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Lizard
10-08-2005, 02:02 PM
Engineering consultants, growing rapidly by acquisition. 2004 IPO ($1/share) to fund growth. 2002 revenue of $20.5m, but pro-forma after latest acquisition (which doubled revenues) gives revenue over $160m for 2005. Dividend payout policy of 70-85% of earnings. Although the sp has risen steadily to $3.16, this still seems reasonable value, as based on pro-forma figures, P/E is 14.8. Even without allowing for any earnings growth, this would put net yield at 5.1-6.3% for the 2006 year.

Charts may indicate another run.

Risks - people based business, and reliant on "name" so relies heavily on good management. Low NTA, so business can grow quickly, but also evaporate quickly. Not overly liquid, as management hold a large portion of the shares and many of them are escrowed.

Discl: Bought last month @ $2.80

mark100
10-08-2005, 02:22 PM
I also hold cdd and cddg. I used to work for one of their competitors. There is plenty of work on for engineering consultants at the moment. The main contraints are now proving to be lack of staff and wage pressures. There are just not enough graduates to satsify demand. The company I used to work for was recruiting engineers from South Africa. The main problem is the work is so boring and pays bad so people like me quit and trade shares instead!

cheers
Mark

Lizard
10-08-2005, 05:50 PM
Hi Mark. Didn't think I'd find another holder on ST! Nice stock so far.

Would be interested in your comments as to whether or not there are any scale advantages for this type of business, or whether getting too big is more likely to become a hindrance?

mark100
18-08-2005, 11:44 AM
Hi Lizard,

I wouldn't say there are any large scale advantages in taking over other small consultancies. There are no head offices etc that can be closed down.

The main benefit is increased diversification. The Eppell Olsen acquisition gives Cardno an expertise in Traffic Engineering/modelling that they didn't have before. Also, as these private businesses are being acquired at EBIT multiples of around 5, they are immediately EPS positive for Cardno.

ABN Amro has this to say last week:

"CARDNO (CDD) BUY

CDD continued its growth via its specialist acquisition strategy. We see no reason why this strategy may not successfully continue as its largest competitor still only has a market share of around 8%. Our FY06 and FY07 NPAT forecasts have increased by approximately 30% following both acquisitions.

Consequently, our DCF valuation has increased to A$3.52 from (A $3.10). We consider our 8% revenue growth forecast for FY06 to be very achievable. With renewed investor confidence, our target price now equates to our A $3.52 DCF valuation. We believe that an FY06 PE multiple of 11x for a relationship based consulting service is particularly cheap relative to peers. Downside risk primarily
surrounds key staff retention. However, CDD’s ever expanding size may
mitigate this risk to some extent. We believe upside risk to earnings far more likely with further acquisitions at around 5x earnings."

Cheers
Mark

Lizard
18-08-2005, 02:32 PM
Thanks Mark. Was wondering what was driving the sp over the last couple of weeks - particularly given the result has been well flagged. Have to say, my valuation is a little north of ABN Amro's though....:)

OldRider
18-08-2005, 03:09 PM
I don't have any CDD, but I like it and the sector, have held WOR for some time. This company has done well so I have remained with it.

Took an interest in FCO for a while but didn't buy
as well as COF and Lycopodium, if I recall COF might have an offer out for FCO.

To me a profitable sector of the market, with some way to go yet hopefully.

Lizard
23-08-2005, 09:33 PM
Result looked good today. Finished another 7% up on the May forecast (which was 40% up on the December forecast, which was 20% up on the previous forecast...). Dividend at 8 cps was 2 cps higher than foreshadowed in earlier statements. s.p. now $3.40, but might just consolidate there for a short while.

Lizard
26-08-2005, 03:53 PM
Well so much for the consolidation...just took a quick breath and carried on. $3.65 and humming...

Lizard
13-09-2005, 06:43 PM
Okay - try again. Breather at $4.24?

Must be a good share - talking to myself again.[:p]

robbo
14-09-2005, 09:45 AM
Cardno CDD

Go Lizzard !! [:p]

Not personally on Cardno, (CDD) but Agree with you that Cardno (CDD) is a Goodie, IMO.

Massive Increase in Revenue from Last year heh?? -- My quick calcs say 500% PLUS...

