PEB - Pacific Edge Ltd

[NZSilver]

Holding solid at 1.27-1.30, with plenty on the buy side. Topped up at 1.27 this morning, couldn't resist. Just a waiting game, and seems after catching up on the thread there is a bit of chatter about a takover/someone buying up.

[croesus]

Have followed Long John Silvers, footsteps... decided the risk of being out of the tent.. is to high.

Not topped up... but insurance if good news come bounding out of the mist..

chin.

You have the Ginga one Moose... I knew one once..... mad as a chook. ,almost turned me gay...( genteel shudder )

[Bilbo]

Holding solid at 1.27-1.30, with plenty on the buy side. Topped up at 1.27 this morning, couldn't resist. Just a waiting game, and seems after catching up on the thread there is a bit of chatter about a takover/someone buying up.

Have done the same and topped up at 1.27 spending my rights refund and some more. Think it will trend lower but felt the risk of missing out on a significant announcement was too great to not buy more. Only time will tell :)

[Huskeez]

Already have one (not naturally ginger). ;)


Have followed Long John Silvers, footsteps... decided the risk of being out of the tent.. is to high.

Not topped up... but insurance if good news come bounding out of the mist..

chin.

You have the Ginga one Moose... I knew one once..... mad as a chook. ,almost turned me gay...( genteel shudder )

..........haha i just had to

[Ginger_steps_]

Go the gingers! Go PEB!

[Minerbarejet]

*buys miner another drink, one with an umbrella in it this time, and asks him if hes dug up anymore good nuggets in his cave*Thanks Moosie, but whats with the umbrella, - is it supposed to rain? Still on de fence but havent dug up any nuggets in the post holes. Thought I had there for a minute but it was only an old railway spike. Rang kiwirail but they didnt want it. Took a few more PEB under my wing with the refund money - never know your luck eh moosie

[NZSilver]

It is strange the small <1000 portions of shares being traded - could someone explain why this may be occurring (without the word ginger haha)

[croesus]

Hav.nt received my refund yet...... Maybe in the mail box tomorrow... or is it electronically credited ?

Would expect more buying tomorrow... as peeps receive their refund..

Seems a slow day.. the first buyer in the $1.26 c que must be getting angsty... wondering if his order is filled before the upcoming very near,
just round the corner, imminent announcement

[Minerbarejet]

It is strange the small <1000 portions of shares being traded - could someone explain why this may be occurring (without the word ginger haha)
Its possibly an algorithmic gingerbotman accumulating quietly and gingerly so as not to scare the punters or a neutered ginger turtle with gingivitis:)

Sorry -red rag to a bull

Noah fence

[barney]

Am currently reading the Wikipedia article Algorithmic Trading. very insightful, have a look (might not apply here; certainly is for DIL though!).

*Wonders if Balance has been snatched by the thought poloce to spend eternity with BE in a deep dark hole...*

I wonder if Balance will get a mention in the NBR like BE did ?

[NZSilver]

Its possibly an algorithmic gingerbotman accumulating quietly and gingerly so as not to scare the punters or a neutered ginger turtle with gingivitis:)

Sorry -red rag to a bull

Noah fence

haha ha I new my comment would entice someone!

[Minerbarejet]

Hav.nt received my refund yet...... Maybe in the mail box tomorrow... or is it electronically credited ?

Would expect more buying tomorrow... as peeps receive their refund..

Seems a slow day.. the first buyer in the $1.26 c que must be getting angsty... wondering if his order is filled before the upcoming very near,
just round the corner, imminent announcement
You hope!
Presumably you would get your money back the same way you sent it in dcr v dcr, chq v chq.
Yes they have been sitting there a while at 1.25 and 1.26 - note there are twice as many buyers as sellers so good support.
Actually I wonder if we will see much action from now on- getting close to Christmas and all that.

[Xerof]

You hope!
Presumably you would get your money back the same way you sent it in dcr v dcr, chq v chq.
Yes they have been sitting there a while at 1.25 and 1.26 - note there are twice as many buyers as sellers so good support.
Actually I wonder if we will see much action from now on- getting close to Christmas and all that. don't be conned by the depth, the seller just reloads 25 to 50 k as soon as the in play offer is near exhausted. Has been doing it for a few weeks now.

[Balance]

don't be conned by the depth, the seller just reloads 25 to 50 k as soon as the in play offer is near exhausted. Has been doing it for a few weeks now.

Exactly.

So why do the buyers keep paying up????

[Minerbarejet]

200,000 shares traded within a 3 cent range today and for the past week and a half. Someone is definitely keen and they are also reloading when bids get taken down. huge support/rwsistance level.

*buys another drink and heads over to the table holding Sparky, Miner and a fellow in a white full sleeve jacket...*
OMG - its Humphrey Bogart

What a weird week with it sitting there bouncing up and down. Who is selling - but whats probably more to the point - who is buying?

[Xerof]

Exactly.

So why do the buyers keep paying up????

I'm on your side Balance

[Minerbarejet]

The usual characters; random Canadian immigrants, a Clown with a penchant for arson and a Miner who lives in a cave out the back of the Canadian immigrants place.

Normal week, nothing to see here, move on please and keep calm :)
Well, glad we got that sorted. You must have a huge backyard though.

Balance, I no understand . Buyer he pay up if he want share, he pay up if he think share worth more than now.
Eventually share seller run out. Plice doubles. Share seller then kick himself on bum for being stupid. Buyer later become seller when price doubles. Big smiles from buyer, sore bum for seller.
When price halves big smiles from seller, sore bum for buyer. :)

[janner]

OMG - its Humphrey Bogart

What a weird week with it sitting there bouncing up and down. Who is selling - but whats probably more to the point - who is buying?

Is it going to be ... Here's looking at you kid !!..

Or .

Play it again Sam !!..

[Minerbarejet]

Is it going to be ... Here's looking at you kid !!..

Or .

Play it again Sam !!..hopefully the latter

[janner]

Will be ..Imho..

Disc.. Buying.

[False Profit]

Is it going to be ... Here's looking at you kid !!..

Or .

Play it again Sam !!..

I don't want to be a know-it-all-Nelly but you do realize that Humph never actually said "Play it again Sam" in Casablanca or any other movie?

Go PEB AWOOGAH!!!!

[Leftfield]

I don't want to be a know-it-all-Nelly but you do realize that Humph never actually said "Play it again Sam" in Casablanca or any other movie?

How about - "Go ahead make my day!" ;) ???

[Minerbarejet]

How about - "Go ahead make my day!" ;) ???Or " quite frankly, my dear, I dont give a damn!" Shock, Horror, OMG, etc
The immortal lines we would like to hear are "Pacific Edge is pleased to announce ------------.":)

[False Profit]

Or " quite frankly, my dear, I dont give a damn!" Shock, Horror, OMG, etc
The immortal lines we would like to hear are "Pacific Edge is pleased to announce ------------.":)

Actually, Clark Gable DID say that in "Gone With The Wind" - Best movie ever made. I will now shut up.

[Merc]

Actually, Clark Gable DID say that in "Gone With The Wind" - Best movie ever made. I will now shut up.

The best ever movie ever made was "The Gods Must Be Crazy"

[Longhaul]

Anyone else still waiting for their refund? Paid online, assume it will come back to me that way but no sign of it yet.

[Balance]

Anyone else still waiting for their refund? Paid online, assume it will come back to me that way but no sign of it yet.

refunded two days ago.

u better check.

[Minerbarejet]

Anyone else still waiting for their refund? Paid online, assume it will come back to me that way but no sign of it yet.
Maybe they pay out in the same order they came in. Did you apply late?

[baller18]

Hmmm, bidders keep coming in at 1.27, waiting for the seller to fulfil their order..

[zymwh]

I am still waiting for the refund.

[cheda213]

me to. But I did apply late, only 2 days before the offer closed.

[cheda213]

Not sure if this will help, but check the account you have registered with Link. E.g. my repayment did not go to the account I paid my money to Link from (it went to a different account, the account I have registered with link for dividend payments). If you haven't got a bank account registered with link then I suspect you'll get a check in the mail.

Got it:t_up:

[Longhaul]

Not sure if this will help, but check the account you have registered with Link. E.g. my repayment did not go to the account I paid my money to Link from (it went to a different account, the account I have registered with link for dividend payments). If you haven't got a bank account registered with link then I suspect you'll get a check in the mail.

Thanks, I haven't registered an account with Link. Will look into that now.

[Dentie]

Not sure if this will help, but check the account you have registered with Link. E.g. my repayment did not go to the account I paid my money to Link from (it went to a different account, the account I have registered with link for dividend payments). If you haven't got a bank account registered with link then I suspect you'll get a check in the mail.

This is correct. If you don't have a bank a/c registered with Link Market Services, they will send you a cheque.

[croesus]

Wouldn't be at all surprised to see a spike to $1.34

[NZSilver]

This thing is just holding so tight in the 1.27-1.29 range its amazing. It will be good to see how things move on the next price sensitive anncouncement...

[Balance]

[QUOTE=moosie_900;449381]up she goes. big buyer at $1.28. no sign of seller reloading...[/QU

Buyer testing depth of seller's commitment - looking for volume.

[jonu]

This is sounding awfully like the SNK thread. Just the decimal point is in the wrong place

[baller18]

Wonder if the seller has stopped for now... Or waiting for the bell then dumping it...
Interesting market dynamics.. lol

[warthog]

Wouldn't be at all surprised to see a spike to $1.34

Wouldn't be surprised if PEB went up, down, or held steady.

Weather today mainly fine. Could get cloudy. Might rain. Or not. Looking good for the weekend unless it gets worse.

ASB: interest rates going up. Maybe. ANZ: can't see a rise in next 12 months, unless things change. Westpac: we're in a dynamic environment, so swap rates may fluctuate.

Honestly croesus, your jawboning of PEB is weird. If you have a reason for your claims then let's have it. Otherwise, why make a fool of yourself?

[NZSilver]

Wouldn't be surprised if PEB went up, down, or held steady.

Weather today mainly fine. Could get cloudy. Might rain. Or not. Looking good for the weekend unless it gets worse.

ASB: interest rates going up. Maybe. ANZ: can't see a rise in next 12 months, unless things change. Westpac: we're in a dynamic environment, so swap rates may fluctuate.

Honestly croesus, your jawboning of PEB is weird. If you have a reason for your claims then let's have it. Otherwise, why make a fool of yourself?

Haha a very good point put forward in a very good way! We never know what the future will bring, if we did we would all be very rich!

[Copper]

Think I will take the middle ground on this.
Based on PTs assessment of .78 cents and the 1.75 peak then we are left at the 1.25 -1.30 range.
Omg, no it cant be:)

Just a random post 14 November ....we have travelled a long way and had an odd issue.We aintmoved far.

[Xerof]

Just a random post 14 November ....we have travelled a long way and had an odd issue.We aintmoved far.

yes, it's like a changing of the guard at the Palace, lots of activity, stomping of feet, marching up n down in a confined area, as the responsibility (for protection of valuable PEB shares) is passed over.

looked as though the seller was running out until the auction, so bought a few more at the close.

At ease......

[Copper]

[QUOTE=Xerof;449458]yes, it's like a changing of the guard at the Palace, lots of activity, stomping of feet, marching up n down in a confined area, as the responsibility (for protection of valuable PEB shares) is passed over.

looked as though the seller was running out until the auction, so bought a few more at the close.

I have to admit that your post together with that of Warthog , gave me the most amusement (and hope) that the world does not revolve around the share price of PEB,or SNK or GEO as we haven't the foggiest clue what will happen next week.

[skid]

Thats just condensation on your crystal ball copper:):)

[Copper]

Thats just condensation on your crystal ball copper:):)

Well observed Skid.Took your advice and went and bought some glass cleaner and some Damp Rid .Should do the trick.Instructions say that results should start to appear in 48 hours.
All the best .tks Copper.

[Harvey Specter]

Unfortunately we will have to wait until March at the earliest. :)By March, it will be worth more than CNU, and when you account for free float, it already ranks above MET,MHI, NZR for inclusion in the index.

[croesus]

Up 2c to $1.30...

[Nigel]

Up 2c to $1.30...

I'm so excited. This is the week when we find out if the mysterious post about the mysterious comment made by the mysterious broker comes true!

