PEB - Pacific Edge Ltd

[gonzo56]

Awesome, just got it done. Takes a few seconds for them to do. It'll be handy if I want to put a trigger for say when it exceeds $2, but need to learn how to use it properly

Why isn't this standard... I'm gonna ask them

[Merc]

Wow, ASB is pretty bad huh. Sticking with Direct Broking :)

ASB/Bank Direct customer so share trading with ASB made sense. Instant transfer of funds allowing immediate buy rather than having to wait for interbank transfers to go through

[Whipmoney]

Especially as this is the first negative day we've had in a MASSIVE run. Gotta think a few of them were holding with a bit of a 'wait and see' attitude. I'm expecting a bit more downwards momentum, but still wayyy in the positive on this, as I'm sure everyone is :) So long term its just a very small bit off the top, which I'm sure will be made back soon enough.

Yeah fair enough, you've got enough of a buffer to wear any retracements and if you're holding long on fundamentals then its not something you should worry about.

Personally I agree with Blobbles that the SP has risen to fast too quick on not amount of solid information. The insurance announcements are great for the company and obviously sales will materialise from these. However they will need several more of these big contracts in both the US and worldwide and it will also take some time for the tests to flow so to speak.

Great outlook on the whole in the long-term, however i'm banking on a retracement in the short-term and will consider buying more at a cheaper price. But to be honest with the like of Xero who knows in this market!

DISC: Side-lined.

[ddrone]

ASB/Bank Direct customer so share trading with ASB made sense. Instant transfer of funds allowing immediate buy rather than having to wait for interbank transfers to go through

ANZ runs on 3 day settlement so no need to have funds at time of purchase.

[apac]

Why isn't this standard... I'm gonna ask them

Am I correct to say using this feature, if the prices are going down, and is sitting at $1, to prevent catching a falling knife, I can set a buy order of $1.20, with a $1.10 trigger, and if it keeps falling, my order won't be executed until it comes back up?

So instead of buying at $1 immediately when I put in a $1.20 order, it could fall to say 70 cents, and come back to $1.10, and my orders will be triggered and fulfilled up to $1.20, so I'm buying on the up trend?

[gv1]

Yeah fair enough, you've got enough of a buffer to wear any retracements and if you're holding long on fundamentals then its not something you should worry about.

Personally I agree with Blobbles that the SP has risen to fast too quick on not amount of solid information. The insurance announcements are great for the company and obviously sales will materialise from these. However they will need several more of these big contracts in both the US and worldwide and it will also take some time for the tests to flow so to speak.

Great outlook on the whole in the long-term, however i'm banking on a retracement in the short-term and will consider buying more at a cheaper price. But to be honest with the like of Xero who knows in this market!

DISC: Side-lined.

As you read nzhearld, CEO says there has been US investors buying in this co. Thinking price to drop, just does not make sense. Only more overseas investors will top up.

[JohnnyTheHorse]

Most of my sell signals that I use for a run like this have gone off. I think I'll start seriously looking again at around $1.20 - probably in a few weeks. Stocks will usually have quite a pullback after a run like this. Patience. The rights offer and any news could mess that plan up though obviously.

Disc: Not holding.

[Whipmoney]

As you read nzhearld, CEO says there has been US investors buying in this co. Thinking price to drop, just does not make sense. Only more overseas investors will top up.

Well it may make sense when they announce their actual sales results in NOV. If you do well off US investor's optimism/europhoria then Kudos to you, but I after a run like this I can't really see her holding steady until the next announcement. Sooner or later profit-taking will kick in.

[apac]

Am I correct to say using this feature, if the prices are going down, and is sitting at $1, to prevent catching a falling knife, I can set a buy order of $1.20, with a $1.10 trigger, and if it keeps falling, my order won't be executed until it comes back up?

So instead of buying at $1 immediately when I put in a $1.20 order, it could fall to say 70 cents, and come back to $1.10, and my orders will be triggered and fulfilled up to $1.20, so I'm buying on the up trend?

Also if I want to top up, and don't want to miss the boat, I can put in a buy order for say $1.70 now, and trigger at $1.60, so if there's a major news, my trigger order may not be all filled, but I won't miss out completely?

[ddrone]

Also if I want to top up, and don't want to miss the boat, I can put in a buy order for say $1.70 now, and trigger at $1.60, so if there's a major news, my trigger order may not be all filled, but I won't miss out completely?

It will buy at the first opportunity from $1.60 so it may or may not fill completely. Given the volatility you may want to be careful with your ranges, $1.60 has been touched many times without a run actually occurring.

[QOH]

I was hoping/expecting it would go lower this afternoon. Want to rebuy what I sold this morning but don't want to pay more than 145.

[apac]

Ah also is the reason for small volume bot or human trading used so it triggers people's trigger orders?

[CJ]

Also if I want to top up, and don't want to miss the boat, I can put in a buy order for say $1.70 now, and trigger at $1.60, so if there's a major news, my trigger order may not be all filled, but I won't miss out completely?yes but you have to watch for gap up (or gap down with stop losses).

If you put in that $1.10 - $1.20 order n Tuesday night (when the close was ~$1) then you would have missed out as it opened on Wednesday on ~$1.50. So while it was above $1.10 to trigger your buying, it was above you limit of $1.20, so your order wouldn't have gone though. Re stop losses, look at what happened with DIL a couple of weeks ago and see how you may have missed out with a tight stop loss limit order

[apac]

I was hoping/expecting it would go lower this afternoon. Want to rebuy what I sold this morning but don't want to pay more than 145.

What I wanted to do with XRO, is when it was at about $19, I sold out one day, and thought if it goes down, I'll buy it back, if it goes above $20 I will buy it back too, but I had to watch it manually without trigger orders. Trigger orders can also be good for auto trading when resistance level is broken?

[Lorne Ranger]

Hmmm, SP is down overall on the day but has recovered three times from reasonable downward pressure. Seems the support for this stock might not be allowing it to drop too much. Last hour will be interesting, could fling either way but i would pick a slight recovery rather than a retrenchment. Oh the tension. ; )

[Bobcat.]

Rights issues do tend to weigh upon a stocks price until close to the ex date. I could be wrong (many times I have been before) but I'm figuring two trading days before the ex date of 5 Nov will be a good time to buy into this stock again..i.e. next Friday afternoon may be the best time.

[Balance]

Rights issues do tend to weigh upon a stocks price until close to the ex date. I could be wrong (many times I have been before) but I'm figuring two trading days before the ex date of 5 Nov will be a good time to buy into this stock again..i.e. next Friday afternoon may be the best time.

Problem may be heaps of buyers all thinking about the same thing!

[blobbles]

Rights issues do tend to weigh upon a stocks price until close to the ex date. I could be wrong (many times I have been before) but I'm figuring two trading days before the ex date of 5 Nov will be a good time to buy into this stock again..i.e. next Friday afternoon may be the best time.

The other time might be after all the rights have been issued and people selling them for a profit...

[QOH]

me thinks end of week profit taking might make it close lower than current price.

Am trying to buy at 145 but don't think it's going to happen

[Wolf]

Im currently tossing up whether to top up or not.
Thinking most likely there will be another rise on monday but then again the drop today could carry over to a drop on monday as well :/

[apac]

Am trying to buy at 145 but don't think it's going to happen

Unless you are a trader, I don't think 145 and 149 makes a big difference. I would rather be sure than miss out.

Having said that, now that I have the trigger order funciton, I can always use it, so rather than buy at the current sell price, I can put a trigger for a higher price, and a buy order for a lower price.

I guess there's no real right and wrong in the different approaches, and I'm not sure if my "strategy" is even feasible, feel free to comment.

[Wolf]

Is there anything that shows the current match price? Or do i have to manually work it out?

[Merc]

Im currently tossing up whether to top up or not.
Thinking most likely there will be another rise on monday but then again the drop today could carry over to a drop on monday as well :/

Tuesday my friend, Tuesday...

Minor matter of a long weekend.

[Bobcat.]

Problem may be heaps of buyers all thinking about the same thing!

Well, that's fine so long as they think about doing the same thing and then do it just after I've bought my lot.

Blobbles, what I've observed before about other rights trading activities, is that if it's a popular stock (and this one surely is), the rights trading is unlikely to drive down the price of the head stock.

We'll see in 10 days or so.

BC

[Wolf]

Tuesday my friend, Tuesday...

Minor matter of a long weekend.

Haha my bad

[blobbles]

Im currently tossing up whether to top up or not.
Thinking most likely there will be another rise on monday but then again the drop today could carry over to a drop on monday as well :/

I think anyone who trades will be able to tell you the likely trajectory of a stock that has seen a 300% increase in 3 days and is now showing signs of dropping. Hell, you don't even need to be a trader... pretty much a screaming sell for traders out there, but the rights issue murkies the waters.

[Bobcat.]

...now that I have the trigger order funciton, I can always use it, so rather than buy at the current sell price, I can put a trigger for a higher price, and a buy order for a lower price.

I guess there's no real right and wrong in the different approaches, and I'm not sure if my "strategy" is even feasible, feel free to comment.

Works well with FOREX trading, which is typically a lot more volatile.

[777]

Is there anything that shows the current match price? Or do i have to manually work it out?

Not difficult to work out. it is 149 at present.

[Minerbarejet]

I think anyone who trades will be able to tell you the likely trajectory of a stock that has seen a 300% increase in 3 days and is now showing signs of dropping. Hell, you don't even need to be a trader... pretty much a screaming sell for traders out there, but the rights issue murkies the waters.
Well done blobbles you just invented a new word - murkies:)

[blobbles]

Well done blobbles you just invented a new word - murkies:)

I love neologism! Down 9c today with the range tightening considerably. Lucky the rights issue is on or I would have picked $1.35 as todays closing!

[MAC]

I love neologism! Down 9c today with the range tightening considerably. Lucky the rights issue is on or I would have picked $1.35 as todays closing!

I think blobbles you may underestimate the interest now from institutional and offshore buyers, all probably quite happy to start accumulating and gobbling up at $1.50, perhaps more so if PEB enters the NZ50, all those index adjustments to be made.

[blobbles]

I think blobbles you may underestimate the interest now from institutional and offshore buyers, all probably quite happy to start accumulating and gobbling up at $1.50, perhaps more so if PEB enters the NZ50, all those index adjustments to be made.

Happy to be proven wrong MAC. The amount of small trading going on over the past few days inclines me to think it is mainly traders doing what they do best rather than big overseas people or institutions. Until they start selling the product, I really can't see how a 300% increase is justified.

[blobbles]

Oh and - do you think this deserves to be in the NZX50? I don't think it would get in there on current data, why? Because they aren't making revenue, as opposed to HNZ/DIL/ATM who are all there with a SP based on REVENUE, not hopes of revenue. ATM is already a $100 million a year revenue company, yet it is currently valued at almost the same as PEB, who have only a few million with hopes (admittedly high and very good hopes) of much more.

When they can prove they can sell, then they will be treated like a normal company. Until then I don't think they would allow a company onto the NZX50 based on IP and potential.

[CJ]

Oh and - do you think this deserves to be in the NZX50? I don't think it would get in there on current data, why? Because they aren't making revenue, as opposed to HNZ/DIL/ATM who are all there with a SP based on REVENUE, not hopes of revenue. ATM is already a $100 million a year revenue company, yet it is currently valued at almost the same as PEB, who have only a few million with hopes (admittedly high and very good hopes) of much more.

When they can prove they can sell, then they will be treated like a normal company. Until then I don't think they would allow a company onto the NZX50 based on IP and potential.I don't think that is a factor and not sure if they have that much discretion. Will take a while for them to be included as they have to be above the thresholds for a certain period of time - I think someone mentioned 6 months - unless it is an obvious case (ie. MRP and MEL)

[geo]

All this talk of catching falling knifes,and the price moving 5.10c on the day why bother if you have invested forget the price it will go up over time CHILL-OUT.

[zymwh]

That's how the traders make money lol yes why bother

[Lorne Ranger]

All this talk of catching falling knifes,and the price moving 5.10c on the day why bother if you have invested forget the price it will go up over time CHILL-OUT.

Thats definitely one way to approach it, as I have with Xero. But its still not the most comfortable thing watching a few grand sliced off your investment while the little voice says "push the button and it will all be rosey". Hence the addiction to viewing the SP on days like these.

Other end of the scale, I have SUM shares too and actually forgot I owned them for about a month! yawn.

[winner69]

I think anyone who trades will be able to tell you the likely trajectory of a stock that has seen a 300% increase in 3 days and is now showing signs of dropping. Hell, you don't even need to be a trader... pretty much a screaming sell for traders out there, but the rights issue murkies the waters.

Good one inventing the word murkies .... now for the maths, it be a 200% increase

Still pretty good though

[geo]

Well said.

[Minerbarejet]

Good one inventing the word murkies .... now for the maths, it be a 200% increase

Still pretty good thougha quick google search has thrown up the word "murkies" only as a collective noun for people who like mystery. We are delving into Kant and philosophy here. I suppose it applies to all of us here as its all a bit of a mystery as to where the SP is going.

[blobbles]

Good one inventing the word murkies .... now for the maths, it be a 200% increase

Still pretty good though

Yes, true sorry, a 300% increase over 4 days? Regardless it was at 50c in recent memory...

[Nigel]

Yes, true sorry, a 300% increase over 4 days? Regardless it was at 50c in recent memory...

Um, from 50c, a 100% increase would take it to $1; a 200% increase would take it to $1.50. So only a 200% increase in the space of days. Stink.

[barney]

Oh and - do you think this deserves to be in the NZX50? I don't think it would get in there on current data, why? Because they aren't making revenue, as opposed to HNZ/DIL/ATM who are all there with a SP based on REVENUE, not hopes of revenue. ATM is already a $100 million a year revenue company, yet it is currently valued at almost the same as PEB, who have only a few million with hopes (admittedly high and very good hopes) of much more.

When they can prove they can sell, then they will be treated like a normal company. Until then I don't think they would allow a company onto the NZX50 based on IP and potential.

If both ATM and PEB were earning revenues of $100m, the difference would be the vast gap in profit margin between the two. A couple of dollars on a bottle of milk versus several hundred dollars on a cxbladder test.