And Profit Margin is a very respectable > 10%...

Price Earnings(PE) for Cardno (CDD) is now seemingly approaching a PE of 21; with a Peer Industry Average in the low 12's... but heh, again... what Can I say... this Stock is Better than its peers on the KPI s in my view .....

This Stock has Increased in Share Price north of 144%, in the past 12 months... and the Return on Capital (ROE) went up a whopping 32% from the Previous Year.... to as current ROE of 45% ... Excellent.

Tight Share Register of 36 millions shares... and a very Healthy Dividend Yield of 4.17% from memory.....??....

Yes, it could re --trace a bit, but not too long after, every possibility they will do north of $5.00 perhaps...

Deserve to Lizzard , IMO... anyway !

By the way, what do Cardno actually do for a living ??

Something to do with Engineering Consulting, or was it Engineering Software ???? ,===that has a cure name and even sounds like Microsort XP, but is an Engineering proprietarty model -- was it XP ?? something ??-- or somne such...????.. Or am I way off Beam??

Have to read your posts more in future Lizzard, coz this one went straight UNDER my Radar !!... [}:)][}:)]

Bugger...

All power to you though Lizzard.

This could we be one of those that in a Year or So, is north of $10.00, presumably then, they will do a Stock Split...??

Another Mondalephous(MND) hopefully.... eh what !!

Kind Regards and, Well Researched, Spotted and Done...,

Robbo :)

Lizard
14-09-2005, 01:44 PM
Hi Robbo :)

Bang on with your analysis. And yes, they are Engineering Consultants, with XP Software for engineering.

Have run up rather more quickly than I expected. Early days, but looking forward I'm estimating FY 06 NPAT at $11m. So forward P/E of 14 at this price. However, I think the growth potential for this business could be pretty good going forward as high ROE's and relatively small capital required for expansion, so my 12 month target is $5.54. Dividend - at least 20cps at that NPAT, so would give net yield at least 4.7%.

Probably past being a great buying opportunity for now, but might still be worth picking up on weakness.

Cheers,

Lizard
23-11-2005, 11:00 AM
Well CDD took that breather at $4.24 - then went back to pick up my earlier call at $3.40 (well spiked down to $3.36 to be precise). Now back at $3.53 and could be ready to start another run.

They announced a large contract win by ACIL this morning, worth $4m, which may see it break the short term downtrend and begin the next run up.

Lizard
26-11-2005, 08:13 AM
Ran up to $3.90 on that news so far.

Lizard
04-02-2006, 09:49 PM
Profit upgrade for CDD last week and a new high of $4.40 for the sp.

Looking through the numbers on that upgrade in more detail. Equates to profit forecast of $10.4 - $10.9m for Jun 06 year. However, given there's still some months to run, quite likely they are taking a conservative view at this stage and possible we get another upgrade in May/June. I was allowing for $11m, so looks like they're on track. At current price of $4.35, this gives a P/E of 16.5.

Dividend policy is to pay 70-85% of profit. This is a great cashflow business, so I expect we see total 2006 divi of 20cps or net 4.6% yield. My conservative valuation is currently $4.85, but could be some upside.

Lizard
16-05-2006, 05:47 PM
Now $4.80, so sitting up close to my earlier valuation of $4.85.

New contract yesterday for management of $88m of work for AusAID to provide education facilities in Indonesia. Has settled down to a more steady performer, but certainly seems worth hanging on to see how the full year result turns out.

Lizard
31-05-2006, 04:54 PM
Tested my nerve with the pullback to $4.11, but has come through with the profit upgrade I was expecting in May - forecast $12 - $12.5m. Forward P/E around 15, though comes with some future dilution from convertible notes. If they stick with the dividend policy, should be at least a 11.5cps final dividend (total 20.5cps for the year). My current valuation is $5.25.

Lizard
22-08-2006, 01:26 PM
Result just out. Slightly ahead of their forecast range at $12.7m NPAT. Dividend a conservative 10cps. Outlook for continued growth. At current price of $4.50, gives current P/E of 14.3 and net yield of 4.2%.

robbo
22-08-2006, 05:03 PM
Cardno (CDD)

Good Going and great Result for Cardno (CDD) Liz.

