CHA Charlies

[Phaedrus]

Well done Ratkin. Dare I point out that you would have done much better than that using a bit of simple TA? Buy signals as per charts posted on page 2 and 4 of this thread. Sell signals posted on page 19 of this thread. Next buy signals on Page 25.
Compare your performance with that of more active investors such as Footsie and Foodee. No contest.

[Phaedrus]

My mistake. I will correct the chart. The same arguments still apply.

[Footsie]

ironically for this discussion, i actually considered buying back in the other week at 16c...

alas it didnt stay there for long enough.


I think it probably represents some value back at 15c

Still i've moved on to DGL for now, much more likely of receiving a t/o bid in the current environment

[foodee]

Phaedrus
Ta but really I am just an innocuous investor talking to myself most of the time.

cheers

[mibo]

Anyone care to guess what the end of year profit might be?

My guess is 1.2m

Disc: nzx HGD, NZO, CHA

[ratkin]

I will go for break even , growing the buisness still being seen as more important than profit

[Steve]

quote:Originally posted by ratkin

I will go for break even , growing the buisness still being seen as more important than profit

I would guess slightly better than break-even before any abnormals (has goodwill been revalued under IFRS yet?), say $200k

[ratkin]

Anyone know why charlies are selling oranges and mandarins in the supermarkets
Seen no mention this in company notices etc.
Did they buy too much fruit? or not selling enough juice? Seems unlikely , but if they are going into the selling of fruit shouldnt we have been told?

[Steve]

Anyone know why charlies are selling oranges and mandarins in the supermarkets
Seen no mention this in company notices etc.
Did they buy too much fruit? or not selling enough juice? Seems unlikely , but if they are going into the selling of fruit shouldnt we have been told?

It is something that they have been doing from very early on. I think that there may have been an announcement or at least a mention in an interim.annual report...

[ratkin]

Charlies has ridden out the storm with ease, very low volume with no rush for the exit

The Charlie's Group will release its final audited results announcement for the
year ending 30 June 2007 in the next week or so , if a poor result was expected then some insiders would of taken advantage of the market turmoil to make an exit. The fact there has been no selling bodes very well

[ratkin]

Up today on tiny , tiny volume. This is very promising , you would think in this market that people would be rushing for the exit on a small stock like charlies , but they are not , hardly anybody is selling.
All around is carnage yet charlies hasnt budged for a week.

[Steve]

Do we know which day the result is due?

[tim23]

It was 24/8/06 so expect 24/8/07 or there abouts, gee Ratkin hard to be xecited about 7000 shares going through but I am a holder and do like the fact that they have held up ok in last few weeks!

[mibo]

http://www.nzx.com/market/market_announcements/by_company?id=152058

This is pretty good news :D

[living2]

I wonder if/how good this is?How will it impact on bottom line?
Didn't Frucor profit get squeezed once they started investing in distribution business rather than focussing on sales and marketing?

[mibo]

I don't think they will lose their focus on marketing. This move is purely logistical to assist in reducing their cost of product (increasing margins) and ensuring consistent fruit quality.

[ratkin]

Looks a very smart move imo , guaranteeing fruit supply and increasing margins, also make it easier to expand in australia.

Charlies has been very sensible , they have been very careful in aquiring assets, they have looked at and rejected a number of acquisitions , and made a very good choice with Pheonix .
Charlies has very little debt and this new venture isnt going to cost a great deal, and should provide good benefits. Quite pleasing that the company has not tried to overstretch itself , they appear well run and seem to be going along very nicely

[Stranger_Danger]

From one of the news sites

"Beverage maker Charlie's Group has reported a record annual net profit after tax (Npat) of $33,000, as sales increased by more than half."

Is it just me, or would the average dairy selling their juice be making more than $33,000?

I'll save holders the pain of calculating the P/E!

[ratkin]

Good result , it all about growing and expanding the brand , plenty of time in the future for profits

[Stranger_Danger]

How far in the future?

Perhaps you could guesstimate their profits for each of the next 3 years, as a guide we could later refer back to?

I'll have a go

2007 : $33k

2008 : round the same

2009 : round the same

2010 : round the same

lets look back in 2010 and see who gets it closer.

[ratkin]

I will go for break even , growing the buisness still being seen as more important than profit

Well my prediction for this result was fairly accurate , Charlies is one of the fastest growing stocks on the nzx but i wouldnt expect you to understand that , judging by the childish nature of your post i would guess you just trying to score cheap points.

Am just reading a book called No logo which is all about the history of branding , interesting read which highlights just how important brands have now become . Charlies are doing very well and am more than happy to be a shareholder

[The Doctor]

From one of the news sites

"Beverage maker Charlie's Group has reported a record annual net profit after tax (Npat) of $33,000, as sales increased by more than half."

Is it just me, or would the average dairy selling their juice be making more than $33,000?

I'll save holders the pain of calculating the P/E!

this is a joke right?...I was expecting min ebitda of around $1 million ,going by their projections...a long wait for s/holders to be rewarded for this 'lemon' apart from the 'front end loaders'!...who already have been.

[boysy]

A Dog will always be a Dog no matter what its owners say.

Where is the GIGANTIC japanese contract that rampers were on about ? Quiet on the eastern front i assume
How many competitors do CHA have ? How many do i have to name
are they selling a homogeneous product ? Juice its good but how would people know
Product differenciation ? Different label
Trying to be the next 42 BELOW but with none of the marketing genius ? i think yes
Too many what ifs

[winner69]

Well my prediction for this result was fairly accurate , Charlies is one of the fastest growing stocks on the nzx but i wouldnt expect you to understand that , judging by the childish nature of your post i would guess you just trying to score cheap points.

Am just reading a book called No logo which is all about the history of branding , interesting read which highlights just how important brands have now become . Charlies are doing very well and am more than happy to be a shareholder

Jeez Ratkin ..... reading anti globalisation stuff from Naomi Klein ..... next you will quoting from Chomsky

No Logo though is quite a good read .... I liked Chapter 13 the best --- all about reclaiming the streets and the things they do

Liked the story about putting some scaffold up on the M41 and putting some colourful material around it and while the cops were keeping an eye on the protester perched on top of the scaffold others were digging up the motorway and planting trees ... "Beneath the tarmac .... a forest" was the point they were making

Enjoy the rest of the book

[ratkin]

Look forward to that chapter , hopefully Sue Bradford not in it !! Unless she planted under the motorway that is.

[kizame]

For the Doctor and Stranger Danger, Not very bright are we,have you ever been in a business where you have to grow it?I don't think you would have any experience(by the sounds of it)in any sort of business what so ever.This same sort of growth scenario happens with retailers as well,if you really don't understand the whole principal then you are better off adding positively to other threads,not that it's not good to have varied opinions,but you do drag on and on.

[The Doctor]

For the Doctor and Stranger Danger, Not very bright are we,have you ever been in a business where you have to grow it?I don't think you would have any experience(by the sounds of it)in any sort of business what so ever.This same sort of growth scenario happens with retailers as well,if you really don't understand the whole principal then you are better off adding positively to other threads,not that it's not good to have varied opinions,but you do drag on and on.



SORRY i'LL CHANGE MY NAME TO 'DUMBO'...seen plenty of 'sizzle' and no 'sausage'...lets 'grow it'...400 plus p.e.?...ramping.b/s while the directors 'skim' on 'spin'...BIG JAP DEAL...?..HELLO!..free junket!...perception and reality...!...I am jealous...that you can 'float' shyte like this and take your profits ala 'some' directors to put to 'other uses'..or is that 'usuary'!p.s..I waS WRONG ON 42 BELOW..DID NOT REALISE THEY
HAD COMMISSIONED AN INTERNATIONAL M/B TO SELL the whole 'shooting box' ...without informing shareholders...just flew out of Subarnawarni airport ...1 of the worlds busiest-no sign of 42B...hello Warwick Fairfax no.2!

[foodee]

Highish volume today with support holding.
I wonder?

[ratkin]

Special crossing of 1,000,000 shares at 18c

[Phaedrus]

Here is an update of the chart posted on page 33 of this thread. The same 5 indicators and the same time periods have been used throughout. As usual, Green arrows mark Buy signals, Red arrows mark Sell signals.

With today's 1% drop, CHA has now triggered the last of the 5 indicators being used to monitor this stock.

Unfortunately for those that bought on the previous Buy signals, CHA resumed its downtrend not long after they were triggered. What we have here is a nice example of the system that got you into a trade also getting you out again when it turned sour - before any damage was done.

http://h1.ripway.com/Phaedrus/CHA94.gif

[foodee]

Phaedrus
Thanks for the update chart.
Should have acted earlier but did not - thus getting punished.:(

cheers

[ratkin]

Charlies showing a little strength today , volume light so might not be much in it, dont seem to be any sellers though

[ratkin]

http://www.phoenixorganics.co.nz/Home

Whats the verdict on these "edgy" new ads for pheonix?

I liked the last part where the lemon is being roped , not sure about the rest of it though

[kizame]

They are short 2 part adds,and quite catchy with the animation,so should be cost effective.
They also seem to be targeting very popular programs especially with teenagers and up.

