Pan Pacific Petroleum Nl (PPP)

[Onthemoney]

I have taken a breather on this share and have been selling down over the past week. Look to get back in again soon.

[Nitaa]

Looks like a good decision there OTM. I am holding as long as possible. Although a nervous time with Tui about to come on stream, the down side seems limited at the moment.

I must say, im getting a little itchy waithing for the announcement to come on saying...we're pumping it...

[jdg]

i would liked to have seen a little more info in the release. ok, so we've finished drilling, now what? a few more specifics would have been good; not least of which is, when's the oil coming?

[boysy]

Exactly NZO release was just as informative lol. some sort of timeframe would be helpful :)

[Tok3n]

http://www.sharechat.co.nz/news/scnews/article.php/7373d560

[jdg]

well, AWE still said by the end of the month, so i guess we're going to hear something pretty damn soon. it's going to be an action-packed month or so. sure as hell the price wont go sideways.

[jdg]

(thanks for the link, tok3n. NZO CEO says he's confident of oil flowing by the end of the month. thank goodness he didn't say a couple of weeks...sorry noggers, couldn't resist the stab!)

[kissssik]

7 days and counting, should help the saggy share price

[jdg]

could we have timed this any better with the price of oil?

[JBmurc]

OIL $77 all time highs only days away
NZD/USD also in PPP favour

Massive profits coming in soon ;)

[jdg]

the high dollar may have been in our favour to this point (building the facilities etc), but now we're about to actually sell the stuff, we'd be better served by the nz dollar falling away. still, with the oil price as high as it is, we can afford to give a bit away to the exchange rate. Moreover, over the life of tui i think the price of oil will remain high, i don't think the same of the x-rate. again, the story is all good.

[jdg]

well, just two days until the end of the month. therefore, we should expect an announcement today or tomorrow. a shame it's not a great market environment to be releasing the news that will define the company. still, we've had so much in our favour, it's difficult to complain. bring on the oil!

[jdg]

with thanks to kisssic and zorba on nzo thread...

NZO 31/07/2007

REL: 1007 HRS New Zealand Oil and Gas Limited

MINE: NZO: NZOG's Tui First Oil Flowing

New Zealand Oil & Gas Ltd ("NZOG") reports that Tui first oil flowed
overnight. This is the culmination of an intensive fast tracked project to
bring the Tui oilfields into production, only three years after their
discovery.

The Tui oilfields are located 50 kilometres offshore in the Taranaki Basin.
Initial production is anticipated to ramp up to 50,000 barrels of oil per day
from 2P reserves (proved and probable) estimated at 27.9 million barrels of
oil. NZOG's 12.5% share of the development gives the company 3.5 million
barrels of oil over the project life, 30% of which will be recovered in the
next 12 months. The first three shipments of oil have already been sold,
benchmarked against the Tapis crude oil price.

NZOG CEO David Salisbury said "Tui is the first of our three current
development projects to come to fruition and the oil revenues will give us a
solid platform to pursue our growth strategy."

NZOG's three major development projects are Tui oil, Kupe gas/oil and Pike
River coal.
End CA:00151445 For:NZO Type:MINE Time:2007-07-31:10:07:57

[jdg]

very muted response by the market. it's a little like getting exactly what you wanted for christmas but not having any batteries...

still, i guess the fact it is flowing is not as important as actual flow rates and the remapping of the field for possible upgrades.

still, certainly a great milestone.

more news to come but so far so good. next stop - hector spud.

[jdg]

...well, that didn't take long...hector at 1500m. big day for news.

[kissssik]

Hey either way guys we are on to a winner and if Hector comes in...."O" baby if your a blondee (and not hairy) watch out.

Disc 200000 + oppies Nzood
30,000 CFD's aver .96

[Tok3n]

Wow, lots of people dumping this stock

Hope they release some flow rates soon to ease the market.

[jdg]

nothing to worry about, in my view. sp being dragged down by the current market sentiment which is a bit dour, and people not wanting to risk the downside of a dry hector.

sure as hell it's going to move quickly on news. but if flow rates prove ok, the downside is limited. (plus reasonable chance of a reserves upgrade)

of course it's the upside of hector that's keeping me in the game – huge gains to be made on a strike. a gamble, for sure, but that's what makes it fun.

for those religious sharetraders among us, i'd appreciate it if you'd put in a few good words this week (water to wine is so last week, give him a crack at water to oil).

-j

[neopole]

its times like this you want the press secretary from LMP here, giving drilling updates Every morning and sprinkled with gas percentage and oil show, mud preasure readings etc on the long way down to 3500 meters...... lol

[jdg]

neopole my good man, you can keep LMP's press secretary, i'm sticking with my calls for help from a deity. certainly LMP's recent form suggests my way stands a significantly better chance...!

[Tok3n]

Ok, I'll be patient, maybe its margin traders leaving etc.

I've had PPP for nearly 2 years, can't believe it has first oil being pumped out in the worst market conditions for a while :(.

[Onthemoney]

Strange to see all partners shares down today though. Anyone know anyone on the rig.....

[Nitaa]

quote:Originally posted by Onthemoney

Strange to see all partners shares down today though. Anyone know anyone on the rig.....
I think its simply market sentiments coupled with a few investors a bit shy about hector.

[Onthemoney]

Yeah I am keeping a watch on this looking for re entry in a big way....

[Paint it Black]

I've also being following PPP awhile and have chipped in the odd $10K over the past fortnight between 37c and 40c while my ave price is still around 27c. I'm willing to keep buying but possibly should now wait until we are down to 33c with the Aussie market now at 31.5c. With the oil flowing and Hector just 2 weeks away surely there will be a lift while Hector drills closer to the 3000m. I think a strategy of buying big now and selling down half immediately before the Hector result is known has alot going for it. Surely there is a quick 20 - 30% to be made? Possibly place a series of downward bids from 36c - but then there is brokerage. Any thoughts?

[Onthemoney]

Be very careful with potentially negative news about Tui in the pipeline.

[Tok3n]

Really?

Oh dear.

[Paint it Black]

Thanks OntheMoney - have you some news you would be prepared to share?

[KentBrockman]

quote:Originally posted by Paint it Black

Thanks OntheMoney - have you some news you would be prepared to share?


It's obvious, really. If the expected flow rate of 50,000bopd would have been achieved, the JV would now be bragging about it.

It may still happen, but it has not so far.

[shasta]

KB

It will take some time to get up to max flow rate of 50,000bopd.

They always said it would be more like 30,000 & we havent been told the initial flow rates yet.

[jdg]

c'mon. i think the drop today has some simpler explanations than conspiracy theories. it's a risky investment in a very down day for markets around the world. there could well be bad news; start up problems are not unheard of in new oil projects. but equally true it can take a little time to stabilise the rates. I don’t think we can read into the lack of info just yet. let's wait for the news. until then we run the risk of sounding like henny penny.

[Oiler]

Hey guys lets not be too harsh on NZO or the JV partners at this "stressful" time.

The FPSO came from Singapore and the infrastructure was not complete when it sailed. There has been up to 120 workers working 24/7 out there in atrocious weather ever since it arrived in NZ waters.Some workers are hotbedding on board others helicoptered daily to get ready for first oil. The peg had been driven in the ground by NZO for "first oil by the end of July" and were determined to make it at what ever cost.

The introduction of hydrocarbons/commissioning/first oil is strictly controlled and is a slow and strictly controlled process which takes time. The plant needs to warm up, every flange, seal checked for leaks etc etc.... They will have most likely at this stage only cracked open one well and even then it will be only partially open until everyone is happy that they can go to the next phase of commissioning process. IMO it could be another 2 weeks before we get any real, steady production and positive flow rates. As much as the commissioning team will have planned and tried to cover every conceivable "wot if" there can still be something that wasnt covered off in the planning.

I am putting the small price drop down to the mood of the market in general and that there are still people shaking out of NZO/PPP because of the companies past record of missed dates etc...

I am in for the long haul. :D

[soletrader]

Thanks for that Oiler2. Helps to put things in perspective. Obvious really that it is not as simple as turning on the tap.

[Sharp737]

Yes, good post oiler2.

It is well known that you cannot turn the taps full on when starting up production of an oil field. And another reason to add is that the JV want to maximise the oil output over the longer term. If they just open the taps full open, then they run the risk of damaging the oil resevoirs and they won't do that. It will take some time to get up and running. They know what they are doing, lets just be patient.

The DOW bouncing back nicely will be good for the markets today I think. But apart from that, I would say that some enterprising people would have had some loans to repay, be on a margin call and HAD to sell and that would have driven the price down too. I know I have got caught out in the past and have HAD to sell and that has most times driven the price down. As we were expecting quite a lot of hooplah for when the oil started flowing and there hasn't been much at all, this has been somewhat disapointing to date and perhaps some were hanging out here and in Oz for that to happen but got caught. Don't know but that and selling some before Hector results come out could be some reasons too. Whatever, worldwide oil price is up, DOW is up and so should PPP be up today all going well :)

Sharp

[kissssik]

Yeah well said Oiler, better than some here trying to beat the price down, otherwise why would they bother following the thread.

[Onthemoney]

quote:Originally posted by kissssik

Yeah well said Oiler, better than some here trying to beat the price down, otherwise why would they bother following the thread.


Just waiting on a re-entry point....

[kissssik]

Thats Kool OTM, at least we know where your coming from.....its now or never IMO

[Onthemoney]

quote:Originally posted by kissssik

Thats Kool OTM, at least we know where your coming from.....its now or never IMO


I just want certainty that there are no issues with the oil.

[JBmurc]

I'm sure they announce the flow rates soon as for the current SP what an absolute joke (still glad to pick up more at .275 ASX),the sub 30c sellers will be gutted in time as they'll have to pay top prices to get backin , Once the marketplace stops with all the FEAR selling on sub-prime loans(how does this effect the oil price)
and hopefully some postive news on hector&tui flow rates surely investors will see the massive upside 10x
you really think the world's going stop needing Crude oil (no need for plastics,fuel,energy,fertilisers etc)Oil's price over the long term is only going one way as will PPP/NZO/AWE

[boysy]

I agree they have to get TUI right and at this stage thats to be conservative and get some acurate flow rates before running at the markets. This is an important project and im sure they just want to air on the side of caution until they have firm data.

[Onthemoney]

Am bracing for announcement tomorrow although markets over night may dictate early trade.

[jke_brown]

PPP will be a 1 bagger for me on my 5k investment when the sp is over 34C. Hope good news tomorrow.

Jackie

[Onthemoney]

Hey I am still looking for entry back in.... Still news to come.....

[JBmurc]

looks like-Hector will be a duster 700m to go no major HC's at primary
sold down to 24.5c on the ASX sold 20% of my holdings take some profits from my 15c purchase.
hoping Hector my surprise a deeper levels

[jonny5]

hmmm this one is taking a thorough beating...

[Onthemoney]

Tui - is no news good news, I don't think so.....
Well, Well, Well, Well is all I can say.....

[Sharp737]

Lets not be too hasty

http://www.nzog.net/investorsSection/NZOG%20Report%2024Nov05.pdf

Check out page 16 on Hector

And I think Tui is going to flow ok. We could be surprised.

Sharp

[jdg]

i'm out. sold on asx for A.24c. if tui flows to plan then the person who bought them off me will consider that cheap. but my gamble was on a hector. no oil. no interest. i sold just under half my holding about three weeks back at A.34c making more than 100 percent. and the rest this morning still did 50%. all-in-all ppp has treated me very well since march, but i'm off to (hopefully) greener pastures. good luck to holders.

-j

[JBmurc]

Hope the D-F sands are HC dense even another find like TUI would be brilliant at this stage with the PPP on the ASX down near 20% arrrrrgg

[jke_brown]

There goes my 1 bagger :(. I am cashed up now with PPP.