Well researched, and a great set of results for you here Liz.Excellent. [^]

(CDD), does Now looks very undervalued, and the foundation, imo, seems v. good for future growth as well.

Good stuff Liz !! And very well picked and probably even, more importantly ..... well Patiently held ...:);)

Kindest Regards,

Robbo :)

Lizard
22-08-2006, 09:11 PM
Closer look, suggests pretty much all the growth came from acquisitions, so they may need to keep up the acquisition rate to continue eps growth. Especially as there were a significant number of convertible notes converted post balance date and 7.5m more which could be converted before July 2008.

My calculations suggest a target NPAT of $15-$17m for 2007. Allowing for recently converted notes, gives a forward P/E of around 13.2 (using s.p = $4.50). If the remaining 7.5m are also converted, would bring P/E up to 15.3. (Some reduction in interest cost might help to bring that down).

So although I like CDD, the eps/dps growth could be a little subdued which might keep the share price from racing away. Then again, still looks reasonable value, so in the vicinity of 25% return for the coming year would be my best guess at this point.

(Thanks for the kind words Robbo)

Lizard
19-10-2006, 02:27 PM
CDD gathering steam to take on that $5 level. Might be a decent run in it.

robbo
19-10-2006, 02:59 PM
Cardno (CC)

That second last post of yours was v.interesting; and of course a fundantal 'value anlaysis question'-- Liz....:)

.....to paraphrase what you wrote Liz, : "ie: most of the e.p.s. growth (for (CCC) came from.... aquisitions...."...

Of course,sure you might agree Liz, that when companies make 'good acquisitions', us investors want to see synergy;..... Namely where the 'whole' is greater than the 'sum of the parts'....-- or put more simply: where 2 + 2 = at least 5. ...

Then the issues are 'how long' is reasonable for that 'synergy benefit'-- to occur-- and what has the scaleability and Return ON Equity (ROE) ---increase been; now and into the future; to assess whether it was all worth the effort....

Big Topic this one. But a veeery, imo, relevant one.:)

Got me stimmulated... again, Liz !:)

Regards,

Robbo :)

contrarianinvestor
19-10-2006, 07:52 PM
quote:Originally posted by mark100

I also hold cdd and cddg. I used to work for one of their competitors. There is plenty of work on for engineering consultants at the moment. The main contraints are now proving to be lack of staff and wage pressures. There are just not enough graduates to satsify demand. The company I used to work for was recruiting engineers from South Africa. The main problem is the work is so boring and pays bad so people like me quit and trade shares instead!

Same here. . . went through the pain of studying a four year engineering degree just to end up making more money trading shares!

Lizard
30-10-2006, 05:13 PM
quote:Originally posted by Lizard

CDD gathering steam to take on that $5 level. Might be a decent run in it.


Closed today at $5.39 today.

Sorry Robbo. Could not understand what you were trying to say there.

Lizard
05-01-2007, 04:40 PM
Cardno has been poised at $5.50 for a few weeks - went for the break out today, with okay volume going through at $5.90 before falling back to $5.70.

On fundamentals - I'm uncertain as to potential NPAT for the coming year, so it remains a bit of a risk. Hasn't reached my "sell" price yet though so happy to hold until HY result.

Lizard
07-02-2007, 06:06 PM
Broke $6 today. Starting to look expensive here by my calcs, but I'm willing to wait and see what the next result brings.

Lizard
20-02-2007, 02:40 PM
Well after fighting the temptation to sell for a little longer, I have exited today on the result.

Half year profit came in at $8.3m, up 16.4% and the indication of less seasonality suggests the full year percentage will be higher. While I like the company and they are producing good growth, I think the market have priced in more growth than they are achieving. In addition, some of the growth is being diluted away by share issues made as part of acquisitions.

I think there are probably better opportunities elsewhere.

Lizard
21-08-2007, 01:50 PM
Good full year result for Cardno, with NPAT of $18.47m (including a near $1m tax credit), up 46% on prior year. On a fully diluted eps basis, earnings up 31%. At current s.p. of $7.19, P/E of 19.8. Dividend increased to give full year dividend of 22.5cps, yield of 3.1%.

I no longer hold, but result was slightly ahead of my expectations. Good company, but the growth by acquisition strategy is less appealing in a downturn (if it eventuates). So is having a labour force as the main asset.

mark100
06-05-2009, 03:04 AM
Cardno's chart has been slow to move up but its gradually starting to happen.

