this morning....

[Sharp737]

22.6 MILLION SHARES THROUGH!!! What the....????

[FRED]

How many shares do NOG have? Maybe they are dealing?

F

[Tok3n]

Wown they got them at a good price too

[Oceanbeach1]

NZO's May announcement stated:
PPP shares held: 43.8million
PPP options held: 19.5million

[FRED]

Yes a good price. Who sold but who purchased? Looks like the takeover action is nigh.

NZO sold to AWE is my quess(only)....and they did a deal on more acreage close to Tui.

F

[Sehnsucht888]

Announcement on the ASX made just after market that NZO did indeed sell them, but to who?

[shasta]

TAP has just over $100m cash at present, could be them?

[grumpy]

Well, the fact that NZO no longer have a 10% blocking stake
could open the way for some T/O action [:p]

[digger]

quote:Originally posted by Sehnsucht888

Announcement on the ASX made just after market that NZO did indeed sell them, but to who?


That is the right question,and the answer will most likely be soon coming. If they were sold to one party,then the buyer must become a substantial holder and we will get a release to the exchange. With 433 million shares it take 21.7 million to be more than 5% so the 22.6 million if sold to one party will require an stock exchange release. Also that assumes the other single party held nil before the recent purchase,so they could be well over 5%.

[FRED]

Digger

You are onto it however the plot thickens. Latest 3B with option conversion has 450 559 863 shares.....so still below 5%.

If there is no SSH notice tommorrow and considering recent volumes and upside...we have 2 suitors.

NOG will have sold to AWE. AWE srcip bid likely IMO.

F

[the machine]

quote:Originally posted by grumpy

Well, the fact that NZO no longer have a 10% blocking stake
could open the way for some T/O action [:p]

nzo now have ready cash to exercise their options @ either 17c nz or 15c au - the later will probably be the go.

thus nzo will regain their blocking stack if they want do.

daresay they sold to a friendly company/person.

M

[FRED]

Indeed but it raises the stakes significantly with another 5% odd holder.

F

[Tok3n]

ok, lets hope for 2 interested parties so we can into a bidding war (I thought the Hector drill was going to be entertaining enough :) ).

[FRED]

Drill thrill.

With this one it is both drill and takeover thrill.

Hold on to your nads.

Turbins

F

[soletrader]

I get a Tradingroom portfolio update from Fairfax daily at 1910 UK time for PPP Aus opening prices; but not today yet. Why is that?

[Mr Tommy]

SSHO: PPP: FORM 604 - NOTICE OF CHANGE IN SUBSTANTIAL SHAREHOLDING

Details of Holder
Name: Tattersfield Group

Class of Securities: Ordinary Shares

Person's Vote: 52,844,752
Voting Power: 12.2%

[Mr Tommy]

Last year annual report has Allan Walker Tattersfield as holding 15m shares, 3.5%, so hes been buying up a few !
Searched internet, his name comes up from Justice Dept as a licensed second hand dealer.
Must be lots of money in other peoples junk.

[whatsup]

Tatts ,try Walker & Hall Ltd , one of Auckland's & Kings College top 40, a very successful investor!

[Sharp737]

Looks like if you want to get a good holding in PPP, you can get that by buying the options at A9c or NZ10c with heads at A26c or NZ28-30c (small payment down now and less brokerage) and then exercise them before end of the month.
The saving could be anything from 1 to 2 cents a share plus the saving on brokerage.
One friend of mine was talking about borrowing heaps to buy into PPP. Now that is risky at any time but I can see why he wants to. No way is this share price going to stay at these levels. We have a good one here barring a worldwide disaster. Good fortune to you longs and new entries!
Sharp

[grumpy]

Sharpie,
yes, quite unbelievable that people would buy PPP at 30c when they
could buy them for 27.5c via PPPOA, a 8.3% saving.

Efficient markets? (Where are the arbitrageurs closing the gap?)
Rational investors???
Hahahahahaha

[manxman]

Grumpy, Sharpie
Even in Sydney where trading volumes are much higher there is a 2 cent anomaly between the options at 9.5c and the heads at 26.5c. The heads can't be showing their true value with all these cheap options lying on the floor. Must be a lot of punters with options who don't want to stump up the cash to exercise them.
Mx

[Sharp737]

Yeah, think you're right there manxman.

7M shares through before market even opened @ 30c

http://www.directbroking.co.nz/directtrade/dynamic/quote.aspx?QQE=NZSE&QQSC=ppp

[Mr Tommy]

That 7m shares went thru at 25c. Wonder if NZO dumping a few more.

