CHA Charlies

[Flying Goat]

My guess is that they are about to formally announce that a deal has been signed for distribution of Phoeinex (and possibly Charlies) in Japan. Have been wrong before, but lately have been right more often... :D

FG

[Sideshow Bob]

Walked past McD Cafe today, and had a branded Cherlies fridge, which you could see from the street. Wasn't there a week ago.

Might have to look at CHA a bit harder...

[metro]

ssb: will be 40c by end of the year...and hopefully sooner. japanese market has exponentially better prospects than the NZ market

[nelehdine]

I might jump in too ... 100k at 25c wouldn't be a bad idea ... stop loss at 19c just in case it goes pear shaped ... or should that be orange shaped !! hahahaha

[spaceconquerer]

So Charlies is trying to establish a foothold in the alcoholic beverages market. They are also in discussions with a Japenese conglomerate about a distribution deal.
Now this is probably way off the mark but could they be in discussions with Kirin?

[Greyhound]

quote:Originally posted by spaceconquerer

So Charlies is trying to establish a foothold in the alcoholic beverages market. They are also in discussions with a Japenese conglomerate about a distribution deal.
Now this is probably way off the mark but could they be in discussions with Kirin?


Who?? [?]

[spaceconquerer]

Kirin Brewery

http://www.kirin.co.jp/english/company/corp/04core1.html

[Greyhound]

Cheers.

[Underlord]

Hi Guys

Kirin is a a possibility have big plans for growth over the next two years.

Well worth a read
http://www.kirin.co.jp/english/ir/news_release061219_1.html

This is only speculation though so please keep that in mind

Regards

UL

[Footsie]

something big is up

Large volume through today.....

perhaps an insto?

p/e is largely irrelevant for beverage coys..... coke etc will buy brands
phoenix is easily exported.....

42 below was probably never going to make money and that sold for what 138m??

"substantial increase in volumes" quote from chairman
, new deal in Japan + RTDs

all bodes well

half year result will be interesting

like i said earlier this could go to 35c

[ratkin]

Very interesting read ,both kirin and charlies are looking to expand, would seem the perfect match, they even have silly pictures on their website !!
Introducing organic drinks from clean green new zealand could be one initiative, even organic alcoholic ready made drinks. Lots of possibilities.
I hope it is Kirin , they look the buisness, expanding in china too.

get in there charlies

[hairdresser]

From memory

1. Lion Breweries pulled out of the bidding war for Independent Liquor once the price went past $1.2b in mid November 06.
2. Two x CHA directors purchased moderate share parcels at the end of November.
3. Lion are keen to get into the RTD segment and could put Charlies juice and water into their bars, and maybe mix Phoenix with some Vodka [it might be worthwhile testing some]
4. Lion already service the supermarket channel
5. c60% of Charlies shares are closely held making a takeover a virtual done deal.
6. Lion are owned by Kirin
7. Since November Charlies share price has gone from 14c to 25c.

Cheers

[metro]

Footsie: I'm disappointed. You always get it wrong! It will go to at least 40c! :D


quote:Originally posted by Footsie

like i said earlier this could go to 35c

[Steve]

Would it be worth the time to do an exercise of taking FTB's ratio of Sale Price against Revenue? and using this ratio as a multiplier against CHA's Revenues?

It may give an unscientific comparison of CHA value

[spector]

quote:Originally posted by Steve

Would it be worth the time to do an exercise of taking FTB's ratio of Sale Price against Revenue? and using this ratio as a multiplier against CHA's Revenues?

It may give an unscientific comparison of CHA value


The value of FTB had nothing to do with volume.... it was all about 'brand'

[Steve]

That's correct, however revenue can be a driver of 'brand' value

[metro]

I believe on March 31st CHA will be between 0.35 and 0.40. Will be interesting to see how close I am!

[The Doctor]

looks like 'sentiment' prevails over fundamentals...spin over profits...almost unbelievable...a coy that HAS NEVER TURNED A PROFIT...has huge,strong competition...pst...maybe they're going to export O.J ...to Florida,Q/Land and Brazil!:D[xx(]

[metro]

Share Valuation is about future growth rates, future potential and future earnings. Given this listed coy was Spectrum Resources how relevant is the past? With the merger with Phoenix Organics and the other deals this coy is working on - the future looks bright for this little Gem. Go Japan! Go Kirin! and still some way to go with the share price. Still time to catch the train but be quick! very quick! :)


quote:Originally posted by The Doctor

looks like 'sentiment' prevails over fundamentals...spin over profits...almost unbelievable...a coy that HAS NEVER TURNED A PROFIT...has huge,strong competition...pst...maybe they're going to export O.J ...to Florida,Q/Land and Brazil!:D[xx(]

[The Doctor]

mentioning an international giant like Kirin in the same sentence as a 'pennydreadful' like CHA...is like mentioning Steve McIvor and David Tua!!:D[V]

[COLIN]

quote:Originally posted by The Doctor

mentioning an international giant like Kirin in the same sentence as a 'pennydreadful' like CHA...is like mentioning Steve McIvor and David Tua!!:D[V]


So what would you say about lumping together Bacardi and FTB? Or Daone and Frucor (for those who have longer memories)?

[metro]

quote:Originally posted by The Doctor

mentioning an international giant like Kirin in the same sentence as a 'pennydreadful' like CHA...is like mentioning Steve McIvor and David Tua!!:D[V]


:D

[ratkin]

Im still upset about Frucor , i ploughed into that stock and saw a great future, many said V was a fad , notice it still very much aroud.
Cannot believe the way they sold out for so little. Sure we doubled our money but could of been so much better.

No doubt charlies will end up going the same way, it not really a good thing though , would rather give them the chance to shine in the long term

[The Doctor]

he 'ramping technique' being employed by CHA holders..is similar to PLUS ...vague 'talks'...veiled promises'...with the exception Stefan is quite explicit in his disclaimers'...seems to be effective![:o)]

[asianinvestor]

I am buying charlies at 24 cents as my thought is that they pass the "sniff" test. I know Japan market and know it is hard to find good juice in Tokyo. The Independent article says they got trade & Enterprise backing so I guess marketing already done. Article quotes 180M plus PA target sales with industry profit margin of 15%. With PE of 15 it gives Charlies $1.40 a share!! And yet 180M sales in Japan is chicken feed (about 10% of premium juice market which is about only 1% of their total juice market).

[ericlin10]

charlies share price 2 cent down from it all time high is that some goingto happen soon or just profit taker

[Seiya]

I got in at 24 cents as well.

[The GrandMaster]

I also got in at 23 cents yesterday. Seems worth the punt.

TGM

[ratkin]

Stock has had a good run up lately and was due for a rest. Time to sit and wait for the good news

[The Doctor]

wait for 'good news'?...if its profitability,or mkt share...don't hold your breath[:o)]...if however..42B 'spin' and hype' blows your skirt up...enjoy!Phoenix is the 'jewel ' in this pennydreadful...but was acquired at FULL VALUE +![B)]

[Jay]

Still going down :( another cent so far this morning. Make that 2 cents now!

I am out for now after getting in at a shade under 14c average - has hit my stop :) for now!

[asianinvestor]

The Chairman's announcement did not deny any of the details in the Independent article so we can take it that the specific details are accepted as fact. He did say the deal was at the early stage but every deal is at early stage until delivery. If "documents sighted" by Independent are in place then Japanese conglomerates do not waste time so I expect contract announcement soon, that's why I am buying now. Do the maths on the announced deal figures people and make your own minds up. My maths say undervalued shares just waiting for deal to be formerly announced.

[The Doctor]

jap 'conglomerates'!..[:o)]funny as a play...won't get to 1st base...nice ramp strategy though.:D

[metro]

too many rampers and even worse an equal number of down rampers eh Doc ;)

waiting on the Kirin Japanese announcement...25c will seem a cheap entry price!

[metro]

valuation anyone?

[Steve]

I am hoping that I will grab some at 20, as I think that this is just a breather from the recent run up. Wait and see what tomorrow brings me...

[hairdresser]

Its likely the Californian orange crop crisis may be affecting the share price. The cost of CHA raw materials will definitely be increasing. But so will costs for the other juice companies.

[Steve]

quote:Originally posted by hairdresser

Its likely the Californian orange crop crisis may be affecting the share price. The cost of CHA raw materials will definitely be increasing. But so will costs for the other juice companies.

How much do CHA import from California? I thought that they imported from Australia & Miami

[hesiod]

Looking at the price trends at PnS juice costs is on the rise. Used to be able to buy 3 Litres OJ bog standard @$3.99 now $4.99 +. Tomato up as well 30% +. So some costs increases now being passed on - more to come.

[The Doctor]

I believe Brazil produces/exports more O.J than the rest of the world combined...Charlies has no serious export prospects re O.J!..FREIGHT,DISTRIBUTION costs will ensure that.'Charlies' is merely a 'brand name'..has good awareness in NZ...ONLY...and could not compete overseas...too small .contracts out production...the realistic valuation of CHA...is apx 5 cents..with 'the wind up its...A!:D

[COLIN]

quote:Originally posted by The Doctor

I believe Brazil produces/exports more O.J than the rest of the world combined...Charlies has no serious export prospects re O.J!..FREIGHT,DISTRIBUTION costs will ensure that.'Charlies' is merely a 'brand name'..has good awareness in NZ...ONLY...and could not compete overseas...too small .contracts out production...the realistic valuation of CHA...is apx 5 cents..with 'the wind up its...A!:D

And all the while the good Doctor keeps quietly adding to his stack of CHA shares.