[croesus]

Likewise.... was it Balance who had the good oil.... I can't remember...

[croesus]

Well currently only 85000 approx available up to $1.40

Balance may well be right..... another signing would be great...what say you Balance, any more gossip from your Broker ?

[Balance]

Well currently only 85000 approx available up to $1.40

Balance may well be right..... another signing would be great...what say you Balance, any more gossip from your Broker ?

Right or wrong, be last time I post any comment of such a nature.

Too many traders looking to trade the news.

Take a leaf from Buffett and focus on whether you are prepared to be in the stock if the market shuts down for 3 years.

[Theracay]

Is it just me, or is it a bit suspicious that Brighton Early suddenly resurfaces when another hot tip is on the boards.

[croesus]

Right or wrong, be last time I post any comment of such a nature.

Too many traders looking to trade the news.

Take a leaf from Buffett and focus on whether you are prepared to be in the stock if the market shuts down for 3 years.

Well. A. It is a Sharetraders site.

B, You started the scuttlebutt.

[777]

And c, he is never wrong. IHHO.

[Balance]

Well. A. It is a Sharetraders site.

B, You started the scuttlebutt.

Fair enough but is PEB a stock to hold or a traders' stock?

Ain't no scuttlebutt, Croesus. Definition of scuttlebutt = gossip or rumor, usually with no substance whatsoever.

Those of us who have invested and added onto our holdings do see a huge potential and some like Hancocks willingly and diligently share information.

I sense Hancocks is probably starting to feel a bit jaded in recent days?

[Harvey Specter]

Fair enough but is PEB a stock to hold or a traders' stock? Why cant it be both depending on what the respective investors criteria is.

Disc: currently holding as a long term investor.

[croesus]

Well I think its both, its volatile enough.

Hancocks is a gem, I agree.

Pleased its not scuttlebutt.

Not meaning to wind you, quiet day..." devil makes work etc.

Best Regards

[Balance]

Well I think its both, its volatile enough.

Hancocks is a gem, I agree.

Pleased its not scuttlebutt.

Not meaning to wind you, quiet day..." devil makes work etc.

Best Regards

All good, croesus.

It is in all our interests to get this stock right, investor or traders.

[croesus]

Been out... still ticking along... I am not a chartist... but suggest peeps look at the 3 month candle stick chart ... if symmetry is a factor, were about due for another of those rocket ship take offs.

Read into it what you will

[Minerbarejet]

I'm so excited. This is the week when we find out if the mysterious post about the mysterious comment made by the mysterious broker comes true!
It may very well remain a mystery. I will be even more mystified if the mystery poster claims to have told us so. How does that song go?
Ah, sweet mystery of life at last I've found you.:)

[MAC]

Fair enough but is PEB a stock to hold or a traders' stock?

Ain't no scuttlebutt, Croesus. Definition of scuttlebutt = gossip or rumor, usually with no substance whatsoever.

Those of us who have invested and added onto our holdings do see a huge potential and some like Hancocks willingly and diligently share information.

I sense Hancocks is probably starting to feel a bit jaded in recent days?

I can imagine it may be a little frustrating for some like Hancock’s who have invested an enormous amount of time in research and belief in a company over years, and have been generous enough to share it with us all, only to have the stock knockers come out when the company shows commercial promise, knockers motivated only by very short term self interest in a futile and wasteful attempt to run the company down.

Thank you to Hancock’s and the other dedicated researchers on this forum.

[Copper]

I can imagine it may be a little frustrating for some like Hancock’s who have invested an enormous amount of time in research and belief in a company over years, and have been generous enough to share it with us all, only to have the stock knockers come out when the company shows commercial promise, knockers motivated only by very short term self interest in a futile and wasteful attempt to run the company down.

Thank you to Hancock’s and the other dedicated researchers on this forum.

On a lighter note Hancocks ,what happened to the Orchestra you were playing with.It was a great group but kept going AWOL until it finally disappeared unfortunately.

[Copper]

Hi Copper, well it amused me for a while; then I thought it’s not really conducive of open discussion so changed the text. However, I’m sure the band plays on!

It surely will.Not many will be privy to your connection to the orchestra but you have gone up a few octaves in my estimation......Merry Xmas.......

[janner]

It surely will.Not many will be privy to your connection to the orchestra but you have gone up a few octaves in my estimation......Merry Xmas.......

Hopefully there will be no QUAVER !!.. :-)

[Casino]

So, what are the positive news that could be of interest?

US insurance coverage? - too soon
NZX50? - too soon
take-over bid? - we would have seen higher volumes
commercial collaboration to commercialize biomarkers? - not impossible
additional license agreements similar to Oryzon/commercial progress in Europe? - maybe
something product/development related? - maybe
additional district health boards using CXbladder? - Balance?

[Harvey Specter]

additional district health boards using CXbladder? - Balance?Maybe Balance bought tests for his whole family so it at least doubles the three sales they had in the US. :t_up:

[Balance]

Maybe Balance bought tests for his whole family so it at least doubles the three sales they had in the US. :t_up:

Haha ..good one!

I replied by PM to one poster who asked me, the basis for my infor, for the record and will leave it at that.

[Casino]

you might get a lot of PMs now :)

[Balance]

you might get a lot of PMs now :)

No point as I only gave the basis for my infor.

Once bitten, twice very shy.

[Bobcat.]

ouch, someone just took a dump @ 1.26. See if our buyer remains strong.

4th of Dec saw the sp bounce off 125c. If that holds then it's good for current holders. If not, PEB could drop further to test stronger November support at 120c, especially if this week's USA FOMC meeting has a negative impact on Equity markets.

I was tempted yesterday to buy into this stock again when it breached 130 but as it turns out that was a false positive, and so I'm glad I waited. Next bust through 130 is IMO more likely to be a true positive.

Watching this one closely for a rising RSI and increased volume (up slightly today at 260k but would need to get to >500k to get me interested).

BC

[Balance]

ouch, someone just took a dump @ 1.26. See if our buyer remains strong.

150,000 ain't no big dump in my books.

Would be more worried about Snakes if I were you.

Big dump coming up there?

[Balance]

Dont worry about me Mr Balance, im all set for the next few months. think you should worry more about your rep on here should your forecast not come through than what I do/don't hold ;)

Why? Because traders are not going to make a few dollars?

:D

[Nigel]

What you say and do can last a lifetime. Plenty of eyes watching, especially you now that you're in the spotlight ;)

In Balance's defence, he passed on (or made references to) something his broker said. Whether the big announcement (?) is made this week or not, reflects more on the un-named broker than on Balance. Just another point of view.

Basing your buy/sell decisions on a hot tip from an un-identified broker via an equally-mysterious pseudonym on a share forum probably isn't the soundest investment approach in any case.

[winner69]

In Balance's defence, he passed on (or made references to) something his broker said. Whether the big announcement (?) is made this week or not, reflects more on the un-named broker than on Balance. Just another point of view.

Basing your buy/sell decisions on a hot tip from an un-identified broker via an equally-mysterious pseudonym on a share forum probably isn't the soundest investment approach in any case.

nigel .... where there's smoke there's fire as they say

Some would hate to miss out eh .... could go up another 30% after the announcement

[jonu]

nigel .... where there's smoke there's fire as they say

Some would hate to miss out eh .... could go up another 30% after the announcement

Or in this case, where there's smoke there's Balance

[Dentie]

In Balance's defence, he passed on (or made references to) something his broker said. Whether the big announcement (?) is made this week or not, reflects more on the un-named broker than on Balance. Just another point of view.

Basing your buy/sell decisions on a hot tip from an un-identified broker via an equally-mysterious pseudonym on a share forum probably isn't the soundest investment approach in any case.

Perhaps a pertinent point to learn is whether Balance's broker owns PEB stock and, if so, how much?

One of the biggest tips I got from a (FB) broker was in 2009 when he advised me to buy into KIP as it was going to move upwards (it was at $1.10). Being just a newbie back then I acceded to his advice. I cut my losses and sold out 12 months later at $1.05 and was really disappointed. He was right though....the price has finally soared up to $1.20 nearly 4 years later (for about a month) and is now back at $1.10.

Funny how and where we all learn our lessons....

[mrjeems]

Some would hate to miss out eh .... could go up another 30% after the announcement

Or drop off on Friday when speculators/traders waiting for an announcement lose hope. Everyones been holding this week.

[Whipmoney]

Or drop off on Friday when speculators/traders waiting for an announcement lose hope. Everyones been holding this week.

Possibly a correction as maybe the market is starting to realise that this thing has been propped up solely on hype.

[skid]

So what we are discussing here is whether his broker has inside information ?

[Whipmoney]

Still worth a hold for Medicaid in announcement in 2014. Im pretty surprised the sp has held up well after a 55 cent SPP AND a terrible sales report! Someone keeps gobbling up the sells, someone with very big pockets imho. this area has heavily consolidated now and wouldnt be surprised if she started sneaking up from here...

Medicaid/Medicare (CMS) announcement would be nice however its still just another announcement simplying confirming the insurers (American markets) appetite for this product but this doesn't automatically translate into sales as it still needs to be incorporated into their clinical pathway. As such the forward sales curve has been over-priced and therefore I think this stock is quite overvalued. A CMS announcement should see her shoot upwards though!

[baller18]

Medicaid/Medicare (CMS) announcement would be nice however its still just another announcement simplying confirming the insurers (American markets) appetite for this product but this doesn't automatically translate into sales as it still needs to be incorporated into their clinical pathway. As such the forward sales curve has been over-priced and therefore I think this stock is quite overvalued. A CMS announcement should see her shoot upwards though!
Why is it hype?
You say hype because it hasn't made any sales, however, sales are just getting started, PEB has done the hard yards.
Like MAC said, Hancocks has been more than generous to share his wealth of knowledge through years of research on PEB, yet you are saying its all hype? Please explain the 'hype' of it..
Your saying buyers piling up waiting for an announcement, so this would happen over and over again, makes no difference to holders though does it? ;)

[skid]

The research is not hype-the product is not hype---but the increase in SP could be hype.--It could be simply a situation of a good product valued at more than its worth at this time--sometimes the hype has more to do with investors,than the product.

[skid]

If its true and this stock is overvalued--then it is in good company --the worlds share markets are also overvalued IMHO

[Balance]

Perhaps a pertinent point to learn is whether Balance's broker owns PEB stock and, if so, how much?

One of the biggest tips I got from a (FB) broker was in 2009 when he advised me to buy into KIP as it was going to move upwards (it was at $1.10). Being just a newbie back then I acceded to his advice. I cut my losses and sold out 12 months later at $1.05 and was really disappointed. He was right though....the price has finally soared up to $1.20 nearly 4 years later (for about a month) and is now back at $1.10.

Funny how and where we all learn our lessons....

You make an important point, Dentie.

I have written this before and will write for the last time - like any profession, there are good brokers and bad brokers. In my time, I have dealt with brokers who were ex-insurance and ex-photocopier salesmen who knew nothing, except churn their clients for brokerage. I have met brokers who were front-runners - they bought, then sold to clients after recommending the same stocks to them.

Then, there are the really good professional ones who know their stuff and put their money where their mouth is - ie. invest in the stocks they recommend. Operative word - invest.

It is up to each individual who and how they want to deal with. I do not appreciate the insinuation about my broker being other than professional and knowledgeable.

Sigh - I can understand why Hancocks is rapidly losing patience.

[Mista_Trix]

You make an important point, Dentie.

I have written this before and will write for the last time - like any profession, there are good brokers and bad brokers. In my time, I have dealt with brokers who were ex-insurance and ex-photocopier salesmen who knew nothing, except churn their clients for brokerage. I have met brokers who were front-runners - they bought, then sold to clients after recommending the same stocks to them.

Then, there are the really good professional ones who know their stuff and put their money where their mouth is - ie. invest in the stocks they recommend. Operative word - invest.

It is up to each individual who and how they want to deal with. I do not appreciate the insinuation about my broker being other than professional and knowledgeable.

Sigh - I can understand why Hancocks is rapidly losing patience.

Ultimately its a forum so there will be noise and chatter between any one point and another.
Don't think we don't appreciate the input :)

Haters gunna hate, just leave them to it :-S

[Casino]

Medicaid/Medicare (CMS) announcement would be nice however its still just another announcement simplying confirming the insurers (American markets) appetite for this product but this doesn't automatically translate into sales as it still needs to be incorporated into their clinical pathway. As such the forward sales curve has been over-priced and therefore I think this stock is quite overvalued. A CMS announcement should see her shoot upwards though!

