PEB - Pacific Edge Ltd

[psychic]

Er - whats the racket with 1 ask at 0 qty blank price mean on the depth right now?

[blocker3]

there seems to be lots of discussion about the rights issue, but i as a holder of PEB have received nothing from the company about my entitlement.

Has anyone received the rights documentation, or is it a virtual offer?

To get a peep for what is in the mail ( My guess)

Go to
1 www.nzx.com (http://www.nzx.com)
2 Log in PED (top right... enter)
3 Scroll down to " Capital Raising Doc's (11 Nov... open)
4 Open and read the 3 attachments
5 Last doc and pages will have your allocation showing,when it arrives in the mail (My guess)

Hope that helps

Cheers

[blocker3]

.....no nothing has been received from the company. To verify your entitlement either go on-line and check through the registry site (LINK Market?) or if you use an on-line broker your entitlemnt should show up under "portfolio" maybe?? My "freebies" are now long sold and a new bike is on the way!!

HoHoHo Merry Christmas

[Blue Horseshoe]

Can someone please tell me what it would take for PEB to step into the nzx 50 index.

[Harvey Specter]

Can someone please tell me what it would take for PEB to step into the nzx 50 index.It should be in next time subject to the liquidity requirements (doesn't seem to be an issue) and the stand down period (ie. to ensure it is not a fly by nighter). Market cap should be sufficent to be above 45 which gets it in.

[etrader]

When it's in top 50 do insto's need to re weight their portfolios ?

[Minerbarejet]

When it's in top 50 do insto's need to re weight their portfolios ?
Passive funds like FONZ would.:)

[Schrodinger]

$100M revenue by 2020 with no competitor response....?

Not convinced. Anyone have their latests sales figures or do they intend to start selling in March 2014?

[Harvey Specter]

They're updating their website today apparently - country specific info.

[hilskin]

Here's a link to the incorrect information.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/small-business/9392573/Pacific-Edge-forecasts-big-return (http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/small-business/9392573/Pacific-Edge-forecasts-big-return)

[Harvey Specter]

Here's a link to the incorrect information.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/small-business/9392573/Pacific-Edge-forecasts-big-return (http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/small-business/9392573/Pacific-Edge-forecasts-big-return)It got approval March 2013 (so only one year out) so could technically process tests from then and probably was (ie. user trials etc)

[psychic]

$100M revenue by 2020 with no competitor response....?

Not convinced. Anyone have their latests sales figures or do they intend to start selling in March 2014?

C'mon Schrodinger, do a little research first

[Balance]

C'mon Schrodinger, do a little research first

Exactly - do some reading and assessment first. That kind of posting is not worthy of any kind of enlightenment.

Waste of space.

[jonu]

Exactly - do some reading and assessment first. That kind of posting is not worthy of any kind of enlightenment.

Waste of space.

I think Psychic put it a little more nicely Balance, you old grumpy guts:)

[Iolite]

Some good new information in the Capital Raising Presentation (click here to view the PDF (https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/184961.pdf)).

These tidbits caught my eye and contained something I didn't know, but there is much more in the document, so do your own research:


Australia: User Program underway in Queensland to evaluate replacement of ultrasound in a clinical setting with Cxbladder.
Spain: Licensed partner Oryzon promoting Cxbladder for recurrence monitoring and targeting sales into public hospital systems early 2014.
Clinical validation: Cxbladder has been validated on 178 patients, recruited in a blinded “User Performance” study from two New Zealand DHB sites (Unpublished as at 23 October 2013). The performance of Cxbladder in this validation setting shows a sensitivity of 90% at a specificity of 75%. Cxbladder has been effectively validated and has an equivalent performance to that seen in the published clinical study (Journal of Urology, September 2012).
Product Development: Pacific Edge’s on-going development programme includes clinical and User Programmes to validate Cxbladdertriage, a new product positioned to enable clinicians to segregate patients who have presented to the clinician with haematuria, who do not have bladder cancer. Launch 2014 Q2.
Product Development: Another of the Company’s products in late-stage development and validation is Cxbladderpredict, which will enable clinicians to determine the severity of bladder cancer disease and enable them to non-invasively segregate superficial tumours from invasive tumours. Launch 2014 Q4.
Priorities in the US: Pacific Edge anticipates continuing and concluding negotiations in earnest with Medicare and Medicaid in 2014. Approximately 115 million U.S. citizens are covered by Medicare and Medicaid.
First Commercial Sales: PED USA’s sales force was on the ground at the start of July, seeking to build relationships with targeted LUG practices. Several of these have now successfully completed their User Programmes and have made their first commercial orders. The first commercially sold tests, processing through the Hershey laboratory, are expected to be monetised in the next few weeks.


:t_up:

[baller18]

Some good new information in the Capital Raising Presentation (click here to view the PDF (https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/184961.pdf)).

These tidbits caught my eye and contained something I didn't know, but there is much more in the document, so do your own research:


Australia: User Program underway in Queensland to evaluate replacement of ultrasound in a clinical setting with Cxbladder.
Spain: Licensed partner Oryzon promoting Cxbladder for recurrence monitoring and targeting sales into public hospital systems early 2014.
Clinical validation: Cxbladder has been validated on 178 patients, recruited in a blinded “User Performance” study from two New Zealand DHB sites (Unpublished as at 23 October 2013). The performance of Cxbladder in this validation setting shows a sensitivity of 90% at a specificity of 75%. Cxbladder has been effectively validated and has an equivalent performance to that seen in the published clinical study (Journal of Urology, September 2012).
Product Development: Pacific Edge’s on-going development programme includes clinical and User Programmes to validate Cxbladdertriage, a new product positioned to enable clinicians to segregate patients who have presented to the clinician with haematuria, who do not have bladder cancer. Launch 2014 Q2.
Product Development: Another of the Company’s products in late-stage development and validation is Cxbladderpredict, which will enable clinicians to determine the severity of bladder cancer disease and enable them to non-invasively segregate superficial tumours from invasive tumours. Launch 2014 Q4.
Priorities in the US: Pacific Edge anticipates continuing and concluding negotiations in earnest with Medicare and Medicaid in 2014. Approximately 115 million U.S. citizens are covered by Medicare and Medicaid.
First Commercial Sales: PED USA’s sales force was on the ground at the start of July, seeking to build relationships with targeted LUG practices. Several of these have now successfully completed their User Programmes and have made their first commercial orders. The first commercially sold tests, processing through the Hershey laboratory, are expected to be monetised in the next few weeks.


:t_up:

An announcement with medicare and Medicaid will really send this stock skyrocketing...

[blobbles]

I don't get it, that media story got the dates wrong, but they don't just make stuff up, am sure someone told them something and they screwed up. Or someone let something slip that March 14 was an important date and they got the reason why wrong. Something smells fishy anyway...

[Bobcat.]

I don't get it, that media story got the dates wrong, but they don't just make stuff up, am sure someone told them something and they screwed up. Or someone let something slip that March 14 was an important date and they got the reason why wrong. Something smells fishy anyway...

Bobbles, it could be as simple as the reporter's Source mentioning that "approvals were obtained in March" which was wrongly interpreted as "approvals will be obtained in March". Investigative journalism here in this country that we both love is afterall a bit sub-standard.

[Toasty]

I liked the bit about being used for product development and product launches. It sounds very definite. Not if but when. The only problem was it wasn't attributed to anyone so it could easily be just column stuffing.

[blobbles]

Bobbles, it could be as simple as the reporter's Source mentioning that "approvals were obtained in March" which was wrongly interpreted as "approvals will be obtained in March". Investigative journalism here in this country that we both love is afterall a bit sub-standard.

Yep, most likely they screwed something up like that, but usually dates are the things they get right and repeat to ensure they get it right. In that case it probably means March next year is a big date for something and they stuffed up the reason why. Hopefully there will be a correction or retraction or something from either the press or management.

[psychic]

Well, wasn't expecting this.
Driving along and this advt pops up on newstalk zb about blood in yer urine. Radio immediately has my attention... . Sure enough, it's PEB suggesting I see the Doc and ask for a cxbladder test (additional charges apply..)
Wasn't expecting marketing to end user but I suppose they may as well.. Certainly our GP knew nothing of the test a month or so ago when asked..

[Mista_Trix]

Well, wasn't expecting this.
Driving along and this advt pops up on newstalk zb about blood in yer urine. Radio immediately has my attention... . Sure enough, it's PEB suggesting I see the Doc and ask for a cxbladder test (additional charges apply..)
Wasn't expecting marketing to end user but I suppose they may as well.. Certainly our GP knew nothing of the test a month or so ago when asked..

Iiiiiinteresting, pushing the product from the top down and the bottom up.

[blobbles]

Pretty big drops the last two days, seems nobody wants to talk about it?

At this rate tracking down for 1.20 tomorrow it seems where there is major resistance, so shouldn't (hopefully) drop any further than that. If it does... well who knows, probably 1.10-1.15 based on people still cashing in rights.

This announcement: https://www.nzx.com/companies/PEB/announcements/243746

doesn't seem to say anything long termers didn't already know, might be a good read for any newbies to understand how they came to where they are.

[Casino]

Spain: Licensed partner Oryzon promoting Cxbladder for recurrence monitoring and targeting sales into public hospital systems early 2014.


Can somebody point me to the details of this arrangement please? How and when is this going impact on cash-flow?

[Copper]

There was an interview reported by the Company late today.I have listened to it and can only say that it is spot on.Balance and Moosie would probably agree on it.For anyone interested in the Company you had better listen.Make up your own mind.It's on the Company website under News.

Regards......

[Casino]

This announcement: https://www.nzx.com/companies/PEB/announcements/243746

doesn't seem to say anything long termers didn't already know,

I thought he was very frank about the possibility of a takeover further down the road.

[TimmyTP]

There was an interview reported by the Company late today.
This was also announced via NZX. I'm curious as to their motivations, since the article is 2 weeks old.
Would they be publicising it now just to keep momentum going for the share price/rights?

Regardless, I agree it is a very good interview (despite there being no revelations in it - I don't think that was the point). I would stay in the elevator for a few trips up and down to hear that pitch.

[Xerof]

There was an interview reported by the Company late today.I have listened to it and can only say that it is spot on.Balance and Moosie would probably agree on it.For anyone interested in the Company you had better listen.Make up your own mind.It's on the Company website under News.

Regards......

Old hat copper, this was posted here weeks ago. Nice reminder of a few salient points though - fought off a T/O already behind the scenes, still confident about the US sales projection etc etc

Bobbles, I mentioned last week there should be selling pressure via the rights by the Nominee who has been given the non-resident rights to quit on market. Would love to know what the volume is expected to be, but guess thats privileged info, for them to know and us to find out. However, seems our "single seller" has returned over the last two days as well.

I also have an unproven theory re these Nominee controlled rights - a large existing holder relentlessly sells the head shares, and quietly picks up the rights + 55 off the Nominee for 5 to 10 cents cheaper than the sold heads

think it goes lower for a while, just on that basis alone

Alright then......discl: I have done this, but I'm not a big holder :sleep:

[dagoldtoof]

Well Im purchasing more besides my rights, bought PEB way long back after reading this forum....and now the fact they are advertising locally on radio has just convinced me to up my holding, ........The product and they way the company is handling all the business deals, and advertising is very professional, it just ticks all the boxes..........its also good to know you have a interest in a company that can saves lives....

[Casino]

Hyperlink: Oryzon to market Cxbladder in Spain and Portugal (https://www.directbroking.co.nz/DirectTrade/dynamic/announcement.aspx?id=2806080)

Hyperlink: Oryzon DX is the in vitro diagnostics service of Oryzon Genomics S.A. (https://www.oryzondx.com/en/home)

Thanks - this was the bit that I was looking for, which isn't of much help:



Under this agreement with Oryzon, Pacific


Edge Limited will receive an undisclosed upfront fee as well as royalties and


sales milestones for diagnostic tests commercialised by Oryzon using Pacific


Edge's technology, Cxbladder.



Any idea if these revenues are factored in en route to 100 million?

[Copper]

Old hat copper, this was posted here weeks ago. Nice reminder of a few salient points though - fought off a T/O already behind the scenes, still confident about the US sales projection etc etc

Bobbles, I mentioned last week there should be selling pressure via the rights by the Nominee who has been given the non-resident rights to quit on market. Would love to know what the volume is expected to be, but guess thats privileged info, for them to know and us to find out. However, seems our "single seller" has returned over the last two days as well.

I also have an unproven theory re these Nominee controlled rights - a large existing holder relentlessly sells the head shares, and quietly picks up the rights + 55 off the Nominee for 5 to 10 cents cheaper than the sold heads

think it goes lower for a while, just on that basis alone

Alright then......discl: I have done this, but I'm not a big holder :sleep:

Point taken Xerof .For overseas holders not under our regulations often take round about ways of sorting things out.My post really was for those who at least want an insight into things and as I said make up your own mind.You would appear to be very keen on developments for "not a big holder"

[nextbigthing]

Well, wasn't expecting this.
Driving along and this advt pops up on newstalk zb about blood in yer urine. Radio immediately has my attention... . Sure enough, it's PEB suggesting I see the Doc and ask for a cxbladder test (additional charges apply..)
Wasn't expecting marketing to end user but I suppose they may as well.. Certainly our GP knew nothing of the test a month or so ago when asked..

I happened to be reading an inflight magazine the other day and what did I see? Whole page Cxbladder advert.

Doctors and urologists will find it pretty hard to ignore if patients are coming in asking about the product.

[Casino]

From the Capital Raising documentation.

Pursue its strategy to achieve NZ$100million of commercial sales of Cxbladder in the U.S. within 5 trading years.

There were some statements recently that this goal could be achieved sooner, while break-even won't happen next year as planned. I'm just wondering how much the Spain deal is worth to them.

[Xerof]

Point taken Xerof .For overseas holders not under our regulations often take round about ways of sorting things out.My post really was for those who at least want an insight into things and as I said make up your own mind.You would appear to be very keen on developments for "not a big holder"

I like to understand market dynamics, esp price action.

trust me, my PEB holdings are modest

[Snow Leopard]

Well, wasn't expecting this.
Driving along and this advt pops up on newstalk zb about blood in yer urine. Radio immediately has my attention... . Sure enough, it's PEB suggesting I see the Doc and ask for a cxbladder test (additional charges apply..)
Wasn't expecting marketing to end user but I suppose they may as well.. Certainly our GP knew nothing of the test a month or so ago when asked..


I happened to be reading an inflight magazine the other day and what did I see? Whole page Cxbladder advert.

Doctors and urologists will find it pretty hard to ignore if patients are coming in asking about the product.

I can just imagine the scene.

Patient: Doc, I have blood in my urine, give me one of these CxBladder tests, I have read about.

Doctor: Sure that will be $550 dollars and when it says you do not have bladder cancer we will still have a poke around inside you.

Patient: Actually I feel better all ready, bye Doc.

Doctor: (to Practice Nurse) Every patient a medical expert these days eh?

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[Poet]

I can just imagine the scene.

Patient: Doc, I have blood in my urine, give me one of these CxBladder tests, I have read about.

Doctor: Sure that will be $550 dollars and when it says you do not have bladder cancer we will still have a poke around inside you.

Patient: Actually I feel better all ready, bye Doc.

Doctor: (to Practice Nurse) Every patient a medical expert these days eh?