[ratkin]

Problem with orange crop is in florida , not california.

Its not the prspect of orange juice in japan that is driving the price. Its the planned move into alcoholic mixers , organics and combinations of.
Charlies is growing in the lucrative area of coffee shops etc where there is a higher margin than the stuff sold in the supermarkets.

There was always going to be a bout of profit taking at some stage , the stock has run very hard. I was able to buy in sep or oct for 10c , its more than doubled since then so its not suprising people are taking profits.

I was suprised how quickly it went to 25c was delighted enough to see it break through 20c.
Good things are happening , and its likely those selling will be back in a few months moaning that they sold out too soon

[metro]

doc: you need to front up and justify your valuation of 5 cents (that valuation is laughable)

We know the doc was buying at 21 cents and now the stock is on the rise again. Will be 23 cents on Monday which is still a very cheap entry.

Still time to catch the train...21/22/23 in a few months time will look like a very cheap price for this stock.

[The Doctor]

well we know big 'Charlie' dumped heaps at 10 cents and less,allowing for the fact Charlies was haemorraging apx $4-500,000 p.an and was in the red for $2mil b4 floatation(SALVATION) and accepting the 'skim' from promoters...you can ascertain that the real 'value' of the share is about 1/2 of 10 cents....everyone has had a 'drink'...Redbull dist,Phoenix,King,Ellis,Liponika...at who's expense?...boiler room stock and tactics...constant sizzle...NO SAUSAGE![xx(]

[Placebo]

Doc we know from your incoherent rantings on the previous FTB thread that you have no concept of what a brand is, or its value. You may not value a brand -- but clearly others do... and they have an awful lot more nous and MONEY than you do. E.g. Bacardi!

I expect you would have made the same uninformed comments about companies like Coca Cola (it's only water and suger for Chrissakes!) in the past...

[:o)][:o)]

[foodee]

Placebo
Good on you - give the 'quack' doc a dose of your medicine ehhhhh 'placebo'....[}:)]

cheers

[Footsie]

Find me a share that doesn't have a pullback
they all do....

I'm happy for CHA to pull back to 20c and consolidate.....

like metro and other say, slightly paraphrased.... in 6 months time 20-25c will seem cheap

I have heard that PepsiCo is looking to expand in Australasia....

[Footsie]

MoSteph

Dont know where you get 250% from...????

even if you take someone who bought at 10c...... at 25c thats errr 150% ???

At the end of the day there is one rule which I am finding is consitent across all markets regarless of conditions....

so long as profit continues to increase year after year, so will the s/p.
sure at some point the stock will be overvalued and at others it will be undervalued.

so what i 'm saying here is if last yr CHA made -250k and this year the make $1m and the following they make $3m..... the price will continue to climb

Also lets not forget its taken 20 years to create the phoenix brand and 7 for charlies....
Pepsico or Coke could buy these brands and absorb them into their portfolio then ramp distribution throughout australasia.....

ie buy cha for 100m and in 5 years turn it into a brand worth $1b

Follow the trend MON, FRU, OYB, FTB, indepedent liquor ....next CHA, DLG

IMHO if cha still listed in 2 years the price will be 50c+

[ratkin]

quote:OJ is a precarious market subject to commodity prices, heavy competition, and has few barriers to entry. For CHA, being a premium product and all, if the economy turns, fancy pants OJ is the first luxury to go for many families.

Charlies has consistantly been top in any poll which asks consumers to name a brand of orange juice.
Its not just the supermarkets , they are building a wide network of fridges in coffee shops, garages etc. Pheonix is now available even in council owned librarys which have cafes.

Of course if the economy tanked i agree orange juice and organic drinks would suffer, however this isnt going to happen anytime soon , virtually full employment and by the time it does charlies will of diversified both geographically and product wise, so there will be less reliance on sales of orange juice in NZ

[The Doctor]

quote:Originally posted by Placebo

Doc we know from your incoherent rantings on the previous FTB thread that you have no concept of what a brand is, or its value. You may not value a brand -- but clearly others do... and they have an awful lot more nous and MONEY than you do. E.g. Baca

I expect you would have made the same uninformed comments about companies like Coca Cola (it's only water and suger for Chrissakes!) in the past...

[:o)][:o)]


comparing CHA to Coke![:o)]If you hadn't noticed -CAHSANZ is a very small, very competitive mkt...in ALL drinks sectors...the competition is well resourced and does not sit by watching mkt share erode.Charlies has good brand awareness in this tiny mkt...cheaper products taste as good.

[Placebo]

quote:Originally posted by The Doctor


quote:Originally posted by Placebo

Doc we know from your incoherent rantings on the previous FTB thread that you have no concept of what a brand is, or its value. You may not value a brand -- but clearly others do... and they have an awful lot more nous and MONEY than you do. E.g. Baca

I expect you would have made the same uninformed comments about companies like Coca Cola (it's only water and suger for Chrissakes!) in the past...

[:o)][:o)]


comparing CHA to Coke![:o)]If you hadn't noticed -CAHSANZ is a very small, very competitive mkt...in ALL drinks sectors...the competition is well resourced and does not sit by watching mkt share erode.Charlies has good brand awareness in this tiny mkt...cheaper products taste as good.


So what are you saying Doc? Charles has brand value and therefore high value? This would contradict everything you've said all along! Yes the competition is well resourced -- but that's not to say a new player can't come along and succeed -- as they already are.

Who compared Charlies to Coke? Read it again Doc. The reference is to illustrate the value of a brand vs tangibles. Coke isn't about bricks and mortar, it's about intangibles like lifestyle and status and identity. Charlies (and its associated brands) are the same IMO. Particularly for the likes of the super-premium organics range.

Prescribe yourself a sedative and lie-down, Doc. [}:)]

[asianinvestor]

I agree with Placebo, and I don't know where Doc is coming from. CHA have done a great job growing from nothing to 18M turnover in 6 yrs. It is a volume business and profits come from volume, in this case export markets and export markets pay a premium for good new products, especially Japan where most juice is from concentrate with added sugar and water.

There is a huge global market for organic products and there is no other firm doing it right. Comparing 100% fruit product with coke is a bit fruity! Even comparing CHA with simply squeezed is wrong as Charlies tastes better and people can discern quality in such products and pay a premium for it. And nothing compares to the Pheonix range taste.

T&ENZ pick winners and have backed CHA to $200K two years ago so that is a lot of export market development money and time and CHA match $ for $ ... so that is why I picked CHA as they are investing in growth with a product that has a competitive advantage. T&E look for huge multiples of sales from funding so I say T&E have picked their winner here and I say "Good one CHA" and I am looking forward to the deal announcement.

[Placebo]

For the record, I agree with me too.

[organic.M]

Like the product. Seriously entertained an investment, but simply looks over-priced at these levels.

Food for thought...

Danone bought FRUCOR in early 2002 for $294m. Full year revenue at the time was $228m (up 27%!) and generated after-tax earnings of $11.7m.

In comparison, CHA's revenue for 6 months to June was $10.6m. Erring on side of generosity (given seasonality), lets double that to give $21m for a full year.

Roughly speaking then, we have a business about one-tenth the size Frucor was in 2001 - yet today's market price of 22c values the company at $63m.

Assuming Charlies starts making a profit and assuming margins similar to Frucor (NPAT/sales = 0.051), which doesn't seem unreasonable, CHA would generate a net after-tax profit on current revenue of $1.07m - equiv to a p/e of 58.

I understand this a growing business (as best I can work out, sales growth in the order of 20-25% p.a.), but with sales circa $20m and yet to demonstrate a profit I find it hard to agree with a market cap/valuation of $63m.

Not worth 22c in my book. not this year anyway.

[The Doctor]

nice logic/fact...Organic...holds no sway with the 'rose coloured[:p] rampers' though!

[Footsie]

wait till the half yr result organic before casting judgement....

if their is a link up with Japan or RTD's 63m will seem cheap

... FTB was sold for what 130m on revenue of less than $20m with losses of $2m

global market has moved a long way since 2002. prices are higher . plenty of cash around
Danone got a steal.

[ratkin]

Those enthusiastic about the stock are regarded as rose tinted rampers, while those rubbishing it see themselves as experienced realists. I know which camp i would rather be in, fact is that
While doctor et al have been critisizing the stock it has risen over 100%.

28 FEB half year results are out, before then news of further developments are very likely.

[The Doctor]

42b stumbled upon another 'Warwick Fairfax'...the odds of CHA doing so are negligible...the Jap 'junket is just taking advantage,y not!...organic's figures suggest my 'valuation' of 5c per share...may actually be on the high side ...at least p.e wise...especially with very limited growth /profit prospects.:D[8]

[spaceconquerer]

What makes the market is opposing views. However when buyers such as Collins asset management, Mr Laffaire (can't remember his name), and board members are buying in on reasonable volume between 10c - 18c then it's likely they see value there....surely?

[biker]

According to documents sighted by The Independent, on 4 October 2006 Charlie’s signed a business alliance memorandum with a major Japanese conglomerate with significant distribution capability.

While the memorandum isn’t binding, it sets out a broad action plan of what needs to be done for Charlie’s to be distributing products in Japan early in the second half of 2007.

The two parties signed a confidentiality agreement on 5 October.

While Lepionka did confirm Charlie’s is keen to break into the Japanese market, he added it is just one of a number of export markets the company is actively targeting.

“We’re exploring the Japanese market as one of several markets,” he said.

He said much the same thing at last month’s annual shareholders meeting: “We are also fielding significant inquiries from Europe, USA and Japan , and in conjunction with our strong relationship and ongoing support from NZTE we are actively pursuing a range of opportunities.”