[ratkin]

They should show them on the living channel during the "greenie" programs

[foodee]

Is the new soda drinks available yet?
Has anyone tried them?

cheers

[The Doctor]

tried the 'Old Fashioned' Lemonade..recently...bloody beautiful...must be that added sugar and water.

[ratkin]

See the shareprice is once again on the march , hope not too many were influenced by the good doctor or Mr P into selling your holdings .

Do Charlies own any NZ orange groves? I see at new world they are selling their NZ oranges , they never seem to mention this side of the buisness in their dispatches

[kizame]

Good gosh Doc. nice to see something positive for a change,be careful if the wind changes you run the serious risk of staying that way!

[Phaedrus]

...hope not too many were influenced by ... Mr P into selling....

Fear not, Ratkin - if they were acting on technical "Sell" signals, they would have the wit to recognise technical "Buy" signals too!

TA has given very profitable signals for this stock. At the very least, even if all people did was act on the first Sell signal and never go near CHA again, they would still be well ahead. It's the CHA holders that ignored that sell signal and held on "waiting for time to work its magic" that have lost money this year.

The chart features the same 5 indicators and periods as previous CHA charts. You can see that all 5 agree well, but the trendline break signals are the most timely. Green arrows mark "Buy" signals, red arrows "Sell".

http://h1.ripway.com/Phaedrus/CHA1010.gif

[ratkin]

Hows your marvelous uptrend in FPH performing?. Havent seen an update lately

[foodee]

Phaedrus
Thanks for the reassuring chart.
As I posted before my holding is 'free carry'.
Not averaging up at this stage, besides I need the dosh
for a couple of month's R&R.

cheers

[ratkin]

The share price is certainly showing signs of life , AGM this month , could somethng be brewing

[brettdale]

They are short 2 part adds,and quite catchy with the animation,so should be cost effective.
They also seem to be targeting very popular programs especially with teenagers and up.

Unfortunately teenagers wont be buying in large amounts, they will just be using this product to mix thier drinks.

I dont see a big upturn in sales for 2008?

I mainly invest in the Australian market, but if I was going to invest in a Kiwi company, Charlies wouldn't be it.

Any reasons, I should reconsidered?

[ratkin]

See Charlies has had their new add banned. Should be good publicity !!!

They have kept them on the website so you can see what all the fuss is about
http://www.charlies.co.nz/#features/f_sodaCo_tvcs/3

[tim23]

Brett - if you were investing in one NZ company I suspect CHA wouldn't be it, you would probaby go for FBU, CEN etc, but for a bit of a punt then CHA probably fits the bill, the product is pretty good too inc the latest ones!

[ratkin]

Charlies doing very nicely , growth is continuing well , the australian bottling plant and orchards are going to to be very good moves longterm.
Particularly interesting is the growth of pheonix into korea , numbers still small but evrything is moving in the right direction.

You can keep your Rakons and Pumpkin patches , while all around is chaos charlies keeps growing. Who would of thought they would be outperforming those names?

Still my favourite company , great products and a great team

[The Doctor]

Charlies doing very nicely , growth is continuing well , the australian bottling plant and orchards are going to to be very good moves longterm.
Particularly interesting is the growth of pheonix into korea , numbers still small but evrything is moving in the right direction.

You can keep your Rakons and Pumpkin patches , while all around is chaos charlies keeps growing. Who would of thought they would be outperforming those names?

Still my favourite company , great products and a great team

how are they outperforming those coys?

[Footsie]

yes rat how are they outperforming RAK and PPL

[ratkin]

RAK and PPL in particular have overexpanded , i fear for pumpkinpatch.
Any slowdown and what do young mothers do? They start passing clothes on from one child to another or buying on trademe. They dont buy premium clothes that the child grows out of in months.
Interest rates also hit them.

Charlies has been very careful about its aquisitions and has refused to rush or become overstretched. Much less debt than the other two stocks.
Charlies is now outperforming them both on shareprice , pumpkin patch has now almost halved from last year, while charlies has doubled.

Charlies in continuing to grow at a steady double digit rate of around 20% a year while RAK and PPL are only keeping it going by increasing debt and overextending.

Out of RAk and PPL i much prefer RAK , however i wouldnt swap my charlies shares for either of them.

[tim23]

Anyone tried the new soda range? If not you should they are superb!

[biker]

Anyone tried the new soda range? If not you should they are superb!

I think they have done the pink grape fruit perfectly. With or without a splash of good vodka it is excellent.

[ratkin]

Where are they selling them , i havent seen any in the supermarkets

[biker]

Where are they selling them , i havent seen any in the supermarkets


Have bought them at Toss Salad Bar in trendy High Street Auckland, Eve's Pantry Auckland and cold drinks cabinet in New World Redcliffs Christchurch. Havent seen any supermarket shelf stock.

[tim23]

On the shelves near the Ginger Beer & Franks range in our Woolworths.

[ratkin]

Just tracked some down in woolies, the pomegranate not bad.
Packaging of the four packs rather flimsy though. Wanted to buy a bottle of each flavour but they were not seling singles.

Price was reasonable at just over 5.00 for the four pack, there was a woman buying some when i arrived which was encouraging and the shelf was fairly empty, looked like there must of been quite a few bought.

Who owns Franks? they seem to be the main competition

[Footsie]

Frucor of course

[kizame]

And they are in New World,AND the displays of their products are gradually getting bigger,tried pomegranite at the meeting and it was very refreshing and distinctively different.
The wonderful thing about their range of drinks is the No Added Sugar part,I had a shweppes lemon lime bitters,and the sickly sweetness was quite disgusting,characteristic of most softdrinks,bluuck. An awesome product and range,I just really hope that these guys take the company to it's potential and not sell out at an early stage to make a mill or two,This really has huge potential.

[kizame]

Just tracked some down in woolies, the pomegranate not bad.
Packaging of the four packs rather flimsy though. Wanted to buy a bottle of each flavour but they were not seling singles.

Price was reasonable at just over 5.00 for the four pack, there was a woman buying some when i arrived which was encouraging and the shelf was fairly empty, looked like there must of been quite a few bought.

Who owns Franks? they seem to be the main competition

No mate the main competition is every other beverage on those shelves and then some,but there is franks and another organic producer who I can't remember the name of.

[tim23]

Probably Phoenix? CHA own them as well!

[ratkin]

Article on Charlies in todays sunday star times, looks like they taking market share from coca cola

[brettdale]

Is Marc Ellis still on the board? and how would his dealings with mintshot effect Charlies? Is he putting in 100% to Charlies?

Also I understand, Police might take action against him, for hiring a streaker to try and run up to beckham during the match last night.

Would all of this have any impact on Charlies?

Negative publicity cant be good?

[Mick100]

Article on Charlies in todays sunday star times, looks like they taking market share from coca cola

I can imagine warren buffett "running the ruler" over charlies:D
,

[chippy52]

I believe he stood down after his run in with the law

[kizame]

Is Marc Ellis still on the board? and how would his dealings with mintshot effect Charlies? Is he putting in 100% to Charlies?

Also I understand, Police might take action against him, for hiring a streaker to try and run up to beckham during the match last night.

Would all of this have any impact on Charlies?

Negative publicity cant be good?

Why should it have an effect,he is a director not a full time employee,he resigned 2005 to further other business interests. I think the management is more than capable of running the company as it stands,where mark comes in is his marketing expertise.Any other shannagins that go on outside the company is just a publicity stunt to further enhance his brand i.e. Mark Ellis inc.

[kizame]

Probably Phoenix? CHA own them as well!
Nah there is another brand I just can't remember the name.

[ratkin]

Well done troops, Charlies has been like a rock in a sea of trouble. Must of outperformed 90% of the market

Good news out today

Sales highlights for the six months to 31 December 2007
- Gross sales up 37% to $16.85 million
- Successful launch of Charlie's Soda Co. in October 2007
- Growth of export markets, particularly South Korea
- Growth of 60% on the same period last year in Australia
- Maintained stronghold on fridge space and listings in premium outlets
throughout New Zealand and Australia
- High growth trend in last quarter of 2007 expected to continue into
2008.


Particularly pleasing is the very strong performance by charlies soda company , certainly cant fault the great product range, very good indeed.

[dsurf]

They do not provide EBITDA, EBIT etc - assume a weak number on that front

[Placebo]

Ratty: Please tell me that post was ironic... CHA trading at 17c and in a downtrend since about April last year...

Okay to be optimistic, but this beastie is losing holders money... it don't even pay a divvie!

[Codfish]

Sales highlights for the six months to 31 December 2007
- Gross sales up 37% to $16.85 million
- Successful launch of Charlie's Soda Co. in October 2007
- Growth of export markets, particularly South Korea
- Growth of 60% on the same period last year in Australia
- Maintained stronghold on fridge space and listings in premium outlets
throughout New Zealand and Australia
- High growth trend in last quarter of 2007 expected to continue into
2008.


I used to drink 'simply squeezed' every morning. Now I drink 'Charlies'. Why? because they dropped the price.

Have their costs come down or are they buying market share?

[kizame]

I used to drink 'simply squeezed' every morning. Now I drink 'Charlies'. Why? because they dropped the price.

Have their costs come down or are they buying market share?

