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willy_wonker
03-03-2004, 01:56 PM
Willy likes FRE.

* 5.85 cents div in a few weeks
* Price increase of post and courier by NZ Post.
* FRE is one of two major player.
* Profit upgrade by analyst.
* Increase demand for Internet shopping creates more work for courier firms.

Take advantage of the weakness @ 216 :D

Jimmy
03-03-2004, 08:19 PM
Agree with you WW. Since the correction in price, this coy has to be regarded as a good buy- growth, good divi and support from some 'bigger players'. I'll be watching its progress with interest!

Lawso
03-03-2004, 08:52 PM
But why the correction? Just the general market malaise? Nothing specific to FRE that I'm aware of.
Agree it's excellent buying at this price.

Binklebonk
03-03-2004, 09:40 PM
I think your logic is sound WW. Am aware of some an independent courier that has recently dissappeared with SUB60 taking over with higher margins.
I think the overall movement from industrial economies to service based economies (including the internet)augurs well for courier companies.

I presume the recent weakness is a) Due to overall market weakness and b)A placement by an insto at 2.15.
Perceptions of the "Toll" factor on TRH future may also be a factor

willy_wonker
04-03-2004, 08:43 AM
By the time TOLL gets their act together, it will be year 2050. The Americans cant seem to get TRH going, why would TOLL be any different? TOLL have their hands full just trying to get the out of date track up to running order. The trains are still delayed with all sorts of problems. Get real.

willy_wonker
04-03-2004, 08:47 AM
quote:Originally posted by Jimmy

Agree with you WW. Since the correction in price, this coy has to be regarded as a good buy- growth, good divi and support from some 'bigger players'. I'll be watching its progress with interest!


The market under-estimated FRE since listing. The company surprised the market with a better than expected profit and an increase dividend. Cant ask for more than that.

Nightmare
04-03-2004, 09:10 AM
FRE = BGR = TUA = RBD.

What's the common denominator in the 4 stocks?

willy_wonker
04-03-2004, 09:15 AM
quote:Originally posted by Nightmare


FRE = BGR = TUA = RBD.

What's the common denominator in the 4 stocks?




You must be an analsyt from J Beware... HAHAHA... Hows AIR?

More like FRE = MFT = laughing all the way to the bank.

KJ
04-03-2004, 10:49 AM
Nightmate-I guess that it's the "F" word-FISHER

Did you lose a lot of money with the Fisher Fund?

Nightmare
04-03-2004, 11:50 AM
KJ - you got it!

I invested years ago in the Prudential small-cap fund with Fisher and you should have seen that thing crashed. I have also seen a lot of other ignorant investors like me years ago, ably assisted by those scum-bag brokers, burnt.

And it's still the same technique - buy a stock, buy some more,push to get the good performances and then ...CRASH!

And that's what is happening with FRE just as it happened with BGR and RBD.

huds
04-03-2004, 12:07 PM
When it drops back to ipo levels I'll have a look at it.

Nightmare
04-03-2004, 03:10 PM
You are very quiet, Willy Wonker now that the share price is $2.08 and dropping.


Buying more, are we? [:p]

willy_wonker
04-03-2004, 03:42 PM
I am buying more indeed, grasshopper.

Wait till the selling is near finish, and Willy will be there for a fair deal. Willy is not there for a few cents, and Willy does not have crystal ball to know where the price will be in the short term.:D Watch amd learn how to play the market, young Grasshopper. Maybe you too can make money.

Willy is not scared of falling share price. Like TWR and RBD, Willy make good money. :D

Nightmare, do you have big testicles? If not then I suggest you put your money in ASB for 5% p/a. If so, then follow and learn.

Nightmare
04-03-2004, 05:20 PM
Keep on buying, Willy Wonker. :D

DHL & NZ Post have just announced a JV so watch them kick FRE's butt. And when the Fisher Fund sells, you can buy even more at $1.00.

BTW -weren't you the one who kept pushing Bliss and then went very quiet when they dropped like a stone?

Don't need big testicles - just brains. :)

Nightmare
04-03-2004, 06:09 PM
Laughing like mad ....:D:D:D:D:D

It's clear, Willy Wonker, that you were not even aware that NZ Post is forming a JV with DHL to kick FRE's butt.

And yes, Willy Wonker, must make you feel good to know that you have been buying off those who were sucked into buying the last 20% off ABN two weeks ago at $2.15. Just wait until all the investors out there hear aboutr the DHL/NZ Post JV. :D

Sharks and seals, ABN sure saw that one coming and bailed.

southernman
04-03-2004, 06:55 PM
Lurking in the back ground is the giant Australian Post.
Sure as hell, they will enter the Courier market in NZ.
Just a matter of time.
It is a true free market in this industry, and NZ Post have been operating a rival company to AP for some time now, in Australia.
Beware !!!!!!!!

Liberty
04-03-2004, 07:38 PM
Willy,

A falling share price never lies.

You may think you know what the fundamentals are, but do you, really?

The only TRUE value of a company is reflected in the current price. All else is irrelevant.

Learn and practice TA. Use stoplosses. And above all, don't try to catch the falling knife. Averaging down is for insiders, and mugs.

clearasmud
04-03-2004, 08:01 PM
FRE seems a little overpriced unless its income is very secure.:)

Nightmare
04-03-2004, 08:29 PM
quote:Originally posted by willy_wonker

I am buying more indeed, grasshopper.

Wait till the selling is near finish, and Willy will be there for a fair deal. Willy is not there for a few cents, and Willy does not have crystal ball to know where the price will be in the short term.:D Watch amd learn how to play the market, young Grasshopper. Maybe you too can make money.

Willy is not scared of falling share price. Like TWR and RBD, Willy make good money. :D

Nightmare, do you have big testicles? If not then I suggest you put your money in ASB for 5% p/a. If so, then follow and learn.


How's your testicles, Willy? Already very small and shrinking by the minute? :D:):D:):D

And young grasshoper is very keen to learn how old grasshoper managed to buy into Bliss, Air NZ and now Freightways. That way, young grasshoper knows how NOT top lose money.

huds
04-03-2004, 08:39 PM
Willy and his cheerleaders have gone a little quiet??

Nightmare
05-03-2004, 05:58 AM
quote:Originally posted by huds

Willy and his cheerleaders have gone a little quiet??


I think Willy notices much to his alarm that not only are his testicles small and shrinking, something else is shrinking as well. Probably ran to his emergency doctor last night and the doctor said - 'that's the problem when you mistake one of your leg for your manhood! Now here's your manhood - this thingee here and if I may say so,why is it shrinking along with your testicles?':D

A revitalised competitor is always negative for margins and profits - never positive. Always. [xx(]

good news
05-03-2004, 07:22 AM
Nightmare .. DHL and NZ post have had an alliance for a no. of years and this is simply the formalising of that relationship.. if anything its good for FRE as the market will remain a duopoly, pricing will remain intact ...DHL are at the expensive end of the market whereas NZ post is the low cost end so culturally different, if anything prices may go up .. also do you trying to negotiate with a govt owned agency is going to be easy?

good try nightmare but learn some facts before you blow hot air

willy_wonker
05-03-2004, 08:17 AM
quote:Originally posted by Nightmare


Keep on buying, Willy Wonker. :D

DHL & NZ Post have just announced a JV so watch them kick FRE's butt. And when the Fisher Fund sells, you can buy even more at $1.00.

BTW -weren't you the one who kept pushing Bliss and then went very quiet when they dropped like a stone?

Don't need big testicles - just brains. :)



Tell me something new. That is OLD news. NZ POST run by a government department have been with DHL and talking "BIG" for years... HAHAHA.. :D I view a partnership with DHL as positive. DHL being a private firm will max the profit opportunity. Being only two main players in the market in NZ, I can see the courier post price going up further, as recently experienced with NZ Post increasing prices.

Come to Papa FRE. Willy is still waiting to buy more at the right price. :D

Nightmare, what are you doing posting at nights? Dont you have a life or are you having nightmares agains?

Nightmare
05-03-2004, 08:55 AM
Old news? :D:D:D

Buying from an insider like ABN selling down 7 months ahead of escrow? :D:D:D

Keep buying, Wlliy Wonker. [^][^][^]

How 's your Bliss BTW? Still holding and buying?[:p][:p][:p]

The Doctor
05-03-2004, 09:44 AM
You've "nutshelled' it again Nightmare...that hasty selldown should set alarm bells ringing!

willy_wonker
05-03-2004, 10:33 AM
Nightmare, you sure are a try hard clown. It is a real shame you dont put your money where your mouth is. Either that or you just dont have the funds at all but are here on the board to pee off investors.

What is your recommendations for a buy, Nightmare?:D

Nightmare
05-03-2004, 10:49 AM
quote:Originally posted by willy_wonker

Nightmare, you sure are a try hard clown. It is a real shame you dont put your money where your mouth is. Either that or you just dont have the funds at all but are here on the board to pee off investors.

What is your recommendations for a buy, Nightmare?:D


I just do the opposite of you, Willy Wonker!

BTW ...if you consider 6.58 am in the morning to be night time, it tells us a lot about you! What are you doing on a site like this, teenager? [^]

Stone Cold
05-03-2004, 11:10 AM
Yawn!!!!!

Would you two just go get a room...

Stone Cold
05-03-2004, 11:40 AM
Hi B,

Hope that wasn't in reference to me...?? I am not Sniper - I don't even understand the reference (other than knowing he/she is another poster).

I'm just a little tired of all the personal attacks on the board at the moment - it just gets a bit boring for some of us.

No drama's though - just wanted to voice my boredom of it. I shan't comment on it again.

Happy investing/trading all...
SC

good news
05-03-2004, 12:20 PM
nightmare... is the crafty ABN that sold the majority of their stake too cheaply to the market at 1.60 in the first place? you are a fool

Seti
05-03-2004, 12:31 PM
quote:Originally posted by good news

nightmare... is the crafty ABN that sold the majority of their stake too cheaply to the market at 1.60 in the first place? you are a fool

Its the same ABN that locked in a healthy profit while still retaining a sizeable chunk and publicly endorsing it as "an excellent company"

good news
05-03-2004, 12:41 PM
is it not seti? when have they disappointed? are you jealous of people who see value and make profits?

Seti
05-03-2004, 01:01 PM
You misinterpret my sentiment. I'm using their comments to reinforce my position that FRE is a solid co with excellent prospects.

Disc. Holder

good news
05-03-2004, 01:27 PM
oh.. yes.. i got ya.. sorry

willy_wonker
05-03-2004, 01:40 PM
quote:Originally posted by belgarion

Stome Cold, No not you. I was pointing at Dorkmare whose style is unmistakably Sniper'ish.


I thought you threw out the trash?

Anyway, the reason I put up the FRE thread was to express my point of view. I backed it up by buying FRE with a average price of $2.17. I would probably buy some more if it comes down to $1.90.

Disc: Holder of FRE

The Doctor
05-03-2004, 01:45 PM
Don't worry Willie you'll get your wish!Over-hyped and over-valued like all the recent floats except the one everyone bagged and then it it just kept climbing...Promina.

Nightmare
05-03-2004, 07:28 PM
quote:Originally posted by good news

Nightmare .. DHL and NZ post have had an alliance for a no. of years and this is simply the formalising of that relationship.. if anything its good for FRE as the market will remain a duopoly, pricing will remain intact ...DHL are at the expensive end of the market whereas NZ post is the low cost end so culturally different, if anything prices may go up .. also do you trying to negotiate with a govt owned agency is going to be easy?

good try nightmare but learn some facts before you blow hot air


The above says it all about your understanding of the relationship between DHL and NZ Post in the past, and the deal that they are working on for the future.

Which is basically nothing, zero ...zilch. [^]

winner69
06-03-2004, 03:15 PM
Press report says NZ Post has flagged difficulties in improving the profitability of its major courier brands and said it planned significant initiatives to address this challenge.


Implies that NZ Post courier brnads are suffering. Is this an industry problem? or are NZ Post competitiors making life hard for them?

Sounds like recent price rises were timely.

xpress
06-03-2004, 09:37 PM
I was talking to a NZ Post courier driver a couple of days ago. He said that NZ Post want him to front up with another lump sum to renew his contract. He said that the company was in trouble and he was going to bail out. Maybe true, maybe not. Interesting hearing from the coal face though. Personally (despite denials from the CEO), I think that Freightways may buy in to the Origin Pacific airline. They are looking for a new partner to fund expansion.

Prophet
07-03-2004, 09:36 AM
xpress I've not caught the rumours about origin and FRE have you got any newsarticles or web based refs you can point me at.:)

xpress
07-03-2004, 09:44 PM
The comment I was referring to from the CEO was in an article a couple of weeks ago where he said that they were not looking at any new business directions (or words similar). I just thought that comment was interesting as no one had said they were! I'm only trying to read between the lines.

xpress
07-03-2004, 10:09 PM
If it was the Origin angle you were referring to, the CEO of Origin Pacific stated in the Christchurch Press and NZ Herald about a month ago that they are looking for a business partner(rather than an investor) to help grow the company.

Prophet
08-03-2004, 08:15 AM
It was the Origin aspect I was interested in.

