Pan Pacific Petroleum Nl (PPP)

[Corporate]

Back up the truck. I am going to make this fly.... You watch....

Sorry i don't understand what you are saying?

[Onthemoney]

Just watch.... and you will see....

[the machine]

given nzo dividend and ppp having a heap of cash then IMO they will pay a dividend as well - say au 2c per share.
This takes into consideration only 10% of tui and higher number of shares on issue.

IMO ppp is good value up to au 40c with no dividend.


in 2007 ppp half year came out mid march 13th? and awe feb 28, so would expect next
"tui high impact news" will be awe.

what will it be?

M

[Corporate]

Just watch.... and you will see....

Lol well if you're going to buy a mountain full of this stock let me in first with my small parcel!! :D

[the machine]

Just watch.... and you will see....

OTM - market yet to reflect any flying today

M

[the machine]

OTM - market yet to reflect any flying today

M


OTM, and today?

[Onthemoney]

Lets just say my funds were not accessible yesterday and is that one hell of a story. All set now....

[Sehnsucht888]

I still haven't seen anything I would define as flying either...

[Taijon]

Hopefully they will fly after the half year results are released on 5 March. In the meantime it would be good if the engines started to rev up.

[Nitaa]

Confirmation. Yes PT is correct. Its about to fly. Captain has asked all passengers to put on your seatbelts.

[Sehnsucht888]

PT is correct???? I haven't seen the tiger here recently.... OTM is the one predicting big things, (and that he/she will be the driving force), but so far the evidence is far from visible.
Yes, the results should be stellar in line with NZO's and that must be widely expected, and is to a degree evidenced by the small jump this week....
But there seems to be more sailing, than flying (wind has been observed rather than something else that I can't find a suitable analogy link for – its been a long week)..

[Corporate]

So as a NZder, what is the view on buying the PPP shares on the ASX versus NZX?

Higher turnover on the ASX, however risk of currency movements?


Just interested in your views?

[the machine]

Hopefully they will fly after the half year results are released on 5 March. In the meantime it would be good if the engines started to rev up.

please clarify details of when half yearly is due to be announced - was there an announcement from ppp to this effect?

thanks

M

[shasta]

So as a NZder, what is the view on buying the PPP shares on the ASX versus NZX?

Higher turnover on the ASX, however risk of currency movements?


Just interested in your views?

PPP is a buy no matter what exchange you want (ASX/NZX).

If you think the NZD will drop v the AUS then buy on the ASX & vice versa.

Disc: been buying ASX since the NZD was over 90c AUS

[upside_umop]

So as a NZder, what is the view on buying the PPP shares on the ASX versus NZX?

Higher turnover on the ASX, however risk of currency movements?


Just interested in your views?

Not sure on relative turnover, but because its dual listed, you should be indifferent to where you purchase PPP wrt to currency. Why? Any change in exchange rate will accordingly adjust the share price between the two exchanges, so they are very similar and no real gain from arbitrage...hope this makes sense to you. Just check any stock in NZ that is dual listed on the ASX and multiply by the NZD/AUD and you will see that it should match (or be very similar) in relative terms...

upside down

[sideline]

Not sure on relative turnover, but because its dual listed, you should be indifferent to where you purchase PPP wrt to currency. Why? Any change in exchange rate will accordingly adjust the share price between the two exchanges, so they are very similar and no real gain from arbitrage...hope this makes sense to you. Just check any stock in NZ that is dual listed on the ASX and multiply by the NZD/AUD and you will see that it should match (or be very similar) in relative terms...

upside down

That's right, unless a share is really thinly traded on one exchange currency fluctuations don't matter,
the prices will adjust accordingly. Discrepancies arise only if a market isn't liquid.

The shares can also be freely transferred from one market to the other, so you can buy them on the NZX,
transfer your shares to the ASX and sell there. Effectively converting your NZD to AUD without incurring
a margin for the currency exchange (except the brokerage on the two trades).

[Hawke]

With PPP closing strongly today - lets hope for good reporting in two days...........

PPP will be holding the equivalent of 8- 12cps in cash -a small dividend of 1-3cps should be due to shareholders.
This will leave plenty for future developments and not to mention the TENS and MILLIONS is will continue to recieve over comming years from the very generious TUI field.

Go PPP.

Hawke.

[Corporate]

With PPP closing strongly today - lets hope for good reporting in two days...........

PPP will be holding the equivalent of 8- 12cps in cash -a small dividend of 1-3cps should be due to shareholders.
This will leave plenty for future developments and not to mention the TENS and MILLIONS is will continue to recieve over comming years from the very generious TUI field.

Go PPP.

Hawke..

I'm thinking about making a play tomorrow. Riskless? I think there is a gain to be made over the next couple of days

[the machine]

bit of interest ahead of todays half yearly with up half a cent au on hal a million turnover.

hanging out for a very good report with a big boost to the sp

a div would be nice, but not critical

M

[troyvdh]

machine...your right...the trading blip stands out like dogs balls here in NZ......

[the machine]

well the half yearly report shows heaps of $ in the bank and directors looking for new ways to spend it.

can't see it doing a lot for the sp though.

my guess is ppp will be bidding for new acreage in nz or possibly au.

M

[the machine]

one could say not very impressed with the half yearly report, lacking a clear direction and time frame etc.

for a high impact drill(s), its either do all the hard work that takes years or buy into a drill that is very expensive.

the cash that ppp are building could be very handy once maitland development decision is taken [2009 probably] and with no new drills in nz this year then without clear direction then sp will hang in at lower price as per todays closing.

meanwhile $ keep pouring in.

will directors be buying up more stock once they are allowed to?


M

[sideline]

picked up at Forbes.com:
...................................
Twenty-five years ago, the energy sector reached 25% of S&P 500 valuation. At its low it was 6%,
now 11%. If oil surges back to 25% of the index, it will happen in the next couple of years.
...................................

and at bloomberg:
....................
Crude oil for April delivery rose $4.89, or 4.9 percent, to $104.41 a barrel at the 2:30 p.m. close
of floor trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Futures touched $104.64 a barrel,
the highest since trading began in 1983. Prices are up 74 percent from a year ago.
..............


BTW, I found the 70% tax thing a pretty dodgy accounting trick. PPP pay only a maximum
of 20% of net profits in royalties like everyone else in the industry. What are they trying to achieve here?
Is this sort of accounting warranted by Australian tax rules???????

[soletrader]

Well that was a bit of a damp squib. Nothing said there to inspire much confidence. I also notice that Tony Radford appears to be loosing the ability to write, as the Report was signed with an 'X'! (is that legal?)

Sloppy stuff. I had hoped that this Report would signal our long awaited push forwards, but after some 20 years a shareholder I should have known better.

[sideline]

Well that was a bit of a damp squib. Nothing said there to inspire much confidence. I also notice that Tony Radford appears to be loosing the ability to write, as the Report was signed with an 'X'! (is that legal?)

Sloppy stuff. I had hoped that this Report would signal our long awaited push forwards, but after some 20 years a shareholder I should have known better.

TR must be getting senile

[Sharp737]

Yes, the report was not inspiring. How can NOG do so well....and PPP with almost the same interst look like it's doing so bad?

They better have something good or we should band together at the next AGM and sack 'em!

Sharp

[sideline]

Yes, the report was not inspiring. How can NOG do so well....and PPP with almost the same interst look like it's doing so bad?

They better have something good or we should band together at the next AGM and sack 'em!

Sharp

They are raking in similar amounts as NZO, and their costs are similar too. Any differences
in the reported results are either the results of
- some accounting trick - or
- different tax laws as PPP is an Australian company - or
- different reporting standards (I expect IFRS levels the field here!)

[Misc]

What do you guys really expect? Look at the Board.

1. A disinterested and aged TR
2. An aged guy whose groups focus is on Iron Ore in WA (only oil investment is PPP)
3. An aged Jeweller

Out of interest , how many shares are held by posters here? Would it be 1% (5.9m shares) , suspect much less?

Anyway , changes are way overdue and the SP will not regain 30c until change is made and holders can clearly see direction.

IMHO.
Misc

[sideline]

They are raking in similar amounts as NZO, and their costs are similar too. Any differences
in the reported results are either the results of
- some accounting trick - or
- different tax laws as PPP is an Australian company - or
- different reporting standards (I expect IFRS levels the field here!)

On further perusal of the accounts I come to the conclusion that they must be WRONG:

On oil revenue of 51.779 m a NZRoyalties tax of 12.869 m is supposedly paid or accrued
i.e. nearly 25% of the revenue!!
However crown minerals states the royalties are either
- 5% of oil revenue
-20% of net profit from the oil exploration,
only the higher of the two numbers has to be paid in any one year. (NOT both!)

5% of revenue is 2.589 million, 20% of gross profit are 8.121 million.
So just above 8m rather than 12.8 m should be due as royalties.


Even with all these miscalculations a full year EPS of 5c should easily be achievable, since most
costs in the first half year relate to the drilling, not the production. We know from NZO that
production is less than 10USD /barrel!
That gives a PE of less than 5 for PPP --- what is a reasonable PE and consequently
share-price for an oil-producing company???

[the machine]

maybe ppp should consider buying 10% of tap oil - outlay au$24m - tap have some high impact drills coming up and heaps of $ in the bank.

M

[Misc]

More likely to diversify into retirement villages? Yeah Tap are cheap , watch for their next 'gem of a deal' announcement W Africa.... a ripper. Misc

[the machine]

in about 2 weeks tui will have produced the 10,000,000th barrel and one would expect quite a bit of hype. nzo for one will be wanting their sp to be closer to that option conversion price and will milk the 10m barrel announcement.

should do wonders for ppp sp as well.

after that it leaves about 100 days production before june 30 and if tui partners do not update their forecast to june 30 from "at least 12m barrels" one could be excused for thinking the 100 days production left until june 30 might only average 20,000 barrels per day.

am pretty sure tui partners would not want that assumption hanging out there, instead an updated forecast to june 30 would be very appropiate.

M

[digger]

should do wonders for ppp sp as well

If you have 10% of a field and it has done 10million barrels,then PPP will have hit it's one millionth barrel. NZO certainly milestoned the one millionth barrel,so it can be reasonably taken that PPP should also do so.
PPP must be planning some buy up or farm in as they seem a bit of keeping it to themselves what they are going to do with their TUI monies.IT will in the longer term be interesting to compare NZO and PPP as to how they handle the TUI success. NZO in the short term is the better off SP wise but as PPP is keeping the money to further invest[I assume] their future stake could be higher if the investment comes off. Must be a plan here somewhere.

[the machine]

ppp P/E ratio now in local paper @ 7 times [nzo 6 times]

compared to long established producers

woodside 35 times santos 15 times tap oil nil [had a loss last 6 months with dud drills] and awe 39 times

bit surprised with awe being so high, but they had quite a few dud drills.
now debt free so next reporting period should slash the 39 times

lookinhg forward to the 10 million barrels being reached and hope it is announced in time for trading on thursday while markets are open.
that way not only has an impact on the sp but allows a good news story to be in the press over the easter break.

on downside, markets will probably drop going into the long break - more so than the usual friday.

M

[the machine]

ppp had another buy recommendation in the weekend local paper, citing tui
10m barrels production so far
expected 13m+ production by june 30
and reserves review.



M

[macduffy]

Yes. Not exactly hot news but good to get the publicity.

;)

[tim23]

Can you post the article Machine?

[the machine]

Can you post the article Machine?

sorry no can do as weread it in someone else's paper and did not keep it.

it was in the perth sunday times under a broker buy

M

[dsurf]

This article explains what is happening re: PPP's tax position. A must read for holders.

http://www.fnarena.com/index2.cfm?type=dsp_newsitem&n=C966078E-1871-E587-E150C06E3F8F5ADB

To Summarise:

Old tax treatment - produce oil, sell oil, make profit, pay tax

New tax treatment - project production & make a provision for it at current market rates. This means that if MP & reserves increase, then the provision for tax increases. Under new rules the tax is recorded on the P & L. It is NOT PAID until the oil is sold.

This means that the "profit" is reduced by the future provision

[Corporate]

This article explains what is happening re: PPP's tax position. A must read for holders.

http://www.fnarena.com/index2.cfm?type=dsp_newsitem&n=C966078E-1871-E587-E150C06E3F8F5ADB

To Summarise:

Old tax treatment - produce oil, sell oil, make profit, pay tax

New tax treatment - project production & make a provision for it at current market rates. This means that if MP & reserves increase, then the provision for tax increases. Under new rules the tax is recorded on the P & L. It is NOT PAID until the oil is sold.

This means that the "profit" is reduced by the future provision


Seems weird because you are recognizing the tax expense before the income is recognized.

If AWE suspect that there are more reserves than which is currently known by the market it could be advantages for them to hold back on an upgrade. As if reserves increase profit drops.

[digger]

Seems weird because you are recognizing the tax expense before the income is recognized.

If AWE suspect that there are more reserves than which is currently known by the market it could be advantages for them to hold back on an upgrade. As if reserves increase profit drops.

The beginning of this weird tax arrangement began with Roger Douglas. He started on farmers. If you were rearing calves a value was put on then for end of year and that went into income regardless if these animals were sold or not.Many complaints were made at the time but the scheme went ahead. The effect was that you ended up paying tax earlier than you otherwise would. I was never greatly affected as i tended to trade cattle and trading was and still is immediatly taxable if profit occures.What the purpose of altering it now is probable got a lot to do with the fact that the oil dipstick is located with the powers that be.

[rainey]

Should PPP decide to pay a divy in the future, can somebody tell me what the situation is with franking credits

[Tok3n]

Allan Tattersfield added 343,000 more shares to his collection

Wonder when this Opes Prime dump is going to happened.