There costs will be coming down,read the annual report.
Also I don't give a damn if the share price is coming down in the short term,but if you are a trader I don't think you will be in this market anyway,If you are looking at this medium to longer term and they stay listed,you will be well rewarded,turnover on the up,Australia really going to come on stream once they are bottling over there,and that will be, in this half year.

Just read the report and look at what they are doing and think about it,as the domestic markets are softening so they will be gaining market share especially in aussie because they are in growth mode,as the Aussie market is largely untouched for their products,plus you have asian developement. I am very pleased to be deeply in this stock.

[Morpheus]

Have to wait for the half year results (late Feb?) for an update on margins, profits etc but the sales figures do look promising. Sales of Phonex in Australia now make up over 40% of total sales if I'm not mistaken.

[Phaedrus]

Charlies has been like a rock in a sea of trouble. Must of outperformed 90% of the market....

Ratkin, I worry about your lack of objectivity, particularly with regard to stocks that you hold.

This chart plots the comparative performance of CHA versus the entire NZ market over the last year. The scale on the right shows % gain/loss. It is quite obvious that, far from being "like a rock in a sea of trouble" and "out performing", CHA has in fact underperformed the market by quite a handy margin.

http://h1.ripway.com/Phaedrus/CHApc123.gif

I have included NZO here because you recently asked "Why do so many seemingly intelligent people spend so much time discussing this dog of a stock?"

Is it possible that you have got CHA and NZO mixed up?

[Toddy]

You forgot to mention the 'dog' NZO management versus Charlies high quality and skilled directors like Marc Ellis.

[ratkin]

1) When i said charlies was a rock in a sea of trouble i was of course referring to the last few weeks

2) I bought in at 10.6 cents so am more than happy

3) Very happy with Mangement, doing a fantastic job , have been very careful not to overexpand and as a result we have a company with virtually no debt and all areas performing well

4) Yes costs are coming down with increased scale and access to own orchards

5) P you are starting to show symptoms of stalking

[The Doctor]

the current p.e these days...it was so embarrassing at 400 plus they had it deleted from the media mkt indicies.

[Dr_Who]

I dont buy their drinks from the supermarkets, found them too expensive compare to the other drinks, so I dont have any in my portfolio.

[Placebo]

On the plus side, it is the Year of the Rat so perhaps this will be your lucky year, Ratty... ;)

[tim23]

Dr who - you should try the Quenchers - stunning, great mixed with Soda!

[ratkin]

This has been one of the best summers weatherwise for sometime , sure to be good for drinks sales.

Its not in the supermarkets but in the cafes and coffee shops where charlies does particularly well.
It is in these places that pheonix and charlies soda will be flying off the shelves. They are much more than just a company that sells orange juice.

[winner69]

I was at the NGV (art gallery) in melbourne last month and had lunch in the cafe and had a ginger beer and lo behold it was the Phoenix stuff ....

[Dr_Who]

Dr who - you should try the Quenchers - stunning, great mixed with Soda!

Ok thanks, I will give it a go. :)

If I like the taste, I may get some shares.

[Toddy]

Ok thanks, I will give it a go. :)

If I like the taste, I may get some shares.

Dr

Burger Fuel burgers taste great, maybe you should buy some of their shares too.

[Placebo]

Dr

Burger Fuel burgers taste great, maybe you should buy some of their shares too.


Hahahaha, yeah. And Feltex makes GREAT carpets :D

[Dr_Who]

Dr

Burger Fuel burgers taste great, maybe you should buy some of their shares too.

I maybe old and stubborn at times, but I am NOT stupid. LOL :D

[Codfish]

I used to drink 'simply squeezed' every morning. Now I drink 'Charlies'. Why? because they dropped the price.

Sorry guys but Charlies is out. She who must be obeyed doesn't care that it's cheaper, it just aint good enough. I have to agree, I prefer Simply Squeezed!

[ratkin]

Marc Ellis is on close up tonight talking about the banned ad

http://www.charlies.co.nz/# can see it here

[Steve]

Although he denies it, it does appear to be a case of making a fuss just for the extra publicity that CHA will get from it...

[tim23]

Either way it works _ I think he makes a fa point though.

[tim23]

Opps! I meant fair point!

[Toddy]

Although he denies it, it does appear to be a case of making a fuss just for the extra publicity that CHA will get from it...

Marc Ellis's willingness to break laws makes you ask the question 'what does he do in the board room'.

[kizame]

Marc Ellis's willingness to break laws makes you ask the question 'what does he do in the board room'.

I think you are surmising a little too much,what he does in his private publicity stunts,to promote Marc Ellis inc. Would be vastly different to what he does in the boardroom,he is not going to risk his investment or his business ethics,I think he is a little too clever for that.
Although I did hear some negatives from different people regarding his attitude on the Close Up interview.

[ratkin]

They are selling the t shirts for 25 dollars

http://www.charlies.co.nz/#

Was very good publicity , good time slot and better exposure than all the ads put together

[Toddy]

I think you are surmising a little too much,what he does in his private publicity stunts,to promote Marc Ellis inc. Would be vastly different to what he does in the boardroom,he is not going to risk his investment or his business ethics,I think he is a little too clever for that.
Although I did hear some negatives from different people regarding his attitude on the Close Up interview.

Marc was very consistent in the interview with how he normally acts and with his attitude. Whenever he opened his mouth he sounded like a stroppy teenager. Everyone else just rolled their eyes and gave a professional answer.

Maybe I was just away from NZ for too long and do not appreciate how many Tui drinkers are out there who would think he was funny.

[Steve]

Marc was very consistent in the interview with how he normally acts and with his attitude. Whenever he opened his mouth he sounded like a stroppy teenager. Everyone else just rolled their eyes and gave a professional answer.

Maybe I was just away from NZ for too long and do not appreciate how many Tui drinkers are out there who would think he was funny.

Marc Ellis acts professionally...Yeah Right! :D

[tim23]

I think he did carry on too much about the 99.9998% thing.

[kizame]

I think he did carry on too much about the 99.9998% thing.

Very valid point though!

[The Doctor]

reeks of insincerity and worse...juvenile antagonism.A 'celebrity'!?

[ratkin]

Poor doctor , this good weather must be starting to concern you. Was up the port hills today and the pheonix and charlies were flying off the shelves at the cafe before you descend into governors bay.

Plenty of thirsty people about buying those small charlies juice bottles at 3.50 a pop , must be a good mark up on those !!

[Steve]

Plenty of thirsty people about buying those small charlies juice bottles at 3.50 a pop , must be a good mark up on those !!
Good enough to turn a profit and generate positive cashflow?

[ratkin]

Very good result out today . Margins are improving , the new australain bottling plant is improving efficiency as are the more profitable product lines.

The growth story continues, good to see a company build up growth rather than going down the debt and takeover route.

[brettdale]

Does Ellis have a day to day say in running the company?

If so, I wouldn't go anywhere near Charlie's shares.

[kizame]

Does Ellis have a day to day say in running the company?

If so, I wouldn't go anywhere near Charlie's shares.
You should focus on the company and it's performance,not on sideline activities,if you base everything the company does on what Marc Ellis does then you are short sighted.

This will be a great growth story and Marc adds a little spice,sure may not agree with everything he does but it usually works out as publicity,and any publicity is usually good publicity.Lifts the company profile.

[biker]

What a great developing NZ growth story. A little company,with very little market interest,
expanding its reach and market share in NZ and judiciously growing exports. As this continues it will be bought out. Coca cola et al. wont sit and watch indefinately. I just hope there isn't a move for quite some time yet. More time, more growth, higher revenue, greater market awareness, increased takeover premium...... All to be realised with a little patience.

Disc. Sitting on a chunk of these with a further 2 year view. Average about 11c

[ratkin]

They know it too. No point trying to go for profit at this stage. They taking significant market share , the big boys will step in at some point.
In the meantime revenue and market share will continue to improve

[tim23]

Brettdale - Ellis is on the board is that ok with you?

[The Doctor]

the P.E these days...suckers?

[Nevl]

the result was out around Midday what took you so long Doc?

[kizame]

the P.E these days...suckers?

Same old song,same old violin player. He's a troll,what do you expect from trolls.
Ooops I'm not supposed to reply. haha

[Phaedrus]

Sitting on a chunk of these with a further 2 year view. Average about 11c
Good on you for getting into CHA at 11 cents, Biker. Well done. Unfortunately, you went on to provide a perfect example of what happens if you have no exit strategy. At one point you had made 138% on your holding, but then CHA went into a downtrend and through inaction you have now given the lion's share of those gains back to the market, retaining only 36% of the large profit you had made. You have dropped from making 138% to 53%. The price of inaction can be very high indeed.http://h1.ripway.com/Phaedrus/CHApc229.gifis

Basic technical analysis triggered buy signals at 9.5 - 10.5 cents before the uptrend began (page 8) and 5 months later gave sell signals at 21 - 23 cents, before the uptrend ended. (page 24)

[macduffy]

Having spent the last 2 years studiously ignoring CHA, mainly due to the Marc factor, I'm being forced to concede that this little upstart of a company may make a good investment.
Someone posted fairly recently that their main penetration is in the cafe scene where, from my observations, they seem to have an increasing market share. Buying the Phoenix brand has been a major step, imo. Despite my doubts I can't help comparing CHA to 42 Below, which I also despised long enough to miss out on the great takeover.
So, points in favour:
- Great brands.
-Fresh, vibrant image.
- Increasing market share.
- Low debt.

