PEB - Pacific Edge Ltd

[blobbles]

The shareprice fell 20% on news of the rights issue. Granted, it's clawed a lot of that back, but can we now assume that the dilution is now priced in and we won't see a drop ex-rights? Opinions?

I don't agree, the price was heading down and the rights issue appeared to turn it around.

Digesting the information from todays release...

The purpose of the rights issue is to "boost CxBladder rollout in the US". What does this actually mean?

I am guessing they are going to do any one or more of the following:

1. Hire some more people especially sales people.
2. Build a new/extend their current lab. I believe they are more likely to put in a new lab on the West Coast, particularly now that they have signed agreements which if fully realised will fully utilise their current lab (and is probably why they had to get their Dunedin lab registered for US overflow).
3. Use the money for lobbying the big providers into agreements to stock/sell CxBladder
4. Do some sort of big road show where they go around convincing doctors of its benefits or hold an all expenses paid type conference for urologists.
5. Do a huge marketing campaign - doctor journals/television/radio, who knows?

[MAC]

I don't agree, the price was heading down and the rights issue appeared to turn it around.

Digesting the information from todays release...

The purpose of the rights issue is to "boost CxBladder rollout in the US". What does this actually means?

I am guessing they are going to do any one or more of the following:

1. Hire some more people especially sales people.
2. Build a new/extend their current lab. I believe they are more likely to put in a new lab on the West Coast, particularly now that they have signed agreements which if fully realised will fully utilise their current lab (and is probably why they had to get their Dunedin lab registered for US overflow).
3. Use the money for lobbying the big providers into agreements to stock/sell CxBladder
4. Do some sort of big road show where they go around convincing doctors of its benefits or hold an all expenses paid type conference for urologists.
5. Do a huge marketing campaign - doctor journals/television/radio, who knows?

Agree, when the market digests the news and appreciates the extent to which this capital raising will bring cashflow's forward and that it will further raise fundamental valuations, it will put even further upward pressure on the SP over coming weeks/months.

[benjitara]

The issue of rights will only effect the share price as much as shareholders believe the issue to be positive or negative for the company in the future. Yes it's in theory weakening the SP but this company has far to many positive avenues of direction than dead ends at the moment. I believe there will be some leaking of the share price by traders after the issue but the days of getting this stock at below $1 (excluding issue price) may well be gone for good.

[blobbles]

I see the big seller of the past few days was probably Harbour Asset Management...

https://www.nzx.com/companies/PEB/announcements/242778

Offloaded 2.8 million shares...

[blobbles]

Oh - for anyone who has kept up but not realised what their sales potential is, they now have roughly 17% of the US market covered in terms of POTENTIAL sales for CxBladder. That means POTENTIAL sales of 320k CxBladder kits, when they only have the ability to process 260k tests, within the US. Most likely they had to ensure that they could cover their sales potential, which means registration of their lab in NZ, which was done.

In light of that, I think it might be obvious what they need the extra $$ for. I feel it will almost certainly be used, at least in part, to either extend or build another lab in the US. Does anybody know if their CLIA approval is reliant on their ability to process a certain amount of expected market share? Or to be able to handle sudden pulses in demand? If so then it bodes well for expected sales.

[tunsbro]

Oh - for anyone who has kept up but not realised what their sales potential is, they now have roughly 17% of the US market covered in terms of POTENTIAL sales for CxBladder. That means POTENTIAL sales of 320k CxBladder kits, when they only have the ability to process 260k tests, within the US. Most likely they had to ensure that they could cover their sales potential, which means registration of their lab in NZ, which was done.

In light of that, I think it might be obvious what they need the extra $$ for. I feel it will almost certainly be used, at least in part, to either extend or build another lab in the US. Does anybody know if their CLIA approval is reliant on their ability to process a certain amount of expected market share? Or to be able to handle sudden pulses in demand? If so then it bodes well for expected sales.

I like your thinking.

[blobbles]

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11144960

So that looks like $6.6 million for "operational expenditure" at their labs... lab extension anyone? Not sure how their Hersheys lab is set up, but its entirely possible they will just take over another floor or area in their current building if they need to expand.

I also like Davids comment on the $100 million revenue target: "It's a very doable target, and could come sooner". Generally I have found he says stuff like this when other people would say "We will definitely do that in less than the time stated.". So 2-3 years then?

[Nigel]

And more coverage on Larry Williams' Newstalk ZB show just now.

[barney]

PEDUSA’s sales force was on the ground at the start of July, seeking to build relationships with targeted LUG practices
•Several of these have now successfully completed their User Programmes and have made their first commercial orders

So it looks like some of the LUGs are now on board.

Found it hard to get a good nights sleep last night. It was a bit like being an exited kid on Christmas eve.

[Xerof]

I see the big seller of the past few days was probably Harbour Asset Management...



Was that them offloading at 49 last Thursday?

[Copper]

Interesting the hype has rubbed off on CDY in a round about way......

[Copper]

Was that them offloading at 49 last Thursday?

Somewhere I saw Masfen had sold 10 mill.......in the 70's I think..

[GR8DAY]

.....picking $135/140 as a more "sensible" price close but still incredible gains over the week.


...good to know the old gutometer still working well!!..............LOL (tomorrow however is also going to be interesting when word of this 55c "gift" gets out)?

[zs_cecil]

The recent hype of PEB and Xero makes me think that PEB could list its US subsidiary in US market one day for its expansion (Which might be earlier than Xero).

[stoploss]

CDY taking a lift as well over at ASX.
Hitching a ride on the back of PEB maybe.They got pay royalty payment recently of just over a million shares in PEB,thats is 5% of that company's market cap.

Held PEB since 2005 and recent got into CDY

Thanks Clem, joined you on this one :)

[barney]

And more coverage on Larry Williams' Newstalk ZB show just now.

Rod Oram was just on the same program with another show of support.

Larry Willaims made a comment regarding the shareprice rise in the last week and Rod's reply was " and rightly so to."

Followed by a quick" oh, I should'nt be giving out financial advice." Bit of a hoot.

[Minerbarejet]

Oh - for anyone who has kept up but not realised what their sales potential is, they now have roughly 17% of the US market covered in terms of POTENTIAL sales for CxBladder. That means POTENTIAL sales of 320k CxBladder kits, when they only have the ability to process 260k tests, within the US. Most likely they had to ensure that they could cover their sales potential, which means registration of their lab in NZ, which was done.

In light of that, I think it might be obvious what they need the extra $$ for. I feel it will almost certainly be used, at least in part, to either extend or build another lab in the US. Does anybody know if their CLIA approval is reliant on their ability to process a certain amount of expected market share? Or to be able to handle sudden pulses in demand? If so then it bodes well for expected sales.
My thoughts exactly blobbles - large scale expansion coming up and a nov announcement while not amazing still pretty good. Wait til Feb and get that quarter, that will give you some indication of the expansion. Hanging in there.
Minerbarejet

[777]

...good to know the old gutometer still working well!!..............LOL (tomorrow however is also going to be interesting when word of this 55c "gift" gets out)?

Interesting way off looking at it. It is simply a slightly bigger pie cut into slightly smaller pieces. The big thing is the company has more money to work with.

[NZSilver]

Can someone please explain this rights issue thing to me if for example I had 10000 shares?

What do I need to do to get the extra shares? should I take the extra shares (seem like I should at .55 cents)? it is confusing me but I don't think Im the only one.

[blobbles]

Interesting way off looking at it. It is simply a slightly bigger pie cut into slightly smaller pieces. The big thing is the company has more money to work with.

I think the best way to look at it is: If I want to have the same sized piece of pie, I give them money. If I am willing to let the size of my pie shrink, don't give them money. In those terms the actual number of shares you have is meaningless.

[Lorne Ranger]

Interesting way off looking at it. It is simply a slightly bigger pie cut into slightly smaller pieces. The big thing is the company has more money to work with.

Exactly. This is at worst a neutral proposition in terms of overall share value, but more likely a positive given the usefulness of the extra cash. Its the gain from sales and expansion that will affect the SP more than the actual share issues I think. Besides the market has shown it has a tolerance for this in recent weeks, no reason why it should change it's tune for PEB given its recent breakthroughs.

Topped up this afternoon on a two year old PEB holding.

[Minerbarejet]

Interesting the hype has rubbed off on CDY in a round about way......
CDY is the cherry on top with all this - goes into the long term hold from here on- any profits from oz will be going into this from here on in. @ 2.5 % royalties coming from PEB never mind all the others it is involved with.
DYOR but it looks a good complementary buy. Could do with a share consolidation though.

[blobbles]

Can someone please explain this rights issue thing to me if for example I had 10000 shares?

What do I need to do to get the extra shares? should I take the extra shares (seem like I should at .55 cents)? it is confusing me but I don't think Im the only one.

Someone correct me if I am wrong:
1. All shareholders will be sent a document regarding the rights issue. The document will be the same as that in the announcement.
2. On receipt of the document, you chose what you want to do. If you don't want to participate, do nothing. If you do, fill out the details and send to the address on the rights issue with a check or do some online banking. Do all this before the dates indicated.
3. Link Market services will pretty much sort the rest out, sending you an update of how many shares you have after the rights have been issued on 4th December. You can sort out how many shares you have through your broker if it isn't done automagically.

[geo]

Blobbles can you please explain the large element of risk would be.

[Balance]

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11144960

Excerpt :

"That's seen the share price climb as high as a $1.75, a record, and Darling said there had been quite a lot of interest from Asian and US investors after the company received coverage in the Wall Street Journal."

"The offer was "carefully priced for our shareholders to make sure they get upside," Darling said."
The offer was "carefully priced for our shareholders to make sure they get upside," Darling said.

[CJ]

So that looks like $6.6 million for "operational expenditure" at their labs... lab extension anyone?No - that would be capital expenditure. Opex is the money need to process the 200k tests they will be doing this year ;)

[blobbles]

Blobbles can you please explain the large element of risk would be.

The large element of risk is the same which exists today - currently their sales numbers are incredibly low, they do not have a lot of CONFIRMED sales at this point. That means there is an element of risk in that they may not be as successful as hoped or may not be successful at all. We could end up finding out that their science was somehow flawed (as it is still pretty early days, though the risk of this now is almost zero) or the current incumbent could release a new, more accurate and more competitive test. This is a biotech stock which tend to rise and fall spectacularly. Generally they are binary, they either completely succeed or completely fail (depending on your definition of both).

If you commit more money to the company, you are committing more risk to the company. This is important to remember. You could NOT commit more money in the rights issue and have the same amount of risk you do now, but with slightly less potential reward. But if you DO commit more money, you have higher risk with the same amount of reward, as you will own the same % of the company that you did before the rights issue. However, the rights issue will give them more money, enabling them to move their sales forward faster, so you could argue your risk is the same if you are an evangelist like me :)

[MAC]

The US lab is designed to handle 4,000 tests per week or 208,000 per annum, so it would be some years before more capex for cxbladder in the US is required. If you had asked be yesterday I may have said 4-5 years, but with the prospect of the capital raising and prospective acceleration in roll out, it seems like it may be less though now.

[blobbles]

No - that would be capital expenditure. Opex is the money need to process the 200k tests they will be doing this year ;)

Kind of what I realised too after thinking about it. But where is the line drawn? If they currently have lots of space for more machines/people and the number of sales grows to the point they need them for normal operations, yet it increases their capacity, is that still CAPEX?

[CJ]

Kind of what I realised too after thinking about it. But where is the line drawn? If they currently have lots of space for more machines/people and the number of sales grows to the point they need them for normal operations, yet it increases their capacity, is that still CAPEX?equipment = capex
Wages and consumables = opex

[blobbles]

If I could add, it is now a hell of a lot less than it was in post number one! Have a wee look at that.