29/8/06 T Cook (director) bought 200,000 shares
9/11/06 T Kerridge (L'affare) bought 4.4% of the Company
28/11/06 E K Van Arkel (Chairman) bought 900,000 shares
30/11/06 D Foreman (director) bought 1,000,000 shares

All idiots;)

Go Charlies

[The Doctor]

not idiots...just 'speculators'!'Significant enquiries from Europe...'what does that really mean....yes absolutely nothing...same as the 'agreements'...all window dressing/ramp..idea...approach Solid Energy NZ ..about stencilling 'Charlies' on sacks of coal ...and then start exporting to....Newcastle![:o)]:D...WOW these lil ole NZ brands are 'famous' globally![:o)][:o)][xx(]

[Stranger_Danger]

Lepionka is the bloke who knows the industry better than probably anyone in the country.

When did he last buy a Charlies share?

No offence to Diane Foreman, but out of her and Lepionka, when it comes to evaluating the prospects for Charlies I know who I consider to be the smart money.

Disc : None

[biker]

Well that particular smart money has about 47 million shares and over 26% of the Company.

[Steve]

Well I hope that CHA doesn't get into LEMONS...[:p]

[Footsie]

Stephan already has 15% of the company

maybe he has a mortgage and kids and doesnt have a spare $200k like some of the more wealthy directors!

additionally, smart money doesn't become smart money without first doing a lot of things right...;)

[The Doctor]

hey remember Feltex..a 'brand'!:D..actually made a 'profit':D..$1.70 to 'ZERO'!...had their own production facilities as well unlike...some![xx(]

[Steve]

quote:Originally posted by The Doctor

hey remember Feltex..a 'brand'!:D..actually made a 'profit':D..$1.70 to 'ZERO'!...had their own production facilities as well unlike...some![xx(]

True, but FTX was also saddled with DEBT!

[ratkin]

quote:Lesson 1: Remember, BASHERS NEVER BASH A BAD STOCK. Watch the board for stocks with no potential. They never have any bashers. Bashers only go after stocks that are going upwards or have excellent potential to go up. Bashers get left behind, so they want to bring the price down.

Above part of a posting about people who bash stocks on forums

[The Doctor]

..PSSST..hey fellas ..have you heard about the new Vodka ..'in town'..26000 below..get on board..NZ the land of Voddie!:D[V]

[Steve]

quote:Originally posted by The Doctor

..PSSST..hey fellas ..have you heard about the new Vodka ..'in town'..26000 below..get on board..NZ the land of Voddie!:D[V]


REALLY?! How do I get some?[:p]

[Footsie]

What are people picking for the result???

[Nevl]

small profit. nothing spectacular tho.

[Steve]

Shareprice getting pushed back down...

[The Doctor]

quote:Originally posted by Footsie

What are people picking for the result???


expect the 'usual' for 'boiler room 'type stock...just wait till...'next year'![xx(]:D

[Footsie]

what price would others consider buying more??? if it comes back further

for me that would be around 16c....

given the recent price action it will probably test 20c and maybe come back to 18c even before the result

[The Doctor]

if the price is dropping back u can guarantee the usual NZ insider trading factor.i.e result NO GOOD..would consider 'buying in' at 1cent.

[hairdresser]

As no one gives forecasts in NZ anymore you have to make you own assessment of value.

My "guesses" are as follows:

Dec 05 Jun 06 Dec 06 Jun 07
Revenue 7.9 10.7 14.2 19.2
EBITDA -.1 .5 2.0 3.3

Should have no problem continuing growth for next 2 years with line extensions, alcopops, exports??

They still have to do it but with Ted, Diane and Mr Cook onboard I'm not sweating.

Cheers

[ratkin]

Drifting price just some profit taking by the shorter term traders and those too nervous to wait for the good news.

[Steve]

quote:Originally posted by Footsie

What are people picking for the result???

When is the result expected?

[KJ]

Feb 28

[Steve]

So there should be some shareprice volatility up until then?

[hairdresser]

If theres a run up to earnings it may be worthwile cashing in part of your position as it probably means the market has factored in any potential good news. If it drops may be worth buying.

Insiders wont be trading until after earnings.

My estimate of fair value is 22c plus 3c premium for potantial good news.

Cheers

[metro]

hairresser: can you justify your fair value estimate of 22c

PS: I tend to agree with you

[The Doctor]

of course he can't ..'bad hair day'..these 'pennydreadfulls remind me of Bangkok boiler room ..'Gary Player' Int...a known' brand' pump and dump'...where else in THE WHOLE WIDE WORLD can u list a lossmaking coy contracting out production of Orange juice[xx(]...on the back of 'brand awareness'that is getting 'flogged' on mkt share .is perceived as expensive and relys on 'spin' to maintain the over valued s/p...[:0][:0][:0][:0][:0][:0][:0][:0][xx(][:o)]

[hairdresser]

Conservative valuation:

Base:
NPAT full year Dec 06 $1.1m
Revenue full year Dec 06 $24m

Assumptions:

25% average annual revenue growth [results in annual sales of $73m]
50% growth in EPS [gives NPAT of $8.9m in 5 years]
10% fixed cost annual increase
Small improvements in GM% from high production voluems
Sensible line extensions and new products taking advantage of existing retail distribution
No export growth
No alcopops
No stragetic alliances
No acquisitions
6% return required over 90day BB
No growth after 5 years
Using a simple DCF yields firm value of around $62m or around 22cps.

NB High growth stock valuations are sensitives to small changes in assumptions [both ways]. You could try running your own scenarios. It does require a little more thought than diving the NTA by 2.

If you think this is too bullish don't buy...

On the subject of scams here is a link to article about a high tech company that floated bought up obscure companies from parties related to prinipals made misleading statements and projections. No its not PLS but there are many similaries.

http://www.fool.com/investing/value/2006/08/24/dont-bet-on-this-horse.aspx

[ratkin]

Do any of you drink their fruit smoothies?

Next time you are in the supermarket buy one of the berry and fruit ones. They taste great first thing in the morning. Might calm your jangling nerves

[metro]

many, many missing steps here

sorry i dont have my own valuation for this stock - but i am amazed how this particular stock polarises opinions


quote:Originally posted by hairdresser

Using a simple DCF yields firm value of around $62m or around 22cps.

[The Doctor]

22cps..get real
'noddy'your ;'assumptions' mean JACK!...THIS SHARE IS boiler room hype!take the money and run..PLUS sms..is similar but they haven't even sold ANY
THING YET!GOOD OLE kEN THE 'RIPPER'!

[organic.M]

hairdresser, where does your FY06 profit of $1.1m come from?

Above analysis looks flawed to me - a NPAT of $8.9m on sales of $73m...I don't think industry margins would support this.

[Footsie]

lets just wait for the result ....... and let the numbers do the talking

i always say, when you buy, take a 2 year view..........

would u be comfortable buying at 22c........ie are u comfy the price will be over 22c n 2 years

i'd have to say that yes, it will be (if it lasts that long and hasnt been taken out)


Note: phoenix EBITDA margin is 23%,,,,, CHA is 0%

[The Doctor]

noticing increased importation of juices from Sth East Asia now...'blood orange juice'...delicious...Tipco...Thai coy...and also tetra paks from Malaysia,etc.

[metro]

say all u like Doc...im out at 0.22c

[Footsie]

metro....... have you sold???

[metro]

stop loss triggered footsie so yes i'm out
might be better opportunities elsewhere

i never hold long term...in a bull market any monkey can do that
been a holder for about 2 mths now

[hairdresser]

I've sold down a bit over the last few weeks [terminal tax due tomrrow!! don't forget!!]. Will hang on to the rest until after ER in hope that they will have some concrete(ish) news on alcopops or new products. And pump some cash more into BIO, and maybe swing trade on CHA. I would really like to see something concrete from the team before I up my valuation.

I think I bought in at the same time as Footsie [largely on his commentary so thanks very much] so its been a pretty good 6 months.

[Steve]

quote:Originally posted by hairdresser

I've sold down a bit over the last few weeks [terminal tax due tomrrow!! don't forget!!].

Paying terminal tax on 7th Feb is inefficient when you could pay it on 7th April and bank the interest in the meantime...

[Footsie]

FYI

I have also been reducing my stake.....

I now have 1/3 left, but will probably keep these for now.

unfortunately my timing wasnt perfect and I should have been disciplined enough to sell at 25c, alas no, but does anyone ever have perfect timing??????
thats a question too.

I wait with baited breath for the numbers at the result....... im interested to see what "considerably" higher sales means.
if things change either way, i'll consider increasing or decreasing my remaing shares

[hairdresser]

Steve
What about UOMI?

[Steve]

quote:Originally posted by hairdresser

Steve
What about UOMI?

You can get the deferred terminal tax payment by having an EOT arrangement, which is generally the case if there is an agency involved.

Usually UOMI is only an issue if it is a Company or Trust paying the tax, and is deductable if incurred as a result of business activities.

It all comes down to whether you can make more elsewhere than the UOMI you will pay I guess?

[hairdresser]

Thanks for the info
Will discuss with the acct for next time.
The interest/UOMI is 2/5 of fa anyway, but I right now would have preferred to have the cash myself for longer. Doing renovations as well so cash is tighter than normal for the time of year.

At least CHA has had some liquidity.

[Steve]

quote:Originally posted by hairdresser

Thanks for the info
Will discuss with the acct for next time.
The interest/UOMI is 2/5 of fa anyway, but I right now would have preferred to have the cash myself for longer.