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Not so sure PT

I'm imagining it more like

Do you have medical insurance - no? Then choices are poke around inside $1200 (or a very long wait). Cxbladder $550

Do you have medical insurance- yes? Cxbladder (cause the insurance co are tight arses)

Once cancer is eliminated - other possibilities will be first treated with antibiotics - "come back and see me in two weeks if they don't work" then we will have a poke around inside ($1200 or very long wait)

[Xerof]

Well, you are on record as issuing the same statements when the price was 50 cents, so it comes as no surprise to me that you still want to push the same mantra


however, if you read my earlier post, I happen to agree with you on a technical, dynamic basis

[blobbles]

Cxbladder is a screening test and a ‘positive’ or elevated gene expression result would indicate further investigation is required. So a negative result eliminates the need for a full urological workup, hence the volume of tests, financial savings and ease of use.


I aren't 100% convinced this is true. While I believe CxBladder may be used in addition to other tests, CxBladder is NOT 100% proof negative of cancer, from what I have read. Hence a patient could still have cancer, but it may not appear as a positive result in CxBladder, as I understand it. Then from my understanding, if its not 100% proof positive/negative, then doctors, to be sure and to understand what is happening, may order the range of tests they know anyway to find out what's going on. And in this case, its unclear in the clinical pathway where CxBladder falls. And it also maybe unclear to doctors... that's not saying it won't be another tool in the tool belt and sell well or we won't gain clarity in the future. Just saying that there is some uncertainty for me about where it falls and if doctors will recommend the test if its not 100% either way... hence my risk concerns...

[Copper]

I like to understand market dynamics, esp price action.

trust me, my PEB holdings are modest

Good call....market dynamics and price action are real..The problem is the relativity of price as against the reaction to shares like Xero and now possibly Pacific Bio.If you were in Xero you would have been out at 1.50 or 3.00. It went against all predictions ,especially brokers research departments who hadn't heard of it or it wasn't worth worrying about for our managed clients.Recent recommendations are still topsy turvy in broking houses.Against all this is the old punting instinct ,fueled by press,that creates the euphoria that Xero is reborn.Some might say that we are entering the days of Bridgecorps 10%.heaven forbid.I only hope PEB lives up to the expectations.Postings on the site lead to a lot of personal research which may satisfy the individual but the overall picture is what is driving this thing.As I have said before on the Xero site,If you are doubtful ,stay out,otherwise enjoy the ride.Your call.....kind regards.

[zymwh]

i remeber it was 122c two days ago, so i am quite happy with 125c today..and i believe this morning i saw typical market manipulation at 130c (a fake resist point) which tried to cause a panic sell.

[Xerof]

Copper, my long run expectation for PEB is a similar price trajectory to DIL, but I dont expect the same governance issues to spoil the party. I'm not expecting a XRO outcome but will take it if the markets provides it!

[blobbles]

True, see attached results example, there is only a small section of 'Elevated' where further investigation is required.

That's exactly what I mean Hancocks.

You see if CxBladder was 100% proof positive about bladder cancer detection, I would be massively enthusiastic and over the moon. But as I see it, its only a good test. That 10% will be weighing on the mind of doctors if they start recommending it, even if it is picking up some cancers that they are not through cystoscopy as it may be missing ones that they potentially could see using their "mark I eyeball" test. While previous tests have said it has picked up every cancer found in other ways, I aren't sure the tests were stringent enough. That is because PEB have yet to do a massive user test of CxBladder (that they have reported on), the one that gave this result was 168 patients (I believe?), so my statistics tells me that the margin of error is quite large. Hell, the margin of error with political polls is like 4% when they sample thousands of people out of millions. Here we see an incredibly small sample size used to represent more than a million people presenting with hematuria... which concerns me. What if the "inaccuracy" is double what the current tests give us when we use a larger sample size? What if it is half? Then again, will PEB be able to improve on this score of 10% "unsure" results if it is able to build its gene library bigger and bigger, getting more and more accurate? And if this happens, at what sort of rate are we talking? Improving accuracy two fold per 10,000 tests or improving accuracy by 1% every million tests? I think both of these points (the lack of a large scale test and the potential improvement through gene collection) represent real risks and oppourtunities for PEB and we don't know the answer to them yet.

[Longhaul]

Just watched the interview with Mr Darling on YouTube. He sounds like a very clever guy and I can imagine that people have a lot of respect for him. As another poster said, his closing comments about the possibility of a takeover (linked to here (http://youtu.be/BE43Of1TUGY?t=17m58s)) and the benefits of not having VC investors are really interesting. He seems genuine about putting the shareholders first which bodes well for holders.

[blobbles]

The mark 1 eyeball test is Cystoscopy.

Yes, that is what I meant, I was just being cheeky :) . I would also point out, regarding the uptake, that doctors will probably be reluctant to potentially give up a test that they have used for a long time and find reliable (and arguably uses their own skill and is potentially more profitable for them), to go to another test. UNLESS that test is unequivocally up and down better than anything they currently have. Hence the 10% uncertainty values will be making them scratch their heads a bit...

In saying all this, I could be entirely wrong. But this is just my gut feeling. You see, if the test was expected by Pacific Edge to have incredibly fast and amazing uptake, they would be targeting 100m in sales NEXT year, not in 5 years. Because in reality, if you are part of the clinical pathway for all bladder cancer detection, you will have to use the product for all cases of hematuria and reoccurance of bladder cancer. That, I believe, will give you ~2.5 million tests every year (1.825 million for reoccurance, and under a million for all hematuria) which equates to 1+ billion in revenue. But they aren't even talking about these numbers being possible, hence they do not expect fast and amazing uptake. I want to ask, if the test is so good, why don't they expect fast and amazing uptake? What is it that is forcing them into such a lower prediction? Are they being super conservative? Or are they only expecting partial uptake, CxBladder only being another tool in the belt of doctors and not being part of the clinical pathway?

[psychic]

Blobbles
What tests are better than cxbladder please? What does Cx Bladder miss that others pick up?

[fiasco]

Thanks, quite similar messages to his interview he had on Radio Live? or one of those stations about a month or so ago. Almost sounds the same haha.

I like as you said, he does commit to try and steer away from a big multi corporation take over.


Just watched the interview with Mr Darling on YouTube. He sounds like a very clever guy and I can imagine that people have a lot of respect for him. As another poster said, his closing comments about the possibility of a takeover (linked to here (http://youtu.be/BE43Of1TUGY?t=17m58s)) and the benefits of not having VC investors are really interesting. He seems genuine about putting the shareholders first which bodes well for holders.

[psychic]

Oh, I know YOU know Hancocks, I'm wondering what Blobbles thinks.... :)

[blobbles]

Blobbles
What tests are better than cxbladder please? What does Cx Bladder miss that others pick up?

No tests appear to be better than CxBladder. And I understand what you are trying to say - that it is clear that if CxBladder is dramatically better than others for bladder cancer detection, it will replace all the others, despite it not being 100% accurate. And I completely accept this.

But then I would ask you, why isn't David talking about larger numbers? 100 million in 5 years.... if it is replacing all the other tests, we should be hitting 100 million in a single month and damn quickly, likely next year. In that case they should have built a lab to handle 2 million tests a year. They shouldn't need to hire sales people because the products results will simply sell itself.

It is the discrepancy between the actions, the words and the potential market that I find odd. If CxBladder is so amazing and is going to replace the other tests (I aren't saying it is/isn't, but that's what all the current information tells us), they should be building everything around that. They aren't/haven't. And they are the people that have better information than us because they work on the inside. So why is there such a large discrepancy? It could just be that David likes to under promise and over deliver, which in this case he could be shooting himself in the foot. But it could be that they know something we do not, something which they have yet to tell us but may just slide into a release once their capital raising is over... that is what makes me scratch my head a little.

[Balance]

stories change, that's what I buy into. I was wrong about 50 and hopefully I'm wrong about this too!

back to my moose cave before the villagers come...

No problem, Moosie - that's what a market is about.

All I can say is - don't wake up tomorrow, have no stock and find that PEB is subject to a takeover at $3.00 a share.

I certainly will not accept $3.00 but at $10.00, I could be tempted at this point.
:)

[blobbles]

I will be a much happier investor when I see sales numbers indicating dramatic uptake. If I see CxBladder getting into clinical pathways. If I see a user program that covers thousands of test cases and confirms or betters current results.

Until I see those things though, something smells fishy to me in the discrepancy between where they could be if current information is to be believed and their sales target.

[psychic]

They have always been conservative, they are a bunch of Scientists after all. No need to spook the herd by telling the profession to ditch everything it knows and practices I guess? But I understand your thinking and appreciate you putting your concerns out there. Cheers, keep the faith bro.. :)

[Minerbarejet]

CxBladder has been invented and developed to give a better indication of the presence of cancer in the urinary tract than cytology which is the current incumbent but not that reliable. Surely if CxBladder is able to justify its existence by consistently giving more reliable indications than any other method then it logically must replace those methods. If there is any doubt a cystoscopy would be recommended. CxBladder would reduce the number of cystoscopies required if it is found to be more reliable than cytology. There are bound to be more cases of CxBladder finding cancers that cystoscopy doesnt. This will only cement its place in medical practice.
But not being a doctor what would I know:)

[nextbigthing]

Short-term we have traders selling out as Medicaid and Medicare are expected to be completed next year while the sales report is due soon. you can all deride me for this, but its going to go lower, and soon. the market has priced in WAY too much and the sales report will be the catalyst for a drop. traders are also impatient with their hot money flitting from share to share, and we all know they hate waiting and 2014 is aaaaaages away to them, so this will exacerbate the situation. Medicare and Medicaid would be the catalyst for another huge run; they aren't appearing so money is headed elsewhere. if you don't believe me, see QRX.ASX (impatience to the max, with an SPP to boot, just like PEB!)

don't get me wrong, the companies great, but PEB is overpriced right now after a great run and were going to witness some profit taking, which started today. the market oscillates between extremes, and right now were heading back to some sort of mean level. I'm always watching for a great entry on this one, but that time is not right now for me thanks.

now, let the mud slinging start!

Moosie short term I think you might be right. I think people are factoring in reasonable sales already and they will be in for a shock when the results are released with very little in them. However anything other than the very short term I believe is very bright. The announcents for DHB's and medicare etc will come in time and to be honest I'd rather be in before.

[blobbles]

Thanks Blobbles, good discussion, I appreciate that. Doctors refer patients to Urologists; however, with the Cxbladder test a GP can do a screening test in their practice rooms and it is a replacement for Cytology (laboratory test on a urine sample with a microscope). The uptake that PEL are targeting are the Urologists and they need to change the clinical pathway, that is where the effort of the sales team is now, it is well received by the LUGS that are part of the ‘User Program’.

Cxbladder:


Helps your doctor identify if you have a high probability of bladder cancer.
Helps your doctor rule out the presence of bladder cancer.
Identifies patients who require further diagnostic procedures.

If your doctor has any reason to suspect you have bladder cancer, they may use Cxbladder to:


Complement cystoscopy for bladder cancer detection.
Reduce the need for other urine based tests or CT Scans.
Help detect cancers not always visible by cystoscopy.

Other applications may include:


Complement cystoscopy for monitoring bladder cancer recurrence.
Increase the interval between surveillance cystoscopies in some instances.



Where is your information that it is "well received by the LUGS"? I didn't even know they had got there yet...

It would be good if CxBladder was done by GPs, but then what do they do with the result, if they know that there is a 10% of questionable results. Likely for the 10% they will still refer them directly to a urologist too, which will then involve cystoscopy. But as it is a "sliding scale" type result, GPs would probably be scratching their heads about where PEB places their cutoffs between the normal and elevated gene expressions. At which point they may send them to a urologist anyway just to be ultra risk averse.

Although it would be awesome for the other 80% of cases where it hits the high gene expression because they can start treatment quicker, get a result that indicates cancer stage etc all fast and with seemingly high accuracy.

Another thing about cytology though is that it checks for other things, not just bladder cancer and the other things are much more likely to occur than bladder cancer (urinary tract invections, inflammation etc). So in my view, it is NOT a replacement for cytology at the GP level, which will be done to detect the other causes of hematuria. They should qualify their statements "as a replacement for cytology" by saying "as a replacement for cytology for the detection of bladder cancer". Hence GPs will most likely order cytology anyway.

[Xerof]

Its likely to complete one of these....probably the flag. That should cover this rights trading period, and sales update nicely

nothing dramatic, calm down Bobbles :D

[blobbles]

And its good to be able to have a rational discussion about this now, I think when I was saying these things before, everyone was on a euphoric high, so were thinking I was down ramping because I kept my feet on the ground :)

[nextbigthing]

I can just imagine the scene.

Patient: Doc, I have blood in my urine, give me one of these CxBladder tests, I have read about.

Doctor: Sure that will be $550 dollars and when it says you do not have bladder cancer we will still have a poke around inside you.

Patient: Actually I feel better all ready, bye Doc.

Doctor: (to Practice Nurse) Every patient a medical expert these days eh?

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Sorry PT, I'm with Poet on this one.

Here's a scenario for you....

A nice chap called 'cardboard lion' discovers blood in his urine whilst marking out his territory one day. Off to the doctor he goes and is terrified to hear that he could have cancer. "Dear Lord" says the lion, "I'd pay $10000 right now just to know whether I had cancer or not!" The doctor takes him up on that offer, the lion pays $10000 and pees into a cup and eventually is cleared of having cancer. The doctor pays PEB $550 and pockets the rest. Cardboard Lion decides this was a great thing and buys some PEB shares. An unrelated person called 'last small item' sees the shareprice go from his entry price of 50c to $5.00 and upgrades his Ferrari. They all live happily ever after.

Nextbigthing

[blobbles]

They have always been conservative, they are a bunch of Scientists after all. No need to spook the herd by telling the profession to ditch everything it knows and practices I guess? But I understand your thinking and appreciate you putting your concerns out there. Cheers, keep the faith bro.. :)

I am keeping partially faithful though, but faith requires belief in something you can't prove. There is no need for faith for this as we will be proved one way or the other! :)

My concern is their level of conservativeness... its by a factor of 10 at least, as far as I can see. That scares me a little. I never tell my boss I will only deliver 10% of my potential, I tell him at least 25% :) :) :)

[Minerbarejet]

I am keeping partially faithful though, but faith requires belief in something you can't prove. There is no need for faith for this as we will be proved one way or the other! :)

My concern is their level of conservativeness... its by a factor of 10 at least, as far as I can see. That scares me a little. I never tell my boss I will only deliver 10% of my potential, I tell him at least 25% :) :) :)
Jeez I dunno Blobbles, on the one hand you tell everyone to watch out and keep their feet on the ground and on the other you cant figure out why they are being conservative. They always have been - one carefully planned step at a time- its worked so far.:)
Noah fence:)

[Snow Leopard]

Sorry PT, I'm with Poet on this one.

Here's a scenario for you....

A nice chap called 'cardboard lion' discovers blood in his urine whilst marking out his territory one day. Off to the doctor he goes and is terrified to hear that he could have cancer. "Dear Lord" says the lion, "I'd pay $10000 right now just to know whether I had cancer or not!" The doctor takes him up on that offer, the lion pays $10000 and pees into a cup and eventually is cleared of having cancer. The doctor pays PEB $550 and pockets the rest. Cardboard Lion decides this was a great thing and buys some PEB shares. An unrelated person called 'last small item' sees the shareprice go from his entry price of 50c to $5.00 and upgrades his Ferrari. They all live happily ever after.

