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luckysexice
02-08-2005, 05:20 PM
Anyone know when the PVO FY announcement is due?

duncan macgregor
02-08-2005, 05:29 PM
Was on the 20th of august last year. macdunk

luckysexice
02-08-2005, 05:35 PM
Thank you Duncan would it be to late to buy PVO

Snow Leopard
02-08-2005, 05:42 PM
Yes, the market shuts at 5pm :(

But it will be open tomorrow at 10am :)

luckysexice
02-08-2005, 05:50 PM
PT that not very nice of you

Snow Leopard
02-08-2005, 05:55 PM
Profit range: $7.2m +/-$0.7m ($6.5m - 7.9m)

PE: 15.2 - 12.5

There was an article somewhere (stuff?) today about the slow take up of the new EMV terminals.

Snow Leopard
02-08-2005, 05:57 PM
quote:Originally posted by luckysexice

PT that not very nice of you

Well! you asked the question. :D

sekrub
02-08-2005, 06:35 PM
Here's what one commentator has to say ( from www.shares.net.nz )

PVO
24 August 2005
FY


Forecast $7.2m PVO is being rerated upward as consistency of results occurs. Transtech and Javelin acquisitions will start to contribute, but will synergy benefits accrue? EMV compliant terminals will assist results through to 2008. Currently trading on forecast pe 13.8 so probably need to be ahead of $7.2m forecast. Chart action positive.

Lizard
24-08-2005, 01:29 PM
Came in better than forecast at $8.5m, but there's a $1.3m tax credit in there. NPBT (and abnormals) of $7.6m.

At 3 cps, dividend yield is good for a company in "growth" mode. However, given the timeframe for EMV rollout only goes to 2008, I think analysts have seen it as a temporary profit situation.

The presentation makes for interesting reading though. Sticking their fingers into a number of growing pies including RFID and VOIP, which could provide momentum well beyond the EMV roll-out.

leanmeanfightingmachine
24-08-2005, 03:13 PM
i brought into this share at 32c, 42c, 60c, 75c, 80c, and yesterday at 98c.

i got to hang in for the dividend. but does anyone think there is much left in this stock. I don't think they will let themselve go backwards after emv is over in 2008. so they should have enough time to create xtra revenue earning ideas and businesses.

thoughts anyone?

LMFM




quote:Originally posted by Lizard

Came in better than forecast at $8.5m, but there's a $1.3m tax credit in there. NPBT (and abnormals) of $7.6m.

At 3 cps, dividend yield is good for a company in "growth" mode. However, given the timeframe for EMV rollout only goes to 2008, I think analysts have seen it as a temporary profit situation.

The presentation makes for interesting reading though. Sticking their fingers into a number of growing pies including RFID and VOIP, which could provide momentum well beyond the EMV roll-out.

Mr Murphy
24-08-2005, 07:08 PM
Final cut off for EMV compliance world wide is 2010, NZ is 2008 and each country has placed different targets on banks and retailers. The answer to your questions is yes they have been working hard on the after EMV compliance situation. There is nothing in concrete yet but they have looked at some big OEM manufacturers in the oil industry as one example. They will also have a large client base who currently use their hardware & software so this will bring recurring revenues from support, replacement etc and then will stand them in good stead for the full replacement in 5-7 years time.

Remeber EMV is just an opportunity, the replacement of terminals will continue after this date.

I believe they have the structure and business established to go past $1.

Discl: hold none

Cheers
Murph

prosperity
24-08-2005, 07:57 PM
What does the supplementary dividend of .53 cents mean in there announcement at 13.50 pm.

Lizard
24-08-2005, 08:50 PM
Technology will be the driver for another wave of replacements beyond EMV. Contactless payment systems - the "e-purse" (perhaps embedded in your mobile phone), biometric ID and higher levels of encryption are all coming. How Provenco will take a stake in these is yet to be seen, but they are well placed within NZ to be a major player.

Mr Murphy
24-08-2005, 09:25 PM
The e-purse has been out for a long long time, unless PVO acquires a company with this technology I can't see them getting into this field. The contactless payment solutions have also been out for quite a while and there is a NZ company that has developed this for mobiles with pepsi or coke in Singapore.

If PVO sticks to what they are good at they will continue to grow past 2010.

Murph

Snow Leopard
25-08-2005, 03:47 PM
Management being bullish about next years result [:p]
AND answering prosperity's question. :)

quote:
PVO
25/08/2005
FORECAST

REL: 1611 HRS Provenco Group Limited

FORECAST: PVO: Provenco Annual Results Q&A

PROVENCO ANNUAL RESULTS Q&A

Provenco Group Limited (NZX:PVO) is very pleased with the favourable feedback
from key stakeholders on its annual results announced yesterday, and wishes
to expand on some matters in response.

Dividend
Provenco Group Limited is providing overseas resident shareholders a
supplementary dividend of 0.53 cents per share, which is equivalent to a
non-resident withholding tax reduction. This ensures that overseas resident
shareholders receive the equivalent of a three cent per share fully imputed
dividend in the hand.

This approach is common practice among listed New Zealand companies that have
overseas resident shareholders.

This is the first dividend that the group has paid since 1997 and signals the
confidence the board and management has in the sustainability of the group
results going forward.

International Business Win

Provenco Group Limited can confirm that it recently won a contract in Kuwait.
This is Provenco Group's first contract win in the Middle East and while it
was a relatively small contract, it represents a beach head for the company
as it provides an entr?to larger opportunities in the Middle East.

EMV-compliance

The drive towards EMV-compliance in New Zealand during the next few years is
positive for Provenco. However, the adoption of EMV among New Zealand
businesses will create additional opportunities for Provenco that will run
well beyond this.

In addition, the international roll-out of EMV presents further opportunities
for Provenco over a number of years.

Outlook

At this early stage of the year, the directors anticipate that the group
operating profit will exceed $9 million for the 2006 year. This compares to
an operating profit of $7.6 million for the 2005 year.
End CA:00119744 For:PVO Type:FORECAST Time:2005-08-25:16:12:00

Mr Murphy
07-09-2005, 09:34 PM
Anyone know if you can get the PVO divi in shares as opposed to cash, ie do they have a reinvestment plan?

Cheers
Murph

Snow Leopard
13-09-2005, 04:37 PM
Looks like someone dumped a couple of hundred thousand shares at the end of the day.
Not a good close.

Lizard
13-09-2005, 06:18 PM
Thanks PT. I am less bullish on PVO than I was. Fence sitting actually. The "next generation" smartcard platforms may be close to commercialisation and I have no idea whether PVO will benefit or suffer as a result...

Farouk
28-09-2005, 12:19 PM
Well it has hit $1.00 today, it is looking pretty good for a it more of an upswing from what I have been reading

leanmeanfightingmachine
02-02-2006, 09:02 AM
does anyone no if provenco has mentioned that it will pay a half year divi?

And if so what would it be?

LMFM

Snow Leopard
02-02-2006, 09:10 AM
quote:Originally posted by leanmeanfightingmachine

does anyone no if provenco has mentioned that it will pay a half year divi?

And if so what would it be?

LMFM

1) yes, chairman said so at AGM.
2) no idea, 1 to 1.5c fully imputed, if you want a complete guess.

leanmeanfightingmachine
14-02-2006, 10:18 AM
I see that PVO is starting to creap up a touch this week.

175K woth shares brought friday off a few weeks of light trading.

Will be interesting tomorrow with announcement.

LMFM

Tok3n
14-02-2006, 05:39 PM
CTL and PVO have been quiet lately

hopefully they're making good progress on overseas contracts

Contrarian
15-02-2006, 09:32 AM
PVO
15/02/2006
HALFYR

REL: 1027 HRS Provenco Group Limited

HALFYR: PVO: Provenco Group Announcement Half Year Dec05

MARKET RELEASE 15 February 2006

Provenco achieves strong and consistent growth

Provenco Group Limited (NZX: PVO), supplier of smart technology for business,
today reported strong growth in its operating revenue and profit for the six
months ended 31 December 2005 and a fully imputed interim dividend of 1.3
cents per share.
Operating revenue for the period, when compared to the six months ending 31
December 2004, was up 46% to $78.9 million.
This is the fifth consecutive period where Provenco has achieved an increase
in operating EBITDA (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and
amortisation). Growth was delivered across all of Provenco's business
divisions.

Summary of unaudited results for the six months ended 31 December 2005
Six months ended 31 December 2004 ($millions) Six months ended 30
June 2005 ($millions) Six months ended 31 December 2005 ($millions)
Total operating revenue 54.1 61.4 78.9

EBITDA 6.7 7.2 8.1

Operating profit before taxation and unusual items
4.2 3.4 4.9
Taxation* (0.6) 1.9 (1.8)
Unusual items (0.1) (0.3) (0.4)
Net surplus attributable to shareholders*
3.5 5.0 2.7
*The latest result reflects the company moving to a full tax charge.

Financial performance
Chairman David Wolfenden says the company's continuing strong performance can
be linked to its solid reputation, both in New Zealand and overseas, as a
provider of innovative technology for a wide-range of business customers.

"Internationally, Provenco is increasingly recognised as a provider of world
leading retail forecourt solutions for the oil industry."

"In New Zealand, Provenco is the market leader in payment and retail
technology and has experienced significant growth over the last six months."

Continuing growth in the international retail oil sector, and a strengthening
foothold in Australasian markets, have contributed to an operating profit
(after goodwill amortisation and before taxation and unusual items) of $4.9
million, up 18.4% on the same period last year.

The net surplus attributable to shareholders for the period is $2.7 million.
This result reflects a full tax charge when compared to earlier periods. The
unusual items of $0.4 million relates mainly to the settlement and litigation
costs of the Securities Commission claim.

Positive operating cash flows of more than $2.0 million was recorded for the
six month period.

Dividend

Mr Wolfenden says he was pleased to announce a fully-imputed interim dividend
of 1.3 cents per share for shareholders (representing 1.95 cents per share
gross). The dividend, which uses accumulated imputation credits, will be paid
on 28 April 2006. The record date for the dividend will be 12 April 2006.

The declaration of a dividend follows the company's announcement that it
intends to pay shareholders two dividends a year. The announcement signals
the confidence the board and management have in the future performance of the
group.

Capital notes rollover

Mr Wolfenden also advised that Provenco capital note holders (NZX:PVO010) on
the register on 17 February 2006 would be notified shortly that the company
will offer new conditions, comprising an interest rate of 9.25% per annum for
the three years commencing 15 April 2006, with interest payable quarterly on
15 July, 15 October, 15 January and 15 April until 15 April 2009 (the next
election date).

He also advised that to the extent that note holders choose not to accept the
new conditions by Friday 17 March 2006 (or such later date the company may
allow), the company will not allow a conversion to shares and the relevant
notes will be purchased by the company, or one of its subsidiaries, on 15
April 20

roaddog
15-02-2006, 04:20 PM
Hi Dudes
roaddog is waiting for this to trade at $1 again.The announcement signals the confidence the board and management have in the future performance of the group.



1-Week Range (Low-High): 85 - 88
4-Week Range: 84 - 89
26-Week Range: 78 - 101
52-Week Range: 71 - 101



www.provenco.com

leanmeanfightingmachine
16-02-2006, 09:16 AM
yea looks pretty good for the next 2 yrs. These guys are timing thier run. Aiming for a big 2yrs, they sorted there **** out and are ready to make the big nove. Contracts will be the next big aanouncement to come. Looks like i am holding on to my shares, thought about pulling out in the ninties but will hang in.

They seam very confident in there announcement yesterday.

Any thoughts from PVO holders.

LMFM

Tok3n
16-02-2006, 06:07 PM
Just hope the directors don't do anymore insider trading in the future >< (or at least don't get ping for it)

Hopefully a good annoucement from CTL too (isn't it due?)

Snow Leopard
17-02-2006, 08:20 PM
quote:Originally posted by roaddog

Hi Dudes
roaddog is waiting for this to trade at $1 again.The announcement signals the confidence the board and management have in the future performance of the group.



1-Week Range (Low-High): 85 - 88
4-Week Range: 84 - 89
26-Week Range: 78 - 101
52-Week Range: 71 - 101



www.provenco.com

A dissappointing market response.
I think we are going to have to be patient, dude.
Us cats are naturals at that, but you dogs seem to like running around for some reason.

Honesty bit: have some, but actually wondering whether I should have sold them earlier this week. Will see how it goes.

Snow Leopard
02-03-2006, 11:56 AM
What is this doing at 79c?

With a forecast operating profit (after goodwill but before unusuals and tax) of more than 9m you I would assume that an NPATA of 8m is not out of court.
It's a bargin.

Or does someone know something I don't?

rotsevni
02-03-2006, 02:34 PM
What's with the 2 million shares traded today (off market I presume... end of tax year repositioning perhaps?)


quote:Originally posted by Paper Tiger

What is this doing at 79c?

With a forecast operating profit (after goodwill but before unusuals and tax) of more than 9m you I would assume that an NPATA of 8m is not out of court.
It's a bargin.

Or does someone know something I don't?

Lizard
05-03-2006, 01:32 PM
quote:Originally posted by Paper Tiger

What is this doing at 79c?

With a forecast operating profit (after goodwill but before unusuals and tax) of more than 9m you I would assume that an NPATA of 8m is not out of court.
It's a bargin.

Or does someone know something I don't?


PT, I've just been having a look at this - why do you suggest NPAT of $8m? Surely off the figure of $9m before tax, plus first half unusual items, it would be more like $5.4m? (or does the last "A" in NPATA mean excluding amortisation of goodwill?). Forward P/E of 15.9 at current price of 82cps.

My conservative DCF gives a value of 85cps on the basis that there should be a climb in profits till 2008 on the back of EMV compliance, with some temporary fall-back after that. It also looks as though the final dividend is more likely to be around 1.7cps, to give the same total as last year of 3cps - another final 3cps dividend seems unlikely anyway, so yield of 5.5% gross, which is not especially stunning.

Overall, it doesn't look exceptionally undervalued. However, I'd be fairly confident of seeing the sp hit $1 again within 12 months. Would think it would be worth watching this one around July, when the market will is likely to start thinking about prospects for FY07.

leanmeanfightingmachine
06-03-2006, 02:02 PM
A big contract could throw your figures out the door. I know they have been gearing for the situation with extra staff.

Your figures though make good sense.

But you got to buy for the future and they are a bargin at this price.

If they go to 90c it could be a good trade, news will do that.

LMFM



quote:Originally posted by Lizard


quote:Originally posted by Paper Tiger

What is this doing at 79c?

With a forecast operating profit (after goodwill but before unusuals and tax) of more than 9m you I would assume that an NPATA of 8m is not out of court.
It's a bargin.

Or does someone know something I don't?


PT, I've just been having a look at this - why do you suggest NPAT of $8m? Surely off the figure of $9m before tax, plus first half unusual items, it would be more like $5.4m? (or does the last "A" in NPATA mean excluding amortisation of goodwill?). Forward P/E of 15.9 at current price of 82cps.

My conservative DCF gives a value of 85cps on the basis that there should be a climb in profits till 2008 on the back of EMV compliance, with some temporary fall-back after that. It also looks as though the final dividend is more likely to be around 1.7cps, to give the same total as last year of 3cps - another final 3cps dividend seems unlikely anyway, so yield of 5.5% gross, which is not especially stunning.