Rather than the dramatic rise in the shareprice over the last week, I thing I would have preferred a more gradual rise over a longer period, not that I'm unhappy. But the volitility can be a little nerve racking.

However, there is one thing to keep in mind. For those who have followed this company over a long period, the shareprice has always languished around 20c, give or take fluctuations of 10c either side. By a long period I'm talking over a decade. All during that time the company has gone about its business of researching and developing products to a point where they are only now just entering markets. Until this year, and in particular the last fortnight, virtually no value has been placed on the progress the company has made in the run up to commercialsation. It's only now that the market has realised the value that has been accruing over the last ten or more years and the shareprice has finally caught up.

It also seems that cxbladder has been accepted in the US a lot faster than may have been anticipated, even by the company itself. From only having opened the Hershey lab in March, and having sales people on the ground since July, they have made their first sales and signed two major deals, with more to come. If they manage to sign up Medicare amd medicaid, and I think they probably will, then we really will be away laughing.

[MAC]

Something of importance that may have been lost amongst all the fantastic news this week is the acknowledgement that PEB now have approval to sell in Spain, ref NZ Herald this morning.

The PEB website still has the status for Europe as;

“In preparation for the launch of Cxbladder in Spain through our commercial partner Oryzon, applications for CE Mark registration and compliance are currently underway”.

Please correct me if I’m wrong but this must mean PEB now have achieved CE mark registration in Europe, not a small milestone in itself for a small company located as far from Europe as can be.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11146222

[blobbles]

Um, from 50c, a 100% increase would take it to $1; a 200% increase would take it to $1.50. So only a 200% increase in the space of days. Stink.


Ha haa, your right, maths failure :eek:

[blobbles]

If both ATM and PEB were earning revenues of $100m, the difference would be the vast gap in profit margin between the two. A couple of dollars on a bottle of milk versus several hundred dollars on a cxbladder test.

Rather than the dramatic rise in the shareprice over the last week, I thing I would have preferred a more gradual rise over a longer period, not that I'm unhappy. But the volitility can be a little nerve racking.

However, there is one thing to keep in mind. For those who have followed this company over a long period, the shareprice has always languished around 20c, give or take fluctuations of 10c either side. By a long period I'm talking over a decade. All during that time the company has gone about its business of researching and developing products to a point where they are only now just entering markets. Until this year, and in particular the last fortnight, virtually no value has been placed on the progress the company has made in the run up to commercialsation. It's only now that the market has realised the value that has been accruing over the last ten or more years and the shareprice has finally caught up.

It also seems that cxbladder has been accepted in the US a lot faster than may have been anticipated, even by the company itself. From only having opened the Hershey lab in March, and having sales people on the ground since July, they have made their first sales and signed two major deals, with more to come. If they manage to sign up Medicare amd medicaid, and I think they probably will, then we really will be away laughing.

While ATM might only sell bottles worth "a couple of dollars", they have the potential to sell 10's of millions of bottles!

I don't want to bag PEB at all, they are doing a fantastic and I partly agree with your statement of the SP only just catching up to its IP. I take issue with the idea that they are now "accepted" in the US, they are accepted as a possible seller of a product, they are NOT accepted in terms of people actually buying this product or doctors recommending it. There is most certainly a difference between the two, it is the difference between being on a supermarket shelf ready for sale and being in peoples shopping bags on the way home. ATM is in peoples fridges, we know this, PEB is not being sold to patients in large numbers - yet, as far as we know. That would represent acceptance and we don't know if that will happen yet either. Yet somehow we value PEB the same as ATM. That doesn't sit well with me and hints at overvalue and risk.

[winner69]

Something of importance that may have been lost amongst all the fantastic news this week is the acknowledgement that PEB now have approval to sell in Spain, ref NZ Herald this morning.

The PEB website still has the status for Europe as;

“In preparation for the launch of Cxbladder in Spain through our commercial partner Oryzon, applications for CE Mark registration and compliance are currently underway”.

Please correct me if I’m wrong but this must mean PEB now have achieved CE mark registration in Europe, not a small milestone in itself for a small company located as far from Europe as can be.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11146222

Spain is antipodal to most parts of nz .....could be a good sign

[stoploss]

Hi Stoploss.....I've just started to use the DB system. I wonder if you could elaborate, particularly on the bit in bold and underlined. Before trading starts...I can see the matching occurring, but after things get underway I am not at all sure how to read the Bids and Asks columns to see the match occurring. Is my question clear ?

Cheers, RTM.
Hi, RTM, once trading is under way if you click on a stock in your watch list make sure you have the depth option selected. You should then be able to see the bids and offers for the desired stock.The last trade/ trades should be showing on the right of the screen . Once trading is up and running there is no further match as such until the close at 5 pm .So the price action is derived from participants crossing the bid/offer spread. I am sure they have an 0800 number give them a call to talk you through it if this makes no sense ...

[Southern_Belle]

All this talk of catching falling knifes,and the price moving 5.10c on the day why bother if you have invested forget the price it will go up over time CHILL-OUT.

My sentiments exactly, picked up some today & now chilling out. Also did anyone else note the comment at the end of the NZ Herald article:

"According to Darling, the next move for the company will be expanding into Asia and Europe. The move is already underway with approval to now sell in Spain, which has the highest rate of bladder cancer in the world."

Let the good times roll

[TimmyTP]

Amongst all this excitement that we have witnessed lately, I would like to take a moment to be a boring old fart, remind some of the speculators in particular what PEB is all about.

You might like to read up a little on bladder cancer (e.g. here: http://www.healthpoint.co.nz/specialists/urology/waitemata-dhb-urology-services/bladder-cancer/).

I cannot claim to have helped PEB develop their tests in any meaningful way (I believe Hancocks and others can) and I am delighted to make a profit like anyone, but I hope we not be too blinded by the prospect of $$ to remember the reason why PEB's product & services need to exist. If you are weighing up the rights issue, perhaps the best reason to take up the offer is that it is an opportunity to help make these tests more widely available (assuming you believe this is genuinely a step-change from existing procedures for patients).

End of boring old lecture!

[Dentie]

If both ATM and PEB were earning revenues of $100m, the difference would be the vast gap in profit margin between the two. A couple of dollars on a bottle of milk versus several hundred dollars on a cxbladder test.

Rather than the dramatic rise in the shareprice over the last week, I thing I would have preferred a more gradual rise over a longer period, not that I'm unhappy. But the volitility can be a little nerve racking.

However, there is one thing to keep in mind. For those who have followed this company over a long period, the shareprice has always languished around 20c, give or take fluctuations of 10c either side. By a long period I'm talking over a decade. All during that time the company has gone about its business of researching and developing products to a point where they are only now just entering markets. Until this year, and in particular the last fortnight, virtually no value has been placed on the progress the company has made in the run up to commercialsation. It's only now that the market has realised the value that has been accruing over the last ten or more years and the shareprice has finally caught up.

It also seems that cxbladder has been accepted in the US a lot faster than may have been anticipated, even by the company itself. From only having opened the Hershey lab in March, and having sales people on the ground since July, they have made their first sales and signed two major deals, with more to come. If they manage to sign up Medicare amd medicaid, and I think they probably will, then we really will be away laughing.

I agree with you here Barney....particularly about the SP now catching up with the real story and previous development etc.

Perhaps it is more accurate to say ... "cxbladder is being accepted in the US a lot faster...". But, with all the events & US "sign ups" of the past couple of weeks I think it is a no-brainer Medicare and Medicaid will also sign up very soon....just a matter of when - not if. I cannot see these two organisations denying their patients access to cxbladder when it is already being made available to well over 50 million other US citizens.

Once the two "M's" sign up (not to mention Spain and Asia etc) it will be buckle up and hold onto your hat time again....

[Dentie]

Today news....http://www.odt.co.nz/news/business/278642/pacific-edge-becomes-market-superstar

Mr Timms noted ...But what really set the market alight was an announcement on October 15 the company had reached a deal with US national provider network FedMed, a health group of 40 million Americans. The company had announced a deal with America's Choice Provider Network, a health group of 14 million Americans.

''It is great for company shareholders who have been with the company for a long time. But now the company has to show there is some financial substance behind all the announcements.''To be fair, profitability is probably some time away but Pacific Edge needs to show it is moving towards that point. The good news has to turn into dollars."


Seems overly cautious comments to me .... why would 50+ million (so far...) go through the trouble to get themselves access to cxbladder (if needed) and then those who have the symptons not purchase the product? The only reason there will not be sales is if no one presents with the necessary symptoms.

What am I missing here? Seems some are constantly looking for reasons why PEB might stumble at the final hurdle ...

Sorry Mr T... but if XRO can march to nearly $30 on their fundamentals, then PEB should easily get to $10 on theirs (both have overseas investors interested)!

[craic]

Beware of numbers. A quick visit to wikipedia explains bladder cancer and finishes with "there are an estimated 383,000 bladder cancers worldwide" If every one of those cases contributed one dollar in profit to PEB it wouldn't exactly make the financial news. Even ten dollars would not be remarkable. But then this is a test and the figure we need is the number of Americans who, for one reason or another, are tested annually, not the number who have the disease. Look around, do you know anyone who has been tested for suspected bladder cancer? I'm old enough to have been through the mill with prostrate restructuring etc. but I never heard of bladder cancer until PEB came along.

[nextbigthing]

Hey Blobbles,

You seem to like comparisons between ATM and PEB. Here's one. Imagine to drink milk you could either just drink it from a cup or you could have it I inserted into your stomach via a tube, which cost more and didn't always work. The cup option seems pretty good right?

It's a similar concept with PEB. Believe in the product, trust management and you'll realize the potential of this stock. I'd hate to have taken a short term trade out of the stock only to have to buy back in 50% dearer when they announce the next big sign ups. Too risky being out of this stock IMHO.

DYOR

Disc, hold PEB, reasearching ATM

[Slowlearna]

What are the key statistics about bladder cancer? The American Cancer Society’s estimates for bladder cancer in the United States for 2013 are:


About 72,570 new cases of bladder cancer diagnosed (about 54,610 in men and 17,960 in women).
About 15,210 deaths from bladder cancer (about 10,820 in men and 4,390 in women).

The rates of new cancers and of cancer deaths have been fairly stable in men and have been dropping slightly in women in recent years. More than 500,000 people in the United States are bladder cancer survivors.
Bladder cancer occurs mainly in older people. About 9 out of 10 people with this cancer are over the age of 55. The average age at the time of diagnosis is 73.
Men are about 3 to 4 times more likely to get bladder cancer during their lifetime than women. Overall, the chance men will develop this cancer during their life is about 1 in 26. For women, the chance is about 1 in 90. (See the next section for risk factors that can affect these chances.) Bladder cancer is the fourth most common cancer diagnosed in men.


now for My crude calculations


Population of USA = 313.9 million (2012)

PEB announcements provides possible test to 52m Americans about 16% of pop

72570 new cases of bladder cancer per year % of pop = 0.023% being diagnosed

0f PEB 52m, new cases would be 11,960.

how much do PEB charge for their service?

I understand the need for ongoing testing after being diagnosed and I have just worked on hard numbers not those who are tested and then are clear of bladder cancer which is obviously a much larger number.

[Minerbarejet]

I quickly chucked this together to estimate the future intrinsic value based on PEB's projected growth in the US. The IV calculated is for US sales only, so you could easily add a lot more to it if you take into account NZ, Aus and Spain sales, as well as their IP. You will see I have assumed NPAT is 50% of gross margin, if anyone has any figures that may be more accurate then let me know and I will chuck them in (and if you think the LT growth rates should be different).

Obviously the sales aren't certain, so the IV calculations could be very wrong. Please don't let these figures blind you, there is still a lot of risk in this stock. The SP could easily shoot down to 20 cents if things don't go to plan.

Warning: if you have a good sized holding in PEB then make sure you're sitting down before you look at the picture.

4387
From post 653 on this thread - as he says make sure you are sitting down. This is based on peb's figures. There is one slight adjustment - the first market penetration figure should be .5 not 1

[Poet]

Hi Slowlearna

I think you have forgotten that for every person who is diagnosed with Bladder Cancer (with the Cxbladder test) there will be multiple others who have the cxbladder test and are not diagnosed with Cancer.

Also, it is hard to imagine that the US market will be constrained to 54m for very long - why wouldn't medicare make this available to their policy holders given that it is considerably cheaper diagnostic test than current technology

Just a matter of time

I've doubled up at $1.50 on top of my existing holding bought at 0.59

[Twinklefingers]

Beware of numbers. A quick visit to wikipedia explains bladder cancer and finishes with "there are an estimated 383,000 bladder cancers worldwide" If every one of those cases contributed one dollar in profit to PEB it wouldn't exactly make the financial news. Even ten dollars would not be remarkable. But then this is a test and the figure we need is the number of Americans who, for one reason or another, are tested annually, not the number who have the disease. Look around, do you know anyone who has been tested for suspected bladder cancer? I'm old enough to have been through the mill with prostrate restructuring etc. but I never heard of bladder cancer until PEB came along.

I think you are seriously underestimating the situation. Millions of people present with microhematuria every year. I'm a healthy middle aged guy without cancer. I had a health checkup last year and because of a tiny amount of blood i got given the going over. I didn't hear about peb until this year but if i had i guarantee i would've forked out $500 for a test and smiled while they took my money. If that option is covered by insurance everyone given it will leap at the chance. If cxbladder becomes an integral part of a urologists tests it's going to take off.

[Schrodinger]

Some terrible analysis in here. One of the posters correctly asked how many tests are carried out each year. A good comment. Is this officially recorded? I would then run some numbers on 1%, 5, 10...etc market share then go by that figure.

I can guarantee you Americans won't pay 500 for a test without good reason.

[Poet]

Some terrible analysis in here. One of the posters correctly asked how many tests are carried out each year. A good comment. Is this officially recorded? I would then run some numbers on 1%, 5, 10...etc market share then go by that figure.

I can guarantee you Americans won't pay 500 for a test without good reason.