Absolutely! And for me, the risk is significantly small that I don't even bother thinking about it much. But that doesn't mean it doesn't exist still and we should still tell others that while the potential for greatness most certainly is there, so is the risk of failure, which is still there yet diminishing almost daily.

The other major risk at the moment is a possible torpedoing through politics. I have no idea where this would come from or what form it could take, which is exactly why it is so hard to account for it. But it is a large possibility in the states as other members have pointed out before (thank you all!).

[geo]

Bobbles. How do know that the sales numbers are incredibly low, do you have more info than the rest of us?
As far as I an concerned This company has just about totally de risked and can only lead all of us to riches.

[Dentie]

Over 33m shares changed hands in CDY today ...up over 17%. Certainly glad to be part of that as well and a natural complementary stock to PEB.

[The Rocket]

Forgive me for being a bit thick if I brought PEB shares tomorrow will I be entitled to get the extra shares at .55 cents

[777]

Yep, and if you do nothing, your rights will appear in your on-line account ready to trade on the day.

Not so. A lot of people do not have an online account. If you want to sell your rights then you have instruct a a broker to do so. The only thing that says you have the rights is the entitlement that will be sent out after the ex rights date.

[777]

Perhaps I assumed people without an on-line account would think, gosh I do not have one of those. Silly me.

But having an online account does not mean the rights will just appear there for you to sell.

[blobbles]

Bobbles. How do know that the sales numbers are incredibly low, do you have more info than the rest of us?
As far as I an concerned This company has just about totally de risked and can only lead all of us to riches.

Read previous sales reports. They show that current reported sales are low. As you can read in the Annual Report from July of this year, 2012 CxBladder sales were worth $9615 and $15022 in 2013. That is rather small. Until we have a sales report in our hot little hands that says that number has increased dramatically, the risk is still there.

The next sales report I believe is due next month, so we don't have long to wait :)

And no, I have no further information than anyone else and are not connected to the company in any way (other than being part owner!)

[zymwh]

i do not know about rights. but several years ago when i was given options they were automatically shown on my online accounts.

[blobbles]

Perhaps someone is able to read this dilemma and post some in-depth advice / instruction for those shareholders who will obviously want to sell their rights via an on-line account. I cannot give it and 777 don’t seem to want to.

Huh? Rights appearing on your online account to sell? I thought it worked simple as this:

If you take the rights issue, you will be issued with extra shares, which may or may not appear automagically through your broking service.
If you do not take the rights issue, you will not be issued with extra shares, which will definitely not appear on your broking service.

It's not as simple as that?

[777]

Perhaps someone is able to read this dilemma and post some in-depth advice / instruction for those shareholders who will obviously want to sell their rights via an on-line account. I cannot give it and 777 don’t seem to want to.

Comprehension not your strong point.

I stated in my post 3542 the following

"The only thing that says you have the rights is the entitlement that will be sent out after the ex rights date." This is in the form of a letter.

You have to be proactive if you wish to sell your rights. They are sold just like any other share.

[blobbles]

You can sell you rights on market between the dates of 5 November and 21 November if you do not accept to purchase, and do not want to leave it to the book build.

Right, with ya. Just read the offer documents properly, duh!

[Xerof]

You can sell you rights on market between the dates of 5 November and 21 November if you do not accept to purchase, and do not want to leave it to the book build.

Mr Magoo,

forget the bookbuild bit, I doubt that will even come into play, such will be demand.

Any sensible person will do one of two things - pay for the shares as per the instructions, or sell the rights to the market within the timeframe specified. They will have a special NZX code and can be sold like any other share.

Option 3 is do nothing. Do nothing means get nothing, except dilution, so better do something!

Oversubscription is a further option - you can take all your entitlement, and apply for up to 100% of your entitlement volume, if you are still unsatisfied with your lot. Probably get scaled though, and it's a messy business

For CJ, are there any tax implications for selling the rights? I think not but would be helpful for peeps to know

[Minerbarejet]

And on this thread we have accumulated 23 pages since the first announcement 7 days ago. Well done all posters - take a bow for all your valuable input.

[benjitara]

Read previous sales reports. They show that current reported sales are low. As you can read in the Annual Report from July of this year, 2012 CxBladder sales were worth $9615 and $15022 in 2013. That is rather small. Until we have a sales report in our hot little hands that says that number has increased dramatically, the risk is still there.



I would answer that by saying the route to market was not defined nor available for PEB and cxbladder during the periods your commenting on. The reason why this price surge has taken place is PEB has now taken large steps to ensuring their product can be promoted to a large number of American patients. A massive step forward from the situation that your referring to. Sales in this November report will not be high and I'm picking traders will see the share price down towards $1 once more but that will most probably be the only time investors get a bite at this stock at anything like $1 levels. This is a stock that has made huge strides in the right direction in the past two years.
Very happy to be holding and only wishing I got more when I had the money to do so.

[apac]

Any guesses for SP tomorrow? Will we see it dip below $1 again?

[goldfish]

Any guesses for SP tomorrow? Will we see it dip below $1 again?

I hope not or my "investment" will quickly become just another trade.

[False Profit]

If it goes to a single dollar I'm still doubling my original stake. Can't grumble...We want it to settle down and lose the volatility shown in recent days.

Turn off PC / phone alerts > come back in 12 months > smile broadly and retire to sun drenched island in the Pacific.

[goldfish]

The problem for me is i sit there watching my profits get less and less and its not easy, just want to take the money and buy in when/if it goes lower. Its a lot of money for someone who doesnt have much.

i made just under half a years salary in two days. And watching or knowing its dropping and im losing money is just to hard, when will it stop i wonder, will i loose it all.

I really want to hold this stock long term but the more i think about it the more i wonder if i should just take my profit, or else it could vanish.

[winner69]

The problem for me is i sit there watching my profits get less and less and its not easy, just want to take the money and buy in when/if it goes lower. Its a lot of money for someone who doesnt have much.

i made just under half a years salary in two days. And watching or knowing its dropping and im losing money is just to hard, when will it stop i wonder, will i loose it all.

I really want to hold this stock long term but the more i think about it the more i wonder if i should just take my profit, or else it could vanish.

In that frame of mind you should sell first thing today ....and be happy.

Methinks current price about it good as it going to get for a while so goldfish you only be happy if you sell

Bit worried that you then intend buying in again 'lower' .....you stating gamble
now?

Big if you believe the PEB story do what FPA says - Turn off PC / phone alerts > come back in 12 months > smile broadly and retire to sun drenched island

[CJ]

For CJ, are there any tax implications for selling the rights? I think not but would be helpful for peeps to know
Don't think so. You were given them so you had no intention at the time of acquisition

Any guesses for SP tomorrow? Will we see it dip below $1 again?No. Will be buy if it does.

[barney]

http://www.odt.co.nz/news/business/278315/pacific-edge-shares-volatile

From the June update:"Pacific Edge anticipates commencing negotiations in earnest with Medicare and Medicaid in July 2013, with this continuing until
August 2014. Pacific Edge has already conducted preliminary discussions."

From yesterdays announcement:" Pacific Edge anticipates continuing and concluding negotiations in earnest with Medicare and Medicaid in 2014. Pacific Edge
has already conducted preliminary discussions with these entities."

Does this mean a deal earlier than August 2014. Earlier in the new year perhaps ?

[Minerbarejet]

The problem for me is i sit there watching my profits get less and less and its not easy, just want to take the money and buy in when/if it goes lower. Its a lot of money for someone who doesnt have much.

i made just under half a years salary in two days. And watching or knowing its dropping and im losing money is just to hard, when will it stop i wonder, will i loose it all.

I really want to hold this stock long term but the more i think about it the more i wonder if i should just take my profit, or else it could vanish.Have you got a plan for the profit to go into something else or are you going to sit back and admire it, spend a bit here and there and watch it vanish anyway. Why dont you just look at your investment in PEB as a 3 year term deposit, you will probably be getting some dividends by then. By then you should have a fair capital gain as well. You can always milk a bit out of it if you need it for something specific without penalty and if fortune strikes elswhere you can add to it.
You only have a paper profit which is liable to short term fluctuations- try and focus on the company and its potential rather than the ups and downs in this particular case. Its Huge.
Good luck

[False Profit]

The problem for me is i sit there watching my profits get less and less and its not easy, just want to take the money and buy in when/if it goes lower. Its a lot of money for someone who doesnt have much.

i made just under half a years salary in two days. And watching or knowing its dropping and im losing money is just to hard, when will it stop i wonder, will i loose it all.

I really want to hold this stock long term but the more i think about it the more i wonder if i should just take my profit, or else it could vanish.

It's a sobering thought that some of us have made a nice profit by stretching ourselves a little thin because we believed in the company and its potential. Now that faith has been justified we're in a position we wanted to be in but were not ready for. On paper we're doing really well but if we sell, as Miner says, what then? I'd put some back into the market but I've already got my eyes on an iPad for the Missus' birthday and that's going to cost me over 900 PEB shares at current value. Easy to fritter is what I'm getting at.

As my Dad used to say - It's scary but sometimes we have to put our hand down our trousers and find our balls.

[Balance]

It's a sobering thought that some of us have made a nice profit by stretching ourselves a little thin because we believed in the company and its potential. Now that faith has been justified we're in a position we wanted to be in but were not ready for. On paper we're doing really well but if we sell, as Miner says, what then? I'd put some back into the market but I've already got my eyes on an iPad for the Missus' birthday and that's going to cost me over 900 PEB shares at current value. Easy to fritter is what I'm getting at.

As my Dad used to say - It's scary but sometimes we have to put our hand down our trousers and find our balls.

Investment adage : "Cut your losses and let your profits run".

Believe me that I see too many people, myself included, make the mistake of doing the opposite - and regretting later.

How you feel is natural, and that's why the market is all about understanding human psychology too.

Think about those who bought PEB at 20c, saw it go to 34c (nice 70% profit) 2 years ago, sold out at 30c (don't want to lose profits) nd now, are wondering how they left 300% profit on the table?

[Dentie]

Just in case you haven't yet listened...

http://www.newstalkzb.co.nz/player/ondemand/1585619180-rod-oram--pacific-edge

Nice words....

[Minerbarejet]

Anyone care to see my modelling now I have included Asia?

(It may hurt your eyes... particularly if you are selling...)

4937
4938Thanks for these blobbles- make interesting reading for anyone unsure about things and where they MAY lead. Thought I would bring them to the front of the thread as nobody said anything back when you posted? Thought Johnnythehorse would have been right into that.:)

[Dentie]

Thanks for the link. I missed a lot of the media action last night (baby sitting) so trying to catch up. Is there anything else I should read/listen to?

Much of the same good stuff plastered all over the media from here to Timbuktoo... I would think you are up with the rest of us T...

[zs_cecil]

Thanks for the link. I missed a lot of the media action last night (baby sitting) so trying to catch up. Is there anything else I should read/listen to?

Not much new information from Rod's interview I think. He just expressed his optimistic veiw on the future of Peb.

[Whipmoney]

In that frame of mind you should sell first thing today ....and be happy.

Methinks current price about it good as it going to get for a while so goldfish you only be happy if you sell

Bit worried that you then intend buying in again 'lower' .....you stating gamble
now?

Big if you believe the PEB story do what FPA says - Turn off PC / phone alerts > come back in 12 months > smile broadly and retire to sun drenched island

Whilst personally I think that the stock will trend back downwards to consolidate, I'm cognisant that it only takes one more deal to be signed before the stock takes off skyward again... and if that deal is with medicare/medicaid or another big insurer then we can probably expect big things.

Despite the risk of retrenchment I don't want to get caught on the sidelines when any positive announcements come out.

DISC: holding despite being tempted to take profit.

[Nigel]

Not 5%! Less than 0.5%.

I think he's talking about the value of shares granted to CDY (circa $1mil) being 5% of CDY's market cap (circa $20mil).