[Sharp737]

Yes, you could be right. 25c, not 30c.
But looking at the herald article, it is very bullish. Average over 1st year @ 30,000 bbl per day and work that out at say $78US bbl (Tapis) @ NZ$103 per bbl = approx. $113M gross. Now you are talking some real money $$$$$.
Then if Hector or Taranui or Tieke sidetrack or any other there comes in, it really is "roll out the barrel!" :-)

Sharp

[Mr Tommy]

Yep and short term this must be better for PPP than NZO.
PPP has market cap of $135m and NZO is $274m and yet their shares of Tui are 10% and 12.5%, and for Hector 14% and 19% respectively.

So all those oil dollars should push PPP up more than NZO once they start flowing.

[Tok3n]

R PPP thinking about paying out dividends? (like NZO r?)

Would prefer more money spent on getting permits in Taranaki though.

[Sharp737]

Nice article for NZOG but includes Tui development and Hector and Taranui exploration wells:

http://www.rigzone.com/news/article.asp?a_id=43871

Wellington-based New Zealand Oil & Gas Ltd is currently planning four petroleum exploration targets on top of its involvement in the two offshore oil and gas projects Tui and Kupe.

NZOG says in its half-year report to December 31, 2006, that the likely first exploration well to be drilled after the Tui field installation is complete will be the Hector-1 exploration well in PEP 38 483 in which NZOG has a 18.9% interest.

The Hector prospect is a dip-closed structure at the Kapuni-C level that has potential recoverable oil of 50-60 million barrels as mapped on the 3D seismic data set. Upside exists if the closure is filled to spill point, in which case the oil-bearing reservoir would extend beyond the area imaged by the 3D survey.
The NZOG report says further low-relief structures exist in the vicinity of the Hector prospect and provide additional potential in this permit if the Hector-1 exploration well is successful. Hector-1 is located approximately 70 kilometers southwest of the Tui Area Development in a water depth of 170 meters.

The Taranui-1 well in the Tui PMP 38158 field area in which NZOG holds a 12.5% interest will be drilled in the Taranui prospect approximately 15 kilometers northeast of Tui.

This prospect contains Kapuni F-sand reservoir targets similar to those discovered in the Tui area oil fields and has a potential of 5 to 15 million barrels of recoverable oil. Taranui-1 is scheduled to be drilled following the Hector exploration well in PEP 38 483. A discovery at Taranui could be tied back to the FPSO.

On the north Taranaki coast in PEP 38 729 a decision to drill an exploration well on either the Felix or Opito structure will be made in the first half of 2007. Technical evaluations are ongoing in the two prospects where the primary reservoir target is the Mangahewa Formation at the top of the Eocene Kapuni Group. NZOG has a 75% interest in the permit.

A transition zone seismic survey was successfully completed in August 2006. The data were recorded across the surf and beach zone to fill the gap between the existing land and marine seismic surveys. Initial processing results are in line with expectations.

At the Momoho prospect (originally named Stent) approximately 5 kilometers southeast of the Kupe field development area in PML 38 146, the primary reservoir target is the Farewell Formation as encountered in the Kupe field and surrounding discovery wells. NZOG has a 15% interest in the Kupe field.

The prospect is bounded by the Kupe South-4 gas discovery well to the north and the Kupe South-5 oil discovery well to the south, increasing the likelihood of hydrocarbon charge of oil and/or gas. The Kupe joint venture is currently considering using one of the option slots with the Ensco 107 jackup drilling rig to drill the Momoho prospect.

Sharp

[Mr Tommy]

Can anyone explain why PPP are selling at 29c, and PPPOA at 10c, yet the conversion is only NZ 17c.
So sell your PPP, buy some PPP0A, pay the 17c in a few weeks, and you are 2c better off.
Am I missing something?

[digger]

quote:Originally posted by Mr Tommy

Can anyone explain why PPP are selling at 29c, and PPPOA at 10c, yet the conversion is only NZ 17c.
So sell your PPP, buy some PPP0A, pay the 17c in a few weeks, and you are 2c better off.
Am I missing something?


Your missing an understanding of the general lack of knoledge the public has of options and how they work. As a broker told me about 20 or more years ago,options and how they work are just not for everyone. This incredable lack of understanding gets even more acute when you move out of the resorce sector.
Alternatively it is a chance to make easy money for those that do have a feel for options.
Will be converting all my PPP options.