Nextbigthing

Nice idea, but it does not work like that. My fathers experience was not that they specifically tested for bladder cancer as a result of his first visit.


Lets go back to the 1,000,000 men with blood in the urine who go to the doctors.

What I have been trying to ascertain is how many of them will be tested specifically for bladder cancer.
As far as I understand it the doctor initially asks various questions, probably does a physical exam and possibly a bit of poking and probably a cytology test because that indicates a number of possible issues (infections, cancers ?).
He would only order a specific check for bladder cancer (cystoscopy/CxBladder) on the result of this initial assessment.
If this is correct then the market is not 1,000,000 tests but somewhat smaller.

For those diagnosed with bladder cancer (70,000 pa) then there is the market of regular testing over the next few years in addition to that.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[MAC]

For those whom may be unsure of the technology can I suggest that such a discussion on this forum may not be your best source of medical clarification as very few on this forum are medically qualified.

Very often we see Hancock’s kindly and charitably stepping in to correct misunderstandings, which if I may suggest, most of us greatly appreciate acknowledging it must be a burden at times, thank you Hancock’s.

There are sources of medical information on the matter which anyone can access, the cxbladder website, the journal of urology article, the clinical study results, or if you are particularly committed to understanding the technology you may like to go out and find a urologist with whom to consult.

As to what the market thinks of the technology, certainly the good medical analysts within the two insurers signed up thus far are sufficiently convinced to buy into both the effectiveness and the capability of cxbladder, it also seems that the medical analysts at Medicare and Medicaid may also be close to the same conclusion. It would be hard to find a better endorsement in practice.

[blobbles]

For those whom may be unsure of the technology can I suggest that such a discussion on this forum may not be your best source of medical clarification as very few on this forum are medically qualified.

Very often we see Hancock’s kindly and charitably stepping in to correct misunderstandings, which if I may suggest, most of us greatly appreciate acknowledging it must be a burden at times, thank you Hancock’s.

There are sources of medical information on the matter which anyone can access, the cxbladder website, the journal of urology article, the clinical study results, or if you are particularly committed to understanding the technology you may like to go out and find a urologist with whom to consult.

As to what the market thinks of the technology, certainly the good medical analysts within the two insurers signed up thus far are sufficiently convinced to buy into both the effectiveness and the capability of cxbladder, it also seems that the medical analysts at Medicare and Medicaid may also be close to the same conclusion. It would be hard to find a better endorsement in practice.

Sorry, but I disagree. Although we are not medical professionals, we are still fairly intelligent people who can think rationally. Giving advice to not understand the product the company sells who you want to/are invested in, or to not talk to others about the product to enhance your understanding, I would suggest is poor advice.

If you go to the XRO thread, you will notice lots of talk about the accounting functions of the product by people who aren't accountants (and some that are). If you go to the HNZ thread you will notice lots of talk about their products. The same for pretty much all companies.

Also - does anyone know what the evaluation methods are for medical insurers to who are signed up? I assume they are stringent, but anyone who really knows? Is it full of experienced doctors who evaluate each product (and hence a signup is seen as an endorsement) or is it just checking the supplier has passed certain tests (like CLIA registration) then rubber stamping them? Or something in-between?

[psychic]

You are possibly right to worry so Bobbles, but how do you sleep questioning as much as you do?

[Dentie]

I am keeping partially faithful though, but faith requires belief in something you can't prove. There is no need for faith for this as we will be proved one way or the other! :)

My concern is their level of conservativeness... its by a factor of 10 at least, as far as I can see. That scares me a little. I never tell my boss I will only deliver 10% of my potential, I tell him at least 25% :) :) :)

This tells me a bit Blobbles. Don't want to be accused of attacking etc ...but I have been evaluating this thread for quite some months and have noticed the steady increase of conservatism in your comments regarding the possibilities of success of CxBladder. All this while I was assuming you must be your own boss and in business and have actually experienced what PEB and its business is going through - developing what appears to be a marvellous product and now working very hard to bring it to their biggest customer bases in the world. They have methodically gone (& continue to go) through their process to delivery. I bet PEB employees are striving to deliver 100% for their company and shareholders!!

I can tell you it is not easy developing a business from the square wheel stage through to delivery and beyond - especially when you have to take it offshore to get maximum uptake. PEB have done a brilliant job so far - and they don't appear to have missed any of their forecasted steps so far. It is almost like you are trying to talk yourself out of holding the stock?

Shareholders don't have to understand the intracacies of their businesses product (although it is a bonus if you do). They need to trust their Board, CEO and employees that they have the expertise to deliver. So far, I have seen nothing that PEB have done to betray that trust - except for me to want to own more of their stock. Sometimes, having a bit of knowledge can actually be detrimental to the cause. Some time ago I made the almost fatal mistake of studying up the online medical dictionaries and expertise. I had made a self diagnosis of having a cancerous brain tumour and demanded an MRI scan ... only to find I had tweaked a bone in my neck!

Have a bit of faith in what PEB are doing and you may just make some money. If one applied your level of disection and conservatism to every listing on the exchange, you could bring down the whole sharemarket overnight.

Don't scare the horses Blobbles.

[Minerbarejet]

Where is your information that it is "well received by the LUGS"? I didn't even know they had got there yet...

It would be good if CxBladder was done by GPs, but then what do they do with the result, if they know that there is a 10% of questionable results. Likely for the 10% they will still refer them directly to a urologist too, which will then involve cystoscopy. But as it is a "sliding scale" type result, GPs would probably be scratching their heads about where PEB places their cutoffs between the normal and elevated gene expressions. At which point they may send them to a urologist anyway just to be ultra risk averse.

Although it would be awesome for the other 80% of cases where it hits the high gene expression because they can start treatment quicker, get a result that indicates cancer stage etc all fast and with seemingly high accuracy.

Another thing about cytology though is that it checks for other things, not just bladder cancer and the other things are much more likely to occur than bladder cancer (urinary tract invections, inflammation etc). So in my view, it is NOT a replacement for cytology at the GP level, which will be done to detect the other causes of hematuria. They should qualify their statements "as a replacement for cytology" by saying "as a replacement for cytology for the detection of bladder cancer". Hence GPs will most likely order cytology anyway.Sorry, must have missed something, where did the 10% questionable results come from?

[Copper]

Its likely to complete one of these....probably the flag. That should cover this rights trading period, and sales update nicely

nothing dramatic, calm down Bobbles :D

Nice post amongst all the medical stuff.Looks good.Hope either eventuates.

[Dentie]

Among other events, these give me confidence Blobbles ....

https://www.nzx.com/companies/PEB/announcements/242562

https://www.nzx.com/companies/PEB/announcements/242437

Mind you, they could be lying to us with all these public announcements .... the truth could be different. As a shareholder, from a business perspective at least, I am satisfied with their current progress. As for the scientific side of things, well, I'll leave that to you and others to argue out - I simply have no knowledge whatsoever on that. I am just trusting they know their expertise in CxBladder & the rest to follow.

[nextbigthing]

Hancocks, what are your thoughts on this?

PT I agree working out likely customers/test numbers is vital. However I feel that if doctors have a relatively cheap, accurate, fast and painless method of ruling out bladder cancer then they will be inclined to use it.


Nice idea, but it does not work like that. My fathers experience was not that they specifically tested for bladder cancer as a result of his first visit.


Lets go back to the 1,000,000 men with blood in the urine who go to the doctors.

What I have been trying to ascertain is how many of them will be tested specifically for bladder cancer.
As far as I understand it the doctor initially asks various questions, probably does a physical exam and possibly a bit of poking and probably a cytology test because that indicates a number of possible issues (infections, cancers ?).
He would only order a specific check for bladder cancer (cystoscopy/CxBladder) on the result of this initial assessment.
If this is correct then the market is not 1,000,000 tests but somewhat smaller.

For those diagnosed with bladder cancer (70,000 pa) then there is the market of regular testing over the next few years in addition to that.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[skid]

For those whom may be unsure of the technology can I suggest that such a discussion on this forum may not be your best source of medical clarification as very few on this forum are medically qualified.

Very often we see Hancock’s kindly and charitably stepping in to correct misunderstandings, which if I may suggest, most of us greatly appreciate acknowledging it must be a burden at times, thank you Hancock’s.

There are sources of medical information on the matter which anyone can access, the cxbladder website, the journal of urology article, the clinical study results, or if you are particularly committed to understanding the technology you may like to go out and find a urologist with whom to consult.

As to what the market thinks of the technology, certainly the good medical analysts within the two insurers signed up thus far are sufficiently convinced to buy into both the effectiveness and the capability of cxbladder, it also seems that the medical analysts at Medicare and Medicaid may also be close to the same conclusion. It would be hard to find a better endorsement in practice.

Ideally what you need is a urologist and a psychologist:p

[nextbigthing]

Here's another way to look at it anyway, to get their target of $100m

100 000 000 ÷ 700 = 143 000 odd tests. Therefore 14% or approx one in seven people of the original 1m with blood.

That's just the US market.

[Harvey Specter]

Bobbles - XRO has a target of 1m customers even though it's current share price assumes 4m.

I am happy to value a company on conservative numbers. As Rachel once said, "it won't happen overnight...."

[Balance]

5 more days of rights trading.

Those who have been around know that share prices generally weaken in the middle of rights trading as holders receive their notice of entitlements and some sell, then firm up when the longer term holders take the opportunity to build up their stakes.

So I am expecting 2 more days of weakness, then strength next week before rights trading stop on Wednesday.

[chad321]

Should I have received my letter in the post yet? (Living in Auckland). Haven't heard anything about my rights entitlement. When do you we have to apply by and do we do that via sending a letter or is there an easier way?

[Balance]

Should I have received my letter in the post yet? (Living in Auckland). Haven't heard anything about my rights entitlement. When do you we have to apply by and do we do that via sending a letter or is there an easier way?

Go to Link and you will find out your entitlement.

You should receive your letter by tomorrow is what I was told.

[Minerbarejet]

Mine just arrived:):):)

[winner69]

Among other events, these give me confidence Blobbles ....

https://www.nzx.com/companies/PEB/announcements/242562

https://www.nzx.com/companies/PEB/announcements/242437

Mind you, they could be lying to us with all these public announcements .... the truth could be different. As a shareholder, from a business perspective at least, I am satisfied with their current progress. As for the scientific side of things, well, I'll leave that to you and others to argue out - I simply have no knowledge whatsoever on that. I am just trusting they know their expertise in CxBladder & the rest to follow.

Funny you should make such a statement dentie

As time goes on that is how I feel to some extent .... Wouldn't say lying but somehow things just seem to feel right ......I been around a long time and my gut feel about PEB is telling me be careful ...maybe it is all too good to be true.

So keeping a very close eye on those charts just in case ...wouldn't want to lose everything

[MAC]

Funny you should make such a statement dentie

As time goes on that is how I feel to some extent .... Wouldn't say lying but somehow things just seem to feel right ......I been around a long time and my gut feel about PEB is telling me be careful ...maybe it is all too good to be true.

So keeping a very close eye on those charts just in case ...wouldn't want to lose everything

It’s hard to doubt the independent clinical trials though really isn’t it Winner, they are independent after all. Let alone all the scrutinizing health professionals within the DHB’s and LUG’s performing their user trials, and of course all those smart medical analysts within the big US insurance companies evaluating away. Not to mention the academics at the journal of urology and all their professional and academic readers.

I’m not a medical professional but I do take some confidence in knowing that such a diversity of experts have scrutinised and do appear to be endorsing the cxbladder product.

[goldfish]

I got it all in mail today...anyone else applying for 100% of oversubscription or is that a no brainer...

[MAC]

There is no doubt it is a great product and the proffesionals are endorsing it, BUT is there a place big enough in the system for it's use that will turn it into a profitable business.
Whilst it is a great product it does look like there is wide limitation to it's use.

A clinically evaluated product with regulatory approvals which offers a 30% economic discount to present practices inherently should IMHO perform very well in the market place, there are risks with all ventures and time will be the ultimate teller but PEB are very well placed to achieve indeed.

What I see when I look at PEB is a very well managed company, an understated culture as Dentie suggests which I like, fantastic technical innovation, and an exceptional record of meeting commercialisation objectives. All the elements necessary in the making of a success story.

[winner69]

It’s hard to doubt the independent clinical trials though really isn’t it Winner, they are independent after all. Let alone all the scrutinizing health professionals within the DHB’s and LUG’s performing their user trials, and of course all those smart medical analysts within the big US insurance companies evaluating away. Not to mention the academics at the journal of urology and all their professional and academic readers.

I’m not a medical professional but I do take some confidence in knowing that such a diversity of experts have scrutinised and do appear to be endorsing the cxbladder product.

Hey come on mac ....wasn't saying it was a con or anything. Prob agree with some others is this as big as the monster it is made out to be.

It just concerns me when a stream of "no news" (a term used by a renowned poster on this thread) announcements are made. Then again what was the purpose of today's announcement? Just doesn't make me any more comfortable.

Unless a good reason to participate in a rights issue (yes the greed of a quick buck) usually don't participate - remember giving Pike River some cash once but they came with some valuable options that weren't priced in to the rights price.

Anyway that is how I feel ......hate to lose what the free PEB shares are worth though.

[Harvey Specter]

I got it all in mail today...anyone else applying for 100% of oversubscription or is that a no brainer...In theory a no brainer IMHO but expect it to be heavily scaled so may tie up your cash for minimal benefit.

[winner69]

Winner69 Bryan Williams is a director of Pacific Edge Limted.

Yeah I know that

Meant yesterday's announcement ....way they appear on nzx end of day not always clear. Sorry about the confusion

So why put this announcement up yesterday
https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/185138.pdf

[Schrodinger]

This tells me a bit Blobbles. Don't want to be accused of attacking etc ...but I have been evaluating this thread for quite some months and have noticed the steady increase of conservatism in your comments regarding the possibilities of success of CxBladder. All this while I was assuming you must be your own boss and in business and have actually experienced what PEB and its business is going through - developing what appears to be a marvellous product and now working very hard to bring it to their biggest customer bases in the world. They have methodically gone (& continue to go) through their process to delivery. I bet PEB employees are striving to deliver 100% for their company and shareholders!!

I can tell you it is not easy developing a business from the square wheel stage through to delivery and beyond - especially when you have to take it offshore to get maximum uptake. PEB have done a brilliant job so far - and they don't appear to have missed any of their forecasted steps so far. It is almost like you are trying to talk yourself out of holding the stock?

Shareholders don't have to understand the intracacies of their businesses product (although it is a bonus if you do). They need to trust their Board, CEO and employees that they have the expertise to deliver. So far, I have seen nothing that PEB have done to betray that trust - except for me to want to own more of their stock. Sometimes, having a bit of knowledge can actually be detrimental to the cause. Some time ago I made the almost fatal mistake of studying up the online medical dictionaries and expertise. I had made a self diagnosis of having a cancerous brain tumour and demanded an MRI scan ... only to find I had tweaked a bone in my neck!

Have a bit of faith in what PEB are doing and you may just make some money. If one applied your level of disection and conservatism to every listing on the exchange, you could bring down the whole sharemarket overnight.

