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Phaedrus
19-08-2005, 11:32 AM
The best stocks are usually quite boring and CEN is no exception. Contact Energy went nowhere for well over a year back around 2002, but those that bought on the breakout above this trading range have been well rewarded - Contact Energy has now been in a steady uptrend for nearly 3 years, so far. Such buyers would be looking to sell on a break of the confirmed trendline or perhaps a Close below the 200 day ema or a 13% trailing stop. Current price action is well above these 3 indicators.

This post is not to highlight an historical opportunity that some of you probably missed, but rather to illustrate the use of oscillators to time entry into a stock that is already in an uptrend. Many hard-line fundamentalists claim that no attempt should be made to time entry into the market, because, they say, it is impossible to do so effectively. These are the advocates of "dollar cost averaging" whereby you simply buy anytime without regard to current price action. The basic idea is that sometimes you will buy high, sometimes low, so that overall you average out your entry price. The premise here is that it is impossible to beat the average. This is nonsense.

Take a look at the attached chart. On it are plotted "Buy" signals from a range of oscillators. You can see that pretty much without exception these have all flagged excellent entry points into this stock. Often these occur in clusters as multiple signals are triggered at around the same time. It is patently obvious that use of these "Buy" signals would beat any system based on purely random entry points. Anyone wanting more signals than are plotted here would use shorter oscillator time periods. Use of longer time periods would give fewer signals, if that was what you wanted. Varying the period allows you to control the sensitivity of the indicator and thus the number of signals it generates.

http://home.ripway.com/2004-7/148483/CEN819001.gif

Capitalist
19-08-2005, 11:43 AM
What a great stock Phaedrus :) The only NZ stock I hold, in fact.

Interesting from the behavioural finance point of view in so many ways - not in the least because so many ppl (and a few here), have said over the last few years that it is too "expensive" to buy. They would rather buy the penny dreadfuls. I have never understood that attitude - where is the logic.

rmbbrave
19-08-2005, 12:36 PM
"the use of oscillators to time entry into a stock that is already in an uptrend"

In other words "buy on dips".

Snow Leopard
19-08-2005, 12:42 PM
In other words "buy on certain dips"

edit: certain as in those where the numbers are right

limegreen
19-08-2005, 12:59 PM
The osciallators will also tend to have you buy on a certain level of recovery from the dips -- which may mean you won't get the cheapest possible price, but are hopefully buying when the price is rebounding out of the dip, rather than preparing to dip further. I think.

Placebo
02-09-2005, 02:34 PM
I have no idea what this is all about, but Mr Market seems fairly happy.... Always good to agree with His Honour :D

quote:REL: 1357 HRS Contact Energy Limited

GENERAL: CEN: Clutha Reconsenting:Intention to Volunteer Cmpensation Regime

CLUTHA RE-CONSENTING: CONTACT ANNOUNCES INTENTION TO VOLUNTEER COMPENSATION
REGIME

Contact Energy today confirmed its intention to volunteer a compensation
regime to cope with flooding risk at Alexandra, as part of the process of
securing resource consents for its hydro-electric operations on the
Clutha/Matau River.

On 22 July 2005, the Environment Court released its decision in respect of
Contact's resource consent appeals for the ongoing operations of the Clutha
power stations.

In his decision, Judge Jackson invited Contact to volunteer a compensation
condition to address the risk of flooding at Alexandra.

The Judge indicated that he would confirm the 35 year term granted for Lake
Roxburgh in the event that Contact volunteered such a condition. The decision
in respect of the term of 35 years granted for the operation of Lakes Dunstan
and Hawea is already final.

Contact has now reviewed the Court's decision in detail and intends to
volunteer a compensation condition as suggested by Judge Jackson.

"There are some details to be worked through, including the exact wording of
the conditions of the consents," said Contact's General Manager, Operations,
David Thomas. "We look forward to working with the Otago Regional Council,
other interested parties and the Court to achieve this over next few months.

"The process to achieve resource consents for our Clutha operations has been
a long and testing one," said Mr Thomas. "However, we are optimistic that we
can achieve an outcome, based on Judge Jackson's recommended approach, that
will deliver a robust, long term and positive outcome for all parties to the
process."

The appeal period for those aspects of the Environment Court's decision that
are final has now passed. There have been no appeals filed.

rmbbrave
10-09-2005, 06:44 PM
CEN closed at 7.31.

I imagine it has crossed that green trend line on the above graph.

I would be thnking about selling rather than buying more.

On the other hand if you had bought more on FBU in it's recent dip you would have been rewarded.

Phaedrus
11-09-2005, 08:34 AM
http://home.ripway.com/2003-11/39768/CEN911001.gif

rocket science fiction
11-09-2005, 09:07 AM
yes the trend is still in-tact
and if yu used the last 4 signal cluster given in the first chart to time your entry, you may be wondering if yu did the right thing
have faith:D
dont pull the trigger too early[:X]:D

perhaps may-be the CEN money is going into vector?

rmbbrave
11-09-2005, 01:17 PM
quote:Originally posted by rmbbrave

CEN closed at 7.31.

I imagine it has crossed that green trend line on the above graph.

I would be thnking about selling rather than buying more.

On the other hand if you had bought more on FBU in it's recent dip you would have been rewarded.


Thanks Phaedrus,

So not yet.

Sideshow Bob
21-09-2005, 06:04 PM
Hi Phaedrus,

Down 7c today. Must be pretty close to breaking the trendline?

Thanks in advance.

SSB

Phaedrus
21-09-2005, 06:15 PM
SSB,
About 4 cents to go yet.

Sideshow Bob
21-09-2005, 06:19 PM
Thanks Phaedrus, nice one. And so prompt!

Notice that share price seems to go up early in the day, and drops later in the afternoon.

Snow Leopard
21-09-2005, 06:36 PM
Obviously influenced by the
SUN

[8D]

Sideshow Bob
21-09-2005, 06:39 PM
Exactery PT.

Snow Leopard
28-09-2005, 03:43 PM
CEN bounced off the long term trend line when it hit a low of $7.30 last week and broke the short term down trend line the following day.
As it put on a few cents yesterday hopefully (for I have bought some) it will continue the long term uptrend for some time to come.

Lizard
28-09-2005, 05:15 PM
quote:Originally posted by Paper Tiger


As it put on a few cents yesterday hopefully (for I have bought some) it will continue the long term uptrend for some time to come.


At least until I buy it tomorrow...[}:)]

Major von Tempsky
29-09-2005, 04:52 PM
I hope MBBrave has been doing his selling:)

Snow Leopard
29-09-2005, 05:58 PM
...and I presume Lizard did not buy :D
Nice to see the recovery gathering momentum.

rmbbrave
29-09-2005, 10:44 PM
quote:Originally posted by Major von Tempsky

I hope MBBrave has been doing his selling:)


You hope in vain!

I bought a few at 7.44.

Wrong again MTV, - not a new experience though is it?

foodee
07-10-2005, 08:38 PM
Didymo already in the Clutha system. It seems that most river systems and lakes will be affected. Would hydropower generation be affected. The implications are enormous and far reaching. NZ freshwater fisheries may be wiped out. Whilst still on biosecurity, the marine farming scene is also under threat from another algae entity.
Interesting to hear comments

Phaedrus
12-10-2005, 04:32 PM
CEN has been looking weak for about 3 months now and dropped 1.2% today to close at $7.28. This is below the long-term trendline that had held for 3 years.
The chart below shows 6 indicators, only one of which has given a "Sell" signal as yet.
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v418/789456/CEN1012001.gif

ananda77
12-10-2005, 05:36 PM
A possible bear trap??

Personally, I do not think so. TPW below 100-day MA as well.

S&P 500 closing below primary support @1200. ASX supported @4400 but for how long??

rmbbrave
12-10-2005, 09:09 PM
Gas prices expected to flatten Contact profit growth

12.10.05 1.00pm


Contact Energy expects earnings growth to flatten off this financial year, chairman Grant King told shareholders today.

Higher gas costs would be a major challenge for the company over the next three to four years, he told the annual meeting in Auckland.

"While wholesale electricity prices are likely to continue to rise over this period, it is not expected that these prices will keep pace with the increase in Contact's fuel costs, and there will be significant pressure on the company's trading margins," Mr King said.

"In response to these pressures, Contact will be putting an increased emphasis on measures to optimise revenue and make efficiency gains across the business."

Mr King said Contact would identify and secure new development opportunities, to ensure the company captures its share of market growth.

Contact maintained a strong balance sheet to take advantage of these opportunities.

New chief executive David Hunt said new thermal fuel sources -- whether domestic or imported -- would be more expensive than Maui gas.

The effect of this was already being felt in higher electricity and gas prices.

"We are now well and truly in the post-Maui era," he said.

"A key area of focus will be striking the appropriate balance between cost containment, margin management, and investment in the business.

"Significant competition in the generation market is emerging as energy companies bring previously uneconomic generation options to market."

Mr Hunt said development of Contact's Otahuhu-C site would help security of supply to the Auckland region.

"Otahuhu-C is the logical next major thermal station for New Zealand. Equally importantly, it is already consented," he said.

Contact recorded an annual profit of $138 million in the year to June 30, which because of a change in balance date covered a nine-month period and compared with a $100.6 million profit for the previous corresponding period.

- NZPA

duncan macgregor
13-10-2005, 07:32 AM
CEN, have had a great run. Correction time looming, the share price will go side ways in my opinion. Investors dont like to listen to increased costs of production due to increased gas prices etc etc. TPW sp has stalled in sympathy but i expect in the end will benefit from cen being forced to raise prices to meet higher production costs. I think the smart money will get out of cen, and look for a new home. Great company great run but nothing lasts forever. macdunk
PS had cen in the past sold to quick

Major von Tempsky
13-10-2005, 07:40 AM
According to analysts in the paper this morning the new CEO David Hunt did not actually say anything new. He is warning of something, that other things being equal, would have an unfavourable effect "within 4 years".
Why then, the panic?
Why indeed, did he (David Hunt) say this?
The answer is - He's making like a politician.
He's just taken over from Steve Barrett who was also making like a politician more than a CEO in the months before his departure.
When Labour replaces National, or National replaces Labour, what is their first act?
To attempt to put on record how bad, how desperate, the economic and social situation is when they took over.
For National/Labour read Steve Barrett/David Hunt or vice versa. Then when David Hunt's contract comes up for renewal he can point out that Contact was on the brink of bankruptcy when he took over in October 2005 but now he has a positive cashflow and everything is ticking over nicely. Vote for David Hunt and a renewal of his CEO contract. He's so much better than that horrid, foreign, useless Steve Barrett who got everything wrong. You have to be a moron like the average NZ voter to swallow this nonsense. Its disturbing that so many NZ investors swallowed the same nonsense yesterday.
As for me, I'm more interested in what the numbers show in the next quarterly CEN report "to be released by the end of October" than I am in David Hunt's personal propaganda show. With that sort of tired old start I hope his CEO contract doesn't get renewed. I doubt whether his ultimate masters in Origin Energy will be too impressed with how he's concentrated on talking down the CEN shareprice as his first priority as CEO.

Lawso
14-10-2005, 08:33 AM
An amusing fairy story, MvT. There is one flaw in this product of the Major's fevered imagination (quote: "I doubt whether his ultimate masters in Origin Energy will be too impressed with how he's concentrated on talking down the CEN share price as his first priority as CEO" etc). The warnings about rising costs, reduced margins and gas supplies came equally from Hunt and chairman King.

King is also m.d. of Origin Energy, where Hunt worked before his recent appointment. The two obviously spoke in concert, with the OE board doubtless calling the shots. The market duly reacted as expected.

Could it be an attempt to soften up the market - those shareholders whose interests directors are legally bound to promote - before a move by the Oz-dominant board to seek the 49% of CEN that OE does not already own[?]

troyvdh
14-10-2005, 09:44 AM
Lawso....me thinks your on to it....as we have seen before (TRH-TOLL) the aussses (bless them) have usually managed to end up on the positive side (or at least try to) of the ledger when they get any exposure to a NZ company.With CEN talk the company down...blah blah...come in with an offer around $6 and tell us what a great deal they are offering....

Hold CEN and always intend to.

ananda77
14-10-2005, 09:47 AM
Lawso:

Could it be an attempt to soften up the market - those shareholders whose interests directors are legally bound to promote - before a move by the Oz-dominant board to seek the 49% of CEN that OE does not already own

I guess that would be a too obvious and blunt strategy. I think it is more a reality statement about things to come for Contact...like

...forget about Contact as CashCow producing ever increasing profits

...listen, we are post Maui and we need to do a lot of things which will cost mega-dollars

...we are going to shape Contact more to the image of Origin which placed itself in the competitive rather than the regulated electricity market

As a consequence I would assume, shareholders would need a greater appetite for risk and maybe the 'Old Guard' does not like the fact...fair enough but nevertheless...

Kind regards

PaulaEd
14-10-2005, 09:31 PM
The talk about rising gas prices was known at least a year ago. Origin knew what the score was on gas prices before they bought in. Consumers will be the ones to pay for increasing tarrifs and shareholders to take the cream.

Snow Leopard
14-10-2005, 09:54 PM
quote:Originally posted by Paper Tiger

CEN bounced off the long term trend line when it hit a low of $7.30 last week and broke the short term down trend line the following day.
As it put on a few cents yesterday hopefully (for I have bought some) it will continue the long term uptrend for some time to come.

Oh well! Although I am still in and a little way off being stopped out
I am not impressed!