[Paint it Black]

Remember Tui has 4 wells which were all reported as 'meeting expectations' or 'successfully completed' -the oil is there in commercial quantities, AWE and Mitsui would not be continuing to invest if this was a dud - we therefore should remain positive that the output will come and the share price will recover. Hector is still drilling and Taranui is yet to come. The next Tuesday's bulletin may be much better. I'm going to hold until at least Taranui is well under way.

[Sharp737]

Yes, silly to sell now in my opinion. Depends on you situation but I would hold on for a while yet.

Tui will be good, the flows will be good as I cannot see the latest technology being wrong here. Might be teething problems on start-up etc but that is quite normal.

And of course, later this month Maitland appraisel well which will inlude a 500m horizontal section to test is to come. http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20070731/pdf/313q521gv41zzf.pdf

So it is extremely good buying at this point in time I would say :)

Sharp

[Paint it Black]

Looks like Hector has not come up with anything significant at 3,800m (see NZO's web site). A real pity as hopes were high and the benefits would have been big for NZ with such a big potential reservoir. The share price must have built this in however as it continues to recover slowly. Fingers crossed for Taranui but this reservoir is smaller than Tui.

[Sharp737]

No, Taranui is not smaller than Tui. It has potential for up to 15 million barrels.
I think you mean the Tui Group which is Tui, Amokura plus Pateke = 27.9Million barrels....and soon to be upgraded....

[Paint it Black]

Correct Sharp 737 thanks for your note - I was referring to the 4 wells of the Tui group. Yes let hope it is soon to be upgraded we all need some positive news the way the markets are going right now - PPP has hung in very well following last night's fall on the DOW - maybe the highly geared punters have already been eliminated!

[Sharp737]

And I've just bought some more....
As long as the sky doesn't fall....and Taranui about to be drilled. Now this is more interesting!

[Onthemoney]

I have got my trigger finger ready. Am about to launch back in. What a dream run I have just had.

[Tok3n]

So many destressed sellers

AWE and NZO haven't fallen by much today

Someone should launch a takeover of PPP for 25c, should get it quite easily.

[Onthemoney]

So many destressed sellers

AWE and NZO haven't fallen by much today

Someone should launch a takeover of PPP for 25c, should get it quite easily.

Could have got it for less than 20 cents a few months ago if all holders were willing sellers.

[boysy]

Its all market correction PPP has incresed more than NZO and AWE so of course it will fall to come in line with the other shares

[Onthemoney]

Its all market correction PPP has incresed more than NZO and AWE so of course it will fall to come in line with the other shares

Sorry Boysy if that theory was true all shares would be the same price....
If only it was that simple.

[Onthemoney]

Nice bit of volume just gone through. I wonder who sold?. I wonder who brought?

[boysy]

Of course im being simplistic but if you have a look at SP of the three respective companies there share prices have tracked each other though there are time lags.

[Onthemoney]

Put them on a graph side by side over the past year.... Not sure about your thoughts.

[the machine]

we have bought more ppp today as price is to much to resist.

with tui production, the widcat and maitland appraisal to enable reserves to be booked makes it all good for upside


see santos and apache are going to develop raindeer, who also have an interest in corvus i think, thus corvus may soon not be a stranded gas asset

OTM, with such a high volume in nz today was wondering if you bought back in?

M

[Sharp737]

Tell you what machine, PPP at these prices is ridiculous IMO.

And somebody wants some, that's for sure! I think some people have just panicked and stampeded. PPP is a darn good share I believe with huge upside in the near and longer term. And heaps of cash just about to stream in.

Sharp

[Paint it Black]

Now selling at 18.5Ac in Australia. I thought I was doing very well buying at 19Ac - the price is becoming ridiculously low in my opinion.

[upside_umop]

sell at 21 and buy at 16?

sell at 21 gives market cap of 116 million, first years revenues and profit ebita will be in vicinity of 120 and 60 millions respectively.

people are getting the shakes...

[Sharp737]

Prime Minister opens Tui Oil Field....First shipment of oil.....42,000bbl/day and rising

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20070816/pdf/31403t0y77hdtk.pdf

Sharp

[upside_umop]

good times, back to 25 cents...
was tempting at 21, but then you dont know how far its going to fall..

[Taijon]

PPP have now translated the AWE announcement into an announcement of their own. First time round they made a mistake with the percentage ownership of the Tui oilfields (put in the percentages for the Taranui field ownership). This doesn't give a shareholder much confidence that the admin/PR staff know what on earth they are doing!!!! This has since been corrected in an ammended announcement.

One interesting point in the PPP announcement is that the second shipment of oil will be loaded on 19 August so things must be going very well out on the FPSO.

[Alkie]

Hi All - I am new here as you can tell by my posts count, but I have been reading these a while waiting for my registration to come through

I, like everyone, was getting concerned about the PPP price drop but the good news is, as low as it went, it still didn't go below my average buy price hoorah for that.

I just wanted to check with you all, being as knowledgable as you are, do we know how many barrels there are. I am not in any way knowledgable of the oil industry, so not sure how this works. Do they take a guess by the size of the hole and then just pump it till it's dry and that's how much oil there is, or is there a way to know this before they have finished. Last I heard it was a guestimated 27.9mil, but that could mean anything to the likes of myself

Regardless, I am thankful the price went back up even though it was only a small amount

[Onthemoney]

PPP have now translated the AWE announcement into an announcement of their own. First time round they made a mistake with the percentage ownership of the Tui oilfields (put in the percentages for the Taranui field ownership). This doesn't give a shareholder much confidence that the admin/PR staff know what on earth they are doing!!!! This has since been corrected in an ammended announcement.

One interesting point in the PPP announcement is that the second shipment of oil will be loaded on 19 August so things must be going very well out on the FPSO.

Sounds great PPP is starting to look very liquid.... Not the bubbling crude variety either.... Might push the price up tomorrow....

[the machine]

yesterday we brought 26,000 @ 20c au and today they finished @ 23c au.
hoping for 30c au by end of august.

am glad we brought ppp yesterday instead of 6,000 nzo as considered ppp had been well and truely oversold.

takes my holding to 190,000 ppp or 0.034% of the company - discounting producton costs we shipped au$972 approx in oil today through ppp.

p/e ratio of ppp is presently 1/1 and sp can only go up.


have some awe & nzo as well so quite a few $ more shipped today.

a lot of my shares were held before tui was discovered and it is a relief to see production at long last.

looks like they may need 2 or 3 dedicated offloading tankers to service the production - after allowing for some delays to discharge in syd/bne

M

[manxman]

looks like they may need 2 or 3 dedicated offloading tankers to service the production - after allowing for some delays to discharge in syd/bne

M

Don't know how much oil Umuroa stores on board, but I believe she was a 70,000 tonne tanker in real life. So by the time you take into account the process plant and equipment, she may have enough freeboard to store 5-600,000 barrels or so. Regular offtakes of 300,000 barrells seems about right. Once she hits 50,000 barrells she is going to need offloading every six days. One ship certainly won't do it, but the 50,000 bopd won't last very long, so only one long term tanker will be needed, with other tankers contracted more or less by the trip.

By end 2008, Marsden Point will be reconfigured, and may like a little Tui in the feedstock, which could change shipping schedules unless Caltex has sewn up the entire production for a few years.

Good to have pleasant things to speculate over.

Mx

[the machine]

good solid performance on asx today - finished 1 c up, despite being a nervous nelly friday

looking good for 30c au by end august.

M

[Onthemoney]

All in the timing definitely

[temuk]

[QUOTE=manxman;159846]Don't know how much oil Umuroa stores on board, but I believe she was a 70,000 tonne tanker in real life. So by the time you take into account the process plant and equipment, she may have enough freeboard to store 5-600,000 barrels or so.

It holds 600,000 barrels approx.

Will be interseting to see how many barrels will be offloaded on sunday??

[manxman]

From www.marketwatch.com


Sept. crude up $1.11, or 1.6%, at $72.11 an ounce on Nymex
That should cause some excitement

Mx

[FRED]

Looks like Oil up and DOW up tonight also. Tree shake over. OPEC beware...pump more (if in fact it is possible) could be damaging World growth.

Oilers up Monday.

F

[the machine]

fed cut interest rate by half a percent should see bottom of correction and our market is closed.

hurricane dean is getting more attention and that will push oil up , thus have a double effect on the price of oil, inturn sp on monday.

M

[spike]

The thing that surprised me over the last few days was the speed people would with drawer their bids when they became near to being active.
I had an old buy from a few weeks ago for 40,000 ppp at 21 cent which I did not think much of it until I was checking the prices and found completed. A quick look showed a number of buys above and below had gone and the current status was buy at 16 and sell at 21. At that point I had visions of the next sell being at 16. A short while latter the news of the oil shipment came through at the price bounced back up. So I may if taken a bit of a loss on some other stocks but I'm feeling pretty pleased with my ppp purchase this weekend and hopping they will go up some more next week.

[neopole]

i see allan is still increasing his holding, i guess this man is happy with the sub-prime problem.
all the sheep dumping and allan saying thank you very much!

[JBmurc]

-I'd say Allan like myself sees the likely takeover of PPP now the oil&cash is flowing
- TAP-AWE etc must be doing the numbers

[shasta]

-I'd say Allan like myself sees the likely takeover of PPP now the oil&cash is flowing
- TAP-AWE etc must be doing the numbers

JBM

Theres been plenty of speculation about NZO/PPP being taken over, especially with the Santos situation.

Yes, TAP has cash in the bank (& more importantly the ability to borrow), but i've always thought the only way PPP (or NZO for that matter) would be taken over would be as a friendly script based merger by AWE.

I also believe for AWE to starve off the likes of WPL & STO, they may need to grow by acquistion (& ladden with debt initially) to avoid being a target themselves.

AWE/NZO/PPP would combined, be a larger enough energy company to go it alone & have the added bonus of an interest in PRC & the Kupe gas field, & thats just the NZO bag of goodies!

AWE & TAP already have NZ presence, & AWE knows NZO/PPP well.

NZO sold out of PPP a while back & cannot stop a T/O of PPP now, but Alan Tattersfield can.

Question for NZO/PPP holders is, would you want a piece of a AWE/NZO/PPP merged entity, & for me ...yes, they would get my NZO shares for a snap at $1.50. (PPP equivalent around 40 - 45c?)

Others thoughts?

[boysy]

getting a bit ahead of yourself with takeover talk aint we. If takeovers were on the cards why would they pick PPP over NZO ? just curious thats all

[the machine]

finished up another 1c au today @ 25 - tomorrow should have the spud announcement and that will spur along the sp - towards my target 30c au by august 31.

a takeover play would be really good, but too many shares on issue now, so IMO it is very doubtful

M

[JBmurc]

I believe with
-PPP's large cashflow relative to market cap
-Only 1 Major Stakeholder- Dir A Tattersfield(not many large blocking stakes)
-promising low-sovereign risk permits

Huge amounts of money flowing into Mid-large cap ASX oilers who have interests in NZ
etc ..AWE,TAP also BPT is taking a stake in the Taranaki drill some 20% with AWE drilling only 15kms from Tui
BPT-June qtr cashflow 125mill -Cash 78mill

-PPP Mrktcap 147mill

[Dazza]

ima in this baby :p
i shoulda done the maths back when it was at 15 cents bugger

oh well 24cents aint too shady :p

i brought from asx board though

since i already had aud funds

[Alkie]

A pretty large sell just popped up at 28c. Not reading into this too much - only 300k or so, but maybe someone knows something re taranui

[Onthemoney]

A pretty large sell just popped up at 28c. Not reading into this too much - only 300k or so, but maybe someone knows something re taranui


All partners shares involved with Taranui have dropped today. Who is getting out before Monday/Tuesday....

[temuk]

Made me wonder too !
But then I thought they are drilling to 3900m and they only started
0630 monday.

have they got there already???