But as of this mornings Herald it seems Dean Bracewell would like to compete with DHL to buy Courier Post - effectively asking for an open tender on this Govt owned asset. Good on him!:D:D:D

Seti
08-03-2004, 10:35 AM
Based on criteria in a Commerce Commission decision back in 1997, (www.comcom.govt.nz/publications/display_mr.cfm?mr_id=161)in particular "In one market, that for national overnight parcel delivery, NZ Post and Freightways are the only two competitors with comprehensive distribution networks", I don't think things have changed all that much and I can't see the CC approving a Freightways/Courier Post tie up.

Prophet
09-03-2004, 07:26 AM
Well xpress I'm not sure if your wish for FRE to get into bed with Origin Pac has come true but we will soon find out. There is an interesting (or maybe not) reference to the core freight business at the end of this STUFF article.

New investor hops on board Origin Pacific
09 March 2004
By ROELAND VAN DEN BERGH

Origin Pacific has found a new investor and hopes to have three on board by the end of March, managing director Robert Inglis says.


The Nelson-based commuter airline engaged KPMG at the end of last year to find outside investors to help fund fleet expansion.

"They have moved part-way down the track and are proceeding well toward completing the capital raising," Mr Inglis said yesterday.

He would not disclose how much capital was being raised.

A group of New Zealand individuals had come on board through a single investment vehicle.

"We are ideally looking for two to three investors to fill the capital needs," Mr Inglis said. "We certainly were hoping to raise our target figures to allow us to carry out our expansion without going past three organisations."

The target of completing the capital raising by the end of March was on track, despite the sudden cancellation of Origin's code share and aircraft leasing arrangements with Qantas from March 1. The project was suspended while a new business plan was drawn up to take to investors, Mr Inglis said.

"That has taken a little longer and has had a bearing on the ability to push ahead with capital raising till we had that complete."

Origin has since set up agreements to carry passengers from several international airlines flying into Auckland, including KLM Royal Dutch Airlines, Malaysian Airlines and Korean Airlines.

An agreement with new budget trans-Tasman operator Pacific Blue was expected soon.

"Both airlines have said there appears to be a mutual benefit to working together," Mr Inglis said.

Pacific Blue will add a Wellington to Sydney flight to its schedule tomorrow. It already flies from its Christchurch base to Brisbane.

Mr Inglis said he expected the new airline agreements to more than replace passengers lost from Qantas.

"They have to mature and come to fruition. I would imagine they would surpass the business that we have had from Qantas, but some of them may take a little time to develop."

He would not say if the fleet expansion would include a move into jets.

"Our core business is our services to the regions and our freight business, and that is certainly what we are focusing on."

riskandreturn
09-03-2004, 08:18 AM
I think you're right on the mark seti....i think there's no chance FRE would get approval to acquire NZ Post's operations...

Possibly just a play to try to delay the process and push up the price??

Happy
09-03-2004, 08:29 AM
risk and return - if your focusing on regulatory approvals I think your mistaken, the sheer nature that DHL wants to come into the market would make it possible for FRE to buy the Post operation.

I think FRE is a great company and the potential for post and DHL to get together can only be positive in the medium/short term as at least FRE will have a competitor who is keen to try and increase prices.

willy_wonker
09-03-2004, 12:20 PM
It makes more sense for DHL to buy out FRE. Let NZ Post run their courier business to the ground by introducing some competitive pricing and services. How many government departments do you know that can turn a good profit for the company? DHL can reduce cost and increase revenue by using their existing global services and structure management. FRE/DHL merger/takover can also move into other existing mailing business currently run by NZ Post.

willy_wonker
09-03-2004, 12:31 PM
Just noticed that the man himself Dean Bracewell have paid for his shares to increase his holdings.

Number of Securities Acquired: 877,392 ordinary shares converted from unpaid to fully paid.

He currently holds over 2 million shares.

riskandreturn
11-03-2004, 01:20 PM
Happy - I disagree with your assumption that DHL wanting to enter the market would allow the purchase to take place.

It's comparable to Virgin wanting to enter the market here but the rejection of the alliance bid by Air NZ....

I dare say that DHL's first argument would be that they wouldn't be willing to enter a market with an effective monopoly in place.

xpress
12-03-2004, 07:33 PM
It's all very interesting isn't it? Origin Pacific recently launched a same day airport to airport freight service. I'm pretty sure DHL use them as the domestic distributer (DHL have their own aircraft that flys across the Tasman every night). Origin Pacific also says that they are trying to get a code share agreement with Emirates Airlines. Some frieght people I talked to a couple of months ago said that Emirates have got a fantastic freight system. They are sending perishables through Dubai to Europe now. If you could pick the winner in this market you could make a dollar or two.

willy_wonker
21-03-2004, 01:52 PM
Those that have bought recently will enjoy the 5.85 cents div.

Still holding up after all the rumours and fear of NZ Post/DHL merger. Hey, still only two main players in the courier market after all the fuss and hooha. :D:D

winner69
21-03-2004, 07:08 PM
Belg is 100MA much use when stock has been trading for about the same time?

Whatever the uptrend looks over and 220 seems a very important level to get through .... unless Carmel has to go 10-15% over to get more (she is a bit of a worry)

willy_wonker
22-03-2004, 11:22 AM
Does the graph or MA account for Div payout?

Happy
23-03-2004, 12:17 PM
And Saturn is rising in line with Uranus...

willy_wonker
24-03-2004, 02:38 PM
Hey Happy, look at the share price + 5.85 cents ex div. :):)

Nightmare
24-03-2004, 04:09 PM
quote:Originally posted by willy_wonker

Hey Happy, look at the share price + 5.85 cents ex div. :):)


Hi WW - you notice Bliss has been going up and PRG going down? So there's selling around on PRG and there's buying in Bliss! Thought you like buying stock when they are going down and there are sellers?

Hang on - you did the opposite though on Bliss on the 8 million shares coming. Still waiting for them, I am! [:p][:p][:p]

Just a confused teenager, that's what you are! :D:D:D

Wait until the Fisher Fund sells FRE - fundamental change in competitive settings in the industry, see? You ready with your cheque book or like Bliss, all talk and no action. [^][^][^]

Burgerbun
24-03-2004, 04:31 PM
huh...From a spineless idiot with multiple personalities.

BALANCE, SNIPER, MATRIX.....all GONE POOF!


:D:D:D:D:D:D
All the above losers were you! and after making some seriously idiotic calls on stocks.....like GPG and CAH

Suddenly Disappeared

VERY VERY SATISFYING to uncover a FRAUDSTER. especially one who logs on under the wrong name and got caught deleting the post...

[^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^]
VERY SATISFYING INDEED

Nightmare
24-03-2004, 04:45 PM
[:p][:p][:p][^][^][^][:p][:p][:p]
Be original, Cloud Cuckooland 9.

How's the Flip-flopping going? Work out your timing yet?
Now do you calculate returns on 1 year or 10 years basis? Oh dear, you are so confuseeeeeeddddddddddddd ......

Very very very satisfying to uncover the Mother of all Flip-floppers!

:D:D:D:D:D:D:D

Jimmy
24-03-2004, 04:55 PM
.... and back to FRE. Very good company which is growing and will take a bigger market share over the next year.

Burgerbun
24-03-2004, 04:57 PM
Matrix, Sniper, Balance and now Nightmare...

however Nightmare does seem to fit your personality well but not as well as LOSER.

How about changing your name again...

oh thats right, have to wait for you to stick your foot in your mouth once more and youll be off...

Run chicken Run.
Just not smart enough to fool C9 were we.

Just too damn easy for me[^]

Nightmare
24-03-2004, 05:06 PM
Keep flip-flopping, Cloud Cuckooland 9.

Roll up to NOG and RPL threads and watch the circus act from this flip-flopper.

Very very very very satisfying .....[^][^][^][^][^]

PS. You figure out the time yet? [:p][:p][:p][:p]

Lawso
24-03-2004, 07:32 PM
Nightmare and Cloud 9: Everywhere I look I come across you two clowns and your mad ravings,. Why don't you go on the stage as a double-clown act, like Laurel & Hardy, Abbott & Costello, etc. At least you wouldn't be wasting our timeand space on ShareTrader.

willy_wonker
25-03-2004, 07:55 AM
Nightmare aka matrix, sniper or whatever, if you dont have anything constructive to add in this thread, please p_i_s_s off and not waste space and time.

willy_wonker
25-03-2004, 07:57 AM
quote:Originally posted by Jimmy

.... and back to FRE. Very good company which is growing and will take a bigger market share over the next year.


I agree. The big fuss over NZ Post/DHL is nothing more than just hotair. NZPost/DHL have been working together for a number of years now and still losing market share. Their merger (if successful) will only consolidate the market more and the upward trend of the courier prices will benefit both main players in the market place.

Nightmare
25-03-2004, 10:34 AM
Yes WW ...just like you add value to your Buy recommendation of Bliss and your assertion that you like to buy stock when there's selling around? Then you turn tail when sharesbecome available?

Then describing any company associated with Eric Watson as 'yet another Watson dog' but recommeding Watson dpg PRG?

Just get yourself sorted out .....[^]

willy_wonker
25-03-2004, 01:07 PM
Whatever.

Dont forget your daily schizophrenia pills.

Nightmare
25-03-2004, 01:27 PM
quote:Originally posted by willy_wonker

Whatever.

Dont forget your daily schizophrenia pills.


Yes - whatsoever.

Pathetic attempts at insults will not get you off the hook, my friend.

Answer the questions will however.

Your call.

Seti
25-03-2004, 01:44 PM
Had a chat with the local NZ Couriers contractor who claims volumes are increasing and they are having a bit of a problem finding drivers to cope with demand. The co has also hired additional under-ticketing inspectors for freight that exceedes the weight/dimension limit per ticket. We had never received an under-ticketing invoice until a couple of months ago but now they roll in nearly every week. These are also billed at the retail price - approx 70% dearer than our usual cost, as a disincentive. IMO this should be another small but lucrative revenue stream. :D

Disc: Hold FRE

25-03-2004, 01:50 PM
Seti Might be the thing that kills the goose that lays the golden eggs. Especially if the fact itis under ticketed is not pointed out at pick up. Lots of angry customers Disputing these accounts and how are they going to be proved.

Seti
25-03-2004, 02:09 PM
While its true we have disputed 1 or 2 the criteria for freight was established a long time ago and they are at pains to point out they are simply enforcing the terms of carriage. This is only positive for NZC as their clients are forced to use the correct number of tickets or incur retail costs. Our firm spends approx $600,000 per annum on freight and NZC still has the cost/effiency/coverage network of any co and we have no choice but to continue with them.

willy_wonker
25-03-2004, 03:01 PM
Thanks for the info Seti.

Goes to confirm that the courier market is healthy. :)

25-03-2004, 03:35 PM
Seti ask them for proof of account if they have not still got the parcell or informed you at pick up time they have not got a leg to stand on. I can not see them refusing to cart your freight. This is what most big firms would do, require proof of debt.

Happy
26-03-2004, 11:15 AM
Good upwards movement in the price last couple of days. Looks like getting back to the value pre the sell down by ABN.

willy_wonker
26-03-2004, 12:08 PM
$2.30 + a 5.85 cent div :):):)

Phaedrus
21-05-2004, 11:45 AM
Belg,
Over the last month or so FRE has been forming a symmetrical triangle. Statistically, the breakout from this formation is more likely to be upwards, in that 64% do, vs 36% breaking downwards. Keep in mind though that this is not too much removed from a 50/50 split that has no predictive value whatsoever and is no better than tossing a coin.
The most prudent course of action here is to wait for the breakout (up or down) then act accordingly.
The chart below includes todays price as at 1230.
http://home.ripway.com/2003-11/39768/FRE001.gif

Prophet
17-06-2004, 10:25 PM
Phaedrus - We are just about a month on from your last post on FRE. My take is that the chart must be nearing its breakout if not already. Whats your call on the chart now?

Do you have any info on the likely size of the breakout, my limited understanding of TA is that the size of the formation defines the size of the breakout.

Thanks in advance.

Lawso
24-06-2004, 08:44 AM
I've been taking a critical look at my FRE holding and have just read the posts above. There doesn' yet seem to be the breakout that Phaedrus has been wating for.

It's a good solid business of the kind my portfolio is full of. But it doesn't seem to be going anywhere lately. P/E is very high @ 34.24 and yield is a miserable 3.67%. I've been in FRE since mid-'01 and hold a decent parcel that has cost an average 179c. Can't help thinking I should take the profit and do better with the money somewhere else.
Grateful for any comments/suggestions. TIA (thanks in advance).

willy_wonker
24-06-2004, 08:53 AM
Willy says a profit is a profit and you cant pick the top or bottom.

Liberty
24-06-2004, 01:31 PM
"There doesn' yet seem to be the breakout that Phaedrus has been wating for."

Lawso:

The chart above clearly shows that a rise above 232 would have been a breakout above the symmetrical triangle formation. FRE current price is 238. The breakout actually occurred on Tuesday, with the 5 cent rise to 237.

An signal to buy, I would have thought, not to sell.