[the machine]

Allan Tattersfield added 343,000 more shares to his collection

Wonder when this Opes Prime dump is going to happened.

no announcement re AT topping up [at a cheap rice]

M

[Tok3n]

no announcement re AT topping up [at a cheap rice]

M

http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=PPP&E=ASX&N=500516

[bermuda]

http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=PPP&E=ASX&N=500516

Well, if I had the balls I would sell everything and buy PPP.

But RPM , VPE and BOW have me really excited.

PPP will go upwards shortly.

[the machine]

Well, if I had the balls I would sell everything and buy PPP.

But RPM , VPE and BOW have me really excited.

PPP will go upwards shortly.


AT bought the extra ones very cheap.
always a sign when a significant director buys

M

[Tok3n]

AT bought the extra ones very cheap.
always a sign when a significant director buys

M

Thats why I like holding HZN too, so much buying support from them.

Lets hope Alan paid with cash lol

low 20s is now a floor for PPP? given that there's 10c+ worth of cash backing.

[KentBrockman]

Well, if I had the balls I would sell everything and buy PPP.

But RPM , VPE and BOW have me really excited.

PPP will go upwards shortly.

Agree completely.

Tattersfield's recent purchase is too insignificant to be meaningful though.

[manxman]

http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=PPP&E=ASX&N=500516 gives the price paid by AT as $NZ0.22 in what looks like a fairly official appendix 3Y

This morning, we get the report to the NZX quoting a price of $A0.27.

If AT is topping up cheap, that's one thing. If he is paying way over the odds, then WTF is going on.

I can't see either of these prices being correct if the shares were aquired on market, as both the ASX and NZX notices indicate.

Mx

[manxman]

So the revised revised consideration was 22 cents Oz.
Thats better.

[the machine]

one thing with AT's purchase @ au22c, with the various restrictions about when directors can buy and sell, coupled with no news from ppp, it implies nothing is going on that is not already in the public domain.

ie AT could not buy knowing they are about to announce something significant.

the only thing in the public domain is aggressive plans for growing company [obviously zip achieved otherwise AT could not buy] tui production and on the tap oil website drill planning schedule the maitland drills seem to be all but decided to drill.


expect nothing now before the quarterly report, otherwise AT could be in trouble.

meanwhile sp goes sideways on increasing volume.

M

[Dr_Who]

This stock reminds me of NZO below $1.00. Gonna have to accummulate some for my portfolio.

[Romer]

Meanwhile everyone is too busy speculating on NZO to even know that PPP exists!
Their bank account looking healthier by the day!!!
:)

[the machine]

Meanwhile everyone is too busy speculating on NZO to even know that PPP exists!
Their bank account looking healthier by the day!!!
:)


next bit of news is the quarterly[if maitland extra drills not announced beforehand]

the quarterly will be huge for ppp, afterwhich hoping sp will stay above 30c au

m

[Romer]

I had high hopes for the last quarterly - as did obviously lots of others.

Took the opportunity to buy in at a lower price when nothing materialised.

Should be out the end of the month??????

[digger]

Meanwhile everyone is too busy speculating on NZO to even know that PPP exists!
Their bank account looking healthier by the day!!!
:)

PPP what is that? That is right i have a few of them.Been far to busy with NZO's breath taking rise to pay much attention. A bit like NZO a few months ago it went sideways then up.PPP will do the same.AT is still following so we will probably look back on today and kick ourselves for not being more proactive on the buy side.

[bermuda]

next bit of news is the quarterly[if maitland extra drills not announced beforehand]

the quarterly will be huge for ppp, afterwhich hoping sp will stay above 30c au

m

PPP will have to make a statement other than a quarterley to make it stick........and then suddenly it happens....

I mean, this is seriously underated ...and I dont even own any!! (used to own heaps ...sold for more NZO< RPM< BOW>>>COAL GASERS)

Just a matter of time. Oil aint going down. If I had any, I sure wouldnt be selling.

Just checked this post and realised I had not mentioned VPE. THe most viable and seriously
brilliant and undervalued stock I have ever come across.

You guys are about to get your rewards. Well done.

[Nitaa]

Bermuda.. this is another stock i brought on fundamentals. The options were brought at 4.1 cps last year.. converted and sold 70% at 35 cps.. the remaining are all free.

Your right about the shareprice. with oil staying strong over $100 i am ready to invest into the stock but enough money left over if i need to convert nzo.

we know how much cash we can at least expect from tui.. what we dont know is what else we can get. I got very excited when AT backed up his truck, sold off his wife to buy a big load off nzo.

[Dr_Who]

we know how much cash we can at least expect from tui.. what we dont know is what else we can get. I got very excited when AT backed up his truck, sold off his wife to buy a big load off nzo.

Did you mean to say he sold off his mistress? LOL :D

OK, got some PPP in my portfolio. Yippeeee! Go PPP! :)

[the machine]

with apache & santos moving to feed for raindeer then corvas is not that far away - 399m thick gas column and open at bottom.

M

[Dr_Who]

with apache & santos moving to feed for raindeer then corvas is not that far away - 399m thick gas column and open at bottom.

M

Machine, what do you mean?

[the machine]

Machine, what do you mean?



http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/getAnnPdf('/asx/statistics/showAnnouncementPDF.do?idsID=', '00829859', 'Announcement');return false;

this project is very close to the corvus "stranded gas discovery" and think santos and apache both havean interest in corvus

one day corvus willbe developed and coudle double ppp's sp

M

[Dr_Who]

Thanks machine. Look at PPP going for a run today. :):) yippeee

[Mr Tommy]

Thanks machine. Look at PPP going for a run today. :):) yippeee

Not sure what happened to that run last week Dr Who, but some bigger trades in the last few days, and some decent buy volume now building up.

I am hoping there will be some news in the quarterly due out this month about what they are doing with all the Tui dollars.

I have reinvested my NOG dividend in PPP in anticipppppppation.

[the machine]

big trade first up today in nz - someone buying a bargain

expect the quarterly to show usd$40m profit before tax / royalties and after production cost

and almost the same expected for 4th quarter ending june 30

is tui still only producing from 3 holes, with 4th hole left idle?



on asx there has been some sp appreciation in last few weeks, so slowly mr market is seeing the good news

M

[Dr_Who]

I ve got some PPP in my portfolio at lower levels. :)

I am surprise that there are a number of small/mid cap oilers in aussie trading at very good prices. The oil prices have gone up substantially, but these oilers sp have not moved much. Maybe an opportunity to buy some or have I missed something?

[bermuda]

I ve got some PPP in my portfolio at lower levels. :)

I am surprise that there are a number of small/mid cap oilers in aussie trading at very good prices. The oil prices have gone up substantially, but these oilers sp have not moved much. Maybe an opportunity to buy some or have I missed something?

They have all been hit by the ANZ-Opes marginal lending fiasco. Their value hasnt changed, just their sp.

[KentBrockman]

They have all been hit by the ANZ-Opes marginal lending fiasco. Their value hasnt changed, just their sp.


Can see this re-rated soon. PPP is not the one trick pony some make it out to be. Maitland 4 & 5 or are already lined up (check Tap website), and with FID for Reindeer now official, Corvus tie in is only a question of time.

So that's 3 producing assets in the mid/long term horizon, plus more Taranaki activity and othe 'stranded' assets in Carnavon, e.g. Sage.

Looking good.

[Dr_Who]

Some decent buying in PPP this morning. Price being pushed up to 26.5 cetns aussie. :)

[the machine]

Some decent buying in PPP this morning. Price being pushed up to 26.5 cetns aussie. :)

finished @ 27.5 au

still think there is a lot more upside

M

[Hoop]

PPP at 33c has broken upwards out of its 8 month old 24c-31c trading range. A bullish sign.


disc : NZO,PPP,PRC,GPG,MFT

[the machine]

huge buying again on asx today.

up to 29c au at one stage.

imo someone is buying heaps - entering market to buy andonceprice gets to high [for now] they back off, to flush out more sellers.

crunch time will be how it performs tomorrow before the weekend close.

M

[the machine]

talking to my stockbroker today who mentioned that after doing some research into management of ppp, the feedback was rather like "they are treading water" and lacking drive to build the company.

I mentioned AT's purchase last month @ 22c au and that AT could not buy if anything in the wings.

also mentioned that ppp could do a lot worse with their cash than buying $1m of awe & nzo shares every week, but my stockbroker indicated that was probably beyond the thinking of management.

So TR & AT do not have a positive reputation in au amongst stockbrokers

despite all this, cash is king and the numbers in the quarterly report will speak for themselves.

just had a thought, maybe ppp keeping the cash up their sleeve so can fastrack maitland once the delineation wells confirm the size of the field -
like maitland would need say 4 development wells, a platform, and a pipeline to join a hub.

we wait for the quarterly

M

[digger]

talking to my stockbroker today who mentioned that after doing some research into management of ppp, the feedback was rather like "they are treading water" and lacking drive to build the company.

I mentioned AT's purchase last month @ 22c au and that AT could not buy if anything in the wings.

also mentioned that ppp could do a lot worse with their cash than buying $1m of awe & nzo shares every week, but my stockbroker indicated that was probably beyond the thinking of management.

So TR & AT do not have a positive reputation in au amongst stockbrokers

The older and more experienced i get the less respect for stockbrokers i have.The needle has shifed down to about nil now. The one i had in Hamilton always had ads for finance companies but never any push in there newletters about oil company investments.Last time i mentioned this got a frosty reception.Brokers are just toooo interested in a quick profit for themselves than to steer there clints toward an investment in the best interest of the client.Recent example of my friend that got taken out of NZO with a 12% profit in 4 months because the broker talked him into selling as it was a case that you made a good profit and you can never go broke taking a winning. No mention was ever made or considered that the profit would soon be a lot bigger as the broker had his commission as his primary motive.

[Taijon]

Well, if I had the balls I would sell everything and buy PPP.

But RPM , VPE and BOW have me really excited.

PPP will go upwards shortly.

Hi Bermuda, I enjoy your posts and your enthusiasm. Your quote above intrigued me. You have said you don't actually own any PPP curently but had plenty in the past. What is it that has put you off getting back in and buying at least some shares, apart from increasing your holdings in RPM, VPE and BOW? Would selling everything and sticking it all into PPP be that risky (other than it not being wise to have all your eggs in one basket)?

The PPP SP hasn't appreciated anywhere near as fast as NZO in the last few weeks but then the latter has 3 projects on the go. Others have said PPP is not a one trick pony but the SP does seem to languish. Do you think its currently severely undervalued?

Maybe people are concerned at just what the directors are going to do with all the cash thats accumulating. Perhaps a dividend would help get things moving. Hopefully the quarterly will see some action.

[the machine]

Hi Bermuda, I enjoy your posts and your enthusiasm. Your quote above intrigued me. You have said you don't actually own any PPP curently but had plenty in the past. What is it that has put you off getting back in and buying at least some shares, apart from increasing your holdings in RPM, VPE and BOW? Would selling everything and sticking it all into PPP be that risky (other than it not being wise to have all your eggs in one basket)?

The PPP SP hasn't appreciated anywhere near as fast as NZO in the last few weeks but then the latter has 3 projects on the go. Others have said PPP is not a one trick pony but the SP does seem to languish. Do you think its currently severely undervalued?

Maybe people are concerned at just what the directors are going to do with all the cash thats accumulating. Perhaps a dividend would help get things moving. Hopefully the quarterly will see some action.



quarterly is no place for an actual dividend.

it is however where the management should give some indication of the way forward - the absence of which would not go down well. A.T.'s share purchase @ 22c au in March implies nothing new planned at that stage = is 6 weeks seperation to April 30 enough seperation?

still expect an updated tui production forecast until june 30 will come out in the quarterly.

if the management can demostrate a positive way forward, then sp cvould or should jump up past 30c au.

we do own quite a lot of ppp

M

[pietrade]

[QUOTE=digger;195570]
The older and more experienced i get the less respect for stockbrokers i have.The needle has shifed down to about nil now.

You're so right. I (accidently) clicked on the Direct Broking 'Company Research' page . hile I was there I had a look for NZOG. Yep. There they were with a 'Recommendation' == REDUCE. Whover made that recommendation - I wonder what planet they think they're on?

[sideline]

[QUOTE=digger;195570]
The older and more experienced i get the less respect for stockbrokers i have.The needle has shifed down to about nil now.

You're so right. I (accidently) clicked on the Direct Broking 'Company Research' page . hile I was there I had a look for NZOG. Yep. There they were with a 'Recommendation' == REDUCE. Whover made that recommendation - I wonder what planet they think they're on?

AspectHuntley are totally useless when it comes to resource stocks. Of course, if its RIO or BHP
they run with the sheep and upgrade them (after the run) but otherwise you've got be a bank,
insurance or other financial company to be a BUY in their books. What a joke!!!

[digger]

[QUOTE=digger;195570]
The older and more experienced i get the less respect for stockbrokers i have.The needle has shifed down to about nil now.

You're so right. I (accidently) clicked on the Direct Broking 'Company Research' page . hile I was there I had a look for NZOG. Yep. There they were with a 'Recommendation' == REDUCE. Whover made that recommendation - I wonder what planet they think they're on?

It would not suprise me if after the reduce recomendation they personally bought them.

[the machine]

wonder if the big buyer is now active again on asx as high volume back again
[after flushing out the cheap sellers]

M

[Tok3n]

Ignoring the drill run during hector

This is a 2nd bite in the high 20s recently.

PPP seems to really lag all other mid-tier producers and juniors.