[Lion]

yeah, temuk, I'm with you there, it's a bit early for anyone to know the Taranui result, but then Hector was pretty quick wasn't it?
(Too quick and then it's bloody dry - ah well, we blokes do our best, don't we?)
Can't explain the recent sp drop any other way though. [Down 7! on ASX today]
Some people said a duster at Taranui was already built in - was that you, Bermuda? Can't recall.

The low sp just doesn't add up to me. Yes, I know they say the market is irrational, and they also say the market is always right - recipe for insanity maybe!

But let's hope rationality prevails sooner or later. Solid flow rates at Tui with relatively high POO and low $NZ must surely register with the masses sometime.

Nice to meet you, temuk, and others 2 weeks ago at the NZO meeting!

[the machine]

looks like my hope of 30c au by end of month is very sick.

maybe end of sept, after a few more oil cargoes, maitland, tananui and the annual report.

sp is falling whilst asx is going up

M

[Sharp737]

Reserves Upgrade!!!

15% PLUS more potentially!!

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20070827/pdf/3145x5qqx9xgzj.pdf

Now this is more like it. Hehehe

Sharp

[leonchai]

The resource upgrade works out to about extra 5c per share in profit after tax and costs (minimal), given 40million revenue net to PPP over the life of the project....

If at 3 years and 10% discount rate, would be worth 3.6 cents cash today...

The potential for more upgrades in 2 months is whats getting me really excited though...

[Oiler]

Reserves Upgrade!!!

15% PLUS more potentially!!

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20070827/pdf/3145x5qqx9xgzj.pdf

Now this is more like it. Hehehe

Sharp

Sharp "all four wells choked back" would indicate to me that there may well be more production beyond a 'potential 15% upgrade'
There is more to this than the market knows ?

Boysy... these figures just mean that the field production last longer than first thought.

Looks good !!

[bermuda]

Sharp "all four wells choked back" would indicate to me that there may well be more production beyond a 'potential 15% upgrade'
There is more to this than the market knows ?

Boysy... these figures just mean that the field production last longer than first thought.

Looks good !!

Well I have a few of these and it's sp reflects some very sage comments given to me a few years ago.Where it is going I am not sure but you can bet there is merger talk on the table.

Otherwise just sit back and see the asset backing just rise and rise.

[boysy]

you would think merger talk would intensify considerably if Taranui is succesful ?

[Onthemoney]

you would think merger talk would intensify considerably if Taranui is succesful ?

Yes boysy. PPP is certainly looking very tasty as a takeover target. Mr Tattersfield is very astute though.

[Nitaa]

to put things in perspective its more valuable than a 5mbo strike at Taranui. the longer that oil stays around $70 per barrel the more appreciation in sp is coming to ppp.
the next 7 days.. possible target depth this weekend will mean that next monday is going to be interesting

[temuk]

Yes boysy. PPP is certainly looking very tasty as a takeover target. Mr Tattersfield is very astute though.

I'm sure if the price is right Mr Tattersfield will back up the dump
truck to cart his share away.

[boysy]

well a T/O wheather PPP or NZO would spice things up and bring some media attention to these companies which they collectively deserve.

[Onthemoney]

well a T/O wheather PPP or NZO would spice things up and bring some media attention to these companies which they collectively deserve.

There would be very little media coverage boysy - it would be a blip on the radar of most media.....

[the machine]

the reserves upgrade was higher than most expected [and a lot sooner]
maybe just intime to include in the agm printing as a significant event after finacial year

scope for another upgrade in 2 months is really good.

the announcement was after nzx closed so one would expect a big jump on nzx tomorrow and hopefully still some more on the asx as well

alas, cannot totally rule out 30c au by august 31 close

M

[FRED]

Argh...burb.

Bublin crude.

F

[Onthemoney]

Argh...burb.

Bublin crude.

F

Lovely Fred - what is that smell?

[FRED]

Slight hint of Gin...the 47% duty free type. Should possibly be a reserve Bourbon on a day like this.

Do not understand the un developed reserves part of ann.

Understand the rest. And that I will from hence forth.

F

[boysy]

well PPP currently up 3 to 29 looks like 30 cents by end of august might be a bit conservative though the announcement might change things

[the machine]

4th cargo due to load on Sunday - this is a pretty big tanker so might empty the fsop.

It should also see the 1m barrel shipped, assuming first 3 cargoes # 300,000 barrels


Sun 02/09 00:01 BRITISH OSPREY PSA fpso ETA >> --/NIL NIL 250m 63661 0

M

[Alkie]

So I have a question that will probably stir some debate - what is the best deal at the moment NZO, PPP or AWE? The only things they have in common as I understand it is this JV (feel free to correct me if I'm wrong). They are different size companies, and from what I hear on these boards they are all undervalued, so which would you suggest I buy?

I have a few PPP, but want to invest a bit more. I like oil, and don't own a car so I am taking full advantage on being on the supplying side of things

[tsb]

I covered the bases and have all three - they all look good for different reasons.

[peterb]

Interestingly, AWE only has 468 million odd shares (but is highly liquid with about 2 million trading every day), compared to NZO which has 260 million odd shares. Its shares a just worth about 3 and a half times as much as NZO. The interesting this is that AWE gives a similar exposure per share (percentage wise) to taranaki as NZO does. So for example AWE's 42.5% of tui is 0.03 barrels per share, and NZO's 12.5% of tui is 0.015 barrels per share. 15million barrels at taranui would similarly be 0.014 barrels per share AWE, 0.0072 NZO. AWE is attractive because they had got 3 other producing assets, and 5-6 high reward exploration areas, but are also savvy at doing farmouts, farmins and keeping good JV relationships. If a larger company was interested in one of these companies, it would be AWE, because AWE are operator of the permits- large companies don't want to waste their time being minority holders on a whole lot of permits. Alternately, AWE could get hungry and eat someone, but that would seem imprudent considering their management's excellent cash conservation strategies.

Disc. hold AWE

[Sharp737]

TUI Oil Production:

$US80 per bbl Tapis = approx $NZ115 (at today's prices)

Lets see.... 47k bbl/day @ $NZ115 = $NZ5.4m per day (gross)
PPP's share @ 10% = $NZ540,000 per day = $16.2M per 30day month = $NZ48.6M over 3 months (gross).

Now if 47,000 bbl/day was kept up for even 6 months, that would be gross $NZ97.2M!!!

That is HUGE!

This has to be good

And with a highly probable second reserves upgrade in the next 2 or 3 months!

PPP may well gross close to $NZ200M for a years production!!! Especially if the crude oil price continues to increase which it may well do.

http://www.aip.com.au/pricing/marketwatch.htm

[Unicorn]

Sharp737

Be careful with your production estimates, as these are shallow reservoirs so production will tail off quickly and severely. The original plan was for 30% of the total in year 1. That means 32 x 0.1 x .3 x 115 = $110M. Current production is running ahead of the original plan, but to expect any more than 40% in year 1 is being unduly optimistic. That is a (very best case) $150M, assuming $115 per barrel - and plenty of barrels have already been sold for somewhat less than that.

Tui is a fantastic project, but let's keep it real.

[jdg]

still a pretty good story, but three dry wells were disappointing and i suspect this will inhibit near-term upside. they need to put more holes in the ground (one is pending in Aus, but it's a relatively quiet period, i think) but all this does cost money (at least for the next couple of years they're swimming in that). i was a bit surprised to see the upgrade have very little effect -perhaps that reflects flagging sentiment. after buying on the ASX in jan/march at .165c and .15c i sold my last at .24c in Aus when hector came back dry, after offloading about half at .34c a couple of weeks or so before. i did pretty well from ppp but one strike would have been so sweet. still, i enjoyed the ride. for what its worth, i've gone into CUE. they have small percentage holdings in quite a few projects and four or so coming on stream in coming months. i'm hoping for ppp-like appreciation in the run-up to each of these. exploration potential too. looks undervalued to me. good luck to holders.
-j

[the machine]

maitland has spudded.

if this proves up the field with the production test then development is just around the corner.

M

[Sharp737]

Interesting article by Apache

Apache gears up for Maitland drill

By Upstream staff
Apache is preparing to drill an appraisal well on the Maitland discovery off Western Australia where the US independent thinks it has potential reserves of 800 billion cubic feet of gas.
Drilling of Maitland-2 in Block WA-33-R is scheduled to begin in late August or early September.
The Maitland discovery has reserves of 245 billion cubic feet of gas and 5 million barrels of condensate, but has remained undeveloped for the past decade for two main reasons, said co-venturer Pan Pacific Petroleum.
"Firstly, the two earlier wells flowed gas at relatively low rates and also produced sand. Secondly, the permeability and well deliverability encountered at that time were low when compared to other nearby offshore gas fields," said Pan Pacific.
Apache's latest analysis indicates the Maitland field has a gross gas column thickness of at least 23 metres.
The Maitland-2 well is planned to be drilled to allow a complete test of the whole prognosed gas column, the drilling of a sidetrack well to collect two cores for reservoir quality and permeability studies and a 500-metre horizontal well to allow deliverability studies to be carried out, added Pan Pacific.
Apache said recently that Maitland is just south of its producing John Brookes field and if drilling is successful it will be tied into the John Brookes facilities.
http://www.upstreamonline.com/incoming/article138187.ece

Sharp

[Sharp737]

Apache tests Maitland potential


By Upstream staff

US independent Apache is drilling a shallow-water horizontal appraisal well on the Maitland gas discovery in the Carnarvon basin off Western Australia.

The gas field is in 80 metres of water and already has reserves of 245 million cubic feet of gas and 5 million barrels of condensate, said co-venturer Tap Oil.

"With rising gas prices in Western, a successful flow test from a horizontal well in this field presents a robust economic case for its development," said Tap.

Maitland was discovered in 1992 and flowed gas at rates of up to 8.5 million cubic feet of gas per day from a vertical well. It was subsequently appraised with a second well and 3D seismic data.

Apache said recently it had found the Maitland reservoir to be clay-rich.

For Maitland-2, Apache plans to use synthetic or oil-based mud, and if it gets flow rates in the order of 20 MMcdf to 30 MMcfd then it will have a commercial project.

The field is 45 kilometres away from Apache's Varanus Island gas processing facilities.

[Sharp737]

Maitland 2 to hit target depth in 4 days - target depth 1400m.

Then core to be taken off a sidetrack, then horizontal drilling 4-500m and development flow testing to begin in 2-3 weeks.

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20070907/pdf/314fmvnck91mcs.pdf

Sharp

[the machine]

a successful appraisal / production test would do a lot for the sp

M

[Sharp737]

Some interesting information from TAPs presentation on Maitland field.
Should be an announcement out today on the drilling progress.

Pages 12-13. You will need broadband to download this pdf file I would think.

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20070904/pdf/314chgl0bjmwzk.pdf

Sharp

[the machine]

maitland update should be out tomorrow

M

[Paint it Black]

No news as yet on Maitland it seems - do we really expect to hear anything or do we need to wait until the horizontal drilling and evaluations are completed?

I see AWE is now onto West Cape (100mb potential) with the Ocean Patriot and then I believe Kopuwai. If they strike lucky there what will it do to PPP's sp I wonder?

[digger]

MINE: PPP: MAITLAND-2 DRILLING UPDATE - 17 SEPTEMBER 2007 04:52pm
PPP
17/09/2007
MINE

REL: 1652 HRS Pan Pacific Petroleum NL

MINE: PPP: MAITLAND-2 DRILLING UPDATE - 17 SEPTEMBER 2007

STOCK EXCHANGE ANNOUNCEMENT

17 September 2007

MAITLAND-2 DRILLING UPDATE

Pan Pacific Petroleum NL reports that as of Monday, 17th September, the
Maitland-2 appraisal well had drilled to its total depth, having intersected
the Maitland reservoir section as prognosed. Hydrocarbon shows were observed
through the reservoir interval and wireline logging operations are currently
under way.