Lawso
24-06-2004, 01:48 PM
Too late, I decided to take the money and run. I'm sure I can do better elsewhere. As I've got a bit light on fi, I'm tempted by the upcoming Delegats capital notes offer - a good rate and a nice drop!
But thanks anyway, Liberty & Willy.

willy_wonker
24-06-2004, 01:57 PM
Nice profit lawso, welldone mate :)

Willy says to always leave abit for others as you can never pick tops and bottoms unless you have crystal ball.

riskandreturn
24-06-2004, 03:13 PM
The 3.67% yield is a bit misleading. This is based on one div isn't it - ie likely to be double this once second half year div is counted? Not so bad....

Interesting post though Lawso as i also sold out at 2.35 and think that there are better opportunities.

If it comes back again to the 2.20 range i may pick up some more but until then will be an interested spectator!!

Phaedrus
24-06-2004, 03:26 PM
Here is an updated FRE chart. I don't read every post on every thread every day, hence the delay, sorry.
The Symmetrical Triangle broke (Down) on 24/5, and FRE continued falling until it reached a low on 2/6. Once it had fallen below the 225 low of 22/4, we had a lower low after a lower high and thus a downtrend. We could now draw a valid trendline (Red). This trendline was broken on 17/6, giving an entry at 231 for anyone keen to buy this stock. It is important to realise that neither of the blue lines comprising the symmetrical triangle were trendlines - why not? No trend. No trend = no trendline. They were just lines linking reaction highs or lows until there was a trend.
Prophet - I have no quantitative data linking the size of the formation with the size of the breakout. Volume is often very low just before the breakout, and that was the case here too.
This is not a stock I hold. PE too high, yield too low and the chart looks too much like an extended trading range to excite my interest and its not liquid enough to be a good trading candidate. Since the trendline break, FRE has looked quite strong, for all that.
http://home.ripway.com/2003-11/39768/FRE2001.gif

Liberty
24-06-2004, 03:39 PM
Damn, sorry Lawso, I posted cr@p above, I mis-read the date on Phaedrus's first chart. [:I]

foodee
24-06-2004, 03:55 PM
Lawso
Delagat's offer is a very small one and most likely will be ill liquid(no pun intended), thus will most like have to hold to maturity. But then who knows it might lead to other things.
cheers

Lawso
24-06-2004, 08:39 PM
Thanx for the comments, guys, and Phaedrus has done the biz as usual.
Note your comment, foodee, but a broker says he can get some D's notes for me.
My experience with f i investments have been very satisfactory. Years ago I put $20k into one of the Princes Wharf development scheme - at 13.75%!! Sweated blood for a year, with visions of some cruise liner ramming into it, but it was only for 12 months and at the end I got it all back incl. interest. Whew! Never again.(It might have been Metropolis!) But I've had only good experiences with two St Laurence property syndicates and they'll do an IPO one day, I figure.
To harp on about f i, I've done very nicely out of the FTX bonds, when they were swopped for shares @ 161.5cps. Ditto FRE as stated above. I originally bought the prefs, which were paying 10.9% gross and these were redeemed in favour of an allocation of shares @ 160. (The offer was so popular that that holders were scaled back, but I bought more on market.) I'm also holding Vector 9.75% bonds and there's every chance of switching them to shares in a possible IPO. So maybe I'll also get lucky with Delegat's as there's talk of a possible IPO next year.
Who said f i was boring? Hope I'm not boring everyone with this diatribe.

kiwi_on_OE
24-06-2004, 11:13 PM
Phaedrus

Can you clarify 'They were just lines linking reaction highs or lows until there was a trend.'? If the upper blue line was not a trendline, then surely when the price crosses an extension of the line it can not be a trendline break?

This is one of those times I have my doubts about TA. Perhaps as you imply, it just isn't a good stock to use TA on at the moment. Much easier to stick with the ones in nicely defined trends.

Does this look like the sort of scenario where a big player thought they might have some fun with the market, and manipulated the price to catch a few people out?

Prophet
24-06-2004, 11:40 PM
A couple of comments to those criticising the div and PE. Those figures generally quoted at the moment are not full year figures they are for the HY only and hence very misleading. If we halve the PE to better reflect the FY figure we get a more respectable 17 which is well supported by their historic earnings growth (which impressively is consistently over a 5yr period is at least twice their revenue growth).

Phaedrus, all due respect to your vast TA knowledge but does there not exist a larger symetrical triangle when including the Feb high and March low? Perhaps more obvious using a candlestick chart. The breakout supports this triangle as well.

Phaedrus
25-06-2004, 07:43 AM
KOOE, The upper blue line was not a trendline because it did not link the highs of a trend. It was linking a series of lower highs, but that alone does not constitute a downtrend. A down trend must have lower highs and lower lows.
The lower blue line was not a trendline either. It linked a series of higher lows, but to be an uptrend, there needed to be higher highs as well. Over the period of the symmetrical triangle, FRE was trendless.
FRE had already made lower highs, so, when it made a lower low, it began a downtrend. The extended upper blue line was now a trendline. This trendline (red) was confirmed once again before it was broken, giving a Buy signal.
Sing out if you have any other doubts about TA. I'm happy to present the case - you can accept or reject it as you see fit. At no time did I mean to imply that FRE "isn't a good stock to use TA on at the moment." In fact, the trendline break buy signal is looking to be quite good right now.

Prophet, fair comment re PE and yield. What you say about the presence of a larger symmetrical triangle is also quite valid. There is a limit to the amount of info that can be presented without cluttering the chart - too many lines can obscure the point you are trying to make. We are not in disagreement here at all of course - you are simply focussing on a longer timeframe than I was. The most important point is this. Your big symmetrical triangle and my trendline break both gave exactly the same buy signal at exactly the same time. I like it when long and short term signals from two different perspectives coincide like that.
Please go easy on the "due respect" and talk of "vast knowlege". My opinion is worth no more than yours. We are all flawed beings muddling along as best we are able using imperfect means to achieve
limited ends. If we can give each other a hand now and then, that's good.

Prophet
25-06-2004, 10:47 AM
Phaedrus, respect is given where respect is due. I'm novice enough with TA to often feel I see patterns for the sake of seeing patterns.

Re. my comment on target prices I wonder if you'd comment on the following discussion of target prices at stockcharts.com. Is it valid? Is it reliable?

http://www.stockcharts.com/education/ChartAnalysis/symmTriangle.html

Symmetrical Triangle Price Target: There are two methods to estimate the extent of the move after the breakout. First, the widest distance of the symmetrical triangle can be measured and applied to the breakout point. Second, a trendline can be drawn parallel to the pattern's trendline that slopes (up or down) in the direction of the break. The extension of this line will mark a potential breakout target.

Lawso
25-06-2004, 12:37 PM
Risk & return and Prophet: You're right of course. It was careless of me not to recognise that the figures were only based on the half-year. Never mind. I'm comfortable with the sale and have moved on, but don't rule out buying back in to FRE if there is weakness.

Wise words from Phaedrus: Quote - We are all flawed beings muddling along as best we are able using imperfect means to achieve
limited ends. If we can give each other a hand now and then, that's good.

Phaedrus
25-06-2004, 07:22 PM
Prophet,
Personally, I don't use fixed targets with symmetrical triangles or any other formations. I am a bit uncomfortable with the predictive aspect and I figure that you can only take what the market will give you anyway. To help you reach your own conclusion as to the validity and reliability of price targets based on symmetrical triangles, here are a few statistics on the second method you mentioned. If the triangle is......
Preceded by an uptrend, Upside breakout, 81% meet predicted target.
Preceded by an uptrend, Downside breakout, 62% meet predicted target.
Preceded by an downtrend, Upside breakout, 79% meet predicted target.
Preceded by an downtrend, Downside breakout, 57% meet predicted target
Regardless of the configuration, price targets are met or exceeded more often than not. Interesting but..... do you feel you could base trading decisions on this knowledge?

Prophet
25-06-2004, 10:12 PM
As you say, you can only take wht the market will give you. I'm a fundementalist by and large but clearly accept that there is substance to TA. As the market has become more fully priced over the past year its been harder to find good pickings. I'm playing with taking advantage of TA to give me better entries and thus improve my returns/ make my time and cash in the market more efficent. My interest in target prices is trying to tie the TA back into my fundemental anlysis, I've been surprised by the number of times things have conincided. The logic of the market continues to amuse and bemuse me:)

star
30-06-2004, 05:58 PM
Does anyone know what is the forecast P/E for Freightway? What is the forecast EPS for the next 5 years? The current P/E of 35 is quite high, this must be justfied by high future growth.

Prophet
30-06-2004, 10:56 PM
I'm going to have to have a go at you Star. Not only is it next to impossible for a company to forecast 5 yrs ahead with any credibility. But your statement on the PE shows you haven't even bothered to read the preceeding posts in this thread.

When you see a PE on a website or in the papers that clearly looks out of the norm its always worthwhile calculating the PE for yourself based on actual reported earnings over the preceeding FY. Quite often it is explained by either only a half years profits being included or a share split/consolidation.

As to the 5 yr forecast only company management are likely to have access to such numbers in their strategic plans and to be remotely accurate the company would need a pretty strong business model. I suspect you might be better looking at the 5yrs preceeding EPS growth and stability of it, then decide if it is reasonable to project it forward. I think you'll find various books on W Buffett will help you out with that.

Long Strangle
01-07-2004, 09:29 AM
Figure 2: FY05 earnings revisions (NZ$m)
2005F 2005P* Change
Sales Revenue 225.6 222.3 1.5%
Other Revenue 0.0 0.0 na
Gross Revenue 225.6 222.3 1.5%
EBITDA 51.1 48.5 5.3%
Depreciation 5.4 5.4 0.0%
EBITA 45.7 43.1 5.9%
Goodwill Amortisation 4.8 4.8 0.0%
EBIT 40.9 38.3 6.7%
Interest Charges 8.8 8.8 -0.4%
Abnormal Items Pre Tax 0.0 0.0 na
NPBT 32.1 29.5 8.8%
Taxation 12.2 11.3 7.5%
Minority Interests 0.0 0.0 na
Reported NPAT 19.9 18.2 9.5%
Abnormal Items Post Tax 0.0 0.0 na
Adjusted NPAT 19.9 18.2 9.5%
*Previous forecast
Source: Company data, FNZC estimates

Based on these forecasts from FNZC NPAT FY05 NPAT is 19.9 million, add back on non cash expenses such as depreciation and amortisation (10.2 million) and the figure is more like 30 million. The total issue is 123,950,434 shares giving earnings per share of given earnings per share of 0.2428 and a FY05 PE of 10.09. FY06 earnings per share is 0.2614 and a PE of 9.37. Seems to be nearly fully valued at these levels IMO. LS :)

winner69
01-07-2004, 06:17 PM
Thanks for that longstrangle

interesting thing from the numbers is that NPAT goes from an estimated $13M this year to $20M in 5 years time

This is only 9% growth per annum .... and currently on a PE of 20 odd

So maybe todays price is a bit rich or something that many know about not included in FCNZ forecasts

star
01-07-2004, 10:42 PM
Prophet

Thanks for your comment. I read your post in Page 5 and understand why you are little bit upset. Your post did provide important information. Sorry about my negligence.

Yes, I thought only half year's enrings was used in the P/E ratio.

As for 5 year forecast EPS, I do not agree with you. It is possible to forecast 5 years earnings. Even though it is impossible to be 100% accurate, still give you an indication of what the potential could be, and what level of growth can support P/E(eg. FPH P/E is very high, over 25, but this can be justified by the five year EPS growth of 13%)

To value a company properly, you need at least five years data. Even though companies or brokers some times do not provide this, we, as good investors, have to do home work to find it out, and forecast is a way to achieve this.

lambton
02-07-2004, 12:46 PM
Bought in at $1.60 - slowly selling out, not easy to get top dollar on the day. Buyers few and far between and not always in the market.
I wonder if its my favorite ramper for a fledgling fund having fun with this little puppy.

willy_wonker
29-07-2004, 08:29 AM
What a beautiful stock and a beautiful graph.

Funny how there were so many negative comments on this stock. Dont follow the crowd and you will make money in the long term. The writing is on the wall.

willy_wonker
29-07-2004, 08:34 AM
quote:Originally posted by Nightmare


You are very quiet, Willy Wonker now that the share price is $2.08 and dropping.


Buying more, are we? [:p]



Yes I did and laughing all the way to the bank and in your face. :D

lambton
29-07-2004, 10:10 AM
Nothing personal or negaticve about the coy. My view is beware that actions of one investor who's now beyond 10% on this stock. When the only real buyer decides enough is enough or wants out, then the price can only go one way, and that's straight down.
Would have to be one hell of an increase in earnings to bring the P/E on FRE back to reality. Is does someone know something hence the current interest?

Prophet
29-07-2004, 11:24 AM
The interest in the stock must surely be partly driven by the broker view (First NZ Capital) estimates that profit will be some 20% at 21M above profit forecast in the IPO prospectus .

I also note that the Cullen fund has this stock as one of its top 10 holdings in NZ.

You've got to love a business that's consistently turned single digit revenue growth into solid double digit earnings growth over a long period.