PEB's press release 22 October stated

One million Americans will be investigated for Bladder Cancer this year at a cost of $1 billion

[Minerbarejet]

Some terrible analysis in here. One of the posters correctly asked how many tests are carried out each year. A good comment. Is this officially recorded? I would then run some numbers on 1%, 5, 10...etc market share then go by that figure.

I can guarantee you Americans won't pay 500 for a test without good reason.
Refer post 3860 and open attachment
Hows the cat?

[Schrodinger]

Can you confirm 1m equals a test? Can this be cross checked with encumbents revenue?

PEB won't be earning 50m and have 20m profits in 2015

[Poet]

Can you confirm 1m equals a test? Can this be cross checked with encumbents revenue?

Unfortunately, I can't

I'm guessing that David Darling has a pretty good idea of the level of tests that might be expected. Has built a lab with capacity for 200K tests per annum and has several times mentioned $100m revenue

I wonder how far this company could go with it's other technologies (colorectal etc) once it has some revenues from CxBladder

[Schrodinger]

Interesting. If things go well I would expect revenue of 5m and a small profit by 2015. Best case scenario. Happy to be wrong.

[winner69]

PEB's press release 22 October stated

One million Americans will be investigated for Bladder Cancer this year at a cost of $1 billion

So that $1000 a test

Spose includes the specialists costs as all that along with the actual clinical test itself

Of the $1000 what would PEB expect to get?

[Poet]

Interesting. If things go well I would expect revenue of 5m and a small profit by 2015. Best case scenario. Happy to be wrong.

I see it more binary than this - if everything goes to best case scenario then this test will be widely used by 2015 - ramp-up will be fast. Once (and if) the diagnostic technique is accepted it will become standard. I can't see patients accepting less than the best and easiest test available.

Of course if the test isn't actually the best and easiest then it probably won't get much take-up at all.

I'm just saying I don't see a half/half scenario - it's either all or nothing in my mind (and the decision point won't take long to reach)

[winner69]

Somebody on the DIL thread said he reckon the body language of Sodi the CEO said a lot about how DIl was really going (at a ASM)

We will have to do with random images of Mr Darling from Google to see what Darling is really saying about the future prospects of PEB

What you reckon

[AndyLP]

I wish one could filter the PEB thread by user. Much respect MAC, thanks for taking the time to post this.

[winner69]

I wish one could filter the PEB thread by user. Much respect MAC, thanks for taking the time to post this.

You can mate .... go to the Search Thread function (at the top of the thread)

Advanced search by User

[mcdongle]

To increase your sales staff from 4 to 20 immediately must show some degree of confidence ?

[AndyLP]

You can mate .... go to the Search Thread function (at the top of the thread)

Advanced search by User

Ah ha! I had had trouble with the ST search in the past - this works great. Thx winner

[blobbles]

You will notice that I do not always bag PEB, I just want people to realise that to sell CxBladder a doctor has to know about CxBladder, understanding it's use and benefits before recommending it to their clients as a replacement for a tried and true test they have been doing for a long time. There is a reason PEB are asking for more money for sales people and it is to try and achieve this. Just because people have access to the product does not mean they know everything about it. Right now the SP assumes about 7% penetration (that is actual sales) in the US market when most doctors probably haven't even heard of CxBladder.

But if they are successful, I recommend people read my previous posts and those by others about the market size and potential. I posted my analysis quite a few pages back which had confirmed market size in the US (1.85 million tests a year) and assumed impact IF successful. The numbers are astonishing.

[94dj]

hey! i was wondering whether the market at these levels (market cap 400 million, worth more than DIL lol ) has already priced in further good announcements (ie/more client agreements) and/or modest sales and further news will just result in SP stagnation (like what happened after PEBs run in late 2012/early 2013 and it stayed constant despite CLIA approval, DHB signups, etc. until we get significant sales buildup later next year

Discl. holder from 57c soldout at 155c but looking to get back in :)

[barney]

http://www.3news.co.nz/Kiwi-biotech-company-gets-major-US-contracts/tabid/412/articleID/318599/Default.aspx

In case anyone missed it.

[CJ]

T
1. David Darling recently stating that the company should be profitable in 2014. The previous advice from the AGM was 2015.


There was an article this week that said with the new sales staff, the might not reach profitability in 2014, but the $100m revenue should come up earlier.

To copy Rod, they are preparing isn't to "get up on the foils".

[benjitara]

I liked a couple of things about the capital raising presentation in particular.
Firstly the fact that two other nz based dhb's have completed the user programmes and are now finalising "commercial terms". this surely means a positive announcement in the near future. and the fact that the test is being used in triage under a "value proposition" basis, if this use is seen as a valid use of the product then that indicates further scope for the product.

While I still think sales numbers will be small in the coming months PEB is consistently preparing the way for cxbladder to be a success in their target markets.
I also think capturing market share in the usa will be hard but if they do it'll be a quick ride into the clouds for a company who seem to have their ducks all in a row at the moment.

[Minerbarejet]

I liked a couple of things about the capital raising presentation in particular.
Firstly the fact that two other nz based dhb's have completed the user programmes and are now finalising "commercial terms". this surely means a positive announcement in the near future. and the fact that the test is being used in triage under a "value proposition" basis, if this use is seen as a valid use of the product then that indicates further scope for the product.

While I still think sales numbers will be small in the coming months PEB is consistently preparing the way for cxbladder to be a success in their target markets.
I also think capturing market share in the usa will be hard but if they do it'll be a quick ride into the clouds for a company who seem to have their ducks all in a row at the moment.
I hope they only have about 200 tests like Mac says which will drive the share price under 1.00
Currently looking for a better cave
Happy Labour Weekend ( if there is such a thing)

[CJ]

While I still think sales numbers will be small in the coming months PEB is consistently preparing the way for cxbladder to be a success in their target markets.
Remember that unless they decide to give additional guidance, the announcement will only be for the 6 months to the end of September, before all the announced signings. Therefore they will be small

Hopefully they do give more guidance on how they expect them to be over the following 6 - 18 m period.

[barney]

Radio live, Andrew Patterson's business programe. Interview with David Darling in about 20 minutes. Should be interesting.

[Xerof]

the last couple of lines from an ODT article on Saturday.


There were more deals to come as the company kept ''chipping away''. Some deals took a while to get signed.



Sounds like only the paperwork to be tidied up on these......

I'm not prepared to sell and hope for a lower entry

TA-wise, this is showing early signs of a flag or pennant, before resuming progress in the same direction as PA has entered

http://www.odt.co.nz/news/business/278642/pacific-edge-becomes-market-superstar

theory below

[Dentie]

Radio live, Andrew Patterson's business programe. Interview with David Darling in about 20 minutes. Should be interesting.

reinforcing we're onto a good company - but oh, those big long techie words.....

2 new products to market next year

David is onto it ... very confident with their modelling

Those who aren't in soon may miss another big push in my view

oh dear - not happy to hear of circling vultures already though but David very wary of maximising s/holder value

[barney]

What a great interview. If anyone wants to learn about the history behind the company and cxbladder, go have a listen. It will certainly dispel any doubts about the technology and PEB being the latest fad investment.

[psychic]

Thanks Barney - well spotted. He is a great ambassador for the Company eh.

[gloworm]

Link to the Radio Live interview, thanks barney for the heads up!

http://www.radiolive.co.nz/Jacob-Darling---CEO-Pacific-Edge/tabid/506/articleID/38613/Default.aspx

[goldfish]

Indeed, thanks for the heads up was worth listening to.
Id still like it to drop more before buying more, pointless selling some at 150 just to buy back in later at 150, well except it takes some risk off for a while.
Looking to buy more if it gets closer to 110-130 or ill just wait for another announcement and of course pick up some at 55 during the capital raising.

[craic]

Somebody on the DIL thread said he reckon the body language of Sodi the CEO said a lot about how DIl was really going (at a ASM)

We will have to do with random images of Mr Darling from Google to see what Darling is really saying about the future prospects of PEB

What you reckon
Is this Daany Kaye or Jimmie Durante - I can't quit work it out?

[Microsloth]

Reinforced for me the quality of the company and leadership, great to see all this come out of Otago Uni & med school.

David / Jacob a great front person for a great company and team of talented individuals .

Looking forward to the story continuing and benefiting people living with cancer.

[Nigel]

What's with the "Jacob Darling" title on the story? And the description by the interviewer of Pacific Edge as a "recent market debutante"? As for David, he was great - really knows his stuff, tells a great story, mentions 2 new products in market next year and likens the SP performance to that of Xero (can't hurt). Bring on Tuesday!

[biker]

Thanks Barney and Gloworm. Great to hear the back story and hear it reinforced that cxbladder is just the very beginning commercially for PEB. The share price may fluctuate a bit around these levels for a while but if even some of what is projected eventuates 1.50 + or - will turn out to be incredibly good value.

Disc. Hold quite a few so I'm biased.

[geo]

[QUOTE=nextbigthing;436450]Hey Blobbles,

You seem to like comparisons between ATM and PEB. Here's one. Imagine to drink milk you could either just drink it from a cup or you could have it I inserted into your stomach via a tube, which cost more and didn't always work. The cup option seems pretty good right?
Hi Nextbigthing. About 18 months ago I held ATM and Peb to good growth companys held far more stock in ATM and was content. But all the negative news started to come about milk products namely baby formula, and the problems with Fontera which had nothing to do with ATM but still had an effect on the sp, so I did far more research on PEB and came to the conclusion that Peb had far more potential and hardly any competition so sold out of ATM and loaded into PEB with no regrets.

[janner]

Is this Daany Kaye or Jimmie Durante - I can't quit work it out?

Hahaa.. Me either.. Has the hair.. Also the Snozze

[janner]

but David very wary of maximising s/holder value

I hope you really mean aware.. :-))

[Dentie]

I hope you really mean aware.. :-))


ummm...I certainly do ... there was a reason I never ever got invited to the school spelling bee!

[winner69]

ummm...I certainly do ... there was a reason I never ever got invited to the school spelling bee!


Surely it was the stupid predictive / auto-correction thingie that keeps changing things

[craic]

Just to keep things in perspective. 260 pages of comments on a share that has never returned a single cent in dividends and is unlikely to for the next two years. Some posters commented on the hype and others defended the company against this claim - but the hype is not coming from the company, it's coming from over-enthusiastic posters who seem to be putting this company up ther with Coca Cola and Microsoft and the like. Its a company that has perfected a test for a form of cancer that affects just one third of a million people worldwide and may develop other equally exciting tests -with a lot of the profit they make from the present test. If I was a lot younger, a couple of grand or so, put in and forgotten for two or three years might be a reasonable investment. In the present situation, trading - buying and selling several times a day or week would be the most effective way of making money on this one but you can't do this on a penny-ante basis - you need some capital, and steel balls. I go to Church about ten or twelve times a year, how often do you go?

[winner69]

Just to keep things in perspective. 260 pages of comments on a share that has never returned a single cent in dividends and is unlikely to for the next two years. .......


Craic. .....should have said 'a share that has annual sales that a corner dairy would do in a week"

Heck man ......you will burnt at the stake for those comments .....ha ha

But a good balanced view anyway and puts things in perspective eh

[barney]

Just to keep things in perspective. 260 pages of comments on a share that has never returned a single cent in dividends and is unlikely to for the next two years. Some posters commented on the hype and others defended the company against this claim - but the hype is not coming from the company, it's coming from over-enthusiastic posters who seem to be putting this company up ther with Coca Cola and Microsoft and the like. Its a company that has perfected a test for a form of cancer that affects just one third of a million people worldwide and may develop other equally exciting tests -with a lot of the profit they make from the present test. If I was a lot younger, a couple of grand or so, put in and forgotten for two or three years might be a reasonable investment. In the present situation, trading - buying and selling several times a day or week would be the most effective way of making money on this one but you can't do this on a penny-ante basis - you need some capital, and steel balls. I go to Church about ten or twelve times a year, how often do you go?

I think everyone is entitled to their view and some have expressed a view that they think some hype has come into play, which is fair enough. But those shareholders who have been in for the long haul know the company fairly well and aren't claiming it to be something it's not.

As for hype. If I wanted to believe in some serious hype, I'd go and worship the invisible man in the sky.Now
that's real hype.

[craic]

I think everyone is entitled to their view and some have expressed a view that they think some hype has come into play, which is fair enough. But those shareholders who have been in for the long haul know the company fairly well and aren't claiming it to be something it's not.

As for hype. If I wanted to believe in some serious hype, I'd go and worship the invisible man in the sky.Now
that's real hype.
Go and look at the WDT site and you will get some idea of what can be done with hype. As to the invisible man in the sky, I don't waste my time on that either - you have done what people are doing with this share, jumping to conclusions and making mountains out of molehills. A clue - I never know which church it will be, catholic, presbyterian, anglican or bush-baptist - and its rarely on a sunday. the service yesterday was non-denominational.

[barney]

Go and look at the WDT site and you will get some idea of what can be done with hype. As to the invisible man in the sky, I don't waste my time on that either - you have done what people are doing with this share, jumping to conclusions and making mountains out of molehills. A clue - I never know which church it will be, catholic, presbyterian, anglican or bush-baptist - and its rarely on a sunday. the service yesterday was non-denominational.

I don't recall anyone comparing PEB to Microsoft or Coca Cola, that would be jumping to conclusions.

[MAC]

Just to keep things in perspective. 260 pages of comments on a share that has never returned a single cent in dividends and is unlikely to for the next two years. Some posters commented on the hype and others defended the company against this claim - but the hype is not coming from the company, it's coming from over-enthusiastic posters who seem to be putting this company up ther with Coca Cola and Microsoft and the like. Its a company that has perfected a test for a form of cancer that affects just one third of a million people worldwide and may develop other equally exciting tests -with a lot of the profit they make from the present test. If I was a lot younger, a couple of grand or so, put in and forgotten for two or three years might be a reasonable investment. In the present situation, trading - buying and selling several times a day or week would be the most effective way of making money on this one but you can't do this on a penny-ante basis - you need some capital, and steel balls. I go to Church about ten or twelve times a year, how often do you go?

It may be hard for some to appreciate or comprehend that a humble New Zealand company can develop a technology that is literally leading the world in its field.

But, just because such a company has the potential to become a successful global player in biotech is no reason to knock the company for being just at the beginning of a roll out and ramp up plan.