[Merc]

We have a water tank with a one inch clear pipe up the side of it acting as a gauge. When it rains the level in the pipe slowly rises. When, in severe dry weather, we buy a tank load the gauge runs wild under the sudden influx of water. UP DOWN, Up Down, up down until it finally settles at the correct level.

PEB is like a very, very large water tank that is quite empty but currently being filled with random truck loads of water. In the last week the gauge hasn't had a chance to settle between the trucks but sometime soon it will. Between truck loads the rain will fall and the tank will steadily fill. As the water level rises the share price will steadily increase.

Like a water tank there is always the chance of a sudden leak - or a burst pipe when a cow stands on it - but so far the tank appears to be extremely well built and the cows are in a different paddock.

Where will this share price settle in the short term? My guess would be somewhere in the range it is now or a bit higher. But all the articles in the news may well act like mini-tankers that push it up a bit as more people want to buy in. It is the old story of supply and demand. The scarcer the product and the more who want them the more they will cost.

The long term view is that it is a the very, very large tank that may fill surprising quickly with steady rain.

$2 minimum by Christmas (or within weeks?) and who only knows what - but very large - in 5 years?

DISC: Long term holder and wish the cash flow situation was better to be able to buy more!

[GR8DAY]

......Ive traded PEB for the past year or so and done quite nicely thank-you. I cashed out the other day (yes too early by a day and that hurt to the extent of about $50k) No-one gets it right all the time and I choose not to dwell on that but to look forward to a VERY bright future with this company. Im now back in and more convinced than ever to listen more to my heart (and words) and hold onto this stock for the medium/longterm. $3 is quite doable in my opinion. I wud challenge anyone to show me a better run and better positioned listed company on the NZx. Everything they have accomplished up till now has simply been perfect business.....their plan, their timing, their management. Just wait till the word "DIVIDEND" starts getting banded around a bit more. ACCUMULATE.

[gv1]

I think price will go higher, profit takers might make it dip BUT guys there are investors from Taiwan looking to invest in co's like this. So keep watch of SP. M thinks SP by the end of year, drum roll at least $3.

[Danzx]

Hi all. I want to thank you all for your input here, I have been a reader of this forum for a while and have ditched my share broker as between everyone here it shows how average share brokers can be.

i have DIL & PEB because of this forum and have NZO, and BLT from "advice" and it is embarrassing for me to say what I brought those at.

keep up the good work and it's great keeping an eye on the stock pick contest!

[Minerbarejet]

We have a water tank with a one inch clear pipe up the side of it acting as a gauge. When it rains the level in the pipe slowly rises. When, in severe dry weather, we buy a tank load the gauge runs wild under the sudden influx of water. UP DOWN, Up Down, up down until it finally settles at the correct level.

PEB is like a very, very large water tank that is quite empty but currently being filled with random truck loads of water. In the last week the gauge hasn't had a chance to settle between the trucks but sometime soon it will. Between truck loads the rain will fall and the tank will steadily fill. As the water level rises the share price will steadily increase.

Like a water tank there is always the chance of a sudden leak - or a burst pipe when a cow stands on it - but so far the tank appears to be extremely well built and the cows are in a different paddock.

Where will this share price settle in the short term? My guess would be somewhere in the range it is now or a bit higher. But all the articles in the news may well act like mini-tankers that push it up a bit as more people want to buy in. It is the old story of supply and demand. The scarcer the product and the more who want them the more they will cost.

The long term view is that it is a the very, very large tank that may fill surprising quickly with steady rain.

$2 minimum by Christmas (or within weeks?) and who only knows what - but very large - in 5 years?

DISC: Long term holder and wish the cash flow situation was better to be able to buy more!
Excellent analogy Merc
Water tanks all round by the looks - more rain the better

[tosspot]

yip in the short term it really is just a guessing game but looks like buyers are piling up should be a good day today now that they've got the cap raising out the way. The nervous one (almost me) seem to have been filtered out yesterday

[Joshuatree]

Yes good one Merc. In my mind Ive replaced the tank with a Benmore size Dam :)

[GR8DAY]

Hi all. I want to thank you all for your input here, I have been a reader of this forum for a while and have ditched my share broker as between everyone here it shows how average share brokers can be.

i have DIL & PEB because of this forum and have NZO, and BLT from "advice" and it is embarrassing for me to say what I brought those at.

keep up the good work and it's great keeping an eye on the stock pick contest!



.......welcome to the forum DANZX........remember to believe only half of what you read here.....(except my comments of course.........they're always totally correct.....YEA RIGHT)........AND hang-on to those BLT's, they also have a very bright future in my opinion!!

[blakecb]

Whilst personally I think that the stock will trend back downwards to consolidate, I'm cognisant that it only takes one more deal to be signed before the stock takes off skyward again... and if that deal is with medicare/medicaid or another big insurer then we can probably expect big things.

Despite the risk of retrenchment I don't want to get caught on the sidelines when any positive announcements come out.

DISC: holding despite being tempted to take profit.

That is exactly how I feel. I'm tempted to take a profit because of the sums involved despite buying for the long-term hold on this one....but if they announce a medicare/medicaid deal, well, I can't really imagine how high it will go. Also, now it's a bit difficult to do with the cap raising, as the market has priced that in and so you miss what is in effect free money.

[Merc]

Mind you, the gauge runs even wilder when we turn on the pump to fill the top tanks that gravity feed to the house :)

[RTM]

Hmmmmmm....just had first tank repaired, so both tanks nearly empty. Should I buy some or not ? Forecast looks OK for tomorrow for some accumulation ? Location: Kerikeri.

[Balance]

Hi all. I want to thank you all for your input here, I have been a reader of this forum for a while and have ditched my share broker as between everyone here it shows how average share brokers can be.

i have DIL & PEB because of this forum and have NZO, and BLT from "advice" and it is embarrassing for me to say what I brought those at.

keep up the good work and it's great keeping an eye on the stock pick contest!

Hancocks and Sparky The Clown - Analysts of the Decade. They put the analysts employed by the brokers (who are paid extremely well to write rubbish) to shame.

[GR8DAY]

I agree, in the short term it's been difficult to pick, however there has been a pretty clear trend that I've been coat tailing and I see no reason why that changes today!


..agree Tumeric, I was watching very closely yesterday afternoon and there appeared to be very solid support still after the small pull-back. I think we will find this now with any dips along the way. The real smart money knows where this is heading.

[apac]

The problem for me is i sit there watching my profits get less and less and its not easy, just want to take the money and buy in when/if it goes lower. Its a lot of money for someone who doesnt have much.

i made just under half a years salary in two days. And watching or knowing its dropping and im losing money is just to hard, when will it stop i wonder, will i loose it all.

I really want to hold this stock long term but the more i think about it the more i wonder if i should just take my profit, or else it could vanish.

Take your capital back, and some profit if you want, and leave the rest. It's money you didn't have two days ago, so you won't care if you lose it, but you will kick yourself if you sold all and the SP skyrockets.

That's what I did, sold first thing yesterday, got my capital back, and when it got to $1.70, I was happy. When it dropped to $1.20, meh, I didn't feel a thing.

[GR8DAY]

..........ACCUMULATE WITH CARE!............steady as she goes hopefully from here on.

[Danzx]

.......welcome to the forum DANZX........remember to believe only half of what you read here.....(except my comments of course.........they're always totally correct.....YEA RIGHT)........AND hang-on to those BLT's, they also have a very bright future in my opinion!!

Very good yes I understand with e.g XRO & PEB we are on a hot streak.

BLT 4c it's gonna be a long patient road

[BLONDEDIDDY]

US investors will have chance today to react at news from yesterday, how do you think this will affect the SP?

[pierre]

Opening looks like 149 right now.

[Balance]

US investors will have chance today to react at news from yesterday, how do you think this will affect the SP?

They were already buying yesterday with their ears pinned back.

They have experiences with how biotech and biomed companies take off when the companies are successful with products.

Buying at $1.70 is nothing when the sp is heading to $5.00 on one successful product!

[BLONDEDIDDY]

They were already buying yesterday with their ears pinned back.

They have experiences with how biotech and biomed companies take off when the companies are successful with products.

Buying at $1.70 is nothing when the sp is heading to $5.00 on one successful product!

Thanks Balance :)

[GR8DAY]

.......yep US investors will only just becoming aware of this story now. They will be well understand the market potential of an "approved" product like Cx Badder and price it accordingly.

[goldfish]

Thanks for your advice people...appreciate your input, ;)

[dagoldtoof]

As someone who watched the 1980s sharemarket fraud, enjoying this , think it also comes down to gut feeling, bought CHA so so cheap because after drinking the Au spew in OZ it was a winner, also FPH their sleep products feedback was excellent , EBO people now love their pets, PEB after chats to males their reaction to costings $500.00 a test...cheap, compared to alternative.. always read up this forum here before I purchase....Best wishes for all on PEB today...

[Balance]

Here comes the real money!! 145,000 @ 1.70

$1.60 opening price?

[zymwh]

Yes first trade at 160c

[goldfish]

there will be plenty of opportunities to buy going forward.. they have only just started the panic buying is starting..

If thats the case then wouldnt it be better to sell and buy back in when it settles?

[goldfish]

Hmmm...gawd i suck at investing, give me trading its much easier on the nerves, get in do the business and get out...reminds me of something else ;)

[PlatnuM195]

I don't want to make anyone upset here, but aren't good biotech companies often the target of takeovers?

[JohnnyTheHorse]

Regarding the capital raising, I wouldn't view it that they are all of a sudden wanting to fast track things. They have simply realised that they don't have enough money to keep operating until they become profitable. They were always cutting it fine with the amount they had and it looks like the US push is costing them slightly more than expected. The have achieved an incredible amount with the money they have had however. And those who think it is essentially 'free shares', they are not.

I sold off all of my holding in PEB throughout the morning yesterday for several reasons:
1) The share price has gone too far, too soon. Yes, this company looks set to be very big, but that doesn't mean that valuations can be thrown out the window.
2) Irrational exuberance - you only have to read this forum to realise that this has set in. Statements that it has completely de-risked and is a sure thing ring warning bells. Reminds me of DIL before the SP collapse.
3) PEB was by far my largest holding. The amount I have made in the last week has been quite unbelievable for me. This can cloud judgement, so I find the best way to make rational decisions is to take all my money off the table then reassess the situation from there. I can easily buy back in, but I can't sell at a high price if I continued holding due to emotion.

From my amateur technical perspective, the very large Doji Star yesterday rings alarm bells for caution. At a guess I would say that the opening gap will close and it will finish the day at around $1.40 or so. If it doesn't set a higher high then that is also a sign that it is losing steam (for the short term).

I love this company, but this is still a very risky investment. I am looking to buy back in at around the $1 mark. If it continues going up, I really don't mind as I don't want to be too greedy and I'd be genuinely happy to see the people that have been holding for years to be truly rewarded (Hancocks, STC). I will be able to be more contrarian now to add some balance - but I will keep you fully disclosed if I begin holding PEB again so that you can take my postings in context.

[Toasty]

I don't want to make anyone upset here, but aren't good biotech companies often the target of takeovers?

True, but I would have thought the worst case scenario here is that we lose the potential but have still made substantial gains on initial investment. It would be a shame for them to disappear at $2 or something but I would still have quadrupled my money. Not a bad way to lose?

[robbo24]

What do we have here? A little bit of a retracement?

[RTM]

Thanks JTH, informative post. I'll get back to work then.
DISC: Missed the boat.

[robbo24]

of course we have a retracement .........

Oh, of course!

[zymwh]

A few drops of water leaked from the tank bu who cares its going to rain lol

[goldfish]

I got my initial investment back, i think its the best thing to do, still leaves me lots of shares for the long term and will help to ease the nerves...guess ill have to wait a bit before ordering my new boat.