Major von Tempsky
15-10-2005, 07:00 AM
A curious thing to me is that/was that the day CEN had its main big drop the price of its parent Origin Energy in Australia didn't change at all despite the Australian market going down overall and despite the Press reflecting news from Australia in a tiny article top left of a business page that not only was CEN getting savaged by bad publicity from its new CEO but the Origin Bass Strait oil/gas was running out rapidly.
How come Origin is supported while its smaller subsidiary isn't?
Tends to lend credence to the theory that Origin is not averse to trashing CEN's price so it can get the other 49% cheaply.
The other curious thing is why concentrate so hard on what will happen "within 4 years" at the expense of the near future?
What about the next 2 years of financial data some of which has passed without the data yet coming out. I don't invest on the basis of things that will happen in 3 to 4 years - who does? Cash flow time preference discounting assigns less importance to 3 to 4 years out than it does to the near future. Did David Hunt learn a different sort of time preference where the medium distant future is more important than today tomorrow?
If he's talking about the CEN quarterly result coming out "by the end of October" then don't the NZX listing rules oblige him to give a clear profit warning?
Mr. Hunt needs to clarify the situation and who he is actually working for. Maybe the NZX need to run a query on CEN?

rmbbrave
16-10-2005, 01:43 PM
Continuous disclosure

16.10.05


It wasn't quite a profit warning, but Contact Energy shareholders were this week cautioned that the past few years of soaring profit growth may be over. And so the share price of one of New Zealand's most popular listed companies started moving downhill.

Contact is moving into a tougher business scene, largely because of the higher cost of natural gas, which the energy company uses to fire its power stations. Cheap Maui gas is running down, so its stations will soon be powered with gas from smaller, more expensive fields.

Contact is also talking up the prospects of importing gas in the form of liquefied natural gas (LNG).

With a market capitalisation of more than $4 billion, Contact is the second-biggest company listed on the NZX. Privatised in 1999, it is one of New Zealand's most widely held stocks, with 95,000 shareholders.

New chief executive David Hunt took over this month, replacing Steve Barrett, who was a representative of former 51 per cent shareholder Edison Mission. Edison sold its stake in Contact last year to Australian energy giant Origin.

Since Contact is looking for new supplies of gas, Origin may not be such a bad owner to have, since it is heavily involved in the "upstream" oil and gas exploration and production sector.

Company chairman Grant King told shareholders at the annual meeting in Auckland on Wednesday that performance over recent years had been marked by strong earnings growth thanks to rising energy prices. "Contact expects this dynamic to support continued earnings growth this financial year, albeit with some flattening off in momentum," he said.

Contact shares hit a high of $8 each in early July, rising from a six-month low of $6.81 in May.

The company's dampening-down of shareholder expectations at the Auckland meeting sent its share price down 9c.

The next day things weren't much better, with the price declining again - this time 26c. Yesterday it recovered 14c to $7.16.

Lawso
16-10-2005, 05:01 PM
Interesting article, rmb. But it would be helpful if you named the source. Was it in one of the weekend papers or 'orl yer own wurk'?

rmbbrave
16-10-2005, 05:34 PM
"Continuous disclosure" is a name the Herald adds to some of it's business articles.

Major von Tempsky
18-10-2005, 07:16 AM
Just had a notice of price increase from my CEN owned power supplier. It's intentionally dense and very difficult to penetrate but after comparing with a past document it seems that they've put up one rate by 8% and another by 2%. And then they sold something yesterday for a few mill. Can't be all bad.
Reminds me of an old cartoon of Sir James Wattie addressing his company's AGM.
"In the continual and difficult struggle with soaring wage demands, strikes, cost increases and general inflation, government regulation and obstruction, I have to report that we have again overlapped a little and will be raising dividend again this year.":D

Phaedrus
13-12-2005, 10:23 AM
Chart update.
http://h1.ripway.com/Phaedrus/CEN1213001.gif

Placebo
13-12-2005, 10:38 AM
Crikey! Back to where it was a year ago.

Thanks Phaedrus.

fish
13-12-2005, 08:23 PM
do charts predict the bottom?

Phaedrus
13-12-2005, 09:04 PM
No. What they can do though is show us when the downtrend begins to weaken and when it ends. That's all you need to know - there is no need for predictions.

"Technical analysis is the study of past market behaviour to determine the current state or condition of the market" Rotella 1992.

fish
13-12-2005, 09:18 PM
thx phaedrus-your chart is clear and now is not the time to buy whilst they are on a steep downtrend .

ananda77
14-12-2005, 10:08 AM
...cen approaching key-support @575

...set your cen trading strategy

Indicators:

DMI40
W%R150


<center></center>http://img.villagephotos.com/p/2004-12/905046/cen2.gif

Phaedrus
30-08-2006, 09:12 PM
Chart update. CEN has now broken below its long-term trendline, confirming the medium-term trendline break "Sell" signal posted on 12/10/2005. (Medium-term trendlines are shown in magenta)

http://img.villagephotos.com/p/2006-2/1151662/CEN830001.gif

duncan macgregor
31-08-2006, 08:14 AM
PHAEDRUS, My time line system is in total agreement. If you take the starting price at $2-20 as the starting point at the jan 2000 year then draw a 20pc time line in advance look at all the trouble you would save yourself.
Lets have a bit of fun in hindesight and compare. 2001 = $2.64,
2002 = $3.16, 2003 = $3.79, 2004 = $4.54, 2005 = $5.44, 2006 = $6.52,
Jan 2007 I require the sp to be $7,82 less what ever level i placed my stop loss. I would be holding with it on close watch at this moment in a long term portfolio. It has been a great share to hold long term i chose TPW to best it in this sector, which is proving so far to be the better choice from when i bought in oct 2004 at an average $4.84. macdunk

Phaedrus
31-08-2006, 08:28 AM
Ah yes Duncan, but there is a big difference.
I posted my Sell signal way back when it was triggered.
You are only just now telling us about yours!

duncan macgregor
31-08-2006, 08:51 AM
quote:Originally posted by Phaedrus

Ah yes Duncan, but there is a big difference.
I posted my Sell signal way back when it was triggered.
You are only just now telling us about yours!

PHAEDRUS, My one has not triggered so far but it is close.
Draw the line at jan 2006 at$6.52 to jan 2007 at $7.82 then allow with a long term hold like this a 10pc stop loss. I am not saying i am right or wrong i dont hold this share but that would be my sell point. I think that a close to seven year hold at 20pc plus dividends deserves a bit of leeway with a 10pc stop loss. If your system says sell, then sell, my system says hold on close watch. What i found interesting is the closeness of the sell point after six and a half years. macdunk

macdunk

Phaedrus
31-08-2006, 10:03 AM
"My time line system is in total agreement"
Well, no it's not, actually.

"If you take the starting price at $2-20 as the starting point at the jan 2000 year then draw a 20pc time line in advance look at all the trouble you would save yourself"
Well Duncan, you would certainly have saved yourself all the trouble of holding CEN for 6 years! Using the startpoint specified above, you would have sold in 2000!

"My one has not triggered so far but it is close...... I would be holding with it on close watch at this moment in a long term portfolio".
No you wouldn't. You would have been flicked out in 2000 - and about ten times since then. The current price is WAY below your "timeline" - even if you totally disregard all previous breaks.

"It has been a great share to hold long term" It certainly has. Trouble is, with your "timeline" system, you would not have held it long term.

Duncan, I have said this before, but what you have here is an idea, rather than a system. The whole thing swings from a completely arbitrary start point (Why Jan 2000? Why $6.52?) and runs up at a completely arbitrary slope (Why 20%?) This total lack of precise definition enables you to draw a "timeline" pretty much anywhere you want to.

It is absurdly easy for you to relocate your timeline to prove/disprove anything you like. All you have to do is shift the start point.

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v418/789456/CEN831001.gif

duncan macgregor
31-08-2006, 10:27 AM
PHAEDRUS, Absolute one eyed rubbish. The lengths you go to with all the twisted facts, to prove someone wrong does you no credit. You Miss out the stop loss level to try and prove your arguement why dont you do it again, or be big enough to say you are wrong. You tried the same rubbish with TPW go back to your charts and have another go. In all fairness i would not have bought CEN at that time it was only the point where you started your long term trend. If you look at the chart CEN was on a confirmed downtrend at your start point which i definately would not buy in to. it was only to show you how close our exit signals were from your start time, not mine. I remember the lengths you went to to discredit a time line system it seems you think it steals your thunder, grow tall man dont be petty.
I do like your charts keep them coming but dont talk rubbish. macdunk

Snow Leopard
31-08-2006, 10:29 AM
quote:Originally posted by duncan macgregor about Contact (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/topic.asp?TOPIC_ID=18506&whichpage=39)

Now is a good time to buy. The sp for a moment dropped below TPW sp giving me a real buy signal. The market swings to high some times and to low others with the basic fundamentals unchanged. I was dead right picking trust power over cen at the time, now it looks like cen will join my portfolio. macdunk


Look Phaedrus you may think you are so clever with your graphs and rigourous approach to buying and selling but all this charting is so yesterday. Look at the brilliant technical analysis of this deluded scotsman, you just can not argue with such an original approach as that.
Look timelines (tm) are easy and make you millions you just have to know when to ignore them. You forgot the 10pc leeway, and he forgot I raise the line as the price exceeds 20% pa.

So leave the man alone otherwise he might post again and no one wants that, do we?

Disc: All in fun and sarcasm

Snow Leopard
31-08-2006, 10:30 AM
quote:Originally posted by duncan macgregor

PHAEDRUS, Absolute one eyed rubbish. The lengths you go to with all the twisted facts, to prove someone wrong does you no credit. You Miss out the stop loss level to try and prove your arguement why dont you do it again, or be big enough to say you are wrong. You tried the same rubbish with TPW go back to your charts and have another go. In all fairness i would not have bought CEN at that time it was only the point where you started your long term trend. If you look at the chart CEN was on a confirmed downtrend at your start point which i definately would not buy in to. it was only to show you how close our exit signals were from your start time, not mine. I remember the lengths you went to to discredit a time line system it seems you think it steals your thunder, grow tall man dont be petty.
I do like your charts keep them coming but dont talk rubbish. macdunk

But first remove the plank from thine own eye. ;)

duncan macgregor
31-08-2006, 10:51 AM
Bit catty for a tiger perhaps we should call you ***** instead. Give me heaps but keep it straight not one eyed rubbish to try and prove a point. CEN will trend up its only time as will TPW. I can always bore Bongo on his new web site it might be fun giving him a stir up for a change. macdunk
Had to edit my bad spelling

rmbbrave
31-08-2006, 10:59 AM
"CEN will trend up its only time as will TPW"

Some of the sentences could have done with a bit of editing too.

rmbbrave
31-08-2006, 11:03 AM
Origin gain boosted by Contact

Thursday August 31, 2006
By Angela MacDonald-Smith


Origin Energy's full-year profit rose 10 per cent, buoyed by a full-year contribution from New Zealand's Contact Energy.

Australia's second-biggest energy retailer said net income rose to A$331.9 million ($391.8 million) in the year ended June 30, from A$301 million a year earlier. Sales jumped 21 per cent to A$5.9 billion.

Origin bought 51.4 per cent of Contact in October 2004 for $1.65 billion to tap the nation's 3 per cent annual growth in power consumption.

Managing director Grant King said earnings per share might be little changed this year, though average growth of 10 to 15 per cent a year remained "feasible" longer-term.

"The result was bang in line but the guidance was disappointing," said Jason Mabee, a utilities analyst at ABN Amro Australia in Sydney.

Earnings per share fell to 41.9 cents from 42.1 cents after Origin sold shares to fund the Contact acquisition.

Investments in expansions in Australia with interest charges on recently completed projects is expected to increase interest expenses in the year ending June 30, 2007.

"It is, therefore, possible that there will be little growth in earnings per share in the coming year," King said.

The company's energy retailing business benefited from a cold early start to winter in southeastern Australia, which lifted second-half natural gas sales.

Earnings before interest and tax from retailing rose 6 per cent to A$273 million.

Origin's earnings before interest and tax from Contact jumped 50 per cent to A$519 million, while earnings from generation rose 14 per cent.

Earnings from oil and gas exploration and production fell, as did earnings from the networks business.

Origin's oil and gas production is set to jump in the year ending June 30, 2007, following the startup of the delayed BassGas and Otway natural gas projects off the southeastern coast.

Production of coal seam gas will also increase over the next two years and the company is pursuing opportunities to expand hydropower and geothermal generation and start wind energy generation, Mr King said.

Origin may also bid for energy retailing assets to be sold by the Queensland state government.

Origin declared a final dividend of A9c up from A8c a year earlier.

- BLOOMBERG

rmbbrave
31-08-2006, 11:06 AM
Come on guys use your brains and not your timelines.

Origin wants all of CEN.

Why?

See the above article.

They have tried for all of it at $8.00 but that wasn't enough.

Do you honestly think they won't try again?

duncan macgregor
31-08-2006, 11:35 AM
quote:Originally posted by rmbbrave

Come on guys use your brains and not your timelines.

They dont understand that either RMBBRAVE, so there goes your brain theory. Macdunk praising the herds knowledge of reality.
ONLY KIDDIN

Lawso
01-09-2006, 08:51 AM
quote:Origin wants all of CEN
I thought so too, rmb, especially with their consistent doom & gloom for at least the past year about CEN's prospects, e.g. future gas costs. It seemed so obvious that they were trying to talk the price down so they wouldn't have to pay too much. But on Wednesday Origin said they had no plans to either increase or quit their 51.4% stake. There's no way they could go back on such a firm statement in the foreseeable future.