Points against:
- Board - unknown quality? - Chairman associated with Restaurant Brands.
-Low profitability - but improving?

Would appreciate comments from posters who have researched longer, deeper than my slight efforts.

:)

[tim23]

The products are superb too!

[CJ]

Despite my doubts I can't help comparing CHA to 42 Below,

42 Below had a world wide market. Charlies is probably limited to NZ and Australia?

[kizame]

42 Below had a world wide market. Charlies is probably limited to NZ and Australia?
Don't you read the reports,have a serious look at the one just presented with the results,then post a comment.

[Steve]

It appears that the hype around Japan has died a natural death...

[biker]

Good on you for getting into CHA at 11 cents, Biker. Well done. Unfortunately, you went on to provide a perfect example of what happens if you have no exit strategy. At one point you had made 138% on your holding, but then CHA went into a downtrend and through inaction you have now given the lion's share of those gains back to the market, retaining only 36% of the large profit you had made. You have dropped from making 138% to 53%. The price of inaction can be very high indeed
Basic technical analysis triggered buy signals at 9.5 - 10.5 cents before the uptrend began (page 8) and 5 months later gave sell signals at 21 - 23 cents, before the uptrend ended. (page 24)

I see CHA as a stock where a large price movement is possible at very short notice. ie buyout activity, new, large export markets announced (eg the Japan excitement), buyin by a large investor, fund etc and the percentage gains could be considerable. There is no way of knowing when this may be, if ever, but getting in then may involve missing much of the gain. I see much greater gains coming for CHA and as such I am happy to hold, sit and wait, rather than trade this one.

[kizame]

I see CHA as a stock where a large price movement is possible at very short notice. ie buyout activity, new, large export markets announced (eg the Japan excitement), buyin by a large investor, fund etc and the percentage gains could be considerable. There is no way of knowing when this may be, if ever, but getting in then may involve missing much of the gain. I see much greater gains coming for CHA and as such I am happy to hold, sit and wait, rather than trade this one.

Exactly; There are difficulties getting in and out of a stock of this size anyway if you want to trade,especially if you have a sizeable parcel.But agree with the positives on this stock,every now and again a stock comes along with large potential,and this can be plainly seen by taking a logical view,this is one of them.

[ratkin]

(http://www.bizjournals.com/dallas/gen/PepsiCo_Inc_789DEFB57D6C4AD3A3CD7144CBF7221F.html) PepsiCo Inc. (http://www.bizjournals.com/dallas/gen/PepsiCo_Inc_789DEFB57D6C4AD3A3CD7144CBF7221F.html) and its main bottler have agreed to buy a controlling stake in Russia's leading juice company for $1.4 billion.
(http://www.bizjournals.com/dallas/gen/PepsiCo_Inc_789DEFB57D6C4AD3A3CD7144CBF7221F.html)
We are over here pepsi !!! How about NZs leading juice company?

[brettdale]

What percentage of the NZ Juice market does Charlie's have? and how has this increased or decreased over the last few years?

What are their overseas sales?

They seem to spend a lot on advertising?

Does anyone know where I can get these numbers?

[Steve]

No doubt this will have a positive rub-off on CHA on tuesday morning...

[tim23]

Bretdale - if you search on previous company announcements you will find the answer, quite ok I think!

[ratkin]

Not sure the actual numbers are there though.
Large percentage rises each year but not numbers involved.

For example they might say they have had 50% increase in sales to korea but that could just mean two pallets instead of one !!

[Steve]

Not sure the actual numbers are there though.
Large percentage rises each year but not numbers involved.

For example they might say they have had 50% increase in sales to korea but that could just mean two pallets instead of one !!

That would be a 100% increase, wouldn't it?! ;)

Agree that it is somewhat meaningless without the base numbers to go off...

[ratkin]

They are increasing market share , that is the most important thing, and according to pepsi the juice market is growing

[ratkin]

CHARLIE'S TRIPLES PRODUCTION CAPABILITIES WITH OPENING OF NEW AUSTRALIAN
PRODUCTION PLANT

Charlie's Group Limited is celebrating the successful commissioning of its
new Australian production plant on 1 April 2008, with the first container
loads of Charlie's premium beverage products already shipped and on their way
to New Zealand.

The plant in Renmark, South Australia, was acquired in late 2007, and in less
than six months has been transformed into a state of the art production
facility specialising in Charlie's Honest Not From Concentrate Juices,
Smoothies and Quenchers.

Situated in the middle of an orchard to which Charlie's has exclusive rights
to long term supply of oranges and other citrus, the new plant gives the
company total control over production from orchard to market and offers
triple the production capability.

Chief Executive Officer of Charlie's, Stefan Lepionka, said: "The day we
started up the production plant at Renmark was the day we took another
significant step in our journey to dominate the premium beverage market.

"The new plant offers substantial long term financial benefits to Charlie's
with valuable production cost savings as the company moves away from a
contract manufacturing arrangement, and the increased production capacity
driving economies of scale.

"With the new facility, Charlie's can more easily develop and introduce new
packaging solutions to satisfy customer demand. The first of these, an
innovative new packaging solution for the Charlie's Not From Concentrate
range, will be introduced to the market in this financial year.

"In addition, the facility also significantly reduces the amount of time
required for new product development, from conception to market delivery.
This will allow Charlie's to implement an extensive new product development
programme for the Charlie's Honest Not From Concentrate brand.

Stefan continued: "To enter and compete in the Not From Concentrate market
you need to have a controlled supply of fruit and be able to produce the
juice at source. New Zealand does not have the citrus capacity to meet volume
needs which is why many of our competitors produce their juices using
concentrate sourced from around the world.

"The new production facility and our exclusive supply contracts in Australia
make Charlie's the largest Not From Concentrate juice brand in New Zealand,
and it is this category which is driving growth in the total juice category
in New Zealand and internationally.

"We now have much greater control over both quality and supply and are able
to ensure production levels meet the continuing growth in demand for our
products."

ENDS

[Phaedrus]

Charlies 16 month downtrend is showing some upward movement. The dotted line plots today's latest price of 18.5 cents. (The Close may be different) Be aware, though, that this was on a single trade of just 6000 shares. Someone was throwing all caution aside and investing $1100.

This could be the turnaround, but notice that CHA had a similar leap in early July that came to nothing.

CHA is not for me, but this must be an encouraging sign for the faithful.

http://h1.ripway.com/Phaedrus/CHA55.gif

[ratkin]

The faithful will be more encouraged by the plant in Renwick which has tripled capacity and sits right in the middle of charlies orchard , they have exclusive rights to all the fruit .
This is resulting in huge cost savings and means the fruit can be picked and turned into juice on the one site saving massive amounts of time.
They have much more contol over both the quality of fruit and its supply. Also have better access into the australian market.

The most underrated stock on the nz market.

It is rather amusing though that probably an inexperienced investor , buying a 1000 dollars worth at market instead of waiting for a better price appears to have triggered others into pushing it even higher.
There do appear to be more buyers in the queue today than usual though , so maybe there is some substance in it

[tim23]

Good article on the TVNZ morning business programme (too early for me I watch Michael wilson on TV3) the other day that I picked up via Charlies website; the CEO is quite impressive.

[ratkin]

Thx , hadnt seen that video , he sounds fairly confident about the company

http://tvnz.co.nz/view/video_popup_windows_skin/1739066

[biker]

Thanks tim23. Missed it also. All good with CHA. The share price will eventually take care of itself.

[tim23]

And hopefully you won't need an exit strategy either, gthe price should take care of that for you!

[The Doctor]

sign of a PROFIT yet?Plenty of hype as usual...in a recession do consumers want to pay..Charlies prices?

[Phaedrus]

CHA's 3.3% drop today has provided a nice example of Support, when broken, becoming Resistance. This is reasonably common.

The trendline-break tentative "buy" signal back in April was not confirmed by volume and you can see that the OBV is continuing its downtrend.

Having broken the support at 15 cents, it will be interesting to see if the support at 13.5 cents holds.

http://h1.ripway.com/Phaedrus/CHA73.gif

[tim23]

Even the volume has been weak when they have risen considering the number of shares on issue

[Steve]

What was the cashflow like? Was it mentioned in the announcement?

[tim23]

CHA
01/07/2008
FLLYR

REL: 0934 HRS Charlie's Group Limited

FLLYR: CHA: Charlie's Group Reports Ongoing Record Sales Growth

Premium beverage company, Charlie's Group Limited, today announced record
unaudited sales for the year ended 30 June 2008, of $33 million, up $6
million or 24% compared to the previous year.

Chief Executive of Charlie's Group, Stefan Lepionka, said: "Overall, it has
been a very pleasing year for the Group, breaking through the $30 million
dollar gross sales mark and continuing our unbroken record of annual sales
growth.

"The non-alcoholic premium beverage market is growing strongly, and Charlie's
Group continues to lead this market in new product development and with a
widening distribution network.

"Export markets, particularly Australia with 44% growth on last year, and
Asia, continue to be a significant growth opportunity for Charlie's Group.