Lawso
29-07-2004, 12:34 PM
Lambton: I think you'll find that that "unreal" P/E - 36.69 in today's paper, and the pathetic yield, reported as 3.42% - are based on only the half-year figures. Chances are that when the year's result comes out the P/E will roughly halve and the yield % double. I was misled too until someone put me right. The people who do the share tables should differentiate such figures with an asterisk or something.

lambton
29-07-2004, 02:58 PM
Thanks Lawso - if P/E gets below 15 with 30 June profit then I must concede its good value. However I still have a problem knowing that Fisher Funds have just gone beyond 10% (no doubt using some of our money thru the Cullen fund) which must have had a bearing on the rapid increase in price. Nice for your fund stats tho.
Something tells me just to be careful on this one. As I said earlier have made good profits having bought in at $1.60 and exited progressively up to curent prices. Have some to go but not a huge exposure to keep me awake at night.

Long Strangle
29-07-2004, 03:49 PM
Lanbton - PE is approx. 10x core 05 earnings. The information is there, you only need to look at it. LS :)

lambton
30-07-2004, 08:21 AM
05 earnings - are they there or is it pie in the sky.
Who knows. In the meantime the P/E is not 10x

willy_wonker
30-07-2004, 08:29 AM
Lambton, check with your broker if you ar not sure about the numbers. The brokering firm usually have the latest numbers on the company. The market is factoring a good result for FRE. FRE has delivered so far, but will they deliver on the next one is a guess.

It is a concern Fisher Funds holds over 10%. Will hate to see when they start selling. But then Willy is not a greedy person and will take profit when the time is right.

lambton
30-07-2004, 09:52 AM
Thanks Willy. Will do so.

lambton
06-08-2004, 09:35 AM
So the Securities Comm has finally come out and hit the promoters of Freightways with a wet bus ticket. When I first complained 6 mths ago I was told there was nothing in it. Who else got this org off its backside because "they didn't want to do it didn't want to do it"? The who's who of broking (Chairman of the NZX no less to name but one) and thereabouts must have been cr#ping themselves that the Commssion might just beat up on them this time. They had them lock stock and all that.But they needn't have feared, bacause in incestuous NZ what can you expect but this outcome. I reckon a fine of $50m for bullsh#ting the public (regardless of the floats outcome)would have been the answer.

Long Strangle
06-08-2004, 09:35 AM
Sold all of my holding over the past week at $2.55. Now that my parcel has gone next resistance is $2.60. Result due on Monday. All the best for all those still holding. LS :).

lambton
06-08-2004, 09:42 AM
Have a few to go, much as I was soured by the intial public offering of this coy (see earlier comment)I'm holding just now. Someone thinks a good results on the way. Roll on Mon.

Long Strangle
06-08-2004, 09:51 AM
I believe that the result will be fantastic but I do believe this is already public knowledge and therefore the market has already factored it in to the current share price. What the market will be looking for is a positive forward looking statement and then possibly there will be another leg up. LS :).

Wanderer
06-08-2004, 10:53 AM
Interesting comments from the Securities Commission regarding the prospectus and the role of the foundation sharholders, directors and lead managers.

Shareprice dropped from $2.49 to around $2.20 just prior to AMRO selling down at $2.15 less than 6 months after the IPO after stating they would hold for 12 months

Sec Comm said investors have not suffered as a result of the early sell down however the prospectus was found to be misleading.

I guess they're talking about investors from the IPO and not those that bought around $2.49 that referred back to the prospectus.

Lucky its back up there

lambton
06-08-2004, 12:50 PM
Agreed Wanderer. The more I think about it the more I believe the Secy's Comm should now instruct the Justice Dept to instigate criminal proceedings. The promoters of Freightways IPO did after all hoodwink the public and just because a number of the players are blue chip NZ doesn't mean they have immunity from a dilberate breach of Secys Law. I bet if Joe Public breached the Secys Laws in such a cynical and deliberate manner he would be hung drawn and quartered.
Come on Secys Comm hand the case over to the Justice Dept to have a go at. It would be a great picnic.

Wanderer
06-08-2004, 01:41 PM
Maybe Lambton. Unethical and illegal are separate issues but one does tend to wonder where the line is drawn. If Sec Comm are to have any clout let alone respect then a wet bus ticket is not the way to go.

I also wonder what expertise the accumulators of the stock feel they can offer FRE aside from price influence.

lambton
06-08-2004, 03:43 PM
Wanderer Section 58 (2) of the Secy's Act states "where a registered prospectus that includes any untrue stement is distributed, every person who signed the prospectus, or on whose behalf the registered prospectus was signed for the purposes of section 41(b) of this act, commits an offence".
Section 58 (3)Every person who commits an offence against this section (criminal liability for mis-staements in a registered prospectus) is liable
a) On conviction on indictment, to imprisonment for a term not exceeding 5 years or to a fine not exceeding $25,000 or to both; or
b) On summary conviction, to imprisonment for a term not exceeding three months or to a fine not exceeding $15,000, or to both, -
unless he proves, either that the statement was immaterial or that he had reasonable grounds to believe, and did, up to the time of distribution of the prospectus, believe that the statement was true"
The Commssion is obviously of an opinion that the public could have been misled.
My argument is if the highest reulator in the land thinks that the public could have been misled re the Freightways IPO, then why isn't the issue before the Courts.

Wanderer
06-08-2004, 04:08 PM
Thanks for the info on the Securities Act and I do agree Lambton. The Securities Commission can only kerb inappropriate behaviour by fines or convictions. While the consequences are so insignificant the misbehaviour continues. It's no sense trying to fix the gate after the horse has bolted, just look at what happened to Fortex

willy_wonker
06-08-2004, 04:39 PM
The NZ securities commission is like a ***** cat with no fangs. It has always been that way and it will always be this way. Sad, but true.

lambton
06-08-2004, 04:55 PM
And the fat cats are well aware the ### Secys Comm has no fangs and rapes and pillages at will.

lambton
07-08-2004, 11:15 AM
Seen in NZ Herald this morning.
Mild Spanking for ABN Amro Capital
The Securities Commission demonstrates how weak and ineffectual it is. (Richard Inder)
"Listed companies quake in fear at the thought of a New Zealand Securities Commission reprimand - yeah right.
Using all disciplinary powers at its disposal, the commission this week wagged its finger at ABN Amro Capital for making what it describes as a misleading statement in the prospectus for last years float of Freightways. It said. "The Commission stresses that offer documents must not mislead investors. What a weak and ineffectual response. To recap. In the prospectus for the flotation last September ABN Amro Capital said - without qualification - that it intended to retain 19.2% stake in Freightways for twelve months following the listing. But six months later ABN Amro Capital sold almost two thirds of this stake. It justified the move by citing a note on page 90 of the prospectus that aowed it to sell "with consent" of the joint lead managers - First NZ capital and ABN Amro Rothschild. Consent was obtaine. But as the commission noted the promise at the front of the document should have contained an appropriate warning. ABN Amro Capital uses the rather weak defence that the document should have been viewed in its entirety. The commission has made its views plain yet lacks any measure to back them up other than to issue a press release. To be fair the commission recognises the problem and has asked Government for powers to take court action. These powers although they would not necessarily be applied in this case are long overdue. One last point. In an apparent attempt to justify its lack of action, the commission suggests Freightways stellar share price rise from $1.60 to $2.60 yesterday had protected investors from any loss.
Really, Freightways share price may have been higher had ABN Amro Capital been held to its promise at the front of the document. Can commission chairwoman, Jane Diplock argue against that proposition? I think not.

Good on you Richard for raisng this issue in the national media.
However Richard misses a point - the commission can take further action. All it needs to do is pass it on to the Justice dept to pursue under secion 58.
But with NZ Bluechip involved I doubt that would ever happen.
One side issue. An institutional investor friend of mine who bought up large at the selldown says ABN Amro's only regret is selling too cheaply. They feel legally they have complied with NZ secy's law and don't give a sh#t that investors feel they were misled.

lambton
09-08-2004, 08:28 AM
Anyone hazard a guess what the Freightways profit will be 10 AM this morning. My guess its going to be a big one, hence all the interst in the share late last week. And I'm sure the interest was as a result of hard working analysts and not from any other means.

Prophet
09-08-2004, 09:18 AM
All in all a pretty outstanding result and with a continued good outlook moving forward. As LS said the market has already built in the prospects of a good result so a little profit taking now emerging. For the mid to long term holder its time to top up.:)

FRE09/08/2004FLLYR REL: 0940 HRS Freightways Limited FLLYR: FRE: Full Year Results to 30 June 2004 and Final Dividend SUMMARY OF PRELIMINARY FULL YEAR ANNOUNCEMENT Name of Listed Issuer: Freightways Limited For Full Year Ended: 30 June 2004 (NB: No comparatives provided asFreightways Limited was listed on the NZX on 29 September 2003) This report has been prepared in a manner which complies with generallyaccepted accounting practice and gives a true and fair view of the matters towhich the report relates and is based on audited accounts. CONSOLIDATED OPERATING STATEMENT Current Full Year NZ$'000; Up/Down %; Previous Corresponding Full YearNZ$'000 OPERATING REVENUE: Trading revenue:214,498; NM%; NAOther revenue:589; NM%; N/A OPERATING SURPLUS BEFORE UNUSUAL ITEMS AND TAX:27,293; NM%; N/A Unusual items for separate disclosure:0; NM%; N/A OPERATING SURPLUS BEFORE TAX:27,293; NM%; N/A Less tax on operating profit:11,156; NM%; N/A OPERATING SURPLUS AFTER TAX BUT BEFORE MINORITY INTERESTS:16,137; NM%; N/A Less minority interests:786; NM%; N/A OPERATING SURPLUS AFTER TAX ATTRIBUTABLE TO MEMBERS OF LISTED ISSUER:15,351; NM%; N/A Extraordinary items after tax attributable to Members of the Listed Issuer:0; NM%; N/A OPERATING SURPLUS AND EXTRAORDINARY ITEMS AFTER TAX ATTRIBUTABLE TO MEMBERSOF THE LISTED ISSUER:15,351; NM%; N/A Earnings per share:13.7 cps; N/A cps Final Dividend:6.9 cps Record Date: 17 September 2004 Date Payable: 30 September 2004 Imputation tax credit on latest dividend: 3.3985 cps Short details of any bonus or rights issue or other item(s) of importance notpreviously released to the market: Nil Detailed information: The Full Year Report June 2004 and presentation areattached and can also be found in the investor section ofwww.freightways.co.nz. From the Chairman and Managing Director: Your Directors are pleased to present the financial results for FreightwaysLimited (Freightways) for the year ended 30 June 2004. 2004 has been asignificant and successful year for Freightways, with its group of businessesbeing returned to New Zealand public ownership through Freightways' listingon the NZX in September 2003. Freightways has delivered a record result inexcess of IPO forecasts and it has continued to forge positive growth in allthe markets it operates in. Operating performance Operating performance for the prior comparable period has been presented on apro-forma basis in the Full Year Report June 2004 (attached to thisannouncement) so as to reflect consolidated results had the parent entityexisted at that time. These pro-forma adjustments enable a like-for-likecomparison and take into account marginally lower compliance costs and higherdepreciation as a result of Freightways' change of ownership and subsequentpublic listing. Consolidated operating revenue for the year of $214.5 million was 10% higherthan the prior corresponding period. Earnings before interest, tax andamortisation (EBITA) were $40.7 million, 27% higher than the priorcorresponding period. Consolidated net profit after tax (NPAT) beforeminority interest was $16.1 million. Cash generated from operations beforeinterest and tax was $48.2 million. Performance compared to IPO As signalled in Freightways' half year announcement the Company has exceededits IPO forecasts. This has occurred on all fronts. Key comparatives are: 2004 Actual $000; 2004 IPO forecast $000 Revenue 214,498; 207,297EBITDA 45,618; 41,813EBITA 40,714; 36,118NPAT 16,137; 13,533NPATA 21,081; 18,352Dividend 15,800;

lambton
09-08-2004, 12:14 PM
Watch for media to hot up re the IPO misleading the public. While this type of dirt is around the general public will shun the stock.

willy_wonker
10-08-2004, 08:31 AM
:DBeautiful... just pure beauty :D

Wanderer
10-08-2004, 03:03 PM
So WW you are obviously happy from your buy at what was it, $2.16 or thereabouts.

Are you holding or are you selling?

While I like the Company I am unsure about the players. Another off market sell down would stuff things up again

willy_wonker
10-08-2004, 04:47 PM
Wanderer, there is nothing wrong with taking profit. One can never guess the top or bottom. If you are still confident FRE can deliver in the future, but are have doubts, then sell half your holdings.

rmbbrave
27-10-2005, 12:48 PM
Freightways profit up in first quarter

27.10.05 11.15am


Transport company Freightways said today September quarter net profit was up 21 per cent on a year ago at $6.1 million.

Earnings before interest, tax and amortisation (Ebita) were up 12 per cent on 2004 at $13.2m and revenue rose 9 per cent to $62.4m.

Managing director Dean Bracewell told shareholders at the annual meeting that the performance had been achieved as a result of continuing support from existing customers, good gains in market share and some pricing improvement.