So what's next? There is speculation that with their ultra-strong balance sheet and no major acquisitions on the agenda, Origin could initiate a buy-back move by CEN - anything from 50c to $2 a share.

With due respect to Phaedrus, this is for me a stronger BUY signal than anything likely to be shown on his charts.

rmbbrave
01-09-2006, 11:41 AM
Analysts talk up Contact bonanza
01 September 2006
By MARTA STEEMAN

A capital repayment to Contact Energy's 95,000 shareholders of up to $1.15 billion is being talked of.


The electricity producer posted a $281 million profit 10 days ago.

Analysts say shareholders could get back between $290 million and $1.15 billion, which would be worth between 50 cents and $2 a share. A buyback of shares is considered a tax-efficient means of returning the capital. The return would probably happen before the end of June, Contact's balance date.

Its size will depend on the outcome of a strategic review by chief executive David Baldwin. This follows the abandonment of a merger with Origin Energy.

The review is expected to be completed by the end of the year, analysts say.

Mr Baldwin said last week the company was reviewing its dividend policy and capital structure. He has not ruled out a capital return.

At the February 2005 annual meeting, chairman Grant King, who is also chief executive of Origin, ruled out a capital return.

AdvertisementAdvertisementThe review will set out expected spending on investments such as power plants and fuel supply.

But analysts say any big capital expenditure projects in the next three or four years seems unlikely because the projects being investigated take time to develop.

If Contact returned capital this year it had the option of going back to shareholders in several years when a power plant or another development required funding.

They say Contact has too little debt and too much equity for a company of its type, and therefore its balance sheet was inefficient and its capital structure not the best. Debt is considered cheaper than equity.

First New Zealand Capital analyst Jason Lindsay estimates Contact could return up to $1.15 billion. Contact has 576.7 million shares on issue, resulting in a capital return of $1.99 a share.

Goldman Sachs JBWere analyst Peter Sigley suggested a capital return of about 50c a share, which would cost $288 million.

Mr Sigley said Contact generated a huge amount of cash from its renewable hydro and geothermal power generation and was likely to remain cash rich.

It had significant opportunities for "chunky" investment in power plants. But Mr Sigley estimated any investment would be few years off.

"I think they could return a reasonable level of capital and still keep some options open," he said.

Tyndall Investment equities manager Rickey Ward said institutional shareholders in Contact and analysts he had talked to expected some sort of capital return. Origin's lacklustre annual result this week increased the likelihood because Origin needed the cash.

He hoped for some announcement or indication at the annual meeting on October 19, though others thought it might be closer to Christmas or at the half-year result in February.

BT Funds management analyst Paul Richardson said at the annual meeting institutions would be questioning the company on capital structure, including a return of capital and the dividend policy.

craic
03-09-2006, 10:11 AM
Just started a get-rich-quick share portfolio apart from my main lot. 1500 CEN and 1500 TEL to ope the game.What to do with the remaining $3,000?

winner69
03-09-2006, 10:22 AM
RBD my man .... before the private equity vultures swoop

duncan macgregor
03-09-2006, 10:40 AM
quote:Originally posted by winner69

RBD my man .... before the private equity vultures swoop
Three grand he would be wasting his time, even if it comes off. Penny dreadfulls for you my man, do a bit of homework if you want a winner. Nothing over 20cents if its a get rich plan. High risk high return, with as many shares or options as you can get. The other option is trade your way up, with at least one buy and one sell every week. That can be a lot of fun, give that ago see what happens. macdunk

ananda77
04-09-2006, 11:08 AM
craig

...not sure about quick, but for a 'riching start': mmn(asx); options available too...

Kind Regards

craic
04-09-2006, 11:56 AM
DMcG its the quick trade options. Threw the remaining three grand ito VTL. Have a look at their chart over the lastr month and with tomorrows result due, there has to be some insider info out there.

ananda77
04-09-2006, 12:07 PM
vtl(nzx)...have not done any research nor charting for this one, but just looking at the state of their vending machines(it's their shop-front right???...oh dear, oh dear????...seems high risk to me...

Kind Regards

craic
04-09-2006, 02:49 PM
Sorry Ananda 77 but just try the simple method of going to "quick quote" and from the drop dpwn menu, select charts 6 months. You will see that after a low of 48cps in July the price has risen rapidly to 84 cpsin the last two months with most of the rise in August. That is the indicator I follow. As to risk, the amount in this share is about 1% of my portfolio.

Caesius
21-09-2006, 01:26 PM
According to this announcement here http://www.nzx.com/market/market_announcements/by_company?id=135873 , Contact pays its dividend today. I've always read that a share drops in value when a dividend is payed, but it has rallied today.

Just a coincidence?

gamerice
21-09-2006, 01:34 PM
quote:Originally posted by Caesius

According to this announcement here http://www.nzx.com/market/market_announcements/by_company?id=135873 , Contact pays its dividend today. I've always read that a share drops in value when a dividend is payed, but it has rallied today.

Just a coincidence?


Share price normally drop (in proportion to the dividend) the day after the Record date.
I don't think the Pay date has anything to do with it.

djones
04-10-2006, 04:03 PM
04 Oct 2006 08:50
GENERAL: CEN: Possible LNG site about preserving future options

4 October 2006

POSSIBLE LNG SITE ABOUT PRESERVING FUTURE OPTIONS

Genesis Energy and Contact Energy Limited today said the selection of Port
Taranaki as the preferred site for a LNG import terminal, was all about
preserving future options.

Contact Chief Executive David Baldwin and Genesis Energy Chief Executive
Murray Jackson said while the resource consent process would soon be started
for a possible LNG import terminal at the Port Taranaki site, the move was
all about enhancing options.

The two companies have created a new joint venture company called Gasbridge,
which will run a community consultation process on the proposal and manage
the resource consenting process.

"Both Contact and Genesis Energy have a strong preference to use domestic
natural gas," said Contact Energy Chief Executive, David Baldwin.

"This announcement of a potential site for an import terminal is all about
preserving future options. It is simply prudent commercial risk management."

Murray Jackson said Port Taranaki had been selected as a preferred site
because of the region''s world-class experience in handling natural gas and
hydrocarbons, its deep water port and its natural gas distribution
infrastructure.

"New Plymouth is regarded as New Zealand''s energy capital for a very good
reason. The residents understand energy and the importance of New Plymouth as
a national energy hub to both the local and national economy," he said.

Mr Jackson said in the event of a future natural gas shortage, the LNG option
could provide New Zealand with a secure and safe supply of natural gas until
new domestic discoveries were made and bought to market.

"While this announcement is simply about developing a future option, it is
important that residents understand the proposal - in particular that LNG is
safe and that any future import terminal would meet very high international
safety standards," said Mr Jackson.

The proposed terminal would involve a new purpose-built berth at the end of
the main breakwater inside the Port of Taranaki, with the LNG being piped
along adjacent to the breakwater and stored in a new tank at Contact''s New
Plymouth Power Station. The appropriate access and land agreements have been
reached with Port Taranaki and the Power Station.

A Gasbridge website (www.gasbridge.co.nz) has been launched explaining LNG,
along with computer generated images of how a new LNG terminal might look and
a facility for people to ask questions and have them answered on-line.

A free information phone line has been set up to answer any questions from
the public on 0800 GAS LNG (427 564).

"We urge residents to have a good look at the Gasbridge website and the
information displays. These resources should answer most common questions,"
said Mr Jackson.

Caesius
19-10-2006, 03:46 PM
Did anyone attend Contact's AGM today?

djones
19-10-2006, 04:38 PM
quote:Originally posted by Caesius

Did anyone attend Contact's AGM today?


Some people that did attend obviously didnt like the outcome of the meeting.

Change: -16 to $7.19

Read these articles they are a good read:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601081&sid=a56J0aj8H1rU&refer=australia

http://www.stuff.co.nz/stuff/0,2106,3833690a13,00.html

Sideshow Bob
19-10-2006, 05:26 PM
quote:Originally posted by Caesius

Did anyone attend Contact's AGM today?


Just had a piece on TV1 news about Contact AGM, which is unusual. Mentioned about Pike, slating the cancelation of the merger, and Saunders and his involvement in Feltex.

Both got returned to the board, based on Origin's shareholding.

Apparently the debate went for 2.5 hrs!

Ed
19-10-2006, 07:06 PM
So our independent directors only got returned through the support of the majority holder. The only people these fools are "independent" of are the minority shareholders!

COLIN
19-10-2006, 10:59 PM
quote:Originally posted by Sideshow Bob


quote:Originally posted by Caesius

Did anyone attend Contact's AGM today?


Just had a piece on TV1 news about Contact AGM, which is unusual. Mentioned about Pike, slating the cancelation of the merger, and Saunders and his involvement in Feltex.

Both got returned to the board, based on Origin's shareholding.

Apparently the debate went for 2.5 hrs!

What's Pike got to do with CEN? Are they taking a holding, either direct or in NZO?

(On reflection, perhaps you mean Phil Pryke?)

minimoke
20-10-2006, 07:59 AM
As a holder of CEN and a watcher of FTX I wanted to see the end of Saunders. A great shame he remains. He has obviously started loosing the plot over the past few years and is a liability to shareholders on this Board so time for me to review this holding.

J. Holmes
20-10-2006, 08:43 AM
Good to see the institutional shareholders finally making their voices heard. I thought that the independents still had time to run before they are up for re-election, the motion to be rid of them was an extraordinary one and therefore bound to fail due to Origin's majority stake.

I think they are pretty much "£%ed next time though, Origin will be doing everything it can to placate the big shareholders as without them any attempt at a "merger" is bound for failure.

I am pleased that the "merger" was dismissed as it was a vain attempt by Origin (an exploration company) to get their hands on some very stable cashflow. I am not pleased that we, the Contact shareholders, have effectively paid for this exercise in frutility. I am also not pleased that our so-called "independent" directors [u]</u>again[u]</u> attempted to sell the company overseas for less than it is worth.

I think the writing is on the wall for these chaps, it is a shame that they will continue to be around for another year or so. Pryke is a joke, Saunders even more so....good job on Feltex mate, that is going to really make your resume look great.

Once again it is the Contact shareholder who ends up paying for this sideshow. Would be nice to have it back under kiwi control, with a half-decent set of directors on board??? Dream on Holmes[V]

Phaedrus
20-10-2006, 09:46 AM
Since it is almost exactly a year since CEN gave a trendline break Sell signal, an anniversary chart might be in order.

CEN is now below that exit point, having fallen while the market continued to rise.

Technically, CEN is still in a long-term uptrend - but you would have been better getting out of it over a year ago.

http://h1.ripway.com/Phaedrus/CEN1020001.gif

Lawso
20-10-2006, 01:20 PM
The Shareholders Assn reps, Botherway of Brook Asset Management, Graeme Bulling and others put up a good fight but it was always a lost cause, given Origin's 51% voting power. Am I being paranoid when I note that, while the directors stayed in the spotlight and read from autocues, shareholders from the floor stood in poor light and had to contend with a weak sound system - was the volume deliberately turned down?

Early on, Des Hunt of NZSA suggested that in addition to the ballot the chairman might call for a show of hands on each of the contentious resolutions. Chairman King turned him down. I wonder why?

The three so-called "independent" directors are completely shameless. Their blind subservience to Origin's wishes is outrageous. And was it arrogance or stupidity which led Saunders to mention - and try to justify - his role in the Feltex disaster.

No mention, of course, of a special dividend or cash return. Only the standard negativity over CEN's prospects - as if Origin is still trying to talk the price down ahead of another bid.
Remember that chairman Grant King is the CEO of Origin The other two directors are Origin flunkeys, which means there is no one on the board committed to the interests of the minority (49%) shareholders

Bilo
20-10-2006, 02:43 PM
I think Origin (and CEN management) will be surprised by the voting results.

If you take out the 292M Origin votes then Pryke and Saunders were given a clear message that the independent shareholders that they represent do not support them. Is resignation the next logical step?

The call for an independent committee was a clear indication that no-one outside of Origin trusts Origin to do what is best for CEN.

Thanks for putting the motions Botherway and Co.

Caesius
20-10-2006, 04:00 PM
I keep hearing how much the minor shareholders wanted these guys "out" but according to http://www.nzx.com/market/market_announcements/by_company?id=138621

only 14.67% of shareholders wanted Phillip Pryke gone,
only 13.62% of shareholders wanted Tim Saunders gone,
only 8.20% of shareholders wanted John Milne gone,
and finally only 7.72% of shareholders wanted "To terminate the current Chief Executive Officer's arrangement with Origin Energy or replace him".

I understand Origin has 51%, so that accounts for just over half of votes.

Seems like very few people actually want these guys gone...

limegreen
20-10-2006, 04:08 PM
quote:Originally posted by Caesius

I keep hearing how much the minor shareholders wanted these guys "out" but according to http://www.nzx.com/market/market_announcements/by_company?id=138621

only 14.67% of shareholders wanted Phillip Pryke gone,
only 13.62% of shareholders wanted Tim Saunders gone,
only 8.20% of shareholders wanted John Milne gone,
and finally only 7.72% of shareholders wanted "To terminate the current Chief Executive Officer's arrangement with Origin Energy or replace him".

I understand Origin has 51%, so that accounts for just over half of votes.

Seems like very few people actually want these guys gone...


On the other hand, it would appear that largely people who were not Origin didn't vote. I know I never usually bother to vote. I think it is telling that of those who did vote and weren't origin 83% wanted an independent committee (that's also 16% of the the entire shareholding). Seems like some strong motivation for change. But yeah, only 58% of non-Origin voters voted to oust Saunders.

djones
20-10-2006, 04:15 PM
quote:Originally posted by Bilo
If you take out the 292M Origin votes then Pryke and Saunders were given a clear message that the independent shareholders that they represent do not support them. Is resignation the next logical step?


