PEB - Pacific Edge Ltd

[False Profit]

False Profit - you have a good handle for this thread - like it

Yeah but everyone wants to be a Winner ;)

[Bobcat.]

It hasn't really dropped much, little trades have gone through at ranges of 1.44 and etc...

My strategy is two fold: if

a) the price rises to punch through what I've just sold at (i.e. 149c), then I buy on the up, otherwise if
b) the price continues to fall as it is now, I buy in again where it looks like support is confirmed...in a few days time (after this report is more publically digested and no more news for a week or so brings with it less interest and hype).

BC

[gv1]

Geez - panic merchants

All jumping ship based on figures of 2 months ago ... it would be good to know what the sales figures are on a cumulative annual basis - as at today???????

maybe some should take a leaf from the XRO thread and start pricing the shares on what the sales are going to be in 6 years time - rather than looking behind!!!

Exactly Dentie, but it will be good for holders who wanted more from rights issue and couldn't get it but now could get in as the reports shows, they had 54% more sales and this number will keep increasing.

[blobbles]

Following on from my "private sales" comment...

You have 70k new bladder cancer patients a year. In the time the lab was open that is about 10k patients diagnosed with bladder cancer... say one in ten actually did some research on the internet about their condition and found CxBladder (it would be hard to miss). Say only 1 in 10 went and ordered a test... that would still be ~100 tests and 50k in revenue. But I just saw - page 6 - two sold in the US. Hmmmm....

[ddrone]

Following on from my "private sales" comment...

You have 70k new bladder cancer patients a year. In the time the lab was open that is about 10k patients diagnosed with bladder cancer... say one in ten actually did some research on the internet about their condition and found CxBladder (it would be hard to miss). Say only 1 in 10 went and ordered a test... that would still be ~100 tests and 50k in revenue. But I just saw - page 6 - two sold in the US. Hmmmm....

1/1000 is probably more accurate and look, that's about what we have. It's not like buying a pregnancy test and even then someone that thought they were pregnant would go to a doctor to get a proper check. Until it's offered and fully endorsed by doctors sales won't move dramatically. Consumers aren't self informed to that degree when it comes to medical care. If they were, everybody would be buying testing kits the minute any kind of self diagnosable issue arose instead of simply talking to their doctor and then (and this is key) taking their advice, not the internet.

[Xerof]

First commercial sales in the USA were only announced in mid October. So nothing was ever going to appear in this report

[Dentie]

Following on from my "private sales" comment...

You have 70k new bladder cancer patients a year. In the time the lab was open that is about 10k patients diagnosed with bladder cancer... say one in ten actually did some research on the internet about their condition and found CxBladder (it would be hard to miss). Say only 1 in 10 went and ordered a test... that would still be ~100 tests and 50k in revenue. But I just saw - page 6 - two sold in the US. Hmmmm....

And when those 2 poor buggers find out how CxBladder saved them, they'll tell 2 others and they'll each tell 2 others....much like compounding interest Blobbles...and we all know how quickly that mounts up!!

[biker]

"the mighty sell-off" - of 3%, after yesterdays 11% gains, careful holders, duping is afoot.
Don't get played.

Indeed. And the reality is today's vwap is 1.487

[robbo24]

And when those 2 poor buggers find out how CxBladder saved them, they'll tell 2 others and they'll each tell 2 others....much like compounding interest Blobbles...and we all know how quickly that mounts up!!

The next report will show a large % increase in US sales if there was only 2 this round ;)

[Harvey Specter]

Following on from my "private sales" comment...

You have 70k new bladder cancer patients a year. In the time the lab was open that is about 10k patients diagnosed with bladder cancer... say one in ten actually did some research on the internet about their condition and found CxBladder (it would be hard to miss). Say only 1 in 10 went and ordered a test... that would still be ~100 tests and 50k in revenue. But I just saw - page 6 - two sold in the US. Hmmmm....have you bought a 23andme test yet? Why not?

[blobbles]

have you bought a 23andme test yet? Why not?

"Why should I?" is the better question.

[silu]

I liked that the share price didn't go crazy after the announcement. So it seems what was reported was largely expected. However, I will closely monitor the trend of the SP as smart money will decide how to interpret the report and forward looking statements. Will keep a tight stop-loss at $1.38.

[Lorne Ranger]

For those of you who havent already come across this on the DIL site....

Pretty solid day considering the predictably unspectacular report. I'm guessing most people knew what the report would show, knew that any action so far was from October onwards, and realised the story hasn't changed from this morning.

Bodes well for next week and beyond but it may depend on how long people will wait for anotehr announcment before the next figures are released. Might be a little more scrutiny on sales figures for the next quarterly than before.

Those that dont really buy into the potential might present some good top up opps over the coming week, but I dont see it dropping too far, if at all, as the potential is the story and that seems to be nicely on track, so I suspect a few more buyers (me included) ready to snap up a few more. Maybe Dec 4 will be a mini test of investor confidence.

[Lorne Ranger]

Wow, well that was nowhere near what we all thought, even those "doom merchants" who said a hundred sales at most. 3 sales! Monday will be the tester; traders have a weekend to digest all this, and I don't think it will be very pretty when they start to cotton on. as usual, the next report will be the real teller for us, but that is another 6 months away. in the mean time.

I think BC did the right thing. if it holds, sweet, buy on an uptrend above $1.50, but if it crashes, at least you're out for now!

Actually thats not true, personally I didnt think there had been any sales yet. Three is a comical number, in some ways none sounds better, but I'm not sure people were expecting much more? End of September, nothing sales wise going on before that. Could be wrong and can only speak for myself.

The idea of people selling out on the news doesnt make sense either. I would be surprised if people bought this stock for the pre September sales volumes, I believe they bought for the potential of future sales, which is untouched by this report.

Lets help our friend Moosie calibrate: Were people honestly surprised at the lack of sales to the end of September?

[Bobcat.]

Monday's normally more of a buyer's day than a holder/seller's - i.e. prices tend to drift lower.

I've sold not so much on fundamentals, which I agree are strong, but on:
a) chart technicals -- today's high of 153 is lower than yesterday's 160 which could be trending down from last month's 164 (adjusted). If Monday we have a lower high (i.e. less than 153) and a lower low (i.e. less than 143), then that would confirm for me a downward trend (probably short-term?).
b) market sentiment following the half year report which although not unexpected by many on this thread, still reads poorly financially.

I hope I'm wrong for the sake of those still holding, but my guess (which I'm trading to) is that bears will be in control until the next announcement.

Remember also that over the next few weeks (one, two or three) we are likely to see a significant correction to Equity markets as Hedge Funds, etc take profits and begin to close accounts for the year.
When that happens, biotechs will be vulnerable given their risk profile.

BC

[Dentie]

Monday's normally more of a buyer's day than a holder/seller's - i.e. prices tend to drift lower.

I've sold not so much on fundamentals, which I agree are strong, but on:
a) chart technicals -- today's high of 153 is lower than yesterday's 160 which could be trending down from last month's 164 (adjusted). If Monday we have a lower high (i.e. less than 153) and a lower low (i.e. less than 143), then that would confirm for me a downward trend (probably short-term?).
b) market sentiment following the half year report which although not unexpected by many on this thread, still reads poorly financially.

I hope I'm wrong for the sake of those still holding, but my guess (which I'm trading to) is that bears will be in control until the next announcement.

Remember also that over the next few weeks (one, two or three) we are likely to see a significant correction to Equity markets as Hedge Funds, etc take profits and begin to close accounts for the year.
When that happens, biotechs will be vulnerable given their risk profile.

BC

So there you have it - all you Traders out there ... don't say you haven't been warned.

But nothing's changed for the Investors, except for some good topping up opportunities coming up by the sounds of it.

[baller18]

Wow, well that was nowhere near what we all thought, even those "doom merchants" who said a hundred sales at most. 3 sales! Monday will be the tester; traders have a weekend to digest all this, and I don't think it will be very pretty when they start to cotton on. as usual, the next report will be the real teller for us, but that is another 6 months away. in the mean time.

I think BC did the right thing. if it holds, sweet, buy on an uptrend above $1.50, but if it crashes, atleast you're out for now!

Yes, next report is 6 months away.
I bet you, next announcement with a provider won't be 6 months away.
If the announcement is with medicare, you would want to be in huh?
8.6 million people increased the SP by 18% intraday high, imagine what 150 million would do? :)
Why be out for now? who knows when the next provider is signed up?
ACP was signed up 2 days after fedmed...
So who knows huh?
And like many people have said, if PEB can signed 2, they can get the third (which they have). If they can sign 3, can they do 4,5 or 8?
I'll rather be in than out.

[baller18]

Wow, well that was nowhere near what we all thought, even those "doom merchants" who said a hundred sales at most. 3 sales! Monday will be the tester; traders have a weekend to digest all this, and I don't think it will be very pretty when they start to cotton on. as usual, the next report will be the real teller for us, but that is another 6 months away. in the mean time.

I think BC did the right thing. if it holds, sweet, buy on an uptrend above $1.50, but if it crashes, atleast you're out for now!

Yes, next report is 6 months away.
I bet you, next announcement with a provider won't be 6 months away.
Even 1month, 2 months is too long for a trader, so totally understand!
If the announcement is with medicare, you would want to be in huh?
8.6 million people increased the SP by 18% intraday high, imagine what 150 million would do? :)
Why be out for now? who knows when the next provider is signed up?
ACP was signed up 2 days after fedmed...
So who knows huh?
And like many people have said, if PEB signed 2 up, they can get the third (which they have). If they can sign 3, can they do 4,5 or 8?
I'll rather be in than out.
Churrrrr

[MAC]

So there you have it - all you Traders out there ... don't say you haven't been warned.

But nothing's changed for the Investors, except for some good topping up opportunities coming up by the sounds of it.

Yes Dentie, and of course next week, post allotment, PEB will return $8.4M in held unallocated cash to existing PEB shareholders to do with as they please, it may well be buy the dips time, if traders kindly provide such an opportunity.

[Snow Leopard]

Today's announcement of the conversion of preference shares to ordinary shares worried me when I saw the percentage of total class issued 2.5%.

Luckily someone can not use a calculator and the result is nearer to 0.25%.

Meanwhile there was another announcement today which was even less exciting.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[Rego55]

I personally think the shares will drift lower - maybe closer to the 1.40 mark next week. Not because the report said anything inherently bad but mainly because it didn't say anything amazing and there'll be a few people out there who enjoyed the activity while it lasted and will now move on to something new. My impression is that people trade on news and no news is not good news for them so they'll pull out and find a new stream to play in. Personally, I like the look of the product. I would like to get in but not at the current price and I'll be watching on regulation of LDTs. I'd like to know how Cxbladder stacks up in terms of the rigor put into the product testing by PEB. I assume it's pretty good but would be nice to know to hear some commentary from them on possible regulation and how they feel they'd negotiate any possible barriers in the future. N'est-ce pas?

[karen1]

PEB, love you long time; some poster have premature evaluation.

Razorblades for breakfast, Hancocks?

Love it, think this one has to be the best!

[Balance]

PEB, love you long time; some poster have premature evaluation.

Will always be the case, Hancocks, that short term traders will be attracted by uptrending volatile stocks.

Makes them feel like masters of the stock trading universe, buying in and selling out for 10% odd gain.

Then talking up or talking down the stock to fit their trading position.

Meanwhile, those who patiently invest and sit on the stock makes several hundred %tage gains - like PEB from 28 cents to $1.40 (400%).

The short term traders make their 25% and good on them.

So come one, come all - it's all in perspective.

One thing for sure, those of us who have followed your postings know we owe you big for being so patient and your willingness to share your analysis and knowledge.

Cheers and wishing you a good weekend!

Let's enjoy the fact that PEB is post its capital raising and is sitting close to its all time high.

[MAC]

Perhaps you all can check my understanding of the cxbladder loop with this example, not having a background in insurance myself;

Say Chuck is a machine operator in Ohio who has just had another routine random drug test, no drugs were discovered as usual, but the drug test lab noted blood present in the urine sample. Quite worried, Chuck appropriately takes the afternoon off work, goes to his trusted GP who for caution refers him onto a specialist. (Aside, this scenario happened to a former colleague of mine when he visited Tiwai Point).