"While some existing customers are trading at lower levels than for the same period last year, we have been able to offset this organic volume decline with the successful implementation of growth strategies in the market."

These include investment in expanded sales teams, linehaul capacity and infrastructure in most of businesses, designed both to assist the retention of existing customers and to attract new customers.

Investment in these initiatives had resulted in a higher cost of sales than in recent years.

"The sales growth that we are already achieving through these strategies is expected to contribute to future sustainable earnings growth for Freightways," Mr Bracewell said.

During the quarter Freightways completed the acquisition of Auckland and Wellington courier company Kiwi Express.

Mr Bracewell said the domestic New Zealand market from Freightways' perspective was less buoyant than it had been in recent years, as shown by lower volumes from some existing customers.

He said: "At this stage of our annual business cycle, and subject to factors beyond our control, the outlook for Freightways, its shareholders and all other stakeholders remains positive."

Freightways shares shares were up 10c at $3.07 today. They have traded between $2.39 and $3.50 in the last year.

- NZPA

lambton
27-10-2005, 01:22 PM
Its a big call saying you can continue to grow earnings into a fierce headwind.

rmbbrave
07-02-2006, 08:54 PM
Freightways posts 20 per cent profit lift

07.02.06 1.00pm


Courier company Freightways today reported a 20 per cent rise in first-half profit, but warned the business environment would become tougher as the economy slows.

Freightways posted a net after-tax profit of $13.5 million for the six months to December 31, compared with $11.2m in the same period a year earlier.

Shares in Freightways, which declared an interim dividend of 8.5c per share, opened 2c higher at $3.30 on the news.

Freightways has around 40 per cent of the local courier market, with brands including New Zealand Couriers, Post Haste Couriers, Castle Parcels, SUB60, Security Express, and the newly-acquired Kiwi Express.

Today's result was based on operating revenue of $130m, 11 per cent higher than the same year ago period.

Earnings before interest, tax, and amortisation (ebita), rose 10 per cent to $29m.

The company, which expanded its flagship New Zealand Couriers business into business mail and information management ahead of an NZX listing in September 2003, said most of its turnover was still generated from its express package business.

Modest growth from existing customers, good market share gains and disciplined pricing strategies all contributed to revenue growth, Freightways said.

Price increases offset the impact of high fuel costs during the period and the express business was also boosted by sales from Kiwi Express, which Freightways purchased in October last year.

Freightway's business mail brand, DX Mail, delivered strong revenue growth in comparison to the previous half year. The development of DX Mail's domestic street mail delivery network was also progressing to plan.

Its information management businesses, Archive Security, Document Destruction Services, and Data Security Services also delivered a greatly improved result.

Looking ahead, Freightways said it was eyeing growth opportunities in all three of its core markets, as a way of offsetting lower growth from its existing customers in an increasingly "challenging" business environment.

- NZPA

rmbbrave
23-07-2006, 01:53 PM
Freightways makes U-turn
23 July 2006

By TERRY HALL
Circumstances change. When Freightways was relisted on the New Zealand stock exchange nearly three years ago, it was adamant it had no intention of expanding its operations to Australia because competition there was too tough.


Now faced with harsher business prospects at home due to the slowing economy, it has changed its mind, paying $A30 million ($35.8m) for Australian information management technology company DataBank Technologies and hinting there could be other purchases across the Tasman. Chief executive Dean Bracewell said the purchases could be in information management or express freight.

These are areas in which the company has acknowledged expertise and a solid track record of success. Investors quickly endorsed the expansion, which saw Freightways shares jump to an all-time high of $4.15, although they subsequently slipped coinciding with rising oil prices. Freightways has been a consistently solid performer since it came back on the market in September 2003 at $1.60.

Analysts, too, endorsed the purchase - especially the terms. Freightways is buying the business effectively on hire purchase, paying a deposit of $A18m and two subsequent payments of $A6m by 2008, providing agreed earnings targets are met. These terms have been agreed by the founders of the business, who will stay and help manage it.

There are connections. Freightways believes the management culture at DataBank is similar to its own because some of its managers formerly worked at Ausdoc, the Australian group that owned Freightways for many years. Marcus Curley said the price Freightways was paying was similar to that paid by Brambles for the remainder of the Ausdoc group late last year.

Curley said Databank represents a low-risk entry into the attractive information management market, and into a company that seems to offer a high-quality business with experienced management, market-leading service levels and blue chip customers, including many top law firms, merchant banks and accounting firms.

DataBank, which specialises in offering protection for data storage, is the second-biggest player in Australia, with 20% of the market, behind Brambles subsidiary Recall, which dominates with 70%. Dennis Lee, of ABN Amro, suggested Brambles (which has been selling other assets) might eventually decide to quit Recall too, which could provide another opportunity for Freightways to expand into this fast-growing area.

AdvertisementAdvertisementLee said DataBank should provide around 6% to 7% of Freightways' group earnings, and would be self-funding and represented good value. He said it was a significant strategic move, in what was still a relatively undeveloped market, and would provide a beachhead for Freightways to build on its core competitiveness in the Australasian market.

Following the purchase, Goldman Sachs JBWere upgraded its Freightways valuation from $3.70 to $5.10. It recommended the stock as a long-term buy, though as a short-term market perform because of expectations of slowing revenue growth due to current trading conditions. Curley said that while the New Zealand express freight market was relatively mature, international experience suggested volume growth should outpace GDP growth for at least the next 10 years, and the current structure of the New Zealand market (an effective duopoly) should support regular but modest price increases and improvements in operating margins.

ABN Amro increased its target price by 5.2% to $4.05. Lee said the purchase of DataBank had been quickly absorbed into Freightways' share price. However, because of the short-term challenging environment facing Freightways, ABN Amro was retaining a hold recommendation.

UBS retained a neutral recommendation, with a price target of $3.90 and expectations of a gross yield of 7.3%.

First NZ Capital said it was neutral on the stock, with a 12-month target of $4. It believed Freightways would face more tepid organic growth as the New Zealand economy cooled in its second ha

rmbbrave
31-07-2006, 10:54 AM
Freightways profit up 11 per cent to $24.3 million

but SP down 15c to $3.67 in early trading today.

UPDATED 10.50am Monday July 31, 2006


Transport company Freightways has announced an 11 per cent rise in profit to $24.3 million in the year to June 30.

The record result was achieved during a very challenging year, through a continuing focus on fundamental business disciplines, the company said in its announcement today.

Along with the net surplus after tax of $24.3 million, earnings per share were 19.1cps, a rise of 9 per cent on a year earlier.

Consolidated operating revenue rose 10 per cent to $257 million, earnings before interest, tax and amortisation (EBITA) were up 6 per cent to $53.4 million.

Consolidated net profit after tax and before amortisation (NPATA) was $29.3 million, up 9 per cent, while cash generated from operations before interest and tax was $53.3 million.

A final dividend of 8.75cps, fully imputed, will be paid on September 30, bringing the total payout for the year to 17.25cps, fully imputed, an 8 per cent rise.

Freightways said its core express package business was expected to continue to perform soundly, although growth would be influenced by the New Zealand domestic economy which continued to show signs of slowing.

It had seen evidence of that slowing among its customers for some time now and had not yet seen any signs to suggest the business environment would be any less challenging in the near term.

Growth of the business mail division would also be partly influenced by slowing business activity, Freightways said.

But it was expected the information management division would continue to show strong growth due to increased outsourcing and ongoing organic growth.

The recent acquisition of DataBank in Australia was an important step in the development and growth of Freightways, diversifying the company's interests both geographically and also deeper into the information management market.

In time it was expected DataBank would create the opportunity to develop further growth initiatives in Australasia, Freightways said.

Capital investment of about $9 million was expected during the next financial year in areas supporting growth in core and emerging businesses.

Freightways acknowledged organic growth in the core express package operations had been modest, with the primary drivers of revenue growth being good gains in market share and the increased pricing necessary to offset rising fuel costs.

Its brands of New Zealand Couriers, Post Haste Couriers, Castle Parcels, SUB60 and Security Express were joined by Auckland and Wellington-based Kiwi Express, which was bought last October.

In the past year the information management division - Archive Security, Document Destruction Services and Data Security Services - had again increased their contribution to the result.

Archive Security in particular had achieved significant growth, both from existing customers and from new customers outsourcing management of their archived documents, Freightways said.

That growth had brought forward plans to extend its facilities in the main New Zealand business centres.

Having recently finished an extension in Christchurch, the company planned to extend in Auckland during the 2007 financial year and in Wellington shortly after that.

rmbbrave
01-08-2006, 10:04 AM
Handbrake pulled on Freightways

Tuesday August 1, 2006
By Jenny Keown


Growth at courier company Freightways has slowed due to a less buoyant economy and higher fuel prices, and it is expected to slow further in the short term.

Freightways reported a rise in full-year earnings yesterday, but said it expected short-term growth to be stifled by a downturn in the economy and continued rise in fuel prices.

The company yesterday delivered profit growth of 11 per cent for the year ended June 30, driven by price rises of 4 per cent to offset the escalating cost of fuel, market share gains in its core business and new business for information management.

Net profit jumped 9 per cent to $29.3 million, operating revenue rose 10 per cent to $257 million and earnings before interest, tax and before amortisation (ebitda) rose 6 per cent to $53.4 millon.

Revenue growth in its core businesses - express package services - was around 10 per cent in the past year, down from the 18 per cent average annual growth over the five preceding years, said Freightways managing director Dean Bracewell.

The express package services, made up of NZ Couriers, Post Haste Couriers, Castle Parcels, SUB60 and Security Express, provides more than 80 per cent of total revenue.

"We are very focused on our growth strategy in our express package.We have had labour costs go up, through investing in people and facilities and are and well positioned to grow."

Bracewell said he saw "no signs" of new competitors in the New Zealand market.

Shares in Freightways closed down 14 cents at $3.68.

To offset downturn in the express package market, Freightways is "investigating closely" the possibilities of acquisitions in Australia, where the players are Australia Post, Australian Air Express, T & T, and Toll.

Freightways' recent purchase of information management company Databank in Australia - which covers 20 per cent of the market - would be used as a platform to develop all sections of the business in there.

"Once we understand and are operating in Australia, it will be easier for us to make a decision as to whether we do or not go into the express package market," Bracewell said.

The company was well positioned for strong growth when the domestic economy lifted he did not expect that to happen in the short-term.

"We have seen no evidence whatsoever that it [the economy] will be any less challenging but will continue to invest in people, infrastructure and customer service."

The company was not looking to diversify outside of express package, business mail and information management, he said.

rmbbrave
12-08-2006, 09:40 AM
Transport sector ripe for takeovers
12 August 2006
By ANDREW JANES

Expect more takeover activity in the New Zealand transport sector with express delivery company Freightways the most vulnerable target, a research note from Goldman Sachs JB Were says.


The brokerage bases its prediction on the experience of the British transport sector where two-thirds of listed transport companies have been subject to a successful takeover, a board-recommended takeover or have disposed of major assets in the past 3½ years.

"Given the similarity between the New Zealand and UK transport sectors we believe further takeover offers for New Zealand transport companies are likely over time," GSJBW analyst Marcus Curley said.

Freightways is the most vulnerable company to a takeover offer because of its very open share register and the fact that its current $3.72 share price is well below GSJBW's $5.25 a share valuation, he said.

"We think it's worth that much because we believe the express deliveries market has the scope to deliver consistent and reasonable growth over the next ten years. And given the dual structure of the market (split between Freightways and NZ Post) there is scope for consistent pricing power to emerge as well."

GSJBW lists Toll Holdings, UPS, FedEx and Australia Post as potential buyers of Freightways.

"For me Toll Holdings stands out as the most likely," Mr Curley said. "They have said that they're interested in expanding their presence in just-in-time transport in New Zealand."

AdvertisementAdvertisementOther potential, but less likely, takeover candidates identified in the research note include Auckland International Airport and the Port of Tauranga. Both companies are currently trading below recent valuations for comparable companies in Britain, Mr Curley said.

Hutchison, Maersk, Toll, Ports of Auckland and Ports of Singapore are identified as potential buyers for Port of Tauranga, while Macquarie Airports is singled out as a buyer for AIAL.

Any buyer of Port of Tauranga would have to convince the Bay of Plenty Regional Council, which has a 55 per cent stake, to sell, Mr Curley said.

"But the local government shareholders in ports are becoming more open to ideas as to how to secure the best future for their ports with Christchurch City Council leading the way, which was a surprise for most people."

In Britain, private equity investors as well as industry players have been active in the transport sector. In this part of the world Macquarie Bank, Bab****& Brown or the Goldman Sach's Australian and New Zealand private equity arms could be interested in New Zealand transport assets, Mr Curley said.

Meanwhile, freight forwarder Mainfreight, which has performed well recently, would definitely be attractive to a number of buyers but one of the founders – the Bruce Plested family with a 19 per cent stake – would be unlikely to sell, he said.

"A deal there on paper seems unlikely but there could be a joint venture or a contract relationship rather than a direct takeover."