[the machine]

Ignoring the drill run during hector

This is a 2nd bite in the high 20s recently.

PPP seems to really lag all other mid-tier producers and juniors.


tomorrows closing price will be a big test, with the markets closed for anzac day it will be interesting what happens leading into the 3 day break

M

[Sharp737]

Just checking TAP Chairman's address today.
Well Maitland looks extremely positive with 2 apparaisal wells for Q3/Q4 this year.
Check it out:

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20080424/pdf/318r905jcsfthz.pdf

I like TAP's very positive view in this report.
Why don't we hear this from PPP management? Or don't seem too anyways

Hey Machine, was over in Perth for couple of weeks just recently. Very nice! Very, very nice!

Sharp

[bermuda]

Hi Bermuda, I enjoy your posts and your enthusiasm. Your quote above intrigued me. You have said you don't actually own any PPP curently but had plenty in the past. What is it that has put you off getting back in and buying at least some shares, apart from increasing your holdings in RPM, VPE and BOW? Would selling everything and sticking it all into PPP be that risky (other than it not being wise to have all your eggs in one basket)?

The PPP SP hasn't appreciated anywhere near as fast as NZO in the last few weeks but then the latter has 3 projects on the go. Others have said PPP is not a one trick pony but the SP does seem to languish. Do you think its currently severely undervalued?

Maybe people are concerned at just what the directors are going to do with all the cash thats accumulating. Perhaps a dividend would help get things moving. Hopefully the quarterly will see some action.

Hi Taijon,
I cant buy back in otherwise I might be had up for sharetrading. I used to have a totally useless portfolio of about 20 stocks that I had compiled through Broker recommendations and tips from friends. Then I read that book about the Gnomes of Zurich and did some thorough research on about 40 oilers. One of them stood out.

NZO at 26 cents.

So in keeping with the book's philosophy I sold all my stocks and bought over a million NZO. A few years later I was able to retire. Since then all I do is study oilers and occasionally I see something I really like and accordingly I now own NZO, PRC, BOW, PES, RPM, VPE, VPEO and TEX. This Coal Seam Gas is the fuel of the future in Queensland and I have half a mind to ask NZO to take VPE out. They could with all the cash they are getting from Tui. ( there is a rumour around that AWE are lining up a Coal Seam Gas investment)

This Queensland CSG is attracting worldwide interest from Japan, Britain and India with plans to liquify it and export it as LNG to an international market at ever increasing international prices. For instance British Gas has taken a 10% ( increasing to 20%) in Queensland Gas ( QGC ) and just yesterday British Gas secured the rights to supply the burgeoning Singapore market with LNG out to 2020,, and they outbid Woodsides to do it.

This CSG is big and has the backing of Rudd also who wants to reduce the amount of coal fired electricity. CSG is much much cleaner. But that aint nothing compared to what's going to happen with the export of LNG.

That's why I am into BOW, RPM, PES and VPE. These fellows also have a pretty useful oil program as well. (with Santos )

But hey, PPP will get taken out and you will get your rewards. And as you know NZO has stardom written all over it. But for pure leverage I am very happy with these CSG babies. Cheers

[digger]

Bermuda why is it that no-one has talked about AWE in a trading halt? Are they planning to take out this VPE you are talking about?? Seems they are out until Tuesday.

[bermuda]

Bermuda why is it that no-one has talked about AWE in a trading halt? Are they planning to take out this VPE you are talking about?? Seems they are out until Tuesday.

Digger,
I thought this trading halt was about ARQ but they could be on the move again. But doubt it at this stage.

Interesting to see that Bruce Philips ( ex AWE ) has taken up non executive Board seats on AGL and Sunshine Gas. Both big players in the CSG market.

Digger, you should get some CSG's.

Fuel of the future. There is some big rationalisation coming up with these Queensland CSG companies and AWE's cash could be part of it but that is only a guess.

Still think the halt is to do with ARQ. Cheers

[macduffy]

It's clearly to do with ARQ.

Both companies are in trading halt.

;)

[digger]

Ok i found what i wanted.

AWE to buy Arc Energy for $479 million
Wire services

Oil and gas producer Australian Worldwide Exploration (AWE) is proposing to buy compatriot Arc Energy for A$508 million (US$479 million) in a cash and share deal, unnamed sources said.

"It's a cash and share deal which will value Arc at about A$1.58 a share," said the source, who declined to be identified because he was not authorised to speak on the matter.

Shares in AWE and Arc Energy were placed on a trading halt today ahead of an announcement about a proposed transaction.

AWE gave no details of the planned deal in a brief statement to the Australian stock exchange.

Oil minnow Arc Energy said on 14 April that it was in talks with AWE about a possible takeover bid by AWE. Shares in Arc have surged 45% since the announcement to close at A$1.54 on yesterday, while shares in AWE closed 3.3% higher at A$3.78.

AWE's proposed buyout comes on the heels of a flurry of corporate activity in recent months, with junior oil and gas outfits seeking mergers to boost production profiles amid rocketing oil prices, which struck an all-time high of $119.90 on Tuesday.

A merger between the two companies would give AWE more exposure to two projects in western and southern Australia in which both companies have stakes.

AWE, which has a market value of about A$1.6 billion, has production assets in Australia, New Zealand and Argentina. It produced 4 million barrels of oil equivalent in last year.

In February, AWE said a strong increase in revenue and cashflow on the back of robust production rates had left the company with a strong balance sheet and zero debt.

It had cash reserves of A$97.5 million as of 31 December last year.

Arc Energy has production assets in the Perth basin off Western Australia and in the Bass basin off Victoria. It also holds exploration licences on the onshore Canning basin of Australia's north-west, reported Reuters.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
24 April 2008 01:41 GMT | last updated: 24 April 2008 02:33 GMT
Taking aim: AWE targets Arc Related articles

[the machine]

Just checking TAP Chairman's address today.
Well Maitland looks extremely positive with 2 apparaisal wells for Q3/Q4 this year.
Check it out:

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20080424/pdf/318r905jcsfthz.pdf

I like TAP's very positive view in this report.
Why don't we hear this from PPP management? Or don't seem too anyways

Hey Machine, was over in Perth for couple of weeks just recently. Very nice! Very, very nice!

Sharp

thanks.

so is whangarei when we were we last there in 2002


see tap will have to debt fund a fastrack development for maitland [amazing since all the money they had years ago] [and have a contract to supply burrup at way below present market rates for years to come]

ppp will need a swag of ready $ to fund their share of maitland development - say and this is a big guess - aud$50m just for their 10% share.
a fastrack development would start in 1st half 2009.

M

[KentBrockman]

thanks.

ppp will need a swag of ready $ to fund their share of maitland development - say and this is a big guess - aud$50m just for their 10% share.
a fastrack development would start in 1st half 2009.

M

So you think Maitland development will cost A$500mil?

Seems a bit excessive to me, particularly since Apache has said that gas would be processed via the John Brookes facilities next door.

Surely, some wells plus pipes and some subsea stuff won't cost half a billion dollars?

[the machine]

So you think Maitland development will cost A$500mil?

Seems a bit excessive to me, particularly since Apache has said that gas would be processed via the John Brookes facilities next door.

Surely, some wells plus pipes and some subsea stuff won't cost half a billion dollars?


it was only a guess.

3 factors to consider
- will need a platform - a very robust platform view cyclone alley

-tap stated will have to debt fund part of their share suggests their share of costs will not be covered by existing cash flows

-ppp have no production capacity - it is all the hjv - thus ppp will either have to pay a premium to process their share or possibly buy into the hjv in a very small way - 2.5% or so.

at least ppp have the cash and revenue stream to fund their share of any development

M

[Corporate]

I'm wondering why NZO, AWE and PPP haven't announced that Tui has produced it's 10millionth barrel? They expected it to be mid March. They should have pulled at least another 400,000 barrels since the announcement on the 19th of March.

[Sehnsucht888]

I'm wondering why NZO, AWE and PPP haven't announced that Tui has produced it's 10millionth barrel? They expected it to be mid March. They should have pulled at least another 400,000 barrels since the announcement on the 19th of March.

It was announced on the 19th March that is was about to happen in a day or so, I guess they think that was sufficient..

On www.nzog.net they also stated on the 14th April that they had reached 11 million barrels.

[Romer]

So the NZO Quarterly is out. PPP due any moment!!!

Actual production v forecast looks really pretty!!!!

[Sharp737]

And looks pretty good....A$69M Cash...A$12M recieveables....not bad

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20080430/pdf/318w6fh7pv8ts2.pdf

And looking at purchasing more petroleum assets....wonder if they are looking at CSG assets?

Sharp

[the machine]

actually thought the quarterly was giving nothing to inspire the market- sp has gone backwards. the report is consistent with AT buying back in March - he could not buy unless nothing new was happening [and nothing new happened]

mr market clearly shows what it thinks of the lack of anything.

sure they have lots of cash and more rolling in - mr market thinks that without any clear forward plan then ppp will squander it and sp refects same.

perhaps sp will get a boost when tui reaches 12m barrels production early next week and comes clean that hey, with 55 days production to june 30 left then forecast will be more than 20,000 barrels per day.

with a p/e ratio in the local paper of only 8 times then the directors need to ask themselves why is it so low and going nowhere - like a p/e of 14/1 would see sp up near 39c au and a better reflection of the value of the company.

pr must be something other companies do


maybe now that the quarterly is out AT & co can ramp up the company a bit

M

[bermuda]

actually thought the quarterly was giving nothing to inspire the market- sp has gone backwards. the report is consistent with AT buying back in March - he could not buy unless nothing new was happening [and nothing new happened]

mr market clearly shows what it thinks of the lack of anything.

sure they have lots of cash and more rolling in - mr market thinks that without any clear forward plan then ppp will squander it and sp refects same.

perhaps sp will get a boost when tui reaches 12m barrels production early next week and comes clean that hey, with 55 days production to june 30 left then forecast will be more than 20,000 barrels per day.

with a p/e ratio in the local paper of only 8 times then the directors need to ask themselves why is it so low and going nowhere - like a p/e of 14/1 would see sp up near 39c au and a better reflection of the value of the company.

pr must be something other companies do


maybe now that the quarterly is out AT & co can ramp up the company a bit

M

As some of you might know I have had an association with PPP for sometime but dont hold any.

To all holders ...please dont sell.....big things coming up.

[the machine]

As some of you might know I have had an association with PPP for sometime but dont hold any.

To all holders ...please dont sell.....big things coming up.

nearly sold 20,000 ppp to pay for tax bill, but flogged off 2,000 awe instead and it hurt selling them.

hope your right about ppp.

at least yogi picked ppp is sharetrading comp so has that going for it

M

[Mr Tommy]

The quarterly report was so boring, almost like they are trying to keep the price down!

[rocketmannz]

As some of you might know I have had an association with PPP for sometime but dont hold any.

To all holders ...please dont sell.....big things coming up.

Hope so.... been holding these since the Hector disappointment!!

The rise in the oil price & drop in the $NZ has certainly helped PPP's revenue stream this year.

Looking to a good upward move in the SP during this quarter if 3 developments mentioned in the quarterly report are positive.

1. ""Field production performance to date has exceeded expectations and, as a
result the operator of the Tui venture is undertaking a further reserves
review. The result of this reserves review is expected to be completed
before the end of the June quarter. ""

2.""The joint venture Operator, Apache, is nearing completion of its assessment
of the Maitland project after incorporation of the results from the 2007
drilling campaign and will present its work to the joint venture partners
early in May 2008. ""

3.""The strong performance and cash flows from the Tui project place the company
in an excellent position for further growth. The Board of PPP has evaluated
a range of opportunities to acquire additional petroleum assets, and this is
continuing.

Could be a nice Trifecta.

The Rocket

[Taijon]

Hi Taijon,
I cant buy back in otherwise I might be had up for sharetrading. I used to have a totally useless portfolio of about 20 stocks that I had compiled through Broker recommendations and tips from friends. Then I read that book about the Gnomes of Zurich and did some thorough research on about 40 oilers. One of them stood out.

NZO at 26 cents.

So in keeping with the book's philosophy I sold all my stocks and bought over a million NZO. A few years later I was able to retire. Since then all I do is study oilers and occasionally I see something I really like and accordingly I now own NZO, PRC, BOW, PES, RPM, VPE, VPEO and TEX. This Coal Seam Gas is the fuel of the future in Queensland and I have half a mind to ask NZO to take VPE out. They could with all the cash they are getting from Tui. ( there is a rumour around that AWE are lining up a Coal Seam Gas investment)

This Queensland CSG is attracting worldwide interest from Japan, Britain and India with plans to liquify it and export it as LNG to an international market at ever increasing international prices. For instance British Gas has taken a 10% ( increasing to 20%) in Queensland Gas ( QGC ) and just yesterday British Gas secured the rights to supply the burgeoning Singapore market with LNG out to 2020,, and they outbid Woodsides to do it.

This CSG is big and has the backing of Rudd also who wants to reduce the amount of coal fired electricity. CSG is much much cleaner. But that aint nothing compared to what's going to happen with the export of LNG.

That's why I am into BOW, RPM, PES and VPE. These fellows also have a pretty useful oil program as well. (with Santos )

But hey, PPP will get taken out and you will get your rewards. And as you know NZO has stardom written all over it. But for pure leverage I am very happy with these CSG babies. Cheers

Thanks Bermuda for a very detailed reply. Also, your "don't sell now urging will probably keep me in for a few more months. But the opportunity cost of holding PPP is really high when the SP stagnates or even retraces. Someone must have got fedup to sell at $A 0.255 yesterday!!!!!!!!!!!

What is the name of the book you refer to above?

