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slam
24-08-2005, 08:24 PM
Hi All
Did a search and couldn't find a thread for this one.
Had a nice run of late and looking strong TA wise.

anyone else in this?

Cheers
Slam

aurelian
25-08-2005, 12:22 AM
Yes Its going well, came out of RSN

Packersoldkidney
25-08-2005, 01:31 AM
I know of a certain MotorCranium on these forums who was flagging this privately a little while back. Has the stock selection down to a fine 'T'. Hope he held on for the ride!

donnie
19-04-2007, 11:33 AM
A nice upgrade to 220m tonnes of coal announce today.

mark100
27-04-2010, 12:26 PM
Been in NEC since the SPP last year at 35c. Nearing a 5 bagger now. They're planning to mine coking coal near Maryborough plus have some other thermal assets. Just done a placement to the Chinese who have signed an offtake agreement for the coking coal.

Must admit I have doubts whether they will ever get it off the ground but its still going up and the well run Contango Microcap fund have NEC as their largest position

drillfix
27-04-2010, 01:06 PM
Been in NEC since the SPP last year at 35c. Nearing a 5 bagger now. They're planning to mine coking coal near Maryborough plus have some other thermal assets. Just done a placement to the Chinese who have signed an offtake agreement for the coking coal.

Must admit I have doubts whether they will ever get it off the ground but its still going up and the well run Contango Microcap fund have NEC as their largest position

Hi Mark,

Mate, I dont understand, you are holding and its nearly a 5 bagger, but yet you have doubts whether they will get it off the ground?

If I had any doubt they would get it off the ground, I think I would be cutting my position in Half, regardless if they were, or were not.

Support at 1.425 and intermediate resistance at approx 1.76, current sp 1.66, and the last 12 days has kinda been consolidating.

The stock is riding up on the 8ma which is above both the 20 and way above the 200ma,, RSI is strong so technically its not too bad though under, back to your original statement, for you to think about.

Obviously you should not listen to anybody, anywhere on forums but, I guess the question really lays with how confident you are.

mark100
27-04-2010, 01:41 PM
drillfix, my postion was halved at $1.49-1.60. When I question will they get it off the ground I mean will they actually mine coal for a profit? Stocks can run a long long way before that ever happens. Look at Arrow and QGC, never made a NPAT to date from producing coal seam gas but are worth billions. NEC does have a coking coal resource, the sector is hot with potential for more corporate activity, Chinese have just invested and signed an offtake so there is lots off good news supporting the stock at present but in 2 years when they actually want to sell coal who knows if it will prove economic? It's a make hay while the sun shines story...

drillfix
27-04-2010, 01:45 PM
Ahh, no worries there mark, I probably read your post a bit wrong and now Im with ya on the Hay and sunshine part. Like a lot of companies really.

For a while there, I was wondering "what part of a 500% profit do you not like" ROFL.

Well done.

mark100
05-08-2010, 12:29 PM
Got back into these guys recently at just over the $1 level. The choice of coal companies to invest in, particularly those in production or near-term production is falling. The days of CEY, WHC, MCC etc being listed are numbered it seems.

NEC is not in the same class right now but it does look like they are steadily moving ahead with their plans to produce coking coal near Maryborough in 2012. If/when the southern missing rail link gets built they'll get another decent boost

I see both Southern Cross Equities and Wilson HTM have all started coverage lately giving them a decent rap.

mark100
07-10-2010, 12:38 PM
Looks like a takeover bid. Time to get back into coal juniors if you haven't already

I've recently bought some COK on weakness and hold some NEC

soulman
08-10-2010, 03:46 PM
Looks like a takeover bid. Time to get back into coal juniors if you haven't already

I've recently bought some COK on weakness and hold some NEC

Well done Mark. I guess you are holding NEC now for a higher offer or maybe a hit and run.

mark100
08-10-2010, 04:14 PM
Well done Mark. I guess you are holding NEC now for a higher offer or maybe a hit and run.

Hi soulman, I don't expect $1.50 to be successful. On any sort of EV/Resource transaction multiples you need to get closer to $2 / share to be in the ballpark in my view. I bought a few more at $1.53 this afternoon

soulman
14-10-2010, 09:48 PM
Hi soulman, I don't expect $1.50 to be successful. On any sort of EV/Resource transaction multiples you need to get closer to $2 / share to be in the ballpark in my view. I bought a few more at $1.53 this afternoon

I bought a few at 1.57 yesterday. Seeing today's announcement and NEC willingness to talk with NHC, a higher offer is very possible and I am sure NHC would want to get NEC directors support for the next offer. Let's hope anything around $2.

mark100
12-11-2010, 01:56 PM
RBS has made a few comments about NHC's bid for NEC. They say NHC's bid for NEC shows NHC's ability to create strong value for shareholders through M&A and they have strengthened their BUY reco on NHC since the takeover bid, saying NHC is now a 'deeper value buy'. They also say the takeover bid as it stands would offer stable, low-cost coal production should shareholders accept the deal.