It is probably something your accountant should have done for you anyway as he most likely would have EOT by default.

Anyway, to get back on topic, I'm still waiting for CHA to get back to 20c before I take another punt...

[Footsie]

I'm Gone. Footsie is out, sold everything today. !
Despite earlier comments, I have reasons for selling...............
1. Nice gain over 10 month period..
2. Strong uptrend now broken,
3 sentiment changing in stock
4. NZ market overvalued so fits with my policy of reducing my NZ holdings
5. I realised that potentially all the good news was priced in that even an alcopop deal or 20% sales growth might not actually push the stock higher
6. my valuation on the stock is 16c

but the number 1 reason was i didnt want to watch all my profit disappear, and there was a real danger of that........ with millions on the offer above 22c

someone smacked it to 20 on the close so wouldnt suprise me to see the stock 19/20 tomorrow.


The hunt is on now for a new stock.

My overall p/f now has a large cash holding 14%

[The Doctor]

well done to those who sold out...nice profit...has 'Charliesan' O.J been released in Japan yet?:D[xx(][xx(]

[Phaedrus]

Good on you Footsie. The CHA chart has an attractive symmetry about it don't you think? The only thing lacking to complete the cycle is the "Break below Support" Sell signal.

http://h1.ripway.com/Phaedrus/CHA28002.gif

A note for the faithful :- I know how important it is to offer something positive at times like this. CHA is still in an uptrend. It would need to Close below 21 cents to break its recent support and begin a downtrend.

[Steve]

Question Phaedrus, do you plot on close or weighted close?

[Phaedrus]

The Close. My data supplier is not able to provide weighted Close data. This is a pity, because as you probably know it is preferable to use the weighted Close for quite a few indicators.

[Steve]

quote:Originally posted by Phaedrus

The Close. My data supplier is not able to provide weighted Close data. This is a pity, because as you probably know it is preferable to use the weighted Close for quite a few indicators.

What is the trailing stop that you have used with CHA?

[mothership]

Interesting thought Fird. I am looking at CHA. The main reason is because of the involvement of the L'Affare guy. Speaking to someone involved with l'Affare recently, it would seem that the L'Affare guy was in no small part responsible for taking what was a funky cafe with fresh roasted coffee (a bit of a rarity back when they started) to a very good business. When Pak n Save have a full range of L'Affare products at eye level in their Porirua branch, I'm thinking that's a pretty good sign of success!.
So, altough at this stage CHA may seem over-priced, I will be watching for signs of growth

[hairdresser]

The increasing concentration in ownership is interesting.

Around 65% closely held and buying volumes since late Nov could support an additional stake of 10-12% with a couple of brokers and an interested party all buying up to 5%.

This would leave around 71m shares outstanding that they could probably pick up for $20m [@30cps]. They don't have any real debt and if they have produced a reasonable EBITDA and have had reasonable current asset growth the $20m may be partially bankable.

Theres still a lot of private equity money looking for a better place to park than bank interest.

[Steve]

A reason to buy on this weakness then? I was waiting until the price got back to 20 and here it is. Decision time...

[BRICKS]

quote:Originally posted by Steve

A reason to buy on this weakness then? I was waiting until the price got back to 20 and here it is. Decision time...


WELL then Steve @ 20 cents you can BUY 75,000 and your broker will charge you NO than in the PAST.. [8D]

[Steve]

quote:Originally posted by BRICKS

WELL then Steve @ 20 cents you can BUY 75,000 and your broker will charge you NO than in the PAST.. [8D]

Probably look around 50k/60k actually...;)

[BRICKS]

quote:Originally posted by Steve


quote:Originally posted by BRICKS

WELL then Steve @ 20 cents you can BUY 75,000 and your broker will charge you NO than in the PAST.. [8D]

Probably look around 50k/60k actually...;)


NO worry then numbers down but unit price UP .. [8D]

[Steve]

quote:Originally posted by BRICKS

NO worry then numbers down but unit price UP .. [8D]

Yep, up by .02 of a cent per share: 75k = 20.04; 50k = 20.06

[BRICKS]

quote:Originally posted by Steve


quote:Originally posted by BRICKS

NO worry then numbers down but unit price UP .. [8D]

Yep, up by .02 of a cent per share: 75k = 20.04; 50k = 20.06


NO worry just DO it.. [8D]

[ratkin]

People here talking about changing sentiment. What they really mean is they worried themselves out of the stock for fear of losing profits.
Price was run up by short term traders and we are now seeing profit taking as buying momentum inevitably dried up while people watch and wait.

Fact is that sentiment hasnt changed at all . This company is going places , the management team in place is top notch , revenues are increasing , there are many expansion opportunities around the corner and also the possibility of a buyout.

Remember that stefans was recently sold , the price that was paid for that would suggest any takeover of charlies would be around 40c.

In november the company said they hoped to announce some developments before the result on feb 28th. Will that still happen?

Those that rely on charts may well leave but those who believe in the company the management team and the future of this company will be more than happy to pick up more stock during any period of weakness

[The Doctor]

[:o)][xx(][:o)]the stocks present ridiculous price is only driven by 'sentiment' ..not fundamentsls...as 4 'fird' what planet are you from?CHA products have 'brand awareness in NZ only!...as for privatisation1...the coy went 'public or went under'...but at this s/p ...not a hope!..the well 'know' investors merely play the 'Eric' game...he's richer than me and no idiot so I better buy some...and the 'end game'...RJ himself...'buy.buy buy, while I quietly...SELL..WHO SAID 'NEVER SELL'!:D[xx(][:o)][xx(]

[Phaedrus]

Steve, the Trailing Stop shown on the chart is simply 3x the ATR of this stock (Average True Range). If you want to know more about this type of Stop, go to http://www.tradernexus.com/advancedstop/advancedstop.html

For those without MetaStock or access to this type of Stop, a simple 8% - 10% Trailing Stop gives more or less the same results.

I see that CHA closed at 20 cents. It is now in a downtrend.

[ratkin]

My guess would be debt

" We are in a sound financial position, with no debt and very good funding
facilities through our new bankers, the ANZ/National Bank Group."

As for the result due on 28th it sure to be good judging by the comments at the AGM


"The company continues to progress well in the current year. I am pleased to
say that sales and earnings for the first four months of this financial year,
under both the Charlie's and Phoenix Organics brands, are significantly
higher than for the previous corresponding period. Whilst our results are
weighted more to the second half of the financial year, this is an
encouraging sign in terms of growth and financial performance. We anticipate
releasing our results for the December half-year on 28 February."

[hairdresser]

Phaedrus

A couple of questions on your numbers.

How many periods do you use for calcuating the ATR? And why do you choose this number of periods?

Cheers

[Footsie]

Yes i still believe in the CHA "story"

but i've been burned on stocks like this before........ FTB is a classic , i would have been better to have sold at 80c in March 05........ than wait 14 months to get 77c

CHA may well get taken out.... but have u noticed ppl make "raids" on coy's when they are cheap..

I will buy back in if the price retreats below my valuation or if there is another catalyst to get back in

i still like the product tho my wife prefers simply squeezed..

i'll put myself on the block and say CHA will close below 20c in the next few days
smoothies are the best

[Phaedrus]

Hairdresser, I tailor the ATR multiple to suit the trend that I wish to monitor. For example, you need to use a much lower multiple (a tighter stop) if you are interested in trading a secondary trend as opposed to the primary trend. In this particular case the value used was 3x ATR.

In actual practice, all I do is to select the value that gives a Stop that just skims below the reaction low(s) used to draw the trendline. The principle is the same as that of a trendline (or a moving average) in that the idea is to immediately flag any developing weakness in the trend, any variation from the norm. I use the same method for selecting moving average periods too - if I was to apply a moving average to this particular trend, I would have used a 15 day ema. Take a look at this on a chart and you will see why this particular value was chosen. It skimmed just below all the reaction lows, all the way up until it was broken immediately after the trendline - just before the trailing stop was hit.

Note that these 3 trend indicators were all triggered by a weakening of the trend, not a reversal of the trend. That did not happen until today, when CHA broke below a previous support level, made a lower low after a lower high, and began a Downtrend.

[Steve]

Thanks for the assistance with your Phaedrus

[hairdresser]

Thanks for the info. Will wait and see what happens with interest.

Cheers

[Footsie]

traded 19.9

still waiting for that sub 20c close....

[The Doctor]

if a 'real deal' eventuates re 'Japanese conglomerates'...I will banish my:D[8D][^][:X][:p]self from annoying the...'gullible'!

[ratkin]

Whats up doc ?

You and the rest of the looney tunes didnt manage to push the stock below 20 today

[hairdresser]

Phaedrus

I have been thiking about your chart and the lines.

1. The offer/bid spread for CHA is around 5% so a single buy/sell can trigger a price movement of 5%. Quite a big movement. Minimum change in price noticeable would 10%.

2. Volumes are thin and buying and selling a decent parcel can sometimes [not always] take a few days.

I think this may introduce significant noise into the lines.

If you have a couple of spare minutes I would be interested if you could rerun your numbers using a simple 3 day MA, and if possible use the closing bid prices instead of closing price. [NB yesterday closed of a $1,000 trade at 21 when the VWAP for the day 20.1]

I would do it myself but I have no idea of how to do it. I've tried on DB advanced charts but they only have a 5 day MA. From the slope of the curve it looks like there has been a pull back from highs but I can't tell if its a correction or the start of a downtrend.