Good luck to you with your CSG babies. Certification of reserves takes a long time and AOE and ESG are further down that track than your babies but patience and quiet accumulation at the infancy stage as you practice will no doubt lead to rewards in a couple of years.

[bermuda]

Thanks Bermuda for a very detailed reply. Also, your "don't sell now urging will probably keep me in for a few more months. But the opportunity cost of holding PPP is really high when the SP stagnates or even retraces. Someone must have got fedup to sell at $A 0.255 yesterday!!!!!!!!!!!

What is the name of the book you refer to above?

Good luck to you with your CSG babies. Certification of reserves takes a long time and AOE and ESG are further down that track than your babies but patience and quiet accumulation at the infancy stage as you practice will no doubt lead to rewards in a couple of years.

The Zurich Axioms. Changed my life. In fact I wrote a letter to my employer stating

" Due to better than foreseen circumstances I wish to retire"....much better than the negative version.

I told someone about this recently and being the sage man he is, said that I should have started my letter

"Jew to better than foreseen circumstances......lol

All the best with PPP. You will get a reward shortly but dont leave it too late to get stuck into VPE. I aint seen anything as good as this since I got stuck into NZO at 26 cents.

I am not a trader just go on fundamentals and VPE's are simply outstanding.

[Lion]

Taijon, here's a link to a quick summary of the Zurich Axioms.

I took an interest in them too when Bermuda mentioned it about 3 years ago, when he sparked my interest in NZO. I've kind of followed it - stuck mostly to one share and invested until I felt uncomfortable - something about if you don't wake up at night and worry about what you've done, then you ain't a real investor! Starting to see the benefits now - thanks bermuda!

http://homepages.ihug.co.nz/~dick.t/zurich_axioms.htm

[pietrade]

Thanks for the link Lion. Cheers

[the machine]

good first up trade in nz today followed by a 1c rise.

asx had some good volume as well and up 1c.

hoping volume will continue and push sp higher.

tap announcement today alluded to ongoing maitland studies and hoping for a positive conclusion re same any day [ppp quarterly indicated jv presentation early may]

still no tui updated production forecast to june 30 - hopefully mr market does not think it will only be 15,000 barrels per day

meanwhile $ keep pouring in to ppp bank account.

port taranki has not listed the akama for quite a while, so wonder where that is - maybe a spot trip to japan would account for that.

M

[the machine]

pp up to 29c au today on decent volume.

per the quarterly report released april 30, apache is to present maitland to the jv in early may so next week that should happen.

tap show maitland as very high.

hopefully sp will continue to increase [well into the 30c au] next week - but stlll way shortof its value.

bermuda, where is that takeover to push sp to 9c au?

M

[Sehnsucht888]

First thing this morning there was a sell of around 600K sitting at 35 looking to keep the price in check. Tht soon disappeared, and we have broken up to 36 on good turnover. And up to 37 before I finish my post. Where to from here...

[Taijon]

As some of you might know I have had an association with PPP for sometime but dont hold any.

To all holders ...please dont sell.....big things coming up.

Big buy orders currently at 37c. I've put handcuffs on to prevent me from pushing the sell button!!!!

[digger]

Big buy orders currently at 37c. I've put handcuffs on to prevent me from pushing the sell button!!!!
Taijon have a look at Phaedrus post number 2137 on the PRC thread where he comments about Steve selling a rising share and the implications of doing so

[the machine]

huge volume on asx today- 7.5 million
at one stage up 2c but finished up 1 cent.

makes the AT purchase back in Mach @ 22c au look pretty good

my most recent purchase was in feb, also @ 22c au after selling 1,ooo djs @ $4.82 - turns out a very wise decision [some $3,000] better off with djs fgoing down and ppp going up.


with all the heavy buying, then something is cooking and would expect sp to keep going up.

M

[the machine]

actually, todays volume on asx may be one of the largest ever - asx chart for last 10 years tops out at about 5m and todays was 7.5m.

see what the week brings.

would ppp be queried by asx with such a high volume and no announcement.

M

[the machine]

so the big buying continues in nz this morning.

M

[Hawke]

Who popped the tyres today?

[JBmurc]

-Oil down a tad overnite prob be main reason most ASX oilers down-I don't feel so bad selling at 37c on close yesterday -will be watching closely

[Hawke]

Sold mine yesterday on ASX at 30.5
Will retake a position at 26.5 perhaps.

PPP- will flonder cash rich but undervalued untill it has a real team to run it.

Hawke.

[the machine]

Growth through acquisitions for BHP: Yeager
(Thursday, 15 May 2008)

BHP Billiton plans to grow its oil and gas arm through acquisitions, according to BHP Billiton Petroleum chief executive Michael Yeager.
Full Story...


headlines from energy review

would consider selling all my ppp for 50c au

M

[Onthemoney]

Same - what an accumulation I have.

[the machine]

per the quarterly, the maitland jv should be contemplating next move now [after apache presented its proposal in early may]

a positive maitland decision and a tui upgrade should spur on the sp over next month.

ppp @ 40c au in 4 weeks would be nice.

M

[sideline]

AWE have just announced the following on the ASX:

TUI FPSO charter extended to 2022
Fixed term of the charter has been extended to 2015, thereafter 7 one year options.
This will allow to extract an additional 5 m barrels from TUI, bringing current 2P to 47m barrels.

Production remains near 45k barrels/day, despite increasing water cut.
Modifications of FPSO are considered to increase total handling capacity.

TUI reserves are still being reviewed, results out during June '08.


AWE up 2.8% currently.

[the machine]

nice early volume on nzx this morning

M

[the machine]

finished @ 32c au - poised for further gains next week

waiting on awe to announce tui upgrades in next few weeks will push sp towards au 40c.

if ppp do not have projects in mind, then standby for a dividend

M

[the machine]

well ppp is going backwards - all the time ppp racking in the $'s.

with no info and no updated game plan = very frustrating time for shareholders.

do we buy more ppp or spend the money paying for nzo options.

ppp likely to go up 50 - 75% by dec 31, whereas nzo may only go up 30 - 40%.

M

[bermuda]

well ppp is going backwards - all the time ppp racking in the $'s.

with no info and no updated game plan = very frustrating time for shareholders.

do we buy more ppp or spend the money paying for nzo options.

ppp likely to go up 50 - 75% by dec 31, whereas nzo may only go up 30 - 40%.

M


Do not sell.

[manxman]

Do not sell.

What is it that Bermuda knows but cannot tell?

It is a riddle, wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma.

[Hoop]

Speculator funds are coming back into oil again after ditching the US currency, so the $10 -$15 speculator effect is third/half used up ($5 increase in crude oil futures today).


Better than average chance PPP price will bounce today.

The party starts again BYOG + sleeping bag

[bermuda]

What is it that Bermuda knows but cannot tell?

It is a riddle, wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma.

Come on mate. It is not hard to see where this one is going.

DYOR

[Sehnsucht888]

Well, the good news is up so far today - although only one trade.

The last week or so has seen this drop 15&#37;. Fundamentals are one thing, markets whims are another...

[the machine]

Come on mate. It is not hard to see where this one is going.

DYOR

bit hard to do new research if the company does not say anything

M

[dsurf]

This one has no PR machine - wish I had not gone for the diversify BS & kept 100% to nzo & prc

[Hoop]

Well, the good news is up so far today - although only one trade.

The last week or so has seen this drop 15%. Fundamentals are one thing, markets whims are another...

That trade was only partially filled ..I know because it is my trade:D

Hoop Quote....." The party starts again BYOG + sleeping bag "
Hmmmm... I'm the only one here ...no... someone else has arrived :).
bad news is my part order not yet filled:( price now 35c


Disc: started accumulating PPP when at 25c and slowly adding since.

[CAM]

No info and no updated game plan.... no pr machine
Look at who is in control of the company and you will understand why. Its the same sort of complaints I remember around NZOG.

[digger]

That trade was only partially filled ..I know because it is my trade:D

Hoop Quote....." The party starts again BYOG + sleeping bag "
Hmmmm... I'm the only one here ...no... someone else has arrived :).
bad news is my part order not yet filled:( price now 35c


Disc: started accumulating PPP when at 25c and slowly adding since.


Well done Hoop. The best sharemarket party is when you are the first to arrive knowing others will soon see the light. I bought my daughter 10000 at 29 cents and she is already getting worried that lately they are going nowhere to backwards. The pressure will be off this company when the NZO options are behind us. They must be on a PE of about 1 or at most 2 and TUI holds a lot more oil than is being recognised so time is on your side.I have options to convert so can not buy PPP otherwise i would add to my holding .Cheers.

[Hawke]

Im well glad now I topped up at .27 last week.
PPP must be adding 300-400K perday to its till from Tui?

Must undervalued producing oiler?????

Next week looks great with Fridays CRAZY superspike in oil -Tapis must be around $140Bbl.
Blood on the floor next week- APART from oilers.
Let the PPP superspike begin.

Hawke.

[the machine]

will be interesting on monday - dow down sharply but oil up.

what will ppp do?

the usd$10 spike in wti [usd$16 over 2days] tapis up by how much yesterday? , should see ppp easily add au2c.

by value ppp is the largest holding we have and our quandry is what to do and if sell some, when.

we have nzo options to pay for and would kick myself if sold au$20,000 of ppp before the tui upgrade to pay for half of my nzo options - [hold 37,500] when if held off until july, ppp may be up another 5c au.

if in doubt then maybe do nothing.

at least AT has not bought anymore, thus something might be cooking, otherwise he could not buy



M

[bermuda]

will be interesting on monday - dow down sharply but oil up.

what will ppp do?

the usd$10 spike in wti [usd$16 over 2days] tapis up by how much yesterday? , should see ppp easily add au2c.

by value ppp is the largest holding we have and our quandry is what to do and if sell some, when.

we have nzo options to pay for and would kick myself if sold au$20,000 of ppp before the tui upgrade to pay for half of my nzo options - [hold 37,500] when if held off until july, ppp may be up another 5c au.



at least AT has not bought anymore, thus something might be cooking, otherwise he could not buy



M

Just wait until June 30th.

[bk]

we have nzo options to pay for and would kick myself if sold au$20,000 of ppp before the tui upgrade to pay for half of my nzo options - [hold 37,500] when if held off until july, ppp may be up another 5c au.

if in doubt then maybe do nothing.

M

same problem here - 48,000 options to convert, and as I just bought a house for my daughter I have no cash for them; I could either sell PPP or PRC, or maybe just sell the options.

I think PPP has a real chance to increase by 20% (or more) in the next two months, while PRC has had a good run but with first coal within reach could also increase by 20% in the next couple of months.

Then again, NZO has so much (potential) good news lined up in the short term (after option expiry) that I expect it to go up by at least 20% in the next two months too.

So, maybe just a case of not enough money to buy more of these goodies??

[fish]

same problem here - 48,000 options to convert, and as I just bought a house for my daughter I have no cash for them; I could either sell PPP or PRC, or maybe just sell the options.

I think PPP has a real chance to increase by 20% (or more) in the next two months, while PRC has had a good run but with first coal within reach could also increase by 20% in the next couple of months.

Then again, NZO has so much (potential) good news lined up in the short term (after option expiry) that I expect it to go up by at least 20% in the next two months too.

So, maybe just a case of not enough money to buy more of these goodies??

Have you considered margin lending- I sold out of the last of my prc on friday pm(but regret it )-will also be doing margin lending for the first time . There is no way that I am going to virtually give my options away at such a knock down price .

The probability is that nzo is going to go ballistic very soon .

[the machine]

Bermuda, can you please give us your take on likely sp per the following dates/events - assumes wti stays above usd$125 / tapis usd$130 / dow steady / [and usd$ steady - thats a laugh]

june 20

day after tui upgrade announced

june 30

mid july

end july


expect like many holders of nzo, also own ppp [if only the free ones dished out by nzo a few years back] and with the impending nzo options then ppp is being sold down to pay for same.

we own 37,500 nzo options which were issued free and will only convert about half of them, selling rest.

ppp being my largest shareholding by value has to come into play.

one option we do have, is borrow the conversion money and come july [new tax year] sell au$20,000 of ppp - this way the tax payable on the profit does not have to be paid until may 2010 - its like an interest free loan from the tax dept.

regards

M

[Corporate]

Bermuda, can you please give us your take on likely sp per the following dates/events - assumes wti stays above usd$125 / tapis usd$130 / dow steady / [and usd$ steady - thats a laugh]

june 20

day after tui upgrade announced

june 30

mid july

end july


expect like many holders of nzo, also own ppp [if only the free ones dished out by nzo a few years back] and with the impending nzo options then ppp is being sold down to pay for same.

we own 37,500 nzo options which were issued free and will only convert about half of them, selling rest.

ppp being my largest shareholding by value has to come into play.

one option we do have, is borrow the conversion money and come july [new tax year] sell au$20,000 of ppp - this way the tax payable on the profit does not have to be paid until may 2010 - its like an interest free loan from the tax dept.

regards

M

I'm also like to know B's thoughts on the above.


Does PPP have any exciting projects on the go? Or is it just Tui flushing them with cash.

[upside_umop]

I bought some more @ 0.27 AU on friday...then oil jumped that friday night :)
Just in for a shortish trade...i would expect 20-30% in coming months with PPP.

*Tui upgrade
*JV partners would have made decisions on auction blocks
*Further prospects being evaluated within tui permit (they didnt just extend FPSO for tui.....)
*Cash
*Indication of corporate activity in the reports with that cash...

I see PPP as having a lot leverage in the taranaki.
Maitland, not so promising, flow rates were kinda low werent they?..