Don't scare the horses Blobbles.

With respect I havent seen any sales figures to "trust" the management team. Just remember that NZ companies are terrible at commercialisation.

[Dentie]

With respect I havent seen any sales figures to "trust" the management team. Just remember that NZ companies are terrible at commercialisation.

Hi Schrodinger - yes, totally understand what you are saying here. But, I guess what I was trying to get at in my above post was because they have done everything what they said they would from development right through to commercialisation and marketing, sign ups etc, I haven't seen anything to NOT trust them to deliver on the bottom line. I just expect to see sales naturally occur - remember they are in the very early stages. It may have been different if the big sign up's had said "we are interested in buying CxBladder, but we won't sign up until we see some sales to others first". Geez, someone has to be first and kick things off. I don't expect it will be too long before LUG's, the VA and Medicaid etc also sign up ....and then sales will just automatically occur.

Now, PEB are just letting their product do the talking ... as opposed to Mr Darling copying other CEO's that may talk the product up.

I'm very relaxed with where things are at - seem to be ahead of time actually, which is what Andrew Bascand from harbour Asset Management said the other day.

Best regards

[Schrodinger]

Yes so far so good. I appreciate your enthusiasim for the company.

The real rubber hits the road now. Let me put it this way, the true value of PEB will be able to be determined by the way they commercialise in the next 2 years. Set this up correctly and this will be a huge company. However NZ to USA companies are littered with failures so this potential has to be put into reality. One way to mitigate this risk is to give the Amercian's some skin in the game i.e. what Xero have done with Peter Theil. Look into that example and you will see how valuable it is to have a US citizen helping you with the "big game".

In the end cashflow generation will be where trust is built between shareholders and management. I would suggest to anyone to read past all the"hype" and follow the money.

Awaiting the half year announcement with interest.

[winner69]

With respect I havent seen any sales figures to "trust" the management team. Just remember that NZ companies are terrible at commercialisation.

That's a worry for me too.

That is why best outcome for shareholders is probably a big takeover in the early stages ......no matter what balance and others will say about that

[psychic]

Wonderfully put Hancocks :)

[Dentie]

Yes so far so good. I appreciate your enthusiasim for the company.

The real rubber hits the road now. Let me put it this way, the true value of PEB will be able to be determined by the way they commercialise in the next 2 years. Set this up correctly and this will be a huge company. However NZ to USA companies are littered with failures so this potential has to be put into reality. One way to mitigate this risk is to give the Amercian's some skin in the game i.e. what Xero have done with Peter Theil. Look into that example and you will see how valuable it is to have a US citizen helping you with the "big game".

In the end cashflow generation will be where trust is built between shareholders and management. I would suggest to anyone to read past all the"hype" and follow the money.

Awaiting the half year announcement with interest.

Would a similar "contrarian" example be akin to Larry Ellison giving the likes of Russell Coutts, Jimmy Spithall and Ben Ainslie and the Kiwi boatbuilders "some skin" in the recent America's Cup "game". Are you suggesting only by allowing Americans "some skin" on the "game" will PEB be allowed to pull this off in America? Sorry mate - but that sounds a bit arrogant and it's just the sort of comment that'll fire up that PEB mob. Remember, Kiwi's are not afraid to swim against the tide on occasion - it is when we are at our best!

Has Peter Thiel been invited into XRO because he is an American - or because he has loads of dosh looking for a home?

I reckon the final say might come down to those poor buggers who are facing bladder cancer ......... I know what diagnostic option they will pick!

[winner69]

For those that have abstract issues, dilemmas, perceived problems and conspiracy theories, I suggest you customise your investment level in Pacific Edge Limited to suit and that could be to ignore it totally.

I’m invested in Pacific Edge Limited to the extent my knowledge of the company and product and I’m very comfortable with that.

Bit grumpy today are we Hancocks

[Minerbarejet]

Jackie Walker, the CEO of PEB's American subsidiary, PEDUSA, is an American is she not?
There is your "skin in the game, as you put it"
Its not like we have a bunch of half baked scarfies running around saying "give it a go, bro" and then riding off into the sunset dressed in a raincoat clutching a Speights saying "good on yer mate":)

[barney]

The Americans do have skin in the game. Pacific Edge Diagnostics USA is managed and run by Americans, from the CEO down. It's not a case of NZers planting themselves in the US and trying to learn how to operate.

[winner69]

For those that have abstract issues, dilemmas, perceived problems and conspiracy theories, I suggest you customise your investment level in Pacific Edge Limited to suit and that could be to ignore it totally.

I’m invested in Pacific Edge Limited to the extent my knowledge of the company and product and I’m very comfortable with that.

Thank you for your advice Hancocks

I take heart from Balance when he tells me that the Jury is out on DD but I think the directors of PEB understood DD's limitations and that's why you have a good management team, a Board and an Advisory Board with real depth and commercial experience in the US.

Any way I only have small % of what you have so don't feel so emotionally attached as a real 'owner' of PEB ..... to me is still just a good story where money might be made .... a heathen eh .....but in the circumstances will remit my 15k to takes up the rights .... hope it has a better outcome than Pike River

Still not entirely convinced ..... and still wonder why they put the transcript of that Andrew Patterson interview out as a NZX announcement

[Snow Leopard]

Firstly a long overdue thank you to Hancocks from me:

Thank you Hancocks for all you that have put up on this thread.

I was reasonably happy with the price of PEB until a month ago when it doubled and then some and then they announced the capital raising and now I find myself not being reasonably happy at all. (This is in a PEB context, you understand, in real life all I need is a tuna sandwich for true contentment).

PEB had their plan which was that they had enough money to see the roll out of CxBladder in the USA.
Then they take on board a team of American salesmen.
Then they want more money to 'accelerate' the roll-out, because they can get there quicker.
I think they have fallen for the American sales-pitch.

Now I have worked for technology companies, indeed I have worked for American technology companies and rule number two is take the sales predictions and cut them severely. Salesmen are eternal optimists and I have never dealt with a sales team who have hit their forecasts.

So at the end of day I have factored in the share dilution, the quicker spend on cash on S&M (Sales & Marketing!) and brought the sales curve forward. I have assumed that ANZ & Spain will follow the USA growth curve.
I know how massive gross margins magically shrink by the time you have paid all the bills, and have written off future R&D (Reseach & Development) costs.

I have not factored in any further commercial products which would almost certainly reduce short-term profits and increase long term profits so I am willing to deem them neutral at this point over the time frame I am considering.

So 100K tests in the US in 2017 (120K worldwide), 200K tests in 2020 (240K) world wide and maintaining market share there after
and bingo my current value of PEB is

$0.78

Target valuations are:
$0.827 at 31/03/2014 and
$0.991 at 31/03/2015 << corrected !!

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[Balance]

So 100K tests in the US in 2017 (120K worldwide), 200K tests in 2020 (240K) world wide and maintaining market share there after
and bingo my current value of PEB is

$0.78

Target valuations are:
$0.827 at 31/03/2014 and
$0.991 at 31/03/2015 << corrected !!

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Best short in the market then.

Go for it, PT.

[Dentie]

Firstly a long overdue thank you to Hancocks from me:

Thank you Hancocks for all you that have put up on this thread.

I was reasonably happy with the price of PEB until a month ago when it doubled and then some and then they announced the capital raising and now I find myself not being reasonably happy at all. (This is in a PEB context, you understand, in real life all I need is a tuna sandwich for true contentment).

PEB had their plan which was that they had enough money to see the roll out of CxBladder in the USA.
Then they take on board a team of American salesmen.
Then they want more money to 'accelerate' the roll-out, because they can get there quicker.
I think they have fallen for the American sales-pitch.

Now I have worked for technology companies, indeed I have worked for American technology companies and rule number two is take the sales predictions and cut them severely. Salesmen are eternal optimists and I have never dealt with a sales team who have hit their forecasts.

So at the end of day I have factored in the share dilution, the quicker spend on cash on S&M (Sales & Marketing!) and brought the sales curve forward. I have assumed that ANZ & Spain will follow the USA growth curve.
I know how massive gross margins magically shrink by the time you have paid all the bills, and have written off future R&D (Reseach & Development) costs.

I have not factored in any further commercial products which would almost certainly reduce short-term profits and increase long term profits so I am willing to deem them neutral at this point over the time frame I am considering.

So 100K tests in the US in 2017 (120K worldwide), 200K tests in 2020 (240K) world wide and maintaining market share there after
and bingo my current value of PEB is

$0.78

Target valuations are:
$0.827 at 31/03/2014 and
$0.899 at 31/03/2015

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Thanks PT - I too was concerned when they employed "American Salesmen" but after reading the documents I see they are paid as if they were Kiwi salespersons...that is "on performance based targets". I like this because it doesn't pay wages for people who are all mouth and no performance. If you are a good salesman with an excellent product to sell - you will make a good income! And I bet the good sales people are jumping over themselves to sell PEB products. I tell you what, I am not a professional salesperson, but I bet I could sell CxBladder.

Pardon me for asking, but are you currently holding PEB stock?

[Casino]

Firstly a long overdue thank you to Hancocks from me:

Thank you Hancocks for all you that have put up on this thread.

I was reasonably happy with the price of PEB until a month ago when it doubled and then some and then they announced the capital raising and now I find myself not being reasonably happy at all. (This is in a PEB context, you understand, in real life all I need is a tuna sandwich for true contentment).

PEB had their plan which was that they had enough money to see the roll out of CxBladder in the USA.
Then they take on board a team of American salesmen.
Then they want more money to 'accelerate' the roll-out, because they can get there quicker.
I think they have fallen for the American sales-pitch.

Now I have worked for technology companies, indeed I have worked for American technology companies and rule number two is take the sales predictions and cut them severely. Salesmen are eternal optimists and I have never dealt with a sales team who have hit their forecasts.

So at the end of day I have factored in the share dilution, the quicker spend on cash on S&M (Sales & Marketing!) and brought the sales curve forward. I have assumed that ANZ & Spain will follow the USA growth curve.
I know how massive gross margins magically shrink by the time you have paid all the bills, and have written off future R&D (Reseach & Development) costs.

I have not factored in any further commercial products which would almost certainly reduce short-term profits and increase long term profits so I am willing to deem them neutral at this point over the time frame I am considering.

So 100K tests in the US in 2017 (120K worldwide), 200K tests in 2020 (240K) world wide and maintaining market share there after
and bingo my current value of PEB is

$0.78

Target valuations are:
$0.827 at 31/03/2014 and
$0.899 at 31/03/2015

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger


Thanks for breaking this down and providing a tractable valuation. This announcement should have alerted people to cap raising:

https://www.nzx.com/companies/PEB/announcements/238430

Anyway, one thing to consider is the value that Cxbladder (and the additional products) would have in the hands of a big pharma player. Given enough resources, you could achieve higher market penetration in a lot more places in a much shorter timeframe.

[MAC]

It is a shame you have been such a long term critic of PEB Paper Tiger, to hold such negativity for so long is disappointing and must be a burden for you.

Your figures are incorrect or conservatively low or both.

PEB's target of NZ$100M by 2017, probably sooner now with the additional capital and sales force, equates to 140,000 tests per annum not the 100,000 in your analysis.

This target represents only a 7.5% market share to be achieved 4 to 5 years from now.

I suspect your conservatism is also extreme in consideration and comparison to what similar biotech companies achieve in terms of gross margins a few years into commercialisation.

[Snow Leopard]

Best short in the market then.

Go for it, PT.

That is my valuation and not the markets, whilst it is a big influence on whether one is willing to buy at the present, it does indicate that taking up one's rights is a good bet and how quick to sell if the TA turn against PEB


...Pardon me for asking, but are you currently holding PEB stock?

I do not divulge my holding or non-holding in PEB as per my agreement with Balance.


...This announcement should have alerted people to cap raising:

https://www.nzx.com/companies/PEB/announcements/238430

Yes, easy to find meanings in hindsight.


Anyway, one thing to consider is the value that Cxbladder (and the additional products) would have in the hands of a big pharma player. Given enough resources, you could achieve higher market penetration in a lot more places in a much shorter timeframe.

That is a possible scenario as is abject failure you have to balance these things out in your evaluations.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[Casino]

That is a possible scenario as is abject failure you have to balance these things out in your evaluations.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Don't get me wrong, I think your caution is absolutely warranted. A lot of things can happen till the end of this decade and it's wise to wait for signs of commercial success.

[Dentie]

I do not divulge my holding or non-holding in PEB as per my agreement with Balance.

Nice one - wouldn't want to breach the agreement you have with Balance. Just trying to work out whether you were just biffing grenades from behind the parapet for the hell of it or whether you also had your nuts on the line. Nothing like a committed shareholder (or not!). Also difficult to apply credibility to someone's comments if there is no equal disclosure. Cheers.

[psychic]

Bit harsh PT!
PEB's US market size is 2.0m+ tests. You don't think the sales boys will be able to sell more than 100000 when the tests are cheaper/ more accurate/ less invasive? I seem to recall seeing they have an incentive plan of share options @ 54 cents stirring them along if the product doesn't move itself...

[Minerbarejet]

Think I will take the middle ground on this.
Based on PTs assessment of .78 cents and the 1.75 peak then we are left at the 1.25 -1.30 range.
Omg, no it cant be:)

[Harvey Specter]

Maybe the reason their S&M based costs are expected to be higher than original forecast is BECAUSE they are performance based. :)

[False Profit]

Documents have arrived in the post today...pay up!

[mcdongle]

I think everyone will just have to WAIT AND SEE HOW THINGS PLAY OUT . There is not a lot else anyone of us can do. Position yourselves how you see fit .

[Iolite]

I noticed the postal address for the company is St David Street... could this be a portent of things to come? :p

[blobbles]

This tells me a bit Blobbles. Don't want to be accused of attacking etc ...but I have been evaluating this thread for quite some months and have noticed the steady increase of conservatism in your comments regarding the possibilities of success of CxBladder. All this while I was assuming you must be your own boss and in business and have actually experienced what PEB and its business is going through - developing what appears to be a marvellous product and now working very hard to bring it to their biggest customer bases in the world. They have methodically gone (& continue to go) through their process to delivery. I bet PEB employees are striving to deliver 100% for their company and shareholders!!

I can tell you it is not easy developing a business from the square wheel stage through to delivery and beyond - especially when you have to take it offshore to get maximum uptake. PEB have done a brilliant job so far - and they don't appear to have missed any of their forecasted steps so far. It is almost like you are trying to talk yourself out of holding the stock?

Shareholders don't have to understand the intracacies of their businesses product (although it is a bonus if you do). They need to trust their Board, CEO and employees that they have the expertise to deliver. So far, I have seen nothing that PEB have done to betray that trust - except for me to want to own more of their stock. Sometimes, having a bit of knowledge can actually be detrimental to the cause. Some time ago I made the almost fatal mistake of studying up the online medical dictionaries and expertise. I had made a self diagnosis of having a cancerous brain tumour and demanded an MRI scan ... only to find I had tweaked a bone in my neck!

Have a bit of faith in what PEB are doing and you may just make some money. If one applied your level of disection and conservatism to every listing on the exchange, you could bring down the whole sharemarket overnight.

Don't scare the horses Blobbles.