The specialist urologist pops a cxbladder test kit out of his draw and while Chuck is in the next room peeing in a jar for the second time in a week the urologist fills out the accompanying form with all Chuck’s important insurance and policy number details. Chuck does not have medicare coverage but does have a plan with ACME insurance which is provided through his employer.

PEDusa receives Chucks sample, processes it, and returns the test results within six days. The urologist explains to Chuck that there is no cancer, must have been last week’s spicy meatloaf, but come back for a follow up test in six months to be sure.

PEDusa note from their database that ACME insurance are a registered client of one of the PPO’s with whom PEDusa have a contract to deliver tests at a special price of $550. PEDusa thus invoice ACME directly at this special rate and duly receive payment within the next accounting cycle.

Chuck gives up meatloaf, continues to produce widgets in the factory, and lives happily ever after satisfied knowing he was neither probed nor charged a cent.

So, between the signed up PPO’s that PEB now have on the books, FedMed, ACPN, and Stratose there are presently 60 million potential Chuck’s with standing insurance policies, ready and waiting if a cxbladder test is required. Have I got this right ?

[Balance]

I enjoy a researched negative; or, a researched positive post, the traders can post some good perspective although it can get a bit cluttered sometimes.

My post was just me venting, some of the posters can spark an argumentative response in me and I don’t want to get involved in that. So I go for a graffiti attack and that is paint their metaphoric fence when they are asleep and run away chuckling, it give me some degree of satisfaction, but is unfortunately a shot-gun approach.

Haha, Hancocks, even saints have limits to their patience and I don't think you would want to be considered a saint!

The ones I find most amusing (and maybe most annoying) are those who do bugger all analysis, have missed the boat and ruefully watch from the shore, jumping up and down at every small wave pronouncing that the small wave is going to capsize the super liner!

What to do but throw them a few sympathy glances once a while?

[Minerbarejet]

Just a point if anyone can help. They say there have been three sales. Does this mean there have been three actual cases processed through the lab in Hershey, accounts have been sent and payment received. Presumably there is a bit of the old " 20th of the month following" which gives a lead time of about six weeks in some cases. So in real terms the sales figure could possibly only reflect July to Mid August and possibly none of September at all
Perhaps it would be more revealing to know how many kits are going out the door rather than in.:)

[Intel]

Perhaps you all can check my understanding of the cxbladder loop with this example, not having a background in insurance myself;

Say Chuck is a machine operator in Ohio who has just had another routine random drug test, no drugs were discovered as usual, but the drug test lab noted blood present in the urine sample. Quite worried, Chuck appropriately takes the afternoon off work, goes to his trusted GP who for caution refers him onto a specialist. (Aside, this scenario happened to a former colleague of mine when he visited Tiwai Point).

The specialist urologist pops a cxbladder test kit out of his draw and while Chuck is in the next room peeing in a jar for the second time in a week the urologist fills out the accompanying form with all Chuck’s important insurance and policy number details. Chuck does not have medicare coverage but does have a plan with ACME insurance which is provided through his employer.

PEDusa receives Chucks sample, processes it, and returns the test results within six days. The urologist explains to Chuck that there is no cancer, must have been last week’s spicy meatloaf, but come back for a follow up test in six months to be sure.

PEDusa note from their database that ACME insurance are a registered client of one of the PPO’s with whom PEDusa have a contract to deliver tests at a special price of $550. PEDusa thus invoice ACME directly at this special rate and duly receive payment within the next accounting cycle.

Chuck gives up meatloaf, continues to produce widgets in the factory, and lives happily ever after satisfied knowing he was neither probed nor charged a cent.

So, between the signed up PPO’s that PEB now have on the books, FedMed, ACPN, and Stratose there are presently 60 million potential Chuck’s with standing insurance policies, ready and waiting if a cxbladder test is required. Have I got this right ?
I believe your pretty close, but missing the key piece of the puzzle. ACME (as an inurance provider) still has to approve CX-bladder as a product that they will re-imburse. The economic evaluation of a product will be decided by those that pay the money (the insurance companies), so we must wait until they are satisifed that using Cx-bladder is worth more to them than the status quo! These PPO's that have been signed, really do act as middle men and payment processors. One of the benfits for a small insurer is to hook into these networks as the networks become large and they ca push on price by buying on bulk. If you go and have a look at the largest health insurers in america (Kaiser, Wellpoint, United Health, Aetna, BSBC) they have coverage of ~ 10m + lives, and because of this will have extensive networks of their own (as Frank lucas famously put it, "go direct to the manufacturer, cut out all the middlemen"). I must admit I am quite astonished at how the market has priced these PPO deals, they dont allow someone to be reimbursed for using CX-bladder, and in fact their business model relies on having every medical product available on earth on their books so they can clip the ticket as often as possible.. Lets hope thenext signing is an insurance provider, allthough I wouldnt really be expecting that until at least March - June next year...

[Casino]

so we must wait until they are satisifed that using Cx-bladder is worth more to them than the status quo!

Are you refering to cost-efficiency or pure clinical utility? Also do you know by any chance who most of the relevant demographic - old men with history of smoking - are insured with?

[psychic]

I believe your pretty close, but missing the key piece of the puzzle. ACME (as an inurance provider) still has to approve CX-bladder as a product that they will re-imburse. The economic evaluation of a product will be decided by those that pay the money (the insurance companies), so we must wait until they are satisifed that using Cx-bladder is worth more to them than the status quo! These PPO's that have been signed, really do act as middle men and payment processors. One of the benfits for a small insurer is to hook into these networks as the networks become large and they ca push on price by buying on bulk. If you go and have a look at the largest health insurers in america (Kaiser, Wellpoint, United Health, Aetna, BSBC) they have coverage of ~ 10m + lives, and because of this will have extensive networks of their own (as Frank lucas famously put it, "go direct to the manufacturer, cut out all the middlemen"). I must admit I am quite astonished at how the market has priced these PPO deals, they dont allow someone to be reimbursed for using CX-bladder, and in fact their business model relies on having every medical product available on earth on their books so they can clip the ticket as often as possible.. Lets hope thenext signing is an insurance provider, allthough I wouldnt really be expecting that until at least March - June next year...

Thanks Intel - well summed up. Hopefully this will clarify for all. :t_up:

[MAC]

And that’s entirely fair isn’t it Intel, why should an insurer pay until they have already pre-approved cxbladder as one of their policy diagnostic tests. I guess the good thing about getting the PPO’s on board, as a first step, is that they may also assist PEB in endorsing and possibly pushing the 30% reduction in work up cost message to the insurers.

But, it is a five year plan not a five day plan after all, and the initial thrust may well be getting the PPO’s on board, gaining insurer approvals as they go, and GP’s and urologists progressively giving it a go once they know the patients don’t have to pay. I suspect though we will never know when insurers have pre-approved, or how many, this might be a good question for the next AGM in Dunedin.

In terms of SP valuation, I reckon bringing the PPO’s on board and having price points contractually set is good progress and PEB have recently affirmed that they are on track in meeting the five year $100M revenue goal.

My FA suggests PEB is fairly priced at present at $1.50, undervalued if you hold with the view that the $20.5M capital raising and the earlier engagement of the 19 sales staff will bring forward the proposed revenue stream.

[psychic]

Just a point if anyone can help. They say there have been three sales. Does this mean there have been three actual cases processed through the lab in Hershey, accounts have been sent and payment received. Presumably there is a bit of the old " 20th of the month following" which gives a lead time of about six weeks in some cases. So in real terms the sales figure could possibly only reflect July to Mid August and possibly none of September at all
Perhaps it would be more revealing to know how many kits are going out the door rather than in.:)

It would be for all tests to 30 Sept, including those due say 20th Oct but unpaid.

[Harvey Specter]

Just a point if anyone can help. They say there have been three sales. Does this mean there have been three actual cases processed through the lab in Hershey, accounts have been sent and payment received. Presumably there is a bit of the old " 20th of the month following" which gives a lead time of about six weeks in some cases. So in real terms the sales figure could possibly only reflect July to Mid August and possibly none of September at all
Perhaps it would be more revealing to know how many kits are going out the door rather than in.:)i guessed 3 sales based on us revenue on NZ$2k. That is revenue so would mean invoice issue, not necessarily paid. They may have received a few more pots of piss but not invoiced yet - it depends on their revenue recognition policy (refer DIL for complications companies face).

I also point out that guess is based on revenue. They may have done lots of free tests as part of user trials, new customer sign ups etc. I don't think the testers would have been doing nothing, waiting for the mail each day.

[MAC]

Here's the present sales status from the recent capital raising presentation for those who didn't participate. It does seem that the first significant sales fell just outside the HY reporting period, shame really, but it equally seems all a bit academic within a five year plan.

5121

[Minerbarejet]

Ok thanks everyone.
Now what I get out of all that is the kits are sold for x dollars and the processing comes later at x dollars.
A bit like film processing back in the days when they did such things.
Do you get a free kit thrown in with your process results?:)

[golden city]

not convinced yet.., director are selling shares..take profit..indicating price is high enough

[MAC]

Capital raisings dust, lot’s to look forward to in 2014 when you pick through recent releases;

Announcements ahead, prospectively for Medicare/Medicaid, Veterans Association, Kaiser Permanente, Intermountain and perhaps other big insurers, probably a continuation of PPO’s coming on board too.

New markets, Europe through Oryzon in early 2014, Asia also, perhaps insurer agreements here too.

New products, Cxbladder (triage) scheduled to be ready in Q2, and Cxbladder (predict) in Q4.

There’s the $20.5M cash injection, sales team increasing from 4 to 20, initiating the 19 US sales territories.

Several US user programmes now complete should turn into ongoing orders, and the insurers may probably start demanding the anticipated clinical and economic benefits by prodding GP’s and urologists.

Hopefully some progress on the product pipeline, and that Queensland user programme to assess cxbladder as a replacement for ultrasound in a clinical setting.

A busy enough year ahead for PEB and investors both!

[CC1]

does anyone know what date we find out how many shares in total we were successful in obtaining in the recent rights issue?

and what date rights become tradable?

[GR8DAY]

......so what has happened to NZ sales?, have they actually had any yet? (cant be many,if any, with total sales per week currently sitting at about $650!)

[clip]

does anyone know what date we find out how many shares in total we were successful in obtaining in the recent rights issue?

and what date rights become tradable?

trading the rights has been and gone, i think we get allocated our shares on the 4th from memory, then you can trade the actual shares, i presume the rights may be removed from DB/ASB automatically but more likely you'll just have to delete them and update your holding with the number you have been granted/obtained

[Harvey Specter]

......so what has happened to NZ sales?, have they actually had any yet? (cant be many,if any, with total sales per week currently sitting at about $650!)YOu could read the announcement. From memory, they had about $15k worth.

Remember there were user trials on during that period so they would have been doing tests for free.

[GR8DAY]

YOu could read the announcement. From memory, they had about $15k worth.

Remember there were user trials on during that period so they would have been doing tests for free.


........I wonder if the $15,000 (worth) were also given away for free??

[Harvey Specter]

........I wonder if the $15,000 (worth) were also given away for free??You cant book revenue if you dont receive it. They could have given a grant to a hospital to pay for it but dont think that would be ok.

[TimmyTP]

NZSilver, thank you, you reminded me of a company called Research Review, whose business is to sort through medical research papers and highlight the good bits.

Can anyone on this thread legitimately sign up & let us know what sort of coverage they are giving to CxBladder &c?
http://www.researchreview.co.nz/nz/Clinical-Area/Surgery/Urology.aspx
http://www.researchreview.com.au/au/Clinical-Area/Surgery/Urology.aspx
Bumping my own post here, hoping that someone can help.
I know that this publication is very widely read amongst the medical community in NZ, so I think it would be well worthwhile to know whether they are presenting articles on Bladder Cancer and if/how CxBladder is represented there.
Ta

[croesus]

Have now sold all of my PEB, except of course the rights shares.

Whilst there could be a announcement anytime, I suspect as the rights shares are allocated the temptation for profit taking could cause a steady decline in Share Price.
Still a believer and will buy back in. either when the prices has eroded somewhat, or on the back of the next ( positive ) announcement.

Regards.