"In addition to ongoing sales to South Korea, initial orders have been placed
for Singapore through Dairy Farm Group, a leading Pan-Asian retailer, and
from a distributor based in India. Asia presents a huge opportunity for
Charlie's Group and in 2009 we will be building further on our initial entry
into these exciting export markets.

"The commissioning of the new Australian plant was a major investment
initiative for Charlie's Group and it has shown immediate profitability since
production started in April 2008. The facility provides many benefits for
Charlie's including significant production cost savings, security of supply,
a 50 percent reduction in lead time to market and accelerated new product
development.

"Charlie's new, innovative square bottle packaging was made possible by the
new Australian plant, and has received very favourable responses from both
local and international retailers since it was released in late June 08.

"The transition from production at Charlie's third party contract packers to
our own Australian facility led to some temporary out of stocks from our
contract packers and product issues which have now been resolved. These
occurred during a record summer sales season that would have been maximised
further if the stock was available and are the reason that the Charlie's
Group expected year end result will be lower than previously forecast.

"As a result, Charlie's Group will produce a positive EBITDA result for FY08,
but will not exceed last year's EBITDA result as previously hoped, and a
small loss after tax is now expected."

Charlie's chairman, Ted van Arkel, commented on the Group's future outlook:
"We are now focused on balancing our ongoing Investment for Growth strategy
with generating positive returns for our investors, as the benefits from
investment initiatives put in place during 2008 start to flow through to the
bottom line."

Charlie's has shown strong profitability in the last quarter of the year as a
direct result of moving production to the Australian plant. This has
resulted in a large turnaround from the half year EBITDA loss of ($377,000)
and a positive EBITDA is expected for the full year.

Charlie's Group will release its audited results for the 2008 financial year
ended 30 June 2008 in late August 2008.

SUMMARY

Sales highlights for the year to 30 June 2008

- Year on year, gross sales up 24% or $6 million to $33 million
- Successful commissioning of the Australian production and packaging
plant in April 2008
- Initial export orders for India and Singapore and ongoing growth in
sales to South Korea
- Launch of innovative square bottle packaging for the Charlie's range
of products
- Growth of 44% in Australian market
- Increased fridge space and listings in premium outlets throughout New
Zealand and Australia
- Positive growth trend expected to continue into 2009.

Ends

Released on behalf of Charlie's Group by Jackie Fairbairn, spice
communications group, tel: 09 360 8500 or 027 246 2505.

For more information, please contact:

Stefan Lepionka, Chief Executive
Tel: 021 930 916
stefan@charlies.co.nz

Ted van Arkel, Chairman
Tel: 021 302 362

NOTES TO EDITORS:

Charlie's Group Limited is a leading manufacturer, marketer and distributor
of a range of premium juices and beverages under its proprietary brands,
Charlie's and Phoenix Organics. In 2005, Charlie's Group doubled in size with
the acquisition of the Phoenix Organics Group. Charlie's Group is listed on
the NZX under the code CHA.
End CA:00166851 For:CHA Type:FLLYR Time:2008-07-01:09:34:10










© Direct Broking Limited 2005.

[The Doctor]

stop dreaming...Initial export orders for India and Singapore and ongoing growth in
sales to South Korea ...volumes please...!

[The Doctor]

keep sucking 'lemons' you gullible shareholders....'but wait...NEXT year will be huge'!

[ratkin]

Yea charlies is doing terible , much worse than general motors , citigroup , lehman bros , babcock and brown etc etc etc.
If only all my companies were doing this badly.

Charlies doing well , whats another year?

[Dr_Who]

Bought some CHA fruit juice the other day. Dont usually buy them, cos CHA is more expensive than the other stuff like Keri etc. I am very impress with the packaging and branding. The juice is not the best tasting. They are in a very competitive market with many choices.

[brettdale]

Bought some CHA fruit juice the other day. Dont usually buy them, cos CHA is more expensive than the other stuff like Keri etc. I am very impress with the packaging and branding. The juice is not the best tasting. They are in a very competitive market with many choices.

Has Charlies ever tried doing an exclusive deals with schools around the country?

[minimoke]

Has Charlies ever tried doing an exclusive deals with schools around the country?
I have no idea if they have but can’t see why that would be a good idea. The kids don’t need the added wasted calories, nor the rotten teeth, The schools ought not to be locking into preferred supplier arrangements and parents would possibly not be impressed with spending more of their hard earned loot on a premium product.

[The Doctor]

another tale of woe for the ever faithful!!

[ratkin]

Best excuse yet for not reaching targets

"Subsequent to that update, problems with the Company's newly implemented IT
system were identified, which had inflated the October 2008 year to date results. Ted"


Looks a reasonable result in the current climate , company still growing nicely , hardly any debt , within three years the aussie buisness will be larger than the new zealand operation.
They are continuing to increase market share.

Worry for me is the slippery nature of that excuse , plus they have stopped mentioning pheonix.
For an "HONEST" company i would like to hear the good and the bad with these reports

[ratkin]

Note too that the possibility of creating an energy drink is now open to them. Shame there is already a brand called cocaine :)

[fungus pudding]

I think Morphine might still be available :rolleyes:


Plenty of Maori-juana up north.

[The Doctor]

10 years of squeezing juice and still no sign of a profit...oh well ,keep squeezing.

[brettdale]

I see Marc Ellis is now on the board of that Cafe, why would anyone buy into Charlies when one of their board members spend so much time on other ventures.

eg: Mintshot.

[biker]

I see Marc Ellis is now on the board of that Cafe, why would anyone buy into Charlies when one of their board members spend so much time on other ventures.

eg: Mintshot.


He is only on the board of CHA he's not the CEO!

[winner69]

Maybe the writer of this article was The-Doctor

Hopes of a takeover fading ....

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/analysis/2252474/More-juice-needed-from-Charlies

[Lawso]

Charlie's - a dog of an investment (I got out early, thank God) but a damn fine OJ - the best on the market IMO. I don't mind paying a bit extra for it, but it's often on special at New World.

[shasta]

10 years of squeezing juice and still no sign of a profit...oh well ,keep squeezing.

You old cynic you :D

They are building a "Brand"...

Along the lines of 42 Below i guess :confused:

Agree with Lawso, a very nice drink, not a good investment!

[The Doctor]

the products taste good.Competition is ratcheting up with the Japanese taking over Frucor and adding Arano to their portfolio.Charlies is of course technically insolvent.I rate them a 3c per share penny dreadful.

[The Doctor]

...stand by with your cash ,cap raising mooted.....extract some more from the faithfools!

[Dr_Who]

...stand by with your cash ,cap raising mooted.....extract some more from the faithfools!

Do they need extra capital to open a cafe at Piha?

[dsurf]

Ellis is not on the "cafe project" anymore - was a story in the Herald

[Balance]

...stand by with your cash ,cap raising mooted.....extract some more from the faithfools!

Someone is having a great lifestyle with all the money raised to date?

[The Doctor]

like the 'swan' is about to...'sing'.

[The Doctor]

closed at 11.5c....$230.00 worth...and tomorrow??

[biker]

There must be a capital raising very near I would guess.
I have dropped most of my CHA with a view to a possible rebuy during or after a recap. Certainly a very dissapointing company that hasn't performed at all like I had expected over the last 18months or so, and now have doubts about their basic business model. Cant keep expanding outlets racking up debt waiting for a takeover, forever.

[Dr_Who]

The juice market is very competitive.

This reminds me of Below 42. But this time round will there be a gay white knight to come and scoop Charlie away to never never land?

[ratkin]

Juice maker Charlie's Group says it's talking to other industry players about options for the business.
Asked today if Charlie's board was considering a full sale, capital raising or an asset sale, chief executive Stefan Lepionka told BusinessDay the company had been approached and was "looking at all options".
Lepionka added that Charlie's, which has a market capitalisation of $31.9 million, was in talks with "trade industry players about options". BusinessDay understands Charlie's is being advised by ABN Amro Craigs.




Bloke on buisness breakfast seemed to think a capital raising is on the way . although there seem plenty of rumours circulating about a takeover.
Maybe they just want us to think the company is in demand , so they can get more money via a capital raising

[Balance]

"We turned down takeover offers" YEAH RIGHT.

I think you are on to it, Ratkin.

Share price would have been rocking and rolling higher if there is substance to 'industry buyers' wanting to buy the company. Instead, share price has been under pressure.

I can just imagine a few holders waiting to unleash shares onto the market.

Did Fisher Funds not use to own a heap of these shares?

[The Doctor]

15%...$230 worth at 11.5!!Stand by the dumpers.

[biker]

A weak attempt at hype prior to the cash issue.



Company Announcement
17 June 2009


CHA – MARKET UPDATE

Over recent months, Charlie’s has had a number of approaches from interested parties
regarding the acquisition of all or parts of its business.

ABN AMRO Craigs has assisted the Board in evaluating the various approaches, and despite
indicative interest from various industry participants at or around current market
pricing the Board has determined that none of the approaches are an attractive level at
this time.

The Company is proceeding with its strategy to grow the Charlie’s and Phoenix Organics
brands across New Zealand, Australia and internationally, and is considering its capital
raising and other options to both implement that strategy and to reduce its current
levels of debt.

ENDS

[minimoke]

Over recent months, Charlie’s has had a number of approaches from interested parties
regarding the acquisition of all or parts of its business.