Gearing is low, business is consulting engineering so not as likely to have large cost blowouts on jobs like the construction plays plus less capex intensive. Earnings multiple is undemanding at around 6-7x consensus for 2009 and 2010.

macduffy
06-05-2009, 07:44 AM
Just by the way, Cardno has a branch in NZ, well, Wellington at least where it operates under the name of Cardno TCB. Cardno took over the Johnsonville based business of Truebridge Callander Beach in 2007.

Dr_Who
06-05-2009, 09:21 AM
This looks like an interesting little company.

I would like to read more into it. Can you provide and further info? Maybe some research report?

macduffy
06-05-2009, 09:54 AM
I've never seen a broker's report on CDD but there is a lot of info on their website including a HongKong roadshow presentation, admittedly a bit old now (July2008) and half year results to 31 Dec 2008.
CDD have grown rapidly by acquisition but still only 77m shares on issue.
Made a SPP issue recently at $2-70, latest price $3-29 so it looks like that has been absorbed satisfactorily.
Historic P/E 7.1, Yield 8.5%.

Looks like they have 5 or 6 NZ offices - a small part of the business.

Disc: Don't hold but interested.

mark100
06-05-2009, 09:56 AM
This looks like an interesting little company.

I would like to read more into it. Can you provide and further info? Maybe some research report?

A couple of recent reports attached

Dr_Who
06-05-2009, 10:44 AM
Thanks for the info.

I will do some reading this week when I get time.

Will buy some if I like the story. :)

Lizard
29-11-2009, 09:42 AM
Just caught up with CDD's report and was sorry not to have got back into them during market weakness. This is one company that has managed to continue the acquisition/expansion model without overly-diluting existing holders.

I'm not sure the easy-growth is there for them from here, but they are in a solid position to take advantage of any competitor weakness. Still, at this price, I'd want to have a better indication of FY10, particularly given the possibility of a weak first half spooking investors.

Lizard
01-12-2009, 03:58 PM
Still, at this price, I'd want to have a better indication of FY10, particularly given the possibility of a weak first half spooking investors.

Just released a forecast for that weak first half they'd implied earlier - $14m-$16m NPAT c.f. last year at $18.3m. Seems likely to be just a dip before the next wave of (stimulus money) work hits, so could be a buying opportunity when it finds some support.

soulman
01-12-2009, 05:06 PM
Just released a forecast for that weak first half they'd implied earlier - $14m-$16m NPAT c.f. last year at $18.3m. Seems likely to be just a dip before the next wave of (stimulus money) work hits, so could be a buying opportunity when it finds some support.

I'm afraid this is in a confirm down trend Lizard. Although $4 seems like good eating and the likely support.

Lizard
17-08-2010, 09:45 PM
Still watching CDD. They're sitting just under that $4 mark.

Solid result out today, though in the current market, I'd like to see them cheaper. Should be some growth to come through from acquisitions in the next year, so would expect them to be reasonably supported. Still hard to be certain re buying into any business that relies on large capital projects at present, though I think CDD are in some okay sectors.

OldRider
18-08-2010, 07:00 AM
I have held Cardno for some time, good dividend return, they have had two SPP's & a rights issue in the last four years,
I took part in recent rights issue @ $3.25, applying for 50% more than allocation
and was surprised to get them, so a nice bonus.

For the most part, looking for companies allowing for these top up applications in rights issues
has proved to be a worthwhile earner. Coote - CXG was another.

Huang Chung
14-01-2011, 10:05 PM
CDD closed at $6.00 today.

Everything appears to be going swimmingly for CDD. Check out the attached presentation:

http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=CDD&E=ASX&N=226050

There will undoubtedly be a mountain of engineering and environmental consultancy work coming out of the Qld floods. Cardno is Brisbane based, which certainly won't hurt their prospects.



Disc: Holding.

OldRider
15-01-2011, 07:01 AM
Still holding, IRR 15.3% over 5 years and 5 additions to original purchase,dividend return probably going to be
over 5% at present price, was over 9% in 09 year.