[MAC]

Regarding the capital raising, I wouldn't view it that they are all of a sudden wanting to fast track things. They have simply realised that they don't have enough money to keep operating until they become profitable. They were always cutting it fine with the amount they had and it looks like the US push is costing them slightly more than expected. The have achieved an incredible amount with the money they have had however. And those who think it is essentially 'free shares', they are not.

That's an interesting interpretation, I’d considering that aspect also over the last 24 hours and resolved a different outcome.

PEB’s previous strategy was to grow organically using sales revenue to incrementally hire sales staff over years until all nineteen sales districts were active.

From David Darling in the NZ Herald yesterday: Chief executive David Darling told BusinessDesk the company aims to beef up its US sales team from four to 20 as it targets large commercial players, where it sees greater scale in rolling out its CXbladder on its mission to reach annual revenue of $100 million within the next five years. "It's a very doable target, and could come sooner"

PEB are clearly gaining traction with the US health organisations faster than anticipated and rather than potentially loose this momentum whilst awaiting cashflow, they have elected to ‘step it up a notch’, fund the sales staff through a capital raising and capture as many organisations as possible.

Effectively the insurers are coming on board faster and PEB could utilise a lot more sales staff now in taking up that potential more quickly.

Strike whilst the iron is hot, make hay whilst the sun shines.

I’m not tempted to sell one bit and will be holding for the long term, superior product, good management, fantastic growth strategies, best in breed, more products in the pipeline.

And, it’s just the beginning.

DISC: Hold, also taking up the 2:15 entitlement

[whatsup]

That's an interesting interpretation, I’d considering that aspect also over the last 24 hours and resolved a different outcome.

PEB’s previous strategy was to grow organically using sales revenue to incrementally hire sales staff over years until all nineteen sales districts were active.

From David Darling in the NZ Herald yesterday: Chief executive David Darling told BusinessDesk the company aims to beef up its US sales team from four to 20 as it targets large commercial players, where it sees greater scale in rolling out its CXbladder on its mission to reach annual revenue of $100 million within the next five years. "It's a very doable target, and could come sooner"

PEB are clearly gaining traction with the US health organisations faster than anticipated and rather than potentially loose this momentum whilst awaiting cashflow, they have elected to ‘step it up a notch’, fund the sales staff through a capital raising and capture as many organisations as possible.

Effectively the insurers are coming on board faster and PEB could utilise a lot more sales staff now in taking up that potential more quickly.

Strike whilst the iron is hot, make hay whilst the sun shines.

I’m not tempted to sell one bit and will be holding for the long term, superior product, good management, fantastic growth strategies, best in breed, more products in the pipeline.

And, it’s just the beginning.

DISC: Hold, also taking up the 2:15 entitlement

RUBBISH, As Grahan Hart said "when the ducks are quacking- feed them " !

[pierre]

Yup I agree, I see what PEB are doing as analogous to what XRO are doing. Pushing harder and faster in the US because it is obvious the potential is there and probability of success is high!

I agree. There's a whole lot more to come from PEB - and sooner rather than later.

I've got a truckload invested in PEB, I've tied it down tight and I'm hanging on for the ride. I'll be taking up the 2:15 offer and the opportunity to double up as well.

I expect there will be dips in the road along the way but they'll be few and far between and the highs will continue to get higher.

XRO Mk II in my view.

[Lorne Ranger]

I agree. There's a whole lot more to come from PEB - and sooner rather than later.

I've got a truckload invested in PEB, I've tied it down tight and I'm hanging on for the ride. I'll be taking up the 2:15 offer and the opportunity to double up as well.

I expect there will be dips in the road along the way but they'll be few and far between and the highs will continue to get higher.

XRO Mk II in my view.

Ditto here. I just think, if your philosophy is investment in PEB rather than trading, it's best not to look too closely and too often over the coming minutes, days and months, as it is likely to stay volatile. Like a freshly formed volcano! Great underlying potential recognised, (not euphoric as some suggest), but fast rises, share issue, soon released sales figures likely to be only realistic, it's all going to keep the traders occupied for a bit i think.

Disc: Holding

[goldfish]

Good to see how bullish a lot of you seasoned pros are...
Why would anyone want to pay for advice from a broker when they can just come here for excellant information.

[Toasty]

Good to see how bullish a lot of you seasoned pros are...
Why would anyone want to pay for advice from a broker when they can just come here for excellant information.

I am assuming that you are being sarcastic but I have to say that I have learnt far more here than from any meeting with a share broking professional or financial advisor. I know the DYOR rule and I try to absorb both sides of any discussion. So far my strike rate has gone up by several orders of magnitude after digesting information on Sharetrader.

I only wish I had more to contribute.

[Minerbarejet]

Anyone like a small wager we get another signup announcement before the Nov sales data release- couple of bottles of tui or bottle of red perhaps:)

[MAC]

I agree. There's a whole lot more to come from PEB - and sooner rather than later.

I've got a truckload invested in PEB, I've tied it down tight and I'm hanging on for the ride. I'll be taking up the 2:15 offer and the opportunity to double up as well.

I expect there will be dips in the road along the way but they'll be few and far between and the highs will continue to get higher.

XRO Mk II in my view.

What I like about the PEB position over XRO when at this stage, is the barriers to entry in this market. There are a lot of good accounting software companies out there with similar ambitions to XRO.

The partial competition to PEB, Alere with their product NMP22, have been around for 10 years. It has taken the market that long to come up with a superior more competitive product, that being PEB’s cxbladder. The hurdles to overcome in gaining regulatory approvals to sell these types of products is huge and takes years. It all just bodes well for forward security of position in the market place.

[pierre]

I haven't taken advice from a Broker for 20 years.

My neighbour, who does, has never heard of PEB and sold XRO when they reached $2.40.

His portfolio is in the red, mine is most definitely not.


'Nuff said.

[Xerof]

RUBBISH, As Grahan Hart said "when the ducks are quacking- feed them " !

as much as I agree with what GH said, and indeed they are feeding the ducks, I think this has been on the cards for a while. I tend to go with MAC - well prepared to feed at the right time, can see the pace is far quicker than even they imagined, so push the button.

Note, this CR looks likely to be the last one you'll see, as this keeps them going for two years, when they expect to be rolling in it.


I am a very happy duck

[CJ]

Yup I agree, I see what PEB are doing as analogous to what XRO are doing. Pushing harder and faster in the US because it is obvious the potential is there and probability of success is high!Agree - but I think it has come about as they saw their product selling better than expected. What they thought would be a slow grind, was actually easier so they need the more staff.

[goldfish]

I am assuming that you are being sarcastic but I have to say that I have learnt far more here than from any meeting with a share broking professional or financial advisor. I know the DYOR rule and I try to absorb both sides of any discussion. So far my strike rate has gone up by several orders of magnitude after digesting information on Sharetrader.

I only wish I had more to contribute.

Why would that be sarcasm? Its meant as a compliment to knowledgable posters. I have followed this thread for ages waiting to get in, i wouldnt have without the input from posters on here.
Then i hear that craigs etc have been saying dont bother with peb etc before it took off.
That shows me who has the best advice.
No sarcasm intended, just gratitude and compliments to posters.

[Toasty]

Why would that be sarcasm? Its meant as a compliment to knowledgable posters. I have followed this thread for ages waiting to get in, i wouldnt have without the input from posters on here.
Then i hear that craigs etc have been saying dont bother with peb etc before it took off.
That shows me who has the best advice.
No sarcasm intended, just gratitude and compliments to posters.

Sorry, I probably read it wrong. I agree.

[asxpunter]

I'm new to this stock, joining in on the hype, and am now a holder.
Whats everyones thoughts on management and their decision making ?
They've had a great win, but can we get to profitability and maximise the potential ?

[karen1]

I'm new to this stock, joining in on the hype, and am now a holder.
Whats everyones thoughts on management and their decision making ?
They've had a great win, but can we get to profitability and maximise the potential ?

Welcome asxpunter, both to ST and PEB. Please, can I suggest now you are in PEB, you might go back and read the entire thread, from page 1? All your questions, and more, will be fully answered if you do, and you might realise that the last 30 odd pages are actually far from hype.

And keep asking questions, there are some very knowledgeable posters on ST, including this thread!

[clip]

I'm new to this stock, joining in on the hype, and am now a holder.
Whats everyones thoughts on management and their decision making ?
They've had a great win, but can we get to profitability and maximise the potential ?

I may be wrong but I think that has more than sufficiently been covered over the last 50 pages, and the whole thread. (I haven't contributed a thing apart from the odd un-informed opinion, but have read the whole thing :P )

[Minerbarejet]

I'm new to this stock, joining in on the hype, and am now a holder.
Whats everyones thoughts on management and their decision making ?
They've had a great win, but can we get to profitability and maximise the potential ?Good on you mate,
Suggest you perhaps read the last 30 or so pages of this thread to get a good feel for whats been going on.
Cheers

[Captain Dan]

Anyone like a small wager we get another signup announcement before the Nov sales data release- couple of bottles of tui or bottle of red perhaps:)

Miner, I'm willing to take you up on that. A bottle of red says we get an annoucement.

[Minerbarejet]

Miner, I'm willing to take you up on that. A bottle of red says we get an annoucement.
Err Im positive on this, do you want to flip for it, ---- call. Heads or tails:)

[Anonymous]

Good on you mate,
Suggest you perhaps read the last 30 or so pages of this thread to get a good feel for whats been going on.
Cheers

I think you may need to go back further than that. The last 30 pages are pretty much everyone congratulating themselves...:eek2:

A big big thanks to especially Hancocks and others for sharing their work on this. Is greatly appreciated.

Cheers

[whatsup]

$1.50 seems fair value at present until the next sales acceptance/penetration ann is made then we are off to the races again when PEB will again be rerated to something around $2.10-$2.25.
IMHO the ann (incl the Cap Raising ) this last week have been expected at some stage and are company makers, well done to the PEB team,congratulations all round.

[asxpunter]

Thanks for your comments - had a quick read then checked out the website. Pretty average - now they're starting to get some attention they need to improve their marketing to the world

[Xerof]

You might be only partially filled

[Bilbo]

I am assuming that you are being sarcastic but I have to say that I have learnt far more here than from any meeting with a share broking professional or financial advisor. I know the DYOR rule and I try to absorb both sides of any discussion. So far my strike rate has gone up by several orders of magnitude after digesting information on Sharetrader.

I only wish I had more to contribute.

Toasty and others commenting on "advice". Do you follow posts from particular contributors on sharetrader, and if so who do you recommend others follow? I read the forums on companies I invest in or am researching, but how do you use sharetrader to find "new" investment opportunities?

[TimmyTP]

i use asb........
Probably you will be better off to pop your qn over here edm: http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/forumdisplay.php?22-The-Newbies-Corner-The-place-for-the-Newbies-to-ShareTrader

[edm]

Hi TimmTP,

Will do! Thanks


Probably you will be better off to pop your qn over here edm: http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/forumdisplay.php?22-The-Newbies-Corner-The-place-for-the-Newbies-to-ShareTrader

[Toasty]

@ Bilbo. Sorry forgot to add quote.

I find that on each companys thread there are people who argue for and against and provide very detailed arguments for their positions. Hancocks, Sparky and a couple of others have contributed huge amounts on this particular thread and once you read a number of their posts you get a feel for their particular viewpoint.

I try not to get too invested in opinions that mirror my feelings and force myself to read arguments that don't support what I want to do to make sure I have a full picture. I also follow all links provided.

I have no time for the inevitable "its a bublle" or "theres gonna be tears" as these are generally the sort of people who inhabit the dark corners of the world jealously coveting others success or ability to take action.

[whatsup]

$1.50 seems fair value at present until the next sales acceptance/penetration ann is made then we are off to the races again when PEB will again be rerated to something around $2.10-$2.25.
IMHO the ann (incl the Cap Raising ) this last week have been expected at some stage and are company makers, well done to the PEB team,congratulations all round.