[Mr Tommy]

Digger,
I thought it was easy money, so I actually did this today, but was wondering what I had missed.

The old saying "if it sounds too good to be true" obviously doesnt apply in this case.

[Sharp737]

Yes, and what's going to come next?
The good oil flowing - yes! With huge cash coming in with the first year at average 30,000 bbl per day and with PPP's 10% interest @ some $US78 bbl (Tapis), we are looking at a huge cash inflow.
And, Hector and Taranui to follow.
But, what is extremely interesting to know is the NZOG has been selling of it's stake in PPP (many to Mr Tattersfield of PPP). So what's going on there? Yes, they do still have options they are going to exercise but the very fact they have been selling off large bundles of PPP shares and are no longer a substantial holder begs this question:
Is PPP now a prime takeover target for AWE or TAP? PPP must be tempting now, very very tempting.
But DYOR
Sharp

[Sharp737]

And further to this thought about NZOG selling it's PPP shares:
NZOG has finally made this very clear signal to all and that is that it is no longer really interested in PPP as it was in the very early years when in my view, they definitely had a takeover in mind (years ago when they had nearly 60% stake). But the signal now leaves to me no doubt that the axe has been taken to nearly all the ropes still holding it to PPP. Good move I think but now (Mr Salisbury?), it's anyone's guess as to what is going to happen too PPP. Takeover must be viable now and my thoughts are on AWE. And the possiblility that NZOG are going to sell the rest of their PPP's is definitely there in my view....we'll soon see eh. At the right price of course!
But DYOR
Sharp

[bk]

Indeed PPP must now be a prime takeover target. But what I don't get - why is NZO selling? Surely they must believe in the Tui project, so PPP shares would be a good investment in the short term. Selling 7M of them at 25 cents seems to be throwing money away. Why? I've asked the question on the NZO thread, but no-one has come up with an answer. Any conspirace theorists out here?

[bk]

quote:Originally posted by Sharp737

And further to this thought about NZOG selling it's PPP shares:
NZOG has finally made this very clear signal to all and that is that it is no longer really interested in PPP as it was in the very early years when in my view, they definitely had a takeover in mind (years ago when they had nearly 60% stake). But the signal now leaves to me no doubt that the axe has been taken to nearly all the ropes still holding it to PPP. Good move I think but now (Mr Salisbury?), it's anyone's guess as to what is going to happen too PPP. Takeover must be viable now and my thoughts are on AWE. And the possiblility that NZOG are going to sell the rest of their PPP's is definitely there in my view....we'll soon see eh. At the right price of course!
But DYOR
Sharp

Sorry, somehow missed this response. Why give AWE more percentage - or is there a backroom deal done perhaps?

[Sharp737]

Yes, that's what I am wondering...."wheels within wheels" perhaps.
One thing is for sure...Mr Tattersfield has been building up BIG. And he's no dummy...

[digger]

Sharp737 and bk,good discussion and very probable.
My scenario would have it something like this. Over many decades people with long public records create there own image,even when they my not agree with the outcome. TR certaintly has a blocking image with the brokers and even when GPG managed to break throw with[forget the name a gold company],gpg turned out the worst off.TR always arranges the companies in a defensive nature so takovers are stuffed so they never get underway. Hence the brokers do not seem to like TR as it is in there fininical interest to keep the takeover kettle boiling. If PPP is to have successful large sharetrading leading to takeover it would be in everones interest for TR to step aside.Now it is just my feeling but most likely TR is very well aware of this and certainly is aware of the revenue growth explosion about to happen. He has a large personal holding as does his wife i understand,so maybe they are looking for retirement monies. Remember Tr is even older than me,so you can not go on forever.
Then again i could be hopelessly wide of the mark and in fact it is NZO who needs the money, then leaving the outcome to market forces to sort out.
I have always felt that PPP would some day get taken over. Soon i suspect.

[I.T.Ancient]

What with speculation over the price of oil and the forthcoming drilling program, an awfully high bid would be needed to shake out the number of holders required for a take over.

I think this is just about NZO not having sufficient free cash to exercise it's options. Much the same reason that smaller PPPOA holders have sold on market thus making PPPOA trade at a discount.

[bk]

quote:Originally posted by I.T.Ancient

What with speculation over the price of oil and the forthcoming drilling program, an awfully high bid would be needed to shake out the number of holders required for a take over.