A drop of 20% is significant but not enough on its own to signal a reversal in trend. I suspect it is more likely a correction. Usually at the top of the trend there is a flurry of activity before the reversal. The opposite of the bottom.

Cheers

[The Doctor]

quote:Originally posted by ratkin

Whats up doc ?

You and the rest of the looney tunes didnt manage to push the stock below 20 today


happy to take a 'side bet'..so long as you are not another 'spector'!:D[:p]

[ratkin]

Im not really worried either way. It is the price in a year or two that i am interested in , not if it goes to 19.8c for ten minutes on a monday morning.

If the management keep doing a great job then the sp will take care of itself.

Interesting why you have an obsession with this stock though , judging by your comments you have no interest in investing in it , but seem very keen to spin a very negative picture just like you did with 42 below, and we know what happened there

[Phaedrus]

Hairdresser, here a CHA chart with the 3 day Simple moving average that you wanted. I do not have data to plot closing Bids, so the plot is of Closing prices. I'm not at all sure what you want this for - to my mind 3 days is far too short a period to be of any practical use even for very short-term traders. I have plotted a 15 day ema that correlates nicely with other trend indicators. You can see how it tracked prices quite closely for 4 months before it signalled an exit at virtually the same time as the trendline break.
In your comments you mentioned the slope of the curve (of a moving average). Some people use this to recognise weakness, perhaps even before price action breaks below the ma. You can see that the 15ema rose steadily for 4 months, never ever falling until 17/01/07 when it dipped, giving an exit signal at 23 cents.

The points that you raise about spread and volatility are quite valid - these things do indeed introduce significant noise. That is where trendlines and moving averages are good - they ignore minor fluctuations. Are you familiar with the Zig-zag "indicator"? This is simply a plot of the Closing prices that can be set to ignore any change of less than x%. This is another good way to filter out noise, if you think it to be a problem.

"it looks like there has been a pull back from highs but I can't tell if its a correction or the start of a downtrend."
Yes you can - a downtrend is in effect when you get a lower low after a lower high. This happened on Thursday. What you can't tell is how far the current downtrend will run. All we really know is that this is the only significant weakness that CHA has shown since July of last year. Each of us has the choice of either ignoring this information or acting on it. Those that bought and sold CHA on the trendline breaks will have made 142% in 148 days. Phenomenal. You would have to be a full-blown optimist to think that gains of that magnitude (equivalent to 350% pa) could continue.

A drop of 20% is significant but not enough on its own to signal a reversal in trend.
Right. You need to have a lower low after a lower high.

Selling out at 23 cents does NOT stop you buying back in again any time you like if/when the uptrend resumes. In the mean time, your money is safe while CHA remains in a downtrend.

http://h1.ripway.com/Phaedrus/CHA211001.gif

[hairdresser]

Thanks for all your hard wotk

The idea behind the 3 day ma was to smooth out days with low volume. Doesn't seem to make things much smoother once the stock went to 1c per tick from 0.10c per tick.

I think the change in price per tick once over 20c ie from .1c to 1c has incresaed the volatility. A problem for all the penny's on the NZX.

IMO the curve looks like a series of jumps followed by periods of consolidation. And that it is now a period of consoliation. A pull back wouldn't be a surprise but I expect CHA to continue to roll for a little while anyway.

Re zig zags. What %age should you use, should you base the number on daily or weekly volatility, and how should you link this to time period measured? My view is of TA is that there has be a reasonable reason for picking the parameters rather than just trying to fit the line to the data. Also that there is a lot more to investing than just DCF valutions and fundamental analysis.

Also do you think that stock price series are better linked to closing price or price per %age of volume traded. For CHA it would the price per every 1% volume [or] 2.8m shares traded.

Cheers

PS It would be good if they had a 5:1 share consolidation ie 1% per tick vs 5%. I would be happier to let the market set the spread than the NZX.

[ratkin]

Whisper is that an announcement regarding alcoholic drinks is due very soon

[biker]

quote:Originally posted by ratkin

Whisper is that an announcement regarding alcoholic drinks is due very soon

Can you expand on that? Could be that they have decided the alcoholic drinks business is not for them[?]

[COLIN]

quote:Originally posted by ratkin

Whisper is that an announcement regarding alcoholic drinks is due very soon

Could the announcement be from ALAC to the effect that alcoholic drinks should be taken in moderation?!

(Its been a rather dull day today!)

[biker]

Hey ratty, where did your last post go or was that just for me?

[ratkin]

Decided it best unposted

[biker]

quote:Originally posted by ratkin

Decided it best unposted


Still valid though?

[ratkin]

Apparantly however it not 100% but that seems to be the word amoung the juice brigade

[barnsley bill]

quote:Originally posted by ratkin

Apparantly however it not 100% but that seems to be the word amoung the juice brigade


you dropping "nudge nudge wink winks" on this one too ratkin?

[The Doctor]

..talk about 'hedging your bets'...or...or...or..:D

[Steve]

The announcement should be any day now...

Have taken a punt @ 21 today.:)

[kizame]

Hi Steve,what announcement? are you talking 1st half result or possible deal with the so called major overseas conglomerate.

[KJ]

HY due Wednesday

[Steve]

quote:Originally posted by kizame

Hi Steve,what announcement? are you talking 1st half result or possible deal with the so called major overseas conglomerate.

Both. I'm expecting an update on the deal along with the HY announcement.

[ratkin]

Must be a good result , otherwise we would of seen some price weakness by now.
Due out in morning

[Placebo]

Ratty what are you on about. The NZ market is watertight everyone knows that.

Imagine suggesting someone would act on insider knowledge they have.

Why, that would be a scandal![:0]:)

[ratkin]

lol , that 500,000 at 20 would of been chomped in a flash

[jonny5]

Anyone doing a last second buy in the morning?

[Greyhound]

Yes.Just getting some more.

[The Doctor]

quote:Originally posted by Fird

I'd take a small side bet to Doc, that there will either be an announcement on Japan before the end of this month ... another reason for the confidence, beyond NZTE and the Financial Review is that the Japanese "new foods" season starts March April, with their spring - the time that new beverages are launched or announced in Japan.

And the Japanese conglomerates don't muck about - the impact on the bottom line won't be small.

Or if there's no announcement - then watch for the privatisation - or some kind of effective equivalent.


looks like you read' it wrong![B)]..what did they serve up...about 1% plus...profit!!...hardly inspiring![:o)]more 'fudge' about Japan..[:I]...years of cash burn await the faithfull!..get out while its still 20c...[:p]

[luckysexice]

what kind reaction the market going to get with the half year result

[kizame]

42below wasn't even profitable when it was bought out,I do like what this company is doing,and the way they are going about it.
They have a lot of work to do,but you have to like the fridge placement plan,this is what Coca Cola do and it works wonderfully,with the exclusivity of product allowed in them.
The new product roll out is great it keeps the market fresh and exciting,and brings expanded revenue streams and makes for greater product,and company profile.

As for the Japan factor,that's just icing on the cake if it comes off.

[ratkin]

Very good result imo.

With new developments in the pipeline , clearly a very sold result

[Steve]

Happy with the result, but would have liked a bit more progress with the japanese...:)

[The Doctor]

you can increase revenue...by discounting...look at the profit re revenue...pitifull...and requires more cash to increase fridge expansion ,etc..long haul...you may get your money back.Japan...forget it1..p.... in the wind![xx(]

[Footsie]

I have to say that i thought margins were awful

clearly charlies itself is still bleeding and phoenix is carrying it

im suprised it didnt get sold down given "china"

to be honest.... with markets looking shakey, im glad im out

this could easily fall back to 15c if the going got tough

and when the going gets tough id rather be in a stock that makes money

i think now is the time to start selling your spec stocks

[ratkin]

lol interesting to see the two of you are so desperate to see the price of charlies fall, especially as you dont hold any shares

[hairdresser]

Not enough info in announcement to assess whether a good result or not particularly no GM%.

Only good info is top line [which cant be fudged], need more info on expenses to assess perfromance, particularly with growing company.

Only very general comments [not bullish or bearish] about the next 6 months as much info as "we expect to be trading as a juice company during the next 6 months". Nothing about the outlook beyongd 6 months.

Revenue growth was OK, a little less than I expected but not too bad. Export growth weak 16% on fa is still fa.

NB If Independent hadn't broken the story on Japan there would be no info about this in the market at all.

Insiders should be able to buy now if they want too.... They seemed to be happy about to buy at 19c a few months ago....

I'm not selling...

[The Doctor]

...if the Indy hadn't 'leaked' it no info at all about Japan!!:D..don't you know how the 'game' works?:(..you're in for a 'haircut'....soon![:p]

[hairdresser]

Im not banking on Japan thats for sure...

The beverages and food segments are usually solid performers once they can get distribution and economies of scale. CHA have established distribution channels in supermarkets, the route trade, McCafe and BP [this is quite valuable in itself ie the real estate value of shelf space].

The trick is to "profitably" add new products and line extensions to effect an increase in shelf space and sales. Not a no brainer but a lot easier than the first part. They are in the process of doing this at the moment. This reduces their selling expenses %age and should lead to higher GM's on larger volumes.

I was looking for an indication that they were getting economies of scale from increased sales volume.

The segment they operate in is quite competitive and I understand that they may not want to signal their plans to their competitors through market announcements [allowable under NXZ rules].

The only conspiracy theories I really like on the NZX are the ones surrounding PLS...

[Footsie]

Ratkin... does that mean you are "desperate" to see it rise?

[ratkin]

As a holder of course i would like to see it rise.

But as a non holder why would you be so keen for it to fall?