Overall, it doesn't look exceptionally undervalued. However, I'd be fairly confident of seeing the sp hit $1 again within 12 months. Would think it would be worth watching this one around July, when the market will is likely to start thinking about prospects for FY07.

Gryffyn
06-03-2006, 02:12 PM
They've had a lot of job ads in Computerworld for a few weeks now.

Snow Leopard
06-03-2006, 04:53 PM
Lizard: NPATA = NPAT + Amortisation.
i.e. Your $5.4m + $2.5m of A.

I would expect that the year end divvy would be around 1.7c

regards

Lizard
06-03-2006, 05:19 PM
Thanks PT. Same ballpark then.

I vacillate a little in my treatment of goodwill - but my observation is that the share price will be more influenced by bottom-line NPAT and P/E in the short term - especially on shares that don't get alot of attention from professional analysts. FCF comes in handy for determining likely growth rates, yield and capital requirements though, and those seem to be the other fundamental influences on sentiment.

It continues to amaze me how much share prices can weaken because a company moves into a full tax-paying situation and therefore recorded NPAT falls, despite underlying increases in revenue and NPBT.

Tok3n
06-03-2006, 07:34 PM
quote:Originally posted by Gryffyn

They've had a lot of job ads in Computerworld for a few weeks now.


I hope they're new jobs and not replacements ones :)

StainlessSteelRat
07-03-2006, 12:34 PM
quote:Originally posted by Gryffyn

They've had a lot of job ads in Computerworld for a few weeks now.


Approximately 21 staff, with a mix of BA's and PM's - which indicates they are in growth mode. This is a double-edged sword. If they find the staff in this tight labour market, then it could help them expand. If they don't, then growth could be hindered. I would be watching to see how long it takes them to fill the positions before jumping in.

Snow Leopard
07-03-2006, 04:57 PM
You can call me foolish, [:0]
You can call me mis-guided, [B)]
You can even call me Paper Tiger. :D

I bought some [more] PVO today, and I think you should all go and do likewise tomorrow. ;)

It is my opinion that there is a few cents to be made on this medium to long term and hopefully short term as well. ;);)

Snow Leopard
13-03-2006, 07:17 PM
Well so far so good, even if the market is basically on the way up.

ABN AMRO seem to be the only brokers to follow this stock and reckon earnings per share of 9cents for this FY (NPATA I presume, P/E=9.2 at 83cents) having recently downgraded their estimate. To be honest I am not so optimistic and am sticking to 8cents (P/E=10.4)
Looking to 2007 ABN reckon 12% growth to 10.1cps. But don't let that put you off.

Provenco have their finger in more pies than EFTPOS and the EMV rollout, and I feel that there is more upside than downside to this share.
I don't see it as the next Mainfreight but it has potential.
Have a look, crunch some numbers, make your own decision.

pimpit
13-03-2006, 08:53 PM
looks like the jobs they have advertised are related to both product development and testing.

so either they are taking up a new development project or they have a product almost ready for market that needs testing...

Snow Leopard
14-03-2006, 09:55 AM
Good to see you all have taken my advice and made your own decisions.
Keep it up [:p]

regards
Paper Tiger

PLK
31-03-2006, 11:45 AM
anyone has any idea with the impact on the full year NPAT of recent fall NZD?

it should be positive right
consider it has alot of selling overseas
but who can explain the recent fall of share price.....
thx

Lizard
31-03-2006, 12:09 PM
How many of the components are imported?

Have been wondering about this myself.

Tok3n
16-04-2006, 11:21 AM
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/search/story.cfm?storyid=00016F25-A78D-143D-9B2683027AF1031B

wonder if this is going to be their specialization

article in the NZ herald (print) said they make their software sales in US dollars..which is all good.

pimpit
16-04-2006, 09:11 PM
I would not touch this...

Lizard
28-04-2006, 03:40 PM
Looked close to starting a move back up today... needs a chartist to comment...

limegreen
28-04-2006, 03:47 PM
It's not too convincing. I note in the OBV (not shown) that there was a biggish sell recently. I don't follow PVO much anymore, but that's not a very healthy sign. It has also really struggled with the $1 figure...

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v361/limegreenz/pvo28april06.gif

Lizard
02-05-2006, 03:26 PM
Bought back in again anyway. Had to pay 86cps yesterday.

leanmeanfightingmachine
02-05-2006, 04:29 PM
i got alot of these. good to see them moving, they way undersold at 79c- bit of a joke really.

I got another batch at 80c.

LMFM



quote:Originally posted by Lizard

Bought back in again anyway. Had to pay 86cps yesterday.

xpress
02-05-2006, 04:54 PM
I notice that the Aussie Govt are going to smart cards for all of their services. While it is probably too big a contract for PVO, the trend towards smart cards seems to be accelerating

Silverbak
03-05-2006, 03:33 PM
Lots of action with PVO over the last few days. No real news coming out, but looks like a short technical breakout going on. Any thoughts out there on the interest thats happening?

Lizard
03-05-2006, 03:45 PM
Has occurred to me that the action got going around the time that ASX listed IHG mentioned in their quarterly that they were in discussions with two parties on acquisition/merger/collaboration possibilities. Both POS companies. Have no idea if they are a good fit technologically, but their finances are borderline. Might be completely irrelevant to this price action, but just an observation. It seems GPG have a slice of IHG.

leanmeanfightingmachine
05-05-2006, 12:25 PM
Still good support around 90 cents.

I think something might be on the horizon with this stock.

With a lower dollar i think some good results might be on the cards.

LMFM





quote:Originally posted by Lizard

Has occurred to me that the action got going around the time that ASX listed IHG mentioned in their quarterly that they were in discussions with two parties on acquisition/merger/collaboration possibilities. Both POS companies. Have no idea if they are a good fit technologically, but their finances are borderline. Might be completely irrelevant to this price action, but just an observation. It seems GPG have a slice of IHG.

Snow Leopard
16-05-2006, 02:41 PM
Nice to see this holding it own around the 90c mark, especially in this nervous market.
I still think that it is a little undervalued at this price and is one of the better buys in the market at the present in a defensive sense.

I also note that there was a share price enquiry recently and PVO's reply contained the following:
"We do note that in recent weeks Provenco has received favourable recommendations from a number of analysts."

Phaedrus
16-05-2006, 04:49 PM
PVO broke out of its 4 month trading range about 2 weeks ago. In theory, the previous resistance level(s) should then have become support. So far, this all seems to be unfolding exactly as per the textbook.

http://h1.ripway.com/Phaedrus/PVO516001.gif

Contrarian
17-05-2006, 09:07 AM
FORECAST: PVO: PROVENCO ISSUES PROFIT DOWNGRADE GUIDANCE 09:42am
PVO
17/05/2006
FORECAST

REL: 0942 HRS Provenco Group Limited

FORECAST: PVO: PROVENCO ISSUES PROFIT DOWNGRADE GUIDANCE

17 May 2006

PROVENCO ISSUES PROFIT DOWNGRADE GUIDANCE

Provenco Group Limited (NZX:PVO) has advised that it has downgraded its
profit guidance for the year ending 30 June from $9.0 million to between $7.0
and $7.3 million after goodwill amortisation and before unusual items and
taxation. The company attributes this downgrade to developments in both the
domestic and international markets that have just become apparent following
management's regular review of the business.

Provenco Payments, a provider of EFTPOS technologies to the New Zealand
market and representing approximately 20% of the group's revenue, having
achieved a strong result in the first half is experiencing a larger decline
in revenue for EMV-compliance work, than was expected. Provenco now
anticipates lower levels of activity in this area until the 2007 calendar
year.

"We remain the market leader and are working closely with retailers and banks
to ensure payment terminals are upgraded as required before the next
compliance deadline of 31 December 2007," said David Wolfenden, Chairman of
Provenco.

Provenco Retail Automation, a global supplier of technology solutions to the
retail oil industry has experienced some timing movements with offshore
contracts, which has resulted in a shortfall in expected earnings for the
current financial year. These earnings will now occur in the next financial
year.

"There has been no loss of revenue or associated earnings with these
contracts, but the movement in the timing are in many situations, controlled
by our customers," said David Wolfenden.

"The international opportunities for the retail automation business continue
to grow and Provenco remains a market leader for pay@pump and forecourt
automation solutions for the retail oil industry. We are actively exploring
an increasing number of opportunities in many markets and we have two
significant contracts under negotiation. We will continue to keep the market
informed."

"The Directors remain positive about the medium and long term prospects for
the group. It is pleasing that our most recent acquisitions in Australia,
Vantex technology distribution, have performed well and to expectations. It
is important to note that, as previously stated, lumpy earnings are a feature
of key parts of Provenco's business," said David Wolfenden.

Ends
End CA:00131374 For:PVO Type:FORECAST Time:2006-05-17:09:42:50

TheBossMan
17-05-2006, 09:16 AM
"We are actively exploring
an increasing number of opportunities in many markets"...

Is this wise? Does the firm have the sales, marketing, and support infrastructure to pursue such a strategy? Perhaps, a slower and focussed approach in just one or two markets would provide an organic growth.
I seriously hope PVO is not throwing darts at all developing countries.

Disc: Hold none.

Lizard
17-05-2006, 09:27 AM
quote:Originally posted by Phaedrus

PVO broke out of its 4 month trading range about 2 weeks ago. In theory, the previous resistance level(s) should then have become support. So far, this all seems to be unfolding exactly as per the textbook.



Just threw the textbook out the window :(

Ted2
17-05-2006, 09:57 AM
Buying opportunity !!!!

:D:D:D

Snow Leopard
17-05-2006, 10:16 AM
Wondefully ironic that the day after yours truely says that it is a good defensive share (of course I was speaking FA) and that the king of TA told us it was a classic text book buy that we should have this little announcement to disturb the share price.
I am sure that the TA textbook has a section on the price action that will unfold over the next few months, whatever it may be. ;)

Meanwhile after a little consideration I believe this announcment really does not warrant the reaction. (trans: buy [:p])
With the Retail Automation payments slipping then their is a cost associated with revenue being received later, but has the ann says this years loss is next years gain.
The EFTPOS side of things is a little puzzling, are we going to see a late rush from retailers in a year or so?

Putting a fair value on a share is a very subjective experience and in the circumstances I have downgraded this a couple of cents to 91c.
I will also go for a revised EPS of 7cps this year, and still expect a divvy of 1.7cps.

Let us see how right or wrong I am come August ;)
Disc: I have put some money where my post is this morning.

leanmeanfightingmachine
17-05-2006, 10:26 AM
totally agree. 74c is a bargin. They made the announcement to cover there own ass.

There is more to this. These guys are needing to reinforce there postion that came out with inside trading earlier in the year and a recent enquiry.

Hardcase. 9mil to 7.3 is not big drop. It's always been like this.

LMFM





quote:Originally posted by Paper Tiger

Wondefully ironic that the day after yours truely says that it is a good defensive share (of course I was speaking FA) and that the king of TA told us it was a classic text book buy that we should have this little announcement to disturb the share price.
I am sure that the TA textbook has a section on the price action that will unfold over the next few months, whatever it may be. ;)

Meanwhile after a little consideration I believe this announcment really does not warrant the reaction. (trans: buy [:p])
With the Retail Automation payments slipping then their is a cost associated with revenue being received later, but has the ann says this years loss is next years gain.
The EFTPOS side of things is a little puzzling, are we going to see a late rush from retailers in a year or so?

Putting a fair value on a share is a very subjective experience and in the circumstances I have downgraded this a couple of cents to 91c.
I will also go for a revised EPS of 7cps this year, and still expect a divvy of 1.7cps.

Let us see how right or wrong I am come August ;)
Disc: I have put some money where my post is this morning.

Westie
17-05-2006, 10:49 AM
yep, used to own, got out at 90+ cents a year ago, now looking to jump back in

Phaedrus
17-05-2006, 12:12 PM
What exquisite timing! Fortunately, it is quite rare for breakouts to fail so spectacularly.
I guess TA depends on there being at least some insider trading to enable it to "get wind" of future weakness. It gets blind-sided (along with everyone else) when there is none as in this case.

Theoretically, we should now expect some resistance at 78 cents and support at 71 cents.

Westie
17-05-2006, 01:25 PM
quote:I guess TA depends on there being at least some insider trading to enable it to "get wind" of future weakness. It gets blind-sided (along with everyone else) when there is none as in this case.

If you can reveal to me a 100% foolproof method of buying & selling i promise i'll be your best mate. :)

Mr_Market
18-05-2006, 08:07 PM
FYI. Interesting things have been happening in the terminal businees this year. EFTPOS NZ (owned by ANZ-National) have been very agressive with their pricing. No one is making money off terminals now, they will be virtually giving them away by the end of the year. The real money is in gaining the acquiring from merchants.

I suspect that this is part of the reason for the earnings downgrade.

winner69
18-05-2006, 08:13 PM
quote:Originally posted by Mr_Market

FYI. Interesting things have been happening in the terminal businees this year. EFTPOS NZ (owned by ANZ-National) have been very agressive with their pricing. No one is making money off terminals now, they will be virtually giving them away by the end of the year. The real money is in gaining the acquiring from merchants.

I suspect that this is part of the reason for the earnings downgrade.


... so a long term thing then mr_market ... meaning not good for PVO?

Mr_Market
18-05-2006, 08:26 PM
Winner.. on the terminal side they are up against a company with the backing of the ANZ-National bank. They really want market share, and it looks like they are prepared to take a loss on the terminals to get it. Having said that terminals is only 20% of PVO business.

Footsie
18-05-2006, 08:32 PM
Golden rule, always avoid companies that issue profit warnings as they are generally followed by another one !



DISC: dont own, but nearly bought about 2 weeks ago, decided against it as i thought the growth wasn't there anymore. at least not in the foreseeable future.

Flying Goat
19-05-2006, 05:52 PM
quote:Originally posted by Footsie

Golden rule, always avoid companies that issue profit warnings as they are generally followed by another one !



DISC: dont own, but nearly bought about 2 weeks ago, decided against it as i thought the growth wasn't there anymore. at least not in the foreseeable future.


Have to disagree with that. Firstly, in the recent past (last three years) these guys have consistently achieved profits above and beyond those that they forecast - meaning they have forecast conservatively. Secondly, the main factor for the down grade was a timing issue meaning that revenues for offshore projects will not be realised this financial year, rather they will accrue to the 2007 financial year.

They are market leaders in Australasia and have completed projects to date on time and on budget, which is a rarity in the implementation of new technology hardware / software systems. This, imho will lead to further contracts internationally and the profit down grade yesterday was a blessing in disguise, as the stock was sold down so far it made for good buying when considering from both nta and eps view.

Disc: Bought a few a little while ago when they dipped to 80 cents...

Cheers

Goat

Snow Leopard
24-05-2006, 11:50 AM
and now for some good news [:p]


quote:First European contract signed (http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=PVO&E=NZSE&N=131717)

PVO
24/05/2006
GENERAL

REL: 1205 HRS Provenco Group Limited

GENERAL: PVO: First European contract signed

Provenco continues global expansion with first European contract signed

Provenco to supply technology to Belgian Shell NV/SA retail petrol stations

Listed technology company Provenco has signed its first deal in Europe, by
supplying its payments technology to more than 200 Belgian Shell NV/SA retail
petrol stations in Belgium.