I aren't trying to scare anyone, just giving people my risk averse viewpoints. PEB, like others have mentioned, are yet to make sales in a big way. While this may happen, it still may not. Being prepared for both possibilities and trying to see both possibilities clearer (not just the possibility of success) I think makes you a better investor. Even with skin in the game you should not discount that something is overvalued and that your investment is at risk. I have read back over the RAK thread recently and saw one hell of a lot of people that were absolutely sure they were holding at least a 3-5 bagger around the time of their IPO when their shares were at $2-3 because RAK had a superior product and massive growth potential and were even making sales which were going up by big %'s every year... Paper Tiger even mentioned in one of his posts on RAK (#37) that they had "good management", so I guess he has learnt his lesson! Sorry to bring that up PT, just wanted to show people that even good investors picked RAK as a winner when it had many of the same characteristics as PEB (IP/seemingly good management/great market position/superior products etc). Right now we are factoring in sales that haven't even eventuated yet into a reasonably untested management after giving them more of our money to accelerate said sales. That should be a wee bit scary from anyones viewpoint with skin in the game.

[blobbles]

Bobbles - XRO has a target of 1m customers even though it's current share price assumes 4m.

I am happy to value a company on conservative numbers. As Rachel once said, "it won't happen overnight...."

Hmmm... valuations of an IT SaaS company with a record of successfully getting 100% YoY sales increases vs one that hasn't really even started selling in a big way...

Right now, its completely impossible to value PEB in any fundamental way. If you were to use their last report on sales and do a revenue analysis you might find they are considerably worse off than XRO. Again, we don't even know if they CAN sell as it hasn't been proven yet, let alone growth rates.

I will be a much happier holder when they prove sales are possible at least! Or at least until we have a statement from one of the LUGs reporting back much success and happiness and future partnerships after a user program... I am a bit scared that we haven't heard signs of great success from the NZ ones and commitment to buying lots of CxBladder's in the future... haven't those programs been over for months?

[blobbles]

Hi Blobbles, there are a few references to it.

Not sure I would call that "well received", is that terminology you heard in the AGM or something? That just was a statement saying that they were initiating user programs... why haven't we heard anything back about all these user programs? I can't seem to find an endorsement by any large medical group anywhere... is there one out there? Other than the insurance companies of course...

[Snow Leopard]

It is a shame you have been such a long term critic of PEB Paper Tiger, to hold such negativity for so long is disappointing and must be a burden for you.

Your figures are incorrect or conservatively low or both.

PEB's target of NZ$100M by 2017, probably sooner now with the additional capital and sales force, equates to 140,000 tests per annum not the 100,000 in your analysis.

This target represents only a 7.5% market share to be achieved 4 to 5 years from now.

I suspect your conservatism is also extreme in consideration and comparison to what similar biotech companies achieve in terms of gross margins a few years into commercialisation.

MAC you have to do much better than this! You really do.

Just because you do not like my numbers does not mean I am negative.
You will be glad to know that I am unburdened.
Obviously you have you problems and I have mine (Currently mediating in a territorial dispute between the house geckos over who lives under the drinking water dispenser is my biggest).

I have never been a critic of PEB, I hope that it is very successful.
I have been a critic of some peoples 'valuations' of the company that were based on plucking numbers out of the air and no attempt to think things through, no consideration for the downside risks.

My figures are not incorrect, they are the figures I believe are a realistic representation of what will come to pass. In this sense they are as unlikely as the companies current best guess. Down the track as actual sales eventuate we can all redo the numbers.

However your 'PEB's target of NZ$100M by 2017' is, I believe, incorrect in that the 2013 annual report states '[in excess of] $100 million by the end of our 5th year of trading in the USA' that is 2018.

I have assumed the wonderful gross margin outlined by PEB, and have, I believe, been quite conservative in the amount by which the rest of the companies operating expenses eat into this. On the negative side I have also assumed that they will have to pay tax on their US profits fairly early on.

Anyway I stand by my figures which I think provides the right risk/reward buying price for me and simply believe the market has a higher level of optimism/exuberance/risk tolerance for PEB.

I do not expect anybody else to blindly accept this valuation but I do hope that it encourages others to do their own.

Next time just play the ball and not the tiger.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[MAC]

Not sure I would call that "well received", is that terminology you heard in the AGM or something? That just was a statement saying that they were initiating user programs... why haven't we heard anything back about all these user programs? I can't seem to find an endorsement by any large medical group anywhere... is there one out there? Other than the insurance companies of course...

As I understand the results of the first user programmes are due to be documented in the Journal of Urology in February 2014. The clinical trial results have long since been released and have also been covered by the Journal previously. I would need to find a Urologist to translate them into English for me, but why don't you track down a copy Blobbles and have a jolly good nit pick through it, perhaps that may satisfy your curiosity.

One would expect that the commercial information associated with trials would probably remain closely held with each initiating health organisation and perhaps PEB themselves. Though we know already that a cxbladder work up is 30% more cost effective than present methods. I would though be interested to know if mid central health will confidentially share commercial information with other DHB's.

[blobbles]

Just a note for people that are questioning my seemingly flip flop in tone from posts prior to TBI (The Big Increase, in SP!), I completely admit that I have changed my tone. Why? Because I took off my glasses of looking at this company from a perspective of being an investor into a potentially great product with a huge market in front of it, and put on my glasses of a fundamental investor that analyses a commercial company based on facts, numbers and data. Now I look at PEB in the same way I look at all the other companies I am interested in who have a commercial product.

And at this point, as a fundamental investor, interested in eventual returns on investment, I have more questions than answers...

[blobbles]

As I understand the results of the first user programmes are due to be documented in the Journal of Urology in February 2014. The clinical trial results have long since been released and have also been covered by the Journal previously. I would need to find a Urologist to translate them into English for me, but why don't you track down a copy Blobbles and have a jolly good nit pick through it, perhaps that may satisfy your curiosity.

One would expect that the commercial information associated with trials would probably remain closely held with each initiating health organisation and perhaps PEB themselves. Though we know already that a cxbladder work up is 30% more cost effective than present methods. I would though be interested to know if mid central health will confidentially share commercial information with other DHB's.

Yes, I aren't looking for clinical trial results (although I would love a 1000-5000 patient clinical trial done), as I have already read through these. I am looking for COMMERCIAL notices, commercial announcements and commercial agreements. The Mid Central Health one I know about, yet nobody knows the details. Interestingly we also don't know the details regarding the FedMed insurance company sign up either. These are the commercial agreements I want to know about but can't gain any clarity on...

[Longhaul]

Blobbles, do you hold PEB?

[blobbles]

Blobbles, do you hold PEB?

Yep, over half of my total investments (especially after the price rise). Hence I want clarity :)

[MAC]

By negativity I’m referring to your previous posts over the last six months in regard to risk, or perhaps I'm perceiving negativity in lieu of rather extreme conservatism.

Five years from the recent first commercialisation announcement takes us to HY18, though the PEB goal may well be achieved ahead of that as the $20.5M capital boost does have a purpose.

I think you may in this instance garner greater respect if you made that disclosure Paper Tiger, but I respect that you may genuinely hold a valuation based on the extents of each conservative assumption. Low, perhaps very safe, but not necessarily representative, I just prefer more balanced assessments so there are margins on both sides.

I would agree though that the range of possible valuation scenarios is large, as it is for all ventures at this stage. I’ve a scenario range based on US cxbladder sales only of FY14 $1.45 through $2.30, though the more I study the company and the market, and share information, the more I settle toward the higher end of that spectrum.

Hope your gecko's find a new home.

[blobbles]

By negativity I’m referring to your previous posts over the last six months in regard to risk, or perhaps I'm perceiving negativity in lieu of rather extreme conservatism.

Five years from the recent first commercialisation announcement takes us to HY18, though the PEB goal may well be achieved ahead of that as the $20.5M capital boost does have a purpose.

I think you may in this instance garner greater respect if you made that disclosure Paper Tiger, but I respect that you may genuinely hold a valuation based on the extents of each conservative assumption. Low, perhaps very safe, but not necessarily representative, I just prefer more balanced assessments so there are margins on both sides.

I would agree though that the range of possible valuation scenarios is large, as it is for all ventures at this stage. I’ve a scenario range based on US cxbladder sales only of FY14 $1.45 through $2.30, though the more I study the company and the market, and share information, the more I settle toward the higher end of that spectrum.

Hope your gecko's find a new home.

Care to share your valuation MAC? The problem here is that they have near enough to zero sales. I don't think, with a commercial entity, you can assign any fundamental valuation when there is no revenue information available for their new market.

The sales announcement due to come out this month will be a huge one for the SP, either up or down, of that I am sure :)

[nextbigthing]

The sales announcement due to come out this month will be a huge one for the SP, either up or down, of that I am sure :)

They were only just given approval for sales in July and have just started getting into the marketing properly. So there will be next to no sales in this report. Given this, do you feel Blobbles that Mr Market has factored this in, or that there will be a large drop in price when this is released and it's a shock?

[blobbles]

They were only just given approval for sales in July and have just started getting into the marketing properly. So there will be next to no sales in this report. Given this, do you feel Blobbles that Mr Market has factored this in, or that there will be a large drop in price when this is released and it's a shock?

By my reckoning, 2% of total market penetration (Oceania/Asia/Europe/US) or around 6% of US market penetration only, is built into the SP as of now. I believe that people think this thing will sell itself and it damn well might. But it damn well might not, particularly at this early stage. I suspect though, if people don't see numbers in the low thousands at least for the US, there will be a drop in SP. Anything in the 5-10k range would be absolutely fabulous, and anything above that would suggest it is selling itself and their investment in sales teams may be unnecessary :)

I am betting on 2-5k of sales though which should HOPEFULLY see the SP stay the same and 5k would represent about 0.8% market share in the US (5k total in 4 months averaged, annualised, then over 1.825 million tests).

The following statement is one of completely subjective reasoning: If this thing was going to sell itself (as many posters I believe think is going to happen), I think we should see about 5% market penetration for the last month, which would be around 15k sales so far made to the US. If that happened, expect the SP to be at >$5 pretty quickly, as in my books 5% relates to $6 SP. If we see 200, I think the SP might go down to 80c. The reasoning behind this is I think there are a lot of short termers who are expecting big things to happen quickly and if it doesn't, they will re-evaluate and dump some/most of their shares.

[baller18]

15K doesn't sound quite achievable during a time span of four months, if it does, like you mentioned, it will skyrocket to new heights.
IMO, definitely more than 200...
I am hoping at least 5K sales...
But who knows, 15k could even be achievable...

75,000 new cases each year, 75k X 0.33 = rounded to 25K new cases during the period sales has been happening.

70 - 80% recurrences (500,000 survivors), 350,000 tests.

25K + 350k = 375K max tests possible.
At one percent market penetration we would get 3750 tests...

Real hard to predict the sales report....

However, has the market already priced this in the SP?

[baller18]

Not to mention the total population in the states is 317 million, and PEB has only signed insurance agreement with access to 54 million citizens in the states. Therefore, shrinking the sales size once again.

54/ 317 = 0.17

375K test x 0.17 = 63.75k max tests for CXbladder

This reduces the market by quite a significant amount again..

This would only get us a few hundred tests during this period...

[blobbles]

Oh the other thing is - I don't think the announcements with insurers are actually worth anything.

The reasoning here is that they do not represent sales, the represent the ability to sell. This means it is only an extra step that is necessary for for the American market, in order for people to get access to your product. It is NOT a product endorsement in my eyes and anyone that seems to think it is, I feel is hyping. I mean look at the FedMed papers you have to fill out to become a provider:

http://www.fedmedinc.com/Docs/FedMedProviderRapidEnrollmentvWEB1.pdf

Not exactly amazingly detailed info you are required to provide. Looks more like an almost rubber stamping form so that they know who you are so they can pay you when someone uses your products and claims it on their insurance.

Hence I don't see the reason for the huge price jump regarding these achievements.

[baller18]

One thing wrong with your numbers though - the total US market isn't covered yet :)
Yup read my second post blobbles :)
Sales number are not looking too great huh in the short run

[blobbles]

Yup read my second post blobbles :)

Ha haa, you were too fast, I deleted that post after reading your second one, dang, you caught me! :)

[Snow Leopard]

The report will be to 30-Sep-13 and so will directly only cover revenue for the three months of Jul, Aug & Sep.

Hopefully there will be actual numbers of sales for that period and even for post 30-Sep.

Don't expect much then the result is more likely to be on the upside.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[MAC]

Care to share your valuation MAC? The problem here is that they have near enough to zero sales. I don't think, with a commercial entity, you can assign any fundamental valuation when there is no revenue information available for their new market.

The sales announcement due to come out this month will be a huge one for the SP, either up or down, of that I am sure file:///C:\Users\PC1\AppData\Local\Temp\msohtmlclip1\01\cl ip_image001.gif

Blobbles, valuations are made by assessing prospective forward cashflows on a specific reference basis, historical revenues are not used by analysts in assessing forward valuations. If you examine the sensitivities of the HY14 as I have you may find that it actually has little bearing on the valuation as it’s effectively a pre-commercialisation result.

The PEB commercialisation plan can be found on both the PEB and NZX websites and this is the basis for which the market has to form an expectation in regard to the HY14 announcement, it’s a comprehensive plan and I recommend a read. It seems to me that PEB are entirely on schedule against it.

https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/176737.pdf

The US laboratory was completed on schedule and under budget and began to operate with the first tests being completed in July. PEB have recently advised, on 18th October, that first commercial sales were achieved, noting that this announcement was made after the HY14 reporting period ended on 30th September.

https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/183582.pdf

Thus, PEB have been operating for three months within the US during the HY14 reporting period, it is difficult to know how many tests were performed for user studies and how many were direct sales.

My expectation for the announcement is for around 200 US tests in total, I hope that a good proportion of these were commercial sales.

My HY14 forecast is for total revenues including research grants of between NZ$350k and NZ$550k. Revenues of $550k would be a good result IMO.

I would suggest, given the plethora of information provided by PEB to the market that this is roughly what the market will expect. ie: a result in accordance with the plan PEB openly have disclosed.

I think the market will move more on the tone of the commentary, traction with health organisations, progress on the second and third cxbladder products, timing of the entry into Asia, progress toward a Medicare agreement, etc, etc

[Minerbarejet]

So, why dont we all sit back ,put our feet up, have a couple of snorts and wait until mid December by which time we will have more information and guidelines as to where this thing is going. Beats the crap out of this endless speculation as to what might or might not happen.
Jeez, see you later.

[cammo]

I'm an investor and a chemist (not a pharmacist). This technology is where diagnosis ultimately will go for all diseases. As the knowledge base of specific bio(+)chemical compounds and/or relative levels of compounds given off by carcinomas , faulty prostates, egg bound ovaries , schizophrenia, chronic fatigue etc etc etc grows ...who knows where it will end. Much information is in our excreted waste product.
But pee on a stick (or other stuff...bring on cx colorectal) is where we are going ....cheap fast easy and replicable.
I actually see them expanding tests into maybe cirrhosis and liver issues for a start. Colorectal offers many other options too apart from the direct colon jujenum etc tract. Knowing what to look for is the key.