One company thought to be interested in Mainfreight is Swiss-based freight forwarder Kuehne & Nagel, which has major operations in New Zealand.

shasta
12-08-2006, 12:50 PM
Fisher Funds are holding >10% of FRE & the only shareholder large enough to block a takeover.

Disc: FRE indirectly held via KFL

Mothman
05-10-2006, 07:37 PM
Any views about the future of Freightways out there?

My ten cents worth:

* NZ economy tipped to slow so freight firms volumes may decrease slightly

*P/E ratio less now than MFT, although granted MFT has been growing at a faster rate

*Good management

*No word yet about performance of the Australian Data storage company acquisition

*Oil price drop should be positive for NZ economy and FRE

*Potential Takover target:

- Open register (Fishers could block with 10% though)
- Medium size (approx $468M)
- Good cashflow

*Potential suitors:

- TOLL
- Mainfreight (although probably would not get Commerce Commission approval)
- Australian Private Equity Companies
- Port companies?

Disclosure: I hold FRE

shasta
05-10-2006, 08:05 PM
Mothman

Im pretty sure that Freightways have already put in place strategies to counteract any slow down, & companies still need there goods delivered, even in a slowing economy.

I would imagine even in slow economic times, perhaps the only downside would be a flat profit/revenue or minimal growth.

Fundamentals still look great going forward, but would be watching the charts for an exit, or taking some profits on FRE.

Fisher Funds 10% holding will ensure any takeover predator would have to pay a handsome premium, so not a bad stock to be holding at present. ;)

kittydashwood
05-10-2006, 09:28 PM
yeah you think it would react on the day oil dropped 4%.
It didn't ... Buyers just aren't fussed and the sellers won't drop the prices.
Is this FRE trading range weakness? A prercursor to a technical test?

Mothman
16-10-2006, 04:29 PM
Any reasons out there for rise in FRE today:

* Fishers adding to their holding
* Market leaking news of Pending Takeover like a sieve as per usual
* Broken resistance at $3.78

Who knows?

Mothman
17-10-2006, 10:36 AM
Whats up? FRE up another 2.6% today already!

Mothman
15-11-2006, 07:15 PM
I am considering taking profits at this stage but:

* Freightways has just made an all time high
* Something could be up (which will increase the price further)

Quite a nice rise from early October

Phaedrus are you able to post a chart and your comments please?

Seiya
20-12-2006, 02:23 PM
It is down -10 so far today. Anyone knows what is up?

Disc: Waiting on the side line to get in

BRICKS
12-06-2007, 02:39 PM
BEWARNED, TOLL is looking to add to its collection and FRE mite be a CONTENDER.. [8D]

monopoly
09-08-2007, 09:20 PM
Phaedrus,

As I mentioned on the NZO thread I'd respect your opinion on the FRE chart. Its traded nicely in an uptrending channel over the last few years but has recently peaked to the upside outside the channel and currently to the downside outside the channel. OBV seems to be still solid (and has looked worse in the past where major sell downs have occured).

From a FA standpoint growth has slowed but still positive and they are laying the foundation for future growth in both different businesses (post and doc mgmt) and markets (Australia).

For me the 2 views don't seem to be adding up. Would appreciate your view on thew TA outlook.

Regards

Phaedrus
10-08-2007, 09:00 AM
Mothman, I have only just now noticed that you asked for this chart 9 months ago. Here it is, finally, by way of Monopoly. I believe this is my record for tardiness.

FRE is a sound stock that has been hit fairly hard lately. The chart looks quite similar to those of GPG, PPL, FPH and others. All of these stocks were in steady, very satisfactory, uptrends - until their long-term trendlines were broken. What to do? Personally, I sell and ask questions later. Staunch fundamentalists re-examine their selection criteria, observe that the stock is still fundamentally sound and do nothing. The more confident might even buy more. After all, the company is still exactly the same as it was before the current weakness - right? The value is still there, unchanged - even enhanced. This is just another example of the market getting it wrong.
I do not see selling as a vote of no-confidence in the stock. I can buy back in anytime I like - perhaps at a much lower price than that at which I exited. In the meantime, I have in effect taken out an insurance policy on my gains. They are safe, no matter how far the market falls. I monitor market indices very closely, using them to control my overall market strategy. Right now, I am in "Caution" mode. This decrees that I MUST act on all Sell signals. So, for me, if I am to keep to my system, hanging in there and doing nothing is simply not an option.

http://h1.ripway.com/Phaedrus/FRE810.gif

This chart clearly shows the break of the long-term trendline - one that had been confirmed many times over the years. I could have added a multitude of other indicators, all showing essentially the same thing, all firing off Sell signals as the uptrend weakened and ended.
I have shown a "20%" Trailing Stop. You can see that this has not been hit - yet. Consider this, though. If/when the trailing stop IS hit, those acting on it will have given over 20% back to the market since the FRE high. To my mind that is a lot - way too much. A trailing stop is better than nothing, but it is no substitute for a more comprehensive trend-following system.

The OBV (not shown) continues to rise. This stock continues to be accumulated by committed investors. They are buying as the shareprice slides - and paying for it. Just as all uptrends end, so too do all downtrends. This one will end, offering good buying opportunities sometime in the future. Who knows how far world markets will slide? In the meantime, your FRE money is safe. When the time comes, you can emerge from under your stone, flush with cash and able to afford a bigger stake in FRE than you had before.

kissssik
10-08-2007, 09:27 AM
The odds are 19x greater for a company to go bust where a board member has been involved in a previously failed company...Source D&B New Zealand Eyes open as always.

monopoly
10-08-2007, 11:43 AM
Thanks Phaedrus, you highlight well the different decision making processes for FA v TA. I'm generally happy with my entry decision making (which is FA/Buffet biased) but quite unhappy with my exit decision making. I recall reading once that your entry and exit descions should be based on the same criteria. I do however get the feeling that TA provides better exit calls as it tends to be a leader on FA info (unless of course you are a big player and privvy to timely information and rumour). It is for this reason I find myself concerned about the current chart more so than the fundementals.

Fundementally FRE is still a good company, well managed and financially strong. Lower earnings reflect there recent acquisitions which shows their eye to the future. The are holding up well in the current sell off.

Also thanks for your comments on the weekly OBV on the NZO thread. Perhaps it indicates weekly traders at work??

tobo
27-09-2007, 08:41 PM
Is that a break in the 4 month trendline I see?
- obot

Lizard
17-08-2010, 09:45 AM
I notice at least one broker upgraded recommendation to accumulate on the back of yesterdays result - mainly just on the basis that they seem to have passed the low in the cycle. However, I like my recovery stocks to be either very cheap or have a higher proportion of fixed costs that makes for more rapid upswing in margins.

By my measure, FRE is over-priced at $2.81 current - a fairer price would be somewhere below $2.20.

Oiler
17-08-2010, 05:06 PM
I notice at least one broker upgraded recommendation to accumulate on the back of yesterdays result - mainly just on the basis that they seem to have passed the low in the cycle. However, I like my recovery stocks to be either very cheap or have a higher proportion of fixed costs that makes for more rapid upswing in margins.

By my measure, FRE is over-priced at $2.81 current - a fairer price would be somewhere below $2.20.

Appreciate your comments Lizard as FRE is one stock I was looking to jump into..... will wait for a lower price.

macduffy
17-08-2010, 05:28 PM
I notice at least one broker upgraded recommendation to accumulate on the back of yesterdays result - mainly just on the basis that they seem to have passed the low in the cycle. However, I like my recovery stocks to be either very cheap or have a higher proportion of fixed costs that makes for more rapid upswing in margins.

By my measure, FRE is over-priced at $2.81 current - a fairer price would be somewhere below $2.20.

I always respect your judgement, Lizard.

Would you care to give a brief summary of your value?

jmsnz
17-08-2010, 05:33 PM
I always respect your judgement, Lizard.

Would you care to give a brief summary of your value?

That would be very interesting, particularly alongside a valuation for MFT currently trading around 6.50. Which represents better value?

Dr_Who
17-08-2010, 05:54 PM
I always respect your judgement, Lizard.

Would you care to give a brief summary of your value?

I too would like Lizards assessment.

I had a look at FRE a week before their announcement but didnt buy any shares. One would have thought a weak retail market may have an impact on FRE?

Could this company be a possible T/O target?

Lizard
17-08-2010, 05:55 PM
Please don't take my comments as advice - I'm just an opinion; one voice in the bazaar! I'm sure all ShareTraders make their own decisions and choose stocks that fit their own investing style and timeframe.

Results season, I am processing results pretty quickly and just like to stick a quick view up - then hope others add their own points of view to the mix so the verdict can percolate. Probably best I come back to it for another look in a few weeks or months when I have a few hours spare to look through, as FRE is not a share I know in any depth.

K1W1G0LD
17-08-2010, 06:10 PM
2842I would'nt hold your breath for $2.20 FRE has'nt hit anything south of $2.65 for quite a while.

macduffy
17-08-2010, 07:36 PM
Please don't take my comments as advice - I'm just an opinion; one voice in the bazaar! I'm sure all ShareTraders make their own decisions and choose stocks that fit their own investing style and timeframe.


Yes, everything we post here is "just an opinion".

But when numbers are bandied about, I'd still like to know how they're arrived at.


Disc: I don't hold FRE.

Lizard
17-08-2010, 07:43 PM
Okay. Well I guess I best stop posting numbers or I am going to be on here day and night typing up my analysis. :(

Lizard
17-08-2010, 09:09 PM
Right, now that I've had a wee tanty, I've got a few minutes to give some numbers.

But firstly, I reckon that if you want an opinion that comes with a justification and analysis, you should go talk to your broker. This "open-source analysis" stuff can't be read in the same way and it's crazy to expect posters to either come up with a justification or else water down their opinions to something suitably vague.

Anyway, looking back at my calcs, the $2.20 is my assessment based on:
1. A DCF of my estimates of forward NPAT for the next 5+ years, based on a growth rate that might be sustainable after considering the variable vs fixed cost nature of the business. Using a 10% discount rate and 3% terminal growth. But, like any DCF, it will have an amplified GIGO factor.
2. EV/EBIT currently sits at 10.8, which I consider very high unless applied to a company which could almost double EBIT in the next year - I don't think this is the case for FRE. I think an EV/EBIT of 9.0 is the most I would want to stomach.
3. Yield of 5.0% is nice, but currently not exceptional.
4. Debt remains at the top end of a comfortable range in current market and near term growth does not sound exceptional, so I personally would not want to pay top dollar for it.

Just my views - others will have other opinions. I don't have the advantages of an analyst in being able to talk to management. Shares go up and down for other reasons besides value and value is just the framework that choose to use.

Lizard
18-08-2010, 07:12 AM
That would be very interesting, particularly alongside a valuation for MFT currently trading around 6.50. Which represents better value?

I don't see a huge choice between FRE and MFT on value. I think both are good, well-run companies that would be fine to hold for the long-term. However, I think there is better value around at present, but then that is probably my weakness - always wanting to buy too cheap.

I've compared some numbers on both and would see MFT at $6.50 as been somewhat more expensive than FRE at $2.81, based on EV/EBIT, and yield. Also, I'd consider FRE to have a higher theoretical growth rate (at constant capital), based on current returns and model. So if I was buying for a long term portfolio and had to choose between them, I'd probably choose FRE at current prices. However, I'd consider FRE higher risk from balance sheet perspective, so would be watching closely for anything that might impact cashflow and debt.

If I was really interested in either of them for a long term portfolio, I'd probably be looking a lot closer for any specific changes that they might be exposed to in currencies, costs and markets before making a call. To me, the price is not attractive enough to justify the extra work at this point.

macduffy
18-08-2010, 07:26 AM
Just my views - others will have other opinions

Thanks, Liz.

Always helps to know the reasoning involved.

Cheers.

Lizard
18-08-2010, 08:01 AM
Thanks, Liz.

Always helps to know the reasoning involved.

Cheers.

Hey, doesn't payback on forums mean taking the time to add your own opinion? :p

(That's not meant to be a competitive challenge of any kind - I'm just genuinely interested in having some other opinions to mull over in return for sticking my neck out.)

Catalyst
18-08-2010, 11:41 AM
I generally agree with you Liz, except I have a fair value for FRE around the $2.55-$2.75 range.

Based on this week's FY10 result:

EBITDA = $63.7m
NPAT = $28.9m
Net debt = $150m
FY dividend = 14c
# shares = 153.6m

My valuation looks like this:

1. PE of 14.5x = 14.5 x $28.9m/153.6m = $2.73

2. EV/EBITDA of 8.5x = (8.5 x $63.7m - $150m)/153.6 = $2.55

3. Gross dividend yield of 7.5% = 14c / (7.5% * 70%) = $2.67

Lizard
18-08-2010, 11:59 AM
Yes, looks reasonable Catalyst.

I think I was probably a bit harsher on it because I reckon the debt levels still make it vulnerable to a (somewhat distant for now) threat of dilution if things were to turn back down at all. (Also more exposed to rising interest costs should this occur). But these considerations probably don't need to carry too much weight in the current 6 month period anyway.

jmsnz
18-08-2010, 04:53 PM
I don't see a huge choice between FRE and MFT on value. I think both are good, well-run companies that would be fine to hold for the long-term. However, I think there is better value around at present, but then that is probably my weakness - always wanting to buy too cheap.