IMHO PEB will be good buying up until the Ex date for the Cap Raising.

[blobbles]

She's been a good few days for us holders, I expect some backwards movement over the next few days though, their market cap is looking a bit large now considering confirmed sales are so low. I expect back to $1-1.20 over the next few days considering how fast we went up! If it does go down, don't freak out long term holders!

[Toasty]

just remember IBM got heavily sold off on earnings fundamental last week, steep chart downward.... by the professional traders in the states...

however i only want this chart to head UP!

Yes I know. I have quite a bit of IBM but since it was bought from $80 US upwards I am not too worried. Are you saying that traders on this forum could do the same sort of damage?

[Bilbo]

@ Bilbo. Sorry forgot to add quote.

I find that on each companys thread there are people who argue for and against and provide very detailed arguments for their positions. Hancocks, Sparky and a couple of others have contributed huge amounts on this particular thread and once you read a number of their posts you get a feel for their particular viewpoint.

I try not to get too invested in opinions that mirror my feelings and force myself to read arguments that don't support what I want to do to make sure I have a full picture. I also follow all links provided.

I have no time for the inevitable "its a bublle" or "theres gonna be tears" as these are generally the sort of people who inhabit the dark corners of the world jealously coveting others success or ability to take action.

Thanks Toasty. I have spend the last couple of days reading the PEB history, and definitely some great information on here. What other companies do you think I should be looking at? I am a holder of XRO, PEB, SLI, DIL, WYN, SNK and learnt a lot from those forums (especially SNK - good to learn from mistakes!) What other companies should I have on my watchlist? GeoOP are one for sure, have followed BLT and Syft for ages but resisted getting in.

[Captain Dan]

Err Im positive on this, do you want to flip for it, ---- call. Heads or tails:)

They say tails never fails ;)

[BLONDEDIDDY]

Where do we think the SP will finish today?

[Toasty]

Thanks Toasty. I have spend the last couple of days reading the PEB history, and definitely some great information on here. What other companies do you think I should be looking at? I am a holder of XRO, PEB, SLI, DIL, WYN, SNK and learnt a lot from those forums (especially SNK - good to learn from mistakes!) What other companies should I have on my watchlist? GeoOP are one for sure, have followed BLT and Syft for ages but resisted getting in.

You definitely have some of the higher(ist?) risk propositions there. All good stuff but you might want to balance it out with some safer storage units perhaps. Some of the retirement village owners? SUM, RYM MET. I've got osme VHP which periodically send a few bucks to the bank.

Probably not the thread for this sort of advice.

GO PEB!!!

[clip]

Ahh :) :) :)

158 up up up


bummer.. well not really, that's a good thing!! but just as i was waiting for money to clear into my asb account to pick up some more hahaha

[Toasty]

you are doing very well!!!!!

we have no IBM only NZ stocks...

your time sheet database must be interesting toasty.... :)

I'm certainly not the poster boy for any particular sort of investing strategy. So far I have done well despite my best efforts to sabotage it. I have only reasonably recently tried to put some rules around what I am buying and why.

[clip]

Yeah.. I don't have enough capital to really make it worth while, just hoping to top up a little bit. I bought in at 60 and 72 so I don't want to sell those and re-buy. I think my eyes are getting a bit bigger than my wallet though, really. Must remain calm and not get greedy haha. Will be taking all I can from the re-announcement rights though :)

[clip]

I am not planning on ever selling those before $5 haha. In a few years it will be a nice addition to kiwisaver and savings for a house deposit. I am still young and only just starting to consciously think about investments etc. can't give enough thanks to everyone here for the time and research they have put in which I have been able to capitalize on :)

[BLONDEDIDDY]

I am not planning on ever selling those before $5 haha. In a few years it will be a nice addition to kiwisaver and savings for a house deposit. I am still young and only just starting to consciously think about investments etc. can't give enough thanks to everyone here for the time and research they have put in which I have been able to capitalize on :)

Agreed. Valuable information in here.

[Minerbarejet]

They say tails never fails ;)Sorry - it was heads:)

[Bilbo]

You definitely have some of the higher(ist?) risk propositions there. All good stuff but you might want to balance it out with some safer storage units perhaps. Some of the retirement village owners? SUM, RYM MET. I've got osme VHP which periodically send a few bucks to the bank.

Probably not the thread for this sort of advice.

GO PEB!!!

Sure thing toasty. Yes I definitely balance that lot out with heaps of global index funds, fixed interest etc. I just have a portion dedicated to stocks with huge potential and try to minimize the risk by good research and knowing the company, and enjoy researching start-ups much more than I enjoy researching established players.

I have a small amount to PEB and had been thinking about getting more before this week, but not sure when to jump in again now. Found myself in the same boat with XRO many times over the years and bought at what I thought were crazy prices (e.g $4.75 on a spike that dropped back to $4 very quickly). I guess at the end of the day if I believe in the PEB story I should not try to time the market, but my gut tells me there may be a pull back. I'm not sure how to digest the pricing of the rights issue at 55c and whether that sets a stake in the ground for the SP over the next month? Why didn't they wait 10 days before announcing that rights issue and use a much higher trading history to raise the money at a higher price? Or does that not matter?

[JimHickey]

I'm not sure how to digest the pricing of the rights issue at 55c and whether that sets a stake in the ground for the SP over the next month? Why didn't they wait 10 days before announcing that rights issue and use a much higher trading history to raise the money at a higher price? Or does that not matter?It doesnt matter. There's no need for them to raise more capital than they need just to leave it in the bank. Not to mention the negative signal that sends

[blobbles]

It doesnt matter. There's no need for them to raise more capital than they need just to leave it in the bank. Not to mention the negative signal that sends

Jims got it, this also would have been in the pipeline for a while, it would not have been better for them to change it all at the last second.

[Whipmoney]

Today I implemented my strategy regarding my rights allocation; I sold enough shares to purchase the balance of the rights to achieve my target total.

This is because I want to support the Capital Raising, but didn’t want to invest any more loot. This is my 8th capital raising with PEB via rights issues and SPP’s over the years, and I didn’t want to just keep buying, I have enough shares and will still have just a few for sale in December …………………. Happiness filled.

How did the share-price react in the last rights issue?

I note that after announcement the shareprice dropped to roughly 13/15ths of its pre-trading halt price of $1.45 which would suggest the dilution was priced in yesterday..?

[False Profit]

It's heading North again. Might break the $160 before home time.

[warthog]

I haven't taken advice from a Broker for 20 years.

My neighbour, who does, has never heard of PEB and sold XRO when they reached $2.40.

His portfolio is in the red, mine is most definitely not.

'Nuff said.

BUT, Fairfax say:
http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/money/9313216/Choosing-the-right-sharebroker

"Brokers firms' connections can also help them offer up potentially juicy new investment opportunities."

and

"For most people, a full-service broker is almost certainly worth paying for. As Edmond says: "You only need to save one disaster, and you're going to pay for that advice for a long time.""

You mean that you can't trust what you read in the media?????

Really, with friends like Goldman Sachs, who needs enemies?

[Toasty]

BUT, Fairfax say:
http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/money/9313216/Choosing-the-right-sharebroker

"Brokers firms' connections can also help them offer up potentially juicy new investment opportunities."

and

"For most people, a full-service broker is almost certainly worth paying for. As Edmond says: "You only need to save one disaster, and you're going to pay for that advice for a long time.""

You mean that you can't trust what you read in the media?????

Really, with friends like Goldman Sachs, who needs enemies?

I wonder what happened to the broker who tipped me to buy Dominion Finance (I didn't) and the one who recommended Rakon (Didn't)

I always ask brokers and advisors what they personally own and what their net worth is. You would be amazed at how many are recovering from various financial disasters or not taking their own advice....or both

[craic]

There are some who do not understand the rights issue or its implications. I have been thereseveral times in the past and its quite simple. You are being offered fully paid up shares in the company at 55cents per share and in this circumstance, you should jump at the chance. Forget about the arithmetic - its meaningless in the current situation. The head price might drop a cent or two but it certainly won't depreciate the share in any significant way. The time to be wary of rights issues is when a company is in trouble and trying to buy its way out. Strathmore did this years ago with a rights issue @05cps and five rights for every share held. I must have been the only mug in NZ who bought them on the grounds that if the shares remained at 8cps or more I would mak a profit. I got out of the lot at over 20cps and never turned my head once to look back. This particular one is being driven by a mixture of emotion and greed but I would expect it to settle at around 150cps when the dust settles.

[Lorne Ranger]

I know this is wrong on some level, but I love seeing so much green on my daily portfolio update when the overall NZX is having a lousy day.

Its the investment version of schadenfreude I know, but hey, more good times than bad all around, so no harm done.

[clip]

It's a good feeling indeed. I have a fat green 56% over portfolio. Only mrp is keeping me down heh

[Balance]

Solid institutional buying, and plenty of small trades selling to the institutions.

Who have the real bucks?

[winner69]

Balance is an institution on Sharetrader - does that answer your question turmeric

[gv1]

I would like to buy some more, selling all my other stocks. SP has gone up.

[hling88]

Just a sidetrack for those want to make some quick money: BRL.

[Wolf]

I would like to buy some more, selling all my other stocks. SP has gone up.
Don't buy just because the share price is going up DYOR,
Just remember all the brokerage fee's your going to incur for selling your other stocks and that they probably aren't at your target price.
It's also a very risky game putting all your money in one stock.

[Captain Dan]

Sorry - it was heads:)

Just my luck. Oh well, the SP jump of the back of any annoucement should be enough to cover me for a bottle of one of Hawkes Bay's finest.

[gv1]

Don't buy just because the share price is going up DYOR,
Just remember all the brokerage fee's your going to incur for selling your other stocks and that they probably aren't at your target price.
It's also a very risky game putting all your money in one stock.

Thanks Wolf, I wanted to buy in dip but now has gone up today. I was sceptical of this stock, done some research, thats when I invested. This stock has lots of upside now than downside.

[pierre]

Closed today up 21 points or 15.3% at 158. Still expecting some volatility over coming days, but when they announce the signing of the next Health group and release news of initial sales then something starting with a 2 seems a likely proposition.

I'm going to take a hit on my MRP and use the funds to take up the 2:15 offer plus the double up opportunity.

Sure feels like plenty of blue sky in this one.

[JimHickey]

There are some who do not understand the rights issue or its implications. I have been thereseveral times in the past and its quite simple. You are being offered fully paid up shares in the company at 55cents per share and in this circumstance, you should jump at the chance. Forget about the arithmetic - its meaningless in the current situation. The head price might drop a cent or two but it certainly won't depreciate the share in any significant way. The time to be wary of rights issues is when a company is in trouble and trying to buy its way out. Strathmore did this years ago with a rights issue @05cps and five rights for every share held. I must have been the only mug in NZ who bought them on the grounds that if the shares remained at 8cps or more I would mak a profit. I got out of the lot at over 20cps and never turned my head once to look back. This particular one is being driven by a mixture of emotion and greed but I would expect it to settle at around 150cps when the dust settles.
This is just blatantly wrong.

[Wolf]

I'm thinking we might make a new high tomorrow then drop of due to profit taking? Everyday it rise's reasonably in the morning.

[gv1]

Don't buy just because the share price is going up DYOR,
Just remember all the brokerage fee's your going to incur for selling your other stocks and that they probably aren't at your target price.
It's also a very risky game putting all your money in one stock.
Hi wolf, have you been investing for long and what are you thoughts on this stock.

[Lorne Ranger]

Closed today up 21 points or 15.3% at 158. Still expecting some volatility over coming days, but when they announce the signing of the next Health group and release news of initial sales then something starting with a 2 seems a likely proposition.

I'm going to take a hit on my MRP and use the funds to take up the 2:15 offer plus the double up opportunity.

Sure feels like plenty of blue sky in this one.