PEB are on track with their roll out strategy, not behind, not ahead, and both the company and those who have researched the company appreciate that what lays ahead is potentially a ramp up commensurate with that of a global player in the biotech sector.

I would have preferred that the media had discovered the company long ago, but if hype means the media are celebrating the success of the company and management thus far then so be it, it’s well deserved.

Most long term investors and posters on this thread appreciate that sales figures are presently where they should be against the companies commercialisation plan and that the HY14 report in one month’s time will have only around a couple of hundred sales. That’s not hype either.

[Intel]

Everyone,

Congrats to all holders over the past few weeks. It has been a fantastic time for all!

I have used snippets of info from this forum over time, so thought I would put down a few notes of my own. Everybody on this Forum knows about the past history of PEB, successes etc but not a lot has been discussed about the US healthcare market for diagnostic tools so I wanted people to discuss the future issues that PEB will face instead of going to and from about whether they will make there 100m sales in 5 years and eliminate peoples forced beliefs in managements predictions as they have no informative basis to disagree with them.

I have been doing a fair chunk of reading over the past few days, trying to establish exactly what the relationships with FedMed and Americas choice mean for CXbladder. Unfortunately they do not mean a lot in my opinion as PEB still needs to get payer reimbursement for CX Bladder to become mainstream. Although these organizations can provide access to CXbladder for Payers which are out of network, they ultimately have no ability to create sales.

I will share with you some readings I have gone through that I strongly advise you to read. Particularly those that will be long term holders of PEB (like myself)

The first is a report completed in 2010 by a company called Health Advances. This was a consulting piece regarding reimbursement for diagnostics. Oncotype Dx, which I have mentioned before is prevalent in the text as a case study. The most interesting thing I found in this report was the rate at which Oncotype DX covered its respective market, the correlation was almost perfect with the % of covered lives (or % of their target market which was covered by insurers) increasing in step with coverage, so basically it became fully utilized by everyone that it was available too. The second important variable to keep in mind is that it took 4 years from the first payer (Kaiser Permanante) to get 90% of coverage. That is exceptionally quick and is something I always thought about CX bladder, 100m in 5 years (rough market share of say 10%) seemed too slow and I was of the belief that as payers approve the product we should see a much quicker uptake as patients 'hopefully' demand it. This is a very good read for those new to the US health care reimbursement structure. (be it old, and a lot has changed)

http://www.healthadvances.com/pdf/novel_diag_reimbursement.pdf

The second piece which is also interesting, and is an advancement from the first article, is the complete change in diagnostic reimbursement, I am still yet to ascertain what implications this has on CX bladder. The one thing that is good however, is there is a structured system for product reimbursement. There is 1 very important company that PEB has to deal with (actually there are 10) but the first is the most influential as often the other 9 just go with what number 1 says.

Palmetto GBA - http://www.palmettogba.com/palmetto/MolDX.nsf/DocsCatHome/MolDx

This company was established in 2011 and is responsible for reimbursement setting of genetic diagnostic tools. If CX bladder is to be covered by Medicare (the important US health care insurer of over 65's) then i assume it will have to pass the grade from Palmetto GBA. This in my opinion is an important to deal to watch for. They will perform a true economic feasability study of CX bladder and establish a reimbursement rate which is comensurate with the value add (so lets hope that CX bladder does eliminate the need for everything, Cytology, fish, TURBT, NMp 22, ultrasound, x-ray, follow up cytoscopies etc). The more it can replace, the greater the value

I was thinking of heading into work to run some numbers as I cant do it on my ipad but payer reimbursement is the single most important step towards PEB being successful.The feasibility study (or as we know them user programs) are a crucial part of product uptake and in the US, user programs are performed by offering discounted products with the aim of full reimbursement once the product has been validated. The discount to total reimbursement value is something I am unsure of also but gives a little bit of upside to PEB's cashflows in the first few years.. ( I hope)


The next is a presentation detailing the new structure for reimbursement of genetic diagnostics. This is sort of a follow on from the 2010 report where recommendations for change were submitted. Having standardised codes in the US makes it a lot easier for individual payers to include CX bladder, and should hopefully see a hastened uptake by all payers in the US. This is the link with Palmetto GBA and their importance in setting a reimbursement code that everyone can rely on.

https://www.acmg.net/docs/ACMG_2013_Molecular_Pathology_Rate-Setting_Guide.pdf

The next thing I am unsure of, the $ amount that PEB are claiming they can receive from CX-bladder, Hancocks will probably know, Is it code stacked? Or is the code, miscellaneous and created by PEB themselves..

List of current new, Molecular Pathology codes and reimbursment prices

http://www.palmettogba.com/Palmetto/Providers.Nsf/files/MoPath_Claims_Submission_Guidelines.pdf/$File/MoPath_Claims_Submission_Guidelines.pdf

This is another great presentation by health advances. For the math nuts out there, slide 26 is the correct way to determine economic feasibility of a product. Something I will be tackling once I can get all the reimbursement cost information.

http://moleculardiagnostics-cancer.com/uploads/files/1086/Kristin_Pothier.pdf

Well thats my 10 cents anyway. More research to come, particularly in regards to what genetic markers are currenlty covered by medicare and how cxbladders efficacy compares to those!


Enjoy labour day everyone

[Minerbarejet]

Excellent post, Intel.
More grist for the mill so to speak.
We await further news from you.
Interesting article at Cellmid.co.au that covers their involvement with PEB.
Plus the moose is back!
See above post 3905

[winner69]

PEB being driven by one man .....whats Darling's record of successfully commercialising science ....not just bringing it to market but making zillions from it

My read to maximise shareholder returns he be looking at who can buy them out

[blobbles]

Great post Intel. The difference I feel between Oncotype DX and CxBladder is that the former was a new test giving information not accessible by any current means. Basically there was no way before to quantify if a person was likely to have their breast cancer reoccur or the effect chemotherapy would have. CxBladder though is to be marketed and used in most cases an adjunct to the current method or as a replacement, to tell the physician what they have been fairly reliably able to pick up on another test (cystoscopy). As such, I aren't sure you can compare the two in terms of how fast they attain market share. Effectively CxBladder is going up against an incumbent method which is understood better by doctors and relies on their skills. Sure it may be cheaper, but we might find it is only used as an adjunct in cases where the doctor suspects cancer.

I think I read that 5% of people that present with blood in their urine end up having bladder cancer, which is why the incidence level is so low, as craic stated. This may mean that cystoscopy is still used to check for other causes anyway, in the Doctors mind making CxBladder less functional as it doesn't give results indicating cystitis, over active bladder, prostate problems or other causes of blood in urine. At this point I need a doctor or urologist to confirm though! But if this is the case, it may be that CxBladder only gets used for a portion of the 1.85 million tests done every year in the US. Or it could mean it is used for everyone presenting with hematuria but subsequently used only on the 5% for monitoring.

Maybe someone could ask a doctor?

[craic]

With just short of 4000 shares I reckon a bit of trading is on the cards. Will watch the market closely tomorrow but there are an awful lot of sellers at the 149cps mark at present. I'm sure the long weekend will produce a new line of hopeful buyers.

[Dentie]

PEB being driven by one man .....whats Darling's record of successfully commercialising science ....not just bringing it to market but making zillions from it

My read to maximise shareholder returns he be looking at who can buy them out

I disagree. Only yesterday on the radio interview when asked about possible takeover offers Mr Darling stated they had already received one and "we managed to survive by the skin of our teeth". This is not the type of attitude or talk from someone who might be looking for a takeover offer. His tone sounded relieved and happy about that outcome. He has on several occasions stated about wanting to look after the shareholders - as they had been patient and been happy to re-capitalise PEB as they have gone through the commercialisation process etc and, given how easily the shareholders are providing the funds required to grow the firm, I think he & the Board would recommend to decline any potential buyers. I am impressed with David Darling (& his colleagues) in all respects, he is genuine and he lets the product do the talking... as opposed to rampaging through the market & talking up the product. To repeat other posters.... PEB has met all their targets and budgets and signups. In my view, it would only be an unexpected calamity that would prevent PEB from reaching (& exceeding) its earnings targets from here. I wouldn't be surprised if the sales figures next month don't surprise all of us!

Disc: Happily holding a large (ish) amount and looking for more.

[Minerbarejet]

Cellmid has gone rocketship today as well. Up 24% - maybe as the ASX is open and we arent do I detect something coming our way again or is it just a late reaction as everyone finally registers the connection.
ASX:CDY
Cheers

[Dentie]

Cellmid has gone rocketship today as well. Up 24% - maybe as the ASX is open and we arent do I detect something coming our way again or is it just a late reaction as everyone finally registers the connection.
ASX:CDY
Cheers

Gee, glad to be heavily in here too Miner ....

[blakecb]

Cellmid has gone rocketship today as well. Up 24% - maybe as the ASX is open and we arent do I detect something coming our way again or is it just a late reaction as everyone finally registers the connection.
ASX:CDY
Cheers

I was pretty gutted as I sold out on open this morning thinking most of the lift from PEB had finished. The market can be a tempestuous mistress. I really don't understand the rise for CDY today, as people are well aware of the connection to PEB - CDY have highlighted it of late in their investment update. Soo....I'm at a loss to explain it unless we will get a good announcement in the morning, or CDY are sitting on a very good announcement or....that's just the way the market is sometimes....

[janner]

I was pretty gutted as I sold out on open this morning thinking most of the lift from PEB had finished. The market can be a tempestuous mistress. I really don't understand the rise for CDY today, as people are well aware of the connection to PEB - CDY have highlighted it of late in their investment update. Soo....I'm at a loss to explain it unless we will get a good announcement in the morning, or CDY are sitting on a very good announcement or....that's just the way the market is sometimes....

Who knows... :-))

Stick to the old proven adages !!..

[Minerbarejet]

I was pretty gutted as I sold out on open this morning thinking most of the lift from PEB had finished. The market can be a tempestuous mistress. I really don't understand the rise for CDY today, as people are well aware of the connection to PEB - CDY have highlighted it of late in their investment update. Soo....I'm at a loss to explain it unless we will get a good announcement in the morning, or CDY are sitting on a very good announcement or....that's just the way the market is sometimes....
Sold a few myself thinking it had run out of steam but this take off has me eagerly awaiting 10.00am here -as usual.
Cheers

[blobbles]

Sold a few myself thinking it had run out of steam but this take off has me eagerly awaiting 10.00am here -as usual.
Cheers

Forgive me for any possible ignorance, but shouldn't CDY share bumps follow PEB share bumps in only one direction? Confused as to why CDY jumps would ever indicate PEB bumps... unless some sort of insider trading is going on?

[Minerbarejet]

Forgive me for any possible ignorance, but shouldn't CDY share bumps follow PEB share bumps in only one direction? Confused as to why CDY jumps would ever indicate PEB bumps... unless some sort of insider trading is going on?think we have a chicken/egg situation, CDY arent exactly slack bunnies themselves if PEB found their marker good enough to be included in cxbladder, some pretty positive sentiment in that Oct newsletter from CDY.
They have some good stuff if you end up pulling all your hair out too.:)

[etrader]

Snapiti when you say signing up the big boys are there larger networks than say the 40 mill they first signed up with ? There clearly is huge savings for insurance firms with a two thirds reduction vs regular methods.

[winner69]

Risky stuff selling PEB and hoping to buy back cheaper.
The stock now has gained greater investor awareness(due to the media) and an announcement of signing up the big boys in the US health insurance world is coming (could be tommoro could be 2 months away) but the shares will reach a new high when the announcement comes.

Agree snapiti .....PEB is announcement driven

Who knows when the announcements will come.

[winner69]

How's the depth building up after a day off?

Another bid day coming?

[TimmyTP]

How's the depth building up after a day off?

Another bid day coming?
Early doors, but doesn't look like much of a bid day or an ask day so far - likely to open around Friday's close if all stays as it is.

[GR8DAY]

......SP heading south as expected (natural cycle).......company now highly "de-risked", current SP however highly "risked" (huge profits sitting there to be realized).....happy to watch at these levels......any panic selling and we're back to a buck.......IMHO.

[Dentie]

... down 7c. Perhaps a mix of traders realising not a lot more there (for now!!) as well as other holders selling in order to fund their 55c rights issue.

[Wolf]

1.39 bounce it seems.

[Balance]

1.39 bounce it seems.

Big buyers sitting in the wings, soaking up the stock as the traders panic out?

[gv1]

Big buyers sitting in the wings, soaking up the stock as the traders panic out?

Yes looks like o'seas funds. local holders cashing out for meridian . I am not selling for one.

[Wolf]

Hope so, nothing to show for it in the depth though. Looks like another retest off 1.39 about to happen not looking good. If it drops through 1.39 we could see panic selling down to 1.3 and downward from there

Stop losses may be getting hit? I was pretty close to setting one at 1.39.

And 1.39 was just broken..

[Mista_Trix]

I don't think it reflects badly on the company, its just that it has overextended and is correcting healthily until the next announcement ... which will come who knows when, we'll probably see a little more slide until the close out date.

[skid]

The way this share swings it seems a bad candidate for a stop loss--but i guess the only other alternative is constant monitoring or complete faith

[skid]

Whooooaaaaaaaa....

[Wolf]

Small bounce off 1.35 but sellers are drying up. I reckon it could go lower but is being oversold. I might buy more at closing and tomorrow

[777]

Pulled a buy order at 131 this morning. Looking for a lower point to top up.

[Toasty]

The way this share swings it seems a bad candidate for a stop loss--but i guess the only other alternative is constant monitoring or complete faith

Constant monitoring works for me. The alternative is I might actually do some work.

[pierre]

Thought I might get some work done today too - but now I also have to constantly monitor BLT!

PEB heading south while BLT goes north. Fortunately I have enough of each to counterbalance the effect on my portfolio balance - but would be nice if they were both headed towards the Arctic.

[GR8DAY]

.......yep BLT doing PEB following on from VML but also being chased by WDT........all of which I own!! (in for another good week)

[False Profit]

I wanted to sell at 150c as the sell down was bound to occur. I didn't do it as I've not got the cash flow to reinvest until the revenue made from my selling is in my account. Can't afford to wait for that so I'm in for the long haul...