[the machine]

I bought some more @ 0.27 AU on friday...then oil jumped that friday night :)
Just in for a shortish trade...i would expect 20-30% in coming months with PPP.

*Tui upgrade
*JV partners would have made decisions on auction blocks
*Further prospects being evaluated within tui permit (they didnt just extend FPSO for tui.....)
*Cash
*Indication of corporate activity in the reports with that cash...

I see PPP as having a lot leverage in the taranaki.
Maitland, not so promising, flow rates were kinda low werent they?..



Am hoping for minimum 40 - 60% increase by end of Augst.

As regards Maitland - flow rates were low due to sand, thats all.

2 more drills into Maitland expected - hopefully 3rd quarter, will be final testing before development.
ppp might need aud$30 - 50 million to fund their share of development.

M

[Corporate]

Am hoping for minimum 40 - 60% increase by end of Augst.

As regards Maitland - flow rates were low due to sand, thats all.

2 more drills into Maitland expected - hopefully 3rd quarter, will be final testing before development.
ppp might need aud$30 - 50 million to fund their share of development.

M

OK....so I am struggling to see why anyone would by PPP over NZO

The following is all in NZD

NZO MCAP $403M - $166M (31% of PRC) = $237M

Compare this $237M with PPP current market cap of $200M. For any extra $37M you get Kupe, possibly Monoho (Sp), heaps more cash, and 25% greater share in Tui crude....and who knows how much higher PRC will go.

Is my thinking misguided?

[bermuda]

I'm also like to know B's thoughts on the above.


Does PPP have any exciting projects on the go? Or is it just Tui flushing them with cash.

I dont hold any but this share has been held back severely due to a couple of factors.

1. People are selling them so that they can exercise their NZO options

2.The PR from this company is simply deplorable

Once the options are out of the way this share is going to fly and should be takeover material. At what price.? I would only be guessing. But it is certainly going to be substantially higher than it is at the moment.

If you wanted me to guess I would have to say that NZO must be looking at them very closely.

I wouldnt be selling.

[upside_umop]

I know what your saying Stephejame..
But, PPP have bigger leverage to Taranaki prospects relative to market cap.
Its not all smooth sailing for NZO. NZO has big cost pressures on KUPE, options exercise (can they generate the same return on that 'new' money as old shareholders funds....I personally dont think so), and small holdings relative to market cap in taranaki permits.

Dont worry, I hold around 50% of my money in NZO already..but I have to admit, im thinking of selling down some around MOMOHO.

disc: 100% invested - NOCASH

[upside_umop]

Am hoping for minimum 40 - 60% increase by end of Augst.

As regards Maitland - flow rates were low due to sand, thats all.

2 more drills into Maitland expected - hopefully 3rd quarter, will be final testing before development.
ppp might need aud$30 - 50 million to fund their share of development.

M

cheers machine.

they are using horizontal drills to get full flow testing or just different drill target?

[bk]

I can understand the discussion of holding PPP over NZO (better exposure to Tui), or NZO over PPP (more projects on the go, much good news to come).

My problem is finding some money for NZO option conversion.

Selling just about 5 PPP's to convert one option to NZO? That seems to me giving too much away, rating NZO good news too much above PPP leverage. So I keep my PPP's, and wait for them to recover lost ground (and more)

Selling 3 PRC's to convert 4 options to NZO? That sounds more like it. And I think that during the 3 months following conversion NZO will outperform PRC - but I don't have enough PRC to cover all the options.

Borrowing money? My wife might shoot me - I have already invested too much.

Mind you, the way the NZO share price is going the options might be soon out of the money, problem solved! Although, seeing the ACC is buying heaps of options makes one wonder

[bermuda]

I know what your saying Stephejame..
But, PPP have bigger leverage to Taranaki prospects relative to market cap.
Its not all smooth sailing for NZO. NZO has big cost pressures on KUPE, options exercise (can they generate the same return on that 'new' money as old shareholders funds....I personally dont think so), and small holdings relative to market cap in taranaki permits.

Dont worry, I hold around 50% of my money in NZO already..but I have to admit, im thinking of selling down some around MOMOHO.

disc: 100% invested - NOCASH

Hi Upside;
I am glad you are only thinking of selling before the MOMOHO drill. I know in the end you wont because you and I know that in terms of risk reward this has got to be the most oustanding drill prospect we could ever come across. I dont know about you, but I have been involved in scores of them.

[bk]

. . . . . . . . I know that in terms of risk reward this has got to be the most oustanding drill prospect we could ever come across. I dont know about you, but I have been involved in scores of them.

Hi Bermuda,

I hear everyone expects a lot from Momoho - and I would like to see that too - but on what is this based?
-Kupe production facilities larger than required suggesting they expect to find more, somewhere
-Momoho location between other wells suggestion high chance of a result between the other two results
-any other info / rumours?

[bermuda]

Hi Bermuda,

I hear everyone expects a lot from Momoho - and I would like to see that too - but on what is this based?
-Kupe production facilities larger than required suggesting they expect to find more, somewhere
-Momoho location between other wells suggestion high chance of a result between the other two results
-any other info / rumours?

Hi bk,
everything about the whole Kupe project points to success but as you know they could hit nothing.

Going to be a big month ahead for NZO

[the machine]

cheers machine.

they are using horizontal drills to get full flow testing or just different drill target?

the testing done last year in maitland was horizontal - but without fine sand filters.

the proposed 2 more drills are to confirm the extent of the field.


wonder if due the fire at nearby vanerous island, the HJV will reschedule things and move maitland up the ladder, after all not much point doing any more HJV development work, with quick tie into production, with the production facility off line for at least 2 months.

if so we might hear more about this fairly quickly - like before end of June.

M

[AMR]

So when NZO decides to drill Momoho, will they give an exact time of when they will release the news of whether the field is there or not? I've got a complex derivative play floating around in the back of my head...

[the machine]

So when NZO decides to drill Momoho, will they give an exact time of when they will release the news of whether the field is there or not? I've got a complex derivative play floating around in the back of my head...


AMR, Momoho is the next drill, just waiting for the weather window to shift the ensco 107 jack up 6km from kupe platform. Hopefully the weather window will be in next day or so.
This is all covered by the nzo thread.

ppp have no interest in kupe or momoho.

perhaps with the delay in drilling momoho has caused nzo shareholders to sell down ppp to pay for nzo options by june 30

M

[adv]

AWE performed well today. There is a very interesting comment in today's investor presentation regarding TUI:

"One to two development and two appraisal wells in 2009/10"

Until now only one additional development well has been mentioned. A second development well can only be good news - and who knows, if one of the appraisal wells is successful, it could be brought on stream very quickly.

[digger]

I can understand the discussion of holding PPP over NZO (better exposure to Tui), or NZO over PPP (more projects on the go, much good news to come).

My problem is finding some money for NZO option conversion.

Selling just about 5 PPP's to convert one option to NZO? That seems to me giving too much away, rating NZO good news too much above PPP leverage. So I keep my PPP's, and wait for them to recover lost ground (and more)

Selling 3 PRC's to convert 4 options to NZO? That sounds more like it. And I think that during the 3 months following conversion NZO will outperform PRC - but I don't have enough PRC to cover all the options.

Borrowing money? My wife might shoot me - I have already invested too much.

Mind you, the way the NZO share price is going the options might be soon out of the money, problem solved! Although, seeing the ACC is buying heaps of options makes one wonder

The comments used here were all used against me when PRC had it's cash issue at 90 cents only three months ago.I told the familey to drop dead. Investing to win is part of my life so went ahead anyways.Remember at the time PRC share price was under hugh pressure that was very tempary that would soon evaporate once the cash issue was out of the way.My son was the biggest anti pike i had to ignore.He also told me that there was no way NZO would get to 1-50 so the options were worthless. Well fortunately for him he received some very good genes that allows for a mistake,the ability to acknoledge it and move on in a more profitale manner. With no prompting from me last week he exercised all his options in NZOOD,but before doing so asked me if he sent in extra money would NZO just accept it from the pool of nzood's that would lapse.
BK,in making this decision with your family remember it is not just now but later you have to deal with.NZO is going to rocket once this final optios are out of the way.It is now or never and if there is one phrase i am sick of from my fellow human being it is the after the event when they say thet are kicking themselves for not acting. It will happen big time here.

[digger]

AMR, Momoho is the next drill, just waiting for the weather window to shift the ensco 107 jack up 6km from kupe platform. Hopefully the weather window will be in next day or so.
This is all covered by the nzo thread.

ppp have no interest in kupe or momoho.

perhaps with the delay in drilling momoho has caused nzo shareholders to sell down ppp to pay for nzo options by june 30

M

Hey check out the latest news release.The Momoho was sttuded the other day as given in report by NZO.

[bk]

The comments used here were all used against me when PRC had it's cash issue at 90 cents only three months ago.I told the familey to drop dead. Investing to win is part of my life so went ahead anyways.Remember at the time PRC share price was under hugh pressure that was very tempary that would soon evaporate once the cash issue was out of the way.My son was the biggest anti pike i had to ignore.He also told me that there was no way NZO would get to 1-50 so the options were worthless. Well fortunately for him he received some very good genes that allows for a mistake,the ability to acknoledge it and move on in a more profitale manner. With no prompting from me last week he exercised all his options in NZOOD,but before doing so asked me if he sent in extra money would NZO just accept it from the pool of nzood's that would lapse.
BK,in making this decision with your family remember it is not just now but later you have to deal with.NZO is going to rocket once this final optios are out of the way.It is now or never and if there is one phrase i am sick of from my fellow human being it is the after the event when they say thet are kicking themselves for not acting. It will happen big time here.

Thanks for the moral support Digger. I just sent my last dollar to convert as many as possible, and lodged an application form with ASB for a margin loan for the rest. All going well I'll have 200K NZO, and a healthy profit to assist my daughter in buying her first home

[Dr_Who]

This is starting to worry me that every man and their dog are throwing all they have, including the kitchen sink at NZO. If Momoho comes out dry, the sp will get hammer. Just becareful out there people.

[bk]

This is starting to worry me that every man and their dog are throwing all they have, including the kitchen sink at NZO. If Momoho comes out dry, the sp will get hammer. Just becareful out there people.

True, but I believe that even with Momoho dry (a 50% chance?) the share price will go up before the end of the year. Of course there is always World War III, fire on the Umuroa, and the American election / economy to worry about about, but hey, you can't guard against everything.

And anyway, I've got some more shares to cover against the dreaded margin call. But I admit, I am very overweight in NZO, so I am punting on good news.

And I haven't taken out a mortgage yet (and neither plan to do so)

[the machine]

selling pressure should be off ppp very soon after nzo options out of the way and we look forward to july, inturn sharp increase in sp

have not sold any.


ppp must have a heap of $ in the bank and will be a big wakeup call to the market when 4th quarter financials released latest july 31.

in the awe presentation it indicated 2 more tui wells - remember the initial field development tui only had 1 and one of the other fields had 2 development wells - thus expect that field will now have 2 wells and tui has 3.

recall that one ofthe tui wells was a bit risky and if did not perform then tui 4 was the backup plan - tui 4 to be drilled next year.

M

[Sehnsucht888]

So how come PPP haven't released their announcement..

GENERAL: NZO: Tui Oil Reserves Increased Again

The initial proved and probable (2P) reserves for the Tui Area Oil Fields
have been further increased from 47 million to 50.1 million barrels,
following a detailed field reassessment by the Operator.

New Zealand Oil & Gas Ltd's share of the additional reserves is almost
400,000 barrels. Using current oil prices and exchange rates, this has a
gross value to NZOG of around NZ$70 million.

New Zealand Oil & Gas Ltd 12.5&#37;
AWE (Operator)42.5%
Mitsui E & P Australia Pty Ltd 35.0%
Pan Pacific Petroleum NL 10.0%

NZO - $70 million means PPP $56 million increase.
An Extrat $56 million, 580 million shares on issue, so $0.10 a share...
Or am I missing something.

[upside_umop]

An Extrat $56 million, 580 million shares on issue, so $0.10 a share...
Or am I missing something.

A discount rate, taxes, royalties, oil price risk...

[Sehnsucht888]

ok, well apart from that... :-). Surely this is a good thing though, and yet still, PPP stagnates (on a good day).

[the machine]

bermuda, its now after june 30.

is there any likely good news re ppp

regards

M

[Hoop]

A discount rate, taxes, royalties, oil price risk...

Ditto....for NZO as well

The fast money is concentrating on PRC and NZO at the moment.

My personal strategy with PPP is, come early so you can get the seats you desire....sit down...relax..be patient..and when the entertainment starts you will be the envy of others by having the best seats in the house..:cool::cool:

Remember it took a little while for NZO and PRC to warm up.

[Corporate]

Ditto....for NZO as well

The fast money is concentrating on PRC and NZO at the moment.

My personal strategy with PPP is, come early so you can get the seats you desire....sit down...relax..be patient..and when the entertainment starts you will be the envy of others by having the best seats in the house..:cool::cool:

Remember it took a little while for NZO and PRC to warm up.


I'm having similar thoughts. But loving NZO at the moment

[Hoop]

I'm having similar thoughts. But loving NZO at the moment
Me too:D
Disc PRC. NZO. PPP. Cash 45%

[upside_umop]

hey hoop,

yeah thats exactly right. ppp gave off a worse looking half year report because of their effective tax position...and didnt get the attention that nzo did as their bottom line was larger.

there have been a few things holding ppp back, most noticably the OD's.

i believe your right with them taking a while to take off...i bought this as my first stock at 14 cents, had two sets option issues since then and continue to hold. bought more on asx a couple weeks back at 0.27 au. now, im seriously thinking i will one day put almost everything on PPP if remains behind...but not until nzo and prc have had their run. for me it will be about relative performance...

disc portfolio currently in these allocations....: nzo 48%, ppp 15%, prc 16%, vpe + vpeo 21%. 100% in the market :D and typically im a no cash student

[COLIN]

Ditto....for NZO as well

The fast money is concentrating on PRC and NZO at the moment.