1. It would be neither just nor another.
2. Insurer's appetite?
3. CMS coverage is huge and clears the way for sales.

[Balance]

So what we are discussing here is whether his broker has inside information ?

That's what the traders are hoping?

Insider trading is a jail-able and criminal offense - tread carefully, cowboy!

[gv1]

You make an important point, Dentie.

I have written this before and will write for the last time - like any profession, there are good brokers and bad brokers. In my time, I have dealt with brokers who were ex-insurance and ex-photocopier salesmen who knew nothing, except churn their clients for brokerage. I have met brokers who were front-runners - they bought, then sold to clients after recommending the same stocks to them.

Then, there are the really good professional ones who know their stuff and put their money where their mouth is - ie. invest in the stocks they recommend. Operative word - invest.

It is up to each individual who and how they want to deal with. I do not appreciate the insinuation about my broker being other than professional and knowledgeable.

Sigh - I can understand why Hancocks is rapidly losing patience.

Don't worry buddy,they are just trying to siphon out who the broker is etc. We know what the stock is worth. Thank you again for sharing with us, it just confirms our faith in the stock.

[Whipmoney]

Why is it hype?
You say hype because it hasn't made any sales, however, sales are just getting started, PEB has done the hard yards.
Like MAC said, Hancocks has been more than generous to share his wealth of knowledge through years of research on PEB, yet you are saying its all hype? Please explain the 'hype' of it..
Your saying buyers piling up waiting for an announcement, so this would happen over and over again, makes no difference to holders though does it? ;)

I'm saying the price is share-price hyped, not the company, its product or its eventual product.

Yes its all relative to sales. The current price to sales ratio is over 2000x. At the current market cap of ~$404m the market is already pricing in roughly 6.6% market penetration of the total US market (based on standard metrics) despite the fact that they have only sold 3 tests to date.

Based on this I consider it over-valued.

PS: I'm aware of the great work that Hancocks and MAC have done. Credit to them both.

[Whipmoney]

The research is not hype-the product is not hype---but the increase in SP could be hype.--It could be simply a situation of a good product valued at more than its worth at this time--sometimes the hype has more to do with investors,than the product.

Exactly. Sales are priced well in ahead of their current trajectory.

[couta1]

Exactly. Sales are priced well in ahead of their current trajectory.
Value is whatever sum someone is prepared to pay at any given point in time regardless of whether that's actually what the product is worth or not,look at xro for a classic example

[Minerbarejet]

With the imminent revelation of Balances Pre Christmas blessing that has gone on for four pages perhaps we should have a look at a few facts.
A. Balance does not appear to be a sharebroker
B. Balance uses a sharebroker for his transactions.
C. His sharebroker owns shares in PEB
D. His sharebroker has made a predictive analysis based on his personal involvement.
E. Balance has accepted that it may occur
F. Balance has very kind heartedly tried to share his knowledge with us
G. Balance has been very careful not to jeopardise his relationship with his broker by saying too much.
H. Balance has boundaries he must work within and we must respect them
I. Balance has indicated that he may be unwilling to share predictive comments from outside sources in the future.
J. The predictive comment was that IF there is an announcement by the 20th Dec regarding PEB it SHOULD have an upward impact on the share price.
K. A sharebroker saying that is hardly dispersing inside knowledge.


Roll on PEB now or later
Merry Christmas everyone
And the most prosperous of New Years to you all
Cheers:)
Minerbarejet

[Whipmoney]

Value is whatever sum someone is prepared to pay at any given point in time regardless of whether that's actually what the product is worth or not,look at xro for a classic example

I believe what you have just stated above is essentially the definition for the "Great Fool Theory", i.e. where the Price of something has deviated from its instrinsic value and is primarily based on the expectations of irrational bidders.

I accept that everyone may have a differing notion of instrinsic value based on their cost of equity, risk tolerance etc however this company is going to need to achieve some massive growth targets in its trading revenue line (like circa 59,753% massive) in order to achieve 1% penetration in the US Market, at which point it would be lucky to break-even.

[blobbles]

Value is whatever sum someone is prepared to pay at any given point in time regardless of whether that's actually what the product is worth or not,look at xro for a classic example

Incorrect. You have confused "value" with "price", when you are talking about shares. The VALUE of a share is based on its fundamentals plus a rational expectation of its future value with risk built in - usually with a greater weighting towards the first measure, risk making the latter measure difficult to ascertain. However, PRICE is based on the agreed amount 2 people will exchange shares for (or you could call this "perceived value").

In PEBs case its fundamentals means it is worth a few cents. Its rational expectation of its future value is completely subjective and has one hell of a lot of risk to attain that value. Currently its price bears little resemblance to its actual value. Hence its share PRICE can be considered hugely overVALUED.

[Casino]

Whipmoney - the one lesson I learnt from Xero's phenomenal story is that while the investment wasn't right for me because I didn't understand it, I did not seek to deride it. Rather, I acknowledged I couldn't understand it but that it was clear there was a strategy the company was executing well on, was well funded and had great leadership. That meant a lot, though I wasn't holding the stock.

I think PEB will be "the next Xero" in terms of a huge growth story, and I believe it to be well funded, with great leadership, and executing well on its strategy. Having down significant homework in understanding the company, I'm pretty confident about its future success.

Can you please share your thoughts on the market response to signing agreements with PPOs? Based on what you know, do you think achieving these milestones added sudden and tremendous value to the company?

[Dentie]

You make an important point, Dentie.

Then, there are the really good professional ones who know their stuff and put their money where their mouth is - ie. invest in the stocks they recommend. Operative word - invest.

It is up to each individual who and how they want to deal with. [QUOTE]I do not appreciate the insinuation about my broker being other than professional and knowledgeable.

Balance, just for the record, I was not insinuating your broker may not be knowledgeable or professional. I had not managed to find a previous post of yours which confirmed whether or not your broker "invested" in the same stock they gave guidance on.

Other thread dwellers (traders?) appear to be getting nervous as your posted time line gets shorter & shorter - hence their directed comments towards your prediction based post. That's human nature I guess.

I gave my personal experience as a way of simply demonstrating to others that one should do their own research etc and then get into the stock based on that, rather than try and take the lazy (or uneducated) way and go for the "hot tip" given by a broker - no matter how knowledgeable they are, or whether their "hot tip" was correct or not.

Disc. I don't care one way or the other whether your broker is right or wrong. I've been in PEB for well over 4 years (based on my own input) and have added where possible. I believe in them and their story and won't be selling any time soon.

[Balance]

[QUOTE=Balance;450135]You make an important point, Dentie.

Then, there are the really good professional ones who know their stuff and put their money where their mouth is - ie. invest in the stocks they recommend. Operative word - invest.

It is up to each individual who and how they want to deal with.

Balance, just for the record, I was not insinuating your broker may not be knowledgeable or professional. I had not managed to find a previous post of yours which confirmed whether or not your broker "invested" in the same stock they gave guidance on.

Other thread dwellers (traders?) appear to be getting nervous as your posted time line gets shorter & shorter - hence their directed comments towards your prediction based post. That's human nature I guess.

I gave my personal experience as a way of simply demonstrating to others that one should do their own research etc and then get into the stock based on that, rather than try and take the lazy (or uneducated) way and go for the "hot tip" given by a broker - no matter how knowledgeable they are, or whether their "hot tip" was correct or not.

Disc. I don't care one way or the other whether your broker is right or wrong. I've been in PEB for well over 4 years (based on my own input) and have added where possible. I believe in them and their story and won't be selling any time soon.

All good, Dentie.

Traders will be traders, afraid of missing out but nervous as hell because they do not share the belief in PEB?

[Casino]

I think they do add significant value to the company, but not the kind of value that a "clinical pathway" agreement with someone like Intermountain (IM) or Kaiser Permanante (KP) would add to the share price.

The difference is this:

What PEB have done so far is get on the restaurant menu. Doctors and specialists can order the CxBladder solution, which means that their dish gets bought because it is at least, one of the dishes that can be ordered. You can't sell salmon unless salmon is on the menu.

But if a "clinical pathway" agreement gets signed up, then CxBladder is the ONLY dish on the menu, because the pathway says "thou must use CxBladder because we've trialled it and it works best in these cases". That's like saying "Feeling only a little hungry sir, don't worry, we'll bring you the salmon, best thing for you", and you eat it because its a great restaurant and the head waiter recommended it.

That guarantees its use, as opposed to merely being an option. One of the big HMOs like KP or IM are significant enough that should CxBladder get adopted into the clinical pathway, then others will follow. KP, because they are huge, and IM because they are apparently one of the best healthcare management organisations in the USA.

Sorry for the long-winded analogy, but I hope this helps illustrate a bit better what will truly motivate the PEB share price in time. What has happened so far is great, and has deservedly boosted the price. Who knows, maybe its a little overpriced, certainly it was when it touched $1.70 a couple of months ago. But I wouldn't be tempted to sell some shares at the current price, or even at $1.70. There's simply too much that can happen that can propel this stock to over $2.00 by the middle of next year, and $3.00 by the end of next year.

Disc: a very happy holder.


I think this stock is a fantastic play with a bright future but the market may got it right for the wrong reasons. I'm not complaining, just observing. The important good news will follow, I hope.

[silverblizzard888]

Agreed with SparkyTheClown, this is indeed a new dish on the menu and requires people to use it in order for it to do well, but given that this product makes things easier, is cheaper and provides better results there is good reason to believe it will be used. People tend to prefer the easy option and if you've known enough doctors like I have they definitely would be in delight to use the quickest and most effortless as long as their patients health is not compromised of course.

[MAC]

Some may choose not to accept the forward revenue advice and goals of PEB, some may choose to reduce their valuations due to their personal risk perceptions. Some like myself prefer to separate valuation from risk and in doing so apply more orthodox fundamental analysis and methods, each to their own.

All companies retain risk, particularly so startup companies in their initial growth stage. As the market incrementally gains belief in company objectives the market perception de-risks and the SP rises toward fundamental valuation.

We’ve seen a lot of de-risking in 2013 and we may anticipate more in 2014 and 2015. We don’t all have to agree with the markets perception of risk, some will perceive less risk, some will perceive more risk, each to their own.

Here’s where I’m at based on valuation inputs readily available to the market and to all the fundamental analysts out there in the world. These are de-risked valuations for the US Cxbladder(detect) revenue stream only.

Base Case (HY18 NZ$100M in revenues): FY14 $1.70
Late Case (FY18 NZ$100M in revenues): FY14 $1.40
Early Case (HY17 NZ$100M in revenues): FY14 $2.30

The recent $20.5M capital raising intended to accelerate the revenue curve in my view could be a game changer and at this point in time, based on PEB management’s record of achieving schedule milestones very well to date, I’m inclined to appreciate the possibility of revenues coming forward and the possibility of an 'Early Case' arising. There are risks, I’m watching cautiously and will be the first to correct such a view if I see a forward misalignment.

It would seem to me that the market has recently revalued PEB correctly and the SP right now is about where it should be based on FA and the amount of de-risking seen throughout 2013.

I would not be surprised to see PEB as a $5 stock in FY16 if they meet their objectives.

Recommendation: DYOR

Base Case Valuation Assumptions:

a) Orthodox DCF methodologies applied, WACC 10%, PG 6.5% beyond FY18.

b) Cxbladder(detect) revenue goal of HY18 NZ$100M, Ref: PEB 2013 capital raising cover letter, (note 1).

c) Gross margins (sales less COGS) of 81%, Ref: PEB Capital Raising to Deliver Cxbladder to the US, July 2011.

d) I’ve applied a similar Cxbladder revenue rate of growth to that of Harbour Asset Management: Ref Australasian Equities Monthly Commentary, 07 November 2013. http://www.harbourasset.co.nz/wp-content/uploads/2013/11/Harbour-October-2013-Equity-Commentary-website.pdf

e) The valuation includes revenues associated with US Cxbladder(detect) sales only, (note 2).

f) The US lab is rated at 4000 tests per week or the equivalent of US125M in revenues p.a. Therefore, no significant capital outlay is required for the US cxbladder(detect) revenue stream prior to HY19 on the Base Case schedule.