[ratkin]

quote:half year result will be interesting

like i said earlier this could go to 35c

This is what you were saying about charlies just over a month ago, now you are telling us it will fall to 16c.
Quite what the agenda of you and the good doctor is i dont know, but the quality of the stock will shine through in the end.

[kizame]

I think he's sold out and wants to buy back in,so is hoping the price falls to justify this.

Time will tell.

[The Doctor]

there is a 'reason' why a stock is a 'pennydreadfull'![:I]

[Footsie]

Ratkin

I cant be right all the time..... i honestly thought this stock would run to 35c.... maybe it still will.....

But the market is in a downtrend.... p/e ratio's are high ... nz economy is slowing down and I dont want to have too much exposure to high risk small caps so I sold out.

If the market corrects , like think it will..... then CHA will fall......and i dont want to be holding the parcel when the music stops

Whilst i thought CHA could run to 35c.... I knew that anything over 16c ( a realistic m/cap val) was probably froth and i was riding a wave enthusiasm....

at 10c when i loved this stock yuo all thought i was mad..... now when i sell you think i am mad.....

but i think i am smart.....

i'm moving my money "risk" money into another small cap "marketing" stock in OZ..... RLA
Red Island Olive Oil
it's totally out of favour, its price has been slammed, just like CHA in July last year... it has a cap of $14m
ie it goes broke or they make money and the cap becomes $60m

I'm not just a pretty face you know...:D i do my homework. I phone the ceo's, i crunch the numbers, i stare at charts (eg i attended a presentation and site visit for CHA last year...)

PS if the NZ market continues to rally i expect to have sold my entire NZ portfolio by October except maybe one or two key performers.....

[ratkin]

Went into petrol station today and had a look at the charlies offerings.
They have what i consider to be a very good product. It is the 600ml bottles of orange juice. The bottles are shaped like those of energy drinks with the same stopper at the top.
As an avid juice drinker, in the past i have noticed an absense in this market. If you wanted a bottle of orange juice then it just was not available , the cartons were either too big and bulky or those little tiny one.
If you just wanted an easy drink then it wasnt available. Charlies have now filled that gap. They retail at 3.50 and according to the guy in the service station they have been selling well.

[The Doctor]

definately the place to position these products...s/station customers expect high prices...the margins are there provided its not all going the servos way.V has a great margin and is going 'gangbusters'!

[Footsie]

Ratkin........

you must have big balls.......

market is in free fall..... CHA is gonna get slammed sooner rather than later....


Dont be left holding the baby
Buy back at 15c

[hairdresser]

Go Ratkin. Tim Cook just sold an insignificant parcel, I don't think he urgently needed the $3k. He will be hoping for a bounce in SP before 31 Mar so his fund makes up a little for the recent hit on POD.

[Greyhound]

I'm sticking with them.I do have a 'get out' price,but am prepared to stick with them. It would take a huge fall for me to make a lose,and quite frankly,nothing else has my interest at present.:)

[trackers]

quote:Originally posted by Footsie


market is in free fall.....


lol....really?

[Greyhound]

I'm somewhat perplexed as to why the strong trading in Charlies hasn't resulted in strong upward movement.[:0]

[The Doctor]

on strict pragmatic analysis this share struggles to be valued at 5c...however mkting,sentiment,hype call it what u will obviously prevails...42below a 'miracle'!...Inner Circle rum..a long established ,profitable brand sells for $10mil...compare to 42..go figure!

[hairdresser]

Broker or brokers buying on behalf before they hit the market.... Or between brokers....

Cheers

[ratkin]

Quite a few off market trades at .22 The big sell order at .21 dissapeared during the day too. Me thinks something brewing

[Greyhound]

quote:Originally posted by ratkin

Quite a few off market trades at .22 The big sell order at .21 dissapeared during the day too. Me thinks something brewing


You would have to think so..and as a holder,would HOPE SO.:)

[The Doctor]

something is brewing'...'fermenting' more like it...WHO HAS EVER SEEN A P.E OF 428.57!!!![:0][:0][:0][:0][:0]on the NZ SE before???...get real!!!!!:D[:o)][:p][xx(][:p][:o)][:I][:I][:I][xx(][xx(]

[The Doctor]

any news on ...Japan?:D...or was it a bit of a 'junket' for the lads?[:p]

[The Doctor]

quote:Originally posted by MoSteph


quote:Originally posted by The Doctor

something is brewing'...'fermenting' more like it...WHO HAS EVER SEEN A P.E OF 428.57!!!![:0][:0][:0][:0][:0]on the NZ SE before???...get real!!!!!:D[:o)][:p][xx(][:p][:o)][:I][:I][:I][xx(][xx(]


prattle, prattle, prattle... there're lots of companies whose PE's are negative on the NZSE.


I'm sure there are![xx(]...but is this a record? 428 times earnings per share...their best result EVER![:o)][:o)][xx(]

[The Doctor]

where are the 'phone jocks'?...see plenty of new 'organic' drinks available now...Frank,Ozone...this sector is very ,very, competitive...as for Japan!..most people can now see the 'spin'...Japan has close ties with S.E Asia...you can buy sweet O.J for 80c a litre in Thailand...'Cha(rliesan)'..under 10 cents by Xmas![:p]

[winner69]

Whats happening with the shareprice .... did I see 17.5 this morning?

Hey Doc ........ the PE's reducing ....... on the assumptions that the bottom line isn't getting worse

[Phaedrus]

Update of chart on Page 19 - Those SELL signals are looking better all the time! I have plotted a new trendline and trailing stop for anyone that might be wanting to time an entry into CHA. The downtrend appears to be accelerating though - not good news for the faithful. So, we have a downtrending stock and no buy signals = a wonderful opportunity to average down!
http://h1.ripway.com/Phaedrus/CHA427002.gif

[moimoi]

Phaedrus,

Is your tongue firmly in your cheek?...or have you come over all whoozie?..?

Dunno that i have ever read you uttering the words "average down" ??? ;) ;)

cheers
Moi

[winner69]

Moimoi ..... he (Phaedrus) has used that phrase twice in a few days ..... recommended it to belg the other day on the HBY thread

Must mean it eh

[Greyhound]

Faithful no more,bailed out @ 20c.Will possibly re enter at around 'The Phaedrus' mark.[8D]

[foodee]

Only holding 'free carry' and watching.

[Footsie]

As phaedrus and I discussed a few months back - the time to sell was when all the signals went RED

glad to have sold my last parcel at 21c

Pity had i been a little more on the ball i could have got 23c for them


Dont worry I'll buy them all back if it gets cheap enough!

[foodee]

quote:Posted by Footsie
...if it gets cheap enough!

Interested in where you think that might be.

Cheers

[ratkin]

Interesting announcement ths morning . Going to have some new produtcts to place in their expndng number of fridges and outlets.

[tim23]

Sounds positive - for me their OJ is superb even at at premium price!

[ratkin]

Im a big grapefruit juice fan myself, buy four cartons a week and have everyday for breakfast.

Big test with these new drinks will be what they actually taste like.
They have all the distribution channels in place now so it should be fairly straightforward bringing them to market.

[The Doctor]

is the market growing?...it is very crowded and new products burn cash..bigger choice ...same 'pie'?The Japanese hype was so far fetched it reflects very poorly on management..a vague ramping device.

[hairdresser]

The market is growing like gangbusters, thats why everyone wants a piece of the pie. The new entrants will help grow the entire market and CHA will be main beneficiary.

It's pretty obvious that new products take a while before they start to contribute to the bottom line, but increased manufacturing volume will improve GM% and also decrease OH as % of revenue, pretty basic stuff.

If people couldn't make any money by launching new products we would still all be driving Model T Fords..

[The Doctor]

quote:Originally posted by hairdresser

The market is growing like gangbusters, thats why everyone wants a piece of the pie. The new entrants will help grow the entire market and CHA will be main beneficiary.

It's pretty obvious that new products take a while before they start to contribute to the bottom line, but increased manufacturing volume will improve GM% and also decrease OH as % of revenue, pretty basic stuff.

If people couldn't make any money by launching new products we would still all be driving Model T Fords..


'gangbusters' eh/ my info is from people with 25 yrs experience in the industry..is that if CHA did not go public Ellis and Liponika? would be bankrupt...international 'conglomerates'...control the 'drinks' industry in NZ...THEY HAVE THE RESOURCES TO COUNTER ANY PRODUCT LINE EXTENSIONS THIS PENNYDREADFULL MIGHT LANCH'..this company will never return an equitable return for investors ,even as a comparison to 'bank int'..I'll bet anyone on that..mind u is perfect as a Bangkok boileroom stock ..contoured to NZ 'hot button's'..i.e..housewives 'like' M.E..the product is fantastic/just too expensive and lacking a U.S.P...VALUATION 4-5C per share and THEY know it..'next year will always be better'!..mark my words.

[Nevl]

why the rage doc??

[Bling_Bling]

quote:Originally posted by The Doctor

is the market growing?...it is very crowded and new products burn cash..bigger choice ...same 'pie'?The Japanese hype was so far fetched it reflects very poorly on management..a vague ramping device.


The jap market is very tough to crack.

[Footsie]

rat

i've changed my mind.......... i think im gonna stay out of kiwi small caps / specs for a while

[Mwithy]

Now that I've handed back virtually all my gains, I'm conceding to the knockers, don't see any plan that will result in anything other than fighting over a relatively static market. Grass looks greener to me, Sell Time.

No longer a true believer.