[False Profit]

what broker are you with.
my broker lets me trade with funds from shares I have just sold(with in minutes)
hi snapiti,
I'm with DB. I'll give them a shout and see their thoughts...

[robbo24]

hi snapiti,
I'm with DB. I'll give them a shout and see their thoughts...

Do as many trades as you like (even across days) then call them up and ask to 'net settle' the whole thing.

DB will aggregate the transactions and send you a bill or the money.

[False Profit]

You should change to DB mate. I've been trading this thing up and down with them and you don't have to worry about the $ clearing.

EDIT - sorry just read the more recent posts... yup you should check it out, but how about clicking on "my accounts" and then "balances" you should see a number under "trading balance" which should update in real time.

You boys make it worthwhile getting up, you really do :t_up:

[craic]

I was about to say, you can trade up or down several times a day - soon as a sell or buy is confirmed. You have to wait 3 or 4 working days to clear to draw money out but otherwise its ok. In my case every time I press that button for my main block DB get in the region of $170 so they don't mind if I trade 20 times in the one day. But its seldom more than one or two in any given day. Watch the balance in Portfolio page as they seem to double everything you've got at the bottom.

[NZSilver]

I don't think it reflects badly on the company, its just that it has overextended and is correcting healthily until the next announcement ... which will come who knows when, we'll probably see a little more slide until the close out date.

Yep I agree, sit steady and worry about finding some cash for the rights issue or top up if you have and extra $ lying around. To hard to play the trading game and a high risk of an announcement coming out - the price shooting up and therefore losing greater gains than if you mucked around trading cents here and there.

[skid]

Its not necessarily a 1 way street now that its at these levels.
No one knows yet what the profitability is yet regardless of announcements.
Those that have sold some to carry free shares are the smart ones IMHO

[Whipmoney]

Yep I agree, sit steady and worry about finding some cash for the rights issue or top up if you have and extra $ lying around. To hard to play the trading game and a high risk of an announcement coming out - the price shooting up and therefore losing greater gains than if you mucked around trading cents here and there.

I'm still struggling to comprehend why everybody thinks the rights issue is a free lunch? All things being equal the company simply raises more cash by diluting its existing stock holding and therefore the increased value of the firm is simply divided by a larger number of shares. It seems like a zero sum game to be.. Overall there shouldn't be a gain to those who purchase the rights unless they get more of the subscription at the expense of those who don't take it up.

The only scenario in which the rights holders should benefit is if the market believes the rights issue is value adding.. i.e. that the new cash can be used to expedite sales growth which is true but to be fair anyone who enters ex-issue can enjoy this upside anyway.'

Maybe someone can explain it to me?

[Xerof]

Classic PA - backfilling slightly as the amateur punters can't resist the 'fear' of missing a profit.

The contra, of course, is they very rarely cut losses.

suggest a listen to Darlings interview, and note a few of the salient points:

~~ we avoided a T/O by the skin of our teeth
~~ the 'you beaut' moments
~~ reafirmation of the 100m gross revenue target as 'do-able'
~~ the comment re CR being a 'reward' for the guys who have been in from the early days (Us newcomers are able to participate in that reward too)

Whipmoney, correct, it is a zero sum game in theory, but don't you think Darling is intimating something beyond the immediate horizon?

[Cricketfan]

I'm still struggling to comprehend why everybody thinks the rights issue is a free lunch? All things being equal the company simply raises more cash by diluting its existing stock holding and therefore the increased value of the firm is simply divided by a larger number of shares. It seems like a zero sum game to be.. Overall there shouldn't be a gain to those who purchase the rights unless they get more of the subscription at the expense of those who don't take it up.

The only scenario in which the rights holders should benefit is if the market believes the rights issue is value adding.. i.e. that the new cash can be used to expedite sales growth which is true but to be fair anyone who enters ex-issue can enjoy this upside anyway.'

Maybe someone can explain it to me?

Newbie here, but my understanding is the shares you buy at 55c can be sold at market rates, so therefore unless the SP falls to 55c or less then you'd be benefiting.

[Whipmoney]

Classic PA - backfilling slightly as the amateur punters can't resist the 'fear' of missing a profit.

At 1.52m shares traded today I suspect this is more than amatuer punters profit taking.. rather it's likely to be the case that the stock overshot itself and is now entering a corrective phase.

DISC: not holding.

[CJ]

Newbie here, but my understanding is the shares you buy at 55c can be sold at market rates, so therefore unless the SP falls to 55c or less then you'd be benefiting.The share price will be expected to fall in the ratio of 2/15 - there is no free lunch.

[Whipmoney]

Newbie here, but my understanding is the shares you buy at 55c can be sold at market rates, so therefore unless the SP falls to 55c or less then you'd be benefiting.

I get that but thereotically the market should respond by discounting the share price by roughly 2/15ths in order to account for the dilution effect.

[Cricketfan]

I get that but thereotically the market should respond by discounting the share price by roughly 2/15ths in order to account for the dilution effect.

Yeah but assuming the SP was $1.35, reducing it by 2/15ths would take it down to $1.17. So as long as the discounted SP is more than 55c it's still beneficial, isn't it?

Edit: Sorry I see what you mean now - the existing shares are reduced in value, so the 'discount' at buying at 55c really only makes up for that.

[zymwh]

If the sp is 135c, the sp after dilution should be 126c

[Whipmoney]

Yeah but assuming the SP was $1.35, reducing it by 2/15ths would take it down to $1.17. So as long as the discounted SP is more than 55c it's still beneficial, isn't it?

Yeah but all of your other shares at $1.35 have been discounted by 2/15th's making you no better off.

[Wolf]

If it falls through 1.3 i think theres going to be alot of panic selling.

[blobbles]

Yeah but all of your other shares at $1.35 have been discounted by 2/15th's making you no better off.

Exactly, that is the salient point that people often can't see!

[blobbles]

1.30's up, anyone up for low 20's or late teens tomorrow?

[Wolf]

1.30's up, anyone up for low 20's or late teens tomorrow?

1.30 not up yet blobbles, just had a bounce.

[winner69]

1.30's up, anyone up for low 20's or late teens tomorrow?

Why not talk it down to sub dollar ...that be interesting

[blobbles]

Why not talk it down to sub dollar ...that be interesting

Just pointing out the trend, not very happy about the big red down arrows on my portfolio today but was to be expected after a 200% rise in a few days last week.

As I said before, fair and optimistic value right now with risk built in, in my opinion, is $1-$1.20, so I wouldn't be surprised if it hits that point in the coming days. Although I do see potential for a drop to around 80c over the next few months, particularly because people will freak out if the sales announcement is low. All us long termers EXPECT the sales announcement to be low, but I aren't sure new investors will be quite so accepting.

[Leftfield]

1.30's up, anyone up for low 20's or late teens tomorrow?

The short term is hardly an issue, I'm in for the longer haul on this babe.

(Disc - holding)

[JohnnyTheHorse]

Why not talk it down to sub dollar ...that be interesting

Sure would. Looks like mostly retail buyers around right now - no one big to speak of. If it hits $1.29 then I'd be expecting to see some stop losses triggered. The key areas to watch will be $1, $1.20 and $1.30 in my opinion.

Disc: If I can buy back in at $1 I will be very chuffed.

[robbo24]

When is that sales announcement due? 1 week? 2 weeks?

[blobbles]

The short term is hardly an issue, I'm in for the longer haul on this babe.

(Disc - holding)

And that is the attitude I encourage! But short term traders and nervous nellies are controlling the price at the moment it seems which will see it drop.

@1.50 about 7% US market share was built into the price by my calculations, which if PEB sticks to its 5 year $100 million USD revenue goal, would be about 3-4 years away. I can't imagine pricing in 3-4 years worth of growth at this point considering sales aren't even confirmed and results from user programs are unknown. Still too much risk.

[JohnnyTheHorse]

When is that sales announcement due? 1 week? 2 weeks?

End of November. Remember that there will likely be very few sales as it will only cover their first three months of selling in the US. I wouldn't expect the price to move because of it.

[whatsup]

The share price will be expected to fall in the ratio of 2/15 - there is no free lunch.

CJ, this is such a small cash issue it hardly mattersnow as the original intention of PEB was to have the issue when the S Price was .65-.80 c but events overtook it.

[GR8DAY]

well if i can buy back in at .80 that would be great but that price wont last long... if it ever comes up again...highly unlikely


......never say never in this game SS. It would only take something to spook the market and WHAMO! your back to that price b4 you can say "David WAS a Darling"!!

[blobbles]

well that would be wonderful!!! id buy in again ... sold at 154..

I see you are part of the problem, not part of the solution steve :):p

[blobbles]

Eeek, the bid side has shrunk and there isn't significant support showing... 1.25, 1.21, 1.20... yet the ask side is enormous...

Smells terrible. If I had an ounce of sense I guess I would have done a steve and been part of the problem then bought in at lower levels. Damn all you short termers, in the nicest possible way :):p

[skid]

The short term is hardly an issue, I'm in for the longer haul on this babe.

(Disc - holding)

And at 80c Ill be right there with you LF:)

[robbo24]

deleted new thread robbo , very pleased to see this stock retracing it share price... i like to see stock priced with some common sense..

;) I got out at 154 cents too, happy to buy back in at some point as well.

[robbo24]

It bounced off 118/120 cents after the rights issue announcement - if it drops past that I wonder where it will end up?

[blobbles]

sorry about that... but our holding was so small that it made no impact on trading...

yes we turn over millions a year but only in stocks that can handle that with ease... SKC, FPH, FBU, WBC, KIP ect

you wont see us doing anything here that effects its stock price..

Apology partially accepted :p

Looks like a lot of people listened to me, damn them, realised that it was overvalued at $1.50 on current news. You fools!

Why do I run my mouth off to shoot myself in the foot? Habit of a lifetime I suppose... probably wasn't me actually, just regular trading behaviour thinking about it. Ahhh well, if it ends up hitting 80c like Skid expects I guess I will still be looking at an 80% or so capital increase on purchase price... still it looked much nicer at 300%+. Sparky probably had an average buy of around 30-40c I reckon so he was probably pretty chuffed at 60c!

[blobbles]

It bounced off 118/120 cents after the rights issue announcement - if it drops past that I wonder where it will end up?


Next major support was @77-78c wasn't it? Eeek, perish the thought... YOU WILL NOT GO DOWN THAT FAR PEB SP!!! DO YOU HEAR ME???

[blobbles]

Nobody buying @$1.23... gahhh...

[whatsup]

Apology partially accepted :p

Looks like a lot of people listened to me, damn them, realised that it was overvalued at $1.50 on current news. You fools!

Why do I run my mouth off to shoot myself in the foot? Habit of a lifetime I suppose... probably wasn't me actually, just regular trading behaviour thinking about it. Ahhh well, if it ends up hitting 80c like Skid expects I guess I will still be looking at an 80% or so capital increase on purchase price... still it looked much nicer at 300%+. Sparky probably had an average buy of around 30-40c I reckon so he was probably pretty chuffed at 60c!

Nothing to do with you, D Ters having to pay up, have a look at the volumn from them, with out the churn whats left is the amount that has to be sold to get to flat line volumn, we may go lower yet but it will settle and rebuild, this story is genuine and good, we will have further announcements from the company that will send it off again but not to the same extent price or volumn wise, Rome was not .....!

[blobbles]

I am... average purchase price now 32c.

Dang, that's awesome!

I spotted the company when it was @20c from advice from a friend, so started researching it. A couple of months later when I had convinced myself the price had jumped to 40c! That was my first buy in, but should have been before, dang.

Are the incredibly low SP asks now from peoples stop loss's triggering?

4958

[warthog]

Dang, that's awesome!

I spotted the company when it was @20c from advice from a friend, so started researching it. A couple of months later when I had convinced myself the price had jumped to 40c! That was my first buy in, but should have been before, dang.

Are the incredibly low SP asks now from peoples stop loss's triggering?

4958

No, this is the pre-close.

You need to understand what happens when the market opens and closes.

Well done with your purchase of PEB at $0.40!

[blobbles]

No, this is the pre-close.

You need to understand what happens when the market opens and closes.

Well done with your purchase of PEB at $0.40!

You're right, I don't get it still, read up on it to understand how it happens here: http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?9339-day-opening-price

But still don't understand the WHY of it happening. Care to enlighten me? (probably best to do it on that thread :) )

[craic]

expect a rise on the few days before 7thNov. followed by a drop to the real price in the few days after. November 2014 is when you will find out what this share is really worth.It may happen earlier if someone creates a better medicine or some ouitfit decides to buy this one out.

[psychic]

craic - PEB doesn't make medicine

[Minerbarejet]

expect a rise on the few days before 7thNov. followed by a drop to the real price in the few days after. November 2014 is when you will find out what this share is really worth.It may happen earlier if someone creates a better medicine or some ouitfit decides to buy this one out.
Statement 1 possible.
Statement 2 define real
Statement 3 in November 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016
Statement 4 100% cant be bettered and its not a medicine, its a diagnostic tool. It cant fix you but it can tell you what you have or havent got after peeing blood without going through an expensive, invasive, cystoscopy.
Dont think you can just bowl up and takeover a company, might be a few shareholders to consider.
Have you thought of actually buying some yourself. Suggest you read all 3996 posts before you do. Might still be under 1.30 by then.
Disc. Holding some

[Copper]

You're right, I don't get it still, read up on it to understand how it happens here: http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?9339-day-opening-price

But still don't understand the WHY of it happening. Care to enlighten me? (probably best to do it on that thread :) )

My understanding of why it happens is to stop some investor or fund making a sale at the last minute that may be out of line with the market and so funds and portfolios can't be valued at closing prices that may be way out of kilter.In the past one could make a sale at the end of day that could value the portfolio in a much better light.Can work the other way on the downside if valuing for tax losses etc at end of financial year.Also affects indexes and index fund valuations .

[cammo]

will listen to gut instinct and not post my intentions here again. Shoulda .... Coulda.... Woulda.

[Minerbarejet]

will listen to gut instinct and not post my intentions here again. Shoulda .... Coulda.... Woulda.We await developments with baited (sic) breath
Do have a nice day:)

[Bobcat.]