Note 1: There has been some contradiction from the media over the last six months suggesting the five year goal as being gross revenues of US$100M with the presumption that this represents (US$ sales less US$ COGS). More recently PEB have documented the goal within announcements and within the 2013 capital raising documentation as being sales of NZ$100M, conservatively I’ve elected to use the lower of the two, this being HY18 revenues of NZ$100M.

Note 2: Several further revenue streams are scheduled to commence in 2014 and 2015, however these in my view are yet to be quantified adequately enough to include within the valuation at this time. I'm hoping for further information to arise in 2014 that will allow the inclusion of the following revenue streams: Australian Cxbladder(detect), Spanish Cxbladder(detect), US Cxbladder(triage), US Cxbladder(predict). The inclusion of these revenue streams will further increase the valuation of PEB.

[barney]

They appear to have heard of it down south.

https://www.bcbsnc.com/content/services/medical-policy/updates/medical-policy-updates-2013-12-10.htm

[clip]

Description section updated to include new test "CxBladder." "CxBladder added to the "When not Covered" section.

Not entirely a bad thing I would think? Initially if not covered by insurance then CXBladder may be cheaper than cystoscopy/other tests so patients may be more likely to select when presented with options. As we get more insurers on-board this may change to covered whereby the hospitals/insurance companies may try to push it as it saves them money as well? win/win

[Dentie]

[QUOTE=Dentie;450185]

All good, Dentie.

Traders will be traders, afraid of missing out but nervous as hell because they do not share the belief in PEB?

Correct Balance. Traders need something to trade with. I expect they desire smooth price movements (in both directions) over, preferably, as shorter time period as possible. The money is made by either the velocity of the trades (for traders) or the ever increasing SP (for investors). I'm not sure PEB is a classic trader's stock at the moment - due to the jerkiness and unpredictability of the SP.

For PEB, in hindsight (of course), the good traders would have been out between $1.50 & $1.60 - after getting in at around $1.20. The "self named" traders who are still in at the moment are really only "tail chasers" ... or they could be investors but just don't know it? Or, they could be providing the liquidity for those that want to get out.

[Balance]

[QUOTE=Balance;450193]

Correct Balance. Traders need something to trade with. I expect they desire smooth price movements (in both directions) over, preferably, as shorter time period as possible. The money is made by either the velocity of the trades (for traders) or the ever increasing SP (for investors). I'm not sure PEB is a classic trader's stock at the moment - due to the jerkiness and unpredictability of the SP.

For PEB, in hindsight (of course), the good traders would have been out between $1.50 & $1.60 - after getting in at around $1.20. The "self named" traders who are still in at the moment are really only "tail chasers" ... or they could be investors but just don't know it? Or, they could be providing the liquidity for those that want to get out.

One does not sense any courage of conviction by the traders here. They are nervous as hell about a few cents movement.

[Whipmoney]

Here’s where I’m at based on valuation inputs readily available to the market and to all the fundamental analysts out there in the world. These are de-risked valuations for the US Cxbladder(detect) revenue stream only.

Base Case (HY18 NZ$100M in revenues): FY14 $1.70
Late Case (FY18 NZ$100M in revenues): FY14 $1.40
Early Case (HY17 NZ$100M in revenues): FY14 $2.30

The recent $20.5M capital raising intended to accelerate the revenue curve in my view could be a game changer and at this point in time, based on PEB management’s record of achieving schedule milestones very well to date, I’m inclined to appreciate the possibility of revenues coming forward and the possibility of an 'Early Case' arising. There are risks, I’m watching cautiously and will be the first to correct such a view if I see a forward misalignment.

Base Case Valuation Assumptions:

a) Orthodox DCF methodologies applied, WACC 10%, PG 6.5% beyond FY18.

b) Cxbladder(detect) revenue goal of HY18 NZ$100M, Ref: PEB 2013 capital raising cover letter, (note 1).

c) Gross margins (sales less COGS) of 81%, Ref: PEB Capital Raising to Deliver Cxbladder to the US, July 2011.

d) I’ve applied a similar Cxbladder revenue rate of growth to that of Harbour Asset Management: Ref Australasian Equities Monthly Commentary, 07 November 2013. http://www.harbourasset.co.nz/wp-content/uploads/2013/11/Harbour-October-2013-Equity-Commentary-website.pdf

e) The valuation includes revenues associated with US Cxbladder(detect) sales only, (note 2).

f) The US lab is rated at 4000 tests per week or the equivalent of US125M in revenues p.a. Therefore, no significant capital outlay is required for the US cxbladder(detect) revenue stream prior to HY19 on the Base Case schedule.

Hi MAC, firstly thanks for your contribution as always, its good to have healthy debate with those who know a heck of a lot more on this topic than myself.

I'm just curious but why would you use a long-run (terminal) growth figure of 6.50%? To me that seems overly agressive given that US population growth is circa 0.8% and that the world population growth is around 1.14% per annum are you suggesting that there is a circa 5.7% (annual) increase in the incidence of bladder cancer worldwide (i'm not criticising this i'm just ignorant on the actual BC statistics)?

Secondly, I presume you have used a terminal value out to perpetuity which is standard in DCF analysis but just wanted to question whether this is realistic or not? At a guess I would suspect at most this product is only likely to have a 20-25 year lifespan given the continual evolution in modern medicine. Foreseeably a better test will come along (maybe a better biomarker or whole new diagnostic technology) and as such its likely that a large of the Market Cap value you have calculated is built into the terminal value to perpetuity rather than simply discounting 20-25 years of expected sales.

[gv1]

Whipmoney - the one lesson I learnt from Xero's phenomenal story is that while the investment wasn't right for me because I didn't understand it, I did not seek to deride it. Rather, I acknowledged I couldn't understand it but that it was clear there was a strategy the company was executing well on, was well funded and had great leadership. That meant a lot, though I wasn't holding the stock.

I think PEB will be "the next Xero" in terms of a huge growth story, and I believe it to be well funded, with great leadership, and executing well on its strategy. Having down significant homework in understanding the company, I'm pretty confident about its future success.

Hi STC,
I couldn't agree more, a great company. Merry Christmas and happy New Year.

[Whipmoney]

Whipmoney - the one lesson I learnt from Xero's phenomenal story is that while the investment wasn't right for me because I didn't understand it, I did not seek to deride it. Rather, I acknowledged I couldn't understand it but that it was clear there was a strategy the company was executing well on, was well funded and had great leadership. That meant a lot, though I wasn't holding the stock.

I think PEB will be "the next Xero" in terms of a huge growth story, and I believe it to be well funded, with great leadership, and executing well on its strategy. Having down significant homework in understanding the company, I'm pretty confident about its future success.

Don't get me wrong, I think (and have said on multiple occasions) that PEB is a great company (and in all honesty I think it is a better investment than XERO) but don't equate my bearishness on the stock prices of both as a lack of understanding of their respective business strategies.

I get XERO's/Drury's business strategy and I believe I have a reasonable understanding of where David Darling is taking PEB. XERO has sales on the board, PEB has sold 3 units to date.

Putting XERO aside, what I don't get is why the market has priced PEB so far up its sales curve simply because it has had 3 announcements confirming it its now on the menu. When the market is already pricing a significant level of US penetration (at these prices) it slightly concerns me that when PEB announce their next sales report (which will likely show a few hundred units) that there will be a serious retracement as punters suddenly realise that these agreements don't necessarily equate to guaranteed sales.

That's just my view though and the odds are that i'm wrong as I was with Xero, as at the end of the day its the markets view that matters.

[Mista_Trix]

I take comfort by comparison.
Take XRO, DIL and PEB. Three very different styles of board and senior management. DIL have shown they don't know what they're doing, XRO massive personality, very optomistic, but how would he be if/when things do/did start going wrong. PEB, Darling seems to be a good mix of strategic thinker while also slowly getting greater market penetration, but not so pushy he wouldn't be able to mitigate his risks - which is a very real worry i have about XRO.

I like the style of this company, I believe in him, and if he believes its all going to task then that's fine for me, I like the way he operates, he seems calm and confident (but not cocky or over the top) in interviews.

I take my collection in this comparison.

[Whipmoney]

f The market is forward looking. VERY forward looking in this case!

Yeah with a Price/Trading Revenue (Unit Sales) ratio of 23,775x I believe you are right.

The market average for Biotech is 6.01x.

[Balance]

Yeah with a Price/Trading Revenue (Unit Sales) ratio of 23,775x I believe you are right.

The market average for Biotech is 6.01x.

So when PEB reaches US$100m in sales, it's worth art least US$6 billion?

Or NZ$23 per share.

Sparky the Clown could well be right - NZ's next Xero is right in front of those who care to look beyond the 2 to 3 cents price movements.

[MAC]

Hi Whipmoney, some FA's project out 25 to 30 years of estimated revenues then apply a PG of 3% or thereabouts commensurate with long term inflation and OCR. I tend to only estimate revenues out as far as I think I can practically and accurately see into the future then apply a PG from that point forward based on prospective medium term company growth prospects, calibrated also against the other 40 or so stocks I research.

So my PG may seem higher but please appreciate it's applied in this case from year 6 rather that year 25 or 30, trust that explains ok.

Agree that medium term growth, let’s say during years 5 to 15, is an unknown and PEB have pragmatically only projected 5 years out themselves, but there seems every possibility that this product could well keep growing beyond the five year goal of achieving 10% market share. Harbour seem think so and have projected revenue growth out to FY20. As you say the market for this sort of test will also grow over time.

[Bobcat.]

Really???
The market capitalization for the level of commercialization is actually a little light when comparing the Company to similar companies from the US and other similarly developed countries.
BE.

Can you be more precise, BE? Which 'similar' companies?

[Whipmoney]

Really???

This is what most of these posts tell me - the vast majority of NZ investors do not understand the opportunity. The market capitalization for the level of commercialization is actually a little light when comparing the Company to similar companies from the US and other similarly developed countries.

Are you questioning the 6.01x average for the Biotech sector? I would justify my source but then again I seem to remember a few black marks / retracted posts against your name...


It is people like you who provide the opportunity to get in at reasonable prices.

Well if it was you who bought my parcel for $1.40 then I should be thanking you.

[Whipmoney]

Hi Whipmoney, some FA's project out 25 to 30 years of estimated revenues then apply a PG of 3% or thereabouts commensurate with long term inflation and OCR. I tend to only estimate revenues out as far as I think I can practically and accurately see into the future then apply a PG from that point forward based on prospective medium term company growth prospects, calibrated also against the other 40 or so stocks I research.

So my PG may seem higher but please appreciate it's applied in this case from year 6 rather that year 25 or 30, trust that explains ok.

Agree that medium term growth, let’s say during years 5 to 15, is an unknown and PEB have pragmatically only projected 5 years out themselves, but there seems every possibility that this product could well keep growing beyond the five year goal of achieving 10% market share. Harbour seem think so and have projected revenue growth out to FY20. As you say the market for this sort of test will also grow over time.

Hi MAC, I understand your approach but the problem is you seem to be blending medium term growth into the terminal growth rate (at perpeuity). The problem with this is that if your terminal growth rate is higher than the cumulative (maximum) growth factors (e.g. price inflation, world population growth and increases in the incidence of bladder cancer) then at some point invariably your growth trajectory will surpass 100% penetration of not only bladder cancer sufferers/test patients but the entire world population as a whole, meaning you are pricing in way too many tests into revenue at the tail end. I hope this makes sense?

[Whipmoney]

Lol... love the attitude!

Yes, you're right that is an average.

Not sure if I bought them. I might of. :)

Source: Aswath Damodaran (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aswath_Damodaran)

http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~%20adamodar/New_Home_Page/datafile/psdata.html

Bit of a guru in dcf valuation..

[Balance]

There has been some really good debate over the last few pages, some have put a lot of effort into their posts and it is great to see good analysis for anyone curious on PEB.

I have been a staunch advocate for the past 10 years and at the moment of PEB as you may know and I appreciate knowledgeable argument from both sides. I agree with Whipmoney about the share price and I respect the opinions of those that believe PEB is not an investment that fits their criteria.

I’m really looking forward to the coming months with extreme anticipation and excitement (Woo Hoo) because recently the planets have really lined up for Pacific Edge and I believe the future is looking really great.