[Phaedrus]

Mwithy, It sounds to me as though you are trying to blame the stock itself for your "misfortune". A lot of people have made a lot of money with CHA. You gave all your profits back to the market because you had no system, no exit strategy.
You say the grass looks greener elsewhere, but why should next time be any different? How do you propose stopping the same thing happening again? What have you learnt?
Don't concede to the knockers. Don't concede to the rampers. Don't concede to anyone or anything. Develop your own system and keep to it. Without a system you are just a candle in the wind.
It is good that you are no longer a "true believer". Can you see that that was one of the mistakes you made?
PS: Didn't you like my nice chart on page 19?

[Mwithy]

Hi P, Not trying to blame the market at all, annoyed at myself, but thought i would concede to those who have known (and have been saying) better for a long time(eg your graph,The Doc etc). I knew it was a TA sell (and strongly) but somehow deluded myself into giving credence to the various 'reasons' they could grow sales and ultimately put it on the bottom line. I have now realised i was making a significant timeframe error, even if they do grow sales significantly (and im starting to doubt it) it will take time, in the meantime my money will be elsewhere.

Here is an embarassing admission, to prevent this in future, my system is more than adequate (would have tipped me out long ago on a trailing stop basis alone) I just need to keep to it.

A cheap lesson as far as lessons go, could have been worse.

[ratkin]

You need to ask yourself why you bought the shares. If you bought them with the intention of trading them then clearly you should of been ot weeks ago.
If on the other had you bought them for funadamental reasons as a long term hold then nothing much would of happened to cause you to sell.
You say it will take time for them to grow , but it always does , buying for a few months then getting itchy feet isnt really the route to riches either.

[Mwithy]

quote:Originally posted by ratkin

You need to ask yourself why you bought the shares.


Thats a totally fair criticism, my reasons for buying were confused, a little bit of column A a little bit of column B sort of reasoning. In future i need to be more disciplined about buy decisions.

[foodee]

Mwithy
Don't be unduly harsh on yourself. Recognition is the first step to improvement.

Phaedrus has given me the odd kick and I have benefitted and appreciated his knowledge.

cheers

[Phaedrus]

Mwithy,
Your thinking is still a little muddled. You say "In future i need to be more disciplined about buy decisions". Not so. There was nothing wrong with your Buy decision - regardless of the reasoning or methodology that lay behind it. A more logical resolution would be "In future I need to be more disciplined about keeping to my system". You didn't lose this money because you made a bad buy decision. You didn't lose because you bought CHA for mixed reasons. You didn't lose because you had no system. You didn't lose because you had no exit strategy. You lost because you failed to keep to your system.
Personally, I have a very strong natural aversion to rules - even those I make for myself. This is a significant handicap to successful trading/investing. It took me literally years to acquire the discipline needed to keep to my system. It remains a constant struggle.

[hairdresser]

Whatever system you use you are always going to win some and lose some. Don't get caught up in the emotion when trading. If you can avoid buying when there is a lot of hype and selling when its all doom and gloom you will probably do OK, but like life there are no guarantees...

My bet on this one is that Tim Cook will want a decent result for his fund by 30 June so there should be some sort of announcement before then, look at POD ["unamed parties have expressed interest in purchasing part or whole of business no price has not been mentioned and there is nothing on the table"]...



Cheers

[ratkin]

Some new drinks in the pheonix range.
The names im not sure about

Berry nice: that one good
Lemon toddy: would prefer hot toddy

But the one i really dont like and would be embarrased to order is
coco love

"could i have a coco love" How corny does that sound

[moe]

Have not seen this thread for a while.

Its gone pretty quiet lately.....

[ratkin]

Yep the froth has come off the share price , the traders have all gone elsewhere, another stock that doubled in rapid order and has now fallen back to more realistic levels.
Still believe in the story, drink the grapefruit juice every morning , and anyone who has ever tasted mccoys juice will now that charlies have a far superior product.

One item of interest , has anybody else noticed that new world are selling satsumas with charlies sticers on them? Whats that about

[tim23]

And mandarins - like you believe in the story the OJ is superb, drink a 1.5 or 2.4 litre each week; either is often on special.

[ratkin]

Any of you tried that new old fashioned lemonade, it fantastic stuff.
First bottle i bought i never even had a chance to try , kids got hold of it first and drank the lot.
Very nice drink , lets hope enough people try it

[The Doctor]

nothing wrong with the products !...but unless one of them cures cancer,this stock is still way over priced...P.E under 400 now:D..I notice they only refer to ebitda now, not actual profit.Has NO U.S.P,NO EXPORT potential...and is in a constant 'discount' war to maintain mkt share domestically.Still expect under 10c by Xmas.Anyone know the n.t.a?

[Scuffer]

I have been watching this stock for about a year now its been interesting to say the least have thought about buying in but not as yet still think it would be a good company for NZ but not for me at the moment will sit on the fence for a good buying opportunity then I'll jump off and kick the can.

[Rumplestiltskin]

quote:Originally posted by The Doctor

nothing wrong with the products !...but unless one of them cures cancer,this stock is still way over priced...P.E under 400 now:D..I notice they only refer to ebitda now, not actual profit.Has NO U.S.P,NO EXPORT potential...and is in a constant 'discount' war to maintain mkt share domestically.Still expect under 10c by Xmas.Anyone know the n.t.a?


Doc, one thing they do have is reach.The Charlies fridges do seem to have a very wide coverage across the country and in the business of marketing and distribution would seem to be well placed. New products will get to market efficiently and if the model works,can't see why it wouldn't be effective offshore.The reach must be a stone in the shoe of the heavy-weights as well,and if that gets too uncomfortable the remedy could be profitable for CHA holders.
However if the model is fundamentally flawed then your 'under 10c' should read 'well under 10c'.
Whether it works or not,it has to be a better model than Franks with its expensive TV advertising then Pallets of the stuff languishing in the Warehouse.
One thing that troubles me is why did Dianne Foreman resign from the board.

With a straw-to-gold mentality I'm holding these, but I do realise that sometimes straw is only used as mulch for strawberries.

[Placebo]

Wonder what happened to that Japanese market rumour that was doing the rounds before Christmas... 7 months on, still not a sausage...[B)]

[Rumplestiltskin]

Phaedrus, It looks like TA may be close to indicating a buy.Can you confirm that?(they were at 16.9,now 16.5)

[tim23]

I'm no chartist but just had a look at the 2 year chart - I don't see a buy signal yet - when you compare to previous break outs.

[ratkin]

Charlies very much in wait and see mode at the moment

[Phaedrus]

Rumplestiltskin, There's not a lot of point in speculating whether CHA might be "close to indicating a buy" or trying to predict when this might happen. I guess you looked at the intraday high and saw that it had (just) broken above the trendline. In any case, it would take a brave (or foolish) punter to buy on a single signal in isolation. Resolve to be prudent, wait for clear confirmed signals and don't even try to buy at or near what might appear to be the bottom.

[Rumplestiltskin]

It would appear things are going in the right direction for Charlies.This must be adding capital value to the brands.



CHA
18/07/2007
FORECAST

REL: 0902 HRS Charlie's Group Limited

FORECAST: CHA: Charlie's Group Delivers Record Sales

CHARLIE'S GROUP LIMITED MARKET UPDATE

18 July 2007

Charlie's Group Delivers Record Sales

Listed beverage maker Charlie's Group Limited ("Charlie's Group" or the
"Group") has delivered a substantial lift in unaudited gross sales for the
year ended 30 June 2007 to a record $26.9 million, an increase of 56.4
percent or $9.7 million on gross sales for the previous 12 months.

The result includes 12 months' trading from parent company, Charlie's Group
Limited, Charlie's Trading Company and Phoenix Organics Group. The Group's
previous reporting period was for the 15 months to June 30, 2006. Adjusted
sales figures representing Group sales for the 12 months ending 30 June 2006
have been provided for a comparison to the 2007 sales result.

Charlie's Group will release its final audited results announcement for the
year ending 30 June 2007 in mid August together with a full commentary on
earnings and developments during the period.

Overview

12 months ended 30 June 2007 Unaudited
Gross sales 26,901,000

12 months ended 30 June 2006 Adjusted
Gross sales 17,195,000

15 months ended 30 June 2006 Audited
Gross sales 19,707,000

The strong increase in sales for 2007 is attributed to rising demand across
the Group's product range under both brands, Charlie's and Phoenix Organics,
as a result of investment in sales systems in the grocery channel, an
enhanced product offering in the route channel and distribution growth in
export markets.

There continues to be a global trend toward premium beverage brands, with
consumers willing to pay for high quality products that are better for them.
Both of the Group's brands have benefited substantially from this trend over
the past 12 months and are well placed to capitalize on it in the future in
each of the Group's distribution channels.

Channel update

Grocery channel

The Group's retail sales in supermarkets experienced growth well ahead of the
market. In the chilled juice category, Charlie's retail sales revenue grew
at 32.8% in comparison to growth of the chilled market of 5.6%. Charlie's
and Phoenix Organics ambient juice retail sales revenue grew at 25.0%, while
the total ambient market grew at 3.8%.

The grocery sales team performance has been the driver of success in this
channel. A high performance sales team and new systems were put in place in
September 06 resulting in improved sales execution. Phoenix Organics is sold
in 12.7% more stores than a year ago and is moving into the mainstream
beverage aisle in supermarkets, following international trends of organic
products becoming more available to everyday consumers.

Route channel

Operating revenue in the route channel grew 17% from the previous 12 month
period. This growth has been driven by increased distribution across the
Group's product range as a result of the opening of new accounts and the
Group's ability to offer a full premium beverage range to customers. Growth
continues in fridge placements in the New Zealand market with an overall 47%
increase.