I'll be looking for a bottom tomorrow that has bounce - three days prior to the rights ex date looks about right.

Last week the sp found nice support at 120c and then again at 128c. The latter has been busted, but the former may yet hold. The FOMC meeting overnight could of course also be an influence - hopefully driving the sp lower until people realise that Healthcare is generally unaffected by Equity Market downturns...or upturns for that matter. Most of Healthcare is non-discretionary spending.

Mid morning?

BC

[craic]

Statement 1 possible.
Statement 2 define real
Statement 3 in November 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016
Statement 4 100% cant be bettered and its not a medicine, its a diagnostic tool. It cant fix you but it can tell you what you have or havent got after peeing blood without going through an expensive, invasive, cystoscopy.
Dont think you can just bowl up and takeover a company, might be a few shareholders to consider.
Have you thought of actually buying some yourself. Suggest you read all 3996 posts before you do. Might still be under 1.30 by then.
Disc. Holding some
If you read all the posts yourself you would know that I have a few thousaqnd shares in this one with some spare cash. I know thatcancer of the bladder is a disease and that PEBhave a diagnostic tool but medicine moves in many directions and peb are just one of dozens working on this one, cancer. As to takeovers, all the shares held by posters on this forum wouldnt mean diddley-squat against a reasonable offer to institutional shareholders. Disc. hold just under 4000 shares in PEB.

[stoploss]

I'll be looking for a bottom tomorrow that has bounce - three days prior to the rights ex date looks about right.

Last week the sp found nice support at 120c and then again at 128c. The latter has been busted, but the former may yet hold. The FOMC meeting overnight could of course also be an influence - hopefully driving the sp lower until people realise that Healthcare is generally unaffected by Equity Market downturns...or upturns for that matter. Most of Healthcare is non-discretionary spending.

Mid morning?

BC
Fomc result will be out 7 AM Thursday morning by my reckoning .

[Xerof]

For those who haven't listened to the radiolive interview, here's a transcript:

http://www.interest.co.nz/business/67034/andrew-patterson-talks-david-darling-pacific-edge-about-making-key-bio-tech-partnersh

it's been edited, so doesn't cover the takeover or you beaut moments......

[blakecb]

The reason why I can't bring myself to sell my PEB shares is the simple fact that at any moment we will get an announcement saying an agreement has been reached with medicare or medicaid.... or some other insurance company(ies). If they can do it once, they can do it twice, they can do it three times. I can understand the profit taking, but whatever you do, don't sell on fear. Sell because that is your plan.

[Minerbarejet]

If you read all the posts yourself you would know that I have a few thousaqnd shares in this one with some spare cash. I know thatcancer of the bladder is a disease and that PEBhave a diagnostic tool but medicine moves in many directions and peb are just one of dozens working on this one, cancer. As to takeovers, all the shares held by posters on this forum wouldnt mean diddley-squat against a reasonable offer to institutional shareholders. Disc. hold just under 4000 shares in PEB.err sorry I dont go through all the posts trying to figure out who owns what. What I cant figure out is why you would be so disconsolate unless of course you bought them at 1.75. Cheer up Craic its not all bad and there is a long way to go. Lets revisit in 2015 if I'm still here.
Cheers:)

[Xerof]

I considered whether the PA might look to fill that gap on the daily, just below todays lows, but I concluded its a breakaway gap.

blake/hoops, your thoughts?

[baller18]

The reason why I can't bring myself to sell my PEB shares is the simple fact that at any moment we will get an announcement saying an agreement has been reached with medicare or medicaid.... or some other insurance company(ies). If they can do it once, they can do it twice, they can do it three times. I can understand the profit taking, but whatever you do, don't sell on fear. Sell because that is your plan.
I'm also thinking of accumulating more as well, especially with the rights offer. I'm in this for the long haul!

[Minerbarejet]

The reason why I can't bring myself to sell my PEB shares is the simple fact that at any moment we will get an announcement saying an agreement has been reached with medicare or medicaid.... or some other insurance company(ies). If they can do it once, they can do it twice, they can do it three times. I can understand the profit taking, but whatever you do, don't sell on fear. Sell because that is your plan.
Well said.

[blobbles]

Of course the potential is there with PEB, but we just don't know about success/penetration ability and in the interview Xerof posted, neither does David Darling or his team. Unfortunately its all fuzzy as he says "We've modelled this environment a lot. There's no precedent for this, we don't know what the trajectory is. ". As a result expect volatility in the SP, I would say probably extreme volatility.

Its like betting on a team of aliens who are amazing individual sportsman but have never played cricket and they are going up against Bangladesh. The odds would be all over the place as people tried to analyse the strengths/weaknesses, figuring out if they could easily pick the game up fast enough to win or if they will just be ground to dust. Until the first few overs are bowled, we don't know how they are going to go. Much like PEB, until we have the first few sales reports, we don't know how they are going to go. I love their chances, but based on zero data they are still a risk to bet on. Hence traders will rule the SP until fundamentals take over.

[Xerof]

As Yogi Berra said, it's deja vu all over again

your musings can be found proferring similar concerns, in early comments on the DIL and XRO threads.

come on, the product is an absolute winner, even my wife, who has an eye for such things, says sell everything else and put it in PEB (I won't be, as they are also potential multibaggers!)

not actually yours blobbles, just the sentiment

[blakecb]

In that interview posted above, which was VERY enlightening and well worth a read, Darling said, "Next year we'll have two more products in the market". I didn't realise their other products were that far along the development cycle.

I also liked how he said that his staff of basically high functioning doctors had all hugely up-skilled in the area of bringing a product to its commercialisation phase and they now know what they are doing as far as future products are concerned.

Finally, I also really liked how it seems if they struggle to make big gains in the market, Roche has basically intimated they'll licence it off them and take it to the market. How's that for a fall-back plan? Darling feels they are doing perfectly fine and don't need this option at all.

So.....as has been said, now becoming a fairly de-risked company I would have thought.

PEB is starting to make a believer out of me. DYOR.

[blobbles]

As Yogi Berra said, it's deja vu all over again

your musings can be found proferring similar concerns, in early comments on the DIL and XRO threads.

come on, the product is an absolute winner, even my wife, who has an eye for such things, says sell everything else and put it in PEB (I won't be, as they are also potential multibaggers!)

not actually yours blobbles, just the sentiment

Absolutely, but you are talking about 2 companies that are now SELLING their product and have literally dozens of quarters of growth and customer numbers to prove it. Before they were selling well, you will note I also expressed concerns, as I also have with Blis (not selling well, at least not growing well). And now we are talking about one that we don't know if they can sell yet also.

As a fundamental, long term investor, it makes sense to dip your toes in things that could be great. But they aren't great until they have proven track records of sales and growth. At that point, my view is top up and hold on.

I am also concerned about those that buy at the top (probably north of $1.50) trying to ride the trend or just buying on potentials with a tonne of risk, who then see their money eaten away because of trading volatility and who may end up under financial stress as a result. Hence I urge caution to investors who put money into a share that shoots up over 200% in a few days, at a price that appears to be building sales into the SP that have yet to materialise. I would call that prudent financial advice.

If people want to keep their head in the clouds and not listen to the potential downsides, they can do so to their folly. You will notice I have posted a lot of my own analysis on this thread that is positive with a huge "IF PEB is to succeed". And I think we should have balanced views on here, not consistently promoting or bagging something then attacking others for offering alternate views to what the last 10 posts or the majority of other posters say. As such I will keep posting reality when I see irrational exuberance taking over which could save others from making uninformed decisions.

The two companies you mention DIL & Xero are making good sales, have dozens of quarters of growth to analyse and in DIL's case PROFITS. PEB only has a great product. When they begin to sell and sell well, I will be gushing about them. Until then there is still risk for investors, so I would suggest not to "sell everything" or pretty much "bet the house on it" as some appear to be doing.

[blobbles]

Absolutely, but you are talking about 2 companies that are now SELLING their product and have literally dozens of quarters of growth and customer numbers to prove it. Before they were selling well, you will note I also expressed concerns, as I also have with Blis (not selling well, at least not growing well). And now we are talking about one that we don't know if they can sell yet also.

As a fundamental, long term investor, it makes sense to dip your toes in things that could be great. But they aren't great until they have proven track records of sales and growth. At that point, my view is top up and hold on.

I am also concerned about those that buy at the top (probably north of $1.50) trying to ride the trend or just buying on potentials with a tonne of risk, who then see their money eaten away because of trading volatility and who may end up under financial stress as a result. Hence I urge caution to investors who put money into a share that shoots up over 200% in a few days, at a price that appears to be building sales into the SP that have yet to materialise. I would call that prudent financial advice.

If people want to keep their head in the clouds and not listen to the potential downsides, they can do so to their folly. You will notice I have posted a lot of my own analysis on this thread that is positive with a huge "IF PEB is to succeed". And I think we should have balanced views on here, not consistently promoting or bagging something then attacking others for offering alternate views to what the last 10 posts or the majority of other posters say. As such I will keep posting reality when I see irrational exuberance taking over which could save others from making uninformed decisions.

The two companies you mention DIL & Xero are making good sales, have dozens of quarters of growth to analyse and in DIL's case PROFITS. PEB only has a great product. When they begin to sell and sell well, I will be gushing about them. Until then there is still risk for investors, so I would suggest not to "sell everything" or pretty much "bet the house on it" as some appear to be doing.

Sorry Xerof, that came out grumpier than I wanted to sound! I stand by the statements but I shouldn't sound so grumpy!

:D

[MAC]

There are a lot of welcome new posters on the thread who are coming up to speed with the company and management. I really don’t see a lot of point in drawing comparisons to other companies, they are all too different and operate in different sectors, my recommendation would be to instead spend some time going back over the thread, there is a wealth, literally, of knowledge to find, all that’s needed or referenced.

I’m happy to leave all the TA, 38.2% fibonacci retracement stuff, and short term technical to others, but what I am convinced of is that both this company and the share price have a long way to go over the coming months and years.

Perhaps when a primary trend line is formed some may feel more certain about their hard earned investments. As the fundamentals are exceptional I suspect it may well be a trajectory that may keep us all satisfied for some time.

Relax, it's just the beginning.

[robbo24]

I see on page 7 of the amended Simplified Disclosure Prospectus (https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/184062.pdf) that the ex-entitlement date is 5 November and the record date is 7 November.

Does this mean that the last day to buy PEB before the rights entitlements are no longer attached to shares is Monday 4 November?

Please explain it to a simpleton such as myself...

[tunsbro]

Just a quick note to add to the discussion back on page 258. Each patient that tests positive will continue to have multiple monitoring tests through their treatment/therapy. So not only are you screening a greater number than the eventual patient population, you have repeat purchases from that population.

[benjitara]

All we're seeing over the last fews days is the mentality of traders opposed to investors. Deals to bring cxbladder into the USA market are being established, it's another step in a long process. If you believe in the product (which you should because it's proven to be better than competitors) and the people then I see no reason to look at the day to day price of this stock at all. Sales data will make the share price volatile due to traders and I'm sure we will see another opportunity for long term investors to buy in in the near future once sales figures are out and disappoint a large proportion of those same traders. Rome wasn't.... but neither was anything else worth doing.
Patience...

[Schrodinger]

Great post Blobbles

[False Profit]

;) I got out at 154 cents too, happy to buy back in at some point as well.

Forgive me but how is it worth doing this if you bought at, say 50c? You'll never be able to buy in at those prices again? Maybe...

I have mine, bought st 57c, and have no intention to sell until they reach a much higher value. So who has got more profit in the end? I guess it depends on the sheer bulk volume you have bought. I, myself, don't have the stones for intra day trading.

[tosspot]

Forgive me but how is it worth doing this if you bought at, say 50c? You'll never be able to buy in at those prices again? Maybe...

I have mine, bought st 57c, and have no intention to sell until they reach a much higher value. So who has got more profit in the end? I guess it depends on the sheer bulk volume you have bought. I, myself, don't have the stones for intra day trading.
umm he would, if you had sold out those ones you got at 57c at 1.54 then rebought today at 1.20 ish or even less over the coming days you would have alot more shares than you originally would have meaning in the long run selling out would net you more profits.

[craic]

Forgive me but how is it worth doing this if you bought at, say 50c? You'll never be able to buy in at those prices again? Maybe...

I have mine, bought st 57c, and have no intention to sell until they reach a much higher value. So who has got more profit in the end? I guess it depends on the sheer bulk volume you have bought. I, myself, don't have the stones for intra day trading.

Trading is just another way of earning a living on the market. As an example, I sold a block of Tel shares about a week ago for $81,387 and bought them back yesterday for $80,660 or a profit of $727 after fees of approx $300. Of the profit, 30% is set aside for tax 30% for emergency fund and the rest to me. The emergency fund is to buy the block back in the same QUANTITY after I sell at what I consider the top and the price continues to rise ( instead of the expected drop). Intra day trading requires volume and strict self imposed rules. Trading PEB would, I think, be a foolish venture at this stage. Why? - becaused it is not an established company with a track record and noone knows where it is going in spite of all the hype. Disc. I have approx 4000 PEB myself and will probably buy the options.

[robbo24]

Forgive me but how is it worth doing this if you bought at, say 50c? You'll never be able to buy in at those prices again? Maybe...

I have mine, bought st 57c, and have no intention to sell until they reach a much higher value. So who has got more profit in the end? I guess it depends on the sheer bulk volume you have bought. I, myself, don't have the stones for intra day trading.

It's simple. Here's an example. If I buy at 50c, then sell at 150c then buy back in at a price lower than 150c then I am actually better off than if I didn't sell at 150c.

[TimmyTP]

American Insurance Industry Publication

InsuranceNewsNet.com (their words) is the leading, Web-based trade publication for insurance agents, home office personnel, and other professionals in the life, health and property/casualty industries. Plus, InsuranceNewsNet Magazine offers readers the opportunity to read the most exciting and informative print-based magazine to hit the insurance industry in years.