The contract is valued at approximately $NZ 3.5 million and is for the
design, development and delivery of an electronic payments system and outdoor
payment capability for its retail petrol stations.

Provenco will provide site system architecture and integration expertise
along with payments technology to deliver a cost-effective solution that
meets the customer's needs.

Provenco's chief executive officer David Ritchie described the deal as a
significant step forward in Provenco's international growth strategy.

"The deal with Belgian Shell NV/SA represents an exciting step forward into
the European market. Our relationship with Shell is a long one, and we intend
to continue it with timely and quality delivery to meet Shell's needs."

"Our work with Shell in Asia and now in Europe shows that Provenco is a truly
global business and able to assist its customers across different countries,
cultures and time zones."

Minister of Trade, Hon. Phil Goff, said the deal was an exciting milestone
for Provenco.

"This is an excellent example of a New Zealand company competing
internationally and confirms the government's commitment to ensuring New
Zealand-based businesses can effectively operate in the global market."

Mr Ritchie said Provenco's increasingly diverse range of global customers
shows the company is large enough to deliver complex projects that span
different environments but small and dynamic enough to meet demanding and
highly technical project requirements.

"For this project, Provenco has partnered with local experts to ensure
Provenco meets the elements of the project that are specific to the local
market."

The latest deal is a further development in the relationship between Shell
and Provenco.

Provenco signed a major contract with Shell in late 2004 to supply outdoor
payment terminals to their outlets in the Asia Pacific.

The 2004 Shell contract in Asia Pacific helped open doors for Provenco in
other international markets including the United States, the Middle East,
India and China.

Mr Ritchie said the Belgian Shell NV/SA contract was a further endorsement of
Provenco's proven expertise in site system architecture and fuel systems and
indicated its potential in Europe.

"Provenco is well-placed to continue its successful work in a range of
international markets including Europe. Success in the European market is
critical to Provenco's global growth strategy and our relationship with Shell
and in particular the deal with Belgian Shell NV/SA serves as an excellent
starting point."

Ends
End CA:00131717 For:PVO Type:GENERAL Time:2006-05-24:12:05:06

Westie
24-05-2006, 12:41 PM
Those pvo shares i picked up at 74c after my last post are looking a little healthier. They did say they had some contracts close to finaling.


quote:Theoretically, we should now expect some resistance at 78 cents and support at 71 cents.


Looks like the resistance at 78c didn't last either Phaedrus, not that that's your fault. How is the chart looking now? resistance at 85c? or 87c?

Phaedrus
26-05-2006, 09:08 AM
Westie, PVO is very much event driven at the moment with the SP bouncing around wildly in reaction to good or bad news. The market is understandably confused and uncertain. TA is of little or no use under such circumstances - especially so with lightly traded stocks like this. The best thing to do is wait for the dust to settle.

leanmeanfightingmachine
26-05-2006, 09:30 AM
Yep totally agree with this comment.

I would like to stress my earlier point: That PVO is demonstrating to the market it's "lumpy" theory, so they can stay out of the crap. Cagey bunch...alright.

Straight after their profit drop they hit us with a new contract in the worlds most far away market.

HHHmmm interesting isn't it.

Leanmeanfightingmachine




quote:Originally posted by Phaedrus

Westie, PVO is very much event driven at the moment with the SP bouncing around wildly in reaction to good or bad news. The market is understandably confused and uncertain. TA is of little or no use under such circumstances - especially so with lightly traded stocks like this. The best thing to do is wait for the dust to settle.

Snow Leopard
26-05-2006, 09:43 AM
quote:Originally posted by Phaedrus

Westie, PVO is very much event driven at the moment with the SP bouncing around wildly in reaction to good or bad news. The market is understandably confused and uncertain. TA is of little or no use under such circumstances - especially so with lightly traded stocks like this. The best thing to do is wait for the dust to settle.

I am deeply shocked by this admission. [:0]
My faith in TA is in tatters. [:0]
My trading schemes are now worthless. [:0]
My sarcasm is in top form. :)

Westie
26-05-2006, 09:54 AM
quote:My sarcasm is in top form

& I am deeply shocked by your out of character sarcasm [:0]

Snow Leopard
31-05-2006, 08:54 AM
and now for some more good news :):)


quote:

Three-year contract with Malaysia's largest oil company (http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=PVO&E=NZSE&N=132032)

PVO
31/05/2006
GENERAL

REL: 0926 HRS Provenco Group Limited

GENERAL: PVO: Three-year contract with Malaysia's largest oil company

Provenco signs three-year contract with Malaysia's largest oil company

Listed technology company Provenco has signed a three-year technology supply
contract with a subsidiary of Malaysia's national oil company.

The contract, for supply and implementation of outdoor payment capability for
additional petrol stations worth more than NZ$17m, follows the success of
Provenco's implementation of EMV-compliant payment systems across 500 petrol
stations during 2004, and the supply and implementation for a further 100
stations during 2005 and 2006.

Provenco chief executive David Ritchie described the deal as further
reinforcement of Provenco's reputation as a significant player in the
international retail automation market.

Mr Ritchie said the contract would return consistent revenue to Provenco,
with maintenance revenues in addition.

"This is consistent with Provenco's global growth strategy of developing
partnerships with customers in the true sense - where Provenco will supply,
maintain and upgrade customers' technology where required."

Provenco has continued to enhance its reputation as a provider of
world-leading retail forecourt solutions for the oil industry with a series
of entries into new markets including India, Kuwait, Hong Kong and Europe.

"Asia provided us with a strong foundation which we have successfully built
on over the past few years," Mr Ritchie said.

In April, Provenco announced its move into India, by supplying forecourt
technology to Mumbai-based refining and distribution company Bharat Petroleum
Corporation (BPCL), and more recently announced the move into Europe by
supplying an electronic payments system and outdoor payment capability for
Shell retail petrol stations in Belgium.

Ends

For further information:
David Ritchie, chief executive officer, Provenco. Phone +64 (0) 21 220 9560
or
Gabrielle Domett, marketing communications manager, Provenco.
Phone +64 (0) 21 574 154

About Provenco
Provenco Group Limited is a New Zealand-founded technology company operating
globally with customers in over 25 countries. Listed on the New Zealand stock
exchange (NZX: PVO), the company has a number of international offices
including those in Beijing, Kuala Lumpur, Melbourne and Sydney.

After more than 30 years on the technology scene, Provenco has evolved into a
sound and diverse company. With a heritage in Eftpos and payment solutions,
Provenco's business now extends across a range of technology applications for
the retail environment.

The company's growing diversity is reflected in each of the key areas of its
operations today - providing forecourt solutions for the international retail
oil industry; payment technology and Eftpos in the domestic New Zealand
market; and retail technology including mobile and wireless technology for
the Australasian market.

Provenco's tailored solutions for retail business environments use a
combination of internally-developed software and hardware, as well as top
international brands.

For more information, visit www.provenco.com
End CA:00132032 For:PVO Type:GENERAL Time:2006-05-31:09:26:30

leanmeanfightingmachine
31-05-2006, 05:33 PM
Looks like it will be a big 2007!!!!

$1 here we come, it will take a few days to kick in. 1.20 within 3 mnths.


LMFM



quote:Originally posted by Paper Tiger

and now for some more good news :):)


quote:

Three-year contract with Malaysia's largest oil company (http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=PVO&E=NZSE&N=132032)

PVO
31/05/2006
GENERAL

REL: 0926 HRS Provenco Group Limited

GENERAL: PVO: Three-year contract with Malaysia's largest oil company

Provenco signs three-year contract with Malaysia's largest oil company

Listed technology company Provenco has signed a three-year technology supply
contract with a subsidiary of Malaysia's national oil company.

The contract, for supply and implementation of outdoor payment capability for
additional petrol stations worth more than NZ$17m, follows the success of
Provenco's implementation of EMV-compliant payment systems across 500 petrol
stations during 2004, and the supply and implementation for a further 100
stations during 2005 and 2006.

Provenco chief executive David Ritchie described the deal as further
reinforcement of Provenco's reputation as a significant player in the
international retail automation market.

Mr Ritchie said the contract would return consistent revenue to Provenco,
with maintenance revenues in addition.

"This is consistent with Provenco's global growth strategy of developing
partnerships with customers in the true sense - where Provenco will supply,
maintain and upgrade customers' technology where required."

Provenco has continued to enhance its reputation as a provider of
world-leading retail forecourt solutions for the oil industry with a series
of entries into new markets including India, Kuwait, Hong Kong and Europe.

"Asia provided us with a strong foundation which we have successfully built
on over the past few years," Mr Ritchie said.

In April, Provenco announced its move into India, by supplying forecourt
technology to Mumbai-based refining and distribution company Bharat Petroleum
Corporation (BPCL), and more recently announced the move into Europe by
supplying an electronic payments system and outdoor payment capability for
Shell retail petrol stations in Belgium.

Ends

For further information:
David Ritchie, chief executive officer, Provenco. Phone +64 (0) 21 220 9560
or
Gabrielle Domett, marketing communications manager, Provenco.
Phone +64 (0) 21 574 154

About Provenco
Provenco Group Limited is a New Zealand-founded technology company operating
globally with customers in over 25 countries. Listed on the New Zealand stock
exchange (NZX: PVO), the company has a number of international offices
including those in Beijing, Kuala Lumpur, Melbourne and Sydney.

After more than 30 years on the technology scene, Provenco has evolved into a
sound and diverse company. With a heritage in Eftpos and payment solutions,
Provenco's business now extends across a range of technology applications for
the retail environment.

The company's growing diversity is reflected in each of the key areas of its
operations today - providing forecourt solutions for the international retail
oil industry; payment technology and Eftpos in the domestic New Zealand
market; and retail technology including mobile and wireless technology for
the Australasian market.

Provenco's tailored solutions for retail business environments use a
combination of internally-developed software and hardware, as well as top
international brands.

For more information, visit www.provenco.com
End CA:00132032 For:PVO Type:GENERAL Time:2006-05-31:09:26:30

Snow Leopard
31-05-2006, 07:22 PM
quote:Originally posted by leanmeanfightingmachine

Looks like it will be a big 2007!!!!

$1 here we come, it will take a few days to kick in. 1.20 within 3 mnths.


LMFM



I would so like you to be right [:p]

Tok3n
31-05-2006, 07:44 PM
Me too :)

Now time for some annoucements from CTL

Tok3n
13-06-2006, 09:38 AM
SPP

http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=PVO&E=NZSE&N=132578

bushbasher
13-06-2006, 09:43 AM
quote:Originally posted by Tok3n

SPP

http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=PVO&E=NZSE&N=132578



Any opinions on what seems like a slightly unconventional rights offering to me?

I wonder what they are going to spend all this new cash on?

Flying Goat
13-06-2006, 07:54 PM
quote:Originally posted by bushbasher


quote:Originally posted by Tok3n

SPP

http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=PVO&E=NZSE&N=132578



Any opinions on what seems like a slightly unconventional rights offering to me?

I wonder what they are going to spend all this new cash on?


Interesting unfolding of events... Provenco certainly has been very event driven of late, and it seems today's driver is the names associating themselves with the company, as the surge in SP would indicate that nobody is really that worried about the fact that their earnings will also be diluted as a result. Don't get me wrong though, I like PVO and am keen to know what Mr Naire's involvement might be other than the injection of cash. Reason being... obviously he has hand in many high-tech pies at the moment although they are not the same, there are definite similarities, and potentially synergies...

Remember reading some statement he made at the time of acquiring a holding in Cadmus about the "importance of reducing per unit production costs..." The relevance here is that if you check out the break down of PVO earnings in last report, sales revenues abroad were very high, particlarly relative to the market cap of the company, BUT there was very little to show of it at the end of the day in the way of profit. Optimistic to think that Mr Naire can help bring down the production costs for some of the project work for PVO?

Even better, (warning: this is where the post transitions from mildly relevant to wildly imiginative) how about a merged CTL / PVO who might benefit from sales channels worldwide, synergies from consolidated lease books, greater scale to reduce componentry cost per unit, hell, why not throw Rakon in there for good measure and create a world leading NZ technology company?? Not really? Oh well, worth a thought!

bushbasher
14-06-2006, 03:50 AM
Interesting idea. I have positions in all three co's, but I think in terms of wringing out real cost synergies a PVO/CTL tie-up may be the most realistic/ interesting possibility. The introduction of Maire definitely adds an 'I wonder?' factor to the equation though.

Snow Leopard
14-06-2006, 07:15 AM
This equity raising has been well received.

Given the share price history then 85c seems like a fair price (especially if you have bought all your existing shares for less :)).
Those $1.05 options look to be a real give-away to me. ;)

I am unwilling to extend my financial stake in PVO, I do work to a set of rules concerning weightings in my portfolios. But given that I can sell at 95c and buy some new ones at 85c, I have found a profitable solution. There is the risk that I may end up with less shares, there is only enough new shares for 1400 ( about half of ) shareholders to take up their full entitlement.

Assuming all new shares are taken up, the saving in interest payments and the profit dilution the nominally EPS of 10c I had guessed for 2007 would now be 9.5c.

rmbbrave
14-06-2006, 08:33 AM
From the Herald....

Heavyweights buy into Provenco

Wednesday June 14, 2006
By Owen Hembry


Navman founder Peter Maire and The Warehouse's Stephen Tindall have bought into payment technology company Provenco as the firm clears debt and gets set for growth.

Provenco will issue five million shares each to Maire and Tindall and their associated interests at 85c a share - a discount to last week's closing price of 91c - for a total of $4.25 million each.

ABN Amro Craigs research analyst Mark Lister said Tindall and Maire were two great names for Provenco to get on board.

"From past experience, they know what they're talking about, so if they're into it then there probably is a good story there," Lister said.

The company will also offer new shares up to a value of $5000 to each existing shareholder, also at 85c a share, capped at a total value of $7 million.

If the total $15.5 million is raised, which is equivalent to about 16 per cent of Provenco's market capitalisation, Tindall and Maire would each own about 4 per cent of the company.

Chairman David Wolfenden said Provenco had not placed any shares for a cash injection in four years, during which time turnover had grown from $62 million to about $145 million.

The new capital would be used to develop Provenco's international petrol station retail technology business, repay some bank debt and strengthen the balance sheet in anticipation of future growth.

"The significant growth of recent years and improved profitability has been funded by internally generated cashflow and some bank debt and it is now time to lift the level of equity in the business to take Provenco forward," Wolfenden said.

Provenco's shares rose 3c yesterday to close at 95c, continuing an upward trend since a profit downgrade triggered a dramatic sell-off last month and a share price slide from 90c to 74c.

The company said at the time that the downgrade was related to timing issues rather than any lost revenue.

Provenco recently signed a three-year deal worth more than $17 million with a subsidiary of Malaysian oil giant Petronas to supply outdoor payment technology to petrol stations.

The Malaysian deal followed Provenco's first European deal - a $3.5 million contract to design, develop and deliver electronic and outdoor payment systems to oil company Shell's 200 Belgian petrol stations.

Wolfenden said such contracts had long lead times and required a great deal of research and development.