I've compared some numbers on both and would see MFT at $6.50 as been somewhat more expensive than FRE at $2.81, based on EV/EBIT, and yield. Also, I'd consider FRE to have a higher theoretical growth rate (at constant capital), based on current returns and model. So if I was buying for a long term portfolio and had to choose between them, I'd probably choose FRE at current prices. However, I'd consider FRE higher risk from balance sheet perspective, so would be watching closely for anything that might impact cashflow and debt.

If I was really interested in either of them for a long term portfolio, I'd probably be looking a lot closer for any specific changes that they might be exposed to in currencies, costs and markets before making a call. To me, the price is not attractive enough to justify the extra work at this point.

Lizard,

Thank-you for both this response and the numbers you used to get to the evaluation, similar thanks to Catalyst as well.

I am a newby at this and have no accounting/financial background and on something of a voyage of discovery as to what my investment strategy should be about.

I prefer MFT from a busines strategy perspective in that they have a vision to be a global logistics operator which seems a tough ask, but even if they are only partially successful would offer more growth than FRE's multi-brand NZ strategy. Though accept your point about capital requirements for this.

Once again thanks for the enlightenment on valuation:)

Lizard
18-08-2010, 07:52 PM
Hi jmsnz,

Good points there re MFT/FRE.

Re being a newbie, I would say markets are made up of all types of investors - sophisticated to naive, with all shades of strategies they use to invest. That is what makes a market and sets a price. In my view, that is the beauty of a forum in that it is just a representative sample of the market - so every opinion and view on a stock goes some way towards giving a picture of where the price might be heading. (I don't consider myself any kind of expert either, although I have a bad habit of writing as though I might be... I guess I just picked up the jargon from reading too many analyst reports over the years...)

pierre
30-05-2011, 09:42 AM
Does anyone have any thoughts on the reason(s) for the recent rise and fall in the SP of Freightways? They've dropped around 20 cents in the past week - at a time when MFT have just announced a great result and their SP has headed north as a consequence.

Phaedrus
30-05-2011, 11:43 AM
Pierre, before setting out on a fruitless quest to "explain" this drop, first look at its magnitude. FRE is currently down about 6% from its recent peaks. You can see from the chart that such a level of volatility is quite normal for this stock - within its current ongoing uptrend it has fallen as much as 10%, on occasion. So, is this a significant fall? No, it is not. Why bother trying to explain it?

FRE is in a clear uptrend, and has been for nearly a year, so far. All price action is within a nice tidy trend channel as marked below. Don't worry about relatively small retracements, they are only to be expected in any uptrend.

The blue arrow marks another occasion when FRE dropped 6% - how much of a concern do you reckon that should that have been?

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/FRE530.gif

macduffy
30-05-2011, 11:45 AM
Just a guess but the market may be thinking that FRE might be having trouble competing against MFT, given the latter's good performance. After all, it's not as though the economy's booming with a strongly growing market for these companies.

pierre
30-05-2011, 12:23 PM
Thanks Phaedrus - you make a very good point. Obviously, that's why you're labelled a Guru - and I'm still a junior member!

The current price drop just seemed to me to be a slightly odd reaction at the time that MFT is powering ahead. So, probably a good time to add to my FRE holding.

Catalyst
15-08-2011, 07:32 PM
OK result but FRE still carrying a fair amount of debt. Multiples look a bit on the high side IMO.

From today's FY11 result:

EBITDA = $66m
NPAT = $31m (excluding $1m in non-recurring earthquake costs)
Net debt = $154m
FY dividend = 14.5c
# shares = 153.6m
Current share price = $3.21

1. PE = $3.21 / ($31m/153.6m) = 16.0x

2. EV/EBITDA = (153.6m x $3.21 + $154m) / $66m = 9.8x

3. Gross dividend yield = 14.5c / 321 / 70% = 6.5% (75% payout ratio)

voltage
15-08-2011, 07:49 PM
is mainfreight as better pick?

percy
18-08-2011, 07:20 PM
is mainfreight as better pick?
I am a trustee of an estate which holds FRE,while one of the benificieries works at Mainfreight.We looked at selling FRE and buying Mainfreight,but decided to hang onto FRE as we felt a lot of future growth was built into MFT's shareprice.Should MFT not deliver the SP will suffer.FRE has a lot better yield and as they were purchased at float,the yield on purchase price is very good.With internet sales growing the prospects for FRE are sound.

Lizard
18-08-2011, 08:10 PM
With internet sales growing the prospects for FRE are sound.

NZ Post dying because they have less mail because of the internet... FRE flying because they have more parcels because of the internet...

percy
18-08-2011, 08:17 PM
NZ Post dying because they have less mail because of the internet... FRE flying because they have more parcels because of the internet...

Not so many people writing letters to each other is the real reason.I pay my accounts by internet so even less mail.
What I was really trying to say but didn't;, FRE deliver the things you buy on the internet,where as MFT handle larger freight.

voltage
18-08-2011, 08:19 PM
thanks, sounds like owning both is a good idea

percy
18-08-2011, 08:32 PM
thanks, sounds like owning both is a good idea
Yes ,that may be the right way to go.Both companies are very well managed.

jmsnz
19-08-2011, 03:37 PM
I don't actually see that FRE and MFT are all that similar really - just go to their websites and read the about us pages they have quite different aims and aspirations. Yes, they both shift freight, but they do it in quite different ways and for different reasons. In MFT's case they have designs on being a global logistics operator - a lofty aim but they are certainly making steps in the right direction. In FRE's case they are about express freight in NZ.

I hold MFT and are considering FRE, I think both make sense for their own reasons.

Snow Leopard
24-04-2012, 04:46 PM
And then down over 2% to $4.02.

I own this in the ShareTrader competition but not in real life.
However it is in my buy category at the moment (where Mainfreight is not)

best wishes
Paper Tiger

Blendy
18-05-2012, 12:32 PM
Have i missed something here? From $4.20ish last week or so, down to $3.75.

whirly
18-05-2012, 12:40 PM
I sold out of these. Could be affected by low volumes on Trade Me is a wild guess. Not to mention hitting highs and now negative market sentiment.

h2so4
18-05-2012, 01:39 PM
TOL ASX got smashed after releasing an update. Currently down 22% over 2 days. Could be a flow on effect.

Lizard
13-08-2012, 11:42 AM
Cracker start to reporting season ...

At $3.90, it isn't cheap though. And has enough debt that they wouldn't want to see any glitches (though should be manageable).

Trend probably continue in the right direction, but only worth buying dips and selling peaks, as baseline sp growth maybe only 10%?

Snow Leopard
13-08-2012, 01:58 PM
At $3.90, it isn't cheap though. And has enough debt that they wouldn't want to see any glitches (though should be manageable).

Trend probably continue in the right direction, but only worth buying dips and selling peaks, as baseline sp growth maybe only 10%?

I absolutely agree.
having bunged the results in the calculating engine the best current value I have is $3.51.

best wishes
Paper Tiger

pierre
25-10-2012, 12:02 PM
Pretty nice news from FRE this morning - NPAT for the September quarter up 14% in "a low growth environment".

SP up to 447 today.

Have held - and topped up - since the IPO in 2005 - a very happy longterm holder here.

percy
25-10-2012, 05:41 PM
Pretty nice news from FRE this morning - NPAT for the September quarter up 14% in "a low growth environment".

SP up to 447 today.

Have held - and topped up - since the IPO in 2005 - a very happy longterm holder here.

Well done.Great company.Great management.
Alan Gibbs in his book Serious Fun said how surprised he was that management continued the best practises Trevor Farmer taught them.

winner69
12-08-2013, 10:19 AM
Another solid year for freightways

Good for the economy when freight keeps getting moved around in ever increasing quantities

Latest result will keep shareholders happy

percy
12-08-2013, 10:34 AM
Another solid year for freightways

Good for the economy when freight keeps getting moved around in ever increasing quantities

Latest result will keep shareholders happy

With so many people buying on line,FRE will have even more orders to deliver.

Jay
12-08-2013, 12:37 PM
With so many people buying on line,FRE will have even more orders to deliver.

One of the main reasons I bought some recently, and it had dipped from its highs, well has dipped a bit since buying as well but it is the long term portfolio

percy
12-08-2013, 02:12 PM
One of the main reasons I bought some recently, and it had dipped from its highs, well has dipped a bit since buying as well but it is the long term portfolio

FRE has been and is still a very well run business.Often it is hard to buy in,as it always appears to be to expensive.So,as you hold,and it is in your long term portfolio,just sit back and enjoy the ride.

winner69
24-09-2013, 08:01 AM
Fund manager selling down not a good sign many say

Fisher sold a lot in may and some more last week ......did they pick the May high and take advantage of it. Chart a bit sad since

percy
24-09-2013, 10:28 AM
Maybe they are right? Maybe they are wrong!
Hard one to call.
Always been a fantastic business.I would not be selling.

Jim
24-09-2013, 08:53 PM
Maybe they are right? Maybe they are wrong!
Hard one to call.
Always been a fantastic business.I would not be selling.

They could be cashed up for the Meridian float.

Stumpynuts
25-09-2013, 09:29 AM
Good to see FRE SP up again after falling to dismal SP range during GFC.

I work within FRE and have talked with my bosses. Yes some of the strategies for FRE is a move towards the internet/online market rather than the usual courier/transport model which is getting more and more expensive due to fuel costs. The strategy towards online based investment would have been noted in previous AGMs and sharemarket reports.

There have been a few key acquisitions over the past few years have been contributing well to profitability.

Key purchases of note are:

Dataprint - http://www.dataprint.co.nz
Iron Mountain - Purchased and now run under Online Security - http://www.onlinesecurity.co.nz/

Both are a push towards online services and both are contributing well to profitability for FRE.

Stumpynuts
09-12-2013, 07:58 PM
Hi all,
As per above post and below

https://www.nzx.com/companies/FRE/announcements/244882

benjitara
28-01-2014, 09:10 PM
I'm finding this business hard to value given the presence of so much goodwill thus making Net assets negative once this is left out. The difficulty is knowing how much of this 'goodwill" is paramount to the future earnings of the company? I never really include goodwill/intangibles in calculations other than in tech stocks/med as this is the only real sector that, in my mind benefits greatly from IP and goodwill.

whitewatergeo
07-02-2014, 06:12 PM
I never really include goodwill/intangibles in calculations other than in tech stocks/med as this is the only real sector that, in my mind benefits greatly from IP and goodwill.

What about companies like Coke, Nike, Microsoft and McDonalds? Surely Goodwill makes up large proportions of their balance sheets and represents such things as brand value and premiums paid during take overs of other businesses?


WWG

winner69
24-02-2014, 06:18 PM
I'm finding this business hard to value given the presence of so much goodwill thus making Net assets negative once this is left out. The difficulty is knowing how much of this 'goodwill" is paramount to the future earnings of the company? I never really include goodwill/intangibles in calculations other than in tech stocks/med as this is the only real sector that, in my mind benefits greatly from IP and goodwill.

Another sold result Benjitara

All those intangibles are working hard driving increasing profits

Approaching that all time high of 495 in jan 2007

benjitara
24-02-2014, 09:07 PM
What about companies like Coke, Nike, Microsoft and McDonalds? Surely Goodwill makes up large proportions of their balance sheets and represents such things as brand value and premiums paid during take overs of other businesses?


WWG

Yes fair comments by winner and yourself. I suppose Freightways scale gives their goodwill evaluations some credibility. a great result. how do you see macro events impacting on this company long-term? more internet purchases must surely look positive. anyway good result, im pleased for them and those that hold the stock.

Toulouse - Luzern
25-02-2014, 10:40 AM
Hi all,

Thanks for all of your posts about FRE.

We can all agree that profit increases are good and upwards sloping charts.

I hold FRE and MFT via investment funds and have been happy for the fund manager to do the analysis, switches, trades, balancing etc.

Thanks in particular to winner69, stumpynuts, benjitara whose ST posts on FRE I can recall.

I find myself agreeing with benjitara initial post that FRE goodwill is high.

Many are averse in general to a high valuation % of goodwill to total assets.

Please note these are my quick observations (E&OE) not a professional evaluation. (DYOR)

Goodwill is the excess of purchase price over fair value of the tangible assets.

In FRE case my read is that Intangible Assets (Goodwill) are 63% at $276M of FRE total assets of $433m.

(Source: 2013 Annual Report.)

The major increase was in 2012 as in the 2010 Annual Report the value was $0.

How much % of assets as goodwill is good, what % is bad - I leave that for you all to decide.

I understand the FRE purchases are strategic and future positioning, and include online internet applications with high potential growth possible.

From the annual returns FRE increase in profit is: 2013 Annual Report $40M compared with $23M in 2010

A lift of $17M.

$17M over $276M = 6%. (Yes, agreed a simplistic view)

I had a look at this sort of thing, as a good few years ago I did an in depth analysis of a US Company following a merger, which resulted in a very high level of Goodwill on the Balance Sheet. I had expected a favourable outcome, however on analysis (in more detail than this post) the merger rationale was strategically flawed from a marketing and financial viewpoint the goodwill paid too high, the impact on profit insufficient and it took years to get over this.