My personal strategy with PPP is, come early so you can get the seats you desire....sit down...relax..be patient..and when the entertainment starts you will be the envy of others by having the best seats in the house..:cool::cool:

Remember it took a little while for NZO and PRC to warm up.
Bought another 100k PPP today, using the proceeds of sale of PRC. I consider PRC has gone up too far too fast, and is due for a correction. Will probably buy back in again later, but meantime I expect to enjoy a more exciting ride with my PPP's which seem to have been languishing irrationally. Have just had a fresh look at PPP's Annual Report and surprised to see that there wasn't even a Chairman's Report, just a Review of Operations. They certainly seem to have mastered the art of "cool".
A pity about those options they took out, though. Price looks ridiculous now.

[Dr_Who]

Bought another 100k PPP today, using the proceeds of sale of PRC.

Hey, stop pushing up PPP sp. Poor stingy buggers like me cant get any shares... LOL :p


disc: shareholder

[Romer]

A pity about those options they took out, though. Price looks ridiculous now.

What's this you're saying Col??

[Sehnsucht888]

I think Colin is refering to the option price on forward sales of oil that PPP had to sell. Based on current price, they are a steel, but were required to get the backing of the banks when the price of oil was a lot lower.

[digger]

I think Colin is refering to the option price on forward sales of oil that PPP had to sell. Based on current price, they are a steel, but were required to get the backing of the banks when the price of oil was a lot lower.
When does this option to give PPP oil away at 1/3 its value all get used up?

[COLIN]

I think Colin is refering to the option price on forward sales of oil that PPP had to sell. Based on current price, they are a steel, but were required to get the backing of the banks when the price of oil was a lot lower.
Correct.
Digger: To try and answer your question: In the 2007 Annual Report PPP state that they hedged by way of put options approx.719,000 barrels, being 50&#37; of the FIRST THREE YEARS budgeted production and 22% of its total share of reserves (estimated at only 32 mill barrels for total project, at Report date). Hedging was to ensure that PPP would receive a minimum US$50 per barrel for up to 719,000 barrels, "even if the oil price dropped below that level ON THE RELEVANT DATES. The cost of these put options was partly offset by selling call options, which might require the company to deliver no more than 187,600 barrels at US$92 if oil rose above that price."
So, with PPP's share of total production for the past year being 1.42m barrels they would be well beyond the 719,000 barrels. HOWEVER, the picture could be somewhat clouded by the fact that they refer to RELEVANT DATES and THE FIRST THREE YEARS PRODUCTION, indicating to me that the options maturities were probably spread over a three year period; hopefully the call options were all activated as soon as the oil price reached US$92 and one would hope that they have all been extinguished by now, but it would be difficult to estimate how much these would have cost the company (i.e. the difference between the exercise price and what they could have got for the oil on the open market) without knowledge of what the Tapis prices were on exercise dates.
I haven't hunted for the half-yearly report, which presumably updated the options situation. But the 2008 Report should reveal all.
I don't know how much it cost them to arrange the options (I can't see any separately identified figure in the 2007 Accounts).
But, all in all, and relative to their gross receipts from TUI for the year just finished (est. around NZ$200m) I don't think the overall figure (options costs plus lost opportunity costs) would be great.

Incidentally, I'm happy with the 244 I got for my PRC (closing price 235) but unfortunately I paid 36 for the PPP and they ended on 35 - but, like Edmonds Baking Powder, they are sure to rise!

[bermuda]

hey hoop,

yeah thats exactly right. ppp gave off a worse looking half year report because of their effective tax position...and didnt get the attention that nzo did as their bottom line was larger.

there have been a few things holding ppp back, most noticably the OD's.

i believe your right with them taking a while to take off...i bought this as my first stock at 14 cents, had two sets option issues since then and continue to hold. bought more on asx a couple weeks back at 0.27 au. now, im seriously thinking i will one day put almost everything on PPP if remains behind...but not until nzo and prc have had their run. for me it will be about relative performance...

disc portfolio currently in these allocations....: nzo 48%, ppp 15%, prc 16%, vpe + vpeo 21%. 100% in the market :D and typically im a no cash student

Upside,
That surely is one good looking portfolio.

The Machine,

NZO are now in a position to buy PPP. They will have to offer a fair price. If they dont, someone else will. Wouldnt worry about it.

[Dr_Who]

Upside,
That surely is one good looking portfolio.

The Machine,

NZO are now in a position to buy PPP. They will have to offer a fair price. If they dont, someone else will. Wouldnt worry about it.

There's been alot of talk about NZO potential T/O of PPP. Anyone pls explain why NZO would buy PPP?

I bought PPP based on fundamentals and not potential T/O target.

[digger]

Correct.
Digger: To try and answer your question: In the 2007 Annual Report PPP state that they hedged by way of put options approx.719,000 barrels, being 50% of the FIRST THREE YEARS budgeted production and 22% of its total share of reserves (estimated at only 32 mill barrels for total project, at Report date). Hedging was to ensure that PPP would receive a minimum US$50 per barrel for up to 719,000 barrels, "even if the oil price dropped below that level ON THE RELEVANT DATES. The cost of these put options was partly offset by selling call options, which might require the company to deliver no more than 187,600 barrels at US$92 if oil rose above that price."
So, with PPP's share of total production for the past year being 1.42m barrels they would be well beyond the 719,000 barrels. HOWEVER, the picture could be somewhat clouded by the fact that they refer to RELEVANT DATES and THE FIRST THREE YEARS PRODUCTION, indicating to me that the options maturities were probably spread over a three year period; hopefully the call options were all activated as soon as the oil price reached US$92 and one would hope that they have all been extinguished by now, but it would be difficult to estimate how much these would have cost the company (i.e. the difference between the exercise price and what they could have got for the oil on the open market) without knowledge of what the Tapis prices were on exercise dates.
I haven't hunted for the half-yearly report, which presumably updated the options situation. But the 2008 Report should reveal all.
I don't know how much it cost them to arrange the options (I can't see any separately identified figure in the 2007 Accounts).
But, all in all, and relative to their gross receipts from TUI for the year just finished (est. around NZ$200m) I don't think the overall figure (options costs plus lost opportunity costs) would be great.

Incidentally, I'm happy with the 244 I got for my PRC (closing price 235) but unfortunately I paid 36 for the PPP and they ended on 35 - but, like Edmonds Baking Powder, they are sure to rise!

Thanks Colin for your summary.It all just goes to once again prove that forward selling is an excellent way to make money for someone else.Enought said i trust now even the thickest of the thick have learned there lesson on that one.When i was a dairy farmer the company used to regurally lose us millions each year on forward selling.The banks used to require it and were behind the screen in on the steal

[Alpine]

There's been alot of talk about NZO potential T/O of PPP. Anyone pls explain why NZO would buy PPP?

I bought PPP based on fundamentals and not potential T/O target.

I would hope that the only reason NZO would take over a company would be it's underlying fundamentals. It's the only reason I hold both NZO and PPP.

[dsurf]

There's been alot of talk about NZO potential T/O of PPP. Anyone pls explain why NZO would buy PPP?

I bought PPP based on fundamentals and not potential T/O target.

NZO have set a target of expanding production. Can you see any other companies who have; a share register that is open, a producing asset understood by NZO, and can be bought below " value" (whatever that is"

Also the directors will look good for a couple of years because " we have boosted production by xxx well on the target to xxx" (best we all have some free options)

[Sehnsucht888]

Digger, I think you still need to take into account that PPP forward sold because they had to for the bank to lend them the money they needed, (as I understand it). If they had not had that insurance in place, the bank would not have given them the money, and they would have had to sell their share of TUI, (I guess), as they would not have been able to fund their share of the development.

They basically had no choice in doing it.

[macduffy]

Thanks Colin for your summary.It all just goes to once again prove that forward selling is an excellent way to make money for someone else.Enought said i trust now even the thickest of the thick have learned there lesson on that one.When i was a dairy farmer the company used to regurally lose us millions each year on forward selling.The banks used to require it and were behind the screen in on the steal


Hi digger
A bit off the thread, but -
I don't know about your dairy company but I do know that the Dairy Board, who were responsible for marketing dairy produce overseas ( circa 1980's ) used to "play" the foreign exchange forward market, aggressively at times, and by their own decision, generally with a lot of success. The Board's FX team were well respected in the NZ FX scene and made a lot more good decisions, for the ultimate benefit of dairy farmers, than poor ones.

Disc: No, I never worked for the Dairy Board!

;)

[temptation]

I worked for the Dairy Board - we had some great parties!

[Mr Tommy]

I worked for the Dairy Board - we had some great parties!

Sure did. The final party when Fonterra closed shop in Wellington was the best.


Anyway, about time PPP got a kick in the pants.

[shasta]

There's been alot of talk about NZO potential T/O of PPP. Anyone pls explain why NZO would buy PPP?

I bought PPP based on fundamentals and not potential T/O target.

I'm not so sure NZO would want PPP anymore, if they did they have had ample opportunities at much lower prices.

Ok, NZO would get another 10% of Tui, but the bulk of the oil @ high flow rates is nearly gone, or will be soon.

The flow rate will drop off as the water cut rises (although so far so good), & PPP don't really have anything else that NZO would want.

I'd imagine if your waiting for a T/O of PPP, watch TAP & AWE.

I've always said any T/O of NZO or PPP would have to be friendly to get anywhere, & that would most likely mean AWE?

Disc: Ex NZO & PPP holder

[upside_umop]

NZO have a technical team which are assessing their acerage..which is also PPP's acerage.
If they see something that they like and have a higher certainty, then i dont see why NZO wouldnt want to have a go at PPP. NZO have stated their ongoing commitment to the Taranaki and frankly, I dont think 12.5% quite cuts it for a $700 million company.

A merger may be more in line though, the war chest would end up being around $500 million + debt usage could mean a take over of another oiler offshore of reasonable size. Staff consolidation wouldnt be a big problem, PPP only has 4 that I'm aware of.

[Sharp737]

It could be possible but the conditions for NOG to aquire assets are very stringent and from what has been indicated by NOG so far is that PPP doesn't figure. Of course that could always change if NOG see some real good targets in PPP's acreage and Tui has been substantially upgraded with other targets close by. And of course, there is the Maitland field and Corvus field in Australia. Longer term, these are going to be developed, especially Maitland which appears very positive. Just look at TAP's reports on Maitland...so yeah, TAP could be one to watch but they don't want to dilute their shares too..

[macduffy]

I'm not so sure NZO would want PPP anymore, if they did they have had ample opportunities at much lower prices.

Ok, NZO would get another 10% of Tui, but the bulk of the oil @ high flow rates is nearly gone, or will be soon.

The flow rate will drop off as the water cut rises (although so far so good), & PPP don't really have anything else that NZO would want.

I'd imagine if your waiting for a T/O of PPP, watch TAP & AWE.

I've always said any T/O of NZO or PPP would have to be friendly to get anywhere, & that would most likely mean AWE?

Disc: Ex NZO & PPP holder

I'm not sure why AWE would want anything that PPP has if NZO wouldn't. After all, AWE has an even bigger lump of Tui ( 42.5%). What's the reasoning here?

:)

[the machine]

imo ppp is very undervalued and once quaterly is out the sp will rise quite a lot.

waiting for the directors to come clean with the results of their actiuve pursueing of investments -my tip is almost nil, which paves the way for a dividend of at least 2c fully franked.

M

[JBmurc]

I'm not sure why AWE would want anything that PPP has if NZO wouldn't. After all, AWE has an even bigger lump of Tui ( 42.5%). What's the reasoning here?

:)

Would think if any company was looking TAP would , esp. if maitland is commercial which when you look at TAP lastest presentation seems likely
would give TAP a good producing asset in TUI+maitland+PPP cash and futher upside in There tenaments to complement TAP's as both companies have NZ WA tenaments

[the machine]

expect ppp full year to be net au$95m profit and on present tapis price au$75m for next year

what are they going to do with the money!!!

Last weeks p/e ratio was 8/1- full year will show less than 2/1

even if s/p was 50c au it is still only 6/1

something has to give.

Mr Market, show us the VERY HIGH ROAD

m

[Dr_Who]

When is Maitland schedule for drilling?

[JBmurc]

-Tapis, an Asian marker crude benchmark for Australasian producers, closed
Friday at US$151.67

check out TAPs view lastest june presentation -Maitland looks very postive to me drilling maitland 4 & 5 4th qtr 08

bits from june pres-

 Maitland-3H flow tested at surface constrained rate of ~6 MMscf/d
 Well test, core and petrophysical analysis indicate complex reservoir
 Further appraisal drilling and flow testing being considered for optimal development
Contingent Gas Resource of between 160 and 280 PJ

Australia/NZ Focus
•Acquire projects with
potential to add to or
become core areas ..............PPP ??

[Hoop]

When is Maitland schedule for drilling?

Appraisal drilling 4th quarter 2008. Close enough to hook into that Varanus Island infrastructure.

[KentBrockman]

Hmmm. Tom Prudence. Googling this name plus "oil" doesn't yield a lot. Does anyone know more about this guy?

[Romer]

Never heard of him, but must say I'm excited that PPP is being proactive and appointing a
General Manager, Exploration + Production. Feel that the value of my shares just jumped up another notch. Even if Mr Market didn't think so!!!!