The addition of Tindall and Maire was an endorsement of Provenco's growth strategy "in particular for our success in breaking into the international retail oil industry markets in Malaysia, India, the Middle East and, most recently, into Europe".

He said neither investor would be an active working shareholder.

In addition to the $8.5 million, the Maire and Tindall interests would get 3.45 million options each, which could be converted into shares for $1.05 each.

Snow Leopard
14-06-2006, 10:56 AM
quote:Originally posted by Paper Tiger

...But given that I can sell at 95c and buy some new ones at 85c, I have found a profitable solution....


I notice that someone (not me) actually sold 5882 shares at 95c this morning. [8D]

bushbasher
14-06-2006, 11:02 AM
quote:Originally posted by Paper Tiger


quote:Originally posted by Paper Tiger

...But given that I can sell at 95c and buy some new ones at 85c, I have found a profitable solution....


I notice that someone (not me) actually sold 5882 shares at 95c this morning. [8D]
Somebody doing the perfect arbitrage trade! I guess you have to keep at least 1 share to be on the shareholder register though.

Lizard
14-06-2006, 11:07 AM
A good technique that I've used before for ASX listed SPP's. But not me this time, as I wouldn't be expecting to get the whole $5000 worth via the SPP.

Mr Murphy
16-06-2006, 10:00 PM
[urlhttp://www.epaynews.com/index.cgi?survey=&ref=browse&f=view&id=1150387711861413086&block=[/url]

Fuel Retail POS Market Is Worth USD 710.2 Million

Jun 15 2006 : Retail petroleum POS terminals comprise a global market of USD 710.2 million in 2006 and this total is likely to reach USD 975.8 million by 2009, a recent Frost & Sullivan report indicates. POS terminal vendors are accordingly advised to to target their products to new entrants to the petrol retail market, such as hypermarkets, supermarkets, large discounters and mass merchandisers. Pay-at-pump services, contactless payments and new functions such as loyalty programs, gift cards, store-level management and Internet links represent similar challenges for POS vendors.

As new fuel retail players change the market with competitive pricing, discounted prices linked to loyalty programs and cross-merchandising, POS vendors will have to offer multi-function solutions beyond payment terminals. In short, to capitalize on the new growth opportunities in the petroleum sector, POS vendors must provide complex solutions with advanced automation that runs on open systems but can be modular if necessary. Current POS systems improve merchandising and inventory control but are not a priority for many retailers, which tend to focus on price points.

To circumvent this issue, the Frost report, “Payment Systems in the Petroleum Market”, suggests that POS vendors educate retailers on the value of automation as a competitive differentiator. The benefits of multi-application terminals and systems should be highlighted, as should the provision of products that support open architecture and modularity. Two main types of POS terminals are currently available, standalone and integrated systems, but as more fuel retailers migrate to store-level systems, demand for integrated systems can be expected to increase proportionately.

Murph

Ted2
30-06-2006, 09:11 AM
Anyone got any idea yet on the rights ratio? Like will it be 1 for every 10 held for example?

Like any rights issue it will dilute and surely drop price accordingly - whatever the ratio?

Ted

Lizard
30-06-2006, 12:17 PM
Ted, with an SPP, you normally get offered the chance to purchase up to $5000 worth of shares. It does not matter how many you hold - same offer applies equally to all shareholders. Approx 8.2m shares are to be issued, which is only mildly dilutionary against 111m shares on issue.

At last annual report, there were 4075 shareholders. The company wishes to raise $7m, so only need about one third of them applying for the full $5000. Basic maths says if you apply, you can expect to receive a minimum of$1717 worth, or 2020 shares, and a maximum of $5000 or 5882 shares. My experience suggests you'll probably get about $3000-$3500 allocated if you apply for the lot.

warthog
30-06-2006, 01:13 PM
quote:Originally posted by Ted2

Like any rights issue it will dilute and surely drop price accordingly

Yes.


quote:
whatever the ratio?


The price should decline as long as the ratio of issued shares to existing shares on issue is miniscule.

GPG recently had a 1:10 bonus recapticalisation. The price dropped by pretty much exactly 10/11 or 9% immediately following the issue.

Bling_Bling
30-06-2006, 01:24 PM
quote:Originally posted by Flying Goat

Even better, (warning: this is where the post transitions from mildly relevant to wildly imiginative) how about a merged CTL / PVO who might benefit from sales channels worldwide, synergies from consolidated lease books, greater scale to reduce componentry cost per unit, hell, why not throw Rakon in there for good measure and create a world leading NZ technology company?? Not really? Oh well, worth a thought!







I LIKEY that idea vely much, but the commerce commission may not. [:p]:D

Lizard
30-06-2006, 01:37 PM
quote:Originally posted by Lizard


quote:Originally posted by warthog

The price should decline as long as the ratio of issued shares to existing shares on issue is miniscule.

GPG recently had a 1:10 bonus recapticalisation. The price dropped by pretty much exactly 10/11 or 9% immediately following the issue.



Slight difference - a bonus issue adds nothing to the company. An SPP adds cash and therefore should increase the value of the company slightly.

Snow Leopard
25-07-2006, 10:03 AM
Provenco wins significant Foodstuffs contract (http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?E=NZSE&S=PVO&N=134431) :)

Lizard
25-07-2006, 10:20 AM
Handily timed to ensure shareholders do not neglect their SPP offers....[:0]

leanmeanfightingmachine
25-07-2006, 06:09 PM
i have alot of these share in pvo.

that i have brought from 32cents up.

is it just me or is this stock quite ignored by investors due to it's boom and bust past.

they seam to be doing well and have great revenue streams.

is there any chance that there divi's could improve in the next year or so?

also i have a good knack of picking stocks before they start a long increase up, since i started buying shares 6 yrs ago and have only brought one dog in this time. I am though struggling to find anything good with potential and value. My last buy was FPA at 2.60$

Are other people feeling the same?

I am considering just water as a possible share to get into.

LMFM



quote:Originally posted by Lizard

Handily timed to ensure shareholders do not neglect their SPP offers....[:0]

quote:Originally posted by Lizard

Handily timed to ensure shareholders do not neglect their SPP offers....[:0]

Snow Leopard
23-08-2006, 03:16 PM
It appears that I applied for and got my full $5,000 dollars worth in the recent SPP but that they had a pretty good take-up to the offer.
So now we wait for the non-too-flash end of year profit with the associated statement of things will be better next year.

leanmeanfightingmachine
28-08-2006, 09:46 AM
Yep tomorrow will be the day that we here if PVO is going forward in the next year or two or staying flat.

Does an yone having comments leading up.

LMFM



quote:Originally posted by Paper Tiger

It appears that I applied for and got my full $5,000 dollars worth in the recent SPP but that they had a pretty good take-up to the offer.
So now we wait for the non-too-flash end of year profit with the associated statement of things will be better next year.

Tok3n
29-08-2006, 09:43 AM
http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=PVO&E=NZSE&N=136042

so who's taking the bonus shares, who's taking the money? :)

Nigel
29-08-2006, 09:50 AM
Looks like PVO will be going forward :)
Profit up only 6% - in line with expectations, meaning a PE of 24. I am expecting big things as they look to expand their international presence. Some exciting things already happening, and I think Messrs Tindall and Maire have come on board with high expectations too.
I'll take the bonus issue and enjoy future growth.

COLIN
29-08-2006, 10:16 AM
quote:Originally posted by Nigel

Looks like PVO will be going forward :)
Profit up only 6% - in line with expectations, meaning a PE of 24. I am expecting big things as they look to expand their international presence. Some exciting things already happening, and I think Messrs Tindall and Maire have come on board with high expectations too.
I'll take the bonus issue and enjoy future growth.


Me, too.

Snow Leopard
29-08-2006, 10:34 AM
NPATA = $5.8m which gives a P/E of 19.0 (on the current share numbers or a P/E of 16.4 on a weighted basis for the year).


quote:
Profit distribution
The final profit distribution has been set at 1.3 cents per share. The
interim cash dividend, paid in April 2006, was fully imputed at 1.3 cents per
share. The total distribution for the year will be 2.6 cents per share.

The final profit distribution will be made in the form of non-taxable bonus
shares with an option to elect a fully imputed cash alternative to the bonus
issue. Those shareholders who elect to take the cash will participate in an
off-market buyback of their allocation of bonus shares.


A tax-free bonus issue with an optional tax-paid buyback of same?
I think I will wait to see the details before deciding which way to jump with that one.

rmbbrave
30-08-2006, 09:05 AM
Provenco net profit halved as tax bites

UPDATED 10.13pm Tuesday August 29, 2006


Provenco Group today reported its June year net profit more than halved to $3.8 million thanks largely to paying $4.3m more tax than the prior year.

After last year paying its first dividend since 1997, the former tech wreck cut this year's distribution to 1.3c per share via a non-taxable share issue from 3cps last year.

Shareholders can receive cash in lieu of the bonus issue.

The company, which mainly supplies hardware and software for eftpos systems and other retail technologies, said it was now in a full tax paying position for the 2006 year. A taxation credit in 2005 reflected accumulated losses from prior years.

Revenue grew by 33 per cent to $153.9m.

Chief executive David Ritchie said timing changes with offshore contracts had caused the shortfall in expected earnings for the current financial year.

"These earnings will now occur in subsequent financial years. We will always experience fluctuating revenues and profits around significant contracts in this business, as the work-flow is often outside our control," Mr Ritchie said.

The result did not reflect an investment of $7m in intellectual property associated with Provenco's retail automation division, he said.

The company reported an operating surplus of $7.25m, at the higher end of its $7.0m-$7.3m guidance in May, but down from the $7.6m in 2005.

Chairman David Wolfenden said operating earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (ebitda) rose 6 per cent to $14.6m.

"All four divisions in the group are positioned well for the future, with expanding market opportunities," he said.

The balance sheet strengthened during the year with assets up 19 per cent to $105.6m.

Mr Wolfenden said Vantex Distribution performed strongly and was now Australasia's largest distributor of retail point of sale, barcoding, and mobile and wireless technology. Vantex managing director Lyn Warren will not re-stand for his board seat at the October shareholder meeting but will continue in his role with Vantex.

An increase in shareholders equity included the recent placement of 5 million shares each to interests associated with Navman founder Peter Maire and The Warehouse founder Stephen Tindall, at 85c per share.

After balance date, the company raised a further $6.9 million via a share purchase plan.

Provenco shares closed down 2c at 90c yesterday. They were at 97 a year ago and have dropped form $5.25 in March 2000 at the height of the dot.com bubble.

- NZPA

Snow Leopard
14-09-2006, 03:49 PM
Expansion of the Vantex Technology Distribution (http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=PVO&E=NZSE&N=136874)
So that is one of the places where they are spending mine and others money.

Presumably this will increase future profits and reduce the volatility of those profits.

But don't let the debt get too high guys.

prosperity
19-09-2006, 09:56 AM
Has anyone considered the fact that Stephen Tindall bought 5 mil of these a couple of months back and has options on another 3.45 mil due in march 2008 @$1.08.With his plans for a takeover of WHS, and, to turn it into a different beast,could he not in some way be considering cheaper payment solutions by using PVO.The new megacentre at Sylvia Park has proved very successful and if he goes down the grocery track as well Pvo could well benefit big time or is this just a conspiracy theory.

Silverbak
20-09-2006, 11:52 AM
Wow - volume spikes today.. big buys or big sells ?

Snow Leopard
20-09-2006, 12:30 PM
quote:Originally posted by prosperity

Has anyone considered the fact that Stephen Tindall bought 5 mil of these a couple of months back and has options on another 3.45 mil due in march 2008 @$1.08.With his plans for a takeover of WHS, and, to turn it into a different beast,could he not in some way be considering cheaper payment solutions by using PVO.The new megacentre at Sylvia Park has proved very successful and if he goes down the grocery track as well Pvo could well benefit big time or is this just a conspiracy theory.

To be honest prosperity I can confidently say that it is unlikely that Steven has given much thought to the role of the EFTPOS system in a privatized Warehouse.

Snow Leopard
20-09-2006, 12:32 PM
or indeed the possibilities that the Vantex part of PVO can provide.

Tok3n
22-09-2006, 11:04 AM
quote:Originally posted by prosperity

Has anyone considered the fact that Stephen Tindall bought 5 mil of these a couple of months back and has options on another 3.45 mil due in march 2008 @$1.08.With his plans for a takeover of WHS, and, to turn it into a different beast,could he not in some way be considering cheaper payment solutions by using PVO.The new megacentre at Sylvia Park has proved very successful and if he goes down the grocery track as well Pvo could well benefit big time or is this just a conspiracy theory.


lol nice guess!, check out todays Ann!

Snow Leopard
22-09-2006, 11:27 AM
quote:Originally posted by Paper Tiger


To be honest prosperity I can confidently say that it is unlikely that Steven has given much thought to the role of the EFTPOS system in a privatized Warehouse.


This is so embarrassing [:I]

Tok3n
22-09-2006, 11:32 AM
quote:Originally posted by Paper Tiger


quote:Originally posted by Paper Tiger


To be honest prosperity I can confidently say that it is unlikely that Steven has given much thought to the role of the EFTPOS system in a privatized Warehouse.


This is so embarrassing [:I]


Maybe Tindell reads these forums and just did it to annoy u :D

Maca
11-10-2006, 11:40 AM
Around 12% of PVO shares have changed hands today in special crossings (at 87c). Watch this space...

Snow Leopard
11-10-2006, 12:11 PM
Two trades of 7m. Could well be the same 7m twice, i.e. from seller to broker to buyer.
We need the price to finish up today so the 14m adds to the OBV and then the chartists will soon be able to look back and claim the smart money was getting in. [:0]

rmbbrave
15-10-2006, 10:30 AM
Reclusive billionaire buys into the action with Tindall, Maire
15 October 2006

Turnaround investor Duncan Saville has joined an elite group eyeing Provenco. Garry Sheeran reports.


Like bees around a honey pot, big-name investors and company restructure specialists are staking out positions at listed technology company Provenco, sparking speculation of further corporate activity.

Navman founder Peter Maire and The Warehouse's Stephen Tindall each have 5% stakes in the eftpos systems company.

But it was the arrival of another name on the share register this month that sent brokers rushing to their calculators.

On October 2, the blandly-named General Provincial Insurance Company told the stock exchange it had bought a 5.2% stake in the former Eric Watson-owned business.

A director and prime mover of General Provincial is the secretive, sometimes controversial and very wealthy company turnaround investor, Duncan Saville.

Saville, who worked for Sir Ron Brierley's Hong Kong-listed Industrial Equity Pacific in the `80s, is a founding director of local infrastructure company Infratil.

He is also the controlling shareholder in ERG, an Australian-listed IT business with investments in electronic ticketing.

Last week, a further chunk of almost 6% of Provenco shares was sold on market to a group of investors whose identities are expected to contain more "names" when made public.

The Sunday Star-Times also understands that interests associated with Saville were also keen - but unsuccessful -off-market bidders for the stock.

Had Saville been successful, he would have become the largest shareholder in Provenco, with more than twice the holding of the present largest shareholder and long-time director, Nick Gordon.

Maire and Tindall appeared on the Provenco register after buying into an issue of shares and options to raise $8.5 million for the company as it faced new growth prospects, especially overseas.