[barney]

"Two User Programmes in New Zealand – a combined study of 178 patients with macro-haematuria (blood in urine) has found that Cxbladderdetect outperforms cytology and saw 90% of all tumours. The full results are being prepared for publication."

Due to be published in the new year, March I think.

[Balance]

Have now sold all of my PEB, except of course the rights shares.

Whilst there could be a announcement anytime, I suspect as the rights shares are allocated the temptation for profit taking could cause a steady decline in Share Price.
Still a believer and will buy back in. either when the prices has eroded somewhat, or on the back of the next ( positive ) announcement.

Regards.

Good on you, Croesus.

Nothing wrong with adding liquidity to the market and a little volatility.

[skid]

Have now sold all of my PEB, except of course the rights shares.

Whilst there could be a announcement anytime, I suspect as the rights shares are allocated the temptation for profit taking could cause a steady decline in Share Price.
Still a believer and will buy back in. either when the prices has eroded somewhat, or on the back of the next ( positive ) announcement.

Regards.

There will be some flak on this one :)
But you know what they say about a bird in the hand....

[Jay]

Carrying free at present but will watch the price

[croesus]

Why flak..... ?
this is a open forum, ( called " Sharetrader " ) my view is that the S/P will weaken from the $1.46 which I got at open this morning. ( ps I sold my other PEB shares in the last couple of weeks ).

But yes a bird in the hand.... describes my strategy very well... also don't forget the millions of PEB shares the Masfens unloaded a couple of months ago... the new owners of them are sitting on over 100% gain.

They may also wish to lock in some of that Landslide profit

[geo]

Look's like next year will be interesting. What I don't like is having a information vacuum regarding sales and revenue for another six months.
It's hard to make an informed decision to increase my holding unless we regular updates on money coming in and out.
When DD said we want to make sure there is upside for our investors, reporting sales every three months would good upside as far as i'm concerd.

[blobbles]

Look's like next year will be interesting. What I don't like is having a information vacuum regarding sales and revenue for another six months.
It's hard to make an informed decision to increase my holding unless we regular updates on money coming in and out.
When DD said we want to make sure there is upside for our investors, reporting sales every three months would good upside as far as i'm concerd.

I have already contacted David Darling about this, he replied "We don't expect to transition to quarterly updates until our sales volume would warrant that". So it seems if they start doing quarterly reporting, that is a sign they are selling a reasonable amount.

[MAC]

Look's like next year will be interesting. What I don't like is having a information vacuum regarding sales and revenue for another six months.
It's hard to make an informed decision to increase my holding unless we regular updates on money coming in and out.
When DD said we want to make sure there is upside for our investors, reporting sales every three months would good upside as far as i'm concerd.

Agree, I’m not sure what PEB’s view might be on quarterly reporting, perhaps something for the next AGM ?.

Like us PEB I think have a challenge in trying to estimate the early part of the curve, it seems to me that it takes a wee kick start of momentum amongst health professionals to really get things moving, but when this type of technology takes, boom, they’ll all want to use it.

The best metric may just remain the rate of PPO, DHB and large insurer sign up announcements for now. There’re are hundreds of insurers in the US and I don’t think we will see them announced, only the big players that are not PPO affiliated, so quarterly reports would provide better information.

[Harvey Specter]

It's hard to make an informed decision to increase my holding unless we regular updates on money coming in and out.Regular updates? They announced a new contract, then they announced another new contract, then they announced first commercial sale, then they announced another new contract. Somewhere in there, I think they also announced a contract with a DHB.

I'd call that pretty regular considering that is all in the past two months.

[geo]

I have already contacted David Darling about this, he replied "We don't expect to transition to quarterly updates until our sales volume would warrant that". So it seems if they start doing quarterly reporting, that is a sign they are selling a reasonable amount.

Thanks for that Blobbles knew you would be on to it.

[geo]

Regular updates? They announced a new contract, then they announced another new contract, then they announced first commercial sale, then they announced another new contract. Somewhere in there, I think they also announced a contract with a DHB.

I'd call that pretty regular considering that is all in the past two months.

What I meant show us a balance sheet every quarter, Free cash flow less liabilities,
R O A, ROE that kind of stuff.

[Harvey Specter]

What I meant show us a balance sheet every quarter, Free cash flow less liabilities,
R O A, ROE that kind of stuff.I know that.

But as a shareholder, I would prefer they spend their money on getting sales. Even unaudited accounts are time consuming and expensive.

[geo]

I know that.

But as a shareholder, I would prefer they spend their money on getting sales. Even unaudited accounts are time consuming and expensive.

What could turn out to be expensive investing more capital not knowing the full facts.

[Casino]

What could turn out to be expensive investing more capital not knowing the full facts.

But the facts are known. Only very few doctors will use very few tests in the first year. Any sudden and surprising change would certainly be reported via NZX announcement. For now, you can rest assured that they are not selling many, which is to be expected.

[skid]

I know that.

But as a shareholder, I would prefer they spend their money on getting sales. Even unaudited accounts are time consuming and expensive.

I would guess the accountant would have to keep up with that sort of stuff anyway(if they are worth their salt)--just be a matter of sharing the info.
Real sales are the missing ingredient now and Im starting to sense that people are starting to get hungry for something they can get their teeth into in that area.

Up till now its been rather Wham-Bam----would anyone really object to slow steady growth?

After all -this is not the latest new electronic craze--things sometimes take time

[Harvey Specter]

I would guess the accountant would have to keep up with that sort of stuff anyway(if they are worth their salt)--just be a matter of sharing the info.An extra amount of rigor is required if you are going to disclose to the market, even if unaudited.

I assume they could be more similar to XRO in disclosing the number of tests done (or paying entities in XRO cases) but even XRO doesn't announce this as often as some people would like.

[Dentie]

I would guess the accountant would have to keep up with that sort of stuff anyway(if they are worth their salt)--just be a matter of sharing the info.
Real sales are the missing ingredient now and Im starting to sense that people are starting to get hungry for something they can get their teeth into in that area.

Up till now its been rather Wham-Bam----would anyone really object to slow steady growth?

After all -this is not the latest new electronic craze--things sometimes take time

I wonder if they are using XRO accounting products .... instantaneous figures I believe ...

[winner69]

I wonder if they are using XRO accounting products .... instantaneous figures I believe ...

With Xero they could allow everybody access and we all could instantaneously see what the sales are - and the forward orders as well - every day

Now I am jus being stupid .....but would keep the punters happy eh

[Minerbarejet]

With Xero they could allow everybody access and we all could instantaneously see what the sales are - and the forward orders as well - every day

Now I am jus being stupid .....but would keep the punters happy ehmaybe we could all wear a head unit with a flip down display that activates automatically on each sale. These could be issued to shareholders for a nominal fee with a two year warranty:)

[Casino]

maybe we could all wear a head unit with a flip down display that activates automatically on each sale. These could be issued to shareholders for a nominal fee with a two year warranty:)

Or at least give us a dictionary with definitions for expressions like 'gangbusters'.

http://blog.xero.com/2013/04/heres-to-xero-partners-around-the-world/

5 months later Xero had a combined 16600 customers in their ROW + USA market. For instance, I would have never guessed that gangbusters = 16600 - total customers in USA - ROW customers that signed up between 23th of April and 30th of September.

[Toasty]

Or at least give us a dictionary with definitions for expressions like 'gangbusters'.

http://blog.xero.com/2013/04/heres-to-xero-partners-around-the-world/

5 months later Xero had a combined 16600 customers in their ROW + USA market. For instance, I would have never guessed that gangbusters = 16600 - total customers in USA - ROW customers that signed up between 23th of April and 30th of September.

Geez Casino. Your agenda is showing. Please cover it up.

[Casino]

The XRO and PEB threads seem attract the same kind of people and some want to draw parallels. I think comparing these two is invalid. There are reasons to scratch your head and wonder if PEB deserves its valuation. But you don't buy anything by more reporting when the company says they don't and won't have much to show for at this stage. I have no reason to doubt that a diagnostic company had $15000 worth of sales in 6 months.

[MAC]

"Two User Programmes in New Zealand – a combined study of 178 patients with macro-haematuria (blood in urine) has found that Cxbladderdetect outperforms cytology and saw 90% of all tumours. The full results are being prepared for publication."

Due to be published in the new year, March I think.

Barney, the capital raising presentation told us that several of the US user programmes with healthcare providers have completed and that these organisations have made their first commercial orders, do you know which healthcare providers these are ?

[skid]

Forgive me ,but Im still a bit confused on these PPO signings--Has the SP gone up 300% because PEB has signed up middle men to promote their product along with all the other products they have on their books--a bit like a mortgage broker?
Are the future sales going to be a result on how good a job these guys do?

[MAC]

Forgive me ,but Im still a bit confused on these PPO signings--Has the SP gone up 300% because PEB has signed up middle men to promote their product along with all the other products they have on their books--a bit like a mortgage broker?
Are the future sales going to be a result on how good a job these guys do?

Hi Skid, I’ve resolved it this way;

The SP has jumped because it was so absolutely undervalued at 61 cents for all that time, the FedMed announcement wasn’t just a catalyst, but seemed to have initiated the step up toward fundamental value.

The three PPO’s signed up thus far offer a packaged network of healthcare providers including PED to the hundreds of insurers in the US to utilise. As Intel points out each insurer still needs to approve for themselves, although I don’t see this as a hurdle and insurers will progressively come on board over time.

There a also a few large insurers that operate outside the PPO networks as they are big enough to have their own healthcare provider networks, PEB are also targeting these organisations also, and from the capital raising information we know they have some presently under negotiation.

[croesus]

Shareprice getting a beating today, and the new shares arnt available to sell yet.

[karen1]

Shareprice getting a beating today.

keeping company with a lot of other stocks today

[clip]

Yep of the 30 on my nzx watchlist only chorus and moa are up.. lol

[blobbles]

My research has shown that the sign ups of these "providers" in reality means little. They are just organisations that provide payment facilities by covering insurers. They sign up anyone and everyone as far as I can see. Look for sign ups from insurers for real promise.

It does show you how utterly wasteful the US health system is though. You have all these middle men before you get to the actual healthcare, payment providers, insurers... All in the name of "efficiency" but it seems more like they are all making a healthy profit along the way... No wonder Obama wants to dismantle it, it's a mess that looks after execs and accountants, not aimed at looking after patients.

[gv1]

Just like any other stock Snapiti. e.g if there is terrorist attack, airport and airline shares are affected. this is one stock in NZX will mimic xero.

[MAC]

what you say is correct, I am a holder of PEB and think the shareprice, given the available info, is way ahead of itself.
Not selling or buying just holding but realise that there is alot of risk attached to this stock

Couldn’t disagree more, if you go back on the thread a few months you will find most long term holders regarded PEB as grossly undervalued, someone described it as a coiled spring waiting and ready for someone to tickle a hair trigger, as it turned out that someone was FedMed.

We should expect sales growth to accrue at a rate commensurate with the strategic commercial plan PEB have provided us with, it’s a five year plan and they tell us it will take that long to get the existing lab up to 4000 tests per year, $100M in revenues and 10% of market share.

My FA provides me with a valuation range, for the US cxbladder revenue stream only, of $1.40 through $2.30, based on a goal range of six months late through one year early.

I’m looking forward to the new year to perhaps receive a little more information from PEB on the Europe and Asia markets and revenue streams, it would be nice to include those in assessing valuations.

[Casino]

Couldn’t disagree more, if you go back on the thread a few months you will find most long term holders regarded PEB as grossly undervalued, someone described it as a coiled spring waiting and ready for someone to tickle a hair trigger, as it turned out that someone was FedMed.

We should expect sales growth to accrue at a rate commensurate with the strategic commercial plan PEB have provided us with, it’s a five year plan and they tell us it will take that long to get the existing lab up to 4000 tests per year, $100M in revenues and 10% of market share.

My FA provides me with a valuation range, for the US cxbladder revenue stream only, of $1.40 through $2.30, based on a goal range of six months late through one year early.

I’m looking forward to the new year to perhaps receive a little more information from PEB on the Europe and Asia markets and revenue streams, it would be nice to include those in assessing valuations.

Biotechs have an average sales multiple of 6x.

http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~%20adamodar/New_Home_Page/datafile/psdata.html

Current PEB market cap is roughly 4x of sales 5 years out. I can't see any discount at these levels.