[Dr_Who]

Looks like they are getting ready to purchase more reserves. I am assuming whatever NZO buys, PPP will be part of it also?

[boysy]

down to 32 when will the market wake up to ppp value ?

[Hoop]

down to 32 when will the market wake up to ppp value ?

As one old 80+ year old guy I had drinks with during after 1987 NZX train wreck said with wisdom...quote.." forget fundamentals... the bear is uneducated....never went to school ...never did math...never did accounting."

[Dr_Who]

As one old 80+ year old guy I had drinks with during after 1987 NZX train wreck said with wisdom...quote.." forget fundamentals... the bear is uneducated....never went to school ...never did math...never did accounting."

The scary part is that alot of brokers and analysis went to top schools and did maths and accounting and still got tis market wrong.

Maybe a combination of oil price dropping recently and the Chimeara liquidation saga that is having people panicking. A few force sales from leverage accounts doesnt help in a nervous market. The brave may make money.

[tim23]

Buying on the ASX is the go at the moment, slight price advantage.

[Sehnsucht888]

PRC up 5.9%, NZO up 5.9%, PPP - flat.

Not that PRC should really influence PPP, just resources going up in general, and PPP does zip. Something is keeping a lid on it....

[boysy]

the fact that earnings are yet to be known ? and perhaps ppp lack of prospects ?

[Sehnsucht888]

10% of TUI compared to 12.5% that NZO has should have been somewhat positive.... PPP have been creaming it, (well should have), even with forwards sells taken into account. Although there hasn't been much in real specifics provided... PPP have maitland too which has some potential. NZO are up 4* what PPP are in the last 6 months - from what I can tell from the charts... 17.5% shich is more than it seems... Maybe thats just compared to NZOs 62.5%

disc - me too...

[Corporate]

10% of TUI compared to 12.5% that NZO has should have been somewhat positive.... PPP have been creaming it, (well should have), even with forwards sells taken into account. Although there hasn't been much in real specifics provided... PPP have maitland too which has some potential. NZO are up 4* what PPP are in the last 6 months - from what I can tell from the charts... 17.5% shich is more than it seems... Maybe thats just compared to NZOs 62.5%

disc - me too...

It's not as simple as that though. NZO have Kupe and Pike which are light years ahead of Maitland.

[digger]

It's not as simple as that though. NZO have Kupe and Pike which are light years ahead of Maitland.

Have you noticed that PPP does not go on about maitland.Mostly this talking up is coming from the operator Tap. Last time Maitland was tested [about a year ago] the gas pressure reading was only 6 when about 20 is needed for development. Sand was given as blocking the gas paths and from this Tap assumed that they could easily exceed 6 but as yet this has not been done. I think that until the drills at the end of this final quater this year are done Maitland should remain a hope but not yet confirmed.In short is is best to talk it down then to talk it up.Naturally if you are hoping to sell next week as opposed to next year that talking it down does not ring too well.

[Corporate]

Have you noticed that PPP does not go on about maitland.Mostly this talking up is coming from the operator Tap. Last time Maitland was tested [about a year ago] the gas pressure reading was only 6 when about 20 is needed for development. Sand was given as blocking the gas paths and from this Tap assumed that they could easily exceed 6 but as yet this has not been done. I think that until the drills at the end of this final quater this year are done Maitland should remain a hope but not yet confirmed.In short is is best to talk it down then to talk it up.Naturally if you are hoping to sell next week as opposed to next year that talking it down does not ring too well.


Digger, I agree. I was once interested in PPP, but they just don't inspire. They may have piles of cash (although there last quarterly report was lower than expected), but, what are they doing with it? Maitland is just an out there possibility.

When you look at NZO and the different projects they have on the go, and the option they have available, NZO is far more attractive.

NZO should just buy PPP and bank the additional 10% tui. Thats if they expect production to remain stella! Imagine the vote of confidence towards tui if NZO was to take over PPP!

[Dr_Who]

PRC up 5.9%, NZO up 5.9%, PPP - flat.

Not that PRC should really influence PPP, just resources going up in general, and PPP does zip. Something is keeping a lid on it....

NZO and PRC has all the analyst in NZ doing research reports on it. PPP has no analyst research reports. It is trading below value and under the radar. Once the market wakes up to the fact PPP is under valued, it will be too late to buy.

I prefer PPP over NZO as these prices.

[temptation]

PPP is an Ozzie oiler. All the Ozzie oilers were down yesterday, but at least PPP held up. PPP's day will come when the results are out.

[kanejones]

Hi everybody,
I have held PPP shares for a a few months now and would like to know when the next set of results are due. Thanks.

[boysy]

perhaps a dividend could be announced ? once the financials are announced this puppy should take off

[Hoop]

Hi everybody,
I have held PPP shares for a a few months now and would like to know when the next set of results are due. Thanks.

End of quarter results at end of this month
Full year results probably end Aug/early Sept
cheers Hoop

[the machine]

Hi everybody,
I have held PPP shares for a a few months now and would like to know when the next set of results are due. Thanks.


july quarterly has to be submitted by end of month - should be very good for ppp sp

M

[KentBrockman]

once the financials are announced this puppy should take off

Yeah.

We say that every quarter :)

[boysy]

have the financials ever looked as good as they do ? with tapis over $150 us wat sort of figure are we thinking reveue and profit ?

[kanejones]

Thanks for the replies. It seems that this set of results should give the sp a nudge in the right direction.

[macduffy]

oka thier tui share way passed 750,000 barrels but why the hell did they hedge so low and so many barrels ------thats whats held the--SP-- corect me if wrong on hedge price

Refer Colin's post #928 for background to hedging. Briefly, PPP were required to hedge a certain amount of production to secure funding for their share of Tui development.

;)

[digger]

oka thier tui share way passed 750,000 barrels but why the hell did they hedge so low and so many barrels ------thats whats held the--SP-- corect me if wrong on hedge price

I have only two real concerns about the directors of NZO and PPP.Hedging is a great winner for the hedging company but it was always going to be a failure for a start up oil producer.PPP has lost approx 40 million for this hedging for nil benfit because they forced to sell 750000 at 60NZdollars less than what it's market worth.In fact it is this failure to see through this stupity of hedging that makes me so anti-acquistion that both companies are now talking about.The banks obviously saw a big cut for themselves[indirectly of coa-rse] and were able to force both companies into a hedge.If either of these companies now go off on some spend up the tide could quickly turn and the companies are back into the hands of the banks.From my own experience i have been both under and free of the bank grip,and progress was easily greatest when not under their yoke.Just recently taken up a morgage with the bank but have told them if they get pushy i will sell stock and pay them off. Both NZO and PPP are now free of banks but my greatest concern is do the directors have the wits to maintain that status,and the importance of maintaining it. I note how quickly hedging companies sweet talk about forward selling as it was intelligent and responsible.

[macduffy]

thanks mac duffy

they were screwed--- but back then that was about right i ---suppose and it may be right in 6 mths

Quite so. Hindsight is a wonderful thing!

;)

[Unicorn]

I have only two real concerns about the directors of NZO and PPP.Hedging is a great winner for the hedging company but it was always going to be a failure for a start up oil producer.PPP has lost approx 40 million for this hedging for nil benfit because they forced to sell 750000 at 60NZdollars less than what it's market worth.In fact it is this failure to see through this stupity of hedging that makes me so anti-acquistion that both companies are now talking about.The banks obviously saw a big cut for themselves[indirectly of coa-rse] and were able to force both companies into a hedge.If either of these companies now go off on some spend up the tide could quickly turn and the companies are back into the hands of the banks.From my own experience i have been both under and free of the bank grip,and progress was easily greatest when not under their yoke.Just recently taken up a morgage with the bank but have told them if they get pushy i will sell stock and pay them off. Both NZO and PPP are now free of banks but my greatest concern is do the directors have the wits to maintain that status,and the importance of maintaining it. I note how quickly hedging companies sweet talk about forward selling as it was intelligent and responsible.

I don't think your figures are at all correct Digger. This is based on an earlier quote "In the 2007 Annual Report PPP state that they hedged by way of put options approx.719,000 barrels, being 50% of the FIRST THREE YEARS budgeted production and 22% of its total share of reserves (estimated at only 32 mill barrels for total project, at Report date). Hedging was to ensure that PPP would receive a minimum US$50 per barrel for up to 719,000 barrels, "even if the oil price dropped below that level ON THE RELEVANT DATES. The cost of these put options was partly offset by selling call options, which might require the company to deliver no more than 187,600 barrels at US$92 if oil rose above that price."

There are two types of hedging, based on put and call options. Put options are always good, as they give you the option to get a set price if the market falls under that price. Call options are the bad ones as they allow someone to buy at a set price even if the market goes above that.

If the above quote is correct then you guys are way off the mark. Only 187,600 barrels were subject to calls (at $92), and some of those calls would have expired while the price was under $92 and others will have been called while the price was somewhat less than $150. Not nearly as much loss as you are making it out to be.

Some of the 719,000 barrel puts will still be in place, although reduced as time has gone by and some expired. But those puts are good - it just means PPP is guaranteed at least $50 - in the event the price of oil tumbles. The put options obviously cost something to buy, but that was simply a cost of getting the capital required to develop Tui. Selling the call options would have helped minimise that cost. A necessary evil in this case.

[macduffy]

Thanks, Unicorn. A good, clear explanation.
It could be argued that PPP have done very well with its hedging. Sold enough call options to obtain funding - and as an aside, I'm pretty sure I wouldn't have been prepared to lend to a small oil company without some such security - and offset them with a number of put options at a better price.
As far as the theoretical effect on the bottom line is concerned I don't see any point in trying to guess that. There wouldn't have been any production, at least for PPP, without the development funding.

;)

[Unicorn]

thanks unicorn i agree with digger but the figurs quoted was mine(so blame me) thanks for info so how mu=ch do you think it will effect bottom line

You can only make a wild guess, without knowing the expiry dates of the calls.

One possible scenario is to assume that 187,000 barrels were spread over a year, from July 2007. Tapis hit $92 about December from memory, so the first calls would not have been made. That leaves say 100,000 barrels at $92, against an average of about $122. So an impairment of US$3M. Or about NZ$2M of the bottom line after tax and royalties.

Worst case is probably 187,000 barrels at $40 under market, being a reduction of about NZ$5M off the bottom line.

Neither figure is that significant in comparison to what Tui has delivered. Delaying startup or paying exorbitant interest rates to a finance company to get funds together would have cost somewhat more.

[Romer]

So. The point of this discussion is: "What should the share price be?" I take it that hedging has held the SP down, but surely the effect of that is over by now.
Anyone prepared to do a NTA estimate????

[digger]

But those puts are good - it just means PPP is guaranteed at least $50 - in the event the price of oil tumbles. Unicorn quote.
Unicorn you have highlighted is exact crasy thinking that i find so adhorent about hedging.What in this world can possibly be GOOD about selling off the best part of your future income just to guarantee that oil would not fall below US 50 ???? At the time it was taken out world oil prices and trends made that chance near nil so the guarantee was always useless except to the hedging company that made millions at PPP's expence.
At the end of the day PPP has not moved forward during this time as the cream and most of the milk as well have been lost to hedging
You have also highlighted my point about acquisitions.If we how go forward on some growth cultural mith that you must always move forward,we could easily screw and be back under this necessary evil you spoke about where we HAVE to do it as a further bank requirement,and be subjected to more rubbish about how GOOD it is that we put ourselves into a position where we are going to lose.
PPP has lost heavilly on this hedging as has NZO and unless you are secertly employed by the hedging companies you will be part of the losing group if we allow this to happen again.I remember only to well some few AGM's ago there was a move to sell all our oil at 40
It is crasy thinking unless your part of the hedging company,and if you are it represents the best investment this side of the black stump.

[macduffy]

Hi digger
Not sure about losing millions of dollars. The put options at $50 were never exercised by PPP - the only cost was in purchasing the options, ie the right to sell at $50 if they so desired.
I don't know what that cost was, if indeed it was ever specifically disclosed, but I'd be surprised if it ran into the millions.
On another point, there is no " hedging company" as such. Options are traded on an exchange, much as shares are.

;)

[sideline]

But those puts are good - it just means PPP is guaranteed at least $50 - in the event the price of oil tumbles. Unicorn quote.
Unicorn you have highlighted is exact crasy thinking that i find so adhorent about hedging.What in this world can possibly be GOOD about selling off the best part of your future income just to guarantee that oil would not fall below US 50 ???? At the time it was taken out world oil prices and trends made that chance near nil so the guarantee was always useless except to the hedging company that made millions at PPP's expence.
At the end of the day PPP has not moved forward during this time as the cream and most of the milk as well have been lost to hedging
You have also highlighted my point about acquisitions.If we how go forward on some growth cultural mith that you must always move forward,we could easily screw and be back under this necessary evil you spoke about where we HAVE to do it as a further bank requirement,and be subjected to more rubbish about how GOOD it is that we put ourselves into a position where we are going to lose.
PPP has lost heavilly on this hedging as has NZO and unless you are secertly employed by the hedging companies you will be part of the losing group if we allow this to happen again.I remember only to well some few AGM's ago there was a move to sell all our oil at 40
It is crasy thinking unless your part of the hedging company,and if you are it represents the best investment this side of the black stump.

Digger,
I think you are on the wrong track there. The 50$ puts were simply an insurance for PPP (or
its bank) that they would get at least that much for their oil, which wasn't obvious at that time.
There is no need or obligation to use them now, just as you don't make an insurance claim on
your fire insurance if you don't have a fire.