Another quite high volume day really: 3.5m shares. Given that many will be cashing in on a successful week of doubling or tripling thier investment, this seems to be setting a solid foundation at around 1.50 of new investors. Given the very encouraging medium and long term prospects for the company, I think this all goes to reduce the chance of a dramatic backfall in price, unless bad news arrives which is unlikely. I topped up yesterday and thought to sell those today, but now I'm not so sure I would be able to get back in at a much improved (lower) price. Anyway.... sure im just typing what many have been thinking today, assuming that others are still on thier new boats celebrating! Hope theyre wearing life-jackets, would be a stupid time to go under now!

[Wolf]

Couple years only really started getting serious this year. Seem's to be a lot of mixed opinions on this stock at the moment. I'm going to have another real good look into PEB in the weekend as i still haven't crunched numbers on recent sign ups. I see this stock being $2 and above by early November if not earlier and the skys the limit from there. But i feel there is a nice drop coming at some point which i will top up heavily on! Cx Bladder is only the first of many cancer detection technology PEB has in store.

Tomorrow i'm expecting another rise as there seems to be a rush every morning, towards the previous high. If we breach it i feel there could be another huge rise otherwise i think it will settle down swinging between 1.3-1.7 because of profit taking and ease of mind for the weekend. Just my thoughts! Probably better of asking someone more experienced.

[zymwh]

Wow I see 250k at 158cent at 17:05

[Minerbarejet]

Just my luck. Oh well, the SP jump of the back of any annoucement should be enough to cover me for a bottle of one of Hawkes Bay's finest.
Never mind mate, the share price rise between now and then should cover it for me as well if there is no announcement.
Cheers
And now for a little light hearted relief.
Barely able tear myself away from the screen during today's activities I had cause to venture down town for vital supplies. About 50 yards down the road I was confronted with a large sign that screamed "FREE SECTION".
Interesting I thought and proceeded to investigate the smaller writing at the top which much to my amusement said ,I quote "For sale : three sheep that you can see on this section- $33,000.00 each"

[Copper]

Never mind mate, the share price rise between now and then should cover it for me as well if there is no announcement.
Cheers
And now for a little light hearted relief.
Barely able tear myself away from the screen during today's activities I had cause to venture down town for vital supplies. About 50 yards down the road I was confronted with a large sign that screamed "FREE SECTION".
Interesting I thought and proceeded to investigate the smaller writing at the top which much to my amusement said ,I quote "For sale : three sheep that you can see on this section- $33,000.00 each"

that's great really worth a giggle.... I think that the assumptions today about the share price border on dart throwing.The main thing is that the turnover is high and the price did not plummet.There are a few solid buyers taking up the slack.If someone can find out who is taking all the so called profit taking from posters we may see an interesting picture developing.To get acceptance of anything in the US is a milestone.I personally feel that none of us have the foggiest clue what will eventuate in the days ahead.

Disc...I hold shares .

[blobbles]

Personally I think with the liquidity of the stock and the number of people who have made a LOT of money on it in the past few days, we are likely to see a down trend down to about $1 or just over. Will be absolutely happy to be wrong though! Then again I might be happy to be right so I can top up too... I aren't sure what makes me happy anymore, dang!

[Minerbarejet]

Personally I think with the liquidity of the stock and the number of people who have made a LOT of money on it in the past few days, we are likely to see a down trend down to about $1 or just over. Will be absolutely happy to be wrong though! Then again I might be happy to be right so I can top up too... I aren't sure what makes me happy anymore, dang!
You are in two minds blobbles, relax, make a nice cup of tea or something stronger, there is a long way to go yet!

[geo]

Thanks Bobbles for your reply keep up the good work.

[Dentie]

Never mind mate, the share price rise between now and then should cover it for me as well if there is no announcement.
Cheers
And now for a little light hearted relief.
Barely able tear myself away from the screen during today's activities I had cause to venture down town for vital supplies. About 50 yards down the road I was confronted with a large sign that screamed "FREE SECTION".
Interesting I thought and proceeded to investigate the smaller writing at the top which much to my amusement said ,I quote "For sale : three sheep that you can see on this section- $33,000.00 each"


I bet the sign changes once the sheep are on the back of that stinky truck.....

[geo]

Hear Hear why would you pay a broker $60 a trade when you can do it for $30 online.

[geo]

I will be taking up 2:15 offer also and the opportunity to double up.
I have posted that I will never sell,but to save any debt I will sell some say at $1.58 to buy at 55c, cant think of a cheaper way of increasing my holding. After all David Darling did it.

[Xerof]

I've been thinking......(and I exclude Mr Magoo from this conversation, as he has explained and executed his personal strategy)

Why would you sell some shares to be able to pay for your rights take-up? You will reduce the number of rights you get, and if the head shares keep rallying, you have shortchanged yourself. Of course, if the shares fall from here, then you are ahead, but by waiting until after EX date, you are completely 'hedged' and will be able to monitor any 'arbitrage' during the trading window

As Balance has alluded, there is strong accumulation taking place at the moment, so possible we go higher still during this next couple of weeks, and always the 'risk' of another major US customer announcement hitting the wires.

The easiest path under a Renouncable Rights issue is to simply sell them if you don't want to increase your holdings, or some to pay for a balance. At todays closing price Theoretical Rights value is $1.03. You get intrinsic value of your rights, and the buyer of them also pays the company their 55 cents. One step instead of two.

if you do nothing, your rights go in the book build, and you get the difference between auction price discovery, and 55 cents.

Roll up roll up, takes yer pick

[Copper]

I will be taking up 2:15 offer also and the opportunity to double up.
I have posted that I will never sell,but to save any debt I will sell some say at $1.58 to buy at 55c, cant think of a cheaper way of increasing my holding. After all David Darling did it.

You will have to sell at 1.58 ex issue otherwise you will just be playing wih figures.

[gv1]

Couple years only really started getting serious this year. Seem's to be a lot of mixed opinions on this stock at the moment. I'm going to have another real good look into PEB in the weekend as i still haven't crunched numbers on recent sign ups. I see this stock being $2 and above by early November if not earlier and the skys the limit from there. But i feel there is a nice drop coming at some point which i will top up heavily on! Cx Bladder is only the first of many cancer detection technology PEB has in store.

Tomorrow i'm expecting another rise as there seems to be a rush every morning, towards the previous high. If we breach it i feel there could be another huge rise otherwise i think it will settle down swinging between 1.3-1.7 because of profit taking and ease of mind for the weekend. Just my thoughts! Probably better of asking someone more experienced.

Thanks buddy.

[Minerbarejet]

I will be taking up 2:15 offer also and the opportunity to double up.
I have posted that I will never sell,but to save any debt I will sell some say at $1.58 to buy at 55c, cant think of a cheaper way of increasing my holding. After all David Darling did it.
You are onto it mate - currently assessing it myself

[Minerbarejet]

If you do not want to raise cash to purchase your rights, and you do not want to wait for the book build sale, which gives you an unknown cash value. Then this is my methodology, have used 50,000 in this example.

Hold: 50,000 Shares with 6,667 rights = purchase cost @ 55cents = $3,666.85

Sell: 2,000 @ $1.58 = $3,160.00

Balance: 48,000 shares with 6,400 rights = purchase cost $3,160 (sale) $360.00 (cash)

New total: 54,400 for the outlay of $360 + sale proceeds + brokerage.

This way you do not sell more than you need to because you are only assured your rights at 55, anything else purchased will be at the book build price. (I believe). Check your own figures indicative only.So where would the book build price be - is it not the same as the rights price? And why not. Can see all sorts of possibilities ranging from selling everything to doing nothing. Is it just take your virtual bonus and run with it ,buy more with the book build or ignore the whole lot and get diluted.
Amazing concepts coming to life here, well for me anyway.
Roll on PEB
Cheers
Minerbarejet

[p2r]

A little kiwisaver fund superlife Gemino had 26% PEB 2 million odd shares 31/8/13. Would be a nice week for people with $30 000 kiwisaver in there. Well worth the $10 fees and no tax either.

[Xerof]

So where would the book build price be - is it not the same as the rights price? And why not. Can see all sorts of possibilities ranging from selling everything to doing nothing. Is it just take your virtual bonus and run with it ,buy more with the book build or ignore the whole lot and get diluted.
Amazing concepts coming to life here, well for me anyway.
Roll on PEB
Cheers
Minerbarejet

yeah, hadn't thought through that final option of doing nothing. You would think the return from the book build would be close to the actual market price on the day of the book build, minus 55c, assuming hot demand from the high rollers but who really knows until the day?

[Danzx]

I haven't taken advice from a Broker for 20 years.

My neighbour, who does, has never heard of PEB and sold XRO when they reached $2.40.

His portfolio is in the red, mine is most definitely not.


'Nuff said.

One of many examples indeed! The age old story, if you can't do it teach it.

[apac]

What do you guys think would happen if there's another good news. E.g. New product release, signing another agreement.

Anyone want to guess what the price would be in 3 months, 6 months and 1 year?

My guess $2.50 in 3 months, $3.50 in 6 months, and $5 in 1 year.

[janner]

Just cough up .. And shut up .. IMPO..

[craic]

Please tell me why I am blatantly wrong. I have been paying my way, including annual overseas trips from being right on the marketand trading regularly.
This is just blatantly wrong.

[apac]

i assume that the share price is therefore determined by supply and demand... IE greed if it gets to $5

because its taken this company a long time to get here and the balance sheet is deep in the red but they have great assets in IP... now how much money would it take for a big pharma to buy this outfit?

because about now is the time for them to do it unless they are to busy to bother....

because the financial reporting is a joke , very simple stuff

just putting guesses down so in 3, 6, 12 months time, I can look back and see how far away from actual I was. In 3 months it could be back at 50 cents (doubt it), up to $3 (doubt it too) but anything in between is probably a safe guess, and I chose $2.50 out of thin air. But then again, it could be outside of the $.50 to $3 range in 3 months. Time will tell.

Just trying to get a feel of what people think.

[goldfish]

All dependson the actual sales i guess, i was not going to buy any when it was 50cents until they had made some. My how that has changed.gotta roll with it i guess. I dont suppose they have releAsed any forecasts?

[goldfish]

Individual test nunbers forecast i mean?
I hope the sp doesnt get to ahead of itself before we know how sales are.

[blobbles]

If you read back quite far in the thread, we were estimating sales numbers. It is likely the sales numbers in the coming report in November will be very low. Some users here feel 200-500 would be a good result, I felt it will be somewhere between 5-10k (in the US), but now I am more inclined to think around 2-3k given they only had their first sale... last week?

While people have piled into this, I think they assume it is because sales will flow through naturally. I don't entirely disagree, but people need to be very careful! The ability to make sales (which is what the past few announcements were) does not mean they have already made sales! There are many risks associated with sales in the US medical market, particularly political. In reality it is entirely possible that PEB gets torpedoed from somewhere before it can even make a dent in the market. I don't believe this will happen, but it is entirely possible.

What I don't like with this is the SP has essentially gone up almost 300% in a very short space of time, without any concrete sales data. That's not good and completely out of whack even with my optimistic valuations. Hence I see a pullback to around $1-$1.20 in the near future, possibly lower. Right now, I feel the story is a bit over hyped and the traders have control which is indicated through intra day prices (which are all over the place). The market cap is a bit ridiculous (442 million!) - this could be at the lower end of the NZX50 ahead of fine companies like ATM, Diligent, HNZ... all who respectfully have confirmed sales, lots of money from sales in the bank and half decent dividends! Considering PEB hasn't even confirmed significant sales that seems a bit weird. Sure, all the potential is there, but nothing is yet confirmed. As such, if it ends up taking as long as they have previously stated (5 years to get to $100 million revenue), a pull back is certainly in order. Remember that at $100 million US in sales, they are probably only making 50 million in profit... around 16c EPS after the rights issue... and all this in 4 1/2 years time! That would represent a fundamental valuation of around $2.25... Are we really pricing in sales amounts which will hopefully occur in 4 years time, right now? Considering all the risks along the way? Without any confirmed sales or growth rates?