[zymwh]

I thank you blobbles for your hard work on this forum if I can get my additional 100% rights in full. Thank you in advance

[In4a$]

I'm an investor and a chemist (not a pharmacist). This technology is where diagnosis ultimately will go for all diseases. As the knowledge base of specific bio(+)chemical compounds and/or relative levels of compounds given off by carcinomas , faulty prostates, egg bound ovaries , schizophrenia, chronic fatigue etc etc etc grows ...who knows where it will end. Much information is in our excreted waste product.
But pee on a stick (or other stuff...bring on cx colorectal) is where we are going ....cheap fast easy and replicable.
I actually see them expanding tests into maybe cirrhosis and liver issues for a start. Colorectal offers many other options too apart from the direct colon jujenum etc tract. Knowing what to look for is the key.
Good to hear someone with your experience giving it the thumbs up. Took up my rights and holding to see where this goes next year. Its a feel good stock to me, good to see medical advances like this and feels good to be part of it. Be great if its successful medically and financially.

[couta1]

Can I just saying that working in the medical field myself that once the specialists realise the ease of use combined with accuracy his thing will rocket IMHO were all looking for the easiest most convenient solution in any medical test. Hold PEB

[Balance]

Oh the other thing is - I don't think the announcements with insurers are actually worth anything.

The reasoning here is that they do not represent sales, the represent the ability to sell. This means it is only an extra step that is necessary for for the American market, in order for people to get access to your product. It is NOT a product endorsement in my eyes and anyone that seems to think it is, I feel is hyping. I mean look at the FedMed papers you have to fill out to become a provider:

http://www.fedmedinc.com/Docs/FedMedProviderRapidEnrollmentvWEB1.pdf

Not exactly amazingly detailed info you are required to provide. Looks more like an almost rubber stamping form so that they know who you are so they can pay you when someone uses your products and claims it on their insurance.

Hence I don't see the reason for the huge price jump regarding these achievements.

Fair point, blobbles but me thinkth you are stretching it a bit to say that it is a rubber stamping exercise.

Everything that PEB has done in the States has been a step by step exercise, and to the extent that they show they are achieving the benchmarks set, the market will continue to recognize the future sales potential.

The sp reaction to the FedMed announcement was good but not explosive.

The sp reaction to the Choice Provider announcement was explosive if you look at the charts.

It tells me that the second announcement made the 'informed' market really take notice and there is more behind the scenes to make the sp jump explosively like that on huge volumes.

The institutional market is not made up of a bunch of bunnies who simply throw money at stocks - they monitor those which make their watch list, look for trigger points and then, they act when the trigger points are activated. They have investment committees they have to justify their investment decisions to.

Sp would have kept going but for the rights issue and capital raising.

To support your contention however, the fact that Masfen, Harbour and ACC sold shares post the announcements does point towards caution on their part. And Masfen is an insider.

[skid]

So, why dont we all sit back ,put our feet up, have a couple of snorts and wait until mid December by which time we will have more information and guidelines as to where this thing is going. Beats the crap out of this endless speculation as to what might or might not happen.
Jeez, see you later.

Depends on what you are ''snorting'':p

[Xerof]

5 more days of rights trading.

Those who have been around know that share prices generally weaken in the middle of rights trading as holders receive their notice of entitlements and some sell, then firm up when the longer term holders take the opportunity to build up their stakes.

So I am expecting 2 more days of weakness, then strength next week before rights trading stop on Wednesday.

its holding pretty well isnt it....very little selling pressure in rights, which to me means there will be an extremely high uptake. Perhaps the couple of days of weakness you were looking for were the two before you posted Bal? Still time for it to happen, but the Co must be pleased with the light volumes of rights trading so far

[Balance]

its holding pretty well isnt it....very little selling pressure in rights, which to me means there will be an extremely high uptake. Perhaps the couple of days of weakness you were looking for were the two before you posted Bal? Still time for it to happen, but the Co must be pleased with the light volumes of rights trading so far

Not me.

Be nice to see some serious selling of rights for a few institutions to get set to bed in the stock for the future.

[blobbles]

Fair point, blobbles but me thinkth you are stretching it a bit to say that it is a rubber stamping exercise.

Everything that PEB has done in the States has been a step by step exercise, and to the extent that they show they are achieving the benchmarks set, the market will continue to recognize the future sales potential.

The sp reaction to the FedMed announcement was good but not explosive.

The sp reaction to the Choice Provider announcement was explosive if you look at the charts.

It tells me that the second announcement made the 'informed' market really take notice and there is more behind the scenes to make the sp jump explosively like that on huge volumes.

The institutional market is not made up of a bunch of bunnies who simply throw money at stocks - they monitor those which make their watch list, look for trigger points and then, they act when the trigger points are activated. They have investment committees they have to justify their investment decisions to.

Sp would have kept going but for the rights issue and capital raising.

To support your contention however, the fact that Masfen, Harbour and ACC sold shares post the announcements does point towards caution on their part. And Masfen is an insider.

Yep you are right looking back, it was the America Choice Provider announcement that really set the sp on fire.

So can anyone tell me what the process is you have to go through in order to become a provider for America Choice Provider? A few pages ago someone insinuated that your product had to go through a panel of doctors who would review it and you would only get approved if they thought your product at least had a good chance of selling. I thought this came from someone that knew but I aren't so sure now...

Their site is just as brief as FedMed's when it comes to the nomination... http://www.acpnusa.com/nominate.aspx

But that doesn't look like the whole process (hopefully)...

And I don't trust that analysts always do the right thing, for me the people who had the best info about what effect the provider announcements should have were PEB. And they came out with a rights issue priced at 55c a few days after...

[geo]

The Difference in Bladder CANCER Detection.

Anyone see the great adv in the + PLUS magazine that came with the NZ Herald on Thusday, full colour half page. Would really get your attention if you a suffer or investor.

Nice to see our company working hard out there.

[Harvey Specter]

The Difference in Bladder CANCER Detection.

Anyone see the great adv in the + PLUS magazine that came with the NZ Herald on Thusday, full colour half page. Would really get your attention if you a suffer or investor.

Nice to see our company working hard out there.While not the target demographic for that publication, I did have a sneaky look to see if they had an ad in there. Looked good.

[Whipmoney]

Yep you are right looking back, it was the America Choice Provider announcement that really set the sp on fire.

And I don't trust that analysts always do the right thing, for me the people who had the best info about what effect the provider announcements should have were PEB. And they came out with a rights issue priced at 55c a few days after...

I believe the ACN announcement was less significant than the original Fedmed announcement however what it did indicate (and what the market seems to have priced in) is that they are achieving momentum with the insurance companies and therefore further announcements are likely.

The other thing to consider is that the first announcement definitely put the stock back on people's radar and then the second cemented this. From my personal experience, people who had no idea about the stock started talking about it and investing.

Based on the above, and the lack of tangible sales (to date) I believe this thing is over-valued by 20cents or so. When the hot-money gets bored I can see the price re-tracing unless some further positive announcements come out before xmas.

[Harvey Specter]

I believe the ACN announcement was less significant than the original Fedmed announcement however what it did indicate (and what the market seems to have priced in) is that they are achieving momentum with the insurance companies and therefore further announcements are likely.I think thats right. In theory the first was more significant but the second proved it wasn't a one off, and that they are working multiple streams at once, esp with the comments of hoping to sign the two biggies within the year..

[Balance]

I think thats right. In theory the first was more significant but the second proved it wasn't a one off, and that they are working multiple streams at once, esp with the comments of hoping to sign the two biggies within the year..


Therein lies the rub - those who sold out from 60c down to 50c just before the two announcements missed out big time. Worse for tghose who sold out after the Fedmed announcement as the sp doubled on the second announcement.

I personally think next announcement post the rights issue (before year end) will be a takeover offer - you read it here first.

:D

[blobbles]

Which is all fine and good, but my question is, what is the process they go through to get a contract with them, and what is it truly worth? To me it just sounds like it is a step that needs to be done in the American system which just involves signing a few bits of paper and nobody seems to know any more than that... if it is as simple as that, why should that be a reason to double the SP?

[MAC]

You would probably need to be on the inside to get specific details Blobbles.

I haven’t needed medical advice for many years I’m happy to say, however at the time the specialist outlined several treatment options for me but was clear that he was compelled to offer the treatment, and forgive me as I forget his exact words, that was considered appropriate by the insurer.

One would expect that the highly qualified analysts at major insurers like FedMed and ACPN would have to undertake an extraordinary review process to evaluate a new technology like cxbladder and of course be confident that it represents a valid economic solution.

I can equally imagine that PEB have a well considered and tailored proposition, and a specific presentation for prospective insurers demonstrating the 30% reduction in work up costs.

[blobbles]

You would probably need to be on the inside to get specific details Blobbles.

I haven’t needed medical advice for many years I’m happy to say, however at the time the specialist outlined several treatment options for me but was clear that he was compelled to offer the treatment, and forgive me as I forget his exact words, that was considered appropriate by the insurer.

One would expect that the highly qualified analysts at major insurers like FedMed and ACPN would have to undertake an extraordinary review process to evaluate a new technology like cxbladder and of course be confident that it represents a valid economic solution.

I can equally imagine that PEB have a well considered and tailored proposition, and a specific presentation for prospective insurers demonstrating the 30% reduction in work up costs.

So you can confirm that FedMed and ACPN have "highly qualified analysts" that undertake an "extraordinary review process"? Where do you get that information from?

[MAC]

So you can confirm that FedMed and ACPN have "highly qualified analysts" that undertake an "extraordinary review process"? Where do you get that information from?

Why would they not have like any other medical insurer. Why don't you give them a call and ask your question, let us know how you get on, FedMed: Phone: (301) 354-2900

http://www.fedmedinc.com/ContactUs.aspx

[blobbles]

Why would they not have like any other medical insurer. Why don't you give them a call and ask your question, let us know how you get on, FedMed: Phone: (301) 354-2900

http://www.fedmedinc.com/ContactUs.aspx

So... why are you making statements that you don't know are true or not?

[Balance]

So... why are you making statements that you don't know are true or not?

Too aggressive, boobles!

MAC is making a supposition based upon his experience :

"One would expect that the highly qualified analysts at major insurers like FedMed and ACPN would have to undertake an extraordinary review process to evaluate a new technology like cxbladder and of course be confident that it represents a valid economic solution.

I can equally imagine that PEB have a well considered and tailored proposition, and a specific presentation for prospective insurers demonstrating the 30% reduction in work up costs."

[TimmyTP]

So... why are you making statements that you don't know are true or not?
Blobbles, as I recall, it is you who is raising the questions. I think that is fine and, as far as I can tell, MAC and others have been trying to offer their knowledge to assist you with that.

If you are not satisfied with that assistance and you feel you need these answers to help with your investment decisions, wouldn't it be reasonable to expect you to be the one who goes elsewhere for facts that you feel you can trust?

[Balance]

5 more days of rights trading.

Those who have been around know that share prices generally weaken in the middle of rights trading as holders receive their notice of entitlements and some sell, then firm up when the longer term holders take the opportunity to build up their stakes.

So I am expecting 2 more days of weakness, then strength next week before rights trading stop on Wednesday.

Looks like sp may weaken at last.

Sp at $1.20 at day's close?

[blobbles]

Blobbles, as I recall, it is you who is raising the questions. I think that is fine and, as far as I can tell, MAC and others have been trying to offer their knowledge to assist you with that.

If you are not satisfied with that assistance and you feel you need these answers to help with your investment decisions, wouldn't it be reasonable to expect you to be the one who goes elsewhere for facts that you feel you can trust?

So people are allowed to potentially make stuff up (which some would consider ramping) without being questioned? I aren't saying that MAC IS making stuff up, but I am asking for him to qualify what he has just stated with evidence, whether it is from personal knowledge or something more concrete.

This entire forum is a place where we can discuss what we know openly. So now we aren't allowed to question each other? Sorry, I don't mean to sound aggressive, I am just prodding to get MAC to respond with how he knows these things to be true. Peace out all! :) :) :)

Currently it is 9:30pm in the states, so I can't call FedMed to ask what the process is...

[Xerof]

Looks like sp may weaken at last.

Sp at $1.20 at day's close?

lol, did you arrange for Dawson to sell some rights to get the ball rolling?

I will be looking to buy some more on further weakness

[TimmyTP]

So people are allowed to potentially make stuff up (which some would consider ramping) without being questioned? I aren't saying that MAC IS making stuff up, but I am asking for him to qualify what he has just stated with evidence, whether it is from personal knowledge or something more concrete.

This entire forum is a place where we can discuss what we know openly. So now we aren't allowed to question each other? Sorry, I don't mean to sound aggressive, I am just prodding to get MAC to respond with how he knows these things to be true. Peace out all! :) :) :)

Currently it is 9:30pm in the states, so I can't call FedMed to ask what the process is...
Re-read what I wrote, especially:
"it's fine to raise questions"

However I read MAC's statement, I cannot see it as a deliberate attempt to mislead - to my mind, he states a reasonable assumption about the due diligence of FedMed.
Fair enough that you doubted his statement, but your response was aggressive enough for two of us call you out on it.

Never mind, I'm sure there will be a lot of interest in your findings from FedMed. If it turns out they get the janitor to check these out, you can send me 6 tongue-pokey-out emoticons.

[Dentie]

Looks like sp may weaken at last.

Sp at $1.20 at day's close?

Yes Balance - thank goodness for that!

As we have been constantly told over the past couple of weeks, the SP has been much too high. As it drops further, it should hopefully make some holders a lot happier and they can then finally relax a bit more.

[blobbles]

Re-read what I wrote, especially:
"it's fine to raise questions"

However I read MAC's statement, I cannot see it as a deliberate attempt to mislead - to my mind, he states a reasonable assumption about the due diligence of FedMed.
Fair enough that you doubted his statement, but your response was aggressive enough for two of us call you out on it.

Never mind, I'm sure there will be a lot of interest in your findings from FedMed. If it turns out they get the janitor to check these out, you can send me 6 tongue-pokey-out emoticons.

Fair call, I accept the yellow card with humility and defeat and now will sit on the sidelines for a bit. :)

*grumbles at the fair referee's, casting them looks of denial and regret, but accepts his fate whilst walking off*

[Balance]

Fair call, I accept the yellow card with humility and defeat and now will sit on the sidelines for a bit. :)

*grumbles at the fair referee's, casting them looks of denial and regret, but accepts his fate whilst walking off*

All good, boobles.

This forum would be less interesting if we all don't chip in our 10c worth now and then.

:)

[skid]

What!!!! Turned on my computer to find PEB on page 2!!! That will not do --- There back on page 1--- bit of a shock there for a moment:p

[Xerof]

Shhh, I was enjoying the peace :D:D

[winner69]

Shhh, I was enjoying the peace :D:D

Think the loyalists took offence at the doubters the other day ....think a few pissed them off

[garfy]

Shhh, I was enjoying the peace :D:D

Heartily endorsed!

[Intel]

You would probably need to be on the inside to get specific details Blobbles.

I haven’t needed medical advice for many years I’m happy to say, however at the time the specialist outlined several treatment options for me but was clear that he was compelled to offer the treatment, and forgive me as I forget his exact words, that was considered appropriate by the insurer.

One would expect that the highly qualified analysts at major insurers like FedMed and ACPN would have to undertake an extraordinary review process to evaluate a new technology like cxbladder and of course be confident that it represents a valid economic solution.

I can equally imagine that PEB have a well considered and tailored proposition, and a specific presentation for prospective insurers demonstrating the 30% reduction in work up costs.