I’m sorry I cannot offer a share price projection and if I did it would be tantamount to the Drake Equation anyway; the share price has been really robust which has surprised me, however, I’m certainly not complaining at all and I’m quite happy to pause at $1.27 for a wee while.

(The Drake equation has proved controversial since several of its factors are currently unknown, and estimates of their values span a very wide range. This has led critics to label the equation a wild guesstimate, or even meaningless).

Hancocks, thank you for your patience and fortitude over the years.

I do seriously wonder many times how many posters on this thread appreciate the opportunity they have been given - to assess the company and decide to invest or not.

A company like PEB comes across our path once in a long while and your research, information and willingness to share have given all those who care to acknowledge their interest, objectivity (and ignorance) the opportunity to invest or not.

In my own discussions with various investors and medical practitioners, the term 'disruptive innovation' when describing PEB's product comes up often.

It is the considered opinion of the doctors I talked to that it will take time for Cxbladder to breakthrough the existing diagnostic practices but breakthrough it will.

PEB must be very pleased with the number of medical practitioners who are appearing in PEB's register.

[Casino]

So when PEB reaches US$100m in sales, it's worth art least US$6 billion?

Or NZ$23 per share.

Sparky the Clown could well be right - NZ's next Xero is right in front of those who care to look beyond the 2 to 3 cents price movements.

0.6 billion or $1.88 per share.

[Whipmoney]

0.6 billion or $1.88 per share.

Which is around 9% penetration in the US hence why I suggested the market is pricing around 6.6%.

EDIT: sorry this should be ~5.5% had forgot to convert to NZD.

[Harvey Specter]

So when PEB reaches US$100m in sales, it's worth art least US$6 billion? Are you sure that maths is right. $100m in sales at a 6.01x P/S ratio makes a market cap of $600m (current market cap is $400m).

[MAC]

Not quite so, earlier cash flows are discounted less within an NPV calculation, do have a play around in a spreadsheet with a few such options and all will become clear.

[Whipmoney]

Not quite so, earlier cash flows are discounted less within an NPV calculation, do have a play around in a spreadsheet with a few such options and all will become clear.

Yeah I get that but once you reach 100% penetration then your YoY growth is going to be a lot lower than 6.5%. As such its a lot more logical to forecast growth based on penetration out 20-30 years and then to build in a very lower perpetuity factor.

[Dentie]

Don't get me wrong, I think (and have said on multiple occasions) that PEB is a great company (and in all honesty I think it is a better investment than XERO) but don't equate my bearishness on the stock prices of both as a lack of understanding of their respective business strategies.

I get XERO's/Drury's business strategy and I believe I have a reasonable understanding of where David Darling is taking PEB. XERO has sales on the board, PEB has sold 3 units to date.

Putting XERO aside, what I don't get is why the market has priced PEB so far up its sales curve simply because it has had 3 announcements confirming it its now on the menu. When the market is already pricing a significant level of US penetration (at these prices) it slightly concerns me that when PEB announce their next sales report (which will likely show a few hundred units) that there will be a serious retracement as punters suddenly realise that these agreements don't necessarily equate to guaranteed sales.

That's just my view though and the odds are that i'm wrong as I was with Xero, as at the end of the day its the markets view that matters.

Whipmoney, given you sold out (or partly sold out?) at $1.40, why should you be even "slightly concerned" that there may be a serious retracement? Who are you concerned for? You should be happy with this because you might want to get back in at a lower price.

I get your comments, but perhaps it would be good to put them into more accurate perspective. We have the sales figures only up until 30 September. The SP at that time was .53c. The first significant sign-up announcement didn't happen until 2 weeks after this (16/10) and of course there has been a couple more sign-up announcements since then. The SP then shot up to a high of $1.75 and has since retraced to around $1.28 and seems to be holding there.

It is incorrect to say PEB has sold 3 units to date. In fact, we don't know how many units have been sold to date. What we do know is there have been three significant sign-up announcements subsequent to their last report and PEB have clearly identified who the real players are in their market and who else they need to sign up. They are working hard at doing this now.

Love reading your opinions Whip, but let's not try to sensationalise incorrect facts in order to justify an opinion.

[Minerbarejet]

There has been some really good debate over the last few pages, some have put a lot of effort into their posts and it is great to see good analysis for anyone curious on PEB.

I have been a staunch advocate for the past 10 years and at the moment of PEB as you may know and I appreciate knowledgeable argument from both sides. I agree with Whipmoney about the share price and I respect the opinions of those that believe PEB is not an investment that fits their criteria.

I’m really looking forward to the coming months with extreme anticipation and excitement (Woo Hoo) because recently the planets have really lined up for Pacific Edge and I believe the future is looking really great.

I’m sorry I cannot offer a share price projection and if I did it would be tantamount to the Drake Equation anyway; the share price has been really robust which has surprised me, however, I’m certainly not complaining at all and I’m quite happy to pause at $1.27 for a wee while.

(The Drake equation has proved controversial since several of its factors are currently unknown, and estimates of their values span a very wide range. This has led critics to label the equation a wild guesstimate, or even meaningless).
Many thanks for an interesting and prolonged diversion to read up on the Drake Equation - while we continue our journey into the unknown . Destination- a star with a waxing albedo, PEDUSA.

[Casino]

Which is around 9% penetration in the US hence why I suggested the market is pricing around 6.6%.

EDIT: sorry this should be ~5.5% had forgot to convert to NZD.


Undoubtedly there is already a lot of optimism priced in. If this was the full story, I would say that the stock is mispriced but I like to think that it is just expensive.

1. If the technology is as superior as we think, 80% market penetration appears to be an achievable goal.
2. We have additional products that are also of high value.
3. We have a platform and expertise that can help commercialise other biomarkers.
4. We are close to obtaining coverage by insurers.
5. These products are likely to enjoy great success in global markets.

These points don't translate to huge revenues in the foreseeable future but you can stick them to someone like Roche Diagnostics.

[MAC]

I’m seeing PEB as fairly priced at present but if we didn’t have differing views distributed about a nice bell shaped market perception then we wouldn’t have buyers, sellers or liquidity.

If PEB is worth $1.70 on a DCF basis and the SP is settling at $1.30 then the market consensus seems to be that the stock is 130/170 = 76% de-risked at this point in time.

Is that fair, I think so, perhaps I’m middle of the road and agree with the market.

A read of the FY13 annual report is recommended if risk is important to you. If we consider the six big startup phase risks generically facing biotech’s;

Clinical Trial Binary Risk: Now successfully completed, further reinforced with international user trials and journal of urology scrutinisation.

Technology Risk: Demonstrated as superior to existing technologies through independent trials.

Competitive Risk: They are first to the market place with this tech, there are high barriers to entry for followers, and the $20.5M for acceleration will help entrench PEB as the market leader.

Regulatory Approvals: Now achieved allowing for commercialisation, PEB have not sought FDA approval but I don’t see this as a significant risk, unlike some on the thread, but for specific reasons.

Schedule & Roll Out: They are three years into their commercialisation plan and are right on schedule, unlike some I don’t see any risk in first sales having occurred in October rather than in September, one month within a multi year plan, shrug.

Sales Ramp UP: Well this one is to go, PEB have a forward five year plan and it’s just the beginning, let’s watch it roll out and see.

[Whipmoney]

I’m seeing PEB as fairly priced at present but if we didn’t have differing views distributed about a nice bell shaped market perception then we wouldn’t have buyers, sellers or liquidity.

If PEB is worth $1.70 on a DCF basis and the SP is settling at $1.30 then the market consensus seems to be that the stock is 130/170 = 76% de-risked at this point in time.

Hi Mac. If you spot DCF value for PEB is $1.70 and the market price is $1.30 this isn't an indication that the stock is only 76% de-risked, rather it simply means that the stock is selling at a discount to its instrinsic value (i.e. it is a value buy).

The reason I say this is that through the process of calculating your spot DCF figure of $1.70 you are discounting the stock by your WACC (essentially cost of equity in this case as there is no debt), which includes your premium for taking on risk over and above the risk-free rate. As such risk is inherently priced into your DCF analysis through your discount factor.

[Whipmoney]

Whipmoney, given you sold out (or partly sold out?) at $1.40, why should you be even "slightly concerned" that there may be a serious retracement? Who are you concerned for? You should be happy with this because you might want to get back in at a lower price.

Despite the fact that i'm now out this doesn't preclude me from being slightly concerned as I wouldn't want to see my fellow ST posters lose a substantial amount of their capital in the event that the stock drops substantially.

Personally I don't see anything wrong with me throwing out a contrarian view (which I have substantiated with metrics) if this makes investors/holders at least reconsider the risks of their investment. In the worst case at least they'll re-check their research and resulting valuations and continue on their set course knowing the associated risks.

In the best case it may save someone a small fortune as others had done for me in the DIL thread.

EDIT: sorry I concede that its a bit of a black box with regard to actual sales, but I was working off the known figure of at least 3.

[couta1]

Despite the fact that i'm now out this doesn't preclude me from being slightly concerned as I wouldn't want to see my fellow ST posters lose a substantial amount of their capital in the event that the stock drops substantially.

Personally I don't see anything wrong with me throwing out a contrarian view (which I have substantiated with metrics) if this makes investors/holders at least reconsider the risks of their investment. In the worst case at least they'll re-check their research and resulting valuations and continue on their set course knowing the associated risks.

In the best case it may save someone a small fortune as others had done for me in the DIL thread.

EDIT: sorry I concede that its a bit of a black box with regard to actual sales, but I was working off the known figure of at least 3.
How do you know you saved a small fortune in Dil, where do you see their price in 1-2 yrs time? Could be back to $8

[Trader101]

Its good to see the different points of view about PEB. There's been some great research done on this company. Thank you to those's that have done this and contributed their thoughts/opinions.

[Dentie]

Its good to see the different points of view about PEB. There's been some great research done on this company. Thank you to those's that have done this and contributed their thoughts/opinions.

Welcome to the thread Trader. Feel free to add your thoughts etc as well. So many posts here with great info and education by a lot of really skilled and knowledgeable people. Plenty to learn!!

[Casino]

Despite the fact that i'm now out this doesn't preclude me from being slightly concerned as I wouldn't want to see my fellow ST posters lose a substantial amount of their capital in the event that the stock drops substantially.

Personally I don't see anything wrong with me throwing out a contrarian view (which I have substantiated with metrics) if this makes investors/holders at least reconsider the risks of their investment. In the worst case at least they'll re-check their research and resulting valuations and continue on their set course knowing the associated risks.

In the best case it may save someone a small fortune as others had done for me in the DIL thread.

EDIT: sorry I concede that its a bit of a black box with regard to actual sales, but I was working off the known figure of at least 3.


Keep it coming! Scrutiny of product and financials has no downside and can only help with making the right decisions.

[Whipmoney]

How do you know you saved a small fortune in Dil, where do you see their price in 1-2 yrs time? Could be back to $8

Because I got out in the 5's and got back in heavily in the 3's. DIL's a great stock but the trend was going heavily against me (as others pointed out). Just for the record my DCF is about $5.60 based on some very conservative sales numbers so i'm looking at plenty of upside.

[Minerbarejet]

Nice Xmas Email from Pacific Edge.
Liked this bit in particular.
"It has been an eventful year for Pacific Edge, and we look forward to an even more eventful and prosperous 2014!"

Aye to that
NB: Exclamation mark at end of quote is theirs.:)

[benjitara]

I've been reading a lot of posts here lately and I always get enjoyment in seeing peoples personalities come out in their posts. Yell "fire" in a theatre and you'll get a lot of people heading for the middle of the stampede. A online article about the current government today caused a large amount of people to exclaim about how bad their situations were and still are under the current government. That's not rational thinking speaking that's emotion. Shares and people are much the same.....

[winner69]

Nice Xmas Email from Pacific Edge.
Liked this bit in particular.
"It has been an eventful year for Pacific Edge, and we look forward to an even more eventful and prosperous 2014!"



Aye to that
NB: Exclamation mark at end of quote is theirs.:)


Is this balances's mate bit of news a day or two early

Or is major on a special mail list?

[Minerbarejet]

Is this balances's mate bit of news a day or two early

Or is major on a special mail list?
If you just sign up to get the newsletter with Pacific Edge I'm sure they will send you one.
Another newsletter late march they say with any updates to that point but will probably be stuff we already know

[hilskin]

Any one have access to this article in The Journal of Urology and could possible share what's in it.