Probably because they sent out RFP's

[Steve]

Probably because they sent out RFP's

RFP's? :confused:

[winner69]

RFP's? :confused:

Sounds like they were touting for buyers .... and they say they turned all approaches down ... so read into that what you want

[winner69]

Never a truer word said by a CEO - really pushing this story for all its worth eh

“Our share price is at the lowest of all lows,” chief executive Stefan Lepionka told BusinessWire. “We’re seen as a target at that point,” he said. “We do have something of value and they (the multinationals) know that.”

http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/71bc5821/market-close-nz-shares-slip-as-recovery-questioned-fletcher-drops.html

[Balance]

Never a truer word said by a CEO - really pushing this story for all its worth eh

“Our share price is at the lowest of all lows,” chief executive Stefan Lepionka told BusinessWire. “We’re seen as a target at that point,” he said. “We do have something of value and they (the multinationals) know that.”

http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/71bc5821/market-close-nz-shares-slip-as-recovery-questioned-fletcher-drops.html

Don't stand in his way - he is going to privatise the company and sell it to the multi-nationals since you buggers all DO NOT have any understanding of value.

Heck, he has had to tell the multi-nationals to bugger off with their cheque books.

[Dr_Who]

Sounds like a Tui's advert.... Yeah Right.

[minimoke]

RFP's? :confused:
RFP = Request For Proposal

[winner69]

With Frucor buying Simply Squeezed is that one less suitor for Charlies?

[The Doctor]

at least simply squeezed makes a profit...something proving elusive at 'promiseco..a.k.a Cha.

[kizame]

3 comments I feel I have to make.

1. The Phoenix range is really nice.
2. Management are too arrogant to be any better than they are.
3. Why would you want to buy this company at any sort of premium to the current shareprice,when you can wait and get it cheap.

Used to believe in this one.

[Dr_Who]

CHA marketing and branding is very good.

The problem is their juice are expensive at the top end of the market. Premium end products will suffer badly in this market.

[The Doctor]

worse numbers....'Juice maker Charlie's expects to make a net loss in the range of $1.8 million to $1.95 million for the full year....'

[winner69]

The Doctor ---- record loss but remember on record sales

Is it a case of the more you sell the more you lose?

[kizame]

When management are clearly not committed to owning the company and seeing things through,and are trying to get someone to pay them more than the market rates this company,you just have to lose confidence in having any part in these shares.
It is not prifitable,they are clearly not confident of it being profitable any time soon.At the end of the day they clearly have no business plan.

Why would any other company want their products,they are nice,but they are not that special.Have noticed their range starting to dwindle where I shop.

[Steve]

I wonder if operating cashflows have blown out as well?!

[Glendoonie]

Does anyone have any knowledge as to why the a*se is falling out of the CHA sp?

[jonu]

Just looking at their last financials I'm surprised it hasn't fallen lower:eek:

[Dr_Who]

Does anyone have any knowledge as to why the a*se is falling out of the CHA sp?

Cap raising? Just a guess.

[Glendoonie]

Thank you for your feedback so far. I have noticed 465125 CHA have been traded today at 7 cents. Sadly, Glendoonie was not one of the buyers :(

[kizame]

Thank you for your feedback so far. I have noticed 465125 CHA have been traded today at 7 cents. Sadly, Glendoonie was not one of the buyers :(

Honestly! Why would you want to?

[CAM]

Sad?...be happy because they might go lower!
My guess its a top of the line brand struggling in a recession.
Now if they had Charlies luncheon meat.....

[Anna Naum]

No idea where CHA gets its oranges from, or what the pricing mechanism for oranges is but see that orange juice prices jumped more than 10% on Friday. US government said production in Florida would fall sharply this season after the citrus crop was hit by bad weather and diseases.

[Nevl]

No idea where CHA gets its oranges from, or what the pricing mechanism for oranges is but see that orange juice prices jumped more than 10% on Friday. US government said production in Florida would fall sharply this season after the citrus crop was hit by bad weather and diseases.

They have there own orchard in Aussie for the majority of their supply as well as own bottling facilities. So they are well sorted to benefit from any rise in global juice prices.

[Anna Naum]

They have there own orchard in Aussie for the majority of their supply as well as own bottling facilities. So they are well sorted to benefit from any rise in global juice prices.

Nevl, do you know if orange juice prices in this part of the world are influenced by say North American events? I do not know the answer.

[Nevl]

Nevl, do you know if orange juice prices in this part of the world are influenced by say North American events? I do not know the answer.

No sorry not sure either. Still I hope that Charlies get something right eventually. I guess the big juicers might be scratching around for supplies if the shortage is too great.

[kizame]

No sorry not sure either. Still I hope that Charlies get something right eventually. I guess the big juicers might be scratching around for supplies if the shortage is too great.

As far as I know orange juice prices are driven by demand,what difference is that going to make to charlies anyway,there is plenty of competition.
If you are suggesting they will make more by selling their oranges off their orchard,they need to be profitable selling their drinks,as that is their core business.

[Nevl]

As far as I know orange juice prices are driven by demand,what difference is that going to make to charlies anyway,there is plenty of competition.
If you are suggesting they will make more by selling their oranges off their orchard,they need to be profitable selling their drinks,as that is their core business.

No my suggestion is that their competitors margins will be squeezed;-) as they have to pay more for their oranges while Charlies will be able to either discount or maintain the same prices for the end product as they have no need to buy on the open market.

[Dr_Who]

You just have to go shopping at Pak n Save or Countdown in the juice section to know how competitive the juice market have become. There is always a discounted product in the shelves. Charlies is in the top end of the market which will take while to recover.

I dont know about you guys, but a juice is a juice and they all come from the same fruit, so why pay a huge premium for it?

The other thing I dont understand is why are people paying top dollar for large 10 liter bottles of drinking water at the supermarket when you get free water from the tap?

[kizame]

No my suggestion is that their competitors margins will be squeezed;-) as they have to pay more for their oranges while Charlies will be able to either discount or maintain the same prices for the end product as they have no need to buy on the open market.

The thing here though Nevl,is that a lot of Charlies competitors are profitable and run by much larger organisations e.g Frucor,so if your struggling to become profitable,I don't know that it is going to make a huge difference,whether you grow your own oranges or not.

[Glendoonie]

The other thing I dont understand is why are people paying top dollar for large 10 liter bottles of drinking water at the supermarket when you get free water from the tap?
You 'n me both, Doc. The water where I live is just fine. Chlorinated, fluoridated, clean and clear. What else is required? In fact, I use local tap water to dilute my Charlies orange juice. Makes it go further :)

[Steve]

In fact, I use local tap water to dilute my Charlies orange juice. Makes it go further :)

Classic! You must be a Scotsman! :D

[Silverlight]

EARNINGS GUIDANCE

Charlie’s Group Limited (NZSX:CHA) is pleased to advise that, for the six month period
ended 31 December 2009, it expects to achieve positive EBITDA within the range of $1.6 - $1.7 million. This is a significant turn-around from the same period last year, when EBITDA was negative $83,000.

NPAT for that period is also expected to be positive in the range of $1.7 – 1.8 million (which includes the gain on sale of the Henderson property of approximately $1.2 million). Again, this is a significant turn-around from the same period last year, when NPAT was negative $661,000.

Charlie’s trading update for the six month period ended 31 December 2009 will be released on 23 February 2010.

[Silverlight]

A reveiw of the Annual report released 12 Jan

TL @ 10.364m
TA @ 23.769m

NTA of 1.41 cps

Coupled with above guidance and latest trade @ 9.2 cps, PE will be 15 -15.9.

If you remove the one off sale the PE is more like 45 -54.

Current holders and the market are expecting big things from Charlies.

[kizame]

A reveiw of the Annual report released 12 Jan

TL @ 10.364m
TA @ 23.769m

NTA of 1.41 cps

Coupled with above guidance and latest trade @ 9.2 cps, PE will be 15 -15.9.

If you remove the one off sale the PE is more like 45 -54.

Current holders and the market are expecting big things from Charlies.

They always have,but alas it has always disapointed.
I note the much lower advertising as far as TV goes,actually non existant this last summer,will be interesting to see whether turnover has increased much,it will have in Aussie but that is to be expected.
Maybe they have settled in to actually run a profitable company instead of trying to flick this worldwide potential goldmine ( ahem ) off.

[Glendoonie]

Classic! You must be a Scotsman! :D
My God, that's uncanny!!! How did you guess that? ;)

I may not buy Charlies juice but I am watching the sp. One day I may even be in the black ...

[D_Pick]

Did anyone see CHA's half year result yesterday?

The half year numbers were excellent in the current environment.

CHA has cleared the decks and is profitable now which is a huge turnaround. Positive operating cashflows of $1.6m, cash & cash equivalents of $1.6m, plus profits and growth in Aussie which is a relatively new market.

[CJ]

I only saw the headline. If they can maintain profitability, they will be able to be valued like a proper company (ie. on DCF etc) rather than on future expectations. Could be a good turnaround.

So what is their forecast PE??

[Zito]

I only saw the headline. If they can maintain profitability, they will be able to be valued like a proper company (ie. on DCF etc) rather than on future expectations. Could be a good turnaround.

So what is their forecast PE??