I think this is just about NZO not having sufficient free cash to exercise it's options. Much the same reason that smaller PPPOA holders have sold on market thus making PPPOA trade at a discount.

That is indeed another, albeit less exciting, possibility. In fact, the money they received for the shares sold would more or less equate the money required to exercise the amount of options they hold, so you me be right there. There goes the conspiracy . . .

[Sharp737]

I have been looking at the holdings of PPP shares and options and yes, NZOG still have a blocking stake from what I can make of it once they exercise their options. As as the 2006 annual report, NOG owned some 32.8M PPP shares of which they have sold 7M + another 5M? which by my take takes them to about 22.8M shares out of 433M total (excluding options to be exercised).
NOG have 27.4M options to be exercised and assuming that they exercise them all will give them a rough total of some 50M PPP shares. This seems to indicate that yes, along with Mr Tattersfields large amount (15.26M PPPs at the time of the 2006 report PLUS another 7M plus how many other ?) which equates to quite a large stake together.
HOWEVER, I still believe that PPP could be taken over at the right price and the reason is quite simple:
PPP DO NOT HAVE ANY SIGNIFICANT STAKE IN NZOG!
In years past, Tony Radford has had companies with cross shareholdings for protection against any takeovers and it has worked well. But there doesn't appear to be any reason why to hold PPP "at any cost" now. I could be wrong but that's how I see it.
DYOR of course

Sharp

[waaihoek]

.
Sharpie,

I still have newspaper clippings from way back complaining about Radfords cross holdings in his various mining / oil companies ....

The low price of gold wrecked the empire along with a nasty back stab at Waihi .... plus lack of performance of the gold treatment plant at Beaconsfield.

Anyway NZOG/PPP survived attacks from mendacious GPG sharks and now at last long suffering invetors are starting to get some payback !!!!!

(GPG managed to get hold of Mineral Resources and the gold price promptly collapsed and GPG lost a huge bundle .... serve em right)

W

[bermuda]

Sharp 737
Thanks for that. That is what I have been saying also. NZO, after exercising their options will still have a blocking 10% of PPP.
I doubt if they would sell until after Hector and Taranui.
Weather getting colder but oil getting hotter.

[peterb]

PPP at 26c on NZX looks like a bargain?

[trackers]

quote:Originally posted by peterb

PPP at 26c on NZX looks like a bargain?


Yep.

[Mr Tommy]

Probably just last minute pressure from people having to fund their NZ 17c options this week.

I flicked all my PPP holding, and bought the same number of PPPOA, benefitting from the 1.5c/share differnce over the last week.

[Mr Tommy]

Wonder who sold their 8 million options this morning, was it NOG?

[digger]

quote:Originally posted by Mr Tommy

Wonder who sold their 8 million options this morning, was it NOG?


Wonder who bought 8 million options today? was it Tattersfield??

[Tok3n]

Nice spike end of the day for PPP on the ASX

Tuesday is report day right?

Hope everything is ok (bad weather lately)

[jdg]

9,000,000 sold off market in Aus at A$.205
what's up?

[digger]

PPP has just hit 32 so i had better go off here and get my half million options converted before they become worthless. Bye.

[trackers]

quote:Originally posted by digger

PPP has just hit 32 so i had better go off here and get my half million options converted before they become worthless. Bye.


Thats pretty awesome digger, well done - I was having a bit of a cry in my milk this morning that I didn't have the funds to pick up some ppp at 27c yesterday...oh well, such is life

[Sharp737]

Yup, She's starting to blow....and this is just the start! And have just sent in my last cheque for my options also. $$$$$$ for jam. This is going to be an awesome investment short to medium term at least! IMO of course.

Sharp

[JBmurc]

Glad I brought more at 25.5 ASX
My largest holding-185,450 PPP
looking forward to the next yr my targets 50c+
Oil's trending higher-massive cash flows

[KentBrockman]

So with options out of the way, recent gains, and rumours of corporate activity, just what is the fair value of PPP?

The only thing reasonably sure is Tui. Assuming a minor resource upgrade to 30mmbbl and a profit of A$30 per barrel (quite a conservative assumption, as Tui was supposed to be economical already at a price of US$45) that gives 90mil, thus 15cps (assuming most options were exercized).

It appears that Maitland may be developed, which TAP quotes as having 260PJ, plus 21bbl of condensate per mmscf, thus 5.5 mmbbl. PPP has 10%. According to Santos' latest presentation the wholesale value for gas in Western Australia is A$5/GJ. Assuming that development costs would not be too outrageous (due to the largely existing infrastructure close by) it may be reasonable to estimate a one dollar profit per GJ? In which case the value for PPP would be A$26mill, plus their share of the light oil at 0.55mmbbl * 30=A$16mill, all up for Maitland 7cps.