Provenco chairman David Wolfenden said at the time he was "delighted" to have the two tech-savvy investors on board, which was a vote of confidence in the company's future.

Last week, Wolfenden said he knew neither the interests behind General Provincial Insurance, nor the identity of the buyers who bought the 6% stake.

"Nor do I know Duncan Saville, or anything of his background," Wolfenden said.

But market sources were last week suggesting the Provenco board may be less than enthusiastic at the prospect of having Saville as major shareholder when major changes may lie ahead.

Saville's major corporate activities have been in Australia and the UK, where he has residential addresses.

In 2003, and after a messy corporate collapse across the Tasman, South African-born Saville was described as "the most reclusive businessman in Australia" with an eclectic swag of investments that included spectacular killings, and some real duds.

In a court case resulting from one business collapse, a NSW District Court judge said part of Saville's evidence was "obviously totally false".

In his "marked preference" for one witness's evidence ahead of that of Saville's, Justice Terry Christie said: "That is the most polite way I can put it."

Maire said that as a value investor working to salvage distressed situations, Saville often was working "at the boundaries".

Besides his Provenco shareholding, Maire owns 17% of rival company Cadmus Technology, and sits on the Cadmus board.

Shortly after taking a stake in Provenco, Maire merged Cadmus with Australian IT company Intellect Holdings Group, which itself was being restructured by Saville.

Maire said Saville rarely took seats on boards of the companies he was involved with.

"He doesn't run businesses, and he doesn't seek the limelight, but he is very good at backing the right people in particular situations, and he doesn't run away from problems," Maire said.

Maire said Saville's failures were part of the nature of the business he was involved with, "and he has had some very big successes".

"He is

Flying Goat
15-10-2006, 06:42 PM
quote:Originally posted by Flying Goat


Even better, (warning: this is where the post transitions from mildly relevant to wildly imiginative) how about a merged CTL / PVO who might benefit from sales channels worldwide, synergies from consolidated lease books, greater scale to reduce componentry cost per unit, hell, why not throw Rakon in there for good measure and create a world leading NZ technology company?? Not really? Oh well, worth a thought!



Hmmm... this is getting interesting, maybe my crazy idea back in June was not so far from the mark after all...[8D] Well.. .apart from the Rakom bit that is. Cheers for the interesting article (above) rmbrave!

R

Bling_Bling
16-10-2006, 08:33 AM
Do you think the Commerce Commission would approave a CTL + PVO?

Snow Leopard
16-10-2006, 02:44 PM
Nice bit of speculation been going I see.
I wonder if PVO might consider selling off a division?

Flying Goat
16-10-2006, 07:35 PM
quote:Originally posted by Paper Tiger

Nice bit of speculation been going I see.
I wonder if PVO might consider selling off a division?


I would be surprised if that was on the cards PT, as they seem to have been in acquisition mode of late...? My money would be (but, alas, is not) on consolidation of CTL/PVO, why not? Commcomm might not have a problem if they can be convinced it is necessary om order to compete on GLOBAL SCALE, and evidently both PVO and CTL are very much global players in their niches, but still MICRO caps in reality. Also my take on both PVO and CTL is that they have been building up the distribution / lease book parts of the business to provide more reliable cashflow to help compensate for the lumpy unpredictability of their contractual work... might be wrong though. Well done to all those who held onto PVO during the profit downgrades a while back..!

Cheers
Flying Goat

Flying Goat
16-10-2006, 07:38 PM
quote:Originally posted by MoSteph

I just love the AU:ERG chart. Notwithstanding the weeny bounce at the mo, it gives FTX a run for its money, and is the most fabulous account of the tech 'boom'...


yep... tech seems to be having a rennaisaince (pardon the spelling) check out ASX.ITE chart, over 100% in two weeks and lifting average of 10% per day...!

Cheers
Flying Goat

Snow Leopard
17-10-2006, 06:12 PM
I see the NZPA (http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/story.cfm?c_id=3&ObjectID=10406295) continues to ramp a PVO - CTL merger. Personally I do not want PVO combined with the detritus of the NZ and AU EFTPOS/Smart Card space.
If PVO want to throw the NZ EFTPOS business overboard to lighten the ship then I could cope with that but I am not sure that any more would be in the best overall interests of a PVO shareholder.

Feel free to disagree ;)

leanmeanfightingmachine
17-10-2006, 06:41 PM
is this a good thing or a bad thing. i got alot of pvo do i get out or stay in.

what if they merge i thought PVO would go up in price. Or woulf they be dragging the CTL
dog along for the ride?

LMFM




quote:Originally posted by Paper Tiger

I see the NZPA (http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/story.cfm?c_id=3&ObjectID=10406295) continues to ramp a PVO - CTL merger. Personally I do not want PVO combined with the detritus of the NZ and AU EFTPOS/Smart Card space.
If PVO want to throw the NZ EFTPOS business overboard to lighten the ship then I could cope with that but I am not sure that any more would be in the best overall interests of a PVO shareholder.

Feel free to disagree ;)

TheBossMan
17-10-2006, 07:22 PM
quote:Originally posted by leanmeanfightingmachine

is this a good thing or a bad thing. i got alot of pvo do i get out or stay in.

what if they merge i thought PVO would go up in price. Or woulf they be dragging the CTL
dog along for the ride?

LMFM

Hold PVO. It is a growth stock. Huge upside in Asian markets.

Mr Murphy
18-10-2006, 09:43 PM
Not sure who in the media is pushing the CTL/ PVO merger so heavily, each article just spits out the same stuff from the last one in a different order. CTL is currently taking over part of Intellect in Australia, that is what they raised the NZ$6.2 mill for (part of it). That will keep them busy for the next year integrating that.

I do think a merger between these two would be great however, they would completely dominate the NZ and Australian markets, would make for great cashflow to take on the rest of the world!

Great industry niche to be in at the mo this one. With the way the business world is consolidating it won't be long till PVO or CTL are either bought out, or they will keep on acquiring international players, much like the SOE model.

I would not sell my PVO or CTL shares in the near future.

Cheers
Murph

COLIN
18-10-2006, 09:46 PM
quote:Originally posted by Mr Murphy



I would not sell my PVO or CTL shares in the near future.
Cheers
Murph


Nor me.

Bling_Bling
19-10-2006, 08:33 AM
quote:Originally posted by COLIN


quote:Originally posted by Mr Murphy



I would not sell my PVO or CTL shares in the near future.
Cheers
Murph


Nor me.


nor me also :D

Tok3n
21-11-2006, 02:57 PM
Todd Capital comes onboard

http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=PVO&E=NZSE&N=140208

Silverbak
24-11-2006, 11:29 AM
Positive action happening today. What will the chartists do with the breakout above $1.00 if it closes at this new high ?

Snow Leopard
24-11-2006, 04:23 PM
Well it is a long time since we have seen the high side of a dollar. I wonder why our last buyer was so keen?

Disc: It was different when I was young, $5 plus a share and flying pigs. You don't see them anymore.

leanmeanfightingmachine
26-11-2006, 08:37 PM
Ok can one of the magic charters come out and tell us where this share is going and if they have predicted this move to $1.05 (i would think not).

$1.15-$1.20 within a week or two? who knows.

LMFM




quote:Originally posted by Silverbak

Positive action happening today. What will the chartists do with the breakout above $1.00 if it closes at this new high ?

leanmeanfightingmachine
26-11-2006, 08:41 PM
Ok can one of the magic charters come out and tell us where this share is going and if they have predicted this move to $1.05 (i would think not).

$1.15-$1.20 within a week or two? who knows.

LMFM




quote:Originally posted by Silverbak

Positive action happening today. What will the chartists do with the breakout above $1.00 if it closes at this new high ?

biker
29-11-2006, 08:51 PM
Toddd Technologies can't seem to get enough of these :):)




Company Announcements




Provenco Group Limited - Announcements




PVO
29/11/2006
SSH

REL: 1622 HRS Provenco Group Limited

SSH: PVO: SSH Notice From Todd Technologies Limited

NOTICE 27853 DETAILS

Submitted Date : 29-Nov-2006 16:19
Status : Accepted

Substantial : Y Director : N
Add Holder : N Change Holder : Y
Ceased Holder : N Change Nature : N

Issuer Code : PVO Provenco Group Limited
Holder : Todd Technologies Limited

Address : Level 14
: 95 Customhouse Quay
: Wellington
Country : New Zealand

Contact Name : C G L Morrison
Phone : 04 473 8346

Total of Interest : 22000000
Total Issued : 139370929
Total % : 15.79

Class : PVO
Votes Attached : 1

Beneficial
Total of Interest : 22000000
Current % held : 15.79
Last % held : 12.9
Names : Todd TEchnologies Limited
Transaction Dates : 29 Nov 2006
Total Votes : 4000000
Considerations : 4000000

Non Beneficial
Total of Interest :

Description :
Purchase of 4,000,000 ordinary shares for $1.00 per share Documentation
With Notice : No
Not Filed : Yes
Been Filed : No
Number of pages : 0

leanmeanfightingmachine
29-11-2006, 09:09 PM
i think some people are going to buy back this company and delist.

any thoughts anyone.

LMFM



quote:Originally posted by biker

Toddd Technologies can't seem to get enough of these :):)




Company Announcements




Provenco Group Limited - Announcements




PVO
29/11/2006
SSH

REL: 1622 HRS Provenco Group Limited

SSH: PVO: SSH Notice From Todd Technologies Limited

NOTICE 27853 DETAILS

Submitted Date : 29-Nov-2006 16:19
Status : Accepted

Substantial : Y Director : N
Add Holder : N Change Holder : Y
Ceased Holder : N Change Nature : N

Issuer Code : PVO Provenco Group Limited
Holder : Todd Technologies Limited

Address : Level 14
: 95 Customhouse Quay
: Wellington
Country : New Zealand

Contact Name : C G L Morrison
Phone : 04 473 8346

Total of Interest : 22000000
Total Issued : 139370929
Total % : 15.79

Class : PVO
Votes Attached : 1

Beneficial
Total of Interest : 22000000
Current % held : 15.79
Last % held : 12.9
Names : Todd TEchnologies Limited
Transaction Dates : 29 Nov 2006
Total Votes : 4000000
Considerations : 4000000

Non Beneficial
Total of Interest :

Description :
Purchase of 4,000,000 ordinary shares for $1.00 per share Documentation
With Notice : No
Not Filed : Yes
Been Filed : No
Number of pages : 0

TheBossMan
29-11-2006, 10:24 PM
hmmm.probably not.they may want to remain listed so as to attract more capital as they grow.

Todd Tech. has obviously done more due diligence and liked what they saw, so they're topping up. It may be that there are several contracts in the pipeline and PVO cant yet announce them to the market.

leanmeanfightingmachine
30-11-2006, 08:08 AM
Yea it will be interesting to see what happens between now and christmas.

Leighton.






quote:Originally posted by TheBoss

hmmm.probably not.they may want to remain listed so as to attract more capital as they grow.

Todd Tech. has obviously done more due diligence and liked what they saw, so they're topping up. It may be that there are several contracts in the pipeline and PVO cant yet announce them to the market.

leanmeanfightingmachine
30-11-2006, 08:11 AM
Does anyone have a set share value on PVO at the moment?

LMFM





quote:Originally posted by TheBoss

hmmm.probably not.they may want to remain listed so as to attract more capital as they grow.

Todd Tech. has obviously done more due diligence and liked what they saw, so they're topping up. It may be that there are several contracts in the pipeline and PVO cant yet announce them to the market.

Captain Ramjet
01-12-2006, 02:02 AM
Still a bit new to this charting thing but here is my take on it for those who are interested...maybe one of the more senior chartists could correct any of my mistakes.

1)There was a strong breakout, with good volume, of a shortterm downward trend on the 20 / 21 Nov (using a 30 day moving average) to form a new up trend (higher highs, higher lows). Early Technical traders would have entered somewhere around here at 93 - 94 cents

2)There was a rising on balance volume up to this point which is a good indictator of a coming break out and it seems to be continuing which acts as confirmation of a new trend.

3)There has been continued high volumes on the new up trend

So all is looking good for this share from a technical point of view.

Just my 2 cents. I would be in but all my funds are tied up in other uptrending shares :-)

Ramjet

Phaedrus
01-12-2006, 07:09 PM
Here is a chart to illustrate the points made by Captain Ramjet.
PVO was in an uptrend for a couple of years, then tracked sideways for about 2 years. Trading ranges that follow an uptrend like this are usually a continuation pattern - the breakout is usually upwards, so the direction of this breakout should come as no surprise. What you don't know is when the breakout will occur. This one, however, was signalled very clearly about 6 weeks before the event.
On Balance Volume is a leading indicator in that it often shows strength or weakness before this is reflected in price movement. See how the OBV uptrend ended before the price trendline was broken. The OBV (and the stock price) then tracked sideways for 2 years until, on 11/10/06, the OBV spiked upward, breaking above all previous peaks. This very bullish signal was followed 6 weeks later by price action finally breaking above the 2 year trading range and above the psychologically important $1 barrier. (Significant support/resistance is often found at round numbers)
It is only too easy to get caught up in the day-to-day fluctuations of a stock like PVO. It takes a long-term chart to bring a little clarity and put everything into perspective.
http://h1.ripway.com/Phaedrus/PVO121001.gif

Captain Ramjet
01-12-2006, 07:43 PM
thanks for that Phaedrus. Im learning slowly but surely :)

Tell me what software do you use to do your charts. I only use free ones off the internet at the moment, yahoo charts mostly, but as I am starting to learn more they are becoming a bit restrictive.

Thanks

Ramjet

Phaedrus
04-12-2006, 07:00 AM
I use MetaStock, but there are plenty of other programs offering much the same functionality. Worldwide (and also in NZ) MetaStock is the most widely used though.

leanmeanfightingmachine
12-01-2007, 03:59 PM
interesting that there were four medium sized trades today being friday to push priced up.

wonder if someone knows something we don't. 1.15 is pretty high for this share now.

Any comments people?

LMFM

TheBossMan
12-01-2007, 07:25 PM
I dont know what is in the pipeline...but PVO is a true growth stock...They have significant upside in all 4 divisions. I'll finalise my analysis using a residual earnings model and will post it here in 2 weeks.

Buy and Hold for a few years is all I can suggest for now. In terms of forecasting a share price, watch this space...


Disc: Hold some

metro
12-01-2007, 08:53 PM
thanks TheBoss. Given your good work with RYM, I look forward to your next post. And much appreciated.

metro

TheBossMan
12-01-2007, 09:32 PM
thanks. As is obvious by now, my analysis of Ryman was way too conservative. For Provenco, I'd be looking at realistic numbers, rather than playing it too safe.

TheBossMan
25-01-2007, 02:34 PM
Initiating Coverage: Provenco
Current SP: $1.12
My Valuation: $2.70

You may say it is an aggressive valuation, but IMO, it is not. Remember Ryman - from a mkt. capitalisation of $520m, it went to a $1.1 billion company in one year - all at the back of consistent results. Nothing that they hadn't done in previous years. I believe Provenco will become a $350m company from $157m as of today.

While Provenco is a different company, I'm confident about its prospects as a growth company, in the countries it is operating in.
----------------------------------------------------

Assumptions: Sales growth of 19%,16%,10%, 10%,10% in the next five years. (they've been achieving more than this and even without acquistions).