Hyperlink: Insurance News Net Article (http://insurancenewsnet.com/oarticle/2013/10/27/fedmed-to-offer-pacific-edges-cxbladder-%5Bmanufacturing-close--up%5D-a-410885.html)
Thanks as always Hancocks. I appear to have moved to China overnight as I cannot access that site - does it contain new news, or the existing FedMed news featuring in a respected publication?

[skid]

As Yogi Berra said, it's deja vu all over again

your musings can be found proferring similar concerns, in early comments on the DIL and XRO threads.

come on, the product is an absolute winner, even my wife, who has an eye for such things, says sell everything else and put it in PEB (I won't be, as they are also potential multibaggers!)

not actually yours blobbles, just the sentiment

The product IS an absolute winner--A few weeks ago it was a 50c absolute winner--a few days ago it was a $1.50 absolute winner. Now its a $1.25 absolute winner.

Could you please ask your wife which absolute winner it is please?

[skid]

Just to clear up an earlier post-I didnt predict it would be an 80c absolute winner-just that I would be on board at that price.
Who could possibly predict where this share is going in the short term.
It reminds me of another share I had in the past.
For about 5 weeks it would alternate between the ''biggest rises'' and biggest falls''in the weekend Herald

[MAC]

There are risks in trading PEB, missing the announcements and SP steps which could occur at any time. Accumulating relatively enormous amounts of tax and brokerage that may or may not out way any efforts in being successful or otherwise with the timing.

There are risks in holding PEB long term also and it takes some maturity and nerves sometimes to ride through the volatility knowing it is a successful strategy as an investor. Awaiting a primary trend to form as at present can rattle nerves for some I'm sure also.

My feel is that the risks of being on the side lines watching PEB are high and it’s just not worth trying to be too cute trading a company that in all probability has five quite solid years of growth ahead.

Each to their own.

[NZSilver]

There are risks in trading PEB, missing the announcements and SP steps which could occur at any time. Accumulating relatively enormous amounts of tax and brokerage that may or may not out way any efforts in being successful or otherwise with the timing.

There are risks in holding PEB long term also and it takes some maturity and nerves sometimes to ride through the volatility knowing it is a successful strategy as an investor. Awaiting a primary trend to form as at present can rattle nerves for some I'm sure also.

My feel is that the risks of being on the side lines watching PEB are high and it’s just not worth trying to be too cute trading a company that in all probability has five quite solid years of growth ahead.

Each to their own.

Too right! There could be an announcment at any time and things will move north again! Far to risky being in and out unless you are watching the sp every minute of the day.

Hold, hold and again hold are my thoughts
+ accumulation with spare cash if you havnt spent it all already....

[whatsup]

For those who haven't listened to the radiolive interview, here's a transcript:

http://www.interest.co.nz/business/67034/andrew-patterson-talks-david-darling-pacific-edge-about-making-key-bio-tech-partnersh

it's been edited, so doesn't cover the takeover or you beaut moments......

A MUST READ FOR ALL PEB HOLDERS, Do not let this slip!

[TimmyTP]

It is interesting in that it is an American insurance industry article, I did like Jackie's comment.

CEO of PED USA Jackie Walker said, "We are enthusiastic about the continued market acceptance of our Cxbladder test for bladder cancer detection.The Cxbladder proposition as a quick, cost effective, non- invasive and highly accurate cancer detection test is particularly appealing to US healthcare professionals, patients, and insurers who can see its positive benefits. This is a big step forward for Cxbladder and further supports our direct marketing efforts to clinicians and cancer patients."

Thanks again. Apparently I have returned from China & now managed to read the original. See what you mean
This related article (http://insurancenewsnet.com/oarticle/2013/10/25/pacific-edge-partners-with-americas-choice-provider-network-to-expand-cxbladder-a-409909.html#.UnAcBPlkM8I) related to the ACPN announcement is also quite interesting, particularly the very clear statements about sales strategy. I enjoyed the succinctness of the description of PEB's business too: "Pacific Edge Limited is a cancer diagnostic company".
Apols if this has already been posted - lots of euphoria and dysphoria to wade through to check.

[gv1]

Big numbers going at 127

[gv1]

Big vol 145937 just went through at 127

[zymwh]

ju190k @135 pre open

[robbo24]

ju190k @135 pre open

It's not a greyhound race man, calm down.

[okay]

Definitely been plenty of hyperbole on this thread lately. I've lost count of the number of people saying you don't want to miss the next announcement.

It makes me wonder if any of those saying this have researched any other diagnostic companies making similar announcements and where their market caps are at? I have and have found 3.

The most closely aligned of these to PEB and the one with the highest market cap is MDxHealth, a Belgium company. It's flagship product is called ConfirmMDx prostate cancer diagnosis, although they also have others in the pipeline including colon, lung and a test for brain tumors.

If you use this link you will see on 1 October 2013 http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/10/01/us-mdxhealth-insurers-idUSBRE99008220131001?type=companyNews they also coincidentally signed up FEDMED and ACPN (same announcement), but on top of that they have also made other deals, including with other US insurers meaning their product currently has total coverage of 130M compared to PEB which presently has 50M.

They also had Q1, yes quarter, not annual sales of 1.1M euro up 51%.

So what market cap has been assigned to MDxHealth by their local exchange? Market Cap 98M or approx 160M NZD. PEB's market cap is currently almost 200M more at yesterdays close at 350M, with currently less coverage and I expect less sales. It was only very recently that PEB had a market cap of 486M, 300M+ more than MDx, when it was priced at $1.75.

I do recall some time somebody on here saying NZ seems to put a premium on its BIO's compared to Australia due to lack of choice. Maybe compared to Belgium as well?

Yes do get excited by the announcements, but like Blobbles has been saying, do also try to keep at least one foot on the ground when the hype abounds and surrounds.

DYOR

Discl: Like the company, sidelined as the hype settles down

[robbo24]

The most closely aligned of these to PEB and the one with the highest market cap is MDxHealth, a Belgium company. It's flagship product is called ConfirmMDx prostate cancer diagnosis, although they also have others in the pipeline including colon, lung and a test for brain tumors.

What is the annual amount spent on detecting prostate cancer in the US? How many tests per suspected case do they have to use? What are the comparisons between the two companies actual offerings?

[MAC]

There is a common consideration in trying to compare different company market caps vs sales.

As companies progress from capital raising to commercialisation the market discounts a company share price as a function of the amount of risk associated with that particular stock. This is why it is common to hear analysts refer to valuations for growth stocks as being ‘de-risked’. Growth stocks can remain undervalued for long durations awaiting risk to fall away.

If a company has a lower market cap and higher sales, in all probability, the market is simply telling you that that particular stock has not yet de-risked to the same extent as a company with a higher market cap and lower sales.

Comparing market caps vs sales is not a confident or at all reliable means of assessing value, recommend you have a go at some DCF.

Trust this assists you Okay.

[False Profit]

Trading is just another way of earning a living on the market. As an example, I sold a block of Tel shares about a week ago for $81,387 and bought them back yesterday for $80,660 or a profit of $727 after fees of approx $300. Of the profit, 30% is set aside for tax 30% for emergency fund and the rest to me. The emergency fund is to buy the block back in the same QUANTITY after I sell at what I consider the top and the price continues to rise ( instead of the expected drop). Intra day trading requires volume and strict self imposed rules. Trading PEB would, I think, be a foolish venture at this stage. Why? - becaused it is not an established company with a track record and noone knows where it is going in spite of all the hype. Disc. I have approx 4000 PEB myself and will probably buy the options.

Cheers Craic, I only started trading a few months back and PEB was one of the first <beginner's luck>. I've hit the jackpot with this one, on paper at least. Thought about selling when I'd made $30k but let it run. Happy to keep an eye on the way this one goes and would consider buying in more if it drops below 120c.

One of the posters mentioned that he'd sold shares to the value of his original investment meaning what was left was profit. I may go down that route as I have faith in PEB but you never know.

Cheers again.

[Whipmoney]

There are risks in trading PEB, missing the announcements and SP steps which could occur at any time. Accumulating relatively enormous amounts of tax and brokerage that may or may not out way any efforts in being successful or otherwise with the timing.

There are risks in holding PEB long term also and it takes some maturity and nerves sometimes to ride through the volatility knowing it is a successful strategy as an investor. Awaiting a primary trend to form as at present can rattle nerves for some I'm sure also.

My feel is that the risks of being on the side lines watching PEB are high and it’s just not worth trying to be too cute trading a company that in all probability has five quite solid years of growth ahead.

Each to their own.

I believe you are correct in that another announcement (particularly medicare/caid) will send the SP skyrocketing again however I have to ask: would that not only serve to make the company even more overvalued?

Before anybody shoots the messenger, lets look at the Facts: Fantastic product, Great Company, an exceptional Management team / execution and a pipeline for at least a further two products.

On the flip side, we know that the US market is around ~1.895m tests per year and and ~1% penetration (at US$550) per test this equates to only
$10,442,500 in revenues. Hardly a huge amount given their cost base and in light of their planned marketing ramp of circa $20m.

[tunsbro]

Big numbers going at 127
Seems to me like accumulation from smart money. Good sign. Been happening in spikes to let the price settle. Not liquid enough to hide their continuous purchases.

[gv1]

Thanks tunsbro. Thats what I thought as well, its not worth selling now I guess.

[MAC]

I believe you are correct in that another announcement (particularly medicare/caid) will send the SP skyrocketing again however I have to ask: would that not only serve to make the company even more overvalued?

Before anybody shoots the messenger, lets look at the Facts: Fantastic product, Great Company, an exceptional Management team / execution and a pipeline for at least a further two products.

On the flip side, we know that the US market is around ~1.895m tests per year and and ~1% penetration (at US$550) per test this equates to only
$10,442,500 in revenues. Hardly a huge amount given their cost base and in light of their planned marketing ramp of circa $20m.

It is difficult to value PEB. If we are confident in the US $100M gross revenue target being achieved then it becomes a matter of the timing of the revenue stream up to that target.

I did some work over the weekend and posted the results. If the $20.5M capital injection were to bring forward that $100M gross revenue target by one year then this would value the company, by my humble assessment, at FY14 $2.30. I’m not saying this will occur, no one can, but it is an entirely plausible outcome.

http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?2705-Pacific-Edge-Biotechnology&p=436473#post436473

Under this scenario PEB is probably presently fairly valued at $1.50 and if one considers this in respect to just how undervalued the company was at 61c it does seem to add some perspective.

The difficulty for the market at present I suspect is in gaining some confidence in the timing of that revenue stream and thus it’s associated net present value.

David Darling in his radio interview over the weekend, said that although meeting the target was 'doable' he wasn’t sure of the trajectory. This followed his comments in the NZ Herald last week that the target was 'doable' and could happen sooner.

Time will tell, I would be a supporter of quarterly sales reporting, it would settle the market down no end.

[robbo24]

I found an old post from 05-01-2013 at 06:47 PM using Google Cache from SparkytheClown:


I don't disagree with your thesis. I was unaware that the CEO, David Darling, had aimed for $100m gross revenue by year five.

By my calculation, thats around $45m in NPAT, or thereabouts. Given that there is 287m shares on issue, that would suggest EPS of around 15.7c.

Using my VERY rusty back-of-the-envelope clown calculations, (2 X Growth X EPS) that would suggest 1c EPS for 2014, with 100% growth for every year for the next four years (five year avg growth of 100%), e.g. EPS of 1c, 2c, 4, 8c, 16c.

2 X 100% growth X 1c EPS = 2013 share price target of $2.00.

Thereafter we will apply a terminal rate of 5% growth thereafter for years extending past year five

2 X 81% growth X 2c EPS = 2014 share price target of $3.24
2 X 62% growth X 4c EPS = 2015 share price target of $4.96
2 X 43% growth X 8c EPS = 2016 share price target of $6.88
2 X 25% growth X 16c EPS = 2017 share price target of $8.00

Sounds good to me, though this is very back of the envelope. Apologies if maths is wonky, and please correct me if I'm wrong.

On Sparky's spreadsheet of lies and distortions, PEB gives me a price target of $2.50 using the 2014 figures, and $6.30 for the 2017 figures. That more rigourous formula applies a risk free rates and less ambitious growth multipliers.

Of course, its more likely that a US pharmaceutical company will pounce in 2015 if earnings look like rocketing up.

[Whipmoney]

Definitely been plenty of hyperbole on this thread lately. I've lost count of the number of people saying you don't want to miss the next announcement.

It makes me wonder if any of those saying this have researched any other diagnostic companies making similar announcements and where their market caps are at? I have and have found 3.

The most closely aligned of these to PEB and the one with the highest market cap is MDxHealth, a Belgium company. It's flagship product is called ConfirmMDx prostate cancer diagnosis, although they also have others in the pipeline including colon, lung and a test for brain tumors.

If you use this link you will see on 1 October 2013 http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/10/01/us-mdxhealth-insurers-idUSBRE99008220131001?type=companyNews they also coincidentally signed up FEDMED and ACPN (same announcement), but on top of that they have also made other deals, including with other US insurers meaning their product currently has total coverage of 130M compared to PEB which presently has 50M.

They also had Q1, yes quarter, not annual sales of 1.1M euro up 51%.

So what market cap has been assigned to MDxHealth by their local exchange? Market Cap 98M or approx 160M NZD. PEB's market cap is currently almost 200M more at yesterdays close at 350M, with currently less coverage and I expect less sales. It was only very recently that PEB had a market cap of 486M, 300M+ more than MDx, when it was priced at $1.75.

I do recall some time somebody on here saying NZ seems to put a premium on its BIO's compared to Australia due to lack of choice. Maybe compared to Belgium as well?

Yes do get excited by the announcements, but like Blobbles has been saying, do also try to keep at least one foot on the ground when the hype abounds and surrounds.

DYOR

Discl: Like the company, sidelined as the hype settles down

Interesting post Okay.

Whilst I don't really know anything about their product and/or competitors I see that the incidence of prostate cancer seems a lot higher than that of Baldder cancer and therefore they potentially have a lot bigger market. Maybe someone can confirm this?

[Whipmoney]

Interesting...........................