[MAC]

Biotechs have an average sales multiple of 6x.

http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~%20adamodar/New_Home_Page/datafile/psdata.html

Current PEB market cap is roughly 4x of sales 5 years out. I can't see any discount at these levels.

That’s interesting Casino thanks for that, there are a couple of things to consider, sectors evaluations include a range of companies not just growth stocks like PEB but mature biotech’s too, also you can't really compare market caps vs sales and achieve a meaningful outcome as growth companies are discounted to different extents representatively for unique risks.

Have a go at a DCF on that revenue stream, let us know how you get on.

[Balance]

Just heard CxBladder advert on radio for first time an hour or so ago.

Goes along lines of 'Bladder cancer is more common than people think - 1 in 4. Blood in urine is a common symptom and now with one simple test etc .'

Good to see the publicity now cranking up.

[Casino]

That’s interesting Casino thanks for that, there are a couple of things to consider, sectors evaluations include a range of companies not just growth stocks like PEB but mature biotech’s too, also you can't really compare market caps vs sales and achieve a meaningful outcome as growth companies are discounted to different extents representatively for unique risks.

Have a go at a DCF on that revenue stream, let us know how you get on.

4-6x multiples are really really generous. My alarm bells go off when people throw around 10x multiples let alone 100X multiples. Here's a link that I a had already posted on the XRO thread but I see no harm in posting/reading it twice: http://abovethecrowd.com/2011/05/24/all-revenue-is-not-created-equal-the-keys-to-the-10x-revenue-club/

Are there additional blue skies that we can secretly hope for? I believe so. That's why I hold despite feeling that it has gone up too quick for the wrong reasons (I have reduced recently). Here is how I roughly estimate sales to build up:

Nov 2014: 1M or less
Nov 2015: 5M or less
Nov 2016: 15M or less
Nov 2017: 50M and cashflow positive
Nov 2018: 100M

All of this assumes CMS coverage, which is likely but not certain. I find it impossible to estimate how roll-out of the other Cx products will impact on cashflows. Any thoughts are appreciated.

[MAC]

wake up mac, several months ago PEB was undervalued when i bought at 50 cps.
Now it has tripled in value, has it chance's of success tripled in value since then I think not.
If you believe what they have announced over the last two months is worthy of a tripling of the share price I believe you do not fully understand what the announcements actually mean.

Yes they are moving forward, yes I am happy to hold the share but I believe the stock is trading on more hype than facts and figures.
Under valued at 50cps over valued at 1.40.

I'm in PEB for the long term Snapiti, what traders do in the short term really concerns me not, I perform FA based on company released objectives and associated revenue targets, it serves me well, and you're welcome to disagree.

Growths stocks often have leaps and jumps as risk falls away allowing them to approach ever closer to fundamental value, and PEB has de-risked an enormous amount over the last year.

I can understand how some would see a big SP jump in isolation as exceptional, but equally this stock has enormous potential for an NZX listed company and I would not be at all surprised to see PEB as a $5 stock in a just a few years time.

Jump in and out as you may please, I see more risk in doing that than just holding and keeping PEB in the bottom draw, each to their own.

[Balance]

I'm in PEB for the long term Snapiti, what traders do in the short term really concerns me not, I perform FA based on company released objectives and associated revenue targets, it serves me well, and you're welcome to disagree.

Growths stocks often have leaps and jumps as risk falls away allowing them to approach ever closer to fundamental value, and PEB has de-risked an enormous amount over the last year.

I can understand how some would see a big SP jump in isolation as exceptional, but equally this stock has enormous potential for an NZX listed company and I would not be at all surprised to see PEB as a $5 stock in a just a few years time.

Jump in and out as you may please, I see more risk in doing that than just holding and keeping PEB in the bottom draw, each to their own.

Traders add noise to the discussions, and liquidity.

But as I have written before, they buy at 52c and flick out at 57c, $1.25 and flick out at $1.35, believe they are doing very well and I say, good on them.

What they miss out of course is the real movement from 52c to $1.35.

And so on and so forth.

Next major announcement will take the stock to $2.00 so let the traders talk the stock down in the meantime.

[Balance]

The likelihood is that the next major announcement will be before Christmas - based upon logic and historical observations.

[Casino]

I really like the stock but I think sales traction is going to be slower than most poeple think.

My estimates are based on these here:

http://www.linkedin.com/pub/chris-walls/4/71a/500

[barney]

Barney, the capital raising presentation told us that several of the US user programmes with healthcare providers have completed and that these organisations have made their first commercial orders, do you know which healthcare providers these are ?

I don't think the company has disclosed that detail yet Mac. I presume that the clinicians to whom PEB sold their first test in the US come from one of these.

[barney]

4-6x multiples are really really generous. My alarm bells go off when people throw around 10x multiples let alone 100X multiples. Here's a link that I a had already posted on the XRO thread but I see no harm in posting/reading it twice: http://abovethecrowd.com/2011/05/24/all-revenue-is-not-created-equal-the-keys-to-the-10x-revenue-club/

Are there additional blue skies that we can secretly hope for? I believe so. That's why I hold despite feeling that it has gone up too quick for the wrong reasons (I have reduced recently). Here is how I roughly estimate sales to build up:

Nov 2014: 1M or less
Nov 2015: 5M or less
Nov 2016: 15M or less
Nov 2017: 50M and cashflow positive
Nov 2018: 100M

All of this assumes CMS coverage, which is likely but not certain. I find it impossible to estimate how roll-out of the other Cx products will impact on cashflows. Any thoughts are appreciated.

You could be right Casino. But then again Harbour could also be right. It will certainly be interesting.

http://www.harbourasset.co.nz/wp-content/uploads/2013/11/Harbour-October-2013-Equity-Commentary-website.pdf

[Casino]

You could be right Casino. But then again Harbour could also be right. It will certainly be interesting.

http://www.harbourasset.co.nz/wp-content/uploads/2013/11/Harbour-October-2013-Equity-Commentary-website.pdf

I saw that and wondered what they based it on. I honestly don't give much weight to what these analysts release. It's usually crap.

[barney]

I saw that and wondered what they based it on. I honestly don't give much weight to what these analysts release. It's usually crap.

Your probably right. Buying in at 19 cents indeed. The cheek of it.

[Casino]

thanks for that link casino.

No worries. Has anyone read/access to the articles listed here, particularly 'coding for utility'?

http://www.biocentury.com/products/certndx

[Casino]

found it and it's very informative! Looks like you could have made a lot of money with dodgy science in the past. Now, medicare contractors (MAC) are given some discretion and only the robust stuff gets through.

http://media.drugwonks.com/media/attachments/51e67d5d2017a828be00000b.pdf?1374059870

Interesting excerpts:

According to Cassigneul, the CGS medical director informed Predictive that to receive coverage the company “would
have to do a randomized prospective clinical
utility study which would have to be
published in the NEJM or JAMA, and the
test should be written into the clinical
guidelines” for the MAC to consider coverage.
Cassigneul said it would take 18-24
months to complete such a story, several
months to get it published, and the wait
could be further extended for an unpredictable
period because clinical guidelines
are updated every three to five years.
Even if Predictive invested the resources
to produce the requested data,
there is no assurance that the goalposts
will remain fixed, according to Cassigneul.
Moreover, he added, if Predictive managed
to secure coverage, Medicare reimbursement
would not increase to compensate
for the cost of the trials, and
would not reflect either its medical value
or the expense required to demonstrate
its utility.

...

CGS declined to discuss its coverage
decision for CertNDx, but spokesperson
Adam Myrick suggested the Medicare contractor
doesn’t agree with Cassigneul’s
characterization of the requirements for
coverage.
“We don’t recommend or require studies
or clinical trials as a means of providing
evidence of clinical utility,” said Myrick.
He added: “The process for determining
coverage is fluid. If more evidence is
made available or developed, then we’ll
review and reassess.”
Myrick noted the non-coverage decision
was made possible by the new coding
system. “No specific codes for molecular
pathology existed prior to Jan. 1, 2013.
Now each test has been assigned a code.
Each code is priced and coverage decisions
are made test by test,” he said.

...

To obtain coverage under MolDx, the
applicant “has to show that [the test] in
fact makes a difference, that it improves
patient outcomes and/or changes physician
behavior for the management of the
patient,” Jeter told BioCentury.
Palmetto only accepts data from peerreviewed,
published studies.
Palmetto’s preference is for “at least
two well-controlled and designed studies,”
Jeter said. “They don’t have to be
randomized controlled trials. They could
be cohort, observational or case controlled
studies.”
Retrospective studies are acceptable,
she added.
Jeter obtains technology assessments
from subject matter experts at universities
and in industry.

Same story in Forbes:
http://www.forbes.com/sites/scottgottlieb/2013/03/27/medicare-has-stopped-paying-bills-for-medical-diagnostic-tests-patients-will-feel-the-effects/

[Dentie]

casino this is all very much in line with what STC has said in the past.
For PEB to be successful it needs to be entered into the giudelines (doctors published clinical guidelines).
What poeple are forgetting is the US is a lawyers paradise and it is difficult to get doctors to use products that are not in the written clinical guidelines.

Hopefully PEB will get that far (I am sure it will) but this will take some time years even.
However getting the 2 big insurers on board is the next step.

Maybe it's about time the US (& others!) started making lawyers accountable for the way they intervene in & control important areas of life - for no other reason than filling their own pockets?

[Dentie]

have to agree but the pen is mightier than the sword.
Lawyers spend 1/3 of the time you are paying for trying to get one over the oppositions solicator,(lawyers have big ego's) 1/3 of the time you are paying for covering thier own ass and 1/3 of the time you are paying them for on you.

Oh, sounds like you've learnt the hard way too Snapiti? I really know your words (above) are the truth. Don't want to divert the thread (but it is before breakfast I guess...) but in one personal experience my lawyer was openly discussing with my opposition's lawyer (right in front of me!!) who was going to win and who was going to make the most fees between the two of them. They're a special breed ... sorry, I'm outta here...NOW!!!

[Casino]

casino this is all very much in line with what STC has said in the past.
For PEB to be successful it needs to be entered into the giudelines (doctors published clinical guidelines).
What poeple are forgetting is the US is a lawyers paradise and it is difficult to get doctors to use products that are not in the written clinical guidelines.

Hopefully PEB will get that far (I am sure it will) but this will take some time years even.
However getting the 2 big insurers on board is the next step.

I'm just relieved to see that they go case by case and that there is some flexibility so good products go through. I think there is little risk for a doctor to order in a non-invasive lab test. Look at how many lab test were used under the old rules, which had basically no clinical utility. The certndx story is a very fishy example and shows that you need a moat against such entrants.

[Casino]

One must also allow for the fact that once(if) PEB makes it into the clinical bible's it will be a $10 share.
disc happy to be holding

for how many issued shares?

[Casino]

LOL yes have noted the current valuation of the company@ $1.40 p/s.
there certainly are alot of shares on issue.

there might be more in a few years or all held by Roche...

[croesus]

Has any one been advised on how many extra shares they picked up in the rights issue ??
Cheers

[MAC]

[QUOTE=barney;446833]You could be right Casino. But then again Harbour could also be right. It will certainly be interesting.

http://www.harbourasset.co.nz/wp-content/uploads/2013/11/Harbour-October-2013-Equity-Commentary-website.pdf [/QUOTE (http://www.harbourasset.co.nz/wp-content/uploads/2013/11/Harbour-October-2013-Equity-Commentary-website.pdf%5b/QUOTE)]

Crumbs if PEB were to achieve 80% gross margins on that, all that free cash might just clear the product pipeline and suck the University of Otago dry of ideas.

[baller18]

Hey guys, when do we get our rights loaded to our portfolio? Cheers!

[MAC]

Has any one been advised on how many extra shares they picked up in the rights issue ??
Cheers

The over subscription was scaled back to 11% I think, if any were going to sell their original entitlement shares they would have probably just sold those rights a couple of weeks back.

Is today the day that PEB investors get their $8.4M in unallocated cash returned to them to play with or is that tomorrow ?

[baller18]

For anyone else whose with asb, it gets loaded on the 8th of December.