Huang Chung
15-01-2011, 09:20 AM
Yeah, 29c of divvies last year....probably 30-31c this year....ie at or just over 5% FF at the current share price.

mark100
10-07-2012, 07:25 PM
I would be wary of engineering consultants at the moment. GHD has been laying off staff and discounting their rates Aust wide. CDD might try and cover for this with more acquisitions but I just can't see any organic growth in the Australian market at the moment. FY13 could be a bit tougher.

mark100
10-07-2012, 11:10 PM
Yes I know they are global, their revenue split is probably similar to GHD (total revenue also similar to GHD). But Aust is still a large part of their revenue and if things are slow here I can't see things being much better overseas. Just a note of caution for a stock that doesn't appear 'cheap' at the moment

mark100
21-11-2012, 01:33 AM
And so it comes to pass...down 19% on an ordinary forecast. And things have not picked up for engineering consultants. It is still getting worse. Lots of employees with not much to do, so they are charging more time do the few jobs they have which means margins on each job get squeezed

soulman
21-11-2012, 06:27 AM
And so it comes to pass...down 19% on an ordinary forecast. And things have not picked up for engineering consultants. It is still getting worse. Lots of employees with not much to do, so they are charging more time do the few jobs they have which means margins on each job get squeezed

Interestingly Mark, MND is going great guns, although they are not a consulting business. Maybe a brand name like Monadelphous is key in winning and retaining project.

mark100
21-11-2012, 08:54 AM
soulman, consultants do a lot of design and pre-construction reports / studies etc. So in my view they can be a leading indicator of construction activity

Huang Chung
29-05-2013, 07:07 AM
Grabbed some CDD at $5.31 late last week, for much the same reason I picked up ALQ a few days earlier.

My theisis is that CDD (like ALQ) is being treated by the market as a mining services stock, and whilst that is partly true, they are quite well diversified, with the largest part of their business now in the United States!

Call it a case of throwing the baby out with the bath water if you want.

Huang Chung
29-05-2013, 04:26 PM
I'll have a look KW.

ALQ having a very strong day today, and CDD is also doing a little better.

Huang Chung
03-06-2013, 01:41 PM
Strange day for a breakout given the negative lead from the US, but that seems to be what's happening to CDD today.

macduffy
03-06-2013, 04:09 PM
May be coincidence but Simon Bond of RBS Morgans is recommending it as a Buy, according to "The Bull" today:

"The relatively smaller profit impact from a rapidly deteriorating Australian mining sector highlights CDD’s diversity. It appears to have been caught up in the indiscriminate “mining service” sell-off. A potential value opportunity exists. CDD remains positively leveraged to improving US economic conditions and a more positive post Australian election environment."

Huang Chung
03-06-2013, 04:30 PM
Couldn't have said it better myself, lol....

mark100
21-11-2014, 11:27 AM
Another downgrade. Consulting Engineering sector is still in very poor shape in Aust from what I hear. CDD have done a lot of acquisitions but NPAT still falls. Wouldn't be surprised to see a writedown at some stage. At least they aren't heavily indebted

dingoNZ
21-11-2014, 12:03 PM
Milford's Dynamic fund have a 6% stake in this, ouch!

blackcap
21-11-2014, 12:15 PM
Another downgrade. Consulting Engineering sector is still in very poor shape in Aust from what I hear. CDD have done a lot of acquisitions but NPAT still falls. Wouldn't be surprised to see a writedown at some stage. At least they aren't heavily indebted

That bit about not being indebted heavily makes me think its time to pick up a few more of these at depressed prices. Still making profits too and nicely diversified.

blackcap
13-02-2015, 02:41 PM
I have picked up a few of these at an average price of $3.
One of the few companies to maintain and grow earnings through the GFC.
Now that the CEO has been unceremoniously dumped by the board there is a big question mark over their ability to grow.
The market is however pricing in a significant earnings decline from recent years due to the tough conditions in resources. CDD is well diversified although they may be regretting their recent move into US shale.
Hopefully the last guidance of 60m profit is achieved, even a reduced dividend of 30c a share would be an offensively large dividend yield. Little bit nervous as to whether the profit can be maintained or if a big writedown of intangibles (goodwill) is coming up.
Still I bought those intangibles for less than the value on the books so easy come easy go.
Maybe the lizzard and a few other value investors are getting interested in this one along with blackcap.