Novel Urinary Markers for Detection of Bladder Cancer—Are we Failing?http://www.jurology.com/article/S0022-5347(13)05665-6/abstract?elsca1=etoc&elsca2=email&elsca3=0022-5347_201401_191_1&elsca4=elsevier (http://www.jurology.com/article/S0022-5347(13)05665-6/abstract?elsca1=etoc&elsca2=email&elsca3=0022-5347_201401_191_1&elsca4=elsevier)

[zymwh]

here you go:

http://ac.els-cdn.com/S0022534713056656/1-s2.0-S0022534713056656-main.pdf?_tid=9a1898f4-67c3-11e3-ac67-00000aab0f6b&acdnat=1387357735_9544cda93ea85db484a0fce7ddf97b12

[baller18]

here you go:

http://ac.els-cdn.com/S0022534713056656/1-s2.0-S0022534713056656-main.pdf?_tid=9a1898f4-67c3-11e3-ac67-00000aab0f6b&acdnat=1387357735_9544cda93ea85db484a0fce7ddf97b12

Doesn't work for me zymwh

[zymwh]

or here:

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0Byjp3TqgQPLqTzlfdVVBZ0ZLWlk/edit?usp=sharing

[hilskin]

here you go:

http://ac.els-cdn.com/S0022534713056656/1-s2.0-S0022534713056656-main.pdf?_tid=9a1898f4-67c3-11e3-ac67-00000aab0f6b&acdnat=1387357735_9544cda93ea85db484a0fce7ddf97b12

Thanks zymwh - chrome works

[Minerbarejet]

It would be great if we could see item 10 in the references - I have a hunch what that might be.

[baller18]

or here:

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0Byjp3TqgQPLqTzlfdVVBZ0ZLWlk/edit?usp=sharing

Thanks heaps!!!

[clip]

for people who don't have chrome and having issues, click that link then click file > download to save and open the pdf

[Xerof]

So, is this a critical poohooing of the article referred to in ref 10, which I assume contains the results which everyone has been waiting for to be published?

is the 'other' article also available to us?

was Balance's broker alluding to the Mengual et al article, only now to be shot down in flames?

[Casino]

So, is this a critical poohooing of the article referred to in ref 10, which I assume contains the results which everyone has been waiting for to be published?

is the 'other' article also available to us?

was Balance's broker alluding to the Mengual et al article, only now to be shot down in flames?


Guys, that's not us. The people slamming it are on our team:

http://www.pacificedgedx.com/about-us/advisory-boards/clinical-advisory/

[Minerbarejet]

Apologies, item 10 was first published online july 8th 2013 so its old news. Guess its just made the journal now.
The name Cx bladder is not mentioned.

[Xerof]

THIS IS THE TEST REFERRED TO IN THE ARTICLES IN THE JOURNAL OF UROLOGY and The Journal Mengual et al (page 261)

Laboratory and Department of Urology, Hospital Clínic, Institut d'Investigacions Biomèdiques Barcelona, Spain have identified genetic markers for further validation and clinical trial; the initial reports indicate that the specificity and sensitivity are ~80%-86% and 75% for prognosis.

So it looks like another marker that Cxbladder just pips at the post by ~4%-5% and market readiness, and we now need to see some real action in the Spanish market (similar to the American) and Cxbladder introduced into UCC clinical pathways ASAP.

But having said that; there is room for several bladder cancers tests in the world market and it was inevitable that competition will arrive, it may not be this test but it will come.

The critique of the process (not the tests) ‘Are we doing enough’ is by Department of Urology, Medical University, of Vienna and has no reference to Cxbladder, or any Pacific Edge documentation; and, no input from any PEB staff or advisors.

Mr magoo, Casino and minerbj, good work. Sorry for my reactive post, but in Aust outback at moment, with very limited access to any further detail, and wanted to ellicit an 'experts' retort of what looked on the surface to be a little negative

[zymwh]

item #10 if you are still interested

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0Byjp3TqgQPLqN0xhSno3RjJ3MVU/edit?usp=sharing

[Mista_Trix]

Take a look at the IBM 'predictions for the future',
http://www.ibm.com/smarterplanet/us/en/ibm_predictions_for_future/ideas/#Healthcare

Customised personalised health treatments - Likely DNA sequencing combined with biomarker identification.
Makes for interesting theorising as to future adaptions of biomarker research.

[Longhaul]

Expecting a jump today as US markets jump on tapering (hand me another Tui???) and the market turns back to risk-on.

Trying to determine exactly what you mean... I would have thought stocks would fall on the news?

[mrjeems]

Most US stocks would have already priced in the risk of tapering. Because its been hinted at for a while, plus improved economy etc = less QE. So there might be a knee jerk reaction initially, but doubt there will be any significant movement...

[Whipmoney]

QE Tapering was mostly priced in and given it was on the back of improved economic performance then the equity markets have reacted favourably to this. Obviously an improved economy relates to a reduced requirement for QE to counter any Potential deflationary impact on the economy.

[Longhaul]

Thanks all (love this forum!).

[jonu]

indeed, macro factors are there. just need a "Balanced" announcement now while we are "well positioned" ;)

I just topped up @ 125. Yes a positive unbalanced leak would go down well now. Maybe even a balanced announcement from the company itself. Nothing more tricky to pick than a top spinning unbalanced. It's likely to toss a wobbly and go all over the show.

[MAC]

If Wiki represents the universe's view, there has always been competition, saleability for PEB should ultimately come down to detection superiority and the rate at which they can disrupt, penetrate and keep ahead of the market.

“The gold standard for diagnosing bladder cancer is biopsy obtained during cystoscopy (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cystoscopy). Sometimes it is an incidental finding during cystoscopy.[14] (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bladder_cancer#cite_note-14) Urine cytology can be obtained in voided urine or at the time of the cystoscopy ("bladder washing (http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Bladder_washing&action=edit&redlink=1)"). Cytology is not very sensitive (a negative result cannot reliably exclude bladder cancer).[15] (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bladder_cancer#cite_note-15) There are newer non-invasive urine bound markers available as aids in the diagnosis of bladder cancer, including human complement factor H-related protein, high-molecular-weight carcinoembryonic antigen, and nuclear matrix protein 22 (NMP22).[16] (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bladder_cancer#cite_note-16) NMP22 is also available as a prescription home test. Other non-invasive urine based tests include the CertNDx Bladder Cancer Assay, which combines FGFR3 mutation detection with protein and DNA methylation markers to detect cancers across stage and grade, UroVysion, and Cxbladder.”

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bladder_cancer#Screening

[Wolf]

CxBladder has a lower specificity than the others, what does this mean?

[baller18]

CxBladder has a lower specificity than the others, what does this mean?
Identifying negative results

[TimmyTP]

CxBladder has a lower specificity than the others, what does this mean?
AndyLP's post from last month (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?2705-Pacific-Edge-Biotechnology&p=438579&viewfull=1#post438579) might help explain this - there is a link to an uncontroversial wikipedia page there that you can follow, too.

[Bobcat.]

Seller dropping down a notch to 125c (last week was selling at 130c). I wouldn't be surprised to see an SSH announcement soon, declaring his or her hand. Still bearish (in spite of the DJIA, NASDAQ and S&P500 flying earlier today).

My bid sits just 4% below market price at where there was earlier substantial support (120c), looking to buy on an anticipated dump. Alternatively if the sp goes through 126 and holds, I will buy on the way up. Either way, this is a gem of a stock and I don't want to be out for long.

My strategy is to stock-pick by fundamentals, but to time trades by chart-technicals.

BC

[Dentie]

A diagnostic test is one that predicts the presence of a disease. An ideal diagnostic test would always give the right answer, with a positive result in everyone with the disease and a negative result in everyone else.

Since no current diagnostic test is ideal, there is a trade-off between sensitivity and specificity. In cancer diagnosis, the need for this trade-off is rooted in the fact that cancer arises from our own tissues. It is not completely "foreign" to our systems like a virus or bacterium is.

Sensitivity. The measure of a test’s ability to accurately detect the presence of a disease. For example, a sensitivity of 90% means that out of 100 patients which actually have the disease, on average 90 are correctly diagnosed.

Specificity. The measure for a test’s ability to exclude a disease if it is truly not present. For example, a specificity of 90% means that out of 100 healthy people ten are falsely identified as having the disease.

And would be quick, safe, simple, painless, reliable, and inexpensive, like Cxbladder.

If I had to pick, as a patient, whether I prefer a "sensitivity" based test or a "specificity" based one.... ummm, I would be ringing up PEB's offices pretty quickly thank you.

[blobbles]

One more day until Balance fires his broker?

[clip]

One more day until Balance fires his broker?

Their HY report is out - so he's not necessarily wrong :P

[Bobcat.]

One more day until Balance fires his broker?

Anyone putting their trust in brokers end up broker. DYOR.

[MAC]

Nice enough half year report outlook;

“Looking forward, over the next six months we expect to deliver:

• Contracted commercial relationships with National Network Providers in the USA.

• A steady increase in the growth of the adoption of Cxbladder in all markets.

• A completion of the raising of capital that will drive an acceleration of our sales force rollout in 2014

• The gearing of our New Zealand team to deliver two new products to the market over the coming 2014 financial year.”

[clip]

Can anyone give me a bit more info abotu this table on page 6 -

State ment of Financial Position
As at 30 September 2013
Unaudited
Sept 2013 ($000)
Audited
March 2013 ($000)
Unaudited
Sept 2012 ($000)
Cash 6,381 10,676 14,507
Trade Receivables 197 132 127

trade receivables increased from 132000 to 197000 - does anyone know what trade receivables includes, is this from product sales? (not just cxbladder but anything?)

[Dentie]

Anyone putting their trust in brokers end up broker. DYOR.

Aye aye to that BC!!!

[Snow Leopard]

Can anyone give me a bit more info abotu this table on page 6 -

State ment of Financial Position
As at 30 September 2013
Unaudited
Sept 2013 ($000)
Audited
March 2013 ($000)
Unaudited
Sept 2012 ($000)
Cash 6,381 10,676 14,507
Trade Receivables 197 132 127

trade receivables increased from 132000 to 197000 - does anyone know what trade receivables includes, is this from product sales? (not just cxbladder but anything?)

Interest earned on cash but not yet paid.
GST refunds due
Debtors

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[clip]

thanks PT :)

[Mista_Trix]

Really? No one has any other comments about these highlights in the HY today? after all the speculation about Balances post and we get basically get silence? did xmas come early for everyone or am I missing something?

Quiet excitement :)
Not much more to describe it to be honest.
Reflecting on losses and gains from the year. Thinking about the challenging and diverse opinions on here.
Good times had by all, onwards and upwards !!

[Snow Leopard]

Really? No one has any other comments about these highlights in the HY today? after all the speculation about Balances post and we get basically get silence? did xmas come early for everyone or am I missing something?

I am going to assume that you are getting all hot and bothered by something in the Chairman & Chief Executive Report bit of the Half Year Report which a lot of us read when it was originally published in the Preliminary Half Year Report three weeks ago.

Now I will admit that the last sentence of the sixth paragraph has changed from:

"We have now officially launched"

to:

"CxBladder has now officially launched in the USA"

but I am not convinced that this is significant new information.


I have also scoured the Notes to the Financial Statements for hidden meaning but I have been unable to find the Da Vinci Code anywhere.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[janner]

I am going to assume that you are getting all hot and bothered by something in the Chairman & Chief Executive Report bit of the Half Year Report which a lot of us read when it was originally published in the Preliminary Half Year Report three weeks ago.

Now I will admit that the last sentence of the sixth paragraph has changed from:

"We have now officially launched"

to:

"CxBladder has now officially launched in the USA"

but I am not convinced that this is significant new information.


I have also scoured the Notes to the Financial Statements for hidden meaning but I have been unable to find the Da Vinci Code anywhere.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger


Agree.. Buyer beware as they say !!!

[blobbles]

blobles, the report is out...

Key points in next 6 months

-HMO's still being talked to such as Kaiser and Intermountain.
- commercial contracts with US national network providers
- gearing up of NZ team for TWO NEW products being launched

me likey a lot. tgese next six months are going to be VERY interesting!

cheers balance :)


Uhhh... isn't this the final report from the preliminary we got a few weeks ago? Had a quick skim over and couldn't find anything new...