FedMed and ACPN are NOT insurance companies! Do some research before filling the minds of others with incorrect information.

[Dentie]

FedMed and ACPN are NOT insurance companies! Do some research before filling the minds of others with incorrect information.

Come on Intel, an unnecessarily aggressive berate here I reckon. Getting a bit precious mate.

I don't think the message is changed just because they may not be insurers ...I'm sure Fedmed etc will have their analysts and I'm equally sure they would do their research evaluations as MAC suggests.

I think MAC's message was "any potential recipients/users/providers would be making sure any new science stacks up & CX Bladder appears to stack up"

Chill

[Alz99]

There are some who do not understand the rights issue or its implications. I have been thereseveral times in the past and its quite simple. You are being offered fully paid up shares in the company at 55cents per share and in this circumstance, you should jump at the chance. Forget about the arithmetic - its meaningless in the current situation. The head price might drop a cent or two but it certainly won't depreciate the share in any significant way. The time to be wary of rights issues is when a company is in trouble and trying to buy its way out. Strathmore did this years ago with a rights issue @05cps and five rights for every share held. I must have been the only mug in NZ who bought them on the grounds that if the shares remained at 8cps or more I would mak a profit. I got out of the lot at over 20cps and never turned my head once to look back. This particular one is being driven by a mixture of emotion and greed but I would expect it to settle at around 150cps when the dust settles.

just a quick question, i revieved my rights offer letter the other day, now the oversubscription amount..... can i only apply for the same or less amount that i am entitled to or can i get more??

bit new to rights offers.. cheers

[Harvey Specter]

i revieved my rights offer letter the other day, Did you consider reading it? ;)
now the oversubscription amount..... can i only apply for the same or less amount that i am entitled to or can i get more??You can apply for upto 100% of your entitlement, no more. So if you are entitled to 50, you can apply for oversubscription of between 0 and 50.

[TimmyTP]

just a quick question, i revieved my rights offer letter the other day, now the oversubscription amount..... can i only apply for the same or less amount that i am entitled to or can i get more??

bit new to rights offers.. cheers
There is a box about half way down the form, labelled "Your maximum entitlement to subscribe for Additional New Shares is".

That is the maximum for which you may apply.

If you want more rights, you can still buy them on the NZX - if you time it right, you might get them at a 1c discount to the share price at that time.

[zs_cecil]

If we opt for over subscription, do we have to pay for the amount of over subscription in advance? Does anyone know the answer?

[BigBob]

If we opt for over subscription, do we have to pay for the amount of over subscription in advance? Does anyone know the answer?

Yes you do....

[Nigel]

If we opt for over subscription, do we have to pay for the amount of over subscription in advance? Does anyone know the answer?

I don't have the papers in front of me, but from memory (and previous experience) you pay in advance and they refund any money to you within 10 days (or similar) if they can't allocate your request. It's all in the pack if you read through it - there's info there about refund process etc.

[AndyLP]

Is anyone still waiting on their rights offer hard copy in the mail? Still haven't got mine, and I'm definitely eligible.

edit - delivered to my desk 2 mins later. brilliant

[chad321]

Apologies for the daft question. Do I simply need to fill out the front side of the entitlement and acceptance form, place it in the envelope going to Link Market Services in Ashburton and post? (As well as paying the amount of course). Do I need to worry about the broker's stamp area in the top right corner?

[bwucey]

Yep, it says so in the accompanying handbook - you'll be reimbursed if you don't acquire the xtra shares.

[In4a$]

Is anyone still waiting on their rights offer hard copy in the mail? Still haven't got mine, and I'm definitely eligible.

edit - delivered to my desk 2 mins later. brilliant
Got mine in the mail last Thursday, " South Auckland " posted the cheque on Friday.

[QOH]

Apologies for the daft question. Do I simply need to fill out the front side of the entitlement and acceptance form, place it in the envelope going to Link Market Services in Ashburton and post? (As well as paying the amount of course). Do I need to worry about the broker's stamp area in the top right corner?
no don't worry about brokers stamp. I doubt you are depriving them of any commission in this case.

[Harvey Specter]

edit - delivered to my desk 2 mins later. brilliantNO wonder NZPost is losing money. What will you do when they reduce to a 3 day service.

[Alz99]

Did you consider reading it? ;)You can apply for upto 100% of your entitlement, no more. So if you are entitled to 50, you can apply for oversubscription of between 0 and 50.


Thanks yes i did read it, it did say from a oversubscription amount of 37000000 so was wondering if i could apply for more, sometimes the more i read th emore confused i get lol

cheers
i appreciate the help

[pierre]

Just remember that the total funds being raised is capped at $20.5 million so the chances of having an oversubscription request filled are pretty minimal. I think it's reasonable to assume that most rights holders will either take them up or sell on-market so there are unlikely to be many floating around to be allocated to oversubscription bidders.

It's highly likely your money will be tied up for about 10-14 days for little benefit.

[Harvey Specter]

It's highly likely your money will be tied up for about 10-14 days for little benefit.Agreeeeeee

[goldfish]

Yes i will apply for full amount but not expecting to get many if any.
Will be interesting to see.

[TimmyTP]

Yes i will apply for full amount but not expecting to get many if any.
How many rights issues do you know roll like this?



(apologies)

[Harvey Specter]

How many rights issues do you know roll like this?Not many, if any

Disc: Quoting Scribe, so dont take as advice.

[Dentie]

The new Marketing Material on the Cxbladder website provides a great summary, is well presented and tells the whole story.

Hyperlink: Cxbladder Marketing Material Brochure (http://www.cxbladder.com/assets/assets/Cxb-Brochure-00-MKT-120-NZ-REVA.pdf)

Thanks Hancocks - as always.

I agree, a very good brochure that sets it out for all sides to understand.

Almost makes it a pleasure ....

[skid]

Dang dentie! maybe Ill go out and get a test just for fun:p

[Dentie]

Another one for the wall... well, for a couple of years anyway.

https://www.google.com/url?q=http://www.pacificedgedx.com/assets/assets/FL-license-2.pdf&ct=ga&cd=MTc3MzU2NjQyNjg4ODI3MjU5NTQ&cad=CAEYAA&usg=AFQjCNFVmifbVVfZ5OjnxoG4OI7sNHwz-Q

[Minerbarejet]

State of Florida Dentie, State of Florida - Part of / Start of CLIA Registration Application in this State?
Florida is possibly the largest concentration of elderly and well to do folk in the US who may require cx bladder at some stage.

[Balance]

Last day of rights trading.

[Harvey Specter]

When do we have to pay the money by to take up the rights. I have the 27th in my head but for some reason ASB has already taken mine out, even though they said they wouldn't do till 22nd.

Edit: do other people have issues with their brokerage firm being a bit to time generous with their clients money?

[Copper]

Last day of rights trading.

Is it not tomorrow Balance. Notice says trading ceases Thursday .Would have assumed at 5 pm that day.No problem ,have taken up myself .May affect someone....

[Toasty]

When do we have to pay the money by to take up the rights. I have the 27th in my head but for some reason ASB has already taken mine out, even though they said they wouldn't do till 22nd.

Edit: do other people have issues with their brokerage firm being a bit to time generous with their clients money?

I think your application has to be received by the 27th. I can't actually confirm because I just sealed mine and its sitting in the out mail box. I had so much trouble filling out the form. Was it overly complicated or do I just need to read the instructions?

[clip]

I must have got a different form, just had to write in how many I wanted, multiply that by .55 and put that figure in the second box?

[Harvey Specter]

I must have got a different form, just had to write in how many I wanted, multiply that by .55 and put that figure in the second box?I think it was that easy - I just told ASB what I wanted since I use their nominee account (no doubt they will be earning the interest on the funds they took out of my account till they hand it over on the 27th)

[baller18]

Isn't it with link market services? I just transferred the money to Link market services account...

[geo]

Just need to read the instructions.

[baller18]

Just need to read the instructions.

Yeh, I Just thought everyone's form was the same, because my one was either pay by cheque or direct credit into Links account (which I did)..
Was curious as to how come everyone had different forms, hence the different instructions.

[clip]

Yep same form. I imagine you still actually need to mail them the form as proof that you want to accept your allocation. Pretty sure it says you have to mail them, and either include a cheque with the allocation form or make bank transfer (and mail them just the form)

[baller18]

yup correct, definitely got to mail in the form...

[Toasty]

Must be just me then and my arch nemesis....Forms!

[Dentie]

This looks encouraging ....boosting up the accounts department!!! Now, why would they be doing this I wonder .......?

http://www.linkedin.com/job/c-pacific-edge-ltd-jobs

[psychic]

Nice find Dentie. Thanks

[MAC]

This looks encouraging ....boosting up the accounts department!!! Now, why would they be doing this I wonder .......?

http://www.linkedin.com/job/c-pacific-edge-ltd-jobs

Looks like sales accounts roles, first of the additional 15 under recruitment, good to see PEB are not waiting for the capital raising to complete.

[geo]

This looks encouraging ....boosting up the accounts department!!! Now, why would they be doing this I wonder .......?

http://www.linkedin.com/job/c-pacific-edge-ltd-jobs

Great work Dentie, the sales must be starting to build up if they need more accounting staff already.

[psychic]

The three positions are more marketing focused no?

[Nigel]

The three positions are more marketing focused no?

Yeah, these are sales/relationship roles. The two pure sales roles are in Boston and Chicago - have these been mentioned earlier as priority target areas?

[barney]

http://www.harbourasset.co.nz/wp-content/uploads/2013/11/Harbour-October-2013-Equity-Commentary-website.pdf

[baller18]

http://www.harbourasset.co.nz/wp-content/uploads/2013/11/Harbour-October-2013-Equity-Commentary-website.pdf
Wondering how much the dividends would be by 2020 as well? Let alone the shareprice :D

They needed to establish their “clean” and
certified facility in the US for testing, they needed peer-reviewed medical journals to
publish the results of their CXBladder cancer test and, most importantly, they needed to
begin commercialisation in the US. Their certified facility has been up and running for six
months and in September 2012 the Journal of Urology published results from a clinical
trial of 485 patients which showed compelling performance relative to normal cytology3
.
Commercialisation is the next key element is taking shape, with the recent announcement
of several US medical insurers taking on the test for reimbursement. While still early
stages, the company seems closer to generating revenue and establishing a significant
position in the global market for bladder cancer detection.

A lot of the risks which has been taken off the table as MAC mentioned before, which has been cited again by Harbour.

Many thanks MAC.

May it turnout to be a 100 bagger for Hankcocks, MAC and sparky! As it is near a ten bagger already :P

[Snow Leopard]

Wondering how much the dividends would be by 2020 as well? Let alone the shareprice :D

$0.07, partial imputed and the share price will be $1.45*

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger


*Based on existing model (find last post that upset everybody) with the following changes:
Upgraded revenue for 2015-2017 as per Harbour guesses. Retained 2018+ Tiger guesses as higher;
Reduced expenses by $45M over the 2014 to 2023 period.
BYOM**


**BYOM = Build Your Own Model

[winner69]

$0.07, partial imputed and the share price will be $1.45*

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger


*Based on existing model (find last post that upset everybody) with the following changes:
Upgraded revenue for 2015-2017 as per Harbour guesses. Retained 2018+ Tiger guesses as higher;
Reduced expenses by $45M over the 2014 to 2023 period.
BYOM**


**BYOM = Build Your Own Model

Oh dear PT you are so pessimistic, you just don't get it

Of course this after the 5 for 1 split eh and no more cap raisings

I love your advise in BYOM. One thing that model will show is that revenues of 160m in 2020 can only produce so much profit eh

[winner69]

Pretty safe making this prediction PT .......all going to plan PEB won't exist as we know it eh

By the way if by some small chance PEB is still listed I think your 145 might be about right

[winner69]

Hi Winner, you posts, as valuable as they are, seem to lack a little validation and substance.

Perhaps if you follow the link barney posted to the Asset Management Investment ‘chronometer’ some information may be of value in your future analysis and your general reading pleasure.

If I was a cynical person, I could suggest your posts were deliberately cantankerous, because that is where you get your jollies from; by disturbing the roosting chickens and enjoy watching them fluttering around in a wild panic.

But I won’t suggest anything of the sort because I really enjoy reading your posts.

I had read that Harbour Investment update. It was actually quite a good read.

Besides reading again how their 19 cent purchase was at an 'option value' to capture the upsides if things went right what I took out was their sales projections. Just like PT has done.

So in 2020 revenues of ~50 cents a share leading to how much NPAT is the question. PT sort of suggests NPAT of say 15 cents with a 50% divie payout. If that is the case his 145 seems pretty fair for what would have become a far more mature business.

That I consider is an opinion that has some 'validation and substance' as you put it. No offence taken though.

I still believe that PEB will be bought out before 2020, hopefully sooner. I sent my 15k pittance of the other day for the rights - not as much as you need to send Hancocks but enough play money in the game to take an interest. That's why I don't really want to way until 2020 for a 7 cent divie, rather take the 2 to 3 bucks somebody might offer before then. That's my investment hypothesis anyway.

I enjoy your posts too Hancocks though I will admit I don't take in all the medical detail. As I said earlier wouldn't want you to be the doctor though if I had blood in my urine.

Cheers

[Casino]

What did they base the sales projections on? Here's how it was shaping up for CertNDx:

Revenues from CertNDx were expected to be $14.5 million in 2013, up from $4.2 million in 2012, and $1 million in 2011.
http://www.linkedin.com/pub/chris-walls/4/71a/500

[gv1]

Thanks Hancocks, You have answered my question.

[Harvey Specter]

So in 2020 revenues of ~50 cents a share leading to how much NPAT is the question. PT sort of suggests NPAT of say 15 cents with a 50% divie payout. If that is the case his 145 seems pretty fair for what would have become a far more mature business.A PE of 10 when revenue growth is 15% seems a bit light. A PE of 20 would be justified. That would put it at $3. So maybe not the 10 bagger people are expecting from the current price but still a decent return.

Also add to that a 'free option', using Harbour's term, built into the price for their other products still in the pipeline. I assume their market isn't as big (?) but they may add another 50-100c to the price.

[Casino]

There are some good figures in that post. Predictive Biosciences bladder test CertNDx was an early product of very limited value; they did however, make some good market traction. Predictive Biosciences pulled the test in preference to undertaking a clinical trial CMS’s (Medicare & Medicaid) requested, hence the decision to not cover it.

See the attached results sheet for a typical CerNDx test, there is no comparison to the functionality and accuracy of Cxbladder.

If you read the summary in the document carefully, you will see it's quite lacking.

I think there is no comparison between the two products and some of the claims of Predictive Biosciences in terms of specificity and sensitivity look suspicious.

http://www.predictivebiosci.com/for-healthcare-professionals/clinical_validation.cfm

Cxbladder found true positives that were initially missed by cystoscopy and at the follow-up found to be invasive. I think this makes a strong case for clinical utility. Let's hope that CMS agrees. Any thoughts on false positives compared to cytology?

[MAC]

This revenue projection by Harbour appears the same as most of us have been using for potential US cxbladder sales.

In addition over the next couple of years we should also see a reasonable overlay of revenue streams for cxbladder from Europe and Asia which at this time are more difficult to estimate, it would be nice if PEB also offered guidance for these markets too. Also further out potentially new product stream revenues also.