Funnily enough I bought some CDDKOC on my trading account today. Highly leveraged instrument but with the potential for large gains in the future. Even with a 30c dividend this will provide a huge yeild. A long term play but I cannot see a company of this quality staying depressed for a long period of time. The shorts in Australia will have fun while they can but at some stage will also have to buy back. Hopefully north of $4 by Christmas.

babymonster
13-02-2015, 05:34 PM
Put an order at 2.78 after lunch. Didn't get it. Let's hope for Monday

DarkHorse
14-02-2015, 08:40 PM
I have picked up a few of these at an average price of $3.
One of the few companies to maintain and grow earnings through the GFC.
Now that the CEO has been unceremoniously dumped by the board there is a big question mark over their ability to grow.
The market is however pricing in a significant earnings decline from recent years due to the tough conditions in resources. CDD is well diversified although they may be regretting their recent move into US shale.
Hopefully the last guidance of 60m profit is achieved, even a reduced dividend of 30c a share would be an offensively large dividend yield. Little bit nervous as to whether the profit can be maintained or if a big writedown of intangibles (goodwill) is coming up.
Still I bought those intangibles for less than the value on the books so easy come easy go.
Maybe the lizzard and a few other value investors are getting interested in this one along with blackcap.

Thanks for reminding me of them PSE. I sold out at $6.40 last June after several years as a happy holder. I see there was a lot of insider buying over $3 by several directors early December, and long term holder Invesco has acquired a couple of million more shares in the last couple of months. Given their diversification, low debt, strong cashflows and dividends they look a fairly low risk bet on any rebound in oil or mining...

Will await half year profit results and accompanying commentary due out on Monday with great interest :)

babymonster
15-02-2015, 02:13 PM
I thought the HY report is due on Tuesday. 17 th.

DarkHorse
15-02-2015, 09:50 PM
I thought the HY report is due on Tuesday. 17 th.
Whoops - yes the 17th is Tuesday!

Joshuatree
17-02-2015, 10:46 AM
Ebitda down 15%
NPAT down 27% to 2011 level
Div down 31%
Outlook challenging
I hold a few COF (bottom fishing)

Joshuatree
17-02-2015, 11:43 AM
CDD up 2c atm , COF is a smaller version of CDD basically, Worth alook if you're in for a while and believe the bottom is near(risky).

DarkHorse
17-02-2015, 09:43 PM
NPAT result was at the upper end of guidance. Look a bit undervalued but I'm in no hurry to reinvest until there are signs of an upturn. Although mining related activity is not a large portion of their work it offered higher margins, the unfortunately timed oil related acquisition is likely to face margin squeeze over next 12 months...and in a cost-cutting focused corporate and govt environment engineering consultants are not well-placed

blackcap
18-09-2015, 03:55 PM
I have decided I will hang on rather than sell to Crescent. I wish them well with their efforts to reduce corporate costs but the offer price is too low for me to be interested, they would be getting control for a song.
HI, Im going to give them half of mine for $3.15 and then buy back again when the price drops back to $2.60. Do you think the price will drop back? Bit of a gamble but I think its worth it.

PSE
18-09-2015, 04:16 PM
$3.15 would be a nice profit for me especially over a period when the market has declined but I think it is well short of what the company could be worth in a number of years.

blackcap
18-09-2015, 04:39 PM
$3.15 would be a nice profit for me especially over a period when the market has declined but I think it is well short of what the company could be worth in a number of years.

Yes I bought some at about $2.60 a while back so not too worried. I am not sure what the market is saying though with CDD now at 2.92 because if you can get $3.15 for half of them....... maybe the market is saying that the share price will fall back again so in a way if you are a holder with a long term view its a good idea to sell at the $3.15. Alternatively you can buy now, sell half and hope that the price tracks up with new owners. Might have to do some thinking over the weekend.

blackcap
18-09-2015, 09:42 PM
Another holder's view for your weekend thinking blackcap, halfway down they talk about the offer.
https://www.firstsamuel.com.au/what-are-you-looking-for/wry-and-dry/12-fy-16/

Cheers PSE, appreciate it. I see they are comfortable with Cresent being on board and are happy to be a minority shareholder. I do not worry too much about them either. Either way CDD has been badly managed the last 2 years or so and its time someone or some entity did make some changes. Time to buy more now and sell at 3.15 or sell at 3.15 and buy back. That is the puzzle.....

blackcap
24-09-2015, 12:15 PM
Hi PSE, thanks for the link, but its restricted for subscribers. Could you please give the gist what the "embarrassment" was about.
Thanks.
Going to buy a small amount, then sell at the $3.15, think the ASX falling below 4,400 is pretty safe, the problem being what will be the "ex" CDD price. Happy to hold my balance though.