[geo]

4-6x multiples are really really generous. My alarm bells go off when people throw around 10x multiples let alone 100X multiples. Here's a link that I a had already posted on the XRO thread but I see no harm in posting/reading it twice: http://abovethecrowd.com/2011/05/24/all-revenue-is-not-created-equal-the-keys-to-the-10x-revenue-club/

Are there additional blue skies that we can secretly hope for? I believe so. That's why I hold despite feeling that it has gone up too quick for the wrong reasons (I have reduced recently). Here is how I roughly estimate sales to build up:

Nov 2014: 1M or less
Nov 2015: 5M or less
Nov 2016: 15M or less
Nov 2017: 50M and cashflow positive
Nov 2018: 100M

All of this assumes CMS coverage, which is likely but not certain. I find it impossible to estimate how roll-out of the other Cx products will impact on cashflows. Any thoughts are appreciated.

Thanks for the link Casino excellent read.

[Minerbarejet]

Isnt this fun, all the traders running around playing musical shares (sic) with the price until the next announcement when everyone has to find a seat pronto. In some cases blindfolds are included but these can be used to wipe away tears.:crying:

You may have to load the shares issued under rights in yourself - dont know exactly how many in the Oversubscription yet though- good things take time.:)

[Bobcat.]

Price is approaching key support level of 130.

If that doesn't hold, I see buying opportunities just north of 120.

[silu]

My stop-loss has been reached. Waiting for that 1pm bounce before selling.

[False Profit]

130 reached. Big support at 128. Still waiting for the knife to stop falling...

[tosspot]

correct me if im wrong but our rights issue shares are trade able today arnt they. not showing in my automated portfolio on asb securities

[baller18]

doesn't get loaded till 8th of December...

[ddrone]

doesn't get loaded till 8th of December...

Mine have come through via Direct Broking.

[jghomer]

doesn't get loaded till 8th of December...

mine are showing up on directBroking.
yesterday shown as PEBRC, today they have been added to my PEB holding.
All automatic. very happy with DB.

[clip]

Announcement on NZX just now related. Mine aren't showing on ASB or on the NZX shareholder entitlement lookup, I think someone mentioned earlier ASB would load them on the 8th?

Notice of Issue of Shares under Renounceable Rights Offer 10:55am, 4 Dec 2013 | ALLOT NOTICE OF CHANGE IN ISSUED CAPITAL STOCK - ORDINARY SHARES
Pursuant to NZX Listing Rule 7.3.4(a)
Pacific Edge 2:15 rights issue
Pacific Edge Limited is pleased to advise the allotment of new shares (as detailed below) following a rights issue pursuant to the amended Simplified Disclosure Prospectus dated 25 October 2013
Notice of Issue of Shares under Renounceable Rights Offer
Company: Pacific Edge Limited
ISIN: NZPEBE0002S1
Date: 4 December 2013
Date of Issue: 4 December 2013
Class of securities issued: Ordinary shares
Issued Capital Prior To Issue (Previous Issued Capital – Listed): 280,889,784
Number of securities issued: 37,358,637
Issued Capital Subsequent To Issue (Total Issued Capital - Listed): 318,248,421
Issue price: $0.55 per share, being $20,547,250.35.
Payment in cash?: Yes
Amount paid up: Fully paid
Percentage of total class issued: 13.3 %
Terms or details of the issue: New ordinary shares which rank equally with other fully paid ordinary shares.
Specific authority for the issue: Resolution of directors dated 4 December 2013 and NZX Listing Rule 7.3.4(a).
Reasons for the issue: Pursuant to a pro-rata renounceable rights offer of 2 new shares for every 15 existing shares held as at 5pm on 7 November 2013, being the Record Date, as per registered Prospectus dated 23 October 2013 (as amended by Memorandum of Amendments to registered Prospectus dated 25 October 2013), under which 35,560,814 shares were issued under the entitlement offer and 1,797,823 shares were issued under the oversubscription facility.
Chris Swann
Chairman
Pacific Edge Limited

[baller18]

I rang asb...
Damn I need to change to DB, cheaper rates and more effective it seems!

[Mista_Trix]

Also showing up on ANZ :)

[ddrone]

Also showing up on ANZ :)

ANZ = Direct Broking

[gloworm]

They haven't shown up with Link Market Services yet, which is the most important place.

[Toasty]

Direct Broking have done mine too. I see there is no oversubscription though. Just the amount I was entitled to. Does this mean no extras :( , or is there advice still to come?

[croesus]

If $1.28.... does not hold... not much support till $1.20c

[Minerbarejet]

Probably a lot of people offloading rights issue shares for a quick double your money.
Hanging onto mine.

[kyanar]

Link has updated with my allocation - oversubscription wasn't even scaled for me (such a pitiful amount though :mellow:)

[Xerof]

those who applied for 100% oversubscriptions have got 7.2% :(


MAC

Is today the day that PEB investors get their $8.4M in unallocated cash returned to them to play with or is that tomorrow ?

Prospectus says within 10 working days, but they are usually quicker than that

Mr Magoo, as graphically repeated in Robert Winston's series 'child of our time'

come on, sell me your marshmallows.....now

:p

[Dentie]

The timing of the rights issue coincided with some market releases under the continuous disclosure rules that meant the associated share price gains have gifted a timely Christmas present for some holders. Their strategies to maximise that gift may be questionable but hey, each to his own.

The Stanford marshmallow experiment refers to a series of studies on delayed gratification in the late 1960s and early 1970s led by psychologist Walter Mischel, then a professor at Stanford University. In these studies, a child was offered a choice between one small reward (sometimes a marshmallow, but often a cookie or a pretzel, etc.) provided immediately or two small rewards if he or she waited until the experimenter returned (after an absence of approximately 15 minutes). In follow-up studies, the researchers found that children who were able to wait longer for the preferred rewards tended to have better life outcomes, as measured by SAT scores, educational attainment, body mass index (BMI) and other life measures.

:D :D :D :D :D :D

In Dentie's real life experience, every time I have exhibited patience - the outcome 100% of the time has been much, much better than if I had given in to the earlier temptation - that is fact! I admit sometimes it has been hard to resist the temptation, but have never been sorry about waiting for the better outcome. Mind you, hindsight provides 20/20 vision.

[croesus]

$1.28.... didnt last long $1.26. next

Question for chartists.... is there a gap between 1.05 to 115c ????... is there any truth that 99% of gaps are filled... ie the price would have to drift down to 105 to fill the gap...

[clip]

Looks like low volume to 1.26, someone trying to trigger stop losses perhaps? I had a sell in at 1.29, i don't think I will be dropping it though I would rather hold my shares than sell out that low

[croesus]

Clip... im picking $1.05c ... your 3c down at 1.26, 24c down if I am right.

Before any one shrills down ramping... note I have been suggesting for a while this will happen.... its cold logic... millions of shares at over 100 % immediate gain a couple of weeks before Christmas... and in the last week or so, every buyer is clutching at a very sharp falling knife. ouch.

[zymwh]

Enjoy youself croesus lol

[Xerof]

Croesus,
It originally looked like a breakaway gap, which was unlikely to be filled, but after the failed breakout from the pennant, it formed a bearish Gartley. A target for that structure is indeed ~105. (I put up a post re this possibility a couple of days ago, but pulled the post as I didn't want to be seen frightening the natives)

Here's the Gartley: compare it to the PEB daily chart so far. A close well below 130 should confirm it has further to go towards that area

5139

[clip]

Clip... im picking $1.05c ... your 3c down at 1.26, 24c down if I am right.

Before any one shrills down ramping... note I have been suggesting for a while this will happen.... its cold logic... millions of shares at over 100 % immediate gain a couple of weeks before Christmas... and in the last week or so, every buyer is clutching at a very sharp falling knife. ouch.

Not sure if 'you're 3c down at 1.26, 24c down if i am right' is suggesting that I bought at 1.50?

[777]

I hear PEB advertising the bladder procedure on the radio. Ask your doctor for it etc.

Not sure this is good or not when I think of some recent advertisers doing the same.

[croesus]

Thanks Xerof. .... that's a new one on me... but it looks logical enough...I suspect once we get to 115c... there may be a rush to get out of the burning nightclub,

ZYMWH... no I am not enjoying myself.... its logic.... had a similar discourse with some of the Snakk followers.. they were worse, reminded me of teenage girls going to a Boy Band..

were they amped....

fortunately one of them , manned up and bet me a bottle of red, Thanks Moose. ( btw.. are you at work this week, I can drop that book in for you to borrow )

[croesus]

Clip... I meant.. if you were happy to sell at 1.29.... but could sell now at 1.26... then you get 3 c less then you hoped for.

But if you hang in to they get to 105c... then have to sell. that's another 21c less, then biting the bullet at 1.26.

Or you could hold to they steadily climb back to 1.29... hopefully... who knows...

[clip]

Ahh I getcha. I don't need to sell any, really.. I just want to pick up more NTL while they are .1c cheaper on the ASX they are in NZ.. just preparing for what I imagine will be a period of good news/results EO14/FH15

[Lost in space]

Immensely satisfying day hoovering up stock @ 1.25 - 1.28. Moves my average overall buy price on nice holding up to 0.52 but oh "what such fun"!

[Balance]

Good to see David darling kept his word, and subscribe for as much neww shares as the sold in $ amount.

[silu]

Sold mine just now at $1.30. Rather ride the wave and pick dirty bottoms.

[False Profit]

Anybody know of any other renounceable rights issues going ahead with other shares either here or abroad?

[Nigel]

What percentage of your requested oversubscription amount did you get? I know 11.6% had been bandied about as the expected amount, but I only got 7.2% of what I asked for in the oversubscription pool. How did the rest of you fare??

[zymwh]

I do not know yet. I am with DB

[baller18]

What percentage of your requested oversubscription amount did you get? I know 11.6% had been bandied about as the expected amount, but I only got 7.2% of what I asked for in the oversubscription pool. How did the rest of you fare??
Same as you mate, 7.2%

[biker]

Yep, 7.2% for me .
I assume that was announced some where, but I haven't seen it.

[Harvey Specter]

What percentage of your requested oversubscription amount did you get? I know 11.6% had been bandied about as the expected amount, but I only got 7.2% of what I asked for in the oversubscription pool. How did the rest of you fare??As I tried to explain earlier, those who only applied for small amounts of their entitlement appear to have been treated better, plus those with really small holdings got the full amount (though I think that was only upto $1k).

If you had only applied for 8% of your entitlement, you would have got the same exact amount that you did. I obviously read the prospectus wrong as I applied for the full amount too. Those smarter than us obviously read it properly.

[777]

I do not know yet. I am with DB

DB won't tell you. Go to the share registry to look at your holding.

http://linkmarketservices.co.nz

[psychic]

Yes, 7.2% here

We assumed 11.6% from this announcement:

28 November 2013
Under the terms of the pro rata renounceable rights offer a total of 2.0 million New Shares were available for subscription in the Oversubscription Facility. Valid applications were received for 17.2 million New Shares under the Oversubscription Facility. Accordingly Pacific Edge will not offer any New Shares for sale under a shortfall bookbuild. Eligible Shareholders who subscribed for New Shares under the Oversubscription Facility will be allocated the lesser of:

a. The number of additional New Shares applied for under the Oversubscription Facility; and
b. The number of additional New Shares applied for under the Oversubscription Facility, scaled in proportion to their Entitlement.

But then this came out:

4 Dec 2013
under which 35,560,814 shares were issued under the entitlement offer and 1,797,823 shares were issued under the oversubscription facility.

Dunno.

[zymwh]

Thanks. Yes 7.2% for me

[Balance]

Yes, 7.2% here

We assumed 11.6% from this announcement:

28 November 2013
Under the terms of the pro rata renounceable rights offer a total of 2.0 million New Shares were available for subscription in the Oversubscription Facility. Valid applications were received for 17.2 million New Shares under the Oversubscription Facility. Accordingly Pacific Edge will not offer any New Shares for sale under a shortfall bookbuild. Eligible Shareholders who subscribed for New Shares under the Oversubscription Facility will be allocated the lesser of:

a. The number of additional New Shares applied for under the Oversubscription Facility; and
b. The number of additional New Shares applied for under the Oversubscription Facility, scaled in proportion to their Entitlement.