After the completion of wireline operations, Maitland-2 is to be sidetracked
to collect two cores for reservoir quality and permeability studies. A
horizontal sidetrack, Maitland-3H, will then be drilled to allow
deliverability studies to be carried out - this flow testing programme is
expected to commence about 14 days from now.

The Maitland-2 appraisal well is located in Permit WA-33-R in the Carnarvon
Basin, W.A..

Pan Pacific Petroleum NL has 10% equity in WA-33-R.

Other participants are: Apache Oil Australia Pty Ltd (Operator) 48.82%,
Santos (BOL) Pty Ltd 18.71% and Tap Oil Limited 22.47%.

K M Ware
Company Secretary
End CA:00153897 For:PPP Type:MINE Time:2007-09-17:16:52:26




Sponsored Links
FREE share market seminar








© Direct Broking Limited 2005.

[the machine]

tap comment is a bit more detailed in that reservoir is gas charged.


MAITLAND-2 APPRAISAL WELL UPDATE CARNARVON BASIN


Tap Oil Limited (“Tap”) provides the following information on the Maitland-2 well which spudded on 6th September 2007.

Location
The Maitland-2 appraisal well is located in permit WA-33-R at a surface location of latitude 20°32'34.59"S and longitude 115°09'47.19"E in the Barrow Sub-basin, approximately 40 kilometres north-west of Barrow Island and 5 kilometres south-east of the John Brookes field.

Progress
As of Monday 17th September Maitland-2 had drilled to its total depth intersecting the Maitland reservoir section on prognosis. Hydrocarbon shows were observed through the reservoir interval and wireline logging operations are currently underway.

Tap Comment
Preliminary analysis indicates that the reservoir is gas charged. After the completion of wireline operations Maitland-2 is planned to be sidetracked in order to collect conventional core over the reservoir interval. A horizontal sidetrack, Maitland-3H, will then be drilled and flow tested to establish potential development production rates. The flow testing programme is expected to commence in around two weeks time.



M

[sideline]

Goldman Raises Year-End Oil Price Forecast to $85 (Update4)

By Alexander Kwiatkowski

Sept. 17 (Bloomberg) -- Goldman Sachs Group Inc. raised its yearend oil-price forecast to $85 a barrel and said there was a ``high risk'' of a jump above $90 because supplies will drop to critical levels in the fourth quarter, when heating demand peaks.

Goldman increased its 2007 yearend forecast from a previous prediction of $72 a barrel, analysts at the world's biggest securities firm said in a research note today. Prices are forecast to reach as high as $95 a barrel by the end of 2008, Goldman said.

...................................

[Sharp737]

I think some people might be panicking and just want out or need the money.
I say that because PPP is looking the best it ever has.

1. Tui is producing well with one upgrade and more to come (I think that is quite safe to say).
2. Maitland 2/3H is looking good and a 500m horizontal well is going to flow substantially more than approx. 20m vertical well. That's how I see it but core tests do have to be done.
3. Maitland has Apache as Operator and Santos with a big stake too. These boys are not silly, they are there to make money.
4. Apache thinks the reserves are over 3 times what they have "in place" now.

Sharp

[Sharp737]

Heh, can't resist this...BUY BUY BUY

Never be cheaper! (barring a huge market crash) :-)

[Sharp737]

You know, if Maitland comes in also, and with the expected reserves increase that Apache thinks it has, PPP would have to be a genuine take over target eh.

Just my thoughts and with the bucket loads of cash coming in now with oil prices over US$80 bbl...I make PPP's gross share after 2 months (by end of Sept) approx. NZ$28-29M Gross....that's about an average of say 46,000bbl/day @ around NZ$105 average.

So after 4 months would be between NZ$56 to NZ$60M Gross at present prices. Man, that has to be good.

Now if and when Maitland comes in, what would be the cash flow be from that development?

In a few weeks, if the Maitland flow testing etc is indeed positive, PPP would have to be and attractive take over target I would think

Sharp

[Sharp737]

TAP Oil to make take over offer for PPP (if Maitland comes in good).

TAP Oil price about A$1.75-A$1.80 now. If Maitland comes in, A$2.20-A$2.40?

Offer to PPP 1:5? PPP = A$0.45c?

TAP gets all PPP's cash, 10% Tui, 10% Maitland (take their stake to over 32%) plus all PPP's permits....

Just musing but I BET TAP has been thinking this....

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20070820/pdf/3141yb14l8qcqy.pdf

Sharp

[the machine]

TAP Oil to make take over offer for PPP (if Maitland comes in good).

TAP Oil price about A$1.75-A$1.80 now. If Maitland comes in, A$2.20-A$2.40?

Offer to PPP 1:5? PPP = A$0.45c?

TAP gets all PPP's cash, 10% Tui, 10% Maitland (take their stake to over 32%) plus all PPP's permits....

Just musing but I BET TAP has been thinking this....

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20070820/pdf/3141yb14l8qcqy.pdf

Sharp

doubt very much if tap would go that high - might add 10c on a successful flow test.

after that one has to be mindful it would still be a stranded gas asset and any development might be stalled for another 5 years or so, as they do not need the gas for a few years and of course any development might be linked to apache assets further north west.

as for ppp, might add 6c then drop back to 4c - settle on say 25c au

M

[Sharp737]

Thanks for comments Machine.
Yes, you could be right but any takeover offer/merger offer from TAP (if it comes and Maitland is important here), would have to be reasonable to get acceptance from PPP management/Alan Tattersfield. Even a 1:6 offer could be tempting and not dilute TAP too much for what they would get.

TAP future & prospects look very good too.

Sharp

[the machine]

pretty small tanker due at the fsop tomorrow to load

Shipping Forecast as of 23/09/2007 10:36:

Day Date Time Ship Agnt Cargo Move From >> To Pi/Tug Bth LOA Gross Drft

Mon 24/09 23:00 BRITISH SWIFT PSA fpso ETA >> --/NIL NIL 0m 0 0


M

[manxman]

pretty small tanker due at the fsop tomorrow to load

Shipping Forecast as of 23/09/2007 10:36:

Day Date Time Ship Agnt Cargo Move From >> To Pi/Tug Bth LOA Gross Drft

Mon 24/09 23:00 BRITISH SWIFT PSA fpso ETA >> --/NIL NIL 0m 0 0


M

Zero length, Drft etc?
Disturbing to think they put about 17 crew on a ship that small.

Not quite that small though
Class: SHI 1430 'Bird' Class
Capacity: 115,000 DWT
Cargo: Crude / Fuel Oil
Owner: Bareboat Charter to BP Shipping
Dwt: 115,000 dwt
Speed: 16.5kts
Registration: Isle of Man:D:D:D

Probably heading for Singapore area. They use smaller ones for the oz shuttle service. Enough capacity to suck the FPSO dry, and then some. Production must be holding up.

Mx

[the machine]

Zero length, Drft etc?
Disturbing to think they put about 17 crew on a ship that small.

Not quite that small though
Class: SHI 1430 'Bird' Class
Capacity: 115,000 DWT
Cargo: Crude / Fuel Oil
Owner: Bareboat Charter to BP Shipping
Dwt: 115,000 dwt
Speed: 16.5kts
Registration: Isle of Man:D:D:D

Probably heading for Singapore area. They use smaller ones for the oz shuttle service. Enough capacity to suck the FPSO dry, and then some. Production must be holding up.

Mx

the british osprey took 600,000 barrels the other week and this looks like the same

hard to keep track of the cargoes but this must be the 6th or 7th and Tui now must have an accepted grade by refinieries.

M

[manxman]

British Osprey left the FPSO on Sept 6th, and at a guess, left the FPSO pretty high in the water. British Swift, same capacity, is at the FPSO eighteen days later. In the meantime the oz shuttle is still running. Either they are sending these ships away light, or there is a consistent flow close to the design maximum, and the water quantity is still not restricting the oil output. Looking good.

Last reported position for Osprey (about five days ago) was south of Borneo, heading West, so she should have reached Singapore.

Mx

[Sharp737]

Aaaahhhh.....building up a stake in PPP.....had to come.....

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20070925/pdf/314qssc80jjg64.pdf

Now, who's going to be next?

Sharp

[Sharp737]

Man, I don't know about you but the signs are sure looking good in latest report from TAP and PPP on Maitland gas...

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20070926/pdf/314rjy1h685fcv.pdf

Sharp

[sideline]

Looks good Sharpie!

[Mr Tommy]

Man, I don't know about you but the signs are sure looking good in latest report from TAP and PPP on Maitland gas...

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20070926/pdf/314rjy1h685fcv.pdf

Sharp

How much is Maitland worth to PPP, anyone know.
See PPP are up 3c today

[Sharp737]

Well if Apache are right with their estimate possiblities....800 billion cu'ft is one heck of a lot of gas! Even the 240 billion cu'ft of gas is comparable to Kupe (gas wise). So...if Maitland flows well and has even the original estimate, this has got to worth something substantial IMHO. 5-8c a share? If the field is 3x as big as originally thought....15-24c a share extra?

Sharp

[Sharp737]

TAP is up from around $1.75/1.80 a week ago to A$2.10 today...Up around 30c :)

http://www.directbroking.co.nz/directtrade/dynamic/quote.aspx?QQE=NZSE&QQSC=ppp

Now what do we have here? Certainly NOT a duster IMO...

[digger]

TAP is up from around $1.75/1.80 a week ago to A$2.10 today...Up around 30c :)

http://www.directbroking.co.nz/directtrade/dynamic/quote.aspx?QQE=NZSE&QQSC=ppp

Now what do we have here? Certainly NOT a duster IMO...


Yes looking somewhat interesting.I would have to say Sharp 737 is a bit sharp and on the ball with his reasoning. Especially as you have somewhat single handly been pushing this maitland gas project on this site. Time as always will tell but today looking very promising.

[peterb]

Yes looking somewhat interesting.I would have to say Sharp 737 is a bit sharp and on the ball with his reasoning. Especially as you have somewhat single handly been pushing this maitland gas project on this site. Time as always will tell but today looking very promising.

Tap has also been driven by woolybutt: be careful of comparisons

[the machine]

maitland will be really good for ppp if the resource is proven.

assuming success then combined with another month of tui production /project loan paid for, then ppp will be humming and its not very difficult to imagine a 30% appreciation in the sp by end of october.

ppp will be pushing for more exploration - probably off wa coast in the short term and then maybe nz in 12 months or so when tui partners have another crack of finding more oil.

M

[Sharp737]

Tap has also been driven by woolybutt: be careful of comparisons

Yes you are right Peter and I should have mentioned that too. However, Woollybutt is already producing at 8,000 bbl/day and latest development is not new but has been expected with the rise in production all going well going to 14,000 bbl/day in early 2008. TAP's interest is 15%.

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20070627/pdf/3134jlnl071yc4.pdf See page 13

But I still believe that Maitland has had a definite effect on TAP's price as well. A double header for TAP and an even more attractive case should TAP make a takeover offer for PPP (wtih TAP's increase in price with possibly a lot more to come).

I am of coure tempered by the fact that Tony Radford and Alan Tattersfield would have to be given a really good offer before they would accept a takeover/merger but all things are possible! If there is no takeover, PPP will still do extremely well if Maitland does flow commercially and the reserves are significantly upgraded. It is outwardly still by no means certain although personally, I believe the signs are there.

But of course, I am not a financial advisor. I like PPP and you have to do your own research and make your own decisions. As a broker friend said to me years ago "YOU make the call...."