Where is my Christmas present Balance? :p

[Minerbarejet]

If you had two items that varied somewhat to announce to the market which would you announce first?
The lesser being a rehash of known facts or the greater being a disclosure of more importance.
You wouldnt want to take the gloss off by reiterating already known stuff that wasn't particularly outstanding last
Lets see what today brings.:)

[Mista_Trix]

You're a flea! Try and add a little value to the thread!

Ironic.

That's a friendly way to kick off a thread on a Friday :-S

[Balance]

Uhhh... isn't this the final report from the preliminary we got a few weeks ago? Had a quick skim over and couldn't find anything new...

Where is my Christmas present Balance? :p

I had a wonderful Christmas lunch with my broker yesterday - champagne and the best steak money can buy (imho) in NZ.

Thanked him for a great year and to show my appreciation on a job well done in 2014.

[Dentie]

There are some very good brokers out there... you are obviously looking in the wrong places.

Want to tell us who yours is?

[baller18]

Want to tell us who yours is?

The one who told him milford was buying Dil?

[Balance]

Want to tell us who yours is?

Best way to get a good broker is to get a referrer from a successful investor.

Different people suit different brokers - ie. traders vs long term investors, low risk vs high risk, small amounts vs large amounts. Like a doctor or dentist, best way to look around until you find the right one who suits your style, your risk profile and your temperament.

[Minerbarejet]

I had a wonderful Christmas lunch with my broker yesterday - champagne and the best steak money can buy (imho) in NZ.

Thanked him for a great year and to show my appreciation on a job well done in 2014.
2013 i can see it as appropriate, 2014 suggests a rather rosy picture ahead of us at the moment
Cheers
Minerbarejet

[Balance]

2013 i can see it as appropriate, 2014 suggests a rather rosy picture ahead of us at the moment
Cheers
Minerbarejet

Thx for correction!

2013 it is!

[Minerbarejet]

Thx for correction!

2013 it is!
Wasnt really an attempt to correct - it was more about if you were being subtle then it hadnt gone unnoticed.
Cheers

[Whipmoney]

Hmm the lifespan of the CxBladder product (and most biotech for that matter) may now be looking significantly reduced:

http://www.businessinsider.com.au/is-this-the-elixir-of-youth-researchers-find-way-to-reverse-aging-2013-12

http://med.unsw.edu.au/prognosis/anti-ageing-drug-breakthrough

Interesting stuff with scary ramifications.

[clip]

^From reading that it seems to me it is inferring a link between cancer and old-age (or rather, age-ing, to be more accurate). I'm not sure I would agree with that relationship? Kids get cancer too. While it does say the drugs would be preventative for cancer, it says the synthetic activates receptors which slow ageing and age-related diseases - sure cancer may be more common later in life but it's not only old people who are affected?

[couta1]

Anyone putting their trust in brokers end up broker. DYOR.
Can vouche for this firsthand Bobcat via Hanover,St laurence etc plus CNU,solution learn from your mistakes and use DB or ASB, 5 out of 7 broking firms chose CNU as a standout for 2013, i wonder how many chose PEB?

[Dentie]

Try this for clarification:

Professor Sinclair formed a started up company Sirtris to develop the anti-ageing technology. This was subsequently sold to GlaxoSmithKline (GSK).

HyperLink: Fountain of Youth Drugs (http://www.xconomy.com/boston/2013/03/12/glaxosmithkline-shuts-down-sirtris-five-years-after-720m-buyout/)



You're an absolute "fountain" of clarifying information yourself Hancocks!!

Thanks!

[Dentie]

Nice to see interest hasn't completely waned before Xmas ...up 4c today (on low volume though)...but probably better to see what happens at 5pm-ish when the pro's come out to play..

[MAC]

Try this for clarification:

Professor Sinclair formed a started up company Sirtris to develop the anti-ageing technology. This was subsequently sold to GlaxoSmithKline (GSK).

HyperLink: Fountain of Youth Drugs (http://www.xconomy.com/boston/2013/03/12/glaxosmithkline-shuts-down-sirtris-five-years-after-720m-buyout/)



And of course GlaxoSmithCline was indeed founded in New Zealand near Bunnythorpe in 1873.

Perhaps PEB will be as big a success story some day, though I doubt somewhat we will have to wait 140 years. I would be gutted if PEB got taken over even if it was by Glaxo.

http://gsk.co.nz/history.html

[barney]

A small snippet from todays NBR regarding the NZX50.

" Hallenstein is in danger of slipping off the index in March, with Dunedin based biotechnology firm Pacific Edge plumped by Forsyth Barr to take its place."

[TimmyTP]

Beautiful, so we can expect some panic buying from the big boys if it does happen! anybody know when the next index update is for this to potentially happen?
A Quarterly Index Review is conducted on the first Friday in March, June, September and December each year. If the first Friday of the relevant month falls on a non-trading day, then the Quarterly Index Review occurs on the previous trading day. Indices are rebalanced after market close on the third Friday of each month, with resulting index changes effective on the next business day.

A Quarterly Index Review Update Announcement is released seven trading days before the effective date, i.e. usually the Wednesday before the second
Friday of the month. This announcement will give changes in index composition and list Indexed Shares numbers for all constituents, revised to reflect all changes to NZ Free Float Shares for example due to Substantial Security Holder or Allotment Notices.

[gv1]

A small snippet from todays NBR regarding the NZX50.

" Hallenstein is in danger of slipping off the index in March, with Dunedin based biotechnology firm Pacific Edge plumped by Forsyth Barr to take its place."
Sorry exactly where in NBR does it say.

[barney]

Sorry exactly where in NBR does it say.

I havn't got it in front of me at the moment, but about three or four pages in. The article on brokers picking stocks for 2014.

[barney]

Can someone post a link to that article? Too many beers this arvo, can't seem to find it ;) Cheers

I read it in the print copy so not sure if there's an online version.

[couta1]

I havn't got it in front of me at the moment, but about three or four pages in. The article on brokers picking stocks for 2014.
ILL bet there are not picking CNU for 2014 but hopefully Sum along with Peb?

[Dentie]

I have been trying to get together concise definitions and information to help me get my head around the clinical value of Cxbladder (and associated value to urologists) and I may be getting close.

Definition: Sensitivity, the ability of a test to correctly classify an individual as ‘diseased′.

Definition: Specificity, the ability of a test to correctly classify an individual as ‘disease–free’.

Sensitivity and specificity are inversely proportional, meaning that as the sensitivity increases, the specificity decreases & vice versa.

Cxbladder has an overall sensitivity of 82% at 85% specificity.

Definition: Positive Predictive Value (PPV) is the percentage of patients with a positive test who actually have the disease.

Cxbladder has a positive predictive value (PPV) of 68%.

Definition: Negative Predictive Value (NPV) is the percentage of patients with a negative test who do not have the disease.

Cxbladder has a negative predictive value (NPV) of 97%.

If you read these definitions and statistics and then look at the sample ‘RESULTS’ form below you can see how Cxbladder can very accurately screen patients:


that have a high probability of No disease (NPV 97%) hence the financial savings on the expensive clinical work up; and,
those who have a low probability of disease (NPV 94%) however, they will require monitoring for a change in the gene expression pattern; and,
We can identify those that have a high probability of disease (PPV 68%) and they will most probably require a Cystoscopy, CT scan or UltraSound to confirm the diagnosis.



As always Hancocks, your research into PEB is never exhausted - the results of which I, for one, greatly appreciate. Just goes to prove that you can never over analyse a Company or its offering.

Wouldn't surprise me if PEB shoulder tapped you to go on the payroll!

Thank you for your teachings. Have a great festive season.

[Leftfield]

Agree with Dentie. Hancocks… you rock. Great post #5749.

[Casino]

This site is useful too if you're unclear on what these values mean in regards to true/false positives/negatives: http://www.med.emory.edu/EMAC/curriculum/diagnosis/sensand.h (http://www.med.emory.edu/EMAC/curriculum/diagnosis/sensand.htm)tm

But you also have to break down the results and see how useful they are for clinicians. Another test may have higher sensitivity but they might only find benign tumors. Here's a video that PEB made for their clinical study:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m7HNJhQjdwE

Couple of things to consider is that specificity was deliberately set to 85%. As a result of that, they ended up with a sensitivity of 82%. The next studies will show if these numbers will hold up in independent cohorts. If the results are convincing, CMS coverage should go through.

[janner]

Agree with Dentie. Hancocks… you rock. Great post #5749.

Have questioned your enthusiasm in the past Hancocks..

Did not discount it.. have watched .. and .. Purchased..

A minor holding.. To which I have upgraded .. Thinking now may be the time to get serious.. :-))

Thanks..

[Minerbarejet]

Mr Hancocks has been the guru on this thread for some time now - he started it after all
Perhaps we should all pause to reflect after a very good year what a fortunate thing that was.
Cheers and Happy New Year
Minerbarejet

[MAC]

Growth in lab technician’s has to be a sign ..........

http://www.linkedin.com/jobs2/view/10145765

[Joshuatree]

I won't throw out the tree just yet then:) ;have one bottle of bubbly left over from xmas ,waiting to pop; cheers for that.

[barney]

http://www.odt.co.nz/news/business/286676/pacific-edge-business

Certainly getting some good nation wide coverage.

Would be nice to see the CMS coverage early in the new year.

[MAC]

It has been a big year for recognition of PEB, small Dunedin start-up developing a world leading product on a tenth of the R&D budget required elsewhere, that in itself sets a culture for fostering forward prosperity in IMO.

They do like to keep us on our toe’s though, I had just got comfortable valuing PEB on a five year NZ$100M target as per the 2013 capital raising documentation, but from Chris Swan today in that article, he appears to have flip flopped back to the previous target as was stated via the media earlier in 2013.

“He reiterated earlier estimates, of achieving an annual US$100 million ($123 million) turnover within five years, noting the US$100 million was mid-range of estimates”

I’m sticking with the lower target of NZ$100M until Chris and David have a chat.

[MAC]

just the one or are there others there Mac? cheers for keeping us up to date.

PEB has consistently been in the top 10 of buys for Direct Broking clients compared to sells over the past few weeks for retail traders. Appears word has definitely got out and that retail traders are gladly buying off our big sellers. Very diverse shareholding compared to other shares.

There are presently 10 folk including management in the Pennsylvania lab, it is very highly automated and they will never require a great deal of lab staff, I see advertisement’s for lab technicians, in all balanced probability, as a positive sign of sales traction.

Although one could anticipate that a generic job add could well be placed to fill multiple open positions, it perhaps could also be a replacement for a resignation, perhaps someone didn't last six months.

[Slam dunk]

Enjoyed the article. Two things in particular:
1. Swann is hopeful of gaining CMS accreditation early 2014.
2. Swann is confident the company will be processing "several tens of thousands of tests" during 2014.

[Wolf]

Has anyone given any thought to what the two new products may be? and their associated markets?

[Wolf]

Cheer's Sparky

[Casino]

Cxcolorectal seems to be the next one:

http://www.pacificedgedx.com/products/pipeline/ (http://www.pacificedgedx.com/products/pipeline/)

[AndyLP]

Wolf, the new products that are the closest to commercial release also belong to the bladder cancer detection process.

The cxBladder family has two new products for commercial release next year.
cxBladder-triage is to help clinicians segregate patients who have presented to the clinician with haematuria, who do not have bladder cancer.
cxBladder-predict is to help determine the severity of the bladder cancer once it has been detected.

This information is from the capital raising presentation in October

5248

[Casino]

Wolf, the new products that are the closest to commercial release also belong to the bladder cancer detection process.

The cxBladder family has two new products for commercial release next year.
cxBladder-triage is to help clinicians segregate patients who have presented to the clinician with haematuria, who do not have bladder cancer.
cxBladder-predict is to help determine the severity of the bladder cancer once it has been detected.

This information is from the capital raising presentation in October

5248

It makes sense to prioritize bladder products, which won't add to the sales costs.

[blobbles]

Very good article with a few new things of note for me:

10s of thousands next year... That is really awesome and I don't think he would have said it if they weren't ramping up to this number already. 20k tests with high growth will be an awesome half year result!