If you take out the 51% share (using 292mil shares) that Origin have then this is how it stands:


Shareholder Proposals (Without Origin)
RESOLUTION 1: To remove Phillip Pryke from office as a director
Votes for: 57,629,517 (57.08%)
Votes against: 43,339,880 (42.92%)
RESOLUTION NOT PASSED

RESOLUTION 2: To remove Tim Saunders from office as a director
Votes for: 54,291,521 (50.88%)
Votes against: 52,404,245 (49.12%)
RESOLUTION NOT PASSED

RESOLUTION 3: To remove John Milne from office as a director
Votes for: 32,222,635 (31.97%)
Votes against: 68,560,616 (68.03%)
RESOLUTION NOT PASSED

RESOLUTION 4: To terminate the current Chief Executive Officer's arrangement with Origin Energy or replace him
Votes for: 31,196,735 (27.81%)
Votes against: 80994946 (72.19%)
RESOLUTION NOT PASSED

RESOLUTION 5: To preclude the Chief Executive Officer in the future having any arrangement with Origin Energy
Votes for: 31,051,539 (27.77%)
Votes against: 80772368 (72.23%)
RESOLUTION NOT PASSED

RESOLUTION 6: To establish an independent committee regarding Contact Energy's relationships with Origin Energy and with the authority to make public statements
Votes for: 91,385,594 (81.36%)
Votes against: 20943678 (18.64%)
RESOLUTION NOT PASSED

RESOLUTION 7: To attempt to recover Contact Energy's merger proposal costs from Origin Energy
Votes for: 41,250,821 (36.72%)
Votes against: 71093059 (63.28%)
RESOLUTION NOT PASSED

RESOLUTION 8: To reduce the directors' fees until the merger proposal costs have been recovered from Origin Energy
Votes for: 14,818,419 (13.21%)
Votes against: 97373512 (86.79%)
RESOLUTION NOT PASSED

Business

RESOLUTION 9: To authorise the directors to fix the auditor's remuneration
Votes for: 111874192 (99.73%)
Votes against: 307,220 (0.27%)
RESOLUTION PASSED

RESOLUTION 10: To re-elect Grant King as a director
Votes for: 89734713 (80.58%)
Votes against: 21,621,068 (19.42%)
RESOLUTION PASSED

RESOLUTION 11: To re-elect Bruce Beeren as a director
Votes for: 74224144 (66.62%)
Votes against: 37,188,520 (33.38%)
RESOLUTION PASSED

RESOLUTION 12: To adopt a new constitution (by special resolution)
Votes for: 105171777 (94.71%)
Votes against: 5,870,369 (5.29%)
RESOLUTION PASSED

Caesius
20-10-2006, 04:21 PM
Even with your adjustments djones (thank you, very useful) it doesn't paint a picture of "overwhelming shareholder sentiment" to get rid of these guys. More a 50/50 split in opinion.

Bilo
20-10-2006, 04:56 PM
The Origin Vote is only the direct shareholding - not necessarily the full extent of the Origin / Proxy vote which was requested at the meeting, promised to the shareholders association, but has not been provided.

Lawso
21-10-2006, 09:08 AM
If the chairman had acceded to the request for a show of hands on the resolutions, I reckon you would have got "overwhelming shareholder sentiment" in favour of dumping them - probably about 99% of those present.

Caesius
21-10-2006, 09:35 AM
If this sort of thing is so bad, why are there not laws in place to stop this happening?

djones
27-10-2006, 03:33 PM
Contact secures additional Maui gas
Contact Energy has secured rights to a further 170 petajoules of natural gas from the
Maui gas field,.....

http://www.contactenergy.co.nz/web/pdf/financial/2006_oct_contact_secures_additional_maui_gas.pdf

"Mr Baldwin said Contact had, in conjunction with the purchase, arranged to sell around seven petajoules per annum from October 2007 until mid 2010 to a large wholesale gas customer. Contact has also agreed to a short-term sale to another wholesale customer."

rmbbrave
24-12-2006, 09:44 PM
quote:Originally posted by rmbbrave

Come on guys use your brains and not your timelines.

Origin wants all of CEN.

Why?

See the above article.

They have tried for all of it at $8.00 but that wasn't enough.

Do you honestly think they won't try again?


Told You.

rmbbrave
24-12-2006, 09:50 PM
AGL tipped for second tilt at Contact
By GARRY SHEERAN - Sunday Star Times | Sunday, 24 December 2006

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Australian energy giant AGL may make its second bid for Contact Energy next year as takeover and merger activity hots up around the booming trans-Tasman energy sector.


On news of latest rumours, Contact shares hit $8.28 last week before retreating to $8.18 when the market closed for the Christmas break.

Bab****& Brown, an investment bank with substantial infrastructure interests, is widely tipped to be leading a consortium which is running the ruler over Origin Energy.

The consortium includes AGL and an infrastructure entity of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia.

Origin Energy comprises many different energy businesses - power generation, retailing, exploration and production. It is also 51.4 per cent owner of Contact Energy.

The most likely outcome of any successful bid would be for Origin assets to split up and sold off to different owners.

AGL is considered a likely buyer for Contact Energy.

AGL lost out to Origin Energy when US energy giant Edison Mission quit its cornerstone shareholding in Contact Energy in mid-2004.

Analysts said Origin's controversial takeover offer for all Contact Energy shares earlier this year was in part inspired by Origin's need to access Contact's cash flows and debt-free balance sheet as it sought to make new acquisitions in Australia.

Such acquisitions would give it the extra size and financial clout it needed to fend off potential aggressive acquirers like AGL.

Only last week Origin beat AGL in the race for Sun Retail, the main prize in the Queensland State government's sell-off of electricity retailing assets.

A jump of nearly $A1 in Origin's share price in the past fortnight sparked a "please explain" notice from the Australian Stock Exchange on Tuesday.

Origin said it was not aware of information that might explain the rise.

But Origin chairman Bruce King told Australian media the market was now better appreciating the long term Origin strategy of reaggregation, including purchases like Sun Retail.

That, in turn, apparently flushed into the open informed market speculation of the Bab****& Brown-led look at Origin Energy.

Bab****& Brown is a leading infrastructure player in Australia which brought New Plymouth-based Powerco, also in 2004.

Also in 2004, AGL sold NGC to Vector to quit New Zealand - for the time being at least.

Macquarie Equities investment director Arthur Lim said AGL was a logical buyer for Contact Energy if the Origin empire was bought and broken up.

It would probably require AGL to make a bid for all Contact shares, which would mean Contact shareholders would be faced with considering the fourth attempt by an overseas energy company to buy their shares.

warthog
25-12-2006, 07:48 AM
Bab****& Brown - an excellent example of how censorship draws attention to that which is being censored.

troyvdh
12-12-2007, 03:49 PM
Am i the only punter thinking whats up...plant closure...low lake levels.....gee if I was Origin i might be thinking this could be the time to.......

troyvdh
13-12-2007, 01:36 PM
Perhaps yesterday the "bottom" may have been reached ????...good volumn.

I find it interesting thinking....what % of buyers/sellers (of say CEN and obviously a few others) were doing so-- because of what the chart(s) were "telling them".....
-- needed the dosh or had some to spend...
-- their brokers told them
-- thought the fundamentals indicated "im in" or "im out"

...at the end of the day thats "the market " I suppose

CEN...hold some and bought some yesterday.

Deev8
13-12-2007, 02:23 PM
...at the end of the day thats "the market " I suppose... and as Benjamin Graham said "In the short term the market is a voting machine in the long term it is a weighing machine".

troyvdh
27-03-2008, 06:32 PM
Gee...down on good volume....like i mean really good volume....to
me its crazy.....am I missing something......Origin perhaps.....I bought some under $7......what to do.............

ratkin
27-03-2008, 07:44 PM
Could be contact is down for the same reason that nz windfarms are about to go up.
The govt commitment to renewable energy.

Arbitrage
28-03-2008, 07:32 AM
The CEN half yearly report shows that the company supports the 90% renewable energy by 2025 target set by the government. The company already has some well established major renewable energy assets such as the Clyde Dam, and Lake Hawea which it has consents to squeeze more energy out of. Combined with geothermal and wind, this side of the company is looking good. The development of fast peaking gas generation at Stratford should also be a highly profitable area in the near future.

BDLBOM
28-03-2008, 08:51 PM
When are Origin going to have another crack at a takeover? The S.P. isn't going to go much lower is it?

macduffy
29-03-2008, 07:57 AM
When are Origin going to have another crack at a takeover? The S.P. isn't going to go much lower is it?


Yes, would have to believe that ORG will have another go at some time.
As for the SP, at $7-98 its still more than 15% higher than the 12 month low of $6-91 and at a PE of almost 20, not exactly cheap.

Disc: Holding CEN (firmly).

:)

Grimy
29-03-2008, 09:09 AM
I can't see why the sp wouldn't go down further. I've been a holder from the beginning and it has always seemed to me that if you were a trader you could probably have done okay with this one, it seems to go up and down (with large variations in price) on a regular cycle. I actually sold out last week for the first time at $8.60 (and got the div) and will be looking at getting back in once it drops a bit lower.
Certainly a share I want to be holding, but in the present climate thought I'd cash up and get back in at a lower price soon.

CJ
30-04-2008, 11:19 AM
What has happened. Big jump in price in last 20 min but no announcement?

CJ
30-04-2008, 12:09 PM
bg & origin

BG?

Looks like it was only about $1.5m worth anyway and the price is now settling down.

Smart money in or smart money out??

CJ
30-04-2008, 12:28 PM
Origin Energy, 51 per cent owner of New Zealand's Contact Energy, has been approached by BG Group of the UK about a proposal to take over the company.


BG Group is proposing $A14.70 ($NZ17.88) cash per Origin share, valuing the target at about $A12.91 billion.

Origin shares ended yesterday at $A10.47, valuing it at $A9.20 billion.

"Origin has not yet considered the proposal," it said.

"Discussions between the parties will take place and shareholders will be advised of the outcome.

"These discussions may or may not lead to an agreed transaction."

Origin today advised its shareholders to take no action pending further advice from the company.

BG Group's proposal is subject to shareholder and regulatory approvals.

BG Group operaties in 27 countries and is a leading player in the global energy market.

Contact shares jumped 9 per cent, or 77 cents, to $10.15, on the prospect it might also receive a takeover offer.
http://www.stuff.co.nz/4503588a13.html

Phaedrus
30-04-2008, 02:19 PM
Here is an updated CEN chart along with 5 fairly active indicators that I consider suitable for monitoring the current uptrend. While CEN is currently looking good, this is no time to blindly "buy and hold" ANY stock.

Note how price action accelerated away from trendline (1) rendering it obsolete. Ditto trendline (2). Trendline (3), although confirmed, now looks to be too steep to sustain. In the absence of other signals, any break below this trendline should probably be ignored unless you really want out.

The RSI(24) oscillator has today become technically "OverBought", and will trigger a "Sell" signal when it drops below the OverBought threshold. Unless this signal is confirmed by some other indicator(s) it should be ignored. This oscillator can be "detuned" to some extent by using a break of its trendline as the trigger, rather than a break below the overbought threshold. With uptrending stocks, it is quite common for oscillators like the RSI to remain around overbought levels for long periods of time and to give a string of "Sell" signals. Any RSI "Buy" signals will mark good entry points, though. You can see here that the RSI signalled a "Buy" over a month ahead of most other indicators featured here. Even the OBV trendline break confirmation didn't come till more than a week later.

http://h1.ripway.com/Phaedrus/CEN430.gif

Snoopy
30-04-2008, 06:29 PM
While CEN is currently looking good, this is no time to blindly "buy and hold" ANY stock.


I'll let Phaedrus tell the chart story, but I wanted to agree with his statement above - for fundamentalist reasons.

Today's interest in Contact is a flow on from speculation of what might happen if the BG Group takeover offer for Contact cornerstone shareholder Origin Energy is successful. BG Group I believe used to be 'British Gas'. Having BGG as the new cornerstone shareholder in a New Zealand energy generator doesn't seem a particularly long term good fit. IF BGG wants to sell Contact Energy the transfer of that 51&#37; majority Contact stake will trigger the New Zealand takeovers code. The possibility of this is why the CEN share price has risen today.

Fundamentalists who follow Contact will know that even before today's price rise, Contact Energy was looking expensive. It is a leap of faith to suggest that in today's funding market, that there are a battery of potential suitors lining up to buy Contact for 'top dollar'. It is possible that BGG would only be able to sell such a large shareholding at 'market prices' and that a takeover offer might be made at say $9.50, or even at a discount (say $9) . That is a level that might be fair - but insufficient to convince the NZ institutions to sell. Thus any such takeover offer would fail (perhaps even by design) and the CEN share price might have considerable sort term downside as a consequence.

BG Group already has interests in a Queensland gas field coming on stream in 2010. It is highly likely that they will be targeting Asian markets with this gas and they see Origin as a natural local synergy partner. If they do decide to divert gas to Asia, this may hurt Contact's own gas powered generating stations in a negative way. Thus it is far from clear to me that this Origin Energy takeover deal is good for Contact Energy shareholders.

SNOOPY

discl: hold CEN

redzone
30-04-2008, 06:47 PM
I cant see BGG wanting Contact....flick it back to Helen or even the Chinese

Viking
01-05-2008, 02:24 PM
I'll let Phaedrus tell the chart story, but I wanted to agree with his statement above - for fundamentalist reasons.