But then this came out:

4 Dec 2013
under which 35,560,814 shares were issued under the entitlement offer and 1,797,823 shares were issued under the oversubscription facility.

Dunno.

Note that those who apply and have less than minimum holding gets topped up first to enable them to hold a minimum holding, so %tage will go down.

[Xerof]

This thread is as quiet as the PA was today....

the 'Gartley' structure I posted yesterday could still play out, but I liked the way the price has held above 130. Could be a nice series of higher highs and higher lows playing out

I bought a wee lot at the close on the strength of that, but happy to buy more it it were to fall back and complete the Gartley/gap filler

[Minerbarejet]

Everyones waiting for their refund cheques probably

[janner]

Everyones waiting for their refund cheques probably

Correct in my case :-)

To near Christmas to have any spare cash..

[QOH]

Everyones waiting for their refund cheques probably
Is there a date for receiving our refunds?

[Minerbarejet]

Is there a date for receiving our refunds?
Prospectus item 9.5 says the excess application moneys will be refunded to applicants without interest within ten business days of allotment ( dec 4th). Should make it by Christmas! Maybe.

[janner]

Prospectus item 9.5 says the excess application moneys will be refunded to applicants without interest within ten business days of allotment ( dec 4th). Should make it by Christmas! Maybe.


Refunded monies will still be directed at PEB.. At the dips expected over the Christmas period :-)

[Lorne Ranger]

Refunded monies will still be directed at PEB.. At the dips expected over the Christmas period :-)

GIven the hefty dips in so many other stocks over the past days, I feel spoilt for choice as to where to invest my refund! Not a bad problem to have i guess.

I agree that holding ground at 1.30, even when all concerned will have thier extra 55c shares by now bodes pretty well for a solid support base. Im liking PEB more each day...... and each day brings up closer to a further development.

[Minerbarejet]

GIven the hefty dips in so many other stocks over the past days, I feel spoilt for choice as to where to invest my refund! Not a bad problem to have i guess.

I agree that holding ground at 1.30, even when all concerned will have thier extra 55c shares by now bodes pretty well for a solid support base. Im liking PEB more each day...... and each day brings up closer to a further development.No great retrenchment while;
others are falling,
we suffer the christmas doldrums,
a rights issue has been completed with dilution,
a lacklustre announcement that had to be made was made,
and funds currently tied up for oversubscribers;
resistance to this combined pressure looks encouraging.
Cheers:)

[Toasty]

Correct in my case :-)

To near Christmas to have any spare cash..

I would be surprised if anyone on this forum needs a refund cheque to survive Christmas.

[Balance]

When good stocks you have get sold off, Warren Buffett says you should rejoice - because it gives you the option to buy more at a cheaper price.

Means you have to keep a bit of spare cash all the time though.

[Bobcat.]

PEB closed at 130 last night, providing the third pivot on its upward trendline : 112 - 121 - 130.

That upward trend is now being threatened. If tonight's close is sub-130 then IMO we will see it drop to test 125 and then 121....

I'm getting no buy signals yet.

BC

[whatsup]

Everyones waiting for their refund cheques probably

2 weeks before that happens !

[MAC]

There are a couple of websites that I keep a bit of an eye on and they are Pacific Edge’s partners Healthscope (Australian sales) and OryzonDX (Spain & Portugal Sales); both of these websites have changed recently and both reflect the new Cxbladder marketing terminology, format, colours and display the new test kits colours and photos. But the points of most interest to me are:

Healthscope Limited

Hyperlink: Healthscope Pathology Cxbladder (http://www.healthscopepathology.com.au/index.php/advanced-pathology/cxbladder/)

Text of interest: Healthscope Pathology is the partner of Pacific Edge in Australia and can now assist both patients and clinicians with Cxbladder testing.

OryzonDX Limited

Hyperlink: OryzonDX Diagnostic Products (https://www.oryzondx.com/en/diagnostic-products)

Test of interest: Oryzon currently offers diagnostic tests for the detection of endometrial, bladder and ovarian cancers

Hyperlink: OryzonDX Limited Cxbladder (https://www.oryzondx.com/en/cxbladder-bladder-cancer)

Text of interest: The Cxbladder® test is commercialized in Spain and Portugal by Oryzon Genomics under exclusive license from the New Zealander company Pacific Edge Ltd. Cxbladder® is a registered TradeMark of Pacific Edge Ltd.

Both of these sites have previously advised the test will be available in late 2013; there must have been some good progress because they both indicate they are doing the biso!

All seems good to go Hancocks, nice websites now too, presumably PEB must have achieved the European Union Standards CE mark registration by now to launch in Spain in the new year, although as far I'm aware it's not been formally announced ?

http://www.pacificedge.co.nz/about-us/quality-assurance/

[winner69]

Kuntsler tells us what is really going on in the world, esp the US

Latest rave is just that but I did wonder how PEB would manage in an environment described as this -

So-called “health care” is also a hostage racket, since sick people are hardly in a position to bargain for anything, but it is only a sub-system of the larger matrix of rackets that have made this such an unusually dishonest society. My guess is that ObamaCare is sure to make it worse, and pretty quickly too, since the rules for ObamaCare were written by the hireling lobbyists of the industries that benefit from the racketeering.

Just wondering I was

For those interested the whole post -

http://kunstler.com/cluster****-nation/between-a-rock-and-a-squishy-place/

[croesus]

This thread has been quiet.

Bit more selling evident, this morning.....

[Whipmoney]

Waiting for a tastier price ;)

Try sub $1.15. Expecting a retracement to come in the absence of any further 'developments'.

[couta1]

Seems a lot of resistance to let this stock drift much lower, hope it continues, looks like Snaaks got strong resistance at 12c also

[NZSilver]

I agree - sitting between 127-130. I cant see much happening without another announcment, but I think its riskier being out of PEB then in!

[croesus]

That's true Long John, but remember how they tanked from the mid 70c when Masfen Investments unloaded at 65c ( 60 or 65 cant remember )

down to the low 50s from memory... not expecting any news for a bit, so if another corporate takes some of the windfall available... I would nt be surprised to see a similar % drop... so 80 /90 c... who knows..

[Nigel]

I would nt be surprised to see a similar % drop... so 80 /90 c... who knows..

Can't see that happening (although I've been wrong many times before!)

[Bobcat.]

I'm likewise in at the moment only to the extent of my rights purchase.

Better plays elsewhere until the new year IMO. Putting my PEB proceeds into SEA (to purchase next week under the SPP at 1.6c). Unless the next PEB announcemet is a big one, with an impressive sales forecast, I'd be very surprised if it lifts as sharply as it did earlier from 50c to 1.70 in just two weeks. I'm anticipating a narrow channel until Sales are firmed up and revenue grows. Profitability and divi can of course come later, but I'd like to see significant and well grounded sales & revenue forecasts before buying at these levels.

Closer to $1, however, and I'll look to get some for the bottom drawer.

[Balance]

Next significant announcement which will definitely lift sp is expected before 20th December - nice Christmas pressy from NZX. :)

That's what I am told.

[Nigel]

Next significant announcement which will definitely lift sp is expected before 20th December - nice Christmas pressy from NZX. :)

That's what I am told.

Told by....? Do tell...

[Balance]

Next significant announcement which will definitely lift sp is expected before 20th December - nice Christmas pressy from NZX. :)

That's what I am told.

Broker told me, and requested I not pass on infor until all of his clients are set.

No guarantee but 90% certainty.

[croesus]

Next significant announcement which will definitely lift sp is expected before 20th December - nice Christmas pressy from NZX. :)

That's what I am told.

Here your chance... tell us.. or at least tell us who told you....

will buy you a bottle of ( cheap ) sherry if you do !!

[Balance]

Here your chance... tell us.. or at least tell us who told you....

will buy you a bottle of ( cheap ) sherry if you do !!

I just wonder about all the backfoot buying now with the stock - there's plenty on offer at $1.30 and above as the sellers keep coming out.

But the buyers keep stepping up and take stock on the backfoot.

If they all take two steps back, I think PEB will be back to $1.20 myself.

So something is afoot?

[baller18]

Mr Balance, do brokers get the information before it is announced by PEB?

[Balance]

Mr Balance, do brokers get the information before it is announced by PEB?

Predictive information, baller18.

I can tell you instances though where my broker told me something 2 hours before the NZX released it! Price sensitive infor released to the market, but NZX's minder was asleep at the pub.

[baller18]

Predictive information, baller18.

I can tell you instances though where my broker told me something 2 hours before the NZX released it! Price sensitive infor released to the market, but NZX's minder was asleep at the pub.
Whoaa! pays to have a broker!!!
Thanks X2

[TimmyTP]

Next significant announcement which will definitely lift sp is expected before 20th December - nice Christmas pressy from NZX. :)

That's what I am told.
With the greatest respect to Balance, whose integrity I have no reason to doubt - for the benefit of less experienced readers, if you ever see a "hot tip" on any website, please treat it with extreme caution.

[baller18]

Yes, thanks for the heads up tim.
I'm happy with my holding, so not going to add, just happy to be in PEB :)

[croesus]

Only 6000 approx. shares between 128c and 126c.... would be getting nervous if I had paid $1.45c plus. Stop loss territory

[Jay]

Whoaa! pays to have a broker!!!
Thanks X2

And put alot of work thru them or at least a nice tidy sum invested I would imagine, I do neither and hence use an online "broker" but one day...

[jonu]

Broker told me, and requested I not pass on infor until all of his clients are set.

No guarantee but 90% certainty.

You aving a larf old son? R Ya, R Ya, R Ya?

[gv1]

Only 6000 approx. shares between 128c and 126c.... would be getting nervous if I had paid $1.45c plus. Stop loss territory
Nothing wrong,I bought some at 1.55, lots of potential with this stock.

[Balance]

Only 6000 approx. shares between 128c and 126c.... would be getting nervous if I had paid $1.45c plus. Stop loss territory

Precisely.

So why are buyers happy to keep taking stock?

Let the sp drop.

[Balance]

With the greatest respect to Balance, whose integrity I have no reason to doubt - for the benefit of less experienced readers, if you ever see a "hot tip" on any website, please treat it with extreme caution.

You are onto it, TimmyTP.

Check the track record of the poster first and foremost, and assess whether the poster has been around, posted accurate information in the past and sticks around.

I am passing infor on, which strictly speaking I will get excommunicated by my broker if he sees the actual predictive infor on site!

So take it for what it is worth.

[couta1]

Only 6000 approx. shares between 128c and 126c.... would be getting nervous if I had paid $1.45c plus. Stop loss territory
Why would you worry if your in for the long haul and believe in the company?

[Harvey Specter]

Broker told me, and requested I not pass on infor until all of his clients are set.

No guarantee but 90% certainty.What boiler room told you this?

90% certainty it will happen or 90% certainty their small clients will hold up the shareprice while their big client exits?

:t_up:

[Xerof]

Precisely.

So why are buyers happy to keep taking stock?

Let the sp drop.

I must say I do agree with this observation - it has surprised me how well it's held up, given the 'potential' to cave in to a good dose of profit-taking.

The other bits of heroics are unnecessary, and on other less respected channels would have been moderated and poster suspended within a minute of being posted. BUT, given we don't see this sort of tipping very often, 'onya son :t_up:

[Balance]

I must say I do agree with this observation - it has surprised me how well it's held up, given the 'potential' to cave in to a good dose of profit-taking.

The other bits of heroics are unnecessary, and on other less respected channels would have been moderated and poster suspended within a minute of being posted. BUT, given we don't see this sort of tipping very often, 'onya son :t_up:

Predictive infor, Xerof.

There are good brokers and lousy brokers out there - I have met both kind many times in my years in investing.

A good one will try and predict (after proper analysis and careful consideration) what are likely to happen. A lousy one plays on your fear and greed to churn brokerage.

In the end, you learn to stick with one or two good ones.

I would love to have NZX investigate my postings - they will come out looking like donkeys. How can the NZX say it is keeping investors informed when it is 2 hours late releasing information which is in the public domain!!!!!

Remember the incident last year when their system broke down and only wholesale brokers can see market infor, but NZX continued to keep the market open? And get this, brokers were not allowed to complain publicly to the media as they could be kicked out for causing disrepute to the NZX!