Let's hope for good things for PPP

Sharp

[Sharp737]

"WA domestic gas prices 'to quadruple'
September 27, 2007 - 7:29PM
AdvertisementAdvertisement
Domestic gas prices in Western Australia could quadruple over the next few years, says a report by broking house Argonaut Securities.
Report author analyst Ian Christie says the days of $2 gas gone and a short-term supply gap will spike prices at between $7 and $10 per gigajoule in the next two to three years until new supply comes on line early next decade.
"WA gas prices have been out of line internationally for some time, and a sharp realignment was always on the cards," Mr Christie said.
"LNG producers, for example, who are enjoying rapidly growing export demand and negotiating prices above $10 per gigajoule, will be seeking competitive prices for gas sold domestically."
He said the costs of finding, developing and producing gas were picking up sharply.
"... gas is more distant, deeper, dirtier and drier (and) will ensure a higher floor for prices even when new supply comes on stream."
Mr Christie said gas producers that can deliver uncontracted gas - Santos, Tap Oil and possibly ARC Energy - were in a strong position to negotiate terms.
Large commercial consumers that have not yet tied down their energy requirements, such as new mines, could lose out, he warned....."

http://www.theage.com.au/news/Business/WA-domestic-gas-prices-to-quadruple/2007/09/27/1190486476754.html

Sharp

[Sharp737]

But, check out pages 6,7,13,14&27 of this presentation by TAP oil just released....
Now that's interesting!

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20071010/pdf/3151dfyy8szkpb.pdf

Sharp

[Sharp737]

TAP's up a lot....

http://www.directbroking.co.nz/directtrade/dynamic/quote.aspx?QQE=NZSE&QQSC=ppp

Whazzup? :-)

Sharp

[pietrade]

Bit of a side issue - but, can anyone explain how neither of T.R's and N Tomkinson's shareholdings (4,538,724 and 47,579,757 resp.see p.9 in 'Directors Report') are listed amongst the 'Top 20 Shareholders' (p7) ??? I mean - how could they be missed out ? Is this just incompetant accounting or what?

[Sharp737]

Sorry can't answer your question at the mo but here's the latest announcement for PPP

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20071012/pdf/3152yj34td7kf2.pdf

Production testing to take another week after cleanup and shut-in but TAP is very pleased with flows so far.

That is a positive result so far....

Sharp

[the machine]

ppp up 1.5c au so far today and with another 74 minutes of trading left on asx then still plenty of time for further gains.

like the comment from tap re production rates etc

M

alas still on eastern states time and asx well and truely closed

M

[Sharp737]

Machine, you are right. The TAP (TAP price now around $2.40!) comments are very good, especially the last one:

"The production test results will be used to establish development production rates for the field."

If that is not a good indication, I'll "eat my hat." Hehehe

And yet the PPP annoucement was more conservative. Wonder why that is? In fact PPP has been quite reserved on the Maitland field all the way along.

TAP though, appears to give much more information, and positive information at that. And the Sharescene forum in Oz has a good post re: the perceived difficulties and how they are overcome these days.

But what does Maitland (and with a possible upgrade? Time will tell) do for PPP?
Easy.
Check out that TAP report and it won't be long before Maitland comes on stream with much higher gas prices. Lets not forget a bit of condensate there too.
And Tui rocking for the next couple of years before declining to say 8-10,000 bbl per day and very slow decline after that to even 2017 (and even that's pretty good) or thereabouts (subject to any further close discoveries which would up that).
As Tui starts its decline, Maitland starts up. Excellent. Now we have a good cash flow on two fields with Maitland providing substantial revenue as Tui declines and I would think for possibly longer, especially if Maitland is upgraded which is what Apache are hoping for.

Lets not forget the perceived huge price inceases coming in the future too.

If the final flow tests for the Maitland field are positive, which the indications are that they will be and Maitland is developed, we have a pretty darn good petroleum company. No wonder Tattersfield & co are increasing their stakes. And one would have to wonder if perhaps PPP has been conservative so that stakes could be accumulated easily....????? Nah...reading too much into things....or am I?

Sharp

[Sharp737]

Quote from Mr Tommy on NOG's forum:

By NICK SMITH - Independent Financial Review | Wednesday, 17 October 2007


New Zealand Oil and Gas is seeking more oil assets and is prepared to look offshore.

With a new chief executive and oil revenues beginning to flow, the company has set itself the ambitious target of nearly doubling next year's production of more than 1.1 million equivalent barrels of oil in just four years.

"We're going to have to look at asset and corporate acquisition," says David Salisbury, a 40-year-old Taranaki native raised in the 1970s when Bill Birch's Think Big scheme pumped millions into provincial New Zealand's economy.

Salisbury, six months into the job and having seen subsidiary Pike River Coal successfully floated, says growth will come solely from NZOG's core business exploration, development and production of oil and gas.

Existing sources will peak around 1.3 million of barrels of oil equivalent in 2010, tailing off to just over 1 million in 2012 and 750,000 in 2015.

NZOG is confident of exploiting its existing Taranaki prospects but even so, for the equivalent of two million barrels by 2012, it will need to go to the market for funding to buy.

"The exploration we're looking at is New Zealand focused at this stage. We're going to have a very strong go at growing and we want it in meaningful tranches."

The high level of inherent risk and investment needed by the industry requires a sustained return.

"That's what makes us look at acquisition."

The company is working on a number of strategies to fund future acquisition. Much depends on the size of the target but Salisbury says it could include further debt, going to the equity market, share placement, issuing equity to another company or even forward selling oil production.

On the government's new energy strategy putting a 10-year ban on state-owned gas or coal-fired power plants, he says there is still a strong domestic need for gas and "any gas we find will find a home".

"It certainly doesn't put NZOG off from further exploration."

For a company that recorded revenue around $18 million last year "it was a series of one-offs" and whose production only started properly this year, its chief executive is bullish.

Are peak oil prices causing a rush of blood? "It's not a bad rule of thumb to look at a barrel of oil as being worth about $100," is his riposte, noting many expect the price of oil to top US$100 a barrel this year.

It costs hundreds of millions of dollars to develop a site but at those prices ``we expect the fields to be profitable for up to 10 years".

"This year we've already sold around 300,000 barrels of oil." By financial year's end it will be just shy of 1.2 million $120 million by Salisbury's rule of thumb.

The company has a record of moving quickly. While the Tui field is based on decades of data, actual oil discovery was recent: "To go from discovery to production in a four-year window is very, very good going."

Tui has transformed the company. "While we're not going to acquire Shell in the next couple of years'' it is suddenly earning significant cash.

How significant? In August, Statistics New Zealand recorded its largest amount of crude exports for one month. August also broke the record for receipts to Australia, our largest trading partner.

"September's presumably going to do the same."

It's not just Tui but Kupe, ``which most people think is only a gas field".

Gas is great but its off-products are more profitable. While Kupe holds 254 petajoules of gas, it will also produce 1.1 million tonnes of LPG and, more importantly, 14.7 million barrels of condensate, a light oil similar to the top-shelf product produced by Tui.

Kupe is on track for production in mid-2009, Salisbury says.

The 30 kilometres of pipeline connecting the well-head to the production station is at Port Marlborough and is ready to be welded and installed. The "jacket" the legs of the platform are in Port Taranaki. The platform top will be finished in Thailand and shipped to New Zealand by the end of the month.

It's Tonka toys times ten: "When you spend $1 billion, you get some pretty pieces of kit."

[jdg]

sharpie, given NZO have just sold their chunk of PPP a couple of months ago, i can't see them buying it all back. to be honest, i think it's overly ambitious of NZO to be looking for other projects at the moment. they've got a fair bit on their plate, and they seem to choke on that a lot of the time.

-j

[the machine]

ppp also have 10% of corvus - 400m thick gas column so far that has not been drilled to the bottom.

but that is still years away from adding any value

M

[Sharp737]

Thanks Machine for that. Good point.

Just wondering about it though and if Maitland comes in....which it appears it may very well do....I mean, if NOG were to get PPP's 10% of Tui, that's an extra $100m by end of financial year? NOG are looking at $120m (gross) by then so....dunno

But just imagine a cash offer or say a cash plus share offer or perhaps a choice? I for one could be tempted!

And yes, NOG have sold some but now that the dust has settled with PRC & Kupe etc., perhaps an offer could be revisited? I mean, TR is still the chairman, Tattersfield is still his right hand man there with over 11% so....Hey, perhaps there's life in this Company yet, more than we realise?

Sharp

[boysy]

NZO sold all there share of PPP a few months back has enough changed to make PPP look like a good T/O prospect ?

[Sharp737]

Hard to say really. What have we?

1. Tui with an upgrade on the 32m bbl coming most likely
2. Maitland - PPP has 10% (TAP has over 22%). Development final decision pending flow rate tests due out possibly this week or next.
3. Corvus gas field and small Tusk oil field

http://www.tapoil.com.au/pages/about.asp

NZ Oil & Gas 2000 Annual Report has some data on Corvus gas field (420m column) & Tusk oil field

4. All of PPP’s Taranaki & Australian licenses with their possible upside
5. All of PPP's cash (getting quite a lot now)

So, PPP could still be attractive for NOG or possibly TAP

Sharp

[Sharp737]

Man, I wonder about AWE too...?

[digger]

Sharp737,thankyou for carrying this PPP thread virtually by yourself. I have just more than 2 million ppp's so am very interested in the Maitland drilling results. In theory we should not know until next week but todays SP movement with a current buyer at 31 gives me the impression someone knows a bit about the gas flows. Looking good . What are your latest thoughts as i am certainly reading them with interest. Some of your suggestions could well be the eventual outcome.

[Sharp737]

Hi digger, thanks for the comments, much appreciated.
I must confess I am waiting with "baited breath" for the Maitland results. All comments from TAP especially point to the result being positve but it's not over "until the fat lady sings" eh. However, I am very hopeful.
I havn't got quite as much PPP's as you digger, wish I did but I do have a "fair share" :-)
I really like the oil & gas and the resources sector in Australia.

The really good thing with PPP though is not just the increased Tui reserves, and with more to come, good Tui flow rates and the gas fields in Oz (particularly Maitland), but the increased oil and gas prices of late and I can't really see that going down in the short term with some volatility of course.

Have a good weekend

Sharp

[the machine]

no announcement out today re maitland which is annoying.
last friday it was out about 1900 hours and a week has passed.

several years ago when we held tap oil we got the impression that announcements had to wait until the operator - apache, made their announcement in the usa - which could still happen in usa today.

still think a positive maitland announcement will add minimum 3 - 4 c au to the ppp sp with further increase if/when a development decision is made.

M

[leonchai]

Can someone explain what todays ann meant ? I can't even decided whether it's good or bad!

"Tap is very pleased with the testing conducted on Maitland-3H, both technically and
operationally. The testing programme demonstrates that the flow potential of the Maitland
reservoir is well in excess of the restricted test flow."

I was hoping for much more than 6mmscf/d...I thought TAP mentioned needing more than 20mmscf/d for the well to be commercial? Despite the sand influx constraining flow rates, does any experts here feel that 20-30mmscf/d will be achievable? Also when are the 2 new vertical wells going to be spudded? Surely if the flow rates are too low to be commercial, they wont even bother!

[the machine]

Can someone explain what todays ann meant ? I can't even decided whether it's good or bad!

"Tap is very pleased with the testing conducted on Maitland-3H, both technically and
operationally. The testing programme demonstrates that the flow potential of the Maitland
reservoir is well in excess of the restricted test flow."

I was hoping for much more than 6mmscf/d...I thought TAP mentioned needing more than 20mmscf/d for the well to be commercial? Despite the sand influx constraining flow rates, does any experts here feel that 20-30mmscf/d will be achievable? Also when are the 2 new vertical wells going to be spudded? Surely if the flow rates are too low to be commercial, they wont even bother!


imo it was a positive annoucement and came as a big surprise to see the sp drop by 2c.

would expect the 2 vertical wells to be drilled fairly soon - within 3 months, as the HJV basically have 2 jack ups available and they need to increase reserves asap so can cash in on the booming gas price

M

[digger]

imo it was a positive annoucement and came as a big surprise to see the sp drop by 2c.

would expect the 2 vertical wells to be drilled fairly soon - within 3 months, as the HJV basically have 2 jack ups available and they need to increase reserves asap so can cash in on the booming gas price

M

Well it is certainly not a plug and abandon. Tend to think that this is a good prospect as further testing in the very near future is justified,and that speaks for itself. The yesterday 2 cent drop is an octomber thing and will have no long term bearing.No time to sell.