PSE
24-09-2015, 12:34 PM
Sorry about that, it says that more than 40% voted against the remuneration report resulting in an embarrassing "first strike" sending a clear message to the board.
If 25% or more votes are cast against the report next year the board could face a spill.
Mr Marlay admitted the vote was a sign shareholders were unhappy with last year's $145 million loss but the new CEO is set to turn things around. They are in discussions with Crescent but still consider themselves in the dark about their intentions.
You will probably do better than me by trading a bit more, I am trying to train myself to do only 5 trades a year.
I am probably being overly cautious though, the chances of a crash happening tomorrow are pretty slim.

blackcap
24-09-2015, 12:44 PM
Thanks for that. Well embarrassing it was maybe but Cresent were always going to vote against it surely? I do hope the new CEO turns things around and I also do not trade often but this one is going into my trading account for a one off. Still trying to work out what is going to happen ex the $3.15 payment but still cannot get my head around it. Market is saying its going to be less than what the price is now but then you could also short the price now and profit that way. Caution for me for now.

blackcap
24-09-2015, 01:44 PM
I never assume the shareprice means anything, unless you can talk to the people involved in the respective trades then you may know their motivations but this isn't possible.
How are you concluding what the price means?
Crescent were always going to vote against but they had a lot of other shareholders backing them, they only hold 20% but 40% voted against the remuneration report.

Well with the shareprice now being say $2.90 I conclude that this means the ex price will be around the $2.75 mark or thereabouts. But the math is not always precise and funny things can happen. The price being lower than the $3.15 to me indicates that "punters" expect the price to drop... otherwise they would be happier to pay closer to $3.15. Does that make sense?
40% against.. great result. But surely it should have been higher than that? Are 60% of shareholders saying that they are happy with CDD management?

PSE
24-09-2015, 03:58 PM
Yes they had 60% support but that doesn't mean these shareholders are happy, just that they don't want the board sacked immediately which is fair enough.
I voted against them but actually don't want them sacked immediately, putting them on notice gives them a chance to clean up their act.
I am sure that you have some idea with your calculation but no-one knows which way the shareprice of a company will fluctuate in the short term which is why I don't bother with that stuff.
The market may have an idea that the company is worth $2.75 afterwards but then a takeover offer could emerge from someone else, not saying it will but it could.
I rather focus my effort on understanding a business and all the price means is the company is selling cheaply or is expensive so that I would want to be a buyer or a seller if it suits my book.

blackcap
26-09-2015, 07:32 AM
Yes they had 60% support but that doesn't mean these shareholders are happy, just that they don't want the board sacked immediately which is fair enough.
I voted against them but actually don't want them sacked immediately, putting them on notice gives them a chance to clean up their act.
I am sure that you have some idea with your calculation but no-one knows which way the shareprice of a company will fluctuate in the short term which is why I don't bother with that stuff.
The market may have an idea that the company is worth $2.75 afterwards but then a takeover offer could emerge from someone else, not saying it will but it could.
I rather focus my effort on understanding a business and all the price means is the company is selling cheaply or is expensive so that I would want to be a buyer or a seller if it suits my book.

I am with you fully PSE, and I also generally try to buy a business which I think I understand and that I think is value that will provide me with good cashflows in the years to come. Mostly I buy and hold and re-invest the dividends.
However I also have a small trading company (more for a bit of fun and excitement) and it is with this entity in mind that I am looking at purchasing some CDD for a "trade". But happy to hold CDD long term and hope that Crescent can extract some value for all.
Looks like things are going to be shaken up at board level regardless and is something that should/could help :)

Joshuatree
11-10-2016, 09:59 PM
Another M/s infra stock on a tear; to think it was in the 50's not long ago. PSE has made a motza out of this.