Then there is the cash from the option conversion, 24mill, or 4cps and lets throw in a couple of cents for any funds from the Volant takeover (or has that already been accounted for?) and remaining stranded resources (e.g. Corvus, Sage, Tusk, etc) which may have future potential if either prices continue to rise or discoveries are made nearby.

Adds up to 28cents. But that doesn't include any potential discovery in Hector, Taranui, Toke etc.

Adding some risk adjusted cents to this valuation the fair value of PPP seems to be in the early 30s.

So I think any successful takeover would have to be well over 40 cents based on this pre Hector calculation. (though it may be already too late for a takeover prior to Hector result)

[FRED]

KentBrockman

Very good back of envelope calcs. The .15cents for Tui is used by others but must be starting to become redundant with near term production (plus takeoff rate) and Tapis figures.

One publication I subscribe too has new AWE figuers on HECTOR (1.4 BILLION RECOVERABLE) being worth $6.5 per share. And risk adjusted at about A$.5O.

So all good. Yes?

F

[Tok3n]

Do they mean the whole hector area, or just the first well that they will be drilling?

[Sharp737]

To Fred, yes, very good potentially for Hector. And yes, it must mean Hector 1 & 2 combined for what they are talking about. Wow, over a billion barrels potentially is very bullish but NOG are extremely conservative here. Probably a good thing too.

But as concerns a Tui resource upgrade, the JV cannot finalise any updated calculations until the Pateke development well has been completed. There may or may not be more there as well, hopefully more. Now it might only be the weather that holds things up a bit with the final tying in to the FPSO to get the oil flowing. Next few weeks is fine by me and I know the weather down Taranki is rough at the moment.

Sharp

[Sharp737]

PPP A29c in Oz today....nice....

[Onthemoney]

I am going to grab a few up to 35 tomorrow

[Mr Tommy]

quote:Originally posted by Onthemoney

I am going to grab a few up to 35 tomorrow


Well you may be right there, buy depth is 921000, but only 218000 for sale so maybe you will be paying 35c soon.
Hopefully we will hear some good progress on Pateke today, and Tui production any day now.

[trackers]

up 10% today, 32/33.... gee whiz..


and today should be weekly progress report day

[bk]

quote:Originally posted by Onthemoney

I am going to grab a few up to 35 tomorrow

no news yet, but volumes increase, and share price too.

PPP up 3 to 33, and NZO 2 down to 109

whats up??

[jdg]

if tui comes on stream without any hiccups, i would much rather be in ppp than nzo. not to mention hector...

[trackers]

quote:Originally posted by jdg

if tui comes on stream without any hiccups, i would much rather be in ppp than nzo. not to mention hector...


I really like your reasoning....

oh wait

[bk]

quote:Originally posted by jdg

if tui comes on stream without any hiccups, i would much rather be in ppp than nzo. not to mention hector...

I agree, but I wondered why NZO was down while the only news was improved progress on the Pike tunnel. However, NZO now came back and is in fact 1 up to 112. Go NZO, go PPP.

Still waiting for a decent drilling progress report on Tui

[trackers]

Tui Development Drilling update

Pan Pacific Petroleum NL ("PPP") reports that at 0600 hours today, Pateke-3H ST1 well was drilling ahead at a measured depth of 3250 metres. During the week, casing was successfully set and cemented to a depth of 3244 metres. Progress for the week was 371 metres.

The Pateke-3H well is the fourth and final well in the Tui Area development drilling programme. Due to the recent inclement weather in the offshore Taranaki basin, first oil production is now expected from the development in July, 2007. When fully commissioned, a production rate peaking at 50,000 barrels/day is anticipated from the project.

After completion of the development drilling programme, the Ocean Patriot rig will commence the exploration campaign, which will include the drilling of the Hector and Taranui prospects.

The Tui Area Development is located within PMP 38158, in the Taranaki basin, approximately 50 kilometres offshore of the west coast of the North Island of New Zealand.

[jdg]

quote:Originally posted by trackers


quote:Originally posted by jdg

if tui comes on stream without any hiccups, i would much rather be in ppp than nzo. not to mention hector...