Today's interest in Contact is a flow on from speculation of what might happen if the BG Group takeover offer for Contact cornerstone shareholder Origin Energy is successful. BG Group I believe used to be 'British Gas'. Having BGG as the new cornerstone shareholder in a New Zealand energy generator doesn't seem a particularly long term good fit. IF BGG wants to sell Contact Energy the transfer of that 51% majority Contact stake will trigger the New Zealand takeovers code. The possibility of this is why the CEN share price has risen today.

Fundamentalists who follow Contact will know that even before today's price rise, Contact Energy was looking expensive. It is a leap of faith to suggest that in today's funding market, that there are a battery of potential suitors lining up to buy Contact for 'top dollar'. It is possible that BGG would only be able to sell such a large shareholding at 'market prices' and that a takeover offer might be made at say $9.50, or even at a discount (say $9) . That is a level that might be fair - but insufficient to convince the NZ institutions to sell. Thus any such takeover offer would fail (perhaps even by design) and the CEN share price might have considerable sort term downside as a consequence.

BG Group already has interests in a Queensland gas field coming on stream in 2010. It is highly likely that they will be targeting Asian markets with this gas and they see Origin as a natural local synergy partner. If they do decide to divert gas to Asia, this may hurt Contact's own gas powered generating stations in a negative way. Thus it is far from clear to me that this Origin Energy takeover deal is good for Contact Energy shareholders.

SNOOPY

discl: hold CEN

By saying that Snoopy, does that also spell the possibility that BG will off-load their 51% of Contact? Because it feels (or sounded) like that Contact does not particularly suit BG aim in this take-over.

Snoopy
01-05-2008, 03:27 PM
By saying that Snoopy, does that also spell the possibility that BG will off-load their 51&#37; of Contact? Because it feels (or sounded) like that Contact does not particularly suit BG aim in this take-over.

Yes, BG might unload their stake in CEN although I thought I covered what might happen in that eventuality.

"It is a leap of faith to suggest that in today's funding market, that there are a battery of potential suitors lining up to buy Contact for 'top dollar'. It is possible that BGG would only be able to sell such a large shareholding at 'market prices' and that a takeover offer might be made at say $9.50, or even at a discount (say $9) . That is a level that might be fair - but insufficient to convince the NZ institutions to sell. Thus any such takeover offer would fail (perhaps even by design) and the CEN share price might have considerable sort term downside as a consequence."

If that doesn't cover it perhaps you might ask further about what point you wanted me to address.

Takeovers can take several forms. If BG just buys Origin outright and BG didn't own any shares in Contact before, I don't see why they would need to make a takeover bid for Contact. But then again I'm no expert in Australian takeover laws.

SNOOPY

Viking
01-05-2008, 05:27 PM
Yes, BG might unload their stake in CEN although I thought I covered what might happen in that eventuality.

"It is a leap of faith to suggest that in today's funding market, that there are a battery of potential suitors lining up to buy Contact for 'top dollar'. It is possible that BGG would only be able to sell such a large shareholding at 'market prices' and that a takeover offer might be made at say $9.50, or even at a discount (say $9) . That is a level that might be fair - but insufficient to convince the NZ institutions to sell. Thus any such takeover offer would fail (perhaps even by design) and the CEN share price might have considerable sort term downside as a consequence."

If that doesn't cover it perhaps you might ask further about what point you wanted me to address.

Takeovers can take several forms. If BG just buys Origin outright and PG didn't own any shares in Contact before, I don't see why they would need to make a takeover bid for Contact. But then again I'm no expert in Australian takeover laws.

SNOOPY

Thank you for that Snoopy~ :D yes, that does cover what's on my mind~

well, I off-loaded mine earlier (a bit too early in hind-sight) could make roughly another 10% more~ but quite happy to take my profit and sit on the sideline watching things unfold :)

Steve
02-05-2008, 07:44 PM
Can you imagine the level of political interference should Labour still be in power if 51% of CEN goes on the block?!

minimoke
29-05-2008, 11:23 AM
Dang, I topped up yesterday at $9.10 on the back of falling lake levels. I hope today’s trading halt ends up being good news.

Steve
29-05-2008, 06:37 PM
Dang, I topped up yesterday at $9.10 on the back of falling lake levels. I hope today’s trading halt ends up being good news.

I suspect that the news will flow thru in a positive way...

minimoke
30-05-2008, 03:24 PM
I suspect that the news will flow thru in a positive way...
2&#37; rise in price and a 2% drop in lakes - I'm happy!
Edit – lets make that 4.1% at end of day. I’m glad its election year and the government isn’t promoting energy savings!

BDLBOM
31-05-2008, 07:33 AM
I suspect that the news will flow thru in a positive way...

My instincts told me it would too but I must admit to being puzzled as to how the Origin BG outcome should have benefitted the Cen s/p.
Any comments?

macduffy
31-05-2008, 08:07 AM
My instincts told me it would too but I must admit to being puzzled as to how the Origin BG outcome should have benefitted the Cen s/p.
Any comments?

I suspect it's the excitement caused when a company ( or its parent, as in CEN's case ) is in play. Particularly when the Origin board has rejected the BG bid. A bit overdone IMO, it's the ORG coal seam methane that everyone wants and the CEN shareholding may be a bit irrelevant to another bidder, as it is/was to BG.
Having said that, CEN remains a core portfolio stock for me.

;)

minimoke
24-06-2008, 02:02 PM
Dang, I topped up yesterday at $9.10 on the back of falling lake levels. I hope today’s trading halt ends up being good news.
Another trading halt today after a $13.8b takeover bid by Origin. Finally after getting hammered on this stock this month a cold front has come through and the SP has lifted to $8.46 after a low of $8.20 in the past month! Heaters on please folks!

BRICKS
11-07-2008, 08:03 AM
WELL the wick in the engine seems to have gone out, and looking at the terms of the Oz takeover they appears to be NO reason for an NZ t/o of CEN could be BIZ as usual for some time to come whatever happens in Oz so you have to look to CEN to stand on its own feet.

So BUY or look at the div is low and the price out look or headed for a three year low at BEST bet put on your RADAR..

Dr_Who
11-07-2008, 08:26 AM
WELL the wick in the engine seems to have gone out, and looking at the terms of the Oz takeover they appears to be NO reason for an NZ t/o of CEN could be BIZ as usual for some time to come whatever happens in Oz so you have to look to CEN to stand on its own feet.

So BUY or look at the div is low and the price out look or headed for a three year low at BEST bet put on your RADAR..

Good call BRICKS. I finally agree with you on something. Will put CEN on radar also. :)

POSSUM THE CAT
11-07-2008, 09:34 AM
Cen has been on the watch list for a long while but now the Bricks indicator is suggesting a sell

BRICKS
11-07-2008, 09:52 AM
Cen has been on the watch list for a long while but now the Bricks indicator is suggesting a sell

HOPING you sell your`s CAT. and bring on that lower s/price but as usual your got none and probably dont have two bob to RUB together just try and contribute SOMETIMES..

BRICKS
15-07-2008, 08:23 AM
WELL its been said nobody wants CEN, alive or dead with a 65% holding they cant sell as a whole other wise the buyer has to take 100% of the company not these days so its nose dive time, but on the good side is its a top company if only the Div rate was higher..

Mite be a couple of 19% buyers hanging around so we will just have to WATCH..

Dr_Who
15-07-2008, 08:26 AM
Just have to wait for it to bottom out mate. Not yet seen the bottom.

BRICKS
15-07-2008, 08:32 AM
WELL its been said nobody wants CEN, alive or dead with a 65% holding they cant sell as a whole other wise the buyer has to take 100% of the company not these days so its nose dive time, but on the good side is its a top company if only the Div rate was higher..

Mite be a couple of 19% buyers hanging around so we will just have to WATCH..

SAY it one more time to clear things " Its nose dive time.. " got it DOC..

AMR
21-07-2008, 12:19 PM
A nice bounce off the previous low at 7.11 right before all this commodity correction chaos. My trend following indicators gave off a buy on this today. Risk reward for this is kinda crappy though, and it's on the NZX which makes it even more unappealing.

FYA4999
12-09-2008, 03:09 PM
CEN shares look poised to have another crack at $9 and beyond. Anyone out there share the same opinion?

Phaedrus any chance of a chart update?

Thanks
FYA4999

minimoke
12-09-2008, 04:10 PM
CEN shares look poised to have another crack at $9 and beyond. Anyone out there share the same opinion?

I Hope so. I bought earlier in the year at $7.90 and topped up at $9.10 on the back of lake levels. Trouble is there is loads of snow waiting to melt this spring so there won’t be any shortage of hydro next year. And I’m not sure the new Emissions Trading scheme is going to do CEN any favours.

Phaedrus
12-09-2008, 06:48 PM
CEN has been range-bound for quite a while now, but the range is wide enough to trade profitably. This chart shows 7 indicators suitable for that purpose, but you would have no trouble finding plenty more that were just as good and gave similar signals. Users of such systems would currently be holding CEN, having bought in July. You can see that current price action is such that none of the featured indicators are anywhere near triggering a Sell signal.

http://freefile.kristopherw.us/uploads/faydrus/cen912.gif

FYA4999
14-09-2008, 05:31 PM
Awesome. Thanks Phaedrus.

Sideshow Bob
23-10-2008, 06:03 PM
Bizzare decision to ram the increased directors fees through, and then back down the same day! Good on those shareholders who fought against it.

Tim Saunders said he was underpaid - ha!

Dr_Who
23-10-2008, 06:15 PM
Bizzare decision to ram the increased directors fees through, and then back down the same day! Good on those shareholders who fought against it.

Tim Saunders said he was underpaid - ha!

One word, arrogance!

bermuda
23-10-2008, 06:22 PM
One word, arrogance!

One word.....Feltex

macduffy
24-10-2008, 08:11 AM
Bizzare decision to ram the increased directors fees through, and then back down the same day! Good on those shareholders who fought against it.

Tim Saunders said he was underpaid - ha!


Company announcement only undertakes not to increase base directors' fees, at this time.

Dr_Who
24-10-2008, 02:25 PM
I heard on talkback radio that a large number of retail clients have switch from CEN to other power supplier. Contact is losing their retail client base quickly. Maybe time for the directors to go?

AMR
24-10-2008, 03:52 PM
That AGM must have infuriated the shareholders - enough to break support and breakout downwards. CEN at 6.20 next week my guess...

BDLBOM
24-10-2008, 08:01 PM
I heard on talkback radio that a large number of retail clients have switch from CEN to other power supplier. Contact is losing their retail client base quickly. Maybe time for the directors to go?

Ouch! Seems like we need directors who spend a bit more time in NZ. The current lot clearly had no idea of the national mood.
However if you do your arithmetic, switching to another supplier probably won't save you any money. You only have the satisfaction of giving the directors the metaphorical fingers.
Hopefully some good will come out of it and Pryke & Saunders will be dumped.

ScrappyO
24-10-2008, 08:07 PM
I heard on talkback radio that a large number of retail clients have switch from CEN to other power supplier. Contact is losing their retail client base quickly. Maybe time for the directors to go?

I heard that genesis has been calling up contact customers over the last few days. Giving them a fixed rate and $75 off their next bill.

winner69
24-10-2008, 08:07 PM
Loved the part when shepard asked the directors individually whether they think they are undrpaid .... and the woman one said she doesn't get paid to start with

Sideshow Bob
24-10-2008, 10:47 PM
I had heard one theory that the price increase was a way to try to bleed off some SI customers that was costing them money with the high spot rates. The directors fee debarcle just a disaster on top......

Dr_Who
27-10-2008, 03:56 PM
Contact may lose 5pc of customers

Contact Energy is set to lose up to five percent of its customers by the end of next year, a top sharebroking firm says.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/4740746a13.html

brettdale
27-10-2008, 06:14 PM
Contact may lose 5pc of customers

Contact Energy is set to lose up to five percent of its customers by the end of next year, a top sharebroking firm says.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/4740746a13.html



Is that people leaving them, because of their practices?

CAM
27-10-2008, 08:52 PM
Wonder why they want to talk the price down?
Did they act for Origin last time there was a full takeover offer?

Dr_Who
28-10-2008, 09:42 AM
Wonder why they want to talk the price down?
Did they act for Origin last time there was a full takeover offer?


Nope, they are not talking the price down. The reality is that the average NZ is pissed off and changing suppliers due to the action of the directors. I am about to change my supplier from Empower to Mercury also. Listening to talkback radio, it seems there are alot of unhappy CEN customers and shareholders.

AMR
28-10-2008, 09:45 AM
And it has all coincided with a major trend reversal Doc!

CAM
28-10-2008, 10:19 AM
They might lose 5pc of customers but.....

"Contact would still sell all the electricity it generated, about 28 per cent of national output, and the loss of some of its retail base would be taken up by commercial or wholesale clients"

...and wouldn't commercial/wholesale be 'cheaper' customers to have?....would it mean they wouldn't have to buy as much on the spot market? Maybe a reduction in customer base is a good thing for profitability? ....well in the short term until further generation assets are built to service a larger client base.

Sideshow Bob
28-10-2008, 09:39 PM
Alot of electicity retailers advertising at present.............

BDLBOM
11-11-2008, 07:49 PM
Has there been any speculation of late about another takeover bid from Origin now that they have all that money from Connoco to spend?

Dr_Who
12-11-2008, 06:58 AM
Has there been any speculation of late about another takeover bid from Origin now that they have all that money from Connoco to spend?