On a sensitivity analysis and minimum growth of 15% for the next 2 years, the share is worth at least $2.30.

Core Operating Income will be approximately $16m for 2007(4m in 2006) on sales of $183m ($154m in 2006)and is projected to increase to $30m in five years (on sales of $260-$270m in 2011).

The Return on Shareholder Equity was 30.1 and 10.5% in the past 2 years and is set to return in excess of 30% for the next 5 years.

The return on Net Operating Assets will continue to be in excess of 25% for the next 5 years.

Profit Margin will be around 12%, while asset turnover is stable around 2.6.

Other Assumptions:
Cost of Operations - 10.5%
Beta - 1.1
------------------------------
Disclaimer:
I'll post a detailed report soon with investment rationale, growth and profitability drivers, emerging technology and where Provenco is placed, potential in India etc.I've seen their installations in BPCL stations. I have not had any input from anyone associated with Provenco reg: this analysis.

Please note that I use a Residual Earnings Model to arrive at these figures. I don't worry about their financing activities, dividends, cashflow etc.

Because I'm now confident of PVO outperforming most shares in NZX in the next 2 years, I've bought some shares earlier today. I also bought some last year.

Please do your own research or seek independent advice before buying/selling this stock.

------------------------------------------------

TheBossMan
26-01-2007, 09:50 AM
When the cost of operations is increased to 12%, the valuation is $2.35.

Hopefully, the market will soon wake up to the potential. The sell side is slowly dwindling now and there's less than 100k shares on offer.

Patience is surely needed and any announcement of a contract will help.

ratkin
26-01-2007, 10:14 AM
This company has had too many chances imo

Was at the forefront of technology with eftpos but has not really taken advantage like it should of. NZ was one of the first countries to go "cashless" but now the rest of the world has caught up and this company failed to capitalise on its first mover advantage

TheBossMan
26-01-2007, 10:21 AM
EFTPOS is not the core revenue driver for Provenco. In fact, I'd not touch a stock that relies primarily on EFTPOS (eg, Cadmus).

Provenco's forecourt solutions, integrated site management, barcoding etc. coupled with Vantex distribution set the scene for future sales growth.

TheBossMan
07-02-2007, 02:57 PM
$1.18 - a 52-week high.

ratkin
07-02-2007, 05:09 PM
Bought in today , basically taking a punt that the smart money that has moved in will start to work its magic.

Lawso
07-02-2007, 06:27 PM
The Todd family has bought 22 million PVO shares over the past three months, according to Investment Research Group (www.irg.co.nz).

TheBossMan
07-02-2007, 07:15 PM
quote:Originally posted by ratkin

Bought in today , basically taking a punt that the smart money that has moved in will start to work its magic.


ratkin, good to see you've changed your mind. You won't regret the buy today. A conservative estimate suggests that you could hold on for a 75% return, including dividends. I hope you dont sell it for a quick 10% gain when the SP reaches $1.25 or so.

metro
07-02-2007, 07:18 PM
excellent stuff TheBoss - thanks for your informative posts

TheBossMan
07-02-2007, 07:29 PM
quote:Originally posted by Lawso

The Todd family has bought 22 million PVO shares over the past three months, according to Investment Research Group (www.irg.co.nz).

Yes, 18million (@96 cps) on 21/11 and another 4 million ($1.00) on 29/11. So, they're already sitting on a 4 million profit. This is after extensive due diligence, analysis of current contracts, revenue streams, and most importantly assessing future growth and PVO's position to leverage the potential.

One needs to think that investors like Todd Technologies, Peter Maire (Navman), and Tindall (Warehouse) are not there for a quick 10-20% gain. If that is the case, they'd have sold out by now having bought at 91 cents. Good investors would look at least doubling their money, if 3 or 4 baggers are not around.

Footsie
07-02-2007, 07:40 PM
Boss if you want the s/p to double, you'll need more growth than 10-15%

RYM was growing NPAT at 40%

TheBossMan
07-02-2007, 08:10 PM
quote:Originally posted by Footsie

Boss if you want the s/p to double, you'll need more growth than 10-15%

I agree mostly, although we need to remember PVO's NPAT has been $4m, $8.5m, and before paying off deferred tax $7 million. These are profits made when they were also making acquisitions.

I believe the Return on Net Operating asssets will grow to the tune of 24.4% and 32.8% in the next 2 years (ie. the acquisitions, inventory, synergies in those purchases etc.) will drive part of the core operating income.

On a revenue growth of 19% in 2007 and holding op. expenses at 15%, my profit projection is $15.9 million for the full year and then 53%, 10%,10%,10% for the next 4 years. The recurring 10% is just because I've held all the parameters unchanged.

Even if they make only $10 million in 2007, at a discount rate of equity of 14%, the valuation is $1.82.

ratkin
07-02-2007, 08:12 PM
quote:ratkin, good to see you've changed your mind. You won't regret the buy today. A conservative estimate suggests that you could hold on for a 75% return, including dividends. I hope you dont sell it for a quick 10% gain when the SP reaches $1.25 or so.

No thats not my style, i tend to buy on a longer term perspective. Unless something drastic happens to the company then will be staying invested same applies to my other NZ interests including charlies.

TheBossMan
07-02-2007, 08:19 PM
quote:Originally posted by Footsie


RYM was growing NPAT at 40%

Different company with different growth and profitability prospects.

Footsie
07-02-2007, 08:29 PM
Still unconvinced.......... though havent done my full homework

ABN has a target of round $1

TheBossMan
07-02-2007, 08:52 PM
No worries.

Not wanting to bag broker/research firm recommendations, but how much of research and analysis has ABN done? Is it a quick 'back of an envelope' valuation? How much of technology, business and regional knowledge does the analyst have in arriving at this $1?

If ABN suggests $1, does this mean we should sell, now that it is trading at $1.18? Todd technologies spent $22 million + transaction costs (lawyers fees) ...for a potential loss-situation?

You get my point - do not buy/ sell on broker's recommendation. do not buy/sell just because Todd or someone else has invested in the firm.

The same broker also recommended DPC to me and said a big buyer of DPC will pay upto $3.20 (this was in december 2005). Not that I bought any...

I recall IRG recommending PPG a good buy when it was $1.16...it promptly went all the way down to 55 cents or so...and hasnt seen $1.16 since then.

TheBossMan
08-02-2007, 10:23 AM
$1.19 and the sell side shrinking. Can we see $1.25 by end of this month?

hairdresser
08-02-2007, 08:30 PM
Brokers are probably as good as anyone else when it comes to tipping stocks. If they really knew what would happen they would buy large themselves and retire.

I sold mine at 1.07, I can't see much to value PVO over $1.00. They have lumpy cashflow from offshore sales and limited opportunities for growth in NZ. Also their sales are one off hardware sales with no trailing revenue. Outstanding shares have increased by 40% over the past year and the PE has gone from 13 to over 30. But in this market who knows what the value should be.

The big boys bought in at around 85c, probably around fair value.

IMHO they are going to have to post some good numbers to justify this.

Footsie
08-02-2007, 08:30 PM
Boss they actually just upgraded today

Read the report in full

DCF is still only 107c

problem being all the new shares on issue diluting things

EPS is still half what it was 2 years ago!

Still ignoring all that, growth prospects look good.
but i've missed 20c of the ride....and DCF val's are normally pretty good.
growth assumptions they have are quite aggressive

how do u get 2.70 Val?
are you suggesting i will need to hold 5 years to get that?

TheBossMan
08-02-2007, 09:53 PM
quote:Originally posted by hairdresser

They have lumpy cashflow from offshore sales and limited opportunities for growth in NZ. Also their sales are one off hardware sales with no trailing revenue.
Please read sharechat interview of CEO last year to understand how they have acquired a rental base, translating to annuity-type revenue.

Also, one-off hardware sales are more done by the re-seller (especially in the case of Vantex). They make extra $$ via support, maintenance etc. Think of the number of hardware + software + network upgrades that customers all over Asia-Pacific would have to do, year on year. And Provenco's presence is at the core of the business transaction, i.e, billing.


quote:Originally posted by hairdresser


The big boys bought in at around 85c, probably around fair value.

Only some bought in 85c...Todd Technologies bought at 96cents and $1.

TheBossMan
08-02-2007, 10:03 PM
quote:Originally posted by Footsie

Boss they actually just upgraded today

Read the report in full; DCF is still only 107c


what changed between their previous report and today? Provenco hasnt really come up with any additional news? So where did the extra 7cps come from?

Also, is DCF the appropriate valuation method for a growth company? Especially when it is issuing share capital & growing by acquisition?

what are the assumptions underpinning this $1.07 valuation?


quote:Originally posted by Footsie

how do u get 2.70 Val?

I got this using a residual earnings model. I've provided my assumptions in an earlier post, but it is essentially 19%,16%,10% growth, holding expenses constant. My discounted value of equity is 12% and that gave me $2.70. This being a technology stock, I ran sensitivity analysis on higher discount rates (15%), and even that returns in excess of $2.



quote:Originally posted by Footsie

are you suggesting i will need to hold 5 years to get that?


No...looking out on a 5-year horizon and with the stated assumptions, the share value is $2.30 (on higher WACC or $2.70 with a lower WACC). In other words, the share is really worth $2.30. This doesnt mean that the share price will be $2.xx in 5 years. Market may be willing to pay $2.xx by next year (or) market may wait 6 years to pay that price. But, if the share price reaches say $2.50 next year, you'll know it is time to sell.

Westie
09-02-2007, 08:16 AM
quote:Also their sales are one off hardware sales with no trailing revenue

I think what you'll find is now they are leveraging their position as supplier of forecourt technology to provide all technology, inventory, barcoding etc to the stations. This is the reverse of what they were previously doing i.e. providing payment solutions then gaining forecourt contracts.

With the forecourt technology, PVO is also building a reputation for delivery in a niche area. There are a few major international oil players so that makes things easier for PVO. Once they successfully deliver one contract for say Shell, it is easier to win more contracts from Shell. That is what is happening.

So the forecourt contracts are one off, but they can leverage for further sales of other technology. Successful delivery of contracts & then further technology from PVO & it becomes harder for the customers to switch to another provider.

I'm not really sure who their main competitors are in the forecourt technology area but i suspect that is where PVO are betting their real growth to come from thru a strategy similar to that above.

In the short term EMV compliance deadline is Dec 07 so they expect a last minute rush of sales here.

Actually, the strategy is all explained in the CEO's address in the 06 annual report.

winner69
09-02-2007, 09:51 AM
Mention of a few million loss in H1 seems to have frightened a few this morning ..... did say at AGM the first half would be weak and the second half stronger .... but didn't really say they were going to lose millions

TheBossMan
09-02-2007, 10:21 AM
Few years back I'd have panicked and sold out myself. But, I've since learnt to be resilient and back my analysis.

There is likelihood of an article appearing in the weekend newspapers reg: half-year loss and there may be further selling out on monday. I'll jump in on monday pre-noon to top up my holdings.

On 21st there may be another opportunity to top up.

winner69
09-02-2007, 11:17 AM
Hope so Boss

I do hope this is not starting to look to look like the good old days when the 'Advantage Corp' hype was outrageous

I remember one announcement along the lines the the latest whizz bang POS terminal was so brillant that some outfit in Asia was so bedazzled with it they built the biggest service station in the world (50 lanes or something) just so they could use the terminals ....... have terminals the punters will come

Fun while it lasted earlier this century ... maybe this is a different animal

Westie
09-02-2007, 11:29 AM
They have a pretty good record of winning the contracts that they allude to in their announcements, even when they bury them in the announcment of a downgrade check out May


quote: 17 May 2006

PROVENCO ISSUES PROFIT DOWNGRADE GUIDANCE

Provenco Payments, a provider of EFTPOS technologies to the New Zealand market and representing approximately 20% of the group's revenue, having achieved a strong result in the first half is experiencing a larger decline in revenue for EMV-compliance work, than was expected. Provenco now anticipates lower levels of activity in this area until the 2007 calendar year.

We are actively exploring an increasing number of opportunities in many markets and we have two significant contracts under negotiation. We will continue to keep the market
informed."


The price dropped & then of course they won the contracts & there was a subsequent bounce. I bought on the sell off last time but i'm happy just to hold this time :)

TheBossMan
09-02-2007, 02:53 PM
"Tax write-offs for exporters to develop new and large markets" (Source:http://www.stuff.co.nz/3956399a10.html)

Augurs well for PVO to make further progress in India, Malaysia etc.

Footsie
09-02-2007, 09:13 PM
Boss, DCF is fine for growth companies as you factor in the growth

I'd love you to do an earnings valation on ABA...... my DCF is $4.00 now so i bet your model would pump out something like $6.00....... its a growth coy too

thanks in advance;)

PS i'm holding fire with PVO for now....

Bling_Bling
12-02-2007, 07:04 AM
The high $NZ is hitting PVO hard and i cant see the $NZ coming down anytime soon.

TheBossMan
21-02-2007, 10:20 AM
Announcement out! Excellent news re: projection for full year. They have forecast revenues of $180 million and EBITDA of $10million.

--------my forecast last month------
Core Operating Income will be approximately $16m for 2007(4m in 2006) on sales of $183m ($154m in 2006).
----------------------------------------

Obviously, allowing for some currency fluctuations and pumping more money into pre-sales, they are meeting my estimates.

I'm comfortable with my valuation in excess of $2.

Remember they made $5m (income) in 2005 and they're set to double it now.

Placebo
21-02-2007, 12:18 PM
errrrr... am I missing something here? Didn't they just post a $1.9m loss??

Bling_Bling
21-02-2007, 12:36 PM
quote:Originally posted by TheBoss


If ABN suggests $1, does this mean we should sell, now that it is trading at $1.18? Todd technologies spent $22 million + transaction costs (lawyers fees) ...for a potential loss-situation?



How can the Todd Family add value to PVO apart from funding additional capital? PVO can go to the market for new capital. How did you come to the conclusion that PVO is worth $2?

hairdresser
21-02-2007, 12:49 PM
EBITDA
Dec 04 6.7m
Jun 05 7.2m P/EBITDA ttm 12x
Dec 06 8.1m
Jun 06 6.5m P/EBITDA ttm 15x
Dec 06 2.4m
Jun 07 10.5m P/EBITDA 15x [on Actual Dec 06 and proj Jun 07] lower end of proj gives 16x

EBITDA/Share
Jun 05 14c
Jun 06 13c
Jun 07 9c lower end 8.5c

Growth in shares outstanding has also outperformed revenue growth.

I remember they bought an outfit in Austrlia that was going to kick in with some good numbers and that the integration was completed earlier than anticiapted last year.

IMO with only 12% growth it doesn't support such a high multiple.

Good luck with $2.00, it may get there eventually, but I think it will see 90c first, high dollar et al.

TheBossMan
21-02-2007, 12:57 PM
quote:Originally posted by Placebo

errrrr... am I missing something here? Didn't they just post a $1.9m loss??

thats for the half-year. See the comment re: $9.5 - $11.5 million for full year.

TheBossMan
21-02-2007, 12:59 PM
quote:Originally posted by hairdresser


Good luck with $2.00, it may get there eventually, but I think it will see 90c first, high dollar et al.