[Sharp737]

I have been away shootin' n huntin' for the weekend :)

But just looking at the TAP comment and I agree with you machine that it is indeed very positive. Just also remember, this flow test is from ONE well....Development wells would number 4 or more I would think.

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20071022/pdf/315881sny0v945.pdf

Now I wonder why PPP management are not commenting like TAP are? To me, this is a "no brainer", it will be developed. It's just a matter now of doing the technical data/calculations from this well and then the vertical appraisals to settling just how much is there. On the positive side, this may confirm reserve upgrades that Apache have been hinting at.

The drop in share price I think is only temporary so I wouldn't worry there. Bit surprising though and seems to show that some people want out. I think they will lose out.

Sharp

[JBmurc]

I have been away shootin' n huntin' for the weekend :)

But just looking at the TAP comment and I agree with you machine that it is indeed very positive. Just also remember, this flow test is from ONE well....Development wells would number 4 or more I would think.

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20071022/pdf/315881sny0v945.pdf

Now I wonder why PPP management are not commenting like TAP are? To me, this is a "no brainer", it will be developed. It's just a matter now of doing the technical data/calculations from this well and then the vertical appraisals to settling just how much is there. On the positive side, this may confirm reserve upgrades that Apache have been hinting at.

The drop in share price I think is only temporary so I wouldn't worry there. Bit surprising though and seems to show that some people want out. I think they will lose out.

Sharp

-Yeah I Agree the sellers of PPP aren't giving any value for Maitland and basicly pricing PPP as though it was uncommercial yet they are drilling vertical appraisals which should flow significantly higher than the constricted 6mmcfg I'm happy to keep holding and buying more little downside with PPP (24c asx) a screaming takeover 40c-50c IMHO

[the machine]

-Yeah I Agree the sellers of PPP aren't giving any value for Maitland and basicly pricing PPP as though it was uncommercial yet they are drilling vertical appraisals which should flow significantly higher than the constricted 6mmcfg I'm happy to keep holding and buying more little downside with PPP (24c asx) a screaming takeover 40c-50c IMHO

the 2 vertical appraisals are to test the extremeties of the field and unlikely to be flowtested.

M

[leonchai]

Why has santos stated in their quarterly that the maitland 3H well is "P&A. Non-commercial gas" ??

I hope we can get some clarification from TAP!

[Sharp737]

Far from it. Check the above link to the TAP report. It says that "Tap is very pleased..."

Now they are looking at drilling up to another 2 wells into Maitland just to see/check the extent of the gas field. It is certainly looking like another development and that Maitland 3H well was only an appraisal well, not a development well. They come later from the platform put in the most suitable position within the field so that they can reach all corners of the field. That's how I see it anyways.

Sharp

[Sharp737]

-Yeah I Agree the sellers of PPP aren't giving any value for Maitland and basicly pricing PPP as though it was uncommercial yet they are drilling vertical appraisals which should flow significantly higher than the constricted 6mmcfg I'm happy to keep holding and buying more little downside with PPP (24c asx) a screaming takeover 40c-50c IMHO

And if TAP or AWE or NOG offered around that price, I would take it!! Or perhaps a share offer or a share + cash offer or a choice.

I still wonder WHY PPP do not make many comments on Maitland...like TAP does? Perhaps they will at the AGM, which unfortunately is in Oz. No offence against the cuzzies but if it was here in NZ, I think I would go. But I think that if NOG wanted to take PPP over, then PPP management would not say too many positive things about PPP so that the price languished a little and so that an offer would be more readily accepted....???? You gotta wonder eh...

But again, I have to ask WHY does not PPP make the sort of comments that TAP makes on Maitland?? Ie. TAP's comment was "Tap is very pleased with the testing conducted on Maitland-3H, both technically and operationally. The testing programme deomonstrates that the flow potential of the Maitland reservoir is well in excess of the restricted test flow. Sand influx is not an uncommon reservoir characteristic and production wells with sand screens are now being designed. Representative gas samples, flow data and pressure build-up data will also be analysed in the coming weeks to confirm flow potential of the reservoir and development scenarios."

To me, there can be only ONE reason as stated above.....and it was hinted at recently by NOG that they are planning aquisitions. Yes, I know they sold some PPP's but they needed the money then. Things are different now, Tui money is coming in thick and fast. So, could a cash offer be coming? Or as share offer? Or a share + cash offer? Or a choice of these? And but what has NOG to gain?

1. PPP's 10% of Tui
2. PPP's cash quickly mounting
3. PPP's 10% of Maitland which will be developed IMO
4. PPP's licenses, Oz and Taranaki. Oi and Toke prosepects have got to be attractive
5. PPP's extra Tui reserves once announced in coming months

NOG won't want to dilute their shares too much so it could be cash....could be worth their while. Time will tell

Sharp

[Sharp737]

".....The exploration we're looking at is New Zealand focused at this stage. We're going to have a very strong go at growing and we want it in meaningful tranches."

The high level of inherent risk and investment needed by the industry requires a sustained return.

"That's what makes us look at acquisition."

The company is working on a number of strategies to fund future acquisition. Much depends on the size of the target but Salisbury says it could include further debt, going to the equity market, share placement, issuing equity to another company or even forward selling oil production...."

It's this sort of comment that has me wondering. Definitely companies are being lined up....Is PPP one of them?

Sharp

[the machine]

tap has signed up for a lot more gas sales from 2013, but they do not say where it is coming from. hoping maitland is a big part of the supply.

M

[shasta]

".....The exploration we're looking at is New Zealand focused at this stage. We're going to have a very strong go at growing and we want it in meaningful tranches."

The high level of inherent risk and investment needed by the industry requires a sustained return.

"That's what makes us look at acquisition."

The company is working on a number of strategies to fund future acquisition. Much depends on the size of the target but Salisbury says it could include further debt, going to the equity market, share placement, issuing equity to another company or even forward selling oil production...."

It's this sort of comment that has me wondering. Definitely companies are being lined up....Is PPP one of them?

Sharp

Sharp

I don't think NZO are after PPP, else they would have done so earlier.

AWE & TAP in that order would be after PPP (just my opinion)

AWE in a script based "friendly" takeover perhaps?

If AWE don't get PPP, NZO is the next size fish available ...

I believe both AWE & TAP will need a decent size acquistion (say a PPP/NZO) else they themselves could get swiped by Santos etc

I believe the AWE/NZO/PPP JV could one day be one company ...

Would take AWE $500m with plenty of change to get both NZO & PPP.

I see AWE as the only company with a chance of swallowing NZO without a hostile fight.

What chance a cashed up PPP taking out NZO? :eek:

Both are in the same boat as TAP, use your cash/revenues else a predator will & at the moment PPP/NZO cashflows would just about fund there own takeover!

Personally i would like to see both stand alone, but i do see some M&A action ahead in the O&G game.

[Sharp737]

tap has signed up for a lot more gas sales from 2013, but they do not say where it is coming from. hoping maitland is a big part of the supply.

M

Machine, that's interesting. I wonder if there is more in the "pipeline" too

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20071026/pdf/315df6cxzk155z.pdf

Shasta, you may well be right concerning NOG but stranger things have happened. TR and family have a decent sized hunk of PPP and of course Mr Tattersfield has over 11% himself so if NOG did a takeover, they would be party to it. If AWE or TAP were to have any chance of taking over/merging with PPP, it would have to be a "friendly" offer to succeed. I don't know about PPP taking over NOG though, can't see that. But I do agree that AWE itself could ultimately become a target.

Sharp

[Hawke]

WOW -with the TUI/TAPIS Crude price now hovering the USD $95.00 per barrel this cash cow PPP must be drowning with cash inflows..... a few Co's must be doing the numbers on taking this minnow out.

Mine are for sale at .45c

Hawke.

[Alkie]

Does anyone know what the NZ govt will do on the spill? Will it be a big fine, a smack on the hand or what, or do we just wait and see as it could be a random thing?

[boysy]

whats classified as a big fine in the scemes of things i mean at 45,000 bopd jv partners are raking in 5ish million dollars a day enough said really

[Hawke]

If its confirmed as being TUI related oil - they raised the issue of an inital discharge of "well produced water". So they did good in first rasing this initial alarm.

If its TUI oil- they should just pay the clean-up costs...... direct to council - $50,000 would well cover all the drama of 6 cubic metres of blacker than normal sand.

And then a "we will be more careful declaration"- issue resolved!

Hawke.

[Taijon]

Release of the quarterly report seems to have thrown investors with the share price hitting 21.5 cents. Can anyone see whats causing concern? The next quarterly should have a lot more revenue.

[Sharp737]

I think there is some pretty touchy people out there. The quarterly does not show any Tui income money yet which we know is substantial. The same as for the NOG quarterly to 30th September. Perhaps some investors saw this as a bad sign and sold, don't know.

However, look to the Annual Report on 14th November. That should bring good news. If it doesn't, then I would be very surprised and would wonder why. Should be all good though, very good. And but wait.....Tui upgrade on the way....and Maitland development update....more apparaisals....

Sharp

[Sharp737]

Nice mention of Maitland in TAP's quarterly report...from page 2...."substantial flow potential...."

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20071031/pdf/315j7lbyp7cjl9.pdf

Now that is looking good to me :)

Sharp

[digger]

Sharp737,keep it in mind that potential means just that potential ,that is all.I am now a little more reserved given that the first apprasial did not in itself do the job. I also wonder if this statement in quartly was written sometime before and was not updated. Would love to be wrong but for now will play it quitely.

[Sharp737]

Hi digger.

I think that the TAP quarterly is updated and that Maitland is looking very good personally.

Just check out TAP's Maitland comments:

"Tap is very pleased with the testing conducted on Maitland-3H, both technically and operationally. The testing programme demonstrates that the flow potential of the Maitland reservoir is well in excess of the restricted test flow. Sand influx is not an uncommon reservoir characteristic and production wells with sand screens are now being designed. Representative gas samples, flow data and pressure build-up data will also be analysed in the coming weeks to confirm flow potential of the reservoir and development scenarios".

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20071022/pdf/315881sny0v945.pdf

The consideration of extra appraisal wells is also very positive to see the extent of the field.

Probably the reason for PPP's poor performance in recent months is that one or more big holders just want to sell for whatever reason. That's life. But one thing is for sure, PPP is heaping up a lot of cash!

Sharp

[boysy]

Though NZO is heaping up cash as well and both of their prices are going sideways makes you think if a price correction will happen soon.

[Sharp737]

Tui 4H development well next year with likely increased Tui oil reserves
Maitland looking good...development possible by 2010
More exploration etc

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20071114/pdf/315t241vgljkt2.pdf

Sharp

[boysy]

Pan Pacific Petroleum NL - Announcements




PPP
14/11/2007
ADDRESS

REL: 1218 HRS Pan Pacific Petroleum NL

ADDRESS: PPP: CHAIRMAN'S ADDRESS TO SHAREHOLDERS

PAN PACIFIC PETROLEUM NL
CHAIRMAN'S ADDRESS

ANNUAL GENERAL MEETING
14 NOVEMBER 2007

Welcome to this year's annual general meeting.

Taranaki Basin

The past 12 months have been very eventful for the company, with the
investment in the Tui Area oil fields now paying off handsomely.
Oil started flowing from Tui on 30 July this year, and field production
exceeds 40,000 barrels/day (PPP 10%). This is expected to build up further,
towards 50,000 b/d. Pan Pacific is benefiting from currently high oil
prices. Oil sales are negotiated by the Tui JV marketing agent, Mitsui & Co,
benchmarked to Tapis.