[baller18]

Yes, very weird buyers keep nibbling away at 1.28 and some 1.29 but noone is willing to nibble at $1.3 and no seller at the moment are willing to go below 1.28...

[blobbles]

Predictive infor, Xerof.

There are good brokers and lousy brokers out there - I have met both kind many times in my years in investing.

A good one will try and predict (after proper analysis and careful consideration) what are likely to happen. A lousy one plays on your fear and greed to churn brokerage.

In the end, you learn to stick with one or two good ones.

I would love to have NZX investigate my postings - they will come out looking like donkeys. How can the NZX say it is keeping investors informed when it is 2 hours late releasing information which is in the public domain!!!!!

Remember the incident last year when their system broke down and only wholesale brokers can see market infor, but NZX continued to keep the market open? And get this, brokers were not allowed to complain publicly to the media as they could be kicked out for causing disrepute to the NZX!

You must know this is very dangerous for you Balance, potentially leading to insider trading charges against someone if true, and if not, you will probably be branded a liar and probably on everyones block list pretty quickly. Hell, even I am thinking about sending an email to the FMA just based on info here already.

There is a clear difference to a site being down or someone messing up and being 2 hours late in posting something as opposed to a "hot tip" 10 days out from a supposed announcement.

Pretty shoddy all around, I must say. We are all supposed to be after a fair, open and transparent market, this sort of nonsense starts to make this look like the Chinese stock market.

[couta1]

Dear oh dear.

It is disappointing to see people slyly implying that Balance is somehow profiting from insider knowledge, when it should be reasonably clear, that he/she, like myself and anyone else with brains, will be cultivating expert networks on the shares we own and have high conviction in.

For example, if you had a nice investment in PEB, wouldn't you be inclined to pry yourself away from talking to anonymous pseudonyms on Sharetrader, and instead send some emails to DHBs about their urological practices and whether CXBladder might be a game-changer? Or maybe correspond with Pacific Edge directly? Or perhaps they have friends in the USA who are doctors or scientists, or brokers or fund managers here in New Zealand?

In the age of the internet, expert networks would surely also include the skills Hancocks has shown in data mining information, including from cancer support networks and competitive product users.

The cultivating of expert networks is both an art and skill in broadening understanding of a company. Who wouldn't want to understand all the possible perspectives on a company?

December 20, January 20, February 20, the date is somewhat immaterial in my books. That PEB are close to signing up contracts should not be a surprise since they've signed up a number of contracts already, and that closing sales prior to Xmas is a useful arbitrary deadline that acts as a priority for both PEB's sales execs and the responsible contract signers in health organisations/insurance companies/larger urology practices. Not just in the USA, but probably for NZ and Australia as well.

What I do know is this - those who like rapid-fire trading through technical analysis like to think they can predict the share price movement based on historical patterns. But you'll never be able to predict events with charts like major contracts being announced. They can, and will come out of the blue. Only a long term shareholder is able to benefit from this. I don't mean this as a criticism of TA, merely to state that this is an advantage of long term share holding - I get all the unexpected upside from a company that is aggressively chasing unknown but substantial sales contracts.

Disc: Holding oodles of PEB shares, and eyeing up a new beach house somewhere on the Pacific edge.
Sparky I'd love your thoughts on CNU as I remember you had a lot of them at one stage,are you still holding? Humblest thanks

[Balance]

You must know this is very dangerous for you Balance, potentially leading to insider trading charges against someone if true, and if not, you will probably be branded a liar and probably on everyones block list pretty quickly. Hell, even I am thinking about sending an email to the FMA just based on info here already.

There is a clear difference to a site being down or someone messing up and being 2 hours late in posting something as opposed to a "hot tip" 10 days out from a supposed announcement.

Pretty shoddy all around, I must say. We are all supposed to be after a fair, open and transparent market, this sort of nonsense starts to make this look like the Chinese stock market.

Please send to FMA.

Love for them to investigate the NZX properly.

I am not tipping anything 'hot' which any broker in the land who keeps an eye on the market will be able to try and predict.

This is the problem with some of you who have no idea how the market works - next time i will keep the predictive infor potential to myself.

Looking forward to interacting with the FMA, and for them to investigate how the NZX got a clean pass from FMA after the NZX shut out half the investors out there from sensitive market infor and depth.

While you are at it, send this to the FMA as well :

http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?1501-Guinness-Peat-Group-Plc-(GPG)/page219&highlight=gpg

FMA will be keen to investigate how I tipped GPG would hit 60c.

:D

[Balance]

Dear oh dear.

It is disappointing to see people slyly implying that Balance is somehow profiting from insider knowledge, when it should be reasonably clear, that he/she, like myself and anyone else with brains, will be cultivating expert networks on the shares we own and have high conviction in.

For example, if you had a nice investment in PEB, wouldn't you be inclined to pry yourself away from talking to anonymous pseudonyms on Sharetrader, and instead send some emails to DHBs about their urological practices and whether CXBladder might be a game-changer? Or maybe correspond with Pacific Edge directly? Or perhaps they have friends in the USA who are doctors or scientists, or brokers or fund managers here in New Zealand?

In the age of the internet, expert networks would surely also include the skills Hancocks has shown in data mining information, including from cancer support networks and competitive product users.

The cultivating of expert networks is both an art and skill in broadening understanding of a company. Who wouldn't want to understand all the possible perspectives on a company?

December 20, January 20, February 20, the date is somewhat immaterial in my books. That PEB are close to signing up contracts should not be a surprise since they've signed up a number of contracts already, and that closing sales prior to Xmas is a useful arbitrary deadline that acts as a priority for both PEB's sales execs and the responsible contract signers in health organisations/insurance companies/larger urology practices. Not just in the USA, but probably for NZ and Australia as well.

What I do know is this - those who like rapid-fire trading through technical analysis like to think they can predict the share price movement based on historical patterns. But you'll never be able to predict events with charts like major contracts being announced. They can, and will come out of the blue. Only a long term shareholder is able to benefit from this. I don't mean this as a criticism of TA, merely to state that this is an advantage of long term share holding - I get all the unexpected upside from a company that is aggressively chasing unknown but substantial sales contracts.

Disc: Holding oodles of PEB shares, and eyeing up a new beach house somewhere on the Pacific edge.

Good to see ye presence on this shore, STC, before you bunk up at the new beach house!

:)

[Whipmoney]

Dear oh dear.

It is disappointing to see people slyly implying that Balance is somehow profiting from insider knowledge, when it should be reasonably clear, that he/she, like myself and anyone else with brains, will be cultivating expert networks on the shares we own and have high conviction in.

For example, if you had a nice investment in PEB, wouldn't you be inclined to pry yourself away from talking to anonymous pseudonyms on Sharetrader, and instead send some emails to DHBs about their urological practices and whether CXBladder might be a game-changer? Or maybe correspond with Pacific Edge directly? Or perhaps they have friends in the USA who are doctors or scientists, or brokers or fund managers here in New Zealand?


Hi Sparky, whilst I greatly respect your opinions, views and comments and even those of Balance's (generally) however I must admit that there is marked difference between cultivating a network of 'experts', garnering their expert opinion and making an informed decision on a stock purchase and between having specific (time sensitive) information on a specified deal prior to the rest of the market, with the closure of which having a material effect the price of said share.

The first is good business/investing sense, the later is a breach of the NZX Continuous Disclosure rules 10.1.1.

[Balance]

Hi Sparky, whilst I greatly respect your opinions, views and comments and even those of Balance's (generally) however I must admit that there is marked difference between cultivating a network of 'experts', garnering their expert opinion and making an informed decision on a stock purchase and between having specific (time sensitive) information on a specified deal prior to the rest of the market, with the closure of which having a material effect the price of said share.

The first is good business/investing sense, the later is a breach of the NZX Continuous Disclosure rules 10.1.1.

So if a broker happens to pick up information which infers that a company is 90% down the track of doing a deal, and tells his clients.

That is a breach of NZX Continuous Disclosure Rule 10.1.1?

KMA

[gv1]

Next significant announcement which will definitely lift sp is expected before 20th December - nice Christmas pressy from NZX. :)

That's what I am told.
Thanks mate for sharing.

[zymwh]

Balance, thank you for sharing this! Maybe I shall start using brokers next year...

DISC: A holder/continuous buyer from 40c

[MAC]

Look, PEB have told us they are targeting Medicare and Medicaid, Veterans association, and healthcare providers such as Kaiser Permanente, Intermountain, and that negotiations could take 12 months.

Just relax, these announcements could come at any frequency and at any time, no one, even a cleaver broker is going to get a prediction on the timing right.

Xmas makes for a good milestone for companies, but contracts are only signed on the day both parties agree to sign.

Anyone who’s ever tried to get a board meeting scheduled for approvals knows it’s like herding cats too, good luck with that right before xmas

[blobbles]

Please send to FMA.

Love for them to investigate the NZX properly.

I am not tipping anything 'hot' which any broker in the land who keeps an eye on the market will be able to try and predict.

This is the problem with some of you who have no idea how the market works - next time i will keep the predictive infor potential to myself.

Looking forward to interacting with the FMA, and for them to investigate how the NZX got a clean pass from FMA after the NZX shut out half the investors out there from sensitive market infor and depth.

While you are at it, send this to the FMA as well :

http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?1501-Guinness-Peat-Group-Plc-(GPG)/page219&highlight=gpg

FMA will be keen to investigate how I tipped GPG would hit 60c.

:D

So you are saying that the information is based on a prediction, not based on fact/tips/whatever?

If so, you could have disabused other posters of the notion that it is ONLY A GUESS based on some analysis by a broker, i.e. it is not based on solid information as many have assumed or looking back, it appears to suggest.

I would have hoped people could be open with people who "don't know how the market works". Otherwise it will become an old boys club where only those "in the know" can make money from it, instead of a clean/open/transparent marketplace. Hopefully we are all after the latter where ordinary people doing research and supporting new/growing companies can make money instead of the former where you have to know someone who knows someone and relies on shoulder tapping to make money, not analysis.

[couta1]

No - I mostly exited at an average of around $2.10, or $2.25 if including the dividend a couple of months prior.

Clearly there are risks around all listed companies in the current regulatory environment. It is big failing of the NZ political environment that a mixture of ComCom rapaciousness, weak government and an opposition that believes in scorched earth that infrastructure and energy companies in NZ should not be touched with barge poles. Terribly sad for NZ.

Sorry for the divergence from PEB. Back to molecular biosciences and the PEB opportunity....
Thanks Sparky,I figured as much based on your silence on the company, I guess you took a reasonable hit as well

[Balance]

So you are saying that the information is based on a prediction, not based on fact/tips/whatever?

If so, you could have disabused other posters of the notion that it is ONLY A GUESS based on some analysis by a broker, i.e. it is not based on solid information as many have assumed or looking back, it appears to suggest.

I would have hoped people could be open with people who "don't know how the market works". Otherwise it will become an old boys club where only those "in the know" can make money from it, instead of a clean/open/transparent marketplace. Hopefully we are all after the latter where ordinary people doing research and supporting new/growing companies can make money instead of the former where you have to know someone who knows someone and relies on shoulder tapping to make money, not analysis.

Any broker or poster would be nuts to post insider information here. So if I gave that impression, I will be more careful in future.

You are 100% correct re old boys club and investing though re NZX.

I am continuously appalled by how little the NZX does to protect the integrity of the market.

There appears to be several rules operating at the NZX and definitely one for the NZX where NZX treats itself as above any rules or regulations.

Best example is how the NZX system fell down this year so only selective market participants can view depth and market information - NZX kept the market open despite knowing that many investors will be severely disadvantaged. Then there's the situation with Mark Weldon selling shares but decided not to disclose information about the Clear Grain court case. NZX and Mark know better, see?

Then, there were all those collapsing finance companies - shares as well as capital notes, debentures etc - NZX was happy to rack in the fees but where were the price inquiries? Continuous disclosures?

And the FMA gives NZX the big thumbs up!

[geo]

Please send to FMA.

Love for them to investigate the NZX properly.

I am not tipping anything 'hot' which any broker in the land who keeps an eye on the market will be able to try and predict.

This is the problem with some of you who have no idea how the market works - next time i will keep the predictive infor potential to myself.