Agree CJ. I like the result, it shows that management's strategy of containing costs and increasing margins is paying off. I especially like their debt profile, the fact that they are now cashflow positive, the cautious manner in which they are approaching the Australian market.

If all goes well perhaps a FY profit of $2m (excl one-offs) is possible, which would mean eps of about 0.7c or a PE in the range of 14 at the current price. Someone may want to double-check my maths.

Just my opinion. I am a holder and very encouraged by yesterday's announcement.:)

[D_Pick]

It is worth taking a look at the numbers attached to this annoucement (i.e. via the NZX website). The financial statements look clean and healthy which is a major turnaround.

Interest bearing debt is under control now, down from $7.1m to $3.8m sometime in March ($4.3m Dec HY figure less the March payment of $0.5m =$3.8m), and should flow through to ongoing interest savings of around $350k per annum (assuming a 9% interest rate on the $3.9m paid back). Interest savings will increase the more debt they pay off, and further debt repayments are achievable given their new positive operating cashflow situation.

With the focus shifting to profitability CHA should have a transformational FY10 result. Looking further out CHA will have significantly more options to grow its business in FY11 and FY12, given its new financial health.

I'm a recent holder and really like this result as you can tell.

[bryndlefly]

On asb securities today there's a grand total of 1000 shares on the buy side (versus 679,196 for sale), despite the most recent announcement declaring "significant profit for charlies"... Have investors lost all confidence in charlies? or just lost interest?

[Silverlight]

Nice spotting. If you look back to start of feb there was about 700k on the bid at 9.2 cents and only 250k on the offer.

I think CHA has huge potential, but the current management seem more focused on building the brand and revenues to attract a takeover offer.

[Anna Naum]

Getting cheaper by the day!!

[brettdale]

Any reasons for the signficant drop in its price today?

[bryndlefly]

i don't get it - share price has been on a nice steady uptrend for a few months, they announce a profit finally, and then buy offers dry up. i think there were zero buyers on asb securities for a short while earlier. Maybe theres just not been enough positive news to get people interested. I notice the last thing in the 'charlies news' section of their website is from almost a year ago.

[Zito]

Very low volumes (only $3,000 today) indicate there is nothing much to worry about. There has been no news from the company since their HY announcement, which was positive. I would suspect it is merely small holders getting the jitters about an eroding share price.

I would only be selling if I believed there was a reason to; eg news from the company itself indicating declining prospects, or a large volume of shares changing hands indicating a major seller.

Neither has happened so it's business as usual in Zitoville :)

[Anna Naum]

I would only be selling if I believed there was a reason to;

Brilliant, just brilliant

[Zito]

Thank you Anna....! it might have been poorly constructed, but I think you get my point. Too many people worry too much about the price, which can fluctuate on small volume. There is no rational basis for a 25% drop in price from a few weeks ago.

[Anna Naum]

Thank you Anna....! it might have been poorly constructed, but I think you get my point. Too many people worry too much about the price, which can fluctuate on small volume. There is no rational basis for a 25% drop in price from a few weeks ago.

Agree Zito, what surprises me is the % movement, its like someone turned the lights out. I also wonder why the NZX has not sent them a please explain letter?

[Zito]

Probably because the price movement has lacked any volume to substantiate it. Then again, it is the NZX.

[Anna Naum]

Trades at 7.5c yesterday, and is bid at 8.1c today......best offer is 8.9! Good old volatility.

[Nevl]

Trades at 7.5c yesterday, and is bid at 8.1c today......best offer is 8.9! Good old volatility.

Yeah all over the place. Might put in a low ball bid and see if I can pick up a few cheaply. The Kiwi$ weakness against the Aussie will be helping too. Any guesses for full year profits??

Expect 1.8mill excluding the 1.2 from the land sale.

[Zito]

Good result today for CHA, board & shareholders will be pleased. A nice turnaround after the last few years. A $2.5m NPAT ($1.3m Operating Profit excl one-offs) is good enough, but again, what is great to see is the company's equity ratio improving as they continue to repay debt.

Only a couple of slight negatives: (1) the soft New Zealand market looks like continuing for the foreseeable future - Australian sales have carried CHA into profitability this year; and (2) second half year operating profit (600k) was down on the first half of the year (700k) - although I'm am unsure if this is due to seasonal variability of sales.

At 9.5c per share as I write this, the shares only look to be good value if the growth experienced in this FY continues into next. If you exclude one-offs, that translates to a P/E of about 21.5.

[Phaedrus]

Over the last 3 - 4 years I have posted many quite negative CHA charts. These were not at all popular and attracted considerable criticism. Here, by way of atonement, is a longterm CHA chart showing BUY signals.

This chart is yet another illustration of the folly of buying stocks and then resolutely holding for the longterm, regardless of market sentiment. CHA is right back to where it was 4 years ago. Holders tripled their money - and then gave all those profits back to the market through inaction, loyalty to the brand and absence of any coherent exit strategy.

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/CHA824-1.gif

[aquaman]

As a new investor in shares and wanting to invest in NZ companies Im after a bit of help. From the last two posts and reading financials, Charlies does seem like its on the right path. Has anyone got any thoughts?

[kizame]

Be careful,as a new investor maybe you would be better looking at company with a reasonable track record for starters.
I was foolish enough to had invested in this co.a while or two ago,it had reported it's first profit then,and the sky looked blue.These guys say they want to take this company to the world(and all that drivel)but a year or so ago they were pretty much hoping someone would buy them out.
If you have a little cash you don't need,and you look at the charts above,one would say have a dabble,but remember it is an illiquid stock and hard to get out of if things go wrong.For the first time,stick to something that has reasonable turnover of shares/day and looks to benefit from any recovery.

[brettdale]

I thought a few times about getting into CHA, but thought against it, I just dont see it even doubling its share price within five years, its stagnent.

[aquaman]

Thanks for the thoughts, I may have a little "dabble" with them but will also look elsewhere.

[aquaman]

Well I know its early days yet but things seem to be looking good, Thankyou phaedrus for the chart . After purchasing, these have been the best performing .

[bryndlefly]

trading halt on charlies today, pending an announcement. anyone know what thats all about?

[bryndlefly]

NZX Release
October 19, 2010

CHARLIE'S RANGED IN 750 COLES STORES

In a break through multi-million dollar deal, Australasian premium beverage
company Charlie's Group (NZX:CHA) will soon be on the shelves nationwide of
Australian supermarket giant Coles.

The deal has the potential to double the size of Charlie's Group Australia
which had sales of $7m in the year to 30 June 2010 and contributed $1.8m in
EBITDA.

Spearheading the range is Charlie's Old Fashioned Lemonade. It is supported
by a further 10 Charlie's products including the brand's famed Spirulina
Smoothie, eight of which will be available in 750 Coles supermarkets across
Australia from early November.

Charlie's expects to squeeze around four million extra lemons every year just
to meet the Quencher demand.

The Australian juice market is very well developed and a tough one to crack
says Group CEO Stefan Lepionka. "Our 'not from concentrate' positioning has
proven its value," he says. "We now have a very big foot in the Aussie market
door because we use the best ingredients and have innovative, honest and fun
packaging."

The sales team has been working on the deal with Coles for more than 12
months and the Charlie's range was trialled in 37 Coles stores in Australia
over this time. The trials proved particularly successful and now Coles have
confirmed they will roll out the Charlie's Smoothie and Old Fashioned
Quencher ranges nationally.

The deal comes on the back of 39 per cent growth in Australia last financial
year and Mr Lepionka says it will significantly grow Australian revenues
further and bring 30 to 35 percent extra volume through the production
facility set up in 2008. He says Australia's warm climate and 22 million
people provide significant potential for Charlie's.

The Charlie's brand was launched in Australia only two years ago and along
with the company's other brand Phoenix Organics they have both gained favour
in some of the nation's trendiest cafes, restaurants and hotels.

Mr Lepionka says those establishments drive choice and opinion and by proving
itself in them, Charlie's has grown demand among a wider customer and
consumer base.

Charlie's varieties ranged by Coles in Australia are Old Fashioned Lemonade
Quencher, Mango and Orange Quencher and Raspberry Quencher. Smoothie flavours
ranged include Berry, Spirulina, Guava and Mango.

There are 750 Coles supermarkets in Australia with 100,000-plus employees and
more than 11 million customer transactions every week.

Charlie's Group (NZX:CHA) reported record earnings of $3.4 million in the
year to June 30, 2010. It achieved 39 per cent sales growth in Australia and
33 per cent growth in other export markets.

About Charlie's: Charlie's Group Limited is a New Zealand owned company
listed on the New Zealand Stock Exchange and operating principally in the
Australasian market. The company manufactures and markets a range of 'not
from concentrate' fruit juices as well as smoothies and organic beverages.
Principal brands are Charlie's and Phoenix Organics. The business was
established by friends Stefan Lepionka (CEO), Marc Ellis (director) and Simon
Neal (distribution manager) in 1999 and floated on the New Zealand Stock
Exchange in July 2005. Charlie's operates in New Zealand and Australia and
exports to territories in Asia, the Pacific, the Middle East and the Indian
sub-continent.

[D_Pick]

Positive announcement. Australia has become an important market for the group in a very short time period.