Press Release (3 May 2011)

MDxHealth Receives USD 1.1 Million European Grant to Progress Bladder Cancer Program

DURHAM, NC, and LIEGE, BELGIUM - May 3, 2011 - MDxHealth SA (NYSE Euronext: MDXH), a leading molecular diagnostics company in the field of personalized cancer treatment, today announced that together with partner NovioGendix B.V., a molecular diagnostics company spun out from Radboud University Nijmegen Medical Centre (RUNMC), the Netherlands, has received a USD 1.1 million grant from Eurotrans-Bio to progress its bladder cancer program. Eurotrans-Bio is a European Commission initiative to foster cross border research & development between companies and academia working in the biotech industry.
"This grant provides MDxHealth and NovioGendix with the necessary resources to investigate further the unique biological indicators and patterns seen in bladder cancer derived from patient samples from the existing collaboration of NovioGendix with RUNMC," explained Dr. Jan Groen, CEO of MDxHealth.
During 2011 and 2012, MDxHealth and NovioGendix will use the funds to discover and validate tumor markers for the prediction of tumor progression into the muscle in developing invasive stage of bladder cancer using DNA methylation technologies, DNA sequencing and RNA-expression profiles on clinical samples collected from bladder cancer patients at the Urology Department of RUNMC. Such predictive markers will guide the treatment decisions for the more aggressive bladder tumors.
Bladder cancer is one of the most common cancers, with 60 to 80 percent of survivors experiencing recurrence of the disease. There is an urgent need for accurate biomarkers of the disease, its progression, and its risk of recurrence following initial treatment so that diagnostic tests can be developed to enable earlier and targeted therapeutic intervention.
About Eurotrans-Bio
The overall objective of Eurotrans-Bio is to provide the European biotech industry with a prolific funding program dedicated to foster cooperation and cross-border partnerships between active small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) and their academic partners across the European member states, and to establish a sustainable joint funding program for biotech SMEs by 2012.
About MDxHealth
MDxHealth is a leading molecular diagnostics company that develops and commercializes oncology-based molecular diagnostic testing for personalized medicine. The company's tests are based on proprietary gene methylation technology and assist physicians with the diagnosis of cancer, prognosis of recurrence risk, and prediction of response to a specific therapy. MDxHealth collaborates with leading cancer research center such as Johns Hopkins University and Memorial Sloan Kettering, and major European academic medical centers. The company has a number of commercial and collaborative partnerships with LabCorp, Merck &amp; Co./Schering Plough, GlaxoSmithKline Biologicals, Roche, Merck Serono, Pfizer, and other industry leaders. More information can be found on the Company website: www.mdxhealth.com (http://www.mdxhealth.com/) or on twitter at the following address : www.twitter.com/mdxhealth (http://www.twitter.com/mdxhealth).
MDxHealth to present at Bio€quity Europe 2011
MDxHealth will present at the Bio€quity Europe in Paris on Tuesday May 24th.
Dr Jan Groen, chief executive officer, will make a formal presentation on the company at 13:30 in Hotel Marriott Rive Gauche, room La Seine B, Boulevard Saint-Jacques, 75014 Paris, France.

[Whipmoney]

without a doubt one of the biggest threats to PEB is another product developement.
I have done a quick pan over mdxhealth financails.
These indicate that the company is still bleeding lots of money.
I like PEB as it seems the managment have a good control of its spending and there are many companies around that fail or will fail because of poor management.

It looks like Bladder Cancer is still very early on in their pipeline so maybe they have shelved it in light of PEB's recent successes however I was just putting it out there to get it on people's radars. Even if they're not a direct threat in the bladder cancer market, these two companies may cross swords (so to speak) in other markets such as colon and gastric cancers.

[CJ]

AND PEB are several years on mdxhealth in terms of development. That seems pretty important to me. PEB should have quite a good amount of time to stake their claim for market share before mdxhealth even gets going, that's IF they get going...Even if they do get going, wil their test be better? I have seen a lot of 100% in relation to PEB test - that is hard to beat. They could compete on price but PEB could also lower theirs as the marginal cost of each test is small, it just means profitability will be lower.

[Whipmoney]

Even if they do get going, wil their test be better? I have seen a lot of 100% in relation to PEB test - that is hard to beat. They could compete on price but PEB could also lower theirs as the marginal cost of each test is small, it just means profitability will be lower.

This is true but if MDxHealth holds solid relations with the major US insurance through their prostate and brain cancer diagnostic tools then it could be possible that they could ursurp the CXBladder with their own product under a multiple product agreement (presuming their efficacy/price is similar of course)

[Intel]

Check this out.

Nice table for sensitivity comparisons between CX bladder and the rest. Urovysion is the clear competitor
.
http://www.bcbsnc.com/assets/services/public/pdfs/medicalpolicy/urinary_tumor_markers_for_bladder_cancer.pdf

CX bladders reults from two published trials




Sensitivity
Range

Specificity
Range


CX Bladder
86
82
90

80
75
85

[benjitara]

This is true but if MDxHealth holds solid relations with the major US insurance through their prostate and brain cancer diagnostic tools then it could be possible that they could ursurp the CXBladder with their own product under a multiple product agreement (presuming their efficacy/price is similar of course)

Nothing is stopping PEB from securing similar relations with the same companies. CXBLADDER has a competitive advantage through IP and also has multiple products in the pipeline. You can talk about competition all day long but remember that those companies also see Pacific edge as a competitor too. What do you think they think of cxbladders test results?

[okay]

I'm not promoting MDx. I believe I made it clear prostate cancer diagnosis is their thing, and looks like brain tumor testing soon. My post wasn't about PEB having a bladder cancer diagnosis competitor. It was done to show there are other cancer diagnosis companies doing deals with these same insurers, like PEB at the moment. Stratose seemed to be another MDx had done. So for me at least and maybe others, it maybe of interest to gauge how other markets react to these types of news, and briefly what is going on outside of the world of PEB.

[zymwh]

My understadning is ConfirnMDx is just a tool to help decide if continuous biopsies are needed. While CxBladder is totally a new and better way to detect the cancer. Anyway they are for different cancers

[psychic]

Thanks for posting okay
Good to be aware of this, but wonder about the direct comparison re share price / mkt cap. I note from whips post above that MDxHealth has "commercial and collaborative partnerships with Labcorp, Merck, Glaxo. Roche et al. These "parnerships" whilst obviously door openers, would certainly come at a cost to margin so perhaps this should be factored into the comparison. Cheers

[skid]

There are risks in trading PEB, missing the announcements and SP steps which could occur at any time. Accumulating relatively enormous amounts of tax and brokerage that may or may not out way any efforts in being successful or otherwise with the timing.

There are risks in holding PEB long term also and it takes some maturity and nerves sometimes to ride through the volatility knowing it is a successful strategy as an investor. Awaiting a primary trend to form as at present can rattle nerves for some I'm sure also.

My feel is that the risks of being on the side lines watching PEB are high and it’s just not worth trying to be too cute trading a company that in all probability has five quite solid years of growth ahead.

Each to their own.

Some would call it cute,and some would call it cautious--those that sold some,to free carry their shares seem pretty logical to me--of course only time will tell.
The first step in the 5 yr growth is to get a better picture of the actual worth of the co.-and then hopefully steady growth from there.
I wouldnt be to hard on those who wish to get into factual territory,even if it does involve missing the boat in the first stage of this hopefully very long trip

[Minerbarejet]

Dont know if anyone has noticed but the release is dated 2011:ohmy:



Press Release (3 May 2011)

MDxHealth Receives USD 1.1 Million European Grant to Progress Bladder Cancer Program

[skid]

One thing for sure --If we were all on wages the co. would have to do another capital raising--or if we were paying for the entertainment they never have to do another:)

[okay]

[QUOTE=Minerbarejet;437225]Dont know if anyone has noticed but the release is dated 2011:ohmy:


Yes that is an old article.

My hyperlink was on the topic of companies signing up FEDMED and ACPN and that was 1 October 2013 and to be mindful of PEB's market cap.
MDxHealth expands U.S. insurance cover for cancer test


BRUSSELS | Tue Oct 1, 2013 2:28am EDT

BRUSSELS (Reuters) - Belgium-based cancer testing company MDxHealth said on Tuesday it had signed deal with two U.S. health insurers to expand coverage of its ConfirmMDx prostate cancer diagnosis by more than 50 million people.
MDxHealth said in a statement that it had signed agreements with FedMed, Inc., with 40 million members, and America's Choice Provider Network, Inc., with 11 million members.
The new agreements mean that some 130 million people now have possible access to ConfirmMDx via their health insurance (http://www.reuters.com/sectors/industries/overview?industryCode=139&lc=int_mb_1001) providers.
ConfirmMDx, MDxHealth's first commercial product, aims to distinguish patients with a true-negative biopsy from those who may have undetected cancer.
Currently, repeat biopsies are carried out, many on cancer-free men. ConfirmMDx is designed to help urologists identify truly cancer-free men and allow them to avoid potentially a costly repeat biopsies.

[psychic]

Did I misinterpret this or was there a shift in the recent interview from introducing cxbladder as an adjunct to cystocopies (in pref to NMP22) to now suggesting cxbladder will replace cystocopies alltogether? I understood that trials of CXbladder had in fact detected tumours when cystocopies had not, and that there will be the need for less cysto's because it will lenghthen the cysto cycle, , but if cxbladder replaces cysto's entirely and becomes the gold standard for detection, then this is way big.....
Would be so delighted for the wretched beggars that have to tolerate cysto's

[Mista_Trix]

Its holding quite nicely around that early 1.20's mark. Plus the fall for today isn't MASSIVE like previous two days, I wonder if we're seeing some stabilisation ...

[blobbles]

Did I misinterpret this or was there a shift in the recent interview from introducing cxbladder as an adjunct to cystocopies (in pref to NMP22) to now suggesting cxbladder will replace cystocopies alltogether? I understood that trials of CXbladder had in fact detected tumours when cystocopies had not, and that there will be the need for less cysto's because it will lenghthen the cysto cycle, , but if cxbladder replaces cysto's entirely and becomes the gold standard for detection, then this is way big.....
Would be so delighted for the wretched beggars that have to tolerate cysto's

I don't think it will replace them. People present to the doctor with blood in the urine which can have many causes, only 5% or less being bladder cancer. So how do you test for the other causes?

I think it can only be used as an adjunct for new cases, but possibly as a replacement for recurrence testing.

Check out the Wikipedia article on bladder cancer, good place to start if you want to understand the disease CxBladder is built to test.

[blobbles]

Its holding quite nicely around that early 1.20's mark. Plus the fall for today isn't MASSIVE like previous two days, I wonder if we're seeing some stabilisation ...

Clearly traders are still trading based on huge volume of trades at low quantities. Be careful about making stability assumptions when traders rein...

[geo]

ju190k @135 pre open

All you Day Traders out there now be honest. Do you make a decent living scratching around for !c here and 2c there, after all the fees tax and stress being glued to the monitor all day. Afraid to go to the toilet in case the price moves,No exercise because sitting down for over 8 hrs in front of the computer. Sending out posts because the SP moved 2 cents. As I said BE HONEST.

[psychic]

Thanks Hancocks. Yes better not to spook the herd I suppose and make establishing cxbladder harder than it has to be. Slowly and surely.
Thanks also for your swift and calming response earlier re the failed competition. Needed that.. :)

[blobbles]

Something interesting that people may want to note which I cannot confirm without expert knowledge...

The method for PEB to obtain it's biological markers was basically to get a tonne of genetic data and compare it with other genetic data to understand which data indicated bladder cancer. After doing this extensively they came up with a number of markers indicating bladder cancer which are now used in CxBladder. Now, I may be wrong here, but it therefore makes sense to me that if they are able to get more test data through tests being sent to them it should mean they can make their test better and better. It may also mean that as they build up their genetic bank of information they could use it to test for other medical problems. Which could provide a wealth of different revenue streams.

I wonder what it says on the bottom of the CxBladder test box? Does it say that your sample will be destroyed after testing or that it may be kept to enhance future tests?

[Whipmoney]

All you Day Traders out there now be honest. Do you make a decent living scratching around for !c here and 2c there, after all the fees tax and stress being glued to the monitor all day. Afraid to go to the toilet in case the price moves,No exercise because sitting down for over 8 hrs in front of the computer. Sending out posts because the SP moved 2 cents. As I said BE HONEST.

I'm not a day trader by any means but I don't know what you're asking here. The stock dropped ~11% yesterday so anybody sitting on the sidelines buying back in today has saved themselves a considerable amount of capital, not to mention those who sold in the 1.50's-1.60's.

[CJ]

it therefore makes sense to me that if they are able to get more test data through tests being sent to them it should mean they can make their test better and better. It may also mean that as they build up their genetic bank of information they could use it to test for other medical problems. Which could provide a wealth of different revenue streams. I think this only works if they then get confirmation that their test results were correct? Otherwise, they have a lot of data, with no way of confirming its accuracy. I wonder if they have this feedback loop for continual improvement.

[Xerof]

Looks like the insto SELLER who has been quite aggressive over the past few sessions is either finished or near completion.

Perhaps they were anxious to lock in their end of year bonuses - very short sighted, tsk tsk, probably the same one who sold at 49 the other day

Mr Magoo, I hope there's a lock on the fridge, as scarfies will drink any type of piss they can lay their hands on

[Minerbarejet]

Hi Blobbles, people that consent or participated in the clinical trials will have their samples saved; and, because such tiny piece is used, it is a good sample library for future. That is why the two other bladder tests being developed will be quite quick to market, as there are samples at the lab now for the clinical trials. Who would have ever thunk that a fridge full of piss on the Otago of University campus would be such a major asset to anyone other than a scruffy student?
:DNice one Hancocks:):) roflmao

[Bobcat.]

I'm back in. Let's see now if 120 holds. Either way, I'm pleased to be back in the fold. If the sp drops through 120 I'd be surprised but stranger things have happened and it will only present greater opportunity.

BC

[Mista_Trix]

Yip I'm the same, sold out half at $1.41, back in at $1.20.
Happy holder now.

[robbo24]

Yip I'm the same, sold out half at $1.41, back in at $1.20.
Happy holder now.

1.10 is looking juicy... Are you guys sure you don't want to meet up with me at 72c?

[baller18]

1.10 is looking juicy... Are you guys sure you don't want to meet up with me at 72c?
72cents? no way