Increasing the bid from the current $1.50 to $2 would only cost NHC another $65m. I see an increased bid from either NHC or another party as an almost certainty

mark100
23-11-2010, 12:20 PM
Independent Expert has valued NEC t $2.70-$3.99, assuming an equity raising for the Colton mine.

NHC's bid of $1.50 is looking very irrelevant now

mark100
31-01-2011, 10:46 AM
Finally some movement from NHC, increasing their bid to $1.75. I still think a number closer to $2 is needed but it's a start

mark100
10-02-2011, 11:57 AM
And another increase in the takeover offer to $1.85, this time its unconditional and final. Time for any other potential bidders to show their hand.

corky
10-02-2011, 01:36 PM
Yes let's hope one of the 'multiple parties showing significant interest' actually submits some proposal. Do you think something over $2 is acceptable - obviously still well short of the lower end of the lower valuation but money in the bank is always good......

mark100
10-02-2011, 01:52 PM
Hi corky, even though I would be happy with $2 you could argue that with the coal sector being hot right now NEC is worth a lot more than $2 based on its reserves and resources. For example GUF has a market cap of $330m and no JORC defined resources and is being blown up on takeover speculation. At $1.85 NEC is capitalised at $240m.

From the BTU thread....

"Originally Posted by macduffy
The Buller Coal project has a JORC Reserve of 10.2MT, Resources of 47.1MT and the company has an exploration target of 60-90 MT.

A conservative price for quality coking coal would currently be well in excess of USD100 pt.

Then there is the value of the recently acquired Eastern Resources NZ assets, including those adjacent to the Buller project.

Originally posted by mark100...
NEC which is under takeover offer from NHC has 2 main projects (plus some stranded assets with resources). The Maryborough coking coal project which expects first production in around a year has JORC reserves of 5.9Mt and Resources of 83Mt. The Elimatta thermal coal project (located near Xstrata's Wandoan thermal project) has JORC reserves of 106Mt and Resources of 244Mt. NEC has a market cap of just $212m and NHC is only offering $193m. This compares with BTU's market cap of $600m plus."

Obviously there are all sorts of variables at play, coal type, quality, strip ratio, infrastructure etc but it is not out of the question that someone could come along and lodge a $2.50 knock-out bid which could still look pretty good value for the bidder on an EV/Resource multiple. NHC bid for RSP a few years ago, played hardball and declared their offer final. In walked Xstrata and bid 40% higher then NHC. Fingers crossed!

dan5
16-02-2011, 11:40 AM
I'm not a holder, but if I was I'd take $2 in a flash. That's because I think it's hard to include much value for Elimatta. In order to shipo coal from it, there needs to be built a railway to Gladstone. In order for the railway to be built there needs to be port capacity available at Gladstone - noone builds a railway without a port at the end of it. There is an expansion being built at Gladstone Port but it will have to service expansion of mines in the Bowen Basin that already ship through Gladstone as well. So in order to develop Elimatta you have to believe that coal from the surat basin will be preferred for capacity at Gladstone port expansion over coal from the bowen basin. Bowen basin coal is higher quality and the rail from bowen basin to Gladston already exists with Anglo, Xstrata etc able to expand their existing mines.

mark100
17-02-2011, 12:01 AM
dan5, Elimatta is next door to Xstrata's planned Wandoan coal project, http://www.wandoancoalproject.com.au/

This project is the driver of the planned southern 'missing link' rail connection. NEC is planning to ship coal from Elimatta through Wiggins Is, not until about 2015-16. A lot can happen in that time i.e. China's economy might have fallen over. But what drives the price now is the perceived value of those resources that are close to those of the majors.

That said, I sold a third of my holding at $1.995 a few days ago. If another bid appears that will be great otherwise I will take NHC's offer

dan5
17-02-2011, 12:43 PM
Hi Mark100. I agree that wandoan needs to get up for Elimatta to have a chance. But look at wiggins island stage 1 users: Aquila, Bandanna, Caledon, Cockatoo (presumable from Baralaba and surrounds), NEC (half mt from Maryborough), Curragh, Yancoal, Xstrata (presumably from Rolleston). All bowen basin new or expansion capacity. Why would it not be the same next time around? The only way the southern missing link gets built is if wandoan (and elimatta and all the othre surat basin resources eg COK) - all new mines - are better resources than expansion from all the mines in stage 1 AND better resources than expansion from the existing mines from the bowen basin that aren't expanding in stage 1 ie BHP, Anglo, Rio, AND better resources than new mines in the Bowen. If I was to punt on a new mine getting capacity in later stages of wiggins island I'd choose Bandanna, Aquila or Caledon because they don't have a couple hundred km of new rail line in their cost base.