The only obligation consists of the calls written by PPP at US$92. They did write these calls
to pay for the puts (insurance) above mentioned since they didn't want to use any of their
scarce (at the time) cash. Without knowing the precise expiry dates of the calls it is difficult to
estimate exact impact/cost in lowered revenue, but I wouldn't think it is major.

Of the 187k call options written some would have expired worthless (because the NYMEX poo
was still below US$92 at expiry time). Those calls would have cost the company nothing.

Perhaps the company can elaborate on their current hedging position in their upcoming report.

[temptation]

According to the last quarterly report, gross sales in the quarter were AU$46,794,000. PPP share of production was 410,000 barrels, so the average price of a PPP barrel of Tui oil must have been a bit over AU$110 during the third quarter. Cash held on 31/3/08 AU$69,600,000

[Corporate]

COULD HAVE OVER au$100.000.000 or a touch below 30/6/08

If that is the case. It is quite simply ridiculous that the Market Cap is $140 Million.

[macduffy]

If that is the case. It is quite simply ridiculous that the Market Cap is $140 Million.

Well, we all know the answer to that!
Just don't get trampled in the rush to buy on Monday.

;)

[Corporate]

Well, we all know the answer to that!
Just don't get trampled in the rush to buy on Monday.

;)

Haha what rush?

[Corporate]

Also note that at the end of march they had debt of $35M

[Dr_Who]

COULD HAVE OVER au$100.000.000 or a touch below 30/6/08

Thats what I have been saying in my previous posts. If Oil price stays high PPP's cash holding will be more than the market cap by early next year.

The reason for PPP discount sp is the following.

1. No research in PPP, no broker recommendation, below the radar.
2. LAck of knowledge
3. Lack of info
4. Managment not proactive. Market view management as too lay back.
5. Lack of drilling

This company is ripe for a T/O. It just makes sense for NZO to buy it out. I just hope management dont go on a shopping spree like Paris Hilton with a new platinum card.

disc. I am a shareholder

[digger]

You can only make a wild guess, without knowing the expiry dates of the calls.

One possible scenario is to assume that 187,000 barrels were spread over a year, from July 2007. Tapis hit $92 about December from memory, so the first calls would not have been made. That leaves say 100,000 barrels at $92, against an average of about $122. So an impairment of US$3M. Or about NZ$2M of the bottom line after tax and royalties.

Worst case is probably 187,000 barrels at $40 under market, being a reduction of about NZ$5M off the bottom line.

Neither figure is that significant in comparison to what Tui has delivered. Delaying startup or paying exorbitant interest rates to a finance company to get funds together would have cost somewhat more.

I have never seen the details of this hedging agreement Unicorn. Have you? Because i have never seen it i assume the worst scenario,that being that a call can be made at any time in the three year interval. Many months ago i asked if this call only refered to the first 187000 barrells and at the time it was thought to be over three years.So if it is just the first 187000 then it as you say not nearly so bad.But is it,because if it is over 3 years it has the potential to cost PPP dearly.
Again the hedging has been the big blunder made by NZO and PPP. If it is simple and straight forward as the first 187000 barrells why was it never put as such in simple language.
I continue to think that the SP has been held back becasue the hedging bills have not yet come in and the call is anytime in the next three years.
I would welcome a statement in the quartely report setting this out,and i note you Unicorn are equally unsure.

[Dr_Who]

Digger, why dont you email the company and get an answer? I am sure everyone here will be interested to know.

[Corporate]

I have never seen the details of this hedging agreement Unicorn. Have you? Because i have never seen it i assume the worst scenario,that being that a call can be made at any time in the three year interval. Many months ago i asked if this call only refered to the first 187000 barrells and at the time it was thought to be over three years.So if it is just the first 187000 then it as you say not nearly so bad.But is it,because if it is over 3 years it has the potential to cost PPP dearly.
Again the hedging has been the big blunder made by NZO and PPP. If it is simple and straight forward as the first 187000 barrells why was it never put as such in simple language.
I continue to think that the SP has been held back becasue the hedging bills have not yet come in and the call is anytime in the next three years.
I would welcome a statement in the quartely report setting this out,and i note you Unicorn are equally unsure.

Digger, are you sure that you are understanding the difference between put and call options.

From my understanding the put options will have had no affect on PPP. They entered into this arrangement to secure a "minimum" amount of revenue to satisfy their bankers. If oil had dropped to $40 then PPP would have the option to sell 700k at US$50. However, given that this never happened there isn't an issue.

The 187,000 that they HAVE to sell at US$92 (if called) is immaterial really. It's only 45 days of oil and it isn't that much of a discount to the actual price of oil. They are still getting US$92 a barrel and who knows when they were "called" to deliver it at that price. It may have been when crude was $100 a barrel.

The 187,000 isn't ideal. But given the performance of the field and the price of oil I don't think it really matters.

[digger]

Digger, are you sure that you are understanding the difference between put and call options.

From my understanding the put options will have had no affect on PPP. They entered into this arrangement to secure a "minimum" amount of revenue to satisfy their bankers. If oil had dropped to $40 then PPP would have the option to sell 700k at US$50. However, given that this never happened there isn't an issue.

The 187,000 that they HAVE to sell at US$92 (if called) is immaterial really. It's only 45 days of oil and it isn't that much of a discount to the actual price of oil. They are still getting US$92 a barrel and who knows when they were "called" to deliver it at that price. It may have been when crude was $100 a barrel.

The 187,000 isn't ideal. But given the performance of the field and the price of oil I don't think it really matters.

I understand that clearly.The put will not be needed and never really ever going to be needed as POO was not going below 50.What is not known and never been made clear is when can we get out of the calls? That has caused the confusion and that is were the monies can be lost.Is it the first 187000 barrells or is it a call on that figure any time in the next three years?

[digger]

Digger, why dont you email the company and get an answer? I am sure everyone here will be interested to know.

Because if i do then maybe it can be seen as only me that does not know. Far better i rumble on here and get a spread of answers that shows no one else really knows either,then we can all ask that the hedging arrangement be put in simple language.
Again this was brought up about a year ago when first arranged and from memory very hassy we can not give all info on this senitive area. That is one of the reason why i have so much against it.The facts are not clearly out.

It would be helpfull if you DOC gave us your take on how you understand it.Is the 187000 call over the first 187000 produced or over the pick of the three years.??? I notice no-one seems to want to answer that simple question,and that is probably because they are as confused as me on the issue.

[Corporate]

I understand that clearly.The put will not be needed and never really ever going to be needed as POO was not going below 50.What is not known and never been made clear is when can we get out of the calls? That has caused the confusion and that is were the monies can be lost.Is it the first 187000 barrells or is it a call on that figure any time in the next three years?

Yeah I do not know. It would be interesting to know - I quickly scanned NZO's 06/07 annual and couldn't see anything disclosed in relation to cashflow hedges. There will be a lot more disclosure around this for IFRS.

[macduffy]

On another matter, I take it from my reading of the last Annual Report that there are no share options outstanding. Given that directors converted a big number a year or so ago ( along with shareholders ) and now have an even bigger number of shares, what are the chances of a reasonably good div? 5cps would only amount to about $29m and would still leave a hefty amount of cash for whatever the company may have in mind.

;)

[Corporate]

This thread seems to be bogged down on the relatively side issue of hedging.
I think Shephejame has the answer, it's not particularly material.

On another matter, I take it from my reading of the last Annual Report that there are no share options outstanding. Given that directors converted a big number a year or so ago ( along with shareholders ) and now have an even bigger number of shares, what are the chances of a reasonably good div? 5cps would only amount to about $29m and would still leave a hefty amount of cash for whatever the company may have in mind.

;)

Yeah I am seriously thinking about either; Using the rest of my cash to buy a chunk of PPP or selling some NZO to get PPP. The lure of a decent dividend is enticing.

PPP is sitting at the same SP it was 6 months ago - it blows my mind.

They've had

Increased Tui reserves
Increased crude prices
Dropping USD
and Fantastic production from TUI.

I think the cash inflow for the quarter ending march was $44 Million. Surely the quarter ending June will be in the region of $55 - $60 Million, (depending on those damn hedges).

Maybe PPP should just cease all further operations, lay off all staff, and have a trustee collect and distribute all revenue to shareholders.

[macduffy]

Just to explain.
I edited out the first part of my original post 998 as perhaps a bit provocative and as I wanted to move the debate on.

;)

[temptation]

To put it in context;
PPP's share of 2007/08 Tui was over 1,400,000 barrels
PPP's share of 2008/09 Tui is projected to be 900,000 barrels.
We don't know if the call on 187,000 barrels at US$92 has been made yet.

[Corporate]

It would be helpfull if you DOC gave us your take on how you understand it.Is the 187000 call over the first 187000 produced or over the pick of the three years.??? I notice no-one seems to want to answer that simple question,and that is probably because they are as confused as me on the issue.


To put it in context;
PPP's share of 2007/08 Tui was over 1,400,000 barrels
PPP's share of 2008/09 Tui is projected to be 900,000 barrels.
We don't know if the call on 187,000 barrels at US$92 has been made yet.


To add to this I think at "worst" we are talking about USD$10million in lost revenue. That's if the call had been made at peak prices. Slightly more material than I thought. However, if entering into these arrangements was needed to get the funding, then so-be-it.

[Corporate]

PPP
24/04/2006
GENERAL

REL: 0844 HRS Pan Pacific Petroleum NL

GENERAL: PPP: TUI DEVELOPMENT FUNDING IN PLACE

STOCK EXCHANGE ANNOUNCEMENT

21st April 2006

TUI DEVELOPMENT FUNDING IN PLACE

Agreement was effected today with Commonwealth Bank of Australia to finance
Pan Pacific Petroleum's investment in the Tui oil development, located in the
Taranaki Basin, New Zealand.

The facility, of up to US$32 millions, will provide the bulk of the *Pan
Pacific's share of the development capital costs and associated contractor
guarantees.

First oil from the Tui fields is scheduled for the June 2007 quarter,
initially flowing at approximately 50,000 barrels daily (PPP share 5,000
b/day). The company has acquired an initial tranche of US$50 put options over
250,000 barrels of its share of pending production, as downside price
protection.

For further information : Within Australia.
Tony Radford(Executive Chairman)
Telephone (02) 9957 2177
Mobile 0409 611 644
NZ Contact.
Allan Tattersfield ( Director)
Mobile +64 (0) 21 307 338

Website: www.panpacpetroleum.com.au
End CA:00130366 For:PPP Type:GENERAL Time:2006-04-24:08:44:17

Some information

[digger]

Like a bulldog i can not leave this hedging topic as it is for several reason. Firstly no one has been able to say for sure when PPP fronts up with the call options.There is 187600 that we have agreed to receive no more than 92 US.Now the point not covered is this the first 187600 produced or at any time in the first three years. If you use the first three years as Unicorn does you get a negitable figure,however if it is the cherry pick over three years the 40 million lose i first mentioned is on the cards.
A quick play on my calculator says that oil from Tui startup to end of third year has to reach 256 Us and then PPP has lost 40 million NZ. This could happen in the next two years.
When this point of confusion is fully understood i will email PPP and get a definite answer.Did not go this way in the first instant to highlight the general uncertaintly on this matter held by more than just me.

[macduffy]

I agree that it would be good to get this matter cleared up and probably won't know one way or the other until the 2008 Annual Report sees the light of day, if nobody asks.
So digger, send that email!

:)

[digger]

I agree that it would be good to get this matter cleared up and probably won't know one way or the other until the 2008 Annual Report sees the light of day, if nobody asks.
So digger, send that email!

:)

Anyone else like to admit that we are in the dark on this jubject and that it needs clearing up?

[boysy]

we sure are in the dark any info provided by the company would be well appreciated

[Dr_Who]

Digger, good on ya mate. I am as confused as you guys on the hedging. Will be good to find out the exact details and get some transparency. Looking forward to the answer.

[Corporate]

Like a bulldog i can not leave this hedging topic as it is for several reason. Firstly no one has been able to say for sure when PPP fronts up with the call options.There is 187600 that we have agreed to receive no more than 92 US.Now the point not covered is this the first 187600 produced or at any time in the first three years. If you use the first three years as Unicorn does you get a negitable figure,however if it is the cherry pick over three years the 40 million lose i first mentioned is on the cards.
A quick play on my calculator says that oil from Tui startup to end of third year has to reach 256 Us and then PPP has lost 40 million NZ. This could happen in the next two years.
When this point of confusion is fully understood i will email PPP and get a definite answer.Did not go this way in the first instant to highlight the general uncertaintly on this matter held by more than just me.

Where does the 40 million NZ come from Digger?

Agreed we are in the dark about this

[Sehnsucht888]

"According to the last quarterly report, gross sales in the quarter were AU$46,794,000. PPP share of production was 410,000 barrels, so the average price of a PPP barrel of Tui oil must have been a bit over AU$110 during the third quarter. Cash held on 31/3/08 AU$69,600,000"

"PPP's share of 2007/08 Tui was over 1,400,000 barrels"

Using same price as a minimum, and expected quarterly production of approx 383,000 barrels, gives sales of another $42 million.

This should give cash of $110 million, less other expenses, but not including vastly higher sales for oil. If all the hedge has been taken up, then there is still high prices for many barrels. If not yet taken up, then even higher income this quarter.

I expect the annual or quaterly reports will give a summary of the hedging position. Not too long to wait for them.

3 general scenarios exist:
1) no hedging used - highest prices received for all sales.
2) half hedging used - high prices for 1.3 million barrels, caped prices for 100,000 (although more than what we were probably riginally expecting).
3) All hedging used - high prices for 1.2 million barrels, all future sales at maximum..

This is one money making company...


Disc: hold.