In the current financial year, the price recoverable for approximately 8% of
Pan Pacific's production is effectively capped at US$92/barrel as a result of
calls sold as part of the company's hedging program.

The oil reserves on which the Tui development investment decision was made,
have since been increased by 15% to 32 million barrels under an interim
review carried out by the JV operator after the production wells had been
drilled. This number may change again, once a full re-evaluation has been
completed. The drilling of a further producer well into Tui (Tui 4H) seems
quite likely, probably during 2008, which could help sustain levels of
production.
Elsewhere within the Tui permit area, drilling of the Tieke and Taranui
prospects was unsuccessful in locating commercial finds in the F Sands of the
Kapuni formation, which is the level from which Tui oil is produced.
However, the D Sands interval is worth re-visiting through re-mapping, to
ascertain if there is a reasonable target at that level.

The other Taranaki exploration well, Hector (in PEP38483) was also
disappointing. Evaluation of the results of the Hector-1 well, including
seismic depth conversion work, is continuing to determine whether another
well may be justified.

Pan Pacific's third permit interest in the offshore Taranaki Basin, PEP38499,
contains some interesting leads, including Toke. 400km of 2D seismic data
was acquired in July this year, with interpretation and mapping expected to
be complete by March 2008.

Carnarvon Basin
While the drilling of wells into the Libris and Bricklanding prospects during
September-December 2006, were sub-commercial and dry, respectively, the more
recent re-visiting of the Maitland gas field (Retention Lease WA-33R) is
showing promise as a future development.

The Maitland field appraisal drilling program commenced in August 2007 with
drilling of Maitland-2 and 2CH, where this latter well obtained 2 cores in
the target reservoir. This was followed by Maitland-3H, a 500m horizontal
test well, from which flow testing was completed last month at a
surface-constrained flow rate of 6 million c/ft per day.

It is considered that on production a substantially higher flow rate may well
be achieved.

Well test, core and petrophysical analysis and simulation work are all
progressing through the JV operator Apache Energy. Results of this work are
expected within 3 months.

The forward program is then likely to be further delineation drilling, to
determine the norther and southern extents of the field - this drilling may
be completed by June 2008, ahead of a development decision.

With tie-back to existing infrastructure, it should be feasible to achieve
production in 2010.

Financial

On the financial side of things, obviously high oil prices are building Pan
Pacific's cash reserves. The lending bank's agreement that the Tui "project
completion" test criteria have been met, is imminent, following which oil
proceeds received so far will be unlocked and freely available to the
company. Repayment of the bank loan will commence at the same time, and
repayment schedule, currently spread over six years, on a reducing basis
which reflects the production profile, may be accelerated if Pan Pacific so
wishes.

We do need to keep sufficient cash to fund other activities, including likely
additional drilling into the Maitland gas field in the first half of calendar
2008

There is also the potential for another Tui production well to be drilled
during 2008.

Also, while exploration drilling has yet to be firmed up, directors wish to
ensure the company retains enough cash to drill new discoveries, which may be
made in our existing Taranaki permit areas, or in new plays.

Management

The company does not operate any joint venture projects, and has been run on
relative low overheads, in light of its involvement in the Tui development,
Maitland and other activities - so thanks to the staff and our regular
consultants.

Outlook

Pan Pacific's directors, who together represent a substantial equity in the
company, don't want Pan Pacific to rest on its Tui laurels.
The Board is evaluating ways to expose the company to greater upside by
getting involved in new exploration drilling plays, possibly assisted via
recruitment of an exploration-focussed geoscientist as a full-time CEO and/or
through structuring an alliance with another like-minded company, or through
conventional farm-ins.

Tony Radford
Chairman

Interesting what are peoples thoughts about the last bit ?

[bermuda]

PPP will be looking to merge with an oiler that has significant proven permits and Management.


The Merged company can then use PPP consistent future cashflows to exploit the permits.

Somethings up

[Sharp737]

I hope you are right Bermuda because I must admit, the address was not very inspiring even though the money is just pouring in! But would the directors accept a merger? That's question and I must say, I do feel somewhat negative at the moment...I shouldn't be but I am at the present time and if the directors would not be prepared to merge with another larger oiler, then they are a bunch of blimmin' slackers IMO.

Sorry, but I am somewhat disapointed with and disiullusioned with PPP management. Even if they get a CEO full time, I am still reserved. Heck, didn't think I would say this but that's how I'm feeling

Sharp

[the machine]

recall that tui H 4 was a backup in event one of the 2 production wells did not produce as expected [on the side of the field]. Looks like as both wells producing as or better than expected then H 4's potential can be upgraded from a back up to an straight extra production well on other side of the field.

as the sands are very good in allowing oil [and water] to flow, then what would happen if say after the water cut increases to say 40% the well was taken off line for say a month - in this situation would the oil lower down and on the extremes flow higher up into the middle and displace some of the water - bring back on line and water cut back to say 30%.

at same time still producing 50,000 bpd from other wells

irrespective, talk of extra production well should go hand in hand with substantial increase in reserves - 20% is a nice round number

whens the awe agm - maybe more details then

M

[the machine]

awe agm is nov 22nd - see what theysay about tui

M

[Sharp737]

Yes, you are right machine. We could be in line for a very good reserve increase so will watch AWE's take on Tui closely.

On the positive side, things could be going on 'behine the scenes' that we are not aware of and because of this possibility, it would pay to hold. Something has got to give.

[boysy]

reserves upgrade PPP up 5 not a bad day at the office

[the machine]

wait to the asx opens and see what happens there.

best news have had today [sofar]

M

[Sharp737]

Tui oil reserves increased by 30 pc - NZOG
NZPA | Thursday, 22 November 2007
New Zealand Oil & Gas said today oil reserves for the Tui Area Oil Project had been increased to 41.7 million barrels, 30 per cent above the previous estimate and nearly 50 per cent above pre-development predictions.
NZOG shares jumped 9c (9 percent) to $1.10 on the news.
The new figure for proven and probable reserves compares with estimated reserves of 27.9 million barrels on which the Tui project in off-shore Taranaki was first sanctioned, and an interim re-estimate of 32 million barrels following completion of the development drilling campaign.
NZOG has a 12.5 per cent share of Tui. Its share of the reserves has increased from 3.5 million barrels (pre-development) to 5.2 million barrels.
The field produces a light sweet crude that is generally sold, with freight and quality differentials, against the Tapis benchmark crude, which has recently surpassed $US100 ($NZ135.06) a barrel.
That means the upgrade at current prices had a gross value of more than $200 million.
The increase in reserves follows a reassessment of the field by the operator (AWE) based on interpretation of re-processed 3D seismic data, a more detailed assessment of the Kapuni reservoir and the integration of the production data from the fields since production began in July, the company said.
The increased reserves assume production from the existing four wells, plus the completion of an additional development well in the Tui field. Preliminary planning for drilling of this well has begun, with drilling targeted for 2009.
Since July 30 the field has produced 4.4 million barrels of oil and production rates of up to 50,000 barrels a day had been achieved.
Based on the current reservoir and facility performance and the upgrade in reserves, AWE has revised the Tui gross oil production for the year to June 30, 2008 up from 10 million barrels to about 11 million barrels (about 1.4 million barrels net to NZOG).

http://www.stuff.co.nz/4284265a13.html

Sharp

[boysy]

Yeah though currently the market depth aint looking to crash hot on ASX for PPP but hey time will tell still a while to opening.

[boysy]

Could be an interesting AWE agm today i wonder if anything will be said about potential aquisitions could be very interesting.

[Sharp737]

Yes, lets just get a handle on this announcement....it's an EXTRA 10 MILLION BARRELS OF OIL!!! Wow, that's like there was a strike at Taranui!!

Tui is beginning to chuck out some real surprises! 42M barrels of recoverable reserves is the biggest oil field in New Zealand to date by far!

PPP has got to be looking attractive....to AWE perhaps?

Sharp

[boysy]

well are we guessing that alot of the people that bought 30c+ have bailed out today thoughts ?

[Sharp737]

Oil bonanza set to make NZOG millions
By JAMES WEIR - The Dominion Post | Friday, 23 November 2007
The Tui oilfield, off the Taranaki coast, is almost a third bigger than thought - news that pushed up partner New Zealand Oil and Gas' share price 11 cents to $1.12.
The oil reserves for the field are now put at 41.7 million barrels, up from the previous estimate of 32 million barrels. Getting about half of the extra reserves will involve drilling one more well, which is expected to cost tens of millions of dollars.
A large part of the reserves will come out of the field in the next two years, but smaller amounts over at least the next decade.
New Zealand Oil & Gas has 12.5 per cent of the field.
Its share of reserves has moved up to 5.2 million barrels, potentially worth about $600 million over the life of the field if oil prices remain at such high levels.
The increase puts NZOG in an even better position to carry out plans to expand, through a "growth strategy".
"We are looking at further exploration, possible farm-ins to other permits and possible acquisitions," NZOG spokesman Chris Roberts said.
Revenues are likely to be well above last month's estimates of $100 million this financial year and could head close to $170 million on present high oil prices.
"If the oil price stays where it is, we are going to have significantly higher revenue this financial year than we predicted," Mr Roberts said.
The Tui field produces a light crude that is generally sold, with freight and quality differentials, against the Tapis benchmark crude, which has recently surpassed US$100 (NZ$135.06) a barrel.
Production costs at Tui are about NZ$15 a barrel, so the actual return to NZOG and partners from each barrel could be close to NZ$120.
The 1.7 million barrel increase in reserves for NZOG has a gross value of more than NZ$200 million, before production and freight costs.
It will get revenue from 1.4 million barrels from Tui this financial year, worth at least NZ$100 a barrel after production costs, and possibly as much as NZ$120 a barrel, implying revenues could be as much as $168 million.
Mr Roberts said NZOG was looking to expand throughout New Zealand, but was not looking overseas. United States oil company Swift is marketing its New Zealand interests, but NZOG would not say if it was considering that. Swift's interests include the Rimu-Kauri and Tawn fields, two natural gas processing plants, an oil processing plant and oil and gas pipelines.
"If there is an opportunity, currently available, we are investigating it," Mr Roberts said. "We want to cherry-pick the best opportunities. We are not going to make an investment for the sake of finding a home for the cashflows."
However, NZOG needs to repay the debt on Tui's development, US$27.5 million. Most will be repaid this financial year, as will a further $15 million on working capital.
It also needs to spend about $160 million on its share of the offshore Kupe gasfield development, with $60 million already committed and the balance due by mid-2009.
The Tui field is about 50 kilometres offshore and cost almost US$270 million (NZ$360 million) to develop. It is 42.5 per cent owned and operated by Australian exploration company AWE. Japanese firm Mitsui holds 35 per cent and Pan Pacific Petroleum 10 per cent.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/4284783a13.html

Sharp

[the machine]

looks like there were some early trades of ppp in nz today [monday here] as noticed at one stage 10 trades totalled 1,000,000 shares = av 100,000 per trade.

one wonders if there will be any more news this year as maitland outcome probably 2-3 months away and the extra tui hole decision is probably a month or 2 off.

awe do have a semi sub rig booked for nz next year - not sure when - probably 2nd half.


what will ppp do with all those $? push more drilling off north west coast of wa maybe

M

[boysy]

with 345,117 barrels pumped out of TUI last week thats around $4.5m gross income for the week not a bad take for a company currently valued at $160m

[Sharp737]

REL: 1155 HRS New Zealand Oil and Gas Limited

MINE: NZO: RECORD OIL PRODUCTION FROM TUI

Production from the Tui Area Oil Project off the Taranaki coast has set new
records.

Last week oil production from the field totalled 345,117 barrels, an average
of 49,302 barrels a day. This is the highest weekly production total to date.

On 21 November a one day record of 56,467 barrels was achieved.