I really like your reasoning....

oh wait


back-up the bus. the only point i'm trying to make is that i'm unsurprised if the fortunes of ppp track better than nzo. sure, they both have tui but even the most avid nogger would struggle to say pike has had a smooth run. moreover, those wanting to punt on tui and hector are much more inclined to go ppp - hence a much more favourable run of late.

[bermuda]

jdq,
I can understand your sentiment and I hope that all 3 companies do well ( NZO,PPP,AWE ).I do hold PPP and NZO

PPP will positively explode on any Hector success as will NZO and AWE but perhaps with a slightly smaller bang.But even the small bang is going to be BIG.

However,I am not prepared to sell down NZO to buy PPP as imho NZO is a rock solid investment which is going to earn more than $100 million per annum for the next 15-20 years regardless of whether Hector or Taranui come in.

Most investors are unaware of these staggering revenues which also have excellent upside at Kupe and Pike and of course further Taranaki oil drilling.

NZO shareholders have waited patiently for 25 years for these rewards

[jdg]

hey bermuda,
my comments are largely focused on the short term. i like nzo, but the company has a habit of making me nervous. (although with mr radford in charge, ppp is like a satellite of nzo). and you are right, nzo may prove rock solid - three projects does add safety in diversity. if tui falters and hector come up dry, ppp looks rather ordinary... but, again, in the run up to first oil (and hector spud) I like ppp.
cheers,
-j

[bermuda]

jdq,
Gonna be a great month! Full of Thrill and Drill plus PRODUCTION !!!
Hope Aunty Helen gets a chopper trip out to Tui.

[jdg]

yip, i certainly think it's a slam dunk. and am quite prepared to be pardoned if i'm wrong.

[Mr Tommy]

Interesting this morning, nearly 600,000 PPP sold which are flagged as 'international', most at 33.4c.
Then I checked out ASX and the opening buy price is higher than the sell price.
Someone in Oz must be keen to get them.

[bermuda]

Mr Tommy,
PPP.asx closed at 30 last night and the pre bid this morning is 8000 at 30.5 Nothing to get excited about.

[Mr Tommy]

Bermuda,
how can I not be excited !
I got to buy some more PPP back in late 2005 for A10c (rights issue), and they gave me a free option with each new share.
I then had to pay NZ 17c last week to convert my free options.
They are now trading at 33c, pretty good returns.

[JBmurc]

PPP at 31c on a strong buying on open mid 30's should be reach this week imho now thats exciting

[Mr Tommy]

With the recent disclosures, the 2 directors :
Tomkinson holds 48 million or about 10%
Tattersfield holds 65 million or about 13%

Shareprice now hitting 35c, got to wonder why NOG sold off its share at 25c just a few weeks back.

[duncan macgregor]

quote:Originally posted by Mr Tommy

With the recent disclosures, the 2 directors :
Tomkinson holds 48 million or about 10%
Tattersfield holds 65 million or about 13%

Shareprice now hitting 35c, got to wonder why NOG sold off its share at 25c just a few weeks back.
Because they wouldnt know sh*t from clay. I thought that there must be a downside that we didnt know about but the only downside is NZO management. [V][V]Macdunk

[Sharp737]

I think NOG needed the cash to exercise their huge number of options and still maintain at least 10% control of PPP. And of course, selling a 'mate' helps.

Sharp

[jdg]

a person on another formum has said that intersuisse has put out a buy reccomendation on ppp this morning with the heading "Buy for imminent start to huge cash flows from Tui oil".
anyone seen it?

[KentBrockman]

http://www.intersuisse.com.au/files/Morning%20Notes.pdf

Check out page 2

[jdg]

thanks, kent. positive affirmation. ppp has had such a good run, it just seemed to keep going and going. and you would have to think it will gain an extra set of legs if oil flows smoothly.

[corporateraider]

And the trading price in Oz is encouraging

[Sharp737]

Check out 'dolor' on this forum....pretty bullish stuff if all goes well....

http://www.sharescene.com/index.php?showtopic=747&hl=

Sharp

[JBmurc]

Yeah sure is--

Hector's potential which includes Hector South is so huge that a positive oil strike within the next 6 weeks is going to send the SP into stratopheric levels. Strachan predicts $6 a share with PPP having the best leverage of the three listed companies involved.

-If PPP does hit $6 I'll have over $1m AUD invested in PPP [8D]

[corporateraider]

Yes JBMurc I accept that the most upside for any of the shares is indeed with ppp, but surely the best return in the event of a strike lies with nogod?