LOL.. talks been around for a long time. Buyers can get a cheap energy company from BBP so why pay a premium for CEN?

fish
21-11-2008, 07:01 PM
I sold most of my CEN earlier this year but still hold a few and had intended to get back in sometime next year-

Noticed a major fall and almost complete absence of buyers at close today .
Wondering why they fell so much today-was it for a good reason or just part of the general malaise ?

Dr_Who
20-01-2009, 10:25 AM
Looks like bad news for CEN

CEN
20/01/2009
GENERAL

REL: 0845 HRS Contact Energy Limited

GENERAL: CEN: Hydrology, transmission constraints impact earnings

20 January 2009

HYDROLOGY AND TRANSMISSION CONSTRAINTS IMPACT CURRENT YEAR EARNINGS

Contact Energy today advised that extreme hydrological conditions this year,
combined with transmission constraints, particularly arising from the
unexpected removal of pole one of the inter-island HVDC link in November
2007, have had a negative impact on earnings for the current financial year.

As noted in previous Contact Energy announcements, in August South Island
wholesale prices were significantly higher than North Island prices due to
the combination of severe drought in the South Island and significant
transmission constraints limiting the delivery of lower-priced electricity
from the North Island to the South Island. This resulted in Contact selling
electricity to its lower North Island and South Island customers at a loss
during the winter period.

More recently, higher than average inflows into the South Island hydro dams,
which are currently at their highest levels in 10 years, combined with the
unexpected and continued reduction in aluminium production from the Tiwai
Point aluminium smelter from early November 2008, has resulted in significant
spillage across the South Island hydro dams. The extent of the spill has
been exacerbated by the absence of pole one which has, in this situation,
limited the volume of lower priced electricity that can be transferred from
the southern hydro systems to the North Island.

The lower aluminium production has resulted in up to 180 megawatts of
hydroelectric power, which would have otherwise been utilised at Tiwai, being
unable to find a path to demand due to transmission constraints.

All of these issues have contributed to Contact's hydro stations generating
274 gigawatt hours less in the first half of the financial year than the
prior corresponding period.

"These transmission constraints highlight how important a modern and robust
transmission network is to the efficient operation of the market. We expect
that the loss of pole one will continue to result in constraints between the
islands and therefore volatility in wholesale prices, as well as increased
risk of wholesale price separation between the North and South Islands. Until
pole one is replaced and other transmission constraints are resolved, the
wholesale electricity market will continue to be impacted during periods of
very high and very low hydro inflows," said Mr Baldwin.

In addition to the combination of extreme hydrological conditions and
transmission constraints, recent producer price index (PPI) increases have
resulted in significantly higher than expected gas costs for the 2009
financial year. During the six months ended 31 December 2008 there were two
significant increases in the quarterly PPI leading to an annualised increase
in PPI to 30 September 2008 of 13.6 per cent. The PPI movement is applied to
adjust gas prices in most of Contact's gas purchase contracts. These recent
increases will contribute to Contact paying about 25 per cent more per
gigajoule for gas in the 2009 financial year.

"The current financial year is somewhat unique in that New Zealand's hydro
system has experienced two extremes of hydrology within six months, each at
opposite ends of the scale. The combination of these extremes and increased
gas costs is expected to result in Contact's Earnings before Interest,
Taxation, Depreciation and Financial Instruments (EBITDAF) for the current
year being approximately 15 per cent lower than the last financial year. As a
consequence, Underlying Earnings After Tax is expected to be approximately 20
to 23 per cent less than the last financial year."

Mr Baldwin said that, notwithstanding the lower earnings forecast for the
current year, Contact continues to be extremely well placed to execute its
growth strategy.

"Construction is underway on both the first phase of the Tauhara geothermal
power project near Taupo and Contact's new gas-fired peaking station at
Stratford. In addition, in December 2008, Contact started injecting natural
gas into its recently acquired Ahuroa reservoir which, when fully developed
in 2010, will be New Zealand's first underground gas storage facility.
Excellent progress is also being made on the front-end engineering and design
of the 220 MW Te Mihi geothermal power project.

"Contact is building some of the country's most important infrastructure
projects and, in doing so, investing heavily in the New Zealand economy at a
time when the country needs it most."

Dr_Who
21-01-2009, 06:39 AM
It seems like this impact can continue for sometime. This is very negative for CEN.

Anyone know the debt level of CEN?

tobo
21-01-2009, 12:57 PM
last Financials : June-08
Total Current Assets _______ 551,579
Total Non-current Assets __4,651,666
TOTAL ASSETS __________ 5,203,245

Total Current Liabilities ______ 731,711
- including Borrowings _______ 132,811
Total Non-current Liabilities _1,567,463
- including Borrowings _______ 556,851
TOTAL LIABILITIES ________ 2,299,174
NET ASSETS ______________2,904,071

EBITDAF for that year 567,164

Where can we see more up-to-date figures?

Dr_Who
21-01-2009, 02:12 PM
I hear they have to increase debt level of additional $1.5-2.0 billion to upgrade the infrastructure. In this credit crunch climate with a low NZD, this will hurt CEN big time.

macduffy
21-01-2009, 02:23 PM
I hear they have to increase debt level of additional $1.5-2.0 billion to upgrade the infrastructure. In this credit crunch climate with a low NZD, this will hurt CEN big time.

That's interesting, doc.

What is the source of your info and over what time frame is the capex required?

Dr_Who
21-01-2009, 02:43 PM
LAtest analyst report.

They have to spend the billions on the geothermal development program. This cost will be around $1.5-2.0 billion. I am thinking they may have to look at div cut to finance additional debt and profit downgrade?

macduffy
21-01-2009, 03:20 PM
LAtest analyst report.

They have to spend the billions on the geothermal development program. This cost will be around $1.5-2.0 billion. I am thinking they may have to look at div cut to finance additional debt and profit downgrade?

Macquarie Equities' latest estimate for expenditure on their geothermal development program has increased by 10% from the previous $1.6b so that puts the all-up cost into that range. However, I read this as including expenditure already made on Te Mihi and Tauhara fields. At last Annual Report,CEN talked about investing "$1.2b to develop approx 500 mw of new geothermal generation in the Taupo region over the next five years. ( My emphasis).
I agree though that some reduction in div looks likely from last year's 28cps - a 70% payout ratio.

macduffy
23-02-2009, 10:09 AM
Now this is entirely speculative but CEN's SP hit another 52 week low this morning at $6-08, over $4 below its 52 week high.
Obviously a lot of stocks are at 52 week lows but wouldn't it be a great time for Origin to have another go at a takeover, or perhaps they've given up on that idea?

Disc; Holding a few, mainly as a hedge against power prices.

Dr_Who
23-02-2009, 10:24 AM
Now this is entirely speculative but CEN's SP hit another 52 week low this morning at $6-08, over $4 below its 52 week high.
Obviously a lot of stocks are at 52 week lows but wouldn't it be a great time for Origin to have another go at a takeover, or perhaps they've given up on that idea?

Disc; Holding a few, mainly as a hedge against power prices.


This talk of a T/O has been going round for over 2 years now. I dont think Origin wants to hold CEN with its new owner on board. They may sell it and the possible buyer may wanna takeout CEN, but at what price, no one knows.

Macduffy, want price do one put on CEN as a possible T/O target?

macduffy
23-02-2009, 11:20 AM
This talk of a T/O has been going round for over 2 years now. I dont think Origin wants to hold CEN with its new owner on board. They may sell it and the possible buyer may wanna takeout CEN, but at what price, no one knows.

Macduffy, want price do one put on CEN as a possible T/O target?

Hi doc.

Not sure who this "new owner" is?
The BG offer lapsed back around September and I wasn't aware that anyone else was showing interest. The Origin SP doesn't seem to reflect takeover speculation.
As far as takeover of CEN is concerned its been more than "talk". Origin have made at least 2 attempts, from memory!
No idea what price would be offered but one would think that conditions would never be better from Origin's point of view. Otherwise, we're all in deeper trouble than I care to contemplate!

QOH
24-02-2009, 09:16 PM
Well there was one bright light in the gloom today. I see Tim Saunders is resigning from the CEN board. The headline at Business Day says "Good riddance Tim"

Dr_Who
25-02-2009, 06:55 AM
Well there was one bright light in the gloom today. I see Tim Saunders is resigning from the CEN board. The headline at Business Day says "Good riddance Tim"

Half of the board should go also.

peat
25-02-2009, 07:52 AM
chart looks pretty sick too... i guess thats nothing new really these days. Support levels below here look far away.
Only thing good to be said in the face of all those dark candles is that the RSI is looking very oversold and hasnt reached a new low unlike the share price (hence divergence) but if one was considering buying one should wait for RSI to turn back above -30 line. Another bad day or two could cause RSI to negate that signal.

Theres a 300m bond offer out today aimed at public. Unsecured, unsubordinated, fixed interest bonds.
As has been discussed corporate bonds are hot! lol.

Lawso
25-02-2009, 01:47 PM
Half of the board should go also.
No way. Those that aren't Origin people are Origin stooges.
A further t/o offer is inevitable, IMO, once Origin have driven the price down even further.

The Doctor
25-02-2009, 05:08 PM
No way. Those that aren't Origin people are Origin stooges.
A further t/o offer is inevitable, IMO, once Origin have driven the price down even further.

agree wholeheartedly...its the long game I think with current crisis perfect to depress the s/p and complete the original t/o plan at a discount.A PRG 'freeze out'...omg ..look what happened to PRG!

Seiya
07-03-2009, 09:02 AM
Can anyone tell me how do i go about buying Contact Energy's bond that closes 31st of March? Do i need to contact my broker directly? Thanks.

Grimy
07-03-2009, 09:12 AM
Can anyone tell me how do i go about buying Contact Energy's bond that closes 31st of March? Do i need to contact my broker directly? Thanks.

I think so. Both the brokers I use have put out emails asking for interest for some time now. Direct broking have it on their web site.

macduffy
07-03-2009, 12:59 PM
An ad in today's DomPost solicits enquiries to:

' ...your NZX or other financial advisor, or:
any of the Joint Lead Managers, First NZ Capital Securities Ltd, ABN AMRO NZ Ltd, ANZ, Forsyth Barr Ltd......." etc.

Seiya
10-03-2009, 10:08 PM
Is there anyone interesting in the offer of Contact Energy bonds? Just read the Investment Statement and it sounds ok to me.

Dubdee
11-03-2009, 12:52 PM
Probably a good risk at BBB rating and a liquid issue. However you can buy AMP sub debt at 8.84% for a maturity and this has a A-rating

OldRider
18-03-2009, 10:20 AM
I see the strike price for bonus shares instead of dividend, has been announced today
at $5.66, todays price rise will give a nice benefit for those who did not elect the cash instead, the latest traded price was $5.98

macduffy
18-03-2009, 01:43 PM
I see the strike price for bonus shares instead of dividend, has been announced today
at $5.66, todays price rise will give a nice benefit for those who did not elect the cash instead, the latest traded price was $5.98

Yes, of course there was no need to make an early election on this.
Forms not due to be received until 12 noon on 26 March.

;)

Dr_Who
05-05-2009, 12:11 PM
There is an article in the Otago Times suggesting CEN may need to raise capital.

CAM
05-05-2009, 01:55 PM
There was one the other day suggesting Origin might make a takeover offer with the price lower....suggested a price of $8 would probably be accepted in todays market.
This was on the back of Kirrins takeover of Lion.

BRICKS
08-06-2009, 11:54 AM
IT appears they have water sometimes its not enough and then sometimes to much
you cant win have a lot of Alec and no won buys whats with this stock CEN every
body wants a takeover why not just BUY the stock and love it, Divs seem safe but the price appears dear what am I MISSING..

Dr_Who
08-06-2009, 12:08 PM
I would buy this stock if they replace top level management, esp the directors.

ziggy
08-06-2009, 05:53 PM
CEN must be a buy at $5.67 - up coming reduced results must have been factored into the price. May not be until next year but will surely show good growth.

The Doctor
09-06-2009, 07:30 AM
a full takeover at $7....would succeed imo.

COLIN
09-06-2009, 09:51 AM
CEN must be a buy at $5.67 - up coming reduced results must have been factored into the price. May not be until next year but will surely show good growth.

Ziggy: Welcome to the forum.
The arrival of several newcomers indicates to me a livening interest amongst the investing public in getting back into the market. Another "green shoot".

Dr_Who
09-06-2009, 09:57 AM
I am no chartist, but the trendline says it is going lower.

Maybe guru chartist like Phaephrus can enlighten us.

BRICKS
09-06-2009, 10:17 AM
I am no chartist, but the trendline says it is going lower.

Maybe guru chartist like Phaephrus can enlighten us.

WITH PE`s over 22 & yield just 5% its $1 above its asset backing not good
but the hopefuls keep looking for a takeover since day 1, not the way to GO.

But a very good asset and at right price its a BUY.. but not YET..

macduffy
09-06-2009, 10:28 AM
It appears to have support around $5-50.

I suspect that takeover speculation will see it hold that level.

Phaedrus
09-06-2009, 10:46 AM
CEN has been in a downtrend for about a year, so far. The existing confirmed trendline was reconfirmed a few days ago. Isn't it amazing just how precisely and perfectly linear trends can be? Within this downtrend, CEN has been in a consolidation zone for 3 months, over which time the OBV has continued to fall (this is bearish). It will be interesting to see if the support at around $5.48 holds.

See how the On Balance Volume indicator provided excellent confirmation of all trendline break buy/sell signals - often triggering a few days before, as befits a "leading" indicator.

I routinely run another 10 or so indicators on CEN - but who needs 'em? The situation is crystal clear and more indicators contribute nothing extra.

http://h1.ripway.com/78963/CEN69.gif

Dr_Who
09-06-2009, 02:26 PM
It appears to have support around $5-50.