[D_Pick]

If CHA has entered Coles supermarkets in Australia, wonder how long it will be before they get an order from the competition, Woolworths, etc?

[bryndlefly]

shareprice up 45%, to 16c!

[ratkin]

Reality is the products will probably be stuck on the bottom shelf , surrrounded by the austrralians more familiar brands.
Remember , they have their products in all the supermarkets here but were still unable to turn a profit.

What will happen now is that they will use this GROWTH as an excuse not to make a profit this year . their spending will go up bigtime

[aquaman]

Hey ratkin, i think you should give these guys a break, In the last eighteen months they have reduced spending\overheads and produced a profit. I see that all they need to do is continue what they are doing and with increased volume of sales there should be increased profit. Im not in finance or an accountant but it seems like simple math to me. I think over the next year or two we will start to see this company perform

[Felix]

I think the 45% share price increase is a bit of an over reaction to the news, but it is definitely a big positive for the company. Interesting that they haven't gotten into the stores with the more popular, and higher volume, orange juice but rather the lower volume lemonade and smoothies. So for that reason I'm surprised at the huge share price increase. Might see the share price come back tomorrow.

Ratkin, to be fair the company acknowledged about 12 months ago that their approach of growing market share at the expense of profit was at an end and that "(t)he strategy for the Company going forward is to generate sustainable profitability for its shareholders" (28/8/09 announcement). Your right that they used to spend on marketing etc at the expense of profit but they have since moved in a new direction.

Things seem to be going well for them at the moment. Long may it continue.

[ratkin]

Sorry if i sound harsh , i have done very well out of charlies in the past and pay close attention to them.

I will giive you a little test. Go to your nearest supoermarket and try and find the charlies thirst quenchers. They are in little packs of four. They will proably be there , but the hard part is finding them

[Nevl]

Reality is the products will probably be stuck on the bottom shelf , surrrounded by the austrralians more familiar brands.
Remember , they have their products in all the supermarkets here but were still unable to turn a profit.

What will happen now is that they will use this GROWTH as an excuse not to make a profit this year . their spending will go up bigtime

Fair point but think of it this way

11million customers per week

lets say 1 in 1000 buys 1 charlies product per week

thats 11000 new sales per week about $20000 per week to charlies

thats 1.2million per year

given the fact they already have a distrubtion network and have being selling to 37 Coles super markets for the last few months I think that will equal about $600000 extra profit per year.

Thats pretty good for a company like charlies and I expect Coles would not have signed them up if they were not selling to more than 1 in every 1000 people.

Anyway its all good and think most of the extra sales will go straight through to the bottom line.

Anyway they say that sales to Aussie will double so thats an extra $7mill per year!! I think they will bank 40% of that.

[tim23]

Ratkin - you need to look closer the 1.5 Quenchers are prominent, I buy at least 2 of the Lemon flavour each week!

[D_Pick]

Assume the quencher range is one of the higher margin products Charlies have in their portfolio, so if the company can pump a bit of volume through their distribution network in Aussie of this product then profits should drop down to the bottom line.

In the last 12 months the Australian busines contributed significantly more to group profitability than its weight in total group sales. Assume this is because the product mix is better from a profit margin perspective.

[ratkin]

Am moving back in , but not willing to pay more than 14.5.
Was a little negative yesterday because i was peeved off at missing out , and was worried the price
was going to accelerate away. Happy to see it has come back. Go charlies go !!

[tim23]

Also noticed the 1.5 Quenchers have had standard price tweaked to $5.20 from about $4.20 i last 2 months, 2 price rises.

[ratkin]

Might be time to move to ozzie and become a lemon farmer

Riverland farmers sweetened by sour deal



FOUR million extra lemons a year are urgently needed in the Riverland by fruit juice maker Charlie's. In welcome news for the troubled district, Charlie's Renmark factory will now be pumping out its fruit juices to 750 Coles supermarkets nationwide.
"We're in serious need of more fruit," Charlie's Group chief executive Stefan Lepionka said yesterday.
The Coles breakthrough follows a trial in 37 stores around the country.
Charlie's is a New Zealand company which came to Renmark two years ago.
It has 11 product lines of juices and smoothies - spearheaded by a lemonade - and says it does not use concentrates.
Charlie's said the Coles deal could double its Australian revenue. Last financial year, it made a pre-tax profit of $1.8 million on sales of $7 million.
Mr Lepionka said enough growers were locked in to begin the Coles contract but more were needed.


Once it meets demand from Coles, Charlie's will look to talking to Foodland, Woolworths and other retailers.
Agriculture, Food and Regional Development Minister Michael O'Brien welcomed the announcement. "This is a terrific vote of confidence in the Riverland," he said.
In July, the Berri fruit juice factory was closed by National Foods with the loss of more than 60 jobs. The factory had been producing juice for 65 years and its loss was a severe blow - and led to the collapse of transport company Fletchers Freighters and another 160 jobs.
However, Mr Lepionka was confident Charlie's could thrive despite the difficulties faced by others.
"There's nothing wrong with the region - there's fantastic fruit and people with a real can-do attitude," he said.
Charlie's recruited three more staff this week, taking employee numbers to 38, and Mr Lepionka anticipates hiring many more. There would also be the flow-on job benefits for engineers, transport companies and other suppliers.
Guavas and mangoes are imported to the Renmark factory from other areas when necessary. Citrus and apples are sourced locally.
"If the consumer recognises and likes our product then the more we sell and the more we can employ," Mr Lepionka said.

[bryndlefly]

not many buyers left above the 12c mark

[ratkin]

Great announcement out today . Company reallt seems to have its act together now. Even talk of a dividend in 2011

[Lizard]

Yes, very tidy action there, Ratkin.

Wouldn't mind a few myself, though 16cps seems on the steep side still.

[Anna Naum]

Shareprice up, must be time for the major shareholders to sell stock for 'asset balancing reasons' it can only be a matter of time

[bryndlefly]

Shareprice up, must be time for the major shareholders to sell stock for 'asset balancing reasons' it can only be a matter of time

5 million CHA shares just traded?

[bryndlefly]

15 million ...

[Stranger_Danger]

"The toddlers made us do it...."

[Anna Naum]

CHA welcomes institutional buying on founders’ selldown

Charlie’s Group welcomes institutional buying on founders’ selldown

29 November 2010

Parties associated with Charlie’s Group Limited (NZSX: CHA) founding shareholders Stefan Lepionka, Marc Ellis and Simon Neal have today sold a combined 15.31 million ordinary shares in the company at 18 cents per share. The shares have been sold to institutional and private investors, who wished to take a meaningful stake in the company but are unable to buy enough shares on-market to satisfy their needs.

This sell down represents only a 5.21% reduction in shareholding between the three founders. This means that they still hold a significant interest in the company, and along with the company’s long standing largest cornerstone shareholder Collins Asset Management, the major shareholders have a total of 51.62% of the group.

Charlie’s Group Chairman Ted van Arkel said “We’re delighted to see these respected institutions and investors on our register. Their understanding of and support for Charlie’s mission to be world famous for our drinks is tremendous. We gave an update at the Annual Shareholders Meeting on Monday last week regarding the company’s performance and I was able to confirm that we look to be on track for a strong first half performance”.

Stefan Lepionka, Charlie’s Chief Executive commented “This decision has not been an easy one for any of the founding shareholder’s to make, however our personal financial commitments have changed significantly over the last eleven years since we started the business. The three of us started this business in our late twenties, with few financial and personal responsibilities. Between the three of us we will soon have eight children to provide for and the opportunity to sell to some of New Zealand’s key investment institutions is a good opportunity for both the company and the founding shareholders.”

[Anna Naum]

Got to love the PR dept, they know how to write a press release. For a company that less than a year ago told the market they were looking at a capital raising this is a win for the major holders.

[winner69]

I knew Xmas presents are expensive but hell $337,000 a child is a bit much .... whoops forgot the mums

[Everwood]

Some more positive news.


Asian supermarket win for Charlie's

In October it was Coles in Australia. Now Australasian premium beverage
company Charlie's Group (NZX:CHA) is heading to Hong Kong and a spot on the
shelves of another big supermarket chain.

PARKnSHOP has placed its first order for Charlie's and Phoenix Organic
branded products and confirmed it will be trialing the products in around 60
of its more than 230 high end stores over the next three to six months.

PARKnSHOP has a history dating back to 1828. It is Hong Kong's largest food
retailer and part of the A S Watson Group, an international retail and
manufacturing business with operations in 34 markets worldwide.

Charlie's Group CEO Stefan Lepionka says the order is a positive step toward
a permanent listing and relationship with PARKnSHOP.

"PARKnSHOP sought a meeting with us on a buying visit to New Zealand earlier
in the year. We are pleased to advise they have now confirmed they will trial
24 products from across our Phoenix and Charlie's range, with a view to a
more permanent ranging of the successful flavours."

There are more than 230 PARKnSHOP supermarkets in Hong Kong. PARKnSHOP also
has a major presence in Southern China where it was recently awarded the
title of "Consumers Most Favourite Brand Shopping Centre".

[bryndlefly]

Charlies on 20c a share today... i sold my shares a week ago, so it was inevitable that they would go up further... doh!
I'd convinced myself they wouldn't go any higher than 18c... anyway, i made reasonable profit on them i suppose...