[grumpy]

Hi,
FNARENA have posted a story about PPP, unfortunately only for subscribers:

[This article is for members only]
Pan Pacific Offers The Best Leverage To Tui Production
FN Arena News - July 05 2007
With the Tui oil field about to commence production Pan Pacific Petroleum will enjoy strong cash flow, while the Hector project adds exploration upside.

Can somebody who has full access to this please post a summary here??
Thx

[soltrader]

quote:Originally posted by JBmurc

Yeah sure is--

Hector's potential which includes Hector South is so huge that a positive oil strike within the next 6 weeks is going to send the SP into stratopheric levels. Strachan predicts $6 a share with PPP having the best leverage of the three listed companies involved.

-If PPP does hit $6 I'll have over $1m AUD invested in PPP [8D]


Hi JBmurc

I'm a newbie to the NZ sharemarket, and I bought into PPP, NZO, and have a firm allocation for PRC. I also have a few non-oilers.

I intend to top-up my investments when I get some money in a few months' time. So, do you reckon PPP is the one to buy into? Of course, being a penny stock (so to speak), it appears to give a better return on investment, and also may have a lot of room to grow. But is there anything else about PPP that is lacking in, say NZO?

Thanks

[Woody51]

In two months a lot will have changed. + $$$ we hope.

You have two stocks leveraged to production at Tui and any further drilling success. Sit back and enjoy the ride and worry about two months in two months.

[Woody51]

Just to correct the record, Peter Strachan didn't actually say say that PPP had the best leverage of the three listed companies involved. Others may deduce that, but he didn't say it.

If Hector is a winner AWE, NZO and PPP will all be big winners. If it is a duster, the little fish will sink the deepest!

PPP have run strongly, doubling in recent months. I like NZOO in terms of leverage. Having said that, I would love bucket loads of all three stocks.

[JBmurc]

Both PPP & NZO are great investments personal I believe PPP will be taken over AWE or TAP or merge with NZO before they would reach a $1+ SP
I do hope I'm wrong and the major holders block any takeover

Yeah the NZO opts are even better leverage on a hector success;)

- be dreaming of $1,000,000 AUD beside PPP on my portfilo till hectors drilled & tested

[Woody51]

Anyway JB, they are exciting times for all.

Let's hope those typhoons didn't cause any hiccups offshore. Perhaps the Taranaki Basin is becoming the new Gulf of Mexico. That's global warming for you haaa.

[Snow Leopard]

Your wise old Uncle Paper Tiger here

Experience tells me that posters to this thread, and I see that there are some recent arrivals, may be getting carried a little carried away here.
Now I have a vested interest in Tui, Hector et al succeeding, but consider your timeframe the potential risks and the potential rewards and the probabilities of assorted outcomes.

With best wishes
Paper Tiger

[the machine]

quote:Originally posted by Paper Tiger

Your wise old Uncle Paper Tiger here

Experience tells me that posters to this thread, and I see that there are some recent arrivals, may be getting carried a little carried away here.
Now I have a vested interest in Tui, Hector et al succeeding, but consider your timeframe the potential risks and the potential rewards and the probabilities of assorted outcomes.

With best wishes
Paper Tiger


PT, been waiting over 20 years for PPP to come good.

M

[Snow Leopard]

quote:Originally posted by the machine

PT, been waiting over 20 years for PPP to come good.

M

You have my sympathy ;)

[manxman]

I was happily counting my chickens when a tiger came and ate them. I thought tigers ate tuna sandwiches.

[Tok3n]

Noticed on Stockness Monster that there are "short sales"

r people being bearish and shorting PPP?,

[JBmurc]

Only the braindead would short PPP

[jdg]

i wonder how significantly the wild weather in taranaki has impacted on drilling. maybe another sluggish week with the drill?

[peterb]

Damnit. Only 2 weeks ago I commented how PPP looked cheap on the nzx at 26c.. up to 37c on the NZX today, that would have been a sweet gain for 2 weeks... :(

[jdg]

it certainly has been a mint run. one gets the feeling that even a flicker of good news will give it a surge.

[jdg]

adverse weather didn't seem to have too much effect. pretty good drilling progress for the week. we're getting closer and closer...

[the machine]

sold 7,000 ppp today @.36 au - these were stuck in an odd a/c with another stock broker and we wanted to tidy it up.

mostly bought @ 10c, so a tidy profit.

have put some more on offer @ 40c au, again bought at 10c au.

assuming sold in next week then will leave me with just over 120,000, some dating back a very long time.