I suspect that takeover speculation will see it hold that level.

The problem is that the rumours have been doing the rounds for 2-3 years.

Thanks Phaedrus, you are a legend when it comes to graphs.

Yossarian
09-06-2009, 02:49 PM
gosh, it wasn't long ago that CEN overtook TEL as biggest cap in NZ... now $1.4b adrift (and TEL hasn't been too hot in the meantime!)

macduffy
09-06-2009, 03:38 PM
The problem is that the rumours have been doing the rounds for 2-3 years.

QUOTE.

Origin's 51.4% holding and two previous failed attempts at a takeover form a pretty solid basis for these rumours. Or at least, that's how the market sees it.

;)

troyvdh
09-06-2009, 04:23 PM
someone with balls is going to make money here soon.....me thinks that Origin cannot believe their luck......another company gone...gee what would it take to build again what CEN has ......2...3...4....billion.

Stranger_Danger
09-06-2009, 05:26 PM
Anyone looked at the balance sheet lately?

Dr_Who
10-06-2009, 10:23 AM
Anyone looked at the balance sheet lately?

Me think they may need to raise cash. After cash raising finish, then there could (maybe) a possibility that someone, just maybe, will have a look at CEN.

BRICKS
11-06-2009, 09:54 AM
CEN has not dropped its share price as much as mooted, With a bad statement of profit
drop along with all the water still rising and the price HOLDS.. ??

troyvdh
22-07-2009, 04:11 PM
...whats all this about....on reasonable volume to...cant be the div....safe haven perhaps....its got me b.......ed.

fish
22-07-2009, 04:37 PM
...whats all this about....on reasonable volume to...cant be the div....safe haven perhaps....its got me b.......ed.

This share has got little downside but massive upside-could easily be trading again in the $8 to $10 range within 18 months -if not on cash generation from its existing and new assets could be on takeover speculation .

I bought back into it heavily recently ( had to sell last year to convert nzo options )so am likely biased-but as they say do your own research and estimate where cen finances will likely be in 2 years time

AMR
22-07-2009, 07:23 PM
I believe the downtrend may have been broken however my charting program is not up to date. Anyone got a decent chart for us?

PartTimeTrader
14-08-2009, 09:31 AM
I suggest people get in at $6.10 today.

Corporate
14-08-2009, 09:32 AM
I suggest people get in at $6.10 today.

lol why is that?

PartTimeTrader
14-08-2009, 09:44 AM
Because it is oversold today. It is not going to drop below $6 even after the dividend is paid on Aug 28th. It price decline is only due to a small # of holders dumping it today.

Update: Hope someone took the advice, it's gone back up at $6.30. There is a build up of buyers wanting to enter at $6.2+ and and not many willing to sell for less than $6.4.

I'm predicting the same market reaction to CEN SP ex dividend as MFT, that is the share price will drop by less than the value of the dividend. The price of a share like CEN just doesn't perfectly follow the efficient market theory. So Ceteris paribus, there is profit to be made here if you dare.

CEN SP pre div != CEN ex dividend + dividend

Dr_Who
15-08-2009, 08:44 AM
I am very surprise no one on the board have been made accountable for CEN's appalling performance.

Director-fee fallout hurts Contact

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10590906

AMR
15-08-2009, 09:05 AM
Double top with a pullback to support.

_Michael
15-08-2009, 04:39 PM
I am very surprise no one on the board have been made accountable for CEN's appalling performance.

Director-fee fallout hurts Contact

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10590906
Does not surprise me:

These directors have constantly acted against the interest of minority shareholders.

They are puppets for Origin who have twice tried to take the company over completely.

Both occasions at prices that would have proved to be early sell-out.

Holding CEN is therefore a waste of time. It is not being run for the small shareholders.

If you want strong and shareholder friendly governance in utilities, look toward TPW.

TPW consistently act to create shareholder value for long term. Expensive currently though.

duncan macgregor
15-08-2009, 09:00 PM
Does not surprise me:

These directors have constantly acted against the interest of minority shareholders.

They are puppets for Origin who have twice tried to take the company over completely.

Both occasions at prices that would have proved to be early sell-out.

Holding CEN is therefore a waste of time. It is not being run for the small shareholders.

If you want strong and shareholder friendly governance in utilities, look toward TPW.

TPW consistently act to create shareholder value for long term. Expensive currently though. Micheal, Never hold a share that has arrogant out of touch self serving pigs in the trough people running it. There are a few on the NXZ TEL is another that springs to mind. When you see the way companies treat their owners {shareholders} judge them on that, the share price follows. I would think other than complete stupidity that CEN must uptrend. Being a realist i would wait on a buy signal first after a few snouts depart the trough. Macdunk

PartTimeTrader
09-09-2009, 01:16 PM
re entered CEN at 6.05-6.10 today after disposing of my holdings pre & ex dividend.

I suspect today's low price is one of those exploitable spikes in price again.

troyvdh
21-12-2009, 07:21 PM
I am a holder of CEN...yield is nearly 7 %...the 5 year chart looks horrible...but should CEN on a fundamental basis warrant ...oh i dunno..someting like $10 -13....in that to replace this dam would cost significantly more that what was paid for it...I am probably wrong but wasnt construction costs north of 2.8 B...but purchase price less than that...just thinking is all...

Lawso
04-02-2010, 03:22 PM
There's been no discussion here about CEN for quite some time and I suggest some further analysis/comment wouldn't go amiss.
CEN has been a cornerstone of my NZX portfolio for several years. (I first bought in at below 400 and have traded in the mid-900s) It's been flat or sliding for too long, the yield is only so-so and IRG for one is negative on the stock. I guess I've been holding on because of the prospect of a takeover by Origin but if that does eventuate it will be on terms more favourable to ORG than to small holders. I've pretty much decided to reduce, if not quit altogether. What do others think?

percy
04-02-2010, 03:36 PM
every time I get a power bill,I think well at least I have shares in a power company.
sort of stops me worring too much about the size of the bill.would be more upset if I did not own CEN.have a hedging position???!!!

macduffy
04-02-2010, 04:09 PM
every time I get a power bill,I think well at least I have shares in a power company.
sort of stops me worring too much about the size of the bill.would be more upset if I did not own CEN.have a hedging position???!!!

I'm with you on that, percy.

I treat my CEN as much as a hedge against power prices as a "pure" investment.

I expect ORG to have another go at a takeover at some time. Just hope it's not when the SP/market's feeling depressed but I guess that's the likely scenario.

shambles
04-02-2010, 04:38 PM
Recently upgraded to a buy at 6.08.. Valuation just over $8.

It is clear that the worst is behind CEN. The wholesale electricity
market is operating “normally”, electricity demand is rebounding
and customer numbers are increasing again. In addition, CEN’s gas
peaking and gas storage facilities provide operational flexibility and
its geothermal options are the cheapest forms of new generation in
NZ.

fish
04-02-2010, 05:56 PM
[QUOTE=Lawso;291890]There's been no discussion here about CEN for quite some time and I suggest some further analysis/comment wouldn't go amiss.

NOT A GOOD TIME TO SELL-imho

Clearly undervalued -In my opinion the sp is more likely to rise $3 in the next 3 years than it is to fall even 30 cents .
Unlike TPW the sp has been very volatile over the past 2 years-if you must sell try and do it when the share looks expensive rather than todays cheap price-dont let frustration get the better of patience
Ontop of that we have a dividend that equals any bank deposit return .
I accumulated a lot at the end of last year and expect will be holding long-term

Arbitrage
04-02-2010, 07:29 PM
Aspect Huntley value it at $6.25 and recommend to "Hold".

Lawso
04-02-2010, 07:48 PM
Thanks for the comments, people, especially fish's wise words:

if you must sell try and do it when the share looks expensive rather than todays cheap price-dont let frustration get the better of patience
Maybe I'll wait a while.

percy
05-02-2010, 06:38 PM
Lawso.
Craigs have CEN as buy. Target price $7.42

Grimy
05-02-2010, 07:01 PM
After being out for about 2 years (sold at mid$8s) got back in at $5.75 this morning. Had been a holder since first listing, and although I'm definitely not a trader, it seems to be a stock that just goes up and down, so reasonably easy to not make too big a mess of buying and selling.

troyvdh
05-02-2010, 07:17 PM
grimy....me thinks that you will do very very well....a couple of years back some folk thought this outfit were a spec buy at $11.....its still pumping out the stuff and it aint cheaper....cheers...

gonzo56
31-03-2010, 01:12 PM
Can anyone forecast the performance of this stock?
It has'nt been over $6.35 for over a year. Today it hit $6.35; Sell, Hold??

gonzo56
31-03-2010, 05:48 PM
Can anyone forecast the performance of this stock?
It has'nt been over $6.35 for over a year. Today it hit $6.35; Sell, Hold??

It ended the day at $6.40, I guess mostly due to the fact people were excited that 75% of holders choose to keep the bonus shares issued.
I can't decide if this is strong signal to Hold or just hot air...(that will expel tomorrow) Oh well, I think I’ll ride it out.
Btw, I realise I’m talking to myself ;)

macduffy
31-03-2010, 07:09 PM
We're listening, gonzo.

It's just that we can't forecast stock prices!

I hold CEN but largely as a hedge against increases in my power bills, I must admit. So far the bills have increased, CEN rather less so!

Steve
04-04-2010, 11:47 AM
CEN may creep up to 660 - 670 to test its high of the last 12 months before having a bit of a breather?

Anyone know how are the lake levels holding up for winter compared to previous years?

Sideshow Bob
04-04-2010, 03:25 PM
Believe the main hydro lakes such as Pukaki and Tekapo are very close to normal (or the average) for this time of year

mr.needs
06-04-2010, 01:38 PM
Anyone know how are the lake levels holding up for winter compared to previous years?

Check out this site. It shows up to date daily storage levels and weekly inflows.

http://www.electricityinfo.co.nz/comitFta/ftaPage.hydrology

Steve
07-04-2010, 08:46 PM
Check out this site. It shows up to date daily storage levels and weekly inflows.

http://www.electricityinfo.co.nz/comitFta/ftaPage.hydrology

Thanks for that! :)

gonzo56
13-07-2010, 03:31 PM
"The New Zealand Defence Force (NZDF) has given its $8 million a year electricity contract to Contact Energy for the next three years."

Looking good!

CJ
14-07-2010, 08:11 AM
"The New Zealand Defence Force (NZDF) has given its $8 million a year electricity contract to Contact Energy for the next three years."The previous supplier was Meridian (SOE).

The funny thing with SOE's is that assuming Contact is making a profit, it is the government that is missing out as there is leakage into the corporate sector. Taxpayer gets screwed.

Disc: Happy CEN holder.

troyvdh
22-07-2010, 05:34 PM
....I cant help thinking...if my surname was Buffet.....I would be buying like a pig in muck........mmmm...does Buffet have 2 t's....

iceman
23-07-2010, 06:27 AM
As a Contact home customer, I recently received an offer from Trustpower to transfer to them. They offered no ETS or other increases (except GST) for 12 months and a 15% (as opposed to 10%) early payment discount. Contact meanwhile increased their price by over 3% due to ETS. If I pay on time and get early payment discount, I would pay around 9.1% less for my electricity if supplied by Trustpower rather than Contact for at least the next 12 months. I sent an email to Contact as a concerned shareholder and customer and asked if they would respond to Trustpower. I receved NO reply. After waiting for 3 weeks I signed over to Truspower and then a few days later had a ph call from Contact trying to offer me a one off discount on my next power bill !! It appears their customer service is of the same level as their treatment of their shareholders with the Director's fees fiasco a couple of years ago. They seem to have learnt nothing from that debacle and I predict a customer exodus in my area and any other areas where cosutomers may receive similar offers.

Discl: Still holding a small parcel of CEN

percy
23-07-2010, 07:07 AM
....I cant help thinking...if my surname was Buffet.....I would be buying like a pig in muck........mmmm...does Buffet have 2 t's....

Yes 2 t's,no milk or sugar.

Jaa
23-07-2010, 09:29 AM
I'll add another customer story into the mix. Recently moved into a large cold house with gas hot water heating in central Wellington. Did the rational thing and used powerswitch.org.nz to compare the different power and gas companies. We were unsurprisingly rated a heavy usage household and the calculator spat out the following figures:

Meridian: $2,950/yr (least expensive)
Everyone else
Contact: $3,200/yr (most expensive)

Contact was the existing supplier to the house and thus has lost another connection. In the 3 years I have been in Wellington across 3 houses in different suburbs , Meridian has been consistently the cheapest supplier with Contact who are the incumbent for the area I believe consistently being the most expensive.

airedale
23-07-2010, 10:46 AM
Hi guys, I am with Contact in Rangiora, and not too impressed with them. But my daughter in Christchurch gets her power from Powershop. It is not available in all areas yet, but you can buy your power at cheaper than normal rates, or buy it in advance when it is cheaper. You can check the website and stock up when the buy rate is lowest.
Just wondered if anyone here is using Powershop.

Jaa
23-07-2010, 03:10 PM
My previous house was with PowerShop (which is just Meridian) for a about a year.

Its one of those ideas which seems like a good idea at the time but which became quite annoying.

Do I really need to receive emails from my power company twice a week and be able to purchase power whenever I feel like it? A monthly bill for power at a fixed rate actually works fine. Better things to do with the time.

Oiler
23-07-2010, 05:10 PM
Do I really need to receive emails from my power company twice a week and be able to purchase power whenever I feel like it? A monthly bill for power at a fixed rate actually works fine. Better things to do with the time.