Since the start of production on 30 July 2007, the Tui Area Oil Project has
produced approximately 4.7 million barrels of oil. 4.5 million barrels has
been shipped, mainly to refineries on the east coast of Australia. The next
shipment is due in early December.

These exports have contributed to record New Zealand trade figures for
August, September and October. Economists are predicting that Tui production
will add 0.3 percent to New Zealand's GDP in the September quarter.

Proved and probable (2P) reserves in the Tui Area Oil Fields have been
upgraded by the operator to 41.7 million barrels, almost 50% higher than the
estimated reserves of 27.9 million barrels on which the project was
sanctioned.

Estimated production for the 2007/08 year has been increased from 10 to at
least 11 million barrels.

New Zealand Oil and Gas Ltd (NZOG) has a 12.5% share of the Tui Area Oil
Project.

[the machine]

thought of some more news due any day - oil sales have matched in value the development costs and also the bank releasing oil revenue after recognising the completion of the development - maybe another 5c to the sp - make a nice Xmas present.

M

[Nitaa]

im a little surprised that ppp hasnt responded that well to the reserve upgrade compared to nzo and awe. since ppp is more leveraged than both nzo and awe in relation to their market cap then i would have thought the sp would have been the most responsive.

tr and at must be laughing all the way to the bank at present.

[boysy]

a few more buyers lining up to buy PPP

[Onthemoney]

Shhh am about to make a move.....

[Paddie]

Shhh am about to make a move.....



I am so excited I won't be able to sleep tonight.


Paddie

[the machine]

Shhh am about to make a move.....


bring it on OTM

see tap the other week still talking up maitland

regards
M

[boysy]

well a few big buyers on the horizon what are peoples views ? 2:1 buy sell ratio and not much depth on sellers side what is happening

[Hawke]

Sommeethings Up with PPP- good run on the shares on the ASX.
Perhaps its the rumour of Tui being a 100 million BBL oil recovery field?????

Mine are for sale at 40cps+!

Hawke.

[boysy]

lets hope thats the case but honestly with no news in the coming months what is with this movement oil down NZO and PPP up ?

[sideline]

lets hope thats the case but honestly with no news in the coming months what is with this movement oil down NZO and PPP up ?

it's just complementary - previously it used to be oil up and NZO down!

Must be some upgrade/broker recommendation or something that hasn't hit the
public newswire yet. Also it is company specific - AWE is not up.

[Onthemoney]

One last move before the market closes in AUS

[boysy]

clearly people know something we dont ?

[Mr Tommy]

clearly people know something we dont ?

See there were 176 trades on ASX today, over 6m shares.

[boysy]

any ideas as to what bought this on apart from a re rating from brokers ?

[the machine]

One last move before the market closes in AUS

trust you have been busy today OTM

regards

M

[boysy]

looks like another busy day already bids on asx for A$0.30

[Sharp737]

Hmmmmmm.....wonder what's up? :)

Sharp

[JBmurc]

What's up is investors are putting the numbers together at $100bbl US+ Oil prices
I'm personal hoping some weak holders will sell me some shares may have to buy on the ASX the NZX is a right slow market like pulling teeth for the bids & offers to get close both OGC PPP have large gaps

[Sharp737]

Yeah, got a mate snapping up PPP's on any weakness....he will do well :)

[the machine]

bought another 30,000 today@ 22c au.

expect the quarterly next week will show au$50m + sales for the 3 months / january.

that should add minimum 5x au to the sp.

M

[Hawke]

Buying PPP last week was just like paying someone 60c for $1.00 coins.

Watch the comming and future profit Ann's blow the shareprice up and out of the water.
Cash is king and they will have lots!

Yes I hold and got more last week!

Hawke.

[manxman]

Buying PPP last week was just like paying someone 60c for $1.00 coins.

Watch the comming and future profit Ann's blow the shareprice up and out of the water.
Cash is king and they will have lots!

Yes I hold and got more last week!

Hawke.

How long do you reckon, between the quarterly cash flow report and the market waking up? It usually takes the analyst community a couple of sleeps to do the simple stuff, and the numbers will be so big in this case that they will have to take off their shoes to do the sums.
My pick is no big move before next Tuesday.
Then the Herald will dress the figures up.
I'm looking forward to a series of incisive stories

New Zealand Herald October 2009 TUI FIELD DECLINES FOR SEVENTEEN STRAIGHT MONTHS
They can run a continuous bad news story on this.

Mx

[the machine]

How long do you reckon, between the quarterly cash flow report and the market waking up? It usually takes the analyst community a couple of sleeps to do the simple stuff, and the numbers will be so big in this case that they will have to take off their shoes to do the sums.
My pick is no big move before next Tuesday.
Then the Herald will dress the figures up.
I'm looking forward to a series of incisive stories

They can run a continuous bad news story on this.

Mx

asx will be the driver for ppp sp.

at time of release of the quarterly, [along with awe/nzo's quarterleys] if its a bad news day
then tui may be largely overlooked.

given present market conditions, then thats why only hoping for a 5c au increase in the sp to 27c au.

maitland could also be a bit of a driver if any positive news as well.

M

[Sharp737]

Good to see your comments Machine...been bit of a lean time lately

Sharp

[Hawke]

Mr Market is re-awaking to the 35-50c per share that will likely be produced by the Tui oil field!
Raging bargain- bring on the profit news!

Hawke.

[the machine]

can't wait to see a P/E ratio in the press.

On todays closing it it could be as low as 1.5/1.

question is will the quarterly qualify for the P/E ratio or do we have to wait for the half yearly.

Go PPP

M

[the machine]

can't wait to see a P/E ratio in the press.

On todays closing it it could be as low as 1.5/1.

question is will the quarterly qualify for the P/E ratio or do we have to wait for the half yearly.

Go PPP

M

half yearly it is

[Taijon]

The quarterly has a section headed "New Ventures". It says "Directors consider the strong performance and robust cash flows derived from Tui places the company in an excellent position for further growth".

This essentially says trust us, we are your directors and we know what we are doing. And they will go on to really look after shareholders. However it could in fact turn out just the way Macdunk has alluded to several times as to what might happen with NZO. The directors will sink all the profits into a series of dry holes!!!!!!!!!!!!! Of course the directors have substantial shareholdings themselves so one hopes they will canvass many options.

The AWE announcement said the Directors are actively looking at a capital management strategy, now the company is almost debt free. This could result presumably in the return of some capital to shareholders tax-free. Hopefully PPP will look at something like this too.

While we have vague statements about looking for further growth, the shareprice will likely go nowhere, continuing to frustrate shareholders.

[boysy]

has anything specific been said about what ppp will do with income recived from TUI ?

[Nitaa]

The quarterly has a section headed "New Ventures". It says "Directors consider the strong performance and robust cash flows derived from Tui places the company in an excellent position for further growth".

This essentially says trust us, we are your directors and we know what we are doing. And they will go on to really look after shareholders. However it could in fact turn out just the way Macdunk has alluded to several times as to what might happen with NZO. The directors will sink all the profits into a series of dry holes!!!!!!!!!!!!! Of course the directors have substantial shareholdings themselves so one hopes they will canvass many options.

The AWE announcement said the Directors are actively looking at a capital management strategy, now the company is almost debt free. This could result presumably in the return of some capital to shareholders tax-free. Hopefully PPP will look at something like this too.

While we have vague statements about looking for further growth, the shareprice will likely go nowhere, continuing to frustrate shareholders.

Puttiing their money into dry holes? Well (no pun intended) that is the nature of the business. If you dont look you wont know.

Most will know i am not a big fan of TR. So i will always keep in check as to what is really going on. PPP has strong correlations with NZO so as a guess, i suspect they will tender for new blockage within the Taranki Basin for a start. It would be unwise for them to tell specifics as the world changes on a daily basis. So frankly i am a little surprised that you expect PPP to spill all their intentions when their is too many variables in place.

Yes your right about TR and AT having substantial holdings so it would be foolish of them to just throw money away willy nilly. With that in mind they are in a good position to sell out at a good price to any consortium who wants to take over this company.

discl. still hold this stock but sold most of shares at 35 cps last year. Anything 25 and under i would jump into if i had the spare cash

[Crypto Crude]

NPV per share is 30cents with a dscount rate of 10%....
Market has ignored two upgrades to reserves...
everything looking fine here...
:cool:
.^sc

[the machine]

NPV per share is 30cents with a dscount rate of 10%....
Market has ignored two upgrades to reserves...
everything looking fine here...
:cool:
.^sc

except the sp - don't they know we have a tax bill to pay and want to sell some ppp - about 40,000 for 30c au!

M

[Tok3n]

They have nearly enough money now to buy 2x NWE :)

[Crypto Crude]

tok3n,
maybe yesterday Pan could have bought two Norwesters....
Im not sure that Pan could afford 2 norwesters today...
AED closed up 40%....
:D
.^sc

[JBmurc]

I still believe if maitland is commercial TAP will takeover or merge with PPP eitherway PPP holders will be 100% better off if maitland comes in.
A merged PPP/TAP would certainly have the(200mill+) cash to explore further into there NZ permits

-Off the TAP website-Tap Oil currently has two main areas of operations, these being Australia and New Zealand. Australian operations cover primarily the North Western Shelf of Australia (NWS) and the Victorian based Gippsland Basin, whilst New Zealand covers both offshore Taranaki and offshore areas on the East coast.

[the machine]

in todays local sunday times a broker gave a buy recommendation for ppp on back of racking in the $$$ & talk of a dividend.
have not read the article myself.

personally rate chances of ppp doubling in value over next 2 months on back of tui.

maitland and corvus are extra value, as is any yui upgrade.

M

[JBmurc]

-Up 6.6% to 24.5c on the ASX getting some decent interest finally

[the machine]

Tui could exceed annual production forecast by 25%: analyst

Monday, 25 February 2008
Neil Ritchie, New Zealand

OPERATOR Australian Worldwide Exploration may be able to squeeze another three million barrels from the Tui Area oil pools off Taranaki, New Zealand to bring the field’s total production for the June year to 15 million barrels, according to an independent report for partner New Zealand Oil & Gas.



headlines from energy review

so if come june 30 and production has delivered this then ppp could earn more than their present market cap.
something has to give and expect it will the the sp - going way up

M

[JBmurc]

With all that cash if they don't buyback some of there own shares or pay a divie or have any JV drills coming up soon(Maitland costs if its commercial) maybe even buying a 5% share of another company ,with all the bargins going round STX PSA TAP NZO etc or say that and 5% of there own shares aswell be better than keeping it all in the bank would certainly wake the market up(the unloved PPP takes a 5% holding in ? ,PPP MD states Jnr market like PPP is massively undervalued investing small amount of its massive cash balance to Mrktcap? )

-In many ways a PPP-STX merge-friendly Takover would be great PPP have the cash STX have the mangerment and a great amount of drill targets & permits an US,AUS,NZ OIL&GAS mid cap within a couple yrs

[Nitaa]

They could also be waiting on the outcom of tendered permits, farmot or farm ins etc otherwise they may end up with a cash flow problem before they know it.

[Corporate]

CASH!

Does anyone care to predict how much cash PPP currently have?

[the machine]

CASH!

Does anyone care to predict how much cash PPP currently have?

after making scheduled repayments for tui, receipts yet to come for oli delivered = say aud$50m in the bank

M

[Sharp737]

Wonder if a maiden dividend is coming?? 2cps??

[Corporate]

Does anyone else think the MC is to low for this stock. As of yesterday tui has produced 9 million barrels of which 900,000 are PPP's (10%). The average price per barrel noted in NZO's latest announcement was US$89.

900,000*89 = US$80,100,000 for 8 months.

This compared to a MC of A$156,000,000 --- US$145,000,000

Potentially the US$80m revenue could be $120m over 12 months.

Have I looked at this wrong, or does buying at current prices seem a no brainer?

[Onthemoney]

Back up the truck. I am going to make this fly.... You watch....