Looking forward to interacting with the FMA, and for them to investigate how the NZX got a clean pass from FMA after the NZX shut out half the investors out there from sensitive market infor and depth.

While you are at it, send this to the FMA as well :

http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?1501-Guinness-Peat-Group-Plc-(GPG)/page219&highlight=gpg

FMA will be keen to investigate how I tipped GPG would hit 60c.

:D
Dear Balance please keep your predictive to your self, but if I was to send you my email address and just keep me informed there would be a good drink in it for you??

[gv1]

Dear Balance please keep your predictive to your self, but if I was to send you my email address and just keep me informed there would be a good drink in it for you??
No way we would like some idiots to spoil it for us. Someone like Balance who would like to share it with us but there are some who are greedy and want to have it all by themselves.

[Citizen Erased]

Anyone else with ASB Securities and their additional shares purchased in the rights issue still not showing up in their portfolio? Will give them a call in the morning.

[Longhaul]

Anyone else with ASB Securities and their additional shares purchased in the rights issue still not showing up in their portfolio? Will give them a call in the morning.

Yes, same here.

[barney]

Some interesting comments regarding hiring the right talent, especially in the US.

http://talentnz.org/david-band

http://talentnz.org/dave-darling

[zymwh]

You probably need to manually add it to your exsiting portfolio. Login to link market services with your CSN and PIN to check how many shares you actually own.

[janner]

Yes, same here.

Don't sweat the small stuff..

Because that is all, most of us received.. It will appear soon enough !!.

[Wolf]

Anyone else with ASB Securities and their additional shares purchased in the rights issue still not showing up in their portfolio? Will give them a call in the morning.

Manually add them?? I think i remember them telling me i would have to. Look on you linkedmarketservices account or what ever to see how many you hold and update yourself??

[777]

I think there is a problem here on the difference between brokers and share Registries.

[Bobcat.]

Look, PEB have told us they are targeting Medicare and Medicaid, Veterans association, and healthcare providers such as Kaiser Permanente, Intermountain, and that negotiations could take 12 months.

Just relax, these announcements could come at any frequency and at any time, no one, even a cleaver broker is going to get a prediction on the timing right.

Xmas makes for a good milestone for companies, but contracts are only signed on the day both parties agree to sign.

Anyone who’s ever tried to get a board meeting scheduled for approvals knows it’s like herding cats too, good luck with that right before xmas

Anybody who has negotiated contracts of any significant complexity with parties with differing vested interests, especially across borders, would know that the date that these are signed can really never be accurately predicted until about the morning of the day they are signed!

Various and numerous drafts with specific clauses and sub-clauses marked up for further negotiation can go back and forth between many people (including lawyers) with other work and clients competing for their time before it gets anywhere near the signatories (and yes, last board meetings for the year are often no later than the 1st week of December, not the 3rd).

Besides, any fool who thinks he can have intimate knowledge about a contract negotiation process to the extent of being able to accurately pick the contract commencement date without being involved in that process has probably never been involved in such a process. He's dreaming.

BC

[percy]

PGC comes to mind...... so much money lost and the allocation of shares ... destruction of capital and now it seem Roger is somehow extracting millions from the wreckage and wanting listing on the london market ...

does anyone know the real fact on PGC and torchlight .......

in those days i didnt hit the sell button ... now it a regular event ....

Roger??? Roger Who?

[mcdongle]

Anyone else with ASB Securities and their additional shares purchased in the rights issue still not showing up in their portfolio? Will give them a call in the morning.

I added mine myself

[clip]

Yep added mine manually, can't get rid of the PEBRC shares though from ASB anyone got an idea? heh

[Minerbarejet]

Yep added mine manually, can't get rid of the PEBRC shares though from ASB anyone got an idea? heh
Tick the box and delete

[clip]

Yeah the delete option doesn't become available/clickable when I tick the box. wierd

[Minerbarejet]

Yeah the delete option doesn't become available/clickable when I tick the box. wierd
Is it in your automated portfolio? Cant get them out of there I dont think unless Asb can do it

[Xerof]

Roger??? Roger Who?

LOL

Roger Kerr, of course! His middle name must be George.....

[VinPetrol]

Yep added mine manually, can't get rid of the PEBRC shares though from ASB anyone got an idea? heh

In your Automated Portfolio, go 'View' just below the 'Total Cost' window. This should take you to the 'Transaction View', enter the PEBRC ticker and from there you can delete individual transaction entries.

[clip]

^That's done it thanks


How come you guys use ASB? Seems to be quite glitchy with reoccurring issues. Why not switch to Direct Broking? No such issues over there.

Have downloaded the db application form but not had a chance to do it as yet. In terms of simple buying and selling ASB fulfills those needs, even though DB may do it better and have better graphs/depth viewing etc I think

[Harvey Specter]

How come you guys use ASB? Seems to be quite glitchy with reoccurring issues. Why not switch to Direct Broking? No such issues over there.I manage my portfolio in Sharesight so dont rely on ASB version.

Having said that, I am in the process of opening a DB account so will be interesting to compare.

[Bobcat.]

^
Have downloaded the db application form but not had a chance to do it as yet. In terms of simple buying and selling ASB fulfills those needs, even though DB may do it better and have better graphs/depth viewing etc I think

DB also has multi currency accounts whereas ASB/CBA only have a foreign account facility. If you ever trade off shore, they will cream you using wide spreads for FOREX conversions on each trade. Phone DB's accounts (option 3) on 0800 805777 for more info.

[percy]

LOL

Roger Kerr, of course! His middle name must be George.....

Not so,GCD Kerr has no Roger in his name.
One Roger Kerr is dead,while the other is with PWC.!!??
Maybe he was thinking PGC shareholders were ROGERED?

[Xerof]

Not so,GCD Kerr has no Roger in his name.
One Roger Kerr is dead,while the other is with PWC.!!??
Maybe he was thinking PGC shareholders were ROGERED?yeah, I was just attempting to give him guidance on which Kerr he was meaning. And yes, Subliminal thoughts perhaps were appropriate

[skid]

LOL

Roger Kerr, of course! His middle name must be George.....

We all thought it was Roger Rabbit

[geo]

Anyone else with ASB Securities and their additional shares purchased in the rights issue still not showing up in their portfolio? Will give them a call in the morning.

You have to load your allotment manually into your portfolio it takes about a minute, they will talk it through with you.

[croesus]

Balance's sharebroker, may well be right... just say I am expecting a little spike...

Buys building.

[croesus]

Was 127 to buy, now 130.... wonder whats up ?

[Xerof]

Or Balance's info has been given credibility by readers of S/T

[Harvey Specter]

all $400k worth suddenly dumped on market? thats a lot to be playing on a hunch...ha? I only have turnover at $164k (ASB) has there been an offmarket cross?

[croesus]

Now in the Green... $1.30 nibbled

[Bobcat.]

There's still plenty of selling at 130c. Buyers cannot penetrate and haven't been able to do so for the past week.

Not buying yet...

[Ginger_steps_]

Now in the Green... $1.30 nibbled

Twas me at 1.30 - Ive been a wreck waiting to top up and hoping the next announcement didnt come before I did. May not have been the right price but hey in in for the long haul and its nice to have that weight off my shoulders!

[geo]

No way we would like some idiots to spoil it for us. Someone like Balance who would like to share it with us but there are some who are greedy and want to have it all by themselves.

That was my feeble attempt at humour obviously went over your head.

[Balance]

Or Balance's info has been given credibility by readers of S/T

Don't think so.

Just a grumpy old bugger (according to some) who lost his marbles over the incompetence of the directors and management of NZOG and the hypocrisy by many over the Springbok tour, who woke up one morning and decided to have a bit of fun.

Gets a bit tiresome after a while talking to the budgie while having my oats porridge.

:D

[Balance]

Was 127 to buy, now 130.... wonder whats up ?

Interesting market dynamics.

Why pay up when there are obviously plenty of sellers around at $1.30?

Unless ....

[Minerbarejet]

Seems familiar, its the same carryon that was going on at .50 plateau. We have obviously moved up a level.
Wonder where the next one is?

[zymwh]

Oh come on.... unless what? Some one had said it might not be a sale contract...so unless for a takeover offer??

[Balance]

Oh come on.... unless what? Some one had said it might not be a sale contract...so unless for a takeover offer??

Unless there is good news pending?

Or just some naive inexperienced newie paying up?

[Minerbarejet]

Oh come on.... unless what? Some one had said it might not be a sale contract...so unless for a takeover offer??
Pardon my innocence on these matters but surely anyone interested in taking over would want some serious sales data.
So far we have been privy to 3 sales in the US- hardly takeover material unless there is information that the shareholders haven't been given and others have. The way PEB management play things very close to the chest that would seem extremely unlikely. So all the innuendos about , unless, someone said, so I 've been told, etc really aren't a lot of help. Please feel free to go na na ne na na if I am wrong.:):):(:):)

[Harvey Specter]

Pardon my innocence on these matters but surely anyone interested in taking over would want some serious sales data.NOt necessarily. A large pharmaceutical company might consider its existing sales and distributions channels are much greater than PEB, and as such, would be willing to purchase the technology once proved to be successful (which it has).

[Balance]

My understanding of the pharma sector is takeovers before sales is the most common type. Granted this is usually for companies in early phases of drug development but I see no reason why the same kind of takeover would not be out of the question for PEB. This is my understanding from talking to those involved in the pharma sector in major companies in NJ.

I know for a fact that PEB is concerned about such an event.

[Minerbarejet]

I'll keep an eye on substantial holding disclosures then and see what happens.

[jonu]

Well, well. Balance lets drop with a little innuendo (frankly Benny Hill was more subtle), the price is up 1c and the thread is alight with takeover talk. Must be a slow day (yawns)

[Balance]

I'll keep an eye on substantial holding disclosures then and see what happens.

Be a long time between drinks, Minerbarejet, given the number (smallish) of shares bought!

I just find it fascinating still though why someone would pay up to $1.30 when it's clear there are sellers around?

Reminds me of when PEB was 51c and 52c - buyers kept stepping up and taking stock when it was clear there were sellers around.

The big seller then was Harbour.

We know what happened after that!

[Minerbarejet]

Be a long time between drinks, Minerbarejet, given the number (smallish) of shares bought!

I just find it fascinating still though why someone would pay up to $1.30 when it's clear there are sellers around?

Reminds me of when PEB was 51c and 52c - buyers kept stepping up and taking stock when it was clear there were sellers around.

The big seller then was Harbour.

We know what happened after that!
Precisely. Thats what I was trying to articulate at post 5475. Unfortunately I'm not very good at it. Deja vu anyone?

[Balance]

Precisely. Thats what I was trying to articulate at post 5475. Unfortunately I'm not very good at it. Deja vu anyone?

We are on the same page.

Pity newies like Jonu does not read properly and obtain some learnings imho.

[Minerbarejet]

History never repeats, repeats, repeats, repeats...

does it...?yes - on groundhog day Feb 2

[jonu]

We are on the same page.

Pity newies like Jonu does not read properly and obtain some learnings imho.

The humility of your humble opinion is duly noted. I thought about mentioning the grammar, but decided against it.:)

[Balance]

The humility of your humble opinion is duly noted. I thought about mentioning the grammar, but decided against it.:)

You can.

Cheers!

:)

[Minerbarejet]

I will make sure you are with me and Bill Murray that day Miner so that we can dine on slow roasted Punxsutawney Pat while PEB announces Medicaid ;)
If PEB announces it loud enough in Hershey we could just about hear it in Punxsutawney - its not that far away by states standards.

Another thing that came to light
Like a moth flying around in the middle of the night
If you're on the right page it's a really good look
It will be even better if you read the same book
:)

[karen1]

Any refunds from rights issue are in bank accounts today.

[Minerbarejet]

Any refunds from rights issue are in bank accounts today.
Great, - big spike in the share price today then?

[karen1]

Great, - big spike in the share price today then?

We wish! Happy where it's at though, has held up well over last few weeks. Wish all my co's were as well managed/dedicated as this beauty.

[NZSilver]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/national/health-science/about-365000-people-chose-health-plans-in-first-two-months-of-insurance-marketplace/2013/12/11/550f197a-61ee-11e3-8beb-3f9a9942850f_story.html