Working backwards... at $1.58 we have fundamentally valued the company as making a $35 million profit (11c EPS @ 7% return), having about 5% US market share, when they have not even broken even and are, in fact, asking us for more money to make it happen.

It would have been much more logical and preferable for me, had the SP gone up a lot slower than it did. While it looks good on my account (lots of big green numbers and up blue arrows!), it doesn't bode well in terms of volatility. So I think if you are a long term holder, prepare for some of those nice numbers currently you see to be looking not quite as nice in a week or two!

Thinking about it - I don't think management of PEB thought that the announcements would see such a huge jump in the SP either. They knew the timing of their reporting and were maybe looking for the rights issue price to be a 20-30% discount to current shareprice to be attractive. I don't think they expected it to be at a 65% discount! Hence you can see what they envisioned the SP to be when it was announced, hence you can judge the amount to which they believe the announcements are worth.

While I don't want to see you all lose money, I do want people to be careful! 300% increase in any shareprice means unbound euphoria is reining, evidenced by many of the posts here. Act with CAUTION.

DISC: Hold PEB shares, have for a long time, will for a long time still!

[Cows-with-guns]

If you read back quite far in the thread, we were estimating sales numbers. It is likely the sales numbers in the coming report in November will be very low. Some users here feel 200-500 would be a good result, I felt it will be somewhere between 5-10k (in the US), but now I am more inclined to think around 2-3k given they only had their first sale... last week?

While people have piled into this, I think they assume it is because sales will flow through naturally. I don't entirely disagree, but people need to be very careful! The ability to make sales (which is what the past few announcements were) does not mean they have already made sales! There are many risks associated with sales in the US medical market, particularly political. In reality it is entirely possible that PEB gets torpedoed from somewhere before it can even make a dent in the market. I don't believe this will happen, but it is entirely possible.

What I don't like with this is the SP has essentially gone up almost 300% in a very short space of time, without any concrete sales data. That's not good and completely out of whack even with my optimistic valuation of its IP. Hence I see a pullback to around $1-$1.20 in the near future, possibly lower. Right now, I feel the story is a bit over hyped and the traders have control which is indicated through intra day prices (which are all over the place). The market cap is a bit ridiculous - this could be at the lower end of the NZX50! Considering the company hasn't even confirmed significant sales that seems a bit weird. Sure, all the potential is there, but nothing is yet confirmed. As such, if it ends up taking as long as they have previously stated (5 years to get to $100 million revenue), a pull back is certainly in order.

It would have been much more logical had the SP gone up a lot slower than it did. While it looks good on my account (lots of big green numbers and up blue arrows!), it doesn't bode well in terms of volatility. So I think if you are a long term holder, prepare for some of those nice numbers currently you see to be looking not quite as nice in a week or two!

And what happens if they release news that they have signed deals with Medicare and Medicade?

[goldfish]

Well said blobbes some good points to ponder , lots of hype round at the moment. Sure makes for one hell of a ride though, a lot of potential must be built into the sp currently.

Cowswithguns...i almost hope they dont as we would probably see 5$+ with that news.

[goldfish]

I look at my portfolio and wonder why my other stocks arent up 90% in a couple of days, i can get used to this.

[False Profit]

How can anyone hope to judge the future price when not one of us knew we'd be at the current price just a week or two ago.
The feed of info concerning new deals in the States makes this a volatile one for a while yet - IMHO

But just for the sake of argument (in months). I DARE anyone to disagree but if you do then give me good reasons...
3 = 3.50,
6 = 4 to 5
12 = 10

[psychic]

Finally ... my namesake area of expertise. Time to add psychic analysis (hereinafter PA) to the bag of tricks.....

[craic]

How can anyone hope to judge the future price when not one of us knew we'd be at the current price just a week or two ago.
The feed of info concerning new deals in the States makes this a volatile one for a while yet - IMHO

But just for the sake of argument (in months). I DARE anyone to disagree but if you do then give me good reasons...
3 = 3.50,
6 = 4 to 5
12 = 10
One reason that bothers me is that ideas like this can be absorbed into the machinery of a large place well north of here, be modified or altered slightly and come out at their price with a "Made in China" sticker on the bottom. Wellington Drive Technologies were about to change the world with their revolutionary motor twelve or fourteen years ago and there are still followers who argue that it's about to happen. I have about $6,000 in this one since last monday but the day after I secure the extras through rights a 55cps I will drop them. I would like to be wrong but I think you will be able to buy these at $1.00 - $1.20 by around Christmas.

[Jay]

Hope they have their accounting systems in order;) unlike another company we all know that received the same anount of enthusiastic posts

Disc: Still have funds in both companies!

[Whipmoney]

One reason that bothers me is that ideas like this can be absorbed into the machinery of a large place well north of here, be modified or altered slightly and come out at their price with a "Made in China" sticker on the bottom. .

China would need the IP (biomarker essays etc) to copy this and even if they did come up with a similar test it would take years to get their proof of concept, CLIA registration etc in place.

PEB's competitive advantage is not just the PROVEN science behind the test, it's also their great set-up in Hersey, PA. Once they get comfort with all of the big insurers I don't think a replica test will have much chance of entering the market.. unless it is both of a higher efficacy and is also cheaper..

[zymwh]

My neighbour dairy shop has started sale. Do you value it for 400m?? IMHO peb atm hnz they are in totally different industry...

[CJ]

One reason that bothers me is that ideas like this can be absorbed into the machinery of a large place well north of here, be modified or altered slightly and come out at their price with a "Made in China" sticker on the bottom. They maybe about to copy it but they wont get medical approval for a product that breaches IP. Therefore while they may be able to copy it, only the dodgy practitioners in Mexico and Asia will be able to use it, not any OECD type country.

The medial approval provides that extra layer of protection that threat of lawsuit just doesn't have.

[JimHickey]

I cant see it dropping too much. There has been a crazy amount of turnover at these price levels and if its price holds close to where it is itll make the NZX50 in december.

[Dentie]

My neighbour dairy shop has started sale. Do you value it for 400m?? IMHO peb atm hnz they are in totally different industry...

..............?

[Cows-with-guns]

LOL, gotta love the dude who has placed a pre market open order to buy 600 PEB @ $1.90. You go guy!!!

[clip]

it opened 30% up yesterday morning didn't it? $1.58 * 1.3 = $2.054.. he might get lucky. very very keen though LOL

[Radler]

The tradable rights code will be PEBRC and start on 5/11

[CJ]

LOL, gotta love the dude who has placed a pre market open order to buy 600 PEB @ $1.90. You go guy!!!It might the the last part of this buy order and he just wants to get it filled so he has a round number of shares (imagine only holding 9400 when you really wanted 10000).

[Cows-with-guns]

Anyone care to see my modelling now I have included Asia?

(It may hurt your eyes... particularly if you are selling...)

4937
4938

Interesting, I like the look of it, hopefully this is the start of things to come.

[Xerof]

It might the the last part of this buy order and he just wants to get it filled so he has a round number of shares (imagine only holding 9400 when you really wanted 10000).
And he gets them at the match price, which currently sits at 159

[777]

LOL, gotta love the dude who has placed a pre market open order to buy 600 PEB @ $1.90. You go guy!!!

Nothing unusual in this. Standard practice in opening every day in most stocks. Simply puts him at the front of the queue at matching price.

[Toasty]

It might the the last part of this buy order and he just wants to get it filled so he has a round number of shares (imagine only holding 9400 when you really wanted 10000).

I have 17249 which I find quite irritating. The result of accidently loading up two orders in the frenzy and then cancelling one half way through. In hindsight I lucked out because I got more than I had planned at 63 but I should have let it ride and picked up a round 20k. Makes it annoying when doing quick calculations.

[ddrone]

Depth seems at odds either side this morning, looks like there will be so major fluctuation.

[ddrone]

I've been in and out a few times (got in at .75), a stop loss (that I'd forgotten I had!) forced my hand on the rights issue tumble so right now I'm looking for good re-entry and trading points.

[Whipmoney]

LOL, gotta love the dude who has placed a pre market open order to buy 600 PEB @ $1.90. You go guy!!!

He's just positioning for priority.. doesn't actually pay $1.90.. he actually got in at $1.59.

[Slam dunk]

Remember that 55 cent option may be weighing on some peoples minds as well (why PEB didn't wait a few weeks AFTER the announcement before determining the price, I have no idea!).

DISC - Not holding and not looking to buy at these levels.


Because as Darling said the offer was "carefully priced for our shareholders to make sure they get the upside". I can't understand why anyone is anything other than thrilled with the rights issue & the price set, and wouldn't take up as many as they can!

[goldfish]

Because as Darling said the offer was "carefully priced for our shareholders to make sure they get the upside". I can't understand why anyone is anything other than thrilled with the rights issue & the price set, and wouldn't take up as many as they can!
Yes its a slam dunk really, im looking to get some more before then, just waiting for it to fall, bit expensive for me at the moment. Maybe 130 if its possible.

[ddrone]

OK cool. I figured you were a trader based on your comments ;) Just wanted to clarify.

What are you thinking for re-entry? you think it will go below 150 today?

I would like to get back in with a big volume at around 1.30 but I don't know if that opportunity will arise, unlikely to today but could next week on no news and people profit taking / repositioning. Biggest risk to this type of behaviour is clearly more positive announcements which would annihilate my position!

Below 1.50? Maybe, I think the odds of it closing above aren't very good.

[QOH]

Got a bit nervous sold some at $1.55, all good though the most expensives ones I bought
were 74 cents Monday morning. Am hoping to get them back later in the day, if not I've still got plenty.

[goldfish]

Got a bit nervous sold some at $1.55, all good though the most expensives ones I bought
were 74 cents Monday morning. Am hoping to get them back later in the day, if not I've still got plenty.

Not a bad profit for a week eh...good times.

[tosspot]

Got a bit nervous sold some at $1.55, all good though the most expensives ones I bought
were 74 cents Monday morning. Am hoping to get them back later in the day, if not I've still got plenty.
did the same thing sold at 1.54 half my holding after getting in at 70c put a buy back at 1.30

[apac]

Which share do we feel is riskier, PEB or XRO?

[Toasty]

Which share do we feel is riskier, PEB or XRO?

I would probably lump them in the same boat. Both have enormous potential and both have signed high level agreements with major players in their chosen arenas. They are both raising or have raised expansion capital.

It all comes down to execution and both seems to have proven leaders who are following through on stated plans. Just my feelings.

[apac]

I would probably lump them in the same boat. Both have enormous potential and both have signed high level agreements with major players in their chosen arenas. They are both raising or have raised expansion capital.

It all comes down to execution and both seems to have proven leaders who are following through on stated plans. Just my feelings.

Thanks. I have more money in XRO, and I feel it's less risky, as I feel when Peter Thiel et al invested at $18.15, they would expect a lot more than double their money back, perhaps a takeover at $60 or something.

With PEB, it's driven by hype and news. If we get a big VC investment in PEB, even if it's just $20m, I would be more comfortable investing more. Long term, the return might be better than XRO at today's price, but just don't want to buy at say $1.50, when in a few weeks/days/hours it drops down to $1.

[JimHickey]

I would probably lump them in the same boat. Both have enormous potential and both have signed high level agreements with major players in their chosen arenas. They are both raising or have raised expansion capital.

It all comes down to execution and both seems to have proven leaders who are following through on stated plans. Just my feelings.You can counter this argument by saying that Xero is a lot easier to copy, PEB is much harder to emulate. But this argument is a waste of time anyway, they are very different companies operating in very different environments.