Agree with you Jaa. Find a supplier best suited to you and your area.
We can spend so much time chasing our tails to save a few cents. At the end of the day we are talking peanuts.

percy
23-07-2010, 05:58 PM
I am glad you posters feel that way.I thought I was just getting lazy not chasing my tail looking for the best deal.No.1 daughter{the one married to gunnar} told me she rang her power supplier and asked them their rates, as she had been approached by another supplier who said they would give her a better deal.Told if she committed to stay with them for a year they would give her a $200 credit on her account straight away.May get her to do the same for me.!!!

iceman
23-07-2010, 07:43 PM
I also agree with you Jaa, I don't need or want emails or selling/marketing garb from my power supplier each week. I am a customer (and shareholder) that expects competitive prices and reasonable service. I have been with Contact as a customer for about 12 years and a shareholder for 5 years and I DID EXPECT THEM TO RESPOND TO MY EMAIL. I also agree with you Oiler that I it is not worth chasing a saving of a few cents. In my case (see my above post), I am talking about my household saving around $ 325 per year on my electicity costs for my home, by changing from Contact to Trustpower (yes my home is a high user of electricity and I don't apologies for it)................

Hoop
29-12-2010, 08:48 AM
WARNING....
NZ Investment Securities have posted an offer to shareholders offering a cash offer for all your CEN shares for $4.07.
You will probably get the acceptance form in the mail today. It is a short notice offer - closes 6.00pm 7 January 2011

Note: Last sell price for CEN was $6.20

These guys had a go at DNZ in 8/10/2010 with an offer of 75c when the trading price was about 110c. DNZ put out an announcement warning to their shareholders of this unethical practice.....Under New Zealand law it is not illegal to offer to buy securities below their value, although these offers must not be misleading or deceptive. The term "misleading or deceptive" is difficult to interpret..

Edit: I have informed the NZX..I hope I have better luck contacting them this time.

Gasbox
16-01-2011, 08:06 PM
Announced about a week ago....New CEO on his way to Contact, he is the managing director of ERM department (most profitable department and encorporates Pricing, trading and Risk ........) at the Origin sydney office, and has worked here since 1998.
He has been great with Origin, instrumental with the acquisition of Country and Integral and the Gentrader agreements.

Very popular with staff is the general consensus which should help to stem the high senior executive turnover over at Contact I imagine.
I think it is a great move for Contact shareholders....so thought you might appreciate a heads up and brief overview of the new CEO.

Disclosure: have traded under DB, not a contact energy shareholder

macduffy
17-01-2011, 07:10 AM
Yes, let's hope that that's good news for CEN's minority shareholders.

CEN has always been managed in Origin's best interests, naturally enough, which havn't always coincided with those of the smaller shareholders.

troyvdh
15-03-2011, 05:35 PM
call me paranoid...but given whats happening globally ....why/how can a utility company paying a 4+% div.....be sold down on fairly good volume.....but i am willing to bet ($100) that within 12 months Origin will again launch another bid for total ownership.

Number of bets will depend on accepted sanity...determined by me

as an aside ...all "things" are OK with me...(ChCh)

cheers

Xerof
15-03-2011, 05:46 PM
So you will be buying OCFHA's then Troy? Have a read of the prospectus terms and conditions regarding what happens if there is a full takeover of CEN

buy today at 63c, get $1.00 back plus coupon

pleased to hear you're OK (ChCh)

troyvdh
15-03-2011, 06:50 PM
...mmm....sorry but its no and no....i have always detested small print....but I would be trully grateful..if you enlighten me...and perhaps others as well....
cheers troy

gonzo56
22-03-2011, 01:34 PM
Hey,
I was wondering, could someone who is really good at charting please explain the situation with CEN at the moment.
All I know is that the RSI is at the lowest its been for two years, and the SP has been hugging the bottom Bollinger for a while now... What indicators does one look at to pre-empt a reverse? A rise in OBV would be helpfull I guess.. Or do you just wait for a reverse to happen, then jump on the band wagon..
Thanks in advance.

Phaedrus
22-03-2011, 02:59 PM
"Could someone please explain the situation with CEN at the moment."
There is very little to explain. CEN is crabbing sideways in a $5.60 to $6.60 trading range, and has been for 2 years - so far. No-one and no system can tell you how long this trading range will run - or even whether it will break to the upside or the downside.

"All I know is that the RSI is at the lowest its been for two years"
While this is Bearish, it doesn't mean all that much. It will trigger another buy signal when it rises above the OverSold threshold. OverSold RSI values generally mark good entry points for those wanting to buy.

"The SP has been hugging the bottom Bollinger for a while now."
That's what happens when stocks crab sideways at low values.

"What indicators does one look at to pre-empt a reverse?"
Your best bet would be to look for a Bullish Divergence between the price action and an oscillator. There have been none so far, and you cannot guarantee that there will be one when/if CEN does finally turn up.

"A rise in OBV would be helpful I guess."
More than that - any transient CEN rise is going nowhere without it. Note that the OBV has been falling while the stock has been tracking sideways. CEN is still being distributed.

"Do you just wait for a reverse to happen, then jump on the band wagon?"
You have 4 options :-

(1) Buy CEN on oscillator Buy signals and hold, waiting and hoping for an eventual breakout.
Advantage :- You will have bought at lowish prices.
Disadvantage :- You could end up holding a stock that goes nowhere for literally years.

(2) Ditto as above, but sell on oscillator Sell signals, trading the range.
Advantage :- You are honing your trading skills and making a little bit of money.
Disadvantage :- You could well find that you have sold just as CEN finally breaks above the trading range - or, worse, bought just as CEN finally breaks below the trading range.

(3) Buy on any eventual breakout above the $6.60 resistance.
Advantage :- You have not wasted perhaps years holding a stock that has been going nowhere and you have avoided exposing yourself to the risk of CEN breaking to the downside.
Disadvantage :- You will have missed out on the first, say, 90 cents of any continuing uptrend.

(4) Forget about CEN and buy a stock that is already in an uptrend.

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/CEN322.gif

gonzo56
22-03-2011, 08:06 PM
Thank you Phaedrus for that thorough answer.
I just realised this was your thread; you have done a remarkable job filling it with useful knowledge over the years!

Looking back on the chart, I can now clearly see how following the RSI (breaks above 30) could provide a very profitable method of timing purchases. (With CEN anyway)
In the meantime, I will choose #4 “Forget about CEN and buy a stock that is already in an uptrend.” ;)
And thanks again, I’m sure I speak for everyone when I say I greatly appreciate your input.
Gonz

macduffy
23-03-2011, 05:02 PM
Yes, many thanks, Phaedrus.

I hold a few CEN in my long term portfolio, mainly as a hedge against rising electricity and gas bills. A such it's been a bit of a failure but I'm looking at the long terms here - yes, I know, that's when we're all dead - but however!

Next Monday is the deadline to opt out of the "compulsory" reinvestment of the interim distribution in favour of the cash. The price struck for this is $5.84 so I'm taking the cash this time.

percy
23-03-2011, 06:47 PM
Like you macduffy I hold a few in the wet 'nd forget portfolio.However with the yet to be announced rights issue to fund the Te Mihi geothermal project,I felt it best to take the reinvestment as I would get a larger allocation to the rights issue.I also feel the pending rights issue,{the details yet to be announced},has put a damper on the SP.However with prices of all energy sky-rocketing,I am holding CEN as a hedge.I see CEN as a sensible portfolio holding.

macduffy
23-03-2011, 07:17 PM
Fair enough, percy but I doubt that it's the threat of an impending cash issue that's really holding CEN back, after all the SP's been in this channel for over two years now!

I'll take whatever's on offer but I'm not seeking to do any more than that. I'll have the cash, thanks, particularly as the strike price is still higher than the current SP.

percy
23-03-2011, 08:22 PM
Fair enough, percy but I doubt that it's the threat of an impending cash issue that's really holding CEN back, after all the SP's been in this channel for over two years now!

I'll take whatever's on offer but I'm not seeking to do any more than that. I'll have the cash, thanks, particularly as the strike price is still higher than the current SP.

I think you are right,but I am happy to slowly add to my holding.

gonzo56
28-04-2011, 09:28 AM
28 April 2011

CONTACT LAUNCHES ENTITLEMENT OFFER TO SUPPORT FUTURE GROWTH

Contact Energy today announced a 1 for 9 pro rata renounceable entitlement
offer of new Contact Energy shares which will be open to existing New Zealand
and Australian shareholders, at an offer price of NZ$5.05 per share.

Contact Energy plans to raise approximately NZ$350 million from the offer.
The funds sought in the offer will enable Contact Energy to strengthen its
balance sheet for investment in growth opportunities, the first part of which
is the 166 megawatt (MW) Te Mihi power station to be constructed by mid-2013.
http://www.nzx.com/markets/NZSX/CEN/announcements/4936181/Contact-launches-entitlement-offer-to-support-future-growth

Snoopy
28-04-2011, 11:24 AM
28 April 2011

CONTACT LAUNCHES ENTITLEMENT OFFER TO SUPPORT FUTURE GROWTH

Contact Energy today announced a 1 for 9 pro rata renounceable entitlement
offer of new Contact Energy shares which will be open to existing New Zealand
and Australian shareholders, at an offer price of NZ$5.05 per share.

Contact Energy plans to raise approximately NZ$350 million from the offer.
The funds sought in the offer will enable Contact Energy to strengthen its
balance sheet for investment in growth opportunities, the first part of which
is the 166 megawatt (MW) Te Mihi power station to be constructed by mid-2013.


And the share price rises 11c! Interesting. A very unusual reaction to a cash issue from NZ investors. Perhaps it was less than expected and shareholders are rushing to pick up more of a good thing? Perhaps more impressive was a commitment to return cash to shareholders who don't take up their rights, via a tender for untaken up shares. I have never seen that done before either. An NZ company who thinks in terms of their shareholders best interests? Wow!

SNOOPY

winner69
28-04-2011, 11:40 AM
And the share price rises 11c! Interesting. A very unusual reaction to a cash issue from NZ investors. Perhaps it was less than expected and sharehodlers are rushing to pick up more of a good thing? Perhaps more impressive was a commitment to return cash to shareholders who don't take up their rights, via a tender for untaken up shares. I have never seen that done before either. An NZ company who thinks in terms of their shareholders best interests? Wow!

SNOOPY

We may be learning from Aussies who do this sort of deal quite a lot ..... I rememebr I got something like 6 cents a share when Orica did this few years ago

KS
28-04-2011, 11:47 AM
And the share price rises 11c! Interesting. A very unusual reaction to a cash issue from NZ investors. Perhaps it was less than expected and sharehodlers are rushing to pick up more of a good thing? Perhaps more impressive was a commitment to return cash to shareholders who don't take up their rights, via a tender for untaken up shares. I have never seen that done before either. An NZ company who thinks in terms of their shareholders best interests? Wow!

SNOOPY

This was done by AIA in early 2010. They returned 17c per right not taken up or sold.
If you only get a few rights, the fee for selling them yourself cuts into your return.

macduffy
28-04-2011, 01:37 PM
Yes, a good move. It looks like CEN are finally taking note of their fraught shareholder/public relations and have decided it was about time to give regard to their minority shareholders.

Theoretical rights price looks to be about 9c at present.

macduffy
29-04-2011, 07:56 AM
No one's picked me up on my howler yesterday re the theoretical rights price.

It is of course 72c, based on a cum rights price of $5.85, an application price of $5.05 and an average cost of $5.77.

percy
29-04-2011, 08:13 AM
[QUOTE=macduffy;344101]Yes, a good move. It looks like CEN are finally taking note of their fraught shareholder/public relations and have decided it was about time to give regard to their minority shareholders.

Yes was a good announcement.

CJ
29-04-2011, 10:24 AM
No one's picked me up on my howler yesterday re the theoretical rights price.

It is of course 72c, based on a cum rights price of $5.85, an application price of $5.05 and an average cost of $5.77.But you get 72c for each 9 shares you own so 8c per current share so we let you away with it.

Interesting to see the shareprice spike but then fall below openning. I think that is probably right - the announcement was expected so should have been fully priced in.

macduffy
29-04-2011, 01:09 PM
You're too kind CJ, but thanks anyway!

Although the issue was expected, the ratio and discount to SP were unknown so it did leave a bit of room for market reaction. I didn't see an ex-issue date announced but it will be interesting to see how the SP moves meanwhile.

Correction: Record date is 9 May.

CJ
29-04-2011, 01:18 PM
Although the issue was expected, the ratio and discount to SP were unknown so it did leave a bit of room for market reaction. I didn't see an ex-issue date announced but it will be interesting to see how the SP moves meanwhile.Maybe my maths skills aren't upto date but I dont understand this.

On the basis they are pro-rata, why does the ratio and exercise price matter. Your existing shareholding will be diluted but by the exact amount that you receive under the issue.

The only negative is if they ask for so much money that you cant afford to participate.

What am I missing. How would it be different if it was a (say) 2/9 split with an exersize price of $2.525.

macduffy
29-04-2011, 02:11 PM
Well, if the entitlement ratio was 2 for 9 and the exercise price was $2.525, the theoretical rights price, based on that cum issue price of $5.85, would be 61c, not 72c.

I was really referring to the effect that these factors have on the cum issue price ( and therefore the theoretical rights price) but accept that with the approximate size of the issue already flagged, there wasn't a lot of room for manoeuvre. Hence my "bit of room for market speculation".

macduffy
06-05-2011, 04:58 PM
CEN rights had a good first day's trading, ending at 86c.