I am not saying there is any issue with FRE balance sheet, growth path or strategy, just that these are my comments that came to mind reading your posts.

Good luck to all of us with FRE.

Stumpynuts
25-02-2014, 03:46 PM
FRE are a good company to work for. They have provided me a guaranteed secure salary over the past 7 years which has been quite a comfort especially given global finances over the past few years.
They also encourage and endorse promotion within the group of companies, provide trainings etc such as graduate cadetships, and they are also approved ATO for certain careers such as accountancy/business/law degrees etc. where they will reimburse you if you can commit and succeed in tertiary studies.

The employee shareplans they have as well are a pretty good incentive IMO.

Jay
26-02-2014, 07:15 AM
That is good to hear Stumpynuts.
Helps to validate my investment, as minor as it maybe, however also invested on the basis of an increase in internet shopping, means more courier deliveries etc etc.
Don't think Amazon's drone thing will take off anytime soon on a global basis

Stumpynuts
26-02-2014, 08:42 AM
That is good to hear Stumpynuts.
Helps to validate my investment, as minor as it maybe, however also invested on the basis of an increase in internet shopping, means more courier deliveries etc etc.
Don't think Amazon's drone thing will take off anytime soon on a global basis

Yes definitely increased online transactions everywhere. Traditional brick & mortar retail stores are a dying breed, they must adapt or die. That is the nature of business.

No use whinging to the 6 o'clock news that consumers are killing your profit margins by purchasing online.

Stumpynuts
09-04-2014, 08:12 PM
Hi all,

Good to see the closing SP today, slowly nudging towards that $5.00 mark.

:t_up:

Stumpynuts
18-08-2014, 11:29 AM
FY results out. Good dividends :t_up:

https://nzx.com/companies/FRE/announcements/253987

macduffy
18-08-2014, 11:54 AM
Yes, a good company, good result. For me, one that got away a few years ago and I never got back in!

:(

Stumpynuts
30-10-2014, 11:27 AM
SP up from this morning's AGM

https://nzx.com/files/attachments/202873.pdf

https://nzx.com/companies/FRE/announcements/256987

Arbroath
30-10-2014, 09:23 PM
SP up from this morning's AGM

https://nzx.com/files/attachments/202873.pdf

https://nzx.com/companies/FRE/announcements/256987

Funny how a stock like this generates so little discussion or excitement. The company just goes about its business increasing performance year on year on year. My initial modelling suggests an uplift to $50-52m the full year which should see a dividend payout of c. 25cps. That is a core hold long term in my book.

Stumpynuts
31-10-2014, 08:22 AM
Funny how a stock like this generates so little discussion or excitement. The company just goes about its business increasing performance year on year on year. My initial modelling suggests an uplift to $50-52m the full year which should see a dividend payout of c. 25cps. That is a core hold long term in my book.

I guess FRE will always in the shadow of Mainfreight. Just like every 1st Five that has stood behind Dan Carter in the pecking order.

pierre
31-10-2014, 02:26 PM
I guess FRE will always in the shadow of Mainfreight. Just like every 1st Five that has stood behind Dan Carter in the pecking order.

Let's hope that FRE doesn't become as prone to injury as Dan is as he gets a bit older.

Anyway, as a foundation shareholder, I've been extremely happy with the results from the company and over the last couple of days have become deliriously so.

Arbroath
01-11-2014, 05:52 AM
I guess FRE will always in the shadow of Mainfreight. Just like every 1st Five that has stood behind Dan Carter in the pecking order.

Fair call but for me in the past 2-3 years FRE is now the better player largely due to the patient and excellent leadership of Dean Bracewell. It is just fantastic to see a decent CEO / leader remain at his post for a decent tenure. None of this 3-4 years and I'm off to something else for Dean. He gets to stay and be the author of the future of FREs performance. There is so much to like about FRe from a quantitative and qualitative perspective that it is my favourite NZX investment. If the market shut for 10 years I'd have no fear about FREs performance.

Stumpynuts
03-11-2014, 10:54 AM
Fair call but for me in the past 2-3 years FRE is now the better player largely due to the patient and excellent leadership of Dean Bracewell. It is just fantastic to see a decent CEO / leader remain at his post for a decent tenure. None of this 3-4 years and I'm off to something else for Dean. He gets to stay and be the author of the future of FREs performance. There is so much to like about FRe from a quantitative and qualitative perspective that it is my favourite NZX investment. If the market shut for 10 years I'd have no fear about FREs performance.


I know Dean Bracewell has been with Freightways for a very long time now. He has basically started from the bottom and worked his way up to executive level, so he is more than a suitable candidate to be at the helm. Actually there are quite a number of people within Freightways who are in the same situation, with some have been here longer than I have been alive!

And the employee shareplans seem to be the carrots dangling in front of our face for some of us (With a healthy profit if chosen to sell those shares)

Arbroath
03-11-2014, 03:58 PM
Well you deserve it Stumpynuts. The company has performed well for a logn time now and employees should share in those rewards IMO.

pierre
23-02-2015, 09:43 AM
Great result for Freightways including a 20% increase in interim divvie. All well anticipated by Mr Market apparently with little SP movement this morning.

Stumpynuts
23-02-2015, 10:34 AM
Great result for Freightways including a 20% increase in interim divvie. All well anticipated by Mr Market apparently with little SP movement this morning.

More money in the bank for me!

pierre
23-02-2015, 02:18 PM
Looks like the freight business is in for good times for a while yet.

From today's NBR online:

"Delivery service provider DHL is set to expand operations to account for a higher volume of imports in New Zealand.

The company is spending $15.3 million on an upgrade of its Auckland facilities and employing up to 20 additional staff.

The latest 2014 quarter four importing figures show imports were up 7.6% on the same period the year before; an increase of $4.6 billion.

The figures show imports to New Zealand in 2014 were valued at $51 billion.

DHL country manager Tim Baxter says the company’s expansion is a result of an “unprecedented” high import levels.

“In the past three years, we’ve seen a massive increase in the rate of growth for imports and exports but certainly imports coming into New Zealand.”

He says as a result of the high demand, DHL will be trebling the size of its Warehouse and increasing its staff numbers.

“[Buying behaviour] is probably online-driven to some degree. It’s related to countries like China, countries developing expertise in product manufacturing.”

BNZ senior economist Craig Ebert says DHL’s expansion to account for increasing import demand reflects an import trend within New Zealand and by and large, “it’s just the sign of a good economy getting on with it.

“Imports tell us most about what’s going on in the domestic economy and they have been picking up; it has really been a sign of good domestic growth.

“This is testament to spending going on in the local economy, not just by businesses but also by consumers as well.”

He says the good news is consumers are mostly spending out of their own additional income, “which is a little bit different to the previous cycles, where [spending] was inflamed by borrowing.” "

macduffy
18-08-2015, 07:28 AM
A good result from FRE, including an increased dividend.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/71126675/nz-post-cuts-to-deliver-gains-for-courier-firm-freightways

winner69
18-08-2015, 07:47 AM
Macduffy, from the man himself

http://www.radionz.co.nz/audio/player/201766877

macduffy
29-10-2015, 02:06 PM
From today's AGM. Expectation of an increased profit.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11536954

macduffy
22-07-2016, 03:56 PM
FRE's shareprice took off today. A little early for an announcement but either it's been a good year or someone's suddenly "discovered" the company!

minimoke
23-07-2016, 09:13 AM
FRE's shareprice took off today. A little early for an announcement but either it's been a good year or someone's suddenly "discovered" the company!
Seriuosly? Are you nuts?. Its up 1 cent or 0.1%

Gizzajob I can do that
23-07-2016, 09:26 AM
Seriuosly? Are you nuts?. Its up 1 cent or 0.1%

A classic case of DYOR, you cant believe everything you read, lol

macduffy
23-07-2016, 10:12 AM
Seriuosly? Are you nuts?. Its up 1 cent or 0.1%

Nuts? Possibly, but FRE sold up to $6.93 yesterday - and just as quickly came back to close at $6.80.

:eek2:

minimoke
23-07-2016, 10:33 AM
Nuts? Possibly, but FRE sold up to $6.93 yesterday - and just as quickly came back to close at $6.80.

:eek2:
But even then it is only moving back towards its late may early June levels. And on low volume.

Snow Leopard
15-08-2016, 12:45 PM
Full year results are out:
https://nzx.com/companies/FRE/announcements/287224

Uninspiring but if you are really bored (or own them) give them a read.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Snow Leopard
15-08-2016, 12:52 PM
Full year results are out:
https://nzx.com/companies/FRE/announcements/287224

Uninspiring but if you are really bored (or own them) give them a read.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Obviously market expected better than:
NPAT up 14%;
Dividend up 16%.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

macduffy
16-08-2016, 08:13 AM
Obviously market expected better than:
NPAT up 14%;
Dividend up 16%.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

The somewhat qualified outlook put a brake on the shareprice. It seems pretty obvious to me that FRE's performance will depend on NZ's economic performance next year and that Dean Bracewell isn't responsible for that!

macduffy
17-08-2016, 01:15 PM
Mr Market has come to his senses and marked FRE up over 3% today.

:cool:

Blendy
27-10-2016, 08:54 AM
Good morning everyone, I'm reporting from the Freightways ASM, starting in a few moments.

Blendy
27-10-2016, 09:11 AM
A very nice inspirational video has played which is a snapshot of positive life at Freightways - this video is shown to all new employees in their induction.

Blendy
27-10-2016, 09:20 AM
All departments showed steady growth.
Efficiencies around new planes for overnight deliveries long term, and also consolidating three Australian offices into one.

Blendy
27-10-2016, 09:24 AM
Express and business mail services provides 70% of Freightways revenue.
The rest is storage and shredding of documents (which are sold to recyclers)

Blendy
27-10-2016, 09:30 AM
New facility being built at Christchurch Airport - efficiencies from this will be realized in FY18

Blendy
27-10-2016, 09:33 AM
Outlook:
Capex $23m. Strong cash flow. Continued growth.
Some activity from ShredX and Mail services were one offs and not expected to be repeated.

Blendy
27-10-2016, 09:35 AM
Question about increase in payments to contractors.

They are given more volume within their delivery runs, adding to their income due to more items carried, but doesn't add to costs (eg other vehicles, more staff etc). It is considered this is a sensible way to continue.

Blendy
27-10-2016, 09:40 AM
Director voting - Peter Kean: ex Lion Nathan. Now a professional director of a variety of Boards. Has studied in the US for improving governance. Has great background and relevant skills.

Blendy
27-10-2016, 09:43 AM
Roger Corcoran retires from the Board after 8 years. He outlines the successes of the acquisitions and also how good the people are who work in the company. He is very passionate about the strength of the management team. Very nice to hear.

Blendy
27-10-2016, 09:46 AM
Mark Verbiest - background in tech/ digital disruption to enhance the business. Supports in acquisitions analysis. Very supportive of the future direction.

Blendy
27-10-2016, 09:49 AM
I'm half expecting someone to point out the lack of gender and ethnic diversity of the Board.

Blendy
27-10-2016, 09:51 AM
Review to directors fees - increase 2.5%. NZSA point out that this is in line with market rates and are happy to support it.

Blendy
27-10-2016, 09:52 AM
No other business or questions! A very quick meeting.

mcdongle
27-10-2016, 09:58 AM
Thank you Blendy

Blendy
27-10-2016, 10:11 AM
It was a very straightforward meeting, slightly boring even in its formality and box ticking to simply get through the agenda. Seems like business as usual is the direction as growth is still happening, and there were no exciting or innovative plans announced. It's a very experienced board of professional directors who are on multiple boards. I'm curious about whether that is good or bad.

At the morning tea there was no mingling of Board/staff with shareholders which I thought was a shame. I like to chat with them afterwards, but it was very much two groups of people (staff vs shareholders). I could have gone up to introduce myself to anyone, but I feel it's a much nicer reflection on the company when they actively seek out shareholder interaction and engagement.

macduffy
27-10-2016, 11:52 AM
Thanks for the reports, Blendy.

I'm happy to hold.

macduffy
27-10-2016, 02:23 PM
From the NZ Herald. FRE first quarter profit up 9.9%

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11736906

Blendy
27-10-2016, 02:49 PM
nice article, summarised the presentation well.

macduffy
14-08-2017, 11:41 AM
Another solid result from FRE, boosted by one-off gains. Aussie business a bit of a drag though.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11903786&ref=rss

Marilyn Munroe
14-08-2017, 01:39 PM
I use their DX Mail. The appeal is next day delivery across town 5 days a week. Far better than Cullen Post who seem to Tiki Tour their mail around the country before delivery every other day.

Boop boop de do
Marilyn

babymonster
01-09-2017, 08:53 PM
ceo is leaving

lissica
01-09-2017, 10:49 PM
ceo is leaving

Yes, and a job well done.

We've held our shares since IPO and it has been a steady investment, IMHO due to the stability of the management team.

Great to see they are promoting from within.