It terms of forward capital requirements, PEB have a fully fitted lab already for the local market, the completed US lab is good for 4,000 tests per week or the equivalent of US$115M in revenues pa. The European market will be serviced under a licence agreement with Oryzon.

Forward free cash flows look attractive as very little capital outlay is required for cxbladder for the next four to five years. We will have some degree of confirmation of gross margins at FY14 for which PEB ultimately estimate to be as high as 81% (ref 2011 capital raising presentation).

I suspect many may be conservatively underestimating the potential somewhat but it is not unfair to be a little cautious, the margins should be clearer at FY14, in the meantime I'm a happy holder expecting further upside whilst we wait.

[steve06]

False positives would probably be unavoidable, as some of the gene biomarkers used in cx diagnostics test may be expressed by other normal cells within the urinary tract. But I think they refined it down to five of the best biomarkers indicative of cancer, and then using statistical and clinical data to determine the likelihood on those false positives being actually false or not. The willingness of clinicians, dhb and healthcare providers willing to signup cx bladder is certainly a postitive :)

[Casino]

False positives would probably be unavoidable, as some of the gene biomarkers used in cx diagnostics test may be expressed by other normal cells within the urinary tract. But I think they refined it down to five of the best biomarkers indicative of cancer, and then using statistical and clinical data to determine the likelihood on those false positives being actually false or not. The willingness of clinicians, dhb and healthcare providers willing to signup cx bladder is certainly a postitive :)

I don't know what to make of slightly more false positives. Will it be raised as an issue in regards to cost-efficiency or will it therefore appeal to urologists?

[Snow Leopard]

False positives would probably be unavoidable, as some of the gene biomarkers used in cx diagnostics test may be expressed by other normal cells within the urinary tract. But I think they refined it down to five of the best biomarkers indicative of cancer, and then using statistical and clinical data to determine the likelihood on those false positives being actually false or not. The willingness of clinicians, dhb and healthcare providers willing to signup cx bladder is certainly a postitive :)

If my understanding of the clinical trial results is correct and the selectivity and sensitivity are 85% and 83% then a positive (cancer indicating) test is correct 47% of the time with 53% being false positives. So you definitely need confirmation (by cystoscopy?)

The flip side is that a negative result is correct 97% of the time, so I guess I would still need re-assurance.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[steve06]

Its all about selecting the right biomarkers indicative of cancer. By selecting the biomarkers that are highly expressed in cancer cells would be indicative of the presence of cancer. And because different tumours expressses different genes or the same genes at different levels thats where Cxbladder Triage and Predict will come in

[Snow Leopard]

A PE of 10 when revenue growth is 15% seems a bit light. A PE of 20 would be justified. That would put it at $3. So maybe not the 10 bagger people are expecting from the current price but still a decent return.

Also add to that a 'free option', using Harbour's term, built into the price for their other products still in the pipeline. I assume their market isn't as big (?) but they may add another 50-100c to the price.

P/E for me is a by-product of expected future growth and by 2020 I expect that CxBladder to have reached it's peak in terms of market penetration and so forward growth is minor.

Hopefully by then they have another product or two which is proving commercially viable and you can add that in and put your P/E back up.

But PEB currently has a wide variety of possible outcomes and we need to balance risk vs reward. I probably see to much risk and too many people here see too little risk.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[steve06]

This is where things get complicated and has to be worked out through years of research and analysing statistical and clinical data, as some genes can be expressed even by normal cells, or expressed at different levels in different individuals and this can also be dependent on lifecycle and physiological makup, etc. Thats why it has taken more than a decade to roll out their product. But Im sure they done all the hard yards, selecting the best biomarkers, etc...hence the current commercialisation and acceptance of their product :)

[MAC]

It is certainly ambitious, a $100M goal in five years with up to 81% gross margins, and PEB really do have to be so when operating within a ‘go big or go home’ sector. Earlier in the year I came across this article which summed up the proposition for me quite well;

“In the diagnostics industry there is a threshold of around $100 million ($100M) in annual revenue. At that critical mass a company can generate more efficiencies in the lab because it is running more tests. Also, from a valuation perspective, companies that have $100M or more in revenue are more attractive to larger players as potential acquisition candidates. They do enough business to impact the profit and loss statement of the larger company.”

http://www.thelifesciencesreport.com/pub/na/testing-testing-analyst-kevin-degeeter-on-five-good-bets-in-cancer-diagnostics

Whether PEB get there or not, as a matter of perception, may simply come down to how one views the competitiveness of the product and the rate of acceptance in a market of conservative health professionals.

The US price point of $550 offering a 30% reduction in work up costs for insurers is a scene setter and IMHO we should see further large insurers take this up this offer over the next year.

DD was quoted recently in the media as saying the ‘trajectory’ toward the goal is unknown and this is where I think many posters also have differing views at this time, as the rate of take up by urologists is still yet to be determined.

For this reason PEB, IMO still does remain a speculative stock at this time with enormous potential and may remain thus, perhaps decreasingly so, for another year. But that’s no reason not to hold or not to buy that potential within a diversified portfolio.

DISC: Holding, taken up the entitlements and have applied for an oversubscription.

[Casino]

If my understanding of the clinical trial results is correct and the selectivity and sensitivity are 85% and 83% then a positive (cancer indicating) test is correct 47% of the time with 53% being false positives. So you definitely need confirmation (by cystoscopy?)

The flip side is that a negative result is correct 97% of the time, so I guess I would still need re-assurance.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

97% confidence in negatives is a really good value and makes the test very useful. Cxbladder was developed based on the data of the clinical study where 85% specificity was prespecified. Why was this value chosen? How much sensitivity would you loose with specificity similar to cytology?

[baller18]

It is certainly ambitious, a $100M goal in five years with up to 81% gross margins, and PEB really do have to be so when operating within a ‘go big or go home’ sector. Earlier in the year I came across this article which summed up the proposition for me quite well;

“In the diagnostics industry there is a threshold of around $100 million ($100M) in annual revenue. At that critical mass a company can generate more efficiencies in the lab because it is running more tests. Also, from a valuation perspective, companies that have $100M or more in revenue are more attractive to larger players as potential acquisition candidates. They do enough business to impact the profit and loss statement of the larger company.”

http://www.thelifesciencesreport.com/pub/na/testing-testing-analyst-kevin-degeeter-on-five-good-bets-in-cancer-diagnostics

Whether PEB get there or not, as a matter of perception, may simply come down to how one views the competitiveness of the product and the rate of acceptance in a market of conservative health professionals.

The US price point of $550 offering a 30% reduction in work up costs for insurers is a scene setter and IMHO we should see further large insurers take this up this offer over the next year.

DD was quoted recently in the media as saying the ‘trajectory’ toward the goal is unknown and this is where I think many posters also have differing views at this time, as the rate of take up by urologists is still yet to be determined.

For this reason PEB, IMO still does remain a speculative stock at this time with enormous potential and may remain thus, perhaps decreasingly so, for another year. But that’s no reason not to hold or not to buy that potential within a diversified portfolio.

DISC: Holding, taken up the entitlements and have applied for an oversubscription.

Mac, what is your valuation for PEB when it reaches 100million dollars revenue.
If 81% gross margin, roughly 28 EPS, if P/E at 10 would give us $2.80, P/E at 15 would give us $4.2.
Are my calculations overly optimistic?
Or what would you use for NPAT?
Thanks

[winner69]

Mac, what is your valuation for PEB when it reaches 100million dollars revenue.
If 81% gross margin, roughly 28 EPS, if P/E at 10 would give us $2.80, P/E at 15 would give us $4.2.
Are my calculations overly optimistic?

I think when MAC talks margins he is talking Gross Margin

If that is the case you will need to take expenses off .... and allow for some tax as well

Maybe he does think 81% after expenses ... in that case your suns are right baller (except for tax) .... but even 10 times NPBT isn't a bad multiple

[baller18]

I think when MAC talks margins he is talking Gross Margin

If that is the case you will need to take expenses off .... and allow for some tax as well

Maybe he does think 81% after expenses ... in that case your suns are right baller (except for tax) .... but even 10 times NPBT isn't a bad multiple


If mac isn't, then expenses would be at least another 20-30% i am assuming... then would make quite a difference.
which therefore, multiple of 10 would be $1.7, at 15 would be $2.55

[winner69]

Mac, what is your valuation for PEB when it reaches 100million dollars revenue.
If 81% gross margin, roughly 28 EPS, if P/E at 10 would give us $2.80, P/E at 15 would give us $4.2.
Are my calculations overly optimistic?

I think when MAC talks margins he is talking Gross Margin

If that is the case you will need to take expenses off .... and allow for some tax as well

Maybe he does think 81% after expenses ... in that case your suns are right baller (except for tax) .... but even 10 times NPBT isn't a bad multiple

[baller18]

I think when MAC talks margins he is talking Gross Margin

If that is the case you will need to take expenses off .... and allow for some tax as well

Maybe he does think 81% after expenses ... in that case your suns are right baller (except for tax) .... but even 10 times NPBT isn't a bad multiple
Edited to 'if he isn't'

[Snow Leopard]

Baller18

PEB has stated a Gross Margin of ~80% I believe. Gross Margin is the direct costs of inputs (raw materials, labour, etc) for producing something and leaves out all sorts of things (costs of buildings, machinery, sales force, the tea lady, R&D, etc, etc & etc).
So you do need to factor in an awful lot of other expenses and then you have to pay you tax.

So half your profit forecast, at least, and go from there

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[Xerof]

Come on you stragglers, give the 66 bid for all youve got and we can shut up shop on the rights trading.

Hurry along now please

[Balance]

Come on you stragglers, give the 66 bid for all youve got and we can shut up shop on the rights trading.

Hurry along now please

Was a size seller out there but broker found a buyer for his last 184,276 rights and crossed at 66c?

[Minerbarejet]

Lets see who blinks first.
Yikes - a late arrival!

[pierre]

They still have till the 27th to take up the offer so all may not be lost.

Now that rights trading is over what do you think is likely to happen to the SP from tomorrow?

[blocker3]

They still have till the 27th to take up the offer so all may not be lost.

Now that rights trading is over what do you think is likely to happen to the SP from tomorrow?

An excellent question pierre. Personally I have no idea if the SP will go up or down.Watching with interest and lets hope up. Cheers

[baller18]

I have a question and it prob doesn't make any sense. But I've seen some posters on here, saying it goes down durings rights issue, and will go up after trading of rights end.

Why is this?
Market sentiment? Then don't want to pay more for shares, when its on offer for bit of a discount?

I always thought, if people wants shares, they would just buy regardless if its trading rights or not...

[baller18]

Got ya hancocks, so the key here is the dilution of the SP.
Thanks again

[warthog]

I have a question and it prob doesn't make any sense. But I've seen some posters on here, saying it goes down durings rights issue, and will go up after trading of rights end.

Why is this?
Market sentiment? Then don't want to pay more for shares, when its on offer for bit of a discount?

I always thought, if people wants shares, they would just buy regardless if its trading rights or not...

The rights announcement means that there will be a dilution in existing head shares once rights are exercised, as there are more heads on issue, post-rights, than before.

How much this affects the share-price is complex, but essentially is a combination of one's view of the company, its prospects, etc., given the latest news and rights issue (i.e. what the proceeds will be used for), and a pricing calculation based on how much the heads are trading at prior to rights being exercised.

Note that there may be extra rights issued to purchase heads at the exercise price depending on take-up of the rights by existing shareholders.

Of course, one might also observe that during the rights period there will be some limited arbitrage and positioning by shareholders (for example: sell heads, buy more rights, exercise rights) which will affect the price of heads and rights.

But this is on the margins.

Mostly it is about perception of value, given the company's prospects in light of the rights issue.

[baller18]

thanks heaps warthog!

[Dentie]

Don't want to be accused of ramping here, but we seem to have a classic "bullish" pennant formation on the charts (including oversold indicators on stochastics, RSI and CCI).

In my VERY HUMBLE opinion, we have about a week or so to travel and all will be revealed .... and I'm picking a further surge upwards.

As always, I'm happy to have my education further enhanced by experienced chartists.

[Balance]

Don't want to be accused of ramping here, but we seem to have a classic "bullish" pennant formation on the charts (including oversold indicators on stochastics, RSI and CCI).

In my VERY HUMBLE opinion, we have about a week or so to travel and all will be revealed .... and I'm picking a further surge upwards.

As always, I'm happy to have my education further enhanced by experienced chartists.

Few more days to go.

There will be a few more sellers needing money to pay for rights.

Post capital raising, most stocks recover and resume price trajectory.

[Xerof]

Dentie, see post
http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?2705-Pacific-Edge-Biotechnology&p=441527&viewfull=1#post441527

could still play out as a flag. Needs to bounce around a few more times to become clearer which formation it is.

perhaps it falls to fill that gap from 1.06 first?

In either case, your predicted eventual outcome is the most likely.

[Dentie]

Dentie, see post
http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?2705-Pacific-Edge-Biotechnology&p=441527&viewfull=1#post441527

could still play out as a flag. Needs to bounce around a few more times to become clearer which formation it is.

perhaps it falls to fill that gap from 1.06 first?

In either case, your predicted eventual outcome is the most likely.

Thanks Xerof.

Let's hope there is no gap filling .... will just delay the inevitable

[Minerbarejet]

Certainly some gaps now -on the sell side.

[gv1]

looks like some good news coming for buy side bit strong.

[Dentie]

Don't want to be accused of ramping here, but we seem to have a classic "bullish" pennant formation on the charts (including oversold indicators on stochastics, RSI and CCI).

In my VERY HUMBLE opinion, we have about a week or so to travel and all will be revealed .... and I'm picking a further surge upwards.

As always, I'm happy to have my education further enhanced by experienced chartists.

....And then trading for today begun.....

It may not take a week ... if we close above 1.35 today and it consolidates from there then the pennant will be broken ... and it will be hang onto your hat time again I believe.

Geez, hope I don't have to scrape egg off my dial!

[jonu]

I came back in yesterday @ 122, hoping/guessing for a lift after the end of rights trading. So far so good. I've traded in & out a fair bit but I think I will be looking to hold from here on.

[GR8DAY]

I came back in yesterday @ 122, hoping/guessing for a lift after the end of rights trading. So far so good. I've traded in & out a fair bit but I think I will be looking to hold from here on.

......now doing the same JONU, good call (i hope)

[jonu]

......now doing the same JONU, good call (i hope)

Just blame me if you do well, not the other way round:confused:

[gv1]

Hi Sparkytheclown,
Any opinion on this one?

[janner]

I hold. Tightly.

Good response Sparky..

Disc. Holding, insufficiently.. .

[Balance]

Good response Sparky..

Disc. Holding, insufficiently.. .

Insufficiently?

I felt rotten when sp moved above $1.00 as one never have enough when that happens.

Imagine how you feel if PEB announces a deal with Medicade and the sp spikes to $3.50?

:D

[janner]

It all comes down to " balance " in the end :-)




Insufficiently?

I felt rotten when sp moved above $1.00 as one never have enough when that happens.

Imagine how you feel if PEB announces a deal with Medicade and the sp spikes to $3.50?

:D

[gv1]

I hold. Tightly.
Thanks buddy, great to hear from you. Hope all is well.