I do hope it gets to 90c in the short-term, so that I could buy more. And from 90c, if it does get to $2, I wont be complaining.

hairdresser
21-02-2007, 01:10 PM
I'd be interested at 90c as well.

TheBossMan
22-02-2007, 06:32 AM
quote:Originally posted by hairdresser

EBITDA

IMO with only 12% growth it doesn't support such a high multiple.


Not sure what this 12% growth represents, but the revenue growth has been 18% (from $150m to $180m).

hairdresser
22-02-2007, 09:13 AM
Sorry I used the period on period number from PVO's announcement 6 month on 6 month. I think the $180m comes from their forecast oops I means projection.

"Provenco Group Limited (NZX: PVO) today announced 12.9% revenue growth for
the six months to 31 December 2006 when compared with the same period last
year."

They need 20% period on period growth for 2H/07 to achieve their projection. They have given a EBITDA projection of $10.5m +/- 10% so there will be some degree of revenue uncertainty. Also exchange rate, market mix, completion of key contracts will impact. No guidance on where the revenue growth will come from apart from vague statements about great opportunities for the future in China. Most of the recent growth has come from their Australian acquisition, but this appears to have had the effect of diluting earnings.

Hope they do well in China, it is a huge market...

Bling_Bling
22-02-2007, 10:52 AM
quote:Originally posted by hairdresser



Hope they do well in China, it is a huge market...



Any NZ firm thats been in China have had their hair completely shaved off. It is not easy dealing with the Chinese. I would say going into China is a short term negative for the SP.

bransm
23-03-2007, 03:16 PM
see the Todd family grapped a few more

PVO
23/03/2007
SSH

REL: 1220 HRS Provenco Group Limited

SSH: PVO: SSH Notice From Todd Technologies Limited

NOTICE 28448 DETAILS

Submitted Date : 23-Mar-2007 12:18
Status : Accepted

Substantial : Y Director : N
Add Holder : N Change Holder : Y
Ceased Holder : N Change Nature : N

Issuer Code : PVO Provenco Group Limited
Holder : Todd Technologies Limited

Address : Level 14
: 95 Customhouse Quay
: Wellington
Country : New Zealand

Contact Name : C G L Morrison
Phone : 04 473 8346

Total of Interest : 27073498
Total Issued : 139370929
Total % : 19.43

Class : PVO
Votes Attached : 1

Beneficial
Total of Interest : 27076498
Current % held : 19.43
Last % held : 15.79
Names : Todd Technologies Limited
Transaction Dates : 23 March 2007
Total Votes : 5076498
Considerations : 5076498

Non Beneficial
Total of Interest :

Description :
Off market purchase on 23 March 2007 of 5,076,498 ordinary shares from
Tahia Investments Limited for $5,076,498
Documentation
With Notice : No
Not Filed : Yes
Been Filed : No
Number of pages : 0

Date of Last Notice : 29-Nov-2006

Contrarian
23-03-2007, 03:34 PM
Gidday
Yeah, From Peter Maire!

hairdresser
23-03-2007, 04:22 PM
He wants to buy NAVMAN back or at least part of it. At least he didnt kill the price when dunping.

Bling_Bling
27-03-2007, 06:38 AM
Maybe good opportunity to accummulate some more shares at these levels? The SP aint gonna stay at these levels for too long?

hairdresser
27-03-2007, 10:14 AM
Looks like PM shifted out of PVO into CTL....

I might buy some more CTL

Bling_Bling
28-03-2007, 08:31 AM
I feel a merger between PVO and CTL in the future. :D Just a feeling and thats all it is. :D

winner69
24-05-2007, 11:05 AM
quote:Originally posted by winner69

Hope so Boss

I do hope this is not starting to look to look like the good old days when the 'Advantage Corp' hype was outrageous

I remember one announcement along the lines the the latest whizz bang POS terminal was so brillant that some outfit in Asia was so bedazzled with it they built the biggest service station in the world (50 lanes or something) just so they could use the terminals ....... have terminals the punters will come

Fun while it lasted earlier this century ... maybe this is a different animal


Maybe it isn't a different animal after all

This is sounding more like the PVO (Advantage) of old

That's some downgrade today but as Wolfie says 'it has only become apparent' ..... yeah right wolfie

Come on guys .... a real bargain now down in the 60's ... boss and hairdresser - stop licking your chops and get in there and buy

I won't be

hairdresser
24-05-2007, 11:37 AM
Man I'm glad I sold out at 107.

I think I'll wait for the next little dip before buying in... or maybe a little longer even.

Think I'll hold on to my Charlies a little longer

The announcment was pretty bad almost "we have no idea what we are doing".

Also we are EMV compliant and have nice new PVO terminals, or else they disconnect our EFT-POS, only problem is that in the last 3 years we haven't had one customer who requires the smart card feature...hmmmmm. It almost sounds like a tax. ie buy this feature you don't need or we will not supply you with the services you do need.

TheBossMan
24-05-2007, 02:22 PM
This is a bit dodgy, methinks. Surely the outlook would have been known 2 months back.

I still think this firm is good enough and has growth prospects. I get the feeling they're trying too many things at the same time, in different markets. But the problem is, the market does expect short-term results.

I'm a buyer at these levels.

hairdresser
24-05-2007, 02:39 PM
Be careful here, remember the old adage "Downgrades follow downgrades" We've had 2 already with no sign of anything picking up....

I definitely want short term results.

COLIN
24-05-2007, 09:10 PM
The Todd family won't be very amused by what is going on with this puppy.

Scuffer
24-05-2007, 09:18 PM
quote:Originally posted by COLIN

The Todd family won't be very amused by what is going on with this puppy.
I agree but do you think they could have got it so wrong I would expect they are in for the long haul and will see this has a good reason to go shopping.

warthog
24-05-2007, 09:21 PM
quote:Originally posted by COLIN

The Todd family won't be very amused by what is going on with this puppy.


Shouldn't come as too much of a shock to them ...

"Provenco Group Limited (NZX:PVO) has appointed Chris Morrison of Todd Capital as a director of the company." (27 March 2007)

TheBossMan
24-05-2007, 09:21 PM
Having a CEO ex-Shell appeared to be a wise move then - but is there an over-reliance on contracts from Shell using his contacts?

Heads must roll for this?

winner69
01-07-2007, 07:37 PM
quote:Originally posted by hairdresser

Be careful here, remember the old adage "Downgrades follow downgrades" We've had 2 already with no sign of anything picking up....

I definitely want short term results.


a month or so on and the price settled around the 70 cent mark

Is this the level from where the price will fall when the next lot of bad news comes out?

Wouldn't want the official result to be much different then idicated would we ..... a few months to wait

temuk
02-07-2007, 01:15 PM
Check the asks

65000@ 72 cents then jumps to 80 cents !!

temuk
13-07-2007, 11:03 AM
what is happening to share price?

winner69
13-07-2007, 11:13 AM
quote:Originally posted by temuk

what is happening to share price?



.... its going down ... I think

Bling_Bling
13-07-2007, 03:46 PM
I wonder how the Toddy Family is feeling buying nearly 20% at over 90 cents? Pretty pissed off or an opportunity for them to take out the entire company if the price is right?

Balance
13-07-2007, 05:10 PM
Todds bought most of their shares at $1.00 actually. How are they feeling? I guess a bit like when they bought Metlife at $2.38 and the shares later fell to $0.95 cents. Then, they sold out at over $7.00 a few years later. Same with Sky TV.

Cannot see them buying more shares however as it's not their style.

ratkin
13-07-2007, 05:32 PM
Its peanuts for them , just like any investor they have big wins and a few loses. So what i they get this one wrong, they have made some stunning gains on some other stocks

warthog
13-07-2007, 06:16 PM
Bling - depends on your timeframe.

Bling_Bling
14-07-2007, 08:00 AM
I can afford to buy and hold for long term gains. Was just wondering if I should buy more shares when the SP bottoms.

warthog
14-07-2007, 01:24 PM
All the hog is saying is that if you're trading from day to day, then a SP movement from $0.90 to$0.70 is a disaster. If your timeframe is much longer term, then it is only a bit irritating to know how it worked out (buy at $0.90, current SP $0.70) but that's all - because you're not selling right now.

winner69
10-08-2007, 01:04 PM
All the hog is saying is that if you're trading from day to day, then a SP movement from $0.90 to$0.70 is a disaster. If your timeframe is much longer term, then it is only a bit irritating to know how it worked out (buy at $0.90, current SP $0.70) but that's all - because you're not selling right now.

If 70 cents is a bit irritating whats 58 cents?

Doesn't seem to be any bottom here bling bling

warthog
10-08-2007, 04:36 PM
If 70 cents is a bit irritating whats 58 cents?


More irritating.

disc: no PVO (never held)

upside_umop
10-08-2007, 04:49 PM
it is irritating me...but what can you do apart from pull out at a loss. i'd rather just put them away.

tobo
12-08-2007, 09:02 PM
I'll tell what's more irritating - getting stopped out at 55c.

Lizard
24-08-2007, 03:54 PM
Congratulations to PVO for making the full set of FY accounts available on their web-site with their results announcement. :)

However, I would be interested if anyone can put forward a good case for investing in this business. I find it hard to believe that a company with $171m in revenue is unable to produce even a small profit in a strong economy. Blame the exchange rate if you will, but it seems from the segmental result that the losses were allocated against the New Zealand business.

Even at an EBITDA level, the return on invested capital is pathetic, while with receivables and prepayments sitting at $43.9m - over 3 months worth of revenue - working capital management seems rather lax.

With this kind of revenue, it is hardly an embryonic company that could be expecting to build up to a profit. So rabbiting on with vague positive outlook statements like this one, will hardly cut the mustard:

OUTLOOK
Chairman Mr Wolfenden said the board was confident in Provenco’s world class offerings and remained positive about the opportunities ahead.

“Our Vantex and Technology divisions continue to enjoy considerable opportunity. With confirmation of the Petronas and Sinopec contracts the prospects for the Retail Automation business continue to be excellent and Provenco’s challenge is to capitalise on those prospects.

“Despite the delays faced on a number of international contracts, we have maintained a high level of investment to preserve our ability to meet delivery requirements of future business, and maintain a strong foothold in internationally competitive markets.

“The Board is fully supportive of this approach and looks forward to growth over the coming years,” said Mr Wolfenden.


With $171m of revenue and unacceptable levels of return on investment, I think it's time they gave shareholders a serious presentation with some detail as to how exactly they intend to turn this into a profitable enterprise, rather than relying on the largesse of sophisticated shareholders to keep the cash topped up.

warthog
24-08-2007, 04:08 PM
it is irritating me...but what can you do apart from pull out at a loss. i'd rather just put them away.

Pull out at a loss, and when PVO starts trending up again, buy back in.

Better than just putting them away, unless you believe you can pick the bottom AND you have some Delphic-like knowledge that the SP isn't going to struggle for the foreseeable future.

ratkin
24-08-2007, 04:10 PM
Usual rubbish , they and similar companies always like to point out these "contract wins" in asian countries and usually rehash the news a few times. Next there will be vague talk of partnerships in china or some other airy fairy stuff.

Check out their last results announcement , was very similar to this one in terms of outlook etc, all that has changed is that the price has moved from 1.10 down to 70c, meanwhile the outlook is positive as usual without much actually being achieved

Lizard
24-08-2007, 04:27 PM
Pull out at a loss, and when PVO starts trending up again, buy back in.

Better than just putting them away, unless you believe you can pick the bottom AND you have some Delphic-like knowledge that the SP isn't going to struggle for the foreseeable future.

Warthog, what do you see in the business that would make you want to buy in if it DID happen to start trending up? Trends without any fundamental arguments can tend to be pretty fickle imo.

At the moment, they appear to be destroying value - they need about $14m NPBIT ($7.6m NPAT) to get even a bare minimum acceptable return on that asset value. The most positive thing I could find in there is the price/sales ratio, and even that is not startlingly low. Is there some factor which you would see is likely to change the growth rate, margins or return on invested capital?

hairdresser
24-08-2007, 04:46 PM
Notes on the result
1. The contract win was a rollover probably at a lower price, described decpetively to look as if it was a new contract [ie as a reasonable person when I saw the statement I thought they were refrring to a new contract, it took me 3 reads to work out it was essentially a continuation of the same contract].
2. The management team have already indicated to the market they have no idea how to run the business profitably with their comments around their previous couple of earnings reductions.
3. They are recylcing some of the annoucements they have already made.
4. They appear to have no plan to restore profitability.

It's almost unbelievable how badly they have done.

Disc: I held these from 26c to 110c plus a few dividend cheques along the way. I even switched all our terminals over to PVO. They used to earn around 14cps EBITDA now its 3.5cps. IMO this is their most significant achievement.


Good luck to all holders, they may merge with CTL who are appear to be just as compentent.

ratkin
24-08-2007, 05:22 PM
NZ was one of the most advanced in the world at cashless transactions , we have become so used to using eftpos that we forget that in most countries such as britain they are only now adopting this sort of stuff en mass.
Despite this wonderful opportunity , head start and great technology the company has still managed to screw it all up , even now after all this time they cant even turn over a profit.

Now its too late , the rest of the world has caught up , competitition has increased and they have totally ruined their first mover advantage. Incredible really.

These have been my worst investment in recent times , bought at 1.00 when Todd was building a holding , wrongly believing he knew what he was doing , ended up bailing out at 70cents when i realised they were totally incompetent . It was my worst investment because i should have known better, its not the sort of company i normally invest in , was silly enough to follow the so called smart money.

At least i wont be following that so called smart money down the khazi , because thats where this company is heading

Lizard
24-08-2007, 05:47 PM
It has seemed like some very astute people have liked the company enough to invest. That's why I'm sitting here scratching my head over it and interested if anyone could shed some light. Any positive views out there?

warthog
24-08-2007, 06:12 PM
was silly enough to follow the so called smart money.

Worthy of note that as Todd et al were buying in, other players were cashing out.

Smary money in. Smart money out.

So if you're following smart money, you get to call which smart money is smarter.

Investments are made with different horizons. Some investment - at one end of the scale - is made with a 50-year time-frame. Todd Capital have a longer-term vision than most, but that doesn't make them untouchable of course!

lakeys
24-08-2007, 06:47 PM
sorry i thought Todd brought new shares at a premium to the market at the time $1??

biker
24-08-2007, 07:39 PM
Worthy of note that as Todd et al were buying in, other players were cashing out.

Smary money in. Smart money out.

So if you're following smart money, you get to call which smart money is smarter.

Investments are made with different horizons. Some investment - at one end of the scale - is made with a 50-year time-frame. Todd Capital have a longer-term vision than most, but that doesn't make them untouchable of course!

This was a case of smart/dumb money in only.


Company Announcements




Provenco Group Limited - Announcements




PVO
21/11/2006
PLACE

REL: 1449 HRS Provenco Group Limited

PLACE: PVO: Shares issued to strategic investor - Todd Capital

Provenco issues shares to strategic investor - Todd Capital

Listed technology company Provenco today issued 18 million fully paid new
shares to Todd Capital for $17.28 million.

Provenco chairman David Wolfenden said that Provenco was delighted that Todd
Capital had decided to invest.