1st oil should see ppp well past 40c au, maybe up to 50c au

more than enough to enjoy the coming ride

M

disc awe nzo nzoo ppp

[Sharp737]

Now 38c in Oz, 42c in NZ.... :D

[jdg]

i sold just less than half my holding a couple of days ago at 34c in oz. bought between 15 and 16.5. still bullish but just part of a general sell down. it's been an excellent year and i'm locking in some profits. arguably i sold a little early (i was planning on doing so around hector spud) but wanted a little insurance against any tui start up problems. my remaining stock i'll hold on the hope of a hector jackpot.

[NOCASH]

is it too late to buy in ppp at 40cents nzd ? to make some short term profit?

[Onthemoney]

I will just get my crystal ball out....

[digger]

quote:Originally posted by NOCASH

is it too late to buy in ppp at 40cents nzd ? to make some short term profit?


Nocash,welcolme back but i see you have the same ring to your questions.The answer is simple---no one knows. Yet a good feee to get a handle on others thinking is to see if they are selling.I have a truck load and none are for sale,therefor i must think the price will rise in the future----there is little point in holding on to a share unless you have good reason to believe something about what they are doing will rerate them upward in the public eye.
About 96% of my holdings are in oil,would be 100% but i failed or asked too much for a now small remaining number of SLG's.Sometime in the future i will sell out of SLG as while the wheel boat is a good idea it chews up hydrocarbons and that is where i think a good % of monies should be placed.Oil effects everything else. There are few things more important,but food is one of them,which in itself heavily tied up with oil.
So my thinking for you Nocash is into oil and stay the distance.If you do not want the NZ ones try AWE or otherwise Duncan posts have given good advise on AUS oilers.

[port hills]

Digger I think you may have some money tied up in coal as well.;)

[JBmurc]

Well I'm glad I invested into PPP at 15c(ASX) rather than NZO at 80c(ASX) which don't get me wrong is a great company,but purely on current paper profits PPP is up 136% to NZO's 30%ish both rising on the back of the same Tui development

[jdg]

i recall reading that the company doing the development drilling (was that prosafe?) said that tui was comparatively straight forward. does anybody else remember that?

[Tok3n]

Well its more straight forward then Maari (also in the Taranaki)

PPP nearly down by 10% today on the ASX

Reaching good top up levels?

[jdg]

depends on your appetite for risk. big upside if start up is trouble free. HUGE if trouble free and hector come in.

[bermuda]

I spoke at length to the Schlumberger people who despite my early increduality as to what they had to do....assured me that this particular TUI project rated about 2 out of 10 in terms of difficulty with 10 being the hardest.
And so it seems but they did strike a bit of trouble with the last hole and the weather has not been crash hot to say the least.And the services vessel, the 'Rockwater' blew an engine which cost them almost 2 weeks.
But overall a job well done...well almost well done.

[jdg]

thanks for that, bermuda. that's encouraging.
for me, start up problems are the only real downside risk (and even at 2 out of 10, they will always exist).
but if oil flows as planned, then it's just about upside - potential for upgrade at tui and the exploration of hector and taranui.
an upgrade or a strike at taranui would be rather sweet, but hector - well, sharetrader will party like it's macdunk's birthday.

[jdg]

gee tok3n, i was a bit flippant today. would have been a pretty good trade... aus market didn't like the brief sell off today.

[Tok3n]

lol

my order didn't get hit :(

I've been holding since PPP gave those free options out in a SPP so never mind.

[boysy]

sorry about being so ignorant but do people think a TUI upgrade has been factored into PPP share price yet ?

[jdg]

i think there's little doubt that the sp would be given a fair nudge by a reserves upgrade. sentiment alone would push it.

[Sharp737]

I just want to see some great news come out and good TV coverage on NZ's largest offshore oil field on stream with good production right from the start....Is that too much to ask? :D

[Tok3n]

Looks like support at 35c for a wee while while they hook up the pipes

Are you guys still holding?

[JBmurc]

quote:Originally posted by Tok3n

Looks like support at 35c for a wee while while they hook up the pipes

Are you guys still holding?


sure am so much upside yet to come might sell a few if it hits 50c

[boysy]

sorry about my ignorance but what stake does PPP have in hector ? and is it more than NZO ?

[Sharp737]

PPP has around the 14% of Hector, NOG has around 19%

[Tok3n]

33c on the ASX

Hope there's a good progress report tommorrow.