[ddrone]

Absolutely agree with that. Long term upside for me is far greater with PEB than XRO at these prices, but that is exactly what you would expect if you believe the risk is greater in PEB than XRO.

PEB is very much groundfloor at this point too, much much more SP potential (and associated risk..).

[False Profit]

Bit up and down today. There's resistance at 145 and its popped back up to 150. Major sell at 160 according to depth on DB

[apac]

Was going to sell my RYM and ETF to buy back PEB today, but given that it is probably over hyped, and more risky, decided against it.

[Merc]

And a new article in the NZ Herald... http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11146222

[kiora]

Execution risk definitely. They can't afford to stuff it up ! How many tests are they set up to do & in an auditable way ? Logistically a lot for them to get through but I'm sure they have a plan !

[False Profit]

To play Devil's Advocate, the procrastinators on PEB may be thinking it's too good to be true. I don't call any of the news coming from PEB "Hype." I see factual statements coming from them highlighting big steps being accomplished on a longer journey. I'm eagerly looking for a way to expand on my holding before the deadline date for the 55c deal.

In it for the long term as previously stated and desperately trying not to peek at the price every 30 minutes!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Toasty]

You can counter this argument by saying that Xero is a lot easier to copy, PEB is much harder to emulate. But this argument is a waste of time anyway, they are very different companies operating in very different environments.

Good point but I think in both cases they have a significant lead time over their competition.

[Anonymous]

A little kiwisaver fund superlife Gemino had 26% PEB 2 million odd shares 31/8/13. Would be a nice week for people with $30 000 kiwisaver in there. Well worth the $10 fees and no tax either.

Surely funds in this situation would have to be selling wouldn't they? Everything else being equal from the 31/8/13 report then PEB is now over 50% of the portfolio. I know it is a high risk portfolio but that is taking it to the extreme isn't it...? It is still a Kiwisaver fund after all.

[Merc]

As someone who has over the years gone from "Me buying shares = The major trigger for the next recession" through to Beginner in 2006 to Advanced Beginner earlier this year there is still a lot I don't know. PEB and this thread is definitely helping with the learning curve as it gives more questions to ask.

- What on earth is a "stop loss" and how do you implement one?
- How does this overnight business work? On Tuesday it closed at $1.06 but in the morning it opened at over $1.30. Why?
- Why does someone putting in a Buy offer at $1.90 get first preference at cheaper shares overnight?

<There's more but those are the ones I can think of at the moment>

[stoploss]

As someone who has over the years gone from "Me buying shares = The major trigger for the next recession" through to Beginner in 2006 to Advanced Beginner earlier this year there is still a lot I don't know. PEB and this thread is definitely helping with the learning curve as it gives more questions to ask.

- What on earth is a "stop loss" and how do you implement one?
- How does this overnight business work? On Tuesday it closed at $1.06 but in the morning it opened at over $1.30. Why?
- Why does someone putting in a Buy offer at $1.90 get first preference at cheaper shares overnight?

<There's more but those are the ones I can think of at the moment>

A stoploss would be a pre determined level where you would cut your position. For disiplined traders !!!! Some systems allow you to set a level for it to automatically do this.
Overnight and in the morning a lot of press coverage on this stock brought it to the attention to a whole lot of new invvestors.
The system levels out the best buys and sells in the market so the highest bid will be set first on the buy side.

cheers S/L

[samshields]

Can someone please explain the 55c deal please! ?
Thanks

[Merc]

Thank you stoploss.

And another question. The ASB depth chart shows a list of buyers who want to buy at a low price and sellers who want to sell at a higher price. So how do sales occur between them?

Or is it a whole lot of other sellers who just charge in and say "sell at market price" so the top buyers get them or buyers who charge in and say "buy at market price" so they buy at the lowest seller's price?

[NZSilver]

Hold, hold and hold (for you again mossie if you have any left)! Reward is huge but as always still risk which seems to be diminishing at every announcement - (still however an unprofitable company) but the stars are aligning. Cf XRO - we are talking about companies in different industries but the biggy I see is PEB offers a product with much less competition and should be profitable soonish, and (competition is at least 5 years away) XRO has a lot of competition (some big some small) . I hold PEB, never held XRO and it's ridiculous price is nearly as hard to keep up with as this peb forum.

[CJ]

Can someone please explain the 55c deal please! ?
ThanksHave you read the announcement and the last 5-10 pages of this thread? What aspect of it do you not understand. For every 15 shares you hold, you can buy 2 at 55c each. If you don't want to buy, you can do nothing (dumb but the rest of us will love you for it) or you can sell. The shareprice should drop, in theory, in proportion to the new shares issues.

New cash will enable them to accelerate growth so expect them to triple in a 24h period once that happens ;)

[stoploss]

Thank you stoploss.

And another question. The ASB depth chart shows a list of buyers who want to buy at a low price and sellers who want to sell at a higher price. So how do sales occur between them?

Or is it a whole lot of other sellers who just charge in and say "sell at market price" so the top buyers get them or buyers who charge in and say "buy at market price" so they buy at the lowest seller's price?

You certainly do not get to buy at the lowest sellers price.Basically the system works out where it can match the most volume of trades by averaging out all the buys and sells that are inverse ( roughly ) In the ANZ/DB system it shows you a "match" or levelling price that this is going to occur at . I am not sure if the ASB system shows this , I think only the bids and offers ....

[False Profit]

Can someone please explain the 55c deal please! ?
Thanks

Hi, go back over the last 10 pages. It'll all be revealed. :)

[CJ]

In the ANZ/DB system it shows you a "match" or levelling price that this is going to occur at . I am not sure if the ASB system shows this , I think only the bids and offers ....ASB doesn't so can be a bit of mental gymnastics trying to work it out. They also show a depth of ten prices on each side which can make it impossible when the overlap is more than that (only seen that once - which was with PEB the other day)

[ddrone]

ASB doesn't so can be a bit of mental gymnastics trying to work it out. They also show a depth of ten prices on each side whcih can make it impossible when the overlap is more than that (only seen that once - which was with PEB the other day)

Wow, ASB is pretty bad huh. Sticking with Direct Broking :)

[apac]

Is there a online broker in NZ other than ASB that can do stop loss and trigger orders? thanks

[ddrone]

Is there a online broker in NZ other than ASB that can do stop loss and trigger orders? thanks

Direct Broking / ANZ does but you have to request it.

[RTM]

You certainly do not get to buy at the lowest sellers price.Basically the system works out where it can match the most volume of trades by averaging out all the buys and sells that are inverse ( roughly ) In the ANZ/DB system it shows you a "match" or levelling price that this is going to occur at . I am not sure if the ASB system shows this , I think only the bids and offers ....

Hi Stoploss.....I've just started to use the DB system. I wonder if you could elaborate, particularly on the bit in bold and underlined. Before trading starts...I can see the matching occurring, but after things get underway I am not at all sure how to read the Bids and Asks columns to see the match occurring. Is my question clear ?

Cheers, RTM.

[ddrone]

Really? I didn't know that. So is that only by phone?

You have to request the feature, once implemented it's there for you to use whenever you make a buy / sell.

Use with care, you can both be saved and punished (as I've found out) so set your thresholds appropriately.

[Mista_Trix]

Hi Stoploss.....I've just started to use the DB system. I wonder if you could elaborate, particularly on the bit in bold and underlined. Before trading starts...I can see the matching occurring, but after things get underway I am not at all sure how to read the Bids and Asks columns to see the match occurring. Is my question clear ?

Cheers, RTM.

Also with the averaging process it actually takes quite a while to show up what your average buy price is. I bought some PEB the other day using this hoping for a quick trade. I put my buy in at $1.55 to get the average, but for about 40 minutes after it showed my trade had gone through at $1.55 until it later averaged down to $1.39.

So you need to be careful with that time element as well.

DISC; use ANZ

[Mista_Trix]

You have to request the feature, once implemented it's there for you to use whenever you make a buy / sell.

Use with care, you can both be saved and punished (as I've found out) so set your thresholds appropriately.

Can you use a traveling stoploss (ie 10%) or do you have to use a fixed price and readjust on movement?

[Mista_Trix]

That's strange, because I was watching the depth through DB and that was updating pretty much in real time... You are talking about Wednesday right?

Yip Wednesday it was.
Strange, coz the ANZ system is just DB with a skin isn't it?

[geo]

Another way to purchase your rights if you do not have the cash and don't want to miss out.
Go into O/D at your bank,or get very short term loan don't worry about how much interest you have pay, it will only be for a few weeks compared the return you will get if the SP is still around $1.50. No I do not recommend margin lending as a rule in this case it's a way to get what you need. When you have settled the purchase of rights sell enough to pay back your borrowing and show a healthy profit.

[ddrone]

So you can request it as a feature to be used online?

Does it cost anything for the feature? or anything additional in terms of fees when you use it?

Cheers.

No extra that I'm aware of no, it just has to be added so it's active on your account.

[ddrone]

Can you use a traveling stoploss (ie 10%) or do you have to use a fixed price and readjust on movement?

I think the latter but someone may be able to explain otherwise.

[blobbles]

And what happens if they release news that they have signed deals with Medicare and Medicade?

If this was to happen, the SP would jump again. But predicting when it will happen is a mugs game unless you have insider knowledge.

Again the current share price reflects a fundamental valuation of 5% market share in USA when we have no confirmation of significant sales, no idea about growth rates and they are asking us for more money to hire more sales people. 5% of USA sales is probably 3-4 years down the track according to PEBs target, yet I suspect most posters on here seem to think it will happen in the next announcement!

Buy at these levels with caution!

[tunsbro]

Increased my holdings significantly on today's drop into the 1.40's.
Seems like there is support building at 1.50. Still a lot of big orders pushing it above that this morning.

The potential expanded pipeline is also exciting - From the Herald article linked earlier:

"The company hopes to raise $20.5 million to continue the rollout of Cxbladder with two other similar tests, Cxbladder triage and Cxbladder predict, in the US and further research on alternative cancer tests.The company was initially looking at tests for five different cancers; bladder, gastric, colorectal, melanoma and endometrial.
"The long and short of it is that the bladder cancer test showed the most promising initial signs so we went with it. The refinery process included an 18-month, $1.6 million clinical trial, before it was approved for use earlier this year."

Have any of the test results of the additional cancers ever been published?

[Mista_Trix]

Increased my holdings significantly on today's drop into the 1.40's.
Seems like there is support building at 1.50. Still a lot of big orders pushing it above that this morning.

The potential expanded pipeline is also exciting - From the Herald article linked earlier:

"The company hopes to raise $20.5 million to continue the rollout of Cxbladder with two other similar tests, Cxbladder triage and Cxbladder predict, in the US and further research on alternative cancer tests.The company was initially looking at tests for five different cancers; bladder, gastric, colorectal, melanoma and endometrial.
"The long and short of it is that the bladder cancer test showed the most promising initial signs so we went with it. The refinery process included an 18-month, $1.6 million clinical trial, before it was approved for use earlier this year."

Have any of the test results of the additional cancers ever been published?

Gotta wonder what effect the traders exiting at the end of the week will have on the SP this afternoon though.

[Whipmoney]

Gotta wonder what effect the traders exiting at the end of the week will have on the SP this afternoon though.

I'm expecting a further retracement.

[Mista_Trix]

I'm expecting a further retracement.

Especially as this is the first negative day we've had in a MASSIVE run. Gotta think a few of them were holding with a bit of a 'wait and see' attitude. I'm expecting a bit more downwards momentum, but still wayyy in the positive on this, as I'm sure everyone is :) So long term its just a very small bit off the top, which I'm sure will be made back soon enough.

[apac]

Cool thank you. Ill give them a call at some point!

Awesome, just got it done. Takes a few seconds for them to do. It'll be handy if I want to put a trigger for say when it exceeds $2, but need to learn how to use it properly

[777]

There could also be buyers (those with patience) waiting for such a sell off. Watch the closing 15mins.