"Provenco is continuing to expand and to realise this growth requires
additional equity funding. Todd Capital is a highly respected New Zealand
investor with a very sound track record. It is supportive of our long term
objectives and has expressed a determination to support the company. This
placement provides the funding for continued organic and acquisitive growth
within the Provenco group" he said.

The issue price for the 18 million shares is 96 cents per share, which is a
premium to yesterday's closing price of 92 cents. The total consideration is
$17.28 million and is payable immediately. The shares issued represent 12.9%
of the total shares on issue immediately following the placement. Todd
Capital will be granted board representation, following the placement.

Todd Capital's managing director, Robert Bryden said that Provenco is a good
business with an exciting future.

"We have been following the progress of Provenco for some time. We see the
group as highly focused and well managed with excellent prospects in the
markets in which it operates. Provenco fits the profile of the companies that
we like to invest in. Our intention is to be an investor that can add value
and provide support over the longer term, he said. :rolleyes:

ratkin
24-08-2007, 08:38 PM
"We have been following the progress of Provenco for some time. We see the
group as highly focused and well managed with excellent prospects in the
markets in which it operates. Provenco fits the profile of the companies that
we like to invest in. Our intention is to be an investor that can add value
and provide support over the longer term, he said. :rolleyes:

Sounded very good at the time , had me fooled anyway

warthog
24-08-2007, 09:02 PM
The smart Maire money was replaced by Todd Capital's dumb money.

Year of the Tiger
24-08-2007, 09:32 PM
It has seemed like some very astute people have liked the company enough to invest. That's why I'm sitting here scratching my head over it and interested if anyone could shed some light. Any positive views out there?

I bought into PVO in June last year at .89c. In August I bought a few more at .85c. At the time, I liked what I was hearing but I was starting to get a few doubts come February this year. Much against my long term hold strategy I decided to bail out at $1.03. I can see now I was one lucky lassie...

It's pretty hard to explain my reasoning. I don't study the financials of a company too much, or get too involved in the TA side of things. I really looked at what their business is, looked at what progress they seemed to be making in an ever increasing competitive market and could only see that they were just marking time. I felt then that I couldn't see much future here (for my shares anyway) and decided to bail.

I guess it was a good decision at the time.

Cheers
YOTT

Scuffer
24-08-2007, 10:54 PM
I was also lucky on this one I bought in and got out with a profit and they paid me a divi not too sure I should still be in CTL though

warthog
25-08-2007, 06:57 AM
Warthog, what do you see in the business that would make you want to buy in if it DID happen to start trending up? Trends without any fundamental arguments can tend to be pretty fickle imo.

At the moment, they appear to be destroying value - they need about $14m NPBIT ($7.6m NPAT) to get even a bare minimum acceptable return on that asset value. The most positive thing I could find in there is the price/sales ratio, and even that is not startlingly low. Is there some factor which you would see is likely to change the growth rate, margins or return on invested capital?

If the hog was looking for signs in the business that would make it attractive it would have to be sustained success on the new business front coupled with a tighter reign on costs and more of an emphasis on doing things better (more efficiently). If their technology doesn't produce the margins then they need to ask themselves if there is a better way.

Lizard
25-08-2007, 07:15 AM
Exactly Warthog. One look at the accounts just makes me yearn to tidy up and put their toys away!

Trouble is, even if tidied right now, current share price is probably not far off fair value. Meanwhile, if they don't tidy up and carry on in the same vein, that underlying "possible" value falls. As I see it, they would also need to demonstrate strong growth before there would be a fundamental driver for a long term uptrend. So small chance of a quick turnaround.

I hope I am wrong - the weakness in my analysis is that I only have a vague understanding of their markets and their strategy.

hairdresser
25-08-2007, 08:24 AM
Liz I think you will be able to buy in cheaper if you still want to.

Here ae some interesting ratios
Note
Equity ratio [E/TA] calcualted excluding Goodwill and Tax credits [which if I remember correctly were arguable].
Interest expense assuemd to be 1.3m for each 6 month period

12/06 6/07 Full year
ER% 30% 18%
EBITDA $8.1m -$3.8m $4.3m
Interst cover 6.2x -2.9x 1.65x

The lastest 6 month period appears to have been a shocker if they have another one like it they may need further recapitalisation.

Remember they raised $24m of new capital this year.

Lizard
25-08-2007, 08:32 AM
Agree Hairdresser.


Results from 2008 onwards will be prepared under the new international accounting standards and goodwill will then be subject to impairment testing under the new rules

I initially bought the implication that would mean higher reported profit. But in reality, if they are not turning a buck off those assets, some heavy impairment to that $36m of goodwill has to be more likely.

hairdresser
25-08-2007, 08:37 AM
Also you should be aware that a breach of banking covenants is not considered a matter requiring disclosure by the NZX.

winner69
25-08-2007, 08:43 AM
Also you should be aware that a breach of banking covenants is not considered a matter requiring disclosure by the NZX.


.... so Provenco Capital Notes holders should be a bit worried

foodee
25-08-2007, 09:30 AM
Also you should be aware that a breach of banking covenants is not considered a matter requiring disclosure by the NZX.

Does this mean the bank can direct the running of a co; IOW some form of 'unofficial administration'.

TIA

cheers

winner69
25-08-2007, 09:40 AM
I have had a morbid fascination with Advantage come Provenco since last century -- more so of just reminding me that hyped business models do not always deliver.

Even there have been changes in senior management and 'company direction' over time many of the board have been there for many years ... in particular chairman Wolfenden .... so to a large extent the current Provenco is not that different (culture wise) than the old Advantage

Never has a company hyped itself for so long without delivering. Quote from this piece from Gaynor in the Herald in December 2000

One of the most fascinating features of Advantage's roller-coaster ride has been the role of its aggressive public relations policy and the reaction of sharebroker analysts.

The company has published a huge amount of public relations material, most of it optimistic and short on detail.

Worth reading the whole article ..... nothing changed much has it ..... could change a few bits and put in a few names like Todd and publish the same story next week and prob be a true reflection of what Provenco is today

Lizard has pointed out some of the financials .... the pathetic performance of Provenco is reflected in their cash flow statements.

The new Provenco (since 'restructured' and 'refocused') has generated a pathetic amount of cash generated from operations - over the last 5 years they have collected $542M from customers but cumulative operating cash flows are only $2.9M (2007 operating cash flow was -$11.6M which wiped out the last 2 years cash flows but the most that Provenco has generated in one year has been $5.4M)

Another Lizard topic is these capitalised IP development costs - some $14M of cash has been spent on these (classified as investing cash so not included in the above numbers). If they were you can see that Provenco is still burning cash even though it has a significant revenue base.

Something wrong with their business model? - I think so - and suppose the morbid fascination I have with Provenco is from a business study perspective and trying to see what they are doing to fix a stuffed model.

it is their total inability to turn so many great things and opportunities into cash that amazes me

Enumerate
25-08-2007, 10:01 AM
The company has failed to make headway into China. The Petronas deal, recently announced, is little more than a low margin maintenance and support contract - the high margin development/installation contracts are over. The company claims to have a good relationship with Shell - remains to be seen. Even the Vantex and earlier Transtec(?) acquisitions are low margin businesses.

Nick Gordon has left the building - reducing his once substantial holding. Maybe he needs to prop up Zintel ... or at least pay for the flea bath.

Todds have been sold the pup and now have to decide what to do with it.

PVO should not be a public company. Todds should take it private and re-energise the business under the leadership of someone who understands that payments systems are about back-office integration and merchant services and NOT payments terminals.

Cadmus? There is room in the basket for this one, as well.

/Disclosure: Don't hold PVO

Lizard
25-08-2007, 10:04 AM
I have had a morbid fascination with Advantage come Provenco since last century...it is their total inability to turn so many great things and opportunities into cash that amazes me

I am so heartily with you on that Winner! Think I still have the glowing pre-tech wreck CSFB report on Advantage somewhere - sent me into fits of laughter at the time and the s.p. still managed to double before reality pushed it over the cliff.

Balance
25-08-2007, 11:03 AM
I don't think the Todds are fools, contrary to what some here may write or think. Their two other major investments, Metlife and Sky TV, in the sharemarket both followed the same sequence of events of:

1.Todds investing,
2.Share prices dropping sharply after they bought in,
3.Todds selling out several years later and making several hundred % returns.

The rich gets richer because they can get the best advice and analysis and they can effortlessly carry long term investments without worrying about short term price fluctuations. The poor sells at the bottom and buys at the top.

But then, this could be the one that the Todds stuff up?

kura
25-08-2007, 11:28 AM
I don't think the Todds are fools, contrary to what some here may write or think. Their two other major investments, Metlife and Sky TV, in the sharemarket both followed the same sequence of events of:

1.Todds investing,
2.Share prices dropping sharply after they bought in,
3.Todds selling out several years later and making several hundred % returns.

The rich gets richer because they can get the best advice and analysis and they can effortlessly carry long term investments without worrying about short term price fluctuations. The poor sells at the bottom and buys at the top.

But then, this could be the one that the Todds stuff up?

I recall them investing heavily in Bruce Judge's Ariadne etc, before they crashed !

hairdresser
25-08-2007, 11:46 AM
Todds are long on Woosh as well. Maybe tech just isnt their thing...

warthog
25-08-2007, 01:32 PM
Cadmus? There is room in the basket for this one, as well.


You think so Enumerate? Apart from being in the same sector, what do PVO and CTL have in common?

Well, the hog doesn't own any CTL but is looking at it closely.

As they say, "past performance is no guide to the future" ...

Balance
25-08-2007, 02:06 PM
I recall them investing heavily in Bruce Judge's Ariadne etc, before they crashed !

Correct, loss of over $100m with Judge Corp! Unlike others, they seemed to have learnt from their mistake and their wealth has grown year on year after that. Guess how much they made from Metlife and Sky TV?

As for Woosh, isn't it a bit like Sky TV? You burn cash until critical mass and then, you make a fortune. Strictly not for those who have faint hearts and shallow pockets!

Scuffer
27-08-2007, 03:25 PM
I think the rule is those with the money make the money, the Todds are no exception they have enough to make a company successful and turn around their initial loss.

kura
27-08-2007, 06:01 PM
Correct, loss of over $100m with Judge Corp! Unlike others, they seemed to have learnt from their mistake and their wealth has grown year on year after that. Guess how much they made from Metlife and Sky TV?

As for Woosh, isn't it a bit like Sky TV? You burn cash until critical mass and then, you make a fortune. Strictly not for those who have faint hearts and shallow pockets!

To be honest Balance, I think it is more a case of "they haven't given up trying" rather than "learning their lesson" hey, I've lost plenty myself in the past, but it don't put me off playing the game. I recall a story of my Grandad loosing his house in the 30's depression, and he vowed to never buy property again, so yep, he was pennyless when he died back in the 70's. All I was trying to say, is that the best (albeit expensive) advise that people like the Todd family can afford, is no gaurantee of success (everyone makes mistakes) I'm quite sure that a good investment plan was put to the Todds back when they invested with Bruce Judge, and no doubt it was independently reviewed.

Disc: I'm involved with a non profit organisation, and yes, we have also received grants from the Todd Foundation.

Enumerate
28-08-2007, 08:04 AM
As for Woosh, isn't it a bit like Sky TV? You burn cash until critical mass and then, you make a fortune. Strictly not for those who have faint hearts and shallow pockets!

Whoosh, the sound of money going down the toilet ... They are in the wrong sector, at the wrong time with the wrong technology. They might have brilliant backers - but sometimes it is easier pushing something down hill than up hill.

Provenco and Cadmus are both into electronic payments systems. They control the "channel" the EMV compliant terminal systems. ETSL controls the transaction "backbone". The banks, as franchise agents for Visa/MC/etc control the "accounts".

Who, in this eco system, will make the most money?

Is terminal technology much of a differentiator? There are probably 10 terminal manufacturers looking to sell their kit into NZ for every 1 manufacturer that is currently doing it. The exclusive agreements that these manufacturers negotiate and the barrier of the cost of establishing critical mass mean that, commercially, the market is sewn up.

We are nearing the "end game" for the great EMV capable terminal upgrade. If these companies are not racking it in, now, they never will.

What about POS integration with company back office systems? Yes, what about it ...

What about advanced merchant services? Yes, what about it ...

What about CNP transactions on the Internet? What about the threat from DPS?

Provenco and Cadmus look like low margin terminal suppliers, to me. This is the rump end of the payments space. It doesn't even look like these people have any ideas or plans to work their way up the value chain (beyond "lets go to China - were we can sell billions of terminals").

The old adage ... if you have a hammer, every problem looks like a nail ...applies. These are companies without a long term viable strategy. Todds have "screwed the pooch" on this one - unless they have some M&A rabbits in the hat. Maybe they have a future "vision" based on deep understanding of the payments space - I strongly doubt it. It is by no means to late to turn things around - but where is the vision, where is the leadership?

Dr_Who
28-08-2007, 09:40 AM
Interesting to see that CTL SP is holding up far better than PVO. Must be a vote of confidence in the management of CTL?

Enumerate
28-08-2007, 11:20 AM
Interesting to see that CTL SP is holding up far better than PVO. Must be a vote of confidence in the management of CTL?

CTL has been downtrending since early 2005 - PVO has been downtrending since early 2007.

Using the phrase "vote of confidence" in reference to the management capabilities of either company would be extremely ill advised.

Again, if they are not making heaps, now - at the peak of the EMV replacement cycle - they will never have a better opportunity. In one year - the replacement market will be dead.

We have this fond illusion, in NZ, that we are somehow global leaders in electronic payments systems. On the basis of this, we propose that asian markets, in particular, are primed to rapidly adopt our particular payments solutions. This premise and conclusion need to be examined very carefully.

Good luck to CTL and PVO holders. I do not hold either.

Dr_Who
28-08-2007, 11:31 AM
Thanks for your views Emumerate. I bought my PVO around $1. :mad::confused: Lucky it is only a very small holding in my portfolio.

stephen
29-08-2007, 09:59 AM
"Is terminal technology much of a differentiator? There are probably 10 terminal manufacturers looking to sell their kit into NZ for every 1 manufacturer that is currently doing it. The exclusive agreements that these manufacturers negotiate and the barrier of the cost of establishing critical mass mean that, commercially, the market is sewn up."

That is exactly right, enumerate. What they are doing is now essentially a commodity in the IT world.

Also they may be carrying a lot of capitalised software development effort on their books. Now I would ask myself, can that software be sold? If so for what valuation? Or do they derive an income stream from using that software? What's the value of that income? I don't see any approach that really justifies treating development costs as an asset.

Ted2
15-10-2007, 04:34 PM
Strange going's on!! Up 6c today. Not big volume so you can't make too much out of it but still very odd. Maybe a small tipsheet said climb in?

Dr_Who
16-10-2007, 08:00 AM
Strange going's on!! Up 6c today. Not big volume so you can't make too much out of it but still very odd. Maybe a small tipsheet said climb in?

Odd day, all my 2nd tier stocks sp went up today. Nice to see all positive. :)

What I dont understand is why CTL sp moving up.

upside_umop
16-10-2007, 08:04 AM
maybe merger talks are on again between pvo and ctl...
as said above, small volume though and depth looks shallow in pvo.