Export channel

Export markets continued a strong year of growth with gross sales in
Australia, the Group's main export market, growing 36% from the previous 12
month period. The strong performance in Australia was primarily driven by
fridge placements in the route trade more than doubling (up 125%).

New Products

The Group continues to build on its success by developing products that
enhance the Charlie's and Phoenix Organics range. In May 2007, the Group
launched a new range of drinks, Charlie's Old Fashioned Quenchers, to meet
growing demand from consumers and reflect global trends. Quenchers are
manufactured at the Group's Henderson plant in West Auckland. Quenchers were
met

[foodee]

Nice announcement and think story will get better.[^]

disc: holder

[ratkin]

They are right about the superior products , especially the juices.
Didnt think there could be much difference in grapefruit juice but when the supermarket ran out of charlies i made the mistake of buying a mccoys grapefruit juice, never again. Charlies much superior product.

[Rumplestiltskin]

quote:Originally posted by Rumplestiltskin

Phaedrus, It looks like TA may be close to indicating a buy.Can you confirm that?(they were at 16.9,now 16.5)


Looks like 16.5c would have been good buying. Now up over 20% and in a nice up trend.

[tim23]

Quite right - a bit firmer today as well!

[Phaedrus]

CHA broke its downward trendline 8 days ago on 11/7/07 giving an entry at 16.8 cents. This buy signal was confirmed the same day by a break above the moving average and, most importantly, by the end of the downtrend. (The Close of 16.8 on 11/7/07 gave a higher high after a higher low - an [u]Uptrend</u>)
At the top of the chart are 3 other fairly conservative (ie slow)indicators. You can see that all have triggered Buy signals but, as often happens, the trendline break was the first to fire.
Buy signals are marked by green arrows, Sell signals red arrows. You can see that over the last year or more the signals from all these different indicators have shown excellent correlation.

http://h1.ripway.com/Phaedrus/CHA719.gif

[ratkin]

Lol knew that was coming. You so predictable , turn up a week after the event with one of your perfect charts.
Im sure those who sold at the bottom based on your previous chart will be less than impressed

[tim23]

Thanks - enjoy your charts and explanations!

[Phaedrus]

My poor, dear Ratkin. Go back to page 23 of this thread and look carefully at the chart I posted there on 27/4/07. On it was clearly marked a red trendline. That is the same one that was broken some 7 weeks later. I even put it in words for you "I have plotted a new trendline and trailing stop for anyone that might be wanting to time an entry into CHA". How helpful can I be? What part of that didn't you understand? I'm quite happy to post Buy/sell indicator suggestions here, but it seems a bit over the odds to expect me to remind you when/if/as any of these are hit. You'll be wanting me to call your broker for you next.

I couldn't begin to count the number of times that I have defined an uptrend on ST. Isn't this enough? You're a big boy now, and can (I hope) recognise these things for yourself. Surely you didn't need me to point out when CHA went into an uptrend? (That's a higher high after a higher low) As I have stated before, I am too busy to post every signal on every stock every day. This is especially true with stocks like CHA that I do not follow closely.

I don't know what silly game you are playing here Ratkin, but outright lies will not help your cause. You say "Im sure those who sold at the bottom based on your previous chart will be less than impressed" Why on earth would anyone sell "at the bottom" in the total absence of any sell signals? My previous chart was saying "Stay out" not "Get out". Surely you can understand that? It's not a very subtle distinction! Anyone can easily see that the Sell signals posted on my previous chart (on page 23) were particularly good and very close to the top. Go back and look at the charts on this thread. They are all there, unchanged, unedited. I challenge you to find any Sell signals at the bottom, or, indeed, to find [u]anyone</u> that would have sold on the basis of my previous (Page 23) chart! The SELL signals were on the chart on page 19. After these signals, my recommendations were for people to stay out of CHA until the downtrend ended.

I'm giving examples of techniques that people can use for themselves if they want to.

You are complaining that I'm not doing it all for them!

We are dealing with adults here Ratkin. They don't need spoon-feeding.

[ratkin]

Yawn , heard it a thousand times

[boysy]

ratkin you have over hyped charlies before dont blame phaedus for scaring away investors its the overhyping of companies like charlies that are to blame here not the messanger.In this case phaedus every investor should make there own decisions and not point the blame at others shame on you.

[FTG]

Ratkin,

You may have heard it a thousand times but based on your response it seems you haven't listened once!
Your Success or failure is your responsibility NOT someone elses.

[ratkin]

Of course, thats not in doubt and im doing very well from charlies .

What i objected to in this instance was all the negative , blatant scare tactics which appeared on page 23. Just because the shareprice fell a number of non holders , in particular The doctor , with Winner and Phaedrus joining in

Shortly afterwards we have a post from new junior member Mwithy

Now that I've handed back virtually all my gains, I'm conceding to the knockers, don't see any plan that will result in anything other than fighting over a relatively static market. Grass looks greener to me, Sell Time.

No longer a true believer.

He actually states that the knockers have influenced his decision

What i objected to was that these non holders often seem to appear on a thread spreading doom and gloom , they dont hold , dont contribute anything until the stock price goes through a temporary rough patch, then they all over the thread like a rash. Then as soon as the price recovers they dissapear.
All they achieve is frightening new investors into selling just at the wrong time.

[beacon]

I thought the forum was open to all to contribute - holders and non-holders, impartial and interested observers as well as vested interest rampers. That is what makes it worth visiting.

[tim23]

I see Frucor have bought the juice company that Charlies were to buy but pulled out from. They bouht Phoenix which I think was a brilliant move - will Frucor have a go at Charlies?

[boysy]

whats happened CHA entering the japanese market ? This stock has alot going for it but what is stoping another company entering this neche market ?

[Steve]

quote:Originally posted by boysy

whats happened CHA entering the japanese market ? This stock has alot going for it but what is stoping another company entering this neche market ?

The silence on Japan is noticable in the sales release. Not even a mention under 'Channel Update'.

Perhaps a Japan update has been deferred until mid-August FY announcement?

[tim23]

Just checked out their website before its quite funny - sentiment may have changed with this stock for now.

[ratkin]

The takeover of Frucor still upsets me after all these years. I built up a large holding in that company , at the time people saw V as a fad and many were predicting frucor would go nowhere.
Denoni recieved a massive bargain when they took the company over , i was gutted at the time being forced to sell what i saw as one of the best stocks on our exchange, doubled my money but could of been so much better. At that time the whole market was very cheap , i hate to think what those frucor shares would be worth now , many times the forced sale price no doubt.
And to rub it in they are now competing against charlies:(

[tim23]

Yes another company sold too cheap - read Brian Gayners column in todays Herald about takeovers.

[boysy]

The point of investing is to clearly make money thus people go about different approaches to achieve this short vs long term buyers. How do you expect short term buyer to stay in a stock when its SP is falling. I mean the ultimate measure of this was PRC float you could clearly see many were in for less than a day lol.[}:)]

[Scuffer]

I see long term gain in CHA and will be looking to get in but will wait for a lull. The product is the main reason for wanting to get into this company,having tried a few of their juices I am totally covinced they are selling a superior product by far to anything else I've tried, delicimo[:p]

[Placebo]

quote:I am totally covinced they are selling a superior product by far to anything else I've tried

Scuffer: Get a grip! It's just frickin juice!![:p]

[tim23]

I agree with Scuffer - the products are superb its better than frickin juice placebo!

[ratkin]

Exactly , but the rest are not only juice

The charlies juice sold from the cold store is not made from concentrate but by squeezing the fruit to extract the juice and has a similar taste and aroma to home squeezed juice. Around 6% of the juice sold in New Zealand supermarkets is NFC juice and the most popular variant is Orange juice.

The juice in the packs is made from concentrate , but has no added sugar or preservatives.
There are a few other outfits producing this too , Stefans was taken to court for misleading labelling and being found out for adding sweetners. This probably lead to charlies marketing their juice as "honest"

[Scuffer]

I got a grip placebo, on the carton and thought it was the best juice i had tried.:D

[Phaedrus]

quote:Problem is too many people have a short perspective, they prefer to concentrate on the shareprice rather than the strength of the company they have invested in.
They will grab a quick profit and dont have the patience to let time work its magic.
Gosh Ratkin, are you sure you are talking about CHA? Time certainly has worked its magic with this one - the longer you have held it, the more you have lost! Yet you claim that patience is rewarded!
Anyone that has been able to grab a quick profit from CHA has done well - far better than the patient "Buy and Hold" investors that have been holding this stock for many years.
You could hardly have picked a worse stock to illustrate the advantages of long-term holding vs trading. Incredible!
http://h1.ripway.com/Phaedrus/CHA723.gif

[The BOWMAN]

Phaedrus, CHA is not the same CHA before 2005 and after 2005 though.

[ratkin]

I bought in october 2006 for average price of 10.6 , but to call it lucky or fortunate is a mistake.
I know a beaten down undervalued stock when i see one and charlies was a classic example. Hammered unfairly due to drug allegations etc , the stock was out of favour big time.
By september last year it was clear things were improving and the stock would be rerated. They have been , very profitable it has been too .

Im sure you will now draw a chart showing how much more money you would of made using TA on this stock. The difference is my gains are real while yours are imaginary ones made using hindsight.

But keep using the crayons , the pretty little pictures seem very popular

[ratkin]

Charlies didnt even exist in 2003-2004 , in your desperation to try and prove how wonderful you are you seem to have slipped up somewhere.
Spectrum resources are not the same thing