25 sales and marketing staff in the US... Wow. The cost of an extra 20 staff is high, I doubt they would be looking at that unless they were recovering the cost of employing them through sales, or sales growth looking high. Again indicates significant sales ramping up.

They constantly update and improve the accuracy of their tests, I am guessing through samples sent by test users, making barriers to entry higher and higher.

What a great report from the company!

[barney]

There is a slightly longer article in the hard copy ODT than the one on line, with three mentions of the company atracting the attentions of large pharmaceutical companies. Lets hope it's not sooner rather than later.

[etrader]

Strategic release of the article when all the mum and dad investors have time to read what most of us already know, the exposure is only positive for PEB.

Cash in the tin
Debt free
Large investment made in research at a tenth the equivalent of doin it in USA
Good spread of investors
Global exposure
20 percent of the population now have access to it through the networks they've signed up with.


All the above is why PEB is my largest holding and will continue to be.

Early new year should get back to 1.50 level now all this has been established.

Just my views DYOR

[Casino]

There is a slightly longer article in the hard copy ODT than the one on line, with three mentions of the company atracting the attentions of large pharmaceutical companies. Lets hope it's not sooner rather than later.

At least it should be as painful as possible for them!

[Dentie]

I may have missed something, but I note they are now quoting NZD$320 per test cost. Until now, we've been operating on a US$550 per test.

I wonder whether the NZD$320 is the cost associated with each test (ie - COS)?

Any comments on this?

[Dentie]

Cheers Mr H.

[Minerbarejet]

Forsyth Barr seem to be in possession of some information we dont have. Ms Van Leeuwen states that the focus will be on signing up MORE urology practices. Wasnt aware they had signed up any yet or did I miss something. I dont suppose once things get rolling that every signup will warrant a market announcement anyway.:)


Dont suppose you would know anything about this, Balance?:)


And A Happy, Prosperous New Year to you All

[Goldstein]

It has been a big year for recognition of PEB, small Dunedin start-up developing a world leading product on a tenth of the R&D budget required elsewhere, that in itself sets a culture for fostering forward prosperity in IMO..

Is it fair to say this is because they are only really doing the D and not the R. The R coming from Otago Medical School, John Hopkins, etc?

Disc: Doing research before investing.

[etrader]

The depth side on the buys look like mum and dads piling in at 1.30 limit with 16 buyers on smaller parcels of 6k each or want to drop a loose 10k into the story.

My pick is it will get into top 50 early next year as they said, instos will get their position and the first multi national will show serious interest late next year which will drive the first take over offer r in the $3 range which will get no where end up 4.50 by the time it's delisted.

Just my view folks let's ride this story of a little kiwi company to take on the majors globally.

[GR8DAY]

......Kiaora fellow PEBers and HNY to you all. Im "feeling" good once again about this one and also "feel" a run through to $1.50sh is quite on the cards. Topping up accordingly.

[GR8DAY]

.....ha cheers Moosie! ( no never touch the RB stuff m8, even Green Tea flips me out at times!)

[blockhead]

Blocky doesn't always get it right so I am pleased with my dabble @ 1.30 this morning.

7% is good on any day

[Minerbarejet]

Blocky doesn't always get it right so I am pleased with my dabble @ 1.30 this morning.

7% is good on any day
You in and out already Blocky?
Could you please give us some indication of how you managed to purchase shares at 1.30 in the morning - we would all love to know
Cheers:)

[geo]

Welcome aboard the PEB train to all new buyers up 0.09c so far.

Lots lining up to buy great response to the ODT article, topped up with a few more myself be surprised to see it go down.

[blockhead]

You in and out already Blocky?
Could you please give us some indication of how you managed to purchase shares at 1.30 in the morning - we would all love to know
Cheers:)

No trickery involved Miner, I had my order in @ 1.30 pre open, from memory there were buyers @ 1.30, 1.31, and 1.35 and one seller at 1.30.

So, $1.30 it was

Still holding so gain not realised yet

[777]

You in and out already Blocky?
Could you please give us some indication of how you managed to purchase shares at 1.30 in the morning - we would all love to know
Cheers:)

Opening trades. Blocky's plus mine plus 11 other trades.

1 - 13 10:00:35 am 130 84,824 $110,271 13

[Minerbarejet]

No trickery involved Miner, I had my order in @ 1.30 pre open, from memory there were buyers @ 1.30, 1.31, and 1.35 and one seller at 1.30.

So, $1.30 it was

Still holding so gain not realised yet
Guess I asked for that. Lol.
Comes from taking things too literally, thought you meant you bought them at 1.30am. Roflmao.
Must be the cold rumedy
Sorry
noah fence:)
(withdraws quietly into cave and extinguishes candle )

[Dentie]

Hi all + happy new year ...

I have some more learning to do here please ... hopefully someone can help?

In today's action so far, I note - even though on lowish volume and no professionals/big boys around yet (?), the SP goes up to 1.36. then I note someone sell what appears to be only a handful of shares (less than 200??) at $1.33.

I check the depth and see buyers outnumbering sellers by nearly 3 to 1 (with dollars not far behind this). With this sort of buying pressure, I am having trouble understand why a seller would sell a handful - just to drop the SP it seems? I know there are lots of reasons why people sell, but when the number of shares sold only makes a dot on the graph, surely it can't be because they are short of $200 or so - can it?

Can someone enlighten me on what may lie behind this please? Cheers.

[Goldstein]

Hi all + happy new year ...

I have some more learning to do here please ... hopefully someone can help?

In today's action so far, I note - even though on lowish volume and no professionals/big boys around yet (?), the SP goes up to 1.36. then I note someone sell what appears to be only a handful of shares (less than 200??) at $1.33.

I check the depth and see buyers outnumbering sellers by nearly 3 to 1 (with dollars not far behind this). With this sort of buying pressure, I am having trouble understand why a seller would sell a handful - just to drop the SP it seems? I know there are lots of reasons why people sell, but when the number of shares sold only makes a dot on the graph, surely it can't be because they are short of $200 or so - can it?

Can someone enlighten me on what may lie behind this please? Cheers.

Hi Dentie,

A seller can sell 'on market'. So most of their sell may take place at say $1.36 with the remainder at $1.33. I doubt anybody would spend $200 to manipulate the share price.

[Goldstein]

Also, a Wellington-boy's restaurant bill maybe came in today a bit steep after ordering too many bottles of Je suis une boule de graisse visqueuse qui ne connaîtraient pas un bon vin si il m'a frappé dans le visage, 1985 vintage :)

Bad experience in Wellington recently Moosie?

[Whipmoney]

Sometimes sellers see better opportunities elsewhere and make snap decisions to sell at the current price and take their money elsewhere (for example, gold right now is spiking, see OGC and ASX miners). If they are short of cash and think the short-term benefits of selling PEB for a quicker gain, they will do so.

Or they may just perceive it as over-valued..? De-risking etc..

[Whipmoney]

Certianly with the massive gains in 2013, but I thought most of that would have been done by fund managers/instos who have a mandate to do so and would have done so by end of December? Never know these days; trades don't come with notes attached unfortunately!

To be honest i've talked to a few people from various funds and their understanding/appetite for PEB seems limited at best so I would be curious to know what insto's are actually in it.

I love the company but the Price-to-Sales ratio is a dead giveaway that its currently overvalued relative to revenue.

[Dentie]

Hi Dentie,

A seller can sell 'on market'. So most of their sell may take place at say $1.36 with the remainder at $1.33. I doubt anybody would spend $200 to manipulate the share price.

Thanks Goldstein (& our Canadian friend of course...)

[janner]

To be honest i've talked to a few people from various funds and their understanding/appetite for PEB seems limited at best so I would be curious to know what insto's are actually in it.

I love the company but the Price-to-Sales ratio is a dead giveaway that its currently overvalued relative to revenue.


So .. Shut up and BUY.. :-))

[skid]

Buy, when you think they are overvalued and sell when you think they are undervalued--right Janner??:)

[MAC]

Pacific Edge Limited are past the product development and clinical trials phases and it’s all about marketing (revenue) growth now. It is the growth prospects of the company and product that I invested in. It has never been an investment based on the financial fundamentals (cause there ain’t none); however, I definitely analysed the governance, staff, oncology segment, product pipeline and the competition and market place (as much as I could) it is only those strategic fundamentals that you could really base an investment decision in Pacific Edge Limited on.

Agree with all that Hancock’s, although consideration of risks and an assessment of the potential forward valuation of a stock is also important, all helps balance the outlook and ‘comfort’ in a long term hold.

Aside, Hancock’s have you or anyone else on the forum by some remote chance ever visited the Hershey laboratory ?

[geo]

Never fall in love with your investment.
Look for strong companies that have at least 10 years of compounding revenue, and little or no debt, pay dividends that increase every year, that's what all stock investing is all about, if you want a good night's sleep.

But the reason I invested in PEB is that it will turn into one of those safe reliable companies, and are well on the way.

[Minerbarejet]

This is the Mission Statement of the American website of MEDSCAPE:

To provide clinicians and other healthcare professionals with the most timely comprehensive and relevant clinical information to improve patient care and to make the clinician's task of information gathering simpler, more fruitful, and less time-consuming; and To provide physicians with the educational tools needed to stay current in their practice.

And, here is a link to their review of Urine Tumour Markers updated 23 October 2013.

Hyperlink: Urine Tumour Markers (http://emedicine.medscape.com/article/1953022-overview#aw2aab6b2)

Read the comparisons between all of the reviewed tests to get the full picture; and, if you follow the ‘more’ link after the authors name (just below the title), you will see his affiliations and disclosures; which is also very interesting.

Author: Gary David Steinberg, MD, FACS; Chief Editor: Bradley Fields Schwartz, DO, FACS.

The bottom line for those that don't like the jargon is this reference at the bottom of the Cxbladder review:

This offers a potential adjunct to cystoscopy for the diagnosis of urothelial carcinoma.

This would replace Cytology! So it is still looking good punters as the other tests still come up short in the areas of convenience, cost and accuracy and this is exactly how it is being marketed ........
Thanks once again Hancocks - more interesting reading.
Another little gem I found in amongst this lot is found in surveillance for recurrent bladder cancer. Overview of bladder cancer surveillance - down the bottom at cystoscopy." Carcinoma in situ (CIS) is missed by cystoscopy 22 per cent of the time" Didnt know that!

[barney]

In last weeks ODT article, Chris Swann mentioned that they hoped CMS coverage would come through early in 2014. That's quite a change to last years June update where they said talks may continue through to August 2014.

He also reiterated the earlier estimate of US$100M revenue within five years, noting that that was a mid range estimate. Was also confident that the company would be processing several tens of thousands of tests in 2014. David Darling was quoted a couple of months ago that the US$100m revenue target may come earlier than five years.

Add to that the advetising of a new lab technician position in Hershey and I thinks things may well be rolling along even more quickly than even the most optomistic of shareholders would have believed.

I think 2014 might see a few suprises on the positive side.

[Goldstein]

Looks like PEB might test $1.40 today.

[Dentie]

Looks like PEB might test $1.40 today.


Doesn't seem to be a lot in its way as it goes towards $1.50.

[GR8DAY]

......just as predicted! Sparky's calling $1.70/1.75 in no time?

[janner]

Buy, when you think they are overvalued and sell when you think they are undervalued--right Janner??:)


Say what you will skid... It is still a BUY !! IMHO .. :-)

[Goldstein]

Picked a small parcel up last week at $1.33/1.34. Doubled it at $1.37 this morning.

It seems a long time ago now.

The SP graph looks lovely from a TA perspective. Sometimes I wonder whether TA works just because of the population of TAists out there.

[False Profit]

Depth shows big sellers at 150. Keep pushing and sell at your peril!!!

[mrjeems]

Depth shows big sellers at 150. Keep pushing and sell at your peril!!!

So I'm guessing we'll be sitting just under 150 for a while until those guys get taken out...?

[alistair85]

What you guys think about getting in at around the 1.40-45 mark. Too expensive or get in while you can?

[False Profit]

One would presume so but we're fast approaching...

[AndyLP]

What you guys think about getting in at around the 1.40-45 mark. Too expensive or get in while you can?

What's your investment philosophy alistair?- if you're prepared to hold for 5+ years, I'm fairly confident a few cents either way will